Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Koval, Associate Professor of Psychology, The University of Melbourne

Apple’s iOS 17 operating system is expected to drop any day. The software update comes with several new features, including a tool for daily mood and emotion logging – a technique known to emotion researchers as “experience sampling”.

Although there are caveats, certain mental health studies have shown that regularly recording one’s feelings can be useful. However, given the vast amount of health data Apple already harvests from customers, why does it also want to record their subjective feelings? And how helpful might this be for users?

How it works

With the latest software update, Apple’s in-built Health app will allow iPhone, iPad and Apple Watch users to record how they feel on a sliding scale from “very unpleasant” to “very pleasant”.

Users will then select from a list of adjectives to label their feelings and indicate which factors – including health, fitness, relationships, work, money and current events – have most influenced how they feel.

The goal is to give users daily and weekly summaries of their feelings, alongside data on factors that may have influenced them. Apple claims this will help users “build emotional awareness and resilience”.

Why does Apple care about our feelings?

Apple already collected copious amounts of health data prior to this update. The iPhone is equipped with an accelerometer, gyroscope, light meter, microphone, camera and GPS, while the Apple Watch can also record skin temperature and heart rate. Why does Apple now want users to log how they feel as well?

Driven by a range of potential applications – from fraud detection to enhanced customer experience and personalised marketing – the emotion detection and recognition industry is projected to be worth US$56 billion (A$86.9 billion) by 2024. And Apple is one of numerous technology companies that have invested in trying to detect people’s emotions from sensor recordings.

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Imagine if technology could read and react to our emotions

However, scientists are divided over whether emotions can be inferred from such bodily signals. Research reviews suggest neither facial expressions nor physiological responses can be used to reliably infer what emotions someone is experiencing.

By adding self-report to its methodological toolkit, Apple may be recognising that subjective experience is essential to understanding human emotion and, it seems, abandoning the goal of inferring emotions solely from “objective” data.

The science behind experience sampling

Emotions versus moods

Apple’s new feature allows users to record their feelings “right now” (labelled emotions) or “overall today” (designated moods). Is this a valid distinction?

Although scientific consensus remains elusive, emotions are typically defined as being about something: I am angry at my boss because she rejected my proposal. On the other hand, moods are not consciously tied to specific events: I’m feeling grumpy, but I don’t know why.

Apple’s two reporting methods don’t neatly distinguish emotions from moods, even though they rely on different cognitive processes that can produce divergent estimates of people’s feelings.

If the new feature allowed users to independently select both the time frame (momentary or daily) and type of feeling (directed emotion or diffuse mood) being experienced, this could help make users more aware of biases in how they remember feelings. It may even help people identify the often obscure causes of their moods.

Dimensions of feeling

Apple’s feeling slider asks people how pleasant or unpleasant they feel. This captures the primary dimension of feeling, known as valence, but neglects other essential dimensions.

Moreover, scientists debate whether pleasantness and unpleasantness are opposite sides of a continuum, as the feature assumes, or whether they can co-occur as mixed emotions. Measuring pleasant and unpleasant feelings separately would allow users to report mixed feelings, which are common in everyday life.

Some research also suggests knowing how pleasant and unpleasant someone is feeling can be used to infer the second fundamental dimension of their feelings, namely their level of arousal – such as how “tense” or “calm” they are.

Feeling categories

After they have rated the valence of the feelings, Apple’s feature asks users to label their feelings using a list of adjectives such as “grateful”, “worried”, “happy” or “discouraged”.

Do these options capture the breadth of human feelings? The number of unique emotion categories – or whether discrete emotion categories exist at all – is a topic of ongoing scientific debate. Yet, Apple’s initial list of feeling categories provides pretty decent coverage of this space.

What are the benefits?

Apple’s claim that mood and emotion tracking may improve users’ wellbeing is not unfounded. Research has shown monitoring and labelling feelings enhances people’s ability to differentiate between emotions, and helps them cope with distress. Both of these are key ingredients for healthy psychological functioning.

Beyond that, emerging research suggests that patterns of moment-to-moment fluctuations in people’s everyday feelings may be useful in predicting who is at risk of developing depression or other mental illnesses.

Apple’s history of research collaboration offers hope that tracking people’s feelings on a massive scale may lead to scientific breakthroughs in our understanding, treatment and prevention of common mental health disorders.

What are the risks?

At the same time, Apple is asking users to hand over yet more of their personal data – so we can’t overlook the potential pitfalls of the new feature.

Apple assures users the Health app is “designed for privacy and security” with a range of safeguards, including data encryption and user control over data sharing. It guarantees health data “may not be used for advertising, marketing, or sold to data brokers”.

This may sound encouraging, but Apple’s data privacy record is far from perfect. The company was recently fined by French authorities for using customers’ data for targeted advertising without consent.

Detailed data on users’ self-reported moods and emotions could also potentially be used for advertising products and services. The potential for misuse and commodification of sensitive mental health data is real, suggesting a need for stricter regulation over how companies collect, store and use customers’ data.

Before you dive into using Apple’s new mood and emotion-tracking feature, we’d urge you to consider whether the risks outweigh the potential benefits for you.

Peter Koval has received funding from the Australian Research Council.

Greg Wadley receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Health and Medical Research Council.

Benjamin Tag et Xanthe Lowe-Brown ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur poste universitaire.

– ref. Apple wants to know if you’re happy or sad as part of its latest software update. Who will this benefit? – https://theconversation.com/apple-wants-to-know-if-youre-happy-or-sad-as-part-of-its-latest-software-update-who-will-this-benefit-210789

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cameron Webb, Clinical Associate Professor and Principal Hospital Scientist, Art Gallery NSW

The weather is warming up and that means more time in the backyard. It also means more mosquitoes.

Here are five ways you can mosquito-proof your backyard that don’t rely on spraying insecticides.

1. Get rid of water

Mosquitoes need water to complete their life cycles. They need blood – but water and warmth are just as important.

Getting rid of water around your backyard will go a long way to keeping mosquitoes away. Water trapped in blocked roof gutters, drains and tarpaulin covering boats and trailers can be a great home for mosquitoes.

Mosquitoes can exploit the tiniest of water sources too. It may just be the upturned lid of a discarded plastic drink bottle. If it traps water, mosquitoes will find it and lay eggs in it.

Read more:
How can the bite of a backyard mozzie in Australia make you sick?

Flush out your bird bath once a week to disrupt the mosquito’s life cycle.

If you have a pond, installing a fountain will discourage mosquitoes. If you can’t keep water clean and circulating, consider filling it with sand and gravel to create an interesting garden bed for succulents or other plants.

Mosquitoes will avoid clean and chlorinated swimming pools but will quickly move into “green pools”. If you’re not using your pool, consider converting it to a “pond” so that fish can help keep mosquito numbers down.

2. Screen up – windows, doors and rainwater tanks

If you can’t get rid of permanent water, at least stop mosquitoes getting to it (or you).

Ensure rainwater and septic tanks have screens to stop mosquitoes entering.

Screen windows and doors to stop mosquitoes entering the home. There are plenty of flexible screening options for windows, doors and balconies.

If you live in a mosquito-prone area, creating a screened outdoor area (such as a pergola, courtyard, or balcony) will give you the opportunity to spend time outdoors without being hassled by mozzies.

3. Choose your garden plants carefully

Some plants contain essential oils and other chemicals that, when extracted and concentrated, provide protection against biting mosquitoes. But there isn’t a lot of evidence that the whole plant will keep mosquitoes away from your garden.

Some types of plants are even marketed as “mozzie blockers” or “mosquito repelling”. But there isn’t any evidence of effectiveness. In fact, some of these plants, such as melaleucas, also happen to be associated with hot spots of mosquito breeding in coastal Australia.

The plants to avoid around the home are those that help mosquitoes breed, such as bromeliads, which trap water.

4. Encourage the animals that eat mosquitoes

Mosquitoes are food for a range of animals including birds, bats, fish, frogs, lizards, insects, spiders and dragonflies. But don’t expect them to eat enough to keep all mosquitoes away.

Bats are often promoted as a good “biological control” options but studies have shown mosquitoes are more likely to be a snack food for small bats, not an irresistible staple of their diet.

For garden ponds, frogs will eat a few adult mosquitoes but tadpoles of Australian frogs generally don’t eat many mosquito “wrigglers”.

Australian native fish will readily eat mosquitoes and may be useful for backyard ponds.

But not all fish are good. While “mosquitofish” (aka “plague minnow”) is distributed overseas to assist in mosquito control, it’s a disaster for local wildlife and, along with other exotic fish species, should not be released into local waterways.

Healthier habitats promote fewer mosquitoes so the best thing you can do is create habitats for the animals that eat mosquitoes.

Read more:
You can leave water out for wildlife without attracting mosquitoes, if you take a few precautions

5. Avoid traps and other gadgets

There are lots of devices purported to catch, kill, or repel mosquitoes from your garden. Some may catch a mosquito or two but they’re not very effective in knocking out big numbers.

“Bug zappers” with bright lights will collect lots of flying insects. It’s just that mosquitoes make up a very small proportion of collections.

Electrocuting devices, again, don’t seem to attract a lot of mosquitoes.

Devices that emit high frequency sounds won’t help either.

The best devices are typically those that are baited with carbon dioxide. These are a mainstay of state and territory mosquito and arbovirus surveillance programs. For a mosquito, the C0₂ tricks them into thinking the trap is a warm-blooded animal. The only problem is these can be expensive to run and don’t seem quite as effective for mosquito control unless used in large numbers.

Yes, you’ll still need repellent

Perhaps the best way to avoid mosquito bites is to pick an insect repellent recommended by health authorities and apply it to ensure all exposed areas of skin are covered. These products and safe, affordable and effective.

Read more:
Mozzies biting? Here’s how to choose a repellent (and how to use it for the best protection)

Cameron Webb and the Department of Medical Entomology, NSW Health Pathology, have been engaged by a wide range of insect repellent and insecticide manufacturers to provide testing of products and provide expert advice on mosquito biology. Cameron has also received funding from local, state and federal agencies to undertake research into mosquito-borne disease surveillance and management.

– ref. It’s warming up and mozzies are coming. Here’s how to mosquito-proof your backyard – https://theconversation.com/its-warming-up-and-mozzies-are-coming-heres-how-to-mosquito-proof-your-backyard-212711

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher Cornwall, Lecturer, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

Years of almost non-stop marine heatwaves are stressing New Zealand’s kelp forests. But as we show in our new research, ongoing ocean warming is only one of several threats to these unique and important coastal seaweed ecosystems.

Many seaweed species are sensitive to changes in the ocean’s acidity and coastal “darkening” – changes in colour and clarity – is forcing some to retreat to shallower waters. All these stress factors combined place these crucial habitats in peril, with consequences for all species that depend on them.

New Zealand has the ninth longest coastline in the world (at about 15,000 kilometres). This is almost twice the length of Australia’s great southern reef, which has been valued at AUS$10 billion annually.

No equivalent valuation has been calculated for New Zealand’s seaweed-dominated rocky reefs, but we know they provide crucial habitat for economically and culturally important species such as pāua (abalone), kina (sea urchins), rock lobster and near-shore finfish.

Our ability to predict the future impacts on these species depends on our understanding of how the coastal habitats they require are changing.

Rising heat and dimming light

New Zealand’s seaweed ecosystems include canopy-forming large brown algae as well as several understorey species. Driven by rising ocean temperatures, more frequent, intense and longer marine heatwaves already place these kelp forests under thermal stress.

We predict that marine heatwaves will change the range and basic physiology of many seaweed species, removing sensitive ones from the northern edges of their ranges and slowing growth rates of most.

Seaweeds require sunlight to photosynthesise and grow. But increasingly frequent erosion events from extreme weather like cyclone Gabrielle raise sediment levels in coastal seawater, leading to coastal darkening.

Sediment running off the land, made worse by storm events, has already lowered photosynthetic rates of seaweeds in several regions. New Zealand’s geologically young landmass is eroding rapidly in some areas and research shows seaweed communities are creeping further up the reef into shallow waters. They can no longer survive in deeper reefs because of low light.

This darkening will intensify if we don’t halt erosion and remediate lands. The effects of sedimentation have likely already limited the distribution of some seaweeds and will continue to do so in future.

When the sea becomes more acidic

Ocean acidification, which makes seawater more acidic because of the excess carbon dioxide it is absorbing, threatens the ability of calcareous seaweeds to grow. It puts the survival of sensitive coralline algae (the pink algae covering coastal rocky reefs) at risk, slowing their growth and ability to spread to new space.

These red seaweeds form skeletons made of calcium carbonate and represent the seaweed group most sensitive to ocean acidification. Within coralline algae, some species are more sensitive than others.

In New Zealand, coralline algae provide important surfaces for larval settlement of many species, including pāua and kina. Whether the species of coralline algae that provide vital settlement substrates are sensitive or robust to ocean acidification remains unknown.

Read more:
Ocean acidification will increase the iodine content of seaweeds – and the billions of people who eat them

Ecological impacts on seaweed ecosystems

Seaweed communities provide enormous benefits to New Zealand. They provide food and habitat for several marine invertebrates and finfish species of both cultural and commercial value, including pāua, kina, moki, snapper, rocklobster, blue cod and butterfish.

If seaweed ecosystems are altered, these species will experience changes in food supply and habitat availability.

Giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) and bull kelp (Durvillaea spp.) are important habitat formers and food suppliers for other species. But they are also extremely sensitive to the impacts of temperature stress.

Marine heatwaves and ongoing ocean warming likely threaten them throughout their ranges, especially at their northern limit.

Shifting population ranges and invasions

Warming oceans also facilitate the spread of Australian long-spined urchins (Centrostephanus rodgersii) which will threaten seaweed communities in northern New Zealand.

Populations of this warm-water species have already expanded in some parts of New Zealand, similar to Tasmania where it invaded during the 1950s and caused widespread “urchin barrens” where the urchins graze through kelp beds, leaving few seaweeds.

Read more:
Sea urchins have invaded Tasmania and Victoria, but we can’t work out what to do with them

New Zealand is home to around 1,100 species of seaweeds. Many are poorly documented and with unknown ranges.

The combined effects of climate change will likely result in the extinction of some species with very narrow ranges. This is especially true for species that are sensitive to changes in light or temperature and currently live near the edges of their physiological limits.

To add to all of this, we don’t know how the impacts of the invasive caulerpa seaweeds Caulerpa brachypus and Caulerpa parvifolia will interact with climate change.

The degradation of coastal ecosystems is another reminder that we must move to eliminate the use of fossil fuels, as well as limiting overfishing and sedimentation.

There is potential to breed high-temperature, low-light and low-pH resistant strains of major species to help restore these ecosystems in the future, but we need strategic government investment in integrated coastal management and climate adaptation to save them in the first place.

Christopher Cornwall receives funding from The Tertiary Education Commission of New Zealand, Victoria University of Wellington, The French Embassy in New Zealand, Mountains to the Sea Wellington, and Te Apārangi The Royal Society of New Zealand.

Wendy Nelson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. NZ’s vital kelp forests are in peril from ocean warming – threatening the important species that rely on them – https://theconversation.com/nzs-vital-kelp-forests-are-in-peril-from-ocean-warming-threatening-the-important-species-that-rely-on-them-212956

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Colin Klein, Professor, School of Philosophy, Australian National University

In June 2022, Google engineer Blake Lemoine made headlines by claiming the company’s LaMDA chatbot had achieved sentience. The software had the conversational ability of a precocious seven-year-old, Lemoine said, and we should assume it possessed a similar awareness of the world.

LaMDA, later released to the public as Bard, is powered by a “large language model” (LLM) of the kind that also forms the engine of OpenAI’s ChatGPT bot. Other big tech companies are rushing to deploy similar technology.

Hundreds of millions of people have now had the chance to play with LLMs, but few seem to believe they are conscious. Instead, in linguist and data scientist Emily Bender’s poetic phrase, they are “stochastic parrots”, which chatter convincingly without understanding. But what about the next generation of artificial intelligence (AI) systems, and the one after that?

Our team of philosophers, neuroscientists and computer scientists looked to current scientific theories of how human consciousness works to draw up a list of basic computational properties that any hypothetically conscious system would likely need to possess. In our view, no current system comes anywhere near the bar for consciousness – but at the same time, there’s no obvious reason future systems won’t become truly aware.

Finding indicators

Since computing pioneer Alan Turing proposed his “Imitation Game” in 1950, the ability to successfully impersonate a human in conversation has often been taken as a reliable marker of consciousness. This is usually because the task has seemed so difficult it must require consciousness.

However, as with chess computer Deep Blue’s 1997 defeat of grandmaster Gary Kasparov, the conversational fluency of LLMs may just move the goalposts. Is there a principled way to approach the question of AI consciousness that does not rely on our intuitions about what is difficult or special about human cognition?

Read more:
A Google software engineer believes an AI has become sentient. If he’s right, how would we know?

Our recent white paper aims to do just that. We compared current scientific theories of what makes humans conscious to compile a list of “indicator properties” that could then be applied to AI systems.

We don’t think systems that possess the indicator properties are definitely conscious, but the more indicators, the more seriously we should take claims of AI consciousness.

