For example;

In Syria, opposition-baked forces have taken Aleppo city and other strategic centres in an attempt to remove Syria’s authoritarian leader Assad. Assad’s forces are resisting on the ground while Russian air forces attacked the opposition force’s positions. Israel announced it may strike Syria government munitions sites in a move to ensure opposition forces do not take possession of such weaponry.

Meanwhile, fighting has intensified on the Ukraine-Russia frontlines after:

• North Korea deployed a 10,000-strong assistance force to the Kursk region;
• Outgoing US President Joe Biden authorised Ukraine to fire ATTACM missiles deep into Russia;
• Ukraine indeed fired ATTACMs into the Russian motherland and has increased its drone attacks on military targets in cities once regarded as safe from attack.
• Also, and significantly, Russia fired into Dnipro City in Ukraine a hypersonic “experimental” Medium-Range-Ballistic-Missile – and followed up with the biggest barrage of drone and missile strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure since the conflict began.

So-called “red-lines” have been crossed and all sides appear determined to take as much territory as possible before US President-Elect Donald Trump is sworn into office in January.

Paul and Selwyn assess what we can expect to witness in the next two months, how other state actors are being drawn into conflict, and what objectives are driving warring sides at flashpoints around the world.

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RECOGNITION: The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication. Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category.

You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

An important (and widely commented on) book published last year is End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration, by Perer Turchin. Before reading this book I read his 2007 book War and Peace and War (see my 30 Jan 2024 article Asabiyya), Ages of Discord (2016, an application of Turchin and colleagues’ cliodynamic model to the history of the United States), and the Kindle summary of Secular Cycles (2009).

Despite the millenarian undertones suggested by the book’s primary title, this is a product of the application of statistical analysis to macrohistory; the content is mainly about United States’ history, but the model may be applied to other nation states.

The model of sweeping history was originally developed to explain big change in ‘agrarian civilisations’ of the historical world; the ‘rise-and-fall of civilisation’ kind of history that was more in vogue in the nineteenth than in the twentieth century. It is an application of the deductive scientific method (think of Karl Popper’s Logic of Scientific Discovery; 1959 in English, 1934 in German), which uses a sparse theoretical ‘model’ and tests the predictions of that model using whatever relevant data his team are able to find. For historical work, Turchin has had to make substantial use of proxy data, because rarely is the required data for a historical period actually collected in that period. Turchin’s project is a heroic endeavour, but nevertheless very effective.

The essence of the structural-dynamic model is the alternation of integrative and disintegrative long-phases of nation’s histories. And, from his earlier work, there’s a strong sense that civilisations go through three of four of these alternations before civilisational collapse finally takes place.

If we apply the model to various liberal western countries, we see similar patterns, though the historical turning-points – the short-periods in which one long-phase gives way to another – are rarely identical. Nevertheless, we can apply the model to western civilisation in general, though with slightly different transitions from one phase to another.

The central drivers of the model are demographic and economic; changing levels of inequality, and a kind of Malthusian population struggle between elites, aspirant elites, and counter-elites. The central dynamic of his model is what he calls the ‘wealth pump’; though it’s a dynamic which uses ‘wealth’ in its financial sense rather than its economic sense. (Economists would call economic growth a ‘wealth pump’, and see growth as an equalising rather than an unequalising process; for Turchin, the wealth pump represents a transfer of financial wealth from the poor to the rich.)

Key phrases in Turchin’s model are ‘popular immiseration’, ‘elite overproduction’, ‘ruling class’, and ‘counter-elites’. It’s essentially a model of class war, but not a Marxist model.

225 years of United States’ structural-dynamics

We may start with the United States after its late-eighteenth-century revolution; this start should be familiar to everyone who attended and absorbed the story of Hamilton (the Musical), which had a successful theatrical season in New Zealand in 2023.

We may date the United States’s first integrative phase from the 1790s. The first part of the phase – from the 1790s to the 1820s was characterised by low levels of class inequality, and hence a period of political consensus in which elite incomes were not excessive relative to the incomes of free workers. (While Turchin doesn’t shy away from the issue of slavery, this is understood as a ‘given’ and hence not a source of division between the elites and the free populace of an America dominated by the South.)

Things change in the late 1820s, when class-based divisions start to appear, and new elites begin to assert themselves. This is the second part of the integrative phase, the formation of elites during a period nevertheless of general economic growth. The disintegrative phase begins with the Civil War in the early 1860s, and continues through the Gilded Age into the early 20th century.

Population growth is the principal driver of phase-change. The ‘Malthusian’ argument is that elite-opportunities grow arithmetically whereas elite-aspirants grow geometrically (a less emotive word than ‘exponentially’).

The disintegrative phase begins with ‘popular immiseration’ (essentially inequality arising from the spoils of economic growth being almost entirely captured by the elites rather than by the various working classes); and when frustrated elite-aspirants form counter-elites; the context being that almost all successful revolutions in history have been instigated by counter-elites rather than by an immiserated populace.

The shift to a new integrative phase may be very violent, or may take a more enlightened form. Turchin argues that the transition happened in the United States in the first three decades of the twentieth century; starting with the middle-class ‘progressive movement’ (which, incidentally, drew inspiration from changes happening in New Zealand in the 1890s and 1900s) which peaked under the first President Roosevelt, and ending with the Great Depression and the ‘New Deal’ instigated by a second President Roosevelt. While there was much political violence in those three decades, the revolution that took place was nevertheless as peaceful as a class revolution can be.

The first and most important (relatively egalitarian) stage of the next integrative phase can be summarised as 1930s’ New Deal to 1960s’ Great Society; with the rumblings of next phase change beginning in the late 1970s, and coming to fruition in the 1980s under the presidency of Ronald Reagan (ie Reaganomics).

The period from the 1980s to the 2000s are the period of growth characterised by elite-expansion and growing elite-rivalry. In that sense, the Global Financial Crisis comes at the same stage of the secular cycle as the 1860s’ Civil War. And the 2010s’ formed an increasingly tense period in which the new counter-elites emerged; in the United States these counter-elites may be regarded as the ‘intellectual-backers’ of ‘Trump’s mob’, of Donald Trump’s MAGA transition of the Republican Party into a nationalist party pitching to the populace. Here the populace are the precarious labour class, the precarious small business class, and – increasingly – the underclass which is overrepresented by the African-American descendants of the former slave population. So, Turchin’s model points to the United States at present as being at the cusp of a revolution that could turn violent.

