Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Martin Jucker, Senior Lecturer in Atmospheric Science, UNSW Sydney

Australia’s south and east have seen freezing temperatures and wild weather this winter. At the same time, the continent as a whole – and the globe – have continued to warm.

What’s going on? As ever, it’s hard to pinpoint a single cause for weather events. But a key player is likely an event unfolding high above Antarctica, which itself may have been triggered by a heatwave at surface level on the frozen continent.

Here’s what’s happening – and what it might mean for the rest of this year’s weather.

When the stratosphere heats up

Out story begins in the cold air over Antarctica. July temperatures in the stratosphere, the layer of air stretching between altitudes of around 10 and 50 kilometres, are typically around –80°C.

The winds are also very strong, averaging about 300 kilometres per hour in winter. These cold, fast winds loop around above the pole in what is called the stratospheric polar vortex.

Occasionally, persistent high air pressure in the lower atmosphere can influence large-scale waves that extend around the globe and up into the stratosphere. There they cause the strong winds to slow down, and the air high above the pole to become much warmer than normal.

In extreme situations the stratospheric winds can completely break down, in what is called a “sudden stratospheric warming” event. These events occur every few years in the northern hemisphere, but only one has ever been observed in the south, in 2002 (though another almost happened in 2019).

Pushing polar weather our way

Once the polar vortex is disturbed, it can in turn influence the weather at the surface by steering weather systems from the Southern Ocean towards the Equator. However, this is a slow process.

The impact at the surface may not be felt until a few weeks or even months after the initial weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex. Once it begins, the stratospheric influence can prevail for more weeks or months, and helps meteorologists make long-range weather forecasts.

In climate science terms, the weak stratospheric winds put an atmospheric system called the Southern Annular Mode into a negative phase. The main effect of this on surface weather is to bring westerly winds further north.

In winter, this means polar air outbreaks can reach places like Sydney more easily. As a result, we see more rain over much of southern Australia, and snowfall in alpine regions. In spring and summer it means westerly winds blow over the continent before reaching the east coast, bringing warm and dry air to southeastern Australia.

The exact impact of a weaker polar vortex depends on how much and for how long the weather systems are being pushed further northward. It will also depend on other weather influencers such as El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole.

This winter’s weirdness

Unpicking exactly why any weather event occurs is tricky at the moment, because global weather has been absolutely crazy over the past 12 months or so. Global temperatures are much higher than usual, which is making unusual weather very common.

But there are indications that the stratosphere is having some influence on our weather this winter.

The stratospheric polar vortex started to warm in mid-July, and is about 20°C warmer than the long-term average. At the time of writing, the winds slowed down to about 230 kilometres per hour, 70 kilometres per hour slower than average.

These numbers mean that, technically, the event does not qualify as a sudden stratospheric warming. However, further warming may still occur.

If we look at how southern hemisphere winds have evolved in the past few weeks, we see a pattern which looks like what we would expect from a sudden stratospheric warming.

First, we see warming in the stratosphere which is at first accompanied by a poleward shift of weather systems.

The stratosphere’s influence then propagates downward and seems to induce many weeks of weather systems shifted towards the equator.

This coincides with the period of cold and rainy weather along Australia’s east coast in late July and the beginning of August. Forecasts suggest the Southern Annular Mode will be a long way from normal conditions in the first half of August – four standard deviations below average, which is extremely rare.

A surface disturbance

The main reason for the polar vortex to slow down is disturbances from the surface. Weather over the Amundsen Sea near Antarctica in the South Pacific is an important source of these disturbances.

This year, we have seen disturbances of this sort. There have been near-record surface temperatures around Antarctica.

These disturbances may be due to the globally high ocean temperatures, or even lingering effects of the eruption of the Hunga Tonga volcano in 2022. But more research will be required to confirm the causes.

What should we expect for the rest of the year?

There are two pathways until the end of the year. One is that the stratospheric winds and temperatures recover to their usual values and no longer influence surface weather. This is what the forecasts from Ozone Watch seem to suggest.

Another is that the stratosphere keeps warming and the winds keep being slower all the way into summer. In this scenario, we would expect a persistent negative Southern Annular Mode, which would mean a spring and potentially even summer with warmer and drier than usual weather over southeastern Australia, and a small ozone hole.

The seasonal forecasting models from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts seem to favour this second scenario.

Martin Jucker receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the NSW Government.

– ref. Antarctic heat, wild Australian winter: what’s happening to the weather and what it means for the rest of the year – https://theconversation.com/antarctic-heat-wild-australian-winter-whats-happening-to-the-weather-and-what-it-means-for-the-rest-of-the-year-236067

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emily Burch, Accredited Practising Dietitian and Lecturer, Southern Cross University

If you spend any time looking at diet and lifestyle content on social media, you may well have encountered a variety of weight loss “hacks”.

One of the more recent trends is a home-made drink called ricezempic, made by soaking uncooked rice and then straining it to drink the leftover starchy water. Sounds delicious, right?

Its proponents claim it leads to weight loss by making you feel fuller for longer and suppressing your appetite, working in a similar way to the sought-after drug Ozempic – hence the name.

So does this drink actually mimic the weight loss effects of Ozempic? Spoiler alert – probably not. But let’s look at what the evidence tells us.

How do you make ricezempic?

While the recipe can vary slightly depending on who you ask, the most common steps to make ricezempic are:

1. soak half a cup of white rice (unrinsed) in one cup of warm or hot water up to overnight

2. drain the rice mixture into a fresh glass using a strainer

3. discard the rice (but keep the starchy water)

4. add the juice of half a lime or lemon to the starchy water and drink.

TikTokers advise that best results will happen if you drink this concoction once a day, first thing in the morning, before eating.

The idea is that the longer you consume ricezempic for, the more weight you’ll lose. Some claim introducing the drink into your diet can lead to a weight loss of up to 27 kilograms in two months.

Resistant starch

Those touting ricezempic argue it leads to weight loss because of the resistant starch rice contains. Resistant starch is a type of dietary fibre (also classified as a prebiotic). There’s no strong evidence it makes you feel fuller for longer, but it does have proven health benefits.

Studies have shown consuming resistant starch may help regulate blood sugar, aid weight loss and improve gut health.

Research has also shown eating resistant starch reduces the risk of obesity, diabetes, heart disease and other chronic diseases.

Resistant starch is found in many foods. These include beans, lentils, wholegrains (oats, barley, and rice – particularly brown rice), bananas (especially when they’re under-ripe or green), potatoes, and nuts and seeds (particularly chia seeds, flaxseeds and almonds).

Half a cup of uncooked white rice (as per the ricezempic recipe) contains around 0.6 grams of resistant starch. For optimal health benefits, a daily intake of 15–20 grams of resistant starch is recommended. Although there is no concrete evidence on the amount of resistant starch that leaches from rice into water, it’s likely to be significantly less than 0.6 grams as the whole rice grain is not being consumed.

Ricezempic vs Ozempic

Ozempic was originally developed to help people with diabetes manage their blood sugar levels but is now commonly used for weight loss.

Ozempic, along with similar medications such as Wegovy and Trulicity, is a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist. These drugs mimic the GLP-1 hormone the body naturally produces. By doing so, they slow down the digestive process, which helps people feel fuller for longer, and curbs their appetite.

While the resistant starch in rice could induce some similar benefits to Ozempic (such as feeling full and therefore reducing energy intake), no scientific studies have trialled ricezempic using the recipes promoted on social media.

Ozempic has a long half-life, remaining active in the body for about seven days. In contrast, consuming one cup of rice provides a feeling of fullness for only a few hours. And simply soaking rice in water and drinking the starchy water will not provide the same level of satiety as eating the rice itself.

Other ways to get resistant starch in your diet

There are several ways to consume more resistant starch while also gaining additional nutrients and vitamins compared to what you get from ricezempic.

1. Cooked and cooled rice

Letting cooked rice cool over time increases its resistant starch content. Reheating the rice does not significantly reduce the amount of resistant starch that forms during cooling. Brown rice is preferable to white rice due to its higher fibre content and additional micronutrients such as phosphorus and magnesium.

2. More legumes

These are high in resistant starch and have been shown to promote weight management when eaten regularly. Why not try a recipe that has pinto beans, chickpeas, black beans or peas for dinner tonight?

3. Cooked and cooled potatoes

Cooking potatoes and allowing them to cool for at least a few hours increases their resistant starch content. Fully cooled potatoes are a rich source of resistant starch and also provide essential nutrients like potassium and vitamin C. Making a potato salad as a side dish is a great way to get these benefits.

In a nutshell

Although many people on social media have reported benefits, there’s no scientific evidence drinking rice water or “ricezempic” is effective for weight loss. You probably won’t see any significant changes in your weight by drinking ricezempic and making no other adjustments to your diet or lifestyle.

While the drink may provide a small amount of resistant starch residue from the rice, and some hydration from the water, consuming foods that contain resistant starch in their full form would offer significantly more nutritional benefits.

More broadly, be weary of the weight loss hacks you see on social media. Achieving lasting weight loss boils down to gradually adopting healthy eating habits and regular exercise, ensuring these changes become lifelong habits.

Emily Burch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Lauren Ball works for The University of Queensland and receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Queensland Health and Mater Misericordia. She is a Director of Dietitians Australia, a Director of the Darling Downs and West Moreton Primary Health Network and an Associate Member of the Australian Academy of Health and Medical Sciences.

– ref. Ricezempic: is there any evidence this TikTok trend will help you lose weight? – https://theconversation.com/ricezempic-is-there-any-evidence-this-tiktok-trend-will-help-you-lose-weight-234368

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Helen Dickinson, Professor, Public Service Research, UNSW Sydney

When the review of the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) was handed down at the end of last year, one of the more controversial recommendations was to make provider registration mandatory.

The review – and NDIS Minister Bill Shorten – argued these changes were needed to make NDIS participants safer. But many in the disability community were worried these changes could restrict their choice and control over services.

Shorten established an expert taskforce to provide advice on the design and implementation of a new registration model in consultation with the disability community. This advice has just been published.

At the same time, a short public consultation period has opened so people can have their say on what supports should be funded under the NDIS, following headlines about ballooning costs and what funds are being used for.

Together, these developments might achieve a balance between safety concerns and allowing NDIS participants to manage their services in a way that works for them.

What the NDIS review recommended

Currently, only some NDIS service providers are registered with the NDIS Quality and Safeguards Commission. To do so, they must undertake compliance and auditing processes, which can be time-consuming and expensive.

All NDIS participants can purchase supports from registered providers, but some (those who are self-managed or plan-managed, rather than NDIS-managed) can also buy services from providers who are unregistered. About 7% of service providers in the NDIS are registered, but only around two-fifths of NDIS payments go to unregistered providers. Unregistered providers tend to be smaller operators and there are more of them.

The NDIS review suggested a mandatory risk-proportionate model to improve visibility and regulation for all providers.

This means all NDIS providers would need to be registered or enrolled and participants would not be able to purchase goods or services from providers that are not. Some providers say they would not become registered because of the significant costs and administrative burdens involved.

This might not seem like a particularly controversial recommendation, but it has split the disability community.

Some see it as a way to prevent some of the horrific abuse some people with disability experience.

But others are concerned it would shrink their choice of provider, lead some to go without services and increase the cost of the scheme.

Read more:
Choice and control: what can the ACCC do to stop NDIS price gouging and reduce costs?

Who were on the taskforce and what did they do?

Chaired by disability rights lawyer and activist, Natalie Wade, the taskforce met with more than 2,200 people with disability, allies, service providers and others over three months. The taskforce disagreed with the NDIS review that all providers should be registered, but said a new risk-proportionate model is needed.

The taskforce outlines four categories of registration:

• advanced registration for providers offering high-risk supports often in high-risk settings (such as group homes)

• general registration for those offering medium-risk supports or those who require additional skill and training or involve significant one-to-one contact with disabled people (such as some complex bowel care or giving injections)

• self-directed registration for participants or their guardian or legal representative who get supports through direct employment or independent contractors

• basic registration for providers offering lower-risk supports such as social and community participation and supports with more limited one-to-one contact.

Each of these categories comes with different requirements in terms of worker screening, practice standards, complaints processes and performance measurement requirements.

A fifth category set out by the taskforce does not require registration. This is for goods bought from mainstream retailers (such as a noise-cancelling headphones from an online store or a ramp from a hardware store) where there is no direct support provided to the participant.

The taskforce also suggests changes to:

• worker registration
• the NDIS Code of Conduct
• how provider performance is measured
• how provider audits are conducted
• how the Quality and Safeguards Commission receives and handles complaints.

Some of these changes will take time as new systems and processes will need to be developed; others are more urgent.

This is particularly the case for people accessing supported independent living services, who need help at home all the time. Often, these are people with intellectual disability who have large NDIS budgets and are more likely to live in group settings. They are also more likely to experience violence, abuse, neglect and exploitation. The taskforce recommends all such providers be registered within 12 months.

There is still some detail to be worked out about these recommendations and more co-design needed to make sure the system works for everyone. But these suggestions seem to do a good job of balancing protections and choice and control.

The report acknowledges many of the complex issues relating to this topic and suggests a possible pathway.

