The coronavirus and its attendant emergency measures are set to deliver a profound shock to the residential tenancy market.
How it will work out is anybody’s guess, but it is looking like a crisis.
Banks and governments have acted quickly.
The major banks are deferring mortgage payments for up to six months for customers whose income is hit by the coronavirus.
NSW and Tasmania have introduced bills that will make it difficult for landlords to evict tenants or terminate leases during the crisis.
The rushed laws are designed to prevent a raft of evictions and a spike in homelessness, but they raise almost as many questions as they answer.
Rent postponed rather than forgiven
Both laws put power in the hands of the minister, giving that person the power to make regulations during the coronavirus pandemic. Tasmania’s more closely prescribes what the minister can do.
And both are temporary. The NSW act has effect for six months and the Tasmanian bill for 120 days, although it can be extended by 90 days.
Neither law excuses tenants from their liability to pay rent. They merely prevent evictions during the emergency period.
In effect they say that although tenants can stay, their landlords can later sue them for arrears.
While on paper, this suggests landlords will get their money, in practice they might not, and some will be tempted to issue notices of termination ahead of the minister taking action.
The minister’s regulations would most likely be prospective, meaning landlords would seem to be able to get away with it. But whether a tribunal would enforce the notices is another question.
The Tasmanian bill only permits landlords to apply for terminations where the landlord is in hardship. The NSW law has less detail, but would probably do the same.
Given there are tough and uncertain times ahead, a better approach than rushed laws might be a pragmatic one of exhorting both landlords and tenants to take the legitimate interests of each other into account.
If laws are to be made, there ought to be extensive consultation.
Even in the coronavirus pandemic this is doable and a good idea.
In three short months, more than half a million cases of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, have been reported worldwide.
The US now has the highest number of COVID-19 cases worldwide and Italy has reported more than twice as many COVID-19 related deaths as China. Deaths from COVID-19 in Spain have surpassed China in recent days, and it won’t be long before France and the US follow suit. COVID-19 has well and truly taken hold in the West.
While most people are being encouraged (or ordered) to stay at home to reduce the spread of COVID-19, this is not an option for frontline healthcare workers.
Healthcare workers have been infected at an alarming rate
In countries whose health infrastructure has been overwhelmed by the sheer volume of severe COVID-19 cases, healthcare workers have been infected at an alarming rate.
In Italy, more than 6,000 healthcare workers have been infected, making up 9% of the total COVID infections. In Spain, 17% of female COVID-19 cases are healthcare workers (12% of all COVID-19 cases are healthcare workers). More than 2,000 healthcare workers in China had laboratory confirmed COVID-19, with 88% occurring in the worst affected Hubei province.
In Australia, COVID-19 patients are cared for in single rooms where available. However, soon it will be necessary to care for COVID-19 patients in wards and ICUs alongside other COVID-19 patients – known as “cohorting” – as a patient with COVID-19 cannot catch the same disease from another patient sharing their ward.
COVID-19 is transmitted primarily by virus-containing droplets that are expelled when an infectious person sneezes, coughs or talks, contaminating others in close face-to-face proximity and nearby surfaces. This underlies the general advice to stay more than 1.5 metres away from others, practice good cough etiquette and hand hygiene, and avoid touching your face with your hands.
Don’t hoard or panic-buy masks and other personal protective equipment.AAP/EPA/JUSTIN LANE
The number of masks, goggles, gloves and gowns we’ll need is staggering
Healthcare workers use personal protective equipment (PPE) – masks, goggles, gloves and gowns – and clean surfaces to prevent transmission in hospital.
Some procedures that are required when caring for critically ill patients can generate smaller virus-containing particles called aerosols, which can be inhaled.
In circumstances where aerosols could be generated, PPE requirements include use of a respirator mask (also known as a P2 or N95 mask) and a negative room pressure, where a slight vacuum is created to prevent contaminated air escaping the room.
The volume of PPE required to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic is staggering.
The WHO has estimated frontline healthcare workers will require at least 89 million masks, 30 million gowns, 1.6 million goggles, 76 million gloves, and 2.9 million litres of hand sanitiser every month during the global COVID-19 response.
Hoarding and misuse of masks puts healthcare workers at risk
The WHO has also noted panic buying, hoarding and misuse of PPE are putting lives at risk from COVID-19 and other infectious diseases.
Healthcare workers are most at risk if they don’t use appropriate PPE when caring for a COVID-19 patient, such as before the COVID-19 infection has been recognised. This is how a number of unlucky Australian healthcare workers have already been infected with COVID-19 at work, including four from the Werribee Mercy Hospital in Melbourne’s outer west.
Early recognition of potential COVID-19 cases, and instituting precautions including isolation and use of PPE, will protect healthcare workers. Routine use of surgical masks in high-risk clinical settings such as emergency departments, ICUs and COVID-19 screening clinics is now recommended in many places.
PPE supplies in many countries have reportedly been exhausted, forcing healthcare workers to care for COVID-19 patients without adequate protection. Inappropriate and irrational use of PPE, including use of masks in situations where there is no risk of droplet or airborne transmission, accelerate consumption of a finite PPE supply.
The urgent work of securing more PPE
The federal, state and territory governments are working hard to secure enough PPE to prevent this scenario in Australia, including boosting domestic production and manufacturing capacity. Local industry has stepped up with companies previously making other products now making hand hygiene products and masks.
This is urgent work because it’s likely a rapid surge in COVID-19 cases would consume current PPE supplies quickly.
Crisis strategies being employed internationally to deal with mask shortages include prolonged use, re-use by a single healthcare worker, and use beyond the manufacturer designated shelf life, although these are not standard practice. Work is also taking place around sterilisation of masks for re-use by health care workers, which again is not standard practice.
Healthcare workers are also at risk if PPE is used incorrectly, due to inadequate training, inattention, or fatigue. Training healthcare workers in correct use of PPE is a critical part of our emergency response.
Like everyone else, healthcare workers are at risk outside work. In China, outside Hubei, the majority of healthcare workers’ infections could be traced to a confirmed COVID-19 case in the household. As community transmission of COVID-19 becomes more widespread in Australia, more healthcare workers will be infected at home and in the community.
In several countries, military personnel are helping source and distribute PPE.AAP/DPA/Jonas Güttler
When healthcare workers can’t work
It’s vital the healthcare workforce is maintained for the duration of the pandemic. Perversely, some of the actions taken to prevent COVID-19 transmission might result in healthcare workers’ workplace absenteeism. Often healthcare workers would work through a mild upper respiratory tract infection, but with the current heightened awareness they might not be doing this. All healthcare workers are being encouraged to present for testing if they have fever or acute respiratory symptoms such as sore throat, cough and difficulty breathing. They are usually unable to return to work until a negative COVID-19 test result is received and symptoms have resolved. This can take several days.
If a healthcare worker is exposed to a COVID-19 case when not wearing PPE (meaning they spend more than 15 minutes face-to-face or more than two hours in the same room as a case), they will be classed as a close contact and will be home-quarantined and unable to work for 14 days after they were exposed.
We must do everything we can to protect and support healthcare workers throughout this pandemic.AAP/DAVID MARIUZ
And carer responsibilities – either for someone unwell with COVID-19 or for children unable to attend childcare or school due to closures – will keep many healthcare workers away from work.
In the current climate, healthcare workers have been described as “every country’s most valuable resource.” Governments, employers and the public need to do everything they can to protect and support healthcare workers throughout this pandemic.
A 43-year-old woman has reportedly died due to the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic in Indonesian-administered West Papua province.
It is the first recorded death from Covid-19 in the Papua region, and adds to fears that a looming surge in cases could overwhelm the health system on both sides of New Guinea.
The death was recorded in Sorong, the western most city of New Guinea island.
Tabloid Jubi reports the death was confirmed by West Papua’s Task Force Covid-19.
The victim had been a patient at a hospital in Sorong city, where another five patients remained under supervision for suspected coronavirus infection.
– Partner –
West Papua’s provincial administration has not yet declared emergency measures to close access for travellers to the province and restrict public movements like in neighbouring Papua province.
Papua’s covid response unit confirmed seven cases of covid as of Thursday, as the provincial government this week closed entry of travellers into the province both through sea and air travel.
Restricted daily activities Papua has also restricted daily activities in public to eight hours, from 6am to 2pm. Large gatherings, including for religious worship, have also been restricted.
The death in Sorong City is a concern not just for all of Indonesia’s Papua region, but also in the neighbouring independent country of Papua New Guinea whose 800 km border with Indonesia is porous, making it difficult to control movement back and forth between the two sides.
The official land border access point between the two countries has been closed for two months, as PNG’s government seeks to protect its under-resourced health system from the chaos that Covid-19 threatens.
But the governor of PNG’s West Sepik province, Tony Wouwou, said it was nearly impossible to stop people slipping across the border by bush or sea.
PNG’s government this week declared a 14-day state of emergency, with restrictions on travel and closure of all schools and non-essential businesses.
Lacking testing kits and a general capacity to deal with an outbreak, PNG’s government is working closely with the World Health Organisation (WHO) to establish isolation facilities where covid cases would be taken to.
So far, PNG has confirmed only one case of Covid-19 in the country, a 45-year old mine worker who flew to Morobe province via Port Moresby after travelling through Singapore from Europe.
Transferred to Australia The man has since been transferred home to Australia, while PNG health officials conducted contact tracing and tests of people the man had been in contact with – so far all tests have come back negative.
Back on the western side of the island, Papua province’s government, has been urging people to stay at home as much as possible. By and large the public in the Papuan capital, Jayapura are adhering to this call.
Jayapura’s streets are noticeably quiet today, as is Sentani airport which along with other ports in Papua was still receiving transportation of goods into the province, at a time when distribution of certain supplies was more vital than ever.
A member of Papua’s Covid-19 response team, Silwanus Sumule, told The Jakarta Post that a lack of necessary medical equipment, including rapid testing kits to examine swab samples from suspected patients, was a concern for the province.
Meanwhile, hundreds of people are being monitored for coronavirus symptoms in Papua.
This article is republished by the Pacific Media Centre under a partnership agreement with RNZ.
If you havesymptomsof the coronavirus, call the NZ Covid-19 Healthline on 0800 358 5453 (+64 9 358 5453 for international SIMs) or call your GP – don’t show up at a medical centre.
Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chief-of-staff General Felimon Santos Jr has tested positive for the Covid-19 novel coronavirus.
Defence Secretary Delfin Lorenzana shared the information today with reporters covering defence issues.
General Santos said yesterday that he was on home quarantine after coming into contact with another senior AFP officer who later tested positive for the new virus.
Secretary Lorenzana said he had been in close proximity twice with Santos – on March 21 and 22 – so he was putting himself on self-quarantine.
As coronavirus continues to affect all aspects of life, law enforcement agencies are playing a more pivotal role in enforcing new health and social regulations while ensuring society continues to function in a civil manner.
So why is law enforcement important in our battle against COVID-19, and what role will it play?
Police help contain the virus
Several Australian police services have set up dedicated resources to assist in containing the virus. These include major incident rooms and operations and specific new taskforces.
Victoria has established a 500-strong contingent to compel the closure of all but essential services. As well as the shutdown measures, police and authorised officers will be enforcing mandatory self-isolation periods for anyone entering Victoria from overseas. Under Victoria’s state of emergency, breaking quarantine conditions carries fines of up to A$20,000 for individuals and nearly A$100,000 for businesses.
NSW police can impose on-the-spot fines to enforce social distancing.
In New South Wales, police have been required to limit large gatherings in public and restrict access to beaches, removing swimmers and surfers where necessary.
The state government this week granted police enhanced powers to enforce public health orders relating to COVID-19. This includes the power to arrest people breaching their quarantine. Police will be able to compel suspected COVID-19 cases to remain in isolation. The bill will:
allow a police officer to arrest a person who the officer reasonably suspects of contravening a public health order in relation to COVID-19 and returning the person to their usual place of residence or their place of detention.
NSW Police at Bondi Pavilion after state officials closed the beach.MATRIXPICTURES.COM.AU
In conducting similar checks, Victoria Police discovered seven people were not self-isolating as required during spot checks this week.
Such enforcement activity brings with it a unique set of problems. Reports this week indicated up to 200 Victorian police staff are already in quarantine. Concerns were raised about a lack of protective equipment for officers. The powerful Police Association wants a state of disaster declared to free up police to act with greater efficiency and additional powers.
In Queensland, police recruits have been fast-tracked through the academy to provide extra personnel. In addition, Operation Sierra Linnet was launched, a multi-agency taskforce that will ensure compliance with restrictions for all pubs, registered and licensed clubs, gyms, indoor sporting venues, casinos and night clubs.
From midnight Wednesday this week Queensland police have been harnessing their random roadside breath-testing skills to curtail non-approved border crossings.
What impact might coronavirus have on crime?
While police are being asked to extend their range of duties into our everyday activities, in other areas they are pulling back from traditional roles. For example, Queensland police have stopped static random breath test sites because of coronavirus fears.
It is probable police will respond to essential call-outs only, as has happened in some other countries. Even then response times might be longer than before.
We should not be concerned that fewer uniformed police will have an impact on public safety – it is common for police to exercise largely peacekeeping functions. This was highlighted in the Kansas City Patrol Experiment in the 1970s, which found formal police patrols did not impact on crime rates or community fear of crime.
As a consequence of the virus, we have seen criminal elements attempt to take advantage of emerging markets. In the UK, police arrested men who had allegedly stolen toilet paper and hand wash. In Sydney, two men threatened staff with a knife while trying to steal toilet paper.
The strain on our social cohesion is showing, with fights erupting between shoppers as they try to obtain items now in short supply.
In response, the prime minister this week announced his government was creating a new offence to target people hoarding essential goods in an effort to prevent price gouging and exports of products needed to reduce the spread of coronavirus. He said:
These measures will help prevent individuals purchasing goods including face masks, hand sanitiser and vital medicines and either reselling them at significant mark-ups or exporting them overseas in bulk, which prevents these goods from reaching people who need them in Australia.
Trying to predict crime transformations due to coronavirus is difficult. It is likely there will be surges in some crime categories and reductions in others due to conditions created by the crisis.
“Break and enter” offences in private dwellings will probably decline under a widespread lockdown that keeps people in their homes. Alcohol-fuelled violence in public spaces is certain to drop significantly with the closures of pubs, clubs, casinos and restaurants. However, domestic violence incidents are predicted to rise over time, with interpersonal tensions in restricted living arrangements.
Given the uncertainty and the ever-changing situation facing us all, policing needs to be agile and flexible in its response to the needs of society and the demands of governments.
Our law enforcement agencies will perform a critical role in combating the virus and ensuring public safety.
Australia - exponential growth. Chart by Keith Rankin.
Analysis by Keith Rankin
Australia – exponential growth. Chart by Keith Rankin.Canada – exponential growth. Chart by Keith Rankin.New Zealand – exponential growth. Chart by Keith Rankin.
Australian cases have been on an exponent growth path since late February, with no remission yet in sight. The good news is that infection rates remain well below western European levels. The bad news is that death rates – hitherto very low – are accelerating. Indeed Victoria, running with a similar case rate to New Zealand, has just had its first few deaths.
Canada’s case incidence is very similar to that of Australia, though its deaths are twice as high. This suggests that the actual incidence of Covid-19 in Canada may be twice as high as in Australia, albeit on a similar growth path.
New Zealand has been on a steeper growth path than Australia this last week, though it is a day behind in population‑adjusted cases. New Zealand will most likely settle into a similar pace of growth as Australia and Canada over the next week, at similar actual infection rates as Australia.
All three countries are above-average in cases than the world as a whole. Australia and Canada are above average for death rates, Australia only slightly so.
The world’s case growth rate is slow because the developing countries are either ahead of (China) or behind Europe and North America. My sense is that the world’s growth curve will persist well after developing countries’ case incidences fall. I have some confidence that Asia and Africa will end up with much lower rates of infection than Europe. I am much less confident about Latin America.
Borders, beaches, pubs and churches are closed, large events are cancelled, and travellers are subject to 14 days’ isolation – all at significant cost to taxpayers and the economy. But could telecommunications technology offer a more targeted approach to controlling the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus?
One possibility is to use location history data from the mobile phones of confirmed cases, to help track and trace the spread of infection.
Some people can be contagious without knowing, either because they have not yet developed symptoms, or because their symptoms are mild. These individuals cannot be identified until they become sufficiently unwell to seek medical assistance. Finding them more quickly could help curb the spread of the disease.
This suggestion clearly raises complex privacy issues.
All mobile service providers in Australia are required to hold two years of data relating to the use of each mobile phone on their network, including location information.
For anyone who tests positive with COVID-19, this data could be used to list every location where they (or, more accurately, their phone) had been over the preceding few weeks. Using that list, it would then be possible to identify every phone that had been in close proximity to the person’s phone during that time. The owners of those phones could then be tested, even though they may not necessarily have developed symptoms or suspected that they had come into contact with the coronavirus.
The government could do this in a systematic way. It could assemble everyone’s location history into a single, searchable database that could then be cross-referenced against the locations of known clusters of infection. This would allow contact tracing throughout the entire population, creating a more proactive way to track down suspected cases.
The privacy problem
You may well ask: do we want the government to assemble a searchable database showing the locations of almost every person over 16 in Australia over the past month?
Some people will undoubtedly find it a confronting prospect to be contacted by the government and told that surveillance analysis suggests they need to be isolated or tested. Others will be concerned that such a database, or the broad surveillance capability that underpins it, could be used to intrude on our privacy in other ways.
Several countries are already using mobile phone data in the fight against the coronavirus. The UK government is reportedly in talks with major mobile phone operators to use location data to analyse the outbreak’s spread.
India, Hong Kong, Israel, Austria, Belgium, Germany are also among the list of countries taking advantage of mobile data to tackle the pandemic.
The Singapore government has launched an app called Trace Together, which allows mobile users to voluntarily share their location data. Iran’s leaders have been accused of being rather less transparent, amid reports that its coronavirus “diagnosis” app also logs people’s whereabouts.
Is it legal anyway?
We may well take the view that the privacy risks are justified in the circumstances. But does the Australian government actually have the power to use our data for this purpose?
The Telecommunications Act requires carriers to keep telecommunications data secure, but also allows federal, state and territory governments to request access to it for purposes including law enforcement, national security, and protecting public revenue.
Being infected with COVID-19 is not a crime, and while a pandemic is arguably a threat to national security, it is not specifically listed under the Act. Limiting the outbreak would undoubtedly benefit public revenue, but clearly the primary intent of contact tracing is as a public health measure.
