Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bianca Baggiarini, Lecturer, Australian National University

Last week, reports emerged that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are using an artificial intelligence (AI) system called Habsora (Hebrew for “The Gospel”) to select targets in the war on Hamas in Gaza. The system has reportedly been used to find more targets for bombing, to link locations to Hamas operatives, and to estimate likely numbers of civilian deaths in advance.

What does it mean for AI targeting systems like this to be used in conflict? My research into the social, political and ethical implications of military use of remote and autonomous systems shows AI is already altering the character of war.

Militaries use remote and autonomous systems as “force multipliers” to increase the impact of their troops and protect their soldiers’ lives. AI systems can make soldiers more efficient, and are likely to enhance the speed and lethality of warfare – even as humans become less visible on the battlefield, instead gathering intelligence and targeting from afar.

When militaries can kill at will, with little risk to their own soldiers, will the current ethical thinking about war prevail? Or will the increasing use of AI also increase the dehumanisation of adversaries and the disconnect between wars and the societies in whose names they are fought?

AI in war

AI is having an impact at all levels of war, from “intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance” support, like the IDF’s Habsora system, through to “lethal autonomous weapons systems” that can choose and attack targets without human intervention.

These systems have the potential to reshape the character of war, making it easier to enter into a conflict. As complex and distributed systems, they may also make it more difficult to signal one’s intentions – or interpret those of an adversary – in the context of an escalating conflict.

To this end, AI can contribute to mis- or disinformation, creating and amplifying dangerous misunderstandings in times of war.

AI systems may increase the human tendency to trust suggestions from machines (this is highlighted by the Habsora system, named after the infallible word of God), opening up uncertainty over how far to trust autonomous systems. The boundaries of an AI system that interacts with other technologies and with people may not be clear, and there may be no way to know who or what has “authored” its outputs, no matter how objective and rational they may seem.

High-speed machine learning

Perhaps one of the most basic and important changes we are likely to see driven by AI is an increase in the speed of warfare. This may change how we understand military deterrence, which assumes humans are the primary actors and sources of intelligence and interaction in war.

Militaries and soldiers frame their decision-making through what is called the “OODA loop” (for observe, orient, decide, act). A faster OODA loop can help you outmanoeuvre your enemy. The goal is to avoid slowing down decisions through excessive deliberation, and instead to match the accelerating tempo of war.

So the use of AI is potentially justified on the basis it can interpret and synthesise huge amounts of data, processing it and delivering outputs at rates that far surpass human cognition.

But where is the space for ethical deliberation in an increasingly fast and data-centric OODA loop cycle happening at a safe distance from battle?

Israel’s targeting software is an example of this acceleration. A former head of the IDF has said that human intelligence analysts might produce 50 bombing targets in Gaza each year, but the Habsora system can produce 100 targets a day, along with real-time recommendations for which ones to attack.

How does the system produce these targets? It does so through probabilistic reasoning offered by machine learning algorithms.

Machine learning algorithms learn through data. They learn by seeking patterns in huge piles of data, and their success is contingent on the data’s quality and quantity. They make recommendations based on probabilities.

The probabilities are based on pattern-matching. If a person has enough similarities to other people labelled as an enemy combatant, they too may be labelled a combatant themselves.

The problem of AI enabled targeting at a distance

Some claim machine learning enables greater precision in targeting, which makes it easier to avoid harming innocent people and using a proportional amount of force. However, the idea of more precise targeting of airstrikes has not been successful in the past, as the high toll of declared and undeclared civilian casualties from the global war on terror shows.

Moreover, the difference between a combatant and a civilian is rarely self-evident. Even humans frequently cannot tell who is and is not a combatant.

Technology does not change this fundamental truth. Often social categories and concepts are not objective, but are contested or specific to time and place. But computer vision together with algorithms are more effective in predictable environments where concepts are objective, reasonably stable, and internally consistent.

Will AI make war worse?

We live in a time of unjust wars and military occupations, egregious violations of the rules of engagement, and an incipient arms race in the face of US–China rivalry. In this context, the inclusion of AI in war may add new complexities that exacerbate, rather than prevent, harm.

AI systems make it easier for actors in war to remain anonymous, and can render invisible the source of violence or the decisions which lead to it. In turn, we may see increasing disconnection between militaries, soldiers, and civilians, and the wars being fought in the name of the nation they serve.

And as AI grows more common in war, militaries will develop countermeasures to undermine it, creating a loop of escalating militarisation.

What now?

Can we control AI systems to head off a future in which warfare is driven by increasing reliance on technology underpinned by learning algorithms? Controlling AI development in any area, particularly via laws and regulations, has proven difficult.

Many suggest we need better laws to account for systems underpinned by machine learning, but even this is not straightforward. Machine learning algorithms are difficult to regulate.

Read more:
US military plans to unleash thousands of autonomous war robots over next two years

AI-enabled weapons may program and update themselves, evading legal requirements for certainty. The engineering maxim “software is never done” implies that the law may never match the speed of technological change.

The quantitative act of estimating likely numbers of civilian deaths in advance, which the Habsora system does, does not tell us much about the qualitative dimensions of targeting. Systems like Habsora in isolation cannot really tell us much about whether a strike would be ethical or legal (that is, whether it is proportionate, discriminate and necessary, among other considerations).

AI should support democratic ideals, not undermine them. Trust in governments, institutions, and militaries is eroding and needs to be restored if we plan to apply AI across a range of military practices. We need to deploy critical ethical and political analysis to interrogate emerging technologies and their effects so any form of military violence is considered to be the last resort.

Until then, machine learning algorithms are best kept separate from targeting practices. Unfortunately, the world’s armies are heading in the opposite direction.

Bianca Baggiarini does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Israel’s AI can produce 100 bombing targets a day in Gaza. Is this the future of war? – https://theconversation.com/israels-ai-can-produce-100-bombing-targets-a-day-in-gaza-is-this-the-future-of-war-219302

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Johan Lidberg, Associate Professor, School of Media, Film and Journalism, Monash University

The most significant recommendation in the Senate inquiry report on the functionality of the Commonwealth FOI system is this: move the federal Freedom of Information (FOI) function from the Office of the Australian Information Commissioner’s Office (OAIC) to the Commonwealth Ombudsman’s Office.

The inquiry was triggered by the resignation of the then FOI commissioner, Leo Hardiman, in March 2023, less than a year into a five-year term.

Hardiman cited severe governance and culture issues in the OAIC as the reasons for his resignation. In his detailed submission to the inquiry, he made it clear the FOI section was starved of funds and not able to do its job. Hardiman was also critical of the current Information Commissioner, Angelene Falk, pointing out, among other issues, that Falk prioritised the privacy fuctions over FOI.

Falk strongly disagrees with Hardiman’s points. However, in the report, the committee members accept Hardiman’s integrity reasons for resigning.

When the OAIC was created in 2010, hopes were high for a better-functioning federal access-to-information system. This was on the back of Kevin Rudd’s 2007 election promise of significant reforms.

Labor elder John Faulkner led the reform process. The reforms were indeed some of the most far-reaching we have seen since Australia’s first FOI Act was passed in 1982. At their core was the idea to co-locate the functions of the privacy commissioner and the FOI commissioner in one office, led by a third information commissioner.

Read more:
It’s time for the government to walk the talk on media freedom in Australia

Under inaugural Information Commissioner John McMillan, the OAIC got off to a good start. There were indications the information access culture had started to shift towards more openness and away from the secrecy that had been the norm until 2010.

When Tony Abbott was elected prime minister in 2013, he swiftly attempted to close down the OAIC. When this failed, the office was starved of funds to the point where there was no FOI commissioner appointed between 2014 to 2022. These eight years without an FOI commissioner clearly shifted the balance between privacy and FOI in the OAIC.

When Hardiman became FOI commissioner in March 2022, the damage to information access was apparent. The backlog of FOI reviews was huge. In his submission, Hardiman pointed out that, with the current funding, he saw no way of clearing the backlog.

Overall, the Senate inquiry report is surprisingly frank and far-reaching. In the recommendation section, the report concludes:

It is clear that the Commonwealth Freedom of Information (FOI) system is not working effectively and for some time has not functioned as it was intended.

The report makes 15 recommendations. Of these, in my view, the most important are:

• there should be an independent external review of the functionality of the OAIC
• funding to the FOI commissioner should be increased to clear the review backlog and enable the commissioner to function as intended
• there should be increased focus on access to personal information without having to use FOI requests.

These are all important points. Some of the legal tweaks to the act would, based on my research, have less effect on the overall functionality of the FOI system. My research team has shown time and again that a focus on information access culture is much more effective than legal changes.

In mid-2024 my team will publish a report comparing FOI culture in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. The project is large in scope, involving 96 government agencies in the three states, and based on interviews with 257 FOI officers and government agency executives. Our findings show, unequivocally, that lack of funding and resourcing of FOI teams in agencies is the greatest obstacle to functionality.

The Senate report does mention both resourcing and the culture of implementing FOI but does not, based on our research, pay enough attention to these crucial issues.

That said, the report should be commended for pointing to some immediate action that is badly needed, such as the external review of the OAIC. It’s disappointing the three-commissioner model appears to not work as intended. There are merits in co-locating privacy and FOI in the same office, but, for this to work, there needs to be a balance between these functions.

Read more:
Politics with Michelle Grattan: Rex Patrick on Freedom of Information and Australia’s submarines

The research is in on how to make access to information work well in Australia. It’s not rocket science, but it requires political will (which can at times be more complex than rocket science).

Based on our research, these are the three overarching areas to address when it comes to FOI:

• proper funding of FOI teams in government agencies
• creating proactive information release policies tailored to individual government agencies (that is, information should be released without the need for FOI requests)
• update records management in government agencies. This sounds boring, but it’s the base for both good governance and information access.

It will be interesting to see if the Albanese government will act on any of the recommendations in the Senate report. History shows that demanding far-reaching FOI in opposition is easy. Implementing it in government can be very hard.

Johan Lidberg receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Frank and far-reaching: Senate report recommends shake-up of the way freedom of information is handled – https://theconversation.com/frank-and-far-reaching-senate-report-recommends-shake-up-of-the-way-freedom-of-information-is-handled-219331

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Di Winkler, Adjunct Associate Professor, La Trobe University

A home – in the physical and emotional sense – is foundational to living an ordinary life with a feeling of inclusion. National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) participants with the highest support needs require housing and living services. Disability can make living in mainstream housing impossible for some people, or they may need housing where support can be efficiently and safely provided.

Nearly 41,000 NDIS participants receive seven-day, around-the-clock support. At an annual cost of A$8.8 billion and increasing at a rate of 7% each year, these supports represent one-quarter of the annual cost of the scheme.

Given the federal government’s 8% cost growth target, transforming disability housing and support in Australia is critical to the future of the NDIS.

Both the recent disability royal commission and NDIS review recommendations say big changes are needed so people with disability can choose from a range of quality housing and living services where they are free from abuse, neglect and exploitation.

Read more:
Recommendations to reboot the NDIS have finally been released. 5 experts react

Problems with group homes

The original intent of the NDIS market-based approach was to drive innovation and the design of new user-led models of support.

Group homes are still the predominant model of disability housing in Australia. The disability royal commission and a recent government report found people living in group homes are at significant risk of harm.

The NDIS review reported many NDIS participants receiving 24/7 supports have limited choice in where, how and with whom they live. Group homes do not deliver good outcomes and are not cost effective. In addition to the human toll, the yearly cost of violence, abuse, neglect and exploitation of Australians with disability is estimated to be $46 billion.

Pointing to a way forward

The NDIS review builds on earlier recommendations and outlines a suite of actions with the potential to transform disability housing in Australia. Central to this is the implementation of independent housing and living navigators for participants receiving 24/7 supports.

Most of these participants are currently on providers’ books. But in the current system there are no drivers for providing high quality or efficient support. And change is urgently needed for people living in old housing stock.

Proactive planning is needed to support people with disability who want to live in supported accommodation with peers, rather than ageing family members or carers.

A skilled and independent national workforce of housing navigators would systematically support NDIS participants to realise their human right to make an informed choice on where and with whom they live.

And if the NDIS partners with existing organisations and expertise to train and establish this network, it could be a quick win for government.

Timely implementation of an independent national workforce of housing navigators is also critical because they will support the collation of much-needed quality data on the housing and support needs and preferences of NDIS participants. Without it, the specialist disability accommodation market is building social infrastructure that is not fit for purpose and will be with us for the next 30 years.

What home looks like

Better quality data along with more flexible pricing could see new housing built in locations that help participants maintain their informal support networks. Friends, family and neighbours are critical for keeping people safe, quality outcomes and minimising lifetime care costs. NDIS participants are most at risk of harm when they live in closed settings and mostly only interact with people who are all paid by the one provider.

For some people with cognitive impairments, the opportunity to trial new living arrangements before they commit is essential.

Given the annual average investment of nearly $400,000 in 24/7 support, getting the match between the person and their living arrangement right is well worth the investment.

New housing and living solutions need to be both evidence-based and co-designed. Like government, people with disability want to get good value out of their NDIS plans and are frustrated by inefficiency and waste in the scheme.

We await detail on how housing and living support will be determined in a clear, fair and consistent way.

Success will see less segregation and more inclusive housing for people with disability. Some of the people currently receiving 24/7 support have the potential to move to mainstream housing if more accessible housing is made available. The NDIS review recommends a commitment from the remaining jurisdictions (New South Wales and Western Australia) to sign up to the Livable Housing Design Standards in the National Construction Code.

Read more:
What’s the difference between ‘reasonable and necessary’ and ‘foundational’ supports? Here’s what the NDIS review says

What to watch for

Innovative and individualised housing

The review builds on the royal commission findings and recommends an urgent shift away from group homes. No one should be forced to enter a living arrangement that is not of their choosing, including young people living in aged care.

How this might work in practice is unclear. The NDIS review recommendations state shared funding does not necessarily equate to living with others. It would be a missed opportunity if new NDIS legislation merely results in the proliferation of three-bedroom houses where NDIS participants are forced to live with two other people.

We hope to see innovative and individualised housing solutions that foster new cost-effective models of high quality and efficient shared support, including mobile attendant care and a diverse range of individualised living options.

New regulation

Practice standards that hold support providers accountable are urgently needed. The recommendation to separate housing providers from providers of support is critical to stop the commodification of some of the most vulnerable NDIS participants.

But we should also watch out for additional layers of regulation that add cost and complexity but do little to improve the lives of people with disability.

Read more:
‘It’s shown me how independent I can be’ – housing designed for people with disabilities reduces the help needed

Change is coming

The government has laid the foundations for change with new National Cabinet funding agreements and says it will start announcing reforms based on review recommendations in 2024. Smart implementation will see people with disability who are dependent on providers for their basic needs live free from abuse, neglect and violence.

New models of housing that foster independence and enable the delivery of efficient support are critical to containing rising costs and ensuring scheme sustainability.

Adequate housing is fundamental to unlocking the potential of people with disability who want to work, contribute to society and be part of the community.

Read more:
States agree to do more heavy lifting on disability, in exchange for extra health and GST funding

Dr Di Winkler is the CEO and Founder of the Summer Foundation. Summer Foundation is an industry partner on a La Trobe University led ARC Linkage Grant about measuring the outcomes of tenants who move to new SDA. Dr Winkler is also a volunteer director of a not for profit Specialist Disability Accommodation provider called Liverty Housing (formerly known as Summer Housing)

– ref. Taken together, the NDIS review and the royal commission recommendations could transform disability housing – https://theconversation.com/taken-together-the-ndis-review-and-the-royal-commission-recommendations-could-transform-disability-housing-216267

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Darren Roberts, Conjoint Associate Professor in clinical pharmacology and toxicology, St Vincent’s Healthcare Clinical Campus, UNSW Sydney

Red imported fire ants are a particularly nasty type of ant because they are aggressive, and inflict painful stings that may be life threatening. That’s in addition to being a serious threat to agriculture and biosecurity.

In recent weeks, we heard these ants had spread from Queensland, south into northern New South Wales.

Although their stings are rare in Australia, they can lead to a serious allergic reaction. Here’s what to do if you’ve been stung.

Read more:
Why red fire ants and yellow crazy ants have given themselves a green light to invade Australia

Which ants are we talking about?

Red imported fire ants (Solenopsis invicta) are native to South America but have been spreading across the world in contaminated soil.

The ants are 2-6 millimetres long and are a dark red-brown colour. They live in nests in the ground.

When a nest is disturbed, hundreds of ants come out and attack. Their jaws lock onto the skin and they arch their body to inject venom through a stinger on their abdomen. Each ant stings an average seven to eight times.

These ants sting millions of people a year in the United States.

Anyone who disturbs their nest is at risk of being stung. Even minor disturbances will cause the ants to surface and attack.

Overseas, people have been stung by ants that have formed rafts during heavy rainfall and flooding.

Read more:
From deadly jaws and enormous strength to mushroom farming, Ant-Man is only tapping into a portion of the real superpowers of ants

What happens when this ant stings you?

Fortunately, red imported fire ant stings have been uncommon in Australia, and we hope it stays this way.

Their sting is painful, with a fire-like burning character, and is associated with swelling and redness. Over the following hours or days, sting sites develop blisters or pustules that are itchy and take days to improve.

A person can easily be stung hundreds of times, which can cause a lot of distress.

What’s the treatment? Do I need to go to hospital?

Many people with a smaller number of stings can be safely managed at home. Usual treatments include:

• gently washing the area with soap and water

• using cold compresses on red and swollen stings. If you use an ice pack or ice, avoid direct contact with the skin

• taking antihistamines, which you can buy from your local pharmacy.

Do not break the blisters that form at sting sites, and see your local doctor if the stings become more red and painful a few days later, to exclude infection.

Read more:
Bzzz, slap! How to treat insect bites (home remedies included)

When to seek medical care

Uncommonly, red imported fire ant stings can be life threatening. About 2% of people who are stung develop a severe and life-threatening allergic reaction known as anaphylaxis. This has also been reported in Australia.

Many stinging animals in Australia can cause anaphylaxis, including bees, wasps, and other ants such as jack jumper ants.

People allergic to some wasps may also be allergic to venom from the red fire ants.

Symptoms of anaphylaxis after being stung by a fire ant are similar to those after being stung by other animals. Symptoms include:

• difficulty talking or breathing

• noisy breathing

• swelling of the face (including lips, eyes or tongue)

• tightness in the throat, with difficulty swallowing

• dizziness

• collapsing.

There may also be a spreading red rash (hives or welts).

If you have any of these symptoms, seek immediate medical assistance. This may including calling 000.

Rarely, the ant venom can cause other toxic effects, which may be more likely in people who have been stung hundreds of times. So seek medical advice if you have unexplained or unusual symptoms after you’ve been stung.

Read more:
Ants, bees and wasps: the venomous Australians with a sting in their tails

Avoid these ants if you can

Avoid exposing yourself to imported red fire ants. Report nests to authorities. Do not handle the nests yourself as this is more likely to spread the ants. This is also when you’re most likely to be stung.

If this article raises health concerns for you or for someone you know about insect stings call the Poisons Information Centre from anywhere in Australia on 131 126. This evidence-based advice is available 24 hours a day. For life-threatening symptoms, call 000.

Darren Roberts is the Medical Director of the NSW Poisons Information Centre

– ref. Fire ants are on the march. Here’s what happens when they sting – https://theconversation.com/fire-ants-are-on-the-march-heres-what-happens-when-they-sting-218908

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alison Pavlovich, Senior lecturer in the School of Accounting and Commercial Law, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

The new coalition government has announced a suite of tax reforms, including reintroducing the ability for property investors to deduct the interest costs on their mortgages against their rental income.

Early criticism of the proposed changes has focused on its retrospective nature (it will be backdated to April 1, 2023), potential windfalls to landlords (at the expense of tenants), and the fiscal cost of the measure.

Missing from much of the coverage was mention of the previous Labour government’s policy being extremely punitive to some landlords, without necessarily bringing the claimed benefit of improving housing affordability. In fact, it is likely to have put upward pressure on rents.

Alongside the reinstatement of interest deductions, National’s plan to reduce the applicable period of the brightline test – which requires property owners to pay income tax on property sold within a certain time frame – from ten years back to two years.

While property investors will benefit from the proposed changes, there have been some real issues with Labour’s earlier tax reforms. We should be glad to see them gone.

Denying deductions on residential properties

In 2021, the Labour government announced plans to phase out the deduction of interest against income derived by residential landlords.

These changes meant landlords couldn’t offset interest payments against their rental income. If the property was later sold, the accumulated interest costs would then become deductible against any taxable gains.

Read more:
Why a proposed capital gains tax could mean tax cuts for most New Zealanders

Much like the extension of the brightline test from five to ten years, proponents of this law change said it would address housing affordability by reducing investor demand.

As it happens, investor demand in the property market has reduced significantly since 2021. But whether denial of interest deductibility has caused or even contributed to this will never be known.

During the past two years, the property market has experienced a slowdown due to rising interest rates, stricter lending rules, and a general reduction in economic confidence in New Zealand.

End of a flawed law

Some criticisms of the new government policy are valid. It is retroactive, benefits property investors, and is expensive for the government to implement. But on the flip side, the policy removes a fundamentally flawed law.

When the government proposed the denial of interest deductibility in 2021, Inland Revenue advised against it on the basis that the change was unlikely to improve housing affordability.

According to this analysis, while the measure might put downward pressure on house prices, it was also likely to result in upward pressure on rent. The policy also had the potential to reduce the supply of new housing developments in the longer term.

An incoherent tax system

More broadly, Inland Revenue said it was concerned the measure added to the compliance and administrative burden on affected taxpayers, and eroded the coherence of the tax system overall.

This last point is important.

A good tax system should be coherent and comprehensive. The introduction of the denial of interest deductibility reduced the coherence of the tax system.

There is a fundamental (and long-standing) principle in tax law: the costs associated with producing taxable income can be offset against that income – with employees being the one major exception to this rule. But in most other cases, expenditure incurred in producing taxable income is deductible.

Removing the deduction of interest expenditure, an often substantial and very real cost to property owners, is a significant departure from this principle. It was likely to cause financial hardship for some landlords.

Read more:
New Zealand’s tax system is under the spotlight (again). What needs to change to make it fair?

Furthermore, this incoherent measure was introduced, at least in part, to compensate for the obvious hole in the current tax system – the lack of a comprehensive capital gains tax.

The then revenue minister, David Parker, acknowledged the tax system benefits residential landlords by exempting many from tax on any capital gain upon sale of the property.

But rather than introducing a tax on capital gains – widely accepted as part of a comprehensive tax system and supported by the Working Tax Group in 2019 – the government chose to implement a distortionary measure in an attempt to address the problem of tax advantages for residential property investors.

Still no capital gains tax

The government may well be winding back the measures introduced by the previous government to appease its property investor constituents.

And there is no real chance the new government will introduce a comprehensive capital gains tax, which would improve the coherence and comprehensiveness of New Zealand’s tax system.

