Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The inquiry into allegations of misconduct by Australian special forces in Afghanistan is examining 55 separate incidents or issues, according to the Inspector-General of the Australian Defence Force report, tabled Tuesday.

These involve “predominantly” allegations of unlawful killings of non-combatants or those no longer combatants, the report says, but also allegations of cruelty.

The IGADF has been conducting the inquiry since 2016 “to determine whether there is any substance to rumours and allegations” that members of the Special Operations Task Group in Afghanistan may have breached the law during 2005-2016.

Originally ordered by then army chief Angus Campbell, the inquiry is led by Justice Paul Brereton, and so far has examined 338 witnesses. It is now “approaching the final stage of evidence-taking,” the report says, making it clear the inquiry is not a criminal investigations but an “administrative process”.

“At the end of the reporting period there were 55 separate incidents or issues under inquiry covering a range of alleged breaches of the Law of Armed Conflict, predominantly unlawful killings of persons who were non-combatants or were no longer combatants, but also ‘cruel treatment’ of such persons.

“The Inquiry is also examining incidents relevant to the organisational, operational and cultural environment which may have enabled the alleged Law of Armed Conflict breaches.”

The focus is not decisions made in the “heat of battle”, but “the treatment of persons who were clearly non-combatants or who were no longer combatants”.

The report stresses the difficulty of the inquiry, especially because its origin did not come from clear cut circumstances.

“The starting-point for the IGADF Afghanistan Inquiry – vague rumours of Special Forces soldiers’ very serious wrongdoing over a period of more than ten years – was much less well defined.

“The Inquiry team has had to find out what rumours there were, and then to try to track each rumour through multiple witnesses and documentary records back to its source.

“It has also taken some years for members of the Special Forces community – both those who continue to serve and former members – to develop sufficient confidence in the Inquiry and the genuineness of Defence senior leadership’s desire to find out if the rumours are true, to be prepared to make disclosures to the Inquiry.

“Gaining the confidence and trust of some of these witnesses, whose ADF careers have been spent in an environment in which secrecy is treated as fundamental, has required considerable effort and time.

“As this has been progressively achieved, more witnesses have been prepared to make disclosures, and new evidence has continued to emerge, some resulting in new lines of inquiry, and some reinforcing or corroborating existing lines of inquiry. During the reporting period and even now, some witnesses are only just becoming willing to make disclosures.”

The inquiry will report to Campbell, who is now Chief of the Defence Force. Apart from dealing with the allegations of misconduct the report will include “a review of the structural, operational, command and cultural environment in which these acts may have occurred.”

– ref. Inquiry probing 55 matters relating to special forces’ alleged misconduct in Afghanistan – https://theconversation.com/inquiry-probing-55-matters-relating-to-special-forces-alleged-misconduct-in-afghanistan-132454

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The Coalition government has supported Labor’s motion in the Senate to call for men’s rights activist Bettina Arndt to be stripped of her Order of Australia award over her comments on last week’s horrendous murder-suicide in Brisbane.

The successful motion puts more pressure on the Council for the Order of Australia to remove the AM Arndt received in the Australia Day honours.

The Senate motion was carried 55-2, with only One Nation’s Pauline Hanson and Malcolm Roberts voting against it.

It said Arndt’s comments “are reckless and abhorrent”.

“The values that underpin Ms. Arndt’s views on this horrific family violence incident are not consistent with her retaining her Order of Australia,” it said.

Read more: View from The Hill: Conundrum for Order of Australian Council over Bettina Arndt’s award

A public furore arose after Arndt tweeted her support of remarks by a Queensland policeman (which he later apologised for) suggesting police were keeping an “open mind” into the Brisbane killings.

Hannah Clarke and her three children were in a car when her estranged husband, Rowan Baxter, set them on fire. He then killed himself. The children died at the scene; Clarke died later in hospital.

Arndt tweeted, “Congratulations to the Queensland police for keeping an open mind and awaiting proper evidence, including the possibility that Rowan Baxter might have been ‘driven too far.’”

The Senate said Arndt’s statement “has the potential to bring the Order of Australia, instituted by Her Majesty The Queen, into disrepute.

“Order of Australia awards are a privilege and an honour and come with responsibilities.”

Arndt received the award “for significant service to the community as a social commentator, and to gender equity through advocacy for men”.

Labor’s deputy leader in the Senate, Kristina Keneally, made it clear the motion was making no condemnation of the Queensland police.

– ref. Government backs Labor call for Bettina Arndt to lose Order of Australia award – https://theconversation.com/government-backs-labor-call-for-bettina-arndt-to-lose-order-of-australia-award-132446

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Bright, Senior Lecturer of Addiction, Edith Cowan University

Drinking patterns tend to change as we age. The older we get, the more likely we are to drink on a daily basis. But older adults often perceive that drinking is only a problem if a person appears drunk.

Australia’s draft alcohol guidelines recommend healthy adults drink no more than ten standard drinks per week and no more than four in a day. This is down from 14 standard drinks per week in the previous guidelines and no more than two standard drinks in any one day.

Anything above this is considered risky drinking because it increases the risk of alcohol-related diseases, such as cancer, and injuries.

Between 2007 and 2016, there was a 17% increase in risky drinking among Australians aged 60-69. In 2016, 18.2% of 60-69 year olds drank at risky levels.

Among women, those aged 50-59 years are now more likely to drink at risky levels (13%) than any other age group, including women aged 18 to 24 years (12.8%).

Read more: Older Australians’ drinking on the rise and they don’t know the risks

Older adults are more vulnerable to alcohol’s interactions with medicines, medical conditions that can be made worse by alcohol, and age-related changes in the metabolism of alcohol that mean we become more intoxicated from drinking the same amount of alcohol. Alcohol can also increase the risk of falls.

For some older people, this means that maintaining their current levels of alcohol consumption as they age inadvertently places them at risk.

Alcohol and many medications don’t mix

Older adults are more likely to be taking a number of medications; about two-thirds take four or more.

Many of these medications can interact with alcohol.

Our research among risky drinkers aged 58 to 87 found 92% were taking medications that when combined with large amounts of alcohol could lead to serious adverse effects. This included common medications prescribed for high blood pressure.

For 97% of the people we studied, drinking alcohol reduced the effectiveness of the medication. This included Nexium, a medication commonly prescribed to treat gastric reflux.

Why are older Australians drinking more?

While age-related factors such as bereavement and retirement can increase the likelihood of drinking at risky levels, most often alcohol is part of an enjoyable social life as people age.

In our research, alcohol use was closely linked to social engagement: more frequent opportunities to socialise were associated with more frequent drinking.

Among retirement village residents, having access to a social group “on tap” also encouraged more frequent drinking.

In a recent study of Australian and Danish women drinkers aged 50 to 70, those who were drinking at risky levels said overwhelmingly their drinking was a normal, acceptable and enjoyable part of their lives, so long as they appeared to be in control.

In doing so, they were able to mentally distance their drinking from current and future health problems.

Recognising heavy drinking as a health issue

Australia’s draft alcohol guidelines don’t provide any specific recommendations for older adults, beyond those recommended for adults in general.

Rather, they recommend older adults speak with their GP to determine an appropriate level of drinking based on their medical history and medications they are taking.

Read more: Cap your alcohol at 10 drinks a week: new draft guidelines

But our research found only 30% of older men and 20% of older women could recall their GP asking about their alcohol use over the past 12 months, regardless of what medication they were taking.

Even fewer could recall their community pharmacist asking about their alcohol use.

Promisingly, almost all participants were open to their GP asking about their alcohol use, particularly in relation to medication.

And more than half believed it was OK for their community pharmacist to raise this issue with them when being dispensed medication.

So what can we do about it?

Recognising the social context to older adults’ drinking and other drug use, and understanding how they make sense of these behaviours, is an important first step in preventing and minimising harm.

Read more: Hazardous drinking: research finds that 40% of people over 50 drink too much

At a population level, public health messages must resonate with older people by reflecting the context in which they drink.

At a community level, GPs and community pharmacists are well placed to help older adults minimise the risk of harm, but may require further training to develop their skills and confidence in broaching this topic with patients.

For older adults experiencing alcohol-related issues, Australia’s first older adult-specific service, called Older Wiser Lifestyles (OWL), has effectively identified and engaged with more than 140 people who didn’t realise their drinking could be placing their health at risk.

This Victorian initiative asks patients at GP clinics to complete a screening test on a iPad and notifies the GP if risks are identified. The person can then participate in an OWL early intervention program of education, brief counselling and harm-reduction advice.

So far the program has led to participants reducing their alcohol consumption and having fewer problems with medicines that interact with alcohol.

Such a scheme could be replicated across the country, and has the potential to improve lives, reduce preventable disease and premature deaths, and save the health system money.

– ref. If you’re ageing and on medication, it might be time to re-assess your alcohol intake – https://theconversation.com/if-youre-ageing-and-on-medication-it-might-be-time-to-re-assess-your-alcohol-intake-131651

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bianca Fileborn, Lecturer in Criminology, University of Melbourne

The downfall of disgraced Hollywood producer Harvey Weinstein has come to a head following his conviction for rape in the third degree and a criminal sex act in the first degree. He was acquitted on a suite of more serious charges, including predatory sexual assault and rape in the first degree.

Weinstein’s conviction has been claimed as a “partial victory” for the #MeToo movement, and demonstrative of the collective power of survivors “speaking out” about their experiences. After all, the allegations against Weinstein sparked one of the most profound anti-sexual-violence activist movements in recent history, though we should remember African American activist Tarana Burke initiated Me Too a decade earlier.

Read more: #MeToo has changed the media landscape, but in Australia there is still much to be done

On the face of it, Weinstein’s conviction is a clear win for survivors. It provides institutional recognition and vindication after decades of sexual harassment and violence in a context where his behaviour was quietly ignored (if not openly condoned). Victims were often intimidated into silence.

However, achieving justice in response to sexual violence is complex. We should treat the Weinstein conviction with some caution as a victory for the #MeToo movement.

Survivors and the criminal justice system

Firstly, survivors’ justice interests (what they need to happen to feel justice has been achieved) are complex. A conviction alone may not be sufficient to meet these.

Many survivors place an emphasis on being heard and believed, and on their perpetrator acknowledging what they have done. The formal justice system is often unable to achieve these outcomes.

Participation in the criminal justice system is a traumatising experience for many survivors, despite decades of reforms. Survivors are routinely subjected to harrowing and relentless cross-examinations as the defence seeks to undermine their credibility.

Two key witnesses in the Weinstein trial were subjected to intense scrutiny. One reportedly experienced a panic attack when giving evidence. These are not uncommon experiences, and the fear of cross-examination is a strong contributing factor to survivors withdrawing their complaints.

Accessing justice

A deeper issue remains for survivors who never had their “day in court”. Access to criminal justice is often contingent on access to resources – financial, social and geographic, among others. This can affect a survivor’s capacity to participate in the justice process.

Survivors’ experiences are underscored by an (understandably) inherent distrust of the criminal justice system. It is well established that the vast majority of survivors never report to the criminal justice system. For those who do, their cases rarely proceed to a trial or result in a conviction.

In this sense, while Weinstein’s conviction may be positive for some of his survivors, we must remember that taking the criminal justice route is not a common path for survivors trying to achieve justice.

Beyond this, it took nearly 100 women coming forward against Weinstein (not to mention the many millions who participated in #MeToo more generally) for the accusations to be taken seriously. This doesn’t speak to a climate in which survivors are believed. If anything, it reproduces the notion that the uncorroborated testimony of survivors should be treated with suspicion.

Justice beyond the system?

What do these challenges surrounding access to justice mean for the millions of other survivors who disclosed through #MeToo? How can we ensure they also achieve a sense of justice in response to their experiences? A victim-centred approach to justice is needed to understand and meet the needs of all survivors of violence and abuse, and move away from the idea that the criminal justice system is the only place justice is seen to be done.

Taking this perspective is important for thinking about justice beyond individuals (as isolated survivors and perpetrators), in order to explore and challenge the structural conditions that enable sexual violence to occur.

While it might be tempting to celebrate Weinstein’s conviction and impending prison sentence (one of the charges carries a five-year minimum prison term), “carceral feminist” responses to sexual (and other) violence – which emphasise having the perpetrator imprisoned – have been heavily criticised for perpetuating race and class inequality.

This has implications for survivors. For example, Indigenous women are reluctant to report experiences of sexual and domestic violence to police. In part this is because they do not want to contribute to the vast over-representation of Indigenous people in our criminal justice system. Further, the criminal justice system is not a “safe” institution for Indigenous people – rather, it is a site of colonisation and injustice.

Read more: #MeToo is not enough: it has yet to shift the power imbalances that would bring about gender equality

In this sense, it is important to question how the justice system might avoid reproducing these problematic power dynamics. This reflects broader critiques of the #MeToo movement as being mired in “white feminism”, which largely excludes the voices and experiences of survivors from diverse backgrounds.

Beyond #MeToo, the unglamorous work of change

In adopting a cautious approach to celebrations of Weinstein’s conviction, we are also concerned about the risk of individualising the problem of sexual violence to one perpetrated by “deviant monsters”.

About one in five women (and one in 20 men) have experienced some form of sexual violence since the age of 15. These assaults are not perpetrated by “deviant monsters” but by everyday people who are usually known to survivors. Their behaviour is enabled by social, cultural, political and legal systems that deny women and other survivors the right to bodily autonomy and integrity.

The upshot is that the conviction of Weinstein as a deviant individual deflects attention away from the need to undertake the much harder – and longer-term – task of social, cultural and systemic change. Specifically, we need to talk about what happens after we say #MeToo; something Tarana Burke has described as the “unglamorous” but vital work needed if we are to see any sort of justice for survivors of sexual violence.

– ref. Weinstein conviction a partial victory for #MeToo, but must not overshadow work still to be done – https://theconversation.com/weinstein-conviction-a-partial-victory-for-metoo-but-must-not-overshadow-work-still-to-be-done-132434

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rick Sarre, Professor of Law and Criminal Justice, University of South Australia

Queensland Coroner James McDougall has handed down his findings into the tragic deaths of four people on Dreamworld’s Thunder River Rapids ride in 2016.

He reported a litany of failings by Dreamworld’s owner, Ardent Leisure, including shoddy record keeping, ad hoc inspections of rides and poor maintenance.

McDougall wrote “there is no evidence Dreamworld ever conducted a proper risk assessment in the thirty years of operation of the ride” and that the safety systems in place were “frighteningly unsophisticated”.

Read more: Dreamworld owner Ardent Leisure needs a lesson in managing a crisis

His conclusion was damning for the company: these failings, he said, contributed to the deaths of the four victims. Coroners are often circumspect in reporting their deliberations and findings. This is a report that pulls no punches.

Former Ardent Leisure CEO Deborah Thomas responded immediately, saying the findings are “an important milestone in the extensive and ongoing investigation” into the deaths and she hoped the recommendations will prevent such a tragedy occurring again.

Charges under workplace laws

So, what happens now? Police have not pursued criminal charges under the general criminal law against any individual Dreamworld staff. In these cases, prosecutions are more likely to be founded on workplace laws designed for this specific purpose.

