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NewsRoom Digest: Top NZ News Items for February 5 Edition, 2016

Newsroom Digest

Today’s edition of NewsRoom_Digest features 6 resourceful link of the day and the politics pulse from Friday 5th February. It is best viewed on a desktop screen.

NEWSROOM_MONITOR

Noteworthy stories in the current news cycle include the Government spending more than $440 million to upgrade near-obsolete combat systems on the Navy’s two frigates, the Minister for Social Housing saying she does not accept eligible families are being turned away from Housing New Zealand, and some Government MPs being advised to close their electorate offices after recent attacks on the offices of senior Government ministers.

POLITICS PULSE

Media releases issued from Parliament by political parties today 

included:

Government: Whitehead report released; Disability Strategy reference group gets to work;ETS Review modelling documents released; Waterview Shared Path construction underway; Appointment of GCSB Acting Director; Interlock devices stopping offenders drink driving

Greens: Report into diplomat debacle shows Ministers’ failures

Labour: Sadness over death of Māori leader; McCully not off hook despite report; Government still won’t come clean on TPPA and Pharmac

Māori Party: Māori Party Farewells A Respected Māori Advocate; Māori Party Mourns The Death Of A Former MWWL National President

New Zealand First: Top Up White Ribbon Funding Now; Southern’s Appalling Meals A Warning For All DHBs

LINKS OF THE DAY

EDUCATION BUILDINGS: The value of building consents for education buildings increased strongly in 2015, Statistics New Zealand said today. Read more:http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/industry_sectors/Construction/BuildingConsentsIssued_HOTPDec15.aspx

EMISSIONS TRADING SCHEME: Three technical documents are being released to help New Zealanders engage with the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) review. The three reports are available at:http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/climate-change/economic-impacts-removing-nz-ets-transitional-measures or http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/climate-change/afforestation-responses-carbon-price-changes-and-market-certainties and http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/climate-change/nz-ets-evaluation-report-2016

MOOD OF THE NATION SURVEY: New Zealand’s teachers and primary schools continue to enjoy very high levels of confidence and respect, according to UMR Research’s latest Mood of the Nation survey. Read more:http://umr.co.nz/sites/umr/files/final_mood_of_the_nation_2015_released_2016_1.pdf

IMPORTANCE OF MARKET DISCIPLINE: The Reserve Bank yesterday published a Bulletin article, ‘The importance of market discipline in the Reserve Bank’s prudential regime’ that argues market discipline is a central and robust component of the Bank’s prudential framework. Click here for more:http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research_and_publications/reserve_bank_bulletin/2016/2016feb79-2.pdf

STRATEGIC STUDIES: Victoria University of Wellington’s Centre for Strategic Studies has been ranked second in all think tanks in Southeast Asia, Australasia and the South Pacific by a prestigious global report. The report is a closely watched annual survey of the work of over 6,000 international think tanks. The full report can be viewed here:http://repository.upenn.edu/think_tanks/10/

WHITEHEAD REPORT RELEASED: The Whitehead Report, into diplomatic immunity issues surrounding Malaysian Defence attache Mohammad Rizalman was released today. Click here for the report:https://www.mfat.govt.nz/assets/_securedfiles/OIA/Ministerial-Enquiry-Whitehead-Report.pdf

And that’s our sampling of “news you can use” for Friday 5th February .

Brought to EveningReport by Newsroom Digest.

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The TPPA and women: spot the difference

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Analysis by Carolyn Skelton. The potential impact off the TPPA on women, especially women of colour, gets very little coverage in the mainstream media. The agreement poses very strong risks for women, who are over-represented in low income jobs and as receivers of state benefits. Sometimes pictures really do tell the story that requires a lot of words to explain. Spot the difference: The feature image from the Malaysian Insider is of the member state representatives who signed the TPPA in Auckland on February 4th [NZ time]. There are two women and 10 men. Trade minister s TPPA Oct 2015 and Jan 2016: [caption id="attachment_8965" align="alignleft" width="351"]0a10370f617200e5 From Auckland News[/caption] [caption id="attachment_8967" align="alignleft" width="342"]Leaders of TPPA member states 2010:L eaders_of_TPP_member_states Leaders from the TPPA member states 2010: From Wikipedia[/caption] [caption id="attachment_8966" align="alignnone" width="364"]b-tpp-a-20160205-870x489 Leaders from the TPPA member states: From Newstalkzb[/caption]   [caption id="attachment_8953" align="alignnone" width="534"]Image by Del Abcede. Image by Del Abcede.[/caption] Compare the gender balance in the above leaders’ photos with that in the photo essay by Del Abcede, of the February 4 protests against the TPPA in Auckland, published on Asia Pacific Report. Women have been playing a strong role in opposing the TPPA, while the people negotiating are largely men, along with those in powerful corporations. This rundown of the TPPA on Scoop, by the US Trade Representative in Oct 2015, has only one specific section referring to women: “… and economic growth, including helping women build capacity and skill, enhancing women’s access to markets, obtaining technology and financing, establishing women’s leadership networks, and identifying best practices in workplace “ The focus is on women in leadership, “markets”, finance-acquisition, and workplace practices. Inequalities in the 21st century result in extreme hardship for mothers of young children, and single mothers. Low paid workers are over-represented by women, and especially women of colour. The US Trade Representative’s press release highlights the TPPA’s provisions for protecting worker rights and labour relations, which are a step in a positive direction: “… a prohibition on the worst forms of child labour; and elimination of discrimination in employment. They also agree to have laws governing minimum wages, hours of work, and occupational safety and health. Each of the 12 TPP Parties commits to ensure access to fair, equitable and transparent administrative and judicial proceedings and to provide effective remedies for violations of its labour laws. They also agree to public participation in implementation of the Labour chapter, including establishing mechanisms to obtain public input.” So far so good. Excellent to see such things get consideration and a positive statement of intent. However, these promises are qualified by this:

The commitments in the chapter are subject to the dispute settlement procedures laid out in the Dispute Settlement chapter.”
Any issues with respect to failure to provide for workers rights as laid out above, are to be dealt with by negotiation between parties. There is not authority with the power to resolve disputes, or hold member states to account in the interest of workers. In contrast, ISDS provisions give powerful international corporations the right to challenge the laws of member states that protect the rights of workers, in the interests of powerful employers. In contrast, a June 2015 advisory for the US National Organisation of Women outlines why the TPPA is a feminist issue. It looks to the impacts of past US trade agreements and identifies a pattern whereby when wages are lowered, women, especially women of colour are hit hard. They tend to work in low pay occupations such as retail, food service, nursing homes and day care. The advisory refers to statements by Senator Elizabeth Warren. The advisory summarizes: “Through a thorough investigation of how the United States implemented the labor provisions of in-place free trade agreements, the Government Accountability Office found “persistent challenges to labor rights, such as limited enforcement capacity, the use of subcontracting to avoid direct employment… [and] violence against union leaders” in many countries with existing agreements. Specifically, the Department of Labor found that ten countries that had free trade agreements with the U.S. (Colombia, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Jordan, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, and Peru) continue to use child labor and force labor to produce their goods, regardless of international laws in place to prevent it. The advisory concludes on the basis of the evidence available, that the TPP will not protect worker’s, especially women workers’ rights, wages will be driven down, unemployment will rise, and there will be less access to affordable health care. The TPPA has largely been negotiated by powerful men and corporations, and it doesn’t look that good for women: especially women of colour and those on low incomes.]]>

Photo Essay: On the streets with the Auckland TPP protesters

Photo-Essay by Del Abcede/PMC/APR. [gallery link="file" size="medium" td_select_gallery_slide="slide" td_gallery_title_input="On the streets with the Auckland TPPA protesters. Photo-essay by Del Abcede." ids="8953,8954,8955,8956,8957,8958,8959"] While trade ministers and representatives from the 12 countries included in the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement gathered to sign the document at SkyCity Grand Hotel and convention centre, tens of thousands took to the streets in opposition to the TPPA. It was one of the largest protests New Zealand has seen since the 1981 Springbok Rugby Tour.]]>

Tony Alexander’s Weekly Economic Overview February 4 2016

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Analysis by BNZ Chief Economist Tony Alexander.

[caption id="attachment_3709" align="alignleft" width="150"]Tony Alexander, BNZ economist. Tony Alexander, BNZ economist.[/caption] Two weeks ago I listed reasons why despite the dairying downturn growth in the NZ economy would remain good especially compared with other countries and this would limit scope for lower interest rates, support jobs growth, and keep the NZD from falling much. This week has brought a surge in others saying the same thing. One trigger was the better than expected labour market numbers yesterday showing a fall in the unemployment rate from 6% to 5.3% and 0.9% jump in jobs in the December quarter despite dairying weakness. Another was the jump in net migration over calendar 2015 to 65,000 or 1.4% of the population from a negative flow during 2012. Regarding interest rates the Reserve Bank Governor yesterday reminded everyone that the RB concentrates not just on the headline inflation rate of 0.1% when setting policy, but core inflation which is currently near 1.6% or so, and issues of financial stability and avoiding volatility. His comments have reduced growing expectations of another rate cut and helped the NZD to end this afternoon two cents higher than a week ago against the Australian and US dollars.

For the full analysis, Download document (pdf 316kb) or continue reading below.

