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Scientific measurement won’t answer all questions in education. We need teacher and student voices, too

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lucinda McKnight, Senior Lecturer in Pedagogy and Curriculum, Deakin University

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The recently released report of the review into initial teacher education recommends universities use randomised controlled trials (RCTs) to find evidence for effective methods of educating teachers. It says:

Randomised Controlled Trials (RCTs), the gold standard in empirical research, are
rarely used in evaluating the impact of initial teacher education (ITE) programs. Higher education providers are encouraged to conduct RCTs to inform evidence-based
teaching practice.

Randomised controlled trials are indeed the “gold standard” for specific kinds of medical research. They are the best way to compare a new treatment to either a standard treatment or no treatment at all.

In such a study, participants are randomly allocated to either the new or standard (control) treatments using the computer equivalent of tossing a coin. This process is known as randomisation. When the results are compared between the two groups, randomisation ensures an unbiased estimate of the treatment effect.

But it is naive to transpose the gold standard for specific kinds of research in medicine onto an entirely different discipline, such as teaching.

In educational research, a study might ask what challenges Indigenous Australians face in becoming teachers. This might involve a yarning or narrative inquiry approach, in which preservice teachers and researchers share their stories for in-depth collaborative analysis.

Another study might wonder why preservice teachers identify one placement school as having an especially supportive learning culture. This invites a case study of the school involving the principal, teachers, students and community, to understand the complex dimensions of this context.

Neither of these projects is less valid or important than those suited for randomised controlled trials. And creating a hierarchy of importance can mean research funding is directed away from any study that doesn’t use a randomised controlled method.

Where randomised trials are beneficial

A study that attempts to establish cause (usually an intervention) and effect (a desired improvement) might involve a randomised controlled trial. For instance, a study might want to examine the impact of a new program for teacher education.

One such study is a trial conducted in NSW in 2014-15 on the effectiveness of Quality Teaching Rounds – a specific approach to teacher professional learning in schools. Researchers wanted to know if this approach improved teaching. Teachers were randomly allocated to one of two intervention groups that would undertake the quality teacher rounds, or to a control group.




Read more:
Randomised control trials: what makes them the gold standard in medical research?


Researchers observed and assessed the teaching of all participants. The researchers were “blinded”, meaning they did not know whether they were assessing teachers in the intervention or control group. The trial found Quality Teaching Rounds made a statistically significant improvement in the quality of teaching in the intervention groups.

Other educational research is just as valid

In a different kind of study, researchers wanted to gain insight into the perspective of teachers themselves on how they learn at their workplace. A randomised controlled trial would not be able to achieve this aim.

Instead, researchers conducted in-depth interviews with four teachers they selected from a larger group. They encouraged teachers to talk freely about their learning goals, then coded and categorised their transcribed responses. Through this, researchers identified ways teachers feel they learn best: through reading, experience, reflection and collaboration.




Read more:
We have the evidence for what works in schools, but that doesn’t mean everyone uses it


Another example of important educational research that can’t be done through randomised controlled trials is action research, where teachers try a new classroom idea, reflect critically on the process and modify their approach – in an ongoing cycle. In one such project two teachers are investigating the effect of interdisciplinary team teaching on student and teacher learning. Teacher researchers also reflect on feedback from other colleagues and students.

This kind of research is identified as empowering for teachers and offers scope for them to create their own projects. Randomised controlled trials, in contrast, are complex for teachers to establish and run reliably.

The limitations of randomised trials

The newly established Australian Education Research Organisation (AERO) has published some extraordinary guidelines advising teachers to conduct randomised controlled trials in their classrooms.

The organisation suggests individual teachers should flip a coin to decide how they will teach, or split their class randomly into two, and teach one half one way and the other half another. However, this is methodologically unsound and impractical in a single class. The person deciding who gets the intervention should not be the person delivering the intervention or assessing the outcome. Otherwise bias is inevitable.

AERO’s advice demonstrates ignorance not only of randomised controlled trials, but of teacher workloads, by expecting teachers to teach in two ways at once.

Even in medicine (where they originated), randomised controlled trials cannot answer all questions. They cannot, for example, determine people’s attitudes, biases and commitments to certain issues. Medical researchers also use the various approaches described above.




Read more:
In defence of observational science: randomised experiments aren’t the only way to the truth


Research shows one disadvantage of randomised controlled trials in education is that the interventions they assess are not likely to have the same effect across all contexts and groups of students. They require additional process evaluations.

Another disadvantage is randomised controlled trials tend to be externally designed and academically-run, rather than teacher-led. Few teachers are experts in medical-style research. This positions teachers in a subservient way, in their own profession. Our research suggests it is just as important to understand “what is going on”, as it is to try to prove “what works”.

Privileging scientific measurement over participants’ voices

The ideal way to find answers to questions in education is to conduct quantitative (numbers-based) and qualitative (people-based) research in parallel. This would answer complementary questions.

But privileging one kind of research over all others demonstrates a lack of understanding of the nature of research. It suggests a bullying preoccupation with scientific measurement over research that privileges participants’ voices, especially in a feminised profession.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Scientific measurement won’t answer all questions in education. We need teacher and student voices, too – https://theconversation.com/scientific-measurement-wont-answer-all-questions-in-education-we-need-teacher-and-student-voices-too-178167

How do anti-tank missiles work – and how helpful might they be for Ukraine’s soldiers?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Dwyer, Associate Lecturer and PhD Candidate, School of Social Sciences, University of Tasmania

Pavlo Palamarchuk/AP

Ukraine’s allies have sent some 17,000 anti-tank weapons into the battlefield, in a bid to help fighters bog down the Russian offensive.

The stockpile includes at least 2,000 NLAW (Next Generation Light Antitank Weapon) missiles from the United Kingdom, 100 NLAWs from Luxembourg, and several hundred Javelin missiles from the United States and Estonia. The NLAW and Javelin are some of the most advanced man-portable anti-tank missiles available.

Both are relatively lightweight, shoulder-fired missiles which – although they won’t completely turn the tide of the war – have so far proven valuable in what is otherwise a highly asymmetrical conflict.

So how do the missiles work? And what makes them so helpful for Ukraine’s defence?

What are anti-tank missiles?

Portable anti-tank missiles are specifically designed to destroy main battle tanks, which are more heavily armoured than other types of armoured vehicles (such as armoured personnel carriers, for instance).

Main battle tanks, which Russia has deployed in large numbers, use modern and highly advanced armour technology, including “explosive reactive armour” (or ERA). In other words, the tank’s armour explodes outwards when impacted by a warhead. This is intended to divert the blast and minimise the damage caused.

However, explosive reactive armour actually isn’t much of an advantage against the modern anti-tank missiles being used by Ukrainian fighters. The NLAW and Javelin missiles are designed to hit a tank from above in a “top attack” – striking at the top of the tank’s turret where the armour is thinnest. This will either completely destroy the tank, or incapacitate the crew inside.

The missiles can also be used in “direct fire” mode against less well-armoured vehicles, such as armoured personnel carriers, buildings or even low-flying helicopters – with devastating results. This makes them a highly flexible and dangerous weapon for opposing forces.

Perhaps the greatest advantage of anti-tank missiles is their range and ease of use. They are relatively lightweight (between 10-25kg depending on the model), can be used by a single soldier and require (relatively) minimal training to handle. They are also extremely difficult to detect, due to their size and mobility.

Fire and forget

These modern missiles are fully guided “fire-and-forget” weapons, which means a soldier can immediately hide or relocate after firing. The projectile locks-on to the target and guides itself once fired.

In the case of a Javelin this is achieved using infrared technology, wherein the missile locks onto any heat signature present in the tanks.

NLAW missiles use “predictive line of sight” technology. The guidance package calculates both the distance to the target and the target’s speed (if its mobile), and guides itself to the predicted location. With this, a single soldier can snipe a tank at range.

NLAWs have a range of up to 1km, while the Javelin has a maximum effective range of up to 4.5km. Javelins are therefore much more expensive than NLAWs, with a single missile costing about US$80,000 (or A$110,000).

In the case of both the NLAW and Javelin, the warhead detonates upon impact with a hard object. A direct hit can be enough to wipe out a single tank if it impacts an area with thinner armour, such as the tanks turret – but it generally won’t have much impact on tanks nearby.

Even a glancing blow from one of these weapons may well be enough to incapacitate a tank, if not fully destroy it. Thus, anti-tank missiles pose a significant and, crucially, difficult-to-detect threat to Russian armoured columns.

A seemingly effective strategy

Russia does not appear to be relying on man-portable anti-tank weaponry to the same extent as Ukraine.

At this stage it’s drawing on a vast arsenal of tanks and aviation assets, such as attack helicopters, for its anti-tank capability. This may be due to Ukraine carefully husbanding and protecting its limited tank arsenal.

This could change at short notice, however, as Russia does possess its own anti-tank missiles.

Reports indicate Russians have suffered heavy losses against anti-tank weaponry, to the point where we’ve seen images and videos online showing Russian soldiers putting up makeshift mesh screens and cages over their tanks, in a (futile) effort to protect themselves.

These are colloquially termed “cope cages” by various communities on the internet. Of course, they will do little to minimise the impact from a missile, but they do demonstrate that Russian soldiers are fearful of the threat the missiles present.

Unverified reports indicate there have potentially been 280 armoured vehicles destroyed by Javelin’s in Ukraine, out of 300 fired. If the reports are true, this is a remarkable strike rate.

It appears these weapons have, in part, allowed the Ukraine army to bog down and stall the Russian advance, at a significant cost to Russia.

The Conversation

James Dwyer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. How do anti-tank missiles work – and how helpful might they be for Ukraine’s soldiers? – https://theconversation.com/how-do-anti-tank-missiles-work-and-how-helpful-might-they-be-for-ukraines-soldiers-178886

Thinking of buying a dehumidifier? Advice from an expert on mould and damp

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Taylor, Adjunct academic, Flinders University

Shutterstock

Google searches for “dehumidifier” have soared in the past month, especially in New South Wales, and there are a lot of options to choose from.

But how much moisture can these things really remove? And what happens if you just ignore the problem?

I’ve researched mould and indoor air quality, and work with clients helping address mould problems in homes. Here’s what you need to know on where a dehumidifier can help, and when it’s more likely just a band-aid for a deeper problem.




À lire aussi :
Sudden mould outbreak after all this rain? You’re not alone – but you are at risk


Reduce moisture through big and small fixes

Too much moisture can cause your house and belongings to go mouldy. A bad smell soon follows.

Balancing that moisture to ensure we live in healthy, comfortable spaces while controlling mould and microbial growth is a challenge. Sometimes we can be notoriously bad at ventilating domestic spaces appropriately.

I see a dismayingly frequent number of bathrooms without an extraction fan. Or laundries with clothes driers, pumping hot wet air into the room with no system to get that moisture outside.

In fact, the way we live in often well-sealed houses can trap lots of the moisture we sweat and steam off though everyday activities.

Showers, cooking, sweating and drying clothes produce anywhere from six to 12 litres of indoor moisture per person every day.

A dehumidifier might reduce moisture in a house but it won’t fix the underlying problem if your house has insufficient systems to re-route moisture outside.

A fan in a bathroom
Wherever possible, moisture should be re-routed outside.
Shutterstock

So would a dehumidifier help?

But if you’re renting or short on cash, and circumstances prevent you adding an extraction fan, a dehumidifier will at least help keep things under control.

You’ll need to do a little research to make sure you’re buying a dehumidifier that’s powerful enough to get the job done.

Most “mid-range” units state they’re capable of pulling somewhere around three to 15 litres of water out of the air per day.

That’s probably enough to help in some areas. But moisture will spread itself through the whole house.

This figure also doesn’t take into account how much moisture is in the air naturally, with higher natural relative humidity in Queensland and Darwin particularly making this more of an uphill battle.

So how much help would a dehumidifier actually be? That depends on how much water is in the air.

One cubic metre of air has 1,000 litres of volume, and at 20℃ can hold about 17 grams of water.

Reduce that temperature to 10℃ and it can only hold around 10g. But up the temperature to 30℃ and it can hold around 30g of water.

So, given a normal 3×4-metre lounge room in the middle of spring in a relatively dry place like Adelaide, you’ve probably got 200-300 millilitres of water in the air. With air flowing in and around the house and different rooms, you’re starting to approach a few litres of natural moisture just hanging around.

If you’re in Darwin, or a state contending with weeks of seemingly endless rain, you can probably double your calculations. You might have tens of litres of water to remove from the air throughout the house over the course of the day.

Without some seriously big dehumidifiers, you simply won’t be able to overcome that problem without being targeted in your approach.

In these cases, you’ll be most successful where you can control the amount of outside air coming in, and by placing the dehumidifier in the affected area with good air circulation around it. So keep windows closed when it’s rainy and put the dehumidifer in the most moisture-laden part of the house.

Should you also keep the door closed to help the dehumidifier work best on a particular room, or is it better so open doors so as to reduce humidity throughout the house? Well, if you know you’ve got it located at source, a closed space can help. But it’s a balancing act.

Too much moisture can cause your house and belongings to go mouldy. A bad smell soon follows.
Shutterstock

Getting the balance right

If your home has been flooded, a dehumidifier of any size is at best only a small part of the solution. Significant volumes of building materials and soft furnishings will need to be disposed of and assessed for warping or structural damage.

In these instances, professional drying is required and there are some seriously powerful dehumidifiers on the market.

But these are often used inside contained spaces where damaged rooms are sheeted in plastic to limit the flow of outside air (bringing in more moisture).

While there are rules about toxic chemicals and airborne hazards in workplaces, Australia is sorely lacking when it comes to regulations on comfortable indoor humidity and mould spores.

The guidance documents most frequently referred to tend to indicate a comfortable indoor humidity sits between 30-60% relative humidity, and that bringing indoor relative humidity to below 65% tends to notably reduce microbial growth.

However, pushing the relative humidity too low can be uncomfortable. It can dry out your eyes, skin and mucous membranes, increase some infection risks and may cause long term damage to materials (such as wood – particularly decorative wood – and some paper objects, art and some styles of heritage flooring).

So would a dehumidifer be a waste of money once the rain stops?

When the rain stops, have you just wasted your money on an expensive piece of kit? Would one of those cheap little DampRid pots full of moisture-absorbent crystals or powder have been enough?

Not likely. Desiccants such as DampRid pots can help in closed boxes or where you’ve only got a small air space. But at best, they generally only pull about three times their weight in moisture out of the air; a 300g pot might capture nearly a litre of water, but that’s it.

So dehumidifiers can help if you’re clever with that you’re trying to achieve, but you should always look to solve the underlying cause. That means, where possible, looking to improve your exhaust and ventilation.




À lire aussi :
Fungi after the floods: how to get rid of mould to protect your health


The Conversation

Michael Taylor provides consulting services in the area of indoor air quality and mould assessment for Greencap. He has previously received funding from SafeWork SA.

ref. Thinking of buying a dehumidifier? Advice from an expert on mould and damp – https://theconversation.com/thinking-of-buying-a-dehumidifier-advice-from-an-expert-on-mould-and-damp-178633

​Crowdfunding disaster relief offers hope in desperate times. But who gets left behind?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Wade, Lecturer in Social Inquiry, La Trobe University

At least 21 people have been killed in the devastating floods across Queensland and New South Wales. Many have lost everything they own, in part due to vicious cycles of underinsurance.

The destruction will also worsen the already “beyond dire” housing crisis. Some will have no choice but to move elsewhere and leave behind existing social ties. Rebuilding will take years, and local communities may never be the same.

It is perhaps no wonder, then, that people turn to crowdfunding to help those affected.

But while the urge to create such crowdfunding campaigns, or donate to one, is understandable and admirable, it is worth asking: who can succeed in crowdfunding, and who gets left behind?




Read more:
The floods have killed at least 21 Australians. Adapting to a harsher climate is now a life-or-death matter


Even a federal MP passes the hat around

Already, over a thousand crowdfunding campaigns related to the floods can be found on GoFundMe alone, with more on Australia-based crowdfunding platforms like MyCause and Chuffed.

One campaign is federal MP Peter Dutton’s, raising funds for affected people in his electorate of Dickson.

Though perhaps well-meaning, this was woefully ill-considered. Among other complaints, observers expressed frustration a federal MP would be passing the hat around, rather than focusing his energy on pulling government levers to distribute aid.

For many, Dutton’s campaign reflected a wider lack of planning and urgency to mitigate extreme weather events, but it also reveals the everyday normalisation of crowdfunding.

What does it say about the role of government, the reciprocal duties of citizens, and how we can best support each other in difficult times, when no less than the federal defence minister turns to crowdfunding?

Flying choppers and rising anger

One of the most prevalent themes of these floods – perhaps even more evident than previous disasters – is the abandonment and rage felt by those affected, who have judged the federal and state response to be despairingly inadequate.

Compounding this despair are sentiments of distrust towards both federal and state governments. Perceptions of misplaced priorities are driving these suspicions, as evident in critiques of policing actions and ill-timed photo-ops by the ADF.

Evoking memories of government responses to the Black Summer bushfires, there are concerns the slick imagery of relief was coming before the relief itself.

Of course, there have been exhaustive and heroic efforts among SES volunteers, police, ADF personnel, and other emergency workers.

Also heartening has been the spontaneous co-operative efforts among isolated groups, along with the immense generosity of volunteer organisations.

Yet a sense of horror pervades in witnessing how much has been left to lay people, not only to provide shelter and source supplies (including crucial medications), but to conduct rescue operations in high-risk situations.

Daring community-led efforts to save people with privately-owned helicopters supported via crowdfunding is a remarkable example of courage and ingenuity, but also a damning indictment of our readiness to deal with extreme weather events.

Those on the ground are tired of being lauded for their resilience. They are resilient because they were given no alternative.

Who succeeds in crowdfunding? Who doesn’t?

Meanwhile, those looking on from afar understandably want to help, ideally with immediate impact.

A direct cash donation – along with an encouraging message – can offer a quick, secure, and impactful way of providing aid. And as journalist Jenna Price observed, starting a crowdfunding campaign on behalf of someone else can be a concrete action to undertake in otherwise helpless moments.

But most folks won’t have a compelling advocate like Price in their corner. As I’ve noted previously, social crowdfunding platforms are effectively markets for sympathy, where “the crowd” weighs claims to moral worthiness. Such mechanisms create few winners and many losers.

A wealth of research confirms that crowdfunding is often only effective for people with large social networks and the ability to craft an affecting appeal.

Most campaigns raise little, if anything at all, which can feel like an injurious measure of life’s worth. COVID only worsened these trends.

An over-reliance on crowdfunding may even exacerbate existing inequalities. Still, many have no choice but to plead their case.

As researcher Bhiamie Williamson observes, Aboriginal people are over-represented and under-resourced in the floods. There’s also a strong likelihood they will be under-represented in crowdfunding appeals (but here are two campaigns trying to ensure this does not happen).

So while crowdfunding can be a great method to support individuals directly, consider who may be missing from these platforms, and get behind those agencies looking to help them.




Read more:
Like many disasters in Australia, Aboriginal people are over-represented and under-resourced in the NSW floods


GoFundMe is not an answer to mass catastrophe

Recently, GoFundMe has become acutely self-conscious about its public perception as a place of desperate appeal, where only few succeed.

In response, the company has made clear it is not an alternative safety net, but rather a “complement” to existing institutional supports. This, in part, is why GoFundMe is more regularly partnering with charities and non-profits, such as Givit.

This strategic shift was apparent in a frank op-ed from GoFundMe CEO Tim Cadogan, who said “we can’t do your job for you” in urging the US government to offer more substantial relief during the height of COVID.

This, ultimately, is why Dutton’s GoFundMe campaign generated such public backlash. While well-meaning, an elected official rattling a donations tin after a disaster of this scale feels hopelessly inadequate, and a potent symbolic marker of our collective failure to enact mitigation strategies.

Crowdfunding cannot fix these issues. If anything, crowdfunding too easily individualises what are shared existential crises, distracting from our ability to properly reckon with them.




Read more:
Want to help people affected by floods? Here’s what to do – and what not to


The Conversation

Matthew Wade does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. ​Crowdfunding disaster relief offers hope in desperate times. But who gets left behind? – https://theconversation.com/crowdfunding-disaster-relief-offers-hope-in-desperate-times-but-who-gets-left-behind-178632

An ‘extraordinary collaboration’ – Watershed: The Death of Dr Duncan is a sensational and important work

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By William Peterson, Adjunct Associate Professor, Auckland University of Technology

Adelaide Festival/Andrew Beveridge

Review: Watershed: The Death of Dr Duncan, directed by Neil Armfield for the Adelaide Festival.

50 years ago this May, Dr George Ian Ogilvie Duncan, a law lecturer at the University of Adelaide, was assaulted by a group of men and thrown into the River Torrens. He drowned.

Dr Duncan was attacked at a well known gay “beat”: a place where men gathered to meet and have sex. In an era when even private sexual acts between two men were illegal, such beats were the only place for many to experience intimate contact with other men.

Though three police officers from city’s vice squad were widely believed to have been involved in the murder, no one was convicted. As the lyrics in this new production proclaim:

Your murderers walk through the world
[They] sleep through the night without shame.

In the wake of Dr Duncan’s death, public outcry eventually led to legal change. In 1975 South Australia became the first state to decriminalise male homosexual acts.

The complex historical, political and social context around Dr. Duncan’s death requires a suitably focused dramatic vehicle. Wisely, the musical form chosen was not opera or the musical, but the oratorio.

Traditionally associated with sacred content such as the Passion of Christ, an oratorio is a musical oration, unique in its capacity to mourn, proclaim and celebrate what comes from tragic loss.

One of the many triumphs of this production is its showing how this older form can tell a serious contemporary story using a range of musical styles while evoking a wide range of emotions.

