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September 13, 2021
Essay by Keith Rankin. New Zealand is under siege from Covid19. We can learn some things from medieval city sieges. A traditional siege takes place in a fortress, and the besieging agent waits outside the wall or the moat. The defenders also waited, in a battle of attrition; they won if the besieging attackers went ... <a title="Keith Rankin Essay – Breaking NZ’s Covid Siege: What Needs to be Done, and When" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/09/13/keith-rankin-essay-breaking-nzs-covid-siege-what-needs-to-be-done-and-when/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Essay – Breaking NZ’s Covid Siege: What Needs to be Done, and When">Read more</a>
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September 8, 2021
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Public Health measures are restrictive ‘health’ imposts by an authority over some or all of the people subject to that authority. In most cases they are both ‘merit goods’ (having benefits which people ought to be willing to pay for), and ‘public goods’ (goods whose benefits are shared). Quarantine may be ... <a title="Keith Rankin Essay – Quarantine, an effective temporary Public Health measure" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/09/08/keith-rankin-essay-quarantine-an-effective-temporary-public-health-measure/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Essay – Quarantine, an effective temporary Public Health measure">Read more</a>
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September 3, 2021
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Dynamic living processes get into feedback loops. The most common is a negative feedback loop, whereby processes self-regulate; when something happens then something else happens, in response, to offset the initial event. If it gets cold, we put on another layer of clothing. If a consumer good becomes scarce, its price ... <a title="Keith Rankin Essay – Pandemic Feedback" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/09/03/keith-rankin-essay-pandemic-feedback/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Essay – Pandemic Feedback">Read more</a>
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September 1, 2021
Analysis by Keith Rankin. The first two charts show official case numbers and deaths, for all countries, including the little countries that tend to dominate in the peak of the northern summer holiday season. Chart 1 shows the countries with the highest case numbers per person – from French Polynesia (Tahiti) to Greece, plus four ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: State of the World at the end of August 2021" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/09/01/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid19-state-of-the-world-at-the-end-of-august-2021/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: State of the World at the end of August 2021">Read more</a>
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August 26, 2021
Analysis by Keith Rankin. The first chart shows the three largest western countries: United States, United Kingdom, and Germany. The solid line plots represent quarterly average rates of excess death. It is clear that the United Kingdom copped Covid19 very early and very hard. The mid-June peak represents the period from mid-March to mid-June. It is ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: Excess Deaths in New Zealand and Comparator Countries" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/08/26/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid19-excess-deaths-in-new-zealand-and-comparator-countries/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: Excess Deaths in New Zealand and Comparator Countries">Read more</a>
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August 20, 2021
Covid-Delta, Science, and the Problem of Known Unknowns – Analysis by Keith Rankin. It’s a known known that the late Donald Rumsfeld’s principal legacy to the world is the following quote: “As we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – the dangers of Delta, versus the dangers of reduced community immunity" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/08/20/keith-rankin-analysis-the-dangers-of-delta-versus-the-dangers-of-reduced-community-immunity/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – the dangers of Delta, versus the dangers of reduced community immunity">Read more</a>
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August 6, 2021
Analysis by Keith Rankin. The issues to watch out for now are the extent to which countries with high vaccination rates are (1) getting positive cases, and (2) getting Covid19 deaths. And one particular point to watch out for is the extent to which early vaccinator countries show signs of relapse, as immunity levels wane ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: Latest Covid19 Statistics, in the Northern Hemisphere Summer" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/08/06/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid19-latest-covid19-statistics-in-the-northern-hemisphere-summer/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: Latest Covid19 Statistics, in the Northern Hemisphere Summer">Read more</a>
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July 26, 2021
Analysis by Bryce Edwards. A consensus is emerging that the Government has generally managed the Covid crisis very well over the last 18 months, but they have dropped the ball when it comes to the crucial vaccine rollout. This was nicely encapsulated in opinion polling last week showing that while 69 per cent of the ... <a title="Bryce Edwards’ Political Roundup: “Year of the vaccine” at risk" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/07/26/bryce-edwards-political-roundup-year-of-the-vaccine-at-risk/" aria-label="Read more about Bryce Edwards’ Political Roundup: “Year of the vaccine” at risk">Read more</a>
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July 23, 2021
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Finland and Greece are in the East of Europe, but generally thought of as western countries, having not been behind the ‘Iron Curtain’ during the Cold War. They can be seen as a benchmark to help understand the other Eastern European countries. And, like other eastern countries, they had low levels ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: East Europe in the European Union, Excess Deaths in Context" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/07/23/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid19-east-europe-in-the-european-union-excess-deaths-in-context/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: East Europe in the European Union, Excess Deaths in Context">Read more</a>
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July 13, 2021
Analysis by Keith Rankin. We now have excess death data for most of western Europe, until the end of June 2021. The peaks are all due to Covid19. We can see clearly that the pandemic in Europe began simultaneously in Italy and Spain, and almost certainly in January 2020. While we are yet to even ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: West Europe at the onset of a New Wave of Cases" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/07/13/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid19-west-europe-at-the-onset-of-a-new-wave-of-cases/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: West Europe at the onset of a New Wave of Cases">Read more</a>
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July 12, 2021
Joint Op-Ed By Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana, Kanni Wignaraja, and Bambang Susantono If the world wants to beat back the COVID-19 pandemic and ensure no one is left behind in the recovery, two issues thrown into sharp relief by the pandemic need attention: digitalization and regional cooperation. Ensuring the digital transformation reaches all in Asia Pacific ... <a title="OP-ED: Combating COVID-19 and Ensuring No One is Left Behind" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/07/12/op-ed-combating-covid-19-and-ensuring-no-one-is-left-behind/" aria-label="Read more about OP-ED: Combating COVID-19 and Ensuring No One is Left Behind">Read more</a>
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July 9, 2021
Analysis by Keith Rankin. The latest excess mortality data shows all the countries of the British Isles, and the United States, have fewer excess deaths than New Zealand in the three months to the end of May 2021. England/Wales was looking particularly good in the three months to June. (Excess mortality data for the United ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: United Kingdom and Herd Immunity" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/07/09/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid19-united-kingdom-and-herd-immunity/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: United Kingdom and Herd Immunity">Read more</a>
