Timing is everything. And from China’s perspective, this week’s visit by its foreign minister to New Zealand could be coming at just the right moment. The visit by Wang Yi to Wellington will be his first since 2017.

Anniversaries are important to Beijing. It is more than just a happy coincidence that the visit is taking place during the tenth anniversary year of the signing of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between China and New Zealand.

That agreement, signed during a visit to Wellington by Xi Jinping in November 2014, marked the start of glory days for bilateral trade. New Zealand’s exports to China have roughly doubled in value since Xi’s visit. They now stand at nearly $NZ21 billion annually. Imports are not far behind, but there is still a trade surplus of some $NZ3 billion in New Zealand’s favour.

Indeed, China has been New Zealand’s biggest two-way trading partner since 2017. A consistent flow of agricultural exports to China – especially milk powder and meat – helped to keep New Zealand afloat during the Covid-19 pandemic while both countries’ borders were closed.

However, New Zealand’s exports to China fell last year for the first time (except for covid-affected 2020) since the 2014 pact was signed. Goods exports took a particular tumble, falling $NZ1.7 billion from 2022 levels in the year to December 2023. Only a post-pandemic recovery in services exports, driven by travel, was able to mask a greater fall. But it was not enough to prevent a $NZ500 million drop overall.

The removal of China’s last remaining tariffs on New Zealand dairy products at the start of 2024 may provide some hope for improvement this year.

But forecasts for China’s economy are mixed and a bumpy post-Covid 19 recovery seems likely. After an expansion of 5.2 per cent in 2023, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts China’s economy will grow by only 4.6 per cent this year and 4.1 per cent in 2025.

Given its food-focused exports, New Zealand is particularly vulnerable to sluggish Chinese economic growth. Tourism is also affected: visitor numbers from China for November 2023 were just 52 per cent of those seen during the same month four years earlier, before the pandemic.

A visit by Wang Yi cannot solve these wider macroeconomic problems. But it will put New Zealand’s crucial relationship with China in the spotlight.

There is every chance the trip could set the stage for an anniversary year visit to Wellington by Xi Jinping later in 2024.

However, whether this occurs will be highly dependent on New Zealand’s next steps in relation to Aukus.

It can be taken as read that Wang will have strong words for Winston Peters, his New Zealand counterpart, about Wellington’s apparent enthusiasm to entertain joining ‘Pillar II’ of the new pact.

The tea leaves are still being read after Labour lost power in the October 2023 election and a new three-way, centre-right coalition led by the National Party’s Christopher Luxon took office the following month.

A joint statement issued by Australia and New Zealand after the countries’ foreign and defence ministers met in Melbourne in early February claimed Aukus was making ‘a positive contribution toward maintaining peace, security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific.’

Reaction from the Chinese Embassy in Wellington to the text was typically furious. In an apparent reference to another section of the joint statement which expressed ‘grave concerns about human rights violations in Xinjiang’, a spokesperson argued that ‘groundless accusations have been made on China’s internal affairs’.

Meanwhile, on Aukus, the Embassy asserted that the pact ran counter to ‘the common interests of regional countries pursuing peace, stability and common security’. The spokesperson asked ‘relevant countries’ to ‘cherish the hard-won environment for peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region, and be prudent with their words and action to maintain peace, stability and development’.

An indirect, yet ultimately harder-hitting rebuke came from the Chinese Ambassador to New Zealand himself, Wang Xiaolong. Lamenting a lack of options after a last-minute cancellation of a flight to Auckland the day after the joint statement was issued, the Ambassador posted on X: ‘Stuck at Wellington airport clueless as to what to do due to the cancellation of my flight to Auckland and the lack of alternatives. Right now, I am really missing the high-speed trains back in China.’

The displeasure could not be clearer.

Earlier, New Zealand’s new government had sought to move swiftly on Aukus, particularly after Labour itself had laid the groundwork for the new Government by issuing a set of three hawkish defence blueprints just months before the election.

In December, Judith Collins, the defence minister, said that a failure to join Aukus in some form was ‘a real opportunity lost by the previous government’. Christopher Luxon then appeared to back her, telling media: ‘we’re interested in exploring Pillar II, particularly in Aukus, and the new technologies and the opportunities that may mean for New Zealand’. Meanwhile, Winston Peters called for greater NZ-US cooperation in the Pacific, saying ‘we will not achieve our shared ambitions if we allow time to drift’.

However, the Aukus tide may be turning.

Bonnie Jenkins, the US Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security, visited New Zealand in early March and told media: ‘we’re still in the process of having discussions about additional partners’, adding ‘that’s not where we’re at right now’.

Speech notes for an address to be given by Jenkins also seemed restrained.

The lack of a concrete Aukus membership offer is not a new argument. In May 2023, New Zealand’s then Labour Prime Minister Chris Hipkins called the idea of joining ‘purely hypothetical’.

However, gradual shifts in language since then – culminating with Luxon’s comments in December – had suggested that a more specific proposal was afoot.

A looming US election was also a logical reason for New Zealand to act on Aukus sooner rather than later.

But perhaps nothing had ever really changed. A new government in Wellington might have been getting ahead of itself.

Alternatively, it could be that a rethink is now going on in Canberra, London and Washington over the merits of asking Wellington – or others – to become involved with Aukus at all.

In New Zealand itself, opposition to the deal also appears to be increasing in intensity. Labour is appearing to back away from its ‘open to conversations’ approach to Aukus that was set by former Prime Minister Chris Hipkins during a visit by Anthony Blinken to New Zealand in July.

In February, Phil Twyford, the party’s associate foreign affairs spokesperson, described Aukus as an ‘offensive warfighting alliance against China’. And David Parker, Labour’s main spokesperson, said ‘we’re not convinced we should be positioning China as a foe’.

The same month, high-profile former Labour Prime Minister Helen Clark co-wrote an opinion piece in the New Zealand Herald newspaper with Don Brash, a former right-wing rival. The strongly-worded article called on Luxon to ‘reassert New Zealand’s independent foreign policy by making it clear that we want no part of Aukus’.

Finally, questions are being asked in Australia about the future of the original purpose of Aukus – to give Canberra nuclear-powered submarines – following a US decision to cut production of ‘Virginia’ class submarines in half from 2025.

Adding to the uncertainty is Donald Trump’s presumptive nominee status in the US presidential election campaign. A survey conducted in August 2023 found 37 per cent of Australians thought Canberra should pull out of the wider Anzus alliance if Trump wins in November. Meanwhile, Trump’s own stance on the Aukus deal remains unknown.

If all is not well with ‘Pillar I’ of Aukus, it is hard to see an expansion to ‘Pillar II’ in the short-term.

For China’s Wang Yi, the potential wavering over Aukus is an opportunity.

The clock is certainly ticking, but no final decisions have been made.

There is still time for Beijing to make its case to Wellington.

Geoffrey Miller is the Democracy Project’s geopolitical analyst and writes on current New Zealand foreign policy and related geopolitical issues. He has lived in Germany and the Middle East and is a learner of Arabic and Russian. He is currently working on a PhD at the University of Otago on New Zealand’s relations with the Gulf states.

This article can be republished for free under a Creative Commons copyright-free license. Attributions should include a link to the Democracy Project (https://democracyproject.nz)

New Zealand is reshaping its foreign policy via the Middle East. A decision to provide intelligence support for future US and UK airstrikes on Yemen is highly symbolic.

The Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon, announced the deployment of the New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) troops to support the US-led military response to the attacks on commercial shipping from Houthis in Yemen that began on November 19.

In announcing the contribution, Luxon played down its uniqueness, saying ‘choosing to support action in the Middle East is not unusual for New Zealand’. This was immediately echoed by his foreign minister, Winston Peters, who argued the ‘support for maritime security in the Middle East is not new’.

A ‘fact sheet’ released by the Government compared the NZDF contribution to other multilateral efforts in the Middle East such as the UN Truce Supervision Organisation (UNTSO) mission that has been ongoing since 1954.

The fact sheet also pointed to New Zealand’s role in the Bahrain-based Combined Maritime Forces (CMF), a mission for which Wellington has provided support in some form since 2008 and continuously since 2013.

The CMF brings together 40 countries in four separate Combined Task Forces (CTF). While all of these overlap to some extent, New Zealand has traditionally focused its contribution of up to 12 personnel on CTF 150, which concentrates more on criminal activities such as piracy, narcotics and smuggling.

To date, New Zealand has not been involved in CTF 153, ‘Red Sea Maritime Security’, a relatively new mission that was established in April 2022. CTF 153 is now serving as the umbrella for ‘Operation Prosperity Guardian’, a new naval patrol mission involving over 20 countries announced in December by US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin.

New Zealand’s announcement made no mention of Operation Prosperity Guardian.

Instead, the NZDF contribution appears to be for the much smaller and far more elite coalition that is backing joint US-UK airstrikes on Yemen.

US Central Command (Centcom) listed Australia, Bahrain, Canada and the Netherlands as support partners for a second round of joint US-UK airstrikes conducted earlier this week.

They are the same countries that participated in the first wave of joint airstrikes, against 60 Houthi targets, on January 11.

New Zealand signed a joint statement in support of that operation, but was not otherwise involved in it.

Following Tuesday’s announcement, New Zealand can now expect to be included on the list of supporting countries for future airstrikes. So far, the aim of these has been to destroy Houthi infrastructure such as missile systems, radar units and other military facilities.

In between the joint missions, the US has also conducted smaller airstrikes against Houthi infrastructure on its own, according to Centcom.

The bombings constitute the sharper, more hawkish end of Washington’s military response to the Houthis.

Luxon suggested on Tuesday that New Zealand’s contribution would be intelligence-related and would support ‘precision targeting’ in any future airstrikes.

To some extent this will be driven simply by New Zealand’s limited capabilities, given that Wellington disbanded the combat wing of its airforce in 2001.

Still, while New Zealand’s efforts will be small and almost certainly desk-bound, they are in a very different league to New Zealand’s long-running peacekeeping efforts in Egypt and Lebanon, or even the largely deterrence-driven naval mission based out of Bahrain.

Put simply, New Zealand will be one of just a handful of countries that are bombing Yemen.

As Richard Harman points out, many countries willing to participate in Operation Prosperity Guardian, such as Singapore, are staying well away from involvement in the airstrikes.

The military involvement represents a huge shift for New Zealand’s independent foreign policy – and is uncharted territory when it comes to the Middle East.

Unlike Australia, New Zealand strongly opposed the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Wellington did deploy troops to the anti-ISIS coalition in February 2015 – with then Prime Minister John Key shouting at opponents in Parliament to ‘get some guts and join the right side’.

But that operation was at the invitation of the Iraqi government – and New Zealand was joining a broad-based international coalition that brought together dozens of countries from the outset.

On Tuesday, Winston Peters forcefully rejected any connection between New Zealand’s new military contribution and the war in Gaza, saying ‘any suggestion our ongoing support for maritime security in the Middle East is connected to recent developments in Israel and the Gaza Strip, is wrong’.

However, the Houthis have clearly linked their attacks with the war in Gaza and have pledged to continue for as long as the war goes on.

There is little doubt that the war between Hamas and Israel is exacerbating conflict throughout the Middle East – with outbreaks of tit-for-tat attacks happening everywhere from Lebanon to Pakistan.

On the Arab street, there has been an outpouring of sympathy and solidarity for the Palestinian cause – matched in equal measure by anger towards Israel.

While the airstrikes on Yemen may help international shipping in the very short term, they will also galvanise support for the Houthis.

Ultimately, the root causes of the instability will need to be addressed if there is to be any sustainable solution.

