Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Bean, Research Fellow, The University of Queensland

What secret alchemical knowledge could be so important it required sophisticated encryption?

The setting was Amsterdam, 2019. A conference organised by the Society for the History of Alchemy and Chemistry had just concluded at the Embassy of the Free Mind, in a lecture hall opened by historical-fiction author Dan Brown.

At the conference, Science History Institute Postdoctoral Researcher Megan Piorko presented a curious manuscript belonging to English alchemists John Dee (1527–1608) and his son Arthur Dee (1579–1651). In the pre-modern world, alchemy was a means to understand nature through ancient secret knowledge and chemical experiment.

Within Dee’s alchemical manuscript was a cipher table, followed by encrypted ciphertext under the heading “Hermeticae Philosophiae medulla” — or Marrow of the Hermetic Philosophy. The table would end up being a valuable tool in decrypting the cipher, but could only be interpreted correctly once the hidden “key” was found.

It was during post-conference drinks in a dimly lit bar that Megan decided to investigate the mysterious alchemical cipher — with the help of her colleague, University of Graz Postdoctoral Researcher Sarah Lang.

A recipe for the elixir of life

Megan and Sarah shared their initial analysis on a history of chemistry blog and presented the historical discovery to cryptology experts from around the world at the 2021 HistoCrypt conference.

Based on the rest of the notebook’s contents, they believed the ciphertext contained a recipe for the fabled Philosophers’ Stone — an elixir that supposedly prolongs the owner’s life and grants the ability to produce gold from base metals.

The mysterious cipher received much interest, and Sarah and Megan were soon inundated with emails from would-be code-breakers. That’s when Richard Bean entered the picture. Less than a week after the HistoCrypt proceedings went live, Richard contacted Lang and Piorko with exciting news: he’d cracked the code.

Megan and Sarah’s initial hypothesis was confirmed; the encrypted ciphertext was indeed an alchemical recipe for the Philosophers’ Stone. Together, the trio began to translate and analyse the 177-word passage.

Read more:
Why the ancient promise of alchemy is fulfilled in reading

The alchemist behind the cipher

But who wrote this alchemical cipher in the first place, and why encrypt it?

Alchemical knowledge was shrouded in secrecy, as practitioners believed it could only be understood by true adepts.

Encrypting the most valuable trade secret, the Philosophers’ Stone, would have provided an added layer of protection against alchemical fraud and the unenlightened. Alchemists spent their lives searching for this vital substance, with many believing they had the key to successfully unlocking the secret recipe.

Arthur Dee was an English alchemist and spent most of his career as royal physician to Tsar Michael I of Russia. He continued to add to the alchemical manuscript after his father’s death — and the cipher appears to be in Arthur’s handwriting.

We don’t know the exact date John Dee, Arthur’s father, started writing in this manuscript, or when Arthur added the cipher table and encrypted text he titled “The Marrow of Hermetic Philosophy”.

However, we do know Arthur wrote another manuscript in 1634 titled Arca Arcanorum — or Secret of Secrets — where he celebrates his alchemical success with the Philosophers’ Stone, claiming he discovered the true recipe.

He decorated Arca Arcanorum with an emblem copied from a medieval alchemical scroll, illustrating the allegorical process of alchemical transmutation necessary for the Philosophers’ Stone.

Cracking the code

What clues led to decrypting the mysterious Marrow of the Hermetic Philosophy passage?

Adjacent to the encrypted text is a table resembling one used in a traditional style of cipher called a Bellaso/Della Porta cipher — invented in 1553 by Italian cryptologist Giovan Battista Bellaso, and written about in 1563 by Giambattista della Porta. This was the first clue.

The Latin title indicated the text itself was also in Latin. This was corroborated by the lack of letters V and J in the cipher table, as V and J are interchangeable with U and I, respectively, in printed Latin text.

This was good news, as Richard had access to Latin statistical models from previous decryption projects. Armed with this information, he set off in search of patterns that would lead him to the cipher “key” — a word or phrase that could be used in conjunction with the cipher table to decipher the text.

Richard soon realised the key was included at the end of the text, which is unusual. It was surprisingly long too, made up of 45 letters — arduous even for today’s computer-password standards. The trio would later realise the key was also written elsewhere in the manuscript, hidden in plain sight.

In keeping with the typical encryption practices of the period, Arthur Dee had written the key on the back of the cipher table. It read: sic alter iason aurea felici portabis uellera colcho, meaning “like a new Jason you will carry the Golden Fleece away from the lucky Colchian”.

An ancient myth

This key is adapted from the last verses of an alchemical poem by Giovanni Aurelio Augurello titled Chrysopoeia (circa 1505), with “chrysopoeia” also being the ancient Greek word for the art of gold-making.

The poem is about the ancient Greek myth of Jason and the Argonauts, which was reinterpreted during the early modern period as an allegory for alchemy. In the myth of Jason and the Argonauts, the Argonauts sail to the land of Colchis (in modern-day Georgia) to retrieve the “Golden Fleece”. In an alchemical context, the fleece is a symbol for the Philosophers’ Stone.

The actual text of the Marrow of the Hermetic Philosophy mentions taking an alchemical “egg” — not further described — from an athanor, which is a type of furnace used for gentle heating over a long period of time.

Afterwards, instructions are given for how long to wait until the different alchemical phases ensue (the blackening, whitening and the red phase). It says the end product — either a silver tincture or the gold-making elixir — will depend on when the process is stopped.

If the directions are followed correctly, the code-cracking reader is promised:

… then you will have a truly gold-making elixir by whose benevolence all the misery of poverty is put to flight and those who suffer from any illness will be restored to health.

Contrary to what was believed for a long time, alchemical recipes do contain chemical processes which can be reproduced in modern laboratories. It’s only towards the end (during the production of the Philosophers’ Stone) that the recipe becomes too vague to reproduce — at least not without further interpretation.

However, they do sometimes produce a blood-red glass (which is what the stone was said to look like).

Journey to the centre of the archive

What can we learn from historical ciphers? Cryptology experts have just scratched the surface of early-modern encryption practices. Much secret alchemical knowledge remains uncovered from a time when making gold and extending the natural limit of life was believed possible through alchemy.

The decryption of this 400-year-old cipher suggests we have much ground to dig through yet. Who knows what other alchemical ciphers are waiting to be discovered in the depths of the archive?

Read more:
Declassified Cold War code-breaking manual has lessons for solving ‘impossible’ puzzles

Megan Piorko receives funding from the Science History Institute.

Sarah Lang receives funding from the Science History Institute and the University of Graz.

Richard Bean does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Deciphering the Philosophers’ Stone: how we cracked a 400-year-old alchemical cipher – https://theconversation.com/deciphering-the-philosophers-stone-how-we-cracked-a-400-year-old-alchemical-cipher-167900

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sacha Reid, Associate Professor, Griffith University

Buying property is the largest personal investment decision most Australians will ever make. With pricing for standalone houses rising dramatically in many capital cities, more people are looking to buy apartments.

Buying an off the plan apartment can be one way to enter the property market.

Buying off the plan means consumers commit to buying a property, at today’s prices, before it’s built. Settlement happens once construction is finished.

This approach comes with risks and challenges — but following six key steps can help consumers protect themselves.

Three key challenges

If you’re an off the plan apartment buyer, you face three key challenges.

First, consumers are subject to quite biased and complex sales contracts that favour developers. This puts purchasers into an unequal bargaining position.

Secondly, many consumers are unaware of the property rights and obligations that arise from purchasing a strata title property.

Strata titling enables individual ownership of a lot (such as apartment) as well as shared ownership of the common property (such as the lobby, garages, driveways and gardens).

Lot owners are legislatively required to be involved in cooperatively managing and maintaining their apartment complexes with their fellow lot owners.

Thirdly, some consumers have ended-up receiving a poor-quality product with building defects.

Our research reveals there’s room for improvement

We recently completed a research project examining the importance of information disclosure requirements of off the plan apartment sales contracts. We:

• reviewed information disclosure requirements in a number of industries, to get a sense of what’s standard, and compared that with information disclosure requirements involved in off the plan purchases.

• conducted in-depth interviews with 31 industry practitioners and stakeholders from around Australia, including lawyers, property developers, real-estate agents, policy managers, consumer policy advocates and off the plan apartment buyers.

• did an online survey of 512 off the plan residential apartment buyers.

We found opportunities to improve the system, and outlined recommendations for key stakeholders:

Read more:
To restore public confidence in apartments, rewrite Australia’s building codes

We found most off the plan apartment buyers in Australia are typically “mum and dad” investors, but a growing proportion are owner occupiers.

Off the plan buyers tend to be mid to high income earners, well educated, working in professional or managerial roles, and between the ages of 20 and 44.

About 46% of off the plan buyers are Australian couples with dependent children. Nearly 69% of buyers were born in Australia. This contradicts a widely held perception that most off the plan apartment buyers are overseas investors.

Systemic change is needed

Our findings indicate there is limited consumer protection through regulations when buying off the plan apartments. Consumers need to educate themselves, effectively engage in the purchasing process and make sure they’re making informed decisions.

However, no amount of disclosure will cure problems built into the system such as a lack of accountability, the discretion on developers and poor quality products.

Specifically, consumers need to be protected from features within these contracts that are inherently harmful. These include the ability for the developer to cancel the contract, change the plan or floor structure, or include financial clauses that make it hard for a buyer to get their deposit back.

The purchaser may not have the financial literacy skills needed to understand the true cost of the fees associated with the property, relying on the developer to disclose this.

Policy change is needed to better protect buyers and put the onus on developers to make contract features such as these much clearer.

There is a glaring lack of government oversight of property contracts and the housing sector more broadly.

In other sectors, such as purchasers contracting for consumer goods (such as mobile telephones, whitegoods, insurance) there are distinct and clear roles for government oversight, accountability and consumer protection for non-compliance.

For example if you buy a fridge and it turns out to be faulty, the seller has to replace it or refund your money. But there’s no such legal protection in many off the plan contracts. Instead, the onus is on buyers to take the developer to court.

And many buyers may not be keen to terminate an off the plan sales contracts because they have already invested emotionally in the lifestyle “dream” of living in a complex with features such as a pool, a gym, and so on (without fully understanding what strata fees usually come with them).

Six steps to protect yourself

There are six critical steps purchasers must follow to protect themselves in buying their homes off the plan:

1) Evaluate the credibility of the builder. Google everything you can about them, and what’s been reported. What else they have built? Have their other buildings been around long enough for defects to show up? Are previous buyers happy? Can you search the developer’s building license number to see if any complaints have been lodged with regulators?

2) Anticipate market dynamics such as general economic conditions that might impact apartment prices. If the local market drops or becomes flooded with apartments, you could be left with a property worth less than you paid for it.

3) Get legal advice on contract documents — and make sure your lawyer knows what to check and examines the contract really closely.

4) Understand the rights and obligations associated with community living. All those extra features, like pools, usually come with extra fees.

5) Consider an independent building inspection. If issues are identified at that point, notify the developer immediately. Some defects may be fixable but others might not become apparent for years to come.

6) Know where to seek assistance. Usually that will be via the fair trading department in your state, so make sure you know how to contact them.

Read more:
Dealing with apartment defects: a how-to guide for strata owners and buyers

Sacha Reid receives funding from the Consumer Policy and Research Centre.

Melissa Pocock receives funding from Consumer Policy and Research Centre.

Savindi Caldera and Therese Wilson do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Considering buying property off the plan? Here are 6 crucial steps to protect yourself – https://theconversation.com/considering-buying-property-off-the-plan-here-are-6-crucial-steps-to-protect-yourself-168856

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Wise, Senior Lecturer, Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Auckland

Some women are holding off on being vaccinated against COVID-19 because of concerns the jab could affect their fertility, at times taking to social media to voice their concerns.

Anti-vaccination campaigners appear to be fuelling these fears and misleading women into thinking the vaccine may affect their chance of getting pregnant now or in future, or increase their risk of a miscarriage.

But there is no research evidence to support these claims. The science shows COVID vaccines have no effect on fertility, do not impact the chance of a miscarriage, and are safe and effective while pregnant.

À lire aussi :
Should pregnant women have a COVID vaccine? The evidence says it’s safe and effective

COVID-19, however, can cause severe disease in pregnant women. Currently one in six of the most critically ill COVID patients in the UK are unvaccinated pregnant women.

Where did the fertility myth come from?

Myths about the vaccine affecting fertility can be tracked back to websites in the United States, which highlighted a claim by a European doctor in December 2020, while the vaccine was in Phase 3 trials.

In a blog post which has since been deleted, he hypothesised there were proteins in the placenta which have similarities with the spike protein in the virus. He thought antibodies in the vaccines that block the spike protein might also attach to the placenta.

But the viral and placental proteins are not similar enough that we would expect this to happen; studies have now confirmed this.

À lire aussi :
Pregnant or worried about infertility? Get vaccinated against COVID-19

What else does the science say?

Since the vaccine rollout began, six billion doses of COVID vaccines have been administered around the world, including Pfizer and Moderna, the recommended vaccines in Australia for under-60s, including pregnant women. Pfizer is the only vaccine offered in New Zealand.

There has not been a concurrent epidemic of infertility nor miscarriage.

Several populations of women have been followed up after vaccination. Women who have received COVID vaccinations have no difference in markers of ovarian follicle (egg) quality compared to unvaccinated women.

Studies have demonstrated no difference in embryo implantation rate for women who had received vaccination against COVID prior to having in vitro fertilisation (IVF) compared to unvaccinated women.

Studies have also looked for an effect of the vaccine on male fertility. These have demonstrated no change in sperm volume, concentration, motility (the ability to swim the right way) and total motile sperm count when comparing samples taken before and after COVID vaccination.

À lire aussi :
COVID-19 could cause male infertility and sexual dysfunction – but vaccines do not

What about in pregnancy?

Studies have also looked specifically at miscarriage. If antibodies against the spike did cause problems for the placenta, we would expect to see miscarriages. This is not the case.

The science is also clear the vaccine is safe in pregnancy. In studies of pregnant women in Canada and the United States who received the vaccine, minor side effects were similar to non-pregnant adults, and pregnancy complications and baby outcomes were similar to the background rate.

Research has shown there’s additional benefit of vaccination in pregnancy, with the baby gaining some protection against COVID. Antibodies have been found in cord blood and in breastmilk, suggesting temporary protection for babies (called passive immunity).

Getting vaccinated at any stage of pregnancy will provide this additional benefit.

What about future fertility?

The COVID vaccine – like every other vaccine you received during childhood, and like the flu vaccine that you get every flu season – induces your body to create an immune response. The components of the vaccine itself are broken down by the body within hours.

In other words, COVID vaccines don’t stay in your body. After vaccination, you are left with antibodies ready to act in case you get exposed to the COVID virus in the future. There is no link with infertility or miscarriage.

À lire aussi :
No, COVID vaccines don’t stay in your body for years

Women who are pregnant, planning a pregnancy or are concerned about their future fertility might still have concerns or questions about getting a COVID vaccination. If this is you, talk to your own doctor or midwife who can discuss the science with you and answer any questions in a non-judgemental way.

Dr Erena Browne, Registrar in O&G at Auckland District Health Board, co-authored this article.

Michelle Wise ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. No, COVID-19 vaccines don’t affect women’s fertility – https://theconversation.com/no-covid-19-vaccines-dont-affect-womens-fertility-168568

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ziteng Wang, PhD researcher, University of Sydney

In early 2020, we detected an unusual radio signal coming from somewhere near the centre of our galaxy. The signal blinked on and off, growing 100 times brighter and dimmer over time.

What’s more, the radio waves in the signal had an uncommon “circular polarisation”, which means the electric field in the radio waves spirals around as the waves travel through space.

We first spotted the signal using the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder Telescope (ASKAP), then followed up with other telescopes around the world and in space. Despite our best efforts, we are still unable to work out exactly what produced these mysterious radio waves.

A strange signal from the heart of the Milky Way

We have been surveying the sky with ASKAP throughout 2020 and 2021 in search of unusual new objects, in a project called the Variables and Slow Transients (VAST) survey.

Most things astronomers see in outer space are fairly stable and don’t change much on human time scales. That’s why objects that do change (known as variables) or appear and disappear (known as transients) are so interesting.

Transients are usually connected with some of the most energetic and violent events in the Universe, such as the death of massive stars. The past decade has seen thousands of transients discovered at optical and X-ray wavelengths, but radio wavelengths are largely untapped.

When we looked towards the centre of our galaxy (the Milky Way), we found a source we called ASKAP J173608.2-321635 (this catchy name comes from its coordinates in the sky). This object was unique in that it started out invisible, became bright, faded away, and then reappeared. This behaviour was extraordinary.

As well as changing over time, the signal was circularly polarised. Our eyes cannot distinguish between polarised and unpolarised light, but ASKAP has the equivalent of polaroid sunglasses for radio waves.

Polarised radio sources are extremely rare: we might find fewer than ten circularly polarised sources out of thousands. Almost all of them are sources we understand well, such as pulsars (the rapidly rotating, highly magnetised remnants of exploded stars) or highly magnetised red dwarf stars.

Finding more evidence

Investigating a new astronomical object is a bit like a detective job. We need evidence to determine what it is.

Based on our ASKAP data, we thought the new object might be a pulsar or a flaring star: both types of object can be polarised, and change in brightness. However, we needed to find more clues.

We next observed the source with the Parkes radio telescope in New South Wales to decide whether it was a pulsar. However, these observations yielded nothing.

We then tried the more sensitive MeerKAT radio telescope in South Africa. Because the signal was intermittent, we observed it for 15 minutes every few weeks, hoping we would see it again. Luckily, the signal returned, but the behaviour of the source was now dramatically different. The source disappeared in the course of a single day, even though it had lasted for weeks in our previous ASKAP observations.

It is always a good idea to investigate from multiple perspectives. Telescopes working at other wavelengths can serve as another pair of eyes to help us find new clues.

After the MeerKAT detection, we searched for the source in X-rays (using the space-based Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory and Chandra X-ray Observatory) and infrared (using the Gemini telescope in Chile). However, we saw nothing.

Still a mystery

We have observed this strange object at multiple wavelengths using telescopes on three continents and in space. What can we say about what it actually is?

Can it be a star? It seems unlikely because stars also emit much of their light in the optical and infrared (like the Sun), but we detect nothing at these wavelengths.