While Turchin emphasises the particular control of the ‘ruling-class elite’, the ‘one-percenters’, he also notes the significance of the new elites, the ‘ten-percenters’. Indeed, we may see that the present politicisation in the west as the ‘liberal’ ten-percenters clashing against a coalition of the ‘very rich’ and the new immiserated poor.

In New Zealand, we can see clear parallels with these historical dynamics. We note that the last ten years in New Zealand saw a substantial expansion of elites, especially what might be called ‘progressive elites’. Since the 2023 election, however, there has been a precipitous decline in elite income-earning positions; the result is an increasing number of thwarted elites, noting that successful violent revolutions in history have been masterminded by counter-elites.

Some nuance

Peter Turchin’s structural model is powerful in its simplicity. Other factors, largely omitted from Turchin’s discussion, may actually strengthen his conclusion; a suggestion that the whole of western civilisation may be approaching an explicable, and likely violent, turning point.

The ‘wealth pump’ has created huge amounts of poverty amidst an unsustainable plenty. And that sheer unsustainability of the elite wealth machine has informed one component of the new and young counter-elite; the Green movement, which is forming youthful alliances around geopolitical human rights, as epitomised by the persecution of Palestine and a growing awareness of its history.

So, the first of the three extra points to emphasise is the clash of elites and new counter-elites as a generational conflict. This applies as a more general feature of youth-immiseration; most deeply felt by the frustrated adult children of the expanded elites of the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s. Much of their frustration is not just Green idealism and international social justice; it’s about the practical realities of finding houses to live in, and, for at least the heterosexual young, to at least contemplate the possibility of family formation.

Turchin’s model is based on normal demographic growth. Today’s situation is supercharged by today’s exceptional demographics, which include very low first-world fertility, aging bulge generations; and economic pressures towards international economic migration, comparable with the pressures many of our ancestors faced in their homelands, but with the cruellest of nationalist barriers in place to suppress such migration and despite labour shortages in the recipient countries.

As part of his model which emphasises population growth and wages, Turchin notes immigration policy as a factor that reinforces the domestic wealth-pump. The elites favour immigration, he argues, to keep wages low.

My second extra point is to extend the definition of ‘elite’. Turchin uses an essentially financial definition; that being elite is a defined principally by income and wealth, noting that wealth gives a person or a clique power over others (as in the ruling one percenters) or at least (for the ten-percenters) enough power to resist having one’s life choices determined by others.

I would additionally define elites as subscribers to the dominant social narratives, and to a lesser extent subscription to prominent counter-narratives. Thus, to be an elite you have to conform to one or other social narrative; indeed, that’s how elite careers are structured. It means that to have a nice house and to have a family life with a sense of economic security, you may have to give up a degree of intellectual autonomy.

My third extra point is the role of interest rates in supercharging Turchin’s wealth pump. (Refer to my Is Inflation Really Too High? Scoop 23 July 2024, and The Truth in New Zealand about Price Inflation and Interest Rates, Evening Report 22 July 2024.)

In Turchin’s model, the driving force is population growth, creating excess labour supply, meaning that real hourly wages set in competitive markets fall, or they don’t rise as the economy grows. While the same applies at the elite level, people who want to get ahead in this kind of labour market look to transition from the ranks to the elites. So long as this transitioning – ‘getting ahead’ – is the vital dynamic, then the nation remains in its integrative phase.

The wealth pump, at least in the recent phases of the cycle, has predicated on positive real interest rates. These are the above-inflation interest rates which enable compound interest to do its ‘magic’; a financial alchemy which is in reality a transfer from productive poor people (workers, small businesses) to rich people many of whom must be classed as unproductive by any sensible definition of that word. Thus, the wealth pump may be supercharged by high interest rate policies. (Balanced budget low tax fiscal policies serve a similar purpose, leaving the private elites with ever more surplus wealth.)

This chart (from the Evening Report article) shows this ‘wealth pump’ norm as it was in New Zealand during the years 2000 to 2008. We can understand recent high interest rates as an attempt by the financial elites to reestablish the interest rate boost to the wealth transfer mechanism identified by Turchin.

(We may note that, when the wealth pump is turbo-charged by high interest rates, the structural-cycles pass more quickly. Turchin cites another example of an accelerated cycle; polygamous ruling classes, such as in late-medieval Egypt, which bred elite-aspirants at a much too great a pace to find elite positions for them.)

The main impact of sustained positive real rates of interest is popular immiseration; keeping the poor poor, and expanding the ranks of the poor as increasing numbers of businesses fail.

Ukraine

Peter Turchin is an American of Russian heritage. Included in his argument is an evaluation of ‘plutocracies’ as a somewhat exceptional form of nation state. In this sense, he is acquiescing in the notion that the United States is an exceptional state; a plutocracy – ruled by the rich (especially the super-rich) for the rich – rather than an administrative or military bureaucracy.

Turchin identifies Russia in the 1990s as an unstable plutocracy, which reverted in the 2000s to a militarised bureaucracy. He shows that Belarus, Russia’s ally, was never a plutocracy. And he argues that Ukraine continued to be a Russian-style plutocracy, because it never had its Putin moment. (We in New Zealand may remember that Russia’s Putin-moment happened in 1999; indeed Vladimir Putin left the Auckland APEC convention early, as the Boris Yeltsin regime was falling as Yeltsin himself faced his own mortality.)

In an insightful few pages, Peter Turchin argues that Ukraine continues to be one of the few genuine plutocracies in the world, and that Ukrainian domestic history this century has essentially been one of clashing oligarchs, with a particular demarcation between that country’s eastern and western divisions. It is this plutocratic alliance that particularly attracts United States’ interest, he argues; and one could argue that the Biden family’s former involvements in Ukraine reflect that political love affair. (Hunter Biden does remind me of a character from HBO’s award-winning drama, Succession.)

Conclusion

The West may or may not be poised on the cusp of a violent revolution, driven by counter-elites; but I’m sure it’s on the cusp of some turning point. Too much that is happening in the United States is also happening in the other countries of the western ‘first-world’ alliance. Turchin expects that the world will pass through a revolutionary turning-point by 2040; either renewal or collapse.

*******

Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.

In this the twelfth episode of A View from Afar for 2023 political scientist Dr Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning note and discuss some of the big world events that have occurred and are occurring in 2023.

And in particular, Paul and Selwyn discuss the rise of the Global South; evaluate the the wars that continue to rage in Ukraine and Gaza; and tensions in the South China Sea.

Plus they note, with particular reference the trends that will become prominent in 2024, including the decline of Western democracies and a rightward turn in many places (including in Argentina and New Zealand in their respective 2023 elections).