This includes Yemen’s own disastrous humanitarian situation, following years of civil war, but also the war in Gaza and the lack of a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Shortly before the New Zealand military contribution to the Yemen airstrikes was announced, Peters posted on X that ‘New Zealand is deeply concerned at recent comments by members of the Israeli Government that fuel tensions & imperil the two state solution. New Zealand has always supported a two state solution – and has consistently engaged w/Israel & the Palestinians on that basis’.

https://twitter.com/NewZealandMFA/status/1749538284873912591

Peters’ diagnosis of the need for a long-term, two-state political solution is not wrong – and New Zealand’s good reputation in the Middle East and its traditionally independent stance still puts Wellington in a good position to play a small, yet very useful diplomatic role.

But as New Zealand backs the airstrikes against the Houthis, the window of opportunity to take the dialogue and de-escalation pathway may be gradually closing.

It is hard to overstate the significance of New Zealand’s new military deployment to the Middle East.

The troop numbers are small – but the potential ramifications are enormous.

Wellington is drawing a line in the sand.

And it could be the beginning of the end for New Zealand’s independent foreign policy.

Geoffrey Miller is the Democracy Project’s geopolitical analyst and writes on current New Zealand foreign policy and related geopolitical issues. He has lived in Germany and the Middle East and is a learner of Arabic and Russian. He is currently working on a PhD at the University of Otago on New Zealand’s relations with the Gulf states.

In this the first episode of A View from Afar for 2023 political scientist Dr Paul Buchanan and host Selwyn Manning examine the pros and cons of New Zealand, and other APAC nations, joining the AUKUS security defence pact.

Specifically, Paul and Selwyn examine the following questions:

* What is AUKUS’s purpose?

* What are the risks to New Zealand’s national and public interest?

* What does AUKUS ‘success’ look like? What could its failure look like?

Paul presents the reasons why he believes New Zealand will not join AUKUS, and Selwyn delivers his assessment of why New Zealand must not join the Anglophile security pact.

ALSO, Paul and Selwyn will headline:

* The latest on the US Pentagon leaks. What really is happening here?

* The Global Geopolitical Theatre and how stable is Russian Federation’s president, Vladimir Putin’s regime?

INTERACTION: Paul and Selwyn invite and encourage you to interact with your questions and comments.

They recommend you do so via EveningReport’s YouTube channel, or via Facebook. Here’s the link: Youtube (remember to subscribe to the channel).

You can also keep the conversation going on this debate by clicking on one of the social media channels below:

• Facebook.com/selwyn.manning
• Youtube
• Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning

You can see this episode as video-on-demand, and engage with earlier episodes too, by checking out EveningReport.nz or, subscribe to the Evening Report podcast here.

RECOGNITION:

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Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category. You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

This weekend’s visit to Australia by New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins speaks volumes about major changes underway in New Zealand foreign policy.

Hipkins is flying to Brisbane – Australia’s third-biggest city and home to around 100,000 New Zealand citizens – to meet with his counterpart, Anthony Albanese.

The trip’s significance comes in part from its timing. Hipkins is visiting just before Anzac Day on 25 April. On this day each year, Australia and New Zealand both remember the role played and losses suffered by the Australian and New Zealand Army Corps (or Anzac for short) in World War I, and by their forces in other conflicts.

In advance of the New Zealand PM’s travel, a new partnership called ‘Plan Anzac’ has been unveiled which promises ‘sustained cooperation’ between the Australian and New Zealand militaries. The arrangement covers a wide range of areas that include ‘strategic engagement, capability, training, readiness and common personnel issues’.

Hipkins’ visit is also expected to serve as an occasion for Australia to unveil a more generous pathway to citizenship for the near million-strong population of New Zealanders living in Australia – an attempt at putting to bed disquiet from New Zealanders who feel Australia has not upheld traditional Anzac ‘mateship’.

There is no better time of year for Canberra and Wellington to send signals of unity.

And the bonhomie comes as New Zealand increasingly follows in Australia’s foreign policy footsteps.

The most recent example of the alignment came in the acceptance by both Albanese and Hipkins of an invitation to the NATO leaders’ summit in Lithuania this July.

The joint RSVP was almost certainly coordinated between Canberra and Wellington.

After NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg publicly invited the pair to attend the meeting a fortnight ago, Hipkins initially remained non-committal, telling reporters he hadn’t decided on whether he would attend and pointedly noting his busy schedule during New Zealand’s election year.

Media reports surfaced soon afterwards that claimed Albanese would be a no-show in Vilnius.

The reporting was not initially denied.

Albanese already has a packed international calendar this year. The Australian PM perhaps thought that his guest attendance at the G7 in Hiroshima and hosting of a Quad (Australia, India, Japan and the United States) leaders’ summit in Sydney next month would be more than enough to satisfy US and European leaders.

If Albanese himself was planning on skipping NATO, this also explained why Hipkins showed a marked lack of enthusiasm.

But criticism by political rivals and commentators – and perhaps some pressure behind the scenes – appeared to change Albanese’s mind and by Monday this week, the Australian leader was saying he ‘would be very pleased to accept’ the NATO invitation.

Yesterday, Hipkins announced that he would also be heading to Vilnius.

In other words, Australia led – and New Zealand followed.

The countries are also becoming closer in other ways.

Most notably, New Zealand defence minister Andrew Little signalled last month that Wellington was interested in joining a second ‘pillar’ of the AUKUS arrangements that focuses on cybertechnology.

A week later, Little held talks in Wellington with his Australian counterpart, Richard Marles.

Little was typically circumspect about the substance of the talks and played down the AUKUS element.

However, Marles noted ‘alignment’ between Australia and New Zealand, adding ‘it’s really important that we are working as closely together as possible’.

The pair’s meeting came not long after a visit to New Zealand by Kurt Campbell, the White House’s Indo-Pacific coordinator – illustrating how pressures and interests from further afield are also at play, a factor reinforced by the NATO invitation.

Then there is the small matter of TikTok.

Both Australia and New Zealand have issued bans over the past month – and surprisingly, this time New Zealand appeared to be the leader, not the follower.

In March, New Zealand’s Parliamentary Service effectively banned use of the smartphone app, owned by Chinese company ByteDance, by MPs and staffers who accessed Parliament’s network.

The move followed a directive (issued in November 2022, although only publicly revealed months later) by New Zealand’s Defence Force ordering its personnel to delete TikTok from their devices.

For its part, Australia waited until earlier this month to make its decision– but it then issued a far more sweeping ban that prohibited the use of TikTok on devices used by employees at all Australian federal government departments and agencies.

It was also reported that more than half of Australia’s federal government agencies had already banned TikTok.

This suggested Australia was the leader after all.

If alignment is a keyword in the 2023 version of the Australia-New Zealand relationship, another is ‘interoperability’.

Little spoke of the need for a ‘seamless sort of interoperability’ with Australia after taking on the defence portfolio earlier this year – and the word is also used repeatedly to justify the new ‘Plan Anzac’ military partnership.

Expect to hear more about the need for New Zealand to harmonise its capabilities with those of Australia – especially when the results of New Zealand’s Defence Policy Review are soon announced.

The outcome of the Defence Policy Review is also likely to serve as a justification for New Zealand to announce greater military spending.

It remains to be seen how China will react to New Zealand’s increasing willingness to fall in line with Australia – and with NATO.

Trade repercussions seem unlikely, although cannot be ruled out if New Zealand becomes deeply intertwined with Aukus.

China and Australia are currently in a healing phase over trade, after Beijing effectively offered to settle a dispute with Canberra over the tariffs China imposed in 2020 on Australia’s barley exports.

In the short term, any displeasure from China at New Zealand’s decision to take a more Australia-friendly path is more likely to come in the form of ‘playing hard to get’.

A notable omission from Hipkins’ travel announcements this week was any confirmation of a trip to China.

In her final months in office, Jacinda Ardern indicated she was seeking to visit China early in 2023 – a plan that Hipkins initially reaffirmed, but later walked back.

In the announcement of Chris Hipkins’ travel plans this week, the Prime Minister’s office did add that the Government was ‘continuing to pursue a trade focused trip to China later in the year’.

But for Hipkins to visit China, he will need an invitation.

And that invitation may have just become that much harder to obtain.

After all, Chris Hipkins is choosing Brisbane over Beijing.

At least for now.

Geoffrey Miller is the Democracy Project’s geopolitical analyst and writes on current New Zealand foreign policy and related geopolitical issues. He has lived in Germany and the Middle East and is a learner of Arabic and Russian. He is currently working on a PhD on New Zealand’s relations with the Gulf states.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has New Zealand firmly in its sights.

Last week, New Zealand’s foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta attended the annual NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels – alongside her counterparts from Australia, Japan and South Korea.

Mahuta’s participation came after New Zealand’s then Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern joined last June’s NATO leaders’ summit in Madrid. Mahuta was also a guest at the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in April 2022, albeit only in virtual form.

At a more granular level, a NATO military delegation visited New Zealand last month for meetings with officials in Wellington. The head of the delegation said NATO was ‘determined’ to ‘deepen and strengthen our cooperation with our Indo-Pacific partners’.

And this week, top NATO official Benedetta Berti is visiting Wellington. As part of her visit, Berti – who heads NATO’s Policy Planning Unit in the Secretary General’s office – will speak to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs (NZIIA) on the impact of the war in Ukraine on the Indo-Pacific. Berti will also explain why NATO is seeking to expand its ties with countries in the region such as New Zealand, according to advance NZIIA publicity material for the event.

The grouping of four Indo-Pacific countries is sometimes referred to as the AP4, or ‘Asia Pacific Four’, particularly by the more hawkish Australia and Japan.

So far, New Zealand has tended to avoid using the AP4 acronym, perhaps to play down the implication that Wellington has joined yet another new bloc.

The website of New Zealand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) contains only a single mention of the AP4 – after Mahuta’s attendance at the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting last year. There is no mention of AP4 at all on the Ministry of Defence or Beehive ministerial websites, according to a Google search.

NATO itself has also generally shied away from using the AP4 acronym, perhaps in deference to New Zealand’s sensibilities. But this might be starting to change. Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO Secretary General, talked openly about the potential of the AP4 at a speech at Tokyo’s Keio University in February.

In that address, Stoltenberg told his audience that NATO had ‘in many ways…already institutionalised’ the AP4 and described the four countries’ participation at the NATO leaders’ summit in Spain in 2022 as a ‘historic moment’.

We can expect to hear much more about the AP4 in the future.

Stoltenberg has publicly invited all four AP4 leaders to attend this year’s leaders’ summit in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius.

In diplomatic terms, this probably means New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and the other three AP4 leaders have already decided to go.

This is significant.

For one thing, it means Jacinda Ardern’s presence at last year’s NATO summit in Madrid was not just a one-off move to show solidarity with NATO countries in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Second, it shows how New Zealand is continuing to forge a more hardline foreign policy stance under Hipkins’ leadership.

After all, the involvement of the AP4 in NATO is being driven chiefly by the alliance’s interest in China.

At the Madrid summit last year, NATO launched its new long-term Strategic Concept that openly called out China for its ‘stated ambitions and coercive policies’ and pinpointed Beijing as a source of ‘systemic challenges’ for the alliance.

And much of the press conference after last week’s NATO foreign ministers’ meeting that New Zealand’s Nanaia Mahuta also attended was focused squarely on China.

Stoltenberg told media that China was ‘coming closer to us’ and cited a range of familiar Western criticisms of Beijing – ranging from its ‘assertive behaviour’ in the South China Sea, to actions over Hong Kong, Taiwan and its ties with Moscow – that made it necessary for NATO to ‘update and develop’ its stance towards China.

