Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

A week ago, Anthony Albanese appeared well placed as the election was about to be called. Now he has comprehensively blown the first campaign week.

This isn’t to say he can’t recover. But it does raise big questions about his ability to perform under intense pressure, which has always been a concern for Labor, and about the competency of his campaign team.

We heard a lot in recent weeks about the slimmer, fitter, better- dressed opposition leader. He was “match fit”, they said. All okay, but there’s a lot more to being “match fit”.

What Labor needed this week was a sharper, edgier, supremely-prepared leader.

Now critics will say, “the media are being too hard – so what if he can’t recall a couple of numbers (even if they are the unemployment rate and the cash rate)?”

But details matter in the jungle of a campaign, where your opponent can inflict a nasty blow if you slip. And the media help in the process. With the 24 hour news cycle, it is nearly impossible to put a gaffe behind you. It is endlessly replayed.

Most importantly, when Albanese is trying to convince people he can match his opponent on economic competence, mistakes on basic numbers are doubly bad.

Focus groups are conducted all the time in campaigns by the political parties and media, and Albanese’s mistake has registered with participants. Although, it should be added, so did his apology.

In research for the University of Canberra and The Conversation this week in the seat of Wentworth, a male insurance worker said: “He’s a good guy but I’m not sure he’s up for it. It really wasn’t a good look yesterday that he couldn’t bring all those numbers up.”

A man working in IT said, “I’m a little concerned that he didn’t know just basic economic figures […] He owned up to it pretty quickly which made me like him a little bit more but at first I was alarmed”.

Wentworth is a contest between a Liberal MP and a high profile independent, but those involved in other focus group research have a similar story.

Albanese’s bad head for numbers was not his only problem in these first campaign days.

He foolishly exaggerated his economic credentials – which speaks to his desperation to establish them in the public mind.

He described himself on Tuesday as having been “an economic policy adviser to the Hawke government”, when he actually was a research officer to Tom Uren, at that stage a junior minister.

Karen Middleton in her biography, Albanese: Telling it Straight, says he wrote “reports and policy proposals”, including notes on the economy for Uren’s electors, and a position paper for the Left faction on dividend imputation before the 1985 tax summit.

On Thursday came a third own goal – this time leaving open a gate for the government to charge through.

Asked about border policy, Albanese reaffirmed Labor would turn back boats if they appeared. He also said offshore processing wouldn’t be needed if boats were turned back.

Taken literally, this was a statement of the obvious. But it invited an interpretation that Labor had scrapped its commitment to offshore processing. It hasn’t, but the slightest imprecision is dangerous because Labor has always been vulnerable on the issue.

Albanese clarified, but it had been another example of failing to take enough care.

Through the week, Albanese did try to smarten up his presentation, and make his news conferences tighter. However his preparation remains underdone, and within Labor there’s criticism of the narrowness of the group running things and the high degree of centralisation of the campaign.

A ragged week hits both a leader’s confidence and that of his team. How it shakes out will depend in part on whether the next round of polls show any shine has been taken off Labor’s vote.

Albanese’s problems have made Scott Morrison’s first week rather easier than he might have anticipated.

But by Thursday the prime minister was starting to feel the heat, with the travelling media peppering him over his stubborn resistance to setting up a robust integrity commission (rather than the pallid model he proposed).

It’s clear Morrison, who demands Labor agrees to his model before introducing legislation, has little intention of trying to forge a deal if re-elected. This will play poorly for him in the “teal” seats where high profile independents are challenging Liberal incumbents.

Morrison was appearing with the member for the Tasmanian seat of Bass, Bridget Archer, who crossed the floor in a bid for a debate on a crossbench bill for an integrity commission.

At Thursday’s news conference Archer acquitted herself as well as she could in the circumstances. But another Liberal candidate, Morrison’s “captain’s pick” for the Sydney seat of Warringah, held by independent Zali Steggall, was in a heap of trouble this week and the PM found himself in the middle of it.

Katherine Deves had social media posts last year (now deleted) that talked about transgender children being “surgically mutilated and sterilised” and criticised police for participating in “Wear it Purple” day, celebrating diversity.

Morrison on Monday praised Deves for “standing up for something really important” – that was, ensuring girls and women playing sport were “playing against people of the same sex”. Deves, he said, was “standing up for things that she believes in, and I share her views on those topics”.

By Wednesday, when more had come out about Daves, and she apologised for her inflammatory posts, Morrison said lamely “they’re not views that I was aware of”.

To which the obvious question was: why not?

Morrison and his factional ally, minister Alex Hawke, had delayed a batch of preselections until the last moment. Morrison had led the three-person selection committee for a suite of candidates, including the candidate for Warringah.

Why hadn’t the Liberal party vetted Deves properly? If it had, and was aware of the social media posts, did it think no one would notice?

It will be another mark against Morrison and Hawke when the election postmortem in NSW examines the preselection fiasco. That postmortem will be excoriating if Morrison loses, more benign is he wins.

Over Easter, the pace of campaigning slackens; the parties don’t stop but they try to match the rhythm of the holiday. Somewhat spooked by the early glitches and knowing Albanese needs a run of good weeks ahead, Labor is looking to Easter as a chance to regroup.

Many voters, meanwhile, will probably take the opportunity for a brief respite from all this politicking.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Grattan on Friday: Labor and Albanese hoping for Easter resurrection – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-labor-and-albanese-hoping-for-easter-resurrection-181349

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jeff Borland, Professor of Economics, The University of Melbourne

The official employment figures say the unemployment rate for March was 4.0%, exactly the same as a month earlier.

But if you’re prepared to download the spreadsheet and work it out, you’ll find that expressed to two decimal places the rate actually fell, from 4.04% to 3.95%.

The Bureau of Statistics confirms this by saying on its website that the unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points between February and March while also (apparently inconsistentlly) saying it was 4.0% in both months.

This result, clearly below 4%, is the lowest rate of unemployment Australia has seen since the monthly series of labour force statistics began in February 1978, and the lowest since the November quarter of 1974, almost 50 years ago, when the figures were quarterly.

After the decade up to March 2020 in which the rate hardly moved above 6% or below 5%, the new rate of 3.95% is an enormous step in the right direction.

But we need to worry about more than unemployment. Workers can be underemployed (getting less hours than they would like) and people who would like to work but think they won’t get work, may stop searching and not get recorded as unemployed.

There’s good news on both counts.

Less underemployment, fewer hidden unemployed

The proportion of workers underemployed has fallen from 9.3% prior to COVID in March 2020 to 6.6%. And rather than people withdrawing from the labour force and not looking for work, the rate at which people are either working or looking is up half a percentage point on before COVID.

As well, in an instance of the adage that a rising tide lifts all boats, young Australians who in the 2010s lost out as the economy slowed, now seem to be benefiting most from the pick-up.

Read more:
Forget the election gaffes: Australia’s unemployment rate is good news – and set to get even better by polling day

The proportion of young Australians who are employed is an extraordinary 4.6 percentage points higher than in March 2020.

This compares with an improvement of 1.9 percentage points for Australians aged 25 to 64 years, and 0.4 percentage point for Australians aged 65 years and over.

A rate of unemployment below 4% is certainly a positive. It means more of the nation’s productive resources are being used. It has improved the living standards of the 170,000 people employed today who would have not been, had unemployment remained where it was before COVID.

But those benefits will only stay in place as long as unemployment remains low. Our objective ought to be to keep it as low as possible for as long as possible.

How can we keep unemployment below 4%?

Unemployment fell below 4% because more of the population found work.

The economic stimulus the government provided to respond to COVID was built for a worst case that didn’t materialise – people generally kept their jobs. As a result it added to employment growth, and established that it was easier to get unemployment down than had been generally realised.

Read more:
Australia cut unemployment faster than predicted – why stop now?

This suggests that keeping unemployment below 4% will depend on being committed to that goal.

Much of the COVID stimulus has been saved and has yet to make its way into spending. This, and the new spending measures in the 2022 budget, are likely to maintain the impetus needed to keep unemployment low for the months ahead.

Beyond that, what happens to unemployment will depend on the next government’s decisions.

That 1.3 million extra jobs pledge

All this must mean the Coalition’s pledge to create 1.3 million extra jobs in the next five years is what’s needed. Well, maybe.

Certainly, employment has to grow for the rate of unemployment to stay low. But the absolute number of jobs only has relevance for the rate of unemployment when we also know what is happening to the number of people who want to work.

Depending on whether the keenness of Australians to get jobs (participation) increases at a faster or slower rate than employment, 1.3 million extra jobs could either cut the rate of unemployment or be insufficient to stop it climbing.

Read more:
Despite record vacancies, Australians shouldn’t expect big pay rises soon

Suppose 1.3 million jobs are created in the next five years as the Coalition has pledged, and all of them increase employment. And suppose also that the working age population and labour force participation rate grow at the same pace as for the past five years.

Then Australia’s rate of unemployment in five years time will be about 4.4%, which is higher rather than lower than it is today.

Ultimately what we care about is the proportion of the population that is in work, rather than the number of jobs created, which can be related to population.

A more meaningful pledge would be to keep unemployment at the lowest possible rate below 4% without causing excessive wage inflation.

Jeff Borland receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Technically our unemployment rate now begins with a ‘3’. How do we keep it there? – https://theconversation.com/technically-our-unemployment-rate-now-begins-with-a-3-how-do-we-keep-it-there-181242

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sam Baron, Associate professor, Australian Catholic University

Does time exist? The answer to this question may seem obvious: of course it does! Just look at a calendar or a clock.

But developments in physics suggest the non-existence of time is an open possibility, and one that we should take seriously.

How can that be, and what would it mean? It’ll take a little while to explain, but don’t worry: even if time doesn’t exist, our lives will go on as usual.

A crisis in physics

Physics is in crisis. For the past century or so, we have explained the universe with two wildly successful physical theories: general relativity and quantum mechanics.

Quantum mechanics describes how things work in the incredibly tiny world of particles and particle interactions. General relativity describes the big picture of gravity and how objects move.

Read more:
How Einstein’s general theory of relativity killed off common-sense physics

Both theories work extremely well in their own right, but the two are thought to conflict with one another. Though the exact nature of the conflict is controversial, scientists generally agree both theories need to be replaced with a new, more general theory.

Physicists want to produce a theory of “quantum gravity” that replaces general relativity and quantum mechanics, while capturing the extraordinary success of both. Such a theory would explain how gravity’s big picture works at the miniature scale of particles.

Time in quantum gravity

It turns out that producing a theory of quantum gravity is extraordinarily difficult.

One attempt to overcome the conflict between the two theories is string theory. String theory replaces particles with strings vibrating in as many as 11 dimensions.

However, string theory faces a further difficulty. String theories provide a range of models that describe a universe broadly like our own, and they don’t really make any clear predictions that can be tested by experiments to figure out which model is the right one.

Read more:
Explainer: String theory

In the 1980s and 1990s, many physicists became dissatisfied with string theory and came up with a range of new mathematical approaches to quantum gravity.

One of the most prominent of these is loop quantum gravity, which proposes that the fabric of space and time is made of a network of extremely small discrete chunks, or “loops”.

One of the remarkable aspects of loop quantum gravity is that it appears to eliminate time entirely.

Loop quantum gravity is not alone in abolishing time: a number of other approaches also seem to remove time as a fundamental aspect of reality.

Emergent time

So we know we need a new physical theory to explain the universe, and that this theory might not feature time.

Suppose such a theory turns out to be correct. Would it follow that time does not exist?

It’s complicated, and it depends what we mean by exist.

Theories of physics don’t include any tables, chairs, or people, and yet we still accept that tables, chairs and people exist.

Why? Because we assume that such things exist at a higher level than the level described by physics.

We say that tables, for example, “emerge” from an underlying physics of particles whizzing around the universe.

But while we have a pretty good sense of how a table might be made out of fundamental particles, we have no idea how time might be “made out of” something more fundamental.

So unless we can come up with a good account of how time emerges, it is not clear we can simply assume time exists.

Time might not exist at any level.

Time and agency

Saying that time does not exist at any level is like saying that there are no tables at all.

Trying to get by in a world without tables might be tough, but managing in a world without time seems positively disastrous.

Our entire lives are built around time. We plan for the future, in light of what we know about the past. We hold people morally accountable for their past actions, with an eye to reprimanding them later on.

Read more:
Time is but a dream … or is it?

We believe ourselves to be agents (entities that can do things) in part because we can plan to act in a way that will bring about changes in the future.

But what’s the point of acting to bring about a change in the future when, in a very real sense, there is no future to act for?

What’s the point of punishing someone for a past action, when there is no past and so, apparently, no such action?

The discovery that time does not exist would seem to bring the entire world to a grinding halt. We would have no reason to get out of bed.

Business as usual

There is a way out of the mess.

While physics might eliminate time, it seems to leave causation intact: the sense in which one thing can bring about another.

Perhaps what physics is telling us, then, is that causation and not time is the basic feature of our universe.

If that’s right, then agency can still survive. For it is possible to reconstruct a sense of agency entirely in causal terms.

At least, that’s what Kristie Miller, Jonathan Tallant and I argue in our new book.

We suggest the discovery that time does not exist may have no direct impact on our lives, even while it propels physics into a new era.

Sam Baron receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Time might not exist, according to physicists and philosophers – but that’s okay – https://theconversation.com/time-might-not-exist-according-to-physicists-and-philosophers-but-thats-okay-181268

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Bean, Senior Lecturer in Microbiology, Federation University Australia

In the past three months, more than 150 cases of salmonella food poisoning across Europe have been linked to Kinder chocolate products. Most of the cases have been in children under ten years old.

Health officials have traced the outbreak to bad milk in a factory in Belgium, and many products have been recalled from shelves as Easter approaches.

As consumers, we often think of the risk of food poisoning from raw or under-cooked meat, leftovers or even packaged salad. It’s less common to worry about chocolate.

Salmonella outbreaks in chocolate

While reports of salmonella bacteria in chocolate are not common, there have been several high-profile outbreaks. Most documented cases of salmonellosis have been in Europe and North America, perhaps because chocolate consumption is high and monitoring and surveillance is in place.

Outbreaks include:

• 1970: cocoa powder contaminated with salmonella was used in confectionery products and subsequently caused an outbreak that affected 110 people in Sweden

• 1973–74: 95 cases of salmonellosis, acquired from Christmas-wrapped chocolate balls, were reported in Canada and another 30 in the United States

• 1982–83: a salmonella outbreak involving 245 people in the United Kingdom was traced to two types of chocolate bars produced in Italy

• 1985–86: 33 cases of gastroenteritis due to salmonella were reported in Canada and the US, and eventually traced back to chocolate coins imported from Belgium

• 1987: 361 confirmed cases of salmonellosis in Norway and Finland were part of an outbreak linked to chocolate contaminated with salmonella (it is estimated the actual number of infections was 20,000-40,000)

• 2001–02: an outbreak of salmonella occurred in Germany, resulting in at least 439 reports of infection, traced to a specific brand of chocolate distributed exclusively through a single supermarket chain

• 2006: an outbreak in the UK was traced to chocolate, with 56 cases reported.

Why do salmonella outbreaks occur?

Chocolate begins its life as various agricultural products, the most important of which is cacao. Much of the world’s cacao comes from small farms in West Africa.

Beans from the cacao tree are harvested, fermented and dried on these farms. There are plenty of opportunities for the beans to become contaminated with salmonella from animals and the environment.

Read more:
Salmonella in your salad: the cost of convenience?

When the beans reach a chocolate factory, they are roasted. This will kill any salmonella on the beans. But if salmonella is present on the raw beans it can potentially be a source of contamination.

It is important raw beans are well segregated from roast beans to prevent cross-contamination.

As well as this segregation, chocolate factories must be well maintained and have risk-control mechanisms in place. The 2006 outbreak in the UK, for example, was ultimately linked to water leaks from pipes onto chocolate.

Salmonella in chocolate

Even when chocolate is made using appropriate food safety techniques, it has inherent properties that make it very capable of spreading bacteria.

While salmonella will not grow in chocolate (there isn’t enough water), it survives in chocolate very well. Chocolate may even protect the salmonella during its passage through the gut.

This means a batch of chocolate product contaminated with salmonella may remain a food safety risk for a long time and be distributed over a large geographical area. This explains why chocolate-related outbreaks can affect large numbers of people in multiple countries.

Another important consideration is who often consumes chocolate: children. Children are often disproportionately represented in these outbreaks and may be more susceptible to severe infections.

What can be done?

Most confectionery manufacturers operate under stringent guidelines to ensure quality and safety of their products. Good manufacturing processes and food safety guidelines are well established to ensure chocolate is safe.

Manufacturers would prefer to eliminate pathogens (disease causing microorganisms) such as salmonella in chocolate, or at least detect it during manufacturing.

Read more:
Christmas leftovers: how long is it safe to keep them?

However, the current Kinder recall and others like it are evidence of the system working, albeit late in the process. When a recall notice is issued, consumers should take the advice seriously.

So don’t put off a little Easter indulgence! In the absence of a recall notice in a specific product, it is safe to assume eating chocolate won’t make you sick – unless perhaps you over-indulge.

I previously worked at Mars as a Global Microbiology Food Safety Manager.

Andrew Greenhill does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Surprise! There might be salmonella in your chocolate – https://theconversation.com/surprise-there-might-be-salmonella-in-your-chocolate-180813

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Intifar Chowdhury, Associate lecturer, Australian National University

There have been suggestions Australia could see a “youthquake” at the upcoming May 21 election.

Spurred on by their suffering during COVID and anger about economic inequality, environmental inaction and toxicity in federal parliament, young people may flock to the polls.

But there is also a real risk they will do the opposite.

How many young people are enrolled?

As of March 2022, more than 1.6 billion 18-to-24 year-olds were enrolled. According to the Australian Electoral Commission, this is 85.4% of the group, which is slightly higher than the national target of 85% and similar to the 85.8% rate in March 2019.

This hopeful trend bolsters my recent research suggesting young Australians care as much about politics as their older counterparts. In the same study, I show short-term political, economic and social circumstances best explain electoral behaviours among Australian voters.

This means the pandemic, among other generation-defining events such as the 2019-20 bushfires and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, will likely influence the youth vote.

Read more:
Young Australians are supposedly ‘turning their backs’ on democracy, but are they any different from older voters?

What do young Australians care about?

The 2019 Australian Election Study found 66% of all voters surveyed cast their ballot based on key policy issues – the most important was the economy, followed by health and medicare.

But there was considerable difference in what concerned younger voters. Half of 18-to-24-year-old voters surveyed identified an environmental issue as their top consideration in the 2019 election. Among economic issues, they were particularly concerned about property prices.

In 2022, these issues will continue to be front-of-mind for young people.

Under 30s, who work in hospitality and other casual jobs, have borne the brunt of pandemic job uncertainty. They are likely to stumble out of the pandemic with shrinking incomes, mounting HECS debt and alarming rates of underemployment.

On top of this, they are facing increasing living costs and a housing affordability crisis.

Young people were at the back of the queue for COVID vaccines and have reported a spike in mental health issues as a result of lockdowns and pandemic-related isolation and stress.

Environment and equality

Social and environmental issues are also likely to factor into young people’s votes.

Young women such as Chanel Contos, Brittany Higgins and Grace Tame have lead the national conversation about the treatment of women and consent over the past 12 months. We know there is significant community anger about the treatment of women – as seen by the thousands who have turned out to march to demand gender equality.

