Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Bean, Research Fellow, The University of Queensland

In recent weeks I managed to decrypt a difficult cipher that, despite expert codebreakers’ best efforts, had remained unsolved for 70 years.

The code was created by the late Cambridge professor and scientist Robert Henry Thouless, who passed away in 1984. He created it as a “test of survival” to see if he could communicate with the living after his death. Thouless thought if he successfully transmitted cipher keywords to the living through spiritual mediums and the message was received, this would prove he had survived his death.

In 2019, I was more interested in seeing whether computer speed, storage and networking capabilities had advanced enough to break a code that had outlived its maker. After about five days I had my answer.

The cipher text read:

INXPH CJKGM JIRPR FBCVY WYWES NOECN SCVHE GYRJQ TEBJM TGXAT TWPNH CNYBC FNXPF LFXRV QWQL

The solution:

A number of successful experiments of this kind would give strong evidence for survival.

In the name of Psi-ence

In 1882, the Society for Psychical Research was founded in the UK. Its purpose was to study spiritualism, the paranormal, psychic powers and the possibility of life after death. During World War II Thouless became one of its many famous presidents – a list that also included Britain’s future prime minister Arthur Balfour and radio pioneer Sir Oliver Lodge.

In the course of his academic work at Cambridge, Thouless devised experiments to test claimants for evidence of “psi” – a term he introduced in his 1942 paper “Experiments on Paranormal Guessing”. The word was used to describe all phenomena of “telepathy”, “clairvoyance”, “precognitinion” or “extrasensory perception” that could be tested or described.

Read more: Cicada 3301: the mystery keeping cryptologists awake at night

He considered different ways to create an experiment which could test for survival after death. One test involved an object or message to be sealed in a package so after the author’s death mediums could attempt to describe what was inside. A disadvantage here was that the package could only be opened once to check an answer. So in his seminal paper “A Test of Survival”, Thouless turned to cryptography as a source of experiments.

He published two ciphers in this paper, which he called Passages. Passage II used a book cipher – a code in which the key comes from some aspect of a book or another text.

Cracking Passage II

In August 2019, I produced a table of English letter frequencies in a successful attempt to break an unsolved cipher of the Irish Republican Army, presented in a 2008 book co-authored by California computer scientist James J. Gillogly.

I used the books of Project Gutenberg – a large collection of books scanned or typed by volunteers as the input texts. I wrote a program to check all 37,000 of the English books, using my table of letter frequencies to then score the output text for a solution to Passage II.

After a few days, I found the source book was “The Hound of Heaven” by Francis Thompson, entered into Project Gutenberg in July 1998. This is a most appropriate text to reflect Thouless’ religious beliefs, as it is a famous Christian poem.

Read more: Lost treasures and how to find them

The lesson from this discovery is that book ciphers can still be a very secure way of encrypting text if the key text can be kept secret, as the only method of solution is to exhaustively test all texts. The most famous example of a book cipher is the Beale ciphers of 1885, which purport to describe the location of hidden treasure in the United States.

In the current age of Project Gutenberg and networked computer systems, Passage II could not have remained unsolved for long.

A poetic approach to code

Thouless’s Passage I used the well-known Playfair cipher which was quickly solved after being made. The keyword was “SURPRISE”, with the plain text coming from Shakespeare’s Macbeth. Solving this was an impressive feat of cryptanalysis in the pre-computer age, and neither the solver nor the method used is known.

In 1949 Thouless produced Passage III using a double Playfair technique with two English keywords instead of one. Gillogly solved it in 1995, publishing an article in “Cryptologia” with Larry Harnisch. The keywords were “Black Beauty” from the 1877 Anna Sewell novel. Naturally, Gillogly tried the text of Black Beauty as the source book for Passage II, without success.

Commenting on Gillogly’s 1995 solution, a Society for Psychical Research spokesperson said: “When Thouless devised the test in the late 1940s he could hardly have foreseen the future power of computers.”

Read more: Will superfast ‘quantum’ computers mean the end of unbreakable encryption?

Due to the growth in computer speed, storage and networking capability, breaking Passage II became feasible. In the present day, quantum computing threatens to make many current encryption algorithms obsolete.

Any future similar tests of “survival” will require the use of some kind of encryption algorithm that is immune to technological advances. As was the case with Thouless, whoever devises such a test will have to take into account that computer power in the future may make the science fiction of today a reality.

– ref. Cryptology from the crypt: how I cracked a 70-year-old coded message from beyond the grave – http://theconversation.com/cryptology-from-the-crypt-how-i-cracked-a-70-year-old-coded-message-from-beyond-the-grave-122465

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The Morrison government’s draft religious discrimination legislation, unveiled by Attorney-General Christian Porter at Sydney’s Great Synagogue on Thursday, imposes heavier obligations on large companies than those on other businesses.

Big companies – those with revenue of at least $50 million – would face tougher rules in relation to indirect discrimination relating to “dress, appearance or behaviour which limit religious expression”.

Where a large company imposed such conditions it would have to prove that compliance with the condition was necessary “to avoid unjustifiable financial hardship to the business”.

“If the business is unable to demonstrate that the condition is necessary to avoid unjustifiable financial hardship, the condition is not reasonable, and is therefore discriminatory, whether or not it would otherwise be unreasonable under the general reasonableness test,” the explanation of the legislation says.

Read more: Why the Israel Folau case could set an important precedent for employment law and religious freedom

Overall, the legislation is limited, giving “shield” protection rather than a “positive right to religious protection”. Some critics in the churches and on the Coalition backbench have said it should go further.

Porter rejected their case, saying that in consultations he had had “it appeared people had not thought through the positive rights approach — including those in church groups who were calling for it”.

In relation to the issue of rugby star Israel Folau, dismissed by Rugby Australia after a social media post, based on the Bible, saying homosexuals would go to hell, Porter said that “for a large employer a rule that has the effect of restricting someone from making a statement of religious belief outside work is not to be considered reasonable unless it can be first shown that the rule was necessary to avoid unjustifiable financial hardship to the employer.

Obviously this is meant to deal with the trend of large employers setting general non communication rules that may unreasonably limit free religious expression in an employee’s own time.

A large organisation in Rugby Australia’s position might argue its restrictive rule was necessary to protect its ‘brand’ and so avoid unjustifiable corporate hardship – and was reasonable in all the circumstances.

Someone in Mr Folau’s position would likely argue the opposite but this provision offers a procedure to engage that protection. Importantly, no statement of belief in this context is reasonable if it is malicious or if it harasses, vilifies, incites hatred or violence or advocates for the commission of a serious criminal offence.

Read more: Explainer: does Rugby Australia have legal grounds to sack Israel Folau for anti-gay social media posts?

The legislation is designed to protect against both direct and indirect and indirect discrimination.

Direct discrimination is where a person is treated less favourably because of their religious beliefs or activity.

Indirect discrimination is “where an apparently neutral condition has the effect of disadvantaging people of a particular religious belief”, such as an employer requiring all workers to attend Friday afternoon meetings, which could disadvantage Jewish workers who leave early to observe the Sabbath.

Complaints could be made to the Human Rights Commission. Where a complaint could not be conciliated, a person could resort to the federal court.

The draft legislation will be out for consultation in coming weeks, with the aim of a final draft going to parliament in October.

– ref. Religious Discrimination legislation would hit big companies harder than small business – http://theconversation.com/religious-discrimination-legislation-would-hit-big-companies-harder-than-small-business-122623

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Masafumi Monden, Lecturer in Japanese Studies, University of Western Australia

The western world’s dance community rallied over the weekend, taking Good Morning America host Lara Spencer to task for her mockery of Prince George and his love of ballet. Under the hashtag #boysdancetoo, representatives of the dance world including Gene Kelly’s widow Patricia Ward, Fame’s Debbie Allen and So You Think You Can Dance US winner Travis Wall, as well as dance parents and students worldwide, hit back.

They told tales of bullying and the triumph of passion over adversity. An on-air apology and 300-strong dance class followed.

Gender biases and prejudices about “ballet boys” are not a new story – author Clementine Ford, wrote last year about a two-year-old Australian boy whose dance school had forbidden him to wear a tutu and make-up for the end-of-year concert. But as the issue flares again, we could look to Japan – where male dancers receive widespread acclaim for their beauty and discipline.

Beyond butch

In Australia, the inclusion and acceptance of boys and men in ballet and dance is often predicated on an argument that dance for boys can be macho – either by comparisons to sport or discussions of strength.

Last year, the Australian Ballet’s Spartacus was framed in this vein. The production’s tagline “Think ballet is all pointe shoes and tutus? Think again” seemed to assume that the only way to appeal to a male audience was by emphasising the violent and aggressive aspects of the ballet.

However noble the intent might be to encourage more boys into ballet by attempting to butch it up, many boys whose identity might not align strongly with this macho image end up excluded.

In addition, many of the things that attract both boys and girls to ballet – the costumes, make-up, sets, beauty and artistry – are pushed aside in order to emphasise a stereotypically acceptable masculine image. Such attempts can be seen as the flipside of the same coin as Spencer’s shaming, reinforcing stereotypes and narrowing the options for aspiring male dancers.

Japan’s dance heroes

There are lessons that can be learned from the way that Japanese culture accepts and embraces male ballet dancing, without needing to rely solely on narrow views of masculinity.

In Japan, the media elevates male ballet stars (and their sporty cousins: male figure skaters) as role models.

Television coverage, competitions and magazines foster a culture and community that’s supportive of boys in dance. Tetsuya Kumakawa has been feted as not only “the greatest ever Japanese ballet dancer” but “one of the best the world has ever seen”.

When the British Royal Ballet toured Japan, Principal dancer Steven McRae was given a manga makeover by artist Takafumi Adachi in the magazine Dancin’, a ballet periodical for boys and young men. The success of male and female dancers at ballet companies outside Japan is equally celebrated.

Teenage ballet dancer Haruo Niyama made headlines across Japanese news programs when he won the prestigious Prix de Lausanne international ballet competition in 2014, scoring him an invitation to visit Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and a photo opportunity.

Of course Japanese culture does display prejudices against boys and men who enjoy activities which historically have run along traditional gender lines. But mainstream Japanese media has an ability and willingness to generate a positive representations of boys and men engaged in such activities.

Ballet is beauty

The masculine framing of ballet can be effective in encouraging boys to learn the discipline. But other factors – the concept of beauty that ballet carries, iconic role models, a space to share with other boys who also love to dance – are just as important.

The increasing attention paid to male ballet (and other kinds of dance) in Japan has gone hand in hand with emerging young men who achieve international fame in these fields. This has increased the visibility and impact of ballet within wider boys’ and men’s culture.

The #boysdancetoo moment echoes Japan’s positive portrayal of boys engaging in ballet in more nuanced ways than merely emphasising its sporty and muscled aspects.

Such representations in mainstream media can offer a sense of belonging and mutual support for a still-fragmented and isolated coterie of ballet boys and men. It can create a community where they can safely connect and identify with those who share their interest in, dreams of and love for dancing.

– ref. Boys dance too – and in Japan they are celebrated – http://theconversation.com/boys-dance-too-and-in-japan-they-are-celebrated-122533

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anne Twomey, Professor of Constitutional Law, University of Sydney

Boris Johnson has secured the prorogation of the British parliament, which means it will be prevented from sitting for much of the crucial period between now and the Brexit date of October 31.

So what options do those opposed to a no-deal Brexit now have in parliament to prevent it?

A cunningly placed and timed prorogation

If a majority of the House of Commons were opposed to a no-deal Brexit, two primary routes are open to it. One would be the enactment of legislation requiring the government to seek a further deferral of the Brexit date until after some circuit-breaking event could be held, such as a new referendum or general election. The other would be a vote of no-confidence in the government and an early general election.

Both would be extremely difficult to achieve within the now very tight parliamentary timeframes – which presumably was the point. This prorogation is cunningly timed and placed. The fact that parliament has not been prorogued for the entire period leading up to the Brexit date makes it harder to argue in the courts that the prorogation is unconstitutional.

Read more: Boris Johnson, ‘political Vegemite’, becomes the UK prime minister. Let the games begin

The fact that Johnson gave prorogation advice to the queen before a court could decide on whether to issue an injunction to prevent the giving of such advice (with a hearing on the matter having been scheduled for September 6) also potentially stymies the use of the courts to prevent prorogation. This is because the main avenue for legal attack is in relation to the giving of the advice by ministers, rather than the action of the queen in giving effect to that advice. The latter would normally be regarded as “non-justiciable” – outside the appropriate exercise of judicial power.

In addition, slicing up the sitting period with prorogation in the middle, from September 10 to October 13, means it is now likely there is too little time to achieve all the procedural steps necessary to pass legislation or the resolutions necessary to secure a change in government.

This is exacerbated by the fact that the government largely controls the order of proceedings in the House of Commons and prorogation effectively wipes the parliamentary slate clean of any uncompleted action. Any partially completed action would have to start again once parliament resumes.

Confidence, fixed-term parliaments and an election

One alternative that has previously been raised is a vote of no confidence in the government and an early election. The UK has fixed five-year terms for its parliament. But an early election can be held if a two-thirds majority of the House of Commons votes for it, or if there is a vote of no confidence in the government and after 14 days there has been no vote of confidence in the government.

In either case, the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 states that the election is to be held on a day appointed by the queen on the recommendation of the prime minister.

A senior government source reportedly told The Guardian:

We have been very clear that if there’s a no-confidence vote, [the prime minister] won’t resign. We get to set an election date. We don’t want an election, but if we have to set a date, it’s going to be after 31 October.

What could be done to avoid that outcome?

The House of Commons could instead act to force the resignation of the prime minister, secure the appointment of a caretaker prime minister, bring about an early election and authorise the new prime minister to seek to defer Brexit until after the election was held so the people could make the ultimate decision on Brexit.

The Fixed-term Parliaments Act deals solely with issues of confidence in relation to the holding of an early election. It provides that only a resolution “that this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government” can cause an early election. It does not deal with other expressions of no confidence in the government.

As the then clerk of the House of Commons advised the House of Commons Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee in 2018, the House could pass a “no confidence motion in other terms than those in the Act”, including no confidence in a specific minister.

This would have a “massive political effect but [would] not trigger the terms of the Act”.

So if, for example, the house expressed no confidence in Boris Johnson to hold the office of prime minister, he would be forced, by convention, to resign.

In addition to passing a vote of no confidence in a prime minister, the house may pass a “constructive motion of confidence”, which states that it has confidence in someone else to form a government.

This may be a compromise candidate who is trusted by both sides to run a caretaker government, which makes no significant policy decisions or appointments but simply undertakes necessary ordinary business until an election is held.

The formation of a caretaker government is consistent with British parliamentary practice. Winston Churchill formed one and popularised the “caretaker” term in 1945.

When a prime minister resigns, he or she might give advice to the queen as to whom to appoint as his or her successor. But the queen is not bound by this advice, as the outgoing prime minister ceases to be responsible to parliament for it.

Instead, the queen is obliged to appoint as prime minister the person most likely to hold the confidence of the House of Commons. If the House of Commons has declared, by resolution, who this person is, then the queen has clear evidence, so her appointment of that person cannot be questioned.

The next consideration is that a caretaker prime minister is by convention constrained in undertaking significant acts. If parliament wanted the prime minister to renegotiate the Brexit date so the people could decide on Brexit as a key policy in a general election, it would be prudent for a parliamentary resolution to authorise this action.

Read more: What’s the deal (or no-deal) with Brexit? Here’s everything explained

Finally, in the United Kingdom it has historically been the case that fundamental constitutional change has been put to the people in a general election. An example is the equally divisive debate over Home Rule for Ireland and the limitation of the powers of the House of Lords.

This means the House of Commons would need to pass a formal resolution that “this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government”, referring to the government established by the new prime minister. This would allow an early election to be held.

In addition, to ensure the caretaker government was for the shortest possible time, the house could resolve that the prime minister should set a particular date for that election.

A series of resolutions could achieve this, but it would require a united front from those opposed to a no-deal Brexit and clever parliamentary tactics to achieve it within the very limited sitting time available.

It may prove that prorogation was the masterstroke to prevent this from occurring.

