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What causes schizophrenia? What we know, don’t know and suspect

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sandy Matheson, Scientist and Digital Librarian, Neuroscience Research Australia

Schizophrenia is one of the world’s top ten causes of disability. It develops between the ages of 16 and 30 and often persists for life. It affects between 100,000 and 200,000 Australians.

Symptoms include delusions and hallucinations (“psychotic” symptoms), diminished emotional expression, poverty of speech and lack of purposeful action (known as “negative” symptoms), and incoherent speech and disorganised behaviour (“disorganised” symptoms). A diagnosis of schizophrenia requires at least two symptoms, including one psychotic or disorganised, to be present for at least six months. These must result in significant social or occupational dysfunction.

It is thought disruptions in brain development early in life may underlie the emergence of schizophrenia in later years. While the causes of these disruptions aren’t exactly clear, research points to several possible reasons.

Genes

Hundreds of genes have been linked to schizophrenia, but do not appear to follow typical patterns of inheritance across generations, where disorders can be predicted with confidence. Like diabetes and coronary heart disease, schizophrenia cannot be predicted from family history alone. This is because no one gene, or set of genes, has definitively been identified as causing the disorder.


Read more: Schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and depression share genetic roots: study


Family studies do provide robust evidence of a genetic contribution. For instance, across the population, a person’s risk of developing schizophrenia is 1%. If one of their parents has the disorder, the risk increases to 15%.

Twin studies have found a 50% increase in the risk of schizophrenia in the identical twin of a person with schizophrenia. Because identical twins share 100% of their DNA, this means environmental risk factors must also be involved. We do not currently know exactly which genes interact with which environmental factors, nor the extent of these interactions.

Hundreds of genes have been implicated in schizophrenia. from shutterstock.com

There is also an association between the age of the father at the time the child is born and an increased risk of schizophrenia in the child. If the father is over the age of 55, the child’s risk of schizophrenia increases by 50%. This may be due to rare mutations in paternal sperm that could lead to abnormal development, or to family factors associated with having an older father.

Obstetric complications

Various obstetric complications in utero and at birth have also been identified as risk factors for schizophrenia in the offspring. Complications during pregnancy include maternal bleeding, diabetes, rhesus incompatibility (when the mother has Rh-negative blood and the fetus Rh-positive, or vice versa), pre-eclampsia and abnormal fetal growth and development.


Read more: Blood groups beyond A, B and O: what are they and do they matter?


Maternal exposure to famine during pregnancy has been linked to schizophrenia in the offspring. Complications at delivery include uterine atony (failure of the uterus to contract after delivery), lack of oxygen to the fetus and emergency caesarean.

Most of these obstetric associations are small, and other potential influencing factors weren’t controlled for. For example, exposure to maternal infections, such as upper respiratory tract and genital or reproductive infections, has been linked to schizophrenia in the offspring. If exposed to these infections, these could be the real culprits rather than the obstetric complications described above.

Exposure to infections in childhood, such as Toxoplasma gondii (a parasitic organism carried by domestic cats) and viral central nervous system infections (such as meningitis), have also been linked to schizophrenia in adulthood. Again, if exposed, these could have led to the mental illness as opposed to complications in delivery.

Immune markers

Markers of infection and inflammation are often increased in adults with schizophrenia. This means immune system dysfunction may be involved in the development of the disorder.

Drug use

Studies following people from birth to adulthood have identified cannabis use in childhood or adolescence as a likely risk factor.

These studies have adjusted for other risk factors and taken into account intoxication effects and reverse causation (that schizophrenia may cause cannabis use). They found a dose-response effect, which means the risk of psychosis increased as the frequency of cannabis use increased. Such dose-response effects provide the most robust evidence of causation.

The neurological and biological mechanisms of cannabis use are similar to those in schizophrenia, with the same neurons showing activity.

There is strong evidence for the association between cannabis use in early life and schizophrenia. from shutterstock.com

Methamphetamines, particularly ice or crystal methamphetamine, have been linked to increased risk of persistent psychosis, and not just substance-induced psychosis. Controlled amphetamine administration that triggers temporary psychosis in healthy individuals can also be blocked by antipsychotics. This further strengthens the evidence of association.

Social factors

There is solid evidence supporting the link between having experienced child abuse, or any type of abuse that includes bullying, and schizophrenia. Stressful life events in adulthood have been associated with schizophrenia too.

People living in urban areas, particularly areas with high income inequality, also show increased risk, which may be associated with social fragmentation. Both first- and second-generation immigrants show increased risk, with surprisingly greater risk seen in the second generation.


Read more: Extreme stress in childhood is toxic to your DNA


Studies have also found a greater risk of schizophrenia in ethnic minority groups living in areas of low ethnic density than those living in high ethnic density areas. These finding indicate that sustained social marginalisation, particularly from early childhood, may have greater adverse effects than migration itself.

Stress

Social stressors can lead to biological disruptions. For instance, stress increases the release of dopamine. And evidence shows people with schizophrenia have increased dopamine production and release.

Stress is also associated with dysregulation of a brain network known as the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, which is sensitised in people with schizophrenia.

Stress associated with being raised in a harsh environment has been linked to the emergence of an inflammatory gene expression in adolescents. And people with schizophrenia show immune system dysfunction in both the early and late stages of the disorder.

Disruption to these biological systems can cause paranoid ideas, social withdrawal and other behavioural problems. These in turn cause additional stress and further biological disruption. In time, paranoid ideas can become delusional and fixed, signalling schizophrenia, particularly in the presence of other symptoms.

While much progress has been made in identifying the potential causes of schizophrenia, most of the evidence comes from population-level studies that may or may not be applicable to a particular individual. More research is required to determine the various individual pathways to schizophrenia.

– What causes schizophrenia? What we know, don’t know and suspect
– http://theconversation.com/what-causes-schizophrenia-what-we-know-dont-know-and-suspect-102651]]>

How did the fish cross the road? Our invention helps them get to the other side of a culvert

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jabin Watson, Postdoctoral researcher, The University of Queensland

Fish need to move to find food, escape predators and reach suitable habitat for reproduction. Too often, however, human activities get in the way. Dams, weirs and culverts (the tunnels and drains often found under roads) can create barriers that fragment habitats, isolating fish populations.

An Australian innovation, however, promises to help dwindling fish populations in Australia and worldwide. Our solution, recently described in Ecological Engineering, tackles one of the greatest impediments to fish migration in Australia: culverts.

A culvert crisis in our waterways

Freshwater ecosystems are one of the most heavily impacted by human activities.

Many freshwater species, such as the iconic barramundi, start their life as larvae in estuaries, then as small juveniles they make mammoth upstream migrations to freshwater habitats. In fact, about half of the freshwater fish species in southeast Australia need to migrate as part of their life cycle.

When fish are unable to pass human-made barriers, the decline in populations can be huge. For example, in the Murray-Darling Basin where there are thousands of barriers and flows are highly regulated, fish numbers are estimated to be at only 10% of pre-European numbers.

In New South Wales alone, there are more than 4,000 human-made barriers to fish passage. Over half of these are culverts. Culverts are most often installed to allow roads to cross waterways. They are designed to move water under the road, which they do quite efficiently, but often with no consideration of the requirements of the animals that live there.

When a stream enters a culvert, the flow can be concentrated so much that water flows incredibly fast. So fast, in fact, that small and juvenile fish are unable to swim against the flow and are prevented from reaching where they need to go to eat, reproduce or find safety.

A map of human-made barriers to fish passage in NSW. Image: Fisheries NSW.

Many current design ‘fixes’ come with problems

The problem culverts pose for fish is now well acknowledged by fisheries managers, and as a result efforts to make culverts fish-friendly are now widespread.

Where space allows, these new fish passage solutions can resemble a natural stream, where rocks of various sizes are added to break up the flow. Alternatively, artificial baffles (barriers to break up and slow the flow) are also commonly attached to the walls of the tunnel.

These designs do have some drawbacks. They may suit some fish sizes and species, but not all. They can be expensive to install. They also tend to catch debris, which increases maintenance costs and the risk of flooding upstream during high flow events.

A box culvert running under a road. Shutterstock

Using physics to find a new solution

We took a new approach that harnesses a property of fluid mechanics that scientists call the “boundary layer”. When a fluid moves over a solid surface, friction causes the water to slow down next to the surface. This thin layer of slower-moving water is called the boundary layer.

Where two surfaces meet, such as in the corner of a square culvert, the boundary layers of the bed and wall merge. This creates a small area of slower-moving water – the “reduced velocity zone” – right in the corner. This is quite small, but little fish can still use it and are very good at finding it.

We wanted to expand this zone (to accommodate a wider range of fish sizes) and slow the water in it further.

So, we added a third surface, generating three boundary layers that then joined. This was done by adding a square beam running the length of the channel wall, close to the floor. The boundary layers of the floor, wall and bottom surface of the beam merged to create a reduced velocity channel along the side of the main flow.

In this GIF to the right hand side, the reduced velocity zone is revealed by adding a fluorescent dye, which lingers in the slower flowing water under the square beam we added to the channel.

Testing our design in a 12 metre channel (or flume) found that water velocity in the zone below the beam was slowed by up to 30%. For small fish, this is a huge reduction.

In tests, we focused on small-bodied species, or juveniles of larger growing species, because these are considered the weakest swimming size class and most vulnerable to high water velocities created within culverts. Every species tested saw significant improvements in their ability to swim and traverse up the channel.

All of the species benefited, regardless of their body shape or swimming style.

The GIF on the right hand side here shows a juvenile Murray cod swimming upstream using the reduced velocity zone we created by adding the beam.

Creating a slower-flowing zone

Our novel fish passage design is highly effective, yet very simple. It’s a square beam installed along the length of a culvert wall, so it’s easy to incorporate into new structures and cheap to retrofit into existing culverts.

It is also much less likely to trap debris than baffles or rocks embedded in the floor of a culvert.

This is a totally new approach that has the potential for widespread application, helping to restore the connectivity of freshwater fish populations here in Australia, and overseas.

A Crimson-spotted rainbowfish navigates the fast flow by swimming under the beam we added to channel. Harriet Goodrich, Author provided You can see the beam more clearly here. A Crimson-spotted rainbowfish swims under the beam we added to slow the water flow in that area. Harriet Goodrich, Author provided

More research lies ahead. We’re hoping that by optimising the dimensions of the beam we can get even more fish through the channels, with even greater ease. We’re also planning field testing to check our laboratory findings work in the real world.

Freshwater biodiversity is greatest in the tropics. Here, developing countries are having drastic impacts on their freshwater ecosystems. The simplicity of this design may make it an affordable approach to help maintain and restore habitat connectivity in developing regions.

Matthew Gordos from NSW Fisheries contributed to this article.

– How did the fish cross the road? Our invention helps them get to the other side of a culvert
– http://theconversation.com/how-did-the-fish-cross-the-road-our-invention-helps-them-get-to-the-other-side-of-a-culvert-103433]]>

Why trackless trams are ready to replace light rail

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Newman, Professor of Sustainability, Curtin University

I began my life as an activist academic in 1979 when the Western Australian government closed the Fremantle railway, saying buses would be better. Patronage immediately fell by 30% and I ran a four-year campaign to save the railway. We won. I have been writing books and running campaigns ever since on why trains and trams are better than buses. But I have changed my mind. The technology has changed, and I think it will end the need for new light rail.

“Trackless trams” are based on technology created in Europe and China by taking innovations from high-speed rail and putting them in a bus.

I went to China to check out the CRRC trackless tram (they call it autonomous rail transit, or ART). I came back convinced it’s a transformative transit technology.


Read more: Our new PM wants to ‘bust congestion’ – here are four ways he could do that


Light rail is a connecting service. It joins up corridors or links heavy rail stations to surrounding areas and sometimes completes shorter corridors that lack rail lines. Buses were filling these functions in most cities but failing on two fronts:

  • buses were not competing with cars so cities were filling with traffic
  • buses did not enable denser development to be viable so cities were sprawling rather than redeveloping.

Light rail had many success stories of competing with cars and attracting denser development, so commentators like me did our best to make them policy-relevant (see, for example, here, here and here).

The battery-powered trackless tram, or ART, in operation in Zhuzhou, showing the trackless autonomous guidance system. CRRC Zhuzhou Institute, Author provided

So what can the new technology do?

Trackless trams are neither a tram nor a bus, though they have rubber wheels and run on streets. The high-speed rail innovations have transformed a bus into something with all the best features of light rail and none of its worst features.

It replaces the noise and emissions of buses with electric traction from batteries recharged at stations in 30 seconds or at the end of the line in 10 minutes. That could just be an electric bus, but the ART is much more than that. It has all the speed (70kph), capacity and ride quality of light rail with its autonomous optical guidance system, train-like bogies with double axles and special hydraulics and tyres.

The first trackless tram rolled out for a road test in Zhuzhou, south China’s Hunan Province, on October 23 2017.

It can slide into the station with millimetre accuracy and enable smooth disability access. It passed the ride quality test when I saw kids running up and down while it was going at 70kph – you never see this on a bus due to the sway.

A child runs along the trackless tram with the author looking on. Author provided

The autonomous features mean it is programmed, optically guided with GPS and LIDAR technologies, into moving very precisely along an invisible track. If an accident happens in the right of way a “driver” can override the steering and go around. It can also be driven to a normal bus depot for overnight storage and deep battery recharge.

The standard ART system is three carriages that can carry 300 people, but it can take five carriages and 500 people if needed. In three years of trials no impact on road surfaces has been found.

The author discusses his conclusions after visiting China to assess the operation of trackless trams.

How do trackless trams improve on light rail?

Trackless trams can avoid the worst features of light rail – disruption and cost. It can take years to lay rail tracks, causing major disruption to local economies, as is happening in Sydney.

Similar disruption has happened in the Gold Coast, Canberra and elsewhere, but ultimately light rail systems have been highly successful in attracting patronage and land development. This will happen in Sydney too when the project is complete.


Read more: Why Gold Coast light rail was worth it (it’s about more than patronage)


However, the cost has been far beyond original expectations. Sydney is costing over $120 million per kilometre. The Gold Coast was similar. Canberra and Newcastle are over $80 million per kilometre, as was the cancelled light rail in Perth.

The trackless tram costs around $6-$8 million per kilometre. And it can be put into a road system over a weekend.

The big test is whether the trackless tram can attract development around its stations as light rail can. That is the missing link in our cities. How can we unlock urban regeneration and prevent our cities sprawling ever outwards with poorer and poorer suburbs while the well-placed inner and middle suburbs become more and more expensive?

The divided city needs something that can unlock affordable medium- and high-density housing in new urban centres across the city. Following many discussions with the urban development industry, I think the trackless tram can do this. The cost can be afforded as a contribution to any new development and will bring the uplift in land value that unlocks investment.

Trackless trams could be transformative for a city.

We have developed a model that means governments do not need to find all or even any of the capital costs. This is how trams were first built as real estate projects.

But governments are needed to manage the process and create the land assembly and other urban regeneration processes as well as community engagement. This will help show where best to route such a system and how to manage it as a transit system operating for the public good. Governments can help with risk management on the financing, as in City Deals. We have produced a guide and manual for how to do this.


Read more: Sidelining citizens when deciding on transport projects is asking for trouble


Australian cities are lining up

Cities across the world are lining up to trial these trackless tram systems. So far, Australian cities moving to use them are Townsville, Hobart, Melbourne (in Fishermans Bend and other sites), Sydney (in Liverpool and perhaps Parramatta Road where the first studies were done) and Perth – where five separate corridors are competing to run the first ART trial.

The table below summarises the main characteristics of buses, light rail and trackless trams, showing the improvements the new technology provides on key criteria.

Others would rate some characteristics higher or lower, but for me the trackless tram looks a winner due to its ride quality, land development potential and cost.

Time will tell if the early demand for ART translates into a real transformative change – a disruptive innovation. It reminds me of the early days of solar and batteries, which are now completely disrupting coal power systems.

– Why trackless trams are ready to replace light rail
– http://theconversation.com/why-trackless-trams-are-ready-to-replace-light-rail-103690]]>

Mandela My Life is a welcome tribute to a hero, but avoids difficult questions

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrea Witcomb, Professor, Cultural Heritage and Museum Studies, Deakin University

Review: Mandela My Life, Melbourne Museum.


What is the role of commemorative exhibitions that focus on the life of a single change agent I asked myself, as I viewed Melbourne Museum’s latest blockbuster, Mandela My Life: The Official Exhibition.

The result of an international collaboration between Museums Victoria, the Nelson Mandela Foundation and IEG exhibitions, the exhibition is billed as a major international event that “will commemorate, illuminate and most importantly share Nelson Mandela’s living legacy with the world” on the centenary of his birth.

At first glance I doubted that these aims could be achieved. The tone of the exhibition could be accused of being hagiographic, given the ostensible reason for the exhibition – to celebrate the centenary of Mandela’s birth – as well as its narrative structures, which blended Mandela’s own words with the editorialising of the Mandela Foundation. This lent support to the claim that this exhibition was the “official” version of how to interpret the meaning of Mandela’s life.

Keith Bernstein

Read more: Revisiting Nelson Mandela’s roots: a photographic exploration


Organised chronologically, the exhibition follows Mandela’s life. It begins with his birth in the Transkei region of South Africa, where he was initiated into his tribe’s traditional cultural practices and knowledge systems and attended a mission school.

The exhibition then follows him as he decides to leave his homeland for Johannesburg, where his experiences under apartheid radicalised him, leading on towards his role as a leader in the African National Congress, and his eventual imprisonment. His resilience while in prison and his leadership of the new post-apartheid South Africa led him to become the revered figure he is today.

This simple chronological narrative is given emotive force by three elements that come into play.

The first of these is the sound of Mandela’s voice at key moments. These include his famous Rivonia Trial speech in which he stated that he was prepared to die for the anti-apartheid movement.

Others are his memories of his childhood in the Transkei, his reflections on his time in prison, and his speech when he was freed, where his conciliatory approach to ending apartheid set the tone for what was to follow. Mandela’s voice guides us through the exhibition, supported by a rich display of personal photographs, letters and personal objects carefully preserved by the Mandela Foundation.

Boxing glove signed by Muhammad Ali. Nelson Mandela Foundation. Photo: Jon Augier/Museums Victoria

These are then contrasted with the evidence of apartheid from material borrowed or reproduced from other collections and media organisations, which provides the second element. The role of these sources is to lend authority to the human rights claim that apartheid was an unjust system – they are the evidence of what goes wrong when equality between humans is not respected.

The third element is the visitor – a visitor who already knows the end of the story and believes in its righteousness. Mandela was on the right side of history.

None of this is wrong of course. But the desire to eulogise, as often appears to be the case in this exhibition, does not allow space for questions that might allow for a fuller explication of the nature of Mandela’s legacy and its relevance beyond South Africa.


Read more: Centenary of Nelson Rolihlahla Mandela’s birth: a tribute in poems


For instance, the final gallery shows a series of 16 paintings by John Myer, retelling Mandela’s life story and giving body to South African’s pride in the achievements of this extraordinary man. This could have been the moment, however, when his legacy could have been broadened out and key themes explored and thus gone beyond the outpouring of grief on his death, captured by the 95 messages of condolence, one for each year of his life – available in the penultimate gallery via a table full of telephone handsets.

Prepared to Die, from the series Mandela A Life’s Journey, by John Meyer. Melbourne Museum

Beyond the obvious answer – he was a hero who fought apartheid and won – what is it that those fighting for human rights can learn? What are the difficult questions his activism raises for those fighting on behalf of the oppressed? And, finally, are there other contexts in which his life might have meaning?

In an Australian context, some of the answers were alluded to in the speeches on opening night, which pointed to the relevance of Mandela’s activism for Australians fighting for Indigenous rights. Such speeches go some way towards explaining why the Melbourne Museum, which is aligned with human rights museums and whose First Peoples Gallery is an eloquent articulation of the need for treaty, is host to this exhibition.

But I would also argue that Mandela’s life is relevant to all of us at this particular juncture in time – a time when we need to hang on to the hope that change is both necessary and possible and that the actions of ordinary, everyday people can bring it about. This is as true for situations of unequal power relations as for other complex problems, such as what to do about climate change.

Mandela was an extraordinary man – but he was also supported by many others, both within and outside South Africa, all of whom believed in the necessity of change. Mandela is important because we need to have figures who show us that hope, resilience and leadership is still possible when those values are valued by all of us.

The exhibition does not make these points itself – but perhaps it is enough that such points can be made by those who visit it and reflect upon it. Even so, I wish there was less emphasis on the authorised, official nature of the exhibition, which, for me, closed down the potential for some really interesting discussions on the nature of change and how to achieve it.


Mandela My Life is being exhibited at the Melbourne Museum until March 3 2019.

