Analysis by Geoffrey Miller.
Political Roundup: NZ’s foreign policy hardens under new leadership
Times are changing in New Zealand foreign policy.
That seems to be the message from New Zealand’s new triumvirate of ministers with responsibility for foreign affairs and defence – Prime Minister Chris Hipkins, foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta and defence minister Andrew Little.
Jacinda Ardern’s departure as Prime Minister was always going to provide an opportunity to adjust New Zealand’s positioning. In particular, Hipkins’ decision to appoint Andrew Little as defence minister – replacing Peeni Henare – seems to have been a strategic move.
From the top, Hipkins has struck a more ideological tone in his most substantive comments on foreign policy to date, promising in a recent interview that New Zealand would maintain ‘steadfast support for Ukraine and its people as they continue to defend their homeland, and in doing so, the principles that we hold dear’.
The comments appeared notably more forceful than what amounted to the final word on Ukraine made by Jacinda Ardern while she was Prime Minister, made in mid-December when the New Zealand Parliament hosted a virtual address by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
In her response to Zelensky at the time, Ardern seemed largely content to reiterate her government’s current level of assistance to Ukraine. The then Prime Minister told the Ukrainian President ‘I want to acknowledge your further calls for support’, but pledged only a relatively small amount of additional humanitarian aid to the Red Cross.
Hipkins’ shift in tone raises the possibility that more support from New Zealand could be in the works – perhaps including more money for ‘lethal aid’ weaponry to help Ukraine in any spring counter-offensive, or at least equipment that could be usefully deployed on the battlefield.
It has now been eleven months since New Zealand made its first and so far only lethal aid contribution to the war so far, which came in the form of a $NZ7.5m transfer to the United Kingdom to purchase weapons on New Zealand’s behalf.
Since the cash-for-weapons announcement last April, New Zealand’s assistance has focused on sanctions, money for non-lethal and humanitarian aid and on sending a small number of New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) personnel to Europe to train Ukrainian soldiers.
To that end, Little’s recent comments that the Government is at least giving ‘further consideration’ to Ukrainian requests for New Zealand to send it light armoured vehicles (LAVs) are intriguing.
New Zealand reportedly has 74 working LAVs, but Peeni Henare, Little’s predecessor as defence minister, rejected a request by Ukraine to send them last August.
Henare’s rejection was made ostensibly on technical grounds, motivated by factors such as a lack of spare parts and troops to provide training. This rationale has always seemed unconvincing and more like an excuse to maintain a firewall on sending more material support to Kyiv.
In the US, the Biden administration argued for some time that its own Abrams tanks needed too much fuel and heavy maintenance to be useful to Kyiv – only to eventually give in and send the hardware that Kyiv had been asking for in a deal announced in January.
Ukraine’s non-resident ambassador to New Zealand, Vasyl Myroshnychenko, says Canada could help to fix the LAVs – a suggestion that Little appears to at least be contemplating, based on his comment that ‘we would want to work with partners in terms of any support that we can provide.’
Exactly where the truth lies remains to be seen: Hipkins was non-committal and admitted ‘I haven’t got the latest information’ when asked about the LAVs at his post-cabinet press conference on Monday.
Still, there is far more to the foreign policy shifts than just a sharper tone (and potentially an upgrade in substance) when it comes to Ukraine. The defence portfolio provides further clues.
New Zealand’s military has essentially been in a holding pattern since Labour’s outright victory in the 2020 election. A formal ‘Defence Policy Review’ process was announced last July, with a rather generous final reporting date set for mid-2024.
But Little has suggested in media interviews that work on the review needs to ‘accelerate’ amidst a ‘materially different’ geopolitical environment.
The new defence minister noted increased military spending and activity by Japan, France, the UK and Australia in the Indo-Pacific, adding ‘there’s an expectation that we will demonstrate some leadership’.
It seems likely that this will involve New Zealand significantly boosting its defence spending and cooperating more closely with the countries Little mentioned.
While he was reluctant to comment on specifics, pointing to the review, Little suggested a ‘different range of maritime capability’ could be needed so that New Zealand could satisfy defence needs both closer to home and ‘further abroad’.
Major spending decisions may be just months away.
Under the original terms of reference for the Defence Policy Review, an initial draft of a new defence policy and strategy was to be submitted by October 2022, while a ‘future force design principles statement’ was expected by this April.
Those deadlines were subsequently pushed back even further: the strategy document is now reportedly due this month and the future force statement in June.
In between the two, on May 17, will be the Government’s first budget since Chris Hipkins took over as Prime Minister.
Given Little’s comments on the need to expedite the review process – and the fact that the election is scheduled to be held just five months after the budget, on October 17 – it seems plausible that funding decisions will now be based on just the initial strategy document.
In fact, in all likelihood, the decisions have already been made, with the review process simply serving as cover.
