Analysis by Dr Bryce Edwards.
Political Roundup: NZ needs to distance itself from Australia’s anti-China nuclear submarines
The New Zealand Government has been silent about Australia’s decision to commit up to $400bn acquiring nuclear submarines, even though this is a significant threat to peace and stability in the Asia Pacific. The deal was struck by the Albanese Labor Government as part of its Aukus pact with the US and UK to combat China.
The debate over the incredibly expensive and provocative nuclear-powered attack submarine fleet is raging in Australia, where former prime minister Paul Keating has labelled it the country’s worst decision in over a hundred years, especially because of the huge risks it poses to Australia and peace in the region.
Here in New Zealand, reaction and debate has been rather muted, despite the fact that the issue has huge consequences for this country and will inevitably lead to some very tough choices for the Government here.
Former NZ PMs join the debate to condemn Aukus
Debate on what Aukus means for New Zealand is finally getting underway this week, with some interesting contributions yesterday from two former prime ministers.
First, former National prime minister Jim Bolger participated in a forum about New Zealand’s foreign policy in Wellington in which he is reported by the Herald’s Audrey Young to have criticised the Australian submarine buy up as “beyond comprehension” because of the cost and the damage to peace in the Pacific region.
Bolger said that New Zealand certainly doesn’t want any such submarines, and challenged proponents of the Aukus deal to defend it: “If you can find any Australian official who can explain why they need nuclear-powered submarines, come and tell me. I’d like to know.” And Young reported Bolger asking rhetorically, “How mad are we getting?” She says that “He spoke with despair about the near-daily threats of nuclear war which had the potential to destroy the planet.”
Following this, former Labour prime minister Helen Clark also came out strongly against the increasing militarisation of the Pacific by New Zealand’s allies. She tweeted yesterday that “New Zealand interests do not lie in being associated with Aukus”, and that such an “Association would be damaging to independent foreign policy.”
Clark has also lent her weight to those in the Pacific who are arguing that the Australian deal has been done behind the backs of the Pacific countries, which is bad for the stability of the region. There is a sense that Australia has betrayed its neighbours in unilaterally starting a new defence alliance that will inevitably lead to an arms race in the Asia Pacific.
Opposition from National and commentators
The National Party is much more critical of the Aukus deal than Labour. National’s foreign affairs spokesperson Gerry Brownlee has been strongly critical, saying the deal is bad for New Zealand’s security.
Asked by a journalist if the submarine pact will make New Zealand safer, Brownlee, who was a Minister of Defence in the last National Government, replied: “No, I don’t think it does”. He also criticised the way that Western countries are currently painting China as “the enemy”, saying “I’m not sure that’s the right sort of thinking” and “What I don’t like is the concept that we just seem to be dividing the world”.
Brownlee has also criticised Australia’s decision because it will create problems working with New Zealand, especially because of the nuclear elements of the new submarines. Such submarines will be barred from New Zealand waters.
National’s criticisms of the Australian submarine policy won’t go down well with many other politicians. Already New Zealand First leader Winston Peters has condemned the notion that Aukus will make New Zealand less safe, saying yesterday “That is an astonishing statement to make”, and he called for more military spending here.
Although the Green Party have been conspicuously silent on the huge new military development, former Green MP Gareth Hughes wrote this week on the submarine deal saying that nuclear war was now “terrifyingly possible in the next few years”, and New Zealand is likely to be dragged into any conflict between Australia and China because this country is signed up to a treaty that imposes an obligation to do so if Australia is attacked.
Hughes is astonished that New Zealand isn’t debating what is going on, and troubled by the fact that the current Government is pushing us more into alignment with Washington: “New Zealanders need to talk more about the risks, our decision-makers need to explain why New Zealand is aligning more closely with the United States military and as a sovereign country we have to ask are we acting independently or as a cog in a machine?”
Leftwing commentator Josie Pagani has also come out today against the Aukus deal: “The agreement is unnecessarily provocative to China, possibly foolhardy in its nuclear proliferation. It is not clear what Australia achieves by positioning nuclear submarines in the South China Sea, a long way from home.”