INTERACTION WHILE LIVE:

Paul and Selwyn encourage their live audience to interact while they are live with questions and comments.

To interact during the live recording of this podcast, go to Youtube.com/c/EveningReport/

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RECOGNITION: The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication. Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category.

You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

New Zealand’s international relations are under new management. And Winston Peters, the new foreign minister, is already setting a change agenda.

As expected, this includes a more pro-US positioning when it comes to the Pacific – where Peters will be picking up where he left off. Peters sought to align New Zealand more closely with the United States under his ‘Pacific Reset’ policy that he launched while serving as foreign minister under Jacinda Ardern’s Labour-New Zealand First coalition government from 2017-2020.

Peters is wasting no time in getting back on the foreign affairs horse.

Just three days after being sworn in as a minster, he gave his first speech on foreign policy at the US Business Summit in Auckland last week.

Peters was lavish in his praise for the US in his address, arguing that Washington had been ‘instrumental in the Pacific’s success’. But he noted that ‘there is more to do and not a moment to lose. We will not achieve our shared ambitions if we allow time to drift.’ Adding that ‘speed and intensity’ would be needed, Peters said ‘the good news is that New Zealand stands ready to play its part.’

The early timing of the speech itself is a sign that New Zealand’s new, yet very familiar foreign affairs minister is unlikely to wait around when it comes to taking major decisions.

It was an important, agenda-setting address.

There were strong hints that New Zealand’s new Government wants to move swiftly when it comes to Wellington’s potential involvement in in ‘Pillar II’ of the AUKUS defence pact that currently involves Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Peters’ disclosed in the Q&A to the speech that he had already talked to Judith Collins, the new defence minister, about New Zealand’s AUKUS stance.

The previous Labour government’s position was that AUKUS remained a hypothetical question while no formal offer existed for New Zealand to join ‘Pillar II’ of the high-level defence pact that currently involves Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States.

But while playing for time in an election year, the then Prime Minister Chris Hipkins signalled in July that New Zealand was at least ‘open to conversations’ about joining the pact in some form. And Labour’s expedited release of three major defence strategy documents in August, just prior to the election campaign, laid the groundwork for at least formal consideration of involvement in AUKUS.

The reports also paved the way for New Zealand to spend vastly more on its military and to take a more security-focused approach to the Pacific – recommendations that Peters will probably be keen to implement.

Wellington and Washington have been becoming closer since at least November 2010, when US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited New Zealand’s capital to sign the ‘Wellington Declaration’. The relatively short agreement served to clear the air after decades of chequered bilateral relations stemming from the Fourth Labour Government’s introduction of a nuclear-free policy in the 1980s.

Going nuclear-free (which prevented visits from US warships) saw New Zealand cast out as a US ally. Washington formally suspended its obligations to Wellington under the ANZUS defence treaty in 1986. But nearly 40 years on, US-NZ relations are rapidly deepening, a trend that has been accelerated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Western concerns over China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific.

Since February 2022, New Zealand has imposed sanctions on Russia, joined US-led groupings such as Partners in the Blue Pacific (PBP) and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) and sent its Prime Ministers to successive NATO summits. And in May 2022, Jacinda Ardern visited Joe Biden at the White House, where a 3000-word joint statement called for ‘new resolve and closer cooperation’.

Meanwhile, a string of senior US officials have visited New Zealand just this year, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Kritenbrink and the White House’s Indo-Pacific coordinator, Kurt Campbell (who Joe Biden recently nominated to become his new Deputy Secretary of State).

If New Zealand does join AUKUS, it could spell the effective end of the country’s ‘independent foreign policy’. The ANZUS break-up of the late 1980s, the end of the Cold War and the acceleration of globalisation had allowed New Zealand to free itself from blocs. Wellington talked to anyone and everyone, building solid, trade-focused relations with China and others in the Global South – while not neglecting Western partners, including the United States.

Peters may think the current geopolitical environment justifies a new approach.

If he does, he should prepare for significant pushback. Helen Clark, who was Prime Minister during Winston Peters’ first term as foreign minister from 2005-8, posted on Friday that New Zealand was now ‘veering towards signing up’ to AUKUS despite bipartisan support over decades for the independent foreign policy stance.

This added to criticism from Clark earlier in the year, including in August, when she argued the new defence blueprint showed New Zealand was ‘abandoning its capacity to think for itself & instead is cutting & pasting from 5 Eyes’ partners’.

It should also be remembered that Winston Peters, while undoubtedly powerful and highly experienced, is only one Government minister. The views of Judith Collins – the defence minister – remain unknown in any detail, while the foreign policy positions of Christopher Luxon seem more centrist than radical.

Moreover, with the US now firmly focused on the war between Hamas and Israel – and its own presidential election year fast approaching – it is far from guaranteed that the hypothetical AUKUS question will turn into a concrete one for New Zealand anytime soon.

Moreover, Peters’ initial ministerial comments on New Zealand’s own position towards the Middle East suggest there is plenty of room for nuance. Calling the death toll in Gaza ‘horrific’, Peters welcomed a short-lived extension to the ceasefire on Friday, but called for all parties to ‘work urgently towards a long-term ceasefire’.

And in a radio interview earlier last week, Peters said ‘the ceasefire is not good enough, we’re going to have find a way forward through this and a peaceful solution – that’s what New Zealand and the Western world has got to put its focus on’.  Peters added ‘internationally we need to be talking to people across the political divide who are making sense on this matter’.

Talking to all sides and playing a small role in facilitating a sustainable political solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would very much be in keeping with New Zealand’s independent foreign policy approach – and Winston Peters is already speaking out strongly about the war.

With Christopher Luxon passing up on the opportunity to attend COP28 in Dubai at the weekend, Winston Peters will have the chance to make the Government’s first ministerial trip to the Middle East to begin this dialogue. The Gulf states would be a natural starting point for these discussions.

Meanwhile, on Ukraine – the war that helped to speed up New Zealand’s alignment with the US in 2022 – Peters was open to the idea of New Zealand upgrading its military support to Ukraine by sending Kyiv light armoured vehicles (LAVs). While noting that the decision was not up to him alone, he added ‘if we can help we should be doing the best we can’.

Labour had denied a request from Ukraine to provide the LAVs in 2022 and of late had preferred to make financial contributions to Kyiv’s war effort – the most recent being a $NZ4.7 million package announced by Chris Hipkins in July at the NATO leaders’ summit in Lithuania.

It all adds up to a complex picture.

Winston Peters has no shortage of global issues to address.

And there could be some major changes ahead for New Zealand foreign policy.

