Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Judith Brett, Emeritus Professor of Politics, La Trobe University

Josh Frydenberg says they are fake independents, John Howard called them anti-Liberal groupies, Scott Morrison points out they are only standing in Liberal seats, and that a vote for them is in fact a vote for Labor.

Well, they would say this, wouldn’t they, as the Liberal heartland fractures, risking not only the return of the government but the careers of its more promising golden sons.

It is now clear Frydenberg is fighting for his future in Kooyong, against paediatric neurologist Monique Ryan. If he loses, he won’t be the next federal Liberal leader.

There are 15 teal candidates standing against incumbents in the lower house, but the ones to watch are in the once blue ribbon Liberal seats of the comfortable middle and upper middle class: Kooyong and Goldstein in Victoria, Wentworth, North Sydney and Bradfield in New South Wales, and Curtin in Western Australia.

The challengers are all well-educated, well-connected professional women, from a range of occupations – medicine, journalism, business, finance. Tellingly, none has been a political staffer. They would bring real life experience into the parliament, and they are backed by strong community campaigns.

The strength of support for these candidates in once blue ribbon Liberal seats reveals a fracturing of the Liberal Party’s traditional support among the upper middle class. Two of the women, Allegra Spender and Kate Chaney, are from families with deep connections to the Liberal Party. Both have the name recognition an independent needs to win.

These candidates have taken the “Voices of …” identity from Cathy McGowan’s successful 2013 campaign against Sophie Mirabella in the Victorian seat of Indi. McGowan has also been an important source of advice on how to organise a community-based campaign.

But these candidates are crucially different from McGowan, who was elected to make a noise about local issues in a rural electorate, such as an unreliable mobile phone network.

The teal candidates in these once safe Liberal seats are not campaigning for better local facilities. They are arguing instead for different national policies – on climate change, a federal integrity commission and the treatment of women, with climate change the most important. These are all matters of national policy on which the federal government has failed to lead. In terms of the history of the Liberal Party, these candidates represent a significant class defection.

Read more:
Why teal independents are seeking Liberal voters and spooking Liberal MPs

In the early 20th century, when it became clear Labor aspired to be a party of government, the established middle-class parties fought off the challenge with two core arguments: poorly educated working men and trade unionists did not have the skills or experience to provide competent government; and the party of the trade unions and the working class would be a sectional party that would govern on behalf of its supporters and not of the nation as a whole.

As Labor’s electoral support grew, these two claims buoyed the political self-confidence of the social formation I call “the moral middle class”. They were the people with the education and worldly experience to manage the nation’s affairs. They had the character, integrity and perspective to put the national interest before their own.

We hear weak echoes of these arguments in Morrison’s repeated refrain that only the Coalition can be trusted with the national government’s core responsibilities of economic management and national security. But that is all they are now, the weakest of echoes that Morrison barely understands.

Read more:
Final 2019 election results: education divide explains the Coalition’s upset victory

The plausibility of the Liberals’ claims to superior competence has been undermined both by its policy failures in government since 2013 and the poor calibre and performance of many of its ministers. The team Morrison is taking to this election cannot claim to be more competent than Labor’s. It is the B team of a tired government, with some spectacularly poor performers, such as the bumbling Richard Colbeck.

Likewise, the plausibility of the Liberals’ historic claim to a commitment to national rather than sectional interests has been undermined by the government’s failure to take climate change seriously and its capture by the fossil fuel lobby, the soft corruption of its electoral bribery, its refusal of an effective federal integrity commission, and its electoral strategy of largely ignoring the interests of those unlikely to vote Liberal in favour of men in hard hats.

Morrison thinks more like a campaign director than a prime minister, so if your vote is already locked in you are of little interest, no matter what contribution your work might be making to the nation.

Since John Howard, the Liberal Party has increased its support among less well-educated, suburban and regional manual workers, and argued Labor is the party of the inner-city elites. The culture wars morphing into the climate wars were crucial in this shift, as were election campaigns focused on the hip pockets of aspirational voters.

The relationship between tertiary education and voting has shifted, with higher levels of education increasingly correlating with voting for Labor or the Greens. The cost is the increasing alienation of the well-educated elites who once gave the Liberals their support.

Judith Brett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How the Liberals lost the ‘moral middle class’ – and now the teal independents may well cash in – https://theconversation.com/how-the-liberals-lost-the-moral-middle-class-and-now-the-teal-independents-may-well-cash-in-182293

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Phillips, Antarctic Scientist, Monash University

It’s hard to survive in bitterly cold Antarctica. But the ice continent is home to more than 1,100 species who have adapted to life on land and in its lakes.

Penguins are the most well known, but Antarctica’s diversity lies in its microbes and species like mosses, lichens and tardigrades (water bears). Most of these survive in the few ice-free areas on the continent.

Our new research provides a comprehensive inventory of Antarctic species. We believe it will help the 54 nations who are party to the Antarctic Treaty fulfil one of its major conservation goals – the continent-wide protection of Antarctic species.

Despite their toughness, climate change, introduced species and human activities pose growing threats for these species. We need rapid and widespread protection for Antarctica’s biodiversity if these species are to survive.

How can so many species live in Antarctica?

Our inventory found 1,142 land and lake-dwelling species currently known to live on the Antarctic continent. This list is dominated by extraordinarily resilient groups, such as lichens, mosses and invertebrates, which have evolved to thrive under extreme conditions.

These species have developed unique adaptations to live in this frozen desert, where sub-zero temperatures are the norm and life sustaining water is often locked up as ice.

Read more:
Invasive species are threatening Antarctica’s fragile ecosystems as human activity grows and the world warms

Antarctic mosses have the incredible ability to freeze and almost completely dry out. They come back to life during the brief periods when it’s warm enough for ice to melt, and take advantage of liquid water to rehydrate and grow.

Tardigrades are, famously, masters of survival. During tough times, they can enter a frozen, inactive state very close to death. Some have remained frozen for over 30 years before recovering and resuming their normal lives as if nothing happened.

And then, of course, there are the penguins. Five of the world’s 18 species live in Antarctica, with another four species on sub-Antarctic islands. These birds are built for the cold with thick layers of insulating fat and feathers to keep warm.

Isn’t Antarctica already protected?

It’s a common belief that Antarctica is already highly protected. But, in practice, this is only true for specific areas.

In 1991, the nations party to the Antarctic Treaty agreed to conserve the unique continent through the Madrid Protocol. This agreement set the foundations for a network of 75 protected areas – those with outstanding environmental, scientific, historic, aesthetic and wilderness value.

This approach aided conservation, by restricting entry and limiting what people can do, safeguarding biodiversity from issues such as wildlife disturbance, pollution, and introduction of invasive species.

But there are still large gaps, leaving many species unprotected.

One solution is already outlined in the Madrid Protocol: protect the “type localities” of each species. This refers to the location where the very first specimen of a species was collected and described. These specimens are crucial for taxonomy, as they act as the point of reference to check against unknown or ambiguous specimens.

Importantly, protecting the type locality of a species ensures any species can be protected, even if we know little about their habitat or distribution. This is especially important for Antarctic species, because for many, the type locality is the only known location for that species.

To date, however, no Antarctic protected areas have been created specifically to conserve type localities. That’s where our research can help.

What needs to be done?

The reason there are no protected areas of this kind is because we haven’t had a comprehensive list of Antarctic species and their type localities. That’s why we undertook this research.

Once we had the list, we mapped the type localities across the continent to see how many of these sites are currently protected.

We found more than a quarter (28%) of all species already have their type localities protected for other reasons, such as scientific interest or wildlife colonies. That’s because they occur in the few and small ice free areas across the continent, where most of the existing protected areas have been created. The remaining 72% of the continent’s type localities are not protected in this way.

Read more:
Record-smashing heatwaves are hitting Antarctica and the Arctic simultaneously. Here’s what’s driving them, and how they’ll impact wildlife

There is now a great opportunity to protect these localities. If we focus first on areas with multiple type localities, we could get many more species protected.

Over time, we could expand this network. We estimate another 105 new protected areas would cover all remaining type localities.

We would also need to update the plans for existing protected areas to ensure the value of type localities are taken into account.

Longer term, we will need to embrace a systematic conservation framework across Antarctica to ensure the world’s last great wilderness remains full of life.

Laura Phillips is affiliated with Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia

Rachel Leihy works for the Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research and is affiliated with Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.

This research was done as a part of the Australian Research Council funded program Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future, and it was also funded by an Australian Antarctic Program grant.

– ref. Toughness has limits: over 1,100 species live in Antarctica – but they’re at risk from human activity – https://theconversation.com/toughness-has-limits-over-1-100-species-live-in-antarctica-but-theyre-at-risk-from-human-activity-181258

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa French, Professor & Dean, School of Media and Communication, RMIT University

Review: Gillian Wearing Editing Life, and Cindy Sherman Untitled Film Still #58, PHOTO 2022.

As we struggle to recover from the pandemic, “Being Human” – the theme of this year’s PHOTO 2022 international biennale in Melbourne – could not be more apt.

It is a recognition that interacting with other humans is the most cherished part of being alive, and one which we enthusiastically embrace.

This biennale has a wealth of outdoor experiences as well as indoor ones. Walks around Melbourne create surprise encounters in the city (or curated walks and cycle tours are available).

There are five stands: society, nature, history, mortality and self. The latter two are keenly addressed in works by Gillian Wearing at ACMI and Cindy Sherman outside the NGV Australia.

Through their close proximity, the PHOTO 2022 curators have effectively encouraged a conversation between artists.

Both adopt impressive scale. Sherman’s work is larger than most billboards at 20 metres high. Wearing’s giant floor-to-ceiling self-portraits wrap around the gallery.

Both artists use their own bodies and faces to communicate ideas beyond the self; they connect to human experience of the world, mortality and gender.

Read more:
On the intimate and character-revealing photographs of Linda McCartney – Paul’s wife, and a stunning artist

The masks of Gillian Wearing

British conceptual artist Gillian Wearing is on display at ACMI in a survey of four works.

In Rock ‘n’ Roll 70 Wallpaper, she asked collaborators to visualise how she might look when she is 70, creating 15 different imaginary photographic portraits.

Using age rendering tools created by artificial intelligence, her possible future selves are depicted.

The images’ size, as a collage of portraits extending floor to ceiling, create a dramatic experience while also illuminating the psychological dimension of the portraits.

On walking into the gallery, you are surrounded by the many kinds of expressions and gazes of a variously aged Wearing: vulnerable, defensive, benign.

The work asks us to question how we feel about and react to ageing. How we might respond to not knowing whether an image is a truthful depiction. And, emotionally, how we contemplate the unknown factor of what time will impose upon the human form.

A second work is a deep fake video made with collaborators Wieden+Kennedy, a global advertising agency best known for working with Nike.

In the video, a digital mask of Wearing’s face is disconcertingly mapped onto the faces of others, making them eerily familiar and yet unknown. The participants were strangers responding to an advertisement to be in the film. On watching this, I am struck by the question: what is the true self? Are you obedient to social norms, a fraud, an authentic or frustrated character?

A person is more than a name, or an image. We embody and reflect experiences. Can we be who we say we are, or the persona we offer to the world?

The work creates the impression we are all one, an idea undercut by knowing that these are all constructed portraits.

There are two self-portraits, one of Wearing at age 17, and another titled Self-Portrait of Me Now in A Mask. Together, they expand Wearing’s reflection on ageing. The latter explicitly picks up on Wearing’s extensive interest in masking, self-production and personas.

As the video work in the exhibition offers:

We all wear masks. We’re all actors. When you leave your front door in the morning, you’re putting on a performance for the world.

Cindy Sherman and women photographers

Sherman’s work conveys a similar sentiment.

All representation – even of real things – is selected and presented by someone. When we are photographed, we offer an idea of ourselves to the photographer, we perform ourselves. The photographer selects the frame, the tone, the style and which image is presented.

From this point of view, an image is never neutral.

The American artist Cindy Sherman has portrayed herself in her photographs as film stars, unhappy housewives, socialites and other iconic female roles — conveying commentary on gender and celebrity.

The image outside the NGV Australia on Flinders Street, Untitled Film Still #58, is one from a series of 69 self-portraits Sherman produced from 1977-80. All in black and white, they recall scenes from movies. In most of those images, a single female figure appears as if caught spontaneously.

The monumental presence in Flinders Street is spectacular. The woman looks at something beyond the frame – as many in this series do – and the averted gaze invites the viewer to contemplate both the woman and what is just out of frame.

Read more:
Here’s looking at: Cindy Sherman ‘Head Shots’

Perhaps she is aware of being looked at or objectified, concerned with being on the street and wary of the urban environment.

Wearing edits life while Sherman imitates it, but in all of these works, the images are not about the photographers themselves as people. They draw on their experience, but are about issues such as what women face in their lives, bodies and culture, and about how visual representations construct meaning.

Gillian Wearing: Editing Life and Cindy Sherman’s Untitled Film Still #58 are on display until 22 May.

Lisa French does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How conceptual artist Gillian Wearing and photographer Cindy Sherman make us confront our performances to the world – https://theconversation.com/how-conceptual-artist-gillian-wearing-and-photographer-cindy-sherman-make-us-confront-our-performances-to-the-world-181245

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rob Manwaring, Associate Professor, Politics and Public Policy, Flinders University

With due caution about the (in)accuracy of opinion polls, Australian voters may bring in a Labor government on May 21. If so, what kind of government would they get?

One obstacle to answering this is that the Australian Labor Party (ALP) has been out of office for so long, having lost three elections since 2013. And it’s difficult to find comparable case studies, as the social-democratic left has generally not performed well in various elections over the past decade or more.

British Labour, for example, has lost four elections since 2010, although it’s showing signs of revival with Keir Starmer at the helm.

And the tide may be turning in the left’s favour. New Zealand Labour formed a coalition government after the 2017 election and then, following an election dominated by COVID-19 in 2020, hit a record high of 50% and won a single-party majority (virtually unheard of under the proportional MMP system).

And in Germany, social democrat Olaf Scholz now leads a coalition as federal chancellor following last year’s election.

Three brands of labour

The three labour parties (British, Australian and New Zealand) have converged around some key values and ideas, indicating how the ALP might govern. There’s always likely to be a gap between rhetoric and actual policy implementation, but examination of leaders’ speeches gives some evidence about where they’re heading.

Our comparative analysis of speeches by the three party leaders indicates a “thin” labourism in relation to the parties’ social-democratic traditions.

ALP leader Anthony Albanese’s key speeches since becoming leader in 2019 show he’s big on economic growth, with an emphasis on social mobility (“aspiration”), fairness and security.

Read more:
Could the 2022 election result in a hung parliament? History shows Australians have nothing to fear from it

Along with talk of jobs and wages – essential themes for any politician wishing to appeal to working people – there’s reference to nation-building and infrastructure. These themes are reflected in the approach being taken by shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers.

Albanese, Starmer and New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern are alike in that their speeches use the words “economy”, “growth” and “jobs” more than any others – although Ardern refers to the environment noticeably more frequently than the other two.

Like Starmer and Ardern, Albanese downplays traditional social-democratic vocabulary like “progressive”, “dignity”, “solidarity” and “equality”. These leaders also lack the enthusiasm of the third-way “soft neoliberals” who governed during an era of deregulation and downsizing and yet claimed they could “modernise” social democracy, as popularised by the UK’s former prime minister Tony Blair.

Safe centrism

Today’s labour leaders do, however, steer a “safe” centrist path between being pro-growth (or at least not anti-business) and seeking gains for low- and middle-income earners.

They normally avoid explicit talk of class, redistribution and trade unions. None of them critiques the market economy – they just want it to be fairer. Once in office, the gains for workers from a labour government will be incremental, not transformational.

Read more:
How much do mainstream media matter in an election campaign? (Spoiler: more than you might think)

One can see this in New Zealand. The pandemic has meant a major detour, but Ardern hasn’t made great progress towards her avowed social goals: getting everyone into an affordable home and reducing child poverty. The gains she can cite are incremental at best.

Under Albanese, the ALP removed some politically troublesome tax policies which had originally been intended to deliver greater fairness. Labor reversed its 2019 policy positions on negative gearing, capital gains tax and franking credits. Further, Albanese announced no lift in the unemployment benefit under Labor, and also signed up to the Coalition’s stage three tax cuts – in effect removing an entire income tax bracket.

In the campaign he presents himself as professional, “reasonable” and a safe pair of hands – but above all, not radical. There have been some “gaffes and stumbles” and then a positive COVID test, but the latest polls will be reassuring.

A thin ideological platform

One impact of the pandemic has been a return of strong governmental action backed by borrowing. At the state level, premiers (notably Labor premiers) have gained credit for taking more decisive (or less indecisive) actions to prevent spread of the disease, reduce pressures on hospitals and save lives.

New Zealand Labour’s exemplary performance in disease control showed how a government can be rewarded electorally for this – although recent opinion polls show Ardern’s government could be beaten by a centre-right coalition next year.

Read more:
If Labor wins the election, he is set to become the next federal treasurer. So who is Jim Chalmers?

Ardern’s commitment to lift the minimum wage, and Starmer’s and Albanese’s focus on job security exemplify the incremental approach that’s focused on workers but doesn’t want to “frighten the horses” of capitalism.

Labour leaders have to work harder than their centre-right opponents to convince voters they’re not anti-business, that they understand macroeconomic policy and that they won’t get too tax-hungry – and yet also appeal to those for whom “economy” might mean how the next paycheck will cover rent and groceries.

Labour parties now find themselves on a thin ideological platform, anxious not to be an easy target for their pro-business opponents, especially during an election campaign.

An attenuated social-democratic value base is all that’s left now.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Centre-left parties worldwide have struggled to reinvent themselves – what kind of ALP is fighting this election? – https://theconversation.com/centre-left-parties-worldwide-have-struggled-to-reinvent-themselves-what-kind-of-alp-is-fighting-this-election-181601

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The Reserve Bank, as expected, has thrown its wild card into the election campaign, but neither government nor opposition can be sure which side will be more damaged, or advantaged, by it.

Tuesday’s interest rate rise had been anticipated, was inevitable, and is the result substantially (though not entirely) of external forces. As to its timing: given the recent big inflation spike, the bank could not credibly have held off for another month.

Governor Philip Lowe made it clear the (independent) bank did not take into account any political considerations, in what is the first rise during a campaign since 2007, the election John Howard lost. “The election has no influence at all on today’s decision,” Lowe said.