In fact, by reducing the application of the brightline test to two years, quite the opposite is intended.

But the interest deduction denial was unlikely to achieve a great deal more than an increase in rents. It was a bad law, and there are good reasons for it to be gone.

Alison Pavlovich does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Yes, landlords gain from the repeal of interest deductibility rules – but it was a flawed law from the outset – https://theconversation.com/yes-landlords-gain-from-the-repeal-of-interest-deductibility-rules-but-it-was-a-flawed-law-from-the-outset-218818

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kimberley Reid, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Atmospheric Sciences, Monash University

You’ve probably heard El Niño brings hot and dry weather to the eastern states, but what about the rest of Australia? Are we all in for a scorcher this summer?

El Niño is what scientists call a climate driver. But it’s just one of many.

These climate drivers control year-to-year variations in the weather. Some years are hotter and drier, while others are cooler and wetter.

Australia is particularly prone to weather whiplash because our continent is buffeted by climate drivers to our north, south, east and west. The dominant driver in your state may be one of the lesser-known influences.

East: El Niño Southern Oscillation

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the resident climate driver in the Pacific Ocean and the driver with the biggest influence over Australian weather. Differences in sea surface temperatures and winds across the Pacific determine whether we swing towards El Niño (the boy) or La Niña (the girl).

During the El Niño phase, sea surface temperatures near South America are warmer than normal and they are cooler than normal off the coast of eastern Australia. Additionally, trade winds that blow from east to west across the Pacific weaken.

El Niño brings hotter daytime temperatures, but often cooler nights. That’s because reduced cloud cover allows more heat to escape into space overnight. So the same process that increases the chances of heatwaves can also raise the risk of frost in Western Australia, New South Wales, the Australian Capital Territory and Victoria.

Australia as a whole is typically drier during an El Niño event. In the tropical regions, El Niño can delay the onset of the monsoon and reduce the likelihood of tropical cyclones. In the southern states, the hot and dry conditions increase the chance of intense bushfires.

La Niña is the opposite phase. Waters off eastern Australia are warmer than usual, increasing the chance of tropical cyclones and an earlier start to the monsoon for WA, the Northern Territory and Queensland.

So what does El Niño do to the weather in your state? Hover over your state in the interactive map to find out.

Read more:
We’re in an El Niño – so why has Australia been so wet?

West: Indian Ocean Dipole

The Indian Ocean Dipole is like ENSO’s Indian Ocean cousin. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is declared when ocean temperatures near Africa are warmer than normal and ocean temperatures off the coast of Sumatra are cooler than usual.

A positive dipole tends to bring warmer and drier conditions, particularly to western and central Australia. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole is the reverse and is associated with wetter than normal weather and an increase in northwest cloudbands.

North: Madden-Julian Oscillation

The Madden-Julian Oscillation is a pulse of storms that start in the Indian Ocean, travel over Northern Australia and Indonesia and die in the Pacific Ocean. Ahead of the pulse, the air sinks, causing sunny and dry weather. Under the pulse is high storm activity and typically heavy rainfall.

We describe the Madden-Julian Oscillation based on whether the pulse of storms is active or inactive and where the storm activity is located on its path between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. As well as causing rainfall, the Madden-Julian Oscillation can control the timing of the monsoon onset and tropical cyclone formation.

South: Southern Annular Mode

The Southern Annular Mode controls the north and south position of the westerly winds that whizz around the globe in the Southern Ocean. When the winds are further north than usual, we call this the negative phase. But when the westerly wind move towards Antarctica, we call this the positive phase.

The phase of the Southern Annular Mode affects how many weather systems, like cold fronts, make landfall over southern Australia. A positive mode may also draw tropical moist air south, which happened in 2022 during the extensive flooding over eastern Australia.

Climate drivers control the odds, but not the result

These four key climate drivers affect the weather on average (over months and seasons), but they do not dictate the exact day-to-day weather we experience. As the Gippsland region of Victoria saw in October, heavy rainfall can still occur during an El Niño.

Climate drivers are like a football coach. They can select the best players and develop ingenious strategies, but that doesn’t guarantee a win every time.

Players can get injured on the field or simply have a bad game. These uncontrollable factors are challenging to predict and may change the result from what we would expect. Scientists call this stochasticity. The climate drivers are the football coach, but the day-to-day weather systems are the players.

The Bureau of Meteorology releases an update on all of these drivers every two weeks. The update explains which drivers are currently active and the forecast for the next few weeks.

So, if you are wondering why the weather is cooler during summer, or it’s raining in the middle of the dry season, perhaps take a look at which driver is steering Australia’s weather at the moment.

Read more:
Why are so many climate records breaking all at once?

Kimberley Reid receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. What does El Niño do to the weather in your state? – https://theconversation.com/what-does-el-nino-do-to-the-weather-in-your-state-218257

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jane Currie, Professor of Nursing, Queensland University of Technology

Heatwaves are a major public health hazard. Socially disadvantaged people are especially exposed to extreme heat and other impacts of climate change. Many people experiencing homelessness – more than 120,000 on any given day in Australia – are exposed to extreme temperatures sleeping on the street, in cars or tents, or in overcrowded and substandard housing.

Researchers are working with people experiencing homelessness, St Vincent’s Hospital and the City of Sydney to design, deliver and evaluate a mobile “cooling hub” this summer. The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting an unusually hot summer. The pilot project in Surry Hills will use low-cost strategies, including misting fans, to keep 54 people at a time cool on the hottest of days.

We’ll use the HeatWatch app, developed by the University of Sydney, to know when to set up the cooling hub. It’s the first time the app, as a preparedness tool, and a mobile hub like this have been deployed in Australia. Renewable energy will power the hub, so this response isn’t itself contributing to climate change.

Read more:
Cruel summer ahead – why is Australia so unprepared?

Homelessness increases heat risks

Climate change represents a health emergency. The extremes of climate change can be devastating for the health of people experiencing homelessness. They are more exposed to heat as it can be very hard for them to find cool spaces, particularly in cities.

People in this situation are also more likely to be vulnerable to the impacts of heat, as many have chronic health conditions, such as heart disease. Some medications, for both physical and mental health conditions, can reduce a person’s ability to regulate their body temperature.

Extreme heat places enormous strain on a person’s body, including their heart. It can lead to serious illness and even death.

Severe heat also creates significant costs. In a 2020 Sydney heatwave, the cost of treating heat illness in just two people who were homeless was A$70,184.

The World Health Organization estimates climate change will cause 250,000 deaths a year from 2030, at a cost of US$2-4 billion ($A3-6 billion).

Read more:
Homelessness today sees workers and families with nowhere stable to live. No wonder their health is suffering

Ensuring the hub meets people’s needs

Our team plans to help hundreds of people stay cooler and safer in Sydney this summer. The cooling hub has been co-designed with people experiencing homelessness. This process will help ensure the hub meets the needs of the people it’s meant to assist at times of extreme heat.

People with experience of homelessness worked with researchers and health workers to determine where to set up the cooling hub, what to include inside, how to make the community aware of the service, and how to reach out from the hub and bring people to it. For example, for many people experiencing homelessness, being able to access health care, connect with others, bring their pets and store belongings are all important.

The cooling hub will be set up at Ward Park, Surry Hills, and will be open in the daytime during extreme heat. It will comprise a marquee and low-tech equipment that maximises cooling and health support. The hub can be set up quickly and easily and relocated as required.

Nurses, doctors and peer support workers of St Vincent’s Hospital Sydney, Homeless Health Service and City of Sydney public liaison officers will staff the hub. They will provide evidence-based cooling strategies and monitor body temperature, blood pressure and heart and breathing rates to identify early signs of heat illness.

People who are at high risk of heat illness will leave the hub with a pedestal or handheld fan and water spray bottle. All will receive information on how best to stay cool.

Hub users will be advised to stay hydrated and in the shade, limit activity in the heat of the day and remove heavy clothing. Each of these measures can be very effective in keeping cool.

The hub will also offer food and opportunities to access social and housing supports.

Read more:
Melbourne now has chief heat officers. Here’s why we need them and what they can do

Creating a blueprint for others

In 2021, St Vincent’s Hospital Sydney and others set up a vaccination hub for people experiencing homelessness during the COVID pandemic. The lessons from that initiative were written into a blueprint for others to use.

Our evaluation of the cooling hub will include satisfaction and experience surveys along with environmental and health data to estimate its acceptability, effectiveness and cost efficiency. This will include its impact on attendances for heat illness at St Vincent’s Hospital emergency department.

Drawing on what is learned, we will write a cooling hub blueprint for other services to apply.

Read more:
Efforts to find safe housing for homeless youth have gone backwards. Here’s what the new national plan must do differently

Climate justice in action

People experiencing homelessness are poorly represented in disaster planning. The consequences can be devastating. Yet simple preventive strategies, carefully applied with communities, are likely to reduce the health impact of heatwaves.

Heat is one of the many impacts of climate change that are not felt equally. People who are most disadvantaged bear the greatest cost.

A climate justice response to climate change is essential, one that works with the most disadvantaged people in our community to meet their needs. Our initiative will provide a blueprint for co-designing a cooling hub with disadvantaged people and responding to their needs in the climate crisis.

Professor Jane Currie holds an honorary appointment with St Vincent’s Hospital Sydney for the purposes of research. For this cooling hub pilot project, she received funding from the City of Sydney, St Vincent’s Hospital Sydney and Queensland University of Technology.

Associate Professor Jo River, UTS and Northern Sydney Local Health District, has expertise in co-design research and received funding from the City of Sydney and St. Vincent’s Hospital Sydney for the cooling hub co-design pilot project.

Dr. Timothy English is the Humanitarian Settings Co-lead for the Heat and Health Research Incubator at the University of Sydney and received funding from the City of Sydney and St Vincent’s Hospital Sydney for this cooling hub pilot project.

– ref. Australia’s first mobile cooling hub is ready for searing heat this summer – and people who are homeless helped design it – https://theconversation.com/australias-first-mobile-cooling-hub-is-ready-for-searing-heat-this-summer-and-people-who-are-homeless-helped-design-it-218829

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hunter Fujak, Lecturer in Sport Management, Deakin University

While 2023 was a watershed year for Australian women’s sport due to the Matildas’ stirring run at the Women’s World Cup, netball is going through its worst period ever.

Netball Australia and the sport’s players have reportedly agreed to a new pay deal following a period of bruising negotiations, which is expected to modestly increase pay and introduce a revenue-sharing component.

But the good news comes as the federal government has indicated it will withdraw nearly $18 million in funding to netball to reallocate to other sports. The reason: a failure by Netball Australia to deliver a “sufficiently robust” plan for its use.

The loss of federal funding would come as a huge blow to an organisation saddled with $4.2 million in debt.

In addition, it’s been reported that netball’s broadcast partner, Foxtel, is concerned about the sport’s lack of strategic direction. This has some concerned it may not renew its broadcast rights at the end of its current deal.

For a sport that has historically boasted the highest rate of female team sport participation in Australia, and with a national league predating nearly all other women’s sports, how has netball fallen into such a precarious position?

COVID funding hole

Many of netball’s current financial woes can be traced back to the onset of the COVID pandemic four years ago.

Due to the waiving of membership contributions and higher operational costs related to running Super Netball hubs during the pandemic, the sport lost $2.8 million in 2020. The next year was even worse: a loss of $4.4 million.

This saw Netball Australia’s net available funds diminish 98% from $7.3 million in 2019 to just over $158,000 by the end of 2021.

By June 2022, Netball Australia had to publicly deny it was on the brink of bankruptcy.

Netball’s financial precariousness became more acute in October 2022 after billionaire Gina Rinehart withdrew her $15 million sponsorship from the sport. This came after concerns were raised about the wearing of Rinehart’s company logo on the team’s uniform, stemming from comments her father had once made about Indigenous people.

Worse news was to come when Collingwood Football Club announced its shock withdrawal from the Super Netball competition during the 2023 season.

An erosion of player trust

A key challenge over the past few years has been a significant erosion in trust between players and management.

Just last month, for example, players publicly blamed Netball Australia for being responsible for the implosion of the sponsorship deal with Rinehart – not them.

But the relationship had started to sour back in 2020 when Netball Australia introduced the two-goal “super shot” to the Super Netball competition only six weeks prior to the start of the season, which players roundly criticised.

Netball Australia made a similarly unilateral decision to sell grand final hosting rights to Western Australia two weeks prior to the conclusion of the 2022 season. The players’ association decried the move, saying players were “devastated”.

Then came the bruising negotiations over the new collective playing agreement, which seemed to receive more headlines than any on-court exploits in 2023.

Prior to the Netball World Cup in June, for instance, Netball Australia initially refused to announce its squad until players had signed agreements, which was described by former head coach Lisa Alexandra as a “ransom”.

In recent weeks, Netball Australia issued legal notices reminding players of their obligation to attend an awards function. Stories also emerged of netballers being forced to sleep in their cars, retiring to play other sports and being brought to tears over their financial insecurity.

Thankfully, an in-principle agreement appears to have reached. Now, the hard work of rebuilding the sport’s public image can hopefully begin.

Read more:
Australia just won the netball world cup. Why isn’t there room for multiple women’s world cups in our sports media?

Increasing competition among women’s leagues

Netball has been the centre of women’s sport in Australia for over a century. Today, however, it must compete with a number of other women’s sports for prominence.

My research has estimated a staggering 17 million Australians watched the Matildas semifinal fixture in the World Cup, for instance. When the Diamonds went on to win the Netball World Cup, however, it went largely unnoticed and uncelebrated.

The AFLW and NRLW continue to grow, too. This year’s NRLW grand final attracted a national audience of more than one million viewers. And the AFLW, which has historically poached netball talent to develop its league, was able to expand to an 18-team competition for the 2022-23 season.

So, where does this leave netball? While the recent news may appear grim, there are reasons for optimism.

The 2023 Super Netball season broke attendance records, for example, while broadcast viewership was also slightly up.

Netball participation has also remained robust across the country, despite the widening of sport choices for women and girls.

What netball must do now

Netball Australia faces two immediate challenges it must address.

First is achieving unity across the game following such a fractious period. Unity with players is particularly vital, as they represent Super Netball’s best marketing asset to achieve desperately needed growth.

The apparent inclusion of revenue sharing in the new player agreement ensures athletes will be genuine partners with a vested interest in commercially growing the league.

Read more:
Is netball a feminist triumph? Let’s discuss

Unity would also help with netball’s second immediate challenge: breaking the perpetual cycle of negative sentiment surrounding the sport.

Negative sentiment causes fans and sponsors alike to disengage. Positive sentiment, by contrast, is a propellant. Look no further than the contrast between the Wallabies and Matildas at the moment.

At a strategic level, Netball Australia and its players need to properly assess whether the sport is heading in the right direction. That both the Australian Sports Commission chair and federal minister for sport have both publicly criticised Netball Australia should serve as a wake-up call.

A reevaluation of netball’s strategic direction must acknowledge that the cultural landscape has shifted. Women’s sport has gone mainstream and netball must find a way to broaden its audience, similar to the Matildas and football codes.

As Sports Minister Anika Wells put it, “netball is too important for it to not be successful”.

Deakin University is a sponsor of Super Netball’s Melbourne Vixens.

Hunter Fujak has previously been a board member of a NSW Premier League netball club.

– ref. Netballers may have a new pay deal, but the sport remains in a precarious position – https://theconversation.com/netballers-may-have-a-new-pay-deal-but-the-sport-remains-in-a-precarious-position-219230

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew H. Holden, Lecturer, School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland

We are biodiversity researchers – an ecologist, a mathematician and a taxonomist – who were locked down together during the COVID pandemic. Being restricted to the house, it didn’t take long before we began to wonder how many species of plants and animals we were sharing the space with. So we set to work counting them all.

We guessed we would find around 200–300, and many of our colleagues guessed the same.

There was nothing extraordinary about our 400 square metre block of land in Annerley, a suburb of Brisbane in Queensland, Australia. Roughly half the block was occupied by a three-bedroom house.

What was extraordinary was the number of species we discovered there. As revealed in our just-published study, starting on the first day of lockdown and continuing over the course of a year, we catalogued 1,150 species on our inner-city property.

Familiar faces and rare recluses

Many of the species were what any east coast suburban Australian would expect: ibises, brush turkeys, kookaburras, possums and flying foxes. But, surprisingly, others had rarely been recorded.

In fact, three of the 1,150 species had never been documented in Australia’s leading biodiversity database at that point. This included a rare mosquito, a sandfly and an invasive flatworm that can cause populations of native snails to decline.

Read more:
The 39 endangered species in Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide and other Australian cities

We found common foes, but also many friends. That rare mosquito was just one of 13 mosquito species we found. The cupboards accommodated pantry moths and grain weevils, but also spiders to prey on them (we recorded 56 species).

Our lack of assiduous garden-tending meant weeds were prolific; of the 103 plant species we documented on the property, 100 were non-native.

Apart from weeds, however, the vast majority of species were actually native. Our two massive lilly-pilly trees provided shade, shelter and food, magnets for numerous pollinators and other species.

Bees and butterflies

The yard was filled with pollinators. For example, there were hoverflies which, at a quick glance, you’d think were wasps. We had ten species of those, a fraction of the more than 109 species of flies we found.

Native blue-banded bees and fluffy teddybear bees roosted in the hedges under our windows at night. They were just two of more than 70 bee and wasp species we observed.

We also counted a mindblowing 436 species of butterflies and moths. A few were as large as a human hand, but most were tiny and barely noticeable. Some were brightly coloured, while others – like the vampire moth Calyptra minuticornis – seemed boring until we began to study their behaviour.

The moth Scatochresis innumera is another interesting one: as a caterpillar, it lives inside a single possum poop before emerging as an adult.

The caterpillars of Parilyrgis concolor, yet another moth, live in spiderwebs, surviving on the spider’s food waste, while the adults can be found hanging bat-like from the spiderwebs. It is not known how they avoid getting eaten by the spiders.

Wasps and beetles

We recorded ten species of lycaenid “blue” butterflies, many of which use ants to protect their caterpillars from predators, including certain wasp species which would lay eggs in them if they got a chance.

These wasps are called parasitoids – meaning their young develop in other organisms, eventually killing them. Some of these wasps even parasitise other parasitoid wasps. Our urban homes are clearly complex ecosystems.

We were surprised to only find just under 100 beetle species (the fourth most common group of organisms in our study). Beetles are widely believed to be the most diverse order of insects on the planet.

Our finding may be a sign of declining beetle populations, which has been observed around the world. On the other hand, it may just have been a bad year for beetles in our neighbourhood.

An urban environment teeming with life

Overall, we found far more species than we expected, and we showed that even urban environments can be teeming with wildlife.

A big reason for that was surely the vegetation: the shrubs, trees and weeds in the yard. The monotony of perfectly tended lawn and heavily sprayed and manicured flowerbeds may be nice to look at and for the kids to play on but, as habitat for urban wildlife, it is lacking.

Read more:
Here’s how to design cities where people and nature can both flourish

Our own laziness meant we did little work in the garden. However, by giving the mower and pesticides a break, and by sacrificing some lawn for native trees, shrubs and flowering weeds, we ended up with something much more valuable.

But no matter what you do to maintain your home, definitely check your porch or balcony light tonight, and keep your eye out for urban wildlife around your home. You too can experience some pretty amazing nature, no matter how urban the environment you live in.

Matthew H. Holden receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Department of Environment and Science, Queensland

Andrew Rogers and Russell Q-Y Yong do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. We thought we’d find 200 species living in our house and yard. We were very wrong – https://theconversation.com/we-thought-wed-find-200-species-living-in-our-house-and-yard-we-were-very-wrong-217082

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sam Bennett, Disability Program Director, Grattan Institute

The long-awaited NDIS review has looked far beyond the National Disability Insurance Scheme, taking a bird’s eye view of disability services in Australia. Critical to the future of the NDIS are services for people with disability outside of the scheme.

More than 85% of the 4.4 million Australians with disability are not in the NDIS. As services to support them have shrunk in the ten years since the NDIS was introduced, they’ve been scrambling to join the scheme.

The very first of the NDIS review’s 26 recommendations is a separate tier of disability services, called “foundational supports”, outside the scheme and accessible to many more people with disability. This will sound familiar to those familiar with the scheme’s original design when it was proposed by the Productivity Commission.

What could this look like in practice? And has the review resolved the problem of woolly definitions around “reasonable and necessary” supports?

Read more:
Recommendations to reboot the NDIS have finally been released. 5 experts react

The states are on board

National Cabinet’s decision on Wednesday for the states and Commonwealth to split the funding of foundational supports promises some relief to the majority of disabled Australians who can’t get support from the NDIS.

Establishing foundational supports outside the scheme is the end of a long battle. The states have cried poor, while the Commonwealth has insisted the NDIS cannot be the only source of services to people with disability.

On the face of it, the states got a great deal at National Cabinet.

States and territories agreed to increase their NDIS funding cap by 4% and signed up to a capped contribution of A$10 billion over five years for foundational supports. The Commonwealth agreed to tip in billions to strengthen Medicare, which is itself a provider of foundational supports – another win for the states.

What that could look like

More foundational supports should mean all people with disability, including hundreds of thousands of children, can get the services they need. Many supports which have been sucked into the NDIS vortex and itemised at high cost, could be removed from the scheme and funded on a more sustainable basis.

For example, providing services through schools and early childhood centres means more children get early intervention. These children don’t need an NDIS plan but rather the reasonable adjustments these settings are already obligated to provide.

Making mainstream services available should curb escalating demand for the professional diagnoses and reports currently needed to get onto the NDIS.

It should mean allied health professionals can visit multiple children at one school, and children can spend more time in the classroom.

More foundational supports will help the NDIS budget, too. If more disability services are available to people outside the NDIS, fewer people with disability will have to join the scheme to get what they need. It should mean people with higher intensity needs will be directed into the NDIS where they can get specialised services.

Read more:
Australia’s rates of autism should be celebrated – but real-life impact, not diagnosis, should determine NDIS support

What about ‘reasonable and necessary’ supports?

The NDIS review found a lack of clarity about what supports should be considered “reasonable and necessary” was at the heart of many of the scheme’s problems. The review panel wrote:

It has contributed to a breakdown in trust between participants and the NDIA. It has also placed pressure on the sustainability of the scheme […] The criteria for reasonable and necessary supports were deliberately kept broad, to make sure supports can be tailored to the individual.

Foundational supports, for people outside the NDIS, are the sorts of services best funded through grants, contracts or government infrastructure. It would be neither practical nor cost effective to fund them on an individual fee-for-service basis.

In contrast, reasonable and necessary supports, for people in the NDIS, are more targeted, sometimes more specialised, and often more intensive. These are services such as attendant care at home, support with personal care, access to a range of therapies, and one-off costs such as assistive technology or home modification. These supports need to be tailored to the individual. This lends itself to individualised funding.

