Independent Analysis and Reportage
Auto Added by WPeMatico
Keith Rankin writes; ... it is hard to get a firm measure of true unemployment; of the gap between labour supply and labour demand. A measure of untapped labour. Conceptually, the best measure of unemployment is to subtract hours worked from hours offered, and then to get a percentage by dividing by hours offered.
Keith Rankin writes; Universal Basic Income... Opportunity presents its particular policy for a universal basic income (UBI, or 'Citizens Income' as they call it) as an aspiration; as a basis for public discussion and not as a scheme to be imposed on those people who push-back from engagement with the concept.
Keith Rankin writes; this from Stuff reporter Molly Swift on Three News yesterday (12 August 2026): "History shows that replacing a sitting prime minister in an election year doesn't end well. The only time it has worked was in 1943 after Michael Joseph Savage died in office, and Peter Fraser took over." - Michael Joseph Savage actually died in March 1940, not 1943.
Keith Rankin writes; My guess is that, if National does get to form a government (after the 2026 election) despite having no list MPs, then David Seymour will be insisting on becoming Minister of Finance. Or Shane Jones? New Zealand First might have more leverage than Act.
Keith Rankin writes; New Zealand's working-age population is in flux. Good for the international airlines which fly to Aotearoa, but potentially very difficult for the making of social policy. Mind you, if the policymakers don't really know about these dramatically fluctuating demographics, then they will be blissfully unaware of the difficulties which they face.
Keith Rankin writes; New Zealand's policy elites – including certain journalists at RNZ – have been responding to what is happening in the economy like possums struck by the glare of SUV headlights in full beam. And New Zealand's non-policy non-elites have little response other than to go – quietly (in most cases) – mad...
Keith Rankin writes; Neither Moscow nor Kyiv is in a situation like Japan was in July 1945; though Kyiv may yet end up in such a situation. I can see no scenario in which Moscow would ever surrender to either Kyiv, Berlin, Brussels, or Washington...
Keith Rankin writes; January 1956: "In a famous interview with Life magazine, Dulles formalized his philosophy of 'Brinkmanship', boasting that intentionally pushing the Soviet Union and China to the very verge of nuclear war was a 'necessary art' to secure peace." Is such Dulles-style brinkmanship Nato's present doctrine against Russia?
Keith Rankin writes; In 2026 we chatter more about interest rates and government debt, and talk as if misframed 'inflation' is the biggest threat of all. Such macroeconomist micro-doom chatter is largely an aggravating displacement activity, prose we can cite if or when we – rich as well as poor – go down with our own Homeric Titanic...
Keith Rankin writes; If we think of actual nuclear explosions – especially atmospheric ones – they have predominantly been in Oceania; in four sites which form something of a spoke-wheel around Auckland...
Keith Rankin writes; Ever since the Soviet Union gained the 'atomic bomb' in 1949, the argument among geopoliticians has been that an edgy global 'peace' has been maintained by virtue of the principle of deterrence... That principle has broken down...
Keith Rankin writes; Hipkins would be better served to address the point actually being made by Shane Jones. Was Luxon's behaviour sufficiently deferential to convey vassalage towards India? Was it as deferential as Mark Rutte calling Donald Trump "Daddy"?