Indeed, the NATO Secretary General openly linked the alliance’s recent deepening of partnerships with Indo-Pacific countries such as New Zealand with NATO’s China strategy – which he called a ‘huge effort’.

Of course, unlike Finland – which became NATO’s 31st member last week – New Zealand cannot formally join NATO, given the alliance’s geographic focus.

But if New Zealand continues to align itself with NATO as part of the AP4 – which could be seen as ‘NATO plus’ – the implications could be as significant as the extraordinary signals from defence minister Andrew Little that Wellington could soon join non-nuclear components of the AUKUS pact between Australia, the United Kingdom and United States.

For one, it means that New Zealand will almost certainly strive to meet NATO’s military spending target of 2 per cent of GDP – a figure which Stoltenberg described last week as a ‘floor not a ceiling’.

To that end, New Zealand’s defence minister Andrew Little is continuing a softening-up campaign in the media to pave the way for greater military spending, ahead of the imminent reporting-back of a defence policy review committee and the Government’s Budget in May.

Any response from Beijing to the latest developments on New Zealand’s involvement with NATO and AUKUS has yet to be fully felt.

But China – New Zealand’s biggest trading partner – made no secret of its displeasure after Jacinda Ardern attended the NATO summit in Spain last year. At the time, the Chinese Embassy in Wellington issued a statement noting Beijing’s opposition to ‘all kinds of military alliances, bloc politics, or exclusive small groups’, while a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said NATO should not seek to ‘replicate the kind of bloc confrontation seen in Europe here in the Asia-Pacific’.

After the NATO meeting in Madrid in June 2022, Jacinda Ardern gradually reined in New Zealand’s more hawkish positioning with more soothing tones towards Beijing – culminating in her meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Thailand in November and her pledge to travel to China early in 2023.

Upon taking over the Prime Ministerial role from Ardern in January, Hipkins said a trip to China would be high on his priority list – but the signals have been rather mixed since then. Last month, Hipkins appeared to play down expectations of a visit to Beijing, citing ‘moving parts’ and domestic pressures during New Zealand’s election year.

Delaying an invitation to New Zealand’s Prime Minister to visit China would certainly be one way for Beijing to signal frustration.

Chris Hipkins may well be heading to the NATO summit in Vilnius.

But it could mean he has to wait longer to visit Beijing.

Geoffrey Miller is the Democracy Project’s geopolitical analyst and writes on current New Zealand foreign policy and related geopolitical issues. He has lived in Germany and the Middle East and is a learner of Arabic and Russian. He is currently working on a PhD on New Zealand’s relations with the Gulf states.

Political Roundup: NZ’s foreign policy hardens under new leadership

Times are changing in New Zealand foreign policy.

That seems to be the message from New Zealand’s new triumvirate of ministers with responsibility for foreign affairs and defence – Prime Minister Chris Hipkins, foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta and defence minister Andrew Little.

Jacinda Ardern’s departure as Prime Minister was always going to provide an opportunity to adjust New Zealand’s positioning. In particular, Hipkins’ decision to appoint Andrew Little as defence minister – replacing Peeni Henare – seems to have been a strategic move.

From the top, Hipkins has struck a more ideological tone in his most substantive comments on foreign policy to date, promising in a recent interview that New Zealand would maintain ‘steadfast support for Ukraine and its people as they continue to defend their homeland, and in doing so, the principles that we hold dear’.

The comments appeared notably more forceful than what amounted to the final word on Ukraine made by Jacinda Ardern while she was Prime Minister, made in mid-December when the New Zealand Parliament hosted a virtual address by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

In her response to Zelensky at the time, Ardern seemed largely content to reiterate her government’s current level of assistance to Ukraine. The then Prime Minister told the Ukrainian President ‘I want to acknowledge your further calls for support’, but pledged only a relatively small amount of additional humanitarian aid to the Red Cross.

Hipkins’ shift in tone raises the possibility that more support from New Zealand could be in the works – perhaps including more money for ‘lethal aid’ weaponry to help Ukraine in any spring counter-offensive, or at least equipment that could be usefully deployed on the battlefield.

It has now been eleven months since New Zealand made its first and so far only lethal aid contribution to the war so far, which came in the form of a $NZ7.5m transfer to the United Kingdom to purchase weapons on New Zealand’s behalf.

Since the cash-for-weapons announcement last April, New Zealand’s assistance has focused on sanctions, money for non-lethal and humanitarian aid and on sending a small number of New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) personnel to Europe to train Ukrainian soldiers.

To that end, Little’s recent comments that the Government is at least giving ‘further consideration’ to Ukrainian requests for New Zealand to send it light armoured vehicles (LAVs) are intriguing.

New Zealand reportedly has 74 working LAVs, but Peeni Henare, Little’s predecessor as defence minister, rejected a request by Ukraine to send them last August.

Henare’s rejection was made ostensibly on technical grounds, motivated by factors such as a lack of spare parts and troops to provide training. This rationale has always seemed unconvincing and more like an excuse to maintain a firewall on sending more material support to Kyiv.

In the US, the Biden administration argued for some time that its own Abrams tanks needed too much fuel and heavy maintenance to be useful to Kyiv – only to eventually give in and send the hardware that Kyiv had been asking for in a deal announced in January.

Ukraine’s non-resident ambassador to New Zealand, Vasyl Myroshnychenko, says Canada could help to fix the LAVs – a suggestion that Little appears to at least be contemplating, based on his comment that ‘we would want to work with partners in terms of any support that we can provide.’

Exactly where the truth lies remains to be seen: Hipkins was non-committal and admitted ‘I haven’t got the latest information’ when asked about the LAVs at his post-cabinet press conference on Monday.

Still, there is far more to the foreign policy shifts than just a sharper tone (and potentially an upgrade in substance) when it comes to Ukraine. The defence portfolio provides further clues.

New Zealand’s military has essentially been in a holding pattern since Labour’s outright victory in the 2020 election. A formal ‘Defence Policy Review’ process was announced last July, with a rather generous final reporting date set for mid-2024.

But Little has suggested in media interviews that work on the review needs to ‘accelerate’ amidst a ‘materially different’ geopolitical environment.

The new defence minister noted increased military spending and activity by Japan, France, the UK and Australia in the Indo-Pacific, adding ‘there’s an expectation that we will demonstrate some leadership’.

It seems likely that this will involve New Zealand significantly boosting its defence spending and cooperating more closely with the countries Little mentioned.

While he was reluctant to comment on specifics, pointing to the review, Little suggested a ‘different range of maritime capability’ could be needed so that New Zealand could satisfy defence needs both closer to home and ‘further abroad’.

Major spending decisions may be just months away.

Under the original terms of reference for the Defence Policy Review, an initial draft of a new defence policy and strategy was to be submitted by October 2022, while a ‘future force design principles statement’ was expected by this April.

Those deadlines were subsequently pushed back even further: the strategy document is now reportedly due this month and the future force statement in June.

In between the two, on May 17, will be the Government’s first budget since Chris Hipkins took over as Prime Minister.

Given Little’s comments on the need to expedite the review process – and the fact that the election is scheduled to be held just five months after the budget, on October 17 – it seems plausible that funding decisions will now be based on just the initial strategy document.

In fact, in all likelihood, the decisions have already been made, with the review process simply serving as cover.

New Zealand’s military spending drifted slightly downwards to 1.4 per cent of GDP in 2021, according to figures from the World Bank.

But amidst a new wave of militarisation around the world, there seems little doubt that New Zealand’s spending will soon see a sharp rise.

China’s announcement at the weekend that it will increase its defence spending by an ‘appropriate’ amount will only provide further justification for a boost.

Countries around the Indo-Pacific are lifting military spending: Australia’s defence minister recently promised the country would soon take its ‘biggest step forward’, while India has announced a spending increase of 13 per cent.

A major uptick in the defence budget might seem at odds with Hipkins’ pledge to focus on ‘bread and butter’ domestic issues focused on the cost of living.

But the military spend is likely to be sold at least in part as a social and climate change policy response: in interviews, Little repeatedly spoke of ‘attrition’ in the ranks since the outbreak of Covid-19. He also referred to the difficulties New Zealand’s military would face in responding to a ‘significant disaster recovery exercise’ in the Pacific, pointing to the defence force’s role in New Zealand in the aftermath of Cyclone Gabrielle.

This brings us to the foreign minister, Nanaia Mahuta, who visited Japan and Singapore last week.

While ‘strengthening economic partnerships’ was the stated aim of Mahuta’s trip, in reality the mission rather predictably ended up being far more about hard security. As if to underline this, Mahuta met in Singapore not with her foreign minister counterpart, Vivian Balakrishnan, but with Singaporean defence minister Ng Eng Hen.

And earlier, during Nanaia Mahuta’s visit to Tokyo, New Zealand signed on to a rather hawkish joint statement with Japan on cooperation in the Pacific that agreed the region should remain ‘inclusive, stable and prosperous, and free from foreign interference and coercion’ – phrasing clearly aimed at China.

But the threats posed by climate change were also repeatedly mentioned in the document as rationale for a ‘family first approach to peace and security’ in the Pacific.

The most specific outcome from Mahuta’s trip to Tokyo was an undertaking by New Zealand and Japan to speed up discussions on an intelligence-sharing agreement that was signalled during Jacinda Ardern’s own visit to Japan last year.

Japan recently announced plans to double its defence budget to reach the NATO target of 2 per cent of GDP by 2027 – a decision that will see $NZ500 billion in spending in the next five years and will make Japan the third-biggest military spender in the world.

Interestingly, the Japanese foreign ministry’s account of Mahuta’s meeting with her Japanese counterpart, Yoshimasa Hayashi, described Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea as a group of ‘like-minded countries’.

Japan-New Zealand Foreign Ministers’ Meeting#JapanNewZealand
https://t.co/uMCRq5JDp2 pic.twitter.com/1teC6YSmnH

— MOFA of Japan (@MofaJapan_en) February 28, 2023

This suggests that the ‘AP4’ format from last year’s NATO summit in Spain may endure and could yet turn into something of a mini-alliance. Leaders from all four Asia-Pacific (or ‘AP’) countries were invited guests at the NATO gathering in Madrid and held a separate meeting on the event’s sidelines.

While there are many geopolitical uncertainties, one thing is clear.

Across the Indo-Pacific, countries are rearming.

And New Zealand looks set to join the pack.

Geoffrey Miller is the Democracy Project’s geopolitical analyst and writes on current New Zealand foreign policy and related geopolitical issues. He has lived in Germany and the Middle East and is a learner of Arabic and Russian. He is currently working on a PhD on New Zealand’s relations with the Gulf states.

Other items of interest and importance today

PUBLIC SERVICE CONSULTANTS AND CONTRACTORS
Audrey Young (Herald): Consultants and contractors – where the money was spent in the public service (paywalled)
Anna Whyte (Stuff): $1.2 billion spent by core public service on consultants and contractors a year – where does the money go?
Russel Palmer (RNZ): Hipkins defends public sector spending on consultants, contractors
Jem Traylen (BusinessDesk): Can $400m be trimmed from the government’s contractors and consultants bill? (paywalled)
Esther Taunton (Stuff): What is a consultant, anyway?

