CoveragePost
August 6, 2024
Analysis by Keith Rankin. This morning the biggest news story by far was the collapse of the government of Bangladesh, the world’s eighth-biggest country by population, and a source of labour and international students for New Zealand. Not that you would have known that this was such a big story if reliant on the New ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Political Crisis in Bangladesh: Lessons for Aotearoa New Zealand" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/08/06/keith-rankin-analysis-political-crisis-in-bangladesh-lessons-for-aotearoa-new-zealand/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Political Crisis in Bangladesh: Lessons for Aotearoa New Zealand">Read more</a>
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August 4, 2024
Analysis by Keith Rankin. The above chart shows the votes for the principal ‘leftish’ political parties in England from 1992 to 2024. The important thing to note is that vote tallies should be rising over time in any country which has a rising population. England had had a rising population trend, yet the numbers of ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – The Political Left in England; an Analysis of Election Vote Counts" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/08/04/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-the-political-left-in-england-an-analysis-of-election-vote-counts/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – The Political Left in England; an Analysis of Election Vote Counts">Read more</a>
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July 31, 2024
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Today is ‘tax cut day’. The present round of income tax cuts has been controversial, despite the fact that they are not ‘real’ tax cuts, only bracket adjustments which partially compensate for CPI inflation this decade. (Here is an interview today with University of Auckland economist Susan St John, which suggests ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Tax Cuts: 1982 and 2024" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/07/31/keith-rankin-analysis-tax-cuts-1982-and-2024/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Tax Cuts: 1982 and 2024">Read more</a>
CoveragePost
July 31, 2024
Analysis by Keith Rankin. The above chart shows CPI inflation in New Zealand in historical context. The chart shows (in orange) the present policy target band of one to three percent annual inflation. And it shows the ‘home-ownership’ component of the CPI. The chart looks different to most charts of CPI inflation, because it uses ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – New Zealand’s Consumers Price Index: CPI Inflation past and present" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/07/31/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-new-zealands-consumers-price-index-cpi-inflation-past-and-present/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – New Zealand’s Consumers Price Index: CPI Inflation past and present">Read more</a>
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July 25, 2024
Analysis by Keith Rankin. An important (and widely commented on) book published last year is End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration, by Perer Turchin. Before reading this book I read his 2007 book War and Peace and War (see my 30 Jan 2024 article Asabiyya), Ages of Discord (2016, an application ... <a title="Keith Rankin Essay – Peter Turchin’s “End Times”; Some Comments" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/07/25/keith-rankin-essay-peter-turchins-end-times-some-comments/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Essay – Peter Turchin’s “End Times”; Some Comments">Read more</a>
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July 22, 2024
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Interest Rates and Increasing Prices: The Facts The first chart above challenges the received view that inflation in New Zealand remains stubbornly high, and that it is therefore appropriate for the Reserve Bank’s official cash rate (OCR) to be held for at least a few more months at its damagingly high ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – The Truth in New Zealand about Price Inflation and Interest Rates" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/07/22/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-the-truth-in-new-zealand-about-price-inflation-and-interest-rates/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – The Truth in New Zealand about Price Inflation and Interest Rates">Read more</a>
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July 17, 2024
Analysis by Keith Rankin. In November 1928, New Zealand had its own ‘Biden moment’ when the 72-year-old Sir Joseph Ward appeared to promise that, if his party won that year’s election, the New Zealand Government would borrow £70 million in 1 year, as a fiscal super-stimulus that would get New Zealand out of the economic ... <a title="Keith Rankin Essay – New Zealand’s Joe (Biden/Ward) moment" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/07/17/keith-rankin-essay-new-zealands-joe-biden-ward-moment/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Essay – New Zealand’s Joe (Biden/Ward) moment">Read more</a>
CoveragePost
July 13, 2024
Analysis by Keith Rankin, 12 July 2024. The recent French elections delivered an entirely predictable result; although few in the mainstream media actually predicted it. Instead, the pre-election narrative was that the dastardly ‘far right’ was heading for a win, and that a win for Rally France would presage some kind of disaster for democracy ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – France’s Two-ballot Voting System, and its New Zealand Antecedent" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/07/13/keith-rankin-analysis-frances-two-ballot-voting-system-and-its-new-zealand-antecedent/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – France’s Two-ballot Voting System, and its New Zealand Antecedent">Read more</a>
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March 29, 2024
Analysis by Keith Rankin. My earlier article – Can ‘Good’ be the Greater Evil? – looked at the issue of how wars should end, and how Good versus Evil framing of international conflicts makes it difficult for participants – especially those who are convinced they are the Good in an epic battle against an Evil ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – World War Two: Baddies and Goodies" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/03/29/keith-rankin-analysis-world-war-two-baddies-and-goodies/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – World War Two: Baddies and Goodies">Read more</a>
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March 25, 2024
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Much of our conflict in the world has been (at least at the time it was happening) framed as Good versus Evil, and with Good therefore having a moral imperative to prevail ‘at any cost’. Once upon a time – and in my lifetime – many of us regarded War as ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Can ‘Good’ be the Greater Evil?" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/03/25/keith-rankin-analysis-can-good-be-the-greater-evil/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Can ‘Good’ be the Greater Evil?">Read more</a>
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March 25, 2024
Opinion by Keith Rankin. Do we need real income-tax cuts this year? Probably not. Do we need nominal income-tax cuts? Yes, we do. The government should go ahead with its proposed tax cuts, but only to low and middle income earners. The tax cuts should compensate for the inflationary component of the cost of living ... <a title="Keith Rankin Opinion – Tax Cuts?" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/03/25/keith-rankin-opinion-tax-cuts/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Opinion – Tax Cuts?">Read more</a>
CoveragePost
March 21, 2024
Analysis by Keith Rankin. In this article, I will simply present the numbers for the key performance indicators (taken from tradingeconomics.com). And then I’ll give an update on GDP (gross domestic product) data, given today’s data release from Statistics New Zealand, and with the definition of ‘recession’ in mind. An important part of the context ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Economic Performance: New Zealand versus Japan" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/03/21/keith-rankin-analysis-economic-performance-new-zealand-versus-japan/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Economic Performance: New Zealand versus Japan">Read more</a>
