Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Francesco Paolucci, Associate Professor of Health Economics, University of Bologna, and Professor of Health Economics, University of Newcastle

Australia has fared better than most countries in reducing its COVID-19 cases to very low numbers. However, on June 15, new clusters of infection were identified in Victoria. The numbers grew so rapidly that metropolitan Melbourne is back in lockdown and the border with New South Wales is closed.

Lapses in quarantine for people with COVID-19 returning from overseas are believed to have led to community transmission in Victoria. Hotel isolation has been effective in other states.

Read more: Melbourne’s lockdown came too late. It’s time to consider moving infected people outside the home

However, while incoming travellers to Australia are forced to isolate for two weeks, any onshore patients are only asked to self-isolate at home. Community spread due to a patient failing to comply with the self-isolation rule (or more innocently as a member of a shared household) could easily create multiple new clusters as in Victoria.

So how do the costs and risks of aggressive hotel isolation compare with self-isolation at home? We ran the numbers. Although hotel isolation is more expensive than self-isolation at home, for families of more than five people we found the likely costs flowing from transmission to others would justify hotel isolation.

The recent outbreaks in Victoria, especially in higher-density public housing towers, illustrate the high risk of disease spread within and across households. Ultimately, this transmission can place an intolerable burden on the health-care system, as we have seen overseas.

Read more: 288 new coronavirus cases marks Victoria’s worst day. And it will probably get worse before it gets better

Weighing up the options

We analysed the economic costs and benefits of forced isolation of onshore patients to help guide decisions on when patients should be forcibly isolated away from the family home. We first considered the cost of the two alternatives when a person is confirmed positive:

1. home isolation: self-isolating at home where the person may live with other household members

2. hotel isolation: isolating the person in a hotel room to prevent interaction with other householders.

In hotel isolation, the estimated cost is A$177 per night for accommodation plus A$113.70 per day for food and other essentials. Therefore, the total cost of isolating a confirmed case in a hotel room for a typical isolation period of 14 days would be $4,069.80.

On the other hand, when a confirmed case is asked to self-isolate at home, we need to consider the cost of hospital care for other householders who might contract the virus.

The chance of spreading the virus to other household members, known as the household secondary attack rate (HSAR), is typically between 3% and 15%. But it could be higher depending on the environment and how aggressive the virus is. We assume the rate to be 15% with a household size of 2.6, the average for Australia.

Based on current data, an estimated 20% of cases will require hospitalisation, of which about 25% will be admitted to intensive care units. The average stay in hospital is reported as 16 days (with ten days in ICU) if the confirmed case needs critical care. Otherwise, the average is eight days on wards. The costs of one day in ICU and on wards in Australia are reported as A$5,000 and A$1,800 respectively.

On our calculations, the expected cost of self-isolating a confirmed case and exposing other household members would be $1,248.

This suggests the cost of isolating in a hotel room is significantly greater than for self-isolating at home in an average-sized household.

Read more: Melbourne’s hotel quarantine bungle is disappointing but not surprising. It was overseen by a flawed security industry

Household size matters

The household secondary attack rate is highly dependent on factors such as types of activities, duration of event, household ventilation and viral shedding. The rate can be as high as 100%. In other words, the whole household is infected.

Further analysis of the relationship between household size and secondary attack rate shows the cost of home isolation increases greatly and exceeds the cost of hotel isolation when household size is five people or more.

So, the decision on where to isolate an infected person needs to be re-evaluated when five or more people are living in the home. More than 10% of households in Australia have five or more members.

Read more: ‘Kissing can be dangerous’: how old advice for TB seems strangely familiar today

What does this mean for stopping the spread?

This analysis is particularly relevant to decisions on measures to contain outbreaks such as the isolation of whole buildings, as in Victoria.

The lockdown of public housing towers may be considered a larger case of “home isolation” where density and dwelling sizes may greatly increase the likely household attack rate. The increased risk of infection for individuals within the building or groups of buildings suggests hotel isolation could be both a safer and more cost-effective measure.

Read more: Overcrowding and affordability stress: Melbourne’s COVID-19 hotspots are also housing crisis hotspots

Facing the risks of a second wave of COVID-19 infections, the government needs to consider multiple measures to control the spread of the virus. Although our findings show the cost of self-isolating a patient in his/her home is cheaper than a hotel room on average, this is not the case for all household sizes. Strategies such as testing, isolation and contact tracing, including use of the COVIDSafe app, can play a crucial role in the broader control of COVID-19.

– ref. Is aggressive hotel isolation worth the cost to fight COVID-19? The answer depends on family size – https://theconversation.com/is-aggressive-hotel-isolation-worth-the-cost-to-fight-covid-19-the-answer-depends-on-family-size-142283

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Burke, Associate Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

Putting a price on carbon should reduce emissions, because it makes dirty production processes more expensive than clean ones, right?

That’s the economic theory. Stated baldly, it’s obvious, but there is perhaps a tiny chance that what happens in practice might be something else.

In a newly-published paper, we set out the results of the largest-ever study of what happens to emissions from fuel combustion when they attract a charge.

We analysed data for 142 countries over more than two decades, 43 of which had a carbon price of some form by the end of the study period.

Read more: Explainer: Australia’s carbon price mechanism in six dot points

The results show that countries with carbon prices on average have annual carbon dioxide emissions growth rates that are about two percentage points lower than countries without a carbon price, after taking many other factors into account.

By way of context, the average annual emissions growth rate for the 142 countries was about 2% per year.

This size of effect adds up to very large differences over time. It is often enough to make the difference between a country having a rising or a declining emissions trajectory.

Emissions tend to fall in countries with carbon prices

A quick look at the data gives a first clue.

The figure below shows countries that had a carbon price in 2007 as a black triangle, and countries that did not as a green circle.

On average, carbon dioxide emissions fell by 2% per year over 2007–2017 in countries with a carbon price in 2007 and increased by 3% per year in the others.

Carbon dioxide emissions growth in countries with and without a carbon price in 2007

The difference between an increase of 3% per year and a decrease of 2% per year is five percentage points. Our study finds that about two percentage points of that are due to the carbon price, with the remainder due to other factors.

The challenge was pinning down the extent to which the change was due to the implementation of a carbon price and the extent to which it was due to a raft of other things happening at the same time, including improving technologies, population and economic growth, economic shocks, measures to support renewables and differences in fuel tax rates.

We controlled for a long list of other factors, including the use of other policy instruments.

It would be reasonable to expect a higher carbon price to have bigger effects, and this is indeed what we found.

On average an extra euro per tonne of carbon dioxide price is associated with a lowering in the annual emissions growth rate in the sectors it covers of about 0.3 percentage points.

Lessons for Australia

The message to governments is that carbon pricing almost certainly works, and typically to great effect.

While a well-designed approach to reducing emissions would include other complementary policies such as regulations in some sectors and support for low-carbon research and development, carbon pricing should ideally be the centrepiece of the effort.

Unfortunately, the politics of carbon pricing have been highly poisoned in Australia, despite it being popular in a number of countries with conservative governments including Britain and Germany. Even Australia’s Labor opposition seems to have given up.

Nevertheless, it should be remembered that Australia’s two-year experiment with carbon pricing delivered emissions reductions as the economy grew. It was working as designed.

Read more: One year on from the carbon price experiment, the rebound in emissions is clear

Groups such as the Business Council of Australia that welcomed the abolition of the carbon price back in 2014 are now calling for an effective climate policy with a price signal at its heart.

Carbon pricing elsewhere

The results of our study are highly relevant to many governments, especially those in industrialising and developing countries, that are weighing up their options.

The world’s top economics organisations including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development continue to call for expanded use of carbon pricing.

If countries are keen on a low-carbon development model, the evidence suggests that putting an appropriate price on carbon is a very effective way of achieving it.

An open-access version of this research is available here.

– ref. Carbon pricing works: the largest-ever study puts it beyond doubt – https://theconversation.com/carbon-pricing-works-the-largest-ever-study-puts-it-beyond-doubt-142034

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Fiona David, Visiting Fellow, University of Western Australia

In previous recessions in Australia, far larger numbers of men than women lost their jobs. This reflected realities at that time. Men had higher levels of workforce participation than women, and the construction and manufacturing industries were particularly hard hit.

But in 2020, the composition of the workforce has changed. While far from even, today, women’s participation in the economy sits at 61% compared to 71% for men.

Recent payroll statistics show both men and women are losing their jobs in the pandemic, although women were particularly hard hit in its early stages.

Of course, paid employment is not the only work that gets done. Historically women have carried the bulk of caring work.

Statistics from the government’s gender agency suggest during COVID-19, more women than men are reporting heavier caring responsibilities, both for children and adults, as well as housework.

This context is important to keep in mind when noting the government’s COVID-19 childcare relief package ended on Monday. Under the package, the government’s various childcare subsidy payments were suspended and it provided childcare centres with 50% of the hourly rate cap based on enrolment numbers between February 19 and March 2.

Parents were not required to pay fees. Now, the pre-existing complex system of subsidies has been reinstated and parents will once again be charged fees.

Read more: Morrison has rescued childcare from COVID-19 collapse – but the details are still murky

Added to this, the JobKeeper payment will end from July 20 for employees of childcare providers, which will impact childcare workers as well as cooks, managers, admin staff and cleaners in these centres.

There will be A$708 million in funding for services to replace JobKeeper from July 13 until September 27. This money will be used to pay childcare services 25% of the fee revenue they received before COVID-19 saw parents pulling children out of attendance.

The end of this package is a double hit to women. It hits an industry mostly staffed by women, and removes free child-care when women are struggling with increased caring responsibilities and job losses.

This is deeply concerning from the perspective of gender equity. But if that is not reason enough, the economics of the decision should give pause for thought.

The system pushes women with children away from work

It is two years since accounting firm KPMG developed the “workforce disincentive rate” — a measure of the economic deterrence facing women wanting to return to work after having children, under our existing system of tax and benefits.

This rates the proportion of any extra earnings lost to a family after taking account of additional income tax paid, loss of family payments, loss of childcare payments and increased out-of-pocket childcare costs when women return to work after having children.

A 100% workforce disincentive rate means a family is no better off with the mother working more hours. A rate of more than 100% indicates the family is financially worse off when the mother works additional hours.

The KPMG study found workforce disincentive rates of between 75-120% are common for mothers seeking to increase their work beyond three days a week.

This means that, in many cases, women working additional days or taking additional shifts under the old system are financially worse off.

The study found professional, university-educated women are disproportionately affected.

Read more: Quality childcare has become a necessity for Australian families, and for society. It’s time the government paid up

Often, their fourth or fifth working day will cause the family’s income to exceed a threshold, significantly reducing the family’s childcare subsidy entitlement.

This means that while many women return to part-time work after having children, far fewer return to full-time work. And this has flow-on effects throughout the economy and impedes the career progression of women.

This is the economics of the system to which Australian families have just been returned. This is the economics that needs to be urgently reconsidered, given our shared imperitive to find ways to stimulate economic growth.

Economic recovery depends on women

Australia’s economic recovery depends on finding ways to support and unlock economic growth and jobs. One way to do this is to unlock the productivity gains that come from increasing women’s workforce participation.

KPMG estimates even halving the gap between male and female workforce participation would increase our annual GDP by A$60 billion over the next two decades.

One of the barriers to women going to work is the cost of childcare. We see the results in the labour force statistics. Women make up 37.7% of all full-time employees and 68.2% of all part-time employees.

Read more: COVID-19 has laid bare how much we value women’s work, and how little we pay for it

Australian families have now had a taste of what it is like to the have access to fee-free childcare. Statistics are not available yet to enable us to understand exactly who took advantage of this system, but one thing is for certain. The economics of fee-free childcare are fundamentally different to the economics of the old system of childcare, which involved a complex interaction between subsidies and tax transfers.

It is possible fee-free childcare saw some women either being able to afford to return to work or increase their working hours.

For too long, Australian working women have literally carried the cost of childcare, and suffered the impact on their own careers.

It is time to recognise that delivering a new system of childcare, that does not disincentivise working women, would not only support our combined efforts to achieve gender equality, it would also constitute a major economic reform with benefits for everyone.

– ref. We need a new childcare system that encourages women to work, not punishes them for it – https://theconversation.com/we-need-a-new-childcare-system-that-encourages-women-to-work-not-punishes-them-for-it-142275

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendon O’Connor, Associate Professor in American Politics at the United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney

Curtis Sittenfeld has a knack of putting her readers in uncomfortable places in her fiction. In her short story Gender Studies she puts you in the middle of a hotel tryst between a Clinton-supporting professor and a Trump-supporting shuttle bus driver. In The Nominee, a journalist vomits on Hillary Rodham Clinton.

In Rodham, Sittenfeld returns to the former First Lady, but with a twist. An imagined memoir, Rodham is propelled by a “what if” thought experiment: what if, in 1975, Hillary left Bill?

It is an alternative reality page turner, and a welcome escapist read in these difficult times.

But how does the book play with the historical record?

Year of the Woman

Sittenfeld’s first turning point in Hillary’s political career is while she watches the 1991 Clarence Thomas Senate confirmation hearings from her colleague’s office at Northwestern University.

In both the true and imagined histories — despite clear evidence Thomas had sexually harassed his former employee Anita Hill — a predominantly male Senate confirmed Thomas’s appointment.

The backlash against these widely watched hearings led to 1992 being dubbed the “Year of the Woman” when a record number of women ran and were elected to the US Congress.

In the novel, Hillary runs and defeats Carol Moseley Braun in the Democrat primary. In real life, Braun won this race to become the first ever black female Senator.

The 60 Minutes interview

It is credibly claimed Hillary’s strength in 1992’s infamous 60 Minutes interview saved Bill’s candidacy.

I have watched the real interview with Hillary many times with my students. Questioned about Bill’s alleged affair with Gennifer Flowers, the interview was a watershed moment in the changing attitude of the media towards politicians’ sex lives.

The interview is tough to first watch: why should any couple’s most private affairs be discussed on television like this? What good does it serve?

On re-watching the interview, I am struck by the effective way in which Bill and Hillary talk down the interviewer and control the narrative. Hillary particularly does this with her famous statement:

I’m not sitting here, some little woman standing by my man like Tammy Wynette. I’m sitting here because I love him, and I respect him, and I honour what he’s been through and what we’ve been through together. And you know, if that’s not enough for people, then heck — don’t vote for him.

In Sittenfeld’s imagined interview, Bill’s publicity-shy wife, Sarah Grace, breaks down and cries, effectively ending Bill’s run for presidency.

Sexism in politics

Rodham does an excellent job at detailing the many forms of sexism women face in academia and politics. In the first part of the novel, Professor Rodham is a successful law academic whose male students and colleagues say things they would never say to male academics.

Such double standards are also highlighted by the fictional Hillary once she enters politics as a Senator for Illinois. She laments:

The extra time female politicians were expected to spend on our appearance, known as the pink tax, amounted to an hour a day for me, but I’d learned the hard way that this was necessary. In the past, whenever I didn’t have my hair and makeup professionally done, the media would speculate about whether I was ill or exhausted.

In a delicious plot line, Bill and Hillary end up competing against each other in the 2016 Presidential primaries which leads Hillary to ask: “You know when true equality will be achieved? When a woman with these kinds of skeletons in her closet has the nerve to run for the office.”

