IMF Survey: Ebola Subsides, Economic Impact Lingers

April 22, 2015

MIL OSI – Source: International Monetary Fund – IMF Survey: Ebola Subsides, Economic Impact Lingers

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

IMF Survey

April 21, 2015

Ebola epidemic recedes, leaving deep economic scars
Falling commodity prices hindering recovery
Infrastructure investment needed to help increase growth

Finance ministers from three fragile states in sub-Saharan Africa said their economies were struggling to get back on track.

The ministers from Liberia, Central African Republic, and Madagascar told a news conference during the IMF-World Bank Spring meetings in Washington that the slow global economy is making recovery more difficult. Abdalla Kadre Assane, of the Central African Republic, said after almost three years of massive insecurity, the country lacks the resources required to stabilize its institutions ahead of general elections scheduled for August. And Gervais Rokotoarimanana said Madagascar will be asking the IMF for funds under the Extended Credit Facility to help the country recover from the effects of a political crisis that ended in January 2014. But the overriding issue was Ebola. “The disease ravaged our economy beyond imagination”, said Amara Konneh, Liberia’s finance minister. Konneh said Liberia had survived the crisis, and the authorities hoped to declare the country Ebola-free by May 15, but added the devastation left by the disease is overwhelming. “Our health care system collapsed, we need to rebuild for resilience. We need to get the kids back in school; we have more orphans, widows and widowers today than we ever had. So we’re redirecting spending and making hard decisions—but the demand is too high, and our resources too little.” Depleted resources Konneh said the Ebola crisis has isolated Liberia from the rest of the world. The pandemic has limited imports, exports, and travel to the point where the government had to increase spending on goods and services “so the country would not collapse.” “It scared everybody away from us. So we’ve had to take some fiscal and monetary measures to maintain macro-economic stability.” Meanwhile, growth projections for the three countries most affected by the Ebola epidemic have been significantly marked down, and Konneh says the current state of the global economy— notably China’s slow down— isn’t helping get growth back to pre-crisis levels. “We want to go back from 1 to 6 percent growth in the shortest period of time, so we’ll need to invest in activities that will diversify the economy. Because with the declining commodity prices driven by slow global growth, our major commodities like iron ore and rubber have suffered a lot.” Knock-on effects of Chinese slowdown Assane and Rokotoarimanana said they too were worried about the impact of China’s slowing economy not only because of the effect on commodity prices, but because China has been involved in infrastructure improvement projects in both their countries. Rokotoarimanana said they were looking forward to more Chinese investment in Madagascar, but those projects are now on hold. “China has built hospitals, and some cultural infrastructure, and we were hoping they would help us rebuild our road infrastructure” The three finance ministers agreed that infrastructure investment is key to increasing economic growth. Konneh said the single most important hindrance to the region’s economic development is the lack of reliable and cheap electricity. They wouldn’t be so dependent on China buying raw materials, he said, if only they could start manufacturing products themselves. “We have commodities, but we cannot add value to the commodities because we don’t have electricity.” – ]]>

SAMOA: PM attacks Bainimarama as ‘drum playing’ leader over Forum

By Selwyn Manning -

April 22, 2015

MIL OSI Analysis – Pacific Media Watch/Pacific Media Centre

Prime Minister Tuilaepa Sa’ilele Mailelegaoi … New Zealand and Australia are needed. Image: Omar Torres/RA

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Item: 9230

Mata’afa Keni Lesa APIA (Samoa Observer/Radio New Zealand International/ Pacific Media Watch): Fijian Prime Minister Voreqe Bainimarama is back on Samoan Prime Minister Tuilaepa Sa’ilele Malielegaoi’s hit list. This time, Bainimarama has upset Tuilaepa by calling for the removal of New Zealand and Australia from the Pacific Islands Forum. Asked for a comment, Tuilaepa did not hold back. “Bainimarama’s issue is insignificant,” he said. “Remember all the man did was to play the drums (in the military) and train.” “So he doesn’t understand these things. He is only new and he is still learning about matters of international relations.” Tuilaepa said Bainiamarama’s area of speciality was to “play the drum and yell left, right, stop!” Forum needs funds If New Zealand and Australia are not removed from the Forum, Bainimarama wants China to be included in the group. New Zealand’s Prime Minister,John Key, rejected the call, saying it was a joke. “A Pacific Forum without Australia and New Zealand would be an interesting thing I suppose, in that those leaders would be able to talk about things,” Key told the media. “But exactly where would they get the money to do anything, and the answer is nowhere.” Tuilaepa agreed with Key. He said that many years ago the body known as the South Pacific Commission (now the Secretariat of the Pacific Community) involved only Samoa, Fiji and Tonga. New Zealand and Australia, he said, were brought in to fund the plans of the Forum. Fast forward to today, and the Forum now had 16 members. “The Forum is made up of 14 very poor nations and then these two nations who fund the plans by these 14 very pour nations,” Tuilaepa said. “Now John Key is right. He has hit the mark because that’s why New Zealand and Australia came in, they fund our stuff.” Key ‘dangling funds’ But Bainimarama last week rejected Key’s comments, accusing him of “dangling funds” over the Forum. “They only see our relationship is to do with funding and that is their outlook on what our relationship is in the Forum, to dangle funding in front of us,” Bainimarama told Radio Tarana. “Obviously that is a poor view of what our relationship should be like.” Tuilaepa disagreed. “He’s perhaps forgotten that the Forum relies on funding,” he said. “It’s not a body where you talk, talk, talk and go away with air. We talk and implement these plans but we rely on New Zealand and Australia to fund it. “So you need to talk and be mindful of whether there is enough in your pocket to pay for your plans.” Asked about claims that New Zealand and Australia were too domineering, Tuilaepa said this was far from the truth. “No, that’s not the case,” he said. Tuilaepa a ‘lap dog‘ “The decisions are made at the Forum. If Fiji doesn’t want to join the Forum, so what? “The Forum is not going to die. “It’s not as if any money comes from Fiji. It’s the money we get from New Zealand and Australia we are using for our stuff.” Bainimarama responded to his Samoan counterpart’s comments, labelling Tuilaepa a “lap dog”. He said he was not bothered about Tuilapea as he was dancing to the tune of the Australians and the New Zealanders. Bainimarama also took Australia and New Zealand to task for not leading with strong commitments to alleviate climate change.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 New Zealand Licence. ]]>

FIJI: Chiefs taking ‘breaches’ of indigenous rights to UN

By Selwyn Manning -

April 22, 2015

MIL OSI Analysis – Pacific Media Watch/Pacific Media Centre

The claims of violations have been supported by chiefs Ro Teimumu Kepa and Ratu Naiqama Lalabalavu. Image: Gregory Ravoi/ Republika

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Item: 9231

Sally Round WELLINGTON (Radio New Zealand International/ Pacific Media Watch): Indigenous chiefs from Fiji are calling on United Nation (UN) experts and agencies to step in over alleged international treaty breaches by the Fiji government. The claims that indigenous people’s group rights are being violated are contained in a submission signed by the paramount chiefs Ro Teimumu Kepa and Ratu Naiqama Lalabalavu. The submission and a petition are part of a presentation by Fiji non-governmental organisations at the 14th Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues at the UN’s headquarters in New York taking place over the next fortnight, from April 20. Niko Nawaikula of the Fiji Native Tribal Congress told Radio New Zealand Interbnational’s Sally Round it was following up on what had already been noted by several UN bodies in the past few years:

NIKO NAWAIKULA: There have been breaches of our group rights by the passing of these decrees and laws that terminated the Great Council of Chiefs, that take away our name that is our intellectual property, that nationalise the administration and the administration’s use and management of native land and that removed the entrenched provision from our constitution that protected the group rights of indigenous people which included laws relating to native land and laws relating to the establishment of the Great Council of Chiefs. So we asserted that in 2012 and the outcome or the concluding observation of that (UN) Human Rights Committee is: yes, these constitute breaches of the permanent and inalienable rights which are recognised in the ILO C169 which Fiji ratified and all of which are reflected in the United Nations Declaration on Indigenous Rights, by the fact that number one, those documents require as a right for indigenous groups to be first consulted and give their prior and informed consent before any change in any laws or policies that affect them.

SALLY ROUND: What can be done at this forum? In terms of what you are trying to achieve?

NAWAIKULA: Well you know how it is with the UN, the UN is not able to do much, but we want to have the UN informed as well as the international community. We want the UN to, at the very least, remind Fiji as a member state that it had, as every other nation, undertaken to respect and implement the UN Declaration on Indigenous Rights and Fiji especially by ratifying ILO convention 169. Since 2012, since the concerns were noted Fiji has not done anything but in fact has continued with its programme of what it calls mainstreaming to purposely remove the group rights of indigenous people. That’s an aim of this regime to achieve what it calls equality.

ROUND: So this is mainly to shine a spot light on what you feel are breaches by the Fiji government of indigenous rights?

NAWAIKULA: Correct, because you know, that’s the most the UN can do and it’s the same not only for Fiji, it’s the same for any country.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 New Zealand Licence.

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Fiji needs independent watchdog to watch MIDA for future elections

By David Robie -

April 22, 2015

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MIL OSI – Source: Dr David Robie – Café Pacific – Analysis published with permission of Café Pacific WHILE the Multinational Observer Group’s final report on the first post-coup Fiji general election since 2006 last week found the poll “credible” – as expected based on its preliminary report in spite of the cries of “fraud” by critics – it has offered a raft of recommendations for improvement, including with the news media. Among these recommendations is a call for an independent watchdog for the controversial Fiji Media Industry Development Authority (MIDA), which had a mixed role during the elections. Arguing that should MIDA continue its role in future elections, the final MOG report said there was a need for “an independent institution to adjudicate complaints about its actions”. Citing the 2013 Constitution’s section 17 providing for freedom of “speech, expression and publication”, MOG was in general complimentary about the Fiji news media, saying they “made good efforts to cover the election”. And thus political parties were “to varying degrees” able to communicate to the public. However, the restrictive and vague media framework, including potentially harsh penalties, “limited the media’s ability to rigorously examine the claims of candidates and parties”, the final report said. The amended Political Parties Decree in February 2013 prohibited media for describing prospective parties as “political parties” until they were registered, noted MOG. Fines, jail terms “This included established parties that were seeking reregistration (news organisations faced fines of up to FJ$50,000 or a five-year jail term for violation),” said the report. The report also highlighted the threat of penalties under the Media Industry Development Decree 2010, that established MIDA, but it did not go so far as to recommend scrapping the decree, which Café Pacific advocates. However, in spite of these media restrictions, MOG acknowledged the efforts of the Fiji media. “The press began to report more widely on the political process, including some criticism of the government,” MOG said. The report added that MOG believed that engagement through the media was “essential in order to encourage public ownership of the electoral process”. According to Agence France-Presse, which had the most thorough international coverage of the MOG report, it said the report “criticised the threat of draconian punishments for media deemed to have broken Fiji’s restrictive media laws, or breached a three-day blackout on election reporting in the lead-up to polling day”. Actually, the report never said “draconian” and used surprisingly diplomatic language about the media decree. Campaign blackout MIDA carried out several functions for the elections and the areas most closely monitored by MOG were the authority’s role in media accreditation, policing the campaign blackout and ongoing investigative work. The Fiji Elections Office required all media workers to be accredited by MIDA for the poll. Two days before the election on September 17, MIDA announced that 431 local and 37 international media staff or freelancers were registered with MIDA and accredited by the FEO. The Pacific Media Centre sent two journalists from Auckland to cover the elections but they were interned with local media organisations and accredited as local journalists and filed their stories for Pacific Scoop. The MOG noted that it had received several complaints about this process, “which generally related to a lack of clarity over accreditation procedures”.

The deadline set for submitting applications was considered too early by some media organisations (this was subsequently extended after a suggestion by the MOG) while others were unaware that they had to apply both to MIDA and the FEO for accreditation. The MOG is not, however, aware of any media organisations that applied for accreditation and did not receive it.

Under the Electoral Decree, MIDA had authority to investigate any breaches of the 48-hour campaign blackout before polling day. MIDA also had authority to “approve” – ie be chief censor – reporting during the blackout period.

MIDA provided briefing to local and international media in order to explain the campaign blackout, although many commented this was unclear … The burden this placed on MIDA and media organisations was heavy.

But the report added that MIDA did not take any action against media outlets for breaching the blackout, and it “did not directly hinder” election reporting. Mixed effectiveness The MOG also found the effectiveness of media in providing information for an informed choice on polling day mixed – especially “between the urban and rural areas”. It also noted the coverage of the election campaign in the final stages “included both instances of both neutrality and partiality among the local media”. While the report did not point the finger at any individual media organisations, it said any complaints about biased media coverage “should be addressed and adjudicated by an independent institution regulated by law”. It did not mention MIDA in this context, but clearly the MOG has in mind a “super” watchdog to keep watch on MIDA. The report’s key media recommendations were:

The media accreditation process should be simplified and all media outlets, including international media, should have sufficient advance notice of deadlines and timelines.
The Media Industry Development Authority [MIDA] should issue clear, timely and practical reporting guidance.
Penalties for breaching election-related reporting rules should be reviewed.
Should the MIDA continue in its role in future elections, there is a need for an independent institute to adjudicate complaints about its actions, consistent with Fiji’s legal and constitutional framework.
There is a need for a regulation as well as an independent institution to prevent and adjudicate media biases, thus ensuring a level playing field among election participants.

The MOG website –]]>

Relationship between high birth weight and socio-economic status is complicated, researcher says

By Selwyn Manning -

April 22, 2015

MIL OSI – Source: University of Canterbury – Headline: Relationship between high birth weight and socio-economic status is complicated, researcher says [caption id="attachment_44249" align="aligncenter" width="565"] Dr Rachel Webb, graduating last week.[/caption]

A University of Canterbury economics and finance doctoral researcher who examined issues relating to heavy babies, says the relationship between high birth weight and socio-economic status, obesity, and iron supplements is complicated.

Dr Rachel Webb has just graduated at the University of Canterbury after exploring issues and factors relating to heavy new-born babies.

“Although low socio-economic status is generally detrimental to most health outcomes, it doesn’t appear to be clearly so when it comes to high birth weight risk,” she says.

“Obesity is highly correlated with high birth weight risk. My findings have implications for other people undertaking obesity research in that they should be careful about assuming causal effects of obesity to detrimental health outcomes when the relationship may be partially driven by other factors.

“I didn’t find enough evidence to conclude that iron supplement intake increases high birth weight risk, but I wouldn’t rule it out as a possibility. I unearthed some new evidence relating to fast food restaurants while researching the relationship between maternal obesity and high birth weight risk. A significant relationship between fast food restaurant density and obesity has been a prominent finding by health researchers.

“There are strong correlations between fast food restaurants and obesity risk in a number of studies. However many fail to account for underlying factors that affect both the fast food restaurants location and obesity risk.

“Issues such as ethnicity, whether it is an urban or rural area, age, socio-economic status, level of deprivation of the area, other nearby food options available can all affect both restaurant location and obesity risk.

“It is generally asserted that fast food proximity lowers the cost of eating high calorie food and can lead to higher obesity risk, however many dispute that there is a causal relationship.

“A curious finding from my results was that the fast food restaurant density in a city did not have the expected effect on obesity measures. Many of the big chain fast food restaurants were shown to lower the risk of obesity holding other factors constant.

“This finding cannot be explained as merely substitution away from less healthy takeout options such as fish and chips, towards big chain fast food as I found the overall number of fast food outlets per person in a city was generally insignificant. More research into the effect of fast food on obesity is needed.’’

