Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lennart van Maldegem, Postdoctoral Fellow, Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University

Sponges are the simplest of animals, and they may stand at the root of all complex animal life on Earth, including us humans. Scientists study the evolution of the earliest sponges, hundreds of millions of years ago, to learn about the conditions that led life to develop from single-celled amoeba-like creatures to the large, mobile and even intelligent animals that surround us today.

Exactly when and how animals emerged on our planet is a subject of fierce debate among scientists. While the most ancient sponge fossils ever found are around 540 million years old, some have argued that fossil molecules dating from 635 million years ago are evidence of earlier animal life.

However, we have now shown that these fossil molecules may actually have been produced by algae and later transformed by geological forces to resemble traces of animal fats. Our international team of scientists, from the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, the University of Bremen, the Australian National University, the University of Strasbourg, CSIRO and Caltech, have outlined our discoveries in two complementary papers published in Nature Ecology and Evolution today.

Ancient fat in the limelight

The oldest fossil remnants of sponges that can be recognised in ancient rocks are around 540 million years old and date to the early Cambrian period. But there are yet older fossils of animals that belong to the biota of the Ediacara period.

Among the enigmatic Ediacaran creatures that lived up to 40 million years before the “Cambrian explosion” of complex life was an oval-shaped organism called Dickinsonia. It could exceed one meter in size and its segmented body is popularly depicted as something like a quilted air-mattress.

Read more: Friday essay: trace fossils – the silence of Ediacara, the shadow of uranium

A recent study detected fossil cholesterol, 558 million years old, in Dickinsonia fossils. Cholesterol is a characteristic animal fat, so this suggests that Dickinsonia really was a genuine animal rather than a fungus or something else.

But even older than these cholesterol traces found in body fossils are fossilised organic molecules found alone. In 2009, a team of scientists discovered molecules called sterols in 635 million-year-old sediments in Oman on the Arabian Peninsula that once was the bottom of an inland sea.

At the time the study was conducted, the only organisms that were known to produce similar sterols were specific sponges. Here was the long-sought earliest evidence for animals in the world.

What is more, the fossil “sponge sterols” were found in rocks of this age around the globe, suggesting that these animals were very abundant, possibly covering much of the ocean floor.

This exciting discovery suggested that the ancient fat recovered from rocks in Oman represented some of the first recognisable traces that animals left on our planet. But do ancient fat signatures alone really suffice to reconstruct early animal evolution?

Geological time takes its toll

Unfortunately, interpretation of fossil sterols from million-year-old rocks may not be as straightforward as comparing it to the sterols of living organisms. After an organism dies, its remains settle on the bottom of the ocean. They get buried deeper and deeper as sediment builds up, and as the temperature rises, the biological molecules begin to change.

To the disappointment of us scientists, most knowledge about organisms of the past gets erased by these changes. The most informative parts of the molecules are also the most fragile, and they disappear over time to leave behind a more generic, chemically rigid skeleton.

We wondered whether other changes might occur as well, potentially producing molecules that look like fossil sterols of modern sponges but actually have nothing to do with animals. Working in two groups, we approached this question from different ends.

Deceptive alterations

One study, headed by Lennart van Maldegem and Benjamin Nettersheim, focused on sterol molecules preserved in sediments up to 800 million years old. It was thought that these molecules might extend the geological record of animals even deeper into Earth’s history than the famous Oman signatures.

In these sediments, the study uncovered a significant connection between some of the sponge-associated molecules and compounds known to be generated through geological alterations, indicating that they shared the same origin.

To verify this hypothesis, we then carried out laboratory experiments to simulate the effect of geological heating on particular molecules produced by algae. The resulting molecular signatures were surprisingly similar to those of the ancient rocks. So the fossil fat provides interesting insights into the molecular make-up of early algae, but unfortunately does not illuminate early animal evolution.

The second study, led by Ilya Bobrovskiy, focused on green algae themselves. Today they are mainly common in ponds, rivers and tidal pools, but between 500 million and 650 million years ago they dominated oceans all over the world.

By heating green algal molecules in the laboratory – similar to what happens to molecules in rocks – this study showed that some of the most common sterols of green algae can be easily altered into sponge-like molecules. This indicates that also the ancient Oman signature may represent sterols that were originally produced by primitive algae and subsequently altered by geological processes. It turns out that even ancient fat can be deceptive.

Oldest evidence of animals only 20 million years before the Cambrian Explosion

Together, our two studies demonstrate that sponge-associated molecules in ancient rocks are not a tell-tale sign of animals. Instead, they were most likely generated by the remains of common algae exposed to geological heating.

These results should now finally settle the long-lasting debate surrounding the oldest molecular traces of early animals. There currently is no evidence that sponge-like animals conquered the oceans before 540 million years ago, when the first unambiguous fossils of sponges and most other groups of animals start to appear in the geological record. The earliest evidence for animals on Earth is now the 558 million-years-old Dickinsonia and other Ediacaran animals.

Read more: Evolution’s ‘big bang’ explained (and it’s slower than predicted)

– ref. Ancient sponges or just algae? New research overturns chemical evidence for the earliest animals – https://theconversation.com/ancient-sponges-or-just-algae-new-research-overturns-chemical-evidence-for-the-earliest-animals-150635

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daniel Cooper, Lecturer at Griffith University, Griffith University

US President Donald Trump’s time in the White House is coming to an end. But, as has become obvious over the past few weeks, he is unlikely to deliver a gracious concession speech.

Instead, the president has spent much of his time since the November 3 election plotting ways to undo what has turned out to be a rather clear victory for President-elect Joe Biden – all credible media outlets have given Biden 306 electoral college votes to the outgoing president’s 232. The successful candidate needs to amass 270 electoral college votes to win the presidency.

Read more: Joe Biden wins US presidential election as mail-in votes turn key states around

Time is simply running out for Trump. By December 8, all states are required to certify their results, with the electors in each state to cast their votes by December 14. The inauguration of the next president takes place on January 20 2021.

None of this should obscure the anti-democratic coup d’état Trump is attempting as he refuses to concede defeat. However, it is unlikely to succeed.

His legal challenges alleging fraud and misconduct are close to running their course. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled against his claim that election “observers” were too far away in Philadelphia from workers counting ballots. In Georgia, a hand recount has finished with Biden confirmed the victor. And Michigan lawmakers appear ready to defy the president, who now seems intent on wreaking havoc on the certification process.

Trump’s efforts to undermine the legitimacy of the election are real. His attempt to influence Republican state legislators, in effect to persuade them to replace electors committed to voting for Biden with electors ready to vote for Trump, is profoundly undemocratic. Under a winner-takes-all system, Michigan’s 16 electoral college votes should be going to President-elect Biden, the clear winner of the state by almost three percentage points.

If Trump had succeeded in overturning the results, one could go as far as questioning America’s status as a liberal democracy. Not since Southern secessionists contested the legitimacy of Abraham Lincoln’s election in 1860 has a single actor been so nefarious in their attempts to undermine an incoming president.

Look no further than Trump’s actions on the transition. With over 250,000 Americans dead from COVID-19, and case numbers exploding around the country, one would think an orderly transition in which the incoming president is given access to experts knowledgeable about the country’s readiness for mass distribution of a COVID-19 vaccine would be an urgent and unquestioned priority.

But not in Trump’s White House. The General Services Administration, run by a political appointee of the president, must certify Biden as the winner before the incoming administration is given access to top public health officials.

Such certification will eventually take place, as the president simply runs out of options. We suspect he will grudgingly acknowledge he will not be president for the next four years, repeating a never-ending series of fabrications about the legitimacy of the 2020 election. His arguments will resonate with his “base” and will have consequences beyond this election cycle.

Analysis by the Pew Research Center finds:

While a 59% majority of all voters say elections in the United States were run and administered well, just 21% of Trump supporters have a positive view of how elections were administered nationally. Among Biden supporters, 94% say the elections were run and administered well.

The magnitude of these differences is stark and suggests Biden will have much work to do in bringing the country together – if indeed that is possible. Biden himself is attempting to restore moral leadership to a country torn apart by pandemic, racial division and illiberal tendencies in the executive branch of government.

Rhetorically, Biden has hit many of the right notes, emphasising themes of unity and national healing. How this will play out in a policy sense will be seen once he takes office.

Of course, Trump will continue to make life difficult for the incoming Biden administration. Some reports suggest he is already considering running for office in 2024.

So, it should not be surprising if the outgoing president leaves a number of surprises for President-elect Biden. Some press reports in the US are stating that on Middle East policy, trade with China, securing oil drilling leases in Alaska, and the Iran nuclear deal – which Biden may wish to rejoin – the Trump team is doing its best to reduce the incoming administration’s policy options.

Political theorist David Runciman argues that in democracies molehills are often made out of mountains. Vote counting, constantly updating vote tallies, failed legal challenges, recounts, the wearing effects of days of politics dominating life, Biden’s non-spectacular calmness, certification and the meeting of the Electoral College will turn this post-election mountain into a molehill as Trump’s attempted coup will eventually fail.

Read more: Joe Biden wins the election, and now has to fight the one thing Americans agree on: the nation’s deep division

However, Trump has regularly shown us that, in the internet age, mountains can also be made out of molehills. The president’s lies and tweets have turned his presidency into a kind of reality TV show that has in turns transfixed, energised or horrified much of the world. Nevertheless, the show is in its final season and has not been renewed.

We are reminded of an article Rebecca Solnit wrote during the earliest days of the Trump presidency. In it, she presciently captures the predicament in which Trump now finds himself. Although his base and a large number of Republicans still support him, Trump has always surrounded himself with loyal followers reluctant to question their leader’s judgment and authority. This produces a form of isolation that is of Trump’s own making, a consequence of the man’s temperament and unwillingness to tolerate uncomfortable truths.

Reflecting on Trump-like leaders, Solnit explained:

In the end there is no one else in their world, because when you are not willing to hear how others feel, what others need, when you do not care, you are not willing to acknowledge others’ existence. That’s how it’s lonely at the top. It is as if these petty tyrants live in a world without honest mirrors, without others, without gravity, and they are buffered from the consequences of their failures.

Of course, sooner or later Trump will realise the presidency must be vacated. He will have to face the one thing in his life he has always tried to avoid: defeat.

– ref. Is Trump’s truculence an attempted coup or the last-ditch efforts of a man whose star is fading? – https://theconversation.com/is-trumps-truculence-an-attempted-coup-or-the-last-ditch-efforts-of-a-man-whose-star-is-fading-150617

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Hart, Senior Research Fellow, University of Melbourne

COVID-19 has changed the way we live, work and interact with one another. It has also changed the way we move, exercise, shop, prepare food, and eat.

During the pandemic, we’ve seen marked increases in reports of mental distress across the board. But Australian and international research suggests lockdown measures have presented unique challenges for people living with eating disorders.

Eating disorders are complex mental illnesses

Eating disorders include anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, binge eating disorder and other diagnoses. They centre around disordered eating (for example, fasting and dieting, binge eating, or purging behaviours), and often include problems with body image.

Eating disorders are frequently associated with high levels of depression and anxiety.

For some people with these conditions, rigid routines (around exercise, food preparation or eating habits), are a way of coping with symptoms and distress.

It’s no secret the pandemic has significantly disrupted our usual routines. For example, working from home may have led people to be more sedentary, or allowed more time for exercise. Social distancing has meant we’ve spent less time seeing others and sharing meals.

COVID-19 restrictions and social distancing measures, though imperative to reduce the spread of the virus, have resulted in a significant rise in psychological distress, especially for people experiencing social isolation, reduced or uncertain employment, financial strain, or health concerns.

We know people with existing mental health problems have been particularly vulnerable. However, people with eating disorders are vulnerable not only to these mental stressors; but also to the physical changes to everyday routines, and social conversations about eating and body weight which have popped up during lockdowns.

Read more: How many people have eating disorders? We don’t really know, and that’s a worry

What does the research say?

Research published early in the pandemic predicted COVID-19 and the associated restrictions may increase eating disorder risk in a few important ways:

• disruptions to daily routines and reduced access to social supports

• increased exposure to anxiety-provoking media (messages about possible links between high body mass index and COVID, or joking on social media about weight gain during lockdown)

• increased use of videoconferencing where people are exposed to their own image on camera

• anxiety about contracting COVID-19 — the authors suggested this may lead people with eating disorders to engage in dieting for perceived immune system benefits.

Read more: Greater needs, but poorer access to services: why COVID mental health measures must target disadvantaged areas

Australian researchers conducted what was to our knowledge the first published study on disordered eating behaviours during COVID-19. Participants with eating disorders reported a worsening of symptoms — they were restricting their food consumption, binge eating and engaging in purging behaviours more often. They also reported doing more exercise, and high levels of depression, anxiety and stress.

Studies from around the world have since shown similar results. They’ve also found people with eating disorders have reported increased fears about not being able to find foods consistent with meal plans, while disruptions to routine have led to heightened psychological distress and worsening of eating disorder symptoms.

It comes as little surprise demand for eating disorder support has increased significantly. The Butterfly Foundation — Australia’s leading support organisation for people affected by eating disorders and body image issues — has reported a 57% increase in calls to its helpline over the course of the pandemic.

Similarly, inpatient and outpatient services around Australia — particularly in Victoria where residents experienced a prolonged second lockdown — have seen demand increase, resulting in longer wait lists for eating disorder services.

Looking ahead

Although we still don’t know what the long-term psychological effects of COVID-19 will be, previous pandemics such as SARS have taught us these sorts of crises can result in long-term mental health impacts, and may trigger the onset of mental illness, including depression and anxiety.

We don’t know yet conclusively whether the pandemic has triggered the onset of eating disorder symptoms or increased the incidence of these conditions. It doesn’t make it any easier that our understanding of the prevalence of eating disorders in Australia was poor to begin with.

But it does seem highly likely that we will see such increases. The information we have so far suggests pandemic-related challenges can increase the risk for people with eating disorders, or those who may be vulnerable to developing them, in many and varied ways.

Read more: People with eating disorders saw their symptoms worsen during the pandemic – new study

In addition, some research suggests food insecurity is associated with increases in eating disorders, and binge eating in particular.

So even if the pandemic is brought to an end with widespread vaccination, if the associated economic recession results in ongoing disruptions to food supply chains, or in impoverished households having limited or unreliable access to food, we may see further increases in eating disorders, well beyond the life of COVID-19.

It’s critical clinical services and support organisations provide extra support to these groups, not only during the pandemic, but for a significant amount of time after the crisis has resolved. This includes increased access to treatment, as well as online eating disorder supports like chatbots, and telephone hotlines.

If this article has raised concerns about body image or eating disorders, please contact the Butterfly Foundation national hotline on 1800 334 673, or visit their website.

– ref. COVID has presented unique challenges for people with eating disorders. They’ll need support beyond the pandemic – https://theconversation.com/covid-has-presented-unique-challenges-for-people-with-eating-disorders-theyll-need-support-beyond-the-pandemic-148903

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gregory Moore, Doctor of Botany, University of Melbourne

As we come to the end of spring, look up from the footpath or at the park, and you may spot the fiery flowers of the silky oak, Grevillea robusta.

You may already be familiar with grevilleas – perhaps you have low- growing ground cover and shrub species in your garden.

Some people love the brilliant red, yellow, orange or white flowers of grevilleas. They’re also nesting and roosting havens for small native birds, and so people may plant them to attract wildlife.

Of all the grevillias, the silky oak is the one that catches my eye. It’s the largest and tallest of the species, reaching up to 30 metres. They’re now blooming along the east coast and in some inland places – like huge orange light bulbs dominating the skyline.

Strong like oak

Grevilleas have an ancestry older than dinosaurs. They originated on the super-continent Gondwana, and are closely related to banksias, waratahs and proteas.

