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NewsRoom Digest: Top NZ News Items for February 12 Edition, 2016

Newsroom Digest

Today’s edition of NewsRoom_Digest features 2 resourceful link of the day and the politics pulse from Friday 14th February. It is best viewed on a desktop screen.

NEWSROOM_MONITOR

Noteworthy stories in the current news cycle include two storms in the Pacific having the potential to become formidable cyclones by tomorrow morning as they head towards New Zealand, food prices jumping sharply due to seasonally higher fruit and vegetable prices, and markets around the world posting sharp declines amid continuing anxiety over the state of the global economy.

POLITICS PULSE

Media releases issued from Parliament by political parties today 

included:

Government: Appointment of Queen’s Counsel in 2016; Works to start on new Manukau Bus Station; One week left to have your say on ETS Review; $13.6m Rāwhiti School officially open;Another grant to help returning offenders

Labour: We need a frontline drug for Melanoma; Labour To Keep Fighting To Axe Zero Hour Contracts

New Zealand First: Government Passing Buck On Tourist Drivers; Northland Bus Ban Just Petty Bully

NZ National Party: New Special Housing Areas for Maungakiekie; MP applauds new social housing project

LINKS OF THE DAY

RISE IN FOOD PRICES: Food prices rose 2.0 percent in January 2016, Statistics New Zealand said today. Read more: http://bit.ly/20YkDeo

RISE IN REGIONAL PRICES: “The latest REINZ January statistics released today tell only one real story and that is many of New Zealand’s regions are experiencing a significant lift in both real estate sale prices and sale volumes,” says Geoff Barnett – National Manager of Century 21 New Zealand. Click here for more: 

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/Press%20Releases/2016%20January/REINZ%20Residential%20Press%20Release%20January%202016.pdf

And that’s our sampling of “news you can use” for Friday 14th February.

Brought to EveningReport by Newsroom Digest.

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Bryce Edwards’ Political Roundup: The New critics of Waitangi

Political Roundup by Dr Bryce Edwards.

[caption id="attachment_4808" align="alignleft" width="150"]Dr Bryce Edwards. Dr Bryce Edwards.[/caption]

Is anyone happy with how Waitangi Day is observed? This year’s criticism and protests were quite different, leading to increased suggestions for change.

There are always complaints about Waitangi Day but this year Maori leaders and commentators were at the forefront of increased criticism. Much of this was directed against Ngapuhi for the way it handled arrangements at the lower marae.

The most interesting critique came from Willie Jackson – a long-time Maori protestor, activist, politician and broadcaster – in his response to “the latest bout of madness” over the PM’s invitation to Waitangi – see: Time to end the Waitangi stupidity

Jackson blames a lack of leadership in Ngapuhi, which he says is surprising given the amount of talent in the iwi: “I have a lot of admiration for Northern Maori or Ngapuhi, they have produced some of Maoridom’s finest advocates and leaders… But somehow, come Waitangi Day, that leadership just disappears.” He concludes “If Ngapuhi leadership refuse to respond then the future of Waitangi Day being celebrated as our National day will no doubt be threatened yet again.”

Few of Jackson’s leaders appeared to intervene to fix Ngapuhi’s problems over the PM’s invite, but there were certainly many Maori leaders – from within and outside of Ngapuhi – who made strident criticisms of what occurred. Former MP Shane Jones was possibly the harshest, saying “Unfortunately all Tai Tokerau (Northland) tribes are tainted by the Te Tii Marae circus. Their decision that the PM could go on the Marae but not talk makes a mockery of Marae culture” – see Stuff’s Shane Jones throws weight behind shifting Government welcome to Waitangi away from Ti Tii marae.

RNZ also reported Jones saying that “the lower marae had turned into a fools’ paradise” and “Waitangi’s welcome ceremony was being held hostage by the trustees of one marae, who had no mandate from other Maori in their decisions” – see: Waitangi was “ridiculous scenario” – Key.

Winston Peters also spoke out strongly declaring “This is our national day. We’re the only country in the world who craps all over our national day” – see Marika Hill’s Waitangi: sex toys and politics. He pointed the finger at his own iwi, saying “It’s high time for Ngapuhi leadership to front up and if they can’t be leaders step aside for someone who can.”  

Even Hone Harawira was highly critical of Ngapuhi’s actions, saying “They handled the whole thing really badly”. Jo Moir reported that on the decision to disinvite the PM, Harawira “abstained from voting but said his mother and other leaders had “put themselves in a situation of real jeopardy” by allowing the vote in the first place: “It’s a national marae and Ngapuhi are the guardians of it. What they should have done is asked other leaders from other areas for their opinion, listened to them and then decided. They didn’t have to take a vote” – see: Division amongst Ngapuhi leaders is putting the brakes on John Key going to Waitangi.

Labour MP Peeni Henare told Radio Waatea that Ngapuhi had allowed the mana of Te Tii Marae to be “dragged through the mud” – see Waatea News’ Mixed messages muddy Te Tii mana. Henare is reported as saying Key should have been given more respect, as “the tikanga is that the person holding the floor should be listened to respectfully, and it’s a missed opportunity the tribes can’t hear what the Prime Minister has to say”.