Continuous mistreatment of women in federal politics is not good news for either major party. Understandably, young Australian women are unimpressed by the handling of women’s safety: so it won’t be surprising if they abandon both the major parties at the poll.

We also know young people care deeply about climate change and are very cynical about the major parties’ ability to deliver meaningful action.

This presents a real opportunity for the Australian Greens and their climate policies. The long-term voting patterns of voters aged 18 to 34 show although Labor attracts more young people than the Liberals, both major parties have been losing their youth vote to the Greens over the past few decades.

In fact, the 2019 election exhibited the lowest Liberal party vote on record for this age group (23%) and the highest on record for the Greens (28%). The ALP received 37%.

Read more:
‘We get the raw deal out of almost everything’: a quarter of young Australians are pessimistic about having kids

Young Australians at the polls…or not?

In a recent analysis, I suggest the cocktail of pandemic-related stresses is forging a generation of more financially aware, politically engaged, and resilient young people.

However, growing distrust of politicians may stand in the way.

In Australia, young people largely blame their growing wariness of government leaders on factors like poor performance. In 2004, an electoral commission study found that first-time voters thought of politicians as promise-breakers who are not interested in young people and behave badly in parliament. This has not changed. In fact, the entire electorate’s confidence in the moral integrity of politicians reached its lowest level last year, dropping by nearly 20% since 2007.

Compulsory voting might tie young citizens to the Australian political system, but this significant decline in trust, together with a pandemic fatigue, might make them less enthused about casting their vote.

Historically, defying international trends, young Australians have been as diligent as older Australians about turning up on election day. But the 2022 election will test this.

Although not part of a significant trend, inner-city electorates did see a drop in youth vote in 2019, reminding us that issues of the time can sway some young people away from the polls.

Either way, more than ever, the youth vote will be crucial for the upcoming federal election.

Read more:
At 16, Australians can drive, work and apply for the army – so why can’t they vote?

Intifar Chowdhury does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What will young Australians do with their vote – are we about to see a ‘youthquake’? – https://theconversation.com/what-will-young-australians-do-with-their-vote-are-we-about-to-see-a-youthquake-180883

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tom van Laer, Associate Professor of Narratology, University of Sydney

The federal election campaign is underway and political advertising has really started to ramp up. But who is the target audience for each party’s ad, what are their key messages and how effective will they be?

I research how people or organisations use stories to effect change such as political advertising in entertainment. When I look at each party’s early campaign ads, here’s what stands out for me.

The Greens: hope, change, power

The key message at the centre of The Greens ads is hope.

This ad aims to draw attention to “the people demanding change” giving rise to hope – a message that will hit hardest in the early stages of the campaign.

Hope is a powerfully motivating emotion. Probably the most famous recent example is Barack Obama’s “Yes, we can!”, used in a popular poster that boosted interest in his campaign.

Science suggests hope does not make people remember new policy positions or political personalities. However, voters who already wanted strong climate action, will be more hopeful and likely to cast their actual vote for the Greens after viewing this commercial.

Labor: a straightforward argument

The Labor Party relies on arguments as a means of persuading voters:

Labor wants to persuade Australian voters that the future will be better if you vote for them, underpinned by five key premises: Labor will manufacture more things here, make child care cheaper, lower power bills, invest in fee-free TAFE, and strengthen Medicare.

The argument follows a “topdown” structure, starting out with a general statement idea – that for a better future Australia needs to more local manufacturing, cheaper child care, lower power bills, fee-free TAFE, and stronger Medicare.

From this, a more specific, logical conclusion derived – that Labor can deliver these things to you, the voter.

Whether or not this argument resonates with voters depends firstly on the extent to which voters want these things and secondly on whether they believe Labor can make them happen.

Liberal Party: contempt

The Liberal Party’s ads focus attention on contempt for Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese:

Contempt is an intense, powerful emotion with clear influence on voters. Contempt encourages avoidance; we try to create as much distance between us and the subject of contempt as we can. Such a response is seldom reasoned, which can make it difficult to counter.

The Liberal Party’s ads aim to make us link Albanese – and by extension, Labor – with a sense of contempt and disgust.

The emotion in these ads seems to be directed at undecided voters, in an effort to harden attitudes.

The National Party: one good turn deserves another

The National Party’s ads centre on the idea of reciprocity.

The ads hinge on two crucial ideas:

1) if voters want to keep bringing regional Australia to life, they need to give their vote to the Nationals

2) one good turn deserves another; since regional Australia has received from the Nationals, the ads imply, they should give something back.

This network of obligations enables the National Party to forge relationships with regional voters. Failure to honour and observe the rule of reciprocity is deeply frowned upon among many regional Australians; the rule of reciprocity is so influential it does not matter how much regional Australians like the National Party.

If the Nationals do regional Australia a favour, then plenty of regional Australians may feel obliged to do something in return.

People are inclined to reciprocate not only because they are afraid of being judged negatively, but also because they consider it the right thing to do.

The United Australia Party: ‘that’s my kind of party’

This United Australia Party (UAP) ad uses music to create a particular ambience.

Music’s behavioural influence is often automatic and the effect considerable.

The attention-grabbing song in this ad – “That’s my kind of party. The United Australia Party” – is energetic. It inspires action. It also positions the UAP as an alternative to the major parties.

This ad may be targeting a voter who either feels voting is not that important or that all the major parties are similar. It may hit a note with a voter who is hesitating about where to direct their vote and is tired of the usual political offerings.

Tom van Laer is a member of the National Tertiary Education Union.

– ref. Hope? Contempt? Reciprocity? How each political party’s election ads reveal their key messages – https://theconversation.com/hope-contempt-reciprocity-how-each-political-partys-election-ads-reveal-their-key-messages-176676

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Kemish, Adjunct Professor, School of Historical and Philosophical Inquiry, The University of Queensland

This is part of a foreign policy election series looking at how Australia’s relations with the world have changed since the Morrison government came to power. You can read the first piece in the series here.

Successive Australian governments have lined up over recent decades to emphasise the importance of the Pacific region to Australian interests. While there are some differences in emphasis between the two major parties’ approach to the Pacific, we can expect considerable continuity in Australia’s approach to the region if there is a change of government in May.

Regional capitals will be early destinations for newly-elected ministers. The Pacific will remain the main focus of the Australian aid program, and the Australian Defence Force will continue to provide humanitarian support following natural disasters, as it has for decades. Economic integration with the region will remain a priority, as will labour market access.

But the stakes rose significantly for Australia last month, when a leaked draft security agreement between China and Solomon Islands confirmed Beijing’s intention to deploy military and police to the country, and to secure a potential supply base there for its warships.

Both sides of politics consider this to be an unwelcome development for Australian national security. It also highlights that a “business as usual” Australian approach to the Pacific is no longer enough.

Coalition’s record in the region

The Coalition points to the Pacific Step-up program, first announced by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in 2016, to illustrate how seriously it takes the region. As part of this, Australia has sustained its major aid effort in the Pacific, while pivoting over the past two years to respond to the challenges of COVID-19.

The government’s commitment also takes in a significant new infrastructure financing initiative. This invests in upgrades to Fiji’s airport and a new undersea internet cable between the Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati and Nauru.

A long history of bipartisan agreement

As the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade acknowledges, the Pacific Step-up actually builds on over half a century of “sustained engagement” in the Pacific.

This bipartisan history takes in Labor government initiatives such as the 2008 Port Moresby Declaration, a landmark Australian commitment to work with Pacific nations on economic development and climate change. It also includes the resulting Pacific Islands Partnerships for Development, aimed at improving health, education and employment outcomes in the region.

Since 2013, we have seen fresh determination in Canberra to counter Chinese strategic inroads in the region, as well.

These initiatives include the Coral Sea cable, which provides secure telecommunications to PNG and Solomon Islands, and Telstra’s government-backed investment in regional telecom company Digicel. While these are aimed at improving regional infrastructure, they are also clearly designed to deny Chinese firms such as Huawei access to the sensitive regional telecommunications sector.

If these have been tactical wins for the current Australian government, China’s deal with Solomon Islands is undoubtedly a setback. It has prompted serious concern in Washington and other capitals.

Responding to China will require a collaborative response that draws on the voices of the Pacific Island nations that share Australia’s concerns. There are serious hazards for fragile Pacific nations in Beijing’s hunger for resources, its growing military engagement across the region and the scale of its lending patterns.

Australia will also need to work harder to avoid the impression that its focus on the region has been motivated only by an impulse to counter China’s reach.

Read more:
The AUKUS pact, born in secrecy, will have huge implications for Australia and the region

New focus on regional security threats

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has won praise from some for his personal tone and language when engaging with regional audiences. This includes positioning Australia as a proud member of the Pacific “family”.

But his foreign policy address to the Lowy Institute in March struck a different tone. The prime minister depicted Australia’s neighbourhood as a geo-strategic theatre brimming with threats, rather than a place of collaboration or opportunity. He was speaking to a domestic audience against the backdrop of Russia’s war in Ukraine, but they will have been listening in the Pacific, too.

Last year, several Pacific leaders and senior community representatives expressed real disquiet in the aftermath of the AUKUS announcement about what they saw as a disrespectful lack of forewarning and the impact of growing strategic competition on a vulnerable region.

Fijian Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama told the UN General Assembly that Australia and its AUKUS partners should shift their focus to what the Pacific sees as the highest priority.

If we can spend trillions on missiles, drones, and nuclear submarines, we can fund climate action.

Opportunities for Labor

This is where a Labor government would have a significant opportunity to differentiate itself in the eyes of the region.

Pacific countries have consistently made it clear they see climate change as an overriding, existential challenge. The current government’s measures to support climate change resilience and renewable energy projects have generally been been drowned out by an entrenched regional belief that Australia has been a laggard on this issue.

Labor has signalled it will respond seriously to this concern. In his own address to the Lowy Institute in March, Opposition leader Anthony Albanese said he would elevate climate change to a national security issue. He also highlighted Labor’s intention to join Pacific countries in hosting a special regional climate conference.

Simply holding a conference like this would undoubtedly have a positive symbolic impact across the region and help reset Australia’s global climate credentials.

Foreign Affairs Shadow Minister Penny Wong has also said Labor would draw more strategically on Australia’s multicultural strengths, including its Indigenous cultures, to improve engagement with the Pacific.

While DFAT has done solid work in developing an Indigenous diplomacy agenda, it has yet to be folded into the foreign policy mainstream or applied deliberately in dealings with the region. These kinds of soft diplomacy strategies should not be underestimated for their symbolic importance.

Read more:
With Dutton in defence, the Morrison government risks progress on climate and Indigenous affairs

Major challenges ahead

There is little sign the strategic competition in the region will lessen over the coming Australian term of government. And the Pacific Island nations will quickly throw up challenges to whoever is in power after the election.

The rift in the Pacific Islands Forum remains a serious issue, and independence movements in Bougainville and New Caledonia will likely pose fresh strategic challenges.

COVID also remains a pressing issue in the region. But Australia will need to lift its strategic gaze beyond the immediate health concerns to build partnerships to address the pandemic’s longer-term impact on Pacific societies. This is especially true in the education sector, where COVID has reversed decades of hard-won gains and removed millions of children – especially girls – from school.

Whoever wins in May, flexibility and a genuine commitment to partnership with the Pacific family will be the key factors in success.

Ian Kemish AM is a former Australian diplomat who served, among other roles, as Australian High Commissioner to Papua New Guinea. He chairs the Kokoda Track Foundation, which receives Australian Government support for its work in PNG, and is the Pacific representative for the Global Partnership for Education. He is a nonresident fellow with the Lowy Institute, and represents Bower Group Asia in the region.

– ref. How should the next Australian government handle the Pacific? – https://theconversation.com/how-should-the-next-australian-government-handle-the-pacific-178534

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Olivia Johnston, Lecturer, Edith Cowan University

Many Australian schools still use “streaming”, where students are separated into classes based on ability. However, not all students see streaming as beneficial.

My research, published in the journal Research Papers in Education, found streaming caused some students to feel unduly pressured, privileged, disempowered, and misunderstood.

Some students in higher-ability classes said they felt more confident and motivated, but students in lower streams reported conforming to teachers’ low expectations for achievement.

Read more:
Selective schools mainly ‘select’ advantage, so another one won’t ease Sydney’s growing pains

Students see less opportunity in lower streams

In Australia, there is no official educational policy on streaming (also known as tracking, setting, or “between-class ability grouping”). Schools make local decisions about if and how to stream students.

My recent research in Western Australia shows students themselves can experience the inequity embedded in streaming. I followed 25 year 10 students across their school days for one week of school. I did more than 100 interviews with the students and conducted 175 classroom observations.

The research revealed some students in lower streams found their learning opportunities were limited. Student in the higher streams had different exams, assignments, grading, and excursions than students in lower streams.

Ryan* discussed how in the higher stream, they “got to build roller coasters” while students in the lower stream were “just building bridges.”

Students also expressed frustration their capacity to succeed was limited by streaming.

Jerome said that in a lower streamed class

The highest mark you can get in that class is a C!

Moving up between streams highlighted the difference for students too. Curt remembered it was like he “skipped a year.”

Krissy said “there is a big gap of knowledge” when you “move up” to a higher stream.

Some students in higher streams welcomed the challenge of more difficult learning and extra opportunities. They felt motivated by the additional opportunities and, as Jenny put it, “wanted to be pushed” because it made them “feel good about themselves.”

For other students, streaming felt restrictive. These students felt their teachers saw them in a way that didn’t match how they saw themselves.

Not seen as individuals

Many students felt their teachers had conceptualised their ability because of the streamed class they were in, rather than seeing them as individuals.

Being expected to perform at a higher level academically felt constrictive and unwelcome for some students.

Jessica, for instance, resisted being told to do more difficult work in higher streams. When her teacher told her the work she was doing was Year 11 work she responded by thinking

Why can’t we do Year 10 work? What happened to the Year 10 work?

Other higher stream students also felt unmotivated by being assigned work they found too difficult. Rochelle avoided her maths teacher and the learning, saying:

Some of the math, she’s like doing stuff on the board and I’m just like [wide eyes] oh my God. This is too hard […] If I don’t get it, I’m like, I lose motivation.

Students in lower streams complied with their teachers’ low expectations for learning. Jerome said his teacher

[…] understands what class we’re in, like everyone’s just, no one really cares. So she does understand if I don’t really focus that much.

Many of these students felt they didn’t fit in with the teachers’ homogeneous expectations for streamed classes.

Calling out inequity

Not all students accepted streaming. Some felt undue pressure and privilege in higher streamed classes.

Jessica noticed she and her classmates in higher streamed classes sometimes had to do extra tests her friends in different classes got to skip.

It’s really like, ‘is this really fair?’ Because I’m getting all this extra stress, and like, it’s helping me, but it’s not like 100%.

Sarah noticed students in the higher streams “had the privilege to go on a lot of excursions” while students in lower steams didn’t. She said she thought it’d be better if there was no streaming.

I don’t think there should be a (higher streamed) class […] I think it’s better with everyone fair, and everyone should do the same.

These students questioned the fairness of streaming, even while acknowledging the privileges of being in the higher streamed class.

Poor behaviour in lower streams makes learning harder

Poor behaviour in lower streams made it difficult for students already struggling at school.

Asher, who was in a lower streamed class, said:

They’re not learning because they’re always mucking around, and it takes away from everyone else’s ability to learn because the teacher’s preoccupied dealing with them […] And we’re behind a whole assessment because of the people in our class.

Other students described their peers in lower streams as “naughty”, “noisy”, “rowdy” or “messing around.”

Students in higher streamed classes noticed and appreciated how being streamed protected them from poor behaviour of students in the lower streams. Rochelle said she’d felt “distracted” in the lower streams, but since moving the higher stream found “things have changed […] my class is pretty good.”

Since moving to the higher streamed class, Curt noticed “everyone focuses.” This had not been his experience in the lower streamed classes.

Clustering students who have difficulty achieving at school can lead to more behaviour problems in lower streamed groups.

Streaming can perpetuate disadvantage

A growing body of research has identified a link between streaming and equity issues.

Critics of streaming say it is an ineffective way to cater to the varied needs of students and that it can perpetuate social inequality (because students from lower socio-economic backgrounds and minorities are often placed in “bottom” groups, where their opportunities to learn are limited).

Education researcher John Hattie has said streaming (or “tracking”) says to kids that “this is where you perform” and it presents equity issues.

Yet, teachers in Australia often believe streaming is beneficial because it allows them to meet students’ learning needs more effectively.

So what should educators do?

Schools, educators and policymakers making decisions about streaming should consider students’ experiences and take into account how streaming helps perpetuate cycles of disadvantage. Policymakers could look to guidelines aimed at reducing the inequality associated with it.

All students deserve the opportunity to learn well and to confront limiting expectations and prove them wrong. My research shows students want to be taught and seen as individuals – unconstrained by labels and assumptions.

We should take care adults’ socially-contrived notions of student “ability” don’t place limits on their capacity to succeed at school.

* All names have been changed to protect the students’ identities.

Read more:
More stress, unclear gains: are selective schools really worth it?

Olivia Johnston has previously received research funding from the Fogarty Foundation, the Western Australian Institute for Educational Research, and the Australian government Research Training Program. This story is part of The Conversation’s Breaking the Cycle series, which is about escaping cycles of disadvantage. It is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay Foundation.

– ref. ‘Is this really fair?’ How high school students feel about being streamed into different classes based on ‘ability’ – https://theconversation.com/is-this-really-fair-how-high-school-students-feel-about-being-streamed-into-different-classes-based-on-ability-180965

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anika Stobart, Associate, Grattan Institute

So the federal election is on. Billboards are suddenly plastered with party slogans, campaign ads are all around us, and our social media feeds are flaring up with political spin.

Political advertising is a major feature of Australian election campaigns. But sometimes it can be difficult to separate facts from scare campaigns, or even to distinguish a government ad from a party ad.

So what are the rules that govern political advertising in the upcoming election campaign?

Read more:
As federal government spending on small transport projects creeps up, marginal seats get a bigger share

There are very few restrictions on political advertising

Political advertising seeks to promote a political party, candidate, or political agenda. These ads can come from political parties themselves, or from anyone else who wants to influence voters and can afford to pay for one.

We have already seen several major advertising campaigns launched for this election, including the Coalition’s “Why I love Australia”, Labor’s “A better future”, and a series of prominent United Australia Party ads.

There are no limits on how much political parties, independent candidates, or third parties can spend in a federal election. So the race is on to raise more money than your opponents so that you can spread your message further and wider.

Some funding also comes from the taxpayer to help cover campaign expenses, such as advertising. The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) reimburses parties or candidates for some of their spending according to the share of the primary vote they achieve in the election. In the last federal election this amounted to A$70 million in funding.

Political ads need only meet some basic requirements, which are monitored by the AEC and the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA).

These include identifying who authorised the ad – that’s the bit at the end of a TV or radio ad that sounds like someone trying to break a fast-talking record – and not misleading voters on how to cast a vote.

If an ad encourages voters to fill out their voting paper incorrectly, the AEC can intervene, but only to correct that specific part of the ad. ACMA also enforces a “blackout period” on TV and radio ads in the final few days before election day.

Truth is not a requirement

When it comes to the content of political ads, there is almost no oversight.

