CoveragePost
April 10, 2025
Essay by Keith Rankin. ‘Rational Expectations’ is a problematic theory in economics. Here I want to focus more away from economics; and more on the meanings of ‘rationality’ in decision-making, than on the problematic ambiguity of the word ‘expect’ (and its derivatives such as ‘expectations’). ‘Expectation’ here means what we believe ‘will’ happen, not ‘should’ ... <a title="Keith Rankin Essay – Rational Expectations, Intelligence, and War" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/04/10/keith-rankin-essay-rational-expectations-intelligence-and-war/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Essay – Rational Expectations, Intelligence, and War">Read more</a>
CoveragePost
March 27, 2025
Analysis by Keith Rankin. While World War Two (WW2) always was a set of intersecting conflicts – with Japan fighting a war of imperialism in East Asia and the Western Pacific – the war in Europe has been cast as the ultimate battle of ‘Good’ versus ‘Evil’. Hence the narrative of the Good War. Further, ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Learning the correct lessons from World War Two in Europe" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/03/27/keith-rankin-analysis-learning-the-correct-lessons-from-world-war-two-in-europe/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Learning the correct lessons from World War Two in Europe">Read more</a>
CoveragePost
March 18, 2025
Analysis by Keith Rankin. As most of us appreciate, there is a whole geopolitical world that overlays the formal political world of about 200 ‘nation states’ (aka ‘polities’). Geopolitical fractures – a result of the ‘big games’ over and above the ‘rules-based order’ – occur in all sorts of places, sometimes through provinces, even counties. ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Geopolitical fractures, and untidy yet workable solutions" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/03/18/keith-rankin-analysis-geopolitical-fractures-and-untidy-yet-workable-solutions/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Geopolitical fractures, and untidy yet workable solutions">Read more</a>
CoveragePost
March 13, 2025
Opinion-Analysis – by Keith Rankin. Former ambassador Phil Goff is the latest (so far) and (probably) the least of many ‘statesmen’ who have invoked Munich and the ‘resolute’ Winston Churchill (a backbench MP in 1938) in the cause of good-war mongering. (Refer Winston Peters sacks Phil Goff as UK High Commissioner RNZ 6 March 2025, ... <a title="Opinion-Analysis by Keith Rankin – Invoking Munich, ‘Appeasement’, and the ‘Lessons of History’" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/03/13/opinion-analysis-by-keith-rankin-invoking-munich-appeasement-and-the-lessons-of-history/" aria-label="Read more about Opinion-Analysis by Keith Rankin – Invoking Munich, ‘Appeasement’, and the ‘Lessons of History’">Read more</a>
CoveragePost
March 12, 2025
Opinion Analysis by Keith Rankin. This story, Germany to ease government debt limits in major step aimed at boosting economy, defense spending,AP, 6 March 2015, reflects my comments in Germany’s Election 2025. (And note Reforming the debt brake: Now or never! Landesbank Baden-Württemberg, 28 Feb 2025. And Germany’s election victor must ditch its debt rules—immediately, ... <a title="Opinion Analysis by Keith Rankin – Dodgy Democracy, the Fiscal Double Standard, and the application of the Domino Theory to Ukraine" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/03/12/opinion-analysis-by-keith-rankin-dodgy-democracy-the-fiscal-double-standard-and-the-application-of-the-domino-theory-to-ukraine/" aria-label="Read more about Opinion Analysis by Keith Rankin – Dodgy Democracy, the Fiscal Double Standard, and the application of the Domino Theory to Ukraine">Read more</a>
CoveragePost
March 6, 2025
Opinion/Analysis by Keith Rankin. Germany’s important election last week struggled to make the news cycle, even on Germany’s own Deutsche Welle(DW), Germany’s equivalent of Britain’s BBC. Especially (but not only) in the international media, most of the focus was on a single party (AFD, Alliance for Germany) that was never going to have the most ... <a title="OPINION: Keith Rankin – Germany’s Election 2025: Far Establishment-Right versus Far Non-Establishment-Right?" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/03/06/opinion-keith-rankin-germanys-election-2025-far-establishment-right-versus-far-non-establishment-right/" aria-label="Read more about OPINION: Keith Rankin – Germany’s Election 2025: Far Establishment-Right versus Far Non-Establishment-Right?">Read more</a>