Unemployment Rate The Lowest Since 2008 I started the Overview this year with an article noting that although there are worries offshore we have plenty of things helping support growth in the New Zealand economy, limiting the chances of further interest rate cuts, and keeping the currency well supported. These were the themes repeated strongly this week by many commentators following the good labour market data yesterday and by the Reserve Bank Governor as well. Yesterday we learnt that during the last quarter of 2015 there was a good hike in job numbers around New Zealand of 0.9% or 22,000 people. This followed a 0.5% fall in the September quarter so the result does have an upward bias and it would be best to say that on average last year job numbers grew 0.3% a quarter and this pace was close to sustained in the second half of the year. The unemployment rate interestingly and completely against expectations fell away to 5.3% from 6% in the September quarter and 5.8% a year earlier. In fact the rate is now the lowest since 4.6% at the end of 2008. The decline partly reflects some people leaving the workforce taking the participation rate down a tad to 68.4% from 68.7%. Nonetheless, the result remains a good one which is supportive of good consumer sentiment and household buying.
Compared with a year ago employment in agriculture was down 0.6% but in construction it was up 13.4%, real estate 10.4%, and all industries 1.4%. But yet again there remains zero evidence that the pace of wages growth in New Zealand is accelerating as one would expect to have happened by now were it not for the role of the global financial crisis in changing the way things link economically these days. The wages measure which I use, an analytical series created by Statistics NZ where an attempt is made to strip out changes in work quality and quantity, rose 2.7% over 2015. This was the same pace of change as the year to September and statistically-speaking unchanged from the 2.6% pace of 2014. The rises in 2012 and 2013 were both 3.0% and 2011 was 3.2%. But with inflation at 0.1% that means a 2.6% real wage rise which is brilliant! Hence strength in consumer spending. This means that the Reserve Bank will struggle to look at the fall in the unemployment rate and conclude that wages growth is about to take off. Thus the door remains open for another cut in interest rates though our view is still that they don’t want to cut and will just get by without doing so. This is the case even allowing for the further 7.4% fall in the average dairy auction price this week which raises the chances of Fonterra having to cut this year’s payout forecast again. In fact on Wednesday the Reserve Bank Governor was at pains to stress that although headline inflation is low at just 0.1%, the Policy Targets Agreement requires the RB to take into consideration a lot more than just the main CPI reading when setting monetary policy, that price shocks stemming from the likes of oil price changes can be “looked through”, and that core measures of inflation are close to the mid-point of the target band. Those comments dashed some optimistic expectations out there of another rate cut soon and coming on top of the strong jobs numbers caused a spike in the NZ dollar toward 66.5 cents last night. To repeat, our currency is well supported by non-dairy exports doing well, the domestic economy being assisted by strong construction and migration, and now reductions in expectations of tighter monetary policy in the United States plus the desperation-driven cut in Japan’s key rate to -0.1%. Housing Dwelling supply continues to move upward in Auckland while falling away rapidly now in Christchurch. In the three months to December the number of consents issued for the construction of new dwellings in Auckland was ahead by 24% from a year earlier while for Canterbury there was a decline of 24%. For all the rest of New Zealand there was a rise of 38%. Regional house building is rising strongly which will make boosting Auckland house supply even harder as builders doing the same job for the same wage in the regions will face far lower housing costs for themselves than working in Auckland. For all of 2015 Auckland consents totalled 9,251 which was a strong 23% rise from 2014 and the highest annual total since June 2005. This is good news for Auckland and hopefully this year will bring another 23% rise to 11,400. But while dwelling supply outside Canterbury is growing well, so too is demand. Adding to:
  • the pent-up demand from those people who have after seven years finally given up on expecting house prices to collapse,
  • buyers edging toward minimum deposit requirements, and
  • foreign buyers getting their heads around the very simple bank account, IRD number and bright line text rules,
we have still booming net immigration. In calendar 2015 NZ received a net gain from permanent and long-term migration flows of 64,930 people. This was well above the average net gain of 10,000 people per annum, 2014’s gain of 50,922, and the 2012 loss of 1,165. Over the past year departures have fallen 2.4% after declining 18.3% over 2014 signalling that the decline in you and I leaving is flattening out. But arrivals for the year were up 11.5% after rising 16.3% in 2014, signalling a far slower pace of flattening. Is the net gain slowing down yet? In seasonally adjusted terms we can see some hints of this happening with the annualised net gain for the December quarter at 71,360 from 67,520 in the September quarter and 59,560 in the June quarter. But the numbers are still going up and with Auckland receiving over 60% of the net gain, their 38,900 extra people last year required 13,000 extra houses. Consents for only 9,251 were issued therefore the shortage got worse last year and even much worse than suggested here as natural population growth has not even been taken into account! It is worth noting that according to the realestate.co.nz monthly report the inventory of listings nationwide at the end of January was 31% lower than a year before at 26,832. This represented 14.7 weeks of sales from 21.4 a year ago and shows us how so much stock out in the regions has been soaked up in the past year as buyers have shifted their attention from Auckland. Auckland’s inventory in January was just 13% down from a year earlier and weeks taken to sell a property higher at 10.3 from 9.4. NZ Dollar The Bank of Japan last Friday cut the interest rate banks receive for deposits with the BoJ which has been zero for many years to -0.1%, sending the Yen down and sharemarkets around the world skyward. The move follows the failure of money printing to generate sustained growth in Japan which followed failure of low interest rates to boost growth and failure of ongoing easing of fiscal policy. 90% of printed money is right back with the BoJ as banks find customers have little interest in borrowing more and corporates anyway are sitting on a huge pile of cash already. So the rate cut is very, very unlikely to have any noticeable impact on Japanese growth. The relevance for us is some extra strength in the NZD against the Yen and we have risen to 78.6 from 76.4 last Thursday. This rise however mainly reflects the NZD’s jump against the USD to 66.8 cents from 66.4 as the markets have reacted to NZ’s good employment data and comments from the RB Governor dampening down expectations of further monetary policy easing in NZ. This change in view also accounts for us rising back up against the AUD to 93.2 from 91.6 meaning the NZD is back where it was a fortnight ago. You will find current spot rates here.  If I Were A Borrower What Would I Do? Fix three years at 4.49%. Simple as that, but leave a proportion floating to allow flexibility for early repayment. Chances are good that the RB will not cut the cash rate again unless things turn to custard offshore, and while our official view is they start raising it late next year the risk is no move before 2018. For Noting A couple of weeks ago I noted the business opportunity available of buying Nespresso coffee capsules in Australia and selling them in New Zealand. The people from Muzzbuzz kindly sent me some of their capsules which cost 75 cents each postage free for three boxes of ten (even lower for boxes of 50) versus just over $1.00 for each Nespresso capsule bought instore. The taste is good and you might like to check them out at www.muzzbuzz.co.nz
The Weekly Overview is written by Tony Alexander, Chief Economist at the Bank of New Zealand. The views expressed are my own and do not purport to represent the views of the BNZ. To receive the Weekly Overview each Thursday night please sign up at www.tonyalexander.co.nz To change your address or unsubscribe please click the link at the bottom of your email. Tony.alexander@bnz.co.nz
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NewsRoom Digest: Top NZ News Items for February 4 Edition, 2016

Newsroom Digest

Today’s edition of NewsRoom_Digest features 1 resourceful link of the day and the politics pulse from Thursday 4th February. It is best viewed on a desktop screen.

NEWSROOM_MONITOR

Noteworthy stories in the current news cycle include the Ministers from 12 countries signing the Trans-Pacific Partnership this morning, security at Waitangi being elevated this year, and Iwi leaders urging the Crown to wait for the Waitangi Tribunal to make a call on who can change Maori land laws before making any alterations.

POLITICS PULSE

Media releases issued from Parliament by political parties today 

included:

Government: Trans-Pacific Partnership signed in Auckland; TPP overwhelmingly positive for NZ – PM; Exciting Mānuka honey scheme launched; Action plan to help grow Northland; $4 million for Hundertwasser Centre; Pacific employment at all-time high;Cruise ship tourism in a league of its own; Travel responsibly this Waitangi weekend; Lyttelton Port development connecting NZ traders to the world

ACT Party: TPP protesters embarrass New Zealand and themselves

Greens: Full report into Malaysian diplomat debacle must be released immediately; TPPA clashes with human rights and international law

Labour: Joyce’s claims hollow after cuts to tertiary education; TPP signing highlights divisions in NZ

New Zealand First: West Coast Towns Paying Price For Police Underfunding; Māori Fishing Rights Undermined, Māori Party Silent

NZ National Party: Trans-Pacific Partnership good news for Wellington and New Zealand; 65 Wellington Region Schools To Serve Kickstart Breakfasts This Term

United Future Party:

LINKS OF THE DAY

NORTHLAND ACTION PLAN: The Tai Tokerau Northland Economic Action Plan is part of the Government’s Regional Growth Programme, which is increasing jobs, income and investment in regional New Zealand. Read more:http://www.mbie.govt.nz/info-services/sectors-industries/regions-cities/regional-growth-programme/northland

And that’s our sampling of “news you can use” for Thursday 4th February .

Brought to EveningReport by Newsroom Digest.

