Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joshua W. Blackman, Astronomer, University of Tasmania

The golden age of discovery of planets around other stars (known as exoplanets) began in 1995. Since the first discoveries, more than 4,500 worlds have been found, most of them orbiting ordinary stars like our Sun.

The Sun is about 4.6 billion years old, and Earth and all the other planets formed at about the same time. But what will happen to the planets in another 5 billion years, when the Sun eventually dies?

In a new study published in Nature, we show a glimpse of the possible future of our Solar System, when the Sun burns through all its hydrogen fuel and becomes a dead star called a white dwarf.

This possible future is depicted in the form of a white dwarf thousands of light years away, which hosts a gas giant planet on a similar orbit to Jupiter, between 2.5 and 6 times as far from its star as Earth is from the Sun.

Magnifying gravity

The journey to this discovery began in 2010, when the white dwarf and its Jupiter-like companion aligned perfectly with a much more distant star in the dense star fields at the centre of the Milky Way.

The gravity of the white dwarf and its companion acted like a magnifying glass, bending the light from the distant star and making it appear brighter to observers here on Earth. This effect, known as “gravitational microlensing”, was predicted by Einstein in 1936.

Read more:
How we found a white dwarf – a stellar corpse – by accident

While the background star was magnified, the small scale of this chance event meant we could not distinguish between the star in the foreground and the star in the background, let alone the planet.

But details in how the magnification of the background star changes over time can be used to reveal properties of the closer star and its planet. So an international team of astronomers led by those from the University of Tasmania and NASA Goddard headed to Hawai’i to use one of the largest telescopes in the world for a better look.

The Keck-II telescope atop the dormant Mauna Kea volcano has a 10-metre interlocking array of hexagonal mirrors and “laser-guided adaptive optics” to filter out “twinkling” caused by changes in the atmosphere. We used it to obtain extremely high-resolution images of both the background and foreground star.

To our surprise, however, we could not see the foreground star at all. Predictions from the original magnification event in 2010 indicated that this star, weighing about half as much as the Sun, should be visible. But we could not detect it.

After a few years grappling with our data to ensure we weren’t making a mistake, we realised we could not see the star because it is a white dwarf, which in this case was too faint to detect.

Dead stars

White dwarfs are Earth-sized remnants of ordinary stars like our Sun. About 95% of the stars in the Milky Way will eventually become white dwarfs.

In about 5 billion years’ time, when the Sun burns through all its hydrogen fuel, it will balloon in size to become a red giant, likely obliterating Mercury and Venus in the process. Earth may also be destroyed, or at least severely disrupted; if by some miracle humankind still exists by then, our distant descendants will have to move off-world to survive.

In the red giant phase, the Sun can delay its inevitable collapse by burning heavier atoms such as helium. However, this reprieve will last only 100 million years or so.

When these heavier fuels run out, the Sun will collapse into its final white dwarf state. In the collapse, the Sun will blow off about half its mass as a cloud of hot gas and push the surviving planets into a wider orbit.

For the planets, there is a fine balancing act between being swallowed up during the expansion of the red giant and possibly being ejected into deep space when the white dwarf forms. Our discovery shows what some theorists have predicted: that planets at wide enough orbits are likely to survive the death of their host star.

Because most stars end up as white dwarfs, we don’t have a very precise estimate of what this system looked like when it formed. However, the statistics favour an origin as a star not too different in mass from the Sun.

The Universe isn’t old enough for stars smaller than about 80% as big as the Sun to have evolved into white dwarfs, and stars more than about twice the size of the Sun are intrinsically rare and also more likely to experience more turbulent deaths that would destroy their planetary systems.

Using the Hubble Space Telescope or its successor, the James Webb Space Telescope (due to launch in December 2021), we hope to learn more about the system by directly measuring the incredibly faint residual light emitted by this dead sun.

Read more:
James Webb Space Telescope: An astronomer on the team explains how to send a giant telescope to space – and why

Joshua Blackman receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Andrew A. Cole receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. A distant dead star shows a glimpse of our Solar System’s future – https://theconversation.com/a-distant-dead-star-shows-a-glimpse-of-our-solar-systems-future-169631

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Hannah, Associate Professor, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

It is now common to refer to the current biodiversity crisis as the sixth mass extinction. But is this true? Are we in the middle of an event on the same scale as the five ancient mass extinctions Earth has experienced?

Humans are indeed driving animals and plants to extinction. Land clearance, habitat modification and, above all, climate change are all placing biodiversity under stress.

Many species have died out since the arrival of humans and many more are threatened.

But to answer this question fully, we have to look at the rates at which species were going extinct before the appearance of humans and compare it to today’s rate.

Life on Earth has diversified from a single cell more than 3.7 billion years ago to the estimated 8.7 million species alive today.

But as I describe in my book Extinctions: living and dying in the margin of error, this journey has been a roller coaster ride. There have been times when biodiversity exploded with many new species evolving relatively quickly. Conversely, there have been extremely short intervals of time when biodiversity crashed in a mass extinction.

The scale of biodiversity loss in a mass extinction is extraordinary. In the five mass extinctions on Earth, estimates of species loss range from around 70% at the end of the Cretaceous up to 95% at the end of the Permian, the largest of the mass extinctions.

Each of these events resulted in a wave of extinctions washing across all of the planet’s ecosystems. Reefs were wiped out, dinosaurs disappeared, insect species were decimated and plants went through massive upheavals. It took up to a million years for ecosystems to recover from a mass extinction.

Read more:
Ocean ecosystems take two million years to recover after mass extinction – new research

Ancient and modern extinction rates

Estimating prehuman extinction rates from the somewhat patchy fossil record is fraught. Nevertheless, researchers have managed do it, albeit using only vertebrate fossils.

Their estimate suggests prior to the arrival of humans, vertebrate species were going extinct at the rate of about two per million species lost every year.

In 2015, another research team took this estimate and compared it with present day vertebrate extinction rates. They found vertebrates are going extinct 53 times faster today than they were before humans arrived.

If the increase in extinction rates recorded in vertebrates is on a similar scale across the planet’s entire biota, humans have triggered a significant rise in the rate of species going extinct.

But is that enough to consider our current biotic crisis a mass extinction?

To answer that question, we need to consult the Red List run by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (ICUN). This list is an attempt to assess the threat of extinction of all known species by assigning each to a category of descending threat: extinct or extinct in the wild, severe threat of extinction, threatened and so on.

Are we there yet?

A glance across the Red List confirms that, as with the ancient mass extinctions, today’s species loss affects the entire biosphere. However, the situation changes when we compare the current level of extinction with those from the big five mass extinctions.

As noted above, the loss of species during the ancient mass extinctions is massive. Data from the Red List suggest we haven’t come close to those. For example, the Red List assigns only 1.46% of mammal species to the extinct or extinct in the wild categories. It considers less than 1% of amphibian species are extinct or extinct in the wild. For insects, it’s 0.65%, bivalves 4% and corals 0%. This level of species loss isn’t close to the losses recorded in the fossil record.

While the rate at which species are going extinct has risen and the entire ecosystem is affected, we have, at the moment at least, only low levels of extinction.

Unfortunately, species extinction levels show only part of the problem. To see the full extent of the crisis, we need to add the species the Red List considers to be under threat of extinction to those already extinct.

When we do, the picture changes. Taken together, the percentage of mammals that are extinct or under threat of extinction rises from 1.46% to 23.48%, amphibian numbers rise to 33.56%, insects to 19.23% and corals to 26.85%. These numbers demonstrate the true scale of the threat facing the planet’s biosphere.

Read more:
Animals are disappearing from forests, with grave consequences for the fight against climate breakdown – new research

I don’t like referring to today’s crisis as a mass extinction because it allows us to focus entirely on extinction levels, and they are low. Others have coined a new term to reflect the fact that although many species are extinct, there are many more threatened with extinction: defaunation.

Defaunation better describes the crisis unfolding in the planet’s biosphere. To avoid a slide into a full-blown mass extinction, we must not allow defaunation to continue. We know how to do this: reduce emissions, protect vulnerable ecosystems and regenerate degraded ones.

Michael Hannah is affiliated with NZ Labour party

– ref. Humans are driving animals and plants to the edge. But are we really heading into a mass extinction? – https://theconversation.com/humans-are-driving-animals-and-plants-to-the-edge-but-are-we-really-heading-into-a-mass-extinction-168839

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Crommelin, Senior Lecturer in City Planning, UNSW

Buying an apartment is the biggest financial commitment many of us will ever make. Unfortunately, our new research shows that defects in apartment buildings are commonplace: just over half of Sydney’s apartments had at least one type of defect, while more than one in four had at least three different defects. We also found it is virtually impossible for buyers to know whether the apartment they are buying is good quality.

This is perilous for prospective home-buyers, given the market is based on the idea of “buyer beware”, which means it is the buyer’s responsibility to make sure they are happy with the quality before they sign the contract. It also represents a clear case of market failure.

Building defects in apartments have been in the news a lot in NSW since the evacuation of the Opal Tower in late 2018. The NSW parliament is now holding its second inquiry into the issue. And this week, it was reported that an engineer’s report has found an apartment building in Sydney’s south-west to be at serious risk of collapse due to structural flaws.

Read more:
The big lesson from Opal Tower is that badly built apartments aren’t only an issue for residents

But despite all the attention, it’s been very difficult to get reliable figures on just how common building defects in apartments are. We set out to tackle this question by collecting information about defects for a random sample of 635 strata schemes completed between 2008-2017 across three Sydney local government areas.

Among the strata schemes for which we found detailed information, 51% had at least one type of building defect. Even more concerningly, 28% had at least three types of defects, and 12% had more than 10 different types.

These aren’t just insignificant, cosmetic issues like broken tiles – common problems included water leaks, cracking and flaws in fire safety systems. These results align with estimates released earlier this week by the NSW Building Commissioner, based on a survey of strata managers, which found four in ten recently completed buildings have “some form of major defects”.

We also interviewed 66 industry experts, and only three said they didn’t think defects had become more common in recent decades.

While these findings are worrying, we believe our figures are actually conservative estimates of the true number of defects in strata schemes, given the difficulty we had getting detailed records. For many buildings in our sample, we couldn’t locate reliable information about whether defects existed or not, despite having a team of researchers working on the task and considerable support from our industry partners.

This experience has led us to conclude the apartment market in NSW has a serious problem with “information asymmetry”. This means sellers have far more information than buyers about the underlying quality of the apartments for sale, and there is no way for buyers to be confident about the quality of the building they are considering buying into. This puts them at real risk of buying a property with defects, which they will then be responsible for fixing.

The process of defect rectification can put significant stress on people’s health and well-being, and their finances. In the worst-case scenario, the building may pose a serious safety risk, or owners may be left with a property nobody wants to buy.

Read more:
There are lessons to be drawn from the cracks that appeared in Sydney’s Opal Tower, but they extend beyond building certification

On a more positive note, much has changed in NSW since the Opal Tower evacuation. In mid-2019, the government introduced a new Office of the Building Commissioner (OBC), with responsibility for improving the quality of construction and stamping out poor building practices. The OBC has introduced new laws and provided more oversight of the construction industry, and the early evidence is that building quality is improving. This means fewer owners should have to struggle with rectifying defects in future (if you’re in this situation right now, this how-to guide may help).

It is vital to improve the quality of construction so fewer defects occur, but we will never eradicate defects completely. To protect all owners and residents, we also need to make sure that when buildings have defects, it’s easier to find out about them and understand their impact. Buyers should be able to factor this in when considering a property. And owners who have defects should get more support from government to get them fixed.

Read more:
Dealing with apartment defects: a how-to guide for strata owners and buyers

While the OBC has now made it easier for owners to take legal action against developers and builders for defective work, there is much more to be done. In particular, improving the processes for inspecting buildings and reporting defects would help, as would a longer warranty period and better insurance coverage. We also need to improve the quality and consistency of strata inspection reports, which are the main way buyers can research any issues a building might have.

To make sure all these things happen, we need the NSW government to commit to keeping the OBC in place long-term and giving it the resources it needs to keep bolstering the rights of apartment owners and buyers. It’s not fair to make apartment owners run the gauntlet of an opaque market, or bear the cost and responsibility of fixing mistakes that others have made.

With one in five NSW households living in private apartments (plus more in public housing), the safety and security of apartment living needs to be a top government priority.

Laura Crommelin receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Strata Community Australia (NSW), Strata Community Insurance, the Australian College of Strata Lawyers, Lannock Strata Finance and Ross Taylor & Associates.

Bill Randolph currently receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Strata Communities Australia. Lannock Strata Finance, the Australian College of Community Association Lawyers, Ross Taylor and Associates, Strata Community Insurance Agencies,the Australian Research Data Commons and the National Housing Finance Investment Corporation.

Hazel Easthope receives funding from the Australian Research Council, AHURI, Australian Research Data Commons, Strata Community Association (NSW and National), Strata Community Insurance, the Australian College of Strata Lawyers, Lannock Strata Finance and Ross Taylor & Associates. She is affiliated with the Australian College of Strata Lawyers.

Martin Loosemore receives funding from Australian Research Council

– ref. Water leaks, cracks and flawed fire safety systems: Sydney’s apartments are riddled with building defects – https://theconversation.com/water-leaks-cracks-and-flawed-fire-safety-systems-sydneys-apartments-are-riddled-with-building-defects-169526

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lucy Beaumont, Senior Deputy Section Editor: Health + Medicine

A survey by the Australian Science Media Centre, published today, found around 20% of the 50 Australian scientists who responded have received threats of physical or sexual violence when speaking about COVID in the media.

Around 62% said they’d been subjected to trolling.

The Centre also worked with science journal Nature to survey scientists internationally, and found 15% said they’d received death threats, and 22% were subjected to threats of physical or sexual violence.

The Conversation spoke to five researchers in Australia who’ve lent their expertise extensively to media and public discussion around COVID.

Here’s what they said about their experiences of abuse and trolling amid the pandemic.

Raina MacIntyre, Professor of Global Biosecurity, UNSW

I’ve been subjected to abuse or threats on a regular basis after sharing my expertise on COVID in the media.

This has included threatening and abusive emails and abusive, bullying social media posts, often orchestrated by gangs of trolls who aim to silence and discredit me.

Racism and misogyny are part of it. They simultaneously spruik pseudoscience and anti-science agendas which have come to Australia from overseas.

Everything during this pandemic has been polarising. Public health measures for epidemic control are draconian in nature (such as masks and movement restrictions). Many people want to shoot the messenger and think they can magically return to 2019 if people who understand pandemics are silenced and discredited.

We really do live in a post-truth world, where pseudoscience and anti-science have become mainstream. Vaccines and masks have been polarising at different times.

I try to shut out negativity from my life – negative people and negative social media. I block trolls. It’s hard when people you know are part of a gang of bullies and trolls, because it feels impolite to block them – so I mute them instead.

It does dissuade me from sharing my expertise. I avoid media mostly and focus on my research. The pandemic will play out regardless of what media I do, so I have taken the opportunity to refer journalists to younger researchers, to give them an opportunity to do media.

Read more:
New research shows trolls don’t just enjoy hurting others, they also feel good about themselves

Holly Seale, Associate Professor and infectious disease social scientist, UNSW

It’s been an eye-opening experience in the last 18 months. Prior to 2020, my media appearances were more sporadic than they are now. So COVID was a baptism of fire.

To date, I’ve not received any threatening remarks, nor have there been any attacks on my appearance. But I have had emails, letters and phone calls questioning my judgement and expertise. I’ve also received commentary about how I respond to questions, the language and phrasing that I use.

All the commentary I’ve received has been from men and it has included numerous phone calls where I’ve been instructed to listen to the person outline all the reasons why I’m wrong. The sense they’re entitled to refute what I’m saying comes across the strongest during these calls.

Conversations with other academics have helped! Having a network of colleagues, who are often experiencing similar issues, to debrief with has also been critical.

Training to support media engagement must also include examples about how to navigate abuse, negative feedback and threats, and how to support your mental well-being. Media appearances happen at all hours, weekends, and weekdays. Late on a Friday night, I received a suggestive email following a TV appearance. Having a contact person to flag the email and to receive guidance about next steps (if any) may also help alleviate some anxiety.

Adrian Esterman, Professor of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of South Australia

It hasn’t been a major issue for me. Just the odd comment about people in ivory towers shouldn’t comment about what is happening in real life, and someone objecting to my style of writing! Nothing major.

But it is always a bit of a jolt to the system when you cop some abuse.

About once a week I get someone on Twitter not being very polite, and even emails from them. Things like, “How dare you say……”, and if lots of people die from being vaccinated, it will be your fault!

I simply ignore them – my daughter has taught me never to respond to trolls.

It doesn’t dissuade me from sharing my expertise at all. I think if you’re going to be a public figure, then you have to expect to cop some abuse. There will always be a small element of people who disagree with you, and are happy to say so in a rude way.

Read more:
How do we counter COVID misinformation? Challenge it directly with the facts

Fiona Russell, Professor and paediatrician, epidemiologist and vaccinologist, The University of Melbourne

Surprisingly I have very few trolls and I haven’t been threatened in any way. However, I have been mansplained on the topic of COVID epidemiology in children and the public health measures to keep them safe.

I’m a paediatrician, infectious diseases epidemiologist and vaccinologist. I have training in infectious diseases modelling. I have won Australia’s leading infectious diseases research prize (along with seven other women), and won the Chancellor’s PhD Prize from the University of Melbourne for a clinical trial that helped change WHO vaccine policy. I advise DFAT and WHO on COVID vaccine use in the region, and am a member of WHO COVID in schools advisory group.

And yet, I’ve been described on Twitter as having “no special skills” when it comes to interpreting clinical and public health data pertaining to COVID in children. Thanks to others on Twitter for calling this out. I’m sure many of my female colleagues and peers can relate!

Nial Wheate, Associate Professor of the Sydney Pharmacy School, University of Sydney

I’ve been writing for The Conversation now for nearly ten years, and since the outbreak of COVID, I’ve authored ten articles on medicines thought to treat either the virus or the symptoms of its infection.

These have included established drugs like remdesivir and interferon-beta, new drugs like sotrovimab and molnupiravir, and publicly controversial drugs like ivermectin.

With my pre- and post-COVID writing I have never received what I would define as abuse or threats because of what I have written.

Read more:
How to deal with the Craig Kelly in your life: a guide to tackling coronavirus contrarians

Often, my articles receive quite a few comments, and occasionally I receive personal emails as well. This is especially true when I write on medicines people have strong opinions about, such as cannabis or ivermectin.