Political ads are not fact-checked. The truth or otherwise of what is said in a political ad is left up to the voter to determine for themselves.

It’s worth noting this hands-off approach is very different to strict rules around commercial advertising. Where a company is alleged to have misled consumers about a product or service, the matter is investigated, the ad may be pulled, and the company could face fines or further penalties. But there are no consequences for political parties if they lie to voters in their ads.

That means bad-faith characterisations of other parties’ policies – or even flatly inaccurate ones – are perfectly OK under the law.

That’s how misleading scare campaigns have been allowed to feature so prominently in recent elections.

During the 2019 election campaign, the Coalition hit Labor with false advertising about “death taxes”. And Labor ran the false “Mediscare” campaign against the Coalition at the 2016 election. Neither of these campaigns broke any rules.

Democratic politics, and election campaigns in particular, are naturally a contest of ideas. They involve values, promises, “blue sky” thinking, and unproveable claims.

But deliberately false and misleading advertising hurts the democratic process. It can divert voter attention from the real issues and potentially distort election outcomes.

In an attempt to tackle this problem, both South Australia and the ACT have enacted truth in political advertising laws at the state level. At the federal level, however, it’s a case of anything goes.

What about government advertising?

Government advertising is different – or it’s supposed to be. It’s advertising funded by the taxpayer for the legitimate purpose of enabling the government of the day to communicate important information to the public.

Government advertising includes, for example, public campaigns to remind people to get their booster shots, or information on how to access assistance in a domestic violence situation.

But sometimes government advertising can shade into political advertising, particularly when governments make ads spruiking their own performance.

Government advertising often ramps up in the pre-election period. We’ve seen some examples of this recently, in the recent blue-shaded advertisements about “Australia’s Economic Plan”, or “Making Positive Energy”. It’s not clear what public benefit is served by ads like these.

Government advertising is subject to guidelines that require campaigns to be justified, objective, and fair, and prohibit the promotion of political party interests. But these guidelines are not enforceable.

The Independent Communications Committee reviews all campaigns costing more than $250,000, but it only sees them at the proposal stage, and can only provide advice to government.

It has no power to veto a proposed ad campaign.

What can we expect during the election period?

We probably won’t be seeing much government advertising over the coming weeks.

The government is now in “caretaker” mode. Caretaker conventions state the Department of Finance and the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet must review all taxpayer-funded advertising and make recommendations on whether the campaigns should proceed or be deferred.

If a campaign gets the green light, the government still has to get the Opposition’s approval. As a result, any government advertising that looks suspiciously like government self-promotion tends to disappear during elections.

But when it comes to political advertising, the sky is the limit – at least while parties’ campaign funds hold out.

We can expect political ads to continue to ramp up over the coming weeks. The onus will be on each voter to sift through the spin for the facts and for the policies that matter to them.

Read more:
The vomit principle, the dead bat, the freeze: how political spin doctors’ tactics aim to shape the news

The Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute’s activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities as disclosed on its website.

Kate Griffiths does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Few restrictions, no spending limit, and almost no oversight: welcome to political advertising in Australia – https://theconversation.com/few-restrictions-no-spending-limit-and-almost-no-oversight-welcome-to-political-advertising-in-australia-181248

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Griffin, Associate Professor, Infectious Diseases and Microbiology, The University of Queensland

It seems every few weeks we hear about a new COVID variant, and it’s hard to know how concerned we ought to be.

A “recombinant” variant has emerged, dubbed “Omicron XE”, which is the result of two omicron strains merging together in a single host and then going on to infect others.

So what do we know about this new hybrid, and do we need to worry?

Read more:
What’s the difference between mutations, variants and strains? A guide to COVID terminology

A bit about Omicron and its variants

Omicron is a variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that was first discovered in Botswana on November 11 2021 and designated a variant of concern by the WHO on November 26. Since this time, it has been transmitted worldwide and replaced Delta to become the dominant variant.

Omicron has since continued to evolve to have multiple different lineages, or genetically related subvariants. This includes the original Omicron BA.1 (B.1.1.529) and also BA.2 and BA.3.

BA.2 is more infectious than BA.1 and has now taken over or outcompeted BA.1 to become the new dominant form of the SARS-CoV-2 virus worldwide, with the WHO officially announcing this to be the case on March 22 2022.

The differences we have seen with Omicron relative to previous variants are explained by the relatively large number of mutations it has acquired, with 60 mutations not found in the original virus arising from Wuhan, China.

Among these mutations are 32 genetic changes in the spike protein. The spike protein is the part of the virus it uses to attach to human cells, as well as the target of the immune response against the virus, from both vaccines and prior infection.

BA.2 shares many of these same mutations as the original Omicron variant, but also has 28 unique genetic changes of its own. Four of these genetic changes are in the spike protein, which explains why some of its characteristics are different to the original Omicron variant (BA.1), including the fact it appears to be approximately 30 to 50% more infectious than BA.1.

Read more:
BA.2 is like Omicron’s sister. Here’s what we know about it so far

What’s a ‘recombinant’?

Just as we have seen new variants arise, followed by the evolution of subvariants or different lineages, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has continued to change in other ways as well. In recent times we have seen not just spontaneous changes in the genetic code that have accounted for the changes described above, but also so-called recombinants.

A recombinant is where related viruses exchange genetic material to create offspring with genetic material from both parent viruses. This can arise when viruses of two different strains (or variants or subvariants) co-infect the same cell.

The genetic material of the viruses can get mixed and packaged together to make a new recombinant virus, with properties of either or both parent viruses. The properties of the recombinant virus therefore depend on which parts of the genetic material from the parent viruses make it into the new version – just like you might have your mum’s nose and your dad’s knees.

When Delta and Omicron recombine, the resulting progeny have been referred to as “Deltacron” (although more officially these are referred to as XD and XF). This type of recombinant was first identified in France in mid-February and seems to have a genetic sequence mostly the same as Delta, but with aspects of the spike protein from Omicron BA.1.

So what is XE and where is it spreading?

XE is a recombination of BA.1 and BA.2. There are many other BA.1 and BA.2 recombinants, including XQ in the UK, XG from Denmark, XJ from Finland and XK from Belgium.

While XE still comprises a small proportion of total sequenced cases, it has shown evidence of community transmission, at least within England where it was first detected in mid-January. There have now been just over 1,100 cases recorded.

It has also been identified in India, China and Thailand. Initially the growth rate for XE appeared to not be significantly different from BA.2, but more recent data from the UK suggests it has a growth rate of around 10 to 20% above that of BA.2.

This data remains preliminary and based on small numbers, so may change as we get more information. If it is true, then this means XE is likely to be slightly more contagious than BA.2, which was slightly more contagious than BA.1, which was more contagious than Delta.

Do we need to worry?

Our immune response that helps to protect against COVID-19 is generated by vaccination or from previous infection, and it mostly targets the spike protein. Given XE basically has the same spike protein as BA.2, it doesn’t appear our protection against XE will be significantly reduced.

While this is something public health agencies and expert groups certainly should monitor, and they are, it isn’t really something that is unexpected given the number of cases we continue to see worldwide. So it shouldn’t be a cause of extra concern for the general public.

The best way to slow the emergence of new variants, as well as recombinants, remains having as many people in the world protected by vaccination to reduce the pool of susceptible hosts in which these events can occur.

Paul Griffin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What’s the new Omicron XE variant and should I be worried? – https://theconversation.com/whats-the-new-omicron-xe-variant-and-should-i-be-worried-180584

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elizabeth Westrupp, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, Deakin University

You’re leaving for your family Easter lunch, trying to make sure all children are wearing shoes and socks. Then you’re hit with the dreaded question, “Dad, is the Easter bunny real?”.

For many families, Easter traditions bring a special kind of magic for both children and adults. Like Santa and the tooth fairy, the Easter bunny represents the pure innocence and fun of childhood. With a dash of imagination, and plenty of beautifully wrapped chocolate, what could go wrong?

Well, unfortunately, the truth may be what goes wrong, leading to tears for disappointed children.

Thankfully, there are ways to manage this situation gracefully and even use it as a learning opportunity.

Family traditions and Easter

Some families organise Easter egg hunts in the backyard or park for children to find eggs the Easter bunny leaves behind. Some families create magic through shared games, gifts and delicious food, without telling white lies about the Easter bunny.

However, whatever holiday traditions you follow in your family, children often hear about the Easter bunny at school.

So even if you don’t welcome the Easter bunny into your family, you may still be faced with the dreaded question.

Read more:
The Easter Bunny tale: fun fiction or harmful myth?

Part of a rich storytelling tradition

Storytelling has played a rich part in our human history and evolution. When we tell stories to children, we teach them about about social norms – the rules and expectations society expects of us all.

Santa and the tooth fairy teach children about socially desirable behaviour – behave well and you’ll be rewarded. The Easter bunny teaches children about celebration and showing appreciation through giving gifts.

Children are usually very good at separating the unreal from the real. Depending on the circumstances, this can even be as young as three years old.

The strength of children’s beliefs is directly related to the amount of supporting “evidence” they’ve experienced over the years.

Beliefs about cultural figures, such as the Easter bunny and Santa, are often stronger than beliefs about fictional television or book characters (such as SpongeBob SquarePants or Frozen’s Elsa). That’s because rituals for Easter and Christmas are so widespread and are reinforced in western society.

Children’s beliefs are often stronger in families where parents provide more detail about the story or ritual, or if parents go the extra mile in providing evidence by putting out carrots for the Easter bunny, or milk and cookies for Santa.

Read more:
Why do we tell stories? Hunter-gatherers shed light on the evolutionary roots of fiction

It’s a time to celebrate

There’s some loss for kids in finding out the truth, but there’s also a gain.

The process of children finding out the truth can be a really important learning experience for your child. Asking questions (about the Easter bunny or other tricky matters) develops their critical thinking skills, important milestones in child development.

However awkward you may feel, such critical thinking should be celebrated and supported.

So, what shall I say?

You’ll be relieved to know you can handle the question, “Is the Easter bunny real?” without ruining the magic and ritual of Easter.

If your child is questioning and unsure

To support your child, you can relax, listen carefully and be guided by your child. Aim to answer questions in a simple, straight-forward way. But remember, you don’t need to give the answer straight away.

You might say: “Hmm, can you tell me why you think the Easter bunny might not be real?”

When children learn their parents will always listen to them, take them seriously, and answer their questions as best they can, this will strengthen their bond by building trust.

If your child has heard other kids asking

Some kids may be asking about the Easter bunny because they’ve heard other kids asking the question, but make it clear to you in other ways they still want to believe.

You might say: “Even though other kids are asking about it, it sounds like you still believe in the Easter bunny? Should we see what happens this year?”.

If your child is sad about the truth

For most kids, finding out the truth is a positive experience. But some may feel really sad and upset when they find out. For these kids, it will help if parents acknowledge and validate their feelings.

You might say: “I know it feels so sad and disappointing to find out the Easter bunny isn’t real.”

Celebrate the moment

Parents can also talk about how it’s such a big important milestone for kids to be ready for the truth.

You might say: “All kids hear the story about the Easter bunny, and when they figure out it’s not real, it’s a really special moment. It shows how much you’ve grown and how clever you are at working things out on your own. I think we should celebrate!”

Coming-of-age tradition

Parents might also want to turn the occasion into a positive coming-of-age tradition, where they learn Easter is about family togetherness and celebration.

You might tell your child: “Even though there’s no actual Easter bunny, the magic of Easter is really about doing all the fun things together with our family and friends, and showing each other we love them by giving chocolate gifts.”

Kids like to feel involved, so you could ask: “What would you like to keep doing each year to keep the magic of Easter alive?”

Read more:
Why children really believe in Santa – the surprising psychology behind tradition

When are kids ready to hear the answer?

In advising parents, my usual rule of thumb is, if a child is asking a question, they’re ready to hear the answer. This goes for all topics, including painful or embarrassing ones.

But kids communicate in a number of ways, so take your lead from your child.

Every child is different, and although all kids pass through broad developmental stages, some kids may want to hold onto beliefs about the Easter bunny and Santa for longer.

Read more:
7 ways to make Easter safe and inclusive for children with food allergies

Rope in the older kids

How do you handle the situation where there are children of different ages in the family? If parents want younger children in the family to believe in the Easter bunny, it may work to “recruit” older children in on the secret.

Older kids are more likely to support the magic of the Easter bunny for their younger brothers and sisters if they feel important and are part of something special.

However, if the younger child learns from their older sibling the Easter bunny isn’t real, that’s OK too. Older siblings can help younger kids develop a range of complex cognitive skills. Watching bigger kids find out the truth about the Easter bunny may help everyone.

Elizabeth Westrupp does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Is the Easter bunny real? How to answer, according to a psychologist – https://theconversation.com/is-the-easter-bunny-real-how-to-answer-according-to-a-psychologist-180320

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Carol Maher, Professor, Medical Research Future Fund Emerging Leader, University of South Australia

We’ve all heard those people who say “running gives you a high” or “exercise is addictive,” but for many of us, it’s hard to love exercise. Some might even say they hate it, dread it, or the thought of going to the gym gives them anxiety.

Why do some of us hate exercise? And how can we overcome this to reap the lifesaving benefits of getting the body moving?

Humans didn’t evolve to ‘exercise’

Throughout most of human history, food was scarce and being active wasn’t a choice. For millennia, humans had to move to find food, and once they were fed, they rested to conserve energy, because they didn’t know where their next meal was coming from.

So, if you have the urge to sit down and watch Netflix rather than going to the gym, you might take solace in the knowledge resting is a natural human tendency.

Having said that, our 21st-century lifestyles involve far too much sitting and resting. With technology, cars, and other labour-saving devices, moving is no longer necessary for daily survival.

Yet, being physically inactive is terrible for our health. A meta-analysis published in prestigious medical journal The Lancet found physical inactivity is associated with a 30-40% increased risk of colon cancer, 30% increased risk of breast cancer, 20-60% increased risk of type 2 diabetes, and a 30-50% higher risk of premature death, compared with being physically active.

So how much physical activity do you actually need?

It’s recommended Australian adults (aged 18-65) get at least 150 (though preferably 300) minutes of moderate-intensity physical activity each week. Moderate intensity exercise might be a brisk walk, light cycle or mowing the lawn.

If you are willing to do vigorous physical activity, you only need half that (75-150 minutes per week). Vigourous activity is anything strenuous enough you would struggle to have a conversation: jogging, or running around playing a sport like footy or tennis.

A variety of activity types are encouraged since different physical activities entail different benefits. Muscle-strengthening exercises, like lifting weights or doing push ups, are encouraged twice a week, to keep bones and muscles strong.

If that is all starting to sound too complicated, rest assured ANY exercise is good for you. You don’t have to achieve the physical activity guidelines to benefit from physical activity.

What are some science-backed tips for getting motivated?

According to psychologists there are two main types of motivation: extrinsic and intrinsic motivation. Intrinsic motivation arises from within – doing something for the personal reward or challenge of it. Extrinsic motivation comes from external factors, like trying to earn a reward or avoid a punishment.

You can boost your intrinsic motivation by identifying why exercising is important to you.

1. Identify your “why” – do you want to exercise for your health? Is it for your kids? Is it for how working out makes you feel? Exercise has long-term benefits for health and function, flow-on benefits for your children, and immediate effects on mood and vitality. Being clear in your mind about what you want to gain from exercising, can help prompt you into action.

Extrinsic motivators can also help you get started with exercise.

2. Arrange to meet a friend to exercise together. You’ll be more likely to follow through, as you won’t want to let your friend down. Also, research suggests people exercise for longer when they exercise with family members and friends compared with those who exercise alone

3. reward yourself with a new piece of clothing or shoes you’ll enjoy exercising in. Be sure to make the reward conditional on doing a certain amount of exercise, so you have to earn it

4. get an activity tracker. Fitness trackers have a host of features designed to boost motivation, such as prompts, self-monitoring and goal-setting. There is a plethora of research suggesting activity trackers increase physical activity

5. exercise at the same time each day, so it becomes a habit. Research suggests exercising in the morning leads to faster habit formation compared with evening exercise

6. do an activity you enjoy. Starting a new exercise habit is hard enough. Increase your chances of sticking with it by doing an activity you find enjoyable. Also, you may exercise at a higher intensity without even realising it, if you are doing a form of exercise you enjoy. If you hate running, don’t do it. Go for a long walk in nature

7. start small. Leave yourself wanting more, rather than overdoing it. You’re also less likely to feel sore or injure yourself

8. listening to up-beat music improves mood during exercise, and reduces perceived exertion, leading to increased work output. These benefits are particularly effective for rhythmic, repetitive forms of exercise, such as walking and running

9. take your dog for a walk. Dog-walkers walk more often and for longer than non-dog walkers, and they report feeling safer and more socially connected in their neighbourhood

10. make a financial commitment. Behavioural economic theory recognises humans are motivated by loss aversion. Some commercial websites have harnessed this for health by getting people to make a “commitment contract” in which they pay a financial deposit that is forfeited if the health behaviour commitment is not met. This approach has been shown to improve physical activity, medication adherence and weight loss.

Be patient with yourself, and keep the long game in mind – it takes around three to four months to form an exercise habit. After that, the intrinsic motivators take over to keep your exercise routine going. Who knows, maybe you’ll be the one hooked on exercise and inspiring your friends and family a few months from now.

Carol Maher receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, the Medical Research Future Fund, the National Heart Foundation, the South Australian Department for Innovation and Skills, the South Australian Department for Education, Healthway and Hunter New England Local Health District.

Ben Singh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How do I improve my motivation to exercise when I really hate it? 10 science-backed tips – https://theconversation.com/how-do-i-improve-my-motivation-to-exercise-when-i-really-hate-it-10-science-backed-tips-179761

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lesley Russell, Adjunct Associate Professor, Menzies Centre for Health Policy, University of Sydney

Universal and affordable access to dental care is the perennial health-care issue everyone cares about but no major political party seems willing to address in any substantive way.

Thank goodness the Greens consistently remind us of the pressing need to make dental care an essential part of health care. This election, they’ve been quick to push out their policy to integrate dental care into Medicare.

They propose everyone with access to Medicare be eligible for what are described as the “clinically relevant services they require”. This includes general dental, orthodontics (such as braces) and restorative services (such as crowns).

To make sure there are enough dental professionals, the Greens propose university education and training for the dental workforce be fee-free.

Such an expansive scheme is very expensive. This has been costed at A$77.6 billion over the next decade, funded with new taxes on big corporations and billionaires.

The Greens (who might hold some sway in a new parliament but will never be in government with budget responsibilities) have the luxury of proposing a large-scale program with no information about its presumable gradual introduction.

The Greens have also proposed a funding mechanism that is very unlikely to fly, given both the Coalition and Labor view new taxes and tax reforms as political poison.

The Greens’ publicly available policy document is just three pages long and very short on detail. A number of key questions go unacknowledged and unanswered.

Read more:
Voters love the Greens’ message more than ever – but it may not lead to a surge of votes for them

How much will this cost?

The policy has been costed by the independent Parliamentary Budget Office, so there must be more detail available about the program’s rollout and scope.

The policy document does not say if the proposed $77.6 billion investment includes, or is in addition to, current federal spending on dental care through the Medicare-funded dental services for eligible children, public dentistry for some adults, and GP and hospital visits for dental needs.