Truths and half-truths

The novel draws on the rumours published in Vanity Fair and elsewhere of Bill Clinton’s affairs and involvement in sex parties, as well as discussing the long-standing allegation he raped a female campaign volunteer in the 1970s.

Read more: Weiner’s erotic mediation: Bill Clinton’s sex vs Anthony Weiner’s sexting

In the novel Hillary’s long-time mentor Gwen Greenberger, an African American children’s right advocate, is stand-in for a few significant figures in Hillary’s actual life, including the very impressive Marian Wright Edelman, the founder of the Children’s Defense Fund.

The novel also features James, a stand in character for Hillary Clinton’s friend and fellow partner at the Rose Law Firm in Arkansas, Vince Foster, who died by suicide leading to conspiracy theories against the Clintons.

An appeal to experience

Throughout Rodham, Sittenfeld dissects the question of Hillary’s “likeability” by the press and the American people. In a killer debate response (that I wish she had given in 2016) she says:

[I]f you want someone to look out for the interests of the American people, for your family, for you – someone who understands the economy and education and health care and foreign policy … then vote for me.

In the real election in 2016, too many Americans ignored this appeal to experience and competence and tragically they have ended up with a president that cares little about governing or even the rising death toll of his own people.

The truth has turned out to be more unbelievable than Sittenfeld’s fiction.

– ref. Fiction, fact and Hillary Clinton: an American politics expert reads Rodham – https://theconversation.com/fiction-fact-and-hillary-clinton-an-american-politics-expert-reads-rodham-142478

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Becky Freeman, Senior Research Fellow, University of Sydney

From next year, access to e-cigarettes and related products containing liquid nicotine will require a doctor’s prescription. This is to ensure liquid nicotine is handled like the poisonous, addictive substance it is and not promoted to young people. It’s good news for public health and bad news for the tobacco and e-cigarette industries.

This restriction comes into effect from January 1 2021, six months later than originally proposed.

It’s not a ban on importing e-cigarettes. But it will close loopholes between established prohibitions on the supply and sale of nicotine at the federal level, and state and territory laws restricting access to nicotine.

Here’s the evidence to show why closing the loophole between health regulations, customs regulations and state and territory laws is good news for the nation’s health.

Read more: Twelve myths about e-cigarettes that failed to impress the TGA

The so-called benefits of e-cigs don’t stand up

There have only been a small number of quality reviews on the harms and benefits of e-cigarettes for the whole population (rather than for individual people). They draw the same conclusions.

CSIRO and the US National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine reviews found the evidence for e-cigarettes helping people quit smoking is inconclusive. The reviews also found e-cigarettes are harmful in their own right and associated with increased smoking and nicotine use in young people.

A 2017 review from Australia’s National Health and Medical Research Council drew similar conclusions.

Australian regulator, the Therapeutic Goods Administration or TGA, found no evidence to support the sale of e-cigarettes as a “therapeutic good”; the evidence of therapeutic benefit was inconclusive. Nor has the TGA found evidence to relax existing poison safety controls that require liquid nicotine access to be authorised by a doctor.

Despite the e-cigarette industry’s claims and further promotion that “e-cigarettes are 95% less harmful” than smoking traditional cigarettes, there is no scientific basis for this either.

Protecting young people

Tobacco companies and retailers claim e-cigarettes are an effective quit aid and are targeted at adult smokers who need them.

However, the tobacco industry and retail sector promote e-cigarettes through youth-friendly events, such as music festivals, and through social media by using influencers and celebrities, including singer Lily Allen.

And the promotion of flavoured e-cigarette products — strawberry, doughnut or banana, for instance — could create a generation of nicotine addicts.

So, Australia’s latest move will protect young people and avoid the fate of countries like the US, where e-cigarette use in secondary school children has increased 78% in just 12 months.

Parents and teachers are now seeing more e-cigarette use in Australian schools. It is telling that the largest growing segment in e-cigarette use in Australia is in 18 to 24-year-old non-smokers and use has also risen among 12 to 17-year-olds.

What about quitters?

There are individuals who feel e-cigarettes help reduce the harms of smoked tobacco, and doctors who agree with them.

Read more: Why the ban on nicotine vape fluid will do more harm than good

Given the toxicity and addictiveness of liquid nicotine, it is entirely appropriate to close loopholes that until now have enabled it to be acquired with no medical authority.

This is no different from controls around other harmful substances, such as methadone for treating heroin addiction.

There are two key differences with e-cigarettes. One, the case has not been made within an evidence-based framework that the products are safe and effective for widespread distribution; and two, they are being pushed through retailers operating outside the health system.

Is this the end of the line for e-cigarettes in Australia?

The government’s proposal is not closing the door to evidence or to options that may work for some individuals with a legitimate need to access these products. It is closing a door that exploits a disconnect between the poison and import laws to protect young Australians.

The restrictions will also prevent profiteers from addicting young Australians to harmful, novel products. Evidence on the benefits of e-cigarettes remains inconclusive but the risks to young Australians are increasingly clear.

Read more: Australia’s decisive win on plain packaging paves way for other countries to follow suit

– ref. Making it harder to import e-cigarettes is good news for our health, especially young people’s – https://theconversation.com/making-it-harder-to-import-e-cigarettes-is-good-news-for-our-health-especially-young-peoples-141986

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kris Gledhill, Professor of Law, Auckland University of Technology

The sentencing of the Christchurch mosque killer was always going to be tense. Having admitted his guilt in March, his declaration that he would now represent himself at the hearing on August 24 only adds to that tension.

Can he do this? Essentially, yes. Legal representation is a right, but people can choose not to exercise a right. His lawyers informed the court of his wish to represent himself and the judge, Justice Mander, allowed them to withdraw from the case – after checking that the defendant was clear about waiving his right.

The criminal courts deal with horrendous cases regularly, so squeamishness cannot be the touchstone for what is permitted.

Parliament has introduced some limits. For example, the Evidence Act 2006 prevents defendants in sex cases and family violence cases from cross-examining the complainant. Nor can they question child witnesses without the court’s permission.

The importance of victim impact statements

More pertinent to this case, there are limits relating to victim impact statements under the Victims’ Rights Act 2002, which prevents defendants from keeping those statements.

The Christchurch killer’s sentencing hearing is set to last several days in large part because of the number of victim impact statements that will have to be presented.

The judge can direct that statements not be shown to the defendant to protect the safety or security of the victim, but that material cannot then be taken into account at sentencing.

This in turn explains why defendants are entitled to see statements – they are designed to have an effect on their sentence. It would not be a fair trial if the defendant was subject to secret evidence, and any impression there has not been a fair process is to be avoided.

Read more: Explainer: will life mean life when the Christchurch mosque killer is sentenced?

The role of stand-by counsel

Multiple issues of law may arise in this sentencing. For example, who is the “victim” of a terrorism offence and so allowed to give a victim impact statement? Is it the entire Muslim community?

The most obvious question is whether this crime merits a whole life sentence. A life sentence is inevitable given the number of murders and the terrorist motivation. But will this be the first time a New Zealand judge declares there will never be eligibility for parole?

To assist the court the judge has said “stand-by counsel” will be appointed. Their job will be to help the court reach a correct decision on those questions of law.

They may also be asked to help identify points in favour of the defendant from medical and pre-sentencing reports, and perhaps ensure that victim impact statements address what the law permits.

Will the defendant appear in person?

Because the person speaking for the defendant is the defendant, this may affect some rulings. Firstly, it may be more likely he attends in person.

The defendant has already appeared before the High Court via audio-visual link. Under the Courts (Remote Participation) Act 2010, this is permitted in most instances. While it can’t be used for a trial unless the defendant consents, it may be used for sentencing if it is “not contrary to the interests of justice”.

Although the defendant has confessed to the crimes, his sentencing hearing may still involve disputes about the facts of his offending, which could require a mini-trial to resolve them.

Read more: Life in prison looms for Australia’s Christchurch gunman, now NZ’s first convicted terrorist

There may be evidence called from the authors of medical and pre-sentencing reports. There may be disputes about the victim impact statements. And the defendant’s right to see those statements presents challenges if he is not there.

These and other issues that might arise will require a high level of confidence that an audio-visual link is suitable if the defendant indicates he wants to be present.

What are the risks of hate speech?

It’s unwise to speculate about the defandant’s motives for waiving the right to representation. Nevertheless, there may be legitimate concerns about any attempt by him to use the hearing to grandstand.

The key point here is that the hearing is not about his guilt but about the proper sentence. So, unless he can show that his guilty pleas were improper, the hearing will be concerned with a narrow range of issues governed by the Sentencing Act 2002.

This imposes a structure on the sentencing process. The judge needs to consider the facts of the offending, any aggravating factors and any mitigation that can be offered. As such, submissions and statements from the defendant have to be relevant to these issues. They will usually be notified in writing in advance.

The defendant’s motivation for his crimes is relevant to sentence. However, because he has admitted the terrorism charge, his motivation is not in dispute. That should allow the judge to control the hearing firmly.

A fair process is both possible and essential. Giving a terrorist murderer any grounds to complain about unfairness must be avoided.

– ref. How will the court deal with the Christchurch mosque killer representing himself at sentencing? – https://theconversation.com/how-will-the-court-deal-with-the-christchurch-mosque-killer-representing-himself-at-sentencing-142554

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kerrie Davies, Lecturer, School of the Arts & Media, UNSW

Review: A Room Made of Leaves, Text Publishing

Some time ago, during the renovation of a historic house in Sydney, a tin box, sealed with wax and wrapped in oiled canvas, was found wedged under a beam in the roof cavity. The house was Elizabeth Farm…

So begins A Room Made of Leaves’ editor’s note, detailing the discovery of the “long lost secret memoirs” of Elizabeth Macarthur, wife of colonial wool baron John Macarthur. The “editor and transcriber” is Kate Grenville, author of the acclaimed colonial novel based on her family history, The Secret River.

The discovery scenario is irresistibly believable. This month, a WWII diary was found at a Woolworths in Sydney’s North Shore. In 2011, James Bell’s 1838 account of his journey to Australia was published after being discovered at a market stall. In 2018, Miles Franklin’s final 1954 diary was discovered in an old suitcase.

Elizabeth Macarthur’s actual journal detailing her voyage on the Second Fleet was discovered at her daughter’s home in England, extracts of which were published as Some Early Records of the Macarthurs of Camden in 1914.

Grenville’s imaginary memoir of Elizabeth slips into the space between hoax and history, the paradox of purporting to be true while declaring it is not. Grenville openly plays with memoir’s “autobiographical pact”, where the reader unquestionably accepts an autobiography as truth. While a novel requires a suspension of disbelief, Grenville asks the reader to suspend their belief, akin to Peter Carey’s “feat of imposture”, True History of the Kelly Gang.

Read more: True History of the Kelly Gang review: an unheroic portrait of a violent, unhinged, colonial punk

Grenville so convincingly creates Elizabeth’s voice it is easy to forget her opening warning: “Do not believe too quickly!”

Remains unsaid

In Grenville’s telling of Elizabeth’s telling of her marriage to John Macarthur, Elizabeth astutely understands how to manage the patriarchy rather than be a “true helpmate” to her husband as she is introduced in the family history.

She writes of the notoriously difficult John: “He could not be trusted not to destroy our hopes.” Elizabeth believes John is “dangerously unbalanced”.

Through her revision of the Macarthurs’ relationship, Grenville’s imaginary memoir joins the litany of (imaginary and authentic) revisionist biographies of wives overlooked or derided because of their husband’s fame.

Read more: #ThanksforTyping: the women behind famous male writers

Elizabeth’s friendship with astronomer William Dawes is the central relationship. Grenville’s 2008 novel The Lieutenant was loosely based on Dawes, and she was inspired to write this imaginary memoir after reading Elizabeth’s passing reference to Dawes in an actual letter describing her astronomy lessons with the scientist and naval officer: “I blush at my error”.

This blush becomes a motif throughout A Room Made of Leaves: of the true nature of their friendship, and for what remains unsaid. “I blush at my error” was, in Grenville’s eyes, a rare glimpse of Elizabeth’s feelings hidden in what Grenville describes in her editor’s note as otherwise “unrevealing” and “dull” correspondence.

As in The Secret River, Grenville once again writes of a brutal history of colonisation and resistance. Sensitive to previous suggestions of whitewashing (which she has refuted at length), in A Room Made of Leaves Grenville expresses her gratitude to the Darug Custodian Aboriginal Corporation and the Metropolitan Local Aboriginal Land Council for their assistance in writing the book.

After being told of the Battle of Parramatta led by resistance leader, Pemulwuy, Elizabeth visits the battle site and alludes to dominant colonial accounts:

There was nothing to show what had happened. Only the words of that story, snipped out and pasted onto the air.

Filling the silence

There is historical precedence for reading Elizabeth’s actual letters with the eye for the unsaid. 18th and 19th century women’s life writing was written with the expectation it was not private and adhered to social conventions of behaviour. Self-censorship and “silences in the archives” abound.

As Elizabeth, Grenville fills the silences:

I composed a glorious romance about all this for my mother. I would not lie, not outright. I set myself a more interesting path: to make sure that my lies occupied the same space as the truth.

Michelle Scott Tucker’s referenced biography, Elizabeth Macarthur: A Life at the Edge of the World is a tempting companion to come back to reality after reading A Room Made of Leaves. But Grenville’s Elizabeth stays with you.

As you see more curls of truth in Tucker’s biography that appear in Grenville’s imaginary memoir, you wonder about how the real Elizabeth felt — rather than what actually happened.

– ref. Review: Kate Grenville’s A Room Made of Leaves fills the silence of the archives – https://theconversation.com/review-kate-grenvilles-a-room-made-of-leaves-fills-the-silence-of-the-archives-141985

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rohan Clarke, Director, Monash Drone Discovery Platform, and Senior Lecturer in Ecology, Monash University

This article is part of Flora, Fauna, Fire, a special project by The Conversation that launched this week. The project tracks the recovery of Australia’s native plants and animals after last summer’s bushfire tragedy. Explore the project here and read related articles here.

As we stepped out of a military helicopter on Victoria’s east coast in February, smoke towered into the sky. We’d just flown over a blackened landscape extending as far as the eye could see. Now we were standing in an active fireground, and the stakes were high.

Emergency helicopter rescues aren’t usually part of a day’s work for conservation scientists. But for eastern bristlebirds, a potential disaster loomed.

Our mission was to catch 15-20 bristlebirds and evacuate them to Melbourne Zoo. This would provide an insurance population of this globally endangered species if their habitat was razed by the approaching fire.

As climate change grows ever worse, such rescues will be more common. Ours showed how it can be done.

The plight of the eastern bristlebird

Such a rescue may seem like a lot of effort for a small, plain brown bird. But eastern bristlebirds are important to Australia’s biodiversity.

They continue an ancient lineage of songbirds that dates back to the Gondwanan supercontinent millions of years ago. They’re reminders of wild places that used to exist, unchanged by humans.

Read more: Yes, the Australian bush is recovering from bushfires – but it may never be the same

These days, coastal development has shrunk the eastern bristlebird’s habitat. The birds are feeble flyers, and so populations die out when their habitat patches become too small.