Dr Webb’s research was supervised by the university’s Dr Andrea Menclova. Dr Webb is teaching at both University of Canterbury International College and for the university’s Department of Economics and Finance.

—

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Nuclear testing legacy haunts Pacific Island countries

By Selwyn Manning -

April 21, 2015

MIL OSI – Source: Pacific Media Centre – Report published with permission of the Pacific Media Centre Headline: Nuclear testing legacy haunts Pacific Island countries The Pacific will be virtually absent from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) review conference at the United Nations next week. Some regard this as an apparent sign of the overall decline of anti-nuclear advocacy in the region, which is seen as a worrying trend that needs to be arrested, writes Shailendra Singh. ANALYSIS: Prominent Pacific Island anti-nuclear campaigners want a revival of their once-robust movement to support the international effort against “nuclearism”. Their call coincides with a major international meeting at the United Nations in New York – the 2015 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) from April 27 to May 22. The NPT is a landmark international treaty whose objective is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology while promoting co-operation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. However, besides Palau, there were no Pacific island countries represented in the 148 States parties that participated in one or more of the annual preparatory meetings held in the lead up to the 2015 NPT. This is despite the Pacific region’s immense contribution to the nuclear disarmament movement, as recorded by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN). At the height of the U.S.-Soviet arms race, members of the South Pacific Forum signed and ratified the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone Treaty (SPNFZ). Moreover, Pacific governments have traditionally voted in favour of resolutions calling for a global treaty banning nuclear weapons at the UN and at various international disarmament summits. This latest NPT review conference will consider ways to promote engagement with civil society in strengthening NPT norms and in promoting disarmament education. Yet, participation by Pacific Islands-based civil society organisations in the conference will be scant. According to Emele Duituturaga, head of the Pacific Islands Association of Civil Society Organisations (PIANGO), none of their national liaison units are represented at the 2015 NPT. Neither is Duituturaga aware of any other NGOs that will represent the region at the conference. Overall decline The Pacific’s absence from a major event such as the NPT is another apparent sign of the overall decline of anti-nuclear advocacy in the region, which some see as a worrying trend that needs to be arrested. Stanley Simpson, formerly assistant director of the now non-operational Fiji-based regional pressure group, Pacific Concerns Resource Centre, said that “nuclearism” was still a threat, even if it might appear dormant. “The danger is not over,” insists Simpson. “We still live with the legacy of nuclear testing and activity.” Nuclear testing in the Pacific began in 1946 and ended in 1996, with the former colonial powers – United States, Britain and France– collectively conducting more than 300 detonations in the region. Nearly 70 years on, the continued refusal of the concerned powers to own up to their past transgressions and compensate victims deepens the sense of injustice felt in the region. In February this year, the Fiji government pledged financial assistance to 24 surviving Fijian soldiers who were on Christmas Island (now Kiribati) during British nuclear tests in the late 1950s. Fijian Prime Minister Voreqe Bainimarama said: “We owe it to these men to help them now, not wait for the British politicians and bureaucrats. We need to erase this blight on our history.” A recent article by the President of the Marshall Islands, Christopher J. Loeak, outlines the callous manner in which his country was treated by the United States. The article appeared in the 2014 publication, Banning Nuclear Weapons: A Pacific perspective, published by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN). Loeak points out that besides the “Bravo” test, which was 1000 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb, 17 other tests  in the Marshall Islands were in the megaton range. The total yield of the tests in the Marshalls comprised nearly 80 percent of the atmospheric total detonated by the United States. Clean up order French Polynesians were similarly treated by the French government, which conducted 193 atmospheric and underground nuclear tests at Moruroa and Fangataufa atolls. The ICAN publication relates the case of a local Maohi (Polynesian) worker at the testing centre after an atmospheric test in September 1966 on Moruroa. The worker was among those instructed to clean up all the debris that littered the roads. The worker stated that the supervisors told them: ‘It’s OK, you can go over there.’ According to David Robie, a journalism professor at AUT University’s Pacific Media Centre in Auckland, New Zealand, the Pacific anti-nuclear movement grew out of a sense of outrage that countries like Britain, France and the United States were using vulnerable Pacific island territories as pawns to carry out tests that they were not willing to carry out in their own backyard. Dr Robie, who covered anti-nuclear issues as an independent jourmalist, authored a book in 1986, Eyes of Fire, about the bombing of the Rainbow Warrior by French state terrorists in 1985. “The arrogance of the North really upset a lot of people in the Pacific,” Dr Robie said. “Newly emerging countries like Vanuatu, led by the late Walter Lini (Prime Minister of Vanuatu) and political leaders like Oscar Temaru, then mayor of the Pape’ete suburb of Fa’aa, declared themselves ‘nuclear-free’ to make a statement of independence.” After Pacific-wide protests forced a halt to French nuclear tests in 1996, the civil society groups at heart of the anti-nuclear movement either scaled down or closed their operations. Some turned their attention to what became regarded as immediate hazards, such as global warming. Dr Robie states that while France was conducting nuclear tests in the Pacific, there was still a big “power ogre” to focus attention on. Once the end of these tests were achieved, other issues took precedence. “In the 1980s, the buzzword was nuclear refugees. Now it is climate change refugees,” says Dr Robie. Anti-nuclear frontline The Fiji anti-Nuclear group (FANG), which was at the frontline of the anti-nuclear movement in the 1980s, is no longer active. The group opposed both French testing in Tahiti and the Fiji government’s policy on allowing nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed ships into the country. The Suva-based Pacific Concerns Resource Center (PCRC), which acted as the secretariat for the Nuclear Free and Independent Pacific (NFIP) movement, has since closed operations. PIANGO’s Duituturaga states that with the closure of the PCRC, the nuclear issue “went off the radar”. Asked if the nuclear danger was over for the Pacific, Duituturaga replied: “No – of course not. Nuclear arms are destructive to all of us – whether or not we are directly involved.” Dr Robie too believes that the Pacific remains exposed. Specific threats include the persistent radioactive contamination from  the tests; the issue of newer fallout from the Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan; and the China-US rivalry, especially with speculation about China’s eventual plans for Taiwan, which raises the spectre of nuclear conflict. According to Simpson, it behoves the Pacific to be part of the disarmament movement. “Nuclear testing is an emotional issue for Pacific Islanders. Pacific people can strengthen the movement’s heart and soul,” states Simpson. Unfortunately, the Pacific presence is unlikely to be felt at the 2015 NPT, which will consider a number of crucial issues, such as nuclear disarmament, and the promotion and strengthening of safeguards. Shailendra Singh is coordinator and senior lecturer in journalism at the School of Language, Arts and Media at the University of the South Pacific. This article was commissioned and first published by IDN-InDepthNews. More information about Eyes of Fire –]]>

iPredict: National/New Zealand First Government Picked – But Without John Key?

By Selwyn Manning -

April 21, 2015

iPredict New Zealand Weekly Economic and Political Update

Tuesday 21 April 2015

www.ipredict.co.nz

iPredict: National/New Zealand First Government Picked – But Without John Key?

The probability of a National Party prime minister after the next election has reached 58% but he or she would govern only with the formal or tacit support of NZ First which would hold the balance of power, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. Moreover, that prime minister may not be incumbent John Key, with traders giving him just a 35% probability of being leader of the National Party by the end of 2017. Paula Bennett remains favoured to replace him, with 44% probability, well ahead of Steven Joyce on 12%. Gerry Brownlee is expected to be the next Speaker of the House of Representatives, replacing David Carter who appears set to replace Sir Lockwood Smith as New Zealand’s next High Commissioner to the United Kingdom. David Cameron is narrowly picked to cling on as prime minister of the UK, while Tony Abbott is expected to hold on in Australia. Hillary Clinton remains favoured to be the next president of the United States. Boris Johnson has a 30% probability of being UK prime minister by 2020.

New Zealand Politics:

· John Key is expected to remain National leader until at least the end of 2016 (90% probability, steady compared with last week) but has just a 35% probability of remaining National leader until at least the end of 2017 (down from 37% last week). Mr Key has a 73% probability of being National leader on Nomination Day before the next General Election (steady compared with last week)

· Andrew Little is expected to remain Labour leader until at least the end of 2016 (83% probability, up from 80% last week) and has a 64% probability of remaining Labour leader until the end of 2017 (up from 63% last week). Mr Little has a 85% probability of being Labour leader on Nomination Day before the next General Election (up from 73% last week)

· Paula Bennett remains the clear favourite to become National Party leader if a vacancy arises (44%, steady compared with last week), followed by Steven Joyce (12%, steady) and Amy Adams (10%, steady)

· Stocks on who is favoured to become Labour Party leader if a vacancy arises will be launched in the near future

· Kevin Hague remains strongly expected to be the next co-leader of the Green Party (78% probability, down from 79% last week), followed by James Shaw on 21% (steady)

· Judith Collins is not expected to be appointed to Cabinet before next election (43% probability she will be, down from 53% last week)

· Tim Groser is expected to be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States (96% probability, up from 91% last week) and Maureen Pugh is expected to become eligible to be a list MP before the next election (95% probability, steady)

· Phil Goff is expected to stand for the Auckland mayoralty (94% probability, up from 91% last week)

· Next election expected in 2017 (91% probability, down from 92% last week) with a turnout of 75% (steady)

· Forecast party vote shares at next election:

o National 43.8% (steady compared with last week)

o Labour 33.1% (steady)

o Greens 10.8% (steady)

o NZ First 7.5% (up from 7.4%)

o Others 4.8% (steady)

· NZ First has a 68% probability of holding the balance of power after the next election (steady compared with last week). If NZ First does hold the balance of power, there is a 52% probability it will back National on confidence and supply (steady compared with last week), a 32% probability it will back Labour on confidence and supply (steady) and a 16% probability it would sit on the crossbenches (steady)

· National prime minister expected after 2017 General Election (58% probability, up from 54% last week)

· David Carter is expected to be New Zealand’s next High Commissioner to the United Kingdom (79% probability, steady compared with last week) and Gerry Brownlee has a 62% probability of being the next New Zealand Speaker (up from 48%)

· Almost no chance Wellington councils will be amalgamated by end of 2015 (only 5% probability they will be, steady compared with last week)

New Zealand Business & Economics:

· Fruit-fly outbreak expected to be contained with fewer than 20 Queensland fruit-flies expected to be found in New Zealand as part of current outbreak (92% probability, up from 89% last week)

· New Zealand dollar expected to reach parity with Australian dollar by the end of 2015 (82% probability, up from 79% last week), with a 79% probability if will do so before July 2015 (up from 69% last week)

· Quarterly GDP growth expected to be:

o 0.76% in the March quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 0.65% in the June quarter (steady)

o 0.86% in the September quarter (steady)

o 0.85% in the December quarter (steady)

· Annual growth expected to be 3.15% in the 2015 calendar year (steady)

· Unemployment expected to be:

o 5.44% in the March quarter (up from 5.42% last week)

o 5.29% in the June quarter (steady)

o 5.25% in the September quarter (steady)

o 5.37% in the December quarter (up from 5.30%)

· New Zealand pay gaps in 2014/15 expected to be:

o Gender 9.95%

o Maori 12.28%

o Pacific 23.12%

o Asian 20.43%

· Current account deficit expected to be:

o 3.61% of GDP in the March quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 3.56% in the June quarter (steady)

o 3.39% in the September quarter (steady)

o 3.49% in the December quarter (new stocks)

· Annual inflation expected to be:

o 0.33% to end of June 2015 quarter (down from 0.42% last week)

o 0.52% to end of September 2015 quarter (down from 0.61%)

o 0.83% to end of December 2015 quarter (down from 1.04%)

· Stocks on 2016 inflation will be launched in the near future

· Official Cash Rate priced to be:

o 3.495% on 30 April (up from 3.494% last week)

o 3.482% on 11 June (up from 3.481% last week)

o 3.457% on 23 July (up from 3.456%)

o 3.409% on 10 September (up from 3.406%)

o 3.391% on 29 October (up from 3.387%)

o 3.370% on 10 December (up from 3.366%)

o 3.360% on 28 January 2016 (up from 3.356%)

o 3.357% on 10 March 2016 (up from 3.354%)

o 3.347% on 28 April 2016 (up from 3.344%)

o 3.335% on 9 June 2016 (up from 3.331%)

· This implies the OCR is more likely than not to be cut on 10 December 2015 to 3.25% (steady compared with last week) and to remain at that rate until at least 9 June 2016 (steady)

· Stocks on Australian interest rates are now available for trading

· 7% probability of a fiscal surplus in 2014/15 (up from 6% last week)

· Fiscal balance expected to be:

o -0.29% of GDP in 2014/15 (down from -0.28% last week)

o 0.68% of GDP in 2015/16 (down from 0.72%)

o 1.79% of GDP in 2016/17 (down from 1.98%)

o 2.15% of GDP in 2017/18 (down from 2.32%)

· Fonterra’s final payout (before retentions) expected to be:

o $4.67 in 2014/15 (down from $4.71 last week)

o $5.35 in 2015/16 (down from $5.40)

o $6.10 in 2016/17 (down from $6.16)

· Campbell Live expected to be cancelled this year (73% probability, down from 77% last week)

· Stocks on tourism arrivals and gender and ethnic pay gaps are now available for trading

Foreign Affairs/Constitution:

· Next UK Parliament expected to consist of:

o Conservatives 42.6% of seats in the House of Commons (down from 43.0% last week)

o Labour 39.6% of seats (down from 40.3%)

o Nationalist parties 8.0% of seats (up from 7.6%)

o Liberal Democrats 4.0% of seats (down from 4.1%)

o UKIP and similar 3.8% of seats (up from 1.0%)

o Green and similar 1.0% of seats (steady)

o Independents and Speaker 1.0% of seats (steady)

o Unionist parties 0.0% of seats (down from 1.0%)

o All others 0.0% of seats (down from 1.0%)

· David Cameron narrowly expected to be prime minister after next UK election (53% probability, down from 57% last week)

· Boris Johnson expected to be elected to UK House of Commons this year (99% probability, steady compared with last week) and has a 30% probability of being prime minister before 2020

· Socialist Workers’ Party expected to defeat People’s Party in next Spanish election (67% probability, down from 73% last week)

· All Eurozone countries, including Greece, expected to remain in Euro in 2015 (20% probability of an announcement of a departure this year, steady compared with last week)

· Tony Abbott expected to remain leader of the Australian Liberal Party until 1 July 2015 (only 2% probability of departing before then, down from 5% last week) and narrowly expected to be leader of the Australian Liberal Party on nomination day (53% probability, up from 30% last week)

· Bill Shorten expected to be Labor leader at next Australian Federal election (89% probability, steady compared with last week)

· Liberals marginally ahead of Labor for next Australian Federal election in 2016 (53% probability of Liberal win, steady compared with last week)

· Hillary Clinton is favoured to be the Democratic Party’s nominee for US president in 2016 and to be elected to that office (54% probability, up from 52% last week). Jeb Bush has a 40% probability of being the Republican nominee (steady compared with last week) followed by Scott Walker (23% probability, up from 21%) and Rand Paul (15% probability, steady)

· There is a 21% probability New Zealand will sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership this year (down from 35% last week), and the Trans-Pacific Partnership is not expected to be ratified by the US Congress before 1 July 2017 (only 38% probability it will be, up from 29% last week)

· Helen Clark’s prospects of being the next UN Secretary General are 35% (up from 26% last week)

· There is a 10% probability New Zealand will become a republic by 2020 (steady compared with last week)

Notes:

· iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz.