NATIONAL PARTY POLICY ANNOUNCEMENTS, CHILDCARE
Chris Trotter (Interest): Settling for the ‘least worst’
Gordon Campbell: On childcare as an election bribe
Glenn McConnell (Stuff): The pressure’s on, but neither Labour or National will commit to free childcare
Felix Desmarais (1News): Nats to regulate ECE on ‘quality not box-ticking’
Mike Hosking (Newstalk ZB): National have the key to an election win
ODT Editorial: National’s well-placed lob
Herald Editorial: National’s recipe for struggling families (paywalled)
David Farrar (Patreon): Why National’s ECE tax credits is such smart politics (paywalled)
Tova O’Brien (Today FM): Is there such a thing as becoming too centrist?
Dileepa Fonseka (BusinessDesk): Plane sailing: Luxon pitches to fix things (paywalled)
Martyn Bradbury (Daily Blog): The real problem with consultants and why child care should be free
1News: National’s proposed childcare rebate won’t work – ACT
Zarina Hewlett (Today FM): National’s childcare policy will see cutbacks from ‘go nowhere’ projects, says Nicola Willis

ROB CAMPBELL PUBLIC SERVICE
Jonathan Milne (Newsroom): Sacked health chair used up at least $125k in fees in three months
Rob Campbell (Stuff): Public service bosses of ‘Pyongponeke’ forget who they are supposed to serve
Adam Pearse (Herald): Pharmac/ACC chairman, former Labour minister Steve Maharey in hot water for public political comments
RNZ: PM says Pharmac chair impartiality issue ‘quite a contrast’ to Rob Campbell
Jenna Lynch (Newshub): Steve Maharey: Another public boss gets political – what’s the difference this time?
Simon Wilson (Herald): Why they sacked Rob Campbell and why that has to stop (paywalled)
The Blue Review: Rob Campbell, my part in his downfall | A chat with Gwynn Compton
Ian McCrae (BusinessDesk): How many unionists does it take to screw up health? Two

ELECTION
Martyn Bradbury (Daily Blog): The possible surprises of the 2023 election
Phil Pennington (RNZ): Voter targeting tools could impact electoral integrity, disinformation expert says
Toby Manhire (Spinoff): ‘Fixing is not austerity’: Chlöe Swarbrick on Wayne Brown, cuts and seeking re-election

TRANSPORT
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): Government confirms change to previous transport priorities, now working on ’emergency style’ plan after Cyclone Gabrielle
Thomas Coughlan (Herald): Government u-turns on transport plan for cycleways and bus lanes, blaming Cyclone Gabrielle
Matthew Hooton (Patreon): Dead cat? (paywalled)
Felix Desmarais (1News): U-turn on emissions-focused transport plan, focus on cyclone recovery
Richard Harman (Politik): Hipkins: “Clearly, there’s been a change in leadership” (paywalled)
RNZ: Emissions still in mix but weather-proofing transport network crucial – Hipkins
RNZ: Hipkins changes transport focus away from agreed emissions reduction
Anna Whyte (Stuff): ‘Emergency style’ transport plan worked on by govt in wake of Cyclone Gabrielle
Heather du Plessis-Allan (Newstalk ZB): U-turn for Transport Minister
No Right Turn: Why we can’t have nice things
Jessica Lynch and Jamie Ensor (Newshub): Government to walk back draft plan prioritising cycle lanes ahead of road maintenance, Newshub understands
Kate Green (RNZ): Waka Kotahi concludes half-price fares not enough to lure more public transport users
John MacDonald (Newstalk ZB): Transport Minister’s huffing and puffing won’t fix roads
Georgina Campbell (Herald): Kaitaki ferry out for two weeks, Interislander disables Facebook comments
Herald: Maritime Transport Union calls for ‘love’ for Cook Strait ferry staff amid disruptions
RNZ: Growing numbers turn to car share services in Wellington
Lloyd Burr (Today FM): Auckland Transport has been broken for too long

EDUCATION, RICHARD DAWKINS, MĀTAURANGA MĀORI
Chris Trotter (Daily Blog): The Revolution Has Begun
Dave Armstrong (Stuff): Dr Dawkins and his misreading of Mātauranga Māori
Don Brash: Richard Dawkins is surely right
Melisa chase (Spinoff): Are we there yet? The slow inclusion of mātauranga Māori in schools
John Gerritsen (RNZ): Some teachers agree Qualifications Authority made trial NCEA tests too hard
John Gerritsen (RNZ): Agencies dispute over how to solve low literacy and numeracy scores

EXTREME WEATHER, INFRASTRUCTURE
Peter Davis (Herald): Our long-term problems keep catching up on us (paywalled)
Willie Jackson (Herald): Targeting cyclone funding to Māori as racist is ugly politics
1News: Findings of review into Auckland flood response delayed
Stephen Forbes (Local Democracy Reporting): Auckland water agency estimates price tag of flood damage at over $250m
1News: More money for cyclone-hit farmers and growers – Govt
RNZ: Cyclone fund for farmers and growers gets $26m expansion
RNZ: Auckland floods, Cyclone Gabrielle to cost insurance industry more than $1b
RNZ: Muriwai residents could wait 6 months before red-stickered property reassessment call
RNZ: Probe finds warehouse designs have multiple design flaws and are safety risk

LOCAL GOVERNMENT, THREE WATERS
Bernard Orsman (Herald): Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown’s cost-cutting budget triggers early job losses with more to come (paywalled)
Todd Niall (Stuff): Job cuts process begins as Auckland Council looks for $295m budget savings
Todd Niall (Stuff): Auckland and the risks of change overload
David Williams (Newsroom): Christchurch sleepwalks towards partial asset sales
Brent Edwards (NBR): Water Users’ Group wants Three Waters legislation withdrawn (paywalled)
Erin Gourley (Stuff): $8 million of pipes funding not provided in Wellington City Council plan
Hamish McNeilly (Stuff): Back to the drawing board as Dunedin council cannot decide on mayoral portraits
Alisha Evans (Local Democracy Reporting): Price increases planned for Tauranga’s council pools and hall hire

HOUSING, BUILDING INDUSTRY
Rob Stock (Stuff): Kiwis pay home loan interest rates others ‘wouldn’t touch with a barge pole’
Damien Venuto (Herald): The Front Page: How much mortgage pain are we in for – and when will interest rates come down? (paywalled)
RNZ: Women still trail men in home ownership stakes
Brent Melville (BusinessDesk): Kiwis track ahead of Aussies in housing co-ownership (paywalled)
Guy Marriage (Newsroom): Let’s end obsession with building poor housing as cheaply as possible
MIke Yardley (Press): Christchurch’s revised housing density plan is palatable, but far from perfect
Matthew Scott (Newsroom): Housing crisis: Queenstown rips at the seams
Miriam Bell (Stuff): Building activity falls for first time since Covid lockdowns
RNZ: Construction sector shows signs of cooling with fall in volume of building work
Zoe Hunter (Herald): Building the next generation: More apprentices needed to meet construction demands (paywalled)

CENSUS
RNZ: 1m and counting: Time ticking on filling in 2023 census
Ashleigh McCaull (RNZ): Iwi-led Census process in rohe makes big difference – Ngāti Wai Trust
David Williams (Newsroom): Trust in census a big issue, survey suggests
Debbie Jamieson (Stuff): Census to miss key data as visitors in short term rentals slip through
Herald: Census 2023 explainer: Everything you need to know
RNZ: Warning over Census scams harvesting information

HEALTH
Lloyd Burr (Today FM): Anatomy of a comms disaster: Pharmac’s Trikafta case
Tom Hunt (Stuff): Not a single fine handed out so far for smoking with kids in cars
Jonine Jancey (Stuff): Sex and lies are used to sell vapes online, even we were surprised at the marketing tactics we found
Tess McClure (Guardian): Make vapes a pharmacy-only drug, say New Zealand health groups
Emile Donovan (Stuff): GPs, anti-smoking charity at odds over vaping proposal
Whena Owen (1News): Q+A: New bill to scrutinise medicine, natural health product claims
Bridie Witton (Stuff): Te Whatu Ora boosts nurses’ pay by thousands but ‘irritation’ remains
RNZ: Covid-19 update: 11,453 new cases, six deaths and 177 in hospital

ENVIRONMENT
James Shaw (Guardian): We can’t afford to choose adaptation over cutting emissions – suggesting otherwise is dangerous
Pattrick Smellie (BusinessDesk): Is bi-partisan support for RMA reform breaking down? (paywalled)
Olivia Wannan (Stuff): Slash and burn: why we should use all that unwanted wood

MEDIA
Martyn Bradbury (Daily Blog): Mediawatch: The problem with Purity of Identity as a media lens in NZ newsrooms
Chris Lynch: RNZ apologises to broadcaster after missing crucial context
Gavin Ellis: Free speech at its best stirring people to anger
Duncan Greive (Spinoff): There’s now Voices for Freedom online radio for people who find The Platform too woke

EMPLOYMENT
Susan Edmunds (Stuff): Minimum wage should be even higher, union says, as inflation erodes increase
Brianna Mcilraith (Stuff): How to ‘quietly quit’ this year without damaging your work reputation
Maria Slade (NBR): Unemployment becoming a foreign concept (paywalled)
RNZ: Working from home: 78 percent of people work remotely some or all of the time

GEORGINA BEYER HAS DIED
1News: Trailblazing MP Georgina Beyer dies aged 65
Glenn McConnell, Piers Fuller and Bess Manson (Stuff): Georgina Beyer, the world’s first openly transgender MP and mayor, has died
RNZ: World’s first openly transgender mayor and MP, Georgina Beyer, has died
Jenna Lynch (Newshub): Georgina Beyer remembered as trailblazer by Prime Minister, Labour’s Rainbow caucus chair
Herald: World’s first openly transgender MP and mayor Georgina Beyer dies aged 65
Guardian: World’s first openly transgender MP, Georgina Beyer, dies in New Zealand aged 65

FOREIGN AFFAIRS, DEFENCE, AND TRADE
Samuel Hume (Jacobin): New Zealand is escalating tensions between China and the West
David Farrar: Mahuta says no to Ukraine
Jayden Holmes (Today FM): International Analyst wary of Tik Tok ban in United States, European Union
Pete McKenzie (North & South): In Our Defence

Political Roundup: Nicky Hager strikes a win for media freedom and democracy

Do New Zealand state spies unlawfully surveil the government’s political critics? Do they spy on critical journalists? Unfortunately, the answer is yes. And yesterday the government domestic security agency was forced to apologise for one instance when they were caught spying on investigative journalist Nicky Hager.

The New Zealand Security Intelligence Service (SIS) has paid Hager $66,400 in compensation and legal fees for breaching his privacy, and made an extraordinary apology to him. In return, Hager has agreed not to take the Government to court.

The payment and apology were for unlawfully obtaining two months of Hager’s phone records in an attempt to uncover the sources Hager used in writing his 2011 book Other People’s Wars. The publication was about New Zealand’s involvement in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The book focused on the role of New Zealand military and intelligence activity that caused the deaths of civilians in Operation Burnham, and was based on information obtained from confidential sources.

Hager’s win is not just a victory for him personally, but more generally for freedom of the press and the ongoing vigilance against state authoritarianism.

Dirty politics from security services?

It was the NZ Defence Force that sought to discover who had provided Hager with the information for his book. They apparently suspected a particular Defence Force officer, but failed to find any evidence in their search of the employee’s home and mobile phone records. So they then requested that the SIS obtain Hager’s personal phone records on the basis of the journalist being involved in “espionage”.

The SIS obtained Hager’s phone records, but the information proved useless in helping the defence forces find his source. Hager suspected that he was under surveillance, and when he officially requested information about this from SIS director Rebecca Kitteridge she refused to confirm or deny anything.