Can it be a pulsar? Like our signal, pulsars produce polarised radio waves and can vary dramatically in brightness. But the characteristic of pulsars is rapid pulses betweem milliseconds to seconds long, and we did not detect these with Parkes or MeerKAT.

Read more:
Fifty years ago Jocelyn Bell discovered pulsars and changed our view of the universe

Is the source’s proximity to the centre of our galaxy a clue? Over the past 15 years, a number of intriguing radio sources have been discovered toward the Galactic centre (including one dubbed the “cosmic burper”). We don’t know what they are, but they are imaginatively called Galactic Center Radio Transients (GCRTs).

Are they related to ASKAP J173608.2-321635? There are some similarities, but there are also differences. And even the known GCRTs exhibit diversity, and may not share a common origin. So our signal is still a mystery.

We will keep observing this source in new ways. It is just the first of many unusual transient sources that we expect to find with the powerful ASKAP array, and it gives a hint of the future of radio astronomy.

Read more:
‘WTF?’: newly discovered ghostly circles in the sky can’t be explained by current theories, and astronomers are excited

Ziteng Wang received support from University of Sydney International Scholarship, and as a Graduate Student with CSIRO Space and Astronomy.

David Kaplan receives funding from the National Science Foundation.

Tara Murphy works for The University of Sydney. She receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. We found a mysterious flashing radio signal from near the centre of the galaxy – https://theconversation.com/we-found-a-mysterious-flashing-radio-signal-from-near-the-centre-of-the-galaxy-167802

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tony Walker, Vice-chancellor’s fellow, La Trobe University

In the midst of a pandemic that has wrenched the world off its axis, Lebanon’s precipitous decline has not received the attention it deserves given the country’s strategic importance.

Bordering Syria to its north and east, and Israel to its south, Lebanon occupies a critical space in the Eastern Mediterranean. Its collapse would risk spilling over into surrounding areas.

The country is sagging under the weight of a vast refugee population from neighbouring Syria and a permanent Palestinian refugee presence. It certainly qualifies as a “crisis state”, which the London School of Economics defines as one in “acute stress”.

The question is whether the “crisis state” becomes, to all intents and purposes, a “failed state” under the LSE definition of one that “can no longer perform its basic security and development functions”.

Lebanon, which has taken more than a year to form a new government after an ammonium nitrate explosion ripped through its port area and forced the resignation of the government of the day, is again teetering on the brink.

Fuel shortages, which this week shut down its main power stations, have drawn the world’s attention to Lebanon’s continuing slide towards outright ruin.

The emergence last month of a new prime minister after months of wrangling over power sharing among the country’s confessional groups hardly engendered confidence in the new government’s ability to get on top of Lebanon’s problems.

Fuel shortages caused by a foreign exchange crisis in which the country is effectively bankrupt is merely one of a series of cascading problems that has prompted the World Bank to describe the situation as one the world’s top-10 “most severe crises since the mid-nineteenth century”.

The World Bank speculates that Lebanon’s crisis may well rank in the “top 3”. This includes the Great Depression of the 1930s.

In a report issued in June by its Beirut office before the formation of the new government, the bank said Lebanon faced

[…] colossal challenges [that] threaten already dire socio-economic conditions and a fragile social peace with no clear turning point on the horizon.

The installation of Najib Mikati, a billionaire telecommunications tycoon, as prime minister has coincided with a further step down in Lebanon’s fortunes to the point where its ability to arrest its slide now depends on outside help. But that’s the problem.

Potential international donors, led by France with its traditional ties to the country, are fed up with Lebanon’s inability to get its house in order and its endemic corruption, and fear external assistance will merely strengthen the radical Shi’ite Hezbollah’s grip on the country.

With Iran’s backing, Hezbollah has been portraying itself as Lebanon’s saviour. Iranian-supplied fuel has been shipped into Lebanon by truck from the Syrian port of Baniyas to circumvent US-imposed sanctions.

Since its emergence at the height of Lebanon’s civil war, which lasted from 1975-1990, Hezbollah has gradually strengthened its position as the dominant player in the country’s complex political make-up.

Read more:
Beirut explosion yet another heartbreak for a country already on the brink

This divides power between Christian and Muslim confessional groups under a power-sharing arrangement brokered by France in 1943. A Saudi-mediated deal, known as the Ta’if agreement to end the civil war, acknowledged Hezbollah’s role.

Hezbollah is designated as a terrorist organisation by the United States and other countries.

In the three decades since Ta’if, Lebanon has got itself back on its feet under various administrations only to slide back again, and now disastrously.

The reasonable question in all of this, given its intense internal problems overlaid by a governance structure that is clearly outmoded, is whether Lebanon is ungovernable in its present form and risks breaking apart.

In an assessment of Lebanon’s status as a potential failed state the Council on Foreign Relations nominated the following criteria. These included the 75% (at least) of Lebanese living below the poverty line, the 1.7 million refugees whose plight is even worse than that of Lebanese nationals, the duration of power blackouts of 22 hours a day, and public debt of 175% of GDP.

Since that assessment in September last year the situation has got much worse, if that’s possible. The Lebanese pound is virtually valueless, having lost 90% of its value against the dollar in the past several years. The country is beset by hyperinflation with price rises of more than 400% putting basic foodstuffs beyond the reach of many. Lebanon’s economy contracted by more than 20% in 2020.

One-third of Lebanese are living in “extreme poverty”, according to the United Nations.

Not least of Lebanon’s problems is its huge refugee burden. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reports the country has 865,530 registered Syrian refugees among an estimated 1.5 Syrians in Lebanon.

On top of the Syrian presence, there are some 190,000 Palestinians in Lebanon, many in refugee camps. The Palestinians are effectively stateless and even more vulnerable to a deteriorating economy than the impoverished Lebanese.

Lebanon’s population, including refugees, stands at around 6.8 million.

Compounding Lebanon’s problems is an acute foreign exchange crisis. It is to all intents and purposes broke, and therefore unable to continue to subsidise imports of vital commodities, including food and medicine.

This has pushed prices through the roof.

Embattled Mikati put it bluntly after his swearing in.

Where are we going to get dollars to subsidise? We are dry. We don’t have any reserves or money that allows us to help.

Meanwhile, billions of dollars have flowed out of the country as wealthy Lebanese and corrupt officials have sought to shelter their assets given the collapse of the country ‘s banking system.

Banks have become insolvent. Thousands of Lebanese have lost their life savings. In the midst of this, they would have reason to be dismayed by revelations in the leaked Pandora Papers that prominent figures in government and the bureaucracy had been siphoning funds out of the country for years.

Read more:
Pandora papers: as ordinary Lebanese suffer, elite secretly drain off billions

Among those identified as having shifted funds abroad is Riad Salameh, Lebanon’s long-standing central bank governor. He is the sole director of a British Virgin Islands company established in 2007.

Salameh is under investigation in Switzerland and France for potential money laundering and embezzlement. He has been accused in local Lebanese media of shifting funds abroad in violation of regulations. He denies having made any such transfers.

However, what is not in doubt is that Lebanon is one of the world’s most corrupt jurisdictions. This is contributing to its inability to put its house in order.

In the global Corruption Perception Index, recognised as the most credible assessment of global corrupt practices, Lebanon rates 137 on a list of 180 countries along with Russia, Papua New Guinea and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

On the Fragile States Index compiled by the Fund for Peace in collaboration with Foreign Policy magazine, Lebanon ranked 34 in 2020, down from 40 in 2019. Given its accelerating decline over the past 12 months, its 2021 rating may well rival that of failing states like Yemen, Somalia and Syria.

If Lebanon is not a failed state now it is certainly one in the making. This is barring a substantial intervention by reluctant international lending institutions and western governments concerned about its further slide towards an Iran-led “axis of resistance”.

Tony Walker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Lebanon’s crisis has gone from bad to worse. But is anyone listening? – https://theconversation.com/lebanons-crisis-has-gone-from-bad-to-worse-but-is-anyone-listening-169645

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Geoff Cockfield, Honorary Professor in Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development, University of Southern Queensland

Prime Minister Scott Morrison appears to be moving towards securing Coalition agreement for a net-zero emissions by 2050. It comes weeks out from the crucial COP26 climate talks in Glasgow, where Australia’s record on global climate action will be heavily scrutinised.

Horse-trading between the Liberals and Nationals is under way, and the government is reportedly set to reveal its climate targets and technology roadmap early next week.

But first, Morrison must secure majority support from the National Party. A few vocal Nationals figures, including Matt Canavan, Keith Pitt and George Christensen, have sought to block or moderate a net-zero commitment.

Some of their concerns are valid – regional Australia will shoulder a big burden in the transition to a low-emissions economy. But the tides of international and domestic affairs are turning. Most government MPs have accepted the inevitable, and the issue will not break the bonds of an enduring Coalition.

Net-zero and the Nationals

The Nationals do have legitimate economic and political reasons for being concerned about a net-zero target.

First, a move away from coal and gas would lead to job losses in regional areas. And the federal government’s policy playbook to support rural and remote areas is extremely thin, relying heavily on spillover economic benefits from agricultural development and mining.

This means the Nationals, as the self-proclaimed regional party, have few economic levers to pull. Retaining mining investment is both politically and, at regional and local scales, economically important.

Second, policy mechanisms such as a price on carbon or caps on greenhouse gas emissions could add to costs for people living in regions, and to agricultural industries such as beef production, where reducing emissions will not be straightforward or cheap.

Third, the Nationals’ opposition is somewhat in line with the party’s ideology and electoral positioning. It has historically pitched itself as a defender of national economic interests and “traditional” industries such as farming and mining.

At the same time, the party has long opposed, on economic and social grounds, post-materialist influences such as deep Green environmentalism.

Finally, the Nationals, along with the Liberals, have successfully used climate change policies to wedge the Labor Party and paint it as part of a supposed Labor-Green axis. This tactic worked well in central Queensland in the last federal election.

So for some Nats, conceding to net-zero might be seen as an ideological capitulation and yet more evidence of their ineffective efforts to stand up for the bush.

Read more:
The Nationals signing up to net-zero should be a no-brainer. Instead, they’re holding Australia to ransom

Net-zero gathers (renewable) steam

The problem for the Nationals resistance movement, however, is that it’s becoming increasingly isolated.

Both the Biden administration in Washington and the United Kingdom government are pressuring Australia to commit to the 2050 net-zero target.

And several jurisdictions, such as the European Union, are considering or planning carbon tariffs on imports from nations without strong climate policies.

In the context of recent shifts in the international policy landscape, railing against such tariffs looks anachronistic.

As National Farmers’ Federation (NFF) chief executive Tony Mahar said earlier this year, “as an industry dependent on exporting, Australian agriculture must be ready to adjust to a more carbon-conscious trading future”.

Domestically, state governments, including those with Coalition incumbents, have shifted to net-zero-type targets. So too have important lobby groups, such as the NFF and the Business Council of Australia.

Meanwhile, moderates in the federal Liberal Party are gearing up to argue for a net-zero plan and against large compensation for particular industries.

All this leaves the Nationals’ resistance movement rather short of influential allies.

Opponents could, of course, roll out the implied threat of breaking the Coalition. But moderate Nationals have hosed down suggestions a net-zero target is a make-or-break issue for the Coalition partners. And historically, Coalition breaks – especially in government – are extremely rare.

Read more:
5 reasons why the Morrison government needs a net-zero target, not just a flimsy plan

Sealing the deal

Nonetheless, even Nationals in favour of a net-zero target want assurances for the regions and agricultural industries.

An obvious and relatively easy policy response is to ensure new renewable energy projects in the regions deliver local economic benefits, such as through favourable purchasing and employment strategies or even dividend sharing.

Second is to ensure these and other projects continue to drive down electricity costs. This is especially important for energy-intensive agricultural production such as irrigated crop and pasture production. Where possible, regional landholders could receive income from local energy ventures as hosts of, or even partners in, projects.

Third, funding for land-based carbon storage could be expanded.

Australian landholders have made a huge contribution to national emissions offsets over decades, largely through vegetation management which draws carbon from the atmosphere and stores it in plants and soil. Such management has largely been the result of state government regulation preventing land clearing and farmers have historically received little direct benefit in return.

The federal government is now contributing funding for landholders who create land-based carbon sinks under the Emissions Reduction Fund. But the resulting projects have caused local concerns and the carbon storage outcomes are uncertain.

So expanding such schemes will not be easy. It must be done in a way that meets integrity standards, and without alienating local people.

The Morrison government is understandably averse to direct carbon pricing, given the toxic climate politics of the last decade. It’s instead focused on low-emissions technological solutions.

This might lead to new low-emisisons technologies for the regions, such as conversion to renewable energy and innovative transport systems. But there’s no timeline yet for when such technology will materialise.

The Nationals are right to demand detail in the climate policy deal. But the net-zero bandwagon cannot be stopped – at best, the Nationals must settle for perhaps quite modest compensation for their constituents.

Read more:
Australia could ‘green’ its degraded landscapes for just 6% of what we spend on defence

Geoff Cockfield does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The net-zero bandwagon is gathering steam, and resistant MPs are about to be run over – https://theconversation.com/the-net-zero-bandwagon-is-gathering-steam-and-resistant-mps-are-about-to-be-run-over-169632

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Scott Imig, Associate professor, Educational Leadership and Management, University of Newcastle

As the United States withdrawal from Afghanistan culminated in tragic scenes at Kabul airport in recent months, Australians saw a glimpse of the lives of people trying to escape dangerous situations to find safety for their families.

Many Afghans were brought to Australia, some having to tragically leave behind families.

Australia is anticipated to issue about 3,000 humanitarian visas to Afghan refugees this year. That number could grow to 20,000 in the next few years. About half of the refugee population resettled to Australia are children.

Overall, there are more than 11,000 students from refugee backgrounds attending government schools in New South Wales and about 1,800 new refugee students enter the state school system each year.

Principals and teachers are among Australia’s most important front-line workers. Over the past two years, they have helped communities deal with fires, floods and COVID-19 lockdowns.

Read more:
A familiar place among the chaos: how schools can help students cope after the bushfires

In our recently published book Creating Spaces of Wellbeing and Belonging for Refugee and Asylum-Seeker Students we provide strategies for school leaders to help care for young people dealing with trauma and forced migration, and to help them integrate into their new communities.

Why refugee students need help

Around the world more than 80 million people are listed as displaced from their homes – more than 26 million of those are classified as refugees. The refugees are primarily from Syria, Venezuela, Afghanistan, South Sudan, Somalia and Myanmar.

Half the refugees are under 18 years of age.

Since 1945, Australia has resettled about 945,000 refugees who were displaced from their home countries. The current government policy is to relocate 13,750 people a year from mostly war-torn countries to Australia.

New refugees come to Australia mainly from:

• Iraq

• Democratic Republic of Congo

• Myanmar

• Syria

• Afghanistan.

Many Australian teachers and school leaders report feeling unprepared to serve refugee students.
Our research suggests school principals and staff are vital to the successful integration of refugee children into society.

Refugee students often have limited English. Some have little or no formal prior schooling experiences. Some may be well behind their peers academically and much of the curriculum may appear completely foreign which can lead to more insecurity.

Read more:
We studied Afghan refugees for 3 years to find out what life is like for them in Australia

Many students come from families with few resources. Their parents are also dealing with the mental health issues associated with forced migration and tremendous loss.

There are significant differences between these students’ experiences and that of their hosts. The principal of one Australian school whom we interviewed told us how some newly arrived students refused to play at recess because in their home country, kidnappers, “think parents are rich if the children can afford to play”.

Another principal told of girls who refused to swim in the same pool with boys and mothers who didn’t feel comfortable attending parent-teacher meetings with other men.

Our participants offered insights for addressing these challenges and creating welcoming schools for children with refugee backgrounds. We’ve grouped these into three main themes.

1. Welcoming new arrivals

At the first contact with refugee and asylum-seeker families, the entire school staff must be available, friendly and committed to the process of integrating these families. School materials need to be in the appropriate language and interpreters must be present.

Schools should provide families with many of their needs at the initial meeting. This can include culturally appropriate uniforms and supplies (such as stationery) so students can feel a sense of belonging.

A primary principal in England told us how she developed a buddy system in which newly arrived children were paired with same-age peers, proficient in English, who also shared similar language backgrounds.

An Australian principal created a weekly coffee club for newly arrived parents that he staffs with interpreters. He said:

At those coffee clubs they discuss different topics: they looked at how to buy furniture, how to make a healthy meal on a budget, where do you have to go if you have to see a doctor. Because they don’t have access to those things.

A high school principal in New Zealand provided all families who volunteered to cook for a cultural evening with funds for the ingredients they needed to make their dishes. This gave an ideal opportunity for newcomers to share food from their home countries with the broader school community.

For each of these principals, community building is a purposeful, consistent and time-intensive endeavour.

2. Help staff to understand trauma

Children who have been forcibly displaced from their homes, who have experienced loss of family members and who have arrived in a new land, with a new language and new expectations are experiencing trauma. Trauma can manifest in delayed learning, erratic emotions, and unexpected behaviours.

Principals should educate themselves and their staff on ways to help students deal with trauma.

Read more:
Why every teacher needs to know about childhood trauma

One Australian primary principal told us he hired a teacher to engage students in art therapy. He said:

There was one boy who drew mountain tops and explained to us the strategies that the Taliban use. It’s this way that they were able to draw it and express it and to get it out. It has a therapeutic nature which allows them to have some self-expression. That allowed them a voice, when they didn’t necessarily have the English.

3. Learn about new students and families

Principals should encourage their staff to learn about new students and their families. This includes learning about their culture and traditions, as well as listening carefully as students tell their stories in class.

One principals told us:

Kids will tell you about their parents, who are still missing in the country that they left, or how the house has been bombed three times by the Americans […] These are all the stories that come out but listening to the kids and you can see the healing that happens as a result of that.

Another primary principal encourages engaging with the refugees’ cultural communities: “Go and visit the local mosque, go and ask some questions”.

Successfully integrating new families into our school communities benefits not only the newcomers, it also creates hope for all Australian families.