The computational processes behind consciousness

What sort of indicators were we looking for? We avoided overt behavioural criteria – such as being able to hold conversations with people – because these tend to be both human-centric and easy to fake.

Instead, we looked at theories of the computational processes that support consciousness in the human brain. These can tell us about the sort of information-processing needed to support subjective experience.

“Global workspace theories”, for example, postulate that consciousness arises from the presence of a capacity-limited bottleneck which collates information from all parts of the brain and selects information to make globally available. “Recurrent processing theories” emphasise the role of feedback from later processes to earlier ones.

Each theory in turn suggests more specific indicators. Our final list contains 14 indicators, each focusing on an aspect of how systems work rather than how they behave.

No reason to think current systems are conscious

How do current technologies stack up? Our analysis suggests there is no reason to think current AI systems are conscious.

Some do meet a few of the indicators. Systems using the transformer architecture, a kind of machine-learning model behind ChatGPT and similar tools, meet three of the “global workspace” indicators, but lack the crucial ability for global rebroadcast. They also fail to satisfy most of the other indicators.

So, despite ChatGPT’s impressive conversational abilities, there is probably nobody home inside. Other architectures similarly meet at best a handful of criteria.

Read more:
Not everything we call AI is actually ‘artificial intelligence’. Here’s what you need to know

Most current architectures only meet a few of the indicators at most. However, for most of the indicators, there is at least one current architecture that meets it.

This suggests there are no obvious, in-principle technical barriers to building AI systems that satisfy most or all of the indicators.

It is probably a matter of when rather than if some such system is built. Of course, plenty of questions will still remain when that happens.

Beyond human consciousness

The scientific theories we canvass (and the authors of the paper!) don’t always agree with one another. We used a list of indicators rather than strict criteria to acknowledge that fact. This can be a powerful methodology in the face of scientific uncertainty.

We were inspired by similar debates about animal consciousness. Most of us think at least some nonhuman animals are conscious, despite the fact they cannot converse with us about what they’re feeling.

A 2021 report from the London School of Economics arguing that cephalopods such as octopuses likely feel pain was instrumental in changing UK animal ethics policy. A focus on structural features has the surprising consequence that even some simple animals, like insects, might even possess a minimal form of consciousness.

Our report does not make recommendations for what to do with conscious AI. This question will become more pressing as AI systems inevitably become more powerful and widely deployed.

Our indicators will not be the last word – but we hope they will become a first step in tackling this tricky question in a scientifically grounded way.

Colin Klein receives funding from The Templeton World Charity Foundation (TWCF-2020-20539)

– ref. Why ChatGPT isn’t conscious – but future AI systems might be – https://theconversation.com/why-chatgpt-isnt-conscious-but-future-ai-systems-might-be-212860

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan St John, Honorary Associate Professor, Economic Policy Centre, Auckland Business School, University of Auckland

Casual observers could be forgiven for thinking the National Party’s recently released Working for Families tax policy had been cut and pasted from the Labour Party’s own policy. The similarities are certainly striking.

Both parties pledge to increase the “in-work tax credit” (IWTC) by NZ$25, to $97.50 a week from April next year. They also promise to raise the Working for Families (WFF) household income abatement threshold (above which payments start reducing at 27%) from $42,700 to $50,000 in 2026.

In this strange pre-election coalescence, there is no longer even a pretence of delivering on Labour’s stalled Working for Families review that promised “fundamental” changes to the system.

The major WFF tax credit remains the Family Tax Credit. It costs $2.3 billion a year, and is worth $137 weekly for the first child, and $111.60 for each extra child. This payment goes to all low-income children, whether or not parents are on welfare benefits, and is the major income tool to address child poverty.

But nearly one fifth of the two main WFF tax credits are made up by the IWTC, costing $500 million annually. Only children in families with some paid work (and not on any benefit) are eligible. Thus around 200,000 of the poorest children are excluded, disproportionately affecting Māori, Pacific and disabled children.

Poverty and paid work

The current IWTC is a flat $72.50 a week for families with one to three children, with an extra $15 added for each additional child. Parents or caregivers (if eligible) receive both child-related tax credits in one weekly payment.

But the IWTC can quickly disappear if their employment status changes due to illness, redundancy or some other cause. Unless they struggle on without a welfare benefit and have “some” paid work, they can keep the IWTC for only two weeks.

The problem lies in the way the IWTC conflates two different things: an incentive to seek and find paid work, and a mechanism for reducing child poverty. By withholding a payment that reduces poverty – when a household loses paid work or is on a benefit – child poverty is perpetuated.

Until now, the IWTC has tended to be an issue within obscure tax debates. But with both major parties effectively proposing the same policy, the political origins of the IWTC and the worrying implications of the current consensus are out in the open.

A brief history of tax credits

In 1996, the then-National government could not ignore the rapid increase in child poverty that followed its “mother of all budgets” in 1991, and increased weekly “family support” payments by $20 per child.

Of that increase, $15 comprised what became known as the Child Tax Credit. It was only available for children whose parents were “independent from the state”. The poorest children received only the remaining $5 from the increase, not nearly enough to match inflation.

Read more:
NZ is finally making progress on child poverty – but a ‘no frills’ budget puts that at risk

The opposition Labour Party vowed to remove what it saw as discrimination. Finance spokesperson Michael Cullen spoke in parliament of National’s “simplistic tangle of bigotry and ignorance”:

Children are children are children, no matter who their parents are. To draw distinctions between what the state says should go to low-income families on the basis of the source of that income, rather than on the level of that income, is obscene.

But when Labour returned to power in 1999 it changed nothing for five years, until 2005 when it turned the old family support payment into the Family Tax Credit. Then in 2006, it transformed the Child Tax Credit of $15 per child into the IWTC.

Debt and distress

The IWTC became a flat $60 per week for a family with one to three children, and $15 for each additional child. But to qualify, sole parents had to perform at least 20 hours of paid work each week, and a couple 30 hours.

In 2016, the National government left the Family Tax Credit unchanged and instead favoured those in paid work by raising the IWTC to $72.50 per week, where it sits today.

The current Labour government removed the fixed hours of paid work requirement in 2020 due to COVID’s employment effects. But “some” paid work is still required, and a family cannot be on any benefit.

Read more:
Taxing questions: is National glossing over the likely cost of administering its new ‘revenue measures’?

Furthermore, any alleged “overpayment” of WFF (due to unexpected extra income, or when the vague rules around paid work, benefits or relationship status are not met) must be repaid to Inland Revenue.

For families already struggling with other debt, this only adds to their distress. Inland Revenue reported a 26% increase in WFF debt for the year to June 2022.

And yet, due to the way the Family Tax Credit is calculated, the IWTC may be paid in full well up the income scale. Under the proposed election policies, for example, the weekly $25 increase to the IWTC will mean a five-child family can earn nearly $160,000 before their IWTC of $102.50 starts to reduce.

Those families would not appear to need any work incentive. But the worst-off children in struggling families who do not qualify will fall even further behind.

Read more:
NZ’s housing market drives inequality – why not just tax houses like any other income?

A fairer system

Better strategies to reduce child poverty and help low-wage families are needed. Why not simply give the full WFF package to families that currently miss out on the $72.50 (more for larger families), regardless of their household’s employment status?

This would meaningfully reduce child poverty in a cost-effective way. After all, both parties have signed up to the Child Poverty Reduction Act, but their election policies do little to address these issues.

All of the new spending would go to the worst-off, and none of it to higher-income families. Yes, it would be expensive at $500 million. But the policy to retain and enlarge the IWTC is expensive already.

Finally, many low-income families find they are hardly better off if they earn over the $42,700 abatement threshold. Each extra dollar earned may end up as only a few cents in the hand after 17.5 cents in tax, 27 cents in WFF, and often 25 cents in housing assistance and 12 cents in student loan repayments, are all taken out.

The Labour-National proposed increase to only $50,000 by 2026 is too little, too late. Today it should be $53,000 just to match inflation.

As it stands, both Labour and National will preside over deepening family poverty among beneficiaries, while ignoring the huge work disincentives faced by the working poor.

Susan St John is affiliated with the Child Poverty Action Group.

– ref. The Labour-National consensus on family support means the election won’t change much for NZ’s poorest households – https://theconversation.com/the-labour-national-consensus-on-family-support-means-the-election-wont-change-much-for-nzs-poorest-households-212450

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Josephine Chau, Senior Lecturer in Public Health, Macquarie University

In modern life, many of us spend the majority of our waking hours sitting. A recent review of the research has reiterated the harmful health impacts of prolonged, unbroken periods of sitting.

Many workplaces have adopted sit-stand desks, which allow you to sit down or stand up with the push of a button or lever, to reduce the harms of prolonged sitting.

But how much better is standing? And are there risks of too much standing? Here’s what the research says about the risks of too much sitting and standing, and whether it’s worth investing in – or ditching – a sit-stand desk.

Read more:
COVID saw us sitting longer – and diabetes rose globally by 16% in 2 years. Time to get moving

What are the hazards of too much sitting?

People who sit a lot have higher chances of developing chronic diseases such as type 2 diabetes, heart disease, and some cancers, and having a shorter lifespan. Prolonged sitting can also lead to musculoskeletal complaints, particularly in the neck and back.

Excessive sitting is even more harmful to health among people who do very little exercise or who do not meet the recommended levels of physical activity.

Being physically active is important for reducing the health risks linked to being sedentary, but it may not fully cancel out the negative effects of spending long hours sitting each day.

Prolonged standing can be harmful too

Extended periods of standing can be harmful to musculoskeletal health. Prolonged standing may lead to musculoskeletal symptoms such as muscle fatigue, leg swelling, varicose veins, and pain and discomfort in the low back and lower extremities (hips, knees, ankles and feet).

Recent research suggests limiting standing to about 40 minutes at a time, without a break, would reduce the chances of developing muscle and joint aches and pains due to prolonged standing. This applies to people who may or may not have had symptoms before.

Not everyone who stands for prolonged periods will experience these musculoskeletal symptoms, and some people may be more resilient to the effects of prolonged standing than others.

However, even if you take a break from standing, if you have previously developed standing-related aches and pains, you’re more likely to experience them again when you resume standing.

Read more:
How the media oversold standing desks as a fix for inactivity at work

Break up extended periods of sitting

Reducing or interrupting sitting by standing up or moving around can improve your blood circulation, metabolism, heart health, mental health and lifespan.

Modelling studies show that swapping one hour of sitting each day for one hour of standing leads to improvements in waist circumference, fat and cholesterol levels.

The benefit is even greater when sitting is replaced with walking or moderate-to-vigorous activity.

Interrupting prolonged sitting time with as little as two minutes of walking every 20 minutes or five minutes of walking every 30 minutes can improve blood glucose, fat, and cholesterol levels.

Other research shows breaking up prolonged sitting time with three minutes of light walking or simple resistance exercises, such as squats and calf raises, every 30 minutes is also effective.

The evidence on sit-stand desks

Sit-stand desks can effectively reduce sitting time during the workday among desk-based workers. Sit-stand desk users tend to alternate between sitting and standing postures, instead of standing up for extended periods.

However, the extent of developing a new habit of working while standing up varies, and many users revert to their previous way of working sitting down in the longer term.

Sit-stand desks alone are not sufficient to reduce desk-based workers’ sitting time. Employers and organisations must factor this into their workplace policies, environment and culture to ensure “sit less and move more” initiatives are effectively delivered and sustained.

Should I ditch my sit-stand desk?

If you already have a sit-stand desk, whether you should keep or get rid of it will depend on a range of factors.

Think about your usage patterns. Do you use your desk regularly in a standing position, or do you mainly use it sitting down?

Consider your comfort. Does standing or sitting for prolonged periods while working lead to any discomfort or fatigue in your body? If so, you may need to adjust your sit-stand routine or include extra supports, such as a floor mat for more comfortable standing or a foot rest for safer sitting, to avoid injury.

Read more:
Get a proper chair, don’t eat at your desk, and no phones in the loo – how to keep your home workspace safe and hygienic

Assess your desk ergonomics. Is your sit-stand desk set up ergonomically safe for working in both sitting and standing positions? Proper ergonomics are essential to ensure you work in a safe and comfortable way in the office and from home.

Reflect on your health needs. Will reducing and breaking up prolonged sitting time with standing alleviate discomfort due to sitting or contribute to improving your metabolic and heart health? Standing up and moving around regularly throughout the workday will achieve similar benefits regardless of your desk type.

If you have an existing health condition or ongoing musculoskeletal symptoms, seek advice from a health care professional or ask your employer about organising an assessment with an ergonomics specialist. Expert guidance can help you make an informed decision about your sit-stand desk.

Finally, weigh up the cost and space requirements of your sit-stand desk. If you are not using it in a standing position much, maybe it’s just taking up space and not providing a return on your investment?

Ultimately, the decision to keep or ditch your sit-stand desk will come down to a balance of these considerations.

Being physically active is most important

Physical activity guidelines from governments and health-related agencies, such as those from Australia and the World Health Organization, recommend adults limit the amount of time spent sitting. Interrupting and replacing sitting time with physical activity of any intensity – even light intensity – has health benefits.

The WHO further recommends adults “aim to do more than the recommended levels of moderate- to vigorous-intensity physical activity” to reduce the harmful health effects of high levels of sitting.

In other words, just standing is not enough to reduce the harms of prolonged sitting. We need to sit less and move more.

Read more:
Research Check: will binge-watching TV increase your risk for Alzheimer’s disease and diabetes?

Josephine Chau uses a sit-stand desk at work. She does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any standing desk company or organisation that would benefit from this article. Josephine’s current research that is relevant to this article receives funding from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia. In the past, she has received funding from the National Heart Foundation of Australia and the World Health Organization. Josephine is co-President of the NSW-ACT Branch of the Australian Health Promotion Association.

– ref. Is standing at your desk actually better than sitting? Here’s what the evidence says – https://theconversation.com/is-standing-at-your-desk-actually-better-than-sitting-heres-what-the-evidence-says-212618

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David M Watson, Professor in Ecology, Charles Sturt University

Until recently, mistletoes were regarded as problematic pests across Australia. They were seen as having been introduced from elsewhere, exploiting helpless trees and driving their premature demise.

Around the world, arborists and plantation managers used to be trained to remove mistletoes as part of routine maintenance. They went to extraordinary lengths to rid trees of these dense parasitic clumps, using flamethrowers, high-powered rifles, even herbicide-spritzing drones.

But just as we now know that hollows are essential for wildlife, including many threatened species, awareness of the positive side of parasitic plants is growing. Mistletoes have been shown to boost biodiversity and increase resilience of wildlife populations to drought, habitat loss and predators.

However, unlike other plants that can be grown as seedlings and planted out, mistletoes rely on animals to plant their seeds on the branches of host trees. This means they aren’t included in revegetation efforts, and it was unclear whether it would even be possible.

We set out on a world-first trial to attempt to reintroduce mistletoe to the trees of Melbourne. As our recently published research shows, we succeeded. Some of the mistletoes are now even bearing fruit.

The only factor that stood in the way of success was the bane of many gardeners’ lives – hungry brushtail possums.

Read more:
‘WA’s Christmas tree’: what mungee, the world’s largest mistletoe, can teach us about treading lightly

Productive parasites

Mistletoes provide many benefits for local biodiversity. Their flowers provide reliable nectar that encourages pollinators to linger longer. They then boost the populations of other plant species they visit.

The nutrients in mistletoe leaves boost soil health and dramatically increase insect numbers when they fall to the forest floor.

The ripples of these interactions spread right through woodland food webs. One study demonstrated the most significant impacts on ground-feeding insect-eating birds, whose numbers have declined across eastern Australia.

Many birds nest in mistletoes. Their dense evergreen foliage provides cover from predators.

All of Australia’s mistletoes are native species. Most hail from ancient lineages dating all the way back to Gondwanaland.

The knowledge we have gained about mistletoes has led to an about-face in natural resource management. Managers are rethinking mistletoe removal and embracing these native plants as ecological keystones.

In some areas where mistletoes no longer occur, restoration practitioners have suggested reintroducing them. It had been unclear if this was feasible.

Read more:
Mistletoe: the kiss of life for healthy forests

Making Melbourne even more marvellous

Working closely with City of Melbourne staff, research scientists from the Gulbali Institute undertook a world-first trial of the reintroduction of a native mistletoe to street trees. Rather than eucalypts or other native trees, we decided to use plane trees, a European species that is a feature of city streets the world over. In Australia, very few things interact with plane trees — nothing eats them, which is one reason they’re popular street trees.

Rather than replace these established trees with more fitting local species and waiting a few decades for them to grow, we tried something a little different. We added a native mistletoe to their canopies to boost the resources available to urban wildlife.

We chose creeping mistletoe (Muellerina eucalyptoides), which is now scarce in Melbourne, but is just as happy growing on exotic deciduous trees as the evergreen eucalypts this species depends on as hosts in the bush.

Our research paper summarises the outcomes of the trial. Almost 900 seeds were carefully wiped on the branches of 28 plane trees. We were replicating the efforts of mistletoebirds, which usually spread these sticky seeds.