Having both foundational and NDIS supports should make life much better for Australians with disability – but only if the federal government announces reforms to create “NDIS 2.0” and foundational supports with ongoing funding, rather than an uncertain series of short-term project grants.

Read more:
‘I want to get bogged at a beach in my wheelchair and know people will help’. Micheline Lee on the way forward for the NDIS

Meaningful support

Exactly what is reasonable and necessary remains undefined after this year-long review, but a new landscape of disability services should imbue the phrase with fresh meaning. Instead of being an ambiguous and threatening concept, a well-implemented level of funding should provide what is necessary for an Australian with disability to pursue their life goals – taking into account the foundational supports available outside the NDIS.

Aside from outlawing certain expenditure (for example, rent, groceries and utilities) and ensuring NDIS funds do not duplicate costs within the scope of other systems, what is reasonable and necessary becomes a simpler matter of fairness and equity. It is not a dehumanising debate about what you can and can’t have.

That is a disability scheme worth fighting for.

The Grattan Institute receives funding support from the Summer Foundation.

Grattan Institute’s Disability Program has support from the Summer Foundation.

– ref. What’s the difference between ‘reasonable and necessary’ and ‘foundational’ supports? Here’s what the NDIS review says – https://theconversation.com/whats-the-difference-between-reasonable-and-necessary-and-foundational-supports-heres-what-the-ndis-review-says-216074

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rebecca J McLeod, Senior Research Fellow in Marine Ecology, University of Otago

Climate change might not be high on its immediate agenda, but New Zealand’s new government does have one potentially significant and innovative policy.

Recognising the marine environment’s ability to remove atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), it has pledged to consider bringing wetlands into the emissions trading scheme, and to investigate the potential of kelp farms to sequester CO₂.

New Zealand’s current sequestration plans rely heavily on planting forests and buying international carbon credits to offset emissions.

Emissions reduction and the removal of atmospheric CO₂ are both needed to keep global temperature increase to less than 1.5°C. But the country is still far from on track to meet its obligations under the Paris Agreement, and the national goal of net zero by 2050.

At the same time, New Zealand has the world’s sixth largest exclusive economic zone, with unique oceanographic features for CO₂ removal that are attracting international interest. The ocean is Earth’s largest carbon sink, having removed around 30% of global CO₂ emissions to date.

New Zealand also has the scientific expertise to research the potential for harnessing its seas to help achieve national net zero ambitions. But it lacks a clear strategy for assessing risk and developing the most beneficial solutions.

Benefits and risks of marine CO₂ removal

Around the world, projects are under way to restore coastal wetlands by “re-wetting” drained land and planting mangroves, seagrass and other coastal plants. These “blue carbon” projects aim to restore the carbon burial properties of wetlands, with related benefits for biodiversity and coastal resilience.

A growing number of countries are including coastal wetlands in their climate accounting and reporting. Increasingly, these projects are tied to carbon credit schemes – which seems to be what New Zealand’s new government is also signalling.

Read more:
Blue carbon: could a solution to the climate challenge be buried in the depths of fiords?

But the ways in which the nation’s marine environment could help lower atmospheric CO₂ extend far beyond coastal wetlands. There is great interest in enhancing natural oceanic processes, known as “marine carbon dioxide removal”, or mCDR.

In the open ocean, mCDR aims to increase CO₂ uptake via giant seaweed farms, enhancing seawater alkalinity, and fertilising areas of the ocean to promote algal blooms.

The appeal of mCDR lies in the ocean’s potential capacity to draw down enormous amounts of carbon. But while the potential gains are large, there are gaps in our knowledge. More investment is needed to determine the net carbon benefits – and potential ecological risks – of intervening in nature in these ways.

Carbon burial at sea

Plants in the sea – mangroves, seaweed, and microscopic phytoplankton – capture CO₂ through photosynthesis, just like their counterparts on land. But permanently removing that carbon from the atmosphere means burying it in the deep sea or the seafloor.

This presents challenges. It is relatively easy to measure the carbon uptake by a seaweed farm, for example, but much harder to track the path of that carbon into a permanent reservoir.

Read more:
New Zealand’s maritime territory is 15 times its landmass – here’s why we need a ministry for the ocean

Similarly, we need more accurate accounting for increased CO₂ uptake from ocean fertilisation or alkalinity enhancement, and the ultimate fate of that carbon in the vast and remote ocean environment. This will be crucial for ensuring the integrity and credibility of such approaches.

A recent seafloor carbon map has highlighted the parts of New Zealand’s marine environment, such as the deep ocean and fiords, that are important carbon reservoirs.

But we also need to consider the vulnerability of these reservoirs. If disturbed, they may store less carbon, or even release it.

Lessons and opportunities

There are already well-established projects focused on the blue carbon potential of coastal wetlands in New Zealand. But overall the country lacks a clear plan for marine carbon removal, or indeed for its oceans in general.

A comprehensive approach to evaluating marine CO₂ removal has to be informed by scientific research. And while major funding of research and development is happening elsewhere, New Zealand’s limited resources mean it must be strategic about where it invests.

The many blue carbon and mCDR solutions being considered internationally are a good place to start. Applying this knowledge to New Zealand’s unique environmental and cultural settings will involve weighing up each solution before committing to a strategy.

Read more:
NZ’s vital kelp forests are in peril from ocean warming – threatening the important species that rely on them

Importantly, international climate policy and governance needs to be developed in parallel with scientific advances. Right now, coastal wetlands are the only marine environment included in the International Panel for Climate Change guidelines for greenhouse gas inventories. More work will be needed to apply those guidelines to New Zealand’s coastal wetlands.

There are good working models already in the blue carbon forums established in Scotland and the United Kingdom. These distil scientific information, develop strategies and plans, and act as conduits between scientists, policy makers and politicians.

A similar approach in New Zealand would help advance a nationally coordinated framework of research, policy and environmental management that strategically considers all blue carbon and mCDR options.

Such a strategy will consider the net carbon benefit versus the risks and possible ecological side effects, particularly for mCDR.

But the country is well positioned to explore how the ocean might contribute to its climate goals. The scientists are ready, the government has pledged action – it’s time to get moving.

Rebecca J McLeod receives funding from the MBIE Endeavour Fund. She is the Chair of the Fiordland Marine Guardians.

Cliff Law receives funding from the NZ Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment for determining the role of the ocean in the climate system.

– ref. Harnessing the oceans to ‘bury’ carbon has huge potential – and risk – so NZ needs to move with caution – https://theconversation.com/harnessing-the-oceans-to-bury-carbon-has-huge-potential-and-risk-so-nz-needs-to-move-with-caution-217553

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hing-Wah Chau, Course Chair in Building Design & Senior Lecturer in Built Environment, Victoria University

Soaring rents and home prices, increasing mortgage stress, record immigration and a growing population are fuelling a housing crisis and increasing homelessness. In the face of this pressing need, tiny houses offer an alternative housing option.

Tiny houses have become popular in the United States. Their popularity is growing in other developed countries such as the UK and Canada. In Australia, however, planning and housing regulations present many barriers to using tiny houses as permanent homes.

Dire statistics highlight the need to find homes for Australians quickly and cheaply. The unmet need for social housing has been estimated at 437,000 households. The 2021 census counted 122,494 people as homeless. By 2022, more than 640,000 households’ housing needs were not being met.

Some local councils now see tiny houses as part of the solution to these problems. They are taking steps to make it easier for people to live in them.

Read more:
Tiny and alternate houses can help ease Australia’s rental affordability crisis

Australia is trailing a global movement

The tiny house movement is built on several values. These include a preference for smaller homes, the pursuit of minimalism, the desire to live more sustainably and a rejection of the prevailing consumer culture.

The 2018 International Housing Code defines tiny houses as dwellings of 400 square feet (37 square metres) in area or less. In Australia, dwellings under 50 square metres are commonly regarded as tiny houses.

The two main types are tiny houses on foundations and tiny houses on wheels. The latter is built on a trailer and must comply with road-legal dimensions and vehicle regulations.

Tiny houses have long been used as dwellings overseas. Faced with high property prices and land scarcity, those who enjoy the convenience of city life with a minimalist lifestyle have embraced tiny homes.

Examples include micro-homes in Tokyo. Japanese micro-homes are often sited on irregular leftover pieces of land.

In the US, the Occupy Madison Village is a tiny house commune in Madison, Wisconsin. It provides housing, communal living and community-based decision-making for homeless people to promote their sense of belonging and social participation.

Read more:
3 innovations helping the homeless in Eugene, Oregon

What’s happening in Australia?

In Australia, the various barriers to tiny house living include local government planning schemes, time limits and other restrictions on occupancy and connection to utilities. Over the past year, local councils have begun to make it easier to live in a tiny house.

The Shire of Esperance in Western Australia was the first local council in the country to recognise tiny houses as permanent dwellings in December 2022.

Mount Alexander Shire Council in Victoria removed the permit requirement for residents to park tiny houses on wheels on properties with existing dwellings in June 2023.

The Shire of Capel in Western Australia adopted a tiny house policy to allow ancillary dwellings and tiny house communities in August 2023.

The Surf Coast Shire in Victoria is starting a two-year trial of domestic use of tiny houses on wheels in 2024.

These changes are likely to help people who are struggling to find an affordable home and those on long waiting lists for social housing.

Read more:
Tiny houses and alternative homes are gaining councils’ approval as they wrestle with the housing crisis

A cheaper and faster way to house people

Tiny houses offer a cost-effective and prompt solution to the issues of affordable housing and homelessness. Their small size means they can be built more quickly and cheaply.

The construction cost of a tiny house is typically A$80,000-$160,000. The median house price for Australian capital cities is now more than $900,000 – and around $650,000 for units.

On average, it takes four to 12 months to build a house in Australia after the purchase of land and design approval. It takes only about four weeks to build a tiny house commercially.

The average new house size in Australia is the biggest in the world. Average floor area has been between 230 and 246 square metres for the past 20 years. Large houses use more materials and energy to build and run, adding to living costs.

Shrinking our environmental footprints

Tiny houses promote liveable space downsizing and simpler lifestyles. They also demonstrate a stronger responsibility for environmental stewardship. Some have rainwater tanks, composting toilets, solar panels and batteries and can operate completely off-grid.

Because tiny houses use fewer resources, their occupants’ environmental footprint is smaller. They represent a shift towards more sustainable living by prioritising lower energy use (heating, cooling and lighting) and greenhouse gas emissions. These signify a commitment to limit climate change and global warming by moving towards Australia’s net-zero carbon emission target by 2050.

Read more:
When people downsize to tiny houses, they adopt more environmentally friendly lifestyles

The global tiny house movement represents a concerted effort to reduce the huge environmental footprint of the building and construction industry. At the same time, high-performing, energy-efficient tiny houses cut occupants’ living costs.

Tiny houses do not cater for all households. They suit certain demographics, especially single and partnered people with no children or retirees.

Tiny houses can add much-needed diversity to Australians’ housing options. As councils are recognising, they’re a way of quickly expanding the affordable housing supply in a community. Lower running costs and a smaller environmental footprint are added bonuses.

Hing-Wah Chau does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Councils are opening the door to tiny houses as a quick, affordable and green solution – https://theconversation.com/councils-are-opening-the-door-to-tiny-houses-as-a-quick-affordable-and-green-solution-217267

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samantha Happé, Graduate researcher in art history and material culture studies, The University of Melbourne

As we get closer to Christmas, your family will probably have some kind of gathering. You will reunite with people who you might not see any other time. There will be some awkward small talk, everyone will start off on their best behaviour, there will be too much food, and presents will be exchanged.

Sometimes, despite our best intentions, there are mismatched or underwhelming gifts that can lead to subtle tensions, which persist throughout the day.

But there is a field of academic research that can help with your gift giving. “Diplomatic gift studies” blends material culture studies with history and sociology. It considers gifts being “lost in translation” as they move across cultural spheres. It can explain everything – after all, what is a Christmas gathering if not a type of diplomatic mission?

Here are five things you can keep in mind to smooth things out and help you have the best gift-giving experience this Christmas.

Read more:
The science of gift wrapping explains why sloppy is better

1. Understand the group’s traditions

Picture this: it’s the first time at your in-laws’ Christmas. You bought a playful Secret Santa gift just perfect for your own family – a large box filled with a packet of prunes, toilet paper rolls and yesterday’s news.

Turns out, the gathering you’ve just walked into plays by a whole different set of rules. Awkward, right?

This happened to a friend of mine who was unaware of his in-laws’ tradition of thoughtful heartfelt gifts. Instead, he had chosen something that worked with his family custom of joke presents.

These situations are the most common with people who are – like my friend – newcomers to a gathering. They didn’t grow up with the same kind of Christmas you had and don’t have the same traditions.

Make sure you brief anyone who is new to your gathering about what your family generally does. If you are the newcomer, ask what they typically do for presents.

Read more:
How to play and win the gift-stealing game Bad Santa, according to a mathematician

2. Don’t assume presents based on someone’s age

Navigating the gifting landscape across different generations is like cracking a complex code. This is made more difficult if you don’t know the person well. To solve this, you might end up buying something you think someone their age typically likes.

As a teenager, a close friend once received a mini handbag from a distant aunt – a few years after they were popular. By the time the “cool” gift idea traversed the generational gap and reached the aunt, it was outdated.

Sometimes, our assumptions about different age groups can go awry. Ask someone who knows the person about what they specifically like.

3. Give a gift they want – not what you want

We’ve all unwrapped that one present where we’ve wondered where on earth it fits into our lives. I once received a large, ceramic bowl for Christmas. I had nowhere to put it – my husband and I didn’t entertain or hold dinner parties. It was way too large for the two of us and not suited to our tastes.

I thought about the person who gave it to me – did it match their own interests and preferences? In this case, they’d shopped from their heart, forgetting their taste didn’t necessarily align with mine, and had bought something that they personally liked and wanted. They meant well.

Read more:
How to choose the right Christmas gift: tips from psychological research

4. Think about value in the long term

Gift giving is ideally an equal exchange: you give and receive presents of the same approximate value. At the end of the day, when it’s time to go home, there is balance.

But sometimes the balance tips. You receive something more expensive than what you gave. It can make you feel like you are in that person’s debt, and you feel pressured to match their present the next time.

Before stressing, consider the bigger picture. What did you gift them last year? Or did you help them out in another way and they’re showing their appreciation now?

Sometimes, it’s about evening out the scales over time.

5. Reflect on the intentions behind a gift

One year, when I was 15, I received a set of shower products from a relative. Was this a subtle hint about my personal hygiene? Perhaps. Or was it a well-meaning attempt from someone who just didn’t know my style and bought something smelling nice, which a teenage girl could use?

It’s important to peel back the layers and understand the intentions behind a gift. Think about the person who is giving it, not just the present itself. That way, you avoid jumping to conclusions and appreciate the gesture for what it is.

End-of-year family gatherings can be a wonderful time, where we slow down and relax. We eat, drink and make merry with people who we care about. We give presents with the best of intentions, but some will probably miss the mark.

If this happens, remember it’s the thought behind them that truly counts.

Read more:
The hidden psychology of the Christmas ‘poker face’

This piece is for my late husband, Christopher Lee, who suggested my research could apply to Christmas gift giving. Miss you.

Samantha Happé does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. I’m an expert in diplomatic gift giving. Here are my 5 top tips for the best Christmas present exchange – https://theconversation.com/im-an-expert-in-diplomatic-gift-giving-here-are-my-5-top-tips-for-the-best-christmas-present-exchange-218819

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wesley Morgan, Research Fellow, Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith University

The federal government has announced an extra A$150 million for climate finance – including $100 million for the Pacific to help protect its people, housing and infrastructure from the escalating impacts of global warming.

It comes as Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen lands in Dubai for international negotiations at the 28th United Nations climate summit. At the end of the hottest year on record, these talks focus on accelerating climate action in line with the Paris Agreement.

While new funding is undoubtedly important and can go a long way to supporting community-led resilience-building efforts in the region, Australia will be under growing pressure to do more.

A growing number of countries, including the European Union and Pacific island nations, want to see global agreement at COP28 for a managed phase-out of fossil fuels.

Many observers are sceptical that COP28 can deliver consensus on shifting away from coal, oil and gas, because host nation the United Arab Emirates is a major oil exporter. This is a problem Australia also faces – having volunteered to host UN climate talks in 2026, in partnership with Pacific island countries. Today, Australia exports almost three times as much fossil fuels as the UAE. Dozens of new coal and gas projects are lining up for approval.

Today’s announcement must not be a substitute for addressing the root causes of the climate crisis. Australia must stop approving new coal, oil and gas projects. And we must back agreement at COP28 for the phase-out of fossil fuels.

Read more:
After decades putting the brakes on global action, does Australia deserve to host UN climate talks with Pacific nations?

What’s in today’s announcement?

Australia will kickstart the Pacific’s first resilience financing facility with $100 million, and rejoin the Green Climate Fund with a $50 million contribution. As the government says in today’s joint statement:

Climate change is the single greatest threat to the livelihoods, security and wellbeing of climate vulnerable countries and regions, including the peoples of the Pacific.

Sea-level rise, stronger cyclones, marine heatwaves and increasingly acidic oceans pose existential threats to many Pacific islands. Low-lying atoll nations such as Kiribati and Tuvalu are especially vulnerable.

Australia certainly has a responsibility to help Pacific communities adapt. Supporting the Pacific-led, owned and managed Pacific Resilience Facility is an important step.

The facility was proposed by island leaders as a regional fund that would help island communities build resilience to climate impacts, and would be driven by Pacific priorities.

It was established partly in response to concerns that other large multilateral funds are difficult for Pacific island countries to access, and are not geared to support community-scale projects. These locally driven solutions and community projects deserve our support.

The Australian government says it will support locally led, small-scale projects:

This includes grants for climate adaptation, disaster preparedness, nature-based solutions and projects which respond to loss and damage.

Note the words “loss and damage” – the sole mention of those words in today’s announcement. Bowen has so far been hesitant to make any commitment to the new global Loss and Damage Fund, to be administered by the World Bank.

Read more:
Politics with Michelle Grattan: Chris Bowen’s struggle to promote consensus on climate action at COP28

Rejoining the Green Climate Fund

The world’s largest global climate fund, the Green Climate Fund, was set up in 2015 as part of the Paris Agreement. It has approved projects across 128 countries.

Australian diplomat Howard Bamsey was previously Executive Director of the Green Climate Fund and Australia was able to direct the multilateral fund to support initiatives in our region.

But the Morrison government withdrew Australia from the fund in 2018. We should never have left. It was a rash decision, announced by the then Prime Minister Scott Morrison live on air while talking to radio host Alan Jones.

Rejoining the Green Climate Fund makes good sense for Australian diplomacy and relations with countries in our region. By rejoining the fund, Australia can effectively advocate for funding to meet Pacific needs.

Australia should contribute to the new Loss and Damage Fund

Providing finance to help Pacific communities deal with growing climate impacts is a positive step, but Australia also needs to contribute to the newly established fund to address loss and damage that is now unavoidable.

The establishment of the global Loss and Damage Fund at the beginning of COP28 last week was a major breakthrough, and a real win for Pacific island countries.

Vanuatu first proposed a global fund in the early 1990s. The idea was polluters would pay for the damage they were causing.

This is different to climate finance for adaptation. It is meant to deal with things you really can’t adapt to, such as loss of lives after a major cyclone, or damage to crucial infrastructure after coastal inundation.

Finalising such a fund means wealthy nations and major emitters must now allocate funds to address these forms of loss and damage in the Pacific.

With other nations – including the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, the UAE and Germany – already making announcements to contribute to this new Loss and Damage Fund, Australia must also do its part.

Australia should be supporting our Pacific neighbours by actively contributing to this global fund and recognising our responsibilities as a major fossil fuel producer.

Read more:
COP28 climate summit just approved a ‘loss and damage’ fund. What does this mean?

Committing to fossil fuel phase out key to winning Pacific support

The only way to actually stop harming communities in the Pacific is to stop adding fuel to the fire. That means stopping the approval of new coal, oil and gas projects and committing to a managed phase-out of fossil fuels.

Australia has put up its hand to host COP31 with Pacific island countries in 2026.
To be a successful host of the UN climate talks, Australia will need to actively support the Pacific’s fight for survival. We can’t just keep throwing money at the problem. We need to be part of the solution.

Wesley Morgan is a senior researcher with the Climate Council

– ref. Helping the Pacific financially is a great start – but Australia must act on the root cause of the climate crisis – https://theconversation.com/helping-the-pacific-financially-is-a-great-start-but-australia-must-act-on-the-root-cause-of-the-climate-crisis-219399

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Bill Shorten, Minister for the National Disability Insurance Scheme and Government Services, has released the review of the NDIS, which recommends sweeping changes to the scheme. The reforms to come will see the states take up much of the responsibility for providing services for people with more minor issues, especially children with developmental delays.

Shorten joined the podcast to talk about the way ahead for a scheme that has run off the rails and become financially unsustainable.

At the centre of the changes is that:

We want to make sure that it’s not just diagnosis which puts you in the scheme – that we look at your disability and then we look at how it affects your daily living and see if the scheme is the right thing to assist you.

But Shorten is quick to reassure that everyone who needs it will be cared for. He points out that disability is universal, in the sense that

You can get it at birth, you can get it through the DNA lottery code you have. Or in the blink of an eye, you know, in a swimming injury or on a country road. So it’s a universal challenge and people shouldn’t be written off because they have an impairment. So it’s on all of us to improve the game.

When pressed on whether the reforms will bring losers, Shorten homes on those doing the wrong thing:

Some of the bad businesses are going to be losers. Some of the people who are not value adding the system, they’re going to be losers. But going to participants, this system will mean that if you need support, that’s what you’re going to get.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Bill Shorten on making the NDIS fit for purpose – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-bill-shorten-on-making-the-ndis-fit-for-purpose-219401

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

It’s not just kids who get report cards (PDFs these days) as school breaks up. So do government ministers, when parliament rises at year’s end.

Judgments about how members of the team have performed, often public but also private, are made by stakeholders, the media, colleagues and ultimately the prime minister.

As Christmas looms, the Minister for the National Disability Insurance Scheme, Bill Shorten, and Workplace Relations Minister, Tony Burke will be reckoning they deserve As.

Shorten this week has not only launched his review of the NDIS, but seen national cabinet agree to a deal to curb the scheme’s cost explosion, shifting (with the way smoothed by generous Commonwealth funding) some of the responsibility for disability services onto the states.

Shorten can claim to be the original “father” of the NDIS in the days of the former Labor goverrnment; having to reshape it to make it sustainable is the classic poisoned chalice, but he was the best person in the government for the task.

We won’t know for several years how well the changes of the NDIS itself and the federal-state agreement for more service-sharing are actually working. It will be a long reform process, and much will depend on whether the states meet their obligations. But a direction has been set.

Burke this week will be receiving high marks from the unions. Right at the end of the parliamentary sitting he clinched a deal with Senate crossbenchers, notably David Pocock and Jacqui Lambie, to pass key parts of his industrial relations legislation, dealing with labour hire misuse and wage theft. This followed the crossbench earlier wanting the passage before Christmas of several non-controversial measures in the omnibus bill.

