Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The Greens’ only House of Representatives member, Adam Bandt, is the party’s new leader, elected unanimously after Richard Di Natale’s decision to leave parliament.

Bandt, 47, has held the inner city seat of Melbourne since 2010, and most recently served as co-deputy of the parliamentary party. He is the Greens’ spokesman on climate change.

Queensland senator Larissa Waters was elected co-deputy leader and Senate leader. Tasmania’s Nick McKim was elected co-deputy leader and deputy Senate leader.

Senators Mehreen Faruqi and Sarah Hanson-Young also ran for the co-deputy position.

Rachel Siewert was elected whip and Janet Rice was elected to the new position of deputy whip.

Bandt’s challenge will be to manage from the lower house what is essentially a Senate party – the Greens have nine senators. Previous leaders Bob Brown, Christine Milne and Di Natale were senators.

Given the fact the government is in a minority in the upper house, tactics are important there and the play can move quickly.

Bandt said before the ballot he would talk to his colleagues “about how we share leadership across the House and the Senate as we fight the climate emergency and inequality”.

Di Natale defeated Bandt in 2015 when the leadership last came up.

Bandt, a former lawyer, lives in Melbourne with wife Claudia and daughters Wren and Elke. He was the first Greens MP elected to the lower house at a general election.

Di Natale announced his resignation on Monday, citing family reasons.

Read more: Richard Di Natale quits Greens leadership, as Barnaby Joyce seeks a tilt at Michael McCormack

– ref. Adam Bandt elected unopposed as new Greens leader – https://theconversation.com/adam-bandt-elected-unopposed-as-new-greens-leader-131126

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The Greens’ only House of Representatives member, Adam Bandt, is the party’s new leader, elected unanimously after Richard Di Natale’s decision to leave parliament.

Bandt, 47, has held the inner city seat of Melbourne since 2010, and most recently served as co-deputy of the parliamentary party. He is the Greens’ spokesman on climate change.

Queensland senator Larissa Waters was elected co-deputy leader and Senate leader. Tasmania’s Nick McKim was elected co-deputy leader and deputy Senate leader.

Rachel Siewert was elected whip and Janet Rice was elected to the new position of deputy whip.

Bandt’s challenge will be to manage what is essentially a Senate party – the Greens have nine senators – from the lower house. The party’s previous leaders – Bob Brown, Christine Milne and Di Natale – were senators. Given the fact the government is in a minority in the upper house, tactics are important there and the play can move quickly.

Bandt said before the ballot he would talk to his colleagues “about how we share leadership across the House and the Senate as we fight the climate emergency and inequality”.

In 2015, when the leadership last came up, Bandt lost to Di Natale.

Di Natale announced his resignation on Monday, cited family reasons.

Read more: Richard Di Natale quits Greens leadership, as Barnaby Joyce seeks a tilt at Michael McCormack

– ref. Adam Bandt is new Greens leader – https://theconversation.com/adam-bandt-is-new-greens-leader-131126

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anne Twomey, Professor of Constitutional Law, University of Sydney

The dismissal of the Whitlam government in 1975 remains as controversial as ever. Its last chapter is to be decided by the High Court, with proceedings about public access to the letters between the governor-general, Sir John Kerr, and the queen, being heard on February 4.

Government files on the crisis were released by the National Archives under the 30-year rule and Kerr’s own private notes and reminiscences, which he deposited with the archives, have also been released. But the letters that Kerr sent to the queen, through her private secretary, about the crisis and any replies, have not been released because they have been treated as “private” correspondence owned by Kerr, and subject to the conditions he placed on them.

Read more: Relics of colonialism: the Whitlam dismissal and the fight over the Palace letters

Conditions of access

The conditions were that they be opened 60 years after Kerr ceased to be governor-general, after “consultation” with the monarch’s private secretary and the official secretary to the governor-general. This was later unilaterally changed, on the queen’s instructions, to 50 years, but with the “approval” (rather than consultation) of the representatives of the monarch and the governor-general. It remains unclear what power the queen had to change and control conditions on access, if the documents belonged to Kerr, as it is claimed, and not the queen.

This change in the deposit conditions is critical, because we now know that the Palace is refusing access to correspondence with any of the queen’s former governors-general, even when the 50 years is up, for a period until at least five years after the death of the queen, and then only if the new monarch agrees.

This means it may never be released, or may be redacted or released only in part.

Public or private correspondence?

One problem with assessing whether the correspondence is public or private in nature is that none of the decision-makers, including the courts, have seen the letters. But experience can tell us a few things about them. First, the queen never personally engages in correspondence with her governors-general. All correspondence goes through her private secretary, and it is he (as they have always been male) who responds to the governor-general.

In times past, when the governor-general was a member of the British aristocracy or upper classes, there was a “personal” element to this correspondence. Letters from Lord Stonehaven, when he was Australia’s governor-general from 1925 to 1930, to the King’s private secretary included discussions about shooting parties, children at Eton and general gossip.

Lord Byng, when governor-general of Canada and facing his own constitutional crisis, addressed the King’s formidable private secretary, Lord Stamfordham, as “My Beloved Stamfy”. There was a mix, at that time, of personal and official roles.

But since the governor-general has been an Australian, the personal aspect has disappeared, and the correspondence became quarterly reports informing the monarch of political, economic, trade, agricultural and social conditions in Australia. The purpose was, and remains, to ensure the monarch is well informed and can therefore more effectively fulfil his or her role with respect to Australia.

Read more: Australian politics explainer: Gough Whitlam’s dismissal as prime minister

In addition, there was an obligation on the governor-general to explain any exercise of a power that was done without, or contrary to, ministerial advice, such as refusing a dissolution or dismissing a government. This was strictly enforced.

It is therefore clear, and accepted by the parties, that the correspondence was entered into by Kerr and the queen’s private secretary, as part of their official functions. It was not “personal” in the sense that it concerned family or social matters. It was only personal in the sense that Kerr was writing to the queen personally about how he had fulfilled his functions as her representative. Yet, in doing so, he was fulfilling an official function of the office.

Who owns property in the letters?

The Archives Act makes a distinction between “Commonwealth records”, which are “property of the Commonwealth” and the records belonging to private individuals. So the question is, who owns the “property” in the letters? This raises consideration of who owns the piece of paper the letter is written on, who holds copyright in the letter, whether the sender or recipient owns the letters (and any copies they kept), the capacity in which the letters were written and who currently possesses the letters.

The question for the High Court is which of these factors are relevant or decisive when reading the term “Commonwealth records” in the context of the entire Act, including its purpose of preserving and giving public access to the nation’s historical records.

In the past, some governors-general had taken these letters with them on leaving office. If this indicated they believed they owned the letters, is this enough? Belief would not normally be enough to transfer ownership in a document written by an officer of the Commonwealth in an official capacity.

The Archives Act also recognises that Commonwealth records may end up in private hands, and when private collections are deposited with the archives, any documents within that collection that are “Commonwealth records” are to be treated as such.

This means they must be kept confidential for the requisite period (which has been progressively reduced from 30 years to 20 years) and publicly released if not subject to other exemptions, regardless of any conflicting conditions applied by the depositor.

What is at stake?

If correspondence between the governor-general and the queen is treated as “private” records, rather than Commonwealth records, significant risks arise.

First, this means that whoever inherits the property of the governor-general could sell these records to the highest bidder, at any time, without any secrecy limits or government control. It could be sold to a media organisation that prematurely publicises and sensationalises the letters for profit, or to a private collector who never makes the letters public.

Second, where the documents have been deposited with the archives as a “private” collection, and made subject to conditions that they not be released without the approval of the monarch’s private secretary, they may never be released, or released only in a limited and misleading form.

In both cases, there is a significant risk that Australians will be denied access to, and understanding of, not only one of the greatest political crises in Australia’s history, but how the highest offices in the land actually operate in our system of government. It is hard to believe the Archives Act could be interpreted as operating in a manner that would deny Australians control over and access to such important records of their history.

– ref. Explainer: what is the ‘palace letters’ case and what will the High Court consider? – https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-the-palace-letters-case-and-what-will-the-high-court-consider-131000

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Allen Cheng, Professor in Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, Monash University

We usually think of viral respiratory infections, like the common cold, as mild nuisances that pass in a few days. But the Wuhan coronavirus has proven to be different. Of those infected, around 2% are reported to have died but the true mortality is unknown.

There’s much we’re yet to learn about this new virus, but we know it often causes pneumonia, an infection of the lungs which produces pus and fluid and reduces the lungs’ ability to absorb oxygen.

Of the first 99 people with severe infection, three-quarters had pneumonia involving both lungs. Around 14% appeared to have lung damage caused by the immune system, while 11% suffered from multi-organ system failure, or sepsis.

Others are at risk of complications from being treated in hospitals, such as acquiring other infections.

Read more: How contagious is the Wuhan coronavirus and can you spread it before symptoms start?

At this stage, we know some people develop only a mild infection, while others become critically ill, but the exact proportion of each is not yet clear.

Overall, there are four key ways the Wuhan coronavirus can cause severe disease – and some can occur at the same time.

1. Direct viral damage

For the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) coronavirus, direct viral damage was probably the most common way the infection caused disease. This is likely the case with the Wuhan coronavirus.