But it is not the role of coroners to lay charges – they simply put their findings before the relevant authorities for consideration.

A famous example is a coroner’s unequivocal finding in 1999 that Domenic Perre had made and sent a parcel bomb to the Adelaide office of the National Crime Authority that killed a police detective in March 1994. Twenty years later, Perre has been committed to stand trial on a charge of murder as a result of subsequent police enquiries into the detective’s death.

However, in the Dreamworld inquest, the coroner said he “reasonably suspected” Ardent Leisure had committed an offence under Queensland workplace laws. He called upon the Queensland Office of Industrial Relations to consider prosecutions against Ardent Leisure.

Read more: Killed in the line of work duties: we need to fix dangerous loopholes in health and safety laws

The office administers the Work Health and Safety Act 2011 and works with the work health and safety prosecutor, a new office in existence since March last year.

These workplace laws are designed to protect all people who fall under a duty of care in and around workplaces, whether they are employees or visitors.

Under Queensland’s act, an offence has been committed if steps are not taken to avoid a significant risk from occurring, or if there is a failure to comply with regulatory requirements.

Where a death occurs or such a risk persists, a corporation can be fined up to A$3 million. An individual who was responsible for allowing, say, a lethal risk to persist – either directly or recklessly – can be fined up to $600,000, or face up to five years imprisonment.

The prosecution has to prove its case using the same standard used in all criminal matters where intention or reckless indifference are relevant – guilt beyond reasonable doubt.

Why manslaughter charges aren’t effective

More serious criminal consequences under Queensland’s new “industrial manslaughter” laws cannot be pursued in the theme park tragedy.

Queensland’s parliament passed the laws in 2017 in the wake of the deaths of two workers at the Eagle Farm racecourse in 2016. They were also no doubt influenced by the Dreamworld deaths. These laws make it a lot easier to sentence company directors to prison for deaths in the workplace, even in the absence of their direct culpability.

But the laws cannot apply retrospectively. Moreover, the provisions only apply to the deaths of workers, not visitors to a workplace.

Read more: Why industrial manslaughter laws are unlikely to save lives in the workplace

Even so, a key problem for those promoting industrial manslaughter laws is the lack of evidence that scapegoating delinquent company executives after a tragic event is likely to eliminate dangerous practices.

Putting in place considerable resources for accident prevention is a far better use of resources than finding fault and sending people to short terms of imprisonment months, if not years, after a tragedy takes place.

Indeed, in the Dreamworld inquest, McDougall recommended significant changes to theme park management including more stringent, regular inspection of rides.

Another important deterrent against such senseless tragedies occurring again is the genuine heartache of the executives at the top of any irresponsible company, and the threat of reputational damage to them personally and their company brand.

That reminder needs to be sheeted home to all companies and businesses, not just those providing leisure and theme park entertainment. There is an important role in this regard for those who train business leaders and those who regulate their affairs.

No amount of legal redress, of course, can bring back loved ones. We can only hope every company or business in this country that has visitors in its care will learn there is no price that can be put on their safety and security.

Whether or not prosecutions proceed and are successful in the Dreamworld tragedy, every one of the coroner’s recommendations must be implemented immediately. We owe that much to those who grieve today.

– ref. After damning report into Dreamworld tragedy, who can be held accountable under the law? – https://theconversation.com/after-damning-report-into-dreamworld-tragedy-who-can-be-held-accountable-under-the-law-132364

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alan N Williams, Associate Director/National Technical Leader-Aboriginal Heritage, EMM Consulting Pty Ltd, UNSW

The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that without a substantial decrease in our use of fossil fuels, we are on track for a global average increase of 2℃ in the next few decades, with extremes of between 3 to 6℃ at higher latitudes.

But 2℃ doesn’t really sound like much. Wouldn’t it just mean a few more days of summer barbeques?

While 2℃ might seem negligible, the peak of the last ice age was characterised by a 2-4 ℃ drop in global temperatures. This shows just how great an effect this seemingly small change in temperature can have on Earth.

Read more: A landmark report confirms Australia is girt by hotter, higher seas. But there’s still time to act

The last ice age

The last ice age occurred primarily as a result of changes in Earth’s orbit, and relationship to the Sun. Coolest conditions peaked 21,000 years ago. Reductions in atmospheric carbon dioxide and sea surface temperatures reinforced the cooling trend.

Globally, the most significant impact of the ice age was the formation of massive ice sheets at the poles. Ice sheets up to 4km thick blanketed much of northern Europe, Canada, northern America and northern Russia.

Today, these ice caps would displace around 250 million people and bury cities such as Detroit, Manchester, Vancouver, Hamburg, and Helsinki.

As water turned to ice, the sea-level dropped to 125 metres lower than today, exposing vast areas of land. This enlarged continent – 20% larger than Australia today – is known as “Sahul”.

In Australia, many of our major cities would have found themselves inland. Northern Australia joined to Papua New Guinea, Darwin harbour was 300km from the coast and Melburnians could have walked to northern Tasmania.

The Gulf of Carpentaria became a large, salty inland lake, largely unused by humans.

The enlarged continent caused climatic changes. Evidence from across much of Australia suggests the ice age was arid and windy – in some respects similar to conditions we have seen in recent times – and extended over approximately 200 human generations (about 6,000 years).

The monsoon, which delivers rainfall across the top third of the continent and into the arid centre, was weakened or at least moved offshore. The winter westerlies that bring rain across southern Australia also appear to have sat further south in the Southern Ocean.

With less rainfall, the arid zone was greatly expanded. Today’s semi-arid zones, many of which form an integral part of our agricultural belt, would have turned to desert.

The human response

Archaeological evidence suggests two main responses from Indigenous people in the last ice age.

First, they appear to have retreated into smaller “refuges” – key areas with access to fresh water. Today, we’d all have to move to eastern NSW, Victoria, or isolated areas such as Cairns and Karratha, based on archaeological data.

Second, populations dramatically declined, perhaps by as much as 60%, as the availability of food and water decreased. This means some of the most adaptable people on the planet could not maintain their population in the face of climate change.

Today that would equate to the loss of 15 million people, or the combined populations of the largest six cities in the country (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Canberra, Perth and Adelaide).

What fate awaits us?

Current projections, of course, suggest an increase rather than a decrease in planetary temperatures of 2˚C or more. However, in some respects, conditions in Australia later this century are likely to be similar to the last ice age, albeit via different climatic mechanisms.

Predictions suggest more frequent occurrence of hot days, as well as hotter days, and increasing variability in rainfall, with heavier falls when they occur. Cyclones may also become more intense across the top end, while increasing evaporation inland will likely see arid zones expand. The result may be similar to the last ice age, with increasing dry spells, especially inland.

Changing sea-levels (rising rather than falling) will similarly impact populations along the coastal fringe. Predictions of sea-level rise over the next century range from 19-75cm. This website – coastal risk – shows how sea-level rise will affect various parts of Australia. With 50% of our population within 7km of the coast and increasing, sea level changes associated with a global 2˚C warming will impact most Australians.

How should we respond?

People who survived the last ice age were mobile and well-adapted to arid conditions. Today’s sedentary society, dependent on optimised food production systems, arguably faces a greater challenge.

Our agricultural systems produce higher yields than the earlier food producing systems used by Aboriginal people, but are much more vulnerable to disruption. This is because they are limited in geographic spread (such as the Murray-Darling Basin and Western Australian wheat belt), and located where the impact of climate change will hit hardest.

As a result we’ll likely see large-scale failure of these systems. As the struggling Murray Darling Basin shows, we may have already exceeded the ability of our continent to supply the water that sustains us and the environment on which we depend.

We should do our utmost to ensure governments meet their commitments to the Paris climate agreement and reduce carbon emissions to zero by 2050. But it would also be prudent for researchers and policymakers to identify modern day refuges in Australia, and plan the long-term sustainability of these regions in the event climate disruption cannot be reversed.

– ref. The last ice age tells us why we need to care about a 2℃ change in temperature – https://theconversation.com/the-last-ice-age-tells-us-why-we-need-to-care-about-a-2-change-in-temperature-126923

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Onno van der Groen, Research Fellow in the school of medical and health sciences, Edith Cowan University

You may have heard of binaural beats, an auditory illusion that has been touted as having stress-busing properties, and is the subject of countless hours of videos on YouTube and elsewhere.

Proponents claim that listening to binaural beats can boost focus and concentration, promote relaxation, and reduce stress and anxiety.

But in a study published this month, researchers concluded that “whether binaural beats have an impact on cognitive performance or other mood measurements remains to be seen”.

It prompted media reports that the claimed mood-altering effects are probably no stronger than for other types of relaxing sounds, and that the touted effects may be just a placebo.

What are binaural beats?

Binaural beats is a perceptual illusion that occurs when two slightly different frequencies (notes) are played into each ear separately, typically using headphones. The resonance between the two frequencies is interpreted as a third sound (termed a “binaural beat”, because it involves two sound inputs, and is heard as a frequency in between the two played frequencies).

It has been claimed that this third frequency prompts brain cells to begin firing at the same frequency – a process called “entrainment”.

The purported relaxing effect is allegedly due to the fact that these frequencies are similar to the frequency of brain waves that occur during deep sleep, as opposed to the higher-frequency brain waves associated with conscious activities.

In other words, listening to binaural beats allegedly promotes brain waves associated with our most relaxed states.

What are these different types of brain waves?

The brain is made of billions of nerve cells (neurons), which transmit information to one another across huge networks of interconnections. It is thought that large groups of neurons can fire together to share information within the brain. The frequency of this synchronous firing can be measured with EEG (electroencephalograpy) electrodes on the head.

Specific frequencies are thought to be involved in specific cognitive tasks. For example, during deep sleep the predominant brain activity happens with frequencies of between 1 and 4 Hertz, so-called delta waves. Delta waves are also associated with learning and motivation. Theta waves (4-7Hz), meanwhile, are linked to memory and emotional regulation.

We might almost think of these various types of brain waves as different languages that the brain uses for different functions.

Read more: Curious Kids: What happens in our bodies when we sleep?

We also know that brain entrainment is a genuine effect that can occur in response to particular rhythmic frequencies perceived by our senses. A deep-pitched musical tone or a lightbulb flickering a few times a second can indeed cause your brain cells to start firing at the same frequency.

But does this entrainment necessarily have any effect on our mood? As the authors of the new study point out, there is still little convincing evidence for this.

What did the new research actually find?

The authors played binaural or monaural (normal) beats to 16 participants, and recorded their brain activity with EEG.

They found that both binaural and monaural beats can entrain the brain to their particular frequency. But when they asked participants to describe any changes to their mood, they found that neither types of sound had any significant effect.

However, the researchers did find that binaural beats can elicit “cross-frequency connectivity”, in which the brain coordinates its activity across different types of brain waves.

Some cognitive tasks, such as learning and memory formation, require networks within the brain to communicate with one another despite using different types of brain waves. To return to the analogy of different brain wave frequencies being like different languages, your brain sometimes needs to translate messages from one language into another, and vice versa.

If binaural beats can boost this process, it’s possible that it might have a beneficial effect on some types of cognition, perhaps including memory recall. The authors of the new study did not look at that particular question, although a recent analysis of 35 studies demonstrated a modest effect on attention, memory, anxiety and pain perception. None of these were tested in the current study.

Read more: Here’s why memories come flooding back when you visit places from your past

There are other ways to influence our brain function, such as by applying electric currents to the brain via electrodes stuck to the head, a technique known as transcranial current stimulation (tCS). There is evidence this can significantly improve cognitive skills in people affected by neurological disease and in healthy individuals.

In the meantime, if you enjoy listening to binaural beats, then by all means keep doing it – it won’t do you any harm. But it may not be doing you quite as much good as you perhaps imagined.

– ref. Sounds like hype: there’s scant evidence the ‘binaural beats’ illusion relaxes your brain – https://theconversation.com/sounds-like-hype-theres-scant-evidence-the-binaural-beats-illusion-relaxes-your-brain-132197

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jamie Parr, Lecturer, Australian Catholic University

German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche (1844-1900) is sometimes dismissed as a malevolent figure, obsessed with the problem of nihilism and the “death of God”.

Understandably, these ideas are unsettling: few of us have the courage to confront the possibility our idols may be hollow and life has no inherent meaning.

But Nietzsche sees not only the dangers these ideas pose, but also the positive opportunities they present.

The beauty and severity of Nietzsche’s texts draw from his vision that we could move through nihilism to develop newly meaningful ways to be human.

Comfort and purpose through God

For centuries, the Bible gave people a way to value themselves and something to work towards.

“We all,” declares St. Paul, “with unveiled face, beholding the glory of the Lord, are being transformed into the same image from one degree of glory to another” (2 Corinthians 3:18).

The divine and the human meet in this description. Believers felt uplifted because they held God’s attention. God loved us (1 John 4:19) and saw us, down to our sinful foundations (Hebrews 4:13), yet his love persisted. This love enabled us to endure the pain of life. And because he saw us and our faults, we were encouraged to improve ourselves little by little and live up to his image.

For Nietzsche, the son of a Lutheran pastor, the growth of scientific understanding after the Age of Enlightenment had gradually made it impossible to maintain faith in God.

“God is dead”, Nietzche proclaimed.

Nietzsche saw the danger in this atheist worldview. If we weren’t suffering to get closer to God, what was the point of life? From whom now would we draw the strength to endure life’s difficulty? God was the origin of truth, justice, beauty, love – transcendental ideals we thought of ourselves as heroically defending, leading lives and dying deaths that had meaning and purpose. How could we play the hero to ourselves now?

The consequences of the death of God are horrific, but also freeing. In The Gay Science (first published in German in 1882), Nietzsche has the news of God’s death relayed by a man driven mad through fear at what a godless life might be like. Eventually, he breaks into churches to sing God’s requiem mass.

Without God, we are alone, exposed to a natural universe devoid of the comforting idea of a God-given purpose to things. According to Nietzsche, this state of nihilism – the idea that life has no meaning or value – cannot be avoided; we must go through it, as frightening and lonely as that will be.

A new dawn

For Nietzsche, nihilism can be a bridge to a new way of being. We are “undetermined animals”: malleable enough to be refashioned.

Our task now is to transform from the old Christian way of being human, towards what Nietzsche calls the Übermensch or “Overhuman”.

Christianity’s problem, in Nietzsche’s view, is that it slowly but surely destroys itself: ironically, prizing truthfulness as a virtue eventually leads to an intellectual honesty that rejects faith.

Our quest for honesty has given birth to a “passion of knowledge.” Now the search for answers to life’s hardest questions, and not the worship of God, is our greatest passion. We hunt for the most accurate reasons for our existence and likely find the answers in science rather than religion.

Nietzsche writes for those who are invigorated by questioning. Indeed, knowing and accepting that we are human and fallible – no longer charged with trying to reach a divine standard – leaves us lighter. As he writes in Daybreak, God’s “death” removes the threat of divine punishment, leaving us free again both to experiment with different ways to live and to make mistakes along the way. He wants us to seize this opportunity with both hands.