Read more:
Choice and control: people with disability feel safer when they can select their NDIS providers

What about NDIS supports?

The taskforce report lands in the wake of the government’s underwhelming response to the disability royal commission.

Meanwhile, the progress of legislative NDIS reform to get the scheme “back on track” through the Senate has been delayed by amendments and disagreements.

There is ongoing tension with the states and territories over who will fund foundational support.

Proposed lists of what supports will be covered under the NDIS have also been controversial. The government has just opened public consultation so people with disability can help define what should be funded and what should not. But the timescales for consultation are very short, which might prevent all those who are interested from engaging on this topic.

What happens next?

The government now needs to decide how it wants to act on the provider and worker registration taskforce’s advice.

The taskforce report acknowledges further consultation with the disability community is needed. It will be important that the government listens more closely.

Helen Dickinson receives funding from ARC, NHMRC, CYDA. She was a member of the Academic and Policy Advisory Group that was consulted by the taskforce.

– ref. Tiered NDIS provider registration and a say on supports. Are we finally listening to people with disability? – https://theconversation.com/tiered-ndis-provider-registration-and-a-say-on-supports-are-we-finally-listening-to-people-with-disability-233657

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jane Simon, Senior Lecturer in Media, Macquarie University

In the work of Hiroshi Sugimoto, photography is a type of embalmment, a tactic of preservation, and an instrument of experimentation.

Born in 1948, Japanese artist Sugimoto works with photography, site-specific sculpture and architecture. Time Machine at the Museum of Contemporary Art surveys over five decades of his work. The exhibition highlights Sugimoto’s conceptual approach to images and his continual investigation of the photographic form.

Sugimoto’s photographs reveal his reverence for technique. They are primarily in black and white, and often made with an analogue large-format camera. These are images made with intent; carefully planned, and often slowly executed.

Sugimoto’s work engages with the history of photographic materials and processes. His Lightning Fields (2006–) prints are camera-less photographs, images made through the direct use of light or chemicals on light-sensitive paper or film.

These images gesture to William Henry Fox Talbot’s early experiments with static electricity: Sugimoto’s photographs are the outcome of electrical currents meeting unexposed film. The prints feature dramatic forms that look like splayed branches, sprawling veins or plant roots: fireworks on paper.

Grandness askew

At first glance, many of Sugimoto’s photographs direct attention to the legendary and the monumental: they picture Modernist architecture, portraits of royals and infamous leaders, and wild animals poised to hunt.

But they tilt instead towards less certain territory. Through Sugimoto’s use of bokeh, or blur, the Eiffel Tower in his Architecture series is out of focus.

The beautifully lit portrait of Princess Diana, hands behind her back and looking away from the camera, is of her wax likeness: a portrait made at Madame Tussauds two years after she died.

The proud polar bear about to dive on its prey is a photograph of the enclosed space of a diorama: the animal forever poised before the meal it will never have.

Sugimoto’s lens underscores eminence and beauty with uncertainty about the appearance of reality. His work raises questions about where existence begins, ends, or transforms.

The skin between life and death, monument and ruin, surfaces in many of Sugimoto’s photographs. Sugimoto’s “time machine” moves between time gone, spent time and a sense of being beyond time.

A tiny room in the centre of the exhibition – relieved from its usual role as a storage cupboard – contains the exhibition’s smallest prints. This tight space, with its industrial lighting and exposed air conditioning ducts, is a fitting stage for Sugimoto’s Chamber of Horrors (1994). This series features wax figures of infamous murders and their instruments of torture and death.

The claustrophobia in the images is replicated in the tiny space.

Small differences

Sugimoto’s on-going Seascape series with their uniform divide between sky and ocean, are quiet black-and-white images. There are no swimmers, seabirds or ships at sea here: simply water, sky and light from the moon or sun. Subtle differences in tone, wave patterns and light reveal themselves with sustained looking.

The vantage point from which Sugimoto photographs is never revealed, although each image is titled by geographic location. Ligurian Sea, Framura (1993) is one of the darkest and most nuanced in tone: a nocturnal seascape lit barely by moonlight.

A length of wall features Sea of Buddha (1995). Sea of Buddha is a series made in Sanjūsangen-dō (三十三間堂), a 12th-century Buddhist temple in Kyoto.

These black and white prints share the subtle play of differences in Sugimoto’s Seascapes. Sea of Buddha pictures the 1,001 wooden sculptures of Buddha gilded with gold, a collective of not-quite identical sculptures, small variations revealed through Sugimoto’s lens as light catches the shimmer of gold.

Light and decay

Sugimoto’s celebrated Theaters (1976–) images are made by using an exposure time equal to the screening time of a film. Sugimoto opens the camera shutter as the film begins and closes it only once the film has finished. The result is a luminous screen framed by the interior of a theatre: a single photograph of an entire film.

The detail of these interiors is lit only by the cumulative light from the projected film.

While some interiors in these photographs retain their original ornate décor, Sugimoto’s Abandoned Theatres (2015) document the spaces in varying states of decay.

These images of the theatres’ afterlife are displayed in frames, allowing the patina of ruin to spill beyond the enclosed photographs as the lead oxidises.

The weathering of the theatre interior in Opera House, Philadelphia (2015) is lit by the central luminous film screen. The ceiling is falling in, the side balconies gutted, and a section of the front stage stairs are askew. The decay itself is embalmed, preserved, and transformed by the projected film and Sugimoto’s camera.

This section of the gallery spaces also contains Sugimoto’s Drive-Ins series. In these photographs, the outdoor cinema screens, through Sugimoto’s long exposure, light up exterior spaces.

In Tri City Drive In (1993) the projected film lights the empty playground in front of the screen. A set of swings and slides sit unused. The sky behind the screen contains lines of light: the result of stars and planes moving across the sky during the film’s duration.

The sky is yet another screen for the play of light to be transformed by the machine of time, Sugimoto reminds us.

Hiroshi Sugimoto: Time Machine is at the Museum of Contemporary Art, Sydney, until October 27.

Jane Simon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The photography of Japanese artist Hiroshi Sugimoto captures uncertainty, ruin and empty splendour – https://theconversation.com/the-photography-of-japanese-artist-hiroshi-sugimoto-captures-uncertainty-ruin-and-empty-splendour-235666

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Justin Hastings, Professor of International Relations and Comparative Politics, University of Sydney

It may not have attracted much attention in recent months with global attention focused elsewhere. But the international sanctions monitoring regime on North Korea has been disbanded, raising concerns about the unimpeded flow of North Korean weapons to global hotspots from Ukraine to Gaza.

Enforcement of United Nations sanctions against North Korea has actually been eroding for years. The final coup de grace came in March when Russia vetoed the renewal of a committee known as the Panel of Experts, which was tasked with monitoring and reporting on North Korean sanctions violations.

While UN sanctions are technically still in force, and the United States, European Union, Australia, Japan and other countries still abide by them, Russia and China do not.

With no enforcement oversight in place anymore, North Korea will now be able to ship its weapons and other black-market goods to its allies – most notably Russia, China, Iran and Syria – with less worry of repercussions.

Elaborate efforts to dodge sanctions

Since 2006, the UN has passed a number of resolutions imposing sanctions against North Korea for its nuclear program. In recent years, though, North Korea has tried to find inventive new ways to get around them.

For example, North Korea has bought a number of ships that it uses to disguise its trading activities through front companies. It operates the ships under “flags of convenience”, which arouse less suspicion in international waters, before eventually taking direct ownership of them under North Korean flags.

The Panel of Experts reported in 2023 that the time between the acquisition of the ships and the reflagging of them as North Korean has been decreasing. This means the government is expending less effort to conceal the fact the ships were purchased to conduct illicit trade.

To further facilitate its illicit trade, North Korea also continues to use Automated Identification System (AIS) spoofing for its ships. This allows its ships to transmit a false identity and/or location to law enforcement, port and trade authorities, and other ships.

The government also creates fake ship registrations to “launder”, or conceal, the true identities of its ships to evade sanctions.

In addition, North Korea’s ships are physically altered in shipyards, often in China, where they remain for months at a time.

For example, North Korean recently altered two ships (the Tomi Haru and Toyo Haru) in Chinese shipyards to conduct trade without arousing suspicion, seemingly with the help of non-North Korean firms.

The ships were owned and managed by several front companies that had Chinese nationals as their directors and were incorporated in Hong Kong and the Seychelles. After being used for suspicious trade for some time, they were later officially “acquired” by the North Korean government in early 2022.

Trading out in the open

North Korea also feels increasingly comfortable engaging with a set of countries (notably Russia and China) that will most likely not enforce sanctions.

For example, it is no longer engaging in convoluted maritime trade routes to disguise its transactions. According to Panel of Experts reports, a number of North Korea-linked ships are simply plying a direct route between North Korea and China, without any additional stops.

Brokers operating on North Korea’s behalf (particularly those in China) often trade goods for the regime without any issues.

And many of North Korea’s transactions, particularly those involving oil, are happening as ship-to-ship transfers in waters around Northeast Asia. This alleviates the need for North Korean-linked ships to use foreign ports, which is denied by UN sanctions.

While most transfers are in North Korean territorial waters, the UN Panel of Experts has reported clusters of transfers well within China’s exclusive economic zone off its eastern coast. This, again, suggests the North Koreans are unconcerned about detection.

North Korean weapons in Ukraine, Africa and the Middle East

North Korea has used this slackening of sanctions enforcement to ramp up its weapons exports and consolidate its alliances, particularly with Russia.

After North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s visit to Russia in September 2023, the country illegally transported some 6,700 containers (loaded with three million artillery shells) to Russia by sea and rail by February 2024, according to South Korean intelligence. It also boosted its factory output to provide new supplies to Russia.

Russia has since used a number of North Korean short-range ballistic missiles in its attacks on Ukraine. The missile components indicate they arrived via an extensive importation program facilitated by North Korea.

In early 2024, the non-governmental organisation Conflict Armament Research examined the remnants of a North Korean missile in Kharkiv, Ukraine, and discovered 290 components that reportedly came from 26 companies in eight countries. Three-quarters of those components came from the United States. The components had likely been sold to companies in third countries acting on behalf of North Korean buyers, and then re-exported to North Korea.

Now, the end of much enforcement of North Korean exports will enable it to further expand its buyer network.

For example, a 2024 Panel of Experts report noted meetings between representatives of KOMID (North Korea’s main weapons seller) and a Myanmar company in 2022. Meetings were also held between a North Korean diplomat in Guinea and members of the junta in neighbouring Mali to discuss building an ammunition factory in that country in 2023.

Worryingly, North Korea may also now seek to bolster its military (and potentially nuclear) relationships with Iran and Syria.

North Korean weapons were reportedly used by Hamas in its operations against Israel from October 2023 onward. These were possibly transported from Iran’s stocks.

While North Korea has long had ties with Iran, any increased access to China and Russia as stopover points for personnel and goods would enhance the country’s ability to share its military technology and know-how with Tehran.

However, the fact that Russia and China are increasingly running interference for North Korea does not necessarily mean the three countries are forming an alliance. Indeed, China is sensitive to such claims.

During the Cold War, North Korea traditionally played the Soviet Union and China off one another, taking advantage of their rivalry to extract benefits from both without being forced fully into the camp of either.

With that said, where Russian and Chinese interests are aligned vis-à-vis North Korea, there is the potential for cooperation. All three countries have a strategic interest in minimising American influence in East Asia (and globally). In this, North Korea has been able to make common cause with its friends.

Ending sanctions reporting and oversight will now allow these relationships to flourish, and for North Korea to develop its weapons export industry with less interference.

Justin Hastings has received relevant external funding from the Australian Research Council and the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime.

– ref. With UN oversight of sanctions against North Korea now scrapped, its weapons are going global – https://theconversation.com/with-un-oversight-of-sanctions-against-north-korea-now-scrapped-its-weapons-are-going-global-232716

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Holly Thorpe, Professor in Sociology of Sport and Gender, University of Waikato

In a preliminary women’s under 66kg boxing match at the Paris Olympics last week between Algerian Imane Khelif and Italian Angela Carini, a powerful punch to the face resulted in Carini withdrawing after 46 seconds.

Carini dissolved into tears, crying “this is unfair”, and “I have never been hit so hard in my life”.

Almost immediately, journalists and commentators jumped to Carini’s defence, raising questions about International Olympic Committee (IOC) policies and making many false assertions about Khelif’s gender identity.

The backstory

In the face of harmful inaccuracies and widespread online hate speech it is important to outline some of the basics.

Khelif has identified as female since birth and lived her entire life as a woman, including throughout her sporting career.

She is not transgender. She did not go through puberty as a male and then transition later.

Her passport marks her identity as female, thus meeting the IOC criteria for gender classification of boxers.

In her first international boxing competition in 2018, she lost five of six elite level bouts. She went to the Tokyo Olympics in 2021 as one of Algeria’s first Olympic boxers and while she won her opening bout, she lost her second.

Khelif has had some previous international success but she has been beaten by nine women boxers prior to the Paris games.

Boxing’s questionable approach to gender testing

In 2023, a boxing competition held in Russia and run by the International Boxing Association (IBA) questioned the gender identity of Khelif and Taiwan’s Lin Yu-Ting (who is also competing at the Paris Olympics).