Five years after inoculation, we found mistletoes had established on five trees. Even better, two of these plants were full of fruit. There is now a ready-made seed source in the heart of Melbourne for further expansion of these beneficial native plants.

Read more:
Australia’s unusual species

The problems with possums

Rather than establishment depending on the size of the branch, the age of the tree or which direction it faced, the only factor that emerged as a significant determinant of success was whether or not the tree was fitted with a possum collar. These acrylic or metal sheets wrapped around the trunk are too slippery for possums to climb. The city’s tree management team routinely uses these collars to grant a reprieve to trees whose canopies have been badly damaged by these marsupials.

Previous work has found possums love to eat mistletoe foliage. This is likely due to their high concentration of nutrients and lack of chemical defences that eucalypts have.

Our study is the first to provide direct evidence of the effect of common brushtail possums on mistletoe recruitment. Its findings reinforce reports from New Zealand, where introduced brushtail possums have devastated three mistletoe species and been implicated in the extinction of a fourth, the only mistletoe known to have gone extinct worldwide.

Read more:
Why sweet-toothed possums graze on stressed, sickly-looking trees

Beautiful butterflies are returning

Time will tell how the addition of these plants to the urban forest will affect Melbourne wildlife. Already, gorgeous imperial jezebel butterflies have been spotted emerging from creeping mistletoes in Princes Park.

Even better, our work has inspired three other urban mistletoe reintroductions elsewhere in Melbourne. In New South Wales, Birdlife Australia and Mindaribba Local Aboriginal Land Council are working together to restore mistletoe to woodlands on Wonnarua Country. The mistletoe will supply missing nectar resources for the critically endangered regent honeyeater.

Collectively, this work is helping to shift the public perception of these native plants – from pernicious parasites to ecological keystones.

Read more:
Regent honeyeaters were once kings of flowering gums. Now they’re on the edge of extinction. What happened?

David M Watson receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Hermon Slade Foundation, and Chris and Gina Grubb.

Rodney van der Ree has received funding from the Australian Research Council and worked for the City of Melbourne when this research commenced. He now consults to industry and all levels of government in Australia

– ref. How we brought mistletoes back to the trees of Melbourne – while warding off hungry possums – https://theconversation.com/how-we-brought-mistletoes-back-to-the-trees-of-melbourne-while-warding-off-hungry-possums-211742

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marg Rogers, Senior Lecturer, Early Childhood Education, University of New England

Parents have no doubt heard all the classic grumbles from children and teenagers. From “It’s not fair!” to “Not spinach again!” and our personal favourite, “Why do I have to do all the work?”

All children are prone to being disgruntled and complaining in certain situations. But frequent grumbling can stretch adults’ patience and make them see their kids as ungrateful and unappreciative.

If children are grumbling, they are likely doing it for a good reason. So it is important not to just dismiss it outright. It is also important for kids learn to express themselves in more helpful ways.

Learning how to respectfully express dissatisfaction and call out unfairness can support a child’s mental health, foster respectful relationships at school, and a positive transition into adulthood.

So, how can we support children to have a voice, while turning their grumbles into more respectful communication?

Why are kids grumbling?

Grumbling, whingeing and complaining behaviour is annoying but it means something – children are doing it to communicate. Children are hardwired from birth to cry to get their parent’s attention.

As they grow up, children’s crying often develops into whining and grumbling. This generally reduces with age – although, when stressed, adults can still grumble and cry!

To help reduce grumbling, start by observing the patterns and triggers. Does it happen at a particular time of day or around a particular activity?

Children may grumble because they are trying to share their perspective, express a frustration, or address a perceived unfairness. Children may also grumble to seek attention from an adult, or to test limits and boundaries.

In younger children, grumbling may mean they are tired, hungry, disappointed, frustrated or overwhelmed. They might be responding to changes in their lives, such as a change at school or something different in a parent’s work routine.

In older children, grumbling may also be linked to fatigue, stress and boredom. Teenage grumbling can be particularly aggravating if it is accompanied by eye-rolling or shoulder shrugging – which can really push a parent’s buttons.

A whingey kid is annoying … but

It can be hard to empathise with grumbling. Adults may question the child’s reason to be upset, feel a problem has been wildly exaggerated, that a child is trying to avoid a job or is just being plain irritating.

Because grumbling is so annoying, especially if it is frequent and done in a whingey voice, adults may be inclined to make it go away by giving in to the child.

The inadvertent long-term effect of this strategy is to teach children their needs will be met through grumbling.

In moments of exasperation, instead of responding crossly or giving in, try and give yourself a break and step away. When feeling calmer, think about what your child is actually trying to say.

Read more:
Stressed about managing your child’s behaviour? Here are four things every parent should know

Model positive communication

Adult-child and adult-teen communication can be tricky, especially if adults focus on the negative tone rather than the message behind. it. But adults can break this cycle.

The key is to listen calmly. Avoid being dismissive, raising your voice, or labelling children as “whingers”.

Give your full attention, nod to show you are listening and check you understand their concerns and opinions (even if you don’t agree).

Listening in this way helps children feel valued, eventually reducing grumbles.

Here’s how you can respond

Having listened – and heard – try to formulate a reasonable response, prompting the child to find a potential solution. This is showing your child how to communicate constructively.

For example, a child might say, “I’m alwaaaaays emptying the bins”. This might mean, “I don’t think the jobs are fairly distributed”, or “I’m getting bored doing the same job”. So adults could ask, “How can the jobs be allocated in a fairer way?” This supports independence and problem solving.

A child might also say, “It took me ages to clean that up”. This might mean, “I want to be thanked and acknowledged”. So you might respond by saying how much better the area looks and thank them for their time and effort.

Or you might hear, “Having those chairs in the hallway is dumb”. This might actually mean “I’ve got some ideas about how we organise our house”.

Parents could say they are interested in alternative ideas, but only if they are expressed with respect. Once they speak politely, if a small change is reasonable, you could ask the child to help adjust the space using a mix of both of your ideas (teaching teamwork). This helps them learn they have a right to be heard, but it is their responsibility to speak politely.

Parents could also say something like, “It’s tricky, but using kind words means people are more likely to listen and respond to you”.

Read more:
‘Just leave me alone!’ Why staying connected to your teenager is tricky but important

Times and places

It’s not possible for adults to respond reasonably to every random grumble. We can teach children and teenagers there are times and places to raise complaints and concerns.

For example, your child might say, “We never get enough TV before dinner” right as you are taking the roast out of the oven. In response, you could say, “I can see this issue is really important to you” (acknowledging their concerns). You could add, “It’s late, so let’s chat about this for ten minutes over breakfast tomorrow” (making a time and setting limits).

Grumbling is a fact of life with children. But shutting down grumbles without addressing the underlying cause is likely to provoke more grumbles, and do little to teach children about useful communication.

However hard it may be for a tired, harassed parent, taking the time to deal with complaints and whinges constructively can be beneficial in the long run.

Marg receives funding from the Commonwealth-funded Manna Institute, which aims to improve place-based mental health research for regional, rural and remote Australia. The Child and Family Resilience Programs project she leads has received funding from The Ian Potter Foundation and the Foundation of Graduates of Early Childhood Studies.

Cassy Dittman receives funding from the Commonwealth-funded Manna Institute, which aims to improve place-based mental health research for regional, rural and remote Australia. She holds an Honorary Research Fellowship with the Parenting and Family Support Centre, which is partly funded by royalties stemming from published resources of the Triple P – Positive Parenting Program, which is developed and owned by The University of Queensland (UQ). Royalties are also distributed to the Faculty of Health and Behavioral Sciences at UQ and contributory authors of published Triple P resources. Triple P International (TPI) Pty Ltd is a private company licensed by UniQuest Pty Ltd on behalf of UQ, to publish and disseminate Triple P worldwide. Cassy Dittman has no share or ownership of TPI, however as an author on Triple P Programs, she receives royalties from TPI.

Govind Krishnamoorthy works for the University of Southern Queensland. Govind receives funding from the Commonwealth-funded Manna Institute, which aims to improve place-based mental health research for regional, rural and remote Australia. Govind has also received research funding from Rotary Health Australia for child mental health research. Govind is a member of the Clinical College of the Australian Psychological Soceity.

– ref. ‘It’s not fair!’ Kids grumble and complain for a reason, here’s how to handle it – https://theconversation.com/its-not-fair-kids-grumble-and-complain-for-a-reason-heres-how-to-handle-it-212621

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Douglas, Honorary Senior Lecturer, UNSW Aviation and Fellow of the University of Wollongong, UNSW Sydney

Federal Transport Minister Catherine King has offered several explanations for the decision to deny the Qatari government’s request to fly extra flights into Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth.

None of them amounts to a clear rationale for the decision, which has been criticised by airlines, airports, tourism bodies consumer advocates and state governments.

The big question is why such decisions are even up to the minister, rather than being left to the market.

It stems from an outdated international treaty on commercial aviation, from a time when national security was the prime concern. There is, however, a workaround, which other nations have been using, known as open-skies agreements.

Read more:
Grattan on Friday: Transport Minister Catherine King struggles to find a landing strip amid Qatar turbulence

An outdated convention

King’s right to rule on international flights is based on the
Convention on International Civil Aviation, signed in December 1944 in Chicago – and hence known as the Chicago Convention.

Representatives from 54 nations attended the convention. All agreed they should have sovereignty over the airspace above their territory. The resulting framework prohibited international commercial flights unless expressly permitted. Thus, for an airline to fly internationally there must first be a government-level agreement to permit it.

For example, no Australian airline can operate scheduled commercial services or even sell codeshare flights to the Maldives, because Australia has no air service agreement with the South Asian archipelago.

While the level of demand today may not justify direct services, the framework effectively ensures there never will be that demand.

Turning to open-skies deals

Changing this bilateral-treaty system has proven difficult. Many countries have, since the 1990s, taken the next best approach: open-skies agreements.

An open-skies agreement is a deal between two or more nations that allows for unlimited commercial services without the need for explicit ministerial approval.

Nations can still intervene, so sovereignty is preserved, and intervention is typically limited to safety and security grounds.

The United States has open-skies agreements with more than 100 nations, including the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. Singapore has open-skies agreements with more than 60 nations. Canada has open-skies agreements with 23 nations.

The US, Singapore and New Zealand are parties to an eight-nation multilateral open-skies agreement (the Multilateral Agreement on the Liberalization of International Air Transportation), which does not include Australia.

Australia has open-skies agreements with just seven nations: China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore (which is why Singapore Airlines is expanding services to Australia without controversy), the US and the United Kingdom. This makes Australia a relative outlier among developed nations.

The federal government’s Aviation Green Paper 2023 spends only 2 of 224 pages discussing international aviation competition. It proposes no change in approach.

Redundant rationale

Because Australia is separated by great distances from major population centres, governments historically wanted to ensure Australia had air services that were secure, reliable and economically viable.

However, aviation has moved on. The emergence of major hubs, first in South-East Asia, then in the Middle East, altered the structure of international aviation.

Treaties that Australia negotiated long ago have become redundant. Direct flights by Australian or European airlines are largely uncompetitive against midpoint hubs, where the carriers connect more than 50 cities in Europe to Australian gateways.

Non-stop flights to other regions are now widely available, and are offered by an increasing number of airlines from various countries. There is enough redundancy in the system that if one or more airlines stopped serving Australia, the security and reliability of air services would still be maintained.

Read more:
What will putting the interests of Qantas ahead of Qatar Airways cost? $1 billion per year and a new wave of protectionism of legacy carriers

Open skies in Australia’s national interest

Australia would experience a net benefit from more international flights. As an island nation, aviation is essential for two of our largest export industries: education and tourism. The persistence of demand for air travel despite record high fares illustrates this.

Australian carriers have not flagged meaningful international service expansion beyond pre-COVID levels. Indeed, they have consistently neglected to use existing traffic rights to major markets such as Malaysia. The introduction of low-cost services, such as 67 weekly flights by the Air Asia group, from such markets has demonstrated that new air services stimulate new demand and do not necessarily harm incumbent operators AirAsia Xpanding Services To China And Australia.

Protecting a stagnant Australian-based international operation is unnecessary and even harmful to the broader economy.

It’s also in Australia’s national interest to ensure adherence to international obligations and adoption of values that Australia promotes. As a nation that has long espoused liberal economic values, it’s in Australia’s interest to commit to healthy competition in the aviation industry and reduce arbitrary decision-making.

Read more:
Grattan: Albanese’s government has questions to answer on competition

A key obligation of signatories to the Chicago Convention is to ensure civil aviation is used for purposes consistent with the convention’s aims. One aim is that “international air transport services may be established on the basis of equality of opportunity”.

Protecting the profit of Australian airlines, when no such reason has been cited in other similar cases, risks breaching this obligation. The inability of Australia’s transport minister to provide a clear rationale for the decision is precisely why the decision is best left to the market.

Ian Douglas is affiliated with the Air Transport Research Society and the German Aviation Research Society. He holds an honorary Fellow appointment at the University of Wollongong and an honorary Senior Lecturer appointment at UNSW. He lectures from time to time as an external contributor to the Civil Aviation Management Program at the Singapore Aviation Academy..

Ian Douglas is a former Chair of the Australian International Air Services Commission

Seena Sarram is affiliated with UNSW’s School of Aviation as a casual academic. He previously worked for Qantas from 2018 to 2021 and Qatar Airways from 2013 to 2018.

– ref. Under ‘open skies’, the market, not the minister, would decide how often airlines could fly into Australia – https://theconversation.com/under-open-skies-the-market-not-the-minister-would-decide-how-often-airlines-could-fly-into-australia-213214

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dee Ninis, Earthquake Scientist, Monash University

As locals continue to mourn the loss of more than 2,100 people, a mammoth search and rescue effort is underway in quake-struck Morocco.

The 6.8 magnitude earthquake struck at 11:11 pm on Friday night, local time, with an epicentre in the Atlas Mountains about 75km southwest of Marrakech. The quake shook the northeast African and southwest Mediterranean region, with reports of shaking felt as far away as Oran in Algeria, and Porto in Portugal, at a distance of more than 1,000km.

At a relatively shallow depth of about 20km, “severe” ground-shaking intensities were reported around the quake’s epicentre, where several remote villages are located.

The ground shaking associated with the earthquake resulted in the total collapse of many dwellings near its epicentre, a great number of which were traditional mud brick constructions. Rockfalls and landslides have buried villages in the remote, mountainous region.

There has also been substantial damage to buildings further away, including in Marrakech – a city which houses close to a million people. At the time of publishing this article, at least 2,122 people had been killed and more than 2,421 injured.

Sadly these numbers will probably increase. Significant aftershocks are possible in the weeks and months following an earthquake of this magnitude. These may result in the collapse of buildings which were damaged – but remained standing – during the main shock.

Brittle buildings crumbled from the impact

The earthquake in Morocco occurred as a result of the collision between two tectonic plates: the Nubian tectonic plate (which the country itself sits on top of) and the Eurasian tectonic plate, about 500km north of the epicentre. These two plates converge at a grinding pace of about 4mm-6mm per year.

Slower tectonic rates are naturally more difficult to observe, and produce less frequent earthquakes. And since earthquake hazard estimates are strongly influenced by historical records, it’s often difficult to predict the hazard level in regions which have “low seismicity” and no record of strong earthquakes.

In fact, the recent earthquake is the largest on record for Morocco. Near the epicentral region, the second-largest event on record is the magnitude 5.8 Agadir earthquake which struck in 1960, and during which at least 12,000 lives were lost. It showed that even moderate earthquakes can result in devastating loss of life if buildings aren’t made to withstand intense shaking.

Sobering photos and videos have emerged from Morocco, showing a level of structural damage and destruction that’s hard to comprehend. Close to the epicentre in the mountains, villages with rural dwellings, largely constructed from mud brick and stone, seem to have been pulverised. These types of structures are extremely brittle and essentially provide little, if any, seismic resistance.

In more densely populated areas, including the city of Marrakech, various types of damage can be observed, from small local failures to complete building collapses. Much of this can be linked to structures made from stone and masonry – materials known for their brittleness and limited resistance to the strong horizontal shaking generated by a major earthquake.

Although it’s too early to gauge the full extent of the impact, initial reports suggest some of the city’s historical treasures, including the 12th-century Koutoubia Mosque and the renowned red walls, may have suffered some damage.

Much of the damage observed to new construction appears to be attributed to reinforced concrete frame buildings infilled with brittle, hollow red clay bricks. The mortar holding the bricks together quickly cracks, which greatly reduces the stiffness of the overall structure.

To compensate, the reinforced concrete frame will attempt to resist the large horizontal loads. But without an abundance of carefully-placed reinforcing steel embedded in the concrete (particularly where the beams meet the columns) it’s unlikely such a structure will survive a large earthquake. Other lateral load-resisting systems could be employed, such as walls, but these also require careful steel reinforcements – which increases the cost of construction.

A lack of building codes and regulations

Other reasons behind the extensive damage include poor-quality residential construction and ineffective enforcement of building codes and regulations.

