Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Rozefelds, Adjunct Assoc Professor Central Queensland University and Principal Curator Geosciences Queensland Museum, CQUniversity Australia

The Australian continent is now geologically stable. But volcanic rocks, lava flows and a contemporary landscape dotted with extinct volcanoes show this wasn’t always the case.

Between 40 and 20 million years ago – during the Eocene to Miocene epochs – there was widespread volcano activity across eastern Australia. In places such as western Victoria and the Atherton Tablelands in Queensland, it was even more recent.

Erupting volcanoes can have devastating consequences for human settlements, as we know from Pompeii in Italy, which was buried by ash when Mount Vesuvius erupted in 79 CE. But ash falls and lava flows can also entomb entire forests, or at least many of the plants within them.

Our studies of these rare and unique plant time capsules are revealing exquisitely preserved fossil floras and new insights into Australia’s botanical history. This new work is published in the journal Gondwana Research.

Remarkable preservation

The most common volcanic rocks are basalts. The rich red soils derived from them are among the most fertile in Australia.

But the rocks in which fossils occur are buried under basalts or other volcanic rock, and are called silcretes – the name indicates their origins are from silica-rich groundwaters. Silica is the major constituent of sand, and familiar to most of us as quartz.

What makes the silcrete plant fossils so fascinating is the superfine preservation of plant material. This includes fine roots and root nodules, uncurling fern fronds and their underground stems, the soft outer bark of wood, feeding traces and frass (powdery droppings) of insects, and even the delicate tissues and anatomy of fruits and seeds.

For this fine preservation to occur, first there needs to be a rapid burial, like that from a volcanic eruption. Then, there has to be an abundant source of silica — a condition met when the volcanic rocks began to weather.

The process where silica infills and preserves plant structures is referred to as “silicification” or “permineralisation”. When plant material is buried, it provides acidic conditions that are ideal for this to happen.

And the process need not take millions of years. Overseas studies of plants in hot springs or undertaken in the laboratory have shown that some types of silica will quickly infiltrate wood and plant tissues.

Why are these plant fossils significant?

Because of their rapid entombment by the volcanoes, we can be sure the plants were in situ (that is, their original location) and were actively growing. This means we can gain detailed information about the make-up of these past plant communities.

In other areas where plant fossils might accumulate – such as river deltas – we can never be sure how far the bits of plants were carried, and whether they were from different types of vegetation.

Silicification not only preserves plants, but also leaf litter on the forest floor and even the underlying soil containing roots and root nodules. The fossil plants that are preserved at different sites varies, indicating the presence of distinct plant communities.

The abundance of seeds and fruits at one site near Capella, in central Queensland, even indicated to us that the local volcanic eruptions are likely to have occurred in summer or early autumn during the fruiting season.

The extraordinary preservation of these fossils allows us to compare them with modern plants. In turn, this means we can accurately identify them.

The ferns include fronds and underground stems (rhizomes) of the familiar bracken fern (Pteridium). We have also found the distinctive seeds and lianas of the grape family (Vitaceae), along with evidence of insect damage in the wood. Two sites also had evidence of palms.

While there have been few previous studies on silcrete plants, we have revealed new insights into the history of the modern Australian flora.

Volcanoes shaped plant communities

Volcanic activity both destroys and modifies existing plant communities. It also provides new substrates for plants to colonise.

Several sites contained ferns – this may be because they are among the first living plants to colonise new volcanic terrains via their tiny wind-borne spores. For instance, it has been documented that bracken ferns were pioneer plants of the barren cone of the famous Krakatoa volcano after its eruption in 1883.

But the diversity of seeds and fruits at another site suggests that an existing forest was buried by volcanic activity.

Researchers have suggested that the key factors responsible for the evolution of the Australian fauna and flora during the Cenozoic period (the last 66 million years) were predominantly climate and environmental change. It happened, in part, due to the movement of the Australian continental plate northwards.

But the broad-scale volcano activity that occurred in eastern Australia during the Cenozoic has rarely been invoked as a key driver of such changes.

So remarkably preserved, the silcrete plant fossils are now providing startling new insights into the history of some groups of Australian plants and the vegetation types in which they grew.

The author would like to acknowledge co-author Raymond Carpenter from the University of Adelaide who contributed to this article.

Andrew Rozefelds receives funding from the Herman Slade Foundation and Churchill Trust, Australia.

– ref. A botanical Pompeii: we found spectacular Australian plant fossils from 30 million years ago – https://theconversation.com/a-botanical-pompeii-we-found-spectacular-australian-plant-fossils-from-30-million-years-ago-222512

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jeremy Bird, Research Associate, Ecology and Biodiversity, University of Tasmania

One of the largest publicly funded conservation investments in history is starting to pay off on Macquarie Island, our newly published study shows.

Sealers and whalers introduced cats, rats, rabbits and other animals to the island in the 19th century. Their impacts devastated the millions of seabirds breeding on the island. Numbers fell to a fraction of their former populations.

From 2011-14, the last non-native pests were cleared from the island. It was the end of a deadly chapter in the island’s history during which two bird species, a rail and a parakeet, were lost from the planet forever.

We looked for signs of recovery in populations of petrels, a group of highly specialised seabirds. We found that species listed as threatened have recovered to the point where they can be delisted. There’s still a long way to go, though, before their populations return to historical levels.

Read more:
The good news: 25 Australian birds are now at less risk of extinction. The bad news: 29 are gone and 4 more might be

A highly threatened group of birds

Petrels can live for decades and spend most of their lives over the open oceans far from land. Some circumnavigate the Pacific each year.

Petrels return to land only to breed on remote islands that are naturally free of mammalian predators.

Under natural circumstances petrels can be enormously abundant. This means they play important roles in marine food webs. And, by transferring marine nutrients to breeding islands, they enrich whole island ecosystems.

Petrels usually come ashore only at night and nest in underground burrows to ward off predatory birds. However, these behaviours have been no defence against the cats and rats introduced to most of the world’s islands. As a result, petrels are among the world’s most threatened bird groups.

These habits make petrels extremely difficult to study, so good information is lacking. We used novel technologies and new analytical approaches to calculate the population and distribution of four species across Macquarie Island and to compare these with surveys from the 1970s.

Read more:
Why are dead and dying seabirds washing up on our beaches in their hundreds?

What did the study find?

Antarctic prions (Pachyptila desolata) remain the most widespread and common of the four species. They survived on the barren, elevated interior of the island in areas relatively inhospitable to predators. There are about 160,000 breeding pairs today, increasing by around 1% each year.

In the 1970s, cats ate an estimated 11,000 white-headed petrels (Pterodroma lessonii) each year. Only 15% of nests were successfully fledging chicks. Today there are about 12,800 pairs with a breeding success rate of about 80%.

White-headed petrels’ range remains smaller than it was, and they were likely close to extinction before cats were eradicated in 2001. Listed as vulnerable in Tasmania, the population is growing by 1% a year and now warrants delisting.

Two species, grey petrel (Procellaria cinerea) and blue petrel (Halobaena caerulea), became extinct on the main island in the 1900s. Grey petrels disappeared altogether, while 500–600 pairs of blue petrels survived on a few coastal rock stacks. Both have now recolonised the main island.

Grey petrels still number only in the low hundreds and blue petrels in the thousands, but are increasing at more than 10% each year. Our data suggest blue petrels no longer qualify as a federally listed vulnerable species. Grey petrels will no longer qualify for listing as endangered in Tasmania if they increase at the same rate until 2026.

Read more:
Penguin paradise and geological freak: why Macquarie Island deserves a bigger marine park

Recovery has only just begun

It is testament to the hard work of all those involved in eradicating invasive species that these bird species are showing signs of recovery. Yet we found ourselves pondering what “recovery” really means.

We don’t know what Macquarie Island was like before humans first visited in 1810. To try to understand this, we identified suitable areas for recovering petrel populations by comparing with analogous islands with different invasive species histories.

The species we studied still occupy only a tiny fraction of the island. They were almost certainly many times more abundant historically. It will take decades for populations to fulfil their ecological roles again – if threats like climate change and avian influenza don’t halt their recovery.

Read more:
Avian influenza has killed millions of seabirds around the world: Antarctica could be next

A vision of an island of abundance reborn

This is our vision of Macquarie Island if these amazing birds make a full recovery.

Days before visitors first sight land, thousands of seabirds swirl around the ship at sea. The white undersides of blue petrels and prions outnumber the spindrift cresting each wave. Rather than ones or twos, there’s a constant stream of white-headed and soft-plumaged petrels.

On the island, all must tread carefully, sticking to managed paths to avoid collapsing burrows in the super-colonies that cover seaward-facing slopes. These areas, once denuded by rabbit grazing, have revegetated. A labyrinth of tunnels through the undergrowth blurs the lines between the surface and underground world.

In places the smell of ammonia is powerful. Even more pervasive is the warm, musty smell associated with petrel plumage.

By day, predatory skuas patrol the colonies, going from burrow entrance to entrance, as the occupants sit silently within. As the sun sinks, a scan from land with binoculars finds the petrels approaching en masse, loitering over coastal waters as they wait for the cover of darkness.

At dusk, black silhouettes swarm like flies up and down the coastal hills. Where once the night was silent save for the wind, the slopes are bubbling with the purr and chatter of blue petrels, the “kwick, kwick, kwick” calls of white-headed petrels and the mournful cries of soft-plumaged petrels. Once a forlorn few, the calls have become an excited cacophony.

Justine Shaw receives funding from the Australian Antarctic Science Program, the Australian Research Council and Department of Industry, Science and Resources, Australia. She is a member of the Commonwealth Government’s Threatened Species Scientific Committee, and a director of the Landscape Recovery Foundation

Jeremy Bird and Richard Fuller do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Ridding Macquarie Island of pests pays off as seabirds come back from the brink – but recovery has just begun – https://theconversation.com/ridding-macquarie-island-of-pests-pays-off-as-seabirds-come-back-from-the-brink-but-recovery-has-just-begun-221992

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emma Shortis, Adjunct Senior Fellow, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT University

It is possible, in politics as in life, for several things to be true at once.

It is true that Donald Trump and his plans for a second presidential administration represent an existential threat to American democracy.

It is true that a media imperative for “balance” in political reporting is further degenerating into a “both sides”, false balance framework that is distorting our sense of what is at stake in this presidential campaign.

It is true that hether we think it fair or not, Biden’s age is going to frame coverage of the election. Just this week, for example, the New York Times ran a story with the headline “Which Is Worse: Biden’s Age or Trump Handing NATO to Putin?”.

As others have pointed out, this kind of narrative approach is calcifying. It does not seem to matter, for example, that in his incendiary comments about Biden’s age, special counsel Robert Hur took grossly inappropriate liberties in editorialising. It would not matter if Biden did not make another slip for the entire campaign (which, given what we know about the president, seems unlikely), and it does not matter that these slips may not have anything to do with advancing age.

It is also true that Biden is too old. At 81, he is already too old now, and if he does see out a second term, he will be 86. In the end, that may not affect the outcome of the election – in 2020 and 2022, American voters demonstrated that they saw Trump’s politics as a far greater threat to American democracy, stability and prosperity than Biden’s age.

But that does not change the fact that he is too old. As Fintan O’Toole recently argued,

Biden, fairly or otherwise, is the lightning rod for deep generational discontents and widespread unhappiness at the persistence of an American gerontocracy.

So why, given all these truths, is Biden still – barring any significant changes in the status quo – all but guaranteed the Democratic nomination?

The ‘veep’ problem

In as much as there are any “lessons” from American history, it is generally true that if a president is not running, the vice president gets the first shot at the job. Vice President Harry Truman, for example, succeeded President Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Vice President Lyndon Baines Johnson was sworn in after the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, and went on to win the 1964 election. Moving closer to the present, examples include Vice President George H.W. Bush’s successful run after President Ronald Reagan’s history-shaping two terms, or Vice President Al Gore’s nomination after he served twice under President Bill Clinton.

The point is, the vice presidency exists precisely for this reason – the VP is second in line for the presidency and so presumably the best choice for leadership after the president. If the president can not or will not run, the VP is all but assured the nomination.

When then-presidential candidate Joe Biden announced Kamala Harris would be his vice-presidential running mate in 2020, he said:

Kamala Harris is the best person to help me take this fight to Trump […] then to lead this nation.

After a hard-fought nomination contest, Biden chose Harris, 20 years his junior and a woman of colour, very much in the context of his commitment to act as a generational “bridge” for the Democratic Party.

In her position as vice president and in the context of history, Harris is the obvious successor to Biden.

So why hasn’t Biden built her a bridge?

Without hearing from the president specifically on this point, we can only speculate based on the evidence we have.

The most obvious answer is that Biden, having chosen her as his second, now thinks – for whatever reason – that Harris is not the right candidate for leadership and/or would not win a presidential election. There has been significant negative coverage speculating about Harris’ lack of political nous and appeal. Given what is at stake this year, it seems likely that Biden is simply not willing to risk it all on Harris.

To be fair to the vice president, this may not actually have anything to do with her political abilities.

Harris has already been on the receiving end of vicious, racist attacks from Trump supporters, including death threats. There is a reason so many conspiracy theories coming from the right focus on powerful women and, more often than not, Black women – on Harris, former First Lady Michelle Obama, and even Taylor Swift. In a febrile political environment, were Harris to be the nominee, it is almost certain sections of the American right would explode.

It is entirely possible that the significant risk to Harris herself, and to American political stability more broadly, are factoring into Biden’s decision to run again, despite the overwhelming focus on his age.

As Jill Lepore has argued, while decisions like this are being made ostensibly (and understandably) to mitigate the risk of political violence, they may end up having the effect of justifying or even encouraging it.

Nevertheless, for these reasons and possibly others, it seems as though Biden will not anoint Harris as his successor.

Simply put, if Biden does not choose Harris, he cannot choose anyone else without catastrophically undermining his own administration and authority.

Even hinting he thinks it should be someone other than himself or his vice president would suggest Biden made the wrong choice to begin with – not a risk he is likely to take, despite the stakes.

Read more:
Will abortion be the issue that swings the 2024 US presidential election?

For want of a better alternative

Whether Biden is unwilling or just feels unable to pass the leadership baton to Harris isn’t really the point. The point is that he won’t do it and is, therefore, stuck.

That doesn’t mean, of course, that circumstances won’t change.

It is entirely possible Biden will change his mind, or become unable to run, or that some other event will force the hand of the Democratic Party.

Practically, it is now too late for another viable candidate to run for the nomination – filing deadlines have mostly already passed, and the challenges of publicity and fundraising are all but insurmountable.

If Biden were to pull out, timing would be crucial, and would likely need to be at or immediately before the Democratic National Convention in August. The best possible scenario in this case is that the contest heads to a brokered convention, in which delegates previously committed to Biden are freed, by him, to vote for another candidate.

Read more:
Joe Biden could still stand down before the election – here’s how and what would happen next

Exactly who that candidate might be is an open question, and another likely reason that Biden and the Democrats more broadly are extremely reluctant to go down this path.

Once again, the obvious candidate is Harris. If it isn’t (perhaps for the reasons outlined above), it’s not clear who it could be, or how deep divisions would run. There are several prominent, popular Democrats who might contest, including Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, California Governor Gavin Newsom or Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear.

Historically, the in-fighting that would come with such a contest, even if it were amicable, has not played well for Democrats, and would almost certainly put them on the back foot come November. That’s not an insurmountable challenge, and might even be the right choice given the circumstances, but it would be an enormous political risk for a party generally averse to taking big chances.

Biden has called this election a “battle for the soul of America”. Given the existential stakes of this election, Democrats are left with few good choices.

Some truths are self-evident. That doesn’t make them easier to face.

Emma Shortis is Senior Researcher in International and Security Affairs at independent think tank The Australia Institute.

– ref. Some truths are self-evident: Joe Biden is too old. But who could possibly replace him? – https://theconversation.com/some-truths-are-self-evident-joe-biden-is-too-old-but-who-could-possibly-replace-him-223634

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lauren Ball, Professor of Community Health and Wellbeing, The University of Queensland

You’ve probably seen recent claims online seed oils are “toxic” and cause inflammation, cancer, diabetes and heart disease. But what does the research say?

Overall, if you’re worried about inflammation, cancer, diabetes and heart disease there are probably more important things to worry about than seed oils.

They may or may not play a role in inflammation (the research picture is mixed). What we do know, however, is that a high-quality diet rich in unprocessed whole foods (fruits, vegetables, nuts, seeds, grains and lean meats) is the number one thing you can to do reduce inflammation and your risk of developing diseases.

Rather than focusing on seed oils specifically, reduce your intake of processed foods more broadly and focus on eating fresh foods. So don’t stress out too much about using a bit of seed oils in your cooking if you are generally focused on all the right things.

Read more:
9 signs you have inflammation in your body. Could an anti-inflammatory diet help?

What are seed oils?

Seed oils are made from whole seeds, such as sunflower seeds, flax seeds, chia seeds and sesame seeds. These seeds are processed to extract oil.

The most common seed oils found at grocery stores include sesame oil, canola oil, sunflower oil, flaxseed oil, corn oil, grapeseed oil and soybean oil.

Seed oils are generally affordable, easy to find and suitable for many dishes and cuisines as they often have a high smoke point.

However, most people consume seed oils in larger amounts through processed foods such as biscuits, cakes, chips, muesli bars, muffins, dipping sauces, deep-fried foods, salad dressings and margarines.

These processed foods are “discretionary”, meaning they’re OK to have occasionally. But they are not considered necessary for a healthy diet, nor recommended in our national dietary guidelines, the Australian Guide for Healthy Eating.

I’ve heard people say seed oils ‘promote inflammation’. Is that true?

There are two essential types of omega fatty acids: omega-3 and omega-6. These are crucial for bodily functions, and we must get them through our diet since our bodies cannot produce them.

While all oils contain varying levels of fatty acids, some argue an excessive intake of a specific omega-6 fatty acid in seed oils called “linoleic acid” may contribute to inflammation in the body.

There is some evidence linoleic acid can be converted to arachidonic acid in the body and this may play a role in inflammation. However, other research doesn’t support the idea reducing dietary linoleic acid affects the amount of arachidonic acid in your body. The research picture is not clear cut.

But if you’re keen to reduce inflammation, the best thing you can do is aim for a healthy diet that is:

• high in antioxidants (found in fruits and vegetables)

• high in “healthy”, unsaturated fatty acids (found in fatty fish, some nuts and olive oil, for example)

• high in fibre (found in carrots, cauliflower, broccoli and leafy greens) and prebiotics (found in onions, leeks, asparagus, garlic and legumes)

• low in processed foods.

If reducing inflammation is your goal, it’s probably more meaningful to focus on these basics than on occasional use of seed oils.

What about seed oils and heart disease, cancer or diabetes risk?

Some popular arguments against seed oils come from data from single studies on this topic. Often these are observational studies where researchers do not make changes to people’s diet or lifestyle.

To get a clearer picture, we should look at meta-analyses, where scientists combine all the data available on a topic. This helps us get a better overall view of what’s going on.

A 2022 meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials investigated the relationship between supplementation with omega-6 fatty acid (often found in seed oils) and cardiovascular disease risk (meaning disease relating to the heart and blood vessels).

The researchers found omega-6 intake did not affect the risk for cardiovascular disease or death but that further research is needed for firm conclusions. Similar findings were observed in a 2019 review on this topic.

The World Health Organization published a review and meta-analysis in 2022 of observational studies (considered lower quality evidence compared to randomised controlled trials) on this topic.

