Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vinuli Withanarachchie, PhD candidate, College of Health, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University

The number of women using medicinal cannabis is growing in New Zealand and overseas. They use cannabis treatment for general conditions such as pain, anxiety, inflammation and nausea, as well as gynaecological conditions, including endometriosis, pelvic floor conditions, and menopause.

However, their experiences with medicinal cannabis remain under-explored in research and overlooked in policy and regulation. As our work shows, they face several gender-specific barriers to accessing medicinal cannabis. Some of these hurdles lead women to seeking cannabis from illegal markets.

New Zealand introduced the medicinal cannabis scheme five years ago to enable access to legal, safe and quality-controlled cannabis products for any condition a doctor would deem suitable for a prescription.

A recent analysis found the number of medicinal cannabis products dispensed has increased more than 14-fold since 2020, with more than 160,000 prescriptions administered during 2023/2024.

In the first two years of the scheme, women were the primary recipients of medicinal cannabis prescriptions. Between 2022 and 2023, the number of prescriptions issued to female patients doubled to 47,633.

Our findings from a large-scale national survey show that although women perceive physicians as supportive of prescribing medicinal cannabis, they were less likely to have prescriptions than men. This is similar to findings from Australia.

Potential reasons include the cost of visiting health professionals, unpaid care-giving duties, lower workforce participation and a pay disparity – all creating barriers to accessing health services.

Women were also more likely not to disclose their medicinal cannabis use to others, citing it would be less accepted by society because of their gender.

Gendered risks in illegal cannabis markets

Our latest study aligned with Australia in finding that women often seek cannabis from illegal sources because of perceived lower prices. Many could not financially sustain accessing legal prescriptions because medicinal cannabis is not funded by New Zealand’s drug-buying agency Pharmac.

Study participants discussed the health risks of accessing illegal cannabis such as consuming products without knowing how strong they are or whether they have been contaminated with harmful substances.

They also characterised illegal cannabis markets as unsafe and intimidating for women, with little legal protection and the presence of predatory male sellers. Some even described gender-specific experiences of physical assault, intimidation and sexual harassment, particularly when cannabis buying occurred in drug houses or locations controlled by the seller.

Women accessing medicinal cannabis in illegal markets increasingly relied on female suppliers, viewing them as safer and more reliable. Some also helped connect others to these suppliers and used social media to warn other women of unsafe male suppliers. This created informal women-led support networks for access.

Accessing legal prescriptions

One of our recent studies found many women begin their journeys with medicinal cannabis online via social media, often leading them to cannabis clinics with a strong digital presence. Women are now a growing demographic for specialised medicinal cannabis clinics in New Zealand and in other countries.

Cannabis clinics have a reputation among medicinal cannabis consumers for being more knowledgeable and positive about treatments than general practitioners and other health providers. Women have been encouraged by positive online testimonies from other women using cannabis treatments for gynaecological and other conditions.

Female medicinal cannabis patients also described the financial burden of accessing a prescription, including consultation fees and the costs of products as barriers to access.

Their relationships with their GPs strongly influenced their decision to seek a prescription. Those with prior experiences of having their pain underestimated or misdiagnosed in mainstream care were more likely to source legal medicinal cannabis from cannabis clinics.

Policy and practice

The current scientific evidence for using medicinal cannabis for gynaecological conditions is still emerging. Clinical trials are under way in Australia to evaluate cannabis treatment for endometriosis and period pain.

Women’s reliance on online sources and personal recommendations to learn about medicinal cannabis highlights a gap in public awareness and government education about the legal prescription scheme. Hesitance to discuss and recommend cannabis treatment among GPs also persists as a barrier to access.

Online peer networks on social media platforms are promoting women’s agency and informing their decision making around medicinal cannabis, but also raise the risks of misinformation.

Although marketing of medicinal cannabis to women may improve their engagement with the prescription scheme, it may also put them in a vulnerable position where they are encouraged to pursue expensive treatment options which may not be effective.

The collective findings from our studies indicate complex financial, social and systemic factors affecting safe and equitable access to medicinal cannabis for women. To improve women’s engagement with New Zealand’s medicinal cannabis scheme, we suggest GPs should have informed and non-stigmatising discussions with female patients to explore when medicinal cannabis might be an appropriate treatment option.

Better access to good official consumer information about medicinal cannabis and greater investment in clinical trials for gynaecological conditions would also improve and support women’s decision making about their health.

Vinuli Withanarachchie receives funding from the Health Research Council for research on cannabis policy reform.

Chris Wilkins receives funding from the Health Research Council for studies on cannabis policy and vaping.

Marta Rychert receives funding for cannabis research from the Royal Society of NZ and the Health Research Council.

– ref. More women are using medical cannabis – but new research shows barriers push some into illegal markets – https://theconversation.com/more-women-are-using-medical-cannabis-but-new-research-shows-barriers-push-some-into-illegal-markets-258797

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nancy Cushing, Associate professor, University of Newcastle

Pet-keeping is often promoted for the benefits it brings humans. A close association with another animal can provide us with a sense of purpose and a daily dose of joy. It can aid our health, make us more conscientious and even help us form relationships with other humans.

But the situation is perhaps not as rosy for the animal itself. Domesticated animals often live longer than their free-living counterparts, but the quality of those lives can be compromised. Pets can be fed processed foods that can lead to obesity. Many are denied a sexual life and experience of parenthood. Exercise can be limited, isolation is common and boredom must be endured.

In the worst cases, pets suffer due to selective breeding practices, physical abuse and unethical commercial breeding.

Is this the best life for the species we feel closest to? This question was raised for me when I heard the story of Valerie, the dachshund recaptured in April this year after almost 18 months living on her own on South Australia’s Karta Pintingga/Kangaroo Island.

Valerie: the story that captivated a nation

Valerie, a miniature dachshund, escaped into the bush during a camping trip on Kangaroo Island in November 2023. After several days of searching, her bereft humans returned to their home in New South Wales. They assumed the tiny dog, who had lived her life as a “little princess”, was gone forever.

Fast-forward a year, and sightings were reported on the island of a small dog wearing a pink collar. Word spread and volunteers renewed the search. A wildlife rescue group designed a purpose-built trap, fitting it out with items from Valerie’s former home.

After several weeks, a remotely controlled gate clattered shut behind Valerie and she was caught.

Cue great celebrations. The searchers were triumphant and the family was delighted. Social media lit up. It was a canine reenactment of one of settler Australia’s enduring narratives: the lost child rescued from the hostile bush.

A dog’s-eye view

But imagine if Valerie’s story was told from a more dog-centred perspective. Valerie found herself alone in a strange place and took the opportunity to run away. She embarked on a new life in which she was responsible for herself and could exercise the intelligence inherited from her boar-hunting ancestors.

No longer required to be a good girl, Valerie applied her own judgement – that notorious dachshund “stubbornness” – to evade predators, fill her stomach and pass her days.

Some commentators assumed Valerie must have been fed by anonymous benefactors – reflecting a widely held view that pets have limited abilities.

Veterinary experts, however, said her diet likely consisted of small birds, mammals and reptiles she killed herself – as well as roadkill, other carrion and faeces.

Valerie was clearly good at life on the lam. Unlike the human competitors in the series Alone Australia, she did not waste away when left in an island wilderness. Instead, she gained 1.8 kg of muscle – and was so stocky she no longer fit the old harness her humans brought to collect her. She had literally outgrown her former bonds.

Valerie could have sought shelter with the island’s humans at any time, but chose not to. She had to be actively trapped. Once returned to her humans, she needed time to reacclimatise to life as a pet.

Not all missing pets thrive in the wild. But all this raises the question of whether Valerie’s rescue would be better understood as a forced return from a full life of freedom, to a diminished existence in captivity?

A long history of pets thriving in the wild

Other examples exist which suggest an animal’s best life can take place outside the constraints of being a pet.

Exotic parrots have fled lives in cages to form urban flocks. In the United States, 25 species initially imported as pets have set up set up self-sustaining, free-living populations across 23 states.

Or take the red-eared slider turtle, which is native to parts of the US and Mexico. It’s illegal to keep the turtles as pets in Australia, but some of those smuggled in have later been released into urban wetlands where they have established large and widespread populations.

Cats are perhaps the most notorious example of escaped pets thriving on their own in Australia. They numbers in the millions, in habitats from cities to the Simpson Desert to the Snowy Mountains, showing how little they need human assistance.

One mark of their success is their prodigious size. At up to 7kg, free-living cats can be more than twice the weight of the average domestic cat.

Around the world, exotic former companion mammals, birds, fish, reptiles, amphibians and insects have all established populations large enough to pose problems for other species.

Rethinking animals as pets

Of course, I am not advocating that pets be released to the wild, creating new problems. But I do believe current pet-keeping practices are due for reconsideration.

A dramatic solution would be to take the animal out of the pet relationship. Social robots that look like seals and teddy bears are already available to welcome you home, mirror your emotions and offer up cuddles without the cost to other animals.

A less radical option is to rethink the idea of animals as “pets” and instead see them as equals.

Some people already enjoy these unforced bonds. Magpies, for example, are known to have strong allegiances with each other and are sometimes willing to extend those connections to humans in multi-species friendships.

As for Valerie, she did make “her little happy sounds” when reunited with her humans. But she might look back with nostalgia to her 529 days of freedom on Kangaroo Island.

Nancy Cushing receives funding from the State Library of New South Wales as the Coral Thomas Fellow. She is a member of the executive committee of the Australian Historical Association.