There is another law that could also compel mobile carriers to hand over users’ data. During a “human biosecurity emergency period”, the Biosecurity Act 2015 allows the federal health minister to take any action necessary to prevent or control the “emergence, establishment or spread” of the declared emergency disease. A human biosecurity emergency period was declared on Sunday 23 March.
In recent years there has been a great deal of debate over the use of telecommunications data for surveillance purposes. The introduction of the mandatory data retention regime was contentious, as was the broad power granted to multiple agencies to access the data for law enforcement.
One reason for the controversy was the relatively low threshold for use of these laws: authorities could access data relating to any suspected offence punishable by three years or more in prison.
Australia is now facing a crisis that is orders of magnitude more serious. Many Australians would be willing to see their information used in this way if it saves lives, limits the economic impact, and impedes the spread of COVID-19.
The Commonwealth has the legal power to do it, the security and privacy issues can be managed, and the benefits may be significant.
Tonight, for the first time in its 12-year history, my weekly boardgame group will meet online, instead of our regular weekly in-person sessions. Tomorrow night, a planned dinner with friends has been downgraded to sharing wine and cheese over Skype, something we are referring to as “facewine”.
COVID-19 isolation is bringing out the bad puns and forcing everyone to find new ways to socialise, organise and actualise.
In some ways, we have never been more ready for physical isolation. Tools such as Zoom, Skype, Discord, Google hangouts and the myriad messenger apps mean that we already have the tools to stay “in touch”, even when actual touching is out of the question. But what happens when we meet in real life (IRL) is far more complex than information transmission. Given we are all bound to do our communicating online for a while, it’s worth revisiting some of the challenges this poses.
Access
One of the first principles of good communication is that everyone ought to be able to participate.
In some ways technology makes being a participant easier – there are no traffic or parking hassles to deal with. However there is still a digital divide, not only between those who have NBN fibre to the home and those that do not, but also between those who understand how to use software and hardware and those that do not. Many people may need a lot of support to deal with passwords and unstable connections on older model “smartphones”.
Solution: Most people these days can get online but it is a mistake to assume this is simple for all, and it is important to offer support and help when setting up meetings. Distribute guides and tips to your group well before you are due to meet and prompt them to make sure they can use the tech beforehand.
Nonverbal cues
Once online there’s likely to be more interruptions and awkward silences than you’d find in a real life conversation. It’s also more difficult to pick up conversational nuances and humour.
These problems arise because we are not as aware of each others nonverbal cues over video or audio link as we are in person. Nonverbal cues or paralanguage to make up more than half our communication. While a committed participant can pick up more body language, secondary sound and facial expression than a disinterested one, there is still a lot that is missed (light, position, relationality, smell and tone). In person, a sharp intake of breath might signal the speaker wants to say something. A shift in posture might indicate interest.
Similarly, cues are unlikely to be noticed by the whole group simultaneously and this disrupts the flow of conversation, particularly for novices who may find the experience profoundly unsettling.
Solution: In the first instance, laugh at the problems, it’s part of the process and you’ll figure out new conversational patterns as you go. Emoticons, memes and emojis are digital tools devised precisely to overcome the lack of nuance in verbal communication. It can be useful to master a few symbols to overcome the lack of expressive engagement, and emoticons are also a great way of engaging in what is being said verbally without really interrupting.
Group dynamics
Digital platforms are not great at facilitating conversational “breakouts” where large groups spontaneously separate into smaller groups holding different conversations at the same time. Unlike physical space, speakers are stuck in a fixed position relative to each other. While many platforms allow you to facilitate break out conversations, there is no polite or spur of the moment way to coordinate them unless you commit to them as a group.
Solution: Try to remain focussed on group issues and commit to catching up one-on-one at other times. Think about the many affordances of the technology, which can allow you to do more as a group. If you are talking about a wine, screen share some images of the vineyard or region it comes from; if you’re meeting for a book club maybe try to pre-arrange a Skype call with the author you are discussing, or a critic. Our games group will make the most of this by arranging an online session with old members who moved across the country years ago, something our traditional “in-person” games night did not allow.
Overall there is a lot we can’t share online (and some stuff we shouldn’t) so we have to make more of an effort to share what we need to. It is particularly important to take extra care to be a great listener.
Encourage engagement, ask questions and seek to really understand each other; be extra forgiving of frustrations and disagreements. Remember that communication is not just about transmitting information, it is about sharing experiences.
The 2020 Coronavirus Pandemic has all the visible hallmarks of a Malthusian pestilence, a necessary positive check visited upon an over‑abundant humanity. Indeed, that is a likely future interpretation of this event. It’s an important perspective which should be treated with both understanding and caution.
Malthusian thinking is central to classical economics, and today thrives within growth-sceptical derivatives of classical economics, including the assumptions of the Extinction Rebellion movement.
Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus was one of the founders of classical economics. In 1798 he published the first edition of An Essay on the Principle of Population. The underlying idea is that natural population growth is exponential; that is, it increases naturally in a multiplicative way (eg by multiplying by a growth factor of 1.01 or 1.02 every year). On the other hand, the growth of the food supply is additive, constrained by diminishing returns. Diminishing returns can be understood as – as agricultural land expands – the newly‑farmed land is generally inferior to that already being farmed; this is because we naturally choose to farm the best land first.
Malthus drew two main conclusions. The first conclusion was that population was kept in check by certain positive checks; namely famine, disease (‘pestilence’) and war. The second was that, whenever these checks were not in operation, population growth would ensure that a growing supply of labour would keep wages at absolute subsistence levels. Indeed, anything that raised the living standards of the poor would be eroded by population growth. For Malthus in 1798, life for the masses was a somewhat futile competitive struggle. Malthus’ essay was the principal inspiration for Charles Darwin’s theory of competitive selection.
In subsequent editions, Malthus modified his theory of population to include preventative checks. These were basically decisions to limit the birth rate, by slowing population growth, that could allow living standards to increase over time. This part of Malthus’ writing is less well‑known; hence when people use the word Malthusian, they generally refer to the operation of the positive (death) checks on population growth.
Economics became known as the dismal science, thanks to the centrality of Malthusian concepts to classical political economy.
Historical examples
Probably the most‑cited example of a preventative check is the ‘Black Death’ that ravaged late‑Medieval Europe in waves of bubonic and pneumonic plague from the mid‑14th century. The population of western Europe may have fallen by as much as 40 percent in mid‑14th century, and remained in check (through plague) for 150 years after that. In previous centuries population had grown comparatively quickly, in part due to warmer weather than usual for a few centuries. The warm spell turned in the early 14th century, leaving western Europe dangerously overpopulated in the 1340s. (Eastern Europe had received its population trauma a century earlier, in the form of the Mongol invasions from Asia.) The Black Death cut through with such ‘efficiency’ that Europe became underpopulated, creating unusual conditions favouring less inequality, and productivity growth. Capitalism as we know it was an outcome of 15th century conditions in Europe.
Less well known is the ‘early modern’ (seventeenth century) French example. Today the population density of France is 105 people per square kilometre, compared to 280 in Great Britain. Around 1600, the population density of France was substantially greater than in the UK. (Today the populations of France and Great Britain are similar. In 1600, France had four times as many people as Great Britain.)
France was beset by famines in the 17th century. In the 18th century, France was the first European country to widely practice birth control. In addition to the use of contraceptives, delayed marriage was a widely used method of fertility restraint in western Europe. The comparatively low population density of France today arose from both positive and preventative Malthusian checks.
Other Malthusian events included the 1840s’ potato famines (most widely attributed to Ireland). And the biggest one of all, China’s 1850s’ Taiping Rebellion. Malthusian pressures most likely prompted the ongoing voyaging of New Zealand’s Polynesian forebears as islands became too small for their growing populations. Likewise, the initial British settlement of New Zealand reflected Malthusian conditions in the United Kingdom of the 1830s.
Also, I would argue that World War 1 was a Malthusian event – with too many unsustainably large families in much of greater Europe (although not in France, one of the main venues of that war).
Erosion of the Malthusian Worldview
Malthus’ principle was good mathematics but bad futurology. The first half of the 19th century was indeed a Malthusian epoch. The growth of Methodism reflected this, as did ventures such as the settlement in New Zealand by EG Wakefield’s New Zealand Company, and the Free Church of Scotland. (The best known Malthusian-inspired preacher in Scotland was Thomas Chalmers, after whom Port Chalmers was named.)
Two simultaneous ‘one-off’ factors enabled the European world to escape the clutches of Malthusian positive checks – the ‘availability’ of new lands in the ‘new world’ and the rapid harnessing of fossil fuels in a process known as the Industrial Revolution. In the second half of the 19th century, the global food supply increased much faster than the rapidly growing European population.
Further, the breathing space given to us by these opportunities enabled humankind to develop preventative checks without realising that that was what we were doing. By 1880 we had developed ideas of cultural subsistence that represented far higher living standards than absolute subsistence, and we started developing institutions to support higher living standards for the masses. Further, the systems of mass production associated with the ‘second industrial revolution’ depended critically on egalitarian patterns of spending. Mass production required mass consumption; high populations, yes, but most importantly, high populations with the ability to spend. The 20th century was made possible by the extension of France’s 18th century demographic revolution into much of the wider world. That extension depended critically on the evolution of ‘welfare states’.
Return of the Malthusian Worldview
In the late 1960s Malthusianism returned. The best known neo‑Malthusian writings were ‘The Tragedy of the Commons’ by Garrett Hardin (1968), ‘The Population Bomb’ by Paul and Anne Erhlich (1968), and ‘The Limits to Growth’ published by the Club of Rome (1972).
Many other green contributions to the growth debate were more nuanced, recognising that the problems of growth were more interwoven with other economic and environmental issues, and that the association between population and sustainability was no simple cause and effect relationship. Three of my favourites from that time were ‘The Closing Circle’ by Barry Commoner (1971), ‘Exit, Voice and Loyalty’ by Albert O Hirschman (1970), and ‘The Social Limits to Growth’ by Fred Hirsch (1976).
Recent Decades
The knowledge and ideas necessary to support sustainably a global population of up to ten billion people do exist. The problem is that we do not sufficiently incorporate such knowledge and ideas into our in institutions, let alone our day-to-day thinking. At times we regress.
In particular, from around 1980, the re‑adoption of crude economic liberalism, which over‑emphasises private property rights, and which substantially plays down the role of cooperative institutions in dealing with systemic global problems. In short, pure economic liberalism teaches that there is, at most, a trivial discrepancy between individual action governed by market forces and the need for public action to address systemic issues.
As a result, there was an undermining of those public institutions that operated to their greatest extent in the years from 1945 to 1980, and which underpinned the Malthusian preventative checks.
The good news is the return to economic pragmatism which came in particular as a response to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), and the accompanying rejection of pure economic liberalism.
Global inequality – especially inequality within societies – is the major route back to the underlying conditions of 200 years ago; the conditions that informed Malthus’ writing. Inequality is a systemic problem that cannot be left to self-interested forces to resolve, though market forces (and other individual actions) will play a necessary role in any transition to population and environmental sustainability.
We need to disavow ourselves of those private instincts to hoard money (and, latterly, toilet paper!), to emphasise the importance of paid work over other aspects of life; and to disavow the overriding sense of guilt than can arise when we slacken from our private financial quests, or act without the permission of our managers. Our ethic to accumulate, individually, money through working and saving is not the way forward to maintaining sustainable societies and a sustainable world; rather this Victorian ethos remains the mental prison that makes systemic solutions so difficult to achieve.
Covid-19
My view is that Covid‑19 is not a Malthusian crisis; it is not the positive check that we have to have. But it is a warning – a reminder – that positive checks will run through global society in the future (and, once they start, they can be quick), if human societies fail to maintain and evolve the necessary preventative checks. Sustainable living is a set of choices, but not choices that can be left to politicians, technocrats and media plutocrats. These are choices that requires the ‘voice’ of the ordinary people on the frontline, as the economic philosopher Albert O Hirschman wrote about in his discussions of Exit and Voice. This means that many more people should be absorbing and adapting the knowledge and ideas that are there, and in many cases have been there for a long time. Education is much more than the acquisition of technical skills required by employers. Constructively critical education – including self‑education – allows good people to democratise their futures.
Covid-19 is teaching us about kindness – empathy with sympathy. That gives humanity hope.
New cases of the coronavirus are reported every day, and as yet there’s no vaccine. So what treatments are available if you’re one of the unlucky ones who gets infected?
If your symptoms are mild, you should treat them the same way you would a cold or flu.
A spectrum of severity
SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is one of hundreds of viruses that cause colds and flu symptoms in humans.
The infection ranges in severity from almost silent (asymptomatic), to a mild cold, all the way to lung and organ failure. The symptoms may be worse than a normal cold or flu because this coronavirus is new (or “novel”) to our species and we haven’t built up herd immunity to it yet.
But current estimates suggest about 80% of cases will have relatively mild to moderate illness.
If you’re one of these, you might not know for sure whether you have COVID-19, as you may not be eligible for testing. It’s important you self-isolate if you’re unwell regardless.
But from the perspective of treatment, if your illness is reasonably mild, it doesn’t really matter whether you have a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis or not.
So how do I treat the symptoms?
The World Health Organisation (WHO) says the most common symptoms of COVID-19 are fever, tiredness, and dry cough. Some patients may have aches and pains, nasal congestion, runny nose, a sore throat or diarrhoea.
The most bothersome symptoms tend to be fever and muscle pains. You can safely treat these with paracetamol.
The WHO initially recommended people with COVID-19 avoid taking ibuprofen to relieve symptoms. But it retracted that advice days later, so it seems reasonable to also consider using anti-inflammatory drugs.
You can treat nasal congestion with decongestants and nasal saline. Effective treatments for a sore throat include honey, salt water gargles, and sore throat sprays or gargles.
Cough is a more difficult symptom to control, but you may be able to improve it with honey, steam inhalations and saline nose sprays. Cough suppressants have only minimal benefit in reducing a dry cough.
Look to the same kind of remedies you would if you were sick with a regular cold or flu.Shutterstock
There’s some evidence zinc lozenges may shorten the duration of some colds and flus, including COVID-19. But this evidence is conflicting and not of high quality.
Meanwhile, there’s no convincing evidence beyond the placebo effect for a range of other common treatments, such a vitamin C and echinacea. But these are unlikely to cause harm.
Don’t try this at home
It’s important not to take medicines that haven’t been approved for the treatment of colds and flus.
Anecdotal reports and a small case series of patients in China have suggested a role for the antimalarial drug chloroquine in treating COVID-19.
Further clinical trials of this drug are currently underway, but at this stage it’s recommended as treatment only in COVID-19 cases complicated by viral or bacterial pneumonia, and under the guidance of medical professionals.
One HIV antiviral combination drug, lopinavir-ritonavir, seemed promising. But it failed to make a significant difference in 199 patients with COVID-19 in China.
So there are no effective curative treatments as yet, but clinical trials of different antiviral agents are continuing.
While lots of information about prevention and treatments for coronavirus is circulating online, a good rule of thumb is if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.
If you’re unsure about anything, look to reliable sources like the Australian government or the WHO, or consult a doctor.
What about people with more serious illness?
About five to seven days after the onset of symptoms, some patients develop shortness of breath and trouble breathing, which will require medical attention.
Shortness of breath occurs when pneumonia develops, causing a buildup of thick mucus in the lungs that blocks the transfer of oxygen into the blood vessels.
If your condition deteriorates, call ahead to a doctor or hospital and inform them of your COVID-19 status. If you’re experiencing severe symptoms, such as shortness of breath, call an ambulance.
If your symptoms are more severe, you might need treatment in hospital.Shutterstock
How long before I’m not infectious anymore?
If you’re hospitalised with COVID-19, you will remain in isolation until you’re no longer experiencing symptoms and a test confirms you’re no longer infectious.
In a group of hospitalised patients in China, the average duration of virus still detected in the respiratory tract was 20 days.
Mild cases, however, have a shorter duration of illness, and the virus clears more quickly from their bodies.
Australian guidelines state that cases with a mild illness not requiring hospitalisation can end their self-isolation if they meet these two criteria:
at least ten days have passed since the onset of symptoms
all symptoms of acute illness have been resolved for the previous 72 hours.
Defined as “public participation and collaboration in scientific research”, citizen science allows everyday people to use technology to unite towards a common goal – from the comfort of their homes. And it is now offering a chance to contribute to research on the coronavirus pandemic.
With so many of us staying home, this could help build a sense of community where we may otherwise feel helpless, or struggle with isolation.
Anyone is welcome to contribute. You don’t need expertise, just time and interest. Projects exist in many forms, catering to people of diverse ages, backgrounds and circumstances. Many projects offer resources and guides to help you get started, and opportunities to collaborate via online discussion forums.
Ditch the news cycle – engage, gain skills and make a difference
Scientists worldwide are racing to find effective treatments and vaccines to halt the coronavirus pandemic. As a citizen scientist, you can join the effort to help tackle COVID-19, and other infectious diseases.
Foldit is an online game that challenges players to fold proteins to better understand their structure and function. The Foldit team is now challenging citizen scientists to design antiviral proteins that can bind with the coronavirus.
The highest scoring designs will be manufactured and tested in real life. In this way, Foldit offers a creative outlet that could eventually contribute to a future vaccine for the virus.
Another similar project is Folding@home. This is a distributed computing project that, rather than using you to find proteins, uses your computer’s processing power to run calculations in the background. Your computer becomes one of thousands running calculations, all working together.
One way to combat infectious diseases is by monitoring their spread, to predict outbreaks.
Online surveillance project FluTracking helps track influenza. By completing a 10-second survey each week, participants aid researchers in monitoring the prevalence of flu-like symptoms across Australia and New Zealand. It could also help track the spread of the coronavirus.
Such initiatives are increasingly important in the global fight against emerging infectious diseases, including COVID-19.
Citizen science portal Flutracking’ was designed to allow researchers and citizens to track flu-like symptoms around Australia and New Zealand.
Another program, PatientsLikeMe, empowers patients who have tested positive to a disease to share their experiences and treatment regimes with others who have similar health concerns. This lets researchers test potential treatments more quickly.
If you’d like to get your mind off COVID-19, there’s a plethora of other options for citizen scientists. You can contribute to conservation and nature recovery efforts – a task many took to after the recent bushfires.
Some sites ask volunteers to digitise data from ongoing environmental monitoring programs. Contributors need no prior experience, and interpret photos taken with remote digital cameras using online guides. One example is Western Australia’s Western Shield Camera Watch, available through Zooniverse.
Other sites crowdsource volunteers to transcribe data from natural history collections (DigiVol), historical logbooks from explorers, and weather observation stations (Southern Weather Discovery).