New Zealand’s military spending drifted slightly downwards to 1.4 per cent of GDP in 2021, according to figures from the World Bank.
But amidst a new wave of militarisation around the world, there seems little doubt that New Zealand’s spending will soon see a sharp rise.
China’s announcement at the weekend that it will increase its defence spending by an ‘appropriate’ amount will only provide further justification for a boost.
Countries around the Indo-Pacific are lifting military spending: Australia’s defence minister recently promised the country would soon take its ‘biggest step forward’, while India has announced a spending increase of 13 per cent.
A major uptick in the defence budget might seem at odds with Hipkins’ pledge to focus on ‘bread and butter’ domestic issues focused on the cost of living.
But the military spend is likely to be sold at least in part as a social and climate change policy response: in interviews, Little repeatedly spoke of ‘attrition’ in the ranks since the outbreak of Covid-19. He also referred to the difficulties New Zealand’s military would face in responding to a ‘significant disaster recovery exercise’ in the Pacific, pointing to the defence force’s role in New Zealand in the aftermath of Cyclone Gabrielle.
This brings us to the foreign minister, Nanaia Mahuta, who visited Japan and Singapore last week.
While ‘strengthening economic partnerships’ was the stated aim of Mahuta’s trip, in reality the mission rather predictably ended up being far more about hard security. As if to underline this, Mahuta met in Singapore not with her foreign minister counterpart, Vivian Balakrishnan, but with Singaporean defence minister Ng Eng Hen.
And earlier, during Nanaia Mahuta’s visit to Tokyo, New Zealand signed on to a rather hawkish joint statement with Japan on cooperation in the Pacific that agreed the region should remain ‘inclusive, stable and prosperous, and free from foreign interference and coercion’ – phrasing clearly aimed at China.
But the threats posed by climate change were also repeatedly mentioned in the document as rationale for a ‘family first approach to peace and security’ in the Pacific.
The most specific outcome from Mahuta’s trip to Tokyo was an undertaking by New Zealand and Japan to speed up discussions on an intelligence-sharing agreement that was signalled during Jacinda Ardern’s own visit to Japan last year.
Japan recently announced plans to double its defence budget to reach the NATO target of 2 per cent of GDP by 2027 – a decision that will see $NZ500 billion in spending in the next five years and will make Japan the third-biggest military spender in the world.
Interestingly, the Japanese foreign ministry’s account of Mahuta’s meeting with her Japanese counterpart, Yoshimasa Hayashi, described Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea as a group of ‘like-minded countries’.
Japan-New Zealand Foreign Ministers’ Meeting#JapanNewZealand
https://t.co/uMCRq5JDp2 pic.twitter.com/1teC6YSmnH— MOFA of Japan (@MofaJapan_en) February 28, 2023
This suggests that the ‘AP4’ format from last year’s NATO summit in Spain may endure and could yet turn into something of a mini-alliance. Leaders from all four Asia-Pacific (or ‘AP’) countries were invited guests at the NATO gathering in Madrid and held a separate meeting on the event’s sidelines.
While there are many geopolitical uncertainties, one thing is clear.
Across the Indo-Pacific, countries are rearming.
And New Zealand looks set to join the pack.
Geoffrey Miller is the Democracy Project’s geopolitical analyst and writes on current New Zealand foreign policy and related geopolitical issues. He has lived in Germany and the Middle East and is a learner of Arabic and Russian. He is currently working on a PhD on New Zealand’s relations with the Gulf states.
Other items of interest and importance today
PUBLIC SERVICE CONSULTANTS AND CONTRACTORS
Audrey Young (Herald): Consultants and contractors – where the money was spent in the public service (paywalled)
Anna Whyte (Stuff): $1.2 billion spent by core public service on consultants and contractors a year – where does the money go?
Russel Palmer (RNZ): Hipkins defends public sector spending on consultants, contractors
Jem Traylen (BusinessDesk): Can $400m be trimmed from the government’s contractors and consultants bill? (paywalled)
Esther Taunton (Stuff): What is a consultant, anyway?
NATIONAL PARTY POLICY ANNOUNCEMENTS, CHILDCARE
Chris Trotter (Interest): Settling for the ‘least worst’
Gordon Campbell: On childcare as an election bribe
Glenn McConnell (Stuff): The pressure’s on, but neither Labour or National will commit to free childcare
Felix Desmarais (1News): Nats to regulate ECE on ‘quality not box-ticking’
Mike Hosking (Newstalk ZB): National have the key to an election win
ODT Editorial: National’s well-placed lob
Herald Editorial: National’s recipe for struggling families (paywalled)
David Farrar (Patreon): Why National’s ECE tax credits is such smart politics (paywalled)
Tova O’Brien (Today FM): Is there such a thing as becoming too centrist?
