Independent Analysis and Reportage
With the United States being viewed as responsible for a monumental botch-up in Afghanistan, how should its traditional security partners, including NATO and Australia, regard US-leadership in conflict? And, how should US allies position their own national interest in the future?
Analysis by Keith Rankin. The first two charts show official case numbers and deaths, for all countries, including the little countries that tend to dominate in the peak of the northern summer holiday season. Chart 1 shows the countries with the highest case numbers per person – from French Polynesia (Tahiti) to Greece, plus four ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: State of the World at the end of August 2021" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/09/01/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid19-state-of-the-world-at-the-end-of-august-2021/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: State of the World at the end of August 2021">Read more</a>
RNZ News Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says if New Zealand had not moved into lockdown, daily case numbers could have been around 550. Cabinet has confirmed that all of New Zealand south of Auckland will move to level 3 from 11.59pm on Tuesday night. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said today this would be for at ... <a title="Ardern confirms NZ lockdown moves – drop to 53 new covid community cases" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/08/31/ardern-confirms-nz-lockdown-moves-drop-to-53-new-covid-community-cases/" aria-label="Read more about Ardern confirms NZ lockdown moves – drop to 53 new covid community cases">Read more</a>
In the first half of this week's podcast Selwyn Manning and Paul Buchanan are joined by Dr David Robie to examine instability in the Pacific's Polynesian region - specifically to identify what’s going on in: New Caledonia, Fiji, Samoa. In the second half, Buchanan and Manning analyse the latest on Afghanistan and consider whether the USA's humiliating withdrawal suggests an end to liberal internationalism.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachelle Binny, Research scientist in mathematical modelling, Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research Fiona Goodall/Getty Images As New Zealanders wait to hear if a nationwide level 4 lockdown continues beyond midnight on Friday, our latest modelling shows that the current Delta variant has spread much faster than last ... <a title="Auckland is likely to remain in strict lockdown for several more weeks to stamp out NZ’s Delta outbreak" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/08/26/auckland-is-likely-to-remain-in-strict-lockdown-for-several-more-weeks-to-stamp-out-nzs-delta-outbreak-166651/" aria-label="Read more about Auckland is likely to remain in strict lockdown for several more weeks to stamp out NZ’s Delta outbreak">Read more</a>
Analysis by Keith Rankin. The first chart shows the three largest western countries: United States, United Kingdom, and Germany. The solid line plots represent quarterly average rates of excess death. It is clear that the United Kingdom copped Covid19 very early and very hard. The mid-June peak represents the period from mid-March to mid-June. It is ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: Excess Deaths in New Zealand and Comparator Countries" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/08/26/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-covid19-excess-deaths-in-new-zealand-and-comparator-countries/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Covid19: Excess Deaths in New Zealand and Comparator Countries">Read more</a>
Analysis by Bryce Edwards. Jacinda Ardern’s Government was judged to have handled the first outbreak of Covid in 2020 extremely well. In 2021 there are signs that the Government is being judged differently. Highly competent lockdown decisions and communications with the public are one thing, but questions are being raised about whether the Government has ... <a title="Bryce Edwards’ Political Roundup: The Government’s Covid preparedness under scrutiny" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/08/23/bryce-edwards-political-roundup-the-governments-covid-preparedness-under-scrutiny/" aria-label="Read more about Bryce Edwards’ Political Roundup: The Government’s Covid preparedness under scrutiny">Read more</a>
EVENING REPORT: On Friday August 20 the Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor Adrian Orr told Bloomberg that a fundamental imbalance in the New Zealand economy is a lack of supply within the residential housing market. But will a supply correction alone resolve New Zealand’s affordable housing crisis? Stephen Minto analyses this question.
Covid-Delta, Science, and the Problem of Known Unknowns – Analysis by Keith Rankin. It’s a known known that the late Donald Rumsfeld’s principal legacy to the world is the following quote: “As we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – the dangers of Delta, versus the dangers of reduced community immunity" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/08/20/keith-rankin-analysis-the-dangers-of-delta-versus-the-dangers-of-reduced-community-immunity/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – the dangers of Delta, versus the dangers of reduced community immunity">Read more</a>
Selwyn Manning and Paul Buchanan present this week’s podcast where they analyse the crisis, the tragedy, unfolding in Afghanistan, including an apparent intelligence failure. But were former president Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden told of the likelihood of a swift and total takeover by Taliban as soon as the US-led forces began to pull out?
RNZ News New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has announced an alert-level 4 lockdown starting at 11.59pm tonight for seven days in Auckland and Coromandel, and three days elsewhere. Ardern and Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield briefed media after a Cabinet meeting on the covid-19 community case identified in Auckland today. The Ministry of ... <a title="NZ declares national level 4 lockdown over covid community case" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/08/18/nz-declares-national-level-4-lockdown-over-covid-community-case/" aria-label="Read more about NZ declares national level 4 lockdown over covid community case">Read more</a>
RNZ News Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says work to get New Zealanders out of Afghanistan has ramped up, as commercial options become unavailable. Yesterday the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade said it was aware of 17 New Zealanders who were in Afghanistan, but Ardern said that number is now believed to be closer to ... <a title="NZ ramps up efforts to get 30 citizens out of Kabul as Taliban take capital" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2021/08/16/nz-ramps-up-efforts-to-get-30-citizens-out-of-kabul-as-taliban-take-capital/" aria-label="Read more about NZ ramps up efforts to get 30 citizens out of Kabul as Taliban take capital">Read more</a>