Building a diverse society starts with caring and promoting the well-being of all children, particularly newcomers who have been through so much to become part of our communities.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Refugee students struggle with displacement and trauma. Here are 3 ways schools can help them belong – https://theconversation.com/refugee-students-struggle-with-displacement-and-trauma-here-are-3-ways-schools-can-help-them-belong-168387

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Darren Paul Fisher, Assistant Professor, Head of Directing, Department of Film, Screen and Creative Media, Bond University

On September 29, Bond’s 25th adventure No Time To Die had its world premiere. All the necessary credentials to signify the franchise’s new crowd-friendly feminism were present: Daniel Craig sporting a hot pink dinner jacket, Lea Seydoux paraded as the first Bond girl ever to return in a 007 movie sans the male gaze, and director Cary Fukunaga deriding Connery’s Bond as “basically” a rapist.

It appears to be part of a coordinated plan, one that can only be described as the woke-washing of Daniel Craig’s Bond, especially when it comes to the character’s famed sexism. I don’t mean that No Time To Die has gone full-feminist. Like most of us in Australia, I have yet to see the film — and as a lifelong fan, I’m excited to see.

No, I’m talking about the carefully curated revisionist history attempting to re-contextualise, Orwellian-fashion, the recent iteration of Bond as already-and-always-egalitarian. There are many ways in which this is dangerous, not least of which is attempting to ignore that bigotry exists.

A super-spy franchise

Let’s give this some context, with a brief history of our favourite British super-spy. The first book, Casino Royale was released in 1953, the first movie, Dr. No in 1962. There have been six (official) screen Bonds: Sean Connery (1962-67 & 1971), George Lazenby (1969), Roger Moore (1973-1985), Timothy Dalton (1987-1989), Pierce Brosnan (1995-2002) and Daniel Craig (2006-2021).

As each actor ages out of the role (or decides to leave), the character and his world is updated so Bond is always in the right now.

Most of this is surface level, often based on product placement opportunities. Bond is always at the height of fashion with the latest car, experiencing the best that life has to offer. The gadgets are usually at the cutting edge of what is scientifically possible, with only a few (invisible car, anyone?) missteps. Moore’s urbane Bond even had his own espresso machine and was the first to smoke cigars (as did Brosnan). Connery, Lazenby and Dalton preferred cigarettes, with Craig’s version a non-smoker.

But it is this constant retconning where everything starts to go a little awry, especially when it comes to the world-view of Mr. Bond.

Read more:
James Bond is more than a (sexist) secret agent. He is a fertility god, a Dionysus of the modern era

Bond girls

I have written before about my dislike of the Craig-era Bond films, due to their dumbing-down of the character and questionable treatment of women. Yet the real problems started back with GoldenEye (1995). After an agonising six year absence, GoldenEye was seen as a return to form — Pierce Brosnan was terrific, the very epitome of the charming, handsome, irresistible Bond.

The film was also a first attempt to reject Bond’s chauvinist roots. M was now a woman, and she got to call James a “sexist, misogynist dinosaur”. But this was quickly exposed as lip-service, the film operating as usual with women treated as sex objects or damsels in distress. (Moneypenny does point out that Bond’s behaviour could qualify as sexual harassment, but it is in the service of a flirty gag about him having to make good on his innuendos.)

But just which Bond was M talking to? The Bond as personified by Connery, Lazenby, Moore and Dalton since 1962? An argument could be made that Connery’s Bond is problematic to modern eyes, but Roger Moore’s less so, and Dalton was perhaps the most female-respectful version of the character; in no way a misogynist. But clearly M was not talking to Bond at all, but to critics of Bond and his mid-century origins.

The real problem was that somehow the franchise seemed to believe Bond’s misogyny was a defining characteristic, rather than simply a reflection of the time the character and films were created. As Umberto Eco has discussed at length, to appeal to the widest possible audience, Fleming likely shaped Bond’s persona around the most conventional thinking. In other words, he’s a centrist. And the centre shifts. If you take a centrist cis white male from 1952 and put him in 2021, his attitudes will naturally be out of step.

Why did the franchise contemporise everything else about the character, but not this?

The new Bond

Now we are not only being told those misogynist days are “over”, but they’ve been over since at least 2006’s Casino Royale. Yet this second attempt at equality seems no more sincere than the first.

Seydoux’s claim that she’s the first recurring Bond girl is simply wrong. What about Sylvia Trench, Bond’s girlfriend from the first two films? You remember her, the woman who first received the “Bond, James Bond” line?

Fukunaga’s declaration that a scene in Thunderball (1965), where Bond coerces a woman into sex, makes Connery’s version “basically” a rapist is far more credible. But what would he make of the equally problematic Skyfall (2012)? It is perhaps the lowest point in the franchise, both in terms of how the film — and Bond himself — exploit female characters.

Skyfall is a counterpart to Goldeneye (1995), bookending Judi Dench’s M. In perhaps the most disturbing scene of any Bond film of any era, the Bond of Skyfall takes sexual advantage of a sexual abuse victim in fear of her life, all-the-while positioning himself as her only saviour (she dies anyway). It feels like a doctor taking advantage of a vulnerable patient.

At the close of Skyfall, M is reduced to a damsel in distress before being unceremoniously killed off. The final scenes involve sparky, capable agent Eve who decides she would rather be a secretary for the new, male, M (Ralph Fiennes). We realise it is her “rightful” place when her surname is revealed to be Moneypenny.

Read more:
No Time to Die: the problem with Bond villains having facial disfigurements

Freeing James Bond from the past

Why is this a problem? Because Bond is an aspirational figure, so it inevitably validates harmful and outdated ideas. Yet the clamour for Bond’s liberalism, genuine or otherwise, seems a rare example of too much too late.

An always-now Bond does not have to be politically correct. Precedents of this approach are just about any screen superhero ever. 2022’s Batman won’t be defined by his 1939 views on women: not much is made of these views at all. Nor should they be, for they do not define his character. We should give Bond the same freedom: the Bond of today does not need to be defined in relation to Bonds gone by. Although I did quite like the pink jacket.

Darren Paul Fisher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Is James Bond a misogynist? He doesn’t have to be Connery, Moore or even Craig’s vision forever – https://theconversation.com/is-james-bond-a-misogynist-he-doesnt-have-to-be-connery-moore-or-even-craigs-vision-forever-169619

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The line from Scott Morrison’s office that he’s “more likely than not” to attend what Prince Charles dubs a “last chance saloon” (Aka COP26) reflects the PM’s apparent confidence he’ll be able to secure an agreement from those pesky Nationals.

Despite there being several steps ahead to tie down that “net zero” deal, Morrison has been sounding like a man convinced he’s unstoppable.

“My government will come together on this issue,” he declared on Monday. One way or another, is the vibe.

As one Nationals source put it, either the Nationals agree, or they’ll be run over.

But “running over” the Coalition’s minor partner can be as risky as driving a car over a heap of nails. It doesn’t leave the tyres in the best of shape.

The climate policy is due to be discussed by cabinet on Wednesday, ahead of a Nationals party meeting on Sunday.

Nationals sources stress that whatever comes to the cabinet meeting is not something that is owned or authored by Joyce. At this moment there is not yet any “deal”.

Read more:
Government’s leadership group to consider climate policy this week, with high stakes for Morrison and Joyce

The cabinet would not be making a final decision but having Joyce put something to his party, these sources say.

Victorian Nationals Darren Chester (who has been taking time out from the party room) told the ABC on Tuesday that three months ago “Barnaby Joyce said there was zero chance that the Nationals would support a net zero target – now I would say there’s about a 95% chance.

“I think there’s a lot of support and I know many colleagues in the room, who’ve spoken to me privately, [are] making the point that they understand we need a credible position on this issue,” Chester said.

“Despite all his other faults, Barnaby Joyce can count, and he can count the majority of the room is in favour of credible action on climate change.”

While Chester’s assessment of the numbers seems accurate, some Nationals are antsy.

This goes beyond the likes of Queensland senator Matt Canavan and resources minister Keith Pitt.

Canavan will never change his trenchant opposition to the net zero target. On Tuesday, appearing on Sky, he was condemning it as meaning “big government is put in charge” of individuals’ lives – what cars they drove, even what they ate.

Read more:
Climate finance: rich countries aren’t meeting aid targets – could legal action force them?

Pitt, who has been sceptical of a net zero commitment, faces being in an awkward position – as a minister (though not in cabinet) – if he has to sell a firm embrace of that target.

On Tuesday Pitt was visiting the Adani coal mine in Queensland.

Joyce is aware he must tread very carefully with his colleagues. While he appears to be leading his party to a place it never thought it would go, he casts himself as the follower.

Pressed on Tuesday night on whether he as Nationals leader supported a net zero by 2050 target, he resorted to a cute line, telling the ABC, “I don’t support it without the support of my colleagues”.

Read more:
Politics with Michelle Grattan: A prime minister, a prince and the ‘last chance saloon’.

Despite Joyce’s genuflecting to the party room, some Nationals feel they are being steamrolled, or are confused as various senior figures run positions in the media.

For example, what were they to make of the party’s Senate leader Bridget McKenzie’s opinion piece on Monday? In it she advocated a mechanism to enable Australia “to conditionally tie emissions reductions to positive regional socio-economic outcomes. If these were not being achieved, Australia would pause its climate plan rollout”.

Some Nationals wondered whether this was part of a government deal. McKenzie’s office quickly said it wasn’t Nationals policy, but insisted it was not a thought bubble either.

It’s clear a deal will be laden with sweeteners for the Nationals and protections too.

But if there are too many caveats, they will diminish the quality of the policy.

The deal the government reaches (assuming it gets there) needs to be strong enough in its ambition (including for the medium term) to be credible at Glasgow, and in the “leafy” electorates, but also able to be sold by the Nationals in their Queensland seats.

Morrison will be owning the climate part, while Joyce will be looking to the bag of benefits for the regions.

The deal has to work for both of them.

While Morrison is at the G20 and Glasgow – assuming he goes – Joyce will be acting prime minister. The last thing Morrison needs is a spooked Joyce putting his own distinctive spin on the climate policy.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. View from The Hill: Barnaby Joyce keeps his political hands clean on the road to net zero target – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-barnaby-joyce-keeps-his-political-hands-clean-on-the-road-to-net-zero-target-169752

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

As well as Michelle Grattan’s usual interviews with experts and politicians about the news of the day, Politics with Michelle Grattan now includes “Word from The Hill”, where all things political will be discussed with members of The Conversations’s politics team.

In this week’s episode, they canvass Scott Morrison’s signal he now does want to go to Glasgow, as even Prince Charles increases the pressure on him to attend the “last chance saloon”. This comes as crunch time looms for the Nationals to agree to a new government climate policy.

Meanwhile the admission by federal Labor MP Anthony Byrne be branch stacked leaves Anthony Albanese is an awkward position as he prepares for the election.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: A prime minister, a prince and the ‘last chance saloon’. – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-a-prime-minister-a-prince-and-the-last-chance-saloon-169736

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society and NATSEM, University of Canberra

Every year Australia’s Fair Work Commission considers whether to raise the minimum wage. And every year business leaders warn doing it will cost jobs.

This year’s Nobel Prize in economics has been awarded to US-based economist David Card for his work with Alan Krueger in reversing this perception.

Before Card and Krueger “everyone knew” that imposing or increasing a minimum wage would cost jobs. Employers wouldn’t have the money to keep on as many staff.

Card and Krueger work turned that proposition into the Loch Ness Monster of economics – often discussed but never actually seen. It wasn’t just that economists weren’t looking hard enough to find it, it was that it wasn’t there.

In an influential article in 1994, later expanded into a book, Card and Krueger examined a “natural experiment”. In 1992 the US state of New Jersey increased its minimum wage to be the highest in the US. The neighbouring state of Pennsylvania did not.

Surveying fast food workers either side of the border

Fast food outlets employ many workers on the minimum wage.

Card and Krueger surveyed around 400 outlets on either side of the state border. They wanted to see whether there was any difference in the changes in the numbers of workers employed in the cities that were near each other but differed only in what they had done to the minimum wage.

They found “no indication” that the rise in the minimum wage cost jobs.

A 2021 study found support for minimum wages had spread to institutions as well-pedigreed as the International Monetary Fund and the OECD.

It described Card and Kreuger’s paper as “central to this change in view”.

Card and Kreuger’s work has been cited in judgements of Australia’s Fair Work Commission.

It means their work has helped determine the incomes of low wage workers in a country half a world away, a classic example of economist John Maynard Keynes’ dictum about the impact of academic scribblers.

“Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air,” Keynes wrote, “are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back”.

‘Natural experiments’

In another study casting doubt on received wisdom, Card examined the impact of immigration on the wages and employment of locals. He found it was tiny.

A sad aspect of this year’s Nobel is that Card could not share it with his co-author.

Alan Kreuger arguably made an even greater contribution to economics. His work ranged from the economics of inequality and rock music to terrorism.

Read more:
Resistance to raising the minimum wage reflects obsolete thinking

Kreuger also served as chair of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers. Tragically he took his own life in 2019. Nobels are not awarded posthumously.

Instead the prize was shared with Joshua Angrist and Guido Imbens. Their Nobels were for “methodological contributions to the analysis of causal relationships”.

In many cases economists can’t do controlled experiments. Governments are reluctant to boost the minimum wages of just half of the workforce so that economists can see what happens.

Read more:
Nobel economics prize winners showed economists how to turn the real world into their laboratory

Instead economists create “natural experiments” using things such as the differences between cities on either side of borders. Angrist and Imbens helped establish a framework for how to conduct them.

The award of this year’s Nobel to three US-based men did little to point to diversity in economics.

Male, middle-aged, American

A possible indicator of a future winner is that Susan Athey was this month elected 2022 President of the American Economics Association.

Her research interests include the economics of the internet and news media, machine learning, big data and cryptocurrencies.

This year’s winner David Card is the current president of the American Economics Association, as have been many other previous Nobel winners.

Athey was also the first woman to win the John Bates Clark Medal which is awarded to the American economist under the age of 40 judged to have made the most significant contribution to economic thought and knowledge.

Card is one of many John Bates Clark Medal winners to later win a Nobel.

John Hawkins does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Introducing David Card, the 2021 Nobel Prize in Economics winner who made the minimum wage respectable – https://theconversation.com/introducing-david-card-the-2021-nobel-prize-in-economics-winner-who-made-the-minimum-wage-respectable-169715

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lindy Willmott, Professor of Law, Australian Centre for Health Law Research, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland University of Technology

Voluntary assisted dying has been available to eligible Victorians for more than two years, and to Western Australians since July 2021. Laws also passed this year in Tasmania, South Australia and Queensland, with schemes to commence after an implementation period.

On Thursday, New South Wales parliament will debate a bill drafted by independent MP Alex Greenwich. It’s still unclear which way the numbers will go, and whether the bill will pass – it’s likely to be a tight vote.

So how does this bill compare with other state laws? And what should voting MPs take into account?

How is it similar to other state laws?

Overall, the NSW bill reflects the broad Australian voluntary assisted dying model. The eligibility criteria, which determine who can access the scheme, are strict, and note the person must have:

• decision-making capacity
• a condition that is advanced, progressive and will cause death within six months (or 12 months for a neurodegenerative disease), and which causes intolerable suffering.

The request and assessment process also largely reflects laws of other states, including that the person must make three requests, and be assessed as eligible by two senior doctors who have completed mandatory training.

After the patient is assessed as eligible, the NSW bill requires the doctor to apply to the Voluntary Assisted Dying Board for authorisation to proceed. This requirement, which we argue delays the process without adding any further safeguard, is also contained in the Victorian, Tasmanian and South Australian legislation.

The NSW bill permits health professionals to conscientiously object to participation, a feature of all Australian Acts. It also regulates the extent to which institutions can refuse to provide the service. This is also dealt with in the South Australian and Queensland laws.

Consistent with other states, a board will be established to monitor the operation of the NSW Act.

How is it different to other states?

The proposed NSW model differs from (most of) the other laws in two main ways.

First, the period between the person’s first and final request for voluntary assisted dying is five days. It’s nine days in most of the other states, though it’s shorter in Tasmania.

This period may have been shortened in light of emerging evidence from Victoria that patients sometimes die during the process.

Read more:
Victoria’s voluntary assisted dying scheme is challenging and complicated. Some people die while they wait

The second difference is the patient is able to choose between self-administration (where they consume the substance themselves) and practitioner administration (where the doctor administers the substance).

In other states, self-administration is the default method, although the states vary regarding when practitioner administration is permitted.

What happened recently in Queensland?

If the recent Queensland experience is anything to go by, the NSW debate will be calm and measured and, for some MPs, informed by the emerging body of evidence on how the scheme has been operating in Victoria to date.

Queensland passed the legislation by a majority of 61:30 after a debate over three days. Two issues were prominent:

1. the need for greater funding for palliative care (for which there was unanimous support)

2. the extent to which the Queensland public wanted choice at the end of life.

The argument that vulnerable cohorts will disproportionately seek voluntary assisted dying was raised, but did not feature prominently – perhaps because this claim is not supported by the evidence.

Read more:
Voluntary assisted dying could soon be legal in Queensland. Here’s how its bill differs from other states

In voting against the bill, Queensland MP Andrew Powell declared his Christian beliefs influenced his decision, but said “it pains me to disappoint many in my electorate”.

While Mr Powell is to be commended for his transparency, he chose his own religious convictions to guide his vote, rather than seeking to reflect the values of the majority in his electorate.

How is the debate likely to play out in NSW?

Voluntary assisted dying has been debated in NSW on multiple occasions between 1997 and 2017. The Greens initiated most bills, though the 2017 Bill – which lost by only one vote in the Legislative Council – was introduced by Nationals MP Trevor Khan.

This time the debate will occur in an unusual political environment. New premier Dominic Perrottet describes himself as a practising Catholic and opposes voluntary assisted dying. Deputy premier Paul Toole and Labor leader Chris Minns also oppose voluntary assisted dying.

Perrottet will allow a conscience vote, as has been the convention for such bills in Australia for more than 20 years.

The NSW bill will be introduced by an independent, but has around 30 signatories, including government and cross-bench members.

Read more:
FactCheck Q&A: do 80% of Australians and up to 70% of Catholics and Anglicans support euthanasia laws?

MPs should rightly consider a range of factors during this debate, including how the bill achieves its policy objectives and how the many safeguards will operate.

But MPs must also be transparent about the values that guide their decision. Does their vote reflect their own values, or are they seeking to reflect the views of the majority of their constituents?

