Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brian Oliver, Research Leader in Respiratory cellular and molecular biology at the Woolcock Institute of Medical Research and Professor, Faculty of Science, University of Technology Sydney

In previous years, Australians might have been exposed to bushfire smoke for a few days, or even a week. But this bushfire season is extreme in every respect. Smoke haze has now regularly featured in Australian weather reports for several weeks, stretching across months in some areas.

What we considered to be short-term exposure we must now call medium-term exposure.

Given this is a new phenomenon, we don’t know for sure what prolonged exposure to bushfire smoke could mean for future health. But here’s what air pollution and health data can tell us about the sorts of harms we might be looking at.

Read more: Climate change set to increase air pollution deaths by hundreds of thousands by 2100

Short-term effects

We know poor air quality is having immediate effects, from irritated eyes and throats, to more serious incidents requiring hospital admission – particularly for people with existing respiratory and heart conditions.

After the smoke haze hit Melbourne on Monday, Ambulance Victoria recorded a 51% increase in calls for breathing difficulties.

This aligns with Australian and international research on the acute effects of exposure to bushfire smoke.

But the long-term effects aren’t so clear.

Long-term effects: what we know

When considering the long-term health consequences of air pollution, we draw on data from heavily polluted regions, typically in Africa, or Asia, where people are exposed to high levels of airborne pollution for years.

It’s no surprise long-term exposure to air pollution negatively affects health over their lifetime. It’s associated with an increased risk of several cancers, and chronic health conditions like respiratory and heart disease.

The World Health Organisation estimates ambient air pollution contributes to 4.2 million premature deaths globally per year.

A recent study in China reported long-term exposure to a high concentration of ultrafine particles called PM2.5 (which we find in bushfire smoke) is linked to an increased risk of stroke.

Read more: How does poor air quality from bushfire smoke affect our health?

We also know the dose of exposure is important. So the worse the pollution, the greater the the health effects.

It’s likely some of these long-term effects will occur in Australia if prolonged bushfires become an annual event.

Experimental studies

Observational studies, like the Chinese one mentioned above, demonstrate the long-term health effects of long-term exposure to air pollution. But we don’t really have any studies like this following populations which have experienced short- or medium-term exposure.

To explore the health risks of more limited exposure, we can look to experimental data from cell and animal models.

These studies follow the models for days (short-term) or weeks (medium-term). They show exposure to any type of airborne pollution – from traffic, bushfires, wood or coal smoke – is detrimental for health.

The results show increased inflammation in the body, and depending on the model, increased incidence of respiratory or heart disease.

What about bushfire smoke?

We don’t have a lot of experimental data on the effects of bushfire smoke specifically, apart from a few studies on cells in the lab.

In my lab we’ve found the short-term in-vitro effects of bushfire smoke are comparable to the smoke from cigarettes. This does not however mean the long-term heath effects would be the same.

Read more: Pregnant women should take extra care to minimise their exposure to bushfire smoke

If we think about what’s burning during a bushfire – grass, leaves, twigs, bushes and trees – it’s also reasonable to draw on experimental data from wood smoke.

Wood smoke contains at least 200 different chemicals; some of them possible carcinogens.

In one small study, ten volunteers were exposed to wood smoke for four 15 minute periods over two hours. Afterwards, participants experienced increased neutophis, a type of agressive white blood cell, in both their lungs and circulation. The concentration of particulate matter in the wood smoke was lower than the levels we’ve seen in Sydney.

These short term studies show bushfire smoke is toxic, and it’s this toxicity which is likely to cause long-term effects.

One review found lifelong exposure to wood smoke, for example from indoor heaters, is associated with a 20% increased risk of developing lung cancer. Though it’s important to remember this is long-term exposure; the risks associated with medium-term exposure are not yet known.

How can we apply these findings?

Taking data from one type of airborne pollution and applying it to different pollutants – for example comparing the smoke from only one type of wood to bushfire pollution – is complex. The chemical make up is likely to differ between pollutants, so we need to be cautious extrapolating results.

We also need to be wary about how we translate results from cell and animal studies to humans. Different people are likely to respond to bushfire smoke differently. Our genetic make up is important here.

And with variable factors like at what age the exposure starts, how long it lasts, and other factors we’re exposed to during our lives (which don’t exist in a petri dish), it’s difficult to ascertain how many people will be at risk, and who in particular.

Looking past the haze

The human body actually has a remarkable capacity to cope with air pollution. It appears our genes help protect us from some of the toxic effects of smoke inhalation.

But this doesn’t mean we’re immune to the effect of bushfire smoke; just that we can tolerate a certain amount.

So would a once in a lifetime medium-term exposure have a chronic effect? At the moment there’s no way of answering this.

Read more: How rising temperatures affect our health

But if, as many people fear, this medium term exposure becomes a regular event, it could cross into the long-term exposure we see in some countries, where people are exposed to poor air quality for most of the year. In this scenario, there’s clear evidence we’ll be at higher risk of disease and premature death.

For now, we desperately need studies to help us understand the effects of medium-term exposure to bushfire smoke.

– ref. We know bushfire smoke affects our health, but the long-term consequences are hazy – http://theconversation.com/we-know-bushfire-smoke-affects-our-health-but-the-long-term-consequences-are-hazy-129451

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Salvatore Ferraro, PhD candidate, RMIT University

Calls by the head of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission Rod Sims for Australian businesses to cut the hurdle rates of return they expect on new investments should be taken with a grain of salt.

A hurdle rate is the minimum annual return that an investor or firm demands in order to allow a new project to go ahead.

For years, interest rates have been falling, cutting the cost of borrowing, but the hurdle rates of return demanded from that borrowing have remained little changed.

Sims told the Australian Financial Review this month that the rates of return demanded should be lower because interest rates were lower.

“We don’t want to lose investment that we should otherwise get because of hurdle rates that are too high,” he said.

“And we don’t want overseas companies coming in and buying our assets because they’ve got more realistic hurdle rates”.

It is straight from the Reserve Bank’s playbook.

Both the present Reserve Bank governor Phillip Lowe and his predecessor Glenn Stevens have said the same thing.

“We hear reports that a hurdle rate of return of 13-14% has been hard-wired into the corporate culture in some companies,” Lowe said in October.

Yet, “at low interest rates, many investments that didn’t make sense at higher interest rates should now make sense”.

This is especially so for investments with long-term payoffs, because future returns no longer need to be discounted as highly. This means that low interest rates give us the opportunity to lengthen our horizons and think about projects with really long-term payoffs.

Lowe and Sims are right to observe that some hurdle rates remain surprisingly high.

What if the reluctance to invest is rational?

Investment in mining and manufacturing projects is way below earlier peaks notwithstanding record low interest rates, even though investment in other industries is close to its historical high.

Which suggests something else could be in play, and not only here. Some overseas hurdle rates are as high as 12% to 15%.

A dampened appetite for risk is one explanation, thanks to a rise in global economic policy uncertainty. Another is challenging business conditions, especially in Australia’s two largest sectors; banking and resources.

Consensus estimates of future profits have been downgraded.

Profit forecasts have been downgraded

Among the ASX 200, which are the 200 most valuable companies traded on the Australian Securities Exchange, the consensus forecast for annual returns has slid to its lowest point in three years. Among the major banks consensus estimates have slid to their lowest level in two decades.

This largely reflects the lift in minimum capital requirements imposed by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, higher compliance costs associated with the implementation of the banking royal commission recommendations and the divestment of high returning wealth management businesses whose activities are no longer tenable for banks in the wake of the royal commission.

Demands from shareholders have been upgraded

In contrast, the expected profitability of mining companies has improved. But they are increasingly disciplined about how they use their capital, focused instead on generating free cash flow.

They are conscious of catering to greater demand from their shareholders for dividends and share buybacks.

Those shareholders remember well the destructive growth strategies pursued at the peak of the China boom a decade ago.

Most are happy that the dividend payout ratio for the sector has climbed well above long term norms to 60%, meaning that six dollars out of every ten dollars of profit is paid out to shareholders rather than invested back in the business.

Read more: We asked 13 economists how to fix things. All back the RBA governor over the treasurer

Against this backdrop, the competition watchdog and the Reserve Bank bemoaning what they consider to be stubbornly high hurdle rates will do little to precipitate a recovery in investment.

The Reserve Bank would achieve more by making an unambiguous commitment to do whatever it takes to achieve its inflation target, which it has undershot for the past five years.

It would boost expectations for wages growth, which remains close to record lows, boost consumer spending, and make investment more worthwhile.

– ref. High hurdle rates are holding back businesses, but perhaps they should be – http://theconversation.com/high-hurdle-rates-are-holding-back-businesses-but-perhaps-they-should-be-129435

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yves Rees, David Myers Research Fellow, La Trobe University

Today marks the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the League of Nations — the intergovernmental organisation, headquartered in Geneva, that emerged from the ashes of the first world war.

Although the League was branded a failure due to its inability to prevent the second world war, recent scholarship has stressed that its legacies continued long after 1939. As the template for modern global governance, and direct precursor to the United Nations, the League profoundly shaped the world we live in today.

For Australia, the League’s establishment marked the beginning of our independence on the global stage. Thanks to the lobbying of Prime Minister Billy Hughes, Australia was granted the right to participate as an autonomous member nation. For the first time, our young nation would step out from Britain’s shadow and speak for itself in international affairs.

But who would speak for Australia?

A century ago, Australia was renowned as an international leader in women’s rights. The Commonwealth Franchise Act (1902) made us the world’s first nation to grant white women the right to vote and stand for parliament. The League was also on board with equality of the sexes. Article 7 of the League Covenant stipulated that all positions were “open equally to men and women.”

Read more: Birth of a nation: how Australia empowering women taught the world a lesson

Yet despite Australia’s reputation as a feminist trailblazer, our 1920 and 1921 delegations to the annual League of Nations General Assembly were male-only affairs.

Australian women’s organisations were determined to get women included. From early 1921, the National Council of Women lobbied Prime Minister Billy Hughes to follow the example of Norway and Sweden and send a female delegate to Geneva. The President of the International Council of Women, Lady Aberdeen, also lent her support.

Hughes was loath to heed these calls but he did make a partial concession: the 1922 Australian League delegation would include a woman as “substitute” or “alternative” delegate, to represent the nation “on all questions relating to women and children.”

The individual chosen was Sydney feminist and playwright Marguerite Dale, who travelled to Geneva alongside three men.

Read more: Hidden women of history: Flos Greig, Australia’s first female lawyer and early innovator

Female substitute delegates

From 1922 until 1939, every Australian League delegation included a female substitute (the League formally disbanded in 1946, but no General Assemblies were held during the war). Local women’s organisations made nominations. The federal government made the final selection.

The women chosen tended to be prominent feminists and social reformers, such as Bessie Rischbieth (1935), founding president of the Australian Federation of Women Voters; pioneering woman doctor and National Council of Women leader Roberta Jull (1929); and Melbourne Argus journalist Stella May Allan, known as “Vesta” (1924).

These women were real-life versions of Edith Campbell Berry, the protagonist of Frank Moorhouse’s celebrated trilogy of novels Grand Days (1993), Dark Palace (2001) and Cold Light (2011), which depict an Australian woman’s diplomatic exploits in interwar Geneva.

Australia’s female delegates stayed at the Hotel de la Paix, overlooking Lake Geneva, and were swept up in a hectic schedule of meetings and social events. Expected to confine their activities to “women’s issues”, they were typically appointed to the fifth committee, concerned with humanitarian affairs.

Before an audience of international diplomats and global media, they spoke on issues such as the traffic in women and children and the welfare of adolescents.

One individual who deviated from “women’s issues” was 1927 substitute delegate Alice Moss, who became the first woman appointed to the League’s finance committee.

Read more: Bringing Edith home: Frank Moorhouse’s Cold Light

Also notably outspoken was Ethel Osborne, who in 1932 put forward a motion to the political committee to increase women’s involvement as delegates and secretariat officials.

After returning home, Australia’s female substitutes worked to mobilise public opinion in support of the League. At women’s groups and town halls nationwide, they delivered passionate entreaties about its importance. “If we were to allow it go out of existence, we would be stepping right back into the middle ages,” insisted 1936 substitute delegate Edith Waterworth.

Meanwhile, the campaign for a full woman delegate continued unsuccessfully. Indeed, for the life of the League, only men would represent Australia as full delegates.

Yet Australia was still one of the few countries to consistently include women in its League delegations.

There were only six women out of 177 total delegates at the 1922 General Assembly, a figure which climbed to 14 in 1930. As late as 1936, when 50 countries sent delegations to the League Assembly, there were still only a mere 12 women included.

Women at the table

The tide finally turned in 1943, when Australia began to recruit women into the diplomatic service. That year, Julia Drake-Brockman, Diana Hodgkinson and Bronnie Taylor were appointed the nation’s first female diplomatic cadets. In 1946, Drake-Brockman was named third secretary to the Australian delegation to the brand-new United Nations in New York.

At the UN, Drake-Brockman worked alongside feminist Jessie Street, who was instrumental in enshrining the principle of gender equality in the UN Charter.

In the UN era, Australian women’s diplomatic work would continue to be dogged by sexism — Drake-Brockman’s 1946 marriage prematurely ended her promising career – but they were permitted to represent the nation on ostensibly equal standing with men.

Yet it would take until 1974 for Australia to appoint its first female ambassador, and until 1997 to have a female Head of Mission to the UN.

And, importantly, aside from rare exceptions — such as Aboriginal activist Joyce Clague, who participated in a 1966 UNESCO conference — Australia’s Indigenous women and women of colour were not given opportunity to represent the nation on the global stage.

Only in 2018, when Julie-Ann Guivarra was appointed ambassador to Spain, was an Indigenous Australian finally included at the highest levels of international diplomacy.

– ref. The League of Nations was formed 100 years ago today. Meet the Australian women who lobbied to join it – http://theconversation.com/the-league-of-nations-was-formed-100-years-ago-today-meet-the-australian-women-who-lobbied-to-join-it-129185

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Benjamin T. Jones, Lecturer in History, CQUniversity Australia

Bill Shorten promised a plebiscite on Australia becoming a republic if he won the 2019 federal election. That did not happen but it is interesting to imagine what the result of such a vote would have been.

On the one hand, membership of the chief lobby group, the Australian Republic Movement, has been growing steadily since 2015. For monarchists, however, the popularity of the Princes William and Harry and their young families has been seen as crucial to maintaining the royal link.

This is why the decision of Harry and his wife Meghan Markle to “step back” from their position as senior royals and split their time between North America and Britain is significant.

A large part of the couple’s appeal is that they appear relatable when compared to the Queen or Prince Charles. It certainly is relatable for a couple in their 30s with a young family to want to move from home and be financially independent. The catch for monarchists is that much of the couple’s popularity comes from their rejecting traditional royal roles.

Harry’s public image has been carefully stage managed by Buckingham Palace. With his father, brother, nephews and niece all ahead of him, it is unlikely he will ever assume the throne. Nevertheless, he remains one of the most recognisable royals and is key to how the public, in Britain and Australia, sees the royal family.

As a younger man, Harry had a reputation for wild parties and was notoriously spotted wearing a Nazi uniform. His career in the military and his advocacy for wounded soldiers, however, have endeared him to many. His marriage to a popular actor was a further coup for the royal marketing team.

The Queen is the longest serving British sovereign, having reigned for 67 years. There has long been concern that her son, and next in line to the throne, Charles, does not share her popularity. Monarchists fear that his reign could spark republican movements around the Commonwealth and even in Britain.

The disturbing details of Prince Andrew’s relationship with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein have further eroded the reputation of the royal family. As a result, the roles of William and Harry as the public faces of the monarchy are seen as crucial. It is regularly rumoured the Queen may even bypass Charles to give the crown to William.

In this context, the decision of Harry and Meghan to step back and the perception that they, particularly Meghan, have been poorly treated by the royal family is a gift to republicans.

Australia and the monarchy

Australia’s relationship with the monarchy is complex. In the colonial era of the 19th century and the dominion era, until the middle of the 20th, the royals were seen as the epitome of Britishness. Crucially, Australians overwhelmingly also saw themselves as British.

The most spectacular example of a royal stepping back from their duties during this period was when Edward VIII abdicated in 1936. His decision to pursue a relationship with divorced, American, socialite Wallis Simpson caused a constitutional crisis. Australian prime minister Joseph Lyons concurred with other commonwealth leaders that she would not be accepted as queen so the king must abdicate.

Despite the scandal, it was never seriously proposed then that Australia should cut its ties with the British monarchy. This is a key contextual difference to today’s situation.

Harry and Meghan’s decision comes at a time when Australians are talking very seriously about becoming a republic, although recent polling has provided mixed results. A February 2018 poll by Research Now found 52% supported a republic with 25% unsure and just 22% supporting the monarchy.

A Newspoll in November 2018, just after a royal tour by Harry and Meghan, found only 40% supported a republic with 48% against. This was the first time since 1999 that a poll found more people opposed the change.

In 2019, it was even reportedly proposed that Harry might be made the governor-general of Australia. This move would have potentially boosted royal support but was ultimately dismissed.

A Dynata poll in June 2019 then found that support for a republic among under 25-year-olds had grown to 57%, with 50% of those 25-34 supporting a change.

With the future of the monarchy uncertain, Buckingham Palace appears disappointed with Harry and Meghan. An official statement noted “these are complicated issues that will take time to work through”. Reading between the lines, it’s likely the decision – reportedly made without consulting the Queen or Prince Charles – hurt.

The monarchy has transformed itself over the last century. Issues like divorce and marrying an American (both forbidden for Edward VIII) have been gradually, perhaps grudgingly, accepted. Its chameleon-like nature has let it survive from the age of empires to the age of democracy.

In principle, the issue of a republic (in Australia or Britain) is separate from the personalities of the royal family. Regardless, if Harry and Meghan are seen as separated from the monarchy, or worse yet, victims of it, its long term survival is threatened.

– ref. Prince Harry’s decision to ‘step back’ from the monarchy is a gift to republicans – http://theconversation.com/prince-harrys-decision-to-step-back-from-the-monarchy-is-a-gift-to-republicans-129624

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emma Hutchison, Associate Professor and ARC DECRA Fellow, The University of Queensland

With 26 fatalities, half a billion animals impacted and 10.7 million hectares of land burnt, Australia faces a record-breaking bushfire season.

Yet, amid the despondency, moving stories have emerged of phenomenal fundraising conducted through social media.

At the forefront is Australian comedian Celeste Barber, whose Facebook fundraiser has raised more than AUD$45 million – the largest amount in the platform’s history.

Presenting shocking visuals, sites such as Instagram, Twitter and Facebook have been monumental in communicating the severity of the fires.

But at a time when experts predict worsening climate conditions and longer fire seasons, short bursts of compassion and donations aren’t enough.

For truly effective action against current and future fires, we need to use social media to implement lasting transformations, to our attitudes, and our ability to address climate change.

Get out of your echo-chamber

Links between social media and public engagement are complex. Their combination can be helpful, as we’re witnessing, but doesn’t necessarily help solve problems requiring long-term attention.

Read more: Climate change is bringing a new world of bushfires

Online spaces can cultivate polarising, and sometimes harmful, debate.

Past research indicates the presence of online echo chambers, and users’ tendency to seek interaction with others holding the same beliefs as them.

If you’re stuck in an echo chamber, Harvard Law School lecturer Erica Ariel Fox suggests breaking the mould by going out of your way to understand diverse opinions.

Before gearing up to disagree with others, she recommends acknowledging the contradictions and biases you yourself hold, and embracing the opposing sides of yourself.

In tough times, many start to assign blame – often with political or personal agendas.

In the crisis engulfing Australia, we’ve seen this with repeated accusations from conservatives claiming the Greens party have made fire hazard reduction more difficult.

In such conversations, larger injustices and the underlying political challenges are often forgotten. The structural conditions underpinning the crisis remain unchallenged.

Slow and steady

We need to rethink our approach to dealing with climate change, and its harmful effects.

First, we should acknowledge there is no quick way to resolve the issue, despite the immediacy of the threats it poses.

Political change is slow, and needs steady growth. This is particularly true for climate politics, an issue which challenges the social and economic structures we rely on.

Our values and aspirations must also change, and be reflected in our online conversations. Our dialogue should shift from blame to a culture of appreciation, and growing concern for the impact of climate degradation.

Users should continue to explore and learn online, but need to do so in an informed way.