This extraordinary collaboration between composer Joe Twist and co-lyricists Alana Valentine and Christos Tsiolkas, with set and costumes by Ailsa Paterson and choreography by Lewis Major, is superbly and sensitively staged by director Neil Armfield.

Watershed is a sensitively staged production.
Adelaide Festival/Andrew Beveridge

18 singers from the Adelaide Chamber Singers guide the audience through the story of Dr Duncan while evoking an era in which “coming out” becomes possible for greater numbers.

Two principal singers, Mark Oates and Pelham Andrews, deftly take on character voices that include Duncan, former South Australian premier Don Dunstan, and a police officer, lawyer and whistle blowing officer Mick O’Shea. Ainsley Melham enacts the “Lost Boy,” movingly guiding us through the work’s emotional heart.

The work opens with dancer (Mason Kelly) in a body harness falling in slow motion from the top of the stage into a pool of water. A kind of solemn horror is evoked, as the last moments of Dr Duncan’s life are evoked in a highly aestheticised way.

Truth in the lyrics

The lyrics draw from historian Tim Reeves’ research into Dr Duncan’s death, the initial police and Scotland Yard investigation, and the later trial and acquittal of two of the officers in 1988.

Valentine and Tsiolkas’ words evoke the emotions of time and place, and – early in the work – the dangerous world of furtive cruising.

One stands under the bridge and smokes his cigarette.

A golden-haired student walks into the toilet block.

Glancing neither left nor right/ he slips into the night.

We are reminded that others were dumped into the river as well. This is a world in which gay men are bashed for sport:

We thought faggots floated.
It was just a drunken lark.

Music and lyrics express the view that many did not see gay lives as worthy.

They’re legitimate prey.

The broader story is also one of class, as it took the murder of a university lecturer to evoke the outrage of Adelaide’s society mothers:

Surely we draw the line at murder for sport.
Surely we draw the line at police brutality.

At times the music takes on a liturgical quality, as in a mass, while at others, it opens into a raucous, celebratory mode, as when the 1975 legal victory decriminalising homosexual male sex is proclaimed. Lyrics capture the spirit of release from emotional and psychological bondage that many of us who came out in the 70s felt:

I’m overwhelmed in disbelief […] a criminal no more.

A sensational work

Under the musical direction of Christie Anderson, the small orchestra of strings, keyboard and percussion at times creates a big, oversized sound, generating the beating heart of the work.

This new work is the result of a hugely successful collaboration.
Adelaide Festival/Andrew Beveridge

Watershed’s success in capturing a time and place, in storytelling through song, is ultimately due to a hugely successful collaboration between diverse creative artists committed to serving the whole.

A new work as seamless as this requires discarding many “good ideas,” trusting that better ones will follow. This is a hard task, one that requires considerable generosity of spirit.

This is a truly sensational and – dare I say – important work, one that will hopefully see many future productions.

Season closed.

The Conversation

William Peterson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. An ‘extraordinary collaboration’ – Watershed: The Death of Dr Duncan is a sensational and important work – https://theconversation.com/an-extraordinary-collaboration-watershed-the-death-of-dr-duncan-is-a-sensational-and-important-work-175330

The floods have killed at least 21 Australians. Adapting to a harsher climate is now a life-or-death matter

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Barbara Norman, Professor of Urban & Regional Planning; Chair of the Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience Research Network (CCARRN), University of Canberra

The devastating floods in Queensland and New South Wales highlight, yet again, Australia’s failure to plan for natural disasters. As we’re seeing now in heartbreaking detail, everyday Australians bear the enormous cost of this inaction.

It’s too soon to say whether the current floods are directly linked to climate change. But we know such disasters are becoming more frequent and severe as the climate heats up.

In 2019, Australia ranked last out of 54 nations on its strategy to cope with climate change.

Australia had a chance to lift its game when it released a new climate resilience and adaptation strategy late last year. But the plan was weak and contained no funding or detailed action.

At the time of writing, the current floods had killed at least 21 people across two states and left many thousands homeless. Sydney suburbs were being evacuated amid warnings of more intense rain.

Governments must urgently invest in measures to help communities cope with extreme weather events. As we’re seeing right now, Australian lives depend on it.

man thrown furniture onto pile amid floodwaters
Natural disasters are becoming more frequent and severe as the climate heats up.
Jason O’Brien/AAP

Right here, right now

Last week’s report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was just one in a long line of warnings about the increasing risk of natural disasters as global warming worsens.

Australian governments are well aware of the problem. In fact, the federal government’s new National Climate Resilience and Adaptation Strategy, launched at the Glasgow climate conference in November last year, stated:

As the global temperature rises and other changes to the climate increase, Australia will face more frequent and severe events, such as extreme weather, fires and floods, and slow-onset events, such as changing rainfall patterns, ocean acidification and sea level rise.

The measures it contained were a start – but communities across Australia need much more, right now.

The strategy contained no new budget commitments or specific programs. It also lacked detailed actions on how to help urban and regional communities prepare for the impacts of climate change.

I have extensive experience in the public sector at all levels of government, in areas such as coastal, urban and regional planning, and climate change adaptation.

I also have first-hand experience of natural disasters. In the 2019-20 Black Summer bushfires my family lost a much-loved holiday home at Mallacoota in Victoria, which we’d held for four generations. I’ve also worked on the ground helping councils and communities prepare for and recover from disasters.




Read more:
The east coast rain seems endless. Where on Earth is all the water coming from?


woman with flooded home and car
Australian governments know the risks of future flooding.
Jason O’Brien/AAP

I’m deeply concerned at how badly prepared Australia is for current and future damage from climate change. Australia lacks even the most basic policies and plans, including:

  • no national coastal plan for coastal erosion and inundation

  • no national urban policy for climate-resilient development

  • no national requirement for climate change to be considered in urban and regional land-use plans

  • no funded national support program for urban and regional communities to adapt to current and future climate risk.

Australia was once a leader in climate adaptation. But this momentum has been lost over the past decade, as the climate wars played out in federal parliament.

And last week, it emerged the federal government has spent just a fraction of the A$4.8 billion emergency fund despite the worsening flood crisis.

This does little to reassure the public that our leaders are focused on helping communities recover from and adapt to natural disasters.

boy carries debris from house
The public wants reassurance that our leaders are focused on helping communities cope with natural disasters.
Jason O’Brien/AAP

The plan Australians deserve

So what must Australia do to get ready for the harsher future that awaits? Over many years, experts from a range of organisations and disciplines have put their minds to this question. These are some measures they’ve called for:

1. An integrated national climate action plan

This would involve funding and programs for state governments, local councils and industry, enabling them to work with communities to prepare for climate change.

2. A national coastal strategy

Coastal communities are especially vulnerable to storms, floods and bushfires which will worsen under climate change. Leading experts last year outlined the need for a climate change plan tailored to these communities. It would include a national agency to coordinate ocean and coastal governance across tiers of government.

3. Review urban planning legislation and city plans

Planning experts and others have called for climate change considered when making everyday decisions about the built environment. This would lead to more sustainable, pleasant and healthy urban and regional communities, as well as minimising disaster risks.

These decisions include where to locate new housing developments, as well as investing in green buildings and water-sensitive urban design.

And we also need to start conversations with communities at risk, such as those on floodplains or in bushfire-prone areas, to prepare city and town plans that incorporate future risks.

4. Stronger links between organisations

Greater cooperation is needed between emergency management, climate scientists and land-use planners, so they can effectively work together to prepare climate-resilient community plans. Better communication is also needed to ensure knowledge is shared and best-practice is maintained.

5. More money for research and community plans

Governments must fund the development of cutting-edge applied research to better understand and map climate risks. In addition, funding is needed for climate-resilient urban development and to support vulnerable communities through long-term adaptation plans.




Read more:
Like many disasters in Australia, Aboriginal people are over-represented and under-resourced in the NSW floods


pool collapsed onto beach after storm
Coastal communities are particularly vulnerable to storms and other extreme weather.
David Moir/AAP

Facing hard facts

In just a few years, many Australian communities have weathered a series of natural disasters overlaid by the COVID pandemic. They are exhausted, and deserve better.

Crucially, governments must be prepared to lead on emissions reduction to minimise, as much as we can, damage to Earth’s climate.

But we must also face the reality that natural disasters in Australia will get worse. Communities need practical, funded help now to ensure they survive and thrive as the climate warms.




Read more:
Australia has taken a new climate adaptation blueprint to Glasgow. It’s a good start but we need money and detail


The Conversation

Barbara Norman has received funding from the Australian Research Council, the Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC, the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility and the ACT Government. She is Chair of the Climate Change Adaptation & Resilience Research Network at University of Canberra, Deputy Chair of the Australian Coastal Society, a past National President and Life Member of the Planning Institute of Australia and a member of the Australian Labor Party.

ref. The floods have killed at least 21 Australians. Adapting to a harsher climate is now a life-or-death matter – https://theconversation.com/the-floods-have-killed-at-least-21-australians-adapting-to-a-harsher-climate-is-now-a-life-or-death-matter-178761

Can we resurrect the thylacine? Maybe, but it won’t help the global extinction crisis

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Corey J. A. Bradshaw, Matthew Flinders Professor of Global Ecology and Models Theme Leader for the ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, Flinders University

NFSA

Last week, researchers at the University of Melbourne announced that thylacines or Tasmanian tigers, the Australian marsupial predators extinct since the 1930s, could one day be ushered back to life.

The thylacine (Thylacinus cynocephalus), also known as the ‘Tasmanian tiger’ (it was neither Tasmanian, because it was once common in mainland Australia, nor was it related to the tiger), went extinct in Tasmania in the 1930s from persecution by farmers and habitat loss. Art by Eleanor (Nellie) Pease, University of Queensland.
Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage

The main reason for the optimism was the receipt of a A$5 million philanthropic donation to the research team behind the endeavour.

Advances in mapping the genome of the thylacine and its living relative the numbat have made the prospect of re-animating the species seem real. As an ecologist, I would personally relish the opportunity to see a living specimen.

The announcement led to some overhyped headlines about the imminent resurrection of the species. But the idea of “de-extinction” faces a variety of technical, ethical and ecological challenges. Critics (like myself) argue it diverts attention and resources from the urgent and achievable task of preventing still-living species from becoming extinct.

The rebirth of the bucardo

The idea of de-extinction goes back at least to the the creation of the San Diego Frozen Zoo in the early 1970s. This project aimed to freeze blood, DNA, tissue, cells, eggs and sperm from exotic and endangered species in the hope of one day recreating them.

The notion gained broad public attention with the first of the Jurassic Park films in 1993. The famous cloning of Dolly the sheep reported in 1996 created a sense that the necessary know-how wasn’t too far off.

The next technological leap came in 2008, with the cloning of a dead mouse that had been frozen at –20℃ for 16 years. If frozen individuals could be cloned, re-animation of a whole species seemed possible.

After this achievement, de-extinction began to look like a potential way to tackle the modern global extinction crisis.




Read more:
Worried about Earth’s future? Well, the outlook is worse than even scientists can grasp


Another notable advance came in 2009, when a subspecies of Pyrenean ibex known as the bucardo (Capra pyrenaica pyrenaica) which had been extinct since 2000 was cloned using frozen tissue.

Iberian ibex (Capra pyrenaica), or cabra montés in Spanish. Author: Juan Lacruz.
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cabra_mont%C3%A9s_4.jpg

The newborn bucardo died only a few minutes after birth. But it could no longer be argued that de-extinction was limited to the imagination.

Leaving no stone unturned

There are still some technical reasons to think genuine de-extinction might never be possible for many species. But even if these are overcome, the debate over pros and cons will continue.

Proponents argue that with the accelerating loss of species today, we must exploit all options. In isolation, de-extinction seems like a sensible tool to add to our anti-extinction kit.

But it’s far from that simple. Opponents have a long list of reasons why de-extinction won’t help to save biodiversity.

An expensive project

One of the main arguments against de-extinction is the huge expense required for research and technology. The A$5 million donated to the University of Melbourne is only a drop in the bucket.

Ecologists and conservation biologists argue the money would be better spent on initiatives to prevent extinction in the first place. These include purchasing land to conserve entire ecosystems, removing invasive species, restoring damaged habitats, and programs to breed and re-introduce threatened species.

On the other hand, if someone wants to spend the money on the tech, why not let it happen? After all, people waste a lot more on arguably sillier ventures.

However, modelling suggests spending limited resources on de-extinction could lead to net biodiversity loss.

Prevention is better than cure

Another common argument is that prevention is better than cure; we should put all our efforts into avoiding extinction in the first place.

If we believe we can somehow “fix extinction later”, we risk becoming ambivalent. Planning for conservation after the fact could be a dangerous road to apathy and higher net extinction rates.

‘Playing God’

Some have argued that the mere concept of de-extinction tests the limits of our ethical notions.

“Playing God” with the existence of whole species is inherently contentious. Research and implementation depend on value judgements, with those in power realising their values above those of others.

Will the voices of Indigenous peoples be heard when deciding on what species to resurrect? Will the dispossessed and poor also have a say?

There are also serious questions of animal welfare both along the pathway to de-extinction, as well as what happens to the organisms once created (including in captivity and after re-introduction to the wild).

A question of numbers

Perhaps the most important practical argument against de-extinction, but also the most overlooked, is that creating one or two animals won’t be nearly enough to bring back a species.

To have any real chance of surviving in the wild, introduced populations need to number in the hundreds, if not thousands. Could we make enough individuals to do this?

We would also need to increase the genetic diversity of the individuals via gene editing, as has been done in a limited way for a few species of crop plants.

But even so, we know most re-introductions of threatened species fail because of insufficient numbers.

Living space

Let’s say we ignore the technological challenges, the costs, the ethics, the lack of genetic diversity, and so on. Assume we can make new thylacines, mammoths, diprotodons, or sabre-tooth cats. Great. Now where do we put them?

Diprotodon optimum. The rhino-sized ‘wombat’ from Australia that died out over 40,000 years ago. Art by Eleanor (Nellie) Pease, University of Queensland.
Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage

Humans have destroyed at least half Earth’s vegetation since the agricultural revolution. We have altered almost two-thirds of Earth’s land surface to some degree.

As a result, about one million plant and animal species are threatened with extinction, and the total number of vertebrates in the wild has fallen by two-thirds since the 1970s.

Available living space is in short supply, especially for big species that require a lot of intact territory to survive.

Not to mention human-wildlife conflicts.

What happens if a major predator (such as the thylacine) is put back? Will pastoralists welcome them with open arms, or shoot them to extinction as they did last time?

From lions to bears, tigers to jaguars, and dingoes, predators the world over are still heavily persecuted because they compete with human enterprise.




Read more:
Will we hunt dingoes to the brink like the Tasmanian tiger?


The world has changed

If we did return extinct species to the places where they used to live, there is no guarantee they would survive there in modern conditions. Climate change and other processes mean that many past environmental states no longer exist.

Just because a mammoth lived in Siberia 20,000 years ago doesn’t mean it could necessarily do so today.

Diseases and invasions

There are already debates under way about moving threatened species to new habitats to increase their chances of survival. Opponents of this “assisted migration” point out the risk of spreading disease or parasites, or that the moved species will harm other species in their new home.

Now imagine you want to introduce a species that has long been extinct to an area. Would it spread disease or knock off other species?

On the flip side, most species rely on highly specialised microbiomes for survival. Recently resurrected species might be missing these organisms or succumb to the ones living in the area where they are released.

The debate isn’t going away

As technology continues to advance, we will likely see many leaps toward the holy grail of resurrecting extinct species. Chances are it will be a recently extinct species rather than something like a diprotodon, or dare I say, a dinosaur.

But even so, de-extinction is unlikely to offer any real value to the overall conservation of biodiversity.

Should we therefore continue to pursue de-extinction? The debate isn’t going to disappear anytime soon. As long as there are punters willing to fund the technological research, the pursuit will continue.

But even the most amazing technological advances are unlikely to help the catastrophic worldwide loss of biodiversity.

The Conversation

Corey J. A. Bradshaw receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

ref. Can we resurrect the thylacine? Maybe, but it won’t help the global extinction crisis – https://theconversation.com/can-we-resurrect-the-thylacine-maybe-but-it-wont-help-the-global-extinction-crisis-178425

Letting the people decide: should Australia hold more referendums?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Kildea, Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Law & Justice, UNSW Sydney

AAP/Darren Pateman

Last month the mayors of Queensland’s two biggest cities proposed a referendum on reintroducing daylight saving in the Sunshine State.

South Australians, meanwhile, have recently heard calls for popular votes on retail trading hours and recreational cannabis.

In our system, politicians pass laws and make decisions, but sometimes they first gauge public opinion by holding an advisory policy referendum or “plebiscite”. Most people think of these as rare events. The 2017 same-sex marriage survey was just the fourth national policy referendum in more than a century, compared to over 40 referendums on constitutional amendments.

But new research shows policy referendums have been far more frequent at the state and territory level. This rich and largely forgotten history fills out our understanding of Australian democracy. It also demonstrates the enduring appeal of giving the public a direct say on contentious issues.




Read more:
Explainer: the same-sex marriage plebiscite


Alcohol, daylight saving and other controversies

Australia’s states and two mainland territories have together held 56 referendums since 1901. About a dozen of these have put forward proposals for constitutional amendment. The remainder have concerned policy questions.

New South Wales has made most use of the referendum, having put 16 proposals, followed by Western Australia with 12. The Northern Territory’s 1998 poll on statehood remains its only one. Victoria has been least enthusiastic in recent times – its last referendum, on hotel closing hours, was in 1956.

About a third of all state and territory referendums have been about alcohol policy. The topic of hotel closing hours appeared frequently on ballot papers in the early 20th century. During the first world war, voters in three states backed 6pm closing at licensed premises. This choice proved consequential, giving rise to the infamous “six o’clock swill”.

The move to close pubs at 6pm gave rise to the ‘six o’clock swill’.
Museum of Lost Things

Some governments have asked voters about prohibition. In 1928, residents of the Federal Capital Territory (now the ACT) were asked if they wanted to allow the private sale of alcohol. The territory had been “dry” since its creation in 1911, prompting many to dash across the border to Queanbeyan to quench their thirst.

On polling day, a majority of electors voted to end prohibition. The timing could not have been better for the nation’s federal politicians, who just a year earlier had begun sitting in Canberra.

In more recent times, daylight saving has been put to voters more than any other issue. By the 1970s, many states had experience with daylight saving but the question was whether people wanted to keep it. Around 70% of electors voted ‘Yes’ to this in New South Wales (1976) and South Australia (1982).

Public support was never tested in Victoria and Tasmania. These states opted to keep daylight saving without holding a referendum.

But daylight saving has proved hugely divisive elsewhere. A 1992 Queensland referendum revealed a stark urban-rural divide on the issue. More than 60% of residents in the south-east of the state voted “Yes”, but opposition in regional and rural areas was enough to defeat it.

On the other side of the continent, Western Australian governments have asked voters about daylight saving four times, most recently in 2009. On each occasion the answer has been a decisive “No”.

State and territory electors have also voted on the teaching of scripture in schools, the location of a hydro-electricity dam on Tasmania’s Gordon River, and self-government for the ACT. More often than not, these polls have attracted significant media attention and been fiercely contested.

This year marks the 30th anniversary of Queensland’s failed 1992 referendum on daylight saving.
Dan Peled/AAP

High success rate

In Australia, a lot of commentary on federal referendums is about how difficult it is to pass them. Voter have approved just eight of 44 proposals (or 18%) for constitutional amendment. This has led some commentators to say Australians are naturally inclined to vote “No”.

The history of state and territory referendums challenges this notion. Referendums held by state and territory governments enjoy a much higher success rate.

Of the 41 state/territory referendums that have asked voters a Yes/No question, 19 (or 46%) have been carried. The success rate varies across policy and constitutional polls. About a third of policy referendums have passed, while voters have approved an impressive three-quarters of constitutional proposals.

The reasons for the different federal and state/territory success rates are complex and remain to be fully explored. But the sub-national referendum record bucks the conventional wisdom, showing that Australians are indeed willing to vote “Yes”.

This is worth keeping in mind as we consider the prospects of future federal referendums, including a possible vote on a First Nations Voice.




Read more:
Is Australia ready for another republic referendum? These consensus models could work


When should we hold policy referendums?

Given Australia’s long track record of using policy referendums, should we be holding more of them?

Australians are generally in favour of the idea. In research conducted for the Australian Constitutional Values Survey (ACVS) in 2017, my colleagues and I found more than 80% of respondents gave “in principle” support for direct democracy.

And referendums, when run well, can strengthen our democracy. They can provide opportunities for public deliberation on tough issues, give people a sense of contribution, and build trust and engagement.

Popular wisdom has it that Australians mostly vote ‘no’ on referendums. But research shows many have succeeded, including, most recently, the vote on marriage equality.
Joe Castro/AAP

But referendums are not suitable for all issues. The question is where we should draw the line. Four years after the marriage survey, this is a big philosophical question that remains unresolved.

Governments have held advisory polls on alcohol, daylight saving and same-sex marriage, so why not also on COVID rules, the date of Australia Day or – as Pauline Hanson has proposed – on immigration levels?

The case for a policy referendum is arguably stronger when the proposal concerns basic governing arrangements – think statehood or some electoral laws – or contentious social issues. It will be weaker when the proposal is highly technical or could endanger minority rights.

The ACVS suggests people’s attitudes towards direct democracy align with this approach to some degree. Respondents favoured a popular vote on some social issues (such as voluntary euthanasia) but preferred to leave more technical matters (such as emissions targets) to parliament.

We might also reason that policy referendums are best reserved for those issues that genuinely divide the parliament, or the parties, to the point of stalemate. This was arguably the case with same-sex marriage.