*******

Geoffrey Miller is the Democracy Project’s geopolitical analyst and writes on current New Zealand foreign policy and related geopolitical issues. He has lived in Germany and the Middle East and is a learner of Arabic and Russian. He is currently working on a PhD at the University of Otago on New Zealand’s relations with the Gulf states.

In this the eighth episode of A View from Afar for 2023, political scientist Dr Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning examine the risks of a 21st century nuclear war.

The movie Oppenheimer has renewed interest in the dawn of the nuclear era. Almost 80 years later, are we safer from nuclear war than we were in the years immediately after 1945?

The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists moved its Doomsday Clock hand to 90 seconds before midnight, the highest threat level since the Cuban Missile Crisis.What does that say about contemporary international security affairs?

No new nuclear arms limitation agreements have been signed in over a decade, several have lapsed and most nuclear armed countries are not signatories to them anyway.

Countries like China are rapidly expanding their arsenals and others like North Korea and Iran are seeking to join the nuclear armed club.

Has nuclear arms control failed?

What is the future of the Non-Proliferation Treaty?

Although conventions against the use of chemical and biological weapons are widely recognised, violations of the prohibitions have occurred regularly, most recently in Syria. Weapons like white phosphorus and cluster munitions continue to be used by many states.

The Questions include:

• Has non-nuclear arms control failed as well?

• Russia’s Putin Regime has threatened to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine and NATO. Is the nuclear genie about to come out of the bottle, even in a tactical use?

• Are we seeing the return of weapons of mass destruction (WMD)?

• Are we on the brink of Oppenheimer’s nightmare: nuclear Armageddon?

• And importantly, what are the solutions to this most serious and dangerous threat?

INTERACTION:

Paul and Selwyn encourage their live audience to interact while they are live with questions and comments.

To interact during the live recording of this podcast, go to Youtube.com/c/EveningReport/

Remember to subscribe to the channel.

For the on-demand audience, you can also keep the conversation going on this debate by clicking on one of the social media channels below:

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RECOGNITION: The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication. Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category.

You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

In this the sixth episode of A View from Afar for 2023 political scientist Dr Paul G. Buchanan and Selwyn Manning present a two-part episode to analyse what to make of New Zealand Prime Minister, Chris Hipkins’ bilateral meetings with People’s Republic of China’s President Xi JinPing and other leaders of the PRC.

In part one, Paul and Selwyn also consider how the PRC-NZ trade relationship is seen in the eyes of New Zealand’s security partners.

Then, in the second half of today’s podcast, Paul and Selwyn analyse the most recent events in Russia – events that have taken shape since Wagner Commander Yevgeny Prigozhin’s pronounced intent to mobilise his mercenaries against the Russian Federation’s top two military heads, and, while doing so, pronounced that the Kremlin’s decision to invade Ukraine was based on falsehoods.

What should we expect next? What is the real state of Putinism? What do the political and power elites in Russia make of President Vladimir Putin’s handling of the matter?

Weeks prior to this event happening inside Russia, Paul and Selwyn analysed the question: How stable is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hold on power? It’s a question that all those who watch Russian affairs have now been confronted with.

In this episode Paul and Selwyn unpack the complexity, look at what has changed as opposed to what has been said.

INTERACTION WHILE LIVE:

Paul and Selwyn encourage their live audience to interact while they are live with questions and comments.

To interact during the live recordings of this podcast, go to Youtube.com/c/EveningReport/

Remember to subscribe to the channel.

For the on-demand audience, you can also keep the conversation going on this debate by clicking on one of the social media channels below:

• Youtube.com/c/EveningReport/
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RECOGNITION: The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication. Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category.

You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

PODCAST: In this the second episode of A View from Afar podcast for 2023, political scientist Dr Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning analyse the question:

• How stable is Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin’s regime?

PAUL AND SELWYN look at this question from a number of angles, and, reveal shifts within the regime’s control and structure that may surprise many in the West.

In this episode Paul deep dives into the dynamics between the mercenary Wagner Group’s commander Yevgeny Prigozhin, his relationship with Putin, the Kremlin, and the estrangement from Russia’s military generals and Putin appointees.

Paul and Selwyn consider: What is going on here? What is Prigozhin’s end-game? Does he have the support of Putin? Or is that support conditional on successes on the Ukraine conflict frontline?

And Selwyn digs into the pillars of power in the Russian Federation, in particular:

• Putin as the head of Russia’s personalised autocracy
• The Putin-era Oligarchs
• Russia’s State military
• And the rise of Private armies and militia.

Then Paul take us, contextually and comparatively, through all of this complexity so we can more accurately assess the big question: How stable is Putin’s regime?

INTERACTION WHILE LIVE: Paul and Selwyn encourage their live audience to interact while they are live with questions and comments.

They recommended the audience does so via EveningReport’s YouTube channel, as Facebook has undergone significant changes. Here’s the link: Youtube (remember to subscribe to the channel).

For the on-demand audience, you can also keep the conversation going on this debate by clicking on one of the social media channels below:

• Facebook.com/selwyn.manning
• Youtube
• Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning

If you miss the LIVE Episode, you can see it as video-on-demand, and earlier episodes too, by checking out EveningReport.nz or, subscribe to the Evening Report podcast here, also YouTube podcasts and the Podcast hosts below.

RECOGNITION:

The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top  Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication.

Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category. You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

INTERACTIVE WEBCAST: Join the LIVE recording of Paul G. Buchanan and Selwyn Manning’s podcast A View from Afar at midday Thursday (New Zealand time) and Wednesday 8pm (US EDT).

In this the second episode of A View from Afar podcast for 2023, political scientist Dr Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning will analyse the question:

• How stable is Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin’s regime?

We will look at this question from a number of angles, and, we will reveal shifts within the regime’s control and structure that may surprise many in the West.

In this episode Paul will deep dive into the dynamics between the mercenary Wagner Group’s commander Yevgeny Prigozhin, his relationship with Putin, the Kremlin, and the estrangement from Russia’s military generals and Putin appointees.

We will consider: What is going on here? What is Prigozhin’s end-game? Does he have the support of Putin? Or is that support conditional on successes on the Ukraine conflict frontline?

And Selwyn will dig into the pillars of power in the Russian Federation, in particular:

• Putin as the head of Russia’s personalised autocracy
• The Putin-era Oligarchs
• Russia’s State military
• And the rise of Private armies and militia.

Then Paul will take us, contextually and comparatively, through all of this complexity so we can more accurately assess the big question: How stable is Putin’s regime?

INTERACTION WHILE LIVE: Paul and Selwyn invite and encourage you to interact while they are live with questions and comments.

