World Cup Cricket: Police happy with behaviour at blockbuster match

February 28, 2015

MIL OSI –

Source: New Zealand Police – Press Release/Statement:

Headline: Police happy with behaviour at blockbuster match

Saturday, 28 February 2015 – 8:55pm

Auckland City Police are pleased with the behaviour of the crowd at today’s blockbuster ICC Cricket World Cup 2015 match between New Zealand and Australia at Eden Park. More than 40,000 fans enjoyed the family-friendly atmosphere of the venue and only one arrest was made.

Auckland City Police Operational Commander for the ICC Cricket World Cup 2015 Inspector Peter Gibson says that the event was a great demonstration of the world-class events that Auckland hosts.

“Overall the event ran smoothly and while there was some congestion experienced with moving the crowd in and out of the stadium before and after the game, from a Police perspective it can be considered a success,” he says.

The arrest made was for a behaviour offence.

“Only 21 people were evicted from the stadium for various reasons including intoxication and inappropriate behaviour. However we feel that the majority of the crowd was there to enjoy the game, and enjoy the game they did.

“The nailbiting result for the Blackcaps just added to the festivities of the day.

“We hope that today’s experience is exemplary of the next three ICC Cricket World Cup games that take place in Auckland.”

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Wild Giant Panda Population Increases Nearly 17%

By Selwyn Manning -

February 28, 2015

MIL OSI –

Source: World Wildlife Fund – Press Release/Statement:

Headline: Wild Giant Panda Population Increases Nearly 17%

The number of wild giant pandas has increased nearly 17% over the last decade, according to a new survey conducted by the Chinese government.

Figures released today by the Chinese government show that the global population of wild giant pandas has reached 1,864 – up from 1,596 when their numbers were last surveyed in 2003.

A symbol of wildlife conservation, giant pandas are only found in China’s Sichuan, Shaanxi and Gansu provinces.

“The rise in the population of wild giant pandas is a victory for conservation and definitely one to celebrate,” said Ginette Hemley, Senior Vice President of Wildlife Conservation, World Wildlife Fund (WWF).

“This increase in the population of wild giant pandas is a testament to the commitment made by the Chinese government for the last 30-plus years to wild panda conservation,” Hemley said. “WWF is grateful to have had the opportunity to partner with the Chinese government to contribute to panda conservation efforts.”

According to the Fourth National Giant Panda Survey, 1246 wild giant pandas live within nature reserves, accounting for 66.8% of the total wild population size and 53.8% of the total habitat area. There are currently 67 panda nature reserves in China, an increase of 27 since the last survey.

The report found the total area inhabited by wild giant pandas in China now equals 6,370,000 acres, an expansion of 11.8% since 2003.

Despite a positive trend in the number of wild giant pandas, the species still faces challenges. 46% of panda habitat and 33.2% of the population live outside of protected nature reserves. Habitat fragmentation – the separation of wildlife populations by physical barriers – is increasingly noticeable with about 12% individuals facing higher risks to their survival.

Though there appears to be a decline in traditional threats to pandas such as poaching, large-scale infrastructure projects like mining, hydro-power, and supporting roads and railroads are becoming more severe and were referenced in the survey for the first time.

WWF supports the government of China’s work by establishing panda nature reserves and a conservation network that integrates those reserves with forests farms and corridors of forest that allow pandas to find food and meet mates. The organization’s work ensures the legal protection of a large percentage of panda habitat and an improvement in how conservation efforts are carried out. WWF was also involved with the survey produced.

Xiaohai Liu, Executive Program Director, WWF-China said, “The survey result demonstrates the effectiveness of nature reserves in boosting wild giant panda numbers.”

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Joint Statement by Prime Ministers Hon Tony Abbott and Rt Hon John Key

By Selwyn Manning -

February 28, 2015

Headline: Joint Statement by Prime Ministers Hon Tony Abbott and Rt Hon John Key

Prime Minister the Hon Tony Abbott MP and Prime Minister the Rt Hon John Key met in Auckland on 28 February 2015 for the annual Australia-New Zealand Leaders’ Meeting.

Prime Minister Key warmly welcomed Prime Minister Abbott and Mrs Abbott to New Zealand. The visit has enabled wide-ranging and substantive discussion that has underlined the strength, value, diversity and warmth of our trans-Tasman relationship.

Prime Minister Key also acknowledged the visits of Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, Trade and Investment Minister Andrew Robb, Health and Sports Minister Sussan Ley and Parliamentary Secretary Paul Fletcher, as well as a senior Australian trade delegation. This diverse range of Australian Government and business representation underlines the depth and breadth of links between the two nations.

This year marks 100 years since the first official visit by an Australian Prime Minister to New Zealand. On 23 December 1914 Prime Minister Andrew Fisher left Australia on the liner Makura to Auckland, New Zealand. He stayed in New Zealand for almost two months. Prime Minister Fisher met with the New Zealand Prime Minister, William F. Massey, to discuss trade and wartime cooperation between the two countries, including the arrangement that would later become known as ANZAC.

Anzacs: One Hundred Years On

This year we mark the Centenary of the Gallipoli campaign. We will pay tribute to the men and women of our two nations who have served, and continue to serve our countries with honour and sacrifice.

Prime Minister Abbott confirmed that he will attend the dedication of the Australian Memorial in New Zealand’s National War Memorial Park in Wellington on 20 April 2015.

Both Prime Ministers announced their intention to travel to Turkey in April to attend the Centenary Gallipoli commemorations.

The Prime Ministers reaffirmed their wish to ensure Australia and New Zealand’s unique shared heritage and Anzac legacy is used as a catalyst for further cooperation, peace-building and the promotion of democracy, human rights and the rule of law into the future.

Security and Defence Cooperation

The Prime Ministers reaffirmed their commitment to Australia and New Zealand’s ongoing defence and security cooperation. They reiterated their commitment to working together to counter domestic, regional and international security threats.

The Prime Ministers agreed that the security environment in 2015, with the activities of Da’esh/the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), requires countries to work together, share resources and expertise, and leverage off each other’s connections and networks. Prime Minister Key acknowledged Australia’s ongoing contribution – an Air Task Group and an Advise and Assist mission – to the international coalition effort to assist the Government of Iraq to degrade and ultimately defeat Da’esh. Prime Minister Abbott welcomed the New Zealand Government’s decision to commit Defence Force personnel to a coalition Building Partner Capacity mission to train the Iraqi Security Forces at the Taji Military Complex near Baghdad. He said discussion with Prime Minister Key had informed Australia’s consideration of what further assistance it would provide Iraq.

Australia and New Zealand continue to work together to combat home-grown terrorism through engagement and cooperation between law enforcement and intelligence agencies. Both countries are investing new funding in countering terrorism and both have passed legislation to strengthen our intelligence communities and strengthen our borders. Prime Ministers Key and Abbott noted the particular value at this time of the close consultation on these issues made possible through the Australia-New Zealand Counter-Terrorism Committee.

The two leaders noted their shared concern that some Australians and New Zealanders are attempting to join terrorist organisations in Syria and Iraq. They expressed their determination to implement effective measures to counter the threat of foreign terrorist fighters to domestic safety and security, including in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2178.

The Prime Ministers discussed their deep concern about the violence and dire humanitarian situation in Syria and Iraq. They noted the serious impact of this humanitarian crisis on the wider region. They called on all parties to the Syrian conflict to allow unhindered access for the delivery of humanitarian assistance to those in need, in accordance with UN Security Council Resolutions 2139, 2165 and 2191.

The two leaders highlighted Australia’s and New Zealand’s close collaboration on cyber security, which helps to protect both countries against cyber-attack, and coordination of efforts to build the cyber capacity of other nations in our region.

Emergency Response Cooperation

The Prime Ministers welcomed the joint training and exercises that had taken place in 2014 between Australian and New Zealand defence forces, as well as other security personnel such as police, intelligence officers, fire fighters and medical practitioners to ensure a high degree of interoperability and understanding between the two countries. Such readiness enabled the swift deployment of personnel across the Tasman, and beyond in the event of an emergency or threat. Australia and New Zealand were pleased to be able to work together in the global response effort to Ebola. Later today, the Prime Ministers will call on the New Zealand Rural Fire Service to express their thanks for the work the rural fire fighters have done in both countries.

Trade and Economic Cooperation

Prime Minister Key congratulated Prime Minister Abbott on Australia’s successful presidency of the G20 in 2014. New Zealand appreciated the opportunity to participate in and contribute to the G20 and B20 meetings as Australia’s guest and share perspectives on trade and future economic challenges.

After meeting with leading business figures, including at the business-led Australia-New Zealand Leadership Forum, which this year marks its tenth anniversary, the Prime Ministers underlined the critical role that the business community plays in driving higher growth and expanding trade.

The Prime Ministers recognised the strength and importance of the trade and economic relationship between their two countries, underpinned by the Australia New Zealand Closer Economic Relations Trade Agreement (CER) and maintained through the ambitious Single Economic Market (SEM) agenda.

The Prime Ministers acknowledged continued progress in the implementation of the recommendations of the 2012 joint report of the Australian and New Zealand Productivity Commissions; progress on the alignment of qualifications frameworks with the goal of enhancing the mobility of students and skilled labour between the two countries; and cooperation towards the mutual recognition of online identity credentials so as to enable trusted online identities to be accepted in both countries for accessing government services online.

The Prime Ministers noted that reviews will take place in 2015 of the Trans-Tasman Mutual Recognition Arrangement, which is an important mechanism for regulatory coordination and a key plank of CER, and the five-year-old Double Taxation Agreement.

Prime Minister Key noted New Zealand’s interest, given the integrated state of the two countries’ economies, in domestic reviews which are currently under way in Australia, particularly the review of Australia’s tax system which will also consider the issue of trans-Tasman mutual recognition of imputation credits.

The Prime Ministers agreed on ongoing cooperation in areas such as infrastructure planning and science and research collaboration.

Regional and International Trade

The Prime Ministers reaffirmed their shared goal of greater trade a nd economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region, and their continued commitment to working together as they engage in regional markets.

As members of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC), Australia and New Zealand recently reaffirmed a commitment to a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) encompassing all 21 APEC members, and agreed to launch a collective strategic study on its realisation.

The Prime Ministers are committed to concluding the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations in 2015. They reiterated their expectation for an outcome that delivers a high quality, comprehensive, 21^st century agreement, as reaffirmed at their meeting in Beijing last year.

Both countries are also committed to progressing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations alongside ASEAN, China, India, Japan and Korea. The Prime Ministers agreed they will continue to push for a modern, comprehensive, high quality agreement which significantly builds on the Agreement Establishing the ASEAN – Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Area (AANZFTA). The Prime Ministers welcomed the positive headway over the past year in the PACER Plus negotiations.

The Prime Ministers welcomed developments in 2014 including the agreement on taking forward the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement. Both Prime Ministers hope that substantive progress would be made in 2015 to enable satisfactory resolution of outstanding issues in the WTO Doha Round negotiations particularly in agriculture issues, non-agriculture market access and services.

Co-Hosting Cricket World Cup 2015

Cooperation and friendly competition are hallmarks of the Australia-New Zealand relationship. As one of the most viewed sporting events globally, and the flagship event of the international cricketing calendar, co-hosting the Cricket World Cup has presented an excellent opportunity to showcase our two countries to the world. The Prime Ministers said they looked forward to attending the Australia-New Zealand game at Eden Park.

Other Ongoing Trans-Tasman Cooperation:

Noting the importance of ensuring that travel across the Tasman is as seamless and efficient as possible; both Prime Ministers encouraged the progress and success of SmartGate which continues to smooth trans-Tasman travel for Australian and New Zealand passport-holders. Prime Minister Abbott confirmed Australia is set to introduce 63 next generation eGates (SmartGate) for departures at its eight international airports from mid-2015.

The Prime Ministers welcomed agreement on an information-sharing arrangement between Australia and New Zealand for the recovery of student loans, which should become operational in the second half of 2016. Draft legislation is currently before the Australian Parliament to extend access to Australian student loans under the Higher Education Loan Program to long-term New Zealand residents in Australia under terms announced in 2013.

Australia and New Zealand are working together to share criminal history information for a variety of purposes, including to enable agencies from both countries, with the consent of the individual involved, to request criminal history checks for employment purposes. To this end, the Prime Ministers acknowledged the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding which will enable agencies to make informed decisions about an individual’s suitability for employment, registration and training. Prime Ministers Key and Abbott welcomed the development of a formal arrangement to share more information about trans-Tasman deportations, so that appropriate due diligence and risk management procedures can be put in place.

Both Prime Ministers welcomed efforts made on both sides of the Tasman to provide clear and coordinated whole-of-government advice to New Zealand Special Category Visa holders living in Australia and underlined the importance of New Zealanders being aware of their rights and responsibilities before moving to Australia.

Regional and International Cooperation

Australia and New Zealand continue to value and prioritise their close engagement with the Pacific. Both countries work in close partnership in Pacific development, including disaster risk management, to further our shared objectives for a more secure and prosperous Pacific region.

Prime Minister Key expressed his thanks for the strong support Australia had given New Zealand during its United Nations Security Council campaign.

New Zealand is committed to building on the significant contribution made by Australia during its term, 2013-2014, including by ensuring that the voice of small island states and the Pacific region is heard in the Council over the two years of its membership, 2015-2016. Prime Minister Key acknowledged the leadership role Australia had played on the Council over its term and said that New Zealand was aiming to continue in Australia’s footsteps.

The Prime Ministers welcomed the democratic election held in Fiji in 2014. Both countries were now actively focused on reengaging with Fiji and encouraging it back into the regional institutions to which it has historically made such an important and valued contribution to.

Australia and New Zealand are key partners in supporting the Bougainville Peace Agreement, including assisting Papua New Guinea and the Autonomous Bougainville Government to ensure the referendum on Bougainville’s future status, scheduled to occur between 2015 and 2020, is free and fair and takes place peacefully.

The Prime Ministers reaffirmed the pre-eminence of the Pacific Islands Forum and thanked Palau for its work as Chair of the Forum. Australia and New Zealand are committed to working with their Pacific neighbours over year ahead, including the implementation of the Framework for Pacific Regionalism. Both Prime Ministers are looking forward to visiting Papua New Guinea for the next Forum Leaders’ Meeting in September.

Australia and New Zealand noted preparations under way for Papua New Guinea’s hosting of APEC in 2018 and reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Papua New Guinea hosting a successful summit.

The Prime Ministers welcomed engagement between their foreign services on the co-location of diplomatic missions, including the successful placement of a senior New Zealand diplomat in Australia’s diplomatic mission in Ghana.

Prime Ministers Abbott and Key welcomed cooperation between their countries combating people smuggling, drug trafficking and illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing in the Pacific. The Prime Ministers welcomed work under way to develop a joint information campaign to deter people smuggling targeting Australia and New Zealand and reaffirmed their ongoing cooperation with regional partners through the Bali Process.

Prime Minister Key noted that New Zealand intercepted three vessels fishing illegally in the Southern Ocean in January this year and is now committed to putting these vessels out of business and doing what it can to penalise the owners and operators. Prime Ministers agreed the interception highlights the need for ongoing cooperation and vigilance to protect the Southern Ocean from IUU activities. Australia and New Zealand will also continue to work closely and cooperatively in pursuit of the establishment of marine protected areas in the Ross Sea region and East Antarctica and stand together against lethal whaling in the Southern Ocean.