· The weekly economic and political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each week. This week’s was taken at 12.26 pm today.

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Government Declines Request for Commission of Inquiry into Peter Ellis case

By Selwyn Manning -

April 21, 2015

MIL OSI – Source: New Zealand Government – Request for Ellis Commission of Inquiry declined Justice Minister Amy Adams has declined a request from supporters of Peter Ellis for a Commission of Inquiry on the basis that an inquiry cannot be used to determine the liability of any person. [caption id="attachment_3523" align="alignright" width="243"] Peter Ellis.[/caption] Mr Ellis was convicted in 1993 on multiple charges of sexual offending against children. He was sentenced to ten years imprisonment. Since then, his convictions have been the subject of extensive consideration including two appeals, an inquiry by former Chief Justice Sir Thomas Eichelbaum and two overseas experts, and a 2003 petition to Parliament. In 2008, a similar request for a Commission of Inquiry was made to and rejected by former Justice Minister Simon Power. “After careful consideration of the public interest and legal issues, I have decided to decline the request for an inquiry,” says Ms Adams. “The new Inquiries Act 2013 is clear that a Commission of Inquiry is not an appropriate vehicle for inquiring into the correctness of a person’s convictions.” Section 11 of the Inquiries Act expressly states that an inquiry has no power to determine the criminal liability of any person. “Furthermore, the request is almost identical to the one made to former Justice Minister Power, and contains no new evidence. I’m not satisfied there is any new information or development that warrants reconsideration of Mr Power’s decision,” says Ms Adams. Ms Adams said the other contributing factor in her decision was that Mr Ellis had not exhausted the appeal rights available to him through the court system. “There are proper channels for Mr Ellis to challenge his convictions, if he wishes to do so. An application for leave to appeal to the Privy Council was first mentioned by Mr Ellis’s lawyer over a decade ago but has not been pursued. That option remains open, as does a further application for the Royal prerogative of mercy. “Notwithstanding the lengthy history of the case and its numerous reviews, it remains open to Mr Ellis to challenge his convictions through the proper channels, particularly if there is now new and compelling evidence relevant to his convictions that has not previously been considered. That is a matter for Mr Ellis to decide,” says Ms Adams. –]]>

Auckland’s Former Heart of the City Boss Alex Swney pleads guilty to SFO fraud charge

By Selwyn Manning -

April 21, 2015

MIL OSI – Source: New Zealand Serious Fraud Office – Alex Swney pleads guilty to SFO fraud charge [caption id="attachment_3526" align="alignleft" width="300"] Alex Swney.[/caption]Alex Swney, former Chief Executive of Heart of the City, has appeared in the Auckland District Court to answer a charge brought by the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) of dishonestly using documents to obtain $2.5 million. Mr Swney has pleaded guilty to the charge. Mr Swney admitted that while at Heart of the City he created fictitious invoices which when submitted, resulted in payments into accounts controlled by him. SFO Director, Julie Read said, “Mr Swney dishonestly obtained funds to which he knew he was not entitled. The misappropriation of funding intended to benefit Auckland businesses increased the cost of the services provided by Heart of the City and reduced the benefits delivered by what has otherwise been a very successful venture. Fraud of this size by employees who are entrusted with the management and expenditure of substantial sums of money is very costly for both the businesses concerned and more broadly for the community as it harms the integrity of these organisations. In bringing this prosecution the SFO is helping to protect the reputation of New Zealand as safe place in which to do business and invest.”

Mr Swney has been remanded on bail and his next appearance is scheduled for 30 April.

Note:

Background to investigation

Heart of the City Incorporated, an entity funded by property owners and commercial tenants, was established by Mr Swney in 1995. Mr Swney held the position of Chief Executive Officer reporting to the Board until October 2014 when his contract was terminated.

Crimes Act offences

Section 228 Dishonestly taking or using document Every one is liable to imprisonment for a term not exceeding 7 years who, with intent to obtain any property, service, pecuniary advantage, or valuable consideration,- (a) dishonestly and without claim of right, takes or obtains any document; or (b) dishonestly and without claim of right, uses or attempts to use any document.

About the SFO

The Serious Fraud Office (SFO) was established in 1990 under the Serious Fraud Office Act in response to the collapse of financial markets in New Zealand at that time. The SFO’s role is the detection, investigation and prosecution of serious or complex financial crime. The SFO’s focus is on investigating and prosecuting criminal cases that will have a real effect on: • business and investor confidence in our financial markets and economy • public confidence in our justice system and public service • New Zealand’s international business reputation. The SFO operates three operational teams; the Evaluation and Intelligence team along with two investigative teams. The SFO operates under two sets of investigative powers. Part 1 of the SFO Act provides that it may act where the Director “has reason to suspect that an investigation into the affairs of any person may disclose serious or complex fraud.” Part 2 of the SFO Act provides the SFO with more extensive powers where: “…the Director has reasonable grounds to believe that an offence involving serious or complex fraud may have been committed…” In considering whether a matter involves serious or complex fraud, the Director may, among other things, have regard to: • the suspected nature and consequences of the fraud and/or; • the suspected scale of the fraud and/or; • the legal, factual and evidential complexity of the matter and/or; • any relevant public interest considerations. The SFO’s Annual Report 2014 sets out its achievements for the past year, while the Statement of Intent 2014-2018 sets out the SFO’s strategic goals and performance standards. Both are available online at www.sfo.govt.nz –]]>

DOC: Pest wasps cost economy $130 million a year

By Selwyn Manning -

April 21, 2015

MIL OSI – Source: Department of Conservation – Pest wasps cost economy $130 million a year The study, An evaluation of the cost of pest wasps (Vespula species) in New Zealand, by the Sapere Research Group, was jointly funded by the Department of Conservation and the Ministry for Primary Industries. Wasps are one of the most damaging invertebrate pests in New Zealand; they harm our native birds and insects and compete for food with our native species. If you put together all the wasps in honeydew beech forests they would weigh more than the weight of birds, rodents and stoats combined. Wasps taking beech honeydew, Pelorus Bridge Reserve, Marlborough This new study has found that wasps also have a major financial impact on primary industries and the health sector. This includes:

More than $60 million a year in costs to pastoral farming from wasps disrupting bee pollination activities, reducing the amount of clover in pastures and increasing fertiliser costs.
Almost $9 million a year cost to beekeepers from wasps attacking honey bees, robbing their honey and destroying hives.
Wasp-related traffic accidents estimated to cost $1.4 million a year.
Over $1 million each year spent on health costs from wasp stings.
On top of the direct costs, almost $60 million a year is lost in unrealised honey production from beech forest honeydew which is currently being monopolised by wasps. Honeydew is also a valuable energy source for kaka, tui and bellbirds.

DOC Scientist Eric Edwards says these numbers are conservative. The actual cost of wasps is much higher especially if you take into account the impact on tourism and our love of the outdoors, which this study wasn’t able to measure in full. “It’s hard to put a dollar value on people’s attitudes to wasps and to what extent wasps prevent them from visiting conservation land or taking part in outdoor tourism activities,” he says. “But we know that wasps are a massive annoyance and their multiple stings can cause a lifetime effect of making young people reluctant to return to forests and parks,” Eric Edwards says. The Ministry for Primary Industries Dr Erik van Eyndhoven says that reducing wasp abundance would produce major flow on benefits to pastoral farming and horticulture through increased bee pollination services. “This study shows that it makes economic sense, as well as environmental sense, to invest in research to control wasps,” he says. “MPI is working with DOC to encourage the science community, and their funders, to further explore a range of tools needed to control wasps in the long term,” Erik van Eyndhoven says. The MPI Sustainable Farming Fund has recently supported investigations into the biocontrol potential of a new mite discovered in wasp nests. DOC has been actively working on a programme to better control wasps and has been piloting a targeted bait station method on conservation land. –]]>

NewsRoom Digest: Top NZ News Items for April 21, 2015

By Selwyn Manning -

April 21, 2015

This edition of NewsRoom_Digest contains 7 media release snippets and 4 links of the day from Tuesday 21st April.

Top stories in the news cycle include the Government announcing Christchurch residents will have their say on renewed buyout offers to some red-zoned home owners, the sacked head of Auckland’s Heart of the City promotion agency pleading guilty to new fraud charge, and the Government is accused of reneging on its promise of free doctors’ visits for under 13 year-olds.

SNIPPETS OF THE DAY

Defence Force Contingent Depart For Australia: The main body of the New Zealand Defence Force training contingent bound for Iraq departed for Australia today from Royal New Zealand Air Force Base Ohakea. The contingent was farewelled by the Governor General Sir Jerry Mateparae, Commander Joint Forces New Zealand, Major General Tim Gall, and the Chief of Army, Major General Dave Gawn. Consistent with the requirement to keep New Zealand personnel safe, the departure of the main body was not publicly advised in advance, and the NZDF will not be supplying details in advance of the onward deployment of the main body to the Middle East from Australia.

Green Party: Government Breaks Pledge: The Government has already broken a key election promise by reneging on a pledge to make all doctors’ visits for under 13 year olds free, the Green Party says. Documents obtained by the Green Party show that the Government decided to fund only 90 percent of doctors’ visits for children suffering from an injury in an attempt trim the cost of the so-called “free” visits. “This makes a lie of the promise to provide free doctors’ visits for all children under 13,” Green Party Health and ACC spokesperson Kevin Hague said.

Kiwi Dollar Moves Close To Aussie: The New Zealand dollar gained against the Aussie after Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens raised the prospect of an interest rate cut as early as next month to bolster a weak economy. The kiwi touched 99.27 Australian cents overnight, and was trading at 99.08 cents at 8am in Wellington, from 98.69 cents at 5pm yesterday. The local currency slipped to 76.54 US cents from 77.01 cents yesterday.

Quick Rise And Fall Of Petrol Prices: Rising global prices for crude oil and a 4 cents per litre increase in petrol prices this week saw Z Energy release updated research today from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research showing petrol prices react to international price changes within a fortnight and fall as quickly as they rise. In a report titled “Petrol prices (still) rise and fall at the same speed”, NZIER says the main change it has noted since about 2010 is that international oil price changes are passed through mostly within the following one or two weeks, rather than taking three or four weeks to filter through to the motorist at the petrol pump.

Red Zone Crown Offers: Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee has announced a process to give everyone a say on the Crown offers to owners of vacant, commercial/industrial and uninsured properties in the Residential Red Zone. “I have asked the chief executive of the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (CERA) to prepare a Recovery Plan that looks at the offers to property owners in these categories,” Mr Brownlee says. “Following a legal challenge by the Quake Outcasts group, the Supreme Court directed that the decision on the offer to properties in these categories should be revisited and that a Recovery Plan was an appropriate approach.”

Dreamline To Take More Kiwi’s To Fiji: Air New Zealand has announced it will introduce the Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner on the Auckland – Nadi route this summer (November – March) adding 8,000 more seats to the route than last year. When Air New Zealand’s revolutionary new Boeing 787-9 lands at Nadi International Airport on 27 November 2015 it will be the first time this aircraft has operated to the Pacific Islands.

NZ/CHINA Research Projects: Science and Innovation Minister Steven Joyce has opened the fourth New Zealand/China Joint Commission Meeting on Science and Technology Co-operation in Wellington by announcing three new joint research projects between the two countries. Sixty delegates have travelled to Wellington for the meeting, which is held every three years and is hosted alternately by New Zealand and China. Each New Zealand team will receive government funding of $300,000 over three years, with the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology providing equivalent funding for its researchers.

LINKS OF THE DAY

TOBACCO CONTROL PROTOCOL: Public feedback is being sought on whether New Zealand should sign up to an international agreement aimed at getting rid of the illicit trade in tobacco products. “These illegal products are usually cheaper than legal tobacco, which is taxed. Smokers buying illicit products may be less inclined to quit and non-smokers may be more likely to take up smoking.The illicit trade in tobacco products results in lost government revenue through tax evasion, and can be used to fund other criminal activity,” Associate Health Minister Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga says. The consultation document is available on the Ministry of Health’s website:https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/preventative-health-wellness/tobacco-control/who-framework-convention-tobacco-control/illicit-trade-protocol

HISTORY OF VICTORIAN FEMALE BODY AND “TROPHY WIFES”: You might think that trophy wives are a modern phenomenon, but according to research from the University of Auckland, the idea of women being treated as their husbands’ status symbols is not that different from past generations. For her PhD in English Literature, Dr Kirby-Jane Hallum studied the late Victorian marriage market, whereby families sought to arrange financially and socially advantageous marital unions between their sons and daughters. She discovered that although the valuing of women according to their beauty dates back for centuries, the arrival of the Aesthetic Movement in the second half of the nineteenth century generated new standards for female beauty. The Art of Female Beauty is available to purchase as an e-book or hardback directly from the publisher’s website: www.pickeringchatto.com/marriagemarket

BILATERAL ARBITRATION TREATY: A proposed bilateral arbitration treaty and the 30th anniversary of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior will be the focus of a visit from world leading international arbitrator and litigator Gary Born next month. Mr Born has been awarded the New Zealand Centre of International Economic Law’s (NZCIEL) Inaugural Senior Visiting Research Fellowship for 2015 and will visit New Zealand from 1 to 9 May While in New Zealand, Mr Born will discuss his recent initiative—a Bilateral Arbitration Treaty regime—with government representatives and businesses. More information on Gary Born’s visit and his Bilateral Arbitration Treaty regime is available at http://www.victoria.ac.nz/law/centres/nzciel/news

NETHUI LAUNCHED: InternetNZ is pleased to announce the launch of the NetHui 2015 website, formally announcing NetHui 2015. InternetNZ Chief Executive Jordan Carter is looking forward to hearing the New Zealand Internet community’s ideas for this year’s event. “NetHui is New Zealand’s premier Internet event. This year the theme is “the Internet is everybody’s business” and we’ve already locked in some cool speakers. People who are keen to help shape the Internet are encouraged to visit www.nethui.nz and get involved.

And that’s our sampling of the day that was on Tuesday 21st April 2015.