These are the same issues we saw earlier in the year following the Turkey-Syria earthquakes. Unfortunately, poor construction is a recurring theme in places where building materials are generally more expensive than labour costs.

Areas that have more stringent building codes and regulations, and that enforce the use of appropriate building materials, generally weather seismic events better. This is particularly true for regions that also apply simple design philosophies, such as the “capacity design” approach.

In essence, this approach compels engineers to carefully consider how and where damage will occur, enabling certain components of a building to absorb and dissipate energy, while ensuring structure doesn’t collapse. It was this simple design philosophy that can be credited for the impressive performance of most reinforced concrete buildings constructed after the 1980s in Christchurch, New Zealand, during and after the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake.

Some engineers advocate even stricter performance goals, such as aiming for buildings that remain nearly undamaged after an earthquake. But the recent events in Morocco and Turkey serve as a stark reminder there are much more pressing needs – particularly in regions with limited economic growth and an insufficient enforcement of standards.

Read more:
Why are shallow earthquakes more destructive? The disaster in Java is a devastating example

Dee Ninis is employed by the School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment at Monash University, and the Seismology Research Centre. She is Vice President of the Australian Earthquake Engineering Society.

Dr Ryan Hoult is a research fellow at the Université catholique de Louvain (UCLouvain), Belgium. He is a recent recipient of a Marie Curie Postdoctoral Fellowship to investigate new reinforcement materials for improved seismic performance of concrete structures.

– ref. Morocco earthquake: experts explain why buildings couldn’t withstand the force of the 6.8 magnitude quake – https://theconversation.com/morocco-earthquake-experts-explain-why-buildings-couldnt-withstand-the-force-of-the-6-8-magnitude-quake-213245

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The government has provided another $1 billion for public and community housing to secure a deal with the Greens to finally pass the Housing Australia Future Fund.

After months of stalling, the Greens agreed to pass the legislation through the Senate this week, despite the government refusing to give ground on the minor party’s demand for controls on rents.

During the battle over the fund, a core Labor promise, there were suggestions from the government that its blocking could end up in its eventual use as a double dissolution bill.

The $10 billion fund will provide an annual $500 million for social and affordable rental housing.

The government earlier this year announced $2 billion for social and affordable housing in an unsuccessful effort to secure the Greens’ backing for the legislation. It also gave a guarantee the annual amount from the fund would be at least $500 million, rather than being able to be variable.

Greens leader Adam Bandt said: “Pressure works. Labor said there was no more money for housing this year and we pushed them to find $3 billion”. He said the Greens would continue to push Labor to put an end to what it called “unlimited rent rises”.

“Renters are on the march, and the Greens will be fighting alongside them all the way,” Bandt said.

Greens housing spokesman Max Chandler-Mather said: “Renters have a national voice for the first time”.

“Greens power secured six times what Labor wanted to spend on social housing in a single year for public and community housing, and now we are going to use that power to win a freeze and cap on rent increases.”

The government used question time in parliament to spruik the coming passage of the bill, which already has the support of some of the other Senate crossbench.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Government provides another $1 billion to finally win Greens’ support for long-delayed housing bill – https://theconversation.com/government-provides-another-1-billion-to-finally-win-greens-support-for-long-delayed-housing-bill-213248

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Erica Mealy, Lecturer in Computer Science, University of the Sunshine Coast

Late last week, Google announced something called the Privacy Sandbox has been rolled out to a “majority” of Chrome users, and will reach 100% of users in the coming months. But what is it, exactly?

The new suite of features represents a fundamental shift in how Chrome will track user data for the benefit of advertisers. Instead of third-party cookies, Chrome can now tap directly into your browsing history to gather information on advertising “topics” (more on that later).

In development since 2019, this change has attracted a great deal of controversy, as some commentators have deemed it invasive in terms of privacy.

Understanding how it works – and whether you want to opt in or out – is important, since Chrome remains the most widely used browser in the world, with a 63% market share as of May 2023 (Safari is in second place with 13%).

Wait, what is a cookie?

In 1994, computer engineer Lou Montulli at Netscape revolutionised the way we browsed the internet with his invention of the “cookie”. For the first time, web pages could remember our passwords, preferences, language settings and even shopping carts.

This method was supposed to be a private exchange of information just between a user and a website – what’s known as a first-party cookie. But within two years, advertisers worked out how to “hack” cookies to track users. These are third-party cookies.

You can think of a first-party cookie like a shop assistant who listens to your preferences and is happy to hold your bags or clothes while you make your selection – but only while you are inside their store.

A third-party cookie is like a bug from an old spy movie. It listens to everything in your room, but only shares the info with its allies. The “spy” can place this cookie on other people’s sites, to record what you visit and what data you enter. If you’ve ever wondered how Facebook has served you an ad about something related to a news story you just read, chances are it’s because you have third-party cookies enabled.

Unregulated online tracking and surveillance via cookies were the default until 2018, when the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulations (GDPR) and the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA) were introduced. If you have noticed more pop-ups notifying you of cookies and asking for your informed consent, you have the GDPR and CCPA to thank.

Read more:
Cookies: I looked at 50 well-known websites and most are gathering our data illegally

The first browsers to turn off support for third-party cookies were Apple’s Safari in 2017 and Mozilla’s Firefox in 2019.

But Google is also a major online advertising company, with ads making up 57.8% of Google’s revenue as of 2023. They have been slowest off the mark in turning off third-party cookies in Chrome. With the introduction of the Privacy Sandbox, they now hope to start turning cookies off sometime in 2024.

How is the Privacy Sandbox different from cookies?

The details on how the Privacy Sandbox collection of features works are rather technical. But here are a few of the most important aspects.

Instead of using third-party cookies to serve you ads across the internet, Chrome will provide something called advertising Topics. These are high-level summaries of your browsing behaviour, tracked locally (such as in your browsing history), that companies can access on request to serve you ads on particular subjects.

Additionally, there are features such as Protected Audience that can serve you ads for “remarketing” (for example, Chrome tracked you visiting a listing for a toaster, so now you will get ads for toasters elsewhere), and Attribution Reporting, that gathers data on ad clicks.

In short, instead of third-party cookies doing the spying, the features these cookies enable will be available directly within Chrome.

Is user tracking necessarily bad?

While Google pitches the Privacy Sandbox as something that will improve user privacy, not everyone agrees.

If these features are switched on, Google – one of the world’s biggest advertising companies – is essentially able to listen to you everywhere on the web.

Tracking technology can arguably benefit us as well. For example, it could be helpful if an online store reminds you every three months you need a new toothbrush, or that this time last year you bought a birthday card for your mum.

Offloading cognitive effort, such as reminders like these, is a great way automation can assist humanity. When used in situations where pinpoint accuracy is required, it can make our lives easier and more pleasant.

However, if you are not comfortable with surveillance, the alternative to third-party cookies may not necessarily be the new Privacy Sandbox in Chrome.

The alternative is to completely disable tracking altogether.

What can you do?

If you don’t want your online activities to be tracked for advertising purposes, there are a few straightforward choices.

By far the most private browsers are specialist non-tracking browsers that prioritise no tracking, such as DuckDuckGo and Brave. But if you don’t want to get that nerdy, Safari and Firefox already have third-party cookies blocked by default.

If you don’t mind some useful targeted advertising, you can leave the Chrome Privacy Sandbox settings on.

If you want to adjust these settings or switch them off, click the three dots in the upper-right corner and go to Settings > Privacy and Security > Ad privacy. It’s unclear if toggling these features off will stop Chrome from collecting these data altogether, or if it just won’t share the data with advertisers. You can find out more details about each feature on the Google Chrome Help page.

Lastly, it’s good to remember nothing truly comes for free. Software costs money to develop. If you’re not paying towards that, then it’s likely you – or your data – are the product. We need to revolutionise how we think about our own data and what value it truly holds.

Read more:
The ugly truth: tech companies are tracking and misusing our data, and there’s little we can do

Erica Mealy is member of the Australian Computer Society (ACS) and the Australian Information Security Association (AISA).

– ref. Google Chrome just rolled out a new way to track you and serve ads. Here’s what you need to know – https://theconversation.com/google-chrome-just-rolled-out-a-new-way-to-track-you-and-serve-ads-heres-what-you-need-to-know-213150

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Huw Griffiths, Associate Professor of English Literature, University of Sydney

It is easy to forget that when Oscar Wilde’s The Importance of Being Earnest was first written and performed in February 1895, Ibsen’s A Doll’s House was already 16 years old. Both plays, in different ways, expose the foundations of society (marriage; class; money; property) to searching critique.

Ibsen’s proto-modernism looks forward to a new century of realist scrutiny, as Nora slams the door on convention at the end of his play. But Wilde’s play looks backwards to older comedies of manners and aims for a similar effect by blowing their old, moral assumptions wide apart.

The Importance of Being Earnest is no less radical than A Doll’s House, but it is much more difficult to translate onto the 21st century stage without preserving it in aspic. Director Sarah Giles pulls the trick off with this new Sydney Theatre Company production.

It is fresh, funny and completely joyous. Wilde’s extraordinary script is delivered with sharp wit by an extraordinary cast and placed within a production that exploits the dialogue for its viciously comic potential.

The price of privilege

In one of very few changes, Giles has slightly expanded the roles of the servants in the play. In doing so, she has afforded us the pleasure of some beautifully comic moments from Sean O’Shea as Algie’s butler, Lane, and Gareth Davies as Merriman, servant to Jack.

More than this, however, the main action of the play now sits a little more uneasily alongside our awareness of the price of privilege. We are now conscious of the labour that has gone into the cucumber sandwiches and muffins, elsewhere launched as social weapons in the “Morning Rooms” and manicured gardens.

Helen Thomson’s Lady Bracknell is as brilliant as you’d expect from the phrase, “Helen Thomson’s Lady Bracknell”: imperious, monstrous, and utterly hilarious.

Some genuinely scene-stealing performances come from Megan Wilding as an exceptionally funny Gwendolen and Brandon McClelland as an exuberantly bumbling Jack. Charles Wu manifests Algie, the closest thing to Wilde’s voice in the play, with an elegantly light touch. Melissa Kahraman contributes an energetic and animated Cecily.

This latter performance, together with Wilding’s as Gwendolen, ensure the central act of the play is just as much a hire-wire act as the opening and closing. The middle part of the play focuses mainly on the female characters. When there is not enough attention paid to the casting and performance of Gwendolen and Cecily, it can drag a little. Not here, where their conversation over tea and cake becomes a battleground of wit and barely concealed violence.

The fascinating liar

At the centre of Wilde’s play is, famously, “a handbag”.

Previous comedies of manners, such as Sheridan’s The School for Scandal, and even Wilde’s own earlier play, A Woman of No Importance, always had secrets at the heart of them. Revealing those secrets confirmed society’s moral codes. The School for Scandal even has an adulterous woman hiding behind a screen for much of the action of the play. Her discovery leads to confessions of guilt, repentance and reconciliation.

Wilde’s genius lies in completely overturning the assumptions behind this comic structure while still using its recognisable format. In place of sin, we have a momentary lapse of concentration from a nanny and a misplaced piece of luggage.

Wilde is looking backwards and taking aim at the traditions that have produced his own society as hypocritical.

In some of his other writing, he explained how this overturning of “truth-telling” could bring about a social and artistic revolution. His brilliant essay, The Decay of Lying, written four years before Earnest, lays out an improbable plan for the future:

Bored by the tedious and improving conversation of those who have neither the wit to exaggerate nor the genius to romance […] Society sooner or later must return to its lost leader, the cultured and fascinating liar.

As with society, so with Art which:

breaking from the prison-house of realism, will run to greet him, and will kiss his false, beautiful lips, knowing that he alone is in possession of the great secret of all her manifestations, the secret that Truth is entirely and absolutely a matter of style.

Read more:
Friday essay: in defence of beauty in art

Absurd fragility

In making us slightly more aware of the social “truths” behind Victorian leisure, this production might have run the risk of undermining Wilde’s revolutionary celebration of the cultured and beautiful lie. What it pulls off, instead, is the Wildean effect of revelling in the pleasures of life’s surfaces while still being uncomfortably aware of their absurd fragility.

When the play made its way into print in 1899, four years after a triumphant London run, it did not have Wilde’s name attached to it. Wilde was in exile in Paris, his health destroyed by the two years of penal servitude he was sentenced to for having sex with men.

This high-profile court case heralded a wave of legal homophobia that echoed through the 20th century. He died in 1900, with his (and our) futures crushed by a society over-keen on telling its own “truths”.

Go to this production and stay for its final moments in which one utterly charming piece of stage business hardly redresses the balance of the century of paranoid homophobia following Wilde’s arrest and imprisonment. But it does a very good job of laughing in its face.

The Importance of Being Earnest is at the Sydney Theatre Company until October 14.

Read more:
On sexuality, the law still caters to the norms of public disgust

Huw Griffiths does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Sydney Theatre Company’s new The Importance of Being Earnest: fresh, funny and completely joyous – https://theconversation.com/sydney-theatre-companys-new-the-importance-of-being-earnest-fresh-funny-and-completely-joyous-211906

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Roger Jones, Professorial Research Fellow, Victoria University

This century, Australia has suffered more frequent and more severe bushfires. The Black Summer fires of 2019–20 were the worst on record for the area burned and property loss.

How much climate change has contributed to these increases is a hot topic. Bushfire risk is dialled up by four switches: fuel amount and condition, fire weather and ignition sources. Untangling these various influences is difficult, so the role played by the warming climate is heavily debated.

Fire-weather measures fire risk on a daily basis, while a fire-climate regime measures fire risk over seasonal and longer time scales. Our research shows almost everywhere in Australia is now in a different fire climate than it was just 20 years ago, with falling relative humidity a key factor. Previous research has also identified these sudden jumps in fire danger.

What caused fire climates to shift? Conventional scientific wisdom assumes the climate’s response to increasing emissions is gradual and linear. When rapid change happens, it’s often thought to be due to climate variability. But that’s not what happened here.

Most Australian fire climate regimes have already shifted

Fire weather is calculated using the Forest Fire Danger Index, which takes into account vegetation dryness, windspeed, temperature and relative humidity.

Obtaining reliable long-term records using these measures is difficult, so we used high quality seasonal and annual climate inputs to estimate the annual fire climate for different regions of Australia from 1957–58 to 2021–22.

We tracked changes in this fire danger index over that 64-year period across all states and the Northern Territory. We also looked at distinct sub regions such as southwest Australia. What we found was startling. Rather than a linear increase, fire regimes tracked along a similar line – and then suddenly jumped. For most states and territories, that happened around the year 2000.

There is no evidence for a long-term trend. Instead, the data shows a shift from one stable fire climate regime to another.

We’re already seeing these changes play out. Whenever you see a news article about intense fires in areas not used to fire, that’s likely to be due to a shift in fire climate. Think of the fires devastating Tasmania’s alpine regions in 2016, killing off many old pencil and King Billy pines.

When did these jumps happen?

Here’s when each region shifted from one fire regime to the next.

You can see the shift in the number of days above “high fire danger”.

When we showed this research to Greg Mullins, former Commissioner of Fire & Rescue New South Wales, he said it was

utterly consistent with what firefighters are experiencing worldwide: more frequent, intense, and damaging bushfires that sometimes are impossible to control.

Is it really that bad? Yes.

For instance, what would have been the one in ten bad fire season under the earlier regime (occurring once in ten years) became, on average, a one in two fire season in the second regime.

That means the worst 10% of fire years were now happening every second year.

When we looked at even worse fire years – the worst year in 20 fire seasons – the shift was shocking. On average, we are now seeing these years twice every five years.

Why did fire climates shift so abruptly?

That’s the big question.

To find out, we analysed all the available input variables for regime shifts and tested their influence on the results. We found wind speed was not a factor. Changes in rainfall had little effect.

So what was it? We found the main driver was relative humidity in combination with higher daily temperatures during the fire season. Recently, we examined global humidity data and found large-scale downward shifts in humidity. In the Southern Hemisphere, that happened in 2002. In the Northern Hemisphere, it happened in 1999.

Humidity reductions in each region of Australia were closely followed by shifts to higher fire season maximum temperatures, amplified by soils drying out.

We also tested global average fire season length from 1979 to 2013 for regime shifts, finding a rapid expansion in 2002. That’s the same year Australia’s median fire danger jumped.

The consequences of these shifts are profound. The unprecedented fires in Canada and Europe, the devastating fires in Hawaii and the increasing frequency of wildfires around the world have their roots in lower relative humidity, which leads to higher daytime temperatures. That, in turn, creates these dangerous new fire regimes.

Why haven’t we heard about these sudden shifts in fire climate? One reason is much of our modelling is built on the assumption the steady accumulation of heat trapped by greenhouse gases leads to linear changes elsewhere.

But as this year’s climate chaos suggests, this assumption may be unfounded.

In our earlier research, we found zero of 32 climate models were able to reproduce the sudden shifts in relative humidity across the globe.

Read more:
‘Australia is sleepwalking’: a bushfire scientist explains what the Hawaii tragedy means for our flammable continent

What does this mean for this year’s fire season?

Many parts of New South Wales, Queensland, the western Northern Territory and northwest Victoria have already dried out, though large forests will keep some moisture after the years of rain. Grass fires are already raging in the Northern Territory.