The IBA president, Umar Kremlev of Russia, was quoted as saying the two athletes had XY chromosomes and thus were subsequently disqualified.

Elsewhere, it was stated the athletes presented with “elevated” levels of testosterone.

The facts are yet to be confirmed and it is not the role of an international sports organisation to be handing out personal and private information.

Upon request from the athletes, the IBA refused to provide evidence of the tests undertaken.

The IBA minutes (available on its website) state the decision to disqualify Khelif and Lin was initially taken solely by the IBA secretary general and CEO.

The IBA board only ratified it afterwards, with the minutes stating the organisation needs to “establish a clear procedure on gender testing”.

As the records suggest, the IBA did not follow ethical practice regarding the disqualification of Khelif and Yu-Ting. In fact, the very use of such tests to identify an athlete’s sex and/or gender are highly problematic.

Sex testing in question

Since 1968, some sportswomen competing in the Olympics have had to undergo humiliating tests “proving” their gender identities. This often involved visual examinations of their genitals in front of doctors and other medical experts.

Mandated by the IOC, “gender verification” tests were then implemented by international sports organisations.

Underpinning such practices was a set of problematic assumptions, particularly that a woman who is good at sport could perhaps be a man masquerading as female.

Beyond visual examinations, blood tests documenting hormone levels and/or chromosome testing were used. But as research has revealed, the effects of testosterone on performance are often overstated, and understandings of sporting performance and gender require much more nuanced approaches.

After many years of critique, the IOC halted such practices in 1999.

In place of outdated sex tests that fail to recognise the physiological and socio-psychological complexities of gender identity, the IOC introduced a new set of guidelines prioritising the basic human rights of privacy, inclusion and participation.

While the IOC sets out the framework in the hope of guiding other international organisations towards more inclusive understandings of gender, the guidelines remain contested.

Some organisations opted to take alternative approaches to testing and proving an athlete’s “true” gender identity – for example, World Athletics continue to use testosterone testing.

Read more:
A win for transgender athletes and athletes with sex variations: the Olympics shifts away from testosterone tests and toward human rights

Boxing and the IOC: a clash of ethics

The boxing events at the Paris Olympics are not being organised by the IBA, but instead by a special IOC-appointed unit.

The IBA was suspended in 2019 by the IOC, and last year stripped of its status as the world governing body of amateur boxing due to concerns regarding its governance, financial transparency and integrity of its officials.

The IOC was also concerned the IBA refused to follow their approach in issuing sanctions on Russian athletes over the Ukraine war.

With the Russian leadership of the IBA, this position highlights another layer of geopolitical complexity in this case.

Responding to the media frenzy after the Khelif-Carini bout, the Paris 2024 boxing unit stated: “all athletes participating in the boxing tournament comply with the competition’s eligibility and entry regulations, as well as all applicable medical regulations set by the Paris 2024 Boxing Unit (PBU)”.

The IBA has responded by offering Carini and her coach a payment similar to the purse awarded to the Olympic champion (US$100,000).

Since the incident, Carini has apologised to Khelif for her reaction and the resulting abuse, stating she would “embrace her” the next time they meet.

The real issues for women in sport

In the contemporary context, many sportswomen who appear too powerful, too successful, or look “too masculine” according to a particular set of values are at risk of being targeted. Importantly, it is most often non-white athletes who face the most scrutiny of their gendered sporting bodies.

Beyond the ethics of the tests being used, the extreme levels of online abuse directed to sportswomen such as Khelif and Lin reveal new ways in which women’s bodies are being policed and regulated.

To avoid such accusations, many sportswomen are engaging in what scholars have termed “emphasised femininity” – wearing long lashes, jewellery, make-up, painted nails and overtly feminine clothing. This is not because it enhances their performance but to reassure audiences (and critics) of their femininity.

If they do not offer a convincing performance that meets limited versions of femininity, they may also face surveillance of their gendered bodies, and public attack and online abuse.

However, this recent controversy may be a distraction from the real issues affecting women’s sport, such as safeguarding against systematic abuse, which has been seen in recent high-profile cases involving Volleyball Australia and USA Gymnastics.

While the Paris Olympic and Paralympics may be celebrated as the first “gender equitable” games, with 50% female participation, the abuse faced by Khelif and Yu-Ting highlight the challenges many women still face in sport.

Holly Thorpe has previously received funding from an IOC research programme grant to study youth perceptions of the Olympic Games.

Ryan Storr consults to Proud2Play. He has received funding from VicHealth and the Australian Sport Commission. He is affiliated with Proud2Play..

– ref. Misinformation, abuse and injustice: breaking down the Olympic boxing firestorm – https://theconversation.com/misinformation-abuse-and-injustice-breaking-down-the-olympic-boxing-firestorm-236061

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. Election analyst Nate Silver’s national poll aggregate has Democratic nominee and current vice president Kamala Harris leading Republican nominee and former president Donald Trump by 45.5–44.1%, with 5.0% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

When President Joe Biden withdrew from the contest on July 21, Trump had a 45.2–41.2% lead over Biden, so Harris has improved on Biden’s net margin by 5.4 points. By the election, Biden will be almost 82, Trump is now 78 and Harris will be 60.

Silver’s model gave Trump a 73% chance to win the election when Biden was his opponent. When the Harris vs Trump model was launched last Tuesday, Trump had a 62% chance to win. The model now gives Harris very slight favouritism, with a 50.5% chance to win.

The US president isn’t elected by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives electoral votes based mostly on population. Almost all states award their electoral votes winner takes all, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).

Silver’s model gives Harris a 66% chance to win the popular vote, compared to a 50.5% chance in the Electoral College. The model indicates Harris needs to win the popular vote by at least two points to be the favourite to win the Electoral College.

It’s still very close to a 50–50 chance for either Harris or Trump, but Harris has greatly improved on the situation under Biden. Switching from Biden to Harris was clearly the correct decision for Democrats.

In economic data, the unemployment rate rose 0.2% to 4.3% in July, the highest it has been since October 2021, when the US was recovering from the COVID recession. A weaker economy is likely to assist Trump.

Australian politics: the inflation report

The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the June quarter inflation report on July 31.

Inflation increased 1%, the same as in the March quarter, for a 12-month rate of 3.8%. However, the trimmed mean and weighted median measures of core inflation were both lower than headline inflation at 0.8% in the June quarter.

The ABC reported economists thought an interest rate rise was unlikely after this inflation report, and the next interest rate move is much more likely to be down, though not until early 2025.

The cost of living has been by far voters’ biggest concern, so this report is modest good news for Labor. The polls below include a bad Redbridge poll for Labor that was conducted in mid-July.

Essential poll: Labor gains to be just ahead

A national Essential poll, conducted July 24–28 from a sample of 1,137, gave Labor a 47–46% lead including undecided, a reversal of a 48–46% Coalition lead in mid-July.

Primary votes were 34% Coalition (up one), 32% Labor (up three), 11% Greens (down two), 7% One Nation (down one), 2% UAP (down one), 9% for all Others (steady) and 6% undecided (steady).

This is the second Labor lead in Essential’s fortnightly polls since April. Labor’s poor position in this poll has been partly due to weak respondent allocated preference flows.

Anthony Albanese had a -3 net approval, up six points since early July, with 46% disapproving and 43% approving. Peter Dutton’s net approval improved two points to +1.

By 56–36%, Australians had an unfavourable opinion of Trump, a large improvement for Trump from 72–20% unfavourable after the 2020 US election. By 48–25%, they had a favourable opinion of Harris. By 37–23%, voters thought Australia’s relationship with the US would become worse if Trump is elected president.

On union membership, 11% said they were currently union members, 28% were not currently members but had been previously and 58% had never been a member. By 64–26%, voters thought unions important (60–24% in 2020). By 51–26%, they thought workers would be better off with stronger unions (50–24% in 2020).

Labor’s relationship with unions was thought too close by 33%, about right by 33% and not close enough by 10%.

Morgan poll: 50.5–49.5% to Labor

A national Morgan poll, conducted July 15–21 from a sample of 1,752, gave the Coalition a 51–49% lead, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since the July 8–14 poll.

In the Morgan poll conducted July 22–28 from a sample of 1,652, Labor led by 50.5–49.5%.

Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (down two since July 15–21), 30.5% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (steady), 6.5% One Nation (up 1.5), 8.5% independents (up one) and 4% others (up 0.5).

Using preferences allocated by 2022 election flows, Labor led by 51–49%, a 0.5-point gain for Labor.

Redbridge poll: big swing to Coalition gives them lead

A national Redbridge poll, conducted July 10–19 from a sample of 1,505, gave the Coalition a 51.5–48.5% lead, a 3.5-point gain for the Coalition since a Redbridge April poll.

Primary votes were 41% Coalition (up four), 32% Labor (down one), 11% Greens (down one) and 16% for all Others (down two).

By 48–27%, voters did not think the Albanese government was focused on the right priorities (50–34% in April). By 40–34%, they did not think the Coalition led by Dutton is ready for government (45–36% previously).

By 38–37%, voters opposed the development of nuclear power plants, but by 33–29% they thought the Coalition had a better plan than Labor for future energy reliability and affordability.

YouGov poll: 51–49% to Labor

A national YouGov poll, conducted July 12–17 from a sample of 1,528, gave Labor a 51–49% lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous YouGov poll in early June.

Primary votes were 38% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (up one), 13% Greens (down one), 7% One Nation (down one) and 11% for all Others (up one).

Albanese’s net approval improved two points to -10, with 52% satisfied and 42% dissatisfied. Dutton’s net approval surged nine points to -4. Albanese led as preferred PM by 45–37% (47–36% in June).

When asked whether they could name something the government had done to make them personally financially better off, 73% said “no” and 27% “yes”, with tax cuts the most popular at 10%. Asked the same question in a poll before the May budget, 82% had responded “no”.

In additional questions from the previous YouGov poll, 31% had a leaning towards more capitalism, 27% towards more socialism and 42% were neutral. By 50–27%, voters thought the government should support low-cost airlines.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Kamala Harris edges ahead of Donald Trump in national polls for US election – https://theconversation.com/kamala-harris-edges-ahead-of-donald-trump-in-national-polls-for-us-election-235187

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Irma Mooi-Reci, Professor in Labour Sociology, The University of Melbourne

Across developed countries, including Australia, fewer babies are being born.

In 2023, 289,100 babies were born in Australia, a big drop from the 2021 post-lockdown spike during which there was 315,200 births, an analysis by KPMG has found.

Among the different explanations for this trend, employment insecurity looms large.

A major concern is many young people are in casual jobs or on part-time contracts.

These so-called non-standard employment arrangements, and especially casual work, are strongly tied with job insecurity, unpredictable working hours and fluctuating pay, making it difficult for people to commit to starting a family.

In Australia, more than 40% of all employment over the past two decades (2001-2022) has been engaged in non-standard work. The Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey found about 19% of workers did casual hours over the past two decades.

What we know about casual workers and their desire to have children?

Internationally, and in Australia studies show a strong correlation between casual work and lower fertility.

However, it is unclear if temporary or casual work leads to fewer children, or if people who want fewer children are more likely to choose temporary or casual jobs.

This is what we wanted to find out in our study based on an analysis of 19 years of data from the HILDA Survey. We make two key observations:

• working in temporary and casual jobs was linked with a lower desire to have children, particularly among men. This was nearly twice as strong for men in temporary jobs than those in casual roles

• there was great variation in the desire to have children across different groups.

For example, well-educated and high-income men in temporary jobs were the least likely to plan on starting a family.

Conversely, casual work had a more significant negative impact on the desire to have children among men with limited education, low income, and low-status positions.

These findings suggest having a job with no guarantee of continuity reduces people’s plans to have a baby.

So, why do workers with irregular pay have fewer babies?

Lower earnings are part of the answer. In a study published earlier this year, we showed women in casual jobs earn lower wages often because they are working fewer hours than they would actually prefer.

Indeed, underemployment is common among Australian women in casual jobs and is coupled with lower pay.

And as women look for jobs with longer hours and better pay or take on second jobs, their plans to start a family and have children are not just delayed but often abandoned.

Another part of the answer is job insecurity. Women in casual and temporary jobs often feel less secure and worry about losing their jobs, making them less inclined to have children.

Moving in and out of employment often comes with a big drop in income. This is because Australia’s unemployment payments cover only a small percentage of a worker’s previous wages and are ranked amongst the lowest in OECD countries.

In fact, in Australia, income drops during unemployment can be so high that they can push families into poverty.

This situation makes it hard, especially for those with insecure work – to cover basic needs and create a safe, healthy environment, let alone raise children.

How can we boost the birth rate?

While cutting down on temporary and casual jobs in Australia may sound like a solution, it won’t solve the problem of fewer births. In fact, it could hurt the economy by making it harder for employers to create new jobs.

Instead, the fertility problem could be fixed by:

Creating more secure full-time jobs. We found casual workers earn less because they often work fewer hours and are underemployed. This limits opportunities to start a family. Creating more full-time, secure jobs with career growth opportunities is crucial.

Reducing the real costs of job loss. Australia’s unemployment support system offers minimal financial support and few incentives to find work. An insurance-based benefit system could fix this, reducing the actual costs of unemployment and worries about future job loss.