Usually, these sincere but condescending comments are an attempt to tell me that what I have written is wrong, and the authors usually back up their comments with links and articles. The information the commenters base their stance on is usually obviously poor quality, at least to an expert in the area, or published by organisations with a clear agenda or conflict of interest.

Because their comments are usually aimed at “educating me” I’ve thankfully never felt that my well-being was at risk and I’ve never needed to take measures to protect myself.

– ref. 5 Australian COVID experts on receiving abuse and trolling amid the pandemic – https://theconversation.com/5-australian-covid-experts-on-receiving-abuse-and-trolling-amid-the-pandemic-169825

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christian Downie, Associate Professor, Australian National University

The COP26 climate negotiations are just weeks away, and the tide is now turning against international finance of coal-fired power generation. The implications for Australia cannot be ignored.

China, Japan and South Korea have been three of the largest public funders of overseas coal projects, pouring billions of dollars into new coal-fired power plants across the Asia-Pacific. This has enabled a wave of coal projects in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia and Vietnam.

But in recent months, the three funding nations have each made public statements about curtailing or ending taxpayer support for new international coal power. It follows a pledge in May this year by the G7 nations, which includes Japan, to stop financing unabated overseas coal power generation by the end of 2021.

For Australia, the writing is on the wall – the world is moving away from coal power, and we must follow suit.

Big coal funders

Between 2010 and 2019, Japan channelled around US$2.98 billion in overseas development finance to coal-fired generation in the Asia-Pacific.

For example, the Japan Bank for International Cooperation supported the development of Indonesia’s PLTU Tanjung Jati B power station, along with a consortuim of private lenders.

Governments that lend to overseas coal power generation projects say it helps alleviate energy poverty, or a lack of access to energy in developing nations.

Yet reaching global emissions-reduction targets partly depends on slowing the pipeline of coal power generation, including in Southeast Asia. So while investing in coal projects in developing nations might boost access to energy in the short term, the climate consequences are much worse.

What’s more, the risk these assets will become “stranded” appears not to have been systematically incorporated into project assessments in recipient countries, or by lending countries. That means the value or profitability of these assets may well plummet, especially as recipient countries implement stronger climate policies.

A second driver of overseas coal financing is to give companies from the financing country a competitive edge internationally.

State-backed financing bodies can provide direct loans, insurance and guarantees, known as export credits to foreign buyers. This can help improve the competitiveness of infrastructure exports, such as power plant technology, from companies in the financing country.

China’s aggressive use of export credits to support its companies abroad, including in the coal industry, has been one reason why countries like Japan and South Korea continued to do the same.

Read more:
5 reasons why the Morrison government needs a net-zero target, not just a flimsy plan

Leaving coal behind

But China, Japan and South Korea are now looking to move away from public support for financing new international coal projects.

China is the latest. Last month President Xi Jinping announced China would stop building coal-fired plants overseas, and will instead help developing countries to build low carbon energy projects. In part, the decision reflects growing international pressure for all nations to raise their climate ambitions.

The development also raises a tantalising possibility: countries like China, Japan, and South Korea may compete to finance large-scale renewable energy projects, such as offshore wind, in developing countries.

Such a development would be welcome, given the worrying signs that the deployment of renewable energy in developing countries is too slow to reach global climate targets. It would also help improve energy access in recipient countries.

What this means for Australia

Australia is the world’s second-largest exporter of thermal coal, and China, Japan and South Korea are its top three export markets.

These three industrial powerhouses recently announced net-zero emissions targets, and Japan and South Korea have also ratcheted up their near-term ambitions for emissions reduction. This implies their imports of coal, including from Australia, have peaked.

But the move away from overseas coal financing also sends an important signal that international support for the coal power pipeline is coming to an end. Clearly, clinging to coal is now not just bad for our climate, but bad for our economy too. As our major trading partners in the Asia-Pacific move to compete in supporting the energy transition, so should we.

Australia must seize the opportunity to become a renewable energy exporter. There will be great benefits through Australia becoming a primary exporter of clean electricity, hydrogen and critical minerals to Asia and beyond.

COP26 is a chance to show the world Australia is embracing a low-emissions future. However, this will require Australia adopting a strong emissions target for 2030 and backing it up with policies for today, not for 2050.

The longer we wait, the more we will lose as other nations gain a competitive advantage in the industries, technologies, and markets that will drive a clean energy transition.

Read more:
A promising new dawn is ours for the taking – so let’s stop counting the coal Australia must leave in the ground

Christian Downie receives funding from the Australian Research Council

In addition to his academic work, Llewelyn Hughes provides advice to a number of companies operating in the renewable energy sector in Japan.

– ref. Asia’s energy pivot is a warning to Australia: clinging to coal is bad for the economy – https://theconversation.com/asias-energy-pivot-is-a-warning-to-australia-clinging-to-coal-is-bad-for-the-economy-169541

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Penny Van Bergen, Associate Professor in Educational Psychology, Macquarie University

Students are returning to their schools after months in lockdown in Victoria, New South Wales and the ACT. Many will thrive on the return to school. Others, though, may need extra practical and emotional support to adjust in a healthy way.

Some children may experience separation anxiety from their parents, for example. Others may be worried about catching COVID-19 in the playground or about connecting with their friends again.

Read more:
From vaccination to ventilation: 5 ways to keep kids safe from COVID when schools reopen

Parents and carers might be wondering what they can do to support their child as they return to school. Here are five tips that can help.

1. Renegotiate routines

Like adults, children and teens are likely to have established quite different routines during lockdown. They may have also become accustomed to more screen time than usual.

To ease the transition to a regular school routine, it is worth making slow adjustments like getting up and going to bed at a more consistent time. Parents can support autonomy by negotiating new routines with their child. While teens may be more resistant to parents placing restrictions on their screen time, this is less likely when parents provide explanations and acknowledge teens’ perspectives.

Read more:
Children live online more than ever – we need better definitions of ‘good’ and ‘bad’ screen time

2. Allow time for adjustment

Returning to school may bring uncertainty, excitement, fatigue or other big emotions. Some children may seem particularly tired after their first few days, while others may be more sensitive or less tolerant than usual.

Don’t despair if your child seems to experience more big emotions at home than at school: this likely means that home is a safe place to return to! Help children to name any negative emotions that arise, such as frustration, and gently coach them to consider other ways of expressing themselves.

Be tolerant yourself, and don’t sweat the small things.

3. Acknowledge children’s worries

Children and teens may have specific worries related to COVID-19, to changing friendships, or to being back at school. Younger children may also experience separation anxiety after extended periods of having their families as their sole source of social connection.

If your child raises concerns about whether they will be safe returning to school, it is useful to provide simple and factual information about COVID-19 while providing gentle reminders that the adults around them are there to help them stay healthy. Adopt a problem-solving approach: helping children to focus on what they can control, rather than worrying about things that are outside our control.

Regardless of the source of their worries, it is important to acknowledge and validate your child’s feelings. You can point out that many children may be feeling the same way, and that their concerns are understandable. At the same time, remaining calm and focusing on the positive aspects of returning to school can help to relieve some of their concerns.

Read more:
7 tips to help kids feeling anxious about going back to school

4. Coach empathy

Children and teens have had different experiences during lockdown and may have different feelings about being back at school. Understanding that other children may feel differently can help your child to be a good friend.

Before returning to school, remind children that some of their friends will feel more nervous about returning than others. In primary school, some might also make different decisions about masks.

If your child has been in a “friendship bubble” with only a small number of other friends, encourage them to include those who have not. Being empathetic towards others and acknowledging how they are feeling will not only help your child socially, it is also an important socioemotional skill to master.

Read more:
7 tips for making masks work in the classroom

5. Be optimistic

Remember that most children adjust well when faced with new challenges. Parents can prompt children and teens to remember what they enjoy most about school to help them look forward to returning. Reminiscing about funny stories or enjoyable school events that children have experienced can help with this process.

It is important to still acknowledge your child’s feelings if they express a preference for learning from home. You may wish to share these concerns with their teacher. However, it is helpful for your own approach to reflect optimism and confidence. Avoid introducing your own worries if you can: parent anxiety can be contagious!

If you observe any concerning and sustained changes in your child’s behaviour as they navigate the return to school, their school or GP can help connect them with additional support. Other resources that can help include Kids Helpline, Beyond Blue, or Headspace.

Penny Van Bergen has previously received funding from the Australian Research Council.

Erin Mackenzie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. 5 ways parents can help children adjust to being at school after months in lockdown – https://theconversation.com/5-ways-parents-can-help-children-adjust-to-being-at-school-after-months-in-lockdown-169350

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Helen Hodgson, Professor, Curtin Law School and Curtin Business School, Curtin University

Moving in together is an exciting time for people in relationships. Likely the last thing on your mind is what might happen in the event of a breakup.

But it’s worth knowing that if you split, your ex could be able to file a legal claim for up to half your superannuation, under certain circumstances.

And for all states (except Western Australia), you don’t need to be married, have kids or own a house together; even people in de facto relationships may have to split their super when they break up.

For the purposes of family law, a de facto relationship is when you and your partner live together in a relationship as a couple on a genuine domestic basis but are not married.

The superannuation of both partners is included in the pool of assets divided on separation. Super is often the single biggest financial asset younger people have, so make sure you know what the law says on this question.

Here’s what you need to know.

By order of the court, or by agreement

Splitting up super could become a bigger issue in years to come, as compulsory employer contributions ratchet up. When superannuation was made compulsory almost 30 years ago, employer contributions were 3%. As of July, they’ve hit 10%. So these assets are getting bigger, faster.

According to the federal attorney-general’s website, superannuation can be split either by:

• an order of the Federal Circuit and Family Court of Australia (or Family Court of Western Australia for married couples in Western Australia); or

• a superannuation agreement (a financial agreement that deals with a superannuation interest).

The Family Law Act 1975 gives the Family Court the power to deal with superannuation interests of spouses (including de facto spouses).

The superannuation cannot usually be taken as a cash payment; in most cases, it is rolled over to the recipient’s own superannuation account.

Read more:
People are using artificial intelligence to help sort out their divorce. Would you?

But why?

These laws were designed to tackle the longstanding issue where one person in a relationship – usually a woman – would have a tiny amount of super relative to her partner.

That’s because, back a generation, it was common for women in particular to give up work and spend many of their productive years as primary carers for their children. Even now, women are more likely than men to reduce their working hours to raise a family and have a fraction of the superannuation of their male partners.

The laws are meant to ensure equity in the event of the relationship foundering, and improve the life of the person with less financial power in the relationship after it ends.

But society has changed and we are more likely to separate and re-partner. That, plus the higher amounts involved, means these cases may be cropping up more often now than in the past.

How do these laws apply to me?

You don’t have to be married to potentially have to split your assets.

It applies if you have a child together or have been in a de facto relationship for at least two years. The definition of a de facto relationship under section 4AA of the the Family Law Act 1975 is based on whether you were living together in a genuine domestic relationship.

According to the Act, a person is in a de facto relationship with another person if:

(a) the persons are not legally married to each other; and

(b) the persons are not related by family

(c) having regard to all the circumstances of their relationship, they have a relationship as a couple living together on a genuine domestic basis.

The circumstances of the relationship are set out and include matters such as how you organise your financial arrangements, whether you have children, your commitment to a life together and whether other people would see you as a couple.

So consider these issues before you move in together or take steps to cement your relationship.

Remember that any split isn’t necessarily half-half. You can enter into an agreement without going to court, but if you do end up in court the judge will take into account the relevant circumstances including whether you have kids, direct and indirect financial contributions to the relationship, and the ongoing needs of each party.

And if a relationship has ended in bitterness, judges will hopefully be alert to the possibility a legal claim for an ex-partner’s super could be part of a vindictive effort to cause distress, and take that into account.

Go in with your eyes open

It’s not common for people in new or de facto relationships to draw up legal documents to protect themselves.

Go in with your eyes open, but you do have to have a certain amount of trust. Engaged couples do sometimes look at drawing up a financial agreement (a prenuptial agreement), which can address issues like super.

You can read more about superannuation and your rights in the event of a breakup on the federal attorney general’s website, which has also produced a “frequently asked questions” factsheet on the matter.

You can also:

• search online for factsheets on the issue produced by your state government

• contact a legal aid organisation in your state or contact a free legal helpline such as LawAccess NSW or its equivalent in Victoria.

Remember, a financial agreement – either before or after the relationship has broken down – is not binding if both parties have not obtained financial advice.

Couples who have already been through the difficulties of divorce, separation, or being widowed may be more likely to make legal arrangements to choose what will happen in the event of separation or death, particularly if they want to make sure children from that relationship are financially secure.

And absolutely everyone – young and old – should look seriously into where your super will go in the event that you die. It’s important to ensure your super goes where you want it to.

Read more:
Voluntary super: a good way to increase women’s dependence on men

Helen Hodgson has received funding from the ARC, AHURI and CPA Australia. Helen is the Chair of the Social Policy Committee and a Director of the National Foundation for Australian Women (NFAW), and is on the Tax and Superannuation Advisory Panel of ACOSS. Helen was a Member of the WA Legislative Council in WA from 1997 to 2001, elected as an Australian Democrat. She is not a current member of any political party. She is a Registered Tax Agent and a member of the SMSF Association.

– ref. Why your ex may be able to claim half your superannuation, even if you aren’t married – https://theconversation.com/why-your-ex-may-be-able-to-claim-half-your-superannuation-even-if-you-arent-married-169465

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jason Bainbridge, Executive Dean of the Faculty of Arts and Design, University of Canberra

Superman is bisexual.

Not the movie-starring, Lois Lane-loving , Klan-fighting, Muhammad Ali-boxing, returned-from-the-dead , mild-mannered man of steel Clark Kent (aka Kal-El, last son of Krypton). But rather his son, Jonathan Kent, named after Clark’s adoptive father and current bearer of the Superman moniker.

Issue #5 of Superman: Son of Kal-El (authored by Melbourne-based writer Tom Taylor) will be out this November, and will feature Jon sharing a kiss with friend and online journalist Jay Nakamura.

Apart from proving Superman has always had a thing for reporters, Jon expressing his sexuality is a watershed moment in the venerable franchise.

Queering the comics

Queer representation has always been read into superhero comics. This may not be surprising: they are a genre composed of essentially-nude-figures-in-action, with same-sex sidekicks and sapphic suggestiveness.

German-American psychiatrist Fredric Wertham believed comics were a corrupting influence. His book, Seduction of the Innocent, argued Batman and Robin’s relationship was inherently sexual, which therefore made comics inappropriate for children.

His lobbying resulted in the creation of the Comics Code Authority, a censorship body that forbade any mention of homosexuality from 1954 until 1989.

This left secondary characters, like X-Men villains Mystique and Destiny, to be heavily coded as queer – even if their sexual preferences could never actually be stated.

When the code was relaxed in the 1990s, characters who came out as queer were invariably third-tier superheroes (like Alpha Flight’s Northstar, caricatures (like the insultingly effeminate Extraño) or characters in “mature-age” titles (like John Constantine or the Doom Patrol’s non-binary Rebis).

Read more:
How a Canadian superhero brought queer representation to Marvel Comics

Only in recent years have “top-tier” characters like the X-Men’s Iceman, supervillain Loki, Harley Quinn and Poison Ivy, the Kate Kane Batwoman and, in August of this year, the Tim Drake Robin have also come out.

I call these characters “top-tier” because they are known to audiences not only from their comic appearances, but also film, television and cartoon adaptations.

Superman is the most high-profile and visible superhero to express their sexuality in this way.

A social justice superhero

Superman is often assumed to be an unambiguously benign character, particularly in contrast with the more psychologically complex Batman.

But Superman began his career as a crusader for social justice.

In his first issue, he rescues a prisoner from a lynch mob (condemning capital punishment), takes on a wife beater (condemning domestic violence) and takes down a corrupt senator (speaking out against political corruption).

Superman was conceived as a Champion of the Oppressed that millions affected by the Great Depression were crying out for.

Many Superman writers and artists over the years have tried to remain true to these social justice roots.

Look magazine commissioned his creators to produce a two page feature on “how Superman would end the war” on 22 February 1940, nearly two years before Pearl Harbor.

The frequently outlandish Superman comics of the 1950s regularly warned against unbridled scientific experimentation.

John Byrne’s 1980s reboot saw Superman tackle the corporate greed, the power of the mass media and gun violence of the Reagan era.

But in sharp distinction to these portrayals, Superman’s role as the first superhero – and therefore elder statesman of the comics world – frequently saw him presented as a tool of government, rather than a reformer.

In the 1960s’ Justice League of America, he was portrayed as a conservative voice in contrast to more liberal, socially-minded characters like Green Arrow.

Read more:
Superman at 80: How two high school friends concocted the original comic book hero

In Darwyn Coke’s 1950s-set DC: The New Frontier (2004), it is Superman who acts as Senator Joseph McCarthy’s agent in the field, bringing in “rogue” superheroes who refuse to resign.

Perhaps most famously, in Batman: The Dark Knight Returns (1986), Superman appears on behalf of the totalitarian Reaganite government of this parallel 1980s to bring in Batman.

This has created an identity crisis at the heart of Superman, as great as his dual identities of Kal-El and Clark Kent. Is Superman a social justice reformer or conservative Government supporter?

Jon Kent helps to resolve these tensions. Suddenly, we have a Superman who can be truly representative of the 2021 audience, while insulating the elder Superman as a more conservative and paternal figure.

Times of transition

With Superman’s coming out, queer representation has moved from the periphery to become just another component of a superhero’s identity.

Of course, for every reader that celebrates now being able to see themselves in Superman in a way they haven’t before, there will be another bemoaning “bisexual Superman”.

Perhaps it’s worth remembering comic book superheroes were born and enjoy their greatest popularity during times of transition and uncertainty: economic crisis, armed conflict or political precarity. There’s no reason why expressing one’s sexual identity cannot similarly be understood as one of these moments of transition and uncertainty.

In this way, Jon Kent expressing his bisexuality is just as true to the legacy of Superman as Clark Kent’s social justice crusade 82 years ago.

Jason Bainbridge does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The queer subtext of Superman comics has long been suppressed. Here’s to the original justice defender coming out – https://theconversation.com/the-queer-subtext-of-superman-comics-has-long-been-suppressed-heres-to-the-original-justice-defender-coming-out-169730

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Murray Wesson, Senior Lecturer in Law, The University of Western Australia

The High Court has unanimously rejected claims by mining magnate Clive Palmer and his company Mineralogy that legislation passed by the Western Australian parliament intended to prevent him from claiming billions in damages was unconstitutional.

