Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Karl Glazebrook, Director & Distinguished Professor, Centre for Astrophysics & Supercomputing, Swinburne University of Technology

Since its launch on Christmas day, astronomers have eagerly followed the complex deployment and unfurling of NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope – the largest to ever take to the skies.

Right around the time this article is published, it’s expected Webb will have reached a place called the Earth-Sun “second Lagrange point”, or “L2”. This is a point in space about 1.5 million kilometres away from Earth (in the opposite direction from the Sun) where the gravity from both the Sun and Earth help to keep an orbiting satellite balanced in motion.

Now the astronomical community – including my team of Swinburne University astronomers – is preparing for a new epoch of major discoveries.

30 years and US$10 billion

In 2012, I wrote an article for The Conversation looking forward to the launch of Webb, and reminiscing about the amazing early days of its predecessor, the Hubble Space Telescope.

Read more:
Hubble, Webb and the search for First Light galaxies

Back then, Webb’s planned launch date was in 2018. And when the project was originally conceived in the 1990s, the goal was to launch before 2010. Why did it take nearly 30 years, and more than US$10 billion (roughly A$14 billion), to get Webb off the ground?

First, it’s the largest telescope ever put into space, with a gold-coated mirror 6.5m in diameter (compared with Hubble’s 2.4m mirror). With size comes complexity, as the entire structure needed to be folded to fit inside the nose cone of an Ariane rocket.

Second, there were two major engineering marvels to accomplish with Webb. For a large telescope to produce the sharpest images possible, the mirror’s surface needs to be aligned along a curve with extreme precision. For Webb this means unfolding and positioning the 18 hexagonal segments of the primary mirror, plus a secondary mirror, to a precision of 25 billionths of a metre.

Also, Webb will be observing infrared light, so it must be kept incredibly cold (roughly -233℃) to maximise its sensitivity. This means it must be kept far away from Earth, which is a source of heat and light. It must also be completely protected from the Sun – achieved by a 20m multilayered reflective sunshield.

All of Webb’s major spacecraft deployments, including the unfurling of the primary mirror and sunshield, were completed on January 8. The entire process involved more than 300 single points of failure (mechanisms that had only once chance to work). The remaining tiny motions will take place over the next few months.

The main mission

Webb’s primary mission will be to witness the birth of the first stars and galaxies in the early Universe. As the light from these very faint galaxies travels across the vast gulf of space, and 13.8 billion years of time, it gets stretched by the overall expansion of the Universe in a process we call “cosmological redshift”.

This stretching means what started out as extremely energetic ultraviolet radiation from young, hot and massive stars will be received by Webb as infrared light. This is why its mirrors are coated in gold: compared with silver or aluminium, gold is a better reflector of infrared light and red light.

Webb will see much farther into the infrared than Hubble could. It’s also up to a million times more sensitive than ground-based telescopes, where the light from distant galaxies is drowned out by the infrared emission of Earth’s own hot atmosphere.

Because of these previous technological limitations, the first billion years of cosmic history has barely been explored. We don’t know when or how the first stars formed. This is a complex question as stars produce heavy elements when they die. These elements pollute the interstellar gas in galaxies and change how this gas behaves and collapses to form later generations of stars.

All current star formation we can observe, such as in the Milky Way, is from enriched interstellar gas. We haven’t yet seen how stars form in pristine gas, which is without any heavy elements – as such a state hasn’t existed for more than 13 billion years.

But we think formation from pristine gas likely had a large effect on the properties of the first stellar populations.

A deep space observatory

In addition to studying the early Universe, Webb will be a NASA “Great Observatory” and will support a diversity of other projects.

It will allow scientists to peer into regions obscured by dust, such as the centres of galaxies where supermassive black holes lurk, or regions of intense star formation in our galaxy and others. Webb will also be sensitive to the coldest objects, including very low mass stars, and planets orbiting other stars within the Milky Way.

One big improvement on Hubble is that Webb will be well-equipped for spectroscopy, dissecting light into its component wavelengths. This will let us measure the cosmic redshift of galaxies precisely, and figure out what elements they’re made of.

Closer to home, Webb will help us find molecules such as water, ammonia, carbon dioxide (and many others) within the solar system, the Milky Way and nearby galaxies. It will be able to see these in the atmospheres of planets around nearby stars, which is particularly exciting for the search for extraterrestrial life.

Read more:
The James Webb Space Telescope will map the atmosphere of exoplanets

Astronomers await with anticipation for the first data to be collected in the next few months. While the most dramatic and risky mechanical motions have been completed, the telescope continues to move, and the mirror segments are making tiny nanometre-sized motions to bring it into a focus. This will take many weeks as the telescope cools to its operating temperature.

For myself, perhaps the most exciting aspect to look forward to is the completely unknown. With Webb, we’ll be observing a previously murky cosmic era, when physical conditions were very different to those in the modern Universe.

The history of astronomy suggests we can expect paradigm-shifting discoveries.

Karl Glazebrook receives funding from The Australian Research Council and W.M. Keck Observatory.

– ref. NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope has reached its destination, 1.5 million km from Earth. Here’s what happens next – https://theconversation.com/nasas-james-webb-space-telescope-has-reached-its-destination-1-5-million-km-from-earth-heres-what-happens-next-175327

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Lowe, Chair in Contemporary History, Deakin University

The issue of when or whether to celebrate Australia Day seems to have become stuck in a loop of fierce debate without resolution.

There are those who want to mark January 26 as the start of modern Australia, while others view it as the start of systematic dispossession of Indigenous Australians.

What does the broader public think? A new national survey shows at the moment, the majority of Australians want the day left as it is. But it also suggests a groundswell for change is in the works.

Our study

During November 2021, we polled a representative, random sample of more than 5,000 Australians as part of the Deakin Contemporary History Survey.

In contrast to previous surveys, which have focused on what to call Australia Day, we asked a more general question – is January 26 the right date for something called Australia Day?

We also asked other questions about respondents’ knowledge of and interest in Australian history. Our collective understanding of history can explain why some stories seem more important than others. For example, consider how frequently, and in how many different forms, we learn of Australian military history due to ANZAC Day.

Our findings

Overall, 60% of our respondents want to continue celebrating “Australia Day” on January 26.

But the generational differences are significant. More than half (53%) of millennials (those born between 1986 and 2002) think we should not celebrate Australia Day on January 26.

By contrast, 74% of those over 75 said “disagree” or “strongly disagree” to any change with 70% of baby boomers (born 1946–65) also against change. The generation X cohort (born 1966–195) was also decisively against change (64%), revealing a gulf between millennials and the rest of those surveyed.

One possible explanation for this is older people being more resistant to change. Their familiarity with Australia Day as an established end-of-summer day for social gathering is possibly stronger than their interpretation of the day’s historical significance or a political stance on the debate.

What does this mean?

These results also mirror other polls (with smaller sample sizes of about 1,200), including one by Roy Morgan in January 2021 and another by CoreData released over the weekend.

Younger Australians are more readily accepting of marriage equality, gender diversity and other kinds of progressive social change.

Recognising and responding to past injustices or complicated histories is familiar terrain for them. Rap group A.B. Original’s call-out of Australia Day, “January 26th,” came 16th place in Triple J’s Hottest 100 songs of 2016.

In 2018, the Hottest 100 was moved from the traditional January 26, after listeners expressed discomfort with holding the celebration on this date.

Other differences

Beyond generational differences, we also found gender and geography matter when it comes to attitudes about Australia Day.

Women were significantly more likely than men to want to change the date of Australia Day (43% compared to 33% men).

This is in keeping with studies showing women are more progressive than men.

Meanwhile, about 66% of those living outside capitals cities were opposed to changing Australia Day. This reduces to 60% opposed to change in capitals. This is driven by boomers in regional areas, who are significantly more opposed than boomers in cities.

More history, please

Importantly for the Australia Day question, we also asked about Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander history. More than 80% of those polled agreed more of this history should be taught in schools. Here there is less of a generation gap: almost 90% of millennials want more of this education, for boomers, it is nearly 80%.

Women and non-binary interviewees were still more likely to agree than men, by eight percentage points, and those in cities were six points ahead of those in regions.

But Australians are relatively united in their enthusiasm for greater teaching of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander history.

Change is coming

We suggest our findings indicate a slow burn to change the date, based on strong foundations. While there remain differences among Australians, the combination of younger generational desire for change to Australia Day and strong enthusiasm among the broader population for more Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander history may suggest that change is not so far off.

Read more:
Why Australia Day survives, despite revealing a nation’s rifts and wounds

This slow pace for change probably suits the major political parties (but not so much the Greens).

A growing appetite for change may also indicate a discomfort with celebrating “Australia Day” at all. Luke Pearson, Gamilaroi man and founder of media organisation IndigenousX opposes simply changing the date. As he explained in 2019, there is still too little recognition of the harmful impact of colonisation and too little justice for Indigenous peoples for there to be any day to celebrate.

So, change the country first and then we can talk about a date.

David Lowe receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Andrew Singleton receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Gandel Foundation.

Joanna Cruickshank receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. 60% of Australians want to keep Australia Day on January 26, but those under 35 disagree – https://theconversation.com/60-of-australians-want-to-keep-australia-day-on-january-26-but-those-under-35-disagree-175503

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tanja Dreher, Associate Professor, UNSW

First Nations people generally refer to January 26 as the beginning of invasion and subsequent dispossession of Country. It marks the start of much violence and 234 years of resistance.

Every year, as “Australia Day” nears, there is a sense of foreboding among First Nations people, which is widely expressed on social media. The lead-up to the day is always accompanied by high levels of confrontation and racism, especially online.

The mainstream media can fuel harmful debates, such as the comments about the 2019 Invasion Day marches by Kerri-Anne Kennerley on breakfast television that prompted protests outside Channel 10 and complaints to the regulator.

First Nations media, on the other hand, provide information from Indigenous communities, journalists and experts that better reflects what is happening in response to events like “Australia Day”.

Indigenous media provide a wide range of coverage and programming on and leading up to the day. From community radio live broadcasts of Invasion Day speakers to NITV’s week of dedicated programming #AlwaysWasAlwaysWillBe, First Nations media present self-determination in action.

Recent changes to what January 26 represents

In recent years, there has been a significant push across the continent to change the date as a way of recognising it is not a day of celebration for First Nations peoples.

In 2017, Triple J announced it would move the Hottest 100 music countdown, which had always been on Australia Day. They did so after consultations with listeners and a poll of 65,000 people, in which a significant number voted in favour of moving the countdown to another day.

Also that year, Fremantle’s city council decided it would replace its usual Australia Day celebrations with a “One Day” celebration on January 28 out of respect for First Nations people. The Darebin, Yarra and Moreland councils in Naarm (Melbourne) did the same.

In 2019, Sydney’s Inner West council encouraged residents to attend the Yabun festival instead of local Australia Day celebrations.

First Nations people and growing numbers of allies attend Invasion Day rallies on January 26, with the resurgent campaign to stop Black deaths in custody increasingly at the forefront.

First Nations media have contributed to the growing awareness of issues like this, which disproportionately affect Indigenous people and communities. First Nations media also speak to the strength and tenacity of Indigenous people.

Read more:
Media inclusion of Indigenous peoples is increasing but there is still room for improvement

Sovereign voices on the airwaves

The First Nations media sector is extensive and vibrant. Like Aboriginal community-controlled legal and medical services, Indigenous community broadcasting emerged from political struggles for self-determination in the 1970s and ‘80s. Today, there are more than 130 Indigenous community-controlled radio stations across the continent.

Community radio is a bedrock of First Nations media and provides one of the easiest and most accessible ways to hear a diverse range of sovereign First Nations voices — on every day of the year, not just January 26.

A look at some of what’s available this week and beyond

Invasion Day events

Koori Radio will present a livestream from the Yabun festival on Gadigal Country (Sydney). Now in its 20th year, it celebrates First Nations people’s survival and resilience.

Meeanjin (Brisbane) station Triple A Murri Country presents the Original 100 “Always Was Always Will Be” countdown. This features music and songs that articulate the histories, experiences, struggles and strengths of First Nations peoples.

In the lead up to the annual Share the Spirit Festival in Naarm (Melbourne), 3KND showcases conversations with Indigenous artists and performers.

3CR features annual special programming by Indigenous broadcasters, live coverage of speeches from the Naarm rally, and news from local and interstate Survival/Invasion Day events and concerts.

Lastly, there are hourly Indigenous news bulletins broadcast nationally via the National Indigenous Radio Service.

Online streaming for every day

The online media platform Indigitube (also available as an app) hosts a smorgasbord of First Nations music, news, interviews, special features and more.

Indigitube also streams content from almost 30 contributing stations, including:

• Ngaarda radio

• TSIMA Radio

• PAW radio

• Bumma Bippera

• CAAMA radio (which has been on the air for over 40 years. CAAMA is part of one of the longest-running and largest Aboriginal media organisations in the country).

Find your local Indigenous station here or tune in online via station websites.

Blak podcasts

A few podcasts that provide a First Nations perspective of what “Australia Day” really means are:

• Frontier War Stories from Boe Spearim

• 232: The Last Day of Freedom from Radio Skid Row’s Lorna Munro.

• Take it Blak Episode 1 January 26 hosted by journalists Jack Latimore (@LatimoreJack) and Rae Johnston, featuring podcaster Spearim, researcher Clare Land, professor Marcia Langton, and feminist writer Celeste Liddle.

First Nations voices across media

Beyond the extensive community radio sector, Indigenous voices are centred in diverse forms of First Nations media.

The Koori Mail is a fortnightly national Indigenous newspaper wholly owned by five Bundjalung Aboriginal community organisations. This platform aims to give Indigenous Australians a voice often missing in mainstream media. There is the Koori Mail print and online editions, and also the podcasts Koori Mail News and The Big Dorrie.

IndigenousX is an online platform and rotating Twitter handle (@IndigenousX) showcasing a wide diversity of First Nations voices. Founder and CEO Luke Pearson has shifted the focus from #changethedate to #changethenation.

The IndigenousX Twitter host this week is Spearim of Triple A Murri Country. This Invasion Day, the IndigenousX website also features young First Nations contributors, alongside regular authors and an ongoing article collection debunking myths about Invasion Day.

First Nations journalists are also increasingly setting the agenda in some mainstream media outlets, including Lorena Allam, a Walkley award-winning Indigenous Affairs editor for The Guardian Australia.

The Guardian Australia has a track record of expanding boundaries in Indigenous news by providing space for First Nations opinions and voices every day and covering protests and rallies as they happen.

Over at The Age, Latimore is the Indigenous affairs journalist. He recently covered attempts by alt-right groups to hijack the Aboriginal Tent Embassy in Canberra, the longest-running protest for Indigenous land rights, sovereignty and self-determination in the world, as it approaches its 50th anniversary on January 26.

Read more:
First Nations kids make up about 20% of missing children, but get a fraction of the media coverage

NITV offers dedicated programming from January 19-26 under the slogan, #AlwaysWasAlwaysWillBe, which dates back to the Aboriginal land rights movement in far-western New South Wales in the 1970s.

NITV’s programming includes a live broadcast of the 2022 sunrise ceremony, rolling news reports, a film premiere, online content and its flagship current affairs programs The Point and Insight.

So, if you want to hear the conversation and change the nation, #ChangeTheStation and listen up to Black media.

Tanja Dreher receives funding from the Australian Research Council. Research that contributed to the development of this article was funded by an ARC Future Fellowship grant (https://www.listeninginproject.org/).

Poppy de Souza works for Tanja Dreher, and has received funding from Dreher’s ARC Future Fellowship.