– ref. Boris Johnson has suspended the UK parliament. What does this mean for Brexit? – http://theconversation.com/boris-johnson-has-suspended-the-uk-parliament-what-does-this-mean-for-brexit-122615

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Evelyn Volders, Senior Lecturer/Course Convenor in Nutrition and Dietetics, Monash University

If you’re a new mum, it’s likely you’ve come across lactation cookies. Perhaps women in your mothers group are talking about them, or they’ve popped up in your Instagram feed, or you’ve seen them on the shelves while out shopping for your little one.

Breastfeeding mothers almost all question their milk supply at one time or another, and will naturally look for solutions to ensure their milk flow is meeting baby’s needs.

Lactation cookies, or biscuits, aren’t going to do women any harm. But there’s no evidence they can promote milk flow, either.

So if you’re really concerned about your milk supply, it’s best to see a professional who will be able to assess whether there’s a problem and recommend evidence-based solutions.

Read more: Domperidone can boost breast milk supply – here’s what you need know

Galactogogues

Galactogogues is the word used to describe foods or drugs that promote or increase the flow of a mother’s breast milk.

There’s an ever expanding range of galactagogues available. Many are herbal products (like milk thistle, goats rue, and fenugreek), special foods (like cookies) or medications (such as domperidone and metoclopramide).

Studies have established these medications, particularly domperidone, are effective. They work by increasing levels of prolactin, the hormone that helps with milk production.

But very little evidence exists to support specific foods to increase milk supply.

From traditional to commercial

Various cultures encourage breastfeeding women to eat special foods to support them during lactation. This has led to the development in Western societies of “lactation cookies”.

Some companies make these commercially and sell them either online or in stores. They cost in the range of A$2 to A$3 per biscuit. There are also a myriad of recipes available online to bake at home.

Lactation cookies have common ingredients such as oats, flaxseed and brewer’s yeast. It’s not clear why these ingredients are believed to stimulate milk flow.

Anecdotal success stories can be found on online forums. Mothers post about the volumes of milk they can express before and after eating the cookies, and so on.

But scientific evidence suggesting these ingredients are effective in increasing milk supply is lacking.

Read more: Want to breastfeed? These five things will make it easier

Studies of this nature would actually be difficult to run. To see a true effect, scientists would need to follow a large number of lactating women and not only control their diets, but measure the amount of breast milk they expressed over a period. Determining the most effective dose of the cookies would also need to be trialled.

They won’t do any harm

Lactation cookies are safe to eat and won’t harm the baby. That being said, they do contribute energy (calories/kilojoules), so in excess may be a problem.

But women who are lactating have increased energy needs at this time anyway. So as long as the biscuits aren’t substituting for a healthy range of foods, they can be included.

Using biscuits like this might give some women a confidence boost that could assist in stressing less, and helping to increase milk production in that way. A small study looking at the use of herbal supplements in breastfeeding identified confidence was an important reason for using these products. And we know for mothers, confidence in their ability to breastfeed successfully can play a role in duration and success of breastfeeding.

If you’re worried, see a professional

Jumping in too early with galactagogues might send the message to mothers they are not able to produce enough milk to feed their baby. But we know most women are able to do this.

The simplest way to produce more milk is to feed more often, as the body responds to increased feeding by increasing prolactin and hence milk production.

For women who are concerned about low milk supply, relying only on lactation biscuits is not sensible. These women should consult a health professional such as a GP or lactation consultant who will provide appropriate support to optimise breastfeeding.

Read more: Health Check: what should breastfeeding women eat?

– ref. No, there’s no evidence cookies can help with lactation – http://theconversation.com/no-theres-no-evidence-cookies-can-help-with-lactation-118051

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Donald R. Rothwell, Professor, ANU College of Law, Australian National University

The arrest of Chinese-Australian writer Yang Hengjun on suspicion of espionage in China has significant consequences for both Yang and Australia.

This is especially the case if China asserts Yang was spying for Australia. Espionage is a capital crime in China, and if convicted of such a charge, Yang would face the death penalty.

Australia remains resolutely opposed to the death penalty and has previously devoted considerable diplomatic and political efforts to protect Australians facing execution. In combination, these factors have the potential to affect Australian-Chinese relations for years to come.

Read more: Yang Hengjun appeals to Scott Morrison in message issued by supporters

Yang arrived in China in January direct from the US, but was quickly detained and has been held for questioning ever since. Australian consular access has been granted, most recently on Tuesday. However, Foreign Minister Marise Payne has expressed concerns over his welfare and the conditions of his detention.

Payne has also made clear that Yang was not spying on behalf of Australia, and has called for him to be treated in accordance with international human rights law.

Has Australian pressure worked in the past?

The next steps will be for Yang to be formally charged, after which he will be subject to trial. Given the length of his detention so far and that he has now been formally arrested, Chinese prosecutors should be able to confirm the criminal charges against Yang without delay.

Consistent with Chinese criminal practice, his trial could be expected to take place relatively soon. And his legal prospects appear grim. Chinese courts have historically had conviction rates more than 99% in criminal cases.

The Yang case has some parallels with that of the Rio Tinto executive Stern Hu, a Chinese-born Australian citizen, who was arrested in Shanghai in July 2009 on bribery and acquisition of commercial secrets charges.

Read more: Foreign Minister Marise Payne says Yang Hengjun is not Australian spy

Hu was eventually convicted following a short trial in March 2010. He was released in July 2018 after serving nine years in prison.

After his arrest, Australia sought to assert its rights under the terms of the 1999 Consular Relations Agreement between Australia and China, a treaty that supplements the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations and provides clarity regarding the provision of consular access to detained nationals.

China did grant Australia consular access to Hu in prison, but Australian officials were prevented from attending part of his trial, which was closed.

That case created a headache for the Rudd government. Then-Foreign Minister Stephen Smith was actively engaged in seeking to ensure that Hu’s rights as an Australian citizen were upheld, but had little success.

Yang’s rights under treaties and international law

What, then, is the international legal framework for Australia to make representations on Yang’s behalf?

As Yang is a citizen, Australia is entitled to receive notifications from China within three days of arrest, custody pending trial or any form of detention. These requirements of the Consular Relations Agreement appear to have been met so far.

Likewise, Article 11 of the agreement provides for monthly consular access, which would allow Australian officials to communicate with Yang and arrange for his legal representation.

Read more: Yang Hengjun case a pivotal moment in increasingly tense Australia-China relationship

Again, it would appear that this has been complied with. Though Yang has been detained in secret for seven months without access to his family, he has been visited by consular staff seven times. Yang has also been able to retain lawyers in China and also in Australia, but his lawyers have yet been able to actually communicate with him.

Importantly, the Consular Relations Agreement makes clear in Article 5 that consular functions include

protecting and securing the rights and interests … of its nationals within the limits permitted by international law.

It is therefore significant that Payne has in recent days directly referred to Australia’s expectations that Yang’s ongoing detention be conducted in accordance with international law.

In this respect, the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights recognises a series of basic standards that apply to detained persons under arrest, including that they not be subject to torture, or cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment. The declaration also recognises that the accused has the right to a fair and public hearing once a matter goes to trial and the right to legal representation.

While China is subject to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, as part of customary international law, it has not accepted many of the core UN human rights treaties, including the 1966 International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. This treaty provides fundamental guarantees for a fair trial and limits the application of the death penalty.

Nevertheless, both Australia and China are parties to the 1984 Convention Against Torture. As such, there is a clear legal basis for Australia to express its concerns over the conditions in which Yang has been held to date, which reportedly have included constant exposure to bright light.

Why China is unlikely to back down

The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to Payne’s comments by stating

Australia should respect China’s judicial sovereignty and not interfere in any way in China’s lawful handling of the case.

This statement gives a hint to one of the fundamental legal difficulties Australia will confront in Yang’s case.

Yang was born in China and at one time served as a Chinese diplomat. China has strict laws that make it very difficult to renounce Chinese citizenship. Even if a citizen acquires another nationality, as Yang has with Australia, China will often not accord full entitlements to the other state of nationality.

Read more: Why ‘Democracy peddler’ Yang Hengjun has been detained in China and why he must be released

Because Yang has been accused of spying, which under the laws of any country goes to the heart of state security and sovereignty, this will only further harden China’s position. This explains why Australia has used such forceful language regarding the Yang case and has quickly moved from quiet diplomacy between foreign ministers to public statements.

Australia appears ready for a tough diplomatic battle with China over this matter. But with the bilateral relationship at such a delicate point, there will be a desire in Canberra to place a silo around this exceptionally challenging consular case so that it does not impact Australia’s economic ties with China.

However, given the espionage allegations and potential for the death penalty to be applied, this will prove to be particularly difficult.

– ref. Yang Hengjun’s legal prospects in China appear grim, despite Australia’s forceful defences – http://theconversation.com/yang-hengjuns-legal-prospects-in-china-appear-grim-despite-australias-forceful-defences-122546

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy Crouch, Experimental Aerodynamicist, Monash University

British cyclist Neil Campbell recently set a new record for the men’s “fastest bicycle in a slipstream”, clocking up a breathtaking 280km per hour.

This record involves bringing a cyclist up to speed in the wake of a towing vehicle, then releasing the bike and timing the rider over a 200m distance. The overall record stands at 296km per hour, set in September 2018 by Denise Mueller-Korenek, who was towed by a dragster on Utah’s Bonneville Salt Flats.

But just how much can these high cycling speeds can be attributed to human performance? Does it take a supreme athlete to maintain that speed after release, or is the vehicle really doing all the hard work? And if so, does that mean even faster records are possible?

Read more: Yes, there is a limit to athletic ability – physics

By considering the energy supply and demand involved in Campbell’s new men’s record, we can begin to appreciate the relative contributions from human and machine. For this record, energy comes from both the car’s fuel combustion and from human power.

The power required to maintain a given speed depends on the resistive force acting against the rider’s forward motion. On a flat course at a constant speed, there are two key components:

• aerodynamic resistance, also known as aerodynamic drag
• rolling resistance, which broadly covers the friction between wheels and road, the friction in the wheel bearings, and the efficiency of power transmission from the pedals through the chain to the wheels.

Crucially, aerodynamic resistance increases with the square of air speed, which means it increases very rapidly as the speed increases. Rolling resistance, meanwhile, increases linearly with speed, which means it increases much less rapidly as speed rises.

Benjamin Thiele, lead systems engineer of the Monash Human Power Team at Monash University, explains it like this:

Basically, if you want to cycle fast and you had the option to exclude one of the resistive forces from the physics, you would be wise to remove the aerodynamic component.

To put this in context, in elite level track cycling (where there are obviously no cars to hide behind!), aerodynamic drag typically accounts for about 95% of the total resistive force.

Thus the towing vehicle in Campbell’s record attempt helped him in two crucial ways. First, it brought him up to speed, thus reducing his energy expenditure during acceleration.

Second, the car’s slipstream attachment (basically a cross between a spoiler and a tent, behind which Campbell positioned himself during the ride) removed much of the aerodynamic resistance that would otherwise become insurmountable at such dizzying speeds.

By riding in the vehicle’s wake, the rider will experience both low relative wind speeds and low aerodynamic resistance. In fact, if the rider is positioned correctly, the air flow in the car’s wake can actually generate a propulsive aerodynamic force – effectively, the vehicle “drags” some air behind it, and the rider can thus be sucked along with it.

What about the physical demands of maintaining that speed after the tow release? This primarily depends on the size of the gear being used, and of the rolling resistance that needs to be overcome. By my calculations, and assuming aerodynamic drag behind the tow car is negligible, hitting 300km per hour (the next big milestone for both the mens’ and womens’ slipstream records) would require the rider to maintain a power output of 600-700 watts for the 2.4 seconds it would take to ride through the 200m time trap.

This seems achievable enough, given Tour de France riders can put out more than 1,000W for a full minute or more.

Read more: The aerodynamics of a Tour de France time trial

So the tow vehicle is really the crucial factor, rather than the rider’s physical performance. In fact, if the rider were to pull out of the slipstream after being towed up to 300km per hour, the energy demand to maintain this speed would be on the order of 100 kilowatts – roughly the performance of a high-powered motorcycle!

What about unassisted cycling records?

Given the crucial importance of overcoming aerodynamic drag, it’s no surprise elite cycling teams invest so much into aerodynamics research and development.

In fact, the aerodynamics of conventional bicycles and riding positions are far from optimal. This is evident when we compare speeds achieved on conventional bicycles with those of a “faired recumbent human-powered vehicle”. This is a modified bicycle on which the rider lies down in a recumbent position, with the pedals at the front, inside an aerodynamic covering called a fairing.

The speed record for such a vehicle over a 200m distance currently stands at 144km per hour. This is about twice as fast as peak speeds achieved during velodrome sprints on a conventional track bicycle.

David Burton, manager of Monash University’s wind tunnel research facility, says elite cycling has “already exhausted the low-hanging fruit when it comes to gaining a competitive advantage through aerodynamics”, given the rules and constraints of the sport in terms of equipment design and rider position.

But he adds there are still some high-tech research avenues to improving performance, including “advanced experimental testing techniques and highly resolved numerical simulations of the flow fields around cyclists”.

As we have seen above, there is probably still the potential for even greater speeds when it comes to slipstream-assisted cycling. I suggest it’s within the realm of current elite-level human performance to achieve speeds approaching 400km per hour when enveloped in the wake of a vehicle.

Perhaps the challenge ultimately then becomes a psychological one: would anyone dare attempt it?

– ref. How fast can a human cycle? With aerodynamic help, the 300km per hour barrier seems easily within reach – http://theconversation.com/how-fast-can-a-human-cycle-with-aerodynamic-help-the-300km-per-hour-barrier-seems-easily-within-reach-122321

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tony Walker, Adjunct Professor, School of Communications, La Trobe University

In diplomacy, there are moments that help to define the trajectory of a relationship between countries, and these can be either good and bad.

Australia and China appear to be living through one of those bad moments following the arrest of an Australian citizen of Chinese origin for espionage.

This is a serious situation by any standards. In China, spying is a capital offence that can lead to the death penalty.

What makes the formal arrest of writer Yang Hengjun on suspicion of “committing espionage crimes” a potentially defining moment is that it coincides with a persistent downturn in the relationship between Canberra and Beijing.

Read more: Australian-Chinese author’s detention raises important questions about China’s motivations

In its spying allegations, China has not specified on whose behalf Yang may have been “spying”. Given his record as a critic of the Chinese state, one should be sceptical about these allegations.

Australia has denied emphatically any suggestion of an espionage relationship with the Australian-Chinese writer. Foreign Minister Marise Payne said:

There is no basis for any allegation Dr Yang was spying for the Australian government.

Payne used unusually blunt language in her initial response to news of Yang’s arrest.

The government is very concerned and disappointed to learn that Australian citizen and academic Dr Yang Hengjun was formally arrested in China on suspicion of espionage on 23 August and will continue to be criminally detained.

Whether intended, or not, the words “criminally detained” could be read two ways. Payne could simply have meant that Yang continued to be detained. On the other hand, her words could suggest she believes he was unlawfully detained.

Either way, this is an uncharacteristically strong intervention by a foreign minister who has a reputation for being super cautious.

Canberra might seek to pretend it is business as usual with China given the continued strength of the trading relationship, but that aside it is now clear relations are heading further into troubled waters.

This may have been inevitable given China’s growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.

But the Yang episode has brought into sharp relief the tensions that have resided not far below the surface in the Australia-China relationship.

Read more: Why ‘Democracy peddler’ Yang Hengjun has been detained in China and why he must be released

These have been festering since then-Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull adopted a harder-edged approach to dealing with perceived Chinese interference in Australia’s internal affairs.

This involved the passage of foreign interference laws aimed at limiting China’s ability to influence Australia’s internal political debate. The new laws restricted donations to political parties and a installed a registration system for entities that might seek domestic political leverage.

At the same time, Turnbull ramped up Australia’s rhetoric about alleged Chinese interference. Australia, he said, would “stand up” against such interference.

This statement infuriated Beijing, since it recalled Mao Zedong’s words in proclaiming the People’s Republic on October 1 1949, the 70th anniversary of which will be celebrated the length and breadth of China in a month’s time.

There is some dispute among China historians whether Mao actually said these words from the Gate of Heavenly Peace overlooking Tiananmen Square. In any case, they are embedded in Chinese mythology.