Some tribal leaders have spoken out. On Saturday, Te Kotahitanga co-chair Pita Tipene said Ngapuhi had embarrassed itself this yearand he called for a change to the way Waitangi Day is celebrated – see TVNZ’s Ngapuhi ’embarrassed itself’ at Waitangi this year – leader

Former Herald reporter on Maori issues, Jon Stokes, is annoyed that Maoridom and Ngapuhi allowed the TPP to become the focus of Waitangi Day, suggesting that more pressing political issues could have been chosen – such as “inequality and housing” – see: Waitangi grandstanding wasted opportunity for Maori. He says “Imagine Waitangi commemorations focused, for example, on analysing why Maori suffer far more deprivation and inequality than non-Maori in our society and seeking solutions and Government support.” And Stokes suggests the latest controversy “demonstrates the poor leadership and inability to co-ordinate across Maoridom”.

In a similar vein, the Otago Daily Times editorial, The road to Waitangi, also makes a plea for a re-focus on Maori “deprivation and inequality” in the politics around Waitangi. 

Alan Duff calls Ngapuhi’s actions “mass bullying, at its worst” – see: Ngapuhi should show some respect. He ponders how it would be seen if “the boot on the other foot and Parliament promises a hostile welcome to a Ngapuhi delegation wanting to visit.  There would be an uproar. And rightly so… If Ngapuhi leaders were jostled and yelled at, spat on, jeered, had ferocious haka done in their faces, do you think they’d be ‘happy, happy, joy, joy’, as Hone Harawira put it?”

Reform of Waitangi Day?

Interestingly the messages of such Maori commentators and leaders were broadly in line with those expressed earlier by Mike Hosking in his two-minute video, Why NZ’s national day is a mess. In this, Hosking claimed that Ngapuhi elder Kingi Taurua was a broken record who “drums up the same crap every year.”

Other pakeha commentators and media have also been critical of how Waitangi Day is observed, and spoken of reform. On TVNZ, Katie Bradford put together a useful three-minute item looking at different ideas on how to celebrate the national day – see: Key’s Waitangi boycott sparks debate about how we celebrate our National Day

Brian Rudman has come out and said “The annual humiliation of prime ministers at Waitangi’s lower marae needs to be knocked on the head for good” – see: Dildo jape distracts from the real issue. He calls the contemporary Te Tii Marae arrangements “tiresome” and complains of them being hi-jacked by a “boring pantomime”. 

Rudman calls for major reform: “Mr Key and Mr Little should be following Helen Clark’s lead and de-Waitangiing Waitangi Day. In 1840 after all, the Treaty was carried around the country for eight months after the Waitangi event, with meetings and signings taking place in over 50 places, from the Far North to Ruapuke Island in Foveaux Strait. So there are plenty of other places our leaders can go to mark the signing.  Alternatively, there are community events up and down the country.”

Act leader David Seymour, who is “of Ngapuhi descent”, also proposed a rotating location – see: Spread the love – take Waitangi Day on the road. He says “If an iwi is going to host representatives of the Crown to symbolise this 176-year-old relationship, why not rotate the host iwi and location? It could be in a different place each year, following the actual path that the Treaty took during 1840.  Ngāpuhi have denied the whole country a proud national day just one time too many. It is time to take this show on the road. There were 20-odd signing locations so it’ll come back around in 2036.”

Similarly, see David Farrar’s Jones says shift Waitangi Day celebrations. He says: “Why not shift it around New Zealand and allow different Iwi to host it? I’m sure Ngai Tahu would put on an exceptionally good Waitangi Day, for example.  You could rotate it among all the Iwi that have completed Treaty settlements with the Crown.”

Peter Dunne says we should “scrap Queen’s Birthday and turn that into a national day for New Zealand” – see: Dunne: Should there be two national days? Under Dunne’s scenario, the country would “have two national days – a day we celebrate the signing of the treaty, and a day we set aside to be our national day”.

Do the existing arrangements even adequately reflect Maoridom? John Roughan, a regular attendee at Waitangi, thinks not: “I’d noticed the number of visiting iwi diminishing in latter years. Elders no longer speak at the dawn karakia. People sit on chairs and clerics say a few prayers. The protests are no longer about land loss and resources, just standard left-wing issues of the day such as asset sales and the TPP” – see: Waitangi event has lost mana

Duncan Garner says Ngapuhi’s treatment of John Key this year was “mad, stupid and short-sighted, and I hope other iwi present tell him so too.  If iwi have an issue it’s best they welcome Key onto the marae and have it out with him verbally. Banning him does nothing” – see: Kingi Taurua shouldn’t block Key over TPP. Garner followed this up, saying “Key should go and celebrate the day with the rest of the country and turn his back on these people, for good. He should never return. This is their loss. It’s pathetic” – see: Ngāpuhi nuts to block PM

Many newspaper editorials have been in line with this – for example the Dominion Post said that Maori opposition to the Government should protest rather than seek to undemocratically censor the PM – see: Trying to silence the prime minister is an anti-democratic act

However there are many who do actually want the PM to return to the lower marae at Waitangi – including John Key himself. And some are calling for divine intervention to make it happen. At Waitangi “Te Ururoa Flavell prayed for Mr Key’s return next year” and “Steven Joyce offered a prayer on behalf of the Government at the service” to see Key’s return – see TVNZ: Ngapuhi ’embarrassed itself’ at Waitangi this year – leader

Labour leader Andrew Little has some mixed messages about the issue. At times he has appeared to side with Key over the Ngapuhi confusion, but he has also complained about Key not turning up, saying that if Little had been PM, “I would have turned up as an act of courage and leadership.”  – see Marika Hill’s Waitangi: sex toys and politics. One commentator says he’s having “a bob each way”.