Reading Facebook and Twitter content is fine, but this must be complemented with reliable news sources. Follow authorised user accounts providing fact-based articles and guidance.

Before you join an online debate, it’s important you can back your claims. This helps prevent the spread of misinformation online, which is unfortunately rampant.

A 2018 Reuters Institute report found people’s interaction (sharing, commenting and reacting) with false news from a small number of Facebook outlets “generated more or as many interactions as established news brands”.

Also, avoid regressive discussions with dead-ends. Social media algorithms dictate that the posts you engage with set the tone for future posts targeted at you, and more engagement with posts will make them more visible to other users too. Spend your time and effort wisely.

And lastly, the internet has made it easier than ever to contact political leaders, whether it’s tweeting at your prime minister, or reaching out to the relevant minister on Facebook.

Read more: Listen to your people Scott Morrison: the bushfires demand a climate policy reboot

Tangible change-making

History has proven meaningful social and political progress requires sustained public awareness and engagement.

Consider Australia’s recent legislation on marriage equality, or the historical transformation of women’s rights.

These issues affect people constantly, but fixing them required debate over long periods.

We should draw on the awareness raised over the past weeks, and not let dialogue about the heightened threat of bushfires fizzle out.

We must not return to our practices of do-nothingism as soon as the immediate disaster subsides.

Although bushfire fundraisers have collected millions, a European Social Survey of 44,387 respondents from 23 countries found that – while most participants were worried about climate change – less than one-third were willing to pay higher taxes on fossil fuels.

If we want climate action, we must expect more from our governments but also from ourselves.

Social media should be used to consistently pressure government to take principled stances on key issues, not short-sighted policies geared towards the next election.

Opening the public’s eyes

There’s no denying social media has successfully driven home the extent of devastation caused by the fires.

A clip from Fire and Rescue NSW, viewed 7.8 million times on Twitter alone, gives audiences a view of what it’s like fighting on the frontlines.

Images of burnt, suffering animals and destroyed homes, resorts, farms and forests have signalled the horror of what has passed and what may come.

Social media can be a formidable source of inspiration and action. It’s expected to become even more pervasive in our lives, and this is why it must be used carefully.

While showings of solidarity are incredibly helpful, what happens in the coming weeks and months, after the fires pass, is what will matter most.

– ref. As fires rage, we must use social media for long-term change, not just short-term fundraising – http://theconversation.com/as-fires-rage-we-must-use-social-media-for-long-term-change-not-just-short-term-fundraising-129446

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Parmeter, Research Scholar, Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, Australian National University

US President Donald Trump’s statement overnight confirming the US would not take further military action in response to Iran’s missile strikes on American bases in Iraq eases regional tensions for now.

In hitting back at the US over last week’s assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, the leader of Iran’s elite Quds Force in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Iran was clearly pulling its punches.

The missiles it fired at US bases near Baghdad and in northern Iraq produced no US casualties and appear to have done little damage to the bases. Media reports quoting Western intelligence sources claim that some of the missiles were aimed deliberately short of the target. It’s clear the Iranian regime did not want to give Trump an excuse for retaliation.

Read more: Iran vows revenge for Soleimani’s killing, but here’s why it won’t seek direct confrontation with the US

Moreover, the regime has described its missile attacks as a “proportionate” response to Soleimani’s killing – which it obviously was not. It also said its response was “concluded”, implying it would not launch further strikes against the US.

In addition, according to several media reports, Iranian officials have claimed to their domestic audience the strikes killed more than 80 US military personnel, but the US is hiding the real toll. Such statements are aimed at quelling popular pressure for a more robust response.

Fortunately for the region, Trump’s overnight statement indicates he is prepared to leave matters at that. In addition, there is no evidence yet the crash of a Ukrainian airliner shortly after take-off from Tehran’s airport is linked to the missile strikes (though investigations are continuing).

That means that, for now, the risk of escalating tit-for-tat strikes or something closer to all out war between the US and Iran has receded. Most in the region will now breathe easier. This is especially true for Iraq, which could have been drawn into a broader conflict as there are still about 5,000 US troops stationed there.

But many questions remain unresolved, any of which could heighten the risk of renewed military conflict between the two sides.

Can Iran pressure Iraq to expel American troops?

A first friction point is whether US troops will remain in Iraq much longer.

Last week, the Iraqi parliament ordered the expulsion of all foreign forces (which include Australian military trainers) from Iraq. Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi has said he will implement the parliament’s demand – which the parliament itself has no power to enforce.

Abdul Mahdi is also under enormous pressure from Iran to expel US forces. The Iranian regime would clearly see their removal as additional payback to the US for the Soleimani assassination.

But Abdul Mahdi, a moderate, is known to fear a possible resurgence of the Islamic State in Iraq. The group’s rise there in 2014 was the reason the Iraqi government invited US forces to return after they had left in 2011. Iraqi forces by themselves would probably not be able to contain IS.

Moreover, the US has given Iraq US$5.8 billion in military aid since 2014.

Read more: What next for Iran’s proxy network after killing of Qassem Soleimani

A further problem from Abdel Mahdi is that Trump has threatened sanctions on Iraq if it expels US forces. He has implied that such sanctions would also include repayment of aid moneys.

While US troops remain in Iraq, there is the constant prospect of lethal attacks on them by a range of Iraqi militias loyal to Iran, such as Kata’ib Hezbollah, the militia that started the latest US-Iranian confrontation by killing a US contractor in late December.

Another militia strike that resulted in a US death would almost certainly spur a Trump military response against Iran – which Iran would, in turn, likely react to.

What happens with the nuclear deal now?

The second friction point is Iran’s statement following the Soleimani killing that it is no longer bound by the restrictions of the nuclear deal Iran signed with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany in 2015.

This agreement, from which Trump withdrew in 2018, put restrictions on Iran’s uranium enrichment and stockpile levels with the aim of preventing the country from developing a nuclear weapon.

Iran said earlier this week it would no longer remain bound by the deal’s restrictions, meaning it would, if it chose, exceed the enrichment and stockpiling limitations. At the same time, however, it said it would remain within the deal and continue to allow inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

This playing with words appears to have been aimed at keeping the Europeans (Britain, France and Germany) from re-imposing UN sanctions on Iran if it formally left the agreement.

Read more: Iran’s cultural heritage reflects the grandeur and beauty of the golden age of the Persian empire

Significantly, in his overnight statement, Trump emphasised that Iran would never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon. The strong implication was that if Iran is discovered to be enriching uranium to weapons grade, the US will take action to stop this.

Such action would probably be military, though the US has worked with Israel in the past on cyber-technology to stymie Iran’s enrichment centrifuges.

That raises the question of how effective continuing IAEA oversight of Iran’s nuclear program will be. Before the nuclear deal was agreed, Iran was adept at putting obstacles in the way of IAEA inspectors – though it does not appear to have done so since the agreement entered into force.

Neither side wanting further conflict

For all the fragility of the current situation, there are two reasons to hope that calm will prevail for at least the next few weeks.

The first is that Iran’s options are limited. The relatively minor missile attacks on Wednesday indicate Iran does want to take on the US in direct conflict. Iran knows it would suffer.

The second is that Trump appears happy to declare victory and leave matters roughly as they stand.

He can boast to his now fiercely re-energised base that his action in eliminating Soleimani has made Americans safer. He also won’t want to get into a major Middle East conflict in an election year. Indeed, the opposite. He will almost certainly try to remove US troops from Iraq this year – but on his terms, not Iran’s.

So far, this is a win for Trump.

– ref. Iran and US step back from all-out war, giving Trump a win (for now) – http://theconversation.com/iran-and-us-step-back-from-all-out-war-giving-trump-a-win-for-now-129615

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Johan Barthélemy, Research Fellow, SMART Infrastructure Facility, University of Wollongong

As more commercial precincts develop, we see more shopping trolleys abandoned far away from the shops they belong to. Programs are in place to tackle this issue but haven’t solved the problem. We need a more sophisticated multi-pronged approach, including smart use of technology, to limit the number of abandoned trolleys and their impact.

Many councils have declared war on abandoned trolleys. A recent clean-up operation by four Western Sydney councils collected 550 trolleys in a day, Local Government NSW reported.

Read more: To end share-bike dumping, focus on how to change people’s behaviour

These wayward trolleys are not only making the streets and public spaces untidy, but also have negative social and environmental impacts. Trolleys left on the street or kerbside create safety risks for motorists, cyclists and pedestrians. Dumped trolleys can clog rivers, drains, creeks and culverts, which can contribute to flash flooding during extreme weather events.

Recovering trolleys is time-consuming and sometimes risky depending on the location. Collection often involves a significant cost to councils and commercial businesses.

A range of existing solutions

Due to its complexity this is not a “one size fits all” type of problem. A good starting point is the adoption of tougher policies and regulations by state and local governments.

These policies typically target the trolley owners, the retailers, making them accountable for their property and forcing them to be part of the solution. As a result, some supermarkets have encouraged customers to return trolleys after use by introducing coin-operated trolley locks or by offering rewards for returning lost trolleys.

Recent campaigns have also promoted responsible use of trolleys, with the message that abandoning a trolley is an act of littering or illegal dumping, which is subject to fines. This echoes policies already in place for share bikes and scooters.

However, Local Government NSW (LGNSW) President Linda Scott recently said:

Councils are virtually powerless because they can only fine customers who are caught abandoning trolleys in public places, which is impractical and almost impossible to enforce.

The NSW government is now considering giving councils stronger powers. This could include the power to fine retailers that fail to collect abandoned or impounded trolleys.

Involving the local community

To reduce the number of abandoned trolleys in an area, we first need to know where they are. Involving the local community is a good way to get that information. Councils and retailers can create dedicated channels to report lost trolleys via phone numbers, social media and smartphone applications.

A good example of a community engagement tool is Trolley Tracker. It’s a platform that includes online forms, a phone number and an app to report abandoned trolleys. This information goes to councils, retailers and collection contractors. Trolley Tracker has received reports of almost 3 million abandoned trolleys since its inception.

Research into understanding why trolleys are not returned would also allow councils and commercial businesses to create data-driven solutions.

Smart tracking solutions

Smart devices can be fitted to trolleys to ensure they do not leave the shopping precinct. These devices use geofencing, a location-based service that triggers an action or an alert when the device leaves a defined geographical area. The location of the device can be determined via GPS, WiFi, or any other wireless technology.

Geofencing follows the trolley in real time, making recovery easier. The device will send an alert when the trolley leaves its defined area.

These devices can also trigger a wheel-locking mechanism that activates automatically to stop trolleys being taken from the shopping precinct. This system has been implemented, for instance, in Ipswich and Cairns, Queensland.

Ipswich City Council fines retailers that fail to install wheel locks. “Today abandoned trolleys are a rare sight in Ipswich,” says the LGNSW, which is pushing for the system to be adopted in NSW.

Using artificial intelligence

Over the past decade, computer vision and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms have progressed very rapidly. AI can now be trained to detect specific objects such as trolleys in images and video.

Read more: AI can help in crime prevention, but we still need a human in charge

This trained algorithm could be deployed in the existing CCTV infrastructure of the council or the shopping centre. This would speed up the detection and collection of abandoned trolleys. While this approach has the benefit of using existing CCTV networks, the footage is limited to the field of view of the fixed cameras.

This limitation could be overcome by having councils collaborate with their garbage trucks. Indeed, these trucks are packed with cameras monitoring their surroundings at all times. As the trucks regularly patrol the whole road network, it is an easy fix to embed the AI in these trucks for monitoring and locating abandoned trolleys.

Through a mix of complementary solutions including policies, community engagement, smart tracking technologies and AI, it is possible to reduce the number of abandoned trolleys.

– ref. The war on abandoned trolleys can be won. Here’s how – http://theconversation.com/the-war-on-abandoned-trolleys-can-be-won-heres-how-127718

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matteo Farina, Adjunct Lecturer, Flinders University

The world is starting to see the gradual decline of Facebook, with 15 million US users dropping off between 2017 and last year.

Nonetheless, Facebook remains the largest social network in the world. As of late last year, almost 60% of Australians had a Facebook account, half of whom logged-on daily.

And while most of us intuitively understand what others find interesting, there’s a growing body of research on online engagement and the characteristics of viral content.

For my research, I studied more than 1,200 posts from 266 Facebook users – everyday people aged 21-40 – to identify the common denominator among “successful” Facebook posts.

Share if you agree

For the study, I decided to create a distinction between “likes” and comments. I treated likes as a simpler form of acknowledgement, and comments as a more active mode of engagement – they require time, effort and a deeper understanding of the content.

Read more: #travelgram: live tourist snaps have turned solo adventures into social occasions

I found posts which performed relatively well in terms of engagement (more than five comments), could be characterised by certain linguistic features.

Successful posts tended to prompt further action from readers, or used humour to engage.

Conversations on Facebook feeds generally start by “tellings”, meaning posts which contain narratives. For example, what a friend is doing, a video, or a selfie.

Among the content I studied, the more popular posts requested a response of some kind, usually through questions, or requests such as “click on this funny link”.

Simply adding “what do you think of this?” at the end of a post was likely to increase engagement – and this was true for posts with varying subject matters.

I also found posts that were simple to understand performed better, as opposed to those which were vague or confusing – sometimes referred to as vaguebooking, like this example:

Laughter is the best medicine

Humour also increased engagement.

Research has shown conversations driven by jokes encourage involvement and inclusion.

I observed this too, with funny posts securing more responses. Similarly, posts that were not overtly funny were more likely to do well if they received funny comments.

Ongoing conversations also stimulate further engagement. Successful Facebook users didn’t just post content, they also responded to comments on their posts.

The take home message?

Although the success of Facebook content also relies on privacy settings, the number of friends a user has, how active the user is and how popular they are outside Facebook, strategically designed posts can give any user a quick upper hand.

And it’s likely you can use the same principles on other platforms such as Twitter or Instagram.

Read more: Before you hit ‘share’ on that cute animal photo, consider the harm it can cause

– ref. Winning at social media is probably simpler than you think – http://theconversation.com/winning-at-social-media-is-probably-simpler-than-you-think-128704

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rosemary Williamson, Senior Lecturer, School of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, University of New England

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has been harshly criticised for being on holiday in Hawaii as the catastrophic bushfires were burning Australia.

Since his return, he has visited stricken communities – most recently, on Kangaroo Island yesterday. He has acknowledged the emotional toll on victims and promised practical support.

But the criticism continues. Every detail of the prime minister’s performance is being scrutinised via the 24/7 news cycle and social media. There is plenty of scope for perceived missteps, and little tolerance of them.

Disaster of any kind throws qualities of leadership – or the perceived lack thereof – under the spotlight. By what criteria, then, do we evaluate a leader’s performance at such times? What do we look for?

How Jacinda Ardern got it right

These are questions that have guided my research on how prime ministers have historically connected with Australians during times of peril.

During crises, people expect two things, broadly speaking. One is practical information, advice and support to minimise the risk faced by those directly impacted. The other is “humanistic communication” – or, the ability to offer comfort.

Last March, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern showed both of these qualities in her decisive response to the massacre of 51 people at two mosques in Christchurch.

Read more: Politicians need to listen up before they speak up – and listen in the right places

She immediately provided detailed information and promised aid and tighter gun control measures. And she unambiguously aligned all New Zealanders with the Muslim community by what she said – “They are us” – and by standing with community leaders and comforting those in distress.

Importantly, Ardern also wore a headscarf when meeting the families of victims. This was seen as a strong and culturally sensitive statement of solidarity and support – a mark of good political leadership.

Being on the ground to see themselves

Australian leaders have long shown strength in times of need, but the way they do so has changed over time. Today, there’s much more emphasis on being visible.

Following the Black Sunday bushfires in Victoria in 1926, for example, The Age printed a speech by Prime Minister Stanley Bruce in which he promised federal government aid and praised the heroism and altruism of Australians.

When the Black Friday fires devastated the state 13 years later, The Age quoted an “appalled” Prime Minister Joseph Lyons, who promised aid and expressed his “heartfelt sympathy” to victims.

But nothing was said in the newspapers back then about either prime minister interacting directly with victims.

Read more: Scott Morrison’s biggest failure in the bushfire crisis: an inability to deliver collective action

A leader wouldn’t get away with that these days. Since televisions became ubiquitous in people’s homes, it’s become necessary for leaders to be on the ground following a disaster, surveying damage and consoling victims.

Prime Minister Harry Holt, a savvy user of the media in the early years of television, travelled to Tasmania in the aftermath of the Black Tuesday fires in 1967. Holt said he had to go to see for himself, to better understand people’s experience and needs. A detailed study of the 1967 bushfire response notes that Holt’s visit, while short, “caught the imagination” of journalists, who reported his reaction to the devastation in vivid detail.

This is what we now expect. Visits to disaster sites have become rituals vital to crisis management and a fixture of disaster reporting.

Listening to victims

For a prime minister, such visits are also a chance to express those inherent qualities of “Australianness” that guarantee a full recovery. Everything that is said and done matters, which is why small details are heavily scrutinised.

People do not expect to be held at arm’s length on these occasions. Expressions of empathy are often reinforced by physical contact, even hugs.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd demonstrated this following fires in Victoria in 2009, as did John Howard in the wake of the fires that swept through Canberra in 2003. They shook hands, patted backs and embraced survivors and emergency service workers.

Others have got it completely wrong. Among his many missteps in his response to Hurricane Katrina, President George W. Bush delayed returning to Washington from his vacation by two whole days. An image of him surveying the damage from Air Force One then backfired – a decision Bush later called a “huge mistake”.

When Hurricane Harvey devastated Texas in 2017, President Donald Trump was likewise criticised for paying too little attention to victims when he toured the site. And after the Grenfell Tower fire in London, UK Prime Minister Theresa May admitted that not meeting residents on her first visit was a mistake.

Misjudging what type of response is welcome from a leader also risks being seen as symptomatic of poor leadership, of being out of touch with the people. As we saw recently with Morrison, not everybody appreciates a handshake.

Stilettos and camouflage jackets

Even what a leader wears may be important. First Lady Melania Trump, for instance, was widely mocked for wearing stiletto heels to tour the Harvey devastation.

And when Prime Minister Julia Gillard went to Queensland in early 2011 following extensive flooding and held a press conference with Premier Anna Bligh, some commentators focused on the differences in their attire. Gillard, with her tidy suit, was criticised for not striking the right note. Bligh’s more casual appearance, meanwhile, had the look of someone more in touch with the suffering of the people.

Earlier this year, Morrison was also faulted for wearing a military camouflage jacket when touring a north Queensland flood zone, with some saying he was “hamming it up” for the cameras.

Authenticity matters more than anything

The reactions to Morrison’s handling of the bushfires shows how important these qualities are in our presidents and prime ministers and how they will continue to influence perceptions of leadership in times of crisis.

Just as every leader is different, every disaster also requires a distinct approach. Each demands quick and sensitive judgements about what’s appropriate for the occasion. Reaction to any perceived errors of judgement will be swift and will spread quickly.

Above all, we look for authenticity in these moments, rather than obviously scripted photo opportunities. And in times of crisis, we’re more attuned to those out-of-touch moments when authenticity seems to be lacking.

– ref. How should leaders respond to disasters? Be visible, offer real comfort – and don’t force handshakes – http://theconversation.com/how-should-leaders-respond-to-disasters-be-visible-offer-real-comfort-and-dont-force-handshakes-129444

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Robertson, Professor and Director, Robinson Research Institute, University of Adelaide

Smoke haze from Australia’s catastrophic bushfires is continuing to affect many parts of the country.

Although there’s no safe level of air pollution, the health hazards tend to be greatest for vulnerable groups. Alongside people with pre-existing conditions, smoke exposure presents unique risks for pregnant women.

Research shows prolonged exposure to bushfire smoke increases the risk of pregnancy complications including high blood pressure, gestational diabetes, low birth weight and premature birth (before 37 weeks).

These conditions can have short-term and lifelong effects on a baby’s health, with increased risk of conditions including cerebral palsy and visual or hearing impairment. Even babies born only a few weeks early can experience learning difficulties and behavioural problems, and have an elevated risk of heart disease in later life.

So it’s especially important pregnant women protect themselves from exposure to bushfire smoke.

Read more: How does poor air quality from bushfire smoke affect our health?

Why are pregnant women at higher risk?

Pregnant women breathe at an increased rate, and their hearts need to work harder than those of non-pregnant people to transport oxygen to the fetus. This makes them particularly vulnerable to the effects of air pollution, including bushfire smoke.