Dileepa Fonseka (BusinessDesk): Plane sailing: Luxon pitches to fix things (paywalled)
Martyn Bradbury (Daily Blog): The real problem with consultants and why child care should be free
1News: National’s proposed childcare rebate won’t work – ACT
Zarina Hewlett (Today FM): National’s childcare policy will see cutbacks from ‘go nowhere’ projects, says Nicola Willis
ROB CAMPBELL PUBLIC SERVICE
Jonathan Milne (Newsroom): Sacked health chair used up at least $125k in fees in three months
Rob Campbell (Stuff): Public service bosses of ‘Pyongponeke’ forget who they are supposed to serve
Adam Pearse (Herald): Pharmac/ACC chairman, former Labour minister Steve Maharey in hot water for public political comments
RNZ: PM says Pharmac chair impartiality issue ‘quite a contrast’ to Rob Campbell
Jenna Lynch (Newshub): Steve Maharey: Another public boss gets political – what’s the difference this time?
Simon Wilson (Herald): Why they sacked Rob Campbell and why that has to stop (paywalled)
The Blue Review: Rob Campbell, my part in his downfall | A chat with Gwynn Compton
Ian McCrae (BusinessDesk): How many unionists does it take to screw up health? Two
ELECTION
Martyn Bradbury (Daily Blog): The possible surprises of the 2023 election
Phil Pennington (RNZ): Voter targeting tools could impact electoral integrity, disinformation expert says
Toby Manhire (Spinoff): ‘Fixing is not austerity’: Chlöe Swarbrick on Wayne Brown, cuts and seeking re-election
TRANSPORT
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): Government confirms change to previous transport priorities, now working on ’emergency style’ plan after Cyclone Gabrielle
Thomas Coughlan (Herald): Government u-turns on transport plan for cycleways and bus lanes, blaming Cyclone Gabrielle
Matthew Hooton (Patreon): Dead cat? (paywalled)
Felix Desmarais (1News): U-turn on emissions-focused transport plan, focus on cyclone recovery
Richard Harman (Politik): Hipkins: “Clearly, there’s been a change in leadership” (paywalled)
RNZ: Emissions still in mix but weather-proofing transport network crucial – Hipkins
RNZ: Hipkins changes transport focus away from agreed emissions reduction
Anna Whyte (Stuff): ‘Emergency style’ transport plan worked on by govt in wake of Cyclone Gabrielle
Heather du Plessis-Allan (Newstalk ZB): U-turn for Transport Minister
No Right Turn: Why we can’t have nice things
Jessica Lynch and Jamie Ensor (Newshub): Government to walk back draft plan prioritising cycle lanes ahead of road maintenance, Newshub understands
Kate Green (RNZ): Waka Kotahi concludes half-price fares not enough to lure more public transport users
John MacDonald (Newstalk ZB): Transport Minister’s huffing and puffing won’t fix roads
Georgina Campbell (Herald): Kaitaki ferry out for two weeks, Interislander disables Facebook comments
Herald: Maritime Transport Union calls for ‘love’ for Cook Strait ferry staff amid disruptions
RNZ: Growing numbers turn to car share services in Wellington
Lloyd Burr (Today FM): Auckland Transport has been broken for too long
EDUCATION, RICHARD DAWKINS, MĀTAURANGA MĀORI
Chris Trotter (Daily Blog): The Revolution Has Begun
Dave Armstrong (Stuff): Dr Dawkins and his misreading of Mātauranga Māori
Don Brash: Richard Dawkins is surely right
Melisa chase (Spinoff): Are we there yet? The slow inclusion of mātauranga Māori in schools
John Gerritsen (RNZ): Some teachers agree Qualifications Authority made trial NCEA tests too hard
John Gerritsen (RNZ): Agencies dispute over how to solve low literacy and numeracy scores
EXTREME WEATHER, INFRASTRUCTURE
Peter Davis (Herald): Our long-term problems keep catching up on us (paywalled)
Willie Jackson (Herald): Targeting cyclone funding to Māori as racist is ugly politics
1News: Findings of review into Auckland flood response delayed
Stephen Forbes (Local Democracy Reporting): Auckland water agency estimates price tag of flood damage at over $250m
1News: More money for cyclone-hit farmers and growers – Govt
RNZ: Cyclone fund for farmers and growers gets $26m expansion
RNZ: Auckland floods, Cyclone Gabrielle to cost insurance industry more than $1b
RNZ: Muriwai residents could wait 6 months before red-stickered property reassessment call
RNZ: Probe finds warehouse designs have multiple design flaws and are safety risk
LOCAL GOVERNMENT, THREE WATERS
Bernard Orsman (Herald): Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown’s cost-cutting budget triggers early job losses with more to come (paywalled)
Todd Niall (Stuff): Job cuts process begins as Auckland Council looks for $295m budget savings