Turnbull exhibited poor political judgment in throwing a sacred Chinese text back in Beijing’s face. He compounded the mistake by repeating the words in Mandarin.

Since then no Australian prime minister has visited Beijing. Ministers who find their way to China are treated coolly.

On a recent visit to Beijing for talks on the Regional Comprehensive Partnership (RCEP), Trade Minister Simon Birmingham was not granted a formal meeting with his Chinese counterpart. He had to make do with an encounter on the sidelines.

In such ways does China makes its displeasure known.

That unhappiness will not have dissipated following Australian-US ministerial consultations (AUSMIN) in Sydney earlier this month. The Americans, led by hawkish Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, pushed Australia towards a harder-edged position on China.

This was reflected in a ministerial communique that singled out Beijing for a range of provocative actions in what China regards as its sphere of influence.

The principals expressed serious concerns at continued militarisation of disputed features in the South China Sea. They strongly objected to coercive unilateral actions by any claimant state that could alter the status quo and increase tensions.

The communique went on at greater length about what Canberra and Washington perceive to be the unhelpful activities of China in its neighbourhood.

Historically, the 2019 AUSMIN session may well come to be regarded as an inflection point in Australian and US collaboration in dealing with threats posed to regional peace and stability by a rising China.

In the lead-up to AUSMIN, China had made its disappointment with Australia known in remarks by its foreign minister, Wang Yi, on the sidelines of an Association of South East Asian Nations forum in Bangkok in early August.

Payne had described a meeting with Wang as “productive”. Wang, on the other hand, said that “the process of improving our ties has not been satisfactory”.

In light of this, it’s likely relations have become even less satisfactory since the AUSMIN talks.

Hard on the heels of AUSMIN came the extraordinary intervention in the China debate by Liberal backbencher Andrew Hastie, who likened France’s failure to withstand Nazi Germany to the West’s inadequate responses to China’s rise.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison tried to brush aside Hastie’s provocative remarks by suggesting there was nothing new in what he had to say. This was disingenuous, given the circumstances.

In Beijing for trade talks at the time, Birmingham appealed to his colleagues to consider the “national interest” before indulging in the sort of intemperate observations that Hastie had committed himself to in a newspaper opinion piece.

None of this quietened a debate in Australia about managing relations with China. All sides of the debate are now engaged in what is arguably the most complex foreign policy dilemma in the history of the Federation.

Read more: Australia and China push the ‘reset’ button on an important relationship

Remarks made by Morrison in Hanoi on his way to the G7 summit in France will have further piqued Beijing’s displeasure. In response to questions at a press conference the prime minister appeared to align himself with Vietnam in its resistance to what is perceived to be China’s bullying of smaller states in the region.

Morrison did not directly identify China as the culprit but his remarks were clear.

It’s not about picking sides. It’s about ensuring each and every nation in this region can have confidence in its independence and sovereignty.

Vietnam and China are at loggerheads over disputed waters in the East China Sea. Sharpening these differences is the potential for oil and gas riches in waters off Vietnam.

Read more: Despite strong words, the US has few options left to reverse China’s gains in the South China Sea

This brings us back to the case of Yang Hengjun.

If relations were in better working order, would Yang be in the same situation? This is a reasonable question without an immediate answer.

However, what would seem to be relevant are the cases of two Canadians detained last December and accused by Beijing of stealing state secrets. These are serious matters and, like Yang’s case, could involve the death penalty.

Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor were detained following the arrest in Vancouver of Meng Wenzhou, the daughter of the founder of technology giant Huawei.

The US has been seeking Meng’s extradition to face charges of breaching sanctions against Iran.

US attempts to extradite Meng are making their way through the Canadian court system. Meanwhile, Kovrig and Spavor are hostages to a ruthless Chinese geopolitical power play.

In Yang’s case, Australia’s options are limited beyond pushing as hard as it can for his release. Now he has arrested for a serious crime, this will become more difficult.

The Yang episode may well prove a watershed moment in Australia-China relations against the background of gathering geopolitical tensions over trade and security.

– ref. Yang Hengjun case a pivotal moment in increasingly tense Australia-China relationship – http://theconversation.com/yang-hengjun-case-a-pivotal-moment-in-increasingly-tense-australia-china-relationship-122460

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Yang Hengjun has appealed to Scott Morrison to please “help me go home as soon as possible” in a message his supporters say came via Tuesday’s visit to him by Australian officials.

As the Australian government continues its pressure on China over Yang’s formal arrest on suspicion of espionage, the message said Yang thanked his supporters.

He said:

I am deeply indebted to the Australian embassy for coming to see me.

An [Ministry of State Security] investigation officer told me that Australia was small and wouldn’t care about me.

He said Australia was dependent on China for its trade and economy, and Canberra wouldn’t help me, let alone rescue me.

He said Australia wouldn’t help me because I am not white.

This is nonsense. He was wrong. I am extremely grateful to the Australian Prime Minister, Foreign Minister and Members of Parliament, the Embassy team, and the Ambassador for their help.

Read more: Foreign Minister Marise Payne says Yang Hengjun is not Australian spy

Yang said he had devoted the past 15 years to writing for China, for Chinese people, reform, and improving China-United States relations and China-Australia relations. He did not deserve the kind of treatment he was getting, he said.

Foreign Minister Marise Payne, who issued a strong statement on Tuesday, again said the government was seeking Yang’s release “particularly if he is only being held for his political beliefs.”

In comments on Wednesday, she also stressed that Yang should be accorded access to lawyers and held in appropriate conditions while in detention.

Read more: Australian writer Yang Hengjun is set to be charged in China at an awkward time for Australia-China relations

Payne said the government had no reason to think his detention was connected to any other issues. The government has said Yang was not spying for Australia.

The Chinese government has reacted sharply to Australia’s pressure over Yang. A spokesman for the Foreign Ministry told reporters on Tuesday: “China deplores the Australian statement on this case. I would like to reiterate that China is a country with rule of law. Australia should respect China’s judicial sovereignty and not interfere in any way in China’s lawful handling of the case.”

– ref. Yang appeals to Scott Morrison in message issued by supporters – http://theconversation.com/yang-appeals-to-scott-morrison-in-message-issued-by-supporters-122580

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Whitehouse, Bennett Chair of Autism, Telethon Kids Institute, Univeristy of Western Australia, University of Western Australia

A new study that combines data from over 20 million births has found that a caesarean section delivery is associated with autism spectrum disorder (autism) and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).

However, the study does not indicate that caesarean section deliveries cause autism or ADHD. The truth is much more difficult to decipher, and provides an excellent case study for the old adage that correlation doesn’t equal causation.

Read more: Clearing up confusion between correlation and causation

Remind me, what are these disorders?

Autism and ADHD are what we call neurodevelopmental disorders. This means they have clear differences in behavioural development, which we presume are due to brain differences.

In the case of autism, behavioural differences occur in the part of the brain primarily responsible for social and communication development. For ADHD, these differences affect the ability to control and direct attention.

The exact reasons why the brain develops differently are not entirely clear. Studies in twins, which are able to help us understand the role of genetic and environmental influences on a given trait, have shown that both autism and ADHD involve a large genetic component.

However, these studies have also indicated that environmental influences, such as bacterial or viral infections during pregnancy, may play a role in the development of these conditions, most likely through interactions with genetic make-up.

Read more: What causes autism? What we know, don’t know and suspect

What did this study find?

The association between certain caesarean sections and autism has been known for close to two decades. Any possible link with ADHD has received comparatively less research, but there have still be numerous studies in this area.

Today’s study, published in the journal JAMA Network Open, combines all of the studies conducted previously into a single analysis. This “meta-analysis” then allows the researchers to come up with a single estimate of how strong the association between caesarean sections, autism and ADHD may be.

In this case, the meta-analysis included over 20 million people. It found children born via caesarean section had an increase in odds of being diagnosed with autism or ADHD in early childhood.

The associations were scientifically robust, but very small. Children delivered via caesarean section were 1.33 times more likely to be diagnosed with autism and 1.17 times more likely to be diagnosed with ADHD.

When the prevalence of these conditions is already relatively low (around 1% for autism, and 7% for ADHD), this increase in odds is not substantial. In the instance of autism, this is a shift in odds from a 1% prevalence to 1.33%. This shift is not consequential and certainly does not call for any change in our clinical practice.

Read more: What you need to know to understand risk estimates

This association was similar for children born by either elective or emergency caesarean section.

But what does it mean?

The temptation with findings like this is to draw a causal link between one factor (caesarean section) and the other (autism or ADHD). Unlike so many other areas of science, the conclusions are easily understood and the implications appear obvious.

But the simplicity is deceptive, and says more about our desire for simple answers than it does about the truth of the science.

The studies included in this meta-analysis used a branch of science called epidemiology, which is concerned with how often conditions and diseases occur in different groups of people and why, and how to prevent or manage them.

Read more: Epidemiology and the media

Epidemiological studies survey a large population and find a pattern of results that indicate a certain factor may be coinciding with a certain disease more often than we would expect by chance.

In this case, there is the observation that people with autism or ADHD are more likely to be born by caesarean section than we would otherwise typically expect.

But this kind of epidemiological study is unable determine if one factor (caesarean section) causes another (ADHD or autism).

There are two key reasons why.

First, we can’t rule out that a third factor may be influencing this association. We know, for example, that caesarean sections are more common for pregnant women who are obese and older, and who have a history of immune conditions such as asthma.

All of these factors have also been linked with an increased chance of having a child with autism, and it is entirely possible – and some would argue, probable – that it is more likely these factors underlie the relationship between caesarean section and neurodevelopmental disorders.

The second reason is that these kind of epidemiological studies are unable to provide what scientists call “a mechanism” – that is, a biological explanation as to why this association may exist.

A mechanism study in this area may be to explore biological differences in newborns either born via vaginal or caesarean delivery, and understand how these differences may lead to atypical behavioural development.

Without a strong body of evidence from these kinds of studies, there is simply no scientific basis for concluding a causal link between caesarean section and neurodevelopmental disorders.

So what should we take away from this study?

The study provides a strong basis for concluding there is a statistical association between caesarean section delivery on one hand, and autism and ADHD on the other. But that’s about it.

Why this link exists remains unknown, but it is almost certain that a caesarean delivery alone does not contribute to the odds of a child developing autism or ADHD.

Instead, it is likely that other pregnancy factors play a role in this relationship, as well as genetic factors that may interact with the environmental influences during pregnancy to contribute to brain development.

Read more: ADHD prescriptions are going up, but that doesn’t mean we’re over-medicating

– ref. There’s no evidence caesarean sections cause autism or ADHD – http://theconversation.com/theres-no-evidence-caesarean-sections-cause-autism-or-adhd-122473

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christine Cunningham, Senior Lecturer in Educational Leadership, Edith Cowan University

The protests in Hong Kong have led to some open clashes here in Australia between students from mainland China and others from Hong Kong.

There were angry scenes between pro-China and pro-Hong Kong groups in Sydney and Melbourne, as well as at universities in Brisbane and Adelaide.

These clashes are troubling for the Australian university sector, which enrols 182,555 mainland Chinese and 11,822 Hong Kongers as international students at various education institutions.

Read more: Trust Me, I’m An Expert: Why the Hong Kong protesters feel they have nothing to lose

Our current research suggests differences in the curriculum studied by mainland Chinese and Hong Kong students may help to explain the beliefs underpinning the protest movements.

Our research involved in-depth interviews of a random sample of more than a dozen international postgraduate students from mainland China who are studying, or very recently have been, at Western Australian universities.

The interviews took place in late 2018 – before the recent Hong Kong protests. We asked the participants about their experiences studying in Chinese schools where Moral Education is a compulsory subject.

Lessons in China

The Moral Education curriculum teaches Chinese children to be politically proud of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and loyal to the ideals of a One-China worldview.

Moral Education is a stand-alone subject and also embedded within other subjects, such as history and Chinese literacy studies. Moral Education starts being taught in the early years of schooling and continues throughout high school and during undergraduate university studies.

In primary school, all Chinese children are supposed to join the Young Pioneers, a 130 million-strong youth organisation controlled by the CCP.

In high school, teachers invites students who achieve highly academically and morally to join the Communist Youth League. In university, excellent students are invited to join the Communist Party.

In contrast, Hong Kong students do not study Moral Education and cannot join the Young Pioneers, Youth League or the Communist Party.

When East meets West

Preliminary indications from our interviews suggest that when mainland Chinese students arrive in Western countries for postgraduate studies they carry with them a moral duty to uphold their national identity. This identity is arguably constructed through the Moral Education lessons.

The following are translated Mandarin quotes from participants in our study. Each quote comes from a different student, but we have de-identified them to protect their identity. They are talking about their experiences of studying Moral Education in their primary and high school years:

I was taught to love our motherland and love our country. It’s the right thing to do.

We were taught many slogans that were inspirational, positive and patriotic. It taught us to love our country, our family and our society.

In secondary school Moral Education made us all feel we are part of one China and what the government is doing is to give us a better life.

We are also learning from our interviews that even after mainland Chinese students study in Western universities for several years, they are unlikely to change their previously learnt ideological positions.

I think although the Communist Party is a one-party dictatorship, because in a big country like China it is very difficult to apply democracy and maintain the sustainability otherwise it will be too chaotic.

When I was standing under the party flag and sworn in to join our Communist Party it was so exciting. After so many years of ideological and political education, I believe that the Communist Party is the most advanced organisation of our society.

Now, especially when we are living overseas, if you hear the Chinese national anthem it brings me to tears of pride, belonging and identity.

Sympathy for the Communist Party

Another phenomenon our interviews revealed is that many of our participants expressed strong sympathy towards the CCP government.

That holds even after they learn about facts and events that have been censored in China, including the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.

I will most likely participate (in) rallies like welcoming President Xi’s visit to Australia because I am […] Chinese and I have a sense of belonging and responsibility attached to this Chinese identity. I also will be vocal about protecting China’s sovereignty.

China is a big country with a large population and there are still many people who are not well educated, therefore they are easy to be incited by others. Although the one party is never 100% perfect, it at least proved itself that most people in China have a good life under its leadership.

Isolated in Australia

Over the course of three interviews with each participant in our study, we discovered many Chinese international students feel isolated from Australian friendship circles.

They expressed concern at the lack of opportunities to truly engage with Australian students during their time living here. Many worry that local Australian students just aren’t interested in them.

Actually I have little knowledge about how Australian society works – aside from the common social norms. I don’t know where I can access such knowledge. Some locals take it for granted that we should have known this, but we really don’t as we grew up in a totally different place.

For me I tend to have the impression that the local students believe we Chinese students are not interested in talking to them, so they would not take the initiative and talk to us either. I suggest that our university can do more about it like organising activities so we could access local friendships.

Read more: Australian universities can’t rely on India if funds from Chinese students start to fall

International education should be a two-way transaction, deep in its engagement and fluid in its ability to change as we change.

But what these interviews show is the strong feelings many students from mainland China have about their country and government, which perhaps explains why they feel anger towards those who protest against that way of life.

The growing trend of these Chinese graduates returning to their homeland for work opportunities also has a bearing on their continuing patriotism and sense of national identity.

– ref. Why Chinese and Hong Kong students clash in Australia: the patriotic v the protest movement – http://theconversation.com/why-chinese-and-hong-kong-students-clash-in-australia-the-patriotic-v-the-protest-movement-122405

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher Sheil, Visiting Senior Fellow in History, UNSW

We now know the Bureau of Statistics did quite a bit of soul-searching before producing the bland and ultimately misleading press release headed “Inequality Stable Since 2013-14” last month.

Late last week we pointed to the odd way in which the release included no data to back up the claim, and how journalists from the ABC and Sydney Morning Herald and Age quickly discovered the statistics it purported to summarise actually showed wealth inequality climbing.

On Wednesday in The Guardian, Paul Karp revealed the contents of documents released under freedom of information laws that shed light on the creation of the press release.

An earlier draft had pointed to a “significant increase” in wealth inequality compared with 2011–12 and 2003–04.

The phrase “significant increase” didn’t survive the editing process.

A reference to a measure of wealth inequality being “at its peak” since it was first comprehensively measured in 2003-04 was also removed after a direction to “focus on income over wealth”.

