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Dr Paul Buchanan’s Analytic Brief: Fiji’s strategic pivot

36th-Parallel.com Analysis by Dr Paul Buchanan. [caption id="attachment_68667" align="alignleft" width="300"]russia-stands-by-fiji_300x200 Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meets with Fijian Prime Minister Voreque “Frank” Bainimarama. Source: Fiji Ministry of Foreign Affairs.[/caption] Last week Fiji took delivery of a shipment of Russian weapons that were “donated” by Russia pursuant to a bilateral Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed in February 2015. The Fijians say that the weapons are needed by Fijian peacekeepers in places like the Middle East because what they currently have in their inventory are obsolete. The shipment includes small arms (squad) weapons, two trucks, tear gas, other non-lethal munitions and possibly a helicopter. The shipment will formally be unveiled in February in front of a Russian delegation that will include military trainers who will remain in Fiji to instruct Fijian Defence Force personnel in their proper usage. Fijian opposition figures believe that the shipment is illegal because it was not approved by Parliament and that it could be used against domestic opponents of the current, military-backed government. Let me briefly outline the issues. The shipment is perfectly legal as it is not part of a Treaty that needs parliamentary ratification. Plus, it is a “donation” of military aid so it does not need parliamentary approval. It is not clear that the formal unveiling will reveal all of the weapons delivered. It is quite possible that some or most of the shipment will be concealed. The opposition is correct to be concerned about the”dual use” potential of the weapons. Squad weapons, tear gas and non-lethal munitions can be used in peacekeeping but can also be used as instruments of crowd control at home. Given the Fijian Defence Forces history, that is a very real possibility. The arms shipment could trigger an arms race with Tonga, which also has a military and is a rival of Fiji. The Tongans are not likely to view the shipment kindly even if it does not specifically include naval equipment. Squad weapons can and are used by navies as a matter of routine. Although Fijian military inventories may well be obsolete, most UN peacekeeping missions are armed by the UN using NATO-standard equipment. That includes small arms and troop carriers used in “blue helmet” operations. Thus the claim that the Russian arms are needed for peacekeeping is debatable at best. The MOU with Russia also outlines military educational exchanges. These follow on a similar program with the Chinese military (PLA). The Chinese also have funded and undertaken numerous infrastructure projects such as port dredging and road building that have a parallel “dual use” potential: they can be used for civilian and military purposes alike. For the full analysis, go to: See 36th-Parallel.com for more Asia-Pacific analysis.

36th Parallel Assessments is a non-partisan, non-governmental geopolitical risk and strategic analysis consultancy. Located in Auckland, New Zealand, 36th Parallel Assessments offers tiered political risk, market intelligence and strategic forecasting services. It combines open source intelligence and trend analysis, qualitative subject studies and targeted research on matters of economic, political and social import from a South Pacific perspective. In doing so 36th Parallel Assessments serves as a window on national and regional trends, including the activities of extra-regional powers and actors in the Trans-Pacific context.

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Bryce Edwards’ Political Roundup: Catching up with the Greens

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Political Roundup by Dr Bryce Edwards.

[caption id="attachment_4808" align="alignleft" width="150"]Dr Bryce Edwards. Dr Bryce Edwards.[/caption]

At the beginning of a new political year, New Zealand’s third largest political party stands at a strategic crossroads. Does the Green Party strengthen and perhaps formalise its relationship with Labour, or will it choose to be more independent?

Metiria Turei’s State of the Nation speech on Tuesday embodied the tension often found in a party that simultaneously wishes to challenge orthodox thinking but has a strong desire to find acceptance and legitimacy within the political orthodoxy. This ambivalence about whether to be radical or not might well come to characterise 2016 for the Greens – a theme often raised in the following 17 items about the Greens from the summer period.

1) The Greens are attempting to move the political goalposts at the same time as they advocate for a policy initiative designed to demonstrate how conventionally responsible they are – see Isaac Davison’s coverage of Metiria Turei’s state of the nation speech: National the radical party not the Green Party, says Metiria Turei.

2) Isaac Davison also writes about the Greens’ advocacy of a Policy Costings Unit to evaluate political party policies, saying Metiria Turei chooses perfect issue to kick off the year. He notes that “The party specifically invited business leaders, bankers and PR representatives to hear her address, reinforcing the Greens’ attempts to appear more orthodox”. He argues that the Political Costings Unit proposal “gives the Green Party an opportunity to preach to other parties about their lack of standards and the need for responsibility in making election promises. It also shows that they want to be constructive and credible about their own policies.” 

Davison also picked up on Turei’s reference to former Labour Prime Minister Michael Joseph Savage, saying that by “stealing one of the Labour Party’s poster children…She was making it clear that the Greens still see a strong role for themselves on welfare and poverty, and will not simply focus on the environment as Labour wants them to.”

3) The Policy Costings Unit idea has received widespread praise. Today’s Dominion Post editorial says the proposal “is a good one, and the Government should take it up” – see: Independent policy-costing agency an idea with merit. It explains that “it is surely one more part of the Greens’ drive to ditch their Morris-dancing image and appear economically credible.”

4) Green-friendly blogger No Right Turn explains Turei’s defence of “the Greens’ nature as a radical party, while also trying to claim they’re Not very radical”. He thinks their proposed Policy Costings Unit is a good idea, but that locating it within Treasury is not: “While they’d firewall it against Ministerial interference, I don’t think such firewalls could be trusted, and in addition Treasury is a deeply politicised department and cannot possibly be considered ‘independent’. It would be far better if such analysis was done by a truly independent agency – and the best way to get that would if the unit was an Office of Parliament.”

5) National Party blogger David Farrar believes it is An excellent initiative from the Greens, and he says he is “staggered National has rejected this proposal.” Farrar also disagrees with having the unit within Treasury. But for him it’s because it “may open the Treasury up to (even more) partisan attacks if a party doesn’t like the costing.”

6) National’s opposition to the Greens’ policy is not surprising for Stacey Kirk, who notes that “For them to do so would be to give up a significant advantage, which seems unlikely.” Her item Greens throw out reasonable policy in speech to rebut ‘radical’ claims is a closer examination of the Policy Costings Unit proposal, looking at current provisions and international precedents. Kirk is in favour of the idea though she believes it is something that will fly under the radar of most voters.

7) Not everyone shares the enthusiasm for the proposal. Leftwing blogger Stephanie Rodgers has voiced some doubts about it in her post, Metiria Turei’s state of the nation. She says, “I worry about the framing. Does this mean accepting that cost and ‘fiscal responsibility’ are the most important measures of policy?”

8) For the NBR’s Rob Hosking, the Greens’ advocacy of Treasury as the source of policy umpiring is very deliberate – see his paywalled column, Politics: the Greens get cheeky, Winston takes another ride on his Ghost Train of horrors. He argues that Treasury was chosen “because the party wants to send the message it is ready for government. How better than to say the Treasury are good guys and the Greens want to work with them?” He also reports that “It has already upset a few left-wing activists who feel the Green Party is edging toward some sort of blue-green central ground in politics. This group was not keen on James Shaw becoming co-leader, which is no doubt why Ms Turei, more in tune with the party’s left wing, rather than Mr Shaw who delivered the speech.”

