Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

On Saturday former Liberal minister Stuart Robert announced that he would soon retire from politics, setting up a byelection in his Queensland seat of Fadden.

There has been recent speculation that former Liberal PM Scott Morrison will also soon retire, which would mean a byelection in his New South Wales seat of Cook.

At the 2022 federal election, Robert won Fadden by a 60.6-39.4 margin over Labor, while Morrison won Cook by a 62.4-37.6 margin over Labor.

At the April 1 federal Aston byelection, Labor had a 6.4% swing in its favour to overturn a 52.8-47.2 Liberal margin at the 2022 election. Even if Labor achieved such a swing in its favour in Fadden and Cook, these seats would still be comfortable holds for the Liberals.

As they are very unlikely to win either Fadden or Cook at byelections, and could be embarrassed if there were a swing to the Liberals in either seat, I do not expect Labor to contest either byelection.

Pre-budget Essential poll: 53-41 to Labor including undecided

In last week’s pre-budget federal Essential poll, conducted in the days before May 2 from a sample of 1,130, Labor led by 53-41, an increase from 52-43 four weeks ago. Primary votes were 33% Labor (down one), 32% Coalition (up one), 14% Greens (steady), 5% One Nation (down one), 2% UAP (down one), 8% for all Others (down one) and 5% undecided (up one).

Despite the Coalition’s primary vote gain, Labor increased their two party lead. That suggests respondent preference flows to Labor were stronger than previously.

By 48-29, respondents supported raising the JobSeeker rate without a cost of living component in the question (this applied to half the sample). With the cost of living component, support was 50-29. An additional question from the April Resolve poll had support for increasing JobSeeker at 43-31.

Respondents were asked to rate Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton from 0 to 10, then ratings of 0-3 were counted as negative, 4-6 as neutral and 7-10 as positive. Albanese improved to a 41-24 positive rating from 40-27 in March, while Dutton dropped to 35-23 negative from 33-26.

Asked to name the treasurer, 33% correctly named Jim Chalmers. By 41-27, voters approved of his job performance. By 45-42, voters thought the budget could make a difference to the cost of living.

For health, education and social security, far more people thought government spending was too low rather than too high. For renewable energy projects and the NDIS, the difference between too low and too high was much reduced. For defence, more people thought spending too high than too low.

On taxes, far more thought personal taxes too high rather than too low, but too low and too high were equal for taxes on oil and gas producers and too low was far ahead for taxes on international corporations.

By 52-22, voters supported allowing New Zealanders who have lived in Australia for at least four years to become Australian citizens.

Morgan poll: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

In last week’s weekly federal Morgan poll, conducted April 24-30, Labor led by 53.5-46.5, a three-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 36% Labor, 35.5% Coalition, 13% Greens and 15.5% for all Others. I believe this is Labor’s worst result in a Morgan poll since late November 2022.

UK local elections were disappointing for Labour

I covered Thursday’s United Kingdom local government elections for The Poll Bludger. The Conservatives lost over 1,000 councillors, but Labour only had a nine-point margin over the Conservatives on the BBC’s Projected National Share.

While that’s Labour’s best performance since they were last in government nationally in 2010, it was much worse than current national polls that give Labour about a 17-point lead.

A United States debt default could occur as early as June 1 if no action is taken by Congress to lift the debt limit. The May 14 Turkish election and May 21 Greek election were also covered.

Incumbents easily re-elected at Tasmanian upper house elections

Every May two or three of Tasmania’s 15 upper house seats are up for election for six-year terms. On Saturday there were elections in Rumney, Murchison and Launceston. Independents in the latter two held with over 70% of the primary vote, while Labor’s Sarah Lovell won 50.5% of the primary in Rumney, with 26.5% for the Liberals and 16.6% for a conservative independent.

These results mean the status quo in the upper house is retained. Analyst Kevin Bonham said there are four Labor out of 15, four Liberals, three left-wing independents, one centrist independent and three conservative independents. The Liberals hold a majority in the lower house.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Easy Liberal wins likely in byelections in Robert’s and Morrison’s seats; support for rise in JobSeeker – https://theconversation.com/easy-liberal-wins-likely-in-byelections-in-roberts-and-morrisons-seats-support-for-rise-in-jobseeker-204798

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Real wages are expected to start growing slightly earlier and grow more strongly than previously forecast, according to the latest Treasury estimates.

Higher forecasts for wage growth and lower forecasts for inflation in 2023-24 than in the last budget are expected to bring forward the return for real wages growth to early 2024. In the October budget the return was put at mid 2024.

But unemployment is set to rise over the coming year.

Tuesday’s budget will forecast a growth in real wages of three quarters of a percentage point over the year to June 2024. This is an upgrade of half of a percentage point since the October budget.

The government says Treasury’s upgraded forecasts show a resilience in Australia’s labour market.

Unemployment is forecast to be 3.5% in the June quarter of this year increasing to 4.25% in the June quarter next year. This is an improvement of a quarter of a percentage point in both years since the October budget.

Unemployment is still expected to peak at 4.5% But this is now expected to be reached in 2024-25, compared to the expectation in the last budget that the peak would be in 2023-24.

The budget will forecast an additional 500,000 jobs will be created by the June quarter 2026. This is some 200,000 more than expected last October.

There has been speculation this financial year could see the budget in balance or even surplus. Treasurer Jim Chalmers would only say there would be a “substantial improvement in the near term”, but then the pressures on the budget would intensify.

Chalmers said the substantial improvement wasn’t just because of higher commodity prices. “It is also about lower unemployment and the beginning of wages growth”.

He said “getting wages growing again is central to our economic plan and our budget.

“We’re pleased to see signs that wages are moving,” he said.

“While this is a step in the right direction, we know that many Australians are still under the pump from cost-of-living pressures and rising interest rates. 

“A big part of tackling cost-of-living challenges is to help ensure ordinary Australian workers can earn enough to provide for their loved ones and get ahead.

“We also understand that securing real wages growth means getting inflation under control and our Energy Price Relief Plan is already helping with this.”

The budget “will be focused on targeted cost-of-living relief that doesn’t add to inflation, getting wages moving again and laying the foundations for a stronger and more resilient economy”.

Chalmers on Friday announced the budget would contain a program to tackle entrenched disadvantage in particular communities.

There would be a series of “place-based initiatives to try and shift the needle”.

Chalmers said there was concern that even with low unemployment there were pockets of disadvantage.

“We don’t want to see long-term unemployment. We don’t want to see entrenched intergenerational disadvantage.”

The $200 million program would back local leaders and organisations working on the difficult social and economic challenges in these areas.

“What that means is partnering with philanthropic organisations, it means investing in local community groups, it means doing something meaningful about impact investing. There are a number of different parts to our strategy.”

He said “to build the kind of economy that we want, we’ve got to align what we want to see in our economy with what we want to see in our society and in our communities.”

Australia, which generated remarkable opportunities for people in the broad, “needs to do a much better job of putting those opportunities within reach of more people”.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Budget shows real wages expected to start growing early next year and promises effort to ‘shift the needle’ in disadvantaged communities – https://theconversation.com/budget-shows-real-wages-expected-to-start-growing-early-next-year-and-promises-effort-to-shift-the-needle-in-disadvantaged-communities-205133

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kylie Turner, System Lead, Sustainable Economies, Climateworks Centre

The Albanese government has announced a Net Zero Authority to reduce national emissions and help industry, communities and workers manage the shift to a low-carbon economy.

The authority will be enshrined in law. It will seek to make Australia’s energy transition more coordinated, orderly and fair, and ensure regions and industry seize the huge economic opportunities on offer.

The authority is long overdue. Without such a body, Australia risked making the net-zero transition too slowly, or not at all.

Establishing this body is just the first step. So let’s take a look at how the Net Zero Authority can help Australia make the most of this once-in-a-generation economic transformation.

What will the Net Zero Authority do?

Australia has a national goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050, as part of the global effort to arrest climate change. Reaching the target requires a transformation of Australia’s economy away from emissions-intensive activities such as burning fossil fuels.

But without an organisation such as the Net Zero Authority, reaching this target was not assured, and workers and communities may have suffered along the way.

There have long been calls from industry, unions, green groups, academics and others for an overarching body to help co-ordinate the net-zero shift.

According to the federal government, the new authority will have three main jobs:

• support workers in emissions-intensive sectors to transition to new jobs and learn new skills

• coordinate programs and policies across government to help regions and communities attract and take advantage of new clean energy industries

• help investors and companies take up opportunities in the net-zero transformation.

In our view, these are the right areas for the authority’s focus.

The authority will work with federal agencies and state, territory and local governments, existing regional bodies, unions, industry, investors, First Nations groups and others.

There will be a process to inform what approaches the new authority will adopt. That’s where our recent research may help.

Over the past three years, the Climateworks Centre at Monash University has been working with industry to examine what’s needed for Australia’s energy transition to succeed. The collaboration is known as the Australian Industry Energy Transitions Initiative.

Our findings suggest the Net Zero Authority is on the right track, and offers specific ways forward on policy.

Read more:
We need a National Energy Transition Authority to help fossil fuel workers adjust

Co-ordination is key

As our report earlier this year stated, achieving the net-zero target needs coordinated action from finance, industry, community and all government departments at all levels. Without this, emissions reduction cannot happen at the pace and scale needed.

In June last year, for example, we released a study involving five industrial regions: the Pilbara and Kwinana in Western Australia, the Hunter and Illawarra in New South Wales and Gladstone in Queensland. Between them, they extract or make products such as iron ore, steel, aluminium, chemicals and liquified natural gas.

These regions are significant in terms of emissions and energy use, but also make a big contribution to the economy.

We found that while significant action is underway to decarbonise these regions, investment in both industry and the energy system must be significantly scaled up to achieve big emissions reductions and build the new industries needed.

The potential climate and investment gains are huge. We identified 70 million tonnes of emissions reduction in these five regions alone – representing an 88% reduction – if timely, effective action was taken. This would be equal to removing all emissions from cars and light commercial vehicles in Australia.

We found more work was required to coordinate the transition and help all stakeholders collaborate and attract investment. The Net Zero Authority promises to achieve this at a national level.

Let’s get together

The transformation to a decarbonised economy in Australia must take place at a dizzying scale. So how should it best be managed?

Our research suggests one approach: creating clusters of industrial businesses in one place, powered by 100% renewable energy.

We call these “renewable energy industrial precincts”. We identified 11 priority areas across Australia with the potential to host these precincts.

The precincts are a practical solution to scale up and accelerate climate solutions in carbon-intensive industries. It would allow businesses to share resources and knowledge, reduce costs and capitalise on Australia’s abundant renewable energy resources.

Under our proposal, businesses and governments would work towards a precinct-level net-zero target. The Net Zero Authority could manage this through national coordination.

A paper by Beyond Zero Emissions last year found such a precinct in Gladstone could unlock billions of dollars in new capital investment and create 11,000 new local jobs.

Read more:
The Morrison government is set to finally announce a 2050 net-zero commitment. Here’s a ‘to do’ list for each sector

Paying for the transition

As part of Friday’s announcement, the federal government allocated A$400 million from the Powering the Regions Fund to help existing and new industries through the economic shift.

This funding is welcome. Co-investment partnerships between federal agencies and state governments could offer even greater benefits.

Co-investment is a way for governments to combine multiple, smaller funding sources to achieve scale and efficiency. Precinct-based approaches work well for co-investment – for example, when state and federal governments chip in to pay for infrastructure used by several businesses, such as a rail line. A national authority can ensure such funding is coordinated.

Cross-government investment can also boost the confidence of private investors. Attracting private capital is important for reaching the scale of finance needed to fully decarbonise industry in key regional locations.

Seize the moment

Australia’s energy transition represents a moment of great opportunity. It’s time for us to create the future we want. But it means focusing on the needs of our workforce and industries and ensuring no-one gets left behind.

The Net Zero Authority is a crucial element for success. It will help ensure Australia’s industries, regions and communities are positioned to prosper in a decarbonising global economy.

Kylie Turner is an employee of Climateworks Centre which receives funding from philanthropy and project-specific financial support from a range of private and public entities including federal, state and local government and private sector organisations and international and local non-profit organisations.
Climateworks Centre works within Monash University’s Sustainable Development Institute.
Kylie Turner was most recently the program impact manager for the Australian Industry Energy Transitions Initiative funded by ARENA, philanthropy and industry participants, developing decarbonisation pathways to limit warming to 1.5℃.

Anna Skarbek is CEO of Climateworks Centre which receives funding from philanthropy and project-specific financial support from a range of private and public entities including federal, state and local government and private sector organisations and international and local non-profit organisations. Climateworks Centre works within Monash University’s Sustainable Development Institute. Anna is on the board of the Centre for New Energy Technologies, the Green Building Council of Australia, Sentient Impact Group and the Asia-Pacific Advisory Board of the Glasgow Financial Alliance on Net Zero. She is a member of the SEC Expert Advisory Panel, Grattan Institute’s energy program reference panel and the Blueprint Institute’s strategic advisory council.

– ref. Australia finally has a Net Zero Authority – here’s what should top its agenda – https://theconversation.com/australia-finally-has-a-net-zero-authority-heres-what-should-top-its-agenda-205029

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joanna Mendelssohn, Honorary (Senior Fellow) School of Culture and Communication University of Melbourne. Editor in Chief, Design and Art of Australia Online, The University of Melbourne

Julia Gutman’s Archibald-winning portrait of the singer Montaigne and Zaachariaha Fielding’s winning entry, Inma, in the Wynne Prize have more in common than their youth – although it is worth noting they both represent a new generation of artists, a changing of the guard at the Art Gallery of NSW’s annual series of art prizes.

These works – with Montaigne as the sitter and Fielding as the painter – capture the culture of music and performance that is at the cutting edge of their generation.

Montaigne, the performing name of singer Jessica Cerro, is a longtime friend of Gutman. Both share an intellectual rigour and a highly personalised approach to their art.

It is fair to say that, until recently, Gutman’s portrait would probably not have been hung, let alone won, the Archibald Prize.

For most of the last century or so, entries were dominated by portraits accurately described as “pale, male and stale”.

The change from men in suits to women in jeans, from academic portraits in oils to a maverick collage, can be charted in the Australian Cultural Data Engine’s handy Archibald Prize database, which shows the many changes over the years, from the nature of the sitters, the age and genders of the winners, increases of the prize money and even the palette used by the artists.

As J. F. Archibald’s will stipulated that the judges must be Trustees of the Art Gallery of NSW, it also shows the impact of particular trustees on deciding the winners.

When the President of Trustees David Gonski announced this year’s winners, he made a point of noting that particular consideration had been given to the views of the two artist trustees, Tony Albert and Caroline Rothwell. However, as the voting was unanimous, the trustees as a whole have endorsed this expansion of definitions of what a painting may be.

Read more:
‘I think Archie would be pleased’: 100 years of our most famous portrait prize and my almost 50 years watching it evolve

Self-contained and vulnerable

The portrait of Montaigne, Head in the sky, feet on the ground, consciously quotes Egon Schiele’s Seated Woman with Bent Knees, a deliberately awkward, edgy composition by the Austrian artist.

The pose shows the artist as both self-contained and vulnerable, hugging one knee to her body, her feet bare and open.

Gutman works in a combination of collage and paint, using materials either found or donated, roughly stitching the pieces of cloth together, happily revealing in the process. The modulated tones of the feet come from a combination of hessian and patches of gold cloth; a rainbow stripe helps define her top, a sleeve comes from the apron Gutman wore while teaching art to small children.

There is a delightful ambiguity in the landscape in which Montaigne is seated. The collage moves into paint, but the paint has been scratched so from a distance it looks as though it, too, is collage.

The painted trickery does not end here. Behind the figure a stitched in translucent panel reveals the struts supporting the painting’s stretcher: simultaneously revealing and concealing.

Including actual paint is a wise move as the Archibald has a history of discontented artists rushing off to the Supreme Court to contest the trustees decisions.

Painting the music

I first heard Montaigne’s distinctive soprano voice at a performance at the Black Dwarf theatre in 2020, just after it was announced she would represent Australia at the Eurovision song contest, only days before the world locked down for COVID – and Eurovision was postponed for a year.

The same world-changing event took Zaachariaha Fielding away from performing music in the duo Electric Fields, to making art in his home country of Mimili in the APY lands in remote South Australia.

Inma, which was awarded the Wynne Prize, is a visual celebration of the music he feels in the song and dance of this place of his childhood. Its limited palette emphasises the linear patterns and the music-like rhythm on the painted surface.

In his acceptance speech, which began with an attempt to have the waiting media throng respond to his song, Fielding paid tribute to the community arts workers of Mimili. He then led them in the song that is described in his gloriously complex and rhythmic painting.

Yet his was not the most surprising speech at the Archibald, Wynne and Sulman Prize announcements.