But the decision feeds into this volatile battle, so will have political fallout. It will affect voters’ mood and anxieties. They may attribute blame.

It was obvious the extraordinarily low interest rates from the height of the pandemic could not and would not last. But many people (and, earlier, the Reserve Bank itself) had not expected rates to start to move up again as soon as this.

Indeed, at one stage the bank said it did not anticipate an increase before 2024. Not only was it wrong in that judgement, but some critics are now saying it should have acted earlier than now to raise rates.

The bank is starting on a road to “normalise” rates. The trouble is that the totally abnormal levels necessary in the COVID economy have become “normal” in the minds of many people, some of whom used them to bid up home prices in the expectation they would be able to afford the payments.

The rise of 25 basis points, taking the cash rate to 0.35%, was larger than the economic experts had been forecasting. But it is not just this one rise that will have an impact on voters’ calculations. Lowe made it plain more will follow, indicating the official rate will probably reach 2.5% at some unspecified time.

Some people are well placed at the moment to deal with this increase, having fixed rate mortgages and money put away. But others are not.

And, crucially, the rise comes on top of living costs going up on many other fronts. This will make it difficult for many people to cope. Some, even if not over-stretched immediately, will be anxious about how they will be placed in the future, such as when the fixed rate on their mortgage ends.

Politically, there will be cross currents.

The Essential poll, released on Tuesday, showed cost of living at the top of issues important to people “when it comes to voting at this year’s federal election”: 47% said it was “very important”, and 32% said was “important”.

Significantly, when people were asked which party they trusted more to manage various issues, on cost of living 40% said Labor, 30% said the Coalition, and 30% saw no difference.

That result is bad for the government. It suggests while polls usually give the Coalition the edge on economic management, when the economy issue gets down to the nitty gritty of household budgets, the government’s advantage may evaporate.

Morrison is also hoist on his own petard. On Monday, asked whether a rate rise would hurt the Coalition, the PM said, “It’s not about what it means for politics. I mean, sometimes you guys always think, see things, through a totally political lens.”

But of course Morrison mostly puts a political frame around economic data, extracting as much credit as possible when it’s good. So it would not be surprising if he cops a political backlash for something basically out of his control.

Morrison argued on Tuesday the government had provided a “shield” for Australians in the budget against cost of living pressures, just as it had provided them with an economic “shield” during the pandemic. (The government on Tuesday quickly announced that if re-elected it would freeze for two years the “deeming” rate used to determine the income earned by pensioners and beneficiaries from financial assets “to ensure payments are not reduced as earnings increase from deposit accounts held by social security recipients”. The PM described this as another “shield”.)

But Morrison’s basic pitch is that the rate rise reinforces the case for this not being a time for voters to risk switching to an alternative without an economic plan and an opposition leader who couldn’t remember some basic statistics.

The government will ramp up its “don’t risk it” warning even further in coming days. Negative messages are powerful in elections. But whether Morrison, himself viewed so negatively by voters, can drive this one home is another matter.

Michelle Grattan ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. View from The Hill: The interest rate rise is a political wild card – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-the-interest-rate-rise-is-a-political-wild-card-182342

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation politics team.

In this podcast Michelle and politics + society editor Amanda Dunn canvass the Reserve Bank’s increase in interest rates, and which side wins or loses from it, as cost of living is centre stage in the election battle. They also discuss Anthony Albanese’s launch, and the implications for the Liberals if Josh Frydenberg were to lose in Kooyong.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Word from The Hill: On the rate rise, Albanese’s launch and what a Frydenberg loss would mean for the Liberals – https://theconversation.com/word-from-the-hill-on-the-rate-rise-albaneses-launch-and-what-a-frydenberg-loss-would-mean-for-the-liberals-182339

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Isaac Gross, Lecturer in Economics, Monash University

Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe has announced he will lift the cash rate for the first time in a decade, by 0.25 percentage points, taking it from 0.10% to 0.35%.

Most market economists thought the bank would raise rates, but they were divided as to whether the bank would start small by lifting rates from 0.10% to 0.25%, or jump all the way to 0.50%.

The bank seems to have been similarly torn, and come in halfway between.

Backtracking on previous guidance

The hike comes despite the bank’s previous statements that it was keen to wait until the latest data on wages, due in a fortnight (just before the election).

Last Wednesday’s inflation news, which showed prices climbing much faster than expected, forced the bank to revise its stance and act quickly to tap on the brakes.

With so-called “trimmed mean” inflation (the RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation) jumping to 3.7% in the March quarter, the bank’s goal of having underlying inflation back in its target band has been fulfilled.

Indeed it is now just above the target band.

The only question the Reserve Bank board had to consider was whether inflation was sustainably back in the target band, something it has said it would need to see before it lifted rates.

A sustainable increase in prices is only likely when wages are also growing faster, which is why the bank was initially planning to wait for the wage news.

But it says its business liaison program (the regular meetings it has with businesses) has told it businesses are expecting to lift wages by much more than they have so far, meaning the official wage growth figures should be about to climb.

These wage rises would be driven by the difficulty in finding staff, and greater demands from staff given what’s happening to the cost of living. Workers may be becoming keener to walk if they don’t get what they want.

Treasury analysis of Tax Office data finds that workers who move jobs typically get pay rises of 8-10%.

The higher inflation has been driven by a series of large, hopefully temporary, shocks, most notably Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Australia’s floods, and the COVID lockdowns in China.

We don’t know how long the foreign shocks will last, but if they quickly subside, it would take domestic price pressure to make high inflation sustainable.

That’s why news of higher “non-tradable” (domestically driven) inflation last Wednesday convinced the bank the current inflation is likely to last.

Non-tradable inflation was 4.2% over the year to March, suggesting much of Australia’s higher inflation was home-grown.

More hikes imminent

The Reserve Bank never lifts rates once. In his press conference, Lowe said it was “not unreasonable” to expect the cash rate to climb to 2.5%.

“How quickly we get there, and if we do get there, will be determined by how events unfold,” he added, pointing out that 2.5% is the middle of the bank’s target band for inflation, meaning that when the cash rate gets there it will be zero in inflation-adjusted terms, rather than negative as it is at the moment.

Read more:
Why the RBA should go easy on interest rate hikes: inflation may already be retreating and going too hard risks a recession

Financial markets are pricing in 2.5% by the end of the year. That implies another two percentage points of hikes over the next six meetings, something that would mean a hike each and every month for the rest of the year.

Many doubt that rates will rise that high that fast. However, over the past year the market pricing has proved more accurate than economists and the Reserve Bank’s own guidance, as the governor conceded in his press conference, describing his guidance as “embarrassing”.

A hike to 2.5% means an extra $600

“We were told thousands of Australians would die from the pandemic, hospitals will be full, that we would have double-digit unemployment, perhaps 15% unemployment, that deep scarring would last for years, perhaps decades,” he said, indicating things had turned out far better than government advisers expected.

If fully passed on, today’s increase will add around $65 to the monthly cost of servicing a $500,000 mortgage. If the cash rate gets to 2.5%, it’ll be an extra $600.

Isaac Gross does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. RBA Governor Philip Lowe is hiking interest rates. Worst case, it’ll mean an extra $600 per month on a $500,000 mortgage – https://theconversation.com/rba-governor-philip-lowe-is-hiking-interest-rates-worst-case-itll-mean-an-extra-600-per-month-on-a-500-000-mortgage-182241

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

One of the stranger things about the Reserve Bank’s announcement of why it’s lifting interest rates by 0.25 percentage points is that it suggests inflation will come down by itself.

“A further rise in inflation is expected in the near term,” the RBA says, “but as supply-side disruptions are resolved, inflation is expected to decline back towards the target range of 2-3%.

So why raise rates now, for the first time in more than a decade? The bank says it is about “withdrawing some of the extraordinary monetary support that was put in place to help the Australian economy during the pandemic”, which is fair enough.

But our latest burst of inflation is weird, and resistant to rate hikes. If the Reserve Bank isn’t careful, too many more rate hikes like this might help bring on a recession.

Labor’s Anthony Albanese is as good as correct when he says “everything is going up except your wages” – not completely correct, because wages are going up, by a minuscule 2.3% per year on the official figures; but essentially correct, because when it comes to prices, almost every single one is going up.

Every three months the Bureau of Statistics prices around 100,000 goods and services. They account for almost everything we buy, the exceptions including illegal drugs and prostitution, where pricing would be “difficult and dangerous”.

Read more:
What’s in the CPI and what does it actually measure?

Among the types of bread the bureau prices are rye, sliced white, and multigrain, from all sorts of stores in every capital city. Where the bureau doesn’t price a type of loaf, it is a fair bet its price moves in line with the loaves it does price.

Then it groups these 100,000 or so prices into “expenditure classes”, 87 of them. “Bread” is one, “breakfast cereals” is another. Furniture and rent are two others.

Rarely do the expenditure classes move as one. Typically, only 50 or so of the 87 climb in price. But in the March quarter just finished, an astounding 70 climbed in price; according to Deutsche Bank economist Phil O’Donaghoe, that’s the most ever in the 72-year history of the consumer price index.

And the prices that climbed most – by far – were the ones we had little choice but to pay.

Necessities up, treats not as much

The bureau divides the 87 classes of goods into “non-discretionary” and “discretionary”.

It classifies bread as non-discretionary, biscuits as discretionary; petrol as non-discretionary, new cars as discretionary, and so on.

In the year to March, non-discretionary inflation (the price rises we can’t avoid) was a gargantuan 6.6% – well above the official inflation rate of 5.1%, and the highest in records going back to 2006.

Discretionary inflation – the price rises on the treats we splurge on if we’ve got the money – was only 2.7%.

Not since 2011 has the gap been that wide, which makes this inflation unusual.

While price rises are extraordinarily widespread – because most things need diesel to move them, and we were hit with floods, COVID-linked supply problems and the invasion of Ukraine all at once – they don’t seem to be the result of splurging.

These price rises are more like a tax.

The usual response to the usual hike in inflation is to hike interest rates. It’s a way to take away access to cash and push up mortgage and other payments so people have less money to spend and push up prices.

But this hike in inflation is doing that by itself, as the government recognised in the budget by handing out $250 cash payments to compensate.

These price rises are like a tax

If the big price rises are beyond our control and making us poorer, hiking interest rates to make us poorer still, in the hope we will splurge less on things whose prices we can influence (and whose price rises are small) might not achieve much.

Done repeatedly, the Reserve Bank could push up interest rates because inflation is high, discover inflation is still high, push interest rates higher in response, notice inflation is still high, push interest rates even higher in response… and so on, until it had brought on a recession.

A recession is already a risk with these sorts of price rises. If big enough, they can force consumers to cut other spending to the point where the economy stagnates and creates unemployment in the face of inflation – so-called “stagflation”.

Inflation might have already fallen

Another response would have been to wait. Seriously. The floods, invasion and supply problems pushing up prices in recent months are likely to pass, pushing down inflation and pushing down a lot of prices.

It might have already happened. The oil price has fallen 11% from its peak, down 2.5% in the past two weeks alone. And inflation has fallen – on one measure, to zero.

Read more:
Inflation hits 5.1%. How long until mortgage rates climb?

The official Bureau of Statistics measure of inflation is produced every three months, but for 13 years now the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research has produced its own simpler monthly measure, which tracks the official rate pretty well.

Although missing a lot (tracking fewer types of bread, and a national rather than a city-by-city measure) it is produced quickly and more often, providing a better insight into prices in real time.

The latest, released on Monday, points to an inflation rate of zero in April.

Why rate hikes need only be mild

That’s right. While some prices continued to rise as always, enough prices fell to offset that. The high inflation in the lead-up to March stopped or paused in April.

It’s different in the United States. There, inflation is being supercharged by wage growth averaging 9% and the Federal Reserve is about to lift interest rates aggressively.

Here, wages growth in the year to December was just 2.3%. We’ll get the figures for the year to March in a fortnight. There’s a good case for future rate hikes to be a good deal less aggressive.

Peter Martin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why the RBA should go easy on interest rate hikes: inflation may already be retreating and going too hard risks a recession – https://theconversation.com/why-the-rba-should-go-easy-on-interest-rate-hikes-inflation-may-already-be-retreating-and-going-too-hard-risks-a-recession-182273

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Deborah Ascher Barnstone, Professor, Course Director Undergraduate Studies, School of Architecture, University of Technology Sydney

By 2030, climate change will make one in 25 Australian homes “uninsurable” if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, with riverine flooding posing the greatest insurance risk, a new Climate Council analysis finds.

As a professor of architecture, I find this analysis grim, yet unsurprising. One reason is because Australian housing is largely unfit for the challenges of climate change.

In the past two years alone we’ve seen over 3,000 homes razed in the 2019-2020 megafires, and over 3,600 homes destroyed in New South Wales Northern Rivers region in the recent floods.

Building houses better at withstanding the impacts of climate change is one way we can protect ourselves in the face of future catastrophic conditions. I’m part of a research team that developed a novel, bushfire-resistant house design, which won an international award last month.

We hope its ability to withstand fires on its own will encourage owners – who would otherwise stay to defend their home – to flee when bushfires encroach. Let’s take a closer look at the risk of bushfires and why our housing design should one day become a new Australian norm.

Houses today are easy to burn

The Climate Council analysis reveals that across Australia’s 10 electorates most at risk of climate change impacts, one in seven houses will be uninsurable by 2030 under a high emissions scenario. This includes 25,801 properties (27%) in Victoria’s electorate of Nicholls, and 22,274 properties (20%) in Richmond, NSW.

Read more:
Properties under fire: why so many Australians are inadequately insured against disaster

Bushfires are among the worsening hazards causing homes to be uninsurable, and pose a particularly high risk to many thousands of homes across eastern Australia.

For example, the Climate Council found 55% of properties in the electorate of Macquarie, NSW, will be at risk of bushfires in 2030, if emissions do not fall. This jumps to 64% of properties by 2100.

The typical Australian house was not designed with bushfires in mind as most were built decades ago, before bushfire planning and construction regulations came into force.

This means they incorporate burnable materials, such as wood and plasterboard, and have features such as gutters which can trap embers.

What’s more, the gaps between building materials are often too large to keep embers out, which means spot fires can start on the inside of the house. And many houses are situated too close to fire-prone grasses and trees.

Indeed, at least 90% of houses currently in bushfire zones risk being destroyed in a bushfire.

How our new design can withstand fire

The prototypical bushfire resistant house we designed won first prize in the New Housing Division of the United States Renewable Energy Laboratory’s Solar Decathlon.

The house would be made from locally sourced, recycled steel frame. It would be mounted on reinforced concrete pilings to minimise its disturbance on the land, touching the ground only lightly. In this way, we help preserve the site’s biodiversity.

The primary building material is rammed earth – natural raw materials such as earth, chalk, lime, or gravel – which is not combustible.

The roof and some cladding are made of fire-resistant corrugated metal. Its glass facades have fire shutters made of fibre cement sheeting, a material that’s non-combustible and can be closed to seal the house.

Read more:
How a bushfire can destroy a home

Importantly, the gaps between these construction materials are 2 millimetres or less.

The sloped roofs tilt inwards to capture rainwater. And as the roofs are made of corrugated metal, which has channels in it, the house does not require gutters.

These channels guide rainwater into two open retention ponds either side of the entry, and into protected tanks beneath the house. This also helps protect the house in a bushfire, as it means the fire can’t penetrate from beneath.

When bushfires strike, the risk to life is highest when people stay and defend their homes. A design that can resist fire on its own encourages its owners to leave.

But it’s worth noting that it’s not a bunker for people to shelter in. No matter how well designed a house is, it always will be too dangerous to stay when a fire comes through, and particularly in the catastrophic and extreme fire conditions we’re increasingly experiencing.

It’s cost effective, too

The estimated cost of construction is between A$400,000 and $450,000. We deployed several strategies to keep costs down:

• the house is designed to be energy and water independent, so will not need city utilities

• it uses common construction techniques and is based on the construction industry standard for sheeting, so won’t require specialised builders and won’t waste any material

• rammed earth is relatively inexpensive because it can be sourced in many locations, often for free. We also envision using recycled materials wherever possible.

Aesthetically speaking, the design also presents an elegant domestic space, one that’s flexible enough it can easily be adapted to almost any site.

Read more:
12 simple ways you can reduce bushfire risk to older homes

The next stage is to build and test a prototype of the house so we can evaluate its performance and make improvements. We’re currently speaking to some potential funders to make this happen.

As climate change brings worsening disasters, Australia must brace for thousands more houses becoming destroyed. Innovative architecture like ours offers a chance for treasured homes and possessions to survive future catastrophes.

Deborah Ascher Barnstone does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How our bushfire-proof house design could help people flee rather than risk fighting the flames – https://theconversation.com/how-our-bushfire-proof-house-design-could-help-people-flee-rather-than-risk-fighting-the-flames-182046

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jim Gillespie, Associate Professor in Health Policy, Menzies Centre for Health Policy & Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney

Medicare has been mentioned a lot this election campaign but we’ve seen relatively few substantial policy announcements from the major parties.

Voters want improvements to Medicare and the health system. More than 13% of respondents to The Conversation’s #SetTheAgenda poll said health was one of the issues having the greatest impact on their life right now. Cost of living pressures were also a key concern.

As one respondent said, candidates should be talking about “increasing Medicare rebates to reduce gap payments” as they compete for votes, while another saw improving “rural and regional access to high quality care” as the key issue.

So what have the major parties committed to? And is this enough? We asked five experts to analyse and grade the major parties’ Medicare policies – from A for top marks to F for a failed effort.

Here are their detailed responses:

Coalition

Labor

Jim Gillespie receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council.

Lesley Russell worked as a policy advisor on health and related issues for the federal Australian Labor Party from 2002 to 2007.

Richard Norman receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, the Australian Research Council, and the Medical Research Future Fund.

Rosemary V Calder has received funding from the Australian government Department of Health. She has worked for both the Coalition and Labor governments, and was head of the Office for the Status of Women under the Howard government.

Stephen Duckett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How do the major parties rate on Medicare? We asked 5 experts – https://theconversation.com/how-do-the-major-parties-rate-on-medicare-we-asked-5-experts-182230

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daniel Angus, Professor of Digital Communication, Queensland University of Technology

We’re halfway through the federal election campaign, and by now you’ve probably seen a significant amount of political advertising – much of it online.