9) Will 2016 be the year that the Greens formalise their relationship with Labour? Yes, according to three experts making their predictions for 2016 in The Spinoff Jury of 24 Experts Pick Next Year’s Big Issue. Toby Manhire foresees “A Labour-Green deal” this year. For Claire Robinson “They have to form a coalition by mid next year if they are to get into power in 2017. Irrespective of new policies, it is the one thing they could both do that will guarantee their return to government.” And Chris Trotter predicts “The formal announcement, at Labour’s centenary annual conference, of a firm commitment by Labour and the Greens to campaign together for the 2017 General Election as a coalition-government-in-waiting.”

10) Chris Trotter expands on a Labour-Greens deal in his column Third Term Temptations. He wonders whether Andrew Little’s hand will be forced by the threat of National repeating its “ship of fools” characterisation of the sometimes fractious relationship between Labour and the Greens: “does he really have any other option except to follow Clark’s 1998 example and announce Labour’s readiness to form a coalition government with the Greens in 2017?”

11) In December, Rodney Hide had an interesting opinion piece that argued James Shaw’s orientation to the Paris climate change talks was extremely revealing – see his paywalled NBR column, Sure, James Shaw, is man of the future. Reflecting on Shaw’s positivity about the Paris declaration, Hide says: “He is a different Green leader from those we have been used to. He’s content with fluff, never mind the substance. The politics of perception works for him. He’s been trained to this. Before politics he worked as a ‘management consultant’ developing ‘sustainable business practices”. The stuff and nonsense of Paris would be nothing new to him. The important thing is not to do good but to appear to do good.” Hide concludes that all of this makes Shaw “a man John Key can do business with”.

12) So rather than on being on the cusp of a formal deal with Labour, is new leader James Shaw in fact taking the Greens ever closer to a position where they could work with National? Deliberate or not, the flexibility of Shaw’s approach is a strategy endorsed by communications specialist Pete Burdon in his blog post, James Shaw media communicator of 2015. He says Shaw is very strict in commentating only on environmental issues, and because of that he “comes across as more of a centrist and credible politician who would favour any party that had the most compatible environmental policies.”

13) A shift away from Labour is also predicted by Stacey Kirk in her column, Introspective Greens smiling at each other, frowning at Winston. She says “Turei and Shaw will look to set their party a fraction further apart from Labour than it was at the last election” and “while the two parties’ policies dovetailed so neatly ahead of last year’s election, the Greens are likely to take a half a step away from Labour”.

14) Could Metiria Turei step down as Green co-leader? Towards the end of the 2015 reports started to mention speculation over whether Turei would remain as co-leader. In his paywalled NBR column, Change, consensus, and identity: the conservative tilt to politics Rob Hosking wrote: “One of the more intriguing questions for next year is whether Ms Turei, whose approach is still bound up with the preoccupations of student politics, stays or whether a co-leader more focused on other issues – finance spokeswoman Julie Ann Genter or, as an intriguing outsider, fiery newcomer Marama Davidson, takes over.” Tracy Watkins also refers to such rumours, and suggests that as a result, Turei has become a bit more “bolshie” – see: Politicians in search of goodwill to end the year

15) Rodney Hide has recently taken to poking fun at James Shaw. In his paywalled NBR column, Cheap oil compounds Greens’ conundrum he takes Shaw to task for using the current low cost of oil to argue for its abandonment: “He is the best of fun but, sadly, too often his best gems disappear into the internet unreported.  I fear you missed his delightful 14 January press release headed, ‘Cheap oil gives the opportunity to start exiting from it.’  That’s right. Oil’s cheap. So now’s the time to swap it for more expensive alternatives. Genius. That’s the power of corporate green speak. Complete bollocks can be headlined by a political leader and go completely unremarked.”

16) But Hide isn’t entirely negative about Shaw, and says that the “election of Shaw will prove a tipping point but one we never noticed”, because due to him, the “next government will be a National-Green one with Peters sidelined and furious” – see: Things will change…but stay the same. He says: “Under Shaw’s leadership, the Greens are quietly repositioning. They joined National in hailing the climate change agreement concluded in Paris.  In that one moment they were no longer outsiders throwing rocks at those inside. They were responsible, stately and showing an ability to compromise and work with others.  It makes sense. The Greens need leverage to achieve policy. They have none if their only option is Labour. They need to sidle quietly up to National. And they are.”

17) Finally, are the Greens having further problems with their homeopathy-friendly MP Steffan Browning? One scientist is complaining that Browning has pushed the party to adopt a policy and campaign against glyphosate based herbicides, which may not be based on a scientific approach – see Grant Jacobs’ blog post, NZ Green Party pesticide policy not evidence based but one-sided opinion piece

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NewsRoom Digest: Top NZ News Items for January 29 Edition, 2016

Newsroom Digest

Today’s edition of NewsRoom_Digest features 7 resourceful links of the day and the politics pulse from Friday 29th January. It is best viewed on a desktop screen.

NEWSROOM_MONITOR

Noteworthy stories in the current news cycle include the Government having the numbers needed to pass any enabling legislation to ratify the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Inland Revenue saying it is cracking down on a ‘black economy’ that involves tradespeople being paid under the table, and the first intake of Syrian refugees arriving under New Zealand’s increased quota being welcomed in Auckland.

POLITICS PULSE

Media releases issued from Parliament by political parties today 

included:

Government: Michael Woodhouse – Speech to welcome January intake of refugees; Annual building consents top 27,000; $15.6m redevelopment for Tarawera High; Major school broadband project completed

Greens: Implicit police threat appalling; NZ can lead the way with organic milk – but the Govt needs to step up; Climate change should be a factor in coal mine consenting process; Green Party Welcomes New Head Of Sustainable Business Council

Labour: Bob Tizard’s passing an end of an era; National must listen to Maori TPPA concerns; Arms Control a priority for the Pacific; Labour Mourns Bob Tizard

New Zealand First: Bob Tizard; Mt Cook Station – Buy It And Unlock The Park; With Friends Like The Us And Europe, Who Needs Competitors?; ‘Put Iwi First’ Minister’s Advisor Tells Failing Charter School

NZ National Party: Schools in Maungakiekie future-proofed with faster broadband

LINKS OF THE DAY

ANIMAL WELFARE: With the current El Niño weather pattern bringing heatwave conditions to many parts of the country, it’s important to ensure cows avoid heat stress and closely monitor cow health. For more information visithttp://www.dairynz.co.nz/heatstress

DWELLING CONSENTS RISE: Building consents for new dwellings continued to increase in 2015, although not as strongly as in the previous three years, Statistics New Zealand said today.Read more:http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/industry_sectors/Construction/BuildingConsentsIssued_HOTPDec15.aspx

GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS: The WTO has released new statistical profiles on global value chains (GVCs) for 61 economies. These profiles, available on the WTO website, bring together a set of indicators on trade taking place within GVCs.Click here for the statistics: 

https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/miwi_e/countryprofiles_e.htm

GLOBAL SALARY SURVEY 2016: The balance of power in the New Zealand work force is predicted to tip in favour of employees according to the findings of a survey by leading specialist recruitment firm Robert Walters. Click here for a copy: https://www.robertwalters.com.hk/salarysurvey.html

HOUSE PRICES IN AUCKLAND: The Reserve Bank today published a Bulletin article, ‘New Zealand house prices: a historical perspective’ that provides historical context to the current divergence between house price inflation in Auckland and the rest of New Zealand. Read more:http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research_and_publications/reserve_bank_bulletin/2016/

MENTAL HEALTH: Trialling whether data from a wearable sports monitor could predict a patients’ decline and assessing a new crisis mental health service were two of the research projects tackled by this year’s University of Otago, Christchurch’s Summer Students. Following is information about four of the projects. A full list can be found at: 

http://www.otago.ac.nz/christchurch/research/researchoffice/studentships/otago112078.html

WINE INDUSTRY: The New Zealand wine industry continues to show sound financial metrics in 2015 on the back of profitability in all but the smallest wineries and stable or increased gross margins across the board, according to the tenth annual financial benchmarking survey released today by Deloitte. To read or download the full Vintage 2015 report, go to http://www.deloitte.com/nz/wine

And that’s our sampling of “news you can use” for Friday 29th January.