In thinking about any future Waitangi Day reform, there’s a long history that needs to be taken into account. The Herald has published a very interesting Brief history of Waitangi Day. This includes the fact that in 1974 the day “was made a nationwide public holiday under Norman Kirk’s Labour Government and renamed New Zealand Day in a move towards a broader definition of nationhood. In 1976, when Rob Muldoon’s National Government came into power, the new name was dropped because Muldoon ‘didn’t like it’.”

And for some thoughtful ideas about the future of Treaty relations, see Bruce Munro’s feature, A Treaty for our times. In this, Janine Hayward suggests that although Treaty settlements are progress, “that is economic independence, not political. We are yet to have the conversation about that.” And Jacinta Ruru foreshadows “a morphing of our law into something that is not Pakeha law nor Maori law, but something new and distinctly New Zealand.”

Liberal responses to Waitangi criticisms

It’s not just Maori or conservatives with problems about how Waitangi Day is observed. A number of liberal commentators have also complained – albeit normally about the lack of respect for Waitangi Day in New Zealand, or about proposals to reform the day. The most interesting is James Robins’ “New Zealand Day” is a white supremacist dream

Robins examines those wanting to reform Waitangi Day and asks: “What is this if not white supremacy in action?” He says those proposing a new national day “would forcibly cleanse Māori influence on commemorations, therefore white-washing New Zealand’s bloody colonial past and doing away with need for constant apology.”

Similar allegations of racism are made by Lizzie Marvelly in My Waitangi Day one of joy and celebration. She complains that Waitangi Day is “a beacon for many forms of rabid ignorance”, and that criticisms are “inevitably tainted with racism, both thinly veiled and overt” – mostly from “those who have never had the opportunity to learn about its significance”. 

Some are even willing to teach the critics why they are wrong. History and religious studies lecturer Hirini Kaa says: “Have I got an opportunity for you! I would like to invite you this semester to enrol in my history course at the University of Auckland Waitangi: Treaty to Tribunal” – see: Dear Mike Hosking – I saw your Waitangi rant, and I can help

But for a quick history lesson, Martyn Bradbury offers a blog post: As we stumble towards another Waitangi Day – how racist is NZ really?

Guy Williams makes some similar points in a more humorous column, Why I love Waitangi Day. He argues that “Saying Waitangi Day should be called “New Zealand Day” is like saying Christmas should be called ‘Jesus’ Birthday Day’.” He proposes: “A day of celebration and remembrance, where we can all come together as a nation, have a barbecue, and chuck a clump of mud at Don Brash.”

And Lachlan Forsyth says that the Waitangi critics are best ignored: “I’m going to respond to those angry editorials and those ignorant rants with a big, fat yawn. Why?” – see: No more Waitangi Day bollocks

The notion that New Zealand could learn from Australia’s national day has many exasperated. For example, Toby Manhire comments on the idea of a national day: “You know, like Australia Day. Or, as thousands of Aboriginal Aussies call it, Survival Day, or sometimes Invasion Day: a cause not for celebration but for sorrow” – see: Key’s Waitangi decision a victory for those who long for a national day more like Australia’s celebration

TPP and Maori

Much of the heightened Waitangi mood this year has been blamed on the TPP. There is the idea that both the TPP and the Treaty of Waitangi have much in common, especially in the erosion of sovereignty. This is a point humorously made in Andrew Gunn’s column, When treaties collide.

This is why Toby Manhire suggests that the Government’s arrangement to hold the formal TPP signing just days before Waitangi Day was highly provocative – see: Key’s Waitangi decision a victory for those who long for a national day more like Australia’s celebration

Nonetheless, “Linking the Treaty to TPP has been a disaster for the left” says Audrey Young in Maori opposition to TPP means silent Kiwis will back Key. She believes that much of the public who are suspicious of the TPP will be nudged in its favour, thinking “If Hone Harawira thinks the TPP is bad for the Treaty of Waitangi, it must be good.”  

If the TPP is so bad for Maori, Patrick Gower asks, “why didn’t Māori make a song and dance like this when Labour signed the massive free trade deal with China in 2008?  Truth is, they were nowhere to be seen” – see: Did huge TPP protests force Key to re-think Waitangi?

The dildo protest

The biggest news to come out of Waitangi Day this year was the unusual protest in which a “squeaky toy penis” was thrown at Steven Joyce. The TPP protestor, Josie Butler, yelled at Joyce, “that’s for raping our sovereignty”. She explains this to the Mana Party’s Joe Trinder on the Daily Blog – see: Josie Butler – Why I threw the dildo at Steven Joyce. Elaborating on the rape allegation, she says “The TPPA is the rape of our tino rangitiratanga, the torture our basic human rights, and the murder of our people.”

Today Rosemary McLeod takes issue with the use of rape metaphors in politics – see her column, Playing rape for laughs undermines the crime. She argues that “We shouldn’t undermine the serious criminality of rape by accusing people of it every time they annoy us.”

Some of Butler’s fellow protestors were apparently less than impressed – see Marika Hill’s story, Prime Minister John Key target of flying-dildo Waitangi protest

Others thought that throwing a projectile at a politician was the wrong way to express dissent. Frances Cook argues that she has “no problem” with protesting, but this was simply “an attempt to humiliate” – see: Dildo no substitute for reasoned debate. Her larger point is: “throwing a dildo isn’t exactly a reasoned debate of pros and cons. What better way to reassure John Key that he did the right thing in skipping the formalities, and watching the rugby instead? What better way to reassure him that the protests against the TPP aren’t heartfelt worries, but loonies who hate the Government no matter what they do?”