Early studies have found the Wuhan coronavirus attaches to a particular receptor found in lung tissue. This is like a lock and key mechanism allowing the virus to enter the cell, and is the same receptor the SARS coronavirus used.

Viruses “hijack” the host cell’s mechanisms to make more copies of itself. Damage results from either viruses taking over the cell completely and causing it to die, or immune cells recognising the viral infection and mounting a defence, triggering cell death.

If large numbers of cells die, then the affected organ can’t function effectively.

Studies from patients who died from SARS coronavirus showed the virus caused damage to not only the lungs, but also other organs in the body. Early research suggests the Wuhan coronavirus can also damage other organs, including the kidneys.

2. Pneumonia

While we’re still piecing together the relationship between the Wuhan coronavirus and pneumonia, there’s much we can learn from influenza.

Influenza is a virus but it commonly leads to bacterial pneumonia – this is what’s known as a secondary infection.

It’s thought the influenza virus weakens the usual protective mechanisms of the lung, allowing bacteria to establish and multiply. This is especially true in children, older people and those with compromised immune systems.

Secondary bacterial pneumonia is more severe than influenza alone – in hospitalised patients, around 10% of those with influenza and pneumonia die, compared to around 2% of those who don’t have pneumonia.

The Wuhan coronavirus appears to cause pneumonia in two ways: when the virus takes hold in the lungs, and through secondary bacterial infections, however, the first way appears to be more common.

3. Sepsis

Sepsis is a serious condition that can be caused by many infections.

When we get an infection, we need to mount an immune response to fight off the pathogen. But an excessive immune response can cause damage and organ failure. This is what happens in the case of sepsis.

Read more: What is sepsis and how can it be treated?

Although it can be difficult to determine whether organ damage from the Wuhan coronavirus is a result of direct viral infection or indirect “collateral damage” from the immune system, initial reports suggested around 11% of people severely ill with the Wuhan coronavirus experienced sepsis with multi-organ failure.

So far no drugs or interventions have been able to dampen this immune response. Although several treatments have been proposed for Wuhan coronavirus, none have yet been shown to work.

4. Complications of hospital care

Finally, patients who require hospital care may have complications. These include infections from intravenous lines (for drips/medication) or urinary catheters (flexible tubes inserted into the bladder to empty it of urine), pneumonia, or non-infectious complications such as falls or pressure sores.

Studies have found 10% of patients in hospital have some sort of health care-acquired infection, and around 5% have a pressure sore.

Hospitals work hard to try to prevent these complications, by making sure health care workers disinfect their hands and other equipment. However, complications still occur, particularly in patients who are debilitated from long hospital stays.

Read more: 1 in 10 patients are infected in hospital, and it’s not always with what you think

While most respiratory viral infections are mild, some can trigger serious complications, either directly or indirectly. It’s too early to tell how often this occurs with the Wuhan coronavirus. While we have initial data on those who were severely affected, many others may not have required medical care.

– ref. How does the Wuhan coronavirus cause severe illness? – https://theconversation.com/how-does-the-wuhan-coronavirus-cause-severe-illness-130864

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Denise Goodwin, Research Fellow, BehaviourWorks Australia, Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash University

As the devastation of this season of bushfires unfolds, many people have asked themselves: what can I do to help? Perhaps they donated money, left food out for wildlife or thought about joining a bush regeneration group.

Big, life-changing moments – whether society-wide or personal – provide unique opportunities to disrupt habits and foster new behaviours. Think of how a heart attack can prompt some people to adopt a healthier lifestyle.

For many Australians, the bushfire disaster could represent such a turning point, marking the moment they adopt new, long-term actions to help nature. But governments and environmental organisations must quickly engage people before the moment is lost.

Creatures of habit

Human behaviour is generally habitual, resistant to change, and shaped by context such as time of day, location or social group. But when this context is disrupted, opportunities emerge to foster change.

Take the case of taking action on climate change. Research into public perceptions, including in Australia, suggests most people see climate change as not personally relevant. In other words, they are “psychologically distant” from the problem. This means they are less likely to adopt pro-environmental behaviors.

Read more: Fire almost wiped out rare species in the Australian Alps. Feral horses are finishing the job

But the bushfire crisis was personally relevant to millions of Australians. Some tragically lost loved ones or homes. Thousands were forced to evacuate or had holidays cut short. And the smoke haze which engulfed our cities badly interfered with daily life.

Such ruptures are described in psychology and behavioural science as a moment of change, which means the time is ripe to encourage new behaviours.

Where there’s a will

Even before the fire crisis, many Australians were primed to act for nature.

In 2018 we conducted a survey which found 86% of Victorians support pro-environmental and pro-social values, 95% are aware of the condition of Victoria’s environment and the importance of biodiversity, and more than 64% feel connected to nature.

Experience of previous natural disasters provides further insights into why people might volunteer.

Read more: Pulling out weeds is the best thing you can do to help nature recover from the fires

After the 2011 Rena oil spill in New Zealand, communities came together to quickly remove oil from the coastline. Subsequent research found people volunteered for a range of reasons. This included a sense of collective responsibility for the environment for both current and future generations, and to connect with others and cope with their negative response to the spill.

One model of behaviour change theory suggests if people have the motivation, capability and opportunity, they are more likely to act.

Australians have shown motivation and capability to act in this bushfire crisis – now they need opportunities. Governments and environmental organisations should encourage easy behaviours people can perform now.

Putting it into practice

Timeliness is essential in promoting new behaviours. Organisations should limit the time that passes between a person’s first impulse to help – such as signing up to a volunteer organisation – and concrete opportunities to act.

Volunteering groups should communicate early with volunteers, find out what skills and resources they can offer then provide easy, practical suggestions for acting quickly.

In the short term, this might mean suggesting that concerned citizens keep their cats indoors and dogs under control, particularly near areas affected by the fires; take a bag on their beach walk to pick up litter and debris; or advocate for the environment by talking with family and friends about why nature needs protecting.

Read more: Friday essay: this grandmother tree connects me to Country. I cried when I saw her burned

In the longer term, these behaviours could be scaled up to activities such as encouraging people to fill their garden with native plants to provide new habitat for wildlife; regularly volunteering for nature, and participating in citizen science projects.

Governments, councils and other organisations should provide information that guides the activities of volunteers, but still gives them control over how they act. This can lead to positive initiatives such as Landcare, which allows local people to design solutions to environmental problems.

Analysis of natural disaster response overseas has shown that decentralised approaches which incorporate local communities work well.

The long-term picture

There is a danger that once the immediate shock of the bushfire crisis passes, some people will return to their old behaviours. However research has shown when people undertake one pro-environmental behaviour, they are more likely to repeat it in future.

Encouraging people to help nature, and spend time in it, can also improve a person’s physical and mental well-being.

After the New Zealand oil spill cleanup, for example, most volunteers reported a sense of satisfaction, better social ties and renewed optimism.

This summer’s east coast bushfires are a tragedy. But if the moment is harnessed, Australians can create new habits that help the environment in its long process of recovery. And perhaps one day, acting for nature will become the new social norm.

– ref. Lots of people want to help nature after the bushfires – we must seize the moment – https://theconversation.com/lots-of-people-want-to-help-nature-after-the-bushfires-we-must-seize-the-moment-130874

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elaine Stratford, Professor of Geography, University of Tasmania

Many people want changes to the law to deal with the increased use of e-scooters in Australia.

In general, the debate appears to be concerned mainly with safety and the different rates at which things move. Walking pedestrians are slower, motor vehicles are faster. Road infrastructure is not often designed for mixed uses.

I would argue both that the current debate is based on outdated assumptions about transport, transport technology and road users, and that it is now time to rethink the assumptions underpinning the Australian Road Rules. At present, for example, the Rules do not account for the emergence and adoption of new forms of transport like e-scooters, nor for other transport technologies that might morph from “recreational” devices such as hoverboards or segues.

A more creative approach would be to consider the larger opportunities that could transform how we move and connect. We could make transport more equitable, more sustainable and safer for all road users by rewriting the rules and retrofitting roads.

Road rules reflect assumptions about transport

Living in safe communities and benefiting from effective transport infrastructure means observing the Australian Road Rules. These rules are a national model that gives consistency to state and territory laws.

Under the rules, roads are areas on which to drive or ride motor vehicles (s.12.1). The definition of motor vehicles excludes motorised scooters (p.329).

Roads are complex spaces. Roads include shoulders (kerbed areas, unsealed sections, and sealed sections outside edge lines) and exclude bicycle, foot or shared paths (s.12.3). Different from shoulders, road-related areas comprise things that divide roads: footpaths and nature strips; public access areas used by animals or cyclists; and public areas on which to drive, ride, or park (s.13.1.d).

The rules define road users as drivers, riders, passengers and pedestrians (s.14). Pedestrians include users of motorised and non-motorised wheelchairs and those pushing either type of wheelchair (s.18.a–c), and speed limits apply. Importantly, users of wheeled recreational devices or wheeled toys are also pedestrians (s.18.c–d).

Wheeled recreational devices are “built to transport a person” even though they are “ordinarily used for recreation or play” (Australian Road Rules, p.338). They include roller blades and skates, skateboards, unicycles and all forms of scooter. In contrast, wheeled toys exclude motorised scooters, but include objects such as tricycles, and apply to children under 12.