Brought to EveningReport by Newsroom Digest.

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Asia Pacific Report – a new venture for independent journalism

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Report by David Robie. This article was first published on Café Pacific Alistar Kata’s video on the Pacific Media Centre. By David Robie Comments from the AsiaPacificReport.nz and video launch in Auckland tonight. [caption id="attachment_8770" align="alignleft" width="300"]Pacific Media Centre director Professor David Robie, Pacific Cooperation Foundation CEO Laulu Mac Leauanae and Multimedia Investments CEO and Evening Report editor Selwyn Manning at the launch of AsiaPacificReport.nz. Image: Del Abcede/PMC Pacific Media Centre director Professor David Robie, Pacific Cooperation Foundation CEO Laulu Mac Leauanae and Multimedia Investments CEO and Evening Report editor Selwyn Manning at the launch of AsiaPacificReport.nz. Image: Del Abcede/PMC[/caption] OUR new adventure really began back in 2007 when Selwyn Manning joined the Pacific Media Centre as the founding advisory board chair, but really took a big leap forward when he initiated the Pacific Scoop concept and we developed that together, launching it at the 2009 Māori Expo. Over the next six years, Pacific Scoop played an inspiring role in independent journalism alongside the main Scoop Media website, providing a range of Asia and Pacific stories and analyses. A significant core of this project was its role as the official output from AUT’s postgraduate Asia Pacific Journalism course. We have sent students all over the Pacific on key story and research assignments over the years. Some of these stories have won awards. While at AUT, Selwyn did two innovative postgraduate honours degrees – producing ground-breaking documentaries for both, Morality of Argument and Behind the Shroud, which are featured on AsiaPacificReport. But after Selwyn branched out and got his own Multimedia Investments operation and Evening Report and many other innovative websites off the ground, it became apparent that we needed something more than what we were able to offer with Pacific Scoop. This coincided with the opportunity to team up again with Selwyn with the AsiaPacificReport project, which is a quantum leap forward for us, designed for interactive platforms, with a strong emphasis on multimedia capacities and a wider range of independent journalism. Once again, AsiaPacificReport will be the outlet for our Asia Pacific Journalism course, but this will also be supplemented by journalism from independents and analysis from academics and issue-based reports. Make no mistake, this website is about creating another public space for  “no-froth” journalism and examining the real Asia-Pacific issues of the day from a New Zealand perspective. Just take today, for example: The lead story at the moment is one about political harassment by security forces of protesters in East Timor, or Timor-Leste, this week over a peaceful demonstration about impunity for the crimes committed under Indonesian rule for a quarter century. President Jokowi of Indonesia was making his first official visit to Timor-Leste and the government and police wanted to keep dissent under wraps. It is no surprise nothing was published about this in the NZ media, that I am aware of. Another story today, thanks to our collaboration with the Vanuatu Daily Post, tells of a successful MP provisionally elected to Parliament in the snap election last Friday. He is going to pay 100 percent of his salary to local chiefs in North Ambae to boost local development projects. In the NZ media? No way. Another story is about religious issues on Indonesia’s so-called “|Island of Intolerance”. In the local media. Once again, no way. Our first graduate to have a story published in AsiaPacificReport is Michael Neilson, currently in Jakarta with the Sydney Morning Herald bureau. This was his first internship story, about Aceh citizens taking legal action to protect the orangutan and the Sumatran jungle. In a nutshell, some of the objectives of the website are:

  • An independent Asia-Pacific voice telling the “untold” stories
  • An educational media resource boosting the quality of regional reporting
  • Addressing issues of equity and justice
  • Providing Asia-Pacific journalism internships as a professional development opportunity
Do delve into this website on your phones, tablets or wherever. Already there is about three months of in-depth content available and some archives. Many thanks to Pacific Cooperation Foundation chief executive Laulu Mac Leauanae who did us the honour of launching the website. Many thanks to all the people, who have helped, especially Selwyn and his team, David Yetton and his team who worked tirelessly for the launch, Tony Murrow of Little Island Press who developed our umbrella Pacific Media Centre and Pacific Journalism Review websites, and we hope to be working together on an exciting climate change project in the near future. And also Del Abcede who tirelessly works for this centre as a volunteer and makes sure the place is ticking along. A final bouquet is for the short doco by Alistar Kata, who just joined Tagata Pasifika this week. She produced The PMC Project, a compelling insight into the work of the Pacific Media Centre team. –]]>

Kelsey accuses PM Key of ‘orchestrated move’ to make TPPA debate a security issue

New Zealand Police

In a statement issued Thursday evening, law professor and TPP expert Jane Kelsey has accused the Prime Minister of orchestrating a move by Police and security agencies to stile public debate and opposition to the Trans Pacific Partnership.

The statement titled ‘Desperate Key govt trying to redefine TPPA as law and order issue’ also suggests that the Prime Minister is attempting to swing public opinion in his government’s favour.

The statement reads:

‘News that police have been visiting opponents of the TPPA ahead of next week’s signing is the latest step in an orchestrated move by the Prime Minister to try to redefine the signing of the hugely unpopular Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) as a law and order issue’, said long-time TPPA critic Professor Jane Kelsey.

‘Presumably the National Party’s polling shows they can claw back some of their support base if they can demonise the opposition to the TPPA and divert attention from the substantive issues of affordable medicines, privileged rights for foreign investors, democracy and sovereignty.’

Professor Kelsey observed the parallels to Muldoon’s strategy during the 1981 Springbok tour. ‘The choice of Sky City as the venue was the first step. Then the media ran a conveniently planted story that police were doing riot training using the TPPA signing as their scenario. Now we have police visits to people labelled as anti-TPPA activists. By the time of the signing, National will hope the law and order threat is firmly implanted in people’s minds, even if nothing happens.’

‘I wouldn’t be surprised if government claims it has to relocate the signing somewhere more secure because of the threat to visiting ministers – I’ve already heard rumours of an alternative venue that may actually be the government’s preferred option,’ Kelsey said. 

‘Clearly, the government has been damaged by the fact that tens of thousands of ordinary Kiwis have turned out across the country to protest against the secretive negotiations. Instead of responding to citizens’ concerns through a democratic process, the government has resorted to a classic and not very sophisticated law and order beat up that aims to intimidate and further suppress democratic dissent.’

