Analysis by Dr Bryce Edwards.
Political Roundup: Are we spending too little – or too much – on the military?
New Zealand has once again been ranked the second-most peaceful nation in the world. When it comes to the Asia-Pacific region and the Southern Hemisphere, New Zealand is at the top of the peace rankings. This is according to the Institute for Economics and Peace, which recently released its annual Global Peace Index.
Iceland beat us for the top spot once again. In contrast, Australia came in at number 27, the UK 34, France 65, and the United States at 129. Afghanistan is at the bottom with a rank of 163.
In recent years the institute has downgraded New Zealand’s peacefulness due to the Government’s increased military spending. And that looks set to occur again, with some strong signs that defence is about to receive a big boost from the Labour Government.
There are considerable pressures on New Zealand to lift its spending. Partly this is due to global conflicts and tensions heating up in general, but it particularly relates to the Asia-Pacific region, where conflict between the US-led West and China is ramping up. And with New Zealand recently shifting more into line with the US-led security alliances, there is pressure from allies to “play our part” and “pull our weight”. This translates to greater spending on weaponry and the military in general.
With the focus on the Pacific at the moment, and especially with the Pacific Islands Forum occurring this week, we might soon expect to see a greater New Zealand military presence and activity announced for the region.
For example, last week Defence Minister Peeni Henare said that investment in military hardware had to continue: “What I know is New Zealanders are concerned for our security in these particular times. We’ve already seen what’s happening in the Pacific, so we’re hugely in support of these exercises and will continue to support them and so will this government”.
Labour has already increased military spending massively
Labour has come under attack from opponents for not spending enough on defence. For example, in April the Act Party called for spending to be increased by $7.5bn over four years, and challenged the Government to commit itself to spending a full 2 per cent of GDP on defence. At the time the National Party also said it was in favour of much higher spending.
However, the Labour Government can rightfully claim to have already dramatically increased New Zealand’s spending on defence, and has already committed to spending an additional $20bn over the next decade.
As a percentage of GDP – which is the favoured method of international comparison – Labour has increased spending on the military from 1.15 per cent to 1.59, which is an incredibly steep rise. The Defence Minister in the last parliamentary term, Ron Mark, claimed it was the “biggest increase in spending in 60 years”. And it’s projected to go much higher, with more spending commitments on the horizon.
In contrast, the last National Government spent much less. At its lowest point, National was only spending 1.11 per cent of GDP in 2011.
The current spend on Defence is about $2.5 billion a year. And in the latest Budget in May, the Defence vote gained a $525 million boost in operational spending over the next five years.
In the last year, Labour has reconfirmed that the massive increases in defence spending agreed to during the last term of government are largely to be retained. This has surprised some who expected that with New Zealand First gone from government, Labour would be less gung-ho on defence.
The new Defence Minister has stated that although some changes are being made to the details and timing of planned expenditure, it was going to be largely business as usual under the new Labour administration.
However, there are obviously going to be some changes made to the spending on military hardware, and the budgets are likely to be increased. With New Zealand moving closer in its partnership with NATO, and generally becoming more integrated with US-led security alliances, there is an expectation that these relationships will produce pressure on the Government here to lift its military spending.
NATO has an official target for its member countries to spend a full 2 per cent of their GDP on defence. When Ardern has been asked about whether she would agree to any request from NATO that New Zealand also adopts this spend, she’s been non-committal on whether she would accept or reject that.
The Government has, however, announced last week that it has asked the Defence Force to produce a new defence policy and strategy statement, to be delivered in October. This can be seen as a necessary exercise in order for the Government to be able to justify additional spending on military hardware. In announcing the review, Henare has cited the “intensifying great power competition” in the world today, but also given some more liberal justifications around the need for the military to play an increased role in terms of climate change and natural disasters.
There has also been a recent focus on the air force’s 757 aircraft, which is often used for flying VIPs and politicians around, especially internationally. The ageing state of these planes is being used by a number of commentators as an argument for why the Government needs to lift military spending.
Although New Zealand prime ministers and other government figures could use commercial flights, the age and condition of the 757s have become a symbol that New Zealand may not have a credible military. For example, political journalist Richard Harman argued last week that the state of the 757s and other infrastructure “raises real questions about the credibility of New Zealand’s claim to have a viable Defence presence in the Pacific in the event of any conflict.”