In most OECD countries, insurance-based unemployment benefits are funded by contributions from employers and employees, similar to Australia’s superannuation system.

When people lose their jobs, these benefits replace a portion of their lost wages for a limited time. An unemployment insurance system offers three key advantages over Australia’s current unemployment payments:

1. it provides more generous and personalised payments than the current JobSeeker payments

2. it encourages workforce participation by giving all workers, including those in part-time, temporary or casual jobs, the opportunity to save and transfer unused benefits for future periods of unemployment

3. it improves job matching and reduces underemployment by giving people the financial means to find jobs matching their skills and preferred hours without immediate financial pressure.

The Albanese government’s Economic Inclusion Advisory Committee has already recommended boosting current unemployment payments.

However, more significant reforms are needed to future-proof the unemployment benefit system. Creating more secure full-time jobs and lowering the costs of job loss would help increase the birth rate.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. More secure jobs and higher unemployment benefits would help lift Australia’s birth rate – https://theconversation.com/more-secure-jobs-and-higher-unemployment-benefits-would-help-lift-australias-birth-rate-230538

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Anderson, Associate Professor, National Centre for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Wellbeing Research, Australian National University

Australian children are among the healthiest in the world. However, First Nations children continue to be left behind. To break the cycle of disadvantage, we need to foster First Nations children’s wellbeing so they can enjoy strong, happy childhoods.

Research can help us achieve this, but there’s a critical challenge – how do we include the voices of First Nations children in the research that aims to support them? We must do this safely and effectively.

One of the biggest hurdles is that participating in research can be boring, if not downright scary, for many children.

We’ve come up with a unique approach to overcome this challenge – a culturally informed app that makes research for First Nations children fun and familiar.

Culturally relevant wellbeing measures are essential

Assessing and supporting the wellbeing of anybody must be done in a culturally relevant way. But when it comes to First Nations children, there has historically been a lack of wellbeing measures which take into account their unique cultural, spiritual, family and community needs. This has been a major barrier to achieving real change in advancing the wellbeing of First Nations children.

Our national project, What Matters 2 Kids, is filling this gap. It combines art, storytelling and technology to develop a nationally relevant, strengths-based wellbeing measure for First Nations children aged five to 11 years. This measure can then inform clinical and policy decision-making.

The project’s First Nations facilitators are engaging children around the country in art and yarning workshops to understand what is important for their wellbeing.

While these workshops use plenty of pencils, crayons, paint and paper, our project team saw the need to give children other options in how they engage with the study and share their views.

A new app

To achieve this, the project team turned to technology first developed by David Ireland from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) to help children living with chronic pain communicate their pain to their therapists and how it affects their daily life.

In collaboration, we developed a culturally grounded app that engages First Nations children in research about their own health and wellbeing in a fun and familiar way.

This app was designed to follow the format of the face-to-face art and yarning workshops. It invites the child to draw on a tablet and prompts them to describe what they have drawn and why it’s important to them.

To make the app more welcoming, the research team used a real human voice instead of an artificially generated one. A talented young First Nations girl, Stevie Fagan, recorded the voiceover to make sure that the voice sounded friendly for the children using the app.

The icons in the app are designed with culturally grounded imagery created by Craig Carson, a proud Wakka Wakka man, artist and Senior Community Engagement Officer at the University of Queensland.

Combined, these features ensure the app is as inclusive and culturally respectful as possible. It gives children who might feel shy or uncomfortable sharing their stories face-to-face an opportunity to open up about what is important to their wellbeing on their own terms, and with space and privacy.

In short, it gives children control over the research we are doing.

The project team are now using the app at a variety of sites around Australia to collect data with children. The team is aiming to have a draft wellbeing measure ready for testing by the end of next year, and the project will run until December 2027.

Lessons for other researchers

By weaving together First Nations culture with new technologies, the What Matters 2 Kids project is leading the way in developing and testing new ways of including the voices of First Nations people in research.

The new app has broad implications for research, policy and program development, as it demonstrates that the inclusion of First Nations children’s voices in projects about them is not “too hard”.

Instead, it can engage and empower the next generation of First Nations leaders.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What matters to First Nations children in Australia? A new app is helping us find out – https://theconversation.com/what-matters-to-first-nations-children-in-australia-a-new-app-is-helping-us-find-out-235593

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ava Kalinauskas, Research Associate, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney

Now that US Vice President Kamala Harris has sewn up the Democratic presidential nomination, she has a busy few weeks ahead of her. After she announces her vice-presidential running mate, the pair will campaign in seven swing states in four days. Then comes the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, starting on August 19.

With her campaign revving up, many are starting to wonder what a possible Harris presidency could mean for the world if she beats Republican Donald Trump in November. And how might it differ from President Joe Biden’s time in office?

Rejecting isolationism

Biden is one of the most experienced foreign policy hands to have served as president. He spent 36 years in the Senate, including 30 years on the influential Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He then had two terms leading critical foreign policy initiatives as Barack Obama’s vice president.

As president, Biden has deepened and broadened America’s engagement with its allies and partners around the world. This has included reaffirming US support for NATO and Ukraine, forging the AUKUS pact with the United Kingdom and Australia, and elevating the Quad diplomatic grouping between the US, Australia, India and Japan to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

The Biden administration also launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, an economic partnership involving the US and 13 countries in Asia and the Pacific. It seeks to re-engage the US economically in the region following Trump’s 2017 withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Harris, on the other hand, entered the White House with little foreign policy experience of her own. As vice president, she has learned on the job, particularly through her travels to more than 20 countries and meetings with over 150 world leaders.

Harris’ foreign policy outlook appears to align with Biden’s internationalist approach, albeit with a more progressive inclination in some areas.

She views US-led post-war global institutions and norms as the country’s greatest foreign policy achievement, and has cautioned against calls for the US to pull back from its commitments on the global stage.

For example, in her time as vice president, Harris has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky half-a-dozen times. She has stepped in for Biden at three annual Munich Security Conferences — one of the most important international security summits.

At this year’s conference, she pledged the US would support Ukraine for “as long as it takes”.

According to reports, Harris also helped negotiate the landmark US-Russia prisoner-swap deal during a closed-door meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at this year’s Munich Security Conference.

And more recently, Harris pushed back on Trump’s claim that he would pull the US out of NATO, describing it as “the greatest military alliance the world has ever known”.

A firm commitment to US allies in Asia

Not surprisingly, Harris shares many of the same priorities as Biden, including his strong commitment to US allies in Asia.

As Biden’s second-in-command, however, Harris has carved out her own niche in foreign affairs. For instance, she has devoted time to America’s oft-neglected relationships in South-East Asia. She has stepped in for Biden at many regional summits including the East Asia and US-ASEAN summits in 2023.

Harris also stepped in for Biden at the 2022 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, meeting briefly with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Perhaps more importantly, on that same trip, she made a very visible show of the United States’ commitment to the Philippines amid its heightened tensions with China.

Stopping on the island of Palawan, Harris said the US would stand by its ally to uphold “the rules-based international maritime order in the South China Sea”. It was a critical declaration given the two countries have a pact to come to each other’s defence if they are attacked.

On Taiwan, Biden has been explicit multiple times in his presidency about the US coming to the island’s defence if it was invaded by China. He has taken a much stronger stance than previous presidents, though his aides have repeatedly tried to walk back his comments.

Harris has stuck more to the script. She has, for instance, stressed the US “will continue to support Taiwan’s self-defence, consistent with our long-standing policy”. She is unlikely to be prone to Biden’s gaffes on Taiwan as president.

Differences with Biden

Harris would likely differ from Biden in other ways, too.

For example, Harris has been described as having a more “empathetic” approach to Israel’s war in Gaza.

Harris was one of the administration’s first high-profile voices to call for an immediate temporary ceasefire in March. She has described the civilian death toll in Gaza as a “humanitarian catastrophe”.

She has also reportedly privately urged Biden to take a stronger stance against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

As president, Harris may demonstrate a greater willingness than her predecssor to publicly criticise Netanyahu. Biden has described himself as a Zionist and defended Israel more stridently than progressive Democrats would have liked.

After meeting Netanyahu in Washington in late July, for instance, Harris said:

We cannot allow ourselves to be numb to the suffering and I will not be silent.

Trade remains another area where Harris may differ from Biden. She has expressed scepticism about free trade dating back to her Senate run in 2016. During that race, she opposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership — then a landmark accomplishment of the Obama-Biden administration.

Harris denied she was a “protectionist Democrat” during her 2020 presidential campaign. However, she said she would not have voted for NAFTA and felt the TPP failed to adequately protect American workers or environmental standards.

A Harris administration may not be as divided on trade issues as the Biden administration has been. The future of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework has been in doubt, for instance, due to Democratic concerns it would hurt American workers — echoing Harris’ criticisms of other trade agreements.

Though Harris started with a thin foreign policy CV, in her three years as Biden’s loyal deputy she has quickly gained on-the-ground experience. But stepping into the role of US chief executive would be an opportunity for her to stamp her own mark on foreign policy and America’s standing on the global stage.

Nevertheless, if Harris wins in November, the world can expect to see more continuity than change.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What a Kamala Harris presidency could mean for the world – and where she differs from Joe Biden – https://theconversation.com/what-a-kamala-harris-presidency-could-mean-for-the-world-and-where-she-differs-from-joe-biden-235651

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Phoebe Williams, Paediatrician & Infectious Diseases Physician; Senior Lecturer & NHMRC Fellow, Faculty of Medicine, University of Sydney

So far in 2024 there have been more than 17,000 cases of whooping cough (pertussis) across Australia. This is well above our usual national average. It’s already six times more cases than we saw in all of 2023.

News headlines in multiple states have warned of whooping cough outbreaks over recent weeks and months. Most recently, Western Australia has reported a surge, highest in the state’s south-west.

Young infants are at the greatest risk of severe disease and death as whooping cough numbers continue to climb.

So why has it been such a big year for whooping cough? And how can we prevent this dangerous disease spreading further?

First, what is whooping cough?

Whooping cough is an infection that affects the lungs and airways. It’s caused by the bacterium Bordetella pertussis. Like other respiratory infections, it passes easily from person to person via coughing, sneezing or talking.

Adults and children can get sick with whooping cough and suffer prolonged periods of coughing that may last weeks or months. In infants, the cough is characterised by a “whoop” sound when they breathe in, and they may vomit after coughing. In some cases, there may be no cough at all, and babies under one year can experience pauses in their breathing or turn blue.

Babies younger than six months are particularly vulnerable to whooping cough as they’re not yet fully immunised. Infants under four months have the highest rate of hospitalisation. Around one in 100 hospitalised children under one may die from the infection.

Why are cases surging this year?

Along with other infectious diseases, including viral infections such as influenza and bacterial infections such as group A streptococcal infection, whooping cough all but disappeared at the height of the COVID pandemic.

After social distancing measures were eased, we’ve seen a higher-than-usual burden of circulating respiratory infections. This is particularly true for children, who had less exposure to common bugs during the lockdown period than they would normally have.

Whooping cough usually surges every three to four years, but social distancing, border controls, lockdowns and mask wearing during the pandemic meant our last peak occurred in 2016. Therefore many people now have less immunity to whooping cough than normal.

Further, whooping cough is highly infectious and immunity – from either immunisation or natural infection – wanes over time. This leaves people vulnerable to repeat infections.

What about the vaccine?

Immunisation is the best way to protect both yourself and vulnerable babies from whooping cough infections.

In Australia, children receive six pertussis vaccinations at the ages of six weeks, four months and six months (the primary course). “Booster” doses are given at 18 months, age four and year 7.

Maternal vaccination is the best way to protect very young infants. Whooping cough booster doses are recommended for pregnant women, from 20 weeks of pregnancy, in every pregnancy.

This allows the transfer of protective antibodies to the baby, reducing the chances of catching whooping cough during their first few months of life – particularly before receiving their first vaccination at six weeks.

Booster doses are also recommended for health-care workers and adults who come into close contact with infants, or care for young babies.

How effective is the vaccine?

The vaccines recommended currently are good at providing protection against severe whooping cough (around 85% efficacy). They are less able to protect against milder infections in children. This means they don’t have much impact on reducing the transmission of whooping cough, which tends to occur when people with milder infections are well enough to be out and about in the community.

Whooping cough vaccines available in Australia are “acellular” vaccines. These are made using purified proteins, rather than “whole cell” inactivated vaccines (based on a whole inactivated version of Bordetella pertussis).

Whole cell vaccines were used previously and provoked a better immune response, but were also associated with more side effects, such as fever or reactions at the injection site. The acellular vaccines cause fewer side effects and are very safe, but may result in a slightly lower immune response, which also wanes over time.

To address this, research is under way to reconsider the role of the whole cell vaccine. Other research is testing novel vaccine delivery methods, such as a nasal spray, which may be able to better reduce community transmission of whooping cough.

How can we stop the surge?

The COVID pandemic resulted in drops in routine vaccination coverage. This was due to a combination of practical access issues – for example, people were concerned about catching COVID when visiting their GP – and lower vaccine acceptance. The latter resulted from a rise in vaccine misinformation on social media, mistrust in government, and increased scrutiny of vaccine safety, among other factors.