Professor Kelsey predicts that, ‘just as the previous insults haven’t worked, this won’t work either’.

The statement followed news reports that Police had begun visiting activists and opponents of the TPPA. Fairfax’s Stuff website reported:

Scout Barbour Evans was visited by two police officers on Thursday morning, “asking me what I’ll be doing for the TPPA events”.

The officers said they were following a national directive and were “visiting all known activists in the country”.

Green Party Co-leader Metiria Turei said in the Fairfax report:

“Having police show up at your door to ask you what you plan on doing is chilling and the police know that” said Turei.

“It carries with it an implicit threat and New Zealanders have the right to speak out and have their voices heard. Being an activist isn’t a crime, being an activist is being passionate about something and last time I checked that wasn’t illegal.”

Commenting to the New Zealand Herald, Civil liberties lawyer Michael Bott said:

The police action would have a “chilling” effect on freedom of expression and the right to protest.

“These people haven’t committed any crime and yet the police are going to conduct a search or an interview, and there are legal concerns with that.”

Also commenting in the Herald, Labour Party police spokesman Stuart Nash said Police door-knocking is:

“Not the way we do things in this country”.

“My initial reaction is that it is a little heavy-handed. The protesters have a legal right to protest within the bounds of the law.

“During every single TPP rally, I can’t recall any instances where protesters have been violent or aggressive.

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Tony Alexander’s Weekly Economic Overview January 28 2016

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Economic Analysis by BNZ chief economist Tony Alexander.

Thursday January 28th 2016

[caption id="attachment_3709" align="alignleft" width="150"]Tony Alexander, BNZ economist. Tony Alexander, BNZ economist.[/caption] The Reserve Bank left the cash rate at 2.5% this morning which surprised no-one. But they did open the door a bit more to cutting further, so although our view remains that they won’t move again, one cannot rule out a 0.25% reduction in March. A lot depends on what happens overseas as domestically our economy has a lot of strength. China remains concerning and weakness there is one reason for still easing international dairy prices and reduced confidence that they will rebound. That loss of confidence lies behind Fonterra’s decision to cut their projected payout from $4.60 to $4.15 which will mean about $800mn less to their suppliers. This week in the housing section I take a quick look again at reasons why Auckland house prices are high and why they will stay high, plus illustrate why cutting migration inflows is not a realistic option for curtailing Auckland’s population growth which is running at twice the average for the rest of NZ. I finish with a look at China, specifically the change in expectations of the rural-urban drift from 5-15 million a year to in fact going into reverse! It looks like analysts on the ground forgot to allow for many “rural” people not in fact still being on farms but having already relocated to “county towns”. The overhang of apartments built in the big cities therefore is a lot more entrenched than previously thought. Hence new worries about debt of developers, regional governments, banks etc. as well as personal wealth held in many (not all) city locations.

For the full analysis, click on the link (Download document pdf 273kb) or continue reading below.