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Australia and New Zealand sign MoU for criminal history checks

By Selwyn Manning -

February 28, 2015

Headline: Australia and New Zealand sign MoU for criminal history checks

Communities on both sides of the Tasman will benefit following the expansion of a criminal history checking service to vet individuals for employment, training and registration purposes.

Under a new Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), approved New Zealand agencies will be able to make requests, through New Zealand Police, for Australia-wide criminal history checks from CrimTrac. Similarly, approved Australian agencies will be able to request criminal history information from New Zealand Police.

Australian Minister for Justice, Michael Keenan, along with New Zealand’s Minister of Justice, Amy Adams, and Minister of Police, Michael Woodhouse, have signed the MoU. The MoU finalises commitments made at the Australia-New Zealand joint-Cabinet meeting in February 2014.

The MOU builds on a trial between Queensland and New Zealand to exchange criminal history information for vetting purposes and expands the new arrangements to all eligible agencies in New Zealand and all Australian States and Territories.

“This service will help eligible agencies in both countries make informed decisions about an individual’s suitability for employment, registration and training,” Mr Keenan said. “This provides an important tool for protecting the community from people who may pose a risk.”

“Criminal history exchange forms part of a wider programme of work on reciprocal information sharing to support better border control and law enforcement. It is important we have the proper processes in place to support increasing numbers of people travelling between our countries,” Mr Adams said.

The MoU contains provisions to protect individuals’ privacy, such as ensuring measures are put in place to protect personal information from unauthorised disclosure, alteration or access. Information will be exchanged in accordance with domestic legislative requirements including New Zealand’s ‘clean slate’ laws and Australia’s ‘spent convictions’ legislation.

As with existing criminal record checking arrangements, approved agencies will only be able to check someone’s criminal history if they have the informed consent of the individual involved.

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Police investigating suspected arson

By Selwyn Manning -

February 28, 2015

MIL OSI –

Source: New Zealand Police – Press Release/Statement:

Headline: Police investigating suspected arson

Saturday, 28 February 2015 – 10:48am

Manawatu CIB is currently investigating a suspected arson that occurred at a residential address in Ormond Street, Woodville, at approximately 1am today.

Police and a fire investigator are currently examining the property which has been extensively damaged.

The address became the scene of a homicide inquiry on 4 January, 2015 after 49-year-old James Whatuira, was found dead at the address.

Detective Sergeant Johnny Oram of the Manawatu CIB says: “Whilst a link between Mr Whatuira’s death and the suspected arson is not established at this time, Police consider this to be a strong possibility.”

“We want to speak to anyone that has any information about this suspected arson, including reports of any suspicious behaviour witnessed in the area during the early hours of this morning.”

Anyone with information is encouraged to contact Detective Sergeant Oram on (06) 213 9613. Alternatively, any information can also be provided anonymously to the organisation, Crimestoppers, on 0800 555 111.

ENDS

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Keith Rankin on Normative Economic Journalism

By Selwyn Manning -

February 28, 2015

MIL OSI Analysis – Source: Keith Rankin – Analysis-Reportage: Headline: Normative Economic Journalism Normative economics is the economics of value‑judgement and belief. It’s neither social science nor art. It is culture, and culture is a mix of good and bad. Sixteenth and seventeenth century western culture gave us witch burnings, religious wars on a scale that makes Jihad Johnny look not so bad, global circumnavigation, the rebirth of science, double-entry bookkeeping, and some quite impressive art. Normative economics is about what people believe and assume to be good in our material lives, and therefore true. We contrast normative economics – the economics of belief – with the positive economics of cause and effect. People believe that money is wealth unless it’s debased; a deep-seated belief, that leads to the idea that large-scale ‘debasement’ (‘quantitative easing’ in twenty-first century language) inevitably leads to an inflationary process. Observation of cause and effect suggests otherwise. People believe that debt is bad and credit is good, never minding that they are the same thing seen from different perspectives. Many people believe that economic growth is good and that inflation is bad. People believe that work is good and therefore more work must be better. And they believe that paid work is better than unpaid work. They believe much the same about thrift as they do about work. People believe that selling is a benefit and buying is a cost. I could easily go on. Journalists are people who generally share the same cultural beliefs that most of the rest of us cherish. Politics is meant to be normative. We vote for the people that say they will do more of what we think is good, and less of what we think is bad. Economics however is not meant to be normative; it’s meant to be scientific. Scientific economists may be able to prescribe a means to increase economic growth. But they cannot say that increased growth is always good. They can say that more growth is good if the benefits of more growth are greater than the costs of more growth. But they cannot easily measure those benefits and costs in any scientific sense. Politicians can argue that the benefits of some policy may be greater than the costs, but only because it is their job to apply value judgements, and because they stand to lose their jobs if the net benefits of their policies are not apparent to their employers. —————————- To get quick comparative economic information I often go to a ‘journalistic’ website – www.tradingeconomics.com – that, like Wikipedia, is convenient. But it’s a double-edged sword to unleash on students. Brief commentaries that come with the statistics are infused with normative interpretations. What is most scary is the use of Excel-style formatting, using shades of green shading to indicate ‘good’ and shades of red to indicate ‘bad’. Let’s look at some of the good. (We note of course that these stats are updated continuously so the numbers I give here may not be the same for you.) On inflation, the higher the number the more bad the statistic is painted. Conversely, the lower the number the better the statistic is painted. The winner of the 2015 inflation award is [drum-roll] … ‘Syria’, with -29% (ie 29% deflation). A distant runner-up is Lebanon, followed closely by Rwanda, Greece and Somalia. (Reserve Banks know better of course than the authors of Trading Economics about the huge dangers of deflation. But, as we will see, they have no idea how to prevent deflation. The alleged links between money and inflation fall well into the camp of culture; not the camp of science.) The United States is in annual deflation now. Its inflation is falling as its economy returns to significant growth and high spending. Definitely not what the textbooks claim should happen. A given inflation rate is neither good nor bad; it’s only high or low. Under normal circumstances steady inflation of two or three percent a year is probably ideal (though anything above two percent is shaded red in Trading Economics). But under contexts of huge credit-debt imbalances, somewhat higher rates of inflation are needed to stabilise the financial ship. In some circumstances economic growth is good; in others it is bad. It depends on the costs. Productivity is essentially a ratio of outputs to inputs; tantamount to a ratio of benefits to costs. Thus increased productivity, if measured properly, is by definition good. Productivity increases with negative economic growth if inputs decrease faster than outputs. Top five for economic growth are currently South Sudan (13.1%), Sierra Leone (13%), Ethiopia (10.4%), Turkmenistan (10.3%), and Ivory Coast (9.9%). I could happily visit Ethiopia or Ivory Coast, though their unemployment rates of 17.5% and 15.7% are worrying. Not so sure about the others though. Is Sierra Leone growing due to the expansion of medical services? Its unemployment is just 3.4%. Possibly it is in part because the medical services are not restoring enough sick people to labour force status. On interest rates, high is treated by Trading Economics as good; low as bad. Switzerland and Denmark share the booby prizes here, each with interest rates of -0.75% (yes, minus). (Both have deflation, in part I would argue because their interest rates are so low.) Winners, at over 20%, are Belarus, Malawi, The Gambia, Argentina, and Ghana. Russia is on 15%. Sierra Leone is at a comparatively low 10%. Belarus (0.5%) is just pipped by Cambodia and Qatar for the lowest unemployment. High interest rates appear to be doing some good in Belarus! On government debt to GDP, Japan is easily the most red, though Greece is catching up. For Japan, high government debt is a solution, not a problem. That debt is easily serviced, even if it is technically a Ponzi scheme. There is no deceit involved. Japanese savers like to lend to their government at near-zero interest rates, happy in the knowledge that the Japanese government has no difficulty attracting funds. Greece could service its government debt also, if the rest of the Eurozone countries allowed Greek incomes (and therefore taxes) to grow. Five years of austerity has achieved nothing. Austerity policies are based on belief (ie on culture), not science. The western countries with the lowest government debt (as a percent of GDP) are, as we should expect, the ones with the highest private sector debt. Estonia is a particularly good example. New Zealand and Australia have low government debt for similar reasons. New Zealand’s is the same as Switzerland’s, though for different reasons. On the government’s Budget balance, green shading is awarded to countries with governments running surpluses. Not surprisingly, four of the five biggest surplus governments are small countries with lots of oil. Then there is the Republic of the Congo [Brazzaville, not Kinshasa], running a 12.1% government surplus. For the government of such a poor country to have a government that so miserly is a huge shame. Public thrift on this level is what cost Romania’s Nicolai Ceausescu his life on Christmas Day in 1989. The austerity countries of Europe continue to run much larger Budget deficits than most countries with relatively free spending households; countries such as New Zealand and the USA. The current account of the balance of payments is always a strange one to make normative judgements upon. Many people believe that all countries should run current account surpluses year-after-year. It’s logically impossible of course. If spending is less than earnings in some countries then by definition it must be more in other counties. The economic problem is supposed to be the finiteness of goods and services. Yet it’s the deficit counties who have eased this problem, by spending more than they earn with the full and ongoing encouragement of the countries which earn more than they spend. To any economic commentator with some appreciation of the zero-sum constraint, success here (on the balance of payments) is scoring close to zero. Yet Trading Economics gives the big green to the high surplus countries; countries with oil, and with the most miserly people on the planet. In the latter category come Macao, Singapore, Switzerland, Taiwan, Netherlands, Germany, Denmark and Sweden. And Ireland, which has embraced personal austerity much as St Paul was converted by God’s light on the road to Damascus. —————————- To finish, I would like to comment on “Uncharted Waters”, by journalist Patrick Smellie in the NZ Listener of 7 February 2015. He says “we live in strange times”. Too right, given my account above. Then he say the US “central bank threw trillions of dollars of made-up money” to reignite the economy. What other kind of money is there, other than “made-up money”? Except for miniscule amounts of coin, money is all made-up by double-entry bookkeeping. The main reason, initially, for central banks (rather than commercial banks) making-up lots of money was to support asset prices. There would be sufficient means to buy assets for sale for something comparable to the prices the owners of those assets paid for them. Later on ‘Quantitative Easing’ (QE) was undertaken by the monetary authorities to get people to borrow and spend, even when the governments of some of those countries were asking people to save more and spend less. Finally (and especially in Japan), QE was done in an attempt to create inflation. QE has had precisely the opposite effect to the effect most normative commentators had expected. It is in our cultural DNA to believe that more money means more inflation. Indeed Japan did get some inflation (2.4%), thanks to a big fall in the Yen. It’s now a cheap country to visit, and to eat in. But for the world as a whole, low interest rates are reducing production costs, and are substantially reducing the sizes of dividends that company owners are demanding. Cheap easy money is taking us into, as Smellie says, “uncharted waters”. (Well, not really unchartered to those who know their history of the seventeenth and nineteenth centuries, and the early 1930s.) Smellie goes on to say that “cranking-up the money-printing presses” creates “vast new debts that only future generations or … inflation can hope to cure”. Sure the future generations are in increased debt to themselves, it’s the nature of double-entry bookkeeping. (Smellie does not say who he thinks the young ones are in debt to.) Is it a huge problem to be in debt to oneself? The journalist only looks at one side of the ledger, and sees a problem that isn’t there. (He’s right though, that inflation can render solvent an otherwise financially insolvent world.) Further on Smellie notes: “households and businesses are savers now, rather than spenders, a huge shift from a decade ago … governments [on the other hand] may not be able to control their debts …”. First, the truth is that in most of the capitalist world households and especially businesses were savers a decade ago. It’s just that the scale of private saving increased substantially this decade over the last. Second, Smellie’s use of the words “may not” reveals that he does not understand the basics of borrowing and lending. The correct words are “can not”. If you divide the world into two parts, private and public, and if the private part is saving (running surpluses) then the public part must by definition be dis-saving (running deficits). It’s a global ‘zero-sum game’, no matter how much we might believe or wish that it isn’t. Thus governments can only run surpluses when the private sector runs deficits. Austerity cannot achieve its goals; it’s a logical impossibility. Thus Estonia and New Zealand have low government debt and high private debt. Greece has high government deficits precisely because its private sector is being forced to save. When the private part is in surplus, the public part must be in equal deficit. As Margaret Atwood noted in her book Payback, debtor and creditor are “joined at the hip”. Let’s have more science, and less superstition, in our economic discourse. Emphasise the positive, not the normative. – – ]]>

VISTA ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LAUNCHES VISTA FOUNDATION

By Selwyn Manning -

February 28, 2015

Headline: VISTA ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LAUNCHES VISTA FOUNDATION

AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND: Vista Group (VGL) is pleased to announce the launch of the Vista Foundation and its inaugural programme, the Vista Film Marketing Programme, in partnership with the New Zealand Film Commission (NZFC).

The Vista Foundation’s aim is to help filmmakers learn the business side of film marketing.

Vista Group Chief Executive Murray Holdaway says the Foundation is dedicated to growing and developing aspiring filmmakers. The Vista Foundation has received establishment funding from the founding shareholders of Vista Group and Vista Group itself has the intention to continue funding support in future years.

“At Vista Entertainment we are passionate about the New Zealand film industry and want to help the next generation of feature filmmakers launch their careers. Being a professional filmmaker is about great writing and directing skills, about design and production but it’s also about marketing and promotion, about maximizing the return on investment in the film being produced,” says Holdaway.

Roger Donaldson, producer and director of New Zealand classics Smash Palace, Sleeping Dogs and The World’s Fastest Indian as well as numerous Hollywood blockbusters such as The Bounty, Cocktail and No Way Out, will be the Patron of the Foundation.

“When we made Sleeping Dogs, there was no Film Commission and we simply made it up as we went along. When I look back at that film, I am amazed at what we created, but I also wish I knew then what I know now. Filmmakers need to know how to seek out financing, how licensing and distribution works, how to speak to particular audiences as well as how to tell a good story. The Foundation will help them develop those skills and I am honoured to be asked to be the inaugural Patron.” says Donaldson.

Vista is working with the NZFC to deliver on the Foundation’s promise. The NZFC, set up by the New Zealand government to foster film production in New Zealand, supports the Foundation and the two will work together on the Film Marketing Programme.

NZFC CEO Dave Gibson says the role the Foundation will play is an important one that currently isn’t being addressed.

“The Film Marketing Programme has been created with input from industry stalwart, John Barnett, and will involve presentations and panel discussions from Kiwis working in the international marketplace already. This is a long-term initiative that we are pleased to be partnering on with the Vista Foundation. The Foundation’s desire to be involved with the upskilling of the film industry in such a practical way is welcomed by the NZFC.”

Up to four filmmaking teams will be nominated by the NZFC for the programme, which will be held annually as a series of two day workshops over a three month period.

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Winston Peters Announces His Campaign for Northland By-election

By Selwyn Manning -

February 28, 2015

MIL OSI –

Source: New Zealand First – Press Release/Statement:

Headline: Northland By-election Media Conference

Many months ago, we learned of alarming circumstances in the Northland electorate which would inevitably lead to a by-election.

This information was known to a number of others and at a much earlier date, even well before the 2014 September 20 election.

As it emerges there is to be a by-election in Northland on the 28^th March.

Since this has become public knowledge we have received many requests from a wide number of people, right across the political spectrum, for us to stand in this by-election.

The economy and communities of Northland are well known to me. I was born there, worked on family farms there, was educated there, was chosen to represent sports teams there, as well as having an interest and a home in the electorate all of my life.

Standing in a by-election is not an easy decision to make but I have had a long-held concern for Northland’s forgotten people and its overlooked economies. A study of all facets of the electorate suggests that it has been marginalised and cinderallarised, along with many other provinces in New Zealand. Regional development is stagnating there.