We often measure poor air quality by the presence of ultra-fine particles called PM2.5 (small particles of less than 2.5 micrometres in size). These particles are concerning because they can penetrate into our lungs, and into blood and tissue to cause inflammation throughout the body.

Importantly in pregnant women, environmental pollutants can cause inflammatory damage to the placenta’s blood supply. This can interfere with the placenta’s development and function, which can in turn compromise the growth of the fetus.

What the evidence says

Many studies have linked poor air quality, particularly high PM2.5 levels, to poor pregnancy outcomes. Data from 183 countries showed in 2010, an estimated 2.7 million premature births, 18% of the total, were associated with PM2.5 pollution.

A 2019 study of more than 500,000 pregnant women from Colorado looked at the effect of bushfire smoke on pregnancy outcomes. The authors analysed data on air quality, fire incidence and pregnancy and birth records from 2007-2015, during which time Colorado was regularly affected by smoke from fires burning in California and the Pacific Northwest.

The study found PM2.5 due to bushfire smoke was linked to spikes in premature birth, especially in women exposed during the second trimester.

In women exposed to smoke during the first trimester, birth weight was lower than average. Further, exposure during any trimester increased the chance of gestational diabetes and high blood pressure.

The effects were detectable even with low exposure to smoke and small increases in PM2.5. For every 1 microgram/m³ increase in average daily exposure to PM2.5 during the second trimester of pregnancy, the risk of premature birth increased by 13%.

To put this into context, in Canberra in the first week of January, PM2.5 levels averaged more than 200 micrograms/m³, compared with the typical background concentration of 5 micrograms/m³. EPA Victoria classifies PM2.5 levels above 25 micrograms/m³ as unsafe for vulnerable people.

Read more: Evacuating with a baby? Here’s what to put in your emergency kit

In another large study, a 24% increase in premature birth was seen after 10 micrograms/m³ increase in PM2.5.

As well as PM2.5, bushfire smoke contains larger PM10 particles, nitric oxides, carbon monoxide and other gases and toxic chemicals. These all have potential to impair lung and heart function in the mother, activate inflammation, and directly affect fetal and placental development.

Smoke threatens fertility, too

Air quality is also a factor for couples attempting to conceive or dealing with infertility.

Population studies suggest air pollution compromises human fertility by reducing ovarian reserve (the number of eggs in the ovary) and affecting sperm number and movement.

Direct exposure to fire, burns and fire retardant chemicals can also negatively impact fertility.

Read more: How to monitor the bushfires raging across Australia

Precautions to take if you’re pregnant

The best strategy is to reduce smoke exposure as much as possible. Recommendations from NSW Health include staying inside on high-risk days, sealing the house to prevent smoke infiltration and using air conditioning to keep cool.

Avoid creating smoke by cigarette smoking, burning candles, or frying and grilling. Use PM2 (N95) masks and air-filtering devices if possible, and avoid exposure to ash, which contains particulate material you can inhale.

Pregnant women in a fire region should carefully follow emergency services’ direction. It’s better to evacuate early, with an emergency supply kit containing clothes, medications, water and food you don’t need to cook.

Make sure your medication and prenatal vitamins are accessible, continue to take them, and stay well hydrated. Inform authorities and shelters you are pregnant and need to maintain your antenatal care.

Be aware of the signs of premature labour including abdominal cramps or contractions, a heavy vaginal discharge, loss of fluid or vaginal bleeding, pelvic pressure and low backache. Seek help if you think you may be going into labour.

Given what we know about the consequences of poor air quality on pregnancy outcomes, it’s critical pregnant women are given top priority when it comes to bushfire relief and health care support.

Read more: From face masks to air purifiers: what actually works to protect us from bushfire smoke?

– ref. Pregnant women should take extra care to minimise their exposure to bushfire smoke – http://theconversation.com/pregnant-women-should-take-extra-care-to-minimise-their-exposure-to-bushfire-smoke-129349

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Jones, Climate Scientist, Australian Bureau of Meteorology

The Bureau of Meteorology’s annual climate statement released today confirms 2019 was the nation’s warmest and driest year on record. It’s the first time since overlapping records began that Australia experienced both its lowest rainfall and highest temperatures in the same year.

The national rainfall total was 37mm, or 11.7%, below the 314.5 mm recorded in the previous driest year in 1902. The national average temperature was nearly 0.2°C above the previous warmest year in 2013.

Globally, 2019 is likely to be the second-warmest year, with global temperatures about 0.8 °C above the 1961–1990 average. It has been the warmest year without the influence of El Niño.

Across the year, Australia experienced many extreme events including flooding in Queensland and large hail in New South Wales. However, due to prolonged heat and drought, the year began and ended with fires burning across the Australian landscape.

Read more: ‘This crisis has been unfolding for years’: 4 photos of Australia from space, before and after the bushfires

The effect of the long dry

Bushfire activity for the 2018–19 season began in late November 2018, when fires burned along a 600km stretch of the central Queensland coast. Widespread fires later followed across Victoria and Tasmania throughout the summer.

Persistent drought and record temperatures were a major driver of the fire activity, and the context for 2019 lies in the past three years of drought.

The dry conditions steadily worsened over 2019, resulting in Australia’s driest year on record, with area-average rainfall of just 277.6mm (the 1961–1990 average is 465.2 mm).

Almost the entire continent experienced rainfall in the lowest 10th percentile over the year.

Record low rainfall affected the central and southern inland regions of the continent and the north-eastern Murray–Darling Basin straddling the NSW and Queensland border. Many weather stations over central parts of Australia received less than 30mm of rainfall for the year.

Every capital city recorded below average annual rainfall. For the first time, national rainfall was below average in every month.

Record heat dominates the nation

2019 was Australia’s warmest year on record, with the annual mean temperature 1.52°C above the 1961–1990 average, surpassing the previous record of 1.33°C above average in 2013.

January, February, March, April, July, October, November, and December were all amongst the ten warmest on record for Australian mean temperature for their respective months, with January and December exceeding their previous records by 0.98°C and 1.08°C respectively.

Maximum temperatures recorded an even larger departure from average of +2.09°C for the year. This is the first time the nation has seen an anomaly of more than 2 °C, and about half a degree warmer than the previous record in 2013.

The year brought the nation’s six hottest days on record peaking at 41.9°C (December 18), the hottest week 40.5 °C (week ending December 24), hottest month 38.6 °C (December 2019), and hottest season 36.9 °C (summer 2018–19).

The highest temperature for the year was 49.9 °C at Nullarbor (a new national December record) on December 19 and the coldest temperature was –12.0°C at Perisher Valley on June 20.

Keith West in southeast South Australia recorded a maximum 49.2°C on December 20, while Dover in far southern Tasmania saw 40.1°C on March 2, the furthest south such high temperatures have been observed in Australia.

Accumulating fire danger over 2019

The combination of prolonged record heat and drought led to record fire weather over large areas throughout the year, with destructive bushfires affecting all states, and multiple states at once in the final week of the year.

Many fires were difficult to contain in regions where drought has been severe, such as northern NSW and southeast Queensland, or where below average rainfall has been persistent, such as southeast Australia.

The Forest Fire Danger Index, a measure of fire weather severity, accumulated over the month of December was the highest on record for that month, and the highest for any month when averaged over the whole of Australia.

Record-high daily index values for December were recorded at the very end of December around Adelaide and the Yorke Peninsula in South Australia, East Gippsland in Victoria and the Monaro in NSW. These regions which experienced significant fire activity.

Don’t forget the floods

Amidst the dry, 2019 also included significant flooding across Queensland and the eastern Top End.

Heavy rain fell from January into early February, with damaging floods around Townsville and parts of the western Peninsula and Gulf Country.

Tropical cyclone Trevor brought further heavy rainfall in April in the eastern Northern Territory and Queensland. Floodwaters eventually reached Lake Eyre/Kati Thanda which, amidst severe local rainfall deficiencies in South Australia, experienced its most significant filling since 2010–11.

There was a notable absence of rainfall on Australia’s snow fields during winter and spring which meant less snow melt. Snow cover was generous, particularly at higher elevations.

What role did climate change play in 2019?

The climate each year reflects random variations in weather, slowly evolving natural climate drivers such as El Niño , and long-term trends through the influence of climate change.

A strong and long-lived positive Indian Ocean Dipole – another natural climate driver – affected Australia from May until the end of the year, and played a major role in suppressing rainfall and raising temperatures for much of the year.

Spring brought an unusual breakdown of the southern polar vortex which allowed westerly winds to affect mainland Australia. This reduced rainfall, raising temperature and contributing to the increased fire risk.

Climate change continues to cause long-term changes to Australia’s climate. Conditions in 2019 were consistent with trends of declining rainfall in parts of the south, worsening fire seasons and rising temperatures.

Read more: Australia can expect far more fire catastrophes. A proper disaster plan is worth paying for

– ref. Weather bureau says hottest, driest year on record led to extreme bushfire season – http://theconversation.com/weather-bureau-says-hottest-driest-year-on-record-led-to-extreme-bushfire-season-129447

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Geoff Hanmer, Adjunct Lecturer in Architecture, UNSW

In early December 2019, a Sheffield Shield cricket match between NSW and Queensland was played in bushfire smoke so thick that the ball was at times invisible to the spectators.

Since then, the rest of us have become far more aware of the hazards of bushfire smoke, and authorities have become more active in reminding us how dangerous it can be, especially during exercise. A standard piece of advice is to “spend more time indoors”.

But does it work?

Up until this year, with bushfire smoke lasting only a few days, it was good advice, especially for buildings that rely on recirculated and filtered mechanical ventilation complying with Australian Standard 1668 Part 2.

These buildings include shopping malls, cinemas, hospitals, larger offices and some of the buildings in some universities.

It’s fine in cinemas, for a while…

Unfortunately, if smoke is particularly thick or goes on for more than a few days, these systems get overwhelmed, which is why smoke detectors in many commercial and institutional buildings have been setting off fire alarms and why the National Gallery of Australia in Canberra was closed on Sunday and Monday.

Most houses or apartments are designed to be “naturally ventilated” under the National Construction Code, which means every habitable room has an openable window or a vent.

Closing the windows, vents and doors will reduce the “air change rate”, which is the number of times an hour the air in the room is replaced by outside air.

Less fine in homes

Regrettably, unless there is no wind, CSIRO research suggests most Australian houses are quite leaky by international standards, mainly because of leaky windows and doors.

Houses and apartments built before 1970 are the worst. Many have fixed ventilators just below the ceiling level, a hangover from regulations designed to ensure gas lighting did not cause asphyxiation.

These ventilators are now unnecessary and can be safely blocked off.

In normal times some leakage is not a bad thing, as it offers protection against internal air pollution from volatile organic compounds in furniture and building materials and cooking, smoking and heating.

But these are not normal times.

The length and severity of bushfire smoke appears to be unprecedented.

With bushfire smoke persisting for days or weeks, the standard advice to be “indoors” is less effective. While houses and apartments might be useful for keeping smoke out for a few days or so, they become less effective over time, depending on how leaky they are.

Take care

Before embarking on a campaign to seal leaks with draft stripping and duct tape, please ensure your that your range hood is vented directly to outside (preferably with an automatic flap) that if you smoke you do it outside, and that your furniture and fabrics are low in volatile organic compounds, which arechemicals that release vapor at room temperature.

If your house is sealed up, do not use a gas cooker without an externally vented range hood or use an unflued gas heater at any time.

Ensure your vacuum cleaner has a HEPA (high-efficiency particulate air) filter.

Remember duct tape or masking tape is likely to be very difficult to remove if you leave it on for more than a few days and may damage painted surfaces.

Air conditioners aren’t much help

Even if your house is well sealed, it’s likely the air in it will become similar in quality to the air outside over a period of several days. While the air change rate in your house might be low, it will not be zero.

A recirculating air conditioner, such as a split system, will make you cooler but most domestic air conditioning filters are not capable of removing the very small particles in bushfire smoke – the ones that most make it dangerous.

Evaporative air conditioners or window mounted air conditioners that draw air in from outside will actually make indoor conditions worse.

Some recirculating air purifier systems will remove bushfire smoke, but they can be expensive to buy and run.

Air purifiers can help, but they’re expensive

To be effective against bushfire smoke, the air purifier needs to be fitted with a HEPA filter.

The performance of many purifiers is less than stellar, but a CHOICE survey published just before Christmas is a useful starting point.

CHOICE is preparing a bigger test of more models which it will publish in March 2020.

It brought forward the test of six of them because of the fires.

Read more: From face masks to air purifiers: what actually works to protect us from bushfire smoke?

All six remove bushfire smoke particles with various degrees of efficiency, but their coverage area is limited. The Blueair 205 performed the best.

For people in an at-risk group, the use of an air purifier in a sealed-up house or apartment should help.

The only certain solution for someone suffering from smoke or concerned about its long-term impacts is to go to a building that has a recirculating HEPA filtered air conditioning system or move to a location where the air quality is better.

– ref. Our buildings aren’t made to keep out bushfire smoke. Here’s what you can do – http://theconversation.com/our-buildings-arent-made-to-keep-out-bushfire-smoke-heres-what-you-can-do-129367

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Gaunson, Senior Lecturer, RMIT University

Justin Kurzel’s latest film, True History of the Kelly Gang, marks the tenth screen version of the 1878-1880 Ned Kelly outbreak. It began in 1906 with Charles Tait’s The Story of the Kelly Gang.

Unlike other screen versions, the story of this Ned Kelly is not hagiographic, or romantic. He does not die a social martyr, in a battle of good against bad. He does not end a figure worthy of sorrow and mourning.

Earlier Kelly films were sympathetic to the character: hero worshiping Ned as the great egalitarian hero of the Australian bush. Kurzel’s film, based on the novel by Peter Carey, reads like a response to this framing.

Read more: The case for Ned Kelly’s Jerilderie Letter

As with The Snowtown Murders (2011), Kurzel considers how historical criminals are sentimentalised in a way contemporary murderers are not. In his latest film, he crafts a terrifying dystopia, forcing this same lens we place on the Snowtown killers onto Ned Kelly.

On an infertile, amoral Australian wasteland, Ned (played with vigour and vulnerability by both Orlando Schwerdt as a boy and George MacKay as an adult) speaks in a tough, ocker accent – not the customary Irish brogue.

He is not hirsute. No bushranger beard, nor facial hair whatsoever. He is not political. His stance against authority does not come from a wider benevolence to right the wrongs of authority. He is not a Robin Hood social bandit, robbing the rich to feed the poor.

Any romantic or gentlemanly tendencies are given little oxygen.

Ned is a damaged and unhinged violent, colonial, punk anarchist, with an anti-authoritarian ethos, ready to unleash his wrath against those who cross his path or bring threat to his family, especially his mother Ellen.

Essie Davis gives Ned’s Ma a wonderful depth and pathos in an often limiting and redundant role. Screenwriter Shaun Grant illuminates her in a way that has been lacking for this crucial character in previous screen depictions.

What is true?

The film opens with a sentence declaring, “Nothing you’re about to see is true”. The word “true” remains on the screen as the other letters fade, replaced by the film’s title. Any sense of “truth” here is to be considered as a mythical interpretation.

Kurzel removes any suggestion Ned led a hero’s life or died a champion of his people.

Here, there are no scenes of Ned robbing banks to fund the poor and impoverished: Kurzel suggests the money was used to line the gang’s own pockets.

There is no reference to the burning of the town’s mortgage bonds during the Jerilderie bank heist. There is no court case and blatant cover ups during the trial. There is no Judge Redmond Barry, deliciously played by Frank Thing in the 1970 film, openly baying for Ned’s blood, declaring his contempt to the jury.

Unlike other films – in particular, Gregor Jordan’s Ned Kelly (2003) – this one gives Kelly a clear choice and accountability in the decisions he makes.

Stringybark Creek

The most debated aspect of Ned’s outlawry is the Stringybark Creek massacre, where the Kelly Gang shot dead three police officers who were sent to track and ambush the brothers for the attempted murder of Constable Fitzpatrick.

Often this Stringybark moment is depicted as a “fair fight”, where the ambushed gang has no choice but to return fire. The sequence is remembered, often sympathetically, as an unfortunate but unavoidable moment.

In the 2003 film, Ned (Heath Ledger), crying over the shot and choking Sergeant Kennedy, retorts “Why didn’t you surrender? I wouldn’t have shot ya”. His final assassination bullet becomes an empathetic mercy killing.

In Kurzel’s film, Ned has the choice to circumnavigate the police party. His gang beg him to do so. Ignoring them he attacks, shooting to kill. Standing amongst the dead police officers, Ned severs Sergeant Kennedy’s ear as a souvenir (as opposed to looting his watch in the 2003 film), then howls to the sky.

The animalistic aspect of Ned punctuates the film; he often dances and howls following his moments of bloody combat.

The violence is fierce and shocking with the camera never shying from the spectacle. But in creating such a gloomy miasma, Kurzel offers a truer history to the sanitised and apologetic ways Ned is often lionized as Australia’s great bandit of social justice.

A quiet death

Captured during his last stand at Glenrowan and sentenced to death, Ned sits isolated in a barren and hollow Melbourne Gaol.

The spectacle of the hundreds of sympathisers outside the gaol gates is not shown or suggested to even exist. The pressmen who were permitted inside to witness and report the death are also unseen.

Save one visit from his incarcerated mother, Ned’s death is solitary and abandoned. There is no one to mourn or show him sympathy.

Kurzel’s Kelly is no sympathetic bandit. Nor is he worthy of compassion or forgiveness. Creating such a hopeless situation presents a deeper understanding of what drove Ned Kelly to his depths of sheer brutality and despair.

For that, Kurzel creates the most complex and complicated Kelly ever put on screen.

True History of the Kelly Gang is in cinemas for a limited release from January 9, and on Stan from January 26.

– ref. True History of the Kelly Gang review: an unheroic portrait of a violent, unhinged, colonial punk – http://theconversation.com/true-history-of-the-kelly-gang-review-an-unheroic-portrait-of-a-violent-unhinged-colonial-punk-128463

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Woinarski, Professor (conservation biology), Charles Darwin University

Images of desperate, singed koalas in blackened landscapes have come to symbolise the damage to nature this bushfire season. Such imagery has catalysed global concern, but the toll on biodiversity is much more pervasive.

Until the fires stop burning, we won’t know the full extent of the environmental damage. But these fires have significantly increased the extinction risk for many threatened species.

We estimate most of the range and population of between 20 and 100 threatened species will have been burnt. Such species include the long-footed potoroo, Kangaroo Island’s glossy black-cockatoo and the Spring midge orchid.

The fires are exceptional: way beyond normal in their extent, severity and timing. The human and property losses have been enormous. But nature has also suffered profoundly. We must urgently staunch and recover from the environmental losses, and do what it takes to avoid future catastrophes.

The fire and its aftermath

One estimate last month put the the number of birds, mammals (other than bats) and reptiles affected by fire in New South Wales alone at 480 million. The toll has risen since.

Most will have been killed by the fires themselves, or due to a lack of food and shelter in the aftermath.

Some animals survive the immediate fire, perhaps by hiding under rocks or in burrows. But the ferocity and speed of these fires mean most will have perished.

One might think birds and other fast-moving animals can easily escape fires. But smoke and strong winds can badly disorient them, and mass bird deaths in severe bushfires are common.

We saw this in the current fire crisis, when dead birds including rainbow lorikeets and yellow-tailed black-cockatoos washed up on the beach at Mallacoota in Victoria.

Damage lasts decades

Fire impacts are deeply felt in the longer-term. Many habitat features needed by wildlife, such as tree and log hollows, nectar-bearing shrubs and a deep ground layer of fallen leaves, may not develop for decades.

Populations of plant and animal species found only in relatively small areas, which substantially overlap fire-affected areas, will be worst hit. Given the fires are continuing, the precise extent of this problem is still unknown.

Read more: Animal response to a bushfire is astounding. These are the tricks they use to survive

We estimate most of the range and population of between 20 and 100 threatened species will have been burnt. The continued existence of such species was already tenuous. Their chances of survival are now much lower again.

For example, the long-footed potoroo exists in a very small range mostly in the forests of Victoria’s East Gippsland. It’s likely intense fires have burnt most of these areas.

On South Australia’s Kangaroo Island, one-third of which burned, there are serious concerns for the Kangaroo Island dunnart, an endangered small marsupial, and the endangered glossy black-cockatoo, whose last refuge was on the island. Both species have lost much of their habitat.