They looked at omega-6 intake and risk of death, cardiovascular disease, breast cancer, mental health conditions and type 2 diabetes. The findings show both advantages and disadvantages of consuming omega-6.

The findings reported that, overall, higher intakes of omega-6 were associated with a 9% reduced risk of dying (data from nine studies) but a 31% increased risk of postmenopausal breast cancer (data from six studies).

One of the key findings from this review was about the ratio of omega-3 fatty acids to omega-6 fatty acids. A higher omega 6:3 ratio was associated with a greater risk of cognitive decline and ulcerative colitis (an inflammatory bowel condition).

A higher omega 3:6 ratio was linked to a 26% reduced risk of depression. These mixed outcomes may be a cause of confusion among health-conscious consumers about the health impact of seed oils.

Overall, the evidence suggests that a high intake of omega-6 fatty acids from seed oils is unlikely to increase your risk of death and disease.

However, more high-quality intervention research is needed.

The importance of increasing your omega-3 fatty acids

On top of the mixed outcomes, there is clear evidence increasing the intake of omega-3 fatty acids (often found in foods such as fatty fish and walnuts) is beneficial for health.

While some seed oils contain small amounts of omega-3s, they are not typically considered rich sources.

Flaxseed oil is an exception and is one of the few seed oils that is notably high in alpha-linolenic acid (sometimes shortened to ALA), an omega-3 fatty acid.

If you are looking to increase your omega-3 intake, it’s better to focus on other sources such as fatty fish (salmon, mackerel, sardines), chia seeds, hemp seeds, walnuts, and algae-based supplements. These foods are known for their higher omega-3 content compared to seed oils.

The bottom line

At the end of the day, it’s probably OK to include small quantities of seed oils in your diet, as long as you are mostly focused on eating fresh, unprocessed foods.

The best way to reduce your risk of inflammation, heart disease, cancer or diabetes is not to focus so much on seed oils but rather on doing your best to follow the Australian Guide for Healthy Eating.

Read more:
How is decaf coffee made? And is it really caffeine-free?

Lauren Ball works for The University of Queensland and receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Queensland Health and Mater Misericordia. She is a Director of Dietitians Australia, a Director of the Darling Downs and West Moreton Primary Health Network and an Associate Member of the Australian Academy of Health and Medical Sciences.

Emily Burch is an Accredited Practising Dietitian and member of Dietitians Australia.

– ref. If you’re worried about inflammation, stop stressing about seed oils and focus on the basics – https://theconversation.com/if-youre-worried-about-inflammation-stop-stressing-about-seed-oils-and-focus-on-the-basics-221310

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adam "Ben" Rohrlach, Mathematics Lecturer and Ancient DNA Researcher, University of Adelaide

After analysing DNA from almost 10,000 people from ancient and pre-modern societies, our international team of researchers have discovered six cases of Down syndrome in past human populations.

Our results, published today in Nature Communications, show people with Down syndrome lived in ancient populations. Although these individuals were very young when they died, they were all buried with care, indicating they were appreciated as members of their communities.

Down syndrome in humans

The DNA in our cells (our genome) is separated into 23 chromosomes, much like a book is separated into chapters. Most people carry two “versions” of the first 22 chromosomes, one from each of their parents. In some cases, people can have a third, extra copy of chromosome 21 (this condition is called trisomy 21).

This extra copy of chromosome 21 changes how the body and brain develop. People with trisomy 21 will have some level of intellectual disability and some characteristic physical features (such as almond-shaped eyes or a shorter height). The physical features that can result from trisomy 21 are called Down syndrome.

However, not every person with Down syndrome has the same physical features, and many of these features are not visible in the skeleton. This has made diagnosing Down syndrome from archaeological remains, which are often damaged and incomplete skeletons, very difficult.

However, we can detect trisomy 21 from even very small amounts of ancient DNA. This is because an additional chromosome 21 will lead to noticeably more DNA from chromosome 21 being present among the DNA that can be extracted from old bones and teeth.

Discovered across different times and places

After screening nearly 10,000 DNA samples, we identified six individuals with Down syndrome.

In our research, we screened nearly 10,000 DNA samples from across the world, dating as far back as when humans were hunter-gatherers. The six individuals we identified with Down syndrome were all from Europe, likely because this is where most of our ancient DNA samples were from.

Read more:
In a Stone Age cemetery, DNA reveals a treasured ‘founding father’ and a legacy of prosperity for his sons

One individual was buried in the 17th or 18th century in a church graveyard in Helsinki, Finland, under what is now a popular tourist attraction, the Helsinki Senate Square.

Another individual was discovered on the Greek island of Aegina, the closest Mediterranean island to Athens. This individual lived approximately 3,300 years ago, and was buried next to a house, with a rare and intricate bead necklace.

A third individual was discovered at the Bronze Age Bulgarian tell site (a settlement on a man-made hill) of Yunatsite, dating to around 4,800 years ago. This infant was buried under the floor of the home in a so-called “urn burial”.

The remaining three individuals were found in two Iron Age sites in Spain, Alto de la Cruz and Las Eretas, dating to approximately 2,500 years ago. According to the estimates of their age at death, these babies likely did not survive to birth.

However, they were buried with care within homes or within special buildings reserved for rituals. These burials were remarkable, as most people of the region during these times were cremated instead of buried.

We also compared the skeletons of the individuals with Down syndrome to identify common skeletal abnormalities, such as irregular bone growth, or porosity of the skull bones.

“Learning from this work may help to identify future cases of Down syndrome from skeletons when ancient DNA can’t be recovered,” says our co-author Patxuka de-Miguel-Ibáñez of the University of Alicante, the lead osteologist for the Spanish sites in the study.

An unexpected discovery

At one of the same Iron Age Spanish sites, we also identified an infant that carried an extra copy of chromosome 18. This condition, called Edwards syndrome, causes much more severe physical abnormalities, which could be observed in the skeletal remains. This baby likely only survived to 40 weeks’ gestation, but was also given a special burial.

The fact that three cases of Down syndrome and the one case of Edwards syndrome were found in just two contemporaneous and nearby settlements was a surprise to us.

“We don’t know why this happened,” says our co-author Roberto Risch, an archaeologist from The Autonomous University of Barcelona. “But it appears as if these people were purposefully choosing these infants for special burials.”

A view of our past

Today, individuals with Down syndrome live full and happy lives as valued members of our communities. Notably, our research found no adult individuals with Down syndrome. However, this study shows the perinates and infants that were found were clearly buried with care. In the case where a newborn survived, they were cared for until death.

As we discover and analyse more of these sorts of cases, we will be able to investigate the questions of how our near and distant ancestors viewed rare and uncommon genetic syndromes and how they cared for one another in these cases.

Read more:
We thought the first hunter-gatherers in Europe went missing during the last ice age. Now, ancient DNA analysis says otherwise

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Ancient DNA reveals children with Down syndrome in past societies. What can their burials tell us about their lives? – https://theconversation.com/ancient-dna-reveals-children-with-down-syndrome-in-past-societies-what-can-their-burials-tell-us-about-their-lives-216998

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jason Dutton, Professor of Chemistry, La Trobe University

Over the last 15 million years, Australia has slowly dried out. After humans arrived more than 65,000 years ago, they learned to use fire to their advantage. Today, fire weather is getting more frequent – and fires are following as the world heats up. This month, fires have flared in Victoria, destroying 46 houses, while Western Australia endures a heatwave and braces for potential fires.

We use controlled fire for food, industry and many other uses. But we fear it when it is uncontrolled. For something so common, it’s not well understood.

Fire is chemistry – a set of reactions known as combustion. Here’s what that means – and why parts of Australia are so well suited to fire.

What is fire?

For a fire to start, it needs three things: fuel, an oxidising agent and heat.

In bushfires, the fuel is plant material, the oxidising agent is oxygen in the atmosphere. The heat might come from lightning or the fire itself once it starts.

First, the heat has to get to the fuel. Plants are mostly comprised of cellulose (a natural carbohydrate polymer we can’t digest) and lignin (a complex aromatic hydrocarbon), alongside other organic molecules.

But big molecules such as cellulose and lignin don’t burn easily, unlike small molecules such as propane or ethanol. It takes an external heat source to get them to burn. This is normally in the form of lightning, the cause of most large bushfires. But humans have added other sources – a flicked cigarette, angle-grinders, or sparks from a downed powerline.

A little bit of extra heat won’t do it. But when cellulose and lignin are heated to 300°C, pyrolysis begins and the natural polymers begin to break down into small organic molecules, which promptly evaporate and form a gas.

At these temperatures, this gas rapidly reacts with oxygen in the air to produce carbon dioxide, water vapour – and heat. This is combustion.

As it burns, the gas becomes hot enough to glow, as do any solid particles within it. When we gaze at a campfire, that’s what we’re seeing – burning gas, glowing particles.

Many believe it’s the breaking of chemical bonds in the fuel that produces heat. But it’s actually the opposite. When we break any chemical bond, heat is absorbed. It’s making new chemical bonds that releases heat – the creation of water vapour and carbon dioxide.

These newly formed bonds are stronger than the bonds in the hydrocarbon fuel, meaning heat is released overall. So much heat that pyrolysis is sustained, consuming more fuel and spreading the fire.

What about the water in plants?

Plant material contains water as well as organic compounds.

There’s a unique bit of chemistry which takes place here. When heat first hits plant material, the water within begins to warm. But water has an extraordinarily high ability to store heat.

As water heats up, it begins to evaporate. Evaporation is endothermic, meaning it absorbs heat. That’s why we use it to stop ourselves overheating – we rely on sweat evaporating off our skin and taking heat with it.

This means you need still more energy to increase the temperature and overcome water’s heat absorbing properties. For pyrolysis to occur at all, the water in the plant matter has to evaporate. If there’s still water in the leaves or bark, it won’t burn.

Read more:
How does the stuff in a fire extinguisher stop a fire?

Fire weather and gum trees

Australia’s forests and bushlands are mostly on the east coast, avoiding the arid interior. But they can’t avoid the extremely hot and dry air the deserts produce, especially over summer.

Hot air can hold a remarkable amount of water. Its ability to soak up water roughly doubles every 10°C. So hot, dry air acts like a sponge. It scours the water from plant matter and soaks it up.

Plant material largely comes from gum trees. Our hundreds of species are famously messy, dropping bark, leaves and limbs on the forest floor.

Eucalyptus leaves often contain large amounts of volatile organic oils. In dry conditions, these leaves act as like natural lighter fluid, or “pre-pyrolysed material”.

This is because eucalypts like fire. Fire wipes out competitor species and can trigger gumnut germination.

When a bushfire begins and starts to spread, it’s usually burning the dead, dry litter and grasses, not large living trees with plenty of water.

Dry fuel is one thing. But a bushfire needs wind to spread.

Hot days in Australia are often windy, due to the temperature difference between hot deserts and cold oceans. If a lightning triggers pyrolysis and starts a fire, wind is what makes it spread.

Wind provides fresh oxygen to the fire front, making it more intense. It also blows hot dry air over fresh fuel ahead of the fire front, drying it out. If there’s no wind, fire spreads much more slowly.

What does it take to end a bushfire? A large fire will naturally burn itself out if there’s no more fuel for it. Heavy rain can douse a fire, though coals can keep smouldering and restart fires if dry, hot air arrives again.

Firefighters make firebreaks to try to starve the fire of its fuel, spray water to wet and cool the fuel or apply chemical agents such as fire-fighting foam to prevent oxygen getting in.

If we add more and more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere it traps more heat, leading to hotter days. More heat means fire weather – hot, dry and windy conditions – is more likely. And that means combustion will be more likely in some places. Under climate change, there’s more fire in our future.

Read more:
Before fusion: a human history of fire

Jason Dutton receives funding from The Australian Research Council.

– ref. Fire is a chemical reaction. Here’s why Australia is supremely suited to it – https://theconversation.com/fire-is-a-chemical-reaction-heres-why-australia-is-supremely-suited-to-it-217275

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Juliana Zabatiero, Research Fellow, Curtin University

There have been concerns about screens making kids more sedentary and less active since TV was introduced more than half a century ago.

“Screen use” and “not enough exercise” are (separately) among the top health concerns Australian parents have about their children.

But screens are not necessarily the enemy of exercise. Our research looks at how screens can help children be physically active.

Read more:
‘Screen time’ for kids is an outdated concept, so let’s ditch it and focus on quality instead

How much exercise do kids need?

Australian guidelines around how much physical activity children need to do each day varies, depending on their age. And it’s even important for babies to spend time being active each day.

It’s recommended children up to 12 months old have at least 30 minutes of tummy time and as much interactive floor play as possible each day. Toddlers and preschoolers should be active for at least three hours per day, including energetic play.

For children five and above, it’s recommended at least 60 minutes each day of moderate to vigorous physical activity that makes the heart beat faster, including vigorous activities and activities that strengthen muscle and bone.

Our research

Concerns around screens making children sedentary are at least in part based on outdated ideas that position technology as either “good” or “bad”. Researchers today are more focused on how screens are used and in what context.

We are working on a larger project to develop online resources for parents about using digital technologies with their children.

In this part of the study, we have been exploring ideas on how to use technology to encourage young children to be active.

We gave a group of 13 families with children under five ideas on how to use technology to help their children be more active. Every week for 12 weeks, they received information and ideas from the federal government’s parenting website Raising Children Network, Playgroup WA and ABC Kids.

From this work, three messages to parents stood out:

1. Children can be active while using screens

We tend to think that when children are using screens, they are passive and sitting still.

But our study showed children can certainly be active while watching. So it is useful to provide space for them to do this and encourage them to move in response to what they are watching. This may run counter to traditional instructions to children watching TV to “sit still and be quiet”.

Content that involves music and dance (like the Wiggles) will naturally get children moving. But parents also found it helpful to encourage children to mimic their favourite character’s “action moves” when watching programs such as Spiderman or PJ Masks.

Our study looked at children five and under but older children could use digital games (such as Nintendo Switch’s Sports) that promote physical activity. Or they could use augmented reality apps that get them moving, such as Pokémon Go.

2. Technology can inspire off-screen physical activity

Parents told us they were able to use screens to inspire physical activity after viewing has stopped.

For example after watching Humpty’s Big Adventure parents could encourage children to build an obstacle course. Or watch the Bluey episode Keepy Uppy and then play the game.

This can help introduce variety into children’s physical play, which is important for developing new skills. As we have noted in a previous article, using an idea from a program can also help children transition away from screens without tantrums.

Read more:
3 ways to help your child transition off screens and avoid the dreaded ‘tech tantrums’

3. Taking videos can keep kids excited about moving

Many adults have watches or apps that record their steps and exercise and this helps them stay motivated to move. Technology can similarly be used to promote children’s activity.

Children in our study loved watching videos of themselves being active. Playing these back immediately or later (and sharing with family), reinforced their enthusiasm about how fun it is to be active. It also encouraged children to keep trying with skills.

You could try filming your child racing on their bike, demonstrating their skills on the monkey bars, climbing a tall part of the playground or working on ball skills.

For older children, you can also record dance, choreography or specific sporting skills such as stroke correction in tennis or swimming.

Parents also reported their children enjoyed using a stopwatch app to improve their time when completing a lap on their bike or tackling monkey bars. Other apps, like maps, can help plan a vigorous family walk.

Juliana Zabatiero receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Kate Highfield consults for ABC Kids, with a focus on supporting healthy technology use in play and learning. With colleagues, she receives or has received funding from the Australian Research Council.

Leon Straker receives funding from the Australian Research Council and National Health and Medical Research Council.

Susan Edwards receives funding from Australian Research Council.

– ref. Screen time doesn’t have to be sedentary: 3 ways it can get kids moving – https://theconversation.com/screen-time-doesnt-have-to-be-sedentary-3-ways-it-can-get-kids-moving-223460

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hannah McCann, Senior Lecturer in Cultural Studies, The University of Melbourne

With Taylor Swift pulling in over half-a-million audience members on her Australian tour, we’ve been thinking a lot about fans. In this series, our academics dive into fan cultures: how they developed, how they operate, and how they shape the world today.

Fandoms are their own universes of creativity, community, emotions and battles. A common aspect of fandom is fanfiction (or “fanfic”): when fans write stories about their favourite characters or celebrity idols. This work is self-published on dedicated fanfic sites, and stories can get tens of thousands of reads.

Much fanfic involves “shipping”: imagining relationships (“ships”) between characters. When shipping involves two men this is called “slash”, and two women “femslash”. A notable example of slash is fanfic on Johnlock, the ship between Sherlock Holmes and John Watson.

However, fandoms are often built around celebrities, not just characters. “Real Person Slash” imagines queer relationships between celebrities, and whole sub-fandoms emerge around queer ships of real people.

This genre is controversial within fandoms because it involves people with actual sexualities/identities. Perhaps nowhere is this more clear than among the debates in the Taylor Swift fandom.

Read more:
Shame, intimacy, and community: fangirls are mocked, but it is more complex than you might think

Taylor Swift and ‘Kaylors’

“Kaylors” believe Swift used to date model Karlie Kloss. They also believe several of Swift’s albums were inspired by Kloss as muse/heartbreaker, rather than Swift’s very public boyfriends.

The Kaylor fandom emerged as Swift and Kloss’ friendship developed in the heyday of celebrity social media intimacy, beginning with a tweet from Kloss to Swift in 2012.

Kloss and Swift’s public displays dimmed from public view over several years. Kloss married her long-time partner Joshua Kushner in 2018, and they have since had two children together. In light of this, most fans no longer believe Kaylor “is real”, aka, they believe that Kloss and Swift broke up at some point, or were never together.

It is unclear whether Kloss and Swift’s relationship was impacted by the fandom, and whether this changed their public behaviour.

A shifting fandom

Many Kaylors have now morphed into “Gaylors” who believe Swift is queer, or who simply enjoy undertaking queer readings of Swift’s lyrics.

Taylor’s music frequently expresses themes around yearning, secret desires, intolerant families, and fear of the judgement of others: experiences many queer people can relate to. There is even a whole annual fan retreat, called “Gaylore”, dedicated to fans coming together to analyse Swift’s body of work through a queer lens.

Many within the Gaylor fandom are also queer, though importantly – and unlike other queer spaces in the real world – you do not have to identify or explain your own sexuality to be part of the fandom.

As my colleague Clare Southerton and I have argued previously, queer shipping practices provide a unique space of queer belonging. These are communities where the collective focus is on celebrating and encouraging queer identification and pride, without having to individually identify – or even know – what your own sexuality is.

While no one is pressing Gaylors about their queer legitimacy, perhaps ironically, Kaylorism and Gaylorism is controversial because other fans claim this amounts to speculating on Swift’s sexuality. The heart of the issue with queer shipping and Real Person Slash is the “truth” becomes secondary to the output and desires of the fandom.

Queer desires

Kaylors and Gaylors “queer” their idol, or in other words, encourage queer narratives where there would otherwise be heteronormative assumptions made.

While for the mainstream, Swift is the canonical “All-American” straight woman, Kaylors/Gaylors suggest an alternative reality.

This is perhaps reminiscent of artist Zoe Leonard’s poem I want a President, released in 1992, which begins:

I want a dyke for president. I want a person with AIDS for president and I want a fag for vice president and I want someone with no health insurance and I want someone who grew up in a place where the earth is so saturated with toxic waste that they didn’t have a choice about getting leukemia.

Similarly to Leonard, the Kaylors/Gaylors have a desire for their “president” to represent counter-cultural existence. They express a longing for an alternative reality where it is possible that the most famous pop star in the world is a queer woman.

