Analysis by By Geoffrey Miller.
Political Roundup: NZ’s Middle East strategy, 20 years after the Iraq War
This week marks the twentieth anniversary of the Iraq War.
While it strongly opposed the US-led invasion, New Zealand’s then Labour-led government led by Prime Minister Helen Clark did deploy military engineers to try to help rebuild Iraq in mid-2003.
With violence soaring, their 12-month deployment ended without being renewed further, in 2004.
However, New Zealand re-entered Iraq in 2015 as part of the international coalition against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) terrorist group.
The emergence and growth of ISIS was one of many unintended consequences of the Iraq War’s disastrous and bloody aftermath.
The Government announced last year that the remaining two New Zealand personnel deployed as part of the coalition will be withdrawn by the end of June.
New Zealand first opened an embassy in Baghdad in 1975 – one of its first missions in the Middle East – only to close it again in 1983.
An embassy was re-established in Iraq in 2015 to support military operations, but the post was again closed in 2020 as the anti-ISIS mission wound down.
The time might be right for New Zealand to take another look at Iraq.
The past twenty years have been a long bloody road – but there is now a little optimism in the air.
Monthly civilian deaths caused by conflict in Iraq are now at their lowest levels since the US invaded in 2003, according to the Iraq Body Count group.
And the surprise pledge by Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore diplomatic ties has the potential to reshape the region.
Behind the unexpected deal was an unexpected mediator – China – but much of the groundwork had also been laid by Iraq in talks that began in 2021. The Gulf state of Oman has also played a pivotal role.
In theory, Iraq – which has significant Sunni, Shia and Kurdish populations and sits geographically between Saudi Arabia and Iran – is perhaps a natural location for attempts to de-escalate regional tensions.
Baghdad hosted a major new summit initiative co-organised with French President Emmanuel Macron in 2021, which inspired a follow-up event in Jordan in December that was dubbed ‘Baghdad II’.
The Iranian and Saudi foreign ministers spoke to each other on the sidelines of the conference in Amman, the Jordanian capital.
Iran has arguably been the big winner of ongoing turmoil and unrest in Iraq since 2003.
Many political parties have the backing of Tehran, as do militia groups that operate under the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) banner.
Last year, the PMF managed to quell protests outside Baghdad’s powerful Green Zone area from supporters of Shi’ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose party had won the biggest share of the vote in 2021 elections.
Sadr has now withdrawn from the political process. The outcome has been the formation of a government by the Coordination Framework bloc of anti-Sadr Shiite parties, led by new Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani.
It remains to be seen whether a government that excludes the most popular party led by Sadr can gain legitimacy in the eyes of Iraqis, or whether it can solve long-standing problems including rampant corruption, general economic malaise, poverty and high unemployment.
Around a quarter of Iraq’s population of 43 million live below the poverty line, while over a third of young people aged under 24 are unemployed.
It is also unclear whether the Saudi-Iranian resumption of diplomatic ties will grow into something more – and whether Iran will dial down its role in Iraqi domestic politics.
But China’s involvement in the deal suggests that Iran and Saudi Arabia may have realised there is more to be gained from working together than fighting old battles.
In addition to being a major player in Iraq, Iran has also been a key actor in long-running civil wars in Syria and Yemen.
The war in Syria has killed over 300,000 civilians and created over five million refugees – with many others displaced internally. The conflict in Yemen – called the world’s worst humanitarian crisis by the UN’s World Food Programme, has led directly or indirectly to some 400,000 deaths.
In both conflicts, Iran and Saudi Arabia have backed opposing sides – and supplied ample weaponry.
However, the civil wars may finally be coming to an end.
Reports have suggested that Tehran agreed to stop sending arms to Houthi rebels in Yemen as part of the deal with Saudi Arabia, while there are signs that Riyadh is facing up to the fact that President Bashar al-Assad has defeated Saudi-backed rebels in Syria.
Peace would be good news for the Middle East.
However, a deal involving China, Iran and Saudi Arabia – matched with Assad’s likely victory in Syria – shows the shifts will probably come without democracy.
The commitment by Tehran and Riyadh to at least contemplate burying the hatchet – with Beijing’s assistance – shows that a more economic focus could be on the horizon.
