Political Roundup: Jacinda Ardern’s Asia trip rekindles New Zealand’s independent foreign policy
Analysis by Geoffrey Miller.
New Zealand’s independent foreign policy is back. That’s a key underlying message from Jacinda Ardern’s trip this week to Southeast Asia.
The New Zealand Prime Minister attended the East Asia Summit in Cambodia over the weekend. She will head to Thailand for the APEC leaders’ meeting later in the week.
In between, Ardern is also making a surprise four-day bilateral visit to Vietnam.
As has become customary for much of Ardern’s foreign travel, the Vietnam portion of this week’s trip is being branded as a ‘trade mission’, a strategy deployed in part to deflect potential domestic criticism of the PM for spending too much time on the diplomatic circuit abroad.
Ardern all but admitted in interviews prior to embarking on her Asia trip that her no-show at the COP27 summit in Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh was driven by an unwillingness to spend too much time outside New Zealand.
While it is certainly true that there is a strong trade foundation to New Zealand’s ties with Vietnam – the country is New Zealand’s 14th biggest export market – there is probably a little more to it than that.
So far in 2022, most of Jacinda Ardern’s international travel has been focused on countries in the Western-led camp that has been vocal in condemning Russia for its war on Ukraine.
In April, Ardern’s first travel outside New Zealand since early 2020 was pointedly to Singapore and Japan – two of the few Asian countries that had sanctioned Russia.
Trips to the United Kingdom, United States (to meet Joe Biden at the White House), Spain (as an invited guest at the NATO summit), Belgium (to sign a free trade deal with the EU) and Australia then followed.
But by mid-year, there seemed to be a realisation inside Ardern’s Labour Government that New Zealand had tacked too far towards the West in the first six months of 2022.
New Zealand’s increasingly pro-Western foreign policy had begun to irk China. The warning signs from Beijing led Ardern to recalibrate in speeches in July and August, in which she emphasised New Zealand’s traditional independent foreign policy and sought to put a little more daylight between Wellington and Washington.
However, these recalibration speeches were themselves delivered to Western audiences in London, Sydney and Auckland.
Until now, the shift had not really been reflected in the Prime Minister’s travel schedule, which in recent months focused on the Pacific and also included a trip to London (for the Queen’s funeral) and New York (for the UN General Assembly).
The return of in-person gatherings for both the East Asia Summit (EAS) and APEC formats is particularly welcome news for New Zealand, which as a small country receives fewer such multilateral opportunities.
Moreover, amidst heightened geopolitical polarisation, the broadly inclusive nature of both the EAS and APEC – which brings together Russia, China, the United States and many smaller members from around the Pacific Rim – is now almost priceless.
And when viewed through a trade lens alone, APEC will give New Zealand’s Prime Minister a particularly invaluable opportunity to develop connections with leaders who otherwise might not receive the attention from Wellington that they deserve.
This is particularly true for Latin America, which is represented at APEC by Chile, Mexico and Peru.
Of the three, Mexico currently holds the greatest significance for New Zealand: trade in both directions is surging. The country now sits comfortably inside New Zealand’s top 30 export markets, in 26th place.
Ardern has yet to visit Latin America since becoming PM in 2017, although she did hold a sideline meeting with Chilean President Gabriel Boric at the UN General Assembly in September. In June, Ardern also dispatched her education minister, Chris Hipkins, to Chile and Brazil to promote New Zealand’s international education sector which had suffered greatly from border restrictions during the pandemic.
Jacinda Ardern’s international popularity – which has only increased during the Covid-19 era – means that she can easily secure sideline meetings with leaders at bigger gatherings.
Furthermore, the summits in Cambodia and Thailand – and especially the side trip to Vietnam – provide the Prime Minister with her best opportunity yet to learn about the foreign policy stances being taken by non-Western countries.
Vietnam is a case in point.
Hanoi has long maintained friendly ties with Moscow, a friendship built on Russia’s support and solidarity for the like-minded, communist Vietnam during the Cold War.
In 2022, this strong relationship has seen Hanoi refrain from criticising Moscow’s war on Ukraine (at least in public) – and led Vietnam to abstain on key votes in March and October which condemned Russia in the UN General Assembly.
Moreover, Vietnam’s Nguyen Phu Trong – the country’s communist leader – recently chose to visit China for his first foreign trip since 2019.
Trong’s visit to Beijing was the first by a foreign leader since Xi Jinping received a third term at October’s Communist Party Congress. The symbolism and warmth of the trip showed that Vietnam will not be easily swayed by US pressure to throw its lot in with the West, despite the existence of genuine tensions between Hanoi and Beijing over the South China Sea.
As if to avoid any doubt, Trong called Vietnam’s relationship with China his ‘top priority’ while in Beijing and firmly ruled out joining military alliances – a pledge which would have been music to Xi’s ears.
