Independent Analysis and Reportage
Keith Rankin writes; What's the chance that an elite rugby player will drop the ball in a high stakes' game? One in ten maybe? Would anyone choose to play elite sport if they had a one-in-ten chance of (literally) eliminating themselves and their opponent? I guess the Roman gladiators took those kinds of chances; but they typically did not have the option to choose.
Keith Rankin writes; The present New Zealand government is arguably the most hawkish that this country has ever had; and the economists who influence policymaking are also unusually hawkish at present... The only contenders for a more hawkish previous government would be the National Government of 1990 to 1993, and the Reform-United Coalition Government in 1931 and 1932.
Keith Rankin writes; My key point is that a nuclear apocalypse would be more than a single-species suicide: it could be a murder-suicide that would destroy all life on Earth; indeed all life in the Universe if Earth is the only place with life. So, could an AI holocaust be a good thing? The answer has to be 'yes', if AI gets there first, killing only all humans and not all life.
Germany is a country undergoing societal collapse – as in the Great Depression of 1930 to 1933 – and which is only keeping its economy 'above-water' by resorting to militarism. In the 1930s, the liberals failed big-time, and the population turned to the far-right for solutions. This time, it looks like the failing 'liberals' may be morphing into a new-far-right. The SPD – Germany's equivalent of New Zealand's Labour Party – is becoming increasingly irrelevant in the process.
Keith Rankin writes; Our present generation of political leaders seem to find the known truth – the known knowns – a source of political tension and defensiveness. The reason that they don't have the skills to negotiate facts when challenged is probably because the corporate media has hitherto done a particularly inadequate job of challenging them.
Keith Rankin writes; There is simply no evidence that fighting a general inflation with high interest rates works, or that any of the inflations in western capitalist countries this decade have been defeated by higher Bank interest rates.
Keith Rankin writes; New Zealand property market booms have never been driven by low interest rates compelling people to buy real estate. Rather, loanable funds have gone into real estate in large amounts when there was a lack of other compelling destinations for those funds; and when governments were reluctant borrowers despite a huge availability of loanable funds at favourable interest rates.
Keith Rankin writes; I see the two most probable outcomes for government in 2027 as a New Zealand version of the present reactionary-centrist German government, or a cautiously-radical pro-capitalist centre-left government in which the Greens and Opportunity together can inject a bit of spine and vision into Labour.
Keith Rankin writes; While New Zealand today may be seeing rising numbers of older people, it is also seeing significantly higher total numbers of teenagers. Indeed, unlike many other countries with majority European or East-Asian populations, New Zealand should continue to have a proportionately adequate working-age population.
Keith Rankin writes; ... it is hard to get a firm measure of true unemployment; of the gap between labour supply and labour demand. A measure of untapped labour. Conceptually, the best measure of unemployment is to subtract hours worked from hours offered, and then to get a percentage by dividing by hours offered.
Keith Rankin writes; Universal Basic Income... Opportunity presents its particular policy for a universal basic income (UBI, or 'Citizens Income' as they call it) as an aspiration; as a basis for public discussion and not as a scheme to be imposed on those people who push-back from engagement with the concept.
Keith Rankin writes; this from Stuff reporter Molly Swift on Three News yesterday (12 August 2026): "History shows that replacing a sitting prime minister in an election year doesn't end well. The only time it has worked was in 1943 after Michael Joseph Savage died in office, and Peter Fraser took over." - Michael Joseph Savage actually died in March 1940, not 1943.