The rules are to keep people and property safe — a goal also shaped but often overshadowed by economic imperatives. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), 1.34 million road deaths worldwide in 2016 amounted to the eighth leading cause of death. There were also 50 million injuries. Indeed, the WHO reports that road traffic injuries lead the cause of death for those aged five to 29, and the “burden is disproportionately borne by pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists”.

Australia’s road safety record is comparatively sound, worth noting for a population that, in 2018, numbered over 24 million and had over 18 million registered vehicles, including almost 17 million cars and four-wheeled light vehicles. Even so, in 2016 the WHO reported 1,351 road traffic fatalities in Australia: 45% were drivers, 16% passengers and 14% pedestrians (including those on wheeled devices). These statistics mirror those in Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the USA.

No matter how sound the road rules, and no matter how carefully we observe them, people die on roads. Among the reasons for that are the different speeds at which we move and the fact that our transport infrastructures cater poorly to mixed uses.

The case for retrofitting roads

Understandably, the Australian Road Rules are supposed to ensure transport infrastructures are used in ways for which they were designed or for which they can reasonably be adapted. That is why the rules put such emphasis on zones, speed limits, lines and signs — none of which, granted, can determine our safe or unsafe practices.

But what is reasonable? The rules reveal several possibly unreasonable assumptions about pedestrians who use wheeled devices.

For example, rule definitions emphasise recreation and play and lag behind real change among (mostly) young people opting to use such devices as transport. Legally they can, but road and road-related infrastructure simply does not accommodate that shift. It could.

So, as well as ensuring all road users continue to be safe as new technologies such as e-scooters come online, surely politicians and policymakers at all levels of government must be encouraged to see the larger opportunities.

We know that walking produces among the most democratic spaces of city life. There is every possibility to extend our thinking about that pedestrian act and consider how to embed wheeled devices into the urban fabric. Elsewhere, I have referred to such opportunities as ones that foster the geographies of generosity.

We are, I think, missing the chance to have creative conversations leading to innovative systems of radically retrofitted transport networks that are safe, have amenity, produce environmental gains and continue to democratise social life. Road networks take up great tracts of urban land, but it is possible to retrofit them for just, more equitable and more sustainable outcomes.

We could generate powerfully creative ideas about retrofitting what we have and make much stronger commitments to do that. Those ideas could translate to economic activity and might save lives.

– ref. The old road rules no longer apply: how e-scooters challenge outdated assumptions – https://theconversation.com/the-old-road-rules-no-longer-apply-how-e-scooters-challenge-outdated-assumptions-129074

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Kirchner, Program Director, Trade and Investment, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney

When the Reserve Bank board meets today for the first time this year it is likely to leave its cash rate unchanged at the current all-time low 0.75%.

Afterwards, it will announce its reasons, many of them good. But they’ve not always been good.

Reserve Bank cash rate

One with little to back it up was included in the minutes of the November meeting.

It said members “recognised the negative effects of lower interest rates on savers and confidence.”

Similar claims have been made by members of the business community, especially bank executives whose profit margins are threatened by low interest rates.

For example, Westpac chief executive Brian Hartzer told a parliamentary committee in November that rate cuts were being seen as

a negative symbol rather than a positive symbol, in that they’re a sign that something’s wrong or that there’s a weakness in the economy

According to media reports, concern about the impact of cuts on confidence was a factor in the government’s decision to leave its agreement with the Reserve Bank on targets unchanged rather than strengthening it in order to more aggressively target inflation.

What’s the evidence?

The theory would be that even though interest rate cuts put more money in households’ pockets than they take out, the announcement that a cut is needed might convince householders that conditions are worse than they had thought.

In support of the proposition could be the coincidence that the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment dived to a four month low in October after the Reserve Bank cut, and then improved somewhat in November after it decided not to.

But more systematic study of the index by Melbourne Institute researchers Edda Claus and Viet Hoang Nguyen, finds that for the most part consumers respond positively to rate cuts and negatively to rate hikes, responding more to cuts than hikes.

My own research, forthcoming in the Australian Economic Review, also finds consumers correctly interpret rate hikes as a net negative for the economic outlook and rate cuts as a net positive. The response of businesses is more mixed.

Read more: 0.75% is a record low, but don’t think for a second the Reserve Bank has finished cutting the cash rate

The Reserve Bank’s own research finds that while declines in confidence following rate cuts are understandable given economic conditions are probably deteriorating, the cuts themselves moderate, not amplify the decline.

US studies reach similar conclusions. Research conducted for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that a surprise 0.25 points hike in the Federal Funds led to an immediate 1 to 2 points deterioration in the University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment.

The authors of the Dallas Fed study note this means that consumers correctly interpret an increase in US official interest rates as negative for the economy, even if it might also be seen as signalling a stronger economic outlook.

When it comes to rate cuts, even so-called “unconventional monetary policy” of the kind underway in the US and being considered by Australia’s Reserve Bank, the authors found nothing in their study to suggest they harmed confidence.

And even if rate cuts did hurt confidence…

Of course, even if cuts in interest rates and unconventional monetary policy did harm confidence, that wouldn’t be an argument against them.

Were the Reserve Bank to hold off on acting on its assessment of the economy because it was concerned about about damaging confidence, the result would be higher-than-needed interest rates, which would themselves damage the economy.

The bank’s caution would backfire on it and those in the financial sector with a short-sighted focus on lending margins rather than the health of the economy.

– ref. The evidence suggests Reserve Bank rate cuts don’t hurt confidence – https://theconversation.com/the-evidence-suggests-reserve-bank-rate-cuts-dont-hurt-confidence-130799

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alana Piper, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of Technology Sydney

In the first decade of the 20th century, Australians were focused on the future. It was the dawn of a new century, and of a newly formed nation.

Perhaps this forward outlook was part of why fortune-telling was being heralded as the latest “craze” in local newspapers. Fortunetellers populated market stalls, shop arcades, travelling sideshows, private homes, society parties and even church fetes as they used teacups, crystal balls, cards or spirit guides to peer into people’s futures.

Yet fortune-telling was illegal under laws inherited from England. Some feisty futurists challenged the legality of these anti fortune-telling provisions. In response, during the early decades of the 20th century legislators around Australia affirmed fortune-telling’s criminal status in statutory law.

It was only in the 21st century that most Australian jurisdictions repealed these laws. Even today, telling fortunes for payment remains a crime in South Australia and the Northern Territory.

Clientele

Fortune-telling for financial gain was criminalised because such activity was viewed as fraud. Occasionally attempts were made to defend against fortune-telling charges on the grounds that a psychic had genuine abilities – or genuinely believed they did – and so their actions were not fraud. However, the wording of legislation against fortune-telling was so definitive that judges ruled such matters irrelevant; at law, fortune-telling was automatically a form of pretence.

According to Australian newspapers in the 1900s, the main “victims” of this pretence were women. Paternalistic editorials argued for police crackdowns on fortune-telling in order to protect “members of the weaker sex” from themselves.

While men also visited fortunetellers, they were portrayed as doing so less often, and usually to seek answers to practical inquiries about investment opportunities or locating lost property. Women’s reasons for visiting fortunetellers were represented to be more frivolous, and rooted in innate female character defects.

Women apparently became hooked on visiting fortunetellers due to preoccupations with romance and gossip, or because their “neurotic impulses” left them credulous.

Newspapers warned of the dangerous repercussions fortune-telling might have for “weak-minded women”. Suburban matrons were accused of frittering away household funds on charlatanism.

It was joked that housemaids would quit their jobs on the basis of prophecies of rich husbands soon to come. Marriages were said to be breaking down as clairvoyants confirmed wives’ suspicions about their husbands’ infidelity, or counselled them that separation would bring brighter prospects.

It was also feared that fortunetellers provided a conduit to abortionists and contraceptive information for women worried that their future would bring children conceived outside wedlock or that they could not afford.

Yet, for many, a visit to a psychic was probably simply an affordable entertainment in an era before the “talkies”, much less Netflix, arrived. For others, fortune-telling consultations perhaps provided a positive outlet where they could talk through emotional life events; a kind of informal counselling long before such services became available.

Practitioners

The typical cost of a psychic reading during the Federation period was two shillings sixpence (equivalent to the price of a film ticket now). A clairvoyant with a few dozen regular clients could expect to earn around four pounds each week, twice the average pay of a domestic servant.

Some celebrated seers earned considerably more. By the time of her 1928 death, Mary Scales, an illiterate laundress turned fortuneteller, had amassed a fortune that would be the equivalent of several million dollars today.

The practitioners of fortune-telling, like the clientele, consisted mostly of women. It was an occupation that women could embark upon with few business costs while working from home.

Deserted wives and widows with children to support featured disproportionately in those prosecuted for fortune-telling. So did older women, particularly those with ailments that meant they could no longer undertake more physically taxing work in factories or domestic service.

Newspapers voiced resentment that women – particularly working-class women – should be earning good money at a trade that was technically illegal but openly practised, and even advertised in the papers themselves.