The Cornell Lab of Ornithology’s citizen science app eBird uses bird sightings to fuel research and conservation efforts.eBird
Nature watching is a great self-isolation activity because you can do it anywhere, including at home. Questagame runs a series of “bioquests” where people of all ages and experience levels can photograph animals and plants they encounter.
In April, we’ll also have the national Wild Pollinator Count. This project invites participants to watch any flowering plant for just ten minutes, and record insects that visit the flowers. The aim is to boost knowledge on wild pollinator activity.
The data collected through citizen science apps are used by researchers to explore animal migration, understand ranges of species, and determine how changes in climate, air quality and habitat affect animal behaviour.
This year for the first time, several Australian cities are participating in iNaturalist’s City Nature Challenge. The organisers have adapted planned events with COVID-19 in mind, and suggest ways to document nature while maintaining social distancing. You can simply capture what you can see in your backyard, or when taking a walk, or put a moth light out at night to see what it attracts.
Connecting across generations
For those at home with children, there are a variety of projects aimed at younger audiences.
If you’re talented at writing or drawing, why not keep a nature diary, and share your observations through a blog.
By contributing to research through digital platforms, citizen scientists offer a repository of data experts might not otherwise have access to. The Australian Citizen Science Association (ACSA) website has details on current projects you can join, or how to start your own.
Apart from being a valuable way to pass time while self-isolating, citizen science reminds us of the importance of community and collaboration at a time it’s desperately needed.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Bret Hart, Adjunct Clinical Associate Professor Curtin Medical School Public Health Physician, Curtin University
You might have heard about contact tracing which, when combined with social distancing, has proven a powerful asset in controlling the spread of COVID-19.
In short, it means assigning a “contact tracer” to interview each person with a confirmed case of COVID-19. The contact tracer, through painstaking and quick detective work, finds out who else might have already acquired the virus from the infectious person, or been exposed.
“Close contacts” of a person who might have COVID-19 can then be isolated (if sick) or quarantined (if well) to lessen further spread of the virus. The contact tracer will be especially interested in any contact who may be in a higher-risk group, such as older or immuno-compromised people.
This technique has also been used to better understand and limit the spread of HIV, meningitis and other diseases. It is a powerful tool discovered almost a century ago to limit the spread of sexually transmitted infections from and to American troops.
The COVID-19 virus is located in the respiratory tract and is spread when someone coughs or sneezes, dispersing infected droplets like a scatter gun.
One sneeze or cough can spread infected droplets everywhere, even onto surfaces that people may touch later.Michael Bret Hart, Author provided
Several people can be infected from one COVID-19 positive person, even by later entering a room and touching contaminated objects.
So contact tracing under these circumstances is challenging. The droplet spreader will have to recall his or her movements carefully.
The contact tracer will be especially interested to know:
who has this confirmed case met or talked with recently? Was it inside or outside?
who have they sat near, for example in a lecture hall or other enclosed space?
have they been to a big event like a footy match?
Queensland Health succinctly summarises the procedure, in accordance with the Communicable Disease Network Australia guidelines, saying:
Close contacts are those who have had face-to-face contact with a confirmed case for a period more than 15 minutes, or those who have shared an enclosed space with a confirmed case for more than two hours.
We are not looking for people the person may have passed on the street or in a shop, as the risk in these situations is extremely low.
If you have been in close contact with someone who has a confirmed case of novel coronavirus you need to self-quarantine for 14 days from your last contact with them. If you become unwell during that period, see a doctor immediately.
And here’s how Singapore explains their contact tracing process, well-honed by previous experience managing Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and H1N1 influenza (sometimes called bird flu):
To facilitate the process, Victoria is using a new text messaging system to monitor close contacts.
If the contact tracing process was applied to every COVID-19 case, it would help reduce (but not completely stop) the spread of the coronavirus. It’s important to remember that possibly less than half of all infected people are symptomatic. Contact tracing could help find those people and ask them to self-isolate.
It’s also important to ensure we have enough testing kits to keep up. Our testing rate is currently one of the highest in the world and ensuring a steady supply of testing kits is crucial as the virus spreads.
In the real world, however, the effectiveness of contact tracing depends on the skills, extent and capacity of the contact tracing workforce as well as compliance with the contact tracers’ advice.
Wuhan, with a population about half that of Australia, had more than 1800 teams of epidemiologists, with a minimum of five people per team, who traced tens of thousands of contacts a day. Previous reviews of health workforce capacity suggest that Australia is not so well resourced, which is why the Australian Defence Force is helping here.
Contact tracing and isolation are our two most important assets in the effort to limit the spread of coronavirus, so we need to ensure contact tracing teams are well resourced.
The Great Barrier Reef is suffering its third mass bleaching event in five years. It follows the record-breaking mass bleaching event in 2016 that killed a third of Great Barrier Reef corals, immediately followed by another in 2017.
While we don’t know if fish populations declined from the 2016 bleaching disaster, one 2018 study did show the types of fish species on some coral reefs changed. Our study dug deeper into fish DNA.
I was part of an international team of scientists that, for the first time, tracked wild populations of five species of coral reef fish before, during, and after the 2016 marine heatwave.
From a scientific perspective, the results are fascinating and world-first.
Marine heatwaves are now becoming more frequent and more severe with climate change. Corals are bleaching, as pictured here.Jodie Rummer, Author provided
We used gene expression as a tool to survey how well fish can handle hotter waters. Gene expression is the process where a gene is read by cell machinery and creates a product such as a protein, resulting in a physical trait.
We know many tropical coral reef fish are already living at temperatures close to their upper limits. Our findings can help predict which of these species will be most at risk from repeated heatwaves.
But from a personal perspective, I still feel nauseous thinking about what the reef looked like during this project. I’ll probably feel this way for a long time.
Rewind to November 2015
We were prepared. Back then we didn’t know the reef was about to bleach and lead to widespread ecological devastation. But we did anticipate that 2016 would be an El Niño year. This is a natural climate cycle that would mean warm summer waters in early 2016 would stick around longer than usual.
But we can’t blame El Niño – the ocean has already warmed by 1°C above pre-industrial levels from continued greenhouse gas emissions. What’s more, marine heatwaves are becoming more frequent and severe with climate change.
Given this foresight, we took some quick liver biopsies from several coral reef fish species at our field site in December 2015, just in case.
Coral bleaching at Magnetic Island, March 2020.Victor Huertas, Author provided
A couple months later, we were literally in hot water
In February 2016, my colleague and I were based on Lizard Island in the northern part of the Great Barrier Reef working on another project.
The low tides had shifted to the afternoon hours. We were collecting fish in the shallow lagoon off the research station, and our dive computers read that the water temperature was 33°C.
We looked at each other. These are the temperatures we use to simulate climate change in our laboratory studies for the year 2050 or 2100, but they’re happening now.
Over the following week, we watched corals turn fluorescent and then bone-white.
The water was murky with slime from the corals’ immune responses and because they were slowly exuding their symbiotic zooxanthellae – the algae that provides corals with food and the vibrant colours we know and love when we think about a coral reef. The reef was literally dying before our eyes.
A third of the corals on the Great Barrier Reef perished after the 2016 heatwave.Jodie Rummer, Author provided
Traits for dealing with heatwaves
We sampled fish during four time periods around this devastating event: before, at the start, during, and after.
Some genes are always “switched on”, regardless of environmental conditions. Other genes switch on or off as needed, depending on the environment.
If we found these fish couldn’t regulate their gene expression in response to temperature stress, then the functions – such as metabolism, respiration, and immune function – also cannot change as needed. Over time, this could compromise survival.
The plasticity (a bit like flexibility) of these functions, or phenotypes, is what buffers an organism from environmental change. And right now, this may be the only hope for maintaining the health of coral reef ecosystems in the face of repeated heatwave events.
So, what were the fish doing?
We looked at expression patterns of thousands of genes. We found the same genes responded differently between species. In other words, some fish struggled more than others to cope with marine heatwaves.
Ostorhinchus doederleini, a species of cardinalfish, is bad at coping with marine heatwaves.Göran Nilsson, Author provided
The species that coped the least was a nocturnal cardinalfish species (Cheilodipterus quinquelineatus). We found it had the lowest number of differentially expressed genes (genes that can switch on or off to handle different stressors), even when facing the substantial change in conditions from the hottest to the coolest months.
In contrast, the spiny damselfish (Acanthochromis polyacanthus) responded to the warmer conditions with changes in the expression of thousands of genes, suggesting it was making the most changes to cope with the heatwave conditions.
What can these data tell us?
Our findings not only have implications for specific fish species, but for the whole ecosystem. So policymakers and the fishing industry should screen more species to predict which will be sensitive and which will tolerate warming waters and heatwaves. This is not a “one size fits all” situation.
One of the species that showed the least amount of change under warming was Cheilodipterus quinquelineatus.Moises Antonio Bernal de Leon, Author provided
Fish have been on the planet for more than 400 million years. Over time , they may adapt to rising temperatures or migrate to cooler waters.
But, the three recent mass bleaching events is unprecedented in human history, and fish won’t have time to adapt.
My drive to protect the oceans began when I was a child. Now it’s my career. Despite the progress my colleagues and I have made, my nauseous feelings remain, knowing our science alone may not be enough to save the reef.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jeremy Baskin, Fellow, Melbourne School of Government and Melbourne Law School, University of Melbourne
G20 leaders have pledged to do “whatever it takes” to minimise the impacts of COVID-19.
Most of these nations are lumbered with welfare safety nets unfit for purpose. They are designed for last century, with a binary way of thinking about employment that’s no longer the experience of casual, contract and gig workers.
The limitations are being thoroughly exposed by a crisis further blurring the line between having or not having work.
A simple solution is a universal basic income – a regular payment to every adult, no questions asked.
The deficiencies of current welfare nets have been demonstrated in Australia over the past week. The nation’s social security system has been in meltdown as hundreds of thousands make new claims for government assistance.
There have been massive queues at Centrelink offices. The government’s MyGov website has crashed and phone calls have gone unanswered.
A queue outside a Centrelink office in Heidelberg, Melbourne, March 24 2020.Stefan Postles/AAP
These problems are more than logistical. They are also ideological, reflecting how the system has been conceived. It requires people to jump through bureaucratic hoops, filling in forms and providing documents and financial statements. It judges need according to a binary (employed-unemployed) way of thinking, with processes that are punitive and complex.
No conditions attached
The universal basic income (UBI) is a well-developed idea to address these problems with existing social security regimes.
The basic idea is to make a regular cash payment to all adult individuals, no conditions attached. The intention is to ensure the welfare safety net reflects the fact many more people in informal, casual, part-time, portfolio, irregular and self-employed work face financial stress despite technically being employed. Everyone gets the means for a basic existence regardless of their employment situation.
Limited trials have occurred in Finland, Kenya and Canada. These have generally found recipients are happier and not disincentivised to look for work, a common criticism of the concept.
Unemployment spiking
The most common criticism of the universal basic income is its cost. But now, with the need for income support spiking and governments adopting a “whatever it takes” approach to spending to keep economies afloat, this argument is not compelling.
The scale of the economic challenge is demonstrated by Australia’s unemployment predictions for the next six months jumping from 7% a week ago to 11%. Government Services Minister Stuart Robert this week acknowledged the decision to close businesses had left “maybe a million people unemployed overnight”. That million, on top of 700,000 already unemployed, would take the jobless rate above 12%.
In truth, much like the trajectory of the coronavirus, no estimates can be relied upon at this stage, other than to say unemployment levels will be very high. Along with pensioners and other welfare recipients, this means government financial support will be crucial for a significant proportion of households.
How it might work
The advantage of a universal basic income scheme, especially now, is that it is simple and easily understandable.
This is how it might work in Australia.
It would be run through the Australian Taxation Office, not Centrelink. A direct payment would be made fortnightly into the bank account of all adult Australian citizens and permanent residents over 18 years and no longer at school.
That’s it.
The money would be taxable income, so the tax office would recoup a significant portion from higher earners. For now, it could exclude those over 65 years for whom long-standing pension and retirement systems exist and which we may not want to meddle with at this time.
Ballpark estimates
Australia’s United Workers Union (representing workers in hospitality, health, aged care, supermarket supply, cleaning and other exposed sectors) has advocated a universal basic income equivalent to the minium wage – A$740 a week.
But I’m going to make some ballpark calculations based on an emergency universal basic income payment of A$550 a fortnight.
This is equal to the bonus the Australian government is giving job seekers during the crisis (double their usual payment).
To extend this to 7.65 million eligible Australians would cost about A$55 billion over six months. The government would recoup a portion of this, though, through income tax and being able to suspend some (but not all) existing welfare payments.
That compares with almost A$84 billion – about 3.5% of GDP – in spending already announced by the Australian government. About A$24 billion of this is for payments to welfare recipients, with the lion’s share directed to business and industry.
At a time of economic crisis unprecedented in our lifetimes, an innovative approach like a universal basic income could be an essential, simple, confidence-boosting and popular response.
Like the other 200 or so respiratory viruses we know of, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the new coronavirus, infects the cells of our airways.
It causes a range of signs and symptoms, or none at all. It can spread easily from person-to-person, and can be coughed into the air and onto surfaces.
Viruses only replicate inside a living cell – outside the cell, they’re on a path to either infect us, or their own destruction. How long a virus survives outside a cell varies.
Researchers found SARS-CoV-2 remains infectious in airborne droplets for at least three hours. This doesn’t mean infected humans produce enough virus in a cough to infect another person, but they might.
We think the virus also spreads by touch. Hard, shiny surfaces such as plastic, stainless steel, benchtops, and likely glass can support infectious virus, expelled in droplets, for up to 72 hours. But the virus rapidly degrades during this time. On fibrous and absorbent surfaces such as cardboard, paper, fabric and hessian, it becomes inactive more quickly.
How can we reduce risk from surfaces and objects?
Frequently touched surfaces are all around us. Benches, handrails, door handles – they are in our homes, on our way to work, school, play, shop, and every other destination. There’s a risk of contaminating these surfaces if we touch them with virus-laden fingers, and a risk we’ll contract the virus from such surfaces.
Think of your hands as the enemy. Wash them well, and much more often than usual. Between hand-washing, avoid constantly touching the mucous membranes that lead to your airways. Basically, try not to rub your eyes, pick your nose, or touch your lips and mouth.
We’re already seeing engineering initiatives to help combat the virus’s spread. In Sydney, pedestrian crossings have been automated so people can avoid touching the buttons.
To slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2, assume everything outside your home is potentially contaminated, and act accordingly. So don’t touch your face, sanitise frequently while you are out, and wash your hands and clean your phone once home.
While it’s best to stay home, keep these tips in mind if you must leave the house.
• Going shopping
Grocery shopping requires touching surfaces and items, including trolleys and baskets. Sometimes sanitiser or antibacterial wipes are available for hands and handles at the store entrance – but they’re often not, so bring your own. It probably doesn’t matter what type of bag you use, but have a plan for how to avoid bringing the virus into your home.
• Making payments
Cards and cash could transfer the virus to your hands. That said, card payment is probably lower risk because you retain the card and don’t have to touch other people. But wherever possible, contact-free bank transfers would pose the least risk.
• Handling and eating fresh and canned food
SARS-CoV-2 is inactivated at temperatures well below those required in the process of canning food, so canned food is free of it. For freshly packaged food, risk depends on whether the person doing the packing was sick or not. If you are concerned, stick with food that can be cooked, peeled or washed in mild soapy water, and thoroughly rinsed.
While evidence is weak, we know soap and water should inactivate SARS-CoV-2 on food – but this will work better on foods with a shinier, harder outer surface, compared to foods that have been cut or have softer surfaces, such as strawberries and raspberries. If you decide to wash any food with soap, make sure all the soap is removed.
• At the park
Avoid equipment that is likely used a lot, including play equipment and water fountains. It would be safer to kick a ball around or play on the grass, rather than use swings. Sandpits hold horrors other than SARS-CoV-2.
• Takeaway and deliveries
When getting takeaway food, or for businesses offering it, avoid plastic containers and use more fibrous materials such as cardboard, paper and fabric for packaging. Researchers found no infectious SARS-CoV-2 on cardboard after 24 hours.
Also, avoid proximity to servers and delivery people, and opt for contactless delivery whenever you can.
• Public transport, escalators, elevators and bathrooms
Frequently touched hard, shiny surfaces such as lift buttons and handle bars in trams are a big risk, more so than fabric seats, or taking the stairs. Even the most high-tech overseas surface cleaning efforts are intermittent, so you’ll need to take responsibility for yourself. Also, after using public bathrooms, wash your hands well.
Calm and calculated
It’s important to be calm, realistic and not focus on single events or actions once you step outside. You can’t account for everything.
Think more about the risk of the entire task rather than the many small risks encountered during the process. A silver lining in taking such precautions is that you’ll also reduce your risk of catching the flu this season.
It’s also important to keep your home clean. You can use diluted bleach, detergents or alcohol solutions on surfaces. Queensland Health has more information.
Ultimately, the best ways to avoid SARS-CoV-2 infection are primitive ones – sanitise your hands and stay away from others. Physical distancing remains the most effective measure to slow the progression of this pandemic.
A week ago, Shaun Hendy packed up a desktop computer and monitor at his University of Auckland office and carted the whole lot home to his Grey Lynn bungalow in Auckland.
When you’re leading the team that’s modelling the worst-case scenarios for how Covid-19 coronavirus might spread in New Zealand, you don’t wait for a government directive to stay home: you follow your own advice.
“Once we realised that this work was probably going to be really critical, and having a little bit of an insight into what was coming, we moved people home last week.”
The study was already occupied by Hendy’s wife, a lawyer, who needed somewhere to keep confidential client files. So Hendy works at the kitchen table, back turned to the garden outside, with last night’s dishes and occasional visits from the neighbour’s allergy-provoking cats as mild distractions.
Mostly though, he is intent on the three screens arranged before him: desktop, laptop, iPad.
– Partner –
Te Pūnaha Matatini, the centre for research excellence that Hendy leads, studies complex systems and networks. Right now, he and the centre’s other researchers are working to predict how Covid-19’s web of infection might spread – and if it’s possible to slow it down or even stop it.
His colleague, microbiologist Siouxsie Wiles (who has now become one of the foremost science communicators during the outbreak), was first to take notice of the virus when it began to run rampant in parts of China.
‘Watching nervously’
“She was watching it nervously back in January, so we were kind of aware of it.”
About a month ago, Hendy himself decided to do a little bit of preliminary modelling.
“That told me it was gonna be bad… And so at that point we decided we should really start building a project team to refine the type of modelling I was doing.”