None of this is the fault of Northlanders, but in what has been aptly described by many economists as New Zealand’s two-tier economy, Northland has been relegated at the bottom of the second tier.

This is not how Northland used to be, where it was once was one of the jewels in this country, in many more ways than one. Northland should be the Florida of New Zealand.

That is why, having consulted with my colleagues and party, as well as many in the Northland electorate, we have decided to respond to their call and to put it all on the line for Northland.

We will be asking Northlanders to put Northland first so that Wellington gets the message, loud and clear, and begins paying real attention to their serious needs.

We stand for our country’s flag, its values and for a united country, where all benefit in economic progress, and where the interests of our people are paramount and our first priority.

Northland needs a real voice that is able to hit the ground running and ensure that for the coming years no one will ignore what Northland thinks and wants.

Victory here won’t change the government but it will change the way they think.

We start as the underdog but this is a chance in a lifetime for the Northland people, and we have every confidence that they will answer the call.

Our campaign starts today.

Thank You

Winston Peters

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Man charged with cultivating cannabis as part of an ongoing prevention operation in Canterbury

By Selwyn Manning -

February 28, 2015

MIL OSI –

Source: New Zealand Police – Press Release/Statement:

Headline: Man charged with cultivating cannabis as part of an ongoing prevention operation in Canterbury

Friday, 27 February 2015 – 7:14pm

Canterbury Police based in Ashburton executed a search warrant at a property in Hinds, Mid Canterbury, today (27 February 2015) as part of an ongoing prevention operation, Operation Jasmine, to disrupt the cultivation and supply of cannabis in Canterbury.

A 50 year old employed man was arrested following the discovery of a well established hydroponic cannabis growing operation located during the search.

He has been bailed to appear in Ashburton District Court on Monday 16 March 2015 charged with Cultivating Cannabis.

Police investigations are continuing.

Canterbury Police are committed to working with the community to disrupt the supply chain and reduce the demand for cannabis in the District.

It only takes one call to Police or Crimestoppers to prevent criminals selling drugs in your community.

If you have information about drug cultivation, manufacture or supply in Canterbury, please contact Ashburton Police station on 03 307 8400 or Canterbury District Headquarters on 03 363 7400.

Information can also be provided anonymously by calling Crimestoppers on 0800 555 111.

ENDS

Issued by: Lisa-Marie Brooks, District Communications Manager, Canterbury Police District. Mobile: 021 942 404

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Harmeet Sooden Ex-Hostage Returning to Iraq amid Current Crisis

By Selwyn Manning -

February 28, 2015

MIL OSI – Source: Harmeet Sooden – Press Release/Statement: Headline: Ex-Hostage Returning to Iraq amid Current Crisis AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND – Harmeet Singh Sooden is travelling to Iraq in the coming weeks to work with Christian Peacemaker Teams (CPT) on a short-term assignment. He will join a CPT project that is supporting local bodies managing the humanitarian crisis in Iraqi Kurdistan, arising from the large influx of Syrian refugees and internally displaced persons fleeing the current fighting. [caption id="attachment_481" align="alignleft" width="300"] Peace activist, Harmeet Sooden.[/caption] In 2005, while participating in an international CPT delegation, Mr Sooden and three colleagues were kidnapped in Baghdad and held for almost four months. Mr Sooden says the rise of ISIS and the ensuing crisis remind him of his own ordeal: “Seeing the hostages in orange jumpsuits brings back memories of Tom.” Tom Fox, one of the three held with Mr Sooden, was executed on 9 March 2006. Mr Sooden and the remaining hostages, Canadian James Loney and Briton Norman Kember, were freed two weeks later. According to the US Government, indications are that al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), the direct forerunner of ISIS, was responsible for the CPT kidnapping. Mr Sooden is concerned about the Government’s decision to deploy the NZDF to train the Iraqi armed forces in fighting ISIS as part of the US-led coalition. He says, “US policies over the past few decades have had a devastating impact on Iraqi society, particularly the 1991 Gulf War and US/UK-initiated UN sanctions that followed. ISIS itself has its immediate origins in the conditions created in large part by the US and its allies, beginning with the illegal 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq.” Amnesty International has recently accused the Iraqi Government and government-backed militias of committing war crimes. According to the organisation Iraq Body Count (IBC), “[t]he rise of [ISIS] as a major force in the conflict, as well as the military responses by the Iraqi Government and the re-entry of US and Coalition air forces into the conflict, have all contributed to the elevated death tolls”. Mr Sooden says, “Our country should place the welfare of the Iraqi people as a whole ahead of its own national interests, and not take part in a military campaign that is increasing the level of violence in the region. The Government has not provided an adequate justification for an NZDF presence in Iraq.” Mr Sooden believes NZ should withdraw entirely from the US-led coalition. “A law-abiding state, in particular a UN Security Council member, would ask the UN Security Council to mandate the appropriate measures to address the threat ISIS poses to international peace and security,” says Mr Sooden, “while pursuing UN-mandated avenues such as blocking support for ISIS’s war-fighting capabilities, increasing humanitarian aid, and engaging in good faith diplomacy to resolve the conflict.” CPT is an international NGO composed of trained human rights workers who protect human rights and promote conflict resolution in conflict zones around the world. CPT has had a presence in Iraq since October 2002 at the behest of local NGOs – first in Baghdad and then, from 2006, in the Kurdish north. It is a small but important part of a large non-violent movement in Iraq. Investigative journalist Seymour Hersh, who helped to expose the Abu Ghraib torture and prisoner abuse scandal in 2004, has acknowledged the work of CPT: “[M]ost of the things that I ended up writing about in Abu Ghraib, most of the general concepts, they knew a great deal about earlier.” CPT’s work with detainees has also been commended by the International Committee of the Red Cross and United Nations Assistance Mission to Iraq (UNAMI). — Questions and Answers

Q: Why are you going back to Iraq, given you were taken hostage there?
Q: What do you hope to accomplish?
Q: Aren’t you afraid at all about going back?
Q: The New Zealand Government advises citizens against all travel to Iraq – isn’t it too dangerous to go to Iraq?
Q: What does your family think of you going to Iraq?
Q: What are your concerns about NZ’s military involvement in Iraq?
Q: What, then, do you think are NZ’s reasons for military involvement in Iraq?
Q: Realistically, what do you think NZ should be doing?
Q: What do New Zealanders think about the deployment?
Q: What can New Zealanders do to support alternatives?
Q: Some might say you are ‘anti-New Zealand’ – how do you feel about that?
Q: What does CPT do?
Q: Is CPT a Christian missionary organisation?
Q: Won’t your actions endanger the lives of troops who might have to free you if you get kidnapped?
Q: How do you see your kidnapping now, almost 10 years later?
Q: Who kidnapped you?
Q: How were you freed from captivity?
Q: What is your background?

Q: Why are you going back to Iraq, given you were taken hostage there?

A: In part, my motivation comes from my personal history, having friends and family who have lost much to war. My great-grandfather was a soldier in the British Indian Army and died in Mesopotamia in 1916 during WWI. We lost a great many relatives to ethnic cleansing in the first Indo-Pakistani war, and my parents were married in the middle of the third Indo-Pakistani war. When I was a child growing up in Zambia, South African forces would often conduct commando raids in Zambian territory, killing innocent civilians. A friend of mine survived the 9-11 attacks, and a classmate, Maher Arar, was a victim of the US’s extraordinary rendition programme and tortured. In part, my motivation comes from a personal sense of moral responsibility for the consequences of my past actions. I used to work for Cubic Defence New Zealand, a US-owned defence contractor that supplies infantry training and simulation equipment to the armed forces of various countries. Many of these countries are major human rights violators and currently engaged in the conflict in Iraq. As an NZ citizen, I also feel I have some responsibility for the actions of my country. NZ foreign policy, especially when aligned with US foreign policy, can adversely affect millions of people throughout the world and greatly increase the chance of large-scale conflict. I think NZ foreign policy has been especially harmful to the people of Iraq as a whole. Working with an NGO like Christian Peacemaker Teams (CPT) gives me the chance to use my resources and abilities to address the harmful aspects of NZ foreign policy and persuade our Government to reflect our values overseas by publicising those harmful aspects.

Q: What do you hope to accomplish?

A: I will be working on a CPT project that supports a network of local NGOs, government bodies and communities working to ameliorate the effects of the humanitarian crisis and worsening economic situation on Iraqi Kurds, Syrian refugees and internally displaced persons in Iraqi Kurdistan. CPT seeks to give particular attention to the needs of women and children, build networks and diffuse community tensions. The specific areas where I can contribute are: needs assessment, documenting the human rights situation, and research. In NZ, I hope to raise public awareness about what measures NZ could take that would likely serve the interests of the people in the region.

Q: Aren’t you afraid at all about going back?

A: Even though this will be my third time in Iraq with CPT (the second time since the kidnapping), the decision to volunteer wasn’t easy. The kidnapping was a profoundly painful experience. The risk of being kidnapped or killed in Iraqi Kurdistan is low. Even so, I can’t avoid feeling some apprehension as the conflict unfolds. But I have to do what feels right when my country goes to war again, knowing that its actions might make life worse for people in Iraq.

Q: The New Zealand Government advises citizens against all travel to Iraq – isn’t it too dangerous to go to Iraq?

A: CPT’s Iraq project is based in the semi-autonomous region of Iraq under the control of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), referred to as Iraqi Kurdistan. Currently, the security situation in this area is better than the rest of Iraq, especially for foreigners. However, Iraqi Kurdistan is vulnerable to the effects of both internal tensions and regional instability. Insurgent groups led by ISIS continue to launch offensives into Kurdish territory. While there is currently no evidence of ISIS kidnapping cells in Iraqi Kurdistan and the number of Kurds joining ISIS is very low,1 there have been bombings in urban centres, which ISIS has claimed responsibility for.2 Border areas with Turkey and Iran continue to be volatile. CPT workers are trained to carry out human rights work under such conditions, with the highest regard for professionalism and safety. CPT in Iraq has stringent security protocols in place, and continues to monitor and assess the security situation in collaboration with its Kurdish partner organisations. To date, no CPT personnel have been kidnapped in areas under KRG control. At present, it is unclear whether the NZDF deployment to Iraq will increase the security risk for NZers working in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Q: What does your family think of you going to Iraq?

A: My friends and family are naturally concerned for my wellbeing, but understand and my respect my decision.

Q: What are your concerns about NZ’s military involvement in Iraq?

A: I am not opposed to the use of force, on principle. I support NZ Government policy that is likely to help the people in the region, but I am opposed to policy that is likely to end up harming them. UK, then US policies of the past 100 years have had a detrimental effect on Iraqi society. The illegal US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, and ensuing occupation – supported in part by New Zealand3,4 – incited the sectarian conflict that is now destabilising Iraq and spreading throughout the region. ISIS itself has its origins in the conditions created in large part by the US and its allies. NZ has bolstered its contribution to the US-led coalition through a commitment to deploy the NZDF to Iraq to train the Iraqi army in fighting ISIS, signalling an official shift from a non-military NZ role to a military one. As part of this mission, a number of NZDF personnel are to work alongside Australian forces.5 The coalition’s military operations are lawful so long as they remain within the remit of the Iraqi Government – a government that is increasingly at risk of becoming more polarised along sectarian lines.6 Many of the major contributors to the coalition have poor human rights records and some have been implicated in serious human rights violations in Iraq that continue to the present. The Australian Special Forces, for example, have been working directly with the Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service (CTS), a CIA-supported “elite Iraqi security force accused of killing prisoners and other human rights violations,”7,8 including “torturing detainees with impunity”9 at a secret detention facility in Baghdad. Amnesty International has accused the Iraqi Government and government-backed militias of committing war crimes,10 a concern shared by the UN.11 They have been implicated in ethnic cleansing in areas reclaimed from ISIS12 and establishing ‘killing zones’ around Baghdad.13 Furthermore the new government of Iraq appears to be becoming less inclusive than its predecessors. US-organised airstrikes in Iraq are also resulting in civilian deaths,14 which are potential war crimes.15 The organisation Iraq Body Count (IBC) has concluded, “The rise of [ISIS] as a major force in the conflict, as well as the military responses by the Iraqi Government and the re-entry of US and Coalition air forces into the conflict, have all contributed to the elevated death tolls”16 in Iraq for the year 2014. The US-led coalition’s “sledgehammer” strategy is likely to exacerbate sectarian tensions and further entrench ISIS in parts of Iraqi society. Under such circumstances, NZ’s actions, including military training, could very well contribute to the increase in the level of violence in the region and worsening of the humanitarian crisis. The military support role NZ’s intelligence services are playing in the region remains secret, and therefore beyond public scrutiny.

Q: What, then, do you think are NZ’s reasons for military involvement in Iraq?

A: Contrary to the Government’s public pronouncements, policy documents indicate its rationale for military intervention derives mainly from NZ’s national security interests, not necessarily what is in the best interests of the people of Iraq and Syria, or even New Zealanders. NZ has a long history of a military presence in the Middle East, a region of global strategic importance. NZ’s policy towards the Middle East is primarily focused on the “stability of the region”, in other words the security of NZ’s “significant economic and trading interests in the region and access to energy supplies and petrochemicals at affordable prices”. NZ has wider foreign policy goals of preserving the global economic and political order, upon which the West relies. Thus, NZ also seeks to strengthen its “international linkages…with like-minded states” and maintain its “security credentials”. NZ’s international partnerships “amplify New Zealand’s reach and influence”, but “also bring with them expectations [of] being willing to play [a] part to advance shared security objectives.” Accordingly, NZ and the “like-minded states” are unwilling to see an independent force develop in the Middle East that has regional influence and control over substantial oil reserves. As ISIS largely operates outside the purview of the US- managed global system, it poses a threat to the national security interests of NZ and “like-minded states”. Contributing to international military operations is one instrument of foreign policy that NZ employs to maintain and enhance its national security interests. From an NZ perspective, “[t]he success of most major international military coalitions…depend on US involvement”, because the US is world’s foremost military and economic power. The NZ Government would likely have determined the military component of the US-led coalition as being suited to mitigating the security threat posed by ISIS while ensuring suitably “like-minded” regimes emerge in the region. It would also have determined that, through its limited military contribution, it could best pursue NZ’s national security interests.

Q: Realistically, what do you think NZ should be doing?

A: The Government has not provided an adequate explanation of how an NZDF deployment of any kind to Iraq would be beneficial for the people of Iraq as a whole. If NZ were serious about addressing the security and humanitarian crisis facing the people of the region, it would work independently of a US-led coalition – effectively a military coalition – that prioritises the indiscriminate use of force. As a “responsible international citizen” and member of the UN Security Council (UNSC), NZ should appeal to the UNSC to declare ISIS a threat to international peace and security, and mandate the appropriate response, including the military option. A UNSC resolution to that effect may lead to a more reasonable response to the ISIS threat through an inclusive UN-organised effort, in effect tempering the “sledgehammer” approach of the US and its allies. NZ should take a forthright stand in opposing US-backed crimes, while acting in a manner consistent with existing UNSC resolutions and international law by: blocking support for ISIS’s war-fighting capability; increasing humanitarian aid to NGOs working in the region; and supporting good faith multilateral diplomatic initiatives to address the root causes of the conflict. The head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Iraq (UNAMI) has stated “there is ‘general agreement,’ not just in the UN but in Iraq as well, that the security element of dealing with [ISIS] is [just] one part of the solution…to the problems facing the country”, but “an inclusive political process [is] vital to finding comprehensive solutions”.17 Though far from ideal, this range of alternative measures is far more likely to serve the interests of the populations of the region.