Fewer than 2,500 individuals remain, spread across three locations on Australia’s east coast including a 400-strong population that straddles the Victoria-New South Wales border at Cape Howe. Losing them would be a huge blow to the species’ long term prospects.

A rollercoaster ride

On the day of our rescue, bushfires had been raging on Australia’s east coast for several months. The so-called Snowy complex fire that started in late December had razed parts of Mallacoota on New Year’s Eve then burnt into NSW. Now, more than a month later, that same fire had crossed back over the state border and was burning into Cape Howe.

Our 11-person field team had two chances over consecutive mornings. Using special nets, we caught nine eastern bristlebirds on one morning, and six the next. As we worked, burnt leaves caught in our nets – a tangible reminder of how close the fire was.

The captured birds were health-checked then whisked – first by 4WD, then boat and car – to a waiting flight to Melbourne. From there they were driven to special enclosures at Melbourne Zoo.

On the second day a wind change intensified the bushfire and cut short our time. As we evacuated under a darkening sky, it seemed unlikely Cape Howe would escape the flames.

In the ensuing days, the fire moved agonisingly close to the site until a favourable wind change spared it.

But tragedy struck days later when fire tore through eastern bristlebird habitat on the NSW side of Cape Howe. Many of the 250 individuals that lived there are presumed dead.

And despite the best efforts of vets and expert keepers at Melbourne Zoo, six of our captive birds succumbed to a fungal respiratory infection in the weeks after their arrival, which they were all likely carrying when captured.

Return to Cape Howe

Against the odds, bristlebird habitat on the Victorian side of Cape Howe remained unburnt. So in early April, we released a little flock of seven back into the wild.

We’d initially planned to attach tiny transmitters to some released bristlebirds to monitor how they settled back into their home. But COVID-19 restrictions forced us to cancel this intensive fieldwork.

Instead, each bristlebird was fitted with a uniquely coloured leg band. As restrictions ease, our team will return to Cape Howe to see how the colour-banded birds have fared.

A model for the future

The evacuation involved collaboration between government agencies and non-government organisations, with especially important coordination and oversight by Zoos Victoria, the Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, and Parks Victoria.

This team moved mountains of logistical hurdles. A rescue mission that would ordinarily take more than a year to plan was completed in weeks.

Read more: After the bushfires, we helped choose the animals and plants in most need. Here’s how we did it

So was it all worth it? We strongly believe the answer is yes. The team did what was needed for the worst-case scenario; ultimately that scenario was avoided by a mere whisker.

But climate change is heightening fire danger and increasing the frequency of extreme weather events. Soberingly, further emergency wildlife evacuations will probably be needed to prevent extinctions in future. Our mission will serve as a model for these interventions.

– ref. Our helicopter rescue may seem a lot of effort for a plain little bird, but it was worth it – https://theconversation.com/our-helicopter-rescue-may-seem-a-lot-of-effort-for-a-plain-little-bird-but-it-was-worth-it-138818

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jess Marsh, Research fellow at the Harry Butler Institute, Murdoch University

This article is part of Flora, Fauna, Fire, a special project by The Conversation that launched this week. The project tracks the recovery of Australia’s native plants and animals after last summer’s bushfire tragedy. Explore the project here and read related articles here.

I’m standing on a hill in Kangaroo Island’s Western River Wilderness Protection Area, looking over steep gullies and sweeping hillsides. As far as I can see, the landscape is burnt: bright patches of regrowth contrast with skeletal, blackened trunks. It’s stark, yet strangely beautiful.

It’s late May, five months after the catastrophic summer fires burned 90% of the park. I’m here to assess the damage to some of our tiniest Australians.

Much attention has been given to the plight of Kangaroo Island’s iconic birds and mammals – the Glossy Black Cockatoo and the Kangaroo Island Dunnart, for example. However, the invertebrates – spiders, insects and myriad other groups – have largely been overlooked. These groups contain some of Australia’s most threatened species.

Among the invertebrates listed by the federal government as a priority for intervention is an unassuming, brownish-black spider with squat legs and a body about the size of a A$2 coin. Its name: the Kangaroo Island Micro-trapdoor spider (Moggridgea rainbowi).

The trials it now faces offer an insight into the enormous challenges ahead for invertebrates – the tiny engines of Australia’s biodiversity – in the wake of last summer’s cataclysmic fires.

Read more: Don’t like spiders? Here are 10 reasons to change your mind

The sea-faring spider

The Kangaroo Island Micro-trapdoor spider has an interesting history. It is the only member of its genus found in Australia, its closest relative being in Africa. Studies show it arrived here between 2 and 16 million years ago, likely rafting across the ocean on vegetation! A true voyager.

Kangaroo Island Micro-trapdoor spiders exist only on Kangaroo Island. They live in short, 6cm burrows, built neatly into creek banks. They are slow, calm spiders, spending most of their time in their burrow, determinedly holding the door shut with their fangs.

The females care for their young; I have opened a trapdoor to find 20 tiny spiders living together with their mother. When ready, the young disperse short distances to build burrows of their own, tiny versions of the adult’s.

Assessing the damage

My colleagues and I are in this conservation park today to locate patches of less fiercely burnt land in which to look for survivors. Sadly, all the known western populations of this enigmatic spider were destroyed. I am yet to find any survivors in the fire ground, but it is early days.

We will be out here for the next year or so, walking hundreds of kilometres of creek lines, searching for signs of life. There is a lot of land out there. Around 210,000 hectares was burnt, almost half of Kangaroo Island. I remain hopeful that some colonies have survived.

If we find some Kangaroo Island Micro-trapdoor spiders – what then?

Surviving the initial blaze is the first step in the struggle for survival. The post-fire environment has many threats – habitat loss, exposure to hungry predators, weeds. Today, I noticed areas where soil, loosened by fire, has washed into creeks, completely burying them.

If we find some surviving individuals, we’ll protect them by installing sediment control, removing weeds and monitoring them in future.

Why should we care?

Not everyone loves spiders. I get that. But the functions invertebrates perform are vital. Our ecosystem relies on them; humans rely on them. Yet collectively our understanding of invertebrates – their importance and their value – is dangerously low.

The Kangaroo Island Micro-trapdoor Spider plays its own role the ecosystem. It is a predator, but we don’t really know what it eats. It’s a food source for birds, mammals or reptiles, but we don’t know what eats it. So, why should we care?

Firstly, I firmly believe every species has its own intrinsic value; every extinction, although a natural part of life, is a loss.

Secondly, the ecosystem is so complicated we don’t know exactly how the loss of one species will impact its prey, the parasites that live on it or its predators. And when we’re facing multiple extinctions, these effects could be devastating.

The Kangaroo Island Micro-trapdoor spider, the Kangaroo Island Assassin Spider, the Green Carpenter Bee – we only know these species are threatened because scientists like me have spent years or decades studying them.

But the majority of Australia’s invertebrate species are yet to be discovered. Many will be similarly at risk, but we have no way of measuring the scale of risk or the repercussions. That’s a fact we should all find scary.

There is hope, though. It’s not yet over for these species. Work such as ours is a step towards understanding how worsening bushfires will affect these vital, but often forgotten, members of our ecosystem.

Read more: Bushfires: can ecosystems recover from such dramatic losses of biodiversity?

– ref. I’m searching firegrounds for surviving Kangaroo Island Micro-trapdoor spiders. 6 months on, I’m yet to find any – https://theconversation.com/im-searching-firegrounds-for-surviving-kangaroo-island-micro-trapdoor-spiders-6-months-on-im-yet-to-find-any-139556

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Lintermans, Associate professor, University of Canberra

This article is part of Flora, Fauna, Fire, a special project by The Conversation that launched this week. The project tracks the recovery of Australia’s native plants and animals after last summer’s bushfire tragedy. Explore the project here and read related articles here.

On a coastal holiday last summer, I was preoccupied. Bushfires were tearing through southeast Australia, and one in particular had me worried. Online maps showed it moving towards the last remaining population of a plucky little fish, the stocky galaxias.

I’ve worked in threatened fish conservation and management for more than 35 years, but this species is special to me.

The stocky galaxias was formally described as a new species in 2014. Its only known population lives in a short stretch of stream in Kosciuszko National Park in New South Wales. A single event could wipe them out.

On January 2 the bushfires forced my family and I to evacuate our holiday home. As we returned to Canberra, I was still worried. Fire maps showed the stocky’s stream virtually surrounded by fire.

A few days later, I prepared for an emergency rescue.

In critical danger

The stocky galaxias is the monarch of its small stream; the only fish species present. I’ve been trying to protect the stocky galaxias before it was even formally recognised.

Over the last century or more, the species has seen off threats from predatory trout, storms, droughts and bushfires. Snowy 2.0 is the latest danger.

It’s listed as critically endangered in NSW and is being assessed for a federal threatened listing. Before the fires, there were probably no more than 1,000-2,000 adults left in the wild.

Read more: After the bushfires, we helped choose the animals and plants in most need. Here’s how we did it

As the fires burned, I knew we had to move quickly. I wanted to collect up to 200 stocky galaxias and take them away for safekeeping.

Rainfall after bushfires is major threat to fish, because it washes ash and sediment into streams. Storms were forecast for the afternoon of January 15. So early that morning, myself and two colleagues, escorted by two staff from the NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service, drove to the stocky galaxias stream.

A colleague and I waded in and began electrofishing. This involved passing an electrical current through water, stunning fish momentarily so we could catch them.

After 45 minutes we’d collected 68 healthy stocky galaxias. Woohoo! Further downstream we collected 74 more. By now, fire burned along the stream edge. We packed the fish into drums in the back of my car and drove out.

We headed to the NSW Department of Primary Industries’ trout hatchery at Jindabyne, where we measured each fish and took a genetic sample. I felt immensely relieved and satisfied that we’d potentially saved a species from extinction.

The fish have been thriving in the hatchery building. Stocky galaxias have never been kept in captivity before, but our years of field work told us the temperatures they encountered in the wild, so holding tanks could be set up appropriately.

Read more: Conservation scientists are grieving after the bushfires — but we must not give up

Back to the stream

The captive fish can be used for breeding, but the species has never been captive-bred before and this is not a trivial task.

When they’re reintroduced to the wild, the sites must be free of trout, and other invasive fish like climbing galaxias. Natural or artificial barriers should be in place to prevent invasive fish invasion.

In late March I finally got back to the stocky galaxias’ stream to see whether they’d survived. At the lower stretch of its habitat, the fire was not severe and the stream habitat looked good, with only a small amount of ash and sediment.

Upstream, the fire had been more severe. At the edge of the stream, heath was razed and patches of sphagnum moss were burnt. Again, sediment in the stream was not too abundant. But fish numbers were lower than normal, suggesting some there had not survived.

The fight’s not over

The stocky galaxias species might have survived yet another peril, but the battle isn’t over.

Feral horse numbers in Kosciuszko National Park have increased dramatically in the last decade. They’ve degraded the banks of the stocky galaxias’ stream, making it wider and shallower and filling sections with fine sediment. This smothers the fish’s food resources, spawning sites and eggs.

Before the fires, plans were already afoot to fence off much of the stocky galaxias habitat to keep horses out. Fire damage to the park has delayed construction until early 2021.

Read more: Snowy 2.0 threatens to pollute our rivers and wipe out native fish

The biggest long-term threat to the species is the Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro development. It threatens to transfer an invasive native fish, the climbing galaxias, to within reach of stocky galaxias habitat. There, it would compete for food with, and prey on, stocky galaxias – probably pushing it into extinction.

Despite this risk, in May this year the NSW government approved the Snowy 2.0 expansion, with approval conditions that I believe fail to adequately protect the stocky galaxias population. The project has also received federal approval.

Future in the balance

The stocky galaxias is unique and irreplaceable. I want my grandchildren to be able to show their grandchildren this little Aussie battler thriving in the wild.

The damage wrought by Snowy 2.0 may not be apparent for several decades. By then many politicians and bureaucrats now deciding the future of the stocky galaxias will be gone, as will I.

But 2020 will go down in history as the year the species was saved from fire, then condemned to possible extinction.

– ref. Double trouble: this plucky little fish survived Black Summer, but there’s worse to come – https://theconversation.com/double-trouble-this-plucky-little-fish-survived-black-summer-but-theres-worse-to-come-139921

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jodi Rowley, Curator, Amphibian & Reptile Conservation Biology, Australian Museum

This article is part of Flora, Fauna, Fire, a special project by The Conversation that launched this week. The project tracks the recovery of Australia’s native plants and animals after last summer’s bushfire tragedy. Explore the project here and read related articles here.

Bushfires are a threat to most animal species. But for one rare lizard living on a rocky island in the sky, a single blaze could wipe the species off the planet.

The Kaputar rock skink (Egernia roomi) is thought to have have one of the smallest ranges of any reptile in New South Wales – at the summit of a single extinct volcano, Mount Kaputar.

The existence of this mysterious skink was informally known for decades, and in August last year the species was finally scientifically described. But months later, it may already be headed for extinction.

Late last year, bushfires are thought to have ripped through more than half the Kaputar rock skink’s habitat. We don’t yet know what this means for its survival, but the outlook is not good.

A very special skink

The Kaputar rock skink is handsome lizard, typically around 10 centimetres in body length, with dark chocolate brown and grey scales and an orange belly.

It’s found in the Nandewar Ranges near Narrabri. The ranges – weathered remnants of ancient volcanic eruptions between 21 and 17 million years ago – rise out of the surrounding plains in a series of breathtaking rock formations.

Read more: Double trouble: this plucky little fish survived Black Summer, but there’s worse to come

The Kaputar rock skink lives on one of these outcrops, Mount Kaputar. It exists on a narrow band of rock at the summit, more than 1,300 metres above sea level.

This high elevation areas is cooler than the surrounding plains, which suits this cool-adapted species perfectly. But the species’ tiny range means it’s highly vulnerable. When danger strikes, the Kaputar rock skink has nowhere to go.

When the fires hit

Bushfires tore through the Nandewar Ranges in October and November last year, reportedly burning more than 17,000 hectares of bush. More than half of Kaputar rock skink habitat is believed to have burned.

The expert panel advising the federal government on bushfire recovery has named the skink as one of 119 severely-affected species needing urgent conservation intervention. But the species’ rugged, remote habitat, combined with COVID-19 restrictions, have delayed efforts to assess the extent of the damage.

Read more: After the bushfires, we helped choose the animals and plants in most need. Here’s how we did it

It’s likely that many Kaputar rock skinks died during the fires themselves, although we hope others survived by crawling deep into rock cracks.

But after the fires, threats remain. Vegetation loss may make the skinks easy prey, and in a charred landscape, there may be little for the reptiles to eat.

History tells us fires do affect high-elevation skinks. For example, fire is thought to have driven the rock-dwelling Guthega skink (Liopholis guthega) to become locally extinct at some sites on the Bogong High Plains in northeast Victoria.

A mountain of threats

Species restricted to a small area are vulnerable to any loss of habitat. And fire is not the only threat to the Kaputar rock skink.

Climate change is a big concern. While many species respond to increasing temperatures by migrating uphill to cooler climes, that’s not possible for the skink, which is already precariously perched on a summit.

Read more: Sure, save furry animals after the bushfires – but our river creatures are suffering too

Introduced goats may also be taking a toll as they trample through the rocky terrain.