We can be the heroes of our own stories again, once we reclaim from God our creative wills. Nietzsche encourages us to treat our lives like the creation of works of art, learning from artists how to tolerate and even celebrate ourselves by cultivating “the art of looking at ourselves from a distance as heroes”.

Influence and relevance

Nietzsche continues to have an immense influence on philosophy and how we see our everyday struggles.

Many today will relate to his belief that we are living through a state of crisis, asking questions about the point of life in an age marked by affluence, image, and the damage wrought by religious fundamentalism.

By contrast, Nietzsche offers us a way toward meaning and purpose without the gruesome consequences of those who impose their religion on others, regardless of the cost.

– ref. Explainer: Nietzsche, nihilism and reasons to be cheerful – https://theconversation.com/explainer-nietzsche-nihilism-and-reasons-to-be-cheerful-130378

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Denise Buiten, Senior Lecturer in Social Justice and Sociology, University of Notre Dame Australia

As the country mourns the horrific murders of Hannah Clarke and her three children, Aaliyah, Laianah and Trey at the hands of their father, many people are trying to make sense of what happened to them – and perhaps learn something to prevent it from happening again.

Sadly, we know such acts of violence against women and their children are not isolated. On average, one woman is killed in Australia each week by her current or former partner.

Familicides – family murders in which a perpetrator murders their partner and children – are much rarer, but research tells us that how we think, talk and write about these cases matters. It shapes public attitudes and influences the ways we try to prevent them.

In this context, it is important familicide be understood as a form of gender-based violence, whether in the presence or absence of a history of physical violence.

Common denominators in familicide

Though there is not a great deal of research on familicides, what we do know suggests it is a highly gendered crime.

To call an act of violence gender-based is not merely to suggest it is male violence against women, although it often is. It is violence that is driven in a central way by the social and structural dimensions of gender.

This means gender plays an important role in who perpetrates the violence, who is targeted, how and why.

In the case of familicides, research shows they are almost exclusively committed by men in heterosexual family relationships.

Read more: When mothers are killed by their partners, children often become ‘forgotten’ victims. It’s time they were given a voice

A history of domestic violence is a key risk factor. Individual familicide studies show varying rates, but a recent review of existing studies found a history of domestic violence was identified in 39% to 92% of cases.

Another key risk factor is the adult victim leaving or communicating their intention to leave the relationship – a well-documented precipitator for intimate partner homicide or intensified violence.

Familicide is not always preceded by violence, however. A desire for and sense of entitlement to control – especially over finances and the family “unit” – is a more common denominator. Familicide often occurs in the face of a spiralling loss of control over these areas, especially by a male “head of the household”.

A loss of control over “masculine” domains is at the heart of familicides, even where there is no clear history of domestic abuse. Some perpetrators whose actions may appear “out of the blue” have been described in research studies as having their lives unravelling in ways that are acutely tied to their gender identity.

Given these factors, familicides are usually pre-meditated.

Control as a factor in most killings

Many of these factors were present in recent familicide cases in Australia – financial struggles, imminent separation or custody disputes, and careful planning of the murders.

In 2016, for example, Fernando Manrique killed Maria Lutz and their two children, Elisa and Martin, by pumping carbon monoxide gas into the home while they slept. He also died at the scene from the gas.

The inquest into the killings found although there was no known history of violence in the relationship, Manrique had a “possessive” attitude towards his wife, was in financial stress and planned the crime over several weeks when he realised Maria was leaving him.

Based on what we know so far in the killings of Clarke and her children, she experienced an extreme form of “coercive control”, with her dress and movements closely monitored and enforced by her husband.

Read more: It’s time ‘coercive control’ was made illegal in Australia

Clarke also had a domestic violence order against him, had recently left the relationship and had expressed fears her husband may kill her. Control, and the imminent loss of it, was central to Baxter’s actions against both Clarke and her children. Children can also be victims of gender-based violence.

How the media covers these cases

News reporting on recent familicide cases has often focused on the personal circumstances of perpetrators, their financial troubles and the “pain” and “heartache” they must have felt.

Too often, when fathers kill their children, the tendency is to frame it as a case of mental illness rather than gender-driven violence.

Mainstream media largely fail to provide domestic violence resources such as 1800Respect in their reporting of these cases.

Even Prime Minister Scott Morrison, in a tweet on the Clarke murders, took care to include mental health support numbers but did not provide contact details for those experiencing domestic or family violence.

Reporting on the Baxter familicide has seen more frequent inclusion of domestic violence resources, in part due to early revelations of a history of domestic violence.

However, there has also been strong criticism levelled at news outlets for using passive, violence-minimising language in reporting on the case and framing Baxter himself as an equal victim.

The research on familicide tells us that whether or not there is a history of violence, we should be looking to gender norms and structures to understand the root causes and how they are linked to gender violence.

Calling violence gendered has fuelled a culture war in recent years – but if we want to address familicide, we need to put this aside and use the knowledge available to tackle underlying causes.

The National Sexual Assault, Family & Domestic Violence Counselling Line – 1800 RESPECT (1800 737 732) – is available 24 hours a day, seven days a week for any Australian who has experienced, or is at risk of, family and domestic violence and/or sexual assault.

– ref. Why do men kill their families? Here’s what the research says – https://theconversation.com/why-do-men-kill-their-families-heres-what-the-research-says-132314

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jane Varney, Senior Research Dietitian in the Department of Gastroenterology, Monash University

The FODMAP diet is used to help manage irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), but it’s becoming more popular. Now bloggers and so-called health gurus have jumped on board, claiming it can treat everything from acne to weight loss.

While it would be great if the diet did help to manage these hard-to-treat conditions, these claims are closer to science fiction than science.

What are FODMAPs?

FODMAPs are a group of carbohydrates found naturally in a wide range of foods, including garlic, onion, dairy, many fruits and vegetables, breads, cereals, pulses, nuts and many manufactured foods.

FODMAP is an acronym that stands for Fermentable Oligo- Di- Monosacharides And Polyols. Our team at Monash University coined the term in 2005 when we showed this group of carbohydrates trigger symptoms of IBS in susceptible people, and reducing all of them together would have a greater impact on IBS symptom relief than reducing any one of them alone.

How do FODMAPs lead to IBS?

FODMAPs attract water as they pass slowly through the small intestine. They then pass undigested into the large intestine where bacteria ferment them. In people with IBS, this leads to excessive gas production and changes in bowel habit, along with many other typical IBS symptoms including pain, bloating and distension.

One in seven Australian adults are thought to have IBS. Our research, which has been replicated by groups all over the world, has shown the diet reduces IBS symptoms in three out of four sufferers.

Read more: Explainer: what is irritable bowel syndrome and what can I do about it?

FODMAP is not a weight loss diet

While a limited number of studies indicate weight loss is an unintended consequence of a low FODMAP diet, the diet is ill fit for this purpose. For people needing to lose weight, the food restrictions the FODMAP diet imposes are unnecessary.

Unless carefully implemented, the diet can compromise intake of nutrients such as fibre, iron and calcium. This can lead to a shortage of these nutrients if the diet is followed strictly long-term.

One example of this is the diet restricts intake of prebiotics, the fuel source for good bacteria in our bowel. Numerous studies have shown an unintended consequence of the FODMAP diet is it changes the composition of the gut microbiota. While the long-term consequences of these changes are unknown, it is not advisable to restrict FODMAPs unnecessarily.

There is no scientific evidence to suggest the FODMAP diet reduces acne.

How should the FODMAP diet be used?

A FODMAP diet is a three step diet best followed under the guidance of an experienced dietitian.

People follow the diet strictly at the start, and relax and personalise the dietary restrictions over time. The aim is to strike a balance between adequate symptom control and a minimally restrictive diet.

In step 1, people reduce intake of all FODMAP groups below a threshold level. The aim of this step is to reduce IBS symptoms. If IBS symptoms improve sufficiently, people progress to step 2.

In step 2, people undertake a series of “food challenges” to determine which FODMAPs they can tolerate.

In step 3, well tolerated FODMAPs are brought back into the diet, while poorly tolerated FODMAPs are restricted, but only to a level necessary to control IBS symptoms.

Read more: Multigrain, wholegrain, wholemeal: what’s the difference and which bread is best?

Growth in popularity

The success of the FODMAP diet is due to its widespread uptake among patients with IBS. Backed by scientific evidence, the diet is recommended in various local and international clinical guidelines as a first-line IBS treatment.

As consumer demand for low FODMAP food choices grows, some companies have started to adopt Monash University’s low FODMAP certification. Brands like Vegemite, Kellogg’s USA, and Bakers Delight now offer low FODMAP-certified products.

But with bloggers and “health gurus” promoting fad diets under the FODMAP name, our research team is spending more time combating disinformation. This takes time away from our research and the support we can offer IBS sufferers.

To learn more about the FODMAP diet, visit monashfodmap.com.

– ref. The FODMAP diet is everywhere, but researchers warn it’s not for weight loss – https://theconversation.com/the-fodmap-diet-is-everywhere-but-researchers-warn-its-not-for-weight-loss-131550

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tanya Notley, Senior Lecturer in Digital Media, Western Sydney University

Like adults, children use the news to learn about what’s happening in the world. But the circulation of misinformation, such as the recent spread of fake news about COVID-19 (the disease caused by coronavirus), blurs our understanding of events and issues.

In 2017, we conducted the first nationally representative survey of how Australian children, aged eight to 16, consume news.

We found children as young as eight are interested in news. But there are few news media designed specifically for children in Australia.

The three national news programs for children are News Corporation’s Kidsnews, an independent daily news podcast Squiz Kids and the ABC’s longstanding Behind the News (BtN), which our research shows is popular with eight to 12 year olds.

Although children’s news programs are important, safe and appealing, children are still exposed to other types of news. Our survey found 73% of children regularly consume the same news as their parents or guardians and 49% get news from social media sites, which increases with age.

Our survey also found only one third of young people felt they could distinguish fake from real news.

Read more: Most young Australians can’t identify fake news online

Here are three things you can do (whether you’re a teacher or parent) to help children critically think about the news.

1. Help them identify reliable news sources

In our research children considered a range of items – from breakfast morning television segments to YouTube celebrity videos – as news. To help decide if a source is reliable they can ask the following questions:

• is it clear who created this news? It’s not possible to trust a source you don’t know since you need to be able to be able to query the person or organisation about why and how they created the story

• is this a straight presentation of the facts or does it include opinion? A fact is objective information, supported by evidence, and it can be checked to ensure it is right. Opinions are subjective thoughts about an issue nobody can prove are right. If opinions are presented as facts this is misleading

• are the people essential to this story included? If a story makes claims about organisations or groups of people, they should be given the opportunity to reply to these claims.

This series of materials from ABC Education can help children distinguish fact from fiction, including how to quickly identify fake videos and images. You may like to begin with their fun quiz, which highlights how complicated it can be to identify real news from misinformation (for children 12+).

2. Help them understand some media may exploit emotions

In our survey, 71% of young Australians said news often or sometimes upset them and 57% said it scared them. It’s not all negative though, as 69% said news often or sometimes made them happy or hopeful and 48% said it motivated them to respond to the situation being reported.

Discussing how children feel about news can help them decide which programs are good for them and which they should avoid.

Read more: The real news on ‘fake news’: politicians use it to discredit media, and journalists need to fight back

While it’s natural for news about major events and issues to evoke emotions, sometimes people can also seek to exploit our emotional responses for their benefit. Research shows catchy, provocative and sensationalist news headlines are more likely to receive clicks online.

Media can trick you into having an emotional response by:

• using sensationalist claims or headlines not supported by facts. These claims may say things like “The wonder herb that stops coronavirus!” or “Coronavirus spreading fast on Sydney trains!”

• using emotive or dehumanising language when describing people (such as referring to asylum seekers as “queue jumpers”) or their ideas (calling them “idiotic”)

• using a shocking or altered image (such as one that suggests a celebrity might be pregnant or in a new relationship when she is not).

You can also talk to children about some of the reasons people spread disinformation, such as:

• to influence how people will vote

• they may be racist, sexist, homophobic or wish to vilify people they do not like

• to discredit another person’s or group of people’s ideas to promote their own

• to create clickbait, which is a sensationalist statement designed to encourage people to click on it. This can make money for a website’s owner if they include advertising, since they will be paid based on how many people see and click an advertisement.

3. Discuss how news media talk about different people

In our survey, 38% of children said news does not treat people from different race and cultural backgrounds equally and 40% believed news does not treat men and women equally.

Parents and teachers can help children be on the lookout for stories where some people are represented in a denigrating way that does not present their ideas fairly. In these cases it’s best to seek out other news sources to consider how they are reporting the story.

For instance, racist information has been presented as news in relation to coronavirus. Some sites claimed you could get it from eating Chinese food while others promoted the notion of it being a bioweapon made by China or the US.

This kind of misinformation contributes to discrimination. In Australia people of Chinese heritage have experienced racist attacks while many Australians have now stopped eating at Chinese restaurants.

Read more: Coronavirus fears can trigger anti-Chinese prejudice. Here’s how schools can help

This short ABC sci-fi drama helps children aged 12 and older recognise media bias.

Trustworthy news is critical to society. We rely on it to help us make decisions about who to vote for, how we feel about events or other people, and how to manage aspects of our lives like our finances and health.

Identifying misinformation in the digital age is a challenge for everyone. As media literacy researchers, we have found listening to children’s experiences is a valuable starting point for developing their critical literacy.

– ref. 3 ways to help children think critically about the news – https://theconversation.com/3-ways-to-help-children-think-critically-about-the-news-131454

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Holly Kirk, Postdoctoral Fellow, Interdisciplinary Conservation Science Research Group (ICON Science), RMIT University

People living in cities far from the unprecedented bushfires this summer may feel they can do little more to help beyond donating to organisations that support affected wildlife. But this is not necessarily the case: ten of the 113 top-priority threatened animal species most affected by the fires have populations in and around Australian cities and towns. Conserving these populations is now even more critical for the survival of these species.

Here we provide various practical tips on things people can do in their own backyards and neighbourhoods to help some of the species hit hard by the fires.

Read more: The 39 endangered species in Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide and other Australian cities

Wildlife may arrive in your neighbourhood in search of resources lost to fire or drought in their ranges. Cities can become ecological traps, as they draw animals towards sub-optimal habitats or even death from threats such as cats and cars. But by providing the right resources, removing threats and connecting your backyard to surrounding habitat, you can turn your property into a refuge, not a trap.

The fires killed an estimated 1 billion animals and Australia’s threatened species list is likely to expand dramatically. As is often the case, the impacts on invertebrates have been largely ignored so far.

Read more: Conservation scientists are grieving after the bushfires — but we must not give up

Thinking outside the animal box

Despite the focus on animals, it is plants, making up 1,336 of the 1,790 species listed as threatened, that have been hit hardest. Early estimates are that the fires had severe impacts on 272 threatened plant species. Of these, 100 are thought to have had more than half of their remaining range burnt.

The impacts on individual plant species is profoundly saddening, but the impacts on whole ecosystems can be even more catastrophic. Repeated fires in quick succession in fire-sensitive ecosystems, such as alpine-ash forests, can lead to loss of the keystone tree species. These trees are unable to mature and set seed in less than 20 years.