Andrew Little also condemned the action, saying “There is a right way to protest, and people should protest and take their issues up, but I don’t think this was the best way to do it” – see Simon Wong’s Little: Objects shouldn’t be thrown at politicians. Yet somehow Little also managed to blame the National Government for dildo news coverage: “We have become a laughing stock under John Key’s government… It’s not good when our senior Government politicians seem to think it is ok for the rest of the world to laugh at us.”

John Key also argued that the dildo protest was bad for New Zealand’s image. He was backed up by Mike Hosking’s two-minute video, Dildo thrower should be ashamed

But his argument was roundly seen as hypocritical by commentators who cited Key’s own embarrassing moments in recent years – see Grant Shimmin’s Time to ask John Key a serious question and Simon Prast’s Cock and Balls

And Key might also want to note how the Bangkok Post interpreted his absence from Waitangi: “Mr Key’s belligerent showdown with his country’s original inhabitants was embarrassing for him and for New Zealand” – see the editorial, Forget about joining TPP

Steven Joyce’s much more relaxed and good-humoured reaction to the flying dildo was well received – see Claire Trevett’s Steven Joyce to go down in history as ‘Dildo Baggins’.

Inevitably there was a large international news interest in the dildo protest – for the best of this see the Herald’s World reaction to Joyce’s stiff opposition and Wilhelmina Shrimpton’s two-minute item World media react to sex toy TPP protest. For social media reaction, see: Steven Joyce and #dildogate: Internet goes into overdrive

The single-most amusing overseas coverage was in the New York Post – see: Flying penis hits New Zealand official at trade-deal protest. For the best “frame-by-frame analysis” of the video, see Calum Henderson’s History in pictures – the 2016 Waitangi Dildo Incident. And for a history lesson, see Stuff’s Political projectiles through history

Finally, Mike Hosking is the butt of most humour about Waitangi Day this year – see Jeremy Wells’  “Like Mike” segment on Waitangi Day, and “Perfect Mike Hosking’s” Waitangi Day – so far from perfect

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NewsRoom Digest: Top NZ News Items for February 11 Edition, 2016

Newsroom Digest

Today’s edition of NewsRoom_Digest features 7 resourceful link of the day and the politics pulse from Thursday 11th February. It is best viewed on a desktop screen.

NEWSROOM_MONITOR

Noteworthy stories in the current news cycle include a new report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) saying the likelihood of poor teens doing badly at school is higher in New Zealand than in almost all other OECD member nations, and New Zealand’s chief negotiator for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), David Walker, saying foreign investors wanting to sue the government face high hurdles.

POLITICS PULSE

Media releases issued from Parliament by political parties today included:

Government: More children benefiting from free GP visits; Force Fit and Occupation Outlook win international awards; New initiative to help at-risk kids succeed; NZ pledges $500,000 to help Pacific address Zika; New Special Housing Areas To Deliver 4500 More Homes For Auckland; International crime cooperation laws report welcomed; 21 months of consecutive guest night growth; Ratings changes to encourage Māori land development; $9m redevelopment for Thorndon School, Wellington; Kiwi scientists secure preferential access to Synchrotron; First wāhine Māori MPs honoured in Parliament today; Speech: Peter Dunne – Opening of Selby House Dental Hub Newtown, Wellington

ACT Party: ACT Seeks To Introduce Three Strikes For Burglary Bill; MPs refuse to debate tougher burglary laws

Greens: Education Minister proven wrong; SkyCity profit no cause for celebration

Labour: Confidence in CERA at an all-time low; Disillusioned digital divide; Te Puni Kokiri contractors cost $7.8 million; Concern over dividend suspension by tertiary provider; Minister deaf to mental health issues in Canterbury; Fingers in Pies as Ministry spends $100K a day on consultants

New Zealand First: Silver Carp Not Wanted In NZ – Minister Must Say No; Challenge To PM – Prove Your Fishing Story Or Pay Up; Immigration Helps Fuel Auckland Housing Bubble

NZ National Party: $9 Million for Thorndon School redevelopment an exciting start to Term One

LINKS OF THE DAY

COASTAL NAVIGATION: A review of coastal navigation safety by Maritime NZ has found that there is a sound framework in place to manage the movement of ships around the New Zealand coast, with measures in place to assess risk and adjust safety measures if required. The NZ Coastal Navigation Safety Review report can be read here:http://www.maritimenz.govt.nz/Consultation/Coastal-navigation/Coastal-navigational-safety-review-2015.pdf

CRIME COOPERATION REPORT: The Law Commission’s report on modernising New Zealand’s Extradition and Mutual Assistance laws was tabled in parliament today. Read more: http://www.lawcom.govt.nz

GUEST NIGHTS RISE: National guest nights for December 2015 were 6.2 percent higher than in December 2014, according to Statistics New Zealand. Click here for more: http://bit.ly/1SJ0LuW

INTERNATIONAL AWARDS: The New Zealand Government today received two international awards for the mobile apps ‘Force Fit’ and ‘Occupation Outlook’ at the annual World Government Summit in Dubai. More information about the World Government Summit can be found here: https://worldgovernmentsummit.org/summit/agenda-2016#1455076800