Q: What do New Zealanders think about the deployment?

A: A 3News poll suggests NZers are divided over “sending Kiwi troops in a non- combat training role to Iraq to help the fight against”18 ISIS. 50% of respondents agreed, 45% disagreed and the rest did not know. 73% believed committing troops would put New Zealand at greater risk of a terrorist attack. Recent polls have similar results.19 Parliament is also divided on the issue.20 The Government has withheld virtually all official information relating to the deployment, mainly on the grounds of protecting NZ’s national security and international relations. Even so, I think most NZers would oppose the deployment and support the alternatives if those facts already in the public domain were made available to them.

Q: What can New Zealanders do to support alternatives?

A: I would encourage NZers to draw their own conclusions from the facts and make their views known to the Government. This act alone could persuade the Government to limit the duration of the deployment and implement alternatives.

Q: Some might say you are ‘anti-New Zealand’ – how do you feel about that?

A: I’m trying to fulfil my obligations as a citizen of this country and uphold the values that make it a good place to live. Espousing democratic principles sometimes demands adopting a position that is critical of state policy.

Q: What does CPT do?

A: CPT is an international NGO that was established in 1988 to protect human rights and promote conflict resolution in conflict zones around the world. It is composed of approximately 230 trained human rights workers and has a larger number of affiliates. CPT has had a presence in Iraq since October 2002 at the behest of local NGOs – first in Baghdad and then, following our kidnapping, in the Kurdish north. It is a small but important part of a large non-violent movement in Iraq. CPT’s work with detainees has been commended by organisations it liaises with, including the United Nations Assistance Mission to Iraq (UNAMI) and the International Committee of the Red Cross.21 Seymour Hersh, a noted investigative journalist, who helped expose the Abu Ghraib torture and prisoner abuse scandal in 2004, has acknowledged the work of CPT in his articles.22 In an interview during our captivity, he said, “[M]ost of the things that I ended up writing about in Abu Ghraib, most of the general concepts, they knew a great deal about earlier.”23 Currently, CPT has four main projects in Iraqi Kurdistan: addressing the impact of the humanitarian crisis on Syrian refugees, internally displaced persons and Iraqi Kurds; addressing the impact of foreign energy corporations on Kurdish communities; providing training in non-violent conflict resolution to local human rights groups; and general human rights advocacy.

Q: Is CPT a Christian missionary organisation?

A: No, CPT is a human rights organisation and does not proselytise. It has its historical roots in the peace churches of North America. Not all of its members are Christian. I have secular beliefs, for example.

Q: Won’t your actions endanger the lives of troops who might have to free you if you get kidnapped?

A: As a matter of policy, CPT makes it explicitly clear it does not sanction the use of armed force or payment of ransom in the event of a kidnapping. This policy is in place to ensure further lives are not put at risk, including the lives of soldiers. However, CPT has no direct control over the actions of state entities like the military and intelligence services.

Q: How do you see your kidnapping now, almost 10 years later?

A: In retrospect, I think one of the few significant aspects of the kidnapping came from it garnering international attention. The Coalition Forces, media and the anti- war movement all sought to portray the hostage crisis on their own terms to influence Western public opinion on the occupation of Iraq. However, it’s impossible to gauge whether as a result public opinion shifted slightly towards or away from supporting the policies of the Coalition Forces that were harming the people of Iraq.

Q: Who kidnapped you?

A: At the time, a group calling itself the Swords of Righteousness Brigade claimed responsibility for our kidnapping. Very little information about the kidnapping has been publicised by the Coalition Forces. However, recently released documents from US Central Command indicate that the Swords of Righteousness Brigade may either have been a subordinate cell of al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) or closely linked to it.24 Several AQI figures are believed to have played a role in our kidnapping and the kidnappings of journalist Jill Carroll and aid worker Margaret Hassan.25,26,27 AQI is the direct forerunner of ISIS.28

Q: How were you freed from captivity?

A: According to British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, we were “released as a result of a multinational force operation”.29 The operation reportedly involved Task Force Black, a US-UK Special Forces unit primarily tasked to kill or capture high- value enemy targets. The circumstances surrounding our release have not been disclosed by the Coalition Forces and remain classified, mainly on the grounds of protecting national security. I have no verifiable information relating to our release other than what I saw personally. Task Force Black has been implicated in human rights abuses at secret detention facilities, such as Camp Nama30 and H1.31 According to a recent BBC report, intelligence relating to our case “was likely obtained by using some of the tactics condemned by the [US] Senate committee”32 in its report on the CIA’s use of torture. Disbanded in 2009, Task Force Black is rumoured to have been reconstituted in response to the ISIS threat.33

Q: What is your background?

A: I’m a dual Canadian-New Zealand citizen, originally from Zambia. I’m a licensed professional engineer. I currently work as a technical writer for an NZ software company in the healthcare sector. I’m also a member of CPT and affiliated with a number of human rights organisations in NZ and abroad.

1 “ISIS recruitment in Kurdistan all dried up”, Rudaw, 7 November 2014.

2 “ISIS claims suicide bombings in Iraq’s Erbil”, al Arabiya, 21 November 2014.

3 “Oral Question: 12. Iraq—Te Kaha Deployment”, House of Representatives, 25 February 2003. 4 Nicky Hager, “In the line of fire”, Sunday Star-Times, 14 December 2003.

5 “Anzac force nice ‘symbolism’ but not realistic – PM”, TVNZ, 27 February 2015.

6 “Sunnis may exit Iraq parliament after sheik’s slaying”, Washington Post, 14 February 2015.

7 “Australian special forces work with Iraqi security group accused of killing prisoners, torture”, Sydney Morning Herald, 10 January 2015.

8 “Special Report: Iraqi forces, images testify to atrocities in new fighting”, Reuters, 20 March 2014.

9 “Iraq: Secret Jail Uncovered in Baghdad”, Human Rights Watch, 1 February 2011.

10 “Iraq: Evidence of war crimes by government-backed Shi’a militias”, Amnesty International, 14 October 2014. 11 “UN reports serious human rights violations, potential war crimes in Iraq”, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, United Nations, 18 July 2014.

12 “Shiite Militia Drives Back Islamic State, but Divides Much of Iraq”, New York Times, 7 February 2015.

13 “Special Report: Inside Iraq’s ‘killing zones’”, Reuters, 17 December 172014.

14 “U.S.-led strikes have killed 865 people in Syria, 50 civilians: monitor”, Reuters, 12 November 2014. 15 “In shift, U.S. military says it is investigating credible civilian casualty reports in Iraq and Syria”, Washington Post, 6 January 2015.

16 “Iraq 2014: Civilian deaths almost doubling year on year”, Iraq Body Count, 1 January 2015.

17 “Iraq: UN envoy sees inclusive political process as critical to resolving crisis”, UN News Centre, 20 November 2014.

18 “Poll: NZers divided over IS military action”, 3News, 2 February 2015.

19 “Troop deployment to Iraq narrowly gets public support – poll”, TVNZ, 23 February 2015.

20 “Isis mission: Parliament deeply divided”, New Zealand Herald, 26 February 2015.

21 For examples of CPT’s work with UNAMI and ICRC, refer to: Peggy Faw Gish, Walking Through Fire: Iraqis’ Struggle for Justice and Reconciliation, Cascade Books (2013).

22 Seymour Hersh, “Chain of Command”, New Yorker, 17 May 2004.

23 “Video Broadcast of Kidnapped Members of Christian Peacemaker Teams that Helped Expose Abu Ghraib Prisoner Abuse Scandal”, Democracy Now!, 30 November 2005.

24 See Appendix.

25 “A Jill Carroll captor killed, says US military”, Christian Science Monitor, 4 May 2007.

26 “al-Qaida in Iraq Propagandist Killed”, Washington Post, 3 May 2007.

27 “Coalition Forces Capture Two Key al-Qaida Leaders in Baghdad”, American Forces Press Service, 25 August 2008.

28 “The War between ISIS and al-Qaeda for Supremacy of the Global Jihadist Movement”, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, June 2014.

29 “Ordeal over for kidnapped student”, New Zealand Herald, 24 March 2006.

30 “Camp Nama: British personnel reveal horrors of secret US base in Baghdad”, Guardian, 1 April 2013.

31 “RAF helicopter death revelation leads to secret Iraq detention camp”, Guardian, 7 February 2012.

32 “CIA interrogation report: Just what did the UK know?”, BBC, 18 December 2014.

33 “SAS and US special forces forming hunter killer unit to ‘smash Islamic State’”, Mirror, 23 August 2014. Appendix:

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Switzerland targets 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030

By Selwyn Manning -

February 27, 2015

MIL OSI –

Source: Switzerland – Federal Administration – Press Release/Statement:

Headline: Switzerland targets 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030

A new international climate agreement which will involve all States from 2020 is due to be concluded at the climate conference to be held in Paris in December 2015. All Member States of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are required to state their commitments for the post-2020 period in advance of the Paris summit.

This objective of a 50% reduction in emissions reflects Switzerland’s responsibility for climate warming and the potential cost of emissions reduction measures in Switzerland and abroad over the 2020-2030 period. Switzerland, which is responsible for 0.1% of global greenhouse gas emissions and, based on the structure of its economy, has a low level of emissions (6.4 tonnes per capita per year), should be able to avail of emissions reduction measures abroad to reduce the cost of emissions reduction measures during the period 2020-2030 (see Box 1). The fulfilment of part of the targeted reduction abroad will also enable the spreading of domestic measures over a longer period to account for capacities within the economy.

Switzerland’s target for 2020-2030 is also compatible with the pathway defined by climate experts to keep climate warming below two degrees between now and the end of the century (see Box 2).

At national level, a draft revision of the CO2 Act will be submitted for consultation in mid-2016.

Greater commitment for the climate

Thanks to the measures already implemented at national level, Switzerland emits less greenhouse gases today than in 1990 despite the fact that gross national product increased by 36% over the intervening period. Switzerland fulfilled its emissions reduction target for the first commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol (2008-2012).

This commitment has been increased for the period 2013-2020. The CO2 Act prescribes a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of 20% by 2020 to be achieved through domestic measures. The instruments established to fulfil this target include the CO2 tax on heating fuel, the reduction in CO2 emissions from new cars, the obligation for fuel importers to compensate for some of the CO2 emitted by transport and the Buildings Programme.

Box 1: A clear, transparent and understandable commitment

According to the decisions adopted by the climate conference in Lima, the commitment to be announced by the States for the post-2020 period must be clear, transparent and understandable. Switzerland has provided information under each of the seven key points identified in Lima which ensure the clarity of its commitment:

Reference point for the calculation of emissions reductions: 1990

Period for implementation: up to 2030

Scope of the commitment: sectors covered are energy, industrial processes and product use, agriculture, land-use, land-use change and forestry, waste; the reductions cover seven greenhouse gases: CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, HFCs (hydrofluorocarbons), PFCs (perfluorocarbons), SF6 (sulphur hexafluoride), NF3 (nitrogen trifluoride), that is the gases already covered by the current legislation.

Processes: a draft revision of the CO2 Act will be submitted for consultation in mid-2016; the proposed measures will mainly aim to reinforce existing measures.

Assumption and methodology: Switzerland’s commitment is based on the existence of emissions certificates which meet high quality criteria and are sufficient in quantity. The effect of forests will be taken into account. The methodology for non-forest land remains to be developed.

Adequacy of the commitment
Three criteria are taken into account:

Historical and current responsibility for climate change: Switzerland is responsible for 0.1% of global greenhouse gas emissions today. Its level of responsibility is low.

Capacity to contribute to solving the climate problem: thanks inter alia to its high per capita GNP, Switzerland’s capacity to contribute to solving the climate problem is high.

Cost-effectiveness of emissions reduction measures: due to its mainly carbon-free energy production and lack of heavy industry, the cost of reduction measures in Switzerland is high in the short term.

Contribution to the objective of the Convention (increase in temperature of less than two degrees): the reduction target of -50% relative to 1990 levels is compatible with the recommendations of the IPCC of -40 to -70% below 2010 levels by 2050.

Box 2 Objective in the context of the two degree pathway

According to the objectives defined by the Federal Council for 2030 and 2050, i.e. -50% relative to 1990 and -70 to -85% by 2050, per capita annual emissions must reach 3 tonnes of CO2 equivalents per year in 2030, and between 1 and 2 tonnes of CO2 by 2050. Hence Switzerland’s targets lie within the ambitious average of the climate experts’ (IPPC) recommendations for 2050. This emissions development is also in line with the Federal Council’s long-term objective of reducing per capita emissions to one or one-and-a-half tonnes.

Address for enquiries:

DETEC Press and Information Service + 41 (0)58 462 55 11
FOEN Media Section + 41 (0)58 462 90 00

Publisher:

The Federal Council: Internet: http://www.admin.ch/br/index.html?lang=en
General Secretariat of the Federal Department of Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications; General Secretariat DETEC: Internet: http://www.uvek.admin.ch/index.html?lang=en
Federal Office for the Environment FOEN: Internet: http://www.bafu.admin.ch/en

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Six months after ceasefire, children of Gaza are trapped in trauma

By Selwyn Manning -

February 27, 2015

MIL OSI –

Source: UNICEF – Press Release/Statement:

Headline: Six months after ceasefire, children of Gaza are trapped in trauma

In the State of Palestine, children continue to recover from the violence that engulfed Gaza during July and August 2014.

Download this video

By Catherine Weibel

After losing their father and their home during the most recent conflict, two young girls in Gaza struggle to come to terms with the past and look to a brighter future.

GAZA, State of Palestine, 26 February 2015 – It has been six months since a precarious truce ended another devastating bout of violence in Gaza. For children like Samar and Rosol Barakat, the scars left by 51 days of hostilities last summer are as raw as ever.

During the conflict, the two girls, their parents and three other siblings fled their flat under heavy shelling. The family took refuge in a United Nations–run school. One night, the classroom in which they slept was hit by an artillery shell. Their father was killed, and their mother seriously injured. Both girls were wounded by shrapnel.

Homes destroyed

Samar, who is 11 years old, and Rosol, who is 6, could not go back to their home at the al-Nada residential towers, which had been destroyed. They moved in with their grandfather, among 12 people squeezed into a tiny and derelict two-bedroom flat in Beit Lahiya.

The family were among 100,000 Palestinians in Gaza, half of them children, who had their homes either partially or totally destroyed during last summer’s conflict and remain displaced.

“My children have lost everything, and they need everything,” says Samar and Rosol’s mother, Neveen. “I have to be both their mother and their father now.” Because of her injuries, Neveen has a disability and needs help to take care of herself.

No safe place

Samar and Rosol continue to suffer profound distress. Neveen constantly comforts her daughters as the two girls struggle to cope with the loss of their father.

It was months before Rosol agreed to wear her school uniform and return to school. When asked whether she likes her teacher, she freezes, becomes withdrawn and, after a few minutes, starts sobbing.

“My children were injured in a school,” says Neveen. “They saw people injured with missing hands or legs, with wounded faces and eyes. They saw her father killed. They no longer see school as a safe place.”

Some improvement

A psychosocial counsellor working for UNICEF partner Palestinian Centre for Democracy and Conflict Resolution (PCDCR) follows the progress of Rosol and her older sister Samar.

Samar has shown some signs of improvement. In the aftermath of the conflict, she had temper tantrums and refused to do her homework. After a number of sessions with the counsellor, she has become calmer.