Losing the dominant trees leads to radical changes that drive many other species to extinction in an extinction cascade. Other badly impacted ecosystems include relics of ancient rainforests, which might not survive the deadly combination of drought and fire.

Read more: A season in hell: bushfires push at least 20 threatened species closer to extinction

It is difficult to know how best to “rescue” threatened plants, particularly when we know little about them. Seed banks and propagation of plants in home gardens can be a last resort for some species.

You can help by growing plants that are indigenous to your local area. Look for an indigenous nursery near you that can provide advice on their care. Advocate for mainstream nurseries, your council and schools to make indigenous plants available to buy and be grown in public areas.

Providing for urban wildlife

Planting native species in your backyard is also the best way to provide food for visiting wildlife. Many species feed on flower nectar, or on the insects the vegetation attracts. Putting out dishes of fruit or bird feeders can be useful for some species, but the best way to provide extra food for all is by gardening.

Plants also provide shelter and nest sites, so think twice about removing vegetation, leaf litter and dead wood. Fire risk can be managed by selecting species that are fire-suppressing.

Urban gardens also provide water for many thirsty creatures. If you put out a container of water, place rocks and branches inside so small critters can escape if they fall in.

Read more: You can leave water out for wildlife without attracting mosquitoes, if you take a few precautions

Backyard ponds can provide useful habitat for some frog species, particularly if you live near a stream or wetland. Please don’t add goldfish!

The best frog ponds have plants at the edges and emerging from the water, providing calling sites for males and shelter for all. Insecticides and herbicides harm frogs as well as insects and plants, so it’s best not to use these in your garden.

Piles of rocks in the garden form important shelters for lizards and small mammals.

Reducing threats

It’s important to consider threats too. Cats kill native wildlife in huge numbers. Keep your pet inside or in a purpose-built “catio”.

Read more: For whom the bell tolls: cats kill more than a million Australian birds every day

Read more: A hidden toll: Australia’s cats kill almost 650 million reptiles a year

When driving, think about killing your speed rather than wildlife – especially while populations are moving out of fire-affected areas in search of food. Slowing down can greatly reduce animal strikes.

With the loss of huge areas of forest, species like grey-headed flying foxes will need to supplement their diet with fruit from our backyards. Unfortunately, they risk being entangled in tree netting. If you have fruit trees, consider sharing with wildlife by removing nets, or using fine mesh bags to cover only select bunches or branches.

Read more: Not in my backyard? How to live alongside flying-foxes in urban Australia

Living with the new visitors

People have different levels of knowledge about our native wildlife, and some will be more affected by new wildlife visitors than others. Some of these critters are small and quiet. Others are more conspicuous and may even be considered a nuisance.

Try to discuss what you are seeing and experiencing with your neighbours. When you can, provide information that might ease their concerns, but also be sympathetic if noisy or smelly residents move in. It is important to tolerate and co-exist with wildlife, by acknowledging they might not conform to neighbourly conventions.

Given the unprecedented extent and intensity of these fires, it is difficult for scientists to predict how wildlife will respond and what might show up where. This is especially the case for species, like the regent honeyeater, that migrate in response to changing resources. New data will be invaluable in helping us understand and plan for future events like these.

If you do see an animal that seems unusual, you can report it through citizen-science schemes such as iNaturalist. If an animal is injured or in distress it’s best to contact a wildlife rescue organisation such as Wildlife Victoria or WIRES (NSW).

Read more: How you can help – not harm – wild animals recovering from bushfires

Our wildlife is under pressure now, but we can help many populations by ensuring safer cities for the species that share them with us.

Resources

How to help birds after the fires

Other threatened species in cities

Wildlife-friendly fencing

Find your local native nursery

Learn about platypus-safe yabby nets

Record your bird sightings

Record your frog sightings

Record other urban wildlife

– ref. Want to help save wildlife after the fires? You can do it in your own backyard – https://theconversation.com/want-to-help-save-wildlife-after-the-fires-you-can-do-it-in-your-own-backyard-131896

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katarina Miljkovic, ARC DECRA fellow, Curtin University

We’ve all heard of earthquakes, but what about marsquakes?

NASA’s InSight mission has, for the first time, recorded seismic activity coming from Mars’ interior. The observations, recorded in 2019 and published today, will help understand the red planet’s internal structure, composition and dynamics. It opens a new chapter in planetary geophysics and exploration.

Read more: Red planet rumbles: NASA’s recordings of ‘marsquakes’ let us listen to the martian heartbeat

The NASA InSight mission has been operating on Mars since November 27, 2018. Soon after its seismic instruments were deployed in February 2019, InSight began detecting quakes and shakes. By September 2019 the InSight team had detected 174 marsquakes, and the total number continues to grow on a daily basis.

What kind of quakes were detected on Mars?

The recorded quakes fall into two distinct categories: 150 small ones, with high-frequency vibrations that suggest they occurred within the planet’s crust, and 24 low-frequency events which probably took place at varying depths beneath the crust. Small events are more frequent than the large ones, which is also common for the Earth.

The two largest events probably originated from the Cerberus Fossae fracture system, a young tectonically active region about 1,600 kilometres east of the InSight lander’s position. These two largest events were between magnitudes 3 and 4. This means that if they had happened on Earth, they could have been big enough to cause minor damage to structures. About 30,000 earthquakes of this magnitude are typically detected on our planet each year.

Because the characteristics of marsquakes change according to the nature of the material through which they pass, we use these recordings to begin to learn about Mars’s interior structure. For example, the speed of seismic waves changes with the material density, hence it can be used to mark the boundary between a planet’s crust and the mantle beneath.

Quake-hunting heritage

The InSight mission has become the first to detect quakes coming from the interior of another planet. However, it wasn’t the first to spot quakes on an extraterrestrial world. The Moon hosted a network of seismic sensors, deployed over the course of three years, beginning with the Apollo 12 mission in 1969. The network successfully detected many moonquakes until it was switched off in 1977.

InSight mission is not NASA’s first attempt at recording marsquakes. In 1976, the Viking 1 and 2 spacecrafts landed on Mars, each carrying a seismometer. Unfortunately, the seismometer on Viking 1 failed to deploy. The seismometer on Viking 2, which remained on board the lander, failed to detect any marsquakes over the noise of the wind and the lander itself. Viking 2 was a valuable lesson for improving the concept of hunting quakes on Mars. Later still, the Russian Mars 96 mission was set to deliver a seismometer to the red planet. But the mission failed at takeoff.

The InSight lander and its instruments will remain on Mars indefinitely. Usually, a space mission objective is to last at least one Mars year (equivalent to roughly two Earth years). However, most Mars missions have been built to last, and have continued far beyond their primary mission end date. It would be fantastic if InSight followed in these illustrious footsteps, recording marsquakes for years to come.

Read more: Our long fascination with the journey to Mars

Space exploration and planetary science are currently undergoing something of a renaissance that is yielding major discoveries. We are exploring the uncharted aspects of other planets, in the same way that historic maritime explorers and geographers mapped our own planet’s hidden secrets.

– ref. First recorded ‘marsquakes’ reveal the red planet’s rumbling guts – https://theconversation.com/first-recorded-marsquakes-reveal-the-red-planets-rumbling-guts-132091

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew King, ARC DECRA fellow, University of Melbourne

Recent helpful rains dampened fire grounds and gave many farmers a reason to cheer. But much of southeast Australia remains in severe drought.

Australia is no stranger to drought, but the current one stands out when looking at rainfall records over the past 120 years. This drought has been marked by three consecutive extremely dry winters in the Murray-Darling basin, which rank in the driest 10% of winters since 1900.

So what’s going on?

There has been much discussion on whether human-caused climate change is to blame. Our new study explores Australian droughts through a different lens.

Read more: Rain has eased the dry, but more is needed to break the drought

Rather than focusing on what’s causing the dry conditions, we investigated why it’s been such a long time since we had widespread drought-breaking rain. And it’s got a lot to do with how the temperature varies in the Pacific and Indian Ocean.

Our findings suggest that while climate change does contribute to drought, blame can predominately be pointed at the absence of the Pacific Ocean’s La Niña and the negative Indian Ocean Dipole – climate drivers responsible for bringing wetter weather.

What’s the Indian Ocean Dipole?

As you may already know, the Pacific Ocean influences eastern Australia’s climate through El Niño conditions (associated with drier weather) and La Niña conditions (associated with wetter weather).

The lesser known cousin of El Niño and La Niña across the Indian Ocean is called the Indian Ocean Dipole. This refers to the difference in ocean temperature between the eastern and western sides of the Indian Ocean. It modulates winter and springtime rainfall in southeastern Australia.

Read more: Dipole: the ‘Indian Niño’ that has brought devastating drought to East Africa

When the Indian Ocean Dipole is “negative”, there are warmer ocean temperatures in the east Indian Ocean, and we see more rain over much of Australia. The opposite is true for “positive” Indian Ocean Dipole events, which bring less rain.

What does it mean for the drought?

When the drought started to take hold in 2017 and 2018, we didn’t experience an El Niño or strongly positive Indian Ocean Dipole event. These are two dry-weather conditions we might expect to see at the start of a drought.

Rather, conditions in the Pacific and Indian Oceans were near neutral, with little to suggest a drought would develop.

So why are we in severe, prolonged drought?

The problem is we haven’t had either a La Niña or a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event since winter 2016. Our study shows the lack of these events helps explain why eastern Australia is in drought.

For the southeast of Australia in particular, La Niña or negative Indian Ocean Dipole events provide the atmosphere with suitable conditions for persistent and widespread rainfall to occur. So while neither La Niña or a negative Indian Ocean Dipole guarantee heavy rainfall, they do increase the chances.

What about climate change?

While climate drivers are predominately causing this drought, climate change also contributes, though more work is needed to understand what role it specifically plays.

Drought is more complicated and multidimensional than simply “not much rain for a long time”. It can be measured with a raft of metrics beyond rainfall patterns, including metrics that look at humidity levels and evaporation rates.

What we do know is that climate change can exacerbate some of these metrics, which, in turn, can affect drought.

Read more: Is Australia’s current drought caused by climate change? It’s complicated

Climate change might also influence climate drivers, though right now it’s hard to tell how. A 2015 study suggests that under climate change, La Niña events will become more extreme. Another study from earlier this month suggests climate change is driving more positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, bringing even more drought.

Unfortunately, regional-scale projections from climate models aren’t perfect and we can’t be sure how the ocean patterns that increase the chances of drought-breaking rains will change under global warming. What is clear is there’s a risk they will change, and strongly affect our rainfall.

Putting the drought in context

Long periods when a La Niña or a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event were absent characterised Australia’s past droughts. This includes two periods of more than three years that brought us the Second World War drought and the Millennium drought.

In the above graph, the longer each line continues before stopping, the longer the time since a La Niña or negative Indian Ocean Dipole event occurred. The lower the lines travel, the less rainfall was received in the Murray Darling basin during this period. This lets us compare the current drought to previous droughts.

During the current drought (black line) we see how the rainfall deficit continues for several years, almost identically to how the Millennium drought played out.

But then the deficit increases strongly in late 2019, when we had a strongly positive Indian Ocean Dipole.

So when will this drought break?

This is a hard question to answer. While recent rains have been helpful, we’ve developed a long-term rainfall deficit in the Murray-Darling Basin and elsewhere that will be hard to recover from without either a La Niña or negative Indian Ocean Dipole event.

Read more: Weather bureau says hottest, driest year on record led to extreme bushfire season

The most recent seasonal forecasts don’t predict either a negative Indian Ocean Dipole or La Niña event forming in the next three months. However, accurate forecasts are difficult at this time of year as we approach the “autumn predictability barrier”.

This means, for the coming months, the drought probably won’t break. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. We can only hope conditions improve.

– ref. Why drought-busting rain depends on the tropical oceans – https://theconversation.com/why-drought-busting-rain-depends-on-the-tropical-oceans-132188

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

A foreign intelligence service sent a “sleeper” agent to Australia, who provided logistical support for visiting spies, the head of ASIO, Mike Burgess, has revealed, in a speech pledging to intensify the fight against the threat posed by espionage and foreign interference.

Delivering his first “annual threat assessment”, Burgess, who took over ASIO last year, warned: “There are more foreign intelligence officers and their proxies operating in Australia now than at the height of the cold war and many of them have the requisite level of capability, the intent and the persistence to cause significant harm to our national security”.

He said the “sleeper” agent “lay dormant for many years, quietly building community and business links, all the while secretly maintaining contact with his offshore handlers.

“The agent started feeding his spymasters information about Australia-based expatriate dissidents, which directly led to harassment of the dissidents in Australia and their relatives overseas.

“In exchange for significant cash payments, the agent also provided on-the-ground logistical support for spies who travelled to Australia to conduct intelligence activities”.

Burgess did not specify any particular countries conducting hostile operations here and indicated a number were in ASIO’s sights. “Australia is currently the target of sophisticated and persistent espionage and foreign interference activities from a range of nations.”

But interference from China – including its cyber attacks – has increasingly become a primary worry for the Australian government and intelligence community. China’s activities were a major driving force behind the foreign interference legislation brought in by the Turnbull government.

“The level of threat we face from foreign espionage and interference activities is currently unprecedented. It is higher now than it was at the height of the cold war,” Burgess said.

“Espionage and foreign interference are affecting parts of the community that they did not touch during the cold war.

“And the intent is to engineer fundamental shifts in Australia’s position in the world, not just to collect intelligence or use us as a potential ‘back-door’ into our allies and partners,” he said.

“ASIO has uncovered cases where foreign spies have travelled to Australia with the intention of setting up sophisticated hacking infrastructure targeting computers containing sensitive and classified information.

“We’ve seen visiting scientists and academics ingratiating themselves into university life with the aim of conducting clandestine intelligence collection. This strikes at the very heart of our notions of free and fair academic exchange.

“And perhaps most disturbingly, hostile intelligence services have directly threatened and intimidated Australians in this country. In one particular case, the agents threatened the physical safety of an Australia-based individual as part of a foreign interference plot”.

Hostile foreign intelligence services were being directed to target Australia because of its strategic position and alliances, its leadership in science and technology, the expertise across the economy and because it was retooling its defence force and defence industrial base.

“Hostile foreign intelligence agencies have always sought access to personal information because they want to identify and cultivate potential human sources”, Burgess said. Now they were recognising the opportunities presented by the internet and social networking applications.

“In the past, attempted recruitment was time-intensive, expensive and risky … But now, they can use the internet to work from the safety of their overseas headquarters to launch cyber operations against Australian networks and to send thousands of friend and networking requests to unsuspecting targets with the click of a mouse”.

Burgess said in the last few years ASIO had consistently detected and regularly disrupted espionage in Australia.

He welcomed the current “robust public discussion” about the threats to Australia’s safety and prosperity from espionage and foreign interference, and foresaw the foreign interference legislation becoming more important.

The mere passage of the foreign interference law had discomforted foreign intelligence services. Any future prosecution would have a “further chilling effect”.

But ASIO sought to act before damage was done, and had recommended visa cancellations to stop foreign agents coming and had intercepted agents when they had arrived.