Bronwyn Carlson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. For an Indigenous perspective on ‘Australia Day’, here’s a quick guide to First Nations media platforms – https://theconversation.com/for-an-indigenous-perspective-on-australia-day-heres-a-quick-guide-to-first-nations-media-platforms-174704

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Teagan Goolmeer, PhD Candidate, The University of Melbourne

Indigenous people across Australia place tremendous cultural and customary value on many species and ecological communities. The very presence of a plant or animal species can trigger an Indigenous person to recall and share knowledge. This is crucial to maintaining culture and managing Country.

But as species disappear, ancient knowledge built up over thousands of years also fades away – and fragments of our culture are lost forever.

For years, Indigenous groups have pushed for the right to partner with government authorities to “co-manage” culturally significant species and communities. Such recognition of Indigenous rights would require amendments to environment and land management laws.

Unfortunately, changes to Australia’s federal environment laws currently underway fall short of what’s needed. To protect Australia’s imperilled species, the law must chart a new course that allows Indigenous groups to manage their Country, their way.

Managing the Indigenous estate

Australia’s Indigenous estate takes in about 51% of the range of the nation’s threatened vertebrate species.

The Indigenous estate refers to the assets held, or reasonably likely to be held, by or for the benefit of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander people. It includes land and sea held through such means as traditional ownership, native title and land rights organisations. It also includes intangible values such as cultural rights, practice and expression, as well as Indigenous knowledge and traditional management.

A range of state and federal programs involve Indigenous participation in land and sea management, offering invaluable protection to the Indigenous estate. These include Indigenous Protected Areas and the successful Indigenous Ranger program.

And many governments and other groups recognise that species and ecological communities can have significant cultural, spiritual and customary value to Indigenous Australians. But often, no legal mechanism exists to protect these entities.

Read more:
Why the Australian government must listen to Torres Strait leaders on climate change

Some species and other entities of significance to Indigenous Australians are listed as threatened under Australia’s federal environment law, known as the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) Act. But authorities are not required to engage Indigenous Australians in the listing, management or recovery of these species.

Indigenous Australians have successfully managed this continent’s landscapes and seascapes for tens of thousands of years. Their approach is holistic and integrated – considering the whole cultural landscape with a deep understanding of the interconnected relationships between species and Country.

In contrast, management actions under federal environment law focus on the outcomes of the listed species instead of the overall health of Country.

All this has left Indigenous groups underfunded and at the mercy of national-level management decisions, as opposed to place-based Indigenous-led action.

‘Surprising and disappointing’

The EPBC Act was recently reviewed by Professor Graeme Samuel, who was commissioned by the federal government. His final report in 2020 found the law was failing in many ways.

Samuel recommended a suite of reforms. Among other goals, they aimed to “respect and harness the knowledge of Indigenous Australians”. One year on and progress on implementing the 38 recommendations is slow.

Among the recommendations were that the EPBC Act adopt a set of legally enforceable “national environmental standards” – clear rules that protect the environment and enable sustainable development. The standards would cover matters such as threatened species, compliance, environmental data and Indigenous engagement and participation in decision-making.

It was both surprising and disappointing that Indigenous knowledge was not embedded across all proposed environmental standards. The omission means Indigenous perspectives will continue to be relegated to a stand-alone standard of “participation”.

In particular, the national standard pertaining to threatened species made no reference to Indigenous knowledge or the Indigenous estate.
And proposed interim standards completely omit Indigenous engagement, participation and values.

Without a mandate to include Indigenous people in threatened species planning and recovery, biodiversity will remain at risk. What’s more, significant gaps in the application of Indigenous Knowledge and protection of the Indigenous estate will continue.

Read more:
Fixing Australia’s shocking record of Indigenous heritage destruction: Juukan inquiry offers a way forward

A new kind of recognition

During the submission process of the review, many Indigenous and non-Indigenous organisations lobbied for the recognition of “culturally significant entities”. These groups include the government’s own Indigenous Advisory Committee and Threatened Species Scientific Committee.

“Culturally significant entities” are species and sites of great or exceptional cultural importance to Indigenous Australians. They might be a source of identity, a medicine, lore, an important traditional food or required for cultural practices. They usually feature prominently in Indigenous knowledge, language and ceremonies.

Submissions to the review called for these entities to be formally recognised under the EPBC Act and afforded a far higher level of protection. They also called for the mandatory participation of Indigenous Australians in threatened species nominations, listings, policy and management.

Many Indigenous Australians were disappointed this measure was not mentioned in Samuel’s final report. Without proper legal protection, culturally significant entities will not be assessed and can be damaged by threats such as climate change, inappropriate land management and poorly conceived development proposals.

Read more:
Australia’s plants and animals have long been used without Indigenous consent. Now Queensland has taken a stand

From engagement to empowerment

It’s time for governments and conservation groups to recognise the enduring value of the Indigenous estate and knowledge in curbing Australia’s parlous record of biodiversity loss.

While many of Samuel’s recommendations attempted to address issues raised by Indigenous Australians, they fall short of true empowerment and global best practice.

As the size and scale of the Indigenous estate continues to grow, so to does the opportunity to arrest biodiversity decline. Rather than sitting in the back seat, Indigenous Australians must be up front in managing the recovery of Australia’s unique and precious environment.

The authors acknowledge and thank the following people for their contributions to this work and article: Oliver Costello, a Bundjalung man; and Cissy Gore-Birch, a Jaru, Nyikina and Balanggarra woman, and Executive Manager Aboriginal Engagement at Bush Heritage Australia.

Teagan Goolmeer receives funding from Agilent Australia PhD scholarship. She is affiliated with Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environmental Indigenous Advisory Committee and NESP Threatened Species Recovery Hub.

Assoc Prof Bradley J. Moggridge is affiliated with Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment’s Committee on Aboriginal Water Interests (CAWI), a member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists, a Governor with WWF Australia.

Stephen van Leeuwen receives funding from NESP Northern Australia Environmental Resources Hub, NESP Resilient Landscapes Hub and the Australian Research Council via the Healing Country Industry Transformation Training Centre.

Stephen is also a member of the Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environmental Indigenous Advisory Committee and the Threatened Species Scientific Committee.

– ref. Ancient knowledge is lost when a species disappears. It’s time to let Indigenous people care for their country, their way – https://theconversation.com/ancient-knowledge-is-lost-when-a-species-disappears-its-time-to-let-indigenous-people-care-for-their-country-their-way-172760

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steven Greenland, Professor in Marketing, Charles Darwin University

The COVID-19 pandemic has simply added to the ever more rapid growth in online learning since 2005. Online education generates massive income, with the global e-learning market estimated at US$144 billion in 2019 and predicted to reach US$374 billion by 2026. However, universities have struggled to reduce high online student dropout rates – online students are 2.5 times more likely than on-campus students to withdraw without a qualification.

Advances in online educational technology have helped universities tap new and lucrative markets. Students with complex lives who are unable to attend on-campus classes prefer online learning. Yet introductory online modules frequently have a dropout rate of more than one in five students.

This high dropout rate costs universities millions in lost revenue every year. It also creates a poor perception of online education. Yet universities are still neglecting the main causes of dropout identified in our research.

Read more:
Supporting part-time and online learners is key to reducing university dropout rates

The scale of online dropouts means small improvements can be worth a lot to universities. As COVID-19 forced many programs online and reduced revenue from international students, universities have increased efforts to improve online retention. Current interventions include massive investment in learning technology.

However, these efforts are having little if any impact on the persistently high dropout rate.

There has been substantial research on this issue. Shallow understanding and universities not responding to the root dropout causes have been identified as the underlying problem.

Past online retention studies have often failed to provide insights into all drivers of dropout or ways to overcome them. The small samples often used in qualitative studies have been identified as a shortcoming that explains this deficiency.

Our research on open online education dropout can help.

The study included 200 in-depth interviews with online dropout students. This sample is much larger than past qualitative retention studies. It enabled us to explore the full range of dropout reasons down to those that explain 5% of dropouts.

What did the study reveal about causes?

The CDU-led study identified more than 40 dropout causes within ten broad themes. Personal circumstances were the major drivers. Over 65% of the main dropout reasons fell into this category.

Personal circumstances include broad dropout themes relating to students’ employment, family and relationships, health, personal situation and location. We identified many subthemes that provide more detailed insights into each of these aspects.

Read more:
Student employment and inflexible university policies drive online drop out

Learner context aspects accounted for almost one-quarter of the main dropout reasons. These include the students’ enrolment approach and motivation, study time management and learning resources and experience.

Only 10% of main dropout reasons related to administrative issues and module design and delivery. Yet universities’ retention efforts often focus primarily on these aspects.

What did the study reveal about reducing dropout?

To be effective, retention initiatives must respond to the major dropout causes. However, personal circumstance are often seen as being an “uncontrollable” dropout dimension and beyond universities’ ability to accommodate.

Our study sought students’ suggestions about how the university could have helped to prevent their dropout. We identified 19 dimensions within five dropout intervention themes. Many of these relate to the students’ personal struggles and study-life challenges, which retention initiatives often ignore.

A common suggestion was to develop students’ study skills and build their resilience before they start their courses. This would help students set realistic study goals and develop strategies for coping with study-life challenges and personal commitments.

The students often mentioned that university policies and processes did not allow for their personal challenges. At the end of the day, even the best learning technologies can’t help a parent looking after a sick child, or an employee covering for a sick colleague. Universities need to pay much more attention to such issues.

Students with sudden temporary increases in personal demands need simpler processes for requesting extensions and adjusting hand-in dates.
For longer-term disruptions, offering flexible semesters and micro-credentialling modules – breaking courses into smaller credit-bearing components – can help. This will allow students to drop out part-way in one semester and later resume study where they left off.

Read more:
Microcredentials: what are they, and will they really revolutionise education and improve job prospects?

Students wanted such interventions to be made available without financial or academic penalty. They could then easily resume study once a personal challenge has subsided.

They also frequently mentioned assessment design and policies in relation to module completion. For example, providing alternative assessment options and more flexible submission dates would allow for students’ unpredictable changing personal circumstances.

Unis need to rethink their approach

Universities can do more to reduce the persistently high dropout rates that plague online education. First, however, they must recognise the shortcomings of their intervention strategies. Currently, their focus is mainly on “controllable” dropout dimensions and learning technology and design.

To reduce online dropout universities must respond to the main dropout causes, which relate to students’ personal circumstances. Universities need to appreciate dropout from the students’ perspective. They can then give priority to interventions that respond effectively to students’ complex life circumstances.

Nothing to disclose.

Ninh Nguyen, Roopali Misra, and Steven Greenland do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How unis can save millions by tackling the biggest causes of online students’ high dropout rates – https://theconversation.com/how-unis-can-save-millions-by-tackling-the-biggest-causes-of-online-students-high-dropout-rates-173139

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Erin Sebo, Lecturer in Medieval Literature, Flinders University

Wordle is a quick English-language word game developed by software engineer Josh Wardle, as a unique gift for his partner, released in October 2021. It’s easily accessible online.

The game, in which players guess a five letter word through linguistic inferences, became an unlikely success, suggesting a change in how we communicate – both in terms of how we socialise, and in our relationship with language.

The popularity of Wordle

Wordle has nearly 3 million players across the world and versions of it are appearing in other languages.

People love talking about it – the number of Wordle tweets increases 26% a day on average – even when they hate playing it (a significant number of Wordle tweets are complaints, usually about the volume or smugness of Wordle tweets).

Because the game allows you to share your result without spoilers, it has inspired fierce competition, with social media being flooded with results, especially high scores.

In fact, recently, NBC assured us that being “bad” at Wordle doesn’t make you “dumb”.

This is a perplexing idea from a linguistic point of view: solving the puzzle in fewer guesses involves more luck – not more skill.

How to play Wordle

Wordle is often compared to crosswords but the mental process of solving is closer to code-cracking.

Players are able to narrow down possibilities by calculating the probability of different letter combinations. If your first guess produced, say, two letters both yellow, you can make an educated guess about the most likely positions for those letters in English words.

Since the game is based around five letter words, the words almost always involve consonant clusters. These are typically fairly specific to individual languages. In English, “spl” and “spr” are common, for example, but “slr” or “prl” are impossible.

But players also need to be flexible enough not to exclude less likely combinations entirely – and to keep them in mind as you play.

The difficulty of each puzzle depends on the relationship between the solution and the player’s first guess. A lot of this is luck but you can improve your chances statistically by using frequency analysis, a cryptolinguistic technique based on which letters are commonest.

I use “share” as my first guess because it includes the two most common vowels, “s” which is the third most common letter and most common final letter in English words, while “h” and “r” are common individually and even more common in consonant clusters, so their presence or absence instantly knocks out a range of possibilities.

But I admire people who play with less strategy. Lots of people guess on whim.

Once you’ve got past your first guess, players use their knowledge of spelling conventions and sound patterns in English to solve the word – another linguistic technique used in code-breaking. After all, some of the most successful code breakers of the pre-computer age were linguists, precisely because of this skill.

John Chadwick, who is famous among academics for his role in deciphering the ancient script known as Linear B, was also involved in cracking the most famous WWII code, Enigma.

Language and linguistics

Puzzles are always popular. What is, perhaps, surprising is that a game which relies on such specific linguistic knowledge has become so popular.

Although there is an anxiety about the decline of reading for pleasure, this generation of adults actually consumes more written text than any generation in history. The internet means many previously spoken interactions, both social and business, now happen in writing. It also means mass communication, which means a much greater awareness of writing conventions.

The more people reading a text, the more important conventions become.

That doesn’t mean a greater number of people are using formal English correctly – that would only happen if they were reading more examples of formal English – but it does mean a greater awareness of conventions. You can see this in the way people write differently in text message, to Instagram, to Twitter, according to the conventions developing around each platform. In some online contexts, alternative spellings or misspellings can be used deliberately for specific semantic purposes – a technique which has the paradoxical effect of highlighting the spelling conventions and sound patterns Wordle depends on.

You can see this reliance on conventions develop over the history of written English. In early medieval manuscripts, often intended for only a few readers, there aren’t many rules. No standardised dialect or spelling, no one even cares if you split a word in two. You don’t need standardised rules because the specialised audience understands.

Read more:
Orright you spunkrats, here’s where all our Aussie summertime language came from

With the invention of printing which allows more books to be produced more cheaply, there is a corresponding development of widely-understood conventions, such as standardised spelling. By sticking to these, publishers make their books readable to a wider audience.

The global audience created by the internet is the next step in this process, increasing our use of conventions like those you need to understand in order to solve Wordle.

Community

The game’s popularity ultimately has to do with community. The fact everyone is solving the same puzzle means people discuss strategies and individual puzzles in friend groups and share their results online on social media.

For many people who aren’t able to see friends and family in person, it gives a focus for socialising. For people isolated by the pandemic, it creates an online community.

The pandemic has meant everyone in the world is facing the same problem, COVID, even if the resources for dealing with it are vastly different, so it’s nice to have a small, fun thing in common as well.

Erin Sebo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Codecracking, community and competition: why the word puzzle Wordle has become a new online obsession – https://theconversation.com/codecracking-community-and-competition-why-the-word-puzzle-wordle-has-become-a-new-online-obsession-174878

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

As attention turns to pupils’ return to the classroom, Anthony Albanese on Tuesday will promise a Labor government would spend $440 million on better ventilation in schools, building upgrades, and mental health support for children.

The plan is in two parts: a fund to upgrade schools in the age of COVID, worth $238 million and spent by the end of 2023, and $201.5 million to boost student wellbeing, which an ALP government would spend this year.