Sometimes, Samar goes with her grandfather to see what is left of her former home, now reduced to rubble. While she has come closer to accepting the situation, she still finds it difficult to focus on her studies, and her learning achievements have dropped.

“At school, everything has changed, because of what happened to us. Our father was killed, my mom, my siblings and I were injured, and we no longer have a home,” Samar says.

Need for continuing support

Like many children in Gaza, Samar and Rosol need both psychosocial and educational support to resume their lives. The involvement of schools is critical in supporting students through the emotional and physical challenges they face. At least 281 schools were damaged in the coastal enclave, however, and many have yet to be repaired. Adding to the difficulty of the situation, teachers themselves suffer from distress.

So far, UNICEF has provided nearly 35,000 children and more than 7,000 caregivers with psychosocial support, and 12,000 public school teachers with additional coping skills to support children. UNICEF is also helping to repair public schools and provide school uniforms and shoes to children, after an initial back-to-school campaign in September that supported 230,000 children with school supplies. These efforts have helped improve students’ lives, but the situation remains precarious.

“There is no future for anyone in Gaza, men, women or children,” Ali, Neveen’s father, says. “A lot of promises have been made on the reconstruction of Gaza. We hope there is implementation at last, so my daughter can be treated and recover from her wounds, and so people who lost their homes like she did have a place to live and a better life.

“My grandchildren deserve to lead a good life,” he says. “Like all children in the world.”

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Tasmania sets benchmark by extending fracking ban

By Selwyn Manning -

February 27, 2015

MIL OSI –

Source: Australian Green Party – Press Release/Statement:

Headline: Tasmania sets benchmark by extending fracking ban

The Liberal Tasmanian Government yesterday extended their fracking ban for another five years, setting a clear benchmark for parties contesting the upcoming Gippsland South by-election.

Victorian Greens leader Greg Barber welcomed the Tasmanian Government’s policy, saying “it is now time for Victorian Opposition leader Matt Guy to do the same.”

“The Nationals support for farmers’ right to veto gas exploration on their land is a step in the right direction, but a permanent ban is vital.

“The Greens will be closely watching the Liberal and National announcements on this issue,” Mr Barber said.

* http://www.premier.tas.gov.au/releases/fracking

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Syria’s war continues ‘unabated and with total impunity,’ Security Council told

By Selwyn Manning -

February 27, 2015

MIL OSI – Source: United Nations – Press Release/Statement: Headline: Syria’s war continues ‘unabated and with total impunity,’ Security Council told 26 February 2015 In a briefing to the Security Council on the humanitarian situation in Syria, two senior United Nations relief officials warned today that as the conflict enters its fifth year, the violence and brutality continue unabated and with total impunity. Assistant Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Deputy Emergency Relief Coordinator, Kyung-Wha Kang told the 15-member body that parties to the conflict continue to kill civilians and target critical infrastructure which condemn people to unnecessary suffering. Ms. Kang delivered remarks on behalf of Under Secretary-General and Emergency Relief Coordinator, Valery Amos. Joining Ms. Kang was António Guterres, UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). “Every month we report on the same violations. The numbers change, but the pattern remains the same. The parties to the conflict continue to act with impunity: killing and abducting civilians; denying access; removing vital supplies from convoys. This pattern must be broken,” Ms. Kang stressed. Over 2 million people in Aleppo and Dar’a Governorates have been affected by wilful denial of water and electricity by parties to the conflict this month. Of the 212,000 people who are besieged, in conditions that deteriorate every day, only 304 were reached with food in January. In other areas where conditions deteriorate every day, parties to the conflict severely restrict access to those in need. In Raqqa and Deir ez Zor, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has closed down the offices of several aid organisations, including the Syrian Arab Red Crescent. “Some 600,000 people have not received food assistance in these governorates since last December. The sick or wounded often have nowhere safe to get treatment,” said Ms. Kang. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has succeeded in sending life-saving medicine and medical supplies from Damascus to rural Aleppo for some 65,000 treatments but many of the surgical items including midwifery and reproductive kits were removed by Government security personnel at one of the checkpoints. The Council must do everything in its power to hold parties accountable and ensure that aid is delivered to people in need. Humanitarian organizations operating in besieged Syria and in neighbouring countries continue to reach millions of people every month. In January, some 3.4 million people were reached with food assistance while hundreds of thousands were also reached with medicines, household items and other supplies. “But it is not enough. More effort must be made to deescalate the violence, protect and enable humanitarian organisations to give more support,” the Special Coordinator said, emphasising the need to secure the freeze in fighting in some parties of Aleppo so that humanitarian agencies can deliver food, remove debris and get children back into school. Ms. Kang said she was extremely concerned that two UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) staff has been asked to leave the country without any reason given. “This will hinder our work tremendously,” she said, urging the Government to reverse its decision. OCHA’s response cannot keep up with the needs of Syria’s people because there is simply not enough funding. By the end of last year, the Syria Humanitarian Assistance Response Plan for 2014 was just 48 per cent funded. Lack of funding has already forced the World Food Programme (WFP) to reduce rations by 30 per cent. And for every million dollars that WHO cannot raise in Syria, some 227,000 people lose vital health services. And unless urgent funding is received before May 2015, a million children will not be able to access education. Ms. Kang said she looked forward to the next pledging conference to be held on 31 March in Kuwait, expressing hope that the funds acquired there will make a difference on the ground. Echoing that sentiment, UNHCR head António Guterres, said that the Kuwait III conference will play a determining role in stabilizing the situation in the refugee hosting countries because international support has been far from keeping pace with the magnitude of needs. The Syrian refugee crisis has overwhelmed existing response capacities with 3.8 million registered in neighbouring countries. In Lebanon and Jordan, these populations have grown exponentially and Turkey is now the biggest refugee-hosting country in the world. “The continued growth in displacement is staggering. And the nature of the refugee crisis is changing. As the level of despair rises, the available protection space shrinks, we are approaching a dangerous turning point,” Mr. Guterres warned. Refugee resources are depleted and living conditions are drastically deteriorating. Host communities are severely overstretched. And the refugee influx has heavily impacted the economies and societies of Lebanon, Jordan and Northern Iraq in particular, overwhelming resources. Almost two million Syrian refugees under 18 years of age risk becoming a lost generation and many of the over 100,000 refugee children born in exile could become stateless under Syrian law. If not addressed properly, this crisis-in-the-making will have huge consequences for the region. Mr. Guterres also expressed concern over those risking their lives to find protection in Europe and called for flexible visa policies, expanded family reunification, academic scholarships and private sponsor schemes. – –]]>

Otago researcher wins prestigious Harkness Fellowship

By Selwyn Manning -

February 27, 2015

MIL OSI –

Source: University of Otago – Press Release/Statement:

Headline: Otago researcher wins prestigious Harkness Fellowship

Friday, 27 February 2015 11:51am

Jennifer Moore image Dr Jennifer Moore

Dr Jennifer Moore from Otago’s Law Faculty, and the Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, has won a prestigious Harkness Fellowship in Healthcare Policy and Practice.

As the recipient of the Commonwealth Fund-endowed Fellowship, Dr Moore will spend one year in the US researching alternatives to medical malpractice, starting in August 2015.

“I am thrilled to be the New Zealand 2015-2016 Harkness Fellow in Health Care Policy and Practice. It is an honour to receive such a prestigious fellowship. The Commonwealth Fund and the Harkness programme have an outstanding reputation. Like the Commonwealth Fund, I’m committed to using high-quality research to improve health systems,” says Dr Moore.

Her multi-disciplinary research will aim to inform the design of communication-and-resolution programmes (CRPs) in the US. Such CRPs seek to identify and disclose medical injuries, improve quality of care, and offer apology and compensation.

“The core of the research is the impact of compensation on the doctor-patient relationship. I will collect data in New Zealand and the United States to investigate the factors that harm or help the doctor-patient relationship after a medical injury,” says Dr Moore.

“There is speculation and anecdotal evidence that recent ACC medical injury case law in New Zealand is discouraging doctors from assisting their patients to make claims with ACC. This will be the first empirical health law study in New Zealand to investigate that. So the findings will be useful for ACC policymakers, providers and injured patients here too. The results of the study will contribute to health policy and law reform both here and in the United States.”

Dr Moore says it is perfect timing to perform this research because the Obama administration has shown a keen interest in CRPs. This year, the United States Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality stated that they plan to continue developing CRPs, including an implementation toolkit and training modules. One major aim is for the research findings to inform these toolkits and modules, and the overall design of CRPs.

Dr Moore adds: “I have always wanted to work with the preeminent health law and policy scholars in the United States. My proposed US mentors, Professor Michelle Mello and Professor David Studdert, are unquestionably two of the leading empirical and theoretical scholars in my proposed area of research. My proposed home-country mentors, Dr Marie Bismark and Professor Peter Crampton, are both Harkness alumni with outstanding track records in health policy research.

“I’m delighted that I have received the Harkness Fellowship at this time. I have been following President Obama’s recent health reforms and waiting for the appropriate time to undertake my study. The time has arrived, and I cannot wait to begin the work!”

Dr Jennifer Moore
Faculty of Law
University of Otago
Email: jennifer.moore@otago.ac.nz

A list of Otago experts available for media comment is available elsewhere on this website.

Electronic addresses (including email accounts, instant messaging services, or telephone accounts) published on this page are for the sole purpose of contact with the individuals concerned, in their capacity as officers, employees or students of the University of Otago, or their respective organisation. Publication of any such electronic address is not to be taken as consent to receive unsolicited commercial electronic messages by the address holder.

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Young man died avoiding large object in the road

By Selwyn Manning -

February 27, 2015

MIL OSI –

Source: New Zealand Police – Press Release/Statement:

Headline: Young man died avoiding large object in the road

Home » News » Young man died avoiding large object in the road

Bay of Plenty

Police investigating a fatal crash on SH2 in Whakamarama are now able to confirm that the man who died was a French National in his 20s who had been in New Zealand since late last year.

An investigation into the crash is ongoing, but it appears that a large object fell from a truck into the path of the young man’s car. He had to take evasive action, swerving to the left to avoid colliding with the object. In doing so it appears he lost control of the vehicle veered back across the road and collided with a truck and trailer unit travelling in the opposite direction.

Police are currently liaising with family through the French Embassy. No further details about the young man will be released until Police are satisfied that all family notifications have been carried out.

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Appointments to Lottery Distribution Committees

By Selwyn Manning -

February 27, 2015

MIL OSI –

Source: New Zealand Government – Press Release/Statement:

Headline: Appointments to Lottery Distribution Committees

Internal Affairs Minister Peter Dunne today announced 13 new members to ten Lottery distribution committees with terms commencing on 2 March 2015.

“Distribution committees fund a range of great projects and programmes and make a major contribution to communities up and down the country. The new appointees bring a wealth of knowledge, experience and community connections, and will help ensure the committees continue to be well-placed to do their work”, says Mr Dunne.

Kassandra Jackson from Wanaka and Joy Paterson from Twizel have been appointed to the Lottery Individuals with Disabilities Committee.

Heather Tanguay JP from Auckland has been appointed to the Lottery Marae Heritage and Facilities Committee.

Garth Clarricoats from New Plymouth has been appointed to the Lottery National Safety Committee and Lottery Outdoor Safety Committee – the two committees share the same membership.

Dr Bridget Mosley has been appointed to the Lottery World War One Commemorations, Environment and Heritage Committee, and Bruce Hamilton has been promoted to Presiding Member.

Jackie Black from Havelock North has been appointed to the Lottery Hawke’s Bay Community Committee.

Hamish Walker from Dunedin and Margot Hishon from Winton have been appointed to the Lottery Otago/Southland Community Committee.

Beverley Gibson from New Plymouth has been appointed to the Lottery Taranaki Community Committee.

Jason Sebestian from Hamilton and Simon Lockwood from Cambridge have been appointed to the Lottery Waikato Community Committee, and Sue King is acting as Presiding Member.

Elizabeth Sneyd from Wellington has been appointed to the Lottery Wellington/Wairarapa Community Committee.

Lottery Distribution Committees make grants for community purposes, using money allocated by the Lottery Grants Board from the profits of New Zealand lotteries. There are nine national committees focused on particular themes or issues and 11 regional committees with a general community focus.

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Auckland building consents: Tragic

By Selwyn Manning -

February 27, 2015

MIL OSI –

Source: New Zealand Labour Party – Press Release/Statement:

Headline: Auckland building consents: Tragic

The only word to describe the latest building consent figures for Auckland is ‘tragic’, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says.

“Whatever the Government is doing to address the Auckland housing crisis, it is clearly not working.

“Today’s data shows Auckland building consents have declined for two months in a row. The numbers of consents for the city are now less than half what they were in November: 967 in November, 630 in December, and 482 in January

“Nationwide, even on a seasonally-adjusted basis, consents fell 3.8 per cent this month. When you exclude the number for apartments – which include retirement villages and are prone to variation – they fell 7.5 per cent.

“At last month’s rate, Auckland would build only 5784 houses over a year when it needs 13,000 just to keep up with population growth.

“This pathetic build rate, combined with record immigration, banks falling over themselves to offer mortgage finance, and rampant property speculation, means Auckland’s out of control house price inflation will just continue under this National Government.”

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Circus theme for Shakespeare’s King Lear

By Selwyn Manning -

February 27, 2015

MIL OSI –

Source: Massey University – Press Release/Statement:

Headline: Circus theme for Shakespeare’s King Lear

Ralph Johnson as King Lear with Massey student Kat Sowerby playing the Fool, at a Summer Shakespeare rehearsal.

Director Jaime Dorner with King Lear played by Ralph Johnson

The tragedy of King Lear gets a makeover as a freak show/circus in this year’s Summer Shakespeare, directed by Chilean-born dramatist and Massey University Visiting Artist Jaime Dörner.

Dörner says the freak show concept – with a bearded Goneril and two-headed Regan as Lear’s avaricious daughters – is designed to bring out the grotesque aspects of the characters’ natures. Their husbands, the Dukes of Albany and Cornwall, assume circus personas as a strongman and knife-thrower.

And King Lear, played by seasoned thespian and drama teacher Ralph Johnson, will take on a freakish appearance with the help of makeup and prosthetics.

King Lear starts on Thursday, 5 March at the Victoria Esplanade Gardens in Palmerston North. Costumes have all been designed and made for the show, and gypsy-flavoured circus music composed by musical director Suzy Hawes will add to the colourful, carnival extravaganza.

Dörner, who is directing a Summer Shakespeare production in Palmerston North for the second time as a Massey University Visiting Artist (the first was A Midsummer Night’s Dream four years ago), says his aim was to create a strong aesthetic that would underpin the “outrageous” motivations of the Lear family, and the drama of the story.

The plot revolves around the decision of the elderly King Lear to divide his kingdom and wealth between his three daughters in return for a declaration of their affections. Greed, betrayal, madness and grief ensue as the family self-destructs and Lear teeters towards the realisation of what genuine love means.

Dörner, who has lived in New Zealand for nine years including seven in Palmerston North, says he was not a huge fan of Shakespeare when he first encountered his plays at high school in Chile, where he read the texts in Spanish translation.

In New Zealand, he discovered a passion for the narratives and language of the Bard, with Hamlet his all-time favourite.

Massey University third-year Bachelor of Arts (English) student Kat Sowerby, who plays the Fool and is one of several Massey students involved in the production, says performing on stage is a dream come true. She saw Dörner’s A Midsummer Nights’ Dream and longed to be up on stage but was too shy to consider acting then.