That honour goes to Doris Bush Nungarrayi, the senior Luritja artist who was awarded the Sulman Prize for her painting Mamunya ngalyananyi (Monster coming) – a painting showing Mamu, the shapeshifting malevolent spirits that haunt the Anangu.

Her acceptance speech, all in language, was a passionate celebration of her victory, but also a recollection of her mother’s country and the deprivations that she and her people have suffered.

As a new generation wins the Archibald and Wynne Prizes, tradition is reinterpreted in the Sulman.

Read more:
From joyous celebration to the depths of grief: the new orthodoxy of the Archibald prize is there is no orthodoxy

Joanna Mendelssohn’s research includes the ACD Engine and has received funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. As Julia Gutman’s maverick collage wins the Archibald prize, the award is truly in the hands of a new generation – https://theconversation.com/as-julia-gutmans-maverick-collage-wins-the-archibald-prize-the-award-is-truly-in-the-hands-of-a-new-generation-204262

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christina Heris, Research Fellow, Australian National University

Among all the talk this week about a crackdown on vaping – the most significant tobacco control reforms in a decade – has been the roll-out of another major document.

The National Tobacco Strategy 2023–2030 was launched this week.

A key priority of the strategy is Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander smoking and Closing the Gap. We heard the Tackling Indigenous Smoking program would be extended and widened – with A$141 million funding – to reduce both vaping and smoking among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.

Here’s why that’s urgently needed and what needs to happen next to reduce smoking rates among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.

Read more:
We can cut Indigenous smoking and save lives – here’s how

Tobacco is still a killer

Tobacco legally kills over 57 Australians a day. That’s equivalent to extinguishing an entire country town of 21,000 every year.

It’s still the single biggest preventable risk factor for disease and premature death. For Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, more than a third of all deaths are caused by tobacco. Over the past decade we have lost more than 10,000 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander lives due to smoking.

Multiple policy failures beyond health – from poverty, education, employment, housing, family removals, dislocation and the systematic embedding of tobacco as rations in lieu of wages – mean Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people are disproportionately impacted by the harms of Big Tobacco.

So the funding to expand the Tackling Indigenous Smoking program is urgently needed to have no more than 27% of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander smoking by 2030 (5% of all Australians).

There have been huge achievements in reducing Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander smoking. In 2018–19, 40% of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adults smoked daily, down from 50% in 2004–05. A target of 27% is achievable. But to get there we need something “extra” to accelerate those reductions.

Read more:
Here’s how to close the gap on Indigenous women smoking during pregnancy

We know what works

Tobacco campaigns are one of the most cost-effective interventions when evidence-based, market-tested, sustained and with support services at the end of the call to action. When they are adequately funded, they can impact inequities.

Campaigns must be personally relevant and meaningful to be effective. This makes the case for targeted approaches, including local level campaigns, reinforced by general, national activity. Audiences engage with the message when they can see themselves and their community members (sometimes actually) in the advertising.

We saw this nationally with Break the Chain starring Aboriginal actor and comedian Elaine Crombie. Originally this was a targeted campaign for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. But it then aired nationally targeting all Australians in 2014.

Don’t Make Smokes Your Story was launched in 2016, as part of the Tackling Indigenous Smoking program. This was created by Indigenous agency Carbon Media, starring musician Fred Leone alongside real stories from community members.

One of the most successful and innovative Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander tobacco campaigns, it included a
toolkit for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities to use and adapt the national campaign to their local contexts.

An excellent example of this is from the Apunipima Tackling Indigenous Smoking team with its local campaign Don’t Make Smokes Your Story Cape York.

When Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people lead and promote smoke-free behaviours, communities are more interested in quitting.

Read more:
Telehealth has much to offer First Nations people. But technical glitches and a lack of rapport can get in the way

What works? Product, price, place and promotion

Social marketing campaigns, like the ones we’ve mentioned, really work well when they take on the Four Ps of product, price, place and promotion.

The beautifully produced ads, the “promotion”, can’t have impact on their own. This is where the rest of the National Tobacco Strategy comes in.

1. Product

We’ve reduced product appeal with plain packaging and graphic health warnings. This will be enhanced with new warnings, including on the sticks themselves, plus greater uniformity of standardised packaging and tightened rules around additives and flavours that make smoking palatable.

2. Price

Price increases reduce smoking and we’ll see a tax increase of 5% each year for three years across all different tobacco product types.

3. Place

We have known about the harms of commercial tobacco since at least 1950. Yet we still expect individuals to give up nicotine instead of removing this lethal product from sale at pretty much every supermarket, service station and convenience store.

The National Tobacco Strategy is considering a national licensing scheme, removing online sales and delivery services, and potential for reducing the number, type and location of tobacco outlets.

There will also be more action on smoke-free areas and making sure all health professionals (particularly in remote places) are equipped to support quit attempts.

The strategy states it will explore raising the age you can buy cigarettes and monitor how this works overseas.

4. Promotion

The commitment to close any last promotional loopholes for tobacco and e-cigarettes, particularly online is also important, along with local and national anti-smoking campaigns. But we know these are not enough on their own.

What we also need

Addressing all four Ps is what comprehensive tobacco social marketing would look like. It’s what’s required to accelerate the declines to get to the 27% target for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, and 5% nationally.

Targeted approaches are critical and can be effective, but they need to be supported by bigger, whole of population structural changes. The community-led campaigns, supported by national activity, will reinforce and amplify the policy changes that will come through on the tobacco product, its cost and its availability.

That’s how we realise our goals and ultimately eliminate tobacco related disease and death.

Christina Heris receives funding from the NHMRC Centre of Research Excellence on Achieving the Tobacco Endgame (NHMRC GNT1198301), and the Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care for the Tackling Indigenous Smoking – Regional Grants Impact and Outcomes Assessment.

Lisa J Whop receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council and the Australian Research Council. She is also a member and incoming chair of Cancer Australia’s Leadership Group on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Cancer Control.

Michelle Kennedy receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Medical Research Future Fund and the National Heart Foundation.

Raglan Maddox receives funding from from the NHMRC Centre of Research Excellence on Achieving the Tobacco Endgame (NHMRC GNT1198301), and the Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care for the Tackling Indigenous Smoking – Regional Grants Impact and Outcomes Assessment.

Raymond Lovett receives funding from the NHMRC.

Tom Calma is the National Coordinator, Tackling Indigenous Smoking (TIS). This position is a consultancy to the Commonwealth Department of Health and Aged Care.

– ref. New funds will tackle Indigenous smoking. But here’s what else we know works for quit campaigns – https://theconversation.com/new-funds-will-tackle-indigenous-smoking-but-heres-what-else-we-know-works-for-quit-campaigns-205016

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Kenny, Professor, Australian Studies Institute, Australian National University

The crisis consuming the Victorian branch of the Liberal Party sounds a warning to centre-right parties that pursuing the culture wars now gripping the United States and other countries brings dangerous volatility. And little public support.

After it was humiliated at the November 2022 election by a long-term Labor government beset with its own failings and character questions, the state division in the nation’s second-most populous state is regarded as a basket case.

The future of its moderate parliamentary leader, John Pesutto, who took over from the hapless Matthew Guy, now hangs in the balance.

A cabal of religious and hardline social conservatives in Pesutto’s party room is defying his attempts to shift the party closer to mainstream voter sentiment on key social policy debates.

Read more:
Victorian Liberals embarrassed by extremists within: how does this keep happening?

With the stoush dominating the headlines – even beyond Victoria – a clearly frustrated federal leader Peter Dutton has pointedly refused to rule out federal intervention to clean up the mess, which he says is harming the Liberal “brand” and letting the Andrews Labor government off lightly.

It is far from clear that a federal intervention is even practical. But Dutton’s comments represent a significant escalation in a crisis that seems increasingly likely to end up in the courts.

Pesutto’s removal is also now more likely given that several Liberals in his depleted caucus have backed rebel MP Moira Deeming.

Deeming is challenging her suspension from the party following her attendance at an anti-trans “Let Women Speak” rally in front of Parliament House. The event attracted extremists, including neo-Nazis.

Read more:
Australian conservatism succumbs to the same radical tendency as like-minded parties abroad

The outspoken MP has reportedly instructed lawyers to challenge a party-room ruling that she would not be expelled from the party – as Pesutto initially proposed – but would instead serve a nine-month suspension, during which she would sit on the crossbench.

Deeming says the compromise decision included Pesutto explicitly stating publicly that she was in no way a Nazi sympathiser, which she says he has not done.

Deeming’s supporters, who met at a country hotel last weekend and then used social media to advertise the fact, say she has been treated abysmally.

Amid the chaos, minutes of the March 27 party-room meeting show tempers were high. In the meeting, Pesutto was warned by senior figures against taking steps towards Deeming’s expulsion.

Deeming claims she has been effectively tagged with Nazi sympathies via a dossier circulated at the meeting. This is said to have linked the British social agitator Kellie-Jay Keen, who goes also by the name of Posie Parker, with fanatical authoritarians.

Pesutto denies anything in the dossier established Deeming herself as “a Nazi or having Nazi sympathies”.

Nevertheless, the unseemly public struggle for the soul of the Victorian Liberal Party has again drawn attention to the type of candidates chosen by local rank-and-file branch members. There are claims of “entryism” – an insidious form of political party infiltration whereby hardline forces, often associated with rightwing Pentecostal faith communities, join local party branches en masse to install like-minded candidates in winnable Liberal seats.

Liberal insiders say Dutton’s threat of federal intervention may be hard to deliver. Unlike the Australian Labor Party – which has a strong national structure – the Liberal Party is set up on federated lines, with each state division jealously guarding its own autonomy.

Read more:
Dutton’s high-wire act: holding the Coalition together while presenting as an alternative government

However, federal interventions have occurred in the past. One example was last year when, just before the federal election, a special committee featuring then prime minister Scott Morrison, then NSW premier Dominic Perrottet, and former party president Chris McDiven was empowered to crash through factional roadblocks to endorse candidates in several Liberal-held seats.

Sources say gaining support for such extraordinary powers is not straightforward. It would need to achieve a super-majority of the party’s federal executive – a three-quarters majority in favour of federal intervention in a state’s affairs. It may also require the backing of the Victorian state president.

Party insiders say such actions are inimical to Liberal Party philosophy and would only be granted in extreme circumstances, based on the narrowest of parameters and a short time frame.

The intervention itself would also be likely to end up in court, with opponents challenging its legality and the force of its decisions.

In any event, courts have shown reluctance to adjudicate on internal political party disputes, generally regarding them as matters for the parties and individuals involved.

The Victorian Liberals’ problems are merely the latest example of a tendency in conservative politics to prosecute niche or peripheral social policy campaigns against advances in Indigenous rights, gender fluidity and identity, feminism, sexuality, and birth control.

Given Dutton’s own antagonism for what his party dismissively describes as “wokeism” and “corporate activism” on the Voice and other questions, moderates may view his threat of federal intervention as an attempt to press Pesutto and other moderates into backing down by readmitting Deeming to the party room.

But after his own party’s performance in the federal Aston byelection, in which the Liberals surrendered a seat to a Labor government for the first time in more than 100 years, Dutton’s cache in the state is questionable.

Mark Kenny does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Victorian Liberals’ bitter infighting seems more and more likely to end up in court. Can Dutton stop it? – https://theconversation.com/victorian-liberals-bitter-infighting-seems-more-and-more-likely-to-end-up-in-court-can-dutton-stop-it-205119

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Volodymyr Bilotkach, Associate Professor, Purdue University

Vanessa Hudson, who will replace Alan Joyce as Qantas Airlines’ chief executive in November, inherits an airline still struggling to resume services after the pandemic and border closures shuttered much of the global aviation industry in 2020.

The silver lining for Qantas has been that high demand for air travel has enabled it to charge higher airfares. It even managed to report a A$1.43 billion profit in the second half of 2022.

But these conditions won’t last. As Hudson – an accountant who joined Qantas in 1994 and has been chief customer officer since 2018 – deals with the highly unusual short-term challenges that come with recovery, she will increasingly have to turn her mind to all the long-term challenges that existed for Australia’s flagship airline before 2020.

High demand, but not enough planes or staff

There are two main reasons demand for air travel is recovering faster than supply.

First is the time and effort to return to service the aircraft stored during the pandemic, parked at regional inland airports and plane storage sites. Qantas put about 100 of its 126 planes into storage, retired six ageing Boeing 747s and deferred delivery of new Airbus A321neo and Boeing 787-9 planes.

Never in the history of civil aviation have airlines had to store so many aircraft. Returning them to service requires exhaustive maintenance checks and tests. Limited skilled maintenance crew can only ready so many aircraft to return to flying.

Which leads to the second, more important, issue: the need to fill jobs.

Even before the pandemic, the industry was grappling with a global shortage of experienced pilots. Now it’s grappling with replacing all the workers – air and ground crew – retrenched when borders were closed in 2020.

Qantas laid off almost a third of its 30,000 employees, included unlawfully retrenching almost 2,000 ground-crew workers. It now looking to recruit about 2,000 workers by the end of 2024 and a total of 8,500 by the end of the decade.

Many who have found employment in different industries are not returning. Some in the industry fear aviation is no longer an attractive career. And the pilots, flight attendants and mechanics that are being re-employed all require refresher training before being cleared to work.

Read more:
Averting a plane crash: what to do about the global pilot shortage

Labour shortages are affecting the entire aviation supply chain, including manufacturers. Qantas currently faces delays of about six months on new aircraft deliveries.

Competing for customers

Competition for customers will be a relatively minor concern as Qantas struggles to catch up to demand. But this won’t last as airlines rebuild fleet capability, and current high prices for air travel decline. In the US market, for instance, airfares returned to their pre-pandemic levels (in inflation-adjusted terms) at the end of 2022.

By the end of 2023 or early 2024, I expect Qantas will be grappling with substantially the same competitive pressures that drove its pre-pandemic cost-cutting and outsourcing. For this, it can partly blame global government assistance to airlines, which had the perverse consequence of fewer airline collapses in 2020 than in 2018 or 2019.

While Qantas turned a profit for each year between 2015-2019, profit margins were quite thin.

There has been a lot of talk that the pandemic changed the air-travel market irrevocably. Business travel, for example, may never recover. Consulting firm McKinsey predicted in February 2021 that the post-pandemic market of business travel would be 20% smaller.

With the jury still out on this and other questions, the challenge for Qantas and other airlines will be to plan and adapt services accordingly.

Read more:
Qantas, the trying kangaroo: why things won’t get better any time soon

New challenges for an ageing fleet

Longer term, Qantas must reduce its environmental footprint.

From 2027, all international air carriers will be required to offset the carbon emissions associated with flights – a condition set by the International Civil Aviation Organization’s Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation.

More generally, the drive to decarbonise commercial aviation also makes stricter domestic environmental requirements very likely.

This will be harder for Qantas than competitors, due to airline’s extensive network of medium and long-haul flights (which use more fuel) and ageing, less fuel-efficient fleet.

The average age of the Qantas fleet is just over 15 years, more than double that of rivals such as Singapore Airlines. Fleet renewal will be a formidable task.

Volodymyr Bilotkach is an External Instructor for IATA Training.

– ref. Qantas can’t charge these prices forever: the challenge ahead for new chief Vanessa Hudson – https://theconversation.com/qantas-cant-charge-these-prices-forever-the-challenge-ahead-for-new-chief-vanessa-hudson-204903

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elizabeth Crawford Spencer, Professor of Law, Charles Darwin University

The Northern Territory continues to report the highest levels of alcohol consumption and harm in Australia, despite decades of reform.

As we’ve seen over the years, there’s been a concerning link between alcohol consumption and domestic violence, crime and antisocial behaviour. When federal laws restricting access to alcohol lapsed last year, it led to a surge in crime that many had warned about. The alcohol ban was swiftly reinstated.

But NT-based and Indigenous communities have long argued that banning alcohol is only part of the solution to a complex problem. The challenge is to find a more long-term, sustainable solution to alcohol consumption that incorporates a mix of policy, legislative, industry and community strategies.

Here are three possible strategies for the NT:

1) Controlling supply and distribution

The simplest way governments can reduce alcohol-related harm is to decrease supply and access to alcohol.

The NT has done this by regulating alcohol outlet availability and density in cities, limiting the hours and days when alcohol can be sold, and enhancing enforcement of laws restricting or banning alcohol. The public anger over the planned opening of a Dan Murphy’s near three dry communities in 2021 indicates that Territorians understand the link between supply and harm.

Read more:
‘Just ask us, come and see us’. Aboriginal young people in the Northern Territory must be listened to, not punished

There is also compelling evidence that restrictions on Good Friday and Christmas Day – which are common throughout Australia – are associated with a decreased incidence of alcohol-related harm.

In addition, the NT government has recently announced plans to buy back liquor licences, which has been welcomed by health, First Nations and other community groups.