That suggests the greatest risks this summer will be in grassland, scrubland and suburbs on the fringe of cities. Widespread catastrophic forest fires are probably less likely. But the major fires will return if dry conditions persist.

In fact, in the current climate, land can dry out much faster than it used to, leading to flash droughts which swing from very wet to very dry in a short period of time.

Remember – this current fire regime may not be permanent. As the climate warms further, it’s entirely possible our fire regimes could warp into something even more dangerous. Ensuring our climate models are capable of predicting these changes is an urgent task.

Read more:
Australia’s Black Summer of fire was not normal – and we can prove it

Roger Jones has provided technical advice on fire climate regimes to the Victorian Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action (Formerly the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning).

– ref. Fire regimes around Australia shifted abruptly 20 years ago – and falling humidity is why – https://theconversation.com/fire-regimes-around-australia-shifted-abruptly-20-years-ago-and-falling-humidity-is-why-209689

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The referendum on the Indigenous Voice to parliament will be held on October 14. A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted September 6–9 from a sample of 1,604, gave “no” to the Voice a 57–43 lead in a forced choice, out from a 54–46 “no” lead in August. Initial preferences were 49% “no” (up four), 35% “yes” (down two) and 16% undecided (down two).

In the last week, we have had Voice polls from Essential, Redbridge and Freshwater (see below) as well as Resolve. I have updated the Voice polls graph to reflect these new results. The graph now includes point results and trend lines for Redbridge and Freshwater.

Essential remains easily the best pollster for “yes”, but even this poll had “no” ahead by six points last week. Resolve, Newspoll and Freshwater polls gave “no” a 14 to 18 point lead, while Redbridge is the worst poll for “yes” with a 22-point lead for “no”. In all polling series, there is a worsening trend for “yes”.

Resolve combined its August and September Voice results for a national sample of 3,207, which would have given “no” about a 55.5–44.5 national lead. “No” led in all states except Tasmania, where “yes” was ahead by 56–44 on a small sample size. The leads for “no” ranged from 51–49 in Victoria to 61–39 in Queensland and Western Australia.

The falling polls for “yes” have encouraged many “yes” supporters on social media to attack the pollsters, spuriously claiming that there is something wrong with the polls. Analyst Kevin Bonham addressed many claims of “poll denial” in this long article last Wednesday, written after Newspoll gave “no” a 15-point lead.

Read more:
Albanese records first net negative Newspoll approval as Voice support slumps further

Labor and Albanese also down in Resolve poll

Primary votes in this Resolve poll were 36% Labor (down one since August), 34% Coalition (up one), 12% Greens (up one), 5% One Nation (steady), 2% UAP (steady), 9% independents (down one) and 2% others (steady).

Resolve does not give two party estimates until close to elections, but a calculation based on 2022 election preference flows gives Labor about a 55.5–44.5 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since August. While this is still a large lead, Resolve has been the most favourable pollster for Labor since the 2022 election.

On Anthony Albanese, 47% thought he was doing a poor job and 40% a good job, for a net approval of -7, down nine points. Peter Dutton’s net approval increased five points to -8, with only one point separating Albanese and Dutton’s net approval. Albanese’s lead as preferred PM was reduced to 43–28 from 46–25 in August.

Albanese’s polling honeymoon is over. After winning the May 2022 election, he was in positive double digits on net approval until the last two months, but his most recent net approvals are +3 from Essential, -1 from last week’s Newspoll and -7 from Resolve.

Essential poll: ‘No’ extends lead

A national Essential poll, conducted August 30 to September 3 from a sample of 1,151, gave “no” to the Indigneous Voice to parliament a 48–42 lead, out from a 47–43 “no” lead in August. On voting strength, 41% said they were hard “no” (up three), 7% soft “no” (down two), 30% hard “yes” (down one) and 12% soft “yes” (steady).

In Essential’s two party measure that includes undecided, Labor maintained an unchanged 51–43 lead from the previous fortnight. Primary votes were 32% Coalition (down one), 31% Labor (down two), 15% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (up two), 2% UAP (down one), 7% for all Others (steady) and 6% undecided (steady).

Albanese’s ratings were 46% approve (down two since July) and 43% disapprove (up two), for a net approval of +3, down four points. Dutton’s net approval improved one point to -5.

On Australia’s overall intelligence, 42% thought we were becoming less intelligent, 47% staying the same and 11% becoming more intelligent.

Morgan, Redbridge and Freshwater polls

In last week’s federal weekly Morgan poll, conducted August 28 to September 3 from a sample of 1,404, Labor led by 53–47, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition, 33.5% Labor, 13% Greens and 16% for all Others.

A federal Redbridge poll, conducted August 30 to September 4 from a sample of 1,001, gave Labor a 54.1–45.9 lead, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since mid-August. Primary votes were 37% Labor (down one), 36% Coalition (up four), 13% Greens (up three) and 14% for all Others (down seven).

This poll also gave “no” to the Voice a 61–39 lead, a widening from a 56–44 “no” lead in late July.

The Daily Mail reported Saturday that a national Freshwater poll gave “no” a 59–41 lead, a reversal of a 55–45 “yes” lead in May. Initial preferences were 50% “no” (up 11), 35% “yes” (down 13) and 15% undecided (up two). No fieldwork dates or sample size are available yet, but the poll was taken “last week”.

Queensland Redbridge poll: 55–45 to LNP

The Queensland state election will be held in October 2024. The Poll Bludger reported Saturday that a Redbridge poll, conducted August 26 to September 6 from a sample of 2,012, gave the Liberal National Party a 55–45 lead, from primary votes of 41% LNP, 26% Labor, 14% Greens and 19% for all Others, which did not include a separate figure for One Nation.

This is the first Redbridge Queensland state poll, and it is easily the worst for Labor of any poll this term. I wrote in late August that Queensland polls have been trending to the LNP this year, and this poll looks like a continuation of that trend.

Read more:
LNP takes lead in Queensland Resolve poll, but Labor still far ahead in Victoria

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Voice support and Albanese’s ratings continue to tumble in Resolve and other polls – https://theconversation.com/voice-support-and-albaneses-ratings-continue-to-tumble-in-resolve-and-other-polls-212872

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Buning, Senior Lecturer in Tourism, School of Business, The University of Queensland

Five years after being the first Australian city to introduce rideshare e-scooters, Brisbane is leading the way after many growing pains and a lot of learning.

Our latest research explored tourists’ and residents’ perceptions and experiences of the city. We surveyed both users and non-users of e-scooters and e-bikes in a first-of-its-kind study. We received nearly 1,000 responses, with 29 follow-up interviews.

Cities around the world are making micromobility, such as e-scooters and e-bikes, part of their transport plans. They hope to reap the widely proven benefits of encouraging active transport such as walking and cycling, reducing car trips and traffic congestion, cutting greenhouse gas emissions, improving access throughout cities and promoting residents’ overall wellbeing.

Still, micromobility is very much up for public debate. With more and more tourists using rideshare bikes and scooters and some cities banning them, important questions have been overlooked. How do these devices shape visitor experiences and a city’s image? How do residents view their use? And, what do non-users think?

Well, we found out. In Brisbane, these new forms of transport are being seen in an increasingly positive light as alternatives to private cars, public transport and ridershare services. Comparable to when cars replaced horses, micromobility options offer a convenient and improved transport experience that showcases the best parts of the city.

Read more:
Limes not lemons: lessons from Australia’s first e-scooter sharing trial

Micromobility services are good for a city’s image

When tourists arrive in a new city, they face a common challenge: where to go, what to see and, more importantly, how to get there?

Public transport is considered too stressful, confusing and at times unpleasant. Rideshare cars and taxis are easy and familiar, but they don’t provide an experience and miss out on the nooks and crannies of a destination.

A clear majority of the visitors in our study (83% users, 42% non-users) agreed e-scooters and e-bikes enhanced their tourism experience and their view of the city. This was because these forms of transport greatly increased the places they were able to see and experience. As a result, they regarded Brisbane as an active, modern city.

For many, riding e-escooters was itself one of the best aspects of visiting the city. One tourist told us:

Having an opportunity to use e-scooters while we visit Brisbane allows us to take in the beautiful environment that we would normally miss in a taxi or Uber.

Read more:
E-scooters are becoming wildly popular – but we have to factor in the weather

Another tourist said:

I really enjoyed using it [an e-scooter]. It was a highlight of our trip actually.

Common reasons for such positive views included: accessibility, convenience, sustainability, independence, novelty, spontaneity, maintaining a healthy lifestyle, being outside, sense of community and ease of use.

Similarly, non-user visitors largely view e-scooters as a benefit to the city. They see them as good for its image and/or are indifferent but see the appeal for others.

One tourist, a non-user of e-scooters, said:

I’d say right now, I don’t think it’s giving a bad image at all. On the contrary, I feel it gives an image of providing alternatives to cars.

Brisbane’s robust cycling infrastructure, referred to as “scooter highway” by study participants, was a factor in these positive views for all groups.

Another non-user tourist said:

I feel like most people are generally responsible about riding them, and not in the middle of the sidewalk. I would say they’re a good resource for sure.

Read more:
When 1 in 3 users are tourists, that changes the bike-share equation for cities

How do tourist and resident riders’ views differ?

We asked both tourists and residents for their views. All groups largely viewed e-scooters and e-bikes as alternatives to public transport rather than a supplement. Only a minority used e-scooters in combination with public transport.

Visitors to Brisbane who were not familiar with the public transport system found micromobility options incredibly useful. They were able to explore more attractions more quickly using e-scooters and e-bikes, without the hassle of buying travel cards and working out public transport timetables.

For visitors, micromobility itself is a tourism experience comparable to traditional attractions such as shopping and landmarks. For residents, it’s a convenient, independent, reliable and efficient way to commute, run errands, or go out and meet friends for dinner.

Read more:
Wallets on wheels: city visitors who use e-scooters more spend more

What about non-users?

We found differences between users and non-users. Users have overwhelmingly positive views (74%) of the benefits for themselves and others. Non-users either see the benefits to others, or are sceptical and worried about safety.

However, most non-users (65%) still viewed shared e-scooters and e-bikes as a public resource. Only a minority (35%) saw them as a nuisance.

So, what’s stopping more people using them? Commonly cited barriers included:

• safety concerns
• not knowing how to ride
• expensive
• self-image – not seeing themselves as e-scooter/e-bike riders
• lack of cycling-friendly infrastructure in some areas
• post-COVID hygiene concerns

Read more:
Thinking of swerving high fuel prices with an e-scooter or e-bike? 5 crucial questions answered

Micromobility is gaining ground

The results of our study are clear: micromobility is a win for urban transport and tourism. Visitors and residents who are able and willing to use e-scooters and e-bikes are rewarded with a better way to get around and experience all the city has to offer. Users have strongly positive views of these transport modes and the general city impact.

Efforts to improve safety and access, by lowering personal barriers, would likely improve perceptions of micromobility and of the city. Further innovations in e-scooter design, supported by education campaigns, complementary infrastructure and policy, are likely to lead to greater uptake and more positive views.

Richard Buning receives funding from Brisbane City Council. He is affiliated with Bicycle Queensland.

Wendy Pham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Five years on, Brisbane’s e-scooters and e-bikes are winning over tourists and residents as they open up the city – https://theconversation.com/five-years-on-brisbanes-e-scooters-and-e-bikes-are-winning-over-tourists-and-residents-as-they-open-up-the-city-212464

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachael Jefferson-Buchanan, Lecturer in Human Movement Studies (Health and PE) and Creative Arts, Charles Sturt University

We’ve known for some time the body mass index (BMI) is an inaccurate measuring stick for assessing someone’s weight and associated health. But it continues to be the go-to tool for medical doctors, population researchers and personal trainers.

Why is such an imperfect tool still being used, and what should we use instead?

Read more:
Is BMI a good way to tell if my weight is healthy? We asked five experts

First, what is BMI?

BMI is an internationally recognised screening method for sorting people into one of four weight categories: underweight (BMI less than 18.5), normal weight (18.5 to 24.9), overweight (25.0 to 29.9) or obese (30 or greater).

It’s a value calculated by a measure of someone’s mass (weight) divided by the square of their height.

Read more:
Using BMI to measure your health is nonsense. Here’s why

Who invented BMI?

Belgian mathematician Lambert Adolphe Jacques Quetelet (1796-1874) devised the BMI in 1832, as a mathematical model to chart the average Western European man’s physical characteristics.

It was initially called the Quetelet Index and was never meant to be used as a medical assessment tool. The Quetelex Index was renamed the “body mass index” in 1972.

What’s wrong with the BMI?

Using a mathematical formula to give a full picture of someone’s health is just not possible.

The BMI does not measure excess body fat, it just measures “excess” weight. It does not distinguish between excess body fat or bone mass or musculature, and does not interpret the distribution of fat (which is a predictor of health, including type 2 diabetes, metabolic disorders, and heart disease).

It also cannot tell the difference between social variables such as sex, age, and ethnicity. Given Quetelet’s formula used only Western European men, the findings are not appropriate for many other groups, including non-European ethnicities, post-menopausal women and pregnant women.

The medical profession’s overreliance on BMI may be harming patients’ health as it ignores much of what makes us healthy and focuses only on mass.

Read more:
Renaming obesity won’t fix weight stigma overnight. Here’s what we really need to do

What should we use instead?

Rather than seeing BMI as the primary diagnostic test for determining a person’s health, it should be used in conjunction with other measures and considerations.

Since researchers know belly fat around our vital organs carries the most health risk, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio or waist-to-height ratio offer more accurate measurements of health.

Waist circumference: is an effective measure of fat distribution, particularly for athletes who carry less fat and more muscle. It’s most useful as a predictor of health when combined with the BMI. Waist circumference should be less than 94cm for men and 80cm for women for optimal health, as measured from halfway between the bottom of your ribs and your hip bones.

Waist-to-hip ratio: calculates the proportion of your body fat and how much is stored on your waist, hips, and buttocks. It’s the waist measurement divided by hip measurement and according to the World Health Organisation it should be 0.85 or less for women, and 0.9 or less in men to reduce health risks. It’s especially beneficial in predicting health outcomes in older people, as the ageing process alters the body proportions on which BMI is founded. This is because fat mass increases and muscle mass decreases with age.

Waist-to-height ratio: is height divided by waist circumference, and it’s recommended a person’s waist circumference be kept at less than half their height. Some studies have found this measure is most strongly correlated with health predictions.

Body composition and body fat percentage can also be calculated through skinfold measurement tests, by assessing specific locations on the body (such as the abdomen, triceps or quadriceps) with skin callipers.

Additional ways to gauge your heart health include asking your doctor to monitor your cholesterol and blood pressure. These more formal tests can be combined with a review of lifestyle, diet, physical activity, and family medical history.

What makes us healthy apart from weight?

A diet including whole grains, low fat protein sources such as fish and legumes, eggs, yoghurt, cheese, milk, nuts, seeds, and plenty of fresh fruit and vegetables reduces our risk of heart and vessel disease.

Limiting processed food and sugary snacks, as well as saturated and trans fats can help us with weight management and ward off diet-related illnesses.

Being physically active most days of the week improves general health. This includes two sessions of strength training per week, and 2.5 to five hours of moderate cardio activity or 1.25 to 2.5 hours of vigorous cardio activity.

Weight is just one aspect of health, and there are much better measurements than BMI.

Rachael Jefferson-Buchanan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The body mass index can’t tell us if we’re healthy. Here’s what we should use instead – https://theconversation.com/the-body-mass-index-cant-tell-us-if-were-healthy-heres-what-we-should-use-instead-211190

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jane Simon, Senior Lecturer in Media, Macquarie University

For Zoe Leonard, photography is not just about using a camera. Photography is also about a way of thinking, seeing and interacting.

This focus continues in her recent series Al río/To the River at the Museum of Contemporary Art.

An American artist who works across photography, sculpture and installation, Leonard’s work is wide-ranging in theme but always finely attuned to the role of photography in how the world is ordered and understood.

Interested in the role of photography in mapping and archiving, Leonard often turns her camera towards the uneventful and the everyday.

Leonard has photographed bricked up houses, with windows and doors closed up; and the trunks of trees pressing against fences. In Analogue (1998–2009), she observes the changing urban fabric of New York and the global movement of recycled objects and textiles in secondhand market stalls.

Queer politics also informs her work. Strange Fruit (1992-1997), a collection of fruit skins sewn together with thread, zippers and buttons, engages with loss, mourning and repair – an acknowledgement of the many who died in the early days of the AIDS crisis, including many of Leonard’s friends.

She is most famous, perhaps, for I want a president, a work she typed out in 1992. This work was given new life as a large scale installation on the New York highline during the 2016 US election, the same year Leonard began photographing the Rio Bravo/Rio Grande.

Read more:
How photography can reveal, overlook and manipulate truth: the fearless work of Australian Iranian artist Hoda Afshar

Movement and displacement

Al río/To the River surveys the stretch of river known as Rio Grande in the United States and the Rio Bravo in Mexico. The river marks the politically contentious border between the US and Mexico. Al río/To the River consists of photographs taken between 2016–2022 along the expanse of this river/border, but it is not straightforward documentary.