Is Labour’s military spend-up enough?
In a normal year, New Zealand now spends about $2.5bn on the military. This is the Government’s fourth-biggest spending area – behind health, transport and education.
And some commentators have calculated that to bring New Zealand up to the international benchmark of spending 2 per cent of GDP would mean adding another billion dollars.
A rapidly escalating militarisation of the Pacific – especially with the recent announcement of AUKUS, in which nuclear submarines will be built by the UK and US for Australia – means that there will be greater pressure for New Zealand to also buy more aircraft and naval vessels.
The increased presence of China in the region also gives greater justification for a spend-up. And it’s making a number of liberal voices increasingly pro-military spending. For example, Bernard Hickey writes this week: “In my view, a truly independent foreign policy needs some high and low flying steel to back it up, particularly when it comes to policing our enormous maritime zone and offering protection to our partners in the Pacific. China’s fishing fleet comes to mind.”
What’s more, New Zealand is now undertaking many more international military training exercises with other countries. And working with the US military is now finally a more possible occurrence. Therefore, if New Zealand is going to have interoperability with its allies, then it stands to reason that similar planes and aircraft are going to have to be purchased.
Is Labour’s military spend-up too much?
The Labour Government has been selling its economic approach as one focused on “wellbeing”. But it’s hard to see how its dramatic increase in spending on war-making infrastructure fits into such a principle. And money spent on defence is at the expense of housing, welfare, education, climate change initiatives and so forth. As some critics have suggested, more spending by Labour would be a case of prioritising “tanks over teachers”.
It also should be pointed out that even though NATO pushes a 2 per cent of GDP target for its members, not all countries actually achieve this. Herald journalist Thomas Coughlan has pointed out that “Canada spends 1.42 per cent of its GDP on defence, the Netherlands and Denmark spend 1.44 per cent and Sweden, which is not in Nato, spends 1.22 per cent.”
Jacinda Ardern has recently made much of the changing international security dynamic. In many respects, her speeches portend a much greater defence budget for the future. And yet she has also given speeches arguing for less militarisation, and calling “disarmament” and “diplomacy” instead.
Regardless, it is clear that as New Zealand becomes more closely aligned with increasingly active US-led military alliances, it seems that New Zealand is going to have to pay the price of membership to those clubs.
There is not a lot of public debate on these massive expenditures. But there should be. After all, the signs are that taxpayers are about to fork out much more for war.
Further reading on Defence
Thomas Manch (Stuff): Government to review defence policy amid Covid-19, geopolitical competition, climate change
Giles Dexter (RNZ): Govt aiming to settle ‘big questions’ with defence policy review – expert
Mohammad Alafeshat (RNZ): Navy frigate returns to New Zealand after major upgrade in Canada
1News: Call for fault-prone Air Force 757s to be replaced earlier
1News: Kiwis among world’s largest naval exercise in Hawaii
Other items of interest and importance today
HEALTH
Rachel Smalley (Today FM): Labour is allergic to our health system
Ian Powell: Health system now “beyond a crisis”
John MacDonald (Herald): Yes Minister, there is a health crisis
Matthew Hooton (Herald): Health NZ reform – why it could mean hospital closures (paywalled)
RNZ: Andrew Little: Govt responding to ‘chronic staffing shortage’ in healthcare
Dewi Preece (1News): ‘How many people have to die?’ – Paramedics at breaking point
Oliver Lewis (BusinessDesk): Charity hospitals, philanthropists covering health system gaps
Peter Dunne (Newsroom): Time is not on the Government’s side with health reforms
Rachel Moore (Stuff): Pharmacies under pressure, picking up overflow from booked out GPs
RNZ: New director of public health appointed
Tracy Watkins (Stuff): A lottery of death: Why are so many people dying without first-world care?