Brought to EveningReport by Newsroom Digest. –]]>

US-led Coalition Air-Strikes Target ISIS in Ramadi and Beiji

By Selwyn Manning -

April 21, 2015

MIL OSI – Source: United States Department of Defense – Coalition Strikes Target ISIL in Ramadi, Beiji By Cheryl Pellerin DoD News, Defense Media Activity WASHINGTON, April 20, 2015 The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant’s tentacles are spreading beyond Iraq and Syria to Afghanistan and Libya, but the pressure of coalition air and ground power has weakened the terrorist group, a Defense Department official said here today. The focus on ISIL is to fight them now in Iraq and Syria, Pentagon spokesman Army Col. Steve Warren told reporters. But he also discussed the increasing danger posed by ISIL in Afghanistan and Libya, and coalition and ground-force efforts against ISIL fighters in the Iraqi cities of Ramadi and Beiji. “Ramadi remains highly contested — it’s a tough fight there right now,” said Warren, adding that Iraqi security forces continue to hold there but are under pressure from ISIL fighters in the area. Operation Inherent Resolve In coalition military airstrikes against ISIL near Ramadi, the Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve reported that five airstrikes hit three ISIL tactical units, one large and two small. The attacks destroyed an ISIL fighting position and an ISIL armored vehicle, the task force said. “We’re hopeful,” Warren said, “that coalition airpower along with the resolve of the Iraqi ground forces will be able to hold.” The city of Beiji, a major industrial center with the largest oil refinery in Iraq, is under ISIL control but the refinery is secure, the colonel said. “In Beiji, [Iraqi forces] successfully linked up with forces on the ground in the refinery and … have thus far been able to secure the refinery,” Warren said. He added, “We are dedicating some air power to that fight and it remains a contested situation.” Coalition Air Power In coalition strikes reported by the task force today, eight airstrikes near Beiji hit four ISIL tactical units, destroying two ISIL vehicle bombs, an ISIL machine gun, an ISIL artillery piece, an ISIL ammo storage facility and an ISIL vehicle. In Afghanistan, where the spring fighting season has begun, Warren said the department is concerned about and is watching for the potential emergence of ISIL there. “We don’t necessarily believe that conditions in Afghanistan are such that ISIL would be welcome,” he said. “In fact, the Afghan government has been very clear that ISIL is certainly not welcome [and] it’s interesting to note that apparently even the Taliban has indicated that they don’t welcome an ISIL presence in Afghanistan,” Warren added. Rebranding as ISIL Still, he said, disaffected members of the Taliban and other terrorist groups have been rebranding themselves as ISIL, most likely to achieve greater notoriety or to gain access to more resources. “We don’t see this yet as a cause of increased violence in Afghanistan,” he said, “but it is certainly something we’re going to continue to watch.” In Libya, the department is beginning to see what Warren characterized as “more than a rebranding effort.” He added, “I think Libya is probably where ISIL most wants to gain a foothold. At this point they have gained at least a toehold in Libya based on an extraordinary amount of unrest [there] and an almost completely deteriorated security situation.” Significant Blows to ISIL ISIL has made its own aspirations very well known, Warren said, and a clear uptick in violence attributed to ISIL or claimed by ISIL in Libya are causes of concern for the department. But, he said, coalition efforts continue to inflict significant blows to ISIL. “Nearly every one of the press releases that we issue every day indicates damage to tactical units –- that’s fighters being killed. So I would submit to you that we’ve delivered several punishing blows to ISIL over the last six months,” Warren said. “We’ve started to see cracks in ISIL’s ability to bring on new forces. ISIL is turning now to conscription, to forcing people into their armed forces and in some cases to [using] child soldiers,” he added, “so the pressure that the combination of air and ground power we’re applying to ISIL is having an effect.” (Follow Cheryl Pellerin on Twitter: @PellerinDoDNews) –]]>

Security Council deeply concerned about humanitarian situation for refugees in Syria’s Yarmouk camp

By Selwyn Manning -

April 21, 2015

MIL OSI – Source: United Nations – Security Council ‘deeply concerned’ about humanitarian situation for refugees in Yarmouk camp The United Nations Security Council has today expressed deep concern about the grave humanitarian situation in Yarmouk refugee camp, located on the outskirts of the Syrian capital, Damascus. In a press statement issued after being briefed by Pierre Krähenbühl, Commissioner General of the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), Council members welcomed recent efforts by UNRWA and Secretary-General’s Deputy Special Envoy, Ramzy Ramzy, and called for unhindered humanitarian access to Yarmouk and for the protection of civilians inside the camp. They stressed the need to support the emergency relief effort for civilians in Yarmouk including through funding the $30 million emergency appeal and to provide diplomatic and political support for the agency. Supporting UN efforts to assist trapped Palestinian refugees in Yarmouk, the Council highlighted a three-point plan including assistance for civilians in the camp, assisting those wanting to ‘temporarily relocate’ from the camp in accordance with international humanitarian law, and assisting residents who have already fled. The Council called for support of the UN framework in line with legal obligations, and condemned all acts of terrorism, demanding that Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and Al-Nusra Front withdraw from Yarmouk immediately. In addition, members called on all parties to immediately implement the relevant Security Council resolutions including Security Council resolutions 2139, 2165 and 2191, all adopted last year. Mr. Krähenbühl, who briefed the Council from Jerusalem via video link, spoke to journalists at UN Headquarters afterwards, updating them on the briefing and on recent happenings in Yarmouk. Having recently returned from a four-day humanitarian mission to Damascus, he said that he told the Council about the situation inside Yarmouk and his concerns about the security, safety and levels of protection of civilians in the camp. While he acknowledged that the humanitarian situation remains “very extreme” in terms of the circumstances and hardships faced, he pointed to “concrete achievements” coming from discussions with the Government about possibly widening the scope of humanitarian access. Many people had described the terrible impact of the situation they faced in the last two years, he said. Several thousand people remain in Yarmouk and he said he was determined to establish distribution points to allow them to access humanitarian aid, and to enhance distribution of assistance to those who had managed to escape to nearby neighbourhoods. Describing some of the assistance that UNRWA was distributing, he underscored the need for ongoing financial assistance. A total of $30 million was needed for immediate emergency aid in addition to over $400 million requested for the overall Syria Appeal, which had received only 19 per cent funding. Mr. Krähenbühl stressed that the Council should remain seized of the matter and said a visit by members to Syria would be a strong signal of the importance that it attaches to the situation. –]]>

NewsRoom Digest: Top NZ News Items for April 20, 2015

By Selwyn Manning -

April 20, 2015

This edition of NewsRoom_Digest contains 6 media release snippets and 6 links of the day from Monday 20th April.

Top stories in the news cycle include Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott visiting New Zealand ahead of the Anzac Centenary, China’s consul-general in Auckland expressing concern over claims that spy agencies in New Zealand and the United States have plotted to spy on the Chinese Consulate, and the Prime Minister saying at least two families in New Zealand have contacted police concerned about the radicalization of their children by extremists.

SNIPPETS OF THE DAY

Extension of NZDF commitment in Afghanistan: The New Zealand Defence Force’s commitment of mentors and support staff to the Afghan National Army Officer Academy in Afghanistan has been extended out to December 2016, Defence Minister Gerry Brownlee said today.

CTU Calls On RBNZ To Cut CPI:“With prices rises at just 0.1 percent over the last year, the Reserve Bank must reduce its Official Cash Rate next week. It is well past time it did so,” says CTU Economist Bill Rosenberg. “A housing price bubble is forming in Auckland – but only Auckland. That cannot be dealt with the interest rate that the Reserve Bank controls. It needs to find other tools such as stopping property investors from further inflating prices. The Government is also failing in its responsibility to treat the situation with urgency by attacking land banking and building affordable good quality houses itself, either for rent or resale,” Rosenberg said.

Labour: Key’s Housing Comments ‘Bizzare” Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford has described the Prime Minister’s latest comments on the Auckland housing crisis as bizarre. “John Key is deep in denial. He must be one of the only people left who are not concerned about the risk of the market going bust and causing immense human and economic damage. “When the Reserve Bank is insisting on new solutions to cracking down on speculators it is time the Prime Minister wasn’t quite so relaxed about Auckland’s housing crisis,” Phil Twyford says.

Team NZ Funding Decision Welcomed: Responding to the reported comments of the Prime Minister, that taxpayer-funding of Team New Zealand was “at the end of the road”, Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director, Jordan Williams, says: “Taxpayers have already stumped up significant amounts of money in order to support what is a rich sport. The return to taxpayers of propping up a team to go and sail on the other side of the world was always questionable.”

Māori Affairs Minister Urged To Stop Holmes Farm Sale: New Zealand First wants the Minister for Māori Development to seek an injunction against the Māori Education Trust to block the sale of the former Holmes Farm – Mapuna Atea.

REINZ All Farm Price Index: Data released today by the Real Estate Institute of NZ (“REINZ”) shows there were 425 farm sales in the three months to end of March 2015, compared to 464 farm sales for the three months ended February 2015 (-8.4%) and 472 farm sales for the three months to the end of March 2014. 1,802 farms were sold in the year to February 2015, 2.2% fewer than were sold in the year to March 2014.

LINKS OF THE DAY

COMMUNIQUE ON FOSSIL FUELS: New Zealand, along with Costa Rica, Denmark, Ethiopia, Finland, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland endorsed a statement over the weekend to be delivered to the Paris conference that supports the elimination of inefficient subsidies to fossil fuels on environmental, economic and social grounds. For the full text of the communique see: http://www.iisd.org/publications/fossil-fuel-subsidy-reform-communique

COMMEMORATIVE ANZAC COINS: More than three quarters of the coloured circulating commemorative coins minted to mark the Anzac centenary have been taken up by the public.The Reserve Bank minted one million of the special 50 cent Anzac coins to commemorate the centenary, on 25 April 1915, of the Anzac landings on the Gallipoli Peninsula. The coins are available at PostShop and Kiwibank branches nationwide, and online at NZ Post’s website here: https://coins.nzpost.co.nz/new-zealand/2015/1915-spirit-anzac?utm_source=AnzacCoin&utm_medium=RBNZwebpage&utm_campaign=AnzacCoin

MINISTER ADDRESSES GEOTHERMAL CONGRESS: Energy and Resources Minister Simon Bridges will be promoting New Zealand’s world-leading renewable energy expertise at an international conference in Melbourne this week .Along with Australia, New Zealand is co-hosting the 2015 World Geothermal Congress where Mr Bridges will deliver the keynote address.For more information, visit here: http://wgc2015.com.au

DISABILITY SUPPORT SERVICES DATA RELEASED: Demographic information about the disabled people allocated the majority of disability support services funded by the Ministry of Health’s Disability Support Services (DSS) – that is: home and community support, carer support, community residential, supported living and respite – was released on Friday. Read the report here: http://www.health.govt.nz/publication/demographic-information-clients-using-ministry-healths-disability-support-services

CPI FALLS IN MARCH QUARTER: The consumers price index (CPI) fell 0.3 percent in the March 2015 quarter, following a 0.2 percent fall in the December 2014 quarter, Statistics New Zealand said today. The last time the CPI showed two consecutive quarterly falls was in the December 1998 and March 1999 quarters. Visit Consumers Price Index: March 2015 quarter: http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/economic_indicators/CPI_inflation/ConsumersPriceIndex_MRMar15qtr.aspx

DRAFT CODE FOR VICTIMS’ RIGHTS: Justice Minister Amy Adams says a new draft Victims Code of Rights will help to ensure victims are better informed and put them at the heart of the justice system. The draft code outlines victims’ rights, the services available to victims and their families from government agencies and other organisations, and the obligations of justice sector agencies when dealing with victims. Both the draft code and questionnaire can be found on www.justice.govt.nz/publications/global-publications/v/draft-victims-code-for-consultation.

And that’s our sampling of the day that was on Monday 20th April 2015.

Brought to EveningReport by Newsroom Digest. –]]>

AUDIO: PMW’S Alistar Kata talks Pacific Forum issues with 95bFM

By Selwyn Manning -

April 20, 2015

Evening Report

AUDIO: PMW'S Alistar Kata talks Pacific Forum issues with 95bFM

00:00 /

MIL OSI Analysis – Pacific Media Watch/Pacific Media Centre.

PMW’s Alistar Kata has revived the Southern Cross programme on Radio 95bFM.

Monday, April 20, 2015

Item: 9227

AUCKLAND (Pacific Media Watch): Host of 95bFM’s Southern Cross programme Nick Bond talked to Pacific Media Watch’s Alistar Kata today about whether New Zealand and Australia should remain in the Pacific Islands Forum. The Forum has lifted its suspension of Fiji, but Fiji Prime Minister Voreqe Bainimarama does not want to rejoin the forum while Australia and New Zealand are still members. Kata said Bainimarama wants the key decisions that come from the Forum to be made by Pacific Island leaders themselves. “He thinks that Australia and New Zealand have too much influence and control over the decisions the Forum makes,” she said. “Where Bainimarama is coming from is that he wants the responsibility of those big decisions that come out of the Forum to be made by the Pacific leaders themselves, and no longer donor countries or donor institutions.” Kata said although she understood what Bainimarama was trying to say, there was a “reason” why more developed countries were involved in the Forum. “In a way I understand where he is coming from, but at the same time you can’t have a Pacific Forum without Australia or New Zealand.” New Zealand Prime Minister John Key’s response to Bainimarama’s claims was that without Australia and New Zealand, the Forum would not have the money to keep it running. Today was the second broadcast in a return of the Southern Cross programme on 95bFM http://www.95bfm.com/assets/sm/220885/3/SouthernCross20Apr2015.mp3 Listen to Alistar Kata’s comments Last week’s new Southern Cross programme

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 New Zealand Licence.

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Who calls the shots? Acne & Isotretinoin II – Big Pharma & research

By Selwyn Manning -

April 20, 2015

Evening Report

Who calls the shots? Acne & Isotretinoin II - Big Pharma & research

00:00 /

Investigation by Carolyn Skelton. [Part I. Part II.] The bigger picture In the first part of this series, I outlined issues related to acne and to the powerful drug Isotretinoin and the devastating consequences for some users. In today’s appearance-focused world acne can be pretty depressing and confidence-sapping for many young people. At its most extreme it can lead to brutal bullying and/or suicidal thoughts. The powerful drug isotretinoin can seem to be a magical cure for acne. However, after starting the medicine, some have experienced extremely negative psychological disturbances.. Professor J Douglas Bremner tells of one father’s story about his son taking Accutane. The young man

told the family that the deceased rocker Jim Morrison was talking to him through monkeys and telling him to commit suicide On April 15, 2004…. After he stopped taking Accutane his psychosis and suicidal thinking stopped, and he continues to be free of symptoms to this day.

(Before You Take That Pill, 2008: p49)

The story of this drug provides insights into the processes of the research and marketing of powerful prescription medicines. The drug companies have a lot of influence over the kinds of research conducted, with the aim of producing financially profitable “cures”. Some governments are being criticised for increasingly prioritising such commercial imperatives over people’s health and well-being. The isotretinoin story: birth defects Isotretinoin was first developed by Dr Werner Bollag for possible use in cancer chemotherapy. It was found to effectively clear severe acne. Bollag dissociated himself from the use of the drug to treat acne. He allegedly said that,

deploying such a toxic substance for such a trivial matter would be like using a thermonuclear warhead to demolish a garden shed.

As reported by Julia Green at Harvard Law School in 2002, the Swiss company Roche rushed to make it available in 1982, using the brand name Accutane. Very soon people began to claim some very horrific side effects, most particularly being associated with birth defects in the babies of a large percentage of US women who were pregnant when they took Accutane. Green puts some of the blame down to Roche’s rush to market the drug because of its potential for profits, while also suppressing the results of some of their own research. There were also later concerns that Roche was promoting Accutane for moderate acne, and not using it as a last resort medication. Following publicity for of the birth defects in the US, strong warnings were put on the medicine cautioning that it should not be taken by pregnant women, or if it is used by sexually active heterosexual women they should use two different forms of contraception. Roche has had thousands of law suits against them, resulting in Accutane being withdrawn from the US market. Other drug companies now supply the US, while Roche continues to sell the drug in the UK and Europe under the name RoAccutane. Isotretinoin and adverse psychiatric reactions [caption id="attachment_3453" align="alignleft" width="300"]

From mercola.com[/caption] With the decrease in cases of birth defects in the US, and the low number of such cases in the more strongly regulated European context, the controversy shifted to focus on associations between isotretinoin and psychological disturbances, depression and suicidal thoughts. Statistics show that a minority of users experience negative side effects, but there may be significant under-reporting of such incidents. The side effects usually occur up to a few months after starting to use the medication. Consequently, many people probably don’t make the connection. Last November, the UK government drug monitoring agency published the results of their latest review of isotretinoin and adverse psychiatric reactions. Their conclusions were in keeping with previous arguments that there is no proof of such side effects. It is argued that such reactions can be caused by acne itself. However, they also state there is no absolute proof that it doesn’t have such effects. Consequently they call for education and information for users. They also state that the “Group” that considered the available research concluded that such studies had limitations, and further research was needed. They expressed concern that

standard epidemiological studies were unlikely to provide sufficient data to establish a causal association

Epidemiological studies look for patterns in selected populations of the causes and impacts of health issues and diseases. The UK report does not mention some earlier research done in the US by professor of psychiatry, J Douglas Bremner. It was funded by Liam Grant, the parent of a young man who had suicided following taking Accutane. Bremner did PET scans of brains of isotretinoin and non-isotretinoin users, as reported in his book, Before You take That Pill (link above). His findings showed that Accutane resulted in the decrease in functioning of the orbitofrontal cortex, “identical to what we found in patients who developed depression.” (p47-9) In other research funded by Grant, it was shown that

Accutane inhibited the growth of neurons in an area of the brain called the hippocampus, which is involved with memory and emotion. This area is smaller in patients with depression. Other studies showed that Accutane caused behavior abnormalities in animals.

