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NewsRoom_Digest for May 26 2016

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For Budget Day we have a one-stop page for releases at http://newsroom.co.nz/categories/budget

Today’s edition of NewsRoom_Digest features 2 resourceful links of the day and the politics pulse from Thursday 26th of May. It is best viewed on a desktop screen.

NEWSROOM_MONITOR 

Noteworthy stories in the current news cycle include: the Finance Minister Bill English delivering his seventh Budget at Parliament; dairy giant Fonterra announcing an increased milk solid price of $4.25 per kg, slightly below the $4.50 – $4.80 analysts predicted for the upcoming season; and the country’s power grid operator, Transpower predicting a massive shake-up in the electricity sector, including the failure of some line companies. 

POLITICS PULSE

Government: Housing momentum to be maintained; Criminals hit by billion-dollar hole in pocket; Bowel screening programme roll-out; $36m for warmer, healthier homes;Health investment increases to a record $16.1b;$2.1b investment in public infrastructure; $652.1m Social Investment for vulnerable NZers;Govt books show rising surpluses, falling debt;Govt books show rising surpluses, falling debt;Budget 2016: Overview;Investing in a growing economy;Budget supports growing economy;ETS one-for-two subsidy to be phased out$882.5m investment in school property; $96m for legal aid and community law centres;Government invests in New Zealand’s security;$258m to boost social housing; $208m investment boost for Justice;$357.9m invested in key transport projects;Annual education investment to exceed $11b; Budget 2016: $32m extra for Bay of Plenty DHB; $100m boost to develop Auckland housing;Extra support for most at-risk students;New $100m fund to improve water quality; Financial help boosted for low-income earners; $111.5m to support NZers into employment; $347.8m for care and protection of young people; $299.2m in additional funding for Police; $16m new funding to tackle wilding conifers; Extra $19.7m for Crown prosecutions;Minister supporting Greater Christchurch Regeneration;$69.8m towards eliminating bovine TB;Defence Force receives $300.9m new funding;$761.4m for an Innovative New Zealand; Additional Budget support for Pacific peoples; Tobacco excise to rise 10 per cent per annum; $857m to deliver a modern tax system; $11.6m new funding for the arts; $49m to strengthen Whānau-centred services;Extra $6.2m to increase Civil Defence capability; Low-risk travellers streamlined at the border; SPEECH: Hekia Parata – Shifting the Levers of Education

ACT Party: The biggest thing that’s not in the Budget;Budget 2016 splashes out on fat corporate welfare cheques; Budget increases taxes on those in need

Greens: Will National’s eighth budget finally show some vision today?; Green Party Co-leader James Shaw’s 2016 Budget Speech: Time to change the Government; Budget cuts continue National’s miserly underfunding of DOC; Shock school funding freeze means parents pay more

Labour:Fall in Police investigations funding must be fixed; Minister won’t fess up on wrong figures; Labour Bill Would Back Kiwi Jobs;John Key fails middle New Zealand with no fix for housing crisis, more underfunding of health;Sticking Plaster Budget fails the test

Māori Party: $40m boost for Whānau Ora;$4m for extending micro-financing;$17.9m to support Māori landowners;$5m to promote Māori voter participation; Māori Party Continues To Support Housing Solutions; $34.6m to support te reo Māori revival; $4m to commemorate New Zealand Wars

New Zealand First:Bennett Resettles Homeless In Jobless Towns;Address in Reply: Budget 2016;National tells many NZers to ‘get stuffed’; Budget 2016: Bowel Screening Programme Far Too Little, Far Too Late

NZ National Party:Budget 2016 a big boost for Technology Valley

United Future Party:Dunne calls for 52 weeks of parental leave; More Funding For Intelligence Services Must Come At A Price; A Boring Budget That Identifies The Right Targets

LINKS OF THE DAY

BUDGET 2016: Budget for the Government of New Zealand was announced today.More details at:http://www.treasury.govt.nz/budget/2016

RBNZ LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT: The Reserve Bank today published a Bulletin article that explains how the Bank manages liquidity in the banking system. Effective management of liquidity plays a crucial role in New Zealand’s banking system. Read more: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research-and-publications/reserve-bank-bulletin/2016/rbb2016-79-09

And that’s our sampling of “news you can use” for Thursday 26th of May.