But what about the ethics?

There is some evidence that fan speculation about sexuality is genuinely taxing on celebrities. In his recent memoir Pageboy Elliot Page reflects on the pain caused by conjecture about his sexuality in the public eye before he was ready to come out.

The Kaylor/Gaylor fandom has become so controversial that the main Swift Reddit banned “speculating about Taylor’s sexuality”. In practice, this amounts to any mention of Kaylor, Gaylor or related queer content.

A recent opinion piece in the New York Times about the Gaylor phenomenon also caused a huge debate on the Internet about the ethics of discussing celebrity sexuality.

As some Gaylors have pointed out, given Swift has never “come out” as straight, assuming she is straight because of her public boyfriends is also a form of speculation.

As a result of this fraught debate, Gaylors are sometimes on the receiving end of homophobic sentiments from other fans.

Controversies over Real Person Slash and queer shipping ought to be approached with delicacy from those outside the fandoms. Fandoms are not homogenous groups.

The fights that emerge within these spaces can be intensely emotional, and deeply felt by those caught up.

An understanding of the significance of the community connections built around queer ships, and the subversive desires of these fans in a heteronormative world, must be balanced against the very real ethical concern about the impact of fan speculation, what counts as “speculation” and what causes harm.

Read more:
From Deadheads on bulletin boards to Taylor Swift ‘stans’: a short history of how fandoms shaped the internet

Hannah McCann is an “aca fan” (academic fan) within the Gaylor fandom

– ref. ‘Shipping’, ‘slash fic’ and ‘Gaylors’: fans can find community through ‘queering’ idols – but is it ethical? – https://theconversation.com/shipping-slash-fic-and-gaylors-fans-can-find-community-through-queering-idols-but-is-it-ethical-210971

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chris Wilson, Co-founder and director of Hate & Extremism Insights Aotearoa (HEIA) and director, Master of Conflict and Terrorism Studies, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

In March and August 2018, up to a year before he attacked two Christchurch mosques, Brenton Tarrant posted publicly online that he planned to do so. Until now, these statements have not been identified.

In fact, for four years before his attack, Tarrant had been posting anonymously but publicly on the online message board 4chan about the need to attack people of colour in locations of “significance”, including places of worship.

In its final report in 2020, the royal commission of inquiry into the terror attacks wrote:

The individual claimed that he was not a frequent commenter on extreme right-wing sites and that YouTube was, for him, a far more significant source of information and inspiration.
Although he did frequent extreme right-wing discussion boards such as those on 4chan and 8chan, the evidence we have seen is indicative of more substantial use of YouTube and is therefore consistent with what he told us.

Given the importance of online environments in radicalising lone actor terrorists, we questioned this and set out to investigate whether right-wing websites were important in Tarrant’s radicalisation.

What we found overturns a great deal of what we thought we knew about him. It also raises serious questions, not only about why this posting was not detected before the attack, but also why it has not been discovered in the five years since the March 15 attacks.

Beyond the manifesto

Having the opportunity to see Tarrant interact candidly with his online community, we see that much of what he stated in his manifesto was propaganda.

When he wrote in his manifesto that he was driven to violence by the lack of a political solution – a realisation that came to him in 2017 – we now know he had been calling for attacks against civilians at least as early as 2015.

Where he claimed he was not driven by antisemitism, we found hatred and conspiratorial distrust of Jews were central to his entire worldview.

Read more:
When life means life: why the court had to deliver an unprecedented sentence for the Christchurch terrorist

Although he claimed in his manifesto that he carried out his attack to preserve diversity and respect for all cultures, the violent racism and Islamophobia in his posting sets him apart, even in the darkest corners of 4chan.

We will be publishing more about Tarrant’s online history, including what radicalised him and what lessons can be learned. Here we introduce some of our initial findings.

Among other revelations, we show that there were numerous opportunities for the public and New Zealand and Australian security services to observe him making very threatening statements online.

We’ve chosen to repeat only a small number of Tarrant’s statements, given their highly offensive nature. However, we still advise caution before reading further.

Read more:
Out of the shadows: why making NZ’s security threat assessment public for the first time is the right move

How we found the posts

Because 4chan posts are anonymous, we used a combination of indicators to identify Tarrant. 4chan’s “politically incorrect” board – referred to as /pol/ – provides the time, date and location of each post, allowing us to match this against Tarrant’s travel to numerous countries over five years.

Tarrant also frequently provided personal information in his posts, and he used the same distinctive language. In some cases, he repeated points we know he made elsewhere. He openly and proudly stated his Australian identity, even as he called for violence.

He also often made specific grammatical errors which make his posting stand out. He uses this style in online writing samples as early as 2011, in his 2019 manifesto, and in a great deal of online posting in between. In combination, these indicators identify Tarrant.

Our team of four researchers reviewed thousands of anonymous posts and hundreds of threads on /pol/. We used the platform’s search function for particular words, phrases and images. As a team we carefully evaluated all posts which included several of the above indicators.

We maintained a very high evidence threshold for including posts in our analysis. We excluded some important statements that were almost certainly written by him, but for which only one or two of the above indicators were present.

What we found

By 2015, Tarrant was calling for mass violence against people of colour. Inspired by Dylann Roof’s massacre of nine Black worshippers in a church in Charleston, South Carolina, Tarrant excitedly claimed “violence is the last resort of a cornered animal”, and “it was always going to come to this”.

It was here Tarrant made clear that white nationalist extremists should target innocent victims in locations of “significance”, such as places of worship.

When other posters claimed Roof should have targeted a “ghetto”, Tarrant became frustrated. He explained that attacking unarmed people in a church is a “very simple tactic” necessary to provoke people of colour into retaliating. He used a highly racist phrase common on the /pol/ board to refer to this strategy.

Read more:
Using AI to monitor the internet for terror content is inescapable – but also fraught with pitfalls

For at least four years, then, Tarrant contemplated and planned on killing people in a location of emotional importance such as a school or place of worship.

In fact, he glorified a wide range of violence, including school and public shootings, the perpetrators of which were driven by psychological or other motives rather than white nationalist ideology.

He advocated for and praised the sadistic and brutal killing of innocent civilians. The key for Tarrant was that this violence was perpetrated by white men. For him, any white violence might trigger the race war and segregation he desired.

As he travelled the world between 2014 and 2018, Tarrant became increasingly focused on Muslims. His hatred persisted after arriving in New Zealand. Sometimes it spiralled into unhinged tirades.

Read more:
Can ideology-detecting algorithms catch online extremism before it takes hold?

In one thread, he claimed he would form and fund an armed band of 4chan users to conduct ethnic cleansing in the Balkans. Some of his posting is unusually violent even within the extremism of /pol/. With hindsight at least, it suggests potential opportunities for detection, most obviously by Australian authorities.

For example, in that same thread, he identified himself as Australian four times, and brazenly wrote there was nothing the Australian government could do to stop him.

At the moment of this violent fantasy, he emailed a gun club in Dunedin stating his plans to move to New Zealand. In the same week, he made donations to international far-right leaders.

Operational Security?

The royal commission into the Christchurch terror attacks concluded Tarrant made only “limited lapses” in operational security during his time in New Zealand between late 2017 and March 2019.

This is not the case. He posted regularly on /pol/, which is freely and publicly accessible. His posting was visible to numerous others whose identities he could not possibly know.

Two threads in March and August of 2018 in particular show his hatred of and plans to attack the Muslim community. As such, they presented opportunities for his detection.

In these threads, Tarrant and other users posted angrily about the spread of immigrants in New Zealand, and particularly the presence of mosques in small towns. Very soon, a group of anonymous posters, including Tarrant, discussed violence against the buildings (and the communities that gather in them).

When another user posted an image of a box of matches in reference to the mosques, Tarrant wrote “Soon”.

Revealing he was in Dunedin, Tarrant expressed his anger at the presence of mosques in that city, and in Christchurch and Ashburton to the north, using highly abusive language. When other users called on him to act, he wrote: “I have a plan to stop it. Just hold on.”

Far from maintaining tight operational security as he planned his attack, Tarrant openly (albeit anonymously) discussed violence against mosques in the South Island while in New Zealand.

Read more:
The royal commission report on the Christchurch atrocity is a beginning, not an end

Preventing it happening again

The 4chan community was crucial in Tarrant’s radicalisation (and the examples given here are just a portion of what we have found).

Given what we know about the importance of online environments in the radicalisation of other white nationalist terrorists, it is disturbing this aspect of Tarrant’s path to March 15 has not been investigated more thoroughly.

After all, his final words before the attack were released on the imageboard 8chan, but also intended for 4chan: “It’s been a long ride […] you are all top blokes and the best bunch of cobbers a man could ask for”.

It is hard to imagine a clearer signpost that the real nature of his radicalisation could be found on those forums.

Five years later, it seems we are only beginning to understand why he committed the atrocity, what might have been done to stop it, and how government agencies can work together with specialist extremism researchers to prevent it happening again.

More information about our study will be released at heiaglobal.com. Our research was approved by the University of Auckland Human Participant Ethics Committee. A paper based on this study has been submitted for peer review and publication.

Chris Wilson is the co-founder and director of Hate & Extremism Insights Aotearoa (HEIA).

Ethan Renner, Jack Smylie, and Michal Dziwulski do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Christchurch terrorist discussed attacks online a year before carrying them out, new research reveals – https://theconversation.com/christchurch-terrorist-discussed-attacks-online-a-year-before-carrying-them-out-new-research-reveals-223955

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The March 2 byelection in the outer suburban Melbourne seat of Dunkley is the third byelection this term but the first in a Labor-held electorate. It has been caused by the death late last year of Peta Murphy, after a long battle with cancer.

Labor’s margin sits at 6.3% in Dunkley, an electorate that has swung between the major parties.

Labor goes into the byelection as the favourite, as it seeks to sell its changes to the Stage 3 tax cuts. Most voters will be better off under the new package than they would have under the original version, although there will be some losers.

Labor’s candidate is Jodie Belyea, from Frankston, who has extensive experience working in the not-for-profit sector. The Liberals are fielding the Mayor of Frankston, Nathan Conroy.

To talk about the byelection, we are joined by the ABC’s election analyst Antony Green, Kos Samaras from the RedBridge Group, which has conducted research in Dunkley, and Tim Costello, former CEO of World Vision Australia and a Dunkley resident.

There are several measures of swing that can be used for byelections, and participants often adopt whichever suits them. Green says:

The best measure in the end is the average swing of about three and a half to four percent [against a government]. That’s the swing since Federation.

How is the government’s recently-announced reworked tax package going down in Dunkley? Drawing on the focus group RedBridge ran this week, Samaras says:

When it comes to the tax cuts announcement made by the Albanese government [it’s] welcomed but [has] not much of an impact in terms of alleviating some of these some of these […] financial problems. […] Their problem is in the hundreds of dollars every week not in the tens.

On voter engagement in Dunkley Samaras finds little interest:

I think the overwhelming sense is that they’re sick of getting mail in the letterbox and their YouTube feed being riddled with advertisements, and it’s annoying them. It’s perhaps a message to the political class out there.

As a resident observer, Costello says Belyea is

doing very well, particularly with women. There’s a lot of women in the area who’ve known her work. […] But it’s a big step up to federal politics when you haven’t been involved.

Conroy is

a very good campaigner. He is very slick and everywhere. And that ‘send Labor a message’ I think is cutting through.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Antony Green, Kos Samaras and Tim Costello on Dunkley contest – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-antony-green-kos-samaras-and-tim-costello-on-dunkley-contest-223961

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sanjoy Paul, Associate Professor, UTS Business School, University of Technology Sydney

To hear the Woolworths and Coles chief executives speak on Four Corners this week, you’d think their industry was highly competitive.

For instance, Woolies’ chief Brad Banducci said:

this community over here, there will be three Coles stores within two kilometres of it, at least one ALDI store, a series of independents, ability to within 24 hours have a quarter of our store delivered by Amazon – it’s an incredibly competitive market

Meanwhile, Coles’ chief Leah Weckert said:

there are quite often comparisons that are made between the UK and Australia, but Australia has about a third of the population, and we operate stores on a geographic footprint 30 times the size, those considerations need to be taken into account

Between them, Coles and Woolworths control 65% of Australia’s grocery market. Aldi has just 10%, and independents such as IGA have the rest.

Four Corners reported that meant that, on average, for every $10 Australians pay for groceries, $6.50 is spent at Coles and Woolworths, and just $1 at Aldi. In the United Kingdom, there are five major chains vying for a cut of that $10.

But having a large market share isn’t the same as unreasonably using it.

This week’s Four Corners set out eight ways in which Coles and Woolworths are said to use their market power, each of which will be examined by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s inquiry into supermarkets.

Many hurt their suppliers more than their customers.

1. Squeezing farmers

Hundreds of farmers have little choice but to sell their crops to the big two, and little choice but to accept whatever is offered.

One cherry farmer sent 15 tonnes of cherries to Coles – an entire semi-trailer load. He hoped to receive A$90,000.

Instead, he was told the fruit was not up to standard and was only able to get $5,800 on the seconds market.

He said when Coles is dealing with thousands and thousands of pieces of fruit, it can pick out ten pieces and say the consignment is no good.

so that is power, that’s market power when you can simply reject something for no great reason

The behaviour described might amount to “misuse of market power” under the Competition and Consumer Act 2010.

2. Demanding money to accept price increases

Four Corners told the story of a supplier who asked to be paid 5% more and was told the request would be approved only if he paid Coles A$25,000.

The lump sum was for promotions.

It said the Coles buyer’s initial desire to keep prices low for the consumer had been “quickly forgotten”.

The supplier said if he wasn’t prepared to do what the supermarket wanted, there was “a lot of intimidation”.

The tools used included deleting suppliers’ products from sale, forcing customers to buy their competitors’ products.

While this behaviour appears not to be illegal, it might worry the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission.

3. Charging for Coles Radio

Four Corners said suppliers wanting to do business with the big two were asked to pay for in-house advertising.

It quoted the cost of a full-page ad in Woolworths’ Fresh Magazine at $30,000, and the cost of a four-week spot on Coles radio at $28,000.

Suppliers were also expected to meet the cost of special discounts rather than the supermarket. That means suppliers need to set their recommended retail price at a higher level than was needed in order to offer periodic discounts.

While quite legal, this behaviour has the effect of forcing up general prices. It would be illegal if it misrepresented ordinary prices.

4. Matching prices

The supermarket giants monitor each other’s pricing very closely. If one changes its prices, the other follows.

A former category manager for Coles and Woolworths said if one put up a price, the other would quickly follow.

He said if you did five shops in Woolworths and five in Coles and spent around a hundred dollars, there would only be a few cents difference.

The behaviour might be the result of intense price competition of the kind the Commission wants to encourage, or it might be the result of an implicit understanding between the big two not to compete on price, something the Commission will be keen to determine.

5. Blaming inflation

Woolworths’ latest annual report shows its cost of doing business was flat, but its profit margin from selling groceries climbed from 5.3% to 6%, which meant an extra $318 million in profits.

An industry insider told Four Corners that the big two used “the cover of inflation” to raise prices, something each denied.

Woolworths said its price increases were legitimate, pointing to increases in the price of fertiliser, international freight, wages, and the cost of disruptions in obtaining goods.

Even if unjustified, there is nothing illegal about raising prices, unless false representations are made about the reasons, which is something the Commission will want to examine.

6. Banking land

An industry insider told Four Corners the big two buy up “spoiler sites” years before they even get approvals to build.

If they get the green light, it’s a new supermarket. If not, they’ve kept their rivals out.

In one growing community west of Brisbane, Woolworths bought more than 6 hectares of land over 11 years. But a supermarket is still years away.

German supermarket giant Kaufland abandoned plans to enter the Australian market in 2020. Media reports said a lack of suitable sites was one factor.

The Commission would be hard-pressed to find such behaviour was illegal unless it was able to make a case that it significantly lessened competition.

7. Dark stores

Delivery and click-and-collect orders sometimes come from “dark stores” without customers in which stock pickers work at speed in what can be stifling heat.

“There is an industry standard of a pick rate of about 180 items per hour,” one stock picker said. “Our warehouse, particularly during busy periods, will push you to go above and beyond that, which might be 210, 220.”

In the past, the names of pickers who fell behind were displayed in red.

Every summer there’s people who feel dizzy, every summer there’s people whose sweat’s just dripping off them and they want to sit down, but you get a 15-minute break in a five-hour shift

While not infringing on competition law, such behaviour might breach industrial laws. The Commission is likely to find it beyond the scope of its inquiry.

8. A conduct code with no penalty

Former Australian Competition and Consumer Commission Chairman Rod Sims, described the Food and Grocery Code of Conduct as a “joke” because it had no penalties.

He said it was like having a speed limit of 60 kilometres an hour with no penalty for driving at 80.

Woolworths conceded it hadn’t received a single complaint under the grocery code of conduct in the past year. Asked why, chief executive Brad Banducci said Four Corners should ask suppliers.

Only one continuing supplier agreed to appear in the program on the condition that the appearance was anonymous.

The Commission is certain to recommend that the code be given teeth.

Over to the Commission

The Competition and Consumer Commission’s investigation is likely to confirm that Australian supermarkets have some of the highest profit margins in the world, deriving in large part from their high market share.

At issue will be what this enables them to do to their suppliers and customers.

The Commission will publish an issues paper this month and report to the government in August.

Read more:
Why prices are so high – 8 ways retail pricing algorithms gouge consumers

Sanjoy Paul does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. 8 ways Woolworths and Coles squeeze their suppliers and their customers – https://theconversation.com/8-ways-woolworths-and-coles-squeeze-their-suppliers-and-their-customers-223857

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hannah Dahlen, Professor of Midwifery, Associate Dean Research and HDR, Midwifery Discipline Leader, Western Sydney University

The death of premature twins in Byron Bay in an apparent “wild birth”, or free birth, last week has prompted fresh concerns about giving birth without a midwife or medical assistance.

This follows another case from Victoria this year, where a baby was born in a critical condition following a reported free birth.

It’s unclear how common free birthing is, as data is not collected, but there is some evidence free births increased during the COVID pandemic.

Planned home births also became more popular during the pandemic, as women preferred to stay away from hospitals and wanted their support people with them.

But while free births and home births might sound similar, they are a very different practice, with free births much riskier. So what’s the difference, and why might people opt for a free birth?

What are home births?

Planned home births involve care from midwives, who are registered experts in childbirth, in a woman’s home.

These registered midwives work privately, or are part of around 20 publicly funded home birth programs nationally that are attached to hospitals.

They provide care during the pregnancy, labour and birth, and in the first six weeks following the birth.

Read more:
Explainer: what are women’s options for giving birth?

The research shows that for women with low risk pregnancies, planned home births attended by competent midwives (with links to a responsive mainstream maternity system) are safe.

Home births result in less intervention than hospital births and women perceive their experience more positively.

What are free births?

A free birth is when a woman chooses to have a baby, usually at home, without a registered health professional such as a midwife or doctor in attendance.

Different terms such as unassisted birth or wild pregnancy or birth are also used to refer to free birth.

The parents may hire a unregulated birth worker or doula to be a support at the birth but they do not have the training or medical equipment needed to manage emergencies.

Women may have limited or no health care antenatally, meaning risk factors such as twins and breech presentations (the baby coming bottom first) are not detected beforehand and given the right kind of specialist care.

Why do some people choose to free birth?

We have been studying the reasons women and their partners choose to free birth for more than a decade. We found a previous traumatic birth and/or feeling coerced into choices that are not what the woman wants were the main drivers for avoiding mainstream maternity care.