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Across the Ditch: TPP Signing + Protests Today + Waitangi Day + NZ Beat Aust in Cricket

In this edition of Across the Ditch, Peter Godfrey of Australia’s radio FiveAA and Selwyn Manning of EveningReport.nz discuss: The New Zealand Government will host the representatives of twelve Trans Pacific Partnership nations today for the signing of the TPP agreement at Auckland’s Skycity. Police have been training with riot gear and protests are organised where people will march up Queen Street in Auckland’s CBD and another shadowy group is committed to direct action. Waitangi Day: Also discussed, New Zealand Aotearoa will commemorate the signing of the Treaty of Waitangi back in 1840. Controversy this year has framed the event over whether the Prime Minister John Key will be welcome at Waitangi with Maori and many other groups angry that the Government failed to consult over the TPP negotiations. Cricket Chappell-Hadlee ODI: Also, New Zealand’s Blackcaps Cricket team beat World Champions Australia by 159 runs in the first of the three Chappell-Hadlee one day international games at Auckland’s Eden Park.Now all the attention has shifted to the second match scheduled for Saturday at Wellington’s Westpac Trust Stadium.

Across the Ditch broadcasts live on Australia’s radio FiveAA.com.au and webcasts on EveningReport.nz LiveNews.co.nz and ForeignAffairs.co.nz.

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NewsRoom Digest: Top NZ News Items for February 3 Edition, 2016

Newsroom Digest

Today’s edition of NewsRoom_Digest features 3 resourceful links of the day and the politics pulse from Wednesday 3rd February. It is best viewed on a desktop screen.

NEWSROOM_MONITOR

Noteworthy stories in the current news cycle include the Prime Minister confirming he will be going to Waitangi this year, official figures showing the unemployment rate is the lowest it’s been in more than six years, and groups opposed to the Trans-Pacific Partnership gearing up for large protests against the signing of the deal at Sky City in Auckland tomorrow.

POLITICS PULSE

Media releases issued from Parliament by political parties today 

included:

Government: High Commissioner to Canada announced; Beach to become public land if appeal succeeds; Speech: Peter Dunne -Address to Digital Leaders Annual Lecture;School Network Upgrade Project completed;Speech to Viet Nam – New Zealand Business Forum on TPP;Unemployment figure lowest in seven years;New features in store for popular playground; Racing Safety Development Fund open for applications

Labour: Labour Urges Talley’s To End AFFCO Lockout;Worksafe needs to toughen up on farm deaths;No room for complacency in volatile 2016;Arrogant Government not above the law

New Zealand First: Kiwirail To Use Rubber Bridge To Replace Iron Bridge Across Cook Strait;Disappearing Post Boxes Add To Flag Vote Farce; Global Dairy Trade Falls In Absence Of Government’s Leadership; Another Blue For National’s Flag; Further Cuts To Health Bad News For Kiwis

LINKS OF THE DAY

INTERNATIONAL VISITOR ARRIVALS: The latest edition of International Visitor Arrivals to New Zealand (IVA) is now available on the Statistics New Zealand website. Read more:http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/Migration/iva.aspx

RACING FUND: The next round of applications for the Racing Safety Development Fund has now opened. On-line applications must be submitted by 31 March 2016. Further information is available from:http://www.communitymatters.govt.nz

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: The unemployment rate fell to 5.3 percent in the December 2015 quarter (from 6.0 percent), according to Statistics New Zealand. Click here for more: http://bit.ly/1QFEzOi

And that’s our sampling of “news you can use” for Wednesday 3rd February .

Brought to EveningReport by Newsroom Digest.

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Bowie Retrospective part 3: feminism, music an a’ that

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Feature by Carolyn Skelton. For many LGBTI people, and others feeling alienated from today’s society, David Bowie’s innovative performance and music struck a chord. As I said in my previous pieces, he was not the only one who provided such connections and inspiration. Bowie’s song “Rebel, rebel” celebrates androgyny as an act of rebellion. https://youtu.be/eF551z9KlA8 The increasingly fragmented music scenes since the 1970s include a complex tapestry of mainstream and alternative influences. The 2nd wave women’s movement was in full swing when Bowie first came to prominence in the UK in the 1970s. UK Women’s Liberationists were both influenced by and reacted against the mainstream music industry. This resulted in a lot of the music of the UK movement seeming to be lost to posterity. Bowie’s name was mentioned several times in the 1970s and 80s Women’s Liberation magazine, Spare Rib [searchable archives of the magazine here]. They are mostly positive, especially with respect to his androgynous style. Articles tend to value the way Bowie challenged the aggressive masculine posturing that had become quite dominant in mainstream rock music. A 1973 article reports on a concert at Earls Court with a photo of Bowie dressed only in his undies, and says: Who can explain the phenomenon of this frail androgyne… It is known that he’s not at all well, but sadly it seems he’s made his choice and opted for a meteoric existance. ” The monthly magazine also focuses on women’s music and the fact that female androgyny and drag kings, didn’t get as much attention as male performances of androgyny, as mentioned in this 1983 article. In recent decades, NZ’s Topp Twins have also done a fair amount of political, songs as well as some gender bending and androgyny. [caption id="attachment_8854" align="alignleft" width="300"]The Topp Twins 2 From CranesAreFlying blog[/caption]     https://youtu.be/ULLnrJsA6CY A 1979 Spare Rib article by Lucy Toothpaste, is critical of the way rock music is dominated by the macho posturing and misogynist lyrics of “cock rock”, while women artistes are promoted or tolerated so long as they are not too threatening to the gender status quo. Consequently, according to Toothpaste, many feminist musicians prefer jazz, folk, funk or other less macho forms, and reject the commercial music scene. However, Toothpaste also argues that rock has “an energy and enthusiasm” that is “potentially subversive”. See for instance X-Ray Spex’s late 1970s, Oh Bondage Up Yours: https://youtu.be/ogypBUCb7DA The Spare Rib archives provide valuable evidence of the alternative women’s music scene that existed in the 1970s and early 1980s in London. Women’s liberation musicians tended reject individualism and the promotion of stars, as well as having a collaborative approach. This can be seen in the linked 1983 article about the Holloway Allstars, a group of men and women which included musicians from some all women bands like Sisterhood of Spit. Members of these bands include Lydia D’Usteybyn and Laka D’Asical – pseudonyms, probably thumbing their noses equally at pretentious style and patriarchal naming practices, and that would not be out of place in some 21st century online forums. A video of the Holloway Allstars: https://youtu.be/fOW_xE15bxo Guest stars was a women’s band that included some of the same women mentioned in the above linked article. They are seen here promoting a reunion performance in 2013: https://youtu.be/OQPwViZjSgs This Spare Rib page of 1983, refers to a Guest Stars Gig and a benefit for Greenham Common. In the 70s and 80s, it is likely that the unwillingness to embrace both gendered and corporate dominated music trends rendered them unappealing to many outside the women’s movement. If not for the following website, most of this music would now be lost: Women’s Liberation Music Archive: feminist music making in the UK and Ireland in the 1970s and 1980sThe page at this link provides details about Sisterhood of Spit, which included some of the Guest Stars’ line-up and a link to the audio file of one of their songs. The archives show much of the socialist themes running through the 70s and 80s UK music scene, from songs and/or gigs in support of the miners’ strike, and the protests against the US nuclear base at Greenham Common, to Carol Grimes, Mau Mau song that critiques European imperialism. Grimes performed with mixed male and female bands, plus some of the continually morphing women only bands.  The soundcloud has audio of Bad Habits’ Greenham song, which has a Reggie beat: Increasingly in the 80s, Thatcherism deliberately undermined the strong grassroots, left wing and alternative networks in UK cities. At the same time, in the mainstream entertainment industry, and girl-power style appropriated elements of feminism. Queer style and a sexualised form of female empowerment became highly sale-able, as seen with Madonna. Here Madonna pays homage to Bowie and his influence on her by performing “Rebel, Rebel”: https://youtu.be/lnBwJQnHH8o In the article by Lucy Toothpaste linked above, she identifies the appropriating processes of the mainstream music industry as seen in the 1970s. Since then, the corporate dominated media became ever more sophisticated in appropriating rebellion. They sell it back to the people as fashion, and as accessories to individualised identities. So, where to now for music and cultural productions generally that challenge the status quo, socially and politically?]]>

