CoveragePost
April 10, 2025
Essay by Keith Rankin. ‘Rational Expectations’ is a problematic theory in economics. Here I want to focus more away from economics; and more on the meanings of ‘rationality’ in decision-making, than on the problematic ambiguity of the word ‘expect’ (and its derivatives such as ‘expectations’). ‘Expectation’ here means what we believe ‘will’ happen, not ‘should’ ... <a title="Keith Rankin Essay – Rational Expectations, Intelligence, and War" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/04/10/keith-rankin-essay-rational-expectations-intelligence-and-war/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Essay – Rational Expectations, Intelligence, and War">Read more</a>
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August 22, 2024
Opinion by Hon. Matt Robson, former Alliance Party Cabinet Minister and Associate Minister of Foreign Affairs. In 2000, the Initial vote on Kiwibank in the Labour-Alliance government was 16 votes against from Labour, and four votes in favour from the Alliance. I was there when this was reversed, and in 2001 the four insurgent Alliance ... <a title="Opinion: The New Zealand Public’s KiwiBank On The Auction Block" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/08/22/opinion-the-new-zealand-publics-kiwibank-on-the-auction-block/" aria-label="Read more about Opinion: The New Zealand Public’s KiwiBank On The Auction Block">Read more</a>
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August 14, 2024
Department of Mum and Dad Analysis by Keith Rankin. On 12 August, the national-led government announced a new policy program to impose more sanctions on New Zealand’s beneficiaries, meaning people of working age (18-64) whose primary income is a government benefit. (Refer RNZ Government further increases sanctions for beneficiaries, 12 August 2024.) This policy direction ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Department of Mum and Dad, in the context of a more restrictive welfare state" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/08/14/keith-rankin-analysis-department-of-mum-and-dad-in-the-context-of-a-more-restrictive-welfare-state/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Department of Mum and Dad, in the context of a more restrictive welfare state">Read more</a>
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July 31, 2024
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Today is ‘tax cut day’. The present round of income tax cuts has been controversial, despite the fact that they are not ‘real’ tax cuts, only bracket adjustments which partially compensate for CPI inflation this decade. (Here is an interview today with University of Auckland economist Susan St John, which suggests ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Tax Cuts: 1982 and 2024" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/07/31/keith-rankin-analysis-tax-cuts-1982-and-2024/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Tax Cuts: 1982 and 2024">Read more</a>
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July 31, 2024
Analysis by Keith Rankin. The above chart shows CPI inflation in New Zealand in historical context. The chart shows (in orange) the present policy target band of one to three percent annual inflation. And it shows the ‘home-ownership’ component of the CPI. The chart looks different to most charts of CPI inflation, because it uses ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – New Zealand’s Consumers Price Index: CPI Inflation past and present" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/07/31/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-new-zealands-consumers-price-index-cpi-inflation-past-and-present/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – New Zealand’s Consumers Price Index: CPI Inflation past and present">Read more</a>
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July 22, 2024
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Interest Rates and Increasing Prices: The Facts The first chart above challenges the received view that inflation in New Zealand remains stubbornly high, and that it is therefore appropriate for the Reserve Bank’s official cash rate (OCR) to be held for at least a few more months at its damagingly high ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – The Truth in New Zealand about Price Inflation and Interest Rates" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/07/22/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-the-truth-in-new-zealand-about-price-inflation-and-interest-rates/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – The Truth in New Zealand about Price Inflation and Interest Rates">Read more</a>
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June 24, 2024
Post-pandemic economics and the rise of national populism - Wherever we look today, whether it be through a political, economic, or security lens, we can see the consequences of post-pandemic economic instability. And politically, the rise of national populism is in evidence, as is an apparent anti-incumbent mood among voters.
In this podcast, Paul G Buchanan and Selwyn Manning assess the global Zeitgeist and what impact post-pandemic economics is having on geopolitics and geo-economics.
CoveragePost
March 25, 2024
Opinion by Keith Rankin. Do we need real income-tax cuts this year? Probably not. Do we need nominal income-tax cuts? Yes, we do. The government should go ahead with its proposed tax cuts, but only to low and middle income earners. The tax cuts should compensate for the inflationary component of the cost of living ... <a title="Keith Rankin Opinion – Tax Cuts?" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/03/25/keith-rankin-opinion-tax-cuts/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Opinion – Tax Cuts?">Read more</a>
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March 21, 2024
Analysis by Keith Rankin. In this article, I will simply present the numbers for the key performance indicators (taken from tradingeconomics.com). And then I’ll give an update on GDP (gross domestic product) data, given today’s data release from Statistics New Zealand, and with the definition of ‘recession’ in mind. An important part of the context ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Economic Performance: New Zealand versus Japan" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/03/21/keith-rankin-analysis-economic-performance-new-zealand-versus-japan/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Economic Performance: New Zealand versus Japan">Read more</a>
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March 20, 2024
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Recessions in the last Ten Years: New Zealand and Japan Tomorrow we will see the latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for New Zealand. It’s worth looking today, however, at what the situation is before that data release (with its revisions as well as new data). And in context by comparing ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – New Zealand in Recession" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/03/20/keith-rankin-analysis-new-zealand-in-recession/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – New Zealand in Recession">Read more</a>
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December 22, 2023
Analysis by Keith Rankin. When countries’ national elections are closely fought, it means that the median voters critically determine the parliamentary or congressional outcome. But, though depending to a considerable extent on the prevailing political culture, the centre-of-gravity of the resulting government may be far from that median usually ‘centrist’ position of the voters. The ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Political Culture and Close Elections" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2023/12/22/keith-rankin-analysis-political-culture-and-close-elections/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Political Culture and Close Elections">Read more</a>
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November 28, 2023
Analysis by Keith Rankin. The new government is making a weak start to its tenure. On Morning Report (RNZ, 28 Nov 2023, Prime Minister Luxon to lead first cabinet meeting), Mr Luxon repeated a comment such as he has made several times before: “The number one job is to rebuild the economy so we can ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Government by Cliché" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2023/11/28/keith-rankin-analysis-government-by-cliche/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Government by Cliché">Read more</a>