Also today, former United Future party leader Peter Dunne has penned a column calling for more debate on what Aukus will mean for New Zealand and the Asia Pacific. He argues that the way Aukus has been developed gives “the clear impression that Aukus is more a vehicle to reassert US influence in the region than a genuine multilateral security pact.” Dunne says that Prime Minister Chris Hipkins can’t continue to paint the issue as one that doesn’t involve New Zealand or require a reaction.
Questions over New Zealand’s independent foreign policy
Political scientist Nicholas Khoo, of the University of Otago, argues this week that the New Zealand government has been deliberately opaque in its reaction to the Aukus developments, saying Labour is “hedging” on the issue with its response of “ambiguity”. He points out that when the Aukus deal was first announced the then prime minister Jacinda Ardern was careful to welcome it and express her pleasure about the investment, and only citing New Zealand’s ban on nuclear vessels as a problem for the deal.
But he says that as the submarine alliance develops there it will make such equivocal stances less possible for New Zealand, and New Zealand’s independent foreign policy will become harder to maintain. In particular, there will be pressure on New Zealand to respond positively to the development.
The Labour Government has already purchased new sub-hunting P8-Poseidon aircraft. These will be expected to work closely with the Australian submarine fleet to hunt Chinese subs. And in doing so, New Zealand will not only be painting a military target on its back in working with Australia, but it will be alienating itself from our biggest trade partner, China.
The tightrope act of staying onside with both Washington and Beijing will get more difficult. Of course, this week the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nanaia Manuta, has travelled to Beijing. It’s partly a symbol of New Zealand’s increasingly strained relations with China that such a trip hasn’t occurred for four years. But she will be trying to mend fences.
At the same time, however, the United States Government sent their “Indo-Pacific czar” Kurt Campbell to Wellington, who spoke out publicly about being in “deep discussion” with the Government about increasing NZ-US defence arrangements, including how New Zealand could become involved in Aukus. In terms of this, he said: “We will be announcing soon that we want to launch a bilateral engagement between the United States and New Zealand on technology”.
After talking to the New Zealand Government, Campbell also claimed “We agreed that we would launch the critical components of Aukus, and then take steps to look at other partners” like New Zealand.
Security choices for New Zealand
Aukus developments will eventually require New Zealand to make some choices. As Peter Dunne argues today, New Zealand is likely to be pushed off its high-wire tightrope act between Washington and Beijing: “as the Aukus debate intensifies, New Zealand’s careful, fence-straddling diplomacy of the past two decades will be tested as never before. We cannot afford both our current level of relationship with China and involvement with Aukus. As Aukus develops, China is likely to force us to make clear where we stand.”
At the moment, New Zealand really has three options in terms of Aukus: 1) Attempt to join the broad programme in a supportive and auxiliary way, 2) Keep a distance, and diplomatically stay silent on the developments, or 3) Stand up against the militarisation of the Asia Pacific by condemning the development.
Campbell’s visit to New Zealand clearly shows that the first option is possible. This would amount to New Zealand going along with the new “might is right” doctrine that is building up. But, more likely, New Zealand will continue to try to keep onside with Western allies without fully joining in or opposing the increasing militarisation. But this is unlikely to be sustainable.
The third option of greater independence and neutrality is also possible. The Māori Party has recently put forward a new defence policy that would position New Zealand as neutral – a “Switzerland of the Pacific”. This is an idea that needs more debate.
Some academics are arguing that New Zealand might actually be advantaged by being sidelined and right out of any US-UK-Australia security alliance. For instance, Prof Robert Patman of the University of Otago has argued this week that New Zealand stood to benefit by staying outside of Aukus completely and could “diversify its trade more easily with south-east Asian nations that did not like the tie-up.”
Clearly, a new cold war is quickly developing – and one that could soon be a hot war. This comes exactly 20 years after countries like the US, UK and Australia illegally invaded Iraq, leading to disaster. New Zealand would do well to avoid the same drumbeats to war that we are hearing at the moment.