Hager took the issue to the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security, which oversees the SIS as well as the Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB). The SIS was forced to confirm the spying against Hager, but Kitteridge denied any wrongdoing, argued the surveillance was justified on the basis of Hager being involved in potential “espionage” and because he was prejudicing New Zealand’s national security.

The Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security ruled in Hager’s favour. Three years later the SIS has finally agreed to compensation and a proper apology.

The Extraordinary apology from the spies

Yesterday the SIS issued a statement that is worth quoting at length: “Investigative journalists such as Mr Hager play an important role in society, including to provide an additional check on executive functions and powers. The role of Mr Hager is considerably more difficult given his subject matter of expertise and the difficulties of obtaining information which is protected by various and numerous confidentiality mechanisms. NZSIS recognises that its actions in 2012 could have resulted in a chilling effect on such important work. Accordingly, NZSIS apologises unreservedly for breaching Mr Hager’s rights”.

In addition to the apology, the SIS said, “We recognise the important role that journalists play in a free, open and democratic society – the very society the New Zealand intelligence agencies exist to uphold.”

One of Hager’s lawyers, Steven Price, responded to say that “it is nice to see this recognition by the NZSIS of the importance of journalism to our democracy… Journalists need to be able to convey to the public important information from well-placed sources. That process should not be undermined by intelligence officials trying to unlawfully ferret out those sources.”

There is a need to have investigative journalism, and the media in general, as a properly functioning mechanism to hold the powerful to account, including the defence forces. This case shows the SIS have clearly undermined that mechanism.

Hager’s other lawyer, Felix Geiringer rightly said the decision was an “important result for journalism”. He argued that “Our intelligence services are given substantial powers for use to protect New Zealand from harm… Those powers cannot be used to go after a journalist’s sources just because the government does not like what that journalist is saying.”

It should go without saying that journalists depend on being able to assure their sources that they will remain confidential. And the state shouldn’t be allowed to interfere in this by using its immense powers of subterfuge.

Will the state spies reform themselves?

What happened to Hager was dangerous for democracy, and should never have happened. But it’s not clear that it won’t happen again.

The SIS is claiming that it has reformed itself and is now more careful with following the law and will be more transparent. But there are already signs that they are failing to live up to this.

The spy agency claims to have established a new policy for how they deal with the work of journalists. But Hager’s lawyers point out that the SIS is refusing to release that policy. Geiringer says: “The NZSIS needs a clear policy stating when the use of its powers against a journalist would be justified. There also needs to be a rule that only someone sufficiently senior in the organisation can make such a decision. And there is no basis for keeping such a policy secret.”

Hager argues: “The NZSIS needs a clear policy stating when the use of its powers against a journalist would be justified.”

Hager’s lawyers argue that their negotiations with the SIS suggest “that nothing had really changed in the internal culture of the NZSIS”.

They also point out that things might be about to get worse. Geiringer said yesterday that “there is a Bill before Parliament which would prevent our courts from reviewing decisions of intelligence services to withhold documents on national security grounds.” This is a problem, because “External oversight is essential in a democracy”.

Rottenness in the state?

This isn’t the first time Hager has received apologies and compensation from the state. He also got a “substantial” settlement from the Police due to their unlawful raid of his Wellington home after the publication of his book Dirty Politics.

Commenting on the latest state settlement, the chair of the Civil Liberties Council, Thomas Beagle tweeted yesterday, “So now both the Police and SIS have had to apologise to Nicky Hager for misuse of their powers against him. There is something very rotten here.”

Others have commented on the lack of personal accountability from those in the Defence Forces and SIS. The fact that SIS head Rebecca Kitteridge has since received a promotion to become deputy head of the Public Service Commission will also rankle.

There is a concern that some agencies of the state are becoming too politicised. And when these institutions are vested with such strong power, then this can be open to abuse that diminishes democracy. With publicity about the SIS’s abuse of the law, hopefully there will be a greater awareness of the need for more scrutiny of these institutions and this latest incident will serve to create a chilling effect on their propensity to over-reach when dealing with intimidation of the media.

Unfortunately, politicians have so far been entirely silent on the Hager controversy. But there is a need for politicians of all persuasions to come out in condemnation of what has occurred. Regardless of what anyone might think of Hager’s work, reasonable people should be able to see that there is something rotten about the way that the police and the spies have acted in these cases against a journalist. We should all be uncomfortable that someone who is seeking to expose corruption and misuse of authority by the powerful gets treated in this way.

The good news, of course, is that the payout from the SIS will now fund Hager to continue producing his important public interest journalism.

Further reading on SIS unlawful activity and national security

Thomas Manch (Stuff): Nicky Hager receives $66,000 settlement from Security Intelligence Service over phone record spying
RNZ: NZSIS agrees to pay Nicky Hager $66,400 over phone records privacy breach
1News: Journalist Nicky Hager to get $66k settlement from spy agency
BusinessDesk: Nicky Hager gets $66,000 for spy agency’s unlawful activity
No Right Turn: The SIS: spying on the government’s political critics
Martyn Bradbury (Daily Blog): Latest SIS case against Hager a reminder to the woke the secret police are not your friend
Thomas Manch (Stuff): New Zealand’s terror threat level drops from ‘medium’ to ‘low’
Kurt Bayer (Herald): New Zealand’s national terror threat level drops for first time since 2019

Other items of interest and importance today

THREE WATERS
Peter Dunne: When sorry seems to be the hardest word
Thomas Coughlan (Herald): What’s at stake and what happens next in Three Waters constitutional spat (paywalled)
Oliver Hartwich (Herald): Three Waters bill, Covid fund allocation may be legal but not in spirit of democracy
Pattrick Smellie (BusinessDesk): Full steam ahead on Three Waters reforms: bill before Christmas (paywalled)
Thomas Cranmer: Questions remain over the appointment of Tuku Morgan

POLITICAL FINANCE, DONATIONS TRIALS
Toby Morris (Spinoff): It’s time we closed the political donation backdoor
George Block (Herald): National and Labour political donations trial: Chinese-NZ businessman, brothers sentenced to community work
Catrin Owen (Stuff): Businessmen given community detention for unlawful donations to National Party
Tim Murphy (Newsroom): National the winner as donations trio sentenced
Jonty Dine (RNZ): Three businessmen guilty of political donations deception avoid prison
Maria Slade (NBR): Political donations trio sentenced to community service (paywalled)

PARLIAMENT, VOTING AGE
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): National MPs campaigning for votes with Kiwis in Australia on parliamentary-funded travel
Sam Sachdeva (Newsoom): ‘Not achieved’: Civil society grades Hipkins on open government work
Henry Cooke: A defence of the gotcha question
Mike Hosking (Herald): Is the Government no longer trying? (paywalled)
Michael Neilson and Chris Knox (Herald): Poll shows what Kiwis think about lowering the voting age from 18 to 16 (paywalled)
Tom Hunt (Stuff): 16-year-olds will vote in 2025 local body elections, Wellington councillor and mayor reckon
Thomas Brocherie (Stuff): Even as a 14-year-old, it’s easy to tell my generation is worried
The Standard: What Is Labour’s Purpose This Term?

FOREIGN AFFAIRS; FINNISH PM MEETS ARDERN
Bridie Witton (Stuff): The not-so-subtle sexism that followed Finland’s Sanna Marin from Helsinki to Auckland
Lloyd Burr (Today FM): Why are some media organisations ok with such unashamed, casual sexism?
Anna Rawhiti-Connell (Spinoff): Ten things you can say about Finland’s prime minister that don’t use the word ‘party’
Glenn McConnell (Stuff): Finnish PM Sanna Marin wants to go ‘next level’ with New Zealand, as she rallies against autocrats
RNZ: Jacinda Ardern and Finland PM Sanna Marin hold media briefing
1News: Finland PM Marin meets Ardern – ‘Our countries are aligned’
Eva Corlett (Guardian): Jacinda Ardern and Sanna Marin dismiss suggestion their age and gender was reason for meeting
1News: Ardern pushes back at ‘similar age’ question in Finland PM conference
Jamie Ensor and Isobel Ewing (Newshub): Jacinda Ardern hits back at suggestion she met with Finnish leader Sanna Marin due to similar age
Don Rowe (Spinoff): A brief look at the harm Australia’s 501 policy has caused
Sarah Robson (RNZ): When New Zealanders get into trouble overseas

ECONOMY, COST OF LIVING
Peter Dunne (Newsroom): Reserve Bank just landed final blow to Labour’s election hopes
Gordon Campbell: On the gaslighting about inflation
Daniel Smith (Stuff): ‘We made our children poorer’: How a previous generation became rich and left their kids to foot the bill
Nona Pelletier (RNZ): Reserve Bank seeks public feedback as part of monetary policy review
Jenny Ruth (BusinessDesk): RBNZ wants housing removed from its remit (paywalled)
Dileepa Fonseka (Stuff): The hidden inflation trap of an ageing population
Chlöe Swarbrick (Herald): Let’s create a fairer fiscal system for all New Zealanders
David Hargreaves (Interest): ANZ chief economist says RBNZ ‘deserves kudos for not shirking their responsibilities’
Rob Stock (Stuff): Missed payments on home loans rise as household costs increase, Centrix says
Cameron Smith (Herald): Number of Kiwis missing personal and home loan repayments increasing (paywalled)
Gareth Vaughan (Interest): Consumer loan arrears on the rise
RNZ: Demand for personal and vehicle loans increasing sharply – Centrix
Ireland Hendry-Tennent (Newshub): New survey shows parents are cutting back spending, under considerable strain due to skyrocketing cost of living

EMPLOYMENT, BUSINESS
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): Fair Pay Agreements: Bargaining process begins after passing of controversial legislation
Jenée Tibshraeny (Herald): Fair Pay Agreements: Hospitality workers to make first application to start negotiations (paywalled)
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): Fair Pay Agreements: Bargaining process begins after passing of controversial legislation
Isaac Davison (Herald): Stuff strike: Reporters to walk off job, picket offices today
RNZ: National Party holds ground on raising superannuation age to 67
Trent Doyle (Newshub): Unionised Stuff journalists protest nationwide against latest pay offer
RNZ: Business confidence continues to drop – ANZ survey
David Hargreaves (Interest): ANZ: ‘The strain is showing for Kiwi businesses’
Mark Quinlivan (Newshub): Cost increases remain ‘relentless’ for New Zealand businesses, employment intentions negative for first time since 2020 – ANZ
Nicholas Pointon (NBR): Business sentiment plunges to ‘dire levels’ – ANZ (paywalled)
Fiona Rotherham (NBR): Why Sir John Key is joining the board of Kiwi company Oritain (paywalled)
Herald: Young New Zealanders want Māori language, tikanga and Te Tiriti principles honoured at work
RNZ: Foodstuffs stores to trial new facial recognition cameras
Susan Edmunds (Stuff): Goodbye, home phone line: Disputes scheme prepares for more complaints about copper withdrawal

PRIMARY INDUSTRIES
Brent Edwards (NBR): Government’s olive branch to farmers over sequestration
Richard Harman: Government makes concessions to farmers on methane (paywalled)
Keith Woodford (Interest): Moving forward on methane levies
Rebecca Howard (BusinesDesk): Government backs down on sequestration for emissions trading scheme (paywalled)
 Fieldays agenda (paywalled)
Karen Rutherford (Newshub): Jacinda Ardern heckled at Fieldays as Government unveils projects to cut emissions
Gerhard Uys (Stuff): Government will bring native forests into the emissions trading scheme
Riley Kennedy (BusinessDesk): Govt reveals plan to grow forestry (paywalled)
Guy Trafford (Interest): The source of the confusion
Tina Morrison (Stuff): Fonterra and farmers risk not being able to get debt funding from banks if they don’t meet sustainability expectations
Luke Malpass (Stuff): Bumper export earnings year predicted for primary industry against backdrop of inflation
Brent Edwards (NBR): Farmers might be pessimistic but export revenue still rising (paywalled)
RNZ: US court orders ban on New Zealand exports of several fish species
Alexa Cook (Newshub): New Zealand seafood industry says US import ban on fish caught in Māui dolphin habitat not needed