Australia’s childbirth intervention rates – for induction or augmentation of labour, episiotomy (cutting the tissue between the vaginal opening and the anus) and caesarean section – are comparatively high.

One in ten women report disrespectful or abusive care in childbirth and some decide to make different choices for future births.

Read more:
More than 6,000 women told us what they wanted for their next pregnancy and birth. Here’s what they said

Lack of options for a natural birth and birth choices such as home birth or birth centre birth also played a major role in women’s decision to free birth.

Publicly funded home birth programs have very strict criteria around who can be accepted into the program, excluding many women.

In other countries such as the United Kingdom, Netherlands and New Zealand, publicly funded home births are easier to access.

Only around 200 midwives provide private midwifery services nationally. Private midwives are yet to obtain insurance for home births, which means they are risking their livelihoods if something goes wrong and they are sued.

The cost of a home birth with a private midwife is not covered by Medicare and only some health funds rebate some of the cost. This means women can be out of pocket A$6-8,000.

Access to home birth is an even greater issue in rural and remote Australia.

How to make mainstream care more inclusive

Many women feel constrained by their birth choices in Australia. After years of research and listening to thousands of women, it’s clear more can be done to reduce the desire to free birth.

As my co-authors and I outline in our book, Birthing Outside the System: The Canary in the Coal Mine, this can be achieved by:

• making respectful care a reality so women aren’t traumatised and alienated by maternity care and want to engage with it

• supporting midwifery care. Women are seeking more physiological and social ways of birthing, minimising birth interventions, and midwives are the experts in this space

• supporting women’s access to their chosen place of birth and model of care and not limiting choice with high out-of-pocket expenses

• providing more flexible, acceptable options for women experiencing risk factors during pregnancy and/or birth, such as having a previous caesarean birth, having twins or having a baby in breech position. Women experiencing these complications experience pressure to have a caesarean section

• getting the framework right with policies, guidelines, education, research, regulation and professional leadership.

Ensuring women’s rights and choices are informed and respected means they’re less likely to feel they’re left with no other option.

Hannah Dahlen receives funding from NHMRC, ARC and MRFF

– ref. ‘Free birthing’ and planned home births might sound similar but the risks are very different – https://theconversation.com/free-birthing-and-planned-home-births-might-sound-similar-but-the-risks-are-very-different-223852

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chiara Palmieri, Professor, The University of Queensland

This week, disturbing news emerged about mulch containing asbestos in parks, schools and homes across New South Wales (and possibly Canberra). So far, the discussion has focused on the risks to human health.

But the incidents have prompted me to worry about the effects on dogs. Dogs love to sniff, dig, lick and roll on the ground. That means dogs in the vicinity of the mulch may have been exposed to asbestos.

I research the environmental causes of cancer in animals. Animal exposure to asbestos is deeply worrying. Long-term exposure, even to low doses, can cause a type of cancer called mesothelioma. The disease also affects humans.

Here, I outline the risks of asbestos exposure in dogs, and what to do if you’re concerned.

Read more:
Asbestos in mulch? Here’s the risk if you’ve been exposed

What do we know about mesothelioma in dogs?

Mesothelioma is an aggressive cancer that affects both animals and humans. It’s typically concentrated in the respiratory tract, but can affect all cells lining body cavities.

The illness is rare in dogs, causing less than 1% of all canine tumours. But it takes years to develop, by which time successful treatment is difficult.

Symptoms in dogs include difficulty breathing, enlarged abdomen and muffled heartbeat. A dog may cough, become lethargic, lose its appetite and become depressed.

In dogs, the incubation time – the period when the cancer is developing, is less than eight years, compared with more than 20 years in humans. So studying cancer in pet dogs can provide important information about similar cancers that might also affect humans.

Dogs can be exposed to asbestos in the same way as humans – for example, during home renovation projects. People can wear protective gear, but animals cannot. Dogs also tend to lick things, which means they may ingest asbestos fibres as well as breathe them in.

Asbestos is more dangerous when it is “friable” or easily crumbled and broken up into smaller pieces, releasing fibres into the air.

One study from the 1980s showed dogs could be exposed to asbestos, through “secondary contact” or the actions of someone else. This may occur, for example, if a dog inhaled asbestos fibres from the clothes of its owner.

So during house renovations, pets may need to stay mostly outside, or at someone else’s house or a boarding kennel.

What about the mulch issue?

At latest count, 47 sites in NSW have tested positive for asbestos in mulch. In the Australian Capital Territory, environment officials are investigating potentially contaminated “cottage mulch” sold to 24 companies and 27 addresses in and around Canberra.

In all but one Sydney case, the asbestos was considered lower-risk as it was mixed with cement or other hard bonding materials. However, “non-friable” or “bonded” asbestos can become friable if damaged or old. Then, asbestos can be released into the air.

The more dangerous friable asbestos was found at a popular public park in Glebe. This is concerning.

The risk of an animal developing cancer is influenced by duration of exposure and the extent of contamination. We don’t know what level of exposure is required to develop mesothelioma in dogs. But in humans, there is no known safe asbestos exposure level.

What to do if you’re concerned

Mesothelioma can progress rapidly in both dogs and humans. Early diagnosis increases the chance of survival.

If you think your dog has been exposed to asbestos, take it to see a vet. The vet may perform an x-ray to check the dog’s lungs and/or abdomen and windpipe. If damage is present, a vet would take samples of tissue and fluids from the thorax or abdomen, for further examination.

So what happens if a dog is diagnosed with mesothelioma?

In some cases, the cancer will be so far progressed that treatment is not an option. In that case, all effort should be made to ensure the dog is as comfortable as possible.

If it’s not too late to start treatment, dogs can undergo chemotherapy, usually in the form of injections. One study suggests chemotherapy increases a dog’s chance of survival.

The duration of treatment and side effects of chemotherapy vary depending on the severity of the dog’s case. Deciding whether or not to proceed with chemotherapy can be difficult and requires weighing up the costs and likely benefits. It is expensive, but many dogs cope remarkably well and rarely lose their hair.

A wake-up call

Cancer in pets doesn’t always develop by chance. It can be caused by the air they breathe, the soil they dig in and the water they drink.

The case of asbestos-contaminated mulch should be a wake-up call for regulators and industry. But it should also remind pet owners to carefully consider the substances their animals might be exposed to, both inside and outside the home.

Gathering data on canine exposure to environmental hazards is crucial to understanding the origin of spontaneous cancers. We’re about to launch a national survey on the topic. If you are interested in participating, please get in touch with me and I will share the survey link as soon as it becomes available.

Read more:
Why does my dog eat grass? And when is it not safe for them?

Chiara Palmieri receives funding from philanthropic donations, ARDC, Perpetual trust, canine research foundation, UQ internal grant schemes, MLA, Agrifutures.

– ref. Did your dog dig in asbestos-laden mulch? Here are the risks – and what to do next – https://theconversation.com/did-your-dog-dig-in-asbestos-laden-mulch-here-are-the-risks-and-what-to-do-next-223862

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Layton, Visiting Fellow, Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith University

Australia’s naval surface combatant fleet is in trouble. The eight Anzac frigates are worn out after three decades of Middle Eastern adventures and hard to crew. The Anzac’s replacements, the much-criticised Hunter Class frigates, are late – the first will not enter service until 2032 or so.

The project’s cost has also stunningly risen from A$35 billion in 2018 to $45 billion a couple of years ago to now $65 billion, even before actual ship construction starts.

Adding to the problems, the Navy now dislikes its 12 new offshore patrol vessels (OPVs) currently being built; this seemingly simple project is also late, costly ($3.7 billion overall) and a “project of concern”.

Meanwhile, the Navy’s three brand new Hobart Class destroyers surprisingly need major, costly upgrades that will take two to three years each. With luck, all three will be back in service by 2032.

These numbers are important as the Navy needs three ships in service to reliably maintain one ship deployed on distant operations for an extended period. Across most of the next decade, our current naval surface warship fleet will be able to dependably deploy only two, maybe three, warships simultaneously for extended periods. This is high-input cost for low-output usage.

A consultant-driven solution

That’s the problem. A review undertaken by highly paid, external consultants, led by a retired US Navy admiral, has now provided the solution.

The review released today recommends keeping the three Hobart Class destroyers and six of the aged ANZAC frigates, building only six Hunter Class frigates and stopping the OPV program immediately at six ships.

The big surprise was the recommendation the Navy acquire at least seven – and “optimally” 11 – new general purpose frigates and six large optionally crewed surface vessels (LOSVs). The government agreed with both recommendations.

The new frigates will be a similar size to the Anzacs and effectively a half-size Hunter. Called “Tier 2” ships, they will be designed for anti-submarine warfare and used to secure seaborne trade routes, Australia’s northern maritime approaches and to escort the Navy’s amphibious ships.

They will have an air and missile defence capability and carry several anti-ship and land-attack missiles. Notably, the first three frigates will be built overseas – this will likely draw criticism.

The LOSVs will increase the Navy’s long-range strike capacity and appear to be similar to the US Navy’s planned large uncrewed surface vessels, which will enter service late this decade.

These vessels will mostly operate without a crew, though they may have a small crew embarked for short periods, such as when entering and leaving port or refuelling at sea. The LOSVs are expected to be lower-cost, long-endurance vessels able to carry anti-ship and land-attack missiles.

The review glosses over the serious inability of crewing the current 11-ship surface warship Navy, let alone a 26-vessel one. The Navy is already about 900 people short, equivalent to more than three Anzac ship crews, as it struggles to meet its recruitment goals.

The Department of Defence, however, considers the problem more one of retention than recruitment and is taking steps to slow the personnel loss rate, but it has much ground to make up before it can grow into a much larger force.

The review merely recognised the challenge and simply hoped for the best.

Read more:
The much-anticipated defence review is here. So what does it say, and what does it mean for Australia?

Implications of the review

First, the good news. Much of the money for the new ships will be spent in Australia – not just on sheet metal hull construction, but also on electronics.

For example, the future of the world-leading radar technology company recently purchased by the federal government, appears secure.

There are definite benefits in both creating a more skilled Australian workforce and sustaining a sovereign, Australian naval shipbuilding industry. Critics will correctly argue it’s more expensive than buying from overseas, but given tax claw-backs, maybe not that much.

Even so, the cost-benefit analysis will be hard to calculate – the decision over whether it’s good value for money needs to be a judgement call, not an analysis based on mathematics.

Second, the Albanese government came to office calling for much better “impactful projection” – that is, the ability to apply strategically meaningful military power at great distance from Australia’s shores using missiles.

The new frigates, however, will only carry some additional missiles – not many. As such, the government seems to have changed its earlier intentions and will instead focus more on the submarine threat to Australia’s trade routes.

The only nod to “impactful projection” in the review today is the building of six new LOSVs, each of which will be able to carry 32 missiles to sea. (One LOSV working with a Hobart Class frigate, however, will have around 88 missiles.)

Critics will point to the fact this is fewer than a single US Navy Arleigh Burke destroyer, which carries 96 missiles, and its larger Chinese counterpart, which carries 128.

Read more:
Australia can no longer afford to ignore Russia’s expanding naval power in the Pacific

Third, the review does not call for renewing the Navy’s ageing Anzac flotilla quickly enough. Warship shortages will persist well into the next decade. This is bad news for the short term.

And lastly, the Navy will now have three major ship and submarine projects underway. The new plan to acquire an additional flotilla of frigates will take considerable time, soak up the country’s scarce ship-building workforce and be remarkably costly.

This will adversely impact the Navy operationally and the rest of the Department of Defence, Army and Air Force. As a result, we can likely expect cuts to the Army in the forthcoming budget.

Overall, the review is good for jobs in Adelaide and Perth and will make the Navy significantly larger over the long term. It will also partly placate some government critics who want to buy ships overseas, arguing this will mean faster delivery, and those who believe the government needs “new money” added to currently planned defence budgets.

But the true cost impacts of the reform plan must await the budget. The plan will also take a long time to implement and has ignored the Navy’s chronic shortage of skilled personnel, which is surely most unwise.

Peter Layton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The government has unveiled its Navy of the future. Will it solve our current problems – or just create new ones? – https://theconversation.com/the-government-has-unveiled-its-navy-of-the-future-will-it-solve-our-current-problems-or-just-create-new-ones-223846

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Dobson, Professor and Dean of Education and the Arts, CQUniversity Australia

Do you remember what it was like to discover the magic of a city for the first time? Do you remember the noises, smells, flashing lights and pulsating crowds? Or do you mostly remember cities through the screen of your phone?

In 1967, French philosopher and filmmaker Guy Debord publicised the need to move away from living our lives as bystanders continually tempted by the power of images. Today, we might see this in a young person flicking from one TikTok to the next – echoing the hold images have on us. But adults aren’t adverse to this window-shopping experience, either.

Debord notes we have a tendency to observe rather than engage. And this is to our detriment. Continually topping-up our image consumption leaves no space for the unplanned – the reveries to break the pattern of an ordered life.

Debord was a member of a group called the Situationist International, dedicated to new ways we could reflect upon and experience our cities. Active for about 15 years, they believed we should experience our cities as an act of resistance, in direct opposition to the (profit-motivated) capitalistic structures that demand our attention and productivity every waking hour.

More than 50 years since the group dissolved, the Situationists’ philosophy points us to a continued need to attune ourselves – through our thoughts and senses – to the world we live in. We might consider them as early eco-warriors. And through better understanding their philosophy, we can develop a new relationship with our cities today.

Understanding the ‘situation’

The Situationist International movement was formed in 1957 in Cosio di Arroscia, Italy, and became active in several European countries. It brought together radical artists inspired by spontaneity, experimentalism, intellectualism, protest and hedonism. Central figures included Danish artist Asger Jorn, French novelist Michèle Bernstein and Italian musician and composer Walter Olmo.

The Situationists were driven by a libertarian form of Marxism that resisted mass consumerism. One of the group’s early terms was “unitary urbanism”, which sought to join avant-garde art with the critique of mass production and technology. They rejected “urbanism’s” conventional emphasis on function, and instead thought about art and the environment as inexorably interrelated.

By rebelling against the invasiveness of consumption, the Situationists proposed a turn towards artistically-inspired individuality and creativity.

Think on your own two feet

According to the 1960 Situationist Manifesto we are all to be artists of our own “situations”, crafting independent identities as we stand on our own two feet. They believed this could be achieved, in part, through “psychogeography”: the idea that geographical locations exert a unique psychological effect on us.

For instance, when you walk down a street, the architecture around you may be deliberately designed to encourage a certain kind of experience. Crossing a vibrant city square on a sunny morning evokes joy and a feeling of connection with others. There’s also usually a public event taking place.

The Situationists valued drift, or dérive in French. This alludes to unplanned movement through a landscape during journeys on foot. By drifting aimlessly, we unintentionally redefine the traditional rules imposed by private or public land owners and property developers. We make ourselves open to the new unexpected and, in doing so, are liberated from the shackles of everyday routine.

In our research, my colleagues and I consider cities as places in which “getting lost” means exposing yourself to discovering the new and taken-for-granted.

Forge your own path

By understanding the Situationists – by looking away from our phones and allowing ourselves to get lost – we can rediscover our cities. We can see them for what they are beneath the blankets of posters, billboards and advertisements. How might we take back the image and make it work for us?

The practise of geo-tagging images on social media, and sharing our location with others, could be considered close to the spirit of the Situationists. Although it’s often met with claims of over-fuelling tourism (especially regarding idyllic or otherwise protected sites), geo-tagging could inspire us to actively seek out new places through visiting the source of an image.

This could lead to culturally respectful engagement, and new-found respect for the rights of traditional custodians as we experience their lands in real life, rather than just through images on our phones.

Then there are uniquely personal and anarchistic forms of resistance, wherein we can learn about the world around us by interweaving ourselves with our histories. In doing so we offer a new meaning to a historical message, and a new purpose. The Situationists called this process détournement, or hijacking.

For instance, from my grandfather I inherited a biscuit tin of black and white photographs I believe were taken in the 1960s. They showed images of parks and wildlife, perhaps even of the same park, and cityscapes of London with people, streets and buildings.

I have spent many hours wandering the London streets tracking down the exact places these images were snapped. I was juxtaposing past with present, and experiencing both continuity and change in the dialogues I had with my grandfather. In this way, I used images to augment (rather than replace) my lived experience of the material world.

Urban art installations can also be examples of detournment as they make us re-think everyday conceptions. Forgotten Songs by Michael Hill is one such example. A canopy of empty birdcages commemorates the songs of 50 different birds once heard in central Sydney, but which are now lost due to habitat removal as a result of urban development.

There are also a number of groups, often with a strong environmental or civic rights focus, that partake in detournment. Reclaim the Streets is a movement with a long history in Australia. The group advocates for communities having ownership of and agency within public spaces. They may, for instance, “invade” a highway to throw a “road rave” as an act of reclamation.

As French avant-garde philosopher Gaston Bachelard might have put it, when we’re bombarded by images there is no space left to daydream. We lose the opportunity to explore and question the world capitalism serves us through images.

Perhaps now is a good time to set down the phone and follow in the Situationists’ footsteps.

Read more:
Do you want size with that? The McMansion malaise

Stephen Dobson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The art of ‘getting lost’: how re-discovering your city can be an antidote to capitalism – https://theconversation.com/the-art-of-getting-lost-how-re-discovering-your-city-can-be-an-antidote-to-capitalism-221606

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vahid Pooryousef, PhD candidate in Human Computer Interaction, Monash University

Late last week, OpenAI announced a new generative AI system named Sora, which produces short videos from text prompts. While Sora is not yet available to the public, the high quality of the sample outputs published so far has provoked both excited and concerned reactions.

The sample videos published by OpenAI, which the company says were created directly by Sora without modification, show outputs from prompts like “photorealistic closeup video of two pirate ships battling each other as they sail inside a cup of coffee” and “historical footage of California during the gold rush”.

At first glance, it is often hard to tell they are generated by AI, due to the high quality of the videos, textures, dynamics of scenes, camera movements, and a good level of consistency.

OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman also posted some videos to X (formerly Twitter) generated in response to user-suggested prompts, to demonstrate Sora’s capabilities.

How does Sora work?

Sora combines features of text and image generating tools in what is called a “diffusion transformer model”.

Transformers are a type of neural network first introduced by Google in 2017. They are best known for their use in large language models such as ChatGPT and Google Gemini.

Diffusion models, on the other hand, are the foundation of many AI image generators. They work by starting with random noise and iterating towards a “clean” image that fits an input prompt.

A video can be made from a sequence of such images. However, in a video, coherence and consistency between frames are essential.

Sora uses the transformer architecture to handle how frames relate to one another. While transformers were initially designed to find patterns in tokens representing text, Sora instead uses tokens representing small patches of space and time.

Leading the pack

Sora is not the first text-to-video model. Earlier models include Emu by Meta, Gen-2 by Runway, Stable Video Diffusion by Stability AI, and recently Lumiere by Google.

Lumiere, released just a few weeks ago, claimed to produce better video than its predecessors. But Sora appears to be more powerful than Lumiere in at least some respects.

Sora can generate videos with a resolution of up to 1920 × 1080 pixels, and in a variety of aspect ratios, while Lumiere is limited to 512 × 512 pixels. Lumiere’s videos are around 5 seconds long, while Sora makes videos up to 60 seconds.

Lumiere cannot make videos composed of multiple shots, while Sora can. Sora, like other models, is also reportedly capable of video-editing tasks such as creating videos from images or other videos, combining elements from different videos, and extending videos in time.

