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Luke Foley’s resignation is a disaster for Labor but may not bolster Berejiklian much either

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Hogan, Associate Professor and Honorary Associate, Department of Government and International Relations, University of Sydney

The resignation of Luke Foley as Labor opposition leader in New South Wales is a disaster for the party as it faces a March 23 general election – but it isn’t necessarily great news for the ailing Berejiklian government either.

To form a judgement about the impact of Foley’s resignation on Labor’s electoral chances, just take a look at the state of play about a month ago.

First, we need to look at how the government and opposition were travelling before Corrections Minister David Elliott accused Foley of sexual misconduct under parliamentary privilege on October 18, effectively setting off Labor’s leadership crisis.

Virtually all media attention was on the performance of the Berejiklian government and on the premier herself. Foley was little known and little regarded. However, he was steering the ship with some skill, albeit with occasional problems.

It says a great deal about the low political esteem in which the government was held that, even without a popular opposition leader, the Coalition was seen to be in electoral difficulty. Not that a wager on a Labor victory would have been a safe bet back then, either. Still, the Coalition was likely to lose seats and quite likely to lose majority status in parliament at the upcoming elections.

Nothing has changed on that side of politics. Berejiklian still faces discontent about her hasty policy decisions and frequent backtracking; uncompleted grand projects like the new tram network and WestConnex remain problems rather than achievements.


Read more: Privatising WestConnex is the biggest waste of public funds for corporate gain in Australian history


Add to that the difficulties over electoral support for the Coalition – especially for the National Party in regional New South Wales, and there is a flow-on from the disastrous performance of both Coalition parties at the federal level.

The unhappy picture only gets worse with the prospect of factional warfare in the Liberal Party as conservatives, led by Tony Abbott, attempt to take control of pre-selections and the state party machinery in the next few months.

Maybe the present crisis in the Labor Party will also have a negative effect on the Coalition, since David Elliott’s intervention smacks of the worst kind of “bear pit” politics that brings party politics into disrepute.

A mea culpa from Foley might have helped

Still, the Foley resignation is a disaster for the prospects of the Labor Party. Perhaps a quick transfer of power to a new leader, and apologies all round, might have left the party with a chance of winning the election. But Foley’s stated determination to fight the accusation with defamation proceedings makes the situation worse.

Foley can hope to remedy his plight only if he can prove that the allegations against him are false. As the likely new leader of the party, deputy leader Michael Daley, has pointed out, it is not politically (or ethically) acceptable for a political leader to blame his alleged victim.

Daley is also the shadow planning minister, and served as a former roads and police minister before Labor lost government. After Foley stood down, Daley quickly emerged as the most likely successor.

He was Foley’s main rival in the wake of the resignation of former Labor leader John Robertson in 2014.

Foley’s likely successor urges Foley to leave parliament

Daley, quite sensibly, has said that Foley should consider his position, and resign from parliament, and presumably drop his plan to sue for defamation. Foley has since said he will not re-contest his seat in the March 2019 election.

Presuming that Daley is the new leader, he will have little time to assert his authority and impress the electorate. He has ministerial experience, but that was in the disastrous last Labor administration, which was thrown out of office for the corruption that resulted in two of his ministerial colleagues going to prison.

His reputation in the party is of experience and competence, but he can expect to be reminded of his friends and colleagues, Eddie Obeid and Ian Macdonald. That is a lot of baggage to carry.

ref. Luke Foley’s resignation is a disaster for Labor but may not bolster Berejiklian much either – http://theconversation.com/luke-foleys-resignation-is-a-disaster-for-labor-but-may-not-bolster-berejiklian-much-either-106705]]>

Low-cost solar batteries key to cheap electricity for Polynesian countries

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A report on innovative solar energy technology for the Pacific. Video: NZIPR

By Sri Krishnamurthi with Peter Wilson in Auckland

Solar-powered batteries are the key to a future without electricity grids for Polynesian countries in the Pacific (Samoa, Cook Islands and Tonga), a study has found.

The study is funded by the New Zealand Institute for Pacific Research (NZIPR) to assess the feasibility of a low-cost, energy future – titled “Polynesian pathways to a future without electricity grids”.

The first phase of the research, conducted by Peter Wilson (principal economist and head of Auckland business for the NZ Institute of Economic Research) and his team of Professor Basil Sharp (Auckland University professor and chair in energy economics) and Gareth William (head of Solar City Energy Services), queries whether distributed solar electricity is a practical alternative to grid-based electricity.

“The project is investigating the impact of new technologies on electricity sectors in the Pacific, we are looking at whether solar panels and batteries could augment or eventually replace electricity grids and large diesel generators,” says principal investigator Wilson.

“First phase is showing that the costs of both solar panels and batteries is diminishing very quickly and it won’t be very long before they will be economic in the Pacific and so that you have the potential to start radically changing how energy is delivered to Pacific nations.”

-Partners-

While he believes it is technologically feasible now, the prohibitive cost of the batteries at the moment – the leading provider of solar batteries being Elon Musk’s Tesla Powerwall – is something that has economically got to arrive yet, but the trend is towards costs being reduced significantly.

He says that within 10 years batteries and solar panels together could have a large impact on existing electricity sectors in the islands, and he sees that as a positive development because it will make it easier to extend electricity to people who don not currently have it at a cheap cost.

Decisions needed
However, he says, it does mean that the island governments must consider what they do with their existing generators and existing distribution assets if they are found to be non-competitive against the new technology.

“While it is not economically feasible yet, the trends are there and so it’s something that the Pacific governments should start thinking about,” says Wilson.

“At the moment they’re focusing very much on using solar panels to replace their electricity generation, they’re just connecting to their existing electricity grids and existing technologies.

“We think the batteries are going to change the equation and that is something that should be looked at, and the point is that this is not just something for the Pacific Islands, it’s happening around the world and a lot of countries and a lot of companies are trying to work out what to do, but they don’t really have a solution.”

He is expecting exciting new technological developments in batteries as a means of storing electricity into the future.

“The basic technology is not changing. What is changing is the cost of the batteries and their efficiency, how much power they can hold,” says Wilson.

“We’ve all seen how cell phones have become smaller and smaller over the few last years, and a large amount of that is because the batteries getting smaller and better, electric vehicles are doing the same thing. It is the same technology just using it for a different purpose.”

Hawai’ian benchmark
Hawai’i is an example they studied because it is like the South Pacific countries.

“Hawai’i which has a similar geography to the South Pacific, it’s North Pacific and tropical country with small islands and they too have moved to replace the diesel-fired generators with solar panels,” says Wilson.

“That’s a good benchmark to look at on the technological side but the economics are slightly different because it’s bigger Island, but what we particularly looked is that is an example of what could happen.”

The next phase is due to begin as soon as the NZIPR give it the greenlight.

Peter Wilson explains the way forward. “Hopefully it starts sometime this year and that involves going out to the islands and doing on-the-spot investigations, talking to people, at the moment phase one was desk research based in New Zealand.”

“So far the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) has been very supportive of the project They’ve been funding quite large numbers of solar panels into the Pacific and they are quite keen to look at this next development which is adding batteries to that investment.”

He says the electricity generation industries are facing a major change in the evolution of the technology with what they do in their business.

‘Technological revolution’
“These industries are facing a technological revolution. They have choices, how do they respond? do they try to get ahead the curve, do they bury head in sand, do they try and make it someone else’s problem.

“We are seeing around the world this issue is being addressed, in some countries, some companies are very supportive and wanting to get to get on the bandwagon.”

Ultimately the goal is renewable energy to expand access to affordable, reliable and clean energy in the Pacific. Renewable energy targets feature prominently in all their Nationally Determined Contributions submitted under the Paris Agreement on climate change.

Already a change is underway in Australia and New Zealand with a slow but sure transformation to renewable energy.

“It’s starting to change now. You are seeing in Auckland the lines company Vector is starting to invest in large batteries (Tesla Powerwall batteries) rather than just look at extensions to the grid.

This is a project that can change the economies of scale of Pacific countries and Peter Wilson is banking on it to transform lives in Samoa, Cook Islands and Tonga.

The Pacific Media Centre shares content with the NZ Institute for Pacific Research as part of a collaboration agreement. The video was edited by Blessen Tom as part of the partnership.

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Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

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How to restore trust in governments and institutions

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Grant Duncan, Associate Professor for the School of People, Environment and Planning, Massey University

Addressing the UN General Assembly in September, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that the world is “suffering from a bad case of trust deficit disorder”.

Trust is at a breaking point. Trust in national institutions. Trust among states. Trust in the rules-based global order. Within countries, people are losing faith in political establishments, polarization is on the rise and populism is on the march.

Yet, it takes global collective action, and hence trust, to prevent proliferation of nuclear weapons, address climate change and uphold human rights. It takes trust across political parties and across generations to create a durable consensus to reduce economic inequality and poverty.


Read more: If politicians want more trust from voters, they need to start behaving with civility and respect


Decline in trust

Surveys of people’s trust in politicians and governments generally show a long-term decline, especially in the United States which has surveys dating back to 1958. As President Trump thrives on distrust, this trend is unlikely to reverse anytime soon.

Decline of trust is not uniform in all democracies, but, if you ask people whether they trust politicians, the answer is likely to be negative, even in countries like Norway. Furthermore, voter turnouts are in decline – another symptom of distrust. But, if we lack political trust, then we lack the foundation on which to negotiate collectively any sustainable solutions to the world’s most urgent problems.

In western political thought, trust is traditionally seen in two closely related dimensions. In John Locke’s version, trust is a gift from the people to those who rule, conditional upon powers being used for the people’s security and safety. In John Stuart Mill’s version, the elected representative is regarded as a trustee who acts on voters’ behalf rather than a delegate acting only at our behest.

Room for scepticism

In general, people who vote are more likely to express higher levels of trust in politicians and in government. But some may vote in order to defeat a candidate or party regarded as untrustworthy (on an “anyone but” basis) while others may not bother voting because they are highly, if not naively, trusting.

In any political system, it is not prudent to trust completely, however. We have constitutional checks and balances precisely because we trust no one at all with absolute and unaccountable powers. In a democracy, whether one votes or not, we have little choice but to entrust a relatively small number of representatives with powers to pass laws and to govern, but we are not called on to abandon scepticism or to have blind faith.

The big issue, though, is how to develop greater trustworthiness in the individuals whom we do elect, and how to build greater popular trust in decision-making systems, even when we disagree openly and strongly over particular concerns.

Trust in politics

Trust is not a thing that one can literally build, break and then rebuild. Political leaders cannot simply approve a policy and a budget to rebuild trust in the way that we rebuild worn-out infrastructure.

If we demand trust from people, they are likely to react with scepticism. Sledge Hammer’s famous “Trust me, I know what I’m doing” was funny for good reason.

Political and economic systems that are “rigged” (when they produce unfair outcomes or are downright corrupt) are unlikely to be trusted, moreover. Many people in affluent countries are finding that hard work for long hours is not providing a standard of living sufficient to achieve reasonable life goals.

Electoral systems often deliver disproportionate results. Politicians attack one another for short-term gain rather than work for the good of the country. Reducing economic inequality and reforming electoral systems or campaign finance laws may help to address the problem of political trust.


Read more: New Zealand politics: how political donations could be reformed to reduce potential influence


What to do

But there is a deeper “bootstraps” problem, as it takes political trust to gain the consensus to take the actions needed for such significant reforms. It takes trust to build trust. It would be morally unacceptable, however, to give up on the project of restoring political trust on the grounds that it’s too hard.

We need first to understand clearly the kinds of actions entailed in trustworthy conduct – for example, abstaining from taking advantage of the vulnerable, paying heed to people’s complaints, promising no more than one can deliver. If we adopt these characteristics in our own behaviour, then we are in a much better position to expect them of others.

Beyond individual conduct, we need to examine carefully our economic and political systems. The world will never be perceived by all as completely fair. But the difficult task of restoring political trust is inextricably entwined with the tasks of critically reflecting on our own behaviour as leaders in our communities and then working for significant reforms to social and economic policies and electoral systems.

ref. How to restore trust in governments and institutions – http://theconversation.com/how-to-restore-trust-in-governments-and-institutions-106547]]>

VIDEO: Michelle Grattan on Turnbull’s QandA appearance, Morrison’s bus tour, and antics in NSW

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Michelle Grattan speaks to University of Canberra Vice-Chancellor Deep Saini about the week in Australian politics. They discuss Malcolm Turnbull’s special interview on ABC’s QandA, Scott Morrison’s bus tour campaign in Queensland, former federal Labor opposition leader Mark Latham running as a One Nation candidate in the NSW upper house, and Luke Foley resigning as NSW opposition leader over alleged inappropriate behaviour.

ref. VIDEO: Michelle Grattan on Turnbull’s QandA appearance, Morrison’s bus tour, and antics in NSW – http://theconversation.com/video-michelle-grattan-on-turnbulls-qanda-appearance-morrisons-bus-tour-and-antics-in-nsw-106706]]>

Encouraging suicide or committing manslaughter?

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marilyn McMahon, Deputy Dean, School of Law, Deakin University

Jennifer Morant, 56, died of carbon monoxide poisoning in her car in November 2014. Last month, a jury found her husband, Graham Morant, 69, guilty of two crimes under section 311 of Queensland’s Criminal Code Act 1889: counselling her to commit suicide, and aiding her to do so. He had repeatedly encouraged Jennifer to commit suicide (counselling), and had even driven her to a hardware store to purchase the equipment she used to kill herself (aiding).

Jennifer Morant suffered from chronic illnesses, including depression, anxiety and back pain. But this was not a case where a loving husband helped his terminally-ill wife to end her suffering. Instead, the Court found that Morant had been motivated by greed, and that the self-styled religious leader wanted access to the $1.4 million from his wife’s life insurance policies so he could build a religious retreat.


Read more: Could long-distance bullies in Australia face up to 20 years in jail for encouraging suicide?


Justice Peter Davis of the Supreme Court of Queensland sentenced Morant to ten years in prison. He is believed to be the first person in Australia to be sentenced for counselling suicide.

The maximum penalty for this offence in Queensland is life, but in some other jurisdictions can be as low as five years’ imprisonment – so the same offence in NSW or Victoria would attract a much lighter penalty.

Morant was aware his wife was thinking about killing herself, and encouraged and helped her to do so, according to the Supreme Court of Queensland. So a key question is: should he have been charged with a more serious offence, such as murder or manslaughter?

The answer relates to the unusual status of suicide under the criminal law, and the extent to which the law assumes people act “voluntarily” and of their own free will.

The legal status of suicide

For half a century, suicide has not been a crime in Australia (though in practice, of course, only attempted suicide could be prosecuted). As a result, Morant could not be found guilty of complicity – often called “aiding and abetting” – in his wife’s suicide.

Mostly, telling someone else to commit a crime can mean both people are charged: the person who actually did the crime is the main offender, and the person who counselled them is an accessory.

But for a person to be an accessory, the other person must have committed a crime. Given that suicide has been decriminalised, Morant could not be charged as an accessory to his wife’s death; her behaviour was not a crime.

Suicide as a voluntary act

Another issue is the voluntariness of suicide. The criminal law is reluctant to assign responsibility to a person for the voluntary acts of another.

Justice Davis said Jennifer Morant “voluntarily sat in the car with the windows and doors all closed” and therefore caused her own death.

Although this was not a matter Justice Davis was required to adjudicate, he suggested that Graham Morant did not legally cause his wife’s death and could not, therefore, be responsible for manslaughter or murder.

However, there is precedent in Australia and other jurisdictions which suggests that a person could be found to be guilty of manslaughter in broadly analogous circumstances. We explore this issue in a recent article in the Alternative Law Journal, and it is illustrated in a couple of cases from the United States.

Encouraging suicide can constitute manslaughter

In 1961, a Massachusetts man was convicted of involuntary manslaughter after encouraging and helping his wife to commit suicide.

After he told her that he was going to obtain a divorce, she threatened suicide. He said she had tried twice before and was too “chicken”, then told her to get a rifle they owned, loaded it for her and told her how to position it so she could shoot herself. She did so, killing herself, and he was convicted of manslaughter.

In another US case, currently pending a decision by an appeal court, a woman, now 22, was found guilty last year of involuntary manslaughter after texting her suicidal boyfriend with messages encouraging him to take his life.


Read more: Will guilty verdict in teen texting suicide case lead to new laws on end-of-life issues?


Prosecuting someone like Graham Morant for manslaughter should not be dismissed as fanciful. According to court judgements in this case, the Morants had been married 14 years, and his wife had previously contemplated suicide and was thinking of it in the days before her death. The prosecution also argued that he had told her that she ‘was not strong enough to survive the raptures which were imminent’, a reference to his belief the end-times were coming.

When sentencing Morant, Justice Davis said that he “took advantage of her vulnerability as a sick, depressed woman”.

In short, the court found that Graham Morant exploited both his wife’s vulnerable mental state and the trust inherent in their intimate relationship in order to benefit financially from her death.

We as a society are becoming increasingly aware of the effects of psychological coercion in the context of family violence, and the extent to which a person can overbear the free will of their partner. Consequently, Justice Davis’ conclusion that it wasn’t necessary to make detailed findings about Jennifer Morant’s emotional state or mental health is perhaps surprising.

Greed versus compassion

There are, of course, numerous issues to be addressed before people are held responsible for manslaughter for causing someone else’s suicide.

For instance, one key issue concerns motivation. Should the law respond differently to financially-motivated offenders and altruistically motivated offenders whose behaviour is driven by love (such as Heinz Klinkermann in Victoria)?

In the United Kingdom, for example, prosecutors are expressly told to take into account whether the offender was “wholly motivated by compassion” when deciding whether to even prosecute someone for causing another person’s suicide.

Whatever approach we adopt, it is important that an accused’s criminal conviction is commensurate with their moral culpability.

* If this article raises any concerns for you, please contact Lifeline on 13 11 14 or BeyondBlue on 1300 22 4636.

ref. Encouraging suicide or committing manslaughter? – http://theconversation.com/encouraging-suicide-or-committing-manslaughter-106324]]>

Origins and implications of the caravan of Honduran migrants

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sharon McLennan, Lecturer in International Development, Massey University

Honduras is a wonderful place for a short visit, despite its reputation as a one of the most dangerous places on the planet. It is a small, beautiful country with an abundance of natural resources and a warm, welcoming culture. But it is a very hard place to live.

I first travelled there nearly 20 years ago to do volunteer work, meeting my Honduran husband in the process. I have visited multiple times since then, including living in Honduras for nearly a year while doing my PhD research. In September this year we visited for a month, spending time with family and friends, with discussions often revolving around politics, violence, and the difficulty of life in Honduras.

When news emerged two weeks after we left of a caravan of migrants making their way across Guatemala and Mexico to the United States, I wasn’t surprised. Here are five reflections on the origins and implications of the caravan.

Corruption as the operating system

The place migrants are leaving is more important and relevant than the place they are going to. Political corruption and repression, gangs, drug cartels, land pressures and climate change make life very difficult for most Hondurans, and impossible for some. Every Honduran has a story of violence.

Business owners sleep on the premises with a gun for protection, and drivers carry extra cash to pay corrupt police if pulled over. People avoid the centre of large cities wherever possible.

For those who have crossed paths with the gangs or drug cartels, dared to protest against the government, or tried to stand up for community rights in the face of mining corporations and dam builders, it is unimaginably difficult.

In 2017, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace noted that in Honduras, “corruption is the operating system”, with “repression … carefully targeted for maximum psychological effect.”

When conditions are this bad, large-scale migration is inevitable, and many of these migrants are, in effect, refugees.

US complicit in crisis

Rather than being the victim of a migrant invasion, the United States is complicit. While local elites and politicians carry much of the blame for the chaos, decades of US meddling in the region has played a significant role.


Read more: How US policy in Honduras set the stage for today’s migration


Poverty and inequality in Honduras has roots in the activities of American fruit companies throughout the 19th and 20th centuries. The current instability can be traced to the 2009 coup, the success of which was partly attributable to US policy.

More recent meddling includes the endorsement of the fraudulent election of Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández in 2017.

Since that election, there has been another major increase in political violence and repression. Through close ties with the Honduran business elites, US and transnational corporate interests are also linked to the repression of environmentalists and indigenous leaders.

Fewer migrants, but larger groups

Although the caravan seems huge to us, this is just a drop in the bucket. More than 300,000 individuals were apprehended crossing the border illegally from Mexico into the USA in 2017. This was an historic low, down from 1.6 million in 2000.


Read more: Today’s US-Mexico ‘border crisis’ in 6 charts


It is as also just a tiny fraction of the number of undocumented migrants, refugees and asylum seekers worldwide.

However, this caravan is part of a trend towards migrants and refugees travelling in larger groups. The journey through Mexico is dangerous. For example, rape is very common.

Amnesty International estimates that 60% of women and girls who attempt the journey individually or in small groups are raped en route, and girls as young as 12 take measures to avoid pregnancy.

Stories of hope

Individual stories often get lost in the numbers and rhetoric. Focusing on the numbers lends credence to the rhetoric of invasion. It is important to remember that each member of the caravan is a person, with a story, a family, and dreams for the future.

The caravan includes many young men, but rather than being criminals to be feared, many are escaping the gangs, planning to work hard to send money home to families in Honduras. Indeed, the remittances that will be sent by migrants and refugees is potentially of far greater value to Honduran development than any official aid, reducing poverty and increasing household spending across Honduras.

The key to reducing future migration may well be development stimulated by the money these migrants will send home.

A call for compassion

Finally, this caravan might seem far away and irrelevant to people in New Zealand and Australia. As my Honduran husband can attest, the number of Central Americans who make it here is tiny. However, we should take notice, because the global climate that has both led to the emergence of migrant caravans and the racist, anti-immigration rhetoric of US President Trump and others affects us too.

The rhetoric of Australian politicians and their refusal to show any compassion towards those who attempt to reach their shores should sound a warning. Generalising and stereotyping migrants and refugees is a dangerous step towards an even more insecure world, where those who already have the good life are protected, and those who don’t are stuck in a no-man’s land of poverty, violence and insecurity.