– Mandela My Life is a welcome tribute to a hero, but avoids difficult questions
– http://theconversation.com/mandela-my-life-is-a-welcome-tribute-to-a-hero-but-avoids-difficult-questions-103826]]>

Duterte critic Trillanes second senator to be arrested – for 2003 ‘rebellion’

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Senator Antonio Trillanes … a rebellion charge against Trillanes has been revived after President Rodrigo Duterte issued Proclamation No. 572, revoking a presidential amnesty. Image: NCRPO

By Rambo Talabong in Manila

Outspoken critic Senator Antonio Trillanes IV has become the second opposition senator to be arrested under the Duterte presidency.

A team led by Makati police chief Senior Superintendent Rogelio Simon confirmed that the police served the arrest warrant on Trillanes yesterday for the charge of rebellion, hours after the document was released by Makati Regional Trial Court Branch 150 Executive Judge Elmo Alameda.

Senate Sergeant-at-Arms Jose Balajadia told reporters that the police followed protocol. He said the National Capital Region Police Office director Chief Superintendent Guillermo Eleazar served the warrant on Trillanes.

READ MORE: Why the Senate backed Trillanes but not De Lima vs Duterte – by Camille Elemia

Eleazar said in an interview on ANC that Trillanes voluntarily went with the arresting team. The senator had earlier said he would not resist arrest providing police presented a the proper warrant.

Trillanes was brought to the Makati City Central Police Station for charging procedures.

He was then taken to Makati RTC Branch 150 to post the bail of P200,000 (NZ$5600). He was accompanied by fellow opposition senators Kiko Pangilinan, Paolo Benigno Aquino IV, and Risa Hontiveros; as well as his Magdalo party colleagues.

-Partners-

The judge signed Trillanes’ release order before 5 pm.

Rebellion charge revived
The rebellion charge against Trillanes was revived after President Rodrigo Duterte issued Proclamation No. 572, revoking an amnesty granted to the senator in connection to the 2003 Oakwood mutiny and the 2007 Manila Peninsula siege.

Trillanes had questioned then Police Chief Ronald Del Rosa about extrajudicial killings in Duterte’s bloody, protracted war on drugs, and had also organised the testimony of former members of an alleged death squad that operated under the president while he was mayor of the city of Davao in the country’s south, reports CNN Philippines.

Another opposition senator, Leila de Lima, also a fierce critic of Duterte, has been detained in Camp Crame since February 2017, for drug charges.

Rambo Talabong is a journalist with the independent news website Rappler. Asia Pacific Report publishes under a Creative Commons licence.

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Battle won. Our budget woes are behind us

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Warren Hogan, Industry Professor, University of Technology Sydney

The government’s final budget outcome for 2017-18 is a deficit of A$10.1 billion. That’s an extraordinary A$8.1 lower than the May estimate just months ago, and more than A$19 billion lower than when the 2017-18 budget was originally put together the previous May.

The deficit, a mere 0.6% of gross domestic product, is the smallest in the run of ten that began in the global financial crisis of 2008-09.

The result tells us something important about the Australian economy ten years on from the crisis.


Read more: Budget deficit comes in at $10.1 billion, in boost for early return to surplus


First, it’s performing better than expected.

Not only is it growing faster than most forecasters expected, it has been producing more jobs and less inflation than such growth would have produced in the past.

This has allowed much low interest rates than would have once been the case and supported investment across the economy.

Back to normal

So good is the government’s financial position that the heavy lifting has been all but been done.

A return to budget balance is entirely possible this financial year.

Indeed, for most purposes the budget is already balanced.

Federal government revenues and expenses are each about 25% of GDP. Given the complexity and natural variability of the budget and the economy, an outcome within 0.5% of GDP from balance is basically in balance.

The fact that two-thirds of the originally projected 2017-18 budget deficit has vanished due to “forecast error” makes the point.

Fiscal policy is effectively back to normal, with plenty of spending power in reserve should the economy deteriorate.

Better confidence, for now

Solid government finances will support confidence, not least among households that are used to worrying about large deficits boosting future tax burdens or eating away at government services.

That isn’t to say that everything is baked in.

The economy and government finances can go the other way. But the task of budget repair, which started years ago under Treasurer Wayne Swan, is virtually complete. Any further substantive budget tightening will produce growing surpluses rather than shrinking deficits.

More profits, less welfare

Over the past 15 months the big improvement in the government’s financial position has come in two phases.

The first surprise was a revenue windfall received last summer. This was mostly because of higher commodity prices and the boost this gave to corporate profits.

Corporate income tax receipts are 8.7% higher than originally projected, resulting in an almost A$7 billion windfall for the budget. This represents about a third of the A$19 billion budget improvement.


Read more: Morrison’s return to surplus built on the back of higher tax – Parliamentary Budget Office


This was well known by the time of the May budget and was responsible for most of the improvement in the budget bottom line between May 2017 and May 2018.

The next phase was a substantial drop in government payments near the end of the financial year just concluded.

This was not factored into the May 2018 budget. Most of it is made up of lower welfare and social security payments, partly in response to the stronger economy, and partly due to much lower than anticipated spending on disability assistance.

Disability-related payments, both in terms of payments to states and National Disability Insurance Scheme spending, are about A$3 billion lower than expected in May last year.

And improvement all around

The rest of the good news is spread across the board. Income tax receipts are higher due to stronger employment growth. The government has collected more duties and excise than it expected. Pension payments have been a little lower than expected, as have infrastructure-related payments to the states.

Because the presentation of the final budget outcomes does not come with any formal update of budget forecasts, the treasurer and his finance minister had very little to say about the government’s fiscal strategy other than to reinforce that its jobs, growth and budget repair strategy is on track.

They’ll say more in the midyear economic and fiscal update (also called MYEFO) in December.

Question time

Ministers Frydenberg and Cormann were asked a number of questions at their Tuesday press conference that they chose not to answer properly.

I thought I would take the liberty of doing it for them.

REPORTER: So does this outcome increase the likelihood that you will return to surplus sooner than predicted?

MY ANSWER: It most certainly it does. The better result is mainly due to a stronger-than-expected economy. At the time of the budget in May 2017 the government had forecast economic growth of 2.75% for the 2017-18 financial year. As it turned out, growth came in at 2.9% and we are taking strong momentum into 2018-19.

It won’t take much to nudge the budget into surplus this year, that is, a year earlier than forecast. Simply factoring in the better baseline performance of the budget from last year should produce a deficit for 2018-19 of around A$5-8 billion. If the recent trends of higher commodity prices, a lower Australian dollar and stronger domestic economic activity persist, as they appear to be doing, then we will easily get a surplus this year.

Complicating the picture is the political cycle. With a government well behind in the polls and an election due in the next six months or so, it will be hard to resist the temptation to spend some of this recent budget improvement.

It will become a political judgment for the new prime minister and his cabinet. Is the political benefit of presenting a budget surplus greater than the electoral impact of new spending measures?

REPORTER: And do you continue to adhere to the budget discipline that all new spending must be accompanied by savings in equal amount?

MY ANSWER: The government should be commended for keeping real spending growth to just 1.9%, the lowest in a generation. It is projecting it to fall even further, to around 1.6% over the next few years. With a tough election contest ahead, my guess is that we may see some slippage on government spending.

REPORTER: You are out by 40% to 45% on the deficit you published in May this year. That’s a wild variation in just 6 weeks. Should Treasury be doing better than that, basically?

MY ANSWER: Revenues total just under A$450 billion and expenses total just over $450 billion. The deficit figure is the result of the calculation of the small difference between those two big numbers.

Rather than thinking about an A$8 billion miss on a A$18 billion deficit we should be thinking about A$8 billion on the $450 billion revenue and expense base.

Instead of a 40% variation, the real variation is less than 2%.

Given that the Treasury only had the March quarter national accounts at its disposal when pulling together the May Budget forecasts and considering the propensity of the Bureau of Statistics to revise the national accounts, the fact that the misses are less than 2% is actually pretty amazing.

The economy is complex and ever changing.

Economic forecasting is hard. Understanding the relationship between government revenues and an economy experiencing significant industrial structural change is far from a perfect science.

– Battle won. Our budget woes are behind us
– http://theconversation.com/battle-won-our-budget-woes-are-behind-us-103824]]>

Antarctica’s ‘moss forests’ are drying and dying

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Melinda Waterman, Associate lecturer, University of Wollongong

The lush moss beds that grow near East Antarctica’s coast are among the only plants that can withstand life on the frozen continent. But our new research shows that these slow-growing plants are changing at a far faster rate than anticipated.

We began monitoring plant ecosystems 18 years ago, near Australia’s Casey Station in the Windmill Islands, East Antarctica.

Casey Station is on East Antarctica’s coast. Click map to zoom. Australian Antarctic Data Centre

As we report in Nature Climate Change today, within just 13 years we observed significant changes in the composition and health of these moss beds, due to the drying effects of weather changes prompted by damage to the ozone layer.

Living on the edge

Visitors to Antarctica expect to see a stark landscape of white and blue: ice, water, and sky. But in some places summer brings a surprisingly verdant green, as lush mosses emerge from under their winter snow blanket.

Because it contains the best moss beds on continental Antarctica, Casey Station is dubbed the Daintree of the Antarctic. Individual plants have been growing here for at least 100 years; fertilised by ancient penguin poo.


Read more: Drones help scientists check the health of Antarctic mosses, revealing climate change clues


Antarctic mosses are extremophiles, the only plants that can survive the continent’s frigid winters. They live in a frozen desert where life-sustaining water is mostly locked up as ice, and they grow at a glacial pace – typically just 1 mm a year.

These mosses are home to tardigrades and other organisms, all of which survive harsh conditions by drying out and becoming dormant. When meltwater is available, mosses soak it up like a sponge and spring back to life.

The short summer growing season runs from December to March. Day temperatures finally rise above freezing, providing water from melting snow. Overnight temperatures drop below zero and mosses refreeze. Harsh, drying winds reach speeds of 200 km per hour. This is life on the edge.

Tough turf

When we first began monitoring the moss beds, they were dominated by Schistidium antarctici, a species found only in Antarctica. These areas were typically submerged through most of the summer, favouring the water-loving Schistidium. But as the area dries, two hardy, global species have encroached on Schistidium’s turf.

Like tree rings, mosses preserve a record of past climate in their shoots. From this we found nearly half of the mosses showed evidence of drying.

Healthy green moss has turned red or grey, indicating that plants are under stress and dying. This is due to the area drying because of colder summers and stronger winds. This increased desertification of East Antarctica is caused by both climate change and ozone depletion.

Moss beds, with moss in the foreground showing signs of stress. Sharon Robinson, Author provided

Since the 1970s, man-made substances have thinned Earth’s protective sunscreen, the ozone layer, creating a hole that appears directly over Antarctica during the southern spring (September–November). This has dramatically affected the southern hemisphere’s climate. Westerly winds have moved closer to Antarctica and strengthened, shielding much of continental East Antarctica from global warming.

Our study shows that these effects are contributing to drying of East Antarctica, which is in turn altering plant communities and affecting the health of some native plant species. East Antarctica’s mosses can be viewed as sentinels for a rapidly drying coastal climate.

But there is good news. The ozone layer is slowly recovering as pollutants are phased out thanks to the 1987 Montreal Protocol. What is likely to happen to Antarctic coastal climates when ozone levels recover fully by the middle of this century?


Read more: The ozone hole leaves a lasting impression on southern climate


Unlike other polar regions, East Antarctica has so far experienced little or no warming.

Antarctic ice-free areas are currently less than 1% of the continent but are predicted to expand over the coming century. Our research suggests that this may isolate moss beds from snow banks, which are their water reservoirs. Ironically, increased ice melt may be bad news for some Antarctic mosses.

East Antarctica is drying – first at the hands of ozone depletion, and then by climate change. How its native mosses fare in the future depends on how we control greenhouse gas emissions. But with decisive action and continued monitoring, we can hopefully preserve these fascinating ecosystems for the future.

– Antarctica’s ‘moss forests’ are drying and dying
– http://theconversation.com/antarcticas-moss-forests-are-drying-and-dying-103751]]>

Poll wrap: Labor drops in Newspoll but still has large lead; NSW ReachTEL poll tied 50-50

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne

This week’s Newspoll, conducted September 20-23 from a sample of 1,680, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since last fortnight. Primary votes were 39% Labor (down three), 36% Coalition (up two), 10% Greens (steady) and 6% One Nation (steady).

This is the Coalition’s 41st successive Newspoll loss. In Malcolm Turnbull’s last four Newspolls as PM, the Coalition trailed Labor by just 51-49. In Scott Morrison’s first three as PM, Labor has had two 56-44 leads followed by a 54-46 lead. This Newspoll contrasts with last week’s Ipsos, which gave Labor just 31% of the primary vote and the Greens 15%.


Read more: Poll wrap: Labor’s lead shrinks in federal Ipsos, but grows in Victorian Galaxy; Trump’s ratings slip


44% were satisfied with Morrison (up three) and 39% were dissatisfied (steady), for a net approval of +5. After rising ten points last fortnight, Bill Shorten’s net approval slumped eight points this week to -22. Morrison led Shorten as better PM by 45-32 (43-37 last fortnight). Morrison also led Shorten by 46-31 on who is the more “authentic” leader.

Morrison is currently benefiting from a personal ratings “honeymoon” effect, while Shorten’s honeymoon is long over. However, Morrison’s ratings are far worse than for Turnbull’s first two Newspolls as PM, with Turnbull’s net approval at +18 then +25, compared with Morrison’s +2 and +5. Honeymoon polling is not predictive of the PM’s long-term ratings.

On September 5, the ABS reported that the Australian economy grew by 0.9% in the June quarter for a 3.4% annual growth rate in the year to June. On September 13, the ABS reported that 44,000 jobs were created in August in seasonally-adjusted terms, with the unemployment rate remaining at 5.3%.

Greg Jericho wrote in The Guardian that these figures are very good for the government. The narrowing of Labor’s lead to 51-49 in Turnbull’s last four Newspolls as PM probably reflected good economic news as well as a period where the Coalition was relatively unified.

Given Morrison’s relatively good personal ratings and the economy, the Coalition is performing far worse than would be expected on voting intentions. In the US, Donald Trump’s ratings are far worse than they should be given the strength of the US economy. Perhaps being very right-wing is not a vote winner.


Read more: Polls update: Trump’s ratings held up by US economy; Australian polls steady


Essential poll: 53-47 to Labor

This week’s Essential poll, conducted September 20-23 from a sample of 1,030, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since last fortnight. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (up one), 36% Labor (down one) 12% Greens (up two) and 5% One Nation (down three).

Essential is using 2016 election preferences for its two party estimates, while Newspoll assigns One Nation preferences about 60-40 to the Coalition. Essential has probably been rounded down to 53% to Labor this week, while Newspoll has been rounded up to 54%.

70% in Essential had at least some trust in the federal police, 67% in the state police, 61% in the High Court and 54% in the ABC. At the bottom, 28% had at least some trust in federal parliament and in religious organisations, 25% in trade unions and just 15% in political parties. Since October 2017, trust in local councils is up four points, but trust in political parties is down three.

By 61-21, voters would support the Liberals adopting quotas to increase the number of Liberal women in parliament. By 37-26, voters would support a new law enshrining religious freedoms, but most people would currently have no idea what this debate is about.

45% thought corruption was widespread in politics, with 36% saying the same about the banking and finance sector, 29% about unions and 25% about large corporations. The establishment of an independent federal corruption body was supported by an overwhelming 82-5.

By 78-14, voters agreed that there should be laws requiring equal pay for men and women in the same position. However, voters also agreed 47-44 that gender equality has come far enough already.

53% approve of constitutional amendment to separate government and religion

The NSW Rationalists commissioned YouGov Galaxy, which also does Newspoll, for a poll question about separation of government and religion. The survey was conducted from August 30 to September 3 from a national sample of 1,027.

The question asked was, “Australia has no formal recognition of separation of government and religion. Would you approve or disapprove of a constitutional amendment to formally separate government and religion?”

53% approved of such an amendment, just 14% disapproved and 32% were unsure. Morrison advocates new laws to protect religious freedom, but this poll question does not suggest there is any yearning within Australia for more religion. The same-sex marriage plebiscite, in which Yes to SSM won by 61.6% to 38.4%, was a huge defeat for social conservatism.

More results and analysis are on my personal website.

Phelps to preference Liberals in Wentworth

The Wentworth byelection will be held on October 20. On September 21, high-profile independent candidate Kerryn Phelps announced that she would recommend preferences to the Liberals. Just five days earlier, Phelps had said voters should put the Liberals last.

Until her preference decision, Phelps had appeared to be a left-wing independent candidate, but Wentworth is unlikely to be won from the left. This decision will cost Phelps left-wing support; the question is whether she wins over enough right-wing voters who dislike the Liberals or the Liberal candidate, Dave Sharma, to compensate for the loss of left-wing voters.

By backflipping on the “put the Liberals last” message, Phelps has made an issue of her preferences that may dog her for the rest of the campaign.

Phelps’ preferences will not be distributed if she finishes first or second, and Labor preferences will still assist her against the Liberals. If primary votes have Sharma well ahead, and Labor and Phelps in a close race for second, Phelps is now more likely to be excluded owing to Greens preferences. If the final two are the Liberals and Labor, Phelps’ preferences will help the Liberals, relative to her previous position of putting them last.

NSW ReachTEL poll: 50-50 tie

The New South Wales election will be held in March 2019. The first state poll in six months is a ReachTEL poll for The Sun-Herald, conducted September 20 from a sample of 1,630. The Coalition and Labor were tied at 50-50 by 2015 election preference flows, a two-point gain for Labor since a March ReachTEL.

Primary votes were 35.1% Coalition (down 6.8%), 31.5% Labor (down 1.0%), 10.2% Greens (up 0.8%), 6.1% Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, 4.2% One Nation (down 0.9%), 7.0% for all Others and 5.9% undecided. If undecided voters are excluded, primary votes become 37.3% Coalition, 33.5% Labor, 10.8% Greens, 6.5% Shooters and 4.5% One Nation.

Opposition Leader Luke Foley had a very narrow 50.2-49.8 lead over incumbent Gladys Berejiklian as better premier, a 2.5% gain for Foley since March. ReachTEL’s forced choice better PM/Premier questions usually give opposition leaders better results than polls that do not use a forced choice.

It is likely that the federal leadership crisis had some impact on NSW state polling, but we do not know how much, as the last NSW state poll was in March.

As I wrote last week, independent Joe McGirr defeated the Liberals in the September 8 Wagga Wagga byelection by a 59.6-40.4 margin. The Labor vs Liberal two party vote gave Labor a narrow 50.1-49.9 win, a 13.0% swing to Labor since the 2015 election.

– Poll wrap: Labor drops in Newspoll but still has large lead; NSW ReachTEL poll tied 50-50
– http://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-labor-drops-in-newspoll-but-still-has-large-lead-nsw-reachtel-poll-tied-50-50-103597]]>

Budget deficit comes in at $10.1 billion, in boost for early return to surplus

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The budget outcome for 2017-18 shows a deficit of A$10.1 billion – dramatically less than expected in May, and just 0.6% of GDP.

In this year’s May budget, a mere four months ago, the outcome for the last financial year was forecast to be just over A$18 billion, already revised well down on the more than A$29 billion estimate in the 2017 budget.

The drivers of the better-than-anticipated result were stronger revenue and lower spending than earlier expected.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and Finance Minister Mathias Corman said in a statement: “At A$10.1 billion, just 0.6 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), the underlying cash deficit is the smallest in ten years.

“Stronger economic growth and much stronger employment growth than anticipated at the time of the 2017-18 budget have driven increases in personal income tax and company tax receipts, with total receipts $13.4 billion higher than expected at the time of the budget.

“Total payments were A$6.9 billion lower than forecast at budget time, including as a result of lower welfare payments with more Australians in paid work. Welfare dependency for working age Australians is now at its lowest level in 25 years and in 2017-18, there were 90,000 fewer working age Australians on welfare,” they said.

“Real GDP in 2017-18 was stronger than anticipated in the 2017-18 budget.”

Last week Standard & Poor’s ratings agency reaffirmed Australia’s triple A credit rating. Frydenberg said Australia was one of only 10 countries with a AAA credit rating from the three major agencies.

He told a news conference that the budget outcome confirmed the budget was on the path back to balance in 2019-20.

The mid-year budget update will come in December, with the revisions at that time setting the scene for the run into the election a few months later, with the government making economic and fiscal management a key plank in its campaign.

– Budget deficit comes in at $10.1 billion, in boost for early return to surplus
– http://theconversation.com/budget-deficit-comes-in-at-10-1-billion-in-boost-for-early-return-to-surplus-103836]]>

Economic growth and ‘Trump-proofing’ – why the latest inter-Korea summit matters

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Benjamin Habib, Lecturer in International Relations, Department of Politics and Philosophy, La Trobe University

Last week’s fifth inter-Korean summit provided another round of iconic moments in a year of extraordinary drama in Korean Peninsula politics.