This figure likely does not include the costs of free university education for dentists, which is part of the Greens’ separate education policy.

This $77.6 billion investment over ten years is substantial. This equates to an average of $7.7 billion a year – about the same (see table 5.8.1) as the annual cost to the federal budget of the subsidy to encourage people to purchase private health insurance.

However, these costs should be balanced against the economic benefits a federal government investment in a universal dental-care program would deliver in terms of reduced health-care costs and increased productivity.

What is covered?

The proposal is said to be costed on the basis that 80% of dental services will be “routine”. But especially in the early years of such a program, there will be a pent-up demand from people who have waited years for care. These people will need more extensive and expensive services.

Formal guidelines about what is “routine” or “essential” and a focus on prevention and early intervention will be critical to ensure targeted care and prevent cost blow-outs.

Read more:
Two million Aussies delay or don’t go to the dentist – here’s how we can fix that

The workforce

Having the right dental workforce in the right places is essential for universal access to dental care.

Simply providing free university places for dental students will not address the current situation, which sees a surfeit of dentists in metropolitan areas and a scarcity in rural, remote and socially disadvantaged areas.

Many dental-care services can be delivered by dental hygienists and technicians and any new scheme should encourage the most appropriate professional to deliver each service.

Read more:
How to brush your teeth properly, according to a dentist

What is missing?

The policy does not specifically address providing oral health and dental care for people with special needs, including aged-care residents or people with a physical or mental disability.

The campaign materials talk about “free dental care” but provide no indication as to how this will be achieved. Under Medicare, neither the fees doctors and allied health professionals charge, nor bulk billing, are mandated. It would be very difficult to impose set fees and a requirement to bulk bill on dental professionals.

Read more:
The shocking state of oral health in our nursing homes, and how family members can help

First steps

For too many years, I and others have been writing about the need to address oral health and dental care.

University of Sydney colleague Professor Heiko Spallek and I recently proposed that in the face of unwillingness of the major political parties to implement a universal dental-care program, there should be a more targeted approach to providing dental services.

For example, this could be a preventive program for children, oral hygiene programs for people in aged care, Medicare coverage of dental care for pregnant and post-partum women and for people with certain chronic medical conditions, such as cancer, diabetes or HIV/AIDs. Alternatively, a more limited approach could see the provision of designated essential services under a means-tested program.

I’ve written before about the need for teams of dental professionals and educators where they’re most needed, such as remote and under-served communities.

Read more:
How to fill the gaps in Australia’s dental health system

It’s important to start the debate

Dental health has a huge impact on people’s quality of life. This includes health outcomes, self-esteem and employability.

But for too many Australians, the burgeoning out-of-pocket costs of private dental care and long waiting lists for publicly-funded care are a major barrier.

It is time for politicians and the medical profession to see oral health and dental care as an essential health-care issue worthy of substantial investment.

The Greens’ proposal – despite its inadequacies – has a vision that should serve as a starting point for public debate.

Lesley Russell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The Greens want Medicare to cover a trip to the dentist. It’s a grand vision but short on details – https://theconversation.com/the-greens-want-medicare-to-cover-a-trip-to-the-dentist-its-a-grand-vision-but-short-on-details-181239

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Fiona Backhouse, PhD Student in Behavioural Ecology, Western Sydney University

Am I not pretty enough? This article is part of The Conversation’s series introducing you to Australia’s unloved animals that need our help.

Mention the superb lyrebird, and you’ll probably hear comments on their uncanny mimicry of human sounds, their presence on the 10 cent coin, and their stunning tail. Far less known – but equally, if not more, impressive – is the Albert’s lyrebird.

Like the superb lyrebird, the Albert’s lyrebird performs spectacular dance displays and, as our latest research shows, produces astounding mimicry of sounds from its environment. The Albert’s lyrebird is part of an ancient lineage of song birds, and even attracted the attention of Charles Darwin himself.

While the superb lyrebird is notoriously shy, the Albert’s lyrebird is more elusive still and is only found in a small region of subtropical rainforest hidden away in the mountainous areas of Bundjalung Country, on the border between New South Wales and Queensland.

Sadly, historical land clearing and recent bushfires have placed this species under threat, and a lack of information may be impeding its conservation. So let us introduce you to this shy performer and convince you that the Albert’s lyrebird is worthy of as much attention as its limelight-stealing sister species.

Impressive displays

The Albert’s lyrebird (Menura alberti) is a large, ground-dwelling bird that forages by scratching up the soft, leaf-littered forest floor.

Both sexes have dark auburn-red feathers, and the male sports a showy tail made of silvery thread-like feathers that create a waterfall effect over his head during his courtship display. The display also reveals a bright, flame-like patch of orange feathers underneath his tail.

Like superb lyrebirds, male Albert’s lyrebirds hit the stage in midwinter. Hidden within the thick vegetation of the rainforest, they use clusters of vines or sticks as a platform to perform. The male Albert’s lyrebird then sings a remarkable song.

Impressively, they can accurately mimic up to 11 different species, including satin bowerbirds, Australian king-parrots, crimson rosellas and kookaburras, among others.

They also mimic multiple vocalisations from each species, as well as non-vocal sounds such as wingbeats. In fact, one lyrebird can mimic up to 37 different sounds!

Read more:
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Drama and ‘whistle songs’

In our latest research, we show each male arranges his mimicry into a particular order that’s repeated again and again throughout a performance. What’s more, all males within a location perform their mimicry in a similar order, suggesting this sequence is learnt from neighbouring males.

For example, lyrebirds at Binna Burra, in Lamington National Park, often mimic a kookaburra, followed by an eastern yellow robin, wingbeats, and the “tsit” of a green catbird. You can hear this shared sequence in the recordings below.

We’ve also discovered that males order their mimicry to place contrasting calls together within the sequence. This likely increases “drama”, and highlights the virtuosity of the male through the great diversity of sounds he can produce.

Lyrebirds not only mimic, but also sing their own songs, including their prominent whistle song – a striking melody we could hum or whistle along to, and during the dawn chorus the whistle songs of every lyrebird echo around the escarpments of their range.

These songs also vary from region to region, so each population has its unique set of whistle songs shared among the local males, which you can hear in the recordings below.

It’s not just the males that sing – female lyrebirds are shamefully underrated. Like female superb lyrebirds, female Albert’s lyrebirds sing both their own song and mimic the sounds of other birds.

They seem to often mimic alarm calls of eastern whipbirds, as well as grey goshawks, a fierce predator of lyrebirds.

While the Albert’s lyrebird may be most noticeable for its extravagant plumes and vocal virtuosity, they also likely play an important role in the local ecosystem.

Superb lyrebirds are “ecosystem engineers”, who turn over soil when foraging with their powerful claws, which can reduce bushfire fuel. Albert’s lyrebirds also rake the forest floor while foraging and are likely to have similar impacts.

A threatened species

Since European colonisation, Albert’s lyrebirds have endured a history of land clearing for agriculture, and were even once shot to put in pies!

As a result, they are listed nationally as “near threatened”, though this listing worsens to “vulnerable” in NSW, where the smallest population has an estimated 10 individuals.

The devastating 2019-2020 bushfires that engulfed Australia’s east coast burnt an estimated 32% of Albert’s lyrebirds habitat. As a result, Albert’s lyrebirds have now been listed as one of 13 priority bird species requiring urgent management after the fires.

Now, more than ever, it’s important to fully understand the behaviour and ecology of this species to ensure their survival.

What can we do?

The Albert’s lyrebird has escaped much public attention and has likely seen severe habitat loss after the fires. However, there is good news.

Citizen science initiatives in local council areas are helping to more accurately map Albert’s lyrebird occurrences, and improve habitat quality and connectivity by removing weeds.

Read more:
Click through the tragic stories of 119 species still struggling after Black Summer in this interactive (and how to help)

Albert’s lyrebirds are not only important as an individual species, but also provide an entire soundscape through their diverse mimetic repertoires that they can perform for over an hour at a time.

They provide a soundtrack to our dwindling ancient rainforests, and are an important part of Australia’s natural and cultural history. Let’s ensure the next generation has the opportunity to meet this shy sister of the superb lyrebird.

Fiona Backhouse received funding from BirdLife Northern NSW, and was assisted by funding from the National Science Foundation (USA).

Anastasia Dalziell receives funding support from the University of Wollongong and the National Science Foundation (USA) for research on the acoustic ecology and cultural evolution of lyrebirds (see: lyrebirdlab.org).

Justin Welbergen receives funding support from Western Sydney University and the National Science Foundation (USA) for research on the acoustic ecology and cultural evolution of lyrebirds (see: lyrebirdlab.org).

Robert Magrath receives funding from the Australian National University and the Australian Research Council for work on the acoustic ecology and communication of birds.

– ref. Listen to the Albert’s lyrebird: the best performer you’ve never heard of – https://theconversation.com/listen-to-the-alberts-lyrebird-the-best-performer-youve-never-heard-of-177627

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gregory Moore, Doctor of Botany, The University of Melbourne

Fads and fashion have always influenced the plants we keep. And so it is with variegated plants, which have become very popular with indoor plant enthusiasts these days.

Variegated plants possess multiple colours – typically on their leaves, but in some cases on stems, flowers and fruit. Their patterns include stripes, dots, edges and patches. They’re usually green with either white or yellow, but can also feature red, pink, silver and other colours.

Variegated plants can divide opinion. I recall a great aunt telling me many years ago of her great fondness for the variegated Aspidistra elatior growing her garden. But I’ve also heard gardeners and garden designers dismiss variegated foliage because it didn’t fit with their design or colour themes.

Now, it seems indoor variegated plants are considered a “must-have” home decor accessory. But before you rush out and buy one, make sure you know how to keep it happy.

Understanding variegated plants

Most plant species are entirely green but occasionally a variegated individual arises. Some catch the eye of a dedicated plant collector or nursery worker and become a popular variety.

Plant variegation can occur for several reasons.

In some plants, such as the flowers of tulips, it’s due to a viral infection. The resulting streaks of different colours may be cursed or valued depending on the aesthetic effect.

Others plants, such as those in the genus coleus, are naturally patterned. Groups of cells produce different colour combinations, causing leaves to grow with attractive markings.

Plant variegations can also arise from genetic mutation.

Read more:
Curious Kids: Why are leaves green?

When growing variegated plants, it’s important to understand how the various colours affect the way it functions.

The green part of plants contains chlorophyll, a pigment essential for photosynthesis. (Photosynthesis, of course, is the process by which the leaves convert sunlight into oxygen and carbohydrate that provides energy for plants to grow.)

In variegated plants, white parts of leaves do not contain chlorophyll and so do not photosynthesise.

Yellow parts of leaves can help send energy to the chlorophyll, but can’t perform photosynthesis on their own. The same goes for some red, orange and pink patches of tissue.

But all cells in the leaf – green or not – use the plant’s energy. That means variegated plants are less efficient energy producers than their all-green counterparts, which causes them to grow more slowly.

Some plants have mutated into albinos containing no chlorophyll. These normally die within a few days or weeks of germination.

Caring for your plant indoors

It’s no coincidence many popular indoor plants – such as coleus, philodendrons, monsteras, dracaenas and calatheas – are variegated. Because they’re usually far less vigorous than all-green versions of the species, they won’t be pushing against the ceiling within weeks.

The decorative colour and pattern of a variegated indoor plant is an added bonus.

Variegated plants can take longer than others to reach a size considered appropriate for sale at a nursery, so may be comparatively more expensive. But there are ways to protect your variegated investment.

First, watch out for “reversion”. This can occur when a variegated plant sends up an all-green shoot. The shoot will grow fast compared to the variegated parts and can eventually take over, causing the whole plant to revert to green.

To avoid this, vigilantly remove any green shoots before they get big.

You don’t want variegated plants quickly outgrowing their space, but remember they’re low on chlorophyll and so need good light.

And like any indoor plant, ensure its leaves are kept free of fine dust and you don’t give it too much, or too little, water.

Read more:
Why apartment dwellers need indoor plants

Variegated plants in the garden

The popularity of indoor variegated plants will almost certainly lead to greater use outdoors.

Their slow-growing nature means outdoor variegated plants are usually much less likely to be “weedy” and spread where they’re not wanted.

This can be an advantage if you’ve avoided planting a species because it will take over the garden. The variegated versions of pittosporum, ficus and nerium oleander, for example, are far less intent on global domination than their all-green counterparts.

When planting a variegated plant outdoors, watch that it doesn’t become shaded by other quicker-growing plants. Many variegated plants already struggle to photosynthesise sufficiently. A bit of extra shade can damage or even kill them.

So ensure they get enough light – and every so often give them a hand by trimming back nearby plants.

Growing with flying colours

Variegated plants are having their moment in the sun. But their interesting biology is always in fashion!

These plants can brighten up your indoor space and provide attractive colour and pattern in the garden.

By learning about how variegated plants function and considering their special requirements, you can enjoy them for years to come.

Read more:
Trees get sunburnt too – but there are easy ways to protect them, from tree ‘sunscreen’ to hydration

Gregory Moore does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Multi-coloured plants are suddenly a home decor ‘must-have’. Here’s how to keep them alive – https://theconversation.com/multi-coloured-plants-are-suddenly-a-home-decor-must-have-heres-how-to-keep-them-alive-181163

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bradley Hastings, Research Fellow, UNSW Sydney

My grandmother, Claire Hastings, was born in the 1920s on a farm in Armidale, northern New South Wales. That was a relatively common thing, with just 43% of the population living in cities, compared with more than 70% now.

She lived in a small wooden hut, with a chicken coop out the front and fields out the back. When she and her siblings came home from school, they helped plough the fields with a horse-drawn plough until sundown.

Little did she know this life would soon disappear. The “second industrial revolution” (of mass production and standardisation) was creating machines to replace human and horse power. A plough pulled by a tractor could do in hours what took Grandma and her siblings a week.

By the time she left school, age 17, she wasn’t needed on the farm. So she instead went to college, became a teacher, got married and raised a family. Now 93, she lives in a comfy suburban four-bedroom home, enjoys dining at restaurants, and loves going to the theatre and on ocean cruises.

Her story is far from unique. Around the world industrialisation has reduced farm employment enormously. In the United States, for example, 40% of the
labour force worked on farms in 1920; now it is about 2%

The loss of those jobs, and their replacement, is worth remembering as we now confront the “fourth industrial revolution”, with robots and artificial intelligence tipped to take up to 40% of the jobs now done by humans within two decades.

Read more:
Behind those headlines. Why not to rely on claims robots threaten half our jobs

The hit list is long, from drivers and call-centre workers to computer programmers and university lecturers like myself (we face being replaced by AI avatars, delivering animated content online).

But just as disappearing farm jobs didn’t lead to permanent mass unemployment, nor should we fear this next stage of technological development.

Improving quality of life

While industrial farming was not universally embraced as progress, the huge reductions in farming labour over the 20th century were key to a better life for most people (though poverty and glaring economic inequality still exist).

To cite just one measure, when my grandmother was born the average life expectancy in Australia was 60 years. Now it’s more than 80.

The underlying forces driving such advances are twofold.

First, the mechanisation of farming made food cheaper. US data shows the price of a common basket of groceries is now about 80% cheaper than a century ago. Similar trends exist for virtually every other consumable product.

Second, spending less on food meant people could spend more on other things. New industries sprang up – automobiles, holidays, health care, finance, fitness and education and so on. Sectors virtually unknown in the 1920s now employ more than half of the population.

These new industries have both underpinned improvements in our quality of life and, crucially, created new jobs.

As artificial intelligence and robotics develop, services such as banking, insurance and transport will become cheaper. As a consequence, we will have more money to spend on other items – on health and fitness, travel and leisure and possibilities yet to be conceived.

Whatever these new or expanded industries are, jobs will evolve at the same time as quality of life improves for all.

Read more:
Artificial intelligence can deepen social inequality. Here are 5 ways to help prevent this

Two lessons from my grandmother

None of this, of course, will necessarily make you feel better if you have (and love) a job under threat from automation.

Some lessons from my grandma’s life may help.

First, she didn’t take the changes personally. She understood that times were changing, and that she would have to change with them. She embraced the challenge rather than being defeated by it.

Second, she understood she had to develop new skills. At the same time as farm jobs were diminishing, she saw growing demand for more teachers, underpinned by government regulations requiring children to stay in school longer. So too today education is the key for future jobs.

None of us know what the future holds. But for our collective future to replicate the advancements my grandmother has seen over her life, it’s inevitable that artificial intelligence and robots will take over jobs.

I asked grandma if we should be worried. “Life moves on,” she told me.

And so must we.

Bradley Hastings does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Artificial intelligence may take your job. Some lessons from my grandmother – https://theconversation.com/artificial-intelligence-may-take-your-job-some-lessons-from-my-grandmother-181169

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lauren Samuelsson, Honorary Fellow, University of Wollongong

Australians were involved in competitive cookery long before MasterChef.

The earliest of Australia’s cooking competitions were at agricultural shows. In 1910, the Royal Agricultural Society of NSW hosted its first competition for “perishable foods” at the Royal Easter Show.

Along with pastry and pickles, competitors could also be judged on their calf’s foot jelly.

By the 1920s, the cookery category at the Easter Show had been firmly established. It was purely the preserve of women. Men were prohibited from entering and wouldn’t be allowed to enter until after the second world war.

Women living in NSW and the ACT also entered their wares in the Country Women’s Association’s The Land Cookery Competition. Starting in 1949, the competition judged women on their ability to bake classics such as fruit cake, butter cake and lamingtons, offering modest prize money to the winners. It is still running today.

These competitions are grounded in a history of cooking which saw women as “cooks” and men as “chefs”. Women were amateurs working in the home, while men worked in professional kitchens. This phenomenon continues today.

Cookery competitions allowed women to receive recognition for their often-overlooked hard work and skill. Contestants were encouraged to break out of their comfort zones, to be creative, innovate and impress.

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Getting creative with less. Recipe lessons from the Australian Women’s Weekly during wartime

Magazine cookery competitions

With women as their key demographic, it is little wonder that, by the 1960s, women’s magazines such as the Australian Women’s Weekly began hosting large-scale cookery competitions open to readers around the country.

Perhaps the most extravagant of these competitions was the Butter-White Wings Bake-Off, which ran from 1963 to 1970. The competition pitted Australia’s best home bakers against each other in a variety of categories, including cakes, desserts, main courses and “busy lady recipes”.

Entering their written recipes, contestants competed at state level for a chance to win a trip to the national final where they would cook for illustrious judges.

Thousands competed at the state level of these competitions, and one from each state and territory would go on to the final. These were held in either Sydney or Melbourne in front of live audiences, usually in the middle of a department store.

The 1970 final was televised, with the Weekly estimating two million viewers would watch the proceedings.

It was Australia’s first televised cooking competition.

Marketing and celebrities

Just as MasterChef is sponsored by advertisers, the cookery competitions hosted in the Weekly proved to be lucrative marketing opportunities for a variety of sponsors. The prizes, provided by sponsors such as Breville and QANTAS, included cash, fur coats, appliances, cars and overseas holidays.

The choice of judges also offers us a glimpse of the glamour associated with the competitions as well as the continued gendered expectations surrounding cookery. A slew of early “celebrity chefs” were flown in from exotic, international destinations to judge the competition – including the Galloping Gourmet himself, Graham Kerr.