Compassion and recognition of the humanity of refugees and migrants is an important step towards building a more secure future and a peaceful world.

ref. Origins and implications of the caravan of Honduran migrants – http://theconversation.com/origins-and-implications-of-the-caravan-of-honduran-migrants-106443]]>

How tracking people moving together through time creates powerful data

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tiffany Gill, Senior Research Fellow, University of Adelaide

This article is part of the series This is research, where we ask academics to share and discuss open access articles that reveal important aspects of science. Today’s piece looks at a vital concept in medical studies: the cohort.


Are you in a cohort? Perhaps a posse of friends, a sporting team, the “class of 1989” Facebook group from your former school?

“Cohort” is collective term used to refer to people with something in common – historically it described a group of soldiers, but now is most often used in research contexts.

Cohort studies typically involve recruiting a group of people to look at causes of disease. Cohorts are followed over time, in longitudinal studies – imagine the people marching forward together through the years, like a group of soldiers.

One of the most well-known cohort studies – the Framingham Heart Study – first clearly identified something that most of us now take for granted: heart attacks and other forms of heart disease run in families.


Read more: Heart attacks more frequent in colder weather


The causes of heart disease

The Framingham Heart Study commenced in 1948, and was designed to understand why increasing numbers of people in the United States had heart disease. It was so named because the town of Framingham, Massachusetts, was chosen as the study site.

The main aim of the study was to determine risk factors for heart disease, and then use these to create public health programs.

To date, the study has been vital in identifying important risk factors in heart disease development, such as:

  • high blood pressure, weight gain and high cholesterol
  • male sex and increasing age
  • diabetes
  • smoking.

Initially, 5209 men and women took part in the study. But since then, researchers have recruited children of the original cohort, and a third generation cohort of grandchildren. The original recruits have now been examined over 30 times.

A 2015 snapshot of the time course of enrolment of the original and subsequent cohorts within the Framingham Heart Study. N refers to the number of people in each cohort. Reproduced from Benjamin I et al. Circulation 2015; 131: 100–12

The population of Framingham has also changed over the years, from predominantly white to a more diverse population – people of African American, Hispanic, Asian and Native American descent have been recruited.


Read more: Research Check: will a coffee a day really keep heart attacks at bay?


High quality data

Framingham is known for a very high rate of keeping people involved in the study. This is due to the constant follow up by the staff.

There are examination visits every two to six years, with staff members travelling to participants if they are unable to come to the measurement centres. There are follow up questionnaires and telephone calls between examinations, not only for local residents but also for participants who live in other parts of the United States or the world. Keeping participants in the study ensures that the quality of the data and research outcomes are maintained at a high level.

While Framingham originally focused on cardiovascular disease, it has now also examined diabetes, stroke, dementia, cancer, osteoporosis and osteoarthritis.

The Framingham Study involves regular follow up to take health measurements such as blood pressure. rawpixel/Unsplash, CC BY

A cohort study like Framingham follows individuals over time to investigate the causes of disease, record disease outcomes (such as illness and death) and establish links with disease risk factors. But such a study is also analytical: comparisons can be made between the general population and the cohort.

Cohort studies provide high quality evidence on the risk factors and causes of disease. Cohort studies can also describe the incidence of diseases – the number of new cases of a disease that occur in a specific timeframe.

However, these types of studies are observational: that is, they do not include a specific intervention or treatment to address a particular disease.


Read more: The curious case of the missing workplace teaspoons


Forward and back

The Framingham study design is “prospective” – it was planned in advance and the studies carried out moving forwards over a period of time. Other cohort studies are “retrospective” – looking at data that already exists.

In addition to Framingham, other cohort studies have provided a significant amount of information about:


Read more: Research Check: can you cut your cancer risk by eating organic?


Cohort studies are particularly important for examining diseases that take a long time to develop, and for exploring the effect of social and environmental factors on health. They are not useful for looking at rare, or sudden disease outbreaks. They are expensive and can take a long time to produce results.

But they have provided some of the most significant information on some of today’s biggest health problems.


The open access research paper for this analysis is Cohort Profile: The Framingham Heart Study (FHS): overview of milestones in cardiovascular epidemiology.

ref. How tracking people moving together through time creates powerful data – http://theconversation.com/how-tracking-people-moving-together-through-time-creates-powerful-data-103841]]>

Australia and China push the ‘reset’ button on an important relationship

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tony Walker, Adjunct Professor, School of Communications, La Trobe University

Australia can thank an erratic Donald Trump for the opportunity to “reset” its relationship with China after a chill engendered by what was interpreted as criticism from the then prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, and foreign minister, Julie Bishop.

Turnbull had caused offence with his criticism of Chinese interference in Australian politics via Beijing’s front organisations. And in March 2017, Bishop had questioned China’s political model in a speech in Singapore.

A reset was already in the works before Turnbull was felled in August in a palace coup. The two countries had been reassessing shared interests in light of the wrecking ball US President Trump has taken to an international rules-based system.


Read more: Morrison and Shorten reveal their positions on key foreign policy questions


Former treasurer and new Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s elevation of Marise Payne to replace Bishop provided a pretext for an important diplomatic engagement in Beijing in the lead-up to what is being called the “summit season”.

This interaction may well have happened anyway, but a changing of the guard in Canberra helped get over any “face issues” that might have lingered after fairly trenchant criticism of Australia in Chinese official mouthpiece publications.

Payne’s arrival in the Chinese capital ahead of an East Asia Summit in Singapore, an Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Port Moresby, and a G20 summit in Buenos Aires this month is not a coincidence.

Her presence in Beijing for the fifth Australia-China Foreign and Strategic Dialogue is the first visit by an Australian foreign minister in nearly three years.

After putting Australia in the freezer, Beijing has enabled a thaw ahead of these important events at which America’s behaviour will be under scrutiny, if not censure.

Beijing’s emollient words at a meeting between Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Payne could have hardly contrasted more sharply with criticism expressed over the past several years as debate about foreign interference disrupted the relationship.

This is what Wang had to say about a reset:

We are ready to step up our strategic dialogue and deepen strategic cooperation … in particular, rebuild and cement our political mutual trust.

These are Chinese diplomatic buzzwords, with an emphasis on “mutual trust”.

Payne described her two hours of talks – which ran overtime – as a “full and candid discussion”. Australia and China had agreed on a “respectful relationship”.

Pointedly, Wang had referred to a “new government” in Canberra, as if to say that a change of management had enabled a thaw.


Read more: The risks of a new Cold War between the US and China are real: here’s why


China’s conduct of its foreign policy, in which it alternately rewards and penalises those who fall out of favour, in some ways resembles a Beijing opera.

Melodrama is intrinsic to this Chinese art form.

China’s invitation to Payne for a long-delayed strategic dialogue is a calculated diplomatic move. It’s one that also suits Australia, anxious to gets its diplomatic relationship with China back on track.

It is in neither country’s interests – certainly not Australia’s – for an estrangement to persist at a time when uncertainty prevails due to an unpredictable American presidency.

Concerns in Beijing and Canberra about preserving open markets when American protectionism is threatening a liberalising trading environment have prompted this reset and determined its timing.

Beyond that, Canberra appears to have resolved that Australia’s interests are not well served by allowing an Australian security establishment possessed of a certain anti-China mindset to tilt policy in directions that do not serve the national interest.

It is one thing to exhibit scepticism about China’s behaviour and motivations. It is quite another to allow a “reds under the bed” mentality to drive policy.

No-one with more than passing knowledge believes China is a benign power. But nor is it the enemy. Its rise is a fact of life, whether Australian policymakers in thrall to a security establishment like it or not.

Interestingly, China sought to allay Australia’s concerns about its push into the southwest Pacific by offering “trilateral cooperation” in assisting Pacific island states build their infrastructure.

How this would work practically is not clear. But Wang appeared to be suggesting that Australia’s newly announced infrastructure fund for the Pacific could participate in joint projects with China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Australia and China are not competitors, not rivals but cooperation partners, and we have agreed to combine and capitalise on our respective strengths to carry out trilateral cooperation involving Pacific Island states.

Significantly, Australia’s announcement on the eve of the Wang-Payne meeting that Canberra was blocking the takeover of the APA Group by Hong Kong’s CK Group on competition grounds was not an impediment to improving ties.

Pragmatism prevailed. “We hope a single case won’t affect Australia’s attitude to investment,” Wang said.

Payne’s visit took place against the background of overtures to China begun by Turnbull and Bishop in their efforts to restore certainty to the relationship.

A speech by Morrison to the Asia Society last week, in which he spoke of the importance of the Australia-China relationship, provided further impetus for a reset, propelled to a certain extent by Washington.

ref. Australia and China push the ‘reset’ button on an important relationship – http://theconversation.com/australia-and-china-push-the-reset-button-on-an-important-relationship-106428]]>

How a Sri Lankan student’s arrest on terror charges exposes a system built to suspect minorities

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Randa Abdel Fattah, DECRA Research Fellow, Macquarie University

The war on terror has resulted in the gradual erosion of basic civil and human rights in the name of security. The latest casualty in Australia is Mohamed Kamer Nizamdeen, a 25-year-old PhD student, who was locked up in solitary confinement in a high-security prison for four weeks on the flimsiest of evidence.

Nizamdeen has now returned home to Sri Lanka, where he told a press conference that his life has been “shattered” and his future “clearly ruined”.

Nizamdeen was charged with making a document connected to the preparation of a terrorist act. The sole piece of evidence was a notebook found in his workplace desk at the University of New South Wales. Despite denying the handwriting in the notebook was his, and the fact Nizamdeen had not used the office space for a month, he was arrested, deprived of access to a lawyer for six days and denied communication with his family for a month.

He was also classified as an “AA extreme high risk restricted” inmate, the highest classification under NSW’s corrective services system.

Mick Sheehy, NSW police’s detective acting superintendent, told the media that Nizamdeen had “affiliated” with ISIS, but less than two months later, the charges were dropped.

Mohamed Kamer Nizamdeen has called the AFP investigation ‘irresponsible’ and ‘biased’. LinkedIn

How ‘extremist identities’ become motive

Nizamdeen was not released because he was proven innocent. He was released because the system could not prove him guilty. This is the logic of how counter-terrorism policing and the law works against Muslims and people of colour who are policed as suspect communities.

Under the law, one of the criteria of a terrorist act is:

it intends to coerce or influence the public or any government by intimidation to advance a political, religious or ideological cause.

In her book Traces of Terror, Victoria Sentas, a counter-terrorism law expert, argues that:

the requirement for an accused to advance a political, religious or ideological cause formally introduces a motive element to terrorism offences.

A person can also be convicted of preparing to carry out a terrorist act even without proof that he or she intended to commit such an offence. The prosecution only needs to prove motive – and in the context of the war on terror, proof of a Muslim “extremist identity” becomes evidence of motive.

This is why Nizamdeen’s belongings, such as his computer, mobile phone and residence were searched for evidence of extremist ideology. (None was found.)

Far-right extremists not treated the same

Those who have followed Australia’s unprecedented expansion of counter-terrorism laws, preventative detention and control orders, and intelligence, security and law enforcement powers will not be surprised by the travesty of justice suffered by Nizamdeen.

It has always been the case that the biggest casualties of counter-terrorism laws and policing practices are racialised minorities. Years of law reform, policy frameworks, political rhetoric and community partnerships have normalised the perception that Muslims and “ethnic” people, particularly young people, are part of a suspect community.

Despite the mainstreaming of white nationalist voices and the normalisation of far-right extremist rhetoric in recent years, Muslims and people of colour are still considered the preeminent threat to national security in the war on terror.


Read more: New laws make loss of citizenship a counter-terrorism tool


The 2014 case of convicted firebomber Daniel Fing is a case in point. Fing was caught with more than a notebook in an office desk – he had a stockpile of explosive materials and maps of targets in Sydney and Newcastle.

Police believed he was plotting a mass attack on the two cities. But not only was Fing not charged with any terrorism-related offences, NSW police “strongly reassured” the public that the plot had “absolutely no links to terrorism”. Then-Prime Minister Tony Abbott also remarked:

There are all sorts of people who do all sorts of weird and, at times, pretty dangerous things. But I haven’t been advised of any potential terrorist threat in respect of this particular issue.

Mohamed Kamer Nizamdeen’s lawyer, Moustafa Kheir (centre), has called the jailing of the Sri Lankan student in a Supermax prison ‘unforgivable’. Erik Anderson/AAP

A normalisation of racialised policies

The construction of Muslims and people of colour as “suspect communities” relies on a system that considers them the natural objects of counter-terrorism and countering violent extremism work. This normalises and justifies enhanced social controls and state power over minorities in the name of national security.

As such, a person like Nizamdeen becomes justified collateral damage in the “greater fight against terror”. Policymakers have also used this rationale to justify the curtailing of personal freedoms.

This is what led to the extension of control orders to children as young as 14 and the imprisonment of Junaid Thorne with an AA classification in Goulburn’s high-security facility for the crime of booking airline tickets under the fake name of Prince Bhopal.

We have seen arrests based on spurious evidence (Muhamed Haneef) and police misconduct (Izhar ul-Haque). Our televisions and social media feeds feature sensationalised home raids in Sydney neighbourhoods reported to be “incubators of terrorism”, where police seize “weapons” that are later discovered to be plastic swords and home-made fly swatters.

If Nizamdeen had been a Smith or Jones, it is highly likely he would have met a different fate. Since the September 11 terrorist attacks, the rhetoric of the war on terror has turned the term “terrorist” into an everyday codeword for Muslims and ethnic minorities.

This is the world in which the police, politicians, media and public have come to expect the potential terrorist to exist. This is why new grants and policies aimed at countering violent extremism (CVE) are announced on the steps of mosques and CVE operations target geographic areas and populations deemed “at risk”.

It also explains why Islamophobic attacks are condemned by politicians and the police because they might undermine relationships of “cooperation” between intelligence and law enforcement and the Muslim community.


Read more: How the Australian government is failing on countering violent extremism


Even the government’s Living Safe Together website, a community-based grants program introduced by Abbott’s government to counter violent extremism, reinforces the centrality of Muslims and ethnic minorities to its agenda.

In this context, a suspicious notebook in an office desk codes differently when it is connected with a young Muslim man.

Nizamdeen is the latest in a long line of ethnic minorities who have become victims of a miscarriage of justice in a racialised counter-terrorism regime. While whiteness seems to be a mitigating factor in terrorist offences, being Muslim or a person of colour appears to be evidence of motive.

ref. How a Sri Lankan student’s arrest on terror charges exposes a system built to suspect minorities – http://theconversation.com/how-a-sri-lankan-students-arrest-on-terror-charges-exposes-a-system-built-to-suspect-minorities-106613]]>

Don’t give up on politics. It’s where the fight for the fair go must be won

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marc Stears, Professor and Director, Sydney Policy Lab, University of Sydney

Deepening economic inequality is a scourge across most of the world’s democracies. For decades now, the gap between the wealthiest and the poorest has been widening. This has very real and very dangerous consequences for people’s mental and physical health and for the cohesion of our communities. So why isn’t anything serious being done about it?

Reversing this trend, or at least ameliorating it, would not be difficult. Economists around the world have spent the last few years laying out some fairly straightforward policy solutions. These range from reform of the rules governing how pay is set in the big corporations to sustained investment in the foundational social services that everyone but the very richest relies upon, including public education, health and housing.

Despite this clarity, very few of these initiatives are being pursued in any of the developed democracies. Instead, political action remains focused on tax cuts that favour the wealthy or big business, on immigration restrictions that can hinder economic growth, and on public subsidies for a handful of old industries, even where there are environmental reasons to be transitioning away from them.


Read more: The fair go is a fading dream, but don’t write it off


Why the inaction on inequality?

The question that matters more than almost any other when it comes to inequality right now, then, is not whether it is a problem or how to resolve it, but what is it that’s holding us back from doing what we need to do?

The answer to this question cannot lie in an absence of practice, knowledge or understanding. Most countries successfully initiated inequality-tackling reforms in previous generations. And they often did so in far more pressing political and economic circumstances, such as the Great Depression of the 1930s or the immediate aftermath of the second world war.

Joseph Stiglitz. Bengt Oberger/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

Even where there is not previous experience to draw upon, politicians and their advisers can draw upon a host of more recent studies of the causes, consequences and potential responses to the rise of inequality. This includes the work of this year’s Sydney Peace Prize recipient, Joseph Stiglitz. There is no shortage of expertise for a new generation of egalitarian reformers to draw upon.

Nor does the answer lie in entrenched public unwillingness to tackle the problem. It is true that in the 1980s and 1990s, electorates the world over were often skittish about interventionist economic policy proposals. They favoured tax reductions over public service investment and were anxious about government’s efforts to “pick winners” in the economy.

But such anxiety has greatly lessened right now. Indeed, polling consistently suggests that even in countries without a sustained tradition of government action against inequality, a large public appetite now exists for measures to tackle it. Such measures, stretching from sharp increases in minimum wages to the nationalisation of major public utilities, enjoy majority support in many democracies.

We have also witnessed electorates across the world take bold and risky decisions in their voting behaviour. This includes support for extremist political movements motivated partly by a desire fundamentally to shift away from the status quo.

The problem lies with our politics

If the problem does not lie in knowledge or public support, it must lie somewhere that does not currently get enough attention: in our processes of policymaking – in short, our politics.

Political life in the developed democracies has been radically transformed in the last few decades. Usually this is told in a storybook version, with an endless rise of openness and inclusivity.

In the early decades of the 20th century, this narrative goes, women and the poorest won the vote. In the middle of the century, trade unions and civil society organisations exerted increasing influence on national political decision-making. And as the century aged, other groups including LGBTQI action groups, minority and indigenous populations began to find some long-denied political influence.

But there is another, far darker story to tell. The last few decades have witnessed the rise of another way of doing politics. The anthropologist Janine Wedel brilliantly describes that way in Unaccountable: How Elite Power Brokers Corrupt our Finances, Freedom, and Security (2014).

It is the world of the professional lobbyist, of the revolving door between global corporations and the highest levels of government, of uneasy relationships between public decision-making and private profit, and of the capture of elite thinking by norms and expectations that owe too much to the practices of the financial services sector.

Meet the New Influence Elites, a 2016 IPR Public Lecture by Professor Janine Wedel.

All of this has happened at the same time, of course, as a sharp decline in the organisations that used to do much to hold these tendencies back. Union membership has fallen rapidly in the advanced democracies, for instance. And formal mechanisms that guaranteed that governments had to explain their policy decisions to multiple stakeholders have been eroded across the world.


Read more: To tackle inequality, we must start in the labour market


As a result, the salience of issues such as “what the public thinks” and “what the public needs” when it comes to the economy have been significantly eroded as well.

What all of this means is that economic decision-making increasingly responds to a narrower and narrower section of society. In such circumstances, it is no wonder that almost no concerted action has been taken to halt the rise of inequality.

Fight for the fair go is political first

What it also means, though, is that the action we need to restore the fair go cannot begin with the economy. It must instead begin with policymaking and politics.

We need to make sure the voices of those affected by inequality are genuinely heard and heeded. This commitment should run through everything we do: from supporting our local trade union to opening up scholarly resources to those people in need, from demanding action to rein in corporate lobbying and special access to generating exciting and innovative ideas for using new technologies to accentuate the voice of those without access to formal power.

These ideas are where our energy needs to be. If we want to see greater equality, we need to spend time working out precisely how our political life can become truly responsive. And then we must campaign to make those changes real.


Read more: Why are unions so unhappy? An economic explanation of the Change the Rules campaign


ref. Don’t give up on politics. It’s where the fight for the fair go must be won – http://theconversation.com/dont-give-up-on-politics-its-where-the-fight-for-the-fair-go-must-be-won-105965]]>

How the open banking API could transform financial services to benefit consumers

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Grace Borsellino, Lecturer in Corporate Law and Governance, Western Sydney University

Until recently, the idea of waiting a day or two for a bank transfer to reach your account was normal, however consumers are starting to demand immediate and seamless payment alternatives. With upcoming developments in the Australian financial services sector, we should start to see these demands met – if not by banks, then by FinTech firms aiming to transform the financial services industry.

Twelve months after the government announced the introduction of a Consumer Data Right (CDR) in Australia, Data61 has released a working draft of the standards that will underpin it.

The CDR will offer Australians control over the data held about them by service providers, and the right to share it with a third party provider – including competitors to the service that compiled it. The CDR will first be implemented in the financial services sector under the Open Banking framework from July 2019.

ACCC Chairman Rod Sims expects the framework to:

…encourage competition between service providers, leading not only to better prices for customers but also more innovation of products and services.

We’re already seeing new services emerge in this space, such as the ability to pay at checkouts via your mobile phone, but real disruption will take time to occur as FinTech firms are provided with access to consumer data to create products we haven’t yet heard of.


Read more: What we can do once the banks give us back our data


FinTech in Australia is growing

FinTech is a term used to describe the use of technology in financial services. FinTech firms are often startup businesses that use new business models to disrupt existing financial systems. They create financial tools for everyday people, serious investors and the banks themselves.

Their customer focus caters to the growing millennial and Gen Z population who have large digital appetites. The Australian startup Zip Money offers a cloud-based digital platform that allows retailers to offer a “buy now, pay later” service to customers for their products. In 2016, the company acquired Pocketbook, which syncs transaction data from bank accounts to help users track their spending and manage their money.

Services like these aren’t a replacement for traditional banking. Rather, they use your banking data to create new services to deliver a better experience for users.

FinTech is rapidly growing, both in Australia and internationally. According to a recent survey, Australian FinTech companies have seen a 200% increase in median revenue since 2016.

Open banking will lead to further innovation and growth in the industry. We may even see banks shifting into the backdrop as these businesses become the shopfronts of financial services, using customer data held by banks.

How Open Banking will work

The CDR is only useful to consumers if the data is available in a format that is machine readable. FinTechs in Australia are currently using a manual “screen scraping” approach to gaining access to data held by banks.

For example, the Pocketbook app, with your permission, periodically pulls your bank transactions into the app to help you manage your finances. The technology is read-only, so you can’t use the app to actually process transactions.