NATURAL RESOURCES REPORT: The Auditor-General’s report Principles for effectively co-governing natural resources was presented to the House of Representatives. Read more: http://www.oag.govt.nz/2016/co-governance?utm_source=subs&utm_medium=subs&utm_campaign=co-gov-environ

OECD EDUCATION REPORT: A new Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD) report says the likelihood of poor teens doing badly at school is higher in New Zealand than in almost all other OECD member nations. Read more: http://www.oecd.org/edu/low-performing-students-9789264250246-en.htm

TELECOMMUNICATIONS REPORT: The report, titled Telecommunications – Enabling New Zealand’s Future, was released today by the New Zealand Telecommunications Forum (TCF). It identifies that the sector is performing well above its international competitors in many ways. The report can be downloaded from:http://www.tcf.org.nz/news/6ea1f701-efa9-4e9f-8eb9-628497866e44.html?PathId=b5d6c297-b18b-42ea-8d8a-f191f98ee798

And that’s our sampling of “news you can use” for Thursday 11th February .

Brought to EveningReport by Newsroom Digest.

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Tony Alexander’s Weekly Overview February 11 2016

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Economic Analysis by BNZ’s Chief Economist Tony Alexander.

Thursday February 11th 2016

[caption id="attachment_3709" align="alignleft" width="150"]Tony Alexander, BNZ economist. Tony Alexander, BNZ economist.[/caption] Sharemarkets have fallen again this past week as investors find themselves with plenty of reasons for backing away from riskier assets. For some it is the fall in oil prices and resulting poor profit outlooks for businesses involved in the energy sector, expectations that sovereign funds of oil exporting countries will sell assets to offset revenue losses, and losses to be taken by banks which have lent to energy companies. For others it is worries about the still slowing pace of growth in China and the high risk that capital outflows from China’s millions of individuals and businesses will continue to rapidly deplete reserves and force a currency devaluation. This then would worsen deflation risks in other countries and pose more problems for central banks who are printing money and introducing negative interest rates yet failing to stimulate business investment. For still more it is the need for banks in Europe to raise more capital, Europe’s many problems more specifically, and if not that then worries about the Middle East, Korean Peninsula, spread of radical Islamism, and US monetary policy. Through all of this we are affected by downward pressure on commodity prices yet absence of a concomitant fall in the NZ dollar which has risen three US cents his past fortnight. This is because our economy is in far better structural, financial, and growth positions than most other economies. For the full analysis, keen reading below or click this link Download document (pdf 284kb).
So Many Problems Overseas Since the start of this year share prices around the world have fallen sharply, oil prices have tumbled taking prices for other commodities with them, the Bank of Japan has introduced a negative interest rate, the European Central Bank is expected to ease again soon, and expectations of four rate rises this year from the US Federal Reserve have evaporated. Why the turnaround in sentiment? There is no single factor accounting for the deepening heebie geebies but a gathering of many geographically dispersed things. An early trigger for the rout was the tightening of US monetary last year and uncertainty about what it would do and the risk that the Fed. might blindly continue to tighten regardless of current economic conditions. An underlying source of concern getting worse by the week now is weakness in China’s economy, evidence of massive excess housing and factory capacity, worries about debt levels, and a weakening yuan pushed downward by massive capital outflows which are steadily depleting China’s huge foreign currency reserves. Plus the lower the Yuan goes the cheaper Chinese products in foreign markets and the higher the risk of deflation in economies like Japan and the EU. Japan’s economy spluttered last year almost back into recession and faith in the efficacy of Prime Minister Abe’s Three Arrows policy (easy fiscal and monetary policies plus deregulation) has evaporated. The Bank of Japan is engaging in unlimited money printing, businesses and aging households don’t won’t to borrow more money, government debt grows still, and the BoJ is now charging banks 0.1% to deposit money overnight. Oil exporting economies are suffering badly because of the 70% fall in oil prices from 2014 levels, FX reserves are being run down, new taxes are being planned and subsidies targeted to be reined in, while unrest rises in the likes of Saudi Arabia. The Middle East is all but going up in flames in large portions and radical Islamism has taken hold in northern Africa. Prices of shares in energy sector stocks are tumbling and banks exposed to the broader energy sector are expected to take some hefty losses and hundreds of billions of dollars of planned investments in the energy sector have been scrapped. The same goes for investments in exploitation of resources of coal and iron ore. It is now also believed that sovereign funds of oil exporting countries are offsetting oil revenue losses by selling shares and thereby depressing global equity markets. The European Union remains afflicted with rigid economies, a poor banking sector now getting slammed on sharemarkets, fiscal problems, migration digestion pains, an aggressive Russian neighbour, weak business investment, and a failing deflation fight even with a -0.3% central bank deposit rate which looks likely to be cut again. Perversely, according to some analysts any further rate cuts in Europe may tighten monetary conditions rather than loosen them as banks raise lending rates to compensate for lost margins from overnight deposits with the ECB. This potentially self-defeating monetary policy is a bit like the theory that money printing during weak growth periods encourages rather than discourages deflation because extra money sloshing around means businesses stay open longer and keep flooding markets with their product and depressing prices. There is also a rerating of the global tech sector going on with talk of a repeat of the dotcom crash of the late-1990s. Share prices have fallen sharply for the likes of Netflix, Yahoo, LinkedIn, Twitter, Yelp, Facebook, Amazon, Fitbit, eBay, etc. Plus there are long-term lingering problems associated with the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Banks still need to raise more capital in Europe, hard core hard to change youth unemployment has worsened in Europe, fiscal and monetary buffers to use against any new shock are minor compared with capacity which existed in 2008, China’s excess construction of just about everything as they fought the GFC from 2009 has been mentioned above, productivity growth globally has declined and wages growth has stalled in most economies, restructuring problems and strikes persist in Greece and a new crisis there could easily erupt. And finally, following the major concerns of US monetary policy, China and oil, we now have major worries about banks overseas. On top of worries about bank losses from lending to the energy sector and emerging markets are concerns about negative central bank deposit rates hitting margins, difficulties in finding capital to meet strengthening capitalisation requirements, continuing investigations of irregularities pre- and postGFC, and now flattening yield curves in the United States slashing profits from the traditional borrow short/lend long strategy. In coming weeks we will see central bankers and government ministers increasingly acknowledge the risk to their economies and inflation forecasts from global woes and proposals will be mad to try and boost growth and inflation. But quick macro policy changes will not alter the new economics of the oil and wider energy sector, will not hasten China’s transition to a consumption-driven economy and make debt and capacity problems disappear overnight, or compensate for the failure of European countries to open their economies up and stop ongoing reliance upon temporary