Evidence suggests humans are also a disturbance to the Kaputar rock skink’s habitat. The reptiles live close to the edge of cliff lines that are readily accessible by walking tracks. Trampling of low vegetation has been observed at many sites, as have disturbed rocks – the latter possibly from people wanting to find and photograph the species.

Where to now?

Scientists know relatively little about the Kaputar rock skink. One thing we’re sure of, though, is that the species’ existence is threatened.

Surveys are needed at known skink locations, as well as surrounding areas where it might lie undiscovered. Understanding where the species occurs and how it responds to fires, drought and other disturbances is critical to conservation efforts.

Read more: Our field cameras melted in the bushfires. When we opened them, the results were startling

Of course it’s the middle of winter now, so the skinks may not be very active on their cold mountain top. But my colleagues and I hope to travel to Mount Kaputar soon to survey the skink’s habitat and find out how the species fared.

It’s just months since science officially welcomed the Kaputar rock skink to the world. It’s far too early to say goodbye.

Dane Trembath, an Australian Museum biologist with a focus on reptiles, contributed to this article.

– ref. A few months ago, science gave this rare lizard a name – and it may already be headed for extinction – https://theconversation.com/a-few-months-ago-science-gave-this-rare-lizard-a-name-and-it-may-already-be-headed-for-extinction-140356

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa Matisoo-Smith, Professor of Biological Anthropology, University of Otago

How did the Polynesian peoples come to live on the far-flung islands of the Pacific? The question has intrigued researchers for centuries.

Norwegian explorer Thor Heyerdahl brought the topic to public attention when he sailed a balsa-wood raft called the Kon-Tiki from Peru to Polynesia in 1947. His goal was to demonstrate such voyages were possible, supporting theories linking Polynesian origins to the Americas.

Decades of research in archaeology, linguistics and genetics now show that Polynesian origins lie to the west, ultimately in the islands of southeast Asia. However, the myth of migrations from America has lingered in folk science and on conspiracy websites.

New evidence for American interlopers?

A new study published in Nature reports genetic evidence of Native American ancestry in several Polynesian populations. The work, by Alexander Ioannidis and colleagues, is based on a genetic analysis of 807 individuals from 17 island populations and 15 indigenous communities from South and Central America.

Other researchers have previously found evidence of indigenous American DNA in the genomes of the modern inhabitants of Rapa Nui. (Rapa Nui, also known as Easter Island, is the part of Polynesia closest to South America.)

The estimated timing of these interactions, however, raised concerns. Analyses of DNA from ancient Rapa Nui skeletal remains found no evidence of such mingling, or admixture. This suggests the “Amerindian” genetic component was likely introduced later via Chilean colonists.

Ioannidis and colleagues found southern South American Indigenous DNA in the genomes – the genetic material – of modern Rapa Nui, but they claim it represents a second pulse of contact. They also found signs of earlier contact, coming from as far north as Colombia or even Mexico.

More novel was the fact that this earlier signal was also found in modern DNA samples collected in the 1980s from the Marquesas and the Tuamotu archipelagos. The researchers argue this likely traces to a single “contact event” around 1200 AD, and possibly as early as 1082 AD.

Both suggested dates for this first event are earlier than those generally accepted for the settlement of Rapa Nui (1200-1250 AD). The earlier date predates any archaeological evidence for human settlement of the Marquesas or any of the other islands on which it was identified.

Ioannidis and colleagues make sense of this by suggesting that perhaps “upon their arrival, Polynesian settlers encountered a small, already established, Native American population”.

Read more: What wind, currents and geography tell us about how people first settled Oceania

Follow the kūmara

The 1200 AD date and the more northerly location of the presumed contact on the South American continent are not unreasonable. They are consistent with the presence and distribution of the sweet potato, or kūmara.

This plant from the Americas is found throughout Eastern Polynesia. It gives us the strongest and most widely accepted archaeological and linguistic evidence of contact between Polynesia and South America.

Kūmara remains about 1,000 years old have been found in the Cook Islands in central Polynesia. When Polynesian colonists settled the extremes of the Polynesian triangle – Hawai’i, Rapa Nui, and Aotearoa New Zealand – between 1200 and 1300 AD, they brought kūmara in their canoes.

So contact with the Americas by that time fits with archaeological data. The suggestion that it was Native Americans who made the voyage, however, is where we think this argument goes off the rails.

A great feat of sailing

Polynesians are among the greatest navigators and sailors in the world. Their ancestors had been undertaking voyages on the open ocean for at least 3,000 years.

Double hulled Polynesian voyaging canoes were rapidly and systematically sailing eastwards across the Pacific. They would not have stopped until they hit the coast of the Americas. Then, they would have returned home, using their well proven skills in navigation and sailing.

While Heyerdahl showed American-made rafts could make it out to the Pacific, Indigenous Americans have no history of open ocean voyaging. Similarly, there is no archaeological evidence of pre-Polynesian occupation on any of the islands of Polynesia.

Read more: Chickens tell tale of human migration across Pacific

The limitations of genetic analysis

Genetic analyses attempting to reconstruct historical events based on data from modern populations are fraught with potential sources of error. Addressing questions where only a few hundred years make a major difference is particularly difficult.

Modelling population history needs to consider demographic impacts such as the massive depopulation caused by disease and other factors associated with European colonisation.

Ioannidis and colleagues took this into account for Rapa Nui, but not for the Marquesas. Estimates of population decline in the Marquesas from 20,000 in 1840 to around 3,600 by 1902 indicate a significant bottleneck.

The choice of comparative populations was also interesting. The only non-East Polynesian Pacific population used in analyses was from Vanuatu. Taiwanese Aboriginal populations were used as representatives of the “pure” Austronesian ancestral population for Polynesians.

This is wrong and overly simplistic. Polynesian genomes themselves are inherently admixed. They result from intermarriages between people probably from a homeland in island southeast Asia (not necessarily Taiwan) and other populations encountered en route through the Pacific.

Polynesian Y chromosomes and other markers show clear evidence of admixture with western Pacific populations. Excluding other Oceanic and Asian populations from the analyses may have skewed the results. Interestingly, the amount of Native American admixture identified in the Polynesian samples correlates with the amount of European admixture found in those populations.

Finally, like many recent population genetic studies, Ioannidis and colleagues did not look at sequences of the whole genome. Instead, they used what are called single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays.

SNP arrays are designed based on genetic variation identified through studies of primarily Asian, African and European genomes. Very few Pacific or other indigenous genomes were included in the databases used to design SNP arrays. This means variation in these populations may be misinterpreted or underestimated.

Summing up

While the results presented by Ioannidis and colleagues are very interesting, to fully understand them will require a level of scholarly engagement that may take some time.

Did contact between Polynesians and indigenous Americans happen? Significant evidence indicates that it did. Do these new data prove this? Perhaps, though there are a number of factors that need further investigation. Ideally, we would like to see evidence in ancient genetic samples. Engagement with the Pacific communities involved is also critical.

However, if the data and analyses are correct, did the process likely occur via the arrival of indigenous Americans, on their own, on an island in eastern Polynesia? This, we argue, is highly questionable.

– ref. Did ancient Americans settle in Polynesia? The evidence doesn’t stack up – https://theconversation.com/did-ancient-americans-settle-in-polynesia-the-evidence-doesnt-stack-up-142383

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ben Phillips, Associate Professor, Centre for Social Research and Methods, Director, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Australian National University

New research on disadvantage in Australia has found the gap between rich and poor is very wide in Sydney, while much of Queensland struggles with educational disadvantage and regional NSW and Victoria are both more disadvantaged when it comes to health.

Previous research on poverty has placed a heavy emphasis on income and economic outcomes at a given point in time. But disadvantage often goes beyond just economic factors. It’s also necessary to analyse the educational, health and social inequities in society to get a more accurate understanding of disadvantage.

At the core of our new research, published in our Mapping the Potential report, is the idea that disadvantage in Australia is more varied and complex than many people may think.

How we conducted our research

This research, conducted by the ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods and commissioned by Catholic Social Services Australia, expands on the socioeconomic indexes produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics by adding more detailed variables across health, education, social and economic domains.

We also incorporated a “persistence” element to disadvantage – in that, disadvantage isn’t tied to a singular point in time, but persists for a longer period.

In our research, disadvantage was data-driven. And to quantify disadvantage, we chose variables that were generally considered relevant for each area. For economic disadvantage, for instance, we looked at low incomes, low-skilled jobs and unemployment. Areas with a large share of people with these characteristics tended to be more disadvantaged.

Health disadvantage was based on various chronic health conditions, such as diabetes, heart and circulatory conditions, and obesity.

Educational disadvantage focused on levels of educational attainment and child educational disadvantage – both cognitive and physical development. We used data from the Australian Educational Development Census to gauge this.

Social disadvantage was less clearly defined. We focused on variables that contribute to social capital, or the interpersonal networks that help a society function effectively. Regions with social disadvantage, for example, tended to have low rates of volunteering, internet connection and social cohesion.

Geographically, we analysed these variables at the SA2 level (areas comprised roughly of suburbs and towns) across Australia. We then aggregated the results to the federal electorate level to avoid singling out and possibly stigmatising individual suburbs.

For comparison purposes, each index was standardised to an average score of 1,000 across all SA2s. Nearly all SA2s (95%) had a score between 800 (high disadvantaged) and 1,200 (low disadvantage).

To better understand differences between our major populations, we further aggregated our results to nine larger geographic entities: the five major capitals, the regional areas of NSW, Queensland and Victoria and a “catch all” remainder of Australia region. This last grouping was used due to the small number of electorates in some states and territories.

The most disadvantaged parts of Australia

The key finding of the report is there is considerable variation in the types of disadvantage experienced across Australia. Moreover, the types of disadvantage varied between locations, as well.

Australia’s most disadvantaged electorate overall was Hinkler in regional Queensland. Hinkler ranks poorly in three of the disadvantage domains we tracked: health, economic and social.

Australia’s least disadvantaged electorate is North Sydney.

When we looked at each type of disadvantage individually, we found that electorates had very different needs.

From an economic perspective, for example, our most disadvantaged electorate is Blaxland in Western Sydney. Our most disadvantaged health electorate is Braddon in regional Tasmania.

The most disadvantaged educationally was Spence in the northern suburbs of Adelaide. Socially, the most disadvantaged electorate was Parkes in regional NSW.

When comparing the larger regions in our report, we found Adelaide faces the most disadvantage overall, while Sydney and Perth have, on average, the least overall disadvantage.

Even the best-performing regions have pockets of high disadvantage. For example, while Sydney has a relatively strong overall result, it also has the most economically disadvantaged electorate in Australia (Blaxland) and several suburbs with scores below 800.

The research also shows the vast disparities between urban and regional areas in Australia. For example, according to our data, nearly the whole of regional NSW is considered disadvantaged. In contrast, the inner suburbs of Sydney are much better-off.

Most concerning was the deep level of disadvantage found in predominantly Indigenous communities, mostly in the Northern Territory. The electorate of Lingiari, for instance, has a marked split between the relatively advantaged suburbs around Darwin and the deeply disadvantaged areas outside the city.

We also found a number of electorates in coastal NSW, Queensland and Tasmania with significant health disadvantage. This is concerning given the threat of future outbreaks of COVID-19.

Read more: Educational disadvantage is a huge problem in Australia – we can’t just carry on the same

Why this data matters

The indexes remind us that despite nearly 30 years of continued economic growth in Australia, prosperity has not come to all parts of the country. Nor is economic advantage necessarily an indication of other facets of well-being, such as educational or health equality.

This data is important because it can help non-profit organisations make better-informed decisions on where and how to allocate future resources and investments.

It will also help governments at all levels gain a deeper understanding of the types of disadvantage that exist within regions and how their programs and other methods of assistance – both financial or non-financial – can be most effective.

Read more: New evidence suggests we may need to rethink policies aimed at poverty

– ref. Where are the most disadvantaged parts of Australia? New research shows it’s not just income that matters – https://theconversation.com/where-are-the-most-disadvantaged-parts-of-australia-new-research-shows-its-not-just-income-that-matters-132428

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Peters, Associate Professor of Wildlife Health and Pathology, Charles Sturt University

This article is part of Flora, Fauna, Fire, a special project by The Conversation that launched this week. The project tracks the recovery of Australia’s native plants and animals after last summer’s bushfire tragedy. Explore the project here and read related articles here.

I looked through the microscope at the insides of a dead smoky mouse, and could barely believe my eyes. Thousands of tiny smoke particles lined its lungs. But the mouse had been kept more than 50 kilometres from the nearest bushfires. How could this be?

As it turned out, the critically endangered mouse had died from smoke inhalation. Some 45 had been held at a captive breeding facility near Canberra. Nine ultimately died – the first recorded wildlife in the world killed by bushfire smoke far outside a fire zone.

The deaths were a blow for conservation efforts. But in recent weeks, there’s been good news: smoky mice have been spotted at seven sites burnt in the fires. For now, at least, the species lives on.

A unique, bulgy-eyed rodent

The smoky mouse is shy, gentle and small – usually about nine centimetres in body length, plus its tail. They are rather cute, with bulgy eyes and very soft grey fur which inspired the species’ name.

In the wild, the smoky mouse is limited to a few sites in Victoria’s Grampians and East Gippsland, as well as in Kosciuszko National Park in New South Wales. It lives in underground communal nests, in heath and forest habitats.

Read more: After the bushfires, we helped choose the animals and plants in most need. Here’s how we did it

Ancestors of the smoky mouse arrived in Australia more than five million years ago when the Australian continent finally drifted close enough to Southeast Asia for rodents to raft across.

These ancient rodents diversified into more than 50 species. Many, like the smoky mouse, are in decline. Others, like the white-footed rabbit-rat have already become extinct.

Several threats are reducing smoky mouse numbers, but feral cats and foxes are a major cause.

Death by irony?

Some 119 animal species were identified for urgent conservation intervention following the fires. The smoky mouse was among them. Modelling showed 26% of its distribution overlapped with burnt areas, and in NSW more than 90% of the species’ habitat burned.

I am a wildlife health and pathology expert based in Wagga Wagga in NSW, and part of my job is to diagnose why animals have died. The first dead smoky mouse I encountered had come from a Canberra breeding facility. It was sent by a vet and arrived via courier in mid-January.

In a note attached, the vet suggested bushfire smoke had killed the smoky mouse – and asked, in a nod to the species’ name, if this was a case of “death by irony”.

Canberra, like many other cities and towns, was shrouded in thick smoke in January. But the breeding facility was more than 50 kilometres from the nearest fire zone, so I thought the vet’s theory was unlikely.

When I and other veterinary pathologists examined organs of the mouse under the microscope, the only abnormality we could find was fluid and congestion in the mouse’s lungs.

Over the following month, eight more smoky mice died. I inspected the lungs of one – to my shock, it contained thousands of brown smoke particles. Once I knew the distribution of particles to look for, I found them in most of the other dead mice too.

The mice didn’t die immediately after inhaling the smoke. They hung on, but when temperatures in Canberra spiked at more than 40℃, they went into respiratory distress and died.