Read more: Restructuring alone won’t clean up the banks’ act


Open banking will force the four major banks to make data about their customer’s card, deposit and transaction accounts available to different services by 1 July 2019. Mortgage data will follow by 1 February 2020. But this data will only be made available to other services with the permission of customers, and that permission can be revoked at any time.

Under this framework, FinTechs will be able to access customer banking data using APIs.

APIs will transform the industry

An Application Program Interface (API) is like a universal power socket for the digital world, allowing multiple systems to work together and speak to each other.

APIs will revolutionise the efficiency and speed at which payments are made by giving FinTechs easier and cleaner access to user accounts, with real-time updates and the ability to process transactions.

PayPal, for example, uses a REST API. REST APIs enable merchants and developers to create applications that manage payments, payment pre-approvals and refunds.

Open Banking will allow businesses, such as Amazon or Whatsapp, to offer financial services and products directly through their platforms, rather than through banking sites. This already happens in China via the social networking platform WeChat.

Consumer data standards

Sharing data, especially confidential financial data, does give rise to important security issues. Data61 has been appointed by the government to develop standards that will underpin Open Banking and the CDR, a draft of which was recently released.

The standards are guided by a series of outcome principles stipulating that APIs will be secure, use open standards, provide a good customer experience and provide a good developer experience. Technical principles include that APIs will be RESTful, simple, consistent and backwards compatible. Data61 is currently seeking feedback on the draft rules.


Read more: Fintech firms freed to compete with banks, but disruption yet to come


It is no secret that millennials tend to trust the digital world more than they trust their banks. And, as a result of the banking inquiry, Australian banks are having their cultures questioned and their unethical business practices exposed. New waves of products offered by FinTechs are likely to spur banks to compete in a space where they have been slow to innovate.

The introduction of open APIs will help Australia keep up with global trends in the growing digital economy. Whether that means we’ll soon be seeing an Australian version of WeChat’s comprehensive payment system remains to be seen.

ref. How the open banking API could transform financial services to benefit consumers – http://theconversation.com/how-the-open-banking-api-could-transform-financial-services-to-benefit-consumers-99753]]>

It’s time Australia’s conscientious objectors of WW1 were remembered, too

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rick Sarre, Adjunct Professor of Law and Criminal Justice, University of South Australia

As we commemorate the centenary of the Armistice, it is appropriate that we pay tribute to the thousands of largely forgotten people who formed a significant social and political coalition at the time of the first world war: those who fought against conscription, and against the war, including a significant number of conscientious objectors.

Military registration and training for all Australian men aged 18 to 60 was compulsory from 1911. But there was no provision in Australian law that required men to enlist for active service overseas. Signing up for such service was voluntary, and with the promise of a short war, there was no difficulty for recruitment officers finding their men.


Read more: World politics explainer: The Great War (WWI)


However, as news of the horrendous losses at Gallipoli from April to December 1915 and the slaughter on the Western Front from mid-1916 filtered back to Australia, enthusiasm for overseas duties began to wane.

Australia was not meeting its recruitment target. Only about a third of eligible men were volunteering.

Labor Prime Minister Billy Hughes determined that the only way to increase enlistment numbers was to impose conscription. He decided to hold a plebiscite (sometimes referred to as the “conscription referendum”) to carry out what he saw as his obligation to the Empire, and to do so with the consent of the Australian people.

But there were many vociferous voices from the trade union movement, the Labor Party and an active women’s coalition campaigning for a “no” vote. Religious adherents, too, found themselves well represented in the “no” campaign, with many Catholics, Quakers, Christadelphians, Adventists and Jehovah’s Witnesses in the forefront of the pacifist movement.

Archbishop Daniel Mannix. National Museum of Australia

Archbishop Daniel Mannix was a leader in the Catholic Church in Melbourne. He took a strong stand against conscription, adding that the war was “just an ordinary trade war” driven by trade jealousy. Conscription, he maintained, would simply reinforce “class versus class” social injustices.

Remember, too, that the British had, in April 1916, put down with force the Easter Rising in Ireland. Almost 2,000 Irish were sent to internment camps. Most of the leaders of the Rising were executed in May 1916. Mannix was Irish-born.

Margaret Thorp, a Quaker, was another strong voice in opposition to the war, and critical of the support for the war by the mainstream churches. A member of the Anti-Military Service League, she later joined others to inaugurate a branch of the Women’s Peace Army in Australia and, later, a branch of the Sisterhood of International Peace that supported the international No-Conscription Fellowship.

On October 28, 1916, Prime Minister Hughes put the conscription ballot to the vote. It was defeated by a margin of 3%.

The following year, Britain sought a sixth Australian division for active service. Australia had to provide 7,000 men per month to meet this request. But voluntary recruitment continued to lag behind requirements. On December 20, 1917, Hughes put a second conscription ballot to the people. It, too, was defeated, this time by a larger margin (7%). The war continued to the Armistice with volunteers only.

By the end of the war, over 215,000 Australians had been killed, wounded or gassed. Only one out of every three Australian men who were sent abroad arrived home physically unscathed.

An anti-conscription poster. Parliament of Australia

During the 20th century, Australian law developed a variety of positions on conscientious objection. Such status today relies on an applicant meeting the requirements of the Defence Act 1903 as amended in 1939. Conscientious objectors need not have deeply held religious beliefs. But they must be able to ground their objection in moral beliefs, and be able to articulate them.

People who were not able to be officially recognised as conscientious objectors in Australia during the first world war were prosecuted when they failed to register. While historical records are impossible to collate accurately on this subject, some 27,749 prosecutions had been launched across the country by June 30, 1915. Stories of the tragic social consequences for these men, and for conscientious objectors, are legion. Objectors particularly were often maligned as cowards and self-seekers. But the historical records illustrate that theirs was not an easy path. They did not lack courage. In many respects, the choices made by conscientious objectors required a greater determination and certainty of belief than was needed by the men who enlisted voluntarily.


Read more: Only the conscription referendums made Australia’s Great War experience different


There is a permanent memorial for conscientious objectors in Tavistock Square, London, and one is planned for Edinburgh, Scotland. There is a tribute at the National World War I Museum and Memorial in Kansas City for the pacifists Joseph and Michael Hofer, who died in Leavenworth Prison in 1918 while incarcerated for refusing military service.

It is regrettable that Australia has no public memorial to our forebears who campaigned against compulsory military service, and the war itself, for reasons of conscience and faith. As we commemorate the centenary of the Armistice, there is no better time to remedy that oversight.

ref. It’s time Australia’s conscientious objectors of WW1 were remembered, too – http://theconversation.com/its-time-australias-conscientious-objectors-of-ww1-were-remembered-too-106169]]>

100 years since the WWI Armistice, Remembrance Day remains a powerful reminder of the cost of war

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Romain Fathi, Lecturer, History, Flinders University

One hundred years ago – on November 11 1918, at the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month – millions of men laid down their guns.

This was Armistice Day, the end of the first world war.

Germany, the last belligerent standing among the Central Powers, had collapsed militarily, economically and politically.

Armistice Day – later known as Remembrance Day – has since been commemorated every year.


Read more: World politics explainer: The Great War (WWI)


Ending the war

On November 11 1918, aboard Marshall Ferdinand Foch’s train carriage, a few plenipotentiaries of Germany and the main Allied nations signed a short document that ordered a ceasefire, effective from 11am. In doing so, they put an end to the global carnage that had started in August 1914 and had killed more than 10 million combatants and 6 million civilians.

French Marshal Ferdinand Foch (second from the right), in Compiègne Forest, minutes after the signature of the Armistice. Wikicommons

Notably, though this document stopped combat, it did not formally end the war. Indeed, Germany had sought an armistice in order to negotiate a formal peace treaty. This peace was secured eight months later, on June 28 1919, at the Paris Peace Conference.

The Armistice also didn’t resolve localised conflicts resulting from the war. These raged on in parts of Eastern Europe and the Middle East through to the early 1920s.

But for most nations involved in the first world war, the armistice of November 11 was the day the fighting finally stopped, which is why it has become a major commemorative event across the globe.

The first Armistice Day

On the first Armistice Day, November 11 1918, crowds cheered on the streets of Allied countries such as Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the US, France and Belgium. People rejoiced at the ending of a period of total mobilisation that had affected every aspect of their lives, inflicting unprecedented hardship on soldiers and civilians alike.

But for those who had lost the war, the news of the armistice came as a shock. While some were relieved the conflict had ended, the sudden collapse of the German, Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman empires provided a breeding ground for revolutionary movements and further internal conflicts. For them, Armistice Day was a moment of anguish and bitterness.

Cheering crowds on Armistice Day.

The second Armistice Day (1919)

After its first iteration, Armistice Day became a more formal and sombre commemoration, and was often held at war memorials. People were encouraged to remember the dead with respect and solemnity.

A dedicated time for silence became part of the ceremony and has been central to Remembrance Day commemorations ever since. In Britain, King George V requested a two-minute silence, which was observed from 1919 onward across the Commonwealth. In France, the minute de silence was instituted in 1922.

Silence meant time for contemplation, reflection, introspection and, above all, respect. In multifaith empires where atheism was progressing, the gesture could conveniently replace a prayer.

Remembrance Day was deemed a civic duty for many, and the veterans would often take a lead role in its commemoration.

From then on, Armistice Day increasingly became known as Remembrance Day. The focus was no longer on the armistice and the end of the war: it became a day to remember, grieve and honour those who had died.

Two-minute silence, Oxford Street, November 11 1919. Gallica, BNF

The notion of sacrifice became central to Remembrance Day, as those still alive tried to give meaning to, and cope with, the deaths of their loved ones. The language of memory honoured the deceased, acknowledging that they had not sacrificed themselves in vain but for institutions and values such as country, king, God, freedom and so on. However, as time passed, this language came to be increasingly contested.

Remembrance Day: the inter-wars and the second world war

Remembrance Day was also used to protest against war in general. Some mourners and veterans refused to attend official commemorations. In doing so, they showcased their anger at the state-sanctioned carnage that the first world war had been. In France and Belgium in the 1920s and 1930s, for instance, large pacifist movements used Remembrance Day and some war memorials to stress the futility of war and nationalism.

Such Remembrance Day protests were of openly political nature, and historical contexts altered the meaning of these demonstrations. Across Nazi-occupied Europe, clandestine Remembrance Day ceremonies were used as a sign of protest against German occupation during the second world war, and to remind them they had been defeated in the previous war.

Remembrance Day now

Today, the commemoration of the November 11 armistice is marked in many countries across the globe (mostly those on the “winning” side of the war) under various names: Armistice Day, Remembrance Day, Poppy Day, 11 Novembre, National Independence Day or Veterans Day. For some, the day is a public holiday.

Every state celebrating Remembrance Day grants different meanings to its commemoration. Speeches in France deplore the loss of lives and insist on the value of peace during official ceremonies. In Poland, however, the day marks the rebirth of the nation and a time to celebrate.

In the US, the commemoration is centred on the veterans of all wars, while in Australia few people attend Remembrance Day. The crowds prefer attending Anzac Day on April 25 – a more patriotic service and a public holiday.

Langemark German military cemetery, Belgium. Shutterstock

As the first world war fades further away in time, one way to keep remembering those who died in this conflict has been to progressively include the commemoration of the dead of more recent conflicts in Remembrance Day ceremonies, as is the case in the US, the UK and France. The commemoration therefore remains relevant to a larger population but also prevents the multiplication of special days for official state commemorations.

Today, as in the past, protests continue to be a component of Remembrance Day. Recently, a man was fined £50 in the UK for burning a poppy on Remembrance Day to protest against current deployment of British forces. The commemoration has also been mobilised by different far-right movements across Europe to advance their agendas.

A centenary of remembrance

A hundred years after the event, Remembrance Day and first world war memorials still provide a time and place to remember those who fought and fell in the conflict. For the most senior citizens among us, this is their parents’ generation; a past they still live with.

On November 11 2018, to mark the 100th anniversary of the end of one of the world’s deadliest conflicts, you may choose to attend a Remembrance Day service. You may choose not to, or not even notice that it is Remembrance Day.

During the minute of silence, you may reflect on the meaning of war and its long-lasting impacts, its futility or its glory, think about a family member, or the weather. This degree of versatility partly explains the endurance of Remembrance Day. An official and public event, but also a personal gesture that everyone can embed with their own meaning.

ref. 100 years since the WWI Armistice, Remembrance Day remains a powerful reminder of the cost of war – http://theconversation.com/100-years-since-the-wwi-armistice-remembrance-day-remains-a-powerful-reminder-of-the-cost-of-war-103232]]>

Before replacing a carer with a robot, we need to assess the pros and cons

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Helen Dickinson, Associate Professor, Public Service Research Group, UNSW

If you have seen science fiction television series such as Humans or Westworld, you might be imagining a near future where intelligent, humanoid robots play an important role in meeting the needs of people, including caring for children or older relatives.

The reality is that current technologies in this sector are not yet very humanoid, but nonetheless, a range of robots are being used in our care services including disability, aged care, education, and health.

Our new research, published today by the Australia and New Zealand School of Government, finds that governments need to carefully plan for the inevitable expansion of these technologies to safeguard vulnerable people.

Care crisis and the rise of robots

Australia, like a number of other advanced liberal democracies, is anticipating a future with an older population, with a more complex mix of chronic illness and disease. A number of care organisations already operate under tight fiscal constraints and report challenges recruiting enough qualified staff.


Read more: Robots in health care could lead to a doctorless hospital


In the future, fewer numbers in the working-age population and increased numbers of retirees will compound this problem. If we then add to this equation the fact consumer expectations are increasing, it starts to look like future care services are facing a somewhat perfect storm.

Robots are increasingly becoming a feature of our care services, capable of fulfilling a number of roles from manual tasks through to social interaction. Their wider use has been heralded as an important tool in dealing with our impending care crisis. Countries such as Japan see robots playing a key role in filling their workforce gaps in care services.

A number of Australian residential aged care facilities are using Paro, a therapeutic robot that looks and sounds like a baby harp seal. Paro interacts by moving its head, heavily-lashed wide eyes and flippers, making sounds and responding to particular forms of touch on its furry coat.

Paro has been used extensively in aged care in the United States, Europe and parts of Asia, typically among people living with dementia.

Nao is an interactive companion robot developed in a humanoid form but standing just 58cm tall in height.

Nao acts as a little friend. By Veselin Borishev

Nao has gone through a number of different iterations and has been used for a variety of different applications worldwide, including to help children engaged in paediatric rehabilitation and in various educational and research institutes.


Read more: Robots can help young patients engage in rehab


The double-edged sword of technology

Robots are capable of enhancing productivity and improving quality and safety. But there is a potential for misuse or unintended consequences.

Concerns have been expressed about the use of robots potentially reducing privacy, exposing people to data hacking, or even inflicting physical harm.

We also lack evidence about the potential long-term implications of human-machine interactions.


Read more: We need robots that can improvise, but it’s not easy to teach them right from wrong


Our research explored the roles robots should and, even more critically, should not play in care delivery. We also investigated the role of government as a steward in shaping this framework through interviews with 35 policy, health care and academic experts from across Australia and New Zealand.

We found that despite these technologies already being in use in aged care facilities, schools and hospitals, government agencies don’t typically think strategically about their use and often aren’t aware of the risks and potential unintended consequences.

This means the sector is largely being driven by the interests of technology suppliers. Providers in some cases are purchasing these technologies to differentiate them in the market, but are also not always engaging in critical analysis.

Our study participants identified that robots were “leveraged” as something new and attractive to keep young people interested in learning, or as “a conversation starter” with prospective families exploring aged care providers.

Robots can help draw in potential clients. PaO_STUDIO/Shutterstock

But there are significant risks as the technologies become more developed. Drawing on research in other emerging technologies, our participants raised concerns about addiction and reliance on the robot. What would happen if the robot broke or became obsolete, and who would be responsible if a robot caused harm?

As artificial intelligence develops, robots will develop different levels of capabilities for “knowing” the human they are caring for. This raises concerns about potential hacking and security issues. On the flip side, it raises questions of inequity if different levels of care available at different price points.

Participants were also concerned about the unintended consequences of robot relationships on human relationships. Families may feel that the robot proxy is sufficient companionship, for instance, and leave their aged relative socially isolated.

What should governments do?

Government has an important role to play by regulating the rapidly developing market.

We suggest a responsive regulatory approach, which relies on the sector to self- and peer-regulate, and to escalate issues as they arise for subsequent regulation. Such engagement will require education, behaviour change, and a variety of regulatory measures that go beyond formal rules.


Read more: Asimov’s Laws won’t stop robots harming humans so we’ve developed a better solution


Government has an important role in helping providers understand the different technologies available and their evidence base. Care providers often struggle to access good evidence about technologies and their effectiveness. As such, they’re largely being informed by the market, rather than high quality evidence.

Many of the stakeholders we spoke to for our research also see a role for government in helping generate an evidence base that’s accessible to providers. This is particularly important where technologies may have been tested, but in a different national context.

Many respondents called for establishment of industry standards to protect against data and privacy threats, and the loss of jobs.

Finally, governments have a responsibility to ensure vulnerable people aren’t exploited or harmed by technologies. And they must also ensure robots don’t replace human care and lead to greater social isolation.

ref. Before replacing a carer with a robot, we need to assess the pros and cons – http://theconversation.com/before-replacing-a-carer-with-a-robot-we-need-to-assess-the-pros-and-cons-106160]]>

One in four Australians are lonely, which affects their physical and mental health

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle H Lim, Senior Lecturer and Clinical Psychologist, Swinburne University of Technology

One in four Australians are lonely, our new report has found, and it’s not just a problem among older Australians – it affects both genders and almost all age groups.

The Australian Loneliness Report, released today by my colleagues and I at the Australian Psychological Society and Swinburne University, found one in two (50.5%) Australians feel lonely for at least one day in a week, while more than one in four (27.6%) feel lonely for three or more days.

Our results come from a survey of 1,678 Australians from across the nation. We used a comprehensive measure of loneliness to assess how it relates to mental health and physical health outcomes.


Read more: Politics with Michelle Grattan: Andrew Giles on the growing issue of loneliness


We found nearly 55% of the population feel they lack companionship at least sometime. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Australians who are married or in a de facto relationship are the least lonely, compared to those who are single, separated or divorced.

While Australians are reasonably connected to their friends and families, they don’t have the same relationships with their neighbours. Almost half of Australians (47%) reported not having neighbours to call on for help, which suggests many of us feel disengaged in our neighbourhoods.

Impact on mental and physical health

Lonely Australians, when compared with their less lonely counterparts, reported higher social anxiety and depression, poorer psychological health and quality of life, and fewer meaningful relationships and social interactions.

Loneliness increases a person’s likelihood of experiencing depression by 15.2% and the likelihood of social anxiety increases by 13.1%. Those who are lonelier also report being more socially anxious during social interactions.

This fits with previous research, including a study of more than 1,000 Americans which found lonelier people reported more severe social anxiety, depression, and paranoia when followed up after three months.

Older Australians are less socially anxious than younger folks. Fabio Neo Amato

Interestingly, Australians over 65 were less lonely, less socially anxious, and less depressed than younger Australians.

This is consistent with previous studies that show older people fare better on particular mental health and well-being indicators.

(Though it’s unclear whether this is the case for adults over 75, as few participants in our study were aged in the late 70s and over).

Younger adults, on the other hand, reported significantly more social anxiety than older Australians.

The evidence outlining the negative effects of loneliness on physical health is also growing. Past research has found loneliness increases the likelihood of an earlier death by 26% and has negative consequences on the health of your heart, your sleep, and levels of inflammation.


Read more: Loneliness is a health issue, and needs targeted solutions


Our study adds to this body of research, finding people with higher rates of loneliness are more likely to have more headaches, stomach problems, and physical pain. This is not surprising as loneliness is associated with increased inflammatory responses.

What can we do about it?

Researchers are just beginning to understand the detrimental effects of loneliness on our health, social lives and communities but many people – including service providers – are unaware. There are no guidelines or training for service providers.

So, even caring and highly trained staff at emergency departments may trivialise the needs of lonely people presenting repeatedly and direct them to resources that aren’t right.

Increasing awareness, formalised training, and policies are all steps in the right direction to reduce this poor care.

For some people, simple solutions such as joining shared interest groups (such as book clubs) or shared experienced groups (such as bereavement or carers groups) may help alleviate their loneliness.

But for others, there are more barriers to overcome, such as stigma, discrimination, and poverty.

Shared interest groups can help some people feel less alone. Danielle Cerullo

Many community programs and social services focus on improving well-being and quality of life for lonely people. By tackling loneliness, they may also improve the health of Australians. But without rigorous evaluation of these health outcomes, it’s difficult to determine their impact.

We know predictors of loneliness can include genetics, brain functioning, mental health, physical health, community, work, and social factors. And we know predictors can differ between groups – for example, young versus old.

But we need to better measure and understand these different predictors and how they influence each other over time. Only with Australian data can we predict who is at risk and develop effective solutions.


Read more: The deadly truth about loneliness


There are some things we can do in the meantime.

We need a campaign to end loneliness for all Australians. Campaigns can raise awareness, reduce stigma, and empower not just the lonely person but also those around them.

Loneliness campaigns have been successfully piloted in the United Kingdom and Denmark. These campaigns don’t just raise awareness of loneliness; they also empower lonely and un-lonely people to change their social behaviours.

A great example of action arising from increased awareness comes from the Royal College of General Practitioners, which developed action plans to assist lonely patients presenting in primary care. The college encouraged GPs to tackle loneliness with more than just medicine; it prompted them to ask what matters to the lonely person rather than what is the matter with the lonely person.

Australia lags behind other countries but loneliness is on the agenda. Multiple Australian organisations have come together after identifying a need to generate Australian-specific data, increase advocacy, and develop an awareness campaign. But only significant, sustained government investment and bipartisan support will ensure this promising work results in better outcomes for lonely Australians.

ref. One in four Australians are lonely, which affects their physical and mental health – http://theconversation.com/one-in-four-australians-are-lonely-which-affects-their-physical-and-mental-health-106231]]>

The benefits – and pitfalls – of working in isolation

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Agustin Chevez, Adjunct Research Fellow, Centre For Design Innovation, Swinburne University of Technology

In October a researcher at the remote Bellingshausen Station in Antarctica allegedly stabbed a colleague. Some reports attributed the incident to the victim giving away the endings of books the attacker was reading.