Albanese will outline the plan in a National Press Club pre-Australia Day address, billed as a scene-setter for election year in which he aims to give an idea of what kind of prime minister he would be.

Scott Morrison will address the club next week.

The start of the school year will see a fresh challenge for dealing with Omicron. NSW and Victoria have plans for the regular testing of children but appeals are being made to parents to be patient given the shortage of rapid antigen tests.

“Parents are worried sick about sending their kids back to school,” Albanese and shadow education minister Tanya Plibersek say in a statement. “Scott Morrison’s delays getting a COVID vaccine for young people means many students will be more exposed than they should be.”

In his speech, extracts of which were released ahead of delivery, Albanese says every school would stand to benefit from Labor’s proposed funding.

“The schools themselves will decide how to use the extra money to best help their students,” he says.

“Part of this funding will be allocated directly to activities that get our children back on track. This could mean more funding for school counsellors and psychologists, and for camps, excursions, sporting and social activities that improve children’s wellbeing.”

Labor would fund a “free, expert-developed, voluntary mental health check tool” that schools could choose to use to help identify children needing extra support.

An ALP government would have the Education Department conduct a review of COVID’s impact on students with disability, so they get the necessary help.

The upgrade plan would cover funding for better ventilation and projects such as more outdoor classrooms, replacing boarded-up windows and doors and buying air purifiers.

Labor’s initiatives would help schools and students “bounce back,” Albanese says.

Albanese says his speech title “Australia’s best days are ahead”, refers to “not just the better days that we’re all hoping for right now, but the best our nation has ever seen”.

Read more:
Politics with Michelle Grattan: A very bad start to 2022 for Morrison, but can Albanese win?

Referring to Morrison’s statements we must “push through” the Omicron wave, Albanese says “‘pushing through’ this pandemic is not enough. We need to learn from it, we need to use what the last two years have taught us to build a better future”.

Australians have been “magnificent” in the pandemic, he says.
If elected PM, he would see it as his fundamental responsibility to repay the sacrifices, reward the efforts, and “to prove worthy of the generosity and bravery of the Australian people”.

This would mean building on the lessons of the pandemic, he says. These include the importance of a strong public health system; the role of insecure work in undermining many families’ confidence; the need for Australia to be more self-sufficient; the importance of a high quality NBN and affordable childcare; and the consequences of stripping TAFE and training for skills gaps and worker shortages.

“In a recent profile, when asked to reflect on his time in office, Scott Morrison suggested he is not interested in leaving a legacy. For him, having no legacy is a conscious choice.

“If given the opportunity, I will make a different choice.
I want a better future.

“And if I’m successful, that future will be clear to Australians by the end of Labor’s first term,” Albanese says.

“An Australia with rising living standards across the board, lifted by more secure work, better wages, stronger Medicare and cheaper childcare.

“An Australia with more secure jobs in both existing and new industries – industries that will be reaping the benefits of cheap, renewable energy created in abundance here at home.

“An Australia that is secure in our place in the world, standing up for Australian democratic values and for human rights on the global stage.

“An inclusive society, where gender, race or religion are no indication of a person’s opportunities or possibilities.

“An Australia reconciled with ourselves and with our history, and with a constitutionally recognised First Nations’ Voice to Parliament.

“The desire to deliver that legacy for Australians, with the lessons of this moment at its core, will be a driving force of a Labor government.”

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Albanese pledges $440 million to help schools and children ‘bounce back’ and outlines aspirations for a ‘legacy’ – https://theconversation.com/albanese-pledges-440-million-to-help-schools-and-children-bounce-back-and-outlines-aspirations-for-a-legacy-175526

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Geoff Scollary, Adjunct Professor, Charles Sturt University

I was first introduced to natural wines in Paris about 20 years ago. My initial tasting experience did little to convince me this approach to winemaking would survive. Many showed faults reflecting oxidation or yeast- or bacterial-derived odours that smelled “off”.

The natural winemaking strategy has matured dramatically since then and the wines are now making significant inroads in Australia. In Paris and in France generally, natural wines have gone from strength to strength.

The natural wine movement in Australia is being driven by consumers from varied backgrounds who, according to one winemaker, demand “transparency and truth around the winemaking process”. Authenticity of the final product is key.

But how are natural wines made, and what makes them “natural”?

Read more:
What drives our wine choice – taste, or the price tag?

Natural winemaking

The overall goal in natural wine production is to have as little human intervention as possible in the journey from the vineyard to the wine.

Grapes must be harvested manually from a vineyard managed by either organic practice or under biodynamic principles (such as those outlined here).

Once the grapes are crushed, fermentation is carried out by indigenous – sometimes called “wild” – yeasts on the skin of the grapes. In some styles, grape stalks may be included in the ferment.

These practices alone, however, are not unique to the natural winemaking process; they’re sometimes used in production of conventional wines, too.

But in conventional winemaking, a wide range of processing aids and additives may be used.

And this is the point of difference: in natural winemaking, no additions are made.

Processing aids and additives

The image here demonstrates this clearly. The list of processes and additives decreases markedly as one moves from conventional through organic, biodynamic to natural winemaking.

For natural wines, once the fermentation is finished, the wine is left enclosed for the waste grape material and dead yeast cells to settle before being decanted into clean vessels for bottling.

Some winemakers will use a simple cloth-type filtration to remove larger particles. High-tech filtration techniques, such as membrane or cross-flow filtration, are not allowed.

The resulting unfiltered wine in bottle will be cloudy.

For a conventionally made wine, this would be a definite marketing negative. But for natural wines, it is the norm.

On the tricky question of sulfites

A lot of wines contain a compound called sulfites, which can cause an allergic reaction in some people. In winemaking, they serve to reduce oxidation and limit bacterial growth.

The use of sulfites, also commonly called sulfur dioxide, in natural wines is a point of contention. There are many who refuse to use it, because they see it as an additive. Others argue a small addition to what is already present as a by-product of the fermentation can be beneficial.

Wine expert Isabelle Legeron – the first woman in France to have conferred upon her the prestigious title of Master of Wine – is a great advocate for natural wines.

In 2012, she established the RAW WINE community to support low intervention winemakers. In her monthly wine recommendations, Legeron lists those with no added sulfites and those with sulfites up to 70 mg/litre, somewhat higher than the more common upper limit of 30 mg/litre.

In France, natural wines are now mainstream. Natural wine has, after many years of debate, been given formal recognition there under the designation “Vin Méthode Nature”, a strictly defined term now accepted by key government agencies and regulatory bodies.

There is a 12-point commitment charter to which winemakers must adhere to obtain the Vin Méthode Nature endorsement.

There is even a sticker that can be affixed to the bottle, one version of which indicates sulfur dioxide has been added to the wine.

The taste profile

Natural wines are different in appearance and taste. Although my early experience to these wines was not always favourable, production methods have matured. While many remain cloudy, as they are unfiltered, the palate structure can show the length and depth that I chase when selecting wine.

In 2017, wine media outlet Decanter reviewed 122 natural wines. The reviewers’ comments were overall positive, endorsing and reinforcing the place of natural wines in an expanding market.

Natural sparkling wines – commonly referred to Pétillant-Naturel or simply Pet Nat – are one of my favourites. Made by the ancestral method, fermentation begins in an open tank and, at some point, it is transferred to bottle to finish.

The wine is amazingly refreshing, albeit cloudy and lightly sparkling (about half the pressure of champagne). There is no secondary fermentation and no additives – the yeast is indigenous to the grape.

This is pretty much grapes into wine with minimal human intervention.

Read more:
Appearance, aroma and mouthfeel: all you need to know to give wine tasting a go

Geoff Scollary does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Natural wines: how are they made and what’s the deal with sulfites? An expert explains – https://theconversation.com/natural-wines-how-are-they-made-and-whats-the-deal-with-sulfites-an-expert-explains-174879

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dr Alexandra Wade, Research associate, University of South Australia

When we think of dementia, we often fear a loss of control. But the reassuring news is up to 40% of dementias can be prevented or delayed if we change our health habits.

Nearly half a million Australians are living with dementia. Without a cure, this number is expected to reach 1.1 million by 2058.

Dementia shares key risk factors with cardiovascular (of the heart and blood vessels) disease, including high blood pressure, high blood sugar, being overweight and smoking. Inflammation and oxidative stress (where protective antioxidants are losing their fight with damaging free radicals) follow. This damages blood vessels and reduces the flow of blood and oxygen to the brain.

Without enough oxygen, brain cells can’t function effectively, and eventually die. Reduced blood flow also leaves the brain vulnerable to the plaques and tangles seen in forms of dementia.

But by changing our habits, we can both improve heart health and reduce the risk of dementia. Here are five lifestyle changes we can make now …

1. Eat 2–3 serves of oily fish each week

Oily fish, like salmon, sardines and mackerel are rich in omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids. Omega-3’s have anti-inflammatory effects and have been shown to significantly reduce blood pressure.

Omega-3s are also needed to support the structure and function of our brain cells and are “essential nutrients”. This means we need to get them from our diet. This is especially true as we age, because reductions in omega-3 intake have been linked to faster rates of cognitive decline.

2. Eat plant foods with every meal

Plant foods – like leafy greens, extra virgin olive oil, blueberries, nuts and pulses – contain a range of vitamins and minerals, including polyphenols, flavonoids, carotenoids, vitamin C and vitamin E. These micronutrients have both antioxidant and anti-inflammatory effects that protect and improve our blood vessel functioning.

Diets high in plant foods, like the Mediterranean diet, have been shown to improve blood pressure, glucose regulation and body composition, and have also been linked to lower rates of cognitive decline, better markers of brain health and lower risk of dementia.

3. Eat less processed food

On the other hand, saturated fats, refined carbohydrates and red and processed meats are believed to trigger inflammatory pathways and highly processed foods have been linked to hypertension, type 2 diabetes and obesity.

Eating more of these foods means we’re also likely to miss out on the benefits of other foods. Whole grains (like whole oats, rye, buckwheat and barley) provide fibre, vitamin B, E, magnesium and phytonutrients which have anti-inflammatory and antioxidant properties. Refined grains (like white bread, rice and pasta) are highly processed, meaning many of these beneficial nutrients are removed.

Read more:
Why people with dementia don’t all behave the same

4. Get physical and make it fun

Physical activity can reduce inflammation and blood pressure, while improving blood vessel functioning. This helps the body deliver more oxygen to the brain, improving memory and other cognitive functions affected by dementia.

Guidelines suggest adults should engage in physical activity on most days, break up long bouts of inactivity (like watching TV) and incorporate some resistance exercises.

The key to forming long-term exercise habits is choosing physical activities you enjoy and making small, gradual increases in activity. Any movement that raises the heart rate can be classified as physical activity, including gardening, walking and even household chores.

Read more:
Aiming for 10,000 steps? It turns out 7,000 could be enough to cut your risk of early death

5. Quit smoking

Smokers are 60% more likely to develop dementia than non-smokers. This is because smoking increases inflammation and oxidative stress that harm the structure and function of our blood vessels.

Quitting smoking can begin to reverse these effects. In fact, former smokers have a significantly lower risk of cognitive decline and dementia compared to current smokers, similar to that of people who have never smoked.

Read more:
COVID-19 has offered us an unexpected opportunity to help more people quit smoking

Is it too late?

It’s never too early, or too late, to begin making these changes.

Obesity and high blood pressure in midlife are key predictors of dementia risk, while diabetes, physical inactivity and smoking are stronger predictors later in life. Regular physical activity earlier in life can reduce blood pressure and decrease your risk of diabetes. Like giving up smoking, changes at any stage of life can reduce inflammation and change your dementia risk.

Little by little

It can be overwhelming to change your whole diet, start a new exercise program and quit smoking all at once. But even small changes can lead to significant improvements in health. Start by making manageable swaps, like:

• use extra virgin olive oil in place of butter, margarine and other cooking oils
• swap one serve of processed food, like chips, white bread, or commercial biscuits, for a handful of nuts
• swap one serve of meat each week for one serve of oily fish
• swap five minutes of sedentary time for five minutes of walking and slowly increase each day.

Ashleigh Elizabeth Smith receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NH&MRC) and the Hospital Research Foundation.

Maddison Mellow receives funding from the Dementia Australia Research Foundation (PhD scholarship).

Dr Alexandra Wade does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. A healthier heart can protect your brain too. 5 lifestyle changes to prevent dementia – https://theconversation.com/a-healthier-heart-can-protect-your-brain-too-5-lifestyle-changes-to-prevent-dementia-175142

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna Hopkins, Senior Lecturer in Molecular Ecology, Edith Cowan University

Wildlife encounters can be few and far between in cities but, if you’re lucky, you might catch sight of a small Aussie marsupial in Perth that’s helping keep urban bushland healthy.

Quenda, a rabbit-sized digging mammal native to southwestern Australia, are found in patches of bushland, parkland and even backyard gardens. And our latest research shows just how important these unassuming marsupials are to Australian ecosystems.

We found quenda eat a huge variety of specialised fungi called mycorrhiza, which play a key role in helping native vegetation, including eucalyptus trees, absorb water and nutrients. The fungal spores survive in quenda droppings, which can then colonise eucalypt roots. In fact, we found one little scat with over 100 types of fungi in it – that’s some very efficient fungal dispersal!

Quenda are considered rare or near threatened due to habitat clearing and predation by introduced predators – cats, dogs and foxes. It’s crucial we manage and maintain their population in and around cities to ensure they have a positive influence on urban ecosystems.

Nature’s gardeners

Many different Australian mammals dig in the soil for food or shelter, including bettongs, potoroos, bandicoots and echidnas.

Sadly, most of Australia’s digging mammals are threatened with extinction, and many now have very restricted distributions as their habitat is cleared for urban development and they are preyed on by cats and foxes.

Once thought to be a subspecies of the southern brown bandicoot, the quenda was recognised as its own distinct species (Isoodon fusciventer) in 2018, and is found only in the southwestern corner of Australia.

Quenda are prolific diggers in their search for dinner – a single quenda can dig up to 45 small pits per night. Although each pit is small, one quenda can dig over four tonnes of soil each year in total, almost 30 wheelbarrow loads.

Read more:
Dig this: a tiny echidna moves 8 trailer-loads of soil a year, helping tackle climate change

Quenda and other digging mammals are like nature’s gardeners. Their digging helps break the water repellent layer on the soil surface, allowing more water to infiltrate the soil, and decreases soil compaction and erosion.

Quenda digs also incorporate leaf litter and seeds into the soil, and this improves conditions for native plants to grow and thrive.

45 species in each scat

But perhaps the biggest way they help Australian ecosystems is by dispersing fungal spores in their droppings.

We examined quenda scats from urban bushland south of Perth, and found they contained a large variety of fungi. Quenda scats are only 3-5cm long, but had an average of 45 different fungi species in each that the quenda would have deliberately sought out and eaten.

These include fungi that produce underground truffle-like fruitbodies, much like the famous black truffles we eat. Because the truffle-like fruitbodies are found underground, they cannot easily disperse their spores. This means they rely almost entirely on quenda and other animals to dig them up and disperse the spores in their poo.

This is a wonderful example of a mutually beneficial – or “symbiotic” – relationship: the quenda gets a delicious meal and the fungus has their spores dispersed far and wide.

Read more:
How fungi’s knack for networking boosts ecological recovery after bushfires

We found more than half of the fungi species in quenda scats are “mycorrhizas”. These fungi form a mutually beneficial relationship with the roots of over 90% of the world’s plants including most native Australian species.

In this mycorrhizal relationship, the plant gives the fungus carbohydrates – a product of photosynthesis. In return, the fungus takes nutrients and water from the soil and passes them to the plant.