Roche remained committed to the view there was no “causal relationship”, even though one of their senior staff members acknowledged their research showed Accutane “‘probably caused” depression and other psychiatric ailments in some users ….” (p49) The neurological line of research has not been continued. Bremner met with intense opposition from Roche. A review of Bremner’s later book, The Goose that Laid the Golden Egg, explains that Bremner was put under intense pressure by Roche’s defense lawyers. Roche was also implicated in encouraging the ethics charges brought against Bremner at the university where he worked.

…Bremner’s life slipped out of control as one of the world’s richest corporations did everything they could to publicly discredit him.

It is astounding that more than a decade after Bremner’s books, the research has not gone beyond the epidemiological focus to look more intensely and directly at the impact of isotretinoin on brain functioning. Many now look to the US Ipledge system as a way of regulating the use of isotretinoin. It outlines some of the negative associations, though unproven, after taking Isotretinnoin. Prescribers, pharmacists, wholesalers and users of isotretinoin must all be registered. The bigger picture: scientific research and NZ There are also concerns in NZ, that scientific research in general is being skewed by powerful organisations. On 10th April, 2015, on RNZ Dr Nicola Gaston, President of the Association of Scientists reported that a recent survey shows scientists reported they were being gagged, their integrity questioned or their results tampered with. A climate of fear, including in universities, was resulting in scientists self-censoring the kinds of research they conducted. Gaston stated that funders can choose sympathetic authors and have unfavourable ones removed from reports. She talked of studies very often being commercially directed or funded. Furthermore, government funding was often on subject matter where a group has a commercial relationship. http://podcast.radionz.co.nz/ntn/ntn-20150410-0932-scientists_speak_out_about_fears_of_attacks_on_freedom-048.mp3 In the next part, I will look at the isotretinoin situation in NZ. –]]>

ISIS Issue: Harmeet Sooden asks all NZ MPs to back a humanitarian response rather than a military operation

By Selwyn Manning -

April 20, 2015

Open Letter to Members of Parliament from Harmeet Sooden regarding the NZDF Deployment to Iraq Monday, 20 April 2015 Dear Members of Parliament, [caption id="attachment_481" align="alignright" width="300"] Peace activist, Harmeet Sooden.[/caption] I write to you as a citizen of New Zealand seeking your assistance. I will be undertaking an assignment in Iraq with an international NGO, Christian Peacemaker Teams (CPT). CPT is supporting local and international organisations that are responding to the humanitarian crisis in Iraqi Kurdistan, arising from the large influx of internally displaced persons and Syrian refugees fleeing the current fighting in Iraq and Syria. Like many New Zealanders, I am deeply concerned about the New Zealand Government’s decision to deploy the NZDF to Iraq as part of the US-led coalition fighting ISIS. Many of the major contributors to the coalition have poor human rights records, some having been implicated in serious human rights violations in Iraq that may constitute war crimes. Their actions are increasing the level of violence in the region and worsening the humanitarian crisis. Aid agencies warn the coalition strategy to retake ISIS-held population centres could greatly worsen the humanitarian crisis. The UN World Food Programme, for example, estimates “[a]s many as one million people could flee Mosul in northern Iraq if the Iraqi army, backed by US air strikes, seeks to recapture the city later this year”. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), too, has “issued a statement warning of a mass flight from Mosul”, and the World Health Organisation believes “an attempt to recapture Mosul could lead to hundreds of thousands seeking refuge in Kurdistan”. The ICRC has stated that US-led “air strikes in Iraq and Syria have compounded the humanitarian consequences of the conflicts in both countries.” According to the organisation Iraq Body Count (IBC), “[t]he rise of [ISIS] as a major force in the conflict, as well as the military responses by the Iraqi Government and the re-entry of US and Coalition air forces into the conflict, have all contributed to the elevated death tolls” in Iraq for the year 2014. Human rights organisations continue to accuse the Iraqi Government and government-backed militias of committing war crimes and exacerbating sectarian tensions. Human Rights Watch (HRW) has documented Iraqi security forces and militias engaging in repeated abuses against civilians and ethnic cleansing in areas reclaimed from ISIS. For example, HRW has gathered evidence of “[m]ilitias, volunteer fighters, and Iraqi security forces engaged in deliberate destruction of civilian property after these forces, following US and Iraqi air strikes, forced the retreat of [ISIS] from the town of Amerli and surrounding areas in early September 2014”. HRW has also reviewed “graphic evidence of Iraqi government forces committing torture, summarily executing civilians – including children – and even beheading captives.” There are credible media reports of “some Iraqi troops…replying in kind [to ISIS’s atrocities], carrying out extra-judicial executions, torture and humiliations of their enemy and posting images of the results online”. Amnesty International has documented cases of “torture and deaths in custody of Iraqi Government forces” and abuses against civilians such as “abductions and unlawful killings…all over the country” by “militias, often armed and backed by the government of Iraq, [that] operate with varying degrees of cooperation from government forces – ranging from tacit consent to coordinated, or even joint, operations.” Iraqi forces have also reportedly established ‘killing zones’ around Baghdad. The UN has also reported violations against civilians committed by the Iraqi Security Force and affiliated militias, including “extrajudicial killings, and at times [carrying] out military operations without due respect for the principles of proportionality, distinction and the obligation to take all necessary precautions to protect civilians from the effects of violence, which may also amount to war crimes.” According to the UN Assistance Mission to Iraq (UNAMI), “children are also increasingly being recruited by militias from all sides, including those supported by the [Iraqi] Government”. A number of NZDF military trainers have been assigned to work in partnership with Australian forces to train the Iraqi Security Force in Camp Taji. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Australian Special Forces are providing “training and assistance” to the Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service (CTS), a CIA-supported “elite Iraqi security force accused of killing prisoners and other human rights violations,” including “torturing detainees with impunity” at a secret detention facility in Baghdad, and being “responsible for major war crimes and unnecessary civilian casualties”. Furthermore, evidence has now come to light that suggests an Australian SAS squadron “was an ‘integral’ element of the potentially illegal detention of prisoners of war at a secret Iraqi desert prison [called H1] in 2003” and “may have been complicit in war crimes by handing detainees over to the so-called ‘black site’”. Under such circumstances, New Zealand’s actions, including military training, could aggravate the plight of Iraqi civilians in the conflict areas, and undermine the work of humanitarian and human rights organisations. I respectfully request you take all possible measures in your official capacity to persuade the New Zealand Government to:

Ensure that New Zealand refrains from supporting or participating in military operations that are degrading the security and humanitarian situation in Iraq, resulting in gross human rights violations against civilians, and compromising the work and safety of humanitarian aid workers and human rights defenders, some of whom are New Zealanders.
Increase New Zealand’s humanitarian aid contributions in order to address the severe shortfall of funding – another factor leading to the worsening of the humanitarian crisis – which, according to UN agencies, could “be catastrophic for hundreds of thousands of men, women and children across Iraq.”

I thank you in advance for your consideration of my request. Yours faithfully, Harmeet Singh Sooden Christian Peacemaker Teams — See Also: Opinion: In Whose Interest? New Zealand’s Policy towards Iraq.]]>

REGION: Private contractor backs bill allowing use of force in detention centres

By Selwyn Manning -

April 20, 2015

MIL OSI Analysis –

Refugees on Nauru protesting at Anibare camp. Image: Refugee Action Coalition

Monday, April 20, 2015

Item: 9226

Mary Baines WELLINGTON (Radio New Zealand International/ Pacific Media Watch): A contractor, International Health and Medical Services (IHMS), says it supports an Australian Bill that would allow its staff to use force against detainees in immigration centres. But the Human Rights Law Centre in Australia has condemned the proposed increased powers to use force with fewer checks and balances. The Australian government is seeking to make immigration officers largely immune from liability for using force on detainees, if it is believed necessary to protect others in detention or maintain good order. There have been repeated violent incidents at Canberra’s camps in Nauru and Papua New Guinea. Mary Baines reported:

“In its submission to changes on the Migration Act, IHMS, which has 260 staff at Australian-run detention centres, says it has seen an increase in violent and aggressive behaviour. “It says that includes the damaging of furniture, walls and doors, throwing objects, and some isolated incidents of inappropriate touching and physical aggression. “It says there has been a small number of serious attempts to harm IHMS staff in which individuals have had to be physically restrained by security staff. “It says given the serious repercussions should security personel not have the capability to restrain an individual who is harming themselves or another person, IHMS supports the Bill.”

Former judge ‘horrified’ In an earlier article, Radio New Zealand International reported a former Supreme Court judge in Australia had said proposed new powers for security guards at immigration detention centres would allow them to beat asylum seekers to death with impunity. In his submission to changes on Australia’s Migration Act, Stephen Charles said he was horrified at the systematic abuse the Bill will allow to be inflicted on vulnerable people. Charles said the law would allow an officer to act in a way that would cause grievous bodily harm without criminal charge if it was believed the force was used “in good faith”, or if it was “reasonably believed” it was necessary. He said that was a subjective standard, and would allow for excessive force to be used in almost any circumstance. Charles said the amendments would make it harder to bring legal action against a guard who inflicted harm, and might even encourage it. ‘Recipe for trouble’ Radio New Zealand International also reported that the Human Rights Law Centre in Australia said the bill was a ‘recipe for trouble’. The HRLC’s director of legal advocacy, Daniel Webb, had raised concern about increasing powers to use force while decreasing checks and balances on the exercise of those powers. He said Australia was the only country in the world that subjected asylum seekers to mandatory and indefinite detention as a first resort and the average length of time people were spending in immigration centres was now more than 400 days. Webb said instead of creating excessive and unchecked powers to supress unrest, its root causes should be addressed – the amount of time innocent people were being locked in limbo. The bill is the subject of a Senate inquiry that is due to report next month.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 New Zealand Licence.

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Opinion: In Whose Interest? New Zealand’s Policy towards Iraq

By Selwyn Manning -

April 20, 2015

Opinion piece by Harmeet Sooden.

[caption id="attachment_481" align="alignright" width="300"]

Peace activist, Harmeet Sooden.[/caption] WITH ITS DECISION TO DEPLOY the NZDF to Iraq, the Government has bolstered New Zealand’s contributions to the US-led coalition fighting ISIS. The Government, however, has yet to provide an adequate explanation of how an NZDF intervention of any kind would be beneficial for the people of Iraq as a whole. Policy documents suggest the Government’s rationale for the deployment derives mainly from NZ’s national security interests, not necessarily what is in the best interests of the people of Iraq and Syria, or even NZers. NZ has a long history of military involvement in the Middle East, a region of global strategic importance. NZ’s policy towards the Middle East is primarily focused on the “stability of the region”, in other words the security of NZ’s “significant economic and trading interests in the region and access to energy supplies and petrochemicals at affordable prices”. NZ has wider foreign policy goals of securing the global economic and political order, upon which the West relies. Thus, it also seeks to strengthen its “international linkages…with like-minded states” and maintain its “security credentials”. NZ’s international partnerships “amplify New Zealand’s reach and influence”, but “also bring with them expectations [of] being willing to play [a] part to advance shared security objectives.” Accordingly, NZ and “like-minded states” are unwilling to see an independent force develop in the Middle East that has regional influence and control over substantial oil reserves. As ISIS largely operates outside the purview of the US-managed global system, its very existence is inimical to the national security interests of NZ and “like-minded states”. Discretionary contributions to international military operations are a “longstanding and…fundamental element of…foreign policy” that NZ employs to maintain and enhance its national security interests. From an NZ perspective, “[t]he success of most major international military coalitions…depend on US involvement”, because the US is the world’s foremost military and economic power. The Government would likely have assessed the overall parameters of the US-led coalition as being suited to mitigating the threat ISIS poses to NZ’s national security interests, and ensuring suitably “like-minded” regimes emerge in the region. The Government would have determined that NZ could best pursue its national security interests by making a contribution, including limited military support. US policies of the past 50 years have had a devastating impact on Iraqi society. ISIS itself has its origins in the conditions created in large part by the US and its allies, beginning with the illegal US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. The US-led invasion and ensuing occupation – supported in part by NZ – incited the sectarian conflict that is now destabilising Iraq and spreading throughout the region. Predominantly a military enterprise, the US-led coalition is neither led nor endorsed by the UN. It includes many nations that are reluctant to fight ISIS and excludes ground forces that are actually fighting ISIS. In legal terms, the case for the coalition’s military operations in Syria is highly controversial, whereas in Iraq the coalition can lawfully conduct operations so long as its members remain within the remit of the Iraqi Government – a government that is increasingly at risk of becoming more polarised along sectarian lines. Any military operations in Iraq would have to be conducted in accordance with the Geneva Conventions. However, many of the major contributors to the coalition have poor human rights records, some having been implicated in serious human rights violations in Iraq that may constitute war crimes. The US-led coalition is contributing to an increase in the level of violence and suffering in the region. US-organised airstrikes are resulting in civilian deaths, which are potentially war crimes. Iraq Body Count has concluded, “The rise of [ISIS] as a major force in the conflict, as well as the military responses by the Iraqi Government and the re-entry of US and Coalition air forces into the conflict, have all contributed to the elevated death tolls” in Iraq for the year 2014. Human rights organisations are accusing the Iraqi Government and government-backed militias of committing war crimes and exacerbating sectarian tensions. Iraqi forces have reportedly been engaging in ethnic cleansing in areas reclaimed from ISIS and establishing ‘killing zones’ around Baghdad. The ICRC has stated US-led “air strikes in Iraq and Syria have compounded the humanitarian consequences of the conflicts in both countries.” Aid agencies warn the coalition strategy to retake ISIS-held population centres could greatly worsen the humanitarian crisis. Under such circumstances, NZ’s actions, including military training, could aggravate the plight of war-afflicted civilians. If NZ were serious about addressing the security and humanitarian situation facing the people of the region, it would withdraw entirely from the US-led coalition and take the course of action advocated by the Prime Minister in June 2014: that any NZ response would be predicated on a UN mandate. A “responsible international citizen”, particularly a member of the UN Security Council (UNSC), would appeal to the UNSC to declare ISIS a threat to international peace and security, and mandate the appropriate remedies, including any military option. Such a UNSC resolution could lead to a more reasonable response to the conflict through an inclusive UN-organised effort, in effect tempering the harmful effects of the US-led strategy. A law-abiding state would also take a forthright stand in opposing US-backed crimes, while acting in a manner consistent with existing UNSC resolutions and international law by: blocking support for ISIS’s war-fighting capability; increasing humanitarian aid to NGOs; and supporting multilateral diplomatic initiatives to address the root causes of the conflict, especially a truce in Syria. UNAMI has stated “there is ‘general agreement,’ not just in the UN but in Iraq as well, that the security element of dealing with [ISIS] is [just] one part of the solution…to the problems facing the country”, but “an inclusive political process [is] vital to finding comprehensive solutions”. Though far from ideal, this range of measures is far more likely to serve the interests of the populations of the region. NZ retains a relatively independent foreign policy. Whether NZ adopts principled alternatives largely depends on how willing we are to persuade our Government to reflect our values overseas. EDITOR’S NOTE: Harmeet Sooden is a human rights worker affiliated with Christian Peacemaker Teams (CPT) in Iraqi Kurdistan. While working with CPT in Baghdad, Iraq in 2005, he was kidnapped and held hostage for almost four months. Tom Fox, a colleague held with him, was executed. — See also: ISIS Issue – Harmeet Sooden asks all NZ MPs to back a humanitarian response rather than a military operation. –]]>

