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Selwyn Manning Editorial: Mouths Firmly Shut – Is A Cover-up In Play?

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[caption id="attachment_183" align="alignleft" width="150"]Selwyn Manning, editor. Selwyn Manning, editor.[/caption] Editorial by Selwyn Manning. Respected New Zealand Herald journalist Phil Taylor’s reportage this week has again raised concerns about poor Government transparency. I also spoke on the issues raised in Phil Taylor’s report, on Radio New Zealand’s The Panel with Jim Mora.

Phil Taylor’s latest report (in what is shaping up to be a series) is titled ‘Witness said no to video link‘. It is about the New Zealand Defence Force and its attempt to avoid paying damages to a journalist, Jon Stephenson, who claimed it defamed him after [caption id="attachment_7548" align="alignright" width="150"]Metro - Eyes Wide Shut, May 2011. Metro – Eyes Wide Shut, May 2011.[/caption] his Metro magazine expose titled Eyes Wide Shut was published. The Herald began digging in to this issue after the National-led Government was forced by the Court to pay Jon Stephenson an undisclosed sum. The settlement came with conditions where both parties were not to discuss the proportioned values of that settlement. It is important to point out, those conditions do not prevent the Government from facing up to its public interest responsibilities, to enquire and speak out on what went on up in Afghanistan and why it attempted to shut this issue down through shoot-the-messenger tactics. Phil Taylor’s reportage shows the stonewalling continues and details how:

1) The Government spent $1 million on failing to defend itself after it apparently defamed journalist Jon Stephenson, after he exposed potential breaches of international law by New Zealand Defence personnel in Afghanistan.

2) The Government’s star witness, an Afghani security unit commander, refused to testify via video link from Afghanistan, but insisted he be brought to New Zealand.

3) Once here, the commander’s testimony was found to be untrue.

4) Despite this he was left to wander off around New Zealand without supervision.

5) He failed to take his return flight to Afghanistan, but has since claimed asylum and is seeking to stay here permanently.

When the Defence Minister Gerry Brownlee was asked by Phil Taylor:

Would there be an inquiry into whether or not the commander committed perjury, and whether the Defence Force was gamed?

Gerry Brownlee answered “no”. Frankly, such a response fails to serve the public interest, and leaves one wondering: what has the Government got to hide. This is serious stuff. The public deserves to know:

1) What really happened up there in Afghanistan

2) Why the Government appears to be shying away from revealing the facts and context of this affair

3) Why it appears the NZ Defence Force permitted its Afghani commander witness to wander off without supervision, especially after he may have committed perjury

4) And ultimately, who is possibly culpable or entangled in what may have been a significant breach of international law during the time New Zealand Defence personnel were operational in Afghanistan.

This sordid affair underscores how, under recent governments, how difficult it is to advance or compel our elected representatives to initiate a thorough formal inquiry on any matter that may be contrary to their political interests. Considering how this Government’s politicians appear determined to keep the facts hidden, in my view, it is now reasonable to question their motives. –]]>

Bryce Edwards’ Political Roundup – Cancer drugs – the case against Keytruda

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Political Roundup by Dr Bryce Edwards.

Cancer drugs – the case against Keytruda – (See Also: The Case for Keytruda.)

[caption id="attachment_4808" align="alignleft" width="150"]Dr Bryce Edwards. Dr Bryce Edwards.[/caption]

Is Pharmac’s decision not to prioritise funding melanoma drug Keytruda a case of “putting money before people”, or is it the inevitable outcome of making rational choices with limited resources? Yesterday, in part one, Bryce Edwards looked at The case for Keytruda. In part two he looks at the case for Pharmac’s independence, and therefore against the immediate funding of Keytruda. 

Who among us could refuse desperate cancer patients begging to have access to a potentially life saving drug? Not their families and friends, not the wider public and certainly not politicians. Politicians can be all of those things – cancer patient, family, friend – and they must also contend with intense public pressure and the siren call of votes.

That’s precisely why Pharmac is so important, say its supporters. It’s seen as a useful mechanism to rationally make good public health medicine funding decisions without the influence of emotion or even populism contaminating a good process.

Back in December Kevin Hague summed it up by saying: “There is always more demand on the health dollar than there is dollars to spend. That is why we have a system, reasonably free of political interference, that buys the most drugs at the best price to provide to the most number of New Zealanders. It is a system that by and large works and we support keeping it that way” – see: In defence of Pharmac. He says the main problem is “the pharmaceutical budget simply isn’t big enough, and is declining in real terms because of the underfunding of DHBs.”

In Hague’s view, the alternative is that we have dishonest debates where politicians are happy to ride in on their white horse but will not take responsibility for the repercussions of their actions. He says that’s what’s happening in the Keytruda debate and what’s missing is the acknowledgement that “If $30Mn is spent every year on Keytruda, it won’t be available for other people with different conditions, on drugs for which it says it has better evidence of health gain.”

It’s a point echoed by James Dann earlier this week: “the people who aren’t in this equation are the people whose treatment would have to be defunded. This is a zero sum game, and to fund one treatment, you have to defund another… To pitch one group with disease A versus a group with disease B would be an horrific spectacle, if we did have to watch it play out in public. So we don’t. We trust that a group of medical and pharmacological experts will weigh up all of the evidence, and come to conclusions for us” – see: Keytruda, Pharmac, and the zero sum game of drug funding. Dann argues “The political debate around this should focus on the amount we spend on drugs, not which specific drugs are funded.”

Writing in this week’s Listener, Jane Clifton says we are faced with the “dismaying prospect of reducing drug funding to a beauty parade. If politicians keep acceding to public campaigns by groups of particular patients, the health system could degenerate into a sick parody of X-Factor, with one illness lobby competing on the steps of Parliament to be more appealing than another.” 

For more on why Pharmac should be trusted to make drug buying decisions see the Herald editorial, Govt ought to keep clear on medicines.

While not all clinicians seem to agree with Pharmac’s initial decision on Keytruda, the University of Otago’s Tony Blakely provides some in depth cost-benefit analysis in support – see his blog post, Is Keytruda for advanced melanoma cost-effective? Applying the BODE3 rapid cost effectiveness calculator

Labour’s political interference

Labour has been on the receiving end of a wave of criticism this week for it’s pledge to overrule Pharmac and fund Keytruda if elected. Hague is strongly critical of Labour’s proposal saying “we have been there before” with National’s 2008 campaign to increase funding of Herceptin. He argues that “political interference almost always ends up in less health gain, not more.” 

In his column today in the NBR Matthew Hooton writes: “Against much competition, opposition leader John Key’s intervention in 2008 on behalf of Herceptin ranks as perhaps the most disgracefully cynical stunt in recent political history but opposition leader Andrew Little may have trumped him with Keytruda.”

In his column, King tarnishes reputation over Keytruda at end of career (paywalled) (http://bit.ly/HootonKeytruda), Hooton takes special aim at Labour’s health spokesperson Annette King who he believes is selling a new stance that she doesn’t actually believe in. He also argues that if Pharmac’s decision on Herceptin and Keytruda were flawed then a different approach is necessary: “a sensible policy response would be either to dramatically increase the funding or reform the model.”

Tracy Watkins also says that Cancer sufferers should not be used as a political football. Watkins decries the “political point scoring” and says science is being overrun by “naked politics”. She declares that “No one’s hands are clean in the Keytruda row – not Labour’s, for coat tailing the plight of vulnerable cancer patients to attack the Government. Not the drug companies, for which the political heat is useful leverage for driving up the price in their negotiations with Pharmac. And not National, for preaching the moral high ground despite creating an uneven playing field in the first place by running similar interference in Opposition over breast cancer drug Herceptin.”