We can also learn from other countries how to take a more comprehensive approach.

In Norway, for instance, the government controls production and distribution through a state-owned monopoly called Vinmonopolet, which decides where outlets will be located, the hours of operation and stock.

These measures are combined with targeted and adequately resourced alcohol-related public health campaigns, such as a recent one aimed at reducing the supply of alcohol to minors.

2) Changing purchasing and consuming behaviour

The NT was the first jurisdiction to introduce a minimum unit pricing scheme, a policy that sets a minimum price at which alcohol can be sold per unit of alcohol, currently at $1.30. This has proven effective in reducing alcohol consumption – especially for wine products.

However, recent research from the UK shows that when higher-percentage alcohol products go on sale (which happens more frequently than for lower- or zero-percentage alcohol products), minimum unit pricing can be less effective.

More broadly, there have been calls to increase regulations on retail alcohol outlets. Currently, alcohol regulation is more extensive for hotels, pubs and clubs than retail outlets.

As a result, consumers may be motivated by the cheaper cost and reduced scrutiny when buying alcohol from a bottle shop. This dynamic can also facilitate risky patterns of consumption, such as pre-drinking.

Another way of changing behaviour is through health messaging. Most alcohol labelling is covered under Australia’s food standards code – with a strong pregnancy focus.

However, a recently published study found that using both words and images on health warning labels can better informs people about the health risks associated with alcohol (including cancer). This would be similar to the warnings used on tobacco labels.

These enhanced warning labels also lead people to form stronger intentions to reduce consumption, compared to text or photograph warnings alone.

Read more:
Alcohol bans and law and order responses to crime in Alice Springs haven’t worked in the past, and won’t work now

3) Empowering community-led approaches

Another way governments and communities can manage alcohol-related harm is to promote drink-free activities and one-month alcohol abstinence campaigns, such as “dry July”. These types of campaigns have lasting positive effects on health, wellbeing and maintaining control over drinking.

Some Darwin locals have also formed a social sober club, where socialisation without alcohol is emphasised.

However, such efforts often go against entrenched drinking norms in Australia.

And many people drink not for socialisation, but to cope with broader social problems and stressors. Issues such as unemployment, housing stress and mental health are linked to alcohol use, which are especially relevant in regional and remote areas in the NT.

Similarly, the continued effects of colonisation and intergenerational trauma experienced by First Nations people necessitate an approach that emphasises the right to self-determination in addressing alcohol-related issues.

We need to provide adequate resources and support to help communities alleviate these sources of stress and trauma, which will hopefully have an impact in reducing alcohol-related harm.

A way forward

Ultimately, effective reform will require deep reflection on what alcohol means to us as individuals, and as a society.

In the NT, we need a consultative, co-design process that brings together the territory and Commonwealth governments, representatives from the alcohol industry, the alcohol rehabilitation community, tourism providers, pub owners and leaders from Indigenous communities.

By learning from the successes and failures elsewhere, we can deliver a tailored approach for the NT that will have a better chance of success in the long term.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. After decades of trying, how can we deliver more effective alcohol regulation in the NT? – https://theconversation.com/after-decades-of-trying-how-can-we-deliver-more-effective-alcohol-regulation-in-the-nt-202731

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jadey O’Regan, Lecturer in Contemporary Music, Sydney Conservatorium of Music. Co-author of "Hooks in Popular Music" (2022), University of Sydney

Earlier today, a US court ruled in favour of singer-songwriter Ed Sheeran, agreeing his song Thinking Out Loud did not breach musical copyright.

The high-profile court case, brought by the estate of soul singer Marvin Gaye, claimed Sheeran’s song was too similar to Gaye’s song Let’s Get It On.

On the stand, Sheeran defended his songwriting process, stating: “I draw inspiration from a lot from things in my life and family.”

Sheeran’s case brought up some difficult questions around what we understand as inspiration and influence, and what we may hear as theft.

Musical copyright cases are part of songwriting history. Radiohead’s Creep was found to be too similar to the Hollies’ The Air That I Breathe, and in 2018, Lana Del Rey’s Get Free was found to plagiarise Creep.

Mark Ronson and Bruno Mars altered the credits to Uptown Funk to acknowledge the similarity to The Gap Band’s Oops Upside Your Head.

Here in Australia, the flute solo in Men at Work’s Down Under, which quoted the melody of folk song Kookaburra Sits in the Old Gum Tree, was ruled as plagiarism.

In this case against Sheeran, the song’s chord progression was at the heart of the claim. The prosecution argued Sheeran’s chord progression was too similar to the chord progression of Gaye’s.

But can we copyright a chord progression if it is used extensively in other pop songs?

Gaye’s song uses four chords that gradually move upward (I-iii-IV-V). These same chords can be heard in the Beach Boys’ I Can Hear Music, the Seekers’ Georgy Girl, the Beatles’ I Feel Fine, in the Motown tune This Old Heart of Mine by the Isley Brothers, Elvis Presley’s Suspicious Minds, Cher’s Believe and ABBA’s Knowing Me Knowing You, among many others.

This chord progression and many others are part of the songwriting toolkit of rock and pop and have been heard continuously over the past 70 years.

Read more:
The Down Under book and film remind us our copyright law’s still unfair for artists

The 12 bar blues

A chord progression is the main instrumental part you hear in most pop music, usually played by a guitar, piano or synth.

One of the oldest chord progressions in pop is the 12-bar blues – a looping pattern of three chords that is very identifiable.

As the name suggests, this set of chords stems from early blues and was a way for musicians to easily play together and improvise. A version of this progression can be heard in Muddy Waters’ I’m Your Hoochie Coochie Man or John Lee Hooker’s Boom Boom.

You can also hear this progression in a number of other pop songs – listen to verses of Queen’s I Want to Break Free and Kiss by Prince – both use the same chord progression, but sound very different to each other.

More recently, Lizzo’s Better in Colour uses the 12-bar blues in a way that makes an old formula fresh.

The ‘doo-wop’ progression

The “doo-wop” progression has appeared in pop music for close to 80 years, and is named because most doo-wop songs feature this chord progression – it was an essential part of its sound.

You can hear it in 1950s hits such as the Penguins’ Earth Angel and Frankie Lymon and the Teenagers’ Why Do Fools Fall in Love?.

The strength of these chords means they are used in pop music of all kinds, including ELO’s Telephone Line, Don’t Dream it’s Over by Crowded House, Destiny’s Child’s Say My Name, Blank Space by Taylor Swift, and Flowers by Miley Cyrus.

Despite its consistent use, these chords still cross genres and eras, and still catch our ears.

Comedy act Axis of Awesome use a similar progression in their video for 4 Chords, where they cleverly play almost 50 different songs with a variation on these four simple chords.

The I-IV-V (the ‘one, four, five’)

Perhaps the most common chord progressions in rock and pop are those that use the I, IV and V chords in various combinations.

They’re usually the first three chords you learn on an instrument and open up thousands of songs to play – from the rock and roll of Summertime Blues by Eddie Cochran, the garage rock of Wild Thing by the Troggs, the bubblegum of Hanson’s Mmmbop and the indie rock of Coldplay’s Yellow, to the modern pop of bad guy by Billie Eilish and good 4 u by Olivia Rodrigo.

Going forward

Rock, pop, blues, doo wop and other musical genres can often be defined by their use of repeated chord progressions. These chord progressions are part of a songwriter’s toolkit in a similar way to how an artist may use different paint brushes.

As Sheeran’s lawyer Ilene Farkas noted, chord progressions are:

the letters of the alphabet of music […] these are basic musical building blocks that songwriters now and forever must be free to use.

It is how these “building blocks” are used, and in what combinations, that gives us a great variety of pop songs over many decades. The true craft of great pop music is to take these formulas and turn them into something unique (while simultaneously making it sound easy).

The ruling in Sheeran’s case supports the rights of musical artists to continue to use these progressions as part of a songwriter’s toolkit, and to build from the artists who came before them. It also acknowledges that influence and inspiration from previous works are part of the construction of the pop music we love.

Read more:
Why Ed Sheeran’s court victory sounds good for the music industry

Jadey O’Regan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Inspiration, influence and theft: what the Ed Sheeran case can tell us about 70 years of pop music – https://theconversation.com/inspiration-influence-and-theft-what-the-ed-sheeran-case-can-tell-us-about-70-years-of-pop-music-204747

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jason Byrne, Professor of Human Geography and Planning, University of Tasmania

Following a decision to fund an AFL stadium on Hobart’s waterfront, the Tasmanian premier announced plans for a new bus rapid transit (BRT) system and ferry services to avoid traffic congestion. These plans are linked to Hobart’s City Deal and promise to reinvigorate the city’s ailing public transport system.

Hobart once led transport innovation. It was the first city in the southern hemisphere with an electric tram system. At its peak, these trams handled 40% of journeys in the city.

Since the 1970s, though, following the closure of Hobart’s last passenger rail service, the city’s public transport network has suffered from dwindling investment and patronage (now under 5% of journeys). Could bus rapid transit help combat the city’s notorious car dependence?

Read more:
Growth pains and gridlock come to Hobart, and building more roads is not the best way out

What is bus rapid transit?

Bus rapid transit systems typically run buses along dedicated corridors, taking the bus out of traffic. They can be highly effective people-movers. Many such systems have achieved passenger capacities comparable to light rail.

For example, bus rapid transit systems move more than 40,000 passengers per hour in Bogota, Colombia, and around 20,000 in Brisbane. The vehicles are no ordinary bus – they can carry nearly 200 passengers in comfort.

Modern articulated electric BRT vehicles provide a similar ride experience to light rail. And bus rapid transit stations have the look and feel of rail stations.

Is this system a better choice than light rail?

A key question some Hobart residents are asking is why the Tasmanian government has chosen bus over light rail. A major reason is the cost-effectiveness of this sort of bus system. A state government-funded report estimated the construction cost of Hobart’s rapid bus transit system at A$445 million, versus $596 million for light rail.

Recognising that these are pre-COVID numbers, costs will now be much higher. For example, while Canberra’s light rail cost $675 million, the cost of stage 3 of the Gold Coast light rail has blown out from around $600 million to $1.2 billion.

Bus rapid transit vehicles also cost less, but their passenger capacities are comparable to light rail vehicles. The Canberra light rail vehicle can carry 207 passengers. Brisbane’s Metro rapid transit bus will have a capacity of 150-180 people.

Read more:
Why cities planning to spend billions on light rail should look again at what buses can do

How do we ensure it works in Hobart?

Research has identified several important principles that need to be met if the new Hobart bus system is to be effective. These include reliable, high-frequency services, effective station design, quality station amenities, ride quality and passenger experience.

Investing in quality infrastructure will be essential. As Brisbane’s busway has shown, it is vital that buses coming into a station don’t clog up the corridor when passengers alight. Station designs must allow room for multiple vehicles, with by-pass lanes around stations to allow express services to continue unimpeded.

The vehicles must have multiple doors so passengers can get on and off quickly.

As research on Melbourne’s tram system shows, if public transport gets stuck in traffic, patronage will suffer. That’s because the system is then slower (average 15 kilometres per hour) than taking a car and much more unreliable.

For this reason, the new bus rapid transit system must have its own dedicated corridor and not share intersections with other traffic – or else traffic lights must give priority to the buses. Research shows this will enable the vehicle to increase its average speed to more than 50km/h (maximum 80km/h). Because the Gold Coast light rail does not have a dedicated corridor for parts of its route, its average operating speed is only 27km/h.

The passenger experience will also be crucial for the system’s success. Research shows passengers have a low tolerance for waiting around and having to transfer between routes and to other transit modes (such as ferries).

Experience elsewhere also shows it is important that passengers get tickets at the station, not on the bus. A ticketing system that allows seamless transfer between bus rapid transit, regular buses and ferries will be vital to maximise efficient travel. It’s also important to design stations and vehicles to provide universal access, so everyone can use the new system.

Rapid bus transit has broader impacts too

The impacts of bus rapid transit on a city are broader than transport. It has important land-use planning benefits. A well-designed system can increase housing densities and thus improve housing options, including affordable housing, along the corridor.

A bus rapid transit network can also connect people with jobs, education, healthcare, childcare and recreation opportunities. Councils along the new transit corridor in Hobart will need to protect adjoining land from speculative investment to manage gentrification. They will also have to develop sound design guidelines to steer desirable types of development, such as medium-density neighbourhoods – the “missing middle”.

Read more:
People want and need more housing choice. It’s about time governments stood up to deliver it

Bus rapid transit is emerging as a very viable way to deliver quality transport solutions for cities. It’s especially suitable for those with limited resources, such as smaller cities and those in the developing world. While Hobart’s bus rapid transit is explicitly linked to the new stadium, cities like Barcelona have shown such urban revitalisation investment can have transformative benefits for cities.

Jason Byrne receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is an ARC Future Fellow, working on green-space and thermal inequity. Jason is also a recipient of a Natural Disaster Risk Reduction Grant, assessing exposure to extreme heat events in Launceston and Hobart, Tasmania.

Graham Currie receives funding from the Australian Research Council. The chair of public transport is funded by Government and transport authorities in Victoria to provide independent advice on improving public transport systems. He is also a researcher and advisor on transport systems development in every State and Territory of Australia and many overseas authorities.

– ref. Bus rapid transit can avoid traffic chaos for the AFL’s new stadium and transform Hobart – and other cities too – https://theconversation.com/bus-rapid-transit-can-avoid-traffic-chaos-for-the-afls-new-stadium-and-transform-hobart-and-other-cities-too-204920

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Darren Ray, PhD candidate | Paleoclimate, University of Adelaide

Think back to September last year. What happened early that month? What news shook the world and reverberated for weeks, if not months?

That’s a question I’ve been asking friends and colleagues lately.

On September 8, 2022, at 6.30pm in Britain, Buckingham Palace announced the death of Queen Elizabeth II. The news broke just 30 minutes before the press embargo lifted on a major review of climate change tipping points in the journal Science.

The paper in Science was truly earth-shattering, as it heralded changes that could threaten the future of civil society on this planet. But it was the other news that captured the world’s attention.

So, in case you missed it, I’d like to alert you to this important paper by British climate researcher David Armstrong MᶜKay and colleagues.

Read more:
Climate tipping points could lock in unstoppable changes to the planet – how close are they?

Grappling with tipping points

The question of when global warming might push elements of the climate system past points of no return has come into focus over last the decade or so. And tipping points once thought to be far off in the distance have come into sharp relief.

The research examines major features of the global climate system, such as ice sheets, glaciers, rainforests and coral reefs. It asks when melting of ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica would become irreversible, ultimately contributing many metres to sea level. Or when thawing of frozen ground in the Arctic might start producing so much methane and carbon dioxide (CO₂) that it blows the global emissions budget.

Amazonian forest die-back is another major part of the Earth’s climate system. Global heating and regional reductions in rainfall could cause trees to die, releasing large amounts of greenhouse gases. Fewer trees ultimately means less rainfall for those that remain, creating a vicious cycle.

The pivotal paper in Science reviewed more than 220 papers published since 2008 to estimate what level of global temperature rise (relative to pre-industrial levels) would trigger each of the global and regional climate tipping points.

The world has already warmed 1.1℃ (see the horizontal line “current warming” in the chart above). The 1.5℃ and 2℃ lines represent the Paris Agreement on climate change targets agreed to internationally in 2016.

Once initiated, irreversible melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet would add about 5m to global sea level. Disturbingly, the threshold for this tipping point may have already been crossed. If not, it is “very likely” to be crossed at 2℃.

Ice sheets in West Antarctica contain about another 3.5m of sea level rise, and again, irreversible melting is likely to begin at around 2℃.

So, that’s about 5m from Greenland and another 3.5m from West Antarctica. Add thermal expansion from warming oceans, and mountain glacier melt, and we have more than 10m of sea level rise to contend with.

While that will unfold over many centuries, it will be irreversible and inexorable. It means children born today will likely see sea levels rise by well over 1m early in the 22nd century. Longer-term, these changes will shape the planet for the next 150,000 years or so, until the next ice age.

Consider how 10m of sea level rise might change the map at ClimateCentral.

Read more:
Torrents of Antarctic meltwater are slowing the currents that drive our vital ocean ‘overturning’ – and threaten its collapse

Much of the world’s tropical coral reefs will likely die at 1.5℃ to 2℃ of warming. And thawing of Arctic permafrost would start releasing vast amounts of greenhouse gases, equal to about 10% of human emissions. That would likely push global temperature up by another 0.5℃ to 1.0℃ (on top of 2℃).

Thankfully, logging and wildfire aside, the Amazon forest looks relatively safe until about 3℃ of warming. But the combination of some of those other tipping points might get us there, setting off a further cascade of tipping points.

Can we avoid disaster?