“As Director-General of Security, I intend to step up our actions to counter espionage and foreign interference”, Burgess said.

“We will actively support the prosecution of espionage and foreign interference before the courts,” he said.

“My message here is simple. If you intend to conduct espionage or foreign interference against Australia, ASIO and our partners will be hunting you”.

In his speech Burgess reiterated the “unacceptably high” threat of terrorism that Australia faced would remain for the foreseeable future, saying “the number of terrorism leads we are investigating right now has doubled since this time last year”.

While violent Islamic extremism would remain the principal concern, “the extreme right wing threat is real and it is growing”.

“In suburbs around Australia, small cells regularly meet to salute Nazi flags, inspect weapons, train in combat and share their hateful ideology. These groups are more organised and security conscious than they were in previous years.”

He said earlier this year ASIO advice led to an Australian being stopped from leaving to fight with an extreme right wing group overseas.

“While these are small in number at this time in comparison to what we saw with foreign fighters heading to the Middle East, any development like this is very concerning”.

– ref. ASIO chief Mike Burgess says there are more spies in Australia ‘than at the height of the cold war’ – https://theconversation.com/asio-chief-mike-burgess-says-there-are-more-spies-in-australia-than-at-the-height-of-the-cold-war-132384

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Apart from committing a crime, what do you have to do or say to be stripped of your order of Australia award?

Where “a line” should be drawn is the question the Council for the Order of Australia must decide, in response to calls for outspoken men’s advocate Bettina Arndt to be stripped of her recently-bestowed AM.

It will be a judgement call, about the point at which the award system should refuse to tolerate a recipient making highly unacceptable comments.

This is difficult territory, involving both issues of free speech and precedent setting.

There’s no problem removing the award from someone who commits a crime – that’s happened plenty of times – but it’s another matter when the decision must of its nature be subjective.

Arndt received her AM in this year’s Australia Day honours “for significant service to the community as a social commentator, and to gender equity through advocacy for men”.

The award was immediately controversial, with critics saying it should be withdrawn, pointing to, for example, a sympathetic interview she conducted with a convicted pedophile. (She’d later apologised “to those I have offended by the relaxed tone of the interview”.)

The calls weren’t going to carry any weight – until Arndt made her comment about the horrendous action of Rowan Baxter who last week set alight his wife and children in a murder-suicide that shocked the nation.

Arndt embraced remarks by a Queensland police officer, Mark Thompson, who said:“Our job as investigators is to keep a completely open mind.

“We need to look at every piece of information and, to put it bluntly, there are probably people out there in the community that are deciding which side to take, so to speak, in this investigation.

“Is this an issue of a woman suffering significant domestic violence and her and her children perishing at the hands of the husband, or is this an instance of a husband being driven too far by issues that he’s suffered, by certain circumstances, into committing acts of this form?

“That’s why I want people to come and speak to us. If we are going to build a complete picture as to what has occurred, then we need to need to speak to everyone.”

Thompson later apologised; he was taken off the case.

Arndt tweeted: “Congratulations to the Queensland police for keeping an open mind and awaiting proper evidence, including the possibility that Rowan Baxter might have been ‘driven too far.’”

She went on to accuse feminists of double standards, in seeking excuses and explanations when women killed their partners or children while “immediately judging a man in these circumstances as simply representing the evil violence that is in all men”.

On Monday Victorian Liberal senator Sarah Henderson wrote to council chairman Shane Stone calling for Arndt’s award to be removed. Victorian state Liberal Tim Smith has also written to the council saying the award should be rescinded.

This can be done by the governor-general, on the recommendation of the council, if “the holder of the … award has behaved or acted in a manner that has brought disrepute on the Order.”

In her letter Henderson argues Arndt has done just that.

“These comments which concern a man who doused his wife and children in petrol and burnt them to death are abhorrent. Suggesting that someone may have been ‘driven too far’ – which implies that there may have been some justification for such a heinous crime – reflects values which are inconsistent with Ms Arndt retaining her award as a Member of the Order of Australia in the General Division,” Henderson wrote.

Henderson noted that in the past she had been “quite supportive” of Arndt, including when chairing a parliamentary inquiry into family violence law reform.

“I recognise that Ms Arndt, as a social commentator, has in the past made an important contribution to the debate on family violence and gender equity including in her advocacy for Australian men who suffer family violence. I say this noting that it is estimated that some 90 per cent of family violence victims are women and children,” Henderson wrote.

“Notwithstanding her contribution, I believe that Ms Arndt has so seriously crossed the line in her commentary concerning this horrific act of family violence that it is no longer appropriate that she be awarded this Honour recognising her work as a social commentator.”

In the House of Representatives on Monday, both Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese spoke about Hannah Clarke and her children, and the House paid its respects, as did the Senate.

Given the intensity of public feeling, the council may find itself damned whatever its decision.

– ref. View from The Hill: Conundrum for Order of Australian Council over Bettina Arndt’s award – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-conundrum-for-order-of-australian-council-over-bettina-arndts-award-132361

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rebecca Stewart, Doctoral Candidate at BehaviourWorks Australia, Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash University

In the wake of last week’s horrific murder of a woman and her three children in Brisbane at the hands of her estranged partner, Social Services Minister Anne Ruston announced A$2.4 million in federal funding for four programs to change men’s behaviour.

The ultimate aim is to achieve positive behaviour change in men and increase the safety and well-being of their partners, ex-partners and families. But what do these programs involve? And do they work?

Read more: Forceful and dominant: men with sexist ideas of masculinity are more likely to abuse women

What are men’s behaviour change programs?

Men’s behaviour change programs are aimed at men who have been formally involved or implicated in a domestic and family violence incident, as well as those who recognise their behaviour as problematic and want to change.

The programs target men who are already using controlling, coercive and intimidating behaviours. This includes psychological, economic, emotional, sexual and physical violence and abuse. They aim to challenge and change abusive behaviours and the attitudes that underpin them.

Participation in these programs can be voluntary, via referral from police and correctional services, or be court-mandated. Community-based providers and correctional services deliver the programs.

Read more: To stop domestic violence, we need to change perpetrators’ behaviour

Typically programs run for three to six months. They include an initial assessment that at a minimum checks readiness for group work and commitment to the program. This process should include providing information to the men on family violence and collecting reports from those affected by the violence.

If ineligible or choosing not to participate, alternative options like counselling or another program are explored. Victoria’s peak body, No to Violence (NTV), also recommends providing information on family violence and seeking the man’s permission to contact women and children to offer assistance, support and referral.

If eligible and willing, men will enter the group-based program where they will develop and commit to a “group agreement” on behaviour and participation. In partnership with facilitators, participants will develop the agreement and decide on a process to alert men who are breaking these agreements. This includes ways to respond to breaches when they happen. Sessions must be run by two facilitators, one female and one male.

There is no standard structure or delivery requirements for across state and territory jurisdictions, but the men’s behaviour change – minimum standards manual, developed by NTV, has been highly influential nationally.

It includes guidance on core messages such as the lasting negative effects of male family violence, the difference between a feeling and a behaviour and how we’re in control of the latter, and that the safety of women and children always comes first.

It also promotes skills such as men learning to recognise the many different ways they can be violent and controlling; prioritising settings and relationships (such as friendships) that support their choice to be non-violent; and identifying thoughts, feelings and physiological reactions that are part of the “winding up” process, and how to use “winding down” thoughts rather than resorting to violence.

How do these programs work?

Men’s behaviour change programs use activities such as presentations, role play and group discussion to explore beliefs and understanding of entitlement, power dynamics in relationships, risk factors for abuse such as drug and alcohol consumption, and emotional regulation.

The aim is to shift attitudes and beliefs that are well-established drivers of men’s violence against women, so as to change their behaviour.

However, when it comes to whether or not these programs do that, the evidence is scarce.

Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety (ANROWS) recently reviewed the quality and effectiveness of these programs in Australia.

The review found several issues with how these programs are, or are not, evaluated. This included differences in what is measured (attendance versus demonstrated changes in attitudes), how change is measured (by self-reporting versus formal measurement tools), and a lack of follow-up to measure long-term change.

Perhaps most telling was the review’s focus group with female partners and ex-partners of participants. These women reported relief that formal action was being taken and supported the group-based approach. However, despite some reports of feeling less fearful, concern and doubt remained that changes seen would be short-lived once the program was complete.

Read more: How can we make families safer? Get men to change their violent behaviour

To really work, we need to start earlier

Men’s behaviour change programs are targeted at men already engaging in abusive behaviours. To achieve real change, we need to start earlier. We need to be looking at ways to challenge social norms and create new ones among men and boys.

We need to focus on educating about consent, developing skills around difficult conversations and learning to recognise and counteract harmful gender norms before these attitudes are ingrained.

Lasting change is only possible through major societal change. We need to pull out all the stops to achieve our ultimate aim: a world where women, like Hannah Clarke, and their children, like Aaliyah, Laianah and Trey, get to keep their lives.

– ref. More funding promised to men’s behaviour change programs, but we’re still not sure they work – https://theconversation.com/more-funding-promised-to-mens-behaviour-change-programs-but-were-still-not-sure-they-work-132254

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sunanda Creagh, Head of Digital Storytelling

Editor’s note: These before-and-after-images from several sources –NASA’s Worldview application, National Map by Geoscience Australia and Digital Earth Australia – show how the Australian landscape has responded to huge rainfall on the east coast over the last month. We asked academic experts to reflect on the story they tell:

Warragamba Dam, Sydney

Stuart Khan, water systems researcher and professor of civil and environmental engineering.

This map from Digital Earth Australia shows a significant increase in water stored in Lake Burragorang. Lake Burragorang is the name of water body maintained behind the Warragamba Dam wall and the images show mainly the southern source to the lake, which is the Wollondilly River. A short section of the Coxs River source is also visible at the top of the images.

The Warragamba catchment received around 240mm of rain during the second week of February, which produced around 1,000 gigalitres (GL) of runoff to the lake. This took the water storage in the lake from 42% of capacity to more than 80%.

Unlike a typical swimming pool, the lake does not generally have vertical walls. Instead, the river valley runs deeper in the centre and more shallow around the edges. As water storage volumes increase, so does the surface area of water, which is the key feature visible in the images.

Leading up to this intense rainfall event, many smaller events occurred, but failed to produce any significant runoff. The catchment was just too dry. Dry soils act like a sponge and soak up rainfall, rather than allowing it to run off to produce flows in waterways.

The catchment is now in a much wetter state and we can expect to see smaller rainfall events effectively produce further runoff. So water storage levels should be maintained, at least in the short term.

However in the longer term, extended periods of low rainfall and warm temperatures will make this catchment drier.

In the absence of further very intense rainfall events, Sydney will lapse back into drought and diminishing water storages.

This pattern of decreasing storage, broken only by very intense rainfall, can be observed in Sydney’s water storage history.

It is a pattern likely to be exacerbated further in future.

Wivenhoe Dam, Brisbane

Stuart Khan, water systems researcher and professor of civil and environmental engineering.

Lake Wivenhoe is the body of water maintained behind Wivenhoe Dam wall in southeast Queensland. It is the main water storage for Brisbane as well as much of surrounding southeast Queensland.

This image from National Map shows a visible change in colour from brown to green in the region around the lake. It is quite startling.

This is especially the case to the west of the lake, in mountain range areas such as Toowoomba, Warwick and Stanthorpe. Many of these areas were in very severe drought in January. Stanthorpe officially ran out of water. The February rain has begun to fill many important water storage areas and completely transformed the landscape.

Unfortunately, this part of Australia is highly prone to drought and we can expect to see this pattern recur over coming decades.

Much climate science research indicates more extreme weather events in future. That means more extreme high temperatures, more intense droughts and more severe wet weather.

There are many challenges ahead for Australian water managers as they seek to overcome the inevitable booms and busts of future water availability.

Read more: Bushfires threaten drinking water safety. The consequences could last for decades

Australia-wide

Grant Williamson, Research Fellow in Environmental Science, University of Tasmania

It’s clear from this map above, from NASA Worldview, the monsoon has finally arrived in northern Australia and there’s been quite a lot of rain.

On the whole, you can see how rapidly the Australian environment can respond to significant rainfall events.

It’s important to remember that most of that greening up will be the growth of grasses, which respond more rapidly after rain.

The forests that burned will not be responding that quickly. The recovery process will be ongoing and within six months to a year you’d expect to see significant regrowth in the eucalyptus forests.

Other more fire-sensitive vegetation, like rainforests, may not exhibit the same sort of recovery.

Read more: ‘This crisis has been unfolding for years’: 4 photos of Australia from space, before and after the bushfires

Grant Williamson, Research Fellow in Environmental Science, University of Tasmania

This slider from National Map shows both fire impact, and greening up after rain.

On the left – an area west of Cooma on December 24 – you can see the yellow treeless areas, indicating the extent of the drought, and the dark green forest vegetation. This image also shows quite a lot of smoke, as you’d expect.

On the right – the area on February 22 – a lot of those yellow areas are now significantly greener after the rain. However, some of those dark green forest areas are now brown or red, where they have been burnt.

It’s clear there is a long road ahead for recovery of these forests that were so badly burned in the recent fires but they will start resprouting in the coming months.

Grant Williamson is a Tasmania-based researcher with the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub.

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne

Bernie Sanders has easily won the Nevada Democratic caucus, cementing his status as front-runner for the Democratic nomination in the US presidential election.

With 88% of precincts reporting, Sanders won 47.1% of county delegates, the media’s preferred measure for declaring victory. Joe Biden followed with 20.9%, Pete Buttigieg had 13.6%, Elizabeth Warren 9.7%, Tom Steyer 4.5% and Amy Klobuchar 3.9%.

Sanders’ win was less impressive on initial popular votes during caucusing with 34.3%, followed by Biden at 17.9%, Buttigieg 15.2%, Warren 12.8%, Klobuchar 9.3% and Steyer 9.1%.

On popular votes after realignment of those candidates who failed to win at least 15% at a particular precinct, Sanders had 40.7%, Biden 19.7%, Buttigieg 17.1%, Warren 11.2%, Klobuchar 6.8% and Steyer 4.0%.

Sanders benefited from being the only candidate who exceeded the 15% threshold at almost every precinct. So, if Sanders was the only candidate above 15% at a precinct, he would take all of that precinct’s county delegates.

Caucuses are managed by the party, not the state’s electoral authorities. After long delays in reporting results at both Iowa and Nevada, it should be a relief very few caucuses remain on the Democratic schedule.

Most other states vote with primaries, or straightforward ballot elections.

Read more: The US presidential primaries are arcane, complex and unrepresentative. So why do Americans still vote this way?

National polls show Sanders with clear advantage

The latest RealClearPolitics national poll average for the Democratic presidential nomination has Sanders with a clear lead of 29.3% of prospective voters, ahead of Biden at 17.2%, Michael Bloomberg 15.3%, Warren 13.2%, Buttigieg 9.8% and Klobuchar 6.3%.

In the US Democratic primary system, pledged delegates are allocated proportionally to all candidates who clear the 15% vote threshold, both within a state and congressional district. Candidates need to win a majority of delegates (at least 1,990) by July’s Democratic National Convention to win the nomination.