The images in Al río/To the River imply narratives about movement and displacement. They suggest the underlying hum of surveillance, industry and commerce. They observe the persistence of trees, soil and birds and the movement of water, as well as the rigidity of walls and bridges.

Like much of Leonard’s work, human subjects are often not directly represented. Instead, their presence and stories are felt through objects, structures, detritus.

In one image Leonard gives us the afterlife of a cleaning broom, resting at the border. The broom suggests the labour of cleaning, of workers who constantly negotiate the barrier between the two countries.

The exhibition is a complex portrait of the border that trades in traces. In one sequence of images Leonard focuses on the tyre and rake marks left on soil by patrol cars. Another image presents discarded tyres attached to rope, used by border patrol to flatten soil ready to reveal the footprints of fleeing bodies.

Another sequence of black and white photographs observes the lines of an agricultural field, and a flock of birds taking flight. By the end of the sequence the birds in flight almost fill the frame.

These moments of beauty and movement provide relief from other photographs which document the rigidity of fences and walls, the sharpness of barbed wire.

There is no singular vision here of the river. There is harshness as well as beauty, surveillance and flight.

Read more:
Crossing the US-Mexico border is deadlier than ever for migrants – here’s why

Fragments of a whole

While most of the modestly-scaled photographs are gelatin black and white prints, there are also some colour photographs. The colour appears in a sequence of photographs of bright pink flowers blooming on the ground and a set of close-up photographs of the river’s churning brown water.

At the end of the exhibition a series of iPhone photographs document a live-feed on Leonard’s laptop witnessing people migrating across a bridge.

All these photographs need to be understood cumulatively: each a layer or fragment of a more complex picture.

Leonard’s vantage point is unfixed, shifting. Leonard photographed from both sides of the river. Sometimes she pointed her camera skyward at ominous hovering helicopters. At other times she observes what is at her feet, or the cars queuing ahead of her at border checkpoints.

These vantage points are, of course, Leonard’s own. She emphasises this through her choice not to crop out the black edge of the negative. This thin black frame from the unexposed edge of negative film is a reminder these photographs do not give us direct access to the river/border. Our access is mediated – framed – by Leonard’s camera and position.

The lens flare on one image reminds us these images are the result of a relationship between a lens, the sun and Leonard’s finger on the camera’s shutter.

Al río/To the River is organised around a suite of rooms, and structured into passages which reflect the flow of the river it observes. The exhibition offers a spatial experience as much as a visual one.

In one room the windows reveal Sydney Harbour, which connects to a river with its own complex history. A wall in the same room is covered with a grid of 34 photographs: an echo of the photographic contact sheet, again showing how Leonard brings into conversation the matter, form and scale of photography with questions about the politics of looking.

Zoe Leonard: Al río / To the River is at the Museum of Contemporary Art, Sydney, until November 5.

Read more:
Here’s a better vision for the US-Mexico border: Make the Rio Grande grand again

Image caption: Zoe Leonard, Al río/To the River (detail) 2016–2022 gelatin silver prints, C-prints and inkjet prints. Production supported by Mudam Luxembourg–Musée d’Art Moderne Grand-Duc Jean, Musée d’Art Moderne de Paris, Paris Musées, Museum of Contemporary Art Australia, Graham Foundation for Advanced Studies in the Fine Arts, John Simon Guggenheim Memorial Foundation, Galerie Gisela Capitain and Hauser & Wirth. Image courtesy the artist, Galerie Gisela Capitain, and Hauser & Wirth © Zoe Leonard

Jane Simon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The persistence of nature, the movement of water, the rigidity of walls: photographer Zoe Leonard documents the US–Mexico border – https://theconversation.com/the-persistence-of-nature-the-movement-of-water-the-rigidity-of-walls-photographer-zoe-leonard-documents-the-us-mexico-border-212267

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joe McIntyre, Associate Professor of Law, University of South Australia

In October, Australians are, for the first time in a generation, going to the polls to vote in a referendum.

Unfortunately, we’re out of practice in how to conduct ourselves in a referendum. This process is supposed to promote dialogue about the fundamental rules and identity of our nation.

Yet passions can run hot, and misinformation is rife. How can we make sure our discussions with friends and family are respectful? How can we find reliable sources to ensure we make an informed choice? These seven rules may help.

Read more:
The Voice to Parliament explained

Rule 1: remember there is no right answer

First, there is no one right answer. No side has the exclusive claim to the right(eous) solution, and there are valid concerns and arguments for both sides. You are not racist because you vote “no”. You are not a woke idealist because you vote “yes”.

While the “yes” and “no” campaigns rely heavily on emotional motifs, ultimately each Australian voter is entitled to make their own choice based on the best evidence.

Even some experts disagree, for example, on whether the change is constitutionally risky or not – depending on their risk appetite and ideological viewpoints. There is no single answer, and the consequences of either choice are uncertain.

A proposal to change the Constitution is an opportunity for us to reflect on the type of nation we wish to be. In a democracy, that means valuing a wide range of different perspectives and opinions.

The Uluru Statement offered one vision for recognition of First Nations people in Australia. It was an invitation from a significant body of Indigenous leaders to walk a particular path.

At the referendum we are asking whether that path is, at this time, the specific path the Australian people wish to walk.

Rule 2: don’t approach a referendum as if it is an election

Given the lack of bipartisan support for the proposal, it’s easy to default to the tribal operating mode of the three-year electoral cycle. This is wrong. A referendum is not like an election, in which we support one party or another. Instead, we have three parts:

1. what is being proposed
2. the case for reform
3. the case against reform.

In the bipartisan 1967 referendum, little attention was paid to what was being proposed – with the result that it remains poorly understood.

The ‘67 referendum allowed the government to make special laws for Indigenous people, and ensured all Indigenous people were counted in the census. However many people mistakenly believe the referendum gave Indigenous people the right to vote, or citizenship, or that they were previously counted as flora and fauna.

The benefit of a contested Voice referendum is that there is accurate, impartial and accessible information about the proposal – including its design, history and objectives.

The challenge is to remain alert to the distinction between the factual question of what is being proposed, and the policy question of whether we support it or not.

Rule 3: remember the Constitution belongs to all of us, and we can change it

It’s important to understand some key points about our constitution. Constitutions serve a number of roles: they create the basic political and legal institutions of a society, and regulate how they operate, interact and are limited.

But they are also a potent symbol of national identity and a means of refining and crafting a defining national narrative.

Australia’s Constitution is not a religious text. It was designed to evolve and change. It should not be viewed as static or set in stone.

We have had 44 referendums in our history, at an average of one every 2.7 years.

While only eight referendums have passed, five received majority support and another nine achieved more than 49% support.

The Constitution belongs to all of us, and we all have a right to have a say in its development. We are entitled to renew and reform it – and if something doesn’t work, to try again.

Rule 4: don’t believe (or repeat) everything you hear

Unfortunately, both disinformation and misinformation are rife in the public debate about the Voice. Both campaigns can (lawfully) lie to you.

While the Australian Electoral Commission has an online referendum disinformation register addressing errors about the referendum process, there is no register of misinformation about the Voice proposal itself.

Academics and media organisations (including RMIT ABC Fact Check, AAP Fact Check and AFP Fact Check) are fact-checking claims about the Voice.

Yet it remains difficult to isolate accurate information in a contested space. There remains a key difference between factual claims that can be verified, and subjective claims or opinions which cannot.

This referendum demands we critically reflect on the source, authority and ambitions underlying all information we see, hear and share.

Rule 5: it’s OK to find this hard and confusing

The contested nature of the referendum, endless misinformation, complex social issues and lack of practice with referendums will leave many of us feeling confused and overwhelmed. This is OK. This referendum is complex, and raises many issues.

This is compounded by our lack of legal literacy and civics education. Too often, Australians feel alienated from our legal institutions.

Every year, one in four Australians experience a substantial legal problem. However, only 3% of those problems are resolved through the legal system, with many choosing not to take action due to cost or not knowing what to do, or resolving the matter outside of the courts.

Without meaningful regular engagement with the law, we too often lack the language and framework to understand something so complex and archaic. It’s therefore completely understandable we may struggle with esoteric issues such as constitutional law.

Rule 6: don’t be afraid of expertise

The corollary of this, however, is that we should not be afraid of turning to experts to understand and assess the issue. The referendum is replete with issues that are technical and specialised.

The good news is there are lots of experts trying to help the public understand the issues, including Law Councils, former judges, and legal academics.

Rule 7: if you don’t know, learn

This leads to perhaps the most important point: as citizens, we have an obligation to ensure we are informed about the key ideas and issues before we enter the ballot box.

Fortunately, there are many excellent sources – including podcasts, short videos and discussions, and carefully curated websites – that have been designed by experts to ensure Australians are empowered to make a meaningfully informed choice. These sources are designed to provide impartial, accurate and accessible information.

Ultimately, the Voice proposal is about the dignity offered by listening to diverse opinions. Our challenge is to bring this same approach to our discussions about the referendum. These rules should help.

Read more:
Your questions answered on the Voice to Parliament

Joe McIntyre receives funding from The Law Foundation of South Australia. Together with Jackie Charles, he leads the Voice Legal Literacy Website linked to in this article.

– ref. 7 rules for a respectful and worthwhile Voice referendum – https://theconversation.com/7-rules-for-a-respectful-and-worthwhile-voice-referendum-212974

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Sussex, Associate Professor (Adj), Griffith Asia Institute; and Fellow, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, ANU, Australian National University

Some 560 days have passed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We have repeatedly been reminded about the awfulness of war – the senseless waste of human life and indiscriminate misery caused by the imperial delusions of a self-interested leader.

But the war has also been revealing in other ways. It has repeatedly defied expectations about its scope, impact and duration.

For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the mistaken belief that he could conquer much of Ukraine in a few days highlighted the depth of his hubris. Since then, his decision to continue the onslaught has revealed the ongoing practical costs to the Russian military.

Now, Moscow’s attempt to meet those costs is also showing how the world is beginning to split along broad, albeit fuzzy, lines of competition that could resonate beyond the Ukraine war.

Russia’s war depends on ammunition

Putin’s problem is a simple one. His forces are running out of ammunition – specifically 155mm and 122mm artillery shells, plus 120-mm mortar rounds. The Russian army relies heavily on them: massive artillery fire is central to its military doctrine.

According to an authoritative report by the Royal United Services Institute, Russia fired a whopping 12 million shells at Ukrainian targets in 2022. Despite a more disciplined approach prompted by dwindling war stocks, it is still likely to go through 7 million rounds in 2023.

Russia’s domestic manufacturing capacity – at around 2.5 million shells per year – makes this usage rate clearly unsustainable, with the war set to enter its third year.

An additional complication is the problem of barrel erosion. Artillery guns gradually warp with use and need to be replaced regularly.

So, if Russia is unable to make up the shortfall between what it is firing and what it can produce, its forces will be unable to blunt Ukraine’s counteroffensive for much longer. This makes Russia’s painstakingly constructed “Surovikin Line” (its defensive network of minefields, trenches and tank traps) likely to be more quickly overrun.

Read more:
‘Ukraine is unlikely ever to return to the Russian Empire’: in a new book, Mark Edele unpacks what’s at stake in a bloody war

Limited help, so far, from the BRICS

However, finding new ammunition suppliers is tricky. They must have the capability to quickly produce large volumes of shells that match Russian guns. They also need access to explosive energetic materials, especially the base materials for RDX (also known as hexogen) and TNT, the main ingredients in military-grade explosives.

But there are additional limits to the types of suppliers Russia can realistically seek out. Any nation that provides Moscow with ammunition would end up in dangerous diplomatic waters since the US and the broader West have threatened sanctions against those who aid Russia’s war effort.

As such, Russia’s search for ammunition partners has turned up a hodgepodge of aggrieved, ambitious and opportunistic nations. Many of these can be found in the BRICS grouping (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), which is loosely in favour of a “multipolar” (read: not solely US-dominated) world.

Of the BRICS members, Brazil has been designated by the US as a “major non-NATO ally”. It has ruled out selling arms to Russia, but also to Ukraine.

Although China calls Russia its “no limits” partner, it has also reportedly turned down requests to provide Moscow with munitions. But questions remain about its provision of dual-use technologies and electronics to Moscow, not to mention body armour and armoured personnel carriers.

The South African company Rheinmetall Denel Munition (RDM) has recently announced new deals to supply ammunition to both NATO and non-NATO countries.

But President Cyril Ramaphosa had to publicly deny sending Russia shipments of weapons after the US ambassador to South Africa accused his government of doing so. In a report released in September, an independent commission found “no evidence” that a Russian ship was loaded with ammunition before departing Cape Town in late 2022.

And while India has traditionally been heavily dependent on Russia for its military equipment, New Delhi reacted uneasily after Moscow announced in March it would be unable to meet its arms delivery commitments due to the war.

Other partners emerging

Beyond the BRICS, North Korea has been the most promising candidate to meet Russia’s ammunition needs, since it can mass produce 155mm artillery shells.

Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will reportedly hold a summit in Vladivostok this month, which would follow a visit by Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu to Pyongyang in July.

This has sent the worrying signal that Russia is preparing to abandon its participation in UN Security Council sanctions on North Korea over its nuclear weapons program. The sanctions ban the trade of military equipment and high-end technologies.

Given Moscow’s critical need for arms, North Korea will find itself in the unusual position of having the upper hand if the meeting goes ahead. These negotiations could easily progress from simple financial transactions to the provision of Russian systems for North Korea’s nuclear, guided missile and submarine programs.

Iran is another important piece of Russia’s armaments puzzle. It has already supplied Moscow with numerous Shahed 136 kamikaze drones and hundreds of thousands of artillery shells.

And in April, the Egyptian government was forced to deny accusations it intended to secretly ship some 40,000 rockets to Russia to “avoid problems with the West”.

What this means for global competition

What these nations have in common is that they are all either hostile to the United States, ambivalent towards it, or prepared to have a bet both ways.

Both Iran and Egypt were invited to join the BRICS group last month, along with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Argentina and Ethiopia.

BRICS is by no means a well-developed organisation. It is geographically disparate and has no charter or secretariat to steer a coherent agenda for its work.

But it is reflective of the gradual coming together of nations favouring alternatives to the rules-based order, who tend to equate it with US hegemony. And, like any emergent rival bloc, what it lacks in architecture, it makes up for in potential. Adjusted for purchasing power, the BRICS overtook the G7 in 2023 in terms of total share of global GDP, although its members still lag far behind the G7 members on measures like GDP per capita.

Read more:
Brics expansion: six more nations are set to join – what they’re buying into

Russia’s ammunition woes have certainly reinforced its desire to woo the BRICS. That alone is unlikely to send shivers down the spines of Western policy planners. Yet, it is a reminder that Moscow is continually seeking to counter Western influence where it can, especially in countries where it perceives it to be vulnerable.

It has also been doing so through the presence of the Wagner group in the resource-rich areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. And Russia eagerly promotes anti-West narratives in places where they resonate among sections of society, like South Asia, Indonesia and Malaysia.

Importantly, the same tactics are being adopted by China, albeit in a more muted form.

While Russia’s ammunition woes seem to be an isolated affair, how it seeks to mobilise support among like-minded nations is important.

The more it looks for support in areas where Western influence is muted or tenuous, the broader the competition will become between those favouring a US-led international order and others interested in exploring alternatives.

And on that basis, Russia’s war in Ukraine takes on even greater significance. Instead of a conflict that fits within clear regional boundaries, it is increasingly becoming a war with global ramifications.

Matthew Sussex has received funding from the Australian Research Council, the Fulbright Foundation, the Carnegie Foundation, the Lowy Institute and various Australian government departments and agencies.

– ref. As Russia woos nations to support its war in Ukraine, will fault lines deepen around the globe? – https://theconversation.com/as-russia-woos-nations-to-support-its-war-in-ukraine-will-fault-lines-deepen-around-the-globe-212865

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Carmel Hobbs, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of Tasmania

Australian teens need adults to help them recognise red flags for potentially abusive relationships.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics estimates 2.2 million adults have been victims of physical and/or sexual violence from a partner since the age of 15. Almost 1 in 3 Australian teens aged 18–19 report experiences of intimate partner violence in the previous year.

But physical, sexual, or psychological abuse in teen intimate relationships remains an invisible issue. The First National Action Plan to End Violence Against Women and Children fails to mention it at all and
Australia lacks youth-specific domestic violence support services.

We know teens are experiencing intimate partner violence that is putting their lives in danger. But they are dependent on informal networks for assistance. Abuse can impact all parts of their lives and their age and stage of development make them even more vulnerable to its effects.

I interviewed 17 young people about their experiences of teen intimate partner violence from when they were under 18. They wanted support and insight from the adults around them.

‘I hadn’t experienced a proper relationship before’

Limited relationship experience can prevent young people identifying red flags for intimate partner violence. Interviewee Elise said:

As a young teen, I hadn’t experienced a proper relationship before; I just kind of thought this is how it is.