These celebrity chefs judged the main course section; the overtly feminine baking sections were judged primarily by women.

It was in the cake section that contestants really went above and beyond, both in the recipes themselves and in their names. In 1968, prize-winning recipes included “Golden Crown Dessert”, “Marshmallow-Cherry Cake”, “Chocolate Gold Layer Cake” and “Peach Kuchen”.

Peach Kuchen, which won the “Busy Lady” section, was made with a packet of White Wings cake mix, a tin of peaches and some sour cream. The Bake-Off helped to popularise (and sell!) boxed cake mixes: even the “busy woman” could create delicious cakes deserving of accolades.

A dizzying progression

The last Butter-White Wings Bake-Off was held in 1970, but the magazine kept hosting cooking competitions. In 1980, Elizabeth Love was crowned “Best Cook in Australia.”

Her prize-winning menu included oysters in pastry cases, ballotine of duckling with baby vegetables and a red wine jus, mango sorbet and almond petits fours.

In a recent interview, Love reflected that her menu drew on the concepts of nouvelle cuisine, which was popular at the time. It was an ambitious menu for a home cook – however Love declared that she didn’t think it would do very well if she went on MasterChef today.

Her menu demonstrates the dizzying progression of Australian food over the past 40 years.

Cookery competitions like those held in the Weekly gradually disappeared, replaced instead by competitions on television, which have grown in popularity over the last two decades.

Like the magazine cookery competitions of the past, where contestants were inventive and used new and exciting ingredients, television competitions have also proved important for introducing the Australian palate to innovative cooking techniques and exotic ingredients.

Our ongoing fascination with cooking competition shows such as MasterChef reflects the prestige still on offer for those ambitious contestants who enter them, as well as the cultural importance of food.

Leer más:
What MasterChef teaches us about food and the food industry

Lauren Samuelsson received funding from an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship when undertaking this research.

– ref. More than just MasterChef: a brief history of Australian cookery competitions – https://theconversation.com/more-than-just-masterchef-a-brief-history-of-australian-cookery-competitions-169840

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Darius von Guttner Sporzynski, Historian, Australian Catholic University

Most Australians could name this country’s tallest mountain, Mount Kosciuszko. But how many could tell you where it got its name?

Paul Strzelecki (1797-1873) named Mount Kosciuszko after his compatriot in 1840. A friend of the third US president, Thomas Jefferson, Tadeusz Kościuszko (1746-1817) was a graduate of the Royal Military Academy in Warsaw, engineer, freedom fighter and statesman.

A self-didactic geologist, Strzelecki left Poland in the late 1820s and travelled extensively throughout the world.

He explored North and South Americas, studying mineral deposits and soil composition. He also visited Cuba, Tahiti and New Zealand before arriving in Australia.

Strzelecki came to Sydney in April 1839 to visit his friend, an Australian politician James Macarthur. In Australia, Strzelecki continued to follow his passion for mineralogy, discovering gold in News South Wales.

In March 1840, Strzelecki climbed the highest peak of the Australian Alps.

He named it Mount Kosciuszko in honour of the man whom he considered a hero of the resistance against Russian oppression.

Fighting for independence

Kościuszko was born in 1746 in the Commonwealth of Poland-Lithuania and served as an officer during the American War of Independence.

He distinguished himself by devising the key defence strategy which secured the defeat of the British army at Saratoga in 1777. He also designed the fortification at West Point – the site of the United States Military Academy.

Back in Poland-Lithuania, on March 24 1794 in Kraków and faced with the Russian invasion, Kościuszko proclaimed an uprising to defend his homeland.

Assuming the role of the Commander in Chief of all the Polish-Lithuanian armed forces, he swore to defend the territorial integrity of his country, its sovereignty and universal freedom.

Ideas of the Enlightenment

Kościuszko appealed to all sections of the population of Poland-Lithuania to repel the Russian invasion and reverse the humiliating so-called “partitions” of its territory imposed first in 1772 and again in 1793.

His ideas were shaped by the thinkers of the enlightenment, including John Locke and Hugo Kołłątaj.

Kościuszko valued equality and personal liberty. His public acknowledgement of the burden of serfdom brought him a great following among peasants who formed large units in his insurrectionary army.

His ideas were revolutionary for the time. He challenged the prevalent ideas about rigid feudal social structures. His actions extended the meaning of who made up a “nation” to include peasants: placed on equal footing to nobles for the first time.

Leer más:
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A Polish-Lithuanian military

The first test of Kościuszko’s military strength came on April 4 1794, when the army under his command faced numerically superior Russian imperial forces at the Battle of Racławice in Lesser Poland.

Kościuszko’s victory over Catherine the Great’s generals made him a hero. Recruits from all over Poland-Lithuania flocked to Kościuszko’s army. Local populations in Warsaw and Vilnius rose on the news of his success, expelling Russian troops.

On May 7 1794, Kościuszko’s proclamation granted civil liberty to all peasants of Poland-Lithuania, giving them protection of the law and ownership of the land they worked on.

During the same year, Kościuszko’s forces faced combined Russian and Prussian forces in a series of battles. Among staunch supporters of Kościuszko were such military commanders as Władysław Franciszek Jabłonowski (1769–1802), the first known Polish general of African descent.

In the second half of 1794, success abandoned the insurrectionists. During the Battle of Maciejowice on October 10, a wounded Kościuszko was captured by the Russians. He was imprisoned 1,000 kilometres away in Saint Petersburg as Catherine the Great’s trophy prisoner.

The Russian Empress was petitioned for the release of Kościuszko by his American friends. One of them, an African American Jean Lapierre who served with Kościuszko as his aide-de-camp, offered himself in exchange for Kościuszko’s freedom.

His request was denied. Kościuszko was not released until the death of Catherine the Great in November 1796.

A lasting legacy

Kościuszko’s uprising ended with the bloody siege of Warsaw and the massacre of 20,000 of its population by Russian troops. Led by Russia, the third and final “partition” of Poland-Lithuania extinguished its nationhood for the next 123 years.

During this “partition era”, compatriots of Kościuszko were forced into exile. One of these was the explorer and philanthropist Paul Strzelecki. Kościuszko’s legacy of fighting for what is right influenced Strzelecki and many others.

23 years after Kościuszko’s death, Strzelecki named Australia’s highest mount in Kościuszko’s honour. Five years later, he published the Physical Description of New South Wales and Van Diemen’s Land, an extensive account of his investigation of the climate, geology and geography of Australia.

His decision to give the highest mountain in Australia the name of his hero left a lasting link between Australia and East Central Europe.

Darius von Guttner Sporzynski receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Mount Kosciuszko: how Australia’s highest peak came to be named for a freedom fighter against Russian aggression – https://theconversation.com/mount-kosciuszko-how-australias-highest-peak-came-to-be-named-for-a-freedom-fighter-against-russian-aggression-180578

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nathan Kilah, Senior Lecturer in Chemistry, University of Tasmania

The words “chocolate” and “disappointment” don’t often go together.

But you may have experienced some disappointment if you’ve ever unwrapped the bright foil of an Easter egg to discover white, chalky chocolate inside. What is this white substance? Is it mould? Bacteria? Is it bad for you? Can you still eat it?!

The answer is yes, you can! It’s called “bloom” and it’s caused by fats or sugar from the chocolate. To understand why it forms, and how to avoid it forming, we need to consider the chemistry of chocolate.

The right stuff

Easter egg chocolate is made up of a relatively small number of ingredients: cacao beans, sugar, milk solids, flavourings, and emulsifiers to keep it all mixed together.

Fermenting and roasting cacao beans triggers many chemical reactions which develop delicious flavours. Much in the same way peanut butter can be made from peanuts, the roasted cacao beans are ground into a paste known as cocoa liquor.

The liquor is mixed with the other ingredients, and ground together with heating (known as conching) to form liquid chocolate.

Fat crystals

The fluidity of the cocoa liquor comes from the fats released when the beans are ground. These fat molecules are known as triglycerides, and they resemble the letter Y with three long zigzagging arms connected to a central junction. The triglyceride arms can vary, but they tend to be a mixture of saturated and unsaturated fatty acids.

When the melted chocolate cools, these triglyceride fats assemble into highly ordered structures that are crystals at the molecular scale. Depending on how well the temperature is controlled, the fats can take on one of six different crystal structures. These different crystal forms are called polymorphs.

Control your temper

The most desirable crystal form gives chocolate a smooth, glossy appearance, a clean snap and a melt-in-your-mouth texture. Achieving this requires careful temperature control from liquid to solid through a process known as “tempering”.

Poorly controlled cooling of the melted chocolate results in other crystal forms, which tend to have a less pleasing look and mouth feel – often chalky or gritty. These less desirable forms can convert during storage. And as the underlying crystal structure of the fats change, some of the triglycerides separate.

These separated fats collect at the surface as colourless crystals, giving the chocolate a white fat bloom. This is especially noticeable if the chocolate is poorly stored and goes through melting and re-solidification.

The ingredients can also affect fat bloom. Cheap chocolate tends to use less cocoa butter and more milk solids, which introduce more saturated fats. Saturated fats are also common in nuts, and can migrate from the nut to the chocolate surface. So a chocolate-covered hazelnut is more likely to show fat bloom than a nut-free version.

Sugar or fat crystals?

Sugar bloom is less common than fat bloom, although they can look very similar. It occurs when sugar crystals separate from the chocolate, particularly under humid storage conditions.

You can tell the difference with a simple test. Sugar bloom will dissolve in a little water, while fat bloom will repel water and will melt if you touch it for a while. Unfortunately chocolate bloom can’t be reversed unless you completely melt the chocolate and recrystallise it at the correct temperature.

The easiest ways to avoid bloom on your Easter eggs is by choosing a brand with a high cocoa butter content, transporting and storing your eggs in a low temperature and humidity, and making sure you eat them before their best before date – assuming they last that long!

Read more:
Want to buy guilt-free Easter chocolate? Pick from our list of ‘good eggs’ that score best for the environment and child labour

Nathan Kilah does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What’s the white stuff on my Easter chocolate, and can I still eat it? – https://theconversation.com/whats-the-white-stuff-on-my-easter-chocolate-and-can-i-still-eat-it-181274

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Philipp Kastner, Senior Lecturer in International Law, The University of Western Australia

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is unlikely to be resolved on the battlefield. An end to the bloodshed and destruction of Ukraine can be negotiated, but such negotiations need to be mediated carefully.

So far, all attempts have been unsuccessful. As have been calls on Putin to end the war, from Western heads of state to the pope.

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the president of Turkey, is currently acting as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine. Such a situation, where a separate country or politician assumes the role of go-between, has worked to bring some past wars to an end.

But politicians aren’t always the best mediators.

Negotiations can be facilitated more actively, and ideally international experts on peace mediation should be involved as quickly as possible.

Read more:
Putin is staking his political future on victory in Ukraine – and has little incentive to make peace

Peace mediation has become a profession

There have been many developments in the field of peace mediation over the past decades. The United Nations, the African Union and other international organisations have set up mediation teams.

Several specialised non-governmental organisations have also been created, like the Geneva-based Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue and the Helsinki-based Crisis Management Initiative.

Peace mediation is developing into a professional activity. There have even been initiatives to adopt a new international treaty to create a stronger framework and more guidance for peace negotiators.

Mediators are called in when a conflict is too complex for the parties to resolve by themselves, as in family disputes for instance. Trying to end wars is, obviously, very complex and requires certain expertise.

The problem in the Russia-Ukraine context is all these experienced organisations would be dismissed as “pro-Western” by Moscow. The same is true for states like Switzerland and the Nordic states, which have a long tradition as mediators.

Therefore, the current Russia-Ukraine talks are taking the form of classical diplomacy negotiations between states mediated by politicians. Professional peace mediators aren’t involved.

Politicians as mediators?

Peace mediators don’t necessarily have to be perfectly neutral and unbiased. Close relationships with one or both conflict parties may actually help.

Indeed Erdoğan has high stakes in this conflict. This doesn’t automatically disqualify him as a mediator.

Consider the role the United States, historically a strong supporter of Israel, played in brokering the 1993 Oslo Agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Liberation Organization.

Another example is the role Blaise Compaoré, the former president of Burkina Faso, played in the 2007 negotiations leading to a peace agreement between the government of the Ivory Coast and the rebellious “New Forces”, which Compaoré overtly supported.

Being able to influence and, to some extent, compel the conflict parties to negotiate can also help. A prime example is the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement that ended the bloodshed in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Here, the US had some leverage over the parties, which allowed the chief mediator, Richard Holbrooke, to adopt the “Big Bang approach” in which all parties are locked in a room – in this case the Wright-Patterson air force base in Dayton – until they reach an agreement.

But Russia is too powerful for that.

This is also why the Austrian chancellor’s trip to Moscow this week seems rather hopeless and possibly counterproductive at this stage. Chancellor Nehammer seems to think he can negotiate humanitarian corridors and a ceasefire.

But Putin will be able to use the visit to show Russians he isn’t that isolated in Europe (even if Austria is hardly a heavyweight). So while attempts to mediate are always laudable, they need to be planned carefully.

Fundamentally, politicians aren’t necessarily the best mediators, although they often see themselves as such, and Erdoğan is relatively well placed.

Peace mediation experts should be involved

International, professional experts on peace mediation could and should be involved in the Russia-Ukraine talks, whether formally or informally. Most peace agreements have been facilitated by third parties in some way.

For instance, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, a regional organisation, mediated the negotiations between Sudan and South Sudan, with the contribution of other organisations and experts. This led to the adoption of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2005, which ended a longstanding war.

Also, while a ceasefire is desirable, it isn’t absolutely necessary to make progress on substantive issues, such as the status of the Donbas and Crimea. Many negotiations, from Bosnia to Colombia, have been held while the fighting continued. So even if there’s no ceasefire, the parties can still agree on other issues.

And it can be OK to agree to disagree. Not everything needs to be resolved right now in a comprehensive package deal. Some issues can be resolved later. Peace is a process.

Read more:
Ukraine Recap: is peace possible?

To be clear, engaging in negotiations doesn’t imply excusing Russia’s aggression or the perpetration of war crimes. And atrocities against civilians, as revealed by the recently discovered corpses in Bucha, could further decrease the chances for successful talks.

No indictments or arrest warrants against political and military leaders, including Putin, have been issued in the context of Ukraine so far. But with the situation before the International Criminal Court, this could change. While it will be difficult to execute such warrants, they’re likely to affect negotiations.

It’s crucial to explore every option to end this war right now by envisaging a scenario that allows both sides to avoid feeling humiliated. Using professional peace mediators would help. But of course they can’t be imposed on Putin.

Philipp Kastner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How can Russia’s invasion of Ukraine end? Here’s how peace negotiations have worked in past wars – https://theconversation.com/how-can-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-end-heres-how-peace-negotiations-have-worked-in-past-wars-180778

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Morgan Harrington, Research Fellow, Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research, Australian National University

The rate of voter participation in federal elections by people living in remote Indigenous communities has been lower than the national average since First Nations people were granted the right to vote in 1962. In recent years, the rate has been in decline. Rates are lowest in the Northern Territory.

The low rate of participation among First Nations people living in remote communities could affect the lower house election results in the Northern Territory seat of Lingiari. Warren Snowden has stepped down after 20 years holding the seat.

Read more:
How the election could affect the future of a First Nations Voice to Parliament

Determining rates of voter participation

Measuring the number of First Nations people (or any particular demographic group) who vote in federal elections is challenging. Electoral rolls do not include information about cultural identity. Census figures, which could be used as a basis for comparison against voter turnout rates, are imprecise.

Data from the 2005 NT Assembly general election show voting rates were 20% lower in electorates with the highest Indigenous populations.

In his study of the 2019 federal election, Australian National University researcher Will Sanders found

perhaps only half of eligible Aboriginal citizens […] may be utilising their right to vote.

Reports from the Northern Territory’s most recent Assembly election also found record lowturnout across Indigenous communities.

Research shows rates of informal votes are also higher in remote Indigenous communities.

Barriers to First Nations people voting

Decisions made at the federal level over the last three decades appear to have provided significant obstacles to voting in some First Nations communities.

First is the 1996 abolition of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Election Education and Information Service.

Two studies point to this abolition as a potential reason for a decline in voting rates in remote Indigenous communities since the mid-nineties.

Established in 1979, this service existed specifically to increase voter registration rates among First Nations people. This was done by, for example, providing voter education and election materials in Indigenous languages.

The second decision was the 2005 abolition of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Commission.

First Nations people participated in five of the Commission’s elections administered by the same Australian Electoral Commission responsible for federal elections. Although voting was voluntary, analysis shows participation was higher in northern and central Australia than in southern Australia.

The third relevant policy change was the passage of the 2006 Electoral Integrity Bill. This introduced more stringent rules for the identification required to vote, making it more difficult for people in at least one remote community to register to vote.

The Morrison government’s unsuccessful 2021 proposal to introduce even tougher voter identification laws would likely exacerbate this problem.

The fourth policy decision was a 2012 change to the Commonwealth Electoral Act, known as the “Federal Direct Enrolment and Update”.

This enabled the Australian Electoral Commission to register eligible Australians to vote based on information available through several government agencies. These include Centrelink/the Department of Human Services, the Australian Taxation Office, and the National Exchange of Vehicle and Driver Information Service.

But the Electoral Commission has chosen not to use this mechanism for enrolment in parts of Australia where mail is sent to a single community address (“mail exclusion areas”).

This means people living in many remote communities are not automatically added to the electoral roll, unlike most of the rest of Australia.

West Arnhem Regional Council mayor Matthew Ryan and Yalu Aboriginal Corporation chairman Ross Mandi launched an official complaint to the Australian Human Rights Commissioner over this issue in June last year.

They argued failure to apply the Federal Direct Enrolment and Update in remote communities represents a breach of the Racial Discrimination Act.

A survey of residents in one remote community on South Australia’s APY lands found a lack of information contributed to low participation in elections.

Obstacles included:

• a lack of materials available in appropriate languages

• uncertainty about how to cast a formal vote

• problems related to literacy, and

• a lack of appropriate identification necessary to enrol.

Read more:
Why voter ID requirements could exclude the most vulnerable citizens, especially First Nations people

In October last year, the Australian Electoral Commission announced new funding for its Indigenous Electoral Participation program with the aim of increasing enrolment rates; the upcoming election will show if the program is working.

Read more:
Does the pre-election budget address ways to realistically ‘close the gap’ for Indigenous people?

Lingiari

Given that voting is compulsory in Australia, non-participation is a concern in any election. But these issues are likely to be particularly relevant in the 2022 federal election, at least in the seat of Lingiari.

Lingiari covers all of the Northern Territory outside the greater Darwin/Palmerston area. So it is the one House of Representatives division where Indigenous Australians (many of them living in remote communities) have clear electoral power.

Providing more mobile polling booths could help make voting easier for people in remote Indigenous communities. Currently, these booths can be present for as little as two hours during an entire election period.

There is also evidence Indigenous people are more likely to vote in elections for Indigenous candidates, and for candidates who have visited their community.

Warren Snowden has represented the electorate since its creation in 2001, but he is not contesting this election; the seat is up for grabs.

Indigenous people will determine who takes Snowden’s place. But how many of them vote may be limited by their ability to enrol, the availability of information in an appropriate language, and access a polling booth.