With the latest national polls, Sanders is the only candidate far enough above 15% to be assured of clearing that threshold virtually everywhere. If the poll results are reflected on Super Tuesday on March 3, when 14 states vote and 34% of all pledged delegates are awarded, Sanders’ share of delegates would far exceed his vote share.

Read more: Two dozen candidates, one big target: in a crowded Democratic field, who can beat Trump?

There is one more contest before Super Tuesday: the South Carolina primary on Saturday.

With the state’s large African-American population, Biden had been expecting a big win here, but his lead over Sanders in the latest RealClearPolitics poll average has plunged from 14 percentage points in late January to just three points now.

Can Bloomberg gain ground on Super Tuesday?

The two most populous states voting on Super Tuesday are California and Texas. Bloomberg will contest Super Tuesday states after sitting out the first four nominating contests.

The RealClearPolitics average gives Sanders 26.3% in California, followed by Biden at 14.8%, Bloomberg 14.5%, Warren 12.0% and Buttigieg 11.3%. In Texas, it’s Sanders ahead at 23.5%, Biden 21.0%, Warren 14.5% and Bloomberg 14.0%.

The FiveThirtyEight forecasting model for the Democratic nomination gives Sanders a 45% chance of winning a pledged delegate majority. Nobody winning a majority is at 41%, with a Biden majority a distant third at 9%.

Bloomberg had been gaining in the polls, at least before Wednesday’s widely criticised debate performance. However, in a direct match-up with Sanders, he got crushed by a 57-37% margin in an NBC/WSJ poll.

Read more: Yes, the Iowa caucuses had major glitches, but the results may not even matter that much

While Bloomberg is winning the votes of those Democrats who believe only a billionaire can beat Donald Trump, many Democrats (particularly Sanders supporters) dislike giving the nomination to a billionaire.

If nobody comes near a majority of pledged delegates, there will be a contested Democratic convention in mid-July. Should this occur, it would be the first since 1952. If Bloomberg defeated Sanders at a contested convention, the Democratic Party’s left would react badly to the perception of a billionaire stealing the nomination from their guy.

Trump’s ratings, meanwhile, are trending up, thanks to the good US economy. In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, his net approval is -7.8% with polls of registered or likely voters.

Trump still trails the leading Democrats in RealClearPolitics national polling averages, with Sanders and Biden leading him by about 4.5 percentage points in head-to-head contests, Bloomberg leading by 3.3 points, and Buttigieg, Warren and Klobuchar leading by around two points.

Labor retains lead over Coalition in Newspoll

This week’s Newspoll, conducted February 19-22 from a sample of 1,510 people, gave Labor a 51-49% lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the last Newspoll three weeks ago.

Primary votes were 38% Coalition (steady), 34% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (steady) and 4% One Nation (steady). All figures here are from The Poll Bludger.

Nearly four in ten (38%) were satisfied with Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s performance (up one), and 58% were dissatisfied (down one), for a net approval of -20.

However, Labor leader Anthony Albanese’s net approval slumped eight points to -5, reversing the large jump for him after the bushfire crisis. Albanese’s lead over Morrison as better PM fell to 41-40%, from 43-38%.

On questions about the bushfires, 56% of respondents thought the main cause of the crisis was a failure by state governments to conduct adequate hazard-reduction burns, while 35% said climate change.

Read more: Nearly 80% of Australians affected in some way by the bushfires, new survey shows

On the federal government’s priorities, 43% said it should be to meet targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions (up 19 percentage points since July 2018), while 42% said it should be to keep energy prices down (down 21 points) and 11% to prevent blackouts (up two).

Half of respondents said they would be prepared to pay nothing more for electricity to meet the emissions target (down eight points since October 2017) and 41% said they would pay more (up 11 points).

In my last article analysing Newspoll, I was sceptical of the durability of Labor’s 52-48% lead. With the bushfires now well in the past, the government appears to be recovering.

While the climate change questions showed more people in favour of prioritising the environment, there were still more respondents who chose lowering costs and preventing blackouts as top priorities.

– ref. Bernie Sanders easily wins Nevada caucus; the Coalition regains support in Newspoll – https://theconversation.com/bernie-sanders-easily-wins-nevada-caucus-the-coalition-regains-support-in-newspoll-132345

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sunanda Creagh, Head of Digital Storytelling

Editor’s note: These before-and-after-images from several sources –NASA’s Worldview application, National Map by Geoscience Australia and Digital Earth Australia – show how the Australian landscape has responded to huge rainfall on the east coast over the last month. We asked academic experts to reflect on the story they tell:

Warragamba Dam, Sydney

Stuart Khan, water systems researcher and professor of civil and environmental engineering.

This map from Digital Earth Australia shows a significant increase in water stored in Lake Burragorang. Lake Burragorang is the name of water body maintained behind the Warragamba Dam wall and the images show mainly the southern source to the lake, which is the Wollondilly River. A short section of the Coxs River source is also visible at the top of the images.

The Warragamba catchment received around 240mm of rain during the second week of February, which produced around 1,000 gigalitres (GL) of runoff to the lake. This took the water storage in the lake from 42% of capacity to more than 80%.

Unlike a typical swimming pool, the lake does not generally have vertical walls. Instead, the river valley runs deeper in the centre and more shallow around the edges. As water storage volumes increase, so does the surface area of water, which is the key feature visible in the images.

Leading up to this intense rainfall event, many smaller events occurred, but failed to produce any significant runoff. The catchment was just too dry. Dry soils act like a sponge and soak up rainfall, rather than allowing it to run off to produce flows in waterways.

The catchment is now in a much wetter state and we can expect to see smaller rainfall events effectively produce further runoff. So water storage levels should be maintained, at least in the short term.

However in the longer term, extended periods of low rainfall and warm temperatures will make this catchment drier.

In the absence of further very intense rainfall events, Sydney will lapse back into drought and diminishing water storages.

This pattern of decreasing storage, broken only by very intense rainfall, can be observed in Sydney’s water storage history.

It is a pattern likely to be exacerbated further in future.

Wivenhoe Dam, Brisbane

Stuart Khan, water systems researcher and professor of civil and environmental engineering.

Lake Wivenhoe is the body of water maintained behind Wivenhoe Dam wall in southeast Queensland. It is the main water storage for Brisbane as well as much of surrounding southeast Queensland.

This image from National Map shows a visible change in colour from brown to green in the region around the lake. It is quite startling.

This is especially the case to the west of the lake, in mountain range areas such as Toowoomba, Warwick and Stanthorpe. Many of these areas were in very severe drought in January. Stanthorpe officially ran out of water. The February rain has begun to fill many important water storage areas and completely transformed the landscape.

Unfortunately, this part of Australia is highly prone to drought and we can expect to see this pattern recur over coming decades.

Much climate science research indicates more extreme weather events in future. That means more extreme high temperatures, more intense droughts and more severe wet weather.

There are many challenges ahead for Australian water managers as they seek to overcome the inevitable booms and busts of future water availability.

Read more: Bushfires threaten drinking water safety. The consequences could last for decades

Australia-wide

Grant Williamson, Research Fellow in Environmental Science, University of Tasmania

It’s clear from this map above, from NASA Worldview, the monsoon has finally arrived in northern Australia and there’s been quite a lot of rain.

On the whole, you can see how rapidly the Australian environment can respond to significant rainfall events.

It’s important to remember that most of that greening up will be the growth of grasses, which respond more rapidly after rain.

The forests that burned will not be responding that quickly. The recovery process will be ongoing and within six months to a year you’d expect to see significant regrowth in the eucalyptus forests.

Other more fire-sensitive vegetation, like rainforests, may not exhibit the same sort of recovery.

Read more: ‘This crisis has been unfolding for years’: 4 photos of Australia from space, before and after the bushfires

Grant Williamson, Research Fellow in Environmental Science, University of Tasmania

This slider from National Map shows both fire impact, and greening up after rain.

On the left – an area west of Cooma on December 24 – you can see the yellow treeless areas, indicating the extent of the drought, and the dark green forest vegetation. This image also shows quite a lot of smoke, as you’d expect.

On the right – the area on February 22 – a lot of those yellow areas are now significantly greener after the rain. However, some of those dark green forest areas are now brown or red, where they have been burnt.

It’s clear there is a long road ahead for recovery of these forests that were so badly burned in the recent fires but they will start resprouting in the coming months.

Grant Williamson is a Tasmania-based researcher with the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub.

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland

Australia’s catastrophic bushfire season has done immense damage to Australia’s tourist industry. Then, just as heavy rain began to bring the situation under control, came the coronavirus outbreak in China – now the top source of international visitors to Australia. Tourism from China, already greatly reduced, ended with the ban on non-citizens travelling from China.

Read more: We depend so much more on Chinese travellers now. That makes the impact of this coronavirus novel

The general assumption has been that, once the immediate crises are over, Australia’s tourist numbers will bounce back.

Optimists point to examples such as Japan following the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami that killed more than 15,000 people, resulted in the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster and forced more than 500,000 people to evacuate.

Tourism to Japan took a hit. International visits in 2011 fell 28%, to 6.2 million from 8.6 million in 2010. By the end of 2012, however, numbers were back to more than 8.3 million. Tourism to the devastated Fukushima region took a little longer to bounce back, but by fiscal 2015 had recovered to nearly 90% of numbers in fiscal 2010.

The same was true of the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami that wreaked catastrophic damage and killed an estimated 230,000 people in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, Thailand and other countries in the Indian Ocean region.

Terrorist attacks in major cities have a similar immediate impact on travel, but this soon dissipates.

There are, however, good reasons to think this time is different.

Unprecedented duration

First, most disasters of this kind have been single-day events. Relief efforts and damage assessments can dominate the news for a week or more, but other events soon take their place.

By contrast, Australia’s bushfire emergency ran for months, generating extensive worldwide coverage for much of this time. The COVID-19 outbreak epidemic is still front-page news and will probably remain so until it has been contained.

Second, the typical shock of this kind has no long-term effect on perceptions of the country where it takes place. The vulnerability of the Pacific Rim to earthquakes and tsunamis has long been known, and the occurrence of an earthquake in Japan does not make another one any more likely (if anything the opposite).

Similarly, terrorist attacks can and do happen anywhere. While there are countries where terrorism risks discourage most tourists – Afghanistan, Iraq, Nigeria and Syria being the top four – in most of the world no possible destination is more or less at risk than any other, and the risk remains even if you stay at home.

By contrast, the bushfire cataclysm has been unprecedented in terms of duration and the areas in southeast Australia destroyed. Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra were all cloaked in smoke.

The image of Australia as a clean, green destination for outdoor fun – promoted in an advertising campaign in Britain featuring Kylie Minogue even as the disaster raged – has been replaced by burnt-out landscapes where the next fire may be even worse than the last.

Read more: Celebrity concern about bushfires could do more harm than good. To help they need to put boots on the ground

The Australian government’s handling of the issue has added to negative perceptions. International coverage of the bushfires has repeatedly mentioned the “coal-loving” Australian government’s failure to deal with the fact its fossil fuel exports contribute to the conditions that make catastrophic fires more likely.

Washington Post columnist David Ickling put it like this:

It’s a rude dose of reality for Prime Minister Scott Morrison, a former tourism-promotion bureaucrat whose lackadaisical, image-obsessed initial response to the fires has caused him to be lampooned on social media as #scottyfrommarketing.

And yet a generation before Morrison came on the scene, Australia was already lying to itself and the world about its role in the climate change that has fuelled this disaster. If any goodness can sprout from the devastation of these fires, it will start with a more honest reckoning about how successive governments have sold off Australia’s future for a handful of coal.

Finally, the bushfires affected as many tourists as locals. The fires in southern New South Wales and eastern Victoria in particular trapped thousands of tourists taking Christmas-New Year holidays in normally pleasant seaside resorts.

This is not usually the case with disasters, with some exceptions. Most of the 202 people killed in the 2002 Bali bombings were tourists, for example, as were the majority of more than 4,000 people killed in Thailand by the Boxing Day tsunami.

Read more: In fact, there’s plenty we can do to make future fires less likely

Memories will fade over time, at least until they are rekindled by another disaster. But we should not expect this to happen quickly. The damage the bushfire catastrophe has caused to Australia’s position in the international tourism market is likely to last for years to come.

– ref. This time is different: Australia’s tourist numbers may take years to recover – https://theconversation.com/this-time-is-different-australias-tourist-numbers-may-take-years-to-recover-131894

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Hole, Senior Research Fellow, Mathematical Sciences Institute, Australian National University

Recent reports from scientists pursuing a new kind of nuclear fusion technology are encouraging, but we are still some distance away from the “holy grail of clean energy”.

The technology developed by Heinrich Hora and his colleagues at the University of NSW uses powerful lasers to fuse together hydrogen and boron atoms, releasing high-energy particles that can be used to generate electricity. As with other kinds of nuclear fusion technology, however, the difficulty is in building a machine that can reliably initiate the reaction and harness the energy it produces.

What is fusion?

Fusion is the process that powers the Sun and the stars. It occurs when the nuclei of two atoms are forced so close to one another that they combine into one, releasing energy in the process. If the reaction can be tamed in the laboratory, it has the potential to deliver near-limitless baseload electricity with virtually zero carbon emissions.

The easiest reaction to initiate in the laboratory is the fusion of two different isotopes of hydrogen: deuterium and tritium. The product of the reaction is a helium ion and a fast-moving neutron. Most fusion research to date has pursued this reaction.

Deuterium-tritium fusion works best at a temperature of about 100,000,000℃. Confining a plasma – the name for the flamelike state of matter at such temperatures – that hot is no mean feat.

Read more: Nuclear fusion, the clean power that will take decades to master

The leading approach to harnessing fusion power is called toroidal magnetic confinement. Superconducting coils are used to create a field about a million times stronger than Earth’s magnetic field to contain the plasma.

Scientists have already achieved deuterium-tritium fusion at experiments in the US (the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor) and the UK (the Joint European Torus). Indeed, a deuterium-tritium fusion campaign will happen in the UK experiment this year.

These experiments initiate a fusion reaction using massive external heating, and it takes more energy to sustain the reaction than the reaction produces itself.

The next phase of mainstream fusion research will involve an experiment called ITER (“the way” in Latin) being built in the south of France. At ITER, the confined helium ions created by the reaction will produce as much heating as the external heating sources. As the fast neutron carries four times as much energy as the helium ion, the power gain is a factor of five.

ITER is a proof of concept before the construction of a demonstration power plant.

What’s different about using hydrogen and boron?

The technology reported by Hora and colleagues suggests using a laser to create a very strong confining magnetic field, and a second laser to heat a hydrogen-boron fuel pellet to reach the point of fusion ignition.

When a hydrogen nucleus (a single proton) fuses with a boron-11 nucleus, it produces three energetic helium nuclei. Compared with the deuterium-tritium reaction, this has the advantage of not producing any neutrons, which are hard to contain.

However, the hydrogen-boron reaction is much more difficult to trigger in the first place. Hora’s solution is to use a laser to heat a small fuel pellet to ignition temperature, and another laser to heat up metal coils to create a magnetic field that will contain the plasma.