Both models generate broadly realistic videos, but may suffer from hallucinations. Lumiere’s videos may be more easily recognised as AI-generated. Sora’s videos look more dynamic, having more interactions between elements.

However, in many of the example videos inconsistencies become apparent on close inspection.

Promising applications

Video content is currently produced either by filming the real world or by using special effects, both of which can be costly and time consuming. If Sora becomes available at a reasonable price, people may start using it as a prototyping software to visualise ideas at a much lower cost.

Based on what we know of Sora’s capabilities it could even be used to create short videos for some applications in entertainment, advertising and education.

OpenAI’s technical paper about Sora is titled “Video generation models as world simulators”. The paper argues that bigger versions of video generators like Sora may be “capable simulators of the physical and digital world, and the objects, animals and people that live within them”.

If this is correct, future versions may have scientific applications for physical, chemical, and even societal experiments. For example, one might be able to test the impact of tsunamis of different sizes on different kinds of infrastructure – and on the physical and mental health of the people nearby.

Achieving this level of simulation is highly challenging, and some experts say a system like Sora is fundamentally incapable of doing it.

A complete simulator would need to calculate physical and chemical reactions at the most detailed levels of the universe. However, simulating a rough approximation of the world and making realistic videos to human eyes might be within reach in the coming years.

Risks and ethical concerns

The main concerns around tools like Sora revolve around their societal and ethical impact. In a world already plagued by disinformation, tools like Sora may make things worse.

It’s easy to see how the ability to generate realistic video of any scene you can describe could be used to spread convincing fake news or throw doubt on real footage. It may endanger public health measures, be used to influence elections, or even burden the justice system with potential fake evidence.

Read more:
Whether of politicians, pop stars or teenage girls, sexualised deepfakes are on the rise. They hold a mirror to our sexist world

Video generators may also enable direct threats to targeted individuals, via deepfakes – particularly pornographic ones. These may have terrible repercussions on the lives of the affected individuals and their families.

Beyond these concerns, there are also questions of copyright and intellectual property. Generative AI tools require vast amounts of data for training, and OpenAI has not revealed where Sora’s training data came from.

Large language models and image generators have also been criticised for this reason. In the United States, a group of famous authors have sued OpenAI over a potential misuse of their materials. The case argues that large language models and the companies who use them are stealing the authors’ work to create new content.

Read more:
Two authors are suing OpenAI for training ChatGPT with their books. Could they win?

It is not the first time in recent memory that technology has run ahead of the law. For instance, the question of the obligations of social media platforms in moderating content has created heated debate in the past couple of years – much of it revolving around Section 230 of the US Code.

While these concerns are real, based on past experience we would not expect them to stop the development of video-generating technology. OpenAI says it is “taking several important safety steps” before making Sora available to the public, including working with experts in “misinformation, hateful content, and bias” and “building tools to help detect misleading content”.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What is Sora? A new generative AI tool could transform video production and amplify disinformation risks – https://theconversation.com/what-is-sora-a-new-generative-ai-tool-could-transform-video-production-and-amplify-disinformation-risks-223850

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Frédérik Saltré, Research Fellow in Ecology for the ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, Flinders University

Australia is home to about one in 12 of the world’s species of animals, birds, plants and insects – between 600,000 and 700,000 species. More than 80% of Australian plants and mammals and just under 50% of our birds are found nowhere else.

But habitat destruction, climate change, and invasive species are wreaking havoc on Earth’s rich biodiversity, and Australia is no exception.

In 2023, the federal government added another 144 plants, animals and ecological communities to the threatened species list – including iconic species such as the pink cockatoo, spiny crayfish and earless dragons.

More and more species stand on the edge of oblivion. That’s just the ones we know enough about to list formally as threatened. Many more are in trouble, especially in the oceans. Change is the new constant. As the world heats up and ecosystems warp, new combinations of species can emerge without an evolutionary connection, creating novel communities.

It is still possible to stop species from dying out. But it will take an unprecedented effort.

Read more:
Explainer: what is biodiversity and why does it matter?

How species end

The modern extinction crisis is quite recent. Between 1970 and 2018, wildlife populations around the world fell by almost 70%. But the collapse of these populations isn’t equal – Latin America and the Caribbean have lost around 94% of the individuals in wild populations. Africa has lost 65%, Asia-Pacific about 45%, while North America and Europe have lost 45% and Central Asia 33%.

In the 250 years since Europeans arrived, at least 100 unique Australian species have gone extinct. That’s about 6% to 10% of all recorded extinctions worldwide since the year 1500. If we look at mammals alone, we have the worst track record of any country.

Extinction doesn’t happen overnight. An abundant species might be exposed to a new predator such as feral cats. Its population could fall to the point where it is listed as threatened, meaning it has a high chance of becoming extinct in the near future.

If the species can’t adapt and if we do nothing, the species can become critically endangered and decline to a few hundred individuals. If pressure continues, it can go extinct in the wild. And if zoos can’t establish breeding populations or we simply don’t know about it, the entire species can wink out of existence.

Tip of the iceberg

Australia’s threatened species list is useful, because it helps us prioritise which species to help. But it does not show the true number of species in danger. There are well known gaps, such as many invertebrates that have gone extinct unnoticed because of their secretive nature and small size.

The list likely misses other lesser-known or hard to research groups such as microorganisms, hard to find marine species, snakes and lizards, and rare plants.

Neither does the list take into account species that depend on each other, such as wasps relying on one species to parasitise and pollinators specialising on a few types of flowers. Yet these complex interactions are essential to healthy functioning of ecosystems.

To list a species as threatened takes work. By the time we have catalogued all species on Earth – estimated to take 100–200 years at current discovery rates – experts estimate most species will have already gone extinct.

Read more:
Worried about Earth’s future? Well, the outlook is worse than even scientists can grasp

Can species come back?

For decades, conservationists have used species recovery programs to try and bring threatened species back from the brink. You need a combination of approaches – there’s no point breeding thousands of endangered woylies if their habitat has been replaced with farmland or plantation.

One measure with good results is to use policy measures to cut forest loss and other habitat destruction. Lost habitat is the main reason more than 85% of our threatened species are on the list in the first place. Invasive species and diseases can worsen damage from habitat loss – or act alone.

Extinction is not inevitable. Between 2000 to 2022, we saw 29 species recover to the point they could be taken off the threatened list.

But the road to recovery is long, complicated, and far from assured for most of our worst-affected species.

Novel ecosystems and climate change

Each species has a climate it prefers and can survive in. But the magnitude of expected future climate change is likely to produce climates without precedent in many regions. We could see the creation of entirely new biological communities and environments, as has happened before.

Read more:
What is a ‘mass extinction’ and are we in one now?

The best-known novel communities emerged at high latitudes mostly between 17,000 and 12,000 years ago. Here, for instance, spruce and ash trees in North America grew side by side – even though they now live far apart – and pines were less common than today.

Unfortunately, the emergence of novel communities often led to an increase in species extinctions.

But the emergence of new types of ecosystems doesn’t mean all species will suffer. For instance, novel habitats in Melbourne’s suburbs have led to a surge in southern brown bandicoots, who find strips of native and introduced plants along roads, canals and railways to their liking.

New ecosystems can sometimes harbour more species and actually be more resilient due to the variety of species traits, behaviours, and genetic diversity. But this is not guaranteed.

Managing these new ecosystems will be challenging. We will have to come up with creative ways to handle these changes by adopting Indigenous practices or applying novel solutions such as genetic rescue, mass reforestation and assisted migration to reduce extinction rates.

With unprecedented climates, novel ecosystems, invasive species, and disruptions to the food chain, we can expect more and more species to be added to the threatened list.

Read more:
Climate-driven species on the move are changing (almost) everything

Frédérik Saltré receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Corey J. A. Bradshaw receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. New ecosystems, unprecedented climates: more Australian species than ever are struggling to survive – https://theconversation.com/new-ecosystems-unprecedented-climates-more-australian-species-than-ever-are-struggling-to-survive-222375

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christian Wolf, Associate Professor, Astronomy & Astrophysics, Australian National University

Scientists have no reported evidence of the true conditions in Hell, perhaps because no one has ever returned to tell the tale. Hell has been imagined as a supremely uncomfortable place, hot and hostile to bodily forms of human life.

Thanks to a huge astronomical survey of the entire sky, we have now found what may be the most hellish place in the universe.

In a new paper in Nature Astronomy, we describe a black hole surrounded by the largest and brightest disc of captive matter ever discovered. The object, called J0529-4351, is therefore also the brightest object found so far in the universe.

Supermassive black holes

Astronomers have already found around one million fast-growing supermassive black holes across the universe, the kind that sit at the centres of galaxies and are as massive as millions or billions of Suns.

To grow rapidly, they pull stars and gas clouds out of stable orbits and drag them into a ring of orbiting material called an accretion disc. Once there, very little material escapes; the disc is a mere holding pattern for material that will soon be devoured by the black hole.

The disc is heated by friction as the material in it rubs together. Pack in enough material and the glow of the heat gets so bright that it outshines thousands of galaxies and makes the black hole’s feeding frenzy visible to us on Earth, more than 12 billion light years away.

The fastest-growing black hole in the universe

The accretion disc of J0529-4351 emits light that is 500 trillion times more intense than that of our Sun. Such a staggering amount of energy can only be released if the black hole eats about a Sun worth of material every day.

It must also have a large mass already. Our data indicate J0529-4351 is 15 to 20 billion times the mass of our Sun.

There is no need to be afraid of such black holes. The light from this monster has taken more than 12 billion years to reach us, which means it would have stopped growing long ago.

In the nearby universe, we see that supermassive black holes these days are mostly sleeping giants.

Black holes losing their grip

The age of the black hole feeding frenzy is over because the gas floating around in galaxies has mostly been turned into stars. And after billions of years the stars have sorted themselves into orderly patterns: they are mostly on long, neat orbits around the black holes that sleep in the cores of their galaxies.

Even if a star dove suddenly down towards the black hole, it would most likely carry out a slingshot manoeuvre and escape again in a different direction.

Read more:
Why do black holes twinkle? We studied 5,000 star-eating behemoths to find out

Space probes use slingshot manoeuvres like this to get a boost from Jupiter to access hard-to-reach parts of the Solar System. But imagine if space were more crowded, and our probe ran into one coming the other way: the two would crash together and explode into a cloud of debris that would rapidly fall into Jupiter’s atmosphere.

Such collisions between stars were commonplace in the disorder of the young universe, and black holes were the early beneficiaries of the chaos.

Accretion discs – a no-go zone for space travellers

Accretion discs are gateways to a place whence nothing returns, but they are also profoundly unfriendly to life in themselves. They are like giant storm cells, whose clouds glow at temperatures reaching several tens of thousands of degrees Celsius.

The clouds are moving faster and faster as we get closer to the hole, and speeds can reach 100,000 kilometres per second. They move as far in a second as the Earth moves in an hour.

The disc around J0529-4351 is seven light years across. That is one and a half times the distance from the Sun to its nearest neighbour, Alpha Centauri.

Why only now?

If this is the brightest thing in the universe, why has it only been spotted now? In short, it’s because the universe is full of glowing black holes.

The world’s telescopes produce so much data that astronomers use sophisticated machine learning tools to sift through it all. Machine learning, by its nature, tends to find things that are similar to what has been found before.

This makes machine learning excellent at finding run-of-the-mill accretion discs around black holes – roughly a million have been detected so far – but not so good at spotting rare outliers like J0529-4351. In 2015, a Chinese team almost missed a remarkably fast-growing black hole picked out by an algorithm because it seemed too extreme to be real.

Read more:
Astronomers see ancient galaxies flickering in slow motion due to expanding space

In our recent work, we were aiming to find all the most extreme objects, the most luminous and most rapidly growing black holes, so we avoided using machine learning tools that were guided by too much prior knowledge. Instead we used more old-fashioned methods to search through new data covering the entire sky, with excellent results.

Our work also depended on Australia’s current 10-year partnership with the European Southern Observatory, an organisation funded by several European countries with a huge array of astronomical facilities.

Christian Wolf has received funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. The brightest object in the universe is a black hole that eats a star a day – https://theconversation.com/the-brightest-object-in-the-universe-is-a-black-hole-that-eats-a-star-a-day-222612

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Holly Cullen, Adjunct professor, The University of Western Australia

On February 20 and 21, Julian Assange will ask the High Court of England and Wales to reverse a decision from June last year allowing the United Kingdom to extradite him to the United States.

There he faces multiple counts of computer misuse and espionage stemming from his work with WikiLeaks, publishing sensitive US government documents provided by Chelsea Manning. The US government has repeatedly claimed that Assange’s actions risked its national security.

This is the final avenue of appeal in the UK, although Stella Assange, Julian’s wife, has indicated he would seek an order from the European Court of Human Rights if he loses the application for appeal. The European Court, an international court that hears cases under the European Convention on Human Rights, can issue orders that are binding on convention member states. In 2022, an order from the court stopped the UK sending asylum seekers to Rwanda pending a full review of the relevant legislation.

The extradition process has been running for nearly five years. Over such a long time, it’s easy to lose track of the sequence of events that led to this. Here’s how we got here, and what might happen next.

Read more:
View from The Hill: Australia’s bid for Julian Assange’s freedom presents formidable problems for Joe Biden

Years-long extradition attempt

From 2012 until May 2019, Assange resided in the Ecuadorian embassy in London after breaching bail on unrelated charges. While he remained in the embassy, the police could not arrest him without the permission of the Ecuadorian government.

In 2019, Ecuador allowed Assange’s arrest. He was then convicted of breaching bail conditions, and imprisoned in Belmarsh Prison, where he’s remained during the extradition proceedings. Shortly after his arrest, the United States laid charges against Assange and requested his extradition from the United Kingdom.

Assange immediately challenged the extradition request. After delays due to COVID, in January 2021, the District Court decided the extradition could not proceed because it would be “oppressive” to Assange.

The ruling was based on the likely conditions that Assange would face in an American prison and the high risk that he would attempt suicide. The court rejected all other arguments against extradition.

The American government appealed the District Court decision. It provided assurances on prison conditions for Assange to overcome the finding that the extradition would be oppressive. Those assurances led to the High Court overturning the order stopping extradition. Then the Supreme Court (the UK’s top court) refused Assange’s request to appeal that ruling.

Read more:
A rocky diplomatic road: Julian Assange’s hopes of avoiding extradition take a blow as US pushes back

The extradition request then passed to the home secretary, who approved it. Assange appealed the home secretary’s decision, which a single judge of the High Court rejected in June 2023.

This appeal is against that most recent ruling and will be heard by a two-judge bench. These judges will only decide whether Assange has grounds for appeal. If they decide in his favour, the court will schedule a full hearing of the merits of the appeal. That hearing would come at the cost of further delay in the resolution of his case.

Growing political support

Parallel to the legal challenges, Assange’s supporters have led a political campaign to stop the prosecution and the extradition. One goal of the campaign has been to persuade the Australian government to argue Assange’s case with the American government.

Cross-party support from individual parliamentarians has steadily grown, led by independent MP Andrew Wilkie. Over the past two years, the government, including the foreign minister and the prime minister, have made stronger and clearer statements that the prosecution should end.

On February 14, Wilkie proposed a motion in support of Assange, seconded by Labor MP Josh Wilson. The house was asked to “underline the importance of the UK and USA bringing the matter to a close so that Mr Assange can return home to his family in Australia.” It was passed.

In addition, Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus confirmed he had recently raised the Assange prosecution with his American counterpart, who has the authority to end it.

What will Assange’s team argue?

For the High Court appeal, it is expected Assange’s legal team will once again argue the extradition would be oppressive and that the American assurances are inadequate. A recent statement by Alice Edwards, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on Torture, supports their argument that extradition could lead to treatment “amounting to torture or other forms of ill-treatment or punishment”. She rejected the adequacy of American assurances, saying:

They are not legally binding, are limited in their scope, and the person the assurances aim to protect may have no recourse if they are violated.

The argument that extradition would be oppressive remains the strongest ground for appeal. However, it is likely Assange’s lawyers will also repeat some of the arguments which were unsuccessful in the District Court proceedings.

One argument is that the charges against Assange, particularly the espionage charges, are political offences. The United States–United Kingdom extradition treaty does not allow either state to extradite for political offences.

Read more:
Explainer: what charges does Julian Assange face, and what’s likely to happen next?

Assange is also likely to re-run the argument that his leaks of classified documents were exercises of his right to freedom of expression under the European Convention on Human Rights. To date, the European Court of Human Rights has never found that an extradition request violates freedom of expression. For the High Court to do so would be an innovative ruling.

The High Court will hear two days of legal argument and might not give its judgement immediately, but it will probably be delivered soon after the hearing. Whatever the decision, Assange’s supporters will continue their political campaign, supported by the Australian government, to stop the prosecution.

Holly Cullen has been a volunteer for the Australian Labor Party, including for Josh Wilson, MP.

– ref. After years of avoiding extradition, Julian Assange’s appeal is likely his last chance. Here’s how it might unfold (and how we got here) – https://theconversation.com/after-years-of-avoiding-extradition-julian-assanges-appeal-is-likely-his-last-chance-heres-how-it-might-unfold-and-how-we-got-here-221217

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert G. Patman, Professor of International Relations, University of Otago

Despite inheriting positive bilateral ties with Australia and the US, New Zealand’s coalition government has indicated it wants an even closer alignment with traditional allies.

In what has been described as “the most challenging strategic environment for decades”, Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Defence Minister Judith Collins held discussions with their Australian counterparts in Melbourne this month.

This was the first time in trans-Tasman relations that ministers in these portfolios have met in such a “two-on-two” format.

A statement issued after the talks said “the two countries share close bonds of history and geography, liberal democratic values, regional and global interests and strategic outlook”.

The statement also agreed the AUKUS security partnership “made a positive contribution toward maintaining peace, security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific”.

These words may have signalled a potentially momentous break with New Zealand’s previous foreign policy.

A distinctive worldview

There has long been bipartisan acknowledgement that Australia is New Zealand’s closest and most important ally. But there appeared to be little recognition at the meeting that New Zealand’s evolving sense of national identity – anchored in the Pacific – has generated a distinctive worldview.

For much of the post-war era, the New Zealand-Australian alliance has been one of unity rather than uniformity. It has accommodated relatively independent New Zealand stances on non-nuclear security, opposition to the illegal US invasion of Iraq in 2003, and relations with China.

It may be a stretch to say the alliance promoted a principled, independent New Zealand foreign policy, but it has certainly not proved to be an impediment.

However, those days may now be coming to an end. A tighter alignment with Australia – given Canberra’s own very close relationship with Washington – could make New Zealand itself more reliant on US strategic input.

Read more:
The defence dilemma facing NZ’s next government: stay independent or join ‘pillar 2’ of AUKUS?

China not the only threat

Close ties with Australia do not mean it is necessarily in New Zealand’s strategic interests to join AUKUS.

Established in 2021, the trilateral security pact between Australia, the US and UK purports to defend “a shared commitment to the international rules-based order” in the Indo-Pacific region.

But it is clearly intended to counter the challenge of China’s assertiveness, and consists of two “pillars”.

Read more:
NZ’s first national security strategy signals a ‘turning point’ and the end of old certainties

Pillar one involves Australia receiving eight to ten nuclear-powered submarines from the US and UK over the next three decades. New Zealand is now actively exploring whether to join pillar two, envisaging the sharing of cutting-edge defence technologies.