Bryce Edwards’ Political Roundup: Catching up with the National Party

Former New Zealand prime minister Sir John Key, (right) with former US president, Barak Obama pictured on the golf course in Hawaii. Key is currently ANZ New Zealand's chairperson.

Analysis by Dr Bryce Edwards.

Where is the National Government going in 2016? Recent speeches and articles suggest they’re heading in the same successful direction, albeit without necessarily achieving anything of great substance. 

National is now in the middle of its third term – a time that many have observed is traditionally characterised by arrogance, stale thinking and error. While there have been glimpses of this in recent times, particularly in the scandals that have dogged this Government, we are still looking at a party enjoying strong popularity, with seemingly no end in sight. This is largely due to a popular and populist leader, and Key’s pragmatism and ideological flexibility is a theme that comes up often in the following 21 items about National from the summer period.

1) Last week John Key gave his eighth state of the Nation speech as Prime Minister. Its major announcements were aimed at the third of New Zealand’s voters who live in Auckland and, true to form, involved policy co-option and a blatant U-turn over Auckland’s public transport. In a paywalled column for the NBR, Matthew Hooton argues that the Auckland rail decision reveals generational change in National

Hooton declared it a “win for the cosmopolitan wing of the National Party” – epitomised by Simon Bridges and Nikki Kaye – who “understand that mass rapid transit is at the heart of how global centres of capitalism thrive.” This is in contrast to long-time Ministers such as Gerry Brownlee and Steven Joyce who Hooton characterises as the provincial old guard who “see something a bit socialist about people sharing a train.” 

Hooton promotes the policy announcement as a “massive political achievement” for Simon Bridges in convincing Key to side with him against the “passionate and personable” Brownlee and “cold and calculating” Joyce, who merely “saw Auckland’s City Rail Link (CRL) as costing $1 billion per station.” Of course he notes that the U-turn is also about strategic electoral calculations and that is where the pragmatism of Key and Joyce comes into play: “There is an Auckland council election this year and Mr Key wants light-blue centrists to win a majority.  He has no intention of allowing Labour’s Phil Goff to campaign on rapid transit.”

2) Tim Watkin also makes this point in The lame duck wins the day for Auckland, saying there are “numerous” reasons for this major U-turn but, “Most obviously, Key and Joyce are not ones to stay on the wrong side of public opinion for too long, and their unpopular position put a fourth term at risk. Elections are largely won and lost in Auckland, and they had come to be seen as the men standing in the way of progress on Auckland’s second biggest gripe – congestion.” 

3) Fran O’Sullivan is unimpressed with National’s conduct over the rail link, and she suggests that Auckland business leaders are hardly ecstatic with Key’s reluctant fillip two years too late. O’Sullivan also says local body election considerations drove the decision, which “had the potential to spill over into the 2017 national elections”. She accuses National of allowing “its concerns over Len Brown’s leadership to spill over to poison decision-making.” 

4) National’s U-turn over the Auckland rail link is vintage Key, according to Duncan Garner, who says Flexible principles help Key, while Labour continues to flounder: “On many occasions he’s late to the party, often he’s dragged kicking and screaming, but he gets there and the polls confirm the public are OK with that. And it’s this appearance of flexibility that is safely keeping him ensconced in office. Take the massive $2.5 billion rail tunnel under Auckland’s CBD. It was Len Brown’s baby and Labour and the Greens wanted it. Key and a swathe of senior ministers scoffed at it, rubbished it, questioned it, said it wasn’t necessary.  But its time has come and Key’s not worried about re-writing history. He doesn’t care.  This week it was his idea and he wrote out a $1.25b cheque to help the project on its way. Remarkable really.”

Garner says that Key has stolen so many policies from other parties he “should really be arrested for theft as a servant”, but because Key “largely tacks Left”, it works.

5) But will it keep working? Despite any number of potential challenges around the economy and issues such as the TPP, the Dominion Post editorial is forced to conclude that The politics of Groundhog Day look set to continue into 2016. This means “there is really only one live question in New Zealand politics: when does Groundhog Day end?”

6) Vernon Small writes that “Are we there yet” is “the back-seat sound track of the summer break” but it’s also the refrain from the Opposition as they wonder “when bad news begins to stick to Teflon John Key, when the public falls out of love with his style and the voters get tired of the status quo and start casting around for alternatives. After seven years of Key and National, will familiarity start to breed contempt?” – see: The economy trumps TPP, flag referendum as political year gets into gear

Small says that water rights are a potential issue of public disquiet but even so will not be an exploitable one for the Opposition. He concludes that with no sign of waning popularity and National seemingly unaffected by the TPP and flag referendum “The biggest pressure point for the Government is, perhaps as always, the economy and specifically unemployment.”