The technology uses very brief laser pulses, lasting only nanoseconds. The magnetic field required would be extremely strong, about 1,000 times as strong as the one used in deuterium-tritium experiments. Researchers in Japan have already used this technology to create a weaker magnetic field.

Hora and colleagues claim their process will create an “avalanche effect” in the fuel pellet that means a lot more fusion will occur than would otherwise be expected. While there is experimental evidence to support some increase in fusion reaction rate by tailoring laser beam and target, to compare with deuterium-tritium reactions the avalanche effect would need to increase the fusion reaction rate by more than 100,000 times at 100,000,000℃. There is no experimental evidence for an increase of this magnitude.

Read more: Don’t get too excited, no one has cracked nuclear fusion yet

Where to from here?

The experiments with hydrogen and boron have certainly produced fascinating physical results, but projections by Hora and colleagues of a five-year path to realising fusion power seem premature. Others have attempted laser-triggered fusion. The National Ignition Facility in the US, for example, has attempted to achieve hydrogen-deuterium fusion ignition using 192 laser beams focused on a small target.

These experiments reached one-third of the conditions needed for ignition for a single experiment. The challenges include precise placement of the target, non-uniformity of the laser beam, and instabilities that occur as the target implodes.
These experiments were conducted at most twice per day. By contrast, estimates suggest that a power plant would require the equivalent of 10 experiments per second.

The development of fusion energy is most likely to be realised by the mainstream international program, with the ITER experiment at its core. Australia has international engagement with the ITER project in fields of theory and modelling, materials science and technology development.

Much of this is based at the ANU in collaboration with Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, which is the signatory to a cooperation agreement with ITER. That said, there is always room for smart innovation and new concepts, and it is wonderful to see all kinds of investment in fusion science.

– ref. We won’t have fusion generators in five years. But the holy grail of clean energy may still be on its way – https://theconversation.com/we-wont-have-fusion-generators-in-five-years-but-the-holy-grail-of-clean-energy-may-still-be-on-its-way-132250

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Will Steffen, Emeritus Professor, Australian National University

Opposition leader Anthony Albanese’s announcement on Friday that a Labor government would adopt a target of net-zero emissions by 2050 was a big step in the right direction. But a bit of simple maths reveals the policy is too little, too late.

Perhaps the most robust way to assess whether a proposed climate action is strong enough to meet a temperature target is to apply the “carbon budget” approach. A carbon budget is the cumulative amount of carbon dioxide the world can emit to stay within a desired temperature target.

Once the budget is spent (in other words, the carbon dioxide is emitted), the world must have achieved net-zero emissions if the temperature target is to be met.

So let’s take a look at how Labor’s target stacks up against the remaining carbon budget.

Blowing the budget

The term “net-zero emissions” means any human emissions of carbon dioxide are cancelled out by the uptake of carbon by the Earth – such as by vegetation or soil – or that the emissions are prevented from entering the atmosphere, by using technology such as carbon capture and storage.

(The net-zero emissions concept is fraught with scientific complexities and the potential for perverse outcomes and unethical government policies – but that’s an article for another day.)

So let’s assume every country in the world adopted the net-zero-by-2050 target. This is a plausible assumption, as the UK, New Zealand, Canada, France, Germany and many others have already done so.

Read more: Yes, more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere helps plants grow, but it’s no excuse to downplay climate change

What then should the world’s remaining carbon budget be, starting from this year?

The globally agreed Paris target aims to stabilise the global average temperature rise at 1.5℃ above the pre-industrial level, or at least keep the rise to well below 2℃.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that from 2020, the remaining 1.5℃ carbon budget is about 130 GtC (billion tonnes of carbon dioxide). This is based on a 66% probability that limiting further emissions to this level will keep warming below the 1.5℃ threshold.

Current global emissions are about 11.5 GtC per year. So at this rate, the budget would be blown in just 11 years.

How does Labor’s policy stack up?

This is where the “net-zero emissions by 2050” target fails. Even if the world met this target, and reduced emissions evenly over 30 years, cumulative global emissions would be about 170 GtC by 2050. That is well over the 130 GtC budget needed to limit warming to 1.5℃.

So how far would Labor’s target go towards limiting warming to 2℃?

Read more: Conservative but green independent MP Zali Steggall could break the government’s climate policy deadlock

The carbon budget for that target is about 335 GtC. So a net-zero-by-2050 policy could, in principle, stabilise the climate at well below 2℃.

But a word of caution is needed here. The budgets I used above ignore two “jokers in the pack” that could slash the carbon budget and make the Paris targets much harder to achieve.

Jokers in the pack

The first joker is that the carbon budgets I used assume we will reduce emissions of other greenhouse gases, such as methane and nitrous oxide, at about the same rate we reduce carbon dioxide.

But these potent non-CO₂ gases, which primarily come from the agriculture sector, are generally more difficult to curb than carbon dioxide. Because of this, the IPCC recognises the carbon budget may have to be reduced if these gases are emitted at amounts higher than assumed.

Given the large uncertainties in how fast we can reduce emissions of these non-CO₂ gases, I’ve taken a mid-range estimate of their effect on the 1.5℃ carbon budget and consequently lowered it by 50 Gt. (This value is based on a median non-CO₂ warming contribution as estimated by the IPCC.) This reduces the remaining carbon budget to only about 80 Gt.

Second, the carbon budgets do not include feedbacks in the climate system, such as forest dieback in the Amazon or melting permafrost. These processes are both caused by climate change, at least in part, and amplify it by releasing more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

Emissions caused by feedbacks are expected to increase as global average temperature rises. Under a 1.5℃ rise, feedback processes could emit about 70 Gt of carbon dioxide. When the 1.5℃ budget is adjusted for both non-CO2 greenhouse gases and feedbacks, this leaves just one year’s worth of global emissions in the bank.

The corresponding reductions for the 2℃ warming limit reduce its carbon budget to 160 GtC. This is less than the cumulative emissions of 170 GtC if every country adopted a net-zero-by-2050 policy.

What does effective climate action look like?

These calculations are confronting enough. But for Australia there is, in addition, a huge elephant in the room – or rather, in the coal mine.

Our exported emissions – those created when our coal, gas and other fossil fuels are burned overseas – are about 2.5 times more than our domestic emissions. Exported emissions are not counted on Australia’s ledger, but they all contribute to the escalating impacts of climate change – including the bushfires that devastated southeast Australia this summer.

So, what would an effective climate action plan look like? In my view, the central actions should be:

• cut domestic emissions by 50% by 2030
• move the net-zero target date forward to 2045, or, preferably 2040
• ban new fossil fuel developments of any kind, for either export or domestic use

The striking students are right. We are in a climate emergency.

The net-zero-by-2050 policy is a step in the right direction but is not nearly enough. Our emission reduction actions must be ramped up even more – and fast – to give our children and grandchildren a fighting chance of a habitable planet.

Read more: 222 scientists say cascading crises are the biggest threat to the well-being of future generations

– ref. Labor’s climate policy is too little, too late. We must run faster to win the race – https://theconversation.com/labors-climate-policy-is-too-little-too-late-we-must-run-faster-to-win-the-race-132263

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lauren Gurrieri, Senior Lecturer in Marketing, RMIT University

Under Australia’s harsh sun, we’ve long slapped on sunscreen to protect ourselves from skin damage and cancer.

Now the product, once known for protecting skin against harmful UV rays, is becoming part of beauty routines. Sunscreen products are described as rich, luxe or nourishing.

When did the cultural perception of sunscreen as a health imperative shift towards a lifestyle “must have”? And will this new pitch work to keep us sun safe?

Campaigns of old

Sun safety promotions work to combat dangerous tanning behaviour.

The iconic Slip, Slop, Slap campaign paved the way for how we see sun protection today. In the 1980s, it was instrumental in educating Australians about sun exposure and skin cancer.

The campaign’s mascot, Sid the Seagull, sang and danced on our screens, encouraging us to slip on a shirt, slop on sunscreen and slap on a hat.

The slogan was extended to Slip, Slop, Slap, Seek, Slide in 2007, adding two more tips to preventing sun damage: seeking shade and sliding on sunglasses.

These campaigns aimed to refocus Australians’ attitudes to sun protection as a necessity, despite our traditionally sun-drenched lifestyle.

In the 1990s, advertisements shifted their tone from catchy jingles to sexual appeals. The Leave Your Hat On campaign took inspiration from a striptease scene in the film 9/12 Weeks, reversing it with a couple putting on sunscreen, clothes, hats and sunglasses.

The campaign targeted young men, as they were most at risk of developing skin cancer. However, the messages of these advertisements did not stick in the minds of Australians. The cultural norm of tanning remained steadfast.

Education through fear

When sex didn’t work to implement sun safety practices, campaigns used scare tactics instead. In the summer of 2003, skin cancer was branded as killer body art and the effects of sunburn, even if only mild, were portrayed as creating a timebomb under the skin.

These “slice of death narratives” – where the advertisement’s focus is on the negative consequences of poor decisions – highlighted the potentially fatal results of sun exposure. In 2007, Clare Oliver, battling end-stage melanoma, shared her story to highlight the dangers of solariums and the cultural ideal of tanning.

The true story of Wes Bonny, told by the relatives of a 26-year-old man who died from melanoma in 2010, spoke volumes about skin cancer affecting an everyday “Aussie guy”.

In 2016, Melbourne mother Belinda shared her story before her death from melanoma.

The campaigns were created to increase people’s vigilance with sun protection, and sunscreen became a product critical to protecting one’s health.

Evidently, these messages were effective. Research showed lower sunburn rates across the population, and sun protective behaviours improved.

Moreover, research into the investment into such campaigns found every A$1 invested brought a return of A$3.85 by lowering treatment costs and increasing productivity. The campaigns reduced the rates of illness and death and the economic burden of skin cancer.

A new beauty product?

As consumer demand bloomed, the perception and branding of sun protection products changed.

The Australian sunscreen market is expected to tip A$159.3 million this year. By marketing sunscreen as a key step in a daily skincare routine, brands are repositioning sunscreen as a beauty essential.

The new buzzword “skinscreen” has been coined for products that combine skincare and sunscreen. To persuade women to add skinscreens in their beauty regimes, products are marketed with appealing fragrances and textures, and are encouraged to be worn under makeup.

Beauty influencers on social media have jumped on-board the skinscreen craze. It is now marketed to highlight its anti-ageing benefits: preventing age spots, fine lines and wrinkles.

There are pros and cons to luxe skinscreen messaging. It may encourage frequent sunscreen application, but it also suggests women’s beauty and youth are inextricably linked and women’s value lies chiefly in their appearance.

Despite sunscreen’s new home in the beauty aisle, health messaging has not completely disappeared. The social media initiative Call Time on Melanoma aims to spread awareness about skin cancers and protecting skin from harmful rays.

With more than 21,000 Instagram followers, the account encourages people to wear sunscreen everyday, get regular skin checks and debunks myths about sunscreen. The initiative builds awareness by sharing the story of Natalie Fornasier, a woman who was diagnosed with stage III melanoma at age 20.

Skincare brand La Roche-Posay was an official sunscreen partner for the 2020 Australian Open. They offered a UV Experience to educate tennis fans about sunscreen protection and ran a campaign to raise awareness of the daily UV index.

Although important questions should be asked about the re-branding of sunscreen creating additional appearance-based pressures and “beauty work” for women, sunscreen appears to be more popular than ever. Sunsmart campaigns may have laid the health messaging groundwork, but today’s skincare brands continue to build awareness. This is a welcome step towards keeping Australians sun safe.

– ref. Burnt is out, ‘skinscreen’ is in. How sunscreen got a beauty makeover – https://theconversation.com/burnt-is-out-skinscreen-is-in-how-sunscreen-got-a-beauty-makeover-131292

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paxton Loke, Paediatric Allergist and Immunologist, Murdoch Children’s Research Institute

Some children grow out of their food allergies, but researchers don’t exactly know why.

Here’s how to work with your allergy specialist if you suspect your child isn’t allergic any more.

Read more: Four myths about allergies you thought were true – but aren’t

Who’s more likely to grow out of their food allergy?

Food allergy affects up to 10% of infants and 8% of children in Australia and New Zealand. Common food allergies in young children are egg, cow’s milk and peanut. Allergies to tree nuts, fish and seafood tend to be more common in adolescents.

Rates of food allergies have increased in children and adults in developed countries including Australia. There’s also an increase in the number of children up to four years old who’ve been admitted to hospital with food anaphylaxis (a severe, life-threatening reaction).

Read more: Introduce eggs and peanuts early in infants’ diets to reduce the risk of allergies

Yet, Australian research shows almost all children (more than 80%) with an egg allergy outgrow their allergy by the time they are four years old, as do about 20% of children with a peanut allergy.

However, for others, food allergies are likely to persist. This is most likely if they have eczema, hay fever and/or asthma alongside a tree nut allergy from a young age, or they have a severe allergic reaction to a low dose of their particular food allergen.

Why do they outgrow their food allergy?

Researchers don’t know exactly why some children grow out of their food allergies. But their immune response to food allergens seems to change.

For instance, these children have lower levels of antibodies you’d normally see as part of an allergic response (lower levels of allergen-specific IgE). They also have higher levels of other immune system components (allergen-specific IgG4, IL-10 and allergen-specific T cells).

Other research has focused on a type of T cell, called the regulatory T cell, which regulates how the adaptive immune system responds to antigens.

Children who are not allergic or have developed naturally occurring tolerance are more likely to have stable levels of these cells. However, children with an allergy may not be able to regenerate these cells once exposed to the food allergen, so have lower levels.

Read more: Explainer: what is the immune system?

Children who outgrow their food allergies may also have a dampened inflammatory response in a part of their immune system known as the innate immune system.

Lastly, changes in the diversity of gut microbiota (microorganisms such as bacteria living in the gut) and substances made by these microbes may also be involved.

However, we need more research to verify what’s happening both in the immune system and the gut microbiome to be sure.

Read more: Essays on health: microbes aren’t the enemy, they’re a big part of who we are

What signs can parents look out for?

If you think your child has outgrown their food allergy, it’s important not to test them yourself to see what happens. This is extremely unsafe and they may have a severe allergic reaction.

However, you may have noticed your child has accidentally eaten a food allergen but did not develop an allergic reaction. This may indicate your child has outgrown the food allergy.

That’s when it’s time to consult an allergy specialist – a doctor who specialises in diagnosing and managing patients with allergic diseases – to investigate.

Here’s what an allergy specialist will do

The allergy specialist will conduct a number of tests to monitor your child, either annually or every few years, depending on the allergen. These tests include skin prick tests and blood tests.

These tests indicate changes in the immune system to give us an idea of whether your child has outgrown an allergy or it persists.

Read more: Early exposure to infections doesn’t protect against allergies, but getting into nature might

When these tests indicate almost no allergic response, your child will have an oral food challenge under medical supervision.

For example, a child will be given the food allergen in increasing amounts in a medical facility. If the child tolerates the food (known as passing the challenge), the food is regularly reintroduced into the diet.

Food challenge tests are also done to see if a child can tolerate foods in a modified form. For example, a child allergic to eggs or cow’s milk may be able to tolerate baked egg or baked milk.