Cate Macintosh (Stuff): Surgical waiting list soars as patients languishing in pain say they feel like the ‘living dead’
Geoff Cunningham (Stuff): Health reforms are missing the problems at the coalface
Bryan Betty (Stuff): We’ll all suffer if pressures on GPs aren’t addressed
Rachel Smalley (NBR): Counting the human cost of terrible health system leadership (paywalled)
Kate Hawkesby (Newstalk): I’d have thought, at this time of year we’d be doing more to help the health system
Otago Daily Times: Southern hospitals struggling to treat patients at full capacity
Hannah Martin (Stuff): Long waits for frail Kiwis to access aged care will ‘collapse the health system’
Steven Cowan: Dark side of the moon
Lloyd Burr (Today FM): It’s time adult dental care was subsidised by the Government
1News: Midwifery sector in ‘crisis’ – Wellington community midwife
Nikki Macdonald (Stuff): Shame, suffering and strawberry sundaes – the underfunded, invisible ‘mess’ of palliative care
Waatea News: Bureaucracy kept in check at Māori Health Authority
Stephen Forbes (Local Democracy Reporting): Pharmac ‘procrastinating’ over funding glucose monitors, Diabetes NZ says
Waatea News: Culture lessons in way of Māori health change
Ben Gray (Stuff): Medsafe’s accountability to us is a reason we trust it over the FDA
Simon Wallace (Stuff): After years of neglect, aged care sector is under threat
COVID
Keith Lynch (Stuff): Why the government is doing (almost) nothing about Covid
Trenton Doyle (Herald): Fresh surge in cases has experts urging public to embrace masks, social distancing
Morgan Godfery (Guardian): New Zealand stands on the brink of the Covid precipice. Why aren’t we moving to red?
ODT: Editorial – Not the time for being over Covid
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): Greens call for return of ‘clarity’ to Government’s ‘muddled’ messaging as cases spike, stop short of calling for ‘red’
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): Christopher Luxon calls for clarity over Covid rules as cases jump higher
Herald: National’s Christopher Luxon calls for simple mask rules in Orange revamp, wants traffic lights scrapped
Verity Johnson (Stuff): As second Omicron wave hits, many appear indifferent to health advice
Rachel Maher (Herald): Covid 19 Omicron outbreak: ‘We have become too complacent’, expert warns as hospitalisations spike
RNZ: Rest of the world has moved on from Covid-19, Christoper Luxon says
Herald: Editorial: Covid 19 Omicron subvariants challenge immunity (paywalled)
Hannah Martin (Stuff): Covid minister warns of ‘tough few weeks’ ahead, as experts call for urgent reset
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s ‘simple request’ to Kiwis as cases surge, addresses concerns over ‘red’
RNZ: Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says New Zealand’s Covid settings reviewed constantly
Grant Bradley (Herald): Covid-19 on the job: Warning to bosses over sick staff (paywalled)
Jamie Morton (Herald): Why this wave will cause more to go to hospital and more deaths
Marc Daalder (Newsroom): Ministry urged to update mask and isolation advice
Rowan Quinn (RNZ): New variants play a part as thousands contract Covid-19 twice
Toby Manhire (Spinoff): Officially, just 1% have caught Covid twice. Why that’s an undercount – and set to surge
Herald: Editorial: School holidays a much-needed Omicron circuit-breaker (paywalled)
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern maintains current Covid restrictions have ‘greatest impact’, no advice red would make ‘marked difference’
Kirsty Johnston (Stuff): The Māori health providers battling mistrust over childhood vaccines
Gary Payinda (Herald): ‘Frightening’ vaccination rates in NZ children will lead to preventable deaths (paywalled)
1News: Whānau Ora chair: We can’t rely on Govt for Covid solutions
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: PACIFIC AND CHINA
Katharine Murphy (Guardian): Going its own way in a messy world, New Zealand offers an alternate parable on China
Michael Neilson (Herald): Jacinda Ardern announces climate funding for Fiji
Anneke Smith (RNZ): Kiribati’s exit from Pacific Forum not a sign of wider disunity – Jacinda Ardern
Sam Sachdeva (Newsroom): Ardern won’t speculate on Kiribati withdrawal from PIF
Shane Jones (Herald): Pacific Island Forum – PM Jacinda Ardern needs to put something in kava bowl (paywalled)
Tom Peters (World socialist website): New Zealand PM attempts to cover up alignment with US against China