From Moon Jae-in’s address at the Arirang Mass Games to the leaders’ photo-op on the shores of the crater lake at Paekdusan, the three-day summit produced plenty of symbolism. More importantly, it increased the detail and scope of confidence-building measures agreed in the earlier Panmunjom Declaration.


Read more: US-North Korea summit agreement is most revealing for what it leaves out


Much of the commentary in the wake of the summit has focused on what the Pyongyang Declaration means for the potential denuclearisation of North Korea. To view the summit through the narrow lens of nuclear politics would be to overlook the significance of deeper patterns that are emerging from inter-Korean détente.

Filling in the details

The first notable feature of the Pyongyang Declaration is the increased depth of military-to-military confidence-building measures, as articulated in its attached annex. One of the questions emerging from the Panmunjom Declaration related to how that document’s vague commitments to cooperation would be fleshed out in detail.

In the Pyongyang Declaration are measures for increased conflict management procedures and greater operational level consultation. This includes a series of measures along the demilitarised zone (DMZ) and Northern Limit Line maritime boundary to reduce the risk of confrontation.

A holistic approach to security

There is a clear human security focus in the breadth and depth of the Pyongyang Declaration that has moved inter-Korean engagement well beyond denuclearisation. Human security is about protecting individuals and communities from threats to their well-being and survival. This might be from traditional security threats of war or persecution, or from non-traditional threats such as food insecurity, inadequate housing and sanitation, environmental degradation, or pandemic disease.

Growing the web of inter-Korean economic links can improve economic opportunities for North Korean citizens and create mutual interests that decrease the appetite of both governments for conflict. Breaking ground on the construction of east and west transportation corridors was an example of this, along with reopening the Kaesong industrial zone and Geumgangsan tourist precinct.

What’s new here is the establishment of special economic zones and tourist precincts. A large number of South Korean firms are ready to seize on new business opportunities in the North that may result from these openings. For the North, these projects fit within Kim Jong-un’s objective of economic modernisation.

Also of interest is the addition of cooperation on environmental capacity-building and public health. As Myeong Soojeong from the Korea Environment Institute has argued, South and North Korea share connected ecosystems (ecology transcends borders). Environmental degradation in North Korea is likely to increase the cost to South Korea in the event of reunification.

Cooperation on public health and pandemic disease prevention would also benefit the well-being of North Korean people, especially given the North’s well-documented outbreaks of tuberculosis.

From a South Korean perspective, the thinking behind broad-based engagement is that a comprehensive security strategy that improves the human well-being of North Korean citizens can reduce the threat posed by North Korea. By building on these mutual interests, the two Koreas give themselves space to pull back from the dangerous insecurity spirals that have made Korean Peninsula politics so volatile.

Appealing to multiple audiences

The expansion of the scope of engagement plays well politically for domestic constituencies on both sides of the DMZ. Moon has staked enormous political capital on rapprochement with the North, while Kim needs to bring the people with him to legitimise his economic modernisation program and see off internal factions.

From this perspective, the expansion of the family reunion program will be popular on both sides of the DMZ and provide valuable opportunities for separated families to reconnect.

The cultural and sports exchanges are largely symbolic trust-building activities. But these are also an important piece of diplomatic signalling to the international community that the process is serious and now is not a time for confrontation.

The announcement of a joint bid to host the 2032 Summer Olympic Games is particularly poignant, given the importance of this year’s Pyeongchang Winter Olympics in helping to defuse red-hot tensions that had bubbled up through 2017.

We should also not forget the influence of the 1988 Seoul Olympics in opening a greater window of political opportunity for democratisation in South Korea.

Power transitions

It is intriguing that confidence-building measures related to the North’s nuclear program are not mentioned until well into the Pyongyang Declaration. North Korea’s agreement to independently verified dismantlement of its missile launch platform at Dongchang-ri/Sohae is noteworthy. But promises to dismantle infrastructure at the Yongbyon nuclear site are conditional on reciprocal action from the United States, which is far from certain.

Indeed, apart from these two concessions, the Pyongyang Declaration is not really about denuclearisation at all. What’s increasingly clear is that inter-Korean détente is now driving Korean Peninsula politics, and increasingly shaping the agenda of US interactions with the DPRK. The US-ROK alliance remains in place, but the goalposts of this relationship are moving.

All the hype surrounding inter-Korean economic integration notwithstanding, North Korea is not a virgin territory that South Korea can lay claim to. The DPRK is already strongly integrated into China’s economic orbit through trade corridors, Chinese direct investment and the reality of the Chinese yuan as the North’s de facto currency.

By connecting to North Korea through greater infrastructure links, the South will also be opening a connection with China’s vast land-based transportation network and beyond. The geopolitical implications of inter-Korean economic cooperation bringing South Korea closer to the Sinosphere have not received as much attention as they might.


Read more: Summit on, then off, now on again? The seemingly endless game-playing of US-North Korea relations


That the inter-Korean process might need to be Trump-proofed illustrates a growing distance between South Korea and the United States in the Trump era. One could indeed make the case that both the South and North Korean governments may not see the US as a credible negotiating partner at this time, given US President Donald Trump’s elastic foreign policy positions, his record of alienating allies, and the likely lack of domestic support for engagement in US foreign policy circles. This was well illustrated by the recent address by Harry Harris, US ambassador to the ROK, stressing “complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearisation” (CVID).

Extraordinarily, Washington’s insistence on CVID now seems out of date given the growing momentum of inter-Korean détente. Moon appears determined to push on with engagement regardless of the US position.

This would have been unthinkable under previous American administrations. Such are the shifting goalposts of power in world affairs in the Trump era.

– Economic growth and ‘Trump-proofing’ – why the latest inter-Korea summit matters
– http://theconversation.com/economic-growth-and-trump-proofing-why-the-latest-inter-korea-summit-matters-103598]]>

Everything he does, he does it for us. Why Bryan Adams is on to something important about copyright

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rebecca Giblin, ARC Future Fellow; Associate Professor, Monash University

Last Tuesday Bryan Adams entered the copyright debate.

That’s Bryan Adams the singer and songwriter, the composer of “(Everything I Do) I Do It for You”, and “Summer of ’69”.

Authors, artists and composers often have little bargaining power, and are often pressured to sign away their rights to their publisher for life.

Adams appeared before a Canadian House of Commons committee to argue they should be entitled to reclaim ownership of their creations 25 years after they sign them away.

No control until after you are dead

In Canada they get them back 25 years after they are dead, when the rights automatically revert to their estate. In Australia our law used to do the same, but we removed the provision in 1968. In our law, authors are never given back what they give away.

Some publishers voluntarily put such clauses in their contracts, but that is something they choose to do, rather than something the law mandates.

Australia’s copyright term is long. For written works it lasts for 70 years after the death of the author. It was extended from 50 years after death as part of the Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement.

What copyright is for

Copyright is a government-granted limited monopoly to control certain uses of an author’s work.

It is meant to achieve three main things: incentivise the creation of works, reward authors, and benefit society through access to knowledge and culture.

Incentive and reward are not the same thing.

The incentive needn’t be big

The copyright term needed to provide an incentive to create something is pretty short.

The Productivity Commission has estimated the average commercial life of a piece of music, for example is two to five years. Most pieces of visual art yield commercial income for just two years, with distribution highly skewed toward the small number with a longer life. The average commercial life of a film is three to six years. For books, it is typically 1.4 to five years; 90% of books are out of print after two years.

It is well accepted by economists that a term of about 25 years is the maximum needed to incentivise the creation of works.

But the rewards, for creators, should be

The second purpose is to provide a reward to authors, beyond the bare minimum incentive needed to create something. Quite reasonably, we want to give them a bit extra as thanks for their work.

But, in practice authors, artists and composers are often obliged to transfer all or most of their rights to corporate investors such as record labels or book publishers in order to receive anything at all.

In the film and television industries it is not unusual for creators to have to sign over their whole copyright, forever – and not just here on Earth but throughout the universe at large.


Read more: Life plus 70: who really benefits from copyright’s long life?


It means investors don’t just take what is needed to incentivise their work but most of the rewards meant for the author as well.

This isn’t new. Creators have been complaining since at least 1737 that too often they have no choice but to transfer their rights before anyone knows what they are worth.

Other countries do it better

In recognition of these realities, many countries, including the US, have enacted author-protective laws that, for example, let creators reclaim their rights back after a certain amount of time, or after publishers stop exploiting them, or after royalties stop flowing. Other laws guarantee creators “fair” or “reasonable” payment.

Australia stands out for having no author protections at all.


Read more: Australian copyright laws have questionable benefits


Canada’s law already protects authors by giving rights back to their heirs 25 years after they die. Bryan Adams’s proposal is to change one word in that law. Instead of copyright reverting to the creator 25 years after “death”, he wants it to revert 25 years after “transfer”.

Copyright is meant to be about ensuring access

Handing rights back to creators after 25 years would not only help them secure more of copyright’s rewards, it would also help achieve copyright’s other major aim: to promote widespread access to knowledge and culture.

Right now our law isn’t doing a very good job of that, particularly for older material.

Copyright lasts for so long, and distributors lose financial interest in works so fast, that they are often neither properly distributed nor available for anyone else to distribute.


Read more: Australian copyright reform stuck in an infinite loop


In the book industry my research into almost 100,000 titles has found that publishers license older e-books to libraries on the same terms and for the same prices as newer ones. That includes “exploding” licences which force books to be deleted from collections even if nobody ever borrows them.

Publishers are interested in maximising their share of library collections budgets, not ensuring that a particular author continues to get paid or a particular title continues to get read.

As a result libraries often forgo buying older (but still culturally valuable) books even though they would have bought them if the publisher cared enough to make them available at a reasonable price.

Restricting access to books is not in the interests of authors or readers.

… and directing rewards where they are needed

If rights reverted after 25 years, as I have proposed and as Adams now proposes, authors would be able to do things like license their books directly to libraries in exchange for fair remuneration – say $1 per loan.

If authors weren’t interested in reclaiming their rights, they could automatically default to a “cultural steward” that would use the proceeds to directly support new creators via prizes, fellowships and grants – much like Victor Hugo envisaged with his idea of a “paid public domain” back in 1878.

We could do it all without changing the total copyright term imposed on us by the Australia-US Free Trade Agreement and other treaties. We could get creators paid more fairly while keeping Australian culture alive.

Reversion is the key.

– Everything he does, he does it for us. Why Bryan Adams is on to something important about copyright
– http://theconversation.com/everything-he-does-he-does-it-for-us-why-bryan-adams-is-on-to-something-important-about-copyright-103674]]>

Aged care failures show how little we value older people – and those who care for them

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bridget Laging, PhD Candidate, ACEBAC La Trobe University, La Trobe University

As the royal commission begins investigating the failures of the residential aged care sector, it is important such a review also considers the broader socio-political factors that have contributed to this crisis.

The commission needs to go beyond the institutional problems at individual aged care facilities, as these are a symptom of a much broader rejection of ageing in society and marginalisation of older people.

Negative stereotyping of older people is reinforced in the media, and this both informs and reflects societal attitudes. In Western society especially, we fear dependency, invisibility and dying. Aged care is a silo of these fears. And until it affects us personally, we ignore it.

How older people are marginalised in society

We have an expiry date in our society. This is not the date we die, but a time when our skills and knowledge are no longer considered to be valid or useful. Our value is largely determined by our economic contributions to society. But for many older people, this is difficult to demonstrate because they’re no longer in the workforce.

The economic impact of societal rejection of ageing is significant. Modelling by Price Waterhouse Cooper indicates that Australia’s gross domestic product would increase by almost 5% if people were supported to work longer. And data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics reveal that many Australians would like to retire later if they could.

Yet, there is evidence that older people are routinely denied work. In 2016, Age Discrimination Commissioner Susan Ryan said there was an urgent need to “tackle the discrimination that forces people out of work years before they want to leave”.


Read more: We’ve had 20 aged care reviews in 20 years – will the royal commission be any different?


While older people should be supported to work longer if they wish, over half of Australians between the ages of 65 and 80 report a moderate or severe disability, resulting in greater dependency. A 2017 study of late-life dependency published in The Lancet found that, on average, older people will require 24-hour care for 1.3 to 1.9 years of their lives.

However, it is important that older people are not considered redundant in their societal role when dependency increases.

Aged care workers are also undervalued

Residential aged care facilities fulfil an essential role in our society. Yet, our recent ethnographic study in two residential aged care facilities in Victoria shows how this role has been compromised by an under-skilled, under-valued and overworked aged care workforce.

Older people were exposed to a revolving door of anonymous workers, significantly reducing opportunities for teamwork and fostering relationships between staff and residents. In one of the not-for-profit facilities, a single registered nurse was responsible for the care of 73 residents. This contributed to the delegation of an increasing range of tasks to unregistered personal care assistants with minimal training and delays in recognising signs of health deterioration among residents.


Read more: How our residential aged-care system doesn’t care about older people’s emotional needs


A reliance on general practitioners also increased the likelihood of hospital transfer. And hospital transfers can sometimes prove harmful, with previous studies showing that the noisy, fast-paced environment, bright lights and anonymous faces can have a negative impact on residents, particularly those with dementia.

Within the healthcare sector, aged care has the lowest status of all specialty areas amongst nurses and doctors. Recruiting appropriately qualified and skilled people to work in aged care is thus a constant challenge. Australia is expected to increasingly rely on imported labour to staff its aged care sector in the near future.

Ways to fix the system

Encouraging more healthcare professionals to enter the aged care sector will require a multi-pronged approach, starting with finding ways to engender more professional respect for those working in the field.

Greater emphasis also needs to be placed on improving the gerontological expertise of aged care workers. This can be strengthened by prioritising aged care in medical school education and recognising “nursing home” care as a specialist medical area. It is also imperative that personal care assistants receive greater recognition of the roles and duties they perform.


Read more: Australia’s residential aged care facilities are getting bigger and less home-like


Registration of personal care assistants as third-tier health care professionals is well overdue to ensure better oversight of their training and scope of their practice.

We also need to recognise the importance of human connection in residential aged care facilities. This requires strategies to build better relationships between residents and staff, and developing a formula for more accurate staffing allocations that reflect the real time commitments involved in aged care.

Who bears the ultimate responsibility?

It’s not enough to be shocked by the aged care scandals uncovered by the media and the decision to appoint a royal commission to investigate. We must also make older people, their contributions and end-of-life needs more visible. Increased funding and oversight will only come when we collectively say it’s important.

It is incumbent on us to ensure that residential aged care facilities do not operate as holding bays for the silenced, or wastelands for the discarded, where the occupants are expected to demand nothing and be as little cost to society as possible.

We have an opportunity to reconstruct the delivery of residential aged care. Let’s begin with the end in mind: a society that not only values older people, but values the resources required to provide the care they need and deserve.

– Aged care failures show how little we value older people – and those who care for them
– http://theconversation.com/aged-care-failures-show-how-little-we-value-older-people-and-those-who-care-for-them-103356]]>

Peter Manning: Despite her good intentions, Michelle Guthrie was never the right fit for the ABC

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Sacked as ABC head … Michelle Guthrie, “wrong choice from the start”. Image: PMC

ANALYSIS: By Peter Manning

Michelle Guthrie has been badly treated – not by being sacked, but by being hired in the first place. As a former head of ABC TV News and Current Affairs, I met Guthrie several times at functions in the ABC, and once at a social dinner party.

We discussed the state of ABC News and other editorial matters. She was well aware she was on a steep learning curve.

Dubbed early in the gossip mill as Rupert Murdoch’s and Malcolm Turnbull’s candidate for the job, I found her intentions good and her background at Google a major plus for leading the ABC in a digital era.

READ MORE: Michelle Guthrie’s stint at ABC helm had a key weakness: she failed to back the journalists

If there were worries, they were two: her lack of political smarts in the complicated and potentially volcanic relationship with the federal government; and her lack of experience in journalism, radio or television production, and the myriad other forms of content creation that ABC employees specialise in.

Her first federal Budget saw a $20 million a year “Enhanced Newsgathering Programme” from the previous year cut by a third to $13.5m. I wrote in The Conversation in May 2016:

-Partners-

If she was Malcolm Turnbull’s preferred candidate…it hasn’t helped her in the Budget…Her failure to hold the line on ABC funding will not go down well.

Job cuts followed.

It is one of the top KPI’s for a managing director of the ABC: hold and build the budget.

‘Give her a go’
I think it’s true to say that most ABC staff hoped this was a minor blip and would be corrected in coming years. There was a determination to embrace the old Aussie “give her a go” mindset, and staff were willing to listen to what Guthrie proposed as her signature policies.

But what they heard in a series of staff meetings was nothing new: that the new digital era required changes in demographics, skills and programming; that the organisation needed to be downsized; that new executive reporting lines would be created and simplified; and that the ABC had to ignore its very young and very old rusted-on viewers and concentrate on the 15-30 and 30-50 year-olds, who had left it in droves.

They had heard all this from the previous managing director, Mark Scott, for many years. In fact, the drive to enter the digital world had begun under the leadership of Brian Johns in the early 1990s. He appointed me to head up a multimedia unit in 1994. The task: put the ABC on the internet.

Quickly, the ABC’s new home site – www.abc.net.au – became the top media site in Australia and remains one of the top sites today. But it was Scott who made digitisation his defining contribution.

For all the talk of “content”, it became clear that comparisons between Guthrie and Scott inside the ABC found her wanting. Scott, the former editorial director of Fairfax’s newspaper and magazine division, might have lacked radio and television skills, but he knew a good story when he heard one. He made a good fist of claiming the title of editor-in-chief.

Guthrie, a lawyer by trade, spoke about content and platforms, but was all at sea about how to bring these two concepts together. It was a major hole in her armoury. (Even in News Limited, many admire Rupert Murdoch’s intimate knowledge of the trade of journalism. It runs in the family. It used to be the same with the Packer empire at Channel Nine until Jamie Packer fell in love with casinos and gambling as sources of wealth. The Fairfax barons also enjoyed newspaper production.)

Very soon Guthrie lost the staff she was leading. In a time of constant change, morale fell and the honeymoon ended. The rolling series of federal Budget cuts under the Abbott and then Turnbull governments ensured series after series of expensive payouts to highly-skilled programme-makers who were supposedly there to produce the “content” for the new platforms Guthrie envisaged.

Plea for identities
Many meetings were called to save various sections of the ABC and keep their identities. I attended one, a group of former general managers of ABC Radio National appealing to chairman Justin Milne and Guthrie to not incorporate the station and its staff into various “content streams”, thereby ensuring the end of what was called (the old) “appointment radio”.

The meeting was run by Milne, politely listening to each person and then assuring them it would all be alright. Guthrie was left to comment at the end:

Changes will need to go through me. Trust me, I’m a fan of RN.

The changes proceeded apace.

The casualisation of the new working arrangements has now left many staff not just demoralised but angry. Working crews have left on big packages only to return as freelancers on insecure tenure.

The anger has manifested itself in the “Proud to be Public” campaign by the formerly dominant union at the ABC, the Community and Public Sector Union. This group is more militant than the old Friends of the ABC lobby group, which is full of Liberal voters who care passionately about cuts to the ABC.

And finally, the anger of staff is shown in another new group, Alumni Ltd. – former ABC staff willing to join the struggle to save the ABC from Liberals who want to destroy it.

Wrong timing
In my view, Guthrie came at the wrong moment to be the “change agent” for the ABC. Mark Scott had already been that figure, and had all the necessary qualities to connect with staff and carry them through the digital revolution.

Guthrie’s performances in Canberra (especially before Senate Estimates) were too amateur and insecure. Her own credibility as a content-maker was not up to scratch in a highly critical creative environment like the ABC.

Finally, her seeming inability to bring her senior managers and staff with her proved crucial – especially in an environment where a hostile government half-captured by the ideological right, not to mention News Limited, was snapping at her heels on a constant basis.

The choice of Guthrie was wrong from the start. It did no service to her, nor to the ABC. The then board did her no service in throwing her in the deep end of the ABC at a time of great change.

Dr Peter Manning is adjunct professor of journalism, University of Technology Sydney. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons licence.

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Despite her good intentions, Michelle Guthrie was never the right fit for the ABC

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Manning, Adjunct Professor of Journalism, University of Technology Sydney

Michelle Guthrie has been badly treated – not by being sacked, but by being hired in the first place. As a former Head of ABC TV News and Current Affairs, I met Guthrie several times at functions in the ABC, and once at a social dinner party. We discussed the state of ABC News and other editorial matters. She was well aware she was on a steep learning curve.

Dubbed early in the gossip mill as Rupert Murdoch’s and Malcolm Turnbull’s candidate for the job, I found her intentions good and her background at Google a major plus for leading the ABC in a digital era.


Read more: Michelle Guthrie’s stint at ABC helm had a key weakness: she failed to back the journalists


If there were worries, they were two: her lack of political smarts in the complicated and potentially volcanic relationship with the federal government; and her lack of experience in journalism, radio or television production, and the myriad other forms of content creation that ABC employees specialise in.