Today, the 360 species of grevilleas occur in Indonesia and Australia and are a diverse group. Their colourful, distinctive flowers lack petals and instead consist of a long tube known as a “calyx”, which splits into four “lobes”.

Read more: Spring is here and wattles are out in bloom: a love letter to our iconic flowers

Like most other grevillea, silky oak possesses proteoid or cluster roots, which are dense and fine. These roots greatly increase the absorbing surface area and allow plants to thrive in nutrient-deprived soils.

The word “robusta” refers to the fact that the timber is strong like real oak. The freshly split wood has a silky texture, and a pattern and light colour resembling English oak – hence the common name “silky oak”.

Watch out for the cyanide

Grevilleas literally drip nectar, much to the delight of native birds and bees. Aboriginal people enjoyed the sweet nectar straight from the plant or mixed with water — the original lolly water.

But you have to know which species to taste as some, including the silky oak, contain hydrogen cyanide that could make you ill.

Like other grevilleas the silky oak also contains tridecyl resorcinol, which causes an allergic reaction leading to contact dermatitis. The chemical is similar to the toxicodendron in poison ivy.

So when working with silky oaks, you’d be wise to wear gloves, a face mask, protective eye wear (or face shield) and long sleeved clothing. Washing hands and showering at the end of the day is also recommended.

A prized timber

Silky oak timber was widely used in colonial times. Then it was marketed as “lacewood”, and that name persists today among some who use it.

Silky oak veneer was used widely in colonial table tops and other furniture. Over the years, silky oak has also been used to make window frames because it is resistant to wood rot.

Overseas, silky oak timber is still widely grown, in timber plantations and as windbreaks.

Read more: Here are 5 practical ways trees can help us survive climate change

But it’s not widely available in Australia, due to low market demand – the allergens and cyanide it contains means people are generally reluctant to work with it. However silky oak is still highly prized by those who make guitars, and wood turners who make bowls and cabinets.

In the garden

Although an evergreen tree, some specimens are almost semi-deciduous, losing most of their foliage just prior to flowering.

Some specimens of silky oak can be a bit scraggly in their canopy form. They can benefit enormously from a bit of formative pruning when they are young, and perhaps some structural pruning from a good arborist as they get older. A little attention at the right time will be amply rewarded with a safe and great looking tree that can live for 150 years or more.

Silky oak is drought-tolerant. In dry times they often flower a bit later than their usual October blooming, providing a big splash of colour in otherwise drab and difficult years.

The trees can be vulnerable to frost when young, but grow well once taller. This makes the silky oak a potential winner as climate change brings warmer, drier weather.

Silky oaks have been declared an environmental weed in parts of New South Wales and Victoria where it grows outside its native distribution range. They’re also considered an invasive or invader plant in Hawaii and South Africa. However Grevillea robusta is declining in its natural rainforest/wet forest habitat.

In some cities in China, silky oaks have been planted along roadsides with great success. The tree has also gained the Royal Horticultural Society’s Award of Garden Merit for its performance in growing under United Kingdom conditions. That just shows you how one person’s weed is another’s treasure.

Read more: The river red gum is an icon of the driest continent

– ref. Silky oaks are older than dinosaurs and literally drip nectar – but watch out for the cyanide – https://theconversation.com/silky-oaks-are-older-than-dinosaurs-and-literally-drip-nectar-but-watch-out-for-the-cyanide-148920

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Zoë Hyde, Epidemiologist, University of Western Australia

The role children, and consequently schools, play in the COVID-19 pandemic has been hard to work out, but that puzzle is now finally starting to be solved.

The latest research shows infections in children frequently go undetected, and that children are just as susceptible as adults to infection. Children likely transmit the virus at a similar rate to adults as well.

While children are thankfully much less likely than adults to get seriously ill, the same isn’t true for the adults that care for them. Evidence suggests schools have been a driver of the second wave in Europe and elsewhere. This means the safety of schools needs an urgent rethink.

It’s hard to detect COVID-19 in children

Infections with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, in children are generally much more mild than in adults and easy to overlook. A study from South Korea found the majority of children had symptoms mild enough to go unrecognised, and only 9% were diagnosed at the time of symptom onset.

Researchers used an antibody test (which can detect if a person had the virus previously and recovered) to screen a representative sample of nearly 12,000 children from the general population in Germany. They found the majority of cases in children had been missed. In itself, that’s not surprising, because many cases in adults are missed, too.

But what made this study important, was that it showed young and older children were similarly likely to have been infected.

Official testing in Germany had suggested young children were much less likely to be infected than teenagers, but this wasn’t true. Younger children with infections just weren’t getting tested. The study also found nearly half of infected children were asymptomatic. This is about twice what’s typically seen in adults.

But children do transmit the virus

We’ve known for a while that around the same amount of viral genetic material can be found in the nose and throat of both children and adults.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean children will transmit the same way adults do. Because children have a smaller lung capacity and are less likely to have symptoms, they might release less virus into the environment.

However, a new study conducted by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) found children and adults were similarly likely to transmit the virus to their household contacts.

Another study, of more than 84,000 cases and their close contacts, in India found children and young adults were especially likely to transmit the virus.

Read more: Children might play a bigger role in COVID transmission than first thought. Schools must prepare

Most of the children in these studies likely had symptoms. So, it’s unclear if asymptomatic children transmit the virus in the same way.

But outbreaks in childcare centres have shown transmission by children who don’t show symptoms still occurs. During an outbreak at two childcare centres in Utah, asymptomatic children transmitted the virus to their family members, which resulted in the hospitalisation of one parent.

What we know about outbreaks in Australian schools

Schools didn’t appear to be a major driver of the epidemic in Victoria, although most students switched to remote learning around the peak of the second wave.

However, schools did contribute to community transmission to some extent. This was made clear by the Al-Taqwa College cluster, which was linked to outbreaks in Melbourne’s public housing towers.

When researchers analysed cases in Victorian schools that occurred between the start of the epidemic and the end of August 2020, they found infections in schools mirrored what was happening in the community overall. They also found 66% of all infections in schools were limited to a single person.

Read more: Behind Victoria’s decision to open primary schools to all students: report shows COVID transmission is rare

This might seem encouraging, but we have to remember this virus is characterised by superspreading events. We now know that about 10% of infected people are responsible for about 80% of secondary COVID-19 cases.

Two major studies from Hong Kong and India revealed about 70% of people didn’t transmit the virus to anyone. The problem, is the remainder can potentially infect a lot of people.

What happened in Victorian schools was entirely consistent with this.

The risk associated with schools rises with the level of community transmission. The picture internationally has made this clear.

What we know about outbreaks in schools, internationally

After schools reopened in Montreal, Canada, school clusters quickly outnumbered those in workplaces and health-care settings combined. President of the Quebec Association of Infectious Disease Microbiologists, Karl Weiss, said

Schools were the driver to start the second wave in Quebec, although the government did not recognise it.

A report by Israel’s Ministry of Health concluded school reopening played at least some role in accelerating the epidemic there, and that schools may contribute to the spread of the virus unless community transmission is low. In the Czech Republic, a rapid surge in cases following the reopening of schools prompted the mayor of Prague to describe schools as “COVID trading exchanges”.

The opposite pattern has been seen when schools have closed. England just witnessed a drop in new cases, followed by a return to growth, coinciding with the half-term school holidays. This was before any lockdown measures were introduced in the country.

These observations are consistent with a study examining the effect of imposing and lifting different restrictions in 131 countries. Researchers found school closures were associated with a reduction in R — the measure of how fast the virus is spreading — while reopening schools was associated with an increase.

The risk has been spelled out most clearly by the president of the Robert Koch Institute, Germany’s equivalent of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Last week, he reported the virus is being carried into schools, and also back out into the community.

What we need to do

It won’t be possible to control the pandemic if we don’t fully address transmission by children. This means we need to take a proactive approach to schools.

At a minimum, precautionary measures should include the use of face masks by staff and students (including primary school students). Schools should also improve ventilation and indoor air quality, reduce class sizes, and ensure kids and staff practise hand hygiene.

School closures have a role to play as well. But they must be carefully considered because of the harms associated with them. But these harms are likely outweighed by the harms of an unmitigated epidemic.

Read more: From WW2 to Ebola: what we know about the long-term effects of school closures

In regions with high levels of community transmission, temporary school closures should be considered. While a lockdown without school closures can probably still reduce transmission, it is unlikely to be maximally effective.

– ref. Children may transmit coronavirus at the same rate as adults: what we now know about schools and COVID-19 – https://theconversation.com/children-may-transmit-coronavirus-at-the-same-rate-as-adults-what-we-now-know-about-schools-and-covid-19-150523

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachael Wallis, Lecturer, University of Southern Queensland

The idea of moving to the country has gained momentum through the COVID-19 pandemic. Many workplaces have introduced new policies on working from home that give employees the flexibility needed to make the switch.

Lockdowns have shown many just how cramped and uncomfortable life can be when you cannot escape to the usual activities that get you out of the house. And if everything is closed, what is the point of being in the city and paying a higher rent or mortgage anyway? The Reserve Bank has noted rents have gone down and vacancy rates have gone up in major cities.

Read more: Regional Australia’s time has come – planning for growth is now vital

At the same time, some real estate agents have noticed an upturn in interest in renting or buying rural and regional properties. The demand in some regional areas has pushed up prices by as much as 30% in the year to October. It seems many are already making the switch to country living.

It sounds idyllic. Escape the rat race, have space to grow veggies and let the kids play outside. You won’t have to commute any more, and you might even be able to buy a house in the country at a time when city prices remain out of reach for many. You could be living the dream.

Find a place that matches your values

So how do you know if this is right for you, or a disaster waiting to happen?

In my research with people who moved to the country, I found successful moves came down to how closely aligned people’s values were with the attributes of the place they moved to. For example, some people value space and quiet more than bustle and activity. If they found these attributes in their new home, then they were able to craft a new life that was deeply satisfying.

Read more: How moving house changes you

When you look through the pages of a glossy magazine such as Country Style, you might find yourself yearning for the lifestyle it depicts – the grassy fields, the peaceful but quirky homes filled with flea-market finds, the home-grown abundance and the happy, contented people. These are long-held and highly regarded values that many hold dear.

The roots of these ideals are deep. Representations of the country as a rural idyll, a place to escape to, are centuries older than our current media.

Epicurus (340BC to 270BC) moved from the centre of Athens to the countryside just outside so he could grow vegetables and live simply. Virgil’s (70BC to 19BC) Eclogues emphasised a rural idyll, as did much later painters such as John Constable and Eugene von Guérard. Henry David Thoreau’s Walden (1845) is an oft-quoted classic about an urban dweller moving to a rural place to live a better life (albeit temporarily in his case).

Early Australian writers such as A.B. “Banjo” Paterson and Henry Lawson took up this nostalgic ideal in the fledgling colony. So did artists such as Tom Roberts, Arthur Streeton and Charles Condor when they travelled to then-rural Heidelberg, now part of Melbourne, to paint the uniquely Australian countryside.

More recently, we have seen Peter Mayle’s A Year in Provence (1991) sketch a romantic picture of city dwellers moving to rural France. And there are popular television series such as The Good Life (1975-77), Seachange (1998-2000, 2019), River Cottage Australia (2013-16) and most recently Escape from the City.

Read more: Imagining your own SeaChange – how media inspire our great escapes

Beware the gap between depictions and reality

We know the media are a powerful factor in helping us develop and share our identity and personal narratives. We respond to television shows, books and magazines that we are interested in by becoming their audience. We might share values, goals, ideas or even similar stories with the media we watch. We then, consciously or unconsciously, learn from or adopt those ideas and values in a process of socialisation that shows us how we might live a better life.

Media are only a representation, however. A multitude of factors, not least of which are sales and advertising revenues, go into the process of decision-making as images and stories are crafted for the various outlets. There can be a tendency for media to adopt stereotypes as a shorthand form of communication, but these do not necessarily reflect the reality they purport to depict.

This might seem obvious, but it is all too easy to accept these images as truth when we are inclined towards that viewpoint anyway.

Do you value the things that make a rural place what it is, whether that is peacefulness, an absence of people, vistas of rolling hills, or the community of a small country town? If you do, there’s a good chance a move to the country will enable you to live more closely in line with your values and so be a successful one.

If, on the other hand, you value city-style living, which includes attractions, shops, events and being close to services, you might want to reassess whether a seachange or treechange is right for you.

Read more: Should I stay or should I go: how ‘city girls’ can learn to feel at home in the country

– ref. It seemed like a good idea in lockdown, but is moving to the country right for you? – https://theconversation.com/it-seemed-like-a-good-idea-in-lockdown-but-is-moving-to-the-country-right-for-you-148807

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Freebairn, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Melbourne

In tax design as in many endeavours, it’s easy to work out how things should be; harder to work out how to get there.

In NSW, Treasurer Dominic Perrottet wants to replace the one-off stamp duty on real estate transactions with an annual land tax.

In the long run, this one single reform could produce the biggest possible gains of any tax reform, state or federal.

This graph from the federal treasury’s 2015 tax discussion paper makes the point.

It says the “marginal excess burden” (damage) done by real estate conveyancing taxes amounts to 70 cents for each dollar raised.

It means people and businesses change addresses less often than they should. Households live further away from their work than they would like to, are reluctant to move to where there is better work, and spend money extending houses instead of moving to better ones.

Businesses resist changing property location and type when changes in markets and costs suggest they should.

In contrast, the treasury found the marginal excess burden of land tax was negative. By that it means every dollar raised actually makes things better off by making land more likely to be used for its best purpose and making land less likely to be not used at all.

Swapping the worst tax the treasury modelled for the best tax it modelled ought to have a huge economic payoff for use of property, for productivity and for living standards.

It’d also be fairer.

The NSW Thodey Review of federal financial relations commissioned by Treasurer Perrottet notes that 26% of owner-occupiers have remained in the same property for at least 20 years.

Most of these long-term same property owners have benefited “not only from the services provided by the state over that time, but also from a once-in-a-generation land price windfall”.

In exchange for these gains, they have contributed very little towards essential services and critical infrastructure via property taxation. Others who have moved more often than the average to find a job, to be closer to schools, or to match housing size to changes in their family situation have picked up the tab.

Thodey also identifies other reasons for making the switch. Land tax revenue is more stable and predictable than revenue that soars and dives at times when people are buying or are not buying properties.

How you get there matters

The Australian Capital Territory is well on the way.

In 2012-13 it began a 20-year transition. Stamp duty and insurance duty are being wound back (for everyone) and replaced by increases to general rates on land.

The transition is roughly revenue-neutral.

NSW is proposing a different approach. It is considering asking new buyers to “opt in” to an annual land tax in return for escaping stamp duty. Once a buyer has opted in, future buyers of that property won’t be able to opt out. They will pay land tax instead of stamp duty.

It’ll mean no property owner, new or old, need be a loser in the first instance.

Read more: Abolish stamp duty. The ACT shows the rest of us how to tax property

But it will stretch out the transition and involve very large reductions in revenue for years to come, with smaller but still-substantial losses over decades.

As an illustration, assume that in year one, rather than paying $100 of stamp duty, the buyer chooses to pay a much smaller annual land tax.

NSW is going the long way

On average about 5% of properties change hands each year, meaning on average each is transferred once every 20 years. That means that to be revenue neutral in the long term the annual land tax should be set at 5% of the stamp duty.

If all the buyers in the first year switch over to land tax, the government will lose 95% of the money it would have got from stamp duty in that year.

With the passing of time and a larger share of owners paying land tax the shortfall will get smaller. But even after a decade, it might be as much as 50%.

Some buyers will never opt-in

And the voluntary opt in will give buyers who expect to hold a property for longer than average, for more than 20 years, an incentive to turn down the offer of land tax and pay (the lesser) stamp duty as before; while those who expect a short stay will opt for the (lesser) land tax.