stimulatory packages to boost declining trend growth rates. Yet as pointed out not just all last year but since 2009 in terms of ourselves being less munted in New Zealand during and following the GFC, we have a highly deregulated economy will positioned to adjust itself to unpredictable shocks and a set of special growth supporting factors. These factors include high migration which is highly likely to continue as the one million Kiwis offshore compare what is happening around themselves with good stories from NZ. Hopefully people in the regions realise that with the combination of massive net migration inflows and Auckland’s high house prices they have a perhaps once in a lifetime opportunity to boost populations quickly in their towns. We have a construction boom set to last a number of years, stretched out partly by a shortage of tradespeople. We may have a dairying sector adjusting to the other 99.8% of the world’s population realising rising Asian incomes means higher milk demand thus boosting their own production, but we are seeing in our farming sector what we have always seen – diversification to new profitable areas. These include not just wine which now brings in $1.5bn in FX earnings a year, but honey exports now worth what wine was worth in 2002 – $300mn – and farmers planting hillsides in manuka. Tourism is booming as is the foreign education sector, and unlike in other countries businesses in New Zealand are willing to invest in new plant and equipment with such investment intentions at well above average levels. Auckland is becoming an international city attractive to the highly talented people needed to boost technology developments and their implementation. The relatively good position we find ourselves in means there will remain strong support for the Kiwi dollar and exporters should give thought to boosting hedging on dips toward 60 cents every few months. Borrowers face so benign an environment it is difficult to describe. And with a cash rate of 2.5% scope exists to cut rates should the world’s woes hit our shores more forcefully. House prices will keep rising in response to low debt servicing costs, strong population growth, investors searching for higher yielding assets, and shortages in some locations. Employers will continue to struggle to find the staff they want even with the net migration boom and while some may leave Auckland for lower occupancy and transport costs, others will shift there to access the staff pool and 1.5mn potential customers with a growth rate twice the rest of the country. What is our biggest risk? Not the Auckland housing market having a big correction as so many people have badly predicted for many years now through lack of understanding what the market’s prime drivers are. (The shortage gets worse every day.) China is our big risk, not just because we get 19% of our merchandise export receipts from there, but because everyone else we trade with has hefty exposures also to the Chinese economy. Housing Part of the story for the NZ housing market at the moment is Auckland stepping back as investors have been scared away by a 30% deposit requirement, IRD number and bank account rule, two year bright line test for capital gains, on top of low yields encouraging investors to look elsewhere. The withdrawal of investors for now is providing space for owner occupiers to step in but they are only arriving in limited numbers so turnover in the three months to January in Auckland was down 15.8% from a year earlier. Prices meanwhile on average have fallen by 3.8% to sit 11.5% up from a year earlier. This is a decent giveback after prices in the previous three quarters on average rose by 3.8%, 6.1%, and 8.0%. Will this fall in Auckland prices continue? In the short-term maybe. But the fundamentals for Auckland argue in favour of prices steadying then rising again though not remotely at the 25% annual pace of mid-2015. These fundamentals centre around a booming population growing near 3% per annum but the existing housing shortage still worsening because construction is well below levels required. In the regions things are quite different. In the three months to January turnover in Northland was ahead 48% from a year ago, Waikato/Bay of Plenty 32%, Hawkes Bay 32%, Central Otago Lakes 24%, Taranaki 21%, and Southland 18%. And prices in the past three months have risen respectively 1.6%, 4%, 6.7%, 10.4%, 5.2%, but they have fallen 1.1% in Southland. Note that these price measures, included in the following graph, are not adjusted for changes in the type of houses being sold whereas the Auckland numbers above are from adjusted data. Auckland’s unadjusted three month change was a fall of just 0.2%. This regional strength is likely to continue all year given the low interest rate environment and the Reserve Bank may feel it necessary to slow things down with a 30% deposit requirement though that is a 50:50 call at this stage. NZ Dollar The NZ dollar this afternoon was trading near US67 cents from 66.8 one week ago and 64.4 two weeks ago. Similar movement has been made upward against the Australian dollar to 94 cents, lesser gains against the Euro and Pound, and no gain against the Yen. This latter development reflects the Yen rising in spite of the cut in the Bank of Japan’s deposit rate to -0.1% a fortnight ago because the bout of nervousness gripping investors around the world has led to buying of the Yen as a save haven. And yet, in the past when such nervousness appeared the NZD would invariably suffer as well. That is not happening now. The NZD is holding up and in fact even stronger than it was before the most recent 7.4% fall in global dairy prices. Why the disconnect? Because New Zealand stands out very well as a good performer at a time when the rest of the world has so, so many problems. Our fiscal accounts are good, non-dairy exports are strong, construction is booming, migration is stellar, and our cash rate of 2.5% is well above rates elsewhere. This then goes to illustrate our key currency point – the NZD is well supported and it is not reasonable to expect that any bouts of weakness will prove long-lived. If I Were A Borrower What Would I Do? Wholesale interest rates have fallen over the past week spurred downward by the cutting of Japan’s deposit rate to -0.1% and fall of Japanese ten year government bond yields below 0% for the first time ever, new falls in oil prices assisted by the International Energy Agency lifting its estimate of excess production, more declines in share prices centred around tech, energy, and banking stocks, and growing worries that the world economy is in for a decent downturn. The one year swap rate here in NZ has fallen to near 2.60% from 2.65% last week and 2.75% one month ago, and the five year rate to near 2.86% from 2.93% and 3.16% respectively. Does this mean bank fixed lending rates are going to fall sharply? Not as much as you might think because one of the things happening offshore is that as investors worry about everything around them they are increasingly worried about the profitability of banks in Europe. This has led to a general shying away from funding banks in general around the world meaning we NZ and Australian banks are having to pay more to get our offshore funding. We raise funds in foreign currencies at foreign market interest rates and swap that money back into NZ dollars with the cost of the swap to remove exchange rate risk effectively raising the interest rates we pay to NZ levels from foreign levels. So no, we do not raise cheap money offshore to lend for big margins in NZ. The only way you can do that is to not hedge away the risk of exchange rate movements and that would be a very stupid thing to do in stable times let alone the increasingly unpredictable risky environment we live in nowadays. For Noting Nada.
The Weekly Overview is written by Tony Alexander, Chief Economist at the Bank of New Zealand. The views expressed are my own and do not purport to represent the views of the BNZ. To receive the Weekly Overview each Thursday night please sign up at www.tonyalexander.co.nz To change your address or unsubscribe please click the link at the bottom of your email. Tony.alexander@bnz.co.nz
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Across The Ditch: Cyclone Looms + Kody Nielson Kisses a Cop Gun + NZ Cricket’s Winning Ways