Online political advertising is more pervasive than its analogue predecessors, it can cost less (per individual ad), be deployed more rapidly, and can be micro-targeted towards specific audiences. The targeting can be aimed at protected social categories such as race and gender, and has been used to amplify mis- and disinformation.

Unlike billboards or TV ads which can be widely seen, targeted ads may be invisible beyond their intended audience. Researchers like us try to get a handle on online advertising through projects like the Australian Ad Observatory.

Here’s what we know so far about the state of online advertising in the federal election.

Dashboards

The big dogs in the online advertising world are Meta and Google. Meta allows advertising across its products including Facebook, Messenger, Instagram, and WhatsApp. Google allows ads in its search products, YouTube, and on Android.

Both companies have ad transparency dashboards. (Here is Meta’s, and here is Google’s.)

Read more:
Facebook ads have enabled discrimination based on gender, race and age. We need to know how ‘dark ads’ affect Australians

The dashboards detail the ads that are running, who is running them, and some basic aggregate data on targeting by geography, gender, and age.

For example, we can see the Australian Electoral Commission has spent around $383,000 on Facebook advertising in the past month, largely promoting election-related facts and voter registration information.

However, these tools are quite basic, and don’t offer all the information on how ads are targeted, nor insights into trends and patterns. To fill the void, researchers and journalists have been building their own.

For Facebook, we have partnered with colleagues at Ryerson University in Canada to extend their PoliDashboard to Australia. Colleagues at The University of Queensland have also released an excellent Facebook ad spend tracker.

For Google, The Guardian Australia has released data visualisations extending Google’s transparency dashboard with more useful data aggregation and geo-visual elements.

So what have we seen so far in this campaign?

Facebook focus

Analysing spending data from April 1 2022 onward, we can already see differences in how particular parties are strategically purchasing ads on platforms like Facebook.

In the lower house, the traditional Liberal stronghold of Kooyong has been an early standout. Polling suggests the incumbent, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, is under threat from “teal” independent Dr Monique Ryan.

Read more:
View from The Hill: Warring within Coalition over 2050 target brings some gold dust for ‘teals’

Since the start of April Frydenberg has tipped around $80,000 into Facebook advertising in his own seat, while Ryan has spent around $41,000. Altogether, more than twice as much has been spent in Kooyong as in the next highest spending seats of Maribyrnong, North Sydney, and Wentworth.

In the senate, Queensland has so far attracted the most spending at around $110,000. Here, a rogues’ gallery of former LNP and other far-right candidates are scrambling to win one of the two seats that are likely to be up for grabs.

Beyond Facebook

We have also seen significant spending from political parties and registered organisations on Google ads. The total amount has been $17.7 million since 15 November 2021, of which United Australia Party’s ads account for a whopping $15 million, which includes many YouTube ads.

Over the past two years, Google has also introduced more advertising products and services in Android mobile games.

Ads in this gaming ecosystem are very difficult to track. The Google transparency dashboard doens’t include data that enables us to determine which ads appear in this specific ecosystem. However, users of our Ad Observatory have sent us photos and screenshots of UAP ads appearing within their mobile games. It seems some of that $15 million is finding its way into mobile in-game advertising.

Perhaps the most creative use of online advertising so far has come from Stephen Bates, the Greens candidate for Brisbane. Bates took out a series of ads on Grindr, a social networking and dating app for gay, bi, trans, and queer people, and men who have sex with men.

Bates’ tongue-in-cheek ads have slogans like “Spice up Canberra with a third” and “The best parliaments are hung”. Unlike other sometimes cringe-worthy attempts by politicians to appeal to specific communities, Bates has leaned into his own identity as an openly gay candidate in selecting this platform and developing ads using Grindr’s platform-specific vernacular.

What about Twitter, TikTok and the other big platforms?

Meanwhile, if you spend your time on Twitter or TikTok you won’t see any political advertising during this campaign.

Why not? It’s complicated, but it mainly goes back to the Cambridge Analytica scandal of the mid 2010s, in which personal profile data of more than 50 million Facebook users was siphoned from the platform and used to build a profiling tool that was then leveraged for political gain.

Mass-scale online ad microtargeting using this tool may have played a significant role in the success of Donald Trump’s 2016 US presidential campaign and the Brexit “leave” campaign the same year.

These events thrust online political advertising into the spotlight. In its wake lawmakers and civil society groups around the globe have steadily ramped up pressure on the platforms regarding online political advertising.

Read more:
Twitter is banning political ads – but the real battle for democracy is with Facebook and Google

In response, Twitter and TikTok have decided political ads aren’t worth the trouble, and banned them outright.

Facebook instead shut access to third-party data gathering – which had the side effect of making genuine, ethical scholarly research more difficult.

Does any of this work, though?

Online political advertising is but one part of an overall campaign, but it can be used to tip the balance in one party’s favour.

In other countries, online advertising may focus on encouraging supporters to vote and discouraging opponents. However, Australia’s compulsory voting means campaigns are likely to focus on persuading a relatively small number of swinging voters. This is turn means specific highly contested seats (such as Kooyong) may play an amplified role within our elections.

One thing to watch in this election and beyond are the growing calls for truth in political advertising. Online election advertising will only become more intense, so we will need ways to reign in mis- and disinformation.

Read more:
Few restrictions, no spending limit, and almost no oversight: welcome to political advertising in Australia

Daniel Angus receives funding from Australian Research Council through Discovery Projects DP200100519 ‘Using machine vision to explore Instagram’s everyday promotional cultures’, DP200101317 ‘Evaluating the Challenge of ‘Fake News’ and Other Malinformation’, and Linkage Project LP190101051 ‘Young Australians and the Promotion of Alcohol on Social Media’. He is an Associate Investigator with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision Making & Society, CE200100005.

Axel Bruns receives funding from the Australian Research Council through Discovery project DP200101317 Evaluating the Challenge of ‘Fake News’ and Other Malinformation, Laureate Fellowship FL210100051 Dynamics of Partisanship and Polarisation in Online Public Debate, and the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision-Making and Society (ADM+S).

Ehsan Dehghan receives funding from the Digital Society Project, for a project to create a dataset of candidates in the 2022 Australian federal elections

– ref. Facebook, YouTube, games & Grindr: what we know about online ads in the federal election – https://theconversation.com/facebook-youtube-games-and-grindr-what-we-know-about-online-ads-in-the-federal-election-182137

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amy Nethery, Senior Lecturer in Politics and Policy Studies, Deakin University

One of the Morrison government’s biggest challenges in this election campaign is the rise of the “teals”, a group of 22 independents who have received funding from Climate 200.

Running on platforms of science-backed climate action, integrity reform and real progress on gender equality, they are challenging Liberal MPs in urban electorates traditionally considered Liberal party heartland.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, who is facing a serious threat from medical doctor Monique Ryan in the inner-Melbourne seat of Kooyong, has repeatedly used the term “fake” independents to describe these challengers. Former Prime Minister John Howard has similarly accused them of “posing” as independents. Prime Minister Scott Morrison says they are the “voices of” Labor and the Greens.

Read more:
Below the Line: Former independent Cathy McGowan hits back at John Howard’s ‘anti-Liberal groupies’ jibe – podcast

This strategy of playing the woman and not the ball – as well as the advertising spend in electorates like Kooyong – suggests the Liberals are concerned. They have some good reasons to be.

The teal appeal

It is certainly true these independents are running in Liberal, not Labor seats. But as Climate 200 convener Simon Holmes a Court argues, they are running with the goal of dislodging government MPs (which of course, happen to be Liberal).

It is worth noting that not all the Climate 200-backed independents use the teal colour for their campaigns. North Sydney’s Kylea Tink uses pink, while Indi’s Helen Haines uses orange. Yet, the choice of teal for most campaigns – a colour between blue and green – does give an indication of their message to the moderate Liberal voters they are trying to attract.

The teal independents are speaking directly to moderate Liberal constituents who are frustrated with the (blue) Liberal Party’s positioning on social and environmental issues.

While these same voters may never vote Labor or Greens, many are alienated by Morrison and his government, particularly on climate change and women’s issues.

It is significant that 19 of the 22 Climate 200 candidates are women, all of whom have had highly successful careers in their own right. High-profile candidates include Ryan (Kooyong), a professor and head of neurology at the Royal Children’s Hospital, Zoe Daniel (Goldstein) a former ABC foreign correspondent, and Allegra Spender (Wentworth) the chief executive of the Australian Business and Community Network.

The teal independents are not political staffers taking the next step towards inevitable political careers. These are professional women making a radical sideways leap because, they say, this is what the times require. It’s a compelling story.

Climate 200

To receive Climate 200 funding and campaign support, teal independents have agreed to run on three key policies – climate, integrity, and gender equality – and have demonstrated they have the backing of their communities.

Holmes a Court has been at pains to argue his organisation is not a political party – it is a platform to support independents based on their commitment to the three main goals. As he told the National Press Club in February:

The movement is nothing like a party – there is no hierarchy, no leader, no head office. No coordinated policy platforms.

Policy comparison

So, how do the independent candidates measure against the Coalition, Labor and the Greens? I have reviewed the policy platforms of Spender, Ryan and Daniel as three of the most high profile new independent candidates.

On climate, Spender proposes to cut emissions by “at least 50% by 2030”, while Daniel and Ryan want 60% by 2030, and Daniel adds an 80% renewable energy target by 2030.

Read more:
What’s going on with independent candidates and the federal election?

These targets are more ambitious than both the Coalition and Labor, but less ambitious than the Greens, who want 75% emissions reduction by 2030, and net zero by 2035.

On integrity in politics, all three independents variously demand a “strong”, “effective” anti-corruption body “with teeth”, greater transparency around tax-payer funded programs, reform of political campaign funding rules, and truth in political advertising. These policies largely align with Labor’s integrity policies, which include a National Anti-Corruption Commission by the end of 2022. They also align with those of the Greens, who add a role for the National Audit Office to audit all government programs.

Finally, all the teal independents have a range of policies to increase women’s safety and equality, including childcare, parental leave, better pay for caring professions, women’s rights at work and programs to end family violence. On these policies, and simply the way they recognise the urgency of this issue, the independents are also more aligned with Labor and the Greens than the Coalition.

The Liberal response

The Liberal Party is certainly taking this challenge seriously, diverting campaign funding and resources to seats that it would otherwise consider safe.

For example, it is spending up big on nine-metre-wide billboards to “sandbag” Kooyong, a seat that has been held by that party since Federation. In Wentworth, Dave Sharma’s posters use the same colour teal as his challenger, Spender, and have no Liberal party logo. In Goldstein, a stoush over election signs ended up in court.

Another way they are taking it seriously is by trying to undermine the authenticity of the independents. If voters are seeking something different from the major parties, what better way to sway them away from changing their vote than suggesting their local independent isn’t really independent?

On this, the Liberal party is incorrect. It is better to locate these candidates within a lineage of independents that includes Tony Windsor, Cathy McGowan, and Kerryn Phelps. Their goal is to use the power of the cross-benches in a hung parliament. A Labor majority would, in fact, diminish their power if elected, and work against their ambitions.

The power of independents

Major polls are suggesting a tight race between the major parties. A hung parliament, with independents holding the balance of power, is a highly possible outcome post May 21.

Despite fear campaigns from both major parties, it is worth remembering that Australia’s last minority government was one of the most successful, passing more legislation than any modern government before or since.

Windsor and Rob Oakeshott have both said they decided to support Julia Gillard’s government because she treated them with respect during negotiations in 2013, unlike her opponent, Tony Abbott.

This is a lesson that the Liberal party would do well to heed again.

Read more:
Could the 2022 election result in a hung parliament? History shows Australians have nothing to fear from it

Amy Nethery does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why teal independents are seeking Liberal voters and spooking Liberal MPs – https://theconversation.com/why-teal-independents-are-seeking-liberal-voters-and-spooking-liberal-mps-182133

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chris Martin, Senior Research Fellow, City Futures Research Centre, UNSW Sydney

“Going home” is a classic metaphor for exiting prison. But most people exiting prison in Australia either expect to be homeless, or don’t know where they will be staying when released.

Our recent research for AHURI (the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute) shows post-release housing assistance is a potentially powerful lever in arresting the imprisonment–homelessness cycle.

We found ex-prisoners who get public housing have significantly better criminal justice outcomes than those who receive private rental assistance only.

The benefit, in dollars terms, of public housing outweighs the cost.

Read more:
How we can put a stop to the revolving door between homelessness and imprisonment

The imprisonment-homelessness connection

There is strong evidence linking imprisonment and homelessness. Post-release homelessness and unstable housing is a predictor of reincarceration. And prior imprisonment is a known predictor of homelessness. It is a vicious cycle.

People in prison often contend with:

• mental health conditions (40%)
• cognitive disability (33%)
• problematic alcohol or other drug use (up to 66%) and
• past homelessness (33%).

People with such complex support needs are often deemed “too difficult” for community-based support services and so end up entangled in the criminal justice system.

Also, prisons are themselves places of stress and suffering. So people leaving prison a high-needs group for housing assistance and support.

There are about 43,000 people in prison in Australia. Over the year there will be even more prison releases (because some people exit and enter multiple times).

According to the latest published data:

• only 46% of releasees expect to go to their own home (owned or rented) on release
• more expect to be in short-term or emergency accommodation (44%) or sleeping rough (2%), or
• they don’t know where they will stay.

Ex-prisoners are the fastest growing client group for Australia’s Specialist Homelessness Services.

Over the past decade, imprisonment rates in Australia have been rising.

Meanwhile, funding for social housing – public housing provided by state governments, and the community housing provided by non-profit community organisations – has been declining in real terms.

We must turn both those trends around.

The difference public housing makes

In our research, we investigated the effect of public housing on post-release pathways. We analysed data about a sample of people with complex support needs who had been in prison in NSW.

The de-identified data show peoples’ contacts before and after prison with various NSW government agencies, including criminal justice institutions and DCJ Housing, the state public housing provider.

We compared 623 people who received a public housing tenancy at some point after prison with a similar number of people who were eligible for public housing but received private rental assistance only (such as bond money).

On a range of measures, the public housing group had better criminal justice outcomes.

The charts below compare the number of police incidents for each group.

The first chart shows recorded police incidents for the private rental assistance group, which gradually rose over the period for which we have data.

The second chart shows police incidents for the public housing group: they also had a rising trend, until they received public housing (year 0 on the x-axis), after which police incidents went down 8.9% per year.

For the housed group:

• court appearances were down 7.6% per year
• proven offences (being found guilty of something at trial) were down 7.6% per year
• time in custody was down 11.2% per year
• time on supervised orders (court orders served in the community, including parole) initially increased, then went down 7.8% per year
• justice costs per person, following an initial decrease of A$4,996, went down a further $2,040 per year per person.

When we put a dollar value on these benefits, providing a public housing tenancy is less costly than paying Rent Assistance in private rental (net benefit $5,000) or assisting through Specialist Homelessness Services (net benefit $35,000).

Unfortunately, public housing is in very short supply.

For our public housing group, the average time between release and public housing was five years. Others are never housed.

Post-release pathways are fraught

We interviewed corrections officers, reintegration support workers, housing workers, and people who had been in prison, across three states.

They were unanimous: there is a dearth of housing options for people exiting prison.

A Tasmanian ex-prisoner, who lived in a roof-top tent on his car on release, said:

You basically get kicked out the door and kicked in the guts and they say, ‘Go do whatever you need to do, see ya’.

Planning for release is often last-minute. A NSW reintegration support worker told us:

It’s not coordinated. We’ll get a prison ringing up on the day of release saying, ‘Can you pick this woman up?’ on the day of release, when they knew it was coming months in advance. There’s no planning.

A housing worker in Victoria described those next steps as a series of unstable, short-term arrangements, beset by pitfalls:

They could easily be waiting a couple of years, realistically. And for them that’s a long time, and so far off in the distance it’s difficult to conceive of. And a long time in which for things could go wrong in their lives – to be homeless or back in prison, all sorts of things … What they do in the meantime: they couch surf, stay with family, stay in motels, stay in cars/stolen cars, stay with friends, sleep rough, all those things.

A Tasmanian corrections officer told us:

People want to come back to custody because they’ve then got a roof over their head. They don’t have to worry; they’re getting fed, they can stay warm.

It’s not just about housing support

Community sector organisations specialising in supporting people in contact with the criminal justice system, such as the Community Restorative Centre (CRC) in NSW, do extraordinary work providing services and support that aim to break entrenched cycles of disadvantage and imprisonment.

However, this sector’s funding has been turbulent, marked by short-term programs.

In another project by some members of this research team, we saw the difference CRC made to 275 of its clients over a number of years. This evaluation found supported clients had 63% fewer custody episodes than a comparison group – a net cost saving to government of $10-16 million.

These support services would be even more effective if clients had more stable housing. As it is, specialist alcohol and other drug case workers are often spending their time dealing with clients’ housing crises.

Secure, affordable public housing is an anchor for people exiting prison as they work to build lives outside of the criminal justice system.

It is also a stable base from which to receive and engage with support services. It pays to invest in both.

Read more:
Caring for ex-prisoners under the NDIS would save money and lives

Chris Martin receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) and the ACOSS-UNSW Poverty and Inequality Partnership. This story is part of The Conversation’s Breaking the Cycle series, which is about escaping cycles of disadvantage. It is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay Foundation.

Eileen Baldry receives funding from the ARC, the NHMRC and AHURI. She is affiliated with the Justice Reform Initiative, the NSW Ageing and Disability Commission, the Noffs Foundation and the Public Interest Advocacy Centre.

Patrick Burton is funded by the AHURI and is affiliated with the Justice Reform Initiative, Brain Injury Association of Tasmania and JusTas.

Rebecca Reeve receives funding from the Paul Ramsay Foundation. She is affiliated with the Social Outcomes Lab.

Rob White receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute and is affiliated with the Justice Reform Initiative, Just Desserts (drug court support group) and the Brain Injury Association of Tasmania (criminal justice steering group).

Ruth McCausland receives funding from the Paul Ramsay Foundation, NHMRC, AHURI and Australian Partnership Prevention Centre, and is affiliated with the Community Restorative Centre.

Stuart Thomas receives funding from the ARC, Department of Health, National Mental Health Commission, Mental Health Victoria, Mind Australia, AHURI and ACEM. He is affiliated with the Law Enforcement and Mental Health Special Interest Group of the Global Law Enforcement and Public Health Association. .