Her first federal Budget saw a $20 million a year “Enhanced Newsgathering Program” from the previous year cut by a third to $13.5m. I wrote in The Conversation in May 2016:

If she was Malcolm Turnbull’s preferred candidate…it hasn’t helped her in the Budget…Her failure to hold the line on ABC funding will not go down well.

Job cuts followed.

It is one of the top KPI’s for a managing director of the ABC: hold and build the budget.

I think it’s true to say that most ABC staff hoped this was a minor blip and would be corrected in coming years. There was a determination to embrace the old Aussie “give her a go” mindset, and staff were willing to listen to what Guthrie proposed as her signature policies.

But what they heard in a series of staff meetings was nothing new: that the new digital era required changes in demographics, skills and programming; that the organisation need to be downsized; that new executive reporting lines would be created and simplified; and that the ABC had to ignore its very young and very old rusted-on viewers and concentrate on the 15-30 and 30-50 year-olds, who had left it in droves.

They had heard all this from the previous managing director, Mark Scott, for many years. In fact, the drive to enter the digital world had begun under the leadership of Brian Johns in the early 1990s. He appointed me to head up a multimedia unit in 1994. The task: put the ABC on the internet. Quickly, the ABC’s new home site – www.abc.net.au – became the top media site in Australia and remains one of the top sites today. But it was Scott who made digitisation his defining contribution.


Read more: Media Files: ABC boss Michelle Guthrie sacked, but the board won’t say why


For all the talk of “content”, it became clear that comparisons between Guthrie and Scott inside the ABC found her wanting. Scott, the former editorial director of Fairfax’s newspaper and magazine division, might have lacked radio and television skills, but he knew a good story when he heard one. He made a good fist of claiming the title of editor-in-chief.

Guthrie, a lawyer by trade, spoke about content and platforms, but was all at sea about how to bring these two concepts together. It was a major hole in her armoury. (Even in News Limited, many admire Rupert Murdoch’s intimate knowledge of the trade of journalism. It runs in the family. It used to be the same with the Packer empire at Channel Nine until Jamie Packer fell in love with casinos and gambling as sources of wealth. The Fairfax barons also enjoyed newspaper production.)

Very soon Guthrie lost the staff she was leading. In a time of constant change, morale fell and the honeymoon ended. The rolling series of federal Budget cuts under the Abbott and then Turnbull governments ensured series after series of expensive payouts to highly-skilled program-makers who were supposedly there to produce the “content” for the new platforms Guthrie envisaged.

Many meetings were called to save various sections of the ABC and keep their identities. I attended one, a group of former general managers of ABC Radio National appealing to chairman Justin Milne and Guthrie to not incorporate the station and its staff into various “content streams”, thereby ensuring the end of what was called (the old) “appointment radio”.

The meeting was run by Milne, politely listening to each person and then assuring them it would all be alright. Guthrie was left to comment at the end:

Changes will need to go through me. Trust me, I’m a fan of RN.

The changes proceeded apace.

The casualisation of the new working arrangements has now left many staff not just demoralised but angry. Working crews have left on big packages only to return as freelancers on insecure tenure.

The anger has manifested itself in the “Proud to be Public” campaign by the formerly dominant union at the ABC, the Community and Public Sector Union. This group is more militant than the old Friends of the ABC lobby group, which is full of Liberal voters who care passionately about cuts to the ABC. And finally, the anger of staff is shown in another new group, Alumni Ltd. – former ABC staff willing to join the struggle to save the ABC from Liberals who want to destroy it.

In my view, Guthrie came at the wrong moment to be the “change agent” for the ABC. Mark Scott had already been that figure, and had all the necessary qualities to connect with staff and carry them through the digital revolution.

Guthrie’s performances in Canberra (especially before Senate Estimates) were too amateur and insecure. Her own credibility as a content-maker was not up to scratch in a highly critical creative environment like the ABC. Finally, her seeming inability to bring her senior managers and staff with her proved crucial – especially in an environment where a hostile government half-captured by the ideological right, not to mention News Limited, was snapping at her heels on a constant basis.

The choice of Guthrie was wrong from the start. It did no service to her, nor to the ABC. The then Board did her no service in throwing her in the deep end of the ABC at a time of great change.

– Despite her good intentions, Michelle Guthrie was never the right fit for the ABC
– http://theconversation.com/despite-her-good-intentions-michelle-guthrie-was-never-the-right-fit-for-the-abc-103755]]>

Automated vehicles may encourage a new breed of distracted drivers

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mitchell Cunningham, PhD Candidate + Casual Academic (USyd); Senior Behavioural Scientist (ARRB Group), University of Sydney

Few people pay close attention to the traffic situation unfolding around them when they’re travelling as a passenger in a car, even if they’re in the front seat. And that could make partially automated vehicles, which are operating on our roads right now, problematic.

Also known as Level 2 automated vehicles, partially automated vehicles are capable of controlling steering, acceleration and deceleration. The Tesla AutoPilot system is a good example. (Cadillac, Volvo, Audi and Nissan also offer partial automation).


Read more: What are these ‘levels’ of autonomous vehicles?


These kinds of automated vehicles require a human driver to remain on standby when the vehicle is in autonomous mode. That means paying close attention to the driving environment, and taking back control of the vehicle if required.

This may sound straightforward, but it’s not.

Passive fatigue and distraction

There are two main reasons why people find it difficult to pay close attention to the driving environment, especially for extended periods of time, when a vehicle is driving itself.

Firstly, people are prone to passive fatigue. Driving conditions that don’t require frequent use of vehicle controls, but do require constant vigilance for hazards, may paradoxically reduce driver alertness – even after only 10 minutes on the road. Such conditions may even put drivers to sleep.

Secondly, prolonged periods of automated driving may become outright boring for some drivers left on standby. Bored drivers tend to engage spontaneously in distracting activities that stimulate them, such as using a phone, reading a magazine or watching a movie. This may be especially true if the driver feels a high level of trust in the automation.

These by-products of automation have been demonstrated in both simulated and real-world driving studies.

Safety concerns

Drivers who are inattentive to the driving environment when a partially automated vehicle is operating in autonomous mode may pose a significant safety risk to themselves and others. They may be less likely to anticipate critical events that spark a takeover request, and be ill-prepared to safely take back control if required.

The tragic fatality in 2016 of a driver of one of Tesla’s partially automated vehicles bears on this issue. The US National Transportation Safety Board’s accident report notes that:

the probable cause of the Williston, Florida, crash was the truck driver’s failure to yield the right of way to the car, combined with the car driver’s inattention due to overreliance on vehicle automation, which resulted in the car driver’s lack of reaction to the presence of the truck.

Helping people remain vigilant

Autonomous vehicle manufacturers seem to be aware of this problem. To compensate, they require drivers to keep a hand on the wheel when the vehicle is driving itself, or to periodically touch the steering wheel to signal that they remain vigilant.

But it’s unclear whether this is an effective strategy to keep drivers attentive.

Some drivers have devised some creative ways of circumventing the requirement to touch the steering wheel. For example, by placing a bottle of water on the steering wheel in lieu of their hand.

Even if a driver touches the wheel when requested, their eyes may be focused elsewhere, such as on a mobile phone display. And if their eyes are focused on the roadway at times when they touch the steering wheel, their minds may not be. There is evidence periods of prolonged automation can cause drivers’ minds to wander. Indeed, drivers may fail to attend to things on the roadway, even if they are physically looking at them.


Read more: Preliminary report on Uber’s driverless car fatality shows the need for tougher regulatory controls


This calls into question whether partially automated vehicles can keep drivers attentive to the driving task during periods of autonomous driving. Researchers are actively trying to work out ways of improving this.

A recent paper proposes a set of design principles for the human-machine interface – the technology built into the vehicle that allows it to communicate messages to the driver, and vice versa.

But, in our view, until vehicles become automated to the point there is no longer a requirement for drivers to pay attention to the driving environment, driver inattention is likely to remain a road safety problem.

What about the vehicle itself?

While humans may become inattentive to driving due to mechanisms such as distraction or misprioritised attention, could vehicles operating autonomously become inattentive through similar mechanisms? For example, could they focus their attention, or computational resources, on one aspect of driving to the exclusion of another that is more time critical to safety?


Read more: Why driverless vehicles should not be given unchecked access to our cities


The safe operation of these vehicles will be determined largely by the software algorithms that drive them. Just like a human driver, a vehicle driven by these algorithms will need to prioritise its attention on activities critical for safe driving.

But how do we design algorithms that define what a vehicle should pay attention to from moment-to-moment when we don’t yet fully understand what human drivers should pay attention to at any moment in time? Poorly designed automation could make vehicles as vulnerable to inattention as humans.

Driver inattention is currently a problem in partially automated vehicles. In the future, this may morph into “vehicle inattention” unless we can design vehicles capable of reliably attending to all activities critical for safe driving. Until then, inattention as a road safety problem may not be going anywhere.


The authors would like to thank Dr Bill Horrey, Dr Steve Most and Associate Professor Vinayak Dixit for reviewing an earlier version of this article.

– Automated vehicles may encourage a new breed of distracted drivers
– http://theconversation.com/automated-vehicles-may-encourage-a-new-breed-of-distracted-drivers-101178]]>

The NT is putting a minimum floor price on alcohol, because evidence shows this works to reduce harm

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Boffa, Adjunct Associate Professor, Curtin University

From October 1, 2018, one standard drink in the Northern Territory will cost a minimum of A$1.30. This is known as floor price, which is used to calculate the minimum cost at which a product can be sold, depending on how many standard drinks the product contains.

People in the Northern Territory consume alcohol at much higher levels and have the highest rate of risky alcohol consumption in Australia. In 2014, around 44% of people in the NT were drinking alcohol at a level that put them at risk of injury or other harms at least once in the past month. This was compared to 26% of people nationally.

The implementation of the minimum floor price is the result of legislation, recently passed to minimise alcohol-related harms in the NT. From October, the NT will become one of the first places in the world to introduce a minimum price for alcohol.


Read more: Three charts on: Australia’s changing drug and alcohol habits


A history of alcohol restrictions

The NT government introducted trial restrictions on the availability of alcohol in Alice Springs in 2002. This came after many years of campaigning for restrictions on alcohol sales by Aboriginal community organisations and the People’s Alcohol Action Coalition (an Alice Springs-based alcohol reform group).

The trial restrictions limited the hours during which take-away alcohol could be sold on weekdays to 2-9pm. They also attempted to address the sale of cheap 4L or 5L casks of wine by prohibiting the sale of take-away alcohol in containers larger than 2L. This super cheap alcohol was most implicated in the town’s social and health problems.

The trial had some positive effects but was substantially undermined by drinkers switching from cask-wine to other cheap forms of alcohol – in particular fortified wine sold in flagons and casks.


Read more: How mandatory treatment for public drunkenness is failing Aboriginal people


This led to renewed advocacy for more effective approaches to alcohol–related harm. In 2006, the NT government implemented the Alice Springs Liquor Supply Plan (LSP). This continued the earlier restrictions on the hours of sale for take-away alcohol. But it also extended the ban on the sale of cheap alcohol to include both wine in containers larger than two litres and fortified wine in containers larger than one litre.

What the liquor supply plan achieved

A 2011 government commissioned study found removing the two cheapest forms of alcohol (cask wine and fortified wine in casks and large bottles) from the market increased the price of alcohol in Central Australia. Before the introduction of the liquor supply plan, the average wholesale price per standard drink was around A$0.80. Under the plan, this increased to about A$1.10 per standard drink.

This increase was primarily achieved by the bans on cheap alcohol, effectively doubling the minimum unit price from about A$0.25 per standard drink to A$0.50 per standard drink. As the figure below shows, the introduction of the liquor supply plan in Alice Springs led to a significant decrease in alcohol consumption (estimated by using wholesale sales data) – from around 24 standard drinks per week for every person aged 15 years and over to around 20 standard drinks per week.



As expected, the ban on cheap cask and fortified wine led some drinkers to turn to other types of alcohol. But while there was a 70% increase in the consumption of more expensive full-strength beer, the decline in the consumption of cheap alcohol more than offset this. This led to the overall 20% decline in consumption.

The reductions in alcohol consumption were accompanied by a significant decrease in social harms and adverse health impacts. Treatments for alcohol-related harms at Alice Springs Hospital, which had been rising steeply, levelled off. Though they continued to rise, they did so at a much reduced rate.

This included reductions in those who were admitted to hospital because of assaults. In particular, the liquor supply plan led to around 120 fewer than projected Aboriginal women being hospitalised per year for assault. A similar pattern was seen for emergency department presentations, with a significant decrease in people presenting as a result of assault.

The LSP also saw significant reductions in the proportion of alcohol-related anti-social behaviour incidents recorded in Alice Springs.


Read more: Minimum price on alcohol in the NT will likely reduce harm


A minimum floor price works

It’s clear restrictions on the sale of cheap alcohol are effective in reducing alcohol-related harm. And while the causes of family and community violence are complex, bans on cheap alcohol are especially effective in reducing the number of Aboriginal women subjected to assault.

Some have argued Aboriginal drinking is not affected by price as these drinkers will simply increase their expenditure on alcohol to maintain their consumption. But the liquor supply plan provides powerful evidence this assumption is incorrect. The reduction in assaults of Aboriginal women strongly suggests the increases in price were accompanied by a reduction in consumption.

The implementation of the minimum floor price shows the importance of local advocacy by Aboriginal organisations and community groups in moving policy and practice in alcohol control forward.

This article was co-authored by Donna Ah Chee, CEO of the Central Australian Aboriginal Congress and Mr Edward Tilton, Health Policy Consultant at the Central Australian Aboriginal Congress.

– The NT is putting a minimum floor price on alcohol, because evidence shows this works to reduce harm
– http://theconversation.com/the-nt-is-putting-a-minimum-floor-price-on-alcohol-because-evidence-shows-this-works-to-reduce-harm-101827]]>

When falling home ownership and ageing baby boomers collide

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachel Ong ViforJ, Professor of Economics, School of Economics, Finance and Property, Curtin University

Until now, the majority of older people in Australia have achieved the goal of owning their own home outright. Hence, policymakers have typically shown little concern about the size and budget costs of rental housing assistance programs for seniors. However, two major societal shifts are set to propel such programs into the spotlight as a prominent government subsidy for older Australians.

The first trend is population ageing. We anticipate that baby boomers will place growing pressure on housing assistance programs as they age.

This is simply because of their larger numbers compared to earlier generations. Applying ABS population projections to data from the 2011 Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, we project the population of Australians aged 55 years and over will increase from 5.1 million to 7.9 million between 2011 and 2031 – a 55% increase.

A second shift – falling rates of home ownership – could further increase the demands on the housing system. The HILDA Survey reveals rates of home ownership have fallen from 72% in 2001 to 66% in 2016.

This decline is in part due to younger Australians finding it more difficult to become owner-occupiers. It is also due to growing numbers of Australians dropping out of home ownership.

Estimates from the ABS Surveys of Income and Housing show that from 1982 to 2013 the home ownership rate fell 7.3 percentage points among the 45-54 age group. It fell by 5.1 percentage points for the 55-64 age group.

These trends are likely to continue.

A growing divide among older Australians

To analyse the implications of these shifts, we forecast the changing profile of Australians aged 55 and over by housing tenure. We apply demographic projections to the 2011 HILDA Survey and describe tenure profiles based on hypothetical declines of 5 and 15 percentage points in home ownership rates by 2031, as well as a stagnant stock of public housing.

Our findings point to a growing divide among older Australians. For older Australians, home ownership will increasingly become the preserve of higher-income married couples (see table 1). Older people on lower incomes – especially women and those affected by marital breakdown or bereavement – will rent.

The divide is especially stark if the home ownership rate falls by 15 percentage points. In this scenario, 27.4% of people aged 55 and over will be private renters by 2031.

Budget impacts of housing assistance

Older Australians’ demand for housing assistance could spike as a result of population ageing and falling home ownership rates.

Even demographic change on its own would lift real government spending on housing assistance for Australians aged 55 and over by 64% by 2031 (see table 2).

If home ownership rates also decline by 5 percentage points, then real government spending is projected to blow out to three times its 2011 level.

A steep fall in the home ownership rate of 15 percentage points would send real government spending on housing assistance soaring to around six times the 2011 level. That would increase real spending on housing assistance for older Australians from a tiny 0.043% of real GDP in 2011 to 0.16% of forecast real GDP in 2031.

The implications of demographic change coupled with falling home ownership rates are obvious for the housing sector:

  • the private rental tenure is set to expand
  • demand for housing assistance will grow
  • spending on housing assistance programs will increase the strain on government budgets.

Challenges beyond housing policy

There are also important ramifications for retirement incomes policy. The age pension system assumes most Australians will retire as outright home owners with no mortgage payments to meet. They can therefore get by on low age pensions. But growing numbers of older renters struggling to meet rental payments will call into question the adequacy of our age pension benefits.

There is an alternative scenario. By 2031, the superannuation system will have matured. Growing numbers of older renters – especially those with steady employment records – could accumulate big enough balances in defined contribution schemes to become home buyers in later life.

Dipping into superannuation savings to finance a home purchase is attractive on various fronts:

  1. it offers the prospect of secure and affordable housing in old age
  2. it helps with access to the age pension as owner-occupied housing assets are exempt from the age pension assets test and are not deemed to generate an income return under the income test
  3. under aged care assets test rules, the equity stored in what was an aged care client’s family home is either exempt from the assets test (if a spouse or dependent children is still living in the home), or subject to a cap ($165,271.20 as at March 20 2018), and is not assessed for age care deeming purposes.

On the other hand, superannuation balances are an assessable asset under age pension and aged care assets test provisions, as well as for age pension and aged care deeming purposes.

Should growing numbers of Australians approach retirement as renters these anomalies offer them potentially powerful motives to substitute assets away from superannuation and into owner-occupied housing in later life. But, in doing so, they could undermine a key objective of Australia’s superannuation guarantee – that of promoting financial independence and reducing reliance on public pensions in old age.

– When falling home ownership and ageing baby boomers collide
– http://theconversation.com/when-falling-home-ownership-and-ageing-baby-boomers-collide-102846]]>

Privatising WestConnex is the biggest waste of public funds for corporate gain in Australian history

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher Standen, Transport Analyst, University of Sydney

The NSW government has confirmed it will sell 51% of WestConnex — the nation’s biggest road infrastructure project — to a consortium led by Transurban, the nation’s biggest toll road corporation.

NSW treasurer Dominic Perrottet described the A$9.3 billion sale to one of his party’s more generous donors as a “very strong result”.

I would describe it differently: the biggest misuse of public funds for corporate gain in Australia’s history.

Let’s examine how much public funding has been or will be sunk into WestConnex, a 33km toll road linking western Sydney with southwestern Sydney via the inner west.

Privatising Westconnex will return the NSW government 30 cents for every dollar of public money spent. WestConnex Business Case Executive Summary

To date, the NSW and federal governments have provided grants of about $6 billion. Much of this was raised through selling revenue-generating public assets, including NSW’s electricity network.

Hiding privatisation by stealth

As well, the NSW government is bundling three publicly owned motorways into the sale: the M4 (between Parramatta and Homebush), the M5 East and the M5 Southwest (from 2026). Together, Credit Suisse values these public assets at A$9.2 billion. The government is privatising them by stealth. Leaked NSW cabinet documents suggest the Sydney Harbour Bridge will be next.

Then there is the A$1.5 billion bill for property acquisitions and the millions spent on planning, advertising, consultants, lawyers and bankers.

The government is funding extra road works to help prop up WestConnex toll revenue. It will increase the capacity of road corridors feeding into the interchanges. But it will reduce the number of traffic lanes on roads competing with WestConnex, such as Parramatta Road.


Read more: Modelling for major road projects is at odds with driver behaviour


It will also pick up the bill for building a A$2.6 billion airport connection and the complex underground interchange at Rozelle. It will even pay compensation if the latter is not completed on schedule.

To further bolster toll revenue, NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian introduced a vehicle registration cashback scheme for toll-road users.

Her government has also committed to continuing the M5 Southwest toll cashback scheme. The cost of these incentives to the public purse is likely to exceed A$2 billion every ten years.

In total, I estimate the NSW government is pumping more than A$23 billion worth of cash, public assets, enabling works and incentives into WestConnex — though efforts to shield the scheme from public scrutiny mean the figure could be much higher.

Finally, as part of the deal with Transurban, the government has agreed to plough A$5.3 billion of the sale proceeds back into WestConnex. It’s recouping just A$4 billion by selling majority ownership.

This translates to a financial return of 34 cents for every dollar spent.

Government expenses and receipts.

Of course, governments don’t always spend our money with the intention of making a profit. Usually there are broader social benefits that justify the expenditure. However, past experience shows inner-city motorways do more harm than good — which is why many cities around the world are demolishing them.

Given its proximity to residential areas, WestConnex will have serious impacts on Sydney’s population. Construction is already destroying communities, harming people’s health and disrupting sleep and travel — with years more to come.

