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September 8, 2021
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Public Health measures are restrictive ‘health’ imposts by an authority over some or all of the people subject to that authority. In most cases they are both ‘merit goods’ (having benefits which people ought to be willing to pay for), and ‘public goods’ (goods whose benefits are shared). Quarantine may be ... <a title="Keith Rankin Essay – Quarantine, an effective temporary Public Health measure" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/09/08/keith-rankin-essay-quarantine-an-effective-temporary-public-health-measure/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Essay – Quarantine, an effective temporary Public Health measure">Read more</a>
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September 7, 2021
Analysis by Bryce Edwards. The tragic terrorist attack at an Auckland shopping mall on Friday has led to a lot of debate about how it could have been prevented. It turns out authorities were well aware of Ahamed Aathill Mohamed Samsudeen’s severe mental health problems and his capacity for violent extremism if not dealt with ... <a title="Bryce Edwards’ Political Roundup: Could government agencies have averted the development of a terrorist?" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/09/07/bryce-edwards-political-roundup-could-government-agencies-have-averted-the-development-of-a-terrorist/" aria-label="Read more about Bryce Edwards’ Political Roundup: Could government agencies have averted the development of a terrorist?">Read more</a>
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September 3, 2021
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Dynamic living processes get into feedback loops. The most common is a negative feedback loop, whereby processes self-regulate; when something happens then something else happens, in response, to offset the initial event. If it gets cold, we put on another layer of clothing. If a consumer good becomes scarce, its price ... <a title="Keith Rankin Essay – Pandemic Feedback" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/09/03/keith-rankin-essay-pandemic-feedback/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Essay – Pandemic Feedback">Read more</a>
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August 26, 2021
Analysis by Keith Rankin. The first chart shows the three largest western countries: United States, United Kingdom, and Germany. The solid line plots represent quarterly average rates of excess death. It is clear that the United Kingdom copped Covid19 very early and very hard. The mid-June peak represents the period from mid-March to mid-June. It is ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: Excess Deaths in New Zealand and Comparator Countries" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/08/26/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid19-excess-deaths-in-new-zealand-and-comparator-countries/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: Excess Deaths in New Zealand and Comparator Countries">Read more</a>
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August 20, 2021
Covid-Delta, Science, and the Problem of Known Unknowns – Analysis by Keith Rankin. It’s a known known that the late Donald Rumsfeld’s principal legacy to the world is the following quote: “As we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – the dangers of Delta, versus the dangers of reduced community immunity" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/08/20/keith-rankin-analysis-the-dangers-of-delta-versus-the-dangers-of-reduced-community-immunity/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – the dangers of Delta, versus the dangers of reduced community immunity">Read more</a>
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August 6, 2021
Analysis by Keith Rankin. The issues to watch out for now are the extent to which countries with high vaccination rates are (1) getting positive cases, and (2) getting Covid19 deaths. And one particular point to watch out for is the extent to which early vaccinator countries show signs of relapse, as immunity levels wane ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: Latest Covid19 Statistics, in the Northern Hemisphere Summer" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/08/06/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid19-latest-covid19-statistics-in-the-northern-hemisphere-summer/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: Latest Covid19 Statistics, in the Northern Hemisphere Summer">Read more</a>
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July 26, 2021
Analysis by Bryce Edwards. A consensus is emerging that the Government has generally managed the Covid crisis very well over the last 18 months, but they have dropped the ball when it comes to the crucial vaccine rollout. This was nicely encapsulated in opinion polling last week showing that while 69 per cent of the ... <a title="Bryce Edwards’ Political Roundup: “Year of the vaccine” at risk" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/07/26/bryce-edwards-political-roundup-year-of-the-vaccine-at-risk/" aria-label="Read more about Bryce Edwards’ Political Roundup: “Year of the vaccine” at risk">Read more</a>
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July 13, 2021
Analysis by Keith Rankin. We now have excess death data for most of western Europe, until the end of June 2021. The peaks are all due to Covid19. We can see clearly that the pandemic in Europe began simultaneously in Italy and Spain, and almost certainly in January 2020. While we are yet to even ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: West Europe at the onset of a New Wave of Cases" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/07/13/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid19-west-europe-at-the-onset-of-a-new-wave-of-cases/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: West Europe at the onset of a New Wave of Cases">Read more</a>
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July 9, 2021
Analysis by Keith Rankin. The latest excess mortality data shows all the countries of the British Isles, and the United States, have fewer excess deaths than New Zealand in the three months to the end of May 2021. England/Wales was looking particularly good in the three months to June. (Excess mortality data for the United ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: United Kingdom and Herd Immunity" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/07/09/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid19-united-kingdom-and-herd-immunity/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: United Kingdom and Herd Immunity">Read more</a>
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July 7, 2021
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Chile is our neighbour over the ditch; the ‘big ditch’, that is, the Pacific Ocean. And it’s a country with much in common with Aotearoa New Zealand. Until Covid19, Latam flew daily flights between Auckland and Santiago. Chile is regarded as the richest country in Latin America, and it certainly keeps ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Chile – Revolution?" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/07/07/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-chile-revolution/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Chile – Revolution?">Read more</a>
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July 2, 2021
Analysis by Keith Rankin. On 21 June 2021 I published this chart, showing high levels of excess deaths in Aotearoa, for all age groups. However, the source data provide a somewhat crude measure of excess deaths. The measure may be distorted by demographic changes; the rate of population growth, and changes to the age distribution ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Excess Deaths by Age Cohort, Adjusted" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/07/02/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-excess-deaths-by-age-cohort-adjusted/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Excess Deaths by Age Cohort, Adjusted">Read more</a>
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June 23, 2021
Analysis by Keith Rankin. The international source for these data calculates the percentage increase (decrease if negative) of deaths compared to ‘expected deaths’. There is a weakness in the data, in that ‘expected deaths’ is simply the average for 2015 to 2019. Thus, it does not account for rising populations in the various age cohorts. ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Excess Deaths by Age Cohort: New Zealand and comparator countries" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/06/23/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-excess-deaths-by-age-cohort-new-zealand-and-comparator-countries/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Excess Deaths by Age Cohort: New Zealand and comparator countries">Read more</a>