– ref. It’s time to face an uncomfortable truth: maybe our pampered pets would be better off without us – https://theconversation.com/its-time-to-face-an-uncomfortable-truth-maybe-our-pampered-pets-would-be-better-off-without-us-256903

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julia Hamilton, Lecturer in History and Archaeology, Macquarie University

We know surprisingly little about the lives of children in ancient Egypt.

And what records we do have about them often concern the lives of the elite – the young king or the children of senior officials. They are more prominent in surviving material evidence, especially funerary art. Infant mortality rates were high in ancient Egypt.

As a result, much of the work in Egyptology on representations of childhood in ancient Egypt is dominated by evidence for the lives of boys and young adult men.

But what were the lives of ordinary girls like in ancient Egypt? And how did they make their way in a deeply patriarchal culture?

Finding hieroglyphic words for girls

An initial problem in studying girls’ lives in ancient Egypt is answering the question: who was a girl in ancient Egypt?

Chronological age was not always recorded by ancient Egyptians in their letters or inscriptions.

Instead, more general words and hieroglyphic signs tended to accompany images of men, women and children to indicate their social roles.

These words and signs were only loosely associated with biological development.

Hieroglyphic words for infants and small children, for instance, could be marked with an image of a small, seated child – sometimes with a finger held to its mouth.

Among the words used to describe young girls – talking, walking, and participating alongside adults in their work – was sheriyt.

This is the word often found in ancient accounting documents recording payments of wages, indicating a girl-child worker. They are distinguished from older women in these documents, although it is difficult to know precisely how young they might have been.

In this way, written administrative records and archaeological evidence reveals girls of many social classes were integrated into economic production from an early age.

Payment for work

Elephantine, a town at Egypt’s southern frontier near modern-day Aswan, provides a unique window into the urban life of some girls who worked in textile workshops during the ancient Egyptian Middle Kingdom, which dates approximately 2030–1650 BCE.

First published in 1996, archaeologists found a ceramic bowl repurposed as a writing surface in a house in the densely packed urban settlement.

The excavators initially dated the bowl to the reign of King Amenemhat III, who ruled almost 3,800 years ago. However, based on the style of writing and the types of names listed, some scholars have also dated it earlier. It contains lists of payments of provisions of grain for textile workers over the course of a month.

What makes this document so important is that it names at least 18 child workers. Of these, 11 are girls, clearly marked with the Egyptian word sheriyt, working alongside 28 adult women.

The list shows adult women in this workshop received between 50–57 heqat (around 240–274 litres) of grain – although it’s not entirely clear if this was a one-off payment, a payment per month, or something else. The girls earned smaller but still significant wages of 3–7 heqat (around 14–34 litres).

Some other adult women seem to have also received comparable provisions to the girls, although without further information it is difficult know their social status or age.

This document not only confirms that girls received payment for their labour. It also suggests a structured apprenticeship system where young girls (and boys) worked alongside experienced craftswomen.

This corroborates evidence from visual art of textile workshops from the same period.

Work life, home life

Archaeological evidence suggests textile production occurred both within homes and in dedicated workshops.

Evidence from the excavations at Elephantine suggests homes had several rooms with multiple purposes, including courtyards, entrance vestibules, kitchens with ovens (recognisable by blackened walls and ash deposits), and possible stairs leading to roof spaces.

Privacy would have been limited. Daily life would have included close interaction with animals, as evidenced by attached animal pens.

More recently, close to the house where the provision list was discovered, archaeologists found needles, spindles, shuttles, and remains of pegs for a large loom.

These were found both inside houses and in the courtyards attached to them.

It’s hard to know what exactly these buildings were for; they probably served multiple purposes.

Lives shaped by class and legal status

Not all girls at Elephantine had the same experience of life. The town’s position at Egypt’s southern frontier in this period meant it was home to diverse populations, which included migrants, enslaved people and transitory workers.

A letter dating to the reign of King Amenemhat III documents some families, including women and children, arriving at Elephantine seeking work during a famine in their home region.

This evidence can be compared to a legal document from the same time period but from another Egyptian town, El Lahun. This document mentions the purchase and transfer of enslaved women and infants who are called Aamut, referring to a region in West Asia. The document shows they have been given new Egyptian names.

These documents remind us factors such as class and legal status have always profoundly shaped girls’ lives.

Valuing the work of girls

Accessing the everyday thoughts, feelings, and perspectives of many ancient people, especially children, is challenging for historians. We don’t, for instance, have a wealth of personal diaries from ancient Egypt to learn about girls’ interior lives.

But what’s clear is that girls were not merely passive participants in society. They were active economic contributors, who often received formal compensation for their work.

Historians must always look beyond elite contexts to incorporate diverse evidence types – administrative documents, archaeological remains, and artistic representations – to construct a more complete picture of ancient lives.

Julia Hamilton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Work, wages and apprenticeships: sifting for clues about the lives of girls in ancient Egypt – https://theconversation.com/work-wages-and-apprenticeships-sifting-for-clues-about-the-lives-of-girls-in-ancient-egypt-249581

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

When Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong went out on Monday to back the United States attack on Iran, it was obvious their support was through gritted teeth.

Albanese told their joint news conference: “The world has long agreed that Iran cannot be allowed to get a nuclear weapon. And we support action to prevent that. That is what this is.

“The US action was directed at specific sites central to Iran’s nuclear program. We don’t want escalation and a full-scale war. We continue to call for dialogue and for diplomacy. As I’ve said for many days now, we are deeply concerned about any escalation in the region and we want to see diplomacy, dialogue and de-escalation.”

At the news conference and in Wong’s media round beforehand, one big question was, why did they take so long to appear?

The attack is a seismic event in the Middle East conflict. Yet on Sunday the government only put out a tepid statement attributed to a “spokesperson”, which did not endorse the American action.

This suggests the prime minister and foreign minister are, at the very least, uncomfortable with the action.

It is further evidence of the current distance between the Australian government and the Trump administration. Whether it affects Albanese’s attempt to get the now much-sought after bilateral remains to be seen.

At every stage of the Middle East conflict, as the situation has progressively escalated, the Australian government has been urging restraint and/ or de-escalation.

Albanese is caught between not wanting to repudiate the Americans, the conflicting pressures of domestic lobbies, and his Labor constituency.

Over the years, Albanese has moved to the political centre. But he hasn’t taken down from his website a strong speech he made in 2003 opposing the Iraq war.

“In the short term, the conflict that is now clearly about to start can only make things worse, perhaps much worse,” Albanese told parliament then. “Iraq does not represent a threat to Australia. We are, with this [Howard government] decision, supporting a pre-emptive strike, which changes forever the way that international politics works.”

In that war and this war, some of the same issues are at play. Iraq was thought to have weapons of mass destruction – later it was found it did not. Iran has long been on the path to developing nuclear weapons, but there are varying intelligence assessments of how much progress it has made.

One can’t help thinking Albanese probably has the same sort of reservations about the Iran strike that he did about the Iraq war.

For Australia’s there is one big difference: there is no thought of involving Australian defence forces, as happened in Iraq.

Former Labor senator Doug Cameron, in parliament from 2008 to 2019 and a firebrand of the left, on Monday recalled how then opposition leader Simon Crean opposed Australia’s support for and participation in the Iraq war. (Crean said, “Never allow our foreign policy to be determined by another nation. Never commit to unnecessary war when peace is possible.”)

Cameron, now a national patron of Labor Against War, issued several tweets condemning the government’s stand, and saying “time for Labor backbenchers to speak up”.

But the Labor backbench is far from what it once was. Hardly anyone speaks up to challenge anything. As for the left, it is a shadow of its old feisty self.

“What has happened to the left?” Cameron asks. “To be honest I don’t understand it,” he admits to The Conversation.

Cameron recalls how the left – and indeed the wider caucus – was up in arms when Bob Hawke in the mid-1980s wanted Australia to facilitate the Americans’ testing of MX missiles that would splash down in the Tasman Sea. Hawke had to back down.

He wonders if it’s a matter of not wanting to contradict a “left prime minister, and a left foreign minister”. “Personal support and party solidarity have come before common sense.”

There are many causes of the demise of the ALP left, as Cameron knew it. They include the loss of what power Labor’s rank-and-file once had, the splintering of the left more broadly to minor parties notably the Greens, and the decline of ideology within Labor (and generally). There is no current “Doug Cameron”-equivalent in the caucus. The factions no longer fight over ideas – they preside over spoils.

Those who contest the thesis of the decline of the left argue the contemporary Labor left has been shaping the Albanese government’s agenda on key issues from within, for example on industrial relations, industry policy, climate policy, and gender issues.

If the Albanese of 2003 could have foreseen what the caucus left of 2025 would be like, he’d have been surprised, and possibly shocked. As it is, he’s pretty pleased the left is so quietly behaved.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. View from the Hill: Albanese supports US bombing, reluctantly – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-albanese-supports-us-bombing-reluctantly-258967

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samantha Hepburn, Professor, Deakin Law School, Deakin University

The controversial extension of Woodside’s North West Shelf gas project off Western Australia faces two legal challenges. Both raise significant concerns about the validity of government approvals. One could even seek an injunction, preventing federal environment minister Murray Watt from making a final decision.

The first battle is being fought along climate lines. Enormous amounts of greenhouse gases will be released when gas from the project is exported and burned overseas. The Friends of Australian Rock Art group now argues the then WA environment minister Reece Whitby should have taken this pollution into account when approving the extension in December.