Motorists who cannot afford the new tolls on the M4 ($2,300 a year) and M5 East ($3,100 a year) will have to switch to congested suburban roads. This will mean longer journey times — especially with the removal of traffic lanes on Parramatta Road.

New tolls on existing motorways.

Those who do opt to pay the new tolls may enjoy faster journeys for a few years — until the motorways fill up again.

Costs outweigh the benefits

But this benefit will be largely cancelled out by the tolls they have to pay — with low-income households in western Sydney bearing much of the pain. As such, the ultimate beneficiary will be a corporation that pays no company tax and employs very few people.

Traffic and congestion on roads around the interchanges will increase significantly. Moreover, with tolls for trucks three times those for cars, we can expect to see them switching to suburban and residential streets — especially between peak hours and at night.

The extra traffic created by WestConnex will lead to more road trauma, traffic noise and air pollution across the Sydney metropolitan area. With unfiltered smokestacks being built next to homes and schools, more people may be at risk of heart disease, lung disease and cancer in years to come.


Read more: Big road projects don’t really save time or boost productivity


On any measure, the WestConnex sale is not in the public interest. The billions of dollars ploughed into the scheme would have been better spent on worthwhile infrastructure or services that improve people’s lives.

Is the WestConnex acquisition a good deal for Transurban? A$9.3 billion may sound like a high price, given the past financial collapses of other Australian toll roads.

However, with the Berejiklian government agreeing to fund most of the remaining construction, giving away the M4 and M5, guaranteeing annual toll increases of at least 4%, and bending over backwards to force motorists under the toll gantries, it can only be described as a “very strong result” for the consortium, though not for taxpayers.

– Privatising WestConnex is the biggest waste of public funds for corporate gain in Australian history
– http://theconversation.com/privatising-westconnex-is-the-biggest-waste-of-public-funds-for-corporate-gain-in-australian-history-102790]]>

Art and science come together to examine the power and perversions of perfection

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julie Shiels, Lecturer – School of Art, RMIT University

Review: Perfection, Science Gallery Melbourne.


It would be easy to assume that art and science occupy separate worlds. Art invites us to encounter “things as they are perceived and not as they are known” and relies on subjective experience to confirm value. Science strives to establish knowledge as fact through testing and peer review. Yet sitting at the core of both disciplines is the desire to employ curiosity, creativity, innovation and discovery to examine the world we live in. These intellectual frameworks create bridges between the two disciplines.

The intersection between art and science is the focus of Perfection, the latest pop-up show for the Science Gallery Melbourne. Part exhibition, part experiment it asks: “What does it mean to be perfect?”

Curated by a panel that includes a particle physicist, a computer scientist, a plastic surgeon and a musicologist, Perfection offers a set of reflections, calculations and speculations that engage with ideas about the perfect body, mathematical precision, quantum physics and a post-human world. We are invited to consider the current state of things and to contemplate what might constitute an ideal future.


Read more: Spilling blood in art, a tale of tampons, Trump and taboos


XORXOR, Perfect O, installation view. Image courtesy of the artists

The slippages between art and science, and experiment and exhibition, are an active component of Perfection. Questions that straddle technology and art history are explored by XORXOR’s question: “Is it possible to draw a perfect circle?”

Marcus Volz, Lorenz Attractor 201, Digital animation. Image courtesy the artist

Marcus Volz’s digital animations, Lorenz Attractor and Natalina Cafra, employ complex 3D sculptural forms to visualise mathematical equations relating to atmospheric weather patterns and fractal diversity in molluscs. Reminiscent of late modernism and the idea of a perfect closed self-referencing system, these drawings ask whether art can be maths and maths can be art.

Andy Gracie, Fish, Plant, Rack v.2 2004. Image courtesy of the artist

The lab-like conditions of Andy Gracie’s Fish, Plant, Rack v.2 speculate on a future post-human condition where the world goes on without us. In this experiment three systems interact: a blind fish emitting electrical impulses, a robot powered by the fish, and plants living in a hydroponic system. Other works that deal with non-human concerns explore ideas about a “perfect sound” and question whether light has consciousness.

The most prominent experiments in the exhibition, though, relate to the human body, identity and the self.

Throughout history, the body has been an abiding interest for artists — from the earliest forms of bodily adornment through Da Vinci’s concern with anatomy, to contemporary explorations of race, gender and sexuality. Technology takes things to a new level, enabling us to hack, modify and transform our bodies, and to use social media as a platform to manage our identity and present it to the world. As a potential extension of the body, the digital realm provides fertile ground for creative critique and exploration.

Ant Hamlyn, The Boost Project, 2015. Nicole Cleary

Ant Hamlyn’s The Boost Project and Tyler Payne’s Womanhours both address the pressures of social media.

Hamlyn’s six-metre-tall inflatable is a proxy for the body and the ego. Suspended from the ceiling, this giant orb gives form to the flux and fragility of an online presence. Each time it is liked via its hashtag, The Boost Project gets a 30-second burst of air. On a good day it has a substantial presence at the entrance of the gallery, but when it is ignored the orb slowly deflates, its firmness diminishes, and the suspended form takes on a droopy and dejected demeanour.

Payne’s Womanhours demonstrates the oppression of Instagram. In a series of videos, the artist employs her own body to reveal the level of self-correction needed to achieve the perfect self-portrait. She appears to endure an extreme physical and psychological makeover through female cosmetic rituals such as waxing, tanning, bleaching, plucking and shaving. The perfected self is captured for a fleeting moment in the virtual realm and the ritual is repeated all over again.

Orlan, Omniprésence, 1993. Image courtesy of the artist

Self-correction is also the subject of ORLAN’s performance practice and her body is the canvas for experimentation. No need to repeat these rituals; the interventions are permanent. For decades, ORLAN has undergone plastic surgery in order to shape her face to reflect a version of beauty expressed in the Renaissance paintings. Her new brow resembles the Mona Lisa and her chin belongs to Botticelli’s Venus.

Adam Peacock, Genetics Gym, 2017, video still. Nicole Cleary

In Genetics Gym, Adam Peacock speculates on how genetic technologies could allow us to design our bodies and cognitive dispositions, ramping up the prospects of self-improvement beyond internal and external modification.

Similarly, in Demiurge, Jaden Hastings has accessed her entire gene sequence and used artificial intelligence to analyse potential risks and provide information about what needs to be fixed to achieve a perfect state. In doing so, the artist inserts the machine into the process of human evolution.

Most artists in this exhibition speculate on self-improvement with respect to health, function and beauty, but we might also be driven to modify ourselves through fear. What if the desire to survive a cataclysmic event was the catalyst for reshaping the human form?

Patricia Piccini’s Graham has the perfect body to walk away unscathed from a car crash. Created in collaboration with trauma surgeon Christian Kenfield and the Monash University Accident Research Centre, Graham’s honed and sculpted anatomy will withstand the impact of a 30kph collision. Paradoxically, the unintended consequences of Graham’s modified feet and ankles would appear to make walking very difficult.

Few of us would choose to look like Graham, but he is a metaphor for the lengths we will go to be safe. How far might we go to protect ourselves or our children from threats like terrorism or global warming?

The prospect of hacking, modifying and transforming our bodies presents an unexpected conundrum. Scientific and technological advances inevitably open up an unfettered realm of personal choice when innovations hit the marketplace. But in The Paradox of Choice, economist Barry Schwartz shows that having too many options generates anxiety. It’s hard enough to choose a toothbrush today, let alone make an informed decision about the potential range of future body modifications.

Perfection raises questions about what constitutes a utopian or dystopian future, ethical or unethical practices, a perfect or an imperfect human. The exhibition provides no easy answers but invites us to shift our perception and engage with the world as it is now, and as it might one day become. Be careful what you wish for.


Perfection is showing at Science Gallery Melbourne until November 11 2018.

– Art and science come together to examine the power and perversions of perfection
– http://theconversation.com/art-and-science-come-together-to-examine-the-power-and-perversions-of-perfection-103753]]>

Media Files: ABC boss Michelle Guthrie sacked, but the board won’t say why

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Dodd, Director of the Centre for Advancing Journalism, University of Melbourne

The major question following the sacking of ABC managing director Michelle Guthrie is why? Why did the ABC board move so decisively and why now?

Was it just about tension between her and the corporation chair, Justin Milne, or was it about strategic direction for the national broadcaster?

In this special edition of Media Files, Monash University’s Margaret Simons and former ABC staff-elected director Matt Peacock talk to Matthew Ricketson and Andrew Dodd about what it might mean for the ABC – particularly in the lead up to a federal election.


Read more: Constant attacks on the ABC will come back to haunt the Coalition government


Media Files is produced by a team of journalists and academics who have spent decades working in and reporting on the media industry. It’s about how journalists operate, how media policy is changing, and how commercial manoeuvres and digital disruption are affecting the kinds of media and journalism we consume.

Media Files will be out every month, with occasional off-schedule episodes released when we’ve got fresh analysis we can’t wait to share with you. To make sure you don’t miss an episode, find us and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, in Pocket Casts or wherever you find your podcasts. And while you’re there, please rate and review us – it really helps others to find us.

You can find more podcast episodes from The Conversation here.


Producer: Andy Hazel.

Additional audio

Theme music by Susie Wilkins.


Read more: Media Files: What does the Nine Fairfax merger mean for diversity and quality journalism?


– Media Files: ABC boss Michelle Guthrie sacked, but the board won’t say why
– http://theconversation.com/media-files-abc-boss-michelle-guthrie-sacked-but-the-board-wont-say-why-103752]]>

Climate change and security big focus for Pacific Islands Forum in Nauru

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Climate change is a major worry to the Pacific Islands and it was the major talking point at the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) earlier this month. Barbara Dreaver of Television New Zealand, who was detained and questioned in Nauru, talks to Sri Krishnamurthi of Asia-Pacific Report.

Two significant events happened at the 49th Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) earlier this month – climate change and ratification of the Boe agreement (a regional security pact that succeeded the 2000 Biketawa agreement), says Barbara Dreaver, a veteran journalist with 20 years’ experience covering the Pacific.

Dreaver made headlines herself by being detained and questioned for four hours after interviewing an asylum seeker from a detention centre on Nauru.

The centres were declared a forbidden area when Nauru approved journalists’ accreditation for the forum on September 3-6.

APJS NEWSFILE

READ MORE: Climate change, at the frontlines

Initially, Nauru revoked Dreaver’s accreditation but reinstated it, so she could cover the forum proper, and she did not allow it to detract from doing her job.

Climate change is a growing burden for the Pacific and was the key discussion point at the forum.

-Partners-

Central to this is the demand by the Pacific Island countries that the United States return to the Paris climate agreement of 2015.

In short, the Paris Agreement is an ambition to keep the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C – and to limit the increase to 1.5 °C – as called for by the smaller island states at the forum.

Plea to the US
“Pacific leaders have also called on the US to return to the Paris agreement,” says Barbara Dreaver.

The call comes on the back of US President Donald Trump announcing his intention in June 2017 to withdraw. Under the agreement, the earliest possible withdrawal date for the US is November 2020, although moves have been afoot for the US administration to withdraw from the agreement.

Climate change has become such an important problem for Pacific Island nations that it had to take centre stage at the forum.

“Yes, this was the main thrust of the forum. The leaders have formally requested the United Nations appoint a special adviser on climate change and security and they have also called on the UN Security Council to appoint a special rapporteur to produce a regular review of global, regional and national security threats caused by climate change,” Dreaver told Asia Pacific Report.

Most of the controversy at the forum centred around Nauru, which was once a phosphate-mining mecca now virtually stripped dry and reduced to playing an off-shore role as a detention centre for asylum seekers to Australia.

Nauru is set to receive nearly A$26 million from Australia in Official Development Assistance  in 2018-19, which is almost a quarter of its gross domestic product.

“The money Nauru receives from Australia is valuable to this cash-strapped nation. It’s not only in cash terms – buildings have been improved etc. For Nauru, while it’s a headache, it’s also a godsend,” says Dreaver.

Sensitive refugee discussions
Sensitive discussions around the detainees did take place under muted conditions and away from the media, she noted.

“The discussion around the detainees on Nauru took place in the bilaterals and only at a general level.

“There was some sensitivity given it’s a domestic issue for the most part and Nauru had made it clear it did not consider it part of the forum – even if others did.

“It should be noted that the bigger non-government organisations like World Vision or Amnesty, which would have brought up the issue at side events [civil society discussions)] were refused visas to Nauru.”

Incarcerated children on the island, kept in conditions widely considered inhumane, hardly rated a mention at the forum.

“The children on Nauru are staying put – I understand there are now approximately 109 of them,” says Dreaver.

An Australian decision
New Zealand did discuss the potential resettlement of some of the asylum seekers but were told it was an Australian decision.

“Jacinda Ardern (Prime Minister) discussed it with Nauru at the bilateral discussions but at the end of the day, if Australia doesn’t agree with the transferral of refugees to NZ it won’t happen. The decision is not the Nauru governments’ to make,” says Dreaver.

That was not to say New Zealand did not have a contribution to make at the PIF, even though one commentator in New Zealand likened Pacific countries to “leeches”.

“Most of New Zealand’s contribution was behind the scenes. For example, like some of the other member countries it had input on the Biketawa Plus or Boe Declaration,” she said.

“New Zealand’s presence must not be underestimated… the only times a New Zealand Prime Minister has not attended a forum has been when it has been close to an election.

“While fellow leaders have always publicly expressed their understanding, they have also made it clear New Zealand is missed and it doesn’t go down well.

“New Zealand is strong on fisheries in the region and its input in this area is strong,” she says on a food source that is dear to the heart of all Pacific Islanders.

Climate change priority
Again, there was no getting away from climate change and the security of the region, as Dreaver points out.

“Yes, the Boe declaration was ratified (named Boe as this is name of the President of Nauru’s [Baron Waqa] village where it was signed).

“The leaders had to go back to the table in the evening as Australia had some concerns over the language about climate change which other leaders describe as the single greatest threat to the region.

“There is a strong agreement for resources for cash-strapped nations, particularly in the area of cybercrime – it’s expected New Zealand and Australia will provide specialist and technical knowledge to help small island nations combat this,’’ Dreaver says.

Progress was made at the 49th sitting of the Pacific Islands Forum despite it being held in the controversial venue of Nauru.

Sri Krishnamurthi is a journalist and Postgraduate Diploma in Communication Studies student at Auckland University of Technology. He is attached to the University of the South Pacific’s Journalism Programme, filing for USP’s Wansolwara News and the AUT Pacific Media Centre’s Asia Pacific Report.

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Why the increased penalties for strawberry sabotage will do little to prevent the crime

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rick Sarre, Adjunct Professor of Law and Criminal Justice, University of South Australia

The fruit contamination crisis has delivered a devastating blow to the growers of Australia. The crisis is now so big it seems to have reached New Zealand as well.

Producers and consumers have been justifiably outraged that someone, for reasons no one knows or understands, has decided to place sewing needles into packaged strawberries. The question for authorities is how to prevent this.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison was quick off the mark, foreshadowing amendments to legislation to create new offences and to change proof requirements. He also announced plans to increase the penalties for this type of crime: imprisonment for up to 15 years. Morrison said:

That’s how seriously I take this; that’s how seriously our government takes it. That will be an increased penalty for those who engage in this sort of thing.

Two matters arise from these announcements. One requires a legal explanation; the other involves some criminological and political speculation.

The legal issue is the role of the federal government in dealing with criminal laws and setting criminal penalties, matters that are usually the preserve of the states and territories. The power of the federal parliament to legislate is brought about by the fact that goods are bought and sold in trade and commerce, a key plank of the federal parliament’s lawmaking authority.


Read more: Grattan on Friday: Morrison aims to make agility his prime ministerial trademark


To that end, section 380 of the Commonwealth Criminal Code Act makes illegal any activity that involves the contamination of goods, including food, where there is an intention to cause anxiety, harm or loss.

Attorney-General Christian Porter has foreshadowed a change to the mental element for this crime. No longer will it require proof of a specific intention to cause harm. It will be sufficient for prosecutors to prove reckless indifference that harm might be caused.

Also before the federal parliament is the Espionage and Foreign Interference Bill, which contains new “sabotage” offences that make it a crime to cause damage to Australia’s critical infrastructure.

In light of the fruit contamination crisis, the definitions of “sabotage” and “infrastructure” will be amended to include tampering with goods intended for human consumption, where that tampering is deemed prejudicial to national security.

It is now time for some speculation. Leaving to one side the new offences and the alteration to the intention threshold, which may or may not increase the number of future arrests and conviction rates, can we confidently assume we will all be safer as a result of the increased penalties? The answer is no.

We have known for a long time that deterrence theory is highly speculative. There is little hard evidence that punitive approaches have a consistent deterrent effect.

Indeed, how does one ever know what conduct, and how much conduct, has been deterred by a rise in a penalty? And how do we know whether it was that specific legislative change that caused any recorded drop in crime?

Sentencing specifically for deterrent purposes is equally problematic. Magistrates and judges must sentence a myriad of personalities, in circumstances that change from case to case, to achieve a broad range of often inconsistent sentencing goals (not just deterrence), using a limited range of penalties, and guided by case law and legislation that is often contradictory. It is a tough ask to expect that this exercise alone will achieve a specific deterrent outcome.

Indeed, deterrence theory is premised upon a “free will” view of human motivation. That is, the theory assumes all offenders are rational decision-makers who weigh up the pros and cons of their actions. It is a brave assumption.

Moreover, for the deterrent penalty to be effective, a close relationship has to exist between the severity of the sanction and an offender’s perceived risk of being apprehended and convicted. That relationship rarely exists. So it is fanciful to think that a saboteur will think twice about his or her actions on the strength of penalties being increased from 10 to 15 years.


Read more: Strawberry sabotage: what are copycat crimes and who commits them?


It is also unrealistic to suggest that it is in the public interest to sentence to, say, a dozen years behind bars someone who, for reasons unknown, engages in a “copycat” crime and presents to a police station or media outlet with a contaminated package that they themselves have tampered with.

So there must be something more behind the government’s announcement. There is. It is caught up in what we refer to as “desert” theory. This is the idea that any penalty structure should reflect a relationship between the seriousness of a particular crime and the harshness of the punishment. Desert theory, moreover, demands the imposition of sanctions that are of a nature and sufficient degree of severity to express the public’s abhorrence of the crime for which the penalty was imposed.

Viewed in this light, the government’s announcements make complete sense. But we need to remember that the changes the government has foreshadowed have a far greater likelihood of making political mileage by expressing our collective outrage than of altering the behaviour of an unknown person’s twisted mind.

– Why the increased penalties for strawberry sabotage will do little to prevent the crime
– http://theconversation.com/why-the-increased-penalties-for-strawberry-sabotage-will-do-little-to-prevent-the-crime-103670]]>

It’s better light, not worse behaviour, that explains crimes on a full moon

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wayne Petherick, Associate professor of criminology, Bond University

It’s a full Moon on September 25.

If past months have been anything to go by, this will be accompanied by a round of public chat about how this affects human behaviour – claims of more hospital admissions and arrests, to crazy antics in children.

Beliefs in the Moon’s behavioural effects are not new and date back to ancient times. But what evidence is there that the Moon has an impact on behaviour?

As a criminologist, I look at evidence related to arrests and behaviour linked with criminal activity.

The only explanation I can see that links criminology with Moon phases is just about the practicalities of being a criminal: when it’s a full Moon, there’s more light.


Read more: Five reasons India, China and other nations plan to travel to the Moon


While somewhat dated, one of the most significant studies looking at Moon phases and linking this with behaviour is a 1985 meta-analysis – a study of the findings of 37 published and unpublished studies. The paper concludes it is not sound to infer that people behave any more – or less – strangely between Moon phases. The authors write:

Alleged relations between phases of the moon and behavior can be traced to inappropriate analyses […] and a willingness to accept any departure from chance as evidence of a lunar effect.

Two more recent studies have looked at links between criminal activity and phases of the Moon.

A study published in 2009 looked at more than 23,000 cases of aggravated assaults that took place in Germany between 1999 and 2005. The authors found no correlation between battery and the various lunar phases.

A study reported in 2016 was careful to make a distinction between indoor and outdoor crime committed in 13 US states and the District of Columbia in 2014.

The authors found no link between lunar phases and total crime or indoor crime.

But they did find the intensity of moonlight to have a substantive positive effect on outdoor criminal activity. As moon illumination increased, they saw an escalation in criminal activity.

One explanation for this finding is what is referred to as the “illumination hypothesis” – suggesting that criminals like enough light to ply their trade, but not so much as to increase their chance of apprehension.

It may also be that there is greater movement of people during lighter nights, thus providing a bigger pool of victims.


Read more: Confirmation bias: A psychological phenomenon that helps explain why pundits got it wrong


Why do some people still cling to the belief that the Moon causes criminal or other antisocial behaviour? The answer most likely lies in human cognition and our tendency to focus on that which we expect or predict to be true.