The High Court’s decisions are a resounding victory for the Western Australian government. In the short term, the state has been spared a damages claim that may have amounted to nearly $30 billion – almost equivalent to its annual budget.

WA Premier Mark McGowan called the judgment a “monumental victory” for West Australians, saying it confirmed the parliament did “the right thing” by standing up to Palmer.

So, what did the court find and what will it mean for the state moving forward?

What the dispute is about

The dispute between Palmer and the WA government began in 2012 over an iron ore project in the Pilbara. Palmer argued his development proposals for the Balmoral South iron ore project were unlawfully refused by the previous state government.

These claims were pursued through arbitration – a dispute resolution process that happens outside the courts.

In an extraordinary step last year, the WA parliament passed the so-called Mineralogy Act, which sought to protect the state from having to pay any damages to Palmer.

Palmer challenged the Mineralogy Act on a host of grounds, all of which were rejected by the High Court.

Read more:
How Clive Palmer could challenge the act designed to stop him getting $30 billion

The state can amend agreements with mining companies

As is common in the mining industry, Mineralogy holds its mining project rights under a “state agreement” with WA. This is an agreement that sets out a framework for mining approvals and payments and is incorporated in an act of parliament.

Palmer claimed the WA parliament did not follow the proper amendment process outlined in the state agreement when it unilaterally passed the Mineralogy Act.

However, the High Court said the process in the agreement did not apply to parliament. As such, parliament could unilaterally amend the state agreement.

This could have implications for other state agreements with mining companies, as the state could likely change the terms whenever it wants to.

Denying arbitration awards not unconstitutional

Palmer and Mineralogy were granted two favourable arbitration decisions that were key to their damages claims. He had registered the two awards in the Queensland Supreme Court.

However, the Mineralogy Act deems these arbitration awards to be of no effect.

Palmer argued this meant the Mineralogy Act breached section 118 of the Australian Constitution, which requires full recognition of the laws of other states (in this case, Queensland).

The High Court rejected this argument because all states’ commercial arbitration laws permit a court to refuse to recognise an award if it is invalid in the state where it was made, in this case Western Australia.

Not a breach separation of powers

The separation of powers is a key constitutional principle that says powers should be separated between the three branches of government – the legislature, executive and the judiciary.

Palmer argued the Mineralogy Act interfered with the integrity of the state courts and was an exercise of judicial power by the Western Australian parliament.

The High Court found the effect of the Mineralogy Act might be to change existing legal rights, but this did not amount to a breach of the separation of powers.

The law may have been extreme, but the court ruled it did not interfere with the integrity of the courts, nor was it an exercise of judicial power by the parliament.

Read more:
Meet Mark McGowan: the WA leader with a staggering 88% personal approval rating

…or a breach of rule of law

Palmer also argued the Mineralogy Act breached the rule of law by preventing him and his company from pursuing their damages claim.

Although the Australian Constitution does not expressly mention the rule of law, the High Court has said on more than one occasion that it is an “assumption” of the Constitution.

However, the High Court has also said the courts should be wary of giving content to the rule of law that cannot be found in the Constitution itself. In other words, Palmer needed to point to specific provisions of the Constitution that supported his claim the rule of law had been breached. This he was unable to do.

The Mineralogy Act may have changed legal rights, but the court said it did not amount to a breach of the rule of law under the Constitution.

Read more:
After Clive Palmer’s $60 million campaign, limits on political advertising are more important than ever

What are the potential implications of the ruling?

Mineralogy and Palmer have a number of other related court cases on foot, including a consumer law claim against Western Australia.

While the High Court did not consider the validity of provisions under the new law directly related to these claims, its ruling may still have an impact. By finding in favour of the state for some of the Mineralogy Act provisions, it may undermine the basis for Palmer’s other claims.

From a political standpoint, the outcome is also likely to bolster the popularity of the McGowan government.

Palmer has also claimed the Mineralogy Act would deter companies from investing in WA, but whether the new law – or the High Court judgement – undermines investor confidence in the state remains to be seen.

Murray Wesson has previously received funding from the International Mining for Development Centre (IM4DC).

Ian Murray has previously received funding from Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and the Minerals Council of Australia for research relating to Indigenous benefits management structures.

– ref. Explainer: why did the High Court rule against Clive Palmer and what does the judgment mean? – https://theconversation.com/explainer-why-did-the-high-court-rule-against-clive-palmer-and-what-does-the-judgment-mean-169633

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Naomi Priest, Professor, ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National University

Lego announced this week it would work to remove gender stereotypes from its brand, including no longer marketing toys distinctly to boys or girls and ensuring products are gender-neutral.

This move by one of the world’s most powerful brands comes in response to research the Danish toy manufacturer commissioned to understand how parents and children think about creativity.

The survey of nearly 7,000 parents and children across seven countries found strong endorsement of traditional gender roles among both boys and girls, with 78% of boys and 73% of girls agreeing “it’s okay to teach boys to be boys and girls to be girls”.

71% of boys were worried about being judged or made fun of for playing with toys gendered for girls and 54% of parents worry their sons will be made fun of if they play with toys associated with girls, compared to only 26% of parents worrying about the reverse.

Overall, the results suggest boys feel more pressure to conform to gender roles and norms for creative activities than girls. But the perceptions and beliefs of others may also be holding girls back. When toys are gendered, all children pay the price.

We recently conducted a systematic review of gender stereotypes and biases in early childhood.

Awareness of gender as a social category develops early in life, and insight into some gender stereotypes begins early. For example, preschool aged children can hold beliefs such as only boys can be policemen and only girls can be teachers or nurses.

Gender and racial stereotyping and prejudice can be observed in children as young as three to four years of age, as children take on cues from around them to decode and understand the world.

Shopping and ‘fixing things’

When children observe different toys and tasks for different groups, they can learn stereotypes and prejudices, such as viewing shopping as an activity for girls and “fixing things” and using tools as activities for boys. This can reinforce rigid binary views of gender.

Such stereotypes and prejudices can be carried throughout life, making early childhood critical for setting the foundations for lifelong attitudes.

The Lego research found parents were more likely to encourage their daughters to engage in activities that are more cognitive, artistic and performative (dressing up, dancing, colouring, singing and arts and crafts), and more likely to encourage their sons to engage more in digital activities, science and building.

Read more:
Barbie for boys? The gendered tyranny of the toy store

Beliefs and expectations about what types of toys and play are appropriate for girls and boys can compound over time.

Some studies show that play with some stereotypical girls’ toys, such as princess toys, is associated with more female gender-stereotypical behaviour among children.

Not engaging in play with construction toys may mean girls miss opportunities to develop spatial skills and mechanical reasoning skills necessary for careers in science, technology, engineering and mathematics: fields in which women continue to be under-represented.

Rigid gender lines

Toys are only one way in which children learn gender roles and stereotypes: they also learn from who they see around them in their daily lives, from the books they read and the TV shows they watch.

Parents and caregivers have a key role in encouraging children of all genders to engage with a wide range of activities and toys.

But since the 1970s, toys have become increasingly and rigidly demarcated along binary gender lines.

Even Lego’s own marketing history demonstrates this: compare the gender neutral advertisements from the early 1980s to more recent gender specific marketing with pink bricks and heart shapes.

The prevention of potentially harmful gender attitudes and stereotypes in childhood – before they become entrenched – is a key element in moves to achieve gender equity and to support health and wellbeing throughout life.

Efforts to reduce the gendered nature of toys and their marketing is one step we can take to give all children more equitable options for how they see themselves, the world, and their future.

Read more:
Beyond pink and blue: the quiet rise of gender-neutral toys

Naomi Priest receives funding from the ARC, NHMRC and from government and non-government sources.

Tania King receives funding from the Australian Research Council (DE200100607).

– ref. Lego’s return to gender neutral toys is good news for all kids. Our research review shows why – https://theconversation.com/legos-return-to-gender-neutral-toys-is-good-news-for-all-kids-our-research-review-shows-why-169722

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The Morrison Government is in the painful throes of a climate policy shift to embrace a target of net zero by 2050, ahead of next month’s Glasgow conference. This requires a deal with the divided, noisy, fractious Nationals.

We’re joined in this podcast by Tony Wood, Director of the Energy Program at the Grattan Institute, to talk about Glasgow, Australia’s policy and the fallout from the necessary transition to lower emissions.

“[The government] will talk about […] how technology will be fundamentally important to meeting a net zero target. And that’s absolutely true,” Wood says.

[But] policy will be important as well.

“The government job, then, is to address the barriers and issues that arise.

“In some cases, it will mean losses of jobs in some sectors, but it also means growth of jobs in other sectors. And that’s where the big opportunities lie.

“Sectors actually are not really looking to be protected from the consequences of reducing emissions. In fact, they want to be part of the process of driving these changes, so they can actually have some control over their destiny,” Wood says.

“So the farming community wants to be part of the solution. They’ve already committed themselves to net zero by dates which are much earlier than 2050. And now the Business Council, which represents some of those big mining companies for example, they’ve also committed to net zero by 2050.

“As you think about winners and losers […] we do know that one thing is for certain – that losers shout about their losses much more than the winners boast about their gains.

“So what the government puts in place to try and bring those areas of the economy along with them, where the concerns will arise, will be fundamentally important. They will obviously have had to provide some sort of concessions in the announcements around how they’re going to ensure that rural and regional and mining communities are being considered in this process.”

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Grattan Institute’s Tony Wood on managing the shift in climate policy – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-grattan-institutes-tony-wood-on-managing-the-shift-in-climate-policy-169838

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Courtney Melton, PhD Candidate in the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, and Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland

Noisy miners are familiar to many of us on Australia’s east coast as plucky grey birds relentlessly harassing other birds, dive-bombing dogs and people – even expertly opening sugar packets at your local café.

Noisy miners are native to Australia. Since colonisation their populations have boomed, and they’re now so abundant they pose a threat to other native birds in our cities, farmland and bush, such as robins, thornbills and other honeyeaters.

Culling noisy miners is often touted as a way to deal with the problem, but given the birds are native, it’s a controversial proposition. And so far, attempts to remove noisy miners have had mixed success.

To help land managers assess whether culls are likely to be effective and justified, our new research sought to understand how, and in what situations, culling helps small birds, such as the iconic superb fairy-wren, return to a site.

But what we found was unexpected, and counter-intuitive. Our results showed small birds do usually benefit from removing miners, even though neighbouring miners usually recolonise the area.

The noisy miner problem

Human activity has caused many Australian species to decline dramatically, and 100 species have been listed as extinct since European colonisation. But for a very small number of species, these changes to the landscape have been beneficial. The noisy miner is one of them.

These native honeyeaters are common in dry woodland and forests, and adapt to the gardens in the cities and suburbs of eastern Australia extremely well. They thrive in habitats that are open with limited understorey, and along the edges of bigger woodland or forest patches.

As humans have altered the landscape – clearing treed landscapes, dividing it up, changing fire patterns, and grazing livestock — we have unintentionally created more and more of the noisy miners’ favourite type of habitat.

Noisy miners live in colonies as large as several hundred birds, and ferociously defend their territories, chasing and attacking intruders, no matter the species.

This aggression is so extreme, they’re one of the main contributors to the decline of dozens of native bird species of eastern Australia’s woodlands, such as regent honeyeaters, varied sittellas and diamond firetails. They’re recognised as a key threatening process under national and state environmental law.

This has had severe consequences for other Australian birds attempting to persist in such a human-altered landscape, especially birds smaller than the noisy miner. This includes a wealth of endangered birds such as brown treecreepers, speckled warblers, hooded robins and jacky winters.

In fact, research from 2012 found the density of noisy miners in an area consistently determines which bird species, and how many individuals of those species, are found there.

What can we do to manage this threat?

The threat noisy miners pose to other Australian bird life is one of our own making. It will require a commitment to multiple strategies to address it.

Planting shrubs and trees in the degraded areas that noisy miners favour is important, but it can take a long time to work, and it can be very costly.

Relocating noisy miners has also been tried, but researchers have found this is ineffective. The birds either return, are aggressively harassed by other miners in their new location, or both.

So, lethal control has been trialled as a potential alternative. Over the past three decades, scientists and land managers have removed noisy miners under permit in woodland areas, often to protect critically endangered species such as the regent honeyeater.

But results have been mixed

We looked at 45 instances of lethal control of noisy miners. In some cases, culling caused substantial reductions in the number of miners in an area, and the number of small birds increased. In others, neighbouring noisy miners rapidly recolonised the area.

For example, a 2018 study culled more than 3,000 noisy miners. And yet, researchers found the culls led to no significant reduction in the number of miners at the site, as neighbouring miners rapidly recolonised the site.

Read more:
Only the lonely: an endangered bird is forgetting its song as the species dies out

Another series of noisy miner culls were conducted specifically to relieve pressure to critically endangered regent honeyeaters during their breeding season. These culls were reported as successful, and saw the broader community of songbirds increase.

To confuse things further still, even when removals were reported as “unsuccessful” in their attempts to reduce noisy miner numbers at a site, our researched revealed that the number of small birds almost always increased substantially.

This might be because the removal disrupts the social structure of the colony, causing the miners to focus on reasserting social roles rather than chasing other species. We’re not yet sure how long this relatively peaceful period lasts.

So what’s behind these counter-intuitive results? Frustratingly, there were no definitive environmental factors or methods that were more likely to result in
significantly reduced noisy miner numbers, or significantly increased numbers of small birds across all the studies we looked at.

To work out what gives a removal the best chance of success, we need to collect more data and ensure all future attempts are monitored over time so we can see how long the benefits last.

Until we know more about why and when removals work, we’re limited in knowing when they should be recommended.

What if you have noisy miners on your property?

We know noisy miners like open, grassy areas beneath eucalypts — think golf courses. So planting more shrubs and bushes to increase the complexity and diversity of native plants in your yard may help deter them, while providing new habitat for smaller birds to hide in.

Noisy miners are attracted to a variety of nectar sources too, so limit nectar-heavy species such as eucalypts and grevilleas — beautiful as they are.

Culling native species for conservation needs to be well justified – and legal. Leave lethal control to trained experts with permits; do not attempt such direct control yourself no matter how big of a nuisance they might be.

Read more:
Stop the miners: you can help Australia’s birds by planting native gardens

Courtney Melton receives funding from Australian Government Postgraduate Award. This research was supported by the New South Wales Government’s Saving our Species Program and the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program.

Courtney Melton is currently on the board of directors for the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Section, and the Society for Conservation Biology Brisbane Chapter President.

April Reside is the co-chair of the Black-throated Finch Recovery Team and is on Birdlife Australia’s Research and Conservation Committee. April has received funding from the NESP Threatened Species Recovery Hub, and is a member of the Ecological Society of Australia.

Jeremy Simmonds receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program’s Threatened Species Recovery Hub and The Nature Conservancy. He is a member of BirdLife Australia and the Ecological Society of Australia.

Martine Maron receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Queensland Department of Environment and Science, and the National Environmental Science Program’s Threatened Species Recovery Hub. She is a member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists, President of BirdLife Australia, and a Governor of WWF-Australia.

Michael Clarke receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Natural Hazards Research Australia. He is a member of the Board of Directors of Parks Victoria.

Paul McDonald receives funding from the NSW Government’s Saving our Species Program and the Environmental Trust, as well as the Northern Tablelands Local Land Services and the Australian Government’s National Landcare Program. He is a member of Birdlife Australia and the Australasian Society for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

– ref. Should we cull noisy miners? After decades of research, these aggressive honeyeaters are still outsmarting us – https://theconversation.com/should-we-cull-noisy-miners-after-decades-of-research-these-aggressive-honeyeaters-are-still-outsmarting-us-169524

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lesley Russell, Adjunct Associate Professor, Menzies Centre for Health Policy, University of Sydney

As Australia opens up and we learn to live with COVID-19, rapid antigen tests are likely to play an increasingly important role in limiting the spread of the virus.

So we can expect growing demand for these tests, which can give a result in minutes, and are already used in other countries, including the United Kingdom.

Airline travel, accommodation, entry to ticketed events and school attendance may depend on this type of testing. Large-scale family gatherings and community events will also want to ensure the safety of all attendees, especially if some, for whatever reason, are unvaccinated.

Read more:
Rapid antigen tests have long been used overseas to detect COVID. Here’s what Australia can learn

What are rapid antigen tests?

Rapid antigen tests have many advantages over the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests used at public testing centres. They are cheaper,
can be used anywhere at any time, and results are available within minutes. But they are also less reliable than PCR tests.

The Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) has approved dozens of these rapid antigen tests. But these are only available for use in health care, aged care, schools and workplaces.

These tests are not commercially available for home use, although this is on its way. Health Minister Greg Hunt expects home tests will be available from November 1.

Between now and then, here are four issues we need to consider if individuals and families are expected to use these tests and if rapid antigen testing is to be an effective and equitable gateway to activities and services.

1. Do they work?

The TGA will need to ensure the tests, many of which were developed more than a year ago, perform well with the Delta variant.

A Cochrane review recommends evaluations of the tests in the settings where they are intended to be used to fully establish how well they work in practice. It is not clear if this research is being done in Australia.

Tests from different manufacturers vary in accuracy and are less accurate in people without symptoms and/or with low viral loads – when they will most likely be used.

Read more:
Rapid antigen testing isn’t perfect. But it could be a useful part of Australia’s COVID response

Many home tests advise testing twice over a three-day period, with at least 36 hours between tests; they work best when testing is done regularly.

Appropriate consumer information material needs to be included with the tests to ensure people are using and interpreting them correctly at home.

There also needs to be a back-up service (such as a telephone hotline) for people who are confused, get unexpected results, and for those who test positive and need PCR testing to confirm their status.

2. Do we have enough tests?

There are already signs supply of these tests could be a problem.

The biggest Australian manufacturer of rapid antigen tests has a large government supply contract with the United States, where supply of such tests cannot keep pace with demand.

India has also recently acted to restrict export of rapid antigen tests.

There are indications the federal government has supplies for distribution to aged-care facilities and local government areas as needed. However, the extent of the stockpile – and whether tests might be released from the stockpile for home use – is unknown.

3. What will they cost?

Once approved for use at home, people will most likely be able to buy these tests in pharmacies. However, there’s been no suggestion these will be subsidised or their price controlled.

There are different international approaches. In the UK, people can order two packs of seven tests free from a government website and can pick them up from places including pharmacies and libraries.

In Germany, people can buy tests in supermarkets for about €25 (about AU$39) for a pack of five.

In the US, there are huge price variations with each test costing US$5-30 (about AU$6.80-$40.90).