Further reading on AUKUS, Foreign Affairs
1News: New Zealand better off outside AUKUS – Helen Clark
AAP: New Zealand opposition concerned by AUKUS
Peter Dunne (Newsroom): China will test NZ’s fence-straddling diplomacy as never before
Audrey Young (Herald): Former Prime Minister Jim Bolger denounces Aukus nuclear submarines for Australia (paywalled)
Koroi Hawkins and Caleb Fotheringham (RNZ): Pacific needs to sit up and pay close attention to AUKUS – Dame Meg Taylor
Josie Pagani (Stuff): The fist-pumping of Aukus doesn’t help counter the fist-pumping in Moscow
Thomas Manch (Stuff): Government considering new spying crimes to prosecute foreign agents
Thomas Manch (Stuff): A New Zealand embassy in Kyiv? Former defence minister Ron Mark thinks so
RNZ: MFAT confirms former NZ soldier Kane Te Tai’s death in Ukraine
Jan Kohout (RNZ): Emerging Pacific leaders in NZ for Dawn Raids-initiated scholarship
Other items of interest and importance today
CHILD POVERTY
Michael Neilson, Julia Gabel and Chris Knox (Herald): Cost of living: Child poverty levels hardly improving, still 120,000 in material hardship
RNZ: Child poverty reduction stalls ahead of cost-of-living crisis
Laura Frykberg (1News): Child poverty rates unchanged from previous year – Stats NZ
Bridie Witton (Stuff): Government’s child poverty reduction plan stalls
Michael Neilson (Herald): Child poverty: Campaigners say expanding in-work Family Tax Credit to beneficiaries would have ‘immediate difference’
Bridie Witton (Stuff): Children’s advocates say politicians must focus on child poverty – or stats will get worse
Jamie Ensor and Leighton Heikell (Newshub): Government says no change in child poverty rates ‘encouraging’ considering pressures, but other parties not impressed
Ripu Bhatia (Stuff): Poverty statistics paint ‘rosy picture’ of reality for Māori, academic says
Martyn Bradbury (Daily Blog): Chippy’s ‘Let them eat pie’: Bread and Butter but none for hungry children
COST OF LIVING, ECONOMY
Rob Stock (Stuff): New data on household incomes highlights the gap between the richest and poorest
Gareth Vaughan (Interest): Bill Rosenberg on how to measure household inflation better than the CPI does
Brianna Mcilraith (Stuff): All the changes coming to your wallet to help ease cost of living pressure on April 1
Jenée Tibshraeny (Herald): RBNZ: We need to accept we’re poorer
Dan Brunskill (Interest): New Zealanders need to accept the pandemic made them poorer, the RBNZ says
RNZ: Firms, workers need to lower inflation expectations – RBNZ chief economist
Liz McDonald (Stuff): National promises a return to basic economics to tackle cost of living crisis
Emma Hatton (Newsroom): More ‘how’ less ‘what’ for social services
Liam Dann (Herald): Truckometer: Traffic data shows economic growth in low gear (paywalled)
RNZ: Easing heavy traffic points to flat first quarter for economy
Alka Prasad (Herald): Warehouse profits slump, CEO warns ‘peak misery’ still to come on cost-of-living crisis (paywalled)
LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Heather du Plessis-Allan (Newstalk ZB): Auckland Council booting Local Government NZ is a warning to Kieran McAnulty
Tim Murphy (Newsroom): Auckland pulls a Brexit – on the mayor’s casting vote
Finn Blackwell (RNZ): Auckland Council votes to leave Local Government New Zealand
Todd Niall (Stuff): ‘800 members getting pissed and dancing’: Wayne Brown pulls Auckland Council out of Local Government NZ
Bernard Orsman (Herald): Auckland Council quits Local Government NZ: Mayor Wayne Brown says drinking behaviour as reason for move
Toby Manhire (Spinoff): Wellington mayor decries ‘Auxit’ as Wayne Brown leads Auckland out of local government group
Todd Niall (Stuff): Road cones and bus trials: Fact-checking Auckland mayor Wayne Brown’s big ideas
Corazon Miller (1News): Auckland Council delays debate on $1b rail blowout amid govt talks
RNZ: Chlöe Swarbrick urges super-city MPs to meet over ‘slash-and-burn’ Auckland Council budget
Todd Nial (Stuff): Former chief science advisor to PM wants fix for Auckland’s at-risk Southern Initiative
Erin Johnson (Stuff): Auckland’s flood recovery operation to cost $1m a month
Matthew Scott (Newsroom): Flood-affected Aucklanders breathe a sigh of rates relief
Erin Gourley (Stuff): The slogan that embarrassed a Wellington councillor
Nicholas Boyack (Stuff): Desperately seeking savings, Lower Hutt council plans to close aviary
Emily Ireland (Local Democracy Reporting): South Wairarapa water fails new standards
Rachael Comer (Stuff): Seven senior staff members signed resignation letter to Timaru District
EDUCATION
Luke Malpass (Stuff): Christopher Luxon’s big day back at school makes it really feel like election year
Matthew Hooton (Herald): National’s Christopher Luxon delivers a lesson for Labour with education policy (paywalled)
Martyn Bradbury (Daily Blog): National finally finds an issue in Education – How will they screw it up?