During an expected lunar event – such as a full or super Moon – we expect that there will be a change in behaviour so we pay more attention when we see it. In the area of cognitive psychology this is known as confirmation bias.

But other questions remain, including why any behavioural effects must be inherently negative? Even if there was a direct effect, explanations as to why acts of kindness and altruism do not increase or decrease during Moon phases are conspicuously absent.

It is likely that we just assume the folklore is true, and believe that we become the werewolf and not the sheep.

– It’s better light, not worse behaviour, that explains crimes on a full moon
– http://theconversation.com/its-better-light-not-worse-behaviour-that-explains-crimes-on-a-full-moon-101524]]>

Michelle Guthrie’s stint at ABC helm had a key weakness: she failed to back the journalists

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Denis Muller, Senior Research Fellow in the Centre for Advancing Journalism, University of Melbourne

Michelle Guthrie’s departure as managing director of the ABC, while a shock, is not surprising.

In the face of sustained pressure from the government and Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp, she has seemed incapable of mounting a sustained and effective response.

And in this environment of hostility, ABC journalists have felt under siege.

As editor-in-chief – which comes with the managing director’s job – Guthrie was unable to give the kind of robust editorial leadership that journalists need if they are to report fearlessly and independently.

It was clear by the middle of this year that whatever qualities Guthrie brought to the job, editorial leadership was not one of them. Thus the ABC was at a crossroads. It had as its managing director and editor-in-chief a person with no journalistic background who had shown scant signs of understanding the impact of the federal government’s relentless bullying on the ABC’s editorial independence.


Read more: Constant attacks on the ABC will come back to haunt the Coalition government


Then in June, Guthrie gave a speech at the Melbourne Press Club in which she said Australians regard the ABC as a great national institution and deeply resent its being used as “a punching bag by narrow political, commercial or ideological interests”.

It was strong but it came late in the day. By then, the weakness in editorial leadership had filtered down the ranks, so that journalists making everyday decisions on news desks were looking over their shoulders.

One first-hand example makes the point. In May, when Barnaby Joyce accepted money – reportedly $150,000 – to go on Channel Nine with his partner Vikki Campion and talk about their affair, the ABC invited me to write a commentary on the ethics involved.

I wrote that by agreeing to take the money, Joyce had called into question his fitness for public office.

This was too strong for the ABC, and the article did not run. I was told that it was a sensitive time for the ABC’s relations with the government. Instead the article was published by The Conversation and then by The Age and an online newspaper, The Mandarin.

It showed the effect of the water-torture approach the government has taken to the ABC, cheered on by News Corp’s The Australian: grizzles about the work of Emma Alberici as economics editor, most of which turned out to be baseless; grievances about Triple J’s changing the date of its Hottest 100 from Australia Day; more grizzles about Yassmin Abdel-Magied’s comments about Anzac Day.

Strong editors do not sit back and let this happen. Unless there are clear and substantial errors of fact, strong editors stand by their journalists and hit back hard and publicly at unwarranted criticism.

Strong editors also stand up for their journalists’ right to express opinions, when those opinions are based on facts that are substantially true.

And they do this personally, not through bureaucratic complaints processes that dilute the authority of the editor’s voice.

There were signs early on in Guthrie’s tenure that she did not grasp the editorial side of the job.

Having given a keynote address at the New News Conference in Melbourne in October 2016, she took questions from the audience. A man asked her about some ABC story or another, to which she replied that she was not responsible for every story that appeared on the ABC. Well, the fact is that the editor-in-chief is indeed responsible for every story that appears. The journalists in the audience were stunned.

Later, when Guthrie showed up at Senate estimates committee hearings, she would take along Alan Sunderland, who is in charge of editorial policies, to answer questions on the ABC’s journalism. This was simply not good enough. Guthrie was the editor-in-chief. She should have taken the questions – and the heat.

This state of affairs revealed a serious structural weakness in the ABC’s editorial leadership under her control. Sunderland had seemingly become de facto editor-in-chief, but without the ultimate authority. He is a Walkley Award-winning journalist with a strong news background, but highly qualified though he is, it is an untenable position.

Looking ahead, unless the ABC can find someone to combine the functions of managing director and editor-in-chief, as Guthrie’s predecessor Mark Scott did, it would be better to split the jobs.

This is the way good media outlets work. The editor-in-chief answers to the board through the managing director. The board and managing director answer to the shareholders – in the ABC’s case, the government.

The editor-in-chief is thus shielded in a way that enables him or her to make news decisions independent of corporate interests. It is called editorial independence and is the cornerstone of good journalism.


Read more: Why the ABC, and the public that trusts it, must stand firm against threats to its editorial independence


When the editor-in-chief is independent, the spirit of independence filters down to that small army of journalists making everyday decisions. They don’t look over their shoulder.

All that matters is that the stories are worth telling, that the reporting is accurate and fair, that commentaries are based on facts, and that stories are treated on the basis of their news value, and not on other considerations.

The ABC has announced that the acting managing director is David Anderson, who is currently Director, Entertainment and Specialist. This covers “broadcast television networks and associated services, radio music networks, podcasts and specialist radio content”.

Although he has nearly 30 years’ experience with the ABC, he has no background in journalism either, so it looks as if Sunderland will just have to soldier on.

– Michelle Guthrie’s stint at ABC helm had a key weakness: she failed to back the journalists
– http://theconversation.com/michelle-guthries-stint-at-abc-helm-had-a-key-weakness-she-failed-to-back-the-journalists-103759]]>

How to (gently) get your child to brush their teeth

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rebecca English, Lecturer in Education, Queensland University of Technology

For most parents, the phrase “I don’t want to brush my teeth” is rather familiar. While it may seem easiest to pry their mouth open and force them to brush, research suggests there are better ways that may positively influence children’s future dental health.

So, what does the literature say you should do to help children brush their teeth?

What is gentle parenting?

Gentle parenting centres around respect for the child. Parents who practise this approach generally avoid artificial or extrinsic rewards or punishments.

These parents try to help their children habituate appropriate, or what we would call “good”, behaviours. The idea is the child should want to do the “right” thing for its own sake, not because it’s accompanied by a reward or because of the threat of a punishment.

Studies suggest this method is effective because children will go on to have superior social skills and fewer behavioural problems. The effect is believed to continue into adulthood.

Contrary to popular belief, this style of parenting does not eschew “consequences”. Rather, consequences are allowed to flow naturally from behaviour. Although, in the case of dental hygiene, we can’t let the natural consequence of not brushing lead to caries. So, what can you do?


Read more: ‘Gentle parenting’ explainer: no rewards, no punishments, no misbehaving kids


When should you start encouraging dental hygiene?

One of the ways to ensure children brush their teeth, without resorting to bribes or punishments, is to start early. Dentists suggest brushing baby’s first teeth when they appear, even wiping gums, may help establish good dental hygiene early.

By starting early with dental care, it will become an established part of life and may cause fewer power struggles.

Let your child brush your teeth, and you theirs. from www.shutterstock.com

Does routine help?

Routine is said to be essential in children’s lives. Studies suggest routine can positively impact on children habituating positive behaviours because of the repeated exposure.

Families who provide a loving and consistent structure are more likely to have children who brush their teeth. Studies suggest taking a gamification approach creates an environment of fun around the routine of toothbrushing, creating better long-term oral hygiene.


Read more: How to discipline your children without rewards or punishment


Common areas that cause problems with brushing

One common issue is toothpaste. Children report not liking the taste or it making them feel funny. If your child won’t use toothpaste, but is otherwise OK with brushing, dentists recommend making the paste optional.

There are also many other flavours on the market besides mint, which some children may prefer to use and which may reduce the issue with refusal to brush their teeth.

But changing the toothpaste may not be enough. Studies suggest children’s refusal to brush teeth can create major family dramas, and parents report tooth brushing as a major site of power struggles. But effective behaviour management leads to children with fewer caries and healthy mouths.


Read more: Children’s toothpaste: the facts


Practical measures

When children refuse to brush their teeth, we can employ respectful methods to encourage them to develop good dental hygiene. Dentists report positive parent-child interactions and the use of positive discipline can result in good teeth brushing behaviour.

One example is having a special song that is sung only when the child allows their parent to brush their teeth.

Another strategy is reading stories about teeth brushing so children understand the importance of good dental hygiene.

Some suggest allowing your child to carefully brush your teeth, and then you can have a turn at theirs. This approach gives the child power and allows them to explore their feelings about having their teeth brushed.

Making it a game is another strategy. Perhaps you and your child can have a competition to see who can make the most spit at the end or whether you can count all your teeth as you go. Another option is to let the child start by brushing their toy’s teeth.

Having our children learn to brush their teeth in a calm and gentle way, without threats or rewards, is essential, with one dentist suggesting dental phobia is a problem when children have negative experiences at the dentist because of early childhood caries. Dental phobia is a fear of the dentist that prevents people with dental issues seeking help from a dentist.

These strategies can help children who are resistant to brushing to engage positively with dental hygiene. This approach takes longer than prying their mouths open and forcing them to have their teeth brushed, because you’re asking your child to engage with something they’re resisting. But the value is they will habituate good dental hygiene practices and you can end power struggles over teeth brushing.

– How to (gently) get your child to brush their teeth
– http://theconversation.com/how-to-gently-get-your-child-to-brush-their-teeth-102713]]>

Next ABC chief must be advocate for public broadcasting, says MEAA

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Dumped ABC managing director Michelle Guthrie … her term will be remembered for “historically low” funding, redundancies. Image: SBS

Pacific Media Watch Newsdesk

The next managing director of the ABC must be prepared to fight for better funding and independence, and to champion public broadcasting in a hostile political environment, says the union representing the ABC’s editorial staff.

The Media, Entertainment & Arts Alliance says the sacking of Michelle Guthrie follows a tumultuous period for the ABC.

MEAA members hope that new leadership, temporarily under David Anderson, could be a circuit breaker for the organisation, says the MEAA.

READ MORE: ‘I am devastated,’ says sacked boss as she considers legal options

The director of MEAA Media, Katelin McInerney, said Guthrie’s two-and-a-half years as managing director would unfortunately be remembered for historically low levels of funding culminating in the loss of $84 million in this year’s budget, hundreds of redundancies, unprecedented political attacks on the ABC’s independence and low staff morale.

“It is no secret the ABC is caught in the pincers – between the need to invest in an ever-changing media landscape, and a decline in real funding to historically low levels,” McInerney said.

-Partners-

“The next managing director of the ABC will face real challenges, including how to restore the trust and confidence of staff by ending the ‘Hunger Games’ processes, casualisation, and outsourcing which in four years have seen more than 1000 experienced workers leave the organisation,” she said.

“They must have a clear vision for the ABC and be able to articulate the direction they want to take the organisation.

“They must be a vocal public advocate for the ABC, who is prepared to tackle head-on the historically low levels of ABC funding with meaningful engagement with the Federal Government.

“They must be 100% committed to public broadcasting and to fend off any attempts to privatise the ABC either directly or by stealth.

“They must be a champion for quality Australian content and specialist content and a staunch defender of the ABC’s independence and of its editorial staff. This includes refocusing daily journalism away from lifestyle content and ‘clickbait’ and back towards news and current affairs.

“Importantly, the ABC board must also be prepared to back the staff of the ABC and the integrity of the ABC as a respected publicly-owned institution in the face of unrelenting political attacks.

“MEAA will shortly be writing to the incoming MD to seek positive engagement and consultation on the above issues, and hope to involve our members with an improved dialogue with management on the challenges the ABC faces.

“We feel it is time for a new vision and new direction for the ABC to emerge, allowing journalists and content makers to get on with the job of serving audiences with the content they trust.”

The ABC MEAA House Committee asked that external critics of the organisation pause to give the new leadership some time and space, to allow this dialogue to happen in good faith, the MEAA statement said.

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Australia has the wealth to ensure a sustainable future, but too many people are being left behind

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sue Richardson, Adjunct professor, University of Adelaide

The purpose of our social, economic and political systems is to enable all Australians to lead good lives. Australia is doing well on some fronts. It ranks third out of 188 countries on the UN Human Development Index, which takes into account life expectancy, education and national income per capita. We also rank 19th on national income per capita.

This suggests Australia is rather good at converting national income into social well-being. But a key question is whether we are using our income in a way that will continue to enable all Australians to lead materially, socially and environmentally enriching lives. That is, are we acting in a way that is both fair and sustainable?

A report released by the National Sustainable Development Council, in collaboration with the Monash Sustainable Development Institute, provides robust data on many of the specific indicators related to environmental, social and economic well-being. These indicators give us a clear idea how well we are doing in the important goal of “leaving no one behind” and providing the same opportunities for future generations.

Inequality remains high despite economic growth

A remarkable feature of Australia’s economy is that, with some fluctuations, real income per capita rose by over 40% from 2000 to 2012, but has not increased at all since. This has left many people feeling stressed and disgruntled about living costs.

There is a sense that a high income is not enough to lead a good life – a continuously rising income is needed. Coupled with the high inequality in society and a worsening environmental footprint, it all points to threats to the sustainability of our current standard of living.


Read more: Growth without direction: How Australia measures up against UN targets


The large rise in income in recent years was accompanied by a decrease in the rates of poverty and material disadvantage, especially before 2013. The increase in the value of the age pension made a material contribution to this. In contrast, the falling relative value of Newstart has had the opposite effect.

Overall, inequality remains high by Australian and international standards. The government continues to play a very important role in offsetting at least some of this inequality. However, this is sustainable only if people remain willing to pay the necessary taxes and support transfer payments to help those with lower incomes.

Australia is also doing well in the health of the population. Life expectancy is among the highest in the world, reflecting comparatively low rates of illness and injury. Good health is supported by a well-resourced, universal healthcare system, substantial gains in reducing deaths from road accidents, and world-leading tobacco control policies.


Read more: Australia’s UN report card: making progress, could do better on inequality and climate


However, our good health and well-being is challenged by high rates of obesity and alcohol consumption. Further, the proportion of the population experiencing high to very high levels of psychological distress has not fallen. Between 15% and 20% of young and middle-aged women now report having high to very high levels of distress.

And we do leave people behind. Indigenous people have much poorer health and lower life expectancy than the general population – a stain on our society.

Early childhood education is lagging behind, too

Australia is performing well in some areas of education: we have high rates of post-secondary school education, our students consistently perform well in collaborative problem solving, and Australian adults rate well above the OECD average in technological problem solving.

But, again, we’re performing poorly on sustainability. Student performance in literacy, maths and science on the international PISA tests has fallen and the percentage of children aged five who are developing normally in overall learning, health and psycho-social well-being has remained stagnant.

Australia is also a laggard among OECD countries in its public support of early childhood learning and development. The only improvement has been in language skills for children aged five.


Read more: Australia falls further in rankings on progress towards UN Sustainable Development Goals


In other societal issues, the Monash report showed that Australians are increasingly fearful of violent crime, despite low crime rates. Tougher laws have been introduced in response to this fear of crime, and imprisonment rates have risen significantly in recent years. This fear undermines social trust, which is very hard to recover and is a threat to the sustainability of our social cohesion.

Australia is also lagging on gender equality. Women continue to face far greater economic insecurity than men. This is particularly evident at retirement, when women’s superannuation balances are 42% below that of men’s, reflecting their substantially lower lifetime earnings.

Most disturbingly, the proportion of women and girls subjected to physical, sexual and psychological violence remains unacceptably high. Domestic and family violence remains the leading preventable contributor to death and illness for women aged 18–44.

Australia has done remarkably well on some of its UN Sustainability Development Goals. But there is definitely room for improvement, particularly in the way we are degrading our natural world and key areas of health, education and social inequality. We need to address these threats to sustainability if we’re going to ensure our people enjoy good lives now – and in the future.


This article is part of a series looking at Australia’s progress toward meeting the UN Sustainable Development Goals, based on a report published by the Monash University Sustainable Development Institute.

– Australia has the wealth to ensure a sustainable future, but too many people are being left behind
– http://theconversation.com/australia-has-the-wealth-to-ensure-a-sustainable-future-but-too-many-people-are-being-left-behind-102979]]>

1980s Berlin comes to life in Welcome the Bright World’s quest for ‘truth’

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa Harper Campbell, Lecturer in Drama Theory, Film Studies & French, Flinders University

Review: Welcome the Bright World, Adelaide.


Performance group House of Sand, in collaboration with the State Theatre Company of South Australia, has mounted an ambitious production of Stephen Sewell’s work, Welcome the Bright World. The play questions truth, humanity and what constitutes our individual and collective worlds.

Over three acts, the audience is transported to 1980s Berlin, a tumultuous period in German history characterised by division, domestic terrorism and the Cold War.

We view this world through the experiences of Max Lewin (played with clarity and lovely nuance by Terence Crawford), a mathematician and physicist aiming to contribute meaningfully to the world through his work. Haunted yet hopeful, Max balances his personal relationships with his photographer wife Anat (Jo Stone) and anarchist daughter Rebekah (Georgia Stanley) with his working life in the field of particle physics alongside Sebastian (Roman Vaculik). He also begins work in data collection and analysis for a government keen to control (read: monitor) its civilians.

Welcome the Bright World. Kate Pardey

Adelaide’s Queen’s Theatre, an underutilised but intriguing space in and of itself, serves as an appropriate backdrop. It evokes the kind of derelict repurposed studio spaces set up by European artists of the time who embraced punk and anarchy in defiance of the 1980s’ avant-garde movement. This is further reinforced by the theatre’s hallway entrance acting as a gallery space exhibiting some of Anat’s photos.

The stage is effectively divided into five areas. Each side of the main stage boasts a raised platform of incomplete floorboards and stairs descending to the open centre downstage area. It invites us to question what lurks beneath the surface of everyday life. Upstage double doors open to an outside courtyard area and an elevated empty doorframe on the upstage wall acts as a useful framed balcony for peripheral action and imagery.

This constructed world is populated by engaging, movable set-pieces (the illuminated, transparent “blackboards” were a highlight) and beautifully costumed actors, courtesy of Karla Urizar’s work as production and costume designer as well as the State Theatre Company’s workshop and wardrobe.

Owen McCarthy’s lighting design offers clear points of focus and seamless transitions. However, the use of projected images is only intermittently successful.

The Brechtian technique of intertitles announcing changes in acts, time and space is beneficial, as is the inclusion of Anat’s photographic work. On the other hand, the lingering image of Oedipus (communicating a family unit engaged in self-destruction) and the recurring rain clouds (a feeling of gloomy uncertainty) seem excessive, driving home points already made several times in the script. Mario Spate’s oppressive soundscape seemed more of a hindrance than a help in the creation of any tension or atmosphere.

Projections reference Oedipus. Kate Pardey

The production is thematically concerned with truth. Max and Sebastian’s work leads them to the potential discovery of “Truth”, the final quark (an elementary particle and a fundamental constituent of matter) that had eluded scientists for decades. Anat is a photographer fascinated by the corporeal expression of emotional truths. Both Max and Anat are interested in the physical world, each trying to explain, capture and frame it, but in different ways.


Read more: Explainer: quarks


Max’s collaboration with the government to develop a system of data collection for surveillance also holds contemporary relevance for life in a digital age where “truth” and identity consist of data; information that is accessible, marketable and susceptible to manipulation.

The playwright’s notes describe Welcome The Bright World as an investigation into “how human beings themselves are moulded and twisted as we try to survive the inhuman forces tearing us apart”. The lies we tell ourselves as individuals (and as a nation) in order to survive and relate to one another are reinforced by the web of lies between the married characters, and also by references to Germany’s wartime experiences.

Max’s dual German and Jewish identities are brought into direct conflict, especially when he engages with both his Holocaust-survivor father, Mr Lewin senior, and a former Nazi now government associate, Dr Mencken (both played by Patrick Frost).

His daughter Rebekah, representative of a new German and Jewish generation, undergoes a political awakening throughout the play. She rebels against authority and its manipulation of the “truth”, all while questioning, with nihilist undertones, the meaning of it all.

Sewell’s script does well to entangle the personal with the political and the physical with the philosophical – challenging audiences to accept that one cannot exist without the other. Director Charles Sanders along with House of Sand are to be commended for not only bringing this work to life in a vibrant space through the work of a committed cast and creative team but also for inviting Adelaide audiences to engage with a thought-provoking piece questioning fundamental truths about ourselves and our world.


Welcome the Bright World is being staged by the State Theatre Company of South Australia until October 6 2018.

– 1980s Berlin comes to life in Welcome the Bright World’s quest for ‘truth’
– http://theconversation.com/1980s-berlin-comes-to-life-in-welcome-the-bright-worlds-quest-for-truth-103758]]>

Public schools losing out in political power plays

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emma Rowe, Lecturer in the School of Education, Deakin University

Last week Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced a significant funding boost for private schools. The federal government will provide an extra A$4.6 billion over the next ten years for Catholic and Independent schools exclusively.

The package includes a A$1.2 billion “Choice and Affordability Fund”, with poorly defined priority objectives relating to diversity and access.