They recommend you do so via EveningReport’s YouTube channel, as Facebook is undergoing significant changes. Here’s the link: Youtube (remember to subscribe to the channel).

You can also keep the conversation going on this debate by clicking on one of the social media channels below:

• Facebook.com/selwyn.manning
• Youtube
• Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning

If you miss the LIVE Episode, you can see it as video-on-demand, and earlier episodes too, by checking out EveningReport.nz or, subscribe to the Evening Report podcast here.

RECOGNITION:

The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top  Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication.

Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category. You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

PODCAST – In this, the 25th episode of A View from Afar for 2022 political scientist Dr Paul Buchanan and host Selwyn Manning examine how hostage taking, prisoner exchanges, and establishing diplomatic back-channels work and how they are used by states during times of conflict.

Specifically, Paul and Selwyn examine:

• How hostage diplomacy appears to increase where authoritarians rise and are emboldened to challenge international norms
• How states use prisoner exchanges to establish two-way common-ground
• How back-channels can also be established through prisoner exchanges.
• Is this what we are seeing in the Russian-Ukraine conflict?
• What dangers arise when warring opponents reach a deadly stalemate in the battlefield?

INTERACTION WHILE LIVE: Paul and Selwyn invite and encourage you to interact while they are live with questions and comments. They recommend you do so via EveningReport’s YouTube channel, as Facebook is undergoing significant changes. Here’s the link: Youtube (remember to subscribe to the channel).

You can also keep the conversation going on this debate by clicking on one of the social media channels below:

• Facebook.com/selwyn.manning
• Youtube
• Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning

If you miss the LIVE Episode, you can see it as video-on-demand, and earlier episodes too, by checking out EveningReport.nz or, subscribe to the Evening Report podcast here.

RECOGNITION:

The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top  Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication.

Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category. You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

LIVE@MIDDAY NZ Time – 6pm USEST – In this, the 25th episode of A View from Afar for 2022 political scientist Dr Paul Buchanan and host Selwyn Manning will examine how hostage taking, prisoner exchanges, and establishing diplomatic back-channels work and how they are used by states during times of conflict.

Specifically, Paul and Selwyn will examine:

• How hostage diplomacy appears to increase where authoritarians rise and are emboldened to challenge international norms
• How states use prisoner exchanges to establish two-way common-ground
• How back-channels can also be established through prisoner exchanges.
• Is this what we are seeing in the Russian-Ukraine conflict?
• What dangers arise when warring opponents reach a deadly stalemate in the battlefield?

INTERACTION WHILE LIVE: Paul and Selwyn invite and encourage you to interact while they are live with questions and comments. They recommend you do so via EveningReport’s YouTube channel, as Facebook is undergoing significant changes. Here’s the link: Youtube (remember to subscribe to the channel).

You can also keep the conversation going on this debate by clicking on one of the social media channels below:

• Facebook.com/selwyn.manning
• Youtube
• Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning

If you miss the LIVE Episode, you can see it as video-on-demand, and earlier episodes too, by checking out EveningReport.nz or, subscribe to the Evening Report podcast here.

RECOGNITION:

The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top  Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication.

Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category. You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

Political Roundup: What to expect from Volodymyr Zelensky’s address to the New Zealand Parliament

By Geoffrey Miller
As New Zealand’s foreign policy year draws to a close, it seems fitting that Volodymyr Zelensky will have the final word.

Ukraine’s President is scheduled to address the New Zealand Parliament in Wellington by video link early on Wednesday morning, local time.

New Zealand is something of a latecomer when it comes to inviting Zelensky to speak to its legislature in 2022.

Zelensky did the rounds of most Western countries during the first half of the year, especially in March and April.

Parliaments in the United Kingdom, United States and EU countries were first in line, but Australia took its turn on 31 March, when Scott Morrison was still the country’s Prime Minister.

If outspoken National MP Simon O’Connor had had his way, New Zealand would have followed suit around the same time.

O’Connor lodged a motion in April calling for the New Zealand Parliament to extend an invitation to the Ukrainian President to speak to it.

However, in response, Chris Hipkins – the Labour Government’s Leader of the House – poured cold water on the suggestion. Calling Zelensky a ‘busy guy’, Hipkins said O’Connor’s proposal risked being ‘undiplomatic’ because Zelensky might have to turn it down. And even O’Connor’s own party leader, Christopher Luxon, seemed unenthusiastic about the idea.

The real reason was probably the Government’s fear that Zelensky would only add further fuel to the fire when it came to calls for New Zealand to do more to help Ukraine.

At the time, Wellington was coming under enormous pressure to provide greater assistance to Kyiv, including weaponry now commonly referred to as ‘lethal aid’.

Zelensky has been refreshingly direct in his speeches to foreign legislatures.

The underlying message is always simple: thank you for all the help you have given Ukraine so far – but please do more.

But far from being boilerplate stump speeches, the Ukrainian President’s calls for more assistance have always shown sophistication in the way they are tailored to foreign audiences.

They are carefully crafted to appeal to the recipient country’s own history and instincts.

When speaking to the US, Zelensky invoked the spirit and solidarity of the American response to 9/11 and the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour in 1941.

For the UK, it was the Battle of Britain of 1940.

For Australia, Zelensky reminded his audience of the 38 Australian citizens and residents who were killed when Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was shot down by Russian-led forces in 2014.

It remains to be seen exactly which buttons Zelensky will press in his speech to New Zealand this week.

The address will no doubt serve as an opportunity to thank New Zealand for the historic shifts it has made to its foreign policy this year because of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

In the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion on February 24, New Zealand overturned its longstanding UN-only sanctions policy by introducing the Russia Sanctions Act.

Moreover, Wellington eventually yielded to domestic and international pressure to provide lethal aid by sending a small, mainly symbolic $NZ7.5 million contribution to the United Kingdom to purchase weapons for Ukraine on New Zealand’s behalf.

But since the landmark lethal aid decision was taken in April, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and her Labour Government have been keen to steer clear of further weaponry-in-kind contributions.

Instead, the focus has been placed on sanctions, money for non-lethal and humanitarian aid and on sending New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) personnel to the United Kingdom to train Ukrainian soldiers there.

To this end, the Government recently extended a NZDF training mission that will see up to 66 New Zealand soldiers deployed to the United Kingdom until July 2023.

This is in addition to a smaller contingent of 29 New Zealand military intelligence analysts, logistics specialists and other personnel who will also be stationed in Europe until the middle of next year.

More broadly, the Government has issued no fewer than 34 press releases in relation to Ukraine this year – more than on any other foreign policy issue, by some margin.