Other reports identify the cabin fever effect as a possible contributing factor. During extended periods in isolation and confined conditions, such as at a station in Antarctica, people can become restlessness, bored and irritated.

These effects, however, are not limited to the small number of scientists living in cabin-like environments in remote locations. Isolation can just as easily affect people on the move, such as the drivers of the 3.5 million freight vehicles registered in Australia. Studies cite social isolation as a recurring theme and a cause of mental health problems and dysfunctional family relationships for truck drivers.

Interestingly, knowledge workers are also increasingly prone to suffering from isolation. This is because the ability to work “anywhere, anytime” has led to the development of new organisational structures that have increased the effects of isolation by increasing the social distance within a distributed workforce.

Depression, stress, lack of motivation and eventually burnout are all possible consequences of isolation. Other effects include experiencing fears of missing out on crucial events or decisions being made by others elsewhere – colloquially known as the feeling of out of sight, out of mind.

The impact of isolation in health has been compared to the reduction in lifespan similar to that caused by smoking 15 cigarettes a day. If the sit-to-stand desk was the response to the “sitting is the new smoking” motto, co-working is the response to isolation.

The growth of the gig economy brought concerns of increased likelihood of people working in isolation beyond that of teleworkers already discussed above. In this regard, the proliferation of co-working environments should not be surprising. To a large extent it’s due to their ability to provide a social environment for sole practitioners who would otherwise be working in isolation.

In pursuit of solitude

Isolation is an interpretation of one’s sense of aloneness. It is a feeling independent of the condition of being alone. While aloneness is the objective state of not having anyone around, isolation can be experienced in the middle of a crowd – if, for example, you have nothing in common with them, or do not share a common language.

Isolation is the negative side of aloneness, which leads to loneliness.

On the other hand, solitude is the positive manifestation of aloneness. An important factor in converting aloneness into solitude is that it is voluntary, instead of imposed. As such, artists, writers and scientists have described solitude as their most creative and productive state.

The differences between loneliness and solitude can be subtle. One study has identified that our understanding of these nuances develops with age.

Agustin Chevez walked from Melbourne to Sydney to test the pros (and cons) of isolation. Agustin Chevez, Author provided (No reuse)

Aloneness as a thinking tool

I have a particular interest in aloneness, both as an academic and architect. I specialise in the study of work and the environments that contain it. Specifically, I am interested in aloneness as a mechanism to increase the diversity of ideas.

This might seem at odds with the thinking of times when the value of collaborative work in Australia has been estimated at A$46 billion per year. However, the message of “the more, the merrier” when it comes to collaboration is increasingly being qualified and the downside of collaboration overload discussed.

Inspired by the development of diversity in species attributed to isolation (see iguanas at the Galapagos Islands), I walked alone from Melbourne to Sydney in the hope that I could incubate an idea for the duration of the 42-day journey. I was incubating the idea of a new sense of purpose in a post-artificially intelligent world.

I carried two backpacks weighting up to 20kg, depending on the amount of food and water I needed, or if my tent got wet. I camped, or stayed in pubs, Airbnbs and roadside motels from a bygone era.

Camping between Melbourne and Sydney. Agustin Chevez, Author provided

Most people asked “why?” and what charity I was walking for (I wasn’t). What I learned is more complicated. But, yes, I did find that walking in solitude can be a great thinking tool. It is necessary, however, to be able to go past boredom – and that is not easy.

I mostly enjoyed my solitude, but I did experience loneliness during my trek. Interestingly, the literature suggests that isolation can also lead to lack of “social barometers”, making it difficult for people to determine how they should behave in work settings. I experienced a version of this as soon as I shared my first meal back in “civilisation” and realised how much I had relaxed my eating etiquette.

The nature of a specific job, like a scientist in Antarctica or a truck driver, might impose aloneness, or else it might be a side effect of mobile technologies or the emergence of the gig economy and other modern working styles. In such cases, the consequences of isolation must be managed.

At the same time, however, we should create opportunities for solitude in work settings, by the design of the space or of our jobs. In doing so, we might increase the diversity of ideas and ultimately our chances to innovate.

ref. The benefits – and pitfalls – of working in isolation – http://theconversation.com/the-benefits-and-pitfalls-of-working-in-isolation-105350]]>

Speaking with: Chris Ho and Edgar Liu about diversity and high density in our cities

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dallas Rogers, Program Director, Master of Urbanism, School of Architecture, Design and Planning, University of Sydney


This is a podcast discussing topics raised in our series, Australian Cities in the Asian Century. These articles draw on research, just published in a special issue of Geographical Research, into how Australian cities are being influenced by the rise of China and associated flows of people, ideas and capital between China and Australia.


Migration and population growth are hot-button issues in Australian politics at the moment. State and federal election campaigns have and will focus on them for probably years to come, and it’s not just a local phenomenon: by 2030 it’s estimated 60% of the world’s population will live in cities.

Most of the time discussions about the impacts are focused on external pressures – things like road congestion and infrastructure investment – but as more and more people are living in high-density housing, issues of cultural diversity and how we live together in such close proximity are just as important.

How do we make sure we can live comfortably and respect each other? And how could policy change the sense of ownership we have over ever smaller personal spaces?

Dallas Rogers speaks with Christina Ho and Edgar Liu about the changing ways we’re living in Australian cities, and how little attention has been given to what’s happening inside the apartment buildings of our cities.

Music

ref. Speaking with: Chris Ho and Edgar Liu about diversity and high density in our cities – http://theconversation.com/speaking-with-chris-ho-and-edgar-liu-about-diversity-and-high-density-in-our-cities-106352]]>

If Australia cares about Pacific nations, we should also invest in their care givers

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elizabeth Hill, Senior Lecturer, University of Sydney

Australia’s declaration of renewed interest in its Pacific Island neighbours, announced by Scott Morrison yesterday, needs to be expressed in more ways than building consulates, training military or funding grand infrastructure projects in telecommunications, transport and water.

Just as much priority should be given to investing in child care and elder care.

Why? Because just four months ago the Australian government introduced the Pacific Labour Scheme as a cornerstone of its foreign policy agenda to build stronger economic partnerships with Pacific nations.

The scheme currently allows 2,000 workers from Kiribati, Nauru, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu and Vanuatu to work temporarily in Australia. That number may grow. It builds on the Seasonal Worker Programme, introduced in 2012, that allows in roughly the same number to work in agriculture and some areas of hospitality.



It is meant to be win-win. On the one hand, it helps meet demand for workers in rural and regional Australia. On the other, it provides jobs, skills and income for Pacific island workers. Theoretically it can promote economic development in workers’ home countries and deepen friendships between those nations and Australia.

But only if we heed the bitter lessons from other parts of the world about the high human cost of temporary labour migration schemes done badly.

Though organisations such as the World Bank and many academics advocate the benefits of labour mobility, careful attention should be paid to the families and communities temporary workers leave behind.

Caring for those left behind

The schemes that led to the Pacific Labour Scheme were primarily focused on providing jobs for seasonal farm workers.

This new scheme is meant to promote gender equality in Australia’s development program by also meeting demand for workers in non-seasonal, highly feminised sectors – such as aged, disability and child care, hospitality and tourism. It is open to workers aged between 21 and 45.

It is therefore likely that many of the migrant workers will be mothers and primary caregivers to young children.

Although there is no single model of good parenting, and many migrant workers find ways to maintain ties with their children, parental absence can affect the physical and emotional care for children, disrupt education and even contribute to familial breakdown.

There is extensive international evidence of the social and emotional implications for children who remain at home when their parents migrate for work.

The UN Convention on the Rights of the Child, ratified by Australia in 1990, commits governments to consider the best interests of children directly or indirectly affected by government policies and actions.

The International Labour Organisation’s Decent Work Agenda makes specific recommendations for member countries, such as Australia, about workers’ familial rights. It argues the potential social costs of fractured families and communities from labour migration “are without a doubt at least as significant as those related to the more measurable economic costs. The effects are almost never gender-neutral.”


No mistaking the optics: Australian prime minister Scott Morrison announces his Pacific pivot at Lavarack Barracks in Townsville on November 8. AAP Image/Michael Chambers

A policy blank slate

Australia has no significant history of temporary or “guest” worker programs. This means it effectively has a policy “blank slate”. We can learn from the well-documented pitfalls of programs elsewhere and develop a temporary labour migration program that is global best practice.


Read more: Why yet another visa for farm work makes no sense


The optimal policy solution is to permit families to accompany temporary workers. This would be consistent with Australia’s other labour migration visas.

Where separation does occur, the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child obliges governments to design workplace policies that limit the impact of family separation. These could include travel allowances for annual and emergency visits, carers leave and workplace support for regular communication with children and family.

Developing home communities

Temporary labour migration schemes should contribute to the development of migrant workers and their home countries.

The Australian government touts the Pacific Labour Scheme as a means to transfer skills to Pacific Island countries. But there is also potential for both “brain drain” and “care drain”.

Australia can address this by investing in child and elder care in Pacific countries.

Support for local care sectors would give relief to alternative caregivers (grandmothers, aunts, older siblings) when parents are away. It would mean jobs for returning migrants. It would be the basis for transferring skills to other workers. It would make more local workers ready to work in Australia.

If Australia wants to be a good neighbour it should seize this opportunity to develop a sustainable temporary labour migration scheme.

Putting Pacific Islander workers, their children, families and communities first will show Scott Morrison is serious about opening “a new chapter in relations with our Pacific family”.

This piece draws on research published in The Pacific Labour Scheme and Transnational Family Life: Policy Brief, by Elizabeth Hill, Matt Withers and Rasika Jayasuriya.

ref. If Australia cares about Pacific nations, we should also invest in their care givers – http://theconversation.com/if-australia-cares-about-pacific-nations-we-should-also-invest-in-their-care-givers-102780]]>

Vital Signs: Why we distrust the consumer price index

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Holden, Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, UNSW

Officially, Australia’s rate of inflation is 1.9%.

It’s the lowest it has been on a sustained basis since the 1950s and early 1960s.

But try to tell that to anyone and they will laugh at you, or worse.

The Bureau of Statistics is careful to say that the consumer price index isn’t a measure of living costs.

It creates that slightly differently, producing a collection of less-reported indexes that were updated this week.

On these measures, over the past year living costs have climbed 2% for households headed by an employee, 2.2% for households headed by Australians on most types of benefits, 2.3% for households headed by age pensioners, and also 2.3% for households headed by self-funded retirees.

The main difference between the consumer price index and the living cost indexes is that “living costs” include interest paid on mortgages whereas “consumer prices” do not.

Regardless, most of us would be pretty certain that even on these measures, what’s reported is too low.

We’re irrational

In part, this is because we are not rational. As Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler has pointed out, we often engage in “mental accounting”.

In general this means we notice losses more than gains. In this context, it means we focus more on the things that have gone up in price than on those that have gone down or remained unchanged.

Also, our mental basket of goods is generally not the same as the basket of goods the bureau measures, even though it should be.

It’s not our basket

Four times a year in multiple locations throughout each capital city the bureau attempts to collect information about the prices of the thousands of goods (and some services) that make the “basket” it thinks represent they typical household’s purchases.

The basket is divided into about 100 subgroups; things such as bread, milk, eggs, fruit, men’s footwear, women’s footwear, men’s clothes, women’s clothes, restaurant meals, electricity and so on.

Because it can’t price everything, it zeros in on a few representative items within each category.

For meat and fish the ABS includes beef sausages (1kg) and pink salmon (210g can). For processed fruit and vegetables it includes sliced pineapple (450g can) and frozen peas (500g pkt).

If you buy something different, the exact changes in the prices you pay won’t be fed into either the consumer price index or your living cost index, but the indexes are likely to move in line with your living costs in any case.

Things get left out

Many things are missing from the index, among them recreational drugs, gambling and prostitution.

Being bean counters, rather than priests, the bureau says it excludes these sorts of items on practical rather than moral grounds.

Gambling is excluded as it is difficult to establish the service or utility that households derive from gambling, and thus to determine an appropriate price measure. Recreational drugs and prostitution are both excluded as it is very difficult and indeed dangerous to obtain estimates of prices and expenditures, or to measure quality change.

Other things are excluded because their prices are deemed to be too volatile. The price of bank deposits and loans was removed from the main index a few years back.

And goods keep getting better

Where our views about prices are most likely to differ from the bureau’s is where goods get better.

The bureau factors quality improvements into the measures prices it reports. If, for instance, your next mobile phone costs as much as your last one but includes extra features such as more memory or an improved camera, the ABS will report that it has fallen in price.


Read more: Moore’s Law is 50 years old but will it continue?


This sort of adjustment for quality makes sense when adjusting down the price of a can of baked beans because it has been replaced by one slightly bigger, but is a grey area when it comes to improved features.

If the speed of the chip on your next laptop doubles, does that really mean the laptop is twice as good as the old one and should be said to have halved in price? Or should its price be recorded as having fallen by a lesser amount, or not at all seeing as the price hasn’t changed and it remains a standard laptop?

Often older models with lesser features are often no longer available. It’s impossible to buy a cheaper replacement.

The CPI is infrequent

The Reserve Bank is worried about the frequency of the index. It comes out only once a quarter, and up to a month after the quarter has finished.

Every developed country other than Australia and New Zealand releases its index monthly.

Given that the bank considers changing interest rates once every month, and given that the consumer price index is one of the two key measures it uses to guide its decisions (the other is the unemployment rate), a quarterly index leaves it somewhat in the dark and (when things are changing fast) potentially dangerously misled.

The bureau responds that it is prepared to release its index monthly, if it is paid to do it.

The ABS is persuaded there would be a significant benefit from more timely and responsive economic management if a CPI of equivalent quality to the current quarterly index were available monthly. Additional funding will be required to meet the costs involved in compiling a monthly index.

It’s just what we need – bureaucratic blackmail.

But it’s improving

On the positive side, new technologies have allowed more accurate price collection to make the index more precise. A key innovation is the rise of so-called “scanner data”, tracking expenditures at checkouts based on the prices people actually pay.

Scanner data has been used since 2014 and is now responsible for about one quarter of the prices reported. Field officers compile much of the rest using hand-held devices to type in prices they read off supermarket shelves.

The move to scanner data was spearheaded by the work of my UNSW School of Economics colleague Professor Kevin Fox.


Read more: A cashless society and the five forms of mobile payment that will get us there


There is a prospect of it becoming more widespread as more and more purchases are made with debit and credit cards and with point-of-sale software on devices such as tablets at coffee shops.

And important

Whether or not we like what it says, the consumer price index is important and lies behind much of what we do.

A whole range of government payments and duties are indexed to it – these change when the consumer price index changes. Benefits such as Newstart and family payments are indexed as are excise duties such as those on petrol and beer.

Even the private sector relies on the consumer price index to adjust payments under contracts such as rental agreements or construction charges.


Read more: Joe Hockey’s user pays plan for the ABS doesn’t add up


Collecting it is an enormous and painstaking exercise.

Governments of both stripes would do well to remember that when next they think of cutting the bureau’s budget.

ref. Vital Signs: Why we distrust the consumer price index – http://theconversation.com/vital-signs-why-we-distrust-the-consumer-price-index-106150]]>

Friday essay: how Australia’s war art scheme fed national mythologies of WW1

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Margaret Hutchison, Lecturer in History, Australian Catholic University

War is often seen as a death knell for the arts, but during the first world war the Australian government mobilised some of the country’s most renowned expatriate artists to paint the conflict. Hired essentially as eyewitnesses to war, these men were stationed at the front and tasked with creating art on the battlefield.

Will Dyson, Coming Out on the Somme, 1916, charcoal, pencil, brush and wash on paper, 56 x 47.2 cm Australian War Memorial ART02276

The idea of using art to interpret and commemorate the war was first raised by Will Dyson, an Australian expatriate cartoonist working in Britain, who went to the Western Front as Australia’s first official war artist in late 1916. Dyson drew candid studies of Australian soldiers. In images such as Coming Out on the Somme (1916) he deftly captures the glazed detachment and vacant stares of the men who had just returned from, as he described it, “gazing on strange and terrible lands”.

Perhaps sensitive to the public at home, most Australian official artists avoided sketching the graphic violence of the war. But there were some exceptions. Will Longstaff’s sketchbook, for instance, contains an image of a dismembered leg, bone protruding from a mess of flesh and cloth. His composition shows the severed limb in the centre of the sketch with a grassy field of poppies in the background, an arrangement at odds with the human evidence of the impact of war.

Will Longstaff, Study of Dismembered Leg (detail), c. 1918. AWM ART19796.021

By 11 November 1918, the Australian art collection consisted of an eclectic array of images of the battlefield. But it represented a very narrow view of the Australian war experience. Most official artists had been sent to France and Belgium. The eyewitness role of artists – a position they did not challenge – meant they painted only what they observed at the front. As a result, the collection was dominated by paintings of the soldiers and battlefields in Europe. Other theatres of war, such as the Middle East where only George Lambert had been stationed, were represented by much fewer images.

Official artist James Quinn working among the debris of the war on Mont St Quentin, France, 7 September 1918. Australian War Memorial

The focus on the Western Front meant the army was privileged over other services, such as the Navy and Flying Corps. The absence of the Navy was particularly criticised by members of the Australian press at the time, who complained that while Britain and Canada had employed their best artists to paint naval pictures, the Australian Government had done nothing.

The Canadian and British art schemes also made concerted efforts to include the home front in their collections. And they employed women artists, albeit to paint women’s wartime labour, such as workers in factories. Additionally, the Canadian art scheme hired painters from a range of Allied countries, embracing diverse styles and interpretations of the conflict.

The Australian collection was more nationalistic in tone, employing only Australian artists. While some of the nation’s most eminent artists of the day painted for it, lesser known artists, many of whom had served in the Australian Imperial Force, were also commissioned.

Ellis Silas, Roll Call, 1920, oil on canvas, 131.8 x 183.5 cm. AWM

Often images that less skilfully portrayed the war were included because of their eyewitness value, such as works by Ellis Silas, who had served as a signaller on Gallipoli in 1915.

The Australian collection also stood alone in its neglect of the war experience at home and of women artists. Missing from the collection were images of the preparations for conflict, the training camps, the embarkation of troops, women’s wartime efforts and experience, (including their roles as nurses and volunteers in the warzone and as paid or unofficial workers at home), and of the bitter political disputes that divided Australia during the war.

These lacunae in the collection were addressed to some extent in the decades after the war. But even then, the focus remained largely on a battlefield narrative – more narrowly defining “war experience” than either the British or Canadian art.

Artistic liberties

George Lambert’s iconic painting of the Australians climbing the cliffs on Gallipoli at dawn on 25 April 1915 is a fascinating example of post-war mythologising. Despite travelling to the peninsula in early 1919 to study the battlefields and create as accurate a representation as possible, he took some artistic liberties with this canvas.

Veterans complained that the soldiers should be depicted in the peaked cap of the early uniform they had actually worn in 1915. But Lambert painted all the men wearing the slouch hat, which had become synonymous with the Australian soldier, consolidating the painting’s distinctly Australian character.

George Lambert, Anzac, the Landing 1915, 1920–22, oil on canvas, 199.8 x 370.2 cm. AWM ART02873

Other images also show an emerging national mythology. Dyson’s cartoons and sketches, many of which were a powerful indictment of the conduct of the war, represent ideas about an Australian type.

He portrayed the humour associated with the larrikin soldier in images such as Small Talk (1920). Depicting two soldiers in conversation in a bomb crater, he captures their droll joking: “No Brig., I says send me back to the boys – the transport’s no good to me I never joined the war to be a mule’s batman!”

Small Talk, 1920, oil on board, 53.4 x 69 cm. AWM ART02430

Arthur Streeton painted the battlefields where Australian soldiers fought. He saw in soldiering life a deeper and more meaningful example of the development of a particularly Australian masculinity: “It[̓s] extremely novel and exciting over here and it’s the only way in which to form any idea of Australian manhood.”

Arthur Streeton, The Somme Valley Near Corbie, 1919, oil on canvas, 153 x 245.5 cm AWM ART03497

Many official artists drew on the devastated landscape of the battlefield as an allegory for the destruction wrought by war. Taming the Australian bush, a trope popular with Australian audiences before the war, became survival on the battlefields of Europe and the Middle East.

Septimus Power, First Australian Artillery going into the 3rd Battle of Ypres, 1919, oil on canvas, 121.7 x 245 cm. AWM ART03330

George Lambert was the only official artist stationed in the Middle East during the war. He interpreted this theatre in terms of his experience painting the Australian landscape. The light and colours of Australia permeated much of his wartime work, framing the experience of the soldiers and their environment in familiar imagery that made the conflict appear more immediate for audiences at home.

George Lambert, Magdhaba, March 1918, oil on canvas, 51.2 x 61.8 cm. AWM ART09844

Australia did not employ any women as official painters during the war, but female artists created numerous images of their wartime experience, and their images show what the collection might have gained had they been commissioned. Australian born artist Iso Rae’s painting of the military camps in France was later acquired for the collection.

Iso Rae, Cinema Queue, 1916, France, pastel, gouache on grey paper, 47.8 x 60.6 cm. AWM ART19600

Australia’s first world war art collection has been revised and reshaped across the last century and now represents a broader experience of the conflict from a more diverse range of artists. But the works created during and immediately after the war fed into a national mythology that privileged a narrative of the Australian soldier on the battlefield, coming at the expense of a more nuanced story of Australia in the war.

The Australian war art collection is held at The Australian War Memorial.

ref. Friday essay: how Australia’s war art scheme fed national mythologies of WW1 – http://theconversation.com/friday-essay-how-australias-war-art-scheme-fed-national-mythologies-of-ww1-106454]]>

Grattan on Friday: Turnbull tells Liberals to answer that unanswerable question

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Malcolm Turnbull has delivered a hefty blow to the struggling Morrison government by refocusing attention on the one question it has desperately tried to smother.

That is: why was he sacked?