Women wait less time for breast care appointments

By Selwyn Manning -

April 20, 2015

Waikato DHB Breast Care manager Clare Coles.[/caption]Women waiting to see a breast care specialist at Waikato Hospital are now seen sooner than in the past because of an improvement in ‘did not attend’ rates by the Breast Care Centre. Waikato DHB Breast Care manager Clare Coles said the service had increased the number of booked appointments and reduced ‘did not attend’ rates in the past two years. “We have been tracking at less than 3 per cent of our appointments being missed since we introduced phoning women the day prior to their appointment,” she said. Women are referred to the centre by their GP typically with a new breast symptom that needs investigating and some women may also be asked to return for a follow-up appointment after the initial investigation has occurred, said Coles. With the demand for each appointment available always being higher than the actual capacity, it is vital that wastage of these appointments is kept to an absolute minimum to keep waiting times as short as possible. The centre year to date has over delivered on contracted numbers seeing more than 25 new women and 60 returns per week. It has four breast surgeons and three breast clinicians each working in one to three clinics per week. In the three months since November last year, only eight women out of 1112 did not attend their appointments. “The Breast Care Centre team leader started this [phoning women] as part of a several activities aimed to increase efficiency as a result of attending the Lean Thinking training.” Coles said the team tested how efficient it was to call women by moving from calls to texts. “Last month ourdid not attend rate shot up to 7.2 per cent. This is when we stopped phoning and texted women instead,” she said. As a result the Breast Care Clinic team will be doing some more investigative data analysis to try and reduce the rate further while still best utilising resources. Coles said while phoning women had not saved the service financially, it has impacted on being able to book appointments for other women sooner if an appointment was no longer needed. “Women like to be able to re-book there and then if they are unable to attend a planned appointment when we ring and it gives us a chance to offer their appointment to someone who is waiting.” — ]]>

Second consecutive quarterly fall for CPI – Statistics NZ

By Selwyn Manning -

April 20, 2015

Annual increase in prices slows The CPI increased 0.1 percent in the year to the March 2015 quarter. This is the smallest annual movement since the September 1999 quarter, when prices decreased 0.5 percent over the year. The prices of tradable goods and services (which face foreign competition) decreased 2.8 percent in the year, with lower prices for petrol (down 15 percent) and for audio-visual and computing equipment (down 13 percent). Tradable prices are now at their lowest level since the June 2009 quarter, despite petrol prices now being 12 percent higher than they were in that quarter. Non-tradable goods and services increased 2.3 percent, the lowest annual increase since the September 2012 quarter. The main contributor was cigarettes and tobacco prices (up 14 percent), influenced by the increase in excise duty in January 2015. Housing and household utility prices were up 3.0 percent in the year, with higher prices for newly built houses excluding land (up 5.0 percent), housing rentals (up 2.3 percent), and electricity (up 3.6 percent). Excluding cigarettes and tobacco, the annual CPI decreased 0.2 percent; excluding petrol, the CPI increased 1.0 percent over the year. The CPI measures the rate of price change of goods and services purchased by New Zealand households. Authorised by Liz MacPherson, Government Statistician, 20 April 2015 – – ]]>

Public feedback sought on draft Victims Code

By Selwyn Manning -

April 20, 2015

5pm Friday 29 May 2015. — ]]>

Police appeal for witnesses to hit and run in Hanmer Springs

By Selwyn Manning -

April 20, 2015

Canterbury Police would like to hear from any witnesses and the good samaritan who went to the aid of a pedestrian following a hit and run on Woodbank Road in Hanmer Springs at approximately 2.30pm on Friday (17 April 2015).

The victim, a 63 year old female from Australia, was struck by a passing vehicle travelling away from Hanmer Springs as she walked on the grass verge about 1km from the Woodbank Cottages. She was treated at Hanmer Springs for a compound fracture to her right wrist on Friday and visited Christchurch Hospital on Saturday to have assessed and put in a full cast. The vehicle which struck the victim is described as a silver/grey ute with a stainless steel tray in the flat deck. Canterbury Police are keen to talk to the man driving a black four-door Mercedes sedan who went to her aid as he may be able to provide additional information that may assist this ongoing investigation. If you were near Woodbank Road in Hanmer Springs at around 2.30pm on Friday 17 April 2015 and saw a silver/grey ute or witnessed the incident please contact Hanmer Springs Police Station on 03 315 7117. —

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Elderly man recovering after home invasion

By Selwyn Manning -

April 20, 2015

Police are appealing for information to identity a group of men who robbed an elderly man in his Tokoroa home last night (Sunday, 19 April).

The man in his 70s answered a knock at his door at approximately 8.30pm. Three men, wearing hoodies and bandanas covering their faces, pushed their way inside where they made demands for money and tried to disconnect a Sky box. They left a short time later and at this stage it appears only the man’s phone is missing. The victim went to a neighbour’s address and contacted the police. He suffered a number of minor injuries and a possible fracture during the incident and is currently under observation in hospital. Police will be speaking to the victim further to establish in more detail what occurred inside the house and how he obtained his injuries. In the meantime police want to hear from anyone in the Manaia Street and Stanley Street areas of Tokoroa last night who may have seen or heard anything suspicious. The victim heard a vehicle start up as they left the house, so there may have been a fourth person waiting outside the address in a vehicle. Anyone with information about this incident or those responsible are asked to contact Tokoroa Police on 07 885 0100. Information can also be provided anonymously to the organisation Crimestoppers on 0800 555111. Media enquiries should be referred to Communications Manager Kim Perks on 027 234 8256.

— ]]>

Herd of Elephants? – Negative Interest Rates as the New Reality

By Keith Rankin -

April 18, 2015

By Keith Rankin – a version of this article appeared also on TheDailyBlog.co.nz.

IT’S TOO EASY TO RESPOND to a story about debt in a ‘woe is us’ kind of way. Debt is neither good nor bad. It simply is. It’s one half of a relationship; a relationship between debtors and creditors commonly mediated through a chaperone, such as a bank. Strictly, in modern financial times, it’s a relationship between a group of debtors (a debtor class) and a group of creditors (a saver class), usually intermediated by a profit-seeking business such as a bank.

One person, in response to my last week’s blog Young Debt, said what many presume: “The problem with debt is that, eventually, it has to be paid back”. This is not strictly true.

Conventionally debt has to be ‘serviced’, and that may involve it being paid back by individual debtors. But most creditors are not at all interested in being paid back. Certainly the saver class, as a class, has no interest in being paid back. Its raison d’être is to accumulate entitlements, to ‘make money’ instead of being paid back in stuff. When this happens – as it usually does – the goods and services foregone as debt service must be consumed by the very debtor class that forewent those goods and services. What is paid back by one debtor typically is consumed, not by the creditor, but by another debtor.

(A debt contract is a contract in which a creditor cedes an amount of stuff – goods and services – to a debtor in return for that debtor foregoing, as a lump sum or in instalments, a contracted amount of stuff in the future. If the future amount of stuff is greater than the present amount of stuff, then we can say that the rate of interest on this contract is positive. The debt is settled – repaid – only when the creditor completes delivery of the foregone stuff. Otherwise the liability is simply reshuffled within the debtor class; and that liability increases if the interest rate was positive.)

The more general meaning of debt service is to pay interest. But the debtor class doesn’t actually do that either, because the saver class exists to accumulate compound interest. Compound interest is what happens when creditors refuse to consume the goods and services that interest represents. Instead they cede it back to the debtor class.

Collectively the saver class believes it is entitled to receive, from the debtor class, goods and services valued at many times the world’s GDP. It’s a fiction that will practically never be a problem however, because by their very nature the saver class does not actually want ‘the bag’ (of stuff). No, it wants the money, unspent – the entitlement, unrealised – content for the debtor class to keep enjoying the bag and all its consumerist goodies. (Many of us will remember Selwyn Toogood and more recently John Hawkesby; host of the game show ‘The Money or the Bag?’)

The saver class relies totally on the debtor class having the stuff while it has the money for itself. The saver class makes its money through a combination of selling stuff to the debtor class and compounding interest against the debtor class. The debt of the debtor class is the wealth of the saver class. Liquidation of that debt represents a loss of saver ‘wealth’.

Interest is the price that debtors pay to savers when savers are scarce and wannabe borrowers are abundant. Economists have traditionally assumed the world has always been like that and always will be like that; scarce savers and abundant borrowers. Well, the relative scarcities have reversed; the world has become debt resistant. Many economists, shocked by the new reality that has dawned in 2015, have become transfixed. Few in this part of the world have noticed this herd of elephants stampeding towards our living rooms.

Interest is also the price that savers pay to debtors when wannabe borrowers are scarce and savers are abundant. That’s the underlying financial reality of the 2010s and possibly will be for the remainder of this century. Welcome to the world of negative interest rates. It’s explicit in Switzerland, Denmark and Sweden. In many other countries – the Eurozone and Japan – it’s explicitly zero but implicitly negative. Already, in 2015. In the OECD it’s mainly Australasia that’s still playing Canute.

Debt is not a sin. Debt is simply the complement of credit. In today’s brave new world, debt is an accommodation of saving that must be induced by an interest rate that clears the market. Under contemporary conditions, savers are having to pay debtors to spend on their behalf. Compound interest reverses; it unwinds. Absolutely a good thing. The conventional story of interest as a reward for thrift is in fact only half the story. Interest may also be a penalty for thrift. Interest is a payment that can go in either direction, depending on prevailing circumstances.

Negative interest rates are not quite as novel as many of us think. In the late 1970s and early 1980s we had interest rates well below inflation rates. That was the main reason for the neoliberal revolution of the 1980s. The saver class has a very strong sense of entitlement; an entitlement to receive a bounty from the debtor class. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, compound interest was unwinding; savers were effectively giving stuff to the debtor class.

The response of the saver class was threefold. First they joined the debtor class, borrowing to buy assets which they hoped would appreciate in value. It was a bit of a punt at the time. House prices and share prices were stagnating in the inflationary late-1970s. Second many savers took to more risky ‘investments’ in order to receive above zero ‘real’ returns on their savings. Thirdly they favoured monetary policies that obliged central banks to set interest rates above the rate of inflation. They introduced a specious argument for such policies; a claim that low interest rates were somehow inflationary. The gullible left even bought that argument. Look at Europe and the rest of the OECD now to see if low interest rates are inflationary. We now have deflation in the OECD such as few alive have ever witnessed.

Now that we have a substantially electronic monetary system, we can (indeed we must) manage our lives in a market economy with interest rates that properly reflect the abundance of saving and the resistance to debt. Scarce spenders need to be compensated by abundant savers.

There are other things that we can do to arrest the current pattern of most of the world’s income going to those who least want to spend it. (Indeed many such people have so much income that much of the spending that they do is obscene in the context of the needs of so many others.) We can use democratic processes to change income distribution rules that presently favour individually-held property over collectively stewarded property. However, unwinding the savings glut through negatively compounding interest rates needs be part of the mix.

Capitalism depends on the spending of the poor, the indebted, and the poor indebted. Yes, maybe there is another -ism out there to replace capitalism. Myself, I prefer an internal revolution within capitalism to the replacement of capitalism with some -ism that supplants the price mechanism as our principal means of allocating resources.

Negative ‘nominal’ interest rates – the emerging reality of our financial marketplace – represent the price mechanism at its heroic best. In the 1930s’ Great Depression the possibility of negative rates was thwarted by people hoarding cash in the bottom drawer rather than paying the banks to recycle their unspent money. Today there are ways to discount hoarded cash.

It is the saver class, not the working class, who will rebel against capitalism this century. In the 1980s the saver class revolted successfully, paying themselves interest at distorted prices which they themselves controlled. It is now up to the debtor classes to save capitalism for the downtrodden; to spend money they haven’t received. In capitalism, someone must have the bag.

—

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NewsRoom Digest: Top NZ News Items for April 17, 2015