Parts of the legislation, covering protections for gig economy and casual workers, remain held up until next year, but Burke has secured more of it this year than seemed likely only a few days ago.

For some other ministers, their end-of-year assessments say “substantial improvement needed”.

Most recently, Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil and Immigration Minister Andrew Giles have struggled with the confronting test thrown at them by the High Court, forcing the release of people from immigration detention.

The government should have been prepared for all eventualities, even if it thought this particular outcome was unlikely. It should have had legislation ready to go. That it did not is as much (or more) the fault of the public servants as of the ministers, but it’s the ministers who have to carry the responsibility.

The sprawling Home Affairs Department appears dysfunctional, with long-term problems and low morale. One of O’Neil’s priorities in coming months has to be to demand it is put into more effective shape. After the sacking of former departmental head Mike Pezzullo for breaching the Public Service Code, O’Neil will be relying on the new secretary, Stephanie Foster (whose appointment was not without some controversy), to drive the bureaucratic changes.

O’Neil, whose vast empire ranges from cyber security to migration and border security, has plenty of potential but a style that usually defaults to the politics. It’s a better look when a minister rations their attacks on their opponents. This government in general and O’Neil in particular too often seem preoccupied with Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.

O’Neil is about to have another late-year test, when the government releases its migration policy. She’ll be glad of a respite from the ex-detainees imbroglio, but migration is an inherently fraught area. The policy, many months in the making, will have to be well-pitched, with answers to whatever criticisms emerge.

Giles, meanwhile, is in charge of administering the preventative detention scheme the parliament approved on Wednesday – making applications to court for the re-detention of people who previously committed major crimes and are considered to pose high risks of doing so again.

That will apply to only a limited number of the former detainees. If others, who are still in the community, are arrested, Giles will have to deal with bouts of bad publicity. (So far, five have been arrested.)

For a couple of other ministers, it’s been a very difficult year. Minister for Indigenous Australians Linda Burney found the referendum campaign a constant battle and the defeat shattering. Burney must put that behind her and turn her efforts to beefing up measures for closing the gap, an enormously hard task.

Infrastructure and Transport Minister Catherine King has been on the back foot on two fronts. Her handling of the bid by Qatar Airways for more flights saw her produce an increasing number of explanations for rejecting it but not any of them convincing.

More seriously, her announcement of the government’s cuts to parts of the infrastructure program (though not the total value of the program) has produced blowback from the states. There will be ongoing arguments about the details that will put further pressure on King.

In contrast, ministers such as Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Foreign Minister Penny Wong have travelled well this year. Chalmers has pushed into other areas (especially energy) and is visibly broadening and grooming himself as heir apparent.

As Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister, Richard Marles presents better in government than he did in opposition, although some experts question the adequacy and implementation of his defence policy and his excessive use of VIP planes has brought criticism.

Education Minister Jason Clare performs convincingly but his tests are still to come, especially as Australia grapples with how to improve school outcomes (this week’s PISA results reinforced how imperative this is).

The jury will be out for a long time on the performance of Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen, who is wrangling the early stages of the transition to a clean energy economy. The government has the targets and framework in place, but delivery is not straightforward and Bowen can be slow to admit when things are not on track.

Some commentators suggest a reshuffle is needed, but that would seem premature. However, more active prime ministerial and cabinet oversight is certainly required to sharpen the performance of the team.

What about the boss? Anthony Albanese is receiving poor marks just now. But things can change quickly.

This week parliamentarians mourned the death of Peta Murphy, a popular and effective Labor MP who lost a long battle with cancer. A byelection will be held early next year in her Victorian seat of Dunkley, which is on a margin of more than 6%. This real-time electoral test for both Albanese and Dutton could set the political mood in the days leading up to the government’s next budget.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Grattan on Friday: winners and losers in end-of-year report card on Albanese ministers – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-winners-and-losers-in-end-of-year-report-card-on-albanese-ministers-219393

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bradley Smith, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, CQUniversity Australia

For many of us, dogs are our best friends. But have you wondered what would happen to your dog if we suddenly disappeared? Can domestic dogs make do without people?

At least 80% of the world’s one billion or so dogs actually live independent, free-ranging lives – and they offer some clues. Who would our dogs be if we weren’t around to influence and care for them?

What are dogs?

Dogs hold the title of the most successful domesticated species on Earth. For millennia they have evolved under our watchful eye. More recently, selective breeding has led to people-driven diversity, resulting in unique breeds ranging from the towering Great Dane to the tiny Chihuahua.

Humanity’s quest for the perfect canine companion has resulted in more than 400 modern dog breeds with unique blends of physical and behavioural traits. Initially, dogs were bred primarily for functional roles that benefited us, such as herding, hunting and guarding. This practice only emerged prominently over the past 200 years.

Some experts suggest companionship is just another type of work humans selected dogs for, while placing a greater emphasis on looks. Breeders play a crucial role in this, making deliberate choices about which traits are desirable, thereby influencing the future direction of breeds.

Are we good for dogs?

We know certain features that appeal to people have serious impacts on health and happiness. For instance, flat-faced dogs struggle with breathing due to constricted nasal passages and shortened airways. This “air hunger” has been likened to experiencing an asthma attack. These dogs are also prone to higher rates of skin, eye and dental problems compared with dogs with longer muzzles.

Many modern dogs depend on human medical intervention to reproduce. For instance, French Bulldogs and Chihuahuas frequently require a caesarean section to give birth, as the puppies’ heads are very large compared with the mother’s pelvic width. This reliance on surgery to breed highlights the profound impact intensive selective breeding has on dogs.

And while domestic dogs can benefit from being part of human families, some live highly isolated and controlled lives in which they have little agency to make choices – a factor that’s important to their happiness.

Read more:
In an Australian first, the ACT may legally recognise animals’ feelings

Dogs without us

Now imagine a world where dogs are free from the guiding hand of human selection and care. The immediate impact would be stark. Breeds that are heavily dependent on us for basic needs such as food, shelter and healthcare wouldn’t do well. They would struggle to adapt, and many would succumb to the harsh realities of a life without human support.

That said, this would probably impact fewer than 20% of all dogs (roughly the percentage living in our homes). Most of the world’s dogs are free-ranging and prevalent across Europe, Africa and Asia.

But while these dogs aren’t domesticated in a traditional sense, they still coexist with humans. As such, their survival depends almost exclusively on human-made resources such as garbage dumps and food handouts. Without people, natural selection would swiftly come into play. Dogs that lack essential survival traits such as adaptability, hunting skills, disease resistance, parental instincts and sociability would gradually decline.

Dogs that are either extremely large or extremely small would also be at a disadvantage, because a dog’s size will impact its caloric needs, body temperature regulation across environments, and susceptibility to predators.

Limited behavioural strategies, such as being too shy to explore new areas, would also be detrimental. And although sterilised dogs might have advantageous survival traits, they would be unable to pass their genes on to future generations.

No more designer breeds

Ultimately, a different type of dog would emerge, shaped by health and behavioural success rather than human desires.

Dogs don’t select mates based on breed, and will readily mate with others that look very different to them when given the opportunity. Over time, distinct dog breeds would fade and unrestricted mating would lead to a uniform “village dog” appearance, similar to “camp dogs” in remote Indigenous Australian communities and dogs seen in South-East Asia.

These dogs typically have a medium size, balanced build, short coats in various colours, and upright ears and tails. However, regional variations such as a shaggier coat could arise due to factors such as climate.

In the long term, dogs would return to a wild canid lifestyle. These “re-wilded” dogs would likely adopt social and dietary behaviours similar to those of their current wild counterparts, such as Australia’s dingoes. This might include living in small family units within defined territories, reverting to an annual breeding season, engaging in social hunting, and attentive parental care (especially from dads).

This transition would be more feasible for certain breeds, particularly herding types and those already living independently in the wild or as village dogs.

What makes a good life for dogs?

In their book A Dog’s World, Jessica Pierce and Marc Bekoff explore the idea of “doomsday prepping” our dogs for a future without people. They encourage us to give our dogs more agency, and consequently more happiness. This could be as simple as letting them pick which direction to walk in, or letting them take their time when sniffing a tree.

As we reflect on a possible future without dogs, an important question arises: are our actions towards dogs sustainable, in their best interests, and true to their nature? Or are they more aligned with our own desires?

By considering how dogs might live without us, perhaps we can find ways to improve their lives with us.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. If humans disappeared, what would happen to our dogs? – https://theconversation.com/if-humans-disappeared-what-would-happen-to-our-dogs-218703

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christian Downie, Associate Professor, Australian National University

Until recently, financing fossil fuel projects has been relatively easy.

But that is slowly changing. At the COP28 climate negotiations yesterday, Australia announced it will sign the Glasgow Statement and will no longer finance international oil, gas and coal projects. Domestic projects are not part of the agreement.

Major Australian allies such as the United States and United Kingdom, as well as 32 other nations and five public banks, made this commitment in 2021. It’s an agreement between governments and public financial agencies such as development banks and export credit agencies to end all new public financing for unabated fossil fuel projects.

By joining, Australia will make it harder to mobilise finance for fossil fuel projects that produce millions of tonnes of emissions, and make it easier to fund renewable energy projects that produce very little.

It’s the latest in a welcome series of signals that the international community is slowly turning off the tap for new fossil fuels.

Phasing down or phasing out?

Australia’s decision to join the agreement comes amid intense negotiations at COP28 in Dubai this week over whether governments will commit to “phasing out” or “phasing down” fossil fuel use.

It might sound like quibbling, but this linguistic distinction carries major implications for global climate change. Phasing out means ending the routine burning of fossil fuels entirely. Phasing down means we will keep burning them but at a reduced rate – and that means some level of fossil fuel investment will continue.

Under the International Energy Agency’s 2050 net zero plan, there are no new oil, natural gas or coal projects beyond those already approved in 2021.

Even reduced levels of fossil fuel investment will derail the possibility of averting global warming’s worst consequences.

Read more:
As disasters and heat intensify, can the world meet the urgency of the moment at the COP28 climate talks?

Why does international public finance for energy matter?

If the world is to limit global average temperature rise to 2°C, we will need financial institutions on board. That’s because current estimates suggest we need A$2.3 trillion every year to 2030 to meet existing targets to build low-carbon and climate-resilient infrastructure in low- and middle-income countries alone.

To source that kind of finance means we need all financial institutions – including state-backed banks which often favour new coal, gas or oil projects – to pull finance out of new fossil fuels and pump it into clean energy.

Australia is a relatively small player when it comes to public energy finance. Our research shows Australia’s official export credit agency, Export Finance Australia, invested $11.45 billion in fossil fuel projects from 2009 to 2021. That sounds like a lot, but it’s peanuts compared with the US and Canadian equivalents, which shelled out A$348 billion and A$560 billion respectively over the same period. Japan, South Korea and China’s agencies each spent more than $100 billion in that period – and show no indication of ending their fossil fuel investments.

Even so, Australia’s commitment is significant because it adds to the growing number of public and private banks internationally that are reconsidering their investment in fossil fuel infrastructure such as new oil pipelines, gas platforms and coal-fired power plants. The move also places greater pressure on Japan and South Korea, the other wealthy democracies in the Asia-Pacific yet to sign the agreement.

Read more:
COP28 president is wrong – science clearly shows fossil fuels must go (and fast)

This is welcome – but long overdue

As climate change damage has intensified over the past two decades, export credit agencies and development banks have been busy pouring tens of billions of dollars a year into fossil fuel projects. It’s not small change – from 2006 to 2022, these funds amount to more than $1.5 trillion. That money has directly led to the construction of countless dirty energy projects around the globe.

In 2020, for instance, the US, UK, Japan, Italy and other nations financially backed Total’s controversial multibillion-dollar liquefied natural gas project in Mozambique, including long-term infrastructure such as offshore drilling wells, offshore pipelines, and port facilities.

Once built, these fossil fuel infrastructure projects can lock in carbon-intensive futures for developing nations. As scientific research has shown, international public finance for coal-fired power plants early in a country’s energy development leads directly to a long-term reliance on fossil fuels.

Worse, as global population growth is heavily concentrated in less developed countries, these are the countries that will have to dramatically increase energy production to meet the needs of their societies. They cannot be locked in to fossil fuels.

To avoid this, green investment must accelerate and displace brown (fossil fuel) investment to avoid a rapid escalation of fossil fuel dependency across the Global South.

In better news, every dollar public banks turn away from fossil fuel projects is a dollar towards the trillions we need invested every year to meet the world’s global clean energy infrastructure goals.

Publicly backed banks play a crucial role in attracting private investment by taking on riskier debts than the market will, especially in developing countries where risk insurance is often needed to help get projects across the line.

Australia’s commitment will be welcomed by our acutely climate-exposed neighbours in the Pacific and give us a stronger position to lead on climate in our region.

The next step will be much harder, but also more significant: making the same commitment at home and actually drying up the pipeline of new gas and coal projects.

Read more:
Vast subsidies keeping the fossil fuel industry afloat should be put to better use

Christian Downie receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Maxfield Peterson receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. COP28: Turning the tap off slowly – why Australia’s decision to end overseas fossil fuel finance matters – https://theconversation.com/cop28-turning-the-tap-off-slowly-why-australias-decision-to-end-overseas-fossil-fuel-finance-matters-219318

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Brown, Senior Research Fellow, La Trobe University

Findings from an extensive review of the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) have been released with ideas on how to transform it. Led by co-chairs Bruce Bonyhady and Lisa Paul, the review heard from around 10,000 people before making 26 recommendations with 139 supporting actions. Presenting their findings, co-chairs wrote:

We must return to the principle that NDIS eligibility is based first and foremost on functional impairment rather than medical diagnosis.

The review identified challenges including greater than expected growth and unclear criteria for reasonable and necessary supports, “which create complexity, stress, inconsistency and mistrust”.

Key recommendations include:

• National Cabinet to jointly design and fund foundational disability support outside the NDIS
• navigators to help participants get the services they need
• providers to be registered and compliant with new standards
• needs assessments to gauge the impact of disability rather than lists of diagnoses for access
• more consistent housing supports for people with disability
• disability support access for older Australians.

The recommendations follow yesterday’s National Cabinet cost-sharing deal and take in findings from the disability royal commission. The government says it will announce reforms based on the recommendations in 2024. It hopes to constrain annual growth to 8% by 2026.

Read more:
States agree to do more heavy lifting on disability, in exchange for extra health and GST funding

We asked five experts for their initial reaction to the recommendations:

Mark Brown – social researcher

The NDIS review found while the scheme has transformed the lives of thousands of people with disability, it is not efficient or fair. Design flaws in the way the scheme operates mean the NDIS is on its way to being the most expensive disability system in the world.

The idea that disability supports are an ecosystem, and that multiple governments, departments, service sectors, and communities must share responsibility reflects the reality that people with disability are diverse and live in the real world, with all its complexities.

There will be some fears the review panel is recommending a more complicated and confusing system. People with the most complex needs may rightly wonder whether they will fall through the cracks in the interfaces between systems. (Unclear responsibilities have been a major cause of young people becoming needlessly stranded in aged care.) But the current approach, which relies almost solely on individualised funding, has proven to be very complicated in practice.

The panel’s recommendations seem like a reasonable framework for change, but they aren’t a precise blueprint. The effect on people with disability, families, and support workers will depend on the detail and implementation. There are still many difficult conversations to have.

Read more:
What the NDIS needs to do to rebuild trust, in the words of the people who use it

Anne Kavanagh – disability and health

The NDIS review offers a new vision on how to move to a sustainable NDIS that will serve Australians into the future. The establishment of a new Disability Intergovernmental Agreement to provide supports within the NDIS and outside it is welcome. Many people with disability not on the NDIS are missing out on essential supports.

The establishment of national councils and committees to enable people with disability to advise government and people with disability and other experts to monitor performance and assess evidence should lead to greater accountability and access to better quality support.

After ten years we would expect an evidence base on what works. The proposed Disability Research and Evaluation fund must be adequately resourced to address this evidence gap and implement innovative practice.

The focus on the regulation of unregistered providers will be of concern to many people with disability. This has been the way many of us have been able to access the supports we want. It needs to be remembered regulation does not equate to safety. We have seen many registered providers who have perpetrated abuse and neglect on people with disability.

I welcome the increased flexibility in relation home and living supports but it will be important to make sure the requirement to share home and living supports with two other people does not continue the segregated living environments we have been fighting to prevent for so long. Instead I hope this flexibility enables people with disability to make real choices around who they live with and where.

Ensuring people with disability are part of community, often facilitated by independent support workers, provides natural safeguarding against abuse and neglect.

Read more:
NDIS cost scrutiny is intensifying again – the past shows this can harm health and wellbeing for people with disability

Libby Callaway – rehabilitation, ageing and independent living

There is general agreement the NDIS has become the “oasis in the desert” of disability services.

The NDIS review final report recommends a strong focus on strengthening other mainstream systems or “foundational supports” – like the early childhood, education and health systems – for all people with disability. This is encouraging but it will be important to monitor how the funding agreements negotiated via National Cabinet actually deliver enhanced services for people with disability and their families.

Past redirection of disability funding into the NDIS has left large service gaps. People of all ages and abilities lost programs that benefited them, such as state-based aids and equipment libraries or independent living centres. To address this, the NDIS review highlights the need to increase information and capacity building supports across key areas, including assistive technology and housing options.

It will be important to understand more about the vision for “preferred provider” arrangements referred to in the report. The review makes it clear reforms should be implemented in a staged process over five years. Further engagement and co-design with people with disability and their families will be vital to this.

Read more:
Government plans to use NDIS purchasing power to help save billions – but they shouldn’t put products before people

David Trembath – autism and public health

The review has a lot to say about supports for the 20% of Australian children with developmental differences, delay, and disability. It recommends bolstering mainstream services and supports, such as inclusive childcare. That means the majority of these children could have their needs met outside the NDIS in the coming years. This seems like a sensible approach – meeting children and families where they are at and building more inclusive communities. It will require substantial investment, a big shift in thinking, and a strong focus on community-driven solutions.

Funding for individual supports will still be available, but the review recommends access be determined through a more rigorous assessment of children’s functional needs, not simply diagnoses. The focus is on supports for children with the most complex disability needs. Removing the link between diagnosis and access should return attention to what is most important for planning – children’s functional strengths and support needs. It should reduce the challenges many parents face in accessing timely, affordable and appropriate assessment.

Overall, the recommendations are a step in the right direction, provided children and families are at the centre of every decision and change that affects them.

Read more:
New national autism guideline will finally give families a roadmap for therapy decisions

Scott Avery – Indigenous disability research

The barometer for judging the NDIS review is the extent to which it advances a vision for a disability services sector that is anti-ableist and anti-racist, and accommodates a First Nations culture inclusive of people with disability in both word and action.

There is one overarching recommendation that is specific to First Nations people with disability which is for the establishment of an alternative commissioning process to be creating in partnership with First Nations representatives, communities, participants and relevant government agencies. This can be read alongside the recommendations of the disability royal commission to make the NDIS more inclusive of First Nations decision-making in its governance and leadership.

What is understated in this report and others is the extent of the organisational change the NDIS and other organisations in the disability sector need to own to give meaningful effect to the dream of an authentically inclusive scheme.

First Nations people with disability have been lending their wisdom and voice to one inquiry or another for what has seemed like a generation. Each inquiry has delved deeply into the trauma stories from our community, but at the same time has placed decision-making on implementation into a holding pattern. Disability community leadership and self-determination seems to be the consensus recommendation both the NDIS review and the disability royal commission have landed on. Can we now just get on with it please?

Read more:
Indigenous people with disability have a double disadvantage and the NDIS can’t handle that

Mark Brown is an Honorary Research Fellow at La Trobe University and a Senior Research Fellow at the Summer Foundation. He is also an NDIS participant.

Anne Kavanagh receives funding from NHMRC, ARC, MRFF and the Commonwealth government,

David Trembath receives research funding from Autism CRC for research focused on assessing children’s functional strengths and support needs, as well as from the Commonwealth Department of Health, Medical Research Future Fund, and Playgroup NSW Inc. His position at Griffith University is co-funded by CliniKids, Telethon Kids Institute. David has family members who access the NDIS.

Libby Callaway receives funding from the Commonwealth Government Department of Health and Ageing and Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute. She is the voluntary President of the Australian Rehabilitation and Assistive Technology Association and a voluntary Board Member of the Homer Hack.

Scott Avery is a profoundly deaf Aboriginal educator and researcher from the Worimi people. This commentary are provide in am independent capacity and are not intended to represent the views of any other person or organisation in any official capacity. Dr Scott Avery receives research funding from the First Peoples Disability Network under the First Nations Disability Sector Strengthening initiative under the National Agreement for Closing the Gap, that is administered by the National Indigenous Insurance Agency. He is a member of the First Nations Advisory Group of the National Disability Insurance Agency. He is a Director on the Board of disability service provider Achieve Australia.

– ref. Recommendations to reboot the NDIS have finally been released. 5 experts react – https://theconversation.com/recommendations-to-reboot-the-ndis-have-finally-been-released-5-experts-react-215805

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexander Plum, Senior Research Fellow in Applied Labour Economics, Auckland University of Technology

New Zealand has made substantial progress on promoting LGBTQ+ rights over the past 20 years, including legalising same-sex civil unions in 2004, legalising same-sex marriage in 2013, and banning conversion practices in 2022.

One thing missing, however, is a clear view of the employment prospects and experiences of the LGBTQ+ population.

Most studies from overseas show varying income patterns, with gay men generally earning less than heterosexual men, and lesbian women paid more than heterosexual women.

Our new research provides the first empirical evidence of the relationship between minority sexual orientation and the labour market earnings of New Zealand adults. And it looks like the patterns seen overseas are being replicated locally.

Identifying LGBTQ+ couples

One of the biggest challenges for empirical research such as ours is the lack of relevant data on the LGBTQ+ population. Barring a few nationally representative surveys, there aren’t many sources of economic data that allow identification of individuals belonging to the Rainbow+ community.

To address this information gap, we used various administrative data sets in Stats NZ’s Integrated Data Infrastructure. Specifically, we used data from the 2013 and 2018 Censuses, which included a household roster with detailed information on relationships among individuals.

Read more:
We asked same-gender couples how they share the ‘mental load’ at home. The results might surprise you

This allowed us to identify households with two adults of the same sex, where the second adult is described as the spouse or de-facto partner of the person completing the forms. We compared this with individuals in different-sex relationships (as opposed to heterosexual, as some partners may identify as bisexual).

Additionally, our analysis focused on full-time working adults aged between 25 and 64, who were unlikely to be pursuing further education during the period of our analysis.

Earning profile by sexual orientation

We linked our sample to the Inland Revenue’s individual tax records, which have detailed information on labour market earnings.

