Independent Analysis and Reportage
Keith Rankin writes; My guess is that, if National does get to form a government (after the 2026 election) despite having no list MPs, then David Seymour will be insisting on becoming Minister of Finance. Or Shane Jones? New Zealand First might have more leverage than Act.
Keith Rankin writes; New Zealand's working-age population is in flux. Good for the international airlines which fly to Aotearoa, but potentially very difficult for the making of social policy. Mind you, if the policymakers don't really know about these dramatically fluctuating demographics, then they will be blissfully unaware of the difficulties which they face.
Keith Rankin writes; New Zealand's policy elites – including certain journalists at RNZ – have been responding to what is happening in the economy like possums struck by the glare of SUV headlights in full beam. And New Zealand's non-policy non-elites have little response other than to go – quietly (in most cases) – mad...
Keith Rankin writes; Neither Moscow nor Kyiv is in a situation like Japan was in July 1945; though Kyiv may yet end up in such a situation. I can see no scenario in which Moscow would ever surrender to either Kyiv, Berlin, Brussels, or Washington...
Keith Rankin writes; January 1956: "In a famous interview with Life magazine, Dulles formalized his philosophy of 'Brinkmanship', boasting that intentionally pushing the Soviet Union and China to the very verge of nuclear war was a 'necessary art' to secure peace." Is such Dulles-style brinkmanship Nato's present doctrine against Russia?
Keith Rankin writes; In 2026 we chatter more about interest rates and government debt, and talk as if misframed 'inflation' is the biggest threat of all. Such macroeconomist micro-doom chatter is largely an aggravating displacement activity, prose we can cite if or when we – rich as well as poor – go down with our own Homeric Titanic...
Keith Rankin writes; If we think of actual nuclear explosions – especially atmospheric ones – they have predominantly been in Oceania; in four sites which form something of a spoke-wheel around Auckland...
Keith Rankin writes; Ever since the Soviet Union gained the 'atomic bomb' in 1949, the argument among geopoliticians has been that an edgy global 'peace' has been maintained by virtue of the principle of deterrence... That principle has broken down...
Keith Rankin writes; Hipkins would be better served to address the point actually being made by Shane Jones. Was Luxon's behaviour sufficiently deferential to convey vassalage towards India? Was it as deferential as Mark Rutte calling Donald Trump "Daddy"?
Keith Rankin writes: Andy Burnham is popular because he's seen as a plausible, indeed charismatic, political leader with sound albeit moderate social-democratic credentials. Yet almost all the television coverage I have seen about him focuses on domestic socio-economic and regional governance policy; none of that coverage has focussed on fiscal policy...
Keith Rankin writes: ... when older people are (for purely economic reasons) added workers clinging onto jobs which they would rather retire from, then they are simply blocking the employment pipeline – gumming up the works – and contributing to the difficulties being faced in making young people productive.
Keith Rankin writes: We know from medical science that many conditions come right – heal themselves, without treatment – after a certain amount of time. This is true for many pathogen-caused conditions, which are resolved by the immune system... Economic ailments can be similar.