While physical and sexual violence cross clear lines, Australian teens report difficulty recognising more subtle forms of violence and control, such as emotional and technology-facilitated abuse.

Read more:
The government has released its action plans to end violence against women and children. Will they be enough?

7 red flags that can happen early

Young people identified red flags in their past intimate relationships and described how difficult it was to see them in the moment. On their own these behaviours and actions may not be problematic. For example, spending lots of time together is a relatively normal part of a new intimate relationship.

But concern should arise when these behaviours become part of a pattern. They can become integrated into everyday life, making them difficult to recognise – and they can escalate over time. Here are some examples of red flags for teen intimate relationships that can begin a pattern of violence and abuse:

1. being together all the time, using technology to monitor location when not together and a sense of always “being on call”

2. sharing passwords to social media accounts or devices (or setting up shared profiles)

3. turning up unannounced or “as a surprise”

4. saying “I love you” very early in the relationship, talking about living together or having children. This is sometimes called “love bombing”

5. showering with gifts and grand gestures

6. contacting someone’s friends or family to find out where they are

7. framing controlling behaviours as “care” or “concern”.

Young person Gina said:

We had a joint Facebook [account], because I wasn’t allowed to really talk to people without him seeing it […] He had to have the password.

Ingrid’s partner framed control as care:

He’d just perpetually check where I am, and then sometimes he’d just turn up […] He’d be like, ‘I’m just checking that you’re safe.’

If a teen begins to feel like their autonomy and freedom to make choices are being restricted, it is a clear cause for concern. Jamie said:

I didn’t have contribution into simple things like what movie to watch.

Sam felt like they had to spend time with their partner, even if they didn’t want to:

I’d spend hours […] just watching them play video games, because I didn’t feel like I could go and do something else […] And I hate video games.

Read more:
Think you might be dating a ‘vulnerable narcissist’? Look out for these red flags

6 red flags that suggest escalation

Increasingly problematic (but still difficult to see) behaviours include:

1. framing the relationship as unique or fated, such as saying the partner is the only person who truly understands them and nobody else could ever “love you like I do”

2. isolating a partner by making it difficult for them to spend time with others

3. assuming sexual activity will happen because “they are in a relationship”

4. framing feelings of jealousy as evidence of love

5. “suggesting” how they should dress or look or encouraging exercise or diet changes

6. insults passed off as “just a joke”.

Read more:
‘I couldn’t escape. I wasn’t entirely sure I wanted to’: confusing messages about consent in young adult fantasy fiction

How can you help?

Research shows parents are in a unique position to support teens to foster healthy relationships. Interviewee Addison was among those asking for guidance:

Anybody that can see the relationship [has] red flags. Anybody that is worried for me, I want them to tell me.

Safe and reliable adults can act as role models, ensure safety, involve professionals and empower teens to build safe and healthy relationships.

We can do this by building trusting, open relationships with the teens in our lives, giving them a chance to talk and listening without judgement. If your teenager does not want to talk to you, help them find another person to talk to instead. It’s important to remember they may not respond the way we hope, but providing support and talking about relationships can decrease the risk of them ending up in an abusive relationship.

And we need a national plan to prevent and respond to teen intimate partner violence. It is not the responsibility of teens or their families to solve this issue.

If you suspect your teen is in an abusive relationship, contact 1800 RESPECT (1800 737 732) for advice and information. If you or someone you know is in immediate danger, contact 000.

Read more:
Stuck in a ‘talking stage’ or ‘situationship’? How young people can get more out of modern love

Anglicare Tasmania funded the original research project where data for this article was collected.

– ref. 7 red flags your teen might be in an abusive relationship – and 6 signs it’s escalating – https://theconversation.com/7-red-flags-your-teen-might-be-in-an-abusive-relationship-and-6-signs-its-escalating-212536

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bruno Vicari Stefani, CERC Fellow, Solar Technologies, CSIRO

Solar panel technology has made enormous progress in the last two decades. In fact, the most advanced silicon solar cells produced today are about as good as the technology will get.

So what’s next? Enter “tandem solar cells”, the new generation in solar technology. They can convert a much greater portion of sunlight into electricity than conventional solar cells.

The technology promises to fast-track the global transition away from polluting sources of energy generation such as coal and gas. But there’s a major catch.

As our new research shows, current tandem solar cells must be redesigned if they’re to be manufactured at the scale required to become the climate-saving technology the planet needs.

The solar story so far

A solar cell is a device that turns sunlight into electricity. One important measure when it comes to solar cells is their efficiency – the proportion of sunlight they can convert into electricity.

Almost all solar panels we see today are made from “photovoltaic” silicon cells. When light hits the silicon cell, electrons inside it produce an electric current.

The first silicon photovoltaic cell, demonstrated in 1954 in the United States, had an efficiency of about 5%. That means that for every unit of the Sun’s energy the cell received, 5% was turned into electricity.

But the technology has since developed. At the end of last year, Chinese solar manufacturer LONGi announced a new world-record efficiency for silicon solar cells of 26.81%.

Silicon solar cells will never be able to convert 100% of the Sun’s energy into electricity. That’s mostly because an individual material can absorb only a limited proportion of the solar spectrum.

To help increase efficiency – and so continue to reduce the cost of solar electricity – new technology is needed. That’s where tandem solar cells come in.

A promising new leap

Tandem solar cells use two different materials which absorb energy from the Sun together. In theory, it means the cell can absorb more of the solar spectrum – and so produce more electricity – than if just one material is used (such as silicon alone).

Using this approach, researchers overseas recently achieved a tandem solar cell efficiency of 33.7%. They did this by building a thin solar cell with a material called perovskite directly on top of a traditional silicon solar cell.

Traditional silicon solar panels still dominate manufacturing. But leading solar manufacturers have signalled plans to commercialise the tandem cell technology.

Such is the potential of tandem solar cells, they are poised to overtake the conventional technology in coming decades. But the expansion will be thwarted, unless the technology is redesigned with new, more abundant materials.

Read more:
Is it worth investing in a battery for your rooftop solar? Here’s what buyers need to know (but often can’t find out)

The problem of materials

Almost all tandem solar cells involve a design known as “silicon heterojunction”. Solar cells made in this way normally require more silver, and more of the chemical element indium, than other solar cell designs.

But silver and indium are scarce materials.

Silver is used in thousands of applications, including manufacturing, making it highly sought after. In fact, global demand for silver reportedly rose by 18% last year.

Likewise, indium is used to make touchscreens and other smart devices. But it’s extremely rare and only found in tiny traces.

This scarcity isn’t a problem for tandem solar technology yet, because it hasn’t yet been produced in large volumes. But our research shows this scarcity could limit the ability of manufacturers to ramp up production volumes in future.

This may represent a substantial roadblock in tackling climate change. By mid-century, the world must install 62 times more solar power capacity than is currently built, to enable the clean energy shift.

Clearly, a major redesign of tandem solar cells is urgently needed to enable this exponential acceleration of solar deployment.

Read more:
How to maximise savings from your home solar system and slash your power bills

Ramping up the transition

Some silicon solar cells don’t use indium and require only a small amount of silver. Research and development is urgently needed to make these cells compatible with tandem technology. Thankfully, this work has already begun – but more is needed.

A scarcity of materials is not the only barrier to overcome. Tandem solar cells must also be made more durable. Solar panels we see everywhere today are generally guaranteed to produce a decent amount of electricity for at least 25 years. Perovskite-on-silicon tandem cells don’t last as long.

Solar power has already shaken up electricity generation in Australia and around the world. But in the race to tackle climate change, this is only the beginning.

Tandem solar cell research is truly global, conducted within a range of countries, including Australia. The technology offers a promising way forward. But the materials used to make them must be urgently reconsidered.

Read more:
Despairing about climate change? These 4 charts on the unstoppable growth of solar may change your mind

Bruno Vicari Stefani receives funding from the CSIRO Research Office.

Matthew Wright receives funding from UK Research and Innovation.

– ref. Solar panel technology is set to be turbo-charged – but first, a few big roadblocks have to be cleared – https://theconversation.com/solar-panel-technology-is-set-to-be-turbo-charged-but-first-a-few-big-roadblocks-have-to-be-cleared-210723

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emily Freeman, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, University of Newcastle

That’s getting a bit wild, kids! Why don’t you play something quieter?

How often have you found yourself saying something like this to your children as they’re rolling around on the lounge room floor?

Even if they are smiling and clearly having fun, as parents, we often worry that someone will get hurt or it will turn into aggression, and ultimately, tears.

As a family and child psychology researcher, parents often ask me why children engage in this type of rough-and-tumble play. What is it? Is it good for them? Should I be stopping it?

The short answers are: it’s fun, it’s good for their development and you can encourage a good quality rough play session with a few boundaries.

Read more:
Are your squabbling kids driving you mad? The good/bad news is, sibling rivalry is ‘developmentally normal’

What is rough-and-tumble play?

Rough-and-tumble play is a type of energetic physical play that involves wrestling and chasing in a playful manner.

Parents often refer to it as “roughhousing”, “rumbling” or “play-fighting”.

An interesting thing about rough-and-tumble play is it is not unique to humans. In fact, it’s seen in almost all mammals, from rodents, to wolves, to bears and non-human primates.

Have you ever sat and watched a litter of puppies in their first four to six weeks of life? All they do is eat, sleep and rough-and-tumble play. When a behaviour is seen across numerous species, it suggests the behaviour plays a functional role in development.

There are developmental benefits

Perhaps the most obvious benefit of this type of play is physical development.

Children develop balance, coordination, strength and agility through play fighting, wrestling and rolling around on the floor together or with a parent.

This style of play provides opportunities for children to explore and understand their bodies’ capabilities and limitations. One of our studies on father-child rough-and-tumble play showed children who engaged more frequently in this style of play had a lower injury risk than children who didn’t play like this often. This supports the idea that rough-and-tumble play helps teach children about their physical limits.

Rough-and-tumble play also helps children to develop their social and nonverbal communication skills. In a good bout of roughhousing, children engage in negotiation and cooperation with each other – they learn how to initiate the play, set boundaries and respect the boundaries of their play partner.

Most of this is done nonverbally. Children learn to read their play partner’s signals, such as their facial expressions and body language – are they leaning into the play or pulling away from it? Are they smiling or grimacing?

Read more:
Kids learn valuable life skills through rough-and-tumble play with their dads

Managing emotions

Children also learn how to manage their emotions and self-regulate through this type of play. Think about all the emotions a child may go through while wrestling with their sibling. There might be:

• excitement at the thought of winning and the opportunity to be loud and boisterous

• frustration their sibling is stronger and it’s hard to pin them down or wriggle out from under them

• enjoyment of the bond they are sharing with their sibling

• and maybe a little bit of fear if they get a bit too wild and Mum or Dad breaks it up, or they accidentally knock something over.

Experiencing all these emotions and learning how to navigate them helps children develop emotional resilience.

Helping cognition

Rough-and-tumble play is also related to cognitive development. In one of our recent studies, we showed children who do more rough-and-tumble play have better working memory ability and fewer working memory problems.

Working memory is a cognitive function that allows us to hold and manipulate a small amount of relevant information.

If I gave you a maths problem (such as 4 + 6 – 2) and asked you to solve it in your head, you would be using your working memory (the answer is 8, by the way!). Similarly, if I told you the rules of a rough-and-tumble game, like “sock wrestle”, you would have to keep those rules in mind while playing the game and at the same time trying to win.

How can you encourage good play?

Given all these benefits, how should you encourage good quality rough-and-tumble play?

Most importantly, you want to keep it safe.

Ideally, rough-and-tumble play should happen in large open spaces. Having a designated playmat is a good idea, as is moving the coffee table out of the way if you get a chance before the play starts.

You should also make sure all players actually want to play. Setting some rules around what types of contact are off-limits – no hitting, kicking or biting is a good place to start.

You also want to allow enough time so everyone wears themselves out.

It’s a nice idea to have a signal the kids use to indicate the play is over and which helps build a warm and loving connection – a handshake, high-five or hug, whatever works in your house.

Emily Freeman receives funding from the Hunter Medical Resarch Institute, Department of Health and Aged Care, and the University of Newcastle.

– ref. ‘That’s getting a bit wild, kids!’ Why children love to play-fight and why it is good for them – https://theconversation.com/thats-getting-a-bit-wild-kids-why-children-love-to-play-fight-and-why-it-is-good-for-them-212967

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Song Shi, Associate Professor School of Built Environment, University of Technology Sydney

When China cracked down on money leaving the country in 2017, some Sydney home prices fell 3%, while in other suburbs the restrictions had next to no impact.

This finding – from research Xunpeng Shi and I recently published in the journal Housing Studies – shows Chinese investors have had some effect on local house prices. However, our research also shows the impact has been much less – and less widespread – than many Australians think.

We found the only Sydney suburbs in which Chinese buyers appeared to have had a strong impact on prices were those with large concentrations of Chinese residents.

Getting money out of China used to be easy

Australia’s rules make it harder for foreigners to buy Australian homes, among other things limiting purchases to new dwellings and vacant land.

But until 2017, it was fairly easy to get money out of China.

Among the channels commonly used were AliPay, WeChat, UnionPay, credit cards and underground banks specialising in foreign exchange and holding properties on behalf of Chinese citizens.

On December 30 2016, the People’s Bank of China published an order entitled Administrative Measures on Reporting for Large-Value Transactions and Suspicious Transactions, limiting foreign currency conversions to US$50,000 per person and explicitly banning the purchase of foreign properties.

It came into effect on July 1 2017.

Tighter controls made buying Sydney property harder

Before the order, in 2016, Chinese overseas direct foreign investment in Australia totalled US$11.5 billion.

By 2019 it had slid to US$2.4 billion.

A real estate agent specialising in the Sydney CBD high-end dwellings was quoted in 2020 as saying Chinese buyers dominated the market between 2013 and 2017, but bought only one or two in 2018.

Our study used this rare natural experiment to estimate the effect Chinese buyers had had on Sydney home prices.

We did this by comparing what happened to prices in the suburbs with a high concentration of Chinese owners to what happened in those with few Chinese owners.

To do so, we split Sydney’s 678 suburbs into “Chinese” and “non-Chinese”, based on their populations in the 2016 Census.

Prices fell 3% in these suburbs – with little impact elsewhere

We compared prices 18 months before and 18 months after the change, using a number of different cutoff points to define “Chinese” and “non-Chinese” suburbs.

We found China’s restrictions pushed down prices in what we defined as Sydney’s “Chinese” suburbs by around 3%. In contrast, the restrictions had next to no impact on prices in other suburbs.

This remained the case when we checked our results against the ten most “Chinese” suburbs identified by the publication Sydney Suburb Reviews: Haymarket, Carlingford, Chippendale, Zetland, Chatswood, Ultimo, Eastwood, Rhodes, Burwood, and Hurstville.

It also remained the case when we took into account other changes in Australian foreign investment rules during the period.

Overall, Chinese buyers had a limited impact

Our findings have important implications. They suggest ongoing concerns about Chinese capital and Chinese investors driving up Australian home prices and exacerbating affordability problems are overstated.

Foreign investment should be welcomed to the extent that it helps boost Australia’s housing supply. Our study found its effect on housing affordability is marginal and limited to particular suburbs.

Read more:
Think curbing overseas migration will end the housing crisis? It won’t – and we can’t afford to do it

Song Shi receives funding from Australia-China Relations Institute at University of Technology Sydney. Song Shi has an honorary appointment of ACRI Research Associate.

– ref. How much did Chinese investors drive up Sydney home prices? It’s less than you might think – https://theconversation.com/how-much-did-chinese-investors-drive-up-sydney-home-prices-its-less-than-you-might-think-212186

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

In his relatively brief time as prime minister, Anthony Albanese has had very extensive contact with US President Joe Biden. According to the prime minister’s office, Albanese has had four formal meetings with him, plus two Quad meetings, and several other less formal discussions. They’ll rub shoulders again at the G20 this weekend in India.

Biden will also host Albanese for a state visit to Washington next month.

The relationship between the Labor government and the US is close, as is that, it seems, between the two leaders. But one, relatively modest (in Australian eyes), Albanese request – for the Americans to drop their bid to extradite Julian Assange – has fallen on firmly blocked ears.

Later this month, a delegation of federal parliamentarians is to travel to Washington to lobby, ahead of the Albanese visit. Its composition reflects how the issue spans the political spectrum. It includes former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce, Tony Zappia (Labor), Alex Antic (Liberal), Monique Ryan (independent), and Peter Whish-Wilson and David Shoebridge, both from the Greens.

The trip is being privately financed by the Assange campaign. Crowd-funding attracted more than 800 donors and raised some A$65,000 to cover the trip.

The parliamentarians will lobby members of congress and seek meetings with the State Department and the Department of Justice. Australia’s ambassador to the US, Kevin Rudd, will no doubt be busy arranging appointments. The group is also set to talk with non-government organisations including the American Civil Liberties Union, the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression, and the Committee to Protect Journalists and Reporters Without Borders.

The Assange story is well known.

His WikiLeaks’ publication in 2010 of a trove of US intelligence about American activities in Iraq and Afghanistan, leaked by then-intelligence officer Bradley (now Chelsea) Manning, was highly damaging for the Americans. The material was widely published internationally, including in Australia.