Todd Niall (Stuff): Auckland and the risks of change overload
David Williams (Newsroom): Christchurch sleepwalks towards partial asset sales
Brent Edwards (NBR): Water Users’ Group wants Three Waters legislation withdrawn (paywalled)
Erin Gourley (Stuff): $8 million of pipes funding not provided in Wellington City Council plan
Hamish McNeilly (Stuff): Back to the drawing board as Dunedin council cannot decide on mayoral portraits
Alisha Evans (Local Democracy Reporting): Price increases planned for Tauranga’s council pools and hall hire
HOUSING, BUILDING INDUSTRY
Rob Stock (Stuff): Kiwis pay home loan interest rates others ‘wouldn’t touch with a barge pole’
Damien Venuto (Herald): The Front Page: How much mortgage pain are we in for – and when will interest rates come down? (paywalled)
RNZ: Women still trail men in home ownership stakes
Brent Melville (BusinessDesk): Kiwis track ahead of Aussies in housing co-ownership (paywalled)
Guy Marriage (Newsroom): Let’s end obsession with building poor housing as cheaply as possible
MIke Yardley (Press): Christchurch’s revised housing density plan is palatable, but far from perfect
Matthew Scott (Newsroom): Housing crisis: Queenstown rips at the seams
Miriam Bell (Stuff): Building activity falls for first time since Covid lockdowns
RNZ: Construction sector shows signs of cooling with fall in volume of building work
Zoe Hunter (Herald): Building the next generation: More apprentices needed to meet construction demands (paywalled)
CENSUS
RNZ: 1m and counting: Time ticking on filling in 2023 census
Ashleigh McCaull (RNZ): Iwi-led Census process in rohe makes big difference – Ngāti Wai Trust
David Williams (Newsroom): Trust in census a big issue, survey suggests
Debbie Jamieson (Stuff): Census to miss key data as visitors in short term rentals slip through
Herald: Census 2023 explainer: Everything you need to know
RNZ: Warning over Census scams harvesting information
HEALTH
Lloyd Burr (Today FM): Anatomy of a comms disaster: Pharmac’s Trikafta case
Tom Hunt (Stuff): Not a single fine handed out so far for smoking with kids in cars
Jonine Jancey (Stuff): Sex and lies are used to sell vapes online, even we were surprised at the marketing tactics we found
Tess McClure (Guardian): Make vapes a pharmacy-only drug, say New Zealand health groups
Emile Donovan (Stuff): GPs, anti-smoking charity at odds over vaping proposal
Whena Owen (1News): Q+A: New bill to scrutinise medicine, natural health product claims
Bridie Witton (Stuff): Te Whatu Ora boosts nurses’ pay by thousands but ‘irritation’ remains
RNZ: Covid-19 update: 11,453 new cases, six deaths and 177 in hospital
ENVIRONMENT
James Shaw (Guardian): We can’t afford to choose adaptation over cutting emissions – suggesting otherwise is dangerous
Pattrick Smellie (BusinessDesk): Is bi-partisan support for RMA reform breaking down? (paywalled)
Olivia Wannan (Stuff): Slash and burn: why we should use all that unwanted wood
MEDIA
Martyn Bradbury (Daily Blog): Mediawatch: The problem with Purity of Identity as a media lens in NZ newsrooms
Chris Lynch: RNZ apologises to broadcaster after missing crucial context
Gavin Ellis: Free speech at its best stirring people to anger
Duncan Greive (Spinoff): There’s now Voices for Freedom online radio for people who find The Platform too woke
EMPLOYMENT
Susan Edmunds (Stuff): Minimum wage should be even higher, union says, as inflation erodes increase
Brianna Mcilraith (Stuff): How to ‘quietly quit’ this year without damaging your work reputation
Maria Slade (NBR): Unemployment becoming a foreign concept (paywalled)
RNZ: Working from home: 78 percent of people work remotely some or all of the time
GEORGINA BEYER HAS DIED
1News: Trailblazing MP Georgina Beyer dies aged 65
Glenn McConnell, Piers Fuller and Bess Manson (Stuff): Georgina Beyer, the world’s first openly transgender MP and mayor, has died
RNZ: World’s first openly transgender mayor and MP, Georgina Beyer, has died
Jenna Lynch (Newshub): Georgina Beyer remembered as trailblazer by Prime Minister, Labour’s Rainbow caucus chair
Herald: World’s first openly transgender MP and mayor Georgina Beyer dies aged 65
Guardian: World’s first openly transgender MP, Georgina Beyer, dies in New Zealand aged 65
FOREIGN AFFAIRS, DEFENCE, AND TRADE
Samuel Hume (Jacobin): New Zealand is escalating tensions between China and the West
David Farrar: Mahuta says no to Ukraine
Jayden Holmes (Today FM): International Analyst wary of Tik Tok ban in United States, European Union
Pete McKenzie (North & South): In Our Defence