A further condemnation of Labour’s “extreme new policy” is provided by Newstalk ZB’s Larry Williams, who says “This is deceitful. Labour have never funded drugs on that basis. Never. Now, all of a sudden, after a secret meeting with Big Pharma, they’re going to fund the latest state-of-the art drugs. Cost is no longer an issue, seemingly.  Political interference in drug selection is clearly foolish” – see: Cancer drug debate not solved by wild spending

The National Government’s political interference

Indications are that National is buckling under public pressure over Keytruda. Previously steadfast Health Minister Jonathan Coleman pledged earlier this week to “make the case” for extra funding for Pharmac in the May budget. See his interview with Paul Henry: Labour pushing Govt to fund life-saving drug

RNZ’s health correspondent Karen Brown later said it’s “not usually a promise you hear out loud from a government ahead of a budget” – listen to Brown’s interesting five minute discussion with Guyon Espiner: Funding of cancer drug Keytruda. She believes that Coleman’s admission that National was “wrong” to overrule Pharmac over Herceptin was more an admission of a “political mistake” as “once against they’re under pressure and this time they’re on the other side of the equation.” 

Yesterday the Government continued to tie itself in knots with Edwin Mitson reporting Coleman told a conference of GPs, pharmacy professionals and consumers that funding for melanoma treatment is “not too far away”, while simultaneously insisting the decision is up to Pharmac – see: Health Minister: Melanoma treatment funding not far off

Vernon Small says oh to be a “fly on the wall” when those discussions take place, as with no “directive from the Government, Pharmac may not in the end choose Keytruda – or for that matter any other drug to treat late stage melanoma – if it has higher priorities. However, you can be fairly certain that the Government will be moving heaven and earth to ensure it does” – see: Labour may not like it, but private dinners with drug lobbyists is a valid news story

In fact, National appears to have been leaving themselves wiggle room to repeat their Herceptin performance for some time. Back in December, before her reinstatement to cabinet, Judith Collins dropped hints on the Paul Henry show that the Government may yet fund Keytruda. Key himself has admitted their current hands-off Pharmac stance could be seen as “hypocritical”, while at the same time repeatedly refusing to rule out funding Keytruda.

The politics of “big pharma”

In the words of Vernon Small, opening the door of political meddling with Pharmac “merely invites in the lobbyists.” Gareth Morgan agrees, saying with customary bluntness “We need to bear in mind that Pharmac are negotiating with profit seeking companies here. The more politicians meddle with that, the more the drug companies will milk it. In other words if we keep throwing money at this problem, they will keep putting their prices up” – see: Pharmac and the Crazies: John Key admits mistake, Andrew Little looks to repeat it

Morgan also argues that “our drugs bill will explode” if politicians “keep running interference in order to covet special interest votes”. He concludes: “Unless taxpayers are happy to fund every drug on earth at any price, politicians need to get back in their cages, let Pharmac do its job of allocating the budget. The only political decision should be the size of their budget.” See also Gareth Morgan’s A letter to Annette

David Farrar pointed out last year that the actions of National over Herceptin and Labour over Keytruda “both play into the hands of large multinational pharmaceutical companies who learn that whipping up public support for a drug is a better method than convincing scientists and doctors that the benefits of a drug outweigh the costs” – see: Hague is right.

On Tuesday the Greens’ Kevin Hague was under attack for suggesting that political interference based on public pressure “sets up pharmaceutical companies to fund marketing campaigns which potentially could exploit people who are already the victims of these diseases to become lobbying pawns for industry” – see Simon Wong and Laura Macdonald’s Hague slated for ‘despicable’ drug lobbying comment. Lisa Renwick called Hague’s comments “despicable”, rejecting any suggestion she is involved with drug companies. 

In his column, Big Pharma winners from Keytruda stoush, Barry Soper says Renwick “doesn’t see herself as a guinea pig but as a survivor, and who can blame her?” but he says by virtue of her dependence on Keytruda to stay alive, she is essentially forced into assisting the drug company.

This week Stacey Kirk reported that “Drug company lobbyists were hosted at a special dinner by Labour leader Andrew Little, months before Labour announced its stance to override Pharmac and fund melanoma drug Keytruda” – see: Andrew Little dines with drug company executives months before adopting Keytruda stance.

Kirk points out that Labour’s stance is a “u-turn on its position during the widely publicised Herceptin debate in 2008.” But Little rejects any suggestion that Labour’s decision was influenced by drug companies, or notion of political donations being a factor. Kirk’s report also noted rumours that there are “significant ructions” forming within Labour over its political interference with Pharmac.

Following up on this, Vernon Small says “Labour’s reaction to Fairfax reports of a private dinner leader Andrew Little hosted with Medicines NZ (the lobby group set up and peopled with senior figures from the pharmaceutical industry) and of disquiet in the party, was visceral.” Well, Small says, Labour may not like it, but private dinners with drug lobbyists is a valid news story.

Blogger No Right Turn says FFS Labour, arguing that meeting with the pharmaceutical industry inevitably taints the party and gives the impression of “corporate shilling.” 

And for more on all these issues, especially in terms of background information on Keytruda and the pharmaceutical industry, see Gordon Campbell’s On Pharmac’s unequal battle over the funding of Keytruda

Finally, Danyl Mclauchlan argues National’s strategic acumen is largely based on a “willingness to break with political conventions when it is tactically advantageous to do so.” In doing so National has unleashed an arms race scenario and Mclauchlan argues no one should be surprised to see Labour now doing the same over Keytruda because: “Having opposition parties that are constrained by conventions but a government that breaks them whenever its convenient isn’t a thing” – see: Drug funding and political conventions.

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NewsRoom_Digest for March 4 2016

NewsroomPlus.com image

Today’s edition of NewsRoom_Digest features 2 resourceful links of the day and the politics pulse from Friday 4th of March. It is best viewed on a desktop screen.

NEWSROOM_MONITOR 

Noteworthy stories in the current news cycle include: Government books recording a $934 million surplus, before investment gains and losses, for the seven months to January 31; the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Committee rejecting a bid to have the deadline for public submissions on the TPP extended by a month to 11 April; and Police rejecting claims from young Africans living in New Zealand who say they have been racially profiled, harassed and beaten by officers.

POLITICS PULSE

Media releases issued from Parliament by political parties today 

included:

Government: $450m ACC transformation programme underway; First stage of 5-year ACC programme benefits businesses; Speech: Jonathan Coleman – National Stakeholder Forum for Integrated Pharmacist Services in the Community;World-leading expert to headline Open Data Day; Children’s Day starts Foster Care Awareness week; Nine Nelson Special Housing Areas approved; Over 100,000 Kiwis are using patient portals; Government Books Well-Balanced

Greens: Green Party Calls For Investigation Into Toxic Mill; Ditch the photo ops Minister, and deliver on electric cars

Labour: National’s failed education plans leave $120m unspent; 21st century ICT race is on and needs capital

Māori Party: Whāngai children to benefit from changes to paid parental leave

New Zealand First: TPPA Debate Being Muzzled

NZ National Party: Hutt Valley domestic tourism doubles since 2008

LINKS OF THE DAY

GOVERNMENTS FINANCIALS: The Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand for the seven months ended 31 January 2016 were released by the Treasury today.Read more:http://www.treasury.govt.nz/government/financialstatements

INTERNATIONAL OPEN DATA DAY: For the first time ever, New Zealanders will have the chance to talk open data and innovation with world-renowned US expert on open government Beth Noveck, who will talk to a New Zealand audience online to mark International Open Data Day on 5 March. Information on how to participate in the google hangouts is available on the LINZ website athttp://www.linz.govt.nz/open-data-hangouts

And that’s our sampling of “news you can use” for Friday 4th March.