Many threatened plants are also affected: in NSW, fires around Batemans Bay have burnt some of the few sites known for the threatened Spring midge orchid.

This time, it’s different

Fire has long been a feature of Australian environments, and many species and vegetation types have adapted to fire. But the current fires are in many cases beyond the limits of such adaptation.

The fires are also burning environments that typically go unburnt for centuries, including at least the perimeter of World Heritage rainforests of the Lamington Plateau in south-eastern Queensland. In these environments, recovery – if at all – will be painfully slow.

Many Australian animal species, particularly threatened birds, favour long-unburnt vegetation because these provide more complex vegetation structure and hollows. Such habitat is fast disappearing.

The shortening intervals between fires are also pushing some ecosystems beyond their limits of resilience. Some iconic Alpine Ash forests of Kosciuszko have experienced four fires in 20 or 30 years.

Read more: ‘This crisis has been unfolding for years’: 4 photos of Australia from space, before and after the bushfires

This has reduced a grand wet forest ecosystem, rich in wildlife, to a dry scrub far more flammable than the original forest. Such ecosystem collapse is all but impossible to reverse.

Fires also compound the impacts of other threats. Feral cats and foxes hunt more effectively in burnt landscapes and will inexorably pick off wildlife that may have survived the fire.

What does this mean for conservation?

In a matter of weeks, the fires have subverted decades of dedicated conservation efforts for many threatened species. As one example, most of the 48,000 hectares of forest reserves in East Gippsland established last year in response to the rapid decline of greater gliders has been burnt. This has further endangered the species and makes the remaining unburnt areas ever more critical.

Beyond counting the wildlife casualties, responses are needed to help environmental recovery. Priorities may differ among species and regions, but here is a general list:

• quickly protect unburnt refuge patches in otherwise burnt landscapes

• increase control efforts for pest animals and weeds that would magnify the impacts of these fires on wildlife

• strategically establish captive breeding populations of some threatened animals and collect seeds of threatened plants

• provide nest boxes and in special circumstances plant vegetation providing critical food resources

• care for and rehabilitate injured wildlife and establish monitoring programs to chart a hoped-for recovery.

Some of these actions may be mere pinpricks in the extent of loss. But any useful action will make a small difference, and perhaps help alleviate the community’s profound sense of dismay at the damage wrought by these fires.

Governments, conservation groups and landholders must all play a role. Recovery actions should be thoughtfully coordinated, and form part of the broader social and economic post-fire recovery program.

Read more: In fact, there’s plenty we can do to make future fires less likely

Critically, we must also reduce the likelihood of similar catastrophes in future. Some have blamed the fires on national parks and a lack of hazard reduction burning. Skilful and fine-scale application of preventative burning does have merit. But such measures would not have stopped these fires, and the number of days suitable for such burning is diminishing.

Increasingly severe drought and extreme heat, associated with global warming, are the immediate causes of these wildfires and their ferocity. To prevent this fire-ravaged summer becoming the new normal, we must take drastic measures to tackle climate change.

– ref. A season in hell: bushfires push at least 20 threatened species closer to extinction – http://theconversation.com/a-season-in-hell-bushfires-push-at-least-20-threatened-species-closer-to-extinction-129533

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vanessa Kowalski, Painting Conservator, Grimwade Conservation Services, University of Melbourne

The devastation wrought by the Australian bushfires has been immense and, as the fires continue to burn, the final loss won’t be known for many months. While the impact on the environment, human and animal life is overwhelming, for many individuals the loss of personal items such as photographs, documents, artwork and personal treasures is significant.

Heirlooms and artworks are often cherished for the people, events and experiences they represent rather than their monetary value or cultural importance. They can be integral to understanding our personal history, culture and identity.

While damage to them can be heartbreaking, even a badly damaged family treasure may hold immeasurable personal significance.

For those threatened by bushfire, planning for the preservation of your treasured items can start now. Planning resources are available online. For those who have been affected by fire damage, you may still be able to salvage items.

There are three main factors to consider when thinking about the impact of bushfires on your personal treasures – smoke, heat, and water.

The most obvious damage from smoke is soiling. Soot, ash and other particulate matter are usually dark and greasy. When deposited on the surface of an object, colour and detail are obscured. Damage from high heat exposure can result in blistering, melting, warping, charring and partial or complete loss.

If water has been used to put out the fire, water related damage can be an issue. Water can cause shrinkage, distortion, discolouration, mould and partial or complete loss of original material.

The possible damage to your items will depend on the material types. Here are some tips for handling them.

Paintings

Paintings can be affected by all three factors.

• If an artwork is framed, it is recommended that you leave the frame in place. Exposure to high heat can soften the paint layer, which may cause it to stick to the frame. A specialist should remove the work from the frame.

• The particulate nature of smoke means that it can cause abrasion as the soot is wiped away. Get advice before undertaking any cleaning. Do not use water.

• Assess the surface for loose material (lifting paint, blistering). Take care when handling to ensure no loss of fragile material. Retain any loose elements in a Ziplock bag. These can be reattached later.

Paper documents, prints and photographs

Though potentially affected by all three factors, water damage can be the most severe for these items, with the risk of mould.

• Allow wet items to slowly air dry, indoors if possible. Increase indoor airflow with fans, open windows, air conditioners, and dehumidifiers. Do not use hair dryers, ovens, irons.

• Photo albums can stick together. Do not try to open them. Ask a conservator for advice.

• Dry paper documents and photos can be cleaned of soot with a vacuum and dry sponge.

Textiles (i.e. sporting memorabilia)

Textiles can be affected by all three factors.

• Handle with care, as they may be fragile.

• Low powered vacuum removal of soot may be possible if fabric is not weak (shedding).

Glass, metal and ceramic objects

These items can be affected by high temperatures and smoke. Heat can distort shape (melting) or alter surface finishes (i.e. glaze on pottery). Such damage is usually irreversible. Smoke damage can leave a darkened layer of soot on the surface.

• Care is need when removing soot to ensure abrasion of the surface doesn’t occur.

• Heat can make these objects brittle. Care is needed when handling.

• Use gloves when handling. Skin oils can damage the surface.

What else can you do

You may not be able to save everything, so focus on prioritising what is most important to you. Personal safety is the highest priority when entering damaged buildings. Wear protective clothing, footwear, goggles, gloves and masks to protect from hazardous material and possible mould spores.

Items may be more fragile than they look, so consider using something rigid to support them when lifting and transporting such as a piece of tray, pieces of cardboard, box, a plastic container or lid.

Retain any items that are recognisable, it may be possible to restore them.

The national conservation body, the Australian Institute for the Conservation of Cultural Materials, provides a number of useful fire recovery resources.

Details for accredited conservators can also be found through the AICCM website. A conservator will be able to provide advice on how to best approach the recovery and ongoing preservation of your heirlooms and artworks.

– ref. How to care for and recover personal items after bushfire – http://theconversation.com/how-to-care-for-and-recover-personal-items-after-bushfire-129356

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mahdokht Shaibani, Research Fellow, Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering, Monash University

Lithium-ion batteries have changed the world. Without the ability to store meaningful amounts of energy in a rechargeable, portable format we would have no smartphones or other personal electronic devices. The pioneers of the technology were awarded the 2019 Nobel Prize for chemistry.

But as society moves away from fossil fuels, we will need more radical new technologies for storing energy to support renewable electricity generation, electric vehicles and other needs.

Read more: Charged up: the history and development of batteries

One such technology could be lithium-sulfur batteries: they store considerably more energy than their lithium-ion cousins – in theory as much as six times the energy for a given weight. What’s more, they can be made from cheap materials that are readily available around the world.

Until now, lithium-sulfur batteries have been impractical. Their chemistry allows them to store so much energy that the battery physically breaks apart under the stress.

However, my colleagues and I have engineered a new design for these batteries which allows them to be charged and discharged hundreds of times without breaking down. We hope to have a commercial product ready in the next 2–4 years.

What’s so good about sulfur?

Lithium-ion batteries require minerals such as rare earths, nickel and cobalt to produce their positive electrodes. Supply of these metals is limited, prices are rising, and their mining often has great social and environmental costs.

Industry insiders have even predicted serious shortages of these key materials in the near future, possibly as early as 2022.

In contrast, sulfur is relatively common and cheap. Sulfur is the 16th most abundant element on Earth, and miners produce around 70 million tonnes of it each year. This makes it an ideal ingredient for batteries if we want them to be widely used.

What’s more, lithium-sulfur batteries rely on a different kind of chemical reaction which means their ability to store energy (known as “specific capacity”) is much greater than that of lithium-ion batteries.

Great capacity brings great stress

A person faced with a demanding job may feel stress if the demands exceed their ability to cope, resulting in a drop in productivity or performance. In much the same way, a battery electrode asked to store a lot of energy may be subjected to increased stress.

In a lithium-sulfur battery, energy is stored when positively charged lithium ions are absorbed by an electrode made of sulfur particles in a carbon matrix held together with a polymer binder. The high storage capacity means that the electrode swells up to almost double its size when fully charged.

The cycle of swelling and shrinking as the battery charges and discharges leads to a progressive loss of cohesion of particles and permanent distortion of the carbon matrix and the polymer binder.

The carbon matrix is a vital component of the battery that delivers electrons to the insulating sulfur, and the polymer glues the sulfur and carbon together. When they are distorted, the paths for electrons to move across the electrode (effectively the electrical wiring) are destroyed and the battery’s performance decays very quickly.

Giving particles some space to breathe

The conventional way of producing batteries creates a continuous dense network of binder across the bulk of the electrode, which doesn’t leave much free space for movement.

The conventional method works for lithium-ion batteries, but for sulfur we have had to develop a new technique.

To make sure our batteries would be easy and cheap to manufacture, we used the same material as a binder but processed it a little differently. The result is a web-like network of binder that holds particles together but also leaves plenty of space for material to expand.

These expansion-tolerant electrodes can efficiently accommodate cycling stresses, allowing the sulfur particles to live up to their full energy storage capacity.

Read more: A guide to deconstructing the battery hype cycle

When will we see working sulfur batteries?

My colleagues Mainak Majumder and Matthew Hill have long histories of translating lab-scale discoveries to practical industry applications, and our multidisciplinary team contains expertise from materials synthesis and functionalization, to design and prototyping, to device implementation in power grids and electric vehicles.

The other key ingredient in these batteries is of course lithium. Given that Australia is a leading global producer, we think it is a natural fit to make the batteries herea.

We hope to have a commercial product ready in the next 2–4 years. We are working with industry partners to scale up the breakthrough, and looking toward developing a manufacturing line for commercial-level production.

– ref. Batteries made with sulfur could be cheaper, greener and hold more energy – http://theconversation.com/batteries-made-with-sulfur-could-be-cheaper-greener-and-hold-more-energy-129135

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Walter, Professor of Political Science, Monash University

With the mega-fires consuming enormous tracts of country Australia, we are witnessing not only a national disaster, but also a failure of national leadership.

In a federal system, much responsibility for local services, and local emergencies, devolves to the states. But fires observe no boundaries.

It is a situation that was foreseen by experienced fire chiefs last April. Indeed, fire chiefs had made a case for more federal resources two years ago. But their calls for national leadership and national coordination were ignored.

Now that what they feared has come to pass, Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his team have handled matters poorly. They have been laggards in their response, reactive rather than proactive, more preoccupied with image management and partisan messaging than the job at hand. They have also responded inappropriately to criticism.

As a result, commentators have weighed in on Morrison’s lack of political authority, judgement and feel for public opinion – and whether the “miracle man” of the 2019 election can regain his footing.

How Morrison compares to other leaders

We can gain a surer sense of how this might play out by asking: how should effective national leadership operate in times like these?

Consider other examples of how leaders have reacted to similar situations. New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Adern’s ability to act immediately, reach out compassionately and connect inclusively in response to last year’s Christchurch massacre provides one measure against which Morrison fails to measure up.

Former PM John Howard’s brave pursuit of gun control, and willingness to face down opposition within his own ranks, after the Port Arthur massacre is another.

Morrison, confronted by distressed representatives of the small towns and regions who delivered his slim election victory, could not summon the humility to listen to their concerns. He walked away from questions from victims in Cobargo, and the outrage of these no longer “quiet Australians” attracted national and international attention.

Morrison’s reiteration of carbon reduction policies that are manifestly inadequate and his unwillingness to deal with the climate change realities presented to him by fire chiefs – but disputed by some Coalition colleagues – have also shown a lack fortitude.

Read more: Listen to your people Scott Morrison: the bushfires demand a climate policy reboot

A failure of collective action

More significant, though, is Morrison’s inability to facilitate collective action.

A national crisis in a federal state demands strong and decisive leadership. But it also requires collective action. This means a willingness to seek and listen to the best sources of advice and an ability to generate bipartisan consensus to confront an unusual challenge. It also means the capacity to orchestrate different levels of government, a variety of agencies, relevant NGOs, relevant branches of the public service, and in this case, the Australian Defence Force.

We know the Coalition, and Morrison himself, have been advised about the likelihood of worsening bushfires – and their inextricable link with global heating – for a considerable time.

Read more: Mr Morrison, I lost my home to bushfire. Your thoughts and prayers are not enough

Climate change could not be avoided in discussion of the ill-fated National Energy Guarantee. The risk factors of intensifying natural hazards, such as bushfires, cyclones and flooding, and the need for climate adaptation were front and centre in the Home Affairs Department’s National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework in 2018.

It beggars belief that Morrison’s departmental secretary until last August, Martin Parkinson, would not have given him an unvarnished evaluation of policy directions, given his lament for a decade of climate change inaction shortly after leaving office.

And, as noted, fire experts called for more federal resources two years ago and warned of what was to come last April.

Yet Morrison, far from the strong leader, has been too timorous to take the tough decisions needed, including confronting rancorous dissenters in his own ranks when the “miracle” win had given him the authority to do so.

Partisan attacks instead of real leadership

The failings are compounded by the tendency of the Coalition government to treat even issues related to national emergencies as “political”, when what matters on the ground is survival.

This is the antithesis of what is needed to promote collective action. Morrison has struggled throughout the crisis to put the national interest above party interests. Too often, image management has prevailed over action – until the more resolute state leaders, Gladys Berejiklian and Daniel Andrews, showed him up.

Read more: There’s no evidence ‘greenies’ block bushfire hazard reduction but here’s a controlled burn idea worth trying

Critics have been devalued as greenies who are said to have impeded necessary hazard reduction strategies. Fire authorities have debunked this canard, suggesting it to be a deflection from the real issue of the government’s failure to consult and its lack of preparedness.

It follows, then, that using the PM’s office to issue a social media post on the military mobilisation authorised by Morrison, with a Liberal Party header, was bound to be seen as a political act. The conventional route for such information has been via the national broadcaster, the ABC, to whom most turn for emergency alerts. But the ABC is seen as suspect by this government.

From the start of the crisis, the Morrison government disregarded the conventional means for crisis management: adequate consultation with state agencies, the expected channels for disseminating information, and drawing people together effectively to work jointly on what is a collective action problem.

Only at the end, after the significance of so many missteps had dawned, did Morrison open the cheque book for measures that might have been initiated well before the fire season.

One might hope the belated launch of a National Bushfire Recovery Agency will prove a learning experience, illuminating when troublesome colleagues within the Coalition should be firmly managed and partisanship must be put aside in the interests of collective action.

This was never a problem Morrison could expect to manage alone.

– ref. Scott Morrison’s biggest failure in the bushfire crisis: an inability to deliver collective action – http://theconversation.com/scott-morrisons-biggest-failure-in-the-bushfire-crisis-an-inability-to-deliver-collective-action-129437

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Leesa Bruggink, Senior Scientist, Enteric Viruses Laboratory, Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory

A cruise can be the perfect summer holiday. But cruise ships, with hundreds, even thousands of people in close quarters, can also be a hotbed of germs.

In particular, cruises are somewhat notorious for outbreaks of gastro. One study, which looked at close to 2,000 cruises docking in Sydney, found 5% of ships reported they’d had a gastro outbreak on board.

If you’re about to head off on a cruise, there’s no need to panic. There are some precautions you can take to give yourself the best chance of a happy, gastro-free holiday.

What causes gastro?

Viruses are the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis in Australia. Norovirus is the main culprit, causing an estimated 2.2 million cases of gastro each year.

Norovirus is usually transmitted from person-to-person via the faecal-oral route, where virus particles found in the stool of one person end up being swallowed by another person.

Extremely large numbers of virus particles are shed in faeces and vomit, yet a person only needs to ingest a very small number of virus particles to catch the infection.

Read more: Health Check: how long are you contagious with gastro?

Norovirus is hardy and can resist acid conditions (like those in the gut) and moderate temperatures (at which we wash clothes or reheat food, for example). Further, many chemicals used in cleaning products and hand sanitisers don’t effectively remove norovirus.

The main symptoms of gastro caused by norovirus are diarrhoea and vomiting. Symptoms normally only last for a short period (two to three days), and will stop on their own. The main risk is dehydration, which is of most concern for young children and the elderly.

Norovirus on cruise ships

Generally, a cruise ship will declare a “gastro outbreak” once 2-3% of passengers or crew are ill with gastro symptoms. So on a ship of 2,000 passengers, 40-60 people would need to be unwell before an outbreak is declared.

An Australian study found 5% of cruise ships that arrived in Sydney between 2007 and 2016 reported gastro outbreaks (98 out of 1967). Of the outbreaks with a known cause, 93% were from norovirus.

Reports pop up in the news from time to time when there’s a significant outbreak, like when the Sea Princess recorded 200 cases of gastro caused by norovirus in 2018.

Read more: Viruses aren’t all nasty – some can actually protect our health

How does it spread?

You can be infectious with norovirus before symptoms appear and even after they resolve, so a person might unknowingly bring norovirus onto a cruise with them.

On a cruise ship, norovirus is mainly spread directly from person to person. This is not surprising as many activities on a cruise involve mixing with other passengers in a reasonably closed space.

While a handshake is a normal greeting, it’s a fairly unsanitary practice. A recent study suggested a “fist-bump” should be promoted on cruises, while a modified version dubbed the “cruise-tap” (where only two knuckles are touched) could be even better.

The other way norovirus typically spreads is from touching contaminated surfaces. A person with norovirus may not wash their hands properly (or at all) after going to the toilet, leaving many invisible norovirus particles on their hands.

When this person touches surfaces (for example hand rails, buttons in the lift, or utensils at the buffet) they leave behind norovirus particles. Other people can then touch these surfaces and transfer the particles to their own hands. Then, if they put their hands to their mouth, they can give themselves the virus.

Read more: Health Check: should I use antibacterial hand sanitisers?

It’s rare to inhale norovirus particles from the air, but it can occur, usually if someone with the virus vomits nearby.

While norovirus can be found in food, cruise ships have strict food handling practices to prevent the spread of illnesses such as norovirus. Though this doesn’t mean it’s unheard of.

How to avoid catching norovirus

It’s impossible to completely eliminate the risk of catching norovirus, but there are some things you can do to minimise your risk:

• wash your hands well and frequently, especially before eating
• don’t rely on hand sanitisers (hand washing is always better)
• don’t share food, drinks or eating utensils
• don’t touch food with your hands
• reduce unnecessary contact with communal surfaces
• leave the area if someone vomits.

Read more: Prepare for a healthy holiday with this A-to-E guide

If you do get gastro symptoms on a cruise, it’s important you tell the medical personnel as soon as possible and follow their instructions.

You may be asked to stay in your cabin for a short period so as not to infect other passengers; just as you would wish another infected passenger not to spread the virus to you and your family.

The sooner the crew can identify a gastro case, the sooner they can start extra clean-up procedures and take further precautions to prevent an outbreak. Also, if you tell medical personnel, they may be able to provide medication and organise appropriate food to be delivered to your room.

Above all, to minimise the risk of gastro spoiling your cruise, wash your hands thoroughly and often.

– ref. Cruise ships can be floating petri dishes of gastro bugs. 6 ways to stay healthy at sea this summer – http://theconversation.com/cruise-ships-can-be-floating-petri-dishes-of-gastro-bugs-6-ways-to-stay-healthy-at-sea-this-summer-126351

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dale Nimmo, Associate professor/ARC DECRA fellow, Charles Sturt University

Have you ever wondered how our native wildlife manage to stay alive when an inferno is ripping through their homes, and afterwards when there is little to eat and nowhere to hide? The answer is adaptation and old-fashioned ingenuity.