CoveragePost
February 27, 2025
Analysis by Keith Rankin. The above chart traces the vote-share of Germany’s establishment political parties: the right-wing CDU/CSU and the now-centre-right SPD (essentially the Christian Democrats, just like National in New Zealand) and the Social Democrats (just like Labour). And it compares Germany with England to show a similar process there. An increasingly stale political centre ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Germany’s stale (and still pale) political mainstream" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/02/27/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-germanys-stale-and-still-pale-political-mainstream/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Germany’s stale (and still pale) political mainstream">Read more</a>
CoveragePost
December 19, 2024
Analysis by Keith Rankin. To understand antisemitism, we need a meaning for ‘semitism’, and another -ism to contextualise semitism. Literally, semitism means the promotion of the Semitic people, whoever they might be. The most appropriate comparator for ‘semitism’ is ‘hamitism’, relating to the ‘hamites’ or ‘Hamitic people’; analogous to the ‘Semitic people’. These are archaic ... <a title="Keith Rankin Essay – Judaism, Antisemitism, and Israel" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/12/19/keith-rankin-essay-judaism-antisemitism-and-israel/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Essay – Judaism, Antisemitism, and Israel">Read more</a>
CoveragePost
December 10, 2024
Essay by Keith Rankin. A few days ago I watched a recording from Al Jazeera of Earthrise Systems Change. The news banner at the bottom of the screen told this story: “One person killed and at least five others injured in a car-ramming attack in central Tel Aviv. Medics say all victims in Tel Aviv ... <a title="Keith Rankin Essay – Al Aqsa provocation and the media game ‘Israel says’" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/12/10/keith-rankin-essay-al-aqsa-provocation-and-the-media-game-israel-says/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Essay – Al Aqsa provocation and the media game ‘Israel says’">Read more</a>
CoveragePost
December 6, 2024
Keith Rankin Analysis. I recently read the Auckland Library copy of the 1986 book Prophecy and politics: militant evangelists on the road to nuclear war, by Grace Halsell (1923-2000). Before she died, she also published (in 1999) Forcing God’s Hand: Why Millions Pray for a Quick Rapture—and Destruction of Planet Earth. A revised 2003 edition ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Israel, Syria, and the Map of the ‘Millennium’" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/12/06/keith-rankin-analysis-israel-syria-and-the-map-of-the-millennium/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Israel, Syria, and the Map of the ‘Millennium’">Read more</a>
CoveragePost
December 3, 2024
Keith Rankin – Opinion. Joe Biden struggled to understand why his presidency was unpopular; especially why so many regarded his economic legacy as weak when he thought it was strong. Indeed, by many of the conventional macroeconomic indicators Joe Biden’s economic policies were a success. Part of the problem is that much of that seeming ... <a title="Keith Rankin Opinion – Bidenomics and Luxonomics" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/12/03/keith-rankin-opinion-bidenomics-and-luxonomics/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Opinion – Bidenomics and Luxonomics">Read more</a>
CoveragePost
October 18, 2024
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Recently I have published charts showing how people born around 1960 are already placing huge burdens on New Zealand’s healthcare system (Death Frequencies in Aotearoa New Zealand, by Birth Year, 26 Sep 2024) and how big falls in age-specific death rates have plateaued since 2010, and may now be reversing upwards ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Decennial Increases in Deaths by Birth Cohort, in Aotearoa New Zealand" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/10/18/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-decennial-increases-in-deaths-by-birth-cohort-in-aotearoa-new-zealand/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Decennial Increases in Deaths by Birth Cohort, in Aotearoa New Zealand">Read more</a>