Volodymyr Zelensky will no doubt express Ukraine’s gratitude for this commitment when he speaks to New Zealand parliamentarians on Wednesday.

As winter sets in, Ukraine is largely holding its own or gaining ground on the battlefield. But Kyiv is facing a constant barrage of Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian cities that are often targeting energy infrastructure – causing the lights and heating to go out amidst freezing temperatures.

On Saturday, Zelensky said that Russian attacks on energy facilities in Odesa – Ukraine’s third-largest city – had left 1.5 million people without electricity. The damage could take months to repair.

Against this grim backdrop, Zelensky will almost certainly call on New Zealand to redouble its efforts before its Parliament heads off for its traditional extended summer break.

When it comes to material support, the Government has actually quietly reduced New Zealand’s contribution to the war.

The 66 New Zealand troops now training their Ukrainian counterparts in the UK are deployed as part of a single ‘infantry training team’, a reduction in size from the 120-soldier, two-team deployment that was sent from August to November this year.

Moreover, as the nearly 10-month-old war continues, Ukraine has started to fade from New Zealanders’ view.

In contrast to the early months of the war, Ukraine now rarely features near the top of New Zealand television news bulletins – and many of the blue-and-yellow Ukrainian flags that sprang up around New Zealand cities in the aftermath of the invasion have since been taken down.

Of course, continued inflation and cost-of-living pressures are a constant reminder that New Zealand is not immune to global geopolitical forces.

But a modest fall in oil prices and New Zealand’s relatively high level of energy independence in electricity and gas have spared the country its own version of the particularly acute energy crisis now being felt across Europe.

A recent visit to Auckland by Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin – the first EU leader to visit New Zealand since the pandemic began – sought to push Ukraine further up Wellington’s agenda.

At a joint press conference with Jacinda Ardern, Marin emphasised weaponry and Ukraine’s need for ‘hard power to win that war’.

The European Union’s Ambassador to New Zealand, Nina Obermaier, has also been keen to remind New Zealand’s foreign policy community of the importance of showing solidarity with Europe and backing Ukraine.

In a recent speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs (NZIIA) headlined ‘Partners in Turbulent Times’, Obermaier cited the ‘common values’ such as democracy, human rights and multilateralism that united New Zealand and the EU.

The Ambassador told her audience ‘Europe can count on New Zealand, New Zealand can count on Europe’, adding ‘we stand together’.

This might sound like thanks for a job well done.

But it was also a not-so-subtle hint that further support would be a good idea.

As Volodymyr Zelensky is likely to remind New Zealand parliamentarians this week, the war is far from over.

New Zealand can expect to be asked to do more.
Geoffrey Miller is the Democracy Project’s geopolitical analyst and writes on current New Zealand foreign policy and related geopolitical issues. He has lived in Germany and the Middle East and is a learner of Arabic and Russian.

Further reading on Foreign Affairs and Trade

Fran O’Sullivan (Herald): $50b question – Which way ahead for New Zealand-China trade? (paywalled)
AP: PM Jacinda Ardern says China has become ‘more assertive’
RNZ: Ardern hoping to lead trade mission to China
Dileepa Fonseka (Stuff): The New Zealander helping the United States prepare for an artificial intelligence war with China
Emma Cropper (Newshub): Australia makes major immigration announcement to improve New Zealanders’ rights
Kelvin McDonald (Whakaata Māori): Australia starts work on ‘pathways’ to residency and citizenship for Kiwis
Bridie Witton (Stuff): NZ issues travel ban against Iran security forces, including morality police
Rachel Sadler (Newshub): New Zealand imposes travel bans on 22 Iranian security forces members connected to Mahsa Amini’s death, ‘violent’ response to protests
RNZ: New Zealand announces travel ban on Iranian security forces
Jimmy Ellingham (RNZ): NZ soldiers train Ukrainians in battlefield skills to fight Russian troops
Audrey Young (Herald): What has ex-MP Louisa Wall been up to as equality ambassador in the Pacific (paywalled)

Other items of interest and importance today

HAMILTON WEST BY-ELECTION
Claire Trevett (Herald): If Hamilton West byelection was Labour’s canary, it’s in line for a walloping (paywalled)
Richard Harman (Politik): 16,359 missing voters (paywalled)
Jo Moir (Newsroom): By-election loss only adds to Labour’s much-needed reset
David Farrar: Some facts about the Hamilton West by-election
Matthew Hooton (Patreon): Labour’s Suffers Historic Debacle in Hamilton West (paywalled)
Steven Cowan: Hamilton West by-election: The people stay away
Martyn Bradbury (Daily Blog): Hamilton West by-election massacre for Labour: Winners, Losers & Predictions
Jonah Franke and Stephen Ward (Waikato Times): National records resounding victory in Hamilton West by-election
Adam Pearse (Herald): Hamilton West byelection: National’s Tama Potaka wins, seat flip a blow for Government
1News: National’s Tama Potaka wins Hamilton West seat
Jenna Lynch (Newshub): Government dealt ‘major blow’ as Hamilton West swings hard to National
RNZ: Opposition tout political change for 2023 elections after Hamilton West seat win
Seni Iasona (Newshub): Hamilton West by-election: Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern congratulates National’s Tama Potaka following ‘tough’ campaign
Avina Vidyadharan (Stuff): ‘Don’t do nothing, do something’ – Hamilton West’s newly minted MP starts work
———-
1News: Voter turnout essential for Hamilton West by-election – candidates
Mike Hosking (Newstalk ZB): Hamilton West’s result is likely the election result

PARLIAMENT
Luke Malpass (Stuff): Remember how we lived during the pandemic peak? The last political week of a rubbish three years
David Cohen (Telegraph): Our love affair with Jacinda Ardern is coming to an end
Kate MacNamara (Herald): Public Service Commission’s dim view of MfE process related to Mahuta family contracts (paywalled)
Heather du Plessis-Allan (Herald): Split reveals where power lies (paywalled)
Claire Trevett (Herald): Christopher Luxon, the Winston Peters question and why polling in the 40s does matter (paywalled)
Ian Taylor (Herald): The Labour Party I used to know (paywalled)
Herald Editorial: What could change the political outlook in the year ahead? (paywalled)
RNZ: PM Jacinda Ardern on plans for next year: ‘Making sure the economy is our priority’
Andrew Kirton (Herald): Labour needs a plan to address tough economic times and ease voters’ pain (paywalled)
Michael Neilson (Herald): Green Party on their ‘biggest frustration’ around climate change, farm emissions and the 2023 election
John Roughan (Herald): A week of political corrections (paywalled)
Peter Wilson (RNZ): Week in Politics: National’s joy and Labour’s woes
Thomas Coughlan (Herald): Beehive diaries: The PM’s Christmas party and why Finance Minister Grant Robertson can’t travel
Herald: On the Tiles: Three Waters, political resets and retirements, and how the finances are looking
Steven Joyce (Herald): Government on a one-way ride down memory lane (paywalled)
Muriel Newman: Labour’s Decline
Phil Smith (RNZ): The House: Go high: Parliament takes its roof solar
Kelvin McDonald (Whakaata Māori): Māori tourism leader Dale Stephens to contest Christchurch Central for National