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Kurdish hacker targets Fiji police, military websites – offline all day

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Report by David Robie. This article was first published on Café Pacific

SIX hours after this hacking was reported by Newswire Fiji, Café Pacific checked and found these Fiji websites still “defaced, offline or under repair …” By Allison Penjueli of Newswire Fiji Websites belonging to the Republic of Fiji Military Force (RFMF), Fiji Police Force and the Immigration Department were today “defaced” apparently by a Kurdish hacker known for his anti-ISIS views. In the attack, MuhmadEmad uploaded a picture of the Kurdish flag along with the words, “KurDish HaCkerS WaS Here” and “HaCKeD by MuhmadEmad, Long Live to peshmarga.” This was a reference to the Kurdish army of Peshmerga, which has been fighting to defend its homeland from the so-called Islamic State force based in Iraq. Fiji police spokesperson Inspector Josaia Weicavu said the force was aware of the hack and was working to rectify it. An RFMF spokesperson was unaware of the incident when contacted, but said he would look into the issue. Director of Immigration Nemani Vuniwaqa also said he was unaware of the hack, but would look into it urgently. MuhmadEmad has reportedly hacked numerous US and Turkey government websites over the past two years. Website defacement:
Website defacement is an attack on a website that changes the visual appearance of the site or a webpage. These are typically the work of system crackers, who break into a web server and replace the hosted website with one of their own.
When checking later in the day – more than 6 hours later, Café Pacific  found this for the Fiji military site from a university firewall: –]]>

Jane Kelsey: Govt majority on TPPA committee refuses to extend submissions, shows hearings are a farce

Source: Professor Jane Kelsey

National’s majority on the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade committee has refused to extend the deadline for submissions on the 30-chapter Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) past the 15 sitting days set out in the Cabinet manual, despite provision to do so if the government agrees, reports Auckland University law professor Jane Kelsey.

‘The government claims this is the most important agreement New Zealand has ever entered into and has promised ad nauseam that people can have their say (after the fact) before the select committee. Now they are refusing to give any extensions in advance and telling people if they make their submission later than the 11 March they risk not having it accepted’, she said.

In addition to the massive TPPA text, the same cut off applies to submissions on New Zealand’s accession to four important intellectual property treaties consequent on the TPPA.

Professor Kelsey sought an extension on the grounds that she is the claimants’  expert witness for the Waitangi Tribunal hearing on the TPPA that runs for the week of 14th March and will not be able to finalise a detailed and considered submission until after that date.

She and others who sought an extension received an email this morning saying: ‘At its meeting on Thursday, 3 March 2016 the committee resolved not to extend the closing date for the receipt of submissions. The closing date is Friday, 11 March 2016. The committee did agree to consider any substantive submissions received after that date on a case by case basis.’

‘That puts me and others in an impossible position of preparing a submission and having it rejected for being out of time’, Professor Kelsey said.

‘I have been working with others night and day since the secret text was released analysing the content and its implications for New Zealand. We have produced the kind of detailed analyses that the government should have done, instead of its farcical National Interest Analysis. But I haven’t even got to several important issues, such as impacts on public services and financial regulation, and clearly won’t have any chance to do so before the submissions close. These are not addressed in the implementing legislation so there is no chance to address them formally at all.’ 

‘Presumably this deadline is intended allow the government to fast track the treaty consideration and the implementing legislation through the House, and limit the evidence of public disquiet about the deal,’ Professor Kelsey said.

‘The government’s behaviour simply confirms that the select committee process is a farce and that there is not even a pretence of democracy when it comes to the TPPA.’

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Bryce Edwards’ Political roundup: Cancer drugs – the case for Keytruda

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Political Roundup by Dr Bryce Edwards. (See Also: The Case Against Keytruda)

[caption id="attachment_4808" align="alignleft" width="150"]Dr Bryce Edwards. Dr Bryce Edwards.[/caption]

Is Pharmac’s decision not to prioritise funding melanoma drug Keytruda a case of “putting money before people”, or is it the inevitable outcome of making rational choices with limited resources? In part one of a two-part political roundup this column outlines the case for the urgent funding of Pembrolizumab, better known by the brand name Keytruda.

Melanoma patients and their advocates were understandably dismayed when New Zealand’s drug buying agency Pharmac announced in December it deemed funding Keytruda a “low priority.”

The agency said it acknowledged the high incidence of melanoma and current lack of effective funded treatments for advanced melanoma in New Zealand, but had reservations about the “magnitude and long-term durability” of any benefits, “together with the extremely high cost of Keytruda.” It stated it would work with the “pharmaceutical company to see if the issues can be resolved through further data provision or through commercial means.” For more on Pharmac’s decision it’s worth reading the summary of advice to Pharmac on Keytruda

In December the Herald’s Martin Johnston published an in-depth look at how Pharmac makes its decisions – see his reports, The drugs of choice and Pharmac’s focus: getting best value

RNZ’s Karen Brown has a short backgrounder on the drug – see: What’s Keytruda and why won’t Pharmac fund it? and Michael Daly has a good overview of the debate in If Keytruda keeps melanoma patients alive, why isn’t it available free in NZ?

The views of melanoma patients

“How can you put money before people?” asks Jeff Paterson who was diagnosed with stage four melanoma and whose next phase of treatment will likely depend upon Keytruda – see Audrey Young’s Student’s cancer battle: Melanoma drugs not funded by Pharmac.

Paterson, along with Leisa Renwick – whose own cancer is in remission thanks to Keytruda – and other melanoma patients and supporters presented a petition at Parliament on Tuesday calling on the Government to fund the drug.

Thwarted by what many believe is a lack of accountability on the part of Pharmac, petition organiser Renwick said the only option was a public campaign: “There’s nothing else we can do but stand on the steps of parliament and ask the government to hear us. There are no other avenues of appeal.” You can listen to Leisa Renwick and the follow-up interview with Health Minister Jonathan Coleman on Tuesday’s Morning Report: Will the Health Minister front up to melanoma sufferers?

For more on Renwick’s own cancer and her drive to fight “separate health systems for those who can afford treatments and those who can’t”, see Martin Johnston’s Cancer – the cost of a life: Patient says system sends have-nots home to die.

Coleman initially declined to meet with petitioners – a decision that an appalled Duncan Garner labelled “uncaring. Not to mention bloody hypocritical” – see: Govt hypocritical to not talk with cancer patients. Garner complains, “His time is precious, apparently. Well so is theirs – many of them are dying, Minister, and they desperately need help, hope and the ear of someone in charge. That’s you, Sir.” 

Garner makes no bones about his position on the debate: “This Keytruda melanoma drug is saving lives and you know within a short space of time if it works. Trials need to start immediately. The road blocks and public service speak looks like petty politics. On this issue the Government has lost its touch.”

A lack of fairness and consistency

In another heartfelt piece, Duncan Garner says “this really is about the rich and the poor and it shouldn’t be. Access to medicines in this country should be access for all”. He “calls out” the Prime Minister for being happy to override Pharmac when it suits him, such as National’s 2008 opposition campaign to fund a longer course of breast cancer drug Herceptin against Pharmac’s advice. Garner says it’s not good enough to now tell melanoma patients “oh we can’t get involved in Pharmac decisions” and labels the Government’s stance on Keytruda ‘rubbish’.

If it ends in a public relations disaster then, according to Audrey Young, National only has itself to blame. Like Garner, Young says National is now paying the price for its actions over Herceptin, as the party appears “hollow, hypocritical and heartless” for its unwillingness to do the same for melanoma patients. In Govt’s hands-off stance is fine – if people aren’t dying she says when it comes to Keytruda the arms-length decision-making process is “not working” and “not fair” and politicians should intervene.

Amidst emotional scenes outside Parliament, Renwick told those gathered it absolutely comes down to money: “Only those with the means to pay can access medicines that can save our lives. The wealthy are offered treatment and the poor are sent home to die – and that’s a fact” – see Nicholas Jones’ Life-saving melanoma drug: ‘People are dying’ Health Minister Jonathan Coleman told.

Back in December Jane Phare reported Rich-lister turns to unfunded Keytruda.  Former beer baron Douglas Myers, now “under the care of a private London oncology clinic”, was reported to be spending “tens of thousands of dollars every month on chemotherapy drugs, including the new wonder drug Keytruda, to help keep him alive for a little longer.”