Basic principles are helpful, but it is not possible to be definitive about the circumstances in which policy referendums should or should not be held. It will always be a case-by-case judgment.

With that in mind, we could do more to promote debate about when policy referendums should be held. Currently the decision rests entirely with politicians, who tend to favour them only in narrow circumstances.

Parliaments in all jurisdictions could establish processes for individuals and groups to propose referendums on certain issues. Special committees could be tasked with considering these proposals and reporting back. A more radical idea would be to enable citizens to directly initiate referendums by gathering a certain number of signatures from voters.

In any event, there is scope for us to think more creatively about how we integrate policy referendums into our representative politics. And, as the state and territory record shows, this would build on a rich democratic practice that stretches back more than a century.

The Conversation

Paul Kildea has previously received funding from the Australian Research Council.

ref. Letting the people decide: should Australia hold more referendums? – https://theconversation.com/letting-the-people-decide-should-australia-hold-more-referendums-178145

I’m at home with COVID. When do I need to see a doctor? And what treatments are available?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tari Turner, Director, Evidence and Methods, National COVID-19 Clinical Evidence Taskforce; Associate Professor (Research), Cochrane Australia, School of Population Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Monash University

Shutterstock

Sorry to hear you tested positive.

Fortunately, for most people – and especially those who are vaccinated – COVID won’t lead to serious illness. Around 30% of people with COVID won’t have any symptoms.

People with mild and even moderate COVID are likely to be managed at home, rather than going to hospital.

In the past month, new drug treatments have become available for people with mild COVID who are at risk of more severe disease.

Symptoms to expect

Common symptoms include sore throat, cough, headache and fatigue.

Some people may also experience muscle pain, nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea, or loss of taste and smell.

You can treat these as you normally would, with paracetamol or ibuprofen, plenty of fluids, rest and patience.




Read more:
At home with COVID? 5 easy tips to help you breathe more easily


Some people are at greater risk of severe disease

Most people with COVID will only ever have mild symptoms, and will recover in one to two weeks without the need for any treatment.

Some people are at higher risk of developing serious illness from COVID because they are:

  • over 65 years, or over 50 years for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people
  • unvaccinated or partially vaccinated
  • pregnant.

And/or because they have one or more of the following underlying conditions:

  • lung disease, including chronic obstructive lung disease, asthma or bronchiectasis
  • heart disease
  • obesity (body mass index over 30 kg/m2)
  • diabetes
  • kidney failure
  • immunocompromising conditions (weakened immune system).
Woman in bed with COVID, wearing a mask, holding a mug of tea.
Some people are at risk of developing severe COVID.
Shutterstock

If you have one or more of these risk factors, talk to your GP, particularly if you’re not up-to-date with your COVID vaccinations.

Your GP might suggest you use a pulse oximeter to keep a track of the oxygen levels in your blood.

Falling oxygen levels (below 92%) can indicate you’re developing more serious illness, and might need to head to hospital for further treatment.

If you have severe trouble breathing or severe chest pain, call 000 for an ambulance to take you to hospital.

What treatments are available for mild COVID?

If you’re in a higher-risk group, your GP will also assess whether you might benefit from one of the new medications now available to treat COVID:

  • the oral antiviral tablets nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir (Paxlovid) or molnupiravir (Lagevrio)

  • the monoclonal antibody sotrovimab (Xevudy), which is given as a single injection at a hospital infusion centre.

These medications can reduce the risk of serious illness in people who aren’t vaccinated and have risk factors for severe disease.

Ritonavir and molnupiravir affect the way the virus replicates, while sotrovimab enhances the body’s immune response.

They may also benefit people who are vaccinated, but for whom vaccination is less likely to work because their immune systems are less effective. This includes people who have had an organ transplant and those with conditions requiring immune-suppressing treatment, such as rheumatoid arthritis, Crohn’s disease, multiple sclerosis and cancer, for those undergoing chemotherapy.




Read more:
Taking COVID pills at home sounds great. But we need to use them wisely or risk drug resistance and new variants


These medications need to be given within five days of symptoms developing, so it’s important you talk to your GP as soon as possible.

Your GP will carefully consider the benefits of these medications for you, given your health status and other factors, as well as the risks. Each of these drugs have potential side effects.

Carer talks to elderly person in wheelchair.
Medications can benefit people who are vaccinated but have weakened immune systems.
Shutterstock

Who shouldn’t have them?

These drugs aren’t suitable for everyone.

Paxlovid (ritonavir), for example, has potentially serious interactions with several common medications for high blood pressure, epilepsy, depression and others.

None of the oral antivirals are recommended in pregnancy.




Read more:
What is sotrovimab, the COVID drug the government has bought before being approved for use in Australia?


What else might a GP prescribe?

If you have mild or moderate COVID at home, and are at risk of developing serious illness, your GP might also suggest you take inhaled steroids.

Budesonide and ciclesonide are steroid medications which are also used in asthma.

Research suggests they may decrease the risk of deterioration from COVID and may accelerate recovery if started within 14 days of your first symptoms.

Woman consults a doctor via telehealth.
Talk to your GP as soon as possible, as many COVID medications need to be started within five days of developing symptoms.
Shutterstock

What happens if you get worse?

Most people with mild COVID recover without any treatment, but if your symptoms start getting worse, or your blood oxygen levels start to fall, your GP might decide it’s best for you to head to hospital where other treatment options are available.

In hospital, you might be given drugs such as:

  • remdesivir (an intravenous antiviral drug) which affects the way the virus replicates

  • dexamethasone, baricitinib or tocilizumab. These powerful anti-inflammatory drugs reduce the damaging effects the body’s inflammatory response can have on the lungs.

You may also need support for your breathing.

Can I take my normal medications?

In most cases, you can and should continue to take your existing medications for conditions such as asthma, diabetes or high blood pressure.

Talk to your doctor if you are taking oral menopause hormonal therapies (MHT, also sometimes called hormone replacement therapy or HRT). Your doctor may suggest that you stop these until you have recovered. Both severe COVID and some forms of menopause hormonal therapies can increase the risk of developing blood clots.

New treatments don’t replace vaccination

New treatments for COVID are a welcome addition, especially for those who can’t be vaccinated or for whom vaccination is unlikely to be effective.

The COVID research pipeline is expected to deliver more new treatments for COVID in 2022 and the National COVID-19 Clinical Evidence Taskforce will review this new research and update our guidance as the evidence emerges.

However vaccination remains the best form of defence against serious disease and death for COVID.

The Conversation

Tari Turner receives funding from the Australian Government Department of Health to support the work of the National COVID-19 Clinical Evidence Taskforce.

Bridget Barber is affiliated with the National COVID-19 Clinical Evidence Taskforce.

Josh Davis receives salary funding (career development fellowship) and project funding (SNAP trial grant) from the NHMRC. He is affiliated with the National COVID-19 Clinical Evidence Taskforce.

Executive Director of the National COVID-19 Clinical Evidence Taskforce

ref. I’m at home with COVID. When do I need to see a doctor? And what treatments are available? – https://theconversation.com/im-at-home-with-covid-when-do-i-need-to-see-a-doctor-and-what-treatments-are-available-176884

Lessons from the pandemic on fairer and more caring uni teaching and learning

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sally Baker, Senior Lecturer, School of Education, UNSW Sydney

Shutterstock

The pandemic forced universities to rush out remote delivery of their courses online. Now we have had time to take stock of the impacts. Our newly published Australia-wide research investigated the challenges and opportunities of remote delivery for culturally and linguistically diverse migrant and refugee (CALDMR) students and university staff.

We identified many changes to teaching and learning that we should strive to keep. Students and teachers told us they got to know each other on a more personal, human level. Being essentially inside each other’s homes led to higher levels of care and engagement.

But the disruptions of COVID also highlighted existing educational disadvantage caused by “the digital divide”. Online delivery made it worse for equity cohorts, especially refugee students. As one student recalled:

“[…] at one point my laptop stopped working, and then I couldn’t do Zoom meetings. That was a bit of an issue, and then co-ordinating that with the university.”

A lecturer told us:

“[…] there’s that extra language barrier. I can’t see their confusion like I could see it in person.”




Read more:
Trauma, racism and unrealistic expectations mean African refugees are less likely to get into Australian unis


While looking to return to in-person learning, universities must still plan for possible disruptions in 2022. However, after two years of “pivoting” to emergency remote delivery, the time is right to proactively prepare for equitable online engagement.

We need to embed equity in our framing of teaching and learning to ensure we aren’t leaving groups of students behind.




Read more:
Fair access to university depends on much more than making students ‘job-ready’


Policies offered support but left gaps

Our research explored the impacts of government and institutional policies and of the move online.

We reviewed national, state and institutional policy statements in the year to March 2021. A range of financial supports from governments and universities provided a financial lifeline for many students.

However, our findings highlight the need to provide other resources to support culturally and linguistically diverse students in their studies.

Limited attention was paid to planning for equity in the sudden shift online. There was nothing that explicitly targeted the issues that migrant and refugee students faced, including limited access to technology and wi-fi.

Care and engagement came to the fore

COVID also exposed the stresses and workloads for staff who had to respond to CALDMR students’ needs during remote learning. They include lecturers and tutors, student-facing support staff (equity officers, student advisers, learning advisers, counsellors) and educational designers, who support teaching and learning design and delivery. One lecturer told us:

“I just didn’t have any time or space to be able to make big changes to my approach. I felt really pressured […] stressed […] definitely a question of survival.”

Despite the negative aspects, our research captured hopeful changes, which benefited culturally and linguistically diverse students in particular.

Emergency remote delivery led to a greater focus on the importance of more caring and engaged teaching and learning practices. Educators gained an increased awareness of students’ complex lives and needs.

Student sitting in kitchen as he chats online with teacher
Being essentially inside each other’s homes led to higher levels of care and engagement.
Shutterstock

However, this came at a cost for these educators:

“I felt to give students a good experience I really had to over-service them – drop-in sessions [on Zoom] […] play the [pre-recorded] lecture and sit on Zoom and answer everyone’s questions over the chat box […]”




Read more:
Our uni teachers were already among the world’s most stressed. COVID and student feedback have just made things worse


3 recommendations

Paying attention to students’ needs in ways that are reasonable for educators requires careful planning. Based on the experiences of the past two years, we make three recommendations for sustaining the gains in equitable student learning.

Recommendation 1

Course delivery must be more flexible.

Culturally and linguistically diverse students need time and space to manage the linguistic load of their studies. But many migrant and refugee students also have work and caring responsibilities. That leaves them with less time to engage with course materials.

One support staff member told us:

“There were quite conflicting activities that they had […] Some of my younger students really struggled. I’m talking 18-to-20-year-olds with family responsibilities, not their own families, but looking after their parents because they were home, or they got thrown into domestic duties.”

Hence the need to plan online or hybrid instruction that allows students to review learning materials at their own pace and enables meaningful interactions to build community.




Read more:
COVID has changed students’ needs and expectations. How do universities respond?


Recommendation 2

Design online learning with CALDMR students in mind.

Successful and equitable online education is not simply a matter of uploading materials used in face-to-face instruction. Careful planning is needed to maximise interaction and support within the digital space.

This means taking care not to assume students have equal access to linguistic and cultural resources, including digital literacy. One lecturer said:

“A lot of [CALDMR] students […] often, in the class, you could tell that they weren’t getting something. You can see. I miss that with the online. […] A lot of them are probably falling through the cracks because they don’t feel they could ask.”

Explicit planning and modelling of literacy requirements – linguistic, academic and digital – will help ensure online learning is accessible and engaging for all students.

Recommendation 3

Support educators to embed inclusive practices in their teaching and engagement with students.

Universities need to invest in staff professional development, including casual staff. Around 90% of the educators in our study indicated they want to learn more about supporting CALDMR students.

Universities should also invest in dedicated liaison staff to help these students navigate university systems and assessment requirements. A developer involved in moving teaching online told us:

“It’ll be good to have some greater understanding of their needs and ways to address them in teaching and learning, assessment design and emotional well-being.”




Read more:
5 tips on how unis can do more to design online learning that works for all students


Let’s build on the lessons of the pandemic

The disruptions of the pandemic added to existing educational inequalities. Left unaddressed, students from disadvantaged backgrounds, such as refugees, are more likely to miss out on learning.

However, the shift to online delivery has also highlighted opportunities for sector-wide commitment to teaching and learning practices that are more responsive to issues of equity.

The Conversation

Sally Baker works for the University of New South Wales. She received funds from the National Centre for Student Equity in Higher Education for this project, and has previously received funds from the NSW Department of Education, the Department of Education, and the (former) Office of Learning and Teaching. Sally is the Chair of the Refugee Education Special Interest Group (www.refugee-education.org)

Joel Anderson works for Australian Catholic University and the Australian Research Centre in Sex, Health and Society at La Trobe University. He received funding from the National Centre for Student Equity in Higher Education for this project. Joel is a member of the Refugee Education Special Interest Group (www.refugee-education.org).

Lisa Hartley works for Curtin University’s Centre for Human Rights Education. She received funds from the National Centre for Student Equity and Higher Education for this project, and has previously received funding from the Australian Research Council and the (former) Office of Learning and Teaching. Lisa is a member of the Refugee Education Special Interest Group (www.refugee-education.org).

Rachel Burke works for the University of Newcastle. She has received funds from the National Centre for Student Equity in Higher Education (NCSEHE) for this project, and has previously received funding from Perpetual Impact. She is a steering committee member of the Refugee Education Special Interest Group (RESIG) and convenes the CALD Education Special Interest Group of the Australian Association of Research in Education (AARE).

Tebeje Molla works for Deakin University. He receives funding from the National Centre for Student Equity in Higher Education for this project and has previously received funds from the Australian Research Council. Tebeje has published on refugee education and is a member of the Refugee Education Special Interest Group (www.refugee-education.org)

ref. Lessons from the pandemic on fairer and more caring uni teaching and learning – https://theconversation.com/lessons-from-the-pandemic-on-fairer-and-more-caring-uni-teaching-and-learning-178292

Revisiting Shane Warne: The Musical – this brilliant show should be considered an Aussie classic

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mara Davis, PhD candidate, UNSW Sydney

In response to the tragic death of Shane Warne last week, actor and composer Eddie Perfect took to Facebook to express his shock and surprise at Warne’s sudden passing.

“I just don’t want to say goodbye – there was so much more life to come,” he wrote.

Before Perfect was the composer for the Tony award nominated Broadway musical Beetlejuice, his first full-length musical was something much closer to home: Shane Warne: The Musical.

The musical started as a joke. In 2005, Perfect was on tour performing in The Big Con with Max Gillies and kept seeing Warne’s name all over the newspapers. He made an offhand comment in a phone call to his manager, Michael Lynch, that someone should write a musical about the cricketer.

To his great surprise, Lynch (a great cricket fan) told him to go for it.

The resulting musical is an overwhelmingly faithful rendering of Warne’s life, staging both his triumphs and his downfalls.

It took Perfect three years to write the show, in which he read every book about Warne he could find (he joked in his Facebook post he has a master’s degree in Warney) before a full production opened in Melbourne’s Athenaeum Theatre in December 2008.

In 2009, it went on tour, playing seasons at the Regal Theatre in Perth and the Enmore Theatre in Sydney.

While it was critically acclaimed, it did not perform as well as expected at the box office and closed early.

Five years later, in 2013, the musical was revised and presented in a revamped concert version. This iteration added new material covering Warne’s retirement from international cricket, his dramatic weight loss and his high profile relationship with the actress Elizabeth Hurley.

While the musical may have started as a joke, in style and substance it is anything but. It deserves to be considered an Australian musical theatre classic.




Read more:
Vale Shane Warne: a cricketing genius who lived a life of ‘no regrets’


A repertory of our national characters

Shane Warne: The Musical is about more than just Shane Warne.

It is about Australia, and why we found Warne to be such a captivating figure.

It is about how Warne was, on the one hand, a lionised national sporting hero, and on the other, a disappointingly fallible human being.

It shows how Warne embodied the repertory of our national characters: underdog, everyman, outlaw and tall poppy.

The finger snapping What an SMS I’m In, staged while shopping with then-wife Simone in the supermarket, and in which the lyrics rhyme “Warney” with “horny” is a hilariously comic take on his extramarital indiscretions.

But the musical also treats Warne with great empathy and nuance. Perfect’s moving rendering of Warne’s relationship with the late Terry Jenner is a tender portrayal of the coach-player dynamic.

Warne’s bowling style has often been compared to fine arts like poetry or classical music. These sport-as-art metaphors are explored in That Ball which centres on the moment Warne bowled the ball of the century.

A slow, august ballad in the vein of the late Stephen Sondheim, the song recalls the process by which a situation is transformed into an event of significance: that shot, that race, that ball.

The lyrics describe the feeling of watching history being made: “someone was talking, I said ‘shut up one sec!’ and the hairs stood up on the back of my neck.”

Told from the perspective of ordinary spectators, That Ball represents the profound act of such a sporting achievement. What it means for individuals, for a nation, how it lingers in collective memory: “I remember that ball like it was yesterday and never will forget.”

Celebrating the larrikin

Warne was initially not sold on the idea of a musical about him, and Perfect tried, through the media, to stress the musical was not going to be a merciless attack on the cricketer.

Eventually, these arguments cut through. Warne attended the opening night performance and – ever the media personality – came up on stage to bow with the cast after the curtain call.

He even published a positive review which admitted he had felt nervous sitting in the audience (“More edgy, even, than facing Pakistani quickie Shoaib Akhtar on a green, seaming deck, I reckon”) but the production had won him over by the end:

I think Eddie and his team have written the musical in a respectful and sympathetic way, and that they have captured my fun, larrikin side.

In light of Warne’s untimely passing, revisiting Shane Warne: The Musical is a funny, touching, clever, and joyous way to honour his legacy. It is well overdue for another production.




Read more:
At once an open book and a master of disguise, Shane Warne’s allure extended far beyond the cricket pitch


The Conversation

Mara’s doctoral work is supported by an Australian Government Research Training Program (RTP) Domestic Scholarship.

ref. Revisiting Shane Warne: The Musical – this brilliant show should be considered an Aussie classic – https://theconversation.com/revisiting-shane-warne-the-musical-this-brilliant-show-should-be-considered-an-aussie-classic-178644

No, catching Omicron is not ‘inevitable’ – here’s why we should all still avoid the virus

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Welch, Senior Lecturer, University of Auckland

Fiona Goodall/Getty Images

Aotearoa New Zealand has entered new COVID territory, characterised by high vaccination rates but also the rapid spread of the Omicron variant and rising numbers of hospitalisations.

As we approach the peak of this wave, some have suggested it would be better to drop remaining public health measures, let the infection rip through our population and accept nearly all of us will get infected very soon. This is unwise for many reasons.

First, simple measures we can all take will ensure that even in this big wave of infections, most of us can still avoid getting infected. Even if you share a household with an infected person, international studies show the risk of catching the virus is somewhere between 15% and 50%.

Second, not all infections are equal.

The Delta variant is still circulating and we can’t presume all infections are Omicron. While less virulent than Delta, Omicron can nevertheless cause severe disease and death, particularly among the unvaccinated who make up 3% of the vaccine-eligible population but 19.4% of hospitalisations.

There are still many vulnerable people in the community we can protect by limiting the spread of the virus and ensuring they are less likely to encounter it.

Another reason to limit potentially infectious contact is that infection is more likely if an individual is exposed to a higher initial dose of the virus. An infection avoided or delayed is always a win as we move closer to even more effective vaccines and improved medical treatments for COVID.




Read more:
How does Omicron compare with Delta? Here’s what we know about infectiousness, symptoms, severity and vaccine protection


Why outbreaks come in waves

The reason we get large wave-like outbreaks that rise and fall quickly is because the virus becomes less able to find people to infect as the outbreak progresses. Crucially, this happens before everyone is infected.

This is related to the R number epidemiologists talk about. R0 is the average number of people an infectious person infects at the start of an outbreak. When R is greater than one, the number of cases increases, when it is below one, it decreases.

As the outbreak proceeds, more and more people get infected and recover. They cannot immediately be reinfected. For example, if R is 2 at the start of an outbreak, meaning each case on average transmits to two others, by the time half of the population has been infected and has recovered, the virus will only transmit to one other.

That is because it “tries” to infect two people but finds that, on average, one has already recovered and cannot be reinfected. In this example, the R number is now effectively 1 and infections will start to fall.

Omicron’s rapid spread

Despite New Zealand’s high vaccination rates, Omicron is spreading quickly here, as it has in other countries. There are many elements to this.

Omicron is good at avoiding immunity generated by vaccination and previous infection. We have very high rates of first and second doses, but fewer than 60% have received boosters, and we have a very short history of exposure to natural infection.

These characteristics make us prone to a rapid and large outbreak of Omicron. Further, vaccinations, including boosters, are very good at preventing illness, hospitalisation and death, but they don’t prevent infection and transmission quite as well.




Read more:
NZ’s confirmed COVID case numbers are rising fast, but total infections are likely much higher – here’s why


This means that even in a highly vaccinated population, you can still get high levels of transmission and infection, but the rates of illness and severe complications will be much lower.

Relaxation of public health measures and the impact of superspreader events may also be contributing to the current picture. Importantly, while the number of infections has increased dramatically with Omicron, the proportion of these that result in severe complications is much lower than during the earlier Delta outbreak.

Our behaviour helps determine the size of the wave

The earlier cases start to fall, the smaller the overall outbreak will be. If R is 2 at the start of an outbreak, a basic model says around 80% of the population will be infected. If the initial R number can be reduced to 1.5, only 58% of the population get infected.

