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Economic Intelligence

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Keith Rankin Analysis – Intellectual Paralysis: Cost of Living, Inflation, and Interest Costs

August 31, 2025

Analysis by Keith Rankin. Public policy in New Zealand is paralysed by an unwavering mis-framing of the current economic stagnation. A key part of the problem is the popular attachment to the phrase ‘cost of living crisis’ as a catch-all for contemporary economic malaise. The first task towards clear thinking is to disentangle ‘cost of ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Intellectual Paralysis: Cost of Living, Inflation, and Interest Costs" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/08/31/keith-rankin-analysis-intellectual-paralysis-cost-of-living-inflation-and-interest-costs/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Intellectual Paralysis: Cost of Living, Inflation, and Interest Costs">Read more</a>

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Matt Robson: The Public’s  Kiwibank on the Auction Block

August 25, 2025

Article by Matt Robson, former Alliance Party and New Zealand Government Cabinet Minister. The Initial vote on Kiwibank in the Labour-Alliance government in 2000 was 16 Labour against to 4 Alliance for. I was there when this was reversed, and in 2001 the 4 insurgent Alliance Ministers – Jim Anderton, Sandra Lee, Laila Harre and ... <a title="Matt Robson: The Public’s  Kiwibank on the Auction Block" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/08/25/matt-robson-the-publics-kiwibank-on-the-auction-block/" aria-label="Read more about Matt Robson: The Public’s  Kiwibank on the Auction Block">Read more</a>

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Keith Rankin Analysis – Stimulate or Suffocate, in the light of Older Women’s Spending?

August 8, 2025

Analysis by Keith Rankin. In the wake of the recent release of labour force data (Household Labour Force Survey, HLFS, Nicola Willis bemoans ‘glass half empty’ view of unemployment figures, RNZ 6 August 2025), 1918-1920 National Party Leader Simon Bridges, has called for economic “stimulus” to rescue in particular the dire Auckland economy. (See Call ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Stimulate or Suffocate, in the light of Older Women’s Spending?" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/08/08/keith-rankin-analysis-stimulate-or-suffocate-in-the-light-of-older-womens-spending/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Stimulate or Suffocate, in the light of Older Women’s Spending?">Read more</a>

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Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Employment growth in New Zealand for retirement-age women

August 8, 2025

Analysis by Keith Rankin. The above chart shows – in red – the annual percentage increase (since 1988) in numbers employed of women aged 65-69, based on Household Labour Force Survey employment data. (And it shows, for comparison, males aged 30-34; in blue, their percentages are shown on the right-hand side of the chart. I ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Employment growth in New Zealand for retirement-age women" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/08/08/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-employment-growth-in-new-zealand-for-retirement-age-women/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Employment growth in New Zealand for retirement-age women">Read more</a>

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Keith Rankin Chart Analysis: Employment in New Zealand – especially of women – at the Age Margins

August 7, 2025

Analysis by Keith Rankin. Quarterly Labour market data in Aotearoa New Zealand was released today. Much of the data is functionally useless, because of definitions which disguise rather than reveal important trends and turning points. I have focussed on employment data (although the definition of ’employment’ is too generous to be optimally useful) relative to ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis: Employment in New Zealand – especially of women – at the Age Margins" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/08/07/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-employment-in-new-zealand-especially-of-women-at-the-age-margins/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis: Employment in New Zealand – especially of women – at the Age Margins">Read more</a>

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Keith Rankin Analysis – New Zealand’s highly favourable Terms of Trade

August 4, 2025

Analysis by Keith Rankin. The most important measure of the favourability or otherwise of the international economic environment is called a country’s ‘Terms of Trade’. This label essentially means ‘barter price’, reflecting that international trade is essentially one country’s barter with the rest of the world. (Digression. We note that such ‘barter’ is rarely the ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – New Zealand’s highly favourable Terms of Trade" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/08/04/keith-rankin-analysis-new-zealands-highly-favourable-terms-of-trade/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – New Zealand’s highly favourable Terms of Trade">Read more</a>

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Keith Rankin Analysis – How did New Zealand compare in the first half of the 2020s?