In Australia, worksites in Sydney can buy tests direct from suppliers for AU$8.50-$12.50 (depending on quantity). But they also need to employ a health-care professional to oversee their use.

Companies providing rapid antigen tests are reportedly contacting schools, saying they can supply tests at A$15 each (with additional costs for a nurse and administration).

It will not be sustainable to ask parents of schoolchildren and university students to pay such costs on an ongoing basis.

Read more:
Keeping workers COVID-safe requires more than just following public health orders

4. How do we ensure equity?

US survey results indicate Americans’ willingness to regularly use home testing is price sensitive. That surely is also the case in Australia.

To date, all the signs are the federal government is taking a hands-off approach to the introduction of rapid antigen testing for home use. But it’s essential we have effective distribution mechanisms to cover all of Australia. We also need a regulated price structure and/or subsidies to make the cost of these tests affordable.

Failure to ensure availability and affordability of home testing will further disadvantage Australians already disproportionately affected by the pandemic.

Read more:
As lockdowns ease, vaccination disparities risk further entrenching disadvantage

Lesley Russell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Home rapid antigen testing is on its way. But we need to make sure everyone has access – https://theconversation.com/home-rapid-antigen-testing-is-on-its-way-but-we-need-to-make-sure-everyone-has-access-169362

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stuart M Bender, Senior Lecturer, Curtin University

The French government has just announced a trial using virtual reality to try to prevent domestic violence.

There has been considerable excitement about this, with claims the virtual reality experience is an “empathy machine” that enhances the perpetrator’s ability to empathise with a victim’s fear.

As Australia grapples with its own domestic violence crisis, overseas companies are making noises about using the technology here.

Baca juga:
Not all men’s violence prevention programs are effective: why women’s voices need to be included

In our new book Virtual Realities, we explain the need to be sceptical of claims about what virtual reality can do for social and psychological problems, including domestic violence.

What will the trial do?

The French trial will involve 30 men serving sentences, or on parole, for domestic violence. They will be volunteers, wear a virtual reality headset and watch 12-minute, 360-degree videos.

They will encounter a range of dramatised domestic abuse scenarios involving a male and female couple and later, their infant child. One example released by the French government shows a man who shouts abuse and points a knife menacingly at the camera (as seen in the tweet below).

Other sample clips show the man threatening and assaulting his female partner. This is then supposed to trigger empathy in the perpetrators.

Why we need to boost empathy

Enhancing empathy is important because violent offenders have been shown to have lower levels of what is known as “cognitive empathy” than non-offenders. This is the capacity to see a situation from another person’s perspective and understand their emotions.

This is different from “emotional empathy”, which is the ability to sense other people’s emotions. It does not mean you necessarily share that emotion, or understand why the person is feeling it.

Baca juga:
National summits have their place — but what will it really take to achieve equality for Australian women?

In the French trial, which follows similar work in Spain and the Netherlands, it is hypothesised violent offenders will show improved levels of empathy with victims after the virtual reality experience. This will in turn lead to less recidivism.

The French Ministry of Justice says the 360-degree nature of virtual reality — as opposed to simply watching TV or a movie — can “trick the brain into believing that the perpetrator is immersed in this reality”.

It is unclear what if anything else the offenders will do as part of the study, or how the trial’s effectiveness will be measured.

The growing buzz around virtual reality

In 2016, relatively low cost (though clunky) headsets came on the market, making virtual reality a more mainstream technology. Since then, virtual reality has increasingly been suggested as a digital panacea for a range of psycho-social issues.

This includes fears of things like heights and spiders and post-traumatic stress disorder in veterans. The capacity of 360-degree video to bring diverse environments to life is also being used to try to enhance cultural understanding and explore social issues such as racism.

While many of these uses have been innovative and exciting, it’s important to maintain a critical perspective. For one thing, it is no longer useful to label virtual reality a “novel” or “experimental” technology: much is now known about what it can and can’t do.

What does the research say?

Virtual reality has been found to elicit strong emotional reactions – especially those linked to the user’s own fear and anxiety. Some studies have also shown to a limited extent virtual reality programs can increase “prosocial behaviour” (behaviour that helps others).

However, studies have also demonstrated virtual reality is not successful when it comes to the longer-term cognitive empathy the French trial is supposed to generate. Using both theoretical and empirical research, these studies have challenged many techno-evangelical ideas about virtual reality.

Baca juga:
Andrew Laming: why empathy training is unlikely to work

This year, an academic review of 43 studies into virtual reality and empathy found across the 5,644 participants, cognitive empathy was not enhanced to any significant degree. Other studies have also challenged virtual reality’s capacity to lead to behaviour change. Another 2020 review of studies found “statistically significant positive changes in perspective-taking” but not in empathy.

Findings from a 2018 study specifically looking at domestic violence reported some success in boosting cognitive empathy, however the researchers acknowledge that more research is needed. Importantly, this study used an entirely different type of virtual reality experience than what has been showcased in the French trial.

What are you looking at?

Another key piece of research to consider involves eye-tracking. One of the most important findings of this research is although virtual reality viewers are “free” to look at whatever they choose, they typically follow the same attention patterns as traditional screen viewers.

This means their attention will likely be drawn to movement and whichever character is talking. This has been shown to prevent audiences of virtual reality videos noticing other characters’ non-verbal responses, which are crucial to understanding the events depicted.

In the French trial, users will be able to view the scenario from the perspective of the victim, the child bystander and the perpetrator. Therefore, we would expect those in the trial to pay attention almost entirely to the perpetrator on show — he is principally the one moving, talking and yelling.

To the limited extent virtual reality can elicit any empathy – a claim that is challenged so compellingly by the research – a viewer may only feel empathy in relation to what they are looking at.

The viewer of the domestic violence project will be a violent offender, who is likely to pay greater attention to the violent character in the virtual scenario. How will this prompt empathy in relation to the other characters’ (unseen) non-verbal displays of fear?

Virtual reality for Australia

We know virtual reality companies can see a market for their domestic violence programs in Australia. It seems one of the limitations for its uptake to date has been the high cost of the headsets, although an appropriate virtual reality device is now available for under A$500.

Baca juga:
QLD police will use AI to ‘predict’ domestic violence before it happens. Beware the unintended consequences

As we argue in Virtual Realities, policy-makers should be less worried about the price tag and more cautious about the often unwarranted enthusiasm that can be generated by virtual reality.

We all want to stop domestic violence but we need to be careful not to simply buy into virtual reality as a solution because it seems new and exciting. Especially if it takes resources away from other, proven interventions.

Para penulis tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi di luar afiliasi akademis yang telah disebut di atas.

– ref. ‘Empathy machine’ or false hope? How virtual reality is being used to try to stop domestic violence – https://theconversation.com/empathy-machine-or-false-hope-how-virtual-reality-is-being-used-to-try-to-stop-domestic-violence-168862

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marta Rychert, Senior Researcher in Drug Policy, Massey University

The recent approval of two domestically produced cannabidiol (CBD) oil products – non-intoxicating cannabis compounds – may have provided new optimism to patients on cannabis prescriptions. Slow progress with product approvals had meant some patients had feared they would need to turn to the black market.

Yet these new approvals are hardly consolation for the majority of people who continue to self-medicate with illegally sourced cannabis, including via “green fairies”, personal networks, drug dealers or by growing their own.

Many of those are the very communities that advocated for the legalisation of medicinal cannabis in the first place, but which currently remain outside the tenuous legal system.

After years of anticipation and 18 months since the establishment of the Medicinal Cannabis Scheme (MCS), many who use cannabis medically are still missing out.

Affordability and continued problems with accessing prescriptions are part of the problem. So too is the lack of clinical trials to prove efficacy of cannabis in the treatment of many conditions.

But with the equity and fairness of the whole system in question, perhaps another approach is needed. Specifically, should we start thinking about medicinal cannabis in terms of an alternative therapy rather than as a pharmaceutical medicine?

Slow progress and blame

It has been four years since the government announced its “commitment to make medicinal cannabis more available”, and nearly three years since an amendment to the Misuse of Drugs Act enabled the Ministry of Health to develop regulations for the MCS.

The regime was opened for product applications in April 2020, with local industry working on certification and product development. Extensions to the “transitional period” were passed to continue sale of products imported from overseas. But this ended abruptly on October 1, leaving just four Canadian products approved under the MCS available from New Zealand pharmacies.

Domestic producers blamed the slow progress on regulatory thresholds nearly as tough as for pharmaceutical products. In response, the health minister blamed the industry for not working hard enough to meet those standards.

In the meantime, patients and prescribing doctors are left with few legal products to choose from.

Lack of clinical proof

Five percent of New Zealanders use cannabis for broadly defined medicinal uses, with pain, sleep and anxiety the leading conditions. But scientific and clinical trial evidence for the effectiveness of cannabis for these conditions remains limited.

For decades, prohibition under international drug treaties has stalled research into the potential medical properties of cannabis. But while more clinical trials are needed, the safety profile of medicinal cannabis – particularly the non-intoxicating CBD products – is good and well tolerated.

Read more:
CBD, marijuana and hemp: What is the difference among these cannabis products, and which are legal?

Nevertheless, many doctors remain understandably reluctant to recommend and prescribe cannabis-based products.

Our survey of over 3,600 medicinal cannabis users found only one in three patient requests for medicinal cannabis prescriptions were successful. Other researchers have found only a 20% success rate.

This is unlikely to change until gold-standard, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials demonstrate the efficacy of cannabis-based products for specific health conditions.

A restrictive regime

The stigma and reputational risk of discussing cannabis use with medical professionals also deter patients from requesting a prescription. Studies of medicinal cannabis users found patients conceal their cannabis use to avoid moral judgments in the provider–patient relationship.

Read more:
Cannabis products are being sold as sleep remedies – here’s the evidence about their effectiveness

Furthermore, not everyone benefits equally from the new medicinal cannabis prescription products. Our research suggests the current system favours Pākehā and those on higher incomes.

In contrast, those on lower incomes, Māori and those who grew their own cannabis to use therapeutically were least likely to engage with the MCS.

This tends to reinforce perceptions that the new prescription regime is too restrictive, bureaucratic and expensive.

Read more:
Medicinal cannabis to manage chronic pain? We don’t have evidence it works

The way forward

This is where reframing of the policy debate as one about alternative therapies could benefit both patients and the medical profession.

Much as we already do for a range of dietary supplements, the non-intoxicating cannadiol products could be easily made available without the need for prescriptions and pharmacies. This is already happening in jurisdictions in the US and EU.

By classifying medicinal cannabis as an alternative therapy there is potential for patients to be more forthcoming about their use with their GPs. Allowing patients to grow their own could also introduce more equity to the system.

Above all, this would recognise patients’ right to therapeutic self-determination and increased access, while freeing doctors from having to prescribe “medicines” that in many cases lack clinical trial evidence.

Marta Rychert receives funding from the New Zealand Marsden Fund and NZ Health Research Council.

Chris Wilkins receives funding from the New Zealand Royal Society Marsden Fund and Health Research Council of New Zealand.

Vinuli Withanarachchie works on a project funded by the NZ Health Research Council

– ref. Why it’s time to treat medicinal cannabis as an alternative therapy, not a pharmaceutical – https://theconversation.com/why-its-time-to-treat-medicinal-cannabis-as-an-alternative-therapy-not-a-pharmaceutical-169458

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ben Fenton-Smith, International Director, Arts, Education and Law, Griffith University

It is rarely appreciated that Australia makes money not just from what it digs out of the earth but also from what comes out of its mouth: English. The Australian government released a draft strategy for the English-language teaching sector in early 2020. It was put on hold due to the pandemic, but we now have an opportunity to revamp the strategy to leverage Australia’s competitive advantage as a highly multilingual nation.

Pre-COVID, Australia cruised on its reputation as a welcoming, sunny locale with reputable institutions and attractive post-study work rights. Australia had a 15% market share of the 1.3 million people who travelled to an English-speaking country specifically to study English.

Being an English-speaking nation added to our value proposition. Traditionally, it’s been hard to play in the international education market without that trump card. In 2020, four of the five countries with the most inbound students were English-speaking: the United States (1,075,496), the United Kingdom (551,493), Canada (503,270) and Australia (463,643). Fourth-placed China was the exception.

Read more:
How China has been transforming international education to become a leading host of students

Billions in revenue are at stake

Is it possible to quantify the value of teaching English? In dollar terms, yes. According to English Australia – which represents English-language providers in Australia – the global English-language teaching industry is worth over US$11.7 billion (A$16.1 billion).

The post-pandemic story is less rosy for Australia. A recent economic impact study conducted for English Australia shows the sector suffered $1.2 billion in direct losses (tuition fees and living costs) from COVID-19 in 2020. A further $1.5 billion will be lost as a result of English-language students not progressing into other parts of the education system, such as vocational and higher education.

The economic importance of international education to Australia is now well known. In the 2019-20 financial year, it was our fourth-largest export industry, adding A$37.5 billion to the national coffers and supporting 250,000 jobs.

More recently, July data showed university enrolments for international students were down 12% from a year ago. However, this pales next to the slump of 63% in the English-language intensive courses for overseas students (ELICOS) sector.

Clearly, the recovery of Australia’s international education industry is about more than universities. Even if borders open to international students in 2022, the ELICOS pipeline into vocational and higher education could take years to recover.

Read more:
Higher English entry standards for international students won’t necessarily translate to success

Time to refine the strategy

If there is a silver lining, it is this: we have a window of opportunity to rethink the value proposition of learning English in Australia. Why study it here, as opposed to anywhere else?

Before COVID struck, Australia was ahead of the curve in strategising around this question. The national education departments of all the major players produce glossy international education plans every few years. However, only Australia had taken the extra step of producing a delineated and interwoven strategy for its English-language sector.

The draft English Language Teaching International Engagement Strategy 2025 was released in the ill-fated month of February 2020. It was put on hold in light of the pandemic.

The draft strategy’s vision was for Australia to become “the global leader in the delivery of quality English language teaching”. The aim was to offer a first-class student experience, online flexibility and pathways into further education.

These remain worthy and attractive propositions. However, Australia has more to offer.

Make the most of multilingualism

The strategy undersells an element of Australia’s cultural and linguistic identity – indeed, it’s not mentioned at all. We speak here of the nation’s rich tapestry of multiculturalism and multilingualism.

Despite its image as a nation of English speakers, Australia has no official language. Although English is the most widely used, more than 300 other languages are spoken, including Indigenous languages, Auslan, Mandarin, Arabic, Cantonese and Vietnamese. According to the 2016 Census, more than 25% of Australian households use a language other than English.

Read more:
Council wants ‘English first’ policy on shop signs – what does it mean for multicultural Australia?

Many learners consider English as it is used in the UK, North America and Australasia the most desirable version of the language. However, it is not objectively better than the varieties of English used in the Philippines or India. As the use and teaching of English continue to expand beyond the traditional group of English-speaking countries, the pull factor of Australian international education may begin to wane – but only if we fail to recognise what else we have to offer the world.

Australia offers the advantage of immersing onshore international students in naturally occurring English. This is indeed a key selling point. However, Australia also has the opportunity to reimagine its framing of English for the post-pandemic global marketplace. This is a world in which multiple varieties of English are heard and used in combination with other languages.

Australia can rightly claim to be one of the most multicultural countries on Earth. Importantly, Australia is more diverse than its English-speaking competitors in the international education market. As the Australian Bureau of Statistics says:

“The Census shows that Australia has a higher proportion of overseas-born people (26%) than the United States (14%), Canada (22%) and New Zealand (23%). What about the United Kingdom, you say? Not even close (13%).”

Read more:
Don’t be afraid to pass your first language, and accent, to your kids. It could be their superpower

Australia’s multilingual backdrop can be harnessed as a core part of English learners’ experiences. Being immersed in a context where English exists dynamically alongside other languages, likely including their own first language, has practical benefits for these students.

Interacting with people who use a range of languages, and have different ways of using English, also helps learners to become more effective communicators. Exposure to people with different cultural perspectives and practices allows them to develop intercultural communication skills in a range of real-world contexts, from the classroom to the supermarket.

When the government does eventually refresh the draft strategy, Australia should not be projected as a monolingual dinosaur. Instead, the strategy should highlight our status as a fluent speaker of world English and other global languages, with a timeless Indigenous linguistic heritage. Such an environment, after all, more closely resembles the material and virtual reality for which international students need to be prepared.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Australia’s multilingual identity is an asset for selling our English-language teaching to the world – https://theconversation.com/australias-multilingual-identity-is-an-asset-for-selling-our-english-language-teaching-to-the-world-168185

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Greg Murray, Professor and Director, Centre for Mental Health, Swinburne University of Technology, Swinburne University of Technology

When I wake at 3am or so, I’m prone to picking on myself. And I know I’m not the only one who does this. A friend of mine calls 3am thoughts “barbed-wire thinking”, because you can get caught in it.

The thoughts are often distressing and punitive. Strikingly, these concerns vaporise in the daylight, proving that the 3am thinking was completely irrational and unproductive.

So, what’s going on?

I’m a psychology researcher with expertise in mood, sleep, and the circadian system (the internal clock regulating sleep). Here’s what the research says about what may be behind this common experience.

What’s happening in your body at 3am?

In a normal night’s sleep, our neurobiology reaches a turning point around 3 or 4am.

Core body temperature starts to rise, sleep drive is reducing (because we’ve had a chunk of sleep), secretion of melatonin (the sleep hormone) has peaked, and levels of cortisol (a stress hormone) are increasing as the body prepares to launch us into the day.

Remarkably, all this activity happens independent of cues from the environment such as dawn light – nature decided long ago that sunrise and sunset are so important that they must be predicted (hence the circadian system).

We actually wake up many times each night, and light sleep is more common in the second half of the night. When sleep is going well for us, we are simply unaware of these awakenings. But add a bit of stress and there is a good chance that waking will become a fully self-aware state.

Not surprisingly, there is evidence the pandemic is a sleep-disturbing stressor. So if you’re experiencing 3am wakings at the moment, you’re definitely not alone.

Read more:
Did we used to have two sleeps rather than one? Should we again?

Stress also impacts sleep in insomnia, where people become hypervigilant about being awake.

Concerns about being awake when one “should” be asleep can cause the person to jolt themselves into anxious wakefulness whenever they go through a light sleep phase.

If that sounds like you, be aware that insomnia responds well to psychological treatment with cognitive behavioural therapy. There’s also a strong link between sleep and depression, so it’s important to speak to your doctor if you have any concerns about your sleep.

Catastrophising in the wee hours

As a cognitive therapist, I sometimes joke the only thing good about 3am waking is that it gives us all a vivid example of catastrophising.