– ref. Giving ex-prisoners public housing cuts crime and re-incarceration – and saves money – https://theconversation.com/giving-ex-prisoners-public-housing-cuts-crime-and-re-incarceration-and-saves-money-180027

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wilfred Yang Wang, Lecturer in Media & Communications Studies, The University of Melbourne

Concerns about fake news and misinformation spreading on social media among Chinese communities are once again emerging, as they were during the 2019 election campaign.

There have been allegations against both major parties in recent weeks. The ABC reported a group of Liberal Party supporters systematically spread fake news about prominent Labor supporters in the Chinese community via WeChat.

At the same time, a local Labor branch in Queensland is accused of spreading a conspiracy meme against Gladys Liu, the incumbent Liberal candidate of the ultra-marginal Victorian seat of Chisholm and the first ethnic Chinese woman to serve in the House of Representatives.

Liu’s supporters are also not free from controversy. Some were accused of spreading misinformation in Chinese communities during the last federal election.

Drawing on my research on Chinese language media and Chinese communities in Australia, here are are some ways we can tackle fake news in non-English speaking communities.

Fake news and CALD Australians

Fake news is often systematically arranged by interest groups (such as political organisations) to achieve certain goals. This contradicts the popular assumption it’s fragmented or emerges spontaneously.

While every section of the society is subjected to fake news, culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) communities are often more vulnerable to misinformation.

Read more:
Here’s how disinformation could disrupt the Australian election

It is widely acknowledged mainstream media outlets don’t do a good job of representing or communicating with CALD communities.

We know CALD communities often seek online and informal sources for information – as they did during COVID.

The information gap

Poor English skills can also make it hard for some non-English speakers to access credible authority sources directly.

Even when media outlets translate certain articles, they can lack the nuance to convey critical details.

My as yet unpublished research suggests many Chinese Australians who cannot understand English haven’t been accessing public health messages from government or health authorities during the COVID pandemic.

Instead, they tend to rely on community leaders, friends and family members to make sense of important public messaging, via apps like WhatsApp and WeChat.

This aligns with previous findings that Chinese Australians trust political news on Chinese platforms such as WeChat not because of the platform itself, but because of the people from the similar cultural and linguistic communities they share the platform with.

My research

In my as yet unpublished research, only two of 31 older Chinese Australians I interviewed read English mainstream Australians news daily. The vast majority obtained most of their news about COVID from instant messenger groups, social media platforms such as WeChat, and from sources outside Australia.

None of the participants were aware of the Chinese language version of ABC news. Only around half of the interviewees knew about the SBS Mandarin and Cantonese services, but none were aware of their social media accounts and smartphone apps.

The participants’ feedback shows the failure of mainstream media to engage non-English speaking CALD Australians. This can create a breeding ground for the spread of misinformation, which can potentially distort voters’ decisions and influence election outcomes.

What can we do?

There are several things governments should do in collaboration with communities to help CALD Australians gain direct access to credible news and to become more aware of misinformation.

Promote the ABC and SBS

Both federal and state governments should promote ABC and SBS in-language news, such as SBS Mandarin, especially during important public conversations such as pandemic management and elections.

A good example is SBS’s COVID myth buster portal, which is available in more than 60 languages. This collates culturally appropriate news and information to help CALD communities stay informed about COVID, and serves as a good model for other important topics and events such as an election.

Promoting the ABC and SBS requires a strategic approach. Instead of governments running a mass campaign, which can be costly and ineffective, a better approach would be to co-develop resources and information with the language teams of the respective services. These resources can then be promoted to community leaders for them to disseminate to their communities.

More resources and training should be devoted to support journalists’ cultural literacy.

Digital literacy training

Federal and state governments do fund digital literacy initiatives, such as BeConnected.

But typically these don’t have specific resources and training to support CALD communities.

They’re often too general and lack systematic programs to help CALD Australians learn how to download, operate, and access credible news and information and to improve their political literacy.

Read more:
Chinese social media platform WeChat could be a key battleground in the federal election

Tackling fake news in CALD communities requires partnerships between governments, community groups and media organisations.

There should be a particular focus on digital literacy of community leaders.

And more resources should be devoted to improve journalists’ cultural competence in communicating with CALD Australians.

Wilfred Yang Wang is affiliated with the Centre for Holistic Health, Victorian Multicultural Commission and Knox City Council’s Multicultural Advisory Committee on voluntary basis.

– ref. How can we stop fake election news spreading in migrant communities? – https://theconversation.com/how-can-we-stop-fake-election-news-spreading-in-migrant-communities-182119

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Conor McCafferty, PhD Student, Murdoch Children’s Research Institute

In the majority of cases, children who catch COVID won’t end up suffering serious illness. Kids have fewer symptoms, less severe disease, and tend to recover faster than adults.

The best case scenario for children sees them having relatively manageable symptoms, recovering fully, and soon testing negative. As researchers, we wanted to understand why some children have a far worse experience.

If they don’t recover, children with COVID can go on develop two different disorders. The first is Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) where patients have painful inflammation on their skin, eyes and even internal organs such as the heart, lungs, and brain. The most fascinating (and confusing) thing about MIS-C is it never occurs in adults, only children. The second disorder is Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS), a life-threatening respiratory failure as a result of serious COVID.

By comparing blood samples from healthy children and those with serious COVID, we identified two sets of proteins that were switched on in kids with these frightening syndromes.

Read more:
Multisystem inflammatory syndrome after COVID in children is rare but makes the body fight itself

Searching for the triggers

We have spent the past two years trying to understand how children’s bodies deal with COVID, and why it is so different from adults. Through our research, we wanted to understand exactly what the virus does to children to trigger a small number of them to develop MIS-C or ARDS, so we could help to figure out new ways of diagnosing or even treating them.

You may have heard of genomics – a scientific technique that can investigate all of a person’s genetic information (their genome) at once. In our study, we used proteomics which allows us to look at hundreds of proteins (the proteome) simultaneously.

Whenever something changes in the body (such as catching a virus like COVID) it can cause changes to your proteome. This helps tell us which systems of the body are affected.

We took blood samples from healthy children (collected at the Royal Children’s Hospital, Melbourne) and compared them to blood samples from children with MIS-C or ARDS (collected at the Hôpital Necker Enfants Malades, France). We performed proteomic experiments on the samples and found hundreds of proteins from each patient.

When we compared the amount of each protein in samples from children with severe COVID to the healthy blood samples, we found there were 85 proteins that changed in MIS-C and 52 proteins that changed in ARDS.

Read more:
Got a child with COVID at home? Here’s how to look after them

Blood clotting and immunity play a role

Listing a set of proteins is just the first step. It’s really important for us to know exactly what functions these proteins have in the body. By understanding the role each of those proteins plays, we can start to understand the biology underneath the disease.

Proteins that control blood-clotting and the immune system were affected in both MIS-C and ARDS patients, telling us these systems play an important role in severe COVID. We were also able to show that children with MIS-C have affected proteins connected to B cells (which help facilitate an immune response) and antibodies (which fight off foreign invaders in the body). Meanwhile, children with ARDS have affected proteins connected to the breakdown of red blood cells (which transport oxygen around the body).

Read more:
Do kids get long COVID? And how often? A paediatrician looks at the data

Our work continues

Fortunately, cases of MIS-C and ARDS are rare. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try to understand how they work. Especially when severe COVID is so dangerous for the children affected and frightening for their families.

By narrowing down the potential blood proteins involved in severe COVID from hundreds down to less than 100, we can hone in on developing better diagnostic and treatment information.

This study was part of our larger research aim, which was to understand how COVID impacts adults and children differently.

We’ve already been able to show that platelets (small blood cells that trigger clotting) activate in adults and children, while blood clots formed in children due to COVID are more porous and less stable.

The author wishes to acknowledge the strong collaborations between the University of Melbourne, the Royal Children’s Hospital, the Royal Children’s Hospital Foundation, Murdoch Children’s Research Institute, Hôpital Necker and the Australian Proteome Analysis Facility that made this work possible.

Conor McCafferty does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. We’ve pinpointed blood proteins activated in the most severe cases of COVID in children – https://theconversation.com/weve-pinpointed-blood-proteins-activated-in-the-most-severe-cases-of-covid-in-children-182294

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Raymond Walker, Research Officer – School of Psychiatry, UNSW Sydney

People with intellectual disability only have their disability noted by hospital staff in one in every five hospital admissions, our new study shows.

Recognising someone has a disability is critical to their care. This finding helps explain why many people with intellectual disability do not get hospital care that best meets their needs.

Urgent action is needed to make our hospital system safe, effective and tailored to the needs of around 450,000 Australians living with intellectual disability.

A system of neglect

Our research looked at historical information from hospitals and disability services in New South Wales between 2005 to 2015 (the most recent accessible data).

We found 12,593 adults with intellectual disability who used disability services in this time. In total, these adults went to hospital 80,960 times from 2005 to 2015. But in only 19,261 of these visits did the hospital recognise the person had an intellectual disability.

Intellectual disability is broadly defined as a lifelong condition that affects intellectual skills, behaviour and the ability to perform everyday tasks.

Intellectual disability exists across a spectrum. People with mild intellectual disability might engage in activities like full time work and sport. People with profound intellectual disability may not be able to communicate and require full time care.

Little has changed in the health care system to fix this issue since the data in our research was collected.

In 2008, Australia ratified the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, which protects the right to the highest attainable standard of health without discrimination on the basis of disability. But the reality for Australians living with intellectual disability is starkly different.

Right now, the Royal Commission into Violence, Abuse, Neglect and Exploitation of People with Disability is looking into problems faced by people with disabilities.

Based mainly on evidence from people with intellectual disability on the autism spectrum, the commission found people with cognitive disabilities face neglect in the health system. They found people with disabilities experience higher costs, longer waiting lists, physically inaccessible services and complex medical forms.

A person with intellectual disability may experience delayed diagnosis and inefficiency because of communication difficulties. Health professionals may lack the skills to assess and manage medical conditions when intellectual disability is also present.

Poorer care ends lives sooner

Our previous research has shown gaps in preventative health care, mental health care and in life expectancy. People with intellectual disability die on average 26 years younger than the general population.

Most of this difference in life expectancy is not specifically related to the intellectual disability itself or its causes. Rather, it relates to lifelong health disadvantage, lack of access and failure to manage emerging health conditions.

Potentially avoidable deaths (from conditions that could have been prevented through individualised care or treatment, like viral pneumonia, asthma, or diabetes) are more than twice as likely in people with intellectual disability.

Though Australia has one of the best health care systems in the world, people with intellectual disability experience neglect within it.

Ahead of the upcoming national election, people with intellectual disability are calling out this “deadly discrimination”.

Read more:
‘Don’t shove us off like we’re rubbish’: what people with intellectual disability told us about their local community

How do we improve recognition?

To improve the recognition of intellectual disability when someone goes to hospital, we would like to see a national health disability indicator in the form of a code. When noted on their health records, this indicator would tell the health care system a patient has an intellectual disability (with the permission of that person), and they might need reasonable adjustments to be made.

This indicator would help make intellectual disability visible in hospitals, and ensure people get the best possible care.

An indicator of this kind is already used in the UK. People with disabilities help set up their own indicators to make sure their needs are met.

Read more:
Mums with an intellectual disability already risk family violence and losing their kids. Coronavirus could make things worse

Reasonable adjustments

Reasonable adjustments are things that need to be done to make health care accessible to a person with disability.

For people with intellectual disability, reasonable adjustments can include adjusting communication, providing extra time and support, and involving the person in choices and decisions. Research shows reasonable adjustments improve care.

In the UK, all hospitals must make reasonable adjustments and the person with disability must be asked about what adjustments they need. Hospitals that do not make reasonable adjustments risk losing accreditation and funding.

In New South Wales, hospitals are meant to make reasonable adjustments for people with disability. However, our study suggests most of the time, when a person with intellectual disability goes to hospital, this does not happen because the hospital remains unaware of their needs.

Read more:
‘I know that you know’ – 5 ways to help people with aphasia to communicate

Adrian Raymond Walker currently works in the Department of Developmental Disability Neuropsychiatry at The University of New South Wales, Sydney. The department receives core funding from the NSW Government Department of Health, and receives grants from multiple sources including the National Health and Medical Research Council.

Julian Trollor receives core funding for his university department from the NSW Government Department of Health. He is also the recipient of multiple grants from national competitive grant bodies including but not limited to the National Health and Medical Research Council. He sits on multiple Commonwealth and State government committees related to the health and wellbeing of people with disabilities.

– ref. Hospitals only note a person’s intellectual disability 20% of the time – so they don’t adjust their care – https://theconversation.com/hospitals-only-note-a-persons-intellectual-disability-20-of-the-time-so-they-dont-adjust-their-care-180590

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yuanming Wang, PhD student, University of Sydney

When a star explodes and dies in a supernova, it takes on a new life of sorts.

Pulsars are the extremely rapidly rotating objects left over after massive stars have exhausted their fuel supply. They are extremely dense, with a mass similar to the Sun crammed into a region the size of Sydney.

Pulsars emit beams of radio waves from their poles. As those beams sweep across Earth, we can detect rapid pulses as often as hundreds of times per second. With this knowledge, scientists are always on the lookout for new pulsars within and outside our Milky Way galaxy.

In research published today in the Astrophysical Journal, we detail our findings on the most luminous radio pulsar ever discovered outside the Milky Way.

This pulsar, named PSR J0523-7125, is located in the Large Magellanic Cloud – one of our closest neighbouring galaxies – and is more than ten times brighter than all other radio pulsars outside the Milky Way. It may be even brighter than those within it.

Why wasn’t PSR J0523-7125 discovered before?

There are more than 3,300 radio pulsars known. Of these, 99% reside within our galaxy. Many were discovered with CSIRO’s famous Parkes radio telescope, Murriyang, in New South Wales.

About 30 radio pulsars have been found outside our galaxy, in the Magellanic Clouds. So far we don’t know of any in more distant galaxies.

Astronomers search for pulsars by looking for their distinctive repeating signals in radio telescope data. This is a computationally intensive task. It works most of the time, but this method can sometimes fail if the pulsar is unusual: such as very fast, very slow, or (in this case) if the pulse is very wide.

A very wide pulse reduces the signature “flickering” astronomers look for, and can make the pulsar harder to find. We now know PSR J0523-7125 has an extremely wide beam, and thus escaped detection.

The Large Magellanic Cloud has been explored by the Parkes telescope several times over the past 50 years, and yet this pulsar had never been spotted. So how were we able to find it?

An unusual object emerges in ASKAP data

Pulsar beams can be highly circularly polarised, which means the electric field of light waves rotate in a circular motion as the waves travel through space.

Such circularly polarised signals are very rare, and usually only emitted from objects with very strong magnetic fields, such as pulsars or dwarf stars.

We wanted to pinpoint unusual pulsars that are hard to identify with traditional methods, so we set out to find them by specifically detecting circularly polarised signals.

Our eyes can’t distinguish between polarised and unpolarised light. But the ASKAP radio telescope, owned and operated by Australia’s national science agency CSIRO, has the equivalent of polarised sunglasses that can recognise circularly polarised events.

When looking at data from our ASKAP Variables and Slow Transients (VAST) survey, an undergraduate student noticed a circular polarised object near the centre of the Large Magellanic Cloud. Moreover, this object changed brightness over the course of several months: another very unusual property that made it unique.

This was unexpected and exciting, since there was no known pulsar or dwarf star at this position. We figured the object must be something new. We observed it with many different telescopes, at different wavelengths, to try and solve the mystery.

Apart from the Parkes (Murriyang) telescope, we used the space-based Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory (to observe it at X-ray wavelengths) and the Gemini telescope in Chile (to observe it at infrared wavelengths). Yet we detected nothing.

The object couldn’t be a star, as stars would be visible in optical and infrared light. It was unlikely to be a normal pulsar, as the pulses would have been detected by Parkes. Even the Gemini telescope didn’t provide an answer.

Ultimately we turned to the new, highly sensitive MeerKAT radio telescope in South Africa, owned and operated by the South African Radio Astronomy Observatory. Observations with MeerKAT revealed the source is indeed a new pulsar, PSR J0523-7125, spinning at a rate of about three rotations per second.

Below you can see the MeerKAT image of the pulsar with polarised “sunglasses” on (left) and off (right). If you move the slider, you’ll notice PSR J0523-7125 is the only bright object when the glasses are on.

Our analysis also confirmed its location within the Large Magellanic Cloud, about 160,000 light years away. We were surprised to find PSR J0523-7125 is more than ten times brighter than all other pulsars in that galaxy, and possibly the brightest pulsar ever found.

Read more:
Fifty years ago Jocelyn Bell discovered pulsars and changed our view of the universe

What new telescopes can do

The discovery of PSR J0523-7125 demonstrates our ability to find “missing” pulsars using this new technique.

By combining this method with ASKAP’s and MeerKAT’s capabilities, we should be able to discover other types of extreme pulsars – and maybe even other unknown objects that are hard to explain.

Extreme pulsars are one of the missing pieces in the vast picture of the pulsar population. We’ll need to find more of them before we can truly understand pulsars within the framework of modern physics.

This discovery is just the beginning. ASKAP has now finished its pilot surveys and is expected to launch into full operational capacity later this year. This will pave the way for even more discoveries, when the global SKA (square kilometre array) telescope network starts observing in the not too distant future.

Akncowledgement: We acknowledge the Wajarri Yamatji as the traditional owners of the Murchison Radio-astronomy Observatory site where ASKAP is located, and the Wiradjuri people as the traditional owners of the Parkes Observatory.

Yuanming Wang receives support from the China Scholarship Council, and as a Graduate Student with the University of Sydney and CSIRO Astronomy and Space Science.

David Kaplan receives funding from the National Science Foundation.

Tara Murphy receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. We’ve used a new technique to discover the brightest radio pulsar outside our own galaxy – https://theconversation.com/weve-used-a-new-technique-to-discover-the-brightest-radio-pulsar-outside-our-own-galaxy-180508

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Harris Rimmer, Professor and Director of the Policy Innovation Hub, Griffith Business School, Griffith University

Clive Palmer has had a tough run leading up to the 2022 election campaign.
He faced COVID-19 without the protection of vaccination in March, tripped at his National Press Club speech and reported being knocked unconscious for about 20 seconds when he fell during a rehearsal for his United Australia Party (UAP) campaign launch in April.

Palmer, a dedicated litigant, has also suffered some recent set-backs in the court room.

As it contests the 2022 federal election, is the UAP also on a downward trajectory or will it tap into populist sentiment reacting against vaccine mandates and climate change?