It was ridiculous, one paper stated, that “the fact that she was a washerwoman yesterday will not debar the fool crowd from believing she is a sorceress to-day”.

Another journalist urged women to confine themselves to domestic duties or, if forced to earn their own living, seek more genteel occupations. Dog-walking was considered a step up.

Many women with a love for dogs, but dislike for the necessary care and exercise of them, are glad to turn those duties over to someone else, and it seems as if any one of the humble ways of earning a livelihood were preferable to the palmistry, fortune-telling, mediums and phrenological lines of business.

Of 247 reported prosecutions of fortune-telling in Australia between 1900 and 1918, 82% were against women.

Several of the men prosecuted were charged as accomplices, minding the shopfront of wives or female relatives who were doing a thriving business in fortune-telling. Most of the others came from non Anglo-Saxon backgrounds, the association of divination with “foreign” superstition another factor in the prevailing prejudices against it.

Police

Despite public criticism of fortune-telling, it was only intermittently policed. This was because it was not enough that an individual was known to be or even advertising themselves as a fortune-teller; prosecution required a witness to money being exchanged for a reading.

Collecting this evidence involved officers going undercover to pose as clients, with police in major cities undertaking such sting operations every few years during the 1900s.

However, as police at the time were all men, fortunetellers were increasingly suspicious of male customers. Some started taking the precaution of only seeing female clients.

To overcome this, police began hiring women to pose as clients during the periodic fortune-telling raids. When women were later introduced into police forces across Australia during World War One, they were quickly set to prosecuting clairvoyants.

There was increased pressure to crack down on fortune-tellers due to fears that they were preying on soldiers’ loved ones, or that predictions of dire futures might undermine recruiting efforts and national morale.

Ultimately, fortune-telling’s declining popularity by the 1920s was not the result of policing, but the rise of other entertainments. Both fortune-telling and legislation against it continued to exist, sparking occasional prosecutions across the 20th century. It is only in the last 20 years that most states have decriminalised it, having recognised that cases that involve the defrauding of actual victims can be adequately dealt with under existing fraud legislation.

Making a Fortune was made by Impact Studios at the University of Technology, Sydney – a new audio production house combining academic research and audio storytelling. This podcast is available for download through the award winning History Lab podcast. It is the second episode in the four-part series, The Law’s Way of Knowing.

– ref. Did they see it coming? How fortune-telling took hold in Australia – with women as clients and criminals – https://theconversation.com/did-they-see-it-coming-how-fortune-telling-took-hold-in-australia-with-women-as-clients-and-criminals-130134

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The Nationals have exploded into a major crisis with Resources Minister Matt Canavan offering his resignation from the ministry on Monday to throw his support behind Barnaby Joyce’s bid to oust Michael McCormack from the leadership.

In a Monday night news conference Canavan told reporters the Nationals needed “a bulldog”, “a fighter”.

Earlier Joyce informed McCormack he would challenge, with a spill to be moved when the party meets on Tuesday morning.

The Nationals’ meltdown has been triggered by the forced resignation of Bridget McKenzie from the cabinet and Nationals deputy leadership, after the secretary of the Prime Minister’s department, Phil Gaetjens, found she had breached ministerial standards by not declaring her membership of gun clubs in the sports rorts affair.

While only a new deputy needed to be elected, Joyce has seized the opportunity to make his leadership run. On Monday night the numbers were unclear in the McCormack-Joyce battle.

The leadership fight is driven by Joyce’s unrelenting desire to return to the job he had to forfeit in early 2018 amid a scandal around his personal life.

But it is fuelled by widespread criticism of McCormack, both inside and outside the Nationals, for a perceived lack of cut-through. This is despite the fact the Nationals held their ground at the 2019 election.

Read more: Barnaby Joyce: the story of an unlikely rise and a self-inflicted fall

Canavan made it clear a switch to Joyce would mean a more forthright stand on policy by the Nationals – by extension within the Coalition. This would make the relationship much more difficult for Scott Morrison. McCormack’s critics within the party accuse him of being too subservient to Morrison.

Most immediately, a change of leader would mean a new Coalition agreement, with the Nationals demanding extra concessions.

Joyce recently attracted attention with his “Merry Christmas” video, showing him feeding cattle, in which he gave his take on the climate issue.

“Now you don’t have to convince me that the climate’s not changing, it is changing – my problem’s always been whether you believe a new tax is going to change it back. I just don’t want the government any more in my life; I’m sick of the government being in my life.

“And the other thing is, I think, we’ve got to acknowledge … there’s a higher authority beyond our comprehension … right up there in the sky. Unless we understand that it’s got to be respected, then we’re just fools, and we’re going to get nailed.”

One issue for the Nationals is how a return to Joyce would be received by women in regional areas, among some of whom his reputation was tarnished by allegations of sexual harassment. The Guardian on Monday reported a number of rural women opposing his reinstatement.

Joyce on Monday said the National party had to be on the “balls of its toes as we face some of the most challenging times.

“We have to speak with our own voice and we have to drive agendas because it is going to be an incredibly tough game for people in regional areas,” he said.

“We’ve got to make sure that we are not a shadow of another party.”

Read more: Richard Di Natale quits Greens leadership, as Barnaby Joyce seeks a tilt at Michael McCormack

While praising McCormack’s “tireless” campaigning efforts, Canavan said the broader environment the Nationals faced in regional Australian had changed.

“We struggle to get our voice heard … we just have to fight a bit harder,” he said.

“I do think that on a number of fronts we must be more forceful on issues that are threatening the livelihoods of those in regional Australia.”

“We need a bulldog, we need a fighter to fight back against those who want to take away people’s coal jobs, who want to shut down cane farms,” he said. Joyce was “an effective fighter” and “that’s why I’m backing him”.

“I do think a change in direction here will allow us to do that better.” Canavan is a passionate advocate for the coal industry.

In another complication over ministerial standards, Canavan revealed he had just recalled his link to the North Queensland Cowboys, which last year was awarded a $20 million loan by the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility, that sits under his ministry.

He did not believe this was a conflict of interest, saying he did not approve NAIF loans. But a press release from him last year said “Canavan approves $20 million for NQ Cowboys”. Canavan admitted he should have declared the link and he has referred the matter to the Prime Minister’s office.

Queensland National Llew O’Brien flagged he would move for a spill when the 21-member Nationals party room meets.

David Littleproud, the Water Resources Minister, is the frontrunner for the deputy vacancy. He is not contesting the leadership. Frontbencher Darren Chester, a McCormack supporter, said he would not run for deputy.

Late Monday Canavan had not formally resigned from the cabinet: while offering his resignation to McCormack he has to tender it formally to Morrison, which he said he would do Tuesday morning.

– ref. View from The Hill: Barnaby Joyce challenges McCormack with pitch to make Nationals more assertive – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-barnaby-joyce-challenges-mccormack-with-pitch-to-make-nationals-more-assertive-131047

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephanie Kovalchik, Senior Data Scientist, Victoria University

Australian tennis fans were obviously disappointed when Ash Barty lost in the Australian Open semifinals to Sofia Kenin, the young American who went on to win her first Grand Slam title on Saturday. After the early exits of Serena Williams and Naomi Osaka, Barty had been the oddsmakers’ favourite for the title.

In the race for Grand Slam titles in tennis, it can be easy to lose perspective on the broader impact of a player’s performance and how that can help grow the sport in individual countries around the world.

Research shows that when professional players rise to the top of the world rankings and dominate for long stretches, it often coincides with the broader development of tennis talent in their home countries.

This means Australian women’s tennis could be ripe for a boom in the coming years as younger players seek to emulate Barty’s success.

World No. 1s of the past 35 years

The magnitude of what Barty has achieved in the past year is simply remarkable, especially considering the talent at the top of the women’s game globally seems to get stronger with each year.

Barty was a dominant force during her breakout 2019 season. She won 57 of 70 matches and four titles, including her maiden Grand Slam title at the French Open and the WTA Finals in Shenzhen, China.

Read more: The numbers game: how Ash Barty became the world’s best female tennis player

On top of that, she also reached No. 1 in the world, becoming the first Australian woman to achieve the feat since Evonne Goolagong 43 years ago. She will retain the No. 1 ranking after her semifinal showing at Australian Open with a huge point margin over No. 2 Karolina Pliskova.

In the past 35 years, there have been 25 women from 14 countries ranked No. 1. From 1985 to 2005, women’s tennis was dominated by the United States, with seven different American players rising to the top ranking. Belgium produced two No. 1s, while France, Germany, Spain, Russia and Switzerland each had one.

Since 2010, there have been 11 women from 11 countries who have earned the world No. 1 title (owing largely to the ups and downs of Williams’ career).

One impact of the recent wave of diversity at the top of women’s tennis is that, thanks to players like Barty, Osaka and Simona Halep of Romania, there are more role models than ever for aspiring tennis players around the world to look up to.

And history suggests this is a major driver for developing the game in smaller countries where tennis has not traditionally been a hugely popular sport (for example, Belgium and Serbia) and to inspire future generations of players in countries with deeper traditions (the US, Australia and other European countries).

How No. 1s have inspired other players globally

When we look at six nations outside of the US that had one or more No. 1 players between 1990 and 2010 (highlighted in yellow in the chart below), there are several encouraging trends.