When he appeared on Thursday’s Q&A special, Turnbull was on a dual mission. His neat blue jacket told the story. There would be no reversion to the pre-prime ministerial free-wheeler dressed in leather.

He was there to hold his executioners to account, to ensure they have no escape, from him or from the public. And he was primed to defend his record, to write the history of his three years in office as a story of accomplishment and success. He wants to be defined by what he did, rather than by how badly things ended.

Essentially he presented himself simultaneously as the victim and the victor.

The opening question was predictable but central: “Why aren’t you still prime minister?”

Turnbull’s reply was rehearsed and targeted personally as well as generally.

This was “the question I can’t answer,” he said. “The only people that can answer that are the people that engineered the coup – people like Peter Dutton and TonyAbbott and Greg Hunt and Mathias Cormann – the people who voted for the spill.

“So, there are 45 of them…. They have to answer that question.”

He rammed home the message. People had to be “adults and be accountable”. Members of parliament “have to stand up and be prepared to say why they do things”.

So those who chose “to blow up the government, to bring my prime ministership to an end … they need to really explain why they did it. And none of them have.”


Read more: Grattan on Friday: Now Malcolm Turnbull is the sniper at the window


So much for Scott Morrison arguing the public have gone beyond the “Muppet show”, or defence industry minister Steve Ciobo claiming Australians didn’t care about what had happened.

Labor has kept pressing on the “why” question, even when commentators doubted the tactic, and now Turnbull has given the opposition a load of fresh ammunition.

This makes it harder for ministers to shrug off Labor’s harking back to the coup. To do so drags them into criticism of Turnbull, which is counterproductive.

Once again Bill Shorten is the beneficiary of his opponents’ self-destruction.

Turnbull saw a “fair prospect” of the issue resonating in next year’s election campaign because “Australians are entitled to know the answer”.

In wishing Morrison “all the best in the election”, Turnbull emphasised that he personally was out of parliament and he’d had little to say since he’d left – he’d wanted to give his successor “clear air”.

But there’s an ambivalence in Turnbull’s behaviour towards Morrison. When his own leadership was doomed he helped Morrison beat Dutton. But his intervention is now hurting his successor.

Of course Turnbull’s assertion he’s “out of politics” is disingenuous, or at least premature. What could be more political than Thursday night’s performance?

Apart from injecting new vigor into the issue of his sacking, his critique of the Liberal party’s move to the right was powerful and damaging, encapsulated in his observation about Liberal-minded voters installing like-minded crossbenchers.

He pointed to Mayo, Indi and Wentworth, seats previously solid Liberal. “They are now occupied by three Independents who are all women, who are all small-l liberals, and all of whom, in one way or another, have been involved in the Liberal Party in the past,” he said.

By electing these independents the voters were saying “we are concerned that the Liberal Party is not speaking for small-l liberal values”, he said.

This brings to mind the speculation about a possible high-profile independent emerging in Warringah who could give Tony Abbott a run for his money.

There was much else in the Turnbull hour that was challenging for the government, including his belief the Liberals would have held Wentworth but for the campaign’s “messy” final week, and his criticism of the “blokey” culture of parliament.

Turnbull talked up an extensive legacy for himself, highlighting the achievement of same-sex marriage (though some would give the praise to certain pesky backbenchers). Typically, he wouldn’t cede ground over standing back from the battle in his old seat.

As always with Turnbull, Thursday’s appearance will polarise Liberals, making it uncertain whether it will help or harm his reputation. Enemies will see it as being all about Malcolm. His comments will start another round of divisive debate in the ranks.

But his arguments were potent reminders of the stupidity of what happened in August and the present poor state and situation of the Liberal party.

Morrison this week had to deal with an early manifestation of the hung parliament he now must manage.

Crossbencher Bob Katter saw the opportunity to make some gains for his north Queensland electorate of Kennedy during Morrison’s tour of the state, so the maverick MP suggested he might consider supporting the referral of Liberal MP Chris Crewther to the High Court over a possible section 44 problem.

By Thursday Morrison had met Katter, and extracted a pledge of “ongoing support of the government”. Katter had extracted dollops of money for water projects.

Their respective performances this week emphasised the chalk-and-cheese contrast between the former and current prime ministers, a difference being accentuated by Morrison as he seeks to portray himself as a man of the people.


Read more: View from The Hill: Katter waves Section 44 stick in a ‘notice North Queensland’ moment


Turnbull was critical of the hard right wing media; Morrison in the past few days has done an interview with Alan Jones and a Sky people’s forum in Townsville hosted by Paul Murray.

Turnbull might have had a penchant for trams and trains with selfies but not the faux bus tour with cheesy videos.

But as Turnbull said of the man who’s inherited the fallout of the August “madness”: “He has dealt himself a very tough hand of cards, and now he has to play them … he has to get on with it.”

With Morrison it is not so matter of getting on with it – he’s hyperactive – but of precisely what it is that he’s getting on with.

ref. Grattan on Friday: Turnbull tells Liberals to answer that unanswerable question – http://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-turnbull-tells-liberals-to-answer-that-unanswerable-question-106668]]>

Kanaky independence campaign rolls on … encouraged by ballot result

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David Robie, who reported from New Caledonia several times during the 1980s for Islands Business magazine, The Australian, New Zealand Times and other media, returned to the French Pacific possession to observe last weekend’s historic referendum. He was also on board the Rainbow Warrior, the Greenpeace environmental ship that was bombed by French secret agents during the height of “les évènements”. He reflects in the second of two articles.

PART 2: By David Robie in Nouméa

A cartoon published by Nouméa’s daily newspaper, Les Nouvelles Calédoniennes, on the eve of the historic independence referendum in New Caledonia at the weekend caught my eye. Noting that thanks to the referendum, people throughout the world – with the possible exception of at least New Zealand whose media was largely absent – were talking about New Caledonia.

“We’re demanding one referendum a month,” says a travel agent.

A touch cynical perhaps, but this caricatured sentiment contrasts with the anti-independence parties that want to scotch the next two referendums – due in 2020 and 2022 – provided for under the 1998 Nouméa Accord. This agreement was an updated version of the original Matignon Accord that ended the civil unrest of the 1980s and opened the door to long-term stability and progress.

NEW CALEDONIA INDEPENDENCE VOTE: WHAT NEXT?

The three anti-independence parties, Les Republicains led by Sonia Backès (New Caledonia’s version of Marine le Pen?), Rassemblement and Caledonie Ensemble, reckon that the people have spoken and there is now no need of further referendums.

They were shocked that the indépendantistes did so well given that they had already written off the “declining” demand for independence and were confidently predicting a crushing 70/30.

-Partners-

In the end, the vote was remarkably close, reflecting the success of the pro-independence Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS) and its National Union for Independence (UNI) partner in mobilising voters, particularly the youth.

The referendum choice was simple and stark. Voters simply had to respond yes or no to the question: “Do you want New Caledonia to attain full sovereignty and become independent?”

Credible independence vote
The “no” response slipped to a 56.4 percent vote while the “yes” vote wrested a credible 43.6 percent share with a record 80 percent turnout.

The final vote count … an unexpectedly close result between the “no” and “yes” vote, offering hope for the Kanaks. Image: Caledonia TV

The encouraging yes vote is even more remarkable when it is taken into account the demographic gerrymandering by the French government that ensured the indigenous Kanaks – who have ruled by France for 165 years since New Caledonia was declared a penal colony in 1853   – would remain a minority in their homeland and in this vote.

More than 20,000 convicts were shipped to New Caledonia in the 19th and early 20th centuries, including Muslim rebels fighting against colonisation in Algeria, and dissidents from the 1870 Paris commune. Later migrants included Japanese, Javanese and Tonkinese (North Vietnamese) labourers in the nickel mines.

Japanese, Javanese and Tonkinese migrants among the early nickel mine workers and settlers as portrayed in Nouméa’s City Museum. Image: David Robie/PMC

Of the 174,154 registered referendum voters, 80,120 were Kanak and 94,034 on the common civil role were also entitled to voted. In the end, a total of 141,099 people cast a vote.

Forty percent of the New Caledonian population are Melanesian Kanaks, 29 percent European, and 9 percent are Polynesians from Wallis and Futuna Islands. The rest are a mixture of Asian and Pacific communities.

Voter restrictions
The referendum voters were restricted under the Noumea accord to those eligible under these criteria:

  • Registered on the special referendum role (or fulfilled its requirements without being registered);
  • Born in New Caledonia and registered on the provincial electoral roles.
  • Lived in New Caledonia for a continuous 20 years;
  • Born before 1 January 1989 and lived in New Caledonia from 1988 to 1998;
  • Born after 1 January 1989 with a parent on the special electoral role; and
  • Born in New Caledonia with three years’ continuous residence (before 31 August 2018).
Pro-independence Radio Djiido’s editor-in-chief Romain Hneum takes the pulse of the voting mood at Noumea’s Hotel de Ville. Image: David Robie/PMC

The encouraging mobilisation of youth voters, a significant change since the 2014 provincial elections, and the emergence of a growing cadre of young multi-ethnic voters who are more open to a shared future than some of their conservative parents augurs well for the indépendantistes.

“This referendum was a victory for the youth. The loyalists’ predictions were thwarted, said FLNKS president Roch Wamytan. “This vote was a big leap forward. We will continue on our pathway, we will prepare the people in New Caledonia for independence.

“The struggle isn’t over until we are decolonised. One winner in the vote was fear. Over the past six months, we have tried to allay fears about retirement provisions, security and education. We clearly didn’t do enough. We will work harder on this for the next ballot.”

FLNKS official Alosio Sako said: “We’re a short step from victory, and there are still two more ballots to come.”

Independence inevitable
Some who voted against independence are resigned to the belief that one day New Caledonia will become independent.

“Silver fern” voters … Spanish-French father and son Arnaud and Manuel Fuentes are opposed to independence but are definitely fans of the All Blacks. Image: David Robie/PMC

Talking to a traveller, Sammy, a Lebanese-born New Caledonian with a French passport, and his Caldoche (settler) wife, who were on my flight back to Auckland and heading to Hanmer Springs for a holiday in “très jolie” New Zealand, gave me some interesting insights.

Ironically, Sammy migrated to New Caledonia after “les évènements” in the 1980s which led to the Matignon Accord in 1988 – to escape the civil war in Lebanon.

“Independence is inevitable,” he says. “I only wish they would get on with it and not have votes, delaying things. Build for the future instead of yet another vote.

“In spite of the vote against independence, it is the way it is going. One day New Caledonia will be independent so it is best to restart our future now. We have a chance to build something really new.”

“The indépendantistes are very determined.”

He seemed to be reflecting the view of Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, who flew to Nouméa from Vietnam for a day to meet political and civic leaders, and was whisked up to the Northern province stronghold “capital”Koné.

Philippe declared that a meeting would be held with the accord “signatories” next month and he hinted at some key policy changes to deal with social conditions and “balancing” the economic cleavage in this nickel rich and tourism booming territory.

Spread in Geo
What made Sammy choose New Caledonia? It was so far away from Lebanon – “it was just like Syria is today” – and he had read an article about New Caledonia in the French magazine Geo.

In fact, Geo has just published a cover story last month about New Caledonia headed “New Caledonia: So near, so far”, a 43-page spread dedicated to the beauty, culture, environment and flora and fauna of this “marvellous” archipelago. It would entice anyone.

The magazine quotes linguist and poet Emmanuel Tjibaou, one of six sons of the Kanak leader Jean-Marie Tjibaou assassinated in 1989 (see Part1), who has been director of the stunning Tjibaou Centre, a cultural memorial to his father, since 2012.

“Being ’Kanak’, or a ‘man’, isn’t a question of skin colour,” he says. “The centre introduces Melanesian culture to Western eyes that are not accustomed to it. Kanak traditions are oral, like elsewhere in Oceania. We live our culture – we discover it through singing, or dancing; we speak, or we weep.”

Independent Caledonia TV … making waves and telling the stories of all ethnicities. Image: Screen shots from NCTV

Another example of emerging “new wave” institutions is a small upstart digital television channel based at Koné. Funded largely by the Kanak-governed Northern province, it is a breath of fresh air compared with the dominant Premiere television (part state-run networks with six channels that look to Paris) and Les Nouvelles Calédoniennes, which has been very hostile to independence in the past, but is more subdued these days.

Caledonia TV making mark
Caledonia TV is already making its mark as an independent channel that is “telling our own stories” about Kanak culture, music and traditions and exploring all ethnicities in New Caledonia.

It played an important role in the referendum by setting up TV studios in the University of New Caledonia and providing balanced coverage and ready access for grassroots people to an engage in a dialogue about their future.

Caledonia TV reporter Duke Menango … telling stories with a difference. Image: David Robie/PMC

I caught up with one of the journalists involved in referendum coverage in the campus studios, Duke Menango, who did some of his early training as a journalist at Aoraki Polytechnic journalism school in Dunedin on a New Zealand aid scholarship.

“Caledonia TV started off as a web-based channel in 2012 and then became a fully fledged TV station the following year,” he said.

“It was important to give people a choice. Previously television was dominated by the state media monopoly with only one direction and one point of view. I don’t think we were being well represented as Kanaks and as Kanak reporters.

“With us, we are going out to the people – the grassroots, and we are giving them a voice. A voice for the different tribes. And it isn’t just the tribes, we are telling the stories of all ethnicities.

“We’re giving everybody a voice.”


Caledonia TV … culture and storytelling from a Pacific perspective. Video: PMC

Stiff challenge
But Caledonia faces a stiff challenge from the “mainstream” media, which is largely not sympathetic to independence.

On the weekend of the referendum, Les Nouvelles Calédoniennes devoted a full page for an editorial denouncing independence.

“France or the unknown?” warned editor-in-chief Olivier Poisson, who derided the FLNKS, claiming that it was presenting an unclear, even “confusing” platform, with contradictory objectives.

“In contrast, it’s a fact that we know New Caledonia is already independent. For sure, it isn’t a question of full sovereignty, but whether the country already decides its economic orientation, imposes its own taxes, leads education, runs health, and is able to enter into international accords and partnerships.”

Finally, his message was: “It’s too risky to take on powers that are too great for so little to gain.”

His message irked many indépendantistes, and drew criticism that the newspaper was illegally breaching the political blackout prior to the referendum

“What kind of bullshit is that again?” asked Magalie Tingal Lémé, a former news editor of the pro-independence Radio Djiido. “The editor-in-chief is not supposed to make any comments since the official campaign is over since last night. Some journalists should start being real journalists in this country.”

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‘Rethink’ say ABC friends condemning Canberra’s Pacific media plan

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Professional broadcasting in the Pacific depends on “two-way respectful communication” that enhances understanding of diverse perspectives in the region, says the ABC Friends group. Image: vizit.com

Pacific Media Watch Newsdesk

A public broadcasting advocacy group has condemned Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s plan to commercialise Pacific broadcasting as not being able to provide quality public interest journalism to the country’s neighbours.

Supporters of Australian Broadcasting in Asia and the Pacific, a group linked to ABC Friends, has asked Morrison to rethink his plans.

“If Mr Morrison wants to restore a fresh initiative like the Australia Network he is dependent on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation which has the experience and professionalism to create strong partnerships with Pacific nations,” the supporters statement said.

READ MORE: Morrison to unveil broad suite of measures to boost Australia’s influence in the Pacific

“The voice of Australia through Radio Australia, and more recently via a wider range of ABC media platforms, has long been valued by people in the Pacific and many ABC broadcasters have become popular in the region.”

Australian foreign policy would not be enhanced by the “commercial news judgements of Fox or Sky News”, which did not provide independent analysis of complex issues.

-Partners-

Professional broadcasting in the Pacific depended on “two-way respectful communication” that enhanced understanding of diverse perspectives in the region, the advocacy group said.

Clear expectations
In recent months Pacific leaders had made clear their expectations of Australian/Pacific public broadcasting:

  • Vanuatu Prime Minister Charlot Salwal has called for rebuilding public interest broadcasting;
  • In a speech to the Lowy Institute, Samoan Prime Minister Tuilaepa Sa’ilele Malielegaoi had called for the Pacific voice to be heard in Australia; and
  • Other Pacific leaders had echoed this call, as well as Secretary-General of the South Pacific Forum.

“Significantly, if Australia were to accept this approach to Pacific broadcasting it would become the only nation to rely on the commercial sector to deliver its ‘soft power’ diplomacy.

“Just imagine Canada or Britain giving such a significant national task to commercial interests!” said the statement.

ABC Friends national president Margaret Reynolds urged Prime Minister Morrison to reconsider this public policy shift and take advice from the Department of Foreign Affairs which was more familiar with the needs of Pacific nations and managing diplomatic relations.

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Fiji gender groups welcome 56 women candidates, slam lack of diversity

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Participants in the Fiji Young Women’s Forum in Labasa, Fiji, earlier this year. Image: FWRM

Pacific Media Centre Newsdesk

A Fiji women’s coalition has praised the confirmation of 56 female candidates for the 2018 Fiji national elections next week, but warned over the lack of diverse young women in national decision making.

Diverse Voices and Action for Equality (DIVA) said in a statement today women were under-represented at all levels of decision making in Fiji, including formal and informal governance processes.

This meant women – including diverse young women – did not have equal influence over policy decisions that affected their lives.

The Fiji Young Women’s Forum (FYWF) congratulated six young women candidates under 30 years of age, saying it looked forward to engaging in their leadership

However, FYWF also noted a lack of representation of diverse young women in decision making at the national level and said this was expected to increase in the future.

“It is critical to recognise that with continuous and effective support, the self-determination of all young women regarding the formation of an accountable and transparent government that will in turn help to advance all diverse young women’s social, economic and political statuses,” said FYWF.

-Partners-

Exercising their rights
The forum also called on young women to realise the significance of active political participation and exercising their rights in community and national levels to enact change.

With awareness through civic education, young women were better informed of their constitutional rights and were able to confidently assert themselves in their communities, said FYWF.

“As diverse young women we face multiple forms of discriminations because of our age, sex gender, and psycho social disability.

“FYWF envisages a future where we have the freedom to express our views, opinions and political beliefs in safety and with dignity with no fear of retribution or violence.”

The Emerging Leaders Forum Alumni (ELFA) said effective, equal and safe political participation of women and young women was vital for a strengthened democracy promoting gender equality and women’s human rights.

FemLINKPACIFIC stressed the community media contribution.

Accessing information
“”We recognise the need for young women to access key information and communication platforms to actively participate in civic dialogue, decision making and lead shifts in public and political opinion,” it said.

femLINKPACIFIC called for continued investment in young women’s empowerment for increased participation.

The Fiji Young Women’s Forum (FYWF) is a space for diverse young women leaders to articulate their needs, rights and perspectives on Fiji’s political transition and strategise for moving Fiji forward.

The past five forums saw young women leaders continuing to make visible their opinions, particularly in the national election process.

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Newsletter: New Zealand Politics Daily – November 8 2018