A pair of Christchurch colleagues who were on sabbatical began working full-time on the model almost immediately and the team has expanded since then to about 20 people, mostly in Auckland and Christchurch.
The initial modelling the team published yesterday is stark and, frankly, terrifying.
Left unchecked, the virus would eventually infect 89 percent of New Zealand’s population and kill up to 80,000 people in a worst-case scenario.
ICU beds would reach capacity within two months and the number of patients needing intensive care would exceed 10 times that capacity by the time the virus peaked.
Health system would collapse
“Tens of thousands of people would die, our health system would collapse and people wouldn’t be able to get proper treatment. That explains why the government’s been prepared to take such drastic steps,” Hendy says.
“The worst-case scenario is a really unpalatable one.”
Even the best-case scenario is hard to swallow. It assumes restrictions similar to the lockdown now in place – but suggests that unless testing, contact tracing, and isolation cut the number of cases to just a handful, the restrictions might need to remain in place for over a year.
And if the cases can’t be stamped out under those restrictions, the eventual peak will swell well beyond hospital capacity as soon as any lockdown ends, unless a vaccine or treatment is found in the interim.
“When controls are lifted after 400 days, an outbreak occurs with a similar peak size as for an uncontrolled epidemic,” Hendy and his colleagues wrote in a paper rushed out yesterday.
“In other words, these strategies can delay but not prevent the epidemic.”
The good news – if there is any – is that while strict suppression measures remain in place, fatalities should remain in the low dozens and hospital capacity wouldn’t be exceeded. That would buy New Zealand time to wait for a vaccine or a successful treatment.
Best-case scenario
That research was given to the government last week as it grappled with how to respond to the pandemic. The team’s best-case scenario – strong suppression – is essentially what the government has gone with, Hendy says.
“One of the great things about going into lockdown now is it really does make the job easier for the contact tracing and the testing… If that works and we can stamp out the disease, then we really might only see a handful of deaths and be able to keep this thing out.
It still means we’re going to have international travel restrictions for a long time, because the disease is out of control internationally and we’re going to have to keep it out.”
After three weeks of working autonomously, the team’s interaction with government officials is about to ramp up.
“We’ve now got a connection with the national crisis management centre, who are acting as a clearing-house – so… we’ll actually be sending them daily modelling reports.”
Hendy’s hopeful that might mean some funding to keep the work going. He has already repurposed Te Punaha Matatini’s now-unnecessary travel budget to pay the PhD and post-doctoral students he’s drafted in to help.
“Eventually we’re gonna burn through that and we’ll need to get money from central government to keep the effort going, but we’ve been able to be flexible and actually make a start.”
Moved onto next phase
While the initial research has only just been made public, Hendy’s team has already moved on to the next phase. That includes a regional model to assess the variable impact of Covid-19 around the country and variations to see what happens if restrictions are lifted after a period of time.
“We look at what happens if you take controls on and off,” Hendy says. “Can you put your foot on the brake for a while and then take it off and let everybody have a breather?”
In unprecedented conditions, the team is drawing on whatever past experience it can. Among Hendy’s colleagues are researchers who worked on modelling and controlling the Mycoplasma bovis outbreak in cattle, and the 2015 Queensland fruit fly scare in Grey Lynn, Auckland – coincidentally, the suburb Hendy lives in – where restrictions on the movement of fruit and vegetables were put in place.
Three years ago, Hendy and others carried out a study to see if they could predict the spread of seasonal flu by looking at aggregated location data from mobile phones, to track the movement of people from one DHB area to another.
“On a given day, how many people went from MidCentral to Capital & Coast, for example? And that was enough for us to say something useful about how the flu moved around the country.”
Now, they’re hoping to do the same for Covid-19, but at a suburb-to-suburb level. “We ought to see a big reduction in people moving round… and that’ll start to give us a good handle on how well we’re combating the disease.”
The kitchen table Ground Zero for New Zealand’s Covid-19 modelling isn’t foolproof.
‘First big hiccup’
“I had my first big hiccup this morning when someone from central government emailed me a whole bunch of Excel spreadsheets. My email client crashed and I was out of action for about ten minutes,” Hendy says.
Mostly things have gone smoothly. They use Zoom, they use Slack, there’s some sharing of code. If they need it, there’s high-performance cloud storage available to them.
“It actually helps that a lot of our people have worked together before…. We’ve got used to working remotely together so you can work quite efficiently.”
For the next little while, though, the model will be “a little bit rudimentary”.
“It’s the first time we’ve ever done anything like this in New Zealand so there’s a lot of guesswork involved,” he says. “Every day we’re rebuilding the engine under the hood.”
This article is republished by the Pacific Media Centre under a partnership agreement with RNZ.
If you havesymptomsof the coronavirus, call the NZ Covid-19 Healthline on 0800 358 5453 (+64 9 358 5453 for international SIMs) or call your GP – don’t show up at a medical centre.
Some years ago, I travelled to Israel for a conference on dramaturgy. Losing my way at the train station, I was rescued by a soldier who chatted with me all the way to Tel Aviv. I dreaded what was coming. What was I doing there, he asked? In a region of endless conflict and, for this young man, daily risk, my reply seemed feeble to my ears.
Yet his face lit up as if I had opened a window. Dramaturgy! A subject as far away from war and ancient hatreds as it was possible to get. He would love to talk about it. And so we did.
We are not defined by the calamities that befall us. We are more than the sum of our hazards, hardships and heartbreaks. We are defined, as individuals and as a nation, by the positive content of our lives and, in this, even the humble craft of dramaturgy has a role to play.
The world can be a place of terrifying challenge. As I write, my mother is in lock-down in a Sydney care home and my brother, who barely escaped dying from pneumonia a year ago, has returned to a crowded and chaotic Britain. A common story across Australia.
The arts and culture we will turn to in coming months to fill our time in isolation will provide us not just with distraction, but with meaning. Today, representatives of Australia’s diverse arts institutions sent an open letter to Prime Minister Scott Morrison, encouraging him to …
issue a public statement recognising the value of our industry to all Australians, and the debilitating impacts of COVID-19 on the arts, cultural and entertainment industries and the creative sector as a whole. This message would affirm your commitment to the livelihoods and the infrastructure that inspires the nation.
Our images define us. Sunbathers on Albert Park Beach, late 1950s.Museums Victoria/Unsplash, CC BY
Imagined communities
Benedict Anderson coined the term “imagined communities” to describe how a nation takes its character from the ideas and feelings people have about it. If his concept has a critical edge, it also has an inspirational one.
Australian culture is not just another industry waiting to get a truckload of public subsidy to pull it through straightened times ahead. It is the living heart of our nation, the muscle that, in the face of adversity, allows us to pull together and be a nation, not just a mob of panicky hamster shoppers.
Online streaming performances and digital exhibition spaces may not be an immediate salve to the impulse to stockpile food. But they are a reminder that if, satisfying our physical needs comes first in Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, the real question is what are we satisfying them for?
ABC political commentator Laura Tingle has seen in the prime minister the signs of a new maturity. It would be timely to discover in this a more expansive understanding of Australian arts and culture. This means, above all, more respect for the institutions, large and small, that underpin it.
The steady acid rain of negative government attitudes to the cultural sector – the stand-out example has been its rancorous stance towards the ABC – must be reversed. In the words of Morrison himself, “just stop it”. Stop partisan undermining of the institutions that define our cultural way of life.
The ABC is an authoritative source of information and advice about the COVID-19 pandemic. The government should recognise and properly reward its crucial role, not just presume it. Overseas, Germany has set a new international benchmark, announcing €50 billion (A$92 billion) in assistance for its artists and creative businesses.
Minister for Communications, Cyber Safety and the Arts Paul Fletcher met with state cultural ministers last week.AAP/Lukas Coch
Culture’s intrinsic value
Arts and culture make important and varied contributions to the national economy and social cohesion. But the reason they do so is because of their intrinsic value. This arises in two forms.
Firstly, our culture is a steady source of thoughts, feelings, stories, images and moments which coalesce and collectively define us – what the philosopher John Searle called “the background”. Culture brings us pleasure, connection, meaning and joy, and in the current situation that’s a significant contribution to our narrowing lives.
Secondly, and even more crucially, it is where we may find our best selves. To act in a creative way is to act generously. This is not to say that artists are better than anyone else, or that creativity is the sole preserve of the arts. It is to observe that to be creative is to give to others through a selfless impulse to share, and not just a desire to monetise that relationship as an economic transaction.
Australian governments have a long history of bad ideas about arts and culture. But there are moments when things have turned around.
Douglas Stewart’s play, Ned Kelly premiered in October 1944, when World War II was raging, and Australia faced unprecedented hardships and trials. With costumes and set design by painter Norman Lindsay, the fact that the show happened at all was a miracle of persistence and make-do (the cast borrowed their boots from local policemen).
A 16-year-old schoolboy saw the play, and it shaped his choice of career. He was the historian Manning Clark, who later wrote:
It was an event in my life which made me pose the question: why are we as we are? … In moments of despair, and they happen all too often, my mind takes comfort from recalling that night in Melbourne when [Ned Kelly] got me thinking about what Australia stands for.
This is what our arts and culture should mean to us, what they do mean to us, now more than ever.
If I told you that last night I built a blanket fort in the living room, crawled inside with my cat, a glass of wine and my just-arrived copy of the New Yorker, would you think less of me?
After all, we’re in the midst of a global coronavirus pandemic. Borders are closing, people are sick, dying, losing their jobs, and locked in isolation. And there was I, playing – as though I didn’t have a care in the world.
Meanwhile, you might be reading this holed up at home, screaming with fury at those bloody hoarders. Or perhaps you’re on a train valiantly trying to keep 1.5 metres away from the next person, shrinking back as they cough and splutter.
Wherever you are, whatever you’re doing, whatever you think about the pandemic, the economy, or your compatriots, a tiny part of you knows you could do with a bit of pleasure right now.
When we’re first exposed to something stressful, like a deadly new disease, our body reacts with a cascade of small changes such as releasing adrenaline and other chemicals, and activating brain regions related to fear and anger.
In many cases those changes make it more likely we’ll meet the challenges we face.
Our risk of chronic diseases increases, immune function can be compromised, and we become more vulnerable to mental health problems.
We can feel depleted, disconnected, anxious and depressed. We can become fixated on negative thoughts and on looking for signs of threat. Sound familiar?
The good news is the effects of stress on the brain are reversible.
Pleasure in times of stress
It may seem too simple to be true but shifting our attention toward the small, everyday pleasures in our lives can offset the consequences of stress or negative events.
US researchers reported last year that experiencing pleasurable emotions, for example having interesting things to do, serves as a buffer between chronic stress and depression. So, among people with sustained, high levels of stress, those who reported more pleasurable moments were likely to experience less severe depressive symptoms.
Pleasurable experiences might even be of most benefit in times of stress.
We experience pleasure in a myriad ways. Perhaps one of the most potent of pleasures, and one that springs most easily to mind, is a lover’s caress.
But to maximise the pleasure in every day, we should look more widely, to a multitude of sources.
If we’re too busy reading those alarming headlines to notice the beauty of the sun setting outside our window though, it’s a missed opportunity for a moment of delight.
When I recently asked people on Twitter to share the things bringing them delight in these challenging times, I received hundreds of replies within a couple of hours.
Each one was a small vignette conveying a personal moment of simple pleasure. Gardens and dogs and children and nature featured strongly, and many people reflected on the added pleasure of recalling such moments.
Indeed, recollection and anticipation – along with relishing pleasure in the moment – are effective ways to maximise the value of positive experiences or emotions. We call it “savouring”.
Luckily, we can get better at savouring with practice. And the more we savour, the less stressed we feel. And that’s why I’m here.
My message is not to avoid the facts or pretend nothing has changed. It’s to intentionally build in moments of reprieve and restoration. It’s to turn your attention to what is still good and rich and fun – to really focus on those things.
This is how we can harness the protective power of small pleasures, for the sake of delight itself and to build grit and resilience.
So, there may never have been a better time to build a blanket fort, or to bring out a game of Twister, or to lie on your back in the garden making fantasy creatures out of passing clouds. Find excuses to giggle.
In difficult, frightening times, no one is immune to worry; it’s a natural response. But what we can do is take steps to protect ourselves, as much as possible, from its physical and psychological ill-effects.
The challenge is to make this happen, to tear yourself away from analysing the COVID-19 curve and intentionally, systematically engineer more small delights into your day.
Do you like the sunshine? Then know when the sun falls on your balcony, in your garden or in the street near your place. Take a cup of tea or coffee with you and soak up the warmth.
Pets? Run, play, be silly with them. Eating a tomato? Plant the seeds and watch something grow, from nothing, because of you. Sing. Dance. Delight someone with an act of kindness.
Plan your opportunities for pleasure. Put them in your diary. Set your alarm for them. Commit to share them with others. Photograph them. Post them on social media or share them directly with friends and family. Anticipate them gleefully and reflect on them with delight. This is our time to be here. Savour.
As the public health response to supress the COVID-19 virus ramps up, so to does the economic fallout. Shutdowns and enforced spatial distancing are necessary to try to prevent hospital intensive care units becoming overwhelmed.
But businesses on the economic frontline – those shut or soon to be shut down by the public health restrictions – need immediate help to get through.
The necessary temporary hit to business incomes need not become a permanent hit to productive capacity. We should not risk a large swathe of shops, cafes, pubs, hotels, gyms, and hairdressers going to the wall.
Most of these frontline businesses have seen their income dry up overnight. Some have temporarily closed, others are finding creative ways to make some money in online retail or takeaway services, for example, but most will replace only a fraction of their pre-crisis income.
Rent is the biggest barrier to survival
Staff layoffs, or more hopefully stand downs, are the only option for most of these business. Even substantial wage subsidies won’t entice business owners to keep staff on when the business has shut its doors.
For businesses on the economic frontline, most of their variable costs such as wages and stock can be suspended during the shutdown. But their fixed costs – particularly rent – are substantial.
The average retailer pays almost A$12,000 in rent a month; the average gym, $10,000. Cafes and hairdressers are losing $3,000 to $4,000 each month in rent.
For most exposed businesses, rent sits at less than 20% of operating costs under normal conditions, but while they hibernate through coronavirus, that figure will reach somewhere between 80% and 95%.
Some schemes have already been announced to help these businesses. The Commonwealth’s is the largest, and will pay small and medium businesses 100% of salary and wages withheld for tax purposes up to $100,000. For businesses to qualify for the full amount, they will need to withhold the same amount, so will need to be paying staff.
State governments have announced partial relief of tax, rates and fees, and access to loans. This will help, but rent is the big unavoidable cost for most of the frontline businesses.
Exposed businesses will be losing thousands of dollars, or more, each month. Many will have some cash reserves, but for most a shutdown of three months or more will be very difficult to absorb.
A rent holiday, or at least a significant rent discount, would give these businesses a fighting chance at preventing a temporary shutdown becoming a permanent closure.
Market rates are close to zero
Most shopfronts can’t be put to other uses. That means the market price for retail, food, and accommodation services, and personal services shopfronts will be very close to zero during the shutdown.
Some landlords have done the right thing and given their tenants a rent holiday while these restrictions are in place.
This is smart: keeping their tenants in business will give these landlords the best chance of having a rented property when restrictions are lifted.
In normal circumstances, the market would work this through. But the danger here is it will happen too slowly. Some landlords refuse to accept renting out their premises for nothing.
That mindset could send many thousands of shops, cafes, pubs, restaurants, hairdressers, gyms, cinemas, and tourism operators to the wall.
As of last week, more than 70% of businesses in these industries had already been hit by the COVID-19 crisis. That figure is expected to rise beyond 90% in the coming weeks.
“Closures” was the most common word used by business owners surveyed by the Bureau of Statistics about the future effect of COVID-19.
Preventing landlords from evicting commercial tenants, or requiring landlords to defer the rents, won’t help – businesses will still liquidate if they know they will be lumbered with many months of rent to pay back down the track.
While a short-term income hit for landlords isn’t insignificant, the damage to the economy will be much greater if a swathe of small and medium-sized businesses are lost.
Acting now will reduce the damage
The owners of some properties that need rental holidays still have to make monthly mortgage payments to banks. But the banks are offering loan holidays they might be able to take advantage of.
If there are gaps in the loan holiday arrangements, governments should work with the banks to ensure landlords are covered. Alternatively, governments themselves could offer partial compensation for lost rent.
Prosper Australia has suggested a uniform subsidy that replaces 50% of lost commercial tenancy mortgage payments.
Right now, hundreds of thousands of businesses are crunching the numbers to see whether than can stay solvent. With rent on the expense side, those numbers won’t add up for long.
Every state and territory government ought to enact a rental holiday for the types of businesses on the frontline of this crisis. As the economic shockwave reverberates, state and territory ministers should have the power to add other vulnerable industries to that list.
The key is speed. For every day they wait, hundreds of businesses will fold.
Experts are warning the public in Indonesia against panic-buying chloroquine phosphate, an antimalarial drug thought to be a possible treatment for Covid-19, citing the dangerous side effects of the medicine.
Reports have surfaced that people had started to purchase the drug without doctors’ prescription after President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo announced last Friday that the government was preparing medicines, including three million doses of chloroquine, which he described as “having been proven to cure Covid-19 in other countries”.
The West Papua region, where malaria remains a problem, has recorded three confirmed Covid-19 cases as of Wednesday, as nationwide cases have reached 893 with 78 deaths.
Maksum Radji, a clinical microbiologist at the University of Indonesia’s (UI) School of Pharmacy, said the government must be careful in distributing information about the drug as clinical trials were still underway to measure its effectiveness in treating COVID-19.
Even then, any consumption of the drug must be done under a doctor’s supervision, he said.
– Partner –
“It’s wrong to purchase and consume the drug to prevent catching the virus that causes Covid-19. Chloroquine is a strong drug […] given its side effects,” Maksum told The Jakarta Post on Tuesday.
He listed the common side effects of chloroquine consumption, including nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, breathing difficulties, blurred eyesight, stomach cramps, swollen ankles, tinnitus, weakened muscles and mental disorders.
Cautious about chloroquine Nafrialdi from the Clinical Research Support Unit at the UI’s School of Medicine said that even doctors would be very cautious when prescribing chloroquine, which would only be used on severe cases, as the side effects could lead to burst blood vessels and heart attacks in extreme instances.
Chloroquine is used as a second-line drug, the experts say, meaning that it would only be used when initial medicines, common ones used to treat Covid-19 patients’ clinical symptoms, such as fever, do not produce any satisfying results.
Even then, experts are still split over its use in treating the disease.
There are currently no vaccines or antiviral drugs approved for the disease but the World Health Organisation (WHO) is launching a multinational trial to search for potential treatments for the virus, which include chloroquine.