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Tony Alexander’s New Zealand Economic Overview May 26 2016

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Economic Analysis by Tony Alexander. Tony-Alexander-BNZ-1As promised by the Finance Minister there were no big surprises in today’s Budget, the numbers look good with small though growing fiscal surpluses projected, growth averaging near 3%, unemployment falling to 4.6%, and interest rates not rising until 2018/19. The Budget Speech referenced an upcoming National Policy Statement on Urban Development which will direct councils to allow more housing and measure the impact on house prices of their decisions. Were existing efforts to boost housing supply working such a statement would not be necessary, and the factors which have met our expectations of insufficient supply growth are so strong that no statement is likely to change where things go from here. In fact just this week Wellington Council said they have failed to reach any of their housing supply targets for two years and see no chance of meeting their full five year target. The upshot is continuing upward pressure on prices and a steadily rising resolve behind doors at the Reserve Bank to bring a new hammer down on the pace of growth in lending – not just in Auckland perhaps but also elsewhere. Investors should pay heed to the general lack of housing shortages in most parts of the country outside Auckland and Queenstown as they contemplate their regional investment and building plans these next three years.

Click here or continue reading below for the full analysis.

No Game Changers The Finance Minister released the government’s annual Budget this week which for the uninitiated is basically an accounting exercise in which spending is offset against revenue streams to produce projected deficits or surpluses, along with lots of information on debt levels and financing, the outlook and plans for the next ten years, and assessment of risks facing the government accounts along with an updated outlook for the economy from Treasury. The Budget also contains details of new policies, though it has been the practice for perhaps a couple of decades now to announce almost all new spending measures in the weeks leading up to the late-May event. Surprises tend to be few and far between, though last year’s boost to benefit levels was an unexpected development. As a macroeconomist my interest is not in the minutia, important as hundreds of things are to particular groups, but the overall package and whether it suggests a different outlook for the pace of growth in employment, GDP etc., inflation, interest rates, housing, and the robustness of the government’s accounts. In that regard, while the likes of the already announced tax changes for SMEs and money for hi-tech startups are wonderful and at the margin will make running a small business easier in New Zealand, they don’t justify lifting growth expectations unless you are silly enough to deal in growth numbers two out from the decimal point. The same goes for extra funding for apprenticeships, health research, tourism, and so on. All good stuff but no game-changers. Nonetheless, the Innovation New Zealand package of an extra $761mn in operational spending over the next four years is positive, as is the Public Infrastructure Package totalling $697mn. The Health package is the biggest of the four packages getting an extra $2.2bn over four years, with the final package being the Social Investment Package which gets $641mn. Capital spending for the Public Infrastructure Package adds another $1.4bn. The measures announced with give a small positive fiscal impulse to the economy this year then small negatives after that, but with none of the numbers being large enough to alter the positive outlook which we and Treasury have for the economy. They see GDP growth in the coming years of 2.9% for the year to June 2017 then after that 3.2%, 2.8%, and 2.5%. They see no tightening of monetary policy until the 2018/19 year and the unemployment rate trending down to 4.6% come 2020. Fiscal surpluses as percentages of GDP are projected at 0.3% for 2015/16, then 0.3%, 0.9%, 1.7%, and 2.2%. Housing It is popular amongst those who fail to understand the factors pushing Auckland house prices higher and/or have for years incorrectly predicted big declines, to blame speculators for the surge in prices. However grouping all investors into the speculators’ camp gives an incorrect guide to the true make-up of the many people purchasing properties to rent out. The results of a survey by Mortgage Choice in Australia were released this week showing that whereas two years ago 20% of people buying investment properties were first home buyers now the proportion is one-third. These “rentvestors” have become a key driving force behind parts of the Australian housing market and we suspect that the same is happening in New Zealand going by anecdotal reports. It seems reasonable to assume that these rentvestors are not in it for a quick capital gain but a medium-term hold in order to build up a bigger deposit from anticipated price rises and principal repayment and enhance flexibility in their work location early in their career – as in not being tied down to one place through home ownership which can reduce effective functioning of the labour market. Another group of we suspect long-term holders is older people who have built up cash assets which they are looking to invest in order to earn more than simply leaving the money in the bank. These investors have above average deposits so are not much affected by deposit size rules and they are not speculating in order to earn a lump sum which will then go back into a bank to earn very little. They want something which will yield income over a long period with reasonable chance of capital gain. Maybe some will buy an investment property with their offspring. Then there are the people acting on warnings about the need to build wealth for retirement by doing exactly that in the form of housing assets. These are also quite likely long-term investors. Plus there are the people who are pursuing housing investment as a business. It would be great to have data in hand telling us the roles being played by these four groups of investors along with foreign buyers and true buy and flick speculators targeted by the two year bright line test which clearly is having no sustained measurable impact. Without such data the chances that policy can be developed and effectively implemented so that goals around targets like home ownership, social housing provision, and financial system stability can be met are very small – speculative in fact. We need data, not kneejerk analysis and potentially faulty policies. The Solution People are always talking about finding a solution to the Auckland housing crisis – usually without specifying which particular crisis they are talking about. Sometimes affordability, sometimes commuting distance, sometimes social housing and emergency housing, sometimes prices, sometimes rents. Is there a solution? If I walk up to someone attending one of my talks and stab my pen through their hand, what is the solution? Its the same for Auckland. The situation is already at hand with “damage” registered and nothing will radically change things unless truly stringent policies are introduced such as removing all zoning rules. All of them. And a message was provided this week for all those people in other parts of the country who say the government needs to force people to live elsewhere in New Zealand to use their infrastructure and to ease the burden in Auckland. Sorry, according to reports today not even the homeless offered up to $5,000 want to live in your towns. And those Aucklander investors flooding into the regions seeking yield and smaller mortgages should also take note of this development. Your assumptions about regional population growth are probably too optimistic – just as they were last cycle, the cycle before that, the one before that and so on. Auckland is where over one-third of New Zealand’s population want to live. And just like farmers who with open eyes accept the challenges thrown up by their land, weather, animals, markets, pests and diseases, these Aucklanders knowingly accept the challenge of managing dense traffic, high house prices, and high numbers of people per household. For your guide, the Budget contained an extra $100mn to free up Crown land for development, extra assistance for social housing, and a warning to councils. In his Budget Speech the Finance Minister referenced something called the National Policy Statement on Urban Development which is “upcoming”:

“This will direct councils to allow more housing development where necessary and to measure the impact of their decisions on house prices.”

NZ Dollar The NZD has risen close to 93 Aussie cents because the AUD has fallen about 8% against the US dollar after the release of weaker than expected inflation numbers a few weeks ago. Expectations are high that Australia’s 1.75% cash rate will be cut again as the RBA tries to stimulate growth and create extra inflation. The falling AUD has however dragged the NZD lower against the greenback so we now sit near 68 cents compared with near 70 cents five weeks ago. There has also been some movement down in the NZD/USD exchange rate caused by rising expectations that US monetary policy will be tightened again soon, perhaps in July. Against the Euro the NZD sits near 60.0 centimes which is little changed from one, four and eight weeks ago. The risk is that the NZD rises against a Euro depressed by continuing money printing by the ECB and a deteriorating outlook for the French economy if not society as people strike and paralyse the country over the President’s now heavily watered down policy to open up the labour market and provide a route for millions of disaffected youth to find and grow in gainful employment. France’s economic system is one designed to protect those already in work which means change as a response to alterations in consumer demand and competition from offshore is slow to come. Slow growth has become locked in and this means that right at the heart of the EU gaps are opening up between core members just as they have opened up with the less developed economies near the Mediterranean Sea. Each year France looks less and less like Germany and the UK and more and more like Venezuela but without the hyperinflation. Against the Yen the NZD also risks rising from current levels as the economy has barely grown in two years, and government debt is huge and growing as the population ages and shrinks. The Prime Minister this week at the G7 meeting is begging leaders of other G7 countries to show support for yet another wasteful fiscal stimulus package (number 17 since 1990 we believe). Money is being printed with no end-date to the printing programme specified, and further lowering interest rates into negative territory cannot be ruled out. Basically our comments about the NZ dollar’s prospects are the same as they have been since 2009. Most of the rest of the world has major economic problems while our economy is not just doing okay but very strongly underpinned by construction, tourism, migration and even manufacturing, our economy is flexible thus able to respond to the shocks which always come along, and the government accounts are in good order. If I Were A Borrower What Would I Do? Fix 2 – 3 years with maybe 25% floating.
The Weekly Overview is written by Tony Alexander, Chief Economist at the Bank of New Zealand. The views expressed are my own and do not purport to represent the views of the BNZ. To receive the Weekly Overview each Thursday night please sign up at www.tonyalexander.co.nz To change your address or unsubscribe please click the link at the bottom of your email. Tony.alexander@bnz.co.nz
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Standoff in PNG: Students take on Prime Minister Peter O’Neill

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Report by David Robie. This article was first published on Café Pacific

An NBC News report on May 17 – a useful backgrounder, but much has happened since.Prime Minister Peter O’Neill’s "I will not resign" reply to UPNG and Unitech student presidents over their "stand down" petition – May 23 By Bal Kama Students at the University of Papua New Guinea are the latest in a long list of those in the firing line for denouncing the leadership of PNG’s seemingly

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