Across Australia, up-to-date pertussis vaccination coverage in young children declined from 94.2% in 2021 to 93.6% in 2022. This drop represents thousands of children and sends us further below our 95% coverage target.

Coverage was even lower in adolescents in 2022 (86.9%), with many children missing their year 7 booster doses.

We haven’t previously had good national data on maternal vaccination, because historically the Australian Immunisation Register didn’t record pregnancy status. But research has shown coverage is variable in expectant mothers (between 49% and 89%). Rates are particularly low among Indigenous women, culturally and linguistically diverse women and those of lower socioeconomic status.

Recent updates to the Australian Immunisation Register, allowing documentation of pregnancy, will improve our understanding of vaccine coverage in this group.

It’s essential pregnant women and parents ensure they and their children are up to date with routine vaccinations. This will help protect everyone against vaccine-preventable illnesses, including young infants who are most vulnerable to getting very sick from whooping cough and other infections.

Candice Holland from Queensland Health contributed to this article.

Phoebe Williams receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council. She is affiliated with the Australian Society for Infectious Diseases Advocacy and Policy Committee and the Sydney Institute for Infectious Diseases.

Archana Koirala has been involved in research activities which receive funding from the Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care, NSW Ministry of Health and the Snow Foundation. She is affiliated with the Australian Society for Infectious Diseases: chair of the Vaccination Special Interest Group and a member of the Australian and New Zealand Paediatric Infectious Diseases Group.

Katie Flanagan has received funding from NHMRC, Clifford Craig Foundation and the Medical Research Council (UK) for studies of pertussis vaccination. She is immediate Past-President of the Australasian Society for Infectious Diseases (ASID), Co-Chair of the ASID Advocacy and Policy Committee, and a member of the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI). These are her personal views.

Prof Margie Danchin receives funding from the Victorian and Commonwealth governments, MRFF, NHMRC and DFAT. She is a member of the Australasian Society for Infectious Diseases (ASID) Advocacy and Policy Committee and Vaccination Special Interest Group (VACSIG) the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI). These are her personal views.

– ref. Whooping cough can be deadly for young babies. Vaccination is our best defence – https://theconversation.com/whooping-cough-can-be-deadly-for-young-babies-vaccination-is-our-best-defence-235527

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Ward, Lecturer, School of Environment and Science, Griffith University

Since European colonisation, 29 million hectares (54%) of the forests and woodlands that once existed in New South Wales have been destroyed. A further 9 million ha have been degraded in the past two centuries. This amounts to more than 60% of the state’s forest estate.

We will never know the full impacts this rampant clearing and degradation have had on the state’s wildlife and plants. But it is now possible to put into perspective the impacts of logging practices in the past two decades on species that have already suffered enormous loss.

Cutting down native vegetation for timber destroys habitat for forest-dependent species. Our research, published today, has found ongoing logging in NSW affects the habitat of at least 150 species considered at risk of extinction, due mostly to historical deforestation and degradation.

Thirteen of these species are listed as critically endangered. This means there is a 20% probability of extinction in ten years (or five generations, whichever is longer) without urgent conservation action.

The bare and highly disturbed areas created by logging also increase risks of erosion, fire and invasion by non-native species.

Other states and countries ban native forest logging

Despite these impacts, Australia still logs native forests.

Many countries have now banned native forest logging. They have recognised the enormous impact of intact forests on biodiversity and climate change, and rely entirely on plantations for wood production. New Zealand, for example, banned native forest logging two decades ago, in 2002.

In Australia, South Australia has protected native forests since the 1870s. The ACT banned logging in the 1980s. As of 2024, Western Australia and Victoria have ended their native forest logging operations (except logging for fire breaks, salvage logging after windstorms, and logging on private land).

The reasons are clear: native forestry is unpopular and unprofitable, contributes heavily to climate change and is a major cause of species decline.

Yet government-owned logging operations in NSW, Tasmania and Queensland continue to erode their remaining forest estates.

Logging impacts on habitats and species add up

The current practice of impact assessment means logging activities are evaluated individually, without looking at the broader history of land management. On their own, small areas of logging might seem insignificant. However, logging these small areas can add up to a much larger long-term habitat loss.

To assess what logging today means in terms of impacts on species, we need to assess how much habitat has been lost or degraded over long time periods.

We used historical loss and degradation as a baseline to evaluate recent logging events (from 2000 to 2022) across NSW. We found continued logging is having impacts on 150 threatened species.

Forty-three of these species now have 50% or less of their intact habitat remaining in NSW. They include the three brothers wattle, regent parrot and growling grass frog. Two species, Sloane’s froglet and Glenugie karaka, have less than 10% of intact habitat remaining.

Some species’ distributions had high overlaps with recent logging. They include the floodplain rustyhood (75% overlap with logging), Orara boronia (26%), Hakea archaeoides (24%), long-footed potoroo (14%), southern mainland long-nosed potoroo (12%) and southern brown bandicoot (9%). Species with the most distribution by area that overlapped with logging included koala (400,000 ha), south-eastern glossy black-cockatoo (370,000 ha) and spot-tailed quoll (southeast mainland population, 310,000 ha).

Our research shows the importance of a historical perspective. Almost all the forest-dependent species we assessed have suffered terribly from land clearing and fires over the past two centuries. They now survive in small parts of their natural range.

Logging this remaining habitat is forcing many of these species into an extinction vortex. Environmental impact assessments and decisions about land use (such as converting land into conservation zones, solar farms or logging areas) must consider the historical legacies of logging for these species.

How can we retain our remaining forest estate?

Australia is a signatory to many international conservation goals. For instance, the Global Biodiversity Framework aims to “ensure urgent management actions to halt human-induced extinction of known threatened species and for the recovery and conservation of species”. The Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration committed us to halt and reverse deforestation by 2030.

Logging native forests stands in stark contrast to these undertakings.

In Australia, the states regulate forestry and, strangely, own the forestry business themselves. However, the Commonwealth has the power to intervene and halt native forest logging. With the federal government in the throes of reforming nature laws and an election coming up, the choice is simple: lock in extinction by continuing rampant logging, or lock in species recovery by working with land managers to secure the future of these species.

Australia has a chequered recent history when it comes to protecting its environment. We have one of the highest mammal extinction rates in the world and the highest per capita greenhouse gas emissions of all OECD member countries. We are also the only developed nation identified as a deforestation hotspot.

Native forests are essential for carbon sequestration, biodiversity and the cultural wellbeing of First Nations and local communities. An easy win for all these interests is within our reach. Shifting from native forest logging to sustainable plantations will help protect these essential forests while still meeting wood demands.

Michelle Ward has received funding from The Australian Research Council and the Commonwealth National Environmental Science Program. She was Science and Research Lead at WWF-Australia and is currently on a Technical Advisory Panel for a project run by the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists.

David Lindenmayer receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Victorian Government, the Australian Government and the Ian Potter Foundation. He is a member of the Biodiversity Council and Birds Australia.

James Watson has received funding from the Australian Research Council, National Environmental Science Program, South Australia’s Department of Environment and Water, Queensland’s Depart of Environment, Science and Innovation as well as from Bush Heritage Australia, Queensland Conservation Council, Australian Conservation Foundation, The Wilderness Society and Birdlife Australia. He serves on scientific committees for Subak Australia and BirdLife Australia and has a long-term scientific relationship with Bush Heritage Australia and Wildlife Conservation Society. He serves on the Queensland Government’s Land Restoration Fund’s Investment Panel as the Deputy Chair.

– ref. More than half of NSW’s forests and woodlands are gone as ongoing logging increases extinction risks, study shows – https://theconversation.com/more-than-half-of-nsws-forests-and-woodlands-are-gone-as-ongoing-logging-increases-extinction-risks-study-shows-235416

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Norton, Professor in the Practice of Higher Education Policy, Australian National University

This week a Senate inquiry will look at the federal government’s controversial legislation to cap international student numbers in Australia from next year.

University-commissioned research predicts caps will cause a significant loss of revenue and jobs, including flow-on effects to the broader economy.

But my new report for the ANU’s Migration Hub, argues there are yet more reasons why the government’s international student cap is a bad idea.

The caps would add to many recent migration policy changes already reducing international student arrivals. Instead, we should wait to see whether these changes have done enough to bring numbers back to target levels.

What happened with international students?

Until late 2023, the Albanese government supported the return of international student numbers.

During 2022 and 2023 it cleared a backlog of student visa applications. It gave international students an additional two years in Australia after they graduated, provided they had one of a long list of qualifications.

These policies successfully rebuilt international education after the pandemic downturn. By May 2024 the resident student visa holder population, including partners and children of students, was 674,000. This was 58,000 more than the pre-COVID peak level. The combined total of students and temporary graduate visa holders was 887,000.

But by late 2023, the recovery of international education collided with rising rents and shrinking accommodation availability. The government hit the brakes on international education, and implemented multiple migration policy changes. Then, just before the May budget, it announced the caps, which it hopes will send student numbers into reverse.

The move to cap international students

If the legislation passes, the education minister will be able to cap international students by education provider, campus location and course. From January 1 2025, caps would apply to new international students, with ongoing students included in later years.

The legislation covers 1,500 education providers that deliver more than 25,000 courses in 3,900 locations. This includes schools, English language colleges, vocational education providers, universities, and non-university higher education providers such as the pathway colleges that many international students attend before moving on to a university.

At this point, there is no plan to cap school or research degree students. The focus of the 2025 caps will be non-school education providers in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane as these are the most popular cities for international students.

The case against caps

With course caps, the government hopes to steer international students away from current popular choices such as business degrees, and towards courses that meet Australia’s skills needs, such as in health and education.

The in-principle case against caps is that students should be free to choose their own courses and education providers.

But the policy rationale of meeting Australi’s skills needs is also flawed, as fewer than 20% of international students end up as permanent residents in Australia.

Principles aside, the education and migration systems are not ready to implement a capping regime in less than six months.

Several government agencies – the vocational education regulator, higher education regulator and Department of Home affairs (which manages student visas) – are so concerned they have gone public in Senate inquiry submissions. They say they cannot implement the caps with their existing setups.

9 changes already

To make matters more complex, Australia student migration system has already undergone significant changes in the past year.

Since 2023 the government has introduced nine major migration policy changes affecting future and former international students, with a tenth foreshadowed for later in 2024. Many of them have sensible goals.

To get a visa, prospective international students now need higher levels of English and more savings to support their stay in Australia.

The government has also introduced policies to block “non-genuine” students coming to Australia to work rather than study.

It has also more than doubled the visa application fee to A$1,600, which will divert student demand to other countries.

Other changes mean former students can spend less time in Australia. The government has also stopped temporary graduate visas to international graduates aged over 35, and reversed its earlier two-year extension of this visa.

Have we already done enough?

Several migration changes, including the higher visa application fee, are too recent to show in visa data.

But my report, using month-to-month data, shows the government’s policies have already had significant effects on vocational education, which includes students studying at TAFEs and their private-sector equivalents. In early 2024, monthly visa grants fell to the lowest level since 2005 apart from the two years of COVID border closure.

Higher education has been more resilient, but visa grants in early 2024 were running below their pre-COVID levels.

Policy changes aside, 2025 will be a more “normal” year in international education. The past few years have seen pent-up demand from 2020 and 2021, when students could not come to Australia, together with the students who would have arrived between 2022 and 2024 anyway.

As these students complete their courses and leave Australia, we will return to the usual pattern of departures significantly offsetting arrivals.

The government should wait and see

Amid all these changes and possible further disruption from caps, we are missing a key part of the puzzle.

The government should announce the target student visa levels underlying its capping policy.

It should then wait to see whether student visa application and grants for the remainder of 2024 and first semester 2025 put us on track to achieve them.

If not, then perhaps education provider caps should go back onto the policy agenda. Going ahead now risks far more harm to education providers, and the students who want to enrol with them, than is necessary to reduce Australia’s population.

Andrew Norton works for the Australian National University, which like all higher education institutions offering courses to international students is likely to incur significant revenue losses due to the policies described in the article.

– ref. Australia made 9 changes to student migration rules over the past year. We don’t need international student caps as well – https://theconversation.com/australia-made-9-changes-to-student-migration-rules-over-the-past-year-we-dont-need-international-student-caps-as-well-235964

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Justin Wastnage, Adjunct Industry Fellow, Griffith Institute for Tourism, Griffith University

The financial difficulties of Rex Airlines, coming so soon after the bankruptcy of Bonza, have brought into sharp focus one of the federal government’s key priorities for aviation: enhancing passenger rights.

In each case, passengers were left with tickets for flights that did not fly. In the case of Rex, tickets were honoured by rivals Virgin Australia and Qantas, possibly trying to recapture the small toehold Rex had established in the Brisbane-Sydney-Melbourne golden triangle.

The Bonza story was more complex as the fledgling airline, which collapsed in May, had sought to exploit under-serviced routes to smaller leisure-based cities including Maroochydore and Port Macquarie.

In many cases, passengers were left out-of-pocket and stranded.

Support for an ombudsman

These failures will have emboldened the federal government’s plans to introduce stronger passenger protections and an airline ombudsman.