HOUSING
Susan Edmunds (Stuff): Falling house prices all bad news for Labour, Fitch says
RNZ: Falling house prices: Wellington leads with 15.9 percent drop in November – CoreLogic
Miriam Bell (Stuff): By the numbers: Here’s what the latest update tells us about NZ’s housing market downturn
Greg Ninness (Interest): Average value of NZ homes down $84,369 from March peak
Newshub: Property prices continue downward slide, Porirua values plunge 4.7 percent in a month
Anne Gibson (Herald): Six reasons why house prices could continue falling: ANZ revises 18% drop to 22%
Brent Melville (BusinessDesk): Home buyers paddle, as mortgage rates hit high water mark (paywalled)
Jonathan Killick (Stuff): No more nimbys? What new housing bill might mean for developers
BusinessDesk: Housing consents down 12%, as sector faces higher build costs (paywalled)
Greg Ninness (Interest): Big drop in the number of new homes consented in October
Benn Bathgate (Stuff): Businesses’ call for ‘immediate resolution’ to Rotorua’s MSD motels issue
Robin Martin (RNZ): Homeowners turn to motorhomes to avoid unruly Kāinga Ora tenants

HEALTH
Adam Burns (RNZ): Parents refusing vaccinated donor blood for baby should consider decisions carefully – Little
William Hewett (Newshub): Christopher Luxon won’t commit to Māori health outcome target
RNZ: Primary mental health care programme misses target by thousands
Hannah Martin (Stuff): Health system ‘desperately’ needing doctors won’t let new grads start til 2023 – union
Chris Lynch: “The environment we work in is killing us” ED nurse writes powerful letter to Andrew Little
Tom Taylor (RNZ): Urgent care clinics under strain
Herald Editorial: GP nurses pay parity puzzling (paywalled)
1News: Amount low-income Kiwis can claim for dental treatment increases
Helen Harvey (Taranaki Daily News): Petition to drop age of bowel cancer screening delivered to Green MP Dr Elizabeth Kerekere at Parliament
Greg Hurrell (BusinessDesk): Objectors to supermarket pharmacies ‘disgruntled competitors’, high court told
Georgina Campbell (Herald): More women come forward with ‘nightmare’ birth experiences

COVID-19
Brent Edwards (NBR): Health response to pandemic no longer a political issue (paywalled)
Jamie Morton (Herald): Covid 19: Will NZ’s wave peak before summer holidays?
RNZ: Covid-19: End-of-year function season likely to be risky with cases on the rise

LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Herald: Wellington council spending millions on half-empty office space (paywalled)
Stephen Forbes (Local Democracy Reporting): Auckland Council’s cost-saving committee cancels first meeting as it has nothing to discuss
Rachael Kelly (Stuff): Gore council to meet behind closed doors on Thursday to discuss mayor’s $300k governance structure
RNZ: Newly elected Kaipara mayor Craig Jepson shuts down councillor’s karakia request

CRIME, POLICE, JUSTICE
1News: Reinstating three strikes law won’t curb offending – law expert
Liz McDonald and Olivia Caldwell (Press): Gang fight at Christchurch Town Hall cited as businesses call for action on crime
RNZ: Canterbury businesses ‘menaced’ by smash and grabs and antisocial behaviour
Emma Hatton (Newsroom): Tactical response model puts pressure on police staffing
Andrew Lensen and Marcin Betkier (The Conversation): We built an algorithm that predicts the length of court sentences – could AI play a role in the justice system?
Ashley Jones (Spinoff): My marriage is finally over. My fight against New Zealand’s archaic divorce law goes on

ENERGY
Craig Ashworth (Local Democracy Reporting): Hapū and Greenpeace back to court for stricter hydrogen rules
Ian Llewellyn (BusinessDesk): Exporting hydrogen will force policy and economic decisions

TRANSPORT
Richard Harman (Politik): Brown backs heavy rail (paywalled)
Nikki Mandow (Newsroom): Auckland’s free EV chargers won’t be free much longer

EDUCATION
Kristie Boland (Stuff): Sex and relationships education in NZ schools not good enough, new research shows
Niva Chittock (RNZ): Little priority given to sex education in schools, teachers say

OTHER
Guyon Espiner (RNZ): Wasted
Guyon Espiner (RNZ): How a US President set NZ’s drug laws
Jem Traylen (BusinessDesk): Does cronyism exist in our public service?
Dana Johannsen (Stuff): Public Services Commission opposes Sport NZ’s involvement with sport integrity agency
Nona Pelletier (RNZ): Significant migration to New Zealand expected in early 2023 – Kiwibank
Ankur Sabharwal (Stuff): The $57 million IT disaster at Immigration NZ
Morgan Godfery (Stuff): In Whakatāne, another Ihumātao is in the making
Melanie Carroll (Stuff): More migrants good for businesses but a headache for Reserve Bank: Kiwibank
Luke Kirkness (Rotorua Daily Post): Rainwater tanks should be mandatory on all new builds in New Zealand (paywalled)
RNZ: Treaty settlement agreement will address housing, energy issues on Chatham Islands, iwi says
Tom Kitchin (RNZ): Questions remain over mysterious Te Urewera hut fire
RNZ: Means-testing NZ Super payments one way to address scheme’s rising cost

Political Roundup: Are we spending too little – or too much – on the military?

New Zealand has once again been ranked the second-most peaceful nation in the world. When it comes to the Asia-Pacific region and the Southern Hemisphere, New Zealand is at the top of the peace rankings. This is according to the Institute for Economics and Peace, which recently released its annual Global Peace Index.

Iceland beat us for the top spot once again. In contrast, Australia came in at number 27, the UK 34, France 65, and the United States at 129. Afghanistan is at the bottom with a rank of 163.

In recent years the institute has downgraded New Zealand’s peacefulness due to the Government’s increased military spending. And that looks set to occur again, with some strong signs that defence is about to receive a big boost from the Labour Government.

There are considerable pressures on New Zealand to lift its spending. Partly this is due to global conflicts and tensions heating up in general, but it particularly relates to the Asia-Pacific region, where conflict between the US-led West and China is ramping up. And with New Zealand recently shifting more into line with the US-led security alliances, there is pressure from allies to “play our part” and “pull our weight”. This translates to greater spending on weaponry and the military in general.

With the focus on the Pacific at the moment, and especially with the Pacific Islands Forum occurring this week, we might soon expect to see a greater New Zealand military presence and activity announced for the region.

For example, last week Defence Minister Peeni Henare said that investment in military hardware had to continue: “What I know is New Zealanders are concerned for our security in these particular times. We’ve already seen what’s happening in the Pacific, so we’re hugely in support of these exercises and will continue to support them and so will this government”.

Labour has already increased military spending massively

Labour has come under attack from opponents for not spending enough on defence. For example, in April the Act Party called for spending to be increased by $7.5bn over four years, and challenged the Government to commit itself to spending a full 2 per cent of GDP on defence. At the time the National Party also said it was in favour of much higher spending.

However, the Labour Government can rightfully claim to have already dramatically increased New Zealand’s spending on defence, and has already committed to spending an additional $20bn over the next decade.

As a percentage of GDP – which is the favoured method of international comparison – Labour has increased spending on the military from 1.15 per cent to 1.59, which is an incredibly steep rise. The Defence Minister in the last parliamentary term, Ron Mark, claimed it was the “biggest increase in spending in 60 years”. And it’s projected to go much higher, with more spending commitments on the horizon.

In contrast, the last National Government spent much less. At its lowest point, National was only spending 1.11 per cent of GDP in 2011.

The current spend on Defence is about $2.5 billion a year. And in the latest Budget in May, the Defence vote gained a $525 million boost in operational spending over the next five years.

In the last year, Labour has reconfirmed that the massive increases in defence spending agreed to during the last term of government are largely to be retained. This has surprised some who expected that with New Zealand First gone from government, Labour would be less gung-ho on defence.

The new Defence Minister has stated that although some changes are being made to the details and timing of planned expenditure, it was going to be largely business as usual under the new Labour administration.

However, there are obviously going to be some changes made to the spending on military hardware, and the budgets are likely to be increased. With New Zealand moving closer in its partnership with NATO, and generally becoming more integrated with US-led security alliances, there is an expectation that these relationships will produce pressure on the Government here to lift its military spending.

NATO has an official target for its member countries to spend a full 2 per cent of their GDP on defence. When Ardern has been asked about whether she would agree to any request from NATO that New Zealand also adopts this spend, she’s been non-committal on whether she would accept or reject that.

The Government has, however, announced last week that it has asked the Defence Force to produce a new defence policy and strategy statement, to be delivered in October. This can be seen as a necessary exercise in order for the Government to be able to justify additional spending on military hardware. In announcing the review, Henare has cited the “intensifying great power competition” in the world today, but also given some more liberal justifications around the need for the military to play an increased role in terms of climate change and natural disasters.

There has also been a recent focus on the air force’s 757 aircraft, which is often used for flying VIPs and politicians around, especially internationally. The ageing state of these planes is being used by a number of commentators as an argument for why the Government needs to lift military spending.

Although New Zealand prime ministers and other government figures could use commercial flights, the age and condition of the 757s have become a symbol that New Zealand may not have a credible military. For example, political journalist Richard Harman argued last week that the state of the 757s and other infrastructure “raises real questions about the credibility of New Zealand’s claim to have a viable Defence presence in the Pacific in the event of any conflict.”

Is Labour’s military spend-up enough?

In a normal year, New Zealand now spends about $2.5bn on the military. This is the Government’s fourth-biggest spending area – behind health, transport and education.

And some commentators have calculated that to bring New Zealand up to the international benchmark of spending 2 per cent of GDP would mean adding another billion dollars.

A rapidly escalating militarisation of the Pacific – especially with the recent announcement of AUKUS, in which nuclear submarines will be built by the UK and US for Australia – means that there will be greater pressure for New Zealand to also buy more aircraft and naval vessels.

The increased presence of China in the region also gives greater justification for a spend-up. And it’s making a number of liberal voices increasingly pro-military spending. For example, Bernard Hickey writes this week: “In my view, a truly independent foreign policy needs some high and low flying steel to back it up, particularly when it comes to policing our enormous maritime zone and offering protection to our partners in the Pacific. China’s fishing fleet comes to mind.”

What’s more, New Zealand is now undertaking many more international military training exercises with other countries. And working with the US military is now finally a more possible occurrence. Therefore, if New Zealand is going to have interoperability with its allies, then it stands to reason that similar planes and aircraft are going to have to be purchased.

Is Labour’s military spend-up too much?

The Labour Government has been selling its economic approach as one focused on “wellbeing”. But it’s hard to see how its dramatic increase in spending on war-making infrastructure fits into such a principle. And money spent on defence is at the expense of housing, welfare, education, climate change initiatives and so forth. As some critics have suggested, more spending by Labour would be a case of prioritising “tanks over teachers”.

It also should be pointed out that even though NATO pushes a 2 per cent of GDP target for its members, not all countries actually achieve this. Herald journalist Thomas Coughlan has pointed out that “Canada spends 1.42 per cent of its GDP on defence, the Netherlands and Denmark spend 1.44 per cent and Sweden, which is not in Nato, spends 1.22 per cent.”