The mycorrhizal fungi are essential to healthy forests and bushland. When plants such as eucalypts team up with mycorrhizal fungi, the plants grow taller and faster and are better protected from stresses such as drought and pathogens.

Given very few other species of digging mammals survive in urban bushland, it’s clear quenda play a vital role to disperse mycorrhizal fungi.

How you can keep quenda safe

Quenda are extremely important ecosystem engineers in our urban bushland, so it’s crucial we help them thrive by making quenda friendly gardens.

Quenda feel safest in dense vegetation, so if you have a garden and want quenda to visit, plant a dense native understory. This provides both food and habitat for the quenda.

It’s also important to keep your cats indoors (especially at night) and to teach your dogs not to attack quenda. Make sure any water sources – think ponds, fountains, swimming pools – have an escape route or ramp for quenda, in case they fall in.

Read more:
Don’t let them out: 15 ways to keep your indoor cat happy

Finally, at dawn and dusk, when quenda are most active, drive slowly and keep your eyes peeled to avoid collisions.

They are one few remaining digging mammals in Australian urban bushlands, so the next time you spot a quenda, remember all the wonderful ways it’s making our corner of the world a better place.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How this little marsupial’s poo nurtures urban gardens and bushland (and how you can help protect them) – https://theconversation.com/how-this-little-marsupials-poo-nurtures-urban-gardens-and-bushland-and-how-you-can-help-protect-them-175064

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jane Cunneen, Adjunct Research Fellow, Curtin University

The enormous eruption of the underwater volcano in Tonga, Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai, triggered a tsunami that reached countries all around the Pacific rim, even causing a disastrous oil spill along 21 beaches in Peru.

In Tonga, waves about 2 metres high were recorded before the sea level gauge failed, and waves of up to 15m hit the west coasts of Tongatapu Islands, ‘Eua, and Ha’apai Islands. Volcanic activity could continue for weeks or months, but it’s hard to predict if or when there’ll be another such powerful eruption.

Most tsunamis are caused by earthquakes, but a significant percentage (about 15%) are caused by landslides or volcanoes. Some of these may be interlinked – for example, landslide tsunamis are often triggered by earthquakes or volcanic eruptions.

But does climate change also play a role? As the planet warms, we’re seeing more frequent and intense storms and cyclones, the melting of glaciers and ice caps, and sea levels rising.
Climate change, however, doesn’t just affect the atmosphere and oceans, it affects the Earth’s crust as well.

Climate-linked geological changes can increase the incidence of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions which, in turn, can exacerbate the threat of tsunamis. Here are five ways this can happen.

1. Sea level rise

If greenhouse gas emissions remain at high rates, the average global sea level is projected to rise between 60 centimetres and 1.1m. Almost two thirds of the world’s cities with populations over five million are at risk.

Rising sea levels not only make coastal communities more vulnerable to flooding from storms, but also tsunamis. Even modest rises in sea level will dramatically increase the frequency and intensity of flooding when a tsunami occurs, as the tsunami can travel further inland.

For example, a 2018 study showed only a 50 centimetre rise would double the frequency of tsunami-induced flooding in Macau, China. This means in future, smaller tsunamis could have the same impact as larger tsunamis would today.

2. Landslides

A warming climate can increase the risk of both submarine (underwater) and aerial (above ground) landslides, thereby increasing the risk of local tsunamis.

The melting of permafrost (frozen soil) at high latitudes decreases soil stability, making it more susceptible to erosion and landslides. More intense rainfall can trigger landslides, too, as storms become more frequent under climate change.

Tsunamis can be generated on impact as a landslide enters the water, or as water is moved by a rapid underwater landslide.

Read more:
Waves from the Tonga tsunami are still being felt in Australia – and even a 50cm surge could knock you off your feet

In general, tsunami waves generated from landslides or rock falls dissipate quickly and don’t travel as far as tsunamis generated from earthquakes, but they can still lead to huge waves locally.

In Alaska, US, glacial retreat and melting permafrost has exposed unstable slopes. In 2015, this melting caused a landslide that sent 180 million tonnes of rock into a narrow fjord, generating a tsunami reaching 193m high – one of the highest ever recorded worldwide.

Other areas at risk include northwest British Columbia in Canada, and the Barry Arm in Alaska, where an unstable mountain slope at the toe of the Barry Glacier has the potential to fail and generate a severe tsunami in the next 20 years.

3. Iceberg calving and collapsing ice shelves

Global warming is accelerating the rate of iceberg calving – when chunks of ice fall into the ocean.

Studies predict large ice shelves, such as the Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica, will likely collapse in the next five to ten years. Likewise, the Greenland ice sheet is thinning and retreating at an alarming rate.

While much of the current research focus is on the sea level risk associated with melting and collapse of glaciers and ice sheets, there’s also a tsunami risk from the calving and breakup process.

Wandering icebergs can trigger submarine landslides and tsunamis thousands of kilometres from the iceberg’s original source, as they hit unstable sediments on the seafloor.

4. Volcanic activity from ice melting

About 12,000 years ago, the last glacial period (“ice age”) ended and the melting ice triggered a dramatic increase in volcanic activity.

The correlation between climate warming and more volcanic eruptions isn’t yet well constrained or understood. But it may be related to changes in stress to the Earth’s crust as the weight of ice is removed, and a phenomenon called “isostatic rebound” – the long-term uplift of land in response to the removal of ice sheets.

If this correlation holds for the current period of climate warming and melting of ice in high latitudes, there’ll be an increased risk of volcanic eruptions and associated hazards, including tsunamis.

5. Increased earthquakes

There are a number ways climate change can increase the frequency of earthquakes, and so increase tsunami risk.

First, the weight of ice sheets may be suppressing fault movement and earthquakes. When the ice melts, the isostatic rebound (land uplift) is accompanied by an increase in earthquakes and fault movement as the crust adjusts to the loss of weight.

We may have seen this already in Alaska, where melting glaciers reduced the stability of faults, inducing many small earthquakes and possibly the magnitude 7.2 St Elias earthquake in 1979.

Another factor is low air pressure associated with storms and typhoons, which studies have also shown can trigger earthquakes in areas where the Earth’s crust is already under stress. Even relatively small changes in air pressure can trigger fault movements, as an analysis of earthquakes between 2002 and 2007 in eastern Taiwan identified.

So how can we prepare?

Many mitigation strategies for climate change should also include elements to improve tsunami preparedness.

This could include incorporating projected sea level rise into tsunami prediction models, and in building codes for infrastructure along vulnerable coastlines.

Researchers can also ensure scientific models of climate impacts include the projected increase in earthquakes, landslides and volcanic activity, and the increased tsunami risk this will bring.

Read more:
What causes a tsunami? An ocean scientist explains the physics of these destructive waves

Jane Cunneen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. 5 ways climate change increases the threat of tsunamis, from collapsing ice shelves to sea level rise – https://theconversation.com/5-ways-climate-change-increases-the-threat-of-tsunamis-from-collapsing-ice-shelves-to-sea-level-rise-175247

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Radhika Raghav, Sessional Lecturer and Tutor in Gender Studies and Sociology, University of Otago

Contemporary Bollywood films tend to focus on stories of the Indian underdog emerging triumphant after facing adversity or a threat from an “outsider”: the triumph of the charismatic masculine Hinduised hero who fulfils his duty, saves the nation and reclaims India’s lost pride.

This isn’t a new phenomenon. Bollywood’s formula of promoting nationalist rhetoric via glorification of past heroes or events can be traced back to the early years of the Marathi theatre.

In the 19th century, Marathi theatre staged historical events still within living memory: re-telling stories of the great Maratha Empire, which covered much of the Indian subcontinent from 1645 to 1818.

With the subcontinent under British rule, popular plays furthered the calls of the “extremist” political leader Bal Gangadhar Tilak (1856-1920) for swaraj, or self-rule. The ever-present Maratha past became a major source of inspiration for the playwrights and served the cause of emergent Hindu nationalism.

Today, Bollywood is demonstrating a renewed purpose of creating new national myths, and it is on full display in the new film 83, a sports biopic based on India’s first win at the cricket world cup in 1983.

We follow the team in the months leading up to their defeat of the West Indies at Lord’s Cricket Ground in London under new captain Kapil Dev (Ranveer Singh).

A team of seemingly inglorious young Indian men emerge victorious on the cricket field in a film about regaining honour and masculine pride for the country.

It is a film about much more than just the 1983 world cup. Like a propagandist tool, 83 draws on the rich sport tradition of India and serves the nationalist cause.

Sports, the final frontier of masculinity

This celebration of the nationalist cause is most visible in 83’s representation of gender.

At the centre of the film is team captain Kapil Dev, a popular sports hero of the 80s. His authenticity and gentlemanly demeanour warrant affection from people of all ages, and the film shows his masculinity acting as a stabilising force for the nation in flux.

But also inherent in this masculine ideal is a belief in the Hindu nationalist vision of hegemonic masculinity: a belief in the “normality” of men’s subordination of women and other minorities.

Read more:
Indian men are swapping ‘tall, dark and handsome’ for ‘tall, fair and debonair’

83 celebrates the boys club with masculine banter. Each player is focused on proving their masculine status as an ideal son who wants to make his father proud; a responsible husband who protects and provides for his wife; and, most importantly, a worthy son of the motherland the whole nation reveres.

The players are often called “freedom fighters” to underline their combative spirit, and Kapil Dev’s iconic bat is referred to as his “sword”: politically charged language which reverbs in calls from some Hindu leaders for Muslim genocide.

The female ideal is also depicted according to the nationalist view: Indian women should be dignified, docile and a possessor of superior spirituality.

Kapil Dev’s wife, Romi (Deepika Padukone), is a morale booster. She is a virtuous cheerleader who remains subordinate. Her responsibility is to remind the dispirited Kapil of the importance of his duty as she asks him to “play for that little boy inside you”.

This trope of the little boy, who embodies and helps channel the hopes and dreams of a young nation, is exploited throughout the film. This boy lends an air of innocence and purity to the cause of winning.

The audience is called on to align with his hopes and disappointment – and ultimately support the Indian heroes out there to win.

Typical of nationalist rhetoric, 83 depicts rival teams and other nationalities as caricatures. West Indies fans are invariably seen wearing bright prints and dancing to African drums – the Indian fans let go of differences and unite to support the team. The West Indies’ cricketers are chewing gum – the Indians are routinely speaking to their families on long distance calls.

This stereotyping aligns more with the current brand of Hindu nationalism, and less with the country’s dynamism of the 1980s.

Brand nationalism

Globally, Bollywood provides a lens to understand Indian culture and has proved to be India’s most effective soft power in maintaining diplomatic ties.

But in India, Bollywood often acts as an agent of the ideological work of the far-right nationalist government. Biopics and period films emphasise the cult of personality and celebrate patriotic feats.

Given the growing spectacle of communal violence in India and the increased popularity of depicting Bollywood heroes as mercenaries, one ought to question what 83 says to and about the audience.

83 is not simply a retelling of the story of a sports team. It is a product of both the emerging brand nationalism and Bollywood’s tapping into the political zeitgeist.

With its celebration of Hindu masculine power, 83 feels like a film which is working to win consent for the populist and controversial leader Narendra Modi
– and make the audience more susceptible to political manipulation and control.

Read more:
As pressure builds on India’s Narendra Modi, is his government trying to silence its critics?

Radhika Raghav does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Honour and masculine pride for the country: how the Bollywood sports biopic 83 furthers India’s nationalist cause – https://theconversation.com/honour-and-masculine-pride-for-the-country-how-the-bollywood-sports-biopic-83-furthers-indias-nationalist-cause-174783

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendan Keogh, Senior Lecturer, Queensland University of Technology

In 1979, a group of disgruntled Atari employees decided to quit and create their own company. Activision was the world’s first “third-party” game development company, producing and publishing titles for other companies’ platforms.

Fast-forward 43 years and the company that is now Activision Blizzard has been bought by one of the major platform owners in the industry, Microsoft, for a blistering US$68.7 billion dollars (around A$95.6 billion) – the largest sale in the history of the video game industry.

This sale is also massive in terms of the game franchises Microsoft now has control over; it now owns blockbuster franchises such as Call of Duty, Diablo, Starcraft, Candy Crush and World of Warcraft. And tens of millions of fans of these titles will now be wondering: what does this change in ownership mean for them?

Why now?

Big dollar acquisitions aren’t new in the video game industry. Activision Blizzard itself became one of the largest video game companies in 2008, when Activision merged with Blizzard in a US$18.9 billion dollar deal. Microsoft and Sony regularly buy successful pre-existing development studios to take over their intellectual properties (IP) and make them available exclusively on their platforms.

But Microsoft has become particularly aggressive in its approach. In the last decade alone it has made a number of high-profile purchases, including Minecraft developer Mojang in 2014 for US$2.5 billion, and Elder Scrolls and Doom publisher ZeniMax in 2020 for US$7.5 billion. With the Activision Blizzard acquisition, Microsoft is now the third-largest company in the industry, behind TenCent and Sony.

This is all part of Microsoft’s current video game business strategy, which is less about selling game products and more about increasing subscriptions to its Game Pass service. Similar to services like Netflix and Spotify, Game Pass gives subscribers access to a massive digital catalogue of games in exchange for a monthly fee.

In its announcement of the Activision Blizzard purchase, Microsoft also boasted Game Pass has surpassed 25 million users. With each user paying US$16 a month, that’s about US$400 million (or A$556 million) in monthly revenue.

With Activision Blizzard, Microsoft now owns a huge new range of franchises it can make available through Game Pass, attracting even more users.

Gaming landlords

If it wanted, Microsoft might even make these franchises only available through Game Pass, forcing customers away from other consoles like PlayStation and distribution platforms like Steam. In other words, it could pull consumers into its own exclusive sphere.

This is now a common strategy. Now, through subscription-based digital platforms, we have all stopped being owners of product and instead have become renters.

This is also true of individual video games. Call of Duty, Hearthstone, Fortnite (and many others) are no longer games that players purchase once, but are instead their own ecosystems in which players are encouraged to continuously spend money on battle passes, cosmetics and access to new content.

Meanwhile, the companies that own these titles can constantly farm new data from their millions of players, further increasing their company value.

With the purchase of Activision Blizzard, Microsoft has effectively purchased a city of existing renters in the player ecosystems of Call of Duty, Hearthstone, World of Warcraft and many other titles.

That’s tens of millions of players already committed to closed ecosystems, including many in the difficult-to-penetrate Chinese market playing Blizzard titles Hearthstone and World of Warcraft. All of these players can be farmed for more personal data and more rent.

Read more:
The war between Xbox and Playstation is no longer about consoles. It’s about winning your loyalty

So what does it mean for players and developers?

In the short term, probably not a whole lot.

Over the coming years, however, Microsoft might decide to keep more of these newly acquired franchises for its own platforms. For a PC player, this might simply mean having to transition away from Steam to the Microsoft Game Store if they want to access the franchises: an inconvenience, but hardly a radical change.

For PlayStation and Mac players, the situation could be more dire, and they might find themselves having to purchase a PC or an Xbox if they want to play new entries to these franchises in the future.

Some are also worried ongoing giant mergers will stifle creativity and innovation across the video game industry. But this is unlikely since the bulk of the revenue generated by the industry has always been concentrated in a relatively small number of risk-adverse companies.

In her book Global Games, researcher Aphra Kerr estimated that in 2015, the top ten video game companies accounted for 49% of the entire industry’s revenue. In spite of this concentration of capital, the creativity and innovation that produces new genres almost always emerges at the periphery, in much smaller, independent groups working with far fewer resources.