For New Zealand, which has maintained embassies in Beijing, Tehran and Riyadh for decades, any rapprochement could boost long-term trade prospects in the Middle East.
Iran – now home to 80 million people – was once the second-biggest buyer of New Zealand lamb.
For its part, Iraq holds the fifth-largest proven oil reserves in the world.
Newly-built skyscrapers in the Kurdish-controlled northern city of Erbil show that this wealth is already being felt by some – if not by all.
Syria – which also suffered enormously from last month’s Turkish earthquake – and Yemen will need much greater reconstruction efforts. However, the rebuild could happen faster than expected, especially if Chinese investment is forthcoming.
Iraq, Syria and Yemen are also likely to benefit from their relative proximity to the wealthy Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries of the Arabian Peninsula, which already constitute New Zealand’s seventh-biggest export market.
However, not everything is straightforward with the Saudi-Iran deal.
For one, Iran is supplying dozens of killer Shahed drones to Russia for use in its unrelenting war on Ukraine.
And Amnesty International last week said Iran’s security forces have used ‘horrific’ tactics – including torture and rape – to crush recent human rights protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini in September.
Nanaia Mahuta, New Zealand’s foreign minister, recently condemned Iran’s ‘violent repression of protest activity’ in a speech to the UN Human Rights Council – and imposed travel bans and other restrictions on members of the country’s leadership.
New Zealand may be wary of getting involved too deeply in the Middle East.
Change is clearly underway – but the region is likely to remain a diplomatic minefield.
But if Beijing is interested, Wellington probably should be too.
New Zealand may want to think about re-opening its embassy in Baghdad – again.
Geoffrey Miller is the Democracy Project’s geopolitical analyst and writes on current New Zealand foreign policy and related geopolitical issues. He has lived in Germany and the Middle East and is a learner of Arabic and Russian. He is currently working on a PhD on New Zealand’s relations with the Gulf states.
Further reading on Foreign Affairs
Gareth Hughes (Stuff): Will New Zealand be dragged into a war between Aukus and China?
Simon Shepherd (Newshub): China expert Anne-Marie Brady says New Zealand should have de-emphasised trade with Beijing as geopolitical tensions increase
Robert Patman (Stuff): Why New Zealand should remain sceptical about Aukus
Martyn Bradbury (Daily Blog): AUKUS vs NZ – Andrew Little is going to need a bigger waka (and drone) – why Māori Party neutrality matters
RNZ: US defence official says door is open for further talks with New Zealand
Thomas Manch (Stuff): Joe Biden official Kurt Campbell says US-NZ agreement on ‘cutting edge’ technology to come
Thomas Manch (Stuff): Why China’s Embassy met with NZ officials over the US ‘spy’ balloon saga
Tess McClure (Guardian): New Zealand to ban TikTok from government devices
Ireland Hendry-Tennent (Newshub): TikTok banned on government devices over security concerns from Chinese-owned app
Anna Whyte and Thomas Manch (Stuff): TikTok ban across NZ Parliamentary-devices incoming
RNZ: Parliamentary Service bans TikTok on its devices
Other items of interest and importance today
LOBBYING, CONSULTANTS, CONTRACTORS
Guyon Espiner (RNZ): Lobbying firms earning hundreds of thousands from contracts with government agencies
Phil Pennington (RNZ): Govt pays contractors 8.5% more in wages overall in 2022, 46% more for lower paid jobs
Martien Lubberink: Radio New Zealand and KPMG on banking this week
Anna Whyte (Stuff): Ministry in charge of MIQ grew managerial staff by 200 in two years
GREENS
Simon Shepherd and Molly Swift (Newshub): Former Green MP Gareth Hughes criticises party’s muted response to Government’s axing of climate policies
Finn Hogan and Gray Gibson (Newshub): Newshub Nation: Marama Davidson defends Green’s ability to enact change after Labour’s policy bonfire
Claire Trevett (Herald): The Green Party could have walked out on Labour after Chris Hipkins’ moves this week. Why did James Shaw hold back? (paywalled)
Liam Hehir (The Blue Review): Bluegreen James Shaw’s impossible balance
Martyn Bradbury (Daily Blog): What happens if Greens made a State of the Planet speech and neither the State or Planet noticed?