Read more: A season in hell: bushfires push at least 20 threatened species closer to extinction

Death from smoke inhalation has long been suspected in wildlife. But it’s poorly recorded because after bushfires, the bodies of dead animals are usually incinerated or too decomposed to make a diagnosis.

The smoky mouse case shows bushfire smoke can damage wild animals far beyond fire zones. That means the impact of bushfires on wildlife may be greater than we thought.

A bit of good news

There is hope for the smoky mouse. Motion-sensing cameras set up in Kosciuszko National Park after the fires have recorded smoky mice at seven burnt sites. Over the next year, more sites will be surveyed to better understand how many individuals remain, and where they live.

Most smoky mice at the Canberra captive breeding facility survived, and there are plans to release some into the wild. This captive breeding program has also been identified as a priority for federal funding.

But as global warming escalates, fires in Australia are predicted to become even worse. Now more than ever, the future of the smoky mouse, along with many other Australian animals, hinges on decisive climate action. Captive breeding programs and blind hope will not be enough.

Read more: Conservation scientists are grieving after the bushfires — but we must not give up

– ref. ‘Death by irony’: The mystery of the mouse that died of smoke inhalation, but went nowhere near a fire – https://theconversation.com/death-by-irony-the-mystery-of-the-mouse-that-died-of-smoke-inhalation-but-went-nowhere-near-a-fire-139906

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wee Tiong Seah, Associate Professor in Mathematics Education, University of Melbourne

On Sunday, Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews announced government school students in prep to Year 10 in metropolitan Melbourne and the Mitchell Shire will learn from home for term three. The remote learning period will run from July 20 until at least August 19, and will follow five pupil-free days scheduled for this week.

Students in Years 11 and 12, as well as those in Year 10 attending schools for VCE or VCAL classes, and students with special needs, will resume face-to-face learning today.

Many independent schools had already decided, before the premier’s announcement, they will resume remote learning this week.

We conducted a national survey from April 27 until May 25 of more than 1,200 teachers’ experiences during Australia’s first wave of remote learning. Based on teachers’ responses, we know a sustainable return to remote learning must ensure schools and the government address the concerns around the social and emotional impacts on students, accessibility, and increasing workloads for teachers.

Social development and emotional well-being

Around the same number of teachers said the remote learning period had a positive (33%), negative (36%) or neither positive nor negative (31%), impact on students’ educational progress. But most of them expressed concerns about the impact on students’ social development and emotional well-being.

More than half (58%) of all teachers were concerned about students’ social development. Meanwhile, 68% of primary school and 79% of secondary school teachers felt remote learning was having a negative impact on students’ emotional well-being.

These results were fairly consistent across state capitals, regional and rural areas, as well as across government (73.6%), Catholic (76.5%) and independent (78.2%) schools.

One teacher said

it is the social-emotional well-being of our young people, particularly those at risk in their homes, that is my biggest concern.

Schools play a critical role in supporting student well-being. Feelings of isolation can have serious negative impacts such as increased stress, anxiety and disengagement. It is important there are strategies for maintaining a strong teacher presence online.

Teachers said the level of support students received for remote learning varied depending on the students’ home environment. Some vulnerable students can completely disengage from the school system and we have seen this increased vulnerability during remote learning.

Read more: Disadvantaged students may have lost 1 month of learning during COVID-19 shutdown. But the government can fix it

Some students didn’t attend live lessons, disguised attendance by only logging in but without video or audio, or did not submit work. Use of learning analytics to assist in tracking student access would be beneficial during remote learning.

In some cases, remote learning issues disrupted the capacity for teachers to provide additional support, despite repeated attempts to communicate with students and their families.

Schools play a critical role in supporting engagement and maintaining essential connections, routines and supports during a pandemic, and during recovery.

During the lockdown, schools and the government must take urgent measures to address student well-being. Teachers need support to identify and help students with high needs. They need professional learning programs to help them navigate this territory.

Not everyone is equal

In 2019, 87% of Australians could access the internet at home. But only 68% of Australian children aged 5 to 14 living in disadvantaged communities had internet access at home, compared to 91% of students living in advantaged communities.

In our survey, 49.45% of teachers reported all of their students had access to devices, while 43.28% indicated most of their students had access.

Fewer primary teachers (37.46%) than secondary teachers (56.25%) indicated all their students had access to devices.

Some students had to share devices with other family members, a few used their phones and some didn’t have any access to technology at all. For those who had access to devices, there were other challenges, such as the availability and reliability of apps and programs, with parents and teachers trying to troubleshoot IT problems.

Read more: Schools are moving online, but not all children start out digitally equal

A teacher said one of the challenges was “the large amount of disadvantaged families that [the] school serves [where] most don’t have access to three meals a day”.

Increasing the number of loan devices to students is essential during the upcoming remote learning period, as are engaging and interactive lessons. But it’s also important to plan for accessible tasks that aren’t internet-dependent, for those who don’t have ready access – such as school packs or the possibility of attending school.

During the first wave of remote learning, some telecommunications companies provided relief by waiving internet charges or extending data access limits. The government can play a more active role by working with internet providers to ensure further access to this kind of support is available.

Reasonable work expectations

In our survey, 68% of primary teachers and 75% of secondary teachers reported working more hours than usual during the lockdown period. Nearly 50% worked more than six hours extra a week and 19% worked between 11-15 hours extra per week.

Teachers reported increased stress levels, isolation, excessive screen time and exhaustion.

One teacher said there were

unrealistic expectations of teachers — using multiple platforms concurrently with very little training. The time to prepare per class is limited yet we are supposed to provide technologically advanced methods of delivery.

As a priority, setting realistic expectations for teachers, students and parents will ensure the workload is reasonable and manageable.

Remote teaching is not equivalent to classroom teaching and the same content will not be covered in the same amount of time online. Good teaching and curriculum design will soon address any gaps in learning once students are back in the classroom. But the social and emotional impacts could have a more negative impact in the longer term.

Read more: Students won’t get through all school content while learning at home: here are 3 things to prioritise

– ref. Students in Melbourne will go back to remote schooling. Here’s what we learnt last time and how to make it better – https://theconversation.com/students-in-melbourne-will-go-back-to-remote-schooling-heres-what-we-learnt-last-time-and-how-to-make-it-better-142550

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Phillippa Carnemolla, Senior Research Fellow, School of the Built Environment, University of Technology Sydney

The stated purpose of the Morrison government’s HomeBuilder program is to stimulate the economy and create construction jobs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our research shows home improvements could do much more than just add capital value and a spare room. They can also restore or maintain a person’s ability to live independently – whether they are older, have a disability, are unwell or have been injured.

In other words, these home improvements could transform life for any one of us at some point in our lives. They greatly improve people’s well-being and reduce dependence on carers. This affects a great many people – including nearly a million who receive some form of aged care in their own home.

Read more: How can we best design housing for Australia’s ageing population?

Our study of 157 people receiving community care found home modifications reduced the overall hours of care they required by 42%. Their quality of life (measured as health-related quality of life) improved by 40%.

By reducing care needs and costs, and increasing independence and well-being, home modifications lead to a multitude of government, community and personal benefits. These include lowering the risk of COVID-19 transmission that providing and receiving personal care entails.

Read more: Confused about aged care in the home? These 10 charts explain how it works

What do home modifications involve?

Home modifications specifically help residents to live safely and independently in their own homes.

The range of possible renovations is diverse, so costs vary widely. Minor modifications might be installing a grab rail in a bathroom to aid stability, or levelling a step at a front door. A major modification could install a ramp or a lift, widen door frames or provide a new bathroom.

Modifications must be tailored to individual needs, as no “one size fits all” – just like every home renovation.

Enabling greater independence for longer

My research measures how home modifications directly influence the amount of care needed to live, and continue living, at home.

The study included 157 Australians aged from 15 to 92 who received community care. Some had arthritis, cancer or a motorcycle injury. Others were born with a disability. All required care in their home.

Read more: NDIS needs the market to help make up at least 60% shortfall in specialist disability housing

Hours of care for participants (most of it unpaid care by family and friends) were compared before and after home modifications. The changes liberated them. Home modifications reduced or eliminated their need for help, restored their confidence in caring for themselves and reduced carer stress.

As people’s confidence grew, they were happier to venture out into the broader community. Importantly, relationships improved.

Stories of lives transformed

Simple home modifications meant David* no longer had to help his mother shower as she could safely do that herself. His mother was saved the embarrassment of her son being involved in what is normally a private activity. Instead, they could enjoy each other’s company with regular activities like shopping and having afternoon tea together.

Ravi* had a spinal injury as a result of an accident. He was glad to be back at home but was sleeping in a converted sunroom at street level because he couldn’t get to his bedroom upstairs. The only bathroom for showering was a small ensuite, up three stairs.

The house was not suitable for a wheelchair, so his wife had to help him get around their home. The effort required to take care of basic daily living activities left them too exhausted to even think about going out.

An accessible bathroom with a hand-held shower was installed, as well as a ramp at the home entrance. Not only was Ravi able to shower independently again, but he and his wife also regained their energy and interest in going out. He attributed home modifications to enabling them to go to the movies and a restaurant for the first time in the three years after the accident.

Genevieve* needed to go to the toilet often at night, but was unsteady on her feet. She had to wake her husband to escort her safely to the bathroom. Installing handrails from the bedroom to the bathroom, as well as reconfiguring the bathroom, meant she could safely take herself to the toilet at night.

Now that he was getting a good night’s sleep, her husband also expressed relief that he was able to continue his full-time job – he had thought he would have to give it up.

People regain choice about where they live

The design of a house can be the single reason that forces a person into an aged care home. A bathroom, kitchen, entrance and exit, as well as how rooms connect, can all dictate whether a person lives independently in later life.

Read more: Meet the nonagenarians: people in their 90s are Australia’s fastest growing senior age group

Research shows how home modifications reduce fall risks. Think about an older bathroom where the shower has a hob or is over a bath. Such features commonly lead to falls, which can dramatically shorten lives or send us straight from hospital into residential aged care.

Of all the home modifications, my research showed those in the bathroom were most central to reducing dependence on others. They provided the freedom to shower and use the toilet without help.

For example, Heath* was 72 with a few overlapping health conditions. He had lost confidence using his shower and toilet on his own. His daughter, who lived five hours’ drive away, was convinced he would fall if he remained at home.

But Heath didn’t want someone coming in to help him shower. He absolutely did not want to go into a nursing home. Home modifications meant he could sit while showering independently and use grab rails to get in and out safely.

Modifications protect lives in a pandemic

The ability to take care of our own bathroom needs during a pandemic is particularly critical. The close proximity required to receive and provide care has been well documented. Who knows how much home modifications have helped to curb the spread of COVID-19 to people most vulnerable to it?

Australia is managing a pandemic while rolling out the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) and reforming aged care in the context of a diverse and ageing population.

This research into home modifications highlights why renovations could be so much more than a new pool, kitchen island or cinema room. The government has a golden opportunity to reform HomeBuilder and encourage take-up of grants for home modifications. It would be a win for both tradies and the many Australians who may need help to stay at home.

* Names have been changed to protect anonymity.

– ref. Renovations as stimulus? Home modifications can do so much more to transform people’s lives – https://theconversation.com/renovations-as-stimulus-home-modifications-can-do-so-much-more-to-transform-peoples-lives-140639

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Davidson, Adjunct Senior Lecturer, UNSW

Suddenly, the idea of a “job guarantee” is back in vogue.

Lawyer, academic, land rights activist and founder of the Cape York Institute Noel Pearson has come out of it favour of it, University of Newcastle labour market specialist Bill Mitchell has a document before the prime minister, and the Per Capita think tank is pushing for a youth-only guarantee.

The idea is that the government would make an unconditional job offer at a minimum wage to anyone willing and able to work. There would be no need for the Newstart unemployment benefit (now called JobSeeker).

Read more: Forget JobSeeker. In our post-COVID economy, Australia needs a ‘liveable income guarantee’ instead

The buffer of jobs on offer would “normally be small and would shrink as private sector activity recovers”.

It is not widely known that it’s been tried before, by the Keating government in 1994. The scheme was limited to the long-term unemployed, making it more manageable than a scheme that offered employment to everyone who was unemployed.

Working Nation

The centrepiece of Working Nation, unveiled by Prime Minister Paul Keating in February 1994, the so-called “Job Compact” guaranteed subsidised employment for six to 12 months to everyone who had been unemployed for more than 18 months.

This article draws on my research into what happened, including interviews with senior government officials from that time.

By late 1993 300,000 people had been reliant on unemployment payments for more than 12 months.

The idea was that paid work experience in regular jobs would improve their chances of securing unsubsidised jobs by renewing their confidence and skills, and instilling confidence in employers about their ability to work.

We started off wanting to guarantee the long-term unemployed a job. We thought that’s what this agenda was all about (official, department of prime minister and cabinet)

The original plan was for most of the job placements (70%) to be offered through a private sector wage subsidy scheme, Jobstart, which had a good record for placing people in ongoing jobs.

The other jobs would be provided through the New Work Opportunities program (which offered community organisations a 100% wage subsidy to employ people fulltime for six months) and Jobskills (which offered a combination of part time paid employment and training run by community organisations).

When fewer private employers than expected took on Jobstart wage subsidies (134,000 in 1995) the job guarantee could only be fulfilled by expanding public and community sector jobs (to 123,000 positions).

As has been the case in other overseas public sector job creation schemes, these jobs often turned out to be very different to mainstream jobs, reducing transitions to unsubsidised jobs.

And as the number of subsidised jobs ballooned, their quality declined. And instead of case managers matching jobs and experience to needs, the process became a conveyor belt.

There was some dissatisfaction even within the department of prime minister and cabinet about how it was going. It appeared to be going the [old] way of not treating people as individuals, just putting people into any program that was coming along (official, department of prime minister and cabinet)

And the language of the program became increasingly punitive.

You often start with a great idea and later it gets modified. Focus groups showed the public were really down on the unemployed and sole parents. That got reflected back in the ‘reciprocal obligation’ language, which was not how we originally had it (official, department of prime minister and cabinet)

Only one third of the participants were in unsubsidised jobs three months after the subsidies ended. The official evaluation of the “net impact” of the program (the extent to which it increased the probability of employment) was a 28% improvement from Jobstart, 11% for Jobskills and 4% for New Work Opportunities.

‘High cost, low outcomes’

The Job Compact was expected to reduce the number of people on unemployment benefits for more than 18 months by 50% in its first year, but the actual decline was less than 20%.

The official evaluation pointed to its “high cost and low outcomes”, and concluded it was “not the most appropriate strategy for assisting the long-term unemployed”.

It said subsidised public sector jobs should be created only to help “the most disadvantaged clients who may not meet the job readiness requirements of many private employers”.

Read more: When the Coronavirus Supplement stops, JobSeeker needs to increase by $185 a week

Right now, 700,000 people have been on unemployment benefits for more than a year, making the case for some sort of large-scale investment in paid work experience and training strong.

Subsidised jobs can help reduce long-term unemployment, as shown by the success of the Future Jobs Fund in the Britain and small-scale wage subsidy schemes in Australia.

Britain’s Conservative Government has just announced plans to generate 350,000 subsidised community jobs for unemployed young people.

But Australia’s experience with the Job Compact shows guarantees are no panacea.