Around this time in the sleep cycle, we’re at our lowest ebb physically and cognitively. From nature’s viewpoint, this is meant to be a time of physical and emotional recovery, so it’s understandable that our internal resources are low.

But we also lack other resources in the middle of the night – social connections, cultural assets, all the coping skills of an adult are unavailable at this time. With none of our human skills and capital, we are left alone in the dark with our thoughts. So the mind is partly right when it concludes the problems it’s generated are unsolvable – at 3am, most problems literally would be.

Once the sun’s up, we’re listening to the radio, chewing our Vegemite toast and pushing the cat off the bench, and our 3am problems are put in perspective. We can’t believe the solution of just ringing this person, postponing that thing, or checking such-and-such was overlooked in the wee hours.

The truth is, our mind isn’t really looking for a solution at 3am. We might think we are problem solving by mentally working over issues at this hour, but this isn’t really problem solving; it’s problem solving’s evil twin – worry.

Worry is identifying a problem, ruminating about the worst possible outcome and neglecting the resources we would bring to bear should the non-preferred outcome actually occur.

Read more:
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So, what can we do about it?

Have you noticed the 3am thoughts are very self-focused? In the quiet dark, it’s easy to slide unknowingly into a state of extreme egocentricity. Circling round the concept “I”, we can generate painful backwards-looking feelings like guilt or regret. Or turn our tired thoughts to the always uncertain future, generating baseless fears.

Buddhism has a strong position on this type of mental activity: the self is a fiction, and that fiction is the source of all distress. Many of us now practice Buddhist-informed mindfulness to manage stress in the daytime; I use mindfulness to deal with 3am wakings.

I bring my attention to my senses, specifically the sound of my breath. When I notice thoughts arising, I gently bring my attention back to the sound of breathing (pro tip: earplugs help you hear the breath and get out of your head).

Sometimes this meditation works. Sometimes it doesn’t. If I’m still caught in negative thinking after 15 or 20 minutes, I follow the advice from cognitive behavioural therapy, and get up, turn on dim light and read.

This action may seem mundane, but at 3am it is powerfully compassionate, and can help draw you out of your unproductive thinking.

One last tip: It’s important to convince yourself (during daylight hours) that you want to avoid catastrophic thinking. For good reasons not to worry, you can’t go past the Stoic philosophers.

Waking and worrying at 3am is very understandable and very human. But in my opinion, not a great habit to get into.

Read more:
When life gives you lemons … 4 Stoic tips for getting through lockdown from Epictetus

If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone
you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.

Greg Murray does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why do we wake around 3am and dwell on our fears and shortcomings? – https://theconversation.com/why-do-we-wake-around-3am-and-dwell-on-our-fears-and-shortcomings-169635

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Bean, Research Fellow, The University of Queensland

What secret alchemical knowledge could be so important it required sophisticated encryption?

The setting was Amsterdam, 2019. A conference organised by the Society for the History of Alchemy and Chemistry had just concluded at the Embassy of the Free Mind, in a lecture hall opened by historical-fiction author Dan Brown.

At the conference, Science History Institute Postdoctoral Researcher Megan Piorko presented a curious manuscript belonging to English alchemists John Dee (1527–1608) and his son Arthur Dee (1579–1651). In the pre-modern world, alchemy was a means to understand nature through ancient secret knowledge and chemical experiment.

Within Dee’s alchemical manuscript was a cipher table, followed by encrypted ciphertext under the heading “Hermeticae Philosophiae medulla” — or Marrow of the Hermetic Philosophy. The table would end up being a valuable tool in decrypting the cipher, but could only be interpreted correctly once the hidden “key” was found.

It was during post-conference drinks in a dimly lit bar that Megan decided to investigate the mysterious alchemical cipher — with the help of her colleague, University of Graz Postdoctoral Researcher Sarah Lang.

A recipe for the elixir of life

Megan and Sarah shared their initial analysis on a history of chemistry blog and presented the historical discovery to cryptology experts from around the world at the 2021 HistoCrypt conference.

Based on the rest of the notebook’s contents, they believed the ciphertext contained a recipe for the fabled Philosophers’ Stone — an elixir that supposedly prolongs the owner’s life and grants the ability to produce gold from base metals.

The mysterious cipher received much interest, and Sarah and Megan were soon inundated with emails from would-be code-breakers. That’s when Richard Bean entered the picture. Less than a week after the HistoCrypt proceedings went live, Richard contacted Lang and Piorko with exciting news: he’d cracked the code.

Megan and Sarah’s initial hypothesis was confirmed; the encrypted ciphertext was indeed an alchemical recipe for the Philosophers’ Stone. Together, the trio began to translate and analyse the 177-word passage.

Read more:
Why the ancient promise of alchemy is fulfilled in reading

The alchemist behind the cipher

But who wrote this alchemical cipher in the first place, and why encrypt it?

Alchemical knowledge was shrouded in secrecy, as practitioners believed it could only be understood by true adepts.

Encrypting the most valuable trade secret, the Philosophers’ Stone, would have provided an added layer of protection against alchemical fraud and the unenlightened. Alchemists spent their lives searching for this vital substance, with many believing they had the key to successfully unlocking the secret recipe.

Arthur Dee was an English alchemist and spent most of his career as royal physician to Tsar Michael I of Russia. He continued to add to the alchemical manuscript after his father’s death — and the cipher appears to be in Arthur’s handwriting.

We don’t know the exact date John Dee, Arthur’s father, started writing in this manuscript, or when Arthur added the cipher table and encrypted text he titled “The Marrow of Hermetic Philosophy”.

However, we do know Arthur wrote another manuscript in 1634 titled Arca Arcanorum — or Secret of Secrets — where he celebrates his alchemical success with the Philosophers’ Stone, claiming he discovered the true recipe.

He decorated Arca Arcanorum with an emblem copied from a medieval alchemical scroll, illustrating the allegorical process of alchemical transmutation necessary for the Philosophers’ Stone.

Cracking the code

What clues led to decrypting the mysterious Marrow of the Hermetic Philosophy passage?

Adjacent to the encrypted text is a table resembling one used in a traditional style of cipher called a Bellaso/Della Porta cipher — invented in 1553 by Italian cryptologist Giovan Battista Bellaso, and written about in 1563 by Giambattista della Porta. This was the first clue.

The Latin title indicated the text itself was also in Latin. This was corroborated by the lack of letters V and J in the cipher table, as V and J are interchangeable with U and I, respectively, in printed Latin text.

This was good news, as Richard had access to Latin statistical models from previous decryption projects. Armed with this information, he set off in search of patterns that would lead him to the cipher “key” — a word or phrase that could be used in conjunction with the cipher table to decipher the text.

Richard soon realised the key was included at the end of the text, which is unusual. It was surprisingly long too, made up of 45 letters — arduous even for today’s computer-password standards. The trio would later realise the key was also written elsewhere in the manuscript, hidden in plain sight.

In keeping with the typical encryption practices of the period, Arthur Dee had written the key on the back of the cipher table. It read: sic alter iason aurea felici portabis uellera colcho, meaning “like a new Jason you will carry the Golden Fleece away from the lucky Colchian”.

An ancient myth

This key is adapted from the last verses of an alchemical poem by Giovanni Aurelio Augurello titled Chrysopoeia (circa 1505), with “chrysopoeia” also being the ancient Greek word for the art of gold-making.

The poem is about the ancient Greek myth of Jason and the Argonauts, which was reinterpreted during the early modern period as an allegory for alchemy. In the myth of Jason and the Argonauts, the Argonauts sail to the land of Colchis (in modern-day Georgia) to retrieve the “Golden Fleece”. In an alchemical context, the fleece is a symbol for the Philosophers’ Stone.

The actual text of the Marrow of the Hermetic Philosophy mentions taking an alchemical “egg” — not further described — from an athanor, which is a type of furnace used for gentle heating over a long period of time.

Afterwards, instructions are given for how long to wait until the different alchemical phases ensue (the blackening, whitening and the red phase). It says the end product — either a silver tincture or the gold-making elixir — will depend on when the process is stopped.

If the directions are followed correctly, the code-cracking reader is promised:

… then you will have a truly gold-making elixir by whose benevolence all the misery of poverty is put to flight and those who suffer from any illness will be restored to health.

Contrary to what was believed for a long time, alchemical recipes do contain chemical processes which can be reproduced in modern laboratories. It’s only towards the end (during the production of the Philosophers’ Stone) that the recipe becomes too vague to reproduce — at least not without further interpretation.

However, they do sometimes produce a blood-red glass (which is what the stone was said to look like).

Journey to the centre of the archive

What can we learn from historical ciphers? Cryptology experts have just scratched the surface of early-modern encryption practices. Much secret alchemical knowledge remains uncovered from a time when making gold and extending the natural limit of life was believed possible through alchemy.

The decryption of this 400-year-old cipher suggests we have much ground to dig through yet. Who knows what other alchemical ciphers are waiting to be discovered in the depths of the archive?

Read more:
Declassified Cold War code-breaking manual has lessons for solving ‘impossible’ puzzles

Megan Piorko receives funding from the Science History Institute.

Sarah Lang receives funding from the Science History Institute and the University of Graz.

Richard Bean does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Deciphering the Philosophers’ Stone: how we cracked a 400-year-old alchemical cipher – https://theconversation.com/deciphering-the-philosophers-stone-how-we-cracked-a-400-year-old-alchemical-cipher-167900

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sacha Reid, Associate Professor, Griffith University

Buying property is the largest personal investment decision most Australians will ever make. With pricing for standalone houses rising dramatically in many capital cities, more people are looking to buy apartments.

Buying an off the plan apartment can be one way to enter the property market.

Buying off the plan means consumers commit to buying a property, at today’s prices, before it’s built. Settlement happens once construction is finished.

This approach comes with risks and challenges — but following six key steps can help consumers protect themselves.

Three key challenges

If you’re an off the plan apartment buyer, you face three key challenges.

First, consumers are subject to quite biased and complex sales contracts that favour developers. This puts purchasers into an unequal bargaining position.

Secondly, many consumers are unaware of the property rights and obligations that arise from purchasing a strata title property.

Strata titling enables individual ownership of a lot (such as apartment) as well as shared ownership of the common property (such as the lobby, garages, driveways and gardens).

Lot owners are legislatively required to be involved in cooperatively managing and maintaining their apartment complexes with their fellow lot owners.

Thirdly, some consumers have ended-up receiving a poor-quality product with building defects.

Our research reveals there’s room for improvement

We recently completed a research project examining the importance of information disclosure requirements of off the plan apartment sales contracts. We:

• reviewed information disclosure requirements in a number of industries, to get a sense of what’s standard, and compared that with information disclosure requirements involved in off the plan purchases.

• conducted in-depth interviews with 31 industry practitioners and stakeholders from around Australia, including lawyers, property developers, real-estate agents, policy managers, consumer policy advocates and off the plan apartment buyers.

• did an online survey of 512 off the plan residential apartment buyers.

We found opportunities to improve the system, and outlined recommendations for key stakeholders:

Read more:
To restore public confidence in apartments, rewrite Australia’s building codes

We found most off the plan apartment buyers in Australia are typically “mum and dad” investors, but a growing proportion are owner occupiers.

Off the plan buyers tend to be mid to high income earners, well educated, working in professional or managerial roles, and between the ages of 20 and 44.

About 46% of off the plan buyers are Australian couples with dependent children. Nearly 69% of buyers were born in Australia. This contradicts a widely held perception that most off the plan apartment buyers are overseas investors.

Systemic change is needed

Our findings indicate there is limited consumer protection through regulations when buying off the plan apartments. Consumers need to educate themselves, effectively engage in the purchasing process and make sure they’re making informed decisions.

However, no amount of disclosure will cure problems built into the system such as a lack of accountability, the discretion on developers and poor quality products.

Specifically, consumers need to be protected from features within these contracts that are inherently harmful. These include the ability for the developer to cancel the contract, change the plan or floor structure, or include financial clauses that make it hard for a buyer to get their deposit back.

The purchaser may not have the financial literacy skills needed to understand the true cost of the fees associated with the property, relying on the developer to disclose this.

Policy change is needed to better protect buyers and put the onus on developers to make contract features such as these much clearer.

There is a glaring lack of government oversight of property contracts and the housing sector more broadly.

In other sectors, such as purchasers contracting for consumer goods (such as mobile telephones, whitegoods, insurance) there are distinct and clear roles for government oversight, accountability and consumer protection for non-compliance.

For example if you buy a fridge and it turns out to be faulty, the seller has to replace it or refund your money. But there’s no such legal protection in many off the plan contracts. Instead, the onus is on buyers to take the developer to court.

And many buyers may not be keen to terminate an off the plan sales contracts because they have already invested emotionally in the lifestyle “dream” of living in a complex with features such as a pool, a gym, and so on (without fully understanding what strata fees usually come with them).

Six steps to protect yourself

There are six critical steps purchasers must follow to protect themselves in buying their homes off the plan:

1) Evaluate the credibility of the builder. Google everything you can about them, and what’s been reported. What else they have built? Have their other buildings been around long enough for defects to show up? Are previous buyers happy? Can you search the developer’s building license number to see if any complaints have been lodged with regulators?

2) Anticipate market dynamics such as general economic conditions that might impact apartment prices. If the local market drops or becomes flooded with apartments, you could be left with a property worth less than you paid for it.

3) Get legal advice on contract documents — and make sure your lawyer knows what to check and examines the contract really closely.

4) Understand the rights and obligations associated with community living. All those extra features, like pools, usually come with extra fees.

5) Consider an independent building inspection. If issues are identified at that point, notify the developer immediately. Some defects may be fixable but others might not become apparent for years to come.

6) Know where to seek assistance. Usually that will be via the fair trading department in your state, so make sure you know how to contact them.

Read more:
Dealing with apartment defects: a how-to guide for strata owners and buyers

Sacha Reid receives funding from the Consumer Policy and Research Centre.

Melissa Pocock receives funding from Consumer Policy and Research Centre.

Savindi Caldera and Therese Wilson do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Considering buying property off the plan? Here are 6 crucial steps to protect yourself – https://theconversation.com/considering-buying-property-off-the-plan-here-are-6-crucial-steps-to-protect-yourself-168856

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Wise, Senior Lecturer, Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Auckland

Some women are holding off on being vaccinated against COVID-19 because of concerns the jab could affect their fertility, at times taking to social media to voice their concerns.

Anti-vaccination campaigners appear to be fuelling these fears and misleading women into thinking the vaccine may affect their chance of getting pregnant now or in future, or increase their risk of a miscarriage.

But there is no research evidence to support these claims. The science shows COVID vaccines have no effect on fertility, do not impact the chance of a miscarriage, and are safe and effective while pregnant.

À lire aussi :
Should pregnant women have a COVID vaccine? The evidence says it’s safe and effective

COVID-19, however, can cause severe disease in pregnant women. Currently one in six of the most critically ill COVID patients in the UK are unvaccinated pregnant women.

Where did the fertility myth come from?

Myths about the vaccine affecting fertility can be tracked back to websites in the United States, which highlighted a claim by a European doctor in December 2020, while the vaccine was in Phase 3 trials.

In a blog post which has since been deleted, he hypothesised there were proteins in the placenta which have similarities with the spike protein in the virus. He thought antibodies in the vaccines that block the spike protein might also attach to the placenta.

But the viral and placental proteins are not similar enough that we would expect this to happen; studies have now confirmed this.

À lire aussi :
Pregnant or worried about infertility? Get vaccinated against COVID-19

What else does the science say?

Since the vaccine rollout began, six billion doses of COVID vaccines have been administered around the world, including Pfizer and Moderna, the recommended vaccines in Australia for under-60s, including pregnant women. Pfizer is the only vaccine offered in New Zealand.

There has not been a concurrent epidemic of infertility nor miscarriage.

Several populations of women have been followed up after vaccination. Women who have received COVID vaccinations have no difference in markers of ovarian follicle (egg) quality compared to unvaccinated women.

Studies have demonstrated no difference in embryo implantation rate for women who had received vaccination against COVID prior to having in vitro fertilisation (IVF) compared to unvaccinated women.

Studies have also looked for an effect of the vaccine on male fertility. These have demonstrated no change in sperm volume, concentration, motility (the ability to swim the right way) and total motile sperm count when comparing samples taken before and after COVID vaccination.

À lire aussi :
COVID-19 could cause male infertility and sexual dysfunction – but vaccines do not

What about in pregnancy?

Studies have also looked specifically at miscarriage. If antibodies against the spike did cause problems for the placenta, we would expect to see miscarriages. This is not the case.

The science is also clear the vaccine is safe in pregnancy. In studies of pregnant women in Canada and the United States who received the vaccine, minor side effects were similar to non-pregnant adults, and pregnancy complications and baby outcomes were similar to the background rate.

Research has shown there’s additional benefit of vaccination in pregnancy, with the baby gaining some protection against COVID. Antibodies have been found in cord blood and in breastmilk, suggesting temporary protection for babies (called passive immunity).

Getting vaccinated at any stage of pregnancy will provide this additional benefit.

What about future fertility?

The COVID vaccine – like every other vaccine you received during childhood, and like the flu vaccine that you get every flu season – induces your body to create an immune response. The components of the vaccine itself are broken down by the body within hours.

In other words, COVID vaccines don’t stay in your body. After vaccination, you are left with antibodies ready to act in case you get exposed to the COVID virus in the future. There is no link with infertility or miscarriage.

À lire aussi :
No, COVID vaccines don’t stay in your body for years

Women who are pregnant, planning a pregnancy or are concerned about their future fertility might still have concerns or questions about getting a COVID vaccination. If this is you, talk to your own doctor or midwife who can discuss the science with you and answer any questions in a non-judgemental way.

Dr Erena Browne, Registrar in O&G at Auckland District Health Board, co-authored this article.

Michelle Wise ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. No, COVID-19 vaccines don’t affect women’s fertility – https://theconversation.com/no-covid-19-vaccines-dont-affect-womens-fertility-168568

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ziteng Wang, PhD researcher, University of Sydney

In early 2020, we detected an unusual radio signal coming from somewhere near the centre of our galaxy. The signal blinked on and off, growing 100 times brighter and dimmer over time.

What’s more, the radio waves in the signal had an uncommon “circular polarisation”, which means the electric field in the radio waves spirals around as the waves travel through space.

We first spotted the signal using the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder Telescope (ASKAP), then followed up with other telescopes around the world and in space. Despite our best efforts, we are still unable to work out exactly what produced these mysterious radio waves.

A strange signal from the heart of the Milky Way

We have been surveying the sky with ASKAP throughout 2020 and 2021 in search of unusual new objects, in a project called the Variables and Slow Transients (VAST) survey.