LOCAL GOVERNMENT, TRANSPORT
Andrea Vance (Stuff): How a council’s weird TikTok account represents everything that is wrong with local democracy
Tom Dillane (Stuff): Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown earmarks $415k to Matthew Hooton and key advisors, after pledge to slash council salaries
Todd Niall (Stuff): Auckland mayor Wayne Brown pays four staff $250k a year – as did his predecessor
Todd Niall (Stuff): Auckland mayoral hopefuls: Efeso Collins’ $410k campaign, Viv Beck had cash leftover
Nick Truebridge (Newshub): Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown shuts down questions on budget proposals and possible asset sales
Anne Gibson (Herald): Potential conflict of interest probe: Ngāti Whātua Ōrākei, Eke Panuku both welcome PwC report (paywalled)
Simon Wilson (Herald): Is this the end of tunnelled light rail and the start of moving the port? (paywalled)
Todd Niall (Stuff): New era of joined-up working for Auckland port and transport projects
RNZ: Auckland mayor and Transport Minister agree to cooperate on port and reallocate millions in funds
Oliver Lewis (BusinessDesk): Politicians get city rail link briefing on budget, timing (paywalled)
Luke Kirkness (Bay of Plenty Times): Transport funding package the right decision in the long run (paywalled)
Victor Billot (Newsroom): An Ode for .. Wayne Brown
Georgina Campbell (Herald): Wellington Mayor Tory Whanau’s large campaign spend-up pays off
Erin Gourley (Stuff): Dumped Wellington mayor Andy Foster’s campaign bankrolled by Chow Brothers
John Minto (Daily Blog): Just how despicable are these corporate bankers – and their council minions?
RNZ: Remuneration Authority rejects Dunedin mayor’s salary cut proposal
K Gurunathan (Stuff): Councils should think twice before insulting their Treaty partners
Rachael Kelly (Stuff): Behaviour of Gore Mayor Ben Bell ‘taking a toll on staff’s mental well-being and health’
Steven Walton (Stuff): Phil Mauger’s $1m roving footpath fix-it crew backed by council staff
Alisha Evans (RNZ): RMA reforms: Local voice and environmental conflicts key issues for councils

THREE WATERS
Thomas Cranmer: Pressure mounts on embattled Minister Mahuta
Graham Adams (The Platform): Ardern’s disregard for democracy on full display
Waatea News: Anti-Māori driving three waters opposition
Waatea News: Three waters no a vote for white privilege
Pattrick Smellie (BuisnessDesk): RMA and three waters reforms plough on (paywalled)
Jonathan Milne (Newsroom): New bills allow rural users to take ownership of drinking water supplies
Bryan Cadogan (Southland Times): Three Waters: Understand massive stakes, or make massive mistakes
John MacDonald (Newstalk ZB): Government’s Three Waters reforms still a dog’s breakfast

MEDIA
Chris Trotter: Willie Jackson’s New Network Will Go Fishing For a New Audience
Herald Editorial: RNZ/TVNZ merger bites back (paywalled)
Colin Peacock (RNZ): Media merger meets mounting resistance as clock ticks
Tom Pullar Strecker (Stuff): Willie Jackson: Here’s why Google and Facebook should help fund the media
Mark Quinlivan (Newshub): TVNZ-RNZ: National’s Erica Stanford calls for mega-merger to be first policy scrapped after PM signals backtrack on some reforms
RNZ: Stuff’s regional rejig – and staff strife
Peter Griffin (Herald): Rebuilding Better: A prime opportunity to create the social media we want (paywalled)
James Perry (Whakaata Māori): Indigenous broadcasters beef up push for cultural revitalisation

JOHN ARMSTRONG
Tim Murphy (Newsroom): Vale, John Amstrong
David Farrar: RIP John Armstrong
Herald: New Zealand Herald political journalist John Armstrong dies, aged 68

ECONOMY, COST OF LIVING, POVERTY
Janet Wilson (Stuff): Where’s the outrage about our child poverty rates?
Damien Grant (Stuff): The big mistake we have made in setting the price of our money
Craig Renney (BusinessDesk): Reducing inflation requires investment, not tax cuts (paywalled)
Jenny Ruth (BusinessDesk): Central banks are likely to overshoot in their inflation battles (paywalled)
Rachel Thomas and Gianina Schwanecke (Stuff): How the cost of living crisis is hurting frontline New Zealanders
Rob Stock (Stuff): Supermarkets paying more for almost 8000 grocery items, causing pain at the till
1News: 43% of Kiwis tightening their belts this Christmas – poll
Aimee Shaw (Stuff): New Zealanders struggling to pay for Christmas
Eric Crampton (Stuff): What to do about competition and costs in the building industry?

EMPLOYMENT
Dileepa Fonseka (Stuff): RSE workers being treated ‘like slaves’, Equal Employment Opportunity Commissioner says
Anna Whyte (Stuff): Strike notices much lower than previous years despite ‘perfect storm’ for action
Rob Stock (Stuff): Rise in government workers cashing in annual leave for extra pay

BUSINESS
Brian Easton (Pundit): Should We Nationalise The Electricity Industry?
Tom Powell (Stuff): New Zealand’s broken electricity market
Maria Slade (NBR): Tortured funding tale shakes faith in government startup support (paywalled)
Duncan Greive (Spinoff): The troubling backstory and new legal chaos engulfing We Are Indigo
BusinessDesk: Queenstown ‘non tourism’ fund makes first investment (paywalled)
Rob Stock (Stuff): Woman loses home after insurer turns down brain tumour claim
Catherine Hubbard (Stuff): Local contractors ‘heartbroken’ at being left on the sidelines
Daniel Smith (Stuff): Trade Me ‘no safer than Facebook marketplace’ says scam victim
Jamie Gray (Herald): Tiwai’s charm offensive: Chris Blenkiron on the new, improved Rio Tinto (paywalled)
Tom Pullar-Strecker (Stuff): Aluminium smelter boss sets out why Kiwis should want it to stay
Dan Brunskill (BusinessDesk): Mindful Money calls out fund managers for not upholding exclusions (paywalled)