According to Collins, New Zealand’s “defence has been absolutely gutted in the last three years and we’ve got to build that back”.

While last year’s national security strategy acknowledged New Zealand’s “stability, security and prosperity” depends critically on an international rules-based order, it is also evident China is not the sole threat to this order.

Gaza and Ukraine

Firstly, there is the unconditional support of the US and UK for the Israeli government’s disproportionate and relentless military response in Gaza to the October 7 terrorist attacks.

An estimated 28,000 Palestinians have been killed, prompting the International Court of Justice to order Israel to prevent acts of genocide there.

New Zealand has voted twice in the UN General Assembly for an immediate humanitarian truce or ceasefire. It also recently joined Australia and Canada in calling for a ceasefire before any ground assault on Rafah.

Read more:
From the Middle East to the South China Sea: NZ’s new government inherits a defence dilemma

But the government has nevertheless overlooked US complicity (through military aid and use of its Security Council veto) in the Gaza catastrophe. That complicity has allowed Iran and China to strategically capitalise on global anger over the plight of the Palestinians.

As well, Wellington has accepted a US request to send a Defence Force team to the Red Sea to help repel Houthi attacks on civilian shipping.

New Zealand and Australia have a huge stake in reversing the illegal and brutal Russian attempt to annex parts of Ukraine. The Biden administration, however, has struggled since late 2023 to sustain vital military aid to Kyiv.

Serious opposition within the US Congress from some members of the Republican party raises questions for its allies – including its AUKUS partners – about US commitment to the international rules order.

Read more:
The ‘number 8 wire’ days for NZ’s defence force are over – new priorities will demand bigger budgets

Would AUKUS help or hinder NZ interests?

There is also a concern among Pacific Island and ASEAN states that New Zealand’s possible participation in AUKUS pillar two could heighten great power rivalry.

Elevating a view that only the US and its Anglosphere partners can counter Chinese influence in the vast region carries several risks.

It may undercut regional leadership, and de-emphasise local national security concerns such as climate change. It might also hurt New Zealand’s diplomatic standing as a Pacific nation projecting an independent, rules-based, non-nuclear foreign policy that is distinguishable from its traditional allies.

Read more:
Ukraine war: what the US public thinks about giving military and other aid

The current security situation faces multiple challenges – including US exceptionalism, China’s assertiveness, Russian expansionism and UN Security Council dysfunction.

The key question is whether access to the start-of-the-art defence technologies of AUKUS pillar two will help address or aggravate these challenges for a relatively small actor like New Zealand.

On balance, and mindful that AUKUS does not have a monopoly over new defence technologies, there is little evidence that participation in pillar two will significantly advance New Zealand’s distinctive interests and values in the Indo-Pacific region or elsewhere.

And it should certainly not be regarded as a quick fix for under-investment in the country’s defence sector by governments over many years.

Robert G. Patman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Moving closer to Australia is in New Zealand’s strategic interest – joining AUKUS is not – https://theconversation.com/moving-closer-to-australia-is-in-new-zealands-strategic-interest-joining-aukus-is-not-223843

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Wallwork, Post-doctoral Researcher, University of South Australia

Back pain is common. One in thirteen people have it right now and worldwide a staggering 619 million people will have it this year.

Chronic pain, of which back pain is the most common, is the world’s most disabling health problem. Its economic impact dwarfs other health conditions.

If you get back pain, how long will it take to go away? We scoured the scientific literature to find out. We found data on almost 20,000 people, from 95 different studies and split them into three groups:

• acute – those with back pain that started less than six weeks ago
• subacute – where it started between six and 12 weeks ago
• chronic – where it started between three months and one year ago.

We found 70%–95% of people with acute back pain were likely to recover within six months. This dropped to 40%–70% for subacute back pain and to 12%–16% for chronic back pain.

Clinical guidelines point to graded return to activity and pain education under the guidance of a health professional as the best ways to promote recovery. Yet these effective interventions are underfunded and hard to access.

Read more:
What is cognitive functional therapy? How can it reduce low back pain and get you moving?

More pain doesn’t mean a more serious injury

Most acute back pain episodes are not caused by serious injury or disease.

There are rare exceptions, which is why it’s wise to see your doctor or physio, who can check for signs and symptoms that warrant further investigation. But unless you have been in a significant accident or sustained a large blow, you are unlikely to have caused much damage to your spine.

Even very minor back injuries can be brutally painful. This is, in part, because of how we are made. If you think of your spinal cord as a very precious asset (which it is), worthy of great protection (which it is), a bit like the crown jewels, then what would be the best way to keep it safe? Lots of protection and a highly sensitive alarm system.

The spinal cord is protected by strong bones, thick ligaments, powerful muscles and a highly effective alarm system (your nervous system). This alarm system can trigger pain that is so unpleasant that you cannot possibly think of, let alone do, anything other than seek care or avoid movement.

The messy truth is that when pain persists, the pain system becomes more sensitive, so a widening array of things contribute to pain. This pain system hypersensitivity is a result of neuroplasticity – your nervous system is becoming better at making pain.

Read more:
Explainer: what is pain and what is happening when we feel it?

Reduce your chance of lasting pain

Whether or not your pain resolves is not determined by the extent of injury to your back. We don’t know all the factors involved, but we do know there are things that you can do to reduce chronic back pain:

• understand how pain really works. This will involve intentionally learning about modern pain science and care. It will be difficult but rewarding. It will help you work out what you can do to change your pain

• reduce your pain system sensitivity. With guidance, patience and persistence, you can learn how to gradually retrain your pain system back towards normal.

How to reduce your pain sensitivity and learn about pain

Learning about “how pain works” provides the most sustainable improvements in chronic back pain. Programs that combine pain education with graded brain and body exercises (gradual increases in movement) can reduce pain system sensitivity and help you return to the life you want.

These programs have been in development for years, but high-quality clinical trials are now emerging and it’s good news: they show most people with chronic back pain improve and many completely recover.

But most clinicians aren’t equipped to deliver these effective programs – good pain education is not taught in most medical and health training degrees. Many patients still receive ineffective and often risky and expensive treatments, or keep seeking temporary pain relief, hoping for a cure.

When health professionals don’t have adequate pain education training, they can deliver bad pain education, which leaves patients feeling like they’ve just been told it’s all in their head.

Read more:
Opioids don’t relieve acute low back or neck pain – and can result in worse pain, new study finds

Community-driven not-for-profit organisations such as Pain Revolution are training health professionals to be good pain educators and raising awareness among the general public about the modern science of pain and the best treatments. Pain Revolution has partnered with dozens of health services and community agencies to train more than 80 local pain educators and supported them to bring greater understanding and improved care to their colleagues and community.

But a broader system-wide approach, with government, industry and philanthropic support, is needed to expand these programs and fund good pain education. To solve the massive problem of chronic back pain, effective interventions need to be part of standard care, not as a last resort after years of increasing pain, suffering and disability.

Sarah Wallwork receives payments for lectures on pain and rehabilitation. Sarah was funded by an NHMRC Investigator Grant awarded to GL Moseley (ID 1178444).

Lorimer Moseley has received support from: Reality Health, ConnectHealth UK, Institutes of Health California, AIA Australia, Workers’ Compensation Boards and professional sporting organisations in Australia, Europe, South and North America. Professional and scientific bodies have reimbursed him for travel costs related to presentation of research on pain and pain education at scientific conferences/symposia. He has received speaker fees for lectures on pain, pain education and rehabilitation. He receives royalties for books on pain and pain education. He is non-paid CEO of the non-profit Pain Revolution, an unpaid Director of Painaustralia and an unpaid Director of Australian Pain Solutions Research Alliance.

– ref. How long does back pain last? And how can learning about pain increase the chance of recovery? – https://theconversation.com/how-long-does-back-pain-last-and-how-can-learning-about-pain-increase-the-chance-of-recovery-222513

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marnee Shay, Associate Professor, Principal Research Fellow, The University of Queensland

One of the priorities of the Closing the Gap reporting is that Indigenous cultures and languages are “strong, supported and flourishing”. It also calls for Indigenous students to “achieve their full learning potential”.

These two priorities are listed in totally different sections of the report but they are very much connected.

Schools can play a big role in Indigenous language revitalisation and creating a strong sense of identity and belonging for students, supporting their wellbeing and learning.

Our new research shows how this can be done through co-designing curriculum resources with local communities that privilege local knowledge, strengths, stories and languages.

A repository of language and culture

In 2020 we began to work with the Elders advisory group connected to a local high school on Wakka Wakka Country, which covers a vast area in Queensland’s Burnett region in Queensland. But the communities involved in this project were Cherbourg and Murgon.

This was a co-designed process from the very beginning. This meant we spoke to Elders and the community to identify what they wanted and then worked with them throughout the process.

Talking to Elders, community and school staff, we learned there was a strong desire to have tangible resources about local history and culture that elevated their voices. These could be used by local childcare services and schools, as well as the broader community.

Indigenous authors Anita Heiss and Uncle Boori Monty Pryor delivered a series of workshops with school students and local community members to share their experiences and inspire people to share their stories. We also had local Indigenous researchers working closely with community to support anyone who wanted to contribute a story.

The project culminated in a series of strengths-based stories (emphasising strengths and aspirations) being hosted on the Cherbourg Shire Council website to give the community control of the Binung Ma Na Du (ear, eye, hand and heart) project.

The series includes video stories, written stories, podcasts and bilingual books. For example, the 13 video stories include diverse stories of community members memories of growing up in Cherbourg, overcoming adversity and staying strong in culture. The podcasts continue the theme of storytelling through yarning and understanding the lived experiences of mob from these communities.

All storytellers own the intellectual property of their stories.

Read more:
‘Co-design’ is the latest buzzword in Indigenous education policy. Does it live up to the hype?

All students benefit

We also asked 28 local people (six non-Indigenous school staff and 22 Indigenous school staff and/ or community members) about what they see as the benefits for students when Indigenous knowledges and languages and embedded in school learning.

All participants were clear there are benefits for all students, whether they are Indigenous or non-Indigenous.

For Indigenous students, strengthening identity and building confidence clearly emerged as key strengths.

As Uncle Edward, a Wakka Wakka Elder, said:

[…] it’s about making our children feel proud – not just of themselves, but of their people, of their ancestors. And that language that they take is part of those
old people. And […] and I always say to them, ‘You take that language of the old people, you’re gonna start acting like them old people’. And I think our young people start to do that.

Our respondents noted how non-indigenous students gained greater understanding about cultural differences. Learning language and locally produced stories also helped build relationships between Indigenous and non-indigenous people.

As Lavell, a community member and father, shared:

[…] when I was growing up in high school I did German and it was no use to me as an adult. If they learn Wakka Wakka they learn the language of this place first and they need to learn the language of this place and we need to learn they’re language to come together and live in harmony. We all call Australia home and we need to all respect that.

Lessons from our research

We also asked the group of community members and school practitioners what good co-design looks like in developing local curriculum resources.

They emphasised how collaboration with community needs to be there right at the start and right through to the end of a project. They also stressed that local knowledge and leadership must be incorporated into the final project (so it can’t just be researchers or policymakers making their own findings).

Sarah, a community member and parent shared that:

communities and schools work better together when we acknowledge and value the knowledge holders such as Elders, parents and community.

Read more:
‘Once students knew their identity, they excelled’: how to talk about excellence in Indigenous education

How can other schools develop similar resources?

For schools who want to work with their local communities to enhance local knowledge and language in their curriculum, here are some key tips, based on our research:

• work with Indigenous staff in your school first and foremost to learn about local cultural protocols. If you don’t have any Indigenous staff, your local Elders are the first place to go

• ensure this will be reciprocal. Be clear about what and how you are giving back to the community. For example, you might offering a space for
  regular communication between the school and community (not just a one-off interaction)

• work collaboratively with Elders and community to have visual representations of the traditional owners, local language (for example, signage and greetings) and cultures around the school. This is so these become common knowledge among all students and staff and part of the school’s culture

• when working with Indigenous people in remote Indigenous communities, ensure you have met with the local council in the community. These local councils are elected by community and it is respectful and expected that you engage with local councils

• use strengths-based approaches that privilege Indigenous voices in decision-making processes. This means you start by looking at what is already working well and build from that strength, rather than coming in with a deficit mindset (or looking to “fix” something)

• don’t have fixed deadlines: collaborative work in communities take time. You need to build relationships with people first and then be prepared to work flexibly with them. The funding body gave us 12 months initially to complete the project, but it ended up taking about three and a half years from project planning with community to final completion.

Marnee Shay receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Government and AIATSIS.
Marnee Shay is a member of QATSIETAC with the Department of Education Queensland.

Fred Cobbo receives funding from AIATSIS. Fred Cobbo is an elected Council Member on the Cherbourg Aboriginal Shire Council..

Grace Sarra receives funding from The Australian Research Council and AIATSIS.

Margaret Kettle receives funding from the Queensland Department of Education, AIATSIS, and the Scanlon Foundation.

– ref. ‘It’s about making our children feel proud’: how schools can learn about local Indigenous language and culture – https://theconversation.com/its-about-making-our-children-feel-proud-how-schools-can-learn-about-local-indigenous-language-and-culture-223463

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sascha Samlal, PhD Candidate, The University of Melbourne

With Taylor Swift pulling in over half-a-million audience members on her Australian tour, we’ve been thinking a lot about fans. In this series, our academics dive into fan cultures: how they developed, how they operate, and how they shape the world today.

With Taylor Swift’s highly anticipated The Eras Tour now playing Australia, the behaviours and practices of pop music fangirls are again the spotlight.

From the devastation of missing out on tickets to live performances, the dedicated effort of camping at arenas to see their stars up close, to the ways these fans interact online, fangirls are often shamed within the cultural zeitgeist.

However, this shame is an integral aspect of fandom spaces. Shame can be used in creating shared intimacy between fans and fostering a sense of community, as evidenced in interviews conducted as part of my research.

Drawing on ten interviews with “Directioners” (fans of One Direction) who participated in online fandom communities during their adolescence, the way shame is experienced, perpetuated and internalised by fangirls became clear.

Yet what also emerged in these interviews is how shame simultaneously provides the foundation for these close-knit communities and long-lasting connections.

Pop music, girls and shame

Pop music is often characterised by its popularity with young women, and is perceived to in opposition to rock music and other, more “serious” genres. Rock music represents the authentic, political, intelligent and masculine; pop music therefore is inauthentic, vacuous and feminine.

Fans of more “serious” genres of music might be referred to as “aficionados”, “tastemakers” or “connoisseurs”, permitted to spend thousands of dollars on their rare vinyl collections or engage in online debate about their favourite albums.

One person I spoke to highlighted her otherwise “good” taste by positioning acclaimed musicians – Queen and Elton John – in opposition to One Direction, and to pop music. “I wasn’t necessarily listening to pop music,” she said.

Yet fangirls of pop music are not allowed this same status. It is expected they only like the object of their devotion because they are immature, apolitical, or they desire the (male) pop star.

The condemnation of fangirls is a historically recurring and widespread phenomenon, from Beatlemania to Bieber Fever.

One participant recalled her time at school hiding her status as a One Direction fangirl:

all the boys would make fun of those girls, and I’d join in […] Me and my friends used to [say] ‘One Infection’!

The interests of girls are often demeaned as unserious or tasteless, pervasively understood as mass consumer products that hordes of crazy girls consume mindlessly.

The trope of the “hysterical fangirl” conjures up the image of a hormonally out of control teenage girl consistently duped by the mainstream music industry.

The good vs the hysterical

This cultural framing of fangirls seeps into fandom spaces.

Fangirls are extremely protective of how they are perceived by wider society, creating unspoken codes of conduct within these spaces. Practices that threaten the facade – such as “slash” shipping, the imagined romantic and sexual pairing of two same sex characters or celebrities – are further marginalised within communities as a means to regulate and maintain the limits of “good” fangirl behaviour.

As one participant condemned when asked about slash fan fiction:

It’s about real people […] I just think that’s so weird. I think shame is needed there.

Fangirls strive to distance themselves from the hysterical fangirl trope. “Larries” – fans who support the imagined relationship between One Direction bandmates Harry Styles and Louis Tomlinson – are depicted as an obsessive and perverse faction within the fandom who are unable to distinguish their own fantasies from reality.

As one participant told me:

I would try and distance myself from that hyper-feminised sort of fangirl representation […] I didn’t want to be perceived as crazy and weird, even though I was!

Bonding through shame

Although shame is a regulatory tool fangirls deploy onto each other to maintain this good/bad fangirl binary, shame is also utilised in productive ways to foster relationships.

Shame is often thought of as a negative, isolating feeling. However, it is a dynamic emotion important in thinking about how these fandom spaces are formed in the first place, and how kinship is created among fans.

While it is common to think fandoms are simply organised around a shared object of devotion, it is the relationships between fans that generate and sustain these communities.

Many fangirls I interviewed praised the creativity of fan practices and the sense of belonging garnered through fandom as a point of pride of their fangirlishness.

One fangirl described sharing fan fiction within her online community felt like “having those giggly conversations with your sisters”.

Through creative practices and continuous online discourse, fans construct their spaces in perceived privacy for an audience of their peers. Shame becomes a fangirl criterion for realising reciprocal, empathetic and fulfilling relationships between fans.

As one participant recalled discovering a new friend also read One Direction fan fiction, she mused:

it was a moment there, where we connected. I understand you; you understand me.

Ultimately, shame is a dynamic and important function within online fandom communities. The cultural condemnation of pop music fangirls speaks to the wider societal devaluation of femininity as infantile, weak or anti-intellectual. The pervasiveness of this systemic devaluation of femininity is evident as shame is also used within fandoms to maintain a good/bad fangirl binary.

Conversely, shame fosters shared intimacy and creates kinship between fangirls, nurturing a sense of community and belonging. These fandoms are ultimately networks of little families, who happen to all love the same catchy tunes.

Sascha Samlal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Shame, intimacy, and community: fangirls are mocked, but it is more complex than you might think – https://theconversation.com/shame-intimacy-and-community-fangirls-are-mocked-but-it-is-more-complex-than-you-might-think-213750

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mohan Yellishetty, Co-Founder, Critical Minerals Consortium, and Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University

Australia’s nickel industry has been granted access to billions of dollars in federal funding as well as relief from royalty payments after a collapse in the global price of nickel that threatens thousands of jobs.

On Thursday BHP wrote down the value of its West Australian nickel division Nickel West to zero and said it was considering placing the entire division into a “period of care and maintenance”.

Nickel is a metal crucial for the production of stainless steel, alloys, electroplating and the batteries used in electric vehicles.

The global price has dived from a high of US$50,000 in 2022 to just US$16,400 per tonne on Monday in response to a huge increase in supply from Indonesia, much of it from Chinese-owned and operated mines.

On Monday ahead of this week’s Cabinet meeting in Perth, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Indonesia had increased its share of the global nickel market by more than ten times.

Last Friday his government added nickel to the official Critical Minerals List, giving it access to grants under the A$4 billion Critical Minerals Facility.

And then on Saturday the West Australian premier granted miners a temporary 50% rebate on royalties for the next 18 months whenever prices are below $US20,000 per tonne.

China is the largest processor

Lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite are needed for batteries and were touted by Treasurer Jim Chalmers as essential for powering the clean-energy technologies of the future.

Australia and Indonesia hold the world’s largest reserves of Nickel, each with about 21 million tonnes.

But China is by far the largest customer, accounting for 35% of the nickel processed worldwide plus about another 15% it processes in Indonesia.