During her degree she has taken every theatre paper taught by award-winning playwright and School of English and Media Studies lecturer Associate Professor Angie Farrow and says she has gained a lot more confidence along the way.

She has discovered her love of literature – especially New Zealand fiction – and is hoping to do postgraduate study. Enrolling in a BA was the best decision, she says, as it has opened up numerous areas of interest. “I love learning, and see myself as a life-long learner.”

Ms Sowerby is one of three Fools – all played by women – in Dörner’s King Lear.

Set designer Leda Farrow is also applying her studies to the stage. She has a Fine Arts degree with First Class Honours from the College of Creative Arts in Wellington.

The production is Dörner’s final work as a director in Palmerston North. He is heading to Monash University in Melbourne to do a PhD on the cathartic and healing powers of theatre.

Dr Farrow says the Summer Shakespeare is very much a “town-gown production.”

Massey is the major sponsor of Summer Shakespeare, which is also supported by the city’s Creative Communities and Eastern Central Trust. It was initiated 13 years ago and is produced annually by the School of English and Media Studies.

Show details:

Dates: March 5 ,6,7,12,13, and 14

Time: 7.30pm

Entry: Free

Where: Victoria Esplanade Gardens, Fitzherbert Avenue, Palmerston North

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Dwelling consents up in January

By Selwyn Manning -

February 27, 2015

Headline: Dwelling consents up in January

The number of new dwellings consented was 3.6 percent higher in January 2015, compared with January 2014, Statistics New Zealand said today. Excluding apartments, this number was 6.8 percent lower.

A total of 1,703 new dwellings were consented in January 2015 (including 314 apartments).

The regions that consented the most new dwellings were:

Auckland – 482 (including 112 apartments)
Canterbury – 467 (including 42 apartments)
Waikato – 180 (including 72 apartments).

“The trend for new dwellings is rising and is at its highest level since July 2007. Excluding apartments, the trend is flat,” business indicators manager Neil Kelly said.

The seasonally adjusted number of new dwellings consented decreased 3.8 percent in January 2015. Excluding apartments, this number fell 7.5 percent.

In unadjusted terms, nearly $1 billion of building work was consented in January – $645 million of residential work and $351 million of non-residential work.

Data for building consents is obtained from all territorial authorities.

We are changing what building consents statistics we publish. See Changes to our time series and classifications in the Data quality section of the information release.

Ends

For media enquiries contact: Neil Kelly, Christchurch 03 964 8700, info@stats.govt.nz

Authorised by Liz MacPherson, Government Statistician, 27 February 2015

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New toolkit to help DHBs in suicide prevention

By Selwyn Manning -

February 27, 2015

Headline: New toolkit to help DHBs in suicide prevention

Health Minister Jonathan Coleman says a new resource released today is designed to help DHBs, in partnership with their communities, prevent and respond to suicide.

“Suicide is a serious concern for New Zealand. Around 500 New Zealanders take their own lives every year,” says Dr Coleman.

“While there is some evidence that overall suicide rates in New Zealand have declined over time, the rates remain too high, particularly for young people and Māori.”

The Ministry of Health, DHB staff, health professionals, community organisations, and experts in the field have co-developed a new web-resource which includes links to research, programmes and services.

The resource will help inform work underway in DHBs to reduce suicide rates and will be updated over time, with regular opportunities for DHBs to provide feedback and additions.

“We know that the factors that contribute to suicide are complex and there are no quick fixes. The work DHBs are doing to develop plans to help prevent and respond to suicide in their communities is an important part of a much wider work programme,” says Dr Coleman.

This new resource for DHBs is one of 30 initiatives in the New Zealand Suicide Prevention Action Plan 2013-2016.

The Plan builds on existing work in suicide prevention, with an emphasis on helping communities and frontline workers to identify and respond to suicidal behaviour, reducing the impact of suicide on communities, and building the capacity of Māori and Pasifika communities to prevent suicide.

Around $25 million has been allocated across eight Government agencies to implement these initiatives.

DHBs can access the free resource via the Ministry of Health website www.health.govt.nz.

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A whiff of a new biosecurity scandal?

By Selwyn Manning -

February 27, 2015

Headline: A whiff of a new biosecurity scandal?

A pest which could create havoc for New Zealand’s horticulture and agriculture sector must be as much a focus for the Government as hunting out fruit flies, Labour’s Biosecurity spokesperson Damien O’Connor says.

“While the Ministry for Primary Industries is tearing around looking for fruit flies, an even worse pest – the brown marmorated stink bug – may be establishing itself here.”

Considered to be among the most destructive and invasive plant pests through Asia and the United States a number of the bugs have been found in New Zealand over the last six months.

“They live up to their name – they are voracious feeders and a colony here would put almost every crop at risk, including export fruit, produce for the domestic market and garden roses.

“A weak biosecurity system and lax border controls have now allowed two extremely aggressive plant pests to enter the country.

“This once again reeks of a Government failing to take the issue as seriously as it should,” Damien O’Connor says.

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R&D tax changes for SMEs & Bodies Corporate GST rules

By Selwyn Manning -

February 27, 2015

Headline: R&D tax changes for SMEs & Bodies Corporate GST rules

KPMG welcomes R&D tax changes for SMEs, and GST rules for Bodies Corporate

KPMG says key changes in the Tax Bill released yesterday will be welcomed by business.

The key proposal in the Tax Bill is to allow start-up businesses undertaking R&D to cash up their tax losses.

“The proposal, announced in last year’s Budget, will be welcomed by start-ups in the high-tech sectors, as it will provide some additional cash flow when the business needs it most”, says Paul McPadden, National Managing Partner of KPMG Private Enterprise. However, he advises caution as the refunds will be capped and the business will also need to meet certain other requirements to qualify for relief.

“One of the challenges for business is understanding the different types of Government assistance available”, says McPadden. He says businesses need to do their homework as the Government has committed significant funding for R&D and innovation over the last few years, through grants and other means, but only a fraction of this is currently being accessed.

“One of the first steps should be talking to your business advisor. There is also a role for the Government agencies responsible for this funding to better link with business and their advisors”, according to McPadden.

“The Government has also listened to concerns about the GST treatment of bodies corporate and introduced proposals which are more workable”, says Peter Scott, KPMG GST Partner.

The concern is whether fees for services provided to members (such as building maintenance, insurance, and security) are subject to GST and, correspondingly, whether a body corporate can claim back the GST on costs incurred. IRD released a view last year saying they were, which caused concern as some bodies corporate were claiming and paying GST while others were not. In response the Government consulted on a possible legislative change in June 2014.

“The result of that consultation, the proposal in the Tax Bill, clarifies that previous GST positions do not have to be revisited”, says Scott.

That is, if a body corporate has previously registered for GST it can continue to pay (and claim back) GST, while those that have not can either remain unregistered or GST register with accompanying tax obligations.

“This is a considerable improvement over the Government’s original proposal, which was to treat bodies corporate members’ fees as GST exempt in all cases and deny GST claims on bodies corporate expenditure”, says Scott. “That would have resulted in considerable compliance costs, including having to repay GST refunds and/or claim back GST already paid. We therefore welcome the change of approach.”

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Antarctic trawl nets deep data

By Selwyn Manning -

February 27, 2015

Headline: Video: Antarctic trawl nets deep data

NIWA scientists aboard RV Tangaroa have been trawling the central Ross Sea calculating the abundance of the prey species.

The trawl through the Antarctic waters at about 72 degrees south, concentrates on the area where about 3000 tonnes of toothfish are harvested each year. The catch revealed rattails, icefish, glacial squid, and silverfish and a number of unusual fish and inverterbrates.

While the scientists are less interested in the toothfish than in the health and abundance of the fish they feed on, they did catch a healthy specimen during the trawl. The fish was measured, tagged and released according to CAMLAR protocols.

Tangaroa is four weeks into a six-week research voyage investigating the foodwebs that support the oceans top predators – humpback whales, blue whales and toothfish.

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More medicines for rare disorders to be funded

By Selwyn Manning -

February 27, 2015

Headline: More medicines for rare disorders to be funded

Health Minister Jonathan Coleman says people with rare disorders will benefit from Pharmac’s new funding approach for rare disorders medicines.

Pharmac has announced that 28 proposals from eight suppliers emerged from its request for proposals for rare disorders medicines.

“Pharmac’s new process for rare disorders medicines aims to encourage competition and remove barriers to better access to rare disorders medicines,” says Dr Coleman.

“Providing access to medicines for very small groups of patients is a shared responsibility. It is encouraging that so many suppliers have stepped up and engaged with Pharmac to develop new funding options.

“I look forward to Pharmac concluding negotiations over the next few months so that New Zealanders can gain benefits from these medicines.”

Pharmac has identified up to $5 million per year for the next five years for funding a rare disorders contestable pilot. Proposals from suppliers were sought in August 2014.

Each medicine funding proposal will be subject to public consultation. The first decisions are likely to be made in mid 2015.

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NZ Super Fund files English legal proceedings in Oak Finance matter

By Selwyn Manning -

February 27, 2015

MIL OSI –

Source: New Zealand Superannuation Fund – Press Release/Statement:

Headline: NZ Super Fund files English legal proceedings in Oak Finance matter

New Zealand Superannuation Fund confirmed today that it had filed debt recovery proceedings in the English courts against Novo Banco.

The Oak Finance investors will also shortly be filing public law proceedings in Portugal against the Bank of Portugal, challenging the validity of the Bank’s decision purporting to retransfer the Oak Finance loan, with retroactive effect, from Novo Banco to Banco Espirito Santo.

Ends

Editors: please note that further comments will be limited due to legal proceedings.

Media contact:

Catherine Etheredge, Head of Communications, NZ Super Fund, cetheredge@nzsuperfund.co.nz, +64 274 777 501

Glen Cameron, European media contact, +44 7500 058 202, glen.cameron@sweeneyvesty.com

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Security Council condemns abduction of Syrian Christians by ISIL

By Selwyn Manning -

February 27, 2015

MIL OSI –

Source: United Nations 4 – Press Release/Statement:

Headline: Security Council condemns abduction of Syrian Christians by ISIL

26 February 2015 The United Nations Security Council has strongly condemned the abduction of more than 100 Assyrians, as well as the destruction and desecration of Christian and other sites in northeast Syria this week by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

“Such crimes once again demonstrate the brutality of ISIL which is responsible for thousands of crimes and abuses against people from all faiths, ethnicities and nationalities and without regard to any basic value of humanity,” the 15-member UN body said in a statement issued to the press yesterday evening and which refereed to the group by its its Arabic acronym, Da’esh.

ISIL/Da’esh militants have reportedly taken hostage more than 200 Assyrians as they stormed villages in northeast Syria this week.

In their statement, Council members demanded the immediate and unconditional release of all those abducted by ISIL, Al-Nusra Front and all other individuals, groups, undertakings and entities associated with Al-Qaida, and stressed that those responsible for such heinous acts must be held accountable.

The Security Council also strongly condemned all acts of violence against civilians including those committed on the basis of their ethnicity, religion or belief.

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7 out of 10 Doctors: Climate Change Is Already Harming Patients’ Health

By Selwyn Manning -

February 27, 2015

MIL OSI –

Source: United States White House – Press Release/Statement:

Headline: 7 out of 10 Doctors: Climate Change Is Already Harming Patients’ Health

Brian Deese

February 26, 2015
02:08 PM EST

Two-thirds of the American people believe climate change is a serious problem, and that the government should take action to address it. It shouldn’t be surprising that our nation’s doctors do, too — nearly 90 percent of them.

Today, the American Thoracic Society (ATS) will hit the halls of Congress to educate our representatives about a new survey of more than 900 ATS members, which found the majority of doctors believe climate change is already negatively affecting the health of their patients. In fact, 77 percent of respondents reported that increases in air pollution due to climate change are worsening the severity of illnesses in their patients, and they expect these health impacts will further increase in the future.

ATS members also indicated that their patients are experiencing other climate-related health problems — including injuries due to severe weather, allergic reactions, and heat-related impacts. These findings are in line with the results of a survey of the National Medical Association’s members last year, which also found that the sick, elderly, and people living below the poverty line will be disproportionately impacted by climate change.

Already, 1 in 10 children in the U.S. suffers from asthma. Heat-related health problems are growing. Pollen concentrations are up. Rising temperatures are only going to bring more smog, more asthma, and longer allergy seasons that put more Americans at greater risk of landing in the hospital.

As the evidence shows us, we can’t stand on the sidelines and be the first generation to fail at that most basic human instinct — to leave our children a safer, more prosperous world.

That is why we are so committed to executing the President’s Climate Action Plan.

To learn more about how the Obama administration is acting on climate, visit WhiteHouse.gov/climate-change.

Brian Deese is Senior Advisor to President Obama.

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Audio+Text: New Zealand Report – Australia’s Five AA: NZ PM Criticised For Deployment to Iraq

By Selwyn Manning -

February 27, 2015

Selwyn Manning.[/caption] Audio/Text: New Zealand Report with Selwyn Manning, Dave Penberthy, Jane Reilly and Mark Aiston. Recorded live on 27/02/15. Item One: Australia and New Zealand prime ministers meet to discuss terrorism and security. Item Two: World Cup Cricket Australia V New Zealand! Back in Australia Tony Abbott’s hold on the prime ministerial leadership is again under threat, but here in New Zealand it will be business as usual as he meets with the Kiwi Prime Minister John Key in the annual Australia NZ leaders’ bilateral meeting. Terrorism and both domestic and international security will be the significant issues to be discussed. ITEM ONE: Australia’s Prime Minister Tony Abbott is in New Zealand today (Friday) for the annual Australia-New Zealand leaders’s meeting. Significantly, Abbott and New Zealand’s Prime Minister John Key will discuss the terrorism threat confronting both countries, domestic security operations and legislation, the Australia and New Zealand military deployments to Iraq, and the legalities of our own defence forces providing the necessary security for themselves. This week, the New Zealand Government committed 143 personnel to deploy to Iraq for a maximum of two years – but only 16 or the 143 personnel are actually trainers. While, unlike Abbott, John Key enjoys strong popularity on his home turf, this week he has been strongly criticised for his decision to commit New Zealand to this conflict against Islamic State. The country is divided in the issue. In the Legislature, 60 members supported going to Iraq, 60 opposed the decision. Public polls reported 49 percent in support, 43 percent against joining the conflict. (Contrast this to solid public and political support for New Zealand’s role in RAMSI, the Regional Assistance Mission to the Solomon Islands. Kiwis seem to remember there was little extra-regional military support for the Solomons crisis, nor was an international contingent forthcoming when Australia and New Zealand deployed to East Timor in 1999 onwards.) However, John Key was clearly keen to send soldiers to this Iraq conflict, even without a United Nations security council resolution. And his leadership on the matter has been wanting. He continues to insist New Zealand’s specialised SAS combat troopers will not be sent to Iraq, while insisting the NZ contingent based in Taji base north of Baghdad will be provided security. The trouble is, Key will not detail who will provide that security. When it came to making a formal decision, the Prime Minister dithered, was hesitant, was less forthcoming with the New Zealand public than were visiting foreign ministers. In short, he failed to convince Kiwis that New Zealand Government was operating in-line with its well paraded independent foreign policy. Critics have lined up against Key from all sides of this debate. ITEM TWO: The weather looks perfect for Saturday’s Cricket World Cup match between Australia and New Zealand at Eden Park here in Auckland. And during the innings break of Saturday’s game, New Zealand cricketing great, master batsman, Martin Crowe, will be inducted into the International Cricket Council’s hall of fame. Only two other Kiwis have been given the honour, Sir Richard Hadlee and Debbie Hockley. Martin Crowe played 77 tests, scoring 5444 test runs at an average of 45.36, including 17 centuries, the most by a New Zealander. Crowe also played 143 one-day internationals, scoring 4704 runs at an average of 38.55. New Zealand Report broadcasts live on FiveAA Australia, and webcasts on LiveNews.co.nz and ForeignAffairs.co.nz. –]]>

US astronauts step out on spacewalk

By Selwyn Manning -

February 26, 2015

MIL OSI –

Source: China State Council Information Office – Press Release/Statement:

Headline: US astronauts step out on spacewalk

US astronauts step out on spacewalk [NASA] Two American astronauts yesterday stepped out on the second of three spacewalks to prepare the International Space Station for the arrival of commercial capsules ferrying astronauts in the coming years.