The explosion of new and diverse genres we’ve seen over the past decade occurred, in large part, because independent creators are now able to access far more powerful tools, such as game engines Unity and Unreal, and greater audiences through digital marketplaces, such as Steam or Xbox Game Pass.

The situation is far from ideal, but the companies that control most of the capital in the video game industry – and the companies that are the most innovative – have rarely been the same. So this latest acquisition is unlikely to stifle creativity.

But there’s more at stake in this historic sale. Activision Blizzard is facing accusations and lawsuits of harassment, abuse and sexism across its offices, and CEO Bobby Kotick has been under intense pressure to resign for months. Kotick is now set to walk away from the company with US$400 million; the allegations of a toxic workplace are now Microsoft’s responsibility to clean up.

Perhaps this is the important question coming out of the recent sale: not which piece of hardware will have access to which games, but whether Microsoft will take responsibility for improving the work culture and working conditions for game developers? We’ll have to wait and see.

Read more:
Activision Blizzard’s sexual harassment scandal is not a one-off for the gaming industry

Brendan Keogh has previously received funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Microsoft buys Activision Blizzard: with the video game industry under new management, what’s going to change? – https://theconversation.com/microsoft-buys-activision-blizzard-with-the-video-game-industry-under-new-management-whats-going-to-change-175433

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Heidi Norman, Professor, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, University of Technology Sydney

First Nations people please be advised this article speaks of racially discriminating moments in history, including the distress and death of First Nations people.

In early January, the prime minister and minister for Indigenous Australians announced their government would build a National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Cultural Precinct. The precinct will be known as “Ngurra”, a word meaning home, a place of belonging, inclusion.

The Ngurra precinct will encompass a new National Resting Place. The Resting Place will serve as a site for the care of Ancestral Remains returning from collections in Australia and around the globe whose cultural groups are unknown and are unable to make the journey home to Country.

The National Resting Place will be unique in the world, incorporating aspects of a memorial, repository, educational facility and research institute, but transcending all of these. For Indigenous people, it will provide an Indigenous-centred place to visit, care for and honour Ancestors.

The National Resting Place will also provide an opportunity for non-Indigenous Australians to reflect on the history and impact of their knowledge systems, laws, moral standards and practices in relation to Indigenous peoples.

Read more:
Mungo ancestral remains reburial proposal disrespects the Elders’ original vision

The Ngurra Precinct has the potential to be transformative in assisting our nation to discover a new perspective on what it means to be Australian.

As Ken Wyatt is the first Indigenous person to occupy the position of minister for Indigenous Australians, this is a significant legacy of his tenure. The National Resting Place is also a culmination of the work by generations of Indigenous peoples to stop the theft of bodies and advocate for the repatriation of thousands of remains stored in institutions around the world so they can be returned home.

Why a National Resting Place for Ancestral Remains?

Over a period spanning more than 200 years, Indigenous remains were collected as trophies of empire, in the interest of science and anthropology, and as “curios” of a supposedly dying race. Thousands of Ancestral Remains were exhumed without the consent of their descendants, in practices that went against the laws and moral codes for the treatment of deceased Europeans.

Historical reasoning for the collection of Ancestral Remains in Australia include:

“Discovery”

From 1770 onwards, the collection of Aboriginal remains was informed by ideas aligned with science and “discovery”. The collection and classification of people, plants and animals that occurred on expeditions of scientific discovery and empire expansion contributed to ideas of European “superiority”.

Imperialism

Aboriginal bodies also became “trophies of empire”. Leaders of First Nations’ resistance, such as the Pemulwuy and Yagan, were beheaded and their heads were sent to the United Kingdom. First Nations peoples’ Ancestral Remains were displayed by some frontier families on mantlepieces or used as cranial sugar bowls and ashtrays. The perception of Ancestral Remains as “rare” also contributed to their appeal to collectors and their market value in auction houses, where they were viewed as commodities.

“Racial science”

The increase in collecting First Nations peoples’ remains from the 1850s was also propelled by the rise in racial “science”. Overseas interest in Ancestral Remains stemmed largely from notions of a hierarchy of race, which perceived Indigenous Australians to be at or near the bottom of the racial order.

This mindset continued to cause harm throughout the 20th century. Despite growing condemnation of racial “science”, collecting of Ancestral Remains continued after the second world war.

Read more:
Will your grandchildren have the chance to visit Australia’s sacred trees? Only if our sick indifference to Aboriginal heritage is cured

The post-war era

In the wake of the second world war, atrocities committed in the name of science and eugenics reverberated throughout scientific institutions. Collections of Ancestral Remains had been carefully classified before. But after the war, they were bundled together in crates and boxes. This contributed to a further loss of the provenance and records of Ancestral Remains.

The DNA era

From around the late 1980s, Aboriginal remains held in collections were defended on the grounds they were of scientific interest. Breakthroughs in dating technologies offered the possibility of extracting scientific information about human evolution over longer timeframes, and the human genome project sought to provide a complete genetic blueprint of humanity.

Where earlier interest in Ancestral Remains sought to prove theories of evolution and racial hierarchy, scientists from the late 20th century argued their research would prove beneficial for the entire human race.

A key debate emerged in this period between some scientists and Indigenous people, who asserted their right to bury their ancestors.

Read more:
Friday essay: grief and things of stone, wood and wool

Decolonisation and recognition

By the 1970s, Aboriginal people were organising locally and nationally for land and a “rightful place” in the political life of the nation.

Independent Aboriginal organisations such as the since-disbanded Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Commission (ATSIC) and the Foundation for Aboriginal and Islander Research Action (FAIRA) were critical in advocating for the return of Ancestral Remains.

Calls for repatriation posed significant provocations to the history, role and purpose of collecting institutions. This led to the development of protocols and policies guiding repatriation in the 1980s.

The return of Ancestral Remains is now widespread, with many repatriations negotiated with community and family of origin. However, many remains are yet to find their way home. The precise number of Ancestral Remains in institutional and private collections has been difficult to determine.

Collections continue to be revealed, with recent information coming to light about Ancestral Remains in India and Russia, along with unknown numbers held in private collections around the world. Recent research commissioned by AIATSIS, and yet to be published, counted tens of thousand of remains awaiting return from public institutions in Australia and the world.

Ngurra’s National Resting Place will serve as an initial landing place for Ancestral Remains on their journey home. The National Resting Place will support community-led research to achieve the identification and repatriation of these remains, aiding their return to Country where possible.

Removed Ancestral Remains are powerful reminders of the historical dehumanisation, objectification and commodification of Indigenous peoples. The National Resting Place will enable this story to be more fully understood.

The story of the ideas and practices that informed the stealing of Indigenous bodies, as well as the long struggle by First Nations peoples to bring their Ancestors home, will finally gain national recognition through the Ngurra precinct.

Heidi Norman received funding from AIATSIS to write a history of the ideas for a national resting place. She is a member of AIATSIS and on the editorial board of their journal, Australian Aboriginal Studies (AAS).

Anne Maree Payne received funding from AIATSIS to examine truth-telling and the National Resting Place in the context of public infrastructure around the world dealing with trauma and respecting the deceased.

– ref. Ancestral Remains of First Nations people were once stolen for trophies. Now they will have a national resting place – https://theconversation.com/ancestral-remains-of-first-nations-people-were-once-stolen-for-trophies-now-they-will-have-a-national-resting-place-174537

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Karen Fox, Senior Research Fellow at the National Centre of Biography, Australian National University

Australia Day honours will be announced this week, and, if recent announcements are any indication, they are likely to generate considerable public debate.

In 2014, there was the reestablishment of knighthoods and damehoods in the Order of Australia under then prime minister Tony Abbott. The next year, Prince Philip was infamously awarded one of the revived titles.

The past decade has seen increasing scrutiny of the gender balance in the awards, while individual honours, such as those given to writer Bettina Arndt and tennis champion Margaret Court, have also drawn criticism.

This is not necessarily out of keeping with the longer history of the honours system. Australians have long been arguing about both the shape of the honours system, and how it ought to be used.

In my new book, Honouring a Nation, I provide the first detailed history of honours in Australia, from the First Fleet to 2021.

Should Australia have titles?

Australians have always been ambivalent about having an honours system that sets some people above others.

In particular, the question of whether titles of honour — like knighthood and damehood — are appropriate in an egalitarian democracy has been a mainstay of debates. A common argument in the Australian colonies before Federation was that such titles did not belong here. As the South Australian Kapunda Herald put it in 1890,

titular distinctions are not in sympathy with the spirit of young democracies, in which the reputation of known achievements is the most, if not the only, valued one.

Opposition to titles was not merely rhetorical. David Buchanan, a member of the New South Wales House of Assembly, tried on several occasions to get the house to pass resolutions against them. In April 1884, for instance, he made an unsuccessful motion that granting titles was

inconsistent with the spirit of our democratic institutions, and ought to be discontinued.

Of course, not everyone agreed — particularly if titles were merited rewards for real service or achievement, which might inspire others. Rockhampton’s Morning Bulletin in 1887, for example, considered it entirely appropriate

[t]o mark out a man who has distinguished himself above his fellows in the public service […] because it provokes emulation.

Women under-recognised

The paper’s reference to “a man” was not coincidental. In the 19th century, women were largely ineligible to receive honours or titles in their own right. By the final years of the century, some were advocating for this to change.

With the establishment of the Order of the British Empire — created in Britain as a means to reward the war services of the population in 1917 — women began to enter the honours system in significant numbers. Australians, too, received this new honour, as Australians received awards solely through the British system until 1975, when the Order of Australia was established.

Eerily familiar complaints about women’s poor treatment in honours lists were soon appearing, however. In 1930, Australian newspapers reported protests from women’s activists in Britain, who argued aviator Amy Johnson wasn’t given an award commensurate with her achievement of flying solo from England to Australia. The Women’s Freedom League described this as “inadequate and inappropriate”, while also expressing “disappointment” that “so few honors have been conferred on women”.

Such criticisms have been increasingly evident in Australia in recent years. In 2017, lobby group Honour a Woman was established to seek gender parity in the system.

While there is still some way to go, there have been signs of change. The proportion of recipients who are women has increased from 21% of the total in 1975 to 42% in 2020. And in June 2018 women outnumbered men in appointments to the highest grade, the Companion (AC), for the first time.

What type of service gets honoured?

One factor explaining women’s unequal experience of the honours system has been the tendency for local community service to be rewarded at the lower levels of the system. Meanwhile, contributions in professional fields like politics and business, which have historically been dominated by men, tended to attract higher-level awards.

Read more:
Whitlam didn’t really end our old honours system. We’re still handing Orders of Australia to the wrong people

Calls for better recognition of community work, and especially volunteers, are a common thread in conversations about honours. Research conducted for a federal government review of the system in 1995, for instance, showed Australians wanted the system to reward those who served the community, acted with heroism, or achieved medical or scientific advances – rather than those who simply did a prominent job.

Others across the decades have expressed their desire to see particular occupational fields attract more awards. Teachers, doctors and nurses, clergy, and those in the arts — as well as, more recently, those working on the COVID-19 frontlines — are among those who have been suggested at various times to deserve greater numbers of honours.

When the Queen visited in 1954

One of the most distinctive aspects of Australia’s experience of honours was the divide over their use between Labor and non-Labor parties for many years. While non-Labor governments regularly recommended Australians for British honours prior to the creation of the Order of Australia in 1975, Labor governments tended not to do so.

This divide led to a short but intense controversy in 1954, during the highly anticipated tour of Australia by Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip. As was common during such tours, the Queen issued a number of awards in connection with her visit, including to some involved in organising it.

In Victoria, however, then Labor premier John Cain blocked decorations for royal tour staff in his state. While Cain cited Labor’s “long-standing” policy against imperial honours in explanation, the leader of the Victorian Liberal Party, Henry Bolte, lambasted the decision as “stupid and ridiculous”.

Proxies for larger debates

The history of honours in Australia shows that, both before and after the creation of the Order of Australia as the nation’s own unique honour, Australians have been debating the system’s form, function and fairness.

These debates have often been proxies for other, larger conversations about identity and values, the country’s relationship to its British heritage, and concepts of merit and recognition.

The history of honours is, in many ways, a history of Australia itself.

Karen Fox does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. There have always been arguments about who gets what: the surprising history of Australia’s honours system – https://theconversation.com/there-have-always-been-arguments-about-who-gets-what-the-surprising-history-of-australias-honours-system-174768

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lyn Gilbert, Honorary Professor Faculty of Health and Medical Science, Univeristy of Sydney; Senior Researcher Sydney Institue for Infectious Disease, University of Sydney., University of Sydney

Australia’s aged care homes are being devastated by the current wave of COVID infections, with more than 1,100 outbreaks affecting over 7,000 residents and staff. Fear of outbreaks has prompted other homes to lock down and their residents are suffering the serious physical and psychological effects of isolation and, sometimes, inadequate care, due to major staff shortages.

Government responses to last May’s Aged Care Royal Commission’s recommendations have only begun to scratch the surface of longstanding problems in the aged care sector. Major workforce issues remain and responses of aged care providers to the threat of COVID in their facilities are highly variable.

Government decisions about broader community public health can have significant and damaging impacts on the health and well-being of aged care residents and staff.

A high risk group

Early in the COVID pandemic it became clear that residents of aged care homes were at high risk of serious illness and death. During 2020, Australia had a relatively low rate of COVID deaths at 3.6 per 100,000 population. However, three quarters of all deaths (685 of 910) were aged care residents, at a rate of around 309 per 100,000 residents.

Infections and deaths are not the whole story. Independent reviews of COVID outbreaks in agedcare identified other serious adverse effects of lockdowns.

Residents were confined to their rooms and visitors excluded. Family members were often unable to communicate with loved ones for weeks. Staff who were infected or close contacts were replaced by “surge” workers, many of whom had no experience in aged care or infection control. Many residents became depressed, confused, or deconditioned from lack of exercise.

In some homes, remaining staff were overwhelmed by excessive workloads and could not provide adequate care. Some were abused by angry relatives or vilified by the media.

A special report into COVID by the Aged Care Royal Commission, in September 2020, concluded

The COVID-19 pandemic has been the greatest challenge Australia’s aged care sector has faced […] Thousands of residents […] have endured months of isolation which has had a terrible effect on their physical, mental and emotional wellbeing.

Read more:
Older Australians are already bamboozled by a complex home-care system. So why give them more of the same?

What went wrong?

The reviews identified leadership and communication failures, shortages of properly trained staff and poor infection control as major problems – but there was wide variation between homes.

Support from commonwealth and state government agencies was essential during outbreaks – for public health and infection control advice, laboratory testing and staff replacements. But many homes were let down by poor communication and coordination, inadequate planning and preparation and contradictory advice.

Not much has changed

In response to the Royal Commission’s recommendations, the federal government promised nearly $18 billion in additional funding over five years – a fraction of what was recommended, and most of it yet to be allocated.

Aged care homes must now employ a nurse with approved infection control training, but their responsibilities and ongoing support and training remain undefined. There have been no moves to improve pay, working conditions or training of aged care workers, whose numbers have fallen since 2020.

Read more:
Budget package doesn’t guarantee aged-care residents will get better care

There is a plethora of advice from expert committees and government agencies but little information about how effectively or consistently it is being implemented. To date, about 90% of aged care residents and almost all aged care staff have received two vaccine doses but earlier delays in the vaccine rollout mean many are yet to receive boosters.

Despite improvements, the aged care sector is currently under extreme pressure. The number of homes with COVID outbreaks more than doubled between January 7 and 14.