Subsidised jobs help, but they’re no panacea

When subsidised jobs schemes are scaled up to offer jobs to everyone who is unemployed, their costs increase and their quality and their impact on future employability diminish.

We will need large-scale programs to create jobs, and we should offer the 700,000 people who are already long-term unemployed all the help they need to secure them.

But that needn’t always mean subsidised jobs. Many who are unemployed will benefit from training, others from their employment service provider partnering with an employer to skill them up.

Higher unemployment is a price we’ve paid to control the virus. It will take a mix of measures to ensure that cost is only temporary.

– ref. There’s serious talk about a “job guarantee”, but it’s not that straightforward – https://theconversation.com/theres-serious-talk-about-a-job-guarantee-but-its-not-that-straightforward-140632

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ann Kayis-Kumar, Senior Lecturer and Tax Clinic Director, School of Taxation & Business Law, UNSW

For some people tax time will result in no tax paid this year, and if past years are anything to go by, about 50 of them will be millionaires.

Not mere millionaires, but millionaires earning more than A$1 million per year.

For some of these 50 or so very high earners, managing tax will be expensive. The two dozen or so that typically claim deductions for the “cost of managing tax affairs” claim an average of about $1.7 million each.

It might have been with this in mind that during last year’s election campaign Labor promised to cap the size of the deduction people could claim for “managing tax affairs”. The proposed cap was $3,000.

Tax agents would still be able to charge more than $3,000 – a lot more if they want to, even an additional million or more – but their clients would only be able to deduct $3,000 of it from their income when submitting their tax return.

Labor wanted to cap deductions

The rationale was straightforward: if people are claiming over $1 million in deductions on money spent managing their taxes, then putting a ceiling on those deductions ought to stop it.

Not so fast.

Often in tax we plug holes quickly rather than stepping back and looking at the whole system and its interactions. And then we have to plug another one.

The question to ask first is whether capping this individual line item would prevent or move the leakage.

We went to the source by conducting a nationwide survey of Australia’s most senior tax professionals to glean their perspectives.

Our findings reflect the views of people who, to paraphrase Mandy Rice Davies, “would say that, wouldn’t they”.

It might not have worked

Nonetheless, the detail of what they told us was surprising.

Here’s what they said.

• Most of the targets would be unaffected. They would be able to switch their deductions into associated corporate entities. This interchangeability of personal and corporate tax deductions highlights the importance of considering the system as a whole.

• Because of this it might, counter-intuitively, have the opposite effect to what was intended, creating a saturation where the truly wealthy could escape the cap, but those of lesser means could not.

• A better solution would be for the tax office to conduct more tax audits. Studies suggest the decisions of high wealth individuals to engage in aggressive tax planning practices are strongly influenced by the probability of being selected for audit.

• There are definitional ambiguities in relation to the subcomponents of the deduction that make it hard to work out what is going on. Sometimes “litigation” includes tax planning, other times it does not. “Other” is a grab bag that can include software costs, travel costs and reference material. It would help if the tax office provided guidance.

• High wealth individuals often employ tax advisers to cope with complexity and uncertainty of the tax system rather than to reduce tax.

As we said, you are welcome to consider the possibility that the observations of the tax professionals are self-serving, but their overwhelming embrace of more tax audits and their pleas for the tax law to be easier to understand also suggest a keenness to ensure that taxpayers do the right thing.

Read more: Be careful what you claim for when working from home. There are capital gains tax risks

Labor’s proposal to cap the deduction for the cost of managing tax affairs at $3,000 (when for most people the deduction is closer to $300) was understandable, although it might not have worked as intended.

It was a reminder of the oft-quoted maxim that for every problem there is a solution that is simple, neat – and wrong.

For further details, please see: Kayis-Kumar A, Evans C and Lim Y, To cap or not to cap? Policy options for dealing with the costs of managing tax affairs deduction in Australia (2020) 35(2) Australian Tax Forum.

– ref. Yes, there are millionaires who pay no tax, but crimping deductions mightn’t help – https://theconversation.com/yes-there-are-millionaires-who-pay-no-tax-but-crimping-deductions-mightnt-help-139279

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Philip C. Almond, Emeritus Professor in the History of Religious Thought, The University of Queensland

From the 11th century onwards, the Legend of Barlaam and Josaphat enjoyed a popularity in the medieval West attained perhaps by no other legend. It was available in over 60 versions in the main languages of Europe, the Christian East and Africa. It was most familiar to English leaders from its inclusion in William Caxton’s 1483 translation of the Golden Legend.

Little did European readers know that the story they loved of the life of Saint Josaphat was in fact that of Siddhartha Gautama, the Buddha, the founder of Buddhism.

The ascetic life

According to the legend, there reigned in India a king called Abenner, immersed in the pleasures of the world. When the king had a son, Josaphat, an astrologer predicted he would forsake the world. To forestall this outcome, the king ordered a city to be built for his son from which were excluded poverty, disease, old age and death.

But Josaphat made journeys outside of the city where he encountered, on one occasion, a blind man and a horribly deformed one and, on another occasion, an old man weighed down by illness. He realised the impermanence of all things:

No longer is there any sweetness in this transitory life now that I have seen these things […] Gradual and sudden death are in league together.

While experiencing this spiritual crisis, the sage Barlaam from Sri Lanka reached Josaphat and told him of the rejection of worldly pursuits and the acceptance of the Christian ideal of the ascetic life. Prince Josaphat was converted to Christianity and began to practise the ideal of the spiritual life of poverty, simplicity and devotion to God.

To forestall his quest, his father surrounded him with seductive maidens who “tantalised him with every kind of temptation with which they sought to arouse his appetites”.

Josaphat resisted them all.

After the death of his father, Josaphat remained determined to continue his ascetic life and abdicated the throne. He journeyed to Sri Lanka in search of Barlaam. After a quest lasting two years, Josaphat found Barlaam living in the mountains and joined him there in a life of asceticism until his death.

A great saint

Barlaam and Josaphat were included in the calendars of saints in both the Western and Eastern churches. By the 10th century, they were included in the calendars of the Eastern churches, and by the end of the 13th century in those of the Catholic church.

In the book we know as The Travels of Marco Polo, published around the year 1300, Marco gave the West its first account of the life of the Buddha. He declared that — were the Buddha a Christian — “he would have been a great saint […] for the good life and pure which he led”.

Read more: Netflix ‘Chinese Game of Thrones’ charts the life of Marco Polo – so who was he?

In 1446, an astute editor of the Travels noticed the similarity. “This is like the life of Saint Iosaphat”, he declared.

It was, however, only in the 19th century the West became aware of Buddhism as a religion in its own right. As a result of editing and translating of the Buddhist scriptures dating (from the first century BCE) from the 1830s onwards, reliable information about the life of the founder of Buddhism began to grow in the West.

Then the West came to know the story of the young Indian prince, Gautama, whose father – fearful his son would forsake the world – kept him secluded in his palace. Like Josaphat, Gautama eventually encountered old age, disease and death. And, like Josaphat, he left the palace to live an ascetic life in quest of the meaning of suffering.

After many trials, Gautama sat beneath the Bodhi tree and finally attained enlightenment, thereby becoming a Buddha.

Only in 1869 did this new-found knowledge in the West about the life of the Buddha lead inescapably to the realisation that, in his guise as Saint Josaphat, the Buddha had been a saint in Christendom for some 900 years.

Intimate connections

How did the story of the Buddha become that of Josaphat? The process was long and complicated. Essentially, the story of the Buddha that began in India in the Sanskrit language travelled east to China, then west along the Silk Road where it was influenced by the asceticism of the religion of the Manichees.

It was then transposed into Arabic, Greek and Latin. From these Latin versions it would be translated into various European languages.

Years before the West knew anything about the Buddha, his life and the ascetic ideal which it symbolised were a positive force in the spiritual life of Christians.

The Legend of Barlaam and Josaphat demonstrates powerfully the intimate connections between Buddhism and Christianity in their commitment to the ascetic, meditative and mystical religious life.

Few Christian saints have a better claim to that title than the Buddha.

In an era where the Buddhist spirituality of “mindfulness” is very much on the Western agenda, we need to be mindful of the long and positive history of the influence of Buddhism on the West. Through the story of Barlaam and Josaphat, Buddhist spirituality has played a significant role in our Western heritage for the last one thousand years.

– ref. How the Buddha became a Christian saint – https://theconversation.com/how-the-buddha-became-a-christian-saint-142285

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Esterman, Professor of Biostatistics, University of South Australia

Victoria has recorded 288 new COVID-19 cases since yesterday, the largest daily increase we’ve seen so far.

This big jump must have the Victorian government and health authorities very concerned, especially since nearly all of these cases are under investigation, with many likely having no known source of infection.

This rapid spike in numbers is likely to be an extension of the outbreak that began with the private security guard bungle at the quarantine hotels.

The progression of this outbreak was probably compounded when nearly 1,000 people refused testing during the recent testing blitz in hotspot areas.

Read more: Metropolitan Melbourne and Mitchell Shire return to lockdown: this is just how vigilant we have to be until a COVID-19 vaccine is found

What will happen next?

Once a person has been infected with SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, it can generally take up to 14 days for symptoms to appear (if they do at all).

So cases are likely to keep increasing for the next couple of weeks, until the reintroduced restrictions take effect.

Notably, nearly half of current cases are among people under 30. This probably has a lot to do with the spread of infection within families.

It’s a positive step that residents of Melbourne’s public housing towers who have tested positive for COVID-19 will be offered the option of hotel quarantine until they are well. As much as possible, to prevent spread in families, any infected person living in crowded conditions should be moved to hospital or hotel quarantine.

Read more: Which face mask should I wear?

Knuckling down

The Victorian government has made the right move in reintroducing restrictions and now needs to pull out all stops to crush the current outbreak.

They have today taken the step of advising people in Melbourne to wear masks when they may not be able to practise physical distancing.

It’s also essential the government presents clear messaging around why the restrictions are needed, especially to communities from non-English-speaking backgrounds.

At the same time, they may need to get stricter in enforcing the various facets of their strategy. They should not allow people to refuse testing and should limit exemptions to restrictions as much as possible.

Any person found to be a contact of an infected person should be tested on entry into 14 days quarantine, and then tested again towards the end.

Will Victoria’s woes spread to other states and territories?

New South Wales and South Australia have now closed their borders with Victoria. Nonetheless, there are still many people living near Victorian border areas being granted exemptions.

Because there have been no community-acquired cases in these border areas (there was a recent case in Albury, but he was a contact of a known case), the risk at the moment is not high.

However, in the next couple of weeks, if we see community transmissions spreading outside the current greater Melbourne area, the provision of these exemptions should be re-evaluated.

I have suggested a possible strategy might be to incorporate these Victorian border towns into the states they are close to, just for the period of the epidemic. For example, to make Mildura part of South Australia and Wodonga part of New South Wales. This would be much more convenient for the populations affected, and much easier to police.

Read more: Melbourne’s lockdown came too late. It’s time to consider moving infected people outside the home

There are already epidemiologists who believe New South Wales should reimpose restrictions — though perhaps not as severe as those in Victoria — to eliminate the current steady drip of infections. I think it might be a little bit early for that, but as we’ve seen from the current situation in Victoria, it’s better to be early than late.

In the meantime, all other states and territories should be offering support to Victoria, particularly in lending staff for contact tracing.

– ref. 288 new coronavirus cases marks Victoria’s worst day. And it will probably get worse before it gets better – https://theconversation.com/288-new-coronavirus-cases-marks-victorias-worst-day-and-it-will-probably-get-worse-before-it-gets-better-142481

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Abrar Ahmad Chughtai, Epidemiologist, UNSW

Australia’s chief medical officer Paul Kelly today recommended people in Melbourne and the Mitchell Shire wear masks when leaving the house:

[…] If people have symptoms and they need to go for a test, for example, which we would definitely encourage, they should wear a mask. Other people, where physical distancing cannot be guaranteed, they should also wear a mask in Melbourne and Mitchell Shire.

However, Kelly did not say wearing masks in public in these areas would be mandatory.

Kelly’s recommendation comes after growing concern it was time for people in affected parts of Victoria to wear masks in public, when physical distancing was not possible, and with rates of community transmission rising.

Read more: Victorians, and anyone else at risk, should now be wearing face masks. Here’s how to make one

The different ways to cover your face

There are many different ways to cover your face to protect against infectious diseases, whether that’s with a bought surgical mask, one you make yourself out of cloth, or with a scarf or bandana. Each type has its pros and cons.

The idea is not only to protect other people if you have the coronavirus, but also to protect yourself from catching the virus from other people.

A surgical mask can do both, with the latest evidence coming from a major review of evidence so far of the effectiveness of a range of masks, including surgical and cloth masks.

Read more: Should I wear a mask on public transport?

The evidence prompted the World Health Organisation to strenghthen its advice on people wearing masks in public where physical distancing wasn’t possible and where community transmission was high.

No type of mask provides perfect protection. How well a mask filters out droplets from coughs and sneezes carrying the coronavirus depends on a variety of factors, including the nature of the mask itself and how it’s used.

For the public, the two major options are a surgical mask (also known as a medical mask) or a cloth mask. While you can buy respirators (known as N95 masks), these should really be reserved for health professionals.

Surgical masks

This is the type you not only see surgeons wear in hospital, but are being worn by the public in the community. They are generally blue or green. Put them on by holding by the ear loops and hooking over the ears. Make sure you cover the nose, and pull them down under the chin (see diagram below for the correct procedure of putting on and taking off a mask). Pinch the bridge to ensure a good seal around the top of the nose.

You can buy these online, or from a pharmacy, and are relatively cheap.

Many studies show surgical masks are better filters of particles from coughs and sneezes than cloth masks. You’re also less likely to get infected when wearing a surgical mask compared with a cloth mask.

Cloth masks

If you cannot find a surgical mask, then you can use a cloth mask, which people have used throughout history to protect themselves from various respiratory infections. You can either buy one ready made or make one yourself.

While it’s generally accepted cloth masks don’t do as good a job at filtering out particles from coughs and sneezes as surgical masks, new evidence shows there are several things to look out for when choosing or making a cloth mask:

• use two or three layers of fabric

• choose fabric with a high thread count (so a tighter weave, for instance from a good quality sheet is generally better than a fabric with a looser weave that you can clearly see light through)

• fabrics made with more than one type of thread (for instance cotton–silk, cotton–chiffon, or cotton–flannel) may be good choices because they provide better filtration and are more comfortable to wear

• make sure any cloth mask fits well and seals around the face.

While in an ideal world, we should wait for high quality evidence from robust trials before implementing public health measures, we also need to be pragmatic.

During the current COVID-19 pandemic, not a single country was able to manage the supply of face masks. That’s why cloth masks are an option for the public.

Cloth masks have the added advantage of not depleting stocks meant for health workers and can be re-used. You can wash them with soap and water or household detergents, or preferably in a washing machine (at 60℃). Put the mask somewhere isolated until you can wash it.

Wearing a scarf or bandana

Wearing a bandana or scarf around your face should be a last resort. That’s because it’s hard to get a good fit around your face and the cloth they are usually made from tends to have a loose weave. There have also been no studies to show they work.

But with many cases of COVID-19 arising without symptoms, a bandana or scarf may provide some protection and prevent spread of infection from sick people.