The second concerns ancient Aboriginal rock art in the Murujuga National Park on the Burrup Peninsula. There’s evidence greenhouse gas emissions released during extraction of fossil fuels is damaging the artwork, and Traditional Owners are seeking a protection order.

The decision to grant the extension appears at odds with national heritage and state environment laws. Both cases will be a closely watched test of these legal protections.

What’s the North West Shelf approval about?

Approval for the North West Shelf gas processing plant in Karratha, WA, was to expire in 2030. Woodside Energy sought to extend the project to 2070.

The state government gave approval to the extension in December, and the federal government gave conditional approval last month.

Watt gave Woodside ten business days to respond to “strict conditions particularly relating to the impact of air emissions” on nearby rock art, but that deadline was not met. Woodside has been given more time to review the conditions.

Meanwhile, two legal challenges have been mounted.

The Friends of Rock Art case

Earlier this month, the group Friends of Australian Rock Art requested judicial review of the approval by Whitby.

Judicial review is where courts review government decisions to ensure they are lawful and fair. The case is yet to be heard in the WA Supreme Court.

The group argues the state failed to give proper regard to the climate impact of the proposal, as required under the WA Environment Protection Act.

Specifically, the group argues the approval did not fully examine the climate impacts of so-called “scope three” emissions. These occur when the exported gas is burned overseas.

Under WA state law, the minister must consider whether a proposal will have a significant effect on the environment. This is a broad requirement and the climate effects of a decision are relevant.

The WA Office of Environmental Protection makes this clear in a statement of objectives, which include minimising “the risk of environmental harm associated with climate change by reducing greenhouse gases as far as practicable”.

Guidelines published in November to help implement this objective set out that where scope three emissions are likely to exceed 100,000 tonnes a year, extra information must be provided to government. This includes “a summary of where the scope three emissions will be emitted (domestic or international), and whether they are or are reasonably likely to be subject to emission reduction requirements as scope 1 or 2 emissions”.

The guidelines further state that the EPA’s usual minimum expectation for proposals is for “deep, substantial and sustained emission reductions” this decade – with net zero no later than 2050, and reductions occurring along a linear trajectory (at minimum) from 2030.

Woodside has indicated the project extension would emit about 80 million tonnes of scope three emissions annually – about equal to the emissions from a small to medium-sized country.

Co-convener of the Friends group, Judith Hugo, said the minister did not give adequate regard to the guidelines and failed to consider the project’s full impact on the climate, as well as the nearby rock art.

While litigation on scope three emissions is relatively new, it is gaining traction globally. It has become an increasingly significant factor underlying corporate climate action and policy development.

2. The Traditional Owner case

Raelene Cooper is a Mardathoonera woman and founder of the group Save our Songlines. She filed legal action in the Federal Court in 2022, seeking temporary protection from industrial emissions for the art.

Murujuga has some of the planet’s oldest known rock art, dating back 40,000 years. Research has shown rocks closer to the industrial operations have been degraded by past emissions.

On May 23 this year, Cooper called for an “urgent assessment of the ongoing impacts of all industry on the Burrup” before the federal government decided on Woodside’s proposed extension.

She had filed a motion in the Federal Court seeking to compel Watt to make a determination of her Murujuga Section 10 cultural heritage assessment. But Watt announced conditional approval for the Woodside extension on May 28.

Watt reportedly promised to give Cooper three days’ notice of the approval. That would have given Cooper an opportunity to file an injunction preventing the minister from making a final decision to approve the North West Shelf prior to resolving her section 10 protection order.

Resolution of the protection order is particularly important given the art has been nominated for UNESCO World Heritage listing. The World Heritage Committee referred the nomination back to the federal government so as to “prevent any further industrial development adjacent to, and within, the Murujuga Cultural Landscape”.

This referral occurred before the project extension was approved. If the approval is finalised, the nomination may fail, because the government cannot ensure the area will be protected.

Cooper’s case is set to be heard in July.

High stakes and delicate decision-making

These legal actions reflect deep public concern over the North West Shelf gas project extension.

In the context of a worsening climate emergency and damage to ancient rock art, properly adhering to the legal requirements for the assessment of such projects couldn’t be more crucial.

Samantha Hepburn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Woodside’s North West Shelf gas extension is being challenged in the courts. Could it be stopped? – https://theconversation.com/woodsides-north-west-shelf-gas-extension-is-being-challenged-in-the-courts-could-it-be-stopped-259130

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Denniss, Adjunct Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

Almost all of Australia’s top chief executives are, according to their boards at least, knocking it out of the park in terms of performance.

That is despite sluggish productivity, persistently high carbon emissions, rising inequality and Australia’s public spending on research and development being among the lowest in the OECD.

According to new data from the Australian Council of Superannuation Investors, 91% of Australia’s top chief executive officers (CEOs) received some form of performance bonus last year. That elevated their pay well above their base salaries (which were already over A$1 million). Only five CEOs out of 142 eligible for a bonus received zero.

The fact nearly all of Australia’s top CEOs are receiving these performance bonuses shows performance pay is more about rewarding conformity and discipline than risk-taking and entrepreneurship.

Do we really believe 91% of our CEOs made big bets that paid off last year? A more plausible explanation is that we simply reward executives for not stuffing up. Their customer base is growing in line with population growth and their prices are rising faster than their cost of production, which means profits rise without too much effort.

Not keeping up with change

Take the electricity industry for example. It’s hard to imagine an industry in which change is more inevitable than the industry responsible for transitioning away from gas and coal-fired power stations to renewable energy.

But according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the electricity, gas and water industry spends a mere 0.24% of sales on research and development each year. That is half the economy-wide average.

Unfortunately, innovation does not appear to be a prerequisite for CEOs being rewarded with large bonuses. According to Energy Australia, its CEO Mark Collette (base salary over $1 million) recently challenged a room full of other well-paid leaders at Australian Energy Week to continuously ask themselves: “Will this make energy cheaper?”

However instead of focusing on keeping costs down for consumers, companies have sometimes resorted to misleading statements. Energy Australia recently admitted to misleading customers by claiming the coal and gas-fired electricity it was selling was “carbon neutral”.

Energy Australia was buying widely used carbon offsets to make the claim the fossil-fuel fired electricity it was selling was carbon neutral. In its apology Energy Australia conceded “offsets do not prevent or undo the harms caused by burning fossil fuels for a customer’s energy use”.

While it is clear Energy Australia’s spending on carbon credits did nothing to make the company’s energy cheaper, it is not yet clear if the board will award a “performance bonus”.

Leading the world – in pay packets

Another example of the lack of relationship between CEO pay and organisational performance is Australia’s university sector. The vice chancellors of Australian universities are among the best paid in the world, with over a dozen Australian earning more than the head of Cambridge University.

But there is no correlation between student satisfaction and vice chancellor pay.

And while Australian vice chancellor pay has been soaring, Australian universities have been slipping steadily down international rankings for university quality.

Inequality is rising

While performance-based bonuses and incentives are common among CEOs and vice chancellors, the same is not true for lower-paid staff.

Instead, these staff are often asked to “do more, with less” even as their real wages have declined. Universities have seen a notable decline in academic staff per student while the gap between the pay of lecturers and vice chancellors has skyrocketed.

Extremely high salaries for CEOs and vice chancellors have done nothing to boost Australian productivity growth, or our performance in global rankings for our universities, research and development or innovation. Paying out large bonuses for average performance has done little to help either.

Inequality in Australia is rising. As long as CEO pay is rising faster than the minimum wages, that gap will continue to widen. The latest data showed CEO salaries are 55 times that of the average worker.

Just doing their job

While it is true it is hard to measure the performance of a CEO, it’s also hard to measure the care and attention provided by a childcare worker, the compassion of an aged care nurse, the helpfulness of a call centre operator or the enthusiasm of a lecturer.

Few CEOs think we need bonuses to motivate the vast majority of Australian workers. But it is heresy to suggest those at the top of a big organisation could simply work diligently without a giant bonus.

So, it’s not just income that is unequal in Australia. We expect a lot more self-motivation from those at the bottom of the income distribution than those at the very top.

Richard Denniss does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Australian CEOs are still getting their bonuses. Performance doesn’t seem to matter so much – https://theconversation.com/australian-ceos-are-still-getting-their-bonuses-performance-doesnt-seem-to-matter-so-much-259382

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sanjoy Paul, Associate Professor in Operations and Supply Chain Management, UTS Business School, University of Technology Sydney

The Iranian parliament has approved the closure of key shipping route the Strait of Hormuz, in a move that could further escalate the Israel/Iran war.

The strait lies between Iran and its Gulf Arab neighbours and is used to transport about 20 million barrels per day of oil – the equivalent of 20% of global daily oil consumption.

Since 2020, this critical route has been used to transport an average of 14.8 million barrels a day of crude oil and natural gas liquids, 5.5 million barrels a day of petroleum products and 10.8 billion cubic feet per day of LNG.

The closure of the strait, which will not take effect until endorsed by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, will significantly impact global oil and gas supplies and could potentially create energy crises.

An important route for Asia

In 2024, 84% of the crude oil and natural gas liquids, and 83% of the LNG passed through this channel were destined for Asian countries including China, India, Japan and South Korea.

In the first quarter of 2025, China alone imported about 38% of crude oil shipped through the strait.

It is likely these countries will be directly impacted by a closure.

What it means for Australia

Only about 15% of Australia’s crude oil and 5% of petroleum products are imported from Middle Eastern countries including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

However, 30% of Australia’s refined oil effectively transits through the Strait of Hormuz. This is because Australia sources refined oil from the Republic of Korea and Singapore that is refined from crude oil from the Middle East.