For most patients with advanced melanoma, though, it’s a tale of Givealittle pages, sausage sizzles, galas, cake stalls and raffles. And that’s the ‘lucky’ ones who have support and can fundraise, or are able to remortgage houses and cash in superannuation funds. Jeff Paterson and his family remind us that fighting cancer is harrowing enough without the terrible stress of continual fundraising. 

Paterson’s plight is shared by dozens of New Zealanders – for just a few examples, see Deidre Mussen and Rachel Thomas’ Desperate melanoma patients forced to fundraise for life-extending treatment, and Karen Brown’s Struggling to Stay Alive with Melanoma.

The views of cancer lobby groups

The call to urgently fund Keytruda has the support of some of New Zealand’s leading cancer specialists. Probably the most outspoken critic of Pharmac’s decision on the melanoma drug is oncologist and medical director of the Cancer Society, Chris Jackson.

Paul Henry, who has also campaigned hard for some time against Pharmac’s decision on Keytruda, recently interviewed Jackson – see: Cancer Society calling for life-saving drug. Jackson describes drugs like Keytruda as “truly transformative” and “light years” ahead of anything we have previously had available for treating patients with melanoma. Yet, he says, he has “to sit with patients every single week and say to them there are treatments that could benefit you that you can’t have.”

 

Jackson says it is accepted that chemotherapy is not an effective treatment for melanoma but, by virtue of deciding alternative drugs are not good enough, Pharmac has arrived at a position where they have “effectively made the decision that chemotherapy is an acceptable standard of care for melanoma in NZ… and it’s not… It’s just not credible to have that position.” 

He says that the claims we can’t afford the drug are “not true”, and it’s “a political decision” not to return the savings that Pharmac hands back to the government every year to the pharmaceutical budget. While absolute costings are not clear, as we are not privy to the price that Merck Sharp and Dohme is offering to Pharmac, he points out that costings cannot be based on an assumption that every single patient with advanced melanoma is appropriate for this drug. He says the effectiveness of Keytruda is established very quickly and “you are only paying for people who benefit after a period of around 3 months.”

In a must-read Herald opinion piece, Jackson elaborates on his arguments – see: Cancer sufferers in dark over drug, Jackson. He says the “answer is not politicians deciding what drugs to fund”, and instead he lays out other solutions to a situation that “offends our Kiwi sense of fairness.”

In the wake of the petition yesterday, Jackson posted on Facebook and on Tuesday he was interviewed on Newstalk ZB where he pointed out that, in contrast to New Zealand with “zero” available options, “Australia, England and Canada…each have “three funded, effective and readily available” melanoma drugs. He points out New Zealand invests less in cancer drugs than comparable countries and says greater funding would mean decisions more in line with those countries – Cancer Society: NZers deserve access to melanoma treatment.

Oncologist and Melanoma New Zealand board member, Rosalie Fisher, shares Jackson’s views and says she in “no doubt Keytruda is a breakthrough drug” and finds it hard to understand why Pharmac would not fund it. She too disagrees “with the idea that the data isn’t good enough… It’s certainly been good enough for Australia and the UK” – see Alex Ashton’s Cancer survivor ‘shattered’ at Pharmac funding call.

American cancer specialist Dr Antoni Ribas told John Campbell that he was among a group of specialists who “urged Dr Coleman to provide an effective funded treatment in November when he was here for a summit” – see: Melanoma patients deliver petition to parliament. Ribas says “I was appalled by the country with the highest incidence of melanoma being stuck with a chemotherapy drug, a four year old drug, when there’s many others that have been proven to be superior.” 

Martin Johnson says of course “the size of the drugs budget is at the heart of the Keytruda debate” – see his useful report, Pharmac’s focus: getting best value. So does New Zealand spend enough on medicine? Johnston reports that “Pharmac was created to constrain growth in spending on non-hospital medicines, which was 20 per cent in some years in the 1980s, and more recently its role has expanded into hospitals. Although New Zealand is slightly above average among the OECD club of developed countries for overall health spending as a proportion of the national income, we are ranked 29th out of 33 countries for our spending per capita on medicines.”

For more on this, see Danielle Nicholson’s New Zealand access to medicine worst in OECD

The view of Labour

The Labour Party is making the most of National’s new-found respect for Pharmac’s independence by promising to override Pharmac and fund Keytruda if elected. Andrew Little repeated that promise this week on Morning Report, saying “in the end it’s the politicians that set the rules for Pharmac.” You can listen to his four minute interview with Susie Ferguson which provides a good summary of Labour’s position: Health Minister needs to step up to responsibilities

Little says while Pharmac generally does a good job, “Politicians can get our own advice and make our own considerations. Sometimes you come across a situation where you say actually in the public interest it is right that this drug should be available and Pharmac should be required to fund it.”

Labour has adopted Chris Jackson’s suggestion that Pharmac follow Britain’s lead and establish an early-access funding scheme where, in areas of high unmet need, drugs that show early but compelling promise can at least be made temporarily available, ensuring people who are currently affected do not miss out while further data is collected. 

Labour has also been critical of savings from Pharmac’s budget being diverted to other parts of the health system, saying rather than papering over underfunding in other areas they should be spent on drug purchases – see: Sam Sachdeva’s $40m in Pharmac savings should be moved into new drug purchases – Labour.

Finally, there are some interesting satirical responses to the debate – see my blogpost, Cartoons about funding cancer drugs in New Zealand

Tomorrow: Part two: Cancer drugs – the case for Pharmac’s independence

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Tony Alexander’s Weekly Economic Overview March 3 2016

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Economic Analysis by Tony Alexander. [caption id="attachment_3709" align="alignleft" width="150"]Tony Alexander, BNZ economist. Tony Alexander, BNZ economist.[/caption] This week I discuss the recent reduction in business confidence but how the spread between winners and losers across sectors in NZ at the moment is amazingly wide. If tourists could be encouraged to spend a day frolicking with cows that would be great. Exchange rates have moved little while some retail interest rates have been lifted in response to bank funding costs rising offshore as the world gets concerned about offshore bank exposure to the likes of the energy sector and we Australasian banks get caught in the backwash.

The Overview isn’t a must read this time around in my opinion.

For the full analysis, continue reading below or Download document (pdf 360kb).