This entirely rational behaviour will further reduce government revenue, aggravate the inequity of the system we’ve got, lock some owners into the properties they already own in order to avoid paying for government services, and postpone the benefits of moving to a system in which tax doesn’t distort the use of land.

It’s easy to see why Perrottet has gone for a voluntary switchover.

There are better ways to avoid double taxation

Without some sort of concession, recent buyers would find themselves taxed twice, once through stamp duty and then again through annual land taxes.

The ACT’s 20-year transition is one way to get around the problem.

Despite concerns, it has proved popular enough.

Eight years in, the ACT Labor government has just won it’s sixth consecutive election.

A quicker way of realising the gains from switching while reducing double taxation would be to introduce land tax immediately and give recent buyers a partial credit for the stamp duty they’ve paid.

As an example, stamp duty paid in the past one, two, three, four and five years could receive a credit of 100%, 80%, 60%, 40% and 20%, respectively.

It would cost revenue over the transition period, but not as much as the opt in arrangement proposed by the NSW treasurer, and after that short period it would be revenue neutral. Importantly, it would reap the full efficiency benefits from day one, and ensure everyone paid the tax they should.

– ref. Axing stamp duty is a great idea, but NSW is going about it the wrong way – https://theconversation.com/axing-stamp-duty-is-a-great-idea-but-nsw-is-going-about-it-the-wrong-way-150629

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Higham, Professor of Tourism, University of Otago

Raise your hand if you’ve ever travelled for weeks or months as a backpacker on a limited daily budget. Keep your hand up if you were made welcome in the places you visited on your OE, enjoyed chance encounters and experienced the generosity of strangers.

And did those experiences leave a lifelong affection for the places you visited and people you met? If the answer is yes, then we need to consider what might happen in New Zealand were Tourism Minister Stuart Nash’s latest ideas to become policy.

To recap, Nash told the Tourism Summit in Wellington last week the industry should move away from catering for low-spending backpackers and instead target the rich. This would solve two problems: the environmental damage allegedly caused by freedom campers (including using nature as their toilet), and the pressure of too many visitors in general.

Nash was right to say we cannot return to the pre-COVID normal when the border reopens and the tourism recovery begins. Overcapacity, strained infrastructure and environmental impacts meant growing community resistance was reaching a tipping point.

But do we really want to banish backpackers and position New Zealand as expensive and exclusive — the Switzerland of the South Pacific? There are five reasons this approach would be a mistake.

1. Big spenders are big polluters

Lower-budget travellers generally stay much longer than the average. They usually make a higher aggregate economic contribution than those whose daily spend is high but who pass through quickly.

Does New Zealand really want only the uber-rich to experience our natural wonders, when flying business class, travelling by cruise ship and hiring helicopters are the most environmentally damaging ways to do so?

Read more: Serving time: how fine dining in jail is helping prisoners and satisfying customers

If we were to consider the wider social, economic and environmental impacts of discrete tourism markets, we would be banishing the cruise industry first, not backpackers.

2. Backpackers bring many benefits

Because they stay longer, backpackers can bring wider benefits to our society, economy and environment. They tend to be more dispersed, bringing economic development and employment opportunities to regional communities.

Also, their travel behaviours tend to align more with the concept of regenerative tourism. Backpackers are more likely to be conscious of their carbon footprint, engage in beach cleanups, plant trees and involve themselves in conservation projects.

They are a seasonal labour force, too, as has been shown by critical labour shortages in rural and regional economies due to border closures.

3. The importance of diverse tourism

Backpackers and freedom campers support small regional tourism businesses, attractions and local services that would not survive without them. Backpacker hostels, home-stays, camping grounds and other low-budget accommodation subsectors would be at risk, as would many small and medium tourism businesses.

Read more: Traditional skills help people on the tourism-deprived Pacific Islands survive the pandemic

During crises it is important that tourism destinations have a broad portfolio of markets. This ensures resilience and mitigates potential economic impacts from periodic disruptions to global tourism. Furthermore, as the mayor of Queenstown has observed, today’s backpackers return in future as high-end visitors.

4. Tackling climate change and overconsumption

Social tourism refers to the principle that opportunities to engage occasionally in leisure and tourism are important for personal well-being and an inclusive society. It is a form of tourism based on an ethic of social inclusion, as opposed to exclusion based on wealth.

By contrast, the carbon-intense lifestyles and sense of entitlement of the super-wealthy are major barriers to climate action.

Our tourism policies should not celebrate and encourage over-consumption, which works against shifting attitudes towards less carbon-intensive and more sustainable travel.

5. Damage to our international reputation

Do we really want to be perceived as exclusionary and elitist? A colleague based at a university in the Netherlands, for example, reported a social media backlash:

Everyone is complaining about the news that Kiwis do not want to have us anymore and they are only interested in tourists who fly business class and hire a helicopter around Franz Josef.

Similarly, the policy can look petty. A story headlined “New Zealand vows crackdown on defecating backpackers” in the Times of India reported the New Zealand government’s promise “to take action against backpackers relieving themselves at natural beauty spots as part of post-coronavirus tourism plans”.

The post-COVID challenge

Should New Zealand’s post-coronavirus tourism rebuild really be perceived as revolving around the defecations of low-budget tourists? While there have been cases of disgusting behaviour, this problem can be actively managed.

Non-self-contained campervans could be required to park overnight in fully serviced camping grounds for a nominal fee. New Zealanders should not bear the costs of tourism, anyway. Local councils transfer the costs of freedom camping to ratepayers when they provide “free” overnight parking and toilet facilities — putting rate-paying local camping grounds out of business.

Read more: A four-day working week could be the shot in the arm post-coronavirus tourism needs

Above all, our tourism rebuild should be closely aligned with what makes New Zealand unique. First and foremost, it should be founded on the Māori principles of kaitiakitanga and manaakitanga — a mutual responsibility to care for the land and culture, as expressed in the Tiaki Promise charter.

This would honestly reflect the ideals of generations of Kiwis who have set off on their own OEs to experience the world. If we consider this a birthright, is it fair that we deny the same to others who want to visit us?

– ref. 5 reasons why banishing backpackers and targeting wealthy tourists would be a mistake for NZ – https://theconversation.com/5-reasons-why-banishing-backpackers-and-targeting-wealthy-tourists-would-be-a-mistake-for-nz-150639

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rebecca Giblin, ARC Future Fellow; Associate Professor; Director, Intellectual Property Research Institute of Australia, University of Melbourne

Many culturally important books by Australian authors are out of print, hard to find as secondhand copies, and confined to the physical shelves of a limited number of libraries. Effectively, they have become inaccessible and invisible — even including some Miles Franklin award winners by authors such as Thea Astley and Rodney Hall.

To ensure these works can be read, a team of authors, librarians and researchers are working together on Untapped: the Australian Literary Heritage Project.

By digitising out of print books and making them available for e-lending, the project will create a royalty stream for the authors involved, as well as income for the arts workers we are employing as proofreaders.

Commercial publishing lists, such as Text Classics and Allen & Unwin’s House of Books, do a great job of breathing new life into some of Australia’s lost books. But they often focus on literary fiction, to the exclusion of genre fiction, children’s books and non-fiction, which also need to be preserved.

Here are 10 of our favourites we’re excited to digitise so you can borrow from your local library straight to your e-device. We expect these and other books in the project to be available in the first half of 2021 – and you too can nominate a book for inclusion in the collection here.

Working Bullocks (1926) by Katharine Susannah Prichard

Before Coonardoo (1929), Prichard’s best known work, there was Working Bullocks.

The novel describes the trials of Red Burke, a bullock driver in Western Australia, trying to make a living in a post-war Australia.

Just after the novel’s original publication, it was described by John Sleeman of The Bookman in the UK as “the high-water mark of Australian literary achievement in the novel so far”.

Metal Fatigue (1996) by Sean Williams

Sean Williams has written over 50 books, including co-authored titles with authors such as Shane Dix and Garth Nix which have appeared on the New York Times bestseller list.

Metal Fatigue was Williams’ debut. Set in a small American city 40 years after the end of a nuclear war, the residents must decide if they want to join the newly forming Re-United States of America.

Depicting a dystopic future of violence, shortages and a divided USA, it still feels remarkably current today.

I’m Not Racist, But… (2007) by Anita Heiss

This poetry collection from activist, writer and member of the Wiradjuri Nation, Professor Anita Heiss, skewers Australia’s racist underbelly.

I’m Not Racist, But… explores identity, pride and political correctness; proposes alternative words to the national anthem; and reveals how it is to grow up as an Indigenous woman in Australia.

This is a landmark work along Australia’s slow road to racial reckoning.

Space Demons (1986) by Gillian Rubinstein

The multi-award winning Space Demons was Gillian Rubinstein’s first book and began the much-loved trilogy of the same name.

It follows four ordinary kids drawn into a dangerous new computer game – instead of simply watching the game on the screen, they become part of it. And there is no way to know if they will escape.

With its gripping plot and local setting, Space Demons introduced many children to Australian science fiction – and led to many Australians first discovering their love of reading.

Read more: Curious Kids: Why do adults think video games are bad?

Noonkanbah: Whose Land, Whose Law (1989) by Steve Hawke, with photographs by Michael Gallagher

In 1979-80, the Yungngora people protested to stop the American company Amax drilling for oil on a sacred site on Noonkanbah Station, Western Australia.

This book is the detailed first-hand account of what became a high profile, ground-breaking land rights campaign, leading to the formation of the Kimberley Land Council. The Yungngora people wouldn’t have their native title rights recognised until 2007.

Alongside the reporting by Hawke, son of former PM Bob Hawke?, the book includes photographs taken by anthropologist Michael Gallagher.

This is an essential work of Australian history.

The Unlucky Australians (1968) by Frank Hardy

Frank Hardy was known for his political activism around labour rights, and as the author of 16 books. Almost his entire backlist is out of print, with the notable exception of Power Without Glory (1950).

In The Unlucky Australians, Hardy tells the story of the Gurindji people and the opening years of the strike they began in 1966.

Their protest against poor working and living conditions, seeking the return of their traditional lands, lasted nine years.

The Whitlam government returned some of those lands in 1975 with the historic transfer of “a handful of dirt” and the strike led to the passage of the historic Aboriginal Land Rights (Northern Territory) Act in 1976.

A vital piece towards understanding the shameful labour conditions inflicted upon Indigenous Australians, this book should never have gone out of print.

Read more: An historic handful of dirt: Whitlam and the legacy of the Wave Hill Walk-Off

The Mandala trilogy (1993-2004) by Carmel Bird

Inspired by three real life charismatic and dangerous individuals, these dark stories of abused trust and misplaced faith are transformed, taking on a gothic quality, with complex narratives, unlikely narrators and fairy-tale elements.

The White Garden is an ambitious novel following the misdeeds of the psychiatrist Dr Goddard (or Dr God, for short) in a hospital in the 1960s. Red Shoes takes us into the world of a religious cult. Cape Grimm looks at a religious order after its members are killed by their charismatic leader.

The Mindless Ferocity of Sharks (2003) by Brett D’Arcy

The Mindless Ferocity of Sharks is coming-of-age story about “Floaty Boy”, an 11-year-old with a love of body-surfing, his family, and what happens when his older brother disappears.

Described by the Australian Book Review as “Tim Winton on speed”, D’Arcy shines his own spotlight on Western Australia, exploring the duality of a life spent between the waves and the shore – and what happens when a family becomes torn apart by loss.

Untapped will launch with a free online celebration on November 24 at 6pm. Register for the launch here, nominate a book for inclusion at untapped.org.au – and let us know what you think we should digitise in the comments.

– ref. 10 ‘lost’ Australian literary treasures you should read – and can soon borrow from any library – https://theconversation.com/10-lost-australian-literary-treasures-you-should-read-and-can-soon-borrow-from-any-library-150280

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Australia’s actions should not be seen just through the lens of the strategic competition between China and the United States, Scott Morrison has said in a speech rejecting “binary choices”.

With China casting Australia as an extension of America, disrupting trade, and citing multiple grievances, Morrison reaffirmed the importance Australia put on wanting a positive bilateral relationship.

“Australia desires an open, transparent and mutually beneficial relationship with China as our largest trading partner, where there are strong people-to-people ties, complementary economies and a shared interest in regional development and wellbeing, especially in the emerging economies of Southeast Asia,” he said.

Equally, Australia was “absolutely committed” to its alliance with the United States, based on a shared world view, liberal democratic values and market-based economics.

“And at all times we must be true to our values and the protection of our own sovereignty.”

He acknowledged the global competition between China and the US “presents new challenges, especially for nation states in the Indo-Pacific”. Like other countries in the region “our preference is not to be forced into binary choices”.

Addressing the British Policy Exchange on Monday night, Morrison warned that “our present challenge in the Indo-Pacific is the foretaste for so many others around the world, including the United Kingdom and Europe.”

Australia’s pursuit of its interests in the midst of the China-US strategic competition was made more complex by the assumptions made about its actions, he said.

“Our actions are wrongly seen and interpreted by some only through the lens of the strategic competition between China and the United States.

“It’s as if Australia does not have its own unique interests or views as an independent sovereign state. This is false and needlessly deteriorates relationships.

“If we are to avoid a new era of polarisation, then in the decades ahead, there must be a more nuanced appreciation of individual states’ interests in how they deal with the major powers. Stark choices are in no-one’s interests.

“Greater latitude will be required from the world’s largest powers to accommodate the individual interests of their partners and allies. We all need a bit more room to move,” Morrison said.

He said international institutions also had an important role as circuit breakers. “To provide the space and frameworks for meaningful and positive interaction to be maintained, as a bulwark against any emerging divide.”

Morrison talked up the role the OECD had to play “in support of open trade and market-based principles”. The Australian government is currently running a strong campaign to try to have former finance minister Mathias Cormann elected secretary-general of the OECD.

Morrison also noted the importance of the World Trade Organisation in promoting shared interests, as well as the G7-plus, and the Five-Eyes arrangement, where co-operation had extended beyond traditional security to the economic realm.

He lamented that “two of the most important economies in the region – the United States and India” had decided not to joint the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the recently-concluded Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership respectively.

“Of course, we respect those decisions. But they both remain welcome to join. Our response is straightforward.

“Working with our partners, we plan to make the TPP such a powerful force for open trade and investment that the US and, in the future, India and others will join without reservation. And that includes the UK.

“Interestingly, [China’s] President Xi Jinping has also now expressed interest in possible participation in the TPP,” Morrison said.

“The critical thing about the TPP is that it developed WTO-plus disciplines in key areas of intellectual property, digital commerce and state-owned enterprises.

“These are some of the areas where the WTO has fallen short.”

– ref. Scott Morrison’s message to China: Don’t pigeonhole us – https://theconversation.com/scott-morrisons-message-to-china-dont-pigeonhole-us-150663

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The Victorian government plans a pilot scheme for up to five days sick and carer’s pay, at the national minimum wage, for casuals or insecure workers in priority industries.

Even though the initiative is at a very early stage, with $5 million in Tuesday’s state budget for consultation on the pilot’s design, the federal government immediately attacked the move.

Industrial Relations Minister Christian Porter said it “raises a number of major issues”.

Once underway, the pilot would run two years in selected sectors with high casualisation. It could include cleaners, hospitality staff, security guards, supermarket workers and aged care workers.

“The pilot will roll out in two phases over two years with the occupations eligible for each phase to be finalised after a consultation process that will include workers, industry and unions,” a statement from Premier Daniel Andrews’ office said.

Casual and insecure workers in eligible sectors would be invited to pre-register for the scheme.

While the pilot would be government-funded, any future full scheme would involve a levy on business.