China also accounts for about 80% of the rare earths processed worldwide, 90% of the Lithium, 70% of the Gallium, and the 70% of Germanium.

Its incredibly low cost of processing and competitive labor market gives it an almost unassailable advantage, turning suppliers into price takers rather than price makers.

China helped fund the oversupply

So, what went wrong for Australia? To help keep prices low China invested in mines in Indonesia, hugely increasing their output.

Australia is attempting to establish alternative processing chains, entering into critical minerals partnerships with India, Japan, Korea, the United States and the United Kingdom.

But such attempts run the risk of strategic responses in the form of export bans on processed commodities (China has previously imposed bans on the export of Gallium, Germanium and rare earths) and moves to create oversupplies.

Australia is a leading producer of critical minerals, supplying all ten of the elements needed for lithium-ion batteries, and has the advantage of better environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards that make it an attractive destination for investment.

But it lacks the capacity to refine all of its own production, meaning it has to dispose of many of the critical minerals it extracts as byproducts.

Read more:
Australia has rich deposits of critical minerals for green technology. But we are not making the most of them … yet

China’s stranglehold will be hard to escape

Until Australia can find a way to break free of the market stranglehold of our biggest customer, those investments will remain at risk.

On Monday Albanese said he was working on a larger response that would ensure Australia had an “ongoing industry in nickel”, which would be one of the resources of the 21st century.

One such effective response would be the creation of a large processing facility to service multiple mines, selling Australian-sourced and processed critical minerals that adhere to higher ESG standards compared to those sourced and processed elsewhere.

The prime minister said the decision wouldn’t be quick. He didn’t want a response that lasted “a day or two”.

Mohan receives funding from Australian Research Council, Geoscience Australia, Defense Science Institute, Boral Limites, AGL Loy Yang, CSIRO; Co-Convener, National Industry Working Group (Critical Minerals), Australia-India Chamber of Commerce, Fellow AusIMM

– ref. What’s behind the collapse in the price of nickel and how can the industry survive? – https://theconversation.com/whats-behind-the-collapse-in-the-price-of-nickel-and-how-can-the-industry-survive-223814

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Franklin, Associate Professor and Director, Occupational Respiratory Epidemiology, The University of Western Australia

Mulch containing asbestos has now been found at 41 locations in New South Wales, including Sydney parks, schools, hospitals, a supermarket and at least one regional site. Tests are under way at other sites.

As a precautionary measure, some parks have been cordoned off and some schools have closed temporarily. Fair Day – a large public event that traditionally marks the start of Mardi Gras – was cancelled after contaminated mulch was found at the site.

The New South Wales government has announced a new taskforce to help investigate how the asbestos ended up in the mulch.

Here’s what we know about the risk to public health of mulch contaminated with asbestos, including “friable” asbestos, which has been found in one site (Harmony Park in Surrey Hills).

What are the health risks of asbestos?

Asbestos is a naturally occurring, heat-resistant fibre that was widely used in building materials from the 1940s to the 1980s. It can be found in either a bonded or friable form.

Bonded asbestos means the fibres are bound in a cement matrix. Asbestos sheeting that was used for walls, fences, roofs and eaves are examples of bonded asbestos. The fibres don’t escape this matrix unless the product is severely damaged or worn.

A lot of asbestos fragments from broken asbestos products are still considered bonded as the fibres are not released as they lay on the ground.

Friable asbestos, in contrast, can be easily crumbled by touch. It will include raw asbestos fibres and previously bonded products that have worn to the point that they crumble easily.

The risk of disease from asbestos exposure is due to the inhalation of fibres. It doesn’t matter if those fibres are from friable or bonded sources.

However, fibres can more easily become airborne, and therefore inhalable, if the asbestos is friable. This means there is more of a risk of exposure if you are disturbing friable asbestos than if you disturb fragments of bonded asbestos.

Who is most at risk from asbestos exposure?

The most important factor for disease risk is exposure – you actually have to inhale fibres to be at risk of disease.

Just being in the vicinity of asbestos, or material containing asbestos, does not put you at risk of asbestos-related disease.

For those who accessed the contaminated areas, the level of exposure will depend on disturbing the asbestos and how many fibres become airborne due to that disturbance.

However, if you have been exposed to, and inhaled, asbestos fibres it does not mean you will get an asbestos-related disease. Exposure levels from the sites across Sydney will be low and the chance of disease is highly unlikely.

The evidence for disease risk from ingestion remains highly uncertain, although you are not likely to ingest sufficient fibres from the air, or even the hand to mouth activities that may occur with playing in contaminated mulch, for this to be a concern.

The risk of disease from exposure depends on the intensity, frequency and duration of that exposure. That is, the more you are exposed to asbestos, the greater the risk of disease.

Most asbestos-related disease has occurred in people who work with raw asbestos (for example, asbestos miners) or asbestos-containing products (such as building tradespeople). This has been a tragedy and fortunately asbestos is now banned.

There have been cases of asbestos-related disease, most notably mesothelioma – a cancer of the lining of the lung (mostly) or peritoneum – from non-occupational exposures. This has included people who have undertaken DIY home renovations and may have only had short-term exposures. The level of exposure in these cases is not known and it is also impossible to determine if those activities have been the only exposure.

Read more:
DIY renovators now most at risk of asbestos cancers

There is no known safe level of exposure – but this does not mean that one fibre will kill. Asbestos needs to be treated with caution.

As far as we are aware, there have been no cases of mesothelioma, or other asbestos-related disease, that have been caused by exposure from contaminated soils or mulch.

Has asbestos been found in mulch before?

Asbestos contamination of mulch is, unfortunately, not new. Environmental and health agencies have dealt with these situations in the past. All jurisdictions have strict regulations about removing asbestos products from the green waste stream but, as is happening in Sydney now, this does not always happen.

What if I’ve been near contaminated mulch?

Exposure from mulch contamination is generally much lower than from current renovation or construction activities and will be many orders of magnitude lower than past occupational exposures.

Unlike activities such as demolition, construction and mining, the generation of airborne fibres from asbestos fragments in mulch will be very low. The asbestos contamination will be sparsely spread throughout the mulch and it is unlikely there will be sufficient disturbance to generate large quantities of airborne fibres.

Despite the low chance of exposure, if you’re near contaminated mulch, do not disturb it.

If, by chance, you have had an exposure, or think you have had an exposure, it’s highly unlikely you will develop an asbestos-related disease in the future. If you’re worried, the Asbestos Safety and Eradication Agency is a good source of information.

Read more:
Asbestos still haunts those exposed as kids in mining towns

Peter Franklin is on the board of Reflections, a not-for-profit organisation for the asbestos awareness and support of people with asbestos-related disease.

– ref. Asbestos in mulch? Here’s the risk if you’ve been exposed – https://theconversation.com/asbestos-in-mulch-heres-the-risk-if-youve-been-exposed-223729

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bryan G. Fry, Professor of Toxicology, School of the Environment, The University of Queensland

The green anaconda has long been considered one of the Amazon’s most formidable and mysterious animals. Our new research upends scientific understanding of this magnificent creature, revealing it is actually two genetically different species. The surprising finding opens a new chapter in conservation of this top jungle predator.

Green anacondas are the world’s heaviest snakes, and among the longest. Predominantly found in rivers and wetlands in South America, they are renowned for their lightning speed and ability to asphyxiate huge prey then swallow them whole.

My colleagues and I were shocked to discover significant genetic differences between the two anaconda species. Given the reptile is such a large vertebrate, it’s remarkable this difference has slipped under the radar until now.

Conservation strategies for green anacondas must now be reassessed, to help each unique species cope with threats such as climate change, habitat degradation and pollution. The findings also show the urgent need to better understand the diversity of Earth’s animal and plant species before it’s too late.

An impressive apex predator

Historically, four anaconda species have been recognised, including green anacondas (also known as giant anacondas).

Green anacondas are true behemoths of the reptile world. The largest females can grow to more than seven metres long and weigh more than 250 kilograms

The snakes are well-adapted to a life lived mostly in water. Their nostrils and eyes are on top of their head, so they can see and breathe while the rest of their body is submerged. Anacondas are olive coloured with large black spots, enabling them to blend in with their surroundings.

The snakes inhabit the lush, intricate waterways of South America’s Amazon and Orinoco basins. They are known for their stealth, patience and surprising agility. The buoyancy of the water supports the animal’s substantial bulk and enables it to move easily and leap out to ambush prey as large as capybaras (giant rodents), caimans (reptiles from the alligator family) and deer.

Green anacondas are not venomous. Instead they take down prey using their large, flexible jaws then crush it with their strong bodies, before swallowing it.

As apex predators, green anacondas are vital to maintaining balance in their ecosystems. This role extends beyond their hunting. Their very presence alters the behaviour of a wide range of other species, influencing where and how they forage, breed and migrate.

Anacondas are highly sensitive to environmental change. Healthy anaconda populations indicate healthy, vibrant ecosystems, with ample food resources and clean water. Declining anaconda numbers may be harbingers of environmental distress. So knowing which anaconda species exist, and monitoring their numbers, is crucial.

To date, there has been little research into genetic differences between anaconda species. Our research aimed to close that knowledge gap.

Read more:
Stop killing brown snakes – they could be a farmer’s best friend

Untangling anaconda genes

We studied representative samples from all anaconda species throughout their distribution, across nine countries.

Our project spanned almost 20 years. Crucial pieces of the puzzle came from samples we collected on a 2022 expedition to the Bameno region of Baihuaeri Waorani Territory in the Ecuadorian Amazon. We took this trip at the invitation of, and in collaboration with, Waorani leader Penti Baihua. Actor Will Smith also joined the expedition, as part of a series he is filming for National Geographic.

We surveyed anacondas from various locations throughout their ranges in South America. Conditions were difficult. We paddled up muddy rivers and slogged through swamps. The heat was relentless and swarms of insects were omnipresent.

We collected data such as habitat type and location, and rainfall patterns. We also collected tissue and/or blood from each specimen and analysed them back in the lab. This revealed the green anaconda, formerly believed to be a single species, is actually two genetically distinct species.

The first is the known species, Eunectes murinus, which lives in Perú, Bolivia, French Guiana and Brazil. We have given it the common name “southern green anaconda”. The second, newly identified species is Eunectes akayima or “northern green anaconda”, which is found in Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, Trinidad, Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana.

We also identified the period in time where the green anaconda diverged into two species: almost 10 million years ago.

The two species of green anaconda look almost identical, and no obvious geographical barrier exists to separate them. But their level of genetic divergence – 5.5% – is staggering. By comparison, the genetic difference between humans and apes is about 2%.

Read more:
The forgotten Amazon: as a critical summit nears, politicians must get serious about deforestation in Bolivia

Preserving the web of life

Our research has peeled back a layer of the mystery surrounding green anacondas. This discovery has significant implications for the conservation of these species – particularly for the newly identified northern green anaconda.

Until now, the two species have been managed as a single entity. But each may have different ecological niches and ranges, and face different threats.

Tailored conservation strategies must be devised to safeguard the future of both species. This may include new legal protections and initiatives to protect habitat. It may also involve measures to mitigate the harm caused by climate change, deforestation and pollution — such as devastating effects of oil spills on aquatic habitats.

Our research is also a reminder of the complexities involved in biodiversity conservation. When species go unrecognised, they can slip through the cracks of conservation programs. By incorporating genetic taxonomy into conservation planning, we can better preserve Earth’s intricate web of life – both the species we know today, and those yet to be discovered.

Professor Bryan G. Fry is a National Geographic Explorer and has previously received funding as part of this role.

– ref. Scientists shocked to discover new species of green anaconda, the world’s biggest snake – https://theconversation.com/scientists-shocked-to-discover-new-species-of-green-anaconda-the-worlds-biggest-snake-223549

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paulomi (Polly) Burey, Associate Professor (Food Science), University of Southern Queensland

It’s an all too common situation – you’re busy cooking or baking to a recipe when you open the cupboard and suddenly realise you are missing an ingredient.

Unless you can immediately run to the shops, this can leave you scrambling for a substitute that can perform a similar function. Thankfully, such substitutes can be more successful than you’d expect.

There are a few reasons why certain ingredient substitutions work so well. This is usually to do with the chemistry and the physical features having enough similarity to the original ingredient to still do the job appropriately.

Let’s delve into some common ingredient substitutions and why they work – or need to be tweaked.

Oils versus butter

Both butter and oils belong to a chemical class called lipids. It encompasses solid, semi-solid and liquid fats.

In a baked product the “job” of these ingredients is to provide flavour and influence the structure and texture of the finished item. In cake batters, lipids contribute to creating an emulsion structure – this means combining two liquids that wouldn’t usually mix. In the baking process, this helps to create a light, fluffy crumb.

One of the primary differences between butter and oil is that butter is only about 80% lipid (the rest being water), while oil is almost 100% lipid. Oil creates a softer crumb but is still a great fat to bake with.

You can use a wide range of oils from different sources, such as olive oil, rice bran, avocado, peanut, coconut, macadamia and many more. Each of these may impart different flavours.

Other “butters”, such as peanut and cashew butter, aren’t strictly butters but pastes. They impart different characteristics and can’t easily replace dairy butter, unless you also add extra oil.

Aquafaba or flaxseed versus eggs

Aquafaba is the liquid you drain from a can of legumes – such as chickpeas or lentils. It contains proteins, kind of how egg white also contains proteins.

The proteins in egg white include albumins, and aquafaba also contains albumins. This is why it is possible to make meringue from egg whites, or from aquafaba if you’re after a vegan version.

Read more:
How to make the perfect pavlova, according to chemistry experts

The proteins act as a foam stabiliser – they hold the light, airy texture in the product. The concentration of protein in egg white is a bit higher, so it doesn’t take long to create a stable foam. Aquafaba requires more whipping to create a meringue-like foam, but it will bake in a similar way.

Another albumin-containing alternative for eggs is flaxseed. These seeds form a thick gel texture when mixed with a little water. The texture is similar to raw egg and can provide structure and emulsification in baked recipes that call for a small amount of egg white.

Read more:
Eggs are so expensive right now. What else can I use?

Lemon plus dairy versus buttermilk

Buttermilk is the liquid left over after churning butter – it can be made from sweet cream, cultured/sour cream or whey-based cream. Buttermilk mostly contains proteins and fats.

Cultured buttermilk has a somewhat tangy flavour. Slightly soured milk can be a good substitute as it contains similar components and isn’t too different from “real” buttermilk, chemically speaking.

One way to achieve slightly soured milk is by adding some lemon juice or cream of tartar to milk. Buttermilk is used in pancakes and baked goods to give extra height or volume. This is because the acidic (sour) components of buttermilk interact with baking soda, producing a light and airy texture.

Buttermilk can also influence flavour, imparting a slightly tangy taste to pancakes and baked goods. It can also be used in sauces and dressings if you’re looking for a lightly acidic touch.

Honey versus sugar

Honey is a complex sugar-based syrup that includes floral or botanical flavours and aromas. Honey can be used in cooking and baking, adding both flavour and texture (viscosity, softness) to a wide range of products.

If you add honey instead of regular sugar in baked goods, keep in mind that honey imparts a softer, moister texture. This is because it contains more moisture and is a humectant (that is, it likes to hold on to water). It is also less crystalline than sugar, unless you leave it to crystallise.

The intensity of sweetness can also be different – some people find honey is sweeter than its granular counterpart, so you will want to adjust your recipes accordingly.

Gluten-free versus regular flour

Sometimes you need to make substitutions to avoid allergens, such as gluten – the protein found in cereal grains such as wheat, rye, barley and others.

Unfortunately, gluten is also the component that gives a nice, stretchy, squishy quality to bread.

To build this characteristic in a gluten-free product, it’s necessary to have a mixture of ingredients that work together to mimic this texture. Common ingredients used are corn or rice flour, xanthan gum, which acts as a binder and moisture holder, and tapioca starch, which is a good water absorbent and can aid with binding the dough.

Read more:
Thank gluten’s complex chemistry for your light, fluffy baked goods

Paulomi (Polly) Burey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Run out of butter or eggs? Here’s the science behind substitute ingredients – https://theconversation.com/run-out-of-butter-or-eggs-heres-the-science-behind-substitute-ingredients-202036

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wes Hill, Associate Professor, art history and visual culture, Southern Cross University

Arthur Jafa’s Love Is the Message, the Message Is Death (2016) is, essentially, a music video. Currently on show at the Institute of Modern Art (IMA), Brisbane, it is also one of only a handful of video works in the world that could be called a masterpiece with a straight face.

Set to the booming rhythms of Kanye West’s Ultralight Beam (2016), Jafa’s work is seven-and-a-half-minutes of impeccably edited montages, most appropriated from the internet.

Black bodies in the turmoils and exultations of American life are shown striving, shuddering, dancing, fleeing, falling and in moments of reclaimed grace. Subtle repetitions – such as alien movie excerpts, police officers abusing their authority, the blistering surface of the sun – function as through-lines, grounding it in unconventional thematic registers.

Jafa elevates the music video while emulating the tenor of sports brand advertising. Sequences alternate between the prosaic and the universal; political reality and spirituality.

The majority of Jafa’s scenes are taken from amateur posts on YouTube, but others bear the watermarks of their IP owners (such as Getty Images, Amazing Space and Movieclips.com), as if in homage to the videos of Elaine Sturtevant, a pioneer of appropriation art.

The depths and virtuosity of Black identity

Love Is the Message begins with footage of a Black man, Charles Ramsey, who gained prominence for helping a white woman escape her kidnapper after being held captive for over a decade. He tells a reporter:

I knew something was wrong when a little pretty white girl runs into a Black man’s arms.

Scenes like this are imbued with racial division, which Jafa compiles like notes in a gospel score. They run adjacent to footage of some unequivocal geniuses of American culture: Nina Simone, Jimi Hendrix, Michael Jordan, Aretha Franklin, Serena Williams, Martin Luther King, Miles Davis and more.

These Black stars are shown in all their glory, but their presences are also tinged with melancholy; the shadow of great achievements born from social hardships, or of arrested potentiality.

Days after the presidential victory of Donald Trump, Jafa, at the ripe age of 56, first exhibited Love Is the Message in his New York solo debut. There it embodied public outrage over the 2014 deaths of Michael Brown, Tamir Rice and Eric Garner at the hands of white police officers, anticipating the then incoming government’s indifference to matters of racial injustice.

Described by critic Roberta Smith as “unbearably pertinent to our times”, Love Is the Message effectively relaunched Jafa’s artistic career.

Before then, he had spent years working as a cinematographer for Spike Lee, Julie Dash and John Akomfrah, amongst others (including second-unit work with Stanley Kubrick).

In recent years Jafa has expanded his practice beyond the realms of live-shot film and appropriated video. He now pursues his unique visual language through a variety of media, including oversized tyre sculptures and CGI projections, looking increasingly like a cultural archivist-turned-artist.

In all of this, Jafa examines the depths and virtuosity of Black identity, which, he asserts, is “an open ending”.

Read more:
50 years of hip-hop: Its social and political power resonates far beyond its New York birthplace

A time capsule

Eight years after its premiere, in the exhibition signage IMA director Robert Leonard situates Love Is the Message as a “time capsule”.

In 2024, we engage with the work very differently now that Kanye West, whose music is integral to its emotional core, is a controversial antisemitic symbol. Few saw this turn coming in 2016.

That said, even before the Kanye controversies, Jafa’s work was, in part, already dealing with the theme of greatness marred. Its closing scene is James Brown in concert – the soul singer who was arrested in 2004 on charges of domestic violence. In addition to this, Picasso, an artist central to debates about how we should discuss great art made by bad people, is specifically referenced by the album, The Life of Pablo, that Kanye’s song was taken from.