Read more: Coronavirus: how worried should I be about the shortage of face masks? Or can I just use a scarf?

How to put on and take off a mask

Whichever mask you use, it’s important you put it on, take it off and dispose of it correctly, otherwise you risk contaminating your hands and spreading the virus further.

Read more: Are you wearing gloves or a mask to the shops? You might be doing it wrong

Yes, this is a major shift

Wearing a mask in public is more common in Asia, and it’s compulsory in other parts of the world during the COVID-19 pandemic.

But for most Australians, wearing a mask in public will be a major shift in how they go about their daily lives.

Remember, this latest advice is only for parts of Australia where there are high rates of community transmission. And this needs to be combined with other interventions, like physical distancing and washing your hands.

There is no need for everyone to wear masks in public in other parts of the country where there are only a few locally transmitted cases, most cases are imported, and the risk of catching the virus is low.

– ref. Which face mask should I wear? – https://theconversation.com/which-face-mask-should-i-wear-142373

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rochelle Wynne, Director, Western Sydney Nursing & Midwifery Research Centre, Western Sydney University

Over the past week, we’ve seen a spike in the number of COVID-19 infections among health-care workers in Victoria.

This includes a doctor at Melbourne’s St Vincent’s Hospital, one staff member at Brunswick Private Hospital, nine staff members from the emergency department at Melbourne’s Northern Hospital, and two nurses at the Royal Melbourne Hospital.

Staff at several aged care facilities have also tested positive.

These cases have meant sending many health-care workers regarded as “close contacts” into home quarantine.

The Northern Hospital emergency department has reportedly had to divert patients elsewhere, while Brunswick Private Hospital (where four patients tested positive too) is closed to new admissions.

Keeping health-care workers COVID-free is critical to delivering care to those who need it during a pandemic. So as Victoria’s second wave rolls on, we need to consider what more we can do to protect our health workers.

Read more: How we’ll avoid Australia’s hospitals being crippled by coronavirus

Why might this be happening?

In the absence of a vaccine, subsequent waves of COVID-19 have always been a possibility.

Health-care workers tend not to contract COVID-19 from patients, as appropriate personal protective equipment (PPE) is used in high risk encounters.

But health-care workers are normal people commuting to work and living and interacting in communities. So it’s more likely they contract it outside work.

Undetected, they can then bring it into the hospital or other health-care setting, putting fellow staff and vulnerable patients at risk.

What are the implications for health care?

At the most basic level, the specialised health-care workforce is core to health-care delivery; without nurses, doctors and allied health staff, there’s no health-care system.

Infections in this group — whether confirmed outbreaks or suspected contamination —will reduce health-care workforce capacity.

High rates of staff off work due to COVID-19 may also increase fatigue and burnout in the remaining workforce, adding to the burden.

The greater the scope of these outbreaks, the greater the strain on the affected hospitals and the health-care system. This will be compounded as they’re faced with increased demand due to COVID-19 cases in the community.

Read more: Even in a pandemic, continue with routine health care and don’t ignore a medical emergency

Australia has had time to prepare its workforce with additional skills and capabilities in critical care. But there are always concerns regarding potential workforce shortages in the height of a pandemic, particularly in areas of specialised practice such as intensive care.

Especially in “hotspots”, as we weather this second wave, there remains a risk demand could outweigh supply.

What can the health system do to cope?

A number of possible interventions could increase system capacity and help manage demand.

This may include decreasing elective or non-urgent surgery, as we saw during the first wave of the virus.

Increasing the use of virtual models of care including phone consultations and telehealth, where appropriate, could also help ease the pressure. Quarantined frontline workers could provide virtual care through telephone support, such as helplines or other telehealth services.

Adapting care to minimise the movement and interaction of hospital staff across wards and sites is another important option. For example, some hospitals have shifted from a model where a team of doctors works across multiple wards to a small team of doctors providing care to only one ward.

Most hospitals have also set-up dedicated COVID wards to screen patients for COVID-19 at the first point of contact with the health system.

What about routine testing for health workers?

To sustain a prolonged response to this crisis we need a healthy, COVID-19 free workforce. Especially given we know many positive cases don’t experience symptoms, we should be mass testing health-care workers.

To date, we’ve seen some testing of asymptomatic health-care workers in Victoria, but it has not been commonplace.

Increased routine screening of health-care workers, with or without suspected exposure, will increase the number of days away from work while staff wait for results, reducing service capacity. But the pay-off will be greater — it will limit COVID-19 spread.

Read more: ‘The doctor will Skype you now’: telehealth may limit coronavirus spread, but there’s more we can do to protect health workers

Keeping our health-care heroes safe and well

From this week, staff at several major Melbourne hospitals have been required to wear masks at all times while at work. These precautions have previously been reserved for staff in areas of higher clinical risk such as emergency and intensive care.

This is in addition to a range of guidelines health professionals follow to minimise the spread of COVID-19, including around hand hygiene, cleaning, PPE, and keeping physical distance from patients where possible.

But the responsibility to take precautions and stop the spread falls to all of us.

Hospital patients and visitors are also being encouraged to wear face masks.

In fact, everyone in Melbourne is now advised to wear a mask in public when social distancing is not possible. Hopefully this will go some way to protecting our health-care workers and the entire community.

Read more: Health-care workers share our trauma during the coronavirus pandemic – on top of their own

– ref. Rising coronavirus cases among Victorian health workers could threaten our pandemic response – https://theconversation.com/rising-coronavirus-cases-among-victorian-health-workers-could-threaten-our-pandemic-response-142375

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

University of Canberra Vice-Chancellor and President Professor Paddy Nixon and Professorial Fellow Michelle Grattan discuss the week in politics including the return to lockdown in Victoria, National Cabinet setting to slow the flow of Australian’s returning from overseas, the Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s announcement that the government will be providing more liberalised visa conditions for citizens of Hong Kong, and Kristy McBain, the Labor candidate, winner of the Eden-Monaro by-election.

– ref. VIDEO: Michelle Grattan on the return to lockdown and Eden-Monaro – https://theconversation.com/video-michelle-grattan-on-the-return-to-lockdown-and-eden-monaro-142490

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ou Yang, Research Fellow, University of Melbourne

Donald Trump has ordered US federal agencies to bypass environmental protection laws and fast-track pipeline, highway and other infrastructure projects. Signing the executive order last month, the US president declared regulatory delays would hinder “our economic recovery from the national emergency”.

Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement for international climate action in 2017 for the same reason. The accord, he said, would undermine the US economy “and put us at a permanent disadvantage to the other countries of the world”.

Read more: The EPA has backed off enforcement under Trump – here are the numbers

This idea that environmental regulation costs jobs and hurts the economy is deeply entrenched in pro-business discourse. But it is true?

To assess the impact of greater environmental policy on economic productivity we analysed data of 22 member nations of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) between 1990 and 2007. Our results show little evidence that environmental “green tape” inhibits economic growth over the long run. The opposite, in fact.

Comparing environmental policy stringency

Past studies of the economic impact of tougher environmental policies have tended to be limited by focusing on immediate effects and looking only at individual nations. Such results are of no help to understand the long-term effects and do not allow for straightforward cross-country comparison either.

This is why we analysed cross-country data stretching over a long period. We used data up to 2007 because that is the most recent year for which the OECD provides free access to all the information we needed for our analysis.

We rated nations’ environmental policies using the OECD’s Environmental Policy Stringency Index, developed in 2014. The index calculates a single score based on polices to limit air and water pollution, reduce carbon emissions, promote renewable energy and so on.

Read more: Despite clear skies during the pandemic, greenhouse gas emissions are still rising

All 22 nations improved their stringency scores to varying degrees between 1990 and 2007. The following shows the trajectory of a few example nations – Australia, Germany, Japan and United States against the OECD average. Germany had the second-highest average score over the 17 years. Australia had the worst.

We then did complex calculations to measure what effect more stringent environmental policies had on economic productivity – the value of output obtained with one unit of input – both over the short run (one year) and the long run (after three years).

While results for individual nations varied – reflecting local circumstances – overall our results showed a consistent pattern.

In the short run environmental regulations did increase the cost of production. For example, a carbon tax would make coal more expensive, increasing the costs of things like steel production (which uses coal).

But in the long run tighter environmental policies were associated with greater productivity. This positive effect was greater in countries that took the lead on tougher environmental policies. Germany had the highest average economic productivity growth of the 22 nations.

Healthier environment

This positive association might be due to a cleaner environment in the long run increasing the quality of various “production inputs”, such as better health of workers.

For example, a significant 2017 study showed higher exposure to lead (once added to fuel and paint) in childhood was associated with lower intelligence and job status in adulthood. Bans on lead additives in the 1970s have thus contributed to a smarter workforce – a key input for economic growth, as shown by the work of 2018 Nobel economics laureate Paul Romer.

Environmental regulations may also prompt industries to focus on efficiency, improving their productivity in the long run.

Environmental winners

Our findings suggest stronger environmental protection is compatible with a stronger economy in the long run.

Indeed the evidence is mounting that not taking strong environmental action is likely to have serious economic consequences.

Research suggests, for example, that the continued destruction of natural habitats is making pandemics like COVID-19 more likely, due to pathogens crossing from wild animals to humans.

Read more: Coronavirus is a wake-up call: our war with the environment is leading to pandemics

Air and water pollution contributes to chemical body burden and disease. Industrialised farming practices have contributed to the loss of about a third of the world’s arable land over the past 40 years.

Then there’s climate change. The consequences of burning fossil fuel are no longer a distant concern. Countries around the world are counting the costs of increased or more catastrophic extreme weather events and other climate impacts.

The countries that show leadership on environmental protection will be the economic winners in the longer run. Those that don’t will be poorer for it in more ways than one.

– ref. Actually, Mr Trump, it’s stronger environmental regulation that makes economic winners – https://theconversation.com/actually-mr-trump-its-stronger-environmental-regulation-that-makes-economic-winners-132185

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hugh Breakey, President, Australian Association for Professional & Applied Ethics. Senior Research Fellow, Moral philosophy, Institute for Ethics, Governance & Law, Law Futures Centre., Griffith University

Earlier this week, 150 high-profile authors, commentators and scholars signed an open letter in Harper’s magazine claiming that “open debate and toleration of differences” are under attack. Signatories included JK Rowling, Margaret Atwood, Gloria Steinem and Noam Chomsky.

While prefacing their comments with support for current racial and social justice movements, the signatories argue there has been a weakening of the norms of open debate in favour of dogma, coercion and ideological conformity. They perceive

an intolerance of opposing views, a vogue for public shaming and ostracism, and the tendency to dissolve complex policy issues in a blinding moral certainty.

Sackings, investigations and withdrawn words

The letter’s signing by Rowling comes in the wake of widespread backlash against her controversial comments on transgender issues and womanhood.

Actor Daniel Radcliffe (“Harry Potter” himself) joined a chorus of disapproval of her comments, arguing they erased “the identity and dignity of transgender people”. Employees at Rowling’s publisher subsequently refused to work on her forthcoming book.

The Harper’s letter invoked similar cases of what it saw as punitive overreactions to unpopular views, suggesting they formed part of a larger trend:

Editors are fired for running controversial pieces; books are withdrawn for alleged inauthenticity; journalists are barred from writing on certain topics; professors are investigated for quoting works of literature in class; a researcher is fired for circulating a peer-reviewed academic study; and the heads of organizations are ousted for what are sometimes just clumsy mistakes.

The reference to editors being fired is perhaps the most well-known recent incident. Last month, the New York Times published an opinion piece by Republican Senator Tom Cotton calling for the military to provide an “overwhelming show of force” to restore order in US cities during the protests over the killing of George Floyd.

The piece’s publication attracted immediate criticism for promoting hate and putting black journalists in danger. In response, the editorial page editor emphasised the newspaper’s longstanding commitment to open debate, arguing the public would be better equipped to push back against the senator’s stance if it heard his views.

This defence failed, and within days he resigned.

Read more: In publishing Tom Cotton, the New York Times has made a terrible error of judgment

Push-back against push-back

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Harper’s letter has received spirited critique. Some commentators noted past cases where the signatories had themselves been censorious. Others argued that any perceived threat was overblown.

Indeed, the link the open letter makes between a repressive government and an intolerant society may seem a long bow to draw. There is a world of difference between the legal prohibition of speech and a wave of collective outrage on Twitter.

Yet, it is nevertheless worth considering whether important ethical outcomes are threatened in a culture of outrage, de-platforming and cancelling.

Some speech requires consequences, but which speech?

Almost everyone would agree some types of speech are beyond the pale. Racial slurs doesn’t deserve careful consideration. They require “calling out”, social censure and efforts at minimising harm.

Rather than objecting to outrage per se, the Harper’s letter asserts there is a broadening in the scope of views that attract punitive responses. This seems plausible. In recent scholarly work on the tensions between censorship and academic freedom on university campuses, both sides of the dispute acknowledge that in the current environment virtually all utterances offend someone.

Yet, perhaps there are good reasons for this broadening of scope. In each of the cases raised in the letter, there were seemingly sensible reasons for applying social sanctions. These included judgements that:

• the speech was morally wrongful

• the speech was gravely offensive

• the speech would have seriously worrying consequences. It was “unhelpful”, “harmful”, “damaging” or “divisive”.

For someone who is genuinely concerned that speech is wrong in these ways, it will seem not just morally permissible to take action against the speaker. It will feel obligatory.

Read more: No, you’re not entitled to your opinion

Caution about consequences

But several concerns arise when we attach punitive consequences to people’s speech based on its perceived moral wrongfulness (as opposed to simply arguing it is mistaken or false).

First, claims of moral wrongfulness in a debate assume immediate urgency and distract from the debate itself. For example, let’s say in a debate about immigration, one person says something that offends another. Discussion of the original issue (immigration) will be bracketed until the issue of moral wrongdoing (the perceived slight or offence) is resolved.

Second (except in obvious cases), claims about wrongfulness, offensiveness and harmfulness are all open to debate. As philosopher John Stuart Mill once observed:

The usefulness of an opinion is itself a matter of opinion: as disputable, as open to discussion, and requiring discussion as much, as the opinion itself.

Third, allegations of wrongdoing create heat. Few people respond constructively to allegations of wrongdoing. They often retaliate in kind, escalating the conflict.

In a less politicised environment, a contentious claim might be treated as a contribution to a debate to be considered on its merits. But in our current climate, the same claim creates only angry allegations flying in both directions. As a result, the claim isn’t considered or debated.

Should this worry us?

If we think a person’s view is wrong and immoral, we might suppose there is no great loss about a debate being derailed. But there are genuine ethical concerns here.

First, public deliberation is a source of legitimacy. The fact that different views are widely heard and inclusively considered provides a reason for accepting collective decisions.

Democracy itself assumes citizens can hear different arguments, evidence and perspectives. If significant parts of the political spectrum are no longer tolerated, then social institutions lose this important type of legitimacy.

Read more: Actually, it’s OK to disagree. Here are 5 ways we can argue better

Second, listening to others with different opinions, and engaging with them, can help us understand their views and develop more informed versions of our own positions.

On the flip side, being consistently outraged by opposing viewpoints provides a ready reason not to consider them. This feeds directly into confirmation bias and group-think.