ACROSS THE DITCH: Peter Godfrey of Australia radio’s FiveAA.com.au joins Selwyn Manning of EveningReport.nz to deliver Across the Ditch. This week Peter and Selwyn discuss: CYCLONE SEASON + KODY NIELSON’S LANEWAY ANTICS + NZ BEATING AUSTRALIA IN THE ODI CRICKET! CYCLONE SEASON: There’s another big cyclone forming in the Pacific north of New Zealand, getting its energy from the warm waters around Vanuatu. WeatherWatch.co.nz is saying the burgeoning cyclone is on track to clobber New Zealand. It certainly feels like cyclone season in Auckland and Northland at the moment, it’s humid, sticky, and the sea and air temperatures are warm, just what a cyclone needs to sustain its power as it moves southward toward the country. ADELAIDE’S LANEWAY FESTIVAL CONTROVERSY: Controversy at Adelaide’s Laneway Festival with former Mint Chick’s performer Kody Nielson kissing a cop’s gun. Kody Nielson was the powerhouse behind The Mint Chicks, which has won big at the NZ Music Awards in 2007 and 2009. The band broke up in 2010, since then he’s had a few incarnations, most recently performing solo under his Silicon handle. His stage performances have always been controversial, like when the Mint Chicks played the Big Day Out festival way back in 2005, Kody revved up a chainsaw on stage and tore up one of the sponsor banners. That wasn’t unusual for the Mint Chicks. Wikipedia.org records the onstage antics as including: Kody and his brother Ruban Nielson have been known to climb P.A. stacks, hang from lighting rigs, destroy guitars, engage in self-harm and even attack the stage with a chainsaw. All in the name of stage rock theatre. Sounds like Kody saw an opportunity for controversy. His message, questioning why there were so many weapons (carried by Police) at the festival, was likely a mix of his politics and controversial flare. NEW ZEALAND CRICKET’S WINNING WAYS: The rise and rise of the winning Kiwi Blackcaps Cricket team. It’s the big news here with another BIG WIN for New Zealand over Australia in the Chappell-Hadley one-day-international series. And it was always going to be controversial! But now… is NZ good enough to beat you guys seriously… in a Cricket Test series? We will soon find out… The first of the two test series begin on Friday at Wellington’s Basin Reserve. The second will be held in Christchurch at the Hagley Oval on February 20… Across the Ditch is broadcast live on Australia radio FiveAA.com.au and webcasts on EveningReport.nz LiveNews.co.nz and ForeignAffairs.co.nz.]]>

NewsRoom Digest: Top NZ News Items for February 10 Edition, 2016

Newsroom Digest

Today’s edition of NewsRoom_Digest features 5 resourceful link of the day and the politics pulse from Wednesday 10th February. It is best viewed on a desktop screen.

NEWSROOM_MONITOR

Noteworthy stories in the current news cycle include the Ministry of Social Development monitoring social media to catch beneficiaries who are defrauding the system – with the Privacy Commissioner saying that departments should verify any information they glean from social media, and the Ministry of Education saying a refit of its building in Wellington will save $27 million over the next 15 years.