No Rate Change No Surprise The Reserve Bank this morning undertook their regular review of the official cash rate and surprised noone with their decision to leave it unchanged at the 2.5% level it was taken down to early in December. The rate peaked at 3.5% in July 2014 having been lifted from 2.5% in March. The subsequent 1% reduction last year came about partly because the pace of economic growth turned out to be less than they were expecting, but mainly because the rate of inflation has consistently undershot their expectations. For instance, in the Monetary Policy Statement of March 2014 the Reserve Bank predicted that inflation for calendar 2014 would be 1.9% and for 2015 it would be 2.1%. The actual rate for 2014 was only 0.8%. In March 2015 their forecast for 2015 inflation had been slashed to only 0.4%. As we learnt last week the actual outcome was just 0.1%. That is a full 2% lower than the March 2014 forecast. As previously discussed here, post-GFC the links between growth and inflation have been shattered in many ways, along with growth forecasts themselves almost always being too high. Growth is not quite leading to the sort of jobs growth which would have happened pre-GFC. More importantly, jobs growth is not leading to wages growth which would have happened pre-GFC. Wages growth is also not leading to inflation as would previously have happened and a key reason for that is that businesses can no longer easily put their prices up to recoup wage costs. The cost to consumers of searching for alternative, cheaper, goods and services has been slashed by technology changes and retailer margins have been squeezed – which partly explains why so many chains are going under. In addition energy prices have tumbled courtesy of surging oil supply and demand not growing as previously expected. Will this all change in the very near future and inflation suddenly jump back up again? That does not seem likely and that is a key reason why although we see good NZ growth the next two years of 2.4% each year, we don’t think the Reserve Bank will raise interest rates for a potentially long time. But will they cut them? The markets have priced in a cut as early as March and this cannot be ruled out. But we feel the Reserve Bank will be wary of stimulating the housing market too much, core inflation measures are not as low as the 0.1% headline rate, and it is good to have a 2.5% buffer in case the world economy tips over anew. Still, as noted here now for six years, forecasts of interest rates have proven consistently wrong for a long time now. So try to spread your risk by taking a mix of floating and fixed rates. These two graphs show the good and the bad for borrowers and savers respectively. Housing The annual Demographia Report was issued this week and unsurprisingly it showed Auckland as one of the least affordable cities in the world to live in based upon a comparison of average house prices with average incomes. The usual hand-wringing has occurred, young home buyers have been interviewed, and politicians have either said they are doing something about it, or criticised other politicians for not doing something about it. Enjoy reading all such material if you like, but don’t forget the fundamentals contributing to the issue which will not change for decades. Probably not ever.
  • Low interest rates making it cheaper to service larger mortgages to buy initially larger houses, then after a few years the same house as you would have bought when interest rates were higher. We discount lower interest rates into prices we are willing to pay. Current debt servicing costs nationwide at 9.3% of disposable household income are in fact below the quarter century average of 9.5%.
  • Lack of readily buildable land in Auckland either because it is too far away and there is not enough money for a fast transit transport system, or people holding the land see best value long-term in holding it rather than developing it, or because it is flooded – by two large harbours.
  • High construction costs in New Zealand as most houses are one-offs and not cookie-cutter properties which we snobbishly turn our noses up at.
  • Rapid population growth in Auckland as people seek to live and work in a large agglomeration delivering high interaction with other people rather than staying in the tourism and farming-focussed regions even if working remotely is a possibility. Auckland’s population grew 2.8% in the year to June 2015 and by 14.3% from 2006. Rates for the rest of New Zealand were 1.4% and 7.6% respectively. People are voting with their feet on where they want to be and it isn’t in the regions for a growing proportion of them even though the lifestyle available in the regions is fantastic. Imagine what would happen to Auckland versus regional house prices if a public transport drone pod could take you from your work in Auckland CBD to Mokau in 30 minutes!
Some people are of the opinion that you can greatly improve the affordability problem in Auckland by reducing immigration. To help you understand why that is not a realistic contributor to the “solution” consider these numbers. On average in the past 20 years we have enjoyed a net migration gain of 10,000 people per annum. The last time we were at that average was July 2013. The total is now almost 64,000. What has caused the change over the near two and a half year period ending in November 2015? The number of people leaving New Zealand on a permanent or long-term basis has fallen by almost 22,000 from 79,000 to 57,000. This then explains 40% of the 54,000 net migration change since July 2013 (64,000 less 10,000). Increased inflows account for the remaining 32,000 part of the 54,000 change. More Kiwis coming back and Aussies waltzing in add up to 6,500. More students studying long-term add up to 13,000. Visitors coming in for longer than a one year jaunt around our lands add up to 1,129. That leaves just under 11,000 to explain. 9,000 of these people have come here for work – probably either to work on dairy farms down south which Kiwis don’t want to work on, or to help rebuild Christchurch because of our well known shortage of builders. That leaves just under 2,000 people to explain. 124 are classified as “Other”, and the other 1,519 are here because they have been granted residence. So, if you want to try and influence the housing market by cutting back migration-driven population growth you must either force people already here to leave, stop Kiwis and Aussies coming here, prevent people arriving to build the houses we need, or curtail growth in the lucrative foreign student industry. You could of course cut back on residency visas, but given that only 13,8989 people came in on them in the year to November, you’d not really much change the net migration flows. Controlling migration to influence population growth is not an option for New Zealand because unlike some other countries, our migration flows are not driven by migrants. They are you and I leaving or coming back, workers specifically sought by businesses, students, and a few Aussies. And cutting immigration would be biting off our nose to spite our face because we need the ideas, the vibrancy, the desire to contribute, the connections, and the open thinking embraced by people shifting half-way around the planet if we are to move our economy toward reduced dependence upon commodity trading. NZ Dollar This morning’s rate review by the Reserve Bank was more dovish than expected (see below) and the NZD reacted by falling about 0.6 cents to end this afternoon roughly where it was a week ago against the USD near 64.4 cents. Downside pressure also followed Fonterra cutting their forecast payout for this season from $4.60 to $4.15. But we are down near 1.5 cents against the AUD to a two month low of 91.6 cents as the AUD this week was boosted by slightly higher than expected inflation leading to reduced expectations of another rate cut by the RBA below 2%. Our expectation and the RB desire is that the NZD fall further. But it pays to remember that at a time of renewed worries offshore we have some very good growth-supporting factors here in NZ which will lend strong support to our currency. Exporters should avoid getting over-optimistic about the NZD falling below US60 cents, and going below 90 Aussie cents for any length of time seems a brave call. You will find current spot rates here. http://www.xe.com/currency/nzd-new-zealand-dollar If I Were A Borrower What Would I Do? I like our three year fixed rate at 4.49% so would take that if taking out a mortgage or facing a rate reset at the moment. It is possible that fixed rates go lower but not by much given that US monetary policy is tightening and rate moves there tend to influence fixed rates here. Having said that, in light of the turbulence on world financial markets since the start of the year markets in the United States have shifted from pricing in another four rate rises of 0.25% in the US this year to just one or two. Similarly here in New Zealand expectations have risen of another easing of monetary policy to follow December’s 0.25% cut in the official cash rate to 2.5%. In making that decision the Reserve Bank wrote “We expect to achieve this (target range inflation) at current interest rate settings, although the Bank will reduce rates if circumstances warrant.” That was changed this morning at the no change rate review to … “Some further policy easing may be required over the coming year to ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range.” http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2016/ocr-28-jan-2016.html So if you like you might choose to sit floating waiting for lower fixed rates. But you will pay a price for doing so as floating rates are higher than all of our fixed rates. I see little chance of rates rising in the next couple of years so jumping into a fixed rate to avoid “missing out” is not really needed. But with fixed rates lower than floating it is simply a matter of when does one move to a good mid-term fixed rate. Personally, as already mentioned, I would fix three years now and stop worrying about trying to pick the bottom of the cycle. We have all proved we cannot do it. For Noting I came across an interesting piece of analysis regarding China this week. For years we have all been running on the expectation that for quite a few years more there would be an annual migration from the Chinese countryside into the cities of 10 – 15 million people and that the proportion of China’s population classed as urban would rise substantially above the 50% hit about three years ago. However what the analysts have missed apparently is that many if not most of the people still considered “rural” have in fact become “urban” as they have shifted into newly built or expanded small cities (county towns) throughout the country. These towns, which one might in an NZ context consider akin to Kaitaia, have been ignored. Including them means the proportion of the labour force considered as working on farms drops from around 40% to 20%, the flow of migrants into the big cities has ended, and the expected demand for iron and cement to build accommodation for these people does not exist. They have already been rehoused from country shacks into city apartments. This helps explain why last year the official count of migrants in China’s big cities fell 5.7 million to 246 million and why China has a massive over-supply of apartments running to the millions though no official number exists on its size. Suffice to say however that as a result of opening up all the spigots to fight the GFC, in the three year period from 2011 to 2013 China used more cement that the United States in all of the twentieth century!

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/767495a0-e99b-11e4-b863-00144feab7de.html#axzz3yJFb3aPJ

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-33802777

http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2016/01/22/chinas-working-age-population-sees-biggest-ever-decline/

This mispredicting of future migrant flows means analysts have overestimated future (current) demand for the likes of iron ore and coal to make steel – hence price collapses. At least when it comes to forecast growth in demand for quality food products the dynamic is different as this is dependent upon income growth which is expected to remain firm. But misforecasting the rural-urban growth bonus is only one negative factor in play for China. Others include huge debts for companies, banks and regional governments, too many factories and power plants, rising pollution and dissatisfaction about it, rising clampdowns on dissent, increasing blaming of foreigners, a falling currency, bleeding foreign currency reserves, a plummeting sharemarket, capital controls, and so on. One cannot blame so many Chinese in recent years trying to get their funds out of the country. And even if they paid inflated prices for property elsewhere on the planet, each month that the Yuan falls in value they are better off – especially when it comes to the social status having offshore assets confers. Not that anyone makes a song and dance about such things these days with the government clamping down on corruption and leaving an implication that anyone with substantial assets offshore must have done something wrong back on the mainland. China almost certainly will not have an economic collapse. But it does face potentially many years of uneven transition from an economy driven by exports, manufacturing and fixed asset investment toward one driven by consumption, and many years of working away at the debts built up by so many players. With Plan A faltering, watch for Plan B for keeping the populace willing to tolerate rule of the CCP – conflict against foreigners.
The Weekly Overview is written by Tony Alexander, Chief Economist at the Bank of New Zealand. The views expressed are my own and do not purport to represent the views of the BNZ. To receive the Weekly Overview each Thursday night please sign up at www.tonyalexander.co.nz To change your address or unsubscribe please click the link at the bottom of your email. Tony.alexander@bnz.co.nz
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Cook Strait White Whale Confirmed As Migaloo