Other drugs in its trial are the experimental antiviral remdesivir initially developed to treat the Ebola virus, an HIV drug combination consisting of the lopinavir/ritonavir and the lopinavir/ritonavir plus interferon.
Maksum of UI said that chloroquine was still used in Indonesia, although not as commonly as other antimalarial drugs considering its side effects.
The drug is being sold on e-commerce platforms in Indonesia.
Difficult to obtain in Papua In Papua, chloroquine used to be easy to find and purchase, a resident who refused to be named told the Post. Recently the drug had got more difficult to obtain, she added, attributing its scarcity to the drug being named a possible treatment for Covid-19.
When reports said that the drug could be used to treat Covid-19 patients, the 55-year-old woman said she consumed the drug every day until she learned about its side effects and that its effectiveness was still being studied.
“No one wants to be infected by the virus,” she said.
The woman said that the government had not been distributing essential information for residents in her area to prevent the spread of the virus, prompting her to relay information about the new virus strain that she learned from the media to her neighbors.
Jokowi said on Monday that the millions of chloroquine doses were produced in the country by state-owned pharmaceutical company PT Kimia Farma and would only be used on Covid-19 patients if doctors deemed it necessary. The company was not available for immediate comment.
“Chloroquine is not a first-line treatment, but a second-line treatment […] The drug is not an over-the-counter drug, so the consumption must be on doctor’s orders,” Jokowi said, adding to his earlier statements about the drug, which many consider misleading.
The government’s spokesperson for Covid-19 affairs, Achmad Yurianto, has also warned the public that chloroquine was not for prevention purposes and hence must not be consumed at home.
“We ask people, once again, not to purchase, store and consume the drug without a doctor’s prescription,” Yurianto said.
WHO-led clinical trials If Indonesia was to use the drug on its Covid-19 patients, Maksum of UI said the government should participate in the WHO-led clinical trials to study potential Covid-19 treatments so that the results could be part of the WHO’s global data.
He cited experts suggesting that chloroquine could disrupt the virus’ ability to infiltrate living cells and replicate itself, although emphasizing the need for further studies to prove these early assumptions.
Drug discovery commonly would take years and involve at least three stages, but in cases like Covid-19 that had been declared a global pandemic, conforming to such lengthy steps was impossible, Maksum said.
Experts globally have cautioned people not to resort to self-medication since a man in the US state of Arizona died after he ingested chloroquine phosphate — an aquarium cleaning product similar to the drug that had also been named by US President Donald Trump as a potential treatment for Covid-19, Reuters reported.
Trump tweeted about the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, saying it had “a real chance to be one of the biggest game changers in the history of medicine” – a claim played down by America’s top infectious disease expert, Dr Anthony Fauci, who said that the therapy must be tested to assure its safety and efficacy.
Ardila Syakriah is a reporter with The Jakarta Post and this article was first published by the Post.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Bragge, Director of Health Programs, BehaviourWorks Australia; Lead, Monash-McMaster Social Systems Evidence Collaboration, Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash University
COVID-19 is a rare moment in time where individual behaviours can have profound impacts on society.
To address some of the negative impacts, politicians are talking to the public using a style familiar to anyone who has looked after children: forceful and direct appeals to stop engaging in unhelpful behaviours.
Stop hoarding. I can’t be more blunt about it. Stop it. … It’s one of the most disappointing things I’ve seen in Australian behaviour in response to this crisis.
Clearly, this is borne out of frustration. But this approach to behaviour change may do more damage than good for three reasons that are well-established in behavioural science: negative normative messaging, paternalistic messaging and untrusted messengers.
Australians don’t respond well to this style of delivery.Sam Mooy/AAP
Saying ‘don’t do’ something makes the behaviour more likely
It’s widely known in the behavioural sciences that our impressions of what other people are doing influence our own behaviour.
In research conducted by leading psychology researchers, including Wes Schultz and Robert Cialdini, people were informed how much energy their neighbours were using to see what the impact would be on their own usage.
Importantly, it influenced high- and low-energy users in different ways – high users reduced their usage, but low users increased theirs.
The lesson here is that people look for signals – both consciously and unconsciously – that tell them what behaviours are normal, and this perception is a powerful influence on their own behaviour.
So when leaders say “stop doing” something, people can interpret this as “lots of people are doing this, otherwise they wouldn’t be saying not to” and “because lots of people are doing it, it’s a normal thing to do.”
So the message can have the opposite effect to what is intended – the undesirable behaviour increases because it is perceived as normal.
One positive-focused campaign that worked
As behavioural researchers, we’ve used this established principle to craft a successful mass-media public campaign in Victoria.
Several years ago, the Victorian Department of Health and Human Services faced the challenge of unnecessary calls to the 000 emergency call centre rising faster than population growth.
Our background research showed that previous campaigns focusing on “don’t do this” messaging caused a rise in unnecessary calls to 000 because it promoted “negative norms”.
So, we focused on the opposite – a positive (do this) campaign, Save Lives. Save Ambulances for Emergencies. A follow-up campaign, Meet the Team highlighted alternatives to dialling 000 for minor ailments – pharmacies, the nurse-on-call service and local general practitioners.
In my mind it’s helped save lives … We saw a reduction in calls – around 50 less per day and that’s 10 ambulances that were therefore available.
Why ‘top-down’ messaging is ineffective
When politicians frame a message in a paternalistic way to constituents, it can also be ineffective for at least two reasons.
The first is the behaviour politicians are seeking to correct can seem perfectly reasonable and rational to the people doing it. Thus, berating people for such behaviour is likely to be ineffective. (For example, they might say, “my situation is different because…” or “I’m doing it for my family”.)
As a result, the message and/or the source would be dismissed. This may lead to people then dismissing future messages from politicians.
Another issue is that messaging done in a “top down” way threatens our autonomy – one of the most important human needs, and one directly related to well-being.
When autonomy is threatened, people react in various ways. These include expressions of distrust (“I don’t like it”) or doubt (“is this needed?”), avoidance of the message, and – most importantly in the COVID-19 context – efforts to reassert autonomy by defying change.
The paternalistic tone is compounded by the fact that unfortunately, politicians are not the flavour of the month.
So, what should the government be doing differently in its coronavirus messaging? Here are a few simple strategies.
First, emphasise positive behaviours. Thanking people for their good behaviour, which Berejiklian also did in her address, is a good start. This could also draw upon how well communities responded to the summer bushfire crisis. For example, a positive message might say:
Just as in the bushfires, Australians are looking after each other in the COVID-19 response. Many people are heeding advice to stay at home. This is saving lives.
Second, alter the paternalistic tone to more inclusive language that makes people feel part of the change. Governments and other messengers should amplify messages that say “together, we are fighting a virus to save lives”.
Finally, consider other messengers. For example, good proponents for non-hoarding behaviours may be older, well-respected Australians such as retired AFL player Ron Barassi or former Governor-General Quentin Bryce. The voices of respected figures like these may reach people that tune out anything politicians say.
This is an incredibly difficult time for governments and other leaders. They are getting the very best advice from medical experts, based on the best knowledge available, about what behaviours can flatten the curve of coronavirus infections.
Adding insights from behavioural science can help ensure the messages they deliver have the best possible effect.
Tonga will go into lockdown at 1am on Sunday morning, March 29.
There will also be a night time curfew from 8pm to 6am.
Prime Minister Pohiva Tu’i’onetoa said the lockdown was being ordered as a response to the World Health Organisation declaration that the Covid-19 coronavirus was a global pandemic and was accelerating.
Everybody is expected to stay home except when buying or supplying essential consumer goods for their families; obtaining medical supplies or seeking medical assistance; going to the bank or going to work for an essential service provider.
All public transport will stop, except where exempted.
– Partner –
All liquor licensed bars, restaurants, night clubs, retail bottle shops and liquor manufacturers must stop trading.
All licensed businesses and business activities shall be closed except supermarkets and retail shops selling essential needs and other exempted places.
All public facilities, events and gatherings such as education institutions, religious, kava clubs, bingo, sports clubs, gyms, sporting events and activities, celebrations of birthdays, marriages and other recreational or related gatherings shall be prohibited.
Funerals will be restricted to 10 people indoors and 20 people outdoors, with an authorised officer to be present throughout.
Exemptions Most levels of government have been recognised as essential services.
Businesses that can stay open include any entity or person involved in the supply, delivery, distribution and sale of food, beverage and other key consumer goods essential for maintaining the wellbeing of people.
This does not include restaurants, cafes or takeaway shops.
The National Reserve Bank of Tonga, banks, insurers, retirement and pension funds and other financial institutions, including any entity that contracts or provides services to them, may stay open.
Pharmacies and private health and dental clinics can remain open.
The list of exemptions also includes private security guards, telecom providers, as well as international development programmes.
The government has also granted an exemption to building and construction related to essential services and critical infrastructure and required to maintain human health and safety at home or work.
Courts and tribunals have also been exempted.
As Kaniva News reported yesterday, Tonga has already sealed its borders, banning international flights and cruise ships.
Philip Cass is an editorial adviser for Kaniva Tonga.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mike Lee, Professor in Evolutionary Biology (jointly appointed with South Australian Museum), Flinders University
While the world waits for an effective vaccine against COVID-19, we are relying heavily on social distancing – perhaps better termed “physical distancing” – to control the spread of the coronavirus.
Physical distancing works because COVID-19 spreads most efficiently when groups of people come into close contact, although there is some evidence the virus can also spread by touching contaminated surfaces.
Modelling suggests Australia can effectively suppress transmission and control the outbreak only if at least 80% of people practise good physical distancing.
At least 80% compliance with physical distancing measures is required to beat Covid-19.Mikhail Prokopenko/Univ. Sydney (extra labels added)
Government advice for implementing physical distancing has mainly urged people to isolate themselves in space: staying at least 1.5 metres apart, working from home, avoiding gatherings, and minimising travel.
However, effectively separating people in space is extremely challenging. Different people still need access to the same essential locations, such as shops, workplaces and health care facilities.
Temporal distancing
But physical distancing can be done in two ways: spatial distancing (separating people in space) and temporal distancing (separating people in time). Temporal distancing is an easy concept to grasp. Any time we take an early lunch to beat the crowds, or catch a later bus to avoid the commuter crush, we are using temporal distancing.
People are allowed entry into the same spaces – they just need to do so at different times. Of course, temporal distancing needs to be accompanied by fastidious hygiene to eliminate all possibility of COVID-19 transmission via surfaces.
Staggering strategy
Substantial and effective scheduling changes that can be made without too much inconvenience (or where the benefits clearly outweigh the costs) might include:
Reduced supermarket opening hours, as happened in parts of Italy, might not help physical distancing because it compresses customers into the same space during a shorter time window.
The concept of regular work hours could be relaxed a bit more. Morning people might choose to start at 7 am, while night owls could opt for 10 am.
Staggering the end of the school day 15 minutes either side of 3pm would substantially improve physical distancing.Michael Lee/Flinders Univ./SA Museum
Why it works
The diagram below shows how spatial and temporal distancing can work together to flatten the curve of infections. Imagine a randomly spread population of 1,000 people, one of whom is infected. With free movement, everyone becomes infected within a relatively short time. If we reduce movement by 80% (spatial distancing; dashed curve), the rate of infection is slowed. If we halve the time people spend exposed to one another (temporal distancing; dotted curve), the rate of infection also slows, but not as much. But if we combine both of these measures (red curve), the effect is strongest of all.
Different hypothetical COVID-19 infection scenarios compared to a do-nothing baseline. The first scenario considers a movement probability that’s only 20% of normal (spatial distancing). The second scenario halves the exposure time to represent temporal distancing. The final scenario includes both spatial and temporal distancing. R code to reproduce this graph can be obtained at: https://github.com/cjabradshaw/COVID19distancing.Corey Bradshaw/Flinders Univ.
Temporal distancing will come with economic and social costs. Working night shifts or irregular hours can cause health problems; organising childcare or work meetings outside ‘regular’ business hours could be challenging; and travel and outdoor activity at night have safety risks. These costs will have to be carefully weighed in any particular instance.
Even after the current pandemic is controlled, there will remain economic incentives for temporal distancing: boom-and-bust cycles are inefficient. Public transport, restaurants, telcos, electricity suppliers, and other service providers already offer off-peak discounts.
Cutting the numbers
Besides using both spatial and temporal distancing, we can further slow the virus by restricting the number of different people we encounter.
For example, while small-group personal fitness training is still allowed, having the same 10 people in each class is better than mixing and matching classes. This would help restrict any infections to a small group, and make contact tracing much easier.
Workplaces and schools could also consider keeping people in consistent teams rather than mixing them up, at least while distancing is required.
Reducing contacts between groups is even more important for older people. Age-stratified visiting or service times, such as the dedicated elderly shopping hours already in place in some supermarkets, might also help reduce transmission between younger people (who generally have higher mixing and infection rates) and older people (who are at greater risk of severe disease).
Social distancing will be a fact of life for months to come. So we need to do it as smartly and efficiently as possible.
Set into the tiles of the entrance to the boomtime-era Victorian Parliament is a message from the past that is as urgent as it is ancient:
Where no counsel is, the people fall: but in the multitude of counsellors there is safety.
The Old Testament language contains a powerful contemporary insight: multiple sources of advice provide better outcomes.
It reminds us as citizens of a long-established parliamentary democracy, of why we need to bother about parliament and why – not despite the corona-crisis, but because of it – we should recognise how it can help to get us through to the other side in one piece.
Instead, shockingly, we have allowed sittings of the Australian Parliament to be cancelled for the duration of the crisis. We are being deprived of the “safety” that comes from a multitude of counsellors.
Parliaments in representative democracies serve five complementary democratic values. Our parliament:
provides a vehicle for the interests and preferences of individual voters to be represented in aggregate decision-making (representation)
provides the ultimate source of authority for legislation (authorisation)
is an assembly for advocacy, debate and consideration (deliberation)
provides the means by which governments can be made and broken (executive legitimacy)
scrutinises executive actions (accountability).
As a result of this week’s one-day session of parliament, each of those functions has been set back.
Consider the extraordinary organisational arrangements behind the meeting of the House of Representatives that approved the government’s stimulus and safety net legislation.
Driven by a view that a full attendance of members would be inconsistent with social-distancing rules, the two major parties agreed to “pair” 30 Coalition MPs with 30 Labor MPs. This meant 60 elected representatives could stay away from Canberra: parliament could go ahead with a quorum, and the government’s narrow majority was not at risk.
This rump assembly suited everyone – except of course the roughly 6 million voters in those 60 electorates whose members were absent. In the interests of social distancing, their interests in being effectively represented were traded away without comment or explanation.
Its unrepresentative character is underlined by its low female attendance. Only about one-fifth of those present (18 out of 87) were women MPs. Labor, which prides itself on gender parity, selected only seven women in its contingent of 37. (However, all three female independent MPs were present.)
Even so, the reality of this sitting was that the pandemic created the perceived need for urgent legislative action. Parliament did that job with care and alacrity. Legislation was debated constructively and amendments were proposed and accepted, leading to improved outcomes. “Multitudes of counsellors” at work.
So the most shocking and damaging aspect of Monday’s parliament was the revised sitting calendar, dropped on parliament by Attorney-General Christian Porter. Having decided to delay the May budget until October, the government now saw no need for the 18 sitting days that had been scheduled for May and June. Tellingly, Porter did not spell out the implications: parliament would not be recalled until August 11.
During this 20-week period, we’re in a parliament-free zone. The executive – the Morrison government – governs alone.
This is the very time when parliament should be in session. There are four (at least) vital functions that parliament should perform in this time.
First, at a time when future legislative packages are likely, parliament will need to authorise them and perhaps, through deliberation and amendment, improve them.
Second, the executive has shouldered a complex implementation task and has now been resourced with a massive war chest to fight the virus. So the need for scrutiny and accountability increases. The Centrelink fiasco shows that, if nothing else. Parliament and parliamentary committees should continue in session.
Second, at a time when the big-picture strategy is still evolving, parliament has a key deliberative role in debating the strategic options to resolve the crisis.
Should we “flatten the curve” or – as John Daley of the Grattan Institute has argued – “stop and restart”? What are the costs of each course of action? What is the trade-off between the goals of public health and economic growth? And how are those costs being allocated across members of our society?
Third, at a time when we are still learning how to cope with this pandemic, and grappling to comprehend its immense social, cultural and economic costs, it is essential parliament play its representative role. The beauty of parliament’s electorate-based design is that members from around the nation can bring to national attention, however fleetingly and imperfectly, their local issues and insights and judgment.
Not all parts of Australia will experience this crisis in the same way. So local stories are not dispensable but vital: both the success stories and the stories of hardship, the local heroes and the silent Australians who are suffering from joblessness, isolation and trauma as well as the virus. “Multitudes of counsellors” with many stories to tell: even in this era of party dominance, that is still their job.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison opened the one-day parliamentary sitting on Monday with an invocation that we must not allow the coronavirus pandemic to change “who we are as Australians”. The challenge, he said, was bigger than anything since the second world war.
But by the end of the day his government had taken a giant step towards changing Australia’s identity, by adjourning parliament for more than four months.
If we are looking for comparisons with the second world war, it is worth remembering that the House of Representatives sat in Canberra throughout the war years. The parliament debated war strategy, deliberated on legislation and even, in 1941, defeated the government in a vote of no confidence.
Against the mighty achievements of the 16th parliament (1940-1943), the current parliament is a pale disappointment.
Every aspect of our lives has been affected by the coronavirus. The global economy has slowed, people have retreated to their homes and thousands have died or become seriously ill.
At this frightening stage of the crisis, it’s difficult to focus on anything else. But as the International Agency has said, the effects of coronavirus are likely to be temporary but the other global emergency – climate change – is not.
Stopping the spread of coronavirus is paramount, but climate action must also continue. And we can draw many lessons and opportunities from the current health crisis when tackling planetary warming.
Action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions must not be compromised by the coronavirus pandemic.EPA/MAST IRHAM
A ‘degrowing’ economy
S&P Global Ratings this week said measures to contain COVID-19 have pushed the global economy into recession.
Economic analyst Lauri Myllyvirta estimates the pandemic may have reduced global emissions by 200 megatonnes of carbon dioxide to date, as air travel grinds to a halt, factories close down and energy demand falls.
In the first four weeks of the pandemic, coal consumption in China alone fell by 36%, and oil refining capacity reduced by 34%.
In many ways, what we’re seeing now is a rapid and unplanned version of economic “degrowth” – the transition some academics and activists have for decades said is necessary to address climate change, and leave a habitable planet for future generations.