William Hewett (Newshub): New Zealand’s long-standing relationship, cultural ties with the Pacific strong enough to fend off China, says Associate Foreign Minister Aupito William Sio
1News: Ardern attending Pacific Islands Forum in region’s ‘crucial time’
Dileepa Fonseka (Stuff): A warning about China, the ‘fragile superpower’
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): Chinese state media react to Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s major foreign policy speech
Christine Rovoi (Stuff): Ardern targets Pacific priorities on eve of leaders’ summit
Barbara Dreaver (1News): Pacific Islands Forum crisis as Kiribati withdraws
Dita De Boni (NBR): NZ should diversify its exports sooner: China expert (paywalled)
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: GENERAL
Don Brash: In defence of an independent foreign policy
Jon Johansson (Stuff): The uncomfortable truths about America, and our newest Free Trade Agreement
John Roughan (Herald): Independence is limited when you need help (paywalled)
Jack Tame (Herald): Three leaders, three countries, one big week in politics
Paul Buchanan: Countering coercive politics
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern reacts to Boris Johnson’s resignation
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: AUSTRALIA
Jane Patterson (RNZ): Stars align as hollow words for New Zealanders in Australia shift to concrete action
Jenée Tibshraeny (Herald): Jacinda Ardern in Australia: Bilateral kicks off with banter over Flying Nun Records and Midnight Oil
Cathy Odgers: New Zealand about to be “Each Way” Albo’d
Tess McClure and Paul Karp (Guardian): Anthony Albanese offers New Zealanders fresh approach on voting rights in Australia and deportation policy
Richard Harman: There are still clouds over the Tasman (paywalled)
Kethaki Masilamani (Newshub): Australia’s review of temporary residency rules is welcome news to New Zealanders across Tasman
Luke Malpass (Stuff): Ardern scores big win from Albanese in Australia trip
Jenee Tibshraeny (Herald): Ardern, Albanese on 501s, citizenship – is ‘reset’ bearing fruit? (paywalled)
Andrew Macfarlane (1News): Ardern scores a win in 501 discussions with Albanese
Jenée Tibshraeny and Michael Neilson (Herald): Jacinda Ardern in Australia: Anthony Albanese on 501s – Countries to show ‘common sense’ and work ‘as friends’
RNZ: Rights of New Zealanders living in Australia to be reviewed – Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese
Richard Harman: Ardern avoids Aussie questions (paywalled)
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: EUROPE
Sharon Brettkelly (Newsroom): Getting the EU trade deal across the line
Gordon Campbell: On the trade deal with the Europeans
LABOUR SHORTAGES AND MIGRATION
Tina Morrison (Stuff): ‘Every sector is screaming out for more workers’
Paul Spoonley (Stuff): There’s a labour shortage, but where will we get our workers from?
Michael Wood (Herald): What the Government is doing about the labour shortage
Susan Edmunds (Stuff): New Zealand lost 11,000 people in a year, Stats NZ says
Heather du Plessis-Allan (Herald): Govt’s immigration reset is keeping NZ poor (paywalled)
Fran O’Sullivan (Herald): On a quest for the missing element – workers (paywalled)
RNZ: Aged care sector: Provider pleads for change to immigration setting for nurses
Bernard Hickey (Interest): The unintended consequences of treating kiwis fairer in Australia
Brianna Mcilraith (Stuff): Cost of living and salaries drive more workers to eye move offshore
Paula Bennett (Herald): Jacinda Ardern needs solutions for hospitality and tourism not catchy slogans (paywalled)
Phil Pennington (RNZ): Nursing solution to health worker shortage shot down by government
Ireland Hendry-Tennent (Newshub): PM Jacinda Ardern suggests migrant nurses put off by needing to stay in role for two years ‘perhaps don’t want to be a nurse in NZ’
Niva Chittock (RNZ): Businesses under pressure as school holidays influx hits amid staffing pressures
Colin Peacock (RNZ): Hospo’s acute recruitment hassles hit headlines again
Nicholas Boyack (Stuff): Few takers for a job with a starting salary of $51,633
Herald: Editorial: Staffing crisis has nuances – but need for action is real (paywalled)
William Hewett (Newshub): Labour shortage: Greens co-leader Marama Davidson call for better pay and conditions for critical workers, residency pathways for low-wage migrants
Mike Hosking (Newstalk): Low wages won’t solve our labour crisis
Martyn Bradbury (Daily Blog): Why allowing bosses more migrant labour could start unemployment explosion in NZ
Maria Slade (NBR): Uni cancels training course in face of ‘chronic’ worker shortage