The bonhomie in Beijing represented a setback of sorts for Washington, which had offered a carrot to Hanoi by including it in the US’s new Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) initiative earlier in the year. The IPEF is vague and uninspiring overall, but a focus on ‘supply chain resilience’ is an indication that its main purpose is to be a vehicle that challenges China’s economic dominance.
Still, the IPEF involvement – and Vietnam’s coolness towards Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and new Global Security Initiative (GSI) – shows that Hanoi is likely to continue to forge a foreign policy that walks a tightrope between both Washington and Beijing.
In Vietnam, this strategy is sometimes referred to ‘bamboo diplomacy’ – tough when required, but flexible when needed.
While in Vietnam this week, Jacinda Ardern may want to give some thought to Vietnam’s approach.
After all, there are some remarkable similarities between Vietnam’s bamboo diplomacy and New Zealand’s own ‘independent foreign policy’ positioning that seeks to keep both China – its biggest trading partner by far – and traditional Western partners on side.
New Zealand’s greatest foreign policy challenge is threading this geopolitical needle.
The good news is that other countries in the Indo-Pacific – and further afield – are facing this challenge too.
Jacinda Ardern can learn from them.
Geoffrey Miller is the Democracy Project’s geopolitical analyst and writes on current New Zealand foreign policy and related geopolitical issues. He has lived in Germany and the Middle East and is a learner of Arabic and Russian.
Further reading on international relations and the PM at the East Asia Summit
Claire Trevett (Herald): PM Jacinda Ardern at the East Asia Summit: A call to do more in Myanmar, flags concern about China
Benedict Collins (1News): ‘Sober’ East Asia Summit concludes
Claire Trevett (Herald): The PM’s hustle – Jacinda Ardern’s sharp elbow work to get face time with US President Joe Biden (paywalled)
Thomas Manch (Stuff): Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern ‘optimistic’ as leaders discuss worsening world crises
Jo Moir (Newsroom): No shortage of ‘stains on the region’ at East Asia Summit
Claire Trevett (Herald): PM Jacinda Ardern arrives for East Asia Summit: ‘Storm clouds’ over region
Gyles Beckford (RNZ): Myanmar govt’s executions ‘a stain on region’ – Jacinda Ardern
RNZ: PM Jacinda Ardern hopes to drive regional consensus at Asian summits
1News: Govt announces upgrade to ASEAN trade deal
Amelia Wade (Newshub): Myanmar’s executions ‘a stain on our region’, Jacinda Ardern says, as week of southeast Asian mega meetings begins
Thomas Manch (Stuff): PM Jacinda Ardern sits down with world leaders for East Asia Summit; Putin a no show
Amelia Wade (Newshub): Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern jets off to Southeast Asia, racking up the air miles for summit season
Jamie Gray (Herald): What Xi Jinping’s re-election in China means for NZ Inc (paywalled)
Nicholas Khoo (Stuff): Why NZ’s morality narrative on Ukraine doesn’t work
Other items of interest and importance today
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Jamie Ensor (Newshub): 2023 election: The key parties, latest polling, main issues, cost of living
Audrey Young (Herald): Luxon’s first year as leader: Tackling Ardern and her ‘career politician’ colleagues (paywalled)
Claire Trevett (Herald): Polls deliver cold, hard reality for the Labour Party and Jacinda Ardern – but is Winston Peters benefiting? (paywalled)
Anna Whyte (Stuff): ‘Hell of a rush to get stuff done’: Should elections be held every four years?
Peter Wilson (RNZ): Week in Politics: A poll, a reappointment and an interesting by-election line up
The Standard: Why is Labour such a hard sell now?