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NewsroomPlus.com A white humpback whale spotted in Cook Strait last winter has been confirmed as Migaloo, a famous white whale usually seen off Australia. Migaloo with black humpback in Cook Strait The white humpback whale was seen on 5 July by researchers on the annual Cook Strait Whale Survey, a partnership between the Department of Conservation and OMV New Zealand. DNA analysis by Oregon State University in the United States of a skin sample taken from the white whale by the survey team has found it matches the genetic profile taken from Migaloo off Australia, confirming it is the same whale. The Cook Strait sighting was the first of Migaloo in New Zealand waters and outside of Australian waters. At the time, Cook Strait Whale Survey leader Nadine Bott said distinctive features on the white whale, including its dorsal fin, strongly indicated it was Migaloo. “I was confident it was Migaloo but it’s good to have it supported by DNA results which give us 99.99% certainty it was him,” said Nadine Bott. “Migaloo being in New Zealand waters supports the findings from our Cook Strait research that humpbacks seen off eastern Australia also move through our waters and perhaps even more so than we had thought. This has been indicated particularly by matches of photos of humpback whales seen during our survey with photos of humpbacks off eastern Australia. “My thanks go to Oregon State University for undertaking the DNA analysis and Auckland University for assisting in getting the skin sample to the United States. Confirming it is Migaloo helps us in learning more about humpbacks in South Pacific waters.” Migaloo – Aboriginal for ‘white fella’ – was first seen off eastern Australia in 1991 and has been seen there almost every year since. White humpbacks are extremely rare with only four reported in the world. Migaloo is the most famous and is thought to have fathered two white calves which have been making appearances along Australia’s eastern coast. One has been named MJ, short for Migaloo junior. Another white humpback whale was spotted in Norway last year. The annual Cook Strait Whale Survey is assessing humpback whale recovery since commercial whaling ended in 1964 and has run for 12 years. Last year’s four-week survey counted a record 137 humpback whales which is an encouraging indication their numbers are increasing in New Zealand. –]]>

NewsRoom Digest: Top NZ News Items for January 28 Edition, 2016

Newsroom Digest

Today’s edition of NewsRoom_Digest features 3 resourceful links of the day and the politics pulse from Thursday 28th January. It is best viewed on a desktop screen.

NEWSROOM_MONITOR

Noteworthy stories in the current news cycle include the Reserve Bank leaving the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.5 percent, Fonterra cutting its forecast milk payout for the current season, and the Labour Party making it clear that it will not support the TPP in its current form.

POLITICS PULSE

Media releases issued from Parliament by political parties today 

included:

Government: NZ among top nations in fighting corruption; $12 billion reduction in benefit liability; Partnership school agreement terminated; New $6m block for Khandallah School, Wellington; NZ’s most remote students connected to the world;Two new Corrections Officers presented with the Minister’s Excellence Award; Labour MPs’ support of TPP welcomed

Greens: Housing crisis still worrying Reserve Bank; ECan needs to explain if it’s letting polluters off the hook; Kids bear the costs of Govt’s charter school experiment; ‘Stock in lake’ incident shows Govt is failing to protect our waterways; Lax response to cows in waterways a symptom of Canterbury’s democratic deficit

Labour: New TPPA study at odds with Govt report; Milk payout drop – Govt must take action on economy; NZ loses squeaky clean corruption-free reputation; Pasifika caucus visit as Kiribati water crisis deepens; Joyce destroys Government rail link certainty; Scandalous Saudi sheep saga rolls on; Differing view on TPPA agreed

New Zealand First: All Aboard For Auckland Only, Says Peters; Northland Only Rates A Mention, Misses Out On Big Projects; Government Admits Public Transport Failure; Milk Payout Plummets – Threatens An Economic Storm; Flag Flying Blues Hit Key’s Campaign; Drowning Toll Makes School Pools More Important Than Ever; Defence Force Stitched Up On Foreign-Made Uniforms

United Future Party: Dunne Speaks: The farce of state of the nation addresses

LINKS OF THE DAY

BENEFIT EVALUATION: The latest benefit valuation which shows a $12 billion reduction over four years in the welfare system’s future lifetime cost, which equates to clients spending 900,000 fewer years on benefits over their working lifetimes, compared to pre-reform expectations: The full valuation report is available at:http://www.msd.govt.nz/about-msd-and-our-work/newsroom/media-releases/2016/2015-valuation-of-the-benefit-system-for-working-age-adults.html

CORRUPTION INDEX: New Zealand has fallen to fourth place in the Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI).Click here for the report:http://www.transparency.org.nz/docs/2016/cpi/Corruption%20Perceptions%20Index%202015%20report_EMBARGO.pdf

OVERSEAS MERCHANDISE TRADE: In December 2015 the value of imported goods was $52.5 billion, a new high for a calendar year,according to Statistics New Zealand. Read more: http://bit.ly/1KbQ1Sr

And that’s our sampling of “news you can use” for Thursday 28th January.

Brought to EveningReport by Newsroom Digest.

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MIL-PMC Joint Venture: New Asia Pacific Report website launches today

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Source: Multimedia Investments Ltd and Pacific Media Centre

[caption id="attachment_8644" align="alignleft" width="300"]AsiaPacificReport.nz. AsiaPacificReport.nz.[/caption] An enterprising new media collaboration between a journalism school and an independent news organisation will take off today (Thursday, January 28, 2016 4:15pm) in a bid to bolster Asia Pacific news and analysis in New Zealand. Asia Pacific Report will feature news reports and features from student journalists on a postgraduate Asia Pacific studies course at Auckland University of Technology and a network of contributing academics and journalists around the region. The new website, to be launched by Pacific Cooperation Foundation CEO Laulu Mac Leauanae, is a result of a collaboration between Evening Report owner and editor Selwyn Manning and AUT’s Pacific Media Centre director Professor David Robie. “This will be a fresh ‘Pacific voice’ in the media. A series of excellent, in-depth stories are being filed by our students and collaborating journalists and they deserve a digital showcase for their award-winning work,” says Dr Robie. “AsiaPacificReport.nz will be a stimulating and challenging new source of news and current affairs available to the public. And with our Creative Commons licence policy it will be available for the regional Pacific media to tap into.” Over the past three years Manning’s company, Multimedia Investments Ltd, has successfully launched Evening Report, The Daily Blog, 36th-Parallel.com, Newskitchen.eu, de.Newskitchen.eu, ForeignAffairs.co.nz and LiveNews.co.nz as independent media outlets, and has provided the springboard, inspiration and technical support for the AsiaPacificReport.nz venture. Selwyn Manning says AsiaPacificReport.nz seamlessly displays all forms of digital reportage and analysis in an easy to navigate design. It was built from the ground up with convergence in mind and its content logic accentuates the strengths of Pacific Media Centre’s editorial policy and course outputs. Significant reach “Multimedia Investments will provide significant reach for the PMC’s reportage and analysis. “It will enable the publishing of AsiaPacificReport.nz’s content into global media outlets, including Dow Jones Factiva, Lexis Nexis, Moreover, and Acquire Media. “We look forward to launching Asia Pacific Report and are confident it will be a significant outlet and a reliable source for public discourse and debate within the Asia Pacific region,” Manning says. Among objectives of the website, Dr Robie says, are:

•    An independent Asia-Pacific voice telling the “untold” stories

•    An educational media resource boosting the quality of regional reporting

•    Addressing issues of equity and justice

•    Providing Asia-Pacific journalism internships as a professional development opportunity.

Manning, a former chair of the PMC Advisory Board, and Dr Robie previously collaborated with the Pacific Scoop venture, founded in 2009. The AsiaPacificReport.nz website launch – Thursday at 4:15pm. –]]>

Giant Dairy Exporter Fonterra Reduces Forecast Farmgate Milk Prices for 2016

In a statement this morning, Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited announced it has reduced its forecast Farmgate Milk Price for the 2015/16 season from $4.60 per kgMS to $4.15 per kgMS. The Fonterra statement follows:

When combined with the earnings per share range of 45-55 cents, this means a total available for payout of $4.60-$4.70 per kgMS and would currently equate to a forecast Cash Payout of $4.50-$4.55 per kgMS to our farmers after retentions.