UAP’s influence since 2013

In the first federal election in 2013, Palmer’s share of the primary vote (as the Palmer United Party) was 5.49% nationally and about 11% in Queensland. This was enough to win a single seat in the lower house and three in the Senate.

There was no UAP federal campaign in 2016 due to Palmer stepping back to address the collapse of his Queensland Nickel company. But in 2019, he ran candidates in all lower house seats, winning a total of 3.4% of the national vote. The UAP was well short of the quota to land a Senate spot, even in Queensland.

Nevertheless, the 2019 House of Representatives election saw a record vote of about 25% for minor parties overall, so preferences decided a record number of seats. This means minor parties deserve our serious attention in the 2022 election.

ABC election analyst Antony Green has noted while UAP’s preference flows didn’t significantly affect any results in 2019, its “anti-Labor message and broadcast weight of Clive Palmer’s political advertising” did have an impact.

2022 challenges

The UAP is fielding 22 Senate candidates, including Palmer, and running candidates in every lower house seat. Palmer’s best chance of electoral success is in Queensland, where he is challenging Pauline Hanson, Campbell Newman and the Coalition’s Amanda Stoker for the final Queensland Senate spot.

Read more:
Populism and the federal election: what can we expect from Hanson, Palmer, Lambie and Katter?

Palmer is certainly throwing plenty of money at the campaign, with expectations he will spend A$60-70 million in the lead up to election day. This compares with the unprecedented $84 million he spent in 2019.

This includes huge yellow billboards around the country, (problematically) promising to cap mortgage rates.

But so far, this spend has not delivered a bounce in the polls, and in 2019 it failed to translate into seats.

Read more:
Clive Palmer’s promise to cap mortgage rates at 3% would make it much harder to get a home loan

The UAP share of the primary vote has only slightly increased despite the massive spend at the start of the campaign and the impact of the pandemic. The most recent Newspoll, conducted April 27-30, showed the UAP vote steady at 4%. This is after spending millions on advertising.

Key differences in 2022

The familiar UAP yellow and the big budget is back, but there are some key differences in 2022.

The first is policy. In 2019, the focus of UAP advertising was anti-Bill Shorten and anti-ALP sentiment.

But Palmer launched his 2022 campaign in Coolum, with the unexpected announcement the party would push for the enactment of a bill of rights to “save Australia”.

Other key UAP policies include maximum 3% interest on home loans, abolishing federal cabinet and bringing Australian super investments back from overseas. There is also a focus on opposing COVID measures, tapping into anger over restrictions and mandates. The focus on “freedom” may entice to voters after a difficult pandemic period for so many.

UAP damaged the ALP vote in 2019, but don’t expect the same thing this time. Palmer has pledged to put the Liberals, Labor and Greens last on how-to-vote cards, diffusing the impact on preferences.

Read more:
Why ‘freedom’ is not the only thing worth fighting for

A new leader

A second key difference in 2022 is new leader Craig Kelly (Palmer is now “chairman”). Former Liberal MP Kelly joined as UAP leader in August 2021, bringing his controversial positions on COVID, coal and climate change with him, as well as a significant following.

But will this help the UAP vote? Kelly has been rated as one of Australia’s “least likeable” politicians. In December 2021, a Resolve Political Monitor survey found only 9% of surveyed Australians had a positive view of Kelly. This was only slightly higher than Palmer, on 8%. Kelly faces a tough road to win his seat of Hughes in 2022 without Liberal Party endorsement against a wide field.

Kelly has also been permanently banned from Facebook for disinformation, limiting his ability to reach supporters.

Legal problems

Beyond the campaign, Palmer (who has listed “litigation” as a hobby) is pursuing and facing distracting court action.

He recently lost a case in the High Court against Western Australia on border closures and has been engulfed in defamation proceedings against WA Premier Mark McGowan.

Palmer is also facing two sets of criminal charges brought by ASIC. The first involves alleged breaches of takeover provisions in the acquisition of his Coolum resort and the second relates to allegations he improperly funded his successful 2013 election campaign.

The ASIC action is due to return to the Brisbane Supreme Court for a two-day hearing on May 31 and June 1. Apart from distracting from his election campaign, it could potentially land Palmer in jail – making the Senate result irrelevant.

What does Palmer actually want?

As political scientist John Wanna has noted, we still don’t really know why Palmer is spending all this time, energy and money on elections:

Is it for political influence or policy influence? To achieve a higher profile? Buying his way to power? To let the ‘established’ political elite know he remains a key player perhaps? Or more genuinely attempting to represent ordinary Australian values, and shift policy contours?

Palmer has displayed a long interest in politics but perhaps he enjoys the game of it all.

And amid ongoing disquiet over his huge election spending, perhaps his
ultimate legacy will be to prompt overdue reform of political advertising regulation.

Read more:
How did politicians and political parties get my mobile number? And how is that legal?

Susan Harris Rimmer receives funding from the Australian Research Council and ONI.

– ref. Clive Palmer, his money and his billboards are back. What does this mean for the 2022 federal election? – https://theconversation.com/clive-palmer-his-money-and-his-billboards-are-back-what-does-this-mean-for-the-2022-federal-election-182123

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jacinta Douglas, Professor of Acquired Brain Injury, La Trobe University

The federal government has been warning that the rising cost of the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) is unsustainable. More than a third of NDIS funding is spent on in-house support provided to 5% of NDIS participants with the highest needs.

Fresh data, released Friday, shows there are 3,435 people under 65 living in aged care, and each month another 44 enter. While there has been a 21% drop in younger people living in aged care, the decline is mostly due to people either dying (562 people) or remaining in aged care until they turn 65, and “ageing out” of the cohort. During 2021, only 30 younger people left aged care to live in Specialist Disability Accommodation (SDA).

Well-designed homes that foster more independent living and increase community connection can potentially reduce support costs and the need for younger people to live in aged care.

Our new research found specialist housing, that incorporates technology and communication tools, improves independence, health, well-being and community integration. New disability housing has enormous potential to improve the effectiveness of paid support and address housing and workforce issues.

Read more:
Labor vows to tackle the NDIS crisis – what’s needed is more autonomy for people with disability

Old homes, vulnerable residents

Adequate housing is recognised as a human right.

Up to two-thirds of disability housing in Australia is old stock that is not fit for purpose and does not meet current standards or foster independence.

Group homes are the main model of housing in Australia for people with disability. Up to six people with disability live together, but they have little or no say in where or with whom they live. They are often separated from the community with few opportunities to engage or belong.

Some group homes resemble “mini-institutions” where the structure of the residents’ daily life is determined by staff rosters, routines and priorities.

The current Royal Commission has found people with disability are vulnerable to neglect and abuse when they are segregated and only engage with paid workers. Independence is not fostered, and there is no drive to reduce paid support over time.

Housing that meets needs

In 2016, the NDIS began to address the shortage of contemporary disability housing in Australia by introducing Specialist Disability Accommodation (SDA payments. These are only for the 6% of NDIS participants with the most specific housing needs.

Disability housing is expected to boom with a A$12 billion hoped sector to deliver housing for over 28,000 NDIS participants.

The policy has seen a significant increase of new housing for people with disability. Of 2,399 new dwellings built, 50% were apartments integrated into mainstream developments. A further 1,033 apartments are under construction – mostly for single occupants, with a small number grouped together making delivering disability support more efficient.

Read more:
Workforce shortages are putting NDIS participants at risk. Here are 3 ways to attract more disability sector workers

Housing makes a difference

New research published by La Trobe University and the Summer Foundation supports these efforts.

We interviewed 15 people people with disability (neurological disorder or cerebral palsy) and complex needs before and six months to two years after they moved into specialist housing. We found designing with the tenant in mind leads to better outcomes.

Before moving into new SDA apartments, study participants lived in a range of housing including group homes, residential aged care, private rentals and with ageing parents.

After they moved they used an average of 2.4 hours less paid support per person per day.

After moving into her own apartment, Amy told us:

Moving in here has been the biggest change in my life since the onset of my disability. It’s been daunting but also shown me how independent I can be.

To date there has been a lack of evidence on the impact suitable housing has on NDIS participants. Without an evidence-based approach, government and housing providers may invest in housing stock that is not fit for purpose but will be with us for decades.

We estimate $1.1 billion would be saved each year in disability support costs if NDIS participants were living in suitable housing, because they would enjoy increased independence and more efficiently delivered support.

Challenges remain

Despite the thousands of accessible homes built so far, the SDA market is being thwarted by the poor administration of the SDA payments by the National Disability Insurance Agency (NDIA).

Some 63% of the anticipated 28,000 NDIS participants have SDA in their NDIS plans and mostly not at the level of support they’d need to move to new housing.

Bureaucratic delays within the NDIA remain the biggest barrier to a thriving SDA market and achieving the federal government’s Younger People in Residential Aged Care targets.

Potential tenants take months or years to navigate the process of requesting SDA and then appealing unfair decisions, the majority of which are overturned. Many NDIS participants give up as they lose hope along the way.

New specialist disability accommodation is part of the solution to a sustainable NDIS, not part of the problem. Our research confirms the NDIA should focus efforts on innovation and evidence-based solutions informed by the needs, preferences and outcomes for NDIS participants.

Read more:
‘It felt like a prison’ – too many young Australians are still stuck in nursing homes

Jacinta Douglas is affiliated with the Summer Foundation through her Professorial role within the La Trobe University, Living with Disability, Summer Foundation Research Partnership.

Di Winkler is the CEO of Summer Foundation and a director of Summer Housing (SDA Provider) which is a separate entity. Both organisations are not for profits. Di is not paid by Summer Housing. The Housing Hub is a social enterprise established but The Summer Foundation.

– ref. ‘It’s shown me how independent I can be’ – housing designed for people with disabilities reduces the help needed – https://theconversation.com/its-shown-me-how-independent-i-can-be-housing-designed-for-people-with-disabilities-reduces-the-help-needed-181793

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gareth Kindler, PhD Candidate, The University of Queensland

More than 1,800 Australian plants and animals are considered at-risk of extinction, and yet protecting threatened species is almost entirely absent from the current election campaign.

We’ve developed a web app, which launches today, that lets Australians learn which threatened plants and animals live in their federal electorate.

For example, we found the electorate with the most threatened species is Durack in Western Australia, held currently by the Liberal party’s Melissa Price. Some 61 threatened animals and 198 threatened plants live or used to live within its boundaries, such as the Numbat, Gouldian finch and the Western underground orchid.

Our goal is to help users engage with their elected representatives and put imperilled species on the political agenda this election and beyond. We urgently need to convince federal politicians to act, for they hold the keys to saving these species. So what can they do to help their plight?

Threatened species in your neighbourhood

Our new app, called Threatened Australians, uses federal government data to introduce you to the threatened species living in your neighbourhood.

By entering a post code, users can learn what the species looks like, where they can be found (in relation to their electorate), and what’s threatening them. Importantly, users can learn about their incumbent elected representative, and the democratic actions that work towards making a difference.

Read more:
Fail: our report card on the government’s handling of Australia’s extinction crisis

For example, entering the postcode 2060 – the seat of North Sydney, held currently by the Liberal Party’s Trent Zimmerman – tells us there are 23 threatened animals and 14 threatened plants that live or used to live there.

This includes the koala which, among many others, have seen devastating losses in their populations in recent decades due to habitat destruction.

We’ve also put together data dividing the number of threatened species that live or used to live across each party’s electorates, as shown in the chart below. Labor-held seats are home to 775 of the 1,800-plus threatened species, while Liberal-held seats have 1,168.

A seriously neglected issue

The good news is we know how to avert the extinction crisis. Innumerable reports and peer-reviewed studies have detailed why the crisis is occurring, including a major independent review of Australia’s environment laws which outlined the necessary federal reforms for changing this trajectory.

The bad news is these comprehensive reforms, like almost all the previous calls to action on the threatened species crisis, have been largely ignored.

Predictions show the situation will drastically worsen for threatened species over the next two decades if nothing changes.

Yet, environmental issues rarely play key roles in federal elections, despite the connection Australians share with the environment and our wildlife.

The health of the environment continually ranks among the top issues Australians care about, and nature tourists in Australia spend over $23 billion per year.

Read more:
Just ten MPs represent more than 600 threatened species in their electorates

So how can we address this mismatch of widespread public desire for environmental action yet political candidates are focused on other issues?

What can local MPs actually do about it?

For change to occur, communities must effectively persuade elected representatives to act. There are a few ways they can exercise their democratic powers to make a difference.

Federal MPs often champion and advocate important issues such as developing new hospitals, schools and car parks in their electorate. By speaking out and advocating for their electorate in parliament and with the media, they can garner the support, such as funding and reform, to deliver change for their electorate.

Local MPs can help protect threatened species by instigating and voting for improved policy.

Let’s say, for instance, legislation for approving a new mine was before parliament, and the development overlapped with the habitat of a threatened animal.
If protecting a certain plant or animal was on an MPs agenda thanks to the efforts of their community, it would help determine whether the MP votes for such legislation.

Read more:
Frozen sperm and assisted reproduction: time to pull out all stops to save the endangered koala

This has broader applications, too. Making the threatened species crisis a priority for an MP would determine the lengths they would go to for conservation in their electorate and Australia wide.

Threatened species desperately need the required funding alongside the appropriate policy and legislative reform. The current policies are responsible for the threats causing many species to go endangered in the first place.

Our app can help users engage with the current sitting MP in their electorate with the click of a button, as it helps users write an email to them. It’s time federal representatives were asked about their policies on threatened species and what they plan to do for them in their electoral backyards.

While climate change has, for decades, unfathomably been the subject of fierce debate in the Australian parliament, threatened species can be a cause of unity across the political divide.

We need an honest and urgent dialogue between local communities and their representatives about how to deal with the challenge these species face and what each prospective candidate intends to do about it.

Read more:
1.7 million foxes, 300 million native animals killed every year: now we know the damage foxes wreak

Gareth Kindler receives funding from a Research Training Program scholarship and has received funding from the Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science.

James Watson has received funding from the Australian Research Council and National Environmental Science Program. He serves on scientific committees for Bush Heritage Australia and BirdLife Australia and has a long-term scientific relationship with Wildlife Conservation Society.

Nick Kelly has received funding for other work from the Australian Research Council and the Queensland Department of Education.

– ref. Find out what threatened plants and animals live in your electorate (and what your MP can do about it) – https://theconversation.com/find-out-what-threatened-plants-and-animals-live-in-your-electorate-and-what-your-mp-can-do-about-it-182044

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Newman, Professor of Sustainability, Curtin University

When you think of an electric vehicle, chances are you’ll picture a car. But there’s a quiet revolution going on in transport. It turns out electrification can work wonders for almost all of our transport options, from electric bikes to motorbikes to buses to freight trains and even to tractors and heavy trucks. There will soon be no need to burn petrol and diesel in an internal combustion engine.

This matters, because electric transport will be vital in our efforts to stem climate change. If all cars on the road became powered by renewable electricity, we’d cut almost one-fifth of our emissions. We’d also be much better placed to weather spikes in oil prices linked to war, and enjoy cleaner air and quieter cities.

It’s promising news that electric vehicles are shaping up as an election issue at last, with Labor promising a national EV charging network at its campaign launch, and the Greens promising rebates of up to $15,000 for EV purchases, while the Liberal Party last year reversed its previous scepticism and launched a smaller charging network policy.

But this is only the beginning of what’s required. Right now, all the focus is on electric cars. We will need new policy settings to encourage the electrification of all our transport options. And that means getting electric mobility on the radar of our political parties.

Why electric and why now?

Electric vehicles have been around for more than 120 years. They accounted for a third of all cars on US roads in 1900, sought because they were clean and quiet. But their first dawn ended because of the high cost and weight of batteries, leaving internal combustion engines to rule the road.

So what changed? Two things: solar has become the cheapest form of power in human history, and lighter lithium-ion batteries have become vastly cheaper. These remarkable inventions have allowed electric vehicle manufacturers to become competitive. Cheap solar power funnels into the battery of the electric vehicle to provide running costs much lower than those of fossil fuel engines. The much simpler engines also mean vastly lower maintenance costs.

We’re also seeing major innovations brought across from electric public transport. Over the past two decades, there have been significant advances in smart technology in trains and trams, such as regenerative braking and sensors enabling active suspension. These breakthroughs have been taken up enthusiastically by electric vehicle manufacturers. All electric cars now have regenerative braking, which hugely increases energy efficiency, as well as smart sensors to aid steering, and active suspension, making the cars safer and the ride smoother.

We’re also seeing welcome cross-pollination in the form of trackless trams, which are upgraded buses that boast rail-like mobility. This is made possible based on technologies invented for high-speed rail.

In short, there’s no reason why solar and battery technology has to be limited to cars. All the world’s land-based internal combustion engine vehicles can now be replaced by electric equivalents.

Electric mobility is arriving

You’ll already have seen signs of the potential of electric mobility. E-scooters are popping up in major cities, giving people a way to make short trips quickly and cheaply. E-bikes are surging ahead, popular among commuters and families choosing one over a second car. Even this is just the start.

Around the world, electric micromobility (scooters, skateboards and bikes) is growing at over 17% per year and expected to quadruple current sales of US$50 billion by 2030.

Read more:
Revolutionary changes in transportation, from electric vehicles to ride sharing, could slow global warming – if they’re done right, IPCC says

Even without much government assistance, Australians are shifting rapidly to all types of electric vehicle. But for Australia to embrace electric transport as fully as we can, we need the right policy settings. Cars, scooters, motorbikes, trackless trams, buses, trucks, freight trains and farm vehicles can all be part of the transition to the cheapest and highest-quality mobility the world has yet seen.

The policies on offer to date suggest no party has figured out the radical upheaval electrification will bring. Labor’s emission reductions policy of a 43% cut by 2030 gives electric cars only a tiny role, cutting emissions by less than 1%, or four million tonnes out of a total of 448 million tonnes. There’s no mention of other electric modes of transport. Even the Greens have little serious policy analysis of the broader EV options. The Liberals have no mention at all.

We need comprehensive, broad electric vehicle policy

Given we’re still at the starting line, what’s the best first step? Perhaps the simplest would be to enable Infrastructure Australia to work with the states on creating strategic directions for each electric transport mode. The ACT already has a plan like this for its bus network as part of its shift to a zero-carbon future.