Business Slightly More CautiousBut The Averages Hide Wide Disparities We received evidence this week that the spike in concerns about world growth, wobbly sharemarkets, and renewed decline in dairy prices has dented the sentiment of the country’s business sector. A net 7% of respondents in the latest ANZ Business Outlook survey say that they feel optimistic about the economy in a year’s time. This is down from a net 23% in December and slightly below the ten year average reading for this measure of +10%. Thus caution prevails out there. Is it much denting intentions of hiring and investing however? A net 12% of businesses say they plan hiring more people. This is down from 20% in December so a sizeable drop. But it is still twice the average February reading of just +6% so we remain prepared to say that jobs growth will be reasonable going forward. Though it depends of course upon what sector you are thinking about. Hiring intentions are well above average in retailing, manufacturing and services. But at -8.7% agricultural intentions are below the net 2% positive average and at 0% the construction sector reading is below the 10% average and December’s 30% reading. That is probably the most interesting of the employment readings and worth keeping an eye on because it will probably not stay that weak given the volume of work coming up.
Intentions of investing in new plant and machinery etc. have not changed much in recent months and sit now at 14% from 15% in December and an average of 12%. To put more flesh on the bones of these numerical surveys run by the likes of ANZ and NZIER we run our quarterly BNZ Confidence Survey the results of which were distributed to everyone on the Weekly Overview emailing list on Wednesday. In the dairying sector deep pessimism prevails and it would be quite bold to extrapolate this week’s 1.4% rise in average prices at the Global Dairy Trade auction into an upward trend as yet. The dairying pain is being felt more and more amongst firms supporting the sector with an extra aggravating factor being new weakness showing up in sheep and beef. But outside of those primary sectors most others are doing quite well. This includes honey, venison, kiwifruit, pipfruit, horticulture and forestry. Wine sales and production are also going well. Then there are the sectors which are booming. Top of the list is tourism with huge rises in visitor numbers and spending spread throughout the country. Construction is also very firm with a noticeable lift in positive comments from the regions backing up the growth apparent in monthly consent issuance data. The survey basically shows strong offset to the dairy sector weakness which leaves fairly much all of us forecasters continuing to speak in terms of 2% – 3% growth over each the next couple of years. For most of us the outlook also translates into the absence of any expectation of much weakness in the NZD. Regarding monetary policy views are more mixed. We don’t think the RB will cut again but others who perhaps have failed to factor in the global development of monetary policy easings consistently failing to lift inflation rates still expect two more decreases. Possible but not probable. Housing Construction of dwellings in New Zealand is rising with consents for 27,124 dwellings issued in the year to January ahead 9.9% from a year earlier and 95% higher than in the year to January 2012. But there are big variations around the country. In Canterbury consents have fallen by 13% this past year to sit at 6,311 from 7,255 a year ago. This is still well above the 23 year average of 3,700 but in the three months to January numbers were 25% down from a year ago. So things are falling away quite quickly now that a lot of the postearthquake construction is done. In Auckland there is in contrast good growth – though not enough to make many people think that the shortage is going to radically improve let alone disappear in the next few years. In the year to January in Auckland consents for the construction of 9,275 dwellings were issued. This makes for a 22% rise from a year before but in the three months to January growth was less than that at 16.4% from a year ago. So maybe growth is slowing a tad. Average consents issued per annum for the past 23 years total 7,400. It is in the rest of the country however where things are getting interesting. In a traditional lagged response to a lift in sales and prices construction is rising with consents issued in NZ excluding Auckland and Canterbury ahead 39% in the three months to January from a year ago. Average consent issuance outside our two biggest cities has been 11,200 these past 23 years and the latest total is only just above that at 11,538. What does it all mean? As the construction boom fades in Christchurch tail-end companies which might have over-traded will be caught out. Everyone knew this would be coming. In Auckland supply is not rising fast enough even to meet the needs of migration-driven population growth. Growth in building outside of Auckland will make it even harder for people to find builders in Auckland. Tradies are going to quit Auckland for work elsewhere. History tells us to watch out for over-optimistic building in some parts of the country which seem flavour of the month to investors currently and perhaps draw some media exposure, but which have fairly low population growth which in the end will generate a price impact down the track. In other words, if you are an Aucklander in panic mode because you missed out on some cheap place in Huntly or elsewhere, watch what the locals may soon be trying to sell you and for most though not all locations don’t blindly extrapolate the construction of houses on a new subdivision into a multi-year boom in construction in that area for which it would be a good idea to prepare for by snapping up sections in the next development. The one you see underway could soak up all that town’s population growth if any for the next decade. Speaking of Auckland, there was weakness apparent in the Barfoot and Thompson monthly numbers released this morning. Their sales in Auckland in February were down by 17% from a year ago and off a seasonally adjusted pace near 20% from January. The average sales price lifted to $822,000 from $812,000 in January to lie 10% ahead of a year ago. But this annual gain reflects rises earlier in the 12 month period and over the past three months prices have fallen on average by 1.9%. This change from +3.2% in the three months to November and +3% in the three months to August is largely a seasonal thing. Nonetheless the result still shows a market taking a decent summer pause. The stock of listings at the end of the month was ahead 1.8% from a year ago but of greater interest is the strong lift in new listings received during the month to 2,060 from 1,771 a year ago. This is the greatest number of new listings in February for at least the past 15 years so price restraint is likely to continue in the near future as buyers focus their attention on the regions. But before anyone starts thinking that sellers are rushing agents it pays to note that in the middle of last year for a while new listings were running 88% ahead of the same month a year earlier. NZ Dollar This has been a week in which investors have smiled a bit more because the People’s Bank of China cut reserve requirements for Chinese banks thus injecting more money into their banking system, the US Treasury reduced their worries about a Chinese currency devaluation, economic data in the United States came in better than expected, and the Reserve Bank of Australia left monetary policy unchanged feeling slightly less worried about their economy. The improvement in risk tolerance has caused sharemarkets to rise, the Yen to weaken slightly, and we have lost ground slightly against a marginally firmer Aussie dollar boosted by the no-change stance from the RBA and better than expected 0.6% growth in Australia’s GDP during the December quarter. Full year growth was a good 2.5%. Yet no decisive blows have been struck against the many factors which since the start of the year have been occupying the minds of people. These include weak energy and commodity prices, the ineffectiveness of monetary policy and limited ability of central banks to respond if something new and nasty hits world growth, the rising probability that the UK will exit the EU, deepening divisions between EU members over the projects appalling floundering on the refugee crises, the militarisation of the South China seas by China and rising rhetoric against such expansionism by the US and directly affected countries who are boosting military spending in response, the Middle East crisis in its many forms, the unpredictability of financial and economic variables as the GFC has changed relationships between things, and to top it all off the now rising prevalence of questions regarding what a United States led by Donald Trump might look like and do. Late today the NZD was buying the same USDs as a week ago near 66.5, more Yen of about 75.5 from 74.3, fewer pounds near 47.3 from 47.8, more Euros near 61.3 from 60.4, and fewer AUDs near 91.2 cents from 92.4. This is about as low as the NZD has been against the Aussie dollar since early December so for the many people out there holding AUDs wanting them in NZDs one wonders if this might not be an opportune time to transact some – whilst realistically having no idea personally about where the rate will be in a week, month, year, or decades time. You will find current spot rates here. http://www.xe.com/currency/nzd-new-zealand-dollar If I Were A Borrower What Would I Do? US bond yields have risen this week amidst a mild rise in expectations of more Fed tightening this year. But more easing remains likely in other parts of the world like Japan and Europe, and wariness of banks in Europe has blown out NZ bank offshore funding costs which you might notice have been passed on slightly this past week in the form of higher fixed lending rates. Would I still fix three years now that our rate has been lifted from 4.49% to 4.64%. Yes. I would be great security for a low price as compared with October last year when I fixed two years near 4.4% but the three year rate was a tad out of reach at 5.19%. If I Were An Investor The text at this link explains why I do not include a section discussing what I would do if I were an investor. http://tonyalexander.co.nz/regular-publications/bnz-weekly-overview/if-i-were-an-investor/ For Noting
The Weekly Overview is written by Tony Alexander, Chief Economist at the Bank of New Zealand. The views expressed are my own and do not purport to represent the views of the BNZ. To receive the Weekly Overview each Thursday night please sign up at www.tonyalexander.co.nz To change your address or unsubscribe please click the link at the bottom of your email. Tony.alexander@bnz.co.nz
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NewsRoom_Digest for 3 March 2016