Assange took long-term refuge for years in the embassy of Ecuador in London. Finally he was thrown out of there; for years he has been in a British prison, fighting through the court system to try to prevent his extradition.

Albanese says the Assange affair has gone on too long; since Labor was elected, hopes for progress on his repatriation have waxed and waned.

Read more:
A rocky diplomatic road: Julian Assange’s hopes of avoiding extradition take a blow as US pushes back

A bad sign came earlier this year when US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, at a press conference in Australia with Foreign Minister Penny Wong, said he understood Australians’ sensitivities but declared it was “very important that our friends here understand our concerns about this matter”.

The actions that he has alleged to have committed risked very serious harm to our national security, to the benefit of our adversaries, and put named human sources at grave risk – grave risk – of physical harm, and grave risk of detention.

More positive sentiments from the US embassy in Canberra came to nothing.

By any logic, the US has undercut its own case against Assange by its treatment of Manning, who was pardoned by President Barack Obama. On that precedent, surely, leniency should be extended to Assange.

Moreover, a distinction should be made between the leaking of official material and the publication of the material, which goes to media freedom.
Joyce argues on another front: “extraterritoriality is a very dangerous precedent”.

Julian Assange did not commit a crime in Australia – in fact he was given a Walkley [for WikiLeaks’ journalism]. He is not a citizen of the United States. He was not present in the United States when something was done in breach of US law.

If the Americans can extradite an Australian to America after an affront to one of their laws, even though he is not a citizen and never committed a crime in America, how long before the Chinese ask for the same?

Read more:
A new book argues Julian Assange is being tortured. Will our new PM do anything about it?

Simon Jackman, an expert in US politics at the University of Sydney, says it is good the delegation is going, as it shows the breadth of support for action. But he stresses the difficulty of making progress with the Americans.

Among the obstacles are the strong feelings about Assange in the US national security establishment, and the political situation Biden is facing.

Jackman says the Assange matter has become conflated, in the national security context, with the Edward Snowden affair – the case of a National Security Agency contractor who leaked a large volume of Five Eyes information, which arguably had far more damaging fallout than the 2010 leak.

Snowden is now in Russia, having escaped the US justice system – which has probably made the national security establishment even more determined to pursue Assange, Jackman says.

There is also strong feeling against Assange among some Democrats, in the wake of the WikiLeaks publication of emails that harmed Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential bid.

Labor MP Julian Hill has highlighted a further serious complication in appeals for Biden to act. The Justice Department is spearheading the pursuit of Assange. Biden, over a long period, has been strong in his rhetoric about not interfering with that department. Australia is asking him to go back on that principle – and at a time when the department is acting against Donald Trump.

More than logic or justice, the Assange affair has become a matter of raw American politics. It is the worst of times to be making representations. With the presidential election looming next year, with a massive challenge facing the Democrats, Biden will not want to do anything to provoke his base.

Assange’s cause is, it seems – at least so far – something to which the US-Australia official friendship does not stretch.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. View from The Hill: Australia’s bid for Julian Assange’s freedom presents formidable problems for Joe Biden – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-australias-bid-for-julian-assanges-freedom-presents-formidable-problems-for-joe-biden-213152

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bronwyn Carlson, Professor, Indigenous Studies and Director of The Centre for Global Indigenous Futures, Macquarie University

Artificial intelligence (AI) relies on its creators for training, otherwise known as “machine learning.” Machine learning is the process by which the machine generates its intelligence through outside input.

But its behaviour is determined by the information it is provided. And at the moment, AI is a white male dominated field.

How can we ensure the evolution of AI doesn’t further encroach on Indigenous rights and data sovereignty?

AI risks to Indigenous art

AI has the ability to generate art, and anyone can “create” Indigenous art using this machine. Even before AI, Aboriginal art has widely been appropriated and reproduced without attribution or acknowledgement, particularly for tourism industries.

And this could worsen with people now being able to generate art through AI. This is an issue not just experienced by Indigenous people, with many artists affected by their art styles being misappropriated.

Indigenous art is embedded with history and connects to culture and Country. AI-created Indigenous art would lack this. There are also implications for financial gain bypassing Indigenous artists and going to the producers of the technology.

Including Indigenous people in creating AI or deciding what AI can learn, could help minimise exploitation of Indigenous artists and their art.

Baca juga:
AI can reinforce discrimination — but used correctly it could make hiring more inclusive

What is Indigenous data sovereignty?

In Australia there is a long history of collecting data about Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. But there has been little data collected for or with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. Aboriginal scholars Maggie Walter and Jacon Prehn write of this in the context of the growing Indigenous Data Sovereignty movement.

Indigenous Data Sovereignty is concerned with the rights of Indigenous peoples to own, control, access and possess their own data, and decide who to give it to. Globally, Indigenous peoples are pushing for formal agreements on Indigenous Data Sovereignty.

Many Indigenous people are concerned with how the data involving our knowledges and cultural practices is being used. This has resulted in some Indigenous lawyers finding ways to integrate intellectual property with cultural rights.

Māori scholar Karaitiana Taiuru says:

If Indigenous peoples don’t have sovereignty of their own data, they will simply be re-colonised in this information society.

How mob have been using AI

Indigenous people are already collaborating on research that draws on Indigenous knowledges and involves AI.

In the wetlands of Kakadu, rangers are using AI and Indigenous knowledges to care for Country.

A weed called para grass is having a negative impact on magpie geese, which have been in decline. While the Kakadu rangers are doing their best to control the issue, the sheer size of the area (two million hectares), makes this difficult.

Collecting and analysing information about magpie geese and the impact of para grass using drones is having a positive influence on goose numbers.

Projects like these are vital given the loss of biodiversity around the globe that is causing species extinctions and ecosystem loss at alarming rates. As a result of this collaboration thousands of magpie geese are returning to Country to roost.

This project involves Traditional land owners (collectively known as Bininj in the north of Kakadu National Park and Mungguy in the south) working with rangers and researchers to help protect the environment and preserve biodiversity.

By working with Traditional Owners, monitoring systems were able to be programmed with geographically-specific knowledge, not otherwise recorded, reflecting the connection of Indigenous people with the land. This collaboration highlights the need to ensure Indigenous-led approaches.

In another example, in Sanikiluaq, an Inuit community in Nunavut, Canada, a project called PolArtic uses scientific data with Indigenous knowledges to assess the location of, and manage, fisheries.

Changing climate patterns are affecting the availability of fish, and this is another example where Indigenous knowledges are providing solutions for biodiversity issues caused by the global climate crisis.

Indigital is an Indigenous-owned profit-for-purpose company founded by Dharug, Cabrogal innovator Mikaela Jade. Jade has worked with traditional owners of Kakadu to use augmented reality to tell their stories on Country.

Indigital is also providing pathways for mob who are keen to learn more about digital technologies and combine them with their knowledges.

Baca juga:
How should Australia capitalise on AI while reducing its risks? It’s time to have your say

Future challenges and opportunities for Indigenous inclusion

Although AI is a powerful tool, it is limited by the data which inform it. The success of the above projects is because AI was informed by Indigenous knowledges, provided by Indigenous knowledge holders who have a long held ancestral relationship with the land, animals and environment.

Research indicates AI is a white male-dominated industry. A global study found 12% of professionals across all levels were female, with only 4% being people of colour. Indigenous participation was not noted.

In early June, the Australian government’s Safe and Responsible AI in Australia discussion paper found racial and gender biases evident in AI. Racial biases occurred, the paper found, in situations such as where AI had been used to predict criminal behaviour.

The purpose of the study was to seek feedback on how to lessen potential risks of harm from AI. Advisory groups and consultation processes were raised as possibilities to address this, but not explored in any real depth.

Indigenous knowledges have a lot to offer in the development of new technologies including AI. Art is part of our cultures, ceremonies, and identity. AI-generated art presents the risk of mass reproduction without Indigenous input or ownership, and misrepresentation of culture.

The federal government needs to consider Indigenous Knowledges informing the machine learning informing AI, supporting data sovereignty. There is an opportunity for Australia to become a global leader in pursuing technology advancement ethically.

Dr Peita Richards is the recipient of an Office of National Intelligence, National Intelligence Postdoctoral Grant (project number 202308) funded by the Australian Government.

Bronwyn Carlson tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.

– ref. Indigenous knowledges informing ‘machine learning’ could prevent stolen art and other culturally unsafe AI practices – https://theconversation.com/indigenous-knowledges-informing-machine-learning-could-prevent-stolen-art-and-other-culturally-unsafe-ai-practices-210625

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Scarlett Howard, Lecturer, School of Biological Sciences, Monash University

Everybody loves bees, but their cousins the wasps often provoke a far less friendly reaction. The much-maligned insects often inspire fear, disgust or even the “kill it with fire” response.

The stereotypical wasp is the angular, angry-looking vespid with black and yellow stripes known as the European wasp (Vespula vulgaris). It has a reputation for aggression, stinging multiple times and contributing little to society. But that’s just one of more than 100,000 known wasp species with a wide range of appearances, many of which don’t even sting.

In our work with wasps, we have found these innocent insects have done little to deserve our scorn. In fact, they have surprisingly complex minds and can play important ecological roles.

Our latest study, published in Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology, shows European wasps have impressive abilities to learn visual tasks in different ways depending on how we train them. It adds to a growing body of research about what wasp’s minds can do – including recognising human faces and learning other complex tasks.

Read more:
Are they watching you? The tiny brains of bees and wasps can recognise faces

How to train a wasp

European wasps are central-place foragers, which means they will remember and return to a profitable food source – be that sugar, meat or your soft drink at a BBQ. This behaviour allows us to train individual wasps to return to our experiment throughout a day.

We offer the wasps sugar water, and then place an identification dot on each individual. A wasp will then continue returning to participate in experiments as long as we are offering a sugary reward.

The wasps in our study were enthusiastic volunteers who would fly some distance to participate. In our experiments, wasps needed to undergo ten trials to learn a visual task, and then a further ten trials without reward to test if they had learnt.

Wasps received sugar water for correct choices in learning, and continually returned to the experiment to finish all the trials.

What did the wasps learn?

We trained wasps to discriminate between two different hues of blue cards. The colours are quite similar to wasp vision, so it is a tricky task.

We evaluated three ways of training wasps to determine how they learned best.

First, we used absolute conditioning to train the wasps to discriminate between the colours. In this method, wasps were given sugar on the card of the correct colour without seeing the other colour. We introduced cards of the other colour as well to test whether the wasps could discriminate between the two.

The second training method was appetitive differential conditioning. In this approach, both colours of card were present during training. Wasps were rewarded for landing on the correct colour and received no outcome if they landed on the incorrect colour.

The third training framework was appetitive-aversive differential conditioning, where wasps were provided with a sugar reward for landing on the correct colour and tasted a bitter liquid when they landed on the incorrect colour. Again, both colours were present during learning.

With absolute conditioning, the wasps failed to successfully identify the correct colour in tests. However, when trained with either the appetitive or appetitive-aversive differential conditioning, they did pass the colour test.

This result tells us it was important for wasps to view and compare both colours simultaneously to enable learning. Their learning was actually best when there was a sweet reward on one colour and a bitter liquid on the other.

What else do we know about wasp intelligence?

Scientists are becoming increasingly interested in wasp intelligence.

One recent study showed two species of hornets (a kind of wasp) could learn to discriminate between two colours when one colour was associated with sugar water. The hornets could then reverse that learning when the rewarding colour was switched. This reverse learning task is challenging for small brains to solve.

Other studies have shown paper wasps have evolved specialised abilities for learning faces. One species of paper wasp can differentiate among normal wasp face images more rapidly and accurately than non-face images or manipulated faces. This allows for a comparison between how facial recognition may have evolved in small insect brains compared to larger primate brains.

Researchers have also shown that wasps (and bees) can learn to discriminate between images of human faces.

The role of wasps in pollination and pest control

Wasps play an important role in many ecosystems by controlling pests and pollinating flowers. Many Australian orchids, for example, rely on wasps for pollination – as do hundreds of other plant species.

However, wasp pollination has been relatively poorly studied. While the economic value of pollination by bees and other insects has been well researched, the extent of wasp contributions to crop production is currently unknown.

Many wasps eat critters we consider pests, such as bugs, spiders, cockroaches and flies. Indeed, some species of wasp are sold commercially as pest control agents.

Why we respect wasps

Despite their poor public image, wasps display intelligence, and can be useful in agriculture if well managed.

We hope our new work will allow people to appreciate the complexity, intelligence, and value of these misunderstood animals and the importance they can have in the environment. Additionally, as wasps can learn to recognise faces, perhaps being nice to them is a good strategy.

Scarlett Howard has received funding from the Australian Government, RMIT University, Fyssen Foundation, L’Oreal-UNESCO, Australian Academy of Sciences, Hermon Slade Foundation, Deakin University, and Monash University. She has been affiliated with Pint of Science Australia and Triple RRR.

Adrian Dyer receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the USAF AOARD, and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.

– ref. Many people hate wasps, but they’re smarter than you might think – and ecologically important – https://theconversation.com/many-people-hate-wasps-but-theyre-smarter-than-you-might-think-and-ecologically-important-212706

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dulani Jayasuriya, Lecturer in Accounting and Finance, University of Auckland

On the eve of the Rugby World Cup kicking off, there have already been whispers of teams spying on each other. Inevitable gamesmanship, perhaps, but there’s no doubt cheating in sport is a problem authorities struggle to combat.

Our new machine learning model could be a game changer when it comes to detecting questionable behaviour and unusual outcomes – especially the practice of match fixing.

Currently, the act of altering match outcomes for personal or team gain is largely picked up through abnormalities in sports betting markets. When bookmakers notice unusual odds or changes in the betting line, they alert regulators.

But this approach is limited and often fails to identify all match fixing, particularly in less popular sports or leagues. Here is where machine learning can help.

Essentially a subset of artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning acts as a digital probe: mining sports data, revealing hidden patterns, and flagging unusual events. Machines can delve into team performance and unexpected fluctuations, exploring all facets of sports events.

Using AI to spot unusual activity

As part of our research, we introduced the concept of “anomalous match identification”, which involved identifying irregular outcomes in games, no matter what the underlying causes might be.

There could be various factors at play, from strategic losses for future advantage – such as the practice of “tanking” in the US National Basketball league (NBA) – to marketing tactics to boost ticket sales, or just a day of poor performance.

Our research model allows us to flag unusual game results and turn them over to regulators for deeper investigation. By leveraging machine learning, we can spot abnormal matches by comparing our predictions with the actual game results.

Read more:
Why the police should use machine learning – but very carefully

When we discuss anomalies in sports, we’re talking about matches that stand out from the norm.

While match fixing – deliberate manipulation of results for gain – is one possible explanation for unusual game results, it’s not the only one. Recognising the many reasons behind unusual match results can also help improve our understanding of the complexities of sports.

In the face of an unusual or unexpected result, spectators and officials may ask themselves: was this the result of an unforeseen strategy or are there other influences at play?

Learning from basketball

Our research methodology involved training machine learning algorithms to discover patterns between specific past events and subsequent game results.

Once these relationships are established, the algorithms can forecast likely future match outcomes. The discrepancies between these predictions and the actual results can flag potentially abnormal matches.

To test our model, we looked at whether there were any out-of-the-ordinary matches in the 2022 NBA playoffs. We built models using data from 2004 to 2020 to forecast match outcomes and then compared what the machine predicted with actual game results.

We found several anomalies in the 2022 playoffs, particularly in a series of games between the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks. In their seven matches against each other in May 2022, Dallas won four games and Phoenix won three.

Read more:
Who will win the 2023 Rugby World Cup? This algorithm uses 10,000 simulations to rank the contenders

According to the data, the anomalies in the 2022 playoffs included a 0.0000064 probability of the Suns and Mavericks actually playing against each other in the semi-final series of NBA’s Western Conference – which includes 15 teams.

We also identified several players with performances during the playoffs that were particularly abnormal based on the data from their previous games.

This is not to say there was any match fixing involved. Rather, our results flag games and players that could then be followed up by regulators if match fixing was a concern – which it was not, this was simply an example to test the model.

This approach to spotting anomalies within a series of matches can be applied across many sports.

Scrutinising a significant number of anomalies can offer valuable insights into unusual match events, helping regulatory bodies and sports organisations conduct thorough investigations and uphold fair competition.

Encouraging trust in sports

Though our study concentrates on specific sports, the principles and techniques can expand to other arenas.

The study shows that machine learning can be utilised to help safeguard the integrity of sports competitions, and to assist regulatory bodies, sports organisations and law enforcement agencies maintain fairness and public trust.

But as we embrace the potential of machine learning, we must also navigate the ethical implications and ensure its transparent use.

The future of sports may well see artificial intelligence become the fans’ ally, helping ensure a level playing field where talent excels, and spectators revel in the authenticity of sporting events.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Machine learning can level the playing field against match fixing – helping regulators spot cheating – https://theconversation.com/machine-learning-can-level-the-playing-field-against-match-fixing-helping-regulators-spot-cheating-209392