Here’s what good EV policies would consider:

• Electric micromobility: how to recharge and manage the explosion of electric scooters, skateboards and bikes with appropriate infrastructure, and how to enable the best public sharing systems

• Electric public transit: how to electrify all buses, passenger trains and mid-tier transit (light rail, rapid transit buses and trackless trams), and how to link net zero urban developments and charging facilities

• Electric trucks, freight trains and farm vehicles: how to create recharge highways and hubs in train stations, industrial precincts and standalone farm systems, and how to introduce these to the regions to enable net zero mining, agriculture and other processed products.

Read more:
As the world surges ahead on electric vehicle policy, the Morrison government’s new strategy leaves Australia idling in the garage

Each of these modes will also need the same targets, subsidies and regulations as electric cars do, to make possible a swift, clean transition away from petrol and diesel. If we focus only on electric cars, we could end up with cities still full of cars, even if they don’t pollute. By focusing on all transport modes, we will make our cities more equitable, safe and sustainable.

Peter Newman has been the IPCC Co-ordinating Lead Author for Transport over the past 3 years supported only in transport costs by the Federal Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources.

– ref. Beyond electric cars: how electrifying trucks, buses, tractors and scooters will help tackle climate change – https://theconversation.com/beyond-electric-cars-how-electrifying-trucks-buses-tractors-and-scooters-will-help-tackle-climate-change-182055

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hugh Saddler, Honorary Associate Professor, Centre for Climate Economics and Policy, Australian National University

“Power prices are going up”, shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers declared last week. But according to energy minister Angus Taylor, “No one’s household power prices have gone up.” So who is right?

With the cost of living at forefront of the election campaign, the competing claims of the government and opposition are over a report showing wholesale electricity prices in Australia’s National Electricity Market surged 67% in the first three months of 2022, and by 141% in the year to the end of March.

Neither Chalmers nor Taylor were technically incorrect in their statements, but each focused on the facts that suited their preferred narrative. So let’s consider the full context.

Increases in wholesale prices

The National Energy Market supplies electricity to about 89% of the Australian population. Though it’s called a national market, it does not include Western Australia, the Northern Territory or western Queensland.

The following graph shows the average wholesale price in the NEM since the first quarter of 2019. Prices in the first quarter of 2022 rose by $35 a megawatt hour (or 3.5 cents a kilowatt hour). This put wholesale prices at their highest level since the first half of 2019.

The next graph shows prices by state since the first quarter of 2020. The three southern states – South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania – had similar increases. Queensland, already with higher average prices, had a bigger increase. New South Wales was in-between.

The report sets out various factors contributing to these price increases. Higher demand for electricity than in the corresponding 2021 quarter was one factor. Most of the other factors, however, relate directly, or indirectly, to the differing mixes of generation in the National Electricity Market’s five state markets.

Share of renewables

The next graph, based on calculations using very detailed operational data, show renewables’ share of wholesale electricity generation by state for the first quarter of 2022. (These numbers exclude rooftop solar’s contribution to total generation.)

Tasmania led the way, with renewables supplying 100% of the wholesale market. Next came South Australia (69%), Victoria (28%), New South Wales (24%) and Queensland (12%).

This clearly shows a correlation between higher wholesale prices and higher reliance on coal-fired generation. In Queensland, coal-fired power stations still account for 70% electricity generation, compared with 66% in New South Wales and 63% in Victoria.

Read more:
4 ways to stop Australia’s surge in rooftop solar from destabilising electricity prices

In the first quarter, AEMO’s report notes there was “record low availability” from black-coal generators in New South Wales and Queensland – the lowest, in fact, “since at least 2002”. This was “due to increased outages (mostly unplanned)”. In other words, coal-fired generators broke down more.

A sudden, unplanned outage will cause the wholesale price to shoot up dramatically. Even though such events are usually short-lived, the prices reached are high enough to materially affect average quarterly prices.

Limited interconnectors between states

A second important factor is limited connection between the National Electricity Market’s five state-based markets.

Interconnector transmission lines allow generators in one state to bid to supply electricity in a neighbouring state. Victoria’s connectors with Tasmania and South Australia are why its prices aren’t more in line with New South Wales and Queensland.

But there aren’t enough connections to equalise wholesale prices across all states. In particular, AEMO’s report identifies the inadequate connection capacity between Victoria and New South Wales.

This is the main reason for such a price separation between the southern and northern states. Wind and solar farms in Victoria and South Australia simply can’t sell more to the higher-priced northern markets.

This is, of course, good for consumers in Victoria and South Australia, because the wind and solar generators must instead sell to their local state markets, driving down prices. But it’s not good for consumers elsewhere, or for the owners of those wind and solar generators.

AEMO says a further problem is insufficient transmission capacity within NSW itself. This means the market operator must sometimes intervene to instruct wind and solar generators in the state’s southwest to curtail output to avoid overloading local transmission lines, endangering system security. Reducing the supply from the lowest cost suppliers in the market will obviously push up average wholesale prices.

A third factor has affected black-coal generators in New South Wales and Queensland, which compete for coal with buyers overseas. (Victoria’s coal-fired generators use poorer quality brown coal, which isn’t exported.)

When international coal prices go up, as they have due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the cost of generating electricity for Australian consumers at these power stations also goes up. Only some coal stations are affected but the effect is large enough to push up the general wholesale price.

Renewable generators, by contrast, are unaffected by volatile international coal prices.

Read more:
War in Ukraine is changing energy geopolitics

What this means for household prices

Labor has promised to establish a public Rewiring the Nation Corporation to accelerate the construction of transmission lines connecting new renewable generators to major electricity markets.

However, Labor’s statements about power prices going up have blurred the distinction between wholesale and retail prices.

The price consumers pay for electricity is a commercial decision of the electricity retailer (with some regulatory constraints). It obviously includes the wholesale price the retailer pays to generators. But in 2021 the wholesale cost was just 35% of the average total price of residential electricity in the NEM.

Wholesale contracts between generators and retailers cover various periods and include various price change provisions, They do not directly mirror spot wholesale prices, which change every five minutes. Retail prices generally change only once a year.

If the increase of 3.5 cents/kWh in the wholesale cost component in the first quarter was passed on immediately and in full to consumers, it would mean a 13% increase in the average retail price.

That hasn’t happened yet, as Taylor correctly said.

However, unless wholesale prices fall dramatically over the next few weeks, they almost certainly will go up from the start of July.

Hugh Saddler does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Labor says power prices are going up. The Coalition says they aren’t. Who’s right? – https://theconversation.com/labor-says-power-prices-are-going-up-the-coalition-says-they-arent-whos-right-182234

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Terry Goldsworthy, Associate Professor in Criminal Justice and Criminology, Bond University

HBO’s new show Our Flag Means Death has brought the Golden Age of Piracy to life on TV, chronicling the life of the bumbling gentleman pirate, Stede Bonnet.

Season one mostly focuses on the fictional Stede’s momentous and oddly romantic meeting with the infamous Blackbeard, told through absurd comedy that softens and makes light of the brutality of real piracy.

Stede Bonnet in Our Flag Means Death is a hilarious and sympathetic figure – but who was the real Stede Bonnet from history and just how accurate is the series in depicting the life and times of “the gentleman pirate”?

What was the golden age of piracy?

Pirates have been around since ancient times and still exist today. Julius Caesar was captured by Cilician pirates in 75BC. He was ransomed and released and later returned and defeated the pirates and crucified them as punishment. Piracy still exists today with more than 100 attacks taking place in 2021.

The Golden Age of Piracy, in which Our Flag Means Death is set, is generally accepted to be the period from the start of the 18th century until around 1730.

It was in this period that there was a marked increase in the pirate attacks in the seas of the Indian ocean, and off the coasts of the Americas and Africa, due to a range of factors including a rise in quantities of valuable cargoes being shipped to Europe over vast ocean areas, a decrease in navies policing those waters, and corrupt and inefficient European colonial governments.

Who was Stede Bonnet?

The historical Stede Bonnet was a prosperous plantation owner in Barbados in the early 1700s. Also known as the “Gentleman Pirate”, Stede was described as:

A gentleman that has had the advantage of of a liberal education and being generally esteemed as a Man of Letters.

For reasons unknown, Bonnet in 1717 decided the life of a plantation owner was no longer for him and purchased a small ten-gun sailing vessel, called it the Revenge, and embarked on a career of piracy.

Bonnet immediately distinguished himself by hiring a crew and paying them a wage, something unheard of in the pirate world, where most relied on a share of the booty seized as payment.

Bonnet sailed around the American colonies and captured a number of ships off the Virginia Capes before heading back to the Bahamas. It was then that Bonnet had his fateful meeting with Edward Teach, who is infamously known to history as the villainous Blackbeard.

His relationship with Blackbeard

A news story of the day claimed that on the way to Nassau, Bonnet was involved in a fight with a Spanish man-of-war and his ship was damaged and Bonnet seriously wounded. But some authors discount this, as accounts of such a fight are not recorded in Spanish archives.

Recovering from his wounds, Bonnet ceded command of the Revenge to Blackbeard, who took the ship out raiding to Delaware Bay, where they plundered a number of ships. Authors have described accounts of Bonnet as essentially a passenger on his own ship, playing no role and dressed in a morning gown.

Bonnet and Blackbeard separated for a short time, only to link up again. By now Blackbeard had his own ship, Queen Anne’s Revenge. The wreck of this ship was located in coastal waters off North Carolina in 1996. Bonnet’s crew deserted him to serve under Blackbeard, who put one of his men in charge of the Revenge and kept Bonnet on the Queen Anne’s Revenge a virtual prisoner.

Bonnet was present when Blackbeard blockaded the port of Charles Town in 1718. After leaving Charles Town, Blackbeard and Bonnet travelled to Bath Town where they were granted a pardon by the governor of North Carolina.

Bonnet returned to find that Blackbeard had double-crossed him and dumped most of Bonnet’s crew, stripped the Revenge of supplies and sailed off with the loot.

While history has portrayed Blackbeard as bloodthirsty murderer, the character in this series is more nuanced and complex. More recently, researchers have questioned the murderous portrayal of Blackbeard and suggested he was a literate, well-educated man of social grace – which perhaps gives some credence to Taika Waititi’s portrayal of the pirate in Our Flag Means Death.

Back to pirating

Seeking revenge but unable to locate Blackbeard, Bonnet returned to his life of piracy. Bonnet hoped to preserve his pardon using an alias and changing the name of his ship. After capturing a number of ships, Bonnet sailed to Delaware Bay with the Revenge and two other ships.

Authorities learnt that Bonnet had moored in Cape Fear River and the governor of South Carolina sent a naval force. In the ensuing battle, both Bonnet and the naval forces sent to capture him ran aground and sat immobilised for hours, taking pot shots at each other while waiting for the tide to rise. With the rising of the tide, the naval force captured Bonnet and his crew.

Arrest and trial

Bonnet and his crew were taken to Charles Town. Bonnet, being a gentleman, was separated from his crew and with two of his officers was held in loose detention at the home of the town marshal. Some days later Bonnet escaped and went on the run for 12 days before being recaptured. This time he was imprisoned with his crew.

Bonnet was charged with two counts of piracy; he pleaded not guilty and conducted his own defence. He was found guilty by a jury and sentenced to death. Bonnet was hung in Charles Town on 10 December 1718.

As for the treacherous sea dog, Blackbeard, on November 22 1718 he met his own end when he was killed in a fight with naval forces. His head was taken as proof of his death, and displayed by the Virginia governor as a warning to other would-be pirates.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Gentleman pirates, shipwrecks and Stede Bonnet: what Our Flag Means Death gets right about the Golden Age of Piracy – https://theconversation.com/gentleman-pirates-shipwrecks-and-stede-bonnet-what-our-flag-means-death-gets-right-about-the-golden-age-of-piracy-181945

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Hazel, Senior Lecturer, School of Animal and Veterinary Science, University of Adelaide

Australia Post workers are suffering more dog attacks than before with 1,170 incidents so far this financial year — up 400 on the same time in 2021.

The delivery service says around five employees are attacked each work day, causing serious injuries and lasting emotional trauma.

What emergency steps should you take if you witness a dog attack? And what should you do if that dog is attacking you?

When dogs attack

While the news from Australia Post is distressing, it’s important to remember that the majority of the millions of dogs in Australia don’t bite. For the dogs that do attack, it’s usually because they are acting on fear or anxiety rather than aggression.

In the centuries since we first domesticated and trained dogs to be our pets and companions, we’ve shaped their natural behaviour so they can share our lives, homes and environment. But we can’t breed or train out all of a dog’s natural instincts: many will protect their space – and will escalate their response if they feel threatened.

We don’t have good national statistics on dog bites. The Australian Companion Animal Council has estimated more than 100,000 people in Australia are attacked by dogs each year, with around 12,000–14,000 of them requiring medical treatment for injuries, and around 10% of those hospitalised.

In the United Kingdom, dog attacks are increasing in adults rather than kids, though the reasons for this are unclear.

UK researchers have found 80% of occupational bites occurred during mail delivery, vet or kennel work, or caring for people who have dogs. In high-risk settings, specialist equipment like an air blaster might be used during an attack. But the general public (and posties) don’t have access to these.

Read more:
From wolf to chihuahua: new research reveals where the dingo sits on the evolutionary timeline of dogs

3 things to do if someone else is being attacked by a dog

Many people picture specific dog breeds as aggressive and more likely to attack, but this is an unhelpful stereotype. The truth is, any type of dog can bite. Here’s what to do:

1. keep yourself safe. If you intervene, you might get bitten
2. distract the dog (call out from a safe distance, beep your car horn, spray the animal with a hose if there’s one handy and it’s safe to do so)
3. call for emergency medical care if necessary.

There are also two important things to do after a dog attack:

1. provide medical attention. Every dog bite will need medical attention, to treat injury and to prevent infection
2. report it. Most local councils also require every dog attack be reported. Local authorities may collect evidence, interview witnesses and follow up. They might impose a dangerous dog order or tell the owner to install or repair fencing. Roaming dogs can also be reported and picked up by authorities.

What if the dog is attacking you?

If you see a dog that looks agitated and is running towards you, the most important thing is not to react or scream. Stay calm and avoid eye contact. Move away (out of their space) as calmly and slowly as possible.

If a dog is attacking in full flight, best to stay upright, remain still and call for help. If you have time, placing something between you and them (a clipboard, jacket, wheelie bin) can help. If you end up on the ground, curl up into a ball as tightly as possible.

Most dogs have good “bite inhibition”. If a dog is really scared and an approaching person doesn’t recognise the signs, they will likely bite once as a warning or reaction, but they won’t necessarily keep biting if you can move away.

Read more:
A strong-eyed style: what makes Australian muster dogs unique

Why do they hate posties so much?

Dogs don’t hate posties specifically, but many dogs love to chase. Some may chase postal workers on bikes then get overexcited and bite by accident in an overstimulated state. Other dogs may not appreciate strangers entering their space unannounced, and the unpredictability of visits can make things tough too.

Posties might consider taking dog treats on their rounds and throw them each time they visit properties with dogs. This can create a positive association with their daily visit (or sometimes, throwing a handful of treats to distract an approaching dog can help buy time to back away). They could also carry a map and make note of properties with problem dogs, so they can be prepared or owners notified to make arrangements for delivery days.

Many attacks are preventable. In the UK, where postal workers often get bitten when they reach into private mailboxes that are open on the other side, they sometimes use long pegs to push through mail. In the United States, paw stickers have been used to warn postal workers of a dog in the area.

Australia Post recommends keeping your dog in a separate room, on a leash or distracting them with a toy or treat when the postie arrives. They suggest not letting children answer the door in case dogs push their way past. If dogs are outside, they should be kept securely away from the letterbox.

Susan Hazel is affiliated with the Dog & Cat Management Board of South Australia and the RSPCA South Australia.

Petra Edwards is employed by the RSPCA South Australia.

– ref. What to do in a dog attack – and why they hate posties so much – https://theconversation.com/what-to-do-in-a-dog-attack-and-why-they-hate-posties-so-much-182289

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katharine Kemp, Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Law & Justice, UNSW, UNSW Sydney

Consumers using online retail marketplaces such as eBay and Amazon “have little effective choice in the amount of data they share”, according to the latest report of the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission (ACCC) Digital Platform Services Inquiry.

Consumers may benefit from personalisation and recommendations in these marketplaces based on their data, but many are in the dark about how much personal information these companies collect and share for other purposes.

ACCC chair Gina Cass-Gottlieb said:

We believe consumers should be given more information about, and control over, how online marketplaces collect and use their data.

The report reiterates the ACCC’s earlier calls for amendments to the Australian Consumer Law to address unfair data terms and practices. It also points out that the government is considering proposals for major changes to privacy law.

However, none of these proposals is likely to come into effect in the near future. In the meantime, we should also consider whether practices such as obtaining information about users from third-party data brokers are fully compliant with existing privacy law.

Why did the ACCC examine online marketplaces?

The ACCC examined competition and consumer issues associated with “general online retail marketplaces” as part of its five-year Digital Platform Services Inquiry.

These marketplaces facilitate transactions between third-party sellers and consumers on a common platform. They do not include retailers that don’t operate marketplaces, such as Kmart, or platforms such as Gumtree that carry classified ads but don’t allow transactions.

The ACCC report focuses on the four largest online marketplaces in Australia: Amazon Australia, Catch, eBay Australia and Kogan. In 2020–21, these four carried sales totalling $8.4 billion.

According to the report, eBay has the largest sales of these companies. Amazon Australia is the second-largest and the fastest-growing, with an 87% increase in sales over the past two years.

The ACCC examined:

• the state of competition in the relevant markets
• issues facing sellers who depend on selling their products through these marketplaces
• consumer issues including concerns about personal information collection, use and sharing.

Consumers don’t want their data used for other purposes

The ACCC expressed concern that in online marketplaces, “the extent of data collection, use and disclosure … often does not align with consumer preferences”.

The Commission pointed to surveys about Australian consumer attitudes to privacy which indicate:

• 94% did not feel comfortable with how digital platforms including online marketplaces collect their personal information
• 92% agreed that companies should only collect information they need for providing their product or service
• 60% considered it very or somewhat unacceptable for their online behaviour to be monitored for targeted ads and offers.

Read more:
How one simple rule change could curb online retailers’ snooping on you

However, the four online marketplaces analysed:

• do not proactively present privacy terms to consumers “throughout the purchasing journey”
• may allow advertisers or other third parties to place tracking cookies on users’ devices
• do not clearly identify how consumers can opt out of cookies while still using the marketplace.