This is an historically significant announcement for the state of Australian schools. Since the Howard government, there have been no significant boosts of income, particularly of this size, for private schools exclusively. It comes in the wake of the previous education minister, Simon Birmingham, conceding private schools are “over-funded”.


Read more: To reduce inequality in Australian schools, make them less socially segregated


The mantra of choice

Morrison began the announcement with a repeated phrase: “our government believes in choice in education” and again, “our government believes parents should have choice in education”.

In his announcement, the Prime Minister claimed that increased funding will better support parents to choose private schools.

When considering the data on private school enrolment since the 1980s, it’s not true increased government subsidies for private schools better supports parents of all socio-economic status backgrounds to choose private schools. So the claim that this funding boost will improve diversity is ill-informed.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Education Minister Dan Tehan announced the deal on Thursday afternoon. Mick Tsikas/AAP

Not surprisingly, the National Catholic Education Commission and Independent School Council of Australia have come out in support of the special deal. The Labor Party and the Australian Education Union have criticised the announcement.

This means we will likely see a continued policy focus on private schools if Morrison remains in office, and a renewed focus on the public sector should Labor be elected. Either way, this issue is set to be an election-year political football.

Public schools educate the most disadvantaged students

While many advocates of choice policies argue lower-income students also attend private schools, lower income students are the minority in these schools. The public sector educates 36% of students who represent the lowest socio-economic status bracket in Australia. This is contrasted to the Independent sector, which educates 13% of the lowest socio-economic status bracket. The proportion is higher in the Catholic sector, at 21%.

The Independent school sector receives a total of 42% of its net recurrent income from both federal and state government. This equals approximately A$8.2 billion to educate 14% of the population.

In terms of the private sector overall (incorporating both the Independent and Catholic sector) the amount of funding private schools receive annually is approximately A$12.8 billion, according to the 2017 Productivity Commission Report. The extra injection of funding by the Morrison government (A$4.6 billion for both Independent and Catholic), is a sizeable sum on top of this.

The special funding deal for Catholic and independent schools will only exacerbate segregation by socio-economic status. from www.shutterstock.com

Research also tells us this funding boost for private schools will not necessarily result in lower school fees. Even though federal government funding of private schools has consistently increased since the 1990s, parent tuition fees for the majority of private schools have increased.

Australian Bureau of Statistics data indicate education costs are outstripping inflation. From December 2014 to December 2015, the cost of education for consumers increased by 5.5%, compared to general inflation of 1.5%, as measured by the Consumer Price Index.

Policy should focus on the public sector

The federal government has historically been the principle funder of private schools. Historically, state governments are responsible for state (public) schools. But this clear delineation of responsibility has been consistently shifting since the Gillard/Labor government.

The federal government needs to take a more proactive role in protecting and supporting public schools, and the majority of the population who attend them. Though the states are typically responsible for schools funding, the federal government offers greater protection and security of funding for schools, primarily due to vertical fiscal imbalance and the greater resources it can draw upon. State governments are frequently held at ransom by the federal government.


Read more: Three charts on: why Catholic primary school parents can afford to pay more


This special funding deal will only further stimulate the private school sector and exacerbate segregation by socio-economic status across school sectors.

The Review to Achieve Education Excellence in Schools calls for a “sector-blind” approach to education reform, an approach that will “enable all students to achieve educational excellence”, regardless of their school sector. This latest announcement contradicts the prior policy papers from this government.

The public school sector caters for our society’s most disadvantaged. This is the school sector we should be actively celebrating and supporting through bold federal government initiatives.

– Public schools losing out in political power plays
– http://theconversation.com/public-schools-losing-out-in-political-power-plays-103677]]>

Stay alive, and if something moves, shoot it: one year of phenomenal success for Fortnite

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steven Conway, Senior Lecturer – Games and Interactivity, Swinburne University of Technology

The online videogame Fortnite Battle Royale was launched just a year ago in September 2017. Since then the game had amassed 125 million active players by June and made US$1.2 billion (A$1.6 billion) for the developer, Epic Games.

It has also been linked to 200 divorces and a case of aggravated harassment where a 45-year-old man threatened to kill an 11-year-old boy after losing to him in the game.


Read more: Could playing Fortnite lead to video game addiction? The World Health Organisation says yes, but others disagree


Love it or hate it, the question begs: How has Epic Games created a game with such enormous social, economic and psychological impact?

Just shoot!

Fusing elements from recent hits such as Minecraft, PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds and Overwatch, the game is deceptively simple: up to 100 players are placed in a constantly shrinking environment, and the objective is to be the last person (or team) standing.

Think Hunger Games and you’re not too far off.

Fortnite’s success rests on three principles: accessibility, sociality and spectacle.

Accessibility

The game is completely free to play and, as of August 2018, it’s available on all major platforms, from consoles to phones to PCs and Macs.

It’s very simple to play: stay alive, and if something moves, shoot it. It can also be played in very short bursts. The average match goes for 20 minutes or so.

Just shoot! Flickr/Whelsko, CC BY

The free-to-play business model emerged in the late 1990s as the internet drove a social and cultural shift in how we view and use entertainment. People were now less inclined to pay for a one-off, single piece of static content, and more inclined to invest in an evolving library of content accessible at any time.

This shift is often described as a move from offering a “product” to offering a “service”. Game makers were, as ever, early adopters, providing downloadable content to users for a fee.

Downloadable content became commonplace as broadband availability and smartphone adoption grew. Soon developers were releasing “freemium” games with “in-app purchases”: you can play the game for free, but gain a bunch of advantages by paying.

But converting players to purchasers is a tough business: a 2% conversion rate is not uncommon.

Fortnite has managed an astonishing 68.8% conversion rate, with the regular spend being US$85 (A$117). More pointedly, the average spend is 850 “V-bucks”, Fortnite’s in-game currency.

This is a classic trick of psychology known by theme parks and banks: exchange real money for something more abstract (like Disney dollars or payment by card tap), and the pain of parting with your hard-earned cash lessens.

Epic is also very active here, listening to the player base and constantly updating content to tease more V-bucks from players’ wallets.

Sociality

This leads into the second principle: Fortnite is built to be social.

When you pay, you’re mostly buying cosmetic items, such as a new outfits, dances or taunts. These items are not about providing gameplay advantages, but about players wanting to express themselves.

More than 70 million views!

Accessibility once more helps. Since the game is free and on every major platform, users can play with friends whether on their phone, console or computer.

Enough play time and customisation generates a sense of psychological investment, as a person’s sense of identity becomes linked to the game.

At this point Fortnite can activate psychological triggers, often based on negative emotions such as “FOMO” (“Fear Of Missing Out”), by sending notifications on your platform of choice whenever a friend starts or joins a game. This pushes players to engage with the game once again.

Of course, the downside to this is feeling compelled to play even at inopportune moments. Thus a US survey reports that 35% of students have skipped study to play, and 20.5% of workers have missed work for Fortnite shenanigans. And, as I said earlier, an addiction to Fortnite and other online games has been mentioned in 200 divorces in the UK.

Spectacle

It’s well known by game developers that, for a player, losing a match is a horrible moment. So if you’re going to make your player fail, make failure fun.

Building on sociality, Fortnite makes failure a spectator sport. When you’re eliminated, you get to watch your team mates, or the player who eliminated you.

The fun of failing.

This is of course a prime opportunity for your antagonist to unleash their latest and greatest dance moves and taunts, but it also makes for great streaming material.

One YouTube and Twitch streamer, Tyler “Ninja” Blevins, has made up to US$500,000 a month streaming Fortnite sessions from his bedroom (even playing with hip-hop royalty Drake, setting a new Twitch viewer record). He’s so popular that he is due to appear on the front cover of the October issue of the ESPN sports magazine.

The game’s cartoonish style drives a lot of this spectacle, allowing a broad spectrum of fashion choices: from tooled-up cyberpunk ninjas firing lasers, to tomato-headed grenadiers shooting “boogie bombs” which make enemies dance upon contact.

This again reinforces accessibility and sociality, as everyone feels welcome, and everyone finds something expressive of themselves.

How long can a Fortnite last?

The question now, as with any gaming trend, is how long this can last. While games such as Pokémon Go often have blockbuster openings, revenue quickly declines.


Read more: Facebook punts on gaming to lure millennials back to the platform


One year on from launch, Fortnite is still going strong – at the moment –and releasing on Android in August opened up a whole new market.

Whether Epic Games can keep up the pace, offering fresh new content appealing to its player base, is an open question.

How long will people keep shooting things on Fortnite? Flickr/Whelsko, CC BY

– Stay alive, and if something moves, shoot it: one year of phenomenal success for Fortnite
– http://theconversation.com/stay-alive-and-if-something-moves-shoot-it-one-year-of-phenomenal-success-for-fortnite-103528]]>

What the stoush between the federal government and the CFMMEU is really about (spoiler: there’s an election coming)

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Peetz, Professor of Employment Relations, Centre for Work, Organisation and Wellbeing, Griffith University

Since Malcolm Turnbull was ousted as prime minister, we have seen a renewed focus by the federal government on targeting union officials.

The latest, and also most enduring, target is the Construction, Forestry, Maritime, Mining and Energy Union (CFMMEU). Prime Minister Scott Morrison has even suggested the government could try to deregister the union.

Mergers and the CFMMEU

The CFMMEU is one of Australia’s larger unions, a merger of the old CFMEU (which in turn is the old building, mining and forestry unions) plus the much smaller Maritime Union of Australia (hence the extra M in the acronym) and the even smaller Textiles, Clothing and Footwear Union.

All union mergers go through a series of ballots. These led to ‘yes’ votes and the Fair Work Commission ratified the merger. This occurred despite opposition from employers and the federal government. Their opposition was ostensibly based on the idea of a single union having coverage of multiple points in a supply chain (as companies already do).

There is nothing new about such opposition. The original balloting rules, then requiring half of members to vote in any ballot, were introduced in 1972 by the McMahon Liberal government. Like the current government, McMahon’s was facing electoral defeat. It had failed to prevent the creation of the then Amalgamated Metal Workers’ Union, then legislated to thwart repeat occurrences.


Read more: Unions have a history of merging – that’s why the new ‘super union’ makes sense


More than four decades later, after the FWC allowed the creation of the CFMMEU, the Turnbull government tried to introduce urgent legislation to stop the merger. That failed to pass the Senate after cross-benchers became disconcerted by the interference in workers’ affairs — and by the lack of action in other areas where more important monopolies had been created.

There was also nothing new about enmity between the government and the union, especially its largest division, representing construction workers. The establishment, twice, of the Australian Building and Construction Commission targeting the construction division, was the most obvious display of that.

The threat of deregistration

Having failed again, the Morrison government now seems to want to introduce legislation enabling the deregistration of the CFMMEU.

Registration gives unions some of the privileges of acting within the federal system of industrial regulation. The benefits for unions are much less than they used to be, when the whole award system was founded on registration of organisations of employers and employees. Now the system has a different constitutional basis and old procedures no longer matter. Minimum wage and other rules apply nationally, regardless of whether a union is registered.

So the main benefit now is that certain types of industrial action are immune from claims for damages by affected employers. That is, some types of strikes within the system are legal.

But even that is less valuable than it once was. This is because many restrictions have been placed on the right to strike. Many instances of action that would be considered legitimate overseas are now “unlawful” in Australia. A United Nations body, the International Labour Organisation, has expressed concern about restrictions on the right to strike in Australia.

Even if the legislation were passed and the union deregistered, the law’s objectives would probably not be achieved.

In the past half century, there have been two occasions on which a union in the construction industry was deregistered, due to its militancy. The circumstances, however, were very different from now.

In both cases, the union concerned faced competition from within the union movement. The first case, in the 1970s, concerned the NSW branch of the Builders Labourers Federation (BLF). The second, in the 1980s, concerned its national office. Once the BLF was deregistered, other branches or unions, also militant, moved in and took over their membership. No such situation exists now.

A deregistered CFMMEU?

If the CFMMEU was deregistered, the less militant Australian Workers Union (AWU) might take their members in some sites, encouraged by employers. Many members, though, would stay with the CFMMEU.

The union would, in effect, be forced to operate outside the law. This would be a rather ironic outcome, since the government’s complaint has long been that too often it operates outside the law. (However, many attempts to prosecute the union’s officials have failed – sometimes spectacularly).

The strategy to date of the government, and employers, has been to try to bankrupt the union through the courts. They have discovered the union has good lawyers and deep pockets.

But imagine how much more easily the union could avoid the regulators if it were no longer under the scrutiny or rules of the Registered Organisations Commission and could, for example, transfer funds between various versions of itself.

Overall, registration holds more benefits for unions than operating outside the system. That is why most stay registered. A deregistered CFMMEU would likely be considerably smaller and with fewer resources but, on the other hand, also more militant and dangerous for employers.

Many of the industries it covers — most obviously construction, but also mining, forestry and the waterfront — are very hazardous, and workers’ concern for safety lends itself to unionisation. Militant worker action would not go away simply because the union was outside the legal system.

For that reason, it is hard to see some employers genuinely promoting this push (as opposed to supporting it publicly, as part of a political attack on the union).

Politics and ideology

The government’s push for deregistration, along with a number of other actions in the area of industrial relations, should not really be seen as part of a strategy to bring industrial peace to the economy. It is best seen in political and ideological terms.

The ideological dimension arises from the fact that probably the only thing that unites Coalition MPs is a dislike or hatred of unions. It is probably the issue that most distinguishes Coalition and Labor candidates. So action on this front is one of the few things the new Prime Minister can do to try to unify his fractured party.


Read more: Why union members earn higher wages than their non-union colleagues


The other political dimension is an attempt to get the electorate to focus on industrial relations issues before the next election, in light of the government’s poor position in the polls. But this is a fraught strategy.

In the 2016 election, the Turnbull government ran a very hard anti-union line. Yet it appears that, on balance, industrial relations was an issue that favoured Labor rather than the Coalition. The additional swing against the government in seats where the ACTU campaigned appeared to more than make up for any gains in Voctoria due to the dispute over the Country Fire Authority. The broad anti-union campaign appeared to produce little benefit.

This is probably because unionism is a base issue. It is central to differentiating Labor and conservative members and supporters, but it does much less to sway swinging voters.

The danger is that putting the focus on industrial relations issues will just highlight the ACTU’s “change the rules” campaign. There has been a lot of on-the-ground work undertaken on that campaign. Its central claim is that low wages and insecure conditions are a result of rules rigged against unions.

Running an election campaign on a theme of union power is not likely to persuade many people, but it would take the government into territory that unions may like it to play in. It lost seats in 2016 on such a strategy, and would be on even weaker ground now.

– What the stoush between the federal government and the CFMMEU is really about (spoiler: there’s an election coming)
– http://theconversation.com/what-the-stoush-between-the-federal-government-and-the-cfmmeu-is-really-about-spoiler-theres-an-election-coming-103428]]>

Australia’s residential aged care facilities are getting bigger and less home-like

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ralph Hampson, Senior Lecturer, Health and Ageing, University of Melbourne

Most older people want to stay at home as long as they can. When this is no longer possible, they move into residential aged care facilities, which become their home. But Australia’s care facilities for the aged are growing in size and becoming less home-like.

In 2010–11, 54% of residential aged care facilities in major Australian cities had more than 60 places, and the size of the average facility is growing.

Today, more than 200,000 Australians live or stay in residential aged care on any given day. There are around 2,672 such facilities in Australia. This equates to an average of around 75 beds per facility.

Large institutions for people with disability and mental illness, as well as orphaned children, were once commonplace. But now – influenced by the 1960s deinstitutionalisation movement – these have been closed down and replaced with smaller community-based services. In the case of aged care, Australia has gone the opposite way.


Read more: How our residential aged-care system doesn’t care about older people’s emotional needs


Why is smaller better?

Evidence shows that aged care residents have better well-being when given opportunities for self-determination and independence. Internationally, there has been a move towards smaller living units where the design encourages this. These facilities feel more like a home than a hospital.

The World Health Organisation has indicated that such models of care, where residents are also involved in running the facility, have advantages for older people, families, volunteers and care workers, and improve the quality of care.

In the US, the Green House Project has built more than 185 homes with around 10-12 residents in each. Studies show Green House residents’ enhanced quality of life doesn’t compromise clinical care or running costs.

Older people have a better quality of life if they can be involved in outdoor activities. from shutterstock.com

Around 50% of residents living in aged care facilities have dementia. And research has shown that a higher quality of life for those with dementia is associated with buildings that help them engage with a variety of activities both inside and outside, are familiar, provide a variety of private and community spaces and the amenities and opportunities to take part in domestic activities.

In June 2018, an Australian study found residents with dementia in aged-care facilities that provided a home-like model of care had far better quality of life and fewer hospitalisations than those in more standard facilities. The home-like facilities had up to 15 residents.

The study also found the cost of caring for older people in the smaller facilities was no higher, and in some cases lower, than in institutionalised facilities.


Read more: Caring for elderly Australians in a home-like setting can reduce hospital visits


There are some moves in Australia towards smaller aged care services. For example, aged care provider Wintringham has developed services with smaller facilities for older people who are homeless. Wintringham received the Building and Social Housing Foundation World Habitat Award 1997 for Wintringham Port Melbourne Hostel. Its innovative design actively worked against the institutional model.

Bigger and less home-like

Historically, nursing homes in Australia were small facilities, with around 30 beds each, often run as family businesses or provided by not-for-profit organisations. Between 2002 and 2013 the proportion of facilities with more than 60 beds doubled to 48.6%. Financial viability rather than quality of care drove the increase in size.

Today, around 45% of facilities are operated by the private for-profit sector, 40% by religious and charitable organisations, 13% by community-based organisations, 3% by state and territory governments, and less than 1% by local governments.


Read more: It’s hard to make money in aged care, and that’s part of the problem


In 2016, the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) reported that residential care services run by government organisations were more likely to be in small facilities. One-fifth (22%) of places in these facilities are in services with 20 or fewer places. Almost half (49%) of privately-run residential places are found in services with more than 100 places.

All of this means that more older Australians are living out their last days in an institutional environment.

Once larger facilities become the norm, it will be difficult to undo. Capital infrastructure is built to have an average 40-year life, which will lock in the institutional model of aged care.

The built environment matters. The royal commission provides an opportunity to fundamentally critique the institutional model.

– Australia’s residential aged care facilities are getting bigger and less home-like
– http://theconversation.com/australias-residential-aged-care-facilities-are-getting-bigger-and-less-home-like-103521]]>

I’ve always wondered: are SUVs and 4WDs safer than other cars?

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Logan, Senior Research Fellow, Monash University Accident Research Centre, Monash University

This is an article from I’ve Always Wondered, a series where readers send in questions they’d like an expert to answer. Send your question to alwayswondered@theconversation.edu.au


The Sydney suburbs around me are clogged with huge 4WD cars which have never seen a dirt road. I think people buy them because they think they are safer. Are they? – Petrina of Greenwich


The popularity of SUVs, 4WDs and commercial utilities is showing no signs of abating in Australia. In the first six months of 2018, passenger vehicles made up just one-third of new vehicle sales (down from 50% five years ago) and SUVs 43% (up from 29% in 2013). Six of the top ten models sold in this period were SUVs and commercial utilities. Clearly, increasing numbers of people are choosing these vehicles for reasons including image and versatility, but how is this trend affecting road safety?

Our analysis of data from safety tests and crash records suggests the move to SUVs is problematic for road safety in the case of large and small SUVs, as well as commercial utes. This is mainly because these vehicles put other road users at a higher risk of severe injury.

How do we measure safety?

To answer the question, “Are SUVs and 4WDs safer than other cars?” we need to decide first how to measure safety. One option is to consult test results from the New Car Assessment Program (NCAP), a global alliance that subjects new vehicles to standardised laboratory tests.

These tests mostly cover the performance of the car in a crash, including adult and child occupant protection and pedestrian protection. Instrumented crash test dummies are used to measure crash forces and then estimate the likely injuries to human occupants. “Safety assist” tests have been introduced recently to evaluate how well the car can avoid a crash, but we’ll focus on crash protection here.

The problem with NCAP and similar test programs is that these can include only a very small range of tests compared to those occurring in the real world on many different roads and speeds. And real-world crashes happen to real people of all shapes, sizes and ages, impossible to represent fully with a few different crash test dummies.

The MUARC-developed Used Car Safety Rating (UCSR) program aims to overcome this issue by developing ratings based on real-world crashes throughout Australia and New Zealand. The latest dataset contains information on over 7.5 million drivers involved in crashes between 1987 and 2015 for vehicles manufactured in the 33 years up to 2015.

Where individual vehicle models have been involved in sufficient crashes for meaningful results, these are rated on:

  • “crashworthiness” – the vehicle’s ability to protect occupants from being killed or seriously injured (resulting in hospital admissions) in a crash
  • “aggressivity” – the risk of death or serious injury caused to other drivers and unprotected road users such as pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists colliding with the rated vehicle.