Individuals in same-sex couples appeared to be younger, more likely to have a bachelor’s degree, more likely to live in the urban areas of Auckland or Wellington, and less likely to be married than individuals in different-sex couples. We accounted for these differences in our main analysis.

We found that women in same-sex couples earn 6-7% more than similarly situated women in different-sex couples. For men, the opposite pattern emerged. Men in same-sex couples earned significantly less than otherwise similar men in different-sex couples by an average difference of 6-7%.

We also looked into different sub-groups, such as the marital status of the couple, the duration of cohabitation, or the location of residence and so on.

Importantly, there was no meaningful change in the earnings differences from 2013 to 2018, despite continued improvement in societal attitudes toward sexual minorities.

We also found the earnings differences were larger for married individuals than for people in de-facto relationships for both men and women in same-sex couples.

The earnings differences were smaller for younger individuals (under 45 years old) for both men and women in same-sex couples, compared to their counterparts in different-sex couples. The earnings deficit for men in same-sex couples was also significantly smaller in major cities like Auckland and Wellington, than in the rest of the country.

Gaps in the data

The gaps in available data mean our study has some limitations. Firstly, we do not have direct information about people’s sexual orientation.

Also, we were unable to identify single or non-partnered sexual minorities whose labour market experiences may differ. Hopefully, results from the 2023 Census will provide new insights. For the first time, this year’s census included questions about gender and sexual identity.

Finally, the data used to identify same-sex couples depends on individuals reporting they are in a same-sex romantic relationship, which may be under-reported due to stigma.

The road ahead

Empirical research documenting the wellbeing of Aotearoa’s LGBTQ+ population is important from a policy perspective. For example, there is ample evidence of significant disparities in the mental health and wellbeing of Aotearoa’s Rainbow+ youth. There have been recent efforts to address the common data-related challenges that will help inform these policies.

Read more:
How parenthood continues to cost women more than men

Our study is part of a much wider ongoing international collaboration with the LGBTQ+ Policy Lab at Vanderbilt University.

The aim is to understand the experiences and life outcomes of individuals belonging to the Rainbow+ community. We hope to develop a knowledge base that taps into the social, economic, physical and mental wellbeing of sexual and gender minorities in Aotearoa New Zealand.

Understanding the experiences of this community will help us build on the progress of the past two decades to create a more inclusive Aotearoa New Zealand.

Alexander Plum received funding from the Health Research Council (HRC).

The views here are the authors’ own and do not reflect those of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Federal
Reserve System, or Statistics New Zealand.

– ref. Sexual orientation and earnings appear to be linked – but patterns differ for NZ men and women – https://theconversation.com/sexual-orientation-and-earnings-appear-to-be-linked-but-patterns-differ-for-nz-men-and-women-218507

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James D Metzger, Senior Lecturer in Law & Justice, UNSW Sydney

How many times have you booked travel – like a cruise or a tour – and simply clicked that you’ve read and agreed to the terms and conditions for your trip without actually reading them?

What if something went wrong on your trip and it turned out the terms you didn’t read prevented you from suing in certain courts?

This was just one problem faced by some of the passengers on the now infamous Ruby Princess cruise ship, which was supposed to be making a pleasant trip from Sydney to New Zealand and back in March 2020, but instead became the location for one of the most well-known early outbreaks of COVID.

Now, the High Court has found that consumers can be protected even if they haven’t fully read their terms and even if they were outside Australia when they accepted them.

Read more:
Stormy seas ahead: confidence in the cruise industry has plummeted due to COVID-19

Class action against cruise lines

As a result of the outbreak, Susan Karpik brought a class action suit in the Federal Court of Australia against Carnival plc and Princess Cruise Lines Ltd, the owners and operators of the ship.

The suit alleged that Princess had not taken appropriate safety precautions to best ensure passengers did not get COVID while on board. Karpik won her suit on her own claims, with the Federal Court finding Princess was liable to her, including for damages related to her husband’s death from COVID.

This was also a win for the other 2,600 passengers, who can now rely on the Federal Court’s ruling that safety precautions were not taken.

Read more:
If you want to avoid ‘giving away your first born’ make sure you read the terms and conditions before signing contracts

Karpik and most of the Ruby Princess passengers were subject to Australian terms and conditions for their travel. However, nearly 700 passengers were subject to US terms and conditions.

These terms stated that any lawsuit related to travel on the Ruby Princess could only be brought in US Federal Court in Los Angeles, California, and that passengers were not allowed to sue in a class action – known as a class action waiver.

This means any lawsuit could only be brought individually, something that could be very expensive for each of the passengers. Princess argued that these passengers were bound by the US terms and therefore could not be part of the Australian class action.

International complications

The 700 passengers were represented by Patrick Ho, a Canadian citizen who had booked his cruise through a Canadian travel agent. He argued he was not made sufficiently aware of the US terms for them to apply. He also argued the class action waiver was unfair under Australian law and so could not be enforced.

Judge Stewart of the Federal Court agreed with some of these arguments and found the class action waiver was unfair under the Australian consumer law and that Ho could remain in the class.

But Princess then appealed to the Full Federal Court, which disagreed with Judge Stewart and found Ho had sufficient notice of the US terms before taking his trip and had agreed to them.

The court also found no unfairness in any of the terms under Australian law. This meant that Ho – and the 700 other passengers – could not be part of the Australian class, or any other class action.

The passengers then appealed that decision in the High Court.

What did the High Court decide?

Yesterday, the High Court unanimously ruled in favour of the passengers. In so doing, it put companies doing business in Australia on notice that Australia’s consumer protection laws apply both inside and outside the country’s borders.

It decided the class action waiver was unfair to the passengers. This was because Australian consumer law prohibits unfair consumer contracts and because the express terms of that law apply to companies doing business in Australia, regardless of whether they are headquartered in Australia or overseas.

As the High Court explained, a price of a company doing business in Australia is that it must adhere to Australia’s consumer protection laws.

As the High Court made clear, the consumer laws exist for the protection of people who enter into contracts with companies.

Parts of those contracts may be considered unfair where there are terms that are one-sidedly beneficial for the company, where that benefit is not necessary to protect a legitimate interest of the company, and where the consumer is harmed in some way by the existence of the benefit.

All these elements were present in the US terms as applied to Ho.

As the High Court found, the class action waiver was only beneficial to Princess. The only interest served was to reduce passengers’ ability to sue as a class (and therefore Princess’s need to defend itself against such a suit) and that Ho would be harmed by not being able to be a part of a legitimate Australian class action.

The High Court further found that since the class action waiver was unfair, there were good reasons not to enforce the additional term that all suits had to be brought in US courts in California.

This decision stands as a strong protection for consumers entering into agreements with companies doing business in Australia. It also makes class actions in Australian courts more available for consumers who might benefit from the protections the Australian consumer laws offer.

It is still a good idea to read your terms and conditions before agreeing to anything. But as the High Court has just ruled, you may not be completely out of luck if you don’t.

James D Metzger does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Nobody reads T&C’s – but the High Court’s Ruby Princess decision shows consumer law may protect us anyway – https://theconversation.com/nobody-reads-tandcs-but-the-high-courts-ruby-princess-decision-shows-consumer-law-may-protect-us-anyway-219229

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Pauline McGuirk, Senior Professor of Urban Geography, University of Wollongong

Heavyweight international players from the OECD to Bloomberg Philanthropies and the United Nations have in recent years prescribed “innovation” as a solution for the many challenges city governments face.

Innovation is a notoriously slippery term. For city government it generally involves deliberately questioning how things are done, leading to new and hopefully better ways of working. Innovation is meant to help resolve the world’s thorniest public policy challenges — from housing affordability to the climate crisis — but also to make cities more liveable through more effective, responsive and efficient city government.

But what do these innovations involve? Who do they involve? How do they work? Indeed, do they work? And what are the implications for city government?

Our research team has investigated these questions in conversation with practitioners from around the world. We present these conversations in a new podcast mini-series (transcripts are here).

Read more:
Australia, we need to talk about who governs our city-states

3 keys to successful innovation

Our research identified three dimensions as critical for city government innovation:

• new institutions that are “licensed to innovate”
• approaches based in design thinking
• nurturing more creative bureaucracies.

First, urban innovation units have become a poster child for innovative city government. Examples include the Boston Mayor’s Office of New Urban Mechanics (MONUM) and Bologna’s Office of Civic Imagination.

These units are usually modestly sized teams within city government. They are licensed to experiment with new processes, new services or new ways of developing urban policy.

These units generally aim to unsettle “business as usual” and work across habitual divisions of labour between departments and functions. They tend to draw in new partners, whether in the private, community or philanthropic sector. The emphasis is on collaborating to get things done, rather than following well-established rules and routines to deliver public services.

Such approaches challenge city government norms. They work with an explicit tolerance of failure and learning until a version of a policy, or a way of delivering a service, begins to work better. As one of our interviewees said:

Our return on investment here is [… ]so much greater if we fail and then change ‘fail’ to ‘learn’.

There’s an emphasis on building trust between the various partners, within and beyond government. As another interviewee said:

Trust and social networks turn out to be the greatest lubricant for innovation.

Creating a narrative about what innovative approaches can achieve is also important. “Showcasing the wins” demands new storytelling resources and skills for city staff.

There is no predictable template that transfers smoothly across all locations. These units need to navigate unique local circumstances, conflicting priorities and political sticking points that crop up in different ways in different places.

The bigger question, then, is how effectively can the wider “warts and all” lessons from these units be scaled up across the full scope of city government functions?

Read more:
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Design thinking that goes beyond ‘usual suspects’

While we may not traditionally associate city government with design, our participants often described their work in terms such as human-centred design, co-design, co-creation and prototyping.

Experimental and iterative practices underpinned their work: that is, testing a policy or service-design idea, seeing what works and what doesn’t, tweaking and testing again, and so on. Learning from the process is a priority.

And that learning was derived from input from more than “the usual suspects”. At its best, design thinking is unashamedly focused on people, whether they work in city departments or are citizens impacted by the problem in focus.

This type of thinking, one participant said, is

about new ways of including and engaging people in program design and policy design […] folks who I think traditionally are either not involved in the design process or haven’t been engaged in a way that feels really authentic.

Read more:
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Developing a creative bureaucracy

Our research revealed practitioners commonly understand innovation in city government as being about creative problem-solving. This is some way from the stereotype of the rule-bound city government bureaucrat.

In response to perceptions that city governments aren’t adaptable, effective or open enough, we see efforts to unleash the creativity of their workers to solve problems. Berlin even has an annual Creative Bureaucracy Festival.

We found evidence of a wider shift towards a creative problem-solving mindset. One interviewee described her job as:

always just solving problems and putting yourself in the shoes of whoever you are dealing with […] They have a problem and our obligation is to solve it, by whatever means necessary.

The desire for adaptive, responsive, open city government is changing recruitment priorities. Our interviewees told us about seeking staff with qualities like empathy, persuasion, charisma, agility and a history of enabling teams to create solutions. Recruiting for so-called soft skills, not the hard skills of domain-specific expertise, is part of an effort to change the culture and bureaucratic capacities of city government.

As the saying goes, personnel is policy. Who city government employs largely dictates what it can do.

Read more:
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Beware ‘innovation washing’

Much remains to be learned about the long-term implications of city governments working in “innovation mode”. Clear-eyed evaluation is needed to avoid “innovation washing”: the notion that innovation is always a good thing and always delivers improvement.

Our research has found city government innovation most often concerns changes to the everyday business of running the city. This includes more efficient processes, new ways to gather ideas from the community, new collaborations that allow resource sharing.

These innovations may not be a silver bullet for intractable urban problems or save the planet, but they matter for everyday life in the city.

Pauline McGuirk receives funding from the Australian Research Council, DP200100176 Innovating Urban Governance: Practices for Enhanced Urban Futures, the study on which this article is based.

Laura Goh receives funding from the Australian Research Council, DP200100176.

Robyn Dowling receives funding from the Australian Research Council, DP200100176.

Sophia Maalsen receives funding from the Australian Research Council, DP200100176.

Tom Baker receives funding from the Australian Research Council, DP200100176.

– ref. Creative bureacracy is possible. Here are 3 things cities do to foster innovative local government – https://theconversation.com/creative-bureacracy-is-possible-here-are-3-things-cities-do-to-foster-innovative-local-government-218997

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Karleen Gribble, Adjunct Associate Professor, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Western Sydney University

Extreme heat events are becoming more frequent and intense in Australia. This can cause illness or worsen existing conditions. During hot weather, hospital admissions and deaths increase.

Babies are among those particularly vulnerable.

Looking after a baby during extreme heat takes a little planning and a lot of patience. Here are five practical tips.

Read more:
Extreme weather is landing more Australians in hospital – and heat is the biggest culprit

Why are babies particularly at risk?

Babies are more vulnerable to extreme heat for several reasons.

They have a higher metabolic rate than older children and adults, so their body generates more internal heat.

They also have a larger surface area compared with the volume of their body. So they adsorb heat more easily from the environment.

Their sweat glands are not fully developed. So they cannot lose heat by sweating as easily as older children and adults.

Babies also have to rely on adults to keep them safe when the weather is hot. They cannot move to a cooler place or drink more fluids without help from their parents or caregivers.

1. Plan ahead

Knowing if hot weather is coming allows you to prepare and avoid, or reduce, your baby’s exposure to heat.

So keep an eye on forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology (including its heatwave warning service). Your local ABC radio station broadcasts emergency information, and you can search for emergency conditions on the ABC website.

Read more:
Worried about heat and fire this summer? Here’s how to prepare

2. Keep your home cool

On hot days, close windows, blinds and curtains early in the day and keep outside doors shut. If you live in a multi-storey building, stay downstairs where the air will be cooler.

Air conditioning will keep you cool if you have it. Staying in one part of the house and closing doors to the rest, can make air conditioning more effective and reduce your energy use. Take care to ensure rooms do not become too cold and ensure air flow from air conditioners or fans is not directed at your baby. That’s because babies also have difficulty regulating their temperature in the cold and their temperature can quickly drop.

Power blackouts are common during extreme heat events. So, think about what you’ll do if you can’t use air conditioning because of a blackout.

If you cannot keep cool at home, try to find somewhere you can go that is air conditioned. This could be a public building, such as a library or shopping centre, or the home of a friend or relative.

Some communities have “heat havens” or “heat shelters” where vulnerable people, including pregnant women and families with babies, can go during extreme heat.

Read more:
Evacuating with a baby? Here’s what to put in your emergency kit

3. Take care if you need to go out

If you do have to go out, ensure your baby is sheltered from the sun and heat as much as possible.

Use a sunshade on car windows to protect you baby from direct sunlight. Never leave a baby or young child in a parked car.

You can help keep your baby cool in their pram by covering it with a light, damp cloth and spraying it with water every 15-20 minutes. Don’t let the cloth dry out completely because this can increase the temperature in the pram.

Once the day starts to cool down, playing with water in a shady spot outside is a great way to cool down. Always supervise babies in or near water.

4. Offer babies extra fluids

Babies need extra fluids during hot weather, but their pattern of feeding can change when it’s hot.

For breastfed babies this often means they start fussing or crying at the breast after just a few minutes, then want to breastfeed again as soon as 30-40 minutes later.

Mothers may worry their breasts have run out of milk, but they haven’t. These short feeds provide milk that is higher in water than a longer breastfeed.

Just like adults, babies don’t want to eat a full meal when they’re hot. Once the day starts to cool down, most babies will have several longer, more satisfying feeds.

Similarly, formula-fed babies will often take less milk at a feed during the heat of the day but look for another feed sooner than usual.

Instead of trying to make a baby finish a whole bottle, try splitting their usual feed into two. If the baby finishes the first bottle, you can top it up from the second bottle or keep it in the fridge and warm it up again when they start looking hungry again. Just like breastfed babies, they will usually be looking for slightly bigger feeds as the day starts to cool.

Do NOT give babies under six months old water as this can make them very ill. Their kidneys are not mature and cannot handle the extra water.

You can tell your baby is getting enough fluids if they have five heavy, wet disposable nappies in 24 hours, their urine is pale yellow and doesn’t have a strong smell.

If this isn’t happening, your baby needs more fluids and you need to offer more frequent feeds.

From six months, babies can be given small amounts of cooled boiled water in addition to breastmilk or formula. You can also offer foods containing lots of water, such as watermelon or strawberries, or iceblocks made with breastmilk, formula or diluted fruit juice. Chewing on a cold, wet face washer is another way older babies can get extra fluids.

Remember to look after yourself when the weather gets hot. Have a glass of water at least every time your baby feeds. If you are breastfeeding and the heat makes skin contact uncomfortable for you and your baby, you can put a light cloth or damp hand-towel between you, or you can lie down to feed so your baby is next to your body instead of on it.

Read more:
Health Check: how do I tell if I’m dehydrated?

5. Prepare for sleep

Everyone struggles to sleep in hot weather. A lukewarm bath may help your baby cool off enough to fall asleep. However, avoid cold baths as your baby’s temperature may drop too much.

Nobody sleeps well on hot nights and we all need to catch up on sleep when the weather cools.

In extreme heat, if your baby won’t feed well, is limp or floppy, has dull sunken eyes and a sunken soft spot in the skull (fontanelle), seek medical treatment straight away. In an emergency, call 000.

Karleen Gribble is project lead on the Australian Breastfeeding Association’s Community Protection for Infants and Young Children in Bushfire Emergencies Project and is an Australian Breastfeeding Association Educator and Counsellor. Karleen is also on the steering committee of the international interagency collaboration the Infant and Young Child Feeding in Emergencies Core Group and has been involved in the development of international guidance and training on infant and young child feeding in emergencies for over a decade.

Michelle Hamrosi is the community engagement officer on the Australian Breastfeeding Association’s Community Protection for Infants and Young Children in Bushfire Emergencies Project. Michelle is also a general practitioner and an international board certified lactation consultant. Michelle volunteers as a breastfeeding counsellor and group leader for the Australian Breastfeeding Association Eurobodalla group. She is also a member of Doctors for the Environment, Climate and Health Alliance and Australian Parents for Climate Action.

Nina Chad is an infant and young child feeding consultant for the World Health Organization. She is a member of the Public Health Association of Australia, the World Public Health Nutrition Association, and the Australian Breastfeeding Association.

– ref. 5 expert tips on how to look after your baby in a heatwave – https://theconversation.com/5-expert-tips-on-how-to-look-after-your-baby-in-a-heatwave-216906

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cameron Shackell, Sessional Academic and Visitor, School of Information Systems, Queensland University of Technology

Noam Chomsky, the revered and reviled genius once famously described as “the most important intellectual alive”, turns 95 today. He is a monumental figure in modern linguistics, and only a slightly lesser deity in psychology, philosophy and political activism.

His work establishing cognitive science as a discipline is so fundamental to the rise of AI that it’s rarely acknowledged anymore.

Amid the ongoing alarm that language-simulating machines could become a net negative for humanity, have we wandered too far from Chomsky’s vision of a science of the human mind?

The root of Chomsky’s fame

Chomsky burst onto the academic scene in 1957 with Syntactic Structures, a highly technical linguistics monograph that revolutionised the study of language.

His real stardom, however, came in 1959 with his legendary review of B. F. Skinner’s Verbal Behaviour. Skinner, a psychologist and behaviourist, was enjoying the limelight in psychology circles with his theory of “operant conditioning”.

It explains how reinforcement and punishment can be used to create associations in people’s minds, which then encourage certain behaviours. For instance, a gold star awarded by a teacher for good behaviour will encourage more of it from students.

In Verbal Behaviour, Skinner tried to expand this idea into linguistics by breaking language down into components that are supposedly acquired via operant conditioning.

Chomsky completely disagreed. He tore Skinner’s theories apart, showing language couldn’t possibly be understood in this way.

For one thing, he pointed out, children don’t get enough exposure to language to learn every possible sentence. For another, language is creative: we frequently utter sentences that have never been heard before, meaning they can’t have been acquired through a simple process of reward and punishment.

Read more:
Will AI kill our creativity? It could – if we don’t start to value and protect the traits that make us human

The cognitive revolution and AI

Chomsky’s scathing review did more than shut behaviourism out of linguistics.

He showed how useful it could be to examine the mind instead of just behaviour in language-related areas like anthropology, psychology and neuroscience. This helped set the cognitive revolution in motion, eventually giving rise to the field of cognitive science.

A core idea Chomsky pioneered, together with other cognitive scientists, is that human cognition (thinking, memory, learning, language, perception and decision-making) can be understood in terms of computational processes. While there were already various theories to explain different aspects of cognition, none offered the seductive framework of the computer metaphor: our brains are the hardware, cognition is the software, and our thoughts and feelings are the outputs.

Chomsky’s approach is a thread that has connected generations of AI researchers, arguably beginning with his MIT colleague and AI pioneer Marvin Minsky – one of the organisers of the 1956 Dartmouth research workshop that kicked off AI research.

In those early days of AI, Chomsky’s theories about language paved the way to expand Alan Turing’s ideas about machine intelligence into language processing.

Generative and deep

Specifically, two key concepts popularised by Chomsky are still embedded in AI today.

The first is “generative grammar”. This is the idea that there is a specific set of rules that determines what makes a sentence grammatically correct (or incorrect) in any given language.

The second idea is that of “deep structure”. Chomsky said linguists were paying too much attention to the traditional grammar, or “surface structure”, of particular languages. This refers to the various components (such as words, syllables and phrases) that comprise a spoken sentence.

Instead, Chomsky wanted to work out the “deep structure” of all language, of which we are largely unconscious. This deep structure is what determines the semantic component of a sentence – that is, its underlying meaning.

It’s not hard to see how Chomsky’s ideas of generative grammar and deep structure jibe with today’s generative AI and deep learning.

Chomsky set the basic challenge for this entire effort: work out the deep rules that generate language. Without this, experts couldn’t have delved so deeply into neural networks. They wouldn’t have understood language well enough to even begin.

Chomsky’s thoughts on AI

Sixty years later, models such as ChatGPT have caught up with Chomsky.

While some linguists believe the success of large language models (LLMs) invalidates Chomsky’s approach to language, he argues the models simply imitate rather than truly “learn”. According to Chomsky, the knowledge of the deep rules of language they contain is a statistical mess, not a meaningful analysis.

In a New York Times guest essay with Ian Roberts and Jeffrey Watumull titled The False Promise of ChatGPT, Chomsky says it is “comic and tragic” that “so much money and attention should be concentrated on so little a thing”.

His main complaint is that such systems are a dead end in the search for true artificial general intelligence (AGI). Rather, he views them as a souped-up autocomplete – useful for creating computer code or cheating on essays, but not much else.

He worries their popularity will delay the exploration of other AI architectures that don’t rely on the brute-force statistical crunching of data. Above all, he doesn’t believe neural networks (the basis of much of today’s AI) are the correct architecture for replicating human intelligence.

Despite being unimpressed by ChatGPT, Chomsky does see potential for AI to play the monster in a grim future. In the essay, he wrote ChatGPT’s responses can exude “the banality of evil: plagiarism and apathy and obviation”.