Mark Quinlivan (Newshub): Transport Minister Michael Wood takes savage ‘right-wing hack’ jab at academic over education policy
Russell Palmer (RNZ): Union and Labour criticise National’s new curriculum policy
1News: National’s curriculum rewrite pledge won’t fix issues – NZEI
Amelia Wade (Newshub): National promises to ‘teach the basics brilliantly’, but how has the sector graded its latest policy?
Adam Pearse and Claire Trevett (Herald): National’s education shake-up: Hour a day of reading, writing, maths – Education Minister issues challenge
Russell Palmer (RNZ): National Party leader Christopher Luxon announces education policy
Luke Malpass (Stuff): National Party school policy focuses on daily hourly sessions for maths, reading and writing
John Gerritsen (RNZ): Maniapoto training centre double-claimed government funding for hundreds of students
HEALTH
Ripu Bhatia (Stuff): New Zealand’s ethnic health inequities ‘avoidable, unfair and unjust’, academic says
Robin Martin (RNZ): New dioxin research deserves response, says New Plymouth mayor
Rachel Thomas (Stuff): Doctors make plea to stop advertising of prescription medicines directly to NZers
Jean Edwards (RNZ): Surgery delays leave Christchurch woman on liquid diet for a year – ‘My life is on hold’
Rowan Quinn (RNZ): Only 19 nurses outside of NZ granted fast tracked nurses visa by end of February
Concerns grow at plummeting rates of child immunisation
Lynne Chepulis (Stuff): Pharmac prioritised Māori and Pacific patients for access to new diabetes drugs – did it get it right?
Jacob Johnson (1News): Concerns grow at plummeting rates of child immunisation
Jamie Morton (Herald): Govt injects $70m into research on RNA tech used in Covid-19 vaccine
Toria Tokalau (Stuff): Health providers reach 96% of Pasifika community since Covid-19
Sophie Harris (Stuff): Lack of parking forces woman to cancel Starship appointments for terminally-ill son
Muriwai Hei (Whakaata Māori): Te Aranga Health Clinic bought to offer whanāu cheaper medical care
Dylan Cleaver (Spinoff): Inside the years-long fight to have a former All Black’s CTE recognised by ACC
POSIE PARKER
Thomas Cranmer: Free speech or transphobia? Kellie-Jay Keen’s visit to New Zealand sparks tensions
Rachel Smalley (Today FM): No one has the right to stop women from speaking
Katie Scotcher (RNZ): Rainbow groups take Immigration Minister to court over Posie Parker decision
Tom Hunt (Stuff): Human rights groups seek interim order to stop Posie Parker coming to NZ
Damien Venuto (Herald): Posie Parker: Did Immigration NZ get her decision right? – The Front Page
1News: Posie Parker’s entry to NZ encourages hatred – activist
Kate Hawkesby (Newstalk ZB): Posie Parker should never have been given all this attention in the first place
Mike Hosking (Newstalk ZB): Not liking what someone says isn’t a reason to ban them
Lloyd Burr (Today FM): Desperate trolls scrape the bottom of the barrel
Tova O’Brien (Today FM): Posie Parker is coming. Take a stand. We all have to.