The release of its policy white paper is imminent. The paper covers aviation issues including competition between airports and airlines, the sector’s environmental impact and better mechanisms for consultation.

After years of opposition, Qantas and Virgin quietly fell in behind the idea in May, signalling a deal is close to being announced.

The ombudsman is designed to protect consumer rights in what is often monopolistic or quasi-monopolistic operating environments. With the exception of residents of southeast Queensland and the western suburbs of Melbourne, most Australians only have one airport from which to fly.

This, coupled with an effective airline duopoly, can lead to higher prices and poorer service for consumers, the Australian Consumer and Competition Commission (ACCC) has argued.

The ACCC has been calling for better passenger rights for more than a decade. But its calls grew louder after it fined Qantas A$120 million for selling “ghost” flights in May.

Passengers did receive refunds, but the process was not easy compared to many overseas jurisdictions where compensation is automatic and based on distance travelled.

Australia is rare among developed countries for not having automatic compensation if a flight is cancelled or delayed.

The EU model

The leader in air passenger rights, as in many areas of consumer protection, is the European Union. The EU Passenger Rights regulation is 20 years old and now also applies to rail and bus passengers.

The regulation favours the passenger and awards compensation of up to €600 (almost A$1,000) for delays or cancellations. There are clauses for when a delay is unavoidable, but generally airlines have now built the scheme into their costs of doing business.

The scheme is well publicised and in 2022, about eight million passengers were eligible for refunds.

Air passenger rights in the UK continued in the EU mould after Brexit and were even strengthened.

But in a 2023 review into the UK scheme, some airlines argued “private insurance was a better option for some passengers”, particularly those with disabilities.

The same reasoning led to the removal of Australia’s previous consumer protection scheme for airline passengers, the Travel Compensation Fund, which refunded customers when airlines or travel agencies went bankrupt.

The scheme was ended under the Abbott government in June 2014, with travellers told instead to take out their own travel insurance.

Labor is expected to reintroduce an element of corporate responsibility for airline delays, not least since Brazil, Canada and Türkiye have also followed the EU’s lead.

Brazil’s scheme is particularly generous, with up to R7,500 (A$1,950) available to passengers who have to pay for last minute accommodation if their flight is cancelled.

Lawmakers there countered claims by airlines that low cost airline passengers could stay in cheaper hotels, by applying the compensation uniformly, regardless of travel class.

Popular with voters

Air passenger rights can be a vote winner, too. Before he withdrew his bid for reelection, US President Joe Biden trumpeted the automatic airline compensation scheme the US Department for Transportation will bring in this year.

Until now, airline compensation was mandated by the states without coordinated processes meaning some airlines used vouchers, some credits and a few cash to compensate customers.

Despite this, about US$3 billion (A$4.6 billion) in refunds have been issued to US passengers since 2020, including more than US$600 million to Southwest Airlines passengers alone.

This was due to a serious scheduling crisis which forced the low-cost carrier to cancel almost 60% of its flights in the 2022 summer.

By contrast, in Australia, air passengers have only had basic protections under consumer rights law since deregulation in 2002.

There is no guarantee of a seat or even flight the consumer purchased. This has led consumer advocates including Choice to support calls for an airline ombudsman and automatic delay and cancellation compensation.

The author previously worked as the director of aviation policy at the Tourism & Transport Forum that received funding from major airlines and airports.

– ref. If Australia had an aviation ombudsman, passengers could get compensation for cancelled flights – https://theconversation.com/if-australia-had-an-aviation-ombudsman-passengers-could-get-compensation-for-cancelled-flights-235679

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will switch the government’s focus in Indigenous affairs policy towards the economic empowerment of First Nations communities, in a speech at the Garma Festival in Arnhem Land on Saturday.

Addressing the festival nearly a year after the Voice referendum crashed, Albanese will say: “I have not returned to Garma today to talk about what might have been. I have not come back to this place of fire, to rake through the ashes. I am here because my optimism for a better future still burns.”

“We can be a country where Aboriginal and Torres Strait islander people have power over their destiny.”

The government’s new economic emphasis comes as many Indigenous people remain upset over the referendum’s failure. This weekend’s festival coincides with the appointment of Malarndirri McCarthy as the new Minister for Indigenous Australians, and the release this week of the latest Closing the Gap report, that showed several areas, including indigenous incarceration, going backwards. .

In his speech, released ahead of delivery, Albanese looks to global changes, specifically the energy revolution, as providing the opportunities for Australia’s First Nations people to prosper.

He says building “true and lasting self-determination requires economic security” for Indigenous people – security that exists “outside of government decisions, and endures beyond them”.

The changes in the global economy are making this possible, he says..

“Growing global demand for renewable energy, critical minerals and rare earths represents an unprecedented opportunity for our nation and for Northern Australia.”

The north has so many of the resources the world needs to transform to clean energy, Albanese says, and so much of the space and sunlight for Australia to be a renewable energy superpower.

The global economy is undergoing the biggest change since the industrial revolution, he says.

“And it also represents the best chance Australia has ever had to bring genuine self-determination and lasting economic empowerment to remote communities.

“New clean energy projects, new defence and security projects, new processing and refining facilities can all unlock new jobs and prosperity for Indigenous communities.”

Partnering from the start with locals means “we can avoid the exploitation and injustices of the past,” the Prime Minister says.

“And we can tackle the poverty and lack of opportunity that has seen disadvantage entrenched in these parts of our country over generations.

“Together, we can seize this moment to build a better future on a simple principle. The principle that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people deserve a real say in the economic development of the land you call home. And you deserve your fair share of the benefits that flow from it.

“This is about so much more than consulting communities in the service of cultural or heritage considerations, as important as that remains.”

Indigenous people “are more than curators or custodians, you are the traditional owners, who have cared for land and waters for 60,000 years and more.

“And we want you to have ownership of your future – built on a foundation of economic empowerment.

“This is about good jobs that change lives and strengthen communities – that provide a sense of pride and purpose, hope and aspiration. New careers in clean energy, construction, the care economy, technology, infrastructure and resources.

“These are creators of intergenerational opportunity.”

To promote delivery and accountabilty the goverbment is forming a First Nations Economic Partnership with the Coalition of Peaks, which represents a wide range of Indigenous organisations.

Tying the approach into the same principles as in the government’s Future Made in Australia policy, Albanese says: “We want government investment to drive engagement between businesses and communities, maximising local jobs and long-term benefit.

“And we want to see the same commitment in the First Nations Clean Energy Strategy we are developing with the states and territories.

“We want projects generating renewable energy on country, to bring new economic power to communities.”

Some needed changes were practical rather than political, such as helping Indigenous bodies and investors to connect.

“That’s why we are partnering with the First Nations Heritage Protection Alliance to create a central point of contact in communities to connect traditional owners and investors.”

Albanese was vague on the remaining issues of the Uluru Statement from the Heart.

He said the government remained committed to Makarrata which means “a coming together after a struggle.”

“And we will continue to engage in good faith with leaders and communities to decide what the next steps should be at a national level.”

Work on treaty and truth telling is being left to the states and territories at present.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Government’s focus pivots to economic empowerment for Indigenous Australians in Garma speech – https://theconversation.com/governments-focus-pivots-to-economic-empowerment-for-indigenous-australians-in-garma-speech-236059

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tamsin Phillipa Paige, Senior Lecturer, Deakin University

Sea Shepherd founder and anti-whaling activist Paul Watson has been arrested in Greenland and awaits potential extradition to Japan.

The arrest relates to incidents in the Southern Ocean in February 2010. The charges against Watson include “accomplice to an assault” and “ship trespass”. Both relate to the boarding of the Japanese vessel Shonan Maru No 2 by Pete Bethune, who was captain of the Sea Shepherd vessel Ady Gil. Bethune was detained on the Shonan Maru No 2 and returned to Japan for trial, where he received a suspended sentence. An international arrest warrant was issued for Watson in 2012.

At the time of the recent arrest on July 21, Watson’s ship had stopped for refuelling while en route to intercept a Japanese whaling vessel, the Kangei Maru. He was on board the John Paul DeJoria, owned by the Captain Paul Watson Foundation he founded two years ago.

Watson left Sea Shepherd in 2022, following disputes with directors over the value of direct action and confrontation. He originally founded Sea Shepherd after falling out with Greenpeace for similar reasons.

His arrest brings the issue of whaling back to the fore. Despite a flurry of activity in the courts a decade ago, the issue hasn’t gone away. That’s because Japan withdrew from the International Convention for the Regulation of Whaling and its decision-making body in 2019 and resumed commercial whaling.

What is an international arrest warrant?

An international arrest warrant, also referred to as a “Red Notice”, is a request to law enforcement all over the world to locate and provisionally arrest a person.

The Red Notice for Watson is based on an arrest warrant or court order issued by Japan. Importantly, a Red Notice is not a finding of guilt and the presumption of innocence still applies.

Now the arrest has been made, Japan is seeking extradition. The request went to Denmark because Greenland is an autonomous Danish territory.

What is the basis for the charges?

Two international treaties provide Japan with a legal basis for the charges laid against Watson.

Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of Sea, Japan can grant its nationality to ships, as it did with the Shonan Maru No 2. Nations have exclusive jurisdiction over ships flying their flag when that ship is on the high seas (international waters). This means Japan can treat the boarding of the Shonan Maru No 2 as if it happened on Japanese territory.

Japan may also argue the boarding of the Shonan Maru No 2 was an act of piracy. Under the convention, Japan would need to show the boarding was a case of:

illegal acts of violence or detention, or any act of depredation, committed for private ends by the crew or the passengers of a private ship or a private aircraft, and directed […] on the high seas, against another ship or aircraft, or against persons or property on board such ship.

The sticking point for Japan may be whether or not the boarding can be considered to be for “private ends”.

The convention for the suppression of unlawful acts against the safety of maritime navigation may also apply. In short, this grants jurisdiction over certain types of offences when they occur on board a ship flying the nation’s flag. For example, Japan may argue the alleged conduct of Watson and/or his colleagues was “an act of violence against a person on board a ship if that act is likely to endanger the safe navigation of that ship”.

Will Denmark extradite?

Extradition is often governed by a specific extradition agreement between two nations, as well as by a nation’s own domestic law. For example, the Extradition Act in Denmark permits extradition in certain circumstances. However, it also has limitations on that power, including to prevent double prosecutions, where a person faces trial more than once for the same conduct.

Extradition will not apply to prosecutions of crimes that are not also an offence in Denmark, abandoned prosecutions, or where a court accepts there is a risk that the person concerned:

will be subjected to persecution affecting his life or freedom or otherwise of a serious nature because of his or her origin, membership of a particular ethnic group, religious or political beliefs or otherwise because of political circumstance.

The relevant court in Denmark can also decide that extradition is temporarily suspended on serious humanitarian grounds.

Extradition is as much political as legal

In many ways, extradition is a fusion between “executive power” and the powers of the courts and the prosecutors, as well as involving foreign policy considerations. For this reason, it can be as much political as legal. This is why we have seen calls from other countries, such as France, for Denmark to abandon the arrest and not agree to extradition.

Political pressure can sometimes be effective in such cases, particularly in countries where there is ministerial discretion around whether to extradite.

What next?

Ultimately, Japan may choose to abandon its interest in prosecuting a warrant that is more than ten years old.

Or it may choose to exercise its full legal power in pursuing Watson, with the goal of deterring anti-whaling advocacy. However, this would likely attract criticism from other nations, given very few support whaling activity, and reduce willingness to cooperate with Japan on other extradition matters.

Either way, the tension between environmental advocacy and other commercial and legal interests is obvious. The law can – and should – find better ways to balance these interests, especially in the midst of an environmental crisis.

Tamsin Phillipa Paige has previously received funding from the Australian Government.

Danielle Ireland-Piper does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Former Sea Shepherd captain Paul Watson arrested on a Japanese warrant from 2012 – what next? – https://theconversation.com/former-sea-shepherd-captain-paul-watson-arrested-on-a-japanese-warrant-from-2012-what-next-235965

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cassandra Cross, Associate Dean (Learning & Teaching) Faculty of Creative Industries, Education and Social Justice, Queensland University of Technology

For many, tax time is an exciting part of the year – there’s the potential for a refund. However, it’s also an attractive time for fraudsters looking for ways to get money and deceive unsuspecting victims.

Each year Australians lose large amounts of money to scams. In 2023, Australians reported losses of more than A$2.7 billion. While this is a slight reduction from the $3.1 billion in 2022, there are still millions of victims who’ve suffered at the hands of scammers.

Impersonation scams are one common approach. Scamwatch reports that in 2023, 70% of reports to them involved impersonation.

A large number of these were linked to the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) and myGov.

What is an impersonation scam?

Impersonation scams are what they sound like: when an offender pretends to be someone or something they are not. Offenders may pretend to be family members or friends in our contact lists.

In many cases, they will say they’re from an organisation such as a bank or a well-known retailer, or a government department – like the ATO.

Offenders take on the identity of a known and trusted organisation to increase the chances of success. While we may ignore communications from unknown entities and strangers, we’re more likely to engage with what’s familiar.

Additionally, the ATO has a powerful status as a government agency, and we are unlikely to ignore its messages – especially at tax time.