If Australia’s key suppliers are affected by the closure, there could be devastating flow-on effects for the country’s oil supply.

Since the conflict between Iran and Israel started, the oil price has increased by 10%. The closure of the strait could further inflate the oil price globally

Though Australia does not rely directly on crude oil from the Middle East, its reliance on South Korea and Singapore for refined oil is significant. The increased oil price and its impact on the cost of goods and services could also hurt Australia’s fight to control inflation.

Past tensions in the strait

The Strait of Hormuz has never been fully closed. However, it has been disrupted a few times leading to reduced capacity.

Notable disruptions include attacks on commercial ships including oil tankers during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s and the tension in the strait between Iranian and US navies in 2007.

None of these disruptions led to the closure of the channel so the impact of these disruptions on global oil supply was minimal.

Bypassing the strait

Both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have established oil pipelines that could bypass the Strait of Hormuz if it is closed or compromised.

Saudi Arabia’s pipeline can carry five million barrels per day and the emirates’ capacity is 1.5 million barrels per day. This is compared to their production capacities of nine and 3.3 million barrels per day respectively.

This could significantly slow down the transportation of crude oil from both countries.

Qatar relies on the Strait of Hormuz to transport nearly all of its LNG shipments. Last week Qatar instructed all LNG carriers to hold off transiting through the strait until the day before loading and to remain east of Hormuz. This has kept their carriers outside the impacted regions.

The limited alternative options and reduced capacities of pipelines could potentially disrupt the global oil and LNG supply.

Potential strategies

If the strait is fully closed, the impacts could be severe, especially for Asian countries which rely on energy from the Middle East.

Many countries, such as China, have oil reserves that can sustain their current oil consumption for about five years. However, many developing countries don’t keep supply inventories.

In the short term, countries should seek to diversify their sources of oil and gas supply. In the long term, they should create a strategic reserve for it.

Supply countries should focus on expanding alternative routes such as pipelines connected to alternative ports.

Most importantly, countries should focus on creating renewable energy sources and speed up their adoption to meet energy needs. In future, renewable energies will be the most viable alternatives to crude oil and LNG amid geopolitical tensions.

Sanjoy Paul does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Strait of Hormuz: closing vital oil and gas route would disrupt global supplies. How will Australia be affected? – https://theconversation.com/strait-of-hormuz-closing-vital-oil-and-gas-route-would-disrupt-global-supplies-how-will-australia-be-affected-259535

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mandy Hagstrom, Senior Lecturer, Exercise Physiology. School of Health Sciences, UNSW Sydney

So you’ve never been to a gym and are keen to start, but something’s holding you back. Perhaps you don’t know what to actually do in there or feel like you’ll just look stupid in front of everyone. Maybe you’re worried about injuring yourself.

It’s OK. Everyone starts somewhere. I did, too.

Resistance exercise (such as weight lifting) is really good for your health. Benefits include a reduced risk of osteoporosis-related fractures, reduced risk factors for chronic diseases such as diabetes, better sleep, improved mental health and, of course, stronger and bigger muscles.

So, how do people get started in the gym? Here’s what you need to know, and what the research says.

Worried about injury?

Don’t be. It’s probably less risky than lots of other forms of exercise you might already do or did in the past.

Team sports such as rugby and soccer, and strength-based sports such as powerlifting, weightlifting, and cross fit all have similar injury rates. They’re all in the vicinity of three to four injuries per 1,000 hours of participation.

Going to the gym has almost half this rate of injuries, at about 1.8 per 1,000 hours.

Let’s put that into context.

If you go to the gym three times per week for a one-hour session – and you do that every week of the year – you achieve approximately 156 hours of resistance training exercise a year.

So if the injury rate is about 1.8 injuries per 1,000 hours, that means that you could exercise for years in the gym without even a little niggle!

Some groups, such as young men under 40, may be at a greater risk of injury in the gym. So if that’s you, you may want to be a little more conscious about how fast you progress, and the types of exercises you do in the gym.

Compare these injury risk stats to the known risks of sedentary lifestyles, and the worry should go out the door.

In short, it’s a lot more dangerous to be sedentary than it is to go to the gym.

OK, how do I get started?

It’s fine to begin with what you feel most comfortable with. You don’t have to go straight to a ridiculously complex or challenging program.

However, that doesn’t mean you don’t need to put in the effort!

Most gyms can start you off by designing a workout program for you (you might have to pay for a personal training session). If you have a medical condition, find an accredited exercise physiologist. They’re trained to help you exercise safely.

It’s OK to start with gym machines, which are designed to make it easier to keep your movements consistent.

But keep your mind open about trying the free weights section (where the dumbbells, barbells and mirrors are). Benefits from this type of training may vary from what you get via machines.

That’s because a lot of the moves you do with free weights are what’s called compound exercises, meaning they work a lot of muscles and joints together at the same time. They’re really good for you. Examples of compound exercises include:

• squats
• lunges
• deadlifts
• bench presses
• hip thrusts
• kettle bell swings.

How much should I do in the gym?

Standard government physical activity recommendations state you should do muscle strengthening twice per week.

If you are new to the gym, you can make progress with a minimalist approach. For example, you may choose to only lift once or twice per week, compared with many seasoned gym-goers who might lift four or five times per week.

Recent research shows even those people already consistently lifting in a gym can maintain or slowly improve by doing just two sessions per week, in which each exercise is only performed for one set and the whole session lasts just 30 minutes or so.

So if you can stick to one hour per week (made up of two challenging half-hour sessions) then you will still be making progress.

How do I make my habit stick?

Sticking to the habit after the novelty has worn off is where many come unstuck.

Some research suggests it takes six weeks to form a gym habit, and that the more frequent the attendance in those first six weeks, the more likely the habit will stick.

At the one-year mark, the biggest predictor of regular attendance (defined as twice per week) was enjoyment. This was followed closely by the concept of self-efficacy (believing in yourself and your ability to stick to it), and social support.

This is really important.

Find what you like about the gym. Train the way that you enjoy. Find a friend to join the gym with. That will help you create the habit.

From there, you can progress the types and intensity of gym exercises you do.

I feel like a duck out of water

Every gym-goer felt this at first. I did too.

The confusion about which bit of the machine to sit on, pull, or push, is a tad overwhelming.

The sense of security in sticking to the familiar, shying away from the free weight area.

Remember: everyone is there to improve themselves and is on their own journey.

Most people won’t even notice that you are there, and most experienced gym-goers will be delighted to help if you’re unsure.

If that’s not your experience at your local gym, perhaps look for a new and more welcoming environment. Not all gyms and gym cultures are created equal.

Mandy Hagstrom is affiliated with Sports Oracle, a company that delivers the International Olympic Committee diploma in Strength and Conditioning.

– ref. How do I get started in the gym lifting weights? – https://theconversation.com/how-do-i-get-started-in-the-gym-lifting-weights-258291

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Regina Scheyvens, Professor of Development Studies, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University

Attracting more Chinese tourists to New Zealand, including during the off-season, was a major part of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s trade agenda during his visit to China last week. As Tourism Minister Louise Upston put it: “we welcome anyone, from anywhere, anytime”.

It’s all part of the government’s plan to “turbocharge” the tourism sector with an additional NZ$13.5 million for marketing this year. The hope is this will help double the value of tourism as an export earner by 2034.

The China visit built on the government’s Tourism Growth Roadmap which aims to attract 3.89 million visitors by 2026, and 4.78 million by 2030-34.

Ironically, the release of the roadmap coincided with unprecedented, organised push-back against mass tourism across southern Europe this month. Fed up with the economic and cultural impact of too much “touristification”, residents of popular cities and islands in Italy, Portugal and Spain took part in coordinated protests, some even spraying tourists with water pistols.

Before COVID upended international tourism in 2020, similar serious concerns were voiced in New Zealand about environmental degradation, crowding and congestion, and declining public support for tourism.

But the plan to turbocharge tourism specifically aims to return international visitor arrivals to pre-COVID levels.

From destination management to marketing

As part of the government’s Tourism Boost Package, money generated by the International Visitor Levy (IVL) will be spent driving demand in Australia and elsewhere over the next two years.

But this use of the visitor levy (which was raised to $100 in October last year) seems at odds with its stated purpose. According to New Zealand Immigration, “The IVL is your contribution to maintaining the facilities and natural environment you will use and enjoy during your stay”.

Visitor levy revenue was strategically intended to support tourism regions to protect their natural environments and maintain crucial infrastructure.

Diverting visitor levy income to fund overall tourism growth also seems to turn a deaf ear to the 2020 interim report from the Tourism Futures Taskforce and the 2023 Tourism Adaptation Roadmap from the Aotearoa Circle industry group.

Both were widely acknowledged for their vision and ambition to create a future tourism that served the aspirations of Māori and local communities.

There’s also a risk of the 29 Destination Management Plans developed since 2021 (with financial support from the visitor levy) being shelved in this detour from destination management to marketing.

Redefining tourism ‘value’

There are several key questions about the practical implications of the government’s growth-oriented tourism development approach.

Firstly, staff and infrastructure limitations mean destinations and business will struggle to accommodate more numbers. As the acting mayor of MacKenzie District has noted, several businesses around Tekapo were forced to operate below capacity last summer because there was no suitable housing available for the staff, only up-market holiday rentals.

