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May 11, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Today’s chart shows (in grey) the estimated impact of Covid-19 on mortality rates in the selected countries. For most of these countries, the ‘excess death’ procedure provides an estimate of underreporting in underreporting countries compared to those with the most comprehensive reporting. Some of these extra deaths may have occurred as ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Estimating the true death tolls from Covid19" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/05/11/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-estimating-the-true-death-tolls-from-covid19/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Estimating the true death tolls from Covid19">Read more</a>
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May 8, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin. This chart shows four recovering countries, including two of the first major outbreaks after China (South Korea and Italy), and the putative Australasian bubble. The chart shows daily average new cases, using seven-day rolling averages. Thus Italy is approaching 2000 new cases a day per 100 million people. Because Italy has ... <a title="Keith Rankin’s Chart Analysis – Covid19: Long Tail and Long Head" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/05/08/keith-rankins-chart-analysis-covid19-long-tail-and-long-head/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin’s Chart Analysis – Covid19: Long Tail and Long Head">Read more</a>
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May 7, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin. “We are borrowing tens of billions of dollars from our children and grandchildren to get us through the Covid crisis…”. (James Shaw in interview on Radio New Zealand’s Nine to Noon, 23 April 2020) Debtors and Creditors Literally, for me to be in debt to somebody means that the ‘somebody’ (the ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Can our Grandchildren be our Creditors?" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/05/07/keith-rankin-analysis-can-our-grandchildren-be-our-creditors/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Can our Grandchildren be our Creditors?">Read more</a>
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May 5, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Surviving the Black Flu It has been interesting for me to look back and investigate the Black Flu pandemic of 1918. The 1918 pandemic is widely regarded to have been the world’s worst pandemic since the Black Death of the late 1340s. (It was commonly known as the ‘Spanish Flu’, but this ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Smart Treatments in a Pandemic; Lessons from the Black Flu" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/05/05/keith-rankin-analysis-smart-treatments-in-a-pandemic-lessons-from-the-black-flu/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Smart Treatments in a Pandemic; Lessons from the Black Flu">Read more</a>
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May 4, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin. These two charts show the total number of cases and deaths, by country, over the seven days ended 2 May 2020. In these charts a number of countries with populations below 50,000 have been omitted; countries which have shown in earlier charts. The first chart is sequenced by death rates (orange). ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: New Cases and Casualties" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/05/04/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid19-new-cases-and-casualties/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: New Cases and Casualties">Read more</a>
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May 1, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin. At the end of this week, I have represented the latest summary charts with a log 10 scale, rather than the previous log 2 scale. This means that, as well as accurately showing the exponential growth pattern, the charts now emphasise ten-fold increases of Covid19 fatalities. At the top of the ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: April Summary Charts" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/05/01/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid19-april-summary-charts/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: April Summary Charts">Read more</a>
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April 30, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Fact Checking On Mondays – or Tuesdays after public holidays – National Radio’s Kathryn Ryan runs a session called ‘Political Commentators’. On 28 April, from the right was regular commentator Matthew Hooton. From the left was Neal Jones who is listed as: “Chief of Staff to Labour Leader Jacinda Ardern, and prior ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Universal Income Flat Tax: the Mechanism that Makes the Necessary Possible" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/04/30/keith-rankin-analysis-universal-income-flat-tax-the-mechanism-that-makes-the-necessary-possible/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Universal Income Flat Tax: the Mechanism that Makes the Necessary Possible">Read more</a>
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April 29, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin. At the end of last month I published a chart showing the main features of Covid19 deaths in the United States. Today I publish an update, which has most of the same American places. At the end of last month, New Orleans (125 deaths per million people) had the worst outbreak, ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: United States’ Update" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/04/29/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid19-united-states-update/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: United States’ Update">Read more</a>
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April 28, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Predictions It is dangerous to predict how pandemics will pan out. In Covid19 by the Numbers, Anatole Kaletsky (writing for Project Syndicate on 10 March 2020) used what looked like advanced analysis to conclude that at most 750,000 outside of China would contract Covid19. (He admitted he was wide of the ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Will Covid-19 remain a First-World Disease?" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/04/28/keith-rankin-analysis-will-covid-19-remain-a-first-world-disease/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Will Covid-19 remain a First-World Disease?">Read more</a>
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April 24, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Today’s Anzac Day Smithometer Chart shows the fatal impact in New Zealand of World War 1 battles at Gallipoli and on the Somme in France. (Earlier this week the Smithometer showed the impact of 1917 WW1 battles in Belgium – Messines and Passchendaele – and the dramatic, though short-lived, impact of ... <a title="Keith Rankin’s Chart Analysis – Smithometer: New Zealand’s World War 1 Mortality Peaks 1915-16" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/04/24/keith-rankins-chart-analysis-smithometer-new-zealands-world-war-1-mortality-peaks-1915-16/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin’s Chart Analysis – Smithometer: New Zealand’s World War 1 Mortality Peaks 1915-16">Read more</a>
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April 23, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin. The System – The Whole Good systemic behaviour is acting for the good of all, not by making altruistic sacrifices but by following the golden rule (“behave towards others as you would have them behave towards you”). Or put another way, by acting to strengthen the whole, in the process we ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Systemic Behaviour, and the Challenges of the 2020s" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/04/23/keith-rankin-analysis-systemic-behaviour-and-the-challenges-of-the-2020s/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Systemic Behaviour, and the Challenges of the 2020s">Read more</a>
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April 21, 2020
Analysis by Keith Rankin Today’s chart looks back to the years 1917 to 1920, using a sampling device I call the ‘Smithometer’. I have counted the weekly deaths of all people named Smith, from the beginning of 1917 to the end of 1920. At that time New Zealand was a country of 1.2 million people. ... <a title="Keith Rankin’s Chart Analysis – The Smithometer: New Zealand’s mortality during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2020/04/21/keith-rankins-chart-analysis-the-smithometer-new-zealands-mortality-during-the-1918-influenza-pandemic/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin’s Chart Analysis – The Smithometer: New Zealand’s mortality during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic">Read more</a>