7) Audrey Young’s verdict on the State of the Nation speech was that Key uses tried and true formula in attempting to set the political agenda: “if in doubt, announce a rail or road project, or preferably both. And just to be sure, re-announce a project or two.”

8) National will continue to face a major problem with the Auckland housing market this year. Sam Sachdeva provides a summary of National and Labour’s views on the issue in Rising housing prices in 2015 put pressure on politicians.

9) Based on an interesting interview with the Minister of Finance, Richard Harman has published an important article on How Bill English undermines Labour. It concentrates on National’s social policy reform, with English declaring it a huge success in terms of making meaningful reform as well as strategically improving his party’s electoral positioning. His social investment approach, together with welfare reform, has “probably saved between $700 million and a billion over what the Government thought welfare would cost four years ago” says English. And English believes he’s achieved a major change in the way the bureaucracy works. Electorally, he says “At the margins It’s worth 2 -3% to us, I reckon, in 2017.” This is because the social investment reforms have pulled the rug out from beneath the political left, as he argues the significant achievements made by National means the left can no longer attack it.

10) Auckland University sociologist Louise Humpage has a new book out, “Policy change, public attitude and social citizenship: Does neoliberalism matter?” which examines public attitudes to some of the policy areas National is pushing reform in – see her summary of this in Public Views on Privatising Social Policy. She warns the Government “that New Zealand attitudes towards the role of government have not changed as much as we might expect.”

11) John Key has now confirmed that he will be seeking re-election next year – see his interview with Audrey Young: Key sets eyes on a fourth term. In this, Key also responds for the first time to the controversy about his “prison rape joke” radio appearance before Christmas – Young reports Key’s observation of the soap-drop situation: “He said he had not known what the context was around the reference. And in fact when the host dropped the soap, he had said it had been in the toilet.” The PM confirmed that he will continue to appear on such shows: “I’m not going to stop going on commercial radio stations because, in the end, that has been an important way for me to communicate with a broad audience, some of whom are only very tangentially interested in politics.”

12) Has John Key achieved any meaningful change as prime minister? Colin James suggests not in his column, What’s in a legacy? Substance. Does Key cut it? James says that the real reforms have been driven by English, and beyond “symbolic gestures”, Key hasn’t done much for history to remember him by. This is essentially because Key is still driven by his “currency trader” style in which the “I’ll be gone, you’ll be gone” mantra about the future still prevails. Therefore “Key is a man of the moment, not burdened with a sense of history or strategy for the future”. Nonetheless, James suggests that Key still has the opportunity to turn his supposed concern for disadvantaged children into substantive change.

13) Who will eventually replace John Key as leader? Duncan Garner puts forward his educated guesses in his column, Forget Crusher, Paula Bennett is National’s next leader. His five picks are: Paula Bennett, Jonathan Coleman, Amy Adams, Simon Bridges, and Todd Muller. He dismisses the notion of Judith Collins having any chance, and says that Steven Joyce and Bill English could only serve as caretaker leaders. Clearly Bennett is the frontrunner, and Garner says “From a single mum on welfare to National’s next leader – Labour eat your heart out.”

14) Jonathan Coleman’s chances of leadership are also explored by Richard Harman in The rise and rise of Jonathan Coleman. Coleman suggests he has high ambitions, also pointing to the portfolios of finance and foreign affairs as ones he’d like to pick up in the future. But mostly the interview concentrates on his performance in the health portfolio, in which he is resolutely pragmatic, promising no significant reform or increased private sector involvement. 

15) National backbencher Todd Muller gets more attention in Richard Harman’s profile on him titled Jim Bolger inspires National’s new conservatives. Obviously in the mould of Bill English, this supposedly up-and-coming star professes to having been burnt by National’s previously ideological struggles in the 1990s and this informs his highly pragmatic approach. 

16) Key could eventually be replaced, at least in his electorate, by Auckland city councillor Cameron Brewer according to Harman – see: Lining up to replace Key. According to Harman, Brewer “is expected to announce shortly that he will not seek re-election next year.

He is believed to be planning to shift to Helensville as part of a bid to replace John Key when he retires – as many believe he will – during the next Parliamentary term”. This shift will apparently “open the way for Desley Simpson, wife of National Party President, Peter Goodfellow, to become the Orakei Ward councillor.”

17) The matter of Key’s succession is also surveyed by The Press in its editorial, Is John Key as a fourth-term prime minister a good idea for National? Paula Bennett is singled out as being groomed for the role by Key. The editorial also raises the interesting question of when Key might resign if he wins next year: “If Key does lead National to its fourth successive victory, it will then become a question of when he might stand aside. Would it be within a few months of the election or as late as possible? That last strategy runs the risk of locking a leader into the next election campaign and yet another possible term as prime minister. Voters will need to know how far into that fourth term he might stay as leader.”

18) For the most thoughtful and researched article about the state of National, albeit in the country’s biggest city, see Simon Wilson’s latest Metro article on line, Can the National Party win back Auckland?

19) While John Key spent Christmas in Maui, Sam Sachdeva caught up with several of his colleagues. He reports on Steven Joyce’s summer of horse rides and vege gardens and says that Nikki Kaye divided her time between Ponsonby and a Costa Rican “road trip” with a mate – see: ACC Minister Nikki Kaye talks about her Costa Rican summer holiday. For David Farrar’s blog posts about the South American trip see Costa Rica

20) One of the Government’s top spin-doctors has resigned. Phil Kitchin, formerly a leading investigative reporter, took up a job in Paula Bennett’s office a year ago, but has “unexpectedly resigned” according to Stacey Kirk – see: Top government spin doctor to Paula Bennett resigns. She comments that “It leaves Bennett down a senior media advisor in a year where social housing issues are expected to heat up, as the Government looks to enact controversial policy built around transferring state houses to social providers and provide subsidised rents.”

21) Finally, for humour about the National Government’s enduring popularity, see Guy Williams’ John Key is a genius… and I hate it, and for a lampooning of National’s U-turn on Auckland’s City Rail Link, see Hayden Donnell’s A brief history of National MPs trashing the rail link they just funded.