Most things astronomers see in outer space are fairly stable and don’t change much on human time scales. That’s why objects that do change (known as variables) or appear and disappear (known as transients) are so interesting.

Transients are usually connected with some of the most energetic and violent events in the Universe, such as the death of massive stars. The past decade has seen thousands of transients discovered at optical and X-ray wavelengths, but radio wavelengths are largely untapped.

When we looked towards the centre of our galaxy (the Milky Way), we found a source we called ASKAP J173608.2-321635 (this catchy name comes from its coordinates in the sky). This object was unique in that it started out invisible, became bright, faded away, and then reappeared. This behaviour was extraordinary.

As well as changing over time, the signal was circularly polarised. Our eyes cannot distinguish between polarised and unpolarised light, but ASKAP has the equivalent of polaroid sunglasses for radio waves.

Polarised radio sources are extremely rare: we might find fewer than ten circularly polarised sources out of thousands. Almost all of them are sources we understand well, such as pulsars (the rapidly rotating, highly magnetised remnants of exploded stars) or highly magnetised red dwarf stars.

Finding more evidence

Investigating a new astronomical object is a bit like a detective job. We need evidence to determine what it is.

Based on our ASKAP data, we thought the new object might be a pulsar or a flaring star: both types of object can be polarised, and change in brightness. However, we needed to find more clues.

We next observed the source with the Parkes radio telescope in New South Wales to decide whether it was a pulsar. However, these observations yielded nothing.

We then tried the more sensitive MeerKAT radio telescope in South Africa. Because the signal was intermittent, we observed it for 15 minutes every few weeks, hoping we would see it again. Luckily, the signal returned, but the behaviour of the source was now dramatically different. The source disappeared in the course of a single day, even though it had lasted for weeks in our previous ASKAP observations.

It is always a good idea to investigate from multiple perspectives. Telescopes working at other wavelengths can serve as another pair of eyes to help us find new clues.

After the MeerKAT detection, we searched for the source in X-rays (using the space-based Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory and Chandra X-ray Observatory) and infrared (using the Gemini telescope in Chile). However, we saw nothing.

Still a mystery

We have observed this strange object at multiple wavelengths using telescopes on three continents and in space. What can we say about what it actually is?

Can it be a star? It seems unlikely because stars also emit much of their light in the optical and infrared (like the Sun), but we detect nothing at these wavelengths.

Can it be a pulsar? Like our signal, pulsars produce polarised radio waves and can vary dramatically in brightness. But the characteristic of pulsars is rapid pulses betweem milliseconds to seconds long, and we did not detect these with Parkes or MeerKAT.

Read more:
Fifty years ago Jocelyn Bell discovered pulsars and changed our view of the universe

Is the source’s proximity to the centre of our galaxy a clue? Over the past 15 years, a number of intriguing radio sources have been discovered toward the Galactic centre (including one dubbed the “cosmic burper”). We don’t know what they are, but they are imaginatively called Galactic Center Radio Transients (GCRTs).

Are they related to ASKAP J173608.2-321635? There are some similarities, but there are also differences. And even the known GCRTs exhibit diversity, and may not share a common origin. So our signal is still a mystery.

We will keep observing this source in new ways. It is just the first of many unusual transient sources that we expect to find with the powerful ASKAP array, and it gives a hint of the future of radio astronomy.

Read more:
‘WTF?’: newly discovered ghostly circles in the sky can’t be explained by current theories, and astronomers are excited

Ziteng Wang received support from University of Sydney International Scholarship, and as a Graduate Student with CSIRO Space and Astronomy.

David Kaplan receives funding from the National Science Foundation.

Tara Murphy works for The University of Sydney. She receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. We found a mysterious flashing radio signal from near the centre of the galaxy – https://theconversation.com/we-found-a-mysterious-flashing-radio-signal-from-near-the-centre-of-the-galaxy-167802

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tony Walker, Vice-chancellor’s fellow, La Trobe University

In the midst of a pandemic that has wrenched the world off its axis, Lebanon’s precipitous decline has not received the attention it deserves given the country’s strategic importance.

Bordering Syria to its north and east, and Israel to its south, Lebanon occupies a critical space in the Eastern Mediterranean. Its collapse would risk spilling over into surrounding areas.

The country is sagging under the weight of a vast refugee population from neighbouring Syria and a permanent Palestinian refugee presence. It certainly qualifies as a “crisis state”, which the London School of Economics defines as one in “acute stress”.

The question is whether the “crisis state” becomes, to all intents and purposes, a “failed state” under the LSE definition of one that “can no longer perform its basic security and development functions”.

Lebanon, which has taken more than a year to form a new government after an ammonium nitrate explosion ripped through its port area and forced the resignation of the government of the day, is again teetering on the brink.

Fuel shortages, which this week shut down its main power stations, have drawn the world’s attention to Lebanon’s continuing slide towards outright ruin.

The emergence last month of a new prime minister after months of wrangling over power sharing among the country’s confessional groups hardly engendered confidence in the new government’s ability to get on top of Lebanon’s problems.

Fuel shortages caused by a foreign exchange crisis in which the country is effectively bankrupt is merely one of a series of cascading problems that has prompted the World Bank to describe the situation as one the world’s top-10 “most severe crises since the mid-nineteenth century”.

The World Bank speculates that Lebanon’s crisis may well rank in the “top 3”. This includes the Great Depression of the 1930s.

In a report issued in June by its Beirut office before the formation of the new government, the bank said Lebanon faced

[…] colossal challenges [that] threaten already dire socio-economic conditions and a fragile social peace with no clear turning point on the horizon.

The installation of Najib Mikati, a billionaire telecommunications tycoon, as prime minister has coincided with a further step down in Lebanon’s fortunes to the point where its ability to arrest its slide now depends on outside help. But that’s the problem.

Potential international donors, led by France with its traditional ties to the country, are fed up with Lebanon’s inability to get its house in order and its endemic corruption, and fear external assistance will merely strengthen the radical Shi’ite Hezbollah’s grip on the country.

With Iran’s backing, Hezbollah has been portraying itself as Lebanon’s saviour. Iranian-supplied fuel has been shipped into Lebanon by truck from the Syrian port of Baniyas to circumvent US-imposed sanctions.

Since its emergence at the height of Lebanon’s civil war, which lasted from 1975-1990, Hezbollah has gradually strengthened its position as the dominant player in the country’s complex political make-up.

Read more:
Beirut explosion yet another heartbreak for a country already on the brink

This divides power between Christian and Muslim confessional groups under a power-sharing arrangement brokered by France in 1943. A Saudi-mediated deal, known as the Ta’if agreement to end the civil war, acknowledged Hezbollah’s role.

Hezbollah is designated as a terrorist organisation by the United States and other countries.

In the three decades since Ta’if, Lebanon has got itself back on its feet under various administrations only to slide back again, and now disastrously.

The reasonable question in all of this, given its intense internal problems overlaid by a governance structure that is clearly outmoded, is whether Lebanon is ungovernable in its present form and risks breaking apart.

In an assessment of Lebanon’s status as a potential failed state the Council on Foreign Relations nominated the following criteria. These included the 75% (at least) of Lebanese living below the poverty line, the 1.7 million refugees whose plight is even worse than that of Lebanese nationals, the duration of power blackouts of 22 hours a day, and public debt of 175% of GDP.

Since that assessment in September last year the situation has got much worse, if that’s possible. The Lebanese pound is virtually valueless, having lost 90% of its value against the dollar in the past several years. The country is beset by hyperinflation with price rises of more than 400% putting basic foodstuffs beyond the reach of many. Lebanon’s economy contracted by more than 20% in 2020.

One-third of Lebanese are living in “extreme poverty”, according to the United Nations.

Not least of Lebanon’s problems is its huge refugee burden. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reports the country has 865,530 registered Syrian refugees among an estimated 1.5 Syrians in Lebanon.

On top of the Syrian presence, there are some 190,000 Palestinians in Lebanon, many in refugee camps. The Palestinians are effectively stateless and even more vulnerable to a deteriorating economy than the impoverished Lebanese.

Lebanon’s population, including refugees, stands at around 6.8 million.

Compounding Lebanon’s problems is an acute foreign exchange crisis. It is to all intents and purposes broke, and therefore unable to continue to subsidise imports of vital commodities, including food and medicine.

This has pushed prices through the roof.

Embattled Mikati put it bluntly after his swearing in.

Where are we going to get dollars to subsidise? We are dry. We don’t have any reserves or money that allows us to help.

Meanwhile, billions of dollars have flowed out of the country as wealthy Lebanese and corrupt officials have sought to shelter their assets given the collapse of the country ‘s banking system.

Banks have become insolvent. Thousands of Lebanese have lost their life savings. In the midst of this, they would have reason to be dismayed by revelations in the leaked Pandora Papers that prominent figures in government and the bureaucracy had been siphoning funds out of the country for years.

Read more:
Pandora papers: as ordinary Lebanese suffer, elite secretly drain off billions

Among those identified as having shifted funds abroad is Riad Salameh, Lebanon’s long-standing central bank governor. He is the sole director of a British Virgin Islands company established in 2007.

Salameh is under investigation in Switzerland and France for potential money laundering and embezzlement. He has been accused in local Lebanese media of shifting funds abroad in violation of regulations. He denies having made any such transfers.

However, what is not in doubt is that Lebanon is one of the world’s most corrupt jurisdictions. This is contributing to its inability to put its house in order.

In the global Corruption Perception Index, recognised as the most credible assessment of global corrupt practices, Lebanon rates 137 on a list of 180 countries along with Russia, Papua New Guinea and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

On the Fragile States Index compiled by the Fund for Peace in collaboration with Foreign Policy magazine, Lebanon ranked 34 in 2020, down from 40 in 2019. Given its accelerating decline over the past 12 months, its 2021 rating may well rival that of failing states like Yemen, Somalia and Syria.

If Lebanon is not a failed state now it is certainly one in the making. This is barring a substantial intervention by reluctant international lending institutions and western governments concerned about its further slide towards an Iran-led “axis of resistance”.

Tony Walker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Lebanon’s crisis has gone from bad to worse. But is anyone listening? – https://theconversation.com/lebanons-crisis-has-gone-from-bad-to-worse-but-is-anyone-listening-169645

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Geoff Cockfield, Honorary Professor in Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development, University of Southern Queensland

Prime Minister Scott Morrison appears to be moving towards securing Coalition agreement for a net-zero emissions by 2050. It comes weeks out from the crucial COP26 climate talks in Glasgow, where Australia’s record on global climate action will be heavily scrutinised.

Horse-trading between the Liberals and Nationals is under way, and the government is reportedly set to reveal its climate targets and technology roadmap early next week.

But first, Morrison must secure majority support from the National Party. A few vocal Nationals figures, including Matt Canavan, Keith Pitt and George Christensen, have sought to block or moderate a net-zero commitment.

Some of their concerns are valid – regional Australia will shoulder a big burden in the transition to a low-emissions economy. But the tides of international and domestic affairs are turning. Most government MPs have accepted the inevitable, and the issue will not break the bonds of an enduring Coalition.

Net-zero and the Nationals

The Nationals do have legitimate economic and political reasons for being concerned about a net-zero target.

First, a move away from coal and gas would lead to job losses in regional areas. And the federal government’s policy playbook to support rural and remote areas is extremely thin, relying heavily on spillover economic benefits from agricultural development and mining.

This means the Nationals, as the self-proclaimed regional party, have few economic levers to pull. Retaining mining investment is both politically and, at regional and local scales, economically important.

Second, policy mechanisms such as a price on carbon or caps on greenhouse gas emissions could add to costs for people living in regions, and to agricultural industries such as beef production, where reducing emissions will not be straightforward or cheap.

Third, the Nationals’ opposition is somewhat in line with the party’s ideology and electoral positioning. It has historically pitched itself as a defender of national economic interests and “traditional” industries such as farming and mining.

At the same time, the party has long opposed, on economic and social grounds, post-materialist influences such as deep Green environmentalism.

Finally, the Nationals, along with the Liberals, have successfully used climate change policies to wedge the Labor Party and paint it as part of a supposed Labor-Green axis. This tactic worked well in central Queensland in the last federal election.

So for some Nats, conceding to net-zero might be seen as an ideological capitulation and yet more evidence of their ineffective efforts to stand up for the bush.

Read more:
The Nationals signing up to net-zero should be a no-brainer. Instead, they’re holding Australia to ransom

Net-zero gathers (renewable) steam

The problem for the Nationals resistance movement, however, is that it’s becoming increasingly isolated.

Both the Biden administration in Washington and the United Kingdom government are pressuring Australia to commit to the 2050 net-zero target.

And several jurisdictions, such as the European Union, are considering or planning carbon tariffs on imports from nations without strong climate policies.

In the context of recent shifts in the international policy landscape, railing against such tariffs looks anachronistic.

As National Farmers’ Federation (NFF) chief executive Tony Mahar said earlier this year, “as an industry dependent on exporting, Australian agriculture must be ready to adjust to a more carbon-conscious trading future”.

Domestically, state governments, including those with Coalition incumbents, have shifted to net-zero-type targets. So too have important lobby groups, such as the NFF and the Business Council of Australia.

Meanwhile, moderates in the federal Liberal Party are gearing up to argue for a net-zero plan and against large compensation for particular industries.

All this leaves the Nationals’ resistance movement rather short of influential allies.

Opponents could, of course, roll out the implied threat of breaking the Coalition. But moderate Nationals have hosed down suggestions a net-zero target is a make-or-break issue for the Coalition partners. And historically, Coalition breaks – especially in government – are extremely rare.

Read more:
5 reasons why the Morrison government needs a net-zero target, not just a flimsy plan

Sealing the deal

Nonetheless, even Nationals in favour of a net-zero target want assurances for the regions and agricultural industries.

An obvious and relatively easy policy response is to ensure new renewable energy projects in the regions deliver local economic benefits, such as through favourable purchasing and employment strategies or even dividend sharing.

Second is to ensure these and other projects continue to drive down electricity costs. This is especially important for energy-intensive agricultural production such as irrigated crop and pasture production. Where possible, regional landholders could receive income from local energy ventures as hosts of, or even partners in, projects.

Third, funding for land-based carbon storage could be expanded.

Australian landholders have made a huge contribution to national emissions offsets over decades, largely through vegetation management which draws carbon from the atmosphere and stores it in plants and soil. Such management has largely been the result of state government regulation preventing land clearing and farmers have historically received little direct benefit in return.

The federal government is now contributing funding for landholders who create land-based carbon sinks under the Emissions Reduction Fund. But the resulting projects have caused local concerns and the carbon storage outcomes are uncertain.

So expanding such schemes will not be easy. It must be done in a way that meets integrity standards, and without alienating local people.

The Morrison government is understandably averse to direct carbon pricing, given the toxic climate politics of the last decade. It’s instead focused on low-emissions technological solutions.

This might lead to new low-emisisons technologies for the regions, such as conversion to renewable energy and innovative transport systems. But there’s no timeline yet for when such technology will materialise.

The Nationals are right to demand detail in the climate policy deal. But the net-zero bandwagon cannot be stopped – at best, the Nationals must settle for perhaps quite modest compensation for their constituents.

Read more:
Australia could ‘green’ its degraded landscapes for just 6% of what we spend on defence

Geoff Cockfield does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The net-zero bandwagon is gathering steam, and resistant MPs are about to be run over – https://theconversation.com/the-net-zero-bandwagon-is-gathering-steam-and-resistant-mps-are-about-to-be-run-over-169632

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Scott Imig, Associate professor, Educational Leadership and Management, University of Newcastle

As the United States withdrawal from Afghanistan culminated in tragic scenes at Kabul airport in recent months, Australians saw a glimpse of the lives of people trying to escape dangerous situations to find safety for their families.

Many Afghans were brought to Australia, some having to tragically leave behind families.

Australia is anticipated to issue about 3,000 humanitarian visas to Afghan refugees this year. That number could grow to 20,000 in the next few years. About half of the refugee population resettled to Australia are children.

Overall, there are more than 11,000 students from refugee backgrounds attending government schools in New South Wales and about 1,800 new refugee students enter the state school system each year.

Principals and teachers are among Australia’s most important front-line workers. Over the past two years, they have helped communities deal with fires, floods and COVID-19 lockdowns.

Read more:
A familiar place among the chaos: how schools can help students cope after the bushfires

In our recently published book Creating Spaces of Wellbeing and Belonging for Refugee and Asylum-Seeker Students we provide strategies for school leaders to help care for young people dealing with trauma and forced migration, and to help them integrate into their new communities.

Why refugee students need help

Around the world more than 80 million people are listed as displaced from their homes – more than 26 million of those are classified as refugees. The refugees are primarily from Syria, Venezuela, Afghanistan, South Sudan, Somalia and Myanmar.

Half the refugees are under 18 years of age.

Since 1945, Australia has resettled about 945,000 refugees who were displaced from their home countries. The current government policy is to relocate 13,750 people a year from mostly war-torn countries to Australia.

New refugees come to Australia mainly from:

• Iraq

• Democratic Republic of Congo

• Myanmar

• Syria

• Afghanistan.

Many Australian teachers and school leaders report feeling unprepared to serve refugee students.
Our research suggests school principals and staff are vital to the successful integration of refugee children into society.

Refugee students often have limited English. Some have little or no formal prior schooling experiences. Some may be well behind their peers academically and much of the curriculum may appear completely foreign which can lead to more insecurity.

Read more:
We studied Afghan refugees for 3 years to find out what life is like for them in Australia

Many students come from families with few resources. Their parents are also dealing with the mental health issues associated with forced migration and tremendous loss.

There are significant differences between these students’ experiences and that of their hosts. The principal of one Australian school whom we interviewed told us how some newly arrived students refused to play at recess because in their home country, kidnappers, “think parents are rich if the children can afford to play”.

Another principal told of girls who refused to swim in the same pool with boys and mothers who didn’t feel comfortable attending parent-teacher meetings with other men.

Our participants offered insights for addressing these challenges and creating welcoming schools for children with refugee backgrounds. We’ve grouped these into three main themes.

1. Welcoming new arrivals

At the first contact with refugee and asylum-seeker families, the entire school staff must be available, friendly and committed to the process of integrating these families. School materials need to be in the appropriate language and interpreters must be present.

Schools should provide families with many of their needs at the initial meeting. This can include culturally appropriate uniforms and supplies (such as stationery) so students can feel a sense of belonging.

A primary principal in England told us how she developed a buddy system in which newly arrived children were paired with same-age peers, proficient in English, who also shared similar language backgrounds.