Commander Barry “Butch” Wilmore and flight engineer Terry Virts emerged from the station airlock after placing their suits on internal battery power at 6:51am, NASA said.
The astronauts are both wearing helmet cameras that allow viewers on Earth to experience the spacewalkers’ perspective, as part of a live broadcast on NASA television and on its website.
The team’s goal for the six-and-a-half hour spacewalk is to route two bundles of cable, lubricate parts of the space station’s robotic arm and prepare for another operation later this year to move modules around at the orbiting outpost.
The lubrication of the end of the Canadian-made robotic arm, called Canadarm, will take about three hours, said NASA commentator Rob Navias.
The work aims to set up additional docking ports, which are essentially parking spots for space taxis, at the ISS for the arrival of more crew-carrying spacecraft.
Boeing plans to send its first astronaut to space aboard the CST-100 spaceship in late 2017, followed by SpaceX soon after.
During the first outing by Wilmore and Virts on Saturday, the pair routed 110 meters of cable, with goal of setting up 213 meters by the end of the final spacewalk of this series on Sunday.
Several more spacewalks in the coming months will help get the station ready for the arrival of a pair of international docking adapters that will be delivered later this year. Traffic to the ISS is expected to increase once private industries like SpaceX and Boeing get their crew capsules up and running.
The flights will restore US access to the orbiting lab where global crews of astronauts live together for six months at a time. The retirement of the 30-year space shuttle program in 2011 left the United States without a spaceship that could send astronauts to low-Earth orbit.

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Trio of quakes shake New Zealand

By Selwyn Manning -

February 26, 2015

Headline: Trio of quakes shake New Zealand

A trio of earthquakes have shaken parts of New Zealand this morning.

A magnitude 4.8 quake struck 105 kilometres north of White Island in the Bay of Plenty, at a depth of 30km just after 8.30am, GeoNet said.

GeoNet It described the quake’s intensity as “moderate” and 30 minutes after the jolt 20 people reported to GeoNet’s website that they had felt it.

It followed a 4.7 quake at almost exactly the same spot on Monday.

Earlier this morning, two quakes struck the South Island.

At 1.29am, there was a 4.8 earthquake 75 km west of Te Anau, Fiordland, at a depth of 14km. Fourteen people said they felt that one.

Then at 1.40am, a 4.6 earthquake was detected 45km east of St Arnaud, in the Tasman District, at a depth of 24km. More than 100 people said they felt this quake, with the majority in Nelson/Marlborough.

[View the stuff website news page]

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NZ Super Fund performing well, breaks $28 billion mark

By Selwyn Manning -

February 26, 2015

Headline: NZ Super Fund performing well, breaks $28 billion mark

Comments from Mr Gavin Walker, Chairman, and Adrian Orr, Chief Executive of the Guardians of New Zealand Superannuation, during today’s regular scheduled appearance before the Commerce Select Committee.

Gavin Walker, the Chairman of the Guardians of New Zealand Superannuation, the Crown entity that manages the New Zealand Superannuation Fund, today told the Commerce Select Committee that the Fund was continuing to perform well.

Mr Walker said that as at 20 February the Fund stood at $28.8 billion, and had gained $4.4 billion (pre NZ tax) over the past 12 months, a gain that includes the precautionary write-down of the US$150 million Oak Finance loan.

“The Fund’s 17.47% return over the last twelve months is exceptional,” said Mr Walker.

Noting that returns over the last few years had been very strong, 18.72% p.a. over the three years to 20 February 2015, Mr Walker said the Guardians remained confident that the Fund would continue to exceed its performance benchmarks.

“However, it’s important to note that future returns are likely to be more modest,” said Mr Walker. “Over the long term the Fund is expected to generate average returns of 8% – 9% a year, based on current portfolio settings.”

Mr Walker commended to the Committee a statutory independent review of the Guardians and Fund by Promontory Financial Group, which was completed during 2014. Promontory’s overall assessment is that “the Guardians run a very professional operation. The Board is strong and the quality of professional staff is impressive, especially for a small market such as New Zealand. The Guardians’ approach to investing the Fund is intellectually sophisticated, consistent and disciplined.”

The report noted that “the Guardians were among a minority of fund managers globally who had been successful in adding substantial value above their benchmarks over a sustained period of time.”

Promontory also confirmed that “the Guardians has implemented appropriate investment systems and controls to manage risk and reduce costs.”

Chief Executive Adrian Orr addressed a range of operational issues.

In regards to Oak Finance, he said: “We are energetically pursuing all appropriate steps to recover the money that we strongly believe is legally owed to the Fund.”

Mr Orr noted that while the sum of money involved is substantial, the Fund was well-diversified and the impact on total Fund performance was minor.

“The strategy of which this investment is part has contributed $900 million to the Fund since it commenced in mid-2009, even after our conservative, precautionary, Oak Finance write-down.”

ENDS

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Seven arrested in drugs operation

By Selwyn Manning -

February 26, 2015

Headline: Seven arrested in drugs operation

Thursday, 26 February 2015 – 3:57pm

Seven people have been arrested during the termination of a drugs operation in Taupo and Tokoroa.

Operation Duet began approximately two months ago and culminated this week in a series of search warrants.

Five searches were carried out at properties in Taupo yesterday (Wednesday, 25 February). A small amount of cash, stolen property, drugs and ammunition was located. Three local men aged 28, 29 and 40 have appeared in court on a number of charges of supplying methamphetamine and have been remanded in custody.

A further five searches were carried out today in Tokoroa where more cash, drugs and ammunition were located. One man aged 44 will appear in court tomorrow charged with offering to supply methamphetamine and supply of cannabis. Two women aged 27 and 28, and one man aged 26 will appear in court next week on drugs charges relating to methamphetamine and synthetic cannabis.

Approximately 20 officers were involved from across the District on each of the two days. Police have not ruled out further arrests.

Detective Senior Sergeant Graham Perks said: “More often than not these operations are made possible by the public providing us with information about illegal activity. This shows that the majority of people do not want their children and families living in communities blighted by the harm that drugs cause. We will continue to look for opportunities to minimise that harm and to play our role in nurturing safer families and safer communities.”

If you have information about any drug activity you should contact your local police. Information can also be provided anonymously to the organisation Crimestoppers on 0800 555111.

Media enquiries should be referred to Communications Manager Kim Perks on 027 234 8256.

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iPredict Update: Kiwi Dollar To Reach Parity With Aussie Dollar In 2015

By Selwyn Manning -

February 26, 2015

MIL OSI –

IPREDICT LTD

NEW ZEALAND WEEKLY ECONOMIC & POLITICAL UPDATE

Thursday 26 February 2015

www.ipredict.co.nz

KIWI DOLLAR TO REACH PARITY WITH AUSSIE DOLLAR IN 2015

The New Zealand dollar will reach parity with the Australian dollar in 2015 and there is just over a 50% probability it will do so by the end of June, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. It is again more likely than not there will be a cut in the New Zealand Official Cash Rate in 2015. Greece is now more strongly expected to stay in the Euro through 2015. The next Australian Federal Election is 50:50, but is expected to be between Labor’s Bill Shorten and the Liberals’ Malcolm Turnbull. Winston Peters is not expected to stand in the Northland by-election, which is strongly expected to be won by National. Kevin Hague is overwhelmingly picked to be the next male co-leader of the New Zealand Greens.

Northland By-election:

· Winston Peters is not expected to be the NZ First candidate for the Northland by-election (only a 40% probability he will be, up from 33% last week)

· Labour candidate expected to win more than 25.89% of the vote in the Northland by-election (60% probability Labour will beat this score, down from 87% last week)

· Coin toss over whether National candidate will win more than 50% of the vote in the Northland by-election (50% probability National candidate will beat this score, down from 70% last week)

· Only 5% probability a candidate from other National or Labour will win Northland by-election (down from 5% last week)

New Zealand Politics:

· Kevin Hague overwhelmingly favoured to be next Green Party co-leader (95% probability)

· John Key is expected to remain National leader until at least the end of 2016 (80% probability, up from 79% last week) and has a 49% probability of remaining National leader until at least the end of 2017 (steady compared with last week)

· Steven Joyce remains favourite to become National Party leader if a vacancy arises (29%, up from 27% last week), followed by Paula Bennett (26%, up from 24%) and Amy Adams (12%, up from 11%)

· Stocks on Andrew Little’s longevity as leader of the Labour Party will be launched in the near future

· Judith Collins expected to be appointed to Cabinet before next election (60% probability, down from 62% last week)

· Next election expected in 2017 (92% probability, steady compared with last week)

· Forecast party vote shares at next election:

o National 45.2% (steady compared with last week)

o Labour 32.1% (up from 32.0%)

o Greens 11.1% (steady)

o NZ First 6.9% (steady)

o Others 4.7% (down from 4.8%)

· National expected to win 2017 General Election (55% probability, down from 57% last week)

· Wellington councils not expected to be amalgamated by end of 2015 (only 43% probability they will be)

New Zealand Economics:

· New Zealand dollar expected to reach parity with Australian dollar by the end of 2015 (75% probability) and may reach parity by end of June 2015 (53% probability)

· Quarterly GDP growth expected to be:

o 0.7% in the March quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 1.1% in the June quarter (steady)

o 1.1% in the September quarter (steady)

o 1.1% in the December quarter (steady)

· Annual growth expected to be 4.0% in the 2015 calendar year (steady compared with last week)

· Unemployment expected to be:

o 5.4% in the March quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 5.3% in the June quarter (steady)

o 5.2% in the September quarter (steady)

o 5.3% in the December quarter (steady)

· Current account deficit expected to be 3.5% of GDP in the December quarter (steady compared with last week) and 3.4% in the March quarter (steady)

· Annual inflation expected to be:

o 0.3% to end of March 2015 quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 0.6% to end of June 2015 quarter (steady)

o 0.8% to end of September 2015 quarter (steady)

o 1.0% to end of December 2015 quarter (steady)

· Official Cash Rate priced to be:

o 3.495% on 12 March (up from 3.491%)

o 3.488% on 30 April (up from 3.486%)

o 3.450% on 11 June (down from 3.451%)

o 3.424% on 23 July (up from 3.421%)

o 3.386% on 10 September (down from 3.395%)

o 3.367% on 29 October (down from 3.376%)

o 3.372% on 10 December 2015 (down from 3.380%)

o This implies the OCR is more likely than not to be cut on 29 October (compared with it being more likely than not to remain at 3.50% throughout the calendar year last week)

o OCR stocks out to June 2016 will be launched in the near future

· Only 17% probability of a fiscal surplus in 2014/15 (down from 18% last week)

· Fiscal balance expected to be:

o -0.17% of GDP in 2014/15 (steady compared with last week)

o 0.85% of GDP in 2015/16 (up from 0.75%)

o 1.98% of GDP in 2016/17 (steady)

o 2.38% of GDP in 2017/18 (steady)

· There is only a 55% probability Fonterra’s payout in 2015/16 will be above $6.00 (before retentions)

Foreign Affairs/Constitution:

· Next UK Parliament expected to consist of:

o Conservatives 37.9% of seats in the House of Commons (steady compared with last week)

o Labour 37.1% of seats (steady)

o Nationalist parties 6.6% of seats (steady)

o UKIP and similar 5.7% of seats (steady)

o Liberal Democrats 4.9% of seats (steady)

o Unionist parties 2.1% of seats (steady

o Green and similar 1.9% of seats (steady)

o Independents and Speaker 1.9% of seats (steady)

o All others 2.0% of seats (steady)

· David Cameron expected to be prime minister after next UK election (57% probability, up from 55% last week)

· Boris Johnson expected to be elected to UK House of Commons this year (92% probability, down from 95% last week)

· Socialist Workers’ Party expected to defeat People’s Party in next Spanish election (60% probability, steady compared with last week)

· All Eurozone countries, including Greece, expected to remain in Euro in 2015 (only 13% probability of an announcement of a departure this year, down from 29% last week)

· Tony Abbott is expected to remain leader of the Australian Liberal Party until 1 July 2015 (only 23% probability of departing before then, up from 20% last week) but be replaced by Malcolm Turnbull as leader of the Australian Liberal Party by nomination day (69% probability Turnbull will be leader on that day, up from 60% last week)

· Bill Shorten expected to be Labor leader at next Australian federal election (90% probability)

· Coin toss between Liberals and Labor for next Australian Federal election in 2016 (both on 50%, steady compared with last week)

· Hillary Clinton is favoured to be the Democratic Party’s nominee for US president in 2016 and to be elected to that office (48% probability, up form 46% last week). Jeb Bush has a 39% probability of being the Republican nominee (steady compared with last week) followed by Scott Walker (20% probability, down from 25% last week)

· There is only a 31% probability New Zealand will sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership this year (up from 25% last week), and the Trans-Pacific Partnership is not expected to be ratified by the US Congress before 1 July 2017 (only 31% probability it will be, steady compared with last week)

· Helen Clark’s prospects of being the next UN Secretary General are 25% (down from 27% last week)

· There is a 13% probability New Zealand will become a republic by 2020 (down from 15% last week)

Notes:

· iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz.

· The weekly economic and political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each week. This week’s was taken at 10.46 am today.

pdf icon 150226-1046-Economic-and-Political-Update-FINAL.pdf

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Export values fall despite higher meat and dairy quantities

By Selwyn Manning -

February 26, 2015

MIL OSI –

Source: Statistics New Zealand – Press Release/Statement:

Headline: Export values fall despite higher meat and dairy quantities

Total goods exports were down $371 million (9.1 percent) to $3.7 billion in January 2015 compared with January 2014, Statistics New Zealand said today.

Milk powder, butter, and cheese exports drove the fall, down 30 percent, led by lower prices. The quantity of dairy products exported rose 2.9 percent, led by cheese and butter, however the quantity of milk powder exported fell 3.1 percent.

“Lower milk powder prices in the last five months, compared with the same months a year earlier, are the main reason exports have been falling,” international statistics manager Jason Attewell said. “Although export values fell, we saw record quantities of dairy and meat exports for a January month.”

A 20 percent rise in meat exports partly offset the fall in monthly exports, led by frozen beef, up 53 percent.

Imports fell $142 million (3.8 percent), to $3.6 billion. The fall was led by intermediate goods (such as crude oil and automotive diesel), down 9.8 percent. The monthly trade balance for January was a surplus of $56 million (1.5 percent of exports).

Seasonally adjusted exports rose 2.7 percent in January 2015, led by increases in fruit and wine exports, compared with December 2014. Seasonally adjusted imports fell 8.5 percent.