Lindy Willmott has received funding from the Australian Research Council, the National Health and Medical Research Council and Commonwealth and State Governments for research and training about the law, policy and practice relating to end-of-life care. In relation to voluntary assisted dying, she (with colleagues) has been engaged by the Victorian and Western Australian Governments to design and provide the legislatively-mandated training for doctors involved in voluntary assisted dying in those States. She (with Ben White) has also developed a model Bill for voluntary assisted dying for parliaments to consider. Lindy Willmott is a former member of the board of Palliative Care Australia.

Ben White receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the National Health and Medical Research Council and Commonwealth and State Governments for research and training about the law, policy and practice relating to end-of-life care. In relation to voluntary assisted dying, he (with colleagues) has been engaged by the Victorian and Western Australian Governments to design and provide the legislatively-mandated training for doctors involved in voluntary assisted dying in those States. He (with Lindy Willmott) has also developed a model Bill for voluntary assisted dying for parliaments to consider. Ben White is a recipient of an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (project number FT190100410: Enhancing End-of-Life Decision-Making: Optimal Regulation of Voluntary Assisted Dying) funded by the Australian Government.

– ref. Voluntary assisted dying will be debated in NSW parliament this week. Here’s what to expect – https://theconversation.com/voluntary-assisted-dying-will-be-debated-in-nsw-parliament-this-week-heres-what-to-expect-169468

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexander Larcombe, Associate Professor and Head of Respiratory Environmental Health, Telethon Kids Institute

From October 1, it’s been illegal to buy e-liquids containing nicotine without a prescription from a doctor everywhere in Australia, except South Australia.

But vaping with nicotine-free e-liquids is not illegal in Australia (though in some jurisdictions the e-cigarette devices themselves are illegal).

Vaping is increasing in popularity in Australia, particularly among young people.

I co-led a research team that wanted to find out what’s in the nicotine free e-liquids that vapers inhale, and their potential health effects.

Our study, published this week in The Medical Journal of Australia, found most e-liquids contained chemicals known to cause respiratory issues and lung damage when inhaled. Most contained ingredients that have since been banned by Australia’s drug regulator, the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA).

We also found all e-liquids contained substances for which the health effects of inhalation exposure are unknown.

It’s clear vaping isn’t safe, and e-cigarettes haven’t been approved as smoking cessation devices.

Read more:
Vaping: As an imaging scientist I fear the deadly impact on people’s lungs

What did we study?

A few years ago, we conducted a small study which involved chemically analysing ten e-liquids purchased in Australia. All of them were labelled “nicotine free”.

Our research, published in The Medical Journal of Australia in 2019, was surprising and concerning. We found 60% of the liquids contained nicotine. In some instances, this was at levels high enough not to be just trace contamination.

We also found all ten e-liquids contained a chemical called “2-chlorophenol”, which is often used in pesticides and disinfectants and is a known irritant to the skin and lungs.

Most of the e-liquids also contained “2-aminooctanoic acid, which is an amino acid found in the biological products of mammals, including faeces, urine and blood. Its presence was potentially a result of contamination with one of these substances during the manufacturing or packaging processes.

Our findings prompted us to expand on our previous study.

This time we analysed 65 Australian e-liquids, including using a method aimed at better understanding how heating the e-liquids for vaping might change their chemical components.

This was the most expansive analysis of Australian e-liquids to date, and was led by Curtin University and the Wal-yan Respiratory Research Centre, in conjunction with Lung Foundation Australia, the Minderoo Foundation, and Cancer Council Western Australia.

All of the e-liquids we studied were purchased online or from brick-and-mortar stores across Australia. All were advertised as being “best-sellers”, Australian made, and nicotine free, so it’s likely they’re representative of what many Australian vapers might be using.

None of the e-liquids were labelled with a comprehensive ingredient list, so it’s impossible for users to know what chemicals they’re inhaling. It also means all the e-liquids we tested wouldn’t be compliant with European Union labelling regulations.

Read more:
Vaping is glamourised on social media, putting youth in harm’s way

What else did we find?

Many of the flavouring chemicals we detected are “generally regarded as safe” by the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) when used in foods and drinks. But there’s a big difference between a chemical that’s safe to ingest and one which is safe to inhale long-term.

We also detected nicotine in some e-liquids, however, it was found much less frequently and at much lower concentrations than in our previous study. This may be indicative of a cleaner manufacturing process.

We only tested for “freebase” nicotine, which is typically used in both conventional cigarettes and nicotine replacement therapies. So, the e-liquids may have contained a different type of nicotine, called nicotine salts, which are much more commonly used now than they were a few years ago.

We also found 2-chlorophenol again, although it was only in about half of the e-liquids tested. Regardless, the contamination of e-liquids with this known toxic chemical, which has no valid reason for being present, remains a significant problem.

A range of other chemicals of concern were commonly detected, including benzaldehyde, trans-cinnamaldehyde and menthol. These chemicals are added for their almond, cinnamon and mint flavours, respectively.

Benzaldehyde was found in every e-liquid except four, while menthol and trans-cinnamaldehyde were found in about three-quarters of the e-liquids. The presence of these chemical flavourings was concerning for a number of reasons.

Firstly, they’re all known to alter the effects of nicotine. Menthol makes nicotine more addictive.

Benzaldehyde and trans-cinnamaldehyde are known to inhibit an enzyme called “CYP2A6”. CYP2A6 is responsible for metabolising and detoxifying many drugs humans are exposed to, including nicotine.

When its function is impaired by these flavouring chemicals, it means a vaper using e-liquids containing nicotine is going to have nicotine in their body for a longer period of time before it’s processed by the body.

Benzaldehyde is also a respiratory irritant and can reduce a person’s ability to fight off lung infections. Trans-cinnamaldehyde has even more severe effects on the immune cells in the lung.

Both of these chemicals are now included on the TGA’s list of prohibited e-liquid ingredients, meaning they’re banned in Australian e-liquids. Menthol isn’t banned by the TGA, but it’s prohibited in tobacco cigarettes in some countries. In this study, the e-liquids were analysed before the ban came into force.

This research clearly shows Australian e-liquids contain a range of chemicals that are either known to negatively impact health, or for which the potential health impacts of inhalation exposure are unknown.

A lot more research is needed in this space before informed decisions on both nicotine free and nicotine e-cigarette usage can be made, and to better understand how vaping impacts our health.

The author would like to acknowledge Professor Ben Mullins and Dr Sebastien Allard, of Curtin University, who were co-leads on this research project.

For this study Alexander Larcombe, Ben Mullins and Sebastien Allard received funding from Lung Foundation Australia, Minderoo Foundation and Cancer Council WA. Alexander Larcombe is affiliated with ACOSH – the Australian Council on Smoking and Health.

– ref. Many e-cigarette vaping liquids contain toxic chemicals: new Australian research – https://theconversation.com/many-e-cigarette-vaping-liquids-contain-toxic-chemicals-new-australian-research-169615

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tomas Trescak, Senior Lecturer in Intelligent Systems, Western Sydney University

Graduates entering an ever-more-competitive job market are often unaware of the skills and values they offer employers. The challenge is greater with emerging job roles that require certifications and both multidisciplinary skills and specialist knowledge, even for entry-level positions.

We seek to empower our graduates and maximise their career prospects. New research has enabled us to harness the power of artificial intelligence for a custom-designed course planning and recommendation system for students based on the skills their desired jobs actually require. We named these curriculum delivery models JobFit and ModuLearn.

Read more:
Migration is a quick fix for skills shortages. Building on Australians’ skills is better

JobFit: a career-driven curriculum

JobFit builds on a simple premise of informing students about the skills they will gain by completing a knowledge unit. This helps students to analyse skills gained from an individual study pathway and how these relate to career prospects.

Students can explore and experiment with various pathways. This “what if?” analysis is tailored to their career goals and knowledge preferences. The system monitors their study progress and proactively offers alternative pathways to maximise their acquisition of skills related to their goals.

We base the skills on recognised frameworks. For science, technology and business, we use the Skills for Information Age (SFIA) framework version 8, defining 121 skills, each on seven different levels.

For example, performing a basic risk assessment in an organisation requires “information security” skill at the lowest level. At the highest level it enables the person to design organisational and governmental policies assuring global information security.

Governments and organisations in Australia, United States, United Kingdom and European Union have created datasets using SFIA skills to define desired job profiles.

Drawing on these datasets, we designed a prototypical course-planning tool. (To login, please provide your email and role you would like to play in the system. A password is not required.) Western Sydney University students can use it to explore their skill compatibility with ICT job roles.

The chart above shows the compatibility with general role profiles, for Bachelor of ICT students considering junior-level positions. The video below shows the possibilities of this tool.

This approach has several benefits. First, students understand how their studies develop their skills. They can then set career-driven goals and make well-informed decisions about their study pathways.

Solid understanding of skills and knowing how to express these in CVs and cover letters are increasingly important. This is because human resource departments are adopting automated approaches to search for and filter out candidates, using algorithmic processing and text mining.

We can use SFIA to express skills in technology-related areas. However, it does not apply to other areas such as engineering, human sciences, law or medicine.

We are looking at acquiring data from an external partner to analyse and process required skills from live job offers across all industries. We will then be able to inform students on the quantity, variety and compatibility of actual job offers in any industry based on their knowledge profile.

This approach will also benefit curriculum designers facing the challenges of new subjects being rapidly introduced to maintain an advantage over competitors. The result is often an incoherent curriculum, particularly when it comes to meeting industry and employer needs.

A lack of understanding of what skills are desired in the job market and ad-hoc additions have led to programs that do not provide clear study pathways and relevance to work roles. Our model allows curriculum designers to analyse and validate their curriculum against job market needs.

Last, working with industry partners, we defined custom job profiles for the industry area of interest and locality. Students who target such custom skill sets are in a stronger position when applying for work with an industry partner.

Read more:
How work-integrated learning helps to make billions in uni funding worth it

ModuLearn: promoting cross-disciplinary skills

Informing students on the skills they are acquiring is only half of the job. A student must also acquire all their desired skills in a relatively short period.

In undergraduate degrees, much of the course is typically pre-defined with core subjects. Students are often left with only one or two semesters to focus their knowledge on particular employers’ desired skill set. It’s even more of problem in shorter courses such as diplomas or certificates.

It’s likely too that a student’s faculty or school does not offer some critical skills. Students are often reluctant to study in a different school or faculty, fearing the challenge of a new environment.

To overcome these issues, we looked at ways to increase the variety and number of knowledge units with diverse skills. We found inspiration in Charles Sturt University’s Engineering Topic Tree. It allows students to customise their degree by choosing from over 1,000 different topics. Topics are organised by disciplines, with well-organised prerequisites and pathways.

What this topic tree lacks is the backing of technology that allows students to easily explore all their options. We built on the topic tree idea and designed skill-informed modules. These are study units usually lasting two to eight weeks. Each module clearly defines the skills required as prerequisites and the skills it delivers.

An intertwined network of modules delivers fundamental and applied knowledge but each module requires less of a commitment from students than semester-long subjects. We hope in this way to encourage students to study across disciplines.

However, managing all the possible module combinations, prerequisites and user preferences is a significant technological challenge. This called for novel research, not just an application of existing AI approaches.

Read more:
Artificial intelligence is now part of our everyday lives – and its growing power is a double-edged sword

Working with the Artificial Intelligence Research Institute (IIIA) in Barcelona, we developed technological means to design and maintain a module-based curriculum for both curriculum designers and students. Delivery models can be adapted to different public or private financing options and educational standards, such as the Australian Qualifications Framework (AQF).

Curriculum development tends to lag behind technology development and shifting market needs. Ideally, curriculum development should be more responsive and future-focused rather than reactive. With smaller modules instead of semester-long subjects, it is possible to adapt much more quickly to ever-changing job market needs.

I would like to acknowledge the rest of our team, Professor Juan Antonio Rodriguez and Dr Filippo Bistafa from IIIA, Spain, Ms Lynn Berry, Professor Simeon Simoff and Professor Andrew Francis from Western Sydney University.

Tomas Trescak does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How AI can guide course design and study choices to help graduates get the jobs they want – https://theconversation.com/how-ai-can-guide-course-design-and-study-choices-to-help-graduates-get-the-jobs-they-want-167055

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

Never has an inquiry into the skyrocketing price of homes been more urgent.

Rarely has one been as insultingly ill-suited as the one under way right now.

Midway through last year in the midst of COVID, the average forecast of the 22 leading economists who took part in The Conversation mid-year survey was for no increase in home prices whatsoever in the year ahead (actually for slight falls).

At that time the typical (median) Sydney house price was A$1 million, where it stayed until the end of the year.

Then it took off. In the ten months to the start of this month the typical Sydney house price soared $300,000 to $1.3 million – a breathtaking increase (and an awfully big penalty for delaying buying) of $1,000 each day.

For apartments, the increase isn’t as big, although still extraordinary. The cost of delaying buying a typical Sydney apartment has been $334 each day.

The cost of delaying buying a typical Melbourne house has been close to $600 per day, the cost of delaying buying a typical Melbourne apartment $150 per day.

Read more:
Home prices are climbing alright, but not for the reason you might think

In that time, in the year in which the typical Australian home price climbed 20.3%, the typical Australian wage climbed just 1.7%

What people stretched to the limit or now locked out of the housing market are desperate to know is

• why it is happening

• when it is likely to stop

• what (if anything) we can do about it.

Instead, we have been given an inquiry into affordability in name only. Seriously. The parliamentary inquiry commissioned by the treasurer in July and chaired by backbencher Jason Falinski is called an inquiry into affordability and supply, but the word “affordability” appears in none of its three terms of reference.

It’s an inquiry into ‘supply’

Instead, the terms of reference refer to the impact of taxes, charges and other things settings on “housing supply”.

I guess the idea is that it is obvious that supply is the key to affordability, but it rather negates the idea of holding an inquiry, and it sits oddly with the explosion in prices we have seen in a year in which building approvals have surged by a near-record 224,000 and our population has as good as stayed still.

In its submission to the inquiry the Reserve Bank includes a graph showing the supply of housing (the stock of houses and apartments) outpacing population growth for the best part of the decade leading up to the latest price explosion.

Supply has been holding up

But in a sense (and stay with me here) whoever drafted the restricted terms of reference is right. Housing affordability is linked to the supply of housing.

And housing affordability has been doing okay.

In evidence to the inquiry last month Treasury assistant secretary John Swieringa drew a distinction between housing affordability (best measured by the cost of renting housing) and the cost of buying a house, which was partly an investment.

When you are a purchaser of a house you are partly investing in an asset and partly buying dwelling services; whereas when you are renting it’s probably a cleaner read on what cost dwelling services is.

That clean read – rent as a proportion of income – hasn’t much changed in 20 years. For middle earners it has remained comfortably between 20% and 25% of household disposable income.

The Reserve Bank says advertised rents for units in Sydney and Melbourne have drifted down by $30 to $50 per week over the past five years while rents in other places have mostly drifted higher.

As it happens, it says another measure of housing affordability is also improving.

The cost of home loan payments as a proportion of income has been falling since the onset of COVID. Dramatically lower interest rates mean payments take up less household disposable income than they did five years ago, even with the much higher prices.

The problem is accessibility

What has changed is what the Reserve Bank calls “housing accessibility”, to distinguish it from housing affordability.

Accessibility is the ability of a first time owner or renter to get into the market at all by finding the deposit or bond.

Astounding price growth and five years of weak income growth have pushed up the cost of an average first home deposit from 70% of income to more than 80%.

On average it now takes a 24-35 year old nine years of tucking away one fifth of their income each year to save for a typical Sydney deposit, up from five to six years a decade ago.

Average First Home Buyer Deposit

It’s okay if you have a parent who can get their hands on money, almost impossible if you don’t. In the words of former Reserve Bank official Peter Tulip, it’s making home ownership hereditary.

He’s not the first person to have noticed.

Liberal backbencher John Alexander chaired the Coalition’s 2015 inquiry into home ownership. He said then we were “on track to becoming a Kingdom where the Lords own all the land and the biggest Lord will be King and the enslaved serf tenant is paying rent to the Lord to become wealthier”.

Ownership is becoming hereditary

Prime Minister Turnbull and Treasurer Scott Morrison used the 2016 election (in which they attacked Labor’s plan to limit tax breaks for landlords) to shut down Alexander’s inquiry, and only agreed to restart it with someone else as chair. It had considered 30 hours of evidence.

The chair of this current (limited) inquiry seems unperturbed.

He opened September’s hearings saying no question was off-limits, no idea too stupid, all forms of inquiry were worthwhile. It’d be great if that was true.

Peter Martin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. As home prices soar beyond reach, we have a government inquiry almost designed not to tell us why – https://theconversation.com/as-home-prices-soar-beyond-reach-we-have-a-government-inquiry-almost-designed-not-to-tell-us-why-168959

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

Never has an inquiry into the skyrocketing price of homes been more urgent.

Rarely has one been as insultingly ill-suited as the one underway right now.

Midway through last year in the midst of COVID, the average forecast of the 22 leading economists who took part in The Conversation mid-year survey was for no increase in home prices whatsoever in the year ahead (actually for slight falls).

At that time the typical (median) Sydney house price was A$1 million, where it stayed until the end of the year.

Then it took off. In the ten months to the start of this month the typical Sydney house price soared $300,000 to $1.3 billion – a breathtaking increase (and an awfully big penalty for delaying buying) of $1,000 each day.

For apartments, the increase isn’t as big, although still extraordinary. The cost of delaying buying a typical Sydney apartment has been $334 each day.

The cost of delaying buying a typical Melbourne house has been close to $600 per day, the cost of delaying buying a typical Melbourne apartment $150 per day.

Read more:
Home prices are climbing alright, but not for the reason you might think

In that time, in the year in which the typical Australian home price climbed 20.3%, the typical Australian wage climbed just 1.7%

What people stretched to the limit or now locked out of the housing market are desperate to know is

• why it is happening

• when it is likely to stop

• what (if anything) we can do about it.

Instead, we have been given an inquiry into affordability in name only. Seriously. The parliamentary inquiry commissioned by the treasurer in July and chaired by backbencher Jason Falinski is called an inquiry into affordability and supply, but the word “affordability” appears in none of its three terms of reference.