Australia’s bushfire season is far from over, and the cost to wildlife has been epic. A sobering estimate has put the number of animals killed across eastern Australia at 480 million – and that’s a conservative figure.

But let’s look at some uplifting facts: how animals survive, and what challenges they overcome in the days and weeks after a fire.

Sensing fire

In 2018, a staff member at Audubon Zoo in the United States accidentally burned pastry, and noticed something peculiar. In nearby enclosures ten sleepy lizards, or Tiliqua rugosa, began pacing and rapidly flicking their tongues. But sleepy lizards in rooms unaffected by smoke remained burrowed and calm.

It was obvious the lizards sensed the smoke from the burnt pastry, probably through olfaction, or sense of smell (which is enhanced by tongue flicking). So the lizards were responding as they would to a bushfire.

In Australia, experiments have shown smoke also awakens Gould’s long-eared bats and fat-tailed dunnarts, enabling their escape from fire.

Read more: Bushfires have reshaped life on Earth before. They could do it again

Animals also recognise the distinct sounds of fire. Reed frogs flee towards cover and eastern-red bats wake from torpor when played the crackling sounds of fire.

Other species detect fire for different reasons. Fire beetles from the genus Melanophila depend on fire for reproduction, as their larvae develop in the wood of burned trees. They can detect fire chemicals at very low concentrations, as well as infrared radiation from fires.

The beetles can detect very distant fires; one study suggests individuals of some species identify a fire from 130km away.

Stay or go?

Once an animal becomes aware of an approaching fire, it’s decision time: stay or go?

It’s common to see large animals fleeing a fire, such as the kangaroos filmed hopping from a fire front in Monaro in New South Wales a few days ago. Kangaroos and wallabies make haste to dams and creek lines, sometimes even doubling back through a fire front to find safety in areas already burned.

Other animals prefer to stay put, seeking refuge in burrows or under rocks. Smaller animals will happily crash a wombat burrow if it means surviving a fire. Burrows buffer animals from the heat of fires, depending on their depth and nearby fuel loads.

From here, animals can repopulate the charred landscape as it recovers. For example, evidence suggests populations of the agile antechnius (a small carnivorous marsupial) and the bush rat recovered primarily from within the footprint of Victoria’s Black Saturday fires.

Avoiding fire is only half the battle

The hours, days, and weeks after fire bring a new set of challenges. Food resources will often be scarce, and in the barren landscape some animals, such as lizards and smaller mammals, are more visible to hungry predators.

Birds of prey arrive quickly at fires. Several species in northern Australia have been observed intentionally spreading fires by transporting burning sticks in their talons or beaks.

Read more: Making sense of Australia’s bushfire crisis means asking hard questions – and listening to the answers

One US study published in 2017 recorded a seven-fold increase in raptor activity during fire. They begin hunting as the fires burn, and hang around for weeks or months to capitalise on vulnerable prey.

In Australia, introduced predators can also be drawn to fires. Feral cats have been observed travelling up to 12.5km from their home ranges towards recently burned savanna ecosystems, potentially drawn by distant smoke plumes promising new prey.

A 2016 study found a native rodent was 21 times more likely to die in areas exposed to intense fire compared to unburned areas, mostly due to predation by feral cats. Red foxes have an affinity for burned areas too.

So should a little critter hunker down, or begin the hazardous search for a new home?

Staying put

Perhaps because of the risks of moving through an exposed landscape, several Australian mammals have learnt to minimise movement following fire. This might allow some mammal populations to recover from within a fire footprint.

Native mammals have been found hiding in beds of ash after fires.

Read more: Koalas are the face of Australian tourism. What now after the fires?

Short-beaked echidnas seek refuge and, when finding it, lower their body temperature and limit activity, so reducing the amount of food they need for energy. Despite their spiny defences, echidnas have been found more often in the stomachs of foxes following fire, so staying put in a little refuge is a good move.

Small marsupials such as brown and yellow-footed antechinus also use torpor to suppress their energy use and therefore the need to seek food.

Running the gauntlet

Not all wildlife have adapted to stay put after a fire, and moving in search of a safe haven might be the best option.

Animals might take short, information-gathering missions from their refuges into the fireground before embarking on a risky trek. They may, for example, spot a large, unburned tree that would make good habitat, and so move towards it. Without such cues to orient their movement, animals spend more time travelling, wasting precious energy reserves and increasing the risk of becoming predator food.

Survival is not assured

Australia’s animals have a long, impressive history of co-existing with fire. However, a recent study I led with 27 colleagues considered how relatively recent threats make things much harder for animals in fire-prone landscapes.

Some native species are not accustomed to dealing with red foxes and feral cats, and so might overlook cues that indicate their presence, and make the bad decision to move through a burned landscape when they should stay put.

Read more: Listen to your people Scott Morrison: the bushfires demand a climate policy reboot

When fires burn habitat in agricultural or urban landscapes, animals might encounter not just predators but vehicles, livestock and harmful chemicals.

And as this bushfire season has made brutally clear, climate change is increasing the scale and intensity of bushfires. This reduces the number of small refuges such as fallen logs, increases the distance animals must cover to find new habitat and leaves fewer cues to direct them to safer places.

We still have a lot to learn about how Australia’s wildlife detect and respond to fire. Filling in the knowledge gaps might lead to new ways of helping wildlife adapt to our rapidly changing world.

– ref. Animal response to a bushfire is astounding. These are the tricks they use to survive – http://theconversation.com/animal-response-to-a-bushfire-is-astounding-these-are-the-tricks-they-use-to-survive-129327

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

One of the dominant ideas buzzing around the internet is that there’s little we can do to escape the prospect of more frequent and worse bushfires – ever.

That’s because there’s little we can do to slow or reverse the change in the climate.

Australia accounts for just 1.3% of global emissions. That’s much more than you would expect on the basis of our share of world’s population, which is 0.33%. But even if we stopped greenhouse gas emissions as soon as we could and started sucking carbon back in (as would be possible with reafforestation) it’d make little difference to total global emissions, which is what matters – or so the argument goes.

But this argument ignores the huge out-of-proportion power we have to influence other countries.

There’s no better indicator of that than in Ross Garnaut’s new book Super-power: Australia’s low-carbon opportunity.

Read more: The bushfires are horrendous, but expect cyclones, floods and heatwaves too

We’re more important than we think

Garnaut conducted two climate change reviews for Australian governments, the first in 2008 for the state and Commonwealth governments, and the second in 2011 for the Gillard government.

In the second, he produced two projections of China’s emissions, based on what was known at the time.

One was “business as usual”, which showed continued very rapid increases. The other took into account China’s commitments at the just-completed 2010 United Nations Cancun climate change conference.

China’s annual emissions matter more than those of any other country – they account for 27% of the global total, which is a relatively new phenomenon.

The bulk of the industrial carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere was put there by the United States and the Soviet Union, who have been big emitters for much longer.

Egged on by the US Obama administration and by governments including Australia’s under Julia Gillard, China agreed at Cancun to slow its growth in emissions, and at the Paris talks in 2015 hardened this into a commitment to stabilise them by 2030.

The extraordinary graph

Garnaut’s 2011 projections showed growth moderating as a result of China’s commitment, which was at the time a cause for optimism.

When he returned to the numbers in 2019 to prepare his book, he was stunned. Egged on by the example of countries including the US and Australia, China had done far, far better than either “business as usual” or its Cancun commitments. Instead of continuing to grow rapidly, or less rapidly as China had said they would, they had almost stopped growing.

The graph, produced on page 29 of Garnaut’s book, is the most striking I have seen.

Since 2011, China’s emissions have been close to spirit-level flat. They climbed again only from 2017 when, under Trump in the US and various Coalition prime ministers in Australia, the moral pressure eased.

From the start of this century until 2011, China’s consumption of coal for electricity climbed at double-digit rates each year. From 2013 to 2016 (more than) every single bit of China’s extra electricity production came from non-emitting sources such as hydro, nuclear, wind and sun.

There are many potential explanations for the abrupt change. Pressure from nations including the US and Australia is only one.

What happened once could happen again

And there are many potential explanations for China’s return to form after Trump backslid on the Paris Agreement and Australia started quibbling about definitions. An easing of overseas pressure is only one.

But, however brief, the extraordinary pause gives us cause for hope.

Australia can matter, in part because it is hugely respected in international forums for its technical expertise in accounting for carbon emissions, and in part because of its special role as one of the world’s leading energy exporters.

Garnaut’s book is about something else – an enormous and lucrative opportunity for Australia to produce and export embedded energy sourced from wind and the sun at a cost and scale other nations won’t be able to match.

Read more: Australia could fall apart under climate change. But there’s a way to avoid it

Some of it can be used to convert water into hydrogen. That can be used to turn what would otherwise be an intermittent power supply into a continuous one. That enables around-the-clock production of the green steel, aluminium, and other zero-emission products Japan, Korea, the European Union and the United Kingdom are going to be demanding.

It’s a vision backed by Australia’s chief scientist.

It wouldn’t have been possible before. It has been made possible now by the extraordinary fall in the cost of solar and wind generation, and by something just as important – much lower global interest rates. Solar and wind generators cost money upfront but cost very little to operate. Interest rates are the cost of the money upfront.

At least three consortia are drawing up plans.

There’s not much to lose

There’s much that needs to be done, including establishing the right electricity transmission links. But Garnaut believes it can all be done within the government’s present emissions policy, helping it achieve its emission reduction targets along the way.

What’s relevant here is that moving to ultra-low emissions would do more. It could give us the kind of outsized international influence we are capable of. It could help us make an difference.

– ref. In fact, there’s plenty we can do to make future fires less likely – http://theconversation.com/in-fact-theres-plenty-we-can-do-to-make-future-fires-less-likely-129341

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Melissa Rogerson, Lecturer, School of Computing & Information Systems/Interaction Design Lab, University of Melbourne

Board games are booming. Article after article describes a “golden age” or “renaissance” of boardgaming.

In Germany, the home of modern boardgaming, the industry has grown by over 40% in the past five years; the four-day SPIEL trade fair this year saw 1,500 new board and card game releases, with 209,000 attendees from around the world.

What is it about board games that attracts people, and what emerging trends can we see in the latest releases?

Social, challenging, real

Four main elements make board games enjoyable for families and dedicated hobbyists alike.

Firstly, board games are social; they are played with other people. Together, players select a game, learn and interpret the rules, and experience the game. Even a mediocre game can be fun and memorable when you play it with the right group of people.

Secondly, boardgames provide an intellectual challenge, or an opportunity for strategic thinking. Understanding rules, finding an optimal placement for a piece, making a move that surprises your opponent – all of these are enormously satisfying. In many modern boardgames, luck becomes something that you mitigate rather than something that arbitrarily determines a winner.

Thirdly, board games are material – they are made of things; they have weight, substance, and even beauty.

Hobbyists speak of the tactile joy and sensual delight of moving physical game pieces, and of their appreciation for the detailed art on a game box or board. Some go to great lengths to protect their games from damage, even “sleeving” individual cards in plastic to protect them from greasy fingers, spills or wear.

Collectable Monopoly sets and other vintage games can fetch hundreds of thousands of dollars at auction.

Finally – and this helps to explain the enormous volume of new releases each year – board games provide variety. Beyond “the cult of the new” lurks a desire to have the right game for the right situation – whatever combination of gamers and strategic depth that might require.

The game’s theme matters, but so do the mechanisms of its play, as well as the game’s expected duration. Like authors, game designers such as Pandemic creator Matt Leacock attract a following of fans who enjoy the style of games that they produce.

‘Escape room’ experiences

To meet the demand for variety, designers look for new elements to offer in their games. “Legacy” style games – where players customise the game as they play it, writing on the board, and discarding rules or game components – create a one-off, individualised variant of a core game. They also invite a group to play together over several play sessions, modifying “their” game throughout the experience.

That can feel confronting to those of us who grew up protecting our games from “damage”.

If writing on game pieces is confronting, the Exit game series, by German couple Inka and Markus Brand is even more so.

These small, inexpensive games aim to replicate the experience of an “escape room” experience by providing the players with a series of puzzles to solve together, as a cooperative activity. To solve the puzzles, however, players must literally destroy the game – cutting up cards, tearing objects, folding and gluing and writing on them.

There’s a lot to be said for these low cost single-play games, which build communication and teamwork skills and – like real-world escape rooms – provide an opportunity for friends and families to work together to solve a common problem.

For those who would like to be able to retrace their steps, or to pass a game on to friends, the Unlock! game series takes a different look at the escape room genre by using an integrated app to provide clues and answers.

This ensures that the game itself is replayable, even if the players do not wish to revisit the same story.

Like Exit games, the Unlock! series offers creative opportunities to combine different objects as part of solving the puzzles, but adds occasional multimedia elements and uses the various properties of a smartphone as problem-solving tools.

Real boards, digital play

For people who enjoy solving puzzles, there are many other new games that combine digital technologies with the components and feel of a board game.

Chronicles of Crime puts players in the role of police detectives, who must travel to different locations to interview suspects, consult experts, and conduct searches.

Similarly, Detective sets players to solve a series of crimes. In this game, however, it is not enough to simply learn who committed a crime, it also must be proven by the chain of collected (and registered) evidence registered by players on a custom website.

These games reflect the broader development of a small group of games that use digital tools to add new features to board games.

One Night Ultimate Superheroes uses an app to run the game, taking on an administrative role that would otherwise have to be performed by a player.

The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth uses an app to speed setup, set game maps, resolve rules and track the players’ progress, streamlining and simplifying play.

Beasts of Balance – a simple, dexterity-based stacking game – uses an app to create a story world which brings the tabletop animal figures to life and encourages players to stack different figures to continue its narrative.

These digital tools add variety to the range of boardgames that are available. More than simple battery-enabled games like Operation, they provide new ways to interact with the game material and mechanisms while still supporting the sociability, intellectual challenge and tangibility so enjoyed by players.

Physical board games aren’t going anywhere, but apps add exciting new possibilities to this play space.

– ref. Board games are booming. Here’s why (and some holiday boredom busters) – http://theconversation.com/board-games-are-booming-heres-why-and-some-holiday-boredom-busters-128770

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Krystian Seibert, Industry Fellow, Centre for Social Impact, Swinburne University of Technology

The devastation of the Australian bushfires has generated an outpouring of generosity amongst Australians.

We have been giving directly to charities such as the Red Cross, the Salvation Army and others working on the ground to support survivors. Many of us have contributed to appeals such as Celeste Barber’s, which, at the time of writing, has raised A$42 million for the NSW Rural Fire Service.

Wealthy Australians, like the Packer, Gandel and Minogue families, have also made large commitments, as have many businesses.

The fact that so many of us have been reaching into our pockets during this difficult time is not surprising. Australia is the fourth most generous nation in the world, according to the most recent edition of the World Giving Index and emergency relief is a common cause to which we give.

But it’s worth thinking carefully about how to give, to ensure you’re not wasting your contribution or inadvertently making things worse.

Watch out for scammers

One thing to be mindful of during times like these, is that unfortunately some people may seek to prey on the generosity of others. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has issued a warning about fundraising scams associated with the bushfires.

If you aren’t sure about an organisation that you’ve been approached by, you can always check whether they’re a registered charity using the Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission’s online register.

It lists all charities registered in Australia, and details their operations, finance and governance.

Money usually trumps everything else

Generally, it’s best to give money. The organisations you give it to can then decide how to use it best.

We may be tempted to give goods like blankets or clothes, but organisations often get overwhelmed by donations of goods.

The idea of donating while also clearing out unused items at home may seem tempting but many organisations don’t have the resources to sort through donations. Often, the goods donated just aren’t fit for use.

Research by the federal and South Australian governments examined this problem, saying of the 2009 Victorian bushfires:

The Victorian Bushfires resulted in the donation of in excess of 40,000 pallets of goods from across Australia that took up more than 50,000 square metres of storage space. The costs for managing these donations i.e. three central warehouses, five regional distribution points, approximately 35 paid staff, material handling equipment and transport costs to distribute the material aid, has amounted to over 8 million dollars.

In addition, volunteer numbers reached 1,500 during the first three months provided through over 40 store fronts. Resources in the fire affected areas immediately after the event were severely stretched as a result of material aid arriving without warning and without adequate resources to sort, store, handle and distribute.

The report highlighted how this is a consistent problem during disasters, leading to the development of the National Guidelines for Managing Donated Goods. These guidelines reinforce the point that donating money is the preferred way to help out during a disaster.

If specific requests are made for certain goods, however, then you can respond by donating accordingly. The charity Givit acts as a broker that facilitates the donations of goods that meet the needs of charities and those they are seeking to help.

Always make sure that what you donate is of reasonable quality. It’s important not to use donation appeals an excuse to clean out items that probably should go in the rubbish or recycling bin.

Donations after the bushfires are also important

We’re facing a long and hot summer, with the prospect of ongoing bushfires. At some stage, they will subside and with them the appeals for donations will also end.

But it’s important to remember that even once the immediate crisis has passed, rebuilding after a disaster takes a long time and requires considerable resources.

Governments play an important part but there is also a role for philanthropy both large and small. For example, the Foundation for Rural and Regional Renewal has a Disaster Resilience and Recovery Fund which makes grants to local not-for-profit groups for community-led projects that address the most pressing needs that emerge 12-18 months after a disaster.

The bigger picture

Supporting the immediate response and rebuilding efforts is vital, but it’s also important to consider how as a nation we collectively address the factors which are increasing bushfire risk.

Climate change is increasing the risk that we will see more frequent and intense bushfires.

Charities provide vital support to those in need during times of crisis. But they also have an important advocacy role putting pressure on governments and businesses to change policies and practices.

Read more: Explainer: what are the limits to charities advancing political causes?

There are many environmental charities doing exactly this, to push Australia toward a more comprehensive response to climate change.

So it’s also worth thinking about how your donation can help support the policy change needed to address climate change and to mitigate the risks associated with it – including more bushfires.

– ref. How to donate to Australian bushfire relief: give money, watch for scams and think long term – http://theconversation.com/how-to-donate-to-australian-bushfire-relief-give-money-watch-for-scams-and-think-long-term-129445

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sunanda Creagh, Head of Digital Storytelling

Editor’s note: We pulled four before-and-after-images from NASA’s Worldview application, and asked bushfire researcher Grant Williamson to reflect on the story they tell. Here’s what he told us:

I’ve been studying fires for more than a decade. I use satellite data to try to understand the global and regional patterns in fire – what drives it and how it will shift in the future as our climate and land use patterns change.

When I look at these images I think: this is a crisis we have seen coming for years. It’s something I have been watching unfold.

Look at the sheer scale of it. Seeing this much fire in the landscape in such a broad area, seeing so much severe fire at once, this quantity and concentration of smoke – it is astonishing. I haven’t seen it like this before.

November 1, 2019 and January 3, 2020

In this comparison, you can see November last year versus now. In the present picture (on the right hand side) you can see a vast quantity of intense fires currently burning right down the eastern seaboard and a huge amount of smoke. It’s been blowing out across toward New Zealand for weeks now.

The scale of the current fires is definitely unusual. In a typical year, you might see, for example, a large fire in the alps (near Mount Kosciuszko) or in the Blue Mountains – but they would be isolated events.

What’s striking here is that there is so much going on at once. I have never seen it like this before.

Black Saturday smoke, Feburary 8, 2009 and the 2019-2020 bushfires smoke, January 3, 2020

This one is comparing two smoke events: one from Black Saturday and one from the current fires. In both cases, huge quantities of smoke was released. Both times, the sort of forest burning is very dense, there is a lot of wet eucalypt forest here which naturally has a high fuel load and that’s creating all that smoke. This type of forest only burns during extreme weather conditions.

Simply due to the scale of it and the fact that it’s been going on so long, I would say the current event is worse than Black Saturday, in terms of the quantity of smoke.

East Australia, 10 years ago vs today

In this image, we can the impact of drought. A decade ago, on the left hand side, it was clearly quite green along eastern Australia. That green shows there is a lot of growing vegetation there: pasture crops, grasses and a very wet environment.

If you compare that to the current year, on the right hand side, you can see it’s now extremely brown and extremely dry. There’s not much in the way of vegetation. That’s a result of drought and high temperatures.

Kangaroo Island, 2 months ago vs today

In this image, you can see Kangaroo Island two months ago on the left hand side, versus today.

The main thing I note here is the drying. The “before” image is so much greener than the “after” image. So there’s a real lack of rainfall that’s driving fire severity in this area. You can really see how much the island has dried out.