Still, he seems to regard AI as a secondary worry compared with climate change.

Read more:
Is it time to reconsider the idea of ‘the banality of evil’?

Commercial AI: the revenge of behaviourists?

There’s an important difference between Chomsky’s ethical and optimistic work in cognitive science and what’s currently going on in the AI industry.

Advances in modelling cognition are no longer happening mainly at universities. Instead, huge firms such as Google, Microsoft and OpenAI are hoarding resources.

Some researchers are now turning to AI models for clues about human thinking. If you agree with Chomsky and others this is unlikely to yield much insight. But that’s not the point of these models, is it?

Their purpose is to make money. Users prompt them with a stimulus and get a response. If it’s useful, they’ll prompt again. Over time, the model will learn which stimulus and response patterns work, and will use this knowledge to become more addictive and influential – reinforcing our use of them and potentially even changing our behaviours.

Stimulus, response, reinforcement and behaviour. Sound familiar?

Chomsky fought hard to keep behaviourism out of linguistics and contributed greatly to our understanding of how language may be linked with processes in the mind. Ironically, it seems these contributions have driven us into the perfect arena for behaviourist experimentation facilitated by AI.

Cameron Shackell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Noam Chomsky turns 95: the social justice advocate paved the way for AI. Does it keep him up at night? – https://theconversation.com/noam-chomsky-turns-95-the-social-justice-advocate-paved-the-way-for-ai-does-it-keep-him-up-at-night-218034

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicole Lee, Professor at the National Drug Research Institute (Melbourne), Curtin University

Last week two young Australian women spoke candidly to the ABC about being sexually assaulted while on holidays. The alleged incidents occurred in Greece in 2022 and in Hawaii in 2019.

Both women described common symptoms of being drugged, including being unable to move or speak, blurred vision, lack of coordination and memory loss.

Both found a needle mark after they woke up and believe they were “needle spiked”.

Read more:
What is drink spiking? How can you know if it’s happened to you, and how can it be prevented?

What is needle spiking?

Needle spiking is when a person is injected with a drug without their consent. Reports of needle spiking started to emerge in the UK in 2021 but it’s now been reported around the world, including in Australia.

Needle spiking is usually reported by people who have been at a crowded bar or party. It’s generally reported by women but some men have also reported being needle spiked.

We don’t have data on how often needle spiking happens, but we think it’s very rare. There have been only a few reports of needle spiking in Australia but none of them have been able to be confirmed.

Often these types of incidents are not reported at all because often victims don’t remember what happened or there’s no way to identify the perpetrator.

We don’t know exactly what drugs might be used in needle spiking incidents, but they would likely be similar to drugs commonly used for drink spiking. These include colourless, odourless sedatives like Rohypnol, GHB and ketamine.

People who suspect they were needle spiked may have blood or urine testing afterwards. But there’s no real way to be sure any drugs detected in someone’s system were from a needle incident. And often no sedatives are detected by the time testing happens.

How does it happen?

It’s very difficult to inject someone without them noticing, especially in a crowded venue where people are moving a lot. Needles need to be injected fairly carefully and it would take several seconds to get enough of a drug into the system to have an effect. It would also be almost impossible to inject enough of a drug to incapacitate someone through clothing.

So generally, a person would probably feel the prick of the needle and notice the drug going in.

It is theoretically possible to inject someone without them knowing, using a very thin needle. They may be less likely to notice if they’ve had a couple of drinks. But also it’s less likely you would find a needle mark with a very thin needle.

If needle spiking occurs, a more likely scenario may be that someone has their drink spiked, and the injection happens after they’re incapacitated from the drink spiking. This might be done to ensure someone stays sedated, but we don’t know the reasons for sure.

Read more:
Weekly Dose: GHB, a party drug that’s easy to overdose on but was once used in childbirth

Drink spiking is much easier and is probably much more common than needle spiking, although we don’t have good data on the prevalence of drink spiking either.

By far the most commonly used drug in drink spiking is alcohol. Extra or stronger alcohol might be added to an alcoholic or non-alcoholic drink.

More rarely other drugs are used such as benzodiazepines (like Rohypnol), GHB or ketamine. These drugs have sedative effects that can result in loss of consciousness, memory loss and sometimes hallucinations or feeling like you are outside your body.

There is minimal data about sexual assault after drink spiking as most incidents are not reported, but some data suggests around one-third of drink spiking incidents end in sexual assault.

What to do if think you’ve been spiked

If you were injected with any of the substances mentioned above you would feel the effects nearly immediately. If your drink has been spiked, it takes longer for the substances to enter your system, so you might feel the effects with enough time to get help.

Some of the warning signs you may have been spiked include:

• feeling lightheaded
• feeling sick or unusually tired
• feeling drunk despite only having a very small amount of alcohol
• feeling like you might faint or pass out, or you actually pass out
• feeling confused when you wake up
• being unable to remember what happened the previous night.

If you think you’ve been drink or needle spiked, you should ask someone you trust to help get you to a safe place, or talk to venue staff or security if you’re at a licensed venue.

If you feel very unwell you should seek medical help, such as at an emergency department.

How can you protect yourself?

Stick to venues you know and that have a good reputation for safety. If you’re at a venue where you don’t feel comfortable, don’t stay.

Keep your drink close to you and don’t leave it unattended. Don’t share drinks with other people, especially if you don’t know them well, and buy your drinks yourself. If you’re offered a drink by someone you don’t know well, go to the bar with them and watch the bartender pour your drink.

If you think your drink tastes weird, or you start to feel strange or unwell, tell someone you trust straight away. Keep an eye on your friends and their drinks too.

If you’ve been a victim of drink or needle spiking and want to talk to someone confidentially, you can call the National Alcohol and other Drug Hotline on 1800 250 015.

For information about sexual assault, or for counselling or referral, you can call The National Sexual Assault, Family and Domestic Violence Counselling Line – 1800 RESPECT (1800 737 732).

Nicole Lee is CEO at Hello Sunday Morning and also works as a consultant in the alcohol and other drug sector and a psychologist in private practice. She has previously been awarded funding by Australian and state governments, NHMRC and other bodies for evaluation and research into alcohol and other drug prevention and treatment.

– ref. What is needle spiking, and how can I protect myself? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-needle-spiking-and-how-can-i-protect-myself-219003

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nigel Andrew, Professor of Entomology, Southern Cross University

Cabbage white butterflies – Pieris rapae – are one of the most common garden visitors across southern and eastern Australia. The butterfly looks elegant in white with black dots on its wings: females have a pair of black spots and males a single spot on each forewing. But their velvety green caterpillars are ravenous beasts on brassicas – the plant family that includes common vegetable crops such as cabbages, cauliflowers, broccoli, kale and bok choy.

The species was accidentally introduced into Melbourne in 1929 from Europe. Since then, cabbage whites have spread all over Australia, finally reaching Perth in 1943.

Because of their caterpillars’ addiction to eating brassicas, it is one of the most pervasive pests of any crop worldwide. Recent conditions have been favourable, resulting in large numbers of cabbage whites.

One female can lay up to 800 eggs. When they hatch, the caterpillars prefer densely planted hosts in moist, warm habitats. The caterpillars’ biomass can double each day, making them one of the fastest-growing cabbage-feeding caterpillars.

Read more:
Why red fire ants and yellow crazy ants have given themselves a green light to invade Australia

Why are there so many this season?

Cabbage whites’ ability to exploit the moist and warm conditions over the past winter are one reason they are so pervasive at the moment.

They can also cope with cold. The pupae – the stage in which a caterpillar metamorphoses inside a cocoon into an adult butterfly – can survive temperatures as low as -20°C. Their cells can produce antifreeze proteins, which lower their freezing point if it does get cold.

Milder winters mean the overwintering pupae emerged and mated early. The female adults soon started to lay their eggs on planted brassicas.

The next generation of caterpillars can then start feeding without being predated on as their natural enemies take longer to emerge after milder weather. Cabbage white numbers then build up extraordinarily quickly.

What’s the appeal of brassicas?

The caterpillars are attracted and addicted to chemicals found in brassica leaves. These are the mustard oil glucosides (glucosinolates) – particularly sinigrin, which initiates caterpillar feeding.

Adult females are attracted to brassicas by another glucosinolate – glucobrassin – which prompts them to lay their eggs on the leaves. Females can “taste” these chemicals with hairs on their front legs.

The females also prefer greener plants – which they’ll find in well-watered and fertilised vegetable gardens – to lay their eggs.

How to live with them

A key way to control the caterpillars is to deny them access to your crops in the first place. Once the leaves start developing, cover the crop with insect-proof mesh. You can use garden hoops or bamboo as a supporting frame for the mesh.

When you remove the mesh to water or weed, do it in the early morning or late afternoon when the adults are not flying.

White butterfly decoys suspended on sticks generally don’t work to stop females laying their eggs. There is no evidence cabbage white females are territorial.

It can be useful to provide a “sacrificial” plant. Leave these out in the open to attract the adult female to lay her eggs.

As caterpillars increase in numbers, they will start to attract beneficial predators and insect parasitoids that lay their eggs on the caterpillars. Parasitoids are primarily wasps and can be very effective biocontrol agents. Their larvae feed on the bodily fluids or the internal organs of the host caterpillar, eventually killing it.

These beneficial insects need a nectar source to stay active. They will be attracted to gardens that are a bit “messy” with different habitats and flowers.

Remember, some green caterpillar-like animals are good guys. So, if you are fond of squishing the caterpillars, make sure they are the ones eating the foliage; not the voracious predators, especially aphids, eating the herbivores.

Read more:
The secret agents protecting our crops and gardens

Just to make things more interesting, caterpillars, in general, that are feeding are about 100 times more likely to fall prey to predators and parasites than caterpillars that are hiding. Longer caterpillar feeding bouts usually happen on plants with lower nitrogen levels – so if you have a sacrificial plant, don’t fertilise it.

It can also help not to plant all your brassicas together. Mix up your vegetables and herbs. This provides your prized kale with companion plants and makes it harder for caterpillars to move from one plant to another.

Companion planting allows beneficial insects to find hiding places closer to the caterpillars, and also makes it harder for the female butterflies find your brassicas.

Read more:
These 3 tips will help you create a thriving pollinator-friendly garden this winter

Avoid pesticides as much as possible

Don’t spray your garden plants with pesticides unless you desperately need to feed lots of family or are a serial entrant in the fruit and vegetable exhibition at your local show. The cost is huge relative to the benefit the chemicals bring you. In most cases you will be killing off many beneficial creatures in your garden.

Read more:
The battle against bugs: it’s time to end chemical warfare

If you must, the least harmful spray for humans and other natural enemies of the cabbage white is Dipel. This is an insecticidal product containing toxins derived from a bacterium, Bacillus thuringiensis kurstaki (Btk), which occurs naturally in soil and on plants. But it may be toxic to other butterflies and moths that pollinate your veggies, so be very careful where and when you spray.

Protecting your patch with mesh, rather than spraying, and providing space and food for natural enemies are great ways to keep the diversity up in your garden. Allowing a little bit of damage to your prized backyard crops enables some interesting biological interactions to occur in areas where it may have been missing for decades.

Nigel Andrew has received funding from the Australian Research Council, Grains Research Development Council, Meat and Livestock Australia, NSW Environmental Trust, and NSW Local Land Services. He is a Board member of the Ecological Society of Australia, the Australian Fulbright Alumni Association, and the NSW Entomological Society..

– ref. A great year to be a cabbage white butterfly: why are there so many and how can you protect your crops? – https://theconversation.com/a-great-year-to-be-a-cabbage-white-butterfly-why-are-there-so-many-and-how-can-you-protect-your-crops-217794

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tets Kimura, Adjunct Lecturer, Creative Arts, Flinders University

Much about Hayao Miyazaki’s latest film, The Boy and the Heron, remained a mystery until its premiere in Japanese theatres on July 14.

The title Kimi tachi wa do ikiruka, or How do you live?, was revealed in 2017. (The Boy and the Heron is the English title.) No trailer was produced for a Japanese audience and there were no announcements regarding the film’s plot, voice actors or production team. The involvement of Joe Hisaishi, who has been composing music for Miyazaki’s films since Nausicaä of the Valley of the Wind (1984), was confirmed on July 4, a mere 10 days prior to the film release.

Mystery served as a strategic promotional tool for the film. After the release on July 14, Studio Ghibli discouraged the public from making any comments about the film’s contents on social media. No pamphlet – a popular publication typically available at Japanese movie theatres – was produced for this film. An official guidebook was only made available for sale at the start of November.

Miyazaki wanted the audience to see his film with no preconceived expectations.

A coming-of-age story

Genzaburo Yoshino’s novel How do you live? was published in 1937, four years before Japan joined the second world war. The book follows a teenage boy as he navigates the big questions about how to live your life through interactions with his friends, housekeepers and family, particularly an uncle who acts as a guide. It was originally intended to be an ethics book for young adults, rather than a work of literature, and Miyazaki held a deep fondness for the book during his childhood.

While the film is an original story and not a remake of the novel, it shares numerous similarities. Both narratives feature a teenage boy on a coming-of-age journey, seeking the meaning of life, and are set in a similar historical era.

The novel unfolds in the 1930s, a period when Japan was increasingly embracing militarism. The animation film is set during the second world war, likely in 1944 or 1945, following the Fall of Saipan when American military aircraft began civilian-targeted firebombing. The film’s main character, Mahito, experiences the tragic loss of his mother in a fire, presumably caused by firebombing, early in the story.

Read more:
Suzume builds on a long line of Japanese art exploring the impacts of trauma on the individual and the collective

While the historical background of the film is obvious to a domestic audience in Japan, it may not be immediately apparent to many foreign viewers. There is no guiding narrative to explain the historical background in the film. Miyazaki’s use of the title from the novel reflects on Yoshino’s anti-war stance, but this connection is not clear in the English title.

The new title, The Boy and the Heron, is unrelated to the Japanese original. It was possibly crafted to appeal to an international audience unfamiliar with the novel. Here, the boy symbolises Miyazaki himself, a child who, having lost his mother and been compelled to leave Tokyo during wartime evacuations, continues to yearn for motherly comfort.

The boy embarks on a journey into an alternate world. A talking heron disrupts his journey, yet is crucial for the journey to reach completion. The encounter with the heron poignantly depicts how we can simultaneously embody friendship and opposition, mirroring the complexities of the real world.

The story serves as both a life lesson and an autobiographical reflection constructed by Miyazaki in the twilight of his life. It is a journey through time, an endeavour where he traverses decades to delve into his memories. For fervent Miyazaki enthusiasts, it offers a treasure trove that unveils the roots of his upbringing.

But the raw portrayal of Miyazaki’s past emotions might evoke discomfort. Some may feel reluctant to witness Miyazaki in such a vulnerable state, exposing aspects of himself they may not have anticipated encountering.

Born in 1941, the year when Japan entered the second world war, Miyazaki might have felt compelled to document his memories. Only a small fraction of today’s generations lived through the war; even fewer retain personal memories of that time. The opportunity to learn firsthand from direct experiences and oral histories is rapidly dwindling.

Awaiting another film

After 2013’s The Wind Rises, Miyazaki spent ten years creating The Boy and the Heron. During this time, speculations this might be his final film circulated in Japanese media.

Now 82 years old, Miyazaki has surprised many by already confirming his motivation to embark on his next cinematic endeavour. Despite his age, he has made clear his intent to create another film.

But The Boy and the Heron feels like the concluding work of his long journey, packed with messages to younger generations. His unusual request to not share any details of the film on social media suggests he wants his audience to individually consider the important issue of how to live your own life. While it is nice to feel connected, there should also be time to be on your own, and think.

Read more:
How Studio Ghibli films can help us rediscover the childlike wonder of our connection with nature

Tets Kimura does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The Boy and the Heron is an autobiographical reflection by Hayao Miyazaki in the twilight of his life – https://theconversation.com/the-boy-and-the-heron-is-an-autobiographical-reflection-by-hayao-miyazaki-in-the-twilight-of-his-life-219117

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Peterie, Research Fellow, University of Sydney

After a week of non-stop headlines, the government’s preventative detention legislation is being debated in the lower house, just in time for the end of the sitting year. It’s likely to pass on Thursday.

The new laws will allow former immigration detainees to be re-detained if they are judged to pose a high risk of committing serious violent or sexual crime.

The legislation comes after a 20-year legal precedent was overturned in November, when the High Court found the government could not detain people indefinitely – regardless of whether they had a criminal history.

The High Court’s decision was celebrated by human rights organisations and some legal scholars. It was seen as a rare opportunity to reshape Australia’s immigration detention policies in line with international law, the constitutional separation of powers, and principles of procedural justice and proportionality.

Yet the opportunity for much-needed reform has been frustrated by political point-scoring. The opposition and tabloid media have stirred up moral panic about the release of “hardened criminals”. Anxious to avoid accusations of being “soft”, the government has adopted the same discourse.

Both the government and opposition agree it is necessary to put “dangerous” people back behind bars to protect the community. In a clear break from parliamentary process, the vote on the legislation was scheduled for a non-sitting day, giving parliamentarians little opportunity to scrutinise or debate the legislation.

So what do these laws actually do, what do they mean for those most affected by them, and what is being lost in the current debate?

Read more:
View from The Hill: government’s announcement tsunami overshadowed by crisis over ex-detainees

What are preventative detention laws?

The new laws will allow the immigration minister (currently Andrew Giles) to apply to a court to re-detain people who have been released from immigration detention.

For an application to be successful, two conditions must be met.

First, the person must have been convicted of a crime (either in Australia or overseas) that carries a sentence of at least seven years’ imprisonment.

Second, the court must agree the individual poses “an unacceptable risk of committing a serious violent or sexual offence”, and that there is “no less restrictive measure available” to keep the community safe.

The involvement of the courts in making these decisions is a welcome safeguard in the context of a detention system in which people are routinely incarcerated for years or even decades without court oversight. The minister’s previous “god-like powers” in this area have been widely criticised.

Yet the human rights implications of detaining people who have already served their time are significant. Re-detention is likely to be experienced as a secondary punishment, which is contrary to principles of proportionality and procedural fairness.

It is also notable that these laws only apply to people who are not Australian citizens.

Australians with the same criminal histories and risk profiles will not be subject to preventative detention under this legislation. This raises concerns about the laws’ validity, with some suggesting the targeted nature of the legislation may leave it vulnerable to a High Court challenge.

Read more:
High Court reasons on immigration ruling pave way for further legislation

Why were these laws brought in?

On November 8, the High Court of Australia ruled unanimously that if there is no real prospect of a person being deported in the forseeable future, it is unlawful for the government to detain them indefinitely.

The case was brought by a Rohingya man, known as NZYQ, who was no longer eligible for an Australian visa after being convicted of a sexual crime. As he’s a member of a persecuted minority, he could not be deported back to Myanmar.

With no visa and no country willing to accept him, he had been moved into indefinite immigration detention after completing his prison sentence in 2018.

The court’s decision triggered the release of more than 140 people, four of whom have since been arrested for various alleged crimes.

People with no criminal history – including a man who had spent more than a decade in detention after coming to Australia in search of asylum – were also among those released.

The government has already imposed strict conditions on the freed individuals, including ankle bracelets and curfews.

Read more:
The High Court has decided indefinite detention is unlawful. What happens now?

What is being missed in the current debate?

Prior to the High Court’s decision, refugees, people seeking asylum, stateless people and other non-citizens without a valid visa were regularly subject to indefinite mandatory detention. As of August 2023, Australia held 1,056 people in immigration detention; the average duration of detention was 708 days.

Unlike prisons, immigration detention centres are officially administrative and not for punishment. That is, people are not held in these facilities as part of a criminal sentence, but to facilitate health, security and identity checks, and to enable visa processing or removal from the country.

In the almost 30 years since Australia introduced indefinite mandatory detention, tens of thousands of people have been subject to this policy. Among those detained have been thousands of children, whose detention continues to be permitted under Australian law.

Conditions in detention are often punitive, and have been subject to regular international criticism.

Read more:
‘Futile and cruel’: plan to charge fees for immigration detention has no redeeming features

The current debate about immigration detention glosses over these realities. It obscures the profound humanitarian implications of the High Court’s ruling.

It also ignores the urgent need for further reform to ensure innocent people (including children) are not unduly punished. And it rationalises ongoing incarceration – beyond the terms of a criminal sentence – as a valid response to non-citizens who have already served their time.

Michelle Peterie receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She also undertakes research in partnership with the Australian Human Rights Commission.

Amy Nethery does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What is the government’s preventative detention bill? Here’s how the laws will work and what they mean for Australia’s detention system – https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-governments-preventative-detention-bill-heres-how-the-laws-will-work-and-what-they-mean-for-australias-detention-system-219226

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The Albanese government has promised extra funding for health and to extend its top-up of the GST, in exchange for the states undertaking more of the heavy lifting on disability to help curb the National Disability Insurance Scheme’s cost blowout.

Ahead of Thursday’s release of the review into NDIS, the states have agreed to provide more and expanded services for people with disability, both those on the NDIS and those not eligible for it.

These would include, for example, services for children with mild developmental issues, the number of whom on the NDIS has ballooned, contributing to its unsustainable cost escalation.

These services would be delivered through, among other avenues, child care and schools. The changes would be phased in.

Additional costs are to be split on a 50-50 basis between the federal and the state and territory governments.

The Commonwealth has agreed to cap extra spending for states and territories on the new and expanded disability services to ensure the combined package of health and disability reforms would see all states and territories better off.

The federal government aims to limit the rate of growth of the NDIS to 8% a year by 2026. The scheme is expected to cost about $42 billion in 2023–24. Its cost is growing more than 14% annually.

Under the trade off struck at Wednesday’s national cabinet, the Commonwealth will provide $1.2 billion to strengthen Medicare to take some pressure off hospitals.

This will include extra funds for Medicare Urgent Care Clinics, which Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said would increase the number of clinics beyond the 58 due to be delivered by the end of the year. The money will also go to reforms in regulatory settings and professional development in the health sector and to support elderly people to avoid unnecessary hospital admissions and to be discharged sooner when they are hospitalised.

In a major health move, the Commonwealth contributions under the National Health Reform Agreement will be boosted to 45% over a maximum of 10 year “glide path” from July 1 2025, with 42.5% achieved before 2030. The present contribution is under 40%.

The current 6.5% funding cap will be replaced by a more generous cap. This will be a cumulative cap over 2025-30, which will include a first year “catch up” growth premium.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the extra cost of the new hospitals agreement, which begins in 2025, would be about $13.2 billion from then until the end of the decade.

Stephen Duckett, from the University of Melbourne, welcomed the initiatives, especially the reversal of the downward trend in federal hospital funding. “This means states can expand hospital services to meet the demand,” he said.

The federal government has undertaken to extend the top-up of the GST in its present form for three years from 2027-28. This will cost an extra about $3.5 billion a year.

Chalmers said other aspects of the GST deal legislated in 2018 would remain in place, including reforms that provide Western Australia “with a fair share of GST revenues”.