First, for all six nations, we can see a surge in women’s players ranked in the top 150 that has either coincided with or followed within a few years of those countries having a top-ranked player.

Read more: Who can break up the ‘Big 3’ monopoly on men’s tennis? Here’s what the numbers say

For example, shortly after Kim Clijsters and Justine Henin became No. 1 in the early-to-mid-2000s, other Belgian players like Yanina Wickmayer and Kirsten Flipkens began to rise in the rankings.

Maria Sharapova’s time at No. 1 in the mid-to-late-2000s overlapped with strong seasons by Russian compatriots Elena Dementieva and Vera Zvonareva and, most notably, Dinara Safina, who also reached No. 1 herself in 2009.

Martina Hingis’ stellar career was also followed by other Swiss players, including current world No. 7 Belinda Bencic, who was not only inspired by Hingis, but was coached by her mother.

We can also see that two recent No. 1s, Angelique Kerber of Germany and Garbine Muguruza of Spain, earned their top rankings almost exactly 15 years from the last No. 1s from their home countries. Kerber followed in the footsteps of Steffi Graf, while Muguruza came after Arantxa Sanchez Vicario.

And in the US, many young African-American women’s players, including 15-year-old Coco Gauff, have cited the success of the Williams sisters as having a direct influence in their decisions to pick up a racket as young girls.

Today, that influence can be measured by the number of African-American women in the top 150: Madison Keys, Sloane Stephens, Gauff, Taylor Townsend, Whitney Osuigwe and Sachia Vickery.

The trickle-down impact of a No. 1

Developing elite talent in sport is a complex process that requires multiple factors – from the talent of players themselves to the support of families, communities, coaches and national sporting bodies – to fall into place.

Although the success of top players is only one part of the equation, it is grounded in a well-known economic concept: the trickle-down theory. When applied to sport, this theory posits that the achievements of the best athletes can trickle down to the grassroots level and motivate more people to take up the sport.

The historical ranking statistics for tennis show a clear trickle-down effect for No. 1 players, especially in nations that have never had or have gone decades without a top player.

Read more: All the racquet: what science tells us about the pros and cons of grunting in tennis

What the statistics can’t tell us is how much the personal character of a world No. 1 impacts the development and growth of young players in her home country.

If we have learned anything about Barty these past two weeks, her game is only part of what makes her unique. Her likeability and the strength of her character in both triumph and defeat also makes her a very marketable star and could serve as another motivational factor for younger players.

Few athletes have likely been as well-positioned to be an enduring inspiration for their country and their sport.

– ref. The No. 1 effect: why Ash Barty’s success could lead to a boom in women’s tennis in Australia – https://theconversation.com/the-no-1-effect-why-ash-bartys-success-could-lead-to-a-boom-in-womens-tennis-in-australia-130866

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Belinda Cuomo, Lecturer and PhD Candidate, Occupational Therapy, Curtin University

It’s your three year old’s birthday and he’s having a party with his day care friends. You watch as the other three year olds ask for more cake and answer questions about what they’re wearing.

But your child doesn’t say much, and what he does say is difficult to understand. He also isn’t really kicking the ball, using the slide or riding his new tricycle as well as the other kids.

You always thought he was quiet or shy. But is there something more happening? Is his behaviour normal? How concerned should you be?

Read more: What’s in a milestone? Understanding your child’s development

Delays in early child development are common. In Australia, more than one in five children starting school are behind where they should be in how they think, communicate, move, socialise or manage their emotions.

Our recently published research looked at how we begin to notice delays in young children – what delays look like and what parents need to notice.

A niggle or an ‘aha’ moment?

Noticing delays in a child’s development is not always an obvious “aha” moment, though it can be.

Big “aha” moments are more likely when there is a sudden change in a child. There could be something specific they should be doing but are not, such as responding to their name. Or there could be unexplained behaviours, like frequent temper tantrums sparked by seemingly nothing that take your child a long time to calm down from.

Read more: ‘No, I don’t wanna… wahhhh!’ A parent’s guide to managing tantrums

But frequently a parent notices gradually – a niggle that grows over time. This can be a gut feeling or intuition that something isn’t quite right. These niggles can be confusing and make you second-guess yourself – “maybe it’s nothing, but …”. Yet these niggles are compelling enough to make you worry.

Our research found both “aha” moments and niggles were often signs of real developmental delays. And generally knowing about child development and comparing your child to others of a similar age led parents to notice something wasn’t quite right.

What’s normal?

Knowing what normal looks like and remembering that normal is a range helps us to begin to identify when a child is developing differently. For example, knowing three-year olds use sentences of three to five words can help to understand their language development.

Read more: Is my child being too clingy and how can I help?

But where do we get this knowledge from? While social media and parenting sites have their place, beware the rabbit hole of conflicting and even judgemental information online.

Stick to sources like the Raising Children Network website, which provides best-practice, well-researched information across different ages and areas of development.

Comparing with other kids

Comparing your child’s development with other children’s can also help. For example, if most other children at the party speak in sentences while your child is using single words and gestures, it is easier to pick up on the difference.

However, rather than relying on signs from a single party, seeing your child with a variety of other children as well as in different settings is best. This helps gain a full picture of your child.

Remember all children develop differently and being a little behind does not necessarily equal delay. But this may flag something to watch.

Play, particularly play with others, is fundamental to child development. It is even enshrined in the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child.

Play also provides a chance to compare your child with others. This could be watching how your child plays with siblings, neighbours or friends’ children at the park or at playgroup.

Now, I’m concerned. What should I do?

So if you would like a little more information or to talk to someone about your child, what can you do? If you are in Australia, maternal and child health services across each state and territory offer a schedule of appointments to check in with your child’s health and development.

For example, Western Australia operates under the Purple Book scheme and provide checks at eight weeks, four months, 12 months, two years, and when your child enters school.

You can also make appointments outside these set times by contacting your local child health centre if you have concerns; there is no need to wait until your child hits one of these ages.

Child health centres also often offer drop-in sessions as well as group sessions for parenting support and advice.

Parent helplines, such as Parentline in Queensland and the Northern Territory, offer tips and opportunities to confidentially talk through any concerns. You can also talk to your GP.

So trust those niggles, watch out for “aha” moments, learn how children develop and embrace opportunities to see your child with others. Even if you are a little uncertain, talk to someone. Sharing your concerns with someone is never a waste of anyone’s time – because maybe it’s nothing, but what if it’s not?

More information about maternal and child health services in your state or territory is available: ACT, NT, NSW, Qld, SA, Tas, Vic and WA.

More information about child development is also available on the Raising Children Network website.

– ref. How do I know if my child is developing normally? – https://theconversation.com/how-do-i-know-if-my-child-is-developing-normally-129137

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Hocking, Postdoctoral fellow, Monash University

Have you ever clapped your hands to get someone’s attention? The resulting “crack!” sound is hard to ignore, rising above and penetrating through any background noise.

Now imagine trying to do it underwater – you would be unlikely to achieve quite the same impact.

Amazingly, new footage released this week in the journal Marine Mammal Science shows breeding grey seals doing just that: they clap at each other to warn off competitors and attract potential mates.

Why is this unusual?

Like their land-living relatives, marine mammals primarily communicate vocally – think of dolphin whistles or the famous song of humpback whales. Grey seals are no exception, and in fact can be surprisingly versatile.

Besides the bizarre “rup” and “rupe” calls these seals normally make in the wild (see the video below), some captive animals have even been trained to perform the Star Wars theme tune!

But vocals are only half the story. Many marine mammals also produce percussive sounds, such as by slapping the water with their flippers or tails. Normally this happens at the surface, and only involves one flipper at a time.

What makes grey seals different is that – like humans – they literally clap their forelimbs together, and they do it entirely underwater.

Read more: Sharp claws helped ancient seals conquer the oceans

The behaviour that took 17 years to film

Recording the claps was far from easy, and took no less than 17 years of scuba diving by “seal diver” and marine biologist Ben Burville.

Ben was no stranger to the clapping sound itself. For years, he had heard it when diving with grey seals during their breeding season. Similar noises had also been detected by researchers using underwater microphones, but had been mistaken for a vocal signal.

It wasn’t until he actually saw a big male clapping together its paw-like flippers that Ben finally identified the true source of the sound. Yet the claps were quick and difficult to film; by the time he pointed his camera, things had usually moved on.

Years passed until finally, in October 2017, Ben caught the behaviour on film while diving near the Farne Islands, UK. A male grey seal performed seven claps right in front of him while his camera was rolling.

Why do grey seals clap?

At first, the discovery might not seem that surprising. After all, seals are famous for performing this behaviour in zoos and aquaria. However, there is a crucial difference: whereas captive animals (usually fur seals or sea lions) have been trained to clap for our entertainment, grey seals do so in the wild and of their own accord.

So why do they do it?

Imagine being in a noisy room, with everyone around you chatting away. Getting attention can be difficult, unless you make a statement. That’s exactly what a clap is: a sharp, loud noise that rises above the background chatter.

Usually it’s males that do the clapping – sometimes by themselves, and sometimes at each other. Depending on the context, the claps may help ward off competitors and/or attract potential mates.