Some of the marketplaces also obtain extra data about individuals from third-party data brokers or advertisers.

The harms from increased tracking and profiling of consumers include decreased privacy; manipulation based on detailed profiling of traits and weaknesses; and discrimination or exclusion from opportunities.

Limited choices: you can’t just ‘walk out of a store’

Some might argue that consumers must not actually care that much about privacy if they keep using these companies, but the choice is not so simple.

The ACCC notes the relevant privacy terms are often spread across multiple web pages and offered on a “take it or leave it” basis.

The terms also use “bundled consents”. This means that agreeing to the company using your data to fill your order, for example, may be bundled together with agreeing for the company to use your data for its separate advertising business.

Further, as my research has shown, there is so little competition on privacy between these marketplaces that consumers can’t just find a better offer. The ACCC agrees:

While consumers in Australia can choose between a number of online marketplaces, the common approaches and practices of the major online marketplaces to data collection and use mean that consumers have little effective choice in the amount of data they share.

Consumers also seem unable to require these companies to delete their data. The situation is quite different from conventional retail interactions where a consumer can select “unsubscribe” or walk out of a store.

Does our privacy law currently permit all these practices?

The ACCC has reiterated its earlier calls to amend the Australian Consumer Law to prohibit unfair practices and make unfair contract terms illegal. (At present unfair contract terms are just void, or unenforceable.)

The report also points out that the government is considering proposals for major changes to privacy law, but these changes are uncertain and may take more than a year to come into effect.

Read more:
A new proposed privacy code promises tough rules and $10 million penalties for tech giants

In the meantime, we should look more closely at the practices of these marketplaces under current privacy law.

For example, under the federal Privacy Act the four marketplaces

must collect personal information about an individual only from the individual unless … it is unreasonable or impracticable to do so.

However, some online marketplaces say they collect information about individual consumers’ interests and demographics from “data providers” and other third parties.

We don’t know the full detail of what’s collected, but demographic information might include our age range, income, or family details.

How is it “unreasonable or impracticable” to obtain information about our demographics and interests directly from us? Consumers could ask online marketplaces this question, and complain to the Office of the Australian Information Commissioner if there is no reasonable answer.

Katharine Kemp receives funding from The Allens Hub for Technology, Law and Innovation. She is a Member of the Advisory Board of the Future of Finance Initiative in India, and the Australian Privacy Foundation.

– ref. ACCC says consumers need more choices about what online marketplaces are doing with their data – https://theconversation.com/accc-says-consumers-need-more-choices-about-what-online-marketplaces-are-doing-with-their-data-182134

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Crowley, Adjunct Associate Professor, Public and Environmental Policy, University of Tasmania

A major poll published yesterday suggests the Greens are set to grow as a political force at this month’s election, showing its primary vote has risen markedly from 10% in 2019 to a current high of 15%.

Recent surveys show large numbers of voters see climate change as their biggest concern, and the jump in Greens’ support indicates the issue is determining how many people plan to vote.

The party goes to next month’s election armed with ambitious, big-spending policies. It strongly fancies its chances in at least five lower house seats and hopes to pick up three more Senate seats.

But for the Greens, the path to real power lies in a hung parliament where they can seek to extract policy concessions from a minority Labor government. The Greens and Labor have a mixed record of working together, but can learn from past experience. So let’s take a closer look at what we can expect from the Greens in a hung parliament.

Seeking the balance of power

Opinion polls earlier in the election campaign put the Greens at between 11% and 13% of the primary vote.

In 2010 they polled 11.76% in the House of Representatives (giving them a shared balance of power) and 13% in the Senate (delivering the balance of power outright).

The 2010 election led to the first federal hung Parliament in 70 years, although these are common outcomes in the states and territories. Labor Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s deal with the Greens in 2010 to form a minority government ended acrimoniously.

Labor leader Anthony Albanese has ruled out such a power-sharing deal this time around, as Bill Shorten did ahead of the 2016 and 2019 elections.

But if a hung parliament does eventuate and Labor refuses a power-sharing deal, it would be left clinging to power, vote by vote. In any case, Labor would have to negotiate support from the Greens and independents in order to govern – and offer a swag of policy concessions in return.

The Greens are also a chance of recapturing the balance of power in the Senate, which means their influence after May 21 may still be significant.

Read more:
Labor’s lead steady in Newspoll and gains in Resolve; how the polls moved during past campaigns

The ability to influence policy is key to the legitimacy and relevance of minor parties such as the Greens.

Under the Gillard Labor minority government, the Greens had significant policy success. They pushed Labor towards a carbon pricing policy that briefly turned around energy emissions growth, and a dental health package for children and low-income earners.

These signature policies were short-lived though; abolished by Abbott Coalition government after the 2013 election.

Some Green initiatives survived, however, such as the Parliamentary Budget Office, the Clean Energy Finance Corporation and the Australian Renewable Energy Agency.

Relations between Labor and the Greens eventually failed once the Gillard government adopted a watered-down mining tax. The Greens also decried Labor’s failure to make headway on environmental protection, national heritage, the Great Barrier Reef, Tasmania’s wilderness, the Murray Darling Basin and more.

So what policy demands can we expect from the Greens this time around?

A big policy agenda

In the case of a hung parliament, the Greens would demand a halt to all new coal, gas and oil projects for at least six months while they negotiate with Labor over climate policy. It would also push for a coal export levy to fund disaster recovery and clean export industries.

In their 2022 electoral platform, the Greens are again aiming high. Their headline policies include:

• a treaty with First Nations people
• free dental and mental healthcare
• wiping out student debt
• building one million publicly owned, affordable, sustainable homes
• overhauling labour laws to outlaw insecure work and increase wages.

Should the Greens hold the balance of power, they would likely also call for the next government to urgently release the delayed State of the Environment report, and to implement the recommendations from a 2020 independent review into Australia’s environment laws.

The party’s environment platform offers the usual extensive suite of policies and detailed measures to address the extinction crisis, green jobs, clean water, caring for country, sustainable agriculture, preventing animal cruelty, eliminating single-use plastics and improving ocean health.

As well as phasing out coal, oil and gas, the Green’s climate policy includes:

• banning political donations from fossil fuel companies
• installing cleaner, cheaper power for homes and business
• assisting workers in the clean energy transition
• funding climate resilience
• supporting cleaner cars, electricity and manufacturing.

Their energy plan allocates A$17.1 billion to electrify Australian homes, $14.8 billion electrifying small businesses and $12.6 billion installing small-scale solar batteries.

Read more:
If it needs it, Australia can draw on significant experience of minority government

Where next for the Greens?

If the polls are right, the Greens are a chance to reclaim the balance of power in the Senate and to share the balance of power in the House of Representatives.

In the longer term, the Greens aspire to replace Labor in government. But as experience in Tasmania and the ACT shows, Greens ministers can successfully serve in Labor cabinets.

For now, the Greens are nipping at the heels of the major parties. The party’s best prospects for realising its policies in national government lie in reconciling with Labor and learning to work in coalition.

Read more:
Albanese pledges to make gender pay equity a Fair Work Act objective

Kate Crowley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Polls show a jump in the Greens vote – but its real path to power lies in reconciling with Labor – https://theconversation.com/polls-show-a-jump-in-the-greens-vote-but-its-real-path-to-power-lies-in-reconciling-with-labor-181705

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Oliver Frank, Senior Research Fellow, Discipline of General Practice, and Specialist General Practitioner, University of Adelaide

When you go to your usual GP, you probably sit down, tell her your health-care needs or problems, and she advises and discusses with you how you can address them.

But there’s one important aspect missing in many visits to the GP: what you can do to prevent ill health in the future.

Preventive care includes advice, such as to stop smoking or about forthcoming perimenopause; physical examination such as measuring blood pressure, waist circumference or eyesight; tests for high cholesterol or screening mammography (breast X-ray); and treatments such as vaccinations.

We’ve been researching ways GPs and people attending them can be better reminded of relevant preventive health care, and have developed a solution that might help.

What are patients missing?

Just to give a few examples, only about half or fewer eligible Australians currently participate in the national programs to screen for cancer of the bowel, breast or cervix.

Osteoporosis is a condition in which bones become weak and can break easily. It is a major health program that is common in older people, with osteoporotic fractures reducing quality and length of life. Despite this, only about 10% of people at higher risk for osteoporosis are screened for it by their GP.

Invasive pneumococcal infection is serious and sometimes fatal. Our research has found 30% of people under the age of 65 years have chronic health conditions that put them at higher risk of pneumococcal infection, but only 24% of them report having received pneumococcal vaccine.

Why isn’t all recommended preventive care routinely offered?

National guidelines for prevention advise how often different activities should be performed for people of different ages and sexes, making the date on which each relevant preventive activity is due for each person predictable. In view of this, why don’t most people know which preventive activities are recommended for them and when each is due next to be performed? There are a few reasons for this.

Read more:
Focus on prevention to control the growing health budget

One reason is that the guidelines for the prevention, early detection or care of some conditions are complex.

Second, which preventive measures are recommended changes as people age and as their personal and family health history changes.

Preventive care is more likely to be offered in longer consultations, but the Medicare Benefits Schedule provides lower subsidies per minute for longer consultations than for shorter ones. This increases patients’ out-of-pocket costs for longer consultations and discourages patients from seeking, and GPs from offering, longer consultations.

Currently, there is no one place each person can view a list of all of the preventive health measures recommended for them, when each of them was done, and when they are next due.

Our research developed a solution

Most of the electronic clinical record systems used by Australian GPs automatically generate onscreen reminders to GPs about preventive activities. Those reminders cover only a limited range of preventive activities, are not very informative, and GPs can ignore them repeatedly without any accountability.

Most importantly, the reminders are not communicated automatically to the patient. To address this, we are studying the effects of automatically sending SMS messages to patients about preventive activities that are due to be performed.

The messages are sent after the person has made an appointment to see their GP. They tell the person what care is due and advise the person to discuss this in their forthcoming consultation. These reminders empower their recipients and enable them to receive the recommended care with a minimum of additional time, effort or cost.

Our earlier studies of providing information and reminders on paper before consultations found people welcomed receiving this information and acted on them.

Read more:
How physical activity in Australian schools can help prevent depression in young people

GPs’ clinical software systems should be improved to allow and encourage each person to view a comprehensive display of their preventive care updates. Currently, the freely available Doctors Control Panel onscreen reminder software for GPs (used in our research program) comes closest to providing a comprehensive listing of preventive activities recommended for each person, and when they were, or are, due to be performed.

What can you do now?

At least annually, you should ask your usual GP about which preventive activities are recommended for you, when each was last performed with what result or finding, and when each is due to be performed next.

If you plan to do this when you are going to see your usual GP for some other reason, ask for a long appointment so your GP can find and give you this information.

This research has received grants from the RACGP Foundation and Pfizer’s Independent Grants. Oliver Frank has advised the owner of the Doctors Control Panel software on usability, he did not receive payment or any other benefit for this advisory.

– ref. People attending GPs aren’t getting all the preventive health care they need. Here’s what could help – https://theconversation.com/people-attending-gps-arent-getting-all-the-preventive-health-care-they-need-heres-what-could-help-181709

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachel Ong ViforJ, ARC Future Fellow & Professor of Economics, Curtin University

Each side is offering something for first homebuyers this election, but the nature of the support is quite different.

The Coalition’s Home Guarantee

The Coalition is promising to expand its Home Guarantee Scheme, also known as its First Home Loan Deposit Scheme. It’ll lift the number of places on offer from 10,000 to 35,000 per year, and reserve another 5,000 places for single parents.

As well, it will boost the highest purchase price the scheme can be used for. In Sydney it will climb from A$800,000 to $900,000; and in Melbourne from $700,000 to $800,000.

The scheme enables buyers with deposits as small as 5% (2% for single parents) to avoid paying the mortgage insurance that is normally required for deposits of less than 20%. The Commonwealth “guarantees” the other 15% to 18%.

Mortgage insurance can cost as much as $30,000 on a $600,000 mortgage.

The guarantee is not a cash payment or a deposit.

Labor’s Help to Buy

Labor’s scheme, announced on Sunday is called Help to Buy and owes something to work done by the Liberal Party’s Menzies Research Centre in 2003 for then Prime Minister John Howard.

Labor’s scheme will offer 10,000 homebuyers the opportunity to share ownership with the Commonwealth which will put in up to 40% of the purchase price for a new home, and up to 30% for an existing home.

Read more:
Older women often rent in poverty – shared home equity could help

As with the Coalition’s Home Guarantee Scheme, eligible homebuyers will avoid the need for lenders mortgage insurance. Under Help to Buy, eligible homebuyers would pay a 2% rather than a 5% deposit.

Labor’s scheme is targeted at lower middle earners on taxable incomes of up to $90,000 for singles and $120,000 for couples, whereas the Coalition’s is available for singles on incomes up to $125,000 and couples up to $200,000.

Shared ownership isn’t new

The United Kingdom has offered such a scheme for decades, as do state governments in Western Australia (Keystart), South Australia (HomeStart) and Victoria (Homebuyer).

The report commissioned by Howard in 2004 found shared ownership “as critical to the welfare of Australian families today as was the emergence of the mortgage market at the turn of the last century”.

A report produced by the Grattan Institute in 2022 found that while it might cost the government money in the short-term, it might save it money on rent assistance longer term if it got more Australians into home ownership.

Despite many attractive features, shared ownership has remained niche worldwide due to its complexities. In the UK, fewer than 1% of households use it.

But shared ownership is complicated

In Labor’s scheme, the Commonwealth wouldn’t charge the owner rent on the portion of the home that it owned, while the owner would be responsible for ongoing costs such as rates and other bills. When the home is eventually sold the Commonwealth will get its money back plus its share of the capital gain.

As in the United Kingdom, at any time the owner can “staircase”, buying more of their property from the Commonwealth, although if prices have risen since the initial purchase, the cost of buying further shares will have also risen.

Read more:
Solutions beyond supply to the housing affordability problem

If the homebuyer’s income exceeds the Help to Buy threshold for two consecutive years, they will be required to repay the government’s financial contribution in part or whole as their circumstances permit.

In other such schemes, owners face restrictions on their freedom to renovate and sub-let their properties. They can also pay more for their mortgages, as not all lenders offer their most competitive loans for such schemes.

Two very different schemes

Regardless of which party gets elected, the Home Guarantee scheme will continue (with more places under the Coalition).

While escaping the cost of mortgage insurance offers buyers a leg up the ladder, most may be close to being able to buy a house without it, meaning it might simply bring forward home purchases rather than assisting people unable to buy.

While the Home Guarantee scheme focuses on the deposit hurdle, Labor’s Help to Buy scheme will help with both deposits and repayments.

Such schemes are complex.

Participants will need to read the fine print to ensure that they are prepared to accept the complications that might arise later.

Labor is also promising a National Housing Supply and Affordability Council and a Housing Australia Future Fund to build more social and affordable housing.

Read more:
$1 billion per year (or less) could halve rental housing stress

In truth, we can’t really hope to make a dent in the housing affordability crisis without hard policy choices such as reforming tax concessions that have pushed up house prices. Labor put forward such measures in 2019. It isn’t this time.

Rachel Ong ViforJ receives funding from the ARC and AHURI. She is the recipient of an ARC Future Fellowship (project FT200100422).

– ref. For first homebuyers, it’s Labor’s Help to Buy versus the Coalition’s New Home Guarantee. Which is better? – https://theconversation.com/for-first-homebuyers-its-labors-help-to-buy-versus-the-coalitions-new-home-guarantee-which-is-better-182276

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jo Caust, Associate Professor and Principal Fellow (Hon), School of Culture and Communication, The University of Melbourne

While artists struggle to get noticed in the Australian political arena, particularly in the lead up to an election, other nations take their artists more seriously – even seeing them as critical to a successful and vibrant community.

When I talked to artists during the pandemic, it became evident they needed four conditions in place to be able to practice successfully as artists: a regular income, a place to do their work, capacity to do their work and validation of their work.

Without these conditions, productivity and mental health suffer.

The Republic of Ireland has recently instituted a new scheme to provide three-year support for up to 2,000 individual artists, piloting a form of universal basic income.

Artists will be expected to meet at least two out of three qualifying terms to apply for the scheme: have earned an income from the arts, have an existing body of work and/or be members of a recognised arts body, such as a trade union.

Successful artists and creative workers will be given a weekly income of €325 (A$479), and be able to earn additional money without this basic income being affected.

The Irish Minister for the Arts Catherine Martin hopes this first model can be broadened to include all practising Irish artists in the future.

She sees it as a simple and economic method to protect artists from precarious existences while benefiting the community as whole.

Read more:
Could the idea of a universal basic income work in Australia?

International support for artists

The Irish scheme for a universal basic income for artists isn’t the only model.

In the US, several states and private foundations have developed schemes to provide direct support to artists as an outcome of the pandemic.

In May 2021, the City of New York paid 3,000 artists no-strings-attached grants of US$5,000 (A$7,080). Additional grants were provided for public art works, exhibitions, workshops and showcase events.

In June 2021, the philanthropic Mellon Foundation announced a new program called Creatives Rebuild New York to provide 2,400 New York artists with a guaranteed monthly income of US$1,000 (A$1,415) for 18 months.

The program employed another 300 artists and creative workers on an annual salary of US$65,000 (A$92,000) to work in collaboration with community organisations and local authorities for two years. They will also receive other benefits and dedicated time to work on their artistic practice. Both these programs were designed by artists.

The city of San Francisco provided US$1,000 per month for 130 local artists for six months from mid-2021. Thanks to philanthropic support from Twitter founder Jack Dorsey, the scheme expanded to support 180 artists for 18 months.

The city of St Paul in Minnesota, with a population of just over 300,000, has initiated a program to give 25 artists a guaranteed unrestricted income of US$500 (A$708) per month for a period of 18 months.

Closer to home, the House of the Arts (HOTA) on the Gold Coast recognised the economic dilemma of local artists during the pandemic.

In 2021, they employed four artists to work three days a week for six months on their own creative projects at HOTA. They were given a regular salary, a studio to work in, and were invited to participate in the organisational planning of HOTA.

Could we recreate this in Australia?

In Australia, some artists were eligible for schemes like JobKeeper and JobSeeker during 2020 and into early 2021, which could provide a model for how to support artists with a basic income going forward.

But in 2020-21 the Australia Council only funded 584 individual artists, a drop of nearly 50% since 2012-13.