NewsroomPlus.com image Today’s edition of NewsRoom_Digest features 4 resourceful links of the day and the politics pulse from Thursday 3rd of March. It is best viewed on a desktop screen. NEWSROOM_MONITOR Noteworthy stories in the current news cycle include: asking prices for properties in Auckland have risen to a record high, with data from realestate.co.nz showing the average asking price in the country’s biggest city jumped 13.3%, or $101,656, to $866,080 in the year to February; voting in the final referendum on New Zealand’s flag starts today; and the New Zealand Rugby Union says it has no plans to remove contact rugby from schools, despite calls from British doctors to ban it there. POLITICS PULSE Media releases issued from Parliament by political parties today included: Government: New Zealand’s constitutional treasures to be more accessible; Services and investment boosted under TPP; Second phase ETS Review documents released;Youth in court down 61 per cent since 2007/08;Road crashes cost us all — Foss; Speech: Amy Adams – Opening address to Media Technology-Pacific Conference, Auckland; Beetles help wage War on Weeds; New Zealand welcomes UN Security Council resolution on North Korea; Targets to provide direction for our energy future; Speech: Simon Bridges – New Zealand’s renewable advantage – moving beyond electricity; Ture Whenua Māori Bill strengthens retention of Māori land; Callaghan Innovation Board appointments announced; Youth Justice success in Wellington; PM Acknowledges Passing Of Martin Crowe ACT Party: Seymour assists Collins with reading the law; Seymour challenges Dom Post editorial writer to name themselves and visit a Partnership School Greens: Green Party Calls For Investigation Of Clean Alternatives To Huntly Coal;Condolences for Martin Crowe; Nick Smith misleads the House and the public over rentals Bill Labour: Nat MPs block call for NZTE to return to committee; Workers need more family time, not less; Don’t ask, don’t tell on illegal school fees Māori Party: Māori Party Supports Greater Trustee Control Over Wairarapa Whenua; Have your say on the flag referendum New Zealand First: Crowe’s Courage And Class Will Be Remembered – Peters NZ National Party: Technology Valley Awards will help showcase the Hutt; Bishop urges family violence conversation to continue United Future Party: Flag Referendum Needs To Look Out For Future Generations; Dunne Speaks – The Student Loan Debt Monster Rampages On LINKS OF THE DAY BUILDING ACTIVITY: Building activity reached a record high in the December 2015 quarter, with an increase from the previous quarter in Auckland but a decrease in Canterbury, according to Statistics New Zealand. More details at:http://bit.ly/1ORHrnq ETS REVIEW DOCUMENTS: Two technical documents were released today to help New Zealanders engage with the second phase of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) review. The two reports are available at: http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/climate-change/forestry-technical-note http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/climate-change/operational-matters-technical-note LIFE TABLES: New Zealand cohort life tables track the mortality experience of people born in each year from 1876. These complement the more common period life tables, which show the mortality experience in a specific time period. The tables were released by Statistics New Zealand. Read more: http://bit.ly/1QML67l ROAD CRASHES COST: The Ministry of Transport’s annual Social Cost of Road Crashes and Injuries report estimated the total social cost of fatal and injury crashes in 2014 was $3.47 billion (in June 2015 prices). The latest report is available on the Ministry of Transport’s website: www.transport.govt.nz/socialcost And that’s our sampling of “news you can use” for Thursday 3rd March. –]]>

Tony Alexander: BNZ’s Confidence Quarterly Survey For 2016 Is Released

MIL OSI – Source: BNZ Economist Tony Alexander – Analysis:

Our first quarterly BNZ Confidence Survey for 2016 has unsurprisingly shown that the dairying sector is extremely pessimistic and experiencing hard times while record optimism prevails in tourism where visitor numbers and spending are booming. The weakness in dairying is starting to spread out but construction around the country is very strong, regional housing markets are lifting, and in Auckland while real estate comments are highly mixed it is interesting to note some respondents observing more Chinese buyers recently. Download the entire document here 513kb (pdf) Dairy Woe But Tourism & Construction Booms Underway Our first quarterly survey for 2016 in which we ask Weekly Overview readers to comment on their sectors has produced some stark results. At the negative end understandably is the dairy sector with high pessimism and also some reduced confidence in sheep and beef. However in horticulture sentiment is very positive. At the other end of the spectrum are regional housing markets now benefitting from Aucklanders seeking assets and locals jumping on this cyclical bandwagon, and tourism. Strong growth in visitor numbers and their spending has produced the most positive set of comments on tourism or potentially any sector that we have seen in the 11 year history of this survey. The construction and engineering sectors are also very buoyant and forestry positive. Retailing is also generally though not completely positive and with margins under pressure. In the middle is the Auckland residential property market with a mixture of negative comments but also continuing listings shortages in some areas and one or two comments that Chinese buyers appear to be returning. With regard to specific sectors the following broad comments can be made. Accountancy Lots of compliance work, tightening in rural areas. Advertising and Marketing Generally good activity. No indication of either fresh caution amongst clients or surge in spending. Construction Most obvious development is a lift in activity in the regions. Auckland as busy as ever, costs rising. Engineering Extremely busy Farming Very negative comments regarding dairying, sheep and beef less positive than before, venison good. Weakness in dairying is sharply affecting farm servicing companies. Forestry Quite positive comments including for sawmilling. Horticulture Nothing but positive comments spread across kiwifruit, avocadoes, blueberries, flowers and vegetables. Manufacturing Flat to good but with dairying weakness starting to come through for some. Property Development Strong growth apparent but slowing in Christchurch. Property Management/Investment Good tenant demand, rents rising typically less than 5% but one example of more, investors paying high prices to get stock. Recruitment Very busy but often with shortages of potential staff. Residential Real Estate Very strong outside Auckland and Christchurch. Some signs that Chinese buyers are returning to the market in Auckland but overall quite mixed comments for Auckland. Retail Margins squeezed but sales good overall. Tourism Absolutely booming. Never before have we received such an abundance of positive tourism sector comments.
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NewsRoom Digest: Top NZ News Items for March 2 Edition, 2016

Newsroom Digest

Today’s edition of NewsRoom_Digest features 4 resourceful link of the day and the politics pulse from Wednesday 2nd of March. It is best viewed on a desktop screen.

NEWSROOM_MONITOR 

Noteworthy stories in the current news cycle include: student groups around the country calling for action as student loan debt reaches $15 billion; further signs the housing market is cooling with new QV data showing national house values were flat last month when compared with January; and the Government announcing details of its plans for more emergency housing in Auckland.

POLITICS PULSE

Media releases issued from Parliament by political parties today included:

Government: Encouraging response to family violence law review; $2 million boost to help homeless Aucklanders; New Standards Approval Board appointed; Oamaru Courthouse to be re-opened; European Parliament supports start to FTA; High Commissioner to Tuvalu announced; All New Zealanders should have a say on future flag; Good uptake of first year midwifery programme; $2.1m pay increase for lead maternity carers; Applications open for $2m Māori Innovation Fund;Appointments to the new Waiariki Bay of Plenty Polytechnic Council; First Dubai – Auckland flights take off

Greens: Nick Smith must explain why he won’t save lives & add a WoF to rental housing bill; Government’s sneaky moves push students into $15 billion debt;Govt can help victims of domestic violence stay in work

Labour: Student debt time bomb clocks $15 billion; Support for inquiry into $40 million Dam decision; Labour Calls For One Month Extension To TPP Deadline; Minister must fast track family law review; Out of touch Minister blasé over missed KiwiSaver payments

New Zealand First: Kaikoura Cheese Factory Closure Shows Govt’s Indifference; Northland Under Attack As Rail Run Down; Ban Gangs From State Houses

LINKS OF THE DAY

FAMILY VIOLENCE LAW REVIEW: A summary of the submissions received during a public consultation about the Government’s comprehensive review of family violence laws was released today. The summary of submissions is available at: https://consultations.justice.govt.nz/policy/family-violence-law

IMPORTS AND EXPORTS: New Zealand earned $2.5 billion more from exports than we spent on imports during the year ended December 2015, according to Statistics New Zealand. More details at: http://bit.ly/1L49WDA

PROPERTY VALUE RISES: The latest monthly QV House Price Index shows that nationwide residential property values for February have increased 11.6% over the past year. Read more: https://www.qv.co.nz/resources/residential-house-price-index

STANDARDS APPROVAL BOARD: New Zealand’s first Standards Approval Board, an independent statutory board set up under the Standards and Accreditation Act 2015 was announced today. More information about the new Board together with other changes under the new Standards and Accreditation Act is available here:https://www.standards.govt.nz/about-us/who-we-are/approval-board

And that’s our sampling of “news you can use” for Wednesday 2nd March.

Brought to EveningReport by Newsroom Digest.