Degrowth is a proposed slowing of growth in sectors that damage the environment, such as fossil fuel industries, until the economy operates within Earth’s limits. It is a voluntary, planned and equitable transition in developed nations which necessarily involves an increased focus on the environment, human well-being, and capabilities (good health, decent work, education, and a safe and healthy environment).
Such a transformation would be profound, and so far no nation has shown the will to implement it. It would require global economies to “decouple” from carbon to prevent climate-related crises. But the current unintended economic slowdown opens the door to such a transition, which would bring myriad benefits to the climate.
The idea of sustainable degrowth is very different to a recession. It involves scaling back environmentally damaging sectors of the economy, and strengthening others.
Reduced air travel is helping drive global emissions down.James Gourley/AAP
A tale of two emergencies
Climate change has been declared a global emergency, yet to date the world has largely failed to address it. In contrast, the global policy response to the coronavirus emergency has been fast and furious.
There are several reasons for this dramatic difference. Climate change is a relatively slow-moving crisis, whereas coronavirus visibly escalates over days, even hours, increasing our perception of the risks involved. One thing that history teaches us about politics and the human condition in times of peril, we often take a “crisis management” approach to dealing with serious threats.
As others have observed, the slow increase in global temperatures means humans can psychologically adjust as the situation worsens, making the problem seem less urgent and meaning people are less willing to accept drastic policy measures.
The human ability to adapt to climate change can make it seem less urgent.CHAMILA KARUNARATHNE/EPA
Key lessons from coronavirus
The global response to the coronavirus crisis shows that governments can take immediate, radical emergency measures, which go beyond purely economic concerns, to protect the well-being of all.
Specifically, there are practical lessons and opportunities we can take away from the coronavirus emergency as we seek to tackle climate change:
Act early: The coronavirus pandemic shows the crucial importance of early action to prevent catastrophic consequences. Governments in Taiwan, South Korea and Singaporeacted quickly to implement quarantine and screening measures, and have seen relatively small numbers of infections. Italy, on the other hand, whose government waited too long to act, is now the epicentre of the virus.
Go slow, go local: Coronavirus has forced an immediate scale-down of how we travel and live. People are forging local connections, shopping locally, working from home and limiting consumption to what they need.
Researchers have identified that fears about personal well-being represent a major barrier to political support for the degrowth movement to date. However with social distancing expected to be in place for months, our scaled-down lives may become the “new normal”. Many people may realise that consumption and personal well-being are not inextricably linked.
Stimulus spending should be directed to clean energy.EPA
New economic thinking is needed. A transition to sustainable degrowth can help. We need to shift global attention from GDP as an indicator of well-being, towards other measures that put people and the environment first, such as New Zealand’s well-being budget, Bhutan’s gross national happiness index, or Ecuador’s social philosophy of buen vivir (good living).
Spend on clean energy:The International Energy Agency (IEA) says clean energy should be “at the heart of stimulus plans to counter the coronavirus crisis”.
The IEA has called on governments to launch sustainable stimulus packages focused on clean energy technologies. It says hydrogen and carbon-capture also need major investment to bring them to scale, which could be helped by the current low interest rates.
Governments could also use coronavirus stimulus packages to reskill workers to service the new “green” economy, and address challenges in healthcare, sanitation, aged care, food security and education.
More people are shopping locally during the pandemic.AAP/STEFAN POSTLES
What really matters is the same for all of us. It’s the health and safety of our friends, our family, our loved ones, our communities, our cities and our country. That’s what the coronavirus threatens, and that’s exactly what climate change does, too.
The coronavirus crisis is devastating, but failing to tackle climate change because of the pandemic only compounds the tragedy. Instead, we must draw on the lessons of coronavirus to address the climate challenge.
Most major corporate, academic and other networking events have been cancelled because of the risks of spreading the coronavirus while travelling or at the events themselves. This flurry of cancellations has even spawned a literally titled website: https://www.isitcanceledyet.com/. But the changes in behaviour now being forced upon us might benefit the planet in the long term as we find and get used to other ways of holding meetings.
The COVID-19 pandemic is driving the development of these alternatives to physical travel and meetings much more strongly than climate change had to date. With many countries closing their borders, limiting domestic travel and imposing restrictions on large gatherings, few conferences are likely to proceed in the coming months of 2020.
Traditional face-to-face conferences tend to be rather unsustainable affairs. Participants often fly from around the world to attend – usually accompanied by some carbon-intensive conference tourism along the way. For people who take just one long-haul flight per year, air travel is likely to be the single largest contributor to their carbon footprint.
If you make a long-haul flight to attend a meeting once a year that’s enough to greatly increase your carbon footprint.Rommel Canlas/Shutterstock
The dramatic decline in conferences and other meetings is likely to contribute to a significant drop in carbon emissions from air travel in 2020.
Conferences and meetings have come to be regarded as important parts of professional life. They allow us to connect with people and ideas in our field, and can be opportunities to advance new knowledge.
But with so many of us effectively “grounded”, what are the alternatives to attending traditional conferences and meetings?
Digital conferencing on the rise
The use of digital conferencing platforms has skyrocketed in the past few weeks as more and more people work from home and travel is restricted.
Leading US Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden even held a “virtual town hall” meeting recently as part of his campaign, although many users reported technical glitches and low-quality video plagued the experience.
Conferences are even taking place in virtual reality settings. These dedicated online conferencing environments are designed to mimic the venues conferences are often held in. These online events have large auditoriums, smaller “breakout rooms” and even socialising spaces to meet other participants through the use of digital avatars.
However, online conferencing need not be held in immersive 3D environments to be successful.
Exploring alternative formats
Most traditional conferences tend to be quite similar in format. They’re usually in a fixed location and run for two to five days. Presenters speak in front of live audiences on a fixed schedule.
Some digital conferences try to mimic this format, but others are trying to use the technology to open up the possibility for new types of event formats.
The “nearly carbon-neutral” conference model was initially developed to reduce the emissions associated with flying to conferences. Presentations are broadcast online over about two weeks. Participants can interact with presentations via accompanying text channels. The lectures and text messages are preserved online, creating an accessible archive.
Some events are being broadcast on the website Twitch. It’s a popular streaming platform where online gamers broadcast to – and interact with – surprisingly large audiences. This shows how conference organisers planning online events may need to look to communities who have been connecting and interacting “at a distance” long before any travel bans came into force.
The gaming community has led the way in developing mass meetings online.Facebook
Do we even need video?
It’s common for conferences and other events to have Twitter “backchannels” where participants post short messages about their experiences of attending the event to a dedicated hashtag. People who are unable to attend can view these messages to get a sense of “being there”.
The “Twitter conference” has taken this a step further. The digital event just involves participants posting on a dedicated hashtag at a set point in time.
Events like this show conferences can be stripped down to what they are ultimately about: connecting with people and ideas that we’re interested in.
One size won’t fit all
It’s unlikely any one event format will suit every purpose. Organisers will need to be creative in how they schedule and plan events. They’ll have to consider what they want to accomplish and what types of participation they want to have.
Digital conferencing may even give less mobile groups – people with disabilities or caring responsibilities or who are averse to flying – an opportunity to attend events they might have been unable to take part in before.
Ultimately, the restrictions on air travel and social gatherings will force us to adapt to new ways of “being together apart”, both professionally and personally. We may not be able to share a conference space with our peers and collaborators, but we can still connect with them. We might even learn more about what type of travel is really necessary, with the invaluable benefit of reducing the pace of climate change.
Words can help us imagine the world more deeply. Even as we retreat into our homes in this time of crisis, words can help us reach out to each other and pile up strength.
The Stella Prize is awarded each year to celebrate Australian women’s writing. This year’s shortlist brings together some of the best Australian writing in any genre. They are books about courage, strength, compassion and love. And they give us something of what we need – teaching us that to be alarmed is not to be cautious or careful; that to try to bear everything on one’s own is not necessarily to be strong.
These books can help us draw on our inner resources; to dig deep. Not only to find a point of calm, or, indeed, relief from boredom as the lockdown wears on – but more importantly, compassion, altruism, the capacity to cross social distances, reach out, help and support each other and our society in a time of crisis.
The Weekend by Charlotte Wood
When you read The Weekend you’ll probably learn some things about yourself that you didn’t know, and a few you’d rather not. This book takes a long look at women’s lives and friendships as we get old, at a time in life when everything we thought we knew – about ourselves, about our loved ones – is being thrown into doubt.
Allen & Unwin
Three grieving women gather together for Christmas to clean out the beach house that belonged to their friend Sylvie, who has died. There is Jude, a once famous restauranteur, who has spent her adult life in a love affair with a wealthy married man. Adele, a once-famous stage actress, who is newly impoverished, having just broken up with her partner Liz. She is yet to tell the others. Finally Wendy, a public intellectual in her waning years, grieving for her dead husband. Without Sylvie to balance them, tensions rise.
This book cuts like a knife through social pieties but never loses its humanity. In one particularly wicked scene, Adele conducts a “leisurely inspection” of her best friends’ washbags, casually laying bare their “private vulnerabilities”: who has constipation, who takes Valium, and who still uses age-defying face cream.
As the characters clean out the house of “depressing old things” that “nobody wanted” the tensions of grief and emotion pull them in unexpected directions. Old betrayals are unearthed, words can’t be taken back (“out it slithered in a disgusting mass”) and lives shatter.
Wood has a keen eye for the emotional havoc life wreaks, even – or especially – as we amble off into old age. Her observations are knife-sharp, often merciless, but also warm and deeply alive.
Language can take you deep inside experience – because words teach you not only how to speak, but also how to think and feel. A large part of Tara June Winch’s new novel is written as entries in a Wiradjuri dictionary, put together by the dictionary-maker Albert Gondiwindi. The first word – the “once upon a time for you” – is yarrany, Wiradjuri for a hickory acacia or spearwood tree, and Albert tell us “from it I once made a spear in order to kill a man”. Another word is baayanha meaning yield, which Albert calls “a funny word”. In English the word “yield” is the reaping, the things than man can take from the land”. But in Albert’s language “it’s the things you give to, the movement, the space between things”.
The action of The Yield centres on Albert’s granddaughter, August, who has returned to Country for her grandfather’s funeral after years in exile. Memories resurface, as August is entangled in circles of kinship, with aunties, nieces and cousins.
There are sombre notes. To August, everything is “browner, bone-drier”, and the evocative place name Massacre Plains reminds us that this is a site of invasion and violence. And then there’s the mystery of August’s missing sister, Jeddah.
The community is besieged by a mining development. Diggers roll into town, flanked by military-green Humvees. Winch charts the relationships between white activists and Indigenous rights groups, as they organise acts of resistance.
Aunty Betty and Aunt Carol Gibson get themselves locked against a fence in an act of protest. “Don’t fight back” says Mandy to August. “They can’t arrest us for sitting in”. Hours later rocks are hurled, water cannons discharge, and police squirt teargas. The past “filtered into their voices as they screamed together ‘Re-sist!‘”
Of course, Albert’s dictionary – “the old language, kept safe. Digitised. Captured forever” – is another kind of resistance. When August listens, she can hear the way “English changed their tongues, the formation of their minds”. This is also a book of hope in this resurgent language.
The opening story in Josephine Rowe’s collection is called Glisk, a Scots word meaning a split second: a flash; a single instant. It’s a wonderful opening title in a short story collection that seems to telescope, stack and compress time, propelling characters across continents, through stark or solemn landscapes, or pinning them down in small towns.
Rowe’s characters are mostly fleeing grief or trauma, trying to find solace in strange lands. In Glisk, protagonist Fynn returns after working in a whiskey distillery in the Northern Isles of Scotland. The title conjures the fatal car accident that drove Fynn from Perth. But it also describes an earlier accident in which Fynn and his siblings built a raft with foam and buckets so they could journey out to an island to see the bioluminescence in the ocean. Only that time, catastrophe had been avoided.
These are wonderful stories. In Chavez, an agoraphobic young woman grieving for a dead husband, stays at home watching terrorist videos, until a neighbour asks her to look after her dog, forcing her to engage with the world. In The Once-Drowned Man a taxi driver and her passenger head for the Canadian border, engaging in an oddly uncomfortable struggle over grief and hurt.
Rowe’s stories deftly capture the fleeting and precarious moments that can shape and place us, or move us – like Fynn – towards a faltering redemption, “with the dark folding over the top of him”, all in a glisk.
There Was Still Love by Favel Parrett
Parrett’s third novel opens with an image of extraordinary dislocation, evoked through all the “little brown suitcases … on trains, and on carts” or “strapped to the top of buses” carried by people whose lives have been uprooted by war. Inside the suitcases, not just clothes and toiletries, but “all they can hold … your heart, your mind, your soul”.
Favell’s novel tells the story of two sisters, Liska and Ludek, who are separated as teenagers, firstly by the Nazi occupation of Czechoslovakia and then by the Cold War. Ludek stays in Prague, while Liska travels to London and on to Melbourne.
Liska negotiates the problems of a second language, together with her husband’s straightened work opportunities. Ludek travels the world as a member of Prague’s Black Light Theatre, a child kept at home to ensure her return to life behind the Iron Curtain. Both raise children in vastly different worlds. Both build and sustain homes that are marked by love.
Parrett paints a picture of the sometimes troubling life lived in a communist state, coloured by vivid details of 1980s culture. The prose is lyrical, and the child’s perspective is diffuse with a kind of magic.
This is a book about strong women. It is a story about complicated family lives, longing for home, and the worlds women build – through love – for their families.
Just after her 40th birthday, Caro Llewellyn – recently arrived in New York, working her dream job as director of the PEN Festival for writers – collapsed as she ran through Central Park. In hospital a few days later, her neurologist told her that she had been diagnosed with multiple sclerosis, an illness associated with the central nervous system – chronic, debilitating and lifelong.
This memoir is a record of Llewellyn’s struggle not to be defined by her disability. Its title enviably encapsulates the things that glitter and shimmer and exhilarate in this book. A sense of breathless energy just leaps off the page. “I was a runner all my life,” Llewellyn writes. Not just long and short distance, but also hurdles and relay. “It didn’t matter what I ran, so long as I was spent when I crossed the finish line”.
This is a book about many things: Llewellyn’s career, the strength she draws from her charming and ingenious father who was wheelchair-bound, having been struck by polio at 20. He married twice, courting his first wife – a hospital nurse – from deep inside an iron lung. Llewellyn learned a lot from her parents, though not always strictly wise. They included, “carry on like absolutely nothing’s wrong”, “build an impenetrable wall around your weaknesses”, or best of all “no matter how impossible it seems, how long the odds, words and a good story can help you overcome every single thing stacked up against you”.
But, as Llewellyn writes, “The day my legs went numb on the running track in Central Park, every one of those lessons evaporated”. This is not a book about overcoming illness or disability. It ends – much like it starts – with Llewellyn’s gaze on the horizon, searching.
See What You Made Me Do by Jess Hill
Jess Hill’s book is a deeply felt exploration of institutional failure. It opens with Hill standing in her backyard “hanging clothes out to dry on a stunning summer night alive with the screeching of fruit bats”, in a place where she “felt content, peaceful; safe”. Then comes the stunning realisation that many women do not get to feel safe, not at night, and not in their own backyard.
It’s 2015, a year on from the morning Australians woke up to see Rosie Batty, “a solitary woman, raw with grief” on their television screens. In front of her was “a clutch of reporters who’d barely hoped for a statement”. Batty told the media about the murder of her son – 11-year-old Luke Batty – at the hands of his father. It was the scenario she’d warned about countless times, in courts and police stations, in front of lawyers and judges and to social workers. Her pleas had been dismissed and disbelieved.
See What You Made Me Do brings together stories of domestic violence and survival from all walks of life – from the affluent neighbourhoods of Sydney’s Bible Belt to struggling remote and regional communities. Hill investigates the social and psychological causes of domestic abuse and its terrifying consequences. She talks to frontline social workers, counsellors who work the hotlines, and police.
Hill’s book maps the contours of a twisted public debate, through which the rights of children and women to safety – to feel secure, to live free from violence – are repeatedly brought up short by politics.
The Stella Prize will be announced online by Julia Gillard from 8pm (AEST) on Tuesday 14 April 2020.
After the coronavirus nightmare has passed, harsh judgements will be made about which political leaders and health experts were on the right or wrong side in handling this crisis.
Politicians like to cast back to the global financial crisis and play the blame game. The stakes were very high then – this time they are multiplied.
And there are many with futures or reputations (or both) on the line.
This week we’ve seen a high-profile clash of opinions and expertise on display. Given the exponential rise in cases, the calls for everyone to be on the same page must be secondary to the imperative of getting the right strategy.
One school of thought says, put health first and go nuclear now, with a full lockdown. The other school favours a stepped approach, tightening the screws but trying to keep as much economic activity alive for as long as possible.
Victorian premier Daniel Andrews (Labor) and NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian (Liberal) are hardliners. Victoria’s Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton spoke out forcefully this week. The two premiers have given notice their states are set to move to lockdown (where people would be confined to their homes). Jacinda Ardern has already taken New Zealand there.
With the divide crossing partisan lines, Andrews and Berejiklian are working closely together.
Scott Morrison is the prime advocate of the gradual approach. Resisting a full lockdown, he argued strongly this week he didn’t want to throw people out of jobs where it was possible to avoid doing so, and that he feared the consequences of the stresses the economic crisis would put on families.
For Morrison, it’s a balancing act, in the face of “a twin crisis, a crisis on a health front, which is also causing a crisis in the economy as well. And both of them can be equally as deadly, both in terms of the lives of Australians and their livelihood.”
Labor has aligned with the position taken by Andrews and Berejiklian. From the start, the opposition has been urging faster action; this week Anthony Albanese sharpened his criticism.
He disputed “there is a tension between dealing with the health issues and dealing with the economic issues. That is a false distinction.
“The government has a responsibility to deal with this health emergency. That is the first priority. Then, it needs to deal with the economic consequences of the health emergency and the appropriate response. It needs to be done in that order.”
Those who argue Labor is just playing politics and should be sticking to the government line are off beam. This is a policy crisis too and policy arguments are legitimate and indeed necessary.
Among federal officials, the secretary of Home Affairs Mike Pezzullo is reportedly a hard liner.
Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy (who has been appointed secretary of the Health department) and his deputy Paul Kelly have been strong public defenders of the gradualist path.
Yet in the health world, many in academia are advocates of a immediate lock down.
The Prime Minister has found his hand being forced by the states (as in Sunday’s argy bargy on shutdowns) or bypassed (on schools).
Morrison has been a firm advocate of keeping the schools open, arguing it’s vital so health workers can continue in their jobs, and also because children shouldn’t lose a year of education.