There have been relatively few deaths, so far, but government assurances that Omicron is not significantly impacting residents’ health, contradicts reports from the frontline. Many facilities are in lockdown, whether or not there is an outbreak and staff shortages are critical.

The serious adverse effects of isolation and neglect are potentially as severe and more widespread than in 2020 and likely to contribute to premature deaths. Unlike cases and deaths from Omicron, they will not be documented as COVID-related but likely attributed to old age or other underlying conditions.

It is not clear whether political leaders who advocated lifting restrictions and “pushing through” the Omicron wave considered the human rights of aged care residents.

Read more:
Grattan on Friday: Scott Morrison’s ministerial team looks far from match-fit

An urgent need for reform and future planning

Measures introduced to protect the community from Omicron have been widely criticised as too little, too late and easing of restrictions too premature. Aged-care residents and other vulnerable groups have been disproportionately affected by the massive surge in community transmission. They will be again, in future waves, unless their needs are considered through more nuanced, proactive strategies than either “let it rip” or lockout/lockdown.

There is an urgent need for the Royal Commission’s recommendations to be fully implemented as soon as possible and for aged care reform to be coordinated with reform of the whole care system: hospitals, aged, disability and primary care, and public health.

The Royal Commission highlighted longstanding deficiencies in the aged care sector, but they can’t be fixed during a crisis. Aged care providers need support to build resilience and ensure service continuity. This will require significant financial commitment from government.

Addressing the aged care staff crisis will require an effective campaign – planned in consultation with frontline workers, managers and clients – to attract workers by offering better pay, conditions, training and career structures.

Lyn Gilbert (and Adj/Professor Alan Lilly) received funding from the Department of Health to undertake independent reviews of COVID-19 outbreaks in residential aged care facilities. The Department had no input into the selection of participants, interviews, survey or workshops conducted during the reviews or analysis and reporting of findings.

– ref. 1,100 Australian aged care homes are locked down due to COVID. What have we learnt from deaths in care? – https://theconversation.com/1-100-australian-aged-care-homes-are-locked-down-due-to-covid-what-have-we-learnt-from-deaths-in-care-175141

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jane Cunneen, Adjunct Research Fellow, Curtin University

The enormous eruption of the underwater volcano in Tonga, Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai, triggered a tsunami that reached countries all around the Pacific rim, even causing a disastrous oil spill along 21 beaches in Peru.

In Tonga, waves about 2 metres high were recorded before the sea level gauge failed, and waves of up to 15m hit the west coasts of Tongatapu Islands, ‘Eua, and Ha’apai Islands. Volcanic activity could continue for weeks or months, but it’s hard to predict if or when there’ll be another such powerful eruption.

Most tsunamis are caused by earthquakes, but a significant percentage (about 15%) are caused by landslides or volcanoes. Some of these may be interlinked – for example, landslide tsunamis are often triggered by earthquakes or volcanic eruptions.

But does climate change also play a role? As the planet warms, we’re seeing more frequent and intense storms and cyclones, the melting of glaciers and ice caps, and sea levels rising.
Climate change, however, doesn’t just affect the atmosphere and oceans, it affects the Earth’s crust as well.

Climate-linked geological changes can increase the incidence of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions which, in turn, can exacerbate the threat of tsunamis. Here are five ways this can happen.

1. Sea level rise

If greenhouse gas emissions remain at high rates, the average global sea level is projected to rise between 60 centimetres and 1.1m. Almost two thirds of the world’s cities with populations over five million are at risk.

Rising sea levels not only make coastal communities more vulnerable to flooding from storms, but also tsunamis. Even modest rises in sea level will dramatically increase the frequency and intensity of flooding when a tsunami occurs, as the tsunami can travel further inland.

For example, a 2018 study showed only a 50 centimetre rise would double the frequency of tsunami-induced flooding in Macau, China. This means in future, smaller tsunamis could have the same impact as larger tsunamis would today.

2. Landslides

A warming climate can increase the risk of both submarine (underwater) and aerial (above ground) landslides, thereby increasing the risk of local tsunamis.

The melting of permafrost (frozen soil) at high latitudes decreases soil stability, making it more susceptible to erosion and landslides. More intense rainfall can trigger landslides, too, as storms become more frequent under climate change.

Tsunamis can be generated on impact as a landslide enters the water, or as water is moved by a rapid underwater landslide.

Read more:
Waves from the Tonga tsunami are still being felt in Australia – and even a 50cm surge could knock you off your feet

In general, tsunami waves generated from landslides or rock falls dissipate quickly and don’t travel as far as tsunamis generated from earthquakes, but they can still lead to huge waves locally.

In Alaska, US, glacial retreat and melting permafrost has exposed unstable slopes. In 2015, this melting caused a landslide that sent 180 million tonnes of rock into a narrow fjord, generating a tsunami reaching 193m high – one of the highest ever recorded worldwide.

Other areas at risk include northwest British Columbia in Canada, and the Barry Arm in Alaska, where an unstable mountain slope at the toe of the Barry Glacier has the potential to fail and generate a severe tsunami in the next 20 years.

3. Iceberg calving and collapsing ice shelves

Global warming is accelerating the rate of iceberg calving – when chunks of ice fall into the ocean.

Studies predict large ice shelves, such as the Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica, will likely collapse in the next five to ten years. Likewise, the Greenland ice sheet is thinning and retreating at an alarming rate.

While much of the current research focus is on the sea level risk associated with melting and collapse of glaciers and ice sheets, there’s also a tsunami risk from the calving and breakup process.

Wandering icebergs can trigger submarine landslides and tsunamis thousands of kilometres from the iceberg’s original source, as they hit unstable sediments on the seafloor.

4. Volcanic activity from ice melting

About 12,000 years ago, the last glacial period (“ice age”) ended and the melting ice triggered a dramatic increase in volcanic activity.

The correlation between climate warming and more volcanic eruptions isn’t yet well constrained or understood. But it may be related to changes in stress to the Earth’s crust as the weight of ice is removed, and a phenomenon called “isostatic rebound” – the long-term uplift of land in response to the removal of ice sheets.

If this correlation holds for the current period of climate warming and melting of ice in high latitudes, there’ll be an increased risk of volcanic eruptions and associated hazards, including tsunamis.

5. Increased earthquakes

There are a number ways climate change can increase the frequency of earthquakes, and so increase tsunami risk.

First, the weight of ice sheets may be suppressing fault movement and earthquakes. When the ice melts, the isostatic rebound (land uplift) is accompanied by an increase in earthquakes and fault movement as the crust adjusts to the loss of weight.

We may have seen this already in Alaska, where melting glaciers reduced the stability of faults, inducing many small earthquakes and possibly the magnitude 7.2 St Elias earthquake in 1979.

Another factor is low air pressure associated with storms and typhoons, which studies have also shown can trigger earthquakes in areas where the Earth’s crust is already under stress. Even relatively small changes in air pressure can trigger fault movements, as an analysis of earthquakes between 2002 and 2007 in eastern Taiwan identified.

So how can we prepare?

Many mitigation strategies for climate change should also include elements to improve tsunami preparedness.

This could include incorporating projected sea level rise into tsunami prediction models, and in building codes for infrastructure along vulnerable coastlines.

Researchers can also ensure scientific models of climate impacts include the projected increase in earthquakes, landslides and volcanic activity, and the increased tsunami risk this will bring.

Read more:
What causes a tsunami? An ocean scientist explains the physics of these destructive waves

Jane Cunneen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. 5 ways climate change boosts tsunami threat, from collapsing ice shelves to sea level rise – https://theconversation.com/5-ways-climate-change-boosts-tsunami-threat-from-collapsing-ice-shelves-to-sea-level-rise-175247

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ema Moolchand, PhD Candidate, RMIT University

Australian Day barbecues are under threat as Omicron infections continue to cripple meat-processing operations.

Most off the menu are chicken dishes. Australia’s biggest poultry processor Ingham’s (with a 40% market share) has had to stop producing some items and curtail production of others. It’s affecting clients such as KFC, and supermarket meat shelves are largely bare. The Australian Chicken Meat Federation said last week breast fillets, drumsticks and chicken wings will be hard to find for at least several weeks.

The response of employers and government has been to relax health protocols for meat workers, reducing isolation times and keeping them on the line if they have been in contact with someone infected with COVID-19, or indeed even if they have the virus themselves.

Teys Australia told COVID-positive staff at its Naracoorte beef abattoir in South Australia on January 9 they were required to work “as normal unless you are feeling unwell”.

The Australian Meat Industry Employees Union warned this would see all 400 workers at the site infected. Woolworths, concerned about the bad look, suspended supplies from the abattoir (which resumed last week).

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This crisis in the industry was entirely predictable. Employers and the government should have seen it coming. Now, having failed to pursue reforms that could have helped mitigate it, they are grasping at quick fixes that compound the underlying problem.

It’s as if nothing has been learned from the outbreaks of COVID-19 in meat-processing facilities in Australia and elsewhere since 2020.

Meat works as transmission hotspots

In 2020, meat-processing facilities ranked alongside cruise ships and health-care facilities as hotspots for COVID-19 transmission in Australia. Abattoirs were the major initial source of infections for the June infection wave in Melbourne that led to Victoria’s 112-day lockdown.

Things were the same elsewhere. In the US, researchers have estimated meat-processing plants were associated with 6-8% of COVID-19 cases and 3-4% of deaths from early 2020 to July 2021. This is a highly disproportionate number given the industry employs less than 0.15% of the US population.

In that time, according to an analysis published by Reuters this month, 90% of the plants owned by the five biggest meat-processing companies had COVID-19 cases.

The experience in other countries reflects this to a greater or lesser degree – with infection outbreaks in Brazil, Canada, France, Germany and Spain.

High-risk environment

Numerous studies have shown working conditions in meat-processing plants are ideal for spreading COVID-19.

The low temperatures and low humidity of food-processing facilities increase viral transmission, while the poor air quality increases the prevalence of respiratory disorders, which means workers are more susceptible to illness if infected. The rate of asthmatic symptoms among chicken-processing workers, for example, has been estimated as being four times that of all adults.

These risks are heightened by working in close proximity to others on production lines where the work is physically demanding and the pace hectic.

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Workplace transmissions: a predictable result of the class divide in worker rights

Insecure work, exploitable workers

The poor working conditions are exacerbated by the prevalence of labour-hire practices that make it difficult for workers to stand up for their rights.

Few workers are employed as permanent employees. Statistics from a 2015 report by the Australian Meat Processor Corporation put the percentage of the workforce on casual contracts at 20%, with no sick leave benefits and the ability to be sacked “on any given day part-way through a shift”. The rest were “daily hires”, able to be sacked with a day’s notice.

Read more:
Treating workers like meat: what we’ve learnt from COVID-19 outbreaks in abattoirs

Submissions to the Senate’s select committee inquiry into job security suggest industry employment practices have not improved since then.

The submission from the Australasian Meat Industry Employees Union argues Australian processors have sought to replicate the industry in North America in using a migrant workforce to undermine wages and conditions, on the basis non-English-speaking migrants are vulnerable to exploitation, and to manipulation and intimidation over visa status concerns.

Real reform needed

Putting meat workers in greater jeopardy should not have been the solution to the poor working conditions and practices that have made meat-processing facilities high-risk vectors for COVID-19 transmission.

These conditions were well-documented and understood. This current crisis should have been foreseeable, even allowing for the Omicron variant.

Other major meat-producing countries have taken structural legal reforms and collaborative initiatives to address these risks.

In Denmark, sub-contractors and casual workers are paid the same wages as directly employed staff, and meat plant workers receive up to five weeks paid holidays a year.

In 2020, Germany banned the subcontracting of workers for core businesses in the meat processing industry in 2020.

It’s not too late for Australia to follow these examples and make meaningful reforms that can reduce the likelihood of this mistake being repeated, by ensuring better working conditions across the meat industry.

Shelley Marshall receives funding from the Australian Research Council to research the meat-processing industry.

Ema Moolchand does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Where’s the meat? Employers and governments should have seen this supply crisis coming, and done something – https://theconversation.com/wheres-the-meat-employers-and-governments-should-have-seen-this-supply-crisis-coming-and-done-something-175144

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elise Schubert, Pharmacist and PhD Candidate, University of Sydney

On Thursday, health minister Greg Hunt announced Australia’s drug regulator had provisionally approved two new medicines for the treatment of COVID.

These are Lagevrio, made by American pharmaceutical company Merck Sharpe & Dohme, and Paxlovid, by Pfizer.

With the number of hospitalisations and deaths due to the virus continuing to rise, the approval of these drugs comes at a good time.

The federal government has purchased a combined 800,000 courses of the pills, and said the drugs will initially be prioritised for the elderly and other high risk groups.

Both companies say their drugs will work against the Omicron variant, though this is based on preliminary lab-based research.

What are they and how do they work?

Merck’s Lagevrio (generic name: molnupiravir) is an antiviral drug that causes errors to be copied into the COVID virus whenever it replicates. This makes the virus less effective in causing disease.

Read more:
Take-at-home COVID drug molnupiravir may be on its way — but vaccination is still our first line of defence

Pfizer’s Paxlovid is a two tablet combination of a new drug called nirmatrelvir, and a drug already used to treat HIV called ritonavir.

Nirmatrelvir stops the function of a key protein the virus needs to replicate itself, while ritonavir is there to stop the body from breaking down nirmatrelvir.

According to clinical trial data, Lagevrio and Paxlovid are useful in reducing viral load, the severity of COVID symptoms, and thus, the number of people hospitalised and/or dying from the virus.

Many of Omicron’s concerning mutations are on the “spike protein”, which is what the coronavirus uses to enter our cells. So one reason these drugs are still expected to be effective against variants like Omicron is they don’t target the spike protein.

Are these medications effective against Omicron?

This week Pfizer published a media release detailing preliminary results suggesting Paxlovid is still effective against the Omicron variant.

The results of two laboratory studies by Pfizer researchers and released as pre-prints (yet to be reviewed by other scientists) shows that the nirmatrelvir can interrupt viral replication across all COVID variants of concern.

One independent lab-based study released online as a pre-print looked at both Pfizer and Merck’s drugs.

It found the key drug in Pfizer’s Paxlovid, nirmatrelvir, is still active against its protein target in Omicron, and can still reduce overall viral load.

The study also found Merck’s Lagevrio showed activity against Omicron. The president of Merck Research Laboratories said the company is very confident Lagevrio will be effective against Omicron.

It’s important to note this research was undetaken in a lab, so we’re still yet to see data on how effective it is in people with Omicron under real world conditions. With both drugs approved in the United States and United Kingdom earlier than Australia, it’s likely we’ll see in-person outcomes data on the effectiveness and safety of these drugs in the near future.

In clinical trials, before Omicron emerged, Paxlovid reduced the risk of hospitalisation and death by 88% in high-risk patients, and Lagevrio by 31%.

What are the side effects?

It’s important to note no medicine is perfectly safe and side effect free.

From clinical trials so far, we know fewer than 7% of patients taking Lagevrio experienced a serious side effect. Commonly reported were diarrhoea, nausea, and dizziness.

Different side effects were observed with Paxlovid, such as vomiting, diarrhoea, and headache, and fewer than 2% of patients in the trials experienced a serious side effect.

The risk of side effects with Paxlovid can be higher if patients are also taking other medicines at the same time. The list of medications that shouldn’t be taken with Paxlovid includes some anti-cancer, anti-inflammatory and cardiovascular medications, and even some herbal medicines such as St John’s Wort.

Am I eligible for these treatments?

Vulnerable people such as the elderly and aged care residents will be prioritised for access to the medication.

The government hasn’t stated when it expects other groups of people may be able to get the medicines, possibly due to the limited number of courses the government has purchased and because of supply difficulties being experienced in other countries.