Morgan Harrington does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Past policies have created barriers to voting in remote First Nations communities – https://theconversation.com/past-policies-have-created-barriers-to-voting-in-remote-first-nations-communities-181194

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nathan Kilah, Senior Lecturer in Chemistry, University of Tasmania

The words “chocolate” and “disappointment” don’t often go together.

But you may have experienced some disappointment if you’ve ever unwrapped the bright foil of an Easter egg to discover white, chalky chocolate inside. What is this white substance? Is it mould? Bacteria? Is it bad for you? Can you still eat it?!

The answer is yes, you can! It’s called “bloom” and it’s caused by fats or sugar from the chocolate. To understand why it forms, and how to avoid it forming, we need to consider the chemistry of chocolate.

The right stuff

Easter egg chocolate is made up of a relatively small number of ingredients: cacao beans, sugar, milk solids, flavourings, and emulsifiers to keep it all mixed together.

Fermenting and roasting cacao beans triggers many chemical reactions which develop delicious flavours. Much in the same way peanut butter can be made from peanuts, the roasted cacao beans are ground into a paste known as cocoa liquor.

The liquor is mixed with the other ingredients, and ground together with heating (known as conching) to form liquid chocolate.

Fat crystals

The fluidity of the cocoa liquor comes from the fats released when the beans are ground. These fat molecules are known as triglycerides, and they resemble the letter Y with three long zigzagging arms connected to a central junction. The triglyceride arms can vary, but they tend to be a mixture of saturated and unsaturated fatty acids.

When the melted chocolate cools, these triglyceride fats assemble into highly ordered structures that are crystals at the molecular scale. Depending on how well the temperature is controlled, the fats can take on one of six different crystal structures. These different crystal forms are called polymorphs.

Control your temper

The most desirable crystal form gives chocolate a smooth, glossy appearance, a clean snap and a melt-in-your-mouth texture. Achieving this requires careful temperature control from liquid to solid through a process known as “tempering”.

Poorly controlled cooling of the melted chocolate results in other crystal forms, which tend to have a less pleasing look and mouth feel – often chalky or gritty. These less desirable forms can convert during storage. And as the underlying crystal structure of the fats change, some of the triglycerides separate.

These separated fats collect at the surface as colourless crystals, giving the chocolate a white fat bloom. This is especially noticeable if the chocolate is poorly stored and goes through melting and re-solidification.

The ingredients can also affect fat bloom. Cheap chocolate tends to use less cocoa butter and more milk solids, which introduce more saturated fats. Saturated fats are also common in nuts, and can migrate from the nut to the chocolate surface. So a chocolate-covered hazelnut is more likely to show fat bloom than a nut-free version.

Sugar or fat crystals?

Sugar bloom is less common than fat bloom, although they can look very similar. It occurs when sugar crystals separate from the chocolate, particularly under humid storage conditions.

You can tell the difference with a simple test. Sugar bloom will dissolve in a little water, while fat bloom will repel water and will melt if you touch it for a while. Unfortunately chocolate bloom can’t be reversed unless you completely melt the chocolate and recrystallise it at the correct temperature.

The easiest ways to avoid bloom on your Easter eggs is by choosing a brand with a high cocoa butter content, transporting and storing your eggs in a low temperature and humidity, and making sure you eat them before their best before date – assuming they last that long!

Read more:
Want to buy guilt-free Easter chocolate? Pick from our list of ‘good eggs’ that score best for the environment and child labour

Nathan Kilah does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What’s this white stuff on my Easter chocolate, and can I still eat it? – https://theconversation.com/whats-this-white-stuff-on-my-easter-chocolate-and-can-i-still-eat-it-181274

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gorana Grgić, Senior Lecturer, Department of Government and International Relations and US Studies Centre, University of Sydney

Any sort of analysis that tries to draw lessons from an evolving event such as an ongoing major war is a potentially futile task. On the one hand, there is a fog of war that prevents us from understanding the tactical developments. On the other hand, the time lag is still much too short to allow us to fully comprehend the consequences and impact of what has aptly been described as Europe’s September 11.

Yet, there is no doubt the Russian invasion of Ukraine will have an irrevocable effect on the state of international affairs for years to come. It has accelerated some of the negative trends in world politics – the great power rivalry between the West and revisionist powers such as Russia and China, and economic nationalism.

Equally, it has brought about sweeping foreign policy changes in some of the most powerful European countries, notably Germany.

However, on the other side of the Atlantic, rather than bringing about a major shift in foreign policy, Russia’s aggression has highlighted tensions in US foreign policy.

The struggle between democracies and autocracies

From early in his presidency, US President Joe Biden has promoted policies that made the renewal of democracy in the United States and around the world the central tenet of his tenure. His most recent major speech, delivered in Warsaw, pointed to the continuity of the battle for democracy that follows the end of the Cold War and continues today.

The lofty rhetoric on the fight to defend democracy, while laudable and urgent, has inevitably drawn criticism. Those who believe democracy promotion has to begin at home rightly argue the United States has to address its myriad issues of democratic malaise before it is able to point fingers abroad.

Others believe the “democratic clubbiness” might be counterproductive in an increasingly complex world.

This is not a new tension in modern US history. After all, the track record of US foreign policy during the Cold War was one in which democratic ideals failed to meet reality, both at home and abroad.

Yet, the early decades of the 21st century present an even greater challenge on this front. For one, some of the most recent US foreign policy record in democracy promotion failed to effect durable and positive changes. For example, the US intervention in Afghanistan is widely seen as a failure.

Even more pressingly, the Trump administration’s democratic rollback at home has had an indelible impact. The reputation of the US suffered a huge blow around the world. The Biden administration must continue to wrestle with restoring good faith towards the country.

Boots on ground are out, economic warfare is in

Principles and values in foreign policy are one thing, but the action a country is prepared to take to defend them is quite another. So far, it has been abundantly clear the Biden administration leans more towards pragmatism than idealism. This has been most notable in the imposition of no-fly zones in Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and even some of the foremost US allies in Eastern Europe, have been imploring Biden to enforce a no-fly zone in Ukraine. However, both the executive and legislative branches have made it clear they would only do so if one of the NATO member states was attacked.

The reluctance to escalate the military intervention reflects the anxiety that such action might increase the risk of armed exchanges with Russia, or even lead to a world war. It is also about acknowledging the American public is wary of war.

At the same time, while Biden is trying to minimise the potential of physical warfare, it has gone hard on economic warfare. Since the Cold War, several US administrations have used economic sanctions to try to change behaviour and impose costs on the target regimes.

However, the scope and size of sanctions imposed on Russia is remarkable given its position as an exporter of hydrocarbons on which some of America’s closest allies are hugely reliant.

This is part of the changing way economics is used in foreign relations.

Biden came into the office signalling that in many ways, the protectionist turn that began under his predecessor would continue. This was predicated on the idea of economic policy for the middle class and weaning off the dependence on critical goods from countries that are in strategic competition with the US.

The issues arise from the messy middle period of building the economic resilience as supply chains are redirected.

Balancing multi-regional commitments

Russia’s invasion happened as the Biden administration unveiled its long-awaited Indo-Pacific strategy. This aims to manage the most important strategic relationship of the 21st century – that between the United States and China. After all, the second-order effects of the war in Ukraine have a lot of bearing on China’s relations with Russia and the lessons it can draw from the response of the West.

Even as the US, along with the EU, continues to play the key coordinating role in imposing sanctions on Russia and providing aid and relief to Ukraine, the Biden administration has made a point of signalling America’s long-term strategic interests are not primarily in Europe.

This is why the US has been supportive of European defence integration, along with reassuring US allies in the Indo-Pacific that it has not lost its long-term strategic vision.

Much like during the Cold War, where adversarial relations and great power politics marked the nature of the international system, the United States will have to find a way to balance its international commitments with domestic economic security and democratic renewal.

Unlike during the Cold War, this task will be much harder given the complexity of the actors and the challenges it needs to address.

Gorana Grgić does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How the Ukraine war has exposed faultlines in the way the US conducts itself on the world stage – https://theconversation.com/how-the-ukraine-war-has-exposed-faultlines-in-the-way-the-us-conducts-itself-on-the-world-stage-180136

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ken Aldren S. Usman, PhD Candidate, Deakin University

How is fabric made? – Saskia, age 5, Sydney

Hi Saskia, that’s a great question!

From clothes to curtains, towels and sheets, fabrics are everywhere in our daily lives. You might also hear people call them “textiles”.

People have been making fabric, or textiles, for a very long time. In fact, they’ve been doing it for almost 35,000 years!

Let’s first think about what a fabric is. The dictionary says fabric is a cloth made by knitting or weaving together fibres.

What is a fibre?

A fibre is like a strand of hair. It’s very long and thin.

Fibres can come from nature. Some common natural fibres are cotton, silk and wool.

Humans have also found ways to make fibres ourselves in the past 150 years. We can use technology to turn oil into fibres. We can even make special fibres to make your raincoat waterproof, or make a soldier’s vest bullet-proof.

But how can these thin, hair-like fibres be made into something we can wear?

From fibre to yarn

First, we need to put the fibres together to make long strings of yarn. This can be tricky because many fibres are quite short, especially natural ones.

A cotton fibre is usually only around 3cm long. That’s shorter than a paper clip. Wool is usually cut from a sheep when it is 7.5cm long – about the length of a crayon.

We twist these shorter fibres together to make a longer yarn. The twisting makes the fibres rub together and grip to each other. This is called yarn spinning.

Yarn spinning

The first step of yarn spinning involves taking bundle of fibres, lining them up, them combing them like you comb your hair … or how you might comb a long beard! In fact, when we’ve combed them into a sheet, we call it a “beard”.

Next, the sheet is stretched into a long tube. As it stretches, it becomes thinner and thinner. Then we twist it to form a yarn. This delicate sheet of fibres may have been metres wide to begin with, but we twist it into a thin thread.

There are all types of yarn threads. They can be thin, thick, hard, soft, stretchy, or even ones you can’t cut! It all depends on the starting fibre and the machine settings.

Turning yarn into fabric

Once we have our yarn, we’re ready to make fabric. There are many ways do this, such as weaving, knitting or felting.

Weaving crosses the yarns over and under in a chessboard pattern. Knitting makes loops that pass through each other.

Felting is when we get wool fibres wet and soapy. We rub the fibres together until they are all tangled up. Then we press the fibres into a flat sheet called felt.

Weaving, knitting and felting can be very slow if you do them by hand! These days we often use machines to speed things up.

How fabric is made

So we start with the fibre. Then we spin it into long strings of yarn. Next we weave, knit or felt the yarn into fabric. And that, Saskia, is how we make fabric.

Hello, curious kids! Have you got a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to curiouskids@theconversation.edu.au

Ken Aldren S. Usman receives funding from Deakin University’s Post-graduate Research (DUPR) Scholarship Grant.

Dylan Hegh receives funding from Australian National Fabrication Facility, IMCRC and Sustainability Victoria

– ref. Curious Kids: how is fabric made? – https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-how-is-fabric-made-178783

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Williams, Associate Professor, Griffith University, Griffith University

Over the next six weeks, Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Labor leader Anthony Albanese will dash around the country, trying to secure as many precious votes as they can.

We know from previous elections that different parts of the country can react very differently come election day.

What are the key seats and issues affecting Australians? Here, six Australian politics experts tell us what to expect in Queensland, Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia, Tasmania and New South Wales.

QUEENSLAND

Paul Williams, associate professor in politics and journalism, Griffith University

The usual electoral rule is only seats held by a margin of fewer than five percentage points are in play at this point of an electoral cycle.

But these are unusual circumstances. After nine years’ incumbency, the Coalition looks tired and accident-prone. On the heels of an escalating cost-of-living crisis, all government seats under 10% in Queensland are vulnerable to a Labor assault, especially given 2019 was an artificially high watermark for the Liberal National Party.

À lire aussi :
The polls look grim for the Coalition. Will Queensland buck the trend again?

That means at least ten Queensland seats will be “in play”. These are: Longman (3.3%), Leichhardt (4.2%), Dickson (4.6%), Brisbane (4.9%), Ryan (6.0%), Bonner (7.4%), Herbert (8.4%), Petrie (8.4%), Forde (8.6%) and Flynn (8.7%).

Paradoxically, of these, smaller margin seats like Leichhardt and Dickson could be a bigger ask for Labor (given the high profile of their sitting LNP MPs, Warren Entsch and Peter Dutton) than “hip-pocket nerve” seats like Petrie, Forde and Herbert.

But watch out also for Bowman (10.2%) where the retiring LNP MP Andrew Laming has attracted the wrong sort of publicity and Capricornia (12.4%) where economic insecurities will also loom large.

The above, of course, is predicated on a uniform swing across Australia – something that rarely if ever occurs. Indeed, some opinion polling has found Queensland – always a battleground state – is the slimmest lead for Labor in Australia. If so, Labor seats in danger of falling to an aggressive LNP campaign include Lilley (0.6%), Blair (1.2%), Moreton (1.9%) and Griffith (2.9%). Both the LNP and the Greens have Griffith in their sights.

In the Senate, the race for the last two of six seats will be between the Greens (almost certain to win one spot) and for the other, Clive Palmer of his own United Australia Party, former Queensland premier Campbell Newman for the Liberal Democrats and – the likely winner – Pauline Hanson.

Outgoing Nationals MP George Christensen has just announced he will also run on One Nation’s Senate ticket – in the unwinnable third spot.

What kind of PM do Queenslanders want?

This election will be a referendum on two issues.

The first is which party is more in touch with the growing cost-of-living crisis. Despite recent relief in fuel prices, the soaring costs of fresh food and housing are high on Australians’ list of gripes. While the government can brag about attaining the lowest unemployment in 50 years, this means little to Australians who work too few hours or earn too small a wage.

À lire aussi :
Why ‘freedom’ is not the only thing worth fighting for

The second is the qualities Australians want in their prime minister. In 2019, the freshly-minted Morrison – with baseball cap, rolled up sleeves and beer in hand – struck a note of authenticity. But, three years later, amid accusations (from other Liberals) Morrison is just another tricky politician, the less well-known Anthony Albanese will be worth the risk for many.

What’s changed since 2019?

Most of the changes since the last federal election point to a more challenging environment for the Coalition in Queensland.

First, Albanese is not Bill Shorten. Second, where Shorten, via a complicated franking credits tax, gave the government an enormous target, Labor under Albanese has curled itself into a tight policy ball.

Moreover, coal, which last time wedged Labor between regional blue-collar voters and urban white-collar workers, has hardly been mentioned since COVID-19. The LNP itself will likely be wedged in the regions as the populist right, led by Palmer, Hanson and Newman, strips votes from the LNP in the name of “anti-mandate freedom”, with preferences potentially leaking to Labor.

Many political observers assume Queensland votes as a singular constituency or, at best, as a dual constituency across Brisbane and “the Bush”. But my research has found at least six electorally distinct Queenslands, each with its own peculiarities.

We often say a general election is really a series of mini-elections whose parts are more critical than the whole. In light of the points above, Queensland in 2022 really will be a collection of 30 unique contests.

VICTORIA

Zareh Ghazarian, lecturer in politics, Monash University

In Victoria, the contest in the House of Representatives is set to be focused on a handful of seats.

As the election pendulums prepared by Malcolm Mackerras and Antony Green show, Victoria has just one seat held by less than one percent – Chisholm. This was won by Liberal MP Gladys Liu in 2019 and has a margin of just 0.5%, making it the second most marginal seat in the country.

The Labor Party will also be defending Corangamite held by Libby Coker on a margin of 1%.

Many seats in Victoria were affected by an electoral redistribution after 2019, which changed their boundaries and created an additional electorate due to the state’s growing population. This means the state is electing 39 MPs to the House of Representatives. It is expected the new seat of Hawke, which takes in suburbs from the west of Melbourne, will be a safe Labor one.

The teal challenge

There are also independents advancing a broadly progressive agenda contesting traditionally safe Liberal seats including Kooyong (currently held by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg) and Goldstein (currently held by Liberal MP Tim Wilson). The 2022 election will test the extent to which the agenda promoted by these independents resonates with traditional Liberal voters.

The Greens will expect to hold Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne, while also aiming to win other inner-city electorates such as Higgins, which is currently held by the Liberal Party with a margin of 3.7%.

In the Senate, minor parties such as One Nation have traditionally performed poorly. It would be expected the previous pattern will continue. In 2019, the Liberal Party won three of the six seats up for election, the ALP claimed two seats and the Greens won one seat.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

Rob Manwaring, associate professor in politics and public policy, Flinders University

Historically, South Australia’s has little direct impact on federal elections. Due to shifts in population, the overall number of federal seats in the state has declined to just ten.

Of the Liberal party’s 20 most marginal seats, South Australia has only one in play – Boothby – currently with a nominal lead for the Liberals of 1.4%. Of the twenty most Labor-held marginal seats, none are in South Australia.

Yet, the political issues in South Australia are a microcosm of the wider national dynamics. In Boothby, outgoing Liberal MP Nicolle Flint unexpectedly stood down, citing sexism and abuse from the left side of politics. Both the major parties are fielding two new candidates.

Strikingly, Jo Dyer is also running as an independent in the seat. Dyer’s candidacy reflects the growing national trend for female candidates to challenge in marginal Liberal or anti-Labor seats. Dyer is the outgoing Adelaide Writers’ Week director and high-profile advocate for the deceased woman who accused Christian Porter of rape – the former attorney-general has strenuously denied the allegations.

If the ALP does as well as polls predict, then Boothby will fall to Labor for the first time since 1949. If a large anti-Coalition vote comes in the seat of Sturt (held by the Liberals on 6.9%) would also fall.

Xenophon attempts a comeback

South Australia’s Senate vote might prove to be a more bitter contest. The surprising electoral reappearance of Nick Xenophon (who retired in 2017) has provoked a rivalry with his former running mate, independent senator Rex Patrick.

Last month, Patrick used parliamentary privilege to flag concerns about Xenophon’s work for Chinese telco Huawei (Xenophon says he has not worked for the company for more than 18 months). This political dispute intersects with the Morrison government’s campaigning on national security and the all-important defence sector in South Australia.

State election momentum

The most significant electoral dynamic to strengthen the federal ALP campaign will be the unexpectedly thumping win by Peter Malinauskas at the state election in March.

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Liberals’ brutal loss in South Australia reflects the fragmented politics of the centre-right

The ALP will take heart from state Labor’s focus on health policy – a key issue within the state. Interestingly, Morrison’s appearance on the campaign trail had little positive impact for the state Liberals.

What might help the Liberals’ campaign in the state, is that unlike the rest of the nation, there has never been a significant presence of the Nationals.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

John Phillimore, professor and executive director, John Curtin Institute of Public Policy, Curtin University

For more than 30 years, Western Australia has been a Liberal safe haven at federal level. But after Labor and Premier Mark McGowan’s astounding victory in 2021, could 2022 be different?

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The Liberals currently hold 11 of WA’s 16 seats but a redistribution means WA lost a seat, so notionally the numbers are now ten Liberal and five Labor. In 2019, Labor thought it had a strong chance in four Liberal seats but instead suffered a swing against it. Expectations are more tempered this time around, but Labor is quietly optimistic it can win at least two extra seats, with one or two surprises possibly in store.

The most marginal seat is Cowan, held by Labor’s Anne Aly on a 0.9% margin. She is up against the Liberal MP for the now-abolished adjacent seat of Stirling, Vince Connolly.