An Australian principal created a weekly coffee club for newly arrived parents that he staffs with interpreters. He said:

At those coffee clubs they discuss different topics: they looked at how to buy furniture, how to make a healthy meal on a budget, where do you have to go if you have to see a doctor. Because they don’t have access to those things.

A high school principal in New Zealand provided all families who volunteered to cook for a cultural evening with funds for the ingredients they needed to make their dishes. This gave an ideal opportunity for newcomers to share food from their home countries with the broader school community.

For each of these principals, community building is a purposeful, consistent and time-intensive endeavour.

2. Help staff to understand trauma

Children who have been forcibly displaced from their homes, who have experienced loss of family members and who have arrived in a new land, with a new language and new expectations are experiencing trauma. Trauma can manifest in delayed learning, erratic emotions, and unexpected behaviours.

Principals should educate themselves and their staff on ways to help students deal with trauma.

Read more:
Why every teacher needs to know about childhood trauma

One Australian primary principal told us he hired a teacher to engage students in art therapy. He said:

There was one boy who drew mountain tops and explained to us the strategies that the Taliban use. It’s this way that they were able to draw it and express it and to get it out. It has a therapeutic nature which allows them to have some self-expression. That allowed them a voice, when they didn’t necessarily have the English.

3. Learn about new students and families

Principals should encourage their staff to learn about new students and their families. This includes learning about their culture and traditions, as well as listening carefully as students tell their stories in class.

One principals told us:

Kids will tell you about their parents, who are still missing in the country that they left, or how the house has been bombed three times by the Americans […] These are all the stories that come out but listening to the kids and you can see the healing that happens as a result of that.

Another primary principal encourages engaging with the refugees’ cultural communities: “Go and visit the local mosque, go and ask some questions”.

Successfully integrating new families into our school communities benefits not only the newcomers, it also creates hope for all Australian families.

Building a diverse society starts with caring and promoting the well-being of all children, particularly newcomers who have been through so much to become part of our communities.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Refugee students struggle with displacement and trauma. Here are 3 ways schools can help them belong – https://theconversation.com/refugee-students-struggle-with-displacement-and-trauma-here-are-3-ways-schools-can-help-them-belong-168387

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Darren Paul Fisher, Assistant Professor, Head of Directing, Department of Film, Screen and Creative Media, Bond University

On September 29, Bond’s 25th adventure No Time To Die had its world premiere. All the necessary credentials to signify the franchise’s new crowd-friendly feminism were present: Daniel Craig sporting a hot pink dinner jacket, Lea Seydoux paraded as the first Bond girl ever to return in a 007 movie sans the male gaze, and director Cary Fukunaga deriding Connery’s Bond as “basically” a rapist.

It appears to be part of a coordinated plan, one that can only be described as the woke-washing of Daniel Craig’s Bond, especially when it comes to the character’s famed sexism. I don’t mean that No Time To Die has gone full-feminist. Like most of us in Australia, I have yet to see the film — and as a lifelong fan, I’m excited to see.

No, I’m talking about the carefully curated revisionist history attempting to re-contextualise, Orwellian-fashion, the recent iteration of Bond as already-and-always-egalitarian. There are many ways in which this is dangerous, not least of which is attempting to ignore that bigotry exists.

A super-spy franchise

Let’s give this some context, with a brief history of our favourite British super-spy. The first book, Casino Royale was released in 1953, the first movie, Dr. No in 1962. There have been six (official) screen Bonds: Sean Connery (1962-67 & 1971), George Lazenby (1969), Roger Moore (1973-1985), Timothy Dalton (1987-1989), Pierce Brosnan (1995-2002) and Daniel Craig (2006-2021).

As each actor ages out of the role (or decides to leave), the character and his world is updated so Bond is always in the right now.

Most of this is surface level, often based on product placement opportunities. Bond is always at the height of fashion with the latest car, experiencing the best that life has to offer. The gadgets are usually at the cutting edge of what is scientifically possible, with only a few (invisible car, anyone?) missteps. Moore’s urbane Bond even had his own espresso machine and was the first to smoke cigars (as did Brosnan). Connery, Lazenby and Dalton preferred cigarettes, with Craig’s version a non-smoker.

But it is this constant retconning where everything starts to go a little awry, especially when it comes to the world-view of Mr. Bond.

Read more:
James Bond is more than a (sexist) secret agent. He is a fertility god, a Dionysus of the modern era

Bond girls

I have written before about my dislike of the Craig-era Bond films, due to their dumbing-down of the character and questionable treatment of women. Yet the real problems started back with GoldenEye (1995). After an agonising six year absence, GoldenEye was seen as a return to form — Pierce Brosnan was terrific, the very epitome of the charming, handsome, irresistible Bond.

The film was also a first attempt to reject Bond’s chauvinist roots. M was now a woman, and she got to call James a “sexist, misogynist dinosaur”. But this was quickly exposed as lip-service, the film operating as usual with women treated as sex objects or damsels in distress. (Moneypenny does point out that Bond’s behaviour could qualify as sexual harassment, but it is in the service of a flirty gag about him having to make good on his innuendos.)

But just which Bond was M talking to? The Bond as personified by Connery, Lazenby, Moore and Dalton since 1962? An argument could be made that Connery’s Bond is problematic to modern eyes, but Roger Moore’s less so, and Dalton was perhaps the most female-respectful version of the character; in no way a misogynist. But clearly M was not talking to Bond at all, but to critics of Bond and his mid-century origins.

The real problem was that somehow the franchise seemed to believe Bond’s misogyny was a defining characteristic, rather than simply a reflection of the time the character and films were created. As Umberto Eco has discussed at length, to appeal to the widest possible audience, Fleming likely shaped Bond’s persona around the most conventional thinking. In other words, he’s a centrist. And the centre shifts. If you take a centrist cis white male from 1952 and put him in 2021, his attitudes will naturally be out of step.

Why did the franchise contemporise everything else about the character, but not this?

The new Bond

Now we are not only being told those misogynist days are “over”, but they’ve been over since at least 2006’s Casino Royale. Yet this second attempt at equality seems no more sincere than the first.

Seydoux’s claim that she’s the first recurring Bond girl is simply wrong. What about Sylvia Trench, Bond’s girlfriend from the first two films? You remember her, the woman who first received the “Bond, James Bond” line?

Fukunaga’s declaration that a scene in Thunderball (1965), where Bond coerces a woman into sex, makes Connery’s version “basically” a rapist is far more credible. But what would he make of the equally problematic Skyfall (2012)? It is perhaps the lowest point in the franchise, both in terms of how the film — and Bond himself — exploit female characters.

Skyfall is a counterpart to Goldeneye (1995), bookending Judi Dench’s M. In perhaps the most disturbing scene of any Bond film of any era, the Bond of Skyfall takes sexual advantage of a sexual abuse victim in fear of her life, all-the-while positioning himself as her only saviour (she dies anyway). It feels like a doctor taking advantage of a vulnerable patient.

At the close of Skyfall, M is reduced to a damsel in distress before being unceremoniously killed off. The final scenes involve sparky, capable agent Eve who decides she would rather be a secretary for the new, male, M (Ralph Fiennes). We realise it is her “rightful” place when her surname is revealed to be Moneypenny.

Read more:
No Time to Die: the problem with Bond villains having facial disfigurements

Freeing James Bond from the past

Why is this a problem? Because Bond is an aspirational figure, so it inevitably validates harmful and outdated ideas. Yet the clamour for Bond’s liberalism, genuine or otherwise, seems a rare example of too much too late.

An always-now Bond does not have to be politically correct. Precedents of this approach are just about any screen superhero ever. 2022’s Batman won’t be defined by his 1939 views on women: not much is made of these views at all. Nor should they be, for they do not define his character. We should give Bond the same freedom: the Bond of today does not need to be defined in relation to Bonds gone by. Although I did quite like the pink jacket.

Darren Paul Fisher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Is James Bond a misogynist? He doesn’t have to be Connery, Moore or even Craig’s vision forever – https://theconversation.com/is-james-bond-a-misogynist-he-doesnt-have-to-be-connery-moore-or-even-craigs-vision-forever-169619

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The line from Scott Morrison’s office that he’s “more likely than not” to attend what Prince Charles dubs a “last chance saloon” (Aka COP26) reflects the PM’s apparent confidence he’ll be able to secure an agreement from those pesky Nationals.

Despite there being several steps ahead to tie down that “net zero” deal, Morrison has been sounding like a man convinced he’s unstoppable.

“My government will come together on this issue,” he declared on Monday. One way or another, is the vibe.

As one Nationals source put it, either the Nationals agree, or they’ll be run over.

But “running over” the Coalition’s minor partner can be as risky as driving a car over a heap of nails. It doesn’t leave the tyres in the best of shape.

The climate policy is due to be discussed by cabinet on Wednesday, ahead of a Nationals party meeting on Sunday.

Nationals sources stress that whatever comes to the cabinet meeting is not something that is owned or authored by Joyce. At this moment there is not yet any “deal”.

Read more:
Government’s leadership group to consider climate policy this week, with high stakes for Morrison and Joyce

The cabinet would not be making a final decision but having Joyce put something to his party, these sources say.

Victorian Nationals Darren Chester (who has been taking time out from the party room) told the ABC on Tuesday that three months ago “Barnaby Joyce said there was zero chance that the Nationals would support a net zero target – now I would say there’s about a 95% chance.

“I think there’s a lot of support and I know many colleagues in the room, who’ve spoken to me privately, [are] making the point that they understand we need a credible position on this issue,” Chester said.

“Despite all his other faults, Barnaby Joyce can count, and he can count the majority of the room is in favour of credible action on climate change.”

While Chester’s assessment of the numbers seems accurate, some Nationals are antsy.

This goes beyond the likes of Queensland senator Matt Canavan and resources minister Keith Pitt.

Canavan will never change his trenchant opposition to the net zero target. On Tuesday, appearing on Sky, he was condemning it as meaning “big government is put in charge” of individuals’ lives – what cars they drove, even what they ate.

Read more:
Climate finance: rich countries aren’t meeting aid targets – could legal action force them?

Pitt, who has been sceptical of a net zero commitment, faces being in an awkward position – as a minister (though not in cabinet) – if he has to sell a firm embrace of that target.

On Tuesday Pitt was visiting the Adani coal mine in Queensland.

Joyce is aware he must tread very carefully with his colleagues. While he appears to be leading his party to a place it never thought it would go, he casts himself as the follower.

Pressed on Tuesday night on whether he as Nationals leader supported a net zero by 2050 target, he resorted to a cute line, telling the ABC, “I don’t support it without the support of my colleagues”.

Read more:
Politics with Michelle Grattan: A prime minister, a prince and the ‘last chance saloon’.

Despite Joyce’s genuflecting to the party room, some Nationals feel they are being steamrolled, or are confused as various senior figures run positions in the media.

For example, what were they to make of the party’s Senate leader Bridget McKenzie’s opinion piece on Monday? In it she advocated a mechanism to enable Australia “to conditionally tie emissions reductions to positive regional socio-economic outcomes. If these were not being achieved, Australia would pause its climate plan rollout”.

Some Nationals wondered whether this was part of a government deal. McKenzie’s office quickly said it wasn’t Nationals policy, but insisted it was not a thought bubble either.

It’s clear a deal will be laden with sweeteners for the Nationals and protections too.

But if there are too many caveats, they will diminish the quality of the policy.

The deal the government reaches (assuming it gets there) needs to be strong enough in its ambition (including for the medium term) to be credible at Glasgow, and in the “leafy” electorates, but also able to be sold by the Nationals in their Queensland seats.

Morrison will be owning the climate part, while Joyce will be looking to the bag of benefits for the regions.

The deal has to work for both of them.

While Morrison is at the G20 and Glasgow – assuming he goes – Joyce will be acting prime minister. The last thing Morrison needs is a spooked Joyce putting his own distinctive spin on the climate policy.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. View from The Hill: Barnaby Joyce keeps his political hands clean on the road to net zero target – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-barnaby-joyce-keeps-his-political-hands-clean-on-the-road-to-net-zero-target-169752

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

As well as Michelle Grattan’s usual interviews with experts and politicians about the news of the day, Politics with Michelle Grattan now includes “Word from The Hill”, where all things political will be discussed with members of The Conversations’s politics team.

In this week’s episode, they canvass Scott Morrison’s signal he now does want to go to Glasgow, as even Prince Charles increases the pressure on him to attend the “last chance saloon”. This comes as crunch time looms for the Nationals to agree to a new government climate policy.

Meanwhile the admission by federal Labor MP Anthony Byrne be branch stacked leaves Anthony Albanese is an awkward position as he prepares for the election.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: A prime minister, a prince and the ‘last chance saloon’. – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-a-prime-minister-a-prince-and-the-last-chance-saloon-169736

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society and NATSEM, University of Canberra

Every year Australia’s Fair Work Commission considers whether to raise the minimum wage. And every year business leaders warn doing it will cost jobs.

This year’s Nobel Prize in economics has been awarded to US-based economist David Card for his work with Alan Krueger in reversing this perception.

Before Card and Krueger “everyone knew” that imposing or increasing a minimum wage would cost jobs. Employers wouldn’t have the money to keep on as many staff.

Card and Krueger work turned that proposition into the Loch Ness Monster of economics – often discussed but never actually seen. It wasn’t just that economists weren’t looking hard enough to find it, it was that it wasn’t there.

In an influential article in 1994, later expanded into a book, Card and Krueger examined a “natural experiment”. In 1992 the US state of New Jersey increased its minimum wage to be the highest in the US. The neighbouring state of Pennsylvania did not.

Surveying fast food workers either side of the border

Fast food outlets employ many workers on the minimum wage.

Card and Krueger surveyed around 400 outlets on either side of the state border. They wanted to see whether there was any difference in the changes in the numbers of workers employed in the cities that were near each other but differed only in what they had done to the minimum wage.

They found “no indication” that the rise in the minimum wage cost jobs.

A 2021 study found support for minimum wages had spread to institutions as well-pedigreed as the International Monetary Fund and the OECD.

It described Card and Kreuger’s paper as “central to this change in view”.

Card and Kreuger’s work has been cited in judgements of Australia’s Fair Work Commission.

It means their work has helped determine the incomes of low wage workers in a country half a world away, a classic example of economist John Maynard Keynes’ dictum about the impact of academic scribblers.

“Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air,” Keynes wrote, “are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back”.

‘Natural experiments’

In another study casting doubt on received wisdom, Card examined the impact of immigration on the wages and employment of locals. He found it was tiny.

A sad aspect of this year’s Nobel is that Card could not share it with his co-author.

Alan Kreuger arguably made an even greater contribution to economics. His work ranged from the economics of inequality and rock music to terrorism.

Read more:
Resistance to raising the minimum wage reflects obsolete thinking

Kreuger also served as chair of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers. Tragically he took his own life in 2019. Nobels are not awarded posthumously.

Instead the prize was shared with Joshua Angrist and Guido Imbens. Their Nobels were for “methodological contributions to the analysis of causal relationships”.

In many cases economists can’t do controlled experiments. Governments are reluctant to boost the minimum wages of just half of the workforce so that economists can see what happens.

Read more:
Nobel economics prize winners showed economists how to turn the real world into their laboratory

Instead economists create “natural experiments” using things such as the differences between cities on either side of borders. Angrist and Imbens helped establish a framework for how to conduct them.

The award of this year’s Nobel to three US-based men did little to point to diversity in economics.

Male, middle-aged, American

A possible indicator of a future winner is that Susan Athey was this month elected 2022 President of the American Economics Association.

Her research interests include the economics of the internet and news media, machine learning, big data and cryptocurrencies.

This year’s winner David Card is the current president of the American Economics Association, as have been many other previous Nobel winners.

Athey was also the first woman to win the John Bates Clark Medal which is awarded to the American economist under the age of 40 judged to have made the most significant contribution to economic thought and knowledge.

Card is one of many John Bates Clark Medal winners to later win a Nobel.

John Hawkins does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Introducing David Card, the 2021 Nobel Prize in Economics winner who made the minimum wage respectable – https://theconversation.com/introducing-david-card-the-2021-nobel-prize-in-economics-winner-who-made-the-minimum-wage-respectable-169715

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lindy Willmott, Professor of Law, Australian Centre for Health Law Research, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland University of Technology

Voluntary assisted dying has been available to eligible Victorians for more than two years, and to Western Australians since July 2021. Laws also passed this year in Tasmania, South Australia and Queensland, with schemes to commence after an implementation period.

On Thursday, New South Wales parliament will debate a bill drafted by independent MP Alex Greenwich. It’s still unclear which way the numbers will go, and whether the bill will pass – it’s likely to be a tight vote.

So how does this bill compare with other state laws? And what should voting MPs take into account?

How is it similar to other state laws?

Overall, the NSW bill reflects the broad Australian voluntary assisted dying model. The eligibility criteria, which determine who can access the scheme, are strict, and note the person must have:

• decision-making capacity
• a condition that is advanced, progressive and will cause death within six months (or 12 months for a neurodegenerative disease), and which causes intolerable suffering.

The request and assessment process also largely reflects laws of other states, including that the person must make three requests, and be assessed as eligible by two senior doctors who have completed mandatory training.

After the patient is assessed as eligible, the NSW bill requires the doctor to apply to the Voluntary Assisted Dying Board for authorisation to proceed. This requirement, which we argue delays the process without adding any further safeguard, is also contained in the Victorian, Tasmanian and South Australian legislation.

The NSW bill permits health professionals to conscientiously object to participation, a feature of all Australian Acts. It also regulates the extent to which institutions can refuse to provide the service. This is also dealt with in the South Australian and Queensland laws.

Consistent with other states, a board will be established to monitor the operation of the NSW Act.

How is it different to other states?

The proposed NSW model differs from (most of) the other laws in two main ways.

First, the period between the person’s first and final request for voluntary assisted dying is five days. It’s nine days in most of the other states, though it’s shorter in Tasmania.

This period may have been shortened in light of emerging evidence from Victoria that patients sometimes die during the process.

Read more:
Victoria’s voluntary assisted dying scheme is challenging and complicated. Some people die while they wait

The second difference is the patient is able to choose between self-administration (where they consume the substance themselves) and practitioner administration (where the doctor administers the substance).

In other states, self-administration is the default method, although the states vary regarding when practitioner administration is permitted.

What happened recently in Queensland?

If the recent Queensland experience is anything to go by, the NSW debate will be calm and measured and, for some MPs, informed by the emerging body of evidence on how the scheme has been operating in Victoria to date.