Third, shaming people can cause a “persuasive boomerang” to occur. When people feel others are trying to control them, they can become even more attached to the view others are trying to combat.

None of these concerns categorically rule out attaching punishing consequences to hateful or harmful speech. But they do imply the open letter has a point worth serious attention. Seeing mistaken views as intolerable speech carries genuine ethical costs.

– ref. Is cancel culture silencing open debate? There are risks to shutting down opinions we disagree with – https://theconversation.com/is-cancel-culture-silencing-open-debate-there-are-risks-to-shutting-down-opinions-we-disagree-with-142377

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonathan Connor, Lecturer, James Cook University

While many people may enjoy a game of backyard cricket, only a few go on to become elite professional batsmen in Australia.

Cricket batting is example of what human skills can achieve. The fastest bowling delivery speeds can exceed 150km/h. That leaves a batsman with less than half a second to react.

And to complicate the challenge even further, the environment and pitch they play on can change the trajectory of the delivery every time.

Read more: Why does crowd noise matter?

To find out what gives elite cricketers the edge we interviewed eight expert high-performance international or state-level coaches, who themselves were batsmen at those levels.

We asked them a series of questions to capture the skills they saw as underpinning batting expertise. The results were published recently in PLOS ONE.

While the sample was small, there are not many people who were both elite-level players and coaches, so the research provides a unique understanding of the skills needed to become an expert in their field.

Learn to adapt and know your limits

A key finding of our study is that cricket batting can be viewed, at least in the minds of expert batsmen, as a battle for a sense of control of the game.

To gain this sense of control, batsmen must possess the skills to assess all the key environmental conditions, such as the opposition bowler’s plan, the pace of the ball off the pitch, and whether the situation of the game requires scoring or surviving.

An expert batsman’s ability to read these conditions and then adapt their strategy and technique was grounded in an understanding of their own game. One said:

You have to be adaptable to change the momentum of the innings – whether that is by batting through an hour or whether it is counter-attacking during a period.

But it’s not just about knowledge of their own strengths, it’s also about their limitations. As another said:

So if you get on a tough wicket … you’ve got to have the decision-making and planning and discipline to say, right now I can’t do that today, or, I can’t do that for the first hour or two; until the balls a bit older, or the wicket’s a bit flatter, or the ball is a bit closer to me.

Being able to accurately assess the opposition’s plan and the pitch conditions, and adapt accordingly, is no easy feat, and it doesn’t always go to plan.

A batsman’s worst enemy, as any sportsperson knows, can sometimes be themselves. The high-stakes, high-pressure situation within a game can create anxiety, clouding the ability to read the conditions, and have a negative impact on decision-making.

So as cricketers we miss them all the time (a perceived scoring shot), and you have to just reset and refocus.

Routines and reflection

How expert batsmen continually assess the state of the game and keep their emotions in check comes down to what they do between deliveries.

A very important part of batting is … what you think about, and how you let the previous (ball) go, and then prepare (yourself) to be ready for the next one.

Expert batsmen highlighted these periods in between deliveries as crucial. They engaged in a process of reflection to update their knowledge of the key environmental conditions, such as the pitch or the way the opposition bowled.

A brief switch-off period between deliveries was also highlighted as crucial to help overcome mental and physical fatigue during performances that can stretch for hours or across days.

To help with that process, expert players develop routines.

Everybody has a routine. When I talk to people, particularly good players, their routines aren’t that dissimilar. There is a physical aspect to it, at the end of each ball they have a break so they might walk down the pitch and pat down imaginary things, or they might walk out towards square leg, just take a few steps away and walk back in again.

Now you know what’s happening next time you see a batsman walk about the pitch between play.

We can all learn from elite players

Traditionally in sport, expertise has been thought of as the attainment of near-flawless technical abilities. But at the professional level that’s what all players from both sides are hoping to achieve.

Read more: Video explainer: How cricket captains make good decisions

For those players to have the edge, our research shows technical ability is only part of the game. The ability to be flexible, learn and adapt to each environment is seen as critical, including the ability to learn from any mistakes.

Taking that time to reflect on what just happened is crucial. And what happens between each delivery can sometimes be just as important as how they play the delivery itself.

Incorporating these ideas within any coaching practices, be it sport or something else, could greatly benefit the development of any expertise.

– ref. Howzat! We can all learn from elite batsmen, and not just about cricket – https://theconversation.com/howzat-we-can-all-learn-from-elite-batsmen-and-not-just-about-cricket-142280

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lee Baumgartner, Professor of Fisheries and River Management, Institute for Land, Water, and Society, Charles Sturt University

This article is a preview of Flora, Fauna, Fire, a multimedia project launching on Monday July 13. The project tracks the recovery of Australia’s native plants and animals after last summer’s bushfire tragedy. Sign up to The Conversation’s newsletter for updates.

The unprecedented intensity and scale of Australia’s recent bushfires left a trail of destruction across Australia. Millions of hectares burned and more than a billion animals were affected or died. When the rains finally arrived, the situation for many fish species went from dangerous to catastrophic.

A slurry of ash and mud washed into waterways, turning freshwater systems brown and sludgy. Oxygen levels plummeted and water quality deteriorated rapidly.

Hundreds of thousands of fish suffocated. It was akin to filling your fish tank with mud and expecting your goldfish to survive.

Take, for example, the plight of the endangered Macquarie perch (Macquaria australasica), an Australian native freshwater fish of the Murray-Darling river system.

Read more: Fish kills and undrinkable water: here’s what to expect for the Murray Darling this summer

A special fish

Macquarie perch were once one of the most abundant fish in the Murray-Darling Basin. Revered by the community and once responsible for supporting extensive Indigenous, recreational, commercial and subsistence fisheries, they are an iconic species found nowhere else in the world. However, they have very specific needs.

Macquarie perch like rocky river sections with clear, fast-flowing water, shaded by trees and bushes on the banks.

Massive change wrought on our rivers over the past century means Macquarie perch are now only found at a handful of locations in the Murray-Darling Basin.

One habitat – Mannus Creek near the NSW Snowy Mountains – is particularly special because it was relatively pristine before the fires. In fact, this creek contained the last population of the threatened Macquarie perch in the NSW Murray catchment. A study in 2017 found a Macquarie perch population that was restricted to a 9km section of the creek but was doing quite well.

That was until bushfire rapidly swept through the catchment in January this year.

Some of us visited the creek three weeks after the fires. The intensity, ferocity and speed of the fires meant nothing was spared. The former forest floor was literally a trail of death and destruction – dead and charred kangaroos, wallabies, deer, possums and birds were everywhere.

All that remained of Mannus Creek was green pools in a blackened landscape, still smouldering days after the fire front passed. We immediately feared for the Macquarie perch we’d sampled, which were quite healthy less than a year before.

To our surprise, some Macquarie perch had survived. But with most of the catchment fully burnt, and no vegetation to stop runoff, we knew it was a ticking time bomb.

A desperate rescue attempt

With little time, we had to remove as many fish as possible from Mannus Creek before the rains arrived. The plan was to create an “insurance population” in case rain caused the water conditions to deteriorate.

We rescued ten fish. Days later, rain washed ash and silt into the channel. Within hours, the once-pristine creek became flowing mud with the consistency of cake mix.

A government rescue team arrived a few days later to rescue more fish, and despaired at the “wall of ash and mud”.

An ark across Australia

Those ten individual Macquarie perch now live in an “ark” of at-risk species, spanning government and private hatchery facilities.

The ark is housing not only the Macquarie perch but other threatened species too. The rescued individuals, and perhaps their entire species, would have almost certainly perished during runoff events without these interventions.

Now a waiting game begins.

What next for the Macquarie perch?

Nobody knows for sure how many fish survived in Mannus Creek, nor how long it will take for the creek to recover. It could be years.

The challenge now is to support the rescued fish until it’s safe to either return them to the creek, or breed offspring and introduce them to their natural habitat.

Fish must be kept healthy and disease-free in captivity, and enough genetic diversity must be maintained for the population to remain viable.

If these rescued fish are held in captivity for too long, they might die. But equally worrying is that affected waterways may not recover in time to allow reintroduction.

Read more: Sure, save furry animals after the bushfires – but our river creatures are suffering too

While maintaining the rescued populations, we must redouble our efforts to improve their natural habitats.

Burnt areas can allow pest plant and animal species to take hold and change habitats, so these threats need to be controlled. Finding similar, unburnt refuge areas is also crucial to prepare for future events and protect ecosystem resilience.

Working through these considerations – and quickly – is essential to giving these species the best hope of survival.

Funding, equipment and human resources are desperately needed to help our rivers recover. But we know that without an effective on-ground intervention, recovery could take decades.

For the iconic Macquarie perch, that would be too late.

Read more: The sweet relief of rain after bushfires threatens disaster for our rivers

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Podger, Honorary Professor of Public Policy, Australian National University

In Hidden Hand, China scholars Clive Hamilton and Marieke Ohlberg examine the Chinese Communist Party’s influence in Europe and North America in a similar way to how Hamilton dissected the CCP’s influence in Australia in his 2018 book, Silent Invasion.

In my review of the 2018 book, I wrote

Perhaps Hamilton’s book is a useful reminder that we must not be naïve about our relationship with China. But his prescription, premised on China being our enemy and determined to achieve world domination, is precisely the wrong direction for addressing the genuine issues he raises.

The new book warrants a similar conclusion, though President Xi Jinping’s continued strengthening of CCP controls and pursuit of hegemony in our region add to the importance of not being naïve.

Hamilton and Ohlberg chronicle the various ways the CCP has attempted to wield influence in North America and Europe, from political and business elites to the Chinese diaspora, media, think tanks and academia, as well as through espionage and diplomacy.

Central to the book’s thesis is the diagram on pages 124-5 summarising most of the channels of influence from Chinese institutions (particularly party institutions) to various groups and organisations in Western nations. This is a one-direction diagram and assumes a totally coordinated strategy.

The book’s presentation is extremely detailed, including not just the names of Chinese institutions but the individuals said to be directing the strategies of influence. Similarly on the receiving end, the authors describe not only the groups and organisations in the West they claim are being influenced, but many of the individuals involved.

This level of detail is highlighted by the book’s 113 pages of footnotes and a 24-page index.

Read more: Politics with Michelle Grattan: Clive Hamilton and Richard McGregor on Australia-China relations

Despite this, the book is not a balanced, scholarly document. The narrative centres on a single-minded Communist Party that has always sought a Leninist world and is now taking advantage of its increased economic power to advance that objective more effectively.

There is little recognition of the huge shifts in Chinese economic, social and strategic policies over the past 50 years, or of the scale of the changes to its institutional arrangements and the role of government.

The authors also do not allow those in the West who they claim have been successfully (and naively) influenced the opportunity to respond, let alone to present evidence of their influence in the other direction.

Containment vs. ‘engage and constrain’

Hidden Hand is right to remind people that:

• China and the CCP are not one and the same

• China has a party-state system of government that is authoritarian and not democratic

• China does not have Western-style rule of law

• it does not recognise universal human rights in the way we understand them.

What is missing is a balanced discussion of the central debate about the appropriate approach to be taken in the West’s relations with China.

As Peter Varghese, the former head of DFAT, recently put it, the choice for Australia is between trying to “contain” China or “engage and constrain”.

Containment, he argues, is gaining traction in the US and among cheerleaders in Australia, but risks dismantling the global economic system and the supply chains that support it. For Australia, Varghese says, decoupling from our largest trading partner would be “sheer folly” irrespective of legitimate complaints about China’s behaviour.

The “engage and constrain” approach he favours involves expanding areas of cooperation where mutual interests are served, while holding firm to our values and strengthening our capacity to resist Chinese coercion through increased investment in defence and diplomacy.

This would show Beijing that “leverage is a two-way street” and that, with others, we are willing to “push back” if China pursues its interests in ways that do not respect our sovereignty.

While increasing investment in defence may well be justified, boosting our spending in diplomacy is even more important.

Read more: Why do we keep turning a blind eye to Chinese political interference?

In this light, viewing China as our “enemy” is counterproductive and ignores the mutual benefits and increased sharing of interests that have resulted from China’s opening up since 1978. (Hidden Hand does not repeat the explicit description of China as our enemy found in Hamilton’s earlier book, but it comes close, saying for the past 30 years China has viewed both sides of the Atlantic as its enemies).

Diplomacy may influence China’s perceptions of its national interests and, where significant differences remain, help to forge important alliances elsewhere.

Hamilton and Ohlberg seem to favour the “containment” strategy, warning on page 96 that

in fact, today it [the party-state] is more powerful than ever because of market forces.

Engagement can still have a positive effect

The implication, presumably, is that we should no longer contribute to China’s economic growth. This dismisses the remarkable benefits involved in China’s growth, including not only massive reductions in poverty, but also, for most Chinese, freedoms that were unimaginable in the Mao Zedong era. There have also been flow-on benefits for the rest of the world.

China’s opening up has of course not led to Western-style democracy, and is unlikely to do so in the foreseeable future. Indeed, under Xi, the CCP’s position has been consolidated and many of the reforms of the 1990s and 2000s have been wound back. Human rights have been seriously curbed, most recently in Hong Kong.

But Hidden Hand’s presentation of a single, continuous CCP Leninist agenda ignores the existence of different views among the leadership and elsewhere in China, including those who favour further liberal reform (as described in Richard McGregor’s 2019 book, Xi Jinping: The Backlash).

And it fails to appreciate the underlying contradictions of China’s “socialist market economy” and Xi’s “China Dream”, which offer avenues for Western leaders and academics to influence debates in China through engagement – as has happened over the past 30 years.

As the main coordinator of the Greater China Australia Dialogue on Public Administration, which organises annual workshops of scholars and practitioners from across the PRC (including Hong Kong and Macau) and Taiwan, I have witnessed some of the winding back of academic freedoms since Xi’s 2016 restrictions on social science teaching and research. This includes some of the specific CCP restrictions mentioned in Hidden Hand.

Read more: The world has a hard time trusting China. But does it really care?

But this surely makes it even more important to continue the engagement while resisting the pressures involved.

Similarly, I am not at all convinced by the book’s attacks on any cooperation with the Belt and Road Initiative.

While the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has more sound governance, there are similar arguments for participation in BRI, providing support from the inside for transparency, proper cost-benefit analysis of projects and good understanding of debt obligations. It would also limit opportunities for China to pursue improper methods of influence.

How the West should respond to Chinese influence

The book’s afterword provides a slightly more moderate position on what should be done to counter Chinese influence moving forward. It still overplays its hand in promoting an “active pushback strategy” and its recommendation the Western

elites who acquiesce to or actively support Beijing deserve public scrutiny and robust criticism.

But the other recommendations have merit: defending democratic institutions through greater transparency and foreign interference laws, addressing the underfunding of universities and financial challenges facing our media, reducing vulnerability of our industries to CCP pressure and promoting more alliances, including with developing countries.

We cannot lose faith in liberal economics as Hamilton and Ohlberg seem to suggest, relying only on democratic forces to ensure freedom. The truth is, we need both.

– ref. Book Review: Hidden Hand – Exposing How the Chinese Communist Party is Reshaping the World – https://theconversation.com/book-review-hidden-hand-exposing-how-the-chinese-communist-party-is-reshaping-the-world-142058