Independent Analysis and Reportage
Keith Rankin writes; ... by the way, that the cost of retirement is the resources that go into supporting retired people whether their money comes from a pension or from drawing down private savings. The biggest 'burden' is a country's affluent retired, who draw resources away from everyone else.
Keith Rankin writes; Imagine a world in which all countries have an income tax scale which offers at least a Basic Universal Income. Then, all workers – all economic citizens – in the world should have access to some level of BUI; but in practice people who are citizens of one country but denizens of another would miss out. My view is that the BUI should be paid by their country of tax-residency rather than their country of formal citizenship.
Keith Rankin writes; The general talk among the realist academic community is that the world is safer now, because the Euro-American 'unipolar moment' has been defeated – note past tense – and that the important political and academic discussions are about the present – not future – construction of a constructive multipolar world, and whether Europe can or will play any serious part in this future world order.
Keith Rankin writes: These age-specific data do not show the pattern of specifically trans-Tasman migration. Though we do know that this is the biggest component of emigration; indeed an even bigger component these days, given the heightened geopolitical risks of living further afield.
Keith Rankin writes; Mercantilism is both a narrative about what the elite world is (as opposed to what someone might wish it to be), and a prescription for success within that world. That prescription may be best summarised as 'mining money'.
Keith Rankin writes; Geopolitics – whether 'kinetic' or not – should be conducted in its own time and place; and with a rational balancing of risks and consequences. Munich Syndrome – trying to correct for past weakness as a form of present penance – risks converting one overstated past mistake into a much bigger present mistake with existential consequences for the near future.
Keith Rankin writes; The declines in the last six weeks might be the start of a bigger depreciation; this is especially so in the sense that its not politically viable for the RBNZ to push interest rates up to the five-percent level which would be required for New Zealand to outcompete on interest rates the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, for floating international money.
Analysis by Keith Rankin.Role: Economic historian. Keith Rankin, 2 October 2026 – On 18 September I applied textbook ‘circular flow’ consideration to the New Zealand economy, in the context of plans by Labour and National to expand a savings mechanism at a time when a higher proportion than ever of New Zealanders’ savings are draining rather ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Feedback Economics: Stabilisation versus Escalation" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2026/10/02/keith-rankin-analysis-feedback-economics-stabilisation-versus-escalation/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Feedback Economics: Stabilisation versus Escalation">Read more</a>
Keith Rankin writes; What's the chance that an elite rugby player will drop the ball in a high stakes' game? One in ten maybe? Would anyone choose to play elite sport if they had a one-in-ten chance of (literally) eliminating themselves and their opponent? I guess the Roman gladiators took those kinds of chances; but they typically did not have the option to choose.
Keith Rankin writes; The present New Zealand government is arguably the most hawkish that this country has ever had; and the economists who influence policymaking are also unusually hawkish at present... The only contenders for a more hawkish previous government would be the National Government of 1990 to 1993, and the Reform-United Coalition Government in 1931 and 1932.
Keith Rankin writes; My key point is that a nuclear apocalypse would be more than a single-species suicide: it could be a murder-suicide that would destroy all life on Earth; indeed all life in the Universe if Earth is the only place with life. So, could an AI holocaust be a good thing? The answer has to be 'yes', if AI gets there first, killing only all humans and not all life.
Germany is a country undergoing societal collapse – as in the Great Depression of 1930 to 1933 – and which is only keeping its economy 'above-water' by resorting to militarism. In the 1930s, the liberals failed big-time, and the population turned to the far-right for solutions. This time, it looks like the failing 'liberals' may be morphing into a new-far-right. The SPD – Germany's equivalent of New Zealand's Labour Party – is becoming increasingly irrelevant in the process.