Steven Cowan: State of the planet: uninspiring speech from James Shaw
Glenn McConnell (Stuff): Greens call for Capital Gains Tax and end to petrol tax cuts at party rally
William Hewett (Newshub): Co-leader James Shaw, Marama Davidson call for stronger climate action at Greens State of the Planet speech
RNZ: Greens lay down climate change election challenge to other parties
Glenn McConnell (Stuff): Greens to use ‘State of the Planet’ speech to rally the Left, as Labour turns to centre
Adam Pearse (Herald): National responds to Greens’ ‘race-baiting’ broadside: ‘No interest in working with them’
Rachel Sadler and Ruwani Perera (Newshub): ACT, Greens launch attacks over ‘ineffectiveness’, ‘reactionary, race-baiting’ politics
Adam Pearse (Herald): Greens co-leader jokes National will dump Christopher Luxon amid warning of ‘race-baiting’ National/Act Govt
Giles Dexter (RNZ): Frustrated Greens take aim at ‘visionless government’ and possible National-ACT coalition
RNZ: Rainbow Greens ask government to ban anti-transgender activist from New Zealand
Nina Brown (Critic Te Ārohi) Former Green Party Co-leader Joins Law Faculty
TE PĀTI MĀORI
1News Q+A: ‘Tiriti-centric’ – Te Pāti Māori on its coalition aspirations
Adam Pearse (Herald): Potential kingmaker Māori Party avoids indicating Labour or National coalition preference
STUART NASH
Jarrod Gilbert (Herald): Stuart Nash’s resignation as Police Minister the right call (paywalled)
Tim Watkin (Pundit): Saving Stuart Nash: Explaining Chris Hipkins’ Unexpected Political Calculation
Jo Moir (Newsroom): Hipkins loses sight of his no-distractions policy
Claire Trevett (Herald): Sacking Stuart Nash was the easy option for PM Chris Hipkins. Why didn’t he take it? (paywalled)
Sasha Borissenko: (Herald): Stuart Nash and conflict of interest, where do you draw the line?
Fran O’Sullivan (Herald): The too-high price of speaking your mind (paywalled)
Craig McCulloch (RNZ): Making a Nash of it: The self-destruct sequence of
a police minister
Gordon Campbell: On firing Stuart Nash, plus a music playlist
Hawke’s Bay Today: Reverse Spin: Will Stuart Nash survive? The answer is blowing in the wind (paywalled)
Heather du Plessis-Allan (Herald): Demoting Nash down the Cabinet rankings means nothing (paywalled)
Paula Bennett (Herald): PM Chris Hipkins a chicken over Stuart Nash scandal (paywalled)
Phil Smith (RNZ): The House: Political pile-on or Parliament as designed?
RNZ: Stuart Nash demoted to bottom of Cabinet, now on his ‘final warning’ – Hipkins
Glenn McConnell (Stuff): Stuart Nash demoted, but stays in Cabinet and on final warning, PM says
Ireland Hendry-Tennent (Newshub): Prime Minister Chris Hipkins demotes Stuart Nash, places him on ‘final warning’ after details of another meddling incident emerge
Jenna Lynch (Newshub): Christopher Luxon, Brooke van Velden accuse Chris Hipkins of ‘weak leadership’ by failing to sack Stuart Nash
Mark Quinlivan (Newshub): Michael Wood says Jacinda Ardern ‘likely’ knew Solicitor-General was considering charging Stuart Nash but ‘can’t say for sure’
Adam Pearse (Herald): Stuart Nash pokes fun at Cabinet demotion in social media post
Steve Braunias (Herald): The secret diary of … Stuart Nash (paywalled)
Victor Billot (Newsroom): An Ode to .. Stuart Nash
ECONOMY, POLICY BONFIRE, COST OF LIVING
Mark Quinlivan (Newshub): PM Chris Hipkins denies Government was out of touch with now-dumped policies
Kate MacNamara (Herald): Cost of living: Fuel tax reduction – official advice warns Government’s policy too broad and expensive (paywalled)
Thomas Coughlan (Herald): Government considered giving up to $5k to each Kiwi during the pandemic – was it a good idea? (paywalled)
Hayden Donnell (RNZ): Mediawatch: Climate policies burn on the bread and butter bonfire
Liam Dann (Herald): Why banking crisis means cheaper petrol and (maybe) lower mortgage rates (paywalled)
Catherine Knight (Newsroom): Why our economy is too important to leave to the experts
Damien Grant (Stuff): The war with inflation is over. Inflation has won
Dan Brunskill (Interest): Could RBNZ rate hikes end as soon as next month?