New Zealand also faces a tourism workforce crisis. Over the past ten years, there has been a 63% drop in the number of students taking tourism-related tertiary courses, and a 73% decrease in those completing hospitality courses.

Meanwhile, from Northland to Queenstown, basic utilities such as electricity and drinking water are being stretched beyond capacity during peak visitation times.

Secondly, there is a real risk of environmental damage from overtourism compromising the appeal of iconic attractions and destinations.

But despite concern over growing visitor pressure at Piopiotahi/Milford Sound over the past decade, the government recently rejected a plan to manage numbers and ban cruise ships in the inner sound.

Thirdly, there is the risk of tourism losing its social licence, as is happening in parts of Europe, given the huge burdens on small communities. As the mayor of Queenstown said recently: “When I first started as the mayor, I think it was one resident night to every 30 visitor nights. It is now one to 47.”

Ultimately, long-term value creation through tourism can only happen when “value” is defined in more than monetary terms and in ways that deliver for all stakeholders, including businesses, visitors, communities, mana whenua and nature.

The government’s focus on “turbocharging” economic growth through tourism now puts at risk what little progress has been made toward a sustainable tourism model and giving the regions most affected a voice.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. NZ’s plan to ‘welcome anyone, from anywhere, anytime’ is not a sustainable tourism policy – https://theconversation.com/nzs-plan-to-welcome-anyone-from-anywhere-anytime-is-not-a-sustainable-tourism-policy-259246

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Case, Lecturer in Musicology, Sydney Conservatorium of Music, University of Sydney

A new opera by American composer Nico Muhly is reimagining the myth of Aphrodite through a contemporary lens, exploring beauty, desire and identity in a strikingly relevant way.

Aphrodite had its world premiere on Friday at Sydney’s Carriageworks arts precinct. The opera is directed by Alexander Berlage, performed by the Sydney Chamber Opera (in collaboration with Omega Ensemble), and features a sharp libretto by Melbourne playwright Laura Lethlean.

It is a reflective production that challenges societal ideals and the enduring weight of cultural myths.

A contemporary take on mythology

Rather than simply retelling the myth, Nico Muhly’s Aphrodite engages in a creative dialogue with it. Through its protagonist Ava, an author and recently divorced mother of three, it interrogates the ideals and pressures associated with beauty and desirability.

The story opens as Ava (Jessica O’Donoghue) returns to her hotel room after the premiere of a Netflix documentary based on her best-selling book, The Aphrodite Complex.

Alone, Ava confronts personal insecurities, societal critiques, the fallout from her divorce, and fantasies of Hector, the young director of photography who worked on the documentary’s production with her in Athens.

From her vulnerability emerges Aphrodite (Meechot Marrero) – a manifestation of the mythical Greek goddess, and a subconscious force embodying Ava’s desires and fears.

Although it is brief (running for one hour) the opera’s plot is tightly focused. It centres on Ava’s emotional unravelling and her interaction with Aphrodite.

The interplay between both characters blurs the boundaries between myth and reality, exploring how the stories we tell about ourselves, our culture, and our ideals, shape our identities.

The opera poses profound questions. What does it means to be beautiful? Does beauty bestow power? How do societal expectations distort perceptions of self worth?

Despite her academic expertise in deconstructing the Aphrodite myth, Ava finds herself trapped in the very ideals she critiques. This highlights the inescapable pull these ancient narratives continue to have in contemporary life.

A visually stunning experience

From the moment Ava steps on stage in a black tailored suit and heels, the opera’s modern aesthetic is unmistakable.

The setting, designed by Isabel Hudson, is confined to a single hotel suite, including a bedroom, wardrobe and bathroom, with the bedroom backlit by a city skyline. Everyday details such as a flatscreen TV and a minibar cart create an atmosphere that feels both intimate and starkly contemporary.

A standout feature is the black-and-white screen above the stage. This screen displays subtitles for the English libretto, alongside live visuals of the performance (handled by video designer Morgan Moroney).

The projections, captured by roving cameras, do more than just document the action. They add an artistic layer by focusing on intimate details, such as a hand gripping a thigh, or toes curling in a carpet.

This visual storytelling evokes the voyeuristic tone of a music video or vintage film noir, accentuating the themes of scrutiny and self-perception. It reflects both the mythological obsession with beauty and the modern culture of constant observation.

As the opera progresses, the visuals evolve. Toward the climax, earlier footage is replayed, creating a dynamic where Ava and Aphrodite must confront their own images. This layering transforms the cameras from passive observers into active participants.

Musically engaging

Muhly’s score is performed with technical brilliance by Omega Ensemble, and perfectly complements Lethlean’s libretto.

Ava’s music alternates between structured and rhythmic patterns, reflecting her controlled persona – while more fragmented and fluid melodies mirror her internal struggles.

By contrast, Aphrodite’s music is bold and forceful, underscoring the goddess’s power and allure. As the narrative unfolds, the musical identities of Ava and Aphrodite intertwine, mirroring the blurring of their characters.

The opera’s success is due in no small part to the extraordinary performances of its two leads. Jessica O’Donoghue is outstanding as Ava, delivering a vocally precise and emotionally raw performance. She captures Ava’s complexities – such as her intellectual sharpness and emotional vulnerability – with extraordinary depth.

Meechot Marrero is equally phenomenal as Aphrodite. Marrero embodies the goddess’s desirability and power with a commanding stage presence and thrilling vocals.

Together, O’Donoghue and Marrero create a dynamic interplay that forms the opera’s emotional core.

A triumph of modern opera

In Aphrodite, Nico Muhly and Laura Lethlean have created a bold and thought-provoking opera that will resonate deeply with contemporary audiences.

It is not merely a performance, but an experience that will linger long after the final note. By reframing mythology through a modern lens, it challenges us to reconsider the ideals we uphold, and the myths we live by.

Aphrodite is a powerful reminder that beauty, like myth, is multifaceted: its power lies not in perfection, but in its ability to challenge, inspire and transform.

Aphrodite is on at Carriageworks, Sydney, until June 28.

Laura Case does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Myth meets modernity in Aphrodite, a striking opera that dissects the links between beauty, power and desire – https://theconversation.com/myth-meets-modernity-in-aphrodite-a-striking-opera-that-dissects-the-links-between-beauty-power-and-desire-257964

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nick Fuller, Clinical Trials Director, Department of Endocrinology, RPA Hospital, University of Sydney

If it feels like your child’s diet consists entirely of breakfast cereal, chicken nuggets and snacks that’d outlast the apocalypse, you’re not alone.

Processed foods are the go-to for many kids, and for some, they’re the only foods they’ll eat.

Here’s why – and what you can do about it.

Processed foods and their prevalence in kids’ diets

Processed foods are any foods altered from their natural state.

While some food processing is beneficial – such as pasteurising milk to kill bacteria – the ones that cause parents concern are ultra-processed foods, which use industrial methods to enhance flavour, texture and shelf life by adding sugars, salt, fats and artificial flavours, colours and preservatives.

Parents know some ultra-processed foods all too well – they’re the fast and junk foods kids love. But others hide in plain sight, disguised as “healthy” convenience foods such as flavoured yoghurts and muffins.

Ultra-processed foods offer low-to-no nutrition, which is why dietary guidelines recommend limiting them. But these
“discretionary foods” make up one-third of Aussie kids’ daily energy intake.

Why do kids find processed foods so appealing?

Basic biology

Ultra-processed foods are engineered to be addictive, with their added sugar, salt and fat activating kids’ brains’ reward system, releasing feelgood chemicals.

Evolution has hardwired humans to seek natural sugar- and fat-rich foods – a physiological response our hunter-gatherer ancestors developed to avoid starvation.

Food fussiness

One in two kids will experience a fussy eating phase – another survival response inherited from our ancestors, who avoided toxins by developing an aversion to unfamiliar and bitter foods.

Fussy eaters also favour ultra-processed foods, such as chicken nuggets, chips and breakfast cereals, because they’re familiar and non-threatening, often beige like breastmilk and kids’ first solid foods. Plus their blander flavours don’t overwhelm developing tastebuds.

Pester power

From sneaky YouTube ads to eye-level supermarket displays, kids are incessantly exposed to marketing that makes them crave – and demand – ultra-processed foods.

How processed foods impact kids’ health

Ultra-processed foods can impact kids’ health in a range of ways, contributing to:

• nutritional deficiencies. Kids filling up on ultra-processed foods are less likely to eat vegetables, fruits, whole grains and lean meats, producing a diet lacking in fibre and other key nutrients needed for growth and development

• childhood obesity. Ultra-processed foods are high in calories, unhealthy sugars, salt and fat, and often lack portion control, promoting overeating

• increased risk of diseases. Long-term overconsumption of ultra-processed foods is linked with a higher risk of developing a range of chronic diseases, including heart disease, type 2 diabetes and cancer.

Unhealthy eating habits can be hard to break, but positive diet and lifestyle changes – even later in childhood – can reverse these negative health effects.

Science-based tips for healthier eating habits

1. Eat together

Family mealtimes allow you to model healthy eating. Sit together around the table, share the same meal, and put devices away so everyone’s attention is on eating.

2. Introduce foods carefully

Research shows kids need eight to ten exposures before they willingly eat new foods. So offer them regularly, encourage tasting and don’t pressure them to eat.

While it’s tempting, avoid offering dessert as a reward for trying something healthy. Using treats as a reward increases kids’ preference for unhealthy foods.

Kids are also more likely to try new foods when they’re hungry, so avoid snacks one to preferably two hours before mealtimes.