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Bryce Edwards’ Political Roundup: Labour’s return to radicalism

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Analysis by Dr Bryce Edwards.

[caption id="attachment_4808" align="alignleft" width="150"]Dr Bryce Edwards. Dr Bryce Edwards.[/caption]

Labour’s bold new “free tertiary education” announcement constitutes its most leftwing policy for decades. And not only is it a radical policy shift for the party, it says a lot about the interesting political ideology of the times.

Labour’s biggest shift to the left in decades seems to be resonating. By and large the reaction has been extraordinarily positive, for what is an incredibly contentious policy. Of course many on the political right have come out strongly against the whole concept, but on the whole there has been a surprising amount of praise for the radical new policy. For an array of interesting reactions and debate, see my blog post, Top tweets about Andrew Little’s State of the Nation speech.

Upon hearing the announcement, many journalists tweeted about how radical the move was. For example, Sam Sachdeva ‏(@SamSachdevaNZ) said “Whether you like it or not, Labour’s policy certainly meets the ‘go big or go home’ test”, Rebecca Wright (‏@rebeccawright) exclaimed “Labour’s out of the gate with a banggggggg & it’s not even election year!” and Jessica McAllen ‏(@Jess_McAllen) tweeted, “Labour this is H U G E”.

Leftwing political activists were particularly joyful – Jarred Griffiths ‏(@jarredgriffiths) tweeted: “Bold, future-focused and progressive. Welcome back @nzlabour, I’ve missed you.” Education analyst Ben Guerin (‏@bjhguerin) said “Got to give Little credit, free tertiary education is a big, ambitious policy. Something Labour hasn’t had since before 2008.”

In the leftwing blogosphere, there were plenty of jubilant posts. Unionist Stephanie Rodgers declared it “a pretty tremendous announcement” – see: Three free years. She also thought that the policy heralded the start of a new radicalism for Labour: “if Labour builds on this across its portfolios – social development, healthcare, justice – it has the beginnings of a bold, compelling set of ideas to take into the 2017 election.  Labour in 2016 is not afraid to look to the left, change the conversation, and dare National to follow their lead.  It’s exactly what they’ve needed. Long may it continue.”

Martyn Bradbury praised Andrew Little, saying “Labour look like they stand for something real and he did it by not becoming all doom and gloom. It was solution based policy that has a real impact on voters lives. It was bold and shows a Leader who is feeling so much more confident after the TPPA decision” – see: Rating the 4 States of the Nation.

And on The Standard, Anthony Robins said the policy “isn’t perfect but it’s a great start, a move towards addressing the injustice of inter-generational debt” – see: Another policy to be proud of.

The most interesting analysis of the new policy in the leftwing blogosphere came in Danyl Mclauchlan’s Notes on Labour’s free tertiary education policy. He records his agreement with the policy, raising questions only about the strategic intelligence: “I would have thought that one of the big negative impressions/barriers to voting that people have about the Labour Party is profligacy. ‘Borrow and spend’. All that core National messaging stuff. So launching a big ticket billion dollar policy right at the start of the years seems risky to me.  It will be wildly, insanely popular with the activist left though. Most of them were involved in student politics and student unions (like Andrew Little) and protested against the fees and loan policies in the 1990s (or subsequently) and for them free tertiary education is a defining political issue.”

A positive media reaction

If praise from the left isn’t surprising, then the generally positive response from political journalists should be. Mostly the media pronounced the radical policy to be a strong one. TV3’s Patrick Gower awarded it an “A” – see: Good marks for Labour’s new tertiary education policy. He declared it “one of the better policy announcements I’ve seen Labour make in quite some time” and said “the policy wasn’t full of holes like many of the Labour policy shockers of recent times.”

Gower could see how the policy could be electorally successful for Labour: “Labour is aiming this at some crucial target markets – obviously students, but also their middle class, centre-voter parents worried about the costs their kids face.  This obviously comes straight out of Helen Clark’s interest-free student loans playbook and is aimed at grabbing the attention of those centre voters who shifted to John Key and never came back.”

The Herald’s Audrey Young also thinks the policy “will be popular” – see: A vow, a hope and a prayer. She has more praise for it, saying “It shows Labour has a plan at a time of rising insecurity over the future of work. It comes out of the work finance spokesman Grant Robertson is doing on the future of work, including work over the summer break in Europe, and there will be much more to come. If it is a bribe, it will be a deeply researched one, not just policy on the hoof.” And on the cost of the policy, Young says, it’s “not unrealistic.”

Parallels have been drawn with Labour’s electorally-successful 2005 interest-free student loans policy – notably by Vernon Small in his column, Labour looking to the past to plan the future? Small sees this policy as also having potential: “it will likely have the generational cross-over appeal that characterised the 2005 promise. It is not just students who want to see lower fees and small debt burdens; their parents and grandparents also see student debt as an impediment to house-buying and family forming – and in the past even as a reason their families were split by outward migration.  After Little’s “year of consolidation” in 2015, it is the first big policy in what he has promised will be a year of policy and ideas.”

Small also emphasises how the policy will have positive internal benefits for Labour: “If nothing else, what the Labour leader called his ‘big Little policy’ should allow Labour to shift the debate onto its own ground and lift the mood among the activist base – spirits that well-needed a fill up after the party’s Trans-Pacific Partnership cluster failure last week.”

Long-time politics watcher Richard Harman also sees the policy winning votes and helping differentiate Labour, as it “sets up a simple contest at the next election – National will be offering tax cuts (modest ones, says Finance spokesman, Bill English) whilst Labour will be offering its education and retraining.  If, as looks likely, unemployment is still high in 2017, Labour’s policy might find a surprising amount of support” – see: Andrew Little goes on the front foot. Harman views the announcement as “part of a much bigger redefinition of the party’s economic policies.”

Criticisms from the right

The strongest criticism from the political right is encapsulated in David Farrar’s blog post, Labour goes even further left, in which he declares “This is a very very bad policy. Not a moderately bad policy, but a really really bad policy”. He calls it “a remarkable lunge to the left. They’ve adopted what was a fringe Alliance Party policy.”

Farrar puts forward five basic arguments against the policy, which he summarises: “Cost massively more than $1.2 billion a year; Incentivise lower quality courses; Help the most wealthy; Is not targeted to those most needing assistance; Has a huge opportunity cost”.