Andrews said: “When people have nothing to fall back on, they make a choice between the safety of their workmates and feeding their family.

“This isn’t going to solve the problem of insecure work overnight but someone has to put their hand up and say we’re going to take this out of the too hard basket and do something about it.”

But Porter said a fully-running scheme would put “a massive tax on Victorian businesses”, which would be paying both the extra loading casuals receive and the levy.

“After Victorian businesses have been through their hardest year in the last century, why on earth would you be starting a policy that promises to finish with another big tax on business at precisely the time they can least afford any more economic hits?”

Porter said it would be better to strengthen the ability of workers to choose to move from casual to permanent full or part-time employment if they wished.

He said this was what had been discussed in the recent federally-run industrial relations working group process involving government and employee and employer representatives.

“It must surely be a better approach to let people have greater choice between casual and permanent employment than forcing businesses to pay a tax so that someone can be both a casual employee and get more wages as compensation for not getting sick leave – but then also tax the business to pay for getting sick leave as well.”

Porter claimed the Victorian approach would be “a business and employment-killing” one.

In the pandemic the federal government has made available a special payment for workers who test COVID-positive or are forced to isolate and don’t have access to paid leave. The Victorian government has provided a payment for those waiting for the result of a COVID test.

The Morrison government will introduce an omnibus industrial relations reform bill before the end of the parliamentary ar, following its consultation process.

A central objective will be to streamline enterprise bargaining. Scott Morrison told the Business Council of Australia last week: “Agreement making is becoming bogged down in detailed, overly prescriptive procedural requirements that make the process just too difficult to undertake”.

He said various issues needed addressing. “The test for approval of agreements should focus on substance rather than technicalities. Agreements should be assessed on actual foreseeable circumstances, not far fetched hypotheticals.” Assessments by the Fair Work Commission should happen within set time frames where there was agreement from the parties.

Morrison said key protections such as the better off overall test would continue but “our goal is to ensure it will be applied in a practical and sensible way so that the approval process does not discourage bargaining, which is what is happening now”.

– ref. Daniel Andrews plans pilot for casual workers’ sick pay but Morrison government critical – https://theconversation.com/daniel-andrews-plans-pilot-for-casual-workers-sick-pay-but-morrison-government-critical-150648

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Roberto Musotto, Cyber Security Cooperative Research Centre Postdoctoral Fellow, Edith Cowan University

It’s no secret the trail of data we leave online can reveal intimate details about our lives. And there are myriad people whose job it is to collect and sift through this, often with a goal to engage in targeted advertising.

Another use for the field of “social network analysis” could eventually be to help prosecutors in criminal courts make sense of huge amounts of digital evidence, collected both online and from devices offline.

This would be particularly useful in trials with several defendants, saving courts precious time and money. Criminal networks can use online spaces such as dark web marketplaces to organise crime and reach more victims and clients.

Transaction patterns, messages and page visits are all clues that can help unpack such a network.

What it is and how does it work?

Social network analysis involves using advanced computer software to explore segments of patterns that recur in social interactions, online and offline. It offers scholars a broad perspective on the world of human relations.

This form of analysis doesn’t just look at who you’re friends with on Instagram – it looks at which decisions you make as an individual, which you make in a group and how these layers of choices influence your world.

Read more: Your social networks and the secret story of metadata

In its simplest form, these social networks can be presented in graphs. There are “nodes” (which represent people) connected by lines or “edges”. An edge could represent a phone call, message or meeting.

Look at the graph of the real network of the Al-Qaeda terrorists involved in the September 11 attack. Can you figure out who the most “connected” terrorist is?

The murky networks of crime syndicates

This information is often expressed in mathematical form, too. These numbers offer information about the dynamics of a group and the specific role of each individual within.

Social network analysis is particularly effective in helping investigators understand covert criminal networks, whether this is a biker gang, group of cyber criminals or members of the Sicilian Mafia. It can reveal details such as:

• who the key individuals are in the group
• how the various members are connected with one another
• how the members combine, or act alone, to carry out crime.

A judge in a preliminary hearing could consult a graph like the one above to help decide whether there is a case to be made against each member.

Mathematical metrics could further filter out individuals for which there is enough evidence to prosecute. This would also help judges reach fairer decisions on jail terms or acquittals.

Surfing through oceans of data

Due to time, money and human resource restrictions, often not all evidence from investigations is used in criminal court proceedings.

Social network analysis would greatly benefit prosecutors in criminal trials involving an excess of digital evidence, which continues to grow alongside general online data.

In Australia, any electronic device seized by authorities must be evaluated in court. Western Australia’s police force processes over 2.8 terabytes of data (2,800 GB) for every case it investigates.

In the 2008 trial of Bell Group v Westpac Banking Corporation, digital evidence extended the final judgement enormously to more than 2,000 pages.

Similarly, a 2016 civil case in Victoria, McConnell Dowell Constructors v Santam and Others, required counsel to go through 1.4 million documents in electronic format. This would have taken about 583 weeks.

The Supreme Court allowed (for the first time) a technology-assisted review to isolate the most “relevant” documents.

But this didn’t help the court understand how the various documents were linked, which would only be possible through social network analysis.

Removing potential for bias

Moreover, large criminal investigations are often broken into multiple trials. While this is economical and maximises resources, it’s inherently risky because evidence can be evaluated differently depending on the court.

This is why the largest and most expensive Mafia trial in history, the 1986 Maxiprocesso trial, was heard by only one court and jury. The initial trial involved 349 hearings over almost two years.

In hindsight, discussions surrounding evidence in the trial could have been shortened had social network analysis been available at the time.

In any criminal investigation, there’s also potential for bias from investigating officers. This bias can introduce errors into the evidence pool, which may not be picked up during a trial, and subsequently distort any analysis conducted.

Technology: both a problem and a solution

Of course, social network analysis isn’t perfect. While it can tell us how an individual interacts with a syndicate, it can’t guide us as to whether that person should be considered separate to the main network or not. This remains the judge’s decision.

There are also limitations to how online networks can be investigated. Often, important data is stored outside police jurisdiction, or requires a search warrant from law enforcement before it can be accessed (such as with Facebook).

Other times, data that’s crucial for an investigation may be hosted on an encrypted service such as WhatsApp, or may be hard to trace if it was uploaded anonymously or under a fake persona.

Read more: Facebook’s push for end-to-end encryption is good news for user privacy, as well as terrorists and paedophiles

Still, social network analyses could prove to be an invaluable support tool to help judges and jurors assess the value of evidence.

If both have a detailed and holistic understanding of the case, this will help ensure the right people are convicted — as quickly as possible and with the sentencing deserved.

– ref. Prosecuting within complex criminal networks is hard. Data analysis could save the courts precious time and money – https://theconversation.com/prosecuting-within-complex-criminal-networks-is-hard-data-analysis-could-save-the-courts-precious-time-and-money-150087

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Charlotte Ganderton, Lecturer, Swinburne University of Technology, Swinburne University of Technology

Many of us might not be as fit as we were before the pandemic hit, and as community sport restarts and gyms reopen across the country amid eased coronavirus restrictions, some people might be at increased risk of injury.

If you do pull your hamstring in your first game back, or work from home life has left you with a sore neck and headaches, you might think about visiting a health-care professional to treat your complaint.

But your sister sees a physiotherapist, your mother a chiropractor, your friend an osteopath and your cousin a myotherapist. All of them come highly recommended, so who do you choose to help manage your aches and pains, and what are the differences between the four?

In Australia, physiotherapists, osteopaths and chiropractors have extensive university training and are registered with the Australian Health Practitioner Regulation Agency (AHPRA). Myotherapists have completed an advanced diploma or bachelors degree in myotherapy or “musculoskeletal therapy”, but aren’t registered with AHPRA. All four types of health professionals are primary contact practitioners. This means you don’t need a GP referral to seek treatment.

You will find all four in private health care, but you’re more likely to be treated by a physiotherapist in the public sector (for example, at public hospitals) compared to chiropractors, osteopaths and myotherapists.

Read more: The chiropractic war with reality rages on…

Similar definitions, on paper

A physiotherapist assesses your problem, provides a diagnosis and helps you understand what’s wrong while considering your general health, activities, and lifestyle. They treat your complaint with a variety of “active” therapies, such as exercise programs and hydrotherapy. They also use “passive” therapies, such as massage, joint manipulation, and mobilisation (a technique used to increase movement of a joint).

There are many different sub-disciplines within physiotherapy. For example, some specialise in treating problems that arise from neurological conditions, like multiple sclerosis or stroke. Some also focus on assisting patients with heart and lung conditions, for example emphysema or after lung infections like pneumonia (or COVID!).

A chiropractor works on the diagnosis, treatment and prevention of mechanical disorders of the muscles, ligaments, tendons, bones and joints, and the effect on the nervous system. They have an emphasis on passive manual treatments, including joint and soft-tissue manipulation, and spinal adjustments. They may also prescribe exercises to help you rehabilitate from your condition as well as provide dietary advice.

Over the last decade, some forms of chiropractic care have come under media and scientific scrutiny, particularly in children and infants, and should therefore be approached with caution.

Read more: Chiropractic care in pregnancy and childhood – a castle built on a swamp

An osteopath focuses on the muscular and nervous systems, assessing the structure of the body to determine its impact on function. For example, the position of your spine and pelvis may impact on the way you reach over to weed your garden. Treatment involves a combination of active and passive therapies, including joint manipulation and mobilisation, massage, as well as postural advice and exercise programs.

A myotherapist works to assist your aches and pains by focusing on the muscles and joints. They offer a range of mostly “hands-on” treatments including dry needling, massage and joint mobilisation, but can also prescribe exercises.

The profession is not registered with AHPRA. Myotherapists are not formally recognised under the umbrella of allied health in some regions of Australia. As such, they were forced to delay reopening as coronavirus restrictions eased in Melbourne, as allied health including physiotherapists were allowed to reopen first.

There’s a lot of crossover in treatments offered between the four professions and not all services offered are supported by high-quality scientific research.

So, what is the scientific evidence?

Understanding if your health-care professional applies evidence-based practice to their treatment will help you decide which therapist is right for you.

Evidence-based practice relates to how any health professional integrates their clinical knowledge with the best available research evidence, and your individual values and circumstances, to assess and manage your health-care complaint. Whether or not this is implemented into daily practice will vary on the individual therapist, and may not be consistent across the entire profession.

Scientific evidence supports the use of treatments where you, as the client, are actively involved in the management of your condition, including education and undertaking an exercise plan — what we call “exercise prescription”.

The breadth of scientific evidence for exercise prescription as a treatment for muscle, ligament, tendon, bone and joint complaints far outweighs the limited scientific support for the prolonged use of “passive” treatments like massage, manipulation, and adjustments. Research suggests these passive treatments should only be used as adjuncts to active treatments. This type of therapy may be appropriate in the early stages of your care, and let’s face it, most people love a massage.

However, in the long term, it doesn’t equip you with the skills required to manage your condition. It may even result in over-reliance on your health-care professional and cost you more in the long run. It’s important to find a health-care professional that empowers you to participate in appropriate exercise, develop skills to self-manage your aches and pains and maintain a healthy, active lifestyle.

Anecdotally, we think that physiotherapists and osteopaths are well equipped to implement an active management plan for your aches and pains. However, as an individual, you should seek out a health-care professional that supports you to manage your own condition. You could do this by speaking to your doctor, reading the biography of your practitioner, or phoning the clinic to enquire about the type of care provided prior to booking an appointment. Your health professional should be someone that walks alongside you and guides you on your rehabilitation journey.

Here are some questions you can ask yourself to help decide if the health-care professional is the right fit for you:

1. will they consider my overall health status, social situation, and hobbies to create a treatment plan?

2. will they educate me on the importance of actively self-managing my aches and pains?

3. will they encourage me to undertake exercise and/or physical activity?

4. will they ask me about my goals and what I want the outcome to be?

5. will they help me determine what to do if my aches and pains flare up in the future?

– ref. Physio, chiro, osteo and myo: what’s the difference and which one should I get? – https://theconversation.com/physio-chiro-osteo-and-myo-whats-the-difference-and-which-one-should-i-get-149993

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendan Churchill, Research Fellow in Sociology, University of Melbourne

The disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has been so profound, particularly for women, that it threatens to upend the progress on gender equality in recent years. During the lockdown, women were doing more of the unpaid labour – care and housework. They were also more exposed to the risks of coronavirus either as essential workers or working in industries, such as retail, hospitality and accommodation services, that were forced to close.

There is evidence also of significant impacts on men’s labour force participation. In some cases men’s job losses early in the pandemic have not been recovered.

The impacts of COVID-19 on women and men extend beyond work and home to education, particularly tertiary education enrolments.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ latest data, 112,000 fewer students were enrolled in tertiary education in May 2020 – at the height of the first wave – compared to a year earlier. This is the largest drop in enrolments in over 15 years.

Like other aspects of COVID-19, the impact was gendered with a far greater decline among women. There were 86,000 fewer women enrolled to study in May 2020 than in May 2019, compared with just over 21,000 fewer men.

Big fall was for women over 25

What do these data tell us about COVID-19, education, work and potentially the future?

These data tell us COVID-19 has not only severely disrupted the lives of women in the workplace and the home, but also in education.

Read more: Chief Scientist: women in STEM are still far short of workplace equity. COVID-19 risks undoing even these modest gains

The biggest decline in tertiary enrolments was among women over the age of 25: 60,000 fewer women over 25 were enrolled in university in May 2020 than in 2019.

This steep decline in enrolments is particularly surprising given Australia’s success in educating women and potentially puts the nation’s reputation at risk. Australia is ranked equal first in the world in terms of educational attainment for women, according the World Economic Forum’s 2020 Global Gender Gap Index. The country has been atop the list for well over a decade.

Juggling caring roles with study

These data remind us caring responsibilities not only affect careers or work-life balance, but also education. The sharp decline in female enrolments over the age of 25 suggests it was likely because of caring responsibilities.

Read more: Victoria’s child-care shutdown is a hard blow for working mothers

Many of these women with caring responsibilities, for either young children or older family members, were likely forced to make a choice between caring and studying. And for those combining work and study on top of family commitments, many elected not to continue studying.

For many mature-aged students (those over 21), undertaking study is challenge, especially for those combining study with work and/or care. Previous research has shown a number of gendered expectations are put upon mature-aged students and their time.

For many of these mature-age women who are combining work and study, they increasingly do it flexibly or online and schedule it around other commitments. Others give up their leisure time for learning.

COVID-19 made that near-impossible. The loss of both family and formal childcare increased the burden of unpaid work for women at home. It was extended far into the workday and into the evenings where mature-aged women might ordinarily find time to study.

Read more: COVID-19 is a disaster for mothers’ employment. And no, working from home is not the solution

Enrolments rose for men over 25

The data also highlight the gendered complexities of COVID-19 on education. Women’s enrolments were disproportionately affected, whereas the data showed significant increases in men over the age of 25 enrolling in university in May 2020 compared with 2019. Male enrolments in this age group increased by about 26,000.

This increase suggests men were either “forced” into tertiary education because of a lack of opportunities, or it was a deliberate strategy on their part to upskill so they could be more competitive for jobs once the economy recovers. In this way, older age groups of men have shown themselves to be similar to young people who tend to go into education during times of recession. This is perhaps in contrast to previous recessionary periods where the participation rate of older men declined considerably.

All of this has implications for the future, particularly for women. These data are worrisome because, even though the returns from education for women are poor, many women obtain a number of qualifications just to get on an even keel with men in the labour market.

These latest trends might make it harder for women in the long run. However, it is worth noting these data capture enrolments at a point in time – during the first wave of the pandemic. Things might have changed significantly since then.