Lagevrio and Paxlovid are both oral tablets which may mean you’ll be able take these at home, rather than spending time in hospital.

For both drugs, the tablets must be commenced as soon as possible and within five days of the first symptoms for them to be of any use.

Both medicines have also only been approved for use in adults. There’s no clinical trial data on the safety of Lagevrio or Paxlovid in children so we don’t know how effective and safe they would be in this age group.

There’s also uncertainty as to the potential impact either medicine may have on pregnancy and breastfeeding, so the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) advises patients avoid these medicines in these circumstances. The TGA also recommends avoiding becoming pregnant soon after the use of either medicine.

How and where can you get them?

We don’t yet know whether people can obtain a prescription from any general practitioner or whether only specific doctors will be able to prescribe them (for example, geriatric specialists).

The government says the first deliveries of these medicines will arrive “over the coming weeks”.

The health minister also said both medicines will be free for patients.

Despite the promising treatment opportunity these drugs provide in the fight against COVID, vaccination will still remain the front line of defence against the virus.

Elise Schubert is a registered pharmacist and a PhD Candidate receiving scholarship from the University of Sydney and Canngea Pty Ltd.

Associate Professor Kellie Charles is a Director of the Board of the Australasian Society of Clinical and Experimental Pharmacologists and Toxicologists (ASCEPT). She has previously held research grants and provided research advice to Johnson and Johnson (unrelated to the products discussed here).

Associate Professor Wheate in the past has received funding from the ACT Cancer Council, Tenovus Scotland, Medical Research Scotland, Scottish Crucible, and the Scottish Universities Life Sciences Alliance. He is Fellow of the Royal Australian Chemical Institute and a member of the Australasian Pharmaceutical Science Association. Nial is the science director of Canngea Pty Ltd, chief scientific officer of Vairea Skincare LLC, a board director of the Australian Medicinal Cannabis Association, and a Standards Australia panel member for sunscreen agents.

– ref. Australia approves two new medicines in the fight against COVID. How can you get them and are they effective against Omicron? – https://theconversation.com/australia-approves-two-new-medicines-in-the-fight-against-covid-how-can-you-get-them-and-are-they-effective-against-omicron-175321

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Maguire-Rosier, Honorary Associate, Department of Theatre and Performance Studies, School of Literature, Art, and Media, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, University of Sydney

Review: Yung Lung, choreographed by Antony Hamilton, Chunky Move

The word “yung”, according to the urban language dictionary, variously means “dope” or “cool” as popularised in the Chico area of California, a “legend” or (my favourite) a “lowercase god”.

The lung of course is a vital organ, but also metonymic for an open space in the city where dwellers may breathe fresh air.

In turn, then, the term “yung lung” might refer to a rebel’s breath – or their sanctuary.

A grand orchestral overture announces people standing like action figures atop a grotesque monster’s head-shaped rock. Oozing anarchy, the group is styled with bleached, shaved or braided hair and skintight clothing flashing neon yellow.

The aesthetic summons that of Mad Max or The Bad Batch.

A virtual sunrise on a dozen TV monitors, displayed outwards in a panopticon-like circle surrounding the rock, accompanies the string instruments and the defiant looks on the performers’ faces.

As the bodies start to travel around the rock, we circle it too, as if two packs of wolves – cautiously suspicious, slightly hesitant but mostly curious.

Music becomes operatic and the image of gladiators at the Colosseum appears as a woman at the rock’s zenith raises her arm gloriously. Other arms stretch outwards and the figures climb, hang, swing and pose, physically domineering. Fierce facial expressions scare an absent enemy and posturing bodies overemphasise their musculature.

Shared aliveness

Chunky Move’s radical immersive experience, choreographed and directed by Antony Hamilton, is a dance manifesto that borrows from Black and Queer clubbing to expose – and make fun of – today’s existential crises.

The work’s visceral effort reasserts a shared aliveness in the here and now.

The standout element is Chiara Kickdrum’s thrashing soundscape, inviting the audience into a trance. Light by Bosco Shaw, video by Kris Moyes, Hamilton and Nickolas Moloney, costumes by P.A.M. and set design by Callum Morton work solidly together to produce surreal scenes that unfurl in the heart of the space.

But it is the fervent performance of the cast emboldened by the soundscape and punctuated by vogue and waacking who render the rave mesmerising and wondrously odd.

The mood shifts slightly when a young woman hugs herself. Another hangs suspended upside down like an infant from monkey bars in a park playground. I see now a Mardi Gras float travelling down Sydney’s Oxford Street in late summer as a slender man with a ponytail places one hand on hip looking down at the crowd, mouth ever so slightly ajar, sexually titillating.

The virtual sun repeated on the monitors has nearly set, and I notice a rainbow lightshow behind.

A woman crushes her face into a scowl and sticks out her tongue as if the star of a death metal band. We are her fans, but also the system that criticises her for glamorising violence.

Clearly, the group wants to captivate us.

My attention snaps back to the images flickering on screen. Burning cigarettes. A cityscape. Volcanic lava. The book title Devolution of Mankind. The solar system. Japanese animé. Military activities. Green palm trees against blue sky. A dead dog on a beach stared at by young boys. Later, on every second screen, Ned Kelly full body shot in the bush. Pop-art depictions of the Kremlin, unfamiliar yet quintessentially Andy Warhol. A blackout.

On screen, human heads mutate. On the rock, bodies pick up pace, glued to the sculpture like insects in formation. A thumping beat cuts the air in sharp bursts, speeding up the tempo and movement. Bodies bounce with hip-hop gestures. In sync, two women explicitly sign “eat my dick”.

Video recalls my gaze. The furious onslaught of images reveals otherwise non-memorable scenes from cult pop culture. One pair flashing to and fro, however, stings: a duet of sorts between a heavily pixelated quadruped robot Spot and a headshot of a Black man – is it Martin Luther King? The images flicker back and forth, passing by too quickly to tell. I am acutely aware of the lure of the screen, accentuating the liveness of bodies in space. And aggressive drums storming the space now seem like gunshots.

Read more:
Is ‘Spot’ a good dog? Why we’re right to worry about unleashing robot quadrupeds

The presence of the live performers is heightened by the mediatised spectacle; the relationship between the two is key to the concept, integrity and rigour of this artwork. And this is in spite of their competing for dominance from one moment to the next.

The slanted text disappearing into the universe at the beginning of every Star Wars movie, “Since the beginning…” gives way to the thought of science fiction creating reality. Are the dancers trying to sell us this violent world? These spoiled images, decomposed like off fruit? Dancers hold neon poles, baby blue just like Anakin Skywalker’s lightsaber. “Jupiter” reads the label graffitied on one dancer’s trouser leg. Poles now burn red like Darth Vader’s lightsaber, one raised under a dancer’s eyes like a child with a torch telling a ghost story in a circle of friends.

Dancers exit like robots streaked through the crowd. And a final question flurries through my mind: “or was the Black face George Floyd?”

Yung Lung is at Carriageworks for Sydney Festival until January 23, then at the Substation in Melbourne from February 1 to 12.

Kate Maguire-Rosier does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. When humans compete with television, Yung Lung proves the liveness of bodies wins out – https://theconversation.com/when-humans-compete-with-television-yung-lung-proves-the-liveness-of-bodies-wins-out-173986

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Edmund Wedam Kanmiki, PhD Candidate, The University of Queensland

School holidays can be a special time for extended families to gather. Children may see their grandparents at seasonal gatherings or as part of childcare arrangements to help working parents. New research suggests the biology, environment and the food they share contributes to children’s future health.

According to the World Health Organization, 39 million children under five years are overweight. Some 25% of Australian children and adolescents are overweight or obese.

How parents contribute to their offspring’s obesity risk is well established but the link between grandparents and grandchildren has been less clear. Our systematic review of studies involving more than 200,000 people around the world confirms obesity is transmitted across multiple generations of families. We still need to figure out why and how to break this cycle.

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Setting up for a lifetime of health issues

Obesity among children and adolescents is associated with developing health problems. These include high blood pressure, cholesterol imbalance, insulin resistance, diabetes mellitus, accelerated growth and maturity, orthopaedic difficulties, psychosocial problems, increased risk of heart disease and premature mortality.

We examined the current global evidence on the association between grandparents who are overweight or obese and the healthy weight status of their grandchildren. We looked at 25 studies that involved 238,771 people from 17 countries. The combined data confirms obesity is transmitted multigenerationally – not just from parent to child but also from grandparent to grandchild.

We found children whose grandparents are obese or overweight are almost twice as likely to be obese or overweight compared to those whose grandparents are “normal” weight.

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Nature and nurture?

Further research is needed into how children’s obesity status is influenced by their grandparents but there are likely two pathways at work. The influence could be indirect via parents’ genes or occur directly through the roles played by grandparents in children’s upbringing.

Let’s start with biological factors. Both egg and sperm cells contain molecules that respond to the nutritional intake of parents. This means traits that are susceptible to high weight gain can be passed on from grandparents to parents and then to their grandchildren. And evidence shows genetics, environmental factors, lifestyle and eating habits all play key roles in predisposing individuals to obesity.

What we eat and feed our family members can lead to the expression of certain genetic traits (a term referred to as epigenetics) which can then be transferred to successive generations. Due to shared familial, genetic, and environmental factors, obesity tends to aggregate within immediate families and studies have consistently reported an intergenerational transmission of obesity from parents to children.

Food intake can also influence health and biology across multiple generations. In Sweden, a study reported adequate food for paternal grandparents at ten years of age reduced heart disease and diabetes and increased longevity among their grandchildren.

Food and family

So, grandparents’ weight status and choices about what and how much is eaten in their home could influence their grandchildren’s weight directly or via the children’s parents. These influences may be greater or less significant depending on the role grandparents play as primary care givers or in shared living arrangements. According to the recent Australia’s Seniors’ survey, one in every four Australian grandparents provides primary care to their grandchildren.

Grandparents’ role as caregivers significantly affects children’s healthy eating knowledge, attitude, and behaviours. This might be seen in the meals shared, recipes passed down or special treats for loved ones. Such habits can add to childhood obesity risks, above and beyond genetic factors.

Read more:
More than one in four Aussie kids are overweight or obese: we’re failing them, and we need a plan

Working on prevention

Our research shows the importance of including grandparents in obesity prevention strategies. In addition to parents, grandparents could be oriented to provide guidance on responsible feeding, recognising hunger and fullness, setting limits, offering healthy foods and using repeated exposure to promote acceptance. They can help encourage regular exercise and discourage coercive feeding practices on their grandchildren.

While our study shows a multigenerational link in the transmission of obesity, most of the available evidence comes from high-income countries – predominantly America and European countries. More studies, especially from low-income countries, would be helpful.

Further investigation into the effect of grandparents on grandchildren’s obesity across different races and ethnicities is also needed. Grandparents have varied social and cultural roles in the upbringing of their grandchildren around the world. More data could help design effective obesity prevention programs that recognise the vital importance of grandparents.

Edmund Wedam Kanmiki does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Abdullah Mamun receives funding from NHMRC, ARC, Queensland Health, and Health and Wellbeing Queensland.

Yaqoot Fatima received funding from NHMRC, MRFF, Western Queensland Primary Health Network, Tropical Australian Academic Health Centre, Queensland Health, and Health and Wellbeing Queensland. She is a member of the Indigenous Sleep Health Working Party of the Australasian Sleep Association.

– ref. Kids whose grandparents are overweight are almost twice as likely to struggle with obesity – https://theconversation.com/kids-whose-grandparents-are-overweight-are-almost-twice-as-likely-to-struggle-with-obesity-173739

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Catherine Speck, Professorial Fellow (Honorary), The University of Melbourne

In the past ten days Australia has lost two important artworld figures. Both were senior artists working in Adelaide but with a reach extending far beyond the city or the nation.

Celebrated feminist artist, Ann Newmarch OAM, born June 9 1945, passed away on Thursday January 13 2022.

Hossein Valamanesh AM, born March 2 1949, died suddenly on January 15, just weeks before he and his partner Angela Valamanesh are due to exhibit their work in the Adelaide Biennial of Australian Art – Free/State at the Art Gallery of South Australia.

Although they work in mostly different genres, a similar sense of restraint imbues the work of each, and both artists are equally celebrated.

Vale Ann Newmarch

The life and career of Newmarch was marked by political activism, and her energy in steering community projects such as the anti-rape mural Reclaim the Night (1980) and the Prospect Mural Group’s postcolonial History of Australia (1982).

In 1969, she joined the staff of the South Australian School of Art, and while continuing in the tradition of a long line of women lecturers, her appointment was different. She ushered in the optimism and “voice” second-wave feminism gave women artists and over three decades she mentored female students who in turn have had brilliant careers.

In 1974, Newmarch was a founding member of the politically-active Progressive Art Movement (PAM) and, in 1976, of Adelaide’s Women’s Art Movement. In each she pushed the boundaries of the print medium to develop an accessible art form. In PAM, along with Mandy Martin, Newmarch produced political posters in her Prospect studio advocating for change such as a nationalised car industry and Australian Independence.

As an artist and mother of three young children in the 1970s and 1980s, her work across all media areas epitomises second-wave feminism’s mantra “the personal is political”. Her Three months of interrupted work, shown in WAMs ground-breaking 1977 exhibition, The Women’s Show, best describes the juggling act of domestic labour, motherhood and working as an artist.

Her children became her subjects, along with pressing social issues such as damage to the landscape from atomic testing and uranium mining as in Maralinga: poisoned rations (1988).

Later in life, she confronted the invisibility of ageing women in a powerful series Risking 50 (1995).

Newmarch’s 1978 print Women hold up half the sky!, the title a riff on Mao Zedong’s famous phrase, was the only Australian work selected for the all-important 2007 Los Angeles exhibition WACK! Art and the Feminist Revolution. It featured again in the National Gallery of Australia’s 2021 exhibition Know My Name.

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Her work is held by all major public and private collections, and she was the first woman artist honoured by a major retrospective at the Art Gallery of South Australia in 1997. She was awarded a Medal of the Order of Australia for her services to the Arts in 1989.

Colleagues have taken to social media with the words:

Rest in Power Ann Newmarch: one of the great Australian second-wave feminist artists.

Vale Hossein Valamanesh

Hossein Valamanesh, was born in Iran and educated at the School of Art in Tehran, and immigrated to Australia in 1973.

From his initial base in Perth, he travelled to remote Aboriginal communities in 1974 where his brush with an ancient culture resonated with his age-old Persian heritage. He relocated to Adelaide the following year, and attended the South Australian School of Art.

By 1997, he synthesised his connection to place in Longing belonging by lighting a campfire on Persian rug placed in the Australian bush. The charred burnt circle of the rug stands testament to his dual identities.

Valamanesh’s work is known and loved for its spare aesthetic sensibility, parred back form and poetic visual imagery. His materials are frequently found natural materials: ochres, sands, stones and leaves, branches and twigs animated by a Sufi philosophy exploring the ineffable and the impermanent underpinned by Persian poetry.

A shadow of the human form is an enduring theme, as in his wall piece Untitled (1995) consisting in a folded shirt made from lotus leaves set against a Sufi love poem painted in the shape of human shadow (when viewed diagonally). Beneath the philosophy, mathematics is inevitably at play in his work.

Over five decades, in sculpture, painting, installation and video (recently with his son Nassiem at Buxton Contemporary) Valamanesh’s work explores the paradoxes of selfhood, existence and being. Collaborative work with his wife Angela Valamenesh includes several public art commissions including the Fourteen pieces (2005) outside the South Australian Museum, referencing the vertebrae of an extinct marine reptile in the museum’s collection.