Similar functions underlie display behaviour in many other species. Think of a chest-beating male gorilla, for example. Like seal claps, those chest beats carry two messages: “I am strong, stay away”, and “I am strong, my genes are good.”

Do other marine mammals clap?

The short answer seems to be no, or at least not as far as we know. Clapping seems to be a genuinely novel behaviour that evolved in seals only once. Perhaps larger species such as sea lions are prevented from doing it by increased water resistance.

Of course, it is also possible that some other species also clap, but haven’t done so in front of a camera.

Read more: When mammals took to water they needed a few tricks to eat their underwater prey

Even if clapping were unique to grey seals, it seems the sharp signal it generates is important for many marine mammals. Several dolphins, whales and seals produce similar sounds via tail or flipper slaps, or even gunshot-like vocalisations. The oceans are a noisy place, after all, and it can be important to stand out in a crowd.

What should we learn from this?

Clapping seals show us just how much we still don’t know about the remarkable mammals in our oceans. Clapping seems to be an important social behaviour, hence anything that disturbs it may impact breeding success and survival.

Human noise pollution is known to interfere with other forms of marine mammal communication, including whale song. Loud industrial noises could conceivably disturb grey seals (and other species that rely on acoustic signals) in similar ways.

But if we do not know a behaviour exists, we cannot easily act to protect it.

Understanding the animals around us better can therefore help us to protect them and their way of life.

– ref. Deep impact: grey seals clap underwater to communicate – https://theconversation.com/deep-impact-grey-seals-clap-underwater-to-communicate-129910

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter McCallum, Registrar and Academic Director (Education), University of Sydney

In a series marking the 250th year of his birth, we analyse the brilliance of Ludwig van Beethoven.

Around 1806, Beethoven sought advice on violin fingering from the Italian violinist Felix Radicati in connection with the three great string quartets of his middle period, the so-called “Razumovsky” Quartets, Opus 59.

Radicati impertinently asked whether Beethoven really considered these pieces to be music, to which he airily replied, “Oh, they are not for you, but for a later age!”

And Beethoven was right. His music was for a later age in ways he could scarcely have imagined.

Enduring resonance

He would not have anticipated, for example, that English cricket captain Mike Brearley would whistle the opening cello theme of the first of those very quartets, when walking on to face Australian fast bowlers in 1981.

Or that, as on 1 October 1959, just before the artistic suffocation of the Cultural Revolution, Mao Tse Tung and Nikita Krushchev would listen to the heroic strains of his Egmont Overture to celebrate the tenth anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party, a celebration capped off later that month with a joint East German/Chinese performance of his Ninth Symphony in the newly completed Great Hall of the People in Tiananmen Square.

In the 250 years since his birth, Beethoven’s music has served myth-making agendas both personal and political, cultural and commercial, noble and nefarious.

He has been depicted in countless artworks, in popular culture and provided inspiration for fictional characters in works from Thomas Mann’s Doctor Faustus, and Romain Roland’s Jean Christophe to Anthony Burgess’s A Clockwork Orange.

As French poet and novellist Victor Hugo said, this is music where “the dreamer will recognise his dream, the sailor his storm, Elijah his whirlwind […] and the wolf his forests”.

Powerful and personal

Beyond the mythologising, hagiography and exploitation, the music itself retains a potent power to move listeners in deeply personal ways.

In E. M. Forster’s 1910 novel Howard’s End, Helen listens to the moment in his Fifth Symphony when Beethoven interrupts the exultant finale with a malignant return of the sardonic Scherzo theme — usually a light and jovial musical form. Helen hears in it a confirmation that “the splendour of life might boil over and waste to steam and froth”. That, she concludes, is why you can trust Beethoven when he says other things.

Why do listeners, like Helen, continue to find truth in the music’s stirring energy and transcendence?

Although there are as many answers as there are listeners, it is possible to point to some enduring virtues in his music and work habits that offer a glimpse into the mystery of the artistic process.

Beethoven had a capacity to put forward a memorable, well-shaped, malleable, often open-ended idea that announces itself as a kind of proposition. This can be heard famously in the first four notes of his Fifth Symphony.

One doesn’t need musical education or experience to hear how Beethoven builds from those insistent four notes the ensuing tumultuous clamour and stormy intensity.

The same applies to a comparable four-note knocking motive that grabs the listener’s ear just after the opening idea in the Piano Sonata in F minor, the “Appassionata”.

Lenin claimed to know this sonata inside out, and, though other music frequently got on his nerves, said he could listen to it every day.

Propelled by rhythm

The memorability of Beethoven’s ideas owes much to their rhythmic definition, energy and elasticity. At times his rhythm is impulsive and disruptive as though refusing to adhere to well-behaved phrases and the constraints of convention.

His Third Symphony, the “Eroica”, begins with the simplest of bold affirmative ideas – two emphatic chords.

Yet scarcely has the ensuing theme begun but it is distracted, and Beethoven has to start it twice more before it gains its full stride.

Later in the same movement the opening chords almost grind the music to a halt. Beethoven uses rhythm not just to propel the music but to articulate large-scale form and struggle.

In other works, particularly in his late period (1816 to his death in 1827), he used rhythm to change our experience of time itself, as in the Arietta of his final Piano Sonata, the Sonata in C minor, Opus 111.

A sublimely simple theme is progressively subdivided to reach a peak of jaunty activity anticipating the syncopated rhythms of 20th century jazz, only to break completely to a moment of radical trance-like stasis.

As Milan Kundera points out in The Book of Laughter and Forgetting, it is as though Beethoven is pointing to 17th century philosopher Blaise Pascal’s two infinities – the infinitely large and the infinitely small.

Early in his career, Beethoven found ways of using harmony to give the impression of leaving the expected path to survey a new unexplored vista. He often used this device just before the close (in the Piano Sonata Opus 7, for example).

Listen to the solo violin entry in the central development section (around the 11:02 mark) of the Violin Concerto in D where the soloist returns after a long orchestral tutti, initially repeating the idea she opened with before unexpectedly shifting outwards to an expressive theme in the highest sweet notes of the violin.

More than words

In his book Beethoven Hero Scott Burnham points out this is music that seems to be telling us something though what it is telling us is, as Mendelssohn put it, too exact for words.

It trivialises the music to say, as one of Beethoven’s earliest critics A. B. Marx did, that the opening of the Eroica Symphony depicts Napoleon mounting his steed on the battlefield.

Beethoven had a way of using these resources to convey a narrative of urgent thought, whether intimate or epic.

Beethoven did not arrive at these moments of numinous truth easily. From at least 1798 when he was 28 years old until his death in 1827, he wrote his ideas in sketchbooks, some large for home use (over 30 of these survive in full or in part) and a slightly greater number of handmade books that he carried in his pocket. The magisterial flow of the Eroica Symphony, mentioned above, was worked out over as many as 12 continuity drafts.

Towards the end of his life the process became more intense. Between the completion of the Ninth Symphony in February 1824 and his death in 1827, Beethoven filled at least 1,899 pages of sketches for his five late string quartets and other projects, not counting a further 700 pages of completed scores and copies. This represents over 2,500 densely-packed, often almost illegible pages in less than three years.

Even leaving aside the creative effort involved, two substantial periods of illness in 1825 and 1826/7 and time out for rows with publishers and his nephew Carl (the latter almost ending in tragedy with the nephew’s unsuccessful suicide attempt in 1826), it represents substantial physical work.

Amid his own stormy life, he averaged two and a half pages a day, every single day for 32 months — hieroglyphic postcards for a later age.

– ref. Ahead of his time, Beethoven still inspires – https://theconversation.com/ahead-of-his-time-beethoven-still-inspires-129454

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Richard Di Natale has quit the leadership of the Greens, telling his party room on Monday he will also leave the Senate.

Citing in particular family reason for his shock departure, Di Natale said: “It’s a tough and demanding job and my boys are nine and 11, and I want to be present in their lives. My wife has been a huge support for me in my career and I want to be able to support her in her career.”

He also said he’d had major surgery at the end of last year which “took a bit out of me”.

The shock resignation comes as former deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce announced he would challenge Nationals leader Michael McCormack if there was a move for a leadership spill at Tuesday’s party meeting.

The Greens will elect their new leader on Tuesday morning. The party’s sole lower house member, Adam Bandt, immediately announced he would stand.

Read more: Greens on track for stability, rather than growth, this election

Di Natale was elected to the Senate at the 2010 election and became leader in 2015 after Christine Milne quit. He was hailed as likely to broaden the appeal of the party, potentially picking up more centrist voters and expanding its electoral footprint. That promise has not materialised.

The party maintained its Senate representation of nine in last year’s election, as well as holding Bandt’s seat of Melbourne.

Di Natale said he left the party in good shape, with its second best result at last year’s election. “If we just repeat that result we will elect three new senators and have a shot at the balance of power. I think we’ll do better than that,” he said.

He knew his decision would shock members and supporters but the time was right – for him and for the Greens. “We are bigger than one person.” He did not know what would come next for him, but he would remain involved in Green issues.

He highlighted the Greens’ role in elevating the climate debate. “We Greens put climate action on the agenda at the last election and that was just the beginning. Every election from now on will have the climate emergency front and centre.”