This has been an extraordinary year for climate and weather, and that’s manifesting now in these unprecedented bushfires. It’s not over yet.

But what’s important is the lessons we draw from this crisis and doing as much as we can to reduce the risk in future.

Grant Williamson is a Tasmania-based researcher with the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub.

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stuart Khan, Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering, UNSW

Bushfires pose serious short- and long-term impacts to public drinking water quality. They can damage water supply infrastructure and water catchments, impeding the treatment processes that normally make our water safe to drink.

Several areas in New South Wales and Victoria have already been issued with warnings about the quality of their drinking water.

Here’s what we know about the short- and long-term risks.

Read more: How to monitor the bushfires raging across Australia

Short-term risks

Bushfires can damage or disrupt water supply infrastructure as they burn. And the risks can persist after the fires are out.

A loss of power, for example, disables important water treatment processes such as chlorine disinfection, needed to kill microorganisms and make our water safe to drink.

Drinking water for the towns of Eden and Boydtown on the NSW south coast has been affected in this way over recent days. Residents have been advised to boil their water before drinking it and using it for cooking, teeth brushing, and so on.

Other towns including Cobargo and Bermagui received similar warnings on New Year’s Eve.

Read more: Disaster recovery from Australia’s fires will be a marathon, not a sprint

In some cases, untreated water, straight from a river supply, may be fed directly into drinking water systems. Water treatment plants are bypassed completely, due to damage, power loss, or an inability to keep pace with high volumes of water required for firefighting.

We’ve seen this in a number of southern NSW towns this week including Batlow, Adelong, Tumbarumba, and the southern region of Eurobodalla Council, stretching from Moruya to Tilba. Residents of these areas have also been urged to boil their drinking water.

Untreated river water, or river water which has not been properly disinfected with chlorine, is usually not safe for drinking in Australia. Various types of bacteria, as well as the parasites giardia and cryptosporidium, could be in such water.

Animals including cattle, birds and kangaroos can excrete these microorganisms into river water. Septic tanks and sewage treatment plants may also discharge effluents into waterways, adding harmful microorganisms.

Human infection with these microorganisms can cause a range of illnesses, including gastrointestinal diseases with symptoms of diarrhoea and vomiting.

Read more: What are parasites and how do they make us sick?

Long-term risks

Bushfires can damage drinking water catchments, which can lead to longer term threats to drinking water. Drinking water catchments are typically forested areas, and so are vulnerable to bushfire damage.

Severe impacts to waterways may not occur until after intense rainfall. Heavy rain can wash ash and eroded soil from the fires into waterways, affecting drinking water supplies downstream.

For example, bushfire ash contains nutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorous. Increased nutrient concentrations can stimulate the growth of cyanobacteria, commonly known as “blue-green algae”.

Cyanobacteria produce chemicals which may cause a range of water quality problems, including poor taste and odour. Some cyanobacteria can produce toxic chemicals, requiring very careful management to protect treated drinking water.

Many water treatment plants include filtration processes to filter small suspended particles from the water. But an increase in suspended particles, like that which we see after bushfires, would challenge most filtration plants. The suspended particles would be removed, but they would clog the filters, requiring them to be more frequently pulled from normal operation and cleaned.

This cleaning, or backwashing, is a normal part of the treatment process. But if more time must be spent backwashing, that’s less time the filters are working to produce drinking water. And if the rate of drinking water filtration is slowed and fails to keep pace with demand, authorities may place limitations on water use.

Read more: The bushfires are horrendous, but expect cyclones, floods and heatwaves too

Boiling water isn’t always enough

In order to reduce the risk of gastrointestinal and other illnesses, water suppliers and health departments may issue a boil water alert, as we’ve seen in the past week. Bringing water to a “rolling boil” can reliably kill most of the microorganisms of concern.

In cases where water may be contaminated with chemical substances rather than microorganisms, boiling is usually not effective. So where there’s a risk of chemical contamination, public health messages are usually “do not drink tap water”. This means bottled water only.

Such “do not drink” alerts were issued this week following bushfire impacts to water treatment plants supplying the Victorian towns of Buchan and Omeo.

Read more: How does poor air quality from bushfire smoke affect our health?

Impacts to catchments from bushfires and subsequent erosion can have long-lasting effects, potentially worsening untreated drinking water quality for many years, even decades.

Following these bushfires, many water treatment plant operators and catchment managers will need to adapt to changed conditions and brace for more extreme weather events in the future.

– ref. Bushfires threaten drinking water safety. The consequences could last for decades – http://theconversation.com/bushfires-threaten-drinking-water-safety-the-consequences-could-last-for-decades-129353

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Leanda Denise Mason, Associate Lecturer, Curtin University

Australia is famous for its supposedly scary spiders. While the sight of a spider may cause some people to shudder, they are a vital part of nature. Hostile reactions are harming conservation efforts – especially when people kill spiders unnecessarily.

Populations of many invertebrate species, including certain spiders, are highly vulnerable. Some species have become extinct due to habitat loss and degradation.

Read more: Spiders are threatened by climate change – and even the biggest arachnophobes should be worried

In dramatic efforts to avoid or kill a spider, people have reportedly crashed their cars, set a house on fire, and even caused such a commotion that police showed up.

A pathological fear of spiders, known as arachnophobia, is of course, a legitimate condition. But in reality, we have little to fear. Read on to find out why you should love, not loathe, our eight-legged arachnid friends.

1. Spiders haven’t killed anyone in Australia for 40 years

The last confirmed fatal spider bite in Australia occurred in 1979.

Only a few species have venom that can kill humans: some mouse spiders (Missulena species), Sydney Funnel-webs (Atrax species) and some of their close relatives. Antivenom for redbacks (Latrodectus hasseltii) was introduced in 1956, and for funnel-webs in 1980. However, redback venom is no longer considered life-threatening.

2. Spiders save us from the world’s deadliest animal

Spiders mostly eat insects, which helps control their populations. Their webs – especially big, intricate ones like our orb weavers’ – are particularly adept at catching small flying insects such as mosquitos. Worldwide, mosquito-borne viruses kill more humans than any other animal.

3. They can live to an impressive age

The world’s oldest recorded spider was a 43- year-old female trapdoor spider (Gaius villosus) that lived near Perth, Western Australia. Tragically a wasp sting, not old age, killed her.

4. Spider silk is amazing

Spider silk is the strongest, most flexible natural biomaterial known to man. It has historically been used to make bandages, and UK researchers have worked out how to load silk bandages with antibiotics. Webs of the golden orb spider, common throughout Australia, are strong enough to catch bats and birds, and a cloak was once woven entirely from their silk.

5. Their venom could save our life

The University of Queensland is using spider venom to develop non-addictive pain-killers. The venom rapidly immobilises prey by targeting its nervous system – an ability that can act as a painkiller in humans.

Read more: Curious Kids: why do spiders need so many eyes but we only need two?

The venom from a Fraser Island funnel web contains a molecule that delays the effects of stroke on the brain. Researchers are investigating whether it could be administered by paramedics to protect a stroke victim on the way to hospital.

Funnel-web venom is also being used to create targeted pesticides which are harmless to birds and mammals.

6. They could compete at Little Athletics

The Australian huntsman (Family Sparassidae) can run 40 body lengths per second, about eight times faster than the fastest human runners.

Other spiders have great throwing skills. To catch moths, the bolas spider spins a thread with a sticky glob of silk on the end. The glob mimics the scent of a female moth. When a male moth comes to investigate, the spider throws the glob at the moth, catches it then reels it in.

7. Spiders want to be left alone

Spiders are not aggressive and will either try to run away from people, or defend themselves. Many are exceptional at hiding or camouflaging themselves, in the hope we don’t even see them.

Wrap-around spiders (Dolophones species) flatten themselves around branches to hide during the day, then come out to build webs at night.

Bird-dropping spiders hide by looking like, yes, bird-droppings.

The Western Australian shield-back trapdoor spiders (Idiosoma species) uses its unusually hard abdomen to “plug” its tunnel when a predator enters, creating an impenetrable shield.

Trapdoor spiders live in burrows with a silken lid that shuts tight, then gets covered in dirt or leaf litter.

8. Spiders have very unusual sex lives

It’s well known that some female spiders eat their partners during or after sex. But male Tasmanian cave spiders have evolved to avoid this fate. They use kinks in their legs to pin the female’s fangs apart while they mate, which can prevent her from killing him. These spiders are so fascinating, they are the subject of a documentary, Sixteen Legs

More generally, male spiders use their “hands” (called pedipalps), to transfer sperm into female spider “vaginas” (called epigynes).

During courtship, Australian male peacock spiders display their colourful abdomen to the female by using some pretty impressive dance moves.

9. Spiders are great mothers

Some female spiders produce milk for their young, or even sacrifice themselves as food. All spider mothers protect their babies, called spiderlings. However trapdoor spider mothers allow spiderlings to live in the home burrow for nine months, before they dig their own burrows nearby.

10. Humans need spiders to survive

It is important to remember that spiders and other invertebrates – animals without spines – make up 98% of animal species. They are vital to the functioning of ecosystems; without them, the remaining 2% of vertebrates, including humans, could not survive.

OK, OK. I care about spiders. Now what?

Spread the word to your friends and family that spiders should be cared for.

By all means, teach children that certain spiders require caution, and should be admired from a safe distance. But if your child has an irrational fear of spiders, address this as early as possible. Encourage positive interest in the spider world by exposing children to books and movies with spiders as the lead protagonists, such as Charlotte’s Web and Spiderman.

Research has shown that adults can overcome fear of spiders through frequent exposure. So be sure to share images of spiders with your arachnaphobic friends!

Caitlin Henderson contributed to this article.

Read more: Curious Kids: What are spider webs made from and how strong are they?

– ref. Don’t like spiders? Here are 10 reasons to change your mind – http://theconversation.com/dont-like-spiders-here-are-10-reasons-to-change-your-mind-126433

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shahram Akbarzadeh, Professor of Middle East & Central Asian Politics, Deputy Director (International), Alfred Deakin Research Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, Deakin University

US President Donald Trump has not held back on threatening Iran after the targeted killing of General Qassem Soleimani, a veteran of the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s and a key player in expanding Iran’s links with armed groups across Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

In addition to extreme sanctions, Trump’s latest threat includes hitting 52 military and cultural targets in Iran. As might be expected, the Iranian leadership has doubled down on its anti-US rhetoric and promises of retribution. Soleimani was too important to the regime to let this slide.

As the commander of the Quds Force in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Soleimani was in direct contact with Hezbollah in Lebanon. He mobilised the militant group to defend Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad against US-backed rebels and armed Islamist groups. Soleimani also visited Moscow in 2016 to make a case for, and coordinate, Russia’s military involvement in Syria.

Read more: How likely is conflict between the US and Iran?

Soleimani made frequent trips to Iraq to bolster the Kurdish and later the Shia militia push-backs against the Islamic State. The recapture of Mosul from the Islamic State in 2016 by the US-backed Iraqi army and the Shia Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) was greeted in Iran with joy.

Soleimani was celebrated as a national hero. The Iranian regime praised him for serving the national security doctrine of offensive defence: defeating ISIS beyond Iran’s borders.

Direct military confrontation is unlikely

It makes sense, then, that the Iranian regime feels compelled to respond to Soleimani’s assassination. Iran cannot afford to let its national hero be slain without retribution. When Soleimani’s daughter asked President Hassan Rouhani, “Who will avenge my father’s blood?”, his response was swift: “We will all take revenge”.

But what can Iran do? The Iranian leadership has been woefully aware of its limitations in case of any direct confrontation with the United States. Iran’s armed forces, including the zealot IRGC, are no match for US firepower. Direct military confrontation will amount to suicide, and the Iranian leadership is in no hurry to act crazy, no matter how deeply hurt it may feel.

This fits the pattern of the cat-and-mouse game the IRGC has been playing with the US navy in the Persian Gulf to disrupt oil shipments without raising the stakes too high. Iran threatened on many occasions to block the Strait of Hormuz and seriously hurt the global economy, but never carried through as it could have prompted a military retaliation from the US.

Iran, likewise, had a calibrated response to the re-imposition of crippling US sanctions following Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal: a combination of harsh rhetoric and mild action. Tehran sought to look tough but not too threatening to invite a US reprisal.

Read more: Infographic: what is the conflict between the US and Iran about and how is Australia now involved?

But the targeted killing of a celebrated Iranian commander is a game changer, meaning the Iranian response will likely be stronger.

Given the perils of direct confrontation for the Iranian regime, the most likely recourse may be a mobilisation of Iran’s proxy affiliations to exact revenge on the United States, most likely in Iraq.

In fact, Iran does not really need to instruct Shia militia in Iraq to hurt the United States. The Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) also lost its second-in-command (Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis) in the same drone attack that killed Soleimani.

Rocket attacks in recent days on the Green Zone in Baghdad are likely to be just the prelude to a major PMU action against US assets in Iraq.

The turning tide against the US military presence, evident in the Iraqi parliament’s resolution to expel foreign forces, could embolden PMU to step up its operations even further. This would be disastrous for the war-ravaged country, and there is no guarantee that Iran would not be embroiled in the conflict.

Diplomatic responses also have limited appeal

Beyond the military options, Iran also has two immediate diplomatic options. The first is to completely revoke the nuclear deal and resume its nuclear program.

With the US withdrawal from the deal in 2018 – and the Trump administration’s subsequent imposition of a “maximum pressure” strategy on Tehran – Iran already has no incentive to observe its commitments.

And Iran was edging away from the deal even before the latest escalation of tensions. After Soleimani’s assassination, Rouhani said Iran will recommence uranium enrichment and stockpiles, measures that the nuclear deal was designed to seriously limit and monitor.

The Iranian leadership claims it is still in compliance with the general rules set by the International Atomic Energy Agency to govern nuclear activity for civilian use. This move is designed to drive a wedge between the United States and its European allies. By addressing European leaders directly, Rouhani reiterated that Iran would be prepared to return to the deal, but only if Europe, Russia and China could offer a way around US sanctions. This scenario looks extremely unlikely.

Read more: Iran’s leader is losing his grasp on power. Does this mean diplomacy is doomed?

Second, Iran could take its case to the United Nations and seek justice through international law.

In the wake of the Soleimani killing, the Iranian ambassador to the UN lambasted the United States for “an illegitimate action” and “an act of aggression”.

This move could resonate with the majority opinion in the United Nations, as well as many US lawmakers and international law experts, who have questioned Trump’s justification for assassinating Soleimani to prevent an imminent threat against the United States.

But going through the UN would be a lengthy and ineffective process as the United States has made a habit of dismissing or ignoring UN resolutions it does not like.

In addition, it is difficult to imagine that any non-military option would be enough to satisfy Iran’s impulse for revenge.

– ref. Iran vows revenge for Soleimani’s killing, but here’s why it won’t seek direct confrontation with the US – http://theconversation.com/iran-vows-revenge-for-soleimanis-killing-but-heres-why-it-wont-seek-direct-confrontation-with-the-us-129440

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jason Alexandra, PhD candidate, RMIT University

The current bushfire crisis provides compelling evidence of the dangers posed by extremely dry landscapes and hot, windy conditions.

While there’s no evidence “greenies” precipitated the current crisis by blocking hazard reduction, it is clear that we need to explore new ways to manage fuel loads to reduce the severity of bushfires.

It is worth considering how local, self organised, place-based, community groups could be supported to conduct various types of strategic hazard reduction, including targeted grazing and prescribed or fuel reduction burning.

Using the Landcare model for bushfire hazard reduction

One model we could look to is Landcare, which has enjoyed 30 years of bipartisan support. Funded and supported by governments, local, semi-autonomous, self-directed groups aim to take a sustainable approach to land management through on-ground projects such as habitat restoration and improving biodiversity.

This model could be applied to prescribed or fuel reduction burning, carried out by local “GreenFire” groups. This would involve:

1. Developing and resourcing GreenFire groups.

These would be the equivalent of district Landcare groups, but focused on hazard reduction and fuel management. These groups could be encouraged to learn patch-burning techniques, and other landscape scale management practices, such as creating green firebreaks of non-flammable species.

If well coordinated, these techniques would reduce fire hazards across private and public lands. These groups could be an extension of existing Landcare groups combined with volunteer firefighting services. They would aim to increase capacity for fuel management at the landscape scale and provide opportunities for more people to learn skills and share knowledge, with and from professionals working in government forest and national parks agencies.

These kinds of activities, mostly in the cooler, green seasons would enhance the capacity of communities to prepare for future fires, and increase the capacity of traditional fire fighting to suppress dangerous fires.

2. These groups could work under the mentorship and authorisation of fuel management/reduction officers.

These could be public officers such as district fire officers or senior staff of public land management agencies who have had a long involvement in prescribed burning and fuel management on public lands.

3. In each district, fuel reduction periods could be officially declared. With this declaration state governments would assume liability for fuel reduction fires, so long as they had the appropriate planning, approvals and resourcing (for example, they were undertaken by trained groups and certified by appropriate officials).

4. Fuel reduction burning should employ Indigenous fire rangers, drawing on Indigenous knowledge and celebrating Indigenous patchwork burning practices.

Involving Indigenous communities in such a program would combine traditional and modern burning practices. Blending cultural and modern burning techniques has proven successful in major savanna burning programs reducing carbon emissions from late season fires in Northern Australia.

Prevention is better than firefighting

Land use planning and management play key roles in shaping exposure to bushfire risks, and are therefore central to disaster mitigation.

Under conditions that favour wildfires, no amount of firefighting effort can protect all lives and property. Victoria’s Black Saturday Royal Commission – a comprehensive inquiry into the fires in which 173 people died, more than 5000 were injured and more than 2,000 houses destroyed – found that under extreme conditions, wildfires overwhelm the capacity of emergency services.

South-eastern Australia has long experience of intense fires, yet our population has spread into the bushlands of coastal hinterlands and urban fringes. This has occurred despite scientists warning for more than 30 years that wildfire risks were intensifying due to climate change.

There are no silver bullet fixes to reduce bushfires hazards. But pragmatic approaches based on extensive research have improved disaster responses, supported calls for stricter planning and building codes and quantified the benefits of strategically reducing fuel loads.

We must try creative new ways to reduce risk

Since the Stretton Royal Commission into the 1939 Black Friday bushfires, more than 16 major inquiries have called for greater use of integrated approaches to land use planning and management to minimise disaster risks.

With climate change increasing bushfire impacts and intensities, we need to build capacity in local communities to manage fire hazard. This requires education, training and adapting policies and landscape management practices to devise plans that suit local conditions.

Countless generations of Indigenous people have effectively managed fire risk through skillful burning. It is time to learn how to burn well and to share the techniques and methods that can enable us live well in our flammable landscape.

– ref. There’s no evidence ‘greenies’ block bushfire hazard reduction but here’s a controlled burn idea worth trying – http://theconversation.com/theres-no-evidence-greenies-block-bushfire-hazard-reduction-but-heres-a-controlled-burn-idea-worth-trying-129350

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kevin Markwell, Professor in Tourism, Southern Cross University

In 1936, The Evening News in Rockhampton wrote:

The time has arrived when Australians must decide whether or not they will accept responsibility for the perpetuation of the koala […]

It seems extraordinary that this animal which is so greatly admired, not only by overseas visitors, but by Australians, is being allowed to suffer extinction.

The preservation of the koala was not talked about so much in environmentalist terms: instead, the koala was seen as a crucial icon of Australian identity and tourism.

The earliest picture postcard featuring a koala I have found was postmarked 1903, and it has been a mainstay of tourism advertising ever since.

In the latest ad from Tourism Australia, the koala has been recruited, once again, to market Australia, starring alongside Kylie Minogue, chilling in a graceful eucalyptus on Sydney Harbour.

But amid Australia’s ongoing bush fire crisis, airing of the digital ad has been “paused”.

Up to 30% of the koala population from the NSW mid-north coast is expected to be lost in the fires, alongside 50% of the koalas on Kangaroo Island – the last remaining wild population not infected by deadly chlamydia.

Eighty four years on from the Evening News’ story, we are still talking about the possible extinction of koalas, our national tourism icon.

The creation of an icon

Koalas were exhibited at Melbourne Zoo from 1861 and at Taronga Zoo from 1914. But at the same time, koalas were hunted ruthlessly for fur throughout much of the 19th century. This practice only came to a halt at the end of the 1920s.

By the 1930s, three koala-themed wildlife parks – the Koala Park in Pennant Hills, Sydney, Lone Pine Koala Park on the Brisbane River and the Adelaide Snake Park and Koala Farm – had opened for business.