Susan Edmunds (Stuff): Govt debt, spending more than it earns may put country’s credit rating at risk
Herald Editorial: Spending like there’s no tomorrow (paywalled)
PARLIAMENT
Luke Malpass (Stuff): Stuart Nash Cabinet demotion, really? Chris Hipkins may have just delayed the inevitable
Herald Editorial: Labour, National playing it safe in election year with one goal in mind (paywalled)
Richard Harman (Politik): Kicking National’s tyres (paywalled)
Tova O’Brien (Today FM): Coup me once shame on me, coup me twice shame on you
Shane Te Pou (Herald): If not Christopher Luxon, could Shane Reti or Erica Stanford lead National? (paywalled)
Stuff: Points of order: He’s a man few get to see. Christopher Luxon, after hours
Thomas Coughlan (Herald): Beehive Diaries: Nicola Willis woman of the moment, Māori Party has Te Puke moment (paywalled)
Peter Wilson (RNZ): Week in Politics: Nash’s resignation upsets Hipkins’ family-friendly week
Melanie Reid (Newsroom): From politician to pimp – the transformation of Jami-Lee Ross
Herald: Ex-National MP Jami-Lee Ross running escort agency Sapphire Blue – reports
Stuff: The politicians that have quit this year and why they are leaving
Felix Desmarais (1News): ‘It’s pretty brutal’: Outgoing MP Todd Muller on politics
Adam Pearse (Herald): Former National leader Todd Muller forgoes political dream in decision to resign
Kiri Gillespie and Megan Wilson (Bay of Plenty Times): Bay of Plenty MP Todd Muller, National, retires from politics: ‘No regrets’ after roller-coaster career
Thomas Manch and Glenn McConnell (Stuff): Former National leader Todd Muller to step down at election, without regret
Thomas Manch (Stuff): Whangārei MP Emily Henderson to retire from Parliament, after three years
Phil Smith (RNZ): The House: The ominously named Shadow Leader
Jonah Franke (Stuff): ‘It’s harder than I thought it would be’ – Tama Potaka’s first 100 days
Finn Hogan: Newshub Nation Backstory: ACT MP Simon Court recounts harrowing brush with death from meningitis
WELLINGTON CENTRAL LABOUR CANDIDATE SELECTION
Matthew Hooton: Labour Party Members are Revolting: 1990 Possible? (paywalled) (paywalled)
Adam Pearse (Herald): Wellington Central electorate: Labour chooses Ibrahim Omer as candidate to replace Grant Robertson in hotly-contested seat
Newshub: Election 2023: MP Ibrahim Omer defeats former Labour president Claire Szabo in race to replace Grant Robertson as Wellington Central candidate
Audrey Young (Herald): Election 2023: Labour’s Wellington Central selection battle – Claire Szabo vs Ibrahim Omer
BUSINESS, BANKS, EMPLOYMENT
Rob Stock (Stuff): Bank profits: ‘Comparing the banking industry to building companies is ridiculous’
Duncan Bridgeman (Herald): CEO Pay Survey: NZ’s top bosses richer than ever following big pay rises (paywalled)
Tom Pullar-Strecker (Stuff): Commerce Commission holds 3 meetings, sends 9 letters, 61 emails in 1112-hour probe
Tom Pullar-Strecker (Stuff): Commerce Minister says supermarket split ‘difficult’ but promises competition reforms won’t stop
Ganesh Nana (Herald): The future of supply chains is bleak … but so was the past (paywalled)
Kate MacNamara (Herald): Alleged misrepresentation in procurement but public contract stands for embattled firm We Are Indigo (paywalled)
RNZ: RBNZ ‘confident’ NZ banks ready for any market upheaval
Bridie Witton (Stuff): Expect more disruption due to climate change, rural sector warned by minister
Toby Morris (Spinoff): The Side Eye: Case of the missing dads
Adam Pearse (Herald): Govt working on allowing bars to open for 2023 Rugby World Cup
John Roughan (Herald): Cost of living, inflation: Chris Hipkins’ decisions show Government scared of upcoming election (paywalled)
Mark Quinlivan (Newshub): Government’s policy bonfire won’t even come close to saving enough cash – Steven Joyce
Mike Treen (Daily Blog): Taxing wealth is an essential part of the only road forward in the crises we face
Bruce Cotterill (Herald): $2b for welfare – is that our best spending choice?