After decades of delay, our chances of keeping global warming below 1.5℃ are pretty slim. But, clearly, this research shows that limiting warming to 2℃ will not keep us safe.

The focus on “net zero by 2050” has in fact done us a disservice. If we let emissions remain anywhere near current levels for much longer, by 2030 we will have used up the carbon emissions budget that would allow us to stay near 1.5℃.

We need to act quickly and at least halve current emissions by 2030 on the way to net zero before 2050. This research shows that failing to do so will trigger 10m or more of sea level rise. That will gradually displace hundreds of millions of people and many of the world’s major cities.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has begun talking about the possible failure of civil society in response to increasing extreme events. We are seeing early indicators of this in Australia, with people living in tents for years after floods made worse by climate change. They face decisions about whether or not to rebuild on that land.

How long will there be money available to provide disaster relief in Australia and around the world? Where will hundreds of millions of people go after being displaced by extreme wet bulb temperature, crop failure, fire, flooding and sea level rise?

How did we get here?

Arriving at this juncture in human history feels like a massive failure. A failure of leadership, of decision making, of information dissemination through media, and perhaps our priorities, has left us in this extremely challenging position.

Many factors have conspired against us. These include fossil fuel companies funding misinformation and climate-related “green washing” – exaggerating or misrepresenting their climate credentials. Elected leaders being influenced by donations from the fossil fuel industry. Earlier low-resolution climate models failing to capture local scale processes, and therefore underestimating climate system sensitivity. Poor media communication of the urgency of the issue. And throw in some good old human “optimism bias” towards positive outcomes.

As a climate scientist, with almost 18 years experience in operations at the Bureau of Meteorology and more recently, in my work on high resolution climate projections for state government, I deeply know the climate grief so eloquently communicated by climate researcher Joelle Gergis.

In response, I have had to draw on tools such as meditation and mindfulness to deal with the awareness the science presents including the likely future suffering of so many. It is challenging to see where we are heading and – with what is at stake – to see life going on as if everything is fine.

Read more:
Introducing Fear and Wonder: The Conversation’s new climate podcast

A turning point

Future events are going to challenge us in many ways. Humanity faces a choice between retreat into fear and war, or cooperation and collaboration. There is much already happening and a lot we can do, as individuals and communities. We can restore landscapes, reward sustainability, create a circular economy and electrify everything. But we need to act fast.

So, as King Charles III’s coronation plays across our TV screens and media feeds in coming days, keep the incredibly urgent climate crisis in mind. Ask our leaders to step up. Do not be distracted, as future generations will judge us for the choices we make today.

Read more:
‘It can be done. It must be done’: IPCC delivers definitive report on climate change, and where to now

Darren Ray receives a Federal Govt RTPS postgraduate scholarship, and is the recipient of funding associated with a SUBAK Australia Fellowship. Darren Ray is a past employee of the Bureau of Meteorology.

– ref. Humanity’s tipping point? How the Queen’s death stole a climate warning’s thunder – https://theconversation.com/humanitys-tipping-point-how-the-queens-death-stole-a-climate-warnings-thunder-203143

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Craig Stevens, Professor in Ocean Physics, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research

A changing climate is upon us, with more frequent land and marine heatwaves, forest fires, atmospheric rivers and floods. For some, it is the backdrop to day-to-day life, but for a growing number of people it is a life-changing reality.

It is now more remarkable when a year is not the hottest since our species began to develop civilisations.

Whenever we experience extreme climate events, it can be hard to engage with the concept that they are minor blips in the planetary experiment we are conducting. But the main act is taking place elsewhere in the oceans, which soak up more than 90% of the excess heat energy.

We are winding up a clockwork spring without knowing exactly when, how fast and how it will unspool. Ocean heating is not so much a canary in a coal mine but a thrashing shark we’ve inadvertently (at least initially) hauled up into our fishing boat.

A bonfire of records

A drop in the area covered by sea ice, both in the Arctic and more recently also in Antarctica, is one of the latest record-breaking changes. These floating expanses of frozen seawater are central to how our world works. They regulate how much light our planet reflects, help ventilate the oceans, and host important ecosystems in the form of algal meadows on their underside.

But now, due to the warming of the ocean, we have the lowest sea ice area ever recorded.

Ocean scientists are not used to thinking of rapid change, but the trajectory of the global average temperature on the surface of the ocean has now entered uncharted territory – and fast.

We know about the scale of this thanks to satellite technology that can sense small changes in temperature at the ocean surface.

À lire aussi :
How much will our oceans warm and cause sea levels to rise this century? We’ve just improved our estimate

These surface data are just that: the temperature of the very skin of the ocean. To get a sense of warming in the deeper ocean, we use ship-based measurements and a fleet of underwater robots known as Argo.

The global ocean heat transport

The deep ocean is clearly changing. This is because polar sea ice acts as a connector between the atmosphere, the surface of the ocean and deeper waters. With less sea ice, there is less cold, salty, oxygenated water sinking to the deep ocean.

These freezing coastal waters of Antarctica are a crucial engine room for global currents that convey energy around the planet – and this ocean transport mechanism is now changing.

À lire aussi :
Torrents of Antarctic meltwater are slowing the currents that drive our vital ocean ‘overturning’ – and threaten its collapse

One of the unknowns of ocean warming is how the oceans will adjust and store all the heat. Heating the ocean surface makes the upper reaches more stable. This in turn changes how the upper ocean absorbs carbon dioxide.

The difficulty for researchers determining how best to respond is that the processes that move and mix this heat operate over very small scales. It is beyond even our most powerful climate simulators to model exactly how the heat is spread, making predictions less certain.

Even if our models could work at very big and very small scales at the same time, they would have few data for validation. This is because very little of the ocean’s mixing has been observed directly.

While we can predict some of this mixing, the ocean is full of surprises. Recently, the Drake Passage has been shown to be even more of a mixing hotspot than previously thought.

A warming Pacific

Despite the connected ocean, the individual basins have their own characteristics and contributions to climate. Aotearoa New Zealand sits in the southwest corner of the Pacific Ocean, which covers about a third of the globe’s surface.

The Pacific is so large it has its own internal cycles, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We have to disentangle these to understand long-term changes.

While El Niño conditions can bring marine heatwaves to some areas of the Pacific, the oceans around Aotearoa New Zealand, especially to the south, are already experiencing nearly constant marine heatwaves.

À lire aussi :
It might be the world’s biggest ocean, but the mighty Pacific is in peril

The scale of the oceanic contribution to storing heat means any small change to how this has operated over the past millennia may have very large impacts. It is impossible to overstate the urgency with which we need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Technologies that can capture already emitted carbon dioxide have many proponents, but they must not come at the expense of efforts to turn off emission sources. Without removing the drivers of emissions, these stop-gap measures will only delay the inevitable. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change put it in its latest report:

There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all.

Craig Stevens receives funding from the New Zealand Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) Antarctica New Zealand Antarctic Science Platform (ASP), MBIE Strategic Science Investment Fund and the New Zealand Royal Society Te Apārangi Marsden Fund. He is on the Council of the New Zealand Association of Scientists.

– ref. Record low Antarctic sea ice is another alarming sign the ocean’s role as climate regulator is changing – https://theconversation.com/record-low-antarctic-sea-ice-is-another-alarming-sign-the-oceans-role-as-climate-regulator-is-changing-204680

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Doug Drury, Professor/Head of Aviation, CQUniversity Australia

What happens when you flush a toilet on a plane? –Lily, aged 6, Harcourt

Lily this is a great question! It doesn’t work like your toilet at home, which uses gravity to remove waste from our toilets into the sewer system. An aeroplane toilet uses a vacuum system along with a blue chemical that cleans and removes odours every time you flush.

A smelly tank

The waste and blue cleaning fluid ends up in a storage tank under the floor, in the very back of the cargo hold of the aeroplane. With so many people on the plane using the toilets, you can imagine how big the storage tank is!

The system is designed very much like the vacuum cleaners we use around the house to remove dirt and dust from our floors. This dirt and dust ends up in a container that we empty into a garbage bin. Similarly, the aeroplane’s toilets need the vacuum pressure system to move all the waste from the toilet into the plumbing pipe that connects the toilet to the storage tank, and finally into the tank.

There is a valve on the storage tank that opens when a toilet is flushed and closes when the toilet is not in use – to prevent odours from leaving the tank. This helps to keep the smell down from so many people using the toilet during a flight. The blue chemical helps to keep the smell down as well.

Where does it go once the plane lands?

A special truck comes to the aircraft after it lands and connects a hose to remove the waste and blue cleaning chemical into a storage tank on the truck. The truck plugs a hose into the airplane’s waste tank valve and removes all of the waste into the tank on the back of the truck.

The truck then takes the waste to a special area at the airport reserved for the waste from all aeroplanes, and the toilet waste is emptied into the sewer system for that airport. The training to operate the truck takes three days.

Watch out for blue ice

It has also been reported that sometimes, particularly on older planes, the valve where the waste truck connects to the aeroplane can leak a small amount of the waste and blue chemical. This turns to ice as the temperature at normal cruising altitude of 30,000 feet is normally around -56℃ and the chemical turns to “blue ice”. This blue ice remains attached to the plane as long as the temperature remains below freezing.

Once the aeroplane begins to descend to land at the destination airport, the blue ice begins to thaw and may even fall off. There have been several occasions reported in the news where people have witnessed this flying poo!

In case you were wondering, the captain of the plane doesn’t have a button to release the waste from the storage tank while the plane is flying. Any waste that might leak out of the plane would be totally accidental.

Some people do think aeroplane contrails (the white lines planes sometimes leave in the sky) are either a special mind-control chemical or toilet waste. This is not true! What you are actually seeing are water vapours coming from the engine becoming ice crystals – like a thin cloud in the sky.

Read more:
Curious Kids: where do clouds come from and why do they have different shapes?

Doug Drury does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Curious Kids: What happens when you flush a toilet on a plane? – https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-what-happens-when-you-flush-a-toilet-on-a-plane-201464

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jarrad Daniel Kowlessar, Associate Lecturer, Flinders University

Many visitors to Arnhem Land in the Northern Territory are struck by the magnificent cliffs, stunning bird life and extraordinary rock art. Some may know this landscape includes the earliest evidence of human occupation in what is now Australia, at Madjedbebe, where signs of habitation have been dated to 65,000 years ago.

Most people, however, ignore the expansive floodplains surrounding these sites, especially when they are covered by water during the wet season.

Our research, recently published in PLOS One, shows these floodplains hide a complex landscape buried deep underground critical to understanding the deep history of the region. We have mapped the cliffs and rivers, more than 15 metres below the current surface, which would have greeted the first people to arrive here.

Red Lily Lagoon

This landscape has been transformed by a sea-level rise of more than 120 metres, which brought the coastline from more than 200 kilometres away to lap directly on the cliffs in the Red Lily Lagoon area in Western Arnhem Land.

Since then, the East Alligator River has filled this region with sediment and the coast has retreated 60 kilometres to the northeast, leaving the current landscape of jagged sandstone cliffs surrounded by flat floodplains, which are seasonally flooded.

The buried landscape we have mapped contains a sandstone escarpment, now buried underground, which has great potential to contain archaeological sites. This overlooked a deep valley that contained a river system, which is now buried by more than 15 metres of sediment.

Eventually, around 8,000 years ago, this river system was flooded by sea-level rise, leading to mangroves filling the valley and levelling it with marine sediments built up between the roots of the mangrove trees.

These major changes in the local environments are also visible through materials excavated from Madjedbebe and other sites in the area.

The excavations show people in the area ate land animals and freshwater fish before the valley flooded. But afterwards, diets changed to take advantage of the ample supply of shellfish.

À lire aussi :
Buried tools and pigments tell a new history of humans in Australia for 65,000 years

Modern maps of an ancient landscape

Previous work in Arnhem Land using drilling has provided some information about the history of the landscape, but our research achieves much greater detail.

Our work used a technique called electrical resistivity tomography. This is when we pass an electrical current through the ground to measure the nature of the sediments and rocks beneath the surface. This method can map more than 50 metres below the surface, and because it doesn’t involve digging or drilling, we could work right up to existing archaeological sites.

We combined this data with aerial mapping of the modern landscape undertaken with a drone and an airborne laser. This allows us to compare the subsurface results to the contemporary land surface and get a good understanding for just how much change has occurred up to the present day.

While geophysics techniques like these are often used to find and map archaeological sites, we instead focused on reconstructing the ancient landscape itself. Knowing how landscapes have changed provides important context for understanding choices people may have made about where to live, what to eat and how to move around.

What lies beneath?

This research paints a new picture of the landscape that greeted the First Peoples on their arrival. This older buried landscape, which is so different to the modern one, was occupied for most of the history of human activity in the area – starting over 60,000 years ago and lasting until just 8,000 years ago.

The past 8,000 years have seen dramatic changes, from a dry river valley to a mangrove forest to today’s seasonally inundated flood plains. These changes would have had important implications for people, including in terms of what they could eat and drink, and where they could live.

Some archaeologists have questioned the accuracy of the dates of occupation determined from the Madjebebe site. Criticism has focused on possible disturbance to the site by termite activity, and also the lack of other sites of a similar age in the region.

Our research shows why a lack of other sites may not be surprising: the most likely places for people to have lived when they first occupied this area are now buried more than 10 metres beneath the floodplain.

‘We want people to see’

Beyond Red Lily Lagoon, the methods we have used will give archaeologists a low cost, non-invasive way to understand ancient landscapes on a broad scale. Better models of how the environment has changed let us ask new questions about how people lived.

This is useful, not just as a tool for understanding why sites are where they are but also how people may have responded to the landscape around them. For example, we may have a different view of a rock art panel if we can understand what the artist could see around them when they painted it.

This research also has important implications for First Nations people. Alfred Nayinggul, a senior Erre Traditional Owner from Arnhem Land and co-author of this research, said:

We want people to see and want people to know what’s been happening many thousand years ago in the past. We need to know where those other places in Australia are, and that it was different before, and how it was formed, and we didn’t know what it was. We need to know, us Bininj, and everyone in the world with this new technology, bringing that up to our country. I need to know, and the rest of the world would see, what was in the past.

Jarrad Kowlessar receives funding from Flinders University.

Daryl Wesley receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, the Museum and Art Gallery of the Northern Territory, National Geographic Research Scheme and Flinders University.

Ian Moffat receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, the Museum and Art Gallery of the Northern Territory and Flinders University.

Alfred Nayinggul ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Remarkable new tech has revealed the ancient landscape of Arnhem Land that greeted Australia’s First Peoples – https://theconversation.com/remarkable-new-tech-has-revealed-the-ancient-landscape-of-arnhem-land-that-greeted-australias-first-peoples-201394

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Mehigan, Senior Lecturer in Law, University of Canterbury

The imminent coronation of King Charles III is an ideal time for Australia and New Zealand to take stock of the British monarchy and its role in national life – including certain myths about what becoming a republic might mean.

In particular, there is a common assumption that both nations must remain monarchies to retain membership of the Commonwealth of Nations. It might sound logical, but it’s entirely wrong.

There is no basis for it in the rules of the Commonwealth or the practice of its members. Australia could ditch the monarchy and stay in the club, and New Zealand can too, whether it has a king or a Kiwi as head of state.

Yet this peculiar myth persists at home and abroad. Students often ask me about it when I’m teaching the structure of government. And just this week a French TV station interpreted the New Zealand prime minister’s opinion that his country would one day ideally become a republic to mean he would like to see it leave the Commonwealth.

What does ‘Commonwealth’ mean?

The implication that breaking from the Commonwealth would be a precursor to, or consequence of, becoming a republic relies on a faulty premise which joins two entirely separate things: the way we pick our head of state, and our membership of the Commonwealth.

It would make just as much sense to ask whether Australia or New Zealand should leave the International Cricket Council and become a republic.

Read more:
From evolving colony to bicultural nation, Queen Elizabeth II walked a long road with Aotearoa New Zealand

The confusion may derive from the fact that the 15 countries that continue to have the British sovereign as their head of state are known as “Commonwealth Realms”.

What we usually refer to as the Commonwealth, on the other hand, is the organisation founded in 1926 as the British Commonwealth of Nations. This is the body whose membership determines the competing nations of the Commonwealth Games, the highest-profile aspect of the Commonwealth’s work.

King Charles III is the head of state of the 15 Commonwealth Realms and the head of the international governmental organisation that is the Commonwealth of Nations. The Commonwealth has 56 members – but only 15 of them continue to have the king as head of state.

Joining the Commonwealth club

To be fair, confusion over who heads the Commonwealth is nothing new. A 2010 poll conducted by the Royal Commonwealth Society found that, of the respondents in seven countries, only half knew the then queen was the head of the Commonwealth.

A quarter of Jamaicans believed the organisation was led by the then US president, Barack Obama. One in ten Indians and South Africans thought it was run by former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan.