He believed former leaders should not hang around in parliament. He would resign from the Senate when his replacement was chosen. He anticipated that would be about mid-year.

The Nationals are also dealing with leadership changes. Barnaby Joyce, who resigned the party’s leadership amid a furore over his personal life in early 2018 and has long wanted to reclaim the post, told Seven: “If there is a spill then I will put my hand up.” He noted he had always said that if there was a vacancy for the leadership he would stand.

The Nationals have been destabilised by Bridget McKenzie being forced to resign from cabinet for breaching ministerial standards in the sports rorts affair, over failing to declare her memberships of gun organisations. She said on Monday she accepted she should have declared the memberships in a more timely fashion but she did not believe they had constituted a conflict of interest.

Read more: Remembrance of rorts past: why the McKenzie scandal might not count for a hill of beans

The Nationals will elect a new deputy leader to replace McKenzie on Tuesday.

To get a spill for the leader’s position needs only a mover and seconder.

McCormack said: “The fact is there is no vacancy for the leader of the National party. We have a vacancy for the deputy of the National party.”

Victorian National Damian Drum said he did not think Joyce had the numbers, so he did not believe it would come to a vote on McCormack’s position.

Party sources believe McCormack has the support to keep his position, despite considerable internal and external criticism of his performance. But if Joyce ran and got a substantial vote, that would put McCormack under severe pressure. The last thing Scott Morrison wants would be for Joyce to make a comeback.

Water Resources minister David Littleproud, a Queenslander, is considered frontrunner for the deputy leadership. David Gillespie, from NSW, has said he will run for deputy.

– ref. Richard Di Natale quits Greens leadership, as Barnaby Joyce seeks a tilt at Michael McCormack – https://theconversation.com/richard-di-natale-quits-greens-leadership-as-barnaby-joyce-seeks-a-tilt-at-michael-mccormack-131029

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Leanne Wiseman, Professor of Law, Griffith University, Associate Director Australian Centre for Intellectual Property in Agriculture (ACIPA), Griffith University

Australians are buying more and and more gadgets and devices. Our homes and workplaces seemed to be filled with smart phones, drones, Fitbits, internet- connected fridges, air-conditioners that turn off when people leave the room: anything that makes our lives more convenient.

Behind the scenes, of course, there’s a growing pile of discarded, broken devices. The software that makes these devices so appealing also often prevents us accessing a cheap and easy fix.

But as the US and EU experience has shown, Right to Repair legislation – laws that make it easier for consumers, repairers and tinkerers to fix their broken goods – can offer an attractive alternative to the problem of overflowing, dangerous e-waste.

Read more: Design and repair must work together to undo our legacy of waste

Easier to replace than repair

More often than not, broken devices must be sent to the manufacturer for diagnosis before repair can even start. In many cases, it just seems easier and cheaper to replace than repair.

Local repairers often do not have access to either the relevant technologies or the information needed to repair a broken device.

And it’s not just about hand-held gadgets.

As the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has observed:

today’s new cars contain in excess of 10 million lines of computer code — more code than is used to operate the avionics and on-board support systems of modern airliners. New cars are now effectively “computers on wheels” and require sophisticated software to work.

As one mechanic told the ABC:

We could spend up to $300 a month on data, just to be able to fix a certain model of car. It’s not cheap and there’s a lot you still can’t get from the dealers.

The same mechanic said he often worked 12-hour days mostly researching how to fix technical equipment in cars.

The Australian government has said it will work toward a mandatory scheme for the sharing of motor vehicle service and repair information, saying the ACCC will enforce it and apply penalties after a transition period.

Change may be coming, albeit somewhat slowly. In 2018, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission brought an action against Apple for telling consumers their warranty would not be honoured if they took their iPhone to a third-party repairer.

This was found to be a breach of consumer law and Apple was fined A$9 million. The finding sent a strong message to the community that manufacturers should not be controlling the aftermarket to the exclusions of others.

Naturally, consumers are also frustrated by the lack of repair options and more people are beginning to realise the environmental damage of a system that preferences replacement over repair.

Economy-wide change is needed. Australia can look abroad for inspiration.

Read more: Why can’t we fix our own electronic devices?

A global groundswell

Globally, there has been a groundswell of support from motorists, farmers, designers, repairers and environmentalists for a Right to Repair movement.

The US has recognised the right to repair since legislation was passed in 2012 giving motorists access to car spare parts and repair services in Massachusetts. The law had a ripple effect across the US, with at least 20 states now proposing or passing Right to Repair legislation.

The EU has a Right to Repair regime through the EU EcoDesign Directive, which comes into force next year and requires manufacturers to create repairable goods and provide spare parts for up to ten years.

In Australia, we have a number of great repair initiatives including the Bower Reuse and Repair Centre in Sydney, the Victorian Repair Cafe and many passionate repairers. And Australia’s consumer affairs ministers last year promised to consider laws allowing the repair of phones.

More broadly, we need a community-wide dialogue with consumers, motorists, farmers, repairers, manufacturers, designers, legislators and policy makers about how an Australian Right to Repair scheme might look.

As resources grow scarce, recycling options wane and our rubbish dumps overflow, there is no time to lose.

Griffith University is hosting a public seminar on the Right to Repair at their Southbank Campus on Wednesday February 5, 2020. Details can be found here.

– ref. US and EU laws show Australia’s Right to Repair moment is well overdue – https://theconversation.com/us-and-eu-laws-show-australias-right-to-repair-moment-is-well-overdue-127323

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Iain White, Professor of Environmental Planning, University of Waikato

Politicians in many countries around the world claim to be experiencing a “housing crisis”. But how do they define it, who is affected, and what is the cause?

These are critical questions. Exploring them can help us understand why much of the evidence from research is not carried through into political discourse and policy.

In the wake of the growing global “crisification” of housing, our research evaluated political speeches in Hansard connected to the housing crisis in New Zealand over three terms of the centre-right National Party government (2008-17). We sought to better understand how the issue became visible in politics and then trace this through to policy. We found the term “housing crisis” was rarely used before 2013.

Our aim was to provide deeper insights into why the problem appears to be resisting resolution. While the research took place in New Zealand, the findings have wider relevance for other countries grappling with this issue of “housing crisis”.

Read more: Housing policy reset is overdue, and not only in Australia

Tracing the rise of the housing crisis

Crises are truth claims. They are invoked, they define, they blame and, in doing so, they privilege certain ideologies or policy “solutions” over others.

If the problem is seen as due to “red tape”, too much immigration or unfair taxes, then these all require very different interventions. Some responses will be more effective than others. Some may have more in common with long-held political ideology than a body of scientific evidence.

The chart below shows the emergence, frequency and party-oriented nature of housing being framed in terms of a “crisis”.

From being used only two times during the first term of National government (2008-11), the term was used 105 times in the second (2011-14) and 205 times in the third (2014-17). (The lack of use in 2014 appears more related to parliament being distracted by an election year than the profile of the issue.)

You can also see it’s almost exclusively opposition parties, in particular Labour and the Greens, that use the crisis framing. MPs from the ruling National Party used the term only five times, and then mainly in response to previous speakers to resist the charge.

A contest to frame the issue

Turning to the content of debate, the following table provides an overview of the strength and focus of the framing themes used.

Even though the governing party resisted the crisis terminology, a very consistent narrative dominated housing debates. It was that the reason for poor affordability was an inefficient and overly bureaucratic planning system that stifled the release of development land. It was a problem of supply, the reasoning went: more land should logically lead to more houses to meet demand, which should make housing more affordable.

In some ways the subordinate counterframing attempts by opposition parties provide an insight into the complexity of the housing crisis. In contrast, the government framing appears both easier to communicate and “solve”.

The episodic and missing frames are of particular interest as they help demonstrate what perspectives and voices were not represented in any meaningful manner.

Even though the National government did not accept the framing as a crisis, the high profile of the political discourse led to a suite of legislative and policy initiatives. These documents strongly reflect the dominant narrative. For example, the Resource Management Act, the main planning legislation in New Zealand, receives repeated blame for high house prices as part of the justification for measures aimed at increasing the supply of land.

Read more: Three times citizens mobilised to put affordable housing on the political agenda

What does this mean for evidence and policy?

A key finding is that the crisis claim from opposition parties did not just lead to a contest over whether this was correct, or even its meaning. It also opened up a new political space for the ruling party to promote long-standing ideas about the preferred relationship between the state, private sector and market.

Researchers recognise housing as a multifaceted public policy problem and draw upon multiple streams of evidence. However, the political framing of housing as a crisis and its links to policy was much more simple, siloed and ideological. Although wider political discourse did acknowledge the complexity of housing issues, the nature of politics and the balance of power meant the cause was reduced to a simple effective message – poor land supply and an inefficient planning system – which informed the policy responses.

This gap between evidence and politics may also help explain how various urban and environmental crises have become less of a one-off event and more of a modern lived condition that may never be “solved” but rather redistributed politically.

In reality, the various frames show how there is not just a singular “housing crisis”. There may be a supply crisis, a demand crisis, a quality crisis, a distribution crisis, a credit crisis, a rental crisis, and so on. All of these issues differ between local, national and international contexts.

