Independent Analysis and Reportage
Auto Added by WPeMatico
Keith Rankin writes; Our present generation of political leaders seem to find the known truth – the known knowns – a source of political tension and defensiveness. The reason that they don't have the skills to negotiate facts when challenged is probably because the corporate media has hitherto done a particularly inadequate job of challenging them.
Keith Rankin writes; There is simply no evidence that fighting a general inflation with high interest rates works, or that any of the inflations in western capitalist countries this decade have been defeated by higher Bank interest rates.
Keith Rankin writes; New Zealand property market booms have never been driven by low interest rates compelling people to buy real estate. Rather, loanable funds have gone into real estate in large amounts when there was a lack of other compelling destinations for those funds; and when governments were reluctant borrowers despite a huge availability of loanable funds at favourable interest rates.
Keith Rankin writes; I see the two most probable outcomes for government in 2027 as a New Zealand version of the present reactionary-centrist German government, or a cautiously-radical pro-capitalist centre-left government in which the Greens and Opportunity together can inject a bit of spine and vision into Labour.
Keith Rankin writes; While New Zealand today may be seeing rising numbers of older people, it is also seeing significantly higher total numbers of teenagers. Indeed, unlike many other countries with majority European or East-Asian populations, New Zealand should continue to have a proportionately adequate working-age population.
Keith Rankin writes; ... it is hard to get a firm measure of true unemployment; of the gap between labour supply and labour demand. A measure of untapped labour. Conceptually, the best measure of unemployment is to subtract hours worked from hours offered, and then to get a percentage by dividing by hours offered.
Keith Rankin writes; Universal Basic Income... Opportunity presents its particular policy for a universal basic income (UBI, or 'Citizens Income' as they call it) as an aspiration; as a basis for public discussion and not as a scheme to be imposed on those people who push-back from engagement with the concept.
Keith Rankin writes; this from Stuff reporter Molly Swift on Three News yesterday (12 August 2026): "History shows that replacing a sitting prime minister in an election year doesn't end well. The only time it has worked was in 1943 after Michael Joseph Savage died in office, and Peter Fraser took over." - Michael Joseph Savage actually died in March 1940, not 1943.
Keith Rankin writes; My guess is that, if National does get to form a government (after the 2026 election) despite having no list MPs, then David Seymour will be insisting on becoming Minister of Finance. Or Shane Jones? New Zealand First might have more leverage than Act.
Keith Rankin writes; New Zealand's working-age population is in flux. Good for the international airlines which fly to Aotearoa, but potentially very difficult for the making of social policy. Mind you, if the policymakers don't really know about these dramatically fluctuating demographics, then they will be blissfully unaware of the difficulties which they face.
Keith Rankin writes; New Zealand's policy elites – including certain journalists at RNZ – have been responding to what is happening in the economy like possums struck by the glare of SUV headlights in full beam. And New Zealand's non-policy non-elites have little response other than to go – quietly (in most cases) – mad...
Keith Rankin writes; Neither Moscow nor Kyiv is in a situation like Japan was in July 1945; though Kyiv may yet end up in such a situation. I can see no scenario in which Moscow would ever surrender to either Kyiv, Berlin, Brussels, or Washington...