Read more:
What is it about a republic that stumps our leaders?

Given the king’s overlapping leadership roles and the different use of the word in the contexts of Commonwealth Realms and the Commonwealth of Nations, these broad misunderstandings are perhaps understandable. In fact, it was this ambiguity that allowed for the development of an inclusive Commonwealth during the postwar years of decolonisation.

However the confusion arose, it is also very simple to correct. The Commonwealth relaxed its membership rules regarding republics when India became one in 1950.

According to Philip Murphy, the historian and former director of the Institute of Commonwealth Studies, this decision was based on the erroneous idea that India’s huge standing army would underwrite Britain’s great-power status in the postwar world.

From that point on the Commonwealth of Nations no longer comprised only members who admitted to the supremacy of one sovereign. To make the change palatable, a piece of conceptual chicanery was needed. Each country did not need a king, but the king was to be head of the organisation comprising equal members.

Read more:
God save the King: why the monarchy is safe in Aotearoa New Zealand – for now

Monarchy optional

Since then, the number of Commonwealth members has steadily increased to the 56 we have today.

As early as 1995, membership was extended to countries with no ties to the former British Empire. With the support of Nelson Mandela, Mozambique became a member, joining the six Commonwealth members with which it shared a border.

Rwanda, a former German and then Belgian colony, joined in 2009. It became an enthusiastic member and hosted the biennial meeting of states known as CHOGM (Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting). The most recent countries to take up Commonwealth membership are the former French colonies of Togo and Gabon.

According to the Commonwealth’s own rules, membership is based on a variety of things, including commitment to democratic processes, human rights and good governance. Being a monarchy is entirely optional.

The new king offers the chance for a broader debate on the advantages of monarchy. But let’s do so knowing Commonwealth membership is entirely unaffected by the question of whether or not the country is a republic.

James Mehigan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Busting a king-sized myth: why Australia and NZ could become republics – and still stay in the Commonwealth – https://theconversation.com/busting-a-king-sized-myth-why-australia-and-nz-could-become-republics-and-still-stay-in-the-commonwealth-204750

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jess Carniel, Senior Lecturer in Humanities, University of Southern Queensland

This weekend’s coronation ceremony formally invests the monarch with their regnal powers – but King Charles III has been doing the job since he was proclaimed king in September 2022. So what does a monarch actually do?

Historically, the role of the monarch was to maintain the peace of the realm, oversee the administration of justice, and to upload the rule of law in the land. While the king still represented the nation symbolically, it was a far more hands-on, practical role than monarchs of today.

Roles and responsibilities

The monarch’s position description, so to speak, includes the roles of head of state, head of nation, head of the Church of England, head of the Armed Forces, and head of the Commonwealth. These are largely ceremonial and symbolic roles – the king does not intervene in the day-to-day running of these institutions.

As head of state, the king performs certain constitutional duties. These include appointing a prime minister and inviting them to form a government, forming and dissolving parliament, opening and closing parliament each year, and signing legislation.

Upon election, the prime minister meets with the king, who formally invites them to form a government. While monarchs are expected to remain non-partisan and apolitical, they are kept informed on state matters daily and meet with the prime minister each week. These meetings are private and no record is kept of what is discussed – so, yes, those scenes in The Crown are complete fiction. The king can consult and advise, but the prime minister is under no obligation to follow any advice he provides.

The king’s parliamentary roles are largely ceremonial, with one exception. The king can dissolve parliament. The last king to do this was William IV in 1831 during the Reform Crisis.

Throughout the Commonwealth, such as Australia, the king is represented by governors-general. They perform for these nations the same constitutional duties performed by the king for the UK. Governor-General Sir John Kerr famously dismissed Prime Minister Gough Whitlam and dissolved Australian parliament in 1975. After decades of speculation about the role of the Queen in the dismissal, the so-called Palace Papers revealed that while the Palace was interested in the matter, Kerr had acted independently.

Read more:
Australian politics explainer: Gough Whitlam’s dismissal as prime minister

In international affairs, the king can act as a representative of the United Kingdom, such as meeting political leaders and hosting state functions, but cannot act politically on its behalf.

As head of nation, the king is a “focus for national identity”, symbolising its unity and continuity. In this role, the king recognises citizen achievements, attends events, and broadcasts special messages to the nation. This may include annual messages, such as the Christmas message, or special broadcasts, such as the Queen’s address at the height of the pandemic.

The king is also the head of the Church of England and Defender of the Faith. However, prior to his ascension to the throne, Charles expressed a more inclusive desire to be the defender of faiths, reflecting the multicultural and multi-faith reality of the UK and the Commonwealth.

Although the king served in all three arms of the British forces and still maintains several ceremonial rankings, the role of Head of Armed Forces is also symbolic. Should the UK go to war, the king won’t determine its defence strategy, but he will officially declare both when the country is at war and when it is over.

During the second world war, the royal family played an important role in fostering national and military morale. Then-Princess Elizabeth famously joined the Auxiliary Territorial Service when she turned 18, and trained as a mechanic.

In addition to these roles, the king also holds various royal patronages. This involves providing support to his chosen organisations by attending events and bringing publicity to the causes.

As the Prince of Wales, Charles held over 420 patronages. He inherited a further 600 following the death of Queen Elizabeth II. Some patronages were associated with the rank of Prince of Wales, so have been passed on to Prince William. Others may be redistributed amongst the senior royals in order to ensure a manageable royal workload.

Read more:
King Charles will redistribute hundreds of charity patronages – here’s why they are such an important part of royal life

Senior royals and Counsellors of State

Although there is only one monarch (it’s in the name, after all), the king does not work alone. He is often assisted in his representational duties by a group of family members referred to as the “senior” or “working royals”. These are members of the royal family who carries out duties on behalf of the Crown. Traditionally, the senior royals comprise the monarch’s consort, the heir and the heir’s spouse and children, and other children and their spouses. However, the current list of senior royals includes the king’s brother, Prince Edward, and his wife, Countess Sophie, and the king’s sister, Princess Anne.

The Duke and Duchess of Sussex (aka Harry and Meghan) famously resigned from their role as senior royals in early 2020. Prince Andrew has been removed from public duties due to allegations of sexual abuse and his association with the convicted sex trafficker, Jeffrey Epstein.

However, both Prince Harry and Prince Andrew remain among the Counsellors of State. Counsellors are determined by law – the Regency Act – and are authorised to carry out minor official constitutional duties of the king if he is overseas or unwell, such as attending Privy Council meetings and signing routine documents. But they can’t perform major duties such as appointing prime ministers or dissolving parliament.

Counsellors of State are appointed from the four adults next in succession who have reached the age of 21. The monarch’s spouse is also eligible for appointment, even though they are not in line to the throne. This meant that following the ascension of King Charles, the Counsellors of State were Queen Camilla, Prince William, Prince Harry, Prince Andrew, and Princess Beatrice.

However, as Prince Harry and Prince Andrew are not actively carrying out royal duties, and Prince Harry is no longer resident in the UK, there was some concern about the appropriateness and the sheer logistics of the current list of counsellors. To address this, the Counsellors of State Act 2022 expanded the Regency Act to specifically include Prince Edward and Princess Anne, providing the king with two more local, active, and experienced counsellors to call on.

Read more:
Why Prince Andrew and Prince Harry can fill in for the King, and how the law might change

Questioning the monarchy today

King Charles’ ascension to the throne in September 2022 prompted various national conversations around the Commonwealth of Nations about the prospect of becoming republics.

The monarch’s various duties may be largely symbolic, but symbols are powerful articulations of particular values, relationships, and histories. It is important for the various nations of the Commonwealth to reflect on their symbols and institutions as they look toward their futures.

Jess Carniel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What does a king actually do? – https://theconversation.com/what-does-a-king-actually-do-203842

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachel D Zordan, Research Fellow, St Vincent’s Hospital Melbourne and Honorary Research Fellow, Department of Medicine, The University of Melbourne

During the current housing affordability crisis, we’re seeing people who work and families with children becoming homeless or living in unstable housing.

They may be living in a motel room, vehicle, tent or caravan park. They may be on a friend’s couch or on the street.

They may be exposed to health hazards, including excessive heat or cold, poor ventilation or mould, injury, overcrowding, vermin, violence, or a combination of these – all while trying to hold down a job or getting their kids to school.

The lack of affordable housing and its impact on homelessness is a talking point ahead of next week’s federal budget.

Here are some of the unique physical and mental health challenges of being homeless today.

Read more:
We identified who’s most at risk of homelessness and where they are. Now we must act, before it’s too late

Housing is too expensive

Unaffordable housing is a leading cause of homelessness in Australia. And having a job no longer guarantees secure housing.

A recent report from Anglicare Australia described just how hard it is to afford a private rental in 2023, even if working full time on the minimum wage.

Women tend to earn less than men and are among the fastest growing groups of people who experience homelessness in Australia.

Families with children are homeless and living in insecure housing, too. Figures from the last census show around 19,400 children aged up to 14 years were homeless that night, either with their families or alone.

Read more:
‘I left with the kids and ended up homeless with them’: the nightmare of housing wait lists for people fleeing domestic violence

Impacts on health

For decades, we’ve known people’s health suffers if they experience homelessness. This has included our own research into homelessness among people who attend emergency departments, which shows the long-term consequences of unstable housing.

We found that even being marginally housed (at risk of homelessness) was enough to increase mortality rates. These people died, on average, six years earlier than people who were housed.

Steep housing costs, poor dwelling conditions, overcrowding, and evictions leave people vulnerable to illness, injury, and victimisation.

For example, people who live in housing that’s too hot or too cold are more likely to have breathing problems, including asthma, or heart problems.

We know overcrowding directly contributes to poor physical health, such as infectious diseases and injuries.

Unstable housing contributes to unhealthy behaviours, such as substance use and poor diet, which can compound over time. Unstable housing may also disrupt access to health care, including to prescription medications, causing people to delay seeking care.

Being homeless increases the likelihood of being the victim of violent crime, which threatens physical and psychological health in the short and long term.

Read more:
Disempowered, shut off and less able to afford healthy choices – how financial hardship is bad for our health

Understandably, the psychological wellbeing of adults experiencing homelessness is worse than the general population.

Lack of routine and loss of a sense of home and community can lead to social isolation and onset or recurrence of mental illness. Indeed, post-traumatic stress disorder, substance use disorders, and suicidality (thinking about or attempting suicide) are more common in people who experience homelessness.

Read more:
How financial stress can affect your mental health and 5 things that can help

Impacts on children

Children and young people may be particularly vulnerable to the health consequences of poor housing. For instance, cold, damp conditions lead to higher rates of breathing problems.

When crammed into undersized spaces or places not meant for people to live, a lack of space for cooking, playing, or schoolwork can have their effects, particularly on children.

For instance, children who live in overcrowded homes are more likely to have poorer mental health and do less-well at school.

Children’s long-term health may also be affected if preventative health care, such as immunisations or dental visits, are missed.

Working while homeless has extra challenges

Working while homeless is uniquely challenging.

People who work and are homeless may hide their homelessness out of shame, fear of judgement, and worry about losing their job.

The stress of being homeless can affect work performance and the ability to hold down a job. Taking time off from work to seek stable accommodation may further jeopardise employment.

Workers who are rough sleeping report particular struggles. Getting adequate sleep is difficult and even risky. Maintaining good hygiene and clean clothing is tough. Transport to and from work may become difficult to afford.

Read more:
This is what the lives of Big Issue sellers tell us about working and being homeless

It’s a human rights issue

Health and housing are basic human rights. And stable housing is a critical determinant of health.

But as recent evidence shows, even renting is unaffordable for some, despite working full time.

It’s time we acknowledged the impact of structural issues on homelessness, including housing affordability and the job market, rather than blaming individual risk factors, such as substance use or mental health difficulties.

We also need to tailor support services for homeless people so they are suitable and affordable, as well as being close to family, friends and children’s schools.

Rachel D Zordan receives funding from St Vincent’s Health Australia.

Vijaya Sundararajan receives funding from St Vincent’s Research Endowment Fund.

Jessica L Mackelprang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Homelessness today sees workers and families with nowhere stable to live. No wonder their health is suffering – https://theconversation.com/homelessness-today-sees-workers-and-families-with-nowhere-stable-to-live-no-wonder-their-health-is-suffering-202955

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hugh Gundlach, Lecturer in Education, The University of Melbourne

Schools and students around Australia continue to face a teacher shortage.

This means some schools have gone back for term two unable to offer certain subjects. Some might have composite classes, larger classes or disrupted units of study.

This also means some students will not have the best possible chance at learning skills, developing a passion for a subject, or achieving their potential.

There are already several national and state policy moves to try to address the shortage and its potential causes. As part of these, teachers’ workloads, wellbeing, working conditions and pay have been raised as key factors.

Over the past five years, I have studied the career decisions of more than 1,000 Australian teachers across all school years.

At the moment, we are trying to solve the teacher shortage without all the key information. Here are four questions we need to answer to really address this issue.

1. Who is leaving?

We know the teacher shortage is an issue around the country, at all year levels. But beyond this, it’s hard to get specific details.

One point often lost in discussions about the teacher shortage is teachers are not a homogeneous group: they teach students from the first years of schooling to the last, and specialise in everything from languages to science to music.

This means vacant roles are also not homogeneous.

In the past ten years there has been concern about shortages of teachers in science, maths and languages, as well as early career teachers, male primary teachers and teachers in remote, rural and disadvantaged schools. Each of these groups will not necessarily be retained with the same strategy.

There is also a potential mismatch between the supply of teachers being trained in certain areas and the demand from schools.

So we need to know who is leaving and what is their expertise.

2. How do turnover numbers connect with reasons for leaving?

In the past, teacher turnover research has been dominated by large-scale reports with national data from the United States. These do not adequately connect teacher departures with the reasons for leaving, or necessarily reflect Australian trends.

Smaller studies are more common in Australia, especially those looking at teachers’ motivations and reasons for leaving. These often rely on hypothetical career intentions only, not real quitting behaviours.

This is not enough, as many teachers stay in schools and the profession despite an intention to leave. Decisions to leave are also not always planned.

Quitting can be based on time (such as the number of years’ service or after earning long-service leave), life stage (such as starting a family), contingencies (such as a promotion or raise), and impulsivity (such as interpersonal conflict).

We need to connect how and why teachers leave with who they are.

Read more:
Higher salaries might attract teachers but pay isn’t one of the top 10 reasons for leaving

3. Are teachers leaving or simply changing jobs?

In a systematic review of the past 40 years of teacher turnover research, I found the majority of past studies did not adequately distinguish between teachers who simply go to a different school, and those who leave the profession altogether.

We also need to know who is just moving schools and who is leaving the profession. Policy makers and schools can help develop understanding of shortages by tracking destinations of departing teachers and their reasons for leaving through data collection and exit interviews.

This helps work out whether there is a migration issue or an attrition issue.

The effect of a teacher’s absence on students’ learning and schools’ operations may be the same. But the shortage solutions are likely to differ for migration and attrition.

4. Are we losing ‘quality’ teachers?

In my research, I also reviewed more than 200 quantitative studies with data on teacher turnover and retention. Only one study had a measure of teacher quality.

We need to consider the quality of teachers who are leaving and staying. We should worry most about losing high-performing teachers, as opposed to those who were not a good fit for the profession or who left for personal reasons or reasons outside a school’s control.

We should also be most concerned with teachers who are high-performing, who leave due to a difficult environment. After all, teachers’ working environments are the students’ learning environments.

Involuntary retention of employees – those who want to leave but cannot or do not – is not necessarily preferred to a teacher shortage.

We want children’s teachers to be in the classroom because they are satisfied in their jobs and passionate about education and young people, not because they are incentivised by another force such as extra pay or a lack of other employment opportunities.

Read more:
Australian teachers are dissatisfied with their jobs but their sense of professional belonging is strong

What next?

A uniform approach to the teacher shortage will not work. Solving it requires matching up teacher types, quitting types and the reasons for leaving, with relevant initiatives for retention.

Collecting teacher turnover figures along with information such as year level taught, subject area, location, age, gender and years of experience will help.

Schools, school systems and governments should work together to create a fuller picture of who is leaving and why.

This article is based on research partially funded by the Victorian Department of Education and Training’s Strengthening Teachers Initiative, and the Australian Department of Education, Skills and Employment Research Training Program Fees Offset and Stipend.

– ref. We won’t solve the teacher shortage until we answer these 4 questions – https://theconversation.com/we-wont-solve-the-teacher-shortage-until-we-answer-these-4-questions-203843

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lorinda Cramer, Research Fellow, Australian Catholic University

Queen Charlotte captured viewers’ attention in the Netflix series Bridgerton as the snuff-sniffing, gossip-greedy, biracial wife of the “mad king” George III.