Hossein’s work is held in national and international collections and he was a prolific international exhibitor, with his work currently on show in a major solo exhibition Puisque tout passe (This Will Also Pass), at the Institut des Cultures d’Islam in Paris.

His numerous awards include an Order of Australia (with Angela) in 2010 for outstanding artistic practice, and he too was a generous mentor of young artists. His contemplative work will live on, he has been described as “a finder of beautiful things in a world that hides them well”.

Catherine Speck received ARC funding to research Australian art exhibitions.

– ref. Australian art has lost two of its greats. Vale Ann Newmarch and Hossein Valamanesh – https://theconversation.com/australian-art-has-lost-two-of-its-greats-vale-ann-newmarch-and-hossein-valamanesh-175435

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Karen Scott, Professor in Law, University of Canterbury

Since the catastrophic volcanic eruption on January 16, Tonga has been largely cut off from the world due to a break in the undersea cable that links Tonga with Fiji (and from there with the world). A complete fix may take weeks.

Aside from the distress and inconvenience this is causing, Tonga’s predicament demonstrates a more general vulnerability of our global communication system.

Over 95% of the world’s data travels along the 436 submarine cables – around 1.3 million kilometres long in total – that connect all continents except Antarctica. These cables carry data integral to the internet, communication, and financial and defence systems worldwide.

There are natural hazards, as the Tonga eruption so graphically demonstrated. But the greatest threat to submarine cables is from fishing. Despite the cables being clearly marked on maritime charts, about 70% of damage is caused accidentally by gear such as trawl nets, dredges, long lines and fish aggregation devices.

But there is also concern that the cables are increasingly vulnerable to terrorism and cyberwarfare by private and state actors. As the head of the UK’s armed forces warned very recently:

Russian submarine activity is threatening underwater cables that are crucial to communication systems around the world.

An outdated convention

Given their fundamental importance to modern global communication, then, it would be natural to assume the international rules protecting submarine cables have been revised to respond to new technology and new challenges.

Not so. The international legal regime for protecting and managing submarine cables has remained largely unchanged since 1884 when the Convention for the Protection of Submarine Telegraph Cables was adopted. It remains in force today, with 36 party states (including New Zealand and Australia, which acceded in 1888 and 1901 respectively).

Read more:
Why the volcanic eruption in Tonga was so violent, and what to expect next

The convention makes it an offence to break or damage a submarine cable, wilfully or by culpable negligence (unless such action is necessary to save life). It also provides that only the state within which a vessel is registered (the “flag state”) can take action against its vessels and those on board.

If the owner of a cable breaks or damages another cable when laying or repairing their own, they must bear the cost of repairing the breakage or damage. Vessel owners who sacrifice an anchor, net or other fishing gear to avoid damaging a cable can receive compensation from the owner of the cable.

Who controls a cable?

These provisions go back to not long after the first international submarine communication cable was laid between Britain and France in 1850 – it was destroyed by a French fishing vessel within 24 hours.

By 1858, the age of submarine cables and international communication had begun with the laying of the first transatlantic cable connecting Britain and the US, although it failed after about a month and was replaced in 1866.

In 1902, the so-called “All Red” route linked New Zealand and Australia with Vancouver through the Pacific Ocean and on to Europe through the Trans-Canada and Atlantic lines.

In 1986, the first fibre optic cable was laid between the UK and Belgium, beginning the modern revolution in global communication.

Read more:
The Tonga volcanic eruption has revealed the vulnerabilities in our global telecommunication system

The 19th-century principles governing undersea cables have since been incorporated into the modern law of the sea, codified by the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), ratified by 168 nations.

Under UNCLOS all states have a right to lay cables and pipelines on the seabed and continental shelf up to the 12 nautical mile limit. To run a cable to shore through another state’s territorial sea, a state needs the permission of the coastal state.

But beyond the territorial sea, the power of the coastal state to prevent or impose conditions on where a cable is laid is extremely limited. The 1884 convention rules relating to offences and liability have been incorporated into UNCLOS with minimal amendment.

Time for modern laws

There are a number of problems with the current rules. First, outside of the territorial sea, the only state that can take action against a vessel that breaks a cable is the vessel’s own flag state.

While some flag states are responsible and have adopted appropriate legislation – as New Zealand has done with the Submarine Cables and Pipelines Protection Act 1996 – many others have not.

Moreover, the state with an interest in the cable – through ownership or because the cable ultimately connects to its shore – is normally not able take action against a vessel damaging the cable.

Read more:
Undersea internet cables connect Pacific islands to the world. But geopolitical tension is tugging at the wires

Generally, the law does not address issues such as physical separation between different cables or their distance from other undersea activities such as mining. Nor does it cover maintaining consistent information on maritime charts, or co-ordination between industries and states.

The International Cable Protection Committee, a private organisation comprising 180 state and commercial members representing 97% of the world’s submarine telecom cables, issued a voluntary guide to best practice in 2021 that addressed some of these issues – but is this enough?

Given the potentially catastrophic impact on communications, the economy and defence of losing major cables to accident or nefarious activity, the answer is arguably no. The rules, largely unchanged since 1884, need modernising.

Karen Scott does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Laws governing undersea cables have hardly changed since 1884 – Tonga is a reminder they need modernising – https://theconversation.com/laws-governing-undersea-cables-have-hardly-changed-since-1884-tonga-is-a-reminder-they-need-modernising-175312

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anastasia Hronis, Clinical Psychologist, University of Technology Sydney

If you’ve ever tried to make new friends as an adult, you’ll probably see why loneliness is at an all-time high. Making new friends feels just plain hard.

In school, making friends can be as simple as going on the monkey bars together. But as adults, making, developing and maintaining friendships can be much more difficult.

This matters, because we need friends. And while old friends are golden, nothing stays the same forever. Old friends move away, or have their time taken up by child-rearing or their careers. Without action, loneliness can quietly grow around you. It’s worth taking seriously, because evidence now suggests chronic loneliness can be lethal – the equivalent impact of 15 cigarettes a day on mortality rates.

It’s not just you, either. In many countries, loneliness is at epidemic proportions. And that was before COVID-19 made it much harder for us to see our friends.

The challenge of trust

Before COVID, around a third of Australians reported feeling at least one episode of loneliness. Since COVID brought widespread disruption to our work and social lives, loneliness has soared. Surveys now find over half (54%) of Australians report experiencing greater loneliness since the start of the pandemic.

As we reach for a new COVID-normal, it’s worth taking stock of your friendships – and assess whether you feel your social life is fine, or could use a little help.

When researchers interviewed adults about making friends in a recent study, the most important challenge cited was a lack of trust. That is, people found it harder to put their trust in someone new and fully invest in them as a friend compared to when they were younger.

Read more:
‘I tell everyone I love being on my own, but I hate it’: what older Australians want you to know about loneliness

Perhaps that’s why many people try to keep their circle of old friends as long as possible, given the trust they may have built up over many years.

Who found it harder? Women were more likely than men to say they didn’t make new friends easily because they struggled to trust others.

So what is it about adulthood? Well, as adults, we have greater self-awareness than children. While that is often a positive, it also means we’re more aware of the risks of being judged by others, of not being liked, of being rejected, and of being hurt. Or perhaps it just means we’ve been through high school and our 20s.

If we’ve had previous rejections as friends or suffered a breach of trust, we may find it harder to be trusting of others in the future. To trust a new friend means opening ourselves up and being vulnerable, just as we do in relationships.

Friendships need time

After the trust issue comes time. “Lack of time” was the second-most common reason people gave after “lack of trust” when asked why they found it hard to make friends as adults.

This won’t be news to many of us. When we have demanding work schedules, very involved family lives or a combination of the two, our time for investing in friendships drops. Even when we meet a promising new friend, it can be hard to carve out time to invest in it. This is a bigger problem for older adults, given most people find their obligations increase with age.

Read more:
It’s hard to admit we’re lonely, even to ourselves. Here are the signs and how to manage them

How long does it actually take to make friends? It shouldn’t surprise us that closer friendships take longer to build than casual acquaintances. US researchers have tried to quantify this, estimating it takes roughly 50 hours of shared contact to move from acquaintances to casual friends. To be a close friend? More than 200 hours.

What’s more, the hours you spend together need to be quality. While you may well put in the time with work colleagues, professional interactions don’t count for much. To develop a new friendship, you need personal connection. It doesn’t have to be an intimate conversation to strengthen a friendship. Casual check-ins and joking around can be just as important.

There are many other barriers stopping us from having the friendships we want. This can include having an introverted personality, health barriers, personal insecurities, or maintaining a formal facade and not allowing potential friends in.

Older people are more likely to cite illness and disability as a barrier to socialising, while younger adults are more likely to be stopped by introversion and fears of rejection.

How can we get better at making friends as adults?

It’s entirely possible to overcome these barriers as adults and build meaningful, long-lasting friendships. We don’t have to accept loneliness as inevitable. And while you might think everyone else is having a great social life, remember loneliness is widespread.

So how do you do it?

Build friendships for ten minutes a day

You don’t have to be climbing mountains or bonding intensely over a shared hobby to solidify a new friendship. If you put in ten minutes a day, you can maintain existing friendships and build new ones. Send a text, forward a meme, add to the group chat or give someone a quick call. Don’t get caught up on how much effort, energy and time goes into building friendships. Ten minutes a day may be all you need.

Make the most of any quality time

When you do get to properly spend time with a friend or acquaintance, make the most of it. Avoid distractions if possible, keep Instagram for the couch at home, and be present with your new friend.

Lean into your vulnerability

We’re often scared by the idea of being vulnerable. I think we should embrace it. Remember you are in control of how much you trust and how much you open up. If you struggle with trust, consider sharing personal information slowly, rather than all at once.

Yes, there is a risk in being vulnerable – but there is also the potential to connect on a meaningful level with another person who may very well become a good friend. And that is a fine reward.

Anastasia Hronis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why do we find making new friends so hard as adults? – https://theconversation.com/why-do-we-find-making-new-friends-so-hard-as-adults-171740

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sascha-Dominik (Dov) Bachmann, Professor in Law and Co-Convener National Security Hub (University of Canberra), University of Canberra

A geopolitical earthquake could begin within weeks. As a string of bilateral crisis talks predictably falter, further military aggression by Russia against Ukraine seems all too probable.

If this comes to pass, the shock waves will likely be fast, wide and highly disruptive, potentially activating “tripwires” in the global security environment far beyond the edge of Europe.

Aotearoa New Zealand’s geographical distance will be no defence against the rolling consequences of a protracted crisis involving great powers and their allies. Yet there has been relatively little discussion in New Zealand about these threats.

This leaves the country at risk of being blindsided by events in an increasingly polarised world. New Zealand’s enviably peaceful and prosperous way of life depends on secure maritime trade routes, reasonable market conditions and a stable global security order.

The Ukraine situation carries the real risk of snowballing into a crisis on many fronts, shaking that stability in the process.

While speculation is always risky, there are real indications that trouble is coming. So it is worth mapping a range of scenarios that could emerge if Ukraine becomes a test of wills involving multiple major powers – and what this could mean for Aotearoa.

A chain reaction

Moscow surely knew its ultimatums to NATO were only ever going to be rejected; there is little room left for successful negotiation. If Russia opts to invade, it will happen sooner rather than later, eliciting an instant punitive response from the West.

Russia has already warned of “grave consequences” if Washington makes good on its threats of unprecedented, far-reaching sanctions that could even include expelling Russia from the SWIFT banking system.

Read more:
Russia-Ukraine tensions: power posturing or trouble on the home front for Putin?

In reply, the Kremlin would almost certainly further weaponise energy supplies to European nations, including de facto EU leader Germany.

A war in Ukraine and the need to counter Russia’s aggression would, without doubt, affect the global COVID-19 economic recovery. For example, Europe derives around 40% of its natural gas from Russia. Disruptions in energy flows would magnify destabilisation far beyond the borders of Europe.

In turn, this would shake financial markets and supply chains, raising the prospect of increased inflationary pressure in an already COVID-battered world economy. The closure of the SWIFT banking system for any transactions with Russia, as well as trade sanctions, will only add to this economic disruption.

A widening crisis

As a nation that derives much of its prosperity from exports and relies on the stable functioning of the global trade system, Aotearoa New Zealand would clearly be affected by this. But if the standoff between Russia and the US persists, matters could get much worse.

To punish Biden, Moscow – and/or Beijing as Russia’s current security partner – may well use its sway over Tehran to dampen the prospects of a nuclear deal with Iran. The Biden administration has hoped to secure such a deal, but Russia has arguably never even wanted it, despite pretensions otherwise.

Read more:
Explainer: what is ‘hybrid warfare’ and what is meant by the ‘grey zone’?

This could precipitate a wider international security crisis across multiple domains, altering the strategic calculations of key Middle Eastern states.

The US would then face a fresh set of dilemmas, weakening its hand as it tries to manage the tensions between allies that such a situation would create. And a protracted stress test for the US-led security alliance would present a tempting opportunity for China to exploit.

If US allies vacillate over Ukraine, China may use the moment to escalate non-military aggression against Taiwan, or increase its provocative posturing in the South China Sea. This would increase the challenges for the global rule-based order.

Impact on the Indo-Pacific region

New Zealanders are resilient and may be able to weather the ripple effects of one or more of the above. But if crisis spreads to the Indo-Pacific, another layer of pressure will be added.

A drawn out naval exchange in either location would potentially disrupt shipping and the flow of much of the world’s manufactured goods, delivering yet another blow to societies vulnerable to market turbulence.

And a direct invasion of Taiwan – unlikely but not unthinkable in the near term – would alter the strategic architecture of the region permanently.

Read more:
Russia and the West are at a stalemate over Ukraine. Is Putin’s endgame now war?

While this risk may seem remote, it is not a paranoid projection: Kremlin think tanks, such as Russtrat, have boasted of Sino-Russian capacity for overwhelming Washington and its allies through multiple-front confrontation.

And there is evidence already of concerted cyber and information operations from Moscow and Beijing against Western targets, ranging from cyber attacks to information warfare aimed at undermining democratic societies’ trust in their institutions and leaders.

Forewarned is forearmed

Of course, none of this may happen. The purpose of this article is to call for greater awareness and debate concerning these geopolitical challenges to a liberal democracy and its way of life.

Aotearoa New Zealand occupies a strategically important space in the Indo-Pacific region, set to be the key theatre of 21st century great power competition. The threat of an increasingly militarised South Pacific looms, as do the economic and security risks of a falling out with China, as New Zealand’s foreign minister has warned.

Collective resilience is only possible when citizens are reasonably aware of a threat well in advance of it reaching a critical state. By contrast, a limited public conversation about future risk is a virtual invitation for trouble.

A forewarned, empowered citizenry will be better placed to face the future, and more likely to deal with its challenges rationally. So, whether or not the situation in Ukraine is resolved, we should turn up the volume on this conversation.

The author acknowledges the assistance of Emanuel Stoakes, affiliate researcher with the National Security Hub at the University of Canberra, in the preparation and writing of this article.

Sascha-Dominik (Dov) Bachmann has received and is receiving funding from the Australian Department of Defence for research regarding grey zone and information operations targeting Australia. He is a Research Fellow with the Security Institute for Governance and Leadership in Africa, Faculty of Military Science, Stellenbosch University.

– ref. Ukraine might be far away, but a security crisis in Europe can still threaten Aotearoa New Zealand – https://theconversation.com/ukraine-might-be-far-away-but-a-security-crisis-in-europe-can-still-threaten-aotearoa-new-zealand-175310