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NewsRoom Digest: Top NZ News Items for March 1 Edition, 2016

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Newsroom Digest

Today’s edition of NewsRoom_Digest features 7 resourceful links of the day and the politics pulse from Tuesday 1st of March. It is best viewed on a desktop screen.

NEWSROOM_MONITOR 

Noteworthy stories in the current news cycle include: the Labour Party saying it may support Government changes to employment laws, if the legislation can be altered to deal with zero-hours contracts; Health Minister Jonathan Coleman saying Pharmac has to consider the number of people who will benefit when providing money for a melanoma drug being called for by sufferers; and the Government launching a multi-pronged attack on gangs and gang culture.

POLITICS PULSE

Media releases issued from Parliament by political parties today 

included:

Government: New Gang Intelligence Centre will reduce gang harm;Reducing the harm and cost of gang life; Licence suspensions net $43.5m over two years; New Food Act comes into force;NZ boosts Fiji cyclone aid to $4.7 million; Demand for UFB sees uptake hit 20 per cent;Minister meets education experts in Estonia

ACT Party: Minimum wage hike whacks regional employment

Greens: Key must apologise to the Jon Stephenson; Greens To Push Nick Smith To Improve RTA Bill

Labour: Labour To Support Next Step Of Workplace Law

New Zealand First: Govt Failing NZ Cancer Sufferers

NZ National Party: Bishop welcomes 2016 Hutt STEMM Festival

LINKS OF THE DAY

DAIRY SECTOR COMPETITION: The Commerce Commission has today released its final report on the state of competition in New Zealand’s dairy industry. A copy of the final report can be found here:http://www.comcom.govt.nz/regulated-industries/dairy-industry/report-on-the-state-of-competition-in-the-new-zealand-dairy-industry/

DELOITTE SOUTH ISLAND INDEX: All seven industry sectors achieved positive results in the quarter to 31 December 2015.The Deloitte South Island Index rebounded in the quarter ended 31 December 2015 posting a record quarterly gain after three consecutive quarters of challenging results. To see the full Deloitte South Island Index quarterly report, go to www.deloitte.com/nz/southislandindex.

EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION: An Education Review Office report on early childhood education shows that a significant number of services are in breach of important regulations and this is having an impact on quality. Click here for the report: http://www.ero.govt.nz/National-Reports/Meeting-requirements-for-children-s-safety-and-wellbeing-in-ECE-February-2016

FINANCIAL REPORTING: The Auditor-General’s report Improving financial reporting in the public sector was presented to the House of Representatives. Click here for the “Improving financial reporting in the public sector “:http://www.oag.govt.nz/2016/financial-reporting?utm_source=subs&utm_medium=subs&utm_campaign=RONAS

GANG LIFE REPORT: A report launched today by the Ministry of Social Development examined 3,960 patched and prospect gang members known to the Police in July 2014, and found that 92 per cent have received a main benefit. The full report is available at: www.msd.govt.nz/about-msd-and-our-work/publications-resources/research/research-on-gangs-and-their-cost/index.html

NEW FOOD STANDARDS CODE: Food Standards Australia New Zealand (FSANZ) today notified all stakeholders that a revised version of the Food Standards Code has now come into effect. The new version of the Code can be viewed on the FSANZ website: http://admin-www.foodstandards.gov.au/media/Pages/Leap-into-the-new-food-standards-code.aspx.

TERMS OF TRADE: The merchandise (goods) terms of trade fell 2.0 percent in the December 2015 quarter, following a 3.8 percent fall in the September 2015 quarter, according to Statistics NZ. Read more: http://bit.ly/21F3EhD

And that’s our sampling of “news you can use” for Tuesday 1st March.

Brought to EveningReport by Newsroom Digest.

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Bryce Edwards’ Political Roundup: Increasing hatred for John Key

Political Roundup by Dr Bryce Edwards.

[caption id="attachment_4808" align="alignleft" width="150"]Dr Bryce Edwards. Dr Bryce Edwards.[/caption]

There appears to be a growing hatred of John Key, especially from the political left. Some label this phenomenon “Key Derangement Syndrome”. But is this anger toward the prime minister simply an understandable by-product of personality-driven politics and a polarised society?

Matthew Hooton has a theory that the New Zealand political left suffers from “Key Derangement Syndrome” (KDS). By this he means that political activists – especially those aligned with Labour and the Greens – tend to have an irrational hatred of John Key that is out of line with reality and with the wider public. According to Hooton, sufferers of KDS are hamstrung by their hatred of Key as their lack of perspective undermines their effectiveness as an opposition.

Or course, being a right-wing political commentator, Hooton would say that wouldn’t he? Interestingly, though, Hooton admitted last week that he is “a previous sufferer of Clark Derangement Syndrome” – an extreme dislike of prime minister Helen Clark that was unrealistic and exaggerated. He blames such syndromes on the fact that “political rhetoric can get out of hand in groupthink situations (like blogs, twitter etc).”

Is anger towards Key on the rise?

Last week Patrick Gower argued “There is no doubt the Prime Minister is experiencing a more visceral hatred than ever before this year” – see: Danger signs but never underestimate John Key. Gower points out that what Key has been through already this year – booed at the Auckland nines and the Big Gay Out and “targeted by a dangerous internal leak” – was “previously unthinkable”. He argues it’s a sign of a “new found disrespect” as Key’s detractors have been emboldened by vibrant opposition to the TPP. 

Gower believes that, like Helen Clark before him, Key has become a more polarising figure over time. But he warns that calls of “it’s over for Key” are premature. For as long as Key is still capable of pulling off deals such as the citizenship concession from Australia and ruthless populist moves such as his non-attendance at Waitangi, Gower says hate won’t stop him: “The Prime Minister may have to adjust to the hate, taking it as part of the job, but as long as he keeps making gains and keeps just enough likers liking him, well – it ain’t over.”

In Business as usual Danyl Mclauchlan makes a similar point: “Opposition MPs talking about values and visionary aspirations and compromised sovereignty and the future of work and what a jerk they all think John Key is all very well, but if Key’s government is seen to be doing a good job in delivering the core government services that voters value, they’re not going to change their votes. And they shouldn’t!”

Audrey Young describes Key’s tenure as “one of the longest honeymoons in political history” and has an interesting comparison of Key’s popularity with Helen Clark’s: “In the December Herald-DigiPoll survey, Mr Key was preferred Prime Minister by 65.2 per cent of voters after seven years in office. Helen Clark had been similarly popular, too, after six years as Prime Minister, rating nearly 60 per cent, but had slid to 41.6 per cent by the time she lost office in 2008” – see: TPP protests put damper on long Key honeymoon

Like Gower, Young notes that the TPP protests mark a shift in the political landscape and Key is “preparing to be hissed and booed at every public outing by anti-TPP protesters.”

Increased polarisation

The “increasingly desperate” anger on the far left is largely a manifestation of the failure of left parliamentary parties to offer a credible opposition, argues Geoffrey Miller in New Zealand’s increasingly dangerous level of political vitriol. Miller says the TPP certainly generated a lot of anger on the left, but “another, more deep-seated reason for anger is John Key’s continuing popularity. Anyone who has dipped into the comments section on The Standard, or who follows left-wing activists on Twitter, or reads comments on the various activist Facebook pages knows how central John Key to the discontent.” And that anger can have “a nasty underbelly.”

