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October 8, 2021
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Russia is a former superpower with a long tradition of scientific achievement. It remains the world’s second largest nuclear power. Yet pre-covid life expectancy in Russia was just 72.6, and Russia has a higher median population than New Zealand, despite having comparatively few people aged over 80. The Russian people have ... <a title="Covid19 Impact: Four Countries of Interest Russia, Serbia, Ireland, Japan" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/10/08/covid19-impact-four-countries-of-interest-russia-serbia-ireland-japan/" aria-label="Read more about Covid19 Impact: Four Countries of Interest Russia, Serbia, Ireland, Japan">Read more</a>
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October 6, 2021
Analysis by Keith Rankin. The first thing to note – some good news – is that the sixth wave of Covid19 is on the wane. For the first wave, see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/. In particular, look at ‘Active Cases’ in China. For the following five waves of Covid19, see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/. In particular, look at World ‘Daily Deaths’. ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19 Global Clusters at the end of September 2021" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/10/06/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid19-global-clusters-at-the-end-of-september-2021/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19 Global Clusters at the end of September 2021">Read more</a>
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September 30, 2021
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Quiz Questions: Which foreign country or territory is closest to New Zealand by jetplane? Which foreign country or territory had the world’s highest per capita incidence of Covid19 last week? Before giving the answers, I would note that the worst-affected region of the world in September 2021 is the Caribbean, from ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Covid Immunity Calculus" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/09/30/keith-rankin-analysis-covid-immunity-calculus/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Covid Immunity Calculus">Read more</a>
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September 24, 2021
Data and Analysis by Keith Rankin. The table below uses raw-death data published downloaded from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-death-count to predict what death numbers would have occurred in 2020 and 2021 had there been no Covid19 pandemic. The actual death numbers are compared with the predicted (counterfactual) numbers to calculated excess deaths. These countries are sorted from the ... <a title="Keith Rankin Data Analysis – Table of Excess Deaths from Covid19" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/09/24/keith-rankin-data-analysis-table-of-excess-deaths-from-covid19/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Data Analysis – Table of Excess Deaths from Covid19">Read more</a>
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September 21, 2021
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Radio New Zealand (Checkpoint) ran stories last week about New Zealanders aged over 65 stranded in Australia who are at risk of having their pensions (‘New Zealand Superannuation’)stopped, and then having to repay the funds they received while in Australia. There is a simple solution to the problem – to just ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – New Zealand Superannuation: The Rules versus Common Sense" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/09/21/keith-rankin-analysis-new-zealand-superannuation-the-rules-versus-common-sense/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – New Zealand Superannuation: The Rules versus Common Sense">Read more</a>
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September 13, 2021
Essay by Keith Rankin. New Zealand is under siege from Covid19. We can learn some things from medieval city sieges. A traditional siege takes place in a fortress, and the besieging agent waits outside the wall or the moat. The defenders also waited, in a battle of attrition; they won if the besieging attackers went ... <a title="Keith Rankin Essay – Breaking NZ’s Covid Siege: What Needs to be Done, and When" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/09/13/keith-rankin-essay-breaking-nzs-covid-siege-what-needs-to-be-done-and-when/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Essay – Breaking NZ’s Covid Siege: What Needs to be Done, and When">Read more</a>
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September 9, 2021
Asia Pacific Report newsdesk France has declared a health emergency in New Caledonia after covid-19 was detected in the community, RNZ Pacific reports. The state of emergency was decreed by the French Prime Minister Jean Castex, effective immediately. The decree, which is valid for a month, allows the authorities to impose restrictions, such as curfews ... <a title="France declares covid-19 emergency in New Caledonia as cases surge to 66" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/09/09/france-declares-covid-19-emergency-in-new-caledonia-as-cases-surge-to-66/" aria-label="Read more about France declares covid-19 emergency in New Caledonia as cases surge to 66">Read more</a>
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September 8, 2021
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Public Health measures are restrictive ‘health’ imposts by an authority over some or all of the people subject to that authority. In most cases they are both ‘merit goods’ (having benefits which people ought to be willing to pay for), and ‘public goods’ (goods whose benefits are shared). Quarantine may be ... <a title="Keith Rankin Essay – Quarantine, an effective temporary Public Health measure" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/09/08/keith-rankin-essay-quarantine-an-effective-temporary-public-health-measure/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Essay – Quarantine, an effective temporary Public Health measure">Read more</a>
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September 3, 2021
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Dynamic living processes get into feedback loops. The most common is a negative feedback loop, whereby processes self-regulate; when something happens then something else happens, in response, to offset the initial event. If it gets cold, we put on another layer of clothing. If a consumer good becomes scarce, its price ... <a title="Keith Rankin Essay – Pandemic Feedback" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/09/03/keith-rankin-essay-pandemic-feedback/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Essay – Pandemic Feedback">Read more</a>
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September 1, 2021
Analysis by Keith Rankin. The first two charts show official case numbers and deaths, for all countries, including the little countries that tend to dominate in the peak of the northern summer holiday season. Chart 1 shows the countries with the highest case numbers per person – from French Polynesia (Tahiti) to Greece, plus four ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: State of the World at the end of August 2021" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/09/01/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid19-state-of-the-world-at-the-end-of-august-2021/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: State of the World at the end of August 2021">Read more</a>
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August 26, 2021
Analysis by Keith Rankin. The first chart shows the three largest western countries: United States, United Kingdom, and Germany. The solid line plots represent quarterly average rates of excess death. It is clear that the United Kingdom copped Covid19 very early and very hard. The mid-June peak represents the period from mid-March to mid-June. It is ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: Excess Deaths in New Zealand and Comparator Countries" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/08/26/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid19-excess-deaths-in-new-zealand-and-comparator-countries/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: Excess Deaths in New Zealand and Comparator Countries">Read more</a>
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August 20, 2021
Covid-Delta, Science, and the Problem of Known Unknowns – Analysis by Keith Rankin. It’s a known known that the late Donald Rumsfeld’s principal legacy to the world is the following quote: “As we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – the dangers of Delta, versus the dangers of reduced community immunity" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/08/20/keith-rankin-analysis-the-dangers-of-delta-versus-the-dangers-of-reduced-community-immunity/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – the dangers of Delta, versus the dangers of reduced community immunity">Read more</a>