3. Introduce variety to family favourites

Children are more open to trying new foods when there’s something familiar on their plate.

So, tweak family favourites by swapping ingredients, such as using lentils instead of beef in bolognese or roasting carrots to make “orange chippies”. Grating veggies into sauces also expands kids’ diets without overwhelming them.

4. Make food fun

Children respond positively when healthy foods are presented in fun ways, so include different colours, textures and shapes on their plate to hold their interest.

Changing meal locations – and enjoying an occasional outdoor picnic – is another simple way to make mealtimes feel special and fun.

5. Teach kids about the science of food

Teaching children in an age-appropriate way about the foods we eat promotes healthier eating, so:

• encourage kids to grow herbs and veggies so they understand where healthy food comes from: toddlers can harvest produce; older kids can plant and prune

• visit the greengrocer, fishmonger and butcher regularly so kids can see and explore the healthy foods on offer

• talk to toddlers about food in energy terms: “eating wholegrain toast helps you play longer”

• share fun facts with older kids: “fish has a special type of fat called omega-3 that makes us smarter”.

6. Involve kids in cooking

Spark kids’ interest in healthy meals by involving them in food preparation. Let them choose recipes and take on age-appropriate tasks such as mixing and chopping.

When kids help make a meal, they feel proud of their effort, and research shows they’re more likely to try what they’ve created.

It takes about two months to form a habit, so expect resistance along the way. But with perseverance, we can shift kids’ love of processed foods toward healthier choices, helping them establish healthy eating habits for life.

Nick Fuller is the author of Healthy Parents, Healthy Kids – Six Steps to Total Family Wellness.

A/Professor Nick Fuller works for the University of Sydney and RPA Hospital and has received external funding for projects relating to the treatment of overweight and obesity. He is the author and founder of the Interval Weight Loss program, and the author of Healthy Parents, Healthy Kids with Penguin Books.

– ref. My kids only want to eat processed foods. How can I get them eating a healthier and more varied diet? – https://theconversation.com/my-kids-only-want-to-eat-processed-foods-how-can-i-get-them-eating-a-healthier-and-more-varied-diet-242764

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christian Jakob, Director, ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, Monash University

At any given time, about two-thirds of Earth’s surface is covered by clouds. Overall, they make the planet much cooler than it would be without them.

But as Earth gets warmer, mostly due to the rise in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from humans burning fossil fuels, clouds are changing too. And that might already be causing more warming – adding to the greenhouse heat boost, and changing clouds even more.

Over the past few years, the world’s average temperature has increased more than climate scientists were expecting. In our latest research, led by NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, we show that changes in clouds have made a significant contribution to turning up the thermostat.

Clouds and climate

Clouds help to keep Earth cool by reflecting sunlight back out to space before it can reach the ground. But not all clouds are equal.

Shiny, white clouds reflect away more sunlight – especially when they are closer to the equator, in the parts of Earth that receive the most sun. Grey, broken clouds reflect less sunlight, as do clouds closer to the poles where less light falls.

Research published last year showed that Earth has been absorbing more sunlight than the greenhouse effect alone can explain. Clouds were involved, but it wasn’t clear exactly how.

Bright cloud zones are shrinking

Our new study shows what is happening. The areas covered by highly reflective clouds are shrinking. At the same time, the areas containing broken, less reflective clouds are growing.

The net effect is that additional energy from sunlight is reaching Earth’s surface. Here it is absorbed, leading to extra heating.

We also looked at the effect of changes in the properties of the highly reflective clouds, caused by things such as changes in the amount of aerosol pollution in the atmosphere. However, we found these effects are much smaller than the effect of the change in area.

The global picture

In the big picture, Earth’s wind patterns are driven by hot air rising near the equator and the rotation of the planet. This creates huge, looping currents of atmospheric circulation around the globe.

Local weather systems – the kind that determine the location and type of clouds – depend on these major, large-scale wind systems. The major circulation patterns in the atmosphere are changing as a result of global warming.

We found much of the cloud action is taking place at the edges of these major wind systems.

Highly reflective clouds are on the decline in a region near the equator called the intertropical convergence zone, and also two other bands called the storm tracks, which lie between 30 and 40 degrees of latitude.

At the same time the subtropical trade-wind regions, home to ever-present but less reflective broken clouds, are expanding.

A feedback loop

In short, the global warming induced by increased greenhouse gases changes the major wind systems on Earth. This in turn reduces the area of highly reflective clouds, leading to additional warming.

Warming changes wind patterns, which changes cloud patterns, which results in more warming. This is what we call a “positive feedback” in the climate system: warming leads to more warming.

We still have a lot to learn about the details of this feedback loop. Our research will use ongoing satellite-based observations of clouds and how much energy Earth receives and radiates back out to space.

Christian Jakob receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Global warming is changing cloud patterns. That means more global warming – https://theconversation.com/global-warming-is-changing-cloud-patterns-that-means-more-global-warming-259376

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nick William Smith, Associate Investigator in Nutritional Science, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University

The latest update to the New Zealand food composition database, a comprehensive collection of nutrient data collated jointly by Plant & Food Research and the Ministry of Health, brings more than just numbers: it adds insights into culturally important foods and their role in diets.

For the first time, certain traditional foods such as rēwena (Māori bread) and ingredients such as natto, paneer, jackfruit and lentils are included. Alongside these are modern supermarket staples, including lactose-free yoghurts and dairy-free cheeses.

As New Zealand’s population continues to diversify and people’s food choices evolve, the database is keeping pace, ensuring everyone’s plate is represented. The latest update introduces 191 new or updated food records, each with a detailed list of all nutrients, from a wide range of culturally relevant, plant-based and speciality diet foods. These include:

• traditional Māori foods such as rēwena

• ethnic staples, including natto, paneer, black beans

• high-protein yoghurts, dairy-free cheeses and lactose-free options, reflecting market trends.

New Zealanders’ changing food habits

New Zealand’s population is becoming more ethnically diverse. The 2023 census shows nearly a third of New Zealand residents were born overseas and the population of people with Asian ethnicity is the fastest growing in the country. Our supermarkets and food services reflect these changes in their offering.

At the same time, demand is growing for plant-based options, allergen-friendly foods and products tailored to different dietary needs. The database update captures these shifts, offering data on foods that might previously have been overlooked or underestimated.

For example, including rēwena means nutrition professionals working with Māori communities or individuals can offer tailored advice using culturally relevant foods. Including natto or paneer gives dietitians more information to support New Zealanders of Asian or Indian heritage.

The newly added foods weren’t chosen at random. They reflect real changes in the way New Zealanders eat, informed by surveys that reflect the quantities of foods consumed and also how important they are for delivering essential nutrients. The additions also capture new products available in supermarkets or significant changes in recipes.

Foods are collected from around the country to represent our geographically spread population. They are then sent for independent lab analysis to quantify their content of macro (proteins, carbohydrates, fats) and micronutrients (minerals and vitamins).

Including new foods ensures the database stays relevant for a modern, multicultural population and provides accurate nutrition information for consumers, healthcare providers, food businesses and researchers. This facilitates future national surveys to more accurately capture the diversity of New Zealand diets and their implications for population nutrition.

Where these new foods sit in a healthy diet

With the addition of 74 new food components, including detailed profiles of fatty acids and a new method for measuring dietary fibre, the database doesn’t just tell us what is in our food, but also how these foods contribute to nutrition.

Many of the newly included foods are rich in protein, dietary fibre or plant-based nutrients. This is true for rēwena, which includes potato and is higher in protein and dietary fibre than most white breads. Black beans and lentils are affordable sources of protein and iron, while jackfruit offers a low-fat, meat-like texture for vegetarian meals.

The database is reviewed and updated every two years to reflect what people are actually eating. With 2,857 foods and 434 nutrient components now in the system, it offers an unparalleled window into New Zealand’s food supply and provides information to support national nutrition surveys and dietary intake studies.

The data also supports educational resources, such as those produced by organisations that encourage New Zealanders to eat fruits and vegetables.

The food composition database is New Zealand’s most comprehensive source of high-quality nutrient data. It is used by researchers, the food industry, public health agencies and regulators to develop and reformulate products, create accurate nutrition labels, model dietary trends and monitor how changing food habits affect nutrition.

Nick William Smith works for Plant & Food Research.

Carolyn Elizabeth Lister does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. NZ’s changing diet: Māori bread and jackfruit join other new foods in the country’s nutritional database – https://theconversation.com/nzs-changing-diet-maori-bread-and-jackfruit-join-other-new-foods-in-the-countrys-nutritional-database-257791

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexis Shub, Obstetrician & Maternal Fetal Medicine specialist, The University of Melbourne

How Australian pregnant women are tested for gestational diabetes is set to change, with new national guidelines released today.

Changes are expected to lead to fewer diagnoses in women at lower risk, reducing the burden of extra monitoring and intervention. Meanwhile the changes focus care and support towards women and babies who will benefit most.

These latest recommendations form the first update in screening for gestational diabetes in more than a decade, and potentially affect more than 280,000 pregnant women a year across Australia.

The new guidelines, which we have been involved in writing, are released today by the Australasian Diabetes in Pregnancy Society and published in the Medical Journal of Australia.

What is gestational diabetes? Why do we test for it?

Gestational diabetes (also known as gestational diabetes mellitus) is one of the most common medical complications of pregnancy. It affects nearly one in five pregnancies in Australia.

It is defined by abnormally high levels of glucose (sugar) in the blood that are first picked up during pregnancy.