For similar arguments, see also Geoff Simmons’ Free Tertiary Education – Helping the Poor or Middle Class Welfare?

Matthew Hooton has been at the forefront of criticisms. Once it was announced Hooton ‏(@MatthewHootonNZ) tweeted: “.@AndrewLittleMP announces higher taxes will fund free sociology BAs for everyone”.

He actually forecast the announcement on his RNZ Politics commentary slot last Monday. And today he argued over the policy again in the 23-minute discussion on the week in politics – listen: Political commentators Matthew Hooton and Stephen Mills.

Tertiary education minister, Steven Joyce has been leading the attack for the Government, and his criticisms of the policy can be read in RNZ’s Labour’s education plan a desperate throwback, says Joyce. He puts forward an “equity” argument against free education: “Don’t forget that when people graduate they earn a significant income premium, so it actually would increase inequity and inequality because you would be asking the builders and the plumbers to pay more for the education of the lawyers, the accountants and the doctors.”

Responding to such criticism, Labour Party spin-doctor Rob Salmond has blogged, Protesting too much: responses to Labour’s new tertiary policy

Despite the harsh criticisms from National, there’s some speculation about when and how National might emulate the policy. Leftwing activist Bayden Harris ‏(@BaydenHarris) tweeted, “If History is anything to go by, National will implement a watered down version of today’s policy announcement in three years.” 

Others have written along similar lines. In the NBR, Chris Keall discusses Labour’s unusual strategy of releasing the policy so far out from an election, warning that “National now has time to gauge reaction and, if necessary (and you couldn’t rule it out given its track record) co-opt the policy” – see: Labour’s multi-billion free tertiary education policy called a ‘poorly-targeted bribe’.

And also in the NBR, Rob Hosking writes “National will wind up pinching the policy or, at least, the best bits of it.  Of course it will. That is in the fine tradition of conservative governments everywhere, and certainly of this one” – see his paywalled column, Little’s free tertiary education move: where’s the rest of it? 

Criticisms from the left

Not all of the left are uncritical of the new policy. The general tenor of complaints is that the policy doesn’t go far enough. It’s the slow timeframe for implementing the policy that John Minto dislikes: “This means only those children aged under seven now will get the maximum three years fully funded tertiary education when they leave school in 2025.  And what renders the policy as a package almost meaningless is that Labour would have to win three elections in a row to even get the policy up to full speed” – see: Labour targets the under-sevens with its tertiary education fees policy.

New Zealand First activist Curwin Ares Rolinson argues that “Labour’s announcement of three years’ free tertiary education by 2025 isn’t quite the unprecedented ‘game-changer’ some are making it out to be” – see: Labour’s Three Free Years Of Tertiary Education – A Critical Appraisal. He suggests that the party needs to adopt more progressive policies on student loans and allowances. 

There are others worried that Labour’s policy doesn’t go far enough. For example the lobby group that represents all universities, Universities New Zealand, has hesitated to support the policy until Labour promises to also increase funding to the institutions – see Kirsty Johnston’s Labour free study plan worries unis.

Economist Ganesh Nana is also quoted as seeing no problems with the policy, but noting that it raised questions about how Labour would raise the additional revenue required. 

One blogger at The Standard thinks that such money could be better directed at families with children, and primary schools. – see: So, how would you spend $1.2B per year?

Another leftwing critique has been raised on Facebook by Labour Party activist and former election candidate Patrick Hine, who is unconvinced that the policy adequately covers those who will need to retrain in the future, long after they have undertaken tertiary education: “Now I don’t want to be a spoilsport, but Labour’s policy was presented in Andrew Little’s speech as originating in the economic policy context of the Future of Work Commission and aimed at people who have had jobs and lost them because of changing technology, outdated skills etc. But if you’re 40 now and the skills you learned doing that polytechnic certificate 20 years ago are obsolete, you won’t be eligible under the policy. Anybody who has undergone tertiary education in the past will be ineligible. Many of the people it professes to be for won’t be eligible for it. It’s a free tertiary education policy mainly directed at 18-20 year olds – why not argue for it as such? Others will quickly interpret it that way anyway.”

Grant Robertson has replied to this criticism to say that Labour has further announcements to come that will deal with this problem. 

Regardless, it seems that Labour’s promise of radicalism could finally be coming to fruition under new leader Andrew Little. He might actually turn out to be more radical in substance than even David Cunliffe who was strong in terms of radical rhetoric. 

For the first time in years, Labour is leading the policy debate rather than just responding to National. This is the strong point made today by Auckland University Students Association president, Will Matthews in his blog post, Trailblazing. He says the new policy “could give the party the first big lead it’s had over National (and the Greens, to be honest) in 8 years. Not a polling lead, but a lead in policy. Labour has spent so long trailing after National in most policy areas, offering plenty of criticism but very little initiative”. 

No doubt, Labour’s bold shift with this policy reflects a wider Western revival in leftwing radicalism. It could be that Labour and Little have begun to “Feel the Bern” – the phrase used about the wave of enthusiasm for Bernie Sanders in the US at the moment – see Chris Trotter’s Andrew Little’s Labour: two steps forward, one step back.

Trotter says that the new policy is ironic because it “could be interpreted as an ideological slap in the face” for Phil Goff, the man Little has been at loggerheads with about the TPP, and the Minister of Education who brought in student fees in 1990. 

It’s now a world away from then and the decades that followed, in which free tertiary education has been regarded as beyond the pale for mainstream politics. Tertiary education fees have been seen as a core part of the neoliberal project in New Zealand. So for the free education debate to return, suddenly, says much about the flux of politics at the moment. This new policy reflects the interesting times that we are now living in. The cosy consensus politics of the 1990s and 2000s have broken down, with many of the old policy assumptions now under challenge. 

Finally, although Labour’s radical new policy is being hailed as a “blast from the past”, there was in fact much interest in the idea at the 2014 general election, partly because the Internet Mana Party was campaigning on it. For this reason, TVNZ undertook some public polling on the issue during the election campaign, and found that 53 per cent of respondents thought the Government should restore free tertiary education, compared to just 32 per cent who didn’t – see Kate Chapman’s Vote Compass: Support for free tertiary education. And, also from that time, Andrew Chen wrote an in-depth evaluation of the policy – see: A Policy A Day: Free Tertiary Education

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