A graph showing the percentage of the population infected over the course of a closed outbreak for different values of R0.
The percentage of the population infected over the course of a closed outbreak for different values of R0.
Calculated using the method described by Ottar N. Bjørnstad in Epidemics: Models and Data Using R, Author provided

Luckily we exert some control over the R number. Measures like mask wearing, good use of ventilation, self-isolation when symptomatic or after a positive test, vaccination, and avoiding crowded indoor areas all work to reduce R and the total number of people who will get infected. Local modeling suggests that depending on how well we adopt these measures, somewhere between 25% and 60% of the population are likely to be infected in this outbreak.

Even when sharing the same household as a case, it is not inevitable everyone else will get infected. Studies from the UK, Denmark and South Korea have all looked at the probability of susceptible people in the same household as a positive case getting infected.

They found with Omicron, this probability is somewhere between 15% and 50%. In other words, you still have a better than even chance of avoiding infection through your infectious housemate.

All the measures that work generally to reduce spread also work within a household. Mask up inside, get air flowing through, where possible move the infected household member into their own bedroom and bathroom, and practice good basic hygiene.

The relationship between the initial exposure dose, infection and disease severity is a property of many infectious diseases, including respiratory diseases in humans and other animals.

A recent review concluded that while there is good evidence of a direct relationship between the SARS-CoV-2 virus dose and infection in humans, evidence for a link between dose and severity is lacking, despite some evidence from animal models.

COVID severity is most likely driven by factors other than the initial exposure dose. These include the virus variant and host factors such as age or the presence of some pre-existing health conditions.

All the standard public and personal health measures will help us avoid getting infected and reduce transmission to the more vulnerable, thereby reducing the number of people with severe illnesses.

The Conversation

David Welch has received funding from MBIE, MoH and HRC.

Nigel French is affiliated with Massey University and has received funding from MBIE and HRC.

ref. No, catching Omicron is not ‘inevitable’ – here’s why we should all still avoid the virus – https://theconversation.com/no-catching-omicron-is-not-inevitable-heres-why-we-should-all-still-avoid-the-virus-178276

How you can talk to your toddler to safeguard their well-being when they grow into a teenager

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elaine Reese, Professor of Psychology, University of Otago

Shutterstock/fizkes

As parents, we all hope our teens will be healthy and happy.

Our new research shows one way to help is to have positive conversations with children about everyday events as soon as they start to talk.

Most teens experience a dip in their well-being. This adolescent malaise is not new. Over a century ago, child psychologist G. Stanley Hall wrote of the “reflectiveness” in adolescence that “often leads to self-criticism and consciousness that may be morbid”.

But this pattern has intensified in recent years all around the world, including in New Zealand, exacerbated by the pandemic.

For some teens, this dip in happiness becomes a precipitous drop. Serious mental health problems can emerge for the first time in adolescence.

Led by clinical psychologist Claire Mitchell, our research shows that parents can act earlier in their children’s lives to prevent this dip from becoming a dramatic drop-off in well-being.




Read more:
9 ways to support your teen’s mental health as restrictions ease


Talking together from toddlerhood

Our research is based on a longitudinal study of adolescents whose mothers had received special coaching when their children were toddlers in “elaborative reminiscing” — rich and validating conversations about past events — grew up to tell more coherent stories about turning points in their lives. These adolescents also reported fewer symptoms of depression and anxiety than adolescents whose mothers had simply conversed with their toddlers as usual.

The study investigated the life stories and well-being of 93 of the 115 adolescents whose mothers had originally participated in a randomised controlled trial 14 years earlier, when the adolescents were toddlers (1.5 years old). See my book [Tell Me a Story: Sharing Stories to Enrich Your Child’s Life] for more details on the original study.

Over the following year (to age 2.5 years), researchers coached one group of mothers to converse with their children about everyday memories in a detailed and affirmative way. A control group of mothers simply talked to their toddlers as they normally would. At age 15, adolescents narrated turning points from their lives that we coded for coherence. They also reported on their well-being and personality traits.

Two teenagers walking along a beach.
Teenagers whose parents talked to them about everyday memories when they were toddlers show more insight into how major life events shape them.
Shutterstock/Hot Pixels Photography

The adolescents whose mothers had participated in the earlier coaching sessions told narratives about life’s turning points (such as parental divorce or cyber-bullying) with more insight into how the experience had shaped them as people. These insights are a type of eudaimonic well-being — contentment achieved through the ability to live a meaningful life.

Adolescents in the coaching group also reported better hedonic well-being in the form of lower levels of depressive and anxious symptoms. These findings remained strong even after controlling for adolescents’ personality traits, an established contributor to their well-being.

Our findings suggest brief coaching sessions with parents early in children’s lives can have enduring benefits, both for the way adolescents process and talk about difficult life events and for their well-being.




Read more:
1 in 2 primary-aged kids have strong connections to nature, but this drops off in teenage years. Here’s how to reverse the trend


An earlier finding from this same study showed mothers in the coaching group continued to have more elaborative reminiscing conversations with their children at age 11, the cusp of adolescence. The conversation techniques that we taught parents of toddlers are enjoyable and easy to use, which may be why parents kept using them as their children grew older.

How to talk about the past with toddlers

It’s not easy to talk with a toddler. Here are the tips we taught parents in our study.

1. Select events your toddler finds interesting

The best events are those your child brings up spontaneously. For example, a toddler might say “baa baa” when you’re driving past a farm, referring to a farm visit the previous week.

2. Draw your toddler in with what, where, who, when questions

Each question, such as “what did you see at the farm?”, can add a bit more detail. It’s good to pause after a question to give your child time to respond: “Baa baa.”

3. Respond warmly and enthusiastically to your toddler

Praise your child’s responses: “Little baby lamb. Clever girl!”
And follow up with related questions: “What did you do with the lambs?”

4. If your toddler doesn’t respond

To keep the conversation going, rephrase your question with new information, for example: “What did you give to the lambs?” After a pause, you can ask: “Did you give them a bottle?”

5. Most of all, keep it fun

End the conversation when your toddler loses interest. As your child gets older, you can adapt these same techniques to talk about more significant topics.

By practising this technique early, parents and their young children develop healthy interactions from the beginning and start sharing stories and memories to protect their teenagers’ future well-being. As my collaborator Claire Mitchell says:

As a parent of a toddler myself, I can confirm that these elaborative reminiscing techniques are enjoyable and easy to learn. Our study helps pave the way for future work with parents of young children to promote healthy interactions from the beginning that could have enduring benefits.

The Conversation

Elaine Reese has received funding from the Marsden Fund of the Royal Society Te Apārangi.

ref. How you can talk to your toddler to safeguard their well-being when they grow into a teenager – https://theconversation.com/how-you-can-talk-to-your-toddler-to-safeguard-their-well-being-when-they-grow-into-a-teenager-177536

US warns against travel to NZ due to rising level of covid-19 cases

RNZ News

The United States Centre for Disease Control and Prevention has raised its travel advisory warning on travel to New Zealand.

The CDC updated its travel warning to “level four: very high” for travel to New Zealand due to covid-19 cases, of which today alone there was 23,894 new cases recorded.

According to the Reuters’ Covid-19 tracker, covid-19 infections are decreasing in United States, with 49,611 new infections reported on average each day.

The CDC states if people must travel to New Zealand they should ensure they are up-to-date with their covid-19 vaccinations.

The health warnings are determined by the “level of covid-19 in the country or other special considerations”.

Many countries have been rated with a level four risk warning by the CDC, including Australia. Hong Kong and Thailand were also added to the list today.

Travel restrictions were eased in New Zealand from last week, with returnees now not required to self-isolate upon arrival.

Record 23,894 new cases
The Ministry of Health reported a record 23,894 new cases of covid-19 today, with 9881 in Auckland.

In addition there are 756 people in hospital with covid-19 and 16 of those are in ICU. The seven-day rolling average of community cases is 18,669, up from yesterday.

Of the new cases, 596 were confirmed via PCR testing and 23,298 via rapid antigen tests (RATs).

At the covid-19 update today, Director of Public Health Dr Caroline McElnay said the actual number of cases in the community was expected to be considerably higher, but that was hard to gauge when using RAT as the primary test.

That was why the ministry was focusing on hospitalisations, McElnay said.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

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Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Elect me and I’ll govern like Bob Hawke: Albanese

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Anthony Albanese will declare he would govern on the Hawke model of consensus, in a Wednesday economic speech that also directs a strong pitch to business.

“If Labor is successful in the coming federal election, I will take my lead from Bob Hawke and his successor Paul Keating,” Albanese will tell the Australian Financial Review’s business summit.

“I want to bring Australians together to build a better future.”

“After nearly a decade of division and policy inertia under the Liberals and Nationals, collaboration lights our way forward,” the opposition leader says in his speech, released ahead of delivery.

“We must rediscover the spirit of consensus […] Bob Hawke used to bring together governments, trade unions, businesses and civil society around their shared aims of growth and job creation.

“He brokered reforms that yielded benefits for all parties – not just better wages for workers, but stronger profits for businesses, along with the introduction of landmark reforms adding to the social dividend, such as Medicare and universal superannuation.”

Albanese says he and his Labor team have worked over the past three years with business “to hear your concerns, consider your suggestions and establish relationships based on trust and respect.

“Following Bob Hawke’s example, I’ve ensured that all of our economic policies target issues that for government, business and trade unions, are shared interests. Productivity. Growth. Jobs.

“I want to lead a government that works across the community,” Albanese says. “Business needs a government that facilitates private sector investment and activity.”

Without spelling it out directly, Albanese is again highlighting a contrast between his approach and Bill Shorten’s assault on the “top end of town” before the last election.

Albanese says the pandemic “has reminded us there is a role for government intervention in the economy to advance the national interest”.

But Scott Morrison, speaking at the summit on Tuesday, rejected the argument COVID had made a case for a greater government role.

Morrison said Australia’s nearly three decades of uninterrupted growth before the pandemic was unmatched by other advanced economies, in duration and growth rate.

“And that’s why, frankly, I’ve never really been in the, and caught up in the hoopla of the, ‘Build Back Better’ camp, that opportunistically sees the post-COVID recovery as some opportunity to replace our market-based, business-led growth economic system, with a government-centred re-imagination of global capitalism.

“Our model of economic management and business-led economic growth has been world class.

“Capitalism didn’t break. The world got hit by a global pandemic.

“And that is why we have championed in every international forum, especially the G20, for business-led growth strategies,” Morrison said.

The government was now was “normalising” fiscal settings and had “handed the reins of our economy back to the private sector, back for business-led growth,” he said.

Morrison said a Labor government, with the Greens, “would seek to snatch the reins back”.

The PM said the world had become “a more uncertain, less stable and more dangerous place.

“The economic agendas are just not re-heats from the 1990s. We need to address the challenge that exists in this day, in this age.

“And it’s important to stress that strong national security and genuine economic security, they go hand-in-hand. They are two sides of the same coin. And this drives our outlook.”

Meanwhile the Essential poll, released Tuesday, found only 32% thought the federal government deserved to be reelected while 48% said it was time to give someone else a go.

The Conversation

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Elect me and I’ll govern like Bob Hawke: Albanese – https://theconversation.com/elect-me-and-ill-govern-like-bob-hawke-albanese-178780

Word from The Hill: Subs, floods and people saying it’s ‘time to give someone else a go’

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan now includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation politics team.

This week Michelle and politics + society editor Amanda Dunn talk about the government’s proposal for a new east coast submarine base and the politics of that in an election Scott Morrison wants to frame around national security.

They also discuss the blame fall-out from the devastating floods, and the latest Essential poll finding that nearly half the electorate (48%) think it’s “time to give someone else a go” at governing federally.

The Conversation

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Word from The Hill: Subs, floods and people saying it’s ‘time to give someone else a go’ – https://theconversation.com/word-from-the-hill-subs-floods-and-people-saying-its-time-to-give-someone-else-a-go-178779

Under-resourced and undermined: as floods hit south-west Sydney, our research shows councils aren’t prepared

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicky Morrison, Professor of Planning, Western Sydney University

Thousands of people in south-western Sydney have been ordered to evacuate as extreme rain pummels the region and floodwaters rise rapidly. The downpour is expected to continue for days.

This region, particularly Western Sydney, is no stranger to climate-related disasters. Rain is falling on catchments already sodden from severe floods in March last year. Western Sydney is also vulnerable to extreme heat, and is 8-10℃ hotter than east Sydney during heatwaves.

Local councils are the level of government closest to communities and help determine how well regions withstand disasters like floods. But are councils prepared for the more frequent and intense disasters that climate change brings?

According to our new research on eight Western Sydney councils, the answer is no. We find it’s not easy to deliver action on the ground as these councils try to balance competing priorities in urban development, with limited resources and stretched budgets.

Balancing responsibilities

When disasters such as floods strike, state and territory governments can declare a state of emergency and create evacuation orders.

But local councils are in a central position to increase community resilience and communicate directly with locals. This includes flood mapping, restricting certain developments near high-risk areas, and making evacuation routes known to residents.

Clearly distinguishing these responsibilities [is crucial for] Western Sydney, which is one of Australia’s fastest growing regionsand feels the destructive impacts of climate change intensely.




Read more:
Western Sydney will swelter through 46 days per year over 35°C by 2090, unless emissions drop significantly


Western Sydney councils are currently dealing with back-to-back disasters in a continual crisis management cycle. At the same time, they’re tasked with pushing forward the NSW government’s housing and infrastructure development targets, which includes building almost 185,000 houses between 2016 and 2036.

Coupled with a lack of staff and funding, do they really have the capacity to cope with all this?

Western Sydney is one of Australia’s fastest growing regions.
Shutterstock

What we found

We analysed 150 local government policies and planning documents, as well as local health district strategies. We also conducted 22 stakeholder interviews across the eight Western Sydney councils.

The good news is each council recognises the importance of addressing climate risk, and demonstrates a strong commitment to implementing sustainability, climate and resilience strategies. While action to mitigate climate change impacts on health and well-being is happening, the strategies are at very early stages.

According to our interviews, there’s a strong desire to do more, and all councils agree emergency preparedness and recovery work must take priority. While a NSW resilience program aims to address this, it doesn’t necessarily align with the unique risks each local community faces.




Read more:
The east coast rain seems endless. Where on Earth is all the water coming from?


Acting quickly to move from planning to implementing strategies – such as redesigning buildings to match climate predictions – just isn’t in their capacity. And indeed, councils could not achieve this in time to mitigate the next climate crisis event.

Despite councils receiving money from the NSW government’s disaster assistance funding, they can struggle to pay for recovery from events like flooding. It can take weeks, months, or even years to get local communities back on their feet.

As the councils explained to us, this means already limited funds get pulled away from other work, such as long-term sustainability goals, or simply important day-to-day provisions.

Hawkesbury, Fairfield and Penrith city councils are especially challenged. They experienced the worst flooding in 50 years last March and now face even greater flood alert warnings at Hawkesbury-Nepean River.

State government undermines local decisions

Despite these difficulties, councils consistently told us that the biggest barrier to delivering sustainable, resilient, climate-ready development across Western Sydney was NSW state planning directives.

In the planning system, state policies override local plans and policies. This means local councils often struggle to implement their own strategies.

The result is that pressure from the state government to build more housing developments can undermine local councils’ policies to, for instance, preserve agricultural land and open spaces – measures that protect against flooding.




Read more:
‘The sad reality is many don’t survive’: how floods affect wildlife, and how you can help them


Indeed, this year’s floods have once again shown how problematic pro-growth agendas and “development for development’s sake” can be.

The recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change makes it clear flooding will increase in scale and frequency, and over-development (part of a problem termed “maladaptation”) will exacerbate the damage it inflicts.

So what needs to change? Our research presents a clear roadmap for local and state government agencies to better prepare.

This includes greater leadership and consistency from the state government, more collaboration between councils and in different levels of government, more capacity-building and more targeted funding.

What’s planned and built today must guarantee the safety, health and well-being of existing and new communities. Giving councils proper resources will help more of us survive in an uncertain future.

The Conversation

Nicky Morrison undertook the study for Western Sydney Health Alliance, with funding from NSW Government and Local Government NSW ‘Increasing resilience to climate change’ grants. She is on the Executive Committee of Healthy Urban Collaboratory, part of Sydney Partnership for Health Education, Research and Enterprise, and the Strategic Advisory Committee of James Martin Institute for Public Policy. Nicky gratefully acknowledges the contributions of Erica McIntyre and Nathan Reynolds, WSU research assistants, on this research project.

Patrick Harris receives funding from NHMRC, ARC, and NSW Government. His position is jointly funded by UNSW and South Western Sydney Local Health District. He is the president of the NSW Branch of the Public Health Association of Australia.

ref. Under-resourced and undermined: as floods hit south-west Sydney, our research shows councils aren’t prepared – https://theconversation.com/under-resourced-and-undermined-as-floods-hit-south-west-sydney-our-research-shows-councils-arent-prepared-178293

Putin’s biggest mistake of the Ukraine war? Trusting the Western financial system

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

The West is arraying financial weapons never deployed before against a country of Russia’s size, forsaking some of the principles that have defined it.

Part of what has defined the West – and most of what has been the world’s engine of prosperity for the past century and a half – has been the free flow of goods across borders, a working banking system, and property rights.

There’s been an implicit understanding that no sizeable nation (Russia’s economy is about the size of Australia’s) would be denied access to these things. Otherwise the financial system wouldn’t be the financial system.

That seems to have been the understanding of Russian President Vladimir Putin. But ten days ago, the West did the unthinkable, and the global financial system may never be the same again.

Russia’s vast war chest

Over the seven years since Putin last invaded Ukraine (and annexed Crimea) in 2014, Russia’s central bank has almost doubled its holdings of foreign currency and foreign bonds and gold, building up a reserve of US$630 billion at a considerable cost to the living standards of ordinary Russians.

It was a war chest that would enable Russia to continue to buy things that could only be bought in foreign currency, even if customers overseas refused to trade with it and supply it with that currency. It was Russia’s insurance policy.




Read more:
‘Just short of nuclear’: these sanctions will cripple Russia’s economy


And although it could have been stored in Russia, much of it was kept in banks in the UK, Western Europe and the US, for easy access when it was needed to buy things on those markets.

Whatever his other suspicions of the West, Putin seemed to think its financial system wouldn’t be turned off – not to a nation of Russia’s size.

China will learn from Russia’s mistake

On February 27 the West froze the assets and travel of named oligarchs and Russian officials, as was expected.

Also, and less expected, it stopped named Russian banks from accessing the messaging system used to transfer money across borders, ensuring they were “disconnected from the international financial system”.

And, much less expected, it froze the reserves of Russia’s central bank stored in France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the US – the hundreds of billions of savings legitimately placed in foreign banks for safekeeping.




Read more:
US-EU sanctions will pummel the Russian economy – two experts explain why they are likely to stick and sting


That action broke the bond of trust that makes a bank a bank. And while effective – Russia can’t get access to hundreds of billions of foreign dollars it has painstakingly built up to buy supplies and support the ruble on currency markets – it can only be done at this scale once.

China will have taken note and won’t be entrusting any more foreign assets to banks in France, Germany, Italy, the UK and the US than it can afford to lose.

Freezing foreign reserves has been done before – but only to the less powerful nations like Iran, Afghanistan and Venezuela. This is the first time it’s ever been done to a member of the G20 or the UN Security Council.

The battle of the fridge vs the TV

The ruble has collapsed 40%. Denied access to the foreign currency it would need to support the ruble in the market, Russia’s central bank has attempted to stem the tide by more than doubling its key interest rate, lifting it from 9.5% to 20%.


The ruble falls off a cliff

Fraction of a ruble per US cent.
Trading Economics

Russia has blocked Russians from sending money abroad, stopped paying foreigners interest payments on government debt and required every Russian firm earning dollars to hand over 80% of them in exchange for rubles.

For ordinary Russians, there’s a “battle of the fridge versus the television”: the stark contrast between the reality of daily life against the claims of state media.

Until recently, Russian TV wasn’t even using the word “war” (although it has started). The television has been telling Russians things are normal.

But Russians’ fridges, ATMs, and their blocked Visa, Mastercard and ApplePay accounts are all telling them something else.

From buying a washing machine to getting a mortgage, an awful lot is suddenly expensive or unavailable. But official polls (for what they are worth) show public support for the “special military operation”. Television has been using the realities of shortages and price increases to attack the West for becoming anti-Russian.

Hitting Russia’s elite and military where it hurts

Whatever ordinary Russians actually think about the war, the impact of the West’s unprecedented sanctions on the Russian elite is likely to matter more. No longer able to travel aboard, access their offshore savings or pay the school fees of their children abroad, the oligarchs have at least the potential to exert influence.

The final way in which the financial embargo might succeed is by starving Russia of foreign exchange to the point where it can’t buy spare parts for its military or the computer chips and other materials needed to make those parts.




Read more:
US-EU sanctions will pummel the Russian economy – two experts explain why they are likely to stick and sting


There’s every chance none of these will work quickly, every chance they will further impoverish Russians, and every chance that, if Russia subjugates Ukraine, the West will find the sanctions impossible withdraw without losing face.

The global financial system changed when the West did the barely thinkable on February 27. It’s hard to see a way back.

The Conversation

Peter Martin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Putin’s biggest mistake of the Ukraine war? Trusting the Western financial system – https://theconversation.com/putins-biggest-mistake-of-the-ukraine-war-trusting-the-western-financial-system-178635

Why banning men from leaving Ukraine violates their human rights

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amy Maguire, Associate Professor in Human Rights and International Law, University of Newcastle

Roman Pilipey/EPA/AAP

As Ukraine scrambles to defend itself from Russia’s illegal invasion, men aged 18 to 60 have been banned from leaving the country.

The declaration of martial law in Ukraine gives the government power to enact this ban, but it is not in keeping with human rights or humanitarian norms.

So, what is actually happening in Ukraine and what does the law say?