July 29, 2025

Analysis by Keith Rankin. The following two tables show New Zealand and the 24 other economies in the world most easily and fruitfully compared to New Zealand. The countries are sorted with the worst-performing economies (in terms of economic growth per capita) listed at the top. Thus, taking four-year compounded growth for 2020, 2021, 2022 ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – How did New Zealand compare in the first half of the 2020s?" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/07/29/keith-rankin-analysis-how-did-new-zealand-compare-in-the-first-half-of-the-2020s/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – How did New Zealand compare in the first half of the 2020s?">Read more</a>

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Keith Rankin Analysis – Public Debt, Japan, and Wilful Blindness

July 10, 2025

Analysis by Keith Rankin. I just heard on Radio New Zealand a claim by a British commentator, Hugo Gye (Political Editor of The i Paper), that the United Kingdom (among other countries) has a major public debt crisis, and that if nothing is done about it (such as what Rachel Reeves – Chancellor of the ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Public Debt, Japan, and Wilful Blindness" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/07/10/keith-rankin-analysis-public-debt-japan-and-wilful-blindness/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Public Debt, Japan, and Wilful Blindness">Read more</a>

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Keith Rankin Analysis – Equity Rights: UBI, SUI, BUI, HUI, or GUI?

June 6, 2025

Analysis by Keith Rankin. Capitalism is in crisis, and our species’ imagination to save ourselves is sorely lacking. There are of course understandings out there, and solutions; but they are so heavily gate-kept that conversations about saving ourselves are well-nigh impossible. It remains a puzzle why those political and intellectual leaders who would most benefit ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Equity Rights: UBI, SUI, BUI, HUI, or GUI?" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/06/06/keith-rankin-analysis-equity-rights-ubi-sui-bui-hui-or-gui/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Equity Rights: UBI, SUI, BUI, HUI, or GUI?">Read more</a>

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Keith Rankin Analysis – Zero-Sum Fiscal Narratives

May 22, 2025

Analysis by Keith Rankin. The central narrative of New Zealand’s Minister of Finance, Nicola Willis, is ‘There is only so much money to go around’. (For example, her interview on RNZ on 20 May, Willis on her second Budget, price of butter. The interview also covers, in the usual subservient way our media addresses these ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Zero-Sum Fiscal Narratives" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/05/22/keith-rankin-analysis-budget-2025-zero-sum-fiscal-narratives/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Zero-Sum Fiscal Narratives">Read more</a>

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Keith Rankin Analysis – The Aratere and the New Zealand Main Trunk Line

May 20, 2025

Analysis by Keith Rankin. Government-owned Kiwirail is supposed to be presiding over the New Zealand Main Trunk (Railway) Line, from Auckland to Invercargill. As such it runs a ferry service (The Interislander) between New Zealand’s North and South Islands. We are being told by Kiwirail (and see today’s report on Radio NZ) that the only ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – The Aratere and the New Zealand Main Trunk Line" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/05/20/keith-rankin-analysis-the-aratere-and-the-new-zealand-main-trunk-line/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – The Aratere and the New Zealand Main Trunk Line">Read more</a>

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Keith Rankin Analysis – Make Deficits Great Again: Maintaining a Pragmatic Balance

May 9, 2025

Analysis by Keith Rankin. Donald Trump is a mercantilist, as noted in Trump’s tariffs: Short-term damage or long-term ruin? ‘The Bottom Line’, Al Jazeera, 11 April 2025 (or here on YouTube). But the United States, in today’s world, is not a mercantilist country. Or at least not a successful mercantilist country, though it is inhabited ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Make Deficits Great Again: Maintaining a Pragmatic Balance" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/05/09/keith-rankin-analysis-make-deficits-great-again-maintaining-a-pragmatic-balance/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Make Deficits Great Again: Maintaining a Pragmatic Balance">Read more</a>