– ref. No one escaped COVID’s impacts, but big fall in tertiary enrolments was 80% women. Why? – https://theconversation.com/no-one-escaped-covids-impacts-but-big-fall-in-tertiary-enrolments-was-80-women-why-149994

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tanya Dalziell, Associate Professor, English and Literary Studies, University of Western Australia

In a new series, writers pay tribute to fictional detectives on page and on screen.

Trixie Belden, girl detective, does not rank in the world’s pantheon of cool sleuths. She’s unlikely to appear in a Coen brothers’ film (à la Marge Gunderson in Fargo (1996)), for example. Nor did she issue from the pen of hardboiled, mid-century crime writer Chester Himes.

Instead, she was the creation of Western Publishing — the American maker of Little Golden Books who wanted to market low-cost mysteries and adventures to children after the second world war — and Julie Campbell, a writer and literary agent who responded to their call.

Read more: My favourite detective: Kurt Wallander — too grumpy to like, relatable enough to get under your skin

Campbell wrote the first six books in the series from 1948 to 1958. The rest, some 30 or so, were composed by ghostwriters between 1961 and 1986 and published under the pseudonym, Kathryn Kenny.

As a child, I had no inkling of this origin story. So far as I knew, Trixie Belden was from Crabapple Farm, Sleepyside, in the Hudson River Valley. She had three brothers (two older, one younger) and her best friend was Honey Wheeler, met in the original book, The Secret of the Mansion (1948), which I read more than 30 years after it was first published.

Friends like these

Honey was rich and beautiful. So was Diana, who turned up a bit later in the series and was memorably said to have violet eyes. Trixie was neither of these things.

In the first book, at the age of 13, she found her detective vocation by uncovering the fortune of a deceased recluse. She also met its beneficiary. Jim Frayne, a runaway with a brutal stepfather, would become Honey’s adopted brother, Trixie’s blossoming love interest, and a member of the Bob-Whites, Trixie’s club of friends who formed the support cast for the Belden-Wheeler Detective Agency.

Whether searching for a lost weather vane or tracking down an arsonist, Trixie was at the centre of all the mysteries, which I avidly read and reread.

Read more: Friday essay: Alice Pung — how reading changed my life

My attraction to Trixie was not a matter of projection or identification; my world was clearly unlike hers.

I did not anticipate that I would come across a rabid dog; rescue a pilot from a burning aeroplane; or have to suck blood from my brother’s toe to prevent his poisoning by a copperhead. (And that was all in only the first book of the series).

Trixie was obsessed with horses, I was more interested in her setter dog, Reddy. Trixie was terrible at maths, which had yet to cause me trouble.

The differences between us didn’t matter so much as our shared interest in “running all the information through [our] mental computer” (from 1977’s The Mystery of the Uninvited Guest). I wanted to figure things out, just like Trixie. She nonetheless had many amateur sleuth competitors on my primary school reading list.

Read more: The kids are alright: young adult post-disaster novels can teach us about trauma and survival

Tips for young detectives

I had the non-fiction Detective’s Handbook out on constant library loan. It was instructive in disguise-wearing and decoding. Then there was Enid Blyton’s The Famous Five and The Secret Seven, and also Nancy Drew.

The child-groups constituting the two former titles were like the Bob-Whites insofar as they also formed detective communities. Although to my mind they put inordinate value on passwords, badges and boarding school holidays.

Nancy Drew was undeniably admirable in her older sophistication but a little too polished for my still-developing taste. She was confident and self-contained, which is surely why Hollywood created movie versions of her and why the intrusion of the Hardy Boys franchise into her narrative made no sense to me. It wasn’t like she needed any help.

By contrast, Trixie Belden was more accommodating and needing of others. She sometimes said mean things, and would then regret them and apologise.

She knew she wasn’t as pretty as Honey or Diana and, while that worried her a little, she shrugged it off and had far more interesting existential doubts. In the 17th book, The Mystery of the Uninvited Guest, she speaks of feeling as if she were inside a glass box:

All the people of the world march past me … I know that when I can tell just one person who I am, the glass will melt and I can join the parade.

I’m sure at the age of eight or nine I had only a vague idea of what she meant, but it sounded a lot like what growing up was all about.

Read more: Friday essay: why YA gothic fiction is booming – and girl monsters are on the rise

Smart and sensitive

Sticky situations, mistaken identities and stolen jewels were always worked out, revealed or returned to their rightful owners in the end. And the motives behind these events weren’t always nefarious.

Reassurance was offered in the sympathetic knowledge that circumstances, rather than moral flaws, can bring about bad deeds, and that detection itself trod a fine ethical line.

Trixie’s conscience was pricked by her practices of eavesdropping, surveillance and occasional breaking-and-entering. At times she determined that the status quo, which her detective work ostensibly upheld, was not right.

Maths might have stumped her, but as Honey appreciatively recognised of her friend:

Trixie was a down-to-earth person, keenly aware of information gathered by all of her five senses — plus that extra sense called horse sense.

She might not be cool, today or then, but — well-surpassing her intended pulp-fiction status — Trixie Belden was smart and sensitive in the ways that mattered.

– ref. My favourite detective: Trixie Belden, the uncool girl sleuth with a sensitive moral compass – https://theconversation.com/my-favourite-detective-trixie-belden-the-uncool-girl-sleuth-with-a-sensitive-moral-compass-149624

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Glasziou, Professor of Medicine, Bond University

In controlled laboratory situations, face masks appear to do a good job of reducing the spread of coronavirus (at least in hamsters) and other respiratory viruses. However, evidence shows mask-wearing policies seem to have had much less impact on the community spread of COVID-19.

Why this gap between the effectiveness in the lab and the effectiveness seen in the community? The real world is more complex than a controlled laboratory situation. The right people need to wear the right mask, in the right way, at the right times and places.

The real-world impact of face masks on the transmission of viruses depends not just on the behaviour of the virus but also on the behaviour of aerosol droplets in diverse settings, and on the behaviour of people themselves.

We carried out a comprehensive review of the evidence about how face masks and other physical interventions affect the spread of respiratory viruses. Based on the current evidence, we believe the community impact is modest and it may be better to focus on mask-wearing in high-risk situations.

Read more: How a 150-year-old experiment with a beam of light showed germs exist — and that a face mask can help filter them out

The evidence

Simply comparing infection rates in people who wear masks with those who don’t can be misleading. One problem is people who don’t wear masks are more likely go to crowded spaces, and less likely to socially distance. People who are more concerned often adhere to several protective behaviours — they are likely to avoid crowds and socially distance as well as wearing masks.

That correlation between mask wearing and other protective behaviours might explain why studies comparing mask-wearers with non-mask-wearers (known as “observational studies”) show larger effects than seen in trials. Part of the effect is due to those other behaviours.

The most rigorous, but difficult, way to evaluate the effectiveness of masks is to take a large group of people and ask some to wear masks and others not to, in a so-called controlled trial. We found nine such trials have been carried out for influenza-like illness. Surprisingly, when combined, these trials found only a 1% reduction in influenza-like illness among mask-wearers compared with non-mask-wearers, and a 9% reduction in laboratory-confirmed influenza. These small reductions are not statistically significant, and are most likely due to chance.

Read more: 13 insider tips on how to wear a mask without your glasses fogging up, getting short of breath or your ears hurting

None of these trials studied COVID-19, so we can’t be sure how relevant they are to the pandemic. The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is a similar size to influenza, but has a different capacity to infect people, so it is possible masks might be more or less effective for COVID-19. A recently published trial in Denmark of 4,862 adults found infection with SARS-CoV-2 occurred in 42 participants randomised to masks (1.8%) compared to 53 control participants (2.1%), a (non-significant) reduction of 18%.

The most comprehensive between-country study of masks for COVID-19 infection is a comparison of policy changes, such as social distancing, travel restrictions, and mask wearing, across 41 countries. It found introducing a mask-wearing policy had little impact, but mask policies were mostly introduced after social distancing and other measures were already in place.

What might diminish the effect of masks?

Why might masks not protect the person wearing them? There are several possibilities. Standard masks only protect your nose and mouth incompletely, for one thing. For another, masks don’t protect your eyes.

The importance of eye protection is illustrated by a study of community health workers in India. Despite protection by three-layer surgical masks, alcohol hand rub, gloves, and shoe covers, 12 of 60 workers developed COVID-19. The workers were then supplied with face shields (which provide eye protection) — in addition to the personal protective equipment (PPE) described above — and none of the 50 workers became infected despite higher case load.

Why masks might fail to clearly protect others is more complex. Good masks reduce the spread of droplets and aerosols, and so should protect others.

However, in our systematic review we found three trials that assessed how well mask wearing protects others, but none of them found an obvious effect. The two trials in households where a person with influenza wore a mask to protect others in fact found a slight increase in flu infections; and the third trial, in college dormitories, found a non-significant 10% relative reduction.

We don’t know if the failure was the masks or participants’ adherence. In most studies adherence was poor. In the trials very few people wear them all day (an average of about four hours by self-report, and even less when directly observed). And this adherence declined with time.

But we also have little research on how long a single mask is effective. Most guidelines suggest around four hours, but studies on bacteria show masks provide good protection for the first hour and by two hours are doing little. Unfortunately, we could not identify similar research examining viruses.

Is it better to focus masks on the 3 Cs: covered, crowded and close contact?

In addition to the completed Danish trial, another ongoing trial in Guinea-Bissau with 66,000 participants randomised as whole villages may shed more light as it tests the idea of source control. But given the millions of cases and billions of potential masks and mask wearers, more such trials are warranted.

We know masks are effective in laboratory studies, and we know they are effective as part of personal protective equipment for health care workers. But that effect appears diminished in community usage. So in addition to the trials, new research is urgently needed to unravel each of the reasons why laboratory effectiveness does not seem to have translated into community effectiveness. We must also develop ways to overcome the discrepancy.

Until we have the needed research, we should be wary about relying on masks as the mainstay for preventing community transmission. And if we want people to wear masks regularly, we might do better to target higher-risk circumstances for shorter periods. These are generally places described by “the three Cs”: crowded places, close-contact settings, and confined and enclosed spaces. These would include some workplaces and on public transport.

We are likely to be better off if we get high usage of fresh masks in the most risky settings, rather than moderate usage everywhere.

Read more: How should I clean my cloth mask?

– ref. Face masks cut disease spread in the lab, but have less impact in the community. We need to know why – https://theconversation.com/face-masks-cut-disease-spread-in-the-lab-but-have-less-impact-in-the-community-we-need-to-know-why-147912

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Kenny, Professor, Australian Studies Institute, Australian National University

During the recent American elections, the most eye-catching graphics were were the individual county tallies.

These showed that even when states appeared to be overwhelmingly Republican red, some still “flipped” to the Democrats on the strength of a smaller number of blue squares.

The trick? These azure islands denoted population clusters in cities like Detroit, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Phoenix.

The left-right chasm between urbanised Americans and the more sparsely distributed rural-regional ones was there to see in primary colours.

But the division itself was neither new, nor especially American.

Across England’s industrial north, British Labour’s Euro-centric cosmopolitanism cut little ice in the Brexit referendum of 2016, the same year once rusted-on working class Democrats first broke for Trump.

Labor struggling to reach ‘two Australias’

And of course in Australia, this trend is also well established.

Indeed, Coalition majorities have long been built on the need for niche-messaging. This sees Liberals garner the city vote, while mostly leaving the Nationals to reinterpret the conservative brand for bush sensibilities.

As a one-message-fits-all party, the ALP has struggled with this, and as the two Australias become more distinct and antagonistic, the strain is showing.

Labor’s primary vote nationally is stuck in the low-to-mid 30% range. In the resources states, it sits even lower. That’s too low to win a majority, prompting some in Labor to suggest a Liberal/National-style partnership with the Greens.

But it is far from clear how this would maximise the combined lower house seat haul, given they both court the same inner-city electors. What seems more obvious is that a joint Labor-Greens ticket would actually accelerate the drift of industrially-centred regional seats towards the Coalition.

Fitzgibbon and the coal dilemma

This is already happening.

According to Joel Fitzgibbon, who resigned last week from the shadow frontbench, Labor’s ambitious 45% by 2030 emissions cut at the last election proved this. After being pushed to preferences in 2019 on the back of a 14% primary vote slump, Fitzgibbon believes that “crazy” policy was kryptonite in his coal-dominated seat, and in regional communities up and down the eastern seaboard.

Read more: Grattan on Friday: Labor’s Joel Fitzgibbon waves the lightsaber

The Hunter Valley-based MP, and others in Labor’s right faction, argue such communities feel abandoned by a party beholden to inner-city progressives. There’s no doubt Labor MPs are increasingly pessimistic over their electoral prospects.

Some on the right insist the party is doomed unless it actively reconnects with its industrial roots, and that means dropping the climate change focus.

As Fitzgibbon told reporters when announcing his frontbench resignation,

We have to speak to, and be a voice for, all those who we seek to represent, whether they be in Surry Hills or Rockhampton. And that’s a difficult balance.

For Labor leader Anthony Albanese, this presents a near unsolvable puzzle. He needs to outflank the Greens on his capacity to form a government and deliver, and out-perform the Coalition on commitment. Now, he must also manage a rebellion inside his caucus from those who want to dump the party’s climate policy.

Right-aligned MPs, buttressed by powerful unions, argue steering closer to the Coalition than the Greens is the only way to secure government.

But Labor’s paid-up membership and a majority of its MPs favour a clear acknowledgement of the scientific evidence — evidence that unambiguously calls for the phasing out of fossil fuels in the next decade or two.

In a sign of things to come, the blaze of publicity surrounding Fitzgibbon’s resignation completely derailed Labor’s attempt to highlight how the new Democratic White House had left the Morrison government exposed as the only serious economy explicitly not committed to a net-zero time-line.

Read more: After Biden’s win, Australia needs to step up and recommit to this vital UN climate change fund

But Fitzgibbon, who claims to have substantial caucus support, wants Labor to simply tuck in behind the Morrison government and allow it to take any political heat for emissions targets not met and voters left frustrated.

Yet this too would be politically calamitous.

There could be an election next year

With an election possible within 12 months, time to reconcile these oil-and-water imperatives is fast running out.

It is a perfect storm. On the one hand, there is rising pessimism over Labor’s ability to compete with the Morrison government – especially during a pandemic. On the other, rising community impatience for decisive climate action.

Read more: Labor’s climate policy is too little, too late. We must run faster to win the race

That the opposition has not yet named interim emissions targets for 2030 and 2035 despite a clear commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050, speaks to its nervousness. Its rhetoric stresses urgency and purpose, but its detail reveals hesitation.

Insiders know any repeat of its 2019 each-way bet on the Adani coal-mine will be a gift to the Greens.

As the policy show-down looms, so too does the ever-present danger to Albanese of it morphing into a leadership stoush. The left’s Tanya Plibersek and the right’s Jim Chalmers are regarded as the most credible alternatives.

While only a climate capitulation would satisfy right-wing malcontents, another school of thought favours a doubling down, based on the simple arithmetic that there are a dozen-plus Coalition seats held by margins of under 5% — more than enough to compensate for the loss of regional electorates.

Bold transition fund needed

Perhaps Labor’s only hope of keeping both sides in the tent is to propose a bold, generously funded transition fund.

This would not just talk about green jobs and retraining, but directly pay those workers who are displaced. It would include everything from the loss of income and retraining, to compensating for the loss of businesses, house values, and full family relocation costs.

Taking advantage of the low cost of borrowing, this multibillion brown-to-green transition fund could guarantee workers in phased-out sectors would not be left to carry the costs of what is a “national” responsibility and “national” economic reconfiguration.

This could this be Labor’s winning formula: representation, leading to reparation, enabling reform.