This week Berejiklian advised parents to keep children home, while Andrews brought forward the school holidays. Western Australia is now encouraging remaining at home as new arrangements are prepared. Next week Queensland schools will be “student free” (apart from children of “frontline workers”). South Australia is likewise planning for the future.
Academic experts are at the centre of the policy battle, and this carries its own politics.
Take a paper, commissioned by the federal government, reporting the advice of 22 experts from Group Of Eight universities.
Dated Sunday, it put forward two views.
“One view, influenced by our position on the epidemic curve, the limitations of wide community testing and surveillance and the experience of other countries, argues for a comprehensive, simultaneous ban across Australia.
“The other, influenced by the fact that a large number of our cases are a direct/ contacts of importation (which have now been stopped), influenced by the large variation in case density across Australia and the adverse consequences of closure and the sustainability and compliance to an early closure argued for a more proportionate response”.
The first view was “a dominant position in this group”, the paper said. What it didn’t add was that this was the overwhelming view.
When asked about the paper at a Tuesday news conference, both Morrison and Murphy were noticeably uneasy. Morrison flicked the question to Murphy who said: “Any measures we place, we believe need to be for the long haul. The idea that you can put measures in place for four weeks and suddenly stop them and the virus will be gone is not credible. So we are very keen to put as restrictive measures in place without completely destroying life as we know it”.
Another paper circulating, including to senior business figures, argues “the case for a short, sharp lockdown in Australia”; it has been contributed to by Raina MacIntyre, who heads UNSW’s Biosecurity Program; Louisa Jorm, director of the Centre for Big Data Research in Health, UNSW; Tim Churches, health data scientist at UNSW; and Richard Nunes-Vaz, from Torrens Resilience Institute at Flinders University.
“We are deeply concerned about the prospect of Australia losing control of the epidemic to a degree which would exceed health system capacity and result in far greater numbers of cases, more health and economic losses, and a longer time to societal recovery,” the paper says.
“A short, sharp lockdown of 4-8 weeks will improve control of the epidemic in Australia, reduce case numbers and bring us to a more manageable baseline from which phased lifting of restrictions and economic recovery can occur.
“If we fail to do this, we face continued epidemic growth, potential failure of the health system, and a far longer road to recovery.”
The lockdown would be used to ramp up a massive testing operation to identify and isolate cases, enabling the subsequent ease-off to be done more safely.
On Thursday the federal government’s Deputy Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly suggested challenges to official advice made for public confusion and should be kept behind closed doors.
Not if the challengers turn out to be right.
Morrison received praise in the early days for his handling of the crisis. Now he and his closest health advisers are increasingly finding themselves the odd men out.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By C Raina MacIntyre, Professor of Global Biosecurity, NHMRC Principal Research Fellow, Head, Biosecurity Program, Kirby Institute, UNSW
Along with tracing contacts of cases, travel bans and social distancing, testing is one of the four key planks in our pandemic response to SARS-CoV2, the virus that causes COVID-19.
Widespread testing has been the key to reducing transmission in South Korea, which was able to use only limited lockdowns because it tested at a mass scale.
Both South Korea and Japan tested people at high risk who didn’t have symptoms. On the Diamond Princess ship, for example, which was quarantined for two weeks in the port of Yokohama, Japanese testers found 634 people were infected and of these, 328 had no symptoms.
In the United States, asymptomatic spread has likely driven the silent growth of an epidemic that was only realised when the health system began overloading. We’ve seen the same in Italy and Spain, which also restrict testing.
Australia’s federal government has expanded the testing criteria beyond just returned travellers and those with close contact with an infected person.
But testing remains restricted to people with symptoms and doesn’t go far enough. Like South Korea, we should also be testing people without symptoms who are in high risk groups, such as close contacts, evacuees from cruise ships, and health workers who request a test.
How do we test for coronavirus?
There are two kinds of laboratory tests. One is a PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test, which detects fragments of the virus RNA in the sputum (phlegm), throat, nose or other body fluid.
The other is a blood test for antibodies to the virus. This can identify people who have been exposed to the virus and produced antibodies, whose swab may be negative.
Currently only PCR tests are widely available, but blood tests (serology) should be available soon.
The coronavirus testing program in Australia currently uses PCR tests, or swab tests.David Crosling/AAP
PCR tests have some shortcomings. Throat swabs in particular can give you a false negative, so it may be necessary to repeat the test in someone who seems to have COVID-19. A nasal swab or sputum (phleghm) specimen is more likely to be positive in an infected person.
The PCR tests will only be transiently positive, while the serology remains positive once you have been infected. Blood tests are less likely to miss infected people, including children and young people. However, a blood test doesn’t tell you if someone is infectious at that time. PCR and serology can be used together for optimal results.
Rapid, point-of-care tests which use a swab and have results available in 45 minutes are especially useful in outbreaks in closed settings such as aged care facilities or prisons. These aren’t yet available in Australia.
The government has ordered 1.5 million rapid tests which use blood. But it takes five days for a patient to develop antibodies and become positive to that kind of test. Only a PCR-based test can give an early diagnosis.
Chest CT scans were also used in China for rapid diagnosis because of the problem with PCR being negative.
Australian testing guidelines
The current Australian guidelines, which were expanded yesterday (March 25), restrict testing to people with a fever or respiratory illness who:
are in a high-risk setting where at least two COVID-19 cases have been confirmed, such as an aged care facility, prison, boarding school, detention centre, Indigenous community or military base
are being hospitalised with pneumonia or a respiratory illness of unknown cause
have illness clinically consistent with COVID-19 in a geographically localised area with elevated risk of community transmission, as defined by health authorities
are health care workers, aged or residential care workers.
While these guidelines have expanded the testing criteria, they still restrict testing to people with symptoms.
Australia has a high rate of testing compared to many other countries, and a low positive rate.
But we don’t have data on silent transmission that could be bubbling under the surface when infected people don’t have any symptoms or have very mild illness.
On February 14, the Spanish health minister laughed and told the Spanish people there was no COVID-19 in Spain:
Six weeks later the country has around 40,000 cases and a health system in collapse.
We should be testing people without symptoms who fall into the groups outlined in the current Australian guidelines, so that we do not miss asymptomatic cases in high risk groups.
This would include asymptomatic people who are: close contacts of people with COVID-19; evacuees from cruise ships; health or aged care workers who request a test; as well as asymptomatic people in closed outbreak settings (aged care centre, prison, boarding school, detention centre, Indigenous community or military base).
We also need to scale up capacity
Social distancing measures also need to be accompanied by scaled-up testing capabilities including:
expanded capacity for PCR (swab) testing
the ability to repeat testing (at least three tests) for suspected cases when the initial PCR (swab) test is negative
drive-through testing sites to make testing accessible and safer for infection control
increased capacity for Australian laboratories to conduct blood tests at mass scale
continued investment and development of rapid point of care and commercial serological tests.
New Zealand has – almost – made it through the first day of the national month-long lockdown, and according to Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, things have gone “as smoothly as could be expected”.
Speaking to media today, Ardern highlighted just how much of a feat that was. The lockdown – unprecedented in New Zealand – was only announced on Monday.
Police Commissioner Mike Bush said this morning that most people were abiding by the rules, but noted a few had not been complying.
“We’ve engaged with a few of those, given them some advice … you won’t believe it but some people were saying they were unaware of these conditions,” he said.
“People were out driving around, just having fun, people were visiting ATMs, things like that.”
Normally bustling city streets were empty, there was no rush hour and only a handful of people could be seen out and about as the country entered day one of the lockdown.
NZ total of infections now 283 As the day progressed, the Ministry of Health revealed 78 new cases of Covid-19, bringing the total to 283. And 27 people have now recovered from the coronavirus.
Seven people are now in hospital – three in Wellington, two in Nelson, one in Waikato and one in Northland – but none of them are in intensive care.
Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield said the new results included a number of clusters – at Marist College, the World Hereford conference in Queenstown, a wedding in Wellington, a group trip to the US, a number of people in Hawke’s Bay that are associated with someone on the Ruby Princess cruise ship, and a rest home in Hamilton.
This article is republished by the Pacific Media Centre under a partnership agreement with RNZ.
If you havesymptomsof the coronavirus, call the NZ Covid-19 Healthline on 0800 358 5453 (+64 9 358 5453 for international SIMs) or call your GP – don’t show up at a medical centre.
The immediate impact of the coronavirus shutdown is striking in its magnitude, its speed and its concentration on a small set of industries.
My attempt to identify where the virus and the shutdown will have the biggest effect suggests that in February 2020 about 2.7 million workers were employed in the most exposed industries.
And while it won’t be possible to know for sure until April 16 when we get data from the Bureau of Statistics on the labour force in March, I believe it’s reasonable to think the jobs of about 900,000 are already under threat.
Who is most at risk?
In the table below I list those whom I think are most at risk.
For one group of about 1.4 million workers – primarily in industries involving eating out, entertainment, recreation, accommodation and air travel – the loss of work is the inevitable result of government shutdowns.
Another group, comprising about 900 thousand workers, are in retail trades (non-food) and personal services, where the effect on jobs is coming from consumers cutting spending apart from on essential items.
Workers in both at-risk groups are predominantly young. More than half are under 35 years of age. Six out of seven are employees. About one in every seven is an owner/manager or works in a family business.
A slightly higher proportion are female than male. They are evenly split between full-time and part-time.
Some industries will grow
Some industries are seeing rapid increases in demand due to the coronavirus. They include the retail grocery trade and associated logistic services, and the supply of office essentials needed to work at home.
In a relatively short period there is also likely to be an increase in demand from the health care and health services industries.
Other areas where increased demand seems likely are the home delivery of goods bought online, cleaning services and services usually undertaken by volunteers and government agencies who are occupied dealing with COVID-19.
The total workforce will shrink
So far there has been little impact of the supply of workers, but it will happen.
It is beginning to occur as schools and childcare centres close and workers withdraw in order to care for their children, and it is accentuated by parents not wanting to risk outsourcing the task to grandparents.
In the coming weeks, there will be further hits to labour supply as illness from COVID-19 causes workers to need to take leave and other workers withdraw to provide care for family members who become ill.
It is difficult to be precise about the magnitude of withdrawal from the labour market, but it is potentially large.
To start with, most of the impact is likely to come from withdrawal for caring or to avoid illness.
As an indication of the potential scale of withdrawal, in 2019 there were 1.21 million families with children aged from 0-9 years in which either a sole parent or both parents were in paid work.
In 2016 there were 634,500 people aged 65 to 84 doing voluntary work.
Workers becoming ill might also have a substantial impact on labour supply.
Under a (hopefully pessimistic) scenario that COVID-19 continues its current rate of growth over the next three weeks, with those infected in the previous two weeks then unable to work, this would be about 67,500 persons out of work due to illness.
COVID-19 has already had a dramatic effect on employment – that much is evident from news images of queues at Centrelink.
Further impacts are almost certain in coming weeks.
The Timor-Leste authorities have to improve significantly the conditions in which journalists are working to cover the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic.
As the only foreign journalist in East Timor, I support the recommendations made today by the two associations of Timorese journalists.
In a statement sent to Lusa ndewsagency, the Association of Journalists of Timor Lorosa’e (AJTL) and the Timor-Leste Press Union (TLPU) have accused the country’s health authorities of not providing “adequate or credible information” over the past few weeks, making it difficult difficult to communicate important news to the society.
There has been total irresponsibility, including the Ministry of Health, in the way they apply themselves, and in the way they are concerned, and over the rule of social distance.
– Partner –
I have mentioned this in the past, but it is vital that all the institutions change the way we work. Especially now that the state of emergency statement is coming.
My recommendations I make these general recommendations:
Announce press conferences in time;
Distribute written communications every time;
Communicate in more than one language so that the information can reach everyone in Timor-Leste;
Distribute information at the same time to all journalists by Whattsapp or email;
Ensure there is a spokesman to talk to the media that is always the one who transmits official information;
Prepare to communicate in the distance with the media in case of isolation needs increase;
Guarantee regular briefings where the information can be properly shared and where all questions can be asked and answered calmly. (Often journalists are in doubt that they represent the doubts of the population and they seek clarifications. Rejecting questions, as has been done by officials, is not acceptable.);
Monitor social media to report fake news;
Make information transparent to ensure everything is clear and people can get ready;
Distribute all decisions that come out of the government, not only in the form of the short and insufficient communications of the Council of Ministers or in statements to journalists, but with detailed documents, especially in the state of emergency; and
Ensure that journalists are protected and are not obliged to take on risky situations, such as having to share microphones to ask questions.
Collaboration can be useful between the authorities and journalists, but journalists are independent and cannot be used to pass on government information, especially when the information is not clear, or – as has already happened – it is wrong, to the rest of the world.
The photo I publish today has been taken in Timor’s Parliament. But it could be from so many other situations in the last few weeks.
We can’t keep working like this.
Antonio Sampaio is the Lusa newsagency correspondent in Dili. This personal view on journalist safety was expressed on his Facebook page.
More than one billion young people around the world are now shut out of classrooms due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Even in Australia where many schools remain open, many parents have chosen to keep their kids home.
Some Australian non-government schools have already shut their doors and moved classes online. Victoria, South Australia and Tasmaniahave ended the term early so teachers can prepare for online learning in the second term. Queensland has closed schools and moved to online classes.
For some children, learning online will be little more than an inconvenience. For others however, this will further magnify their learning disadvantage.
The digital divide
About 87% of Australians can access the internet at home. But only 68% of Australian children aged 5 to 14 living in disadvantaged communities have internet access at home, compared to 91% of students living in advantaged communities.
Students who have unlimited broadband internet at home might do just fine in this new situation. But students living remotely whose internet is intermittent and not fast or reliable enough to cope with online learning, and those in large families sharing limited digital devices, may get left behind.
When you add in additional family stress like parents facing sudden unemployment, extra anxiety and little experience supporting their children’s learning, the educational outcomes for vulnerable children will almost certainly go backwards.
A number of experts are worried about this worsening inequality. Education Professor Vaille Dawson of the University of Western Australia told us:
even when they are at school, for some students the only wi-fi connection is in the principal’s office. For those children who may be off the grid, already disengaged from their schooling or from vulnerable families, the outcome may be irreparable.
We have been conducting an ongoing research project, Growing Up Digital Australia, to understand how the widespread use of media and digital technologies is impacting the well-being, health and learning of Australian children.
The first findings from our as yet unpublished 2019 data confirm teachers and principals see family poverty as a key factor in accessing technology that students need for learning. More than 80% of teachers thought students’ socio-economic circumstances impact on their access to technology needed for learning. And one-third of teachers directly observed that children living in poverty had less access to technology than their more well-resourced peers.
This situation is likely to get far worse as the digital learning environment becomes the main option for schooling. Ideally, we would have addressed the existing digital divide before thrusting all students into it.
So, here is what we can do
Inequality in Australian education is increasing. School education, according to the OECD and UNICEF, is not treating Australian children fairly.
Political rhetoric to date has failed to recognise the existing educational inequities, especially in disadvantaged communities and many remote parts of the country. Assuming all children can benefit from learning digitally at home inherently privileges the wealthy and further entrenches a multi-tiered educational model.
We are witnessing a massive global social experiment with children and how they deal with this new way of learning.
Governments should act swiftly to lessen the inconvenient impact caused by this unplanned experiment in mass online learning. Assuming children will not go back to school anytime soon, there should be particular interventions to benefit the most needy families.
Some departments have pledged to address this by mailing out learning materials and offer skeletal staff to support the most vulnerable learners. Other ideas might include a rostered system of computers and digital devices children need to enable their study at home.
Authorities could also relax curriculum requirements and give parents autonomy to spend time with children on alternative educational activities. Music, physical activity and free play outdoors whenever possible can be equally educational for children’s learning and well-being as study with a computer indoors.
We are slowly learning the best way to cope with the threat of COVID-19 is through the lens of “we” rather than “I”. Some schools are much further along the journey in preparing for children learning online without coming to school every day.
Our schools have an opportunity to openly share resources, learning solutions and materials to support the learning of all students, regardless of education sector, social or economic background or location.
One thing governments should not do is to make this situation harder than it already is. They should not tell parents and teachers that missing three or four months of invaluable learning time and tests in schools means they must compress all that lost time into a month and catch up.
Instead, this could be an opportunity to level the playing field; for governments to learn some lessons about how education could be designed more equitably.
The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which causes the disease COVID-19, has infected nearly half a million people and taken the lives of more than 21,200.
No person in Australia is more qualified to speak on the science of this global pandemic than Professor Peter Doherty. Professor Doherty was awarded the Nobel prize for medicine in 1996 for his work studying the immune system. The Doherty Institute, now at the forefront of Australian research on the coronavirus, bears his name.
In this episode of Politics with Michelle Grattan, Professor Doherty discusses the particulars of the pandemic – including how controlling this pandemic differs from that of other illnesses:
“It’s a problem of dealing with a respiratory infection,” he said.
“It’s different from, say, AIDS. We can all modify the way we behave in the sexual sense, but we can’t decide not to breathe. And so it’s very important that we keep that social distancing right at the front of our mind. In fact, one of the best pieces of advice I’ve seen is, think [as if] you’ve already got it and you don’t want to transmit it to anybody else. And if you think like that, you’ll protect yourself. ”
Scientists from The Doherty Institute were the first to successfully grow the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from a patient sample. According to Professor Doherty, a COVID-19 vaccine could be available within 12 to 18 months.
“There are a few new concerns … that some vaccine formulations, not all, but some could give you what we call a bit of immunopathology,” he said.
“That is, they might actually make [the illness] a little bit worse or contribute to some bad, bad situation. So we have to be careful with the vaccine. But the first vaccine product from the University of Queensland, I’m told, has already gone into lab animals.”
Listen to the full podcast for more from Professor Doherty, including how his research and institution is furthering the vaccination effort, how the virus affects the body and the future of the crisis.
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Less than a fortnight after the first anniversary of the Christchurch mosque shootings, and on the first day of New Zealand’s four-week COVID-19 lockdown, the Australian man responsible for the attacks has surprised the nation by pleading guilty to all charges.
As well as being guilty of 51 counts of murder and 40 counts of attempted murder, he becomes the first person convicted of terrorism in New Zealand.
Up until now, the accused man – who The Conversation has chosen not to name – had pleaded not guilty to all charges and was due to stand trial from June 2. But the guilty plea means a trial is no longer necessary and the process now moves to the sentencing phase.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said she “let out a massive sigh of relief” when she heard the news of his guilty pleas, and that she expected many New Zealanders would also feel:
a certain sense of relief: that the whole nation, but particularly our Muslim community, are being spared from a trial that could’ve otherwise have acted as a platform.