Another email noted there has been “a significant (downward) change” in the wealth share of the bottom fifth of households, but added: “I’m not sure that we want to draw attention to this though??”

The Bureau responded to the Guardian article on Wednesday, saying it had not attempted to misrepresent the data, and that it prepared the press releases “internally with no external influence”.

It’s not just the ABS

It’s not only the Bureau of Statistics that has found it difficult to draw attention to increasing wealth inequality.

In August last year the Productivity Commission released what it called a stocktake of the evidence on inequality, titled “Rising Inequality?”.

It wasn’t so much a “stocktake of the evidence” as a showcase of new specially assembled evidence that conflicted with a wider body of evidence that shows wealth inequality increasing.

The Commission’s contribution presented the wealth shares for the top 10% of Australian households only.

These came not from publicly available data, but from “confidential unit record files” made available to approved users by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

We have presented the microdata in its raw form below, alongside four other well-established and widely published series.

The striking feature is that every line except the Productivity Commission’s shows inequality increasing since 2011.

The data from both Credit Suisse (on which Oxfam bases its research) and the Evatt Foundation suggest that the top 10% now own more than half the nation’s household wealth, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s 47.2% is just a little less.

The Productivity Commission is an outlier in finding the top 10% own closer to 40%. Its finding that the share has been falling between 2013-14 and 2015-16 makes it even more of an outlier.

Beyond the bland headline, the latest statistics from the Bureau confirm our analysis of growing wealth inequality.

The Commission’s results are implausible

Our suspicions were aroused when the Productivity Commission’s results appeared to be incompatible with the Bureau’s published findings, of which they were a subset.

The Bureau’s data showed the share of wealth held by the top 20% climbing, while the Commission’s series showed the share held by the top 10% falling – implying that the share of the next top 10% must have been climbing quite a lot.

The divergence strained credulity. There are no advantages in accumulating wealth that apply to households in the second top decile that do not apply with at least equal force to those in the top decile.

Read more: Don’t believe what they say about inequality. Some of us are worse off

Without an outside explanation (such as an extra tax applying only to the top 10%) the result is so improbable as to seem impossible.

Other data available from the Bureau at the time showed that the ratio of the wealth of households 10% from the top to the wealth of those 10% from the bottom had climbed, while at the same time the Commission found the wealth share of the top 10% overall had fallen.

Unfortunately, the Commission gave pride of place to its own findings over and above more conventional findings, and used a question mark in the title of its paper “Rising Inequality?” to imply that it might not be.

As we wrote here last week, wealth inequality and its effects matter. Australians need the truth about how much it is growing.

Read more: What the Bureau of Statistics didn’t highlight: our continuing upward redistribution of wealth

– ref. It’s not just the ABS. It’s also the Productivity Commission downplaying the growth in inequality – http://theconversation.com/its-not-just-the-abs-its-also-the-productivity-commission-downplaying-the-growth-in-inequality-104135

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jessica Balanzategui, Lecturer in Cinema and Screen Studies, Swinburne University of Technology

When it comes to television, how much choice is too much? By year’s end, Australian consumers will have at least seven major subscription video services to choose from: Netflix, Stan, Amazon Prime, Hayu, Foxtel Now, 10 All Access, and Disney Plus. Apple’s highly anticipated Apple TV Plus platform will likely launch in Australia in late 2019.

Subscription streaming video platforms have been perceived as disruptive newcomers to the television landscape since the launch of Netflix in Australia in 2015. Yet the launch of Disney’s new streaming service, Disney Plus, in Australia in November will instigate a new phase of maturity for the market.

In this increasingly flooded landscape, it is becoming common for Australians to subscribe to more than one streaming video platform. Research by technology analyst firm Telsyte shows that 43% of Australian households subscribe to more than one streaming video service, up from 30% in 2018.

Read more: Local film and TV content makes up just 1.6% of Netflix’s Australian catalogue

End of a televisual era?

As subscription streaming services become a mainstream component of our television culture, uncertainty about television’s future is intensifying. Concern about how many Australian stories we’ll see onscreen in a landscape increasingly dominated by US streaming services is justified.

Anxieties about television’s changing status also circulate around its perceived shift from a mass cultural, communally-experienced medium to a niche, personalised – and thus fragmented – constellation of on-demand offerings.

In this context, the finale of HBO’s Game of Thrones in May represented a watershed moment. Media commentators predicted that it marked the “last vestige” of a televisual monoculture, the “end of the era” of television as a communal experience, and, for better or worse, the impending “demise of television as mass cultural event”.

With the introduction of two new streaming video platforms that threaten Netflix’s global and local market dominance – Disney Plus and Apple TV Plus – audiences may well become more fragmented as consumers choose platforms that best align with their own tastes.

Telsyte’s recent research found that one third of Australians have no set limit to the number of streaming video services to which they would simultaneously subscribe.

Yet some industry commentators predict that three subscriptions may be the limit for many households.

If this prediction is accurate, unless many households subscribe to the same three platforms, it may become increasingly rare for a large sector of the public to watch the same content at the time of its release. Such fragmentation may prevent TV shows from gaining traction in the wider cultural consciousness.

Original content with broad appeal

Yet new platforms also mark a new era of flagship original streaming content, which will seek to capture not niche but mass audiences and thus subscribers. Netflix has pivoted away from acquiring existing content, instead prioritising original, Netflix-branded content with the potential to be a global hit.

Indeed, many of Netflix’s high profile licensed titles – including, notably, their Disney catalogue – have been lost in recent years.

Both Disney Plus and Apple TV Plus are also prioritising original content, recognising that in a crowded landscape, highly anticipated, exclusive content attracts subscribers. Apple are reportedly spending $1 billion on original content for their new platform.

Disney Plus will capitalise on their high profile brands with original titles including Star Wars TV series, The Mandalorian, and Marvel TV series, Ms Marvel. As a central pillar in the sprawling Marvel Cinematic Universe, Disney Plus will contribute directly to the expansive narrative world of the most lucrative film franchise of all time.

The major players know that intertwining blockbuster content with clear branding will become crucial in the battle for mass audiences. Along with Netflix and Apple TV Plus, Disney Plus will aim to release exclusive content that sparks enough ripples across both social media and the wider cultural consciousness to be “unmissable”.

Rejecting the “binge model” made popular by Netflix, Disney Plus will reportedly release television episodes weekly, presumably in an attempt to synchronise and maximise the force of these cultural waves.

What about Australian stories?

In the competitive quest for global hits, the place of local content is uncertain. Research by Ramon Lobato and Alexa Scarlata found that local content on Netflix’s Australian platform constituted just 2-2.5% of the catalogue in 2017, which fell to 1.6% in 2018.

While groups like Screen Producers Australia are advocating for local content quotas for streaming video services, implementing such regulation may become increasingly complicated as more US-based services enter the market.

As Netflix – the most popular subscription streaming video service in Australia – prepares to compete with the two new US giants in the exclusive content arena, it is likely that acquisition of local content will become even less of a priority.

It is unclear what this will mean for original content jointly commissioned with local producers or networks, such as Netflix and the ABC’s Pine Gap. However, recent Netflix announcements of original made-in-Australia productions are promising.

When the dust settles on the streaming wars, it will be important that we monitor how local content is accounted for in the business strategies of competing streaming services, to ensure Australian stories remain on screen.

– ref. More streaming services could change what we watch on TV and how we watch it – http://theconversation.com/more-streaming-services-could-change-what-we-watch-on-tv-and-how-we-watch-it-122399

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The NSW Labor party is in crisis, with its general secretary Kaila Murnain suspended on Wednesday night after sensational evidence about an alleged $100,000 donation from Chinese property developer Huang Xiangmo.

This followed state ALP leader Jodi McKay declaring she no longer had confidence in Murnain’s judgment and calling a meeting of party officials to have her suspended.

Earlier Murnain told the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption she learned Huang was behind the donation, made in 2015, when told by then state Labor parliamentarian Ernest Wong in September 2016 at a meeting behind the NSW parliament.

She contacted then Labor senator Sam Dastyari who advised her to go to the party’s lawyer.

She immediately met with Ian Robertson, partner at Holding Redlich, who, she alleged, advised her to remain silent about the matter.

Under the NSW law donations from property developers are illegal.

Read more: Australians think our politicians are corrupt, but where is the evidence?

Murnain was vague about when she first learned about the 2015 donation saying, “My recollection of that was I found out there was a large sum of money that had come into the office that week”. She also said, “The truth is I actually don’t remember at what stage I became aware there was a large amount of money.”

In Labor records, the money appears in the form of donations of $5000 from 20 people.

In evidence earlier in the week ICAC heard that the cash was allegedly presented in an Aldi bag.

In her statement McKay said she was “taking steps to clean up the mess at ALP head office.

“I am appalled by the evidence of the past three days,” McKay said.

Huang in recent times has had his permanent residency revoked and been barred from re-entering Australia on security grounds. Reportedly ASIO found he was “amenable to conducting acts of foreign interference” He responded by saying political parties should return his donations.

– ref. NSW ALP secretary suspended after revelations about Huang Xiangmo money – http://theconversation.com/nsw-alp-secretary-suspended-after-revelations-about-huang-xiangmo-money-122563

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Australian universities will live “under the ever-darkening shadow of Beijing” unless they act more decisively against Chinese influence, the Professor of Public Ethics at Charles Sturt University, Clive Hamilton, has warned.

Hamilton, who has made a study of Chinese influence in higher education, accused “many” Australian vice-chancellors of losing sight of academic freedom, under the pressure of revenue and influence from China.

He also claimed the University of Queensland (UQ), which recently saw violent clashes between rival groups of Chinese protesters, had brought the trouble on itself by its pro-Beijing attitude.

Hamilton was delivering a lecture titled “Chinese Communist Party Influence in Australian Universities” at UQ on Wednesday night.

Earlier Wednesday federal Education Minister Dan Tehan announced a University Foreign Interference Taskforce that will have members from universities, national security agencies and the federal education department.

Read more: Government boosts scrutiny over Chinese targeting of university sector

Hamilton said vice-chancellors “are quick to say they support free speech and academic freedom.

In truth, the corporatisation of the tertiary sector and the extraordinary dependence on revenue flows from China, coupled with a sustained and highly effective influence campaign directed at senior university executives, has meant that many have lost sight of the meaning of academic freedom.

We have yet to see one Australian university draw a line in the sand and make it clear that it is willing to take pain in defence of academic freedom and free speech on campus.

Instead, all we hear are words without commitment. A principle is worthless unless we are willing to sacrifice something to defend it. Unless we are willing to make that sacrifice, Australia’s universities will live under the ever-darkening shadow of Beijing.

Read more: Explainer: what are Confucius Institutes and do they teach Chinese propaganda?

He accused UQ of an “anodyne” response to the violence on July 24 in its calling for free speech to be respected. This had indicated “that it would not be taking sides, thereby imposing a moral equivalence on the pro-democracy and the pro-Beijing protesters who planned and initiated the violence – a bit like President Trump’s response to the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville,” Hamilton said.

“Moreover, experienced observers believe that the pro-Beijing protesters were led not by students but by heavies sent by the Consulate, probably MSS [Chinese Ministry of State Security] agents. If so then the attempt to intimidate and silence pro-Hong Kong protesters was on the face it a violation of Australia’s new foreign interference law,” he said.

“The UQ nationalist protest and streets protests in Sydney and Melbourne are part of a worldwide campaign being orchestrated by Beijing,” he said.

“UQ has been an easy target because the university has for some years been signalling that whatever Beijing wants it can have. This created an enabling environment for the protests to turn aggressive. Patriotic Chinese students, and the Brisbane consulate, feel that they own the campus and so they were particularly affronted when pro-Hong Kong protesters decided to express their view.”

– ref. Academic urges universities to get out from under the ‘shadow of Beijing’. – http://theconversation.com/academic-urges-universities-to-get-out-from-under-the-shadow-of-beijing-122562

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mihajla Gavin, Lecturer, University of Technology Sydney

John Setka, the controversial union official who Labor leader Anthony Albanese wants expelled from the party, is known for wearing a t-shirt emblazoned with a cobra. If the snake symbolism isn’t immediately clear, a slogan spells it out: “If provoked, we will strike.”

Such militant imagery still seems to resonate in the Construction, Forestry, Maritime, Mining and Energy Union, whose Victorian branch Setka heads, but its wider appeal is on the wane.

Withdrawing labour, the traditional unionist’s weapon, is being blunted not only by declining rates of union membership but restrictive laws. The right to strike, according to Sally McManus, head of the Australian Council of Trade Unions, is “very nearly dead”.

Mark Butler, president of the Australian Labor Party, says the union movement faces a deep crisis.

To find a path forward, it makes sense to look at those unions for whom striking has always been problematic. Public-sector teacher unions, for example.

Teachers do go on strike, as demonstrated by actions in the United States, France, Poland and even South Australia. But striking doesn’t hurt their employer financially at all. Mostly it just inconveniences parents, who must find alternative child-minders.

My doctoral research suggests the traditional weakness of teacher unions has become their strength, by forcing them to experiment with other strategies to achieve their aims.

Now teachers are more the “union heartland” than blue-collar workers. Union membership in the education and training sector is about 33%, compared with 15% generally.

Here are four lessons other unions can learn from teacher unions.

Read more: Why wooing women is the way forward for trade unions

1. Constructive cooperation

Resistance has its place, but my research into the NSW Teachers’ Federation suggests it has effectively secured better outcomes for its members through identifying points of common interest and co-operating with the powers that be.

In particular, it has constructively supported the agenda to improve teacher quality, on the basis that better pay and propects would go a long way to attracting, motivating and retaining talented teachers. The NSW government’s blueprint to improve teaching quality and learning outcomes grew out of the shared concerns of the teachers union and the NSW Department of Education.

2. Connecting with the community

In line with leveraging the concern of its immediate employer, public-sector teacher unions have shown the importance of appealing to their ultimate employers: the general public.

The Australian Education Union, which represents public school, early childhood and TAFE teachers, has run a community-focused campaign to improve school funding. To win hearts and minds, the union has told the stories of what some schools have achieved with more funding. The campaign has included a national bus tour, billboards and door-knocking.

3. Beyond wages and conditions

The first two lessons lead to the third: the usefulness of finding imaginative ways to advance members’ interests. Historically unions concerned themselves only with wages and conditions. Now, at a time of low wages growth, unions need to consider taking on other concerns.

The NSW Teachers’ Federation has done this in seeking to cater to its members’ professional concerns. It has established a Centre for Professional Learning. The centre offers a range of professional development courses, publishes a journal and produces a podcast.

4. A sense of ownership

One of the systemic problems facing unions is the increasing prevalence of casual and gig work, where workers see little point in joining a union. This is particularly evident among young workers, with just 6% of those aged 15-24 years being union members. The problem is so dire it has even been suggested unions should offer young workers free memberships.

There’s research, however, to suggest the solution is to improve feelings of belonging to their union. The United Voice Union has tackled this problem in the hospitality sector by establishing an experimental “digital union”, Hospo Voice, to appeal specifically to hospitality workers.

The NSW Teachers’ Federation, in the face of increasing numbers of teachers being on temporary contracts, has put more resources into recruiting them. Over the past 15 years it has increased member numbers from less than 3,000 to more than 10,000 members.

A time to change

These are hard times for all unions. There is no silver bullet. But what recent history, including the case of John Setka and the CFMMEU, suggests is that old-style union militancy may be on its last legs.

To stay relevant, unions need to commit themselves to breaking old habits, not breaking the law. The time is ripe to reflect on renewed strategies for worker justice.

– ref. Militant unionists are striking out: here are 4 things unions can do to stay relevant – http://theconversation.com/militant-unionists-are-striking-out-here-are-4-things-unions-can-do-to-stay-relevant-121040

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Liz Ritchie-Tyo, Associate Professor, School of Physical, Environmental, and Mathematical Sciences, UNSW

President Donald Trump has reportedly suggested on more than one occasion that the US military explode nuclear bombs inside hurricanes to disrupt them before they reach land.

As reported in National Geographic, this is not the first time a suggestion like this has been made – although Trump now denies having said it.