It’s an inquiry into ‘supply’

Instead, the terms of reference refer to the impact of taxes, charges and other things settings on “housing supply”.

I guess the idea is that it is obvious that supply is the key to affordability, but it rather negates the idea of holding an inquiry, and it sits oddly with the explosion in prices we have seen in a year in which building approvals have surged by a near-record 224,000 and our population has as good as stayed still.

In its submission to the inquiry the Reserve Bank includes a graph showing the supply of housing (the stock of houses and apartments) outpacing population growth for the best part of the decade leading up to the latest price explosion.

Supply has been holding up

But in a sense (and stay with me here) whoever drafted the restricted terms of reference is right. Housing affordability is linked to the supply of housing.

And housing affordability has been doing okay.

In evidence to the inquiry last month Treasury assistant secretary John Swieringa drew a distinction between housing affordability (best measured by the cost of renting housing) and the cost of buying a house, which was partly an investment.

When you are a purchaser of a house you are partly investing in an asset and partly buying dwelling services; whereas when you are renting it’s probably a cleaner read on what cost dwelling services is.

That clean read – rent as a proportion of income – hasn’t much changed in 20 years. For middle earners it has remained comfortably between 20% and 25% of household disposable income.

The Reserve Bank says advertised rents for units in Sydney and Melbourne have drifted down by $30 to $50 per week over the past five years while rents in other places have mostly drifted higher.

As it happens, it says another measure of housing affordability is also improving.

The cost of home loan payments as a proportion of income has been falling since the onset of COVID. Dramatically lower interest rates mean payments take up less household disposable income than they did five years ago, even with the much higher prices.

The problem is accessibility

What has changed is what the Reserve Bank calls “housing accessibility”, to distinguish it from housing affordability.

Accessibility is the ability of a first time owner or renter to get into the market at all by finding the deposit or bond.

Astounding price growth and five years of weak income growth have pushed up the cost of an average first home deposit from 70% of income to more than 80%.

On average it now takes a 24-35 year old nine years of tucking away one fifth of their income each year to save for a typical Sydney deposit, up from five to six years a decade ago.

Average First Home Buyer Deposit

It’s okay if you have a parent who can get their hands on money, almost impossible if you don’t. In the words of former Reserve Bank official Peter Tulip, it’s making home ownership hereditary.

He’s not the first person to have noticed.

Liberal backbencher John Alexander chaired the Coalition’s 2015 inquiry into home ownership. He said then we were “on track to becoming a Kingdom where the Lords own all the land and the biggest Lord will be King and the enslaved serf tenant is paying rent to the Lord to become wealthier”.

Ownership is becoming hereditary

Prime Minister Turnbull and Treasurer Scott Morrison used the 2016 election (in which they attacked Labor’s plan to limit tax breaks for landlords) to shut down Alexander’s inquiry, and only agreed to restart it with someone else as chair. It had considered 30 hours of evidence.

The chair of this current (limited) inquiry seems unperturbed.

He opened September’s hearings saying no question was off-limits, no idea too stupid, all forms of inquiry were worthwhile. It’d be great if that was true.

Peter Martin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. As home prices soar beyond reach, we’ve a government inquiry almost designed not to tell us why – https://theconversation.com/as-home-prices-soar-beyond-reach-weve-a-government-inquiry-almost-designed-not-to-tell-us-why-168959

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brianna Chesser, Senior Lecturer in Criminology and Justice, RMIT University

The Australian Capital Territory has set a legal precedent by becoming the first jurisdiction in Australia – and one of just a few in the world – to outlaw the act of “stealthing”, or the non-consensual removal of a condom during sex.

The ACT’s amended Crimes Act now makes it illegal to remove a condom during sex or to not use a condom at all, in circumstances when condom use was previously agreed on.

The legislation was introduced by Liberals’ leader Elizabeth Lee, who said it was aimed at providing clarity in the law before someone became a victim.

We cannot wait for cases to come before courts before stealthing is specifically outlawed – we need to act proactively and send a clear message to the community that this behaviour is unacceptable and a crime.

How prevalent is stealthing?

Stealthing is not a new issue in the community, but it has only recently come to the attention of lawmakers in many countries.

In 2015, journalist and author Monica Tan described stealthing as “sort-of” rape after she was stealthed by her then-partner.

In 2017, American civil rights lawyer Alexandra Brodsky described the act as being “rape-adjacent”, inspiring a bill in California that just became law.

In the same year, Triple J’s Hack program in Australia shared stories from both stealthing survivors and perpetrators. Stealthing has also been depicted recently on the screen, in Michaela Coel’s television series I May Destroy You.

In specifically changing the law to criminalise stealthing, the ACT has recognised the inherent harm caused by the action to the physical and psychological well-being of survivors.

Recent studies suggest stealthing affects more members of our community than we might think. A 2018 study by Monash University and the Melbourne Sexual Health Centre surveyed 2,000 people and found one in three women, and almost one in five men who have sex with men, had experienced stealthing.

A 2019 paper published in the National Library of Medicine in the US found 12% of women aged 21 to 30 reported an experience with stealthing.

Another American study of men between the ages of 21 and 30 found that 10% had non-consensually removed a condom during sex. Those men admitted having done so, on average, three to four times in their lives.

Read more:
Rape, sexual assault and sexual harassment: what’s the difference?

Stealthing cases before the courts

Courts in numerous countries, including New Zealand, Germany, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, have deemed stealthing to be sexual assault.

These countries, however, have fallen short of specifically outlawing stealthing in legislation.

In Australia, there has been much debate over whether stealthing is already included under existing sex crimes laws, or if it needs to be specifically written into the law.

Some argue stealthing already falls under the existing law that states a person does not consent to sex if he or she is mistaken about the “nature of the act”.

However, legal experts argue that in cases where stealthing occurs, the sexual nature of the act is understood, but the condition placed on the consent – condom use – is what is not agreed on.

There is a case involving stealthing currently before the courts in Victoria, but it has been significantly delayed by COVID-19 and will not be heard until 2022.

It was hoped this case would set a legal precedent and ultimately lead to a change to the state’s sex crimes law. However, parliament is unlikely to look at changing any laws until the case is adjudicated.

Read more:
Case in Victoria could set new legal precedent for stealthing, or removing condom during sex

California takes a different approach

California’s new law, which also passed last week, is the first in the US to specifically outlaw stealthing. This law also provides a persuasive precedent for other states and countries to follow.

California has taken a different approach to the ACT. The new law adds stealthing to the state’s civil definition of sexual battery, allowing victims to sue perpetrators for damages.

It would not, however, make stealthing a crime that could result in jail time. Assemblywoman Cristina Garcia has failed on two previous occasions to pass a law criminalising the act.

The difficulty in passing stealthing laws reflects a general reluctance to make the act a criminal offence. US legal commentators said stealthing could already be considered “misdemeanor sexual battery” in California, even though it isn’t explicitly mentioned in the state’s criminal code.

The reluctance appears to come from the potential difficulties of legally proving an intentional act of stealthing. Importantly, though, legal analysts acknowledged that stealthing was rarely prosecuted in California under the state’s old misdemeanor laws – indicating the need for further legislative clarity.

Both the ACT and Californian laws are a step in the right direction, demonstrating the need for a new legal approach. As Brodsky, the civil rights lawyer, put it,

I think law, at its best, can express a community norm and how we should treat each other. I do think a lot of survivors would find affirmation in the fact that this state legislature agreed what happened to them was wrong.

Brianna Chesser does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. In an Australian first, stealthing is now illegal in the ACT. Could this set a precedent for the country? – https://theconversation.com/in-an-australian-first-stealthing-is-now-illegal-in-the-act-could-this-set-a-precedent-for-the-country-169629

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bronwyn Carlson, Professor, Indigenous Studies, Macquarie University

This article mentions the ongoing colonial violence towards Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people

This week, actress Sam Frost made headlines for the use of the word “segregation” in an Instagram video. Frost, who is white, spoke emotionally about how her choice to remain unvaccinated made her feel “less of a human” in Australian society.

The video, which Frost has now deleted, refers to New South Wales easing restrictions on travel and socialising. She complains that vaccinated people are allowed out of lockdown as of October 11, while unvaccinated people have to wait until December 1.

The post received significant critique on social media where some called it an expression of white privilege.

By invoking segregation to describe what she frames as prejudice against her vaccination status, Frost likened her experiences as a white settler with unimpeded access to free health care to the violent racial discrimination, incarceration and forced removal experienced by Indigenous and migrant communities in Australia.

Comments like Frost’s demonstrate ignorance towards the many structural inequalities experienced by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities and other marginalised peoples in Australia.

Settlers co-opting language they’ve used to oppress

Frost’s comments are part of a trend of white public figures and officials co-opting language describing racial violence and colonial government policies for their own means.

White settlers are co-opting terms like “medical apartheid” and “lynch mob”. These terms are used to describe inconveniences rather than the systemic injustices and violence they actually refer to.

In 2019, Donald Trump, then president of the United States, referred to his impeachment inquiry as “a lynching”.

Earlier this year, a deputy president at the Fair Work Commission, Lyndall Dean, likened vaccine mandates to “medical apartheid”.

Read more:
Whiteness in the time of COVID: Australia’s health services still leaving vulnerable communities behind

Using terms like these is controversial not only because it appears to trivialise the mistreatment of marginalised people, but also because language communicates power. This is especially true in settler colonial nations like Australia and the United States. In these countries, white settlers use language to control, terrorise and marginalise Indigenous peoples, refugees and migrants.

Settler governments use language to create racial policies, including the forced removal and segregation of Aboriginal people. This entailed moving families off their homelands and onto missions and reserve lands where many people still live to this day.

So when terms like segregation are used, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people are reminded what they really mean. Even if the person invoking it is only talking about having to stay inside.

The pandemic has highlighted privilege

White settlers and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples have not been impacted the same by the COVID-19 pandemic. White women like Frost feel free to deny free, potentially life-saving health care. Aboriginal women with COVID-19, meanwhile, are turned away from hospitals and fined for driving to get groceries.

Racial discrimination and segregation in Australia is not a thing of the past. Neither lockdown measures, nor the COVID vaccination rollout, have been equal or racially neutral.

Many have noted the differences of lockdown measures across suburbs. Western Sydney, which has one of the largest Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and migrant populations in Australia, was heavily policed during lockdown. Whereas, the affluent eastern and inner city suburbs had more relaxed restrictions.

The New South Wales government has not prioritised regional Aboriginal communities in COVID-19 plans. As a result, communities in Wilcannia, Dubbo and Bourke have been subject to deadly outbreaks, slower vaccination rates, and military presence.

As states and territories begin reopening, the levels of anxiety and dread are rising in these communities – especially in places where less than 35% of Aboriginal and Torres Islander people over the age of 12 are double vaccinated.

This is one reason why Aboriginal health services are racing to make sure people in our communities are getting vaccinated.

Read more:
Hidden women of history: Isabel Flick, the tenacious campaigner who fought segregation in Australia

A history of medical apartheid

Any vaccine hesitancy in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities is understandable considering the history of racialised medical violence in Australia. This includes medical experimentation in “lock hospitals”, where some people never returned from.

African-American medical ethicist Harriet A. Washington has researched similar instances of what she refers to as “medical apartheid” in the US. Washington writes of the way western medicine both neglects and relies on the abuse of Black and Indigenous peoples.

In Australia, Aboriginal community-controlled health organisations continue to respond to issues caused by racism in mainstream health services. We are only just beginning to see how much lockdown measures and barriers to accessing health care have harmed and endangered marginalised communities.

Much of what we know so far is thanks to diverse journalists covering events as they unfold at ABC, SBS and NITV. There has also been grassroots coverage from marginalised communities through media outlets such as IndigenousX and Transdemic.

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities are also battling vaccine and COVID misinformation. Commentary from Frost and other Instagram influencers is not only dangerous, but also spreads inaccurate narratives of white victimhood.

It is a privilege to reject life-saving health interventions while others experience structural barriers to appropriate medical care.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Sam Frost knows nothing about segregation: white settlers co-opting terms used to oppress – https://theconversation.com/sam-frost-knows-nothing-about-segregation-white-settlers-co-opting-terms-used-to-oppress-169613

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexander Gillespie, Professor of Law, University of Waikato

The political temperature is rising in the South China Sea, and its effects will be felt in the South Pacific before long.

Recent incursions by the Chinese air force into Taiwan’s air defence zone have ratcheted up already tense relations, with the US and Australia both warning China about undermining regional peace and stability.

Chinese shows of strength are nothing new, but these air incursions have gone from about 300 last year to 500 in the first nine months of 2021 – primarily near the contested Pratas Island, occupied by the Taiwanese military but also claimed by China.

With Britain recently dispatching a warship through the Taiwan Strait, and Japan talking of potentially helping to defend Taiwan, New Zealand is again placed in the difficult position of balancing its traditional alliances with its largely neutral and trade-dependent relationship with China.

A diplomatic tightrope

The complexities of Taiwan’s place in the modern era can be traced back to the war in Vietnam and the American rapprochement with China that helped end it. Having previously been seen as a bulwark against communism by the West, Taiwan found itself on the outer.

New Zealand followed the US in switching diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing and has since adhered to a “one China policy” that stipulates Taiwan is an inalienable part of the territory of the People’s Republic of China.

Read more:
Why Taiwan remains calm in the face of unprecedented military pressure from China

So while New Zealand does not maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan, it has a vibrant trading, economic and cultural relationship, including a trade agreement worth about $NZ2.12 billion annually.

This all presents ongoing diplomatic challenges. For example, because of Taiwan’s excellent COVID-19 response, New Zealand supported their having observer status at the World Health Organization – earning a rebuke from China.

Even more awkwardly, Taiwan has applied to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the trade pact designed by the Obama presidency to prevent Chinese trade dominance. Donald Trump subsequently refused to sign, but China now wants to sign.

All eyes on the US

It might almost be amusing if it weren’t so dangerous. It has been a long-standing article of faith in Beijing that Taiwan would be reunited with China under some kind of one-country-two-systems arrangement – with Hong Kong the model.

This vision ran headlong into the reality of what has happened to Hong Kong’s autonomy after Chinese reunification.

Nonetheless, Chinese President Xi Jinping has continued to insist “complete reunification” with Taiwan will happen. And China has made clear that any attempt by Taiwan to reach for full and formal independence would mean war.

Read more:
Taiwan: how the ‘porcupine doctrine’ might help deter armed conflict with China

While the US Taiwan Relations Act does not obligate military intervention if Taiwan were attacked, it does contain a promise to provide the means of defence. Just how the US would respond, however, is hard to predict. On balance, it’s likely it would get involved.

Taiwan now shares American democratic values and Joe Biden has a poor relationship with China. The pressure to lead in the event of a Chinese annexation, especially in front of US regional allies, would be strong.

And the secret deployment by Trump (continued under Biden) of special operations troops to help train the Taiwanese military does not suggest a hands-off approach.

Principles should guide policy

For New Zealand, navigating a middle path between China and the US is becoming increasingly complex. The Ardern government has criticised China for cyber-attacks, but taken a softer stance on human rights abuse. For better or worse, New Zealand was not included in the recent AUKUS agreement.

But this also opens up opportunities for independent thinking about keeping the peace, based on New Zealand’s recently stated five foreign policy principles: respect for the rules, openness, inclusivity, respect for sovereignty, and transparency.

Read more:
The AUKUS pact, born in secrecy, will have huge implications for Australia and the region

That means New Zealand respects Chinese sovereignty and the one-China policy. To avoid doubt, this would involve clearly stating New Zealand does not support calls for the formal independence of Taiwan.

At the same time, by reiterating support for the status quo, New Zealand would by implication be calling for Chinese military restraint in the contested zones around Taiwan, and the exit of American military trainers in Taiwan.

Towards a rule-based order

Inclusivity and openness can be promoted by supporting Taiwan’s membership of international organisations and agreements, especially where China and Taiwan might mutually benefit.

Most importantly, New Zealand can stand for a system of international relations based on negotiation and independent adjudication of disputes.

Read more:
New drives to counter China come with a major risk: throwing fuel on the Indo-Pacific arms race

If there are gaps in the rules governing control of disputed islands or increased regional militarisation, New Zealand should offer to help draft and negotiate new ones. Calls for a peaceful resolution of territorial disputes in the South China Sea should be consistently applied to both China and Taiwan.

Ultimately, only a rule-based international order can secure a peaceful future for large and small states alike.

Alexander Gillespie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Taiwan is becoming a flashpoint for China and the West – how does New Zealand respond? – https://theconversation.com/taiwan-is-becoming-a-flashpoint-for-china-and-the-west-how-does-new-zealand-respond-169532

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Roger Patulny, Associate Professor of Sociology, University of Wollongong

Many of us have been struggling with isolation and loneliness during COVID lockdowns, despite the increase in online interactions.

Amid concerns over lost friendships and social skills, people may be wondering if their social lives will “go back to normal” as restrictions begin to lift around the country.

Our new study looks at what happened to Australians’ social lives during lockdown. The findings suggest COVID may have had a long-term impact on our friendships, and not necessarily for the better.

Our study

During 2020-21, we surveyed more than 2,000 Australians about their experiences during and after lockdown. Each person was surveyed three times, and asked about their interactions, lifestyles and plans.

Our survey approach was qualitative, letting us capture the respondents’ detailed, personal experiences of lockdown in their own words. Participants came from every state and territory, ranged in age from 18 to 88, and around two-thirds were female.

Australia is uniquely positioned for this kind of study, thanks to our (temporary) early exit from lockdown in 2020. This means we were able to find out about Australians’ COVID experience both during and many months post-lockdown.

Loneliness is a serious social and health issue, linked to poor mental health and early death. It occurs when our relationships don’t meet our social needs – so we can be lonely if either the quantity or quality of our friendships break down.

Social scientists have been concerned about loneliness in recent decades because of such things as rising individualism in our culture and an increase in single person households. COVID may have accelerated the impact of such changes.

Indeed, many of the Australians we surveyed reported a reduction in the quality and size of their friendships, not just at the height of the pandemic last year, but months after lockdown finished in 2020.

Why is this so? And what does this mean as we once again begin to emerge from lockdowns again?