– ref. Albanese is running out of time to solve Labor’s climate crisis. He needs a plan that works for two Australias – https://theconversation.com/albanese-is-running-out-of-time-to-solve-labors-climate-crisis-he-needs-a-plan-that-works-for-two-australias-150066

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Luke Kelly, Senior Lecturer in Ecology and Centenary Research Fellow, University of Melbourne

Last summer, many Australians were shocked to see fires sweep through the wet tropical rainforests of Queensland, where large and severe fires are almost unheard of. This is just one example of how human activities are changing fire patterns around the world, with huge consequences for wildlife.

In a major new paper published in Science, we reveal how changes in fire activity threaten more than 4,400 species across the globe with extinction. This includes 19% of birds, 16% of mammals, 17% of dragonflies and 19% of legumes that are classified as critically endangered, endangered or vulnerable.

Read more: Click through the tragic stories of 119 species still struggling after Black Summer in this interactive (and how to help)

But, we also highlight the emerging ways we can help promote biodiversity and stop extinctions in this new era of fire. It starts with understanding what’s causing these changes and what we can do to promote the “right” kind of fire.

How is fire activity changing?

Recent fires have burned ecosystems where wildfire has historically been rare or absent, from the tropical forests of Queensland, Southeast Asia and South America to the tundra of the Arctic Circle.

Exceptionally large and severe fires have also been observed in areas with a long history of fire. For example, the 12.6 million hectares that burnt in eastern Australia during last summer’s devastating bushfires was unprecedented in scale.

This extreme event came at a time when fire seasons are getting longer, with more extreme wildfires predicted in forests and shrublands in Australia, southern Europe and western United States.

But fire activity isn’t increasing everywhere. Grasslands in countries such as Brazil, Tanzania, and the United States have had fire activity reduced.

Extinction risk in a fiery world

Fire enables many plants to complete their life cycles, creates habitats for a wide range of animals and maintains a diversity of ecosystems. Many species are adapted to particular patterns of fire, such as banksias — plants that release seeds into the resource-rich ash covering the ground after fire.

But changing how often fires occur and in what seasons can harm populations of species like these, and transform the ecosystems they rely on.

We reviewed data from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and found that of the 29,304 land-based and freshwater species listed as threatened, modified fire regimes are a threat to more than 4,403.

Most are categorised as threatened by an increase in fire frequency or intensity.

For example, the endangered mallee emu-wren in semi-arid Australia is confined to isolated patches of habitat, which makes them vulnerable to large bushfires that can destroy entire local populations.

Likewise, the Kangaroo Island dunnart was listed as critically endangered before it lost 95% of its habitat in the devastating 2019-2020 bushfires.

However, some species and ecosystems are threatened when fire doesn’t occur. Frequent fires are an important part of African savanna ecosystems and less fire activity can lead to shrub encroachment. This can displace wild herbivores such as wildebeest that prefer open areas.

How humans change fire regimes

There are three main ways humans are transforming fire activity: global climate change, land-use and the introduction of pest species.

Global climate change modifies fire regimes by changing fuels such as dry vegetation, ignitions such as lightning, and creating more extreme fire weather.

What’s more, climate-induced fires can occur before the dominant tree species are old enough to produce seed, and this is reshaping forests in Australia, Canada and the United States.

Humans also alter fire regimes through farming, forestry, urbanisation and by intentionally starting or suppressing fires.

Introduced species can also change fire activity and ecosystems. For example, in savanna landscapes of Northern Australia, invasive gamba grass increases flammability and fire frequency. And invasive animals, such as red foxes and feral cats, prey on native animals exposed in recently burnt areas.

Read more: Fire-ravaged Kangaroo Island is teeming with feral cats. It’s bad news for this little marsupial

Importantly, cultural, social and economic changes underpin these drivers. In Australia, the displacement of Indigenous peoples and their nuanced and purposeful use of fire has been linked with extinctions of mammals and is transforming vegetation.

We need bolder conservation strategies

A suite of emerging actions — some established but receiving increasing attention, others new — could help us navigate this new fire era and save species from extinction. They include:

Where to from here?

The input of scientists will be valuable in helping navigate big decisions about new and changing ecosystems.

Empirical data and models can monitor and forecast changes in biodiversity. For example, new modelling has allowed University of Melbourne researchers to identify alternative strategies for introducing planned or prescribed burning that reduces the risk of large bushfires to koalas.

New partnerships are also needed to meet the challenges ahead.

At the local and regional scale, Indigenous-led fire stewardship is an important approach for fostering relationships between Indigenous and non-Indigenous organisations and communities around the world.

And international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming are crucial to reduce the risk of extreme fire events. With more extreme fire events ahead of us, learning to understand and adapt to changes in fire regimes has never been more important.

Read more: The world’s best fire management system is in northern Australia, and it’s led by Indigenous land managers

– ref. Humans are changing fire patterns, and it’s threatening 4,403 species with extinction – https://theconversation.com/humans-are-changing-fire-patterns-and-its-threatening-4-403-species-with-extinction-150532

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Martin Bliemel, Associate Dean of Research; Course Director, Diploma in Innovation, University of Technology Sydney

This essay is based on the Impact at UTS podcast series. The audio series examines how a diverse range of researchers embed knowledge exchange and impact in their research strategy.

Universities are facing great financial challenges and a swathe of redundancy programs is under way. Many senior academics are retiring early. Those that remain are picking up more teaching load. Research and teaching programs are both at risk of being seriously compromised.

Beyond the individual loss for people who have built careers exploring important research challenges, what may be less apparent is our collective loss as a society if academics are deprived of the time to explore tough questions that we need answers for.

Read more: As universities face losing 1 in 10 staff, COVID-driven cuts create 4 key risks

It might be hard to look beyond the immediate crisis in higher education, but universities will remain crucial social institutions. Now is the right time to continue the conversation about what they are and who they serve. And what are their impacts?

As part of our Impact at UTS podcast series, we spoke to researchers about how they navigate collaboration, engagement – with communities, industry and government – and impact. The breadth and depth of these impact stories reveal many inter-related insights, which we present later in this article. (You can listen to a full podcast episode at the end.)

Why does university research impact matter?

Universities are uniquely placed to explore complex problems that our collective future depends on. They can do so in a rigorous, ethical, collaborative and enduring way. Peer review regulates subjectivity and biases.

Investing the time to confront complex problems is often beyond the appetite and patience of a corporate agenda driven by other imperatives, including short-term survival. Nationally, Australia continues to lag in OECD rankings for research and development. This is obviously not desirable, and it’s a symptom of bigger problems in the university sector.

Read more: Budget’s $1bn research boost is a welcome first step. Billions more, plus policy reforms, will be needed

The sector has rightly begun to question inward-looking measures of success and KPIs, which are largely based on quantifying research grants in and publications out. Only other researchers care about such things.

Here, we ask why is the research worth doing in the first place? What does it contribute beyond the esteem of academic colleagues?

The COVID-19 crisis has intensified the need to revisit the relationship universities have with society. Every academic needs to grapple with questions of why or when research should be prioritised over teaching and upskilling job seekers and job keepers.

Read more: Universities have gone from being a place of privilege to a competitive market. What will they be after coronavirus?

The challenges of assessing impact

While a shift away from crude input-output metrics towards research impact sounds appealing, assessing impact is much harder to do at scale.

And, perhaps more importantly, many academics are highly specialised. Some are amazing curriculum designers, teachers, grant writers, researchers, report writers, administrators, team managers, stakeholder engagers (if that’s a real word) etc. So, among academics, it’s only natural that some will focus on impact more than others.

Academics create value in myriad ways, and rarely do you find a “purple squirrel” – someone who excels at the full spectrum of work to be done. But, if impact is increasingly relevant to all academics, then a shift towards impact opens questions about performing as a team or individually.

There is also understandable scepticism and change resistance to the “impact agenda” among academics. They are already time-poor and highly scrutinised. Any additional reporting and accountability requirements, such as the Australian Research Council’s engagement and impact assessment, feel like the last straw for academics, especially those who are busy chasing yesterday’s KPIs.

The research engagement and impact agenda needs to be worked through with great care. For a start, measurement of anything indelibly changes it, and new KPIs can introduce perverse responses and behaviours.

Focusing on engagement and impact also reinvigorates important value questions. There is always a risk that fundamental research is viewed as having no foreseeable impact. Yet it has given us so many unexpected and significant societal benefits.

A classic example is radio-astronomy research by CSIRO and Macquarie University leading to wi-fi, which is an enabling technology for further innovations. Similarly, there was no guarantee of success at the start of decades of experimenting involved in innovations like HPV vaccines, cochlear implants and solar panels. Each innovation has directly and indirectly improved millions of lives.

Binary thinking about research versus impact, or applied versus fundamental research, is misguided, as societal benefits rely upon both sides of those coins. The tension of research versus teaching is similarly unproductive.

Learning from researchers with impact

We can look to outliers or “purple squirrels” to learn about research excellence with impact. Robert Langer is an outstanding example. One of his ventures, Moderna, is a leader in developing a COVID-19 vaccine.

Langer’s lab at MIT has generated thousands of articles and patents, raising billions of dollars to spin out over 40 companies. This work includes treating multiple forms of cancer, endometriosis, eczema, vocal cord damage and more, and has affected the lives of billions. His papers with industry collaborators are also discussed more widely than papers published by academics only.

Global outliers like Langer are certainly inspiring, but can feel inaccessible for the average researcher.

For our Impact at UTS podcast series, we spoke to highly acclaimed but more accessible researchers about how they navigate collaboration, engagement and impact. We cast a wide net. Their work spans a variety of disciplines and issues, including rebuilding reefs, Indigenous rights and self-determination, beach safety, solving crime through trace detection, access to clean water, autonomous vehicles, and more.

What did these researchers tell us?

These impact stories consistently reveal many inter-related insights, including:

• researchers’ desires to effect positive change align with the shift towards valuing benefits

• researchers can be faithful to standards of academic rigour, ethics and independence while having material impact

• complex problems demand multi- or transdisciplinary approaches, which often have engagement built in

• engagement starts before a research project is formalised, and continues during and after it — gone are the days of throwing mono-disciplinary publications behind a paywall in the hope someone will discover it, make sense of the jargon and bridge the research-policy gap

• engagement is based on shared values, which become shared language and shared understandings

• formal agreements are important, but impactful collaboration is far from being transactional or contractual

• it’s a team effort — there might be one chief investigator, but it’s often a team of researchers and several non-university stakeholders.

Fulfilling universities’ public purpose

These insights reveal a more holistic and integrated picture of research engagement with communities, industry and government. By engaging with research end-users early, researchers get a real understanding of the problem. This helps inform their research, leading to greater impact and adoption.

The lessons learned should resonate with academics from any discipline or stage of career. They are also useful to non-academics as they select which academic or university to reach out to.

Despite the COVID-19 chaos, what endures is that universities are institutions with a public purpose. In Australia, publicly funded agencies employ a significant proportion of the research workforce. University research thus plays a critical role in addressing complex problems and national needs.

Read more: $7.6 billion and 11% of researchers: our estimate of how much Australian university research stands to lose by 2024

A focus on the benefits that accrue from university research provides an opportunity for universities to enhance public trust and confidence in the value of their research. An engaged and supportive public may just be the most effective pathway towards creating the political will to adopt coherent, evidence-based policy.

For researchers, greater impact contributes to a virtuous research life cycle, including more sustainable funding. Last, but certainly not least, being able to draw on excellent research with impact in the classroom creates cutting-edge education and lifelong learning experiences in a way that more authentically includes the voices of the people impacted by the research.

Subscribe to the Impact at UTS podcast on your favourite podcast app: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher.

Impact at UTS was made by Impact Studios at the University of Technology Sydney – an audio production house that combines academic research with audio storytelling for real-world impact.

– ref. Who cares about university research? The answer depends on its impacts – https://theconversation.com/who-cares-about-university-research-the-answer-depends-on-its-impacts-149817

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mike Armour, Senior research fellow, Western Sydney University

More than one-third of young women in a nationwide survey said they missed at least one class, either at school or university, in the past three months due to menstrual symptoms, including pain and fatigue.

More than three quarters of young women said they had problems concentrating due to their period. Around half said they didn’t feel like they had performed as well on a test or assignment due to their symptoms.

We used a nationwide online survey to collect information from 4,202 teenagers and young women in Australia, aged 13 to 25, who were either at school or at tertiary education like university or TAFE.

More than half (60%) of the women in our survey said they wouldn’t feel comfortable speaking to a teacher or lecturer about how their period was affecting them.

How period pain affects education

Many young women experience menstrual symptoms. Almost three quarters report regular period pain, around half report fatigue, and more than one third report emotional changes such as mood swings. Studies show these menstrual symptoms can cause women to miss work or school and some previous studies in teenagers show it may potentially impact academic performance.

We wanted to understand how menstrual symptoms might be affecting young women in Australia with regard to their education, and how they manage these.

We asked young women about how often they got period pain and other menstrual symptoms, how it impacted their attendance or classroom performance, and explored how useful they found the sexual and reproductive education they had previously received.

In our survey, nine out of ten young women reported having had period pain in the past three months, and half reported pain every month. This is similar to previous findings in teenagers in Australia.

Read more: Period pain is impacting women at school, uni and work. Let’s be open about it

Their pain scores, which tended to be moderate to severe for most, didn’t change as they got older.

More than one-third of young women said they missed at least one class in the past three months due to their menstrual symptoms. This was almost identical no matter if they were at school or at university.

The negative impacts of periods also included missing sport and social activities. But more than half (60%) of young women said they wouldn’t feel comfortable speaking to a teacher or lecturer about how their period was affecting them.

Pain was the biggest factor in predicting how much their education would be affected, with higher pain scores having a much greater negative impact. This is a concern as it often occurs at a crucial time in their academic lives during their final schooling years. Absenteeism at this time can have long-term consequences due to exams and assignments in the senior years often determining which courses can be studied at tertiary education.

Many accepted pain as ‘normal’

Most of the young women in our study didn’t seek medical advice for their pain, even when it was severe. This is similar to what has been found in the past.

As their pain got worse they were more likely to think it was abnormal but weren’t any more likely to seek medical attention. This is probably due, at least in part, to the fact most young women think pain is normal and they just need to put up with it.

Unfortunately, this belief can often be reinforced when they speak to a medical professional.

Read more: Health Check: are painful periods normal?

Only about half of young women at school had heard of endometriosis — a chronic condition in which cells similar to those that line the uterus grow in other parts of the body. It can cause significant pain, fatigue and reproductive issues.

Only about half of young women said they would seek medical advice if they had pelvic pain when they didn’t have their period. This is despite over half (55%) reporting they did experience pelvic pain (pain similar to their period but when not menstruating) at least once a month.

Severe period and pelvic pain when not menstruating are very common early signs of chronic pelvic pain (such as endometriosis), and delays in diagnosis may worsen outcomes for young women.

Read more: 1 in 10 women are affected by endometriosis. So why does it take so long to diagnose?

Women need better education

Education on menstrual health is incorporated into the Australian Foundation to Year 10 Health and Physical Education (HPE) curriculum. This positions health and physical education teachers as critical in providing students with evidence-based information in a relevant, timely and age-appropriate manner.

Yet the extent to which this is occurring in schools is unknown. Research reports Australian teachers are uncomfortable addressing menstruation. This often results in periods being taught as a negative and troublesome part of growing up.

The young women we surveyed highlighted their schools’ shortcomings in educating them on how to manage period pain. One 16-year-old Victorian student said:

There was no practical information such as relieving symptoms and the use of sanitary items, only the biological effect on the body such as how hormones come into play. Personally that was not useful and I can’t remember much about it.

The young women saw a lack of support for period pain during their education and the negative impacts this may have. An 18-year-old student from Western Australia said:

In particular, no advice was given on dealing with pain (mine ended up being extreme) or what the process (if any) was at school for having menstrual pain taken seriously and treated as a consideration in test writing or sport class.