Ends

For media enquiries contact: Jason Attewell, Wellington 04 931 4600, info@stats.govt.nz

Authorised by Liz MacPherson, Government Statistician, 26 February 2015

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Australia drives record visitor arrivals

By Selwyn Manning -

February 26, 2015

Headline: Australia drives record visitor arrivals

Visitor arrivals to New Zealand were up 3 percent in January 2015 (302,400), compared with January 2014, Statistics New Zealand said today.

“Arrivals from Australia drove the increase in visitor numbers, with more holidaymakers, people visiting friends and relatives, and business travellers,” population statistics manager Vina Cullum said. “In comparison, the number of visitors arriving from China fell relative to January last year because of a change in timing of the Chinese New Year.”

Australia, our biggest source of visitors, also contributed the biggest annual increase in visitors, up 31,100 to 1.26 million in the January 2015 year. China, the United States, and the United Kingdom were our next biggest sources of visitors in the January 2015 year.

New Zealand-resident travellers departed on 133,800 overseas trips in January 2015, up 5 percent from January 2014. The biggest increases were in departures to the United States (up 1,700) and Fiji (up 1,400). The annual increase was 4 percent, with New Zealand residents taking 2.28 million overseas trips in the January 2015 year, mostly to Australia (1.09 million trips).

Net inflow of migrants increases to a new peak in January

New Zealand had a seasonally adjusted net gain (more arrivals than departures) of 5,500 migrants in January 2015. This was a new all-time high, surpassing the October 2014 peak of 5,200. This was the third time in the last six months that the previous record net gain of migrants (4,700 in February 2003) has been surpassed.

The annual net gain of migrants in the January 2015 year (53,800) was up significantly on the January 2014 year (25,700). This was the sixth month in a row that the annual record for a net gain of migrants has been broken. The new annual record was driven by both more arrivals (with a new high of 111,500) and fewer departures.

New Zealand’s biggest net gain of migrants in the January 2015 year was from India (10,800). Most of the 12,000 migrants arriving from India came on student visas (9,100). The other biggest net gains in migrants were from China (7,600), the United Kingdom (5,100), and the Philippines (3,800).

Ends

For media enquiries contact: Nicholas Thomson, Christchurch 03 964 8700, info@stats.govt.nz

Authorised by Liz MacPherson, Government Statistician, 26 February 2015

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Global response to atrocities by states and armed groups ‘shameful and ineffective’

By Selwyn Manning -

February 26, 2015

Headline: Global response to atrocities by states and armed groups ‘shameful and ineffective’

Amnesty International has released its 2014/15 Annual Report on The State of the World’s Human Rights detailing a catastrophic year for millions caught up in violence.

The human rights organisation has found that governments’ response to conflict and abuses by states and armed groups has been shameful and ineffective.

While people suffered an escalation in barbarous attacks and repression, the international community failed to find workable solutions to the most pressing human needs of our time.

This is a trend set to continue in 2015 unless world leaders act urgently to confront the changing nature of conflict, and address the enormous refugee crisis caused by the mass violence the world saw in 2014.

Amnesty International’s Annual Report provides a comprehensive overview of human rights in 160 countries during 2014 and makes calls for global action including:

the renouncement of veto rights by five permanent members of the UN Security Council in situations of mass atrocities
for all states to ratify and adhere to the Arms Trade Treaty
to restrict the use of explosive weapons
for all countries to ensure their response to security threats do not undermine fundamental rights or fuel further violence
governments take action to protect and assist those fleeing conflict and persecution, and resettle the most vulnerable refugees

New Zealand starts 2015 in its two year seat on the UN Security Council with strong calls for reform of the Council and support for addressing the root causes of conflict.

Amnesty International welcomes Foreign Minister Murray McCully’s strong words at his first appearance at the Security Council but is encouraging the Government to ensure they don’t simply pay lip service to the importance of protecting civilians but put their words into action.

2015/16 forecast

Unless the world’s leaders act immediately to confront the changing nature of conflict and address other shortcomings identified in the report, the human rights outlook for the coming year is bleak:

More civilian populations forced to live under the quasi-state control of brutal armed groups, subject to attacks, persecution, and discrimination.
Deepening threats to freedom of expression and other rights, including violations caused by new draconian anti-terror laws and unjustified mass surveillance.
A worsening humanitarian and refugee crisis with even more people displaced by conflict as governments continue to block borders and the international community fails to provide assistance and protection.

Of particular concern is the rising power of non-state armed groups, including the group which calls itself Islamic State (IS).

Armed groups committed abuses in at least 35 countries in 2014, more than 1 in 5 of the countries that Amnesty International investigated.

“Governments must stop pretending the protection of civilians is beyond their power, leaders must embrace a fundamental change in the way they respond to crises and do their utmost to protect human rights around the world,” said Grant Bayldon, Amnesty International’s Executive Director in New Zealand.

UN Security Council veto

In Syria, Iraq, Gaza, Israel and Ukraine, the UN Security Council (UNSC) has failed to deal with crises and conflict, even in situations where horrific crimes are being committed against civilians by states or by armed groups, based on vested interests or political expediency.

The use of vetoes by permanent UNSC members in 2014 against a resolution to refer the situation in Syria to the International Criminal Court has effectively enabled a situation which has resulted in the deaths of more than 190,000 civilians, millions of refugees and other gross human rights violations.

Amnesty International is now calling for the five permanent UNSC members to renounce their veto rights in situations of genocide and other mass atrocities.

“This could be a game changer for the international community and the tools it has at its disposal to help protect civilian lives. By renouncing their veto rights the five permanent members of the Security Council would give the UN more scope to take action to protect civilians when lives are at grave risk and send a powerful signal to perpetrators that the world will not sit idly by while mass atrocities take place,” said Grant Bayldon.

Arms trade

The bloody legacy of the flooding of weapons into countries where they are used for grave abuses by states and armed groups claimed tens of thousands of civilian lives in 2014.

Amnesty International is calling for all states—including the US, China, Canada, India, Israel and Russia – to ratify or accede, and adhere, to the Arms Trade Treaty which came into force last year after decades of campaigning by Amnesty International and others.

“Huge arms shipments were delivered to Iraq, Israel, South Sudan and Syria in 2014 despite the very high likelihood that these weapons would be used against civilian populations trapped in conflict. When IS took control of large parts of Iraq, it found large arsenals, ripe for the picking. The irresponsible flow of weapons to human rights abusers must stop now,” said Grant Bayldon.

Draconian responses

Amnesty International is urging governments to ensure their response to security threats do not undermine fundamental human rights or fuel further violence.

The Annual Report details how many governments in 2014 reacted to security threats with draconian and repressive tactics.

“Around the world government leaders have attempted to justify human rights violations by talking of the need to keep the world ‘safe’,” said Grant Bayldon.

“We are seeing worrying signs that leaders will continue to introduce draconian anti-terror laws and use unjustified mass surveillance techniques in response to security threats. But knee-jerk reactions do not work. Instead they create an environment of repression in which extremism can thrive.”

Refugees

A tragic consequence of the international community’s inability to protect civilians caught in conflict has helped create one of the worst refugee crisis the world has ever seen, as millions of people – including 4 million from Syria alone – continue to flee violence and persecution.

“The global refugee crisis is only likely to get worse, unless urgent measures are taken,” said Grant Bayldon.

“New Zealand, along with other world leaders, has the means and a responsibility to do their bit to alleviate the suffering of millions – by committing further political and financial resources to assist and protect those fleeing danger, delivering humanitarian aid generously, and resettling the most vulnerable.

New Zealand must step up and show leadership in the face of this growing refugee crisis, increase its refugee intake and do more to protect the people fleeing violence in places like Syria.”

New Zealand’s response to the refugee crisis

“To date New Zealand’s response has been inadequate,” said Grant Bayldon.

“While countries like Jordan and Lebanon have opened up their doors and are providing
support to millions fleeing violence in Syria, the New Zealand government’s intake pledge stands at just 100 Syrian refugees. This number is from within, and not in addition to, our current humanitarian quota of just 750 places.”

The way forward

“The global outlook on the state of human rights is bleak, but there are solutions. World leaders must take immediate and decisive action to avert an impending global crisis and take us one step closer to a safer world in which rights and freedoms are prote cted,” said Grant Bayldon.

“Never has there been a more vital time for New Zealand to step up and continue to show human rights leadership on international stage. In its role on the UN Security Council New Zealand is in a prime position to have an impact when it comes to addressing the global state of human rights.”

New Zealand’s entry in the Annual Report

Meanwhile in its own backyard New Zealand still has much work to do on some fundamental issues.

In 2014 New Zealand rejected international recommendations to address inequality, and to rule out the transferal of asylum seekers to detention centres in third countries.

The right to privacy and freedom of movement was threatened with the passing of the Countering Terrorist Fighters Legislation (Foreign Fighters) in October, without adequate time to conduct a robust assessment of compliance with international human rights standards.

Disparities remained in the quality of services provided to refugees who arrived under the humanitarian intake of UNHCR, the UN refugee agency, and those arriving in the country spontaneously and whose refugee claims were accepted by the government.

Economic, social and cultural rights lacked equal protection to civil and political rights while levels of child poverty remained high.

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Whangarei homicide investigation continues

By Selwyn Manning -

February 26, 2015

MIL OSI –

Source: New Zealand Police – Press Release/Statement:

Headline: Whangarei homicide investigation continues

Home » News » Whangarei homicide investigation continues

Northland

Police are continuing their inquiries following the discovery of the bodies of a man and woman at a Riverside house in Whangarei early this morning.

The 32-year-old woman and 52-year-old man were found about 12.30am at a Dundas Road address.

Police are not looking for anyone else in connection with the deaths, but are speaking to a number of witnesses.
The deceased were known to each other.

Police would like to hear from anyone who may have heard or seen anything in the Dundas Road area between 11pm and 12.30am last night
Anyone with information can call the Whangarei Police on 09 430 4500 or if they want to remain anonymous they can call Crimestoppers on 0800 555 111.

A scene examination with be undertaken with the assistance of specialists today.
A post mortem will be carried out on the deceased in Auckland tomorrow.

For media inquiries contact Northland Police Communications Manager Sarah Kennett on 09 945 4650 or 021 192 1099.

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Five AA Australia: Manning & Godfrey on Christchurch Quake + Cricket World Cup Australia V New Zealand

By Selwyn Manning -

February 26, 2015

[caption id="attachment_1642" align="alignleft" width="300"] Peter Godfrey and Selwyn Manning.[/caption] Recorded on 26/02/15: On Across The Ditch this week Selwyn Manning and Peter Godfrey discuss the fourth anniversary since the Christchurch earthquake. Also discussed, the looming game of Cricket between Australia and New Zealand. ITEM ONE: This week New Zealand remembered the 2011 Christchurch earthquake and the impact it had on the Canterbury region and the country. Last night TVNZ broadcast a graphic documentary of footage taken at the time of the 6.3 magnitude quake and during the ensuring hours. It was a reminder of the utter devastation that befell Christchurch, of the disaster that caused the deaths of 185 people and injured several thousand others. In some ways it seems much longer than just four years since the quake. Each year, since it struck, people quietly commemorate those who showed courage, those who brought comfort to others trapped under concrete, iron girders, and rubble, and to people who brought hope and rescue to those who survived. The quake struck on Tuesday February 22 2011 at 12.51 p.m. It couldn’t have struck at a worse time. It was lunchtime, thousands of people were on the move, in the streets. New Zealand History website records is as follows: “More than 110 fatalities were caused by the collapse of two multi-storey office buildings – the Canterbury Television and Pyne Gould Corporation buildings. Falling bricks and masonry on Manchester St and in Cashel Mall killed 11 people, and six died in two city buses crushed by crumbling walls. Rock cliffs behind houses collapsed in the Sumner and Redcliffs area, and boulders tumbled down the Port Hills, with five people killed by falling rocks.” The Canterbury region is slowly rebuilding, returning to a normality that people once took for granted. But Cantabrians speak of how people remain affected. Some remain traumatised. One young teenager still cannot sleep without the lights on. People tend to avoid the CBD which is now mostly flattened, where central city buildings once stood, and much of the land to the east of the city is damaged, unable to be built on. Life goes on, but the heart of Christchurch City barely has a pulse. It is recovering, but it has a long long way to go. ITEM TWO: The Cricket World Cup matches may not get any better than this… Australia V New Zealand… The two in-form teams square off tomorrow (Saturday) at Eden Park here in Auckland at 2pm NZ Time… And the pre-match sledging has begun! This week Aussie’s opener David Warner was told Eden Park will be a pressure cooker atmosphere… He said: ”Perfect. I hope they come out and boo us and give us crap like they always do… That’s what’s going to happen. We love it, it gets us up and going, gets the adrenaline going for sure.” Warner says he will let his bat do the talking. The Black Caps coach Mike Hesson said, when on the field, the Kiwis will focus on doing the business. About sledging, he said his team would “soak it up as best we can”. One things for sure, it’s going to be a cracker! Across The Ditch broadcasts live on Five AA Australia and webcasts on LiveNews.co.nz and ForeignAffairs.co.nz. –]]>

Christchurch earthquakes demonstrates people were caught by surprise

By Selwyn Manning -

February 26, 2015

MIL OSI –

Christchurch earthquakes demonstrates people were caught by surprise

February 26, 2015

Christchurch earthquakes demonstrate that people generally do not take any notice of the likely occurrence of rare events, University of Canterbury natural hazards researcher Professor Tim Davies says.

The February 2011 earthquake was a one in a many thousands of years’ event and there were many more important things to worry about prior to the September 4 2010 earthquake, he says.

Professor Davies is attending and speaking at the United Nations world conference on disaster risk reduction in Sendai, Japan, from March 14 to 18.

The conference hopes to produce countermeasures to climate-related disasters, which are worsening in some parts of the world. Japanese organisers will draw on its experiences of the March 2011 quake and tsunami and help stress the importance of preparation.

“Before the Christchurch earthquakes, large in our minds was an Alpine fault earthquake. We started preparing for that potential event in the 1990s and 2000s, because it had a much greater probability of occurring than anything else we knew about. The lesson here is that probabilities do not tell us everything future about disaster events – especially the ones we don’t have much information about.

“The most important disaster for any community is the next one, and probabilities can tell us nothing about that. We cannot know far in advance its type, its intensity or its time of occurrence. What any community needs to know is what the next disaster can do, and prepare by altering its behaviour so that when any disaster happens, the effects will be reduced.

“A community could, for example, anticipate that any disaster can cut off its food supply, and maintain emergency stocks; it can arrange that all the major professionals such as doctors, police and fire crew do not work in the same building, so that all don’t get wiped out by the same event.

“It can purchase and maintain satellite phones, anticipating that a range of events can knock out mobile and landline communication. None of these requires that the nature and probability of the next disaster are known.

“It is legitimate to use methods to devise risk-based strategies for dealing with the cumulative effects of large numbers of disasters, because the statistics will in that case be close to what actually occurs. However, such large scale strategies cannot be effective at reducing local disasters, because these are all different. If local disasters aren’t reduced, no large-scale disaster reduction strategy can be effective.

“Communities need to develop, in collaboration with scientists and officials, their own views on what the next disaster can do to them, and how they can become less vulnerable to it. The community itself knows how it functions; scientists can tell them how nature behaves; and officials can if necessary alter rules to allow resilience to be improved.

“There is much we do not know about natural hazards, and disasters will always be to some extent unexpected. Therefore risk management methodologies will always need to be supplemented with resilience methodologies if we are ever going to be able to reduce the impacts of future disasters – bearing in mind that rapid increases in population, development and commerce render society ever more vulnerable to nature’s challenges,” Professor Davies says.

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