Increased disconnection

Unsurprisingly, many participants reported an increase in disconnection and loneliness during lockdown. Interactions with friends were “just not the same”. More concerning, though, was that these feelings continued months after lockdown had ended. Some respondents described a lasting impact on their attitudes to friendship and socialising.

Everyone became withdrawn … No one wants to hang out anymore.

Another respondent noted:

We have remained in contact through social media and video calls, but have drifted to some degree.

A sense of social fatigue and apathy was visible in many accounts months after lockdown. As respondents explained: “face-to-face feels tiring”. Another interviewee noted:

COVID has given me licence to withdraw into myself more. Now things are opening up I don’t want to come back out.

Shrinking friendship networks

Participants also described how friendship networks shrank as they “pruned” out more distant connections during lockdown. They described this as “more time with close friends. Less time with acquaintances”.

Some participants’ networks shrank because of a lack of opportunity to catch up, others described how pandemic stress left them wanting to connect only with those they cared about most. Unfortunately for many, friendship networks remained smaller months after lockdown.

Continued restrictions on group activities extended feelings of disconnection. Younger people were also prevented from forming new relationships as university study moved online and many casual jobs were cut.

meeting someone feels pretty impossible this year.

Those who moved back home to save money also experienced social disruption – stuck inside with family instead of friends or colleagues.

What about new or improved online friendships?

Although lockdown physically disconnected people, it massively increased social media use, online gaming and videoconferencing.

Lockdowns, together with this boom in digital communication, helped connect distant friends:

I’m closer to friends as we are forced to connect online… no more making excuses about being busy (like) pre-COVID.

But this could not overcome an overall increase in loneliness or adequately substitute for physical interaction. Our data attributes this to “touch hunger” or lost physical connection, and a dissatisfaction with videoconferencing:

Zoom always seems so forced.

The importance of ‘regrowing’ in-person friendships

Previous studies have found digital communication can help reduce loneliness when used for interactive (rather than passive/lurking) purposes to help shore up existing in-person relationships.

Read more:
‘I tell everyone I love being on my own, but I hate it’: what older Australians want you to know about loneliness

But our study shows shows how digital connections cannot make up for in-person friendships post-COVID on their own.

We should be careful before embracing changes that entrench our reliance on digital interaction, like completely virtual offices. Instead, we must remember the value (and fun!) of in-person socialising and take care to reconnect with old and new friends going forward.

Our study shows we cannot take post-COVID socialising for granted. It will not necessarily snap back to the way it was, once restrictions ease. We will have to make conscious efforts to meet with old friends and make new ones when we are allowed to do so in person.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Lonely after lockdown? How COVID may leave us with fewer friends if we are not careful – https://theconversation.com/lonely-after-lockdown-how-covid-may-leave-us-with-fewer-friends-if-we-are-not-careful-168844

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Duckett, Director, Health and Aged Care Program, Grattan Institute

So far in the pandemic, state public health advice has been front and centre of public messaging about protecting the community from the spread of COVID-19.

But merely following the public health orders won’t necessarily meet employers’ obligations to protect staff from COVID, especially as restrictions ease in the Eastern states.

Protecting employees from COVID is good for staff, of course, and also good for the organisation because it will reduce the potential for staff being off sick.

Vaccination alone won’t guarantee a COVID-safe workplace. Even double-vaccinated people can be infected. Vaccination reduces the chance of infection by between 60% (AstraZeneca) and 80% (Pfizer). And double-vaccinated people can also transmit the virus, although again at a much lower rate.

As part of the scientific advisory group OzSAGE, we’re issuing guidance to employers about creating COVID-safe working environments. We propose organisations follow a four-level hierarchy of COVID controls.

Level 1: vaccination and working from home

The most effective protections against COVID are vaccinating to reduce the risk of infection, and limiting interactions with infected people. These are the two standard public health measures seen in state public health orders.

Employers should encourage employees to get vaccinated by providing:

• leave or paid time off to get vaccinated
• reliable and up-to-date information on the effectiveness of vaccinations
• the details of the locations nearby where vaccinations are available
• on-site vaccination, if possible, for shift workers and those who can’t easily attend a GP or vaccine hub appointment
• incentives, such as additional annual leave days for vaccinated workers.

In some circumstances – especially where the organisation is responsible for caring for people at a higher risk of infection – mandatory vaccination of employees might also be considered.

Read more:
If you’re going to mandate COVID vaccination at your workplace, here’s how to do it ethically

Staff should be encouraged to work from home if that’s possible, while risk of infection is still high. Working from home doesn’t eliminate the risk of COVID, but it eliminates the risk of contracting (and transmitting) COVID in the workplace.

Putting in place “hybrid” working arrangements reduces the number of people in the workplace at any one time, and therefore the risk of transmission.

Level 2: safe indoor air

State public health orders have essentially focused on density limits. These are important, but don’t guarantee good ventilation and clean air.

COVID spreads by aerosols. Respiratory aerosols from breathing and speaking accumulate in indoor spaces, resulting in increasing risk over time.

Poor ventilation (stagnant air) in public buildings, workplaces, schools, hospitals, and aged care homes contributes to viral spread.

Read more:
Australia must get serious about airborne infection transmission. Here’s what we need to do

Good ventilation is a key part of reducing the risk of COVID transmission.

As the number of people inside a space increases, CO₂ will increase to varying degrees, depending on the effectiveness of ventilation and the volume of the space. Measuring carbon dioxide (CO₂) is therefore a useful surrogate indicator to assess the relative infection risk of COVID in an indoor space.

It’s recommended employers invest in CO₂ monitoring and use that as a trigger to reduce occupancy and/or increase the provision of outdoor air and HEPA (high-efficiency particulate air) filtering to ensure the risk of COVID-19 is appropriately mitigated.

Having automated alerts (in non-HEPA filtered areas) from CO₂ monitors will prompt action to improve ventilation or leave the workplace.

Level 3: administrative measures

Organisations should be ready to manage COVID outbreaks – especially in New South Wales and Victoria, where public health contact tracing is at capacity.

Organisations might also use regular rapid antigen testing (where practical and feasible, considering cost and logistics), to prevent or limit outbreaks when people are shedding the virus but are asymptomatic.

Read more:
Rapid antigen tests have long been used overseas to detect COVID. Here’s what Australia can learn

The risk of an organisation-wide shutdown can be minimised by creating work bubbles – teams coming to work on different days – and other measures to reduce physical interactions.

Staggering work hours to reduce congregating at lift spaces is another useful, low-cost strategy.

Level 4: masks

COVID-19 is an airborne disease, so the use of masks is integral to reduce transmission and to offer some protection if there is any breakdown of other controls.

Masks are also essential because 30–70% of transmission may be asymptomatic: from infected people who look and feel well and may not be aware they are infected.

Basic cloth masks and surgical masks reduce the transmission of COVID. The effectiveness of masks increases when they fit snugly on the wearer’s face.

Read more:
Evidence shows that, yes, masks prevent COVID-19 – and surgical masks are the way to go

Workers should be provided with appropriate fitted masks and should be trained in how and when to use them. At a minimum, where workplaces are in areas with community transmission of COVID, masks should be worn whenever workers are indoors.

Rates of COVID are still high in NSW, Victoria, and the ACT. Employers, especially in those jurisdictions, should review their work health and safety plans to ensure their workers and customers are properly protected.

This article was co-authored by occupational and environmental physician Karina Powers, engineer and scientist Kate Cole, Flinders University Professor Richard Nunes-Vaz, and other members of the OzSAGE advice for business working group.

Stephen Duckett is member of OzSAGE’s independent experts group.

Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute’s activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities, as disclosed on its website.

– ref. Keeping workers COVID-safe requires more than just following public health orders – https://theconversation.com/keeping-workers-covid-safe-requires-more-than-just-following-public-health-orders-169617

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lurion De Mello, Senior Lecturer in Finance, Macquarie University

Far from emerging from the COVID shock awash with fuel, as might be expected after an economic slowdown, the world is entering a new energy crisis the like of which hasn’t been seen since the 1970s.

European and Asian gas prices are at an all-time high, the oil price is at a three-year high, and the price of coal is soaring on the back of energy shortages across China, India and Germany.

The surge in demand is being driven mostly by recovering economies and anticipated extreme weather across Europe and north-east Asia. China is stockpiling domestic coal and gas reserves, and Russia is reluctant to supply gas to Western Europe.

Closer to home, Australia’s gas prices are soaring, but might soon plummet.

Petrol pandemonium

In Britain, a shortage of the truck drivers who move fuel has led to panic-buying amid fears of a shortage. After Brexit, many European truck drivers went back to their home countries and never returned.

Compounding Britain’s problem was its so-called “windless summer” in which renewable power production was much lower than normal. This put a significant strain on electricity generation as around 40% of its power is produced by wind.

Britain has transitioned away from coal as an electricity source and with low emergency supplies will find it difficult to suddenly switch back to coal.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson remains committed to wind generation and says he wants the UK to become the “Saudi Arabia of wind power” with offshore wind farms generating enough electricity to power every UK home within a decade.

Oil on a roll

Oil prices have soared in response to the windless summer and British and German difficulties in getting access to Russian gas. Those increases will soon hit Australia which imports 80% of its petrol, diesel and jet fuel.

OPEC+ (OPEC and a Russia-led group of oil producers) have agreed to boost production, but only in measured steps.

If and when Britain and Germany resolve their gas supply issues with Russia, perhaps by mid-2022, gas and oil prices will slide.

Read more:
No, Barnaby. The UK energy crisis has nothing to do with its net-zero target, and to suggest otherwise is outrageous

This will put severe pressure on Australia’s 20 to 30 lucrative long-term supply contracts with Japan, South Korea and Taiwan which expire in a few years.

It is possible that other nations in the Indo-Pacific investing heavily in their gas infrastructure, such as Vietnam and India, will pick up the slack.

Coal comfort

The crunch in the gas market is forcing countries to revert to coal for electricity generation and for industry. Thermal coal prices in Asia keep hitting record highs.

In Asia, there isn’t enough coal to meet expected demand. A cold winter followed by a hot summer and stronger economic growth has led to greater Chinese demand. It is the main cause of an emerging electricity crisis in China.

China, which eased up on coal consumption a few months ago to meet emission targets, is back in the market as stockpiles run low. India faces a similar predicament as coal stockpiles are running low.

Read more:
Oil: why higher prices will complicate the energy transition

There is speculation China might do a U-turn on its unofficial ban on Australian coal and once again embrace Australian imports.

In Europe, the early closure of nuclear plants and record gas prices are set to boost coal use. The price for thermal coal is hitting record highs in Europe, and in Australia the price of Newcastle coal is up 250% and close to its 2008 record high.

Future in flux

The crisis suggests the transition to renewables will take longer than expected and be more complicated than expected.

It will cast a shadow over the COP26 UN climate change talks due to begin in Glasgow on October 31.

Lurion De Mello does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Suddenly we are in the middle of a global energy crisis. What happened? – https://theconversation.com/suddenly-we-are-in-the-middle-of-a-global-energy-crisis-what-happened-169614

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Keir Reeves, Professor of History & Director Future Regions Research Centre, Federation University Australia

Review: New Gold Mountain, directed by Corrie Chen.

The beautifully shot and evenly paced New Gold Mountain, the new series from SBS, is an 1850s-era murder mystery set in the Ballarat goldfields during the gold rush heyday.

In 1851, gold was discovered in Ballarat – a little known pastoral outpost of the British empire. News of the strike quickly spread and the town rapidly developed. Initially, the first arrivals came from other parts of Victoria. Others followed from other Australian colonies. Soon after, international arrivals came from all regions of the globe and in 1952 many arrived from Southern China in search of gold.

New Gold Mountain focuses on this Chinese-Australian goldfields experience, primarily from the point of view of Leung Wei Shing (Yoson An), the brooding headman of the Chinese miners and his relationships with his younger, errant brother Leung Wei Sun (Sam Wang) and his loyal assistant Gok (Chris Masters Mah).

The narrative is widened to include Belle Roberts (Alyssa Sutherland), the English widow turned newspaper proprietor; Hattie (Leonie Whyman), the resilient Indigenous woman trying to get by; and Patrick Thomas (Christopher James Baker), the troubled Irish miner whose wife’s disappearance drives the plot.

In their own ways, each character is caught between different cultures, friendships and allegiances in the rapidly forming goldfields frontier society on the far side of the world.

A Chinese Australian tale

Chinese migration patterns to Australia were largely based on regional associations, particularly in the localities of Toi Shan, Sze Yup and Sam Yup in Guangdong, Southern China. These regional associations and “brotherhoods”, as they are referred to in the series, were labour recruiting mechanisms similar to the one Wei Shing runs at this Chinese camp.

Here, Cheung Lei (Mabel Li) brings into play the connections, allegiances and complexities between Chinese gold seekers in the Australian colonies and their backers in China.

On one hand, relations between key characters and groups (primarily between the Chinese and Europeans) are typified by racism and hostility. But there is also cooperation, as Wei Shing and Belle unite to solve the murder. Sometimes there is brutal friendship, as when Wei Shing and the Chinese protector, Standish (Dan Spielman), finally establish exactly where they stand with each other.

Director Corrie Chen and creator Peter Cox pull no punches while maintaining a compelling murder mystery and this lively ensemble offers a nuanced reading of the Australian goldfields experience, telling a mature and ambiguous account of the frontier.

The other stars of the series are the distinctive former mining landscapes and Sovereign Hill providing the visual backdrops for the 1850s goldfields society. You can imagine how startled recent arrivals from the bustling South China trading ports of Guangzhou, Hong Kong and Macau must have been on disembarkation. The flora and fauna – literally everything – was so different to home.

Chen explores this shock in a moment of brief magical realism with Wei Shing’s encounters with a kangaroo. It seems the bush sees all. The Chinese miners and their Indigenous and European counterparts were all coming to terms with a landscape broken by mining and colonised by a disparate society coming to terms with its own experiences and opportunities. New Gold Mountain evocatively captures this moment.

Read more:
Friday essay: the story of Fook Shing, colonial Victoria’s Chinese detective

The gold rush on screen

Australian goldfields life has been shown on television before, notably Rush, the Victorian gold rush era drama from the 1970s.

But the obvious cultural point of reference is Deadwood (2004-06), David Milch’s multi-layered historical narrative based on the 1850s gold-rush town in the Black Hills Indian Cession, a region that subsequently became South Dakota.

Much of Deadwood centres on the business dealings between the Chinese headman, Mr Wu, and the corrupt saloon owner and town powerbroker, Al Swearengen. The inherent racism of frontier life is apparent, as is the mutual respect the two men have for each other as they seek to benefit from nefarious business dealings.

Similar complex, intertwined plots of shifting alliances and a mutual desire to win money run through New Gold Mountain.

On closer viewing, the series also shares a watermark with the New Zealand made Illustrious Energy (1988), directed by Leon Narbey, which also explored the goldfields experience from a Chinese perspective. Other Australian colonial stories have been told in John Hillcoat’s The Proposition (2005) and Jennifer Kent’s recent The Nightingale (2018).

Yoson An’s smouldering portrayal of Wei Shing resembles Jay Swan’s character in Mystery Road (2018–). Both are extremely resourceful, conflicted and move between different worlds while confronting the ghosts of their own respective pasts in remote Australia.

Historical voices together

New Gold Mountain emphasises the little told history of the Chinese on the diggings. The paradoxical nature of the colonial gold seeking era is best understood when all the historical voices are heard together. If one story dominates, much of the historical themes which help to explain Australian society in the present day are missed.

The show also reminds us of the complex enduring relationship between China and Australia, which has often been driven by the mining industry.

But, ultimately, it’s a cracking murder mystery that reminds viewers the first Australian multicultural moment happened in the mid-19th century – not the 20th.

New Gold Mountain premieres on SBS Wednesday 13 October.

Read more:
From lurid orange sauces to refined, regional flavours: how politics helped shape Chinese food in Australia

Keir Reeves does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. New Gold Mountain review: a compelling murder mystery shines light on early Australian multiculturalism – https://theconversation.com/new-gold-mountain-review-a-compelling-murder-mystery-shines-light-on-early-australian-multiculturalism-169527

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Malcolm Boyle, Academic Lead in Paramedic Education and Program Director Paramedicine Programs, Griffith University

Long lines of ambulances idling outside hospitals have shocked the public in recent news reports, especially in states with high COVID case numbers and increased hospital admissions.

Mick Stephenson, executive director of clinical operations at Ambulance Victoria told ABC radio he’d “never seen the health system under the pressure it is under at the moment” and he expected worse to come.

In fact, ambulance ramping is an issue even in states with low or no COVID cases, pointing to health systems under stress. It’s a problem that risks the health of patients and paramedics.

Read more:
Hospital emergency departments are under intense pressure. What to know before you go

After bypass was banned

Ambulance ramping appears to have increased since some Australian states banned hospital bypass. Hospital bypass previously allowed overwhelmed hospital emergency departments (EDs) to request ambulances “bypass” them for another hospital. But this just shifted a patient’s treatment to another hospital. An ambulance that would have bypassed a hospital under the strategy is now potentially ramped there.

Still, ambulance ramping is not a new phenomenon. It’s a decades-old problem and an international one, not limited to Western countries.

The Australasian College for Emergency Medicine (ACEM) explains ramping as when

[…] ambulance officers and/or paramedics are unable to complete transfer of clinical care of their patient to the hospital ED within a clinically appropriate timeframe, specifically due to lack of an appropriate clinical space in the ED.

Overseas, ramping is also referred to as “off-stretcher time delays”, “ambulance turnaround delays” or “ambulance offload delay”.

Bad for patients and paramedics

Ambulance ramping delays access to appropriate management for the ramped patient. It has long been known to contribute to longer ED stays and stress on service provision.

Ramping leads to a lack of ambulance resources to respond to new cases and delayed response times. When multiple crews are ramped at a hospital like Melbourne’s Northern Hospital or sitting with patients in hospital corridors while they wait to be seen, other crews might need to travel much farther to respond to life-threatening emergencies. Paramedic morale can suffer and lead to disillusionment with the potential for paramedic “burnout”.

News reports have identified people suffering and dying after long periods of ramping, even in states not greatly affected by high COVID cases.

Ambulance ramping is what the public see and hear about via news reports. They might be less aware of bed shortages or access blocks in the aged care sector, which flows back to the hospital bed availability. This in turn flows back to the ED.