Read more: Ideas of home and ownership in Australia might explain the neglect of renters’ rights

Lastly, if political power and existing ideological perspectives are so central to the framing and response to a crisis, then this raises questions for how researchers can better integrate research into politics and policy. While topics such as liveability, sustainability, density, connectivity, justice and quality are well represented in research, the data show this is not carried through into political discourse. Perhaps by focusing on the reasons for this gap we can better understand policy failure and the role of power and ideology in perpetuating the housing crisis.

– ref. Housing crisis? What crisis? How politicians talk about housing and why it matters – https://theconversation.com/housing-crisis-what-crisis-how-politicians-talk-about-housing-and-why-it-matters-128861

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendan Coates, Program Director, Household Finances, Grattan Institute

A key question for the government’s retirement incomes review is who ultimately pays for compulsory super contributions, especially since they are set to climb from 9.5% of wages to 12% over the next five years.

Legally, they come from employers, on top of wages. But employers’ contributions have to come from somewhere. Compulsory super was introduced in 1992 with the intention they would come out of funds that would otherwise have been paid out as wage increases.

Modelling by the Treasury, Grattan Institute, and the private sector has long assumed that is what has happened.

Read more: Productivity Commission finds super a bad deal. And yes, it comes out of wages

But until now there has been scant empirical evidence about who actually pays, and against the backdrop of chronic low wage growth and the imminent increases, the conventional wisdom has come under attack.

Today’s new Grattan Institute study, No free lunch: higher superannuation means lower wages fills the gap.

In an Australian first, it examines detailed data on 80,000 enterprise bargaining agreements over the three decades of compulsory super and concludes that, on average, 80% of each increase in compulsory super has been taken from what would otherwise have been wage increases.

Increases super comes from wages

In theory, super contributions could come from three sources:

• workers, through lower wage growth

• consumers, through higher prices

• investors, through lower profits.

International studies of similar schemes find that most, if not all, of the cost is borne by workers through lower wage growth.

Our study examined administrative microdata on 80,000 enterprise bargaining agreements filed between 1991 and 2018 sourced from the Workplace Agreements Database maintained by the attorney general’s department.

We compared agreements whose terms spanned leglislated increases in compulsory super with those that did not.

Then we estimated what the wage rise in each agreement ought to have been based on detailed information about the agreement, the employer’s industry, and economic conditions at the time it was negotiated.

Read more: 5 questions about superannuation the government’s new inquiry will need to ask

We were able to see whether there was a systematic difference in wage rises between the agreements that spanned step-up increases in compulsory super and those that did not.

On average 80% of the cost of increased compulsory super contributions was passed on to workers through lower wage rises than would have been expected over the life of those agreements. The long-term impact is likely to have been higher.

Read more: The uncomfortable truth about super: there’s no ‘one-size-fits-all’ contribution

The graph shows the overall finding using data from 1992 to 2018 and also the results from subsets of the including the private or public sectors, big and small firms and the period since 1997.

In each case somewhere between most and all of the cost of super increases was passed through to workers in the form of lower wage increases.

On average, 80% of super increases were at the expense of wages

It isn’t only enterprise agreements

Our study looked only at workers on federally-registered enterprise bargaining agreements, around 30% of the workforce. Other workers are also likely to bear the cost of higher super through lower wages.

The Fair Work Commission – the body which sets award wages – has made the link between super increases and award wages explicit, saying that when super goes up, award wages grow more slowly than they otherwise would.

State enterprise agreements are unlikely to differ much from federal agreements, and workers covered by one-on-one arrangements are likely to experience similar trade-offs.

Future super increases are unlikely to be different

It is unlikely the leglislated future step ups in compulsory super contributions will be different from the earlier ones.

Although wage growth is slower now than in the past, wages are nevertheless – by all measures – growing by more than 2% a year, offering ample room for employers to wind back wage increases in order to fund each of the five scheduled annual step ups of 0.5% in compulsory super contributions that begin on July 1, 2021.

In fact, if workers’ bargaining power has fallen recently – as some suggest – employers might feel they can push even more of the cost of higher super onto workers than in the past.

Our analysis shows previous increases in compulsory super came mainly from wages: they took money that would have been handed to workers as wage increases and handed it to fund managers to hold and invest until those workers retired.

The next set of legislated increases are likely to do the same.

– ref. Think superannuation comes from employers’ pockets? It comes from yours – https://theconversation.com/think-superannuation-comes-from-employers-pockets-it-comes-from-yours-130797

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Darren Paul Fisher, Head of Directing, Department of Film, Screen and Creative Media, Bond University

You’ve seen the Game of Thrones scene with Jon and Daenerys where somehow a Starbucks coffee cup made it into the frame? Or maybe the one in Star Wars where the Stormtrooper misjudges the height of a Death Star doorway and, unnoticed by anyone else, smashes their head?

You may have even noticed bullet holes on the walls before anyone started firing at Jules and Vincent in the apartment scene from Pulp Fiction.

Those moments might have ruined the scenes for you – or perhaps were the only redeeming feature. But the big question everyone wants answered is: whose fault was it?

Action!

On a production crew, these details – officially – are the responsibility of the script supervisor or continuity person.

In the early days of Hollywood they were also referred to as the “script girl” as the role was typically filled by a female staff member.

The primary role of the script supervisor is to ensure continuity between shots, specifically when it comes to hair, makeup, props, wardrobe and the movements of the actors. This role does not exist in the theatre, where the audience sees a live event in order. But a film or television show is usually shot completely out of sequence, and if things don’t match, a scene can quickly become laughable.

Just imagine the simplest of scenes where two characters walk out of a building onto the street. Now consider the street part will be shot a week after the building part (this is commonplace, as the interior is often a studio and the exterior a real location). Everything has to match – clothes, hair, props – otherwise the audience will get distracted wondering why the main actor’s curls are now parted on the opposite side from just (as they experience it) a moment ago.

Constantly moving elements within a scene are particularly difficult to deal with. The clock can be the script supervisor’s kryptonite. I have often thought the ultimate test of any continuity person would be to correctly track a scene where someone sits at a table with a candle, smoking a cigarette as a clock ticks away in the background.

Going off-script

The script supervisor works closely with the director and other departments, keeping track of what actual shots were completed (as opposed to planned), if those takes were good or not (according to the director), the key action of the actors (including, critically, what prop was held in which hand) and which lens was used. They also sometimes time the scenes, to check continuity of pace between takes.

Depending on the production, there can also be more nuanced responsibilities, including tracking the continuity of performances; the script supervisor is well within their rights to inform the director (who may not be aware) the performance in the wide-shot was happy, and therefore won’t match the far more bittersweet close-up. “Sorry, Mr. Day-Lewis, your performance was masterful, but now if you could now just match the medium-shot …”

If an actor decides to improvise a line, the script supervisor tracks the change and informs the director. If the director likes the change, the script supervisor updates the script, informs the actor they need to continue to use the improvised line, and then disseminates this new version of the script to the relevant departments.

It is easy to spot a continuity person on set, as they usually sit with a wide lever-arch file containing the script on their lap, in front of their own monitor, often with a camera around their neck.

It is certainly a job that has been, if not eased, then heavily assisted by the rise of technology. Something like the tracking of costume details used to be done purely by notes and sketches, then by polaroids, and now by smartphones.

The blame game

So, that concussed Stormtrooper and the rogue Starbucks cup were all down to a continuity person not doing their job properly, yes?

Also no.

Or at least, the blame is not all theirs.

Here’s the rub: the script supervisor supports the other departments who are all responsible for their own continuity. Hair, make-up, costume and camera departments all do their own tracking and notetaking, which should then correlate with the script supervisor. It’s a system with inherant redundancy because errors can be so catastrophic.

For Daenerys’ anachronistic coffee to reach the screen, it would have to have been missed by – at the very minimum – every actor, the stand-by props person, the set dressers, the art director, the script supervisor, the camera operator, the director of photography, the director, the assistant editor, the editor and the producers.

Finally, returning to our ultimate test — the scenes where an actor’s cigarette suddenly swaps hands, or a candle seems to “trombone” during the scene by getting alternatively shorter then longer again, or a pesky clock begins at 3pm then ends at 2pm — surely that has to be the script supervisor’s fault?

Again, not necessarily. As viewers, we can sometimes become obsessed with continuity errors – but directors and editors are less obsessed than you might expect.

They are more likely to be led by the quality of an actor’s performance. The actor may have given just the right look at the end of the scene – only it was the right look for the start of the scene. So the director and editor move the shot within the sequence. It’s adds dramatic power, but now the clock is wrong. The poor script supervisor, who did nothing wrong, can cop the blame from colleagues, critics or viewers.

Nowadays, with digital technology, if the filmmakers have the budget, they can change the clock or magically disappear a coffee cup. But they might take the hit, deciding a perfect performance outweighs an inconsistent background element.

Continuity errors are generally not spotted on the first viewing. If you’re watching a film a second (or 95th time) you clearly like it. And if the first time you watch a film you’re looking at the clock and not the action, the production has far bigger problems than continuity.

– ref. How script supervisors keep film continuity – and coffee cups and cigarettes – in check – https://theconversation.com/how-script-supervisors-keep-film-continuity-and-coffee-cups-and-cigarettes-in-check-127911