1News: Students say $20 allowance increase a cost-of-living ‘band-aid’
CYCLONE GABRIELLE
Andrea Vance (Stuff): Cyclone Gabrielle: Some blindsided by red zone proposals
Henry McMullan (1News): Displaced Hawke’s Bay families wonder where to turn next
Marty Sharpe (Stuff): ‘Someone has to pay’: The messy and costly dilemma of contaminated silt
1News: Muriwai residents allowed back home for short visits
James Perry (Whakaata Māori): Calls for resilient internet for marae in the wake of cyclone devastation
Siena Yates (E-Tangata): Why our marae will always open in a crisis
1News: Special Lotto draw raises over $11m for cyclone relief
ENVIRONMENT, CONSERVATION
Andrea Vance (Stuff): Thousands of birds die at important wetland, from deadly disease caused by pollution
Andrea Vance (Stuff): Pounamu slows Labour’s ban on mining conservation land
Tim Cadogan (Southland Times): Short-term concerns should not be ahead of the generational devastation
EDUCATION
John Gerritsen (RNZ): Unredacted document reveals mega polytechnic Te Pūkenga requested $330m from government
Marty Sharpe (Stuff): Early Childhood Council to sue the Government over ‘discrimination’
Anna Whyte (Stuff): Teacher strike talks showing progress ‘in a number of areas’, ministry says
Michael Johnston (Stuff): Teachers’ unions aren’t helping our best teachers get the pay they deserve
1News: Q+A: Kiwi academic: Oral exams an alternative in AI era
Kate Nicol-Williams (1News): Chat GPT use being considered by education sector
Gianina Schwanecke (Stuff): Vulnerable Hutt Valley schools to lose ‘critical’ social worker service
LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Tim Murphy (Newsroom): Auckland Council row: Top official hits back
Sapeer Mayron (Stuff): Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown says $145m road cone spend is ‘unjustifiable’
Anne Goulding (Newsroom): It seems as if Wayne Brown doesn’t know what a library is
CO-GOVERNANCE, TREATY OF WAITANGI
Grant Duncan: On the Treaty of Waitangi
Janet Wilson (Stuff): Tackling systemic prejudice will require shrugging off our apathy
Jack Tame (Newstalk ZB): Labour’s handling of co-governance does a disservice to Māori
David Fisher (Herald): Julian Batchelor’s ‘stop co-governance’ rallies: How a property dispute with Māori triggered his campaign (paywalled)
Chris Marriner (Herald): Anti co-governance roadshow: Ōrewa protesters clash with attendees
HEALTH
Nicholas Jones (Herald): Revealed: Hospital wait lists are getting worse – and a fix could be three years away (paywalled)
Michael Hundleby (Stuff): Health focus must shift from plans to action to address surgery wait times
Phil Pennington (RNZ): Mental health building projects face soaring costs, delays – review
Andrea Vance (Stuff): The very long road to regulate alternative medicines
Ian Powell: Reducing health inequity
Mike Munro (Herald): Health system has its problems – but staff are pure gold (paywalled)
Stephen Forbes (Local Democracy Reporting): 7 out of 10 adults in Counties Manukau overweight or obese – report
1News: Programmes underway to naturalise foreign-trained doctors
DENTAL CARE
1News: 72% of Kiwis putting off dental care due to cost – poll
RNZ: Online petition launched for government to provide free dental care for all
HOUSING
Miriam Bell (Stuff): Cheatsheet: Is there a ‘war’ on landlords?
Carmen Hall (Bay of Plenty Times): Rental ‘war’: Government under fire over leasing perks for landlords (paywalled)