1933 saw the publication of Dorothy Wall’s Blinky Bill. Zoologist Ellis Troughton’s book Furred Animals of Australia (1931) and natural historian Charles Barrett, with Koala: The Story of the Native Bear (1937), also influenced public attitudes towards the native animal.

In 1934, the Sydney Morning Herald called the koala “Australia’s national pet”.

Perhaps most famously, it was the star of a Qantas advertising campaign from 1967 to 1992.

The loss of a tourism icon

A 2014 study suggests koala tourism could now be worth as much as A$3.2 billion to the Australian economy and account for up to 30,000 jobs.

In 2020, Australia has 68 zoos and wildlife parks exhibiting just under 900 koalas. A photograph with a koala is a must-have souvenir for many international tourists.

But it is impossible to look at Kylie hanging out with her koala mates without bringing to mind the shocking images of badly burned koalas and other wildlife as the devastating wild fires destroy millions of hectares of bushland habitat.

The plump, relaxed, pampered koalas in the Tourism Australia ad are far removed from the horrific realities of fire. These catastrophic fires have compounded the threatening processes that already affect koala populations: habitat destruction and fragmentation, disease, car accidents and dog attack.

Recent research has shown koalas are also vulnerable to climate change through changes in the nutritional status of eucalyptus leaves, excessively hot temperatures and these canopy-destroying wildfires.

Read more: Koalas are feeling the heat, and we need to make some tough choices to save our furry friends

A life beyond extinction?

Australians have clearly shown they are willing to take action to protect the animal, with the GoFundMe campaign to raise funds for the Port Macquarie Koala Hospital raising almost A$2 million.

The outpouring of emotion and financial support reflects the strong connection that Australians feel for the koala, formed out of the interplay of the animal’s baby-like features and its multitude of representations in popular culture, including, of course, tourism marketing.

Sadly, it is more than likely the koala will go on serving the national interest through its role in tourism even if it was to tragically go extinct in the wild.

Most koala tourism is based on experiences with captive koalas. And extinction hasn’t been a problem elsewhere: Tasmanian Tourism uses a stylised image of the thylacine in its logo.

The long term survival of the koala ultimately rests with governments and their policies on forest clearing, fire management and climate change.

If future tourists to Australia are to experience the koala in the wild, it is imperative that governments act now to strengthen the protection of the species and most crucially, its habitat.

– ref. Koalas are the face of Australian tourism. What now after the fires? – http://theconversation.com/koalas-are-the-face-of-australian-tourism-what-now-after-the-fires-129347

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shane Keating, Senior Lecturer in Mathematics and Oceanography, UNSW

It’s a cliché, but Aussies love the beach. And little wonder: with 36,000 kilometres of coastline, Australia is blessed with some of the best beaches in the world.

Around 20 million Australians live within 50 kilometres of the coast. As summer temperatures soar, we flock to the ocean to splash, swim, surf, paddle, and plunge in the waves.

But where do those waves come from? How do they form, and why do they break? As it turns out, what we see at the shore is just the last few moments of an epic journey.

Read more: Hidden women of history: Isabel Letham, daring Australian surfing pioneer

Great waves from tiny ripples grow

The waves we see crashing on the beach can begin their lives tens of thousands of kilometres away. Surface waves, as they are known, are born when the wind blows over the ocean, amplifying small ripples and transferring momentum from the atmosphere to the water.

The height of the wave depends on how long the wind is blowing and the distance – or fetch – over which it blows. The largest waves are created by distant storms, which churn up the surface of the ocean and radiate waves outwards like ripples in a pond.

Surface waves don’t move the water itself very far – each water molecule travels forward and back in a circle a few meters across and ends up back at its starting point.

As the wave crest rises, water molecules gather gravitational potential energy that is released as kinetic energy when the water descends into the trough of the wave. This energy is then passed onto the next crest in a see-saw of kinetic and potential energy that can propagate across an entire ocean basin.

The mounting wave

Once a wave leaves the open ocean and approaches land, the sea floor begins to exert its influence. Surface waves transmit their energy more slowly in shallow water than in deep water. This causes energy to pile up near the shore. Waves start to shoal, becoming taller, steeper, and more closely spaced.

Once a wave grows too steep to hold together, it breaks. Breaking waves come in different varieties.

Spilling breakers, which crumble gently into white water, occur when the sea floor rises relatively slowly.

By contrast, plunging breakers – the classic rolling waves favoured by surfers – form when the sea floor rises sharply, particularly near reefs and rocky headlands.

Finally, surging waves occur when the shore is almost vertical. These waves don’t produce breakers but rather a rhythmic rise and fall of the sea surface.

Bend it like bathymetry

The shape or topography of the sea floor – called bathymetry – can have remarkable effects on breaking waves. If the depth of the sea floor changes parallel to the coast, incoming waves will refract or bend so their crests line up with the shoreline.

The effect can be clearly seen near headlands: waves close to the headland move slowly because the water is shallow, while waves further out move more quickly. This causes waves to curl around the headland like a marching band rounding a corner.

Bathymetry is also responsible for some of the biggest waves on Earth. Famous big wave surf spots like Mavericks in Northern California and Navarre in Portugal benefit from undersea canyons that refract incoming waves and focus them into monsters. The Navarre wave originates from an undersea canyon almost 5 kilometres deep to produce waves as tall as an eight-storey building.

Read more: Don’t get sucked in by the rip this summer

Don’t risk the rip

The story of a wave doesn’t end when it breaks, however. Breaking waves push water towards the shore, raising the water level. This water will try to flow back offshore via the lowest point along the beach. The result is a rip current: a swift, narrow current that flows out to sea.

Rip currents are Australia’s number one coastal hazard, responsible for more fatalities per year than shark attacks, bush fires, floods, and cyclones combined. Inexperienced swimmers caught in a rip can panic and try to swim against the current, which is a dangerous recipe for exhaustion. Yet most Australians are unable to identify a rip current, and two-thirds of those who think they can get it wrong.

To spot a rip, look for a gap in the waves, a dark channel, or ripples surrounded by smoother water. The safest thing to do is to stick to patrolled beaches and swim between the flags. If you do find yourself caught in a rip, Surf Lifesaving Australia advises you to stay calm and conserve your energy.

Rip currents are usually quite narrow, so swim at right angles to the current until you are outside the rip. If you are too tired to swim, tread water and let yourself go with the flow until the rip weakens and you can signal for help.

Above all, if you are unsure, don’t risk the rip. Sit back and enjoy the waves from a safe distance instead.

– ref. The story of a wave: from wind-blown ripples to breaking on the beach – http://theconversation.com/the-story-of-a-wave-from-wind-blown-ripples-to-breaking-on-the-beach-128458

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Mackey, Professor of Ophthalmology, University of Western Australia

The number of people with myopia, aka short-sightedness (difficulty seeing objects in the distance), has increased dramatically in recent years in various regions of the world.

For example, in many cities in China more than 90% of university students are living with myopia. In pure numbers this is one of the largest epidemics humanity has even seen, far greater than the obesity epidemic.

The myopia boom was first noted in 1980s in the cities of East Asian countries such as Korea, Taiwan and Singapore. The cities of China followed soon afterwards, and a similar trend is being noted in Europe.

From blur to blindness

For most people, myopia is merely an inconvenience requiring correction with glasses, contact lenses or refractive surgery.

Notably, myopia is associated with an increased risk of blindness from retinal detachment, glaucoma and myopic macular degeneration. Risk of blindness increased with worsening severity of myopia and this is a major public health concern.

Researchers and parents of children developing myopia have looked for explanations and the latest “suspect” is the use of personal electronic devices.

But the myopia epidemic in Asia preceded the release of smart phones by many years (the first iPhone was released in 2007).

New technologies – televisions in the 1960s, computers in the 1980s, laptops in the 1990s, and currently smartphones and tablets – have all been blamed for causing myopia.

As far back as the 1600s, the German astronomer Johannes Kepler, who first identified concave lenses could correct myopia, is said to have attributed his short-sightedness to all his years of “intense study of astronomical tables and so forth”. But he might well have blamed Gutenberg’s printed books (the latest technology at the time).

What’s to blame for myopia?

So what have researchers found so far?

Having parents with myopia increases a child’s risk for myopia. But children can mimic their parents’ potentially myopia-inducing lifestyle – such as near work that requires focusing on close-up objects and studying a lot inside – as well as inherit their genes.

After years of debate over whether myopia is due to genetic or environmental factors (with reading and screen use suggested), we now know it is an interaction of both genes and environment.

Myopia does not result from a single gene defect; more than 160 interacting genes contribute to the risk of myopia.

What are the environmental triggers that would explain an epidemic?

Many studies have looked at possible risk factors but only a few have come out consistently around the world: near work, years in education and lack of time spent outdoors in daylight.

Untangling the interactions is a challenge because these factors are interrelated, with children who study more spending less time outdoors.

Don’t just blame the technology

Despite decades of parents warning children, no study has shown that sitting too close to the television causes myopia.

In the past two years, five papers (1, 2, 3, 4 and 5) have looked at myopia and personal electronic devices. Some, but not all, have found an association between the amount of screen use and myopia. But this does not mean screen time itself causes myopia.

Instead of reading from books, children are reading more from screens and changing the nature of their near work. Rising rates of myopia are related to near work behaviours, rather than screen use in particular.

Children are also changing the way they use screens. The simple idea that screen use occurs indoors was completely overthrown by the Pokémon Go craze, as gamers headed outdoors with their smartphones in search of virtual treats.

In addition, we now have children using virtual reality goggles to play games or even study.

Limits on screen time

Australian guidelines recommend:

• children under two years of age have no screen time
• two to five-year-old children have a maximum of one hour a day
• five to 17-year-old children be limited to two hours of recreational screen time per day.

There is no rigorous scientific basis for these time limits in relation to visual health. But a recent study showed a large percentage of children exceeded these time limits.

Potential health issues relating to screen time are diverse. Sleep, posture, level of physical activity and behavioural issues are additional reasons for concern.

Just go outside more

Unlike previous generations, most children today experience a lot of screen time. But we don’t have consistent findings for use of television, computers, tablets, smart phones or even virtual reality goggles themselves as the main cause of myopia.

We clearly need some very large, well-conducted studies, where we directly measure the use of screen time across a wide range of health issues from infancy to young adulthood.

Some cities in China are trialling scheduled time spent outdoors at school to see if it prevents or decreases the progression of myopia in children.

In Australia, we need tailored messages to encourage kids to spend more time outdoors if they are inside reading or using screens too much.

– ref. Short-sightedness in kids was rising long before they took to the screens – http://theconversation.com/short-sightedness-in-kids-was-rising-long-before-they-took-to-the-screens-122530

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dale Dominey-Howes, Professor of Hazards and Disaster Risk Sciences, University of Sydney

Australia is in the midst of inconceivably bad bushfires. The death toll is rising, thousands of buildings have been destroyed and whole communities displaced. This scale is like nothing before, and our national response must be like nothing that has come before.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Sunday somewhat acknowledged the need for unprecedented action. He took the extraordinary step of calling up 3,000 Australian Defence Force reservists and mobilising navy ships and military bases to aid the emergency response. This has never before happened in Australia at this scale.

Read more: Disaster recovery from Australia’s fires will be a marathon, not a sprint

But it’s not enough. As this horrific summer of disaster continues to unfold in coming weeks, we clearly need to overhaul our emergency management plan with a workforce that’s large, nationally mobile, fully funded, and paid – rather than using under-resourced volunteers.

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction says weather and climate related disasters have more than doubled over the last 40 years.

Although expensive, the cost of not acting on disaster risk, planning and preparation will be greatly outstripped by the cost of future climate and weather catastrophes.

Our disaster management system needs upgrading

The states and territories are primarily responsible for disaster preparedness and response. Typically, the federal government has no direct responsibility, but lends a hand when asked through a variety of programs, policies and initiatives.

This may have worked in the past. But with ever larger and more complex disasters, these arrangements are no longer fit for purpose.

Our national emergency management workforce is largely made up of volunteers, who are stretched to the bone, exhausted and some say, under-resourced.

What’s more, experts led by former Fire and Rescue NSW commissioner Greg Mullins have called for significant changes in Australia’s disaster management preparedness and response. They’ve signalled the need for new resources, policies and processes to tackle more frequent and complex disasters.

Read more: Climate change is bringing a new world of bushfires

We’ve also seen how consultation and collaboration between the Commonwealth and states are not working smoothly.

NSW Rural Fire Service Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons only learned that Defence reservists would be deployed when it was reported in the media. And it wasn’t immediately clear how new reservists would be integrated into existing response activities.

Finding a bipartisan way forward

The decade-long ideological battle between the left and right of Australian politics has paralysed climate policy development. This cannot continue.

Well-funded disaster preparedness and response inevitably builds resilience to climate change and extreme weather events like bushfires. This is something both sides of politics agree on – in fact, it was noted in the federal government’s own recent report profiling our vulnerability to disasters and climate change.

Aside from needing bipartisanship, an overhaul of Australia’s disaster management will require money. While we’re lucky to have a dedicated, paid and exceptional set of state and territory disaster and emergency management agencies such as the NSW Rural Fire Service, most heavy lifting is done by agency volunteers.

But with fire seasons starting earlier and lasting longer, we can no longer rely for months at a time on volunteers who must also work, pay their bills and feed their families.

We need a larger, paid, trained, professional emergency management workforce. I reject claims that such a workforce would stand idle most of the year. Severe weather seasons are starting earlier and lasting longer, so these professionals will be busy.

The workforce could be divided in to areas of expertise to tackle specific disaster types, and focus on different aspects of the disaster cycle such as prevention and preparation. These continue year-round.

Alternatively, volunteers could be compensated through direct payments for lost income, tax offsets for volunteers and their employers, or rent or mortgage assistance.

Read more: The bushfires are horrendous, but expect cyclones, floods and heatwaves too

What’s more, a new national disaster management approach must intersect with state and local governments to help reduce disaster risk.

These might include contributing to land-use zoning plans, building design and standards for construction in at-risk areas, or building partnerships with the private sector.

Funding disaster preparedness

All this will cost money. Australia must accept that taxpayers will pay for future disaster preparedness, response and recovery. We need a bucket of cash for when disasters strike. Scott Morrison yesterday announced A$2 billion for recovery, but disaster funds should be ongoing.

This would be no different to the national Medical Future Research Fund – a A$20 billion fund to focus on solving nationally important medical issues funded through savings from the health budget.

There are several ways the money could be gathered. Commonwealth, state and territory governments could rethink their insistence on achieving budget surpluses, and instead spend money on a disaster fund. A “disaster levy” could be applied to household rates bills, a tax on carbon introduced, or planned tax cuts for middle and high income earners abandoned.

The public could also contribute to the fund directly. The ABC’s recent Australia Talks survey found on average, Australians would be willing to chip in A$200 each per year to pay for adaptation to climate change. If every Australian contributed, there’s another A$5 billion per year for the fund.

Read more: ‘I can still picture the faces’: Black Saturday firefighters want you to listen to them, not call them ‘heroes’

Future disaster management will require Australia to step up. It means making hard choices about what we want the future to be like, how we’ll pay for that, and what level of risk we are prepared to tolerate. It also means demanding that our leaders deliver meaningful climate change adaptation, including disaster planning.

– ref. Australia can expect far more fire catastrophes. A proper disaster plan is worth paying for – http://theconversation.com/australia-can-expect-far-more-fire-catastrophes-a-proper-disaster-plan-is-worth-paying-for-129326

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chloe Lucas, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Geography and Spatial Sciences, University of Tasmania

Australia is in the midst of a bushfire crisis that will affect local communities for years, if not permanently, due to a national crisis of underinsurance.

Already more than 1,500 homes have been destroyed – with months still to go in the bushfire season. Compare this to 2009, when Victoria’s “Black Saturday” fires claimed more than 2,000 homes in February, or 1983, when the “Ash Wednesday” fires destroyed about 2,400 homes in Victoria and South Australia, also in February.

Read more: Disaster recovery from Australia’s fires will be a marathon, not a sprint

The 2020 fire season could end up surpassing these tragedies, despite the lessons learned and improvements in preparedness.

One lesson not really learned, though, is that home insurance is rarely sufficient to enable recovery. The evidence is many people losing their homes will find themselves unable to rebuild, due to lack of insurance.

We know this from interviews with those affected by the October 2013 Blue Mountains bushfires (in which almost 200 homes were destroyed). Despite past disasters, more than 65% of households affected were underinsured.

Research published by the Victorian government in 2017, meanwhile, estimated just 46% Victorian households have enough insurance to recover from a disaster, with 28% underinsured and 26% having no insurance.

The consequences aren’t just personal. They potentially harm local communities permanently, as those unable to rebuild move away. Communities lose the vital knowledge and social networks that make them resilient to disaster.

Read more: Insurance is unaffordable for some, but it’s middle Australia that is underinsured

Miscalculating rebuilding costs

All too often the disaster of having your home and possessions razed by fire is followed by the disaster of realising by how much you are underinsured.

As researchers into the impact of fires, we are interested why people find themselves underinsured. Our research, which includes interviewing those who have have lost their homes, shows it is complicated, and not necessarily due to negligence.

For example, a woman who lost her home in Kinglake, northeast of Melbourne, in the 2009 fires, told us how her insurance calculations turned out to bear no resemblance to the actual cost of rebuilding.

“You think okay, this is what I paid for the property,” she said. “I think we had about $550,000 on the house, and the contents was maybe $120,000.” It was on these estimates that she and her partner took out insurance. She told us:

You think sure, yeah, I can rebuild my life with that much money. But nowhere near. Not even close. We wound up with a $700,000 mortgage at the end of rebuilding.

An extra mortgage

A common issue is that people insure based on their home’s market value. But rebuilding is often more expensive.

For one thing there’s the need to comply with new building codes, which have been improved to ensure buildings take into account their potential exposure to bushfire. This is likely to increase costs by 20% or more, but is rarely made clear to insurance customers.

Construction costs also often spike following disasters, due to extra demand for building services and materials.

A further contributing factor is that banks can claim insurance payments to pay off mortgages, meaning the only way to rebuild is by taking out another mortgage.

“People who owned houses, any money that was owing, everything was taken back to the bank before they could do anything else,” said a former shop owner from Whittlesea, (about 30km west of Kinglake and also severely hit by the 2009 fires).

This meant, once banks were paid, people had nothing left to restart.

She told us:

People came into the shop and cried on my shoulder, and I cried with them. I helped them all I could there. That’s probably why we lost the business, because how can you ask people to pay when they’ve got nothing?

Undermining social cohesion

In rural areas there is often a shortage of rental properties. Insurance companies generally only cover rent for 12 months, which is not enough time to rebuild. For families forced to relocate, moving back can feel disruptive to their recovery.

Underinsurance significantly increases the chances those who lose their homes will move away and never return – hampering social recovery and resilience. Residents that cannot afford to rebuild will sell their property, with “tree changers” the most likely buyers.

Communities not only lose residents with local knowledge and important skills but also social cohesion. Research in both Australia and the United States suggested this can leave those communities less prepared for future disasters.

This is because a sense of community is vital to individuals’ willingness and ability to prepare for and act in a threat situation. A confidence that others will weigh in to help in turn increases people’s confidence and ability to prepare and act.

In Whittlesea, for example, residents reported a change in their sense of community cohesion after the Black Saturday fires. “The newer people coming in,” one interviewee told us, “aren’t invested like the older people are in the community.”

Australia is one of the few wealthy countries that heavily relies on insurance markets for recovery from disasters. But the evidence suggests this is an increasingly fraught strategy, particularly when rural communities also have to cope with the reality of more intense and frequent extreme weather events.

If communities are to recover from bushfires, the nation cannot put its trust in individual insurance policies. What’s required is national policy reform to ensure effective disaster preparedness and recovery for all.

– ref. A crisis of underinsurance threatens to scar rural Australia permanently – http://theconversation.com/a-crisis-of-underinsurance-threatens-to-scar-rural-australia-permanently-129343

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Willsteed, Senior lecturer, Queensland University of Technology

The first tune I ever wrote – a proper tune, with an intro, verses, choruses and a middle bit – was a surfing instrumental.

I have always been a pretty crappy singer, and I figured that the guitar could sing for me (I know, I know). But like anyone who grew up in the 60s this genre made sense to me. It was both fun and familiar, and there was room for storytelling in the sound of the guitar.