What are they trying to get out of my myGov account?

myGov is the gateway to a range of government services, including Medicare, Centrelink, My Health Record, the National Disability Insurance Scheme, and of course, the ATO.

Being able to log in to myGov gives offenders access to a wide range of your personal details. This can help them build a fuller profile of you to potentially commit identity theft (such as opening new accounts in your name).

There’s also the potential for direct fraud. With access to myGov, offenders can change your bank account details and redirect any refunds into their accounts, whether from the ATO or other linked services.

They can even submit false tax returns, medical claims or other forms to obtain fraudulent funds. As the legitimate owner of the account, you may not immediately notice this.

What does a myGov scam look like?

In most instances, a myGov scam will look like one of the many phishing attempts we all receive on a daily basis. While each approach can be worded differently, their desired outcome is the same: to acquire your personal information.

Fraudsters are sending text messages and emails pretending to be from the ATO, advising you there’s a refund available if you click the provided link.

Another approach is to flag a “problem” with your tax return or bank account, and direct you to take immediate action via a link. Creating a sense of urgency can trick users into acting in the moment, without thinking through the request.

The text or email may also be very neutral, simply stating there’s a new message waiting – with a link to where you can read it.

Regardless of what the message says, the goal is to direct you to a website that looks genuine, but is fake. If you enter your myGov details into such a fake site, the offender can capture your login details and use them to log into your actual myGov account.

What to do if you’ve been a victim?

If you have clicked on a scam link and provided your personal details, there are steps you can take.

Change your password and review your account settings if you still have access to your myGov account.

Check your bank accounts, to see what, if anything, has been lost. Contact your bank or financial institution immediately if you notice any withdrawals or suspicious transactions.

Contact any other organisation linked to your myGov account to see if any unauthorised actions have been taken.

For anyone who has lost personal information and experienced identity crime, IDCARE is the national support centre for identity crime victims. They will be able to assist with a personalised response plan to your specific situation.

How do I keep my account safe?

Never click on links in text messages or emails that direct you to log in to your accounts. Always access your accounts independently, through details you have found independently of any text or email.

Review your security settings. There have been recent reports of people’s myGov accounts being targeted with repeated login attempts. Using your unique eight-digit myGov username for logging in can be safer than using your email address.

Enable multi-factor authentication where possible. myGov uses two-factor authentication in the form of a text message in addition to an online login. While this is not foolproof, it offers an additional layer of protection and can stop offenders accessing your account with only partial pieces of your information.

Be vigilant on all communications. Always keep in mind that all may not be what it seems and the person you are communicating with may not be who they say they are. It is okay to be sceptical and do your own checks to verify details of what is presented to you.

Remember, fraudsters thrive on the silence and shame of those who respond or fall victim to their scams. We need to communicate openly about these schemes and talk to family and friends, to increase everyone’s knowledge and awareness.

Cassandra Cross has previously received funding from the Australian Institute of Criminology and the Cybersecurity Cooperative Research Centre.

– ref. It’s tax time and scammers are targeting your myGov account. Here’s how to stay safe – https://theconversation.com/its-tax-time-and-scammers-are-targeting-your-mygov-account-heres-how-to-stay-safe-235785

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Catherine Campbell, Lecturer, Performing Arts, UniSA Creative, University of South Australia

A blind dinner date in a small high-rise apartment between a blandly dressed neat-freak with a professed admiration for alt-right male online celebs, and a colourful gender studies grad with a strong sense of social justice is falling apart.

It is about to be over – when an unnamed emergency causes the building and city to go into lockdown.

We follow the hilarious consequences of these two political polar-opposites being thrust together, with surprising outcomes.

The Questions is a gorgeous and joyful piece of new Australian musical theatre. Van Badham (book and lyrics) and long-term collaborator Richard Wise (music and lyrics) have created a stunning two-hander about an ultimate first-date disaster and finding connection despite differences.

Nestled amid the many hilarious moments in the rom-com musical are profound questions about what is really needed for two seemingly opposite people to really connect.

A beautiful construction

As “Visitor” and “Resident”, Chaya Ocampo and Charles Wu are a delight. They are adorable and mesmerising as the ill-met-by-lockdown odd couple. Their voices are stunning, and their playful and feisty engagement is electric.

They build the relationship between the two mismatched Gen Xers with an unwavering sense of playful connection: their development of the gradual intimacy and resulting fights and flare-ups is wonderful to observe.

The band is located onstage in an adjoining apartment. As the neighbours/house-and-band-mates, musicians Sam Lau (keys, guitar), James Bannah junior (keys) and Jackson Mack (drums) are just fabulous. Their playing and backing vocals are sharp, lively and well woven through the play.

Badham and Wise’s lyrics are delicious and devilishly clever with clever rhymes and quirky metaphors. They have a razor-sharp sense of the pulse of pop culture, and the songs and dialogue revel in those moments. The sudden moments of intimacy and of conflict are a joy.

Badham’s book is beautifully constructed with hilarious twists and starkly honest observations about the reality of dating when someone else is doing the matching – whether friend, app or random noodle server.

There are moments of recognition of the world of dating in an online world; sparks and sparring; the awkward and euphoric.

Navigated with energy and ease

The musical takes its title from the “36 questions to fall in love” developed by psychologist Arthur Aron in 1997. The device of the questions is used sparingly, the spotlight given to examining the developing relationship between the Resident and the Visitor.

Wise’s music effortlessly conveys the exciting-but-nervous first-date energy, pressure-cooker arguments and vulnerable, deep truth moments of love.

Wu’s solos have moments of breath-taking lyricism. His excellent voice and phrasing give nuance and depth to each moment.

Ocampo’s voice changes effortlessly from overexcited patter to reflective to no-holds-barred excitement or anger. Everything she sings is right in the middle of the note and sparkles with clarity and intention. They both navigate the often complex vocal lines with ease.

Mitchell Butel directs with wit and verve. His sense of the joy and fun of this piece is evident. His skill at conveying the sense of energies exploding in the contained space, while also giving the characters room to expand and steer their storytelling, is masterful.

The set by Jeremy Allen is a wonderful realisation of the world of Nordic-inspired neutrals, the interior of tiny, densely packed modern apartments repeated ad-infinitum. The slightly cartoonish style of the high-rises in the background (complete with lighted windows) evokes manga and keeps us located in the world of musical comedy.

The band’s room is a tiny glass box encroaching on the living room space of the Resident’s apartment. Clever use of micro venetians as actual room blinds screens the band from the action. The proximity of the neighbours and their observation of everything that happens in the fishbowl apartment next door is used to wonderful comic effect by the actors.

Gavin Norris’ lighting creates beautiful moments, isolating the actors during a solo, or abruptly changing the mood during a tense moment. The lighting gives the neutral tones of the set depth and colour, reflecting the changing moods of the characters and their inner emotions.

State Theatre Company South Australia has nurtured and developed this premiere piece with such care and joy. I left the theatre completely elated and my heart was full of beautifully made music and lyrics. I wanted to go back in and see it all again.

The Questions is at the State Theatre Company of South Australia until August 17.

Catherine Campbell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The Questions is a gorgeous and joyful piece of new Australian musical theatre – https://theconversation.com/the-questions-is-a-gorgeous-and-joyful-piece-of-new-australian-musical-theatre-235105

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrienne O’Neil, Professor, Food & Mood Centre, Deakin University

Around 3.2 million Australians live with depression.

At the same time, few Australians meet recommended dietary or physical activity guidelines. What has one got to do with the other?

Our world-first trial, published this week, shows improving diet and doing more physical activity can be as effective as therapy with a psychologist for treating low-grade depression.

Previous studies (including our own) have found “lifestyle” therapies are effective for depression. But they have never been directly compared with psychological therapies – until now.

Amid a nation-wide shortage of mental health professionals, our research points to a potential solution. As we found lifestyle counselling was as effective as psychological therapy, our findings suggest dietitians and exercise physiologists may one day play a role in managing depression.

What did our study measure?

During the prolonged COVID lockdowns, Victorians’ distress levels were high and widespread. Face-to-face mental health services were limited.

Our trial targeted people living in Victoria with elevated distress, meaning at least mild depression but not necessarily a diagnosed mental disorder. Typical symptoms included feeling down, hopeless, irritable or tearful.

We partnered with our local mental health service to recruit 182 adults and provided group-based sessions on Zoom. All participants took part in up to six sessions over eight weeks, facilitated by health professionals.

Half were randomly assigned to participate in a program co-facilitated by an accredited practising dietitian and an exercise physiologist. That group – called the lifestyle program – developed nutrition and movement goals:

• eating a wide variety of foods
• choosing high-fibre plant foods
• including high quality fats
• limiting discretionary foods, such as those high in saturated fats and added sugars
• doing enjoyable physical activity.

The second group took part in psychotherapy sessions convened by two psychologists. The psychotherapy program used cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT), the gold standard for treating depression in groups and when delivered remotely.

In both groups, participants could continue existing treatments (such as taking antidepressant medication). We gave both groups workbooks and hampers. The lifestyle group received a food hamper, while the psychotherapy group received items such as a colouring book, stress ball and head massager.

Lifestyle therapies just as effective

We found similar results in each program.

At the trial’s beginning we gave each participant a score based on their self-reported mental health. We measured them again at the end of the program.

Over eight weeks, those scores showed symptoms of depression reduced for participants in the lifestyle program (42%) and the psychotherapy program (37%). That difference was not statistically or clinically meaningful so we could conclude both treatments were as good as each other.

There were some differences between groups. People in the lifestyle program improved their diet, while those in the psychotherapy program felt they had increased their social support – meaning how connected they felt to other people – compared to at the start of the treatment.

Participants in both programs increased their physical activity. While this was expected for those in the lifestyle program, it was less expected for those in the psychotherapy program. It may be because they knew they were enrolled in a research study about lifestyle and subconsciously changed their activity patterns, or it could be a positive by-product of doing psychotherapy.

There was also not much difference in cost. The lifestyle program was slightly cheaper to deliver: A$482 per participant, versus $503 for psychotherapy. That’s because hourly rates differ between dietitians and exercise physiologists, and psychologists.

What does this mean for mental health workforce shortages?

Demand for mental health services is increasing in Australia, while at the same time the workforce faces worsening nation-wide shortages.

Psychologists, who provide about half of all mental health services, can have long wait times. Our results suggest that, with the appropriate training and guidelines, allied health professionals who specialise in diet and exercise could help address this gap.

Lifestyle therapies can be combined with psychology sessions for multi-disciplinary care. But diet and exercise therapies could prove particularly effective for those on waitlists to see a psychologists, who may be receiving no other professional support while they wait.

Many dietitians and exercise physiologists already have advanced skills and expertise in motivating behaviour change. Most accredited practising dietitians are trained in managing eating disorders or gastrointestinal conditions, which commonly overlap with depression.

There is also a cost argument. It is overall cheaper to train a dietitian ($153,039) than a psychologist ($189,063) – and it takes less time.

Potential barriers

Australians with chronic conditions (such as diabetes) can access subsidised dietitian and exercise physiologist appointments under various Medicare treatment plans. Those with eating disorders can also access subsidised dietitian appointments. But mental health care plans for people with depression do not support subsidised sessions with dietitians or exercise physiologists, despite peak bodies urging them to do so.

Increased training, upskilling and Medicare subsidies would be needed to support dietitians and exercise physiologists to be involved in treating mental health issues.

Our training and clinical guidelines are intended to help clinicians practising lifestyle-based mental health care within their scope of practice (activities a health care provider can undertake).

Future directions

Our trial took place during COVID lockdowns and examined people with at least mild symptoms of depression who did not necessarily have a mental disorder. We are seeking to replicate these findings and are now running a study open to Australians with mental health conditions such as major depression or bipolar disorder.

If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.

Adrienne O’Neil receives funding support from the National Health and Medical Research Council (#2009295). The CALM Trial was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council’s Medical Research Future Fund – COVID-19 Mental Health Research Australian Government Department of Health (GA133346).

Sophie Mahoney’s position is funded by a Medical Research Future Fund grant (2006296). The CALM Trial was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council’s Medical Research Future Fund – COVID-19 Mental Health Research Australian Government Department of Health (GA133346). Sophie has previously received payment from Red Island.

– ref. Food and exercise can treat depression as well as a psychologist, our study found. And it’s cheaper – https://theconversation.com/food-and-exercise-can-treat-depression-as-well-as-a-psychologist-our-study-found-and-its-cheaper-235952

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Doug Drury, Professor/Head of Aviation, CQUniversity Australia

It’s been a depressing year for regional aviation. Rex airlines has just become the second Australian airline to go into voluntary administration this year, after Bonza’s collapse in April.

Is Qantas’ Chief Executive Vanessa Hudson right – that there simply aren’t enough passengers in Australia to support more than three airlines?

That’s certainly a convenient narrative for the members of our domestic airline duopoly, Qantas and Virgin Australia, who now face even less competition.

Or did Rex fall victim to other airlines’ strategic management to limit the number of airport slots available to them to successfully fly between the capital cities? This practice is known as “slot hoarding”.

On Thursday, the former chair of the the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), Rod Sims, seemed to think so, telling ABC radio:

The government outsources the management of the slots at Sydney airport to a company that’s majority-owned by Qantas and Virgin, it is just unbelievable.