Aly has a high profile and polls suggest the current swing is to Labor, so she is likely to win. If the Liberals win Cowan, Labor’s chances in WA and nationally would nosedive.

Swan (3.2%) and Pearce (5.2%) are the two Labor “must wins” in WA if they want to form government. Longstanding Liberal sitting members Steve Irons and Christian Porter are retiring and the latter’s seat of Pearce has had a major redistribution, which should help Labor’s candidate Tracey Roberts, who is the local mayor.

Hasluck is held by Minister for Indigenous Australians Ken Wyatt on a 5.9% margin. Labor had high hopes last time but Wyatt instead secured a 3.3% swing in his favour. This seat will be a big test of whether WA has decisively moved into the Labor camp. If it has, then Tangney, held by 9.5% by the Liberals, might even come into play. This would be a big blow to the Prime Minister, as it is held by his close colleague, Ben Morton. Published polling shows the seat is close.

Finally, the blue-blood seat of Curtin – Julie Bishop’s former seat now held by Celia Hammond (on 13.9%) – is targeted by high-profile independent Kate Chaney, from the well-known political and business family.

Recent polling shows the seat is neck and neck. Even if the Liberals hold on, the contest is likely to draw attention and resources from campaigns in more marginal seats.

Neither federal leader has been able to visit WA until recently. Morrison is more of a known quantity in WA compared to Albanese, which may help him at the ballot box. Newspoll indicates both leaders have a net satisfaction rating in WA of minus 5%, compared to nationally, where Morrison polls much worse than Albanese.

The McGowan factor

Labor has not won 50% of the two-party preferred (2PP) vote in WA at a federal election since 1987, when local hero Bob Hawke was prime minister. In 2019, Labor won just 44.45% of the 2PP vote.

The big change in WA since 2019 has of course been COVID-19 and the stunning result of the March 2021 state election. Labor won 60% of the primary vote and 70% 2PP. The Liberals were reduced to a humiliating two seats in the 59-seat Legislative Assembly, cutting resources and morale for the upcoming federal contest.

The big question now is whether McGowan’s political dominance at the state level will eat into WA’s traditional support for the Liberals at the federal level.

Quarterly polls since the state election have shown Labor’s lead holding steady. If this continues, that would represent a 2PP swing of 8.5%, putting three if not four Liberal seats in jeopardy.

TASMANIA

Michael Lester, casual academic, University of Tasmania

Tasmania has just five House of Representative seats but two of them are very marginal and a third is held by an independent. So the state may still have a big impact on the outcome of the election if there is a tight finish, particularly if there is a hung parliament.

The five Tasmanian electorates align with the electoral boundaries for the state House of Assembly where there are clear geographical, cultural and political divides. The two southern seats are considered safe and unlikely to change hands. Franklin is held by Labor’s Julie Collins with a 12.2% margin. In Hobart-centred Clark, independent Andrew Wilkie has held the seat since 2010 and now has a 22.1% margin. If there is a hung parliament, Wilkie may play a key role in post-election negotiations to form government.

Labor’s Brian Mitchell has held Lyons since 2016 and in 2019 won with a comfortable 5.2% but was helped considerably when the Liberal candidate resigned during the campaign over inappropriate social media posts. This time, he is up against Liberal candidate Susie Bower, who contested Lyons at last year’s Tasmanian state election.

Bass and Braddon

Both major parties are focusing most of their campaign effort in the northern seats of Bass and Braddon, both of which have already had multiple visits by the party leaders.

Bass and Braddon have both been won by the same party at each of the last eight elections and both are currently held by the Liberals. Bridget Archer in Bass is seeking to become the first incumbent to retain the seat in two decades. She holds it on just 0.4% and is up against the previous incumbent, Labor’s Ross Hart.

Braddon’s current Liberal member Gavin Pearce holds the seat on a 3.1% margin and is opposed by Labor’s Chris Lynch. A March uComms poll conducted for the The Australia Institute found only one percentage point separated the two on a first preference basis. The preferences of the Greens, Jacqui Lambie Network and independent Craig Garland are expected to decide the seat.

The Senate race

In the Senate, Labor’s Anne Urquhart and Helen Polley and the Liberal Party’s Jonathon Duniam and Wendy Askew are expected to be re-elected, along with the Greens’ Peter Whish-Wilson.

The big interest is whether long-term Liberal senator Eric Abetz can overcome being dumped to the third position on the party’s senate ticket to win the last seat.

Abetz is running a below-the-line campaign and has billboards across the state with no Liberal branding to try to maximise his chances. Tasmanians are more likely than voters in other states to vote below the line due to their familiarity with proportional voting for the state’s House of Assembly.

When former Labor senator Lisa Singh was demoted to last on her party’s ticket she successfully ran a below-the-line campaign which saw her re-election in 2016. Abetz will have strong competition from the Labor’s third candidate Kate Rainbird as well as from the Jacqui Lambie Network’s Tammy Tyrell.

NEW SOUTH WALES

Mark Rolfe, honorary lecturer, School of Social Sciences, University of New South Wales

In New South Wales, Morrison will sandbag the three marginal Coalition seats (Reid and Lindsay in Sydney and Robertson on the central coast) and push for the ten Labor seats that have margins of less than 6%. He must gain in his home state to offset losses expected in Queensland, Western Australia and Victoria.

A problem with this strategy will be Labor reminding voters of Morrison’s failures in seats which suffered recent natural disasters, while promising more emergency services and infrastructure under an Albanese government.

These include Macquarie (0.2%), covering the Blue Mountains and Hawkesbury, Eden-Monaro (0.8%) and Gilmore (2.6%) on the south coast and Richmond (4.1%) on the north coast, which Morrison initially left out of flood relief.

Infighting and court challenges

Morrison added further difficulties by wasting a year in a toxic standoff with his state branch over preselections for 12 candidates. This was only resolved last Friday evening.

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Morrison thereby robbed new candidates of valuable campaigning time, especially against independent Zali Steggall, who is defending Warringah (7.2%). Likewise, independent Allegra Spender is alarming current Liberal Dave Sharma in Wentworth (9.8%) and Kylea Tink is scaring his colleague Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney (9.3%).

Factional fights in Reid and Eden-Monaro will also hamper campaigning support.

Commutes and cost-of-living

Further complicating Morrison’s strategy is the disastrous rental and housing affordability crisis. This not only has an impact on disaster recovery, it afflicts all regions and it exacerbates anxieties over stagnating wages and living costs.

Both Morrison and Albanese have been campaigning in Dobell (Labor held on 1.5%) and Robertson (Liberal held on 4.2%). On the central coast between Sydney and Newcastle, these seats contain “dormitory suburbs” where many people commute out of the area for work. They have high numbers of families with children and of people over 65.

Therefore, policies on aged care and Medicare are especially important to them, as are road and rail spends to ease long commutes.

But we should ignore any clichés about “Howard’s battlers” deciding the election in western Sydney seats like Parramatta and Lindsay. They were never rusted-on Labor working class loyalists, as claimed, but swinging voters.

The working class did not vote more for the Coalition than Labor in 2019, there was a bit of a swing in some seats. The ALP still gets the most of the working class votes, even if this has declined in comparison to the past.

Paul Williams is a Research Associate with the TJ Ryan Foundation.

John Phillimore has previously worked as an adviser to state Labor governments in Western Australia, most recently in 2007.

Michael Lester was a political adviser to Labor Premier Jim Bacon from 1998 to 2002

Mark Rolfe, Rob Manwaring et Zareh Ghazarian ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur poste universitaire.

– ref. State of the states: six politics experts take us on a trip around Australia – https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-states-six-politics-experts-take-us-on-a-trip-around-australia-180861

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Laurenceson, Director and Professor, Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI), University of Technology Sydney

This is the first piece in a foreign policy election series looking at how Australia’s relations with the world have changed under the Morrison government.

Official relations between Australia and China are worse now than at the beginning of Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s term. This isn’t opinion – it’s a statement of fact.

These days, it’s easy to forget that just a month after winning the 2019 election, Morrison met with China’s president, Xi Jinping, on the sidelines of a G20 gathering in Japan.

In November of that year, he also sat down with the Chinese premier, Li Keqiang, while the two were in Thailand for the East Asia Summit.

His foreign minister, Marise Payne, meanwhile, met her Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in August 2019 – and again the following month.

This high-level political dialogue, albeit not in the form of official bilateral visits, came at a time when political relations were already strained after Canberra had taken a strong stand against Beijing’s actions in the South China Sea and banned Chinese technology companies from Australia’s 5G rollout, among other actions.

Two factors made this delicate balance possible from Beijing’s perspective.

First, early in his term, Morrison was deliberate in framing relations with China as a partnership. Despite the disagreements, he said he was “very committed to ensure [these] don’t overtake […] the rest of the relationship”.

Second, Morrison was careful to put some distance between his own government’s position on China and that of the Trump administration in the US.

Standing alongside Morrison following a meeting in the Oval Office in September 2019, Trump announced that “Scott has very strong opinions on China” and then challenged him to express those “right now”.

Morrison’s response? “We have a comprehensive strategic partnership with China. We work well with China […] we have a great relationship with China”. The contrast with Trump, who went on to describe China as “a threat to the world”, was dramatic.

Four days later, China’s foreign ministry released a statement saying it had

noted Australia’s positive statements recently, particularly by Australian PM Scott Morrison who said China was a partner not a threat to Australia.

How relations soon began to sour

But in early 2020, this balance was lost.

The trigger came in April when, freshly returned from a visit to the US, Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton delivered remarks that solidified Beijing’s assessment that Canberra was coordinating with Washington to attack China over the COVID-19 pandemic. In quick succession, Payne and Morrison made other comments that reinforced this perception.

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Then, in late 2020, The Wall Street Journal reported that Australian diplomats far afield in Europe had been “connecting China critics in smaller nations with counterparts elsewhere”, adding these efforts “buttressed similar ones by Washington”.

Beijing’s response was to freeze dialogue with the Morrison government and begin a campaign of economic coercion targeting Australian exports. The latter, in particular, strengthened the case being made against Beijing by China hawks in Canberra and also contributed to a sharp negative turn in Australian public opinion.

The rest of the year was characterised by increasingly harsh rhetoric, particularly from Beijing, and a series of actions and counter-actions. Black and white adversarial positions were adopted in both capitals.

And then hit rock bottom

By 2021, Morrison had more or less stopped describing China as a partner. In February, he declared

China’s outlook and the nature of China’s external engagement … has changed since our comprehensive strategic partnership was formed.

Along with Dutton (now defence minister), the prime minister began to overwhelmingly cast China as a threat.

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Further, with an eye to the polls, the Coalition government sought to turn the “China threat” into an election wedge from late 2021.

Morrison accused the opposition leader, Anthony Albanese, of having “backed in the Chinese government” in November. And talk of Labor’s “appeasement” of China then coloured political rhetoric over January and February this year.

How could the election change things?

Yet, as our new qualitative survey at the Australia-China Relations Institute shows, there is no material difference between the major parties’ China policies. Instead, the distinctions between the Coalition and Labor are confined to how such policies might be best carried out.

The opposition has indicated it would place greater emphasis on diplomatic tone and conduct, ensuring, for example, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade plays a bigger role.

Asked what Labor’s “plan on China” is, Shadow Foreign Minister Penny Wong said in February it would prioritise improving Australia’s military and diplomatic capabilities, as well as its economic resilience. Labor has also refrained from depicting the world in stark ideological terms.

Morrison previously rejected viewing the rise of China as “some great ideological struggle between two world-views”, saying this could lead to a “very dangerous end”.

However, he began to embrace this binary in June 2021. This crescendoed with a warning last month that a new “arc of autocracy” was emerging to “challenge and reset the world order in their own image.”

China’s behaviour broadly is now very different to what it was a decade ago, meaning whichever party takes office following the May election will face numerous challenges in trying to manage the relationship and ensure it does not worsen.

Recent developments such as the growing closeness between China and Russia and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine bring other troubling dimensions.

But the Morrison government’s 2019 formula, and the results this delivered, suggest what still might remain possible.

Labor’s mooted approach leans in this direction. It is also more closely aligned with the approach taken by other countries in the region, which despite having their own, sometimes acute, challenges with Beijing, are still able to advocate their interests with China’s leaders and benefit from trade that flows freely.

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Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.

– ref. From handshakes to threats: can the election bring a fresh start in our fractured relationship with China? – https://theconversation.com/from-handshakes-to-threats-can-the-election-bring-a-fresh-start-in-our-fractured-relationship-with-china-178415

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Claire Breen, Professor of Law, University of Waikato

The revelation that women’s KiwiSaver retirement savings lag 20% behind men’s represents a double threat: not only are women paid less during their working lives, they will also be poorer when they retire.

This is perhaps to be expected – the gap in retirement savings reflects the gender pay gap overall. Many women who do the same work as men are comparatively underpaid, meaning they have less money to save for their retirement.

COVID-19 worsened the pay and savings gender gap. The government’s direct financial assistance favoured male-dominated sectors like construction, rather than female-dominated, low-wage sectors like hospitality.

On top of this, a COVID baby boom will likely see old trends reinforced, with more women than men taking time out of the paid workforce. In turn, this will see them disadvantaged when they retire, perpetuating the cycle.

Part of the solution, therefore, would be to enable more women to return to paid work by making it more attractive for men to take paid parental leave. Because right now, the number of new fathers choosing to do this is vanishingly small.

Old stereotypes persist

These problems have wider implications for the rights of women to equality and freedom from discrimination under international and domestic law.

New Zealand’s Human Rights Act also prohibits indirect discrimination, meaning laws or policies that have a negative effect on certain groups – even if unintentional – are still discriminatory.

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Yes, New Zealand’s statutory parental leave scheme mitigates some of the immediate financial burden of childbearing and child rearing. It appears, on the face of it, to promote gender equality, since either parent can be the primary carer and thus be entitled to parental leave. Also, one parent can transfer their leave and pay entitlements to the other.

However, the statutory leave payments are capped at NZ$621 per week, which is less than the weekly minimum wage. And while a partner is entitled to up to two weeks of leave, that leave is unpaid.

This rather meagre scheme hasn’t prevented some companies from generating their own, more generous packages, some of which provide paid partner’s leave.

Yet the statutory entitlements are transferred in less than 1% of cases, and only 4% of partners take unpaid leave. It seems the present system serves to reinforce old stereotypes of women as carers and men as earners outside the home.

Stay-at-home dads

One way to change this would be to introduce non-transferable, paid partner leave. This would apply irrespective of whether the primary carer has an entitlement to paid parental leave themselves.

Such a scheme would offer greater incentive for men to look after their young children at home, freeing up more women to go back to work.

There is evidence this works. Sweden introduced paid parental leave in 1974, but the number of fathers taking leave only jumped significantly when non-transferable paid leave was introduced in 1995.

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A number of other countries are already guaranteeing paid parental leave that includes paid paternity leave or leave reserved specifically for fathers of infants. And a similar recommendation was made by New Zealand’s National Advisory Council on the Employment of Women as far back as 2008.

But OECD research suggests paternity leave payments need to be equivalent to half or more of a father’s previous earnings. Given the existing gender pay gap means fathers are already likely to be earning more than mothers, a partner-specific scheme would inevitably favour men.

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Happier families

Offering boosted paternity payments for men as a way to close the gender pay gap may seem paradoxical. But it does highlight the ineffectiveness of current systems offering lower payments that are taken up mainly by women.

Again, Swedish research suggests separate payments to fathers can serve to close the gender pay gap by allowing mothers to return to the paid workforce. Opportunities for promotion and pay rises can then increase retirement savings.

And there are wider benefits to these family-friendly policies, such as improved health for mothers and children, improved educational outcomes for children, and lower levels of stress among fathers.

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Of course, another barrier to men taking parental leave is their fear of the career and social consequences. Those deeper stereotypes of women as homemakers and men as providers will not disappear overnight, as the Swedish experience shows. But the fact a female prime minister’s male partner has embraced the caregiving role is perhaps a start.

Longer term, however, making paid paternity leave a more viable option financially and socially for families will mean doing more to address the gender pay gap and its flow-on effects over a woman’s lifetime.

There’s no single solution to this multi-faceted problem, but encouraging more men back into the home with paid paternity leave would help shift things in the right direction.

Claire Breen ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Fewer than 1% of New Zealand men take paid parental leave – would offering them more to stay at home help? – https://theconversation.com/fewer-than-1-of-new-zealand-men-take-paid-parental-leave-would-offering-them-more-to-stay-at-home-help-180777

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Melissa Forbes, Senior Lecturer in Contemporary Singing, University of Southern Queensland

Singing with others feels amazing. Group singing promotes social bonding and has been shown to raise oxytocin (the “bonding hormone”) and decrease cortisol (the “stress hormone”).

But it’s not just about singing in groups. There are many unexpected ways
singing is good for you, even if you’re on your own.

Singing is a free and accessible activity which can help us live happier, healthier and more fulfilling lives.

And before you protest you are “tone deaf” and “can’t sing”, research shows most people can sing accurately in tune, so let’s warm up those voices and get singing.

1. Singing gets you in the zone

If you’ve ever lost track of time while doing something slightly challenging but enjoyable, you’ve likely experienced the flow state. Some people refer to this feeling as being “in the zone”.

According to positive psychology, flow, or deep engagement in a task, is considered one of the key elements of well-being.

Research has shown singing can induce the flow state in expert singers and group singing.

One way to get into this flow state is through improvisation.

Try your hand at some vocal improvisation by picking one phrase in a song you know well and playing around with it. You can improvise by slightly changing the melody, rhythm, even the lyrics.

You may well find yourself lost in your task – if you don’t realise this until afterwards, it is a sign you’ve been in flow.

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2. Singing gets you in touch with your body

Singers make music with the body. Unlike instrumentalists, singers have no buttons to push, no keys to press and no strings to pluck.

Singing is a deeply embodied activity: it reminds us to get in touch with our whole selves. When you’re feeling stuck in your head, try singing your favourite song to reconnect with your body.

Focus on your breathing and the physical sensations you can feel in your throat and chest.

Singing is also a great way to raise your awareness of any physical tensions you may be holding in your body, and there is increasing interest in the intersection between singing and mindfulness.

3. Singing as exercise

We often forget singing is a fundamentally physical task which most of us can do reasonably well.

When we sing, we are making music with the larynx, the vocal tract and other articulators (including your tongue, lips, soft and hard palates and teeth) and the respiratory system.

Just as we might jog to improve our cardiovascular fitness, we can exercise the voice to improve our singing. Functional voice training helps singers understand and use their voice according to optimal physical function.

Singing is increasingly being used to help improve respiratory health for a wide range of health conditions, including those with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, Parkinson’s, asthma and cancer.

Because singing provides such a great workout for the respiratory system, it is even being used to help people suffering from long COVID.

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4. Singing builds psychological resources

Group singing can help combat social isolation and create new social connections, help people cope with caring burdens and enhance mental health.

Studies show these psychological benefits flow because group singing promotes new social identities.

When we sing with others we identify with, we build inner resources like belonging, meaning and purpose, social support, efficacy and agency.

5. Singing for “super-ageing”

“Super-agers” are people around retirement age and older whose cognitive abilities (such as memory and attention span) remain youthful.