Chairman John Wilson said global economic conditions continue to be challenging and are impacting demand for a range of commodities, including dairy.

“Key factors driving dairy demand are declining international oil prices which have weakened the spending power of countries reliant on oil revenues, economic uncertainty in developing economies and a slow recovery of dairy imports into China. In addition, the Russian ban on European Union dairy imports continues to push more product on to the world market.

“There is still an imbalance between supply and demand which continues to put pressure on global milk prices. Since last September, prices on GlobalDairyTrade for Whole Milk Powder (WMP) have fallen 12 per cent, and Skim Milk Powder (SMP) prices are down 8 per cent.

“Although New Zealand farmers have responded to lower global prices by reducing supply, that has yet to happen in other regions, including Europe, where milk volumes have continued to increase.

Chief Executive Theo Spierings said while global demand remained sluggish, Fonterra supported the general view that dairy prices will improve later this calendar year.

“However the time frame for supply and demand rebalancing has moved further out and largely depends on a downward correction in EU supply in response to the lower global prices. These prices are clearly unsustainably low for farmers globally and cannot continue in the longer term.

“It is important to state that despite the current challenges, we have confidence long-term international dairy demand will continue its expansion due to a growing world population, increasing middle classes in Asia, urbanisation and favourable demographics.

“While a unique series of global issues are impacting the forecast Milk Price, the business is performing well, as outlined in our business update in November, and is on track to generate improved dividend returns. Fonterra has remained focused on reducing costs, increasing efficiencies and shifting more milk into higher value products,” said Mr Spierings.

Mr Wilson said: “The reduction in the forecast Farmgate Milk Price will be very tough on our farmers. As we confirm the Co-op’s performance for the first half of the financial year, we will look at the best way to help our farmers’ cash flows, underpinned by the expected improvement in dividend returns and the financial strength of the Co-operative.

“We will continue to keep our farmers updated as the season progresses,” said Mr Wilson.

Note: currency is New Zealand dollars unless otherwise stated.

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Across the Ditch: TPPA Signing + Trams Auckland Rail Link + Aussie’s NZ Cricket Tour

Across the Ditch: Australia radio FiveAA.com.au’s Peter Godfrey and EveningReport.nz’s Selwyn Manning deliver this week’s Across the Ditch. This week Peter and Selwyn discuss: TPPA Signing on Feb 4: New Zealand Government will host the Trans Pacific Partnership nations in Auckland on February 4 for the signing of the TPP Agreement. This despite New Zealand getting little out of it (It failed to negotiate a satisfactory milk powder export deal, and failed in that the people and corporates of TPPA nations will be able to buy up NZ land, buildings and homes beneath a $200 million cap. Consequently, the majority of Kiwis do not want the deal to go ahead). Auckland Public Transport: Trams and an announcement Wednesday (today) that the Government will fund in part the Auckland CBD city rail link – which is a bit of a breakthrough after a few years of stalemate. Australia Cricket Tour of NZ: And Australia is about to kick off its Cricket tour of New Zealand with its first one day international match against New Zealand’s Blackcaps at Auckland’s Eden Park on February 3.

Across the Ditch was broadcast Live on FiveAA.com.au on January 28 2016 and webcast on EveningReport.nz, LiveNews.co.nz and ForeignAffairs.co.nz.

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TPPA protests: it’s far from over

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Evening Report
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TPPA protests: it's far from over
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Report by Carolyn Skelton. Highlights from the TPPA Don’t Sign meeting in Auckland Town Hall. I am a novice in the filming for and editing of videos, so please excuse the technical quality. https://youtu.be/5suCmPKeiAA The content is very important. The full video of the event, as live streamed on the Daily Blog, will be available online soon. [Edit: Full video now available on the Daily Blog] The TPPA “Don’t Sign” meeting began in Auckland Town Hall on the evening of 26 January 2016. with a welcome from Joe Hawke of Ngāti Whātua He was supported from a group from his iwi, who joined together to sing a waiata. Moana Maniapoto responded, stating that the Ngāti Whātua group had been central to 1978 protests, and drew parallels with the anti-TPPA protests. [See Te Ara for more on Joe Hawke.] Maniapoto said the TPPA had united a diverse range of New Zealanders in opposition to it. The main message from the meeting was that the TPPA was far from a done deal: the campaign against it will continue. Lori Wallach from the Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch, explained the process in the US: the president signing an international deal means nothing until it passes Congress; and that possibility was still uncertain, with a long way to go before the outcome is known. Furthermore, Wallach warned that, if the NZ government changed laws to comply with the TPPA before the text is agreed by the US, (and Japanese) legislature, NZ could be screwed. The US Congress could require some parts of the TPPA to be changed before they would agree to it. If NZ changed it’s laws too soon, it could find itself locked into a deal that is increasingly bad for NZ. Jane Kelsey talked of the peer reviewed analyses of the TPPA (available here), and used her rat toy as a metaphor for the dead rats Tim Groser has swallowed in agreeing to the TPPA. See the report from the Pacific Media Centre on the town hall meeting, with a photo of the “dead rat” and a focus on the implications of the TPPA for Māori. Kelsey argued that the newly released “National Interest” document is propaganda, in the National Party interest, written by the people who negotiated the TPPA. The document ignores the downsides. See the MFAT web site for the document, and the full text of the TPPA. Metiria Turei stated clearly, and resoundingly that the Green Party is opposed to the TPPA: that it’s good for big business, but bad for New Zealanders, the environment, and our sovereignty. Grant Robertson delivered a rousing speech that was critical of the TPPA, because it undermines our sovereignty. He highlighted the Labour Party legacy in standing up for the rights of new Zealanders, while also supporting good trade deals. He said the TPPA is not a good deal. However, Robertson failed to state explicitly what the Labour Party will be doing about it. Some see this as an indication of lack of consensus within the Labour caucus on the TPPA. Wayne Mapp argues in comments on the Standard, that Robertson’s speech indicated that the Labour Party would contest the enabling legislation. In the evening of 27 January 2016, Andrea Vance reported that Labour’s Andrew Little has stated they are opposed to the TPPA. In the video, Little states that, in government, they would look to renegotiate the TPPA. [TVOne video available here.] At the town hall meeting, Marama Fox, Māori Party co-leader, delivered a powerful speech. She talked of the Treaty of Waitangi and how it didn’t deliver to Māori the benefits promised by the British. She drew strong parallels with the TPPA, and said to those watching, “Welcome to our world!” Fox said that, if Māori had known in advance how the things would work out for them, they would have lined the borders holding muskets. She talked of how both National and Labour governments had not worked in their interests in the past, and re-iterated the Māori Party view that it is better to be at the table working towards the Māori Party goals. What would the 21st century equivalent be to defending the country’s borders against the new wave of imperialism embedded int he TPPA. (See information about Tabuteau here.) It will be bad for NZ businesses and increase inequalities in NZ. Moana Maniapoto ended with a beautiful and inspiring song of hope. The RNZ audio report of the meeting is here: http://podcast.radionz.co.nz/mnr/mnr-20160127-0741-tpp_critics_meet_-_the_deal_is_not_done_yet-048.mp3 More information about the TPPA Don’t Sign Nationwide meetings on the It’s Our Future site, plus other upcoming events.]]>

PMC: Rousing, inspirational public challenge to no way TPPA deal

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MIL OSI Analysis – Professor Kelsey and her TPPA “dead rat” at the Auckland Town Hall Tuesday night. [caption id="attachment_8687" align="alignleft" width="300"]Professor Kelsey and her TPPA "dead rat" at the Auckland Town Hall tonight. Image: Del Abcede/PMC. Professor Kelsey and her TPPA “dead rat” at the Auckland Town Hall tonight. Image: Del Abcede/PMC.[/caption]AUCKLAND (Pacific Media Watch): A leading critic of the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement tonight showed off “Tim the dead rat” to rousing cheers, laughter and applause as a packed Auckland Town Hall heard devastating critiques of the controversial deal.