It’s certainly not a new allegation. Rex, Bonza, and the ACCC have all previously raised concerns.

So how exactly do airline slots work, and does the system need reform?

Read more:
Rex Airlines’ future up in the air amid questions about viability of small airlines in Australia

What are slots?

Back in the 1970s, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) developed the airline slot system to reduce airport congestion. The aim was to improve the traffic flow during peak travel times at “level 3” high traffic density airports – a category that includes Sydney and Melbourne.

Under the system, airlines are allocated a daily number of slots they can use. Importantly, there is a set amount of slots available, as they represent specific time windows for aircraft to take off or land.

Airlines schedule their slots ahead of time as part of a yield management program. This plan looks across the whole calendar year, taking into account projected peak and off-peak travel times for business and leisure travellers.

An airline owns the time slot it is designated by the airport infrastructure capacity, whether it gets used or not.

The IATA system relies on what’s called the “80/20 rule”, which states an airline must use 80% of its allocated slots or it will loose its unused slots. The 20% is a buffer. But it has been criticised as overly generous.

Airlines can also buy sell or lease, slots they are not using due to slow demand or the need for financial gain. These can sell for huge sums.

Can slots be hoarded?

Broadly speaking, slot hoarding is the practice of booking slots for use only to cancel them in bad faith, preventing other airlines from getting access to premium travel times.

In June last year, Rex’s then-deputy-chairman John Sharp accused Qantas of engaging in the practice:

It’s as plain as the nose on your face that Qantas is hoarding slots by cancelling sufficient flights to remain within the 80/20 rule.

Slot availability is a particular issue for Sydney Airport, because takeoffs and landings are capped at 80 per hour.

Sydney Airport Corporation’s executive general manager of aviation, Robert Wood, as well as the airport’s then-chief-executive Geoff Culbert also both expressed serious concerns about slot use last year.

In February this year, the federal government unveiled a range of reforms for Sydney airport’s slot system. These included requirements for increased transparency on how slots are used, and new independent audits.

Notably though, the government made no change to the 80/20 rule.

What needs to change?

A number of further reforms could help make the airport system friendlier to new entrants and more equitable.

One possibility is to sell a predefined number of slots to the major participating airlines. Airlines would have to make a business case outlining their proposed needs over the next calendar year.

Currently, airlines request slots from the airport slot management team at no cost to the airline, a system which favours established airlines that have met the 80/20 rule.

But a key criticism of this proposal is that the cost of purchasing slots would be passed down to the flying public, likely resulting in higher airfares. Bidding for slots would also add new cost barriers to entry for would-be startup challengers.

Another possibility is to look at slot allocation based on fairness, measuring an airline’s needs against airport infrastructure.

Airlines that had historically used 80% of their allocated slots would be given priority bidding on up to 50% of the following year’s total airport slot allocation.

The remaining 50% of slots could be prioritised for new airlines without an established history, with the goal of awarding them take off and landing times that aren’t necessarily premium, but close enough.

Airlines that didn’t achieve this 80% target or were found to be abusing the slot hoarding rules would be removed from the top-tier fairness status and placed in a slot allocation “sin bin” until their performance measures were brought up to standards.

Australia has challenges ahead for domestic flights that are already at capacity. Government reforms that provide better oversight of airport usage of the 80/20 rule could help mitigate the risk of anti-competitive behaviour.

Australian airlines have the right to compete without feeling unfairly held back, and we as consumers have the right to reasonable airfares.

Read more:
What just happened to Bonza? Why new budget airlines always struggle in Australia

Doug Drury does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What is ‘slot hoarding’ – and is it locking out regional airlines like Rex? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-slot-hoarding-and-is-it-locking-out-regional-airlines-like-rex-235960

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ana Manero, Research Fellow, Australian National University

Ever since Polynesian pioneers took to the ocean on wooden rafts, people have been hooked on riding waves. Today, surfing is one of the world’s fastest-growing sports and one of the latest additions to the Olympic games.

Surfing is especially valuable to Australia. My new research shows surf-related expenditure contributes nearly A$3 billion to the Australian economy every year. And the mental health benefits to Australian surfers are in the order of $6 billion a year.

Yet many surf breaks are subject to coastal erosion, water pollution and other threats. The surfing event in Tahiti for this year’s Olympics is a case in point: it involved drilling into delicate coral reef to build a new judging tower.

It’s vital to recognise and measure the true benefits of surfing in dollar terms, so decision-makers realise it makes sense to invest in protecting Australia’s surf breaks.

The economics of surfing

Waves are essentially free. All you need is a surfboard and you’re set. Well, you might want to grab yourself a leg rope and a wetsuit too.

If you have a wave virtually at your doorstep, it’s likely you’re paying a real estate premium. Otherwise, you’re probably spending your weekends chasing waves up and down the coast. You may even have your family in tow. The costs soon add up.

Using an online survey of 569 Australian surfers, my team and I explored the influence of recreational surfing on the economy and people’s wellbeing. We found the average Australian surfer spends more than $3,700 a year, within Australia, on surfing-related purchases. Half goes on equipment, while the rest is spent on domestic travel. A further $1,975 is spent on international travel.

There are an estimated 727,000 Australian adult surfers, which brings the total spend to $2.71 billion every year being pumped into the domestic economy. If we factor in flow-on effects, such as business-to-business spending, the overall contribution of recreational surfing comes to $4.88 billion.

Economic impacts can inform government priorities and public decisions affecting coastal management. For example, the 2023 Margaret River Pro drew $8 million and 3,500 visitors to the region. These figures, as well as local and international support, encouraged the organisers to renew the contest until 2028.

Mental health and wellbeing

Besides direct economic impacts, surfing contributes to participants’ wellbeing in multiple ways.

In our survey, more than 94% of respondents reported improvements in their physical and mental health, as well as their ability to deal with stress and difficulty in their lives.

More than 75% of surfers reported an improvement in their sense of belonging to a community and ability to foster positive relationships.

One way to measure wellbeing in economic terms is by comparing workplace productivity and healthcare costs between groups. Previous research has quantified the benefits of being in nature to mental health, using data from national parks visits. When applying this approach to surfing, the researchers found gains in surfers’ mental health worth $7,650 per person per year – or $5.6 billion across Australia’s surfers.

Deadly but delicate

The first-time inclusion of surfing in the 2020–21 Tokyo Olympics was hailed as a landmark recognition of the sport’s cultural significance. A year later, surfing was admitted as a permanent Olympic sport.

But built infrastructure, such as ports and sea walls, human-induced climate change, coastal erosion and water pollution are endangering waves around the world.

The tiny village of Teahupo’o, in Tahiti, is home to one of the world’s “heaviest” waves. But some residents feared the Olympics would irreversibly damage their pristine environment. In response, visitor numbers were capped and construction minimised.

The world-renowned wave of Mundaka, in Spain’s Basque Country, disappeared in 2005 as a result of dredging activity in the nearby rivermouth. The wave eventually came back, but the area had already suffered a slowdown in economic growth, including the cancellation of a professional contest.

In Australia, three surf breaks were lost to construction of Perth’s Ocean Reef marina in 2022. Local residents’ calls for an artificial reef are now being considered.

Protection for a precious resource

Australia is blessed with more than 1,440 surf breaks and a surf-loving culture.

But if we want those waves to exist for future generations, we must look after them now.

A good starting point could be to include surf breaks in the Australia State of the Environment Report. The review already evaluates pressures on recreational fishing, snorkelling and scuba diving – but not surfing, despite it attracting more participants than the other three sports combined.

Form a legal standpoint, only a few of our waves are protected: the iconic Bells Beach in Victoria comes under the Heritage Act 2027. A dozen of “surfing reserves” in New South Wales are safeguarded by the Crown Lands Act 1989. In Queensland, coastal protection policies are being developed for the Noosa and Gold Coast World Surfing Reserves.

Across the world, more countries are adopting protections for surfing’s recreational and environmental values. In Brazil, the waves at Doce River Mouth were recently granted special protection, as a new bill acknowledged the ocean as a living being with intrinsic rights.

The goal to better understand and protect the value of surf breaks is in line with the 2021–30 Oceans Decade, a United Nations initiative to leverage scientific knowledge for ocean sustainability.

It’s often said “only a surfer knows the feeling” of riding a wave, but research quantifying the benefits of surfing can help decision-makers appreciate the need to preserve a truly irreplaceable resource.

Ana Manero is a volunteer with not-for-profit Surfing Mums.

– ref. Save our waves: surfing pumps $2.71 billion into the Australian economy and boosts wellbeing – https://theconversation.com/save-our-waves-surfing-pumps-2-71-billion-into-the-australian-economy-and-boosts-wellbeing-235579

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Greste, Professor of Journalism and Communications, Macquarie University

The photo of returning prisoners in an American plane, all grinning from ear to ear, says it all: the joy, the relief and the success of an incredibly complicated mission.

The freeing of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, Radio Free Europe journalist Alsu Kurmasheva, former US Marine Paul Whelan and a host of others is the biggest prisoner exchange since the end of the Cold War.

In all, 26 people from seven different countries were freed in a mindbogglingly complex agreement that took years to negotiate. They included 16 imprisoned in Russia: the three Americans, a host of Russian political prisoners, and a 19-year-old Russian-German national jailed for taking photographs of a Russian military base.

In return, eight Russians were also released – the most notorious among them, Vadim Krasikov, a colonel in the Federal Security Service jailed in Germany for murdering a former Chechen rebel in Berlin in 2019.

Freedom for those unjustly imprisoned is indisputably wonderful news, even if it is way overdue, and the Biden administration deserves credit for its work in negotiating the deal. But this case could also set up an international precedent: journalists can be used as geopolitical bargaining chips.

Journalists as leverage

Gershkovich had the highest profile of those detained by Russia. From the day the journalist was arrested in March 2023 on espionage charges, it was clear the only way out would be through some kind of negotiation.

From the outset, Russia failed to produce any evidence to validate their claims that he was a spy and not a highly competent journalist simply doing his job. And in February, Russian President Vladimir Putin told Fox News’s Tucker Carlson:

the special services are in contact with one another. They are talking […] I believe an agreement can be reached.

Because of their role, foreign correspondents are tempting fodder for governments looking for easy victims to use as leverage. Reporters carry cameras and notebooks, talk to political opponents and gather information in ways that are easily presented as espionage.

They are generally high-profile, working for companies with the ability to pressure their own governments to make deals. And their arrest sends a chilling message to other journalists, both local and foreign: challenge the official narrative at your peril.

This was the case with The Washington Post’s Tehran Bureau Chief Jason Rezaian, who was imprisoned in Iran, and the Al Jazeera Three (including myself), detained in Egypt on terrorism charges.

But this deal also makes it more likely that in future, journalists and other civilians will be caught and traded between governments as bargaining chips.

Russia has got what it wanted: the return of what The Economist colourfully described as, “assassins, smugglers, hackers and the deep-cover agents known as ‘illegals’.”

The United States, then, has to live with the fact it helped free people serving time for crimes as severe as murder.

How do governments navigate this?

It is an almost impossible dilemma for governments trying to free innocent detainees. Do they stand firm and refuse to negotiate, risking anger at home for abandoning their own nationals? Or do they do a deal as the US did, and risk more detentions and more negotiations in future?

While the deals are impossibly complex, the long-term solution lies in a straightforward calculus: the price of detaining foreign hostages must ultimately be made higher than the value those hostages represent as prisoners.

The Canadian government has an idea that might just help. In 2021, in typically awkward diplomatic language, it launched, “The Declaration Against Arbitrary Detention in State-to-State Relations”.

In simple terms, the declaration is creating a coalition of states committed to stopping the practice. Currently, it is a rather bland set of bullet points expressing “grave concern about the use of arbitrary arrest or detention by States to exercise leverage over foreign governments, contrary to international law”. It also reaffirms “the fundamental importance of the rule of law, independence of the judiciary, (and) respect for human rights […]”

But behind it lies the seed of a potentially powerful strategy. If enough governments agree to collectively act against any state that grabs a foreign hostage, it raises the price of keeping them while avoiding the need to start one-on-one negotiations.

Those actions don’t need to be dramatic. Placing the status of a hostage at the top of the agenda of every diplomatic meeting is a good start. Making the issue a point of friction in trade deals is another. So too is making visas difficult for official visits.

No single action needs to be expensive for those countries that are part of the coalition, but for a rogue state holding hostages, all those points of pressure add up to make the practice more trouble than it is worth.

The idea can’t guarantee there will never be another innocent like Gershkovich or Whelan unjustly imprisoned for political leverage, but it might reverse an awful trend. As Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly declared:

Hostage diplomacy is an unacceptable and abhorrent practice. It threatens international peace and security and contravenes international law. It inflicts immeasurable harm on victims and their friends and families. It must stop.

Peter Greste is Professor of Journalism at Macquarie University, and the Executive Director for the advocacy group, the Alliance for Journalists’ Freedom.

– ref. The US-Russia prisoner swap shows how journalists risk being used as geopolitical bargaining chips – https://theconversation.com/the-us-russia-prisoner-swap-shows-how-journalists-risk-being-used-as-geopolitical-bargaining-chips-236052