What the Ukrainian government says

When Russia invaded last month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on Ukrainian civilians to defend their country.

As the Ukrainian interior ministry also posted on Telegram:

Today is the moment when every Ukrainian who can protect his home must take up arms. Not just to help our soldiers, but to cleanse Ukraine of the enemy once and for all.

But if you are a man between 18 and 60, this call to arms may seem more like a compulsory requirement. As Ukraine’s border guard service explains, the ban on adult men leaving is aimed at guaranteeing “Ukraine’s defence and the organisation of timely mobilisation’”.

What does self-defence look like?

Given the illegality of Russia’s invasion, Ukraine is entitled to defend itself under the United Nations Charter. Of course, a country will rely on all available military resources to exercise this right of self-defence.

Ukraine already has a sizeable army, with 200,000 active personnel and 300,000 reservists, as well as paramilitary forces who are now being mobilised under the general mobilisation decree.

A Ukrainian soldier and a militia man help a fleeing family.
A Ukrainian soldier and a militia man help a fleeing family.
Emilio Morenatti/AAP

But Ukraine’s military resources pale in comparison to Russia’s modern, professional army built up through massive investment over the past decade. It has about 900,000 active personnel and about two million reservists.

Given the obvious imbalance, it is not surprising Ukraine is now desperate to mobilise every eligible individual. But there is an important distinction between people who are conscripted into military service and people who are banned from leaving, but not then formally mobilised or equipped to fight.

Conscientious objection

With their country facing armed attack by a major military power with the aim of overthrowing their government, some Ukrainians have felt compelled to stay and potentially fight.




Read more:
How the Russian military remade itself into a modern, efficient and deadly fighting machine


Some have enlisted in the wake of Russia’s invasion. These brand new soldiers have been called both conscripts and volunteers.

Others have felt compelled to leave. The very nature of the conflict puts civilians at risk – it is playing out in densely populated cities, through shelling and aerial bombardment. Already more than one million people have fled.

However, for men aged 18 to 60, the ban on leaving Ukraine means they have no choice to flee the attack and the risks they face as civilians in the theatre of war.

A New York Times podcast tells the story of an animator named Tyhran, who unsuccessfully tried to cross the border into Poland.

I can’t imagine myself doing military stuff […] I have no experience in it. I’m afraid of holding a gun […] I cannot imagine myself holding a gun.

Tyhran says he was shamed at the border by guards and others seeking to cross, but may try again to cross illegally.

They are bombing and people are dying. Everyone is running […] They are not going to stop. They just want to destroy.

Meanwhile, there are reports LGBTQI+ Ukrainians are terrified of being targeted, given Russia’s program of discrimination against gay and transgender people in Russia.

What international law says

The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights guarantees freedom of thought, conscience and religion or belief. Although it does not specifically guarantee a right to conscientious objection to military service, the UN Human Rights Committee has confirmed this right derives from the protection under the convention.

Ukrainians crowd into a bombed building, as they try to cross the border.
The UN estimates more than one million people have fled Ukraine so far.
Emilio Morenatti/AP/AAP

This means that if a person’s conscience, religion or beliefs conflict with an obligation to use lethal force against other people, their right to conscientious objection to military service must be protected.

Some human rights can be suspended or limited during a public emergency. But the right to freedom of conscience is specifically excluded from this category.

What should Ukraine do?

The government of Ukraine should cancel its ban on men leaving the country. To maintain it will violate the freedom of conscience of any man who wishes to flee due to a conscientious objection to killing others.

In relation to LGBTQI+ people, the ban could also be regarded as preventing people with a well founded fear of persecution from fleeing to seek refuge outside Ukraine.




Read more:
Civilians are being killed in Ukraine. So, why is investigating war crimes so difficult?


More broadly, repealing the departure ban would protect Ukraine from allegations it is failing to protect civilians, as required by international humanitarian law. It is one thing to conscript men into military service, providing training and appropriate equipment (although, even in that case, a right to conscientious objection must be respected).

It is another thing entirely to prevent civilians from escaping a war zone.

The international context

Ukraine must also consider how its actions reflect on parallel efforts to hold Russia accountable for its illegal aggression and potential violations of human rights.

For example, Ukraine has requested the International Court of Justice to intervene with the international law equivalent of an injunction against Russia. Ukraine alleges Russia is using false accusations of genocide to justify an illegal invasion that is, in turn, inflicting human rights violations on the people of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court’s prosecutor has initiated an investigation of Russia’s actions in Ukraine. The prosecutor has identified a reasonable basis to believe that alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity are underway in Ukraine.

In this context, Ukraine must remain mindful of the legality of its own practice. The ban on men leaving Ukraine ought to be lifted, because it is legally and ethically wrong to force civilians to stay in harm’s way when they have the opportunity and desire to escape.

The Conversation

Amy Maguire does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Why banning men from leaving Ukraine violates their human rights – https://theconversation.com/why-banning-men-from-leaving-ukraine-violates-their-human-rights-178411

Private obstetric care increases the chance of caesarean birth, regardless of health needs and wishes

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Serena Yu, Associate Professor, University of Technology Sydney

Shutterstock

Women in Australia are more likely to have an unplanned caesarean birth if they give birth in a private hospital rather than a public hospital – independent of their health status during pregnancy or their birth plans. Our recent study showed an unplanned caesarean birth was 4.2% more likely in a private hospital compared with a public hospital. For first-time mums, it was 7.7% more likely.

Many studies have pointed to a link between private obstetric care and higher rates of caesarean births. But it’s been difficult to tease out the effects of women who may need or want a caesarean birth. We can’t look to the gold standard of evidence in the form of a randomised trial, because it would be unfeasible and unethical to randomly assign women to public and private care.

Instead, in this study we focused on a large data set of over 289,000 births in NSW between 2007 and 2012, and used a method developed to approximate a randomised trial. Two-thirds of women received public care, while 27% gave birth in a private hospital (7% had a private obstetrician in a public hospital). Women in our study had low risk pregnancies right up to the start of labour and did not plan to have a caesarean. This approach took out the effect of maternal choice and health needs, leaving only the impact of care received: private or public.




Read more:
How to manage pain during childbirth: what the research says


Two different health systems

Caesarean birth is a necessary and life-saving surgery when a clinical need exists. However, caesarean birth has also been linked with a range of short and long term adverse child health outcomes, such as respiratory infection, eczema and metabolic disorder. So unnecessary caesarean births may involve increased risk without clear benefit.

In Australia, 35% of all babies were born via caesarean birth in 2017. Of the surgeries performed before the pregnancy was full term, over 40% were without a medical reason. Some of this is due to maternal choice, but international studies have shown that convenience and payment to the doctor or hospital also matter.

In Australia, the way hospitals and providers are paid could be an important factor in birth outcomes. Private doctors and hospitals are employed and paid differently from their public counterparts, so they face different incentives to intervene during labour and childbirth.

Private obstetricians are paid on a fee-for-service basis to attend the birth. By contrast, publicly appointed obstetric and midwifery staff are paid on a salary basis for agreed hours. This means private obstetricians receive more income, the more births they can attend. In some cases, caesarean birth may also be seen as a method of risk management given the uncertainty of prolonged labour.

Hospitals also receive different payment based on whether a birth was caesarean or vaginal, reflecting the relative complexity of caesarean birth. Caesarean birth is a high-cost procedure: an average A$11,782 charge for caesarean birth, compared to A$8,388 for a vaginal birth in a private hospital. In our study, there were more than 3,200 “extra” caesarean births in private hospitals, that is, births that would have been vaginal births in the public system.

Private choices, caesarean outcomes

In Australia, women who give birth in a public hospital have care provided by appointed midwives and obstetricians. If they have the resources, some women may decide to pay for care from a private obstetrician of their choice, either at a private or a public hospital (with reimbursement from their private health insurer). For women who wish to schedule a caesarean birth without health reasons – as a matter of convenience or because they are nervous about vaginal birth – private care is often the only option.

Our research is the first to measure the impact on the type of birth of having a private obstetrician in a public hospital, as well as the impact of giving birth in a private hospital.

We found a smaller effect of having a private obstetrician in a public hospital, which raised the probability of caesarean birth by 2.1%. This could be due to the influence of both the culture in a less-interventionist birth unit led by midwives, as well as the dominance of appointed staff, in public hospitals.

By contrast, we found a larger increase of 4.2% for women who gave birth in private hospitals. Aside from possible payment and convenience incentives, this could also be due to the more interventionist culture in private hospitals. Again, these increases in the likelihood of a caesarean birth were independent of health need at the onset of labour or prior birthing intention. While many caesarean births may occur due to complications during labour, there is no evidence to suggest these complications are more common in private hospitals.

woman holds very young baby close
Caesarean births cost the system more than vaginal births.
Shutterstock



Read more:
Vaginal birth after caesarean increases the risk of serious perineal tear by 20%, our large-scale review shows


Valuing autonomy

Our results have meaningful implications for women choosing their antenatal and birth care, as well as the health system supporting them. Women value their autonomy and participation in the decision-making process when it comes to labour and childbirth.

Women may choose a private obstetrician for reasons of continuity of care or because of a recommendation. They may prefer the amenities in a private hospital. Our study adds to a body of evidence about the likelihood of surgical intervention in different settings. Women should seek information about their care choices and advocate for their preferences around intervention with their midwife or doctor.

Unnecessary caesarean births mean we are not using scarce health system resources in the best way. This research calls for a rethink of the Australian private health insurance system, which supports this diversion of funding and specialists towards unnecessary care that could carry increased risks for birthing mother and child.

The Conversation

Serena Yu receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council which supported this research. She also currently receives funding from the Medical Research Future Fund.

Caroline Homer receives funding from National Health and Medical Research Council which supported this research. She is a Life Member of the Australian College of Midwives and the immediate Past President.

Denzil G Fiebig receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council which supported this research. He also currently receives funding from the Medical Research Future Fund.

Rosalie Viney receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council that supported this research.

Vanessa Scarf receives National Health and Medical Research Council which supported this research. She works as a midwife in a hospital on a casual basis. She also worked on the NHMRC funded Birthplace in Australia Study as the Project Coordinator.

ref. Private obstetric care increases the chance of caesarean birth, regardless of health needs and wishes – https://theconversation.com/private-obstetric-care-increases-the-chance-of-caesarean-birth-regardless-of-health-needs-and-wishes-178032

Curious Kids: what is the largest penguin that ever lived?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jacob C. Blokland, Vertebrate Palaeontology PhD Candidate and Casual Academic, Flinders University

A life reconstruction of one of the largest penguins that ever lived, _Kumimanu biceae_. Illustration by Mark Witton (used with permission, all other rights reserved), Author provided

What is the largest penguin that ever lived? – Casey, age 6, Perth

Hi Casey, thanks for this great question!

Today the largest living penguin is the emperor penguin, which lives in Antarctica and is about one metre tall. The appropriately named little penguin is the smallest, standing only about as high as a ruler.

But penguins have swum in Earth’s oceans for more than 62 million years – and they were not always these sizes. Long before humans walked the Earth, some penguins would have stood as tall as a grown-up person.

Emperor penguins
Emperor penguins swim in the waters of Antarctica.
Ian Duffy/Flickr, CC BY-NC

Diving in

To understand how penguins once got so big, we need to go back to the very first ones.

The closest relatives of penguins today can actually fly through the air. These include petrels and the soaring albatrosses.

Penguins and petrels are close relatives.
Ed Dunens/Flickr, CC BY-NC

While waddling penguins might seem quite different to these seabirds, they’re quite alike in a number of ways. They share similarities in their skeletons, and both share distant relatives (great, great grandparents going back millions of years) that flew in the air.

Penguins can’t fly in the air anymore. Instead, they “fly” through the water — and doing both well isn’t an option.

For birds, water is a lot harder to fly through than air. But penguins have certain qualities that allow them to do this.

The wings of penguins are flippers. These are great for moving underwater, but not very helpful for flying above it. Their heavy bodies help them dive further and deeper so they can hunt for food. But being heavier makes flying in the air difficult.




Read more:
Curious Kids: do penguins fly underwater?


While penguins’ distant relatives were small seabirds, over many years they gave up flight to become professional swimmers. The bigger they were, and the stronger their bones, the better they could dive.

Because penguins have heavier and stronger bones than air-flying birds, this means their bones are less likely to break. It also means we are more likely to find them as fossils (what’s left behind from ancient life) long after they die.

In fact, the bones of one kind of giant penguin (Kairuku waewaeroa) were discovered by school children.

Room to grow

The asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs (except birds!) 66 million years ago gave the distant relatives of penguins the perfect chance to go swimming.

Many of the animals that would have eaten them in the sea were gone, which meant they could go underwater without worrying about being eaten.

The oldest penguin bones we have belonged to birds that lived only a few million years after the asteroid hit, and come from Aotearoa, or New Zealand. These are similar to the bones of today’s penguins, so we think penguins probably stopped flying in the air some time soon after the asteroid event.




Read more:
Happy 6ft: ancient penguins were as tall as people. We’ve discovered the species that started the downsizing trend


Some of these first penguins were enormous. One was the gigantic Kumimanu biceae, which was probably 1.7 metres tall (the same size as many human adults).

Kumimanu may have been one of the largest penguins ever. It probably weighed 100kg, whereas the emperor penguin weighs less than half of that.

Kumimanu biceae, next to a human for scale.
G Mayr/Senckenberg Research Institute, CC BY-ND

While many giant penguins lived in the millions of years after Kumimanu, the only penguin that may have been larger was the huge Palaeeudyptes klekowskii, which swam off the coast of Antarctica more than 34 million years ago. This penguin may have been two metres tall and weighed 115kg!.

As for what happened to giant penguins, they vanished about 15 million years ago and no one really knows why. There are still many questions, but with more fossil discoveries, we might find some answers!

Kairuku waewaeroa was one of the last giant penguins.
Simone Giovanardi (used with permission), CC BY-NC

The Conversation

Jacob C. Blokland receives funding from The Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship.

ref. Curious Kids: what is the largest penguin that ever lived? – https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-what-is-the-largest-penguin-that-ever-lived-178036

How the Ukraine war is dividing Orthodox Christians

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonathan L. Zecher, Research fellow, Australian Catholic University

AAP/AP/Vadim Ghirda

There is a famous tale within Russian Orthodox Christianity that goes like this:

In the 16th century, Ivan IV – the Terrible, arguably the first Tsar of Russia – sought to extend his power and sent men to ravage those towns that had not submitted to him. At that time, Basil, a “fool for Christ”, came and offered him a gift of raw meat. It was Great Lent, the time when Christians fast from meat and dairy foods in preparation for Good Friday and Easter, and Ivan said that as an Orthodox Christian he would not eat meat. Basil responded: you drink the blood of humans, why not eat meat?

Ivan was shocked and repented his violence, and called off those attacks.

A house divided

When it comes to Russian ambitions, not much has changed since Ivan’s days, except the range and power of the weapons. But the current war has an important religious dimension, because both sides of the conflict are not merely Christian, they are members of the same church, sharing a thousand years of religious history.

Today, 71% of Russians and 78% of Ukrainians identify as Orthodox Christians. In fact, until 2019, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) was part of the Moscow Patriarchate (MP), and many parishes remain there (UOC-MP), in conflict with a self-governing Orthodox Church of Ukraine (UCO).

Moreover, on both sides, Orthodox Christianity is deeply woven into political life. Priests bless Kalashnikovs and tanks, and Russian cathedrals are monuments to imperial ambition.

Likewise, a majority of both Ukrainians and Russians believe that being Orthodox is necessary to being Ukrainian or Russian, and both populations expect their religious leaders to play a role in political, even military, actions. In this world, the statements and actions of Orthodox leaders will have a profound effect on the war.

Ivan the Terrible was a ruthless and bloodthirsty leader.
Sky History

So how have Orthodox leaders responded to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?

A fractured and fractious response

Unlike the Catholic Church, the Orthodox Church is divided into 17 self-governing jurisdictions, which together care for a global population in the hundreds of millions.

In this complicated situation, churches’ responses have ranged from justification to condemnation of the war, and are all marked by prayers for peace and mercy.

Patriarch Kirill of Moscow confined his official remarks to asking both sides to “avoid civilian casualties” while later preaching the war in sermons. His official request seems not to have influenced Russian tactics.

Epifaniy and Onufriy, rival leaders of Orthodox Christians in Ukraine, issued statements condemning the invasion. The latter, normally loyal to the Moscow patriarchate, called this a “fratricidal war”“. He even likened it to the biblical story of Cain, who killed his brother Abel: the subtext is that Ukraine is the innocent Abel. It is quite possible UOC-MP parishes, alienated by Russia’s invasion and already refusing to commemorate their patriarch, Kyrill, will leave Moscow and join the self- determining Orthodox Church of Ukraine.

Patriarch Kirill of Moscow has confined his official remarks about the Ukraine war to ‘thoughts and prayers’.
AAP/AP/Alexander Zemlianichenko

The strongest condemnation comes from the Ecumenical Patriarch, Bartholomew, in Constantinople (Istanbul), a long-time opponent of the Moscow patriarchate. He not only condemns the war as an unprovoked invasion, but calls it a “violation of human rights and the brutal violence against our fellow human beings”.

Georgia and Finland, which have experienced Russian aggression, both military and ecclesiastical, have condemned the invasion. Antioch (in Damascus, Syria) offers only its hopes for peace and unity. Serbia and Bulgaria remain supportive of the Russian advance.

Church leaders’ statements reflect their existing loyalty, fear, or dislike of Moscow – as both military and ecclesiastical power. Amid these varied responses, this war will likely redraw maps of Church jurisdictions, foster greater sympathy for Ukrainian self-determination, and lead to a global loss of respect for the MP.
But Orthodox tradition itself offers resources for a more profound response.

A voice of conscience

Orthodox Churches recently celebrated Forgiveness Sunday. The day begins Great Lent, a time when the Church’s hymns call not just for dietary fasting, but for an end to injustice, the release of the oppressed and, above all, repentance. Orthodox Christianity can, and should, be the voice of conscience calling Russian leaders to repentance, which amounts to an end to the invasion.

Patriarch Kirill used Forgiveness Sunday to justify Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a defence against anti-Christian values. The mental acrobatics required for his sermon are difficult to fathom.

On the other hand, hundreds of Russian Orthodox clerics, some of them war veterans themselves, have signed an open letter calling for an immediate end to Russia’s war. These clerics speak from within Russian orthodoxy as both organisation and spiritual tradition.

Their rejection of war shows orthodoxy’s key tenets of repentance and sacrificial love. These virtues constitute the core of Orthodox Christian ethics, and are particularly emphasised during this time of Great Lent.

Of course, they’re dangerous virtues when exercised against authoritarian rulers like Putin, but it is incumbent on church leaders and all Orthodox Christians to demand, and exemplify, both.

And what of Ivan the Terrible?

His repentance was fleeting, and he continued waging war throughout his life. To commemorate his military victories in Kazan, he commissioned the Pokrovsky Cathedral in Moscow. It was intended as another monument to Russian imperial glory.

But we know it by the name of that Russian Orthodox saint who demanded repentance of Ivan: St Basil’s.

The Conversation

Jonathan L. Zecher is a member of the Antiochian Orthodox Church.

ref. How the Ukraine war is dividing Orthodox Christians – https://theconversation.com/how-the-ukraine-war-is-dividing-orthodox-christians-178319

Emma Beech’s The Photo Box is an intimate and honest view of a life

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By William Peterson, Associate Professor, Auckland University of Technology

Adelaide Festival/Roy Vandervegt

Review: The Photo Box, directed by Mish Grigor, Vitalstatitix and Brink Productions for Adelaide Festival

Emma Beech’s The Photo Box reminds us why we gather in small theatres to listen to a single performer tell us stories about their life.

In The Photo Box, Beech mines the personal, bringing the audience along for a ride that is delightful, moving and, at times, hilarious.

Beech is quite a presence: charming, open, disarming, and a fluid mover with a self-deprecating sense of humour.

The starting point for the work, she tells us early on, was when her father “started preparing for death” 24 years ago and curated family photos into nine boxes.

Aided by clever production and projection design (Meg Wilson and Chris Petridis), Beech brings these photographs to life, weaving stories of family, motherhood and what it feels like to come from a place many would regard as a backwater.




Read more:
‘Theatre of the real’: how artists at Perth Fringe World are stripping down to reveal their vulnerabilities


Rough and real

Six screens of various height and sizes suggest family photo frames. Sitting on overhead tracks, Beech moves them into various positions as the projections on the screens flow fluidly and masterfully with the narrative.

Her hometown, Barmera on Lake Bonney in South Australia’s Riverlands is character in the story: the land on which her family’s stories are written.

“I always had the feeling that Barmera was a bit more shit than most places and that you were a bit shit for coming from there”, she says.

Production image: Beech sits in a lawn chair, surrounded by blue
Barmera on Lake Bonney is as much a character in the story as the Beech family members are.
Adelaide Festival/Roy Vandervegt

The youngest of nine children in a Catholic family, Beech pulls no punches when in comes to the town, her family or her personal life. Far from celebrating the folksy friendliness of small-town life, Beech’s Barmera is as rough and real as her storytelling.

By the time she came along as number nine, her mother Betty had spent virtually all her 20s and 30s producing children.

Answering the question of why, Betty’s response is simply: “We were Catholic of course. That’s what we did.”

Emotional logic

Originally, the autobiography unfolds in a chronological fashion, with photos of the young Emma moving through life’s milestones. The pattern is quickly upended.

Chronology is replaced by an emotional and psychological logic that moves and slices across time, capturing moments of revelation.

Beech’s stories are not just about herself: they are also about family members and partners. One story focuses on her brother Pete, the one who “stayed behind”, details of Pete’s life peppered throughout the larger storytelling arc.