As with many aspects of health care, COVID has highlighted and worsened existing problems and pressures.

Read more:
Health workers are among the COVID vaccine hesitant. Here’s how we can support them safely

A complex problem

Some state ambulance services have had extremely high demand which has stretched service delivery, especially when combined with ramping.

Ambulance Victoria has announced plans to use the military, other non-government staff and student paramedics to drive ambulances to cope with the anticipated surge in demand. Given the number of graduate paramedics in Australia without current employment in state or territory ambulance services, such graduates would be a better option as they at least know how to be part of a “paramedic crew”.

Hospital ED blockages and delays are caused by a number of factors. Some patients could be adequately managed by a GP. An ageing population means patients with complex medical conditions, who take longer to treat in the ED. Patient treatment may be delayed while they wait for a procedure room to become vacant and a lack of hospital beds for ED patients who need to be admitted. The time needed to assess and treat COVID patients and to maintain a COVID-safe environment also leads to longer waits.

The impact of states with significant COVID cases re-opening once certain vaccination percentanges have been reached has yet to be seen in Australia. Based on overseas experiences, patients may face trying to access a health system that becomes completely overwhelmed.

What’s needed now

Rather than a piecemeal state-by-state approach to community paramedicine, there is a need for national role definitions and educational standards. Instead of the current situation of emergency calls and ramping, a workforce of advanced or extended care paramedics could safely manage many patients in a community setting, rather than take them to hospital.

Some hospitals have tried to implement processes to improve ED, but a patient’s progress still might come down to a bed being available in the hospital.

The issue remains a state or territory and federal problem with beds needed beyond the ED to ease pressure there. The federal government funds a significant amount of aged care beds and the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) slow processing of hospital patients means they are often stuck in a hospital awaiting a place in an aged facility or a NDIS-funded facility. This continues to limit or block access to hospital beds.

Ambulance ramping is one symptom of a multi-factorial health system failure. Until there is sufficient federal funding for aged care beds, improved NDIS processes and funding to allow GPs and allied health workers to manage patients in the community, we will continue to see patients and paramedics put at risk.

Read more:
‘Living with COVID’ looks very different for front-line health workers, who are already exhausted

Malcolm Boyle is receiving funding from the Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Communications. Malcolm Boyle previously worked for Ambulance Victoria and interacts with Queensland Ambulance Service as part of his role at Griffith University.

– ref. Bad for patients, bad for paramedics: ambulance ramping is a symptom of a health system in distress – https://theconversation.com/bad-for-patients-bad-for-paramedics-ambulance-ramping-is-a-symptom-of-a-health-system-in-distress-169528

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lukasz Swiatek, Lecturer, UNSW

The two journalists who won this year’s Nobel Peace Prize have become international celebrities overnight. Maria Ressa and Dmitry Muratov will no doubt benefit from their increased prominence and status. At the same time, the celebrity that comes with the prize will bring a host of other challenges the winners will have to navigate.

I have researched the impact the Nobel Peace Prize has had on winners in recent decades, both in terms of the unexpected challenges they face in their work and the newfound attention it brings.

Both Ressa and Muratov will likely face similar pressures, especially considering they have worked to combat authoritarianism in two countries (the Philippines and Russia) where the government has actively tried to silence them.

Read more:
Maria Ressa: Nobel prize-winner risks life and liberty to hold Philippines government to account

How the award immediately changes lives

Ressa has been lauded for challenging Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte’s deadly anti-drug campaign. Muratov, a Russian journalist, has been honoured for speaking truth to power as one of the founders of a prominent independent newspaper.

Excitement surrounded the winners after the announcement. Ressa, looking visibly shocked in a Zoom panel discussion, shared her gratitude with supporters. Muratov was greeted with flowers and champagne by colleagues.

During Nobel Week in December, the laureates will receive their medals and the money that accompanies the prize. Each will be awarded 5 million Swedish kronor (A$783,000 or US$572,000). The funds will be a welcome boost in their fight for freedom of expression.

Like many Peace Prize laureates before them, Ressa and Muratov will undoubtedly use their acceptance speeches (and other appearances) as an opportunity to advance their causes and condemn repression by authoritarian governments.

Read more:
Nobel peace prize: how Dmitry Muratov built Russia’s ‘bravest’ newspaper, Novaya Gazeta

This opportunity carries significant weight: the recordings and publications from these events are carefully put together to present the prize winners and their messages in a particular way. They become part of an authoritative archive about the Nobel Peace Prize. In short, their words will be immortalised.

‘The remarkable powers of an Open Sesame’

Both journalists have now attained what one scholar has called “achieved celebrity” on an international level, or fame gained through accomplishments or successes in a particular field.

In the short term, both Ressa and Muratov will benefit from the enormous international exposure they have received. Their messages will be relayed by media outlets around the world. The journalism profession is also benefiting, given the stature of the prize.

Previous winners were able to reap the benefits of their skyrocketing fame in various ways. For example, Adolfo Pérez Esquivel, an Argentine artist and human rights activist who won the Peace Prize in 1980, suddenly found he had access to senior US lawmakers and European government officials.

According to one analysis, it helped him and the NGO he co-founded strengthen the human rights movement in Latin America and contributed to democratisation in the region.

South African anti-apartheid activist Desmond Tutu, the 1984 winner, once said the prize had “the remarkable powers of an Open Sesame”. He remarked,

[…] things you said before you got the Nobel Peace Prize and not too many people paid attention. You say the same things [afterwards], and people think it’s pearls from Heaven.

Increased scrutiny and tensions with colleagues

However, celebrity comes with increased levels of scrutiny. The world keeps a close eye on Nobel Peace Prize winners, and outcries are common after even the smallest missteps, especially in the age of social media.

Recently, for example, women’s education activist Malala Yousafzai, who became the world’s youngest Nobel Prize laureate in 2014, questioned the institution of marriage in a British Vogue interview, provoking fury in her native Pakistan.

How the prize winnings are spent is always a major focus of attention. This extends to the humanitarian organisations created by the winners — and the way others use donated funds.

For example, former US President Barack Obama, the 2009 laureate, donated his winnings to 10 different charities; the head of one of these charities admitted in 2014 to mismanaging and personally profiting from the money.

Read more:
The Nobel Prizes’ controversial push for popularity

The awarding of the Peace Prize also sometimes creates tension between the winners and their colleagues. This is partly because of the Nobel Foundation rules, which state that a Nobel Prize can’t be given to more than three people in a given year.

So, while some winners become overnight celebrities, their former colleagues are sometimes sidelined. Perhaps most sensationally, the 1997 awarding of the prize to Jody Williams and the International Campaign to Ban Landmines led to bitter in-fighting within the organisation.

More dire threats from authoritarian regimes

One of the biggest, immediate threats facing both Ressa and Muratov is potential harsh repression from the authorities in their home countries.

Over the years, many Peace Prize winners – and their supporters – have faced severe repercussions after winning the award.

For example, Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo spent years in detention for “inciting subversion of state power” until his death in 2017. The Chinese government depicted him as a stooge of the west and blocked information about him online. His wife spent nearly eight years in house arrest despite never having been charged with a crime.

Other winners, such as Myanmar pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and Iranian political activist Shirin Ebadi, also had to weather political backlashes. For this reason, one commentator has pointed out the Peace Prize sometimes brings little peace.

Tensions may already be appearing in Russia following Muratov’s win. Even though the Kremlin congratulated Muratov – calling him “talented” and “brave” – authorities have begun to label other journalists and media organisations “foreign agents”.

Supporters of the imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny have also expressed disappointment over the choice of winner, as well as Muratov’s approach of trying to engage with Russia’s leaders.

Ressa, meanwhile, has faced a torrent of online trolling and threats throughout her career, which have continued with ferocity after her win.

For all the glamour and worldwide attention it brings, Nobel Peace Prize celebrity has a darker side, which all winners have to handle. As Ressa has said, there is only one way to deal with it:

When we came under attack, there wasn’t really any other choice, the phrase we used is ‘hold the line’.

Lukasz Swiatek does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The Nobel Peace Prize brings overnight celebrity, but also frequent scrutiny, trolling and persecution – https://theconversation.com/the-nobel-peace-prize-brings-overnight-celebrity-but-also-frequent-scrutiny-trolling-and-persecution-169567

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yee-Fui Ng, Associate Professor, Faculty of Law, Monash University

Today Victoria’s anti-corruption commission begins public hearings into allegations of branch stacking by Labor MPs and their staff.

This follows news Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews is being questioned by the Victorian Independent Broad‑based Anti‑corruption Commission (IBAC) over his dealings with the firefighters union (Andrews says he has behaved “appropriately”).

It also comes as New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian sensationally fell on her sword last month. She resigned after revelations the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) was investigating whether there was a conflict between her public duties and private interests, which she denies.

This has all further heated up the debate about the proposed federal integrity commission. The Morrison government is expected to introduce legislation establishing the Commonwealth commission by the end of the year. But its proposed model has been criticised as being too weak.

So, what are these anti-corruption commissions? And what are differences between ICAC in NSW and IBAC in Victoria?

What are anti-corruption commissions?

Anti-corruption commissions investigate corruption in government. They can be given strong coercive powers to do so, including the power to compel documents and witnesses.

ICAC was established in NSW in 1988 by then premier Nick Greiner. A few years later, Greiner became the first premier to resign due to an ICAC investigation. Victoria’s IBAC was set up in 2012 following an election commitment by the Baillieu Coalition government (who made the pledge during opposition).

There are three main differences between IBAC and ICAC – jurisdiction, power and procedures.

IBAC vs ICAC

When IBAC was set up, it was criticised by prominent former judges at the Accountability Roundtable as a “toothless tiger,” given the high threshold of what it could investigate – it must be “serious corrupt conduct” before an investigation can start.

We should note here, the investigation threshold for the proposed Commonwealth Integrity Commission is even higher, requiring a reasonable suspicion of corruption amounting to a criminal offence before an inquiry can even begin. This is a difficult hurdle to clear.

Read more:
A federal ICAC must end the confusion between integrity questions and corruption

The Andrews government increased the jurisdiction of IBAC in 2016, removing the requirement for corrupt conduct to be “serious”, and adding the ability to investigate misconduct in public office.

But IBAC’s jurisdiction remains more limited than ICAC’s, which has broad powers to investigate any allegation upon suspicion of corruption. This includes alleged substantial breaches of the ministerial and MP codes of conduct.

IBAC’s powers are also more limited than ICAC. It is unable to use coercive powers to conduct preliminary investigations to determine whether matters warrant full examination. By contrast, ICAC has the full use of coercive powers, including for preliminary investigations.

Read more:
As a NSW premier falls and SA guts its anti-corruption commission, what are the lessons for integrity bodies in Australia?

Finally, ICAC holds public hearings as a matter of course. But IBAC can only hold public hearings in exceptional circumstances and when it is in the public interest to do so.

In short, ICAC is a more powerful commission than IBAC.

Who watches the watchdogs?

A big question is about how we ensure anti-corruption commissions do not overstep their bounds. Given their broad coercive powers, how do we hold them to account?

In Australia, anti-corruption commissions are subject to a strong system of accountability through parliaments and the courts.

IBAC and ICAC report to dedicated parliamentary committees who scrutinise their actions and decisions. Complaints against IBAC and ICAC can be made to a dedicated inspectorate – an independent statutory officer who oversees their actions.

Where the anti-corruption commissions go beyond the legal boundaries of their roles, the courts will police it. For example, in 2015, the High Court shut down an investigation against crown prosecutor, Margaret Cunneen. The court found ICAC had no power to investigate allegations Cunneen had advised her son’s girlfriend to fake chest pains to avoid a breath test after a car crash. This is because Cunneen’s actions occurred when acting as a private citizen (not as crown prosecutor) – and so did not fit the definition of “corrupt conduct” in the NSW legislation.

So the idea that anti-corruption commissions are not accountable is simply untrue.

Under attack

Anti-corruption commissions like IBAC and ICAC tend to be unpopular within governments because they scrutinise government action and may expose improper conduct or corruption within their ranks.

It is regrettably common for governments hostile to anti-corruption commissions to attack them, including by reducing their powers or funding.

Read more:
ICAC is not a curse, and probity in government matters. The Australian media would do well to remember that

In this vein, the latest barrage of criticisms by politicians of ICAC following Berejiklian’s resignation is rather predictable. It is part of a broader pattern of attacks on oversight bodies that police government action.

This is despite their integral role in our democracy. Alongside other oversight bodies such as the ombudsman and auditor-general, anti-corruption commissions form part of an intricate, interlocking integrity framework that monitors executive action.

In this light, the design of the proposed Commonwealth Integrity Commission is fundamental. Australians deserve a robust system of accountability that will keep our politicians honest.

Yee-Fui Ng does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. IBAC vs ICAC: what are these anti-corruption commissions and how do they compare? – https://theconversation.com/ibac-vs-icac-what-are-these-anti-corruption-commissions-and-how-do-they-compare-169544

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Javier Alvarez-Mon, Professor in Near Eastern Archaeology and Art, Macquarie University

Inhabitants of the ancient city-states of the Middle East enjoyed a vibrant social and economic life centred on palace and temple institutions, supported by surrounding agricultural and pastoralist communities. People, goods and ideas flowed between these cities generating a cultural sphere within which strong local identities and customs were preserved.

One such custom that arose in the area of Syria was the professional acrobat, or huppû, attached to the royal court.

The first known mention of the huppû is in administrative documents from the ancient city of Ebla (Tell Mardikh) in Syria dated as early as 2320 BCE. Details of the profession can be further pieced together from snippets of information in a royal archive (1771-1764 BCE) of about 20,000 tablets preserved at the neighbouring city of Mari (Tell Hariri) on the Euphrates River.

Accounting records and personal letters unveil troupes of huppû who performed several times per month for special events to celebrate the king’s safe return to the city, the arrival of special visitors and religious festivals. The program for the festival of the goddess Ishtar included huppû, wrestlers, and lamentation priests who sung in the ancient Sumerian language accompanied by drums.

These productions were so admired, the cast and crew accompanied the king to entertain in foreign kingdoms.

Craft of the huppû

There are just two surviving adjectives used to describe the performances of the huppû, but they evoke a visual feast of high-energy movement.

The first, mēlulu, variously meant “to play”, “to act” and “to fight”.

The second, nabalkutu, was applied to a range of bold and dynamic actions: “to clear an obstacle”, “to rebel against authority”, “to turn upside down”, “to change sides”, “to tumble” (said of a flying bird) and “to roll” (said of waves and earthquakes).

We can envisage groups of huppû showcasing a choreographed blend of acrobatic feats and dance, harmonising physical strength and control with bodily expression to win over an audience.

The craft appears to have been a male-only pursuit. There are no records of a female form of the noun huppû, nor any documented huppû with a female name.

Access to formal education in writing and the arts in ancient Syria, as elsewhere in the Near East, was determined primarily by one’s family status: most children followed in the footsteps of their parents.

Specialist conservatories existed for promising male and female musicians and singers while, much like modern athletes, young male huppû apprentices were sent to dedicated academies to learn mastery through years of repetitive and strenuous drills.

Through preserved correspondence between the literate elite, it seems the divide between artistic conservatories and athletic academies reflected a mind-body split in cultural values.

Tension between the schools surface in a letter composed by the beleaguered head of the royal huppû troupe, Piradi, to the king Zimri-Lim, dated around 1763 BCE.

First appealing to the king’s good judgement (“my lord knows when I am lying and when I am not”) Piradi goes on to lament the under-appreciated difficulty of his art (a grievance somewhat verified by a pay disparity between musicians and acrobats in the royal accounts) and the contempt he endures from the musicians.

Indeed, from one musician’s own pen: “if I break my oath, they can chase me down and make me a huppû!”

Read more:
The perils of history and antiquity in Syria

Living as a huppû

Troupe members lived outside the palace and most probably had families – although not always happy ones, judging by Piradi’s declaration a woman had just left his house and robbed him of his possessions.

Employment was on a casual basis. Payments were collected after performances, probably several times per month, in the form of silver shekels.

A surviving list of palace disbursements for a tour to a neighbouring town points to a reasonable living: an ordinary huppû collected one shekel; the second-in-command two; and the head five.

(For perspective, a single silver shekel bought 300 kg of barley.)

The head huppû was an especially privileged role. Piradi enjoyed direct access to the ear of the king, and he attracted extravagant gifts including “first quality” garments, silver weapons and wine.

But head of troupe was a high-stress position in a competitive line of work.

The huppû from the city of Mari faced an ever-present threat of outside competition, especially rivals from the famed huppû school of nearby Halep (modern Aleppo), and potential work shortages and lay-offs with the arrival of a new ruler targeting funding cuts in the arts.

A lasting legacy

The huppû profession sustained itself under the same name – and probably much the same form – for well over a thousand years.

This is attested by a legal contract signed by a private huppû coach named Nanā-uzelli in 628 BCE about 450 km from Mari at Borsippa, near Babylon in Iraq. For the price of two silver shekels, he would train a man’s son for a period of two years and five months.

Further evidence for the vast spread of the huppû craft through the Middle East from its Syrian homeland is a royal banquet scene engraved inside an Elamite bronze bowl from southwest Iran around 600 BCE.

One of the oldest depictions of its kind, the bowl displays an ensemble of musicians performing in tandem with a troupe of back-bending, stilt-balancing, hand-walking acrobats.

Next time you are watching the gymnastics, or see some acrobats at the circus, have a think back on the ways humans have been pushing their bodies to the limits for thousands of years.

Javier Alvarez-Mon received funding from the Australian Research Council (Future Fellowship) from 2014 to 2018

Yasmina Wicks does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The world’s first professional acrobats were flipping through the Middle East 4,000 years ago – https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-first-professional-acrobats-were-flipping-through-the-middle-east-4-000-years-ago-165968

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Janet Hunt, Honorary Associate Professor, CAEPR, Australian National University

There is a contradiction between the New South Wales government’s plan for Closing the Gap and its persecution of Aboriginal people on the New South Wales south coast who want to maintain their saltwater culture.

The government needs to rethink what it is doing if it is to achieve the Closing the Gap outcomes it wants to see there.

In the early years of colonisation, Aboriginal people played crucial roles in the establishment of fishing industries on the NSW south coast, but are now almost entirely excluded from them.