Newsletter: New Zealand Politics Daily – November 8 2018 Editor’s Note: Here below is a list of the main issues currently under discussion in New Zealand and links to media coverage. [caption id="attachment_297" align="aligncenter" width="640"] The Beehive and Parliament Buildings.[/caption] Drug Foundation report, synthetic drugs NZ Drug Foundation: Drug law reform stacks up in dollar terms – new report Shamubeel Eaqub (Spinoff): The economic boon for New Zealand of drug law reform Jared Nicoll (Stuff): Legalised cannabis market could grow NZ’s coffers by $240m a year in tax Alex Baird (Newshub): Legalising cannabis could be worth $240m to New Zealand – top economist Chris Bramwell (RNZ): Regulating cannabis could generate $240m in tax – report Sam Sachdeva (Newsroom):Strong economic case for drug reform – report Anna Whyte (1News): Drug Foundation calls for decriminalisation of use and possession of all illicit drugs Zahra Shahtahmasebi (VIce): In New Zealand It’s Much Easier to Score Meth than Weed Derek Cheng (Herald): MPs should ‘walk the talk’ and decriminalise drug use, say the Greens Bryan Cadogan (ODT): Underestimate meth at your peril Melissa Nightingale (Herald): Synthetics-contaminated cooking utensil poisoned Porirua children Jami-Lee Ross and NZ First Richard Harman (Politik): Dirty politics, Russell McVeagh and Winston Peters. The bizarre story of two high priced dinners Barry Soper (Newstalk ZB): Winston Peters plays politics like no one else Tracy Watkins (Stuff): Winston Peters’ plan to make National eat humble pie Dan Satherley (Newshub): Jami-Lee Ross should consider resigning – NZ First MP Tracey Martin 1News: NZ First’s Tracey Martin admits it will be odd voting for Opposition as party takes Jami-Lee Ross’ proxy vote RNZ: NZ First to hold Jami-Lee Ross’ proxy vote Laura Walters and Sam Sachdeva (Newsroom): NZ First to cast Jami-Lee Ross’ proxy vote Sophie Bateman (Newshub): New Zealand First accepts Jami-Lee Ross proxy vote for Botany Anna Whyte (1News): NZ First accept Jami-Lee Ross’ proxy vote Herald: NZ First has agreed to accept MP Jami-Lee Ross’ proxy vote in Parliament Tracy Watkins (Stuff):Jami-Lee Ross switches his proxy vote to New Zealand First Unemployment, employment law Liam Dann (Herald): Unemployment fall a win for Government Amy Williams (RNZ): Depth of underemployment problem not reflected in stats – union Jason Walls (Herald): The Government reaches its unemployment target but the PM warns the number will fluctuate BusinessDesk: NZ employment rate hits highest ever level Hamish Rutherford (Stuff): Unemployment drops sharply, hitting lowest level since 2008 Alice Webb-Lidall (Newshub): Unemployment rate the lowest in 10 years 1News: Unemployment rate down to 3.9 per cent, lowest level since 2008 Herald: Unemployment falls to lowest level since the 2008 global financial crisis, Statistics NZ says No Rght Turn: 17,000 employed under Labour Andrew Ashton (Hawkes Bay Today): Hawke’s Bay’s job boom: Number of unemployed drops by half in a year Hamish Rutherford (Stuff): National claims Government has agreed to water down employment law Migrant labour Steve Kilgallon and Dileepa Fonseka (Stuff): The Big Scam: $5000 cash buys you a job RNZ: New Zealand to review impact of RSE on Pacific RNZ: Cleaning company fined $37k for exploiting staff Housing ODT Editorial: Cracks appear in KiwiBuild Jenna Lynch (Newshub): Exclusive: Housing Minister’s backdown on penalties for KiwiBuild property flippers Mike Hosking (Newstalk ZB): Kiwibuild scandal just gets bigger and bigger Martyn Bradbury (Daily Blog): Wait, what? Not only is Kiwibuild for the children of the middle classes – it’s also for property speculators? David Williams (Newsroom): On KiwiBuild’s fringe, the have-nots Chris Harrowell (Stuff): KiwiBuild rebuffs offer to get involved in Buddhists’ Auckland housing development Ben Leahy (Herald): Housing Minister says all major indicators show homelessness was up over the winter Chris Morris (ODT): Dunedin housing plans ‘broken’: developer Karel Sroubek residency decision Peter Dunne: Report will determine not only Sroubek’s fate, but also the Minister’s Jason Walls (Herald): Deputy Prime Minister suggests immigration officials are at fault over the Sroubek saga Stuff: Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern found out about Karel Sroubek decision through the media Derek Cheng (Herald): House burgled days after Karel Sroubek lodged a claim on it, the National Party says Matthew Rosenberg and Anna Loren (Stuff): House tied to drug smuggler Karel Sroubek withdrawn from sale after alleged burglary Edward Gay (Stuff): Drug smuggler Karel Sroubek deportation order is still ‘pending’ Government, Labour Party conference Pattrick Smellie (Stuff): Our interventionist government still contains traces of Roger Douglas Peter Dunne (Newsroom): Beware the politics of the warm glow Bryan Gould: Good – but could be better Rino Tirikatene (Stuff): The rockstar prime minister Banking sector Shamubeel Eaqub (Stuff): It’s time to address New Zealand banks’ big four problems John Anthony (Stuff): Kiwibank’s ‘readiness’ to become Government’s bank investigated Gareth Vaughan (Interest): Govt mulling ‘fundamental change’ to the bank-customer relationship Point of Order: Wake-up call in banking should be heeded by the regulatory agencies, too Chris Hutching (Stuff): Main Kiwi banks refuse to support bitcoin trading businesses Duncan Bridgeman (Herald): Who wants to be a banker now? Mike Hosking (Newstalk ZB): It’s cool to hate banks and oil companies but they’re not crooked Health Katie Fitzgerald (Newshub): Government looking into banning smoking in cars with kids – Jenny Salesa Cate Broughton (Stuff): Group to ‘un-mesmerise’ communities on harmful foods Sarah Robson (RNZ): No improvement in childhood tooth decay rates Nicholas Jones (Herald): Can’t walk or talk – but dementia sufferer faces eviction from rest home Hannah Martin (Stuff): Auckland DHB temporarily closes a maternity ward due to staffing pressures RNZ: Midwives say rejected offer doesn’t acknowledge big responsibility Oliver Lewis (Stuff): Canterbury DHB and Health Ministry dispute admissions to secure unit Jason Walls (Herald): The Government will spend close to $46 million on a new children’s hospital in Wellington Felix Desmarais (Stuff): Wellington children’s hospital gets $45 million funding boost from Government 1News: Wellington children’s hospital closer to reality with $45.6m Govt funding boost Emma Hatton (RNZ): Govt to contribute $45.6m to children’s hospital Danielle Clent (Stuff):30 surgeries affected in 48-hour strike by Northland anaesthetic technicians Annna Whyte (1News): Students urge Government for abortion no-protest buffer zone around hospital Mandy Te and Hannah Martin (Stuff): ‘Not appropriate to alarm’ public about W meningococcal strain in May, Northland DHB says Herald: Northland District Health Board defends timing of alert on new meningococcal strain Tom Hunt (Stuff): Infants to finally be offered meningicoccal B vaccine Herald: New vaccine launched to combat killer meningococcal B disease Lucy Warhurst (Newshub): ‘Scariest time of my life’: Mum urges Kiwis to get meningococcal B vaccination Dan Satherley (Newshub): Junior doctors still working epic shifts Michael Hall (RNZ): Call for probe into pesticide banned by France after illnesses Catherine Harris (Stuff): Plumbers call on Govt to stop tapware with unsafe levels of lead Phil Pennington (RNZ): Experts warn over taps leaching lead into water Herald: Australia’s ‘lead crisis’ makes it way to New Zealand: Unsafe levels of lead found in tapware Katie Scotcher (RNZ): Film labelling body pushes for law change after Hollywood film sparks distress Eric Crampton: Have you considered using prices? 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Blasts from the past: how massive solar eruptions ‘probably’ detonated dozens of US sea mines

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brett Carter, Senior lecturer, RMIT University

An extraordinary account of the impact space weather had on military operations in Vietnam in 1972 was found buried in the US Navy archives, according to a newly published article in Space Weather.

On August 4, 1972, the crew of a US Task Force 77 aircraft flying near a naval minefield in the waters off Hon La observed 20 to 25 explosions over about 30 seconds. They also witnessed an additional 25 to 30 mud spots in the waters nearby.


Read more: It’s never been more important to keep an eye on space weather


Destructor sea mines had been deployed here during Operation Pocket Money, a mining campaign launched in 1972 against principal North Vietnamese ports.

There was no obvious reason why the mines should have detonated. But it has now emerged the US Navy soon turned its attention to extreme solar activity at the time as a probable cause.

The more we can understand the impact of such space weather on technology then the better we can be prepared for any future extreme solar activity.

A solar theory

As detailed in a now declassified US Navy report, the event sparked an immediate investigation about the potential cause(s) of the random detonations of so many sea mines.

The sea mines deployed had a self-destruct feature. But the minimum self-destruct time on these mines was not for another 30 days, so something else was to blame.

On August 15, 1972, the Commander in Chief of the US Pacific Fleet, Admiral Bernard Clarey, asked about a hypothesis that solar activity could have caused the mine detonations.

Many of the mines deployed were magnetic influence sea mines that were designed to detonate when they detected changes in the magnetic field.

Solar activity was then well known to cause magnetic field changes, but it wasn’t clear whether or not the Sun could cause these unintentional detonations.

Solar flares

Early August in 1972 saw some of the most intense solar activity ever recorded.

A sunspot region, denoted MR 11976, set off a series of intense solar flares (energetic explosions of electromagnetic radiation), coronal mass ejections (eruptions of solar plasma material that typically accompany flares) and clouds of charged particles travelling close to the speed of light.

Those conducting the investigation into the mine incident visited the Space Environment Laboratory at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) near Boulder, Colorado, to speak to space scientists.

One of the scientists at NOAA at the time was the now Emeritus Professor Brian Fraser, from Australia’s Newcastle University, and it’s an event he told me he remembers well:

I was on my first sabbatical leave at NOAA working with Wallace (Wally) Campbell’s group, and one day in Wally’s office I noticed a group of US Navy brass hat gentlemen and a couple of dark suits.

Brian said he had later quizzed Wally on what was going on, and Wally explained they were concerned about geomagnetic field changes triggering sea mines laid in Hai Phong, North Vietnam.

There was no mention whether or not they had exploded but maybe Wally was being coy. And of course it was all probably top secret then.

The outcome of this investigation, as stated in the declassified US Navy report, detailed “a high degree of probability” that the Destructor mines had been detonated by the August solar storm activity.

Declassified: excerpt from U.S. Navy Report, Mine Warfare Project Office – The Mining of North Vietnam, 8 May 1972 to 14 January 1973. 1070416001, Glenn Helm Collection, The Vietnam Center and Archive, Texas Tech University

Solar interference

Solar storms cause strong magnetic field fluctuations, which impact large power grid infrastructure, particularly in the high-latitude regions beneath the northern and southern auroras.

Solar flares captured by NASA and ESA.

The storms of early August 1972 were no different. There were numerous reports across North America of power disruptions and telegraph line outages. Now that light has been shone on the impact of these events on sea mine operations in 1972, the scientific community has another clear example of space weather impacts on technologies.

The intensity of the early August activity peaked when an X-class solar flare at 0621 UT August 4, 1972, launched an ultra-fast coronal mass ejection that reached Earth in the record time of 14.6 hours. The solar wind normally takes two to three days to reach Earth.

Scientists think that the previous slower ejections from earlier flares had cleared the path for this fast disturbance, similar to what was observed by the STEREO spacecraft in July 2012.

It’s the impact of this fast disturbance in the solar wind on the Earth’s magnetosphere that probably caused the detonation of the Destructor mines.

Using the past to predict the future

The Dst index, measured in nano-Tesla (nT), is a typical measure of the disturbance level in the Earth’s magnetic field – the more negative, the more intense the storm.

Some recent extreme solar storms, according to this scale, include the 2015 St Patrick’s Day storm (-222 nT) and the 2003 Halloween storm (-383 nT).


Read more: What the ‘weather’ is like on a star can help in the search for life


Interestingly, the extreme activity in August 1972 was far less intense on this scale, only weighing in at -125 nT.

Exactly why this storm reached extreme level on some measures, such as its high speed from the Sun, but not on the typical Dst scale is a topic of significant discussion within the scientific literature.

Given the complexities of this event, this new paper lays out a grand challenge to the space weather community to use our modern modelling techniques to reexamine this solar event. Hopefully, understanding these strange events will better prepare us for future solar eruptions.

ref. Blasts from the past: how massive solar eruptions ‘probably’ detonated dozens of US sea mines – http://theconversation.com/blasts-from-the-past-how-massive-solar-eruptions-probably-detonated-dozens-of-us-sea-mines-105983]]>

How to keep slave-caught seafood off your plate

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jessica Meeuwig, Professor & Director, Marine Futures Lab, University of Western Australia

How would you feel if you knew that slavery had helped provide the fish on your plate? Our new research reveals that imported seafood raises the risk of Australians consuming fish caught or processed by workers under slave labour conditions by more than eight times, and identifies some of the warning signs to look out for on a global basis.

Our results are consistent with increasingly widespread reports of modern slavery in the oceans, as highlighted by the recent Global Slavery Index.

Recent cases record the abuse of Indonesian, Cambodian, and Myanmar nationals subjected to forced labour on vessels from countries including South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand, in waters as far afield as New Zealand, Western Africa, Hawaii and the UK.


Read more: How to reduce slavery in seafood supply chains


Forced labour in fisheries is tied to the ongoing depletion of our oceans. Fish catches peaked in 1996 and have since declined. Compared with 1950, fishing fleets now travel twice the distance to catch a third of the fish. As remaining fish are harder and more expensive to catch, and with rising fuel costs, unscrupulous operators reduce costs by exploiting labour.

The use of refrigerated motherships (“reefers”) allows distant-water vessels to refuel and tranship catch at sea. Enslaved fishers thus might not see land for years, with the inability to oversee labour practices in offshore conditions providing fertile ground for labour abuses.

A globalised seafood industry with opaque supply chains makes it hard for consumers to avoid slave-caught seafood. The lack of “net-to-table” traceability compounds the challenge of assessing how prevalent slave-caught seafood might be in our grocery stores and restaurants.

Steps in the seafood supply chain.

Our study, published in Nature Communications, used data on prevalence of modern slavery from the Global Slavery Index alongside fisheries catch data from the Sea Around Us to determine a set of risk factors that are associated with modern slavery in fisheries. We thus move from anecdotal reports to a global risk assessment.

We found that major fish producing countries with evidence of modern slavery share these characteristics:

  • high levels of vessel and fuel subsidies provided by national governments, indicating overcapacity and poor profitability

  • poor catch reporting, indicating lack of governance

  • dependence on fishing far from home ports and in other countries’ waters, beyond the reach of domestic enforcement

  • low catch value, which puts pressure on labour costs.

Slave-caught seafood affects us all

Seafood is the world’s most highly traded food commodity. To estimate how seafood involving forced labour might reach consumers in ostensibly slavery-free countries, we looked at trade flows of seafood between countries.

We found that imported seafood in US, European and Australian markets raised the risk of consuming slave-caught or processed seafood more than eight times. Increased vigilance over the provenance of seafood entering these markets is thus urgently required.

Prevalence of slave-caught seafood based on domestic fisheries (left) vs combined domestic-caught and imported seafood (right).

Some people would argue that we can avoid forced labour in overseas fisheries by increasing fishing in Australia, but this logic is flawed.

Australia has already lost 30% of its large fish in the past decade. The annual assessment of 95 Commonwealth-managed stocks finds that roughly 20% are of concern because they are overfished or have uncertain status.

Expanding Australian fisheries is unlikely to reduce our reliance on imported seafood, given that higher overseas prices encourage Australian fishers to export their product rather than sell it into the domestic market, as is the case with rock lobster and tuna.

Most importantly, modern slavery in the fishing sector is a global scourge that will not be resolved by simply reducing foreign seafood imports. It needs Australian leadership in diplomatic and trading relationships.

Eliminating slavery from your plate

We suggest the following ways in which Australia can contribute to eliminating modern slavery from fisheries:

  • Support the federal government’s Modern Slavery Act, including the appointment of an independent commissioner to advise seafood companies on minimising risk of forced labour in their products. Australia’s regional leadership will help other countries shape their own slavery legislation.

  • Help seafood importers, processors and retailers target forced labour through initiatives such as the Seafood Business for Ocean Stewardship, which help and incentivise businesses to improve their supply chains and to evaluate risk.

  • Ensure our trading partners have fair labour laws that regulate hiring, payment and treatment of fishing crews. Thailand in particular has responded strongly to labour issues in its fisheries after being sanctioned by the European Union.

  • Support international efforts to eliminate harmful subsidies and reallocate these resources to rebuilding fisheries through well-enforced management, including fishing-free zones such as marine parks.

  • Choose carefully using consumer seafood guides that report on social justice along with environmental sustainability.

Very few people would intentionally buy seafood caught by slaves. But the lack of monitoring, transparency and sustainability in fisheries management keeps consumers in the dark and fishing crews vulnerable.

Overfishing damages our environment. Slavery causes immeasurable suffering. We can’t tolerate encouraging that by what we put on our plate. Ask your local seafood supplier: “where did this fish come from?” Ask your representative politicians too.

ref. How to keep slave-caught seafood off your plate – http://theconversation.com/how-to-keep-slave-caught-seafood-off-your-plate-105861]]>

Dark tourism: why atrocity tourism is neither new nor weird

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Caroline Bennett, Lecturer in Cultural Anthropology, Victoria University of Wellington

Recently a new show appeared on my Netflix recommendations and drew my attention. Dark Tourist sells itself as a provocative and quirky documentary series, in which New Zealand journalist David Farrier visits sites associated with death, disaster and atrocity. He seeks the “mad, the macabre, the morbid”.

From meeting one of Pablo Escobar’s henchmen in Colombia to participating in funeral rituals in Indonesia, each episode spends a few minutes at a site, before swiftly moving to the next. Its jaunty theme tune and Itchy and Scratchy style title credits set the tone.

Based on my research in Cambodia, I argue that Dark Tourist pursues a reality TV aesthetic for entertainment but achieves little to further understanding of past and present atrocities, or why people visit such sites.

Strange people, strange places

Focusing on extreme tourist destinations in places determined to be off the beaten track, the series is riddled with words like bizarre, wacky, bloody and macabre. In an interview about the series, Farrier sells the show as being about “all these strange people in all these strange places doing strange things”.


Read more: From trauma to tourism and back again: Port Arthur’s history of ‘dark tourism’


By situating it as such, the destinations are presented as peculiar places, the people who run them somewhat abnormal and those who visit as slightly deranged. Glorifying the danger of the locales, and highlighting the “bizarre” nature of the encounters, Farrier is portrayed as some kind of rational, moral explorer hero visiting little known people and places and exposing the realities of each site.

By centring the series on the idea of abnormality, the show fails to try to understand the wider socio-cultural and historical context of why people do these things, or visit these places. This is a new version of the freak shows of earlier years, but here the freaks are those who see economic potential in commodifying sites of violence or death and those who want to visit them. The trend is posited as particular to our age – a morbid aspect of 21st-century global tourism.

Historical dark tourism

Dark tourism is not a new phenomenon, nor is the use of artefacts of violence in pursuit of economic or political capital. People have always been fascinated with sites of death and disaster, and others have always exploited that.

In the Middle Ages the Catholic Church encouraged contemplation of death and dying through viewing momento mori – often displays of skeletal remains. During the Napoleonic wars, British tourists visited the battlefields to watch the fighting. Teeth, bullets and other material artefacts were collected and sold afterwards.

The Egyptian pyramids (most of which are tombs) have been a tourist destination for decades, and mummies have been displayed in museums around the world for more than two centuries. Some 20,000 people reportedly watched the last public hanging in the US.

Contemporary dark tourism

As part of my research in Cambodia, I consider dark tourism, particularly in relation to Khmer Rouge sites, but also in the wider tourist circuit of Cambodia. Part of this research examines why people participate in the commodification of their own, often harrowing, histories. I also explore the attraction to tourists of such sites.

Dark Tourist does little to examine the motivations behind such commodification. Instead, the show positions it as either cynically economic, political, or just plain absurd.

There is truth in the idea that in order to attract visitors, sites have to conform to an international tourist aesthetic. They also have to present a particularly salient political narrative, which obscures alternative understandings, and may bear little resonance with local ways of dealing with violent histories. However, as my research shows, this is in no way weird or unreasonable.

Many of my research participants saw tourism as a means of connecting Cambodia to the wider global community, and so ensuring its position in networks of support for the future. Others considered it an important means of education, both for the tourists and for their own communities. All were aware of the political motivations for certain commodifications and the simplification of stories presented by others. But they considered this less important than the imagined positive results of tourism, directed towards a more stable future.


Read more: Dark tourism, Aboriginal imprisonment and the ‘prison tree’ that wasn’t


Tourist motivations

Tourists also came with a plethora of motivations. While this series suggests voyeurism or thrill-seeking is the norm, this is actually the minority. The main attraction of dark tourism sites is their material and emotive connection to particular histories or violent events, particularly where they are within living memory and have impacted globally and locally.

My research shows, for example, how the display of human remains and exposed grave pits at Choeung Ek Genocidal Center, colloquially known as the Killing Fields, offers an affective connection to the Khmer Rouge. It collapses time by re-imagining the horrors in the present through the tourist encounter. For those visiting funeral rituals or other contemporary treatments related to the dead, it is about experiencing alternative understandings in the present.

The increase in dark tourism does not, I think, reflect a growing morbidity or fetishism of death and atrocity. What it does reflect is a liberalising, globalised economic system where tourism is increasingly a major economic sector for many countries.

It is also, I believe, a reaction to the increasingly precarious and seemingly insecure world we live in. Of course some people visit such sites as ways of increasing their social capital: providing a means of presenting themselves as adventurous and brave. Hence an increasing number of sites appeal to extreme pursuits, such as the shooting range the series visits in Cambodia.

But for many, visiting sites of atrocity or disaster provides a connection to events they have learned about but not experienced.

Ethics of reality TV

The sensationalisation of Dark Tourist conforms to a reality TV aesthetic where ever more extreme experiences are pursued in the name of entertainment (think Survivor). This positioning does nothing for helping understand the context and impact of these tourist sites, nor the people who live and work in these realities.

While Farrier is stepping out into the no-go area of Fukushima (and putting his tour guide’s job in jeopardy), or investigating the “lawlessness” of Alexandra, South Africa, in the name of impactful television, there are people for who this is their everyday life.

Although Farrier is worried about his few minutes of exposure to radiation, his tour guide Yo and a guard about whom he remarks “if job satisfaction comes from getting rid of people like us, he should be a happy man”, are exposed to this everyday. The people of Alexandra are living with the ongoing legacy of apartheid and ongoing tensions in South Africa.

Reclaiming their future through participating in the commodification of dark tourist sites is a means to make a living, and perhaps reassert some control. It is neither weird, nor extreme, to attempt to understand a violent past better through material connection.

ref. Dark tourism: why atrocity tourism is neither new nor weird – http://theconversation.com/dark-tourism-why-atrocity-tourism-is-neither-new-nor-weird-106229]]>

What it means when scientists say their results are ‘significant’

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yazad Irani, Post-Doctoral Researcher, South Australian Health & Medical Research Institute

This article is part of the series This is research, where we ask academics to share and discuss open access articles that reveal important aspects of science. Today’s piece looks at statistics, and how to interpret them for meaning in the real world.


Let’s face it, scientific papers aren’t exactly page turners. They are written by scientists, for scientists, and often in a language that seems to only vaguely resemble English.

And perhaps one of the most daunting aspects of a scientific paper is the statistics (“stats”) section.

But what do stats really mean in the real world? Here’s an example from leukaemia research to help you break it down.


Read more: Our survey found ‘questionable research practices’ by ecologists and biologists – here’s what that means


Strength of results

Stats are key to good research – they help researchers determine whether the results observed are strong enough to be due to an important scientific phenomenon.

As a research student I would always look for the magic number which indicates statistically significant differences in my experiments: most people agree this number to be 0.05 (you may see this in a paper written as p < 0.05).

When comparing two outcomes or groups in a scientific study, achieving a statistical significance value of less than 0.05 means there’s less than 5% chance the results are due to chance alone. Or, put another way, if you repeated that same experiment 20 times under the same conditions, you’d get the same result at least 19 times.

But the focus on looking for statistically significant differences can blind us to the bigger picture. As I advanced through my scientific training I learnt to look for biologically significant differences.


Read more: The curious case of the missing workplace teaspoons


Biological significance

Biological significance addresses the question of whether the statistical difference actually means anything in terms of a real outcome, like a disease. Can the result explain how the disease is caused? Does it provide a new avenue to treat the disease? Basically, is it relevant?

A recent paper published in the journal Leukaemia will help explain my point. The paper looked at why some people are able to stop their treatment for chronic myeloid leukaemia without the cancer coming back, while in others the cancer relapsed.

The key finding of this study was that patients who did not relapse had a higher proportion of natural killer cells compared to patients that did relapse.



