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October 8, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin. This week the World Health Organisation (WHO) suggested that ten percent of the world’s population may have been infected with Covid19. While my estimates fall well short of this number for the world as a whole, they certainly show many countries with higher infection rates to date than ten percent. The ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis: Covid-19 Case Estimates" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/10/08/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid-19-case-estimates/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis: Covid-19 Case Estimates">Read more</a>
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September 25, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin. The most recent TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll felt about right: Labour/Green on 54% and National/Act on 38% of decided voters. But I sense that Labour is losing momentum. What needs to happen to make Judith Collins the Prime Minister in October? National/Act need just five percentage points more, and Green to ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – The 2020 New Zealand Election is Not a Foregone Conclusion" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/09/25/keith-rankin-analysis-the-2020-new-zealand-election-is-not-a-foregone-conclusion/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – The 2020 New Zealand Election is Not a Foregone Conclusion">Read more</a>
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September 18, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin. In mid-September, new cases of Covid19 are higher than they have ever been. (See here for previous weekly charts, which included the ‘little’ countries.) While this still-rising incidence is partly due to more testing, it is also due to significant new outbreaks in the Levant (Israel, Palestine, Lebanon) and in Europe. ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid-19 in mid-September: New Cases, Worst Cases" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/09/18/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid-19-in-mid-september-new-cases-worst-cases/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid-19 in mid-September: New Cases, Worst Cases">Read more</a>
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September 18, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Definition ‘Balance sheet recession’ is an innocuous name for a very big economic event. It represents a particular kind of contraction of a country’s economy – or of the global economy – in which one of the most important laws of ‘financial economics’ is practically disabled; that is the economic law ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Balance Sheet Recessions, and the Government Debt Fix" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/09/18/keith-rankin-analysis-balance-sheet-recessions-and-the-government-debt-fix/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Balance Sheet Recessions, and the Government Debt Fix">Read more</a>
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September 11, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin. The first chart shows the growth of Covid19 in Australia using an arithmetic scale. This means the axis labels on the left increase by a given number of cases; in this chart it is increments of 5,000 cases per 10 million people. Australia is currently sitting on just over 10,000 cases ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid-19: Australia to Scale" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/09/11/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid-19-australia-to-scale/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid-19: Australia to Scale">Read more</a>
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September 10, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Before the 1950s My MA thesis was about labour supply in New Zealand and Australia during the 1920s and 1930s, with particular reference to the 1930s’ ‘Great Depression’. The central finding related to the workings of whanau as an economic unit, and how the loss of income to the ‘family breadwinner’ – ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – The Added-Worker Effect, in Economic Hard Times" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/09/10/keith-rankin-analysis-the-added-worker-effect-in-economic-hard-times/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – The Added-Worker Effect, in Economic Hard Times">Read more</a>
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September 4, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Since its first death (in China) in January, 873 thousand people worldwide have died from Covid19. The chart shows the population-adjusted death tolls for the most-affected countries (excluding countries with less than 300,000 people. (San Marino – with 34,000 people – actually has the highest death rate.) In recent days, Peru ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid-19: Countries with most Deaths and Cases to date" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/09/04/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid-19-countries-with-most-deaths-and-cases-to-date/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid-19: Countries with most Deaths and Cases to date">Read more</a>
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September 2, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin. In practice, democratic political reforms are usually incremental, though typically seen as part of a process leading to wider and more embedded improvement. Reforms are ‘evolutionary’ – indeed, in a technical sense – in that they improve the ‘fitness’ of democratic society. Unlike biological evolution, which is a fully blind process, ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Extending Democracy; a Path-Dependent Process" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/09/02/keith-rankin-analysis-extending-democracy-a-path-dependent-process/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Extending Democracy; a Path-Dependent Process">Read more</a>
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August 28, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Global variation These two charts show Covid19 incidence in the world as a whole, in an American country (USA), an Asian country (South Korea), and New Zealand. The first chart shows cumulative cases, with the United States being about six times worse (close to an order of magnitude, which usually means ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19 towards the end of August 2020" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/08/28/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid19-towards-the-end-of-august-2020/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19 towards the end of August 2020">Read more</a>
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August 27, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Macroeconomic Policy Macroeconomic policy is largely the art or science of the governance of economic imbalance. Some of the words that indicate imbalance are ‘recession’, ‘inflation’, ‘deflation’ and ‘contraction’. Another word, ‘stagflation’, represents a mix of recession and inflation. (Note that ‘inflation’ here indicates an unsustainable and ongoing process of price ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – The Two Policy Silos: Reserve Bank and Treasury" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/08/27/keith-rankin-analysis-the-two-policy-silos-reserve-bank-and-treasury/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – The Two Policy Silos: Reserve Bank and Treasury">Read more</a>
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August 21, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin. This week’s chart shows the most current Covid19 outbreaks, including all the little countries. As in March 2020, some of these are the worst affected. It also gives lie to the claim that New Zealand is advantaged by being an island country. In the gold and silver position are Aruba and ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: Covid-19 in the Peak of the Northern Hemisphere Tourist Season" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/08/21/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid19-covid-19-in-the-peak-of-the-northern-hemisphere-tourist-season/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: Covid-19 in the Peak of the Northern Hemisphere Tourist Season">Read more</a>
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August 20, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Early Identification and Action We are now learning, from Covid19, one thing above all else. With epidemics, it is early identification and action that matters. When our Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, says that New Zealand’s government approach is to “go hard and go early”, she is only partly correct. What matters ... <a title="Keith Rankin – Epidemic Costs and Responses: Coronavirus and Tuberculosis" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/08/20/keith-rankin-epidemic-costs-and-responses-coronavirus-and-tuberculosis/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin – Epidemic Costs and Responses: Coronavirus and Tuberculosis">Read more</a>