On the surface, it would seem like a simple solution to the devastation that occurs in the US each year during the hurricane season. However, there are several problems with this idea.

Read more: The economic cost of devastating hurricanes and other extreme weather events is even worse than we thought

What is a hurricane?

Hurricanes are low-pressure weather systems covering an area of more than 500,000km². They form over warm tropical oceans, which are their primary energy source. The low pressure at the centre of the hurricane – the eye – draws in the surrounding warm, moist air. This air then rises and condenses into deep thunderstorm clouds surrounding the centre – the eyewall – and also in cloud bands spiralling out from the eye called rainbands.

As the air is pulled into the eye, Earth’s rotation causes it to spin cyclonically – anticlockwise in the northern hemisphere and clockwise in the southern hemisphere. The continuous supply of air into the deep thunderstorms surrounding the eye allows the hurricane to intensify until it reaches a steady state of equilibrium with the oceans and the environment.

Would a nuclear bomb put a dent in a hurricane?

The average hurricane can be likened to a very inefficient heat engine. As the warm moist air rises, it releases heat energy through the formation of clouds and rain at a rate of about 5.2 x 10¹⁹ joules per day. Less than 10% of this heat is then converted into the mechanical energy of the wind.

To give some perspective of this energy, the heat released in a hurricane is equivalent to a 10-megatonne nuclear bomb exploding every hour. This energy is also on the order of the global energy consumption in 2016, according to the United States Energy Information Agency.

It seems unlikely that exploding a bomb in the hurricane would make much impact on such a powerful weather system, and it is impossible to run controlled experiments to determine whether it would.

Not to mention that there could be shocking effects from the fallout of radioactive material from such an explosion. These materials would be transported widely via the trade winds through the lower levels of the atmosphere, and potentially around the entire planet in the stratosphere – similar to the effects from the volcanic fallout from Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991.

Have people tried to stop hurricanes before?

There have been previous attempts to modify the impacts of hurricanes. Between 1962 and 1983 the US government funded experimental research on hurricane modification known as Project STORMFURY. The fundamental premise was, because the potential of damage from hurricanes increases rapidly with the hurricane’s wind speed, a reduction in wind speed of as little as 10% could make a large difference in the impacts when hurricanes reach land. By seeding the air outside the eyewall with silver iodide, a chemical used to seed clouds, it was thought a new ring of thunderstorms may develop outside the eyewall – robbing it of energy and weakening the hurricane.

Read more: Getting ready for hurricane season: 4 essential reads

Modification was attempted in four hurricanes on eight different days. On four of those days, a 10-30% reduction in wind speed was measured. The lack of response on the other fours days was initially interpreted to be the result of faulty execution of the experiment, but was later attributed to an imperfect understanding of the microphysics of clouds in hurricanes.

Successful cloud seeding using silver iodide requires that supercooled water droplets freeze onto the silver iodide seeds.

Recent observations show hurricanes have too many naturally occurring ice crystals and too few supercooled water droplets for cloud seeding to be effective. So any change in hurricane wind speed observed during the STORMFURY experiments was almost certainly due to the natural behaviour of hurricanes rather than human intervention.

Although Project STORMFURY was abandoned, the hurricane observation program is still run under the Hurricane Research Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The original aircraft used in Project STORMFURY were replaced in the 1970s by WP-3D aircraft, which still reside under NOAA and are operated by its officers.

Read more: Hurricanes to deliver a bigger punch to coasts

The observations collected by these aircraft continuously over a period of more than 60 years has helped improve hurricane forecasting. Furthermore, these observations have allowed researchers to develop vital insights into the structure, intensity, and physical processes of this most destructive of natural phenomena.

– ref. This is why nuking a hurricane will not work, Mr Trump – http://theconversation.com/this-is-why-nuking-a-hurricane-will-not-work-mr-trump-122398

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alison Whittaker, Research Fellow, University of Technology Sydney

If you haven’t yet heard of systemic racism — you’re about to. This week is the first ever inquest into an Indigenous death in custody to consider systemic racism. It has begun to take evidence of the role of systemic racism in the death of Aunty Tanya Day, a Yorta Yorta woman.

Day was taken into police custody from a regional Victorian train in 2017, despite being unconscious and in need of medical attention, under the offence of public drunkenness. While in the lock-up, she suffered a traumatic brain injury. She died seventeen days later, without regaining consciousness.

Read more: Explainer: what is casual racism?

Although public drunkenness is now set to be decriminalised in Victoria (leaving Queensland as the only state with the crime on its books), its criminalisation at the time of Day’s death, and how it set in motion a chain of events that caused her death, illustrates how systemic racism can operate.

Public drunkenness is an antiquated, racialised offence

Why? Because public drunkenness, since long before the Royal Commission into Aboriginal Deaths in Custody almost 30 years ago which recommended its decriminalisation, was a highly racialised offence.

The literature suggests its growing enforcement since the middle of last century operated to control a mobile Indigenous populace after the protection policy era that saw Indigenous people put on reserves, and their behaviours controlled by state government bodies.

Read more: FactCheck Q&A: are Indigenous Australians the most incarcerated people on Earth?

In places where the offence remains, its enforcement is highly-discretionary. This is because it’s a crime most people have committed, or commit regularly, yet 29.6% of all people imprisoned for public order offences, including public drunkenness, are Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander.

Yet, once the crime is “off the books”, we know policing and protective practices can still produce similar outcomes.

For instance, Rebecca Maher, a Wiradjuri woman, was placed under protective custody in NSW, a state which has decriminalised public drunkenness. When officers did not call an ambulance for her overnight and failed to adequately care for her in their custody, she died.

How do we explain these divergences?

Systemic racism offers us some answers — not only on how Day died in a prison system, but also on how that prison system comes to be and behave in a way that targets Indigenous women like her.

Indigenous women are the most incarcerated demographic on the continent, and Indigenous peoples are 12.5 times more likely to be incarcerated than non-Indigenous people.

So what is systemic racism?

At its most simple level for the purposes of this short article, systemic racism is a way of thinking about racism as a system, rather than just as an individual’s bias or prejudice.

It is distinct from forms of racism like casual racism (normalised, but explicit, racist gestures) and unconscious or implicit biases (unintended judgements and actions based on long-standing perceptions and power). But still, it is related to them.

Read more: Why short ‘unconscious bias’ programs aren’t enough to end racial harassment and discrimination

Systemic racism creates the architecture around which other forms of racism are enabled, supported and justified.

The Royal Commission defined systemic racism as:

rules, practices and habits which systematically discriminate against or in some way disadvantage Aboriginal people.

It can be helpful to think of systemic racism as having two parts that work together to create conditions of marginalisation and oppression for Indigenous people and people of colour, and advantage for white people and ethnic majorities.

Those two parts are institutional racism and structural racism.

Read more: Legal and welfare checks should be extended to save Aboriginal lives in custody

Institutional racism is expressed in institutions — their policies, procedures and preferences — like in courts, schools and hospitals

Structural racism is concerned with how a society organises itself around race.

Why this inquest is the first to consider systemic racism

Confused yet? I am — systemic racism is necessarily complicated. One of the reasons Day’s inquest is the first to consider systemic racism in deaths in custody is, perhaps tellingly, that systemic racism is good at making itself seem neutral, or at the very least, hard to perceive and express.

This is sometimes called epistemic and ontological racism, and because of this and their own institutional racism, Coroners Courts have historically been silent on or complicit with systemic racism.

Read more: The Imagination Declaration: young Indigenous Australians want to be heard – but will we listen?

Thanks to the tireless work of the family and their vision of justice for Day, the inquest will consider:

• whether the actions and behaviours of those who interacted with Day were influenced by her status as a Yorta Yorta woman

• whether racism played a part in their decision-making

• the policies, procedures and training of the organisations involved.

While this is, of course, not enough to understand the full range of systemic racism that may have led to Aunty Tanya Day’s death, it’s a crucial starting point to understand racism against Indigenous peoples as lethal and endemic.

– ref. Aboriginal woman Tanya Day died in custody. Now an inquest is investigating if systemic racism played a role – http://theconversation.com/aboriginal-woman-tanya-day-died-in-custody-now-an-inquest-is-investigating-if-systemic-racism-played-a-role-122471

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jane Lockton, PhD Candidate (Psychology, Health), University of Adelaide

Six babies are stillborn every day in Australia. This significant loss affects parents for years to come, often the rest of their lives. However, stillbirth also affects many others, including grandparents.

But until now, we have not heard the experiences of grandparents whose grandchildren are stillborn. Their grief was rarely acknowledged and there are few supports tailored to them.

Our recently published research is the first in the world to specifically look at grandmothers’ experience of stillbirth and the support they need.

Read more: Death and families – when ‘normal’ grief can last a lifetime

In Australia, a baby is defined as stillborn when it dies in the womb from 20 weeks’ gestation, or weighs more than 400 grams. Other countries have slightly different definitions.

About 2,200 babies are stillborn each year here meaning stillbirth may be more common than many people think. And people don’t tend to talk about this openly despite it leading to significant grief.

To explore grandparents’ experience of stillbirth, we interviewed 14 grandmothers for our initial study, and a further 23 grandmothers and grandfathers since then.

Many grandparents were not aware stillbirth was a risk today. Most felt unprepared. Like parents, grandparents experienced grief like no other after their grandchild was stillborn.

Rose said:

The grief is always there, it never leaves you […] I don’t know why but sometimes it is still very raw.

Sally said:

I [would do] anything in my power to take it away, even if it meant, you know, something dreadful happening to me, I would have done it.

Grandparents also spoke of anticipating the arrival of their grandchild, and disbelief at their loss.

Donna said:

It was as bad as it could be and […] I thought it just couldn’t be real, it couldn’t be real.

Where grandparents lived a long way from their child, the loss was even more profound. Distance prevented them from holding their grandchild after birth, attending memorials, or helping their own children.

Iris said:

I still miss her now […] When she was born and they had her in the hospital they would text me and say you know she’s got hair like her daddy […] and they would describe her and how beautiful she was, and that’s all they have, you know […] that’s all I have really.

Grandparents said they wanted to hide their grief to protect their child from pain. This often made them isolated. Their relationships with family members often changed.

Mary said:

It’s like two lots of grief […] but I don’t want it to sound like it’s as bad as my daughter’s loss. It’s different, it’s a different grief, because you’re grieving the loss of a grandchild, and you’re also grieving for your daughter and her loss and it’s like yeah you’ve been kicked in the guts twice instead of once.

What grandparents wanted

Grandparents stressed the importance and ongoing value of being involved in “memory making” and spending time with their stillborn grandchild where possible.

Creating mementos, such as taking photos and making footprints and hand prints, were all important ways of expressing their grief. These mementos kept the baby “alive” in the family. They were also a way to ensure their own child knew the baby was loved and remembered.

Read more: Five ways to help parents cope with the trauma of stillbirth

Our research also identified better ways to support grandparents. Grandparents said that if they knew more about stillbirth, they would be more confident in knowing how to help support their children. And if people were more aware of grandparents’ grief, and acknowledged their loss, this would make it easier for them to get support themselves, and reduce feelings of isolation.

Our research also found families can recognise that grandparents grieve too, for both their child and grandchild. Grandparents can be encouraged to seek support from other family and friends. Families could also encourage grandparents to seek support from professionals if needed.

In hospitals, midwives can adopt some simple, time efficient strategies, with a big impact on grandparents. With parent consent, midwives could include grandparents in memory making activities.

By acknowledging the connection grandparents have to the baby, midwives can validate the grief that they experience. In recognising the supportive role of grandparents, midwives can also provide early guidance about how best to support their child.

Read more: The five stages of grief don’t come in fixed steps – everyone feels differently

Hospitals can help by including grandparents in the education provided after stillbirth. This might include guidance about support for their child, or simply providing grandparents with written resources and guiding them to appropriate supports.

In time, development of peer support programs, where grandparents support others in similar situations, could help.

And, as a community, we can support grandparents the same way they support their own children. We can be there, listen and learn.

All grandparents’ names in this article are pseudonyms.

If this article raises issues for you or someone you know, contact Sands (stillbirth and newborn death support) on 1300 072 637. Sands also has written information specifically for grandparents of stillborn babies.

– ref. When a baby is stillborn, grandparents are hit with ‘two lots of grief’. Here’s how we can help – http://theconversation.com/when-a-baby-is-stillborn-grandparents-are-hit-with-two-lots-of-grief-heres-how-we-can-help-122313

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Zara Bending, Associate, Centre for Environmental Law, Macquarie University

An audacious world-first proposal to protect an extinct species was debated on the global stage last week.

The plan to regulate the trade of woolly mammoth ivory was proposed, but ultimately withdrawn from an international conference on the trade of endangered species.

Instead, delegates agreed to consider the question again in three years, after a study of the effect of the mammoth ivory trade on global ivory markets.

Read more: Could resurrecting mammoths help stop Arctic emissions?

Why protect an extinct species?

The Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) is an international agreement regulating trade in endangered wildlife, signed by 183 countries. Every three years the signatories meet to discuss levels of protection for trade in various animals and their body parts.

The most audacious proposal at this year’s conference, which concluded yesterday in Geneva, was Israel’s suggestion to list the Woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) as a protected species.

Specifically, it aimed to list the woolly mammoth in accordance with the Convention’s “lookalike” provision. Once woolly mammoth ivory is carved into small pieces, it is indistinguishable from elephant ivory without a microscope. The proposal is designed to protect living elephants, by preventing “laundering” or mislabelling of illegal elephant ivory.

Had it passed, it would have been the first time an extinct species has been listed to save its modern-day cousins. Most populations of woolly mammoths went extinct after the last ice age, 10,000-40,000 years ago.

Wait, you can trade mammoth ivory?

The trade in woolly mammoth tusks lies at the convergence of Earth’s environmental crises.

As the climate crisis melts permafrost in the Siberian tundra, preserved mammoths bearing tusks as large as 4.2m long (weighing as much as 84kg) have been unearthed for the first time in millennia.

International trade in mammoth ivory is not illegal (except for import to India under domestic legislation), and the domestic trade of Woolly mammoth ivory is not banned by most countries.

While poorly documented, the main trade route for tusks is thought to be from Russia to Hong Kong and then mainland China for processing.

Imports to Hong Kong have increased dramatically from fewer than 9 tonnes per year from 2000 to 2003 to an average of 31 tonnes per year from 2007 to 2013. Similarly, one survey found a fourfold increase in mammoth ivory sales in Macau between 2004 and 2015.

Read more: It’s time to break the deadlock over Africa’s ivory trade: here’s how

It’s not all mammoth

While some of this mammoth trade is legitimate, plenty of traders are passing elephant ivory off as mammoth. Research has found that, while it’s very hard to tell how much of the legal mammoth trade is actually (illegal) elephant ivory, tighter regulation may reduce opportunities for the laundering of elephant ivory.

The proposal would not ban trade altogether, but would require an exporting country to prove that specimens are mammoth ivory to get a permit.

Ivory laundering goes the other way as well. Grade A mammoth ivory can be carved and passed off as elephant ivory trinkets and enter the illegal wildlife trade.

The illegal wildlife trade claims the lives of 20,000-50,000 elephants annually and is the second greatest direct threat to species survival.

Is it woolly thinking?

The new proposal was not without its detractors. Some “ice ivory” sellers and carvers argue mammoth ivory should be promoted as an alternative to elephant ivory to meet market demand without poaching. Others maintain extinct species should be regulated by the laws and codes observed by the global antiquities trade.

While Israel has not taken positions on these points, the move would be in line with other global efforts to stem the tide of organised crime syndicates profiting from the illegal wildlife trade.

My own research, along with government inquiries around the world, has found legal markets in ivory, regardless of origin, can and will be exploited as conduits for illegal trade.

Further, a recent analysis of the global online antiquities market found dealers and buyers have resoundingly poor legal literacy. Ethical dealer behaviour is highly inconsistent.

Read more: To save the African elephant, focus must turn to poverty and corruption

A solution put on ice

If it had passed, this proposal would have been a landmark achievement in the protection of elephants. Instead, Israel’s delegates ultimately withdrew the motion, in the face of vehement opposition from Russia, which is the primary exporter of mammoth ivory.