Most of the time gestational diabetes goes away after the birth. But women with gestational diabetes are at least seven times more likely to develop type 2 diabetes later in life.

In Australia, routine screening for gestational diabetes is recommended for all pregnant women. This will continue.

That’s because treatment reduces the risk of poorer pregnancy outcomes. This includes
babies being born very large – a condition called macrosomia – which can lead to difficult births, and a caesarean. Treatment also reduces the risk of pre-eclampsia, when women have high blood pressure and protein in their urine, and other serious pregnancy complications.

Screening for gestational diabetes is also an opportunity to identify women who may benefit from diabetes prevention programs and ways to support their long-term health, including support with nutrition and physical activity.

Why is testing changing?

Most women benefit from detection and treatment. However, for some women, a diagnosis can have negative impacts. This often relates to how care is delivered.

Women have described feeling shame and stigma after the diagnosis. Others report challenges accessing the care and support they need during pregnancy. This may include access to specialist doctors, allied health professionals and clinics. Some women have restricted their diet in an unhealthy way, without appropriate supervision by a health professional. Some have had to change their preferred maternity care provider or location of birth because their pregnancy is now considered higher risk.

So we must diagnose the condition in women when the benefits outweigh the potential costs.

When are blood sugar levels too high?

Diagnosing gestational diabetes is based on having blood glucose levels above a certain threshold.

However, there is no clear level above which the risk of complications starts to increase. And determining the best thresholds to identify who does, and who does not, have gestational diabetes has been subject to much research and debate.

Globally, screening approaches and diagnostic criteria vary substantially. There are differences in who is recommended to be screened, when in pregnancy screening should occur, which tests should be used, and what the diagnostic glucose levels should be.

So, what changes?

The new recommendations are the result of reviewing up-to-date evidence with input from a wide range of professional and consumer groups.

Screening will continue

All pregnant women who don’t already have a diagnosis of pre-pregnancy diabetes, or gestational diabetes, will still be recommended screening at between 24 and 28 weeks’ gestation. They’ll still have an oral glucose tolerance test, a measure of how the body processes sugar. The test involves fasting overnight, and having a blood test in the morning before drinking a sugary drink. Then there are two more blood tests over two hours. However, fewer women will have this test twice in their pregnancy.

Changes mean more targeted care

The following changes mean health services should be able to reorient resources to ensure women have access to the care they need to support healthier pregnancies, including early support for women who need it most:

• women with risk factors of existing, undiagnosed diabetes (such as a higher body-mass index or BMI, or a previous large baby) will be screened in the first trimester, with a single, non-fasting blood test (known as HbA1c)

• fewer women will have an oral glucose tolerance test early in the pregnancy, ideally between ten and 14 weeks gestation. This early testing will be reserved for women with specific risk factors, such as gestational diabetes in a previous pregnancy, or a high level on the HbA1c test

• women will only be diagnosed if their blood glucose level is above new, higher cut-off points for the oral glucose tolerance test, for tests conducted early or later in the pregnancy.

Which tests do I need?

These changes will be implemented over coming months. So women are encouraged to speak to their maternity care provider about how the changes apply to them.

Alexis Shub is a board director of the Australasian Diabetes in Pregnancy Society. She has received research funding from ADIPS.

Matthew Hare has received research funding from the NHMRC, MRFF, Diabetes Australia, Australian Diabetes Society, Royal Australasian College of Physicians, Viertel Charitable Foundation and Australian government Department of Health. He has received honoraria for consultancies, steering committees and invited talks from Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, Boehringer Ingelheim and AstraZeneca. He is president and board chair of the Australasian Diabetes in Pregnancy Society, and a member of the Australian Diabetes Society and Endocrine Society of Australia.

Susan de Jersey has received research funding from the NHMRC, MRFF, Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital Foundation, Diabetes Australia, Metro North Health. She is a member of Dietitians Australia, Australian Diabetes Educators Association, and is vice chair and board director of the Australasian Diabetes in Pregnancy Society.

– ref. How pregnant women are tested for gestational diabetes is changing. Here’s what this means for you – https://theconversation.com/how-pregnant-women-are-tested-for-gestational-diabetes-is-changing-heres-what-this-means-for-you-259260

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milton Speer, Visiting Fellow, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney

Unexpected severe turbulence injured crew and passengers on a Qantas Boeing 737 during descent at Brisbane on May 4 2024. The subsequent Australian Transport Safety Bureau investigation suggested the severity of the turbulence caught the captain by surprise.

This is not an isolated event. Thunderstorms featuring severe wind gusts such as violent updrafts and downbursts are hazardous to aircraft. Downbursts in particular have been known to cause many serious accidents.

Our new research suggests global warming is increasing the frequency and intensity of wind gusts from thunderstorm “downbursts”, with serious consequences for air travel.

We used machine learning techniques to identify the climate drivers causing more thunderstorm downbursts. Increased heat and moisture over eastern Australia turned out to be the key ingredients.

The findings suggest air safety authorities and airlines in eastern Australia must be more vigilant during takeoff and landing in a warming world.

Warm, moist air spells trouble for planes

Global warming increases the amount of water vapour in the lower atmosphere. That’s because 1°C of warming allows the atmosphere to hold 7% more water vapour.

The extra moisture typically comes from adjacent warmer seas. It evaporates from the surface of the ocean and feeds clouds.

Increased heat and water vapour fuels stronger thunderstorms. So climate change is expected to increase thunderstorm activity over eastern Australia

For aircraft, the main problem with thunderstorms is the risk of hazardous, rapid changes in wind strength and direction at low levels.

Small yet powerful

Small downbursts, several kilometres wide, are especially dangerous. These “microbursts” can cause abrupt changes in wind gust speed and direction, creating turbulence that suddenly moves the plane in all directions, both horizontally and vertically.

Microburst wind gusts can be extremely strong. Brisbane airport recorded a microburst wind gust at 157km per hour in November 2016. Three planes on the tarmac were extensively damaged.

On descent or ascent, aircraft encountering microbursts can experience sudden, unexpected losses or gains in altitude. This has caused numerous aircraft accidents in the past. Microbursts will become increasingly problematic in a warming climate.

Microburst analysis and prediction

Microbursts are very difficult to predict, because they are so small. So we used machine learning to identify the environmental factors most conducive to the formation of microbursts and associated severe wind gusts.

We accessed observational data from the Bureau of Meteorology’s extensive archives. Then we applied eight different machine learning techniques to find the one that worked best.

Machine learning is a field of study in artificial intelligence using algorithms and statistical models to enable computers to learn from data without explicit programming. It enables systems to identify patterns, make predictions and improve performance over time as they take in more information.

We found atmospheric conditions in eastern Australia are increasingly favouring the development of stronger, more frequent thunderstorm microbursts.

We investigated a microburst outbreak from a storm front in 2018. It produced severe surface wind gusts at six regional airports in New South Wales: Bourke, Walgett, Coonamble, Moree, Narrabri and Gunnedah.

Regional airports in Australia and around the world often use small aircraft. Small planes with 4–50 passenger seats are more vulnerable to the strong, even extreme, wind gusts spawned by thunderstorm microbursts.

Widespread consequences

Our extensive regional case study identified the weather patterns that create severe thunderstorms in eastern Australia during the warmer months.

High cloud water content creates a [downward force] [https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/11215] in the cloud. This force induces a descending air current. When the heavier air reaches the ground, wind gusts spray out in multiple directions.

These wind gusts endanger aircraft during takeoff and landing, because rapid wind shifts from tail winds to head winds can cause the aircraft to dangerously gain or lose altitude.

Our analysis highlights the elevated aviation risks of increased atmospheric turbulence from thunderstorm microbursts across eastern Australia.

Smaller aircraft at inland regional airports in southeastern Australia are especially vulnerable. But these sudden microburst-generated wind gusts will require monitoring by major east coast airports, such as Sydney and Brisbane.

Beware of heightened microburst activity

Flying has long been recognised as a very safe mode of travel, with an accident rate of just 1.13 per million flights.

However, passenger numbers worldwide have increased dramatically, implying even a small risk increase could affect a large number of travellers.

Previous research into climate-related risks to air travel has tended to focus on high-altitude cruising dangers, such as clear air turbulence and jet stream instability. In contrast, there has been less emphasis on dangers during low-level ascent and descent.

Our research is among the first to detail the heightened climate risk to airlines from thunderstorm microbursts, especially during takeoff and landing. Airlines and air safety authorities should anticipate more strong microbursts. More frequent wind gust turbulence from microbursts is to be expected over eastern Australia, in our ongoing warming climate.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Freak wind gusts made worse by climate change threaten airline passenger safety – https://theconversation.com/freak-wind-gusts-made-worse-by-climate-change-threaten-airline-passenger-safety-258823

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ming Gao, Research Fellow of East Asia Studies, Lund University

One of the most sought-after items of 2025 isn’t a designer handbag or the latest tech gadget. It’s a plush elf with a snaggle-toothed grin.

Labubu (拉布布) is a global sensation. From David Beckham and Rihanna to Dua Lipa and Blackpink’s Lisa, celebrities – and even members of the Thai royal family – have been spotted showcasing their Labubu collections.

Created in 2015 by Hong Kong artist Kasing Lung for his picture-book series The Monsters, Labubu gained mass popularity when toy company Pop Mart began releasing it as blind-box collectables in 2019. The toys are often sold in these blind-boxes, where people don’t know what make they’ve bought until after opening the box.