Following colonisation, Aboriginal people continued to fish as a source of food, with some bartering and small-scale trading, called “cultural-commercial fishing”. South coast Aboriginal people are proud of their saltwater culture, but tired of being stigmatised as “poachers” who plunder the ocean.

Closing the Gap targets

The New South Wales government signed the 2020 National Agreement on Closing the Gap which includes targets for “strong, supported and flourishing” cultures and languages, and for Aboriginal adults and young people to no longer be overrepresented in the criminal justice system. Other targets focus on health and increasing employment and economic participation.

However Indigenous people are overrepresented among those jailed or convicted in New South Wales for offences related to abalone fishing. Rather than supporting a flourishing culture, the continued prosecution of south coast Aboriginal people won’t reduce Aboriginal incarceration, contribute to their employment or improve their health.

Many people have been charged with abalone diving here, including Aboriginal grandfather, Kevin Mason.

Once Aboriginal people have a criminal conviction, their chances of gaining employment plummet. And while fishing provides people with healthy food and exercise, prosecuting them for this act instead causes stress. This is not conducive to a long healthy life.

Exclusion and poverty

There are high rates of poverty and unemployment among Aboriginal people on the south coast; both Eurobodalla and Bega shires reflect this. Poorer education outcomes and longstanding racism have been factors in this.

Harvested seafood has been part of south coast Indigenous peoples’ diets since before colonisation. The sea has always been their supermarket, as an Australian Institute of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Studies (AIATSIS) study recognised:

As saltwater people, all of the knowledge and practices related to marine foods are central to their culture, and part of what makes it unique. This means that fishing and gathering other seafood is one of the main ways people practice their culture. It’s also about getting out on country, and feeling connected to country and ancestors by fishing and gathering the way they did.

The ability of older people to take young people out fishing and diving is essential to being able to pass on their knowledge of the marine environment.
The AIATSIS study also found:

[…]taking children fishing is necessary for their cultural education. Through fishing they learn cultural knowledge of local fauna and flora, different fishing techniques and practices, knowledge of their country and the right places to get different species – as well as the stories of those places. They also learn the cultural laws that govern fishing.

Furthermore, no review of Aboriginal cultural fishing or any fishery in NSW has identified this practice as having a negative impact on marine resources. As such, it is not clear why this persecution persists.

It can’t be to protect the fish stocks, as most total allowable catch assessments (TACs) for the New South Wales coast, designed to manage stocks at sustainable levels, don’t even collect data on Aboriginal peoples’ catches.

While some illegal fishing of abalone is acknowledged in the Abalone TAC, overall, fishing for abalone in the state remains sustainable.

As AIATSIS found:

Many participants felt that cultural fishers were needlessly overregulated. To them it seemed hypocritical for Fisheries [NSW] to focus on the compliance of the small number of cultural fishers, and for them to be characterised as threats to the marine environment, when their total take pales in comparison to that of the commercial fisheries.

Read more:
To enable healing, there’s a more effective way to Close the Gap in employment in remote Australia

Caught in a bind

The NSW government says its vision is for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people to determine their own futures. A clear message coming from NSW Aboriginal people is that maintenance of their culture is central to their vision of the future.

Ironically, south coast Aboriginal people are being asked to prove they continue to practise this fishing culture in the assessment of their current native title claim.

While the Commonwealth government’s Native Title Act requires them to demonstrate continuance of their cultural practices to gain their native title rights, the state government pursues and criminalises them if they do so. It’s a no-win situation.

The NSW government needs to stop the harassment and prosecutions of Indigenous people for maintaining their cultural practices if the state really wants to Close the Gap on incarceration, health and employment for Aboriginal communities.

Janet Hunt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The NSW government needs to stop prosecuting Aboriginal fishers if it really wants to Close the Gap – https://theconversation.com/the-nsw-government-needs-to-stop-prosecuting-aboriginal-fishers-if-it-really-wants-to-close-the-gap-168749

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Donne Potter, Professor, Research Centre for Hauora and Health, Massey University

As New Zealand switches from elimination to suppression, those who argue that COVID-19 will become endemic and part of our lives either do not understand or ignore what this would actually mean.

Elimination has always been a tricky word because it implies eradication. But we have only ever eradicated one human disease — smallpox — and are close with several others.

For some, the end of elimination now means we should let the virus spread. But semantics matter less than policy. If we don’t eliminate, we must still aim to contain, mop up, reduce close to zero and thwart this pandemic.

Because we certainly cannot live with endemic SARS-CoV-2.

The Delta variant spreads ominously and without controls, every infected person, on average, would infect six more, then 36, 216, 1296, 7776, 46,656 — we would get to more than twice New Zealand’s five million with three more cycles.

We must continue to either stamp out the virus or keep case numbers very low. To contain case numbers, we need to keep up border protection, mask wearing, distancing, bubbles, contact tracing, testing of people and waste water, and vaccination.

In the current Delta outbreak, more than 95% of those infected were either unvaccinated or had received only their first dose.

Read more:
COVID will likely shift from pandemic to endemic — but what does that mean?

Delta is nothing like the flu

Our most common endemic infections include the common cold (caused by hundreds of different viruses that circulate freely) and the flu (caused by a group of influenza viruses).

Those who dismiss a mild case of COVID-19 as being “no worse than the flu” have forgotten how appalling a case of flu really is. They might also have forgotten that, even with effective vaccination, influenza has a case fatality risk of about 0.1% — it kills about 500 people in New Zealand each year.

Yet some seem to expect that COVID-19 will learn to behave and become endemic. Some even seem to welcome this, claiming a “disease becomes endemic when it is manageable”.

This is not true. Being manageable is not part of the definition of endemic disease. A disease becomes endemic when it is more or less always present in a population. It does not care whether it is manageable.

Read more:
NZ needs a more urgent vaccination plan — with nearly 80% now single-dosed, the majority will support it

Seasonal influenza has a basic reproduction number (R0) of about 1.5, meaning one infected person spreads the disease to fewer than two other people, on average. This is why it takes very little to break the chain of transmission. The annual flu epidemic declines because we have effective vaccines and because seasonal conditions during summer are less favourable to the survival of the virus.

However, as we already mentioned, the Delta variant has an R0 of at least six. This will be as low as it gets from here onward. If a new variant supplants Delta, it will do so because it is even more transmissible.

There will be no season for COVID-19, no breaks in transmission, no declines in infectiousness. We have been struggling worldwide with this virus for 18 months, with spikes everywhere in every season.

School and business closures part of new normal

If COVID-19 becomes endemic, there will not be one or two people sick in a workplace or a home. We will have waves and clusters and multiple local outbreaks. Schools and businesses will close for days, even weeks, because too many people are sick. It will cost the world trillions — consider what it has already done to global supply chains.

If COVID-19 becomes endemic, the burden on our healthcare system will be immense. It will not involve a predictable, modest increase in hospital admissions. Waves and clusters will characterise endemic COVID-19 in the same way they have characterised pandemic COVID-19, overwhelming local healthcare without warning.

If COVID-19 becomes endemic, Merck’s new antiviral drug Molnupiravir will be an important addition to the toolkit because it will be much cheaper than monoclonal antibodies, easy to store, easy to transport and people can take it at home.

The as yet unpublished trials suggest the treatment could cut hospitalisations in half, markedly improving outcomes for those already infected. But it will not reduce the number of cases by even one.

Treatment never does — only prevention, public health measures and vaccination reduce case numbers. Those who are less sick and treated at home could spread the virus even more.

If COVID-19 becomes endemic, when the healthcare system fails to accommodate the latest wave, more people will die.

Long-term costs to health and economy

Even if we managed to get COVID-19 down to the severity of influenza (for an individual), endemic Delta – with an R0 about five times that of flu and the fully vaccinated still able to become infected and spread – would still mean thousands of hospitalisations and deaths each year.

Just four cycles of Delta infection could result in more than 250 times as many cases as four cycles of flu.

If COVID-19 becomes endemic, every year, many of us will know someone who dies.

If COVID-19 becomes endemic, more than a third of unvaccinated cases, even the asymptomatic, will have symptoms months later. Flu leaves little lasting damage. Long COVID damages the lungs, heart, brain, hearing and vision as well as the insulin-producing cells of the pancreas, causing diabetes.

The cost of COVID-19 is so much higher than that of the flu, not just because of higher case numbers, hospitalisations and deaths, but more long-term damage and disability.

Read more:
Take-at-home COVID drug molnupiravir may be on its way — but vaccination is still our first line of defence

If COVID-19 becomes endemic, we will live with a stressed, often overwhelmed healthcare system, with schools subject to unpredictable closures, with unsafe workplaces, with a disrupted economy, with our children under threat, with death and disability at a persistently higher level than we have known — probably for decades.

We do not care what the current strategy is called as long as we persist with border protection and public health measures until we achieve close to universal vaccination. Otherwise, many thousands of New Zealanders will be hospitalised, die or experience long COVID.

Ultimately, we will need a sterilising vaccine (one that protects people from getting infected) because we cannot live with endemic COVID-19.

Graham Le Gros receives funding from MBIE to support Vaccine Alliance Aotearoa New Zealand, Ohu Kaupare Huaketo for the development and manufacture of a COVID19 vaccine for Aotearoa NZ.

John Donne Potter and Rod Jackson do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why we must not allow COVID to become endemic in New Zealand – https://theconversation.com/why-we-must-not-allow-covid-to-become-endemic-in-new-zealand-169608

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sora Park, Associate Dean of Research, Faculty of Arts & Design, University of Canberra

The impacts of COVID-19 on Australian university researchers are likely to have consequences for research productivity and quality for many years to come.

According to an online survey of academics at the University of Canberra between November 2020 and February 2021, they have deep concerns about their ability to undertake research during the pandemic and the flow-on effects of this. The findings are consistent with those of Research Australia from research in 2020 and 2021 and suggest Australia’s research sector will take a substantive hit from COVID-19.

The knowledge produced by university research generates an estimated 10% of Australia’s GDP. Without access to JobKeeper in 2020, universities across the sector cut back on casual staff and increased the teaching load of full-time academics. Combined with the challenges of working from home, this has had a real impact on research, not just immediately but in the longer term.

Read more:
$7.6 billion and 11% of researchers: our estimate of how much Australian university research stands to lose by 2024

Almost three-quarters (73%) of respondents reported teaching commitments increased in the transition to online learning. Almost two-thirds reported delays in project milestones (63%) and publication (62%).

In addition to reduced research productivity, staff expressed concerns about the quality of outputs as they are aware their general mental well-being has been affected. As one academic said:

“Although I have completed the usual number of papers, I am concerned about their quality due to the sense of being so overwhelmed by work and the COVID impacts that I couldn’t apply my usual critical judgements.”

Impacts on researchers are highly uneven

About half (52%) of respondents felt positive about the flexibility of working from home. In fact, we may see a shift in the work culture following the pandemic. An Australian Bureau of Statistics survey in June found one-third (33%) of Australians said working from home was the aspect of COVID life they would most like to continue.

However, working from home did not translate into work-life balance and productivity for many academics. Domestic arrangements for a significant number have had an overall negative impact. These impacts particularly affected those with carers’ responsibilities.

Of those with children up to year 12, 64% said working at home had a negative impact on the hours of work, compared with 50% of those with no children at home. Those with children at home were three times more likely to say their domestic responsibilities had a negative impact on their research.

The impacts of COVID-19 on academic staff are not evenly distributed. There was a disproportionate gender impact, which is in line with previous reports across the sector. Impacts were greatest on academics in the early stages of their careers, often with young families.

This differential impact is reflected in other research into academic publishing, which shows the gender gap widening during the pandemic.

Read more:
How COVID is widening the academic gender divide

What does the future hold?

Research is a long-term endeavour. It takes years and even decades for research to come to fruition.

We asked respondents how they saw the future of their research. The majority felt pessimistic about all aspects of research: funding, publication, collaborating and supervising PhD students. More than two-thirds of respondents had negative views about their ability to attract funding and pursue research projects in the near future.

More importantly, those who have young families are feeling despondent about their research careers. A majority of them say their ability to publish will be hampered for the next two to three years. This group is the future of Australian academic research, so the negative impact of COVID-19 is of serious concern.

This is bad for Australia in terms of lost or delayed advances in science and technology, stalled or postponed advances in health care and treatment, reduced capacity to inform public debate, and fewer opportunities to contribute to Australia’s lifestyle and culture. The impacts of the pandemic on the emerging generation of researchers will have long-term consequences.

Read more:
Early and mid-career scientists face a bleak future in the wake of the pandemic

In June, the ABS survey of pandemic impacts found one in five (20%) Australians experienced high or very high levels of psychological distress due to COVID-19. This has not changed since last November. Like many Australians, academics are under enormous pressure trying to balance work and home life.

As well as the concerns about the blurring of work and home life, we found evidence of low morale and exhaustion among staff. These findings match those of a report released today by Professional Scientists Australia.

There is a need for both the government and universities to develop a long-term, tailored strategy to support the research community. This will help ensure Australia’s research effort continues at its above-world-class level, with the associated societal benefits it brings.

The survey and the analysis of the data were carried out in collaboration with Janie Busby Grant, Elke Stracke, Simon Niemeyer, Roland Goecke, and Dianne Gleeson at the University of Canberra.

Sora Park receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Alannah Madeline Foundation, NAMLE and Social Science Research Council.

Jennie Scarvell and Linda Botterill do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Hit hard by the pandemic, researchers expect its impacts to linger for years – https://theconversation.com/hit-hard-by-the-pandemic-researchers-expect-its-impacts-to-linger-for-years-169366

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Terry Goldsworthy, Associate Professor in Criminology, Bond University

Data released by the Australian Institute of Criminology (AIC) this week show fatal police shootings in Australia have reached an all-time high.

With the move to weaponise our police with widespread access to weapons such as military-style rifles and crowd control equipment munitions, are we seeing a move from a community service focus to a more force-orientated model of policing?

Fatal police shootings

The report on deaths in custody in 2019-20 indicated that there were 24 deaths in police custody or custody-related operations. Of these, 16 were attributable to police shootings. This is the highest number of shooting deaths since record keeping began in 1989-90.

Over that period, Australian police have shot dead some 164 people. The latest AIC report shows there has been a 78% increase in fatal police shootings between 2018-19 and 2019-20.

New South Wales and Queensland had the most police shootings with five each, followed by Victoria and Western Australia with two each.

Two of those fatally shot were Indigenous, 11 were non-Indigenous, and in three cases the Indigenous status was not stated.

Read more:
Why Australia should be wary of the rise of the warrior cop, with tools to match

The threat environment

The National Police Memorial lists those police who have been killed on duty or have died as a result of their duties. Since 2010, 22 police members have died, only five of those through the actions of armed offenders. Four involved firearms and one a knife.

To put this is perspective, in 2019-20 there were 58,514 sworn police officers in Australia. While the number of deaths is small, it must be acknowledged that policing is still an inherently dangerous and difficult occupation.

In terms of the general population, homicides in Australia are at historic lows and compare well against international trends.

Crime in general has declined in Australia. This trend has continued
since the COVID pandemic began.

Read more:
Explainer: why homicide rates in Australia are declining

Are police becoming more enforcement-orientated?

There is little doubt Australian police forces are weaponising in the same way as police in the United States have done in recent years. The rise of the warrior cop is well documented. But it seems the COVID pandemic has also encouraged a move away from community engagement to enforcing health directives with little room for tolerance.

New South Wales Police Commissioner Mick Fuller instructed his staff to move to a more enforcement-focused approach to COVID health order restrictions.

I am asking you to put community policing to the side for a short period of time […]

In recent weeks, we saw Victoria Police fire rubber bullets to disperse anti-lockdown protesters as their use-of-force choice. Police warned the protesters:

Leave now or force may be used. No further warnings will be given.

Victoria Police Chief Commissioner Shane Patton later confirmed police used a variety of weapons including pepper balls, foam baton rounds (theses are a less lethal alternative to traditional bullets, also known as kinetic impact projectiles), smoke bombs and stinger grenades that deploy rubber pellets. He justified the use by arguing:

These crowd control equipment munitions were necessary […] because we can’t allow this type of conduct to go on.

Yet when the unlawful gathering of large crowds took place for Black Lives Matter protests during COVID restrictions, Victoria Police took little or no action. Such inconsistency in responses simply undermines the legitimacy of police.

Victoria Police deployed a Bearcat armoured vehicle in response to an anti-lockdown protest. This is despite the claim these vehicles would only be used in high-risk incidents such as sieges or the apprehension of armed offenders.

Holding police accountable

Any use of force must be lawful, and simply being a police officer does not necessarily provide that justification. The application of force, be it lethal or otherwise, must be authorised, justified or excused by law. If not, then the use of such force may be criminal.

In Western Australia, a police officer is on trial for the death of Indigenous woman Joyce Clarke, who was fatally shot while allegedly armed with a knife in 2019.

In the Northern Territory, Constable Zachary Rolfe is charged with the alleged shooting murder of Indigenous man Kumanjayi Walker.

In 2018, the Queensland government agreed to a $30 million payment following a Federal Court ruling that claimants were deemed to have suffered racial discrimination at the hands of police in their response to the 2004 Palm Island riots. The Queensland Police Union of Employees disagreed with the government’s decision.

What do complaint levels about use of force tell us?

In 2019-20 in Victoria, there were 354 allegations of misconduct through use of force, accounting for 11% of total complaints. In the previous year, use-of-force allegations accounted for 18% of complaints.

In Queensland, Crime and Corruption Commission data show the number of use-of-force allegations declined from 892 in 2016 to 493 in 2020. In New South Wales the converse occurred, with the number of allegations increasing from 395 in 2015-16 to 864 in 2019-20.

These data would suggest there is no uniform increase in use-of-force complaints.

Where to now?

We should be concerned about such a drastic increase in fatal police shootings. As COVID continues to affect all aspects of life, police are playing a more pivotal role in enforcing new health and social regulations while ensuring society continues to function in a civil manner.

The welfare of the community should always take precedence. However, we need to ensure police do not move to an enforcement-only mentality to achieve this. We want our police to be safe and enforce the law, but we also want them to keep us safe.

Terry Goldsworthy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Australia had a record number of police shootings in the past year. Should we be concerned? – https://theconversation.com/australia-had-a-record-number-of-police-shootings-in-the-past-year-should-we-be-concerned-169354