Teachers need to be more aware of potential impacts of period pain on education outcomes. And the curriculum must be expanded to focus on mitigation strategies for period pain.

There are some promising menstrual education programs, both in person and online, that have been developed to tackle these shortcomings, including some that also include parents and boys. Currently these programs are often ad-hoc, and need to be adopted as a consistent part of the school curriculum.

It is critical menstruation and period pain transcend being a girl’s or women’s issue alone and include all genders, as well as parents and caregivers, who are often called on to support and inform young people.

– ref. 3 out of 10 girls skip class because of painful periods. And most won’t talk to their teacher about it – https://theconversation.com/3-out-of-10-girls-skip-class-because-of-painful-periods-and-most-wont-talk-to-their-teacher-about-it-150286

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tony Matthews, Senior Lecturer in Urban and Environmental Planning, Griffith University

Australian governments have always wanted thriving regional cities, but policy innovations with this goal in mind have a bad history. Planned well, regional cities have huge potential to generate national economic growth while improving livability and sustainable development.

Governments want strong economies, diverse job opportunities and growing populations in regional cities. The Commonwealth’s City Deals and Smart Cities Plan have recently renewed focus on these priorities.

Read more: Cities policy goes regional

The main policy problem for regional cities has been creating enough employment opportunities to attract residents from capital cities. Unexpectedly, the COVID-driven trend towards remote working may have delivered a solution.

Suddenly, the potential of digital technology for working remotely is being embraced. Many people could live in regional cities while working remotely for employers elsewhere. If this trend continues, regionalism could well become the newest phase of Australian urbanism.

An urban country dominated by capitals

An urban country emerged from as early as the 19th century as modern Australia took shape. Almost 90% of Australians now live in cities, making us one of the most urbanised countries in the world. More than two-thirds are in the capital cities; relatively few live in regional cities.

The east coast capitals developed first. Other capitals followed, along with industrial cities like Newcastle and Geelong. Regional cities grew at different speeds; some have longer histories than others.

Read more: Bust the regional city myths and look beyond the ‘big 5’ for a $378b return

The nationwide shift to suburbia started in the early 20th century and has accelerated since. The “Australian Dream” of owning a free-standing family home in the suburbs remains dominant. It drives the relentless expansion of outer suburbs, especially around the large capitals.

Decades of constant suburbanisation and expansion of capital cities fuelled the rise of metropolitan Australia. Here, expanding outer suburbs extend into surrounding hinterlands before eventually connecting with neighbouring cities and towns. Metropolitan Melbourne, Greater Sydney and South-east Queensland are examples.

Read more: Australian cities and their metropolitan plans still seem to be parallel universes

Urban consolidation, focused on increasing the density of urban cores and inner suburbs, is another recent phase of Australian urbanism. It is promoted as an efficient way to improve the availability and mix of urban housing, while slowing unsustainable sprawl. The broad uptake of urban consolidation across Australia is one of the main reasons inner-urban living became desirable in recent times.

A common thread through the phases of Australian urbanism is that the overwhelming concentration of people and jobs in capital cities has been difficult to reverse. Until now, migrating to a regional city and bringing your job with you was a distant dream for most workers and policymakers.

Read more: Australia’s dangerous fantasy: diverting population growth to the regions

Departures and arrivals

Things may be about to change for regional cities. A new trend of people relocating from capital cities to regional areas appears to be gaining momentum.

This new internal migration creates a unique opportunity for governments to grow regional cities and stimulate economies.

Regional cities will benefit from expanding populations. More people will generate new cultural attractions, more social opportunities and greater vibrancy.

City revenues will rise as more taxes and rates start to flow through. Policymakers can then deliver much-needed liveability improvements.

Read more: The average regional city resident lacks good access to two-thirds of community services, and liveability suffers

Policy innovations for regional cities should focus on quickly delivering quality housing and social infrastructure such as schools and hospitals. Care must be taken to ensure rapidly rising rents and gentrification don’t displace existing residents. Displacement of regional city residents was a big problem during the mining boom.

Regionalism also presents opportunities and challenges for the capital cities. Growing vacancy rates for residential, commercial and retail space could become permanent. Falling populations and fewer workers will hurt some sectors. Sunk investment in infrastructure, including public transport, might be unrecoverable if projected user numbers don’t materialise.

Read more: If more of us work from home after coronavirus we’ll need to rethink city planning

Even if some residents leave capital cities, others will still arrive. There will probably be distinct demographic differences between the two groups. Most of those leaving will be established professionals with occupations they can continue remotely. Most arrivals will likely be interstate and overseas migrants, as well as graduates looking for entry-level professional roles.

For the next few years at least, the option to work regionally for a capital city employer is likely to be negotiated and earned, rather than automatic.

Regional future demands adaptable planning

The coming years will definitely not be business as usual for Australian cities. The rise in remote working will bring transformative changes.

It will not be enough to just plan for growth in regional cities. It is imperative to plan well, plan strategically and plan for the long term.

The move towards regionalism will have financial, social and environmental impacts. Established urban patterns may no longer hold. Policy responses will have to be innovative, flexible and dynamic.

Governments may need to activate special regulatory and legal arrangements to effectively manage trends towards regionalism. The innovative frameworks for regional development in recent City Deals are illustrative of new policy approaches to shaping regionalism.

We see a shift in the distribution of some planning and development powers between tiers of government to prioritise certain projects. Changes will have to be justified by economic, environmental or social objectives. Even if necessary, it might cause controversy, upheaval and legal challenges.

Governments will need to be strategic, diplomatic and brave to maximise future opportunities for regional and capital cities. Recognising that regionalism looks like the newest phase of Australian urbanism is a good start.

– ref. Regional Australia’s time has come – planning for growth is now vital – https://theconversation.com/regional-australias-time-has-come-planning-for-growth-is-now-vital-149170

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Helen Hodgson, Professor, Curtin Law School and Curtin Business School, Curtin University

The government’s Retirement Incomes Review paints an encouraging picture of the finances of retired Australians.

Most are at least as well off in retirement as they were while working, and most are more financially satisfied and less financially-stressed than Australians of working age.

But not all. The huge exception is retirees who do not own their own homes.

Whereas very few retired home owners are in poverty, most retired renters are.

Income poverty rates of retirees

So bad is the divide, the review found that even a 40% increase in Commonwealth Rent Assistance (the payment for pensioners) would reduce financial stress among renters by only 1%.

This is because rent assistance is low, covering only about 13% of the cost of renting.

Retirees who own their own homes don’t have to pay rent (and can still get the pension should their wealth be tied up in their home), and have a source of wealth that usually eclipses both their own superannuation and the wealth of renters.

Equivalised household wealth by asset type, for retirees

Most people do not regard their home as a retirement asset, a view compounded by rules that exempt it from taxes and the pension assets test.

They are also reluctant to borrow against the value of their home using facilities such as the Pension Loans Scheme, for the same reasons they are reluctant to touch any of the wealth they retire with.

Data provided to the review by a large super fund shows its members typically die with 90% of what they had at retirement.

Most retirees don’t use what they’ve got

Another study finds age pensioners die with about 90% of what they had on retirement.

Partly the reasons are psychological. The review says words such as “investments”, “savings” and “nest eggs” imply the assets aren’t for living on.

Before compulsory super, employer-sponsored schemes usually paid “defined” benefits that could be measured in terms of income per year.

In the new system, designed to break the connection between workers and specific employers, benefits were “accumulated” in funds that could most easily be measured by the amount in them.

Read more: Why we should worry less about retirement – and leave super at 9.5%

It is difficult for most people to see how a lump sum converts into income stream, and even more difficult when it depends on the interaction with the pension.

Another reason retirees hang on to what they had on retirement might be a genuine (if misplaced) concern about the unexpected.

In fact, health and aged care costs are heavily subsidised. Most people’s spending on them doesn’t increase significantly throughout retirement, yet many people seem unaware of how little of their own funds they will need.

Partly this is because of the complexity of the aged care and health care systems and how poorly they are explained.

It’s created two systems

Providing help to retirees who actually need it (mainly renters, many of them single women) and getting people with assets in the form of superannuation, savings and housing to actually use them rather than pass them on in bequests are the two key challenges identified in the report.

They are problems that boosting the rate of compulsory super contributions (as pushed for by the funds and presently leglislated) won’t help with.

They are set to become worse.

Although home ownership rates remain high for people over the age of 65, a growing number of Australians are not entering the housing market.

Over 15 years, the number of Australians over 65 who do not own their home outright is expected to double.

Read more: Fall in ageing Australians’ home-ownership rates looms as seismic shock for housing policy

As the amount in super funds grows (boosted by the legislated increase in compulsory contributions, should it take place), Australians with super are going to have even more relative to what they need and even less need to make use of it.

The report makes no recommendations, and doesn’t suggest that the solutions are easy.

Widening the pension asset test to include the home would leave many homeowners worse off and could generate distrust and destabilise the system.

Read more: Retirement incomes review finds problems more super won’t solve

Getting more Australians into home ownership has proved difficult and could never be a solution for all Australians, in any case.

We already have in place rules that require retirees to draw down their super, but often they withdraw the minimum amount permitted and then reinvest much of it in another savings vehicle outside of super.

We’ve created a system where most have enough or more than enough to retire on and others get nothing like enough.

– ref. What matters is the home: review finds most retirees well off, some very badly off – https://theconversation.com/what-matters-is-the-home-review-finds-most-retirees-well-off-some-very-badly-off-150465

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kevin John Brophy, Emeritus Professor of Creative Writing, University of Melbourne

In a new series, writers pay tribute to fictional detectives on page and on screen.

As a detective’s apprentice for over 60 years now, I’ve had work-experience stretches in the offices of Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes, Agatha Christie’s Hercule Poirot, Wilkie Collins’s Walter Hartright and Raymond Chandler’s Philip Marlowe.

I count Lee Child’s Jack Reacher as a detective-investigator, though he would show little patience for an apprentice such as me. Peter Temple’s Jack Irish, Stieg Larrson’s Mikael Blomkvist, Michael Connelly’s Harry Bosch, Tana French’s Antoinette Conway, Dervla McTiernan’s Cormac Reilly, and others have guided me along the way.

I can’t say I’ve learned much about how to solve crimes, or even how to face death, but I can say I’ve become addicted to a world where disasters abound and answers eventually arrive.

There has been one detective I’ve stuck with, and perhaps in some ways become more than his apprentice. I might have become his shadow for nearly a decade. Kurt Wallander, working out of the imagination of Henning Mankell. I think I stuck with Kurt, and felt for him because the novels were as much interested in the humdrum details of his life as the crimes he encountered.

First and final

Last week I finished re-reading the series of prequel novellas that introduced Kurt Wallander to readers: The Pyramid (first published in 1999).

It was in these stories Wallander’s father suddenly bought a house in the countryside and moved there to live alone and paint the same painting over and over again. Then he suddenly decided to travel to Egypt where he was arrested for trying to climb up the side of a pyramid (steeper than he thought it would be, he didn’t get far up it).

The shape of the triangular pyramid made some kind of murky, intuitive sense to Wallander as he grappled with a series of at first seemingly unrelated crimes and deaths. And this might be another reason I like the man: he is not particularly bright, though he is particularly persistent.

Read more: Agatha Christie: world’s first historical whodunnit was inspired by 4,000 year-old letters

Of course I have watched and very much enjoyed the television incarnations of Kurt Wallander, including some of the latest Young Wallander episodes. But as a reader (admittedly of English translations) I have a certain textual man in mind so surely that I’m wary of television versions pushing him out.

I like it that he calls himself a police officer, not a detective, even in the final novel (2009’s The Troubled Man) after he has solved a lifetime’s worth of crimes and finds himself in his 60s doing exactly as his father did — buying a country house on impulse that sits listing among empty fields like a shipwreck.

In that final novel, what I like most of all is the relaxed build-up to crimes that will encompass the book. It takes us about 50 pages to get there as we follow Wallander through the buying of the country house, acquiring a dog, trying to train it, learning of his daughter’s pregnancy, becoming a grandfather, struggling to respect her new lover who is the father of her child, and finally coming to face his own fast-approaching decline into dementia.

It is not that he seems to be more “real” than other detectives, for any detective worth their salt has personal problems that round out the depiction of a flawed character they must deal with alongside the task of solving crimes. It’s a necessary convention. Wallander, though, did get under my skin.

The timing was right. Wallander is just that bit ahead of me in years — far enough ahead to allow my imagination room to be with him but not inside him. He has aged before my time, failed at all sorts of challenges with me (though he did his best), misunderstood himself, as most of us do, while managing to keep what was important to him going in his life.

His was no one’s envied life, but it was vividly a life lived with the kind of purpose we might question but could never treat with cynicism.

Read more: Friday essay: from convicts to contemporary convictions – 200 years of Australian crime fiction

Slightly exotic

There needed to be something else about him, though, to keep me reading across those 11 or 12 novels (depending on how they’re counted).

Wallander remained that convincing and slightly exotic stranger — the Swedish one who listened to opera in his car, sometimes drank too much alone, ate junk food, and let his temper get the better of him too often, while managing to face death and bring justice to his corner of the world repeatedly.

In truth, Wallander is probably too morose, too solitary and grumpy for me to ever truly like. But isn’t that the hallmark of any interesting friend in literature: someone you can be up close to in a book but not have to find a taxi for at the end of the night?

Over a lifetime of reading, detective fiction becomes a tribute to the real police all over the world who chase murderers down. We rely on them, and can mostly only imagine what damage this work does to their souls. I am not surprised that one time, after writing 100 pages of a Wallander novel about child abuse, Henning Mankell took his manuscript outside and burned it. There have to be limits to the stories and mysteries that see us through.

Read more: At the end of the Wallander era, Nordic Noir has come into its own

– ref. My favourite detective: Kurt Wallander — too grumpy to like, relatable enough to get under your skin – https://theconversation.com/my-favourite-detective-kurt-wallander-too-grumpy-to-like-relatable-enough-to-get-under-your-skin-149277

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

It would be a waste if the Friday’s mammoth Retirement Incomes Review was remembered only for its finding that increases in employers compulsory superannuation contributions come at the expense of wages.

That has long been assumed, and is what was intended when compulsory super was set up.

Compulsory super contributions are set to increase in five annual steps of 0.5% of salary between 2021 and 2025.

These are much bigger increases than the earlier two of 0.25% in 2012 and 2013.

And the wage rises they will be taken from will be much lower. The latest figures released on Wednesday point to shockingly low annual wage growth of 1.4%.

Should each of the scheduled increases in employers compulsory super knock 0.4 points off wage growth (which is what the review expects) annual wage growth would sink from 1.4% to 1%.

Read more: Workers bear 71% to 100% of the cost of increases in compulsory super

Private sector wage would sink from 1.2% to 0.8%, in the absence of something to push it back up.

Because inflation will almost certainly be higher than 1%, it means the buying power of wages would go backwards, all for the sake of a better life in retirement.

The review presents the finding starkly. Lifting compulsory super contributions from 9.5% of salary to 12% will cut working-life incomes by about 2%.

And for what? It’s a question the review spends a lot of time examining.

Most retirees have enough

The review dispenses with the argument that the goal of a retirement income system should be “aspirational”, or to provide people with higher income in retirement than they had in their working lives.

It finds that for retirees presently aged 65-74 the replacement rates for middle- to higher-income earners are generally adequate.

Many lower-income earners get more per year in retirement than they got while working.

If the increases in compulsory super proceed as planned, this will extend to the bottom 60% of the income distribution.

They’ll enjoy a higher standard of living in retirement than while working (and will enjoy a lower standard of living while working than they would have).