Jacinda Ardern has recently made much of the changing international security dynamic. In many respects, her speeches portend a much greater defence budget for the future. And yet she has also given speeches arguing for less militarisation, and calling “disarmament” and “diplomacy” instead.

Regardless, it is clear that as New Zealand becomes more closely aligned with increasingly active US-led military alliances, it seems that New Zealand is going to have to pay the price of membership to those clubs.

There is not a lot of public debate on these massive expenditures. But there should be. After all, the signs are that taxpayers are about to fork out much more for war.

Further reading on Defence

Thomas Manch (Stuff): Government to review defence policy amid Covid-19, geopolitical competition, climate change
Giles Dexter (RNZ): Govt aiming to settle ‘big questions’ with defence policy review – expert
Mohammad Alafeshat (RNZ): Navy frigate returns to New Zealand after major upgrade in Canada
1News: Call for fault-prone Air Force 757s to be replaced earlier
1News: Kiwis among world’s largest naval exercise in Hawaii

Other items of interest and importance today

HEALTH
Rachel Smalley (Today FM): Labour is allergic to our health system
Ian Powell: Health system now “beyond a crisis”
John MacDonald (Herald): Yes Minister, there is a health crisis
Matthew Hooton (Herald): Health NZ reform – why it could mean hospital closures (paywalled)
RNZ: Andrew Little: Govt responding to ‘chronic staffing shortage’ in healthcare
Dewi Preece (1News): ‘How many people have to die?’ – Paramedics at breaking point
Oliver Lewis (BusinessDesk): Charity hospitals, philanthropists covering health system gaps
Peter Dunne (Newsroom): Time is not on the Government’s side with health reforms
Rachel Moore (Stuff): Pharmacies under pressure, picking up overflow from booked out GPs
RNZ: New director of public health appointed
Tracy Watkins (Stuff): A lottery of death: Why are so many people dying without first-world care?
Cate Macintosh (Stuff): Surgical waiting list soars as patients languishing in pain say they feel like the ‘living dead’
Geoff Cunningham (Stuff): Health reforms are missing the problems at the coalface
Bryan Betty (Stuff): We’ll all suffer if pressures on GPs aren’t addressed
Rachel Smalley (NBR): Counting the human cost of terrible health system leadership (paywalled)
Kate Hawkesby (Newstalk): I’d have thought, at this time of year we’d be doing more to help the health system
Otago Daily Times: Southern hospitals struggling to treat patients at full capacity
Hannah Martin (Stuff): Long waits for frail Kiwis to access aged care will ‘collapse the health system’
Steven Cowan: Dark side of the moon
Lloyd Burr (Today FM): It’s time adult dental care was subsidised by the Government
1News: Midwifery sector in ‘crisis’ – Wellington community midwife
Nikki Macdonald (Stuff): Shame, suffering and strawberry sundaes – the underfunded, invisible ‘mess’ of palliative care
Waatea News: Bureaucracy kept in check at Māori Health Authority
Stephen Forbes (Local Democracy Reporting): Pharmac ‘procrastinating’ over funding glucose monitors, Diabetes NZ says
Waatea News: Culture lessons in way of Māori health change
Ben Gray (Stuff): Medsafe’s accountability to us is a reason we trust it over the FDA
Simon Wallace (Stuff): After years of neglect, aged care sector is under threat

COVID
Keith Lynch (Stuff): Why the government is doing (almost) nothing about Covid
Trenton Doyle (Herald): Fresh surge in cases has experts urging public to embrace masks, social distancing
Morgan Godfery (Guardian): New Zealand stands on the brink of the Covid precipice. Why aren’t we moving to red?
ODT: Editorial – Not the time for being over Covid
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): Greens call for return of ‘clarity’ to Government’s ‘muddled’ messaging as cases spike, stop short of calling for ‘red’
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): Christopher Luxon calls for clarity over Covid rules as cases jump higher
Herald: National’s Christopher Luxon calls for simple mask rules in Orange revamp, wants traffic lights scrapped
Verity Johnson (Stuff): As second Omicron wave hits, many appear indifferent to health advice
Rachel Maher (Herald): Covid 19 Omicron outbreak: ‘We have become too complacent’, expert warns as hospitalisations spike
RNZ: Rest of the world has moved on from Covid-19, Christoper Luxon says
Herald: Editorial: Covid 19 Omicron subvariants challenge immunity (paywalled)
Hannah Martin (Stuff): Covid minister warns of ‘tough few weeks’ ahead, as experts call for urgent reset
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s ‘simple request’ to Kiwis as cases surge, addresses concerns over ‘red’
RNZ: Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says New Zealand’s Covid settings reviewed constantly
Grant Bradley (Herald): Covid-19 on the job: Warning to bosses over sick staff (paywalled)
Jamie Morton (Herald): Why this wave will cause more to go to hospital and more deaths
Marc Daalder (Newsroom): Ministry urged to update mask and isolation advice
Rowan Quinn (RNZ): New variants play a part as thousands contract Covid-19 twice
Toby Manhire (Spinoff): Officially, just 1% have caught Covid twice. Why that’s an undercount – and set to surge
Herald: Editorial: School holidays a much-needed Omicron circuit-breaker (paywalled)
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern maintains current Covid restrictions have ‘greatest impact’, no advice red would make ‘marked difference’
Kirsty Johnston (Stuff): The Māori health providers battling mistrust over childhood vaccines
Gary Payinda (Herald): ‘Frightening’ vaccination rates in NZ children will lead to preventable deaths (paywalled)
1News: Whānau Ora chair: We can’t rely on Govt for Covid solutions

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: PACIFIC AND CHINA
Katharine Murphy (Guardian): Going its own way in a messy world, New Zealand offers an alternate parable on China
Michael Neilson (Herald): Jacinda Ardern announces climate funding for Fiji
Anneke Smith (RNZ): Kiribati’s exit from Pacific Forum not a sign of wider disunity – Jacinda Ardern
Sam Sachdeva (Newsroom): Ardern won’t speculate on Kiribati withdrawal from PIF
Shane Jones (Herald): Pacific Island Forum – PM Jacinda Ardern needs to put something in kava bowl (paywalled)
Tom Peters (World socialist website): New Zealand PM attempts to cover up alignment with US against China
William Hewett (Newshub): New Zealand’s long-standing relationship, cultural ties with the Pacific strong enough to fend off China, says Associate Foreign Minister Aupito William Sio
1News: Ardern attending Pacific Islands Forum in region’s ‘crucial time’
Dileepa Fonseka (Stuff): A warning about China, the ‘fragile superpower’
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): Chinese state media react to Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s major foreign policy speech
Christine Rovoi (Stuff): Ardern targets Pacific priorities on eve of leaders’ summit
Barbara Dreaver (1News): Pacific Islands Forum crisis as Kiribati withdraws
Dita De Boni (NBR): NZ should diversify its exports sooner: China expert (paywalled)

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: GENERAL
Don Brash: In defence of an independent foreign policy
Jon Johansson (Stuff): The uncomfortable truths about America, and our newest Free Trade Agreement
John Roughan (Herald): Independence is limited when you need help (paywalled)
Jack Tame (Herald): Three leaders, three countries, one big week in politics
Paul Buchanan: Countering coercive politics
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern reacts to Boris Johnson’s resignation

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: AUSTRALIA
Jane Patterson (RNZ): Stars align as hollow words for New Zealanders in Australia shift to concrete action
Jenée Tibshraeny (Herald): Jacinda Ardern in Australia: Bilateral kicks off with banter over Flying Nun Records and Midnight Oil
Cathy Odgers: New Zealand about to be “Each Way” Albo’d
Tess McClure and Paul Karp (Guardian): Anthony Albanese offers New Zealanders fresh approach on voting rights in Australia and deportation policy
Richard Harman: There are still clouds over the Tasman (paywalled)
Kethaki Masilamani (Newshub): Australia’s review of temporary residency rules is welcome news to New Zealanders across Tasman
Luke Malpass (Stuff): Ardern scores big win from Albanese in Australia trip
Jenee Tibshraeny (Herald): Ardern, Albanese on 501s, citizenship – is ‘reset’ bearing fruit? (paywalled)
Andrew Macfarlane (1News): Ardern scores a win in 501 discussions with Albanese
Jenée Tibshraeny and Michael Neilson (Herald): Jacinda Ardern in Australia: Anthony Albanese on 501s – Countries to show ‘common sense’ and work ‘as friends’
RNZ: Rights of New Zealanders living in Australia to be reviewed – Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese
Richard Harman: Ardern avoids Aussie questions (paywalled)

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: EUROPE
Sharon Brettkelly (Newsroom): Getting the EU trade deal across the line
Gordon Campbell: On the trade deal with the Europeans

LABOUR SHORTAGES AND MIGRATION
Tina Morrison (Stuff): ‘Every sector is screaming out for more workers’
Paul Spoonley (Stuff): There’s a labour shortage, but where will we get our workers from?
Michael Wood (Herald): What the Government is doing about the labour shortage
Susan Edmunds (Stuff): New Zealand lost 11,000 people in a year, Stats NZ says
Heather du Plessis-Allan (Herald): Govt’s immigration reset is keeping NZ poor (paywalled)
Fran O’Sullivan (Herald): On a quest for the missing element – workers (paywalled)
RNZ: Aged care sector: Provider pleads for change to immigration setting for nurses
Bernard Hickey (Interest): The unintended consequences of treating kiwis fairer in Australia
Brianna Mcilraith (Stuff): Cost of living and salaries drive more workers to eye move offshore
Paula Bennett (Herald): Jacinda Ardern needs solutions for hospitality and tourism not catchy slogans (paywalled)
Phil Pennington (RNZ): Nursing solution to health worker shortage shot down by government
Ireland Hendry-Tennent (Newshub): PM Jacinda Ardern suggests migrant nurses put off by needing to stay in role for two years ‘perhaps don’t want to be a nurse in NZ’
Niva Chittock (RNZ): Businesses under pressure as school holidays influx hits amid staffing pressures
Colin Peacock (RNZ): Hospo’s acute recruitment hassles hit headlines again
Nicholas Boyack (Stuff): Few takers for a job with a starting salary of $51,633
Herald: Editorial: Staffing crisis has nuances – but need for action is real (paywalled)
William Hewett (Newshub): Labour shortage: Greens co-leader Marama Davidson call for better pay and conditions for critical workers, residency pathways for low-wage migrants
Mike Hosking (Newstalk): Low wages won’t solve our labour crisis
Martyn Bradbury (Daily Blog): Why allowing bosses more migrant labour could start unemployment explosion in NZ
Maria Slade (NBR): Uni cancels training course in face of ‘chronic’ worker shortage

A View from Afar – In this podcast, political scientist Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning discuss how numerous countries have committed aid, intelligence expertise, military hardware and weapons to a multilateral effort in support of Ukraine.

What does this 2022-style of military diplomacy mean for the independent foreign policies of countries like New Zealand – with its style of incremental contributions in aid of the defence of Ukraine?

For example, the New Zealand Government this week confirmed the deployment of a C-130 Hercules with 50 personnel to Europe; a further eight logistics specialists based in Germany; $13 million in further support to procure equipment for the Ukraine military.

On announcing the move, New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said: “Our support is to assist the Ukraine Army to repel a brutal Russian invasion because peace in the region of Europe is essential for global stability.”