Leena Tailor (Women’s Weekly/Herald): From migrant to minister: Priyanca Radhakrishnan’s power move
Steven Cowan: Trickle down feminism
Andrew Kirton (Herald): Speculation begins on the date of the next NZ election (paywalled)
Giles Dexter (RNZ): Under-fire Labour turns sights on bank profits and fuel
Phil Smith (RNZ): Reimagining Parliament
Ellie McKenzie (Transparency International): New Zealand lobbying oversight lacking in comparison to similar countries
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1News: Three Waters: National’s policy to be revealed closer to election
Thomas Cranmer: The Three Waters select committee reports back
Glenn McConnell (Stuff): Everyone agrees to change Three Waters, but no one agrees what the changes should be
Jonathan Milne (Newsroom): The woman whose impassioned plea won over Three Waters MPs
Shane Reti (Herald): Three Waters legislation may be rammed through under urgency (paywalled)
James Perry (Māori TV): Changes to Three Waters reform but co-governance to stay
Rebecca Howard (BusinessDesk): Mahuta welcomes 3 waters report (paywalled)
Brent Edwards (NBR): Three Waters reform to go through largely unchanged (paywalled)
Adam Pearse (Herald): Three Waters co-governance retained after 88,000 public submissions
RNZ: Three Waters: Government agrees to changes after Select Committee recommendations
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RNZ: Reserve Bank created ‘perfect storm’ for inequality – Bernard Hickey
Damien Grant (Stuff): Bank profits aren’t the problem, the Reserve Bank is
Herald: Big power companies delivering excess dividends in the billions, new study claims
Luke Malpass (Stuff): Adrian Orr, Grant Robertson, National and the price of money
Bernard Hickey: A post-mortem on an inter-generational and institutional tragedy (paywalled)
Tom Hunt (Stuff): Workers needing food help the new normal as Wellington prices soar
Heather du Plessis-Allan (Herald): Reserve Bank governor needs to wake up to his role (paywalled)
Fran O’Sullivan (Herald): Less fire, more ice-water please, governor (paywalled)
Steven Joyce (Herald): Grant Robertson risks undermining Reserve Bank independence (paywalled)
Eric Crampton (Stuff): We all turn a little bit crazy when prices rise in a crisis
John Roughan (Herald): There’s more to inflation than wages (paywalled)
Hillmarè Schulze (NBR): Māori households are getting poorer despite increased Govt funds (paywalled)
Debbie Ngarewa-Packer (Herald): It’s time to break up the old boys’ network and give land back
Shauni James (Herald): Rotorua Salvation Army Foodbank records 89pc surge in demand ahead
Matt Cowley (Herald): Is the Fair Pay Agreement fair play? (paywalled)
Calida Stuart-Menteath and Hamish McNicol (NBR): Windfall taxing big banks’ profit is not the answer (paywalled)
Andrea Vance (Stuff): Air New Zealand no longer delivers the service it sells, nor can it handle it when things go wrong
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John Minto (Daily Blog): Hundreds of millions in state house land sold by Labour in the middle of a housing catastrophe
Catherine Hubbard (Stuff): Motel owners at the coal face of the housing shortage
Sonya Bateson (Herald): Stop the blame game on emergency housing – we need action
Miriam Bell (Stuff): Rent increases are stabilising, but at a high level
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Virginia Fallon (Stuff): The whole tooth: Pliers, shame and the biting cost of dental care in New Zealand
Newshub: Dentist visibly emotional as he spells out consequences Kiwis face when they don’t visit dentist
Aaron Dahmen (Herald): ‘We have to do better’ – Government considering paid placements for nursing students
Adam Pearse (Herald): ‘Erosion of investment’: How the latest addition to Te Whatu Ora’s board sees the future of healthcare
Phil Pennington (RNZ): Four major hospital upgrade projects in South Island face uncertainty
RNZ: Emergency department pressures: Te Whatu Ora ‘doing what we can’
Janine Rankin (Stuff): Private hospital theatre promises surgery for more public patients
Samantha Heath (Herald): Aged care in critical need (paywalled)
EDUCATION
Erin Gourley and Gianina Schwanecke (Stuff): Principals warn literacy and numeracy changes could ‘provoke a crisis’
Emma Hatton (Newsroom): Pleas for complete overhaul of teacher aide funding system
Anna Whyte (Stuff): Primary teachers to decide on pay offer, union labels it ‘well short’
Greg Newbold: English literacy essential
Jerry Coyne: Shamanism makes comeback in New Zealand
MEDIA
Colin Peacock (RNZ): Herald’s bid to short-circuit short-termism and tribalism
Hayden Donnell (RNZ): Annoying both sides doesn’t equal getting it right
Steve Braunias (Herald): The Secret Diary of Plunket and Farrier (paywalled)
Grant Duncan: Newshub’s biased poll reporting
Eric Crampton: Watching Mediawatch
CLIMATE
Timothy Welch (The Conversation): Why giving the Commerce Commission the power to set ‘fair’ fuel prices is unfair on NZ’s climate targets
1News: Shaw on $20m climate payout: NZ has ‘duty to support’ Pacific
Rod Oram (Newsroom): NZ absent on COP 27 agriculture day
Hamish McNicol (NBR): Climate reporting and the law of unintended consequences (paywalled)
OTHER
Philip Matthews (Stuff): Jim Anderton: Hero, rebel or both?
Michelle Duff (Stuff): NZ childcare affordability is the worst in the world, Government discovers
Simon Wilson (Herald): Inside the Auckland mayoral race: How did Wayne Brown win so well and Efeso Collins lose so badly? (paywalled)
Deborah Morris (Stuff): Police error sinks Parliament protester’s trespass charge, exposing loophole
Matthew Slaughter (Stuff): Difficult Conversations: Are we becoming reluctant to speak our minds?
Clive Bibby (Kiwiblog): Let’s have a debate based on the facts
Greg Bruce (Herald): Millennials aren’t real. Nor are Boomers, Zoomers or Gen X-ers (paywalled)