By Selwyn Manning -

April 18, 2015

This edition of NewsRoom_Digest contains 6 media release snippets and 8 links of the day from Friday 17th April. Top stories in the news cycle include the Government proposes to amend the Coroners Act to limit investigations into deaths of soldier overseas, a public health researcher says a $40m Government programme to tackle obesity is unlikely to have much impact, and the White House moves a step closer to signing the Trans Pacific Partnership. SNIPPETS OF THE DAY Labour: Battle Fatality Must Be Scrutinised: As New Zealand troops head to Iraq under a shroud of secrecy, the Government is pushing ahead with legislation to remove independent scrutiny of incidents where Kiwi soldiers are killed in hostile action overseas, Labour’s Defence spokesperson Phil Goff says. Changes proposed to the Coroners Act will prohibit a coroner from launching an inquiry into the death of a Defence Force member if it occurred during hostile action on operational service. “The Coroner will only be able to report on such a death if the Attorney-General, a politician, directs him or her to do so,” Phil Goff says.“Documents obtained by Labour reveal Defence Force boss Tim Keating was warned of major concerns around the changes in the Coroner’s Amendment Bill. Call For Coordinated Housing Response: Chief Human Rights Commissioner David Rutherford today supports calls for all political parties to agree to a cross party accord to address the “very serious” issues facing New Zealand with respect to adequate housing. “What concerns me most are the many and varied housing issues in New Zealand which have no joined up, coordinated action plan to address them,” Mr Rutherford said. “We’re seeing housing issues being talked about as separate issues when in fact they need to be addressed as a whole.” Minister Praises $120m Drug Bust: Police Minister Michael Woodhouse and Customs Minister Nicky Wagner today congratulated agencies for the latest successful drug-related operation targeting the production and supply of methamphetamine in Auckland. Operation Wand and Operation Sorrento recovered 123 kilograms of methamphetamine with an estimated street value of over $120 million in the Auckland region in late March. Nine individuals have been arrested and charged. “These operations were successfully executed due to the great work of Police districts and the Organised and Financial Crime Agency New Zealand (OFCANZ), and I commend their efforts,” Mr Woodhouse says. NZ Dollar Surges Past RBNZ Forecast: The New Zealand dollar trade-weighted index has soared above the Reserve Bank’s projections to a nine-month high but traders and strategists say the bank has few options, other than jawboning, to drive the currency lower in the face of stand-out economic growth. The TWI touched 80.08 this morning, its highest level since July last year when it touched a record 82.03. Last month, the central bank forecast the TWI to average 76.7 in the second quarter. It was recently at 79.78. NZ First: Make Use Of Surplus Military Vehicles: New Zealand First wants the 2015 Defence White Paper to look at options for the 35 Light Armoured Vehicles reportedly declared surplus by the National Government in 2010. The Party is eyeing these LAVs as a way to regenerate lost capabilities for the Army. “There is meant to be a Defence White Paper in 2015 and New Zealand First wants to use the White Paper process to regain Army capabilities that were lost under Labour and National,” says Ron Mark, New Zealand First Defence spokesperson. “Labour literally took the gas axe to direct fire support and mortar carriers while National has just shrugged its shoulders. Revised Landing Fee Accepted By Com Com: Wellington International Airport’s revised landing fees are “just within” the Commerce Commission’s acceptable range of returns, the regulator said. The capital city airport, which is co-owned by Infratil and Wellington City Council, revised its landing fees after the commission previously found it was targeting excessive profits.The commission’s latest analysis estimates that Wellington Airport has set its prices targeting a return of 8.4 percent between June 1, 2014, and March 31, 2019, which is just within the upper limit of an acceptable range of 7.4 percent to 8.4 percent, the regulator said in a statement accompanying its draft report analysing the revised pricing. LINKS OF THE DAY MINISTER LAUNCHES NEW BIOSECURITY PROJECT: Primary Industries Minister Nathan Guy launched Biosecurity 2025 at The Future of the Heartland Forum in North Canterbury this afternoon. People with an interest in participating in the Biosecurity 2025 engagement can register their interest by emailing Biosecurity2025@mpi.govt.nz More information will also be available at www.mpi.govt.nz COM COM RELEASES WELLINGTON AIRPORT REPORT: The Commerce Commission has today released its draft report indicating Wellington Airport is now targeting returns for the period from 1 June 2014 to 31 March 2019 that fall within an estimated range of acceptable returns. For further information, including a copy of the draft report, see:http://www.comcom.govt.nz/regulated-industries/airports-information-disclosure-summary-and-analysis/. A copy of Wellington Airport’s section 56G report from February 2013 can be found here:http://www.comcom.govt.nz/regulated-industries/airports/section-56g-reports/ NUMBER OF WELFARE DEPENDANTS DECREASE: Social Development Minister Anne Tolley says the latest benefit figures show a further year-on-year decline as the New Zealand economy improves and welfare reforms continue to support families. There were 284,260 people on benefit at the end of the March 2015 quarter, a drop of 11,060, or 3.7 per cent, compared to a year ago. The figures are the lowest since March 2009. “These numbers are extremely positive, and they continue the downward trend of the number of people on welfare,” says Mrs Tolley. The latest benefit data is available at:http://www.msd.govt.nz/about-msd-and-our-work/publications-resources/statistics/benefit/index.html NEED FOR CROSS PARTY ACCORD ON HOUSING: Chief Human Rights Commissioner David Rutherford today supports calls for all political parties to agree to a cross party accord to address the “very serious” issues facing New Zealand with respect to adequate housing. “What concerns me most are the many and varied housing issues in New Zealand which have no joined up, coordinated action plan to address them,” Mr Rutherford said. “The human right to adequate housing is a binding legal obligation of the State of New Zealand. This means the government has a duty to protect the right of people in New Zealand to enjoy adequate housing and it has a responsibility to provide remedies. Download the report here: http://www.hrc.co.nz/files/1214/2681/4255/Right_to_Housing_Flyer_FINAL__2.pdf PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM TURNS 50:The warning system which provides coordinated tsunami threat information to countries throughout the Pacific marks its 50th anniversary next week. New Zealand will play a part in an International Tsunami Symposium in Hawaii on April 20 and 21 to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the Pacific Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (PTWS), and a subsequent meeting of the Intergovernmental Coordination Group (ICG) of the PTWS from 22-24 April. More information on how to prepare for tsunamis is available online at: www.getthru.govt.nz/disasters/tsunami GALLIPOLI EXHIBITION OPEN: A ground-breaking national exhibition opens at Te Papa on 18 April, to mark the centenary of the First World War. “Gallipoli: The scale of our war combines the world of museums with the world-class creative artistry that Weta Workshop is renowned for, to immerse you in the sounds, sights and emotions of the war,” says Te Papa Chief Executive Rick Ellis. You can find out more about the exhibition at: www.gallipoli.tepapa.govt.nz And that’s our sampling of the day that was on Friday 17th April 2015. Brought to EveningReport by Newsroom Digest. –]]>

Obama’s Fast Track Bill a last-ditch move to rescue TPPA

By Selwyn Manning -

April 17, 2015

Source: Professor Jane Kelsey.

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Professor Jane Kelsey.[/caption]

‘With less than two months until the window is likely to close for President Obama to get a deal in the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) under his watch, the administration has put a bill before Congress to grant him “fast track” authority’, according to Professor Jane Kelsey who monitors the negotiations.

The controversial process of Fast Track, euphemistically called Trade Promotion Authority, would require Congress to vote yes or not to a final text and it time limits the debate to prevent filibustering.

According to Professor Kelsey a number of governments at the TPPA table have recently said they won’t reach a final deal unless Obama has Fast Track, including New Zealand.

‘Doing something this week was really do or die for the President, even though he doesn’t have the votes to get the bill through, especially in the House of Representatives’, Kelsey said.

The 110-page Bill is a generalised wish list of what the US wants from the TPPA, while protecting its domestic interests. Although the content has been heavily negotiated before being introduced, the negotiating objectives can be ignored.

‘What’s most significant, and the reason there will be a dog-fight, is Section 4 that says what powers Congress is giving up. It is little changed from an earlier Fast Track law that sank last year’, Kelsey said.

There were no House Democrats willing to co-sponsor the Bill. Powerful ranking Democrat on the House Ways and Means Committee Sander Levin described the negotiating objectives as ‘obsolete or woefully inadequate’ while putting ‘Congress in the back seat’.

Ironically, Obama is relying heavily on support from Republicans, but there is a substantial bloc of conservative Republicans who consider Obama to be an ‘imperial president’ and are loathe to grant him any more executive power through Fast Track. Republican leaders have said he would need 50 votes from the Democrats. The latest counts from Washington analysts such as Politico put him well short.

The New York Times predicts it will be one of the toughest legislative battles of Obama’s last 19 months in office.

US consumer group Public Citizen says there is no guarantee the Bill will even get to a vote, and might be withdrawn rather than fail. The three major attempts to get Fast Track in the past 25 years saw one pass by 27 votes in 1991 and another passed by 2 votes; the third failed.

Tabling the Bill now is meant to have a demonstration effect, ahead of the make or break ministerial meeting scheduled for late May. Obama hopes it will give the talks new momentum by convincing the eleven other countries to ignore the evidence and believe he can get it passed.

‘Let’s hope for New Zealand’s sake that Trade Minister Groser and Prime Minister Key actually stick by their statements and refuse to make any political trade-offs they know Congress can pick apart’, Kelsey said.

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New Zealand Report – NZ Spies Provided Bangladesh With Intelligence

By Selwyn Manning -

April 17, 2015

[poll id=”10″]

NZHerald.co.nz

ITEM ONE: New Zealand’s reputation as an honest broker on the world stage is again being questioned here, after revelations that the Government’s signals spies have passed intelligence over to Bangladesh’s counter-terror squads, forces that are themselves under investigation for torture, summary executions, and other crimes against humanity. The latest report in the investigative series, the Snowden Revelations, has detailed how New Zealand’s signals surveillance spy agency the GCSB has for over a decade targeted Bangladesh’s communications. The revelations are backed by official documents acquired by US intelligence whistleblower, Edward Snowden. The spying has been part of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance’s counter-terrorism operations. New Zealand’s GCSB has been tasked, since 2004, to acquire all cellphone communications of the entire Bangladesh population. It does this through a full-take manoeuvre using technology provided by the USA’s National Security Agency, the NSA. The data acquired is packaged, sniffed or sifted, analysed and made available to intelligence analysts working for Five Eyes agencies attached to the government’s of the United States, Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. The New Zealand Herald reported Thursday that the intelligence gathered by New Zealand’s GCSB has also been forwarded to Bangladesh’s state intelligence agency and its notorious Rapid Action Battalion (RAP) – organisations that have carried out summary executions, torture, and according to Human Rights organisations, operate with a disregard for international law. They are currently under investigation by the International Criminal Court. The twist to this tale is a classic sting. New Zealand’s GCSB also targets the communications of Bangladesh’s authorities including those accused of the above mentioned crimes. The Prime Minister John Key refused to elaborate on the revelations, and would neither confirm nor deny the claims. He refused to respond to accusations that New Zealand has become complicit in Bangladesh’s crimes against its own people through sharing intelligence with the regime, information that identifies people who oppose the Bangladesh government. ITEM TWO: New Zealand’s version of The Batchelor programme is not going well. The hapless Batchelor, Arthur Green, has on three occasions offered a rose to one of his supposed admirers, only to have them refuse his offerings. On the first week of the programme, bachelorette Rosie preferred to leave the show rather than accept a rose from poor ole Art. Then, Danielle L gave Art his rose back, saying to continue would have been “disingenuous” as she didn’t think they would find love. The latest was this week, when Auckland criminal lawyer Danielle B opted not to receive a rose from Art, citing a lack of chemistry between the pair. While looking a bit desperate, Art has shrugged off the rejections and is preparing for another week of ‘romancing’. New Zealand Report broadcasts live on Fridays on FiveAA.com.au and webcasts on EveningReport.nz. –]]>

NZ welcomes UNSC resolution on Yemen

By Selwyn Manning -

April 16, 2015

Headline: NZ welcomes UNSC resolution on Yemen

Foreign Minister Murray McCully has welcomed the United Nations Security Council’s resolution on Yemen and called for the resumption of political dialogue between all parties involved in the conflict.

“We are deeply concerned by the situation in Yemen and the impact the conflict is having on civilians,” Mr McCully says.

“Without political dialogue, and the Houthis returning to the negotiating table, the crisis in Yemen will only continue to deepen.

“New Zealand recognises the legitimacy of President Hadi’s government and the interests of Yemen’s neighbours in maintaining regional security.

“Through our role on the United Nations Security Council we have supported a resolution put forward by the Gulf Cooperation Council which urges all parties to facilitate the delivery of aid, and calls for a return to talks.

“We commend the leadership shown by Jordan, as the current president of the Security Council, in passing this resolution.

“New Zealand will continue working with other Security Council members to find a political solution to the situation in Yemen and ensure the plight of civilians is addressed,” Mr McCully says.

– –

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Tonight on Evening Report – April 16 2015

By Selwyn Manning -

April 16, 2015

State Of It: Capital gains tax mooted by New Zealand Reserve Bank

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Auckland the backbone to New Zealand’s economy.[/caption] Government’s ‘Market Will Correct It’ Ideology Exposed. Editorial by Selwyn Manning. THE RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND has issued a public statement backing a capital gains tax (CGT) as a way of correcting an over-heated Auckland housing market. It is the most persuasive indicator so far that the Reserve Bank’s preferences are out-of-step with current Government policy. Throughout 2014 … FULL ARTICLE Radio: Across The Ditch: Hot Auckland Housing Market Risks Pulling Economy Down Around It

RADIO: FIVEAA AUSTRALIA & EVENING REPORT:Selwyn Manning and Peter Godfrey deliver their weekly bulletin, Across The Ditch. This week they discuss how the New Zealand Reserve Bank is speaking out backing a capital gains tax as a means of cooling down a heated Auckland property market. Peter raises the issue of domestic violence and discusses how Australia’s statistics show one victim of domestic violence is killed every three days. And the weather, both NZ and Australia feel the icy grip of winter approaching. FULL ARTICLE

INDONESIA: Norway’s PM appeals for halt to state executions

MIL OSI Analysis – Pacific Media Centre/Pacific Media Watch – INDONESIA: Norway’s PM appeals for halt to state executions – Report by Daniel Drageset.

Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg has appealed to Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo to abolish the death sentence in the country. On a state visit in Jakarta this week, Solberg discussed the upcoming executions of Australians Myuran Sukumaran and Andrew Chan.… FULL ARTICLE Gareth Renowden on High Water – NZ climate comic anthology

MIL OSI Analysis – Source: Hot Topic – By Gareth Renowden – Analysis published with permission of Hot-Topic.co.nz

Scientists investigate how climate changes, politicians (should) decide what to do about it. Tough jobs. Artists have just as difficult a job: to comment on the reality and unreality they see in society’s responses to the climate threat, and by doing so motivate us to create a liveable future. In High Water, a new anthology of climate-inspired work by NZ comic artists, pulled together by Damon Keen and Faction Comics, that response ranges from the touching to the frightening, huge vistas seen through little frames — all presented in visually stunning stories drawn by NZ’s finest artists. FULL ARTICLE Keith Rankin: Rent Now, Live Life, Buy Later Maybe

By Keith Rankin – This article was first published this morning on Scoop.co.nz. THE

THE HAND-WRINGING about the Auckland property market continues to escalate; the headless chickens run amok through the corridors of power, and through the mainstream media.

There are two issues for policymakers. The Reserve Bank needs to ensure that our commercial banks are not too exposed to lending on inflated security. And the Government and Auckland Council together need to act to fix the residential rental market. FULL ARTICLE

OSI REPORTS:

PERRIAM label takes next step at iD Fashion Week

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PERRIAM Woman Removable Chain Neck Top_photo by Camilla Rutherford.[/caption] MIL OSI – Source: Scope Media – Kiwi fashion designer Christina Perriam is set to gain national and international recognition by showcasing her first-ever PERRIAM Woman Winter range on the catwalk at iD Fashion Week.After successfully launching her new luxury merino fashion label PERRIAM in October last year, Christina has since been accepted as one of the designers to enter the Capsule collection, as part of the renowned iD Fashion Week in Dunedin, which takes place from April 18-26, 2015. FULL ARTICLE

Prime Minister to lead trade mission to Gulf States – Government

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Prime Minister John Key.[/caption] MIL OSI – Source: National Party – Prime Minister to lead trade mission to Gulf States Prime Minister John Key will lead an 18-member New Zealand business delegation to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait from 26 April to 1 May. This will be the first visit by a New Zealand Prime Minister to Saudi Arabia. “The visit is an opportunity …FULL ARTICLE

Seasonal changes pose risks for farmers

MIL OSI – Source: WorkSafe New Zealand – Seasonal changes pose risks for farmers The recent cold snap is a timely reminder for farmers that we are heading into a high-risk … FULL ARTICLE

Offshore online racing and sports betting under spotlight – Government

MIL OSI – Source: New Zealand Government – Offshore online racing and sports betting under spotlight A working group has been appointed to shed some light on the growth of … FULL ARTICLE

Indonesia: West Papua to Be a Conservation Province

MIL OSI – Source: US Global Legal Monitor – Indonesia: West Papua to Be a Conservation Province Link to this article (Apr 15, 2015) The local government in West … FULL ARTICLE

Resources needed to get 21 million children into school in Middle East, North Africa – UNICEF

MIL OSI – Source: United Nations – Despite impressive progress in raising school enrolment over the past decade, one in four children and young adolescents in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are either out of school or at risk of dropping out, according to the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF).

“At a time of such change and turmoil, this region simply cannot afford to let 21 million children fall by the wayside,” Maria Calivis, Regional Director for UNICEF MENA, said today in a statement from Beirut. FULL ARTICLE —

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Keith Rankin: Rent Now, Live Life, Buy Later Maybe

By Keith Rankin -

April 16, 2015

By Keith Rankin – This article was first published this morning on Scoop.co.nz.

THE HAND-WRINGING about the Auckland property market continues to escalate; the headless chickens run amok through the corridors of power, and through the mainstream media.