Production image: Beech talks about a photograph of a man with a young girl on his shoulders.
Beech pulls no punches as she explores her family photographs.
Adelaide Festival/Roy Vandervegt

We learn Pete runs the local hardware store; he can be short and gruff; he loves music and his mates; he’s not good at being alone.

Later, Beech tells us a story of walking down North Terrace one day and seeing a “sad looking man” outside the Royal Adelaide Hospital.

Pete’s wife was in hospital following a life-threatening brain aneurysm. As Beech approaches the sad man, she realises it is her brother, attended by his mates who stayed in the city for the 17 days his wife was in a coma.

Another story tells of the year she brought her Danish boyfriend to Barmera for a raucous and heavy-drinking family Christmas. The brothers-in-law, “the least respected members of the family”, are put in charge of cooking the meat, which they burn.

The relationship with the Dane didn’t survive Christmas.

Intimate and honest

Woven into The Photo Box are three intimate short films (filmmaker Shalom Almond with cinematographer Helen Carter), looking at Beech’s brother Pete in his home bar, her father in his comfy chair listening to André Rieu on his headphones, and her mother Betty, a devoted member of the Catholic Women’s League, cleaning the local church.

These films add a deeply textured experiential dimension to the story telling.

Production image: Beech in front of images of her triplets.
Beech is the mother of triplets, and themes of motherhood weave throughout the storytelling.
Adelaide Festival/Roy Vandervegt

In her early 40s, Betty was a mother of nine. In her early 40s, Beech is the mother of triplets. This bond of motherhood brings the show toward its conclusion.

Earlier in the production, we learnt Betty has been secretly learning Italian and long dreamt of travelling to Italy. Now Betty looks into the camera toward the audience and says, “Ciao sono Betty” (I am Betty).

It is a beautiful, intimate moment that lingers.

For a solo autobiographical piece to fully engage that audience, it requires the intimate, honest qualities found in The Photo Box. Under the direction of Mish Grigor with dramaturgical contributions from Anne Thompson, this is a supremely local, intricately crafted and beautifully shaped work of theatre.

Season closed.

The Conversation

William Peterson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Emma Beech’s The Photo Box is an intimate and honest view of a life – https://theconversation.com/emma-beechs-the-photo-box-is-an-intimate-and-honest-view-of-a-life-175329

Gavoka slams Fiji’s ‘shameless’ inaction over women’s rights

By Talebula Kate in Suva

Women’s participation in decision-making is fundamental to improving gender equality but despite making up half of Fiji’s population, representation at all levels of leadership for women is severely lacking, says an opposition political leader.

The leader of the Social Democratic Liberal Party (SODELPA), Viliame Gavoka, said this in his statement as the international community commemorates International Women’s Day today.

Gavoka said this year’s theme reminded Fijians that bias made it difficult for women to move ahead.

International Women's Day
International Women’s Day

He said knowing that bias existed was not enough, action was needed to level the playing field.

Gavoka said that for far too long, Fiji had continued to “shamelessly lag behind” in protecting and promoting women’s rights and their peace-building expertise.

“A study carried out by the Fiji Women Right’s Movement reveals that 42 percent of Fiji boards or executive committees of for-profit or non-profit organisations or government agencies have no women at all and 26 percent have less than one-third female participation,” Gavoka said.

“The research on gender diversity and equality on boards looked at 192 board members across 38 government-controlled organisations and state-owned enterprises,” he said.

“The purpose of the research was to determine the level of women’s representation in the boards of the 38 entities.”

Lack of diversity
He said the research also identified challenges that limited the participation of women in Fiji’s leadership, such as lack of diversity and opportunity for women elected to preside as board chair.

“According to the research, women hold only 18 percent of board chair positions and sometimes it is the same women appointed as chair of boards in multiple organisations,” he said.

“In many cases, the same people are on multiple boards. This curtails the opportunities for others to join, contribute and gain board experience.

“Ensuring that women are better represented on boards is important to dismantle patriarchal ideals that are heavily entrenched into our society and limit women’s participation in decision-making.

“There is strong evidence that a gender-equal and diverse governance board improves accountability and diversifies the expertise, knowledge and skills available.”

Gavoka said that when SODELPA would be voted into government, they would ensure to “break barriers and accelerate progress”, including:

  • setting specific targets and timelines to achieve gender balance in all branches of government and at all levels through temporary special measures such as quotas and appointments; and
  • encouraging political parties to nominate equal numbers of women and men as candidates and implement policies and programmes promoting women’s leadership.

“On this year’s International Women’s Day, we should also pause and reflect on the sacrifices of our women in all facets of society despite the challenges they’ve endured to bring change and progress.”

Republished with permission.

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Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Covid-19: 28 Parliament protesters believed to have tested positive

RNZ News

Twenty-eight of the anti-public health protesters who occupied New Zealand’s Parliament grounds over the past month have now tested positive for covid-19.

In a statement, the Ministry of Health said 11 district health boards had reported covid-19 cases from the protest, including Wairarapa, Waitematā, Waikato, Taranaki, Southern, MidCentral, Tairawhiti, Hutt Valley, Counties Manukau, Capital and Coast, and Canterbury.

“These people are thought to be protesters, although they have not been interviewed as they would have been prior to the recent changes in case investigation,” the statement said.

“In phase 3 [of the Omicron response], cases are not routinely interviewed by health officials and are instead asked to fill out a contact tracing form.

“Only cases that are identified through their interaction with the health system can therefore be identified as having attended the protest.”

The ministry is urging all those who were at the 23-day occupation to get tested and vaccinated.

The ministry also reported 17,522 new cases of covid-19 in the community across New Zealand today with 696 people in hospital — 13 of them in ICU.

The average age of those in hospital was 57.

Meanwhile, Wellington City Council said most of the remaining protesters seemed to have left the capital over the weekend, except for a group at Mahanga Bay who were not on council land.

Work was well underway to remove rubbish, deep-clean, and repair damaged roads, street lights and sewer pipes, it said.

The Department of Conservation said there were no protesters left at its Catchpool Valley campsite in Remutaka Forest Park, which was now closed for cleaning.

Wellington City Council has repairs and a clean-up underway of Parliament grounds after the 23-day occupation by protesters ended.
Wellington City Council has repairs and a clean-up underway of Parliament grounds after the 23-day occupation by protesters ended. Image: Wellington City Council/FB/RNZ

Christchurch library shuts for two hours over protesters
In the South Island, Christchurch central city library shut for almost two hours this morning when 40 protesters who were stopped from entering refused to leave.

A council spokesperson said Tūranga was closed after a warning that a group linked to the Freedom and Rights Coalition might protest there.

The council was not considering increasing security staff in response to the incident.

A police spokesperson said the 40-strong group was refused entry to the library because they did not have vaccine passes.

Police arrived at the library, where the group stood outside for a while before leaving, but no one was arrested or trespassed from the building.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

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How we communicate, what we value – even who we are: 8 surprising things data science has revealed about us over the past decade

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul X. McCarthy, Adjunct Professor, UNSW Sydney

Shutterstock

Big data analysis has long supported major feats in physics and astronomy. But more recently we’ve seen it underpin breakthroughs in the social sciences and humanities.

Since the landmark paper Computational Social Science was published in 2009, a new generation of data analytics tools has given researchers insight into fundamental questions about how we communicate, who we are and what we value.

For instance, by analysing the relative frequency of certain words in historical texts, researchers can identify important changes in our use of language over time.

In some cases these shifts will be obvious, such as the use of archaic words being replaced by more contemporary words. But in other cases, they may reflect more subtle but widespread social and cultural changes. Below are some of the most influential data-centric discoveries from the past 10 years.

How we communicate

Over the past decade, a growing number of global open data sources have helped researchers reveal patterns in what we read, write and pay attention to. Google Books, Worldcat and Project Gutenberg are just some examples.

The release of the Google Books n-gram viewer in the early 2010s was a game changer on this front. Using the entire Google Books database, this tool shows you the relative frequency of a specific term or phrase as it has been used over hundreds of years. Researchers have used this data to explore the systematic suppression of the mention of Jewish painters, such as Marc Chagall, in German books during World War II.

Data analysis can also reveal patterns in the expression of human emotions over time. CSIRO’s We Feel tracks emotions in communities around the world. It does this by analysing the language people are using on social media in real time and mapping it out.

The tool can be used to determine the general mood over time (hour by hour, day by day) within particular cities and countries. Patterns in these data can then be explored in association with other information, such as weather, holidays and economic fluctuations.

Some research findings even claim to represent fundamental changes in humans’ social values, community sentiment and how we think (for example, the rise and fall of words associated with rationality such as “method”, “analysis” and “determine”).

Here are some key findings in this space:

  • Cultural turnover is accelerating

    A Harvard University-led analysis of more than a century of data from millions of books provides evidence that society’s attention span for historical events is declining, as appetite for new material grows.

    In other words, we are forgetting the past faster. You can see this in the graph below, which tracks how often three specific years are mentioned across a vast range of literature through time. As time passes, the “half-life” of each year (the point at which it receives just half the attention it had at its peak) comes quicker.

    Counts of mentions of the years 1883, 1910 and 1950 in all books for the past 200 years.
    Our collective attention for historical events has shrunk over the past century.
    Michel et al., Science 2010

  • Human language diversity and biodiversity are correlated

    By mapping linguistic diversity and the diversity of animal species, researchers have shown these two worlds are correlated geographically – both increasing with temperature and proximity to the equator. So the closer to the equator you get, the more variation there is in spoken language and the greater the variety of species there is.

    The authors propose this is due to heat near the equator producing greater productivity and variety in plant life, which in turn provides more complex and interactive environments for both animals and humans alike – feeding into a cycle whereby “diversity begets more diversity”.

    Three figures showing diversity distributions of language and animals and their relation to geography.
    Researchers have shown both linguistic diversity and species diversity increase exponentially with temperature and proximity to the equator.
    Hamilton, Walker & Kempes, Scientific Reports 2020

  • There have been society-wide shifts in language use over the past century

    In an article published in December researchers used machine learning to show long-term, consistent changes in our use of language. Specifically, they reveal an inflection point in the 1980s where there is a shift towards more egocentric, emotional and supposedly less rational language.

    The authors suggest (although not without contest) this could signal the beginning of a “post-truth era”.

Who we are

In the field of psychology, the same data analytics tools have shown that people’s personalities can be measured using the “Big 5” traits, which largely become stable in adulthood.

This was possible thanks to extensive data sets such as HILDA in Australia, the German Socio-Economic Panel in Germany and the British Household Panel Survey in the UK.

Robust studies have also demonstrated that personality traits can be reliably and accurately predicted from a variety of data sources including voice recordings, mobile phone usage patterns and even portrait photographs.

In turn, there have been some remarkable associations found at scale between personality and:

  • Elevation

    A study published in 2020, and based on more than three million people’s data, shows mountain-dwelling people tend to have different personality traits than those who live at sea level. They are generally more open to new experiences and more emotionally stable.

  • Location

    Another earlier study shows people who live in the United States can be divided into three clear and measurable clusters of personality types, linked with associated geographic footprints. New Yorkers and Texans (who are in the same cluster) are more likely to be temperamental and uninhibited.

  • Occupation

    In our own research published with colleagues in 2019, we analysed the personality features of people in more than 1,000 different occupations. We found people in the same role share similar traits. Scientists are more open to new ideas yet ready to argue, whereas tennis professionals tend to be friendly and outgoing.

    The research used machine learning to infer the personality features of more than 100,000 people, based on language used on social media.




Read more:
Robot career advisor: AI may soon be able to analyse your tweets to match you to a job


What we value

In economics, we’re seeing major research frontiers being opened up thanks to data analysis, including in:

  • Network science

    When it comes to success, we’ve learnt that performance matters most when it can be measured (like in sport). But in other fields where it can’t be measured easily (like in the art world), networks matter most.

  • Behavioural economics

    We can now see how we behave as individuals en masse, unveiling valuable clues for effective policy interventions around employment, taxation and education. For instance, one large-scale study revealed those quickest to re-enter the workforce displayed certain key behaviours. These included being an early riser and being geographically mobile (perhaps meaning they’re more willing to travel further, or relocate, for work).

Post-theory science?

Some have argued data science poses a fundamental challenge to the traditional sciences, with the emergence of “post-theory science”. This is the concept that machines are better at understanding the relationship between data and reality than the traditional scientific method of hypothesise, predict and test.

However, reports of the death of theory are perhaps greatly exaggerated. Data are not perfect. And data science based on incomplete or biased data has the potential to miss, or mask, important patterns in human activity. This can only be addressed by critical thinking and theory.




Read more:
Nobel economics prize winners showed economists how to turn the real world into their laboratory


The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. How we communicate, what we value – even who we are: 8 surprising things data science has revealed about us over the past decade – https://theconversation.com/how-we-communicate-what-we-value-even-who-we-are-8-surprising-things-data-science-has-revealed-about-us-over-the-past-decade-176891

Has Xi Jinping miscalculated in aligning himself with Vladimir Putin?

PRC President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden. Image; Wikimedia.org.

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tony Walker, Vice-chancellor’s fellow, La Trobe University

As Russia’s attempt to intimidate Ukraine and, presumably, install a puppet regime stumbles into its second week, it is clear the Kremlin has miscalculated on several fronts.

Ukrainian resistance is proving more resilient than anticipated, and a global response, led by the United States, has been more unified and damaging to Russia’s interests than might have been expected.

If not turning into a debacle for Vladimir Putin, the Ukraine war is carrying with it risks for his tenure. Russia’s economic stability is in peril in the face of global economic sanctions such as have not been witnessed in a generation or more.

Putin’s apparent failure to anticipate the full extent of a co-ordinated international pushback against his recklessness remains a mystery.

However, in all of this there is a bigger question. This has to do with China’s contradictory responses to Russia’s ruthless breach of a neighbouring country’s sovereignty.




Read more:
Why Vladimir Putin is so confident in his Ukraine strategy – he has a trump card in China


In the diplomatic history of the People’s Republic, there has been a consistent theme. This goes back to Premier Zhou Enlai’s declaration of the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence, adopted by the Bandung Conference of Non-Aligned Nations in 1955.

China has used these “five principles”, which begin with “mutual respect for each nation’s territorial integrity and sovereignty”, as a diplomatic shield ever since to rebut criticisms of its conduct internally and assert its views abroad.

Beijing, of course, has not always adhered to these five principles, such as its invasion of Vietnam in 1978, or its persistent border clashes with India, or its aggressive pursuit of its territorial ambitions in the South China Sea.

China’s resort to the five principles to assail others and defend its own misbehaviour has been nothing if not opportunistic.

Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai dines with US President Richard Nixon in 1972.
AP/AAP

On the other hand, there has scarcely been a more flagrant breach of national sovereignty, and therefore the five principles, than Russia’s use of brute force to bring a neighbouring country to heel.

China’s responses to the Russian invasion have been contradictory. On one hand, it has sought to justify Putin’s gambit by suggesting an American-led NATO had brought such an outcome on itself by refusing to disavow Ukraine participation.

On the other, it has tried to reassert its belief in non-interference in the sovereign affairs of another country.

This has been an unedifying spectacle, and one that has called into question both the steadfastness of Chinese diplomacy and the judgment of its paramount leader, Xi Jinping.

As much as this is Putin’s war, it is also Xi’s most challenging and confounding moment on a world stage. If Putin and Xi are intent on ushering in a new world order, their experiment in shifting global building blocks is not going well.

A simple question arises. Will Xi continue to double down on a bad bet on Putin’s recklessness, or will he seek cover in China’s traditional adherence to the principles that Zhou Enlai laid down three-quarters of a century ago?

Put simply, will Xi’s ill-starred alignment with Putin, in which the Chinese leader declared in a joint communique in February the Russian leader was his “best friend”, place him in a diplomatic cul de sac?

If Putin has miscalculated in all of this, then so has Xi, in a year of great importance to him personally.

In Chinese Communist Party history, no events assume greater significance than sessions, each five years, of the National Party Congress.

The NPC’s 20th session since the founding of the Community Party of China in 1921 will be held in October.

As things stand, it is anticipated Xi will be anointed for a further five year-term as general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and president. This will breach the convention introduced during the Deng Xiaoping era that restricted these leadership roles to two terms.

As things stand, Xi Jinping will likely be elected China’s leader for another five years.
Ng Han Guan/AP/AAP

Xi’s confirmation will invite questions as to whether he is being installed as Communist Party leader for life.

From Xi’s perspective, he will not want there to be questions about his judgment in the lead-up to this event.

What is sometimes overlooked in assessments of what is happening in China politically is that behind the scenes, debate and contentiousness, often bitter, are integral to leadership manoeuvring. Power struggles are not absent from this process.

The stakes are high in the world’s most populous country, and soon to be largest economy in US dollar terms. China is already the largest on a purchasing power parity basis.

Xi’s alignment with a Russian miscalculation is clearly not in his or China’s interests.

In this, the US-led response to Putin’s war in Ukraine raises the costs for China in its policy towards Taiwan. Global push-back against Chinese adventurism across the Taiwan Strait would dwarf what is now happening in Eastern Europe.

Inside the Chinese leadership there will be those who will no doubt hark back to the principles on which effective Chinese diplomacy has rested from the days of China’s emerging leadership of the non-aligned movement, through the Deng Xiaoping era to those of Xi’s predecessors, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao.

Deng’s “24-character” diplomatic strategy, which emerged in 1990 in response to China’s isolation after the Tiananmen Square bloodshed, guided Beijing for more than a generation until Xi began to preside over a more assertive foreign policy.

Loosely translated, Deng’s advice was:

Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capabilities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership.

In the years since, Deng’s words have been truncated to read “hide our capabilities, and bide our time” to suggest he was advocating a foreign policy of concealment. On this question there is no definitive answer.

Deng Xiaoping outlined his influential ‘24-character’ approach to a more assertive foreign policy.
Neal Ulevich/AP/AAP

Since he succeeded Hu Jintao as party leader in 2012, Xi has deviated from both the Zhou and Deng principles in the conduct of Chinese foreign policy.

His alignment with Putin would have sat awkwardly with Zhou and Deng, both of whom understood China’s best interests were served by avoiding entanglements that would involve unnecessary cost.

In Xi’s case, the costs could be very high indeed. Nothing would serve China’s interests less than a disruption to global trade flows and a possible recession brought about by the overreach of its principal ally.




Read more:
Australia’s strategic blind spot: China’s newfound intimacy with once-rival Russia


China’s economic well-being, and indeed Xi’s own tenure, depends on the country’s continued economic growth and its dominance as a trading powerhouse. At present, China accounts for about 19%, or nearly one-fifth, of global growth and 15% of global trade.

An upheaval that would stunt China’s ability to continue to export and grow its economy would be very bad news indeed for Xi, whose hold on power depends to a significant extent on his ability to continue to improve living standards.

All of this invites questions about Xi’s judgment and his ability to endure in a system that can be unforgiving.

The Conversation

Tony Walker is a board member of The Conversation.

ref. Has Xi Jinping miscalculated in aligning himself with Vladimir Putin? – https://theconversation.com/has-xi-jinping-miscalculated-in-aligning-himself-with-vladimir-putin-178308

Even mild COVID can cause brain shrinkage and affect mental function, new study shows

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Hellewell, Research Fellow, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, and The Perron Institute for Neurological and Translational Science, Curtin University

Shutterstock

Most of what we know about how COVID can affect the brain has come from studies of severe infection. In people with severe COVID, inflammatory cells from outside the brain can enter brain tissue and spread inflammation. There may be changes to blood vessels. Brain cells can even have changes similar to those seen in people with Alzheimer’s disease.

For the first time, a new study has investigated the effects of mild COVID (that is, infection that doesn’t lead to a hospital admission) on the brain. The findings may further explain some of the brain changes contributing to long COVID.




Read more:
We calculated the impact of ‘long COVID’ as Australia opens up. Even without Omicron, we’re worried


Brain scans and tests show changes

Many people who have had COVID report feelings of “brain fog”, fatigue and problems with concentration and memory long after their initial symptoms resolve. These problems, collectively referred to as “long COVID”, may last for months even after mild infection.

Long COVID is very common, and may affect more than half of the people who catch COVID, even if they have a mild case.

Scientists collected data as part of the massive UK Biobank database. They looked at brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans and tests of brain function in 785 volunteers who were assessed before the pandemic. They then compared this to the same data collected three years later, when about half of those participants had mild COVID infection, and the other half had not caught COVID. This allowed the scientists to determine the specific effects of mild COVID infection on brain structure and function.

The group who had mild COVID an average of five months beforehand had thinning of brain tissue in several brain regions, ranging from 0.2% to around 2% compared to their pre-COVID scan. This is equivalent to between one and six years of normal brain ageing. Affected brain regions included the parahippocampal gyrus (an area related to memory) and the orbitofrontal cortex, which is located at the front of the brain and is important for smell and taste.

The post-COVID group also showed a reduction in overall brain size between their MRI scans that wasn’t seen in the non-COVID group, and had altered connections between different brain regions in the olfactory cortex, an area related to smell.

They performed worse in a test for attention and mental flexibility, a finding that was associated with volume reductions within a part of the cerebellum related to smell and social relationships.

Older woman looks concerned with supportive younger woman standing behind her
Further research is needed to see if COVID affects the brains of younger people in the same way.
Shutterstock



Read more:
How does COVID affect the brain? Two neuroscientists explain


Comparing to other illnesses

To show these changes were specific to COVID and not just related to having a respiratory illness, the scientists also looked at a group of people who had pneumonia. They did not see the same changes, confirming they are related to COVID.

Decreases in brain volume are common to many brain diseases and disorders associated with degeneration, and have been found in people with mild cognitive impairment, Alzheimer’s disease, depression and traumatic brain injury, among others.