Natural killer cells are a type of immune cell that controls viral infections and tumours. So, the more cells there are to kill the cancer, the less likely the cancer was to relapse – makes sense!

This finding has the potential to guide doctors in seeing which patients are likely to remain cancer-free after stopping treatment. This is definitely biologically significant.


Read more: My cancer is in remission – does this mean I’m cured?


Not so relevant

Another result from the same paper (Figure 3a if you want to click through to the data) shows a statistically significant difference in a sub-type of natural killer cells (called adaptive natural killer cells). But is this difference biologically relevant?

At this stage there is little evidence of a role for adaptive natural killer cells in the context of leukaemia. Also, the difference between the groups is relatively small, with a large variation within the groups (there are large error bars on the graph).

These factors make it more likely that the differences may be due to the mathematics involved in the statistical test rather than a biological effect. As with any new finding, time and further studies will be vital in working out whether this result actually means anything.

Act like an expert

So how do you pick if the statistical differences have biological value? Being a highly trained expert in the field certainly helps.

Another way to determine if the findings in a paper have biological relevance is to look for other papers that show similar results. If a result is “real” it should be found by other scientists who will build on it and publish more papers.

This means there will be lots of papers for you to read and apply your new-found passion for statistics.


The open access research paper for this analysis is Increased proportion of mature NK cells is associated with successful imatinib discontinuation in chronic myeloid leukemia.

ref. What it means when scientists say their results are ‘significant’ – http://theconversation.com/what-it-means-when-scientists-say-their-results-are-significant-103329]]>

Borneo cave discovery: is the world’s oldest rock art in Southeast Asia?

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adam Brumm, ARC Future Fellow, Griffith University

Cave paintings in remote mountains in Borneo have been dated to at least 40,000 years ago – much earlier than first thought – according to a study published today in Nature.

These artworks include a painting of what seems to be a local species of wild cattle, which makes it the world’s oldest example of figurative art – that is, an image that looks like the thing it is intended to represent.


Read more: Ancient stone tools found on Sulawesi, but who made them remains a mystery


This discovery adds to the mounting view that the first cave art traditions did not arise in Europe, as long believed.

Remote rock art

In the 1990s, Indonesian and French archaeologists trekked into the remote interior mountains of East Kalimantan, an Indonesian province of Borneo.

Limestone mountains in East Kalimantan, Borneo. Pindi Setiawan, Author provided

In limestone caves perched atop forbidding, densely forested peaks, the team discovered a vast trove of prehistoric artworks, including thousands of hand stencils (negative outlines of human hands) and rarer paintings of animals.

Strikingly, apart from the paintings themselves, the team found little other evidence for human occupation in the caves. It seemed as though people had made long and dangerous climbs to these clifftop caves mostly to create art.

Liang Banteng, a cave art site in East Kalimantan. Pindi Setiawan, Author provided

The team proposed that the prehistoric artworks can be divided into at least two chronologically distinct phases of art production.

The first phase is characterised by hand stencils and large figurative paintings of animals that are reddish-orange in colour.

A rock painting of a banteng, a type of wild cattle from Borneo. Pindi Setiawan, Author provided

Hand stencils also characterise the later phase, but these stencils (and associated images) tend to be dark purple (“mulberry”) in colour. During this phase the artists also painted tattoo-like designs on the wrists, palms, and fingers of some stencils – in some instances, hand stencils were interlinked by motifs resembling tree branches or vines.

Mulberry-coloured hand stencils at Liang Téwét in East Kalimantan. Some hand stencils have internal decorations and are interlinked by tree-like motifs. Pindi Setiawan, Author provided

Finally, the artists began to portray human figures in their art (see top image).

This amazing discovery raised a host of questions. How old was the cave art? Who created it and why?

In the early 2000s the French-Indonesian team dated part of a cave drapery formation that had grown over the top of a hand stencil.

The quality of the sample they dated was not ideal, but their results implied an age of at least 10,000 years for the underlying artwork.

New dates for old art

We now believe the Borneo artworks are far older than previously thought, according to research we conducted with colleagues from the National Research Center for Archaeology (ARKENAS) in Jakarta and other Indonesian scientists.

In our paper, we report uranium-series dates obtained from calcium carbonate samples collected in association with cave art from six East Kalimantan sites. This provides the first reliable estimates for the approximate time of rock art production.

(a, top): Location of Borneo. The dated rock art is in the Sangkulirang-Mangkalihat Peninsula (SMP). (b, bottom): Rock art sites with dated cave art. Map source: Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) 1 Arc-Second Global by NASA/NGS/USGS; GEBCO_2014 Grid, version 20150318, (gebco.net). Base maps generated using ArcGIS by M. Kottermair and A. Jalandoni. Figure design and formatting: Adam Brumm, Author provided

The oldest cave art image is a large reddish-orange painting of an animal, similar to the wild banteng still found in the jungles of Borneo. This has a minimum age of 40,000 years.

As far as we can ascertain it is the earliest dated figurative artwork on Earth.

Dated rock art from Lubang Jeriji Saléh. Two samples collected from atop a figurative animal painting yielded minimum uranium-series ages of 40,000 and 39,400 years ago. The dated artwork is deteriorated, but we interpret it as a figurative representation of a Bornean banteng. Pindi Setiawan, Author provided

The reddish-orange hand stencil art was shown to be similar in age, suggesting that the first rock art style appeared between about 52,000 and 40,000 years ago.

The oldest mulberry paintings, including decorated hand stencils, date to about 21,000-20,000 years ago. A mulberry human figure was created at least 13,600 years ago.

Our dating implies that a major change took place about 20,000 years ago within Borneo’s rock art culture. This was during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a time when the ice sheets were at their greatest extent and the global ice age climate was at its most extreme.

Perhaps life in this harsh world stimulated new forms of cultural innovation.

Or perhaps the East Kalimantan mountains became a refuge for people fleeing environmental changes wrought by the LGM, boosting population sizes and instigating social pressures that sparked new forms of intergroup communication, including art.

In 2014 we revealed that similar rock art appeared in the Maros caves of Sulawesi around 40,000 years ago.

Sulawesi is adjacent to Borneo and has never been connected to the nearby Eurasian continent. This large island is a vital stepping-stone between Asia and Australia.

Our latest discovery suggests that rock art spread from Borneo into Sulawesi and other new worlds beyond Eurasia, perhaps arriving with the first people to colonise Australia.

Two areas of Palaeolithic cave art innovation

The ice age region of France and Spain has long been seen as the global centre of cave art development owing to the stunning animal paintings known from this area.


Read more: Ice age art and ‘jewellery’ found in an Indonesian cave reveal an ancient symbolic culture


But while Borneo is the planet’s third-largest island, for most of the ice age it was connected by lower sea levels to the vast continental region of Eurasia – Borneo and Europe were opposite extremities of this landmass.

So it now seems that two early cave art provinces existed at a similar time in remote corners of Palaeolithic Eurasia: one in Indonesia, and one in Europe.

A recent study suggests Neanderthals were making rock art in Spain 65,000 years ago, but there is good reason to question this claim.

It is of course possible that the first modern human rock art arose in Africa and was introduced to Eurasia by later migrations of our species.

Alternatively, Indonesia and Europe may have been separate areas of innovation where ice age rock art emerged independently – if so, it is possible the very earliest cave paintings may one day be found in Southeast Asia rather than Europe.


Adhi Agus Oktaviana, a researcher in archaeology and rock art from ARKENAS, contributed to this article.

ref. Borneo cave discovery: is the world’s oldest rock art in Southeast Asia? – http://theconversation.com/borneo-cave-discovery-is-the-worlds-oldest-rock-art-in-southeast-asia-106252]]>

Pain isn’t just physical: why many are using painkillers for emotional relief

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kev Dertadian, Lecturer in Criminology, Western Sydney University

Australians are increasingly using prescription or over-the-counter painkillers to ease emotional, rather than physical, pain. Our cultural understanding of pain is changing, and as a result it’s becoming more difficult to distinguish intoxication from relief.

In my recently published book A Fine Line: Painkillers and Pleasure in the Age of Anxiety, interviewees who used painkillers non-medically said they did so mainly to ease forms of suffering they acknowledge may not be medically defined as pain. Yet they experienced them as “painful”.

The US is currently going through what many term an “opioid epidemic”, while more than 1,000 Australians died of an opioid overdose in 2016, with 76% of these deaths related to prescription opioids. Recently, the ABC reported that the high-dose opioid patch fentanyl has fuelled an opioid dependence crisis in regional Australia.


Read more: How we can reduce dependency on opioid painkillers in rural and regional Australia


These statistics paint a troubling picture of an emerging public health crisis. But what is often missing from reports about overdose and addiction is an explanation of why people are using these medications more often. Perhaps the answer can be found by exploring the evolving definition of pain in an age of growing anxiety.

Pain and suffering

The medical profession has spent the best part of a century trying to find a way to objectively measure physical pain. Despite developing verbal, visual and numerical rating scales, it’s been difficult to find consensus on a form of measurement that can be considered objective. A national pain summit held in Australia in 2010 concluded:

all pain is an individual human experience that is entirely subjective and that can only be truly appreciated by the individual experiencing the pain.

Of course physical pain isn’t the only type of human suffering medicine has tried to address. The expansion of psychiatry and psychology in the 1950s and ‘60s has resulted in a range of everyday emotions being given medical labels with pharmaceutical solutions.

Pain is an entirely subjective experience. Francisco Moreno/Unsplash

During the 1950s, tranquilisers were an early example of the medical profession’s attempt to intervene into anxiety, panic and social phobia. Colloquially referred to as “happiness pills” and “emotional aspirin”, these medications have contributed to a growing cultural promise that medicine can control the body’s emotional responses to stressful circumstances.

The 1980s saw a new wave of “mood medicine” with the introduction of antidepressants. American society’s eager embrace of Prozac (or Lovan in Australia) was a cultural phenomena that sparked debate about the role of medicine in not just alleviating depression, but providing a form of self-enhancement according to social norms.


Read more: Explainer: what is pain and what is happening when we feel it?


Redefining pain

One of the participants in my research, Jessica, is 41-year-old mother of twin boys who works a demanding administrative job. She uses painkillers to manage intense periods of stress at work and with her children. She recalled one time where she took Mersyndol Forte (a strong painkiller which consists of paracetamol and codeine) in anticipation of getting a headache:

I was feeling really really tense and was almost expecting a migraine to come. I was almost anticipating it and medicating before-hand.

Another interviewee, Sean, is a quick-witted 26-year-old who lives in an inner-city Sydney suburb. He said he uses painkillers to relieve emotional discomfort. He compared the emotional loss experienced after a break-up with physical pain:

There’s definitely a physical component. Because you feel like you’re carrying a heavy necklace inside or something, and it’s weighing you down.


Read more: Is depression a mental or physical illness? Unravelling the inflammation hypothesis


More people are using painkillers in an attempt to numb their emotional pain. from shutterstock.com

Jake is a laid back 29-year-old who grew up in south-western Sydney. He started using oxycontin (a strong opiate) at the recommendation of a friend who said it would help him sleep after his partner was murdered. Jake explained that:

it was a mental pain because of what had happened to my girlfriend and I wanted to block that out.

The line between pleasure and pain

Even when using painkillers for physical pain, people may still take pleasure in the feeling it produces. Eastern suburbs resident Jane said she enjoyed the “zoned out” feeling that accompanied pain relief.

Felix is a former injecting drug user who used painkillers for a range of reasons, including to stop withdrawal, relieve anxiety and for the pleasure of intoxication. He said:

The line between just use and dependency is really hard to work out. You don’t know where the line is until you’ve crossed it.

People who use painkillers for non-medical reasons redefine pain according to colloquial uses of the word. They often justify their use as being a form of self-medication for legitimate conditions such as depression, anxiety and stress.


Read more: How different cultures experience and talk about pain


This expansion of pain to include social and emotional suffering seems to be confirmed by the science. A growing body of research has found the neurological pathways associated with physical pain also “light up” when exposed to social and emotional forms of suffering.

Taking painkillers outside of medical direction certainly involves health risks, including overdose and drug dependence. This research does not condone or decry such use, but had set out to explore the underlying reasons why people may be using such medications.

Because the definition of pain now includes social and emotional discomfort, intoxication is difficult to separate from relief – the pleasurable effects of a painkiller are thus seen by many as an unconventional but effective form of pain relief.

ref. Pain isn’t just physical: why many are using painkillers for emotional relief – http://theconversation.com/pain-isnt-just-physical-why-many-are-using-painkillers-for-emotional-relief-106235]]>

Learning music early can make your child a better reader

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anita Collins, Adjunct assistant professor, University of Canberra

Neuroscience has found a clear relationship between music and language acquisition. Put simply, learning music in the early years of schooling can help children learn to read.

Music, language and the brain

Music processing and language development share an overlapping network in the brain. From an evolutionary perspective, the human brain developed music processing well before language and then used that processing to create and learn language.

At birth, babies understand language as if it was music. They respond to the rhythm and melody of language before they understand what the words mean.

Babies and young children mimic the language they hear using those elements of rhythm and melody, and this is the sing-song style of speech we know and love in toddlers.

Musically trained children are better readers

The foundation of reading is speech and to learn how to speak, children must first be able to distinguish speech from all other sounds. Music helps them do this.

Reading is ultimately about making meaning from the words on the page. A number of skills combine to help us make those meanings, including the ability to distinguish between the sounds in words, and fluency of reading.


Read more: How do we learn to read?


Fluency includes the ability to adjust the the patterns of stress and intonation of a phrase, such as from angry to happy and the ability the choose the correct inflection, such as a question or an exclamation. These highly developed auditory processing skills are enhanced by musical training.

Musically trained children also have better reading comprehension skills.

Music can also give us clues about a child’s struggles with reading.
Research has found three- and four-year-old children who could keep a steady musical beat were more reading-ready at the age of five, than those who couldn’t keep a beat.

Children should be taught to read music as well, which reinforces the symbol to sound connection crucial for learning to read. from www.shutterstock.com

What parents and teachers can do

Language learning starts from day one of life with parents talking and singing to their babies. Babies bond with their parents and community primarily through their voice, so singing to your baby both forms a bond with them and engages their auditory processing network.

Taking toddlers to a well-structured, high quality music class each week will build the musical skills that have been found to be so effective in learning to read. It is vital to look for classes that include movement activities, singing, and responding to both sound and silence. They should use good quality music-making toys and instruments.

As they head into preschool, a crucial time for language development, look for the same well-structured music learning programs delivered daily by qualified educators. The songs, rhymes and rhythm activities our children do in preschool and daycare are actually preparing them for reading.


Read more: Does your child struggle with spelling? This might help


Music programs should build skills sequentially. They should encourage children to work to sing in tune, use instruments and move in improvised and structured ways to music.

Children should also be taught to read musical notation and symbols when learning music. This reinforces the symbol to sound connection which is also crucial in reading words.

Importantly, active music learning is the key. Having loud music on in the background does little for their language development and could actually impede their ability to distinguish speech from all the other noise.

Parents should look for good quality music programs for their toddlers. from www.shutterstock.com

This isn’t to say children need silence to learn. In fact, the opposite is true. They need a variety of sound environments and the ability to choose what their brains need in terms of auditory stimulation. Some students need noise to focus, some students need silence and each preference is affected by the type of learning they are being challenged to do.

Sound environments are more than just how loud the class is getting. It’s about the quality of the sounds. Squeaky brakes every three minutes, loud air-conditioning, background music that works for some and not others and irregular bangs and crashes all impact on a child’s ability to learn.

Teachers can allow students to get excited in their lessons and make noise appropriately, but keep some muffled headphones in your classroom for when students want to screen out sound.

Music for all

Our auditory processing network is the first and largest information gathering system in our brains. Music can enhance the biological building blocks for language. Music both prepares children for learning to read, and supports them as they continue their reading journey.

Unfortunately, it’s disadvantaged students who are least likely to have music learning in their schools. Yet research shows they could benefit the most from music learning.

As we look to ways to improve the reading outcomes of our young children, more music education in our preschools and primary schools may be one way clear way forward.

ref. Learning music early can make your child a better reader – http://theconversation.com/learning-music-early-can-make-your-child-a-better-reader-106066]]>

Who wins and who loses when platforms like Airbnb disrupt housing? And how do you regulate it?

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Crommelin, Research Lecturer, City Futures Research Centre, UNSW

Short-term letting platforms like Airbnb are changing property owners’ and investors’ views and behaviour in the Sydney and Melbourne rental markets. These changes are directly affecting housing availability in localised areas, especially the inner city.

Our research for AHURI is the first major study to combine analyses of the geography of Airbnb in Australia’s two largest cities. This included detailed empirical research into Airbnb hosts’ motivations, and the regulation of short-term letting in Melbourne, Sydney and cities overseas.

Our findings suggest current owners are likely to benefit from the impacts of short-term letting platforms. Prospective owners and tenants may be disadvantaged.

Who feels the impacts of Airbnb?

Short-term letting is not a new economic activity. Hosts sharing their primary place of residence – such as taking in lodgers, offering bed and breakfast, and so on – have long been a feature of urban housing markets.

However, short-term letting platforms have fundamentally changed the scale of this activity. These platforms have made it more efficient and less risky, and greatly reduced the search costs.

Existing research on these platforms and the “sharing economy” suggests the growth in short-term letting affects different housing market participants in very different ways.

Our research shows that existing owners will likely benefit over time from the rise of these platforms. That’s because these sites offer a flexible means of monetising housing wealth to allow further consumption.

For prospective home owners, however, entering the market may become more difficult, as short-term letting earnings may be capitalised into higher purchase prices.

For tenants, there are few benefits. The rise in short-term letting is likely to cause greater uncertainty for prospective tenants seeking long-term rentals. There are risks and restrictions that limit the ability of current tenants to use the platforms to sublet.

Where does Airbnb have the most impact?

By making short-term letting more efficient and less risky, digital platforms have reduced numbers of long-term rental properties in some areas. Daniel Krason/Shutterstock

Despite some growth in more suburban areas, the spatial impact of Airbnb in both Sydney and Melbourne remains concentrated in high-demand inner-city areas. In these areas, two factors – decreasing bond lodgement rates and increasing property vacancies – point to the likelihood that short-term letting is removing properties from the long-term rental market. This in turn is contributing to increasing unaffordability.

The impact of Airbnb listings on rental housing markets has been very localised in Sydney and Melbourne.

In Sydney, Darlinghurst, Manly and the eastern beach suburbs of Bondi, Tamarama and Bronte have been the focus of Airbnb activity. In these areas, Airbnb listings account for between 11.2% and 14.8% of rental housing stock.

In Melbourne, central Melbourne, Docklands, Southbank, Fitzroy and St Kilda have been the focus of Airbnb listings, accounting for between 8.6% and 15.3% of rental housing stock.

However, the impacts of Airbnb on rental supply have been offset by:

  • substantial growth in dwelling numbers in key areas of Melbourne

  • large numbers of dwellings that are otherwise outside of long-term housing supply, including many unoccupied dwellings.

What motivates Airbnb hosts?

This research offers a new Australian perspective on Airbnb host motivations and decision-making, drawing on some of the most extensive empirical work to date.

The main motivation for hosting on Airbnb is to earn extra money from housing assets, in a way that is perceived to minimise risk. In some cases this income is tied to an immediate need for a buffer against housing insecurity. But this is not the case for many hosts.

Financial motivations were bolstered by the fact that hosting brings additional intrinsic benefits. These include the opportunity to connect with diverse people, and a sense of pride associated with being a good host. For many hosts, the flexibility to use the property occasionally, while also using it to earn money, was a significant advantage of short-term letting over long-term rental.

Some hosts have converted long-term rental properties into permanent Airbnb listings. However, some of these will likely return over time due to a perception of declining profitability, a greater workload associated with short-term letting, and the professionalisation of Airbnb. On the other hand, some hosts are motivated to expand their Airbnb portfolios with new acquisitions.

For other hosts, flexibility is key. Without Airbnb they would prefer to keep dwellings vacant rather than rent out long term. This points to other motivations for owning investment property than achieving maximum rental income.

Approaches to regulation

We reviewed regulation in Melbourne, Sydney and nine cities overseas in which short-term letting is a significant issue. Our review found three broad approaches to regulation:

  • a permissive approach – short-term letting is mostly allowed without prior permission or notification

  • a notificatory approach – short-term letting is mostly allowed, provided the host first notifies an authority (that is, there is no specific decision by the authority).

  • a restrictive approach – short-term letting is mostly banned, or allowed only where an authority gives specific permission.

Melbourne and Sydney have both recently adopted a permissive approach, with some limitations. However, we believe the notificatory approach is best adapted to managing new aspects of short-term letting in the Airbnb era.

Policy implications

The research findings suggest four ways to strengthen policy responses to short-term letting:

  • a registration system for listings, to help with enforcement

  • additional localised strategies to limit short-term letting and ensure adequate affordable rental supply in areas of intense activity

  • the integration of measures to limit commercial-style short-term letting within a broad-ranging housing policy, which reflects the changing nature of housing markets and the complex drivers behind these shifts

  • an ongoing research agenda into short-term letting across our cities and regional areas and its impact on housing and urban planning outcomes, supported by access to detailed, up-to-date data.

ref. Who wins and who loses when platforms like Airbnb disrupt housing? And how do you regulate it? – http://theconversation.com/who-wins-and-who-loses-when-platforms-like-airbnb-disrupt-housing-and-how-do-you-regulate-it-106234]]>

The Google walkout is a watershed moment in 21st century labour activism

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Walker, PhD candidate researching worker voice, University of Technology Sydney

That 20,000 Google employees walked off the job last week is a watershed event, a hugely significant symbolic development for labour relations in the 21st century.

Granted, the action itself was limited. More than seven out of every 10 Google employees did not take part. The walkout was for just a few hours, and the protesters returned to their desks with nothing resolved in their favour. Their only win was Google’s chief executive agreeing to meet with organisers to “review a plan that would address” their key demands.

But this is Google, supposedly the best company to work for in a sector renowned for luring the brightest and best with large salaries and excellent conditions. Google’s median salary (US$161,409) is the highest of any company. Like most high-tech workers, very few have seen any need to join a trade union.