In general, it’s only with a medically supervised oral food challenge that allergy specialists can say whether your child has really outgrown their food allergy.

If your child has a food allergy, more information is available from Allergy & Anaphylaxis Australia and the Australasian Society of Clinical Immunology and Allergy. You can also listen to the Allergies podcast, by Murdoch Children’s Research Institute’s specialists Professors Katie Allen and Mimi Tang.

– ref. I think my child has outgrown their food allergy. How can I be sure? – https://theconversation.com/i-think-my-child-has-outgrown-their-food-allergy-how-can-i-be-sure-130455

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sunanda Creagh, Head of Digital Storytelling

You’ve heard of dark matter. You’ve probably heard there’s a fair bit of it out there in space, and that astronomers don’t know for sure what it is.

But, strange as dark matter is, there’s an even more mysterious thing out there in the Universe – and quite a lot of it.

Dark energy, believed to be responsible for the acceleration of the expansion of the Universe, makes up the vast majority of space.

Today, editorial intern and astrophysics student Cameron Furlong, dives into what we know about dark energy and what it means for our place in the Universe.

Read more: The Dish in Parkes is scanning the southern Milky Way, searching for alien signals

New to podcasts?

Everything you need to know about how to listen to a podcast is here.

Additional audio credits

Kindergarten by Unkle Ho, from Elefant Traks.

Pulsars by Podington Bear, from Free Music Archive

Podcast episode recorded and edited by Cameron Furlong.

Lead image

Shutterstock

Read more: ‘The size, the grandeur, the peacefulness of being in the dark’: what it’s like to study space at Siding Spring Observatory

– ref. More than 70% of the Universe is made of ‘dark energy’, the mysterious stuff even stranger than dark matter – https://theconversation.com/more-than-70-of-the-universe-is-made-of-dark-energy-the-mysterious-stuff-even-stranger-than-dark-matter-131569

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Natalie Skead, Professor, Dean of Law School, University of Western Australia

In 2017, a business lecturer posted a photo on LinkedIn showing a completely empty university classroom, 15 minutes after the class had been scheduled to start.

This is not an isolated incident. Anecdotally, lecture and tutorial attendance has been declining steadily in Australian universities and faculties for many years.

Declining attendance may affect students’ academic performance and their sense of connectedness. University doesn’t only teach content but develops attributes such as oral communication and interpersonal skills including teamwork.

Students are less likely to develop these skills if they don’t physically attend class.

We conducted a large-scale study in our law school to uncover whether lecture recordings are responsible for declining student attendance and what motivates students to attend or miss class.

By manually counting how many students were in lectures across sixteen different subjects, we found attendance rates averaged just 38% of total enrolments across the semester.

There was a natural ebb and flow of lecture attendance throughout the semester. There was peak attendance at the beginning (57%), a significant drop in the middle as assessments became due (26%) and a rebound at the end of semester as exam season hit (35%).

We also asked students to self-report their lecture attendance. The most common answer given, by far, was “almost all of the time” and 59% of students said they attended lectures the majority of the time.

Clearly there is a dissonance between this self-perception and reality.

Are recordings to blame?

Lecture recording is now common in Australian universities. Anecdotally, it’s often held responsible for declining attendance rates. But there is little research on the relationship between student attendance and lecture recording.

While lectures are usually recorded and available to students in streamed or downloadable format once the class ends, tutorials and other smaller classes are not usually recorded.

Read more: Are lectures a good way to learn?

Our study found students aren’t ditching tutorials, seminars and workshops as much as they are lectures. Tutorials averaged a whopping 84% attendance rate. This could partly be explained by the fact teachers assess students on their participation in tutorials.

We also surveyed 900 students to find out their reasons for attending and not attending lectures, tutorials and workshops.

Availability of lecture recordings was the most common reason students gave for not attending lectures (18% of students said this). But work commitments were a close second (16%). Then it was timetable conflicts (12%), the time and day of lectures (11%) and assessments being due (8%).

Students lead complex lives

Universities provide students with lecture recordings for several reasons. These include giving students an alternative study tool and supporting students with disabilities or from non-English speaking backgrounds (who can slow down or pause recordings if necessary).

Our survey and focus groups showed students lead complex lives often balancing work, family and other commitments alongside their studies.

One student said:

[…] if some [lectures] are so early as 8am, that would involve waking up at 6am, which is difficult as I work in hospitality at night and if I’ve worked the night before I wouldn’t be getting to bed until after midnight.

I likely would be fatigued during that lecture and have difficulty concentrating and taking in the content, compared to if I watched the recording and took notes later that afternoon.

Other students said they relied on lecture recordings to enhance their learning. One said:

I find I get more out of the lecture by listening to it in my own time and at my own pace […] I prefer to be able to pause the recorded video to research more in-depth into cases and theories to add to my notes.

Some students with additional learning needs said the option not to attend class, and to access lecture recordings, was an important equity measure.

What should we do?

Lecture recordings bring important benefits for students. They can also be necessary for students with personal, work or health difficulties.

But recordings are clearly contributing to declining lecture attendance, too. We propose three possible paths forward for universities and teachers, each with their own advantages and disadvantages.

First, we can simply persist with the traditional model of recorded lectures. Teachers will need to accept attendance will likely be low and student learning, experience and wellness should instead be the focus of tutorials and other small group classes.

Second, we can introduce more active learning into lectures to encourage greater attendance. This could include small group exercises, in-class polling or role-plays.

Read more: Let’s not abandon the humble lecture quite yet

But this would mean lecture recordings would be less useful for students. It would undercut the flexibility recordings offer and may cause equity concerns.

Third, we can change our teaching methodology to a “flipped” approach. This means the main way students would get information would be through online resources and activities. Face-to-face classes would then be dedicated to engaging students in deeper learning through collaborative activities.

Though this frees up lecture time for more effective learning, it would require appropriate support and training for teachers. Teachers, many of whom already work under significant time constraints, would need to invest more time and energy into their lessons.

Unfortunately there is not a one-size fits all answer to the conundrum of declining lecture attendance. But learning and teaching policies, such as mandatory lecture recording, should be informed by an evidence-based understanding of the likely consequences for staff and students.

– ref. Lecture recordings mean fewer students are turning up – does it matter? – https://theconversation.com/lecture-recordings-mean-fewer-students-are-turning-up-does-it-matter-131988

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Carlo Perrotta, Senior lecturer, Monash University

The spread of the coronavirus disease known as COVID-19 is a public health emergency with economic and social ramifications in China and across the world. While the impacts on business are well documented, education is also facing the largest disruption in recent memory.

Institutions around the world are responding to travel bans and quarantines with a shift to online learning. The crisis may trigger an online boom for education – or at least make us more ready to cope with the next emergency.

Education disrupted

As many as 180 million Chinese students – primary, secondary and tertiary – are homebound or unable to travel. In China, the spring semester was originally scheduled to begin on February 17 but has now been postponed indefinitely. In response, Chinese institutions are attempting to switch to online education on a massive scale.

Effects of the epidemic are also being felt closer to home. Australian higher education is increasingly dependent on a steady flow of Chinese students, but the Australian government has restricted travel from China until at least 29 February. At the time of writing, thousands of students are still in limbo.

Read more: Australian unis may need to cut staff and research if government extends coronavirus travel ban

As a result, Australian higher education institutions are trying to boost their online capacity to deliver courses to stranded concerned students. Some universities – and some parts of universities – are better prepared than others. While all universities use online learning management systems and videoconferencing technology to some degree, there are no mandatory standards for online education.

This makes for a huge variety among institutions and even between individual courses in how digitised they are. To make this worse, not all staff are familiar with (or feel positive about) distance or blended learning.

Will ed-tech ever take off?

Educational technology has historically struggled with large-scale adoption and much has been written about the cycles of boom and bust of the ed-tech industry. It may even be legitimate to ask whether adoption is a goal any longer for many in the industry.

Nowadays, a critical observer could be forgiven for thinking that the most successful ed-tech companies only pay lip service to mass adoption. Instead, their energies are firmly directed at the more remunerative game of (overinflated) start-up funding and selling.

Yet visions of mass adoption are still what drives the volatile dynamics of ed-tech financing. Investors ultimately hope that an innovation will, at some point in the near future, be used by large numbers of students and teachers.

Is the coronavirus a ‘black swan’ for online learning?

In 2014 Michael Trucano, a World Bank specialist on education and technology policy, described the importance of “tipping points” to push educational technology into the mainstream. Trucano suggested that epidemics (he talked about the 2003 SARS epidemic, but the argument applies to COVID-19) could be “black swans”. The term is borrowed from the American thinker Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who uses it to describe unanticipated events with profound consequences.

During the SARS outbreak, according to Trucano, China was forced into boosting alternative forms of distance education. This led to pockets of deeper, more transformational uses of online tools, at least temporarily. The long-term effects are still unclear.

Read more: The coronavirus outbreak is the biggest crisis ever to hit international education

The current landscape of global digital education suggests COVID-19 may result in more robust capabilities in regions with enough resources, connectivity and infrastructure. However, it is also likely to expose chronic deficiencies in less prepared communities, exacerbating pre-existing divides.

Investors appear to see this as a moment that could transform all kinds of online activity across the region. The stocks of Hong Kong-listed companies linked to online games, digital medical services, remote working and distance education have soared in recent days.

Online drawback

Adding to the complexity, students do not always welcome digital education, and research shows they are less likely to drop out when taught using “traditional” face-to-face methods.

Indeed, studies on the effectiveness of “virtual schools” have yielded mixed results. A recent study focusing on the US recommended virtual schools be restricted until the reasons for their poor performance are better understood.

Students may also oppose online learning because they perceive it as a sneaky attempt at forcing education down their throats. This may be what happened recently when DingTalk, a large Chinese messaging app, launched e-classes for schools affected by the coronavirus emergency. Unhappy students saw their forced vacation threatened and gave the app a bad rating on online stores in an attempt to drive it out of search results.

Perhaps this last story shouldn’t be taken too seriously, but it does highlight the importance of emotional responses in attempts to scale up an educational technology.

A permanent solution or a crisis response tool?

The importance of distance education in an increasingly uncertain world of global epidemics and other dramatic disruptions (such as wars and climate-related crises) is without doubt. So-called “developing countries” (including large rural regions in the booming Indian and Chinese economies) can benefit greatly from it, as it can help overcome emergencies and address chronic teacher shortages.

Once the current crisis passes, however, will things go “back to normal”? Or will we see a sustained increase in the mainstream adoption of online learning?

The answer is not at all obvious. Take Australia, for example. Even if we assume the COVID-19 emergency will lead to some permanent change in how more digitally-prepared Australian universities relate to Chinese students, it’s unclear what the change will look like.

Will we see more online courses and a growing market for Western-style distance education in Asia? Is this what the Chinese students (even the tech-savvy ones) really want? Is this what the Chinese economy needs?

Alternatively, perhaps, the crisis might lead to a more robust response system. Universities might develop the ability to move online quickly when they need to and go back to normal once things “blow over”, in a world where global emergencies look increasingly like the norm.

– ref. Coronavirus quarantine could spark an online learning boom – https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-quarantine-could-spark-an-online-learning-boom-132180

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bernadette McSherry, Foundation Director, Melbourne Social Equity Institute, University of Melbourne

In 2018, the Victorian Ombudsman, Deborah Glass, delivered a report about “the saddest case” she had ever seen.

A 39-year-old woman with a developmental disorder had been locked in her prison cell for up to 23 hours a day for more than 18 months. The woman had been charged with breaching an intervention order (a charge which was later dropped) and resisting arrest.

The Ombudsman commented this was not an isolated incident. Last year, The Age reported a 49-year-old wheelchair user with an acquired brain injury had spent three years in prison with no end date in sight after being charged with assault.

Read more: How Aboriginal women with disabilities are set on a path into the criminal justice system

What unites the circumstances of these two people with disabilities is both had been found “unfit to plead”. This finding may lead to indefinite detention and/or supervision despite no finding of guilt.

But there are viable alternatives. Criminal justice liaison officers, disability support workers and communication assistants can help people with cognitive disability understand the criminal process so they can choose to plead guilty or not guilty.

What are ‘unfitness to plead’ laws?

Unfitness to plead laws are based on the idea people accused of crimes should not be put on trial if they can’t understand the legal process and the charges against them. The main aim is to avoid unfair trials.

Once charged with a crime, they may not be released or left unsupervised because of concerns about community protection, yet they can’t be convicted or acquitted because holding a trial is considered unfair.

Unfitness to plead rulings mean people with conditions that affect their ability to learn, process, communicate and remember information can end up in detention indefinitely.

Read more: ‘Unfit to plead’: why does the law jail those with intellectual disabilities indefinitely?

There are too many people with cognitive disability in prison

In a previous article, I outlined how people with cognitive disability form a disproportionately large cohort of prisoners.

A 2011 report for the Victorian Department of Justice estimated 42% of male prisoners and 33% of female prisoners in Victoria had an acquired brain injury, compared to about 2% of the general population.

An infringement on their liberty

The Victorian Law Reform Commission estimated findings of unfit to plead or not guilty on the grounds of mental impairment make up less than 1% of the total cases that result in a sentence or supervision order in the higher courts.

While those affected by unfitness to plead laws may form a small subset of prisoners with cognitive disability and/or mental illness, data isn’t kept in Victoria on how often fitness to plead issues are raised in relation to summary offences (less serious offences). There’s also no national database to make comparisons about unfitness to plead cases across states and territories.

Extensive data indicates Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people with disabilities face added disadvantage in the criminal justice system. One 2012 report found 11 of 33 people deemed unfit to plead or “unsound of mind” in Western Australia were Indigenous. Further, all nine men on indefinite supervision orders in the Northern Territory found unfit to plead in 2012 were Indigenous.

Read more: Supporting, not imprisoning, Aboriginal people with disabilities could save millions

Efforts to provide support

In addition to law reforms, several initiatives are under way to support people who may be found unfit to plead navigate the criminal justice system.

The Australian Law Reform Commission recommended communication assistants and support people for them.

In October 2019, the Council of Australian Governments Disability Reform Council agreed the National Disability Insurance Agency should introduce justice liaison officers to support NDIS participants in youth and adult justice systems.

The NDIS is still developing the scheme, but it has the potential to help people with cognitive disability accused of a crime understand the trial process and in turn avoid findings of unfitness to plead.

There are several resources to support people with acquired brain injury and their supporters navigate the criminal justice system.

My colleagues and I developed a support program with three community legal centres in the Northern Territory, New South Wales and Victoria in 2017 which participants evaluated highly. This model could be cost-effective.

The disability royal commission

The disability royal commission has released an issues paper on criminal justice and people with disabilities which reflects on a number of issues raised in this article.

The commission is seeking submissions on what supports can help keep people with disabilities out of the criminal justice system or stay safe within the system.

Read more: Caring for ex-prisoners under the NDIS would save money and lives

– ref. People with cognitive disability shouldn’t be in prison because they’re ‘unfit to plead’. There are alternatives – https://theconversation.com/people-with-cognitive-disability-shouldnt-be-in-prison-because-theyre-unfit-to-plead-there-are-alternatives-131295