As the spin-off Queen Charlotte: A Bridgerton Story – billed as an “epic love story” – launches, just who was Charlotte? And why was she obsessed with Australia?

From German princess to British queen

Seventeen-year-old Princess Charlotte of Mecklenburg-Strelitz married George III in 1761, the year after his accession to the throne. She had been chosen, dispassionately, from a list of suitable wives for the young king.

Charlotte arrived in London from her northern German home speaking no English, though she would soon acquire it.

She brought with her a fascination of science – Charlotte adored botany – and the arts. A talented singer and harpsichord player, Charlotte would later be accompanied by a young Mozart.

She is also said to have brought the German tradition of the Christmas tree to Britain, with Queen Victoria making it popular.

Read more:
A story of legends, families and capitalism: a candid history of the Christmas tree

Charlotte and George III’s marriage was a success. Contemporaries spoke of their devotion to each other, unlike other kings who strayed.

They had 15 children, 13 living to adulthood. Two sons – George IV and William IV – would later be king. Their granddaughter, Victoria, served as the longest-reigning British monarch.

Some thought Charlotte dull, preferring domestic life to court. Others called her power-hungry as George III suffered a series of bouts of mental illness, possibly caused by the blood disorder porphyria, though this is still debated.

More recently, Charlotte’s ancestry has been examined, sparked by her “African features” in portraits by Allan Ramsay. As fascinating as this is, more historians are sceptical of the claim that Charlotte was Black than support it.

Charlotte and the natural world

Across the 57 years that Charlotte was queen consort, Britain undertook an ambitious program to expand its empire and further knowledge of the natural world.

In 1768, seven years after Charlotte married into the royal family, George III commissioned James Cook with an ambitious voyage of discovery: to view the transit of Venus in Tahiti, then search the oceans for the “undiscovered southern land”.

On a weather-beaten ship, Cook changed course to chart the eastern coastline of New Holland (Australia) in 1770. Across the four months that the Endeavour sailed up the coast, Joseph Banks – the naturalist and botanist who joined Cook’s voyage – collected plants and animals.

Banks returned to England with a staggering bounty of specimens, presenting them to Charlotte and George III shortly after. This launched the collection of Australian plants and animals across decades to follow.

Charlotte’s “cangaroos”

Charlotte penned an unusual passage in her diary in 1794. Describing some remarkable creatures that had been held beneath deck for months as they crossed the seas, then released into her menagerie, she wrote of glimpsing “the Young Cangeroo”.

“The Animal being of the Opossum kind Carries its Young in a Pouch”, Charlotte marvelled.

Banks and the Endeavour’s crew had been astonished from their first fleeting glimpse of the animals two decades earlier, likening them to greyhounds that flashed through the bush.

The kangaroos that later arrived in Britain alive – though many would not survive the crossing – symbolised power. They were coveted by the elite and other European rulers. Napoleon’s wife Josephine had kangaroos of her own.

Unlike anything seen before, Charlotte was awed by their tiny forelimbs and strong tail. She was fascinated by how kangaroos moved, hopping on their powerful hind legs.

She was especially intrigued by the kangaroo’s pouch. So were scientific men who studied the queen’s kangaroos, attempting to unravel the mystery of how they reproduced and cared for their young.

So successfully did Charlotte’s prized kangaroos breed that her flock grew to 20.

Charlotte’s Australian plants

As Charlotte’s kangaroos hopped through her menagerie, the neighbouring Royal Gardens at Kew became the storehouse for plants from across the empire.

Banks, then Kew’s de facto director, encouraged his global networks to collect for the queen. To the second New South Wales governor, John Hunter, Banks urged:

[…]when you make your excursions or when you send parties into new districts, you will not forget that Kew Garden is the first in Europe & that its Royal Master & Mistress never fail to receive personal satisfaction from every Plant introduced there from foreign parts.

The year before, Banks had assessed a remarkable herbarium offered to Charlotte that included rare Australian specimens. Amassed by French botanist Jacques Labillardière, then seized during the French Revolutionary Wars, the gift was not to be. Returned to Labillardière, he used the specimens to write the most comprehensive description of Australia’s flora.

Death of the queen

Charlotte remained queen until her death in 1818. It took months for the news to reach Australia.

When it did, the Hobart Town Gazette declared that Britain’s loss “will be not less felt in its remotest Dependencies”.

The settlement mourned Charlotte by firing guns, flying flags at half-mast and tolling church bells, though she had never set foot on Australian soil.

Lorinda Cramer receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Queen Charlotte has her own Bridgerton spinoff on Netflix – but who was she really? And why was she obsessed with Australia? – https://theconversation.com/queen-charlotte-has-her-own-bridgerton-spinoff-on-netflix-but-who-was-she-really-and-why-was-she-obsessed-with-australia-200077

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Scarlett Howard, Lecturer, School of Biological Sciences, Monash University

Humans make decisions using statistical information every day. Imagine you’re selecting a packet of jellybeans. If you prefer red jellybeans, you will probably try to find a packet that shows the most red (and less of the dreaded black ones) through the small window.

Since you can’t see all the jellybeans at once, you’re using statistical reasoning to make an informed decision. Even infants have this capability.

And as it turns out, humans aren’t alone in using statistical inferences to make decisions. Great apes, long-tailed macaques and keas have all been shown to use the relative frequencies of items to predict sampling events.

Now a new study has added giraffes to this list. The research, published today in Scientific Reports, shows giraffes can use statistical inferences to increase their likelihood of receiving carrot slices rather than zucchini – much like a human picking jellybeans.

Brain size and statistical skills

Until now, primates and birds were the only animals to show evidence of statistical reasoning. Both are considered to have large brains relative to body size, which is often linked with higher intelligence.

Researchers at the University of Barcelona, University of Leipzig, and Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology wanted to test whether an animal with a small brain relative to its body size could perform statistical reasoning.

Giraffes were an ideal choice. They have already demonstrated an ability to perform quantity discrimination (being able to tell a larger amount of items from a smaller amount), and their social systems and dietary breadth have been linked with the emergence of complex cognition.

Read more:
Polly knows probability: this parrot can predict the chances of something happening

How does a giraffe demonstrate statistical reasoning?

As it turns out, giraffes love carrots but have only a lukewarm appreciation for zucchinis, making these foods ideal to use in a statistical reasoning task.

Working with four giraffes, the researchers placed different proportions of carrot and zucchini slices into transparent containers to test if the giraffes could predict a higher likelihood of receiving a carrot in three tests of different treat quantities.

Each test consisted of 20 trials in which a researcher selected a piece of food from each container without showing the giraffe. The giraffe then touched the hand it wanted to eat from, using only the information it had from the containers.

The giraffes were reliably able to select the correct container in the trials of the first test, wherein the correct choice had both a higher quantity of carrots and lower quantity of zucchini slices.

In the second test, the quantity of carrots was the same in both containers, but the correct choice had fewer zucchini slices. Again, the giraffes were able to select correctly.

In the third test, the quantity of zucchini slices remained the same, but the correct container had a larger quantity of carrots. Yet again the giraffes chose correctly.

The combined results informed the researchers whether giraffes were using relative frequencies (statistical reasoning) or simply comparing absolute quantities of their preferred or non-preferred food.

Since the giraffes succeeded in all three tests, the researchers concluded they had used statistical inferences. If the giraffes had only been looking at the absolute quantities of the carrots, they would have succeeded in the first and second tests only, and failed the third.

Do you need a large brain for statistical reasoning?

Evidence of statistical reasoning in giraffes suggests relatively large brains are not required to evolve complex statistical skills – at least in vertebrates (animals with backbones). Furthermore, the authors propose the ability to make statistical inferences may actually be widespread in the animal kingdom.

The question now is: how many other animals with small brains relative to their body size could also succeed in this task?

Read more:
One, then some: how to count like a bee

Scarlett Howard received funding from Australian Government Research Training Program (RTP) Scholarship, RMIT University, Fyssen Foundation, L’Oreal-UNESCO for Women in Science Young Talents French Award, and Deakin University. She is affiliated with Pint of Science Australia as the Media Manager volunteer.

– ref. Research shows giraffes can use statistical reasoning. They’re the first animal with a relatively small brain known to do this – https://theconversation.com/research-shows-giraffes-can-use-statistical-reasoning-theyre-the-first-animal-with-a-relatively-small-brain-known-to-do-this-204808

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The unpopular ParentsNext program is to be scrapped by the Albanese government from July 1 next year.

In the meantime, compulsory requirements for participants in the program, introduced by the Coalition government, are to be paused.

Abolishing ParentsNext was recommended by the government’s Economic Inclusion Advisory Committee and its Women’s Economic Equality Taskforce.

The Minister for Women, Katy Gallagher, and the Employment Minister, Tony Burke, said women around the country had been telling the government the program “is punitive, counterproductive and causes harm”.

Under the program, originally conceived as an attempt to help very young and vulnerable single mothers, participants have been required to attend appointments, negotiate participation plans, and report on agreed activities. If they fail to do what is required, they can have their benefits suspended.

The program was rolled out for women with children under six, with the Coalition government saying it would benefit those at risk of long term welfare dependency. The plan was to assist these parents prepare for jobs by the time their children went to school.

The welfare sector and a recent parliamentary inquiry have criticised the program. The inquiry said it was “locked into a punitive frame and does too much harm for the good it also does”.

The inquiry, which was set up by Burke, found the program was “polarising”.

“Numerous parents we met with explained that ParentsNext has helped them to build confidence, connect with employers, and find paid work. Yet many others think it’s something close to evil and must be scrapped, describing the compliance process as re-traumatising and akin to coercive control,” the committee chair, Labor’s Julian Hill. said in his forward to the inquiry’s report. “ParentsNext is not as bad as many say, but not as great as others claim.”

The inquiry recommended the program be scrapped and replaced with “a supportive pre-vocational service developed via a co-design process”. It said that in the interim the present program should have its onerous elements removed.

Gallagher and Burke said in a statement that at the election Labor “committed to listen to women’s experiences and make decisions that make their lives better and fairer”.

The women’s taskforce said ParentsNext should be replaced by “a new evidence-based program co-designed with young parents, and based in principles of encouragement, support, flexibility and meeting their needs”.

In another measure for women, next week’s budget is set to liberalise the eligibility for the single parent payment. At present a single mother loses this when her youngest child turns eight. She then has to go on JobSeeker, which is paid at a much lower rate. The new cut off point could be when the youngest child turns 13 or 14.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Controversial ParentsNext program to be scrapped next year – https://theconversation.com/controversial-parentsnext-program-to-be-scrapped-next-year-205037

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The timing of history. How Anglophile and monarchist Tony Abbott would love to have been the prime minister attending the coronation. To say nothing of John Howard, a key figure in fending off an Australian republic in 1999.

Instead it is Anthony Albanese in London, explaining on British television how he, a leader dedicated to trying to make our country a republic, is happy to be affirming allegiance to its new head of state.

Albanese has not been doing a bad job of smoothing any perceived contradiction, once again showing he can be a man for all occasions, some of them challenging.

In his hour-long interview with conservative Sky broadcaster Piers Morgan (a surprising appearance in itself) Albanese navigated some awkward questions, retold his familiar childhood story (with detail about finding his father), which Morgan appeared to find fascinating, and juggled his republicanism with upholding Australia’s present loyalty to King Charles.

While vague about timing (we know he wants a republic referendum in a second term) Albanese said that when there was a public demand for another vote, “I’m sure a vote will be held”, but it wasn’t imminent.

Albanese notably reaffirmed his preference for “an appointed head of state”, referring to “some process whereby democratically elected institutions, in the House of Representatives and the Senate, have a say in that”.

Read more:
Nine things you should know about a potential Australian republic

Division among republicans over the model (having the president appointed by the parliament versus being popularly elected) helped sink the 1999 vote. In future, the pressure would be for a popularly elected model. The challenge for Labor, if and when it gets to a referendum, would be to deal with this demand, but avoid a model of potentially competing power centres.

While Albanese (who lands back in Australia on budget eve) basks in the international limelight, at home Treasurer Jim Chalmers this week has been feeling the heat of the spotlight.

In current politics, the days before a budget are as orchestrated by the government as budget day itself. What you read and hear about the measures are not “leaks” but so-called “drops” to the media, designed for a flow of good news ahead of time (or sometimes getting bad news out of the way).

More rarely there are genuine leaks – a journalist gets a real scoop, something the government didn’t intend to be out that day. Such was the Seven Network’s story of an anticipated rise in JobSeeker for people 55 and over (those 60-plus who’ve been out of work for nine months already get a higher rate).

Chalmers would not confirm the accuracy of the leak, but he put up a spirited defence of the case for such a measure, which was taken as a tick. One of his arguments is that it would particularly help women, with many older unemployed women especially vulnerable. Assisting them also fits well with Labor’s gendered lens.

Inevitably, however, there was an immediate backlash from those speaking up for the young. The debate became a microcosm of the government’s wider problem with this budget, as Chalmers has sought to balance the need for restraint (reinforced by the Reserve Bank’s interest rate rise this week) with the strong calls for the government to meet its oft-repeated election commitment to “not leave people behind”. Albanese told Morgan: “The philosophy I took to the election was two parts, no one held back and no one left behind.”

Read more:
Government to spend $11.3 billion over four years to fund 15% pay rise for aged care workers

We’ve seen in this intense tug of war both the influence of the crossbench and of the usually compliant caucus.

It was ACT independent senator David Pocock who secured (as part of a deal to pass legislation) the economic inclusion advisory committee that recommended a big increase in JobSeeker for everyone. A large number of Labor backbenchers publicly joined the call, adding to the squeeze on the government.

The budget will contain not just some welfare initiatives, including for single mothers, but other measures to address the cost-of-living crisis. The reaction to it can be expected to come from various directions.

The assault from the left will say that the government hasn’t done enough. Leaving “nobody behind” is a very subjective proposition. When it comes to attack, this budget is made for the Greens. The minor party has emerged as arguably more effective as an “opposition” voice than the official opposition (this is separate from a judgment on the content of what the Greens say). And Labor knows this is dangerous in the longer term, given the Greens are eating away at a few seats in the lower house.

For the Coalition, finding a length and line in responding to the budget could be trickier. Demanding more be done on welfare is not the Coalition’s bag. It will no doubt say not enough attention is being paid to the cost of living. But any suggestion that the budget should have spent more than whatever it does spend will undermine the Coalition argument about restraint.

Read more:
Word from The Hill: Another rate rise, higher tax on cigarettes, and likely JobSeeker boost for over-55s

If, as speculated, the budget predicts a 2022-23 surplus, that further complicates the opposition’s reaction. The Coalition is stymied, whether it attacks from the right or (less likely) the left.

Depending on its precise crafting, the budget could be a slippery beast for the opposition to handle. Meanwhile Peter Dutton faces his own personal test next week.

In theory, an opposition leader’s budget reply this early in the term shouldn’t be of great moment. But Dutton is under the pump, with bad polling numbers and divided ranks, and so the occasion will matter.

When he rises in the House of Representatives on Thursday night, Dutton will require both negative and positive messages.

The difficulty of his task will depend partly on how the budget has been received. Beyond that, Dutton needs to unveil something substantial in policy terms, filling at least a corner of the Coalition’s current policy vacuum.

Not that this is easy. The Coalition can’t afford to make itself the story in a bad way. It’s already done this on the Voice.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Grattan on Friday: Albanese enjoys London limelight while Chalmers sweats in budget spotlight – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-albanese-enjoys-london-limelight-while-chalmers-sweats-in-budget-spotlight-205022

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Greg Austin, Adjunct Professor, Australia-China Relations Institute, University of Technology Sydney

Australia doesn’t need to wait ten or 20 years for its new submarines, or for long-range missiles, to project effective military power against China.

It has the ability to use its cyber forces to strike strategic targets inside China now, or for the sake of deterrence, to hold out that threat.

Cyber attacks are aimed at breaking into enemy military networks to disrupt or disable their systems. They can be used against a variety of weapons and communications systems.

Read more:
Russia is using an onslaught of cyber attacks to undermine Ukraine’s defence capabilities

Cyber forces are now an integral part of a country’s strike capability in wartime. The United States is even now planning wartime cyber attacks against China, should they be needed. According to 2018 figures, the Americans have a force of around 240,000 defence personnel and contractors in place to contribute to cyber defence and cyber attack, with up to one-third likely available to support the latter.

In the event of war, these US cyber attacks could be sustained across the full range of Chinese war capacity. The aim would be to gain what’s called “decision dominance”. This is the “disintegration” of China’s systems and decision-making, “thereby defeating their offensive capabilities” – if we can interpret remarks of the former commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Philip Davidson, to be a reference to China.

Australia has been much more guarded in discussing cyber offence than the US, but the two allies are in step. Canberra is in the process of tripling the size of its offensive cyber forces under Project Redspice, announced last year.