There have been repeated calls from other states for WA to receive less generous treatment. But with Labor trying to hold on to the extra WA seats it won in 2022, it has every reason to keep the present allocation.

Appearing at a news conference with state and territory leaders, Albanese said: “We end 2023 showing that federal-state relations can truly be harmonised and harnessed in a way that benefits our entire constituency, no matter which state or territory you live in”.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. States agree to do more heavy lifting on disability, in exchange for extra health and GST funding – https://theconversation.com/states-agree-to-do-more-heavy-lifting-on-disability-in-exchange-for-extra-health-and-gst-funding-219321

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Leena Adel, PhD Candidate, Political Science and International Relations, Curtin University

In recent days, three Israeli-linked commercial vessels were targeted by ballistic missiles and drones launched by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, marking a clear escalation in maritime attacks in the critical Bab el Mandab strait between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

The Houthis have claimed responsibility for two of the attacks, as well as an earlier hijacking of a Japanese-operated cargo ship by helicopter last month.

On Sunday, Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree reemphasised that all Israeli-affiliated vessels travelling along the Yemeni coast would be fair game if Israel does not cease its attacks on Gaza, which have claimed the lives of at least 15,500 Palestinians since October 7.

Read more:
Who are Yemen’s Houthis?

Who are the Houthis?

The Iranian-backed Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah, are insurgents that control most of Yemen’s north, including the nation’s capital, Sana’a.

The group emerged in the 1980s as a political-religious revivalist movement out of the Zaydi sect from Yemen’s northern highlands, namely the ancient city of Saada. The movement’s broad motivations emerged from longstanding grievances that left many Zaydis feeling like second-class citizens within the wider Yemeni social and political order.

Many in the Houthi leadership received religious education in Iran before returning to Yemen in the early 2000s and becoming more politically active. The Houthis are not mere Iranian “proxies”, however. Attempts to portray them as such tend to overemphasise this connection and ignore the indigenous nature and causes of the movement and its ideology.

The group engaged in ongoing struggles against the Ali Abdullah Saleh-led Yemeni government throughout the 2000s, ultimately contributing to its collapse following the 2011 Arab revolts.

Read more:
Peace may finally be returning to Yemen, but can a fractured nation be put back together?

Following the Arab Spring and increasing chaos in Yemen, the Houthis gained significant momentum. In 2014, they were able to oust the Saudi-backed transitional government and seize power over much of Yemen, rapidly blitzing into the country’s south – a move that shocked international onlookers in its brazenness and efficacy.

In response, a Saudi- and Emirati-led coalition launched a military intervention, which they believed would rapidly overwhelm the insurgents with their technological superiority.

The operation went awry, however. Thanks to their own tenacity, along with increasing support from Iran, the Houthis were able to bog down the coalition forces into a bloody stalemate. This brought untold misery to the wider Yemeni population, but allowed the Houthis to hold onto power over much of the country’s north. A series of backchannel negotiations led to a halt in the fighting in 2022.

Although peace talks officially commenced in April, Yemen remains in a state of precarious peace. Because this is such a critical time for the Houthis, it begs the question: why are they risking their hard-won gains over a conflict thousands of kilometres away that doesn’t directly involve them?

Why Israel?

The Houthis are part of the so-called “axis of resistance”, an alliance of proxy militant and insurgent groups that Iran has built throughout the region, including in Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq and Syria.

Within this wider context, Israel has attempted to implicate Iran in Red Sea attacks, but Tehran denies it.

To interpret the Houthi attacks on Israel as solely an extension of Iran’s wider geopolitical manoeuvring would be overlooking a crucial Houthi political strategy. The group’s support of the Palestinians is also a way of garnering domestic and regional support for its own position in Yemen.

While many countries in the region have sought a detente with Israel in recent years, it’s clear that support for the Palestinians remains high among the wider Arab population. As such, the Houthis clearly see an opportunity to step into the vacuum and generate positive public opinion for their cause.

This not only strengthens the Houthis’ authority at home, but is also critical to reinforcing the legitimacy of the Houthis as Yemen’s governing authority in the eyes of the international community.

Why is the Bab el Mandab Strait important?

Yemen has always been at the centre of regional geopolitics due to its strategic location on the Bab el Mandab Strait, also known as the “Gate of Tears,” which separates the Red Sea from the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean beyond.

Because vessels need to traverse the 30-kilometre-wide strait to travel between Europe and Asia (via the Suez Canal), it serves a pivotal role in global trade and energy security. Oil and natural gas shipments pass through the strait from the Middle East to Europe and North America.

Historically, the strait is no stranger to conflict. In 1973, for instance, Egypt blockaded the strait to prevent ships from reaching Israel during the October war.

The Houthis are aware of how critical this waterway is. And its attacks on the vessels, which may seem to be a nuisance for now, could potentially cause larger problems for Israel and its allies.

For Israel, diverting its shipments to Asia around the southern tip of Africa – instead of through the Red Sea – would significantly increase shipping costs and transit times.

Any disruption to this trading route would have serious global economic costs, as well. Global maritime insurance companies are already hiking their prices and limiting their coverage of high-risk shipping as a direct result of the Houthi attacks.

The Houthi threat also serves to ratchet up the wider tensions in the region, potentially changing the calculus of the US and Israel, who might become more cautious in their actions as a result.

For the Houthis, these provocations are ultimately low cost and high return. Given the insurgent, battle-hardened and dispersed nature of the group, for example, it would be difficult for Israel or its allies to try to respond to the attacks. So, as long as the war in Gaza drags on, the Houthis will likely continue to play a disruptive role and look for new ways to create uncertainty and risk in the region.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why Yemen’s Houthis are getting involved in the Israel-Hamas war and how it could disrupt global shipping – https://theconversation.com/why-yemens-houthis-are-getting-involved-in-the-israel-hamas-war-and-how-it-could-disrupt-global-shipping-219220

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Bartos, Professor of Economics, University of Canberra

The national accounts released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics show economic growth slid to a measly 0.2% in the last quarter.

That’s well down from a low 0.4% in the June quarter.

Of course, economic growth is not everything. The national accounts don’t measure, for example, unpaid work at home or caring work, volunteering work, or the state of Australia’s environment.

That said, other things being equal, it is better to have economic growth than a recession. Economic growth creates jobs and opportunities.

The miserably low rate of economic growth unveiled on Wednesday is cause for concern.

GDP per head is shrinking

Among the many reasons for the collapse, the most obvious is high interest rates.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the slump was an “inevitable consequence” of higher interest rates and international uncertainty.

For individual Australians, it was even worse – growth per head went backward, in what some economists call a “per capita recession”.

GDP per capita fell 0.5% in the quarter to be down 0.3% over the year.

Applied specifically to households, the statistics show disposable income per head falling for the second consecutive quarter.

In the September quarter, it slid 1.4% after sliding 1.7% in the June quarter.

Disposable income is buying power adjusted for inflation, net of tax. For households coming off fixed mortgages, the collapse is much greater.

The slide in ready income has forced households in aggregate to as good as stop saving in order to make ends meet.

The household saving ratio has dropped from a peak of 20.4% of income during the COVID lockdowns to just 1.1% – the least in 16 years.

The ultra-low aggregate rate means that while some households are saving, many are using up what they had previously put away.

The real value of household spending grew not at all in the September quarter and climbed only 0.4% over a year in which Australia’s population grew by more than 2.4%.

The Bureau of Statistics said some of the restraint in recorded household spending was a statistical anomaly, caused by the treatment of government measures including electricity rebates and expansion of the childcare subsidies, which saw increased government spending on behalf of households.

The one bright spot identified by the bureau was “large-scale events including the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup” (go Matildas!). This helped push up spending on hotels, cafes and restaurants 0.9% and transport 3.9%.

Productivity turns back up

One positive from the depressing national accounts is that they will cause the Reserve Bank to think harder about whether further interest rate rises are needed.

Chalmers said the figures showed consumption was flat before the bank’s November rate rise, and it was open to the bank to explain “what if anything today’s outcome means for their own forecasts”.

Another bright spot is productivity. After falling for five consecutive quarters, GDP per hour worked climbed 0.9% in the September quarter, allowing the bank to feel more relaxed about wage rises above its inflation target.

The drivers of productivity are complex, with skills and training, management quality, investment, competition and innovation all part of the picture. The Australian treasury published a good overview of what is involved late last year.

In bad news for incomes, Australia’s terms of trade fell 2.6%.

The terms of trade measure the price we get for exports compared to the price we pay for imports. They are down 9% from their peak last year.

Export prices fell by 1.4% in the quarter due to lower prices for coal and gas exports. Import prices climbed 1.2%.

The changed trading environment helped push Australia’s current account back into deficit after five years in which it has been mostly in surplus.

The current account records the value of the flow of goods, services and income between Australian residents and the rest of the world. In the September quarter we sent more money out of Australia than came in.

The current account is volatile. While we have grown used to surpluses, we cannot expect the odds to be ever in our favour.

A more dynamic economy would help. That would mean more creation (and destruction) of companies. More investment in skills and training would help this along.

Greater dynamism is a challenge for everyone – one we have to meet to improve our chances of better news in future national accounts.

Stephen Bartos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The 7 charts that show Australians struggling as saving falls to near zero – https://theconversation.com/the-7-charts-that-show-australians-struggling-as-saving-falls-to-near-zero-218924

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Patrick O’Connor, Associate Professor, University of Adelaide

Australians woke up this morning to discover they had a nature repair market, after the legislation passed late last night.

Except it won’t be called a market, after amendments by the Greens, and it won’t include biodiversity offsets.

Many experts have been highly sceptical of using market forces to reverse the damage we’ve done to nature. There is some truth to this. Markets seek to find the point of exchange between sellers (here, farmers and landholders) and buyers (fund managers, government and philanthropic organisations). When a government invents a market, it can try to make it appealing to politics, principles and buyers, while buyers work to drive prices and standards down, and volumes up.

But as someone who has run nature-based market mechanisms in Australia for 20 years, I regard the passing of this legislation as a tentative step forwards. Market mechanisms can work, if done right. The sheer scale of what we have done to nature means we need large-scale action. Giving nature repair projects a tradeable value and government-backed quality assurance could help – if it works for both nature and investors.

Even though the bill has passed, there is much detail we are yet to see. And as we all know, the devil is in the detail.

Can a bill like this work without offsets?

When first proposed, conservationists criticised the nature repair bill’s allowance of offsets – essentially, if you clear land for a development in one place, you have to revegetate or protect a similar amount of land elsewhere. That’s because offsets can be seen as an easy solution – pay money and you can still trash nature. Or a developer might rip out scarce threatened species habitat and replant acacias, of which we have a vast amount.

Now the offsets are gone. Or are they? This bill is not the end of the line. The harder debate is yet to come as the government prepares reform of the far bigger Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act – the main environmental protection laws we have at federal level, and widely regarded as not currently up to the task.

The government is likely to include offsets in this act rather than the Nature Repair Act. Why? Because development of any kind involves making changes to nature – and we will need a lot of new infrastructure as we work towards net zero, such as transmission lines for renewable energy projects.

The government will want to use offsetting to compensate nature for losses from new infrastructure. If there are no offsets available, you either do the development without trying to repair nature, or don’t do the development at all. The fight over offsetting may only have been kicked down the road.

Read more:
Australia relies on controversial offsets to meet climate change targets. We might not get away with it in Egypt

So what do we have that we didn’t have yesterday?

We will now have a market framework that will make it possible to buy and sell certificates generated by certified nature repair projects.

For example, for koala habitat this could include reducing stock grazing, managing weeds and pest animals and agreeing to a covenant on the land to prevent future habitat loss due to development.

This isn’t the first time we’ve tried to use market forces for nature. Auctions for biodiversity gains, for instance, have worked well in the past and are working now in New South Wales.

Read more:
The government hopes private investors will help save nature. Here’s how its scheme could fail

There are lessons to learn from the problems the carbon credit market has faced around integrity. But we don’t have to make the same mistakes for a biodiversity market.

A recent review I coauthored of pilots for the previously proposed biodiversity market points to important lessons from earlier efforts. These include the vital importance of reducing upfront costs for landholders who want to get involved and building trust and confidence in the supporting arrangements.

This will require some public investment to support landholders to meet the measurement and planning costs to participate in the market.

Australia needs to act and act quickly to protect and restore nature where further degradation would be difficult or impossible to reverse. We have recognised the need for action and signed up to international commitments to protect and restore 30% of the continent’s lands and waters by 2030.

Read more:
‘Nature positive’ isn’t just planting a few trees – it’s actually stopping the damage we do

Why would investors plough money into nature?

Many reasons. The main one is the growing recognition of how the health of nature underpins the global economy and traditional investment assets such as agriculture. The World Economic Forum estimates biodiversity credit values could reach A$3 billion by 2030 and $104 billion by 2050.

Demand is rising, driven by regulation, corporate reputation and mission, market edge and attractiveness to investors. Organisations like the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures are driving work on nature-related risks and opportunities for finance globally.

While there has been scepticism about whether the market really exists for nature repair in Australia, there are some signs investors are ready. For instance, Western Australia’s first green bond was greatly oversubscribed at its launch this year, promising to invest in projects with environmental benefits such as energy transition.

We won’t see investing in nature repair ramp up until all necessary laws and regulations are in place, projects begin to generate credits and the risks and opportunities are clear. This could take a couple of years, but could take longer if the reforms to the environment act are held up.

The design of the new market remains unclear and its success in channelling private funds into genuine nature repair will depend on the standards and rules still to be set.

We should set the standard high and make the most of our expertise in good governance, technology and innovation to make Australia’s natural world an attractive place to invest.

Read more:
Can a ‘nature repair market’ really save Australia’s environment? It’s not perfect, but it’s worth a shot

Patrick O’Connor has received funding from the Australian Research Council, the South Australian, Victorian, New South Wales and Australian governments including the NSW Biodiversity Conservation Trust. He is a board director of the Nature Conservation Society of SA, a committee member of the Restoration Decade Alliance and a councillor of the Biodiversity Council.

– ref. Can the government’s new market mechanism help save nature? Yes – if we get the devil out of the detail – https://theconversation.com/can-the-governments-new-market-mechanism-help-save-nature-yes-if-we-get-the-devil-out-of-the-detail-218713

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lily Hospers, PhD Candidate, University of Sydney

Australia is braced for a hot, dry summer. El Nino is back, and this year it will occur alongside an Indian Ocean dipole, a climate pattern which will further amplify this hot and dry effect.

Hot weather can place great stress on our bodies. When the environmental conditions exceed the limit at which we can adequately cope, we can suffer from heat-related illnesses.

Heat illnesses can vary, from relatively mild heat exhaustion to the potentially life-threatening condition of heat stroke.

Read more:
Extreme weather is landing more Australians in hospital – and heat is the biggest culprit

What are the signs and symptoms?

If you’re suffering from heat exhaustion, you may feel weakness, nausea, headaches or dizziness.

Mild symptoms of heat exhaustion can often be treated at home by reducing your levels of physical activity, finding shade, removing excess clothing, hydrating with water and perhaps even taking a cool shower.

If left unchecked, heat exhaustion can progress to the far more serious condition of heat stroke, where your core temperature climbs upwards of 40°C. Symptoms can develop rapidly and may include confusion, disorientation, agitation, convulsions, or it could even result in a coma.

Heat stroke is a medical emergency and requires urgent treatment. Call an ambulance and start rapid, aggressive cooling by immersing the person in cold water (such as a cold bath). If this isn’t possible, apply ice packs to their neck, armpits and groin and cover the skin with lots of cool water.

When it comes to cooling someone with suspected heat stroke, the quicker the better: cool first, transport second.

Why do we overheat?

Environmental conditions play an important role in determining our heat stress risk. If the air temperature, humidity and levels of sun exposure are high, we are much more likely to dangerously overheat.

When the body gets hot, the heart pumps more warm blood to our skin to help lose heat. As air temperature rises, this way of shedding heat becomes ineffective. When air temperature is higher than the temperature of the skin (normally around 35°C), we start gaining heat from our surroundings.

Sweating is by far our most effective physiological means of keeping cool. However, it is the evaporation of sweat from our skin that provides cooling relief.

When the air is humid, it already contains a lot of moisture, and this reduces how efficiently sweat evaporates.

Our physical activity levels and clothing also impact heat stress risk. When we move, our bodies generate metabolic heat as a by-product. The more intense physical activity is, the more heat we must lose to avoid dangerous rises in core temperature.

Finally, clothing can act as an insulator and barrier for the evaporation of sweat, making it even more difficult for us to keep cool.

Who is most vulnerable in the heat?

Some people are at greater risk of developing heat illness than others. This can result from physiological limitations, such as a decreased capacity to sweat, or a reduced capacity to adapt our behaviour. When these two risk factors coincide, it’s a perfect storm of vulnerability.

Take, for example, an elderly outdoor agricultural worker. Being aged over 60, their physiological capacity to sweat is reduced. The worker may also be wearing heavy safety clothing, which may further limit heat loss from the body. If they don’t slow down, seek shelter and adequately hydrate, they become even more vulnerable.

Read more:
5 reasons to check on your elderly neighbour during a heatwave

When a person dies of heat stroke – which is relatively easy to diagnose – heat will be listed as a cause of death on a death certificate. Between 2001 and 2018 in Australia, 473 heat-related deaths were officially reported.

However, the true association between heat and death is thought to be far greater, with an estimated 36,000 deaths in Australia between 2006 and 2017.

This is because most people who die during extreme heat events do not die from heat stroke. Instead, they they die of other medical complications such as cardiovascular or renal collapse, as additional strain is placed on essential organs such as the heart and kidneys.

People with underlying health conditions are more likely to succumb to heat-associated complications before they develop critical core temperature (over 40°C) and heat stroke.

In such cases, while the additional physiological strain imposed by the heat probably “caused” the death, the official “cause of death” is often listed as something else, such as a heart attack. This can make understanding the true health burden of extreme heat more difficult.

How to stay safe in the heat

Thankfully, there are effective, low-cost ways of staying safe in the heat. These include:

• staying adequately hydrated
• getting out of the heat to a cooler area indoors or shaded area outdoors
• loosening or removing clothing
• cooling down any way you can:
  • using an electric fan (which can be used at 37°C and below, irrespective of age and humidity)
  • using a cold-water spray
  • applying a cool, damp sponge or cloth
  • wetting clothes and skin
  • having a cool shower or bath
  • applying ice packs or crushed ice in a damp towel on the neck, groin and armpits.

Read more:
Top 10 tips to keep cool this summer while protecting your health and your budget

James Smallcombe receives funding from National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) and the Wellcome Trust.

Ollie Jay receives funding from National Health and Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, NSW Health, NSW Dept of Planning, Industry and Environment, and the NSW Reconstruction Authority (formerly Resilience NSW), Tennis Australia.

Lily Hospers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. It’s extremely hot and I’m feeling weak and dizzy. Could I have heat stroke? – https://theconversation.com/its-extremely-hot-and-im-feeling-weak-and-dizzy-could-i-have-heat-stroke-215084

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael J. I. Brown, Associate Professor in Astronomy, Monash University

Supermassive black holes reside in some of the biggest galaxies in the universe. They tend to be billions of times more massive that our Sun, and not even light itself can escape a black hole once it gets too close.

But it’s not all darkness. Supermassive black holes power some of the most luminous celestial objects in the universe – active galactic nuclei, which shine across the spectrum of light, including radio waves.

The active galactic nucleus in nearby galaxy Messier 87 is a prodigious emitter of radio waves, 27 orders of magnitude more powerful than the most powerful radio transmitters on Earth.

But not all galaxies blast radio waves like Messier 87. Some very massive nearby galaxies have gone undetected in the radio spectrum despite containing supermassive black holes. Are they switched on in the radio at all, or are they – and therefore their black holes – totally silent?

To find out, we searched for radio waves from the most massive galaxies in the nearby universe, with our results now accepted for publication in the Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia.

A big engine

It may seem odd that black holes can power anything. After all, no matter – not even light – can escape a black hole. But a lot can happen before the point of no return, known as the event horizon.

As matter falls towards the black hole, it picks up tremendous speed. Particles can end up travelling close to the speed of light, and when particles smash at that speed, they can release a staggering amount of energy.

Read more:
Curious Kids: how do black holes pull in light?

Several percent of the mass that falls towards a black
hole – “feeds” it – can get released as light. Feed a black hole, and it can be a big engine that blasts out radio waves.

So, supermassive black holes are in all the biggest galaxies, but are they always being fed? That question motivated our study. To listen for radio waves from these enormous objects, we used the ASKAP radio telescope in Western Australia, owned and operated by CSIRO – Australia’s national science agency.

Tuning in on the radio

Way back in the 1940s, astronomers started detecting radio waves from some massive galaxies using the first radio telescopes. This includes galaxies familiar to amateur astronomers, including Messier 87 in the Virgo constellation and NGC 5128 in Centaurus.

As technology advanced, more very massive galaxies were detected in radio waves. In the early 2000s, astronomers found that about a third of very massive galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey were detectable in the radio data from the Very Large Array, located in New Mexico.

A decade ago, our team also used data from the Very Large Array to search for radio emissions from the most massive nearby galaxies. Some were easily detected while others were indistinguishable from noise.

However, there was a strong hint. While the radio signals from the most massive galaxies were sometimes not distinguishable from noise individually, we always found a positive signal.

If some galaxies were not emitting radio waves, we would expect random noise to produce a mix of positive and negative signals. Getting a positive signal every time suggested all massive galaxies are radio sources. But digging into the noise left us unsure, until now.

New telescopes and a new view

There have been major advances in radio telescopes during the past decade, both in radio receivers and computing power. New radio telescopes include the ASKAP radio telescope and the Murchison Widefield Array, both located at Inyarrimanha Ilgari Bundara, CSIRO’s Murchison Radio-astronomy Observatory on Wajarri Yamaji country in Western Australia. There is also the Low Frequency Array (Lofar) in Europe.

These telescopes can survey the sky with greater sensitivity and speed than the previous generation of radio telescopes. For example, the Rapid ASKAP Continuum Survey is just a preliminary radio survey of 83% of the entire sky, but is already three times more sensitive than comparable surveys with the previous generation of radio telescopes.

For our new study, we no longer needed to look for mere hints of the noise. We detected radio waves from all 40 of the most massive galaxies in our survey area.

Read more:
We found some strange radio sources in a distant galaxy cluster. They’re making us rethink what we thought we knew.

Dialled up and down

So, it now looks like all very massive galaxies are emitting radio waves, but are all of their black holes being fed? Most are, but probably not all.

Studies with Lofar suggest some radio sources in massive galaxies are afterglows from earlier activity. It is likely these are temporary pauses, and these black holes will fire up again.

Another piece of the puzzle is the radio power. Two galaxies of the same mass can differ in radio power by a factor of 10,000. Why does this happen?