Much of the bubble is foreign financed (directly), meaning that part of the Auckland bubble is fuelled by non-resident cash buyers. (‘Non-resident’ certainly includes New Zealanders resident overseas.) That is not an issue for the New Zealand banking system, though it may be an issue for global finance in that what is happening in Auckland represents a small part of a global bubble in real estate in select world cities.

The remaining part of the Auckland bubble is funded by New Zealand banks doing what banks do (lending to New Zealanders), but, in doing so, also acting as a conduit for foreign savings. The problem in New Zealand is one of banks having too many foreign liabilities on their books, and having too many ‘eggs in the property basket’ on the asset sides of their balance sheets.

The Reserve Bank is right to worry about these things (see yesterday’s news release Action needed to reduce housing imbalances). Unlike many other countries, New Zealand avoided a banking crisis in 2008. The finance companies then acted as a ‘crumple zone’, protecting the banks. New Zealand’s banks will be significantly more exposed during the next financial crisis than they were last time. (New Zealand has had three periods of banking crisis in the last 140 years: around 1880, early 1890s; late 1980s.)

We need policies that will strengthen the New Zealand economy across the global economic cycle, ensuring that New Zealand residents will be well-placed to buy, at reasonable prices, the so-called ‘investment’ properties when their owners tire of them. (The Auckland bubble is analogous to the coastal property bubble of the 2000s’ decade.)

In the meantime, Auckland needs to be a vibrant world city with a well-functioning rental market. On Radio New Zealand’s the Panel (31 May 2013) Neville Gibson noted:

“The key thing on the Reserve Bank’s plate is prices of Auckland’s housing … the discussion widened out … most countries do not have the same levels of home ownership or expectations of it as we do … economists [at an NZIER symposium] have pointed out that, far from being a progressive thing, home ownership is actually a regressive type of thing; once you’ve bought a house you don’t want change … the dynamics move into the centre of the city and we’ve seen all around the world in dynamic cities that people in the centre do not own … the unintended consequences of everyone having security in owning their own property is social stagnation … you look at the centre of Auckland … you see young people and that is what creates the dynamism in Auckland … none of these people own a property, they rent it … you can easily move, you’re very mobile.”

The Auckland isthmus has a huge number of properties that are not the permanent residences of their owners. (Many other properties in the isthmus are large and underoccupied by owners whose children have long since left home.) So present housing policy should be about making the best use of this housing stock to further build a vibrant central Auckland where young people can live, work and move, and where middle-income families can grow up in rental properties close to their parents’ places of work. (These middle income renting parents could be being encouraged to own rental properties outside of the isthmus; so please, policymakers, don’t make it more expensive for such New Zealanders to own a rental house!)

Properties in the isthmus that are not the principal residence of their owners fall into three categories: unfurnished rental properties currently being let; furnished properties that the owners (or relatives) may occupy some of the time; and empty properties that are being held purely for land speculation.

We need to know precisely how many residential properties (especially but not only in the isthmus that once defined Auckland City) fall into each category. And, to build a vibrant liveable city without homelessness, we need policies around all three types of property.

Unfurnished rental properties are great for both families and young people building lives with a commitment to living in Auckland. We need incentives to raise the quality and maintenance level of these properties, and to encourage their owners to invest as long-term landlords. If the owners have the mindset that these properties are simply assets that can be flicked on at a moment’s notice, then that is a huge problem that makes people averse to renting their homes; this attitude on the part of owners is what gives renting a bad name. Residential unfurnished investment houses need to be understood as long-term investments.

We need to accept that rich people in the world like to have multiple residences, that they can move themselves and family members into as and when their inclinations dictate. Here Auckland need’s to develop a vibrant rental market in short-medium term furnished housing that reflects both the accommodation needs of mobile renters unencumbered with chattels of their own, and the needs of absent owners who require their properties to be house-sat. Because each party is providing services for the other, rents for such properties need not be high.

Finally, we need laws that come down heavily on pure land-bankers; people who just sit on city land, often with derelict houses on that land, just waiting for the moment to realise for them an unearned (typically leveraged) capital gain. (Such laws should also be applied to undeveloped land on the fringes; residential land not built on, with owners instead looking to make a large speculative gain on such sections. Extending urban limits just increases the amount of such land available to speculators.)

New Zealand has a long history of land speculation, especially in the nineteenth century. One of the biggest episodes was the Canterbury bubble of the 1870s that burst in 1878, creating a bank crisis and a long economic crisis in its wake. While that may be a long time ago, we are not immune from it happening again. We may also note that Japan experienced one of the world’s most ridiculous speculative crises from 1987 to 1991, leading to a subsequent banking crisis. Many say Japan never recovered. While I am not one of those ‘many’, Japan quickly lost its former tag as an economic superpower to rival the United States. Now the Eurozone of Europe as a whole is suffering in the wake this century of huge speculative bubbles and banking crises along its southern and western periphery.

New Zealand policymakers cannot do much directly about overpriced land in Auckland. What they can do is manage the domestic economy in a countercyclical way, and pursue policies that facilitate a vibrant city with an abundant rental market.

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Prime Minister to lead trade mission to Gulf States – Government

By Selwyn Manning -

April 16, 2015

MIL OSI – Source: National Party – Prime Minister to lead trade mission to Gulf States Prime Minister John Key will lead an 18-member New Zealand business delegation to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait from 26 April to 1 May. This will be the first visit by a New Zealand Prime Minister to Saudi Arabia. “The visit is an opportunity to strengthen and grow trade and business links between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and New Zealand,” says Mr Key. It will also provide the opportunity to progress the conclusion of the NZ-GCC free trade agreement. “A key priority for me will be talking to key figures in the region about the importance of progressing New Zealand’s Free Trade Agreement with the GCC,” says Mr Key. The GCC is New Zealand’s fifth largest export destination with goods exports worth $1.9 billion in the year to December 2014. Exports of goods have grown by an average 10 percent per year over the last decade. “New Zealand has a lot to offer the Gulf region and a number of our businesses already have a strong presence in this market. My visit is aimed at opening doors and helping to further promote New Zealand companies,” says Mr Key. “It has always been my intention to travel to the Gulf as it is an important region and I’m pleased to be leading a strong business delegation on this visit,” says Mr Key. A range of meetings are scheduled with senior government leaders across the region. “These meetings provide an opportunity to discuss our economic relationship and also, given our seat on the UN Security Council, it’s timely to discuss the complex security issues facing the Middle East.” We have reinforced our commitment to this region in recent years with the opening of our embassy in Abu Dhabi, and the expansion of offices in Dubai and Riyadh. The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have also recently opened embassies in New Zealand. The Prime Minister will be accompanied by New Zealand Trade Minister Tim Groser. –]]>

Seasonal changes pose risks for farmers

By Selwyn Manning -

April 16, 2015

MIL OSI – Source: WorkSafe New Zealand – Seasonal changes pose risks for farmers The recent cold snap is a timely reminder for farmers that we are heading into a high-risk period for vehicle and machinery-related injuries. Snow, sleet and rain over the past few days have created challenging conditions for rural workers just as autumn begins. WorkSafe Agriculture Manger Al McCone says autumn sees lots of clean-up activity and farmers doing jobs that have been put off – just as conditions get worse. “The weather is getting colder and wetter while farmers’ get to the tasks that they don’t frequently do. It’s a timely reminder for farmers to think about the risks associated with those changes, with more jobs to do while the days get shorter,” McCone says. This period sees an increased use of farm vehicles and machinery. While quad-bikes are commonly associated with farm vehicle incidents, tractors and other machinery are also involved in a large number of injuries and deaths. “The stark fact is that nearly four out of five work-related deaths in agriculture happen as a result of machine or vehicle-related incidents. “A total of 10,000 people suffered vehicle/machinery-related injuries on farms in the last six years – this resulted in ACC claims of $60 million,” McCone says. Incidents can range from slips and falls to serious injury or loss of life, for instance crushing when a tractor rolls, being struck by a mobile plant or front loaders, or being caught in equipment such as an uncovered power take-off shaft. McCone says before beginning any job, stop and consider what you need to watch out for and how to complete it safely on that day, at that time – no matter how often you have done it before. “Injuries often happen when people are doing routine tasks they have done many times, especially when they are under time pressure. “That last job in the afternoon could turn out to be the last job – ever. “Farmers make important farming decisions every day – the amount of fertiliser to use, choice of bull, where to move stock. The decisions involving which vehicle to use, the time you need to allocate to a task, or how to involve the kids are even more important. They are the ones that cost lives,” says Al McCone. For more information on staying safe on your farm, go to www.saferfarms.org.nz –]]>

Offshore online racing and sports betting under spotlight – Government

By Selwyn Manning -

April 16, 2015

MIL OSI – Source: New Zealand Government – Offshore online racing and sports betting under spotlight A working group has been appointed to shed some light on the growth of New Zealanders engaging in offshore online racing and sports betting, Racing Minister Nathan Guy announced today. “The TAB is operated by the New Zealand Racing Board and has a national monopoly on all racing and sports betting. The Racing Board is required by law to distribute all profits from this betting back to the racing industry, which relies on these distributions to survive. National Sporting Organisations also receive a percentage of sports betting turnover,” says Mr Guy. “When New Zealanders place their sports and racing bets with overseas betting operators online, they operate outside of our regulatory framework. This means that offshore organisations make money on New Zealand racing and sports without paying their fair share of tax, or making contributions back to the racing industry or sporting organisations that make the betting possible in the first place. “These New Zealanders are also operating outside the safety net of gambling harm mitigation that we have here,” says Mr Guy. Mr Guy says that this is the first real attempt to clarify the extent of the problem and work towards developing solutions. “The racing industry contributes about $1.6 billion to New Zealand’s GDP, is a major source of employment supporting over 17,000 full time jobs across the country, and has a particularly strong presence in our regions,” says Mr Guy. “Given the global trend towards online betting, this issue will continue to grow and needs to be addressed now. “The issues at hand are complex but we are not the only country dealing with this problem. There is now a growing body of international work on this matter the working group can reference,” says Mr Guy. The working group will commence this month and is due to report back with recommendations for the Minister later this year. The group will chaired by former Minister, Chris Tremain. Other members are: New Zealand Racing Board Chief Executive, John Allen; the Chair of Sport New Zealand, Sir Paul Collins; breeder, racehorse owner and the NZRB’s Thoroughbred representative, Greg McCarthy; and two Internal Affairs officials. “Overall, the group has a good depth of experience. Chris Tremain’s familiarity with gambling regulation as a former Minister of Internal Affairs and his experience throughout sporting circles will serve him well as Chair of the working group,” says Mr Guy. –]]>

Resources needed to get 21 million children into school in Middle East, North Africa – UNICEF

By Selwyn Manning -

April 16, 2015

MIL OSI – Source: United Nations – Resources needed to get 21 million children into school in Middle East, North Africa – UNICEF 15 April 2015 Despite impressive progress in raising school enrolment over the past decade, one in four children and young adolescents in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are either out of school or at risk of dropping out, according to the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF). “At a time of such change and turmoil, this region simply cannot afford to let 21 million children fall by the wayside,” Maria Calivis, Regional Director for UNICEF MENA, said today in a statement from Beirut. “These children must be given the opportunity to acquire the skills they need through education in order to play their part in the region’s transformation,” she added. According to a joint report released by UNICEF and the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), a 40 per cent reduction in the number of out-of-school children in the MENA region over the past decade provided hope and opportunities for millions. Progress has, however, recently slowed due to a combination of poverty, discrimination, poor quality learning and conflict. Governments need urgently to scale up their efforts notably to prioritize the education needs of disadvantaged families. New policies are needed to scale up pre-primary education programmes, tackle student drop-out and gender discrimination, and help more children in conflict areas get access to learning. “We need targeted interventions to reach the families displaced by conflict, the girls forced to stay home and the children obliged to work,” said Silvia Montoya, Director of the UNESCO Institute for Statistics. For their part, donors must commit more funds to close disparity gaps that keep so many children out of the classroom, the report argues. According to the report, 12.3 million children and young adolescents in the Middle East and North Africa are out of school. In addition, according to recent calculations, over six million children are at risk of dropping out. A further three million children are out of school in Syria and Iraq, where conflict has destroyed large parts of the education system. As the violence expands, millions more are at risk of becoming a ‘lost generation’ deprived of the knowledge and skills needed to be successful adults. Several other countries around the region are experiencing armed conflicts or political turmoil that prevents children from learning. The report underlines why girls are not in school and how they are at particular risk of dropping out due to social attitudes, early marriage, and a lack of female teachers. On average, a girl in the MENA region is 25 per cent less likely to be in school than a boy. Meanwhile, among adolescents, high drop-out rates are fuelled by poor education standards and low quality school environments. The report comes at a crucial time as it will feed into the efforts of the international community on crafting the post-2015 education goals. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Out-of-School Children Initiative (OOSCI) is part of a global Initiative launched by UNICEF and the UNESCO Institute for Statistics in 2010. Its objective is to identify barriers that contribute to exclusion from education and analyse the existing strategies related to enhanced school participation. Nine countries are participating from the MENA region: Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia and Yemen. –]]>

Gareth Renowden on High Water – NZ climate comic anthology

By Selwyn Manning -

April 16, 2015

MIL OSI Analysis – Source: Hot Topic – By Gareth Renowden – Analysis published with permission of Hot-Topic.co.nz Scientists investigate how climate changes, politicians (should) decide what to do about it. Tough jobs. Artists have just as difficult a job: to comment on the reality and unreality they see in society’s responses to the climate threat, and by doing so motivate us to create a liveable future. In High Water, a new anthology of climate-inspired work by NZ comic artists, pulled together by Damon Keen and Faction Comics, that response ranges from the touching to the frightening, huge vistas seen through little frames — all presented in visually stunning stories drawn by NZ’s finest artists. The book kicks off with a superb little story by Dylan Horrocks, Dear Hinewai: HorrocksHW I’m a great fan of Dylan’s work¹ — his latest, Sam Zabel and the Magic Pen is a real tour de force — and here he draws beautiful and bittersweet postcards from a future where New Zealanders are exploring a radically altered planet by airship². There is a lot of good stuff in High Water, but I have some personal favourites: Damon Keen’s The Lotus Eaters, which takes us on a trip from modern day Auckland through a grim future to the arcadia on the other side of our civilisation reminds me of the comics I grew up with (think Eagle), while Cory Mathis’ My Wife, The Mastodon looks at climate change through the eyes of ice age humans encountering neanderthals (and sabre tooth tigers). Chris Slane’s wonderful Dialogo di Galileo is a powerful poke at climate denial, with a great twist in the last frames. SlaneHW There’s an introduction by Lucy Lawless, in which she hits the nail rather more effectively on the head than our Prime Minister:

These eleven incredible artists have not stinted in imagining the gravest outcomes of man-made climate change. Perhaps a visual warning will work better than a written one, that requires imagination from a recalcitrant mind. Gorgeous work!

She’s right, you know. We need all hands to the pumps if we’re going to deal with the inundation coming our way, and High Water is a most welcome contribution.

To see more images from the anthology, and to get more background on the inspiration behind it, see this interview with editor Damon Keen. High Water, featuring the work of Dylan Horrocks, Sarah Laing, Katie O’Neill, Cory Mathis, Christian Pearce, Ned Wedlock, Toby Morris, Damon Keen, Chris Slane, Ross Murray and Jonathan King is being launched this evening in Auckland. Best wishes to all who sail in her… –]]>