POLITICS PULSE

Media releases issued from Parliament by political parties today 

included:

Government: New PGP programme to boost wool industry;Digital medical certificates make system simpler; Aviation and maritime safety strengthened; Government must reinforce fishery officers; Chinese New Year celebration at Parliament; Government Urban Cycleways Providing More Choice; Patents Bill passes first reading; Registrations open for TPP roadshows

Greens: Govt needs to restore confidence in fisheries management; ECan are failing the farmers who have done the right thing

Labour: Big bill for CERA spin doctors; Concierge and plaza for ministry staff – leaky, mouldy classrooms for kids; Police Commissioner doesn’t get force needs; Ministers with free degrees hypocritical

New Zealand First: Action Needed Over Woeful Tourist Driving

LINKS OF THE DAY

AVIATION AND MARITIME SAFETY: The introduction of random testing in the commercial aviation and maritime sectors to help tackle drug and alcohol impairment was launched today. For more information:http://www.transport.govt.nz/ourwork/clear-heads/questions-and-answers

CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE: Over 200 people will gather at Victoria University of Wellington next week to take part in the University’s landmark Pacific Climate Change Conference. The conference, ‘In The Eye of the Storm’, draws together experts across business, science, law, media and the arts to explore the effects, challenges and possible solutions to climate change in the Pacific.Read more: http://www.victoria.ac.nz/vicpasifika/our-community/events/climate-conference

RETAIL CARD SPENDING UP: Retail spending using electronic cards was $4.9 billion in January 2016, up $238 million (5.2 percent) from January 2015, according to Statistics New Zealand. Read more: http://bit.ly/1T5H66y

TPP ROADSHOWS: The Government will be running nation-wide roadshows on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The roadshows are for interested members of the public to learn more about this important trade agreement, and to assist businesses identify and plan for new export opportunities when TPP comes into force. Registrations are now open for the first four roadshows at: http://www.tpp.mfat.govt.nz/events

UNFAIR TELCO SECTOR CONTRACT: The Commerce Commission has today released a report detailing the findings of its review of standard form consumer contracts in the telecommunications sector. Click here for more:http://www.comcom.govt.nz/the-commission/consumer-reports/uct-teleco/

And that’s our sampling of “news you can use” for Wednesday 10th February .

Brought to EveningReport by Newsroom Digest.

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NewsRoom Digest: Top NZ News Items for February 9 Edition, 2016

Newsroom Digest

Today’s edition of NewsRoom_Digest features 5 resourceful link of the day and the politics pulse from Tuesday 9th February. It is best viewed on a desktop screen.

NEWSROOM_MONITOR

Noteworthy stories in the current news cycle include the Prime Minister saying the government is not considering introducing a health surcharge for visitors from the United Kingdom, despite a new charge for Kiwis in Britain; and the housing market showing further signs of levelling out, with the national median and Auckland region prices falling slightly in the latest Quotable Value (QV) monthly data.

POLITICS PULSE

Media releases issued from Parliament by political parties today 

included:

Government: Minister marks Safer Internet Day; TPP presented for treaty examination;NZ Condemns North Korea rocket launch; McClay visits Europe to progress EU-NZ FTA; Brownlee attending Counter-Daesh meeting;Minister welcomes interim Tribunal report; Encouraging immunisation for older children

Greens: Commencement Debate Speech- James Shaw;James Shaw’s speech to the New Zealand Council of Trade Unions; National off-side with business over agriculture

Labour: Talley’s first to attempt to flout Mondayisation; Government should give more than a little; Government disregard for Waitangi Tribunal

New Zealand First: West Coast Hospital Not A Government Priority; Super Bowl Screens Live On Free-To-Air TV But Not Kiwi Sports; PM And Minister Allowed To Duck For Cover

LINKS OF THE DAY

CHILD INJURIES DECLINING: According to Safekids Aotearoa’s recently released report Child Unintentional Deaths and Injuries in New Zealand, and Prevention Strategies, overall unintentional injury death rates have declined by 19% between 2001 and 2010. Read more: http://www.safekids.nz/Resources/ProdID/134/CatID/5

OCCUPATIONAL OUTLOOK REPORT: The 2016 Occupation Outlook report and mobile app shows that job prospects continue to be very good in highly skilled, fast growing industries such as high-tech manufacturing and ICT. More details at; http://www.mbie.govt.nz/info-services/employment-skills/labour-market-reports/occupation-outlook

PROPERTY PRICES DECREASE: The latest monthly QV House Price Index shows that nationwide residential property values for January have decreased by 0.3% over the past month. Read information at:https://www.qv.co.nz/resources/property-trends

SAFER INTERNET DAY: Safer Internet Day (SID) is organised by Insafe in February of each year to promote safer and more responsible use of online technology and mobile phones, especially among children and young people across the world. Read more: https://www.saferinternetday.org/

SPECIAL EDUCATION NEEDS: NZEI TE Riu Roa is warning that thousands of children will be missing out on equal access to quality education this year because of a lack of resourcing for students with special education needs. The institute has just published its survey of Special Education Needs Co-ordinators (SENCOs) in schools. Read more:http://www.standupforkids.org.nz/supporting-diverse-learners/

And that’s our sampling of “news you can use” for Tuesday 9th February .

Brought to EveningReport by Newsroom Digest.

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