Comparison vehicles

For this study we chose two vehicles in each of the large, medium and small segments: one SUV and one passenger car.

In the small vehicle class, we chose the Hyundai i30 hatchback and the Mitsubishi ASX, both top-three sellers in their under $40,000 segments.

The ever-popular Toyota Camry was chosen to match up against the Mazda CX-5 SUV in the medium (under $60,000) class.

In the large segment, the Toyota Kluger was the most popular SUV under $70,000 for June 2018 and second overall for the year. We compared it with the Holden Commodore, the best seller in the rapidly shrinking large car segment. The latest Commodore is too new to feature in the UCSR ratings, so we substituted the discontinued VF model.

Given that the Toyota Hilux is the most popular light vehicle overall in Australia, selling nearly 20% more units than its nearest competitor, we also included it in the large segment comparison.

Results – occupant safety

According to the Australian NCAP (ANCAP) program, all seven vehicles offer their occupants excellent protection, being awarded five-star ratings.

For pedestrian protection, both small vehicles, the Hyundai i30 and Mitsubishi ASX, were rated “acceptable” by ANCAP.

In the medium segment the Mazda CX-5 was also “acceptable”, better than the “marginal” rating of the Toyota Camry.

Both the Commodore and Kluger rated “marginal” for pedestrian protection in the large vehicle segment. The Toyota Hilux surprisingly came out “good” in this test involving the projection of components representing a head and a leg onto a variety of locations on the front and bonnet of the car.

The Used Car Safety Ratings tell a somewhat different story.

In the small vehicle segment, the i30 has a rating of 3.4, meaning the driver has a 3.4% chance of being injured if involved in a crash. The ASX scored 4.5, which because of statistical uncertainties in the estimates is not significantly different. However, it suggests this small SUV has around a 30% higher risk to its occupants in a crash.

In the medium segment, both vehicles were safer overall than their smaller counterparts, with ratings of 2.2 for the Camry and 2.6 for the CX-5. Again, these two ratings are not significantly different, but the medium SUV is about 20% less safe than the medium car.

Finally, the Kluger scored 2.3 compared with 2.0 for the Commodore, representing around a 14% increase in risk to its occupants in a crash. The Hilux scored 2.8, 40% worse than the Commodore.

Results – other road users’ safety

The ASX and i30 were comparable with ratings of 2.6 and 2.8 respectively, the small SUV being slightly less likely to injure other road users.

No aggressivity rating is available for the CX-5, with the Camry scoring 3.0 and therefore being slightly more aggressive to collision partners.

In the large segment, the Kluger scored best with a rating of 3.5. The Commodore was around 25% worse with a score of 4.4. The Hilux had an aggressivity rating of 4.9, a significant 40% more injurious to other road users than the similar-sized Kluger.

Conclusions

Looking at a small selection of vehicles, as we did in this study, does not necessarily represent the story of the whole population. The charts below represent the Used Car Safety Ratings by vehicle type for the overall market.

CC BY-ND CC BY-ND

While individual models vary, there are some important trends to be aware of:

  • Medium and large SUVs perform on par with their passenger car equivalents with regard to occupant protection. Commercial utes also protect occupants as well as large cars.

  • Small SUVs perform worse for occupant protection than small cars and are quite aggressive towards other road users, which is a poor compromise and problematic for a growing market group.

  • Overall, mid-size vehicles — whether conventional passenger or SUVs — strike the best balance between protecting occupants and other road users.

  • The big problem is the high aggressivity of large SUVs and commercial utilities – particularly the increasingly popular utes. This is largely a result of the high mass and ladder chassis construction of most of these vehicles, which is good for being tough but not good for running into other road users.

Overall, the move to SUVs is problematic for road safety in the case of large and small SUVs, as well as commercial utes. This is because these vehicles, while not improving crashworthiness overall, put other road users at a higher risk of severe injury. Therefore overall road trauma will be higher with a shift to these vehicle types.


* Email your question to alwayswondered@theconversation.edu.au
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– I’ve always wondered: are SUVs and 4WDs safer than other cars?
– http://theconversation.com/ive-always-wondered-are-suvs-and-4wds-safer-than-other-cars-98559]]>

Cuts and restructures send alarm through South Australia’s arts sector

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jo Caust, Associate Professor and Principal Fellow (Hon), University of Melbourne

South Australia’s Coalition government, elected in March 2018 after 16 years of Labor rule, has alarmed the state’s arts industry with major changes to the way the arts are structured and funded in South Australia.

The key structural change is that Arts SA, the body that administered, funded and advised about the arts, has been essentially downgraded to the role of a policy adviser. As part of the change, the head of Arts SA (a Labor government appointee) was dismissed.

In the recent state budget, the government announced cuts totalling $31.9 million over the next four years, including $18.5 million from organisations and programs and $13.4 million from Arts SA.

In July, the responsibility for several arts organisations was also given to other government departments. Various youth arts organisations, including theatre companies, are now under the Department of Education. Other organisations such as the South Australian Film Corporation, the Adelaide Film Festival and the Jam Factory are now the responsibility of the Department of Industry and Skills Development.


Read more: Beyond bulldust, benchmarks and numbers: what matters in Australian culture


How did we get here?

The arts have long been championed in SA, but in recent years the sector has started to stagnate. For several decades from the 1970s, Adelaide wore the mantle of the “Athens of the South”. The Adelaide Festival was regarded as the major arts festival in the Southern Hemisphere and the state led the way in establishing arts infrastructure as an essential part of government.

The arts in South Australia continued to enjoy bipartisan support for the next 20 or so years. The arts were usually under the control of the premier and led by a senior public servant, Len Amadio.

Changes began in the early 1990s. Premier John Bannon divested the arts from his own portfolio and from then on the arts were usually part of another minister’s portfolio. Gradually the arts fell down the political status pole and experienced both cuts and/or benign neglect.

Over the decade from 2008 to 2018 there was a perception that the arts had lost their political capital in the context of the state. Aside from the main arts festivals and the major cultural institutions such as the Adelaide Festival Centre Trust, other arts activities and organisations were generally ignored.

Worrying signs

In the lead-up to the state election, the Liberal Party promised that a Liberal government would develop a state arts plan as well as establish the position of a commissioner for cultural development. But the recent funding cuts and restructures suggest that, as the SA Arts Industry Council has said, the government is not listening to the arts community nor taking it seriously.

The Liberal Party also announced a vision for a National Aboriginal Arts and Cultural Gallery housing both contemporary Aboriginal art and traditional artefacts, instead of a new Contemporary Art Gallery at the old hospital site. This has been confirmed by $60 million committed in the budget.

While a National Aboriginal Gallery is a welcome idea, it seems there was limited consultation about the proposal with either the Aboriginal community or the arts community. The announcement also appears to abandon the concept of a new contemporary art gallery as hoped for by the Art Gallery of South Australia.


Read more: With support for arts funding declining, Australia must get better at valuing culture


The small to medium arts sector in South Australia was damaged by the changes in 2014-16 introduced by George Brandis, then federal arts minister. The impact of this period is still being felt by many. While other states have been consolidating and strengthening their arts and creative sector (such as Creative Victoria and Create New South Wales), the South Australian government appears to be in a process of deconstruction.

Many questions are now being raised about the relationship between the state Coalition government and the arts sector, particularly how the complexity of the arts will be understood and represented to government.

Arts SA’s function and effectiveness may have seemed to suffer from organisational paralysis and lack of effective strategic leadership for a long time. In addition, it could be said that the arts sector has suffered under a cloud of benign political neglect for several years.

Perhaps the changes that are occurring are a way to move the sector forward to another model of administration and structural framing that is not wholly dependent on economic outcomes. This could be a positive move, but at present there is no sign that the new government is moving towards another model. For example, while there is talk of an arts plan, no plan is seemingly in development. Meanwhile the cuts to the sector over the next four years are likely to inflict a great deal of damage on an already vulnerable sector.

– Cuts and restructures send alarm through South Australia’s arts sector
– http://theconversation.com/cuts-and-restructures-send-alarm-through-south-australias-arts-sector-103441]]>

Influence in Australian politics needs an urgent overhaul – here’s how to do it

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The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Griffiths, Senior Associate, Grattan Institute

Public policy should be made for all Australians – not just those with the resources or connections to lobby and influence politicians. And mostly it is. But sometimes bad policy is made or good policy is dropped because powerful groups have more say and sway than they should.

Australia’s political institutions are generally robust, but many of the “risk factors” for policy capture by special interests are present in our system. Political parties are heavily reliant on major donors, money can buy access, relationships and political connections, and there’s a lack of transparency in dealings between policymakers and special interests.

A new Grattan Institute report, Who’s in the room? Access and influence in Australian politics, reveals that access and influence are heavily skewed towards the businesses and unions that have the most to gain (and lose) from public policy.


Grattan Institute, CC BY-ND

Many examples of special-interest influence over policy look contrary to the public interest: special deals for insiders (for example, James Packer’s Sydney casino), interest groups with a seat at the table in deciding how their own industry is regulated (such as pharmaceuticals pricing), and lobby groups blocking reforms that have broad support (such as climate change policy and pokies reforms).


Read more: Time for the federal government to catch up on political donations reform


Better checks and balances are needed. But the question of what to do about undue influence is tricky. Interests should be able to advocate for themselves, and donate money to support causes they believe in. Lobbying helps to introduce new ideas and reduce the likelihood of uninformed or damaging decisions by those in office. We propose a suite of reforms to reduce the risks of policy capture while still protecting the rights of all individuals and groups to contribute to policy discussions.



Start with transparency

Transparency isn’t a silver bullet, but it can play an important role in reducing the sway of special interests. Greater transparency means more opportunity for the public, media and the parliament itself to scrutinise the policy-making process and call out undue influence or give voice to under-represented views.

We recommend three key reforms to improve transparency.

  1. Improve the “visibility” of major donors to political parties

  2. Publish ministerial diaries so people know who ministers meet with

  3. Create a public register of lobbyists who have unescorted access to federal Parliament House. These reforms would substantially reduce the secrecy around money and access.

Transparency is not enough on its own – strong voices are still needed to call out problems, and voters still need to hold elected officials to account. But transparency gives them better information to do so.

Boost public trust in politicians

Trust in government is in decline: in a 2018 survey, 85% of Australians thought at least some federal MPs were corrupt. We recommend setting clear standards for all parliamentarians to avoid conflicts of interest – particularly around hospitality, gifts and secondary employment.

Codes of conduct for parliamentarians and lobbyists should be independently administered, to build public confidence that the high standards of public office are respected and adhered to. A separate ethics adviser could also encourage public officials to seek advice when they’re in doubt.

And a federal integrity or anti-corruption body should be established to deal with tips and complaints of serious misconduct. It should be empowered to investigate corruption risks, publish findings, and refer any corrupt activity to the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions.

The best defence against policy capture is healthy public debate

Greater transparency and accountability would help reduce the risk of policy capture by special interests. But ultimately Australia’s best defence is countervailing voices in policy debates. Who’s in the room matters – but who’s not in the room can matter even more.

Consumers, community groups and those less privileged are consistently under-represented in public debate. Our analysis of ministerial diaries in Queensland and NSW shows well-resourced special interests account for the bulk of senior ministers’ external meetings.

People who lack the resources or organisational capacity to band together can struggle to be heard – even when they represent a large chunk of Australian society – taxpayers, consumers, small business and young people, for example. Special interests are particularly likely to win out in technical, niche or complex policy areas because they are more difficult for other groups, voters and the media to engage with.

We suggest two reforms to reduce the influence of well-resourced special interests and promote broader participation in public debate:

First, a cap on political advertising expenditure during election campaigns would reduce the imbalance between groups with very different means to broadcast political views. It would reduce the reliance of political parties on major donors and might redirect communication to less-superficial channels that are conducive to deeper discussion, such as political debates and interviews.


Read more: Australians think our politicians are corrupt, but where is the evidence?


Second, government can boost countervailing voices through more inclusive policy review processes and advocacy for under-represented groups. This would give politicians better information with which to adjudicate the public interest.

The reforms proposed here are in line with OECD recommended practice. They would strengthen Australian democracy by enabling voters to better hold government to account and could boost the public’s confidence that the system is working for them.

– Influence in Australian politics needs an urgent overhaul – here’s how to do it
– http://theconversation.com/influence-in-australian-politics-needs-an-urgent-overhaul-heres-how-to-do-it-103535]]>

USTKE fights for Kanak rights in defiance of ‘dishonest’ referendum

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As New Caledonia’s November 4 referendum on independence approaches, both pro and anti-independence groups are ramping up their campaigns. But, as Michael Andrew reports, some groups are choosing not to participate, arguing that the referendum is “unfair and dishonest”.

For many Kanaks, the upcoming independence referendum is a chance to reclaim control of New Caledonia, or “Kanaky”, and establish a new independent nation in the Pacific.

For pro-independence labour organisation USTKE (Union of Kanak and Exploited Workers), however, the November 4 referendum is undemocratic and should be treated as a non-event.

On a visit to New Zealand this week, Leonard Wahmetu, general secretary of the mines and metals section of the USTKE, said his organisation and its political arm, the Labour Party, would not be participating in the referendum as it had been tailored to favour an outcome of remaining with France.

READ MORE: Lee Duffield’s Asia Pacific Report series on New Caledonia and the referendum

APJS NEWSFILE

Referring to the period preceding the 1988 Matignon accord – the first step in France’s promise of eventual sovereignty for the Kanaks – Wahmetu said that the demographics of Kanaky were significantly altered when the French government encouraged mass migration from mainland France, eroding the Kanak’s voting majority in subsequent referenda.

Although participation in the November 4 voting excludes anyone who came to live in the territory after 1998, Wahmetu argued that the referendum’s credibility had been comprised by those historical events.

-Partners-

“The vote is not sincere, it is not honest, it is not true,” he said.

Sylvain Goldstein of France’s CGT and Leonard Wahmetu of USTKE … New Caledonia’s referendum’s credibility has been compromised by recent historical events. Image: Del Abcede/PMC

Discrepancies in the roll
The referendum voting roll has also come under scrutiny, with the USTKE and other pro-independence parties claiming many Kanaks have not been included.

According to an RNZ Pacific report, pro-independence groups feel Kanaks should be automatically included on the roll, but the electoral law states that voters must register to cast a ballot.

Wahemtu argued that the vague and complex administrative process makes registration difficult for Kanaks, many of whom can’t access the documents to prove their eligibility.

According to Australian academic and journalist Dr Lee Duffield, a research associate of the Pacific Media Centre, this lack of familiarity with the Western democratic process may also be a reason why many Kanaks believe the referendum is stacked against them.

“French conservative parties and Caldoche interests are the most at home with persuasive negotiation, lobbying, campaigning and advertising. The Kanak system is more community based and not so at home with modern-day politicking,” he said.

However, he did stress that the French government had made access to the roll very open for Kanaks, citing an instance where a Kanak who had been living abroad for a long time was allowed to enrol.

Despite its stance of non-participation, the USTKE is staunchly pro-independence and has fought emphatically for Kanak workers’ rights since the early 1980s, when it was a key component of the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS).

1980s protest action
During that period, anti-colonial sentiment was high among Kanaks, mainly due to France’s harsh policies of military action and assassinations to repress the indépendentiste movement. Violent protest in response was not uncommon.

After the tragic 1988 massacre on Ouvéa Island where 19 FLNKS militants were killed after taking a group of gendarmes (district police) hostage, the French government was forced to seriously consider the Kanaks quest for independence and the negotiation of the Matignon Accord ensued. After having signed it with the FLNKS, the USTKE detached from the FLNKS in respect of the separation of trade unionism and politics.

It continued its campaigning for Kanak workers’ rights alongside the Confederation of Labour (CGT), the largest workers’ union in France.

While the CGT supports the indépendentiste movement, it respects the USTKE’s decision not to participate in the referendum.

CGT’s Asia Pacific director of the international department, Sylvain Goldstein, explained that regardless of the referendum, the aim of the USTKE was not to evict the French, but rather achieve a more inclusive and prosperous society.

“There is not a will to end relations with France, not at all. It’s more to rebalance the rights and consider everything that needs to be considered for a better situation and open up to Pacific neighbours,” Goldstein said.

For the USTKE, a better situation would also include fairer representation and employment for Kanaks, especially in the lucrative nickel mining industry.

Promises eroded
Despite the industry being one of the largest in the world, Kanaks are grossly under-represented; something that Leonard Wahmetu said went against promises laid out in the Matignon Accord.

“There was an agreement that a lot more Kanak people will be trained to have more responsibility. Now only 50 are involved in the mining because they give the training to the people from mainland France,” he said.

Yet even skills and expertise are often not enough to guarantee employment in an industry that Wahmetu claims, is rife with discrimination.

“Even if the young people are well trained they cannot find a job because they are Kanak,” he said.

Environmental protection is another key aim of the USTKE, which would see mining companies and other multinationals held to account for their impact on Kanaky’s natural resources.

According to Sylvain Goldstein, unauthorised expansion by mining companies can imperil the natural environment, leading to conflict with Kanak tribes who have a duty to protect the land.

Protester blockade
This has occurred most recently in the town of Kouaoua, where protesters have blockaded the SLN mining company in an effort to protect endemic oak trees. The mine has since been shut down, reports RNZ.

For Leonard Wahmetu, this kind of activism is exactly what’s needed to exact change in a system where the democratic processes are not fair or impartial.

While the USTKE and the Labour Party will still be working in the political arena for policy changes and fairer electoral rolls, he stresses the importance of strong action.

“Political pressure and protest go together. We can’t just talk in the office, we must protest out in the field,” he said.

“Without this we wouldn’t be heard.”

Michael Andrew is a student journalist on the Postgraduate Diploma in Communication Studies (Journalism) reporting on the Asia-Pacific Journalism course at AUT University.

New Caledonian trade union representatives visit Auckland University of Technology this week … pictured are (mid-rear) Leonard Wahmetu, general secretary of the mines and metals section of the USTKE union; Sylvain Goldstein (to his left), CGT Asia Pacific director of the international department of France’s CGT, and (far right) NZ’s First Union representative Robert Reid. Image: Del Abcede/PMC
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Scott Waide: Amid the PNG silence on military aid, calls go out for wide national consultation

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Lombrum naval base on Manus Island … a Google’s-eye view.

COMMENT: By Scott Waide

The global trade war between China and Western powers has reached new heights in the Pacific, and in particular in Papua New Guinea. As the government of Peter O’Neill courts China on the one side of the bargaining table, receiving, aid and other benefits, PNG’s traditional military partner, Australia, is growing anxious.

Australian media has reported that their government is planning to establish a military base on Manus Island to counter the growing Chinese influence in Papua New Guinea and the Pacific.

The PNG government has been largely silent since Australia’s announcement.

Last night, when I contacted the Defence Minister, Solan Mirisim, he said the Papua New Guinea has been in negotiations with Australia for “a military base and a training facility on Manus”.

The plans by Australian has brought about concerns.

A former PNG Defence Force Commander, Major-General Jerry Singirok, says any decision by the Australians to place troops in Papua New Guinea must have wide consultation as well as debate in Parliament.

-Partners-

So far there has been none.

Retired Major-General Jerry Singirok … “threat of being smothered or over run by a behemoth of an economic and military power are real.” Image: My Land, My Country

Sovereign nation
“Australia must be mindful that Papua New Guinea is a sovereign nation. There has to be wide public consultation as well as debate in parliament because this is a strategic decision.

“Australia has neglected this region for so long. This issue has to be approached with diplomacy.”

Australia’s choice of Manus is of strategic military importance. The maritime corridor between Guam to the north and Manus to the south was used by the Japanese in World War Two to reach the Pacific.

A possible Australian presence in Manus means they get to police the northern region. The move places Papua New Guinea in the centre of a global power struggle between the US and its allies and China.

For Papua New Guinea, things are a bit complicated. How does the government call China a threat and receive aid and development loans? And how does it support Australia’s military ambitions and still view China as a friend.

Another Former PNGDF Commander, feels Australia has to find a middle ground to deal with the trade war instead of placing military personnel in Papua New Guinea.

“China is not a threat,” says retired Commodore Peter Ilau, who also served as ambassador to Indonesia.

“We have to learn to work with China. We cannot respond with a show of military force,” he says.

Both former commanders agree that the threat of being smothered or over run by a behemoth of an economic and military power are real.

China’s economic influence in Papua New Guinea extends to nearly all sectors.

In the 13-year period between 2005 and 2018, China has spent close to 12 billion kina in investments and aid in Papua New Guinea. That is 3 billion kina short of Papua New Guinea’s annual budget of 15 billion.

Chinese money has been spent of monumental projects like buildings, transport infrastructure and energy projects in Papua New Guinea and the Pacific.

But what concerns many in Papua New Guinea is debt to China driven by loans and obligations and the possible take over of state assets by a foreign power.

Lombrum naval base on Manus Island following World War Two in 1949. Image: Australian War Memorial
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