In this sense, Love Is the Message asks us to think about how we might separate our love for the art (the message) from any misgivings we may have about the artist (the messenger).

As time marches on and the work’s meanings shift, to my mind what resonates most today is its craft and conviction. There is its peculiar imagery and abstruse juxtapositions, the deathly gloom that hangs over its comical and ecstatic sequences, the surprising inferences of alien ontology.

Jafa has long been fascinated with the links between Black identity and alien symbolism. “Have you noticed that 2001’s monolith, Darth Vader’s uniform/flesh, and H. R. Giger’s alien are all composed of the same black substance?” he asks rhetorically in a 2015 essay.

Regardless of where we draw our moral lines, Love Is the Message is undeniably rousing; a love song to identity as an unrestricted thing, capable of being motivated by awe and rebellion.

While not particularly religious himself, Jafa “believes in Black people believing”.

His work presents spirituality as a counterpunch to anyone who wants to put people of colour in their place.

Love Is the Message, the Message Is Death is at the Institute of Modern Art, Brisbane, until 7 April.

Read more:
Kanye West and Wyndham Lewis: how ‘cancellation’ affected two artists, a century apart

Wes Hill does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The video art of Arthur Jafa: a counterpunch to anyone who wants to put people of colour in their place – https://theconversation.com/the-video-art-of-arthur-jafa-a-counterpunch-to-anyone-who-wants-to-put-people-of-colour-in-their-place-222510

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Claire Breen, Professor of Law, University of Waikato

Aotearoa New Zealand ranks among the highest in youth suicide rates among OECD countries – and it is Māori youth at the forefront of this national crisis.

Recent statistics show the number of suspected self-inflicted deaths for Māori males is nearly double the rate for non-Māori males. The rate for Māori females is around 1.8 times higher than the rate for non-Māori females.

The alarming discrepancy is most notable in the 15-24 age group, where the rate for Māori is about 2.6 times higher than for non-Māori.

Despite these concerning figures, there is no express right to health in New Zealand law, creating a gap in accountability. And by failing to ensure the health and wellbeing of young Māori, Aotearoa New Zealand is falling short of its international obligations.

Progress and retreat

Over the past five years, the government has taken some steps to tackle the country’s mental health crisis. But the priorities of the new government could threaten this already limited progress.

In 2019, NZ$2 billion was injected into the mental health system by the then Labour government. And the Mental Health Commission was established in 2021 with the aim of contributing to better and equitable mental health and wellbeing outcomes for all people.

Te Aka Whai Ora, the Māori Health Authority, was established under the Pae Ora (Healthy Futures) Act 2022. But while the new coalition government has announced the country’s first ever minister for mental health, it has also announced plans to scrap the authority.

Read more:
‘Have you been feeling your spirit was sad?’ Culture is key when assessing Indigenous Australians’ mental health

Te Aka Whai Ora’s 2023 report, Under One Umbrella, presents a comprehensive, integrated approach to mental health, alcohol and addiction for young people. Significantly, it advocates for a holistic “all-of-government” approach.

Submissions from a recent review of the Mental Health Act show strong support for the new legislation to uphold rights in alignment with international conventions, with more focus on tangata whaiora (someone seeking health) and whānau (extended family).

Although these initiatives and pending legislative reform represent a step in the right direction, the statistics related to youth mental health are still cause for concern.

International responsibilities to ensure health

One strategy to address the national mental health crisis for Māori youth would be to embed the human right to health in local policy and law. This would also bring Aotearoa New Zealand’s legislation into line with its international obligations.

In 1946, the World Health Organization adopted a broad definition of health:

Health is a state of complete physical, mental, cultural and social wellbeing and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity.

Over the course of the next two decades, health was conceived as a human right (in the Universal Deceleration of Human Rights and later in the International Covenant on Economic Social and Cultural Rights).

The International Convention on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination also obliged countries to eliminate race discrimination in public health and medical care.

For children, the right to health is further recognised in the Convention on the Rights of the Child 1989. And, specifically for Indigenous communities, in the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples 2007.

Read more:
Equity in health care improves people’s health

It is well established within international law that the right to health for Indigenous children and youth is linked to their distinct cultural, social and customary practices.

And various UN groups have repeatedly emphasised that Indigenous people have the right to receive culturally appropriate healthcare services that respect their traditional practices and medicines.

These groups have also urged countries to provide Indigenous communities with the necessary resources to design, deliver and control their own healthcare services.

The need for a legal framework

Aotearoa New Zealand is bound by these international agreements, and the rights and obligations that flow from them. Yet the right to health does not appear in our laws, which leaves a void in accountability and enforcement.

This hinders the implementation of effective health policies for tamariki and rangatahi Māori (children and young people), particularly as it limits the legal avenues available for recourse when the system fails.

Read more:
It’s despair, not depression, that’s responsible for Indigenous suicide

The disparities in mental health outcomes point to an immediate national challenge facing Aotearoa New Zealand, which is to formulate an effective mental healthcare framework.

The most appropriate starting point is to include the right to health in national policy and legislation. This would align New Zealand’s national policies and laws with international norms.

It would also mandate the government to take active steps to ensure that the highest attainable standards of mental health and wellbeing for tamariki and rangtahi Māori are met.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. NZ is bound by international mental health agreements – statistics for Māori show we’re failing to uphold them – https://theconversation.com/nz-is-bound-by-international-mental-health-agreements-statistics-for-maori-show-were-failing-to-uphold-them-219613

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matt Williams, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, Massey University

Many people believe at least one conspiracy theory. And that isn’t necessarily a bad thing – conspiracies do happen.

To take just one example, the CIA really did engage in illegal experiments in the 1950s to identify drugs and procedures that might produce confessions from captured spies.

However, many conspiracy theories are not supported by evidence, yet still attract believers.

For example, in a previous study, we found about 7% of New Zealanders and Australians agreed with the theory that visible trails behind aircraft are “chemtrails” of chemical agents sprayed as part of a secret government program. That’s despite the theory being roundly rejected by the scientific community.

The fact that conspiracy theories attract believers despite a lack of credible evidence remains a puzzle for researchers in psychology and other academic disciplines.

Indeed, there has been a great deal of research on conspiracy theories published in the past few years. We now know more about how many people believe them, as well as the psychological and political factors that correlate with that belief.

But we know much less about how often people change their minds. Do they do so frequently, or do they to stick tenaciously to their beliefs, regardless of what evidence they come across?

From 9/11 to COVID

We set out to answer this question using a longitudinal survey. We recruited 498 Australians and New Zealanders (using the Prolific website, which recruits people to take part in paid research).

Each month from March to September 2021, we presented our sample group with a survey, including ten conspiracy theories, and asked them how much they agreed with each one.

Read more:
Taylor Swift-NFL conspiracy theories are the result of two sets of hardcore fans colliding

All of these theories related to claims about events that are either ongoing, or occurred this millennium: the September 11 attacks, the rollout of 5G telecommunications technology, and COVID-19, among others.

While there were definitely some believers in our sample, most participants disagreed with each of the theories.

The most popular theory was that “pharmaceutical companies (‘Big Pharma’) have suppressed a cure for cancer to protect their profits”. Some 18% of the sample group agreed when first asked.

The least popular was the theory that “COVID-19 ‘vaccines’ contain microchips to monitor and control people”. Only 2% agreed.

Read more:
Intelligence doesn’t make you immune to conspiracy theories – it’s more about thinking style

Conspiracy beliefs probably aren’t increasing

Despite contemporary concerns about a “pandemic of misinformation” or “infodemic”, we found no evidence that individual beliefs in conspiracy theories increased on average over time.

This was despite our data collection happening during the tumultuous second year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Lockdowns were still happening occasionally in both Australia and New Zealand, and anti-government sentiment was building.

While we only tracked participants for six months, other studies over much longer time frames have also found little evidence that beliefs in conspiracy theories are increasing over time.

Finally, we found that beliefs (or non-beliefs) in conspiracy theories were stable – but not completely fixed. For any given theory, the vast majority of participants were “consistent sceptics” – not agreeing with the theory at any point.

There were also some “consistent believers” who agreed at every point in the survey they responded to. For most theories, this was the second-largest group.

Yet for every conspiracy theory, there was also a small proportion of converts. They disagreed with the theory at the start of the study, but agreed with it by the end. There was also a small proportion of “apostates” who agreed with the theory at the start, but disagreed by the end.

Nevertheless, the percentages of converts and apostates tended to balance each other pretty closely, leaving the percentage of believers fairly stable over time.

Read more:
Conspiracy theories aren’t on the rise – we need to stop panicking

Inside the ‘rabbit hole’

This relative stability is interesting, because one criticism of conspiracy theories is that they may not be “falsifiable”: what seems like evidence against a conspiracy theory can just be written off by believers as part of the cover up.

Yet people clearly do sometimes decide to reject conspiracy theories they previously believed.

Our findings bring into question the popular notion of the “rabbit hole” – that people rapidly develop beliefs in a succession of conspiracy theories, much as Alice tumbles down into Wonderland in Lewis Carroll’s famous story.

While it’s possible this does happen for a small number of people, our results suggest it isn’t a typical experience.

For most, the journey into conspiracy theory belief might involve a more gradual slope – a bit like a real rabbit burrow, from which one can also emerge.

Mathew Ling (Neami National), Stephen Hill (Massey University) and Edward Clarke (Philipps-Universität Marburg) contributed to the research referred to in this article.

Data collection for this study was supported by the Massey University Strategic Research Excellence Fund. Matt Williams also receives funding from the Marsden Fund Council, managed by the Royal Society Te Apārangi.

John Kerr works for the Public Health Communication Centre, which is funded by a philanthropic endowment from the Gama Foundation.

Mathew Marques does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Out of the rabbit hole: new research shows people can change their minds about conspiracy theories – https://theconversation.com/out-of-the-rabbit-hole-new-research-shows-people-can-change-their-minds-about-conspiracy-theories-222507

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jacinta L. Johnson, Senior Lecturer in Pharmacy Practice, University of South Australia

The cost-of-living crisis may be driving some Australians to look for cheaper medicines, especially if those medicines are not subsidised or people don’t have a Medicare card. Options can include buying their medicines from overseas, in a process called
“personal importation”.

Others also use this option to import medicine that is not available in Australia.

Here’s what’s involved and what you need to know about the health and legal risks.

Read more:
Medicare turns 40: since 1984 our health needs have changed but the system hasn’t. 3 reforms to update it

Cost-of-living crisis bites

Many Australians, particularly those with long-term illnesses, are finding it increasingly hard to afford health care.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reports the proportion of people who delayed or did not see a GP due to cost doubled in 2022-23 (7%) compared with 2021-22 (3.5%).

A survey published in 2022 of over 11,000 people found more than one in five went without a prescription medicine due to the cost.

For those with a Medicare card it’s usually best (and cheapest) to get medicines locally, especially if you also have a concession card. However, for some high-cost medicines, personal importation may be cheaper. That’s when an individual arranges for medicine to be sent to them directly from an overseas supplier.

A 2023 study found 1.8% of Australians aged 45 or older had imported prescription medicines in the past 12 months. That indicates potentially hundreds of thousands of Australians are importing prescription medicines each year.

Almost half of the survey respondents indicated they would consider importing medicines to save money.

Read more:
Last year, half a million Australians couldn’t afford to fill a script. Here’s how to rein in rising health costs

What’s involved?

Australia’s drug regulator, the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA), allows individuals to import up to three months’ supply of medicines for their own personal use (or use by a close family member) under the personal importation scheme.

This often involves ordering a medicine through an overseas website.

If the medicine would require a prescription in Australia, you must also have a legally valid prescription to import it.

Selling or supplying these medicines to others outside your immediate family is strictly prohibited.

Read more:
Here’s what new 60-day prescriptions mean for you and your hip pocket

How could this help?

For some high-cost medicines, personal importation may be cheaper than having the medicine dispensed in Australia. This is most likely for medicines not subsidised by the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (the PBS). People who do not hold a Medicare card may also find it cheaper to import certain medicines as they do not have access to PBS-subsidised medicines.

For example, for people with a specific type of leukaemia, treatment with sorafenib is not covered by the PBS. For these patients it could be up to about ten times more expensive to have their treatment dispensed in Australia as it is to import. That’s because there is a cheaper generic version available overseas.

Personal importation may also allow you to access medicines that are available overseas but are not marketed in Australia.

Read more:
How we can overcome the lack of treatment options for rare cancers

What are the risks?

All medicines carry risks, and medicine sold online can pose additional dangers. The TGA does not regulate medicines sold overseas, so the safety and quality of such medicines can be uncertain; they may not be produced to Australian standards.

While similar regulatory agencies exist in other countries, when ordering medicines from overseas websites it can be difficult to determine if the product you are buying has been assessed to ensure it is safe and will do what it says it will do.

The medicines purchased could be counterfeit or “fake”. Products bought through unverified or overseas websites may have undisclosed ingredients, contain a dose that differs from that on the label, or lack the active ingredient entirely.

Not all medicines can be legally imported through the personal importation scheme. Certain medicines are never allowed to be imported into Australia, and others can only be imported by a medical professional on behalf of a patient.

So if you attempt to import a restricted medicine, the Australian Border Force may seize it. Not only would you lose your medicine, but you could also receive a fine or face jail time.

As with any purchase from an overseas business, there is also a risk you may lose your money and you might not be protected by Australian consumer laws.

If you do choose to import medicines by buying them from an overseas website, you should also consider what could happen if delivery is delayed and you don’t get your medicine in time.

Read more:
How fake drugs end up in our public health system (and how to spot them)

Where can I get more advice?

If you are thinking about importing medicines you should first discuss this with a health professional, such as your GP or pharmacist.

They can help you determine if personal importation is permitted for the medicine you need. You can also discuss if this is the best option for you.

If you are having difficulty covering the cost of your medicines your doctor or pharmacist can also explore other potential alternatives to ensure you are receiving the most cost-effective treatment available in Australia.

Where do I go online?

If you then decide to import, here are some reputable sites to help navigate the global online medicines market:

• everyone.org helps people everywhere in the world access the latest medicines not available in their own countries

• Alliance for Safe Online Pharmacies is a not-for-profit organisation that collates information on how to find safe online pharmacies based in different regions of the world

• PharmacyChecker has also collated a list of trusted online pharmacies that ship medicines internationally.

Australian government websites about importing medicines include those from the TGA and on what to consider when buying medicines online from overseas.

Jacinta Lee Johnson is employed as the Senior Pharmacist for Research within SA Pharmacy and is a Board Director for the Society of Hospital Pharmacists of Australia. In the last five years, she has received research funding or consultancy funds (for development and delivery of educational materials) from SA Health, the Medical Research Future Fund, the Hospital Research Foundation – Parkinson’s, the Pharmaceutical Society of Australia, the Pharmacy Guild of Australia, the Society of Hospital Pharmacists of Australia, the Australian College of Pharmacy, Mundipharma Pty Ltd, Aspen Pharmacare Australia Pty Ltd, Reckitt Benckiser (Australia) Pty Ltd and Viatris Pty Ltd.

Kirsten Staff does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Taking expensive medicines or ones unavailable in Australia? Importing may be the answer – https://theconversation.com/taking-expensive-medicines-or-ones-unavailable-in-australia-importing-may-be-the-answer-219394

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendan Coates, Program Director, Economic Policy, Grattan Institute

Another year, another round of tax cuts. Australian governments have made an art of announcing new income tax cuts as elections draw near. But while such cuts are always popular with the public, they should not be confused with tax reform.

Labor’s redesign of the Coalition’s Stage 3 offers larger tax cuts for low and middle earners, and smaller (but still substantial) cuts for higher earners.

The real loser will be the budget. Both the original Stage 3 and the redesign will return more than A$20 billion a year in accumulated bracket creep to taxpayers without doing anything much to boost economic growth.

The cost to the budget means these tax cuts will make it harder for this government – and for future governments – to raise the money they will need to meet demands for more spending in areas such as healthcare, aged care, disability care and defence.

While high commodity prices are boosting the budget at the moment, the deficit we would have if it weren’t for that good fortune (the so-called structural deficit) is close to 2% of GDP, which is about $50 billion a year in today’s dollars.

We can try to close that deficit by making budget cuts, but spending cuts alone are unlikely to be enough.

Economic growth would help, but it’s been sluggish for more than a decade.

So what would genuine reform look like?

Genuine tax reform requires a “tax mix switch” – moving from taxes that do a lot of economic damage to taxes that are more efficient.

Such a switch would allow the government to raise as much or more money, while delivering an economic dividend at the same time.

Part of the switch would be a move away from income taxes towards taxes that would encourage us to use resources more efficiently, including taxes on wealth, land and the exploitation of natural resources.

And income taxes should be broadened by abolishing the labyrinth of concessions, deductions and deferral options available to the well-advised.

Super tax breaks cost $45 billion

Superannuation tax breaks are the biggest hole in the income tax base.

They cost the budget $45 billion a year – about 2% of GDP – and will soon cost more than the age pension.

They are also poorly targeted: half the super tax benefits flow to the wealthiest one-fifth of households – the ones who already have enough to fund their retirement.

Tighter limits on annual pre-tax contributions and lifetime post-tax contributions, and raising the tax rate on some pre-tax contributions, would reduce the use of super as a tax-minimisation tool.

And taxing super earnings in retirement (they are currently untaxed for people with superannuation balances below $1.9 million) would get comfortably off older Australians to make the same sort of contribution to the cost of government services as the rest of us.

Those changes could save the budget more than $10 billion a year.

Capital gains tax breaks encourage speculation

Similarly, the 50% capital gains tax discount means income from capital gains is taxed at a much lower rate than income from working.

When paired with negative gearing, the 50% discount encourages speculation on property in place of other more useful uses of funds.

Halving the capital gains tax discount – as Labor promised to do in 2016 and again in 2019 – would save the federal budget about $5 billion a year.

If combined with curbs to negative gearing, it’d save a further $2 billion a year at least.

Some of these savings could be used to reduce overall income tax rates. The rest could be used to repair the budget’s structural deficit.

Other ways of funding lower income tax rates and boosting government revenue include winding back fuel tax credits ($4 billion per year), boosting the taxes paid by companies that make their profits from exploiting Australia’s natural resources (at least $4 billion per year), and setting a minimum tax on trust distributions ($2.3 billion per year).

Read more:
Chalmers has a $70 billion a year budget hole: here are 13 ways to fill it

The goods and services tax is getting weaker

A bold government would revamp the goods and services tax (GST) too, either by increasing the rate or by reducing exemptions. As each year goes by we are spending more and more of our income on exempt services, including health and education.

A 15 per cent GST could raise about $12 billion a year after accounting for the cost of cushioning the impact on the poorest 40 per cent of households.

Federal and state governments would each be $6 billion a year better off if they shared that remaining revenue 50:50.

We would not expect any government to pursue all of these major changes at once. Tax reform is a marathon rather than a sprint.

But tax cuts without reform leave less money to buy genuine tax reform, reducing the government’s room to respond to future economic shocks, and pushing the cost of today’s spending onto future generations.

Real tax reform isn’t easy, but neither is good government.

The Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute’s activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities as disclosed on its website.

Brendan Coates does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Labor’s Stage 3 changes aren’t genuine tax reform – here’s what would be – https://theconversation.com/labors-stage-3-changes-arent-genuine-tax-reform-heres-what-would-be-223547