Dita De Boni (NBR): Posie Parker: Can business be part of the pushback? (paywalled)
Rachel Smalley (NBR): Do corporates have a role in the ‘Posie Parker’ conversation? (paywalled)
PARLIAMENT, CO-GOVERNANCE
Chris Trotter (Daily Blog): All of Us, All of Us
Waatea News: Co-governance proven success in right places says PM
Chelsea Daniels (Herald): Anti-co-governance group finding it difficult to book venues
Brent Edwards (NBR): The three Rs, Posie Parker, the police, climate change
Joseph Los’e (Herald): Te Pāti Māori push for Aotearoa name change gains momentum but lacks political support
Michael Fallow (Stuff): Prestigious Ardern portrait an arresting sight in National heartland
HOUSING
Laura Smith (Local Democracy Reporting): Rotorua emergency housing motels: Government-commissioned report finds residents had positive experience
Kelvin McDonald (Whakaata Māori): ‘They don’t have to buy the land’: Ngāti Potiki’s leasehold plan for whānau home ownership in Pāpāmoa
Andrew McRae (RNZ): Hapuu challenges council plan for housing on possible paa site
EMPLOYMENT
Dita De Boni (NBR): Vexed employee-contractor issue thrown on policy bonfire (paywalled)
Rebecca Rendle (NBR): Policy bonfire leaves burning questions for gig economy (paywalled)
Catherine Hubbard (Stuff): It took this young woman seven years to find a job
Peter Griffin (Listener/Herald): Good luck getting Kiwi employees to give up on remote work (paywalled)
BUSINESS
Matt Raskovic (Stuff): Banks are making a killing because they don’t have skin in the game
Jonathan Milne (Newsroom): Warring building supplies firms tie up critical NZ land with 999-year covenants
Rebecca Stevenson (Interest): Carter Holt Harvey axes land covenants including some set for 999 years
RNZ: Amazon group’s web services signs cooperation deal with New Zealand government
CYCLONE GABRIELLE
Niva Chittock (RNZ): No health officials present at community meeting over contamination at Awatoto industrial zone
Gareth Vaughan (Interest): Cyclone Gabrielle insurance claims top 40k, worth about $890m, ICNZ says
RNZ: Cyclone Gabrielle: Insurance claims hit $890 million
Marcus Musson (Stuff): Pinning blame for slash solely on forestry sector a modern-day witch-hunt
CLIMATE CHANGE, RMA, ENVIRONMENT
Dan Brunskill (Interest): Government review of the Emissions Trading Scheme will look for ways to incentivise more reductions and less carbon offsets
Ian Llewellyn (BusinessDesk): Mixed feelings on Emissions Trading Scheme review (paywalled)
Ian Llewellyn (BusinessDesk): Fear of ETS failure spurs review (paywalled)
No Right Turn: Climate Change: More Labour sabotage
Richard Harman (Politik): Select Committee told slow down; you’re moving too fast (paywalled)
Brent Edwards (NBR): RMA reform uncertain: Chris Bishop (paywalled)
Lianne Dalziel (Newsroom): New Orleans’ lesson on fallible flood defences: Let’s not ‘build back better’
David Williams (Newsroom): How the Rakaia turned into a pipe for irrigators
TRANSPORT
Tom Hunt (Dominion Post): Let’s Get Wellington Moving consultant costs climb past $130 million
Jonathan Mitchell (NBR): Nats say Govt’s EV charging strategy ‘rushed’ and ‘uncosted’ (paywalled)
OTHER
Thomas Manch (Stuff): New Police Minister Ginny Andersen wants to take political ‘heat’ out of law and order
Greg Hurrell (BusinessDesk): Sir Peter Gluckman: Science reforms a ‘missed opportunity’ (paywalled)
Lynley Ward (Herald): Not guilty plea: Former broadcaster-turned-conspiracy campaigner Liz Gunn defends airport charges