Queensland passed the legislation by a majority of 61:30 after a debate over three days. Two issues were prominent:

1. the need for greater funding for palliative care (for which there was unanimous support)

2. the extent to which the Queensland public wanted choice at the end of life.

The argument that vulnerable cohorts will disproportionately seek voluntary assisted dying was raised, but did not feature prominently – perhaps because this claim is not supported by the evidence.

Read more:
Voluntary assisted dying could soon be legal in Queensland. Here’s how its bill differs from other states

In voting against the bill, Queensland MP Andrew Powell declared his Christian beliefs influenced his decision, but said “it pains me to disappoint many in my electorate”.

While Mr Powell is to be commended for his transparency, he chose his own religious convictions to guide his vote, rather than seeking to reflect the values of the majority in his electorate.

How is the debate likely to play out in NSW?

Voluntary assisted dying has been debated in NSW on multiple occasions between 1997 and 2017. The Greens initiated most bills, though the 2017 Bill – which lost by only one vote in the Legislative Council – was introduced by Nationals MP Trevor Khan.

This time the debate will occur in an unusual political environment. New premier Dominic Perrottet describes himself as a practising Catholic and opposes voluntary assisted dying. Deputy premier Paul Toole and Labor leader Chris Minns also oppose voluntary assisted dying.

Perrottet will allow a conscience vote, as has been the convention for such bills in Australia for more than 20 years.

The NSW bill will be introduced by an independent, but has around 30 signatories, including government and cross-bench members.

Read more:
FactCheck Q&A: do 80% of Australians and up to 70% of Catholics and Anglicans support euthanasia laws?

MPs should rightly consider a range of factors during this debate, including how the bill achieves its policy objectives and how the many safeguards will operate.

But MPs must also be transparent about the values that guide their decision. Does their vote reflect their own values, or are they seeking to reflect the views of the majority of their constituents?

Lindy Willmott has received funding from the Australian Research Council, the National Health and Medical Research Council and Commonwealth and State Governments for research and training about the law, policy and practice relating to end-of-life care. In relation to voluntary assisted dying, she (with colleagues) has been engaged by the Victorian and Western Australian Governments to design and provide the legislatively-mandated training for doctors involved in voluntary assisted dying in those States. She (with Ben White) has also developed a model Bill for voluntary assisted dying for parliaments to consider. Lindy Willmott is a former member of the board of Palliative Care Australia.

Ben White receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the National Health and Medical Research Council and Commonwealth and State Governments for research and training about the law, policy and practice relating to end-of-life care. In relation to voluntary assisted dying, he (with colleagues) has been engaged by the Victorian and Western Australian Governments to design and provide the legislatively-mandated training for doctors involved in voluntary assisted dying in those States. He (with Lindy Willmott) has also developed a model Bill for voluntary assisted dying for parliaments to consider. Ben White is a recipient of an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (project number FT190100410: Enhancing End-of-Life Decision-Making: Optimal Regulation of Voluntary Assisted Dying) funded by the Australian Government.

– ref. Voluntary assisted dying will be debated in NSW parliament this week. Here’s what to expect – https://theconversation.com/voluntary-assisted-dying-will-be-debated-in-nsw-parliament-this-week-heres-what-to-expect-169468

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexander Larcombe, Associate Professor and Head of Respiratory Environmental Health, Telethon Kids Institute

From October 1, it’s been illegal to buy e-liquids containing nicotine without a prescription from a doctor everywhere in Australia, except South Australia.

But vaping with nicotine-free e-liquids is not illegal in Australia (though in some jurisdictions the e-cigarette devices themselves are illegal).

Vaping is increasing in popularity in Australia, particularly among young people.

I co-led a research team that wanted to find out what’s in the nicotine free e-liquids that vapers inhale, and their potential health effects.

Our study, published this week in The Medical Journal of Australia, found most e-liquids contained chemicals known to cause respiratory issues and lung damage when inhaled. Most contained ingredients that have since been banned by Australia’s drug regulator, the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA).

We also found all e-liquids contained substances for which the health effects of inhalation exposure are unknown.

It’s clear vaping isn’t safe, and e-cigarettes haven’t been approved as smoking cessation devices.

Read more:
Vaping: As an imaging scientist I fear the deadly impact on people’s lungs

What did we study?

A few years ago, we conducted a small study which involved chemically analysing ten e-liquids purchased in Australia. All of them were labelled “nicotine free”.

Our research, published in The Medical Journal of Australia in 2019, was surprising and concerning. We found 60% of the liquids contained nicotine. In some instances, this was at levels high enough not to be just trace contamination.

We also found all ten e-liquids contained a chemical called “2-chlorophenol”, which is often used in pesticides and disinfectants and is a known irritant to the skin and lungs.

Most of the e-liquids also contained “2-aminooctanoic acid, which is an amino acid found in the biological products of mammals, including faeces, urine and blood. Its presence was potentially a result of contamination with one of these substances during the manufacturing or packaging processes.

Our findings prompted us to expand on our previous study.

This time we analysed 65 Australian e-liquids, including using a method aimed at better understanding how heating the e-liquids for vaping might change their chemical components.

This was the most expansive analysis of Australian e-liquids to date, and was led by Curtin University and the Wal-yan Respiratory Research Centre, in conjunction with Lung Foundation Australia, the Minderoo Foundation, and Cancer Council Western Australia.

All of the e-liquids we studied were purchased online or from brick-and-mortar stores across Australia. All were advertised as being “best-sellers”, Australian made, and nicotine free, so it’s likely they’re representative of what many Australian vapers might be using.

None of the e-liquids were labelled with a comprehensive ingredient list, so it’s impossible for users to know what chemicals they’re inhaling. It also means all the e-liquids we tested wouldn’t be compliant with European Union labelling regulations.

Read more:
Vaping is glamourised on social media, putting youth in harm’s way

What else did we find?

Many of the flavouring chemicals we detected are “generally regarded as safe” by the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) when used in foods and drinks. But there’s a big difference between a chemical that’s safe to ingest and one which is safe to inhale long-term.

We also detected nicotine in some e-liquids, however, it was found much less frequently and at much lower concentrations than in our previous study. This may be indicative of a cleaner manufacturing process.

We only tested for “freebase” nicotine, which is typically used in both conventional cigarettes and nicotine replacement therapies. So, the e-liquids may have contained a different type of nicotine, called nicotine salts, which are much more commonly used now than they were a few years ago.

We also found 2-chlorophenol again, although it was only in about half of the e-liquids tested. Regardless, the contamination of e-liquids with this known toxic chemical, which has no valid reason for being present, remains a significant problem.

A range of other chemicals of concern were commonly detected, including benzaldehyde, trans-cinnamaldehyde and menthol. These chemicals are added for their almond, cinnamon and mint flavours, respectively.

Benzaldehyde was found in every e-liquid except four, while menthol and trans-cinnamaldehyde were found in about three-quarters of the e-liquids. The presence of these chemical flavourings was concerning for a number of reasons.

Firstly, they’re all known to alter the effects of nicotine. Menthol makes nicotine more addictive.

Benzaldehyde and trans-cinnamaldehyde are known to inhibit an enzyme called “CYP2A6”. CYP2A6 is responsible for metabolising and detoxifying many drugs humans are exposed to, including nicotine.

When its function is impaired by these flavouring chemicals, it means a vaper using e-liquids containing nicotine is going to have nicotine in their body for a longer period of time before it’s processed by the body.

Benzaldehyde is also a respiratory irritant and can reduce a person’s ability to fight off lung infections. Trans-cinnamaldehyde has even more severe effects on the immune cells in the lung.

Both of these chemicals are now included on the TGA’s list of prohibited e-liquid ingredients, meaning they’re banned in Australian e-liquids. Menthol isn’t banned by the TGA, but it’s prohibited in tobacco cigarettes in some countries. In this study, the e-liquids were analysed before the ban came into force.

This research clearly shows Australian e-liquids contain a range of chemicals that are either known to negatively impact health, or for which the potential health impacts of inhalation exposure are unknown.

A lot more research is needed in this space before informed decisions on both nicotine free and nicotine e-cigarette usage can be made, and to better understand how vaping impacts our health.

The author would like to acknowledge Professor Ben Mullins and Dr Sebastien Allard, of Curtin University, who were co-leads on this research project.

For this study Alexander Larcombe, Ben Mullins and Sebastien Allard received funding from Lung Foundation Australia, Minderoo Foundation and Cancer Council WA. Alexander Larcombe is affiliated with ACOSH – the Australian Council on Smoking and Health.

– ref. Many e-cigarette vaping liquids contain toxic chemicals: new Australian research – https://theconversation.com/many-e-cigarette-vaping-liquids-contain-toxic-chemicals-new-australian-research-169615

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tomas Trescak, Senior Lecturer in Intelligent Systems, Western Sydney University

Graduates entering an ever-more-competitive job market are often unaware of the skills and values they offer employers. The challenge is greater with emerging job roles that require certifications and both multidisciplinary skills and specialist knowledge, even for entry-level positions.

We seek to empower our graduates and maximise their career prospects. New research has enabled us to harness the power of artificial intelligence for a custom-designed course planning and recommendation system for students based on the skills their desired jobs actually require. We named these curriculum delivery models JobFit and ModuLearn.

Read more:
Migration is a quick fix for skills shortages. Building on Australians’ skills is better

JobFit: a career-driven curriculum

JobFit builds on a simple premise of informing students about the skills they will gain by completing a knowledge unit. This helps students to analyse skills gained from an individual study pathway and how these relate to career prospects.

Students can explore and experiment with various pathways. This “what if?” analysis is tailored to their career goals and knowledge preferences. The system monitors their study progress and proactively offers alternative pathways to maximise their acquisition of skills related to their goals.

We base the skills on recognised frameworks. For science, technology and business, we use the Skills for Information Age (SFIA) framework version 8, defining 121 skills, each on seven different levels.

For example, performing a basic risk assessment in an organisation requires “information security” skill at the lowest level. At the highest level it enables the person to design organisational and governmental policies assuring global information security.

Governments and organisations in Australia, United States, United Kingdom and European Union have created datasets using SFIA skills to define desired job profiles.

Drawing on these datasets, we designed a prototypical course-planning tool. (To login, please provide your email and role you would like to play in the system. A password is not required.) Western Sydney University students can use it to explore their skill compatibility with ICT job roles.

The chart above shows the compatibility with general role profiles, for Bachelor of ICT students considering junior-level positions. The video below shows the possibilities of this tool.

This approach has several benefits. First, students understand how their studies develop their skills. They can then set career-driven goals and make well-informed decisions about their study pathways.

Solid understanding of skills and knowing how to express these in CVs and cover letters are increasingly important. This is because human resource departments are adopting automated approaches to search for and filter out candidates, using algorithmic processing and text mining.

We can use SFIA to express skills in technology-related areas. However, it does not apply to other areas such as engineering, human sciences, law or medicine.

We are looking at acquiring data from an external partner to analyse and process required skills from live job offers across all industries. We will then be able to inform students on the quantity, variety and compatibility of actual job offers in any industry based on their knowledge profile.

This approach will also benefit curriculum designers facing the challenges of new subjects being rapidly introduced to maintain an advantage over competitors. The result is often an incoherent curriculum, particularly when it comes to meeting industry and employer needs.

A lack of understanding of what skills are desired in the job market and ad-hoc additions have led to programs that do not provide clear study pathways and relevance to work roles. Our model allows curriculum designers to analyse and validate their curriculum against job market needs.

Last, working with industry partners, we defined custom job profiles for the industry area of interest and locality. Students who target such custom skill sets are in a stronger position when applying for work with an industry partner.

Read more:
How work-integrated learning helps to make billions in uni funding worth it

ModuLearn: promoting cross-disciplinary skills

Informing students on the skills they are acquiring is only half of the job. A student must also acquire all their desired skills in a relatively short period.

In undergraduate degrees, much of the course is typically pre-defined with core subjects. Students are often left with only one or two semesters to focus their knowledge on particular employers’ desired skill set. It’s even more of problem in shorter courses such as diplomas or certificates.

It’s likely too that a student’s faculty or school does not offer some critical skills. Students are often reluctant to study in a different school or faculty, fearing the challenge of a new environment.

To overcome these issues, we looked at ways to increase the variety and number of knowledge units with diverse skills. We found inspiration in Charles Sturt University’s Engineering Topic Tree. It allows students to customise their degree by choosing from over 1,000 different topics. Topics are organised by disciplines, with well-organised prerequisites and pathways.

What this topic tree lacks is the backing of technology that allows students to easily explore all their options. We built on the topic tree idea and designed skill-informed modules. These are study units usually lasting two to eight weeks. Each module clearly defines the skills required as prerequisites and the skills it delivers.

An intertwined network of modules delivers fundamental and applied knowledge but each module requires less of a commitment from students than semester-long subjects. We hope in this way to encourage students to study across disciplines.

However, managing all the possible module combinations, prerequisites and user preferences is a significant technological challenge. This called for novel research, not just an application of existing AI approaches.

Read more:
Artificial intelligence is now part of our everyday lives – and its growing power is a double-edged sword

Working with the Artificial Intelligence Research Institute (IIIA) in Barcelona, we developed technological means to design and maintain a module-based curriculum for both curriculum designers and students. Delivery models can be adapted to different public or private financing options and educational standards, such as the Australian Qualifications Framework (AQF).

Curriculum development tends to lag behind technology development and shifting market needs. Ideally, curriculum development should be more responsive and future-focused rather than reactive. With smaller modules instead of semester-long subjects, it is possible to adapt much more quickly to ever-changing job market needs.

I would like to acknowledge the rest of our team, Professor Juan Antonio Rodriguez and Dr Filippo Bistafa from IIIA, Spain, Ms Lynn Berry, Professor Simeon Simoff and Professor Andrew Francis from Western Sydney University.

Tomas Trescak does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How AI can guide course design and study choices to help graduates get the jobs they want – https://theconversation.com/how-ai-can-guide-course-design-and-study-choices-to-help-graduates-get-the-jobs-they-want-167055

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

Never has an inquiry into the skyrocketing price of homes been more urgent.

Rarely has one been as insultingly ill-suited as the one under way right now.

Midway through last year in the midst of COVID, the average forecast of the 22 leading economists who took part in The Conversation mid-year survey was for no increase in home prices whatsoever in the year ahead (actually for slight falls).

At that time the typical (median) Sydney house price was A$1 million, where it stayed until the end of the year.

Then it took off. In the ten months to the start of this month the typical Sydney house price soared $300,000 to $1.3 million – a breathtaking increase (and an awfully big penalty for delaying buying) of $1,000 each day.

For apartments, the increase isn’t as big, although still extraordinary. The cost of delaying buying a typical Sydney apartment has been $334 each day.

The cost of delaying buying a typical Melbourne house has been close to $600 per day, the cost of delaying buying a typical Melbourne apartment $150 per day.

Read more:
Home prices are climbing alright, but not for the reason you might think

In that time, in the year in which the typical Australian home price climbed 20.3%, the typical Australian wage climbed just 1.7%

What people stretched to the limit or now locked out of the housing market are desperate to know is

• why it is happening

• when it is likely to stop

• what (if anything) we can do about it.

Instead, we have been given an inquiry into affordability in name only. Seriously. The parliamentary inquiry commissioned by the treasurer in July and chaired by backbencher Jason Falinski is called an inquiry into affordability and supply, but the word “affordability” appears in none of its three terms of reference.

It’s an inquiry into ‘supply’

Instead, the terms of reference refer to the impact of taxes, charges and other things settings on “housing supply”.

I guess the idea is that it is obvious that supply is the key to affordability, but it rather negates the idea of holding an inquiry, and it sits oddly with the explosion in prices we have seen in a year in which building approvals have surged by a near-record 224,000 and our population has as good as stayed still.

In its submission to the inquiry the Reserve Bank includes a graph showing the supply of housing (the stock of houses and apartments) outpacing population growth for the best part of the decade leading up to the latest price explosion.

Supply has been holding up

But in a sense (and stay with me here) whoever drafted the restricted terms of reference is right. Housing affordability is linked to the supply of housing.

And housing affordability has been doing okay.

In evidence to the inquiry last month Treasury assistant secretary John Swieringa drew a distinction between housing affordability (best measured by the cost of renting housing) and the cost of buying a house, which was partly an investment.

When you are a purchaser of a house you are partly investing in an asset and partly buying dwelling services; whereas when you are renting it’s probably a cleaner read on what cost dwelling services is.

That clean read – rent as a proportion of income – hasn’t much changed in 20 years. For middle earners it has remained comfortably between 20% and 25% of household disposable income.

The Reserve Bank says advertised rents for units in Sydney and Melbourne have drifted down by $30 to $50 per week over the past five years while rents in other places have mostly drifted higher.

As it happens, it says another measure of housing affordability is also improving.

The cost of home loan payments as a proportion of income has been falling since the onset of COVID. Dramatically lower interest rates mean payments take up less household disposable income than they did five years ago, even with the much higher prices.

The problem is accessibility

What has changed is what the Reserve Bank calls “housing accessibility”, to distinguish it from housing affordability.

Accessibility is the ability of a first time owner or renter to get into the market at all by finding the deposit or bond.

Astounding price growth and five years of weak income growth have pushed up the cost of an average first home deposit from 70% of income to more than 80%.

On average it now takes a 24-35 year old nine years of tucking away one fifth of their income each year to save for a typical Sydney deposit, up from five to six years a decade ago.

Average First Home Buyer Deposit

It’s okay if you have a parent who can get their hands on money, almost impossible if you don’t. In the words of former Reserve Bank official Peter Tulip, it’s making home ownership hereditary.

He’s not the first person to have noticed.

Liberal backbencher John Alexander chaired the Coalition’s 2015 inquiry into home ownership. He said then we were “on track to becoming a Kingdom where the Lords own all the land and the biggest Lord will be King and the enslaved serf tenant is paying rent to the Lord to become wealthier”.

Ownership is becoming hereditary

Prime Minister Turnbull and Treasurer Scott Morrison used the 2016 election (in which they attacked Labor’s plan to limit tax breaks for landlords) to shut down Alexander’s inquiry, and only agreed to restart it with someone else as chair. It had considered 30 hours of evidence.

The chair of this current (limited) inquiry seems unperturbed.

He opened September’s hearings saying no question was off-limits, no idea too stupid, all forms of inquiry were worthwhile. It’d be great if that was true.

Peter Martin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. As home prices soar beyond reach, we have a government inquiry almost designed not to tell us why – https://theconversation.com/as-home-prices-soar-beyond-reach-we-have-a-government-inquiry-almost-designed-not-to-tell-us-why-168959