PRIMARY INDUSTRIES
Rachael Kelly (Stuff): Ardern agrees to meet Groundswell NZ leaders after long stand-off
Ian Llewellyn (BusinessDesk): Dire warnings over carbon forests’ impact
Keith Woodford (Interest): Government foreshadows new ETS sequestration categories but then creates yet another communication muddle
Catherine Hubbard (Stuff): NZ’s first rural telethon aims to raise one million meals

HOUSING
Benn Bathgate (Stuff): Rotorua will phase out motel emergency housing to ‘near zero’ with new accord – Housing Minister
Felix Desmarais (Local Democracy Reporting): Rotorua housing accord will see emergency motels dwindle
Miriam Bell (Stuff): Are we on the brink of a wave of mortgagee sales?
Miriam Bell (Stuff): Radical rethink necessary to rebalance housing demand
Susan Edmunds (Stuff): Why does no one get it right when forecasting house prices?

OTHER
Herald: Rebuilding Better: Poll reveals what Kiwis trust the most
Max Harris (Herald): Rebuilding Better: New Zealand experienced ‘social distancing’ of a different kind well before Covid-19. Here’s how to fix it.(paywalled)
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): Kauri Lounge: Pictures of secret lounge for VIPs emerge, Jacinda Ardern doesn’t want upgrade to be ‘significant project’
Jem Traylen (BusinessDesk): Public service needs to break down siloes (paywalled)
Stewart Sowman-Lund (Spinoff): How an open letter in The Listener set off a still-boiling battle over free speech
Bridie Witton (Stuff): Hate speech legislation ‘cherry picking’ human rights
Sam Sachdeva (Newsroom): Government finally introducing emergency response law
Herald: Māori Development Minister Willie Jackson heads to Paris to kōrero about indigenous language

In this, the 22nd episode of A View from Afar for 2022 political scientist Dr Paul Buchanan and host Selwyn Manning deep dive into the consequences of the United States midterm elections.

In particular Paul and Selwyn examine how an historically strong performance by the Democrats bolsters the reputation and abilities of US President Joe Biden on the world stage and domestically.

Also, they examine what does the GOP’s poor performance in the midterm elections mean for Trumpism, Trump, the Republican Party, and the MAGA faction that has, for quite a time now, stifled conservative voices within the Grand Old Party.

And, of course, Paul and Selwyn examine Donald Trump’s announcement that he will seek to be the GOP’s candidate to take back the presidency in 2024.

You can also keep the conversation going on this debate by clicking on one of the social media channels below:

• Facebook.com/selwyn.manning
• Youtube
• Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning

If you miss the LIVE Episode, you can see it as video-on-demand, and earlier episodes too, by checking out EveningReport.nz or, subscribe to the Evening Report podcast here.

RECOGNITION:

The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top  Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication.

Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category. You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

A View from Afar – In this podcast, political scientist Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning will analyse the advent of new technologies and the rise of hybrid warfare.

In this episode, we will take you on a journey into a world that exists all around us, no matter where we live. But, it’s fair to say, it’s a world few realise exists and few realise how it is effecting them.

With the technologies that surround us, tech that we use every day, it has become easy to conduct indirect or non-attributable warfare using a variety of means.

There’s the grey area phenomena where opponent states undermine adversaries from within, sowing distrust, or fear, where there should not be. The purpose is to weaken public trust and a population’s resolve to support their government.

In an extreme situation, this form of hostilities can escalate into hybrid warfare using indirect and direct means, from cyber offensives to firepower.

To illustrate the issue, we will draw on the build-up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and also evaluate other locations around the world where there is evidence of hybrid warfare.

It may surprise you to realise how close to home are real world examples of hybrid warfare.

Join Paul and Selwyn for this LIVE recording of this podcast while they consider these big issues, and remember any comments you make while live can be included in this programme.

You can comment on this debate by clicking on one of these social media channels and interacting in the social media’s comment area. Here are the links:

• Facebook.com/selwyn.manning
• Youtube
• Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning

If you miss the LIVE Episode, you can see it as video-on-demand, and earlier episodes too, by checking out EveningReport.nz or, subscribe to the Evening Report podcast here.

The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top  Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication.

Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category. You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

A View from Afar – In this podcast, political scientist Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning will analyse the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Specifically, we will examine how the invading forces of Russia are struggling against a determined and well-equipped Ukraine defence.

What can we expect next from Russia?

How can western nations sustain the sanctions regime, and is there an intensifying risk of sanctions evasion taking place?

How stable is the wider region, and how serious is the fomenting unrest among the Balkan states?

How advanced is the Eurozone in facing the reality that Russia has the advantage of cutting gas supplies as winter advances in the next few months?

How sustainable is Russia’s alliance-making effort with the Stan states, the PRC, and what the west regards as rogue states like Iran, Venezuela, DPRK, Cuba, Nicaragua?

And finally, how can Russian Federation president, Vladimir Putin survive a military stalemate?

Join Paul and Selwyn for this LIVE recording of this podcast while they consider these big issues, and remember any comments you make while live can be included in this programme.

You can comment on this debate by clicking on one of these social media channels and interacting in the social media’s comment area. Here are the links:

• Facebook.com/selwyn.manning
• Youtube
• Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning

If you miss the LIVE Episode, you can see it as video-on-demand, and earlier episodes too, by checking out EveningReport.nz or, subscribe to the Evening Report podcast here.

The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top  Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication.

Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category. You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

A View from Afar – In this podcast, political scientist Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning will approach this episode in two parts.

First we will detail what to expect from the NATO leaders’ summit, which includes addresses from the prime ministers of Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

Why is NATO including addresses of NATO partners in this year’s leaders’ summit? 

And secondly, are we beginning to see changes to the pre-pandemic globalisation framework? Are we witnessing a response to the breakdown of the global economic order?

If so, what does the emergence of near-shoring and friend-shoring mean for supply-chain issues, cost of living, and the global economy?

Join Paul and Selwyn for this LIVE recording of this podcast while they consider these big issues, and remember any comments you make while live can be included in this programme.

You can comment on this debate by clicking on one of these social media channels and interacting in the social media’s comment area. Here are the links:

• Facebook.com/selwyn.manning
• Youtube
• Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning

If you miss the LIVE Episode, you can see it as video-on-demand, and earlier episodes too, by checking out EveningReport.nz or, subscribe to the Evening Report podcast here.

The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top  Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication.

Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category. You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.