Ireland’s three-year pilot program for artists will cost the government around €25 million (A$37 million). With a population about a fifth of Australia’s, a similar scheme applied here using the same ratio could provide funding to 10,000 individual artists at a cost of A$185 million over three years.

This would be a drop in the ocean for the Australian federal budget, but it could be a game changer for the community, the arts and artists.

Read more:
Why arts and culture appear to be the big losers in this budget

A universal basic income provides a regular amount of money that allows the individual to live above the breadline. It can transform an individual’s life while having a positive impact on the whole of society.

Schemes that provide an ongoing income to individual artists – such as royalty schemes, lending rights and long-term leasing of artwork by government bodies and corporations – are all important, but the amounts received from them for the majority of artists are usually quite limited.

Just imagine if every Australian arts centre, library, school, university, hospital, local council and government department employed an artist in residence. The artist gets an income while the institution gets an extraordinary input of ideas and imagination that can transform their environment.

We need to stop patronising our artists by giving them tiny grants and making them go through endless hoops and form filling to gratefully receive them.

Artists are essential to our community. It is time to demonstrate – like Ireland and New York – the success of our artists reflects our healthy and vibrant nation, and pay them accordingly.

Jo Caust has previously received from the Australia Council. She is a member of NAVA and the Arts Industry Council (SA).

– ref. Australia should have a universal basic income for artists. Here’s what that could look like – https://theconversation.com/australia-should-have-a-universal-basic-income-for-artists-heres-what-that-could-look-like-182128

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

This week’s Newspoll, conducted April 27-30 from a sample of 1,538, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, unchanged since last week. Primary votes were 38% Labor (up one), 36% Coalition (steady), 11% Greens (steady), 5% One Nation (up two), 4% UAP (steady) and 6% for all Others (down three).

51% were dissatisfied with Scott Morrison’s performance (down three), and 44% were satisfied (up two), for a net approval of -7, up five points. Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved three points to -9. Morrison’s lead as better PM narrowed to 45-39 from 46-37.

56% thought it was time for a change of government, while 44% thought the Coalition deserved to be returned. Newspoll figures are from The Poll Bludger.

Last week I anticipated One Nation would increase its support, as polls previously expected One Nation to contest only the 59 of 151 House of Representatives seats they had in 2019, but they are actually contesting 149.

Read more:
Labor retains clear Newspoll lead and large Ipsos lead as record number of candidates nominate

With less than three weeks to go until the May 21 election, both Newspoll and Resolve continue to show Labor in a clear election-winning position.

The best news for the Coalition from these polls is the five-point increase in Morrison’s net approval in Newspoll to -7, despite the negative headlines last week owing to the ABS inflation report. If Morrison can improve his ratings further to about net zero by the election, the Coalition could be returned.

Resolve poll: 54-46 to Labor as Greens surge

A Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted April 26-30 from a sample of 1,408, gave Labor a 54-46 lead by both respondent and previous election preferences, a two-point gain for Labor by respondent preferences since last fortnight’s Resolve poll. This is the first time Resolve has given a two party vote.

Primary votes were 34% Labor (steady), 33% Coalition (down two), 15% Greens (up four), 5% One Nation (up one), 5% UAP (up one), 4% independents (down five) and 4% others (steady). 76% (up three) said they were committed to their current first preference, while 24% (down three) were not yet committed.

This is the first Resolve poll taken since nominations closed. Only independents that appear to be in contention for their seat are now being included in the readout, resulting in a crash for the independents figure.

51% thought Morrison was doing a bad job, and 42% a good job, for a net approval of -9, down five points. Albanese’s net approval was down one point to -11. Morrison led Albanese as preferred PM by 39-33 (38-30 last fortnight).

The Liberals and Morrison maintained a 42-27 lead over Labor and Albanese on economic management (43-23 last fortnight). But on keeping the cost of living low, Labor had a 34-28 lead (31-31 previously).

Other interesting polls

In the Ipsos issues monitor for April, cost of living was rated a top issue by 50% (up six since March and 18 since January), healthcare by 39% (steady and down nine) and the economy by 32% (steady and down four).

Labor led the Coalition by 35-27 with 7% Greens on handling cost of living. On healthcare, Labor led by 37-26 with 7% Greens, while the Coalition just led Labor 33-30 on the economy with 7% Greens.

The left-wing Australia Institute polled on Labor and Coalition messages, finding more people agreed with Labor messages than with Coalition ones. This poll was conducted April 19-22 from a sample of 1,002.

How the polls have moved during past election campaigns

I requested this graph from The Poll Bludger, which shows how polls have moved during the three-year period from one election to the next. These graphs go from the 1996-98 term to the 2013-16 term. Polls for the 2016-19 term can be seen at The Poll Bludger. The top graphs for each term are two party preferred and the bottom primary votes.

Except for 2019, the final polls were accurate for the other elections covered. In 1998, the Coalition won a House majority despite losing the two party vote by 51.0-49.0.

The Coalition was the government from 1996-2007, Labor from 2007-2013 and the Coalition from 2013 until the present. Perhaps due to the Mark Latham factor, there was sharp late movement to the Coalition government in 2004, and to a lesser extent in 2007.

However, there was sharp late movement to Labor in 2001 as the Coalition’s September 11 bounce wore off. And in 2013, the movement was to the Coalition opposition as Kevin Rudd’s second honeymoon as PM wore off quickly.

In other cases, the major poll movements occurred before the election campaign, and the campaign itself had little impact. There wasn’t much gain for the Coalition in the 2019 campaign polls; the final polls were wrong.

Read more:
As the election campaign begins, what do the polls say, and can we trust them this time?

Inflation up 2.1% in March quarter

The ABS reported March 27 that inflation increased 2.1% in the March quarter, for a 5.1% rate in the 12 months to March, the highest since 2001. Core inflation increased 1.4% in March for a 3.7% annual rate, the highest since 2009.

The 2001 inflation increase was due to the introduction of the GST. We have to go back to 1995 for an equal inflation rate that was not affected by the GST.

The high inflation will put pressure on the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates Tuesday. Inflation is likely a key reason for Labor’s poll lead this year, as voters hate price rises on food and petrol.

Last week’s Morgan poll: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

A Morgan poll, conducted April 18-24 from a sample of 1,393, gave Labor a 54.5-45.5 lead, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week’s poll. Primary votes were 35.5% Coalition (steady), 35% Labor (steady), 12% Greens (down two), 4.5% One Nation (steady), 1.5% UAP (steady), 8% independents (up 1.5) and 3.5% others (up 0.5).

Seat polls: Parramatta and Wentworth

The Poll Bludger reported last Thursday that Redbridge polls for Equality Australia in the NSW seats of Parramatta and Wentworth gave Labor a 55-45 lead in Parramatta (53.5-46.5 to Labor in 2019), and independent Allegra Spender a 53-47 lead in Wentworth over Liberal Dave Sharma.

LGBTIQ+ equality and transgender participation in women’s sport were ranked dead last in both seats as “vote determining issues”. These polls were taken April 19-21 from samples of 800-900 in each seat.

SA upper house final result

Labor won 27 of the 47 lower house seats at the March 19 South Australian election. Preferences for the upper house were distributed electronically April 27. ABC election analyst Antony Green reported that Labor won five of the 11 seats up at this election, the Liberals four, the Greens one and One Nation one.

At the 2018 election, Labor won four of the 11 seats, the Liberals four, SA-Best two and the Greens one. Combined, Labor now holds nine of the 22 seats, the Liberals eight, the Greens two, SA-Best two and One Nation one.

Labor will not be able to pass legislation opposed by the Liberals with the Greens alone, but will also need support from either SA-Best or One Nation.

A quota was one-twelfth of the vote or 8.3%. Final primary votes gave Labor 4.44 quotas, the Liberals 4.13, the Greens 1.08, One Nation 0.51, the Liberal Democrats 0.40, Family First 0.37, Legalise Cannabis 0.25 and Animal Justice 0.18.

Four Labor, four Liberals and one Green were immediately elected. After preferences, One Nation had 0.64 quotas, Labor’s fifth candidate 0.62 and Family First 0.53, with the rest exhausting. Labor won the final seat by 0.09 quotas, with Family First overtaking the Liberal Democrats on preferences.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Labor’s lead steady in Newspoll and gains in Resolve; how the polls moved during past campaigns – https://theconversation.com/labors-lead-steady-in-newspoll-and-gains-in-resolve-how-the-polls-moved-during-past-campaigns-181953

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lukas Wesemann, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, The University of Melbourne

Infectious diseases such as malaria remain a leading cause of death in many regions. This is partly because people there don’t have access to medical diagnostic tools that can detect these diseases (along with a range of non-infectious diseases) at an early stage, when there is more scope for treatment.

It’s a challenge scientists have risen to, with a goal to democratise health care for economically disadvantaged people the world over.

My colleagues and I have developed a new method for the investigation of biological cells which is small enough to fit into a smartphone lens.

While we have so far only tested it in the lab, we hope in the future this nanotechnology could enable disease detection in real-world medical settings using just a mobile device. We hope our work can eventually help save millions of lives.

Read more:
World’s first mass malaria vaccine rollout could prevent thousands of children dying

How to investigate a biological cell

Being able to investigate biological cells through optical microscopes is a fundamental part of medical diagnostics.

This is because specific changes in cells that can be observed under a microscope are often indicative of diseases. In the case of malaria, for example, the gold-standard method of detection involves using microscope images to identify specific changes in a patient’s red blood cells.

But biological cells are good at hiding. Many of their internal features are practically transparent and almost invisible to conventional microscopes. To make these features visible, we need to apply tricks.

One way is to introduce some sort of chemical staining, which adds contrast to the transparent features of cells.

Other approaches use a process called “phase imaging”. Phase imaging exploits the fact that light, which has passed through the cell, contains information about the transparent parts of the cell – and makes this information visible to the human eye.

Conventional phase-imaging methods rely on a range of bulky components such as prisms and interference setups, which cost thousands of dollars. Also, expensive and bulky equipment can’t be easily made available in remote regions and economically disadvantaged countries.

Enter nanotechnology

A major scientific effort is currently directed towards leveraging nanotechnology to replace traditional large optical components.

This is being done by creating nanometer-thick devices with the potential for low-cost mass production. These devices could be integrated into mobile devices, such as smartphone cameras, in the future.

In the specific case of phase imaging, scientists have previously only been able to develop systems that:

• are reliant on time-consuming computational post processing, which makes the process more complex, and doesn’t allow for real-time imaging

• still use mechanically moving or rotating parts. Because of the space requirements of these parts, they are incompatible with completely flat optical components and ultra-compact integration.

We have developed a device that can perform instantaneous phase-imaging without these limitations. Our solution is only a few hundred nanometers thick, and could be integrated into camera lenses, in the form of a flat film on top of the lens.

How we did it

We inscribed a nanostructure into a very thin film (less than 200 nanometres thick) which enables phase imaging using an effect sometimes referred to as “optical spin-orbit coupling”.

The principle of operation is simple. A transparent object, such as a biological cell, is placed on top of the device. Light is shone through the cell and the previously invisible structure of the cell becomes visible on the other side.

In our recent publication in ACS Photonics, we detail how we successfully demonstrated the use of this method in a laboratory environment, with artificially generated transparent objects. The objects were only a few micrometres in size, and therefore comparable to biological cells.

Since this method enables phase imaging, but does not deal with the magnification of small objects such as cells, it currently still requires bulky lenses to provide magnification. However, we are confident in the future our device could be integrated with flat lenses, emerging from other advances in nanotechnology.

Where could it lead us?

A challenge with the current device prototype is the fabrication cost of approximately A$1,000. We used several costly nanofabrication methods that are also used for the fabrication of computer chips.

That said, by leveraging the economies of scale associated with chip production, we believe we may achieve the rapid and low-cost production of this device within the next few years.

So far we’ve only done this work in the lab. Seeing the technology become available in medical mobile devices will require collaboration with engineers and medical scientists who specialise in the development of such tools.

Our long-term vision for the technology is to allow mobile devices to investigate biological specimens in a way that hasn’t yet been possible.

Apart from allowing remote medical diagnostics, it could also provide at-home disease detection, wherein a patient could obtain their own specimen through saliva, or a pinprick of blood, and send the image to a laboratory anywhere in the world.

Read more:
People in Africa live longer. But their health is poor in those extra years

Lukas Wesemann receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. We’ve created a device that could allow instant disease diagnosis – while fitting inside your phone lens – https://theconversation.com/weve-created-a-device-that-could-allow-instant-disease-diagnosis-while-fitting-inside-your-phone-lens-181342

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Geoff Cockfield, Honorary Professor in Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development, University of Southern Queensland

While the Liberal and Labor parties each face several nail-biting contests, the Nationals have fewer immediate concerns in this federal election.

The party has good prospects of retaining most, if not all of their House of Representative seats and gaining an additional senator. Half of their 16 lower house seats have margins of more than 15% and the remainder are considered safe to very safe.

But this does not mean there will be post-election peace and leadership stability in the Nationals’ party room. Queensland senator Matt Canavan’s latest intervention on climate change also shows the Coalition’s internal “climate wars” are not over.

The central Queensland battleground

There are three seats in central Queensland that Labor has won at least once over the past 15 years, but they all swung heavily to the Liberal National Party in 2019.

Self-appointed party maverick George Christensen is retiring as the MP for Dawson to be a One Nation Senate candidate (but has been allocated an unwinnable position on that ticket). The new Nationals candidate, tomato farmer and Mayor of Whitsunday Council Andrew Willcox, has the right kind of profile and inherited margin of (14.6%) to hold the seat.

To the south, Capricornia was very marginal heading into the last election. But sitting MP Michelle Landry now has a buffer of 12.4% and should be able to hold on. Further south, Flynn has the lowest margin (8.7%) of all Nationals’ seats and Ken O’Dowd is retiring. But the new Nationals’ candidate, Colin Boyce, has a regional profile as a local and state politician.

There is an interesting contest in the very safe seat of Hinkler (14.5%), with Jack Dempsey, the mayor of Bundaberg Regional Council and former state minister in the Newman government, challenging Resources Minister Keith Pitt. Dempsey is running as an independent and now seems somewhat to the political left of Pitt.

In 2019, in all four of these seats, the Nationals candidates benefitted from strong preference flows from minor parties and independents, with One Nation especially enjoying significant support. Minor party votes and preference flows for this region are therefore something to watch on election night.

Threats and opportunities

A possible risk for the Nationals is the central Murray River seat of Nicholls in Victoria. Here the threat is from the Liberal candidate, teacher and farmer Steve Brooks, and perhaps even independent candidate business owner and Shepparton Councillor, Rob Priestly. This follows the retirement of National Party Whip Damien Drum. Each of the Coalition partners has held this seat, so this is shaping up as a three-cornered contest. Water policy is an issue in this region.

As is usual over the past 20 years or so, the Nationals are highly focussed, contesting only a handful of seats they do not hold. To the east of Nicholls, the Nationals would like to gain Indi, but they would need to beat the incumbent, independent Helen Haines, and the Liberals, who held this seat from 1977 to 2010.

Read more:
The budget hands out $21 billion for ‘regional Australia’, but a quarter of it is going to a single project in Queensland

They are nominally competitive in Hunter in NSW, with Labor’s Joel Fitzgibbon retiring and a margin of only 3%, due to a big swing against Labor in 2019. One Nation also polled well (20+%) in Hunter in 2019. The results in Hunter and the central Queensland seats may be some indication of whether pro-coal positioning – now broadened to more general energy issues – has resonance, given the Coalition is formally on the net-zero wagon.

Former local politician Bryce Macdonald is contesting the northern Queensland seat of Kennedy. But former National Bob Katter holds this on a 13.3% margin and is expected to retain the seat he has held since 1993.

The northern NSW seat of Richmond is a former Country Party stronghold, now nominally a marginal Labor seat but the “lifestyler” influx works against the Nationals in that region (which includes Byron Bay). There are also Nationals candidates for Durack (WA) and Barker (SA), but these will almost certainly be retained by the Liberals.

The Nationals and the Senate

This election may see the Nationals welcome its first Indigenous senator in Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, who is leading the Country Liberal Party’s (CLP) Senate ticket for the Northern Territory (assuming she chooses to sit with the Nationals in Canberra). She replaces Sam McMahon, who sat with the Nationals but then quit the CLP in January after internal disputes.

McMahon is now standing as a Liberal Democrat candidate. Former NSW Nationals director Ross Cadell is second on the joint party ticket for NSW and should be elected as an additional Nationals senator, despite some adverse publicity at the time of his preselection.

The campaign and beyond

As the campaign progresses, look for three things from the Nationals that reveal much about the operation of the Coalition.

The first is double messaging – one of unity with the Liberals at joint events and under the eye of national media, with much more “independent” messages on the wombat trail.

Read more:
The National Party used to be known for its leadership stability — what happened?

Especially watch for qualification of the net-zero commitment and leveraging of the Ukraine situation to support the continuation of coal mining. This has been particularly evident in comments by Canavan last week who said, “the net zero thing is all sort of dead anyway”. As he campaigns in Flynn, Boyce has also been talking about “wiggle room”.

Secondly, there will be limited invitations for Prime Minister Scott Morrison, or any senior Liberal, to join the Nationals on the campaign trail, with the notable exception of visits to Hunter. They will be distancing themselves from the Liberal brand – Morrison does not have the currency in the bush that he did at the last election, due to both general shifts in perception and particular instances around disaster management for fire and floods.

Thirdly, there will be a focus on the Nationals’ success in extracting concessions from the Liberals during the last term, notably an agreement for construction of two dams in Queensland. As the former Liberal MP, the late Bert Kelly used to say, “at each election I can feel a dam coming on”.

Finally, there are some interesting possibilities in regard to the post-election National Party. A minority Coalition government could see the Nationals having to be civil to some urban, teal independents, while an outright loss would open up leadership speculation.

In 2007, both Coalition leaders resigned after the election, though Warren Truss continued as leader after the narrow 2010 loss. Even a clear Coalition win will not necessarily secure Joyce’s leadership of the party. The intersecting divisions based on geography (north versus south), personalities and attitudes to climate change policy remain.

Joyce’s support has been bolstered by perceptions of him as standing up to the Liberals and being an effective retail politicians. Both those things will be tested during and after the campaign.

Geoff Cockfield does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The Nationals have good election prospects – but this does not guarantee Joyce’s leadership – https://theconversation.com/the-nationals-have-good-election-prospects-but-this-does-not-guarantee-joyces-leadership-181935