Most retirees die with most of what they had when they retired, leaving it as a bequest. They are reluctant to “eat into” their super and other savings because of concerns about possible future health and aged care costs, and concerns about outliving savings.

The review quite reasonably sees this as a betrayal of the purpose of government-supported super, saying

superannuation savings are supported by tax concessions for the purpose of retirement income and not purely for wealth accumulation

It’s the pension that matters

The pension does what super cannot. It provides a buffer for retirees whose income and savings fall due to market volatility, and for those who outlive their savings. 71% of people of age pension age get it or a similar payment. More than 60% of them get the full pension.

If there’s one key message of the review, it is this: it is the pension rather than super that matters for maintaining living standards in retirement, which is what the review was asked to consider.

It is also cost-effective compared to the growing budgetary cost of the super tax concessions.

Read more: Why we should worry less about retirement – and leave super at 9.5%

The age pension costs 2.5% of GDP and is set to fall to 2.3% of GDP over the next 40 years as the super system matures and tighter means tests bite.

Treasury modelling prepared for the review shows that if more money is directed into super and away from wages as scheduled, the annual budgetary cost of the super tax concessions (mostly directed will exceed the cost of the pension by 2050.

There’s a real retirement income problem

A substantial proportion of Australians, about 30%, are financially worse off in retirement than while working, and they are people neither super nor the pension can help.

Mostly they are older Australians who have lost their jobs and cannot get new ones before they before eligible for the age pension or become old enough to get access to their super. Often they’ve left the workforce due to ill health or to care for others and are forced to rely on JobSeeker, which is well below the poverty line.

Read more: Forget more compulsory super: here are 5 ways to actually boost retirement incomes

It’s much worse if they rent privately. About one quarter of retirees who rent privately are in financial stress, so much so that the review finds even a 40% increase in the maximum Commonwealth Rent Assistance payment wouldn’t be enough to get them a decent standard of living in retirement.

No recommendations, but findings aplenty

The review was not asked to produce recommendations. Instead, while noting that much of the system works well, it has pointed to things that need urgent attention.

It finds that pouring a greater proportion of each pay packet into the hands of super funds is not one of them, and in the present unusual circumstances could cost jobs as employers who can’t take the extra cost out of wages take it out of headcount.

The government will make a decision about whether to proceed with the legislated increase in compulsory super in its May budget, just before the first of the five increases due in July.

– ref. Retirement incomes review finds problems more super won’t solve – https://theconversation.com/retirement-incomes-review-finds-problems-more-super-wont-solve-150529

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cobus Gerber, Associate Professor, University of South Australia

We’re often hearing alerts for different areas after traces of coronavirus are found in the wastewater, or sewage.

Most recently, fragments were detected at Benalla, in Victoria’s north, and at Portland, not far from the South Australian border. The Victorian government subsequently closed the border to South Australia, and urged anyone in these areas to get tested if they developed symptoms.

The idea of testing sewage to track the presence of a virus is not new. Scientists in Israel used it to monitor a polio outbreak in 2013.

While it is a useful tool for COVID-19 disease surveillance, it’s not entirely foolproof.

From drug use to COVID-19

We commonly use wastewater monitoring to estimate levels of illicit drug use in Australia. This is the sort of work our teams do, although this year we shifted our focus to look at methods of testing wastewater for COVID-19.

A virus monitoring program uses the same principle as wastewater monitoring for drugs. Microbes such as SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, are passed mainly through a person’s gut, then come out in their stool, and enter the sewerage system after a toilet flush.

This process, called viral shedding, depends on the severity of the infection (generally, people who have a more severe infection shed more of the virus, though this isn’t always the case) and can occur for several weeks after symptoms have disappeared.

Although the virus doesn’t stay viable in the sewage for very long — you’re not likely to catch it if you come into contact with sewage containing virus — remnants of its genetic material may remain intact. When a daily sample is collected at a treatment plant, we can recover the RNA fragments.

Some research groups have suggested this approach may be able to detect a single infected person in a catchment of 100,000.

The technique is important

A variety of techniques can be used to recover the genetic material before we measure how much virus is present. The more virus there is in a sample, the easier it is to detect.

Currently, there are no agreed standard approaches — different teams testing wastewater for COVID in different places do it differently.

This is partly because we’re still working out the best method — each has its own strengths. Our research, currently under review, shows a method may be very sensitive in some cases but not in others.

Wastewater from a suburban area may contain mainly household effluent, whereas a sample from a more industrial area could contain various chemicals that may interfere with detecting the viral RNA. Wastewater is not homogeneous and its contents can even vary depending on the time of day.

We’re working on developing more robust methods that are less prone to being influenced by the wastewater source. In the meantime, we need to be a bit cautious when interpreting results from wastewater testing.

Read more: Diarrhoea, stomach ache and nausea: the many ways COVID-19 can affect your gut

What happens when a sample is positive?

Once traces of SARS-CoV-2 show up in wastewater, it’s a likely indication that infected people live in, or have visited, the sewer catchment. However, it’s important that more than one indicator confirming virus RNA is included in the tests to minimise the risk of false positives.

Even then, a result may simply be a case of people who are recovering from illness, shedding virus after they’ve completed their quarantine, when they will no longer be infectious.

It’s important to carry out ongoing surveillance to determine if the signal peters out, or if the level of virus detected at the location increases. The latter would suggest an underlying spread of infections, and the need to step up targeted testing. This is arguably the strength of wastewater surveillance.

Conversely, when the results are negative, it may imply there are no infected people in the catchment. However, this could also mean the testing method is insufficiently sensitive to pick up infections. It’s possible infected people are located far from the sampling point, and no identifiable virus remnants remain in the sample by the time it’s collected.

There’s also the issue that many people in regional areas have their own septic tanks.

So like testing people for COVID, wastewater testing carries a risk of both false positives and false negatives.

Read more: Flushing is our next weapon against COVID-19, if you’re happy to have your sewage scrutinised

There are strengths and weaknesses

Sewage surveillance can’t give us specific information, such as the location of the infected people or the number of infections. But as long as we understand its strengths and weaknesses, it’s a valuable complementary approach to guide targeted testing.

It can provide authorities with evidence that may inform whether they can relax restrictions in some communities, instead of applying blanket lockdowns. If we had COVID wastewater monitoring across South Australia (currently it’s only operating in Adelaide), it might have been able to indicate there were no cases in regional areas, and perhaps they could have avoided this week’s harsh lockdown.

With so much uncertainty about when and where the next outbreak might occur, monitoring wastewater could provide an early warning signal.

People in Benalla in Portland should be aware and get tested if they have any symptoms, according to public health advice. But at this stage, there’s no need for alarm.

Read more: South Australia’s COVID outbreak: what we know so far, and what needs to happen next

– ref. Sewage testing is no magic bullet in our fight against COVID-19. But it can help – https://theconversation.com/sewage-testing-is-no-magic-bullet-in-our-fight-against-covid-19-but-it-can-help-149989

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bridget Haire, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Kirby Institute, UNSW

It’s been a big week for South Australia. First, the announcement of a six-day lockdown to limit the spread of COVID-19. Then today we heard this lockdown may have not been needed, after a man lied to contact tracers, prompting an early lifting of restrictions.

In between, South Australians have been waiting in queues for up to ten hours for COVID-19 tests. And the state’s chief public health officer Nicola Spurrier warned the “worried well” not to clog up important public health services.

Labelling people anxious about COVID-19 the “worried well” isn’t helping, especially in a climate of uncertainty, as South Australia has experienced this week. It might also discourage people with mild symptoms to come forward.

So who are the “worried well”? And what should we really be doing to encourage the right people to get tested?

Read more: South Australia’s 6-day lockdown shows we need to take hotel quarantine more seriously

Who are the ‘worried well’?

The “worried well” is a term invented to describe apparently healthy people who think they might have a disease or medical problem, so see a doctor or have testing.

The term carries the whiff of a sneer, along with the implication such people are wasting health resources.

It shouldn’t be confused with hypochondria, which is chronic anxiety about your health to the level it may be considered a psychiatric illness.

The “worried well”, in contrast, are often responding to a situation that asks people to be paying special attention to an aspect of their health.

They might attend more regularly than required for cancer screening, for example. They are also more likely to believe it is important to take responsibility for their own health — a concept public health messaging actually reinforces.

Read more: How genetic testing is swelling the ranks of the ‘worried well’

We can’t dismiss people’s real anxiety

Dismissing people who seek medical attention for vague ailments or unsubstantiated risks as the “worried well” ignores the very real problem of the anxiety created by attention to particular illnesses.

Anxiety can cloud health perceptions and judgements, and prompt people to seek reassurance.

In the face of a global pandemic, where an invisible pathogen is transmitted often through pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic people, many of us are a bit anxious.

Read more: Goodbye, brain scrapers. COVID-19 tests now use gentler nose swabs

Vigilance can be useful for achieving compliance with the COVID-safe rules that have restructured our daily habits, such as physical distancing, avoiding touch and regularly washing our hands.

Anxiety is less useful if it results in people who have no known exposure and no COVID symptoms presenting for testing, particularly if there is a concern testing services may be stretched by demand.

However, applying a stigmatising label to such people is counterproductive.

Yes, it can be frustrating

In the context of an outbreak where there is urgent need to test people who have been exposed, and where testing capacity is being overwhelmed, reference to the “worried well” may be a symptom of public health officials’ understandable frustration.

It is, after all, a delicate balancing act to get everyone deemed at risk to test in a timely manner, without their ranks being swelled by those seeking reassurance who believe they were at risk but who have no clear or likely route of exposure.

But that doesn’t make the “worried well” a fair or useful label, and may work against achieving the widespread testing needed to control infection.

Read more: Why some people don’t want to take a COVID-19 test

We’d be better off promoting testing as doing the ‘right thing’

New South Wales and Victoria have promoted COVID testing as doing the “right thing”. Both emphasise people with COVID-like symptoms should be tested regardless of whether they have had a known exposure.

Similarly, the South Australian government is asking everyone with COVID-like symptoms to be tested, regardless of whether the symptoms are mild.

One of the risks of a phrase like the “worried well” is different people can interpret it in different ways. So if someone with mild COVID-like symptoms is worried they might be called one of the “worried well”, they might second-guess themselves and not get tested.

We have seen the dire consequences of people underestimating a sniffle, or mild respiratory illness, in the terrible tragedy of the Newmarch House aged-care cluster in New South Wales earlier this year.

Clear, consistent, targeted public health messaging works

The best way to ensure the right people get tested is by using very clear, consistent and targeted public health messaging.

Currently, in South Australia this means people with symptoms, people who have been identified through contact tracing, and people who have visited sites listed on the contact tracing website where exposure may have occurred.

Clear and consistent repetition of these groups is needed throughout relevant media, including the broadcast media, internet and social media.

Have the ‘worried well’ really clogged up testing?

It is not possible to assess how many of the more than 617,000 COVID tests conducted in the state so far met the criteria of credible risk according to the published criteria.

But if there is serious concern there is unnecessary testing, this needs to be swiftly addressed by explaining who needs testing and why. This needs to be repeated in multiple places, including being visible where people queue to test.

Clear and accessible pathways also need to be provided for people with COVID anxiety who don’t meet testing criteria, which the state government is beginning to address.

This is so people can be reassured in ways that do not involve unnecessary testing, and if necessary learn how they can address their concerns using the appropriate designated mental health services.

Read more: 7 ways to manage your #coronaphobia

– ref. Blaming the ‘worried well’ for long COVID testing queues won’t help anxious South Australians. This will – https://theconversation.com/blaming-the-worried-well-for-long-covid-testing-queues-wont-help-anxious-south-australians-this-will-150385

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

University of Canberra Professorial Fellow Michelle Grattan and University of Canberra Assistant Professor Caroline Fisher discuss the week in politics.

This week the pair discuss the six-day lockdown in South Australia, despite dwindling cases, and how this lockdown will affect the prime minister’s hopes for an ‘open christmas’. Also discussed is the Brereton report in misconduct by SAS operatives during the Afghanistan conflict, and how allegations of war crime will affect Australia’s national identity domestically and internationally.

– ref. VIDEO: Michelle Grattan on the South Australian lockdown and the Brereton inquiry – https://theconversation.com/video-michelle-grattan-on-the-south-australian-lockdown-and-the-brereton-inquiry-150538

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christian Swann, Associate Professor in Psychology, Southern Cross University

We often hear about people being “in the zone” when they have excelled, be it at sport, playing music, video gaming, or going for a run.

For decades, researchers have tried to find out what the zone is and how to enter it. And the assumption has been that there is one zone that we can experience.

Our research with athletes, however, suggests there may be two types of zone.

One is a “flow state”, where athletes describe effortlessly “letting it happen”. The other is a “clutch state”, where athletes report “making it happen” by purposefully and powerfully stepping up in a key moment.

Here’s how to decide which zone you need to be in — and how to get there.

Flow vs clutch states

Much research or media reporting about the zone is often based on interviews with athletes which take place some months or years after their performances have happened.

This means our understanding has been based on old, and likely faded, memories. As a result, people remember their experiences as one zone.

For our research, we interviewed athletes within days or hours of exceptional performances, allowing them to describe their experiences in much more detail.

We heard frequently of different ways of being “in the zone”, sometimes employed during different parts of a challenge. As a polar explorer told us, “They’re definitely two different states.”

A marathon runner told us:

It was like two different races.

The flow state is where you become completely absorbed in what you are doing, you perform the task effortlessly — as if you are on autopilot — and it feels like everything harmoniously clicks into place.

The clutch state was described as “making it happen”, where athletes purposefully step up their effort and concentration during important moments in a performance.

This state describes clutch performance — a common term among fans and media in sport — such as Michael Jordan’s famous buzzer-beater in the 1989 playoffs (from from about the 2:00 mark in the video below).

Read more: The psychology of the clutch athlete

Which zone should you aim for?

We would all love to be in the zone more often. Now that the research is telling us there are actually two types of zone, a first step is to recognise which zone you’re aiming for.

Clutch performances occur in certain situations under pressure, when there is an important outcome on the line. Think meeting deadlines, running to catch the last bus home, or being at the end of a race with a personal best on the line.

Flow occurs in situations where there’s novelty, exploration, and experimentation. This might be playing a golf course for the first time, running a new route, or sitting down with a blank page and brainstorming ideas. There’s no pressure or expectation — you’re free to explore.

Both zones can happen in the same event too. For example, runners can be in flow during the start or middle of a race, and then realise they have a chance of breaking their personal best or a chance to win, and flip into a clutch performance at the end — like when Shura Kitata won in a sprint finish in the men’s 2020 London Marathon (from about the 2:05 timestamp in the video below).

How can you get in each zone?

Research suggests the type of goals we set plays an important role in getting into each zone.

Clutch performances occur when we realise there is an important outcome at stake, we understand what is required, and we step up our effort. You’ve probably done this before — like pulling an all-nighter to get your assignment finished, staying late at work to meet an important deadline, or pushing hard to record a personal best.

The key to these clutch performances is having a specific goal in mind, and understanding clearly what you need to do to meet the challenge (for example, “if I can run this last kilometre in under five minutes I can break my personal best”).

Once this challenge is set, it’s quite natural for us to increase our effort and intensity in order to achieve the goal.

To get into flow, however, we need to think a bit differently. We need to create situations where we can explore — where we’re free from expectation and pressure.

An important part of this is setting open goals such as to “see how well I can do,” “see how many under par I can get”, or “see how fast I can run the next five kilometres”.

These open-ended, non-specific goals help avoid pressure and expectation, letting you gradually build your confidence, and increasing your chances of getting into flow.

– ref. Let it happen or make it happen? There’s more than one way to get in the zone – https://theconversation.com/let-it-happen-or-make-it-happen-theres-more-than-one-way-to-get-in-the-zone-149173