For an alleged recent example of this, Cameron Slater purports to have found hundreds of toxic comments about John Key on a RNZ Checkpoint Facebook page – see his post: Why are Radio NZ and John Campbell allowing death threats against the Prime Minister? David Farrar was quick to condemn RNZ for allowing the comments to remain online – see: Hate speech on the Radio NZ Checkpoint Facebook page and Further on Radio NZ Facebook page

Danyl Mclauchlan was understandably sceptical, wondering if the comments might have been manufactured. He later concluded they were probably genuine and simply a result of a story going viral and RNZ being unaccustomed to having to moderate comments, rather than being indicative of the state of the left – see: The mysterious case of the hate speech comments on the RNZ Facebook page

For Scott Yorke’s take on it all see his amusing and pointed People have been awful on the internet again

As Miller pointed out, the blogosphere can be a source of extreme opinions. In his end-of-year round up, Martyn Bradbury described John Key’s behaviour as “that of a petulant spoilt bully arsehole” and the PM as “a repugnant human being” with a “callous nature”, “dreadful and deformed”. In a final flourish he concluded: “He’s Donald Trump without the wig” – see: TDB top 5 best and worst politicians of 2015. Even allowing for Bradbury’s customary bombast and colourful turn of phrase, it’s highly emotive language and no doubt Matthew Hooton would diagnose this as a case of full-blown KDS.

Hooton does lay the blame for some of the left’s “extreme” and “unreasonable” anger at Key at the feet of Andrew Little, for his part in a “campaign of deliberate lies over the TPP”  – see Hooton’s comments on Mclauchlan’s The mysterious case of the hate speech comments on the RNZ Facebook page. See also Hooton’s TPP derangement.

Hooton also raises the frustration the left feel over Key’s continued success in the polls. Perhaps that frustration played a part in a recent speech by Green MP Gareth Hughes in which he calls the Prime Minister little more than a “derping, planking, rape-joking expert at getting us on late night American comedy shows” – you can watch the five-minute speech here

The strongly-worded speech – which one news report called “one of the most scathing critiques of John Key’s leadership ever heard in Parliament” – has now been viewed over 36,000 times on YouTube, suggesting the criticisms resonated with a wide audience. Hughes later explained Why I said what I did about John Key.

Problems with Key’s flag referendum

It’s not only the TPP that threatens Key’s aura of invincibility – the looming flag referendum looks set to present a major defeat for the PM. According to Auckland University’s Jennifer Lees Marshment this poses a problem for Key because he has made the flag referendum all about his leadership and legacy – see her six-minute interview with Paul Henry: Key losing his charm – politics professor.

Lees Marshment says that if Key’s bid to change the flag fails, “it’s the first major sign that the public aren’t in line with his leadership.” She doesn’t think it’s a crisis but more of “a chink in his armour – a sign his brand may be starting to decline, along with a few other things that happened over the last year… it’s a sign of the relationship between the prime minister and the public deteriorating”.

Key’s personal stake in the flag referendum is also why Heather du Plessis-Allan declares I blame John Key for this…. She says: “One of the main reasons this flag is being voted down is because it’s his flag… Perhaps, we might have felt like we got what we wanted in a flag, if it felt less like the Prime Minister got exactly what he wanted in a flag.”

And it’s surely Richie McCaw’s perceived closeness to Key that got him more than he bargained for when he said on his Facebook page that he supported a change of flag – see: Claire Trevett’s Richie McCaw should expect criticism over flag opinion – Andrew Little.

For more on how the referendum has become a way to express dissatisfaction with John Key, see Chris Trotter’s Flagging Our Opposition

Personality politics

It could be that John Key is simply becoming less likeable. Certainly there’s an increasing awareness of Key’s tendency to participate in put downs and personal digs at opponents. Earlier in the month the NBR’s Rob Hosking gave Key advice in his paywalled column, What Key must do now, which amounted to: “the prime minister would be advised to keep the trolling to a minimum”. He explained that “Key is inclined to use Parliament primarily as a forum for partisan sledging”, but with increasingly polarised politics he needed to play a role in creating harmony rather than division, in which case Key “would be more prudent to emphasise gravitas”.

NBR subscribers seem to agree with Hosking. A poll showed “more than two-thirds – 69% – of respondents said they would like more substance and less snark from the prime minister while 31% don’t believe he needs to change anything about his approach” – see Nick Grant’s NBR subscribers to PM: Pull your head in (paywalled). 

It is precisely the kind of personality-driven politics John Key indulges in and excels at that is the problem, argues James Robins – see: The Problem with Projectile Politics. Robins writes “Most of the Left’s attacks on the government are pernicious diatribes aimed at the PM. ‘Once a banker, always a banker’ is the catchphrase, its rhyming innuendo never far from mind.” 

But, Robins asks, is it any wonder attacks on politicians are so personal when personality politics are the name of the game in New Zealand: “Politics has always been a battle of personalities, but in recent years morality and ideology have been jettisoned completely.” Robins believes personal attacks are simply following the “pattern set by our leaders” who are happy to use personality politics to get elected and stay in power.

Finally, Andrew Gunn reflects on how the Prime Minister reaps what he sows in his parody Keeping it classy with John Key.

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NewsRoom Digest: Top NZ News Items for February 29 Edition, 2016

Newsroom DigestToday’s edition of NewsRoom_Digest features 5 resourceful links of the day and the politics pulse from Monday 29th February. It is best viewed on a desktop screen.

NEWSROOM_MONITOR 

Noteworthy stories in the current news cycle include: respected academic and writer on Māori issues, Dr Ranginui Walker, passing away at the age of 83; business confidence falling sharply with slumping stock markets and declining dairy prices spooking firms locally; and the minimum wage rate going to increase by 50 cents per hour to $15.25 an hour on 1 April, 2016.

POLITICS PULSE

Media releases issued from Parliament by political parties today 

included:

Government: Scheme helping to staff hard to fill positions; HMNZS Canterbury’s departure for Fiji welcomed; McCully to visit Fiji post Winston; Minister to address UN Human Rights Council; $3.7m available for NZ-China research centres; Honouring a revolutionary of our time; PM acknowledges passing of Dr Ranginui Walker; Honouring a revolutionary of our time;Minimum wage to increase to $15.25; New community barbeque area for family playground

ACT Party: Greens’ hypocritical travel expenses; Leader’s speech to ACT Conference 2016; New Zealand deserves better than timidity and tinkering; Sanctuary Trust would empower non-government conservation; Speech to the 2016 ACT Conference at Orakei Basin

Greens: Taylor interview highlights desperate need for prison transparency; Green Party Encourages New Zealanders To Vote As They Like

Labour: Bonuses for charter schools, deficits for state schools; Pharmac savings not invested in new drugs; School ballot fees undermine free education; Explanation for Defence debacle demanded;Come on, clear your diary Minister; It’s Leap Day: Let’s take a leap forward in the empowerment of women

New Zealand First: Stop Outsiders Voting On the NZ Flag; Regions Miss Out As “King Kong Auckland” Bellows; Speech by New Zealand First Leader and Member of Parliament for Northland Rt Hon Winston Peters; Seymour’s Idea ‘So Old, It Has Flies On It’; Flag Flying Blues Hit Key’s Campaign

LINKS OF THE DAY

CANTERBURY BUILDING CONSENTS DOWN: Canterbury had a fall in building consents for new dwellings in January 2016, Statistics New Zealand said today. More details at: http://bit.ly/1XTTOpX

ECONOMIC INDICATORS: The February Monthly Economic Indicators (MEI) was published today on the Treasury Website.The report provides a summary of recent economic events. Read more at:http://www.treasury.govt.nz/economy/mei/feb16

OTICON FOUNDATION GRANTS: Oticon Foundation made its annual call for grant applications for projects and activities dedicated to improving the lives of Deaf and hard of hearing New Zealanders. The deadline for applications is 31 March 2016. Information on how to apply is available on the Foundation’s website: www.oticon.org.nz

VISITOR ARRIVALS: The latest edition of International Visitor Arrivals to New Zealand (IVA) is now available on the Statistics New Zealand website. Read more:http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/Migration/iva.aspx

VOLUNTEERING REPORT: Volunteering New Zealand announces the results of its inaugural State of the New Zealand Volunteering Sector survey today.The full State of Volunteering Report is available at:http://www.volunteeringnz.org.nz/state-volunteering/

And that’s our sampling of “news you can use” for Monday 29th February .

Newsroom Digest

Brought to EveningReport by Newsroom Digest.

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