Surf music was born with the release of Dick Dale’s first single Let’s Go Trippin’. Dale was born in Boston, but arrived in California as a teenager and started surfing. He played a left-handed guitar, but with the strings upside down, that is with the low strings at the bottom and the high strings at the top. This quite odd arrangement made for an idiosyncratic sound, all the physical movements up-ended; the dynamics reversed, the emphasis offset.

Dale first played Let’s Go Trippin’ in 1960, and it was a wild and crazy sound, the birth of a genre.

The fact that he has a Lebanese background informed his style. The frenetic oud and tarabaki playing that drives Lebanese pop music of the 50s seeped in, along with his love of drummer Gene Krupa’s snappy snare.

It didn’t take long for Dale’s influence to spread. Not really very surfy, but in 1962 Monty Norman’s James Bond theme for Dr. No was played by the tremendous John Barry Seven and is a great example of the foregrounding of the edgy guitar sound that Dale perfected.

The first of the teen surf movies, Beach Party, was released a year later: tales of teen idiocy, with Annette Funicello and Frankie Avalon at the helm, centred around summer, surf, music and endless partying.

At least a dozen of these films were made, formulaic and sanitised, with established comedians like Paul Lynde and Don Rickles, promoting a romanticised image of surf culture.

Although the movies were built on beach party guitar bands, the music charts and radio waves of the time were also home to beautiful, evocative guitar instrumentals. The Ventures from Washington state had their first hit with Walk, Don’t Run in 1960.

They played mostly covers, but developed a new sound – pounding toms and unison picking guitars – releasing many twangy gems including covers of Joe Meek’s Telstar, The Champs’ Tequila, as well as two of the touchstone tracks of the surf music genre in Pipeline and Wipeout.

In the UK, The Shadows were exploring similar terrain, with hits like Apache, Wonderful Land and Atlantis. They took a more lyrical approach, stepping away from the blues-based patterns of the US guitar artists, and sliding in minor chords and more complex structures.

But the thing that really sets The Shadows apart is the sound: the guitar amp producing washes of spacious reverb, as well as the watery bubbling of the vibrato; the guitar tremolo stretching the strings into tonal waves, and the orchestral layering on some of the grander tracks.

Santo and Johnny’s Sleepwalk is a lesson in subtle mood-making with its lap steel guitar evoking the distant Hawaiian islands.

It appears in the repertoire of both The Ventures and The Shadows, inspires another deeply influential beauty, Albatross, by Fleetwood Mac, with Peter Green on guitar, and echoes through the decades to the wonderful work of Richard Hawley.

Australia in the 70s and beyond – great beaches, great surfers, great music

The beaches south of Sydney produced Australia’s most notable surf band in 1961. The Atlantics had their genetic roots in Greece and Eastern Europe, an immigration success story years before Vanda and Young.

Their biggest hit, Bombora, is a surf rock classic and was an international sensation in the earliest days of the genre.

They had another big hit, The Crusher, and then in 1964 released War of The Worlds, awash with echoes and distortion and moodiness. It was innovative and brave, but ultimately spelled their demise as a surf band.

As the 60s hit their twilight, and the wave of political enlightenment from Prague and Paris reached our shores, the blonde, post-war beach party was dragged out by the undertow. The Summer of Love, then Woodstock came and went, leaving the surfing subculture chilling with a joint in the back of the panel van rather than wildly dancing around the bonfire with a bottle of Mateus Rosé.

The twangy instrumentals, with their snappy drums and lightning guitar lines stretched and grew, as synthesizers and production techniques replaced the earlier simple arrangements. The sound changed and became spacious, echoing the endless drift of the waves, and the slow drama of the incoming storm.

In 1970, Morning of the Earth was released, becoming the first film soundtrack to earn a gold record in Australia. It not only has tracks by singer-songwriters and pop stars but also by the acid-surf instrumentalists Tamam Shud. It became an enormously influential film, capturing the idyllic nature of the surfing culture.

But the twang hadn’t gone. The sound of the surf guitar is core to the music of The Cramps and The Pixies. It surfaced in Ricky Wilson’s great guitar lines for The B52s.

It rang clear as a bell in 80s Australian bands like The Sunnyboys, Surfside Six, Radio Birdman, The Riptides, and Mental As Anything.

The Cruel Sea rose in Sydney in 1987 from the ashes of Sekret Sekret, settling around the ebb and flow of guitarist Danny Rumour and guitarist/organist James Cruickshank and the rhythmic undertow of Ken Gormley and Jim Elliot.

Instrumental rock became groovy again. Eventually, Tex Perkins joined and they became award-winning mainstays in the rise of 90s festival culture.

More recently Headland, who began in 2014 playing live original instrumentals to gloriously evocative Super 8 footage of big surf at Lennox Head in the 70s, have restored faith in the power of the instrumental for the post millennium. Surf music lives!

I only ever played my little surf instrumental a few times and then that version of our band exploded – Lindy Morrison left to join the Go-Betweens and we entered a more angular and fierce phase. But last year, in a performance at the State Library about Brisbane posters and how they help to tell stories about our past, our culture and our place in the world, I played it again.

It felt odd to be doing it on my own, but it also felt both funny and appropriate. The tune had the twang of a simpler time. As does this little gem from Brian Wilson, who believes that smiles can fix the problems of the world.

– ref. Surf music – in praise of strings, sand and the endless swell – http://theconversation.com/surf-music-in-praise-of-strings-sand-and-the-endless-swell-128914

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rod Keenan, Professor, University of Melbourne

As monstrous blazes overwhelm Australia’s south-east, the need for a national bushfire policy has never been more urgent. Active land management such as hazard-reduction burning and forest thinning must lie at the core of any such policy.

Done well, controlled burning limits a bushfire’s spread and makes suppression easier, by reducing the amount of flammable material. Clearing or thinning vegetation on roadsides and other areas also helps maintain fuel breaks, allowing firefighters access to forests in an emergency.

Read more: As bushfire and holiday seasons converge, it may be time to say goodbye to the typical Australian summer holiday

As former fire chiefs recently pointed out, of all factors driving a fire’s severity – temperature, wind speed, topography, fuel moisture and fuel load – fuel load is the only one humans can influence.

The royal commission into Victoria’s Black Saturday bushfires identified serious shortcomings in land and fuel management, primarily the domain of the states. Ten years ago I also called for a national approach to bushfires, including vegetation management.

Relatively little has changed since. It is as though Australia suffers collective and institutional amnesia when it comes to bushfire preparedness. But the threat will only escalate. Australia must have a sustained commitment to better land management.

The three pillars of dealing with bushfires

Bushfire management comprises three planks: preparation, response and recovery.

Preparation involves managing fuel loads and vegetation, maintaining access to tracks and fire breaks, planning fire response and ensuring sufficient human capacity and resources to respond to worst-case scenarios.

Response involves deploying aircraft, fire trucks and firefighting personnel, and recovery requires social, financial and institutional support.

Read more: Disaster recovery from Australia’s fires will be a marathon, not a sprint

The federal government mostly focuses on bushfire response and recovery, which now falls under the Department of Home Affairs and the responsible Minister for Natural Disaster and Emergency Management, David Littleproud.

After major fire events in the 2000s, the Commonwealth committed significant resources to response. This included contributing to the cost of more fire-fighting planes and helicopters, and research funding.

But what about fire preparation?

Prescribed burning is considered a key element of bushfire preparation. While there is some debate over its effect on a fire’s impact, the Victorian bushfire royal commission concluded fuel modification at a sufficient scale can reduce the impact of even high-intensity fires.

Other management actions include thinning dense forest areas, reducing the shrub layer mechanically where burning is not possible and maintaining fire breaks. As the climate changes, we may consider changing the tree species mix.

The newly merged Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment is the federal agency with most interest in land management. However other agencies such as the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources share some responsibilities.

Federal funding for land management deals with single issues such as weeds, feral animals, threatened species or water quality. Funding is often piecemeal, doled out to government bodies or community groups with little coordination. As federal programs are implemented, states often withdraw funding.

Former NSW Fire and Rescue commissioner Greg Mullins and other experts have warned fuel reduction burning is “constrained by a shortage of resources in some states and territories”, as well as by warmer, drier weather which reduces the number of days burning can be undertaken.

At state level, since the major fires of the 2000s, funding for fire management has increased and coordination between fire response and land management agencies has improved.

However, the focus of the two groups remains divided, which can thwart progress. Fire services prioritise protecting lives and property once fires are going, while forest and land management agencies focus on reducing fire risk, and must consider a wider range of natural and community values.

In a rapidly changing climate, land management requires a long-term adaptive strategy, underpinned by sound analysis and research, supporting laws and policies, with sufficient funding and human resources. Bipartisan political support and leadership continuity is needed to sustain it.

A national approach

State agencies cannot carry the full financial burden for fire preparedness. With fire events happening in almost all states and territories, it is clear we need a national approach.

The federal government collects most tax revenue and should contribute a greater share of the costs of prescribed burning, maintaining access, fire detection, and rapid firefighting response.

Federal spending on land management can be better integrated to engage and protect communities, conserve biodiversity, maintain water quality, manage forest carbon emissions and improve forest resilience to future fires. Recent federal investments in savannah burning in northern Australia are a good example of this.

A federal bureau of bushfire and land management could support national policy and coordinate investment, including monitoring and reporting on forest and land condition. State agencies, local authorities and private landowners could continue to provide management to meet national targets.

Commitment to public education is also critical. Many people do not understand the need for appropriate human interventions, such as prescribed burning or thinning, to protect the forests we all enjoy. We must also learn from traditional owners about how to live in our country and manage land with fire.

In December, the federal government initiated an inquiry into the efficacy of vegetation and land management and bushfires. This inquiry needs to be expanded, avoiding the simplified debates of the past, and bring together all parties to identify solutions.

Read more: Making sense of Australia’s bushfire crisis means asking hard questions – and listening to the answers

As one of the most urbanised countries on Earth, there are few votes to be gained in more spending on rural land management. Hazard reduction is a sometimes risky, labour-intensive measure, and tensions between reducing fuel loads and conserving the environment must be managed.

However after the grief, anger and recriminations from these fires have passed, it’s time for an urgent national rethink – and the Morrison government must lead the way.

– ref. There’s only one way to make bushfires less powerful: take out the stuff that burns – http://theconversation.com/theres-only-one-way-to-make-bushfires-less-powerful-take-out-the-stuff-that-burns-129323

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mike Lee, Professor in Evolutionary Biology (jointly appointed with South Australian Museum), Flinders University

The catastrophic bushfires raging across much of Australia have not only taken a huge human and economic toll, but also delivered heavy blows to biodiversity and ecosystem function.

Already, scientists are warning of catastrophic extinctions of animals and plants.

Humans have seldom if ever seen fires like these, but we do know that wildfires have driven mass extinctions and reshaped life on Earth at least once before – when the asteroid strike that led to the demise of the dinosaurs sparked deadly global firestorms.

Australian biodiversity

Australia is one of only 17 “megadiverse” countries. Much of our species richness is concentrated in areas torched by the current bushfires.

While some mammals and birds face elevated extinction risk, things will be even worse for small, less mobile invertebrates (which make up the bulk of animal biodiversity).

For example, the Gondwana Rainforests of New South Wales and Queensland have been badly affected by the fires. These World Heritage listed forests are home to a rich diversity of insects and a huge range of land snails, some restricted to tiny patches.

The bushfires have been rightly described as unprecedented, and extinctions can play out over an extended period. The full gravity of the impending catastrophe is not yet clear.

Read more: Bushfires are pushing species towards extinction

Fire has driven extinctions before

There have been greater burnings in the deep past, as we can see from the fossil record. They provide strong and disturbing evidence of how fire drove widespread extinctions that completely reshaped life on Earth.

Around 66 million years ago, a mass die-off called the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event famously put an end to the reign of dinosaurs (sparing only birds). This event erased 75% of the planet’s species.

Scientists agree these extinctions were primarily caused by an asteroid about 10 kilometres wide crashing into present-day Mexico, blasting a huge crater the size of Tasmania.

A nuclear winter followed the impact, as fine particles thrown up into the atmosphere blocked sunlight for years. The extended frozen darkness killed ecosystems from plants and phytoplankton upwards.

Recent research shows that global wildfires were likely also an important driver of extinctions, at least for life on land.

The asteroid blasted flaming debris across the atmosphere. Massive deposits of soot found in the fossil record at this precise time suggest most of the Earth’s forests went up in smoke, though these cataclysmic calculations remain controversial.

Read more: Did fire kill off Australia’s megafauna?

Only animals that could escape fire survived

The fossil record of land-dwelling animals – especially reptiles, birds and mammals – attests to the deadly efficiency of what has been dubbed the dinosaur firestorm. The nature of the victims and survivors is very relevant to current events.

The land animals that made it through the extinction all lived in ways that could confer resilience to heat and fire, such as living partly in water, being able to burrow or hide in deep crevices, or being able to escape rapidly by flight.

Among reptiles, crocodilians and freshwater tortoises (both amphibious) sailed through. Worm-lizards and burrowing snakes survived, but surface-dwelling lizards and snakes were hard hit.

Among mammals, platypus-like monotremes (aquatic and burrowing) clung on, as did tiny rodent-like placental mammals (able to burrow, or hide in deep crevices), but all large placental mammals died. And while at least some birds survived, all their large, earth-bound, dinosaurian relatives perished.

In fact, it appears that every land-dwelling animal species larger than a domestic cat was ultimately doomed, unless it could swim, burrow or fly.

Even these abilities did not guarantee survival: they merely gave creatures a slightly better chance. For instance, pterosaurs could fly well, but still went extinct, along with most bird species.

Recent research suggests perching birds –- which need forests to live in –- were essentially eliminated when most of the world’s trees disappeared. The sole avian survivors were ground-foragers similar to chickens and rails, and it took millions of years for new perching birds (modern songbirds) to re-evolve.

By exterminating many species, and doing so highly selectively, the global wildfires (alongside other effects of the asteroid impact) totally restructured Earth’s biosphere.

What about the current fires?

The recent rampant bushfires are regional rather than global (e.g. Australia, the Amazon, Canada, California, Siberia), and are burning less land cover than the worst-case dinosaur firestorm scenario.

Yet their long-term extinction effects could also be severe, because our planet has already lost half its forest cover due to humans. These fires are hitting shrunken biodiversity refuges that are simultaneously threatened by an anthropogenic cocktail of pollution, invasive feral species, and climate change.

The ancient catastrophe provides strong evidence, written in stone, that firestorms can contribute to extensive extinctions, even among large vertebrates with large distributions and high mobility.

It also shows certain types of organisms will bear the brunt of the impact. Entire guilds of similar species could vanish, severely impacting ecosystem function.

It took millions of years of regeneration and evolution for our planet’s biosphere to recover from the nuclear winter and wildfires of the asteroid impact. When a new world order eventually emerged, it was radically different: the age of dinosaurs gave way to the age of mammals and birds.

– ref. Bushfires have reshaped life on Earth before. They could do it again – http://theconversation.com/bushfires-have-reshaped-life-on-earth-before-they-could-do-it-again-129344

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amanda Gearing, Journalist, author, broadcaster, Queensland University of Technology

After reporting on the deadly 2011 Queensland flash flood disaster, I spent a year documenting accounts of heroic rescues, tragic deaths and extraordinary survival.

Five years later, I returned for a follow-up study. I found some survivors had recovered, but many were far worse off.

This research suggests there is a long road ahead for survivors of the current bushfire crisis. However, there are key lessons to be learned.

Read more: The bushfires are horrendous, but expect cyclones, floods and heatwaves too

The initial response

At the time of the 2011 Queensland flood crisis, the Australian Defence Force arrived to help. Community spirit was high. Australia and the world donated very generously.

But after the first few weeks, initial assistance gave way to often intractable difficulties with housing, insurance claims, job losses and chronic physical and mental health conditions.

Blanket media coverage of the crisis soon dwindled. And for many people, there simply was no return to “normal” life.

Five years on

Five years after the event, many still struggled. The journey was far longer and more difficult for people who:

• lost family members during or after the disaster
• were traumatised by a near-death experience
• could no longer work in their old job
• had significant health problems
• had insurance claims that were slow, difficult or rejected.

Those people who were most able to recover were people who:

• lost possessions but who were not traumatised by the disaster
• remained healthy and had insurance with companies that promptly paid their claims
• were able to resume work
• were able to repair or replace their homes and return to a relatively normal life within a few months to a year.

After five years, some people realised they would never recover. Some said they would have preferred to die than endure the five years post-flood.

Several survivors spoke of the “near miss” they had with death. For some, it was an incentive to live every day with renewed gusto. For others, the near miss reinforced the fragility of life and left them feeling more vulnerable.

Death and near-death experiences

Thirty-three of the rescuers and survivors in the disaster experienced a near-death experience. Five years on, some of them had still not attended any counselling and reported memories of near-death experiences playing out in their minds in an endless video-loop. Some became hermits, afraid to leave home.

One of the rescuers told me it took five years to even acknowledge he had risked his life.

One mother whose children were at risk said:

Life as you know it changed on that day. You know that one second your life is normal and then how quickly things can change. I scan all the time. I scan rooms for the exit. I scan terrain in case something happens […] which is the quickest way to escape?

Lasting psychological impacts

Two thirds of the people interviewed still had ongoing traumatic memories five years after the disaster – including seeing or hearing the sounds of the disaster, smelling the fetid aromas associated with floods or feeling anxious at the sound of helicopters.

For some, the trauma triggers occurred only in the flood zone, while for others it could be anywhere, whcih meant moving away offered no respite.

Read more: It’s hard to breathe and you can’t think clearly – if you defend your home against a bushfire, be mentally prepared

In the small town of Grantham, where 13 people died, witnesses told an inquiry into the disaster that counsellors changed from week to week (meaning survivors had to retell their stories again to a new counsellor). The service then stopped because townspeople didn’t want to see them.

Return or move away?

Many people no longer felt safe at home. People who had to rebuild as property values fell and insurance premiums skyrocketed – some up to A$34,000/year – could not afford to insure their house. They feared a total loss of their homes next time.

Some people who never returned to affected towns fared better psychologically than those who did go back.

Some people returned initially, rebuilt, but then sold up and left again. Some told me they would not be alive unless they got out when they did.

Whole communities all but disappeared as almost the entire population left town.

Natural disasters are financial disasters

After a natural disaster, mortgages still need to be paid, even on houses that are uninhabitable. Accommodation costs mount. The risk of homelessness and bankruptcy increases and relationships can be put under enormous stress.

Property values in the towns and districts affected by the 2011 floods fell dramatically and immediately, meaning some people couldn’t sell and move away.

Several survivors were unable to return to their old jobs because their workplace had been destroyed or because it was too traumatic.

One who stayed to rebuild his business experienced another disaster two years later and lost his service station a second time. He rebuilt again only to have his business destroyed a third time the following year.

Read more: Making sense of Australia’s bushfire crisis means asking hard questions – and listening to the answers

People who are injured at work in Queensland are eligible to claim on WorkCover, a government funded program that assists workers to recover and return to work. People injured in disasters, however are not eligible for the same type of assistance.

Many people relied on charities for food, clothes and shelter for months to years after the flood. Some refused or resisted charitable help or government help.

Some older people reported becoming dependent on their adult children for the first time.

What is needed

The research suggests several possible ways to help natural disaster survivors including, but not limited to:

• better access to publicly funded psychological care beyond the current 10 visits allowable under the current Medicare system, especially for people who have lost family or their home or business
• free and well coordinated government-funded counselling in disaster zones
• income support and emergency housing for people who have lost homes
• government-funded funerals for those who die in a natural disaster
• provision of short-term retraining for those who cannot return to their old jobs
• the creation of a “DisasterCover” system to support volunteer rescuers or firefighters with access to counselling, income support and job security – in the same way that WorkCover might support professional firefighters. A legislated scheme would mean survivors are not at the whim of ad hoc emergency government funding or relying on public appeals
• such a scheme could cover emergency medical, rehabilitation and wage costs and then claim them back, where possible, from the claimant’s private medical and income protection insurance
• improved land planning around where it is safe to build.

All of this sounds expensive. But the cost of not learning these lessons may be greater in the long run.

Read more: As bushfire and holiday seasons converge, it may be time to say goodbye to the typical Australian summer holiday

– ref. Disaster recovery from Australia’s fires will be a marathon, not a sprint – http://theconversation.com/disaster-recovery-from-australias-fires-will-be-a-marathon-not-a-sprint-129325