Problems with memory and attention are also frequent for people with these diseases and disorders, indicating mild COVID infection may accelerate brain degeneration. These changes could explain the reported symptoms of long COVID, such as brain fog.

The study did not look at the mechanisms of mild COVID in the brain. However, the authors suggest this could be due to inflammation, degeneration which spreads through the brain pathways associated with smell, or sensory deprivation due to loss of smell.




Read more:
Isolated, confused and depressed: the pandemic’s toll on people with dementia and their carers


The same for everyone?

So does this study prove all people who have had mild COVID infections will have these same brain changes and long-term brain degeneration? Not necessarily.

There are several important things we still do not know. This includes whether these brain changes will get worse over time, or whether they will go back to normal or previous levels of function. More research over a long time would help us understand the trajectory of brain changes.

This study also only included people aged 51–81, so we do not know whether these findings are relevant for younger people or children.

The brain changes found in this study were more pronounced in the older participants, so it could be that older people are more susceptible. Another study is needed to determine whether the same brain alterations would occur in younger people, or whether these findings are common only to older people.

There were some differences between the groups before COVID, with smaller volumes of areas deep within the brain. However, these were in different brain areas to those affected after COVID.

The scientists also found slightly reduced scores for brain functions of thinking and remembering in the group that went on to have COVID. This study did not specifically exclude people with degenerative brain conditions such as Alzheimer’s or Parkinson’s diseases, but the scientists do not think these would explain the changes they found.

Effects of different variants and vaccination unknown

Because of the nature of the study, information about the strain of COVID people were infected with was not available. So we can’t assume the findings would be the same for people with the now more prevalent Omicron strain.

We also can’t determine the effect vaccination may have in lessening brain changes. Given the timing of the study, it is likely most of the people in the post-COVID group were infected in 2020, so may not have been vaccinated.

This study provides the first important information about brain changes in people with mild COVID infection. Until we have all the information, we should be alert but not alarmed at emerging findings.

The Conversation

Sarah Hellewell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Even mild COVID can cause brain shrinkage and affect mental function, new study shows – https://theconversation.com/even-mild-covid-can-cause-brain-shrinkage-and-affect-mental-function-new-study-shows-178530

‘The sad reality is many don’t survive’: how floods affect wildlife, and how you can help them

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Euan Ritchie, Professor in Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life & Environmental Sciences, Deakin University

For over two decades, bull sharks have called a Brisbane golf course home after, it’s believed, a flood washed them into the course’s lake in 1996. Now, after severe floods connected their landlocked home back to the river system, these sharks have gone missing, perhaps attempting to seek larger water bodies.

This bizarre tale is one of many accounts illustrating how Australia’s wildlife respond to flooding. But the sad reality is many don’t survive. Those that do may find their homes destroyed or, like those bull sharks and others, find themselves displaced far from their original homes or suitable habitat.

The RSPCA and other wildlife care organisations have received hundreds of calls to help rescue and care for stranded animals. But the true toll on wildlife will remain unknown, in part because we know surprisingly little about the impacts of floods on wildlife.

Still, as many animals have amazing abilities to survive fire, so too do many possess the means to survive or even profit from floods. After all, Australia’s wildlife has evolved over millions of years to survive in this land of extremes.

How wildlife responds to floods

Floods rapidly turn land habitats into underwater habitats, allowing aquatic animals to venture into places you wouldn’t expect. Flooding during northern Australia’s annual wet season, for example, sees crocodiles occasionally turn up in people’s backyard pools.

Land-dwelling animals typically don’t fair as well in floods. Some may be able to detect imminent inundation and head for higher, drier ground. Others simply don’t have the ability or opportunity to take evasive action in time. This can include animals with dependent young in burrows, such as wombats, platypus and echidnas.

The extent to which flooding affects animals will depend on their ability to sense what’s coming and how they’re able to respond. Unlike humans who must learn to swim, most animals are born with the ability.

Echidnas, for example, have been known to cover large areas of open water, but fast flowing, powerful floods pose a very different proposition.

Animals that can fly – such as many insects, bats and birds – may be able to escape. But their success will also partly depend on the scale and severity of weather systems causing floods.

Many birds, for example, couldn’t get away from the heavy rain and seek shelter, ending up waterlogged. If birds are exhausted and can’t fly, they may suffer from exposure and also be more vulnerable to predators, such as feral cats and foxes.

During floods, age old predator-prey relationships, forged through evolution, can break down. Animals are more focused on self preservation, rather than their next meal. This can result in strange, ceasefire congregations.

For example, a venomous eastern brown snake was filmed being an unintentional life raft for frogs and mice. Likewise, many snakes, lizards and frogs are expert climbers, and will seek safety in trees – with or without company.

Some spiders have ingenious ways of finding safety, including spinning balloon-like webs to initiate wind-driven lift-off: destination dry land. This is what happened when Victoria’s Gippsland region flooded last year.

One of the challenges of extreme events is it can make food hard to find. Some animals – including microbats, pygmy possums, and many reptiles – may reduce their energy requirements by essentially going to “sleep” for extended periods, commonly referred to as torpor. This includes echidnas and Antechinus (insect-eating marsupials), in response to bushfire.

Might they do the same during floods? We really don’t know, and it largely depends on an animal’s physiology. In general, invertebrates, frogs, fish and reptiles are far better at dealing with reduced access to food than birds and mammals.

During floods species will share refuge such as trees.
Damian Kelly Photography

What happens when floods recede?

Flooding may provide a bounty for some species. Some predators such as cats, foxes, and birds of prey, may have access to exhausted prey with fewer places to hide. These same predators may scavenge the windfall of dead animals.

Fish, waterbirds, turtles and other aquatic or semi-aquatic life may benefit from an influx of nutrients, increasing foraging opportunities and even stimulating breeding events.

Other wildlife may face harsher realities. Some may become trapped far from their homes. Those that attempt to return home will have to run the gauntlet of different habitats, roads, cats, dogs and foxes, and other threats.




Read more:
‘One of the most extreme disasters in colonial Australian history’: climate scientists on the floods and our future risk


Even if they make it home, will their habitats be the same or destroyed? Fast and large volumes of water can destroy vegetation and other habitat structures (soils, rock piles) in minutes, but they may take many years or decades to return, if ever.

Floodwaters can also carry extremely high levels of pollution, leading to further tragic events such as fish kills and the poisoning of animals throughout food chains.

How can you help?

Seeing wildlife in distress is confronting, and many of us may feel compelled to want to rescue animals in floodwaters. However, great caution is required.

Wading into floodwaters can put yourself at significant risk. Currents can be swift. Water can carry submerged and dangerous obstacles, as well as chemicals, sewerage and pathogens. And distressed animals may panic when approached, putting them and yourself at further risk.

For example, adult male eastern grey kangaroos regularly exceed 70 kilograms with long, razor sharp claws and toe nails, and powerful arms and legs. They’ve been known to deftly use these tools to drown hostile farm dogs in dams and other water bodies.




Read more:
10 million animals are hit on our roads each year. Here’s how you can help them (and steer clear of them) these holidays


So unless you’re a trained wildlife expert or animal carer, we don’t recommend you try to save animals yourself. There is more advice online, such as here and here.

If you’d like to support the care and recovery of wildlife following the floods, a number of organisations are taking donations, including WWF Australia, WIRES and the RSPCA.

What does the future hold?

While many Australian wildlife species are well adapted to dealing with periodic natural disasters, including floods, we and wildlife will face even more intense events in the future under climate change. Cutting greenhouse gas emissions can lessen this impact.

For common, widespread species such as kangaroos, the loss of individuals to infrequent, albeit severe, events is tragic but overall doesn’t pose a great problem. But if floods, fires and other extreme events become more regular, we could see some populations or species at increased risk of local or even total extinction.

This highlights how Earth’s two existential crises – climate change and biodiversity loss – are inextricably linked. We must combat them swiftly and substantially, together, if we’re to avoid a bleak future.




Read more:
Mass starvation, extinctions, disasters: the new IPCC report’s grim predictions, and why adaptation efforts are falling behind


The Conversation

Euan G. Ritchie is the Chair of the Media Working Group of the Ecological Society of Australia, Deputy Convenor (Communication and Outreach) for the Deakin Science and Society Network, and a member of the Australian Mammal Society.

Chris J Jolly receives funding from the Nature Foundation and Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program (Threatened Species Recovery Hub).

ref. ‘The sad reality is many don’t survive’: how floods affect wildlife, and how you can help them – https://theconversation.com/the-sad-reality-is-many-dont-survive-how-floods-affect-wildlife-and-how-you-can-help-them-178310

Gender bias in student surveys on teaching increased with remote learning. What can unis do to ensure a fair go for female staff?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kathy Tangalakis, Associate Professor of Physiology, Victoria University

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Gender bias against female academics increased in student evaluations of teaching during remote learning, particularly among male students, our research published today shows. This bias could have impacts on female academics’ leadership and career opportunities, and on their confidence and well-being. Based on our research, we make four recommendations to counter gender bias in teaching evaluations and its impacts.

In early 2020, universities across Australia moved all teaching online due to the spread of COVID-19 and subsequent lockdowns. Academics had to learn very quickly how to teach online and assist their students with online learning. The shift meant teaching moved from the neutral territory of the university classroom into the more private space of the home.

This has had many consequences for academics, particularly women who were also caring for children.




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‘Lose some weight’, ‘stupid old hag’: universities should no longer ask students for anonymous feedback on their teachers


Academics regularly have their teaching performance monitored. This is most often done through student evaluation of teaching. The surveys used for this purpose continued during 2020.

The surveys record student judgement of teacher quality, resources and subject design. Many problems have been identified with institutional reliance on this evaluation measure. These problems include relatively low response rates – often 30% or less – and the subjective nature of student perceptions of teaching quality. These perceptions are influenced by teachers’ gender and race, with some comments in an Australian study qualifying as “hate speech”.

Yet universities continue to rely heavily on student evaluations in monitoring teaching quality. They also use them for individual academic performance management, including promotion.

What did the study find?

Our research, published in a special Women & Leadership issue of the Journal of University Learning & Teaching Practice, analysed more than 22,000 de-identified scores from student evaluations of teaching and over 8,000 de-identified student comments. The data came from surveys in 2019 (face-to-face teaching) and 2020 (remote teaching) that evaluated teaching staff in a multidisciplinary college at Victoria University, Melbourne. All surveys were from first-year students across all disciplines and courses.

There were no differences in student evaluation scores between male and female lecturers or between in-person and remote teaching. But our analysis found a difference in the comments.

Female lecturer standing at the front of a university class
There were no differences in students’ scoring of male and female lecturers in 2019 and 2020, but there was a clear difference in the comments.
Shutterstock

Most comments from both male and female students were positive about both male and female teachers. These comments mostly emphasised that students recognised and appreciated their teachers’ efforts during the massive and rapid shift to online learning in 2020.

Negative comments were in the minority (7% for each year). However, the students making these comments disproportionately targeted female academics for negative commentary about attitude, irrespective of students’ gender or the mode of delivery.

During remote learning, there were more negative comments about female academics’ teaching style, particularly from male students with a 30 percentage point increase in comments by male students from 2019. Typical examples of such comments by male students about female teachers included:

“She had no idea.”

“Concepts were not fully explained and key concepts were left out.”

Female academics were also more often the targets of negative comments on teachers’ ease with the video conferencing software, such as:

“She struggled more than my other teachers on Zoom.”

Comments about the domestic environment while teaching online were in a minority. But these comments were directed at female academics only, such as this one by a female student.

“It was distracting when her child would interrupt her.”

Why does this gender bias matter?

During COVID-19 lockdowns, the burden of caring for children fell disproportionately to women throughout Australia, as the Australian Institute of Family Studies has shown. It was no different for academic women. Should they be penalised for it?

Academic women are also more likely than their male peers to suffer from imposter syndrom. The negative gendered comments in student evaluations of their teaching could reinforce these anxieties.




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In a year when women’s research outputs decreased while men’s research outputs increased, an added concern is there may be an over-reliance on student evaluations for women academics who seek promotion.

What can universities do to counter this bias?

Given that universities still use these surveys for teacher promotion and performance evaluations, ways must be found to counter the effect of poor feedback from students that is so gendered and subjective. We recommend that:

  • an amnesty applies to negative comments in data from student evaluations of teaching in 2020 and 2021 (due to COVID)

  • a guide is created and workshops run for people (line managers and members of promotions panels) reading student evaluation data to highlight their known gendered bias

  • implicit gender bias training for students be developed and cautionary information be added in the survey instructions to students

  • female academics who have encountered such negative feedback are given strategies on how to deal with it. These may include mental health training, sharing the purpose of the evaluation surveys and the feedback with students, focusing on the positive comments rather than the few negative ones, and citing the published research on bias in promotion applications.




Read more:
Yes, uni students say some awful things in teaching surveys, so how can we use them to improve?


The Conversation

Kathy is a lecturer within the First Year College at Victoria University.

Dianne Hall is employed by Victoria University. She has recieved funding from the Australian Research Council.

Kate Kelly and Natalie Kon-yu do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Gender bias in student surveys on teaching increased with remote learning. What can unis do to ensure a fair go for female staff? – https://theconversation.com/gender-bias-in-student-surveys-on-teaching-increased-with-remote-learning-what-can-unis-do-to-ensure-a-fair-go-for-female-staff-178418

The immigration numbers bidding war is pointless – there are limits to how many migrants Australia can accept

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Abul Rizvi, PhD candidate, The University of Melbourne

Mick Tsikas/AAP

Since late last year, various business lobby groups, the NSW government, management consultant KPMG, the Business Council and now a number of economists have been throwing numbers around, talking up the need for higher levels of immigration.

I have written previously on the facile nature of the immigration debate in Australia, on the part of both the groups calling for “immigration to be cut wherever possible” and the groups calling for a bigger Australia.

The problem is the debate focuses on targets and numbers for permanent migration, often confusing this permanent migration program with what matters for population which is net migration. At the same time, too little attention is paid to how migration targets would be delivered, the risks involved, and how the risks would be managed.

So let’s start with basics.

What matters is net migration

The official migration program reflects the number of permanent resident visas issued in any one year, irrespective of whether the person is already in Australia (perhaps for a long time on a different sort of visa) or has been living overseas.

Over the past 15 years, more than half of these permanent resident visas have been issued to people who have already been living long-term in Australia.

Net migration as calculated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of long-term and permanent arrivals, including new people issued these visas, less departures of people who have been living long-term in Australia and intend to remain overseas for 12 out of the next 16 months.

It is blind to visa status or citizenship.




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Net migration can fall sharply even when the migration program is large, as happened in 2014-15 when we had one of the largest permanent migration programs in Australia’s history, yet net migration fell to 180,000.

A sharp fall in net migration is usually associated with a weak labour market leading to large outflows of Australians, or Australians deciding not to return, as happened in 1975-76, 1982-83, 1991-92 and 2008-09.

On the other hand, even when the migration program is being cut, net migration can be forecast to rise. This is what happened in the 2019 budget, when Treasury forecast the highest sustained level of net migration in our history, after a year in which the migration program was cut from 190,000 to 160,000 per year.

How many migrants, and which ones?

Before discussing the various immigration targets that have recently been proposed, it’s useful to understand the government’s current forecasts and how it intends to deliver them – something surprisingly few do.

The 2021-22 program has been set at 160,000 per year. But Treasury’s 2021 Population Statement assumed to increase to 190,000 per year from 2023-24.




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There is no official government commitment to this increase to 190,000 – and there probably won’t be ahead of the election. There has also been no indication of the composition of this larger program, or what might be needed to deliver it.

Planning documents say the 2021-22 migration program will be split evenly between the family stream and the skill stream. This is because the government is at last clearing the very large backlog of partner applications it (unlawfully in my view) allowed to build up.



If the planned 72,000 partner visas in 2021-22 are delivered, the government might only need to allocate around 50,000 places for partners in future years because it will have cleared much of the backlog it has allowed to build up, which will result in a future overall family stream of around 60,000.

This means that to deliver its total program of 160,000 from 2022-23, the government will need an extra 22,000 skilled migrants, and from 2023-24 when the total program increases to 190,000, an extra 52,000 skilled migrants.

The current skill stream planning level of 79,600 has four main components.

There is scope to boost the number of these visas by processing them faster. However, even with a very strong labour market, it is highly unlikely that demand would rise much above 35,000 per year, especially if a more robust minimum salary requirement and strong monitoring of compliance with employer obligations are re-introduced to minimise the risk of wage theft.

The passive investment subset of these visas, which provides visas to people who make a financial investment for a set period of time, is essentially a “buy a visa” scheme. It should be either abolished or modified to ensure active investment.

I resisted establishment of the passive investment component until I left the department of immigration in 2007. Long-term, removing it would cut the number of business innovation and investment visas to around 5,000 per year.

This visa is highly susceptible to cronyism and corruption and attracts few migrants who wouldn’t otherwise qualify for other more robust visa categories. It should either be abolished or pared back to a few hundred per year for highly exceptional candidates.

While the labour market is strong, there would be merit in increasing the allocation of places for these visas, as state governments are well placed to understand the needs of their jurisdictions. But it is unlikely they would be able to fill more than an additional 10,000 places per year, given the occupational targeting and employment criteria they have in place.

Once again, while the labour market is strong, there is scope to increase the size of this category, but there are also risks that would need to be managed.

As these migrants have no confirmed job and face a four year wait for access to social security, diluting criteria for this visa to increase the numbers would mean a rising portion would struggle to secure a skilled job.

Those with options may leave to another country where job prospects are stronger. Others would be forced to take whatever job they can, including at exploitative wages.

In my experience, increasing the size of this visa category to more than around 25,000 would involve substantial risks, especially if the labour market weakens once current stimulus measures are removed.

190,000 won’t be easy to deliver

In total, what I foresee gives us a skill stream of around 100,000. Together with a family stream of 60,000, that provides only enough to fill the existing program of 160,000 per year – not enough to increase it to the 190,000 proposed by Treasury or the 220,000 proposed by the Business Council of Australia.

Those proposing much higher levels of immigration need to demonstrate how they would be delivered and how the risks of what might be a weaker labour market would be managed.

And they need to acknowledge that the size of the migration program doesn’t determine net migration. That’s in large measure determined by the economy and how many Australians and migrants decide to leave, decide to stay overseas, or decide to return.

The Conversation

Abul Rizvi was a senior official in the Department of Immigration from the early 1990s to 2007 when he left as Deputy Secretary. He has recently published a book titled Population Shock.

ref. The immigration numbers bidding war is pointless – there are limits to how many migrants Australia can accept – https://theconversation.com/the-immigration-numbers-bidding-war-is-pointless-there-are-limits-to-how-many-migrants-australia-can-accept-177626

Second-class media citizens: why Australians still have to wait for new TV shows on streaming services

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Oliver Eklund, PhD Candidate in Media and Communication, Queensland University of Technology

Wikipedia

In early February, fans tuned in to Network 10 expecting to see the new season of South Park. Instead, they saw re-runs. Were South Park co-creators Matt Stone and Trey Parker trolling fans with a fake new season or was this yet another familiar experience of lagging release schedules for Australian viewers?

It was the latter.

Australian TV audiences are no strangers to the idea of having to wait for content. Researchers Ramon Lobato and James Meese, writing in 2016, found Australians were “second class media citizens” who had been “frustrated by the high cost and slow delivery of first-release TV and movies from the United States.”

Australians are yet to see the new seasons of American Dad or Family Guy on-demand, despite both airing in America in recent months. And while Peaky Blinders most recent season has been airing in the UK since February, there’s still no announced release for Australian Netflix.

Streaming was meant to simplify this landscape and allow for content to arrive quicker.

Licensing confusion

Rights for shows are broken down into different types. Airing a TV show by linear broadcast (traditional television) requires licensing the broadcast rights while making the show available for non-linear streaming requires licensing the streaming rights.

Often, broadcast rights include a window of exclusivity for the television broadcaster before the content can be made available on a streaming platform – otherwise why would anyone watch the broadcast?

Australians and many avid fans around the world are dealing with the fallout of complex licensing agreements across media conglomerates, streamers, and broadcasters that are delaying, and sometimes even removing, their favourite shows.

In 2020, after 23 years as the Australian broadcast home of South Park, SBS made the decision not to renew their first-run broadcast rights, with 10 Shake set to become the new Australian home of the show. South Park’s 2020 pandemic special was “fast-tracked” to 10 Shake, arriving only a few hours after the US broadcast.

The 25th Season of South Park, released in the US on February 2nd this year was expected to follow suit and air on 10 Shake in the first week of February, but re-runs played instead.

To try and clear up the confusion, Paramount+’s Australian Twitter account tweeted that, for streaming the new season, the first two episodes would come out February 25th on Australian Paramount+.

“Due to regional digital licensing restrictions, some content isn’t available in Australia at the same time it is in the USA,” said the tweet, something that most Australians need no reminding of. The Paramount+ airdate of the 25th for the first two episodes was some time after the February 2nd premiere in America. Episodes 3 and 4 followed on March 4. 10 Shake eventually broadcast new episodes from February 24 onwards.

As the Australian streaming rights to the new season of South Park are held by Paramount+ and 10 holds the broadcast rights (and as, anyway, both companies are owned by ViacomCBS) Australians are left wondering – why the delay?

The arrival of streaming platforms hasn’t been the silver bullet to solve timely release of content, as licensing deals and the oddities of broadcast and streaming rights agreements have seen confusing consequences for Australian audiences.

We’ve been here before

South Park’s 25th season isn’t the first time that a gulf between streaming and broadcast rights has left Australians in a lurch – it’s a common occurrence in the an industry where rights are constantly renegotiated around legacy and new media providers. Australians were thrown a similar curve ball with the fifth season of Netflix original Arrested Development in 2018.

