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March 31, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin While, United States’ local data on Covid19 is more readily available than for other countries, the American ‘county’ system of local governance is way out of date and often does not well represent urban conglomerations. Doing my best from the available data, I constructed the following chart yesterday evening, and will ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: United States’ Deaths as at 29 March 2020" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/03/31/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid19-united-states-deaths-as-at-29-march-2020/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: United States’ Deaths as at 29 March 2020">Read more</a>
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March 30, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin To get a correct picture, we need regional data – indeed sub-regional statistics – because the virus does not respect political boundaries. Unfortunately, it is very hard to get regional data from European countries. The Johns Hopkins data – most widely used by the media (and used in this chart) – ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: Deaths as at 29 March 2020" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/03/30/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid19-deaths-as-at-29-march-2020/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: Deaths as at 29 March 2020">Read more</a>
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March 27, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin Australian cases have been on an exponent growth path since late February, with no remission yet in sight. The good news is that infection rates remain well below western European levels. The bad news is that death rates – hitherto very low – are accelerating. Indeed Victoria, running with a similar ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid-19 Virus: Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the World" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/03/27/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid-19-virus-australia-canada-new-zealand-the-world/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid-19 Virus: Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the World">Read more</a>
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March 27, 2020
Keith Rankin on Malthusian checks The 2020 Coronavirus Pandemic has all the visible hallmarks of a Malthusian pestilence, a necessary positive check visited upon an over‑abundant humanity. Indeed, that is a likely future interpretation of this event. It’s an important perspective which should be treated with both understanding and caution. I heard two academic examples ... <a title="Keith Rankin Essay: Coronavirus – a Malthusian Event?" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/03/27/keith-rankin-essay-coronavirus-a-malthusian-event/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Essay: Coronavirus – a Malthusian Event?">Read more</a>
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March 26, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin In today’s first chart, which excludes countries with a single death, only Iran features as a country outside of Western Europe. In Europe, worst hit is the ‘Latin’ group in the southwest. I include Switzerland here, which has large Italian‑speaking and French‑speaking components. Next are the Benelux countries – Netherlands, Belgium ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid-19 Virus: Countries with Highest Death Rates" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/03/26/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid-19-virus-countries-with-highest-death-rates/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid-19 Virus: Countries with Highest Death Rates">Read more</a>
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March 25, 2020
By Keith Rankin I keep hearing rather unfortunate ‘expert’ comments in response to questions asked about Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a way of responding to the Covid‑19 economic contraction. These comments all relate to a ‘straw man’ concept of UBI that is obviously unaffordable and impractical. It is not possible to offer any kind ... <a title="Economics: Keith Rankin on Universal Basic Income and Covid‑19" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/03/25/economics-keith-rankin-on-universal-basic-income-and-covid%e2%80%9119/" aria-label="Read more about Economics: Keith Rankin on Universal Basic Income and Covid‑19">Read more</a>
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March 25, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin In today’s first chart, of daily new cases in Italy and Scandinavia (Norway, Sweden, Denmark), we see that, at its peak in days 20 and 21 (March 10 and 11), the incidence of known new cases in Scandinavia matched that in Italy. The difference is that new cases stabilised immediately afterwards ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – COVID-19: Exponential Growth in Italy and Scandinavia" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/03/25/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid-19-exponential-growth-in-italy-and-scandinavia/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – COVID-19: Exponential Growth in Italy and Scandinavia">Read more</a>
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March 24, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin The USA has been on a consisted exponential growth path since day 11 (March 1). Italian Covid‑19 incidence levels – currently just over 8,000 known cases per 10 million people on 23 March – will be reached in the United States by day 39 (Sunday, March 29) if there is no ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid-19 Virus: Exponential Growth in United States and United Kingdom" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/03/24/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid-19-virus-exponential-growth-in-united-states-and-united-kingdom/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid-19 Virus: Exponential Growth in United States and United Kingdom">Read more</a>
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March 23, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin. The two charts here are presented using a ‘logarithmic’ scale. This is the appropriate way of representing any data time series that would normally exhibit exponential growth. ‘Exponential growth’ means that normal growth is measured in percentage terms rather than actual numbers. Common measures that grow exponentially are consumer prices (this ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid-19 Virus: Slowing Exponential Growth in Italy" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/03/23/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid-19-virus-slowing-exponential-growth-in-italy/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid-19 Virus: Slowing Exponential Growth in Italy">Read more</a>
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March 22, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin. While the number of cases of Covid-19 remains very small relative to the world’s population, a number of prominent people have been caught up in it. It seems to be very much an international travellers’ disease, with people who travel the most being at highest risk. The highest incidences of Covid‑19 ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid-19 Virus: A Jetsetter Disease?" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/03/22/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid-19-virus-a-jetsetter-disease/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid-19 Virus: A Jetsetter Disease?">Read more</a>
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March 17, 2020
This chart shows the extent that the initial Chinese outbreak of Covid-19 was confined to Hubei province, a province with a population similar to that of Italy. And it shows that, while Hubei still has more recorded deaths per capita than Italy, Italy has more than twice as many active (unrecovered) cases per person. Italy’s ... <a title="Keith Rankin Graph Analysis – Covid-19 Virus: West is Worst" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/03/17/keith-rankin-graph-analysis-covid-19-virus-west-is-worst/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Graph Analysis – Covid-19 Virus: West is Worst">Read more</a>
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March 12, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin Will there be a resumption of normality? For a few weeks now, awareness has been growing that the global economic consequences of the Covid19 epidemic (that WHO today notes has “characteristics of a pandemic”) may be greater than the medical consequences, even if the European death rates fail to level‑off, even if ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Economic Emergency 2020" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/03/12/keith-rankin-analysis-economic-emergency-2020/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Economic Emergency 2020">Read more</a>