Law professor Jane Kelsey’s toy rat lightened up the evening for a moment, but she and former United States trade lawyer Lori Wallach tore the agreement to shreds in their harsh criticism.

Wallach told the crowd they were “not alone” as she detailed the strong opposition in the US Congress, which she said would eventually stop the pact in its tracks.

Ministers of the 12-country trade pact are due to sign it in Auckland on Thursday in a symbolic gesture, but one that was described by many speakers at the event as “arrogant” and an “insult to all Māori” just days before Waitangi Day.

Most speakers condemned the pact as not being about trade, but a surrender of New Zealand’s sovereignty to the US corporations achieved through a flawed anti-democratic process.

At odds with Māori
Earlier, Dr Kelsey said in an interview with Radio Waatea that the reforms proposed in the deal were at odds with where the Māori economy was heading.

The government had turned up the rhetoric on the deal over the past few days, saying it offered increased earnings for Māori exporters and jobs for Māori workers.

But Professor Jane Kelsey told interviewer Willie Jackson any tariff reductions would take years to kick in, and that was not the area where the Māori economy was growing.

“It is growing by relationship trading. It’s building networks, it’s not about, you reduce your tariffs and our economy will grow.

It’s a very kaupapa Māori-based approach, although I know there is a debate within Māori about that. So [the TPPA is] not the kind of model that’s the growth model for the Māori economy, even if you are going to be looking at that narrow part of it,” she says.

Dr Kelsey said the Waitangi Tribunal claim to be heard in March would cover other likely effects of the TPPA such as making it harder for Māori to access affordable medicines and the obstacles put up on protecting the environment.

Professor Kelsey and Wallach will speak about the TPPA tomorrow in Wellington at St Andrews Church on the Terrace, on Thursday at the Pop Up Cathedral in Christchurch and at Dunedin’s Burns Hall on Friday.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 New Zealand Licence.

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NewsRoom Digest: Top NZ News Items for January 27 Edition, 2016

Newsroom Digest

Today’s edition of NewsRoom_Digest features 4 resourceful links of the day and the politics pulse from Wednesday 27th January. It is best viewed on a desktop screen.

NEWSROOM_MONITOR

Noteworthy stories in the current news cycle include the Government working with the Auckland Council to bring forward the start date of the City Rail Link by two years, the International Ratings Agency Fitch revising down its assessment of New Zealand’s economic outlook, and the Corrections Department saying it will in future tell Child Youth and Family when it releases prisoners who pose a risk to children.

POLITICS PULSE

Media releases issued from Parliament by political parties today 

included:

Government: Government To Move Forward On City Rail Link; Speech: John Key – Speech to Auckland Chamber of Commerce; $115m to accelerate regional roading projects; Infrastructure programme rich source of jobs; New Science Challenge to boost land productivity and the environment

ACT Party: Key must follow up rail with education funding;Council gets the money and the bag

Greens: Green Party Celebrates End To CRL delay;More cracks in Government’s economic façade; Education and steeper fines needed to get stock out of waterways

Labour: Key last to board the City Rail Link; National can’t ignore economic warnings

Māori Party: The chameleon of New Zealand politics strikes again; Pororoaki : Andrew Sarich

New Zealand First: Speech: Winston Peters State of Nation Orewa; Peters- Another Reason Not To Change NZ Flag

NZ National Party: Decision on East-West road link welcomed

LINKS OF THE DAY

HOUSEHOLD LABOUR: The the working-age population estimate of the usually resident, non-institutionalised, civilian population of New Zealand aged 15 years and over was today released today by Statistics New Zealand. Read more: http://bit.ly/1SIZfs2

NATIONAL SCIENCE CHALLENGE: The Our Land and Water National Science Challenge, which aims to enhance primary sector production and productivity while maintaining and improving land and water quality was launched yesterday. For more information about the National Science Challenges, visit: http://www.mbie.govt.nz/info-services/science-innovation/national-science-challenges/

REGIONAL ROADING PROJECTS: Funding of up to $115 million to accelerate regionally significant roading projects in Taranaki, Gisborne and Marlborough was announced today. More information on the Accelerated Regional Roading Programme can be found at: http://www.transport.govt.nz/arrp

REGIONAL TOURISM INDICATORS: The Regional Tourism Indicators (RTI) for December 2015 was released today. The RTI are based on electronic card transaction data and provide regular updates on both international and domestic tourism expenditure at a regional level. Read more: http://www.mbie.govt.nz/info-services/sectors-industries/tourism/tourism-research-data/regional-tourism-indicators

And that’s our sampling of “news you can use” for Wednesday 27th January.

Brought to EveningReport by Newsroom Digest.

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Live Stream: TPPA Don’t Sign public meeting at the Auckland Town Hall

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TPPA Don’t Sign public meeting at the Auckland Town Hall. The first of the “TPPA: Don’t Sign” public meetings is on Tuesday night at 7pm in Auckland Town Hall. Washington-based expert analyst Lori Wallach, Director of Public Citizen Global Trade Watch, will explain about the realities of TPPA politics in a US presidential election year, and the likelihood that the agreement will not get to a vote in 2016, after which it becomes hostage to a new administration.

University of Auckland law professor Jane Kelsey will discuss recent assessments of the impacts of the TPPA for New Zealand based on the series of peer reviewed expert papers that have now been released.*

The second half of the meeting will be a political panel of parliamentary representatives:

Grant Robertson, Economic Spokesperson, Labour Party

Metiria Turei, Co-leader, NZ Greens

Marama Fox, Co-leader, Maori Party

Fletcher Tabuteau, Trade Spokesperson, NZ First

Barry Coates from Its Our Future will talk about Auckland based activities in the lead-up to the proposed signing of the agreement on 4 February.

The meeting will be live streamed on The Daily Blog.

The other meetings are at:

Wellington, Wednesday 27 January, 7pm, St Andrews on the Terrace

Christchurch, Thursday 28 January, 7pm, Cardboard Cathedral

Dunedin, Friday 29 January, 7pm, Burns Hall (next to First Church), Moray Place

The “TPPA: Don’t Sign” speaking tour is co-sponsored by ItsOurFuture, ActionStation, New Zealand Council of Trade Unions and First Union.

*The expert papers on the Regulatory Process, Investment, Economics, Environment and Treaty of Waitangi can be accessed on tpplegal.wordpress.com.

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