Ardern added: “The global response has seen an unprecedented amount of military support pledged for Ukraine, and more help to transport and distribute it is urgently needed, and so we will do our bit to help.” (ref. ForeignAffairs.co.nz, https://foreignaffairs.co.nz/2022/04/11/mil-osi-new-zealand-new-zealand-sends-c130-hercules-and-50-strong-team-to-europe-to-support-ukraine/ )

So today, we examine how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with its method of total annihilation, has drawn once relatively independent nations into the fold of western security alliances. And we will consider whether such moves will become a permanent configuration?

Also in this episode, we will discuss the South-West Pacific strategic balance. Specifically, why has the People’s Republic of China, and the Solomon Islands bilateral security agreement, upset Australia, New Zealand, and the United States of America?

You can comment on this debate by clicking on one of these social media channels and interacting in the social media’s comment area. Here are the links:

• Facebook.com/selwyn.manning
• Youtube
• Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning

If you miss the LIVE Episode, you can see it as video-on-demand, and earlier episodes too, by checking out EveningReport.nz or, subscribe to the Evening Report podcast here.

The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top  Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication.

Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category. You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

A View from Afar – In this podcast, political scientist Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning will discuss how numerous countries have committed aid, intelligence expertise, military hardware and weapons to a multilateral effort in support of Ukraine.

What does this 2022-style of military diplomacy mean for the independent foreign policies of countries like New Zealand – with its style of incremental contributions in aid of the defence of Ukraine?

For example, the New Zealand Government this week confirmed the deployment of a C-130 Hercules with 50 personnel to Europe; a further eight logistics specialists based in Germany; $13 million in further support to procure equipment for the Ukraine military.

On announcing the move, New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said: “Our support is to assist the Ukraine Army to repel a brutal Russian invasion because peace in the region of Europe is essential for global stability.”

Ardern added: “The global response has seen an unprecedented amount of military support pledged for Ukraine, and more help to transport and distribute it is urgently needed, and so we will do our bit to help.” (ref. ForeignAffairs.co.nz, https://foreignaffairs.co.nz/2022/04/11/mil-osi-new-zealand-new-zealand-sends-c130-hercules-and-50-strong-team-to-europe-to-support-ukraine/ )

So today, we will examine how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with its method of total annihilation, has drawn once relatively independent nations into the fold of western security alliances. And we will consider whether such moves will become a permanent configuration?

Also in this episode, we will discuss the South-West Pacific strategic balance. Specifically, why has the People’s Republic of China, and the Solomon Islands bilateral security agreement, upset Australia, New Zealand, and the United States of America?

Join Paul and Selwyn for this LIVE recording of this podcast while they consider these big issues, and remember any comments you make while live can be included in this programme.

You can comment on this debate by clicking on one of these social media channels and interacting in the social media’s comment area. Here are the links:

• Facebook.com/selwyn.manning
• Youtube
• Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning

If you miss the LIVE Episode, you can see it as video-on-demand, and earlier episodes too, by checking out EveningReport.nz or, subscribe to the Evening Report podcast here.

The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top  Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication.

Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category. You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

A View from Afar – In this podcast, political scientist Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning analyse how New Zealand and other nations are providing intelligence expertise in the defence of Ukraine.

But are the SIGINT and TECHINT operations a part of the NATO partnership, or, a part of the Five Eyes intelligence network’s operations – where the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand share resources to acquire and coordinate global and targeted intelligence.

Does confirmation from New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern that New Zealand has deployed seven Defence intelligence officers to the United Kingdom and Belgium underscore a direct involvement against Russia and in defence of Ukraine by other independent nations like New Zealand?

• What will the intelligence, including geo-spacial analysis, most likely be used for and how would it be derived and delivered?
• How has western intelligence assisted Ukraine in this war and also in the targeting of Russian generals who were identified and killed during hostilities in Ukraine (ref. Washington Post)?
• How significant has Open Source Intelligence been in the Russia Ukraine war (to date) including the use of citizen acquired video and data and its dissemination to offensive and defensive operations in the conflict?
• And why is SIGINT and TECHINT proving to be more important than ever in this specific conflict?

You can comment on this debate by clicking on one of these social media channels and interacting in the social media’s comment area. Here are the links:

• Facebook.com/selwyn.manning
• Youtube
• Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning

If you miss the LIVE Episode, you can see it as video-on-demand, and earlier episodes too, by checking out EveningReport.nz or, subscribe to the Evening Report podcast here.

The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top  Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication.

Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category. You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

A View from Afar – In this podcast, political scientist Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning analyse how New Zealand and other nations are providing intelligence expertise in the defence of Ukraine.

But are the SIGINT and TECHINT operations a part of the NATO partnership, or, a part of the Five Eyes intelligence network’s operations – where the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand share resources to acquire and coordinate global and targeted intelligence.

Does confirmation from New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern that New Zealand has deployed seven Defence intelligence officers to the United Kingdom and Belgium underscore a direct involvement against Russia and in defence of Ukraine by other independent nations like New Zealand?

• What will the intelligence, including geo-spacial analysis, most likely be used for and how would it be derived and delivered?
• How has western intelligence assisted Ukraine in this war and also in the targeting of Russian generals who were identified and killed during hostilities in Ukraine (ref. Washington Post)?
• How significant has Open Source Intelligence been in the Russia Ukraine war (to date) including the use of citizen acquired video and data and its dissemination to offensive and defensive operations in the conflict?
• And why is SIGINT and TECHINT proving to be more important than ever in this specific conflict?

Join Paul and Selwyn for this LIVE recording of this podcast while they consider these big issues, and remember any comments you make while live can be included in this programme.

You can comment on this debate by clicking on one of these social media channels and interacting in the social media’s comment area. Here are the links:

• Facebook.com/selwyn.manning
• Youtube
• Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning

If you miss the LIVE Episode, you can see it as video-on-demand, and earlier episodes too, by checking out EveningReport.nz or, subscribe to the Evening Report podcast here.

The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top  Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication.

Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category. You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

A View from Afar: Selwyn Manning and Paul Buchanan present this week’s podcast, A View from Afar, where they analyse New Zealand’s national security strategy.

There has been no defence white paper since the John Key National-led governments and no comprehensive review of New Zealand’s strategic priorities, nor assessment of the region’s threat landscape both internal and external.

Now, with hybrid threats like cyberwarfare and terrorism adopting an “intermestic” (international and domestic) characteristic due to on-line recruitment and radicalisation, the perceived need is to develop a holistic national security strategy that addresses defence, security and intelligence needs of the 2020 decade.

But what does this all mean for New Zealand’s defence forces, intelligence community, and cyber-defence agencies?

ALSO: World Watch – The latest/recent round of elections in places like Peru, Mexico and Israel can be viewed as referendums on neoliberalism and national populism.

For example: You can see how Israel prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has adopted Donald Trump-like rhetoric to describe his opponents.

A similar style has been used by the right wing in Peru as well as in Brazil.

The Peru election pits a socialist native Indian against Peru’s former dictator Fujimori’s daughter. She is a neoliberal conservative.

Both national populism and various socialist approaches have something in common: both ideologies reject neoliberal economic theory in principle and in fact.

With the left most likely to win the elections in Peru, and considering the challenges that Peru faces (including a pandemic where Covid-19 has raged through its communities positioning Peru as having suffered the highest recorded death rates in the world) the question begs, has neoliberalism run its course?

WE INVITE YOU TO PARTICIPATE WHILE WE ARE LIVE WITH COMMENTS AND QUESTIONS IN THE RECORDING OF THIS PODCAST:

You can comment on this debate by clicking on one of these social media channels and interacting in the social media’s comment area. Here are the links:

• Facebook.com/selwyn.manning
• Youtube
• Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning

If you miss the LIVE Episode, you can see it as video-on-demand, and earlier episodes too, by checking out EveningReport.nz or, subscribe to the Evening Report podcast here.

The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top  Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication.

Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category. You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

A View from Afar: Selwyn Manning and Paul Buchanan present this week’s podcast, A View from Afar, where they will analyse New Zealand’s national security strategy.

There has been no defence white paper since the John Key National-led governments and no comprehensive review of New Zealand’s strategic priorities, nor assessment of the region’s threat landscape both internal and external.

Now, with hybrid threats like cyberwarfare and terrorism adopting an “intermestic” (international and domestic) characteristic due to on-line recruitment and radicalisation, the perceived need is to develop a holistic national security strategy that addresses defence, security and intelligence needs of the 2020 decade.

But what does this all mean for New Zealand’s defence forces, intelligence community, and cyber-defence agencies?

ALSO: World Watch – The latest/recent round of elections in places like Peru, Mexico and Israel can be viewed as referendums on neoliberalism and national populism.

For example: You can see how Israel prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has adopted Donald Trump-like rhetoric to describe his opponents.

A similar style has been used by the right wing in Peru as well as in Brazil.

The Peru election pits a socialist native Indian against Peru’s former dictator Fujimori’s daughter. She is a neoliberal conservative.

Both national populism and various socialist approaches have something in common: both ideologies reject neoliberal economic theory in principle and in fact.

With the left most likely to win the elections in Peru, and considering the challenges that Peru faces (including a pandemic where Covid-19 has raged through its communities positioning Peru as having suffered the highest recorded death rates in the world) the question begs, has neoliberalism run its course?

WE INVITE YOU TO PARTICIPATE WHILE WE ARE LIVE WITH COMMENTS AND QUESTIONS IN THE RECORDING OF THIS PODCAST:

You can comment on this debate by clicking on one of these social media channels and interacting in the social media’s comment area. Here are the links:

• Facebook.com/selwyn.manning
• Youtube
• Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning

If you miss the LIVE Episode, you can see it as video-on-demand, and earlier episodes too, by checking out EveningReport.nz or, subscribe to the Evening Report podcast here.

The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top  Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication.

Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category. You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

A View from Afar: Selwyn Manning and Paul Buchanan present this week’s podcast, where they analyse the Australia-China-New Zealand relationship. Has this reached a tipping-point? Also, Israel. How stable will this cobbled together coalition of anti-Netanyahu parties be?

But first, Australia, China, and New Zealand:

• What are the main take-away points from the New Zealand-Australia leaders bilateral meeting this week?
• AU PM Scott Morrison referenced ANZUS while NZ PM Jacinda Ardern spoke of NZ’s defence requirements as an independent consideration.
• So who is correct here? Does Australia and New Zealand’s re-stated commitment to being a Trans-Tasman family drag NZ into supporting any future Australian conflict?

And then there’s China’s foreign ministry response, that states: “The leaders of Australia and New Zealand, with irresponsible remarks on China’s internal affairs relating to Hong Kong and Xinjiang as well as the South China Sea issue, have made groundless accusations against China…”

• Does AU and NZ governments’ renewed sense of self-identity indicate a rebalancing of a regional and global order? And has the PRC’s dominating influence in AU and NZ politics reached its zenith?
• And does the PRC’s increased authoritarianism at home and abroad reflect leadership weaknesses rather than strength?

*** Israel.

In the last quarter of this episode, Buchanan and Manning will discuss the latest from the Middle East.

• Will a cobbled-together coalition of anti-Netanyahu politicians succeed in creating a new Israel Government? How stable will it be, and, what does this mean for Palestinians in the West Bank of Gaza?

WE INVITE YOU TO PARTICIPATE WHILE WE ARE LIVE WITH COMMENTS AND QUESTIONS IN THE RECORDING OF THIS PODCAST:

You can comment on this debate by clicking on one of these social media channels and interacting in the social media’s comment area. Here are the links:

• Facebook.com/selwyn.manning
• Youtube
• Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning

If you miss the LIVE Episode, you can see it as video-on-demand, and earlier episodes too, by checking out EveningReport.nz or, subscribe to the Evening Report podcast here.

The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top  Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication.

Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category. You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.