Nothing will bring their loved ones back. But this is a small reprieve.
But families of victims and the wider New Zealand public look likely to face a long wait before the Australian terrorist is sentenced, as the court processes have been disrupted by the pandemic response. The judge has indicated that sentencing will only take place when all victims who want to attend can be present.
A note released by the judge, Justice Mander, records that the defendant intimated earlier this week that he wished to plead guilty to all charges and then confirmed that in writing.
Criminal courts continue operating for urgent matters during the lockdown and the Christchurch High Court used audio-visual links for the defendant and his lawyers at the change of plea hearing. Only a small number of media representatives and senior members of the Christchurch Muslim community were present.
No date has been fixed for the sentencing hearing – and this is sensible. Justice Mander has asked for reports on the defendant prior to sentencing.
jacindaardern/Instagram
Aside from any difficulties for probation officers preparing their advice to the judge, sentencing hearings also provide an opportunity for victims and families of victims to present victim impact statements.
These are usually presented orally in cases of serious crime. Managing this process would have been difficult in normal circumstances and is now even more complex during a pandemic lockdown, but the judge has made clear he hopes this can happen.
Speaking after the news of the guilty pleas, Police Commissioner Mike Bush said some police staff who were working on the prosecution of the mosque attacker would now be freed up to help with New Zealand’s COVID-19 response.
The maximum sentence for attempted murder is 10 years, but for a terrorist act or murder it is life imprisonment. The Sentencing Act 2002 requires a life sentence for murder unless that would be manifestly unjust. In this case, there is no doubt the defendant will be sentenced to life in prison.
Some countries add various determinate sentences together to make long sentences, possibly of hundreds of years, but this practice is not followed in New Zealand.
But there is a real question for the judge. A life sentence has two parts: there is an outer limit (the rest of the defendant’s life) and a minimum term that has to be served as punishment. If the Parole Board concludes that the risk to the public is low enough, a person can be released once they have served the minimum term – so this is important.
The Sentencing Act requires a minimum term of at least 17 years for a terrorist murder or for murder involving two or more victims. But the judge is required to look at accountability for harm to victims, denunciation, deterrence and protection of the public and decide whether these factors require that no minimum term be set.
There has been no such whole life sentence in New Zealand to date. But I expect Justice Mander will give it serious consideration, notwithstanding the guilty plea, which is often given credit at the sentencing stage.
A prisoner is in the custody of the Department of Corrections. The defendant, an Australian self-declared white supremacist, has been in the highest security category and subject to additional restrictions since his arrest. It will be a long time, if ever, before he is managed outside high-security conditions.
There are various treaties relating to the transfer of serving prisoners, but New Zealand is not a party to them. It requires foreign prisoners to serve their sentence and then deports them. New Zealanders who are sentenced abroad cannot serve their sentence here.
But it is generally accepted that the executive can make arrangements on an individual basis in special circumstances. It remains to be seen if the New Zealand and Australian governments make relevant arrangements.
The COVID-19 pandemic is terrifying for many of us, but people with a disability have more reason to worry than most.
People with a disability often have underlying health conditions that make them more susceptible to serious illness or death if they contract COVID-19. They may also be more at risk of contracting the virus if they have disability workers entering their home.
The federal government has made several policy announcements to protect older Australians in aged care facilities, hospitals and GP clinics, but we’re yet to see the same consideration for people with disabilities.
One in five people in Australia has a disability. Of these, more than three-quarters report a physical disability, although many report multiple types.
Evidence for previous pandemics shows that health inequities worsen during epidemics as more marginalised communities have fewer resources (financial and social) and struggle to access necessary supplies and services.
On top of this, health information is rarely presented in an accessible format for children and adults with intellectual disabilities, such as Easy English (a style of writing that’s simple and concise) and/or pictorial formats.
People with disabilities must not be de-prioritised
At a time when there is unprecedented demand for health services, we need to ensure people with disability don’t miss out.
Health services can be inadequate for people with disability at the best of times because of barriers such as physical inaccessibility, lack of understanding of a person’s disability, and cost.
We’ve already seen reports around the world that older people and those with disability have been de-prioritised in health services.
In Italy, the professional organisation that sets guidelines for intensive care has stated health resources should prioritise those with the highest chance of “therapeutic success”.
If people with disability have pre-existing health conditions, or if their particular impairment means their chance of recovery is diminished, they may be de-prioritised for intensive care.
Last week the Australia and New Zealand Intensive Care Society updated its guidelines for doctors, acknowledging that when the coronavirus pandemic peaks, difficult decisions may need to be made.
It recommends doctors make decisions based on the probable outcome, whether people have underlying health conditions, and the “burden of treatment” for the patient and their family.
The guidelines don’t mention people with disabilities, but it’s easy to see how an assessment of the “burden of treatment” could include people with intellectual disability becoming upset by treatment, or taking more time to deliver.
For people who require support with activities of daily living (dressing, bathing, meal preparation, and so on) it’s likely they have one or possibly several care workers who will move in and out of their home every day.
Disability care workers’ movement across multiple homes makes it likely that some of them will acquire and transmit COVID-19 to the people they care for.
Many of those working in care roles are among some of the lowest paid in our society and many are employed on a casual basis. If they don’t work a shift, they will not be paid.
This means we might be incentivising people who desperately need income to take risks with their health and the health of the people they’re supporting.
Many people with disabilities don’t have the option of self-isolating.Shutterstock
Some providers are choosing to cancel shifts and not put their staff at risk. This is one way to protect staff, but will leave some people with a disability in real need.
Even before this pandemic there were disability workforce shortages. This is likely to increase as the number of infections rises.
What should we do?
The following actions are urgently needed to protect people with a disability as the pandemic progresses:
the establishment of an expert committee with members who have expertise in the disability and health sectors to advise government
a new MBS item to develop COVID-19 health care plans with children and adults with complex disabilities, so they know how to implement social distancing and hygiene measures, and how to access tests and treatment
a dedicated coronavirus information hotline for people with disabilities, families and disability services, staffed by people with deep understanding of disability issues and underlying health issues
significant supplies of personal protective equipment (such as masks, gloves and gowns) for the disability support workforce to reduce transmission
government guarantees of income for care workers who may be sick, have caring responsibilities or have their shifts cancelled
the mobilisation of a broader disability workforce, for example by drawing on allied health students.
These actions won’t address all the inequities people with disabilities face, but they will be a good start.
Right now, the best thing we can do to help stop the alarming spread of coronavirus is to stay home. But that doesn’t mean we can’t find pleasure in nature or help the environment.
Here, a behavioural science expert, a botanist, an environment media expert and an entomologist suggest easy ways to connect with nature in your garden (or on your balcony) while staying safe in isolation.
Many of these activities can be done with materials found at home. If you don’t have any plants, many nurseries and gardening suppliers will home deliver. Or go online to order plants, seeds, potting mix, gloves and tools.
Finally, try swapping cuttings or sharing gardening tools with neighbours – adhering to social distancing and other health guidelines, of course.
Get creative with containers
Melissa Hatty – Behavioural science doctoral researcher, Monash University
Gardening is great for mental and physical health. And it’s possible to do in just about any space, from growing alfalfa sprouts in cotton wool to building an urban permaculture garden, and everything in between. If space is limited, many herbs, vegetables and fruit trees can thrive in containers.
Container gardening is also an opportunity to express yourself. Art is useful for processing thoughts and intense emotions, while creativity has been linked to a more positive mood. And while we’re stuck at home, creativity expressed through containers might also starve off boredom and loneliness associated with prolonged isolation.
Try planting in an old pair of shoes, jeans, or furniture. Ask friends or neighbours if they have old items you can use to turn into planters. And your upcycling will also be helping the environment, turning trash into something useful.
Backyard science
Judith Friedlander – Environment media researcher, University of Technology Sydney, and PlantingSeeds founder
If ever there was an opportunity to embrace citizen science, it’s now. Everyday people, many with more time on their hands working from home, can still add value to scientific data and repositories, educating themselves all the while and connecting with a like-minded community.
And you can do it from your backyard, or even from gazing out the window, sending data, images, audio files and more to scientists who need it.
Try Birddata – BirdLife Australia’s web portal – which works to collaboratively and scientifically collect data from people to protect Australia’s birds. Users engage with an interactive map to identify their area and input information on bird observations and the date observed.
What birds can you spot outside your window?Matthew Willimott, CC BY
Another is Questagame, a mobile game that gets players outdoors to engage with, learn about and help protect life on earth (while keeping your distance from other people). Users can submit sightings of animals, plants and fungi, or identify the sightings of other players.
You can find other citizen science programs here. Many, like Digivol, can be done from your computer if going outside isn’t an option. Created by the Australian Museum and ALA, Digivol is a crowdsourcing platform where users volunteer to transcribe data from natural history collections.
Make mulch
Greg Moore – Botanist, University of Melbourne
We hardly ever get around to deadwooding the trees and shrubs in our gardens, but with many of us isolating at home, we might have time.
Deadwooding is when you remove all the dead little twigs and branches from your trees and shrubs. Your plants will look better and healthier, and you’ll have removed the risk of this dead material causing damage in the next wind storm.
But the dead material you’ve removed is also great as a part of a good mulch. The best mulch is of mixed particle size – a blend of fine and coarse material and everything in between. That’s where your deadwood plays its role.
You can use dead plant matter in your backyard to create mulch.Maddy Baker/Unsplash, CC BY
Fine twigs break down easily, while the coarse material (up to 50 millimetres in diameter and 30-50 centimetres long) such as larger branches or parts of stems, let in air and water when it rains, and lasts for a few years.
Your mulch should be 75-100mm thick. And if you do it now, when you come to check on your mulch in a year’s time, you will have a healthier garden when, as we hope, the current troubles are all behind us.
Plant for winter pollinators
Tanya Latty – Entomologist, University of Sydney
Although we usually associate bees and other pollinators with summer, in warmer countries like Australia, many types of pollinating insect are active throughout the winter months.
Now, in autumn and while we’ve bunkered down, is the best time to plant a garden for winter-active pollinators like hoverflies, honeybees and (on warmer days) stingless bees.
Pollinator-friendly flowers can supercharge natural pest control by attracting beneficial predatory insects. Hoverflies, for example are garden superheroes that pack a double punch; the adults are pollinators, while the larvae are voracious aphid predators.
Choose pollinator-friendly plants with different flowering times so that there’s something in bloom through the winter months.
Brassicas like broccoli, bok choi and mustard greens produce flowers that are a favourite food of many insect pollinators – simply leave some of your harvest to flower. Salvias and Basils are also good choices that will attract a variety of beneficial insects.
But don’t forget to plant native flowers like coastal rosemary, Hardenbergia violacea (“Happy Wanderer”), Wattles , and Grevilia’s (especially “Honey Gem” and “Flamingo”) to support some of our pickier native insects.
The coronavirus is not only affecting the way we live, it’s also dramatically affecting the way we die.
In Australia, Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced that funerals would be limited to a maximum of ten people to limit the spread of COVID-19. However, the states may have some leeway in permitting an extra one or two.
Funeral directors say they are concerned about the availability of crucial health supplies such as masks, hand sanitiser and body bags.
In Italy, people with COVID-19 reportedly “face death alone”, with palliative care services stretched to the limit, morgues inundated, funeral services suspended, and many dead unburied and uncremated.
As Australia’s coronavirus response moves into a critical period, these examples remind us that how we care for the dead must be part of our pandemic plan.
It is extremely difficult to estimate the total number of people who will die in Australia from COVID-19. Predictions range from 3,000 to 400,000.
Our morgues, crematoria, cemeteries and funeral homes will certainly be stretched to capacity.
Family and loved ones may be facing a very different funeral to the one they envisaged.
And while funeral directors and others in the deathcare industry are changing the way they care for the dead, there are clearly challenges ahead.
Can I kiss my loved one goodbye?
Traditions that include kissing, hugging, and dressing the dead have often been abandoned or significantly modified during pandemics.
For instance, during the Ebola outbreak of 2013-16, governments were forced to separate the dying and dead from their communities, enforce new non-contact methods of burial, and in so doing, transform how people mourned.
In Australia, the latest federal guidelines (updated March 25) advise families not to kiss the deceased. However, they can touch the body if they wash their hands immediately afterwards or use alcohol-based hand sanitiser. In most cases, family members do not need to use gloves.
How are funerals changing?
Travel bans and mandatory self-isolation periods can delay some funerals. And funerals that pull people from distant places into intimate proximity, often including vulnerable people, present a clear health risk.
For instance, in Spain, more than 60 cases of COVID-19 were traced back to one funeral service.
Everyone has the right to expect a funeral and burial service that respects their individual beliefs. For the families, friends and loved ones of the deceased, an end of life service can also be an important part of the grieving process and help them cope with their loss.
So we need to be creative to find ways to both protect that right and protect public health.
More funerals and memorials going online
In many countries, including the US, UK and Australia, as funeral services are being scaled back or suspended to limit spread of the coronavirus, online services are flourishing.
Our DeathTech Research Team has been following this move to streamed funeral and memorial services. We’ve also been following interest in using hired robots, which people control from afar, to allow people to attend a funeral who can’t be there in person. We predict more innovative use of technology in coming months.
We may also see more people using digital technology such as social media sites for sharing personal memories of the dead and expressing emotions, particularly if they can’t attend funerals in person.
What’s happening behind the scenes?
The coronavirus is also challenging the deathcare industry – which includes funeral homes, cemeteries, morgues and crematoria – for a number of reasons.
International guidelines for funeral directors say that after death, the human body does not generally create a serious health hazard for COVID-19. NSW guidelines say funeral directors and people working in mortuaries are unlikely to contract COVID-19 from deceased people infected with the virus.
However, both sets of guidelines do set out detailed infection control procedures.
There’s a lot of inconsistency in advice about death and funerals between different states and federal government […] Recommendations around coronavirus can be in conflict. We’d rather have and follow conservative guidelines, to make sure we are doing as much as possible.
Then, there’s the issue of staffing. Although many other sectors can find ways to isolate or temporarily close, cemetery, funeral, and crematoria workers provide an essential service and cannot work from home.
We rarely think about the welfare of those who handle the dead. These workers are too often stereotyped as profiteering in the face of grief, or stigmatised by the taboos surrounding their work. But there is a deep sense of service and care that pervades this professional community.
For this community, safe working conditions means ensuring the supply of personal protective equipment. However, Adrian of the Australian Funeral Directors Association told us funeral homes across Australia are struggling to source items such as masks and have run into problems with suppliers profiteering by raising prices.
Finally, we need to advertise broadly a public duty of care for those in the deathcare sector. These are the people who safely dispose of bodies and care for people dealing with the loss of loved ones.
Coronavirus has, in such a short time, radically transformed how we live our daily lives as well as urgently reminded us about the fragility of life.
Being close to others is intrinsically associated with theatre.
In Shakespeare’s London, theatre gatherings were condemned by the Puritans as evil. They thought the plague spread by theatre crowds was God’s punishment on the wicked for indulging in pastimes such as acting.
The shutting down of Broadway and the West End gives an eerie historical parallel to a world we thought was well in the past. Meanwhile, COVID-19 poses as an existential threat for Australia’s fragile performing arts sector.
While some artists look to stream performances online, there is something missing without others “being there” to witness performance in the flesh. Proximity and touch are crucial to “liveness”.
Queen Elizabeth viewing the performance of The Merry Wives of Windsor at the Globe Theatre of London. David Scott (1840).Wikiart
Festivals of togetherness
Touch is commonly associated with ritual through what anthropologist Victor Turner calls “communitas” – a shared and equal feeling of togetherness. In the Catholic mass, members of the congregation shake hands during the “sign of peace” creating a feeling of community. The Maori pōwhiri (welcoming ceremony) culminates in the “hongi” (pressing noses together). The Hajj is characterised by close embodied proximity of believers at the holy site in Islam.
Touch can be important to cultural festivals too. Performance anthropologist J. Lowell Lewis notes that in Brazil’s Carnival:
the degree of close contact is quite important to the sense of a successful festival, for many, and is directly related to a positive valuation of what they call movimento (literally, movement; figuratively, something like the English colloquial sense of “where the action is” at a party scene or perhaps a “happening” situation) …
Live arts and theatre might not be founded in grand narratives of religious and cultural belief, but they do bring people together in a common experience.
Touching histories in theatre
From the ancient Greeks through to the Romans and Middle Ages, there was a theory we are always in contact through an invisible “ether” that exists between bodies.
The famous Russian director and father of actor-training, Constantin Stanislavski, wrote about a “communion” between actors and audience through invisible rays of communication linking by what he called “irradiation”. He also talked about “grasp” on an audience in moments of inspiration.
Avant garde French poet and theatre-maker, Antonin Artaud, speculated about “theatre and the plague” and dreamt of a direct communication of thought and meaning through the body in live performance.
Brazilian theatre-maker and political activist, Augusto Boal, developed theatre games in which touch was crucial for bringing a community together through what he called Theatre of the Oppressed. Proximity and feeling were important for participants understanding each other’s perspective and exploring different ways we might engage in social and political change.
More recently, we have seen the rise of immersive theatre which breaks the fourth wall and allows audiences and performers to interact in specific surroundings, often through improvisation.
Tactility is part of what ethnographer Clifford Geertz calls our “matrix of sensibility”. Skin-to-skin contact is crucial to the mother-infant relationship and our very first awareness of the world.
But with new media, seeing is the dominant way we tend to consume entertainment. The risk is that we might lose a sense of feeling and responsibility.
Philosophy and Ethics
In many ways, touch is fundamental to the way we come to know the world as theorised by Maurice Merleau-Ponty. The phrase, “getting a handle on something” can mean practical and emotional knowledge about the world. So when we say a performance was “touching”, it can also be an embodied feeling of change.
Arts and theatre companies are already finding innovative ways of reaching audiences. Part of the thrill of being at a live event is a sense of danger. Audience members see each other. Things might go wrong. You might be handpicked as a volunteer from the audience. And there is a mutual obligation developed through laughter, silence and applause.
How these dangers will transmit via Zoom, Skype or Instagram Live remains to be seen.
Perhaps limiting touch will serve to increase the meaning of proximity on the occasions that it does occur.
Our heightened awareness of touch and proximity might have benefits in terms of staying away from others if we are unwell, washing hands and maintaining personal hygiene. Lady Macbeth’s untimely demise might serve a double purpose if we say her famous “Out damned spot!”speech twice while scrubbing and rinsing.
In the meantime, new norms around touch and proximity will emerge and performance will play an important part in reflecting and changing social attitudes.