The niche designer toy has since spiralled into a multi billion-dollar obsession. Plushies sell out within minutes, fans queue for hours, and rare editions like the human-sized mint-green-coloured Labubu have fetched over A$230,000 at auction.

Labubu isn’t just a toy. It’s a glimpse of how China’s long-awaited soft power is beginning to take shape in unexpected ways.

China’s accidental soft power icon?

For years, the Chinese government has tried to cultivate a positive image abroad through the Belt and Road Initiative, introducing visa-free entry to boost tourism, and promoting homegrown brands.

None of these efforts have matched the spontaneous global appeal of this small plush creature. Unlike Japan’s government-funded “Cool Japan” initiative launched in 2010, or South Korea’s highly coordinated export of creative industries, Labubu succeeded without central planning. It went viral organically: fanned by fandoms, fuelled by TikTok and amplified by celebrity endorsements.

Now, China is starting to look “cool” to the outside world.

Pop Mart’s blind-box sales model taps into the same reward mechanisms as online gaming. More than buying a toy, it’s about the thrill of unboxing the rarest edition, the social status of ownership, and the resale value of a seemingly childish product. This cultural product is emotionally charged and economically strategic.

For China, Labubu represents an unintentional yet potent form of soft power: a quirky figure that makes the country feel playful, creative and emotionally accessible.

In an era when global perceptions of China are often shaped by geopolitics, surveillance, and authoritarianism, Labubu seems to offer something different – something disarming.

How Japan and Korea use cultural exports

Japan, long celebrated for its exports of anime, fashion, and food culture, launched its “Cool Japan” strategy in 2010 to formalise and promote its creative industries abroad.

The initiative helped amplify global interest in sectors such as anime and cuisine but it often struggled with bureaucratic inefficiency, market misjudgements and unclear performance metrics.

Many of the country’s cultural successes – from Pokémon and Studio Ghibli to ramen and izakaya – were largely driven by market forces and fan communities, rather than by the government.

South Korea provides a more recent, effective model. The Korean Wave, or hallyu, has been heavily supported by state investment and infrastructure.

From the film Parasite to global icons such as K-Pop band BTS, South Korea’s cultural output has earned international acclaim and helped rebrand the nation on the world stage.

Importantly, it was a case of soft power being harnessed intentionally and strategically, with entertainment at the forefront of foreign policy.

Labubu represents a third model: accidental soft power born from a commercial ecosystem in China increasingly focused on intellectual property (IP), lifestyle branding and consumer-driven trends.

The emotional politics of toys

Beyond its political implications, the Labubu craze reflects wider shifts in global consumer culture. Today’s toy market is no longer just for children.

The adult “kidult” sector, driven by nostalgia, comfort-seeking, and collectability, is rising.

The frenzy over Labubu is part of this trend, where millennials and Gen Z buyers invest in emotionally charged objects as expressions of identity, status and belonging.

At the same time, Labubu represents a growing intersection between play and finance. The resale market treats plushies like speculative assets. Their scarcity creates value; their emotional resonance creates demand.

It’s capitalism with a fuzzy face.

Not everything is cuddly. In cities like London or Seoul, Pop Mart was forced to suspend sales after scuffles broke out among fans competing to buy the toys. And a surge in global counterfeits has raised growing concerns over IP protection and consumer trust.

The rise of China’s soft power

Labubu may look like a mischievous little elf, but it carries serious cultural weight.

It reflects a China that is no longer just a producer of goods, but a producer of desire.

It’s tempting to see Labubu as a fad like fidget spinners, Beanie Babies, or Tamagotchis. But it signals something deeper: a shift in how Chinese cultural products can evoke emotion, status and aspiration on a global scale.

This tiny plush toy took nearly a decade to become a global sensation. China’s hopes of fully realising its soft power potential may take even longer. But if Labubu is any indication, the way forward may depend less on state-led campaigns and more on organic, bottom-up cultural momentum.

Ming Gao receives funding from the Swedish Research Council. This research was produced with support from the Swedish Research Council grant “Moved Apart” (nr. 2022-01864). Ming Gao is a member of Lund University Profile Area: Human Rights.

– ref. Labubu plushies aren’t just toys. They’re a brand new frontier for Chinese soft power – https://theconversation.com/labubu-plushies-arent-just-toys-theyre-a-brand-new-frontier-for-chinese-soft-power-259146

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Parmeter, Research Scholar, Middle East Studies, Australian National University

After prevaricating about whether the United States would enter Israel’s war on Iran, President Donald Trump finally made a decision.

Early Sunday, US warplanes struck three of Iran’s nuclear sites at Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow, where the Iranians have a uranium enrichment plant buried about 80 metres beneath a mountain.

These strikes have to be viewed as part of an overall continuum that began with the Gaza war following Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and then continued with Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah (the Iran-backed militant group in Lebanon) and the fall of the Iran-backed Assad regime in Syria.

Iran has never been weaker than it is now. And when Trump said it may take two weeks for him to decide whether to bomb Iran, the Israelis likely pushed him to act sooner.

We can assume there was a lot of Israeli pressure on Trump to use the massive ordnance penetrators, the 30,000-pound (13,600-kilogram) “bunker buster” bombs that only the US can deploy with its B2 bombers.

Now that Trump has taken the significant step of entering the US in yet another Middle East war, where could things go from here? There are a few possible scenarios.

Iran strikes back

The Iranians know they don’t have the strength to take on the US, and that the Americans can do enormous damage to their country and even put the Iranian regime’s stability at risk.

This is always the prime consideration of of the clerical regime led by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei – everything else is subordinate to that.

To gauge Iran’s possible reaction, we can look at the how it responded to the first Trump administration’s assassination of the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ elite Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, in January 2020.

Iran said there would be a major reaction, but all it did was launch a barrage of missiles at two American bases in Iraq, which caused no US fatalities and very little damage. After that token retaliation, Iran said the matter was closed.

Iran’s reaction to the new US strikes will likely be along these lines. It probably won’t want to get into a tit-for-tat with the US by launching attacks against American facilities in the region. Trump has promised to respond with force:

Iran, a bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier.

It’s also unclear how long Iran will be able to prosecute this war. This depends largely on how many ballistic missiles and launchers it has left.

There are various estimates as to how many ballistic missiles Iran may have remaining in its stockpiles. It was believed to have about 2,000 missiles capable of reaching Israel at the start of the war. Some estimates say Iran has fired 700 of them; others say around 400. Whatever the number is, its stockpiles are dwindling quickly.

Israel has also destroyed about a third of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers. If Israel is able to destroy all of them, Iran would have very limited ability to fight back.

Iran backs down

Before the US got involved in the conflict, Iran said it was prepared to negotiate, but it wouldn’t do so while Israel was still attacking.

So, one scenario is that some sort of compromise can now be worked out, in which Israel announces a ceasefire and Iran and the US agree to resume negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear program.

The big problem is that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he doesn’t trust the negotiating process and he doesn’t want to stop Israel’s military actions until all of Iran’s nuclear facilities have been completely destroyed. He’s also been bombing Iran’s oil terminals and gas facilities to put even more pressure on the regime.

But the regime has shown itself to be incredibly determined not to lose face. It was under great pressure at different times during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s and never considered surrendering until a US missile mistakenly took down an Iranian passenger jet, killing 290 people.

Iran then agreed to a UN-brokered ceasefire. But the Iran-Iraq war lasted eight years, causing an estimated one million deaths. And when the then-supreme leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, agreed to the ceasefire, he said it was “worse than drinking poison”.

Given the state of Iran’s military capabilities, Khamenei, the current supreme leader, might surrender simply to try to preserve the regime. But this would be quite a climbdown as far as he’s concerned, and he has been very obstinate in the past.

The regime is very unpopular, but the Iranian people, in my experience, are strongly patriotic – loyal to their country, if not the regime. Though it’s difficult to gauge opinion in a country of 90 million people, a lot of Iranians would not want to be ordered to do anything by the US or Israel, and would rather fight on.

Netanyahu has said he wants to create the conditions for the Iranian people to rise up against the regime.

But it’s worth bearing in mind that the opposite of autocracy is not necessarily democracy. It could possibly be chaos. Iran has a number of different ethnic groups and there may be huge disagreements over what should take the place of the clerical regime, were it to fall.

At this stage, the regime will probably be able to hold together. And even if Khameini were to die suddenly, the regime will likely be able to quickly replace him.

Though we don’t know his probable successor, the regime has had plenty of time to plan for this. Those in senior positions will also know that a post-Khamenei succession struggle really would put the regime at risk.

The US engagement is limited

According to the new polling by The Economist and YouGov, released on June 17, 60% of Americans were opposed to joining the conflict between Israel and Iran, with just 16% in favour. Among Republicans, 53% opposed military action.

So, these strikes were not an obviously popular move among Americans at this stage. However, if this is an isolated event and succeeds in bringing a swift end to the war, Trump will probably be applauded by a majority of Americans.

If the US has to go back with more bombers – or there are serious attacks on US interests in the region – there could be more adverse reactions among Americans.

Another question is whether Iran’s 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium have been destroyed in the US attack.

If it hasn’t been destroyed, and depending how much damage has been done to its centrifuges, Iran may be able to reconstruct its nuclear program relatively quickly. And it could have more incentive to further enrich this uranium to 90% purity, or weapons-grade level, to build a nuclear device.

Ian Parmeter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The US has entered the Israel-Iran war. Here are 3 scenarios for what might happen next – https://theconversation.com/the-us-has-entered-the-israel-iran-war-here-are-3-scenarios-for-what-might-happen-next-259509