Research conducted by distinguished psychologist and neuroscientist Lisa Feldman Barrett and her lab suggest the best-known way to become a superager is to work hard at something.

Singing requires the complex coordination of various physical components — and that’s just to make a sound! The artistic dimension of singing includes memorisation and interpretation of lyrics and melodies, understanding and being able to hear the underlying musical harmony, sensing rhythm and much more.

These characteristics of singing make it an ideal candidate as a super-ageing activity.

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How to stay fit into your 60s and beyond

Melissa Forbes ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Flow state, exercise and healthy ageing: 5 unexpected benefits of singing – https://theconversation.com/flow-state-exercise-and-healthy-ageing-5-unexpected-benefits-of-singing-180415

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

George Christensen caused the government a heap of trouble while he was in the Nationals, and is set to be a pest now he’s jumped ship.

A year ago Christensen announced he wouldn’t re-contest at this election, saying “I think my time is done”. Now he’s opted, just days after resigning from the Liberal National Party, to run as third candidate on the One Nation Queensland Senate ticket.

He won’t win a seat but defeat will entitle him to a $105,000 “resettlement allowance”.

It had been earlier reported he’d tried to have the LNP disendorse him, so he could get this payout, but it had declined. (Christensen claims he is already likely entitled to the money but this is denied by government sources.)

At a news conference with his new leader, Pauline Hanson, Christensen said if he could help get Hanson and maybe her number two candidate elected it would be “the job done, because Pauline’s been a warrior for common sense conservative issues”.

Christensen, 43, member for the north Queensland seat of Dawson since 2010, has been extended an extraordinary degree of tolerance by his colleagues over the years. His party has treated him with kid gloves, despite some outrageous behaviour.

So indeed did his electorate. Regardless of his spending nearly 300 days in the Philippines between April 2014 and June 2018 – which earned him the title “the member for Manila” – the Dawson locals gave him a positive swing of more than 11% in 2019.

Over the years Christensen periodically threatened to cross the floor and sometimes did, although he was equally likely to draw back after kicking up the dust. In his book A Bigger Picture, Malcolm Turnbull has a diary entry saying Christensen kept threatening to move to the crossbench.

In late 2017 he encouraged Sky to report that an unnamed Coalition MP would quit the government if Turnbull remained prime minister, then changed his mind leaving a couple of presenters high and dry.

In the arguments over the handling of COVID, he featured prominently at anti-lockdown and anti-vaccination rallies.

In August last year he condemned the handling of the pandemic, declaring in a parliamentary speech: “restore our freedoms, end this madness.” Scott Morrison dissociated himself from Christensen’s views and the house voted to condemn his comments.

Christensen called the bluff of his peers and betters in the Nationals. When tackled about his maverick backbencher Barnaby Joyce would say that taking him on would be fruitless, and just make things more difficult. Nationals deputy leader David Littleproud earlier this year described him as a “free spirit” while disagreeing with him.

Christensen and Joyce only spoke about his defection on Tuesday night. On the campaign trail on Wednesday, Joyce described his action as an “unwelcome distraction”.

Senator Matt Canavan months ago tried to talk Christensen out of retiring, believing he was an asset for the LNP and a great campaigner.

Canavan now describes his former colleague as “a coward” for “shirking away from battles in the LNP” in favour of the “echo chamber” of a minor party. He’d deserted the Nationals party members, Canavan said.

Canavan admits that Christensen could harm the LNP Senate vote in Queensland, where there are “a lot of angry people” from the debate over COVID and vaccines.

Christensen told the Courier Mail he should have joined One Nation “a long time ago”.

“The more I queried One Nation’s policies and looked at their constitution, their core beliefs, the things that Pauline has been campaigning on recently, just about everything aligned with my views.”

On Sky on Wednesday night he said he hadn’t deserted anyone because “my beliefs are exactly the same. I’ve just realised One Nation is more in tune with those thoughts.” He rejected the gold-digging interpretation of his motives for running for One Nation.

He said he had fulfilled his “contract” because he had stuck with the LNP right to the end of the parliament before he “pulled the pin”. He named not just the handling of COVID but the signing up to the 2050 net zero target as among his beefs. One Nation was the only party in the parliament questioning “this religion of manmade climate change”.

“You get sick of defending the indefensible,” he said.

He said it was “not impossible” to win the Senate seat but it would be “a big ask”, although he claimed he was in One Nation “for the long haul”.

For a minor party, One Nation sure has a big umbrella. In their earlier years George Christensen and former Labor leader Mark Latham (now in the NSW parliament) would never have imagined they’d end up wearing the same brand.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. View from The Hill: New One Nation candidate George Christensen set to win from losing – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-new-one-nation-candidate-george-christensen-set-to-win-from-losing-181275

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

In this episode, Michelle Grattan speaks with Joe Hockey about his newly-released memoir titled Diplomatic.

Hockey, treasurer in the Abbott government and former Australian ambassador to the United States, picked early that Donald Trump had a good prospect of becoming president and reached out to his team, something that went down badly at the time with the foreign affairs bureaucracy back in Canberra.

But Hockey says: “Diplomacy is just about human relations. It’s countries dealing on the same basis with each other as human beings. So you’re never going to get on well with someone you don’t know. You’re actually going to have to engage.”

Of Trump’s successor, Hockey says: “I think Joe Biden has aged quite a bit in the presidency. He’s only been president for just over a year. He’s really shown he hasn’t had the energy that you would expect of someone as president of the United States.”

Also, “he’s run a very left wing agenda, and that’s completely stunned – completely stunned – middle America, because they thought he was a safe, middle-of-the-road sort of person.

“America is just not tuned into that. They’re not buying that.”

Speaking about the differences between US and Australian politics, Hockey highlights the significance of compulsory voting in this country. “I think the challenge in the United States is, you know, firstly, you try and get your own people to vote. And the more extreme you are, the more you villainise, and radicalise your opponents. It’s easier to get people to come out and vote for you if they’re against something.

“We don’t have that battle for the extremes, and I think that’s really, really important,” he says.

“The political ads and what people say about each other in the United States has no filter, has no boundaries. And as a result, it becomes more fractious, becomes much more aggressive. And I think it’s really, really important that proper defamation laws [exist] that allow someone to go in and protect their reputation so that people cannot make ridiculous, false accusations against others.”

And Hockey’s prediction for May 21? “I think it’s just too close to call, really. I genuinely feel that both parties have a pathway to victory. And then, as so often the case, as events unfold during the campaign, we’ll get a clearer picture of which way […] the events are breaking.”

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Joe Hockey on Trump, Biden, and the federal election – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-joe-hockey-on-trump-biden-and-the-federal-election-181270

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Benjamin Clark, Deputy Engagement Editor, The Conversation

George Christensen, the maverick Liberal-National Party member from far north Queensland, dropped the pre-Easter bombshell that he is no longer heading for retirement but joining One Nation. Today, the Below the Line podcast team unpack what this means for the major parties’ prospects in that seat and for the election result.

Joining our host, award-winning broadcaster Jon Faine, is Anika Guaja who says the defection is a big win for One Nation, whose leader Pauline Hanson says they will field candidates in every Australian electorate.

Meanwhile, Andrea Carson finds that One Nation is getting more public interactions (likes, shares and comments) on Facebook for political posts than any other party or politician including the Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Carson says this shows One Nation’s mastery in reaching voters with their conversational style of messaging on social media.

Simon Jackman notes that even before the media publicly shamed Anthony Albanese with front page headlines for failing to recall the unemployment rate on the first day of campaigning, Labor’s vote lead was already narrowing according to different pollsters.

With early voting opening on May 9, ahead of polling day on May 21, our panel looks at what this means for media messaging, polls and political strategies. Added to this is the Australian Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers’ unprecedented announcement that COVID-19 affected voters will be able to lodge their vote by telephone on election day. This has never happened in a federal Australian election before. This raises all sorts of questions about how the vote will be recorded and counted, especially for those of you who choose to vote “below the line” on the Senate ballot.

Listen to our expert panel’s latest election insights, and thank you for tuning in and propelling Below the Line into the top 20 Australian news podcasts on Spotify this week after just two episodes. Keep listening, we’ll have more to come right up until election day.

Image: Darren England/AAP

– ref. Below the Line: Does George Christensen’s defection spell a win for One Nation? And are Australian parties ‘lazy’? – podcast – https://theconversation.com/below-the-line-does-george-christensens-defection-spell-a-win-for-one-nation-and-are-australian-parties-lazy-podcast-181252

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lachlan G. Howell, Postdoctoral Research Fellow | Centre for Integrative Ecology, Deakin University

Australia’s wildlife was hit hard by the 2019-20 Black Summer megafires.

Amongst the casualties were our iconic tree-dwelling koalas, with an estimated 5000 dead in New South Wales alone. They are now officially endangered in three states and territories.

In response, researchers are ramping up captive breeding to prevent extinction. Unfortunately, captive breeding faces two major challenges: it’s expensive, and it can be hard to maintain genetic diversity.

To tackle both issues, our new modelling study backs the approach of biobanking (freezing koala sperm) and tailored assisted reproduction techniques. We found these techniques would result in a five-fold decrease in the costs of running captive breeding programs.

Despite their promise, these reproductive tools have not yet become widely used in conservation. With koalas facing an uncertain future, it’s time to explore their full potential. If we get this right, we could use the same tools to help other species in rapid decline.

What are these techniques?

In animals, biobanking refers to freezing and storing sperm, eggs and embryos, as well as other cells and tissues from the body. These techniques have long been used in agriculture to store valuable sperm from top breeding bulls and crops in seed banks.

Read more:
It’s fish on ice, as frozen zoos make a last-ditch attempt to prevent extinction

Most people are aware of in vitro fertilisation (IVF), a common assisted reproductive technology, but other options exist such as artificial insemination and direct sperm injection into the egg. In humans, IVF and sperm injection have dramatically improved fertility while artificial insemination has revolutionised the breeding of livestock.

Models show huge drop in costs and less inbreeding

In our modelling, we set the goal of maintaining at least 90% of the genetic diversity in the captive population over a century.

We compared conventional natural breeding programs to programs mixing natural breeding with frozen koala sperm from wild animals delivered by artificial insemination or direct sperm injection.

We found supplementing captive breeding with frozen sperm would dramatically slow inbreeding rates, produce genetically healthier animals and require fewer animals to be held in breeding colonies.

To reach the genetic target, you would need 223 koalas in a conventional captive program. By contrast, adding assisted reproduction means you’d only have to keep 17 koalas.

These much smaller colony sizes are what drives down the cost. When you factor in the costs of assisted reproduction, including sperm freezing and performing artificial insemination or sperm injection, you still end up with a more than five-fold reduction in costs.

Let’s put these technologies to work

While these technologies have proven their worth for us and for livestock, we largely haven’t put them to work in wildlife recovery. We believe this is a missed opportunity to cut costs and boost genetic diversity.

Read more:
To save koalas from fire, we need to start putting their genetic material on ice

The few programs which have embraced these techniques have seen success.
North America’s black-footed ferret is coming back from the edge of extinction, aided in part by assisted reproduction techniques. In the 1980s, the last remaining 18 black-footed ferrets were brought into a captive breeding program in America. Because the genetic diversity was so low, researchers used artificial insemination and frozen sperm to reintroduce lost genes and reduce the damage from inbreeding.

What do we need to do?

In recent years, we’ve seen significant investment in frozen storage and genomic sequencing of tissue samples collected from wild koalas.

These technologies are useful to take stock of the genetic health of koala populations. But they can’t help us restore lost genetic diversity to wild populations because the frozen tissue samples cannot be turned into living animals.

While we’ve seen some progress in tailoring these technologies to koalas, there’s more to do. To date, 34 koala joeys have been born using artificial insemination in tame zoo koalas. These joeys, however, came from fresh or chilled sperm, not frozen. To use frozen sperm requires more research and technology development. Other procedures like embryo transfer and cryopreservation of sperm will also need more development.

Read more:
Human reproductive technologies like sperm freezing and IVF could be used to save threatened species

If we perfect these techniques and technologies, we could see new possibilities for koala conservation.

These include:

• using genetic material from dead or sick koalas which would otherwise be lost
• preserving gene pools from genetically important koala populations at risk of extinction
• protecting the species against catastrophic events in the wild linked to climate change, disease and bushfire, which can cause major genetic loss
• reducing inbreeding in captive breeding programs and producing genetically fit koalas for release
• overcoming issues of separated populations and ensuring desirable breeding pairs can actually breed
• tackling relocation issues emerging from the varying diets of koalas across regions and risk of disease transfer.

We already have the expertise

Australia already has a strong network of wildlife hospitals and zoos across the koala’s range in eastern Australia, as well as existing captive colonies and technical and husbandry expertise.

With a relatively small amount of funding (A$3-4 million to start, A$1 million annually), these sites could be equipped to collect and store koala sperm from wild populations and help perfect the technologies we need to make this a reality.

Longer term, we could adapt these technologies for other endangered marsupials. The potential is real. All we need now is attention from researchers and funding bodies.

Lachlan G. Howell is affiliated with Deakin University, the Centre for Integrative Ecology, the University of Newcastle, and FAUNA Research Alliance. Lachlan is funded by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC. Lachlan is a member of the Australasian Wildlife Management Society. Lachlan would like to acknowledge several co-authors on the research study referenced in this article including Stephen D. Johnston, Justine K. O’Brien, Richard Frankham, John C. Rodger, Shelby A. Ryan, Chad T. Beranek, John Clulow and Donald S. Hudson. We also thank Port Stephens Koala Hospital and their president Ron Land for assistance in under-standing the required program costs used in the models.

Ryan R. Witt receives funding from Taronga Conservation Society Australia, the Mid North Coast Joint Organisation, WWF-Australia’s Regenerate Australia Program, and the Paddy Pallin Foundation administered by the Royal Zoological Society of New South Wales. He is affiliated with the University of Newcastle and FAUNA Research Alliance. Ryan is a member of the Royal Zoological Society of New South Wales, is a scientific associate of Taronga Conservation Society Australia, and is the Australasian board member of the Companion Animals and Non-Domestic Endangered Species Committee of the International Embryo Technology Society.

John Clulow is affiliated with the University of Newcastle (Research Affiliate) and the Fauna Research Alliance.

– ref. Frozen sperm and assisted reproduction: time to pull out all stops to save the endangered koala – https://theconversation.com/frozen-sperm-and-assisted-reproduction-time-to-pull-out-all-stops-to-save-the-endangered-koala-179368

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Aaron J. Snoswell, Post-doctoral Research Fellow, Computational Law & AI Accountability, Queensland University of Technology

If you’ve seen photos of a teapot shaped like an avocado or read a well-written article that veers off on slightly weird tangents, you may have been exposed to a new trend in artificial intelligence (AI).

Machine learning systems called DALL-E, GPT and PaLM are making a splash with their incredible ability to generate creative work.

These systems are known as “foundation models” and are not all hype and party tricks. So how does this new approach to AI work? And will it be the end of human creativity and the start of a deep-fake nightmare?

1. What are foundation models?

Foundation models work by training a single huge system on large amounts of general data, then adapting the system to new problems. Earlier models tended to start from scratch for each new problem.

DALL-E 2, for example, was trained to match pictures (such as a photo of a pet cat) with the caption (“Mr. Fuzzyboots the tabby cat is relaxing in the sun”) by scanning hundreds of millions of examples. Once trained, this model knows what cats (and other things) look like in pictures.

But the model can also be used for many other interesting AI tasks, such as generating new images from a caption alone (“Show me a koala dunking a basketball”) or editing images based on written instructions (“Make it look like this monkey is paying taxes”).

2. How do they work?

Foundation models run on “deep neural networks”, which are loosely inspired by how the brain works. These involve sophisticated mathematics and a huge amount of computing power, but they boil down to a very sophisticated type of pattern matching.

For example, by looking at millions of example images, a deep neural network can associate the word “cat” with patterns of pixels that often appear in images of cats – like soft, fuzzy, hairy blobs of texture. The more examples the model sees (the more data it is shown), and the bigger the model (the more “layers” or “depth” it has), the more complex these patterns and correlations can be.

Read more:
What is a neural network? A computer scientist explains

Foundation models are, in one sense, just an extension of the “deep learning” paradigm that has dominated AI research for the past decade. However, they exhibit un-programmed or “emergent” behaviours that can be both surprising and novel.

For example, Google’s PaLM language model seems to be able to produce explanations for complicated metaphors and jokes. This goes beyond simply imitating the types of data it was originally trained to process.

3. Access is limited – for now

The sheer scale of these AI systems is difficult to think about. PaLM has 540 billion parameters, meaning even if everyone on the planet memorised 50 numbers, we still wouldn’t have enough storage to reproduce the model.

The models are so enormous that training them requires massive amounts of computational and other resources. One estimate put the cost of training OpenAI’s language model GPT-3 at around US$5 million.

Read more:
Can robots write? Machine learning produces dazzling results, but some assembly is still required

As a result, only huge tech companies such as OpenAI, Google and Baidu can afford to build foundation models at the moment. These companies limit who can access the systems, which makes economic sense.

Usage restrictions may give us some comfort these systems won’t be used for nefarious purposes (such as generating fake news or defamatory content) any time soon. But this also means independent researchers are unable to interrogate these systems and share the results in an open and accountable way. So we don’t yet know the full implications of their use.

4. What will these models mean for ‘creative’ industries?

More foundation models will be produced in coming years. Smaller models are already being published in open-source forms, tech companies are starting to experiment with licensing and commercialising these tools and AI researchers are working hard to make the technology more efficient and accessible.

The remarkable creativity shown by models such as PaLM and DALL-E 2 demonstrates that creative professional jobs could be impacted by this technology sooner than initially expected.

Read more:
AI could be our radiologists of the future, amid a healthcare staff crisis

Traditional wisdom always said robots would displace “blue collar” jobs first. “White collar” work was meant to be relatively safe from automation – especially professional work that required creativity and training.

Deep learning AI models already exhibit super-human accuracy in tasks like reviewing x-rays and detecting the eye condition macular degeneration. Foundation models may soon provide cheap, “good enough” creativity in fields such as advertising, copywriting, stock imagery or graphic design.

The future of professional and creative work could look a little different than we expected.

5. What this means for legal evidence, news and media

Foundation models will inevitably affect the law in areas such as intellectual property and evidence, because we won’t be able to assume creative content is the result of human activity.

We will also have to confront the challenge of disinformation and misinformation generated by these systems. We already face enormous problems with disinformation, as we are seeing in the unfolding Russian invasion of Ukraine and the nascent problem of deep fake images and video, but foundation models are poised to super-charge these challenges.

Read more:
3.2 billion images and 720,000 hours of video are shared online daily. Can you sort real from fake?

Time to prepare

As researchers who study the the effects of AI on society, we think foundation models will bring about huge transformations. They are tightly controlled (for now), so we probably have a little time to understand their implications before they become a huge issue.

The genie isn’t quite out of the bottle yet, but foundation models are a very big bottle – and inside there is a very clever genie.

Aaron J. Snoswell’s research is funded by the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision-Making and Society (CE200100005).

Dan Hunter receives funding from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision-Making and Society (CE200100005)

– ref. Robots are creating images and telling jokes. 5 things to know about foundation models and the next generation of AI – https://theconversation.com/robots-are-creating-images-and-telling-jokes-5-things-to-know-about-foundation-models-and-the-next-generation-of-ai-181150