It could attack military command and control assets anywhere in China in the event of war. Softer targets might include critical national infrastructure, such as the energy grid supporting the war effort.

Australia’s cyber force will remain small compared with the US. But it can also call on private domestic or foreign corporations to design attack packages against China, as the US does.

Read more:
Budget 2022: $9.9 billion towards cyber security aims to make Australia a key ‘offensive’ cyber player

Australia is aiming for world-class offensive options in cyberspace. The AUKUS allies coordinate closely together on cyber operations, and this area of activity is a prime focus for the new grouping.

In 2020, the United Kingdom set up a new organisation, its National Cyber Force, dedicated to offensive strike operations.

As part of this “cyber three” alliance with the US and UK, Australia’s cyber force will likely remain the country’s most powerful strike capability against China for decades to come.

China’s cyber security weakness

Of course, success isn’t assured with cyber attacks. But causing disruption on a significant scale can be achieved with a highly focused effort across all phases of offensive cyber operations, especially in coordination with our allies.

The most important phase is the first one: ensuring up-to-date intelligence on the other side’s systems. The effort put into cyber intelligence against China’s armed forces is actually the foundation of cyber offensive teams, even if the intelligence people aren’t counted as having an “offensive” role.

China is adept at cyber offence. But contrary to popular belief, cyber security isn’t a strong point for China, and this makes it particularly vulnerable to attack in wartime. The International Institute for Strategic Studies has assessed that China has certain fundamental weaknesses that will take many years to overcome, including in its cyber security industry, education and policy.

Chinese leaders believe they’re well behind the US and allies in terms of military cyber capability. This will likely constrain their choices about starting any war over Taiwan.

Political sensitivities?

There’s no need for Australia to be shy about this offensive capability against China on political grounds, because China is planning to do the same against us in the event of war.

China is already conducting cyber espionage on Australia and other countries in preparation for a major crisis. It’s almost certainly developing capabilities to disable enemy military systems and infrastructure if needed.

Defence Minister Richard Marles recently restated the long-held view that the more offensive capabilities we have, for example through submarines, the more the country can contribute to allied deterrence of potential aggressors.

Read more:
Australia is under sustained cyber attack, warns the government. What’s going on, and what should businesses do?

Australian political leaders must prioritise the military’s ability to attack targets in China at scale, in the unlikely event of war. And leaders need to ensure cyber forces have more highly trained people dedicated to this task and a more powerful domestic cyber industry.

For military and political leaders to go down this path more robustly, the Australian Defence Force will also need to reassess the military balance of power in the Asia-Pacific to take account of the US and its allies’ cyber superiority over China.

This might also allow Australians to feel more secure about possible Chinese military threats. The choices Chinese leaders might make in provoking a crisis will be shaped by their view that their armed forces aren’t as competitive in this dimension of US and allied military power.

Greg Austin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Deterring China isn’t all about submarines. Australia’s ‘cyber offence’ might be its most potent weapon – https://theconversation.com/deterring-china-isnt-all-about-submarines-australias-cyber-offence-might-be-its-most-potent-weapon-204749

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Blakers, Professor of Engineering, Australian National University

The first power from the Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro project may not be delivered until 2028, it was revealed yesterday, triggering a fresh round of criticism over the controversial project.

The delay is undoubtedly inconvenient. But, despite speculation, the hold-up won’t noticeably slow the transition to renewable energy. The shift is driven by the compelling price advantage of solar and wind over coal and gas.

And in my view, we shouldn’t get too obsessed about exactly when Snowy 2.0 will be finished, or whether it costs more than first envisaged. In huge projects such as these, delays and cost blowouts are to be expected. And Snowy 2.0 offers us many lessons that will benefit subsequent pumped hydro projects.

I’m not an apologist for Snowy 2.0. I would have preferred it wasn’t built in a national park. But Australia’s renewable energy transformation will require a huge amount of energy storage – and the Snowy extension is an important part of the mix.

A big deal for powering Australia

Federal government-owned Snowy Hydro on Wednesday said Snowy 2.0 may not begin initial operation until the second half 2028 and may not be fully online until December 2029. It is also likely to suffer further cost blowouts beyond its current price tag of A$5.9 billion.

The project was originally costed at $2 billion and was expected to start operating in 2021.

In a statement, Snowy Hydro attributed the latest delay to COVID-19, global supply chain disruption, technical complications and geological issues.

Snowy 2.0 is the biggest energy storage project under construction in Australia. Pumped hydro storage involves two small reservoirs spaced a few kilometres apart, one built 400-800 metres higher than the other, with tunnels connecting them.

On sunny and windy days, electricity is stored by pumping water up to the higher reservoir. Later, when energy is needed, the water is released downhill through the turbine to produce electricity. The same water goes up and down the hill for the life of the project.

The Albanese government has set a national target of 82% renewable electricity by 2030 – most from solar and wind. These are intermittent energy sources, meaning they sometimes produce more energy than we need, and sometimes less. Energy storage helps smooth bumps in supply.

Solar and wind energy generation in the national electricity market meets about one-third of demand, up from 1% in 2009 and 9% in 2017. So at the moment, we don’t need much energy storage because existing coal, gas and hydroelectric power stations still help balance electricity demand.

But by 2028, solar and wind are expected to generate about 60% of electricity in the market. By then, many more coal plants will have closed, and we’ll need other ways to balance supply and demand. That’s where Snowy 2.0 and other projects come in.

A suite of options needed

So how do we make sure Australia’s electricity supplies remain reliable throughout the renewable energy transition? With a suite of technologies and projects.

The top priority is lots of new transmission infrastructure – mostly high-voltage cables and associated towers, as well as transformers.

This infrastructure is needed to move power generated by new solar and wind projects in rural areas to the cities, and also between states.

Importantly, strong energy transmission between states hugely reduces the need for energy storage by smoothing out local weather. If it’s a wet, windless week in Victoria, electricity can be sent from New South Wales and South Australia. The following week, Victoria might return the favour.

Many other current and future options exist to balance out electricity supplies. They include:

• off-river pumped hydro
• grid-scale batteries
• hot water storage tanks in homes and factories
• high temperature thermal storage in factories to displace gas furnaces
• activities to reduce electricity demand at peak times (known as demand management)
• legacy gas turbines operating only occasionally
• electric vehicle batteries.

The Snowy 2.0 delays mean other storage methods will take a stronger role in the interim.

Read more:
What is the electricity transmission system, and why does it need fixing?

Pumped hydro vs the alternatives

Grid-scale batteries are useful for short-term energy storage – seconds, minutes and hours.

Several big battery projects are being deployed in Australia. This includes a project by German energy company RWE, which was just awarded a major NSW government contract. It will generate 50 megawatts of power continuously for eight hours, and so has an energy storage capacity of 400 megawatt-hours.

But pumped hydro excels at overnight and longer energy storage. Globally, pumped hydro constitutes about 95% of electricity storage.

Australia has about 5,500 potential pumped hydro sites. Since we only need ten or 20 pumped hydro systems, we can afford to be very choosy.

Australia has three operating pumped hydro energy storage systems. Two are under construction, including Snowy 2.0, and a dozen others are being planned including big systems in Queensland and Tasmania.

Pumped hydro uses water, whereas batteries use far more expensive electrochemicals. And hydro systems last much longer than big batteries. It’s not a question of choosing between batteries and pumped hydro. We need both.

Snowy 2.0 will have the capacity to generate 2,000 megawatts of continuous power for a whole week, and so will provide about 350,000 megawatt-hours of storage.

This is 40 times more power capacity than the 50 megawatt RWE battery, and about 900 times the energy storage.

The Pioneer-Burdekin pumped hydro system being developed in Queensland will be able to generate 5,000 megawatts of power for 24 hours. This is 100 times more power and 300 times more energy storage than the RWE big battery.

What about the cost?

Upwards of $6 billion is not an insubstantial amount of money. But Snowy 2.0 would have been a bargain if it was completed for $2 billion. And even at, say, $9 billion, the project is still small compared to the $17 billion Australia spends collectively each year on rooftop solar, windfarms, solar farms, electricity storage and powerlines.

The decision to locate Snowy 2.0 in a national park has been intensely criticised. Indeed, my colleagues and I recently identified several attractive alternative sites for 500,000 megawatt-hour pumped hydro projects just a few kilometres west of Snowy 2.0, outside national parks, which you can see in this interactive map. Each would require only a short tunnel and a single new reservoir.

However, at the time the Turnbull government committed to Snowy 2.0, it was the only large-scale storage option on the table. And it’s now fairly far down the construction track.

Read more:
Snowy 2.0 threatens to pollute our rivers and wipe out native fish

Snowy 2.0 is worth doing

Solar and wind could provide virtually all future energy both in Australia and globally.

This would eliminate three-quarters of Australia’s greenhouse emissions. But it requires a doubling of electricity generation, supported by up to one million megawatt-hours of energy storage.

So for the sake of the renewables transition, let’s hope Snowy 2.0’s technical and financial difficulties are resolved.

Read more:
Batteries of gravity and water: we found 1,500 new pumped hydro sites next to existing reservoirs

Andrew Blakers receives funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and DFAT

– ref. I’m not an apologist for the Snowy 2.0 hydro scheme – but let’s not obsess over the delays and cost blowouts – https://theconversation.com/im-not-an-apologist-for-the-snowy-2-0-hydro-scheme-but-lets-not-obsess-over-the-delays-and-cost-blowouts-204915

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Phill Cassey, Head, Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Adelaide

The internet has made it easier for people to buy and sell a huge variety of wildlife – from orchids, cacti and fungi to thousands of birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians and fish, as well as insects, corals and other invertebrates.

But alongside legal trade in wildlife, there’s a dark twin – illegal trading of wildlife. Endangered birds with very few left in the wild. Horns sawn off shot rhinos. The illegal wildlife trade is a blight. It puts yet more pressure on nature, adds to biodiversity loss and threatens biosecurity, sustainable development and human wellbeing globally.

In our new research, we probed the dark web – the secretive section of the internet deliberately set up out of view of search engines. Most people associate the dark web with illicit drug marketplaces. We wanted to see what types of wildlife were being sold there.

The result? Across 51 dark web marketplaces, we found 153 species being sold. These were almost entirely plants and fungi with psychoactive effects, indicating they are part of the well-known dark web drug trade. There were only a small number of advertisements offering vertebrates such as the infamous Colorado River toad, which faces poaching pressure because its skin secretes psychoactive toxins as a defence.

Why aren’t traders in illegal wildlife using the dark web? Mainly because the trade in illegally traded animals and animal parts is not hidden – it’s all over the open internet. For instance, the frog toxin kambo used in the ritual that killed a Mullumbimby woman in 2019 is still sold openly.

What was being sold on the dark web?

We found over 3,000 advertisements selling wildlife species on dark web marketplaces between 2014 and 2020. We searched these marketplaces for keywords relating to wildlife trade and species names.

What was for sale? Of the 153 species we found, we verified 68 as containing psychoactive chemicals.

The most commonly traded species was a South American tree Mimosa tenuiflora, commonly known as jurema preta, whose bark contains an extremely potent hallucinogen, DMT. Plants made up most of the species being sold, with many coming from Central and Southern America.

We also found 19 species of Psilocybe fungi being sold.

Read more:
‘Astonishing’: global demand for exotic pets is driving a massive trade in unprotected wildlife

Many species were being sold for their purported medical properties, as well a small number of species being sold for clothing, decoration or as pets.

Many of the animals we found on the dark web have a long history of being illegally traded, such as live African grey parrots, as well as elephant ivory, rhino horn, and the teeth and skins of tigers and lions.

We also found small amounts of less commonly documented wildlife, including the Goliath beetle, Chinese golden scorpion and Japanese sea cucumber.

The illegal wildlife trade is hard to stop

Globally, the wildlife trade is regulated by the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). But the regulated market is just a fraction of the whole. To date, CITES protects less than 5% of traded species. The number of species traded live outnumbers the regulated trade by at least three times, according to some estimates.

To date, there have been few effective disincentives to stop traffickers from selling illegal wildlife online. Punishments for convicted wildlife traffickers are not effective, with Australian traffickers continuing to harvest animals even after being caught.

Efforts to combat wildlife trafficking online are increasing. One positive recent initiative is the End Wildlife Trafficking Online coalition. It’s a collaboration between animal NGOs and online platforms like Facebook, Alibaba and eBay aimed at rooting out online trafficking.

While clamping down on illicit open web trade is crucial, crackdowns here make it more likely that a wider range of wildlife will surface on the dark web.

What can be done?

Australia and all other nations that have signed up to CITES have a responsibility to keep track of internet-based wildlife trade. At recent CITES conferences resolutions were made to track and report all internet trade – including on the dark web – in an effort to boost monitoring and enforcement of wildlife trafficked online.

One stumbling block is the legality of online trade, which depends on factors such as the laws of the country or countries involved and whether the sale actually took place.

To stop the trafficking of iconic Australian species such as shingleback lizards and red-tailed black cockatoos, authorities here have to monitor what native species are being bought and sold online, as well as the species trafficked into and through Australia.

Since 2019 we have been monitoring the wildlife trade in Australia, drawing data from over 80 websites and forums.

Datasets like this will be vital in monitoring and combating internet-facilitated wildlife crime as it continues to grow – especially if enforcement drives traffickers to harder-to-access parts of the internet like the dark web.

Read more:
New exposé of Australia’s exotic pet trade shows an alarming proliferation of alien, threatened and illegal species

Phill Cassey receives funding from the Australian Research Council and previously the Centre for Invasive Species Solutions.

Adam Toomes receives funding from the Australian Research Council and previously the Centre for Invasive Species Solutions.

Charlotte Lassaline previously received funding from the Centre for Invasive Species Solutions.

Freyja Watters receives funding from an Adelaide University Postgraduate Research Scholarship.

Jacob Maher previously received funding from the Centre for Invasive Species Solutions. He is affiliated with the National Tertiary Education Union.

Oliver C. Stringham previously received funding from the Centre for Invasive Species Solutions.

– ref. Lickable toads and magic mushrooms: wildlife traded on the dark web is the kind that gets you high – https://theconversation.com/lickable-toads-and-magic-mushrooms-wildlife-traded-on-the-dark-web-is-the-kind-that-gets-you-high-201180

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendan Walker-Munro, Senior Research Fellow, The University of Queensland

Two weeks ago, 55-year-old Sydney businessman Alexander Csergo was arrested on charges of “recklessly” engaging in foreign interference.

Csergo’s case reads like a spy novel. He allegedly met two Chinese people he knew as “Ken” and “Evelyn” in empty cafes in Shanghai, taking cash and agreeing to write reports for them about Australian defence, economic and security arrangements.

Csergo’s barrister, Bernard Collaery, has argued that he is innocent.

Collaery has some skin in the national security game. In 2018, he was charged with conspiring to release classified information after he allegedly asked a client (an ex-spy known only as Witness K) for information regarding an Australian spying operation. It wasn’t until last year that Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus dropped those charges.

Csergo’s defence is that he only accessed publicly available material. He claims he cooperated with police, and even turned over his devices to the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) to prove his innocence.

Putting aside Csergo’s guilt or innocence, his case does raise an interesting question: what does Australia’s raft of new foreign interference laws mean for people who deal in open-source information, for example, academics, analysts or journalists?

Could you be breaking the law by doing the “wrong” Google search and posting your results online?

What does the law say?

In 2018, the federal government overhauled Australia’s national security laws in an attempt to address the growing threat posed by foreign actors. This overhaul included the introduction of nine novel offences for foreign interference.

The new offences include a crime of “reckless foreign interference” – the crime Csergo has been charged with. Csergo is only the second person to be charged since the new laws were introduced in 2018. He faces up to 15 years in prison if convicted.

Reckless foreign interference prohibits covert, deceptive or threatening conduct on behalf of, or in collaboration with, a “foreign principal”. The person must also have been reckless as to whether the conduct will:

• influence a political or governmental process or right,
• support intelligence activities of a foreign principal, or
• prejudice Australia’s national security.

Many of the terms used in this offence are wide-reaching or have not been clearly defined. This means the offence has the capacity to capture innocent people.

For example, covert or deceptive conduct could arise in relation to any part of a person’s actions, even if it only plays a minor role. So, for instance, an investigative journalist who uses hidden cameras or goes undercover to investigate a public interest story could be deemed as having acted covertly under the law.

Read more:
Why Australia’s tough national security laws cannot stop foreign interference in our elections

And a “foreign principal” could not only include foreign governments, but also entities that are owned, directed or controlled by foreign governments (such as media organisations, public universities or businesses). This means the offence has the capacity to capture, for example, Australian journalists, academics, researchers and businesspeople who work for or collaborate with an entity like this or its staff.