Their walkout, which surpassed organisers’ expectations of 1,500 participants, shows collective organisation is still needed for employees to get a real say in their workplaces.

It also underlines a few important lessons for the labour movement. First, there is a change in the issues that younger workers care deeply about. Second, new technology has huge potential for labour organising.

Cracks in the Google veneer

Google consistenly tops rankings as the best place to work or the most sought after employer. A less attractive truth beneath the veneer has been revealed.

The spark leading to the walkout from 40 Google offices around the world was a New York Times article revealing the kid-glove treatment given to three Google executives accused of sexual misconduct. One case included a US$90 million golden handshake.

What incensed Google employees in particular is the company’s use of “mandatory arbitration”. This is when employment contracts prevent workers from seeking remedies in a court of law, forcing them to use company procedures instead. The Google case confirms what common sense tells us: internal channels will be more favourable to the company than to employees.


Read more: Why Google’s employees walked out and what it could mean for the future of labor


Mandatory arbitration clauses have become a significant issue in US employment relations in the past 20 years. More and more employees are excluded from full access to employment law protections.

Furthermore, even complaining often invites retribution. According to the US Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, retaliation by an employer is by far the most common form of workplace discrimination, accounting for 41,097 of the 84,254 charges the agency received in fiscal year 2017.

At Google, employees say human resources policies have disadvantaged complainants and enabled management to brush sexual harassment issues under the carpet.

“We’ve waited for leadership to fix these problems, “but have come to this conclusion: no one is going to do it for us,” the Google walkout organisers explained. “So we are here, standing together, protecting and supporting each other.”



Millennial values

Many of Google’s employees are in their twenties and thirties. The protest underscores the values younger people are bringing to work. Consider their five key demands:

  • an end to forced arbitration

  • a commitment to ending pay and opportunity inequity

  • a clear, uniform, globally inclusive process for reporting sexual misconduct

  • promote the company’s Chief Diversity Officer to answer directly to the CEO

  • appoint an employee representative to the company’s board.

These concerns show a generational shift in attitudes. It’s one reason the #MeToo movement has caught on.


Read more: Holding big tech companies to account: do their employees have the power?


A Deloitte survey of 10,000 “Millennials” (born between 1983 and 1994) shows they expect organisations to be ethical, to want to enhance their employees’ lives and careers, and to make a positive impact on society and the environment. They value a diverse and inclusive workplace.

Self-organisation

In echoes of other recent tech protests at Uber and Deliveroo, Google’s un-unionised workforce self-organised the walkout using message boards, messaging apps and social media – ironically the very tools made by Google and the other tech giants.

I’ve written about “digital unionism” before. The scale of what the Google walkout organisers managed in a few days without outside assistance underlines both the opportunity and threat of new technology. Unionism is also being “disrupted” in the new economy. Like other “old economy” businesses, unions have to adapt to survive. If they don’t perfect digital unionism, others will step in and do it themselves.

Collective bargaining ain’t dead

The bottom line is that human resources policies that purport to be there for the benefit of employees must be genuine. No one likes a one-way street, least of all when a unilateral process is purportedly a mechanism for employee voice. People want a genuine say over their working conditions.

Even from a completely self-interested perspective, companies that ignore this risk unpredictable blow-ups. Think Uber, Deliveroo and now Google.


Read more: How Google’s employee walkout will strengthen the company’s reputation


Maybe it’s time for Google to follow in the steps of other tech companies that have negotiated collective agreements with their workers.

In Sweden, the services union Unionen has signed a collective agreement covering the most unlikely workers: YouTubers, the people who generate YouTube content, to ensure they receive reasonable compensation. That agreement was not negotiated with YouTube but with the United Screens talent development agency.

If YouTube content generators, who are not even employees, can have a collective say over their working conditions, surely Google’s white-collar office workers can too.

ref. The Google walkout is a watershed moment in 21st century labour activism – http://theconversation.com/the-google-walkout-is-a-watershed-moment-in-21st-century-labour-activism-106353]]>

Little Women at 150 and the patriarch who shaped the book’s tone

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ryna Ordynat, PhD Candidate in History, Monash University

It’s 150 years since Little Women by Louisa May Alcott was published and in the time since, the book has never been out of print. The story of the March sisters struck a chord with readers – especially young girls – early on, and continues to resonate today.

Louisa May Alcott aged 20. Wikimedia Commons

The book’s continuing popularity is evident in the many film, theatre and TV adaptations. In 2018 alone, it was adapted into a film set in our modern-times and a heavily stylised TV mini-series, starring Emily Watson and Maya Thurman-Hawke. It is scheduled for yet another major Hollywood adaptation in 2019, directed by Greta Gerwig and starring Meryl Streep, Emma Watson and Saoirse Ronan.

Little Women follows the lives of the four March sisters, Meg, Jo, Beth and Amy, as they endure hardships, learn life lessons and build enduring bonds on their passage from childhood to womanhood. The first part of the book depicts the girls’ childhoods – their struggles with poverty and their own personalities and faults and how they overcome these obstacles. The second part is about them entering womanhood, marrying and becoming good wives, mothers and women.

The genteel poverty the March family endures is based on the real poverty the Alcott family experienced. The difference is that the poverty of the Alcott family was mostly imposed on them by Louisa’s father, Amos Bronson Alcott, a famous Transcendentalist educational reformer in his day.

Amos Bronson Alcott. Wikimedia Commons

In stark contrast to the book, and at a time when social conventions actively discouraged and frowned upon women undertaking paid employment, Bronson Alcott’s noble willingness to, as he put it, “starve or freeze before he will sacrifice principle to comfort” resulted in him not supporting his family financially. This forced his wife and daughters to provide for the family, and in Louisa’s case to write for money.

Bronson was wholly supported and encouraged by his wife, Abigail (Marmee in Little Women), to the complete bafflement and increasing frustration of Louisa. One of Alcott’s biographers suggests that the familiar sentimental tone in Little Women of poverty being dictated by circumstance, and something we should learn to bear, comes from her trying to cope with, and somehow justify her father’s outrageous lack of concern for the family’s financial well-being.

Louisa Alcott was devoted to and dominated by her parents, especially her father. His worldview was based on the romanticised and spiritual idea of inherent goodness and perfection of human beings. For many years, Bronson Alcott insisted to his daughter on the need for simple stories for boys and girls about how to overcome selfishness and anger, faults which he constantly pointed out in Louisa. Eventually, Bronson’s ideas made their way into Little Women, where the March sisters strive to achieve their perfect “womanliness”.

Louisa was a problem and a disappointment to her father – she was impatient and energetic, always “subject of her instinct” and showing, what Bronson called early signs of “impending evil”. Alcott made the choice to remain unmarried, yet, against her wishes, but mainly due to the demands of her publisher and her growing fan base, she did make Jo marry in the end.

Alcott may never have written Little Women at all, had she been more financially successful in the types of gothic fiction she excelled at and enjoyed writing. But she dreaded debts “more than the devil”. And her publisher pressured her with continuous requests for a book for girls – and a promise to publish her father’s book, Tablets, if she wrote one.

The death of Jo’s younger sister Beth is a memorable and tragic event in Little Women. Beth is the shyest of the sisters and lives a very secluded life. Her death is portrayed by Alcott as a sort of “self-sacrifice” as she gives up her life knowing that it has had only private, domestic meaning.

Alcott’s sister Elizabeth or “Lizzie”, did in fact die due to complications of scarlet fever. Beth’s death in the book is written to resemble a typical trope of Victorian literature – the sentimental, suffering, pathetic yet angelic “ideal” child. But Lizzie died in 1858, aged 22: in pain, angry and frightened, resenting the invisible, stifling life that was imposed on her largely by her parents. She may also have suffered from anorexia. Alcott witnessed the death of her sister in horror.

Emma Watson in Little Women. idmb

Ultimately, Little Women’s themes of love, grief and sisterly bonds still appeal to us. As Robin Swicord, who will produce the upcoming 2019 film adaptation says: “It’s really taking a look at what it is for a young woman to enter the adult world”. (She adds that “given the material, it’s always going to be romantic.”)

Yet many of the themes and morals of this book are sentimentalised and outdated today. They were inserted for reasons of convention, in order to provide moral instruction, or to appeal to the requests of a publisher.

Alcott wrote Little Women because her father wanted her to, and he dictated its terms, morals and lessons. It was an instant and enduring success, even though she did not want to write it, and it forced her to relive some of the most difficult years of her life. For readers (and viewers) today, understanding these circumstances enables a much more authentic, multi-layered and complex interpretation.

ref. Little Women at 150 and the patriarch who shaped the book’s tone – http://theconversation.com/little-women-at-150-and-the-patriarch-who-shaped-the-books-tone-102565]]>

New Caledonia vote stirs painful memories – and a hopeful future

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David Robie, who reported from New Caledonia during the 1980s for Islands Business magazine, New Zealand Times and other media, returned to the French Pacific possession to observe last weekend’s historic referendum. He was also on board the Rainbow Warrior, the Greenpeace environmental ship that was bombed by French secret agents during the height of “les évènements”. He reflects in the first of two articles.

By David Robie in Nouméa

Thirty four years ago, on 18 November 1984, Kanak pro-independence leader Éloi Machoro split a ballot box in half at Canala on the East Coast of New Caledonia. His supporters burned ballot papers in the opening salvo in an “active boycott” of French territorial elections.

I was there bearing witness and photos of the protest became symbolic around the world for the Kanak claim to self-determination and sovereignty.

The following month, on 5 December 1984, 10 unarmed Kanak activists were brutally murdered by mixed-race settlers in an ambush as they drove home through the forest from Hienghène to the village of Tiendanite. I was at the funeral, one of the most harrowing moments of my life.

NEW CALEDONIA INDEPENDENCE VOTE: WHAT NEXT?

The following year I was on board the Rainbow Warrior for more than 10 weeks on a humanitarian voyage to the Marshall Islands to help Rongelap islanders suffering from the legacy of nuclear testing. The ship was bombed by French secret agents on 10 July 1985, killing Portuguese-Dutch photojournalist Fernando Pereira.

As clashes and tension worsened over the next three years in New Caledonia, a group of young Kanak militants led by student activist Alphonse Dianou on 22 April 1988 nervously killed four gendarmes while taking 27 others hostage.

Kanak “security” leader during the 1984 election active boycott. His action with the axe in splitting open a ballot box at Canala led to a series of events culminating in his assassination by French security forces in 1985. Image: David Robie/PMC

-Partners-

A cave siege followed with security forces storming the hideout on 5 May 1988 and killing all the hostage-takers in what is known as the Ouvéa massacre.

The peace negotiations after the Ouvéa tragedy led to the Matignon Accord signed by anti-independence leader Jacques Lafleur and Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS) president Jean-Marie Tjibaou and the initial framework that led to the historic independence referendum in New Caledonia last Sunday.

January 1985 cover of Islands Business magazine (Fiji) after the Hienghène massacre. Cover images: David Robie/PMC

However, cultural philosopher and visionary Tjibaou and his deputy Yeiwene Yeiwene were in turn assassinated by Djubelly Wea in a further tragedy on 4 May 1989. I had shared a hotel room with the assassin at a conference in Manila just a few months earlier.

Slight unease
Returning to New Caledonia for this historic vote virtually three decades later, my earlier experiences – outlined in two of my books Blood On Their Banner (1989) and Don’t Spoil My Beautiful Face (2014) – gave me slight feelings of unease.

There has been 3o years of relative peace and social justice has definitely improved during that time – even if nowhere enough for the indigenous Kanak people – and there has been significant progress in terms of self-government and economic development.

But what would happen if this vote proved negative and growing aspirations of the Kanaks for a new nation of Kanaky New Caledonia were again denied. On the face of it, it seemed impossible for independence to triumph given the demographic realities.

The rioting and the barricades on the main road near the tribal area of St Louis on the outskirts of Nouméa on Monday were a taste of what might have been with frustrated youth if it had spiralled out of control.


SBS Pacific reporter Stefan Armbruster (left) and SBS French executive producer Christophe Mallet preparing a live news feed from the Noumea’s Hotel de Ville. Video: David Robie/PMC

While some local journalists on the ground were cautious, saying the referendum was hard to call with probably a 50/50 or 60/40 outcome, some anti-independence leaders had been brazenly declaring the election a done deal with a 70/30 outcome.

The conservative politicians have ended up with egg on their face. The pro-independence FLNKS and its ally Palika-UNI did a superb job in mobilising their supporters, especially the young.

Final results confounded the pundits. The “no” slipped to a 56.4 percent vote while the “yes” vote wrested a credible 43.6 percent share of the vote with a record 80.6 percent turnout.

Interesting statistics
Closer analysis of the figures produced some interesting statistics.

How they voted: Map showing the results and the breakdown of “yes” (shades of red) and “no” (blue) votes in the 35 communes of New Caledonia. Source: French High Commission/Les Nouvelles Caledoniennes

The cleavage of the territory into the “white” Southern” province and Nouméa, and the “brown” Northern and Loyalties provinces remained (see Part 2 tomorrow) but the stark divisions of the past appeared to be blurring in some places, reflecting an emerging common ground across ethnic divides.

The white South with the bulk of the European population and the core of the territory’s wealth polled a 73.7 percent no vote with 26.29 percent yes vote, a growing pro-independence movement.

Kanak voters in the “white” stronghold of Noumea vote at the Hotel de Ville – the city hall – polling centre. Image: David Robie/PMC

In contrast, in the North province where the FLNKS-ruled local government has consolidated its position. There was a 75.83 percent yes vote and 24.17 percent against.

In the Loyalty Islands, the vote was 82.18 percent yes and 17.82 percent no.

In Canala, where Machoro smashed open the ballot box, the vote was 94.27 percent yes and in Hienghène where the Tjibaou massacre happened (the leader lost two of his brothers in that ambush before he was assassinated) the yes was marginally higher at 94.75 percent.

However, the highest yes vote was in the tiny Belep islands off the northern tip of Grande Terre island. With barely 920 eligible voters, there was almost a 95 percent yes vote.


New Caledonian Independence Referendum Commission President Francis Lamy presenting the official result of the vote to media. Video: David Robie/PMC

‘Liberty, fraternity for all’
French President Emmanuel Macron welcomed the vote by New Caledonians to remain French, pledging that the republic would ensure ‘liberty, equality and fraternity” for all.

“The only loser is the temptation of contempt, division, violence and fear; the only winner is the process of peace and the spirit of dialogue,” Macron said in a state television address from Paris.


French Prime Minister Édouard Philippe arriving at the High Commission in Noumea. Video: David Robie/PMC

French Prime Minister Édouard Philippe flew to Nouméa from Vietnam on Monday for a day of meetings with political leaders, customary chiefs and voting commission officials to take stock of the referendum.

After meeting a range of leaders during the day and flying to Koné to meet President Paul Néaoutyine of the pro-independence stronghold Northern province, Philippe made a televised address from Premiere (the local affiliate of France TV) to the territory on Monday night.

Praising the people of New Caledonia for the peaceful conduct of the referendum, he called for a “meeting of the signatories” next month to consider the next step.

Prime Minister Philippe indicated that a fresh approach was now needed with a greater emphasis on social and economic development than political structures and to address “inequalities”.

The prime minister had lunch with students at the University of New Caledonia. Following his TV address and an evening “pool” interview with media, he flew back to Paris on Monday night.

‘Listening to us’
“Édouard Philippe was here to listen to us,” said FLNKS president Roch Wamytan. “Despite the opposition crowing that they were going to dominate 70/30, we have spoken of dialogue and negotiation.”

Anti-independence Rassemblement leader Pierre Frogier said the referendum result “anchors New Caledonia in France” and there was no need for further votes.

SBS French executive producer Christophe Mallet (left) and Pacific reporter Stefan Armbruster interview voters at Noumea’s Hotel de Ville. Image: David Robie/PMC

On referendum day, I travelled around with the SBS crew from Australia, reporter Stefan Armbruster and executive producer Christophe Mallet of SBS French radio. I was keen to get a sense of the reportage and I have the utmost respect for Armbruster’s reporting, particularly from a “diversity” perspective.

They endeavoured to get a “balanced” view of the voting mood by starting off at Nouméa’s Hotel de Ville in the heartland of “white” New Caledonia. They interviewed the first voter and also spoke to a range of voters with different stories to tell.

I was also impressed with their live crosses for both television and radio absorbing a sense of atmosphere and colour.

Leaving the town hall, we visited a new “decentralised” polling station for the Loyalty Island voters with a remarkably long queue for Lifou voters.

Law change
A law change was required in France earlier this year to enable the Nouméa -based islanders to vote without having to pay expensive airfares to get to their home islands.

“This is an incredible privilege for us to be here,” said French-born Mallet, who has lived in Australia for 16 years.

A voter, Boris Ajapuhnya, told Mallet in an SBS French interview this was their golden chance, for the Kanak people to express their wish in an historic vote.

“The moment is right now,” he said.

While the indépendantistes might have lost this vote, they did much better than expected. With up to two more referendums to come in 2012 and 2022, they are in a healthy negotiating position with a chance to win independence in the end.

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Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

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Democrats take House at US midterm elections, but Republicans keep Senate; Labor well ahead in Victoria

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne

US midterm elections were held today. All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senators were up for election. Democrats were defending 26 Senators, including some states that Trump won by big margins in 2016, and Republicans just nine.

Democrats won the House, regaining control of a chamber they lost at the 2010 midterms. They currently have a 218-192 seat lead over the Republicans, with 25 races uncalled, and have gained a net 26 seats. Democrats lead the House popular vote by 50.7-47.6, but this gap will widen as more Californian votes are counted over the coming weeks.

The New York Times House forecast currently gives Democrats a predicted final majority of 229-206 and a popular vote margin over the Republicans of 7.1%. Expectations were that Democrats needed to win the House popular vote by six to seven points to win control, owing to Republican gerrymandering and the concentration of Democratic votes in urban areas.

In the Senate, Republicans hold a 51-45 lead over Democrats, with four races uncalled. They gained Missouri, Indiana and North Dakota. Indiana and Missouri voted for Trump by 18-19 points in 2016, and North Dakota by 37 points. However, Republicans missed out in West Virginia, which voted for Trump by 42 points. West Virginia’s Senator, Joe Manchin, is a more conservative Democrat. The Democrats gained Nevada, somewhat compensating for losses.

The most disappointing Senate result for Democrats is likely to be Florida, which voted for Trump by just 1.2 points. But Republican Rick Scott, the current Florida governor, currently leads incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson by 50.2-49.8, with few votes outstanding. Strong rural turnout for the Republicans, and lack of turnout from Democratic-favouring Hispanics, was probably responsible for this result.

A Senate byelection in Mississippi used a “jungle primary” format, where all candidates, regardless of party, run on the same ballot paper. If nobody wins a majority, the top two proceed to a runoff. The Republicans will almost certainly win this seat after the runoff on November 25.

In the Senate, Democrats paid the price for a very strong performance when these seats were last up for election in 2012. Republicans will be defending 22 seats in 2020, and Democrats just 12. As the whole House is up for election, it is a better gauge of popular opinion than the Senate.

Trump’s final pre-election ratings in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate were 41.8% approve, 52.8% disapprove, for a net approval of -11.0. Trump’s approval slipped from 43.1% on October 23, a high he had last reached in March 2017.

I wrote for The Poll Bludger on Saturday that the vitriolic anti-immigrant rhetoric, with which Trump closed the campaign, was likely to be counterproductive in the House, where battleground districts had higher levels of educational attainment. However, the more rural battleground Senate states were easier to win. In my opinion, it would have been better for Trump to focus on the strong US economy in the final stretch.

These results will give Democrats a veto over any legislation proposed by Trump and the Republicans, and they will be able to set up House investigations into Trump. However, the Senate has the sole power to confirm presidential Cabinet-level and judicial appointments. The Supreme Court currently has a 5-4 conservative majority, so Democrats will hope that none of the left-wing judges dies in the next two years.

With four contests uncalled, Republicans led Democrats by 25-21 in state governors, a six seat gain for the Democrats. Governors and state legislatures are important as, in many states, politicians can draw federal boundaries.

Victorian Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The Victorian election will be held on November 24. A Newspoll conducted October 24-28 from a sample of 1,092 gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a three-point gain for Labor since April. Primary votes were 41% Labor (up three), 39% Coalition (down two) and 11% Greens (steady). One Nation will not contest the state election.

45% (up two) were satisfied with Premier Daniel Andrews, and 40% (down seven) were dissatisfied, for a net approval of +5, up nine points. Opposition Leader Matthew Guy’s net approval was -15, down two points. Andrews led Guy by 45-29 as better Premier (41-34 in April).

Labor led the Liberals by 45-37 on managing Victoria’s economy, a bad result for the Liberals as economic management tends to favour conservatives. Labor also led by 43-32 on maintaining energy supply and keeping power prices lower (42-40 in April). On law and order, a Liberal lead of 46-37 shrunk to just 39-38. Labor led by 33-30 on having the best plan for population growth.

We have had a recent Galaxy poll for the bus association that gave Labor a 53-47 lead. This Newspoll adds to the impression that Labor is pulling away, and should win the election easily.

ref. Democrats take House at US midterm elections, but Republicans keep Senate; Labor well ahead in Victoria – http://theconversation.com/democrats-take-house-at-us-midterm-elections-but-republicans-keep-senate-labor-well-ahead-in-victoria-106334]]>

Politics with Michelle Grattan: Andrew Giles on the growing issue of loneliness

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Ahead of the release of the most comprehensive data on loneliness in Australia – by the Australian Psychologists Society – Labor frontbencher Andrew Giles speaks to The Conversation about this “contagious phenomenon”.

Loneliness is a growing issue, Giles says. It’s not just among older Australians, as often conventionally thought, but also a problem for young people – with social media, paradoxically, a contributing factor.

Giles who is working on a loneliness policy, thinks it is an area where politicians can “reach across the aisle”. He will co-sponsor a motion with Liberal MP Julian Leeser on the need to better understand the policy challenge.

ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Andrew Giles on the growing issue of loneliness – http://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-andrew-giles-on-the-growing-issue-of-loneliness-106544]]>

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