We don’t know the answer yet, but there are some clues. Our work and a recent study with Lofar find that, on average, the galaxies that rotate the least are the strongest radio wave emitters. Some of the exceptions to this trend are curious, with evidence of mergers with other galaxies.

There is much to learn about very massive galaxies and their black holes, but data from the new generation of radio telescopes has revealed a great deal.

All very massive galaxies emit radio waves, but their power varies. Determining how all this works will be a challenge, but there are clues for astronomers to now follow.

Michael J. I. Brown receives research funding from the Australian Research Council and Monash University.

– ref. Astronomers finally caught radio waves from 40 large galaxies in the nearby universe – https://theconversation.com/astronomers-finally-caught-radio-waves-from-40-large-galaxies-in-the-nearby-universe-219205

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Collins, Laureate Professor in Nutrition and Dietetics, University of Newcastle

Why do some farts smell and some don’t, and some feel hot? – Kian, age 6, from Maleny in Queensland

Hi Kian, thanks for your interesting questions!

Let’s start with the smell. Whether or not farts smell depends on what you’ve been eating and whether or not you have an upset tummy.

Having a tummy bug can also change the smell of your poo, especially if you have diarrhoea (runny poo). This is because of the smell of undigested food and the bugs, too.

Read more:
Curious kids: do whales fart and sneeze?

Really smelly farts

When you digest food your intestines produce gas as part of the normal process of breaking food down.

Most gasses produced – like carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen and methane – don’t smell at all. That is why you can fart sometimes and nobody really notices.

But there is one gas found in some farts that is really really smelly. It’s called hydrogen sulphide and has the nickname “rotten egg gas” because that is exactly what it smells like.

This is why sometimes you can do a small fart but everyone has to hold their nose. These smelly farts contain more hydrogen sulphide.

Food and farts

If you eat foods that have a lot of sulphur, your gut will produce more hydrogen sulphide.

Some vegetables have a lot of sulphur, such as broccoli, Brussels sprouts, cauliflower, cabbage, kale, turnips and Asian greens.

Meat does too. If you eat a really huge piece of meat, your body can have trouble digesting it all at once.

As you digest food, it moves from your stomach into the large intestine or colon. Once the foods with sulphur get there, bugs in your gut break them down and produce the hydrogen sulphide gas.

If a lot of it builds up and gets released in a fart, it will be very, very smelly.

Read more:
How much food should my child be eating? And how can I get them to eat more healthily?

So why do farts sometimes feel hot?

Farts sometimes feel hot because of the temperature difference between inside your body, which is a very warm 37 degrees, and the air temperature outside, which is usually cooler.

This means that fart gas feels hot as it moves from your large intestine, leaves through the opening in your bottom called the anus, and touches the cooler skin.

You’re not as likely to notice the temperature if farts comes out really fast because speedy ones don’t have as much contact with your bottom.

There is another reason why farts can feel hot. Sometimes people get a hot or burning feeling in their bottom after they eat really spicy food. This is due to a spicy food chemical called capsaicin.

If you eat food that has chilli or hot spices in it, the capsaicin makes your mouth feel hot. When you eat lots and lots of spicy food, some of the capsaicin travels all the way to your large intestine and gets passed out in your poo.

The capsaicin then gives you a hot feeling in your bottom when you go to the toilet. The reaction is the same as that burning feeling in your mouth after eating spicy food, except it happens at the other end.

Did you know there are fart-proof undies?

Researchers did some experiments to test whether they could catch fart smells by getting people to wear special undies that can absorb hydrogen sulphide gas.

And the experiments worked!

Now a company in Australia sells these undies to help people who have gut problems. Their company says it wants to help people “fart with confidence”.

Read more:
Health Check: what happens when you hold in a fart?

Clare Collins AO is a Laureate Professor in Nutrition and Dietetics at the University of Newcastle, NSW and a Hunter Medical Research Institute (HMRI) affiliated researcher. She is a National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Leadership Fellow and has received research grants from NHMRC, ARC, MRFF, HMRI, Diabetes Australia, Heart Foundation, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, nib foundation, Rijk Zwaan Australia, WA Dept. Health, Meat and Livestock Australia, and Greater Charitable Foundation. She has consulted to SHINE Australia, Novo Nordisk, Quality Bakers, the Sax Institute, Dietitians Australia and the ABC. She was a team member conducting systematic reviews to inform the 2013 Australian Dietary Guidelines update and the Heart Foundation evidence reviews on meat and dietary patterns.

– ref. Curious Kids: why do some farts smell and some don’t? And why do some farts feel hot? – https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-why-do-some-farts-smell-and-some-dont-and-why-do-some-farts-feel-hot-215064

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Arrow, Professor of History, Macquarie University

The inner workings of magazines, television stations and newspapers have been rich fodder for film and television for decades.

From All the President’s Men (1976) to Frontline (1994–7), Paper Giants: The Birth of Cleo (2011) and The Newsreader (2022–3), we remain fascinated by stories of how our media are made. These kinds of films and series immediately immerse viewers in a precise historical setting and allow commentary on it. This year’s series of The Newsreader reminded us of the divide in Australian culture over the bicentenary commemorations of 1988.

Set around 2012 (when Tinder was a “new app”), Strife is a fictionalised adaptation of Mia Freedman’s 2017 memoir, Work Strife Balance, which told the story of starting her hugely successful women’s website Mamamia in her lounge room in 2007.

By 2014, the site was attracting 2 million to 4 million women a month and Freedman was famous. In the mid-2010s she was one of Australia’s most highly visible feminist faces, dropping soundbites on Sunrise and writing confessional essays about her life.

Freedman was relatable yet highly successful, a “busy mum” who was open about her shortcomings and the moments where the “wheels fall off”.

Strife’s Evelyn Johnson (Asher Keddie) is a spikier, colder figure than Freedman appears to be. She is running Eve, a new women’s website, but she’s two months behind on the rent. She has left her marriage and is living alone in a city apartment; she is co-parenting two teenage children with her estranged husband (Matt Day).

Evelyn is singularly focused on making her website work. She is tough on her writers, a bit forgetful about her children’s activities, and doesn’t really know how to cook. Here, the series treads a fine line between making Evelyn relatable and simply foolish: turning up to her daughter’s hockey game with the halftime oranges still in their string bag, or trying to make a last-minute family meal with a slow cooker.

The art of the confessional

As the series begins, Evelyn is struggling with writer’s block – not great timing for an editor running a site that is losing money. But by the end of the first episode, she writes a piece called “I ended my marriage over a flat white”.

It goes viral, and Eve has found its formula.

Evelyn tells one of her writers who is nervous about exposing her personal life for clicks “it can be empowering to share if you’re the one telling the story”.

Strife has an impeccable pedigree for a bingeable women’s drama: it was produced by Bruna Papandrea, whose credits include Big Little Lies, and it stars Asher Keddie, one of Australia’s most bankable television stars. Eve’s writers are a diverse bunch, oversharing and endlessly scrambling for story ideas. The series is set in the world of Sydney’s eastern suburbs, full of well-dressed women dropping their kids at private schools in 4WDs.

In other words, it is aspirational – and more than a little oblivious about the privileged world it depicts.

Despite claiming to be a “feminist publisher”, Evelyn shoots down most politically and socially aware story ideas because they won’t “get clicks”. The success of Eve is measured entirely in page views, clicks and advertising deals. Hiring young women to work as unpaid interns also seems at odds with Evelyn’s feminist credentials: indeed, one tells Evelyn she “can’t work for free”.

Evelyn’s relationships with her family and friends are the other main subject of the drama. A quick check of her browser history reveals her son is watching porn; she tries to broach the subject of buying a first bra with her daughter; a friend has put a profile of her husband on Tinder because she doesn’t want to have sex with him anymore.

While all of these topics would work for an Eve confessional essay, the series breezes over them far too quickly to capitalise on their dramatic potential.

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A uncertain tone

Strife’s brand of feminism – where empowerment comes from telling personal stories online – is very much of the mid-2010s, when women’s online media were on the rise.

As gender studies academic Kath Kenny points out, confessional story-telling emerged at the same time media budgets were being cut: after all, confessions don’t require research or reporting. While this kind of writing can raise awareness of important issues, it’s not enough to solve them. “Girlboss feminism” is still with us, unfortunately, but I think we know now that we won’t solve the gender pay gap or domestic violence with mere “empowerment”.

Keddie’s brittle performance here recalls her outstanding work in Love My Way, where she wasn’t afraid to make her character unlikeable. Tina Bursill is cool as ever as Evelyn’s mother, and Maria Angelico is terrific as Eve’s editor.

But despite some wry jokes, the series’ tone is uncertain, and Evelyn’s confessions are largely of other people’s experiences. Perhaps if Evelyn was more willing to confront her own shortcomings we’d have the making of real drama.

Strife left me with the jittery feeling you get after spending too many hours in an office in front of a computer screen. Which, considering that’s probably how Eve’s writers feel, might be quite the achievement.

Strife is on Binge from today.

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Michelle Arrow receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Asher Keddie is outstanding in Strife – but the show gives us an uneven look at girlboss feminism – https://theconversation.com/asher-keddie-is-outstanding-in-strife-but-the-show-gives-us-an-uneven-look-at-girlboss-feminism-217364

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted November 29 to December 3 from a sample of 1,605, gave Labor 35% of the primary vote (steady since November), the Coalition 34% (up four), the Greens 12% (down one), One Nation 5% (down two), the UAP 1% (down one), independents 9% (steady) and others 3% (down one).

Resolve doesn’t give a two party estimate until near elections, but an estimate based on 2022 election preference flows gives Labor a 55–45 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since November.

In my November article on Resolve, I said the big Labor lead was not supported by other recent polls, and this still applies. Last week’s Newspoll had a 50–50 tie with the Coalition seven points ahead of Labor on primary votes, while Resolve has Labor one point ahead on primaries.

On Anthony Albanese’s performance, 48% said it was poor and 37% good, for a net approval of -11, down five points. Peter Dutton’s net approval was down four points to -8. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 42–28 (40–27 in November).

Immigration has been in the news recently, and the Liberals led Labor on the immigration and refugees issue by 33–22, out from 28–25 in November. On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led by 26–21, the same margin as in November (29–24). On economic management, the Liberals led by 35–27, virtually unchanged from November (34–27).

By 43–18, voters supported the government limiting spending growth on the NDIS to 8% a year (37–17 in May). On how to limit spending, 38% thought restrictions should be placed on who is given support, 26% didn’t want any spending restrictions and 18% wanted a cap on the amount of money paid to each participant.

Morgan poll and upcoming Dunkley byelection

A federal Morgan poll, conducted November 27 to December 3 from a sample of 1,730, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since last week. Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (up 2.5), 32.5% Labor (up 0.5), 12.5% Greens (down one), 5% One Nation (steady), 8.5% independents (down 0.5) and 4% others (down 1.5).

Labor’s federal MP for the Victorian seat of Dunkley, Peta Murphy, died from breast cancer on Monday. In 2022, Murphy defeated the Liberals by 56.3–43.7. A byelection will be needed in Dunkley in the new year.

It’s close in a Queensland Resolve poll

The Queensland state election will be held in October 2024. A Resolve poll for The Brisbane Times, conducted over four months from September to December from a sample of 940, gave the Liberal National Party 37% of the primary vote (down one since May to August), Labor 33% (up one), the Greens 12% (up one), One Nation 8% (steady), independents 7% (down one) and others 3% (steady).

The Poll Bludger says the primary votes suggest a “fairly even split on two-party preferred”. However, the clearly better results for Labor in Resolve’s federal polls than in other polls makes me more sceptical of this poll. The last Queensland YouGov poll, in early October, gave the LNP a 52–48 lead.

Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s net likeability was down two points since August to -17, while LNP leader David Crisafulli’s net likeability was up two to +9. Crisafulli led Palaszczuk as preferred premier by 39–34 (37–36 previously).

It looks as if Crisafulli is doing much better than expected given voting intentions. It’s rare for an opposition leader to be ahead on preferred premier. There has been recent speculation that Palaszczuk could be replaced as Labor leader and premier before the next election.

Labor has governed in Queensland since 2015. Although this poll is more positive for Labor, the overall trend this year has been to the LNP. I believe the LNP is the clear favourite to win the next Queensland election.

Tasmania, WA and the NT

A Tasmanian state EMRS poll, conducted November 20–27 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 39% (up one since August), Labor 29% (down three), the Greens 12% (down two) and all Others 19% (up three). Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house, so a two party estimate is not applicable.

In May the Liberals slumped to a 36–31 lead over Labor from 42–30 in February, but have since recovered. Incumbent Liberal Jeremy Rockliff led Labor’s Rebecca White as preferred premier by 42–35 (42–39 in August).

The Western Australian state redistribution has been finalised. These boundaries will apply to lower house seats contested at the March 2025 WA election. The Poll Bludger said the draft redistribution’s plan to merge two rural seats and create a new urban seat has been maintained.

Very large notional Labor margins in many seats reflect Labor’s record 69.7–30.3 landslide at the 2021 WA election, in which they won 53 of the 59 lower house seats. Labor is virtually certain to lose many seats in 2025.

A Redbridge Northern Territory poll, conducted November 16–18 from a sample of 601, gave the Country Liberal Party 40.6% of the primary vote, Labor 19.7%, the Greens 13.1%, the Shooters 9.4% and independents 14.9%. No two party estimate was provided.

If these results were replicated at the next NT election in August 2024, the incumbent Labor government would be defeated. There were similar results for federal NT voting intentions.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Labor down but still has large lead in federal Resolve poll; it’s close in Queensland – https://theconversation.com/labor-down-but-still-has-large-lead-in-federal-resolve-poll-its-close-in-queensland-219012

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ivan Smirnov, Research Fellow, University of Technology Sydney

We’re now sadly used to seeing toxic exchanges play out on social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter), Facebook and TikTok.

But Wikipedia is a reference work. How heated can people get over an encyclopedia?

Our research, published today, shows the answer is very heated. For example, one Wikipedia editor wrote to another:

i will find u in real life and slit your throat.

That’s a problem for many reasons, but chief among them is if Wikipedia goes down in a ball of toxic fire, it might take the rest of the internet’s information infrastructure with it.

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The internet’s favourite encyclopedia

In some ways, Wikipedia is both an encyclopedia and a social media platform.

It’s the fourth most popular website on the internet, behind only such giants as Google, YouTube and Facebook.

Every day, millions of people worldwide use it for quick fact-checks or in-depth research.

And what happens to Wikipedia matters beyond the platform itself because of its central role in online information infrastructure.

Google search relies heavily on Wikipedia and the quality of its search results would decrease substantially if Wikipedia disappeared.

But it’s not just an increasingly authoritative source of knowledge. Even though we don’t always lump Wikipedia in with other social media platforms, it shares some common features.

It relies on contributors to create the content that the public will view and it creates spaces for those contributors to interact. Wikipedia relies solely on the work of volunteers: no one is paid for writing or editing content.

Moreover, no one checks the credentials of editors — anyone can make a contribution. This arguably makes Wikipedia the most successful collaborative project in history.

However, the fact that Wikipedia is a collaborative platform also makes it vulnerable.

A 2015 survey found 38% of surveyed Wikipedia users had experienced harassment on the platform.

What if the collaborative environment deteriorates, and its volunteer editors abandon the project?

What effect do toxic comments have on Wikipedia’s editors, content and community?

Abusive comments lead to disengaging

To answer this question, we started with Wikipedia’s “user’s talk pages”. A user’s talk page is a place where other editors can interact with the user. They can post messages, discuss personal topics, or extend discussions from an article’s talk page.

Every editor has a personal user’s talk page, and the majority of toxic comments made on the platform are on these pages.

We collected information on 57 million comments made on the user’s talk pages of 8.5 million editors across the six most active language editions of Wikipedia (English, German, French, Italian, Spanish and Russian) over a period of 20 years.

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We then used a state-of-the-art machine learning algorithm to identify toxic comments. The algorithm looked for attributes a human might consider toxic, like insults, threats, or identity attacks.

We compared the activity of editors before and after they received a toxic comment, as well as with a control group of similar editors who received a non-toxic rather than toxic comment.

We found receiving a single toxic comment could reduce an editor’s activity by 1.2 active days in the short term. Considering that 80,307 users on English Wikipedia alone have received at least one toxic comment, the cumulative impact could amount to 284 lost human-years.

Moreover, some users don’t just contribute less. They stop contributing altogether.

We found that the probability of leaving Wikipedia’s community of contributors increases after receiving a toxic comment, with new users being particularly vulnerable. New editors who receive toxic comments are nearly twice as likely to leave Wikipedia as would be expected otherwise.

Wide-ranging consequences

This matters more than you might think to the millions who use Wikipedia.

First, toxicity likely leads to poorer-quality content on the site. Having a diverse editor cohort is a crucial factor for maintaining content quality. The vast majority of Wikipedian editors are men, which is reflected in the content on the platform.

There are fewer articles about women, which are shorter than articles about men and more likely to centre on romantic relationships and family-related issues. They are also more often linked to articles about the opposite gender. Women are often described as wives of famous people rather than for their own merits, for example.

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While multiple barriers confront women editors on Wikipedia, toxicity is likely one of the key factors that contributes to the gender imbalance. Although men and women are equally likely to face online harassment and abuse, women experience more severe violations and are more likely to be affected by such incidents, including self-censoring.

This may affect other groups as well: our research showed that toxic comments often include not just gendered language but also ethnic slurs and other biases.

Finally, a significant rise in toxicity, especially targeted attacks on new users, could jeopardise Wikipedia’s survival.

Following a period of exponential growth in its editor base during the early 2000s, the number has been largely stable since 2016, with the exception of a brief activity spike during the COVID pandemic. Currently about the same number of editors join the project as leave, but the balance could be easily tipped if the people left because of online abuse.

That would damage not only Wikipedia, but also the rest of the online information infrastructure it helps to support.

There’s no easy fix to this, but our research shows promoting healthy communication practices is critical to protecting crucial online information ecosystems.

Ivan Smirnov ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Wikipedia’s volunteer editors are fleeing online abuse. Here’s what that could mean for the internet (and you) – https://theconversation.com/wikipedias-volunteer-editors-are-fleeing-online-abuse-heres-what-that-could-mean-for-the-internet-and-you-218517

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tom Carruthers, Co-president, Australian Science Communicators, and Adjunct Lecturer, Science Communication, The University of Western Australia

A stir went through the Australian science communication community last week, caused by an article with the headline Science communicators need to stop telling everybody the universe is a meaningless void. In meetings and online back channels we cried “not ALL science communicators!”

As experts in science communication, we think the article got a few things right but also a lot wrong. As science communication researchers have recognised for decades, some people who communicate science don’t really take their audiences into account. Instead they rely on the “deficit model”, which wrongly suggests you can change people’s beliefs and behaviours simply by giving them facts to fill perceived gaps in their knowledge.

However, this isn’t the whole story. Science communicators are not evangelists for the science-only worldview of scientism. Many science communicators think very deeply about what values matter to people, and how to reach their audiences.

Good science communicators put a lot of work into understanding audiences. Sometimes we undertake research programs to understand attitudes, values and worldviews so we can communicate empathetically with audiences, not just transmit information. Yet much of this work is invisible to the public – and clearly it isn’t widely recognised.

What is science communication?

Science communication is sometimes characterised as science marketing, but many of us would reject that label. We love to share our passion for science, but we are not uncritical cheerleaders for it.

We see science as part of humanity’s grand project to solve many challenges. We are not ignorant of the broader social context. Most of us do not believe science is everything, and we talk about its limitations. We also recognise the need to provide hope even in the face of catastrophic predictions.

Many of us would agree some science popularisers (we use the term deliberately) should stop telling people their values-based intuitive beliefs are proved pointless by science. For one thing, telling people their beliefs are wrong is a thoroughly ineffective way to communicate science, especially in a crisis.

Most science communicators work behind the scenes, supporting scientists to share their work, or running campaigns to counter misinformation. Some of us are translators, making information more accessible to decision-makers. Others are interpreters, helping define meaning and relevance of scientific ideas. Some of us are professional storytellers of science.

Being influential behind the scenes means we sometimes struggle to be recognised as experts in our own right, to have our qualifications and specialist training valued, and to have a seat at the table when governments and other organisations make decisions involving science communication.

There is some debate over whether science communication is a discipline in its own right. Regardless, we know through practice and research that fact-bombing by experts has never been an effective way to engage communities in science.

What makes a science communicator?

For some, the key to what makes one a competent science communicator lies in education and training in “threshold concepts” which include

1. audience-centred communication (which relies on understanding your audience)

2. shifting from deficit model-based communication to engagement.

Read more:
Three key drivers of good messaging in a time of crisis: expertise, empathy and timing

Scientists themselves may not have been exposed to these concepts. While some universities teach these skills within science degrees, the depth and orientation of these courses vary.

In Australia, there are only two Masters-level programs in science communication (compared with the Netherlands, which has seven). These programs aim to develop professional skills but are also informed by the history, philosophy and sociology of science, so communicators can reflect deeply and critically on the choices they make.

So-called values-based communication is central to these programs.

At the core, it’s about audience

Values-based communication requires communicators to recognise that audiences have a range of knowledge bases, attitudes, perceptions, experiences and values. All of these influence how they relate to different scientific issues.

A science communication professional will take their audiences’ value systems into account when considering the purpose of their communication.

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God and illness: for some South Africans, there’s more to healing than medicine

A science communicator might decide to point out to some audiences that a virus doesn’t care who we are, so as to emphasise personal risk and responsibility. A different approach may be needed for an audience who believe illness is due to the will of a god.

It’s the communicator’s responsibility to balance the potential harm their communication may cause with the benefit in supporting various audiences. One size definitely does not fit all.

Good communicators understand human values

Many people working in science communication do not have an education or qualifications in science communication. However, the vast majority do communicate with empathy and transparency about their own values. They acknowledge the limitations of science and its interplay with politics, culture, history and economics.

We reflect deeply on the ethical issues arising from our activities and, for those of us working with particularly controversial or contentious sciences, only time will tell whether we have been effective.

There is no doubt some sections of the science community do communicate without taking people’s values in mind. However, this is counter to current scholarship and best practice.

Most science communication professionals carefully take these things into account. We do it because that is the best way to get better societal outcomes, and to do better science that actually reflects the needs of the communities we live in.

Tom Carruthers is a freelance communications specialist working with clients including Science in Public. He is the co-president of the Australian Science Communicators, and adjunct lecturer in science communication at UWA.

Heather Bray is the Coordinator of the Master of Science Communication at the University of Western Australia and is involved in both teaching and research in science communication. She is a current member of Australian Science Communicators.

Matthew Nurse is an associate lecturer of science communication at the Australian National Centre for the Public Awareness of Science at ANU. He has previously received Research Training Program funding from the Commonwealth Government. He is a current member of Australian Science Communicators.

– ref. Fact-bombing by experts doesn’t change hearts and minds. But good science communication can – https://theconversation.com/fact-bombing-by-experts-doesnt-change-hearts-and-minds-but-good-science-communication-can-218030