Lastly, the “recklessness” part of the law makes it extremely broad, criminalising people with a much lower level of personal culpability compared to offences that require an “intention” to commit a crime.

It is this element of the reckless foreign interference offence that could catch out people using open-source information online.

Could I inadvertently break the law?

It’s not a simple question to answer, but you might.

Ostensibly, this offence could be applied to anyone using open-source research to write an academic paper or policy report, provided it satisfies the other requirements under the law.

Even more at risk is “open source intelligence”, or the use of public information for intelligence assessments (think “market research” for spies). This is being used everywhere from the war in the Ukraine to combating hackers and identity thieves. Csergo’s case could set a precedent here.

Read more:
Amid warnings of ‘spy hives’, why isn’t Australia using its tough counter-espionage laws more?

One of the biggest pieces missing from Australia’s counter foreign interference strategy is an awareness and education effort on how these laws work in practice, as well as the “red flags” we should all look out for.

Individually, Australians also need to wake up to the reality that foreign interference is happening more often than we think.

Foreign interference, espionage and covert action aren’t abstract concepts. They’re real, and they’re happening in Australia. It is no coincidence the head of ASIO said our spy agencies are in “hand-to-hand combat”.

To be better protected, Australians should be alert, but not alarmed, and be more careful who they share information with. Just think like a spy: if I wanted to do something illegal with this information, what could I do?

The government also needs to consider whether these laws need to be clarified, reformed or even replaced. We will continue to need laws that prohibit other countries from interfering in our affairs. However, in doing so, we need to be careful we aren’t undermining the very freedoms Australia is known for.

Brendan Walker-Munro receives funding from the Australian Government through Trusted Autonomous Systems, a Defence Cooperative Research Centre funded through the Next Generation Technologies Fund. This article reflects the author’s view, and not those of any organisation, agency, or government.

This article was written in the author’s personal capacity as a PhD Candidate at The University of Queensland School of Law. It does not reflect the views of any organisation with which the author is affiliated.

– ref. Could using open-source information online get you arrested for foreign interference? – https://theconversation.com/could-using-open-source-information-online-get-you-arrested-for-foreign-interference-204548

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Olivier Salvado, Lead AI for Mission, CSIRO

Debates about AI often characterise it as a technology that has come to compete with human intelligence. Indeed, one of the most widely pronounced fears is that AI may achieve human-like intelligence and render humans obsolete in the process.

However, one of the world’s top AI scientists is now describing AI as a new form of intelligence – one that poses unique risks, and will therefore require unique solutions.

Geoffrey Hinton, a leading AI scientist and winner of the 2018 Turing Award, just stepped down from his role at Google to warn the world about the dangers of AI. He follows in the steps of more than 1,000 technology leaders who signed an open letter calling for a global halt on the development of advanced AI for at least six months.

Hinton’s argument is nuanced. While he does think AI has the capacity to become smarter than humans, he also proposes it should be thought of as an altogether different form of intelligence to our own.

Why Hinton’s ideas matter

Although experts have been raising red flags for months, Hinton’s decision to voice his concerns is significant.

Dubbed the “godfather of AI”, he has helped pioneer many of the methods underlying the modern AI systems we see today. His early work on neural networks led to him being one of three individuals awarded the 2018 Turing Award. And one of his students, Ilya Sutskever, went on to become co-founder of OpenAI, the organisation behind ChatGPT.

When Hinton speaks, the AI world listens. And if we’re to seriously consider his framing of AI as an intelligent non-human entity, one could argue we’ve been thinking about it all wrong.

The false equivalence trap

On one hand, large language model-based tools such as ChatGPT produce text that’s very similar to what humans write. ChatGPT even makes stuff up, or “hallucinates”, which Hinton points out is something humans do as well. But we risk being reductive when we consider such similarities a basis for comparing AI intelligence with human intelligence.

We can find a useful analogy in the invention of artificial flight. For thousands of years, humans tried to fly by imitating birds: flapping their arms with some contraption mimicking feathers. This didn’t work. Eventually, we realised fixed wings create uplift, using a different principle, and this heralded the invention of flight.

Planes are no better or worse than birds; they are different. They do different things and face different risks.

AI (and computation, for that matter) is a similar story. Large language models such as GPT-3 are comparable to human intelligence in many ways, but work differently. ChatGPT crunches vast swathes of text to predict the next word in a sentence. Humans take a different approach to forming sentences. Both are impressive.

Read more:
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How is AI intelligence unique?

Both AI experts and non-experts have long drawn a link between AI and human intelligence – not to mention the tendency to anthropomorphise AI. But AI is fundamentally different to us in several ways. As Hinton explains:

If you or I learn something and want to transfer that knowledge to someone else, we can’t just send them a copy […] But I can have 10,000 neural networks, each having their own experiences, and any of them can share what they learn instantly. That’s a huge difference. It’s as if there were 10,000 of us, and as soon as one person learns something, all of us know it.

AI outperforms humans on many tasks, including any task that relies on assembling patterns and information gleaned from large datasets. Humans are sluggishly slow in comparison, and have less than a fraction of AI’s memory.

Yet humans have the upper hand on some fronts. We make up for our poor memory and slow processing speed by using common sense and logic. We can quickly and easily learn how the world works, and use this knowledge to predict the likelihood of events. AI still struggles with this (although researchers are working on it).

Humans are also very energy-efficient, whereas AI requires powerful computers (especially for learning) that use orders of magnitude more energy than us. As Hinton puts it:

humans can imagine the future […] on a cup of coffee and a slice of toast.

Okay, so what if AI is different to us?

If AI is fundamentally a different intelligence to ours, then it follows that we can’t (or shouldn’t) compare it to ourselves.

A new intelligence presents new dangers to society and will require a paradigm shift in the way we talk about and manage AI systems. In particular, we may need to reassess the way we think about guarding against the risks of AI.

One of the basic questions that has dominated these debates is how to define AI. After all, AI is not binary; intelligence exists on a spectrum, and the spectrum for human intelligence may be very different from that for machine intelligence.

This very point was the downfall of one of the earliest attempts to regulate AI back in 2017 in New York, when auditors couldn’t agree on which systems should be classified as AI. Defining AI when designing regulation is very challenging

So perhaps we should focus less on defining AI in a binary fashion, and more on the specific consequences of AI-driven actions.

What risks are we facing?

The speed of AI uptake in industries has taken everyone by surprise, and some experts are worried about the future of work.

This week, IBM CEO Arvind Krishna announced the company could be replacing some 7,800 back-office jobs with AI in the next five years. We’ll need to adapt how we manage AI as it becomes increasingly deployed for tasks once completed by humans.

More worryingly, AI’s ability to generate fake text, images and video is leading us into a new age of information manipulation. Our current methods of dealing with human-generated misinformation won’t be enough to address it.

Read more:
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Hinton is also worried about the dangers of AI-driven autonomous weapons, and how bad actors may leverage them to commit all forms of atrocity.

These are just some examples of how AI – and specifically, different characteristics of AI – can bring risk to the human world. To regulate AI productively and proactively, we need to consider these specific characteristics, and not apply recipes designed for human intelligence.

The good news is humans have learnt to manage potentially harmful technologies before, and AI is no different.

If you’d like to hear more about the issues discussed in this article, check out the CSIRO’s Everyday AI podcast.

Olivier Salvado works for CSIRO and lead AI for CSIRO Missions, which receives funding from The Australian Commonwealth and funding bodies.

Jon Whittle works for CSIRO as Director of Data61, which receives funding from the Australian Government. Jon is also Chair of UNSW AI Institute’s Advisory Board.

– ref. AI pioneer Geoffrey Hinton says AI is a new form of intelligence unlike our own. Have we been getting it wrong this whole time? – https://theconversation.com/ai-pioneer-geoffrey-hinton-says-ai-is-a-new-form-of-intelligence-unlike-our-own-have-we-been-getting-it-wrong-this-whole-time-204911

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kobie Boshoff, Senior lecturer, Occupational Therapy, University of South Australia

The federal government and National Cabinet has committed to rebooting and fixing the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) for people with disabilities. It plans to invest more in the National Disability Insurance Agency (NDIA), which administers the scheme, and drive change to support participants better.

As part of these initiatives, the government has indicated a move towards prioritising evidence-based supports to ensure funds are appropriately and effectively spent. NDIS minister Bill Shorten promised “a renewed focus on evidence and data,” adding that he wanted to

[…] get rid of shoddy therapies that offer little to no value to participants or desperate parents.

The rhetoric raises important questions. How is “evidence” defined? And can it be usefully applied within the complex NDIS context?

Medical research origins

The term “evidence-based practice” comes from the medical field, mostly from research trials with a clear cause-and-effect relationship. A specific drug or treatment (termed “interventions”) might be given to certain subjects and then any changes are tracked with objective measurement tools, such as blood tests, improvements in health or changes in function.

Research evidence is ranked in a hierarchy to denote its reliability and significance. Expert opinion sits at the base, then case studies, then randomised control trials (in which subjects are randomly assigned to experimental or control groups) and systematic reviews (which look at the results of lots of different trials and studies combined) at the prestigious peak.

But this narrow idea of what evidence is can be problematic when applied to a complicated scheme like the NDIS.

Disability is different

Firstly, disability is not a medical condition. It is part of being human and affects everyone uniquely due to factors such as each person’s unique socio-, psychological and physical make-up and the context and environment they are in. Support services need to be tailored for each person and their circumstances.

This uniqueness of intervention and the multiple and often unpredictable benefits and outcomes of intervention makes measuring clear cause-and-effect relationships inaccurate or incomplete in many cases. This calls for a different approach to the definition of evidence.

To add to this complexity, each support service is unique in terms of set-up, context and resources available.

Finally, disability research has historically been overlooked and severely underfunded compared to medical research into drugs, detection or therapies. The quality and quantity of published research available is very limited.

3 things we can consider about supports

So, how can we judge NDIS supports and practice to ensure funds are appropriately spent?

Evidence within complex environments needs to incorporate:

1. Qualitative outcomes

The current focus on highly rigorously published research study outcomes, for example from Randomised Control Trails, should be complemented with qualitative research studies. These studies may involve fewer participants but incorporate the voices of people with disabilities. Participants can articulate their views on services provided, outcomes and benefits, and their preferences. Systematic reviews can then be formulated to survey and summarise quantitative and qualitative research studies.

2. NDIS participant feedback

Research takes a long time. Information can be gathered more quickly from NDIS participants that will reflect their choices, priorities, values, preferences and individual context. Service providers should be regularly surveying and monitoring their client groups. The NDIS Review is due to report in the coming months and they are also investing in a wellbeing measure and the government has developed a Disability Strategy Outcomes Framework to track and report improvements for people with disability.

3. Supports in context

Real-world supports don’t happen in a vacuum. To judge effectiveness and suitability we will need information about service provision. This might include the available resources to provide services (such as telecommunications access in remote areas of Australia), contexts (such as geographical or population demographics including culture and language), and organisational factors such as service delivery and set-up (for example, inter-disciplinary teams or sole-practitioner models).

Read more:
The NDIS is set for a reboot but we also need to reform disability services outside the scheme

Evidence-based recommendations in the real world

An example of how these three important components can inform evidence-based practice can be found in the recently released guidelines for supporting children with autism and their families.

Read more:
New national autism guideline will finally give families a roadmap for therapy decisions

Autism is the largest disability category for NDIS, with around one in three active NDIS participants receiving funding for the condition. The fresh guidelines include information from extensive systematic reviews, incorporate qualitative and quantitative research studies, and the voices of autistic people, families and service providers. The surrounding context of service provision – how and where supports are delivered in the real world – was described and applied to recommendations.

This broader view and application of evidence-based practice is more appropriate for the supports the NDIA provides funding for. However, these types of evidence sources are currently limited. We do not have them available for all disability groups or age groups.

Investments will need to be made to focus on developing these evidence sources and ensuring the government stays true to its commitment of working together with people with disability and the sector to provide “choice and control” and effective support.

Kobie Boshoff does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The government says NDIS supports should be ‘evidence-based’ – but can they be? – https://theconversation.com/the-government-says-ndis-supports-should-be-evidence-based-but-can-they-be-204763

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Archie Chapman, Senior Lecturer, School of IT and Electrical Engineering, The University of Queensland

There were an estimated 100 million individual solar photovoltaic (PV) panels in Australia at the end of 2022. We estimate this number will likely grow to over 2 billion if we are to meet Australia’s 2050 net-zero emissions target. This growth means Australia is facing a 450,000-tonne mountain of used PV panels by 2040.

Managing all those discarded PV panels will be a huge job. Rather than treating them as “waste”, though, these panels could be a source of social, environmental and economic value. Our new industry report outlines how we can realise that value.

PV panels contain a variety of valuable materials. The panels can also be put to new uses, such as on uninhabited community and sports club buildings, for agricultural irrigation pumps, or for camping and caravanning.

However, at present, they tend to follow a linear, “take, make, dispose” lifecycle. This results in many PV panels being sent to landfill or stockpiled. Much of their value is wasted.

Read more:
Stop removing your solar panels early, please. It’s creating a huge waste problem for Australia

What did the research look at?

The University of Queensland and Circular PV Alliance have assessed the market for used and surplus PV panels, with funding from Energy Consumers Australia. Our findings are in the report launched today at the Smart Energy Council Expo in Sydney.

Our goal was to understand potential customers and value streams for used PV panels. We also wished to identify market or policy barriers to reusing, repurposing and recycling these panels.

We reviewed the academic research on the topic and conducted a series of interviews. Thirteen organisations with diverse interests in solar energy and PV panel reuse and recycling participated. A series of recurrent themes emerged that indicate potential or perceived opportunities and challenges for PV panel reuse.

Read more:
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What did the research find?

Overall, there was broad concern among interviewees that PV panels are being decommissioned before the end of their productive lives. A few key reasons stood out:

• renewable energy certificates encourage PV investors to install new panels rather than extend the life of older panels, because the subsidy is paid in full on installation, rather than as power is generated

• low-quality PV products have a high failure rate

• an array that combines different PV panels can be limited by the lowest-performing panel.

These issues contribute to the already large amounts of discarded panels coming from solar farms, and warranty and insurance claims.

However, we also found reclaimed PV panels offer low-cost, clean energy options for households and community energy projects.

Read more:
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Even when not reusable, PV panels include valuable materials that can be recovered. The average silicon panel contains silver (47% of recycled materials value), aluminium (frame, 26%), silicon (cells, 11%), glass (8%) and copper (8%).

And PV panel recycling is becoming more efficient. This has led to better-quality outputs and higher recovery rates. For example, nano-silicon created by processing recovered silicon can sell for over A$44,000 per kilogram.

A shift towards viewing a PV panel as a valuable resource or asset, rather than “waste”, will improve both consumer and industry understanding of its inherent value, even when it’s not brand new.

Read more:
Solar is the cheapest power, and a literal light-bulb moment showed us we can cut costs and emissions even further

How do we turn ‘waste’ into an asset?

We can keep used PV panels out of landfill by treating them as an asset through a value-capture system. This will create a variety of benefits and opportunities.

The circular economy model loops the “take, make, reuse” phases into a self-sustaining cycle. It provides a foundation to grow markets for used PV panels. This will tap into consumer demands for credible and sustainable products and services.

There are already successful examples of similar solutions for other products in Australia and around the world. Australian examples include the National Television and Computer Recycling Scheme
and Tyre Stewardship Australia, as well as state-based beverage container deposit schemes.

So how do we set up a circular economy for PV panels? We found a combination of policies, regulations and commercial services can overcome the obstacles to reuse and recycling.

A consistent, national approach is needed to establish successful markets for used PV panels. Standards for testing and certifying these panels, as well as repair warranties, are essential to build consumer trust in this product.

Industry reporting and accreditation requirements as well as product traceability, so the reused and recycled panels can be accounted for, are all important elements of product stewardship and used PV panel markets.

Targeted engagement with a broader range of potential consumers, insurers and PV panel manufacturers will help overcome their perceived barriers to reusing panels.

Taken together, these actions are the building blocks of creating a circular economy for PV panels in Australia. The looming volumes of used panels and ever-increasing amount of solar energy being installed in Australia compel us to do this. Consumers, industry and the environment will all benefit.

The author acknowledges Megan Jones, Circular PV Alliance co-founder and director, for her contribution to this article.

Megan Jones, Circular PV Alliance co-founder and Director, was employed as a research assistant by The University of Queensland for the work discussed in this article and was an author of the industry report. Archie Chapman received funding from Energy Consumers Australia to conduct this research. He is affiliated with the Circular PV Alliance.

– ref. Australia is facing a 450,000-tonne mountain of used solar panels. Here’s how to turn it into a valuable asset – https://theconversation.com/australia-is-facing-a-450-000-tonne-mountain-of-used-solar-panels-heres-how-to-turn-it-into-a-valuable-asset-204792