Netflix’s fourth season of the show had released in 2013, before Netflix was available in Australia. As a result, Netflix had sold off first-run broadcast rights to Fox. Yet come 2018, with Netflix now available in Australia, Australians were forced to go to Foxtel for the release of a high-profile Netflix Original. The strange licensing agreement had allowed Foxtel broadcast rights and a short on-demand window for future seasons, and kept the Netflix show off Netflix for some time.

Disney’s purchase of Fox in 2019 later saw the ownership of the first three seasons transfer to Disney, arriving on Disney+ in 2021. Later that year Arrested Development’s last two seasons left Netflix and are no longer available for Australians on any platform.

The weird oddities of licensing and rights deals can come back to bite consumers. Much as Netflix’s own Arrested Development seasons suddenly vanished from Australian Netflix, an old licensing deal will see a number of Disney movies vanish from Disney+ and return to Netflix in 2026 despite those titles leaving Netflix in 2019.

Arrested Development’s final two seasons are no longer available to Australians on any platform.
Netflix

What happens when we can’t watch our favourite content?

Before streaming kicked off in the country, Australians were used to delayed release times on their favourite content. In 2014, this frustration combined with Game of Thrones hype drove Australians to be world leaders in digital piracy. Conventional wisdom suggested this problem could be fixed by the arrival of the dozen streaming platforms in the years since and the ability they brought for instant content access. With so many platforms, how could you ever not find the content you wanted?

However, the confusing web of rights has allowed for just as much uncertainty. Despite Australians having so many streaming platforms, different types of rights and licensing deals mean Australians waited weeks for some new South Park, which is now finally broadcasting on 10Shake and streaming on Paramount+.

The Conversation

Oliver Eklund owns shares in Disney, Netflix, and Apple.

ref. Second-class media citizens: why Australians still have to wait for new TV shows on streaming services – https://theconversation.com/second-class-media-citizens-why-australians-still-have-to-wait-for-new-tv-shows-on-streaming-services-176689

Concerned about your risk of a heart attack? Here are 5 ways to improve your heart health

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ellie Paige, Senior Research Fellow, George Institute for Global Health

The news of Shane Warne’s untimely death of a suspected heart attack at the age of only 52 years has left many cricket fans reeling.

Heart disease is the leading cause of death in Australia – and worldwide, including the United States, where two in ten people who die of heart disease are aged under 65.

Heart disease is highly preventable, so it’s never too early to consider what you can do to improve the health of your heart. Here are five evidence-based ways to do this.

1. Get a heart health check

When someone dies suddenly and unexpectedly of heart disease, people will often say “but they exercised regularly, didn’t smoke and ate well”.

But some of the main risk factors for heart disease – including high blood pressure and high LDL cholesterol – are things you need to have checked by a doctor.

If you’re aged 45 years or older and do not already have heart disease, Australia’s current guidelines recommend having a heart health check by your GP.

A heart health check combines information on your risk factors and estimates how likely you are to develop heart disease in the next five years.

Doctor listens to man's chest with stethoscope.
Medications can reduce the risk of heart disease for some people.
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Your GP can use this information to identify whether you need to make lifestyle changes, and whether you would benefit from preventive medications to lower your blood pressure and cholesterol.

Blood pressure– and cholesterol-lowering medications each lower the risk of developing heart disease by around 25%. So if they’re recommended for you, using them long-term is an effective way to reduce your risk.

However, a study using data from 2012 found around 76% of Australians aged 45 to 74 years at high risk of a first-time heart attack or stroke weren’t using these life-saving treatments.




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Diabetes is another important cause of heart disease. Your GP will be able to guide you about whether or not you need a check for diabetes.

If you have diabetes, your GP will help to ensure it’s managed well, to reduce your risk of heart disease.

2. Quit smoking

Although Australia has some of the lowest smoking rates in the world, around 11% of Australians still smoke daily.

Smoking damages blood vessels and contributes to the underlying processes that lead to heart disease.

People who are current smokers are around two times as likely to have a heart attack or stroke than people who have never smoked.

A landmark Australian study showed people who smoked died around ten years earlier than people who have never smoked, and up to two-thirds of ongoing smokers died from their habit.

But quitting smoking can reverse these effects. Quitting at any age was found to be beneficial – the earlier the better. In the long term, those who quit before the age of 45 had a similar life expectancy as people who had never smoked.




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3. Improve your nutrition

In Australia, poor diet, excess weight and obesity are leading causes of heart disease.

However, many popular diets are not supported by science.

A healthy diet is important for heart health. For most people, small changes to your diet, such as increasing your intake of fruit, vegetable and wholegrains and reducing salt intake, can have large benefits.

For suggestions on healthier alternatives when you’re grocery shopping, try The George Institute’s FoodSwitch app.

4. Cut your salt

On average, Australians consume almost twice the World Health Organization’s recommended daily maximum of 5g salt.

Randomised trials of salt reduction show clear effects on reducing blood pressure, a leading contributor to heart disease.

To reduce your salt intake, you can try reducing the amount of processed foods you eat and cutting down on the amount of salt you add to your food.

Salt substitutes, although not widely available on supermarket shelves, can also play a role. Salt is made up of sodium chloride; salt substitutes involve replacing a portion of the sodium chloride with potassium chloride which acts to lower blood pressure.

Older woman sitting in a chair puts a hand to her chest.
Reducing your salt intake will also reduce your risk of heart disease.
Shutterstock

5. Get moving

Physical activity, in addition to being good for the waistline, helps improve cardiac functioning. Studies have linked regular exercise with a lower risk of having a heart attack.

Australian guidelines recommend adults get at least 30 minutes of moderate intensity exercise most days, but even smaller amounts are beneficial.

Any kind of movement is good, so if you are just starting out, choose an activity you like and get moving.




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The Conversation

Ellie Paige has received funding from the National Heart Foundation of Australia, the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia and the Australian Government Department of Health.

Bruce Neal s the Executive Director of The George Institute Australia which advocates strongly for healthier diets. Through The George Institute he receives funding from health and medical research councils and philanthropy in support of work to optimize diets for human health. He is an inventor of the FoodSwitch smartphone application.

Through the Australian National University, Emily Banks has received research funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, the National Heart Foundation of Australia and the Australian Government Department of Health

Jason Wu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Concerned about your risk of a heart attack? Here are 5 ways to improve your heart health – https://theconversation.com/concerned-about-your-risk-of-a-heart-attack-here-are-5-ways-to-improve-your-heart-health-178631

It’s still legal to rape your wife in India. That could be about to change

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Saptarshi Mandal, Associate law professor, O.P. Jindal Global University

In late February, a court in Delhi finished hearing a case on married Indian women’s right to sexual autonomy, and now, a decision on the matter is awaited.

The Indian Penal Code, enacted by the British colonial state in 1860, exempts forcible sexual intercourse by husbands upon wives from the definition of rape. This means a man cannot be charged with rape if the victim is his wife. Although rape provisions in the penal code have undergone several changes since then, the husband’s immunity has been retained.

In the current case, which began in 2015, two non-government organisations (the RIT Foundation and All India Democratic Women’s Association) challenged the constitutional validity of the marital rape exemption. According to the petitioners, the distinction that Indian rape law makes among women based on their marital status is unreasonable, and hence, in violation of the equality guaranteed by the constitution of India.




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Why does the marital rape exception exist?

The original rationale for the exemption was derived from 17th and 18th-century English jurists. For Mathew Hale (chief justice of England between 1671-1676), consent to marriage itself implied consent to sex, which once given could not be revoked.

Similarly, English judge and politician, Sir William Blackstone argued that if the husband and the wife became one legal entity upon marriage – as was the law at the time – then, logically speaking, the husband could not be charged with a crime against his own self. In short, these jurists stressed the conceptual impossibility of marital rape.

In England, where these ideas originated, and in Australia, where they travelled with colonialism, the exemption no longer exists. The courts in these countries have held the exemption was never part of the common law (unwritten body of laws based on judicial precedents), and that previous judges were mistaken in believing it was.

Why is the Indian government against criminalising rape within marriage?

However, the question before the Indian court is not about the historical validity of the husband’s immunity, but its compatibility with the rights and freedoms guaranteed by the Indian constitution. Successive governments have avoided answering the question directly.

As opposed to the “impossibility of marital rape” thesis taken by the English jurists, the Indian state’s attitude can be described as the “inconvenience of marital rape” thesis.

The Indian state does not invoke theories of the wife’s implied consent to sex with the husband or the merger of her personhood with that of the husband’s upon marriage. Nor does it deny sexual violence takes place within marriage.




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Instead, it refuses to recognise marital rape, citing a range of factors that it claims pose practical difficulties in enforcing a criminal prohibition on non-consensual sex in marriage. In other words, the refusal to recognise marital rape is presented as a policy decision that seeks to balance competing considerations that are equally relevant.

In 2013, India had a reform of its rape laws. And while they broadened the definition of rape in a number of ways, including to acts other than penile-vaginal penetration, the then-government refused to criminalise marital rape on the grounds it would weaken the sanctity of marriage. As an alternative, a parliamentary committee suggested victim wives should opt for divorce or seek remedies for domestic violence.

In 2017, in its response to the NGOs’ petition, the coalition government led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) stated that since it was not clear what evidence could be used to prove whether a sexual encounter between a husband and wife was consensual, marital rape should not be recognised.

It went on to argue that legally ending the husband’s immunity will not prevent the incidence of marital rape anyway, since legal changes were useless without “moral and social awareness”. Given differences between India and western countries, owing to its poverty, illiteracy, and social diversity, validating non-consensual sex within marriage will not have the desired effect, the government argued.

The current BJP-led government’s position is no different. In the course of the recently concluded hearing, it requested the court defer the hearing so it could consult the state governments on the issue.




Read more:
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The government affirmed its commitment to protect the rights and dignity of all women, but asked the court to not decide on the matter based on constitutional principles or legal arguments alone, given its far-reaching social implications.

However, the judges refused to accede to that request and continued with the hearing. Meanwhile, in response to a question about the government’s stance on the issue, a minister told the parliament comprehensive reform of all criminal laws was being considered. This process begun during the COVID-19 pandemic and has been criticised by lawyers, legal scholars, and activists for its hurried and non-participatory nature.

Do married women have a legal right over their bodies?

The Indian state has never directly answered the question as to whether Indian women lose their rights to bodily integrity and sexual autonomy upon marriage. Instead, it has pointed to the inconveniences of recognising and enforcing these rights.




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Gang rape exposes caste violence in India and the limits of Me Too


But the long list of inconveniences cited by the state over the years are really not about the judges, the prosecutors, or the police. Concerns regarding the state’s intrusion into the private sphere, difficulties in proving rape, or, the potential misuse of the law are used to mask the fact the one person who will be inconvenienced the most if the marital rape exemption is struck down, is the husband.

We can only hope the Delhi High Court, in its much-awaited judgment, will put the spotlight on what the issue is really about – the husband’s unquestioned claim to the wife’s body.

The Conversation

Saptarshi Mandal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. It’s still legal to rape your wife in India. That could be about to change – https://theconversation.com/its-still-legal-to-rape-your-wife-in-india-that-could-be-about-to-change-176797

Refugees, reporting and the far right: how the Ukraine crisis reveals brutal ‘everyday racism’ in Europe and beyond

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bina Fernandez, Associate professor, The University of Melbourne

Please be advised this article features accounts of racism and racist discourse, including mentions of Nazism.


The intensifying conflict in Ukraine has raised the issue of racism not only in Ukraine, but Europe. Three specific and related dimensions of racism are evident in this complex conflict.

Discrimination against African and Asian nationals fleeing Ukraine

Shocking reports emerged in the past week of discrimination faced by African and Asian nationals (mainly international students in Ukraine) who were among the over 1 million people seeking refuge in neighbouring Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, and Moldova.

African and Asian people were forcibly prevented from boarding trains and buses leaving Ukrainian cities, as priority was given to white Ukrainians. Those who finally reached the Polish border (some even on foot) found that again white Ukrainians were prioritised entry. Some African, Asian, and Middle-Eastern nationals were met by verbal and physical abuse on arrival.

Many African, Asian, and Middle Eastern nationals spent two to three days at border check-points, and reported lack of food, water, accommodation or basic support in freezing winter conditions, while they waited to get through.

A statement issued by the African Union condemned reports about the treatment of Africans as “shockingly racist and in breach of international law” and observed:

all people have the right to cross international borders during conflict, and as such, should enjoy the same rights to cross to safety from the conflict in Ukraine, notwithstanding their nationality or racial identity.




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Racist mainstream media portrayals

Equally disturbing is the unthinkingly racist mainstream media framing of Ukrainian refugees, in comparison to the framing of refugees from Syria, Iraq or Afghanistan or Africa.

Below, a selection of such racist commentary from major news outlets:

  • “This isn’t Iraq or Afghanistan […] This is a relatively civilised, relatively European city” – Charlie D’Agata, CBS

  • “War is no longer something visited upon impoverished and remote populations” – Daniel Hannan, The Telegraph

  • “What’s compelling is looking at them, the way they are dressed. These are prosperous, middle-class people. These are not obviously refugees trying to get away from the Middle East […] or North Africa. They look like any European family that you’d live next door to” – Peter Dobbie, Al Jazeera

These descriptions of Ukrainian refugees invidiously position them as more “civilised” and “superior” to refugees from the Middle East, African or Asian nations. This seems to imply that Ukrainian lives are worth saving, while the lives of millions of others who seek refuge are more disposable because they are people who are not “well-dressed”, “middle-class”, don’t “look like us”, or live in more remote, supposedly less “civilised” locations.




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White-supremacist Ukrainian mobilisation

The third and more dangerous dimension of racism is the mobilisation of the neo-Facist, white supremacist Azov movement in Ukraine since 2014. Azov started as a volunteer battalion that was then officially integrated into the National Guard of Ukraine in November 2014. The current Ukrainian government has not made comment on this movement.

In the current crisis, Azov battalion is training Ukrainian civilians for guerrilla-style combat with the Russian military.

However, it is important to also note that similar white nationalist groups exist across Europe and North America. Therefore Putin’s claim of “de-Nazification” of Ukraine is a flimsy reason for invasion of Ukraine.

While the Azov battalion officially denies adhering to white supremacist ideologies, Azov’s street patrol called National Militia were responsible for attacks on Roma in Ukraine in 2018.

Azov also plays a pivotal role in the global network of far-right, white-nationalist extremism; it “participated in training and radicalising United States–based white supremacy organizations” (according to a 2018 FBI affidavit).

Closer to home, alongside other European far-right movements, Azov’s propaganda appears to have inspired Brenton Tarrant of Australia in his deadly terrorist attack on a mosque in Christchurch in 2019. This was evidenced by the sonnerad or black sun on his jacket, a symbol commonly used by the Azov Battalion and far-right brands in France.




Read more:
The US is boosting aid to Ukraine: 4 questions answered


What accounts for these three dimensions of racism in the Ukraine crisis, and how are they connected?

Research suggests racism and xenophobia varies with the relationship between hostile government policies and anti-migrant sentiments of the population. In short, the problem of racism is not just Ukrainian or eastern European, it is European.

More nuanced analysis argues there is insufficient evidence to show eastern Europeans are more xenophobic than western Europeans. Any analysis should consider the complex histories of migration from, and through eastern European countries.

Indeed, as the global news coverage of Ukrainan refugees demonstrates, everyday racism – or what Goorie author Melissa Lucashenko refers to as “white normal savagery” is not restricted to eastern Europe. All three dimensions of racism discussed here are the manifestation of global, systemic institutionalised racism and imperialism.

Acknowledgement of this institutionalised racism and imperialism would begin by first recognising the Ukraine crisis as a power struggle between the US/NATO and Russia, underwritten by interests of weapons manufacturers and oil companies. This crisis was long predicted by strategic observers of global politics.

Recognising the wider context of institutionalised racism would allow us to connect the current racist treatment of African and Asian migrants in the Ukraine crisis to deadly European border policies over the past decades. These policies have led to increasing numbers of migrants mostly from Africa and the Middle East, reported as missing in the Mediterranean since 2014.

Azov needs to be recognised as the belligerently violent face of a racialised political order that is potentially dangerous. However, this would require holding the US accountable for its suspected support of Azov, and its refusal (along with Ukraine) to condemn the glorification of Nazism in a UN Resolution in 2017.

Finally, we should recognise that any moves to dismantle institutionalised racism are unlikely to be undertaken voluntarily. As Professor of Sociology József Böröcz argues, the defining element of “whiteness” is a “claim, indeed demand, for unconditional global privilege” that is always being reconstituted.

The Conversation

Bina Fernandez does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Refugees, reporting and the far right: how the Ukraine crisis reveals brutal ‘everyday racism’ in Europe and beyond – https://theconversation.com/refugees-reporting-and-the-far-right-how-the-ukraine-crisis-reveals-brutal-everyday-racism-in-europe-and-beyond-178410

The east coast rain seems endless. Where on Earth is all the water coming from?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chiara Holgate, Hydroclimatologist, Australian National University

Jason O’Brien/AAP

At any one time, Earth’s atmosphere holds only about a week’s worth of rain. But rainfall and floods have devastated Australia’s eastern regions for weeks and more heavy rain is forecast. So where’s all this water coming from?

We recently investigated the physical processes driving rainfall in eastern Australia. By following moisture from the oceans to the land, we worked out exactly how three oceans feed water to the atmosphere, conspiring to deliver deluges of rain similar to what we’re seeing now.

Such research is important. A better understanding of how water moves through the atmosphere is vital to more accurately forecast severe weather and help communities prepare.

The task takes on greater urgency under climate change, when heavy rainfall and other weather extremes are expected to become more frequent and violent.

aerial view of flooded streets and roofs
Rain has hammered Australia’s east coast for weeks.
Nearmap

Big actors delivering rain

The past few months in eastern Australia have been very wet, including the rainiest November on record.

Then in February, heavy rain fell on already saturated catchments. In fact, parts of Australia received more than triple the rain expected at this time of year.

So what’s going on?

In the theatre that is Australia’s rainfall, there are some big actors – the so-called climate oscillations. They’re officially known as:

  • El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): this cycle comprises El Niño and its opposite, La Niña. ENSO involves temperature changes across the tropical Pacific Ocean, affecting weather patterns around the world

  • Southern Annular Mode (SAM): the north-south movement of strong westerly winds over the Southern Ocean

  • Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): changes in ocean temperatures and winds across the tropical Indian Ocean.

Like swings in a character’s mood, each climate mode has positive, negative and neutral phases. Each affect Australia’s weather in different ways.

ENSO’s negative phase, La Niña, brings wetter conditions to eastern Australia. The IOD’s negative phase, and SAM’s positive phase, can also bring more rain.




Read more:
Why water inundates a home during one flood but spares it the next


woman sits in rain with raincoat and umbrella
Climate oscillations affect Australia’s weather in different ways.
Lucas Coch/AAP

Going back in time

We studied what happens to the moisture supplying eastern Australian rainfall when these climate drivers are in their wet and dry phases.

We used a sophisticated model to trace moisture backwards in time: from where it fell as rain, back through the atmosphere to where it evaporated from.

We did this for every wet winter and spring day between 1979 and 2013.

This research was part of a broader study into where Australia’s rain comes from, and what changes moisture supply during both drought and heavy rain.

We found most rain that falls on eastern Australia comes from moisture evaporated from a nearby ocean. Typically, rain in eastern Australia comes from the Coral and Tasman seas. This is depicted in the strong blue colours in the figure below.

Eastern Australian rainfall moisture supply.
Sources of moisture for rain falling in eastern Australia.
Holgate et al, 2020

But interestingly, some water comes from as far as the Southern and Indian oceans, and some originates from nearby land areas, such as forests, bare soils, lakes and rivers.

Natural processes can alter the typical supply of moisture to the atmosphere, causing either droughts, or floods.

Our research shows of all possible combinations of climate oscillations, a La Niña and a positive SAM phase occurring together has the biggest effect on eastern Australian rainfall. That combination is happening right now.

During La Niña, more moisture is transported from the ocean to the atmosphere over land and is more easily converted to rainfall when it arrives.

During the positive SAM, the usual westerly winds shift southward, allowing moisture-laden winds from the east to flow into eastern Australia.

Our research focused on winter and spring. However, we expect the current rainfall is the result of the same combined effect of the two climate oscillations.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is not active at this time of the year. But it was in a weak negative phase last spring, which tends to bring wetter-than-normal conditions.




Read more:
Back so soon, La Niña? Here’s why we’re copping two soggy summers in a row


three boys in wetsuits and boogie boards play in water
Most rain falling on eastern Australia comes from moisture evaporated from a nearby ocean.
Jason O’Brien

Looking to future floods

Under climate change, extreme La Niña and El Niño events, and weather systems like those causing the current floods, are expected to worsen. So reducing greenhouse gas emissions is crucial.

The current La Niña event is past its peak and is predicted to dissipate in autumn. But because our catchments are so full of water, we still need to be on alert for extreme weather.

The current devastating floods are a sobering lesson for the future. They show the urgent need to understand and predict extreme events, so communities can get ready for them.




Read more:
People could’ve prepared for the floods better if the impacts of weather forecasts were clearly communicated


The Conversation

Chiara Holgate receives funding from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.

Agus Santoso receives funding from CSIRO. Agus Santoso is a CSIRO adjunct science leader, co-project leader at the Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, associate investigator at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, and is affiliated with the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program.

Alex Sen Gupta receives funding from the Australian Research Council as part of the Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and the Centre of Excellence in Antarctic Science

ref. The east coast rain seems endless. Where on Earth is all the water coming from? – https://theconversation.com/the-east-coast-rain-seems-endless-where-on-earth-is-all-the-water-coming-from-178316

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