Delegates from Canada, the United States of America and the European Union said there was insufficient evidence to support the change. The various parties agreed to support a study into the mammoth ivory trade as a compromise, and Israeli delegates are hopeful the findings will reopen discussion at the next conference, three years from now.

– ref. Why we need to protect the extinct woolly mammoth – http://theconversation.com/why-we-need-to-protect-the-extinct-woolly-mammoth-122256

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ann Elias, Associate Professor, Department of Art History, University of Sydney

Australia’s celebrated explorer, photographer and filmmaker, Frank Hurley (1885-1962), announced in the Sydney Sun newspaper in 1926 that “there is little new to be seen on the surface of the globe these days, but the sea-floor opens up limitless avenues to our inquisitiveness”.

Sensing an exciting and profitable future working with the underwater frontier, Hurley had set out six years earlier on expeditions to the Great Barrier Reef, the Torres Strait, and Papua, hoping to secure photographs of the tropical seafloor.

In the 1920s, the oceans were known as sublime and formidable. To explorers they promised the thrill of an unexplored region of the planet. Moreover, in the 1920s, undersea photographs were new to the public. Few had photographed the undersea, an exception being Louis Boutan (1859-1934).

Adventurous and inquisitive, Hurley had undertaken expeditions to Antarctica including as official photographer for the Ernest Shackleton Imperial Trans-Antarctic Expedition (1914-1917), where he experienced the vast and frozen Antarctic seas. As official war photographer, Hurley had photographed the battlefields of the first world war. His photographs of exploration and war define the limits of human endurance.

Hurley’s diaries show how in 1920, he began planning a trip to the warm and colourful Great Barrier Reef. His intention was to secure iconic footage of exotic peoples and places for a travelogue movie. It was eventually released in 1921 as Pearls and Savages.

In 1920, as Hurley travelled by ship past the coral reefs of the Australian east coast, the Torres Strait, and the reefs of Papua, he observed

shoals of electric blue, brilliant & dazzling. There were red fish & others striped with yellow & gold – colors so diverse & blended in such remarkable harmony and in such vast number that one fell entranced [as if] gazing into the magic splendours of a wild morphic dream.

Hurley then returned in 1922 for a second expedition with Allan McCulloch, a fish specialist at the Australian Museum. He was determined to photograph the seafloor.

But in the days before scuba technology, the undersea was largely inaccessible for photographers. In 1922, at Port Moresby, Hurley had an aquarium built.

Figure 1 shows Hurley seated beside McCulloch surrounded by the Papuan crew who carried their equipment and navigated the sea. They are relaxing on the shores of Dauko Island off the coast of Port Moresby, and in the background is the aquarium.

Slime

With an aquarium, Hurley could film and photograph corals and tropical fish at eye level and simulate the effect of being underwater. But something unforeseen went wrong with the aquarium. The corals and fish died and emitted a mucus that interfered with Hurley’s effort to obtain crystal clear images.

Indigenous assistants were sent to the reef to collect more fish and corals for the aquarium. Again and again, the fish died, and the corals made the water cloudy. Hurley and McCulloch became increasingly frustrated by coral “slime” that spoilt the picture (See the image in Figure 2, above.)

Hurley’s diaries describe how the aquarium was continually emptied and refilled with fresh stock. Eventually he and McCulloch scraped away the troublesome living animals from the limestone branches and took photographs of coral skeletons (see the image below).

Read more: Bleaching has struck the southernmost coral reef in the world

Coral bleaching

Hurley set out in search of tropical coral reefs, and through the expanding mass media of the 1920s, which included films and illustrated magazines, he planned to turn the beauty of reefs into a modern spectacle. He would circulate the images worldwide to people who had never seen the floor of the sea.

The above photo, for example, was published in the Illustrated London News in 1924 where Hurley was described as a “picture sorcerer in Papua”; a magician of visual images.

But the story of Hurley and the aquarium also belongs to something American historian Lynn White Jr in 1967 called “the historical roots of our ecological crisis”.

The corals in the aquarium died as a result of raised water temperatures from the sun, from the impact of silt and depletion of oxygen in the water, and from overcrowding.

Read more: What we have in common with corals and their unexplored microbial world

The corals in Figure 2 are seen expelling zooxanthellae, algae they normally live symbiotically with, which are responsible for the beautiful colours of some corals. But in times of stress, the algae are released in a process known as “coral bleaching”.

In 1922, when very little was understood about human impact on coral reefs, Hurley had unwittingly come face to face with the future of the region including the Great Barrier Reef.

However, at that time, no-one thought that within 100 years their actions would make seawater temperatures rise, climates change, and coral reefs face extinction.

– ref. How pioneering photographer Frank Hurley came face to face with the future of the Great Barrier Reef in 1922 – http://theconversation.com/how-pioneering-photographer-frank-hurley-came-face-to-face-with-the-future-of-the-great-barrier-reef-in-1922-122395

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The Morrison government is setting up a University Foreign Interference Taskforce, as it grapples with encroachments by China into Australia’s higher education sector.

The taskforce, to be announced in a Wednesday National Press Club address by Education Minister Dan Tehan, will have members from universities, national security agencies and the federal education department.

Representation will be on a fifty fifty basis between the university sector and the government. Tehan says in his speech, extracts of which were released ahead of delivery, that this will provide “a perspective of the sector’s unique position partnered with frank advice from our government”.

There has been mounting concern over a range of foreign interference issues affecting the sector. These include China targeting sensitive research for non-transparent transfer of technology; the apparent inability of some universities to be fully aware of the nature of the Chinese institutions they are dealing with; the Chinese government’s grooming of some Australian student organisations; the use of Chinese money for soft propaganda; and the cyber penetration of university systems to obtain research intellectual property and as well as personal details.

Read more: University China centres are vulnerable to vested interests because of a lack of funding

The taskforce will have a wide remit, with Tehan outlining its work in four key areas.

• A cyber security working group “will ensure our ecosystem is resilient to unauthorised access, manipulation, disruption or damage”. It will help “better manage and protect our networks, as well as detect and respond to cyber security incidents”

• A research and intellectual property group is to “protect against deception, undue influence, unauthorised disclosure or disruption to our research, intellectual property and research community, while also protecting academic freedom”

• A foreign collaboration group will have the task of making sure “collaboration with foreign entities will be transparent” and not harm Australia’s interests

• A culture and communication group is to “foster a positive security culture” by engaging with government and the community to “increase awareness and improve research and cyber resilience”.

Read more: Australian universities must wake up to the risks of researchers linked to China’s military

Tehan will also announce the government wants questions relating to freedom of speech included in the Quality Indicators for Learning and Teaching, which is survey data that includes student feedback about higher education.

“I will work with the sector on what questions to ask to measure diversity of opinion on campus and whether students feel empowered to voice non-conformist opinions,” he says.

“I ask the sector to also seek the views of their staff on this matter, and I will work with the sector to develop a set of uniform questions to ask.

“I believe universities want to know if students and staff are afraid to discuss certain topics.

“It is only through diversity of thinking, perspective and intellectual style that we get innovation and problem solving,” Tehan says in his speech.

Tehan will also release the results from an inquiry done by former Victorian Liberal premier Denis Napthine for a strategy for regional, rural and remote education. Its recommendations include improving access for students from these areas to financial support, to enhance fairness and more equal opportunity.

– ref. Government boosts scrutiny over Chinese targeting of university sector – http://theconversation.com/government-boosts-scrutiny-over-chinese-targeting-of-university-sector-122484

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Danielle Ireland-Piper, Associate Professor of Constitutional and International Law, Bond University

NASA is reportedly investigating what could be the first ever alleged crime in space. Astronaut Anne McClain has been accused of accessing her estranged spouse’s bank account via the internet while on board the International Space Station (she denies the accusation).

This gives rise to the question: what criminal law, if any, applies in outer space? The short answer is that, for a US astronaut aboard the International Space Station with a US alleged victim, US criminal jurisdiction applies.

The long answer is more complicated, and set to become even more so with the advent of space tourism, space militarisation, and commercial activity. Human activity has increased in space, with at least 50 nations currently engaged in space activities.

Read more: We need clear rules to avoid a real Star Wars in outer space

Space, like the high seas, is considered res communis – it belongs to everyone and to no one, nor can any country lay claim to it.

But that doesn’t mean the high seas and outer space are free from national laws. International law allows countries to assert jurisdiction outside their territory in several ways, including via the nationality principle, which covers crimes committed by a country’s citizens outside its borders, and the universality principle, which allows countries to prosecute anyone for serious crimes against international law, such as piracy.

So far there are no pirates in space, outside the realms of science fiction at least.

Space is governed by five key international treaties, known informally as the Outer Space Treaty, the Rescue Agreement, the Liability Convention, the Registration Convention, and the Moon Agreement (their formal names are much, much longer). All are under the auspices of the delightfully named United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs.

The Outer Space Treaty is one of the most relevant when it comes to dealing with alleged crimes in space.

Broadly, the treaty requires the exploration and use of outer space to be free, in the interests of all countries, and not subject to any claim of national sovereignty. The Moon and other bodies are to be used only for peaceful purposes. Nations are responsible for national space activities and are liable for damage caused by their space objects.

As for the question of who prosecutes space crimes, the short answer is that a spacefaring criminal would generally be subject to the law of the country of which they are a citizen, or the country aboard whose registered spacecraft the crime was committed, because the treaty grants that country authority “over any personnel thereof”.

However, the term “personnel” is not defined, and this raises questions as to what the case might be for private citizens such as, for example, an Australian space tourist flying aboard a US-registered spacecraft.

Far from home, far from simple

The International Space Station (ISS) in fact has its own intergovernmental agreement, signed by the project’s partner nations, that makes express provision for nationality-based jurisdiction over crime. It says:

Canada, the European Partner States, Japan, Russia, and the United States may exercise criminal jurisdiction over personnel in or on any flight element who are their respective nationals.

As McClain is reportedly a US citizen, this means US criminal law will apply to her conduct. This is also known as “active-nationality” jurisdiction. This is made simpler by the fact that her alleged victim is also a US national.

If the victim of a crime committed on the ISS was a citizen of a different partner nation, and if the US did not provide assurance it would prosecute the perpetrator, that other nation’s criminal law would apply. This is known as “passive nationality” jurisdiction. There is also a possibility that if the crime took place in a partner nation’s section of the space station, its criminal law may apply.

For other space flights not on board the ISS, things potentially get more complicated still, for several reasons.

The treaty framework on criminal law in space relies heavily on nationality. This makes the situation more complicated if an alleged criminal is a dual citizen.

Since 2001, when Dennis Tito became the first space tourist, a total of just seven private citizens have paid to go to space. But Virgin Galactic promises “a regular schedule of spaceflights for private individuals and researchers” in the future.

Future space tourists are unlikely to be aboard the ISS, so that agreement won’t apply. It is most likely that the criminal law of the country of registration of the space plane would apply, but this could be problematic if the countries whose citizens are on board also attempt to claim jurisdiction.

Read more: From tourism to terrorists, fast-moving space industries create new ethical challenges

Another issue is the question of where space even begins. Earth’s atmosphere does not have a solid boundary, which makes it hard to determine whether air law or space law should apply at a given altitude, and whether space-bound flights can be deemed to have violated another country’s air space.

Finally, for really serious crimes such as genocide, crimes against humanity, or war crimes, the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court may also extend into outer space. While some people already see space as a military arena, we can only hope this theoretical jurisdiction is never applied in practice.

– ref. Star laws: what happens if you commit a crime in space? – http://theconversation.com/star-laws-what-happens-if-you-commit-a-crime-in-space-122456

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Leach, Associate Professor, Politics & Public Policy, Swinburne University of Technology

On August 30, Timor-Leste will celebrate the referendum that gave it independence from Indonesia. For the people of this small island, it has been a long battle – and one that continues today. You can read our companion story on the island nation’s struggle for independence here.

This Friday marks the 20-year anniversary of the day the East Timorese people voted overwhelmingly for independence from Indonesia after a 24-year occupation.

Another significant anniversary comes next month, on September 20. That was the day of the arrival of the INTERFET mission, the Australian-led multinational force that brought an end to the violence that wracked Timor-Leste after the independence vote.

In the intervening three weeks, 1,500 Timorese were killed in the violence, which had been orchestrated by the Indonesian military and its proxy militias. Over 250,000 were forcibly displaced to West Timor and some 80% of the infrastructure was destroyed.

Many Australians are rightly proud of their contribution to Timor-Leste’s independence, which served as an historical corrective to Australia’s longstanding support for Indonesian’s invasion and forced integration of East Timor in 1975-76. The more than 5,000 Australian soldiers in the INTERFET mission marked the nation’s largest military deployment since the Vietnam War.

Yet despite the goodwill the mission engendered in Timor-Leste for the Australian people, relations between the two nations have repeatedly been undermined by contentious negotiations over control of the lucrative oil and gas fields that lie in the Timor Sea.

Read more: Australia and Timor Leste settle maritime boundary after 45 years of bickering

As Prime Minister Scott Morrison prepares to travel to Dili for the anniversary this week, Australia-Timor-Leste relations finally seem to be back on track.

A treaty signed last March created a permanent maritime boundaries between the two states for the first time. This border is widely expected to come into force this week following its ratification by both parliaments – another momentous milestone in Timor-Leste’s young history.

Conflict over oil and gas

Since its independence, Timor-Leste’s relations with Australia have been overshadowed by one major factor: the oil and gas fields on its contested maritime border.

Relations hit rocky waters in 2012 when Timor-Leste challenged the Treaty on Certain Maritime Arrangements in the Timor Sea (CMATS), which had been signed by the two countries in 2006. This treaty had established a 50-year moratorium on maritime boundary negotiations, or five years after exploitation of the Greater Sunrise gas field ended, whichever occurred first.

Allegations then emerged in 2013 from a former ASIS agent (now known as Witness K) that Australia had spied on Timorese officials during the negotiations over the CMATS treaty. This led Timor-Leste to launch a case in The Hague challenging the treaty for want of good faith.

Australia was embarrassed by the exposure, but determined to maintain the countries’ ongoing treaty arrangements and focus instead on revenue-sharing agreements. However, Timor-Leste argued that the bulk of the oil and gas fields in the Timor Sea would lie on their side of a median line and pushed for a permanent boundary to be drawn between the countries.

Read more: Australia and Timor Leste reach a deal on the Timor Sea – but much remains unknown

As relations deteriorated, ministerial visits ceased for almost five years.

Because Australia had abandoned the international courts as a means of resolving the maritime boundary in 2002, Timor-Leste had only one option left. In 2016, it pioneered the use of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) compulsory conciliation process: a non-binding but mandatory mediation between nations on maritime disputes.

The conciliation panel of five judges found the CMATS treaty’s moratorium on defining a maritime boundary was invalid. This dealt a fatal blow to decades of Australian foreign policy focused on maintaining its continental shelf claim in the Timor Gap in line with the 1972 Australia-Indonesia border treaty.

Australia could have attempted to tough it out since the tribunal’s finding was non-binding. But by this point, the Labor opposition was arguing the maritime boundary with Timor-Leste should be renegotiated in line with international law, putting additional pressure on the government to resolve the dispute.

A separate dispute over China’s claims in the South China Sea, also settled in 2016, made Australia’s position increasingly untenable, as well. The world was urging China to respect an international tribunal’s maritime ruling, so it would be difficult for Australia not to do the same.

A new boundary finally set in the sea

Once the UNCLOS opening decision came down, the two sides began negotiating a border in good faith. Timor-Leste dropped its espionage case against Australia in the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, and later terminated the CMATS treaty, without Australian objection.

Announcement of the new maritime border treaty followed in March 2018. It was a major diplomatic breakthrough and soon led to the resumption of ministerial visits.

The treaty created a median-line boundary in the former Timor Gap, placing the wells in the former Joint Petroleum Development Area (JPDA) in Timor-Leste’s sovereign waters.

The Timorese believe there is another A$1.5 billion of oil reserves in this area, but as these fields near the end of their life, the greater game lies in the as-yet-untapped Greater Sunrise field. This field straddles the eastern side of the new boundary and is believed to be worth in excess of US$40 billion.

Timor-Leste also achieved a major increase in royalties from the future development of this field, up from 50% under the CMATS treaty to 70-80%, depending on whether the pipeline eventually goes to Timor or Darwin.

Read more: For Timor-Leste, another election and hopes for an end to crippling deadlock

China’s potential role in development

Since then, Timor-Leste’s focus has shifted to negotiations with its commercial partners over its ambitious plans for the Tasi Mane oil and gas megaproject on its southern coast.

This project could bring additional challenges for the relationship with Australia. The East Timorese government estimates that external financing will provide some 80% of the estimated US$10.5-12 billion funding for the project. And Timor-Leste’s ambassador to Australia has already stated that if funding partners cannot be found among Timor-Leste’s friends in Australia, the United States, Japan or South Korea, then Chinese capital would be a clear alternative.

Timor-Leste has rejected reports that China’s Exim bank offered a A$16 billion loan to finance the megaproject, though it acknowledges both countries have expressed willingness to cooperate over the separate development of Timor-Leste’s petrochemical industry.

It is also notable that China this month donated some US$3-5 million in defence materiel requested by the Timorese government.

Even though China might be seen as a logical partner for developing Timor-Leste’s oil and gas processing capabilities, Beijing’s involvement would certainly complicate relations with Australia.

Timor-Leste has generally sought to balance its relationships with key regional powers, in part to prevent the dominant influence of any single nation. The country’s foreign minister recently emphasised that discussions on the Tasi Mane project are ongoing with potential partners in Australia, the US, Europe and Asia.

Remaining obstacles to closer ties

Despite the major improvement in bilateral ties between the two countries, there are some remaining points of contention.

The prosecutions of Witness K and his lawyer Bernard Collaery in the espionage whistleblower case have been criticised by former Timor-Leste leaders Xanana Gusmão and Jose Ramos-Horta. This week, Gusmão indicated he would appear as a witness to give evidence on behalf of the two, raising the potential for further embarrassment for Australia.

Some political activists in both Australia and Timor-Leste have also called for Canberra to pay back oil and gas revenues it has received from the JPDA since the border treaty was signed in 2018, and accused Australia of delays in ratification.

While these accusations have made headlines, Timor-Leste’s parliament had not ratified the treaty either until last month. In any case, Timorese NGOs point to the far larger question of up to US$5 billion in revenues that Australia has received dating back to 2002, when revenue-sharing agreements began.

But it appears there is no appetite in either country to consider repayment of historical royalties.

As Australia and Timor-Leste prepare to celebrate the anniversary of the independence referendum – as well as the recent restoration of good bilateral relations – it’s worth keeping in mind that new hurdles potentially lie ahead, with implications for the wider region.

– ref. After a border dispute and spying scandal, can Australia and Timor-Leste be good neighbours? – http://theconversation.com/after-a-border-dispute-and-spying-scandal-can-australia-and-timor-leste-be-good-neighbours-121553

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sara Niner, Lecturer and Researcher, School of Social Sciences, Monash University

On August 30, Timor-Leste will celebrate the referendum that gave it independence from Indonesia. For the people of this small island, it has been a long battle – one that continues today. You can read our companion story on the island nation’s vexed relationship with Australia here.

Indigenous myth attributes the high mountain chain that runs like a spine down the centre of the crocodile-shaped island of Timor to Mother Earth’s dying movements when she retreated underground. This mountain chain is more pronounced in the east, in the territory of Timor-Leste, and often protrudes directly down into the sea along the rugged northern coast.

The island is also surrounded by significant waters. To the south are the vast and disputed oil reserves. To the north is a deep exchange pathway for warm water moving from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, creating conditions for a major “cetacean migration” highway for 24 different species of whale and dolphin.

Read more: For Timor-Leste, another election and hopes for an end to crippling deadlock

In 1944, the anthropologist Mendes Correa described the Portuguese colony of Timor as a “Babel … a melting pot”, and a diverse mix of traditions is still strongly felt today.

The island is a bridge between the Malay and Melanesian world and has as much in common with Pacific Island cultures as Indonesia. The diverse indigenous societies cross the spectrum of matriarchal and patriarchal organisation.

Women are accorded a sacred status within Timorese cosmology and the divine female element is prominent in much indigenous belief. Female spirits dominate the sacred world, while men dominate the secular world. So, while women may hold power in a ritual context, they generally do not have a strong public or political voice. But they are fighting to change this and now make up a third of members in the national parliament.

By the early 16th century, Portuguese colonisers arrived in the Spice Islands of which Timor was part. This was the beginning of a colonial relationship now 500 years old.

Revolts by Timorese against Portuguese rule were frequent and bloody. Famous Timorese rebel Dom Boaventura lost an armed uprising against his Portuguese colonisers in 1911, leaving East Timor to be ruled directly from Portugal by the fascist dictatorship of Salazar for most of the 20th century.

The marginal colony remained neglected and closeted from any modern liberalising trends. But in the early 1970s the Timorese independence movement Fretilin, partly inspired by Dom Boaventura, began to oppose Portuguese colonialism, while developing a revolutionary program that included the emancipation of women.

Rosa “Muki” Bonaparte was one of the founders of the nationalist movement and the leader of its women’s organisation. While Bonaparte participated directly in the struggle against colonialism, she also stood against “the violent discrimination that Timorese women had suffered in colonial society”.

Read more: Australia and Timor Leste settle maritime boundary after 45 years of bickering

After the colonial regime collapsed in 1974, a three-week civil war, secretly manipulated by Indonesian military agents, was the precursor to the larger war and invasion to come.

The victors of the civil war, Fretilin, reconstituted the faction of loyal Timorese soldiers serving in the Portuguese Army as resistance army Falintil. This army, and the civilian resistance, countered the massive and brutal attack of US-and-Australian-backed Indonesian military for 24 years. The horrors were kept as secret as possible, even to the point of covering up the deaths of those trying to report them, such as the “Balibo 5”.

After the Indonesian invasion of December 7 1975, much of the population of East Timor retreated to the mountains, with the resistance living in free zones for the next three years.

However, in November 1978, the Indonesian campaign of annihilation finally encircled the remaining resistance leadership and 140,000 civilians on Mount Matebian, in the east of the island. Most surrendered. They were placed in prisons and “resettlement camps” where many slowly starved to death. The violence of the 24-year Indonesian occupation affected and traumatised the whole of Timorese society.

After the collapse of the Suharto dictatorship in Indonesia in 1998, President B.J. Habibie agreed to let the Timorese decide their future in a ballot. In his honour, they recently named a bridge after him.

Timor’s pre-eminent leader, Xanana Gusmao, was the key negotiator with UN representatives. He conducted negotiations from his prison house in Jakarta where he’d been since 1992, serving a 20-year sentence for fighting Indonesian forces in his homeland. He persevered with ballot preparations despite growing Indonesian military and militia violence.

In the August 30 1999 referendum, nearly 80% of East Timorese voted for independence by indicating the blue and green National Council of Timorese Resistance (CNRT) flag on the ballot paper.

Extensive military and militia slayings followed the announcement of the vote. An estimated 1500 East Timorese were killed and more than 250,000 forcibly displaced into Indonesia. About 80% of infrastructure was destroyed. Survivors struggled to feed and look after their families while recovering psychologically from the mayhem.

Stories from the resistance period and 1999 are constantly remembered in Timor-Leste and are hugely significant in the new society. A hierarchy based on past service to the resistance has been established. Pensions and payments to male veterans are one of the biggest expenses for the government.

Anthropologists have described an indigenous belief that those who fought and sacrificed “purchased” the nation with their own lives and are owed a living.

Along with celebration there will be much reflection in Timor in the next weeks about the last 20 years of building a nation from “zero” and the 24 years of struggle that came before that. It will consider what they have achieved and what still needs to be done.

Hopefully, Timor-Leste can build a free and fair future for the over 1 million citizens, 60% of them under 18. They include many inspiring, educated young leaders who are ready to take up the responsibility.

As we watch and cheer from the sidelines, we hope for a less eventful and more peaceful future for all Timorese.

– ref. Twenty years after independence, Timor-Leste continues its epic struggle – http://theconversation.com/twenty-years-after-independence-timor-leste-continues-its-epic-struggle-121631

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Collins, Professor in Nutrition and Dietetics, University of Newcastle

Every year a new batch of diets become trendy. In the past, the blood group, ketogenic, Pioppi and gluten-free diets were among the most popular. These have made way for the mono diet, charcoal detox, Noom, time-restricted feeding and Fast800.

So what are these new diets and is there any scientific evidence to support them?

Read more: Health Check: six tips for losing weight without fad diets

1. Mono diet

The monotrophic or mono diet limits food intake to just one food group such as meat or fruit, or one individual food like potato or chicken, each day.

The mono diet has no scientific basis and no research has been done on it. It’s definitely a fad and should not be followed.

It leads to weight loss because your food intake is so limited (one food per day) that you get sick of that food very quickly and so automatically achieve a reduced kilojoule intake.

If you ate three apples at each main meal and had another three as between-meal snacks then your total kilojoule intake from the 12 apples would be about 4,000 kilojoules (950 calories).

The mono diet is nutritionally inadequate. The nutrients most deficient will depend on the individual foods consumed, but if you follow the mono diet long term, you would eventually develop vitamin and mineral deficiencies.

2. Charcoal detox

The charcoal detox diet claims to help people lose weight by “detoxing” them. It involves periods of fasting and consumption of tea or juice drinks that contain charcoal.

It is definitely not recommended.

Medical professionals use activated charcoal to treat patients who have been poisoned or have overdosed on specific medications. Charcoal can bind to some compounds and remove them from the body.

There is no scientific evidence to support the use of charcoal as a weight loss strategy.

Read more: Five supplements that claim to speed up weight loss – and what the science says

Charcoal detox plans also include dietary restrictions or fasts, so people might lose weight because they’re consuming fewer kilojoules.

Charcoal is not selective. It can bind to some medications and nutrients, as well as toxic substances, so there is the potential for charcoal to trigger nutrient deficiencies and/or make some medications less effective.

Side-effects of using charcoal include nausea and constipation.

3. Noom diet

The Noom diet isn’t actually a diet at all. It is a smartphone app called Noom Coach that focuses on behaviour change techniques to assist with weight loss. It allows users to monitor their eating and physical activity, and provides support and feedback.

The Noom diet does not provide a diet plan, but it gets users to record within the app, all foods and drinks consumed. It then uses a traffic light system (red, yellow, green) to indicate how healthy the foods are.

One advantage of Noom is that is doesn’t eliminate any foods or food groups, and it encourages healthy lifestyle behaviour change to assist with weight loss.

A disadvantage is that while you can download the app for a free short-term trial, membership is about A$50 per month for four months. And additional services cost extra. So consider whether this approach suits your budget.

One study has examined the app’s effectiveness. In a cohort of 35,921 Noom app users over 18 months, almost 78% reported a reduction in body weight. About 23% of these people reported losing more than 10% of their body weight.

Read more: Health Check: should you weigh yourself regularly?

Although the data are observational and don’t compare Noom app users to a control group, the results are promising.

In other weight-loss interventions in adults at risk of developing type 2 diabetes, researchers found losing 5-10% body weight and being active for about 30 minutes a day lowered the risk of developing type 2 diabetes by more than 50%.

4. Time-restricted feeding

Time-restricted feeding is a type of intermittent fast that involves restricting the time of day that you are “allowed” to eat. This typically means eating in a window lasting four to ten hours.

While energy-restriction during this period is not a specific recommendation, it happens as a consequence of eating only during a shorter period of time than usual.

The difference between time-restricted feeding compared to other intermittent fasting strategies is that recent research suggests some metabolic benefits are initiated following a fasting period that lasts for 16 hours, as opposed to a typical overnight fast of ten to 12 hours.

Read more: Health Check: what’s the best diet for weight loss?

Researchers have reported some promising effects on the amount of body fat, insulin sensitivity and blood cholesterol with time-restricted feeding windows, although some studies have reported benefits for weight but not for fat mass, blood cholesterol or markers of type 2 diabetes risk.

Further research is required to determine whether any health effects of time-restricted feeding are due to regular 16-hour fasting periods, or simply because eating over a small time window reduces energy intake.

If this approach helps you get started on a healthy lifestyle and your GP gives you the all clear, then try it. You will need to follow up with some permanent changes to your lifestyle so your food and physical activity patterns are improved in the long term.

5. Fast800

The Fast800 diet by Dr Michael Mosley encourages a daily intake of just 800 calories (about 3,350 kilojoules) during the initial intensive phase of the Blood Sugar Diet.

This lasts for up to eight weeks and is supposed to help you rapidly lose weight and improve your blood sugar levels. You can buy the book for about A$20 or pay A$175 for a 12-week online program that says it includes a personal assessment, recipes, physical and mindfulness exercises, tools, access to experts, an online community, information for your doctor and advice for long-term healthy living.

Two recent studies provide some evidence that supports these claims: the DiRECT and DROPLET trials.

In these studies, GPs prescribed patients who were obese and/or had type 2 diabetes an initial diet of 800 calories, using formulated meal replacements. This initial phase was followed by a gradual reintroduction of food. Participants also received structured support to help them maintain the weight loss.

Both studies compared the intervention to a control group who received either usual care or treatment using best practice guidelines.

They found participants in the 800 calorie groups lost more weight and more of the adults with type 2 diabetes achieved remission than the control groups.

This is what you would expect, given the intervention was very intensive and included a very low total daily energy intake.

But the low energy intake can make the Fast800 difficult to stick to. It can also be challenging to get enough nutrients, so protocols need to be carefully followed and any recommended nutrient supplements taken.

Read more: What are ‘fasting’ diets and do they help you lose weight?

Fast800 is not suitable for people with a history of eating disorders or health conditions such as liver disease. So if you’re considering it, talk to your GP.

When it comes to weight loss, there are no magic tricks that guarantee success. Have a health check up with your GP, focus on making healthy lifestyle changes and if you need more support, ask to be referred to an accredited practising dietitian.

If you would like to learn more about weight loss, you can enrol in our free online course The Science of Weight Loss – Dispelling Diet Myths.

– ref. The science behind diet trends like mono, charcoal detox, Noom and Fast800 – http://theconversation.com/the-science-behind-diet-trends-like-mono-charcoal-detox-noom-and-fast800-120080

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Catherine Leining, Policy Fellow, Climate Change, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research

Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change.

If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz

Would you please explain how the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) works in simple terms? Who pays and where does the money go?

Every tonne of emissions causes damages and a cost to society. In traditional market transactions, these costs are ignored. Putting a price on emissions forces us to face at least some of the cost of the emissions associated with what we produce and consume, and it influences us to choose lower-emission options.

An emissions trading scheme (ETS) is a tool that puts a quantity limit and a price on emissions. Its “currency” is emission units issued by the government. Each unit is like a voucher that allows the holder to emit one tonne of greenhouse gases.

The New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS) is the government’s main tool to meet our target under the Paris Agreement. In a typical ETS, the government caps the number of units in line with its emissions target and the trading market sets the corresponding emission price.

In New Zealand, the price for a tonne of greenhouse gases is currently slightly below NZ$25, which is not in line with our target. We are still waiting for the government to set a cap on the NZ ETS, which is (hopefully) coming.

Read more: Why NZ’s emissions trading scheme should have an auction reserve price

In the past, we had no limit on the number of emission units in the system, which is why emission prices stayed low, our domestic emissions continued to rise, and the system accumulated a substantial number of banked units.

How an ETS works and who pays

The government decides which entities (typically companies) in each sector (e.g. fossil fuel producers and importers, industrial producers, foresters, and landfill operators) will be liable for their emissions. In some cases (e.g. fossil fuel producers and importers), liable entities are not the actual emitters but they are responsible for the emissions generated when others use their products.

There is a trading market where entities can buy units to cover their emissions liability and sell units they don’t need. The trading price depends on market expectations for supply versus demand. Steeper targets mean lower supply and higher emissions mean higher demand; both mean higher emission prices and more behaviour change.

Each liable entity is required to report emissions and surrender to the government enough units to cover the amount of greenhouse gases they release. The companies that have to surrender units pass on the associated cost to their customers, like any other production cost. In this way, the emission price signal flows across the economy embedded in the cost of goods and services, influencing everyone to make more climate-friendly choices.

There are several ways for entities to get units.

First, some get free allocation from the government. Currently, these free allocations are granted to trade-exposed industrial producers (for products such as steel, aluminium, methanol, cement and fertiliser) as a way of preventing the production and associated emissions from shifting to other countries without reducing global emissions. Producers who emit beyond their free allocation need to buy more units, whereas those who improve their processes and emit less can sell or bank their excess units.

Second, entities can earn units by establishing new forests or through industrial activities that remove emissions. By stripping emissions from the atmosphere, such removal activities make it possible to add units to the cap without increasing net emissions. The government publishes information on ETS emissions and removals every year.

Third, entities can buy units from the government through auctioning. In this case, market demand still sets the price. The NZ ETS does not yet have auctioning, but again this is (hopefully) coming. The government currently does allow emitters to buy uncapped fixed-price units at NZ$25.

In the past, entities had a fourth option – buying offshore units – but this stopped in mid-2015. This option is not currently available under the Paris Agreement. If that changes in the future, quantity and quality limits will be needed on offshore units.

Read more: New Zealand poised to introduce clean car standards and incentives to cut emissions

Where the money goes

The entities that surrender units to the government directly face the price of emissions – either because they had to buy units from other entities or the government, or because they lost the opportunity to sell freely allocated units.

When the government sells units – through auctioning or the fixed-price mechanism – it earns revenue. In 2018, the New Zealand government sold 16.82 million fixed-price units and received NZ$420 million in revenue. When selling fixed-price units that allow the market to emit more, the government has to compensate through more action to reduce domestic emissions (like reducing fossil fuel use or planting more trees) or purchasing emission reductions from other countries – and these actions have a cost.

When ETS auctioning is introduced (potentially in late 2020), the government will receive more significant revenue. It has signalled that any revenue from pricing agricultural emissions (methane and nitrous oxide) will be returned to the sector to help with a transition to lower emissions.

What will happen with NZ ETS auction revenue from other sectors is an open policy question. So are the questions of how large the NZ ETS cap, and how high the emission price, should be. This will be determined under the Zero Carbon Bill and future amendments and regulations to the ETS.

This article was prepared in collaboration with Bronwyn Bruce-Brand and Ceridwyn Roberts at Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.

– ref. Climate explained: how emissions trading schemes work and they can help us shift to a zero carbon future – http://theconversation.com/climate-explained-how-emissions-trading-schemes-work-and-they-can-help-us-shift-to-a-zero-carbon-future-122325

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tebeje Molla, Research Fellow, Deakin University

In the past 30 years, Australia has settled thousands of African refugees. But many arrived here at a young age and with low educational attainment. That presents challenges in trying to encourage more to participate in higher education.

High educational attainment is an important factor for employment and social integration of refugee youth.

Yet only about 10% of young people from the main countries of origin of African refugees go to university within five years of arrival. That trend has not changed much in the past 25 years.

For those who do enter higher education, completion is a serious challenge. In the past 17 years, only one in five African refugee students completed their undergraduate course.

Read more: Better pay and more challenge: here’s how to get our top students to become teachers

Nationally, just under half (46%) of domestic students who commenced undergraduate university courses in 2009 completed their degrees in four years. When the cohort length increases to nine years, the completion rate is three quaters (74%) of students.

The challenge for young refugees

So given only a small portion of young African refugees go to university here, and very few of those successfully completed their degrees, what are the factors underpinning this predicament?

Many African refugees arrived in Australia with interrupted educational experiences. They may have endured the trauma of war, violence and family separation. These negative effects of forced displacement can inhibit them from taking full advantage of educational opportunities.

In the early stage of their settlement, young African refugees faced informational barriers in relation to available educational options and accessing financial support. In exploring pathways to university, they have a limited social network to rely on.

Most African refugees come from non-English speaking countries and limited English language proficiency is a stumbling block. Fragmented educational histories also mean they enter the Australian education system with limited academic skills.

Black African youth face explicit racism in educational institutions and public spaces. Experiences of racism cause stress that can negatively affect academic engagement. Studies in social psychology show the stress of racial bias hinders learning.

As a result of the combined effects of the above issues, young refugees often get low school results, so many fail to meet entrance requirements of most universities. Institutions that attract low-ATAR students may not have sufficient resources to run effective enabling programs such as courses for academic skills development.

High expectations

Most African parents hold high expectations for their children’s academic achievement.

But career educators in selected secondary schools in Melbourne have told me there often exists a significant gap between what parents want and what students are able to achieve.

In other words, due to unrealistic parental expectations, African students miss viable higher education options.

Read more: If you have a low ATAR, you could earn more doing a VET course than a uni degree – if you’re a man

For example, students who cannot meet entrance requirements of most universities, could find TAFE diplomas more rewarding than university degrees. But career educators told me that often, due to parental pressure, students are less interested in non-university degrees.

What can be done to improve things?

Equity practitioners in schools and universities are aware that enabling programs that benefit refugee students are resource-intensive. For educational institutions to secure the necessary resources, the issue needs first to be recognised at a policy level by governments.

Early intervention is critical. Such intervention can be in the form of expanding tailored educational opportunities at the settlement stage. These may include intensive lessons on academic skills, information on alternative pathways to university, and supplementary academic support within schools.

We also need to avoid negative representations of African youth in the public conversation. Black African youth are often incorrectly labelled as inherently violent, dangerous and unsocial, as we’ve seen in recent “African gang” media portrayals.

This sort of depiction distorts public perception of people of African origin. And it reinforces racial bias in the community. Research shows that experiences of racial discrimination results in academic disengagement.

Why we need more African refugees in higher education

There are economic and social reasons for governments to promote higher education participation of refugee-background Africans.

Widening their participation in higher education can boost human capital and productivity for the nation. A recent report from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development shows that in Australia the key driver of youth unemployment is low educational attainment.

In 2016, the unemployment rate of people from the main countries of origin of African refugees was as high as 22.4%. This is over three times higher than the national average (6.9%).

The group also had low access to professional occupations (22%), compared with 49% for the general population.

A lack of knowledge and skills means not only poor employment prospects but also high youth disengagement. The youth incarceration rate is disproportionately high among African communities.

Read more: Universities need to do more to support refugee students

In 2017, young people of African background accounted for 19% of the total population in youth justice in Victoria. Yet in 2016, Africans accounted for only 1.5% of the state’s population.

As the Australian Human Rights Commission cautions, structural barriers may leave African communities on the margins of society. In a fair society such as Australia, lasting marginal existence of any group is detrimental. It undermines economic prosperity, democratic order, and social cohesion.

Improved higher education attainment does not just boost the employability and income of African refugee youth, it also equips them with the necessary skills and confidence to meaningfully engage in the political and cultural spheres of life.

– ref. Trauma, racism and unrealistic expectations mean African refugees are less likely to get into Australian unis – http://theconversation.com/trauma-racism-and-unrealistic-expectations-mean-african-refugees-are-less-likely-to-get-into-australian-unis-121885

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Geoff Hanmer, Adjunct Lecturer in Architecture, UNSW

“What we need to do is rebuild confidence in Australia’s building and construction sector,” said federal minister Karen Andrews after the July 2019 meeting of the Building Ministers’ Forum).

This has been a recurring theme since the federal, state and territory ministers commissioned Peter Shergold and Bronwyn Weir in mid-2017 to assess the effectiveness of building and construction industry regulation across Australia. They presented their Building Confidence report to the ministers in February 2018.

In the 18 months since then, the combined might of nine governments has made scant progress towards implementing the report’s 24 simple recommendations. Confidence in building regulation and quality has clearly continued to deteriorate among the public and construction industry.

Read more: The big lesson from Opal Tower is that badly built apartments aren’t only an issue for residents

In last week’s Four Corners program, Cracking Up, Weir was asked whether she would buy an apartment. She responded: “I wouldn’t buy a newly built apartment, no […] I’d buy an older one.” She went on to say:

We have hundreds of thousands of apartments that have been built across the country over the last two, three decades. Probably the prevalence of noncompliance has been particularly bad, I would say in the last say 15 to 20 years […] And that means there’s a lot of existing building stock that has defects in it […] There’ll be legacy issues for some time and I suspect there’ll be legacy issues that we’re not even fully aware of yet.

These comments may not have delighted those developers trying to sell new apartments, or owners selling existing apartments, but they are fair and correct. Confidence will not be restored until all the governments act together to improve regulatory oversight and deal with existing defective buildings.

Residents of the Lacrosse, Neo200, Opal and Mascot towers and other buildings with serious defects are already living with the impact of “legacy” problems. Over the weekend, another apartment building was evacuated – this time in Mordialloc in southeast Melbourne. The building was deemed unsafe because it was clad with combustible material and had defects in its fire detection and warning system.

Read more: Cladding fire risks have been known for years. Lives depend on acting now, with no more delays

A costly but essential fix

Fixing such defects is a costly business. A Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal decision established that replacing the combustible cladding on the Lacrosse building in Melbourne would cost an average of A$36,000 per unit. At Mascot Towers, consultant engineers estimated the cost of structural repairs at up to A$150,000 per unit on average.

According to UNSW and Deakin research, between 70% and 97% of units in strata apartments have significant defects. Let’s assume 85% have such defects and the average cost of fixing these is only $25,000 per unit. That would mean total repair costs for the 500,000 or so tall apartments (four-storey and above) across Australia could exceed A$10 billion.

The Victorian government has taken the lead on combustible cladding, setting up and funding a A$600 million scheme to replace it. It’s also replacing combustible cladding on low-rise school buildings even though these may comply with the letter of the National Construction Code.

No other state has yet followed this lead. This is concerning given the risk to life. No one viewing images of the Neo200 fire in the Melbourne CBD could doubt how dangerous combustible cladding can be.

The other states and territories should immediately copy the Victorian scheme. While not perfect, and probably underfunded, it is a positive step to improve public safety. The Andrews government should be congratulated for doing something practical while its counterparts in New South Wales and Queensland, which have many buildings with combustible cladding, fiddle about.

Read more: Flammable cladding costs could approach billions for building owners if authorities dither

All governments share responsibility

The federal government’s response has been inadequate. When asked about contributing to the Victorian scheme, Karen Andrews said:

The Commonwealth is not an ATM for the states […] this problem is of the states’ making and they need to step up and fix the problem and dig into their own pockets.

This flies in the face of reality. All nine governments are responsible for building regulation and enforcement. All signed the intergovernmental agreement on building regulation.

The federal government, which chairs the Building Ministers’ Forum, leads building regulation in Australia. The Australian Building Codes Board, which produces the National Construction Code, is effectively a federal government agency. The precursor to the national code, the Building Code of Australia, was a federal initiative.

It is clear Australian governments have worked effectively together in the past to combat threats to life and safety, or to provide consumer protection nationwide. Examples include initiatives as diverse as the national gun buyback, the creation of the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) and the program to replace defective Takata airbags in cars.

The crop of building defects we see today are a direct result of negligent regulation by all nine governments over the past two decades. Clearly, they all have a legal and moral duty to coordinate and contribute to a program to manage the risks and economic damage this has created.

All the evidence points to a long-term failure to heed repeated warnings about the dangers. Governments and regulators were captive to the interests of the development lobby, building industry and building materials supply industry.

The governments must stop playing a blame game. Effective programs are urgently needed to fix defects, including combustible cladding, incorrectly installed fire protection measures, structural noncompliance, structural failure and leaks.

The Australian Building Codes Board, which is directly responsible for the mess, should be reformed to ensure it becomes an effective regulator. The National Construction Code should be changed to make consumer protection an objective in the delivery of housing for sale.

Read more: Housing with buyer protection and no serious faults – is that too much to ask of builders and regulators?

All parties involved will have to take some pain: regulators, developers, builders, subcontractors, consultants, certifiers, insurers, aluminium panel manufacturers, suppliers and owners. Only governments can broker a solution as it will require legislation and an allocation of responsibility for fault.

The alternative will probably be a huge number of individual legal cases and a rash of owner bankruptcies, which may well leave the guilty parties untouched.

– ref. Would you buy a new apartment? Building confidence depends on ending the blame game – http://theconversation.com/would-you-buy-a-new-apartment-building-confidence-depends-on-ending-the-blame-game-122180

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gary Mortimer, Professor of Marketing and Consumer Behaviour, Queensland University of Technology

“Fill ’er up?”

That was the immediate greeting from the driveway attendant when pulling into the service station in the days before self-serve pumps.

Yes, once there was someone to pump your fuel and check your oil and water.

The colloquially named “servo” actually provided service.

Then, in order to reduce operational costs and remain competitive, they became “self-service” – you pumped your own fuel, pumped your own tyres, and didn’t dare ask for mechanical assistance.

Today’s announcement that David Jones and BP are joining forces to to “create all-new centres of convenience” appears to mean servos are getting back into service, taking the focus off fuel prices and putting it back onto customer experience.

DJs loves food

David Jones has long held food ambitions.

Back in 2015, the new South African owner of David Jones, Woolworths Holdings (which shouldn’t be confused with Australia’s Woolworths) asked South African retailing veteran Pieter de Wet to overhaul its food business.

At first he rolled out “Food Stores”, similar to British retailer Marks & Spencers “Food Halls”, inside existing David Jones stores. Then earlier this year, he launched DJ’s first stand-alone food store in Melbourne’s South Yarra.

Moving into fuel and convenience is a logical, although risky, move. Two service station chains have moved first.

Read more: David Jones seeks to exploit top end gap in Australian grocery

Rather than competing only on fuel prices or 4 cent discounts, they are competing on “customer experience”. Stay a little longer, charge your phone and deal with some important emails. Have a barista-made espresso, or a Boost Juice. Grab a YouFoodz meal to take home for dinner.

Service stations are rediscovering service

When Singapore-based multinational Puma Energy entered Australia’s petrol market in 2013, it acquired Ausfuel Gull, Matilda, Neumann and Central Combined Group, making it Australia’s largest fuel retailer outside the big four; Caltex, BP, Shell and Mobil.

In 2016 it began installing 7th Street artisan café and convenience stores in its service stations, offering barista-made coffee, fresh baguettes, free Wi-Fi and phone recharging stations.

Then, in 2017, Caltex also opened its first Foodary, offering “breakfast, lunch and dinner options to go, locally roasted barista-made coffee and goods from local businesses”.

The meal kits are from The Corner Store, the baked goods from Brasserie Bread.

The thinking is that convenience is king.

We are more time poor than ever, but we don’t want to scrimp on quality.

The same phenomenon is contributing to the growth of meal delivery services. One-third of consumers are now using a restaurant or meal delivery service, and 7% get delivery once a week.

The “premiumisation” of convenient fast food is an enormous growth opportunity, with market research company IbisWorld forecasting revenue growth of 4.7% through 2018-19 to A$7.6 billion, something David Jones wants to grab a part of in partnership with BP.

It won’t happen everywhere

Don’t expect to see a David Jones infused BP service station in your own neighbourhood any time soon.

DJs says over the next six months they will be “strategically positioned” in 10 key locations in Sydney and Melbourne populated by a high proportion of “busy, urban, health-conscious customers”.

It can be thought of as customer segmentation, this time based on time and income.

It will fragment the fuel and convenience sector. At one end will be Coles Express and Caltex Starmart, offering value and low prices. At the other will be Caltex with The Foodary, Puma with 7th Street, and David Jones/BP offering “gourmet convenience”.

But it might take our minds off prices

Offering a premium food and customer experience will help insulate BP from the effect of high fuel prices.

Last week, Coles Express announced a decline of almost 70% in earnings before interest in tax. When your offer is low prices and convenience but you can’t control fuel prices, you are at risk of losing customers.

Read more: Aussie retailers need to adapt to a world built on speed

Aiming at time-poor high income motorists offers protection. People filling up their BMW don’t care whether the price is $1.50 or $1.80 a litre.

Of course while there would be winners, there would also be losers, the biggest being traditional convenience stores and second tier supermarkets bearing brands such as IGA and Foodland, supplied by the listed wholesaler Metcash.

The ability to zip in, fill up and grab a quality food might become another nail in the coffin of the local convenience store.

– ref. Why BP is getting into bed with David Jones. The promising marriage of petrol and gourmet food – http://theconversation.com/why-bp-is-getting-into-